PAGE_HEADER

This is a 10* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Flordia/Houston.

I had Houston and the "over" in the same game in the Final Four. Because I played early, I got a win on the over. Some would have lost, others pushed. Either way, I did go on to cash my 3-game Final 4 Report.

We have a contrast of styles here, with Florida's up-tempo offense going up against Houston's smothering defense.

The old saying that "defense wins championships" couldn't be more apt in this particular matchup in my opinion.

Duke was shutdown over the final few minutes of that game and I think LJ Cryer and company will now carry over that defensive confidence here agains the Gators.

Both teams have playmakers, but fatigue is now also an issue for each side.

Florida went UNDER the number for the first time in the playoffs this year, and everything points to another lower-scoring defensive battle for all the reasons listed above in the National Championship Game as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Houston/Duke.

I just got through writing how incredible Houston's defense is, and now I'm on the OVER as well in the same contest (note, this pick is part of a three-game report that includes plays on Auburn, Houston and the OVER in Houston/Duke.) 

The Cougars strength, beyond the obvious, is their ability to play any "style" of game (as evidenced in the high-scoring 81-76 win over Gonzaga), and that's going to be key here in keeping pace with the Blue Devils at times.

These teams played last March 29th and Duke won 54-51. Expect a much faster-pace this time around though.

This can still be a lower-scoring game and go OVER this lower number, and that's exactly what I expect.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston.

The strengths/weaknesses are well known for each side. With nearly 65% of the early public money on the favorite, this one naturally appeals to my contrarian nature.

The Cougars still seems like the more complete team to me, and their defense looked amazing in the 69-50 win over Tennessee. 

Duke also looked great in its victory over Alabama. I had the Blue Devils in that one.

But the Tide have a terrible defense. Houston is just so elite on that end of the floor, that I believe the Cougars have a legit shot at winning this one outright.

In another game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Auburn.

These teams have similar records and play similar styles. With a spread like this, clealry the oddsmakers agree.

Florida looked a bit shaky against Texas Tech last time out, and was lucky to escape with the victory as a 6.5-point favorite.

Auburn's defense looked great in the 70-64 win over Michigan State, as the Tigers were never in trouble.

In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is AUBURN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Butler/Boise State.

Butler got by Utah 86-84 as a 3.5-point underdog in the Opening round of the CBC. 

Both teams came in well-rested with three weeks of rest in between.

But now I think we'll see a much slower pace here.

Boise State went on to annihilate George Washington 89-59. 

These teams played in November of 2023, and Butler won 70-56. 

I foresee a similar final combined score here now in the second round of the CBC.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Chattanooga.

The Mocs roared back from a 13-point halftime deficit to beat Bradley to advance. Chattanooga won the Southern Conference regular season, but it got eliminated by Furman in the Tournament. 

Keep your eyes on Honor Huff, who is averaging 15.3 PPG. 

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers finished third in the A-10. Miles Rubin had 18 points and nine rebounds in their ten-point win to advance.

Getting points here seems like a gift. The Mocs have the offense to easily win this game outright and really test this Ramblers defense.

While I believe the outright win is a very real possibility, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with CHATTANOOGA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CROWN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Nebraska/ASU.

Nebraska lost 83-68 to Iowa on March 9th in its last game, while Arizona State lost 71-66 to K-State back on March 11th.

The Cornhuskers have interestingly seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last when playing with 7 or more days rest following a SU/ATS home loss vs. a conference opponent. The were one of three teams to miss the Big Ten Tournament, so it's redemption time here. Overall they averaged 75.4 PPG, while allowing 72.9.

ASU averaged 73.9 and conceded 76.5. 

But with each team pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything points to this total flying OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ELITE EIGHT TOY on the OVER MSU/Auburn.

These teams are battling for the top spot in the South Region and in my opinion, everything points to a "shootout," rather than a slower defensive battle. 

MSU advanced with a 73-70 win over Ole Miss, while Auburn got past Michigan 78-75.

While these teams have been playing to some lower-scoring battles in this Tournament, tonight's total is now just a bit too low in my opinion.

Expect a faster paced game to lead to more points. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ELITE EIGHT GOY on Duke.

I think the No. 1 seed will win and cover here in the Elite Eight.

Cooper Flag and company will be hard to slow down, and despite coming off an NCAA-record 25 three-pointers made in its Sweet 16 victory, I think this is a bad matchup for Alabama finally.

The Tide struggle defensively, and this elite Blue Devils side is going to be able to grind and expose this weakness. 

Duke has a balanced offense and a superior defense and I say that Alabama's Cinderalla run finally comes to an end vs. the No. 1 seed.

Lay the points, the play is on the BLUE DEVILS.

Good luck, NP

My 10* SWEET 16 TOY is on the OVER Ole Miss/Michigan State.

The best finish ever for Ole Miss in the NCAA Tournament was back in 2001 when it bowed out in the Sweet 16. 

The Rebels though are rolling after wins over UNC and Iowa State. The Rebels played to a defensive affair in the win over UNC, but they showed off their offensive prowess in the victory over Iowa State. I believe Ole Miss will keep that offensive momentum rolling here in the Round of 16.

Tom Izzo and the Spartans most recently were in the Sweet 16 two years ago, but it's been six years since MSU has advanced past this point. 

Ole Miss already proved that it can score against tough defenses, and with the underdog setting the pace in my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* SWEET 16 GOY on Maryland.

The No. 1 seed Florida Gators survived a scare against the two-time defending champs in the Round of 32, but they survived and have moved on to now face No. 4 seed Maryland on Thursday. 

Maryland also held on for dear life in its 72-71 win over Colorado State.

The Terps are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016, while Florida is back for the first time since 2017.

These teams are evenly matched in my opinion. They are according to the KenPom rankings as well.

Florida owns the second-best offense and 11th-best defense, while Maryland had the 23rd-ranked offense, and sixth-ranked defense.

The Gators have looked sloppy so far, averaging 12 turnovers over their first two games.

Both teams are loaded with talent and this one really does have the feel of being an "any given Sunday" type of contest.

And so, in a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is MARYLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NIT QUARTERFINAL TOY on the UNDER Chattanooga/Bradley.

Chattanooga is 26-9, while Bradley is 28-8. 

The Braves have won four of their last five, including a 75-57 victory over George Mason last time out. Duke Deen is Bradley's leading scorer with 13.5 PPG. The Braves though looked very impressive on the defensive end and I'm expecting them to carry that momentum over here (note that over their last five games, the Braves have averaged 66.8 PPG.) 

Chattanooga is off the 87-72 win over Dayton, getting 26 points from Honor Huff. Huff averages 14.3 PPG to lead the way for the Mocs. 

The Mocs, clearly, like to push the pace, but the Braves defense is pretty good. 

This is a toss up as far as the side is concerned, but I say the O/U line is now way too high. 

With Bradley looking to control the pace of this one from the outset, I believe this total will stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CBI GOY on Army.

I'm not calling for an outright victory here or anything, but I do think this one will be a "nail-biter." Because of that, I'm grabbing the poitns.

This CBI quarterfinal game is being played at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach Florida. 

The Black Knights advanced by beating Elon by a score of 83-78 yesterday. Normally, playing the second game of a back-to-back isn't the best thing for a team, but I'll argue that it is in this case. Army hadn't played since March 6th previous to yesterday's game, so the Black Knights are rested.

Florida Gulf Coast finished third in the A-Sun, losing 71-65 to Queens in the Conference Tournament. But, that was all the way back on March 3rd as well. I'll also argue, that "rest" is going to lead to "rust" here for FGCU, and that yesterday's win for Army will now only help it here in the second game of the back-to-back. 

I'm grabbing the points, the play is ARMY.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NCAA SECOND ROUND TOURNEY TOY on the OVER Oregon/Arizona.

These teams are familiar with each other, despite now playing in different conferences.

Oregon beat Indiana 72-59 in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, but then fell 74-64 to Michigan State. The Ducks then opened up the NCAA Tournament with a dominant 81-52 victory over Liberty as seven-point favs. All three of those games went UNDER the number, but note that looking back Oregon has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Arizona won its first two conference games over KU and Texas Tech, but then the Wildcats fell 72-64 to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament. Arizona then opened up the NCAA Tourney with an impressive 93-65 win over Akron.

Both teams' offenses took center stage in the first round, and I believe that'll again be the case here in the second.

This O/U line is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NIT SECOND ROUND GOY on Arkansas State.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

Both teams dominated in their opening-round matchup.

Arkansas State beat Saint Louis 103-78, while North Texas beat Furman 75-64. The Red Wolves average 79.9 PPG, while allowing 70.4. UNT averages 68.3, while allowing 59.8.

It's a classic clash of styles here, and while "defense wins championships" typically, I don't think that's going to be the case in this particular matchup though. 

North Texas is great at home, but Arkansas State is loaded with talent and has the ability to win this one outright in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is ARKANSAS STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NCAA SECOND ROUND GOY on Houston.

A Sweet 16 berth is on the line on Saturday night, and in this matchup of No. 1 vs. No. 8, I believe the favorite will not only win this game, but do it in blowout fashion. So I'm laying the points.

Both teams cruised to an easy victory in the first round, but Houston's ability to stretch defenses will finally run Gonzaga's five-game win streak in my opinion. 

The Zags can run with the best of them, but this Cougars' defense is on an entirely different level. 

Houston also holds a +6.5 rebounding edge per game.

This is a bad matchup for the Zags. Look for HOUSTON to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the win and cover.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST ROUND NCAA TOURNEY GOY on the OVER Liberty/Oregon.

This is the final game in the Round of 64 and it features a 12/5 matchup. 

Liberty is a confident team that I believe will be pushing the pace from start to finish. The Flames dominated the Conference USA and then capped it off with a Tournament title win as well.

Kaden Metheny is averaging 13.5 PPG this year and has been even better of late, combining for 45 points over his last two games. 

Oregon is a big favorite, but the Ducks will have their hands full with a Liberty team that ranks second in the country in effective field goal percentage (58.4%.) 

I see this being a competitive, fast-paced affair, and one that flies well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on Norfolk State.

Florida is a huge favorite here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I am definitely expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting.

Florida is the No. 1 seed, and Norfolks is the No. 16.

Florida enters having won six straight, while the Spartans earned an automatic bid after winning the MEAC Tournament title. 

Todd Golden's team won't be looking past the Spartans, but their depth and veteran line-up is going to be able to keep it much closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

With nearly 70% of the public money on the favorite, I love the points in this one. While the majority goes one way, I'm going the other.

The play is NORFOLK STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST ROUND NCAA TOURNEY GOY on Nebraska Omaha.

We have a big number here, and it's a little TOO big for the Red Storm to cover in my opinion.

I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a comfortable cover for Nebraska Omaha in my opinion.

All eyes are on Rick Pitino's club in this matchup, but I think the Summit regular-season and Conference Tournament Champ Nebraska Omaha has what it takes to hang around and make this one interesting. 

What the Mavericks lack in size, they make up for in outside shooting, depth and veteran leadership. Note that when they hit 39 percent or more from ranger, they're 12-1.

The Red Storm are poor from the three-point line and the charity stripe as well.

St. John's wins with its defense, but the Mavericks aren't prone to tuning the ball over a lot. 

I think St. John's has what it takes to make it out of the first round, but not to come close in covering this massive spread.

Grab the points, the play is NEBRASKA OMAHA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Utah Valley.

Utah Valley finished 25-8, while San Francisco was 24-9.

The Dons lost 85-76 to Gonzaga in the second round of the WCC Tournament, while Utah Valley lost to Grand Canyon by a score of 89-82 in the WAC Tourney final. 

San Fran averages 75.9 PPG, while conceding 68.9. The Wolverines aveage 76.2 PPG, while allowing only 68. 

San Fran is dealing with an injury issue to its second-leading scorer. Utah Valley is coming in with a chip on its shoulder and I believe it has a legit shot at winning this one outright.

Grab the points though, the play is UTAH VALLEY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST FOUR SUPER TOTAL on the OVER MSM/American.

These teams enter their First Four matchup off several lower-scoring games, but with so much on the line here, I'm expecting each to push the pace and for this total to eclipse the posted number well before the final horn sounds.

Both teams finished 22-12. Mount St. Mary's rolled through the MAAC Tournament with three straight wins, beatin Iona 63-49 in the finale. All three games went UNDER the number. Looking back though the Mount has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

American won all three games in its Patriot League Tournament as well, ending with a 74-52 victory over Navy. The Eagles scored 71, 72 and 74 points respectively over those three contests, and I see this pattern continuing here.

These teams are efficient on offense and good on defense. Look for these rested teams though to come out and push the pace and watch the total easily blast well OVER this number before the game is through.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST FOUR TOY on the OVER UNC/SDSU.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my "wheelhouse," so to speak.

UNC finished 22-13 in the ACC this year, falling to Duke in the Championship game by a score of 74-71. 

All three of its Conference tournament games went UNDER the number, but note that looking back UNC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

SDSU lost 62-52 to Boise State in the Conference Tournament, after finishing 21-9 overall. It's final three regular season games flew well OVER the number thogh, and I believe with the extra time off to prepare for this game, that the Aztecs' offense will return to the norm. 

North Carolina will be looking to push the pace here is the bottom line as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone.

This number is low in my opinion, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT FIRST ROUND GOY on Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks finished 22-7 and second in the Conference-USA, while Georgia Tech was 17-16 and finished eighth in the ACC. 

Jacksonville State lost to Liberty in the Conference USA Championship game despite a monster game from Jaron Pierre Jr, who had 19 points in the loss. 

Only four teams from the ACC got selected to the NCAA Tournament, and the Yellow Jackets weren't one. A recent stand-out was Duncan Powell, who had 24 points in the conference tournament loss to Duke. 

There was one point in time where an eighth place finish in the ACC would guarantee you spot in the NCAA Tournament, but that time is long past. The ACC is not what it used to be.

The Yellow Jackets had the slightly more difficult schedule, but Jacksonville State has the veteran leadership to pull of a potential upset here in the first round.

This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top.

Grab the points, the play is JACKSONVILLE STATE.  

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL on the UNDER.

These teams have been involved in higher-scoring games to reach the finale, but I'm expecting a bit more of a defensive affair, as fatigue finally sets in for each team.

UAB beat ECU 94-77 and then North Texas 66-56 yesterday to advance. The first game flew well OVER the number, and the second stayed well UNDER. 

UAB lost both regular season games to the Tigers, and each game went OVER, so the last thing the Blazers will want to do is turn this into a "shootout" again. 

Memphis beat Wichita State 83-80 and then also held on for dear life in a 78-77 victory over Tulane yesterday. The Tigers failed to cover the spread in both, and each game flew OVER the posted number.

But now here in the Championship game, I say that a third game in three days will lead to each side playing at a more "methodical" pace, and because of that, I'm definitely on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AE TOURNEY CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL on the OVER.

I'm anticipating a shootout here in the AE Tourney Championship total. 

Maine has gone 3-0 SU/ATS to advance, and all three games have gone UNDER the number. Note that looking back the Black Bears have in fact seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Maine lost 80-72 to Bryant in their most recent matchup on March 1st, and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well.

The Bulldogs are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS so far. Their last game flew well OVER the number in their 91-78 victory over Albany, and all signs point to the No. 1 seed posting another similar big offensive performance here as well in my opinion. 

With each side pushing the pace from the opening tip, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOURNEY TOY on the OVER Purdue/Michigan.

Purdue nudged past USC 76-71 last night, unable to cover the 10.5-point spread. The Boilermakers lost 75-73 at Michigan last month. 

The Wolverines backed their way into the Conference Tournament, losing their last three, including a 79-62 setback at Michigan State in the finale. Michigan has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that looking back the Wolverines have seen the total go OVER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

I don't see this being another defensive battle at all now that we're in the Tournament. Neither team has a home-court advantage and with each pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOURNEY TOY on the OVER Bowling Green/Akron.

The MAC Tournament enters the quarterfinals on Thursday with No. 1 Akron taking on No. 8 Bowling Green.

Akron was 17-1 in conference play. The Zips have a balanced line-up with eight players averaging more than six points per game. 

Bowling Green won't be rolling over though, as it won four of its final five games. The lone loss came in a 64-63 loss to WMU last Friday. 

Akron is a big favorite here and I expect the Zips to push the pace and play to their strength by putting the pressure on the Falcons to match their tempo.

A faster pace will lead to more shots and more shots will lead to more points.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER USC/Rutgers.

These teams played to several higher-scoring outcomes to close out the regular season, including against each other, but now that the Conference Tourney is here, I'm expecting a completely different dynamic overall in this one.

USC finished 15-16 after going just 1-4 down the stretch. It lost 95-84 at Rutgers on February 23rd, and note that the Trojans have seen the total dip below the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Rutgers finshed 15-16 overall as well. The Scarlet Knights closed out the regular season with a 75-67 OT win over Minnesota and saw the total go OVER in five straight to finish the campaign. But note that Rutgers has in fact seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

I'm expecting a very competitive battle, but the winner will be the one that plays the best on the defensive end.

This number is high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY GOY on Georgia Tech on the moneyline.

UVA finished 15-16 and 8-12 in conference play. The Cavs earned a bye despite finishing ninth. The Cavaliers lost five of seven to close out the year, including falling 84-70 to Syracuse in their regular-season finale.

Georgia Tech finished 16-15 on the season. The Yellow Jackets finished eighth and also received a bye in the first round. Georgia Tech closed out the year strong, winning nine of its last 13 games. They'll be eager to bounce back after a poor 69-43 loss to Wake Forest in their final regular-season game. 

Georgia Tech is ranked higher defensively. Its playing better currently. It also plays with revenge after the Cavs took the only meeting of the year.

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and their current form is one of the main reasons why I'm on GEORGIA TECh on the moneyline on Wednesday.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AE TOURNEY TOY on the OVER Maine/Vermont.

Maine finished 19-13 and it's 2-0 so far in the America East Tournament, beating Elon and most recently UMass Lowell by a score of 72-64. Both games went UNDER the number, but now this O/U line is a bit TOO low in my estimation.

Maine lost both games to Vermont this year, both SU and ATS. They fell 65-61 at home to the Catamounts in mid-February, but note that the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

Vermont beat New Hampshire 64-57 in a low-scoring victory to move on, but prevoius to that the Catamounts closed out the regular season with five straight victories, with the final four blasting well past the posted total.

With the majority expecting another low-scoring affair, this one also greatly appeals to my contrarian nature.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CAA TOM on the UNDER COFC/UNC Wilmington.

These teams were involved in high-scoring affairs to open up the CAA Conference Tournament, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair this time around.

COFC held on for a tight 79-78 OT win over Monmouth last night, unable to cover the 8.5-point spread. Suffice it to say, I expect fatigue to be a major issue now for the Cougars here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

UNC Wilmington beat Hampton 79-65 to advance. The Seahwks won 86-66 in the most recent matchup over the Cougars at home back in mid-February, but note that COFC has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the UNDER Texas Tech/ASU.

The Conference Tournament is right around the corner. So is selection Sunday.

Texas Tech comes to town at 23-7 and having won two in a row after a high-scoring 91-75 win over Colorado last time out. 

It beat ASU 111-106 in a thrlling OT victory at home on February 12th, but now I feel in the rematch here in Arizona State, that the value lies with the UNDER finally. 

Note that ASU has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

The Sun Devils are just 13-17 and they'll be desperate to snap a three-game slide. ASU has seen the total go OVER in three straight following a 113-100 loss at Arizona, but note that the Sun Devils have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Everything finally points to a defensive battle here in my opinion; the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNEY TOY on the OVER North Dakota/South Dakota State.

These teams finished the regular season playing to some lower-scoring affairs, but everything finally points to more of a "shootout" here in my opinion for a couple of different reasons.

The North Dakota Fighting Hawks finished 11-20 and they lost their final two games. They saw the total go UNDER in three straight to end the regular season, but note that the Fighting Hawks have in fact seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

South Dakota State finished 20-11 after falling 78-62 to Denver in its final regular season outing. The Jackrabbits though play with the revenge factor after an 80-75 loss to UND as a seven-point favorite back in February, and note that South Dakota State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later! 

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* WCC TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER San Diego/Pacific.

Two teams that backed their way into the Conference Tournament collide here and in my opinion, this O/U line is way too high.

San Diego finished just 5-26. It managed an 82-80 win over Portland as a two-point dog in its finale. The Toreros enter the Tourney having seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back San Diego has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Pacific finished 9-23 after four straight losses to close out the season. The Tigers beat the Toreros 71-69 as 3.5-point favs last time out, and everything once again points to another competitive and low-scoring battle here in the Tournament.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on DePaul.

DePaul is just 1-10 on the road this year. No wonder Providence is seeing 80% of the action in this one.

And no wonder this one appeals to my contrarian nature.

Providence is only 12-17 overall this year, including 10-5 at home. 

But the Blue Demons do play with revenge here after falling 70-63 in OT at home to Providence as two-point favorites back in December, and note that DePaul is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. 

Both teams enter on bad losing streaks. With a game at Xavier to close out the season, will the home side get caught looking ahead?!

There are plenty of great situational factors colliding here in favor of DEPAUL, so grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER Detroit/UNK.

Detroit backed its way into the Conference Tournament to say the least, finishing 8-23 overall. It somehow beat UNK 68-57 as a 7.5-point dog on January 30th.

Note though that UNK has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The Norse though enter on fire at 16-15 and having won four in a row. 

With Northern Kentucky looking to avenge the earlier loss and to control the pace of this one, everything does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on North Alabama.

I played against Austin Peay last night in its 90-69 win over North Florida. UNF was slightly favored and had a half time lead.

But now here in the second game of the back-to-back, I think North Alabama will take full advantage.

The Lions received a bye in the first round after finishing 22-9 and beat the Governors 74-64 on the road back in February, easily covering the spread.

I'm expecting an even bigger blowout this time around.

Lay the points, the play is NORTH ALABAMA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* A-SUN TOURNEY SIDE OF THE YEAR on North Florida on the moneyline.

It's tournament time, and I like North Florida to avenge an earlier loss to Austin Peay with a straight up win here. I also like North Florida on the spread as well.

Austin Peay finished 13-18 and backed its way into the conference Tournament by losing its final two games. It beat UNF though 97-89 as a 6.5-point dog back in early January on the road though, and note that UNF is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

North Florida finished 15-16, but it also lost its final two games. 

But now here we are in a neutral location, and the Ospreys aren't getting nearly enough respect in this position. The Governors' offense was decent at home, but often stalled on the road this season.

Look for revenge-minded NORTH FLORIDA to dig deep here and find a way to move onto the next round.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC GOM on Texas.

Texas is 16-12 after a tough 86-81 OT loss at Arkansas. The Longhorns have lost two straight, but I believe they bounce back at home here.

Despite falling last time out and losing ATS for a sixth straight time as well, note that the Longhorns are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 following five or more ATS losses in a row.

Georgia is 17-11 after snapping a four-game slide with an 88-83 win over Florida at home as a 6.5-point dog last time out. Note though that the Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU/ATS conference win as an underdog.

This one MEANS a lot more to the home side in my estimation and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. So lay the points, the play is indeed on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WCC TOW on the UNDER Peppderdine/Portland.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle here at Portland finally on Thursday night.

Pepperdine is 10-19 after three straight losses, most recently falling 93-82 at LMU. 

The Waves play with revenge after an 84-64 home loss to Portland at the start of the month, and note that Pepperdine has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

That contest stayed UNDER the number, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in Portland in the rematch as well.

The Pilots are only 11-18, but they've won three of their last four following an 81-73 road victory at Pacific as a three-point dog. But that fact is critical for us to note here, as Portland has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five following a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog.

This O/U line is now a little bit TOO high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GOM on FIU.

While an outright win is clearly not out of the question, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

FIU is only 8-19, but it plays with revenge here after a tight 73-67 loss at Kennesaw State at the start of the month.

Note that the Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent. FIU has also lost five straight ATS, but note that looking back the Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five after five or more ATS losses in a row.

Kennesaw State is 16-12. It's coming off the 60-49 home loss to New Mexico State as a five-point favorite.

The Owls stumbled on Senior's night, as they finish off the regular season on the road with two tough games at Liberty and Jacksonville State after this.

Purely from a situational stand point, I say the home side is the correct call here. Grab the points, the play is FIU.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PRIME-TIME PUNI$HER on DePaul.

Here is a great "situational" play. Clearly, Creighton is the better team, but I believe it'll get caught "looking ahead" here to its upcoming road game at Xavier, which sits directly behind it in the standings.

Lowly DePaul has now lost five straight SU and three straight ATS following an 84-72 loss at home to Butler, but note that the Blue Demons are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten following three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

They also play with revenge following a 73-49 home loss to Creighton back in January, and note that DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent.

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is DEPAUL.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Stanford.

The Cardinal stopped a two-game slide with a 66-61 win over Cal to move to 17-10, but they've now lost seven straight ATS.

And that's why nearly 70% of the early public money was quick to grab the points in this case.

Yes, the Eagles are coming off back-to-back wins, but they're still only 12-15. BC has covered in five straight, but note that looking back the Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following five or more ATS victories in a row.

With 20-7 SMU coming to town next, I believe STANFORD keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOW on the UNDER South Carolina/Missouri.

South Carolina is now 11-16 after an 84-69 upset home win over Texas last time out.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?!

Missouri is 20-7 after a 92-85 loss at Arkansas. Note though that the Tigers have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

With tough upcoming games at Vandy and Oklahoma, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side as well.

These combination of situational factors collide and help drive this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHLAND TOY on the OVER Lamar/Incarnate Word.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a higher-scoring outcome here on Monday in my opinion.

Lamar is 18-10 and rolling after a 66-58 win at HBU last time out. Incarnate Word plays with revenge here though after a 72-58 loss at Lamar back in early January, and note that the Cardinals have seen the total soar above the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Incarnate Word is 14-14 after back-to-back victories, and with each team pushing the pace like I believe it will from the opening tip until the final horn, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* A-SUN TOY on the UNDER Queens NC/West Georgia.

Queens University is 17-12 after a 92-78 loss to Austin Peay.

The Royals have seen the total go OVER in five straight now, but note that looking back Queens has in fact seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

It's West Georgia that plays with revenge here though after an 87-68 road loss at Queens in early February. Note though that the Wolves have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an oppoent.

At 5-24, West Georgia is looking to salvage something over the final few games.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST GOY on Hawaii.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything definitely points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion.

The Warriors are now 14-12 after losing three of their last four. They'll clearly be eager to try and stop the bleeding and pull off the unlikely upset. But Hawaii also plays with the added incentive of "revenge" after a 74-63 home loss to UC San Diego in late January, and note that the Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent.

The Tritons are rolling at 23-4 and enter having won eight straight SU/ATS. 

But with a game at 19-7 Cal State Northridge up next, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot for the home side, but also a "look-ahead" position.

And when you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAME."

Grab the points, the play is HAWAII.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* MAAC GOM on Sacred Heart.

Sacred Heart is now 11-14 after back-to-back losses. The Pioneers are off an 80-73 home loss to Sienna, but note that Sacred Heart is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite.

The Pioneers have also performed well in this spot for bettors, as they're 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU conference home loss vs. an opponent (lost 66-65 on January 10th to Merrimack as 2.5-point underdogs.)

The Warriors are 14-12, but they're playing poorly right now, off back-to-back losses, including a crushing 61-60 home setback to Marist as five-point favorites.

Grab the points, the play is SACRED HEART.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOY on the UNDER Marshall/ODU.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair this time around in my opinion. 

Marshall is now 15-12 after back-to-back losses. The Herd have seen the total go OVER in three straight after their most recent 79-68 loss at Louisiana Lafayette, but note that looking back Marshall has seen the total dip UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

ODU is now 11-16 after three straight losses. The Monarchs have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in three straight, but note that looking back ODU has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends listed above all finally point to a much more defensive battle this evening.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* CBB TOP UNDERDOG PLAY on San Jose State.

While I'm clearly not calling for an outright upset, everything definitely points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting for a few different reasons in my opinion.

San Jose State is just 12-15, but it won't be lacking motivation after three straight SU/ATS losses, most recently falling 73-58 to Nevada. The Spartans though are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

The Spartans fell 85-78 at home to Utah State in January and covered with the 9.5 points.

Now they're getting nearly double that, vs. a Utah State team off an 82-79 loss at New Mexico, and with a big game at home vs. 18-6 SDSU this weekend.

Look for the revenge-minded Spartans to keep this one tight until the end once again and grab the points.

The play is SJSU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUMMIT LEAGUE TOY on the UNDER ND State/SD State.

These teams have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting a much tighter and lower-scoring outcome here finally on Wednesday.

ND State is off back-to-back high-scoring OT victories. The Bison have seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that looking back ND State has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Look for a small letdown offensively here from the visitors finally.

SD State is off three straight high-scoring victories. The Jackrabbits have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back SD State has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

SD State won this game 72-62 as a 2.5-point dog back in late January at ND State, and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG EAST TOY on the UNDER Butler/Xavier.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle in my opinion.

Butler is now 12-13 after three straight victories. The Bulldogs have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight fter their most recent 97-86 win over Georgetown, but note that looking back Butler has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Xavier is now 16-10 after back-to-back wins, most recently an 85-68 home victory over DePaul.

The Musketeers have seen the total fly OVER in eight straight now.

But when these teams played last March, Xavier held on for the lower-scoring 76-72 victory, the total staying well UNDER the posted number of 153 in that one.

I'm predicting another competitive battle here, and once again I believe it'll be won by whichever team plays better on the defensive end.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUNI$HER on Oklahoma.

While I'm clearly not expecting an outright win, I do definitely expect the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The No. 17 Sooners come in eager to snap a four-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. 

Florida is 22-3 overall and it comes in at the other end of the spectrum, complacent after four straight SU/ATS victories.

Clearly, this is why over 75% of the public money is quick to back the favorite here. 

Oklahoma is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I think the Sooners respond here.

The Gators have been covering larger and larger spreads of late, but now this one here on Tuesday is a bit TOO big in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is OKLAHOMA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOM on the UNDER CMU/Ohio.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive battle finally here from Ohio on Tuesday in my opinion for a couple of different key situational reasons.

Central Michigan is now 11-14 after back-to-back losses. The Chips will be eager to snap the slide after conceding 176 points combined over their last two setbacks.

Note though that CMU has in fact seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten though after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Ohio is now 13-12 after a 76-75 setback at Kent State last time out. 

The Bobcats won this game 57-55 on the road back in early January, so the visitors also play with the added incentive of "revenge' here.

Look for a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring final combined result as well in February as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SWAC TOY on the UNDER Jackson State/Bethune-Cookman.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle in my opinion finally on Monday.

Bethune-Cookman is 11-14 after having its four-game win streak snapped last time out in a 78-74 loss at home to Alcorn State. Note though that the Wildcats have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. Bethune-Cookman has also seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that the Wildcats have also seen the total dip below the posted number in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Jackson State won this game 86-81 at home back in late January, and while the total went well OVER the number then, the rematch points to a much more methodical pace this time around in my opinion.

The Tigers are now 8-17 after a 76-71 loss at FAMU. Jackson State has seen the total go OVER in five straight as well, but note that looking back the Tigers have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

This number is high now in my opinion, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOY on Notre Dame.

While I'm not predicting an outright win or anything, I do believe that Notre Dame is going to easily keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. 

Louisville is 19-6 and off three straight victories. With a game at home vs. FSU after this, I believe the visitors come in complacent and also get caught looking ahead.

No such luxury for 11-13 Notre Dame though, which finally broke a three-game slide with a 97-94 OT win at BC last time out. The Cardinals have now failed to cover in five straight, but note that looking back they've been money in the bank for bettors in this spot by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight after five or more ATS losses in a row.

This is the start of three straight important and difficult home games for Notre Dame, with SMU and Pitt coming to town next.

Look for the home side to risk life and limb here to try and secure the outright, but the official is to grab the points with NOTRE DAME.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC GOY on Texas.

Let's bypass the spread and instead just play the home side to find a way to win this game outright.

Texas is now 15-10 after three straight losses. The Longhorns have also lost three straight ATS. But note that looking back Texas is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Kentucky is now 17-7 after back-to-back victories. With a home game vs. Vanderbilt up next, will the visiting side get caught looking ahead?!

Maybe is the answer.

No such luxury for the Longhorns though, who can't look past this opportunity after the string of poor play. A win vs. Kentucky here would be a monumental lift, especially with a winnable game at 10-14 South Carolina after this.

Off the upset win at home over Tennessee, everything points to a similar letdown here for the Wildcats in Texas in my opinion.

The play is on the LONGHORNS on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG EAST GOY on Providence.

I love the way this one sets up for Providence from a situational perspective.

Providence is 11-14 after four straight losses, most recently a 91-82 home setback to Xavier as a 3-point dog. Note though that the Friars are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as an underdog.

Providence also plays with revenge here after a 75-73 loss at Villanova in mid-January, and note that the Friars are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent.

The Friars came up short outright, but did easily cover the spread with the nine-points in that one, and I'm expecting another "nail-biter" here as well.

Villanova is 15-10 after three straight SU/ATS victories, but note that looking back the Wildcats are in fact just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

Look for the hungry home side to fight tooth and nail here; the play is indeed on PROVIDENCE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* A-10 TOY on the OVER St. Bonaventure/Massachusetts.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a "shootout" here finally in my opinion between these two A-10 opponents on Saturday afternoon.

Just a great "situational" play. The Bonnies are 17-9, but they won't be lacking for motivation here after three straight losses. St. Bonaventure has seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, not surprisingly.

But both of those facts are important for us to take note of, as St. Bonaventure has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row, and four of its last five after three or more SU losses in a row.

Umass is now 11-14 after a 77-68 loss to Davidson. The Minutemen have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that looking back UMass has seen the total go OVER in 11 of its last 18 after playing to five or more straight UNDERs in a row.

Both teams are desperate to get back into the winner's circle, and because of that, we're expecting them to push the pace from start to finish.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IVY-LEAGUE GOM on Pennsylvania.

While I'm clearly not predicting an outright win or anything like that here, in my opinion everything definitely points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting.

Just a great situational wager, as I think Yale will take the proverbial foot off the gas in the second half. 

The Bulldogs are 14-6 after eight straight victories, and five straight ATS wins. Note though that looking back Yale is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS victories in a row.

This is a unique situation for the regular season, with 16-6 Princeton coming to town on Sunday. 

Not only does this set up as a natural LETDOWN spot after the long win streak, but also a LOOK-AHEAD postion as well with the Tigers in town the next day.

When you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAME."

Penn is 6-14. It's lost three straight SU/ATS, including a 90-61 home loss to Yale two weeks ago. Note though that the Quakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is PENNSYLVANIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WCC GOM on Gonzaga.

The Dons are 20-6, but have faced lesser opponents than 18-7 Gonzaga so far. The Bulldogs will be hungry here to make an example of San Francisco.

The Bulldogs' size in the middle will prove to be the difference-maker in this matchup in my opinion.

San Fran has a much more "winnable" game at 4-22 San Diego after this, and I believe it gets caught "looking ahead" and takes the foot off the gas in the second half and throws up the white flag.

Look for the BULLDOGS to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on UC Riverside on the moneyline.

UC Riverside is 16-9 after a 69-64 win over Cal State last time out. The Highlanders beat UC Davis 60-58 at home on January 30th, and while they were unable to cover the 5-point spread, they did come through with the SU victory.

I expect an even better effort here on the road, but let's bypass the spread and instead just take the visitors on the moneyline option to win this contest outright.

UC Davis has won two in a row after a 65-49 win at Cal State Fullerton, but after four straight on the road, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Aggies.

This is a bigger mismatch in my opinion than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Lay the price for UC RIVERSIDE on the moneyline.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Wyoming.

While I'm clearly not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything definitley points to a much tighter battle in the end in this one in my opinion, so I'm grabbing the points.

New Mexico is 20-4 and rolling along. I expect winning to lead to complacency here. The Lobos have won three straight ATS, but note that the Lobos are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row.

With a game vs. No. 1 Utah State here this weekend, not only does this set up as a natural letdown spot for the home side (which already beat Wyoming 61-53 on the road in January), but also a "look ahead" position.

When you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAME."

Grab the points, the play is WYOMING.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Valparaiso.

Valpo is now 10-5 after nine straight losses. The Beacons have lost five straight ATS, but note looking back Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row.

Belmont beat Valpo 71-64 at home, but note that the Beacons are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent.

A great revenge spot here for the home side; grab the points, the play is VALPARAISO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Texas.

While I do think an outright win is a very real possibility obvoiusly, in the end my official call will be to recommend to grab as many points as you can with the home side.

Alabama is 20-3 after six straight wins, most recently holding on for the 85-81 win at Arkansas as a five-point fav.

Now here on the road The Tide are going to have difficulty covering a similar spread here as well in my opinion.

Texas is 15-9, but it comes in hungry to snap a two-game slide, most recently falling 86-78 at Vanderbilt. 

The Longhorns though are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Look at these teams numbers/metrics, and they're quite similar, especially if you look closer at their home/away numbers.

Either way, the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the above-listed ATS supporting trends, all point to TEXAS to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. So grab the points!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Michigan moneyline.

I'm going to suggest bypassing the spread and instead, just play the revenge-minded home side on the moneyline option to win this game outright.

Purdue has won four straight after a 73-70 loss to Ohio State back in January. Its first victory out of those four was a 91-64 home win over Michigan as a 4-point favorite.

Note that Purdue is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent.

The Wolverines recovered to win four straight after the blowout loss, but overall now Michigan enters having lost seven straight ATS.

With the public quick to back the visitor once again, I'll be going full-on contrarian here, as I do now feel that the value has swung the other way on the determined home side.

Lay the price on MICHIGAN to find a way to get the job done straight-up.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER Auburn/Vanderbilt.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a defensive battle here on Tuesday night in my opinion.

Auburn is 21-2 and its second loss came in its last outing, falling 90-81 at home to Florida as an 11-point favorite. but that fact is something we can take advantage of here, as Auburn has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite.

The Tigers have also now seen the total go OVER in five straight following the loss, but note that looking back Auburn has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Vanderbilt is 17-6, and it just broke a two-game slide with an 86-78 win over Texas last time out. The Commodores have seen the total go OVER the number in three straight following the victory, but note that looking back the Commodores have seen the total dip below the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Auburn won this game 81-54 at home last year, and while I'm expecting a more competitive battle this time around, I do once again anticipate a lower-scoring defensive battle.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Fresno State/Nevada.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a defensive battle here on Monday in my opinion.

Fresno State is just 5-19 after an 89-81 home loss to Utah State. The Bulldogs have seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but note that looking back the Bulldogs have seen the total go UNDER four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Nevada is 13-10 after back-to-back victories, most recently a 74-60 road win at Air Force. The Wolfpack have seen the total go OVER in three straight as well, but looking back Nevada has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Nevada won 77-66 in OT at Fresno State back in January, and that total also stayed UNDER the number despite going to the extra period.

I'm expecting another very defensive battle here in February as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOY on Arizona on the moneyline.

I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. I'd say that this spread is very accurate, but for this selection, I'm going to say, let's bypass the spread and instead grab the revenge-minded home side on the extremely-reasonable moneyline option.

Texas Tech is 18-4 after a 73-59 home win over Baylor. The Red Raiders have won three straight ATS, but note that looking back they're just 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Arizona is 16-6 and it's won five in a row since a 70-54 setback at Texas Tech. Note though that looking back the Wildcats have indeed done well in this spot for bettors though by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent.

I say home floor can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here either.

Lay the price on ARIZONA on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the UNDER USC/Purdue.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself in entering this one, combined with some other relevant O/U ATS trends that support us here, all do indeed finally point to more of a defensive affair here on Friday night.

USC is 13-9 after a 77-75 loss at Northwestern in its last outing. The Trojans have seen the total go OVER in eight of their last nine, which is why the general betting public is quick to once again back another high-scoring affair here.

And so, clearly, this one appeals to my contrarian nature as well.

Purdue is 18-5 after three straight wins, most recently a 90-81 victory at Iowa. The Boilermakers have now seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight, but note that looking back Purdue has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

The oddsmakers are not giving the Trojans much of a chance here. I'm expecting a much slower-paced affair than what they're trying to lead us to believe though overall, and so the play here is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY TOM on the UNDER Portland State/Idaho.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but for a few different situational reasons, I believe everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle here on Thursday night.

Portland State is 13-9 now after back-to-back losses, most recently a tight 74-73 setback at Montana State. Note though that the Vikings have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Idaho is 10-13 after an 87-71 loss at Idaho State. The Vandals have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last six though after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

These teams played at Portland State in mid-January and the Vikings won 75-63. In my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOY on the UNDER Belmont/Bradley.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting on Wednesday night.

Belmont is 15-8 after losing three of its last four, most recently an 80-75 home setback to Evansville. Note though that the Bruins have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. Also in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Bradley is 18-5, but the Braves are coming off back-to-back losses. Most recently an 83-69 loss at Northern Iowa. The Braves have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back that Bradley has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

These are two decent teams, that are both in the same boat: looking to get back on track and break a string of poor play.

Look for each to double down defensively because of that here.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* A-SUN TOM on the UNDER Lipscomb/West Georgia.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including against each other in Lipscomb's 86-67 win at home as a 20-point favorite in early January.

Note though that West Georgia has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent.

While the Bisons are 15-8 and off an 87-80 win over Bellarmine, the Wolves are just 4-19 after an 87-68 loss at Queens University last time out.

West Georgia has seen the total go OVER in five straight now, but note that looking back the Wolves have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

A great situational play here in my opinion on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MONEYLINE TOP on Grambling State.

I play totals. I play dogs. I also play favorites. I'm going to bypass the spread option here and just lay the price on the home side to win this one outright.

Alcorn State is just 4-17. It's been trading wins/losses over its last six games. It's won six of its last seven ATS, but now here I think the Braves are getting too much respect here on the road.

Grambling State is only 6-15. It's also been trading wins/losses over its last six games and off a 65-50 loss here to Jacksonville State as a 1-point favorite last time out, I believe this pattern of wins/losses continues here in this favorable matchup.

Just a really great "spot" bet and overall situational play here. Lay the price on GRAMBLING STATE on the MONEYLINE option (although, I still also like on the ATS SPREAD OPTION as well.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG WEST TOW on the UNDER LBSU/UC Santa Barbara.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a defensive battle in my opinion here on Saturday because of a couple of different key situational factors.

LBSU is just 7-15. It's off the heartbreaking 80-75 OT loss at home to UCI as a 15-point dog. LBSU though has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

UCSB is 13-8, but the Gauchos are off the 78-71 home loss to Cal State Northridge last time. Note though that UC Santa Barbara has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

I'm expecting a slower-pace here finally, and for this total to stay well UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Rutgers/Northwestern.

These two teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this one, combined with some relevant numbers/trends all point to a much more defensive battle finally this time around in my opinion.

Rutgers is 10-10 after back-to-back losses. The Scarlet Knights have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after their 81-74 loss to Michigan State last time out. 

Northwestern is 12-8, but it's been alternating wins and losses over it last six games, most recently off the 83-74 loss at Illinois. 

The Wildcats have now seen the total go OVER in nine straight, and the majority of the betting public is quick to back another high-scoring affair here.

But I'm not! I say this O/U line is now inflated and a bit TOO high, and that the value now lies going the other way.

And so while the majority go one way, I'm going the other!

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Maryland.

I'm expecting Maryland to dig deep here and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover.

Wisconsin is ranked 17th in the nation at 16-4 and having won eight of its last nine, including an 83-55 victory over Nebraska at home last time out. Note though that the Badgers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row.

With a game at Northwestern up this weekend, I say the visitors not only have a letdown, but also get caught looking ahead. 

Maryland is 16-5 after three straight wins, most recently a 79-78 road win at Indiana.

The Terps are undervalued here and matchup really well against their opponent.

I'm expecting a double-digit victory, so lay the points with confidence on MARYLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WCC TOM on the UNDER Oregon State/Gonzaga.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle here on Tuesday in my opinion.

Oregon State is 16-6 after an 83-69 win over Santa Clara. The Beavers have seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that looking back Oregon State has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Gonzaga is 15-6 after two straight victories, most recently an 88-75 win over Washington State. The Bulldogs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back Gonzaga has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

oregon State won 97-89 in OT the last time these teams played, but the numbers and trends now all point to a defensive battle this time around.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the UNDER UCLA/USC.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle between these West-Coast Big Ten opponents.

UCLA is now 14-6 after three straight victories, most recently a 65-60 win at Washington. Previous to that the Bruins had seen the total go OVER in five straight. I believe though that UCLA carries over that defensive momentum here.

USC is now 12-7 after a 78-73 win at Nebraska last time out. Note though that the Trojans have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog.

Expect a competitive war here, but a much more defensive one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL WINNER on Wagner.

While I clearly feel that an outright win is a very real possibility, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the visiting side here.

Just really love the way this one sets up for the visiting side. 

Wagner is 10-9, but it'll be hungry here to bounce back after a 71-66 loss at Mercy Hurst as a two-point fav. The Seahawks though are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite though.

St. Francis is now 8-13 after a 74-64 win over Long Island. The Red Flash have covered in five straight, but note that looking back they're just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after five or more straight covers in a row.

Wagner has the slightly better offense and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is WAGNER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER SDSU/Nevada.

Both sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything points to a much tighter defensive battle finally on Saturday in my opinion.

SDSU is 12-5 after a 77-76 OT win at Air Force. The Aztecs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back SDSU has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Nevada is 11-8 after a 90-69 loss at Utah State. The Wolfpack have also seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that Nevada has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

When these teams played last February, Nevada won 70-66 in overtime, and the total still stayed well UNDER the posted number in that one.

Expect another tight battle here, but one that avoids OT.

This number is high in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* A-10 GOM on St. Bonaventure.

I'm not predicting an outright win or anything, but just love the way this one sets up for the visitors.

The Bonnies are 15-5, but they've lost four of their last five, including two in a row. Most recently it was a 75-62 setback at home to George Mason. Note though that St. Bonavneture is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

VCU comes in complacent at 15-4 and after five straight SU/ATS victories in a row. With a game at 12-7 Saint Louis after this, will the visitors also get caught "looking ahead?!"

I think these teams are more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This spread is much too large for the home side to cover, so grab as many points as you can with the BONNIES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG SKY GOM on Weber State.

While I do think an outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Just a great situational play here on the visiting side, who comes in "under the radar" so to speak in my opinion.

Weber State is now 7-12 after going 1-4 in its last five. It's lost three straight ATS after an 80-71 loss to Montana State, but note that the Wildcats have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Portland State is 11-7 after an 80-69 win over Northern Arizona last time out. The Vikings have posted five straight ATS wins, but note that Portland State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after five or more ATS victories in a row.

When you look closely at the metrics, these teams are indeed very evenly matched. The situation here favors the visitors though as I've outlined above, so I'm grabbing the points.

The play is WEBER STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on Miami Florida.

Outright win?! I'm not calling for that. But I do expect a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here.

Just a great overall situational play here. Miami Florida I think sneaks in under the radar here at 4-14 and off the 117-74 loss to SMU. The Hurricanes have lost seven games SU and eight straight ATS. With the majority of the betting public quick to back the home side here, I believe the value has now swung the other way.

Stanford is 12-6. It's off a huge 72-71 upset at North Carolina as a 12-point dog, and with 12-5 FSU coming to town next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot off the big upset, but alos a "look-ahead." And when you add those two situational factors together, you get TRAP GAME.

Look for the hungry HURRICANES to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Colorado.

While I do think an outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can.

BYU is 11-6 after going just 1-4 in its last five. It's off a heartbreaking 73-72 OT loss at Utah, and with a home game vs. Cincinnati next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead." 

Colorado is 9-8, but it comes in desperate to snap a six-game slide. It's lost three straight ATS after an 83-73 loss at Oklahoma State last time out, but the Buffs have indeed responded well for bettors in the past in this spot by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

A great spot bet on COLORADO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on Wyoming.

I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion.

UNLV is 11-7 after back-to-back wins, most recently a 76-68 victory at SDSU as a 10.5-point dog. Note though that the Rebels are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. 

With 16-4 New Mexico coming to town next, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot for the home side, but also a "look-ahead."

And when you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAME."

Wyoming is now 9-9 after three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, most recently the 79-63 setback to Colorado State. Note though that the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. 

I'm grabbing the points, the play is WYOMING.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Northwestern/Michigan.

I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is based upon what I perceive to be a great "situation."

Northwestern is 11-6 after breaking a three-game slide with a tight 76-74 OT win at home over Maryland. The Wildcats have now seen the total go OVER in six straight. Note though that despite the OT win last time out, Northwestern has STILL seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Expect fatigue to be an issue for the Wildcats on the road here.

Michigan is now 13-4 after an exhausting 84-81 OT loss at Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. That result is important to take note of though, as the Wolverines have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after a a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite. Also in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

This line is now inflated in my opinion. I see each side doubling down defensively here because of the reasons listed above, making this O/U line much too high.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on Boston College.

I'm clearly not calling for an outright upset or anything, but in my opinion everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Duke is 15-2 after a dominant 89-54 win over Miami. But with a game at 13-4 Wake Forest up next, not only does this set up as a bit of a natural letdown spot, but also a look-ahead position as well.

Boston College has lost three straight, but it's still 9-8. Note though that the Eagles have indeed responded really well in this spot for bettors in the past though by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

With difficult games at Virginia and UNC next, the road ahead won't get any easider for the Eagles.

With the home side determined to try and pull off an upset, and with the visitors with "other" things on their minds, I'm grabbing the points with BOSTON COLLEGE and expecting a war until the final buzzer sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the OVER Kansas State/Kansas.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring defensive battles of late, but I believe everything finally points to more of an offensive battle in Kansas on Saturday afternoon.

The Jayhawks are 12-4 after a 74-57 loss at Iowa State. Kansas has now seen the total go UNDER in 14 straight, but I believe that string comes to an end here, as note that the Jayhawks have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 following a conference road loss as an underdog.

K-State is now 7-9 after four straight losses. The Wildcats lost 90-68 here last March, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

K-State won't be rolling over and will be trying to take advantage of this Jayhawks team that's on the rebound.

With each side pushing the pace like I believe it will from start to finish, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOY on the UNDER Ohio/Akron.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but in my opinion everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle in Akron on Friday night.

Just a great overall situational play here. 

Ohio is 10-6 this year and it's won six straight after an 86-71 victory over Ball State most recently. Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but that's significant to note here as the Bobcats have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Akron is 11-5 after four straight wins, most recently an 85-78 victory over Toledo.

The Zips have also seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that Akron has seen the total go UNDER eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

When these teams played here last March, Akron held on for the 65-62 victory.

I'm expecting a similar tight and competitive battle, but I also believe it'll be a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WAC TOY on the OVER Utah Tech/Seattle.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a "shootout" here finally at Seattle in my opinion on Thursday night.

Utah Tech is just 6-11, but it's won two in a row, most recently a 58-54 victory over Tarleton State. The Trailblazers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant to note here as Utah Tech has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Seattle is only 6-10, but it just snapped a two-game slide with a 66-64 victory over Abilene Christian. The Redhawks have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, but like their counterparts that fact is also important to note, as Seattle has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Seattle is the big favorite at home here. I'm unsure if the Redhawks can cover this big number, but I am confident that the home side will be looking to push the pace throughout.

Look for this faster pace to result in more shots and more shots = more points.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOW on the OVER NC State/Virginia Tech.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring affair here finally between these ACC rivals.

NC State is now 9-7 after losing three of its last four. That includes a tight 63-61 loss at home to UNC last time out. The Wolfpack have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that NC State has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Virginia Tech is now 7-9 after going 2-1 in its last three, most recently posting the 71-68 upset at Cal as a 7-poing dog. It was just the spark that VT needed and I expect the Hokies to carry over that momentum here as well.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will from the opening tip until the final horn, everything does indeed point to this total flying well OVER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GOM on Northern Kentucky.

While I definitely feel an outright win is in the cards here for the visiting side, the official call for this pick is to grab as many points as you can with NKU.

And with nearly 75% of the early public money on the home side, we're definitely going full-on contrarian here. And that's always good with me!

Cleveland State is 12-6. It's off back-to-back road wins as an underdog. The Vikings have won eight straight. But winning can lead to complacency, and now after this huge run of success and finally returning home, to me this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the over-achieving Vikes.

Northern Kentucky has so far not lived up to expectations. The Norse are 9-9 and hungry for a win here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 68-53 home setback to Oakland as a 3.5-point favorite. Note though that NKU has definitely performed well in this spot for bettors in the past by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOY on the OVER Missouri/Florida.

Both of these teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a wide-open shootout in Florida on Tuesday night in my opinion.

Just a great overall situational play. 

Florida is 15-1 and off back-to-back victories. Its only loss was a 106-100 setback at Kentucky. I'm expecting a similar "barn burner" here for the Gators at home.

Missouri is 13-3 and it won't be rolling over. The Tigers are off back-to-back victories, most recently a 75-66 win over Vandy.

Missouri has seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that looking back the Tigers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Florida won this game 83-74 at home over the Tigers, and I believe we'll see an even higher-scoring battle this time around.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Ohio State.

Here's a great spot for Ohio State to, at the very least, comfortably earn the cover in my opinion.

The Buckeyes are 10-6 after a 73-71 OT loss to Oregon as 2.5-point favorite. Note though that Ohio State has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Back-to-back tight OT games for the Buckeyes, these guys are playing really well right now and I'm expecting that momentum to get carried over here. 

Wisconsin is 13-3 after five straight SU victories and three straight ATS wins in a row, most recently an 80-59 effort here over Minnesota at home. But with a date at newcomer USC after this, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a "look-ahead" position.

If you look at the metrics, these teams match up well. In a contest that I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is indeed on OHIO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CAA TOY on the OVER Campbell/Elon.

These hungry sides have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of an offensive battle here on Monday night at Elon University in my opinion.

As primarily a "situational" capper, this is definitely a great situational play in my opinion.

Elon is 115 after having its four-game win streak snapped in a 78-65 loss at William and Mary. Note though that the Phoenix have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Which Elon now has. With the Phoenix looking to get back on track, look for the visitors to push the pace throughout.

Campbell is 7-9 after a 66-55 win over Hampton last time out. The Fighting Camels have been trading high-scoring outings with lower-scoring outcomes, and I believe this pattern now continues here.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on St. Francis PA.

Here is a great situational play, and while I do definitely feel that an outright victory is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can here.

The Red Flash are now 6-11 after breaking a three-game slide with a 73-59 win over Mercyhurst. 

Fairleigh Dickinson is now 6-11 as well after back-to-back victories, most recently an exhausting 91-86 double OT win over Le Moyne on the road. The Knights are an amazing 12-2 ATS, but with the public quick to once again back the home side, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way.

If you look closely at the metrics, then we find that these teams are indeed very evenly matched. 

But with the majority going one way, I'm going the other.

Consider sprinkling a little on the moneyline here, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ST. FRANCIS PA.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 TOY on the OVER Houston/K-State.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I believe everything finally points to a bit more of an offensive affair here between these Big 12 opponents on Saturday night.

K-State is 7-7 after back-to-back losses, most recently a 79-66 setback at Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats have seen the total go UNDER in four straight now, but despite the loss to the Cowboys, note that K-State has still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Houston is 11-3, most recently off a 65-46 win over TCU. The Cougars have been getting the job done this seaosn with tough defensive play. But with a home game vs. 11-3 WVU up next, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot for the visitors, but also a potential "look ahead" position. I think Houston's defense will be less intense here (note as well that the Cougars have been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones over their last six games, and after holding the Frogs to UNDER 50 points last time, I think this pattern will continue here.)

If this game were being played in Houston, I'd likely downgrade the size of this play overall, but because it's being played in K-State, and because I look for the hungry home side to really push the pace, the OVER is for sure the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOM on Notre Dame.

I hit Pacific over Washington State on Thursday as a 17.5-point dog. I didn't predict a straight-up win in that one, and I'm not here either.

But just like the Cougars I believe that the Blue Devils are now the ones overvalued here, and with the majority of the betting public quick to once again back the favorite this weekend, I'm going full-on contrarian here and instead expecting a much tighter and competitive outcome.

Duke is 13-2 after its most recent 76-47 destruction of Pittsburgh. With the 4-11 Hurricanes coming to town next, the Blue Devils have hit a very "vanilla" part of their schedule.

At times, winning leads to complacency.

Notre Dame is 7-8 and it won't be lacking motivation here as it looks to snap a three-game slide. It fell 66-65 at NC State last time out as a 2.5-point dog.

Previous to that it lost 74-73 at home to UNC as a 3.5-point dog. It's been "close but no cigar" for the Irish this season.

At times, losing breeds motivation.

That said, note that they've responded really well in this spot for bettors in the past by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU losses in a row.

Look for the team to draw inspiration from their "Football brothers," and at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is NOTRE DAME.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHEAST GOY on Le Moyne.

Both teams have been terrible, but it sets up really well for the home side to finally break out with a win and cover in my opinion.

Fairleigh Dickinson is 5-11 after it won 71-59 at Wagner last time out. The Knights have covered in ten straight, and the public is quick to jump on the visitors here in my estimation.

Le Moyne is just 5-11 as well. The Dolphins have lost three straight SU/ATS against some pretty stiff competition (all on the road well,) falling 91-62 at Notre Dame, 88-69 at Niagara, and 78-62 at Long Island.

Note though that Le Moyne is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Let's bypass the spread though and instead take the DOLPHINS on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP