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This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Ohio State/Notre Dame.

If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know the cast of characters on each side (both players and coaches), their strengths and weaknesses, and how they got to this point. If not, just google it and you'll have access to millions of "review" articles.

I think the longer layoff will benefit these defenses, and be a small detriment to the offenses.

Ohio State has won all three playoff games by at least 14 points, most recently the 28-14 victory over Texas. The Buckeyes' only loss this year came against Oregon, who they also beat in the CFP.

Will Howard leads an offense that averages 35.8 PPG. But the Buckeyes' smothering defense concedes just 12.2.

Notre Dame enters with some injury concerns to key offensive players, including to QB Riley Leonard, who has finally just been cleared to play following a blow to the head in the win over Penn State.

The Irish averaged 37 PPG, but conceded just 14.3.

The majority of the money is predicting a shootout here, but I believe it's these underrated defensive units that will "steal the show" so to speak.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CFP SEMI-FINAL GOY on Texas.

With nearly 75% of the early public money on the favorite, this is for sure a big time contrarian play.

Ohio State smashed Oregon 41-21 in the Quarter Final, while Texas recovered and hung on for the 39-31 double OT victory over Arizona State.

It was an all around dominant effort no doubt in Ohio State's win over the Ducks with Will Howard throwing for three TD's.

But Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns will be playing with a collective chip on their shoulders here after the near "brain fart" last time out. Ewers though still finished with 322 passing yards and three TD's. 

Ewers has extra-incentive as well to beat OSU after transferring from there in 2021. The Longhorns will also enjoy a significant "home field" advantage with this being played at Cowboy Stadium.

I'm not ruling out an outright upset, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with the LONGHORNS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CFP SEMIFINAL TOY on the OVER Notre Dame/Penn State.

I'm expecting these teams to explode on the offensive end, as I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Both teams are coming off low-scoring victories to advance, but it's the offense that I see rolling for each team here in the CFP Semi Final.

Notre Dame beat a tough Georgia team by a score of 20-10, while Penn State advanced with a 31-14 victory over Boise State.

I expect each of these team to put up AT LEAST an equivalent amount of offense this week as well, making the OVER the correct call as far as the total is concerned. 

So far Penn State has posted 69 points over its two Playoff games and there's no reason not to think that this unit won't keep rolling here (Drew Allar had three TD's in the win over Boise State.)

The Penn State defense did take a hit though with defensive end Abdul Carter a big question mark heading into this one.

Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard is poised for a big bounce back effort after doing just enough to take out Georgia.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Notre Dame/Georgia.

It's a common theme here with my 3-game Bowl report, as I'm expecting these "defenses" to "steal the show" so to speak.

Notre Dame advanced by taking out Indiana 27-17, while Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in OT to win the SEC Championship, earning a "bye" in the first round.

The Irish average 38.8 PPG, while allowing just 13.8.

Riley Leonard though will be under pressure by an aggressive Georgia defense that concedes 20.4 PPG. The Bulldogs though are down to their second-string QB in Gunner Stockton for this one.

Georgia could also struggle to run the ball here.

This one is going to be decided by field position and the men in the trenches and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Ohio State/Oregon.

With nearly 75% of the money expecting a higher-scoring shootout, I'm definitely going full-on "contrarian" for this one.

Ohio State looks to avenge a 32-31 loss in Oregone from earlier in the year, and note that looking back the Buckeyes have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent.

OSU took out Tennessee 42-17 in the first round, while the Ducks earned a first-round by by winning the Big Ten Championship in their first year in the conference.

But OSU looked dominant defensively vs. the Vols, posting four sacks. The Buckeyes own the No. 1 defense in the country.

The Ducks took out Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship, but look for "rest" to lead to "rust" to begin with.

I'm prediciting a completely difference overall "pace" than what the majority is perceiving.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Texas/ASU.

Arizona State looks really overmatched here. The Sun Devils have two great players in QB Sam Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo, but this Texas defense is on another level.

ASU did struggle already against good defensive teams that can stop the run, but the Longhorns are on an entirely different level.

I look for Texas to go up early and then grind out a victory here, but look for this overall pace to lead to a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL QUARTERFINAL GOY on Penn State.

I don't foresee any upsets here, as I look for the Nittany Lions to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, and not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Penn State advanced by beating No. 11 SMU 38-10, and I'm envision a similar final discrepancy here as well vs. the Broncos.

Boise State advanced after receiving a bye following winning the MW Conference.

The Nittany Lion's defense was on point in its last game, and I believe that Boise State will have a very difficult time even moving the ball today. 

Overall Penn State averages 33.9 PPG, and concedes just 15.9.

Boise State averages 39.1 PPG, while allowing 21.9.

I really like Maddux Madsen and what he's done to this point, but this will be BY FAR the best defense he's likely ever seen in his career.

I can't see the Broncos keeping pace whatsoever.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is PENN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL BLOWOUT PLAY on the UNDER Bama/Michigan.

Everyone and their grandmother is expecting a high-scoring shootout, but I don't see it that way. Two storied schools collide here early in the Reliaquest Bowl, and in my opinion, everything points to more of a defensive battle than what the majority have backed already.

Both teams are out of the College Football Playoff and I have a hard time seeing either being too motivated for this Bowl Game on Saturday afternoon.

Bama missing out on the expanded 12-team CFP is a shocker and I believe the team will simply go through the motions here. 

The Wolverines won the National title last year, but struggled with consistency from game-to-game this season under new head coach Sherrone Moore. They especially struggled at the QB position. 

Each team though had its fair share of offensive difficulties this year, but each was above-average defensively, each ranking in the Top 20 overall.

Look for these defenses to "carry the show" on Saturday afternoon in this one. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Missouri moneyline.

Iowa is 131st in the nation in passing offense. So it's not going to be great news here playing without starting QB Cade McNamara, who has moved on to the transfer portal.

The Tigers are 77th in the nation in passing offense, and they'll have their starting QB Brady Cook. They're down their No. 1 receiver, but otherwise, Missouri is pretty much 100% intact.

The Tigers' defense is above average as well.

Look for MISSOURI to find a way to pull off a straight-up win today.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL GOM on Louisiana.

I've won back-to-back Bowl games, deftly picking and choosing my spots, going against teams that have been hit hard by the transfer portal or other reasons since the end of the regular season.

And that's once against the case here in the New Mexico Bowl between Louisiana and TCU. Just like the last two days, you may want to sprinkle a little on the moneyline, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

The Cajuns will have their starting QB Ben Woolridge under center, and he had 2,392 passing yards, 17 TD's and five INT's. The defense was sharp as well, surrendering a Sun Belt-low 6.2 yards per pass attempts and 23.4 PPG overall.

TCU on the other hand allowed 26.5. But the high-powered offense that averaged 33.4 PPG takes a major step back here with several key players gone to the transfer portal, including leading rusher Cameron Cook, and their top two receivers. 

Louisiana's weakness on defense is stopping the run, but with Cook gone, the Horned Frogs will be hard-pressed to improve upon their already mediocre 3.7 yards per carry average. 

The Cajuns's strength is against the pass, but with their top two receivers gone, where is the offense going to come from?

Look for Woolridge to pull it together and keep it super tight throughout. Grab the points, the play is LOUISIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ARMED FORCES BOWL BLOWOUT on Navy.

I honestly think that Navy has a legit shot at winning this one outright. That said, my official call is to grab as many points as you can.

A great situational play here. Much like Pittsburgh yesterday, Oklahoma enters this one ravaged by the transfer portal, including missing their starting QB, most of the WR corps and several key defensive starters.

Navy on the other hand enters at near 100% capacity and off back-to-back solid victories, including a 31-13 win over Navy in the annual Army/Navy game as a six-point dog.

The Midshipmen are playing with a collective chip on their shoulder.

Grab the points, the play is NAVY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL PLAY on Toledo.

I was on an internet gambling podcast this week and gave out Toledo as a "FREE PLAY" on that segment. I liked that pick when I gave it out then, but I have now upgraded it to full "client" status here.

Just a great situational spot bet overall (you may want to consider sprinkling a very small amount on the ML as well.) But the official call here is to grab as many points as you can.

Both teams finished the regular season at 7-5. Pitt finished with a 34-23 road loss at Boston College, while Toledo stumbled 21-14 at Akron as a 9.5-point road favorite in its regular season finale.

So, both teams backed their way into this Bowl game, but it's the Panthers who enter having been hit really hard by the transfer portal, and Toledo only going to miss a few players for this one and none of any consequence.

Pittsburgh won its first seven games and even cracked the Top 25, but then it lost five straight.

The Panthers will come into this one missing 15 players, with three injured and 12 hitting the transfer portal.

Quarterback Eli Holstein SHOULD be back for this one after getting injured in the Syracuse game, but his backup Nate Yarnell has already moved on, and so if Holstein isn't 100% or can't play, then it'll be freshman David Lynch under center and he's thrown just nine passes all year.

This game is being played in Detroit, which is right in the middle of MAC territory, so the Rockets will have a lot of fans behind them in this one.

Tucker Gleason has started every game this year for Toldedo and he has a solid 2,455 passing yards and a 22 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio. 

Look for TOLEDO'S depth to be the difference-maker in this one and grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST ROUND ROUT on SMU.

The bottom line here is that I think that SMU is really undervalued. It has the offense and the defense to win this game outright.

Penn State's only two losses came against elite teams, falling against Ohio State and Oregon. 

SMU has two victories vs. ranked opponents this season.

Kevin Jennings is definitely an under the radar QB this season for the Mustangs. 

Note that SMU has not lost a game by more than three points all year, while Penn State has several "nail biting victories" this season, including a three point win over USC and a single-point victory over Minnesota. 

The Mustangs have scored at least 33 points in five straight games and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright, everything points to a comfortable cover with all of these points.

The play is SMU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL FIRST ROUND SIDE OF THE YEAR on Indiana.

Two really good teams with identical 7-1 records. That said, I feel that the Hoosiers have a legit shot at winning this one outright.

They enter with a huge chip on their shoulder, with their only loss coming on the road at then No. 2 Ohio State.

In the Irish lone loss, Notre Dame only averaged 4.4 YPC, significantly less than its 6.3 seasonal average. 

Notre Dame relies on the run for offensive production, and Indiana is No. 2 in the Nation in stopping the rush.

Even in the loss to OSU, Indiana limited the Buckeyes to just 4.0 YPC. 

Notre Dame is 27th in the nation in red zone efficiency, and Indiana is No. 1.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on the HOOSIERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL GOM on Georgia Southern.

Georgia Southern finished 8-4 and second in the East Division of the Sun Belt. The Eagles have just two players listed as inactive or injured. 

They averaged 28.2 points per game, led by quarterback JC French, who has 2,619 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

Jalen White had 654 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.

Georgia Southern's offense had to be good because its defense was its weak point, as it allowed an average of 27.3 points per game this season.

But here's the thing; Sam Houston, which was 9-3, only averaged 23.2 points per game and 354.7 yards of offense per contest (and the Bearkats will enter this one with 12 players listed inactive or injured or gone via the transfer portal.) 

Where the Bearkats thrived was on the defensive end this season, conceding just 20 points per game. But the unit will be missing a few key pieces, including leading tackler Caleb Weaver, as well as their leader in interceptions and their leader in quarterback sacks. So the defensive unit which was firing on all cylinders so well to close out the regular season is now completely just a shell of its former self for this one on Thursday night.

Not only that, but the offense will also be missing some players.

Sam Houston State quarterback Hunter Watson was mediocre at best this year with 1,598 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and eight INT's. 

But the Bearkats' offense will also be without three of their top four rushers from the regular season.

The bottom line here is that Sam Houston State has been brutalized here by the transfer portal on both sides of the line.

The Bearkats offense absolutely relies on its run game for production, but with three of their four top rushers out, I have a hard time seeing Sam Houston State keeping pace with Georgia Southern's high-flying offense.

Lay the points, the play is GEORGIA SOUTHERN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on UNLV moneyline.

UNLV finished 10-3 and narrowly missed out on the College Football Playoff, while Cal finished 6-6.

There's been plenty of change for both teams already following the regular season, but when you unpack it all, I really like UNLV on the moneyline in this one.

Cal ended the regular season by going 2-4 against the spread for bettors.

UNLV though has played well in this spot for bettors by going 10-3 against the spread in its last 13 as an underdog.

Cal finished .500 in its ACC debut, but it was more of the same in year 8 of the Justin Wilcox era.

UNLV just posted its two most successful seasons in school history, and because of that its head coach Barry Odom has now already moved on to take on the Purdue head coaching job.

And so, it's an interesting matchup between two programs dealing with transition.

But, UNLV enters this Bowl game off a great year. It just narrowly missed out on the CFP and the team retains its core group, including QB Hajj-Malik Williams who I think will really test this Cal defense with his dual threat capabilities.

Cal has a tough defense that likes to wear teams down, but the Bears enter without their starting QB Fernando Mendoza, who hits the transfer portal.

And the Bears' offense line has been suspect all year already, ranking among the worst in sacks allowed (which spells disaster facing UNLV's aggressive defense which is in the top 20 nationally for sacks.)

The Rebels face coaching uncertainties, but their consistency here at the quarterback position, combined with better skill players on both sides of the ball will prove to be the difference-maker in my opinion.

Lay the price with UNLV on the moneyline option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FRISCO BOWL TOTAL on the UNDER Memphis/WVU.

Both teams played to several higher-scoring games to close out the regular season, but player turnover and transfers, combined with the long lay off will lead to less efficent offenses here in my estimation.

Memphis only allows 22.8 PPG, and WVU concedes 31.1. 

I'm expecting the Tigers to dictate the pace of this one. WVU fired its head coach and has an interim and I just can't see the Mountaineers putting up huge numbers here.

Look for this total to fall well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOM on the OVER Clemson/SMU.

I'm expecting these two sides to push the pace and I believe this faster tempo will eventually lead to this total blasting past the number once it's all said and done.

With a spread like this, obviously the bookmakers believe these two teams are evenly matched. And for the most part they are. This one is a coin-flip as far as the side is concerned in my opinion, but these offenses are about to "steal the show." 

Clemson is 9-3 after having its three-game win streak snapped in a 17-14 home loss to South Carolina in its final regular-season game, but note that the Tigers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

SMU finished 11-1 and scored 48, 38, 33, and 38 points over its last four victories.

Look for Clemson's Cade Klubnik and Kevin Jennings to set the tone and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Oregon moneyline.

I'm going to suggest bypassing the spread, and just playing Oregon on the moneyline option.

Penn State is 11-1, but Oregon is 12-0. Oregon finished the season with a commanding 49-21 win over rival Washington, while Penn State crushed Maryland 44-7 in its regular season finale.

Penn is just happy to be here though. I guess that isn't true, but the Nittany Lions still had to pull off the upset over Ohio State to make it here. 

The Nittany Lions are ranked fourth in scoring in the Big Ten in averaging 33.3 PPG, while they conceded 14.

Ducks' QB Dillon Gabriel is going to be difference-maker in my opinion, as he enters with a 24:6 TD:INT. 

Overall Oregon averages 35.2 PPG, while conceding 16.2.

This is for a "bye" in the Football College Playoff, as the loser will almost assuredly be involved anyways.

That's good news for Penn State.

Look for Penn and Coach Franklin to once again be the "close but no cigar" runner-ups to the "better" team.

Play on OREGON on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOM on the UNDER Marshall/Louisiana.

It's 10-2 Louisiana vs. 9-3 Marshall for the Sun Belt Championship, and in my opinion, everything points to a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Marshall comes in on a six-game win streak. It just beat James Madison 35-33 in double OT last Saturday.

Braylon Braxton is great with a 17-2 TD:INT, but Marshall's defense is great as well in conceding only 24.3 PPG.

Louisiana has been sharp defensively in all conference games this season, conceding only 21.8 PPG.

Ben Woolridge has 17 TD's and five INT's for the Ragin Cajuns and as good as these two teams are offensive, in my opinion, the winner is the one that steps up and plays the best defense.

This one has the feel of being decided by field position and in the trenches and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the OVER UNLV/Boise State.

These teams play for the Mountain West title on Friday night and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Boise State beat UNLV 29-24 on October 25th, and that game stayed UNDER the number of 63.5. Now the Championship Game total is more than a full field goals worth of points lower, and it's now way too low in my estimation.

Note that looking back that UNLV has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent.

I'm absolutely expecting another very competitive battle between these evenly matched sides, but everything points to the rematch easily eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC GOM on Army.

Army finished off the year 10-1 SU. It hasn't played Tulane since 2020

The Green Wave finished 9-3 and they lost their final game of the year in a 34-24 setback at home to Memphis as 12.5-point favorites.

After that crushing defeat, I think the Green Wave are in store for another letdown here.

It's the third straight year that Tulane has made it to the Championship Game, beating UCF in 2022 and losing to SMU in 2023. 

Army's looking to become Conference Champ in its inaugural season.

These teams are evenly matched when you get right down to it, and I see this one as more of a "coin flip." 

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is ARMY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOM on the OVER WKU/Jacksonville State.

Jacksonville State is hosting WKU for the 2024 Conference USA Championship this coming weekend.

The Hilltoppers won 19-17 at home over Jacksonville State last weekend as 1-point favorites, the total staying WELL BELOW the posted number of 61 in that one.

Now just a week later these teams rematch and I'm absolutely expecting a completely different dynamic here.

And with the O/U set nearly a full FG lower than the final regular season game, I think we're getting great value here.

Note that Jacksonville State has also seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five off a SU/ATS conference road loss. 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT on New Mexico.

This is a great "situational" play. I'm going to suggest bypassing the spread though and instead just play the visitors on the MONEYLINE option.

Hawaii is now 4-7 after its 55-10 loss at Utah State. The Warriors have now officially been eliminated from bowl eligibility, and I believe that despite this being Senior Night, that they'll just go through the motions here in Week 13.

New Mexico though enters playing its best football of the season after B2B victories have pushed its record to 5-6. 

The last time these teams played the Lobos won 42-21. While Hawaii should be more competitive this time around, I'm still predicting a lop-sided final outcome here.

Lay the price, the play is NEW MEXICO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EARLY ROUT on NC State.

North Carolina State is still just 5-6 SU after back-to-back losses. It beat UNC 39-20 at home last year.

The Tar Heels became Bowl-eligible with a 31-24 win over Wake at home, but they fell 41-21 last week at BC as 2.5-point favorites.

Now 6-5, I believe they're going to have their hands full here once again vs. the do or die WolfPack.

Clearly, with a spread like this, the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. And if you do dive deeper into their numbers, they very much are even. But NC State will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the upset.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is NC STATE. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Maryland/Penn State.

Both teams have been involved in a few higher-scoring games of late, but I think that the conditions are right here for each to play to a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring outcome at Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions are 10-1. They've seen the total go OVER in two straight following last week's 26-25 win at Minnesota. 

Maryland is 4-7 though and now has nothing to play for here after last wek's 29-13 loss at home to Iowa, the Terps fourth straight SU loss.

Maryland has especially struggled offensively the last few weeks. That wil continue here at Penn State, as the Nittany Lions will go up early, and then coast to victory.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Oregon State.

The Beavers were 4-6 last weekend, but then they upset Washington State 41-38 as 10.5-point underdogs. They're now 5-6. 

I'm not calling for another outright or anything, but I'm absolutely expecting a similar effort from the visiting side here in Week 13. 

Boise State?!

It's 10-1 and it has bigger aspirations on its mind. But it had to hold on for dear life in last week's 17-13 win at Wyoming as a 22.5-point fav and I believe the Broncos will struggle to cover the bigger number once again on Saturday afternoon as well.

A great situational play. Grab the points, the play is OREGON STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Wisconsin moneyline.

Week 13 and there is a lot on the line for some teams. Including 5-6 Wisconsin.

The Baders have one last opportunity to try and punch eligibility and a resounding victory on their home field on Senior Night would go a long way in securing that.

The Gophers are 6-5 and have lost two in a row. They were six point favs in a 26-19 loss at Rutgers, and then they almost bounced back with a win in a 26-25 home loss to PSU as 10.5-point dogs.

Now here on the road facing this desperate home side, everything points to another letdown in my opinion.

The play is WISCONSIN on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Miami Ohio/Bowling Green.

Bowling Green is 7-4 after five straight wins. The Green Falcons have seen the total go UNDER in three straight after their most recent 38-13 win over Ball State, but note that looking back Miami Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Miami Ohio is 7-4 overall as well and it's won six in a row. The RedHawks have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, which is clearly why the general betting public has been quick to jump on another lower-scoring battle.

But with so much on the line as far as positioning is concerned in the conference, I'm expecting these teams to finally put some points on the board.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOW on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane.

This is an important game for both sides and I'm expecting a really defensive battle because of it.

Memphis is 9-2 and looking to keep the momentum rollinghere after a 53-18 win over UAB last time. Which was in fact two weeks ago. Look for rest to lead to "rust" here for this offense.

Tulane is 9-2 and off a 35-0 win over Navy two weeks ago. The Green Wave and Tigers are fighting for top spot here and the last time they tangled, the Green Wave won by a score of 31-21 last October. The total went UNDER the number in that one, and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score this season as well.

With so much on the line and here on the National Stage, everything points to a tight, lower-scoring UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on Fresno State MONEYLINE.

I am going to be selective with my College Footbal picks over the final couple weeks of the regular season. I'm gearing up for a big Bowl season, and am really looking forward to it.

That said, there's going to be lots of great "situational" plays to deftly take advantage of from the College Gridiron, and this particular one here on Fresno State is one of them. If you don't like laying chalk, then don't. Play the home side on the spread option, as I also really like the Bulldogs ATS.

However, I feel that the safer call is to lay what I feel is still a reasonable price for the home side to just win this game straight-up.

Fresno Stae is 5-5 after back-to-back close losses, falling 21-20 here at home to Hawaii as a 12-point favorite, then dropping a 36-28 setback at Air Force two weeks ago as a 9.5-point favorite. 

The bye week simply could not have come at a better time for Fresno State, which will have a very difficult game at UCLA to end the season. The Bruins are currently 4-6, and if the manage to beat USC this weekend, they'll be seeking their sixth win to punch bowl-eligiblity on their final regular season home game.

And so that clearly puts added incentive onto Frenso State to get the job done here at home as the favorite.

Colorado State is 7-3, and it's coming off five straight SU victories. In all five of those games it ws a favorite.

Now here on the road and with a "cream puff" at home vs. the 3-7 Aggies on Senior Night to close out the regular season, not only does this set up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors, but also a look-ahead.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheel-house so to speak.

The official call is to grab FRESNO STATE on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on North Carolina State.

I'm banking on 5-5 NC State keeping this one competitive enough down the stretch to comfortably sneak in through the back door with all these points.

Georgia Tech is now 6-4 after its 28-23 upset home win over Miami two weeks ago. Talk about a classic letdown spot in my opinion. They pull off the major upset and become bowl-eligible, only to then have a week off. Next week they're at Georgia, which will be a highly televised affair, and also presents itself as being a classic "look-ahead" position for the visitors as well.

Do or die for CJ Bailey and company though. So far he has 1,794 passing yards and a 12:5 TD:INT. 

It's a great time of the year to be a "situational" capper.

Grab the points, the play is NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC GOY on Georgia.

It's a massive matchup in the SEC, with 8-1 Tennessee on the road to take 7-2 Georgia. These teams met last year as well and Georgia won by a score of 38-10, and I'm predicting a similar final combined score here as well.

Georgia will be especially pissed this weekend after last week's 28-10 loss at Ole Miss. Tennessee is off the 33-14 win over Mississippi State.

Vols QB Nico Iamaleava is set to go after leaving last week's game with concussion like symptoms, but one has to wonder if Tennssee is rushing their star pivot back into action too quickly?!

Georgia needs to win this game, the rest of its games and get some help to be included in the CFP, but one task at a time obviously. Look for coach Kirby Smart to have Carson Beck properly prepared this weekend.

I think home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one as well.

Lay the points, the play is GEORGIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOW on the UNDER Syracuse/Cal.

This one sets up great from a number of different angles to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout in my opinion.

Cal is a sizeable fav at home here as it enters 5-4 after back-to-back victories, most recently a 46-36 win a Wake Forest. Dating to last year though Cal has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Syracuse is 6-3. One week after claiming eligibility in a 38-31 OT win over Virginia Tech, the Orange came up short in last week's 37-31 road loss at BC. Syracuse though has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four off a SU/ATS road loss.

I'm expecting Kyle McCord and this Orange offense to play more conservatively here on the road vs. Cals No. 17 overall ranked defense. The Bears though are just 77th in red zone offense this season.

Everything points to the UNDER as the savvy call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* VALUE PLAY on the UNDER FAU/Temple.

I love the way this one sets up to more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. 

FAU is 2-7. Temple is 2-7. Neither team has anything to play for here. Temple has officially already thrown in the towel on its season after last week's pathetic 52-6 loss at Tulane.

FAU fell 49-14 at ECU. The Pirates are terrible defensively, just last week allowing 31 points to 3-7 Tulsa, but the Owls' offense has also raised the white flag.

With each side going through the motions like I suspect, everthing does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call in this matchup.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Arizona on the moneyline.

We've reached the point of the season where there is so much going on, that I'll have to keep my analysis very succinct. 

The bottom line here, is it's do or die time for Arizona, as it's 3-6 after five straight losses and with only three games remaining. 

Houston is 4-5 after consecutive victories as an underdog, most recently a 24-19 shocker over K-State. 

Each has really tough opponents after this to finish the season, so this is their last best chance at another winnable contest, but that said, I can't understate how important I feel that the home field advantage will play for the Wildcats in this one. 

Note that looking back finds Arizona 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Let's bypass the spread and instead take the WILDCATS on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER UCLA/Washington.

We've reached the point of the season where there is so much going on, that I'll have to keep my analysis very succinct. 

UCLA has is 4-5 after three straight wins, and a Bowl Berth is now in its reach in its first year in the Big Ten. Note that dating to last year though the Bruins have seen the total go OVER in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched, and for the most part they definitely are, looking at their numbers on both ends of the field confirm that. The Bruins are running out of opportunities and can't sit back and wait for Washington to make the first mistake. Instead, as the dog they'll have to push the pace from start to finish.

Washington is 5-5 after going just 1-3 in its last four. It's off a listless 35-6 loss at PSU. Dating to last year though the Huskies have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the above-listed numbers/trends all point to this being a very wide-open offensive "shootout."

This nubmer is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER UNT/UTSA.

We've reached the point of the season where there is so much going on, that I'll have to keep my analysis very succinct. 

UNT is 5-4 after three straight losses. It's running out of time to become eligible. It is coming off a 14-3 loss to Army, but prevoiusly had seen the total go OVER in six straight. Clearly the Mean Green are going to be able to move the ball much more effectively this week vs. UTSA, but note that UNT has still seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU losses in a row dating to last year.

UTSA is 4-5 and it's traded wins/losses over its last four games. Despite 44-36 win vs. Memphis last week which saw the total go OVER the number for a fourth straight time, note that the Road Runners have seen the total go UNDER the number still in five of their last seven dating to last yar after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

This is a big game for each team and I'm expecting it to be a lot more defensive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOM on the UNDER ECU/Tulsa.

I base my picks on many different things. Sometimes I look at every single angle possible, including individual player matchups, coaching tendencies, trends and scheduling.

Other times I employ the "Keep It Simple Stupid," or KISS method. And that's the case here. 

It's just a great overall "situational" play. 

ECU is 5-4 and on the cusp of eligibility after back-to-back high-scoring wins. The Pirates have in fact seen the total go OVER in four straight, but note that despite the total eclipsing the posted number in last week's 49-14 home win over FAU, the Pirates have still seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Tulsa has its back against the wall after a 59-21 loss at UAB last time out. The Golden Hurricane are now 3-6 with three games remaining to move to .500. They have to run the table, which clearly isn't going to happen. 

But with so much on the line here from each side, I say that everything from a situational stand point does indeed point to this being a lower-scoring defensive UNDER once its all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on EMU.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse so to speak.

I've had a lot of success looking for these types of situations in past years, and already this season as well that's been the case.

And that's where one team is on the cusp of needing eligibility with one or two more wins, and the other team involved has just clinched eligiblity with its sixth win.

And so that's exactly the case here.

Eastern Michigan is just 5-4 straight up after back-to-back losses. The Eagles almost pulled off the massive upset last week against Toledo falling 29-28 as ten point underdogs. Eastern Michigan has consistently been undervalued this year by the oddsmakers as it's 7-2 against the spread though.

The Eagles fell 34-26 to Ohio as 8-point dogs the last time these teams played, but that was back in 2021.

Ohio comes in at 6-3 and it just posted its sixth win, a 41-0 victory at Kent State as 20.5-point favorites. I say this sets up as a classic LETDOWN spot for the Bobcats.

Situationally it sets up really well for Eastern Michigan. It proved last week it can play really well in an underdog role and its back is now against the wall as it looks for that sixth win.

I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, but in my opinion everything points to a comfortable cover with all those points, so I'm on EASTERN MICHIGAN in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC GOY on CMU.

Central Michigan is 3-6 after four straight losses. It's do or die, now or never for eligibility with only three games remaining. Am I suggesting that the Chips actually have a shot at winning this one outright?

Of course not. But it simply sets up super well for CMU to comfortably cover with the large spread that they've been afforded.

Toledo is the better team at 6-3. It's been trading wins/losses over its last seven games, and after holding on for the 29-28 win at EMU as a ten-point favorite last time out to become eligible, I think this pattern could in fact continue here.

That said, this one absolutley sets up as a natural letdown spot for the home side after earning that sixth win last week, while CMU will be risking life and limb from start to finish to try and pull off the upset.

CMU averages 25.4 PPG, and while it's had some QB turnover, RB Marion Luke will be able to keep the opposition honest today, as he ran for 118 yards last week.

Grab as many points as you can, the play is CMU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOW on the UNDER Ball State/Buffalo.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting more of a defensive battle finally on Tuesday. 

It's a great situational play overall. Ball State is now 3-6 after a 27-21 setback at home to Miami Ohio last week. The Cardinals only have three games remaining in the season, and need to sweep for a shot at Bowl-eligibility. 

Buffalo snapped a two-game slide with a 41-30 win over Akron and at 5-4, the Bulls need just one more win to become eligible. What better spot than right here at home than against Ball State?

That said, I'm not sure if Buffalo will be able to cover this spread vs. this desperate visiting side.

But note that the Bulls have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

The last thing that the Cardinals can do is turn this into a shootout with Buffalo and with each side putting an added emphasis onto the run game like I believe they will to limit mistakes and alleviate pressure, while also taking into account the rest of the above listed factors/trends, then the UNDER is the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 GOY on Utah.

BYU is 8-0 and Utah is 4-4. The Cougars have College Playoff aspirations on their minds, while the Utes need to hit the panic button now to earn two more wins to become eligible.

Nearly 75% of the money is on the visiting side and it's already 7-1 ATS. As a situational capper, who is also a contrarian at heart, this one falls right into my wheel house so to speak. 

The Cougars' Jake Retzlaff has been decent, but not perfect with 1,872 passing yards and an 18:7 TD:INT. 

I like Isaac Wilson (1,200 yards, 8:8 TD:INT) to keep this one competitive at home.

This is a rivalry and in a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Georgia on the moneyline.

I'm going to suggest bypassing the spread option and instead just play Georgia on the moneyline to win this one straight-up.

Georgia is 7-1, while Ole Miss is 7-2.

The Bulldogs are dominating on both ends of the field right now, most recently hammering Florida 34-20 last week.

Ole Miss is off two straight wins after a 29-26 OT loss at LSU, most recently a 63-31 win at Arkansas. 

But the Razorbacks' defense is a joke and the Bulldogs' enter on top form in that department.

Look for GEORGIA to dig deep and find a way to deliver the goods on Saturday afternoon.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER Michigan/Indiana.

Michigan is 5-4. It needs just one more win to become eligible. Overall though the defending champs are just 1-3 in their last four and off a 38-17 loss at home to No. 1 Oregon.

Now it travels to 9-0 Indiana, with the Hoosiers off a 47-10 win at MSU. 

This is a big game for both teams. But the Wolverines are up against another really difficult defense, as Indiana has conceded just 34 combined points over its last three victories.

Everything points to this one being decided by field position and by the men in the trenches. 

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOM on Georgia Tech.

A really great situational bet here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything.

But this is a "trap game" for Miami in my esimtation. It's 9-0 and hasn't been tested. It's schedule has been pretty simple, as it has been a favorite in every game.

It has next week off. It's a letdown/look-ahead spot and that = trap game!

Georgia Tech is 5-4. It needs just one more win to become eligible. Its lost two straight though against some really tough competition and it has two more tough games after this at home vs. an equally as desperate NC State, followed by a throw-away game at Georgia to close out.

The Yellow Jackets will be looking to pull off the upset here. Let's grab the points. The play is GEORGIA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Iowa/UCLA.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating a much more defensive battle on Friday night between these division rivals.

Iowa is 6-3 and now eligible after last week's 42-10 win over Wisconsin. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight, but a major mental letdown is imminent after qualifying in my estimation and now hitting the road after two straight home games.

No such luxury for UCLA though, which needs to win three games out of its next four to go 6-6. That however will be easier said than done with games at Washington and vs. USC and Fresno State to end the year.

UCLA struggled against Minnesota here in its last home game back on October 12th, falling 21-17, and now facing a similar style offense, everything points to a similar final combined score.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT GOM on Coastal Carolina (moneyline.)

My Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR came last week on Appalachian State over ODU. This week though I like Coastal Carolina to find a way to deliver the goods at home.

The Mountaineers are now 4-4 and still in contention for a bowl game with three games remaining. After this they head home to face 6-2 James Madison, and then they finish at 6-3 Georgia Southern.

This is Appalachian State's best chance at earning another win, as it'll be a sizeable dog in the next two games. App State though is just 1-2 on the road and an imminent letdown appears imminent to me.

Coastal Carolina is also 4-4, but the Chanticleers are off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row and will be risking life and limb here to snap the slide. Also note that CC has performed well in this spot for bettors since last season, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Look a little closer at App State's numbers last week, and we find that I got a bit "lucky," as the Mountaineers were outgained 396 to 498 yards against ODU.

CC lost to Coastal Carolina 38-24 to Troy, but I think it bounces back here. QB Ethan Vasko has 1,401 passing yards and a decent 9:4 TD:INT.

Look for CC to find a way to win this one and snap the three-game slide.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER NIU/WMU.

I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring UNDER, rather than a high-scoring shootout with some classic MACTION here on Wednesday night in November.

Northern Illinois is 4-4 and running out of time to become eligible. It's lost two straight as well, most recently a 25-23 setback at Ball State. It won 24-0 over WMU at home last year at this time, and while I expect a bit more scoring here, I do indeed believe we'll have another really defensive battle this season as well.

Western Michigan is now 5-3 after four straight wins, it has seen the total go OVER in five straight now after last week's 52-21 win over Kent State. But that fact Lenny is important to note as the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row dating to last season.

With the majority expecting another shootout, I'm going the other way believe that the numbers/trends all clearly point to a lower-scoring defensive UNDER in this matchup on Wednesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOY on the UNDER Bowling Green/CMU.

This is a great situational play on the "under" in my opinion. I love betting College Football at this time of year, because evaluating emotion and motivation are two situational factors that I excel at.

This is a big game for both teams. Bowling Green is 4-4 and running out of time to become Bowl-eligible. Same for 3-5 CMU. The Chips are off a 46-7 loss to Miami Ohio, while Bowling Green beat Toledo 41-26.

The Falcons' defense has 20 sacks this season and I think that CMU will likely once again have difficulties moving the ball today.

Bowling Green only allows 22 PPG, and I can't see the home side coming close to that.

That said, in a contest that I see being decided by field position and by the men in the trenches, everything does indeed point to a lower-scoring UNDER as far as the final combined score is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOM on the OVER UNC/Florida State.

Here is a great "situational" play on what I anticipate will be a wide-open shootout.

Clearly, the Seminoles have nothing to lose here at this point (except another game!), as they enter well out of contention at 1-7. They're coming off three straight UNDERS after last week's 36-14 loss at Miami, but that's significant to note as dating to last season Florida State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight (75% of the time) after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

UFC finally broke its four-game slide with a big 41-14 win at UVA last weekend. I had UNC in that one. The offense was firing on all cylindres and there's no reason not to believe that won't be the case again here as the Tar Heels try to take advantage and earn a valuable win in their quest for a Bowl berth. 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN BOB on Michigan State.

I had a play on Michigan last weekend, but I love the way this one now sets up for the Spartans. While an outright win isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

As primarily a situational capper, this one really does set up well for MSU, as I think Indiana is now overvalued here and it'll take the foot off the gas in the second half.

Indiana is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. It's rolling along, but with a home game vs. Michigan (the defending champs!) up next, followed by a game at OSU and finishing off with the Boilermakers at home, not only does this set up as natural "letdown" spot, but also a "look ahead." 

This is a classic "trap" game for the Hoosiers.

I'm not calling for an outright, but I do think it'll "come down to the wire."

Grab the points, the play is MICHIGAN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT GOY on Appalachian State.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheel-house. 

ODU is 4-4 and off three straight victories. The Monarchs are No. 1 in the Sunbelt currently, but note that they're just 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses dating to last year.

With their bye week up next, not only do I think ODU has a letdown after three straight victories, but I also believe it gets caught looking ahead. This is a trap game for the visitors. 

App State is 3-4 and running out of opportunities now to become eligible, with tough upcoming games at CCU, at home vs. JMU and the finishing the season at Georgia Southern.

I expect the home side to risk like and limb here in this "must win" scenario. Let's bypass the spread option though and just play APP STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Memphis/UTSA.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring outcome finally here early on Saturday in Week 10.

Memphis is now 7-1 after its most recent 33-28 win over Charlotte. It's seen the total go OVER in two straight. Both games were at home vs. UNT and Charlotte. In their last road game at USF, the Tigers won 21-3. I expect a similar sort of game-plan here in Week 10 at UTSA.

The Roadrunners are now 3-5 after a tight 46-45 loss at Tulsa last weekend. While UTSA has indeed seen the total fly OVER in three straight now, note that dating to last season the Roadrunners have seen the total dip below the number in three of their last four following three or more OVERs in a row.

A great situational play here on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOY on the UNDER Tulane/Charlotte.

As primiarly a "situational" capper, we've hit the "meat and potatoes" part of the season and this one falls right in my "wheel house."

It's a big game for each side, but with the majority expecting another high-scoring shootout, I actually feel the value swings the other way here between two teams that I expect will push the pace from start to finish.

The Green Wave are now eligible after moving to 6-2 with their fifth straight win. They've been alternating low-scoring games with high-scoring ones, and after last week's 45-37 shootout at UNT, I expect this strong pattern to continue here on the road vs. the 49ers.

Charlotte will be desperate to snap a two-game slide and to get back on track sitting at 3-5. The 49ers have seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but that's significant to note for us as Charlotte has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

I expect field position to play a bit part in determining the winner in this one and I overall expect this pace to produce a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA GOW on Liberty.

Liberty is now 5-1 after a 27-24 loss at Kennesaw State as a 26.5-point favorite last weekend. On the cusp of punching their ticket to a bowl and looking for a big placement at the end of the season, the Flames came up short in humbling fashion.

With that "brain fart" out of the way, I look for the Flames to rally here and to find a way to get the job done. Despite being 5-1 SU, Liberty is just 1-5 ATS. The Flames have consistently been overvalued by the oddsmakers and by the majority of the general betting public, but not this week.

Note that Liberty has performed well in this spot for bettors in the past, going 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite.

Jacksonville State is now the one primed for the letdown after four straight victories. The Gamecocks beat MU 42-20 last weekend to move to 4-3. Tyler Huff has looked decent of late, but the Gamecocks still concede 29.3 PPG.

The Flames are on the other hand only concede 22.2 PPG, while averaging 34.7 at home. 

Clearly I feel that the outright win is a possibility, but in the end let's grab as many points as we can with LIBERTY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOM on the OVER Louisiana Tech/Sam Houston.

As primarily a situational capper, this one sets up well to be more of a high-scoring "shootout," rather than a lower-scoring "duel" in my opinion.

Louisiana Tech is 3-4 and in need of some victories to become bowl-eligible. 

It's been trading wins/losses over its last four games. It's off the 14-10 win over UTEP, but previously fell 33-30 in OT at NMSU. I see a similar final combined score here as well on the road at Sam Houston.

The Bearcats are now eligible after their 10-7 win at FIU last weekend. But when these teams played last year, Sam Houston posted the 42-27 road win at Louisiana Tech, and I'm predicting a similar final outcome here as well.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW MON$TER on Hawaii moneyline.

It's a big game for each team. Nevada is just 3-5, while Hawaii is 2-5. But if recent history is any precedence, then the Warriors have to be loving their chances today as they look for a third straight win in this series. Last year they won 27-14 as 3.5-point road dogs. Now back at home bypassing the spread, I think the value for sure here lies on the home side in this one once again.

Nevada somehow managed to beat Oregon State 43-27 at home in Week 7, but then came out and lost 24-21 to Fresno State last weekend.

Last week they had just 84 yards rushing, while QB Brendon Lewis had 158 yards and a TD. Lewis though is questionable to play this weekend because of injury:

“I think that if he (Lewis) is not able to go this week, multiple quarterbacks play in this game,” Nevada coach Jeff Choate said. “If he can’t go, whoever has the best week is going to get the start. But there is going to be a role for both of those guys in the game.” 

That doesn't sound too great to me!

Last week QB Brayden Schager went 20 of 30 for 196 yards, a TD and a pick. Look for those numbers to improve dramatically here.

The play is HAWAII on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOODBATH on Michigan.

The defending champs are now 4-3 after consecutive losses, most recently a 21-7 setback against Illinois. With extremly tough upcoming games vs. Oregon, at IU, vs. Northwestern and at OSU to end the season, the Wolverines are running out of time to punch their ticket to eligibility.

So here's the perfect familar opponent to do that against. 

MSU is 4-3 as well after it broke a three-game slide in last week's 32-20 win at home over Iowa as a 6.5-point dog. 

The Spartans have a couple more opportunities still at the end of the regular season vs. Purdue and Rutgers at home, and with that in the back of their minds, I'm expecting a predictable letdown in this difficult road venue.

A great situational play on MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the OVER Utah/Houston.

Utah is 4-3 after three straight losses. Dating to last year though the Utes have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Houston is 2-5 and now running out of chances to earn a bowl. The Cougars are off the 42-14 loss at KU. 

Utah is off the 13-7 loss to TCU. Both teams' offenses have struggled to this point, but I expect each side to really be opening up the playbook here. Utah's Isaac Wilson has thrown for 1,029 yards, seven TD's and eight INT's.

Overall the Utes are conceding 20.5 PPG. That's good news for Houston QB Donovan Smith, who has 867 yards passing, four TD's and eight INT's. The Cougars have struggled on the defensive thoug, conceding 30.2 PPG.

With both teams hungry to break out here after frustrating performances, I'm expecting this total to fly well OVER the number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on UNC.

UNC is 3-4 and running out of time to punch a ticket to the Bowl season. It's 0-6-1 ATS, but now I think the value has finally swung in favor of the Tar Heels.

UNC is off four straight losses, most recently a tight 41-34 setback here at home to Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels' bye could not have come at a better time as they look to regroup and try to earn three more wins.

They'll have a few opportunities to do that as well over their remaining five games, and this one here in UVA is one of them. 

Virginia is 4-3 after back-to-back losses, falling 24-20 here to Louisville, then 48-31 at Clemson last weekend. UVA beat UNC 31-27 as a 24-point road dog last year, so the Tar Heels also play with a sense of revenge.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. And they are. But with the majority of the public on the home side here, I'm going contrarian and expecting the Tar Heels to, at the very least, find a way to cover with the points.

The play is UNC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Rutgers/USC.

Rutgers is 4-3 after three straight losses. It needs two more wins to qualify for a Bowl and time is running out. Its last two games have flown over the number. Note that Rutgers has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row dating to last season.

USC enters in even more dire straights, on a three-game losing streak as well, but sitting at 3-4 now after last week's 29-28 loss at Maryland as a seven-point favorite.

That result is also important to take note of, as dating to last season the Trojans have seen the total dip below the posted number in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were a favorite.

The Knights and QB Athan Kaliakmanis average are only averaging 26.6 PPG, but make up for it on the other end by conceding just 22.3.

That's good news for hte Trojans who are averaging 30.3 PPG, while allowing 22. QB Miller Moss is now Caleb Williams and continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOW on the OVER Georgia Southern/ODU.

Georgia Southern needs just one more win to become eligible, sitting at 5-2, while ODU has some work to do at 3-4. With each team pushing the pace like I'm expecting, the OVER is the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

The Monarchs come in off a quality 24-14 win over Texas State, where dual-threat QB Colton Joseph threw for 130 yards, while also rushing for 111 yards and three TD's.

Georgia Southern is off the 28-14 win over James Madison and I think the Eagles will be able to duplicate that offensive performance. Overall the Eagles average 32.9 PPG, while conceding 28.1.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Liberty/Kennesaw State.

I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Liberty is 5-0 SU, but after a 31-24 OT win over FIU at home as a 16-point favorite last time out, we can expect Liberty to not get caught looking past this opportunity as a huge favorite on the road.

The Flames' defense has looked shaky the last two weeks, giving up 48 points to a couple of pretty weak teams.

At 0-6, The Owls would also qualify as a weak team. Kennesaw State is off the 14-5 loss at Middle Tennessee State, but in its previous game it fell 63-24 to Jacksonville State.

Look for Liberty to run up the score in the first half so that the second unit can get time in the second. Also look for the Owls to get plenty of points in "garbage time."

A great situational play on the OVER. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOW on the UNDER UTEP/Louisiana Tech.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I think these bottom-feeders will finally play to more of a defensive battle on Tuesday night.

UTEP is just 1-6. It won't be going bowling. It is however coming in off its first win of the season in last week's 30-21 home victory over FIU as 7-point dogs.

The Miners have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that dating to last season UTEP has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Over their previous four games UTEP's high was 21 points vs. Sam Houston State, but I have a hard time seeing the Miners even reach that amount this weekend.

Louisiana Tech is just 2-4 and it's off a 33-30 OT loss at New Mexico State as a 12-point favorite. That's also significant to take note of though, as the Bulldogs have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four off a SU/ATS road loss as favorites.

The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this being a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW DOG OF THE MONTH on Air Force.

Colorado State is 3-3 SU/ATS, while Air Force is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but with the general betting public overwhelmingly on the visiting side, I do indeed feel that the value has finally swung the other way.

The Rams are off the 31-24 win over SJSU last weekend with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ging for 269 passing yards and one TD. 

The Falcons though have won seven straight in this series.

The Falcons enter off a 52-37 loss to New Mexico, but that defense catches a break this week facing the Rams. 

Look for the hungry Falcons to keep this one tight down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is AIR FORCE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOY on the UNDER Ball State/Vanderbilt.

Everyone in the Nation suddenly is a Vanderbilt fan after the Commodores beat Alabama in a huge upset.

Vandy then followed that victory up with another upset over Kentucky as a 14-point dog. 

Vanderbilt only allowed 13 points to the Wildcats and I expect that defensive momentum to get carried over here. The Commodores are a huge favorite here, and typically I'll never play such large spreads.

But the total looks WAY off to me. WAY too high. Ball State is just 2-4 and while ALL SIX of its games have flown OVER the number this season, after just their second win of the year in last week's 37-35 victory at Kent. An imminent letdown appears imminent though. 

Just can't see the Cardinals moving the ball effectively at all against this improved Vanderbilt side. Don't see the Commodores keeping the foot on the gas in the second half either.

While the majority of the public goes one way with this total, I'm going the other. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ACC TOP DOG on NC State.

NC State is 3-4 SU, but 0-7 ATS. Bettors are quick to jump on Cal in this one, but I think the Wolfpack can keep it interesting and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large amount of points that they've been afforded in this one.

Cal is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS after falling 17-15 at Pitt last week, covering with the 3.5-points. The Golden Bears have now dropped three straight.

The Wolfpack have dropped three of four as well, most recently a 24-17 setback at home to Syracuse. QB CJ Bailey had 329 yards and two TD's, along with 28 rushing yards. He made a costly INT at the end of the game, but otherwise he looked good filling in for the injured Crayson McCall.

NC State averages 26.3 PPG, while conceding 382 yards per contest. The unit averages 2 ackes per game and it has forced 11 turnovers.

The Bears average 24.2 PPG, while conceding 17.8. QB Fernando Mendoza has an 8:3 TD:INT.

With the majority of the betting public going one way, I'm going the other. Grab the points, the play is NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Miami/Louisville.

Miami is off a bye after its 39-38 road win at Cal. I say the bye could not have come at a worse time though and that the momentum from that improbable victory is now gone for sure.

Louisville is off a 24-20 win over UVA on the road this past Saturday, unable to cover the 7-point spread. However, I envision a similar final combined score in this contest as well.

The Hurricanes enter 6-0 and with two full weeks to prepare for this contest. Miami is so far averaging 47.7 PPG, but it only concedes 18.8.

Louisville is 4-2 and it averages 36.2 PPG, while conceding just 19.7.

These two teams now face two of the best defenses they've faced all season and in my opinion, this dynamic will help in pushing this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC GOY on ECU.

East Carolina is 3-3 SU after a 55-42 loss at Charlotte two weeks ago. Coming out of their bye, I think the lowly Pirates catch Army at exactly the most opportune time.

Not to win outright or anything, but it just sets up incredibly well for the Pirates to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large amount of points that they've been afforded in this one.

Army is 6-0 SU/ATS after last week's relatively simple 44-10 win at UAB, but with a bye week up next, not only do I think this is a natrual "letdown" spot after the unrealistic ATS start, but also a "look-ahead" position for the home side.

When you add those two factors together, you get "trap game." 

I think this is a classic "trap" for Army, which finally comes in overvalued this week.

With the majority of the betting public going one way, I'm going the other.

The play is ECU.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOY on Fresno State moneyline.

Fresno state is 3-3 and Nevada is 3-4. Fresno State though has won three straight in this series, and I look for that streak to continue here. Instead of worrying about laying the handful of points though, I'm recommending to just lay the price and take the visitors on the moneyline option.

The Bulldogs come in razor focused after back-to-back losses after a 25-17 loss to Washington State in Week 7. Frenso State actually outgained Washington State 338-295 in total yards, but costly turnovers turned out to be the difference. RB Elijah Gilliam ran for 120 yards and a TD, while QB Mikey Keene had 220 yards and the two INT's. Overall the Bulldogs average 28.8 PPG, while conceding 27.5.

Nevada is off a 42-37 home win over Oregon State. But after three straight ATS victories, I think the Wolf Pack are now the ones overvalued here. QB Brendon Lewis had 151 yards passing and a TD.

The Wolfpack averages 27.3 PPG, while allowing 27.1. 

Fresno State has played the much stiffer competition this season and is battle-tested. Off two straight losses, I say the Bulldogs catch the contented home side at the "correct time."

Lay the price, the play is FRESNO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOM on the OVER FSU/Duke.

Duke saw its five-game win streak to open the season come to an end in last week's 24-14 loss at Georgia Tech as a ten-point dog. 

The Blue Devils have exceeded expectations and are just a win away from becoming eligible. After last week's low-scoring loss though, and two in a row, I think this O/U line is now a bit TOO low.

FSU has been a disaster a 1-5 this season, most recently falling 29-13 at Clemson. The Tigers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last week's loss, but that's significant to note here, as looking back sees the Seminoles having seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

FSU had to go with Brock Glenn last weekend under center, and he was 23 of 41 with 228 yards, two TD's and one INT. Look for him to be better here though with that awkward contest out of the way.

That said, the Seminoles' 22-0 run in this series is clearly in Jeopardy, as the Blue Devils will look to rebound off their first loss and end this long streak of futility. Maalik Murphy had 205 yards passing and two TD's, but will also benefit this week playing against this suspect FSU defense.

I look for this total to fly OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT GOW on Georgia State.

I'm not calling for an outright win, but I do think that Georgia State will, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large amount of points that it's been afforded in this one.

The Panthers are 2-3 now after two straight losses. Last week they fell 21-14 at home to ODU as a three-point fav. The Panthers have lost B2B home games as favorites, but now I think they're undervalued here in Week 8. 

Marshall is 3-3 after a 24-23 loss at Georgia Southern.

I just think that Georgia State QB Christian Veilluex can keep his team competitive, so far he has 1,284 passing yards and a 9:5 TD:INT.

Marshall is conceding 27.3 PPG and QB Stone earle only has a 7:2 TD:INT.

I see this one being much closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is GEORGIA STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF MONTH on Air Force.

Outright win?! 

Clearly, anything is possible when you're talking about 1-4 teams, but in a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The Falcons have lost four straight, most recently a 34-7 loss to Navy. Air Force has struggled with consistency on both sides of the ball, but it catches a break here facing the equally as inconsistent Lobos.

The Falcons made a mid-game QB change, going to Quentin Hayes in the end, who finished five of six for 115 yards and a TD, while also rushing 11 times for 17 yards. Look for him to make a big diffence this week.

New Mexico just broke a three-game slide with a 50-40 win over New Mexico State in a contest where neither side played any defense.

And any momentum that the Lobos got is now lost after their untimely bye-week. They allow 43.8 PPG and everything points to this one coming right down to the wire in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is AIR FORCE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOY on the OVER Southern Miss/Louisiana Montroe.

Two teams from the West Division of the Sunbelt collide, with Southern Miss desperate for a win at 1-4 after last week's 23-13 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, and Louisiana-Monroe entering at 4-1 after last week's 21-19 win over James Madison as a 17-point dog.

Both teams have seen the total go UNDER in four of five this year, including two straight, but expect each to open things up offensively and for this total to easily eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

USM has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU losses in a row. So far the Golden Eagles have been poor on both ends of the field, averaging 15.8 PPG, while conceding 31.4. Four different men have seen time under center, with Tate Rodemaker seeing the most action with 580 yards passing, four TD's and four INT's. 

Bryant Vincent's new team looks good early on, averaging and conceding 19.8 PPG. Aidan Armenta is in line for a big performance here though vs. the poor defense of Southern Miss.

Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the visitors to keep it competitive down the stretch.

Either way, this number is too low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOW on Arizona.

Arizona is 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS, while BYU is 5-0 SU/ATS. With the majority of the betting public quick to back the home side, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Arizona enters off a Big 12 home game loss to Texas Tech, falling 28-22 and I think that Noah Fifita can build off his 301 yards passing in last week's loss. Overall Arizona is conceding just 350.8 total yards per game.

BYU was 2-7 in the Big 12 last year and comes in off a win at Baylor. QB Jake Retzlaff wasn't that great though, throwing for 218 yards, three TD's and two INT's. BYU's pass defense gave up 324 yards, which doesn't bode well facing Fifita.

BYU is off its bye, and I say that "rest" leads to "rust." 

Grab the points, the play is ARIZONA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOM on UNC.

Georgia Tech is 4-2 SU and UNC is 3-3 SU. The Yellow Jackets though are 3-2-1 ATS, while UNC is 0-5-1 ATS. 

I say that the Tar Heels finally get off the schneid for bettors and, at the very least, deliver the goods with the handful of points they've been afforded.

To say this is a "revenge" game would be an understatement as well as Georgia Tech has won three straight, both SU and ATS over the last three seasons in this series, including a 46-42 home shootout last year.

Georgia Tech comes in off a 24-14 home win over Duke, but with a game at Notre Dame up next, the visitors are going to get caught looking ahead here as well.

UNC is off three straight SU losses as well to fall to 3-3 overall. But with their bye week next week, the Tar Heels are the correct call here on Saturday afternoon.

Grab the points, the play is UNC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC GOM on Kent State.

A couple of the worst teams in the nation collide here on Saturday afternoon in Mac action and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the ample points.

Ball State is 1-4 SU and 0-2 in the MAC, while Kent State is 0-5 SU and 0-2 in the MAC.

Ball State is off a 45-42 loss to WMU, while Kent State ell 52-33 to EMU. 

Ball State has eight players listed out for this game. Kent has eight listed as questionable.

Overall Ball State is averaging 25 PPG, while conceding 48.2, while Kent is 14.8 and allowing 51.4. 

Kent State has played the better competition and put up 33 points last week vs. EMU. Look for the Flashes to continue to build momentum and grab as many points as you can.

The play is KENT.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW GOM on Utah State.

Two teams on other ends of the conference collide here on Friday night, and I say this spread is way too large.

UNLV is now 4-1 after last week's 44-41 OT loss at home to Syracuse as a six-point fav, and I think it's primed for another letdown here on the road. 

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but it's going to be a big enough of a mental issue to give Utah State the advantage with the massive amount of points that they've been given here.

Hajj-Malik Williams was decent last weekend under center with 227 yards, three TD's, and one INT, but the Rebels defense looked poor.

That leaves the door open for Spencer Petras, who had 372 yards, three TD's in the Aggies' 62-30 loss to Boise State last weekend.

If Petras doesn't happen to play, Utah State still has a competent replacement in Bryson Barnes, who has 524 yards, four TD's and four INT's.

Look for UTAH STATE to keep the foot on the gas in the second half and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA GOW on UTEP.

I'm of course not suggest whatsoever that UTEP is going to win this one outright, but I do absolutely believe that this spread is way too large, as I'm expecting WKU to take the foot of the gas as it gets ready to travel to 5-1 Sam Houston State the following weekend.

After three straight victories the Hilltoppers came up short two weeks ago in their 21-20 road loss at BC.

It's a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot in my estimation and when you add those two factors together, you get "trap game."

I think this is a trap game for sure for the home side. UTEP is terrible, 0-5, but it's actually played some really decent competition, including a Nebraska, at Liberty, at Colorado State and at home to Sam Houston State last weekend. They've scored a combined 38 points over their last two games which is decent considering their competition.

As primarily a "situational" capper, these are the types of games that I always have my eyes open for.

Grab the points, the play is UTEP.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOY on the UNDER New Mexico State/Jacksonville State.

New Mexico State is just 1-4 and off four straight losses. It'll be eager to reverse its fortunes here after its most recent 50-40 setback at New Mexico last week. The Aggies have been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones, and I believe this pattern continues here on Wednesday.

Interestingly, dating to last season, New Mexico State has also seen the total fly OVER the number in four of its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. RB Seth McGowan, who has 334 rushing yards and two rushing TD's, will be leaned upon heavily here. 

These defenses are underrated here and this O/U line is a little too high.

The play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOY on the OVER Hawaii/SDSU.

Hawaii is 2-2 and SDSU is 1-3.

The Aztecs have seen the total go 1-3 to the UNDER, while Hawaii has seen the total go 0-4 to the UNDER.

Despite these teams having played mostly low-scoring defensive battles so far this season, I firmly believe now that there's an overreaction on the total here in Week 6 and that these two teams are finally poised for more of an offensive "shootout." 

Hawaii is off am impressive 36-7 win over Northern Iowa, scoring in every quarter. I believe the Rainbow Warriors and QB Brayden Schager, who had 374 yards passing and four TD's, will carry that offensive momentum over here.

SDSU is off the 22-21 road loss at Central Michigan and has now lost three straight. But dating to last year the Aztecs have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after three or more SU losses in a row.

With Hawaii pushing the pace offensively from start to finish like I suspect, and the Aztecs forced to keep paced, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Kansas.

Kansas is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. That fact is why the majority of the public money is on the 3-1 home side in this one.

But I'm not convinced though, as I feel the value has now in fact swung the other way.

Kansas is coming off a 38-27 loss against TCU. Jalon Daniel was decent with 180 yards passing and one TD, while Daniel Hishaw Jr. had 85 yards rushing and one TD.

ASU enters off a 30-22 loss to Texas Tech and I think is now overvalued here. Sam Leavitt had 282 passing yards, but no TDs and one INT. 

With 4-1 Utah coming to town next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the home side after its first loss of the season, but also a "look ahead" position as well.

Add those two factors together and you get "trap game."

A great situational play here, so grab the points on KANSAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER UCF/Florida.

UCF is 3-1 and Florida is 2-2.

The Golden Knights have seen the total go OVER in all four of their games, while the Gators have seen the total go OVER in three of four.

Bettors are quick to back another high-scoring affair here with the majority of the early money on the "over," so this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

UCF though is off its first loss of the year, a humbling 48-21 setback to Colorado at home as an 11.5-point favorite. And that fact is significant for us to take note of here, as the Golden Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite dating to last season.

The Gators are off the 45-28 win over Mississippi State, but I expect their QB Graham Hertz to have a more difficult time moving the ball today vs. this determined Knights side. 

I expect a few turnovers and for field position to play a big part in the outcome of this contest and because of that, I'm expecting the total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOW on UNC.

Pittsburgh if 4-0 SU/ATS and the general betting public is quick to back the Panthers here this week. But with the majority going one way, we'll go the other.

UNC enters 3-2 and takes on a Pittsburgh team that's off a satisfying 73-17 win over Youngstown State. QB Eli Holstein had a big day, but he'll have a much more difficult time here on the road vs. the Tar Heels in my estimation.

UNC won't be taking anything for granted here after a rough loss last week, falling 21-20 to Duke after having a 17-0 halftime lead.

North Carolina is 0-4-1 ATS though and note that the Tar Heels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. Last week QB Jacolby Criswell had 250 yards passing and two TDs.

I like UNC to rebound here and think that it's now Pittsburgh that's getting way too much respect here on the road.

Grab the points, the play is UNC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER UCLA/Penn State.

UCLA is 1-3 and Penn State is 4-0. The Bruins have seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year. But note that dating to last season the Bruins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row.

The Nittany Lions have seen the total go UNDER in three of four as well, including in two straight. 

The Bruins lost 34-13 to Oregon last weekend, with QB Ethan Garbers having a pretty garbage game, throwing 118 yards and two INTs. 

Kaytron Allen was a standout with 102 yards rushing and a TD in the Nittany Lions 21-7 win over the Illini last week.

If the Nittany Lions are going to cover this massive spread, they're going to have run up this score. Look for UCLA to get some garbage points down the stretch and for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOY on Syracuse.

UNLV has started the season 4-0 ATS. After this contest, they travel to play Utah State in Mountain West action. I think they're going to get caught looking ahead here, and overall I just feel that the Rebels are overvalued, both by bettors and the oddsmakers.

Syracuse is 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS. It was unable to cover the 30.5-point spread in its 42-14 win over Holy Cross last weekend. But with two straight difficult conference road contests up after this vs. NC State and Pitt, this week's contest takes on added importance.

Syracuse is ranked third in the nation in passing yards with 372.5 per contest. I believe the Orange have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in this one. That said, I'm grabbing the points in the end.

The play is SYRACUSE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF USA GOM on UTEP.

Sam Houston State is 4-1 after a 40-39 win over Texas State last weekend. I think the Bearcats will be out of gas here though, as note that they were down 22-0 after the first quarter.

UTEP is a terrible team at 0-4 SU. The one game it was a favorite vs. Southern Utah (-6.5), it lost 27-24 in OT. Besides that though, it's played three pretty good teams on the road Nebraska in Week 1, a Liberty and Colorado State last week, falling 27-17 as a nine-point dog.

As primarily a "situational" capper though, these are the types of games that I always keep my eyes open for, as this one sets up well for the home side to earn a comfortable cover. As not only is this a prime "letdown" spot after the 4-0 start, but with its bye-week next week, it's also a "look-ahead" position for Sam Houston State.

When you add those two factors together you get "trap game."

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is UTEP.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF DOG OF THE MONTH on MTSU.

MTSU is just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. The Blue Raiders though have responded well in this spot historically for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight-up losses in a row.

Let's take the Blue Raider's early numbers with a "grain of salt," as they have in fact faced some stiff competition over the last three weeks, including at Mississippi, vs. WKU and Duke. 

Memphis is now 3-1 after last week's 56-44 loss at Navy as a huge 9-point favorite.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Especially with a bye week next week!

Seth Henigan was just 32 of 56 for the Tigers last weekend, while Nicholas Vattiato was 21 of 33 for the Blue Raiders in their 45-17 loss to Duke. 

I say this is just a few too many points for the home side to cover.

So grab the points, the play is MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER Mississippi State/Texas.

These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating much more of a defensive battle this weekend. 

Mississippi State is 1-3 after last week's 45-28 home loss to Florida. the Bulldogs have lost three straight SU/ATS, which is significant to note, as Mississippi State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after three or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

Texas is 4-0 SU/ATS and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-3 win over ULM. Note though that dating back to last season the Longhorns have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bulldogs are giving up 31 PPG, but I just don't see the Longhorns running up the score in this one, especially with a neutral-site game vs. the Sooners after this.

Texas needs to win this game, but it just as importantly needs to do so without sustaining any major injuries.

The Bulldogs have no hope here, and I don't expect their offense to do much.

A great overall "situational" play, as everything adds up to this one being a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC GOM on Kent State.

Kent State is 0-4 SU/ATS, while EMU is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.

Kent is off humbling back-to-back shutout losses. It lost 71-0 at Tennessee, before then falling 56-0 at Penn State last week.

I'll just caution in reading too much into EMU's win/loss record at this point. It lost 30-9 at Washington in Week 2 and managed to cover with the 24.5 points, but its three victories have come against extremely sub-par competition, including in last week's lop-sided 36-0 win over St. Francis. 

Kent State will be risking life and limb to get to EMU QB Jeremiah Salem and I believe that JD Sherrod will bounce back at home here and keep his team competitive.

Grab the points, the play is KENT STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Maryland/Indiana.

Maryland is 4-1 and Indiana is 4-0. This is a big Big Ten matchup and in my opinion, despite each having played to several higher-scoring games to open the year, this one will turn out to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Maryland is averaging 34.8 PPG, while conceding just 16.8. Billy Edwards has been solid to open the season, and the Terps only loss came in a 27-24 setback to Michigan State.  

Indiana is averaging 50.5 PPG, while allowing only 9.25. Kurtis Rourke has the Hoosiers perfect so far through the first four weeks, but neither teams has truly been tested to this point.

These defenses have been great and I think it's the offenses that take a minor step back here in Week 5.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on North Carolina State.

Northern Illinois is now 2-1 after a 23-20 OT home loss to Buffalo as a 13-point favorite. Previous to that it somehow managed to win 16-14 at Notre Dame as a 28-point dog.

So how good or bad are the Huskies for real? I say they're primed for a letdown again after last week's poor showing. And with a home game vs. lowly 1-3 UMass next weekend, this not only sets up as a letdown spot but also a "look-ahead" position.

NC State is 2-2, but 0-4 ATS. I think that the Wolfpack are now undervalued this weekend finally after four straight ATS losses.

After last week's 59-35 loss at Clemson, and with Wake Forest up next, this becomes an important non-conference matchup for the Wolf Pack.

Northern Illinois QB Ethan Hampton has been solid, but I still think that CJ Bailey is the correct call here at home and in this position.

Look for NC State's size in the trenches to wear down the Huskies as I look for the home side to indeed cruise to a comfortable win and cover at home.

The play is NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC GOY on Virginia Tech.

I think Miami will go up big, then take the foot off the gas and allow Virginia Tech to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Miami is 4-0 and has been a fav in every contest so far. It beat Florida 41-17 as a two-point fav on the road in Week 1. It's then gone on to destroy three straight weaker opponents, including a 50-15 beatdown at USF last week as a 16.5-point fav.

But with a game at 3-1 Cal up next, this now not only potentially sets up as a letdown spot, but also a potential "look-ahead' spot. When you add those two factors together, you get "trap game." 

Virginia Tech is 2-2 after last week's 26-23 upset home loss to Rutgers as a three-point fav.

The Hokies have responded well in this spot since last season, going 3-1 ATS in their last four after a SU/ATS loss as a favorite.

I just think that Cameron Ward and the Hurricanes have yet to be really tested. I don't think the Hokies can put up much of a fight, but I do think that Kyron Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten can keep this Miami defense honest this weekend. 

Miami has run up the score against everyone and only failed to cover against FAMU. But now I say the conditions are right for a bit of a mental letdown.

No outright or anything, but look for VT to secure the comfortable cover as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP 

This is a 10* ACC TOY on the OVER Cal/FSU.

FSU is 0-3 SU/ATS after a disastrous start. It's been favored in every contest and stumbled badly each time. All three games have gone UNDER the number. This is by far the lowest posted total so far for the Seminoles though this season, and in my estimation, it's much TOO low now.

Cal on the other hand is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. It's scored a total of 83 points over its first three games, and I don't see this offense slowing down vs. this struggling FSU defense, which has conceded 72 points thus far.

Cal is playing its first ACC game with Fernando Mendoza running the show and I expect him to keep the pressure on the home side.

DJ Uiagalelei has struggled so far to open the season, but here's a golden opportunity to start to turn things around.

The Bears have yet to really be challenged defensively this year, and I expect the Seminoles to be risking life and limb here to try and stop the bleeding.

I say this one will fly well OVER the number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Michigan.

I really think that the Wolverines could pull off the outright upset here. That said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Will "rest" lead to "ruest" for Miller Moss and the Trojans? Maybe. They upset LSU 27-20, and then hammered Utah State 48-0 on September 7th, and then they had their bye. Now they get ready to play their first-ever Big 10 matchup, against the defending champs. 

USC has looked sharp defensively in the early going, but it really hasn't been tested yet.

The Wolverines have made a shift at QB, going Alex Orji, who came on in the fourth-quarter of last week's 28-18 win over Arkansas State, throwing for 12 years and a TD and rushing for 27 yards on three attempts. A true "dual threat," I think he's an improvement over the highly-ineffective Davis Warren.

I think Michigan big front four will step up here and the run game will propel the home side to, at the very least, a solid ATS cover.

So grab the points, the play is indeed on the WOLVERINES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOM on the OVER Buffalo/NIU.

Buffalo is 2-1. In its two games as a favorite, it's gone on to score a combined 64 points. 

The Bulls are dogs on the road here in this conference matchup though against the stingy Huskies, who are 2-0 SU/ATS after last week's surprising 16-14 win at Notre Dame as a 28-point dog. Previous to that NIU beat WIU by a score of 54-15.

Buffalo is averaging 21.3 PPG, with QB CJ Ogbonna having thrown for 435 yards while owning a decent 3:1 TD:INT.

The defense has been OK for the Bulls, but NIU is averaging 35 PPG.

QB Ethan Hampton has 526 yards passing and a superb 6:0 TD:INT.

Look for these two competent QB's to duel it out in what I anticipate will be a much higher-scoring outcome than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER JMU/UNC.

James Madison is 2-0 after holding on for a 13-6 win over Gardner Webb as a 36.5-point favorite. Previous to that it beat Charlotte 30-7 as a 6.5-point fav. Both games have fallen UNDER the number, but I expect this game at UNC to have a much faster pace and overall final score than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The Tar Heels are 3-0 and have posted 83 points over their last two games. They've yet to cover a spread and two of the three contests have fallen UNDER the number

The Dukes though will be forced to open gthings up behind Alonza Barnett III, who has 354 yards passing and a 2:1 TD:INT so far.

UNC is off a rocking chair win over NC Central. The Tar Heels ar eranked 11th in the nation so far in rushing with 248 YPG on the ground. UNC is ranked 46th in the FBS with 34 PPG average.

The Tar Heels continue to try and figure out who will be their No. 1 QB after Max Johnson went down in the first game with a leg injury, as both Conner Harrell and Jacolby Criswell will see time.

JMU will score in garbage time and push this total well OVER the number before it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the OVER Houston/Cincinnati. 

Houston has been involved in three lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally expecting the Cougars to put some points on the board. They lost 27-7 to UNLV in Week 1, then 16-12 at Oklahoma as 27.5-point dogs, then they followed that up with a 33-7 win at home over Rice.

It's significant to note obviously that the Cougars have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row (dating to last year.) 

They lost this game 24-14 at home last year to the Bearacts, who enter 2-1 after a 38-20 win over Twowson, a 28-7 loss to Pitts and a 27-16 win at Miami Ohios. Cincinnati has had no issues putting points on the board this season, and I don't expect that to be an issue here at home either. With tough upcoming games at Texas Tech and UCF, this is a matchup that the Bearcats can't overlook. 

The Bearcats are allowing 438.7 YPG in the early going, which is good news for Houston QB Donovan Smith, who will look to build off his first victory.

I expect a lot more offense than the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Illinois/Nebraska.

Both teams enter 3-0, and each has seen the total go UNDER the number in all three of its games so far.

Clearly, something has to give on Friday night!

Nebraska is a heavy favorite and I'm a little unsure if the Huskers can cover the number. What I do expect though is for the undefeated home side to push the pace here and that this faster tempo will ultimately help in driving this total OVER the number before it's all said and done.

Both teams face much bigger challenges after this, making this a crucial game for each side. 

The entire World seems to be on the UNDER here, but I think these teams are going to fly way over this total. The Huskers have been playing incredibly weak competition, but they've still posted 102 combined points over their first three games.

The Illini have combined for 98 over their first three games!

Illinois lost this game 20-7 last year, but with each offense now firing on all cylinders heading into this Friday night contest, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP