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This is a 1% BK on Florida State.

FSU has played a game and beat New Mexico State, so the pressure is on SMU to perform here.

It's a prime-time kick-off on the road with a hostile crowd, and a conference contest to boot. 

That puts the pressure on Lashlee to be precise with his play-calling right out of the gate and then for QB Jennings to get the job done.

FSU has a difficult schedule, but it catches a break here facing SMU right out of the gate, before its offense has been tested.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, let's grab the points; the play is on FLORIDA STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on Louisville.

I think the 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals can keep it competitive late facing off against the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels.

Pete Golding is ready to lead Ole Miss for the entire season after taking over when Lane Kiffin left for LSU.

Ole Miss returns QB Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy, and they helped post a 13-2 record last year. The biggest turnover for the team has been with the coaching staff.

Louisville returns star running back Isaac Brown.

One area Ole Miss struggled in last year was defending the run. The Cardinals will be pretty good in that department once again this season.

They have QB Lincoln Kienholz under center, and he played in 12 games over three seasons for Ohio State; he's mobile and has the ability to throw on the run.

Ole Miss has tried to keep its schemes similar while completely changing the coaching staff, so I believe LOUISVILLE has a window of opportunity to take advantage of here.

No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ATS BLOOD-BATH on Cal.

There is a lot of hype surrounding Bob Chesney, and while I'm sure he'll improve UCLA's record from last year, he still has plenty of new faces and systems to deal with, especially in this first road game of the year.

Cal has a new coach as well, and I like quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at home.

This is a big game for both sides, but I say that the home field advantage can't be ignored.

UCLA had a 1-5 away record last year, while Cal had a 4-2 home record.

I think the outright win is the most likely outcome for CAL, but my official call for this pick is to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% ATS WINNER on San Jose State.

San Jose State lost 42-26 to USC in Week 0, while EMU won a conference opener at home versus newly-promoted Sacramento State 28-17.

I like San Jose's QB Luke Weaver, and I believe he'll keep his team competitive throughout.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome for SJSU, let's grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WINNER on Georgia Tech.

Colorado has a much bigger turnover with its roster to deal with to open the season.

Last year GT ran for 320 yards on the Buffs, but the game was only close because the Yellow Jackets were -3 in turnover margin.

Both teams stumbled down the stretch last season, but I think Alberto Mendoza is in a good spot here to pick up right where Haynes King left off. 

Colorado lost its final five games last year, allowing an average of 40 points over that stretch.

I'm banking on GEORGIA TECH pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover, as Deion Sanders' team head home for a much more favorable matchup against Weber State (the Jackets on the other hand have a super difficult game against Tennessee after this, so they can't look past this opening opportunity for a solid performance).

Lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOTAL LOGIC PLAY on the UNDER Memphis/UNLV.

Big turnover for each side to deal with. New systems in place, as well.

These teams had two of the best rushing attacks in the country last year. Jai-Den Thomas is back for UNLV as well.

Memphis has also brought back QB Brendon Lewis, who rushed for 665 yards.

The Tigers were far better defending the run last year, in fact they were ranked 18th in the country in opponent EPA per rush.

UNLV struggled in that department, but made moves in the offseason to try and rectify that issue.

I look for an inefficient offensive game to lead to a lower-scoring final combined outcome; the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% TOP TOTAL on the UNDER NC State/UVA.

UVA went to the ACC Championship game last year, but then lost to Duke in OT.

They lost to NC State by a score of 35-31 in Week 1, despite leading 24-14 at half.

The Wolfpack return CJ Bailey under center; they also bring back RB Jayden Scott, who averaged 5.6 YPC last year. The defense was a weak point for the Wolfpack, but that unit catches a break in Week 0 facing the Cavalier's new QB Beau Pribula.

Pribula threw just three touchdown passes and seven interceptions in six SEC games last year. He's a mobile QB, though, who isn't afraid to get out of the pocket and who benefits playing behind a decent offensive line.

UVA ranked second in scoring defense and third in total defense in 2025 and the bring back a handful of starters from that unit.

Expect a competitive battle to be a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done in what I believe ultimately sets up as a great situational play.

Good luck, NP

This is a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP TOTALS PLAY on the under Miami/Indiana.

Two of the best defenses in the nation collide and I expect these units to control the tempo of this contest.

Miami ranks fifth in the country in controlling the clock, so it'll be able to limit the time that Mendoza is on the field of play.

This number is high in my opinion, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP SIDE PLAY on Miami.

It's safe to say that this is the most unexpected national title game in history. Or, you can for sure make that argument anyway.

Either way, 13-2 Miami is a big underdog against 15-0 Indiana, and for a number of different reasons, I believe the Gators have a legitimate shot at pulling off the outright upset. 

Miami has looked fantastic in the Playoffs by going 3-0 SU and ATS, beating Texas A*M in the First Round by a score of 10-3 as a 2.5-point dog, then beating Ohio State 24-14 as a 7.5-point dog, before then getting the better of Ole Miss in the Semi's by a score of 31-27 as 3.5-point favorites.

On the season, the Hurricanes average 31.6 PPG, which ranks 34th, while allowing only 13.1, which ranks fourth.

Indiana has also looked spectacular in its two Playoff wins, beating Alabama 38-3, before then smashing Oregon 56-22 in the other Semifinal as a 3.5-point favorite.

On the season, the Hoosiers average 42.6 points per game, which is ranked third, while conceding just 11.1, which is ranked second.

Miami coach Mario Cristobal was a member of the Hurricanes' 1989 and 1991 national championship teams, and he finally has his team firing on all cylinders.

The Hurricanes have been especially stingy on the defensive end  behind new coordinator Corey Hetherman.

After upset losses to Louisville and Miami in October, Carson Beck and the Canes rallied to win four straight by an average margin of 31-10. 

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti has his team and program in completely unchartered territory. 

Before this season, Indiana had won three bowl games in its history, but this season it's already won two. If the Hoosiers do win this game outright on Monday night, they'll be the first 16-0 College Football team since Yale back in 1894. 

Cignetti brought in dynamic playmaking quarterback Fernando Mendoza, and he has plenty of weapons surrounding him.

One area of concern for Mendoza, though, especially now facing this aggressive Hurricanes defense, is that he's taken seven sacks over his last three games.

Note that the Hurricanes are, in fact, fifth in pressure rate (41.7%) and tenth in sack rate (8.1%).

Furthermore, Miami's defensive front has combined for 32 tackles for a loss, 19 run stops, 19 sacks from 123 pressures, five forced fumbles, and an interception and two breakups. 

Miami has only topped 40 points twice in its past 12 games, and the Hurricanes have averaged just 19.3 points per game with their offense in the College Football Playoff, but their average time of possession is fifth in the country, and this incredible defensive unit has, in fact, barely seen a lot of time on the field over that stretch.

While Beck's numbers pale in comparison to his counterpart, he's done his job extremely well, and he won't be asked to do anything that he hasn't done all season.

And I believe that, combined with the Hurricanes' aggressive defensive play, will keep them competitive.

It's obviously extremely difficult to point out anything negative about the Hoosiers, and I really respect what they've done to this point.

But I think the Hoosiers will finally have their hands full, and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I'm grabbing the points with MIAMI in the 2025/26 National Championship Game.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOWL ULTIMATE PLAY on Wake Forest.

Wake Forest finished 8-4, while Mississippi State was just 5-7. 

The Demon Deacons had their three-game win streak snapped in their finale at Duke on November 29th, falling 49-32, while the Bulldogs are clearly lucky to even be here with a 5-7 record, as it would end the year with three straight losses, including a 38-19 setback at home to Mississippi in their regular-season finale.

Wake Forest finished averaging 26.8 points per game, while allowing 21.5, while Mississippi State averaged 30.5 PPG, while conceding 29.2.

Mississippi State finished just 1-7 in the SEC, though. 

There was an interesting stat I saw about this game, and that's that there have been just six bowl teams that finished the regular season at 5-8, and Mississippi State could become the seventh.

Mississippi State did not have many opt-outs or transfers, but the Bulldogs will be without quarterback Blake Shapen, who is getting ready for the NFL draft.

Shapen finished with 2,433 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and eight picks this year, while also rushing three other scores. 

So, that means that Kamario Taylor will be under center for Mississippi State, and he has 388 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception this season.

Mississippi State wasn't great defensively, allowing 405.8 yards per game, and I think that Taylor is going to have his hands full here with an above-average Demon Deacons defense.

Wake Forest ranks ninth in the country in yards per play allowed at 4.9, led by first-team All-ACC safety Nick Andersen, who has 94 tackles to rank third in the conference.

The Demon Deacons will be missing several key pieces who are opting out for this game. 

That includes their star running back and ALL-ACC Demdond Caliborne, who is also focusing on the NFL draft. 

That will put added focus on starting quarterback Robby Ashford, who has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes for 2,169 yards, nine touchdowns, and seven interceptions. 

Ashford is a dual-threat QB, though, who also has 504 rushing yards with seven touchdowns. 

Taylor is a dual-threat as well, but the Demon Deacons rank 34th in the country in allowing 122.3 yards per game on the ground, and they're 24th in yards per carry average allowed as well.

Mississippi State has allowed 35 or more points in five straight games, and Wake Forest has covered in seven of its last nine.

I really like Wake Forest to win outright and will suggest sprinkling a tiny bit on the moneyline, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the DEMON DEACONS in the 2026 Dukes' Mayo Bowl.

Good luck, NP

This is an SEC TOY on the UNDER Ole Miss/Georgia.

We have an interesting matchup between conference rivals in the College Football Championship Quarterfinal between Ole Miss and Georgia on Thursday night. In my opinion, everything points to a much lower-scoring defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Both teams come in with identical 12-1 records.

These teams played earlier in the season, and Georgia won at home in a barn-burner by a score of 43-35.

Many believe we'll see an identical high-scoring and wide-open affair here in the Sugar Bowl, but I think there are enough situational reasons that point to this being a much tighter and more defensive battle in the rematch.

Ole Miss will, of course, be without head coach Lane Kiffin and instead have Pete Golding behind the bench. 

They will have their dynamic quarterback under center in Trinidad Chambliss, who had three total touchdowns in the first matchup and is a true dual-threat pivot.

There's been a lot of external doubt, though, about whether Chambliss has the ability to get the job done on the big stage.

Georgia is coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and I expect the Bulldogs to carry over that defensive momentum into this one.

The Bulldogs' Gunner Stockton completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 31 touchdowns this year, but he's also viewed as a possible weak link in these bigger type moments. 

Kirby Smart had this to say about his quarterback: 

“He’s gotten better. I mean, he’s the leader of our team. He’s the guy, the catalyst that makes us go with his legs and his arm, and the players play hard for him,” Smart said of Stockton this week. “I’m proud of his growth this season. He’s played some really good teams. He’ll play another good team in two days, and I have so much appreciation for what he’s done for our overall team with his leadership, his mindset, and his approach.”

To alleviate the pressure from each of their quarterbacks, it's safe to say that each side will be looking to establish the ground game throughout this bowl game.

Ole Miss got good news about running back Kewan Lacy, who went out in the first round win over Tulane, but has told reporters this week that he's been cleared and is good to go. Lacy finished ninth in the country in yards per game on the ground, and he had 21 rushing touchdowns.

Georgia gets the job done on the ground by committee. Stockton contributes a lot to the ground game with plenty of plays drawn up on every drive for him to scramble. And he has two other strong backs in Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens.

Defensively, each team shines as well, with Georgia posting the fourth-best rush defense in the FBS with 79 yards allowed per game, while Ole Miss conceded 148 per contest.

These are two very defensive-minded coaches as well, with their overall philosophies.

Each team tightened up down the stretch as well, as over their last nine combined games, the UNDER is 8-1. 

In fact, these defenses combine to concede just 35.2 points per game this year.

The team that looks after the ball the best and wins the field position and time of possession battle is going to come out on top this time.

Yes, the first game flew well past the posted number, but for all of the situational and trend-based reasons I just listed, everything points to the UNDER as being the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a COTTON BOWL TOTAL ROUT on the UNDER Miami/Ohio State.

This is obviously a really low number, but it's not nearly low enough in my estimation.

In what I believe will be a defensive battle for the ages, I'm going to be taking the UNDER in the Cotton Bowl between Miami and Ohio State, with the winner moving on to the Semifinal of the Bowl Championship.

Miami enters 11-2 overall, while Ohio State is 12-1.

The Hurricanes lost 24-21 at home to Louisville as 10.5-point favorites in Week 8, and then 26-20 in overtime at SMU as ten-point favorites in Week 10.

Ohio State's only loss came three weeks ago in the Big Ten Championship Game, falling 13-10 to Indiana as a three-point favorite.

The Buckeyes average 34.9 points per game, which ranks 16th, while allowing only 8.2, which ranks No. 1 in the FBS.

Miami averages 32.2 points per game, which ranks 29th, while allowing 13, which ranks fourth.

The Hurricanes had to beat Texas A&M by a score of 10-3 as three-point underdogs to advance, while Ohio State received a bye in the first round of the Playoff.

The winner of this one will advance to face the winner of the matchup between Ole Miss and Georgia.

The Hurricanes held Texas A&M to just 4.3 yards per play, and A&M came averaging 33.8 points per game at the time, which was ranked 21st in the country.

Ohio State has been able to play whatever style its competition has thrown at it this year, but in the two games where the Buckeyes faced really good, elite defenses, they won 14-7 against Texas, and then lost in the Championship game to Indiana in another all-out defensive battle.

Buckeyes' quarterback Julian Sayin was 21 of 29 for 258 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the loss to the Hoosiers.

And I expect Sayin to have his hands full again as well here on Wednesday, as the Canes have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, led by edge rusher Rueben Bains Jr., they are ranked seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate. 

Carson Beck has been great over his last five games for Miami, throwing for 1,228 yards with 12 touchdowns and only one interception 

But Beck has yet to face a defense as aggressive and opportunistic as the Buckeyes this season. 

To get to this point, you have to be extremely talented on both sides of the ball, and each of these teams does rank among the best of the best on both the offensive and defensive ends.

But these are absolutely two of the best defensive teams in the nation, and the old adage that defense wins championships could not be more apt in my opinion.

The team that protects the ball and wins the field position and time of possession battle is going to come out on top of this one, and in a contest like that, expect to see a ton of time being killed off the clock.

I say the conditions are correct for another low-scoring UNDER in the Cotton Bowl.

Good luck, NP

This is an ALAMO BOWL TOP WINNER on TCU.

USC finished 9-3, and it's the big favorite in this matchup as the school from the difficult Big Ten Conference, while TCU and Sonny Dykes finished 8-4, in what can be considered a forgettable campaign for the Horned Frogs' head coach. 

On the surface, the 6.5-point spread looks about right in this matchup, but when we dig a little deeper, we find a lot of different things that point to TCU having a legitimate shot at actually winning the Alamo Bowl outright.

The Trojans finished averaging 36.5 points per game, while allowing 22.4, while the Horned Frogs averaged 30.8 PPG and allowed 25.2. 

The Horned Frogs will look to pull off an outright upset here and have something positive to build off heading into next season, and I think they'll be able to do that, facing a USC team with several key pieces missing.

The Trojans have their starting quarterback in Jayden Maiava for this Bowl game, but he'll be without his top three receivers in Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, and Lake McRee.

Their production will be impossible to replace, as Lemon and Lane will be moving on to the NFL for sure, and they combined with McRee for 158 receptions this season for 2,351 yards and 19 touchdowns. 

And so Maiava's top receiving threat now is a true freshman with 28 career receptions.

And his offensive line will be missing two starters from injury, while a third is listed as questionable and is doubtful. 

And as bad as the offense has been gutted, the defensive side of the ball is even worse, with four of the five highest-ranked players on that side of the field having all opted out. 

So Dykes has a big opportunity here to salvage an inconsistent season and build momentum.

The Horned Frogs come in at 100% capacity, except for starting quarterback Josh Hoover.

Typically, that wouldn't be a great thing, but TCU has an extremely capable backup quarterback in Ken Seals, who has started 22 games in the SEC, throwing for 4,418 yards and 29 touchdowns.

Seals will be able to take advantage of a depleted Trojan secondary, as note that the Horned Frogs rank 26th in the nation in tempo. I'd be leaning towards the OVER as far as the total is concerned, as I see this being a highly competitive game.

USC will undoubtedly start to figure things out as the game goes on, but one really strong and relevant trend to take note of finds the Trojans just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite of more than a field goal.

With 99% of their team ready to go in this game, I say the HORNED FROGS are indeed the correct call. Consider also sprinkling a little on the moneyline, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with TCU.

Good luck, NP

This is a NEW MEXICO BOWL ROUT on North Texas.

North Texas lost its head coach in Eric Morris, but special teams coordinator Drew Svoboda will fill in as interim here. The good news for UNT is that QB Drew Mestemaker will play in this game.

Mestemaker led the country in passing with 4,129 yards and 31 TDs. 

SDSU QB Jayden Denegal, though, won't be playing in this one after having surgery on his shoulder, meaning Bret Emanuel Jr. will get the start. 

The Aztecs stumbled down the stretch offensively as well, averaging just 18.7 PPG over their final six games.

I like Mestemaker and NORTH TEXAS in this spot to solve the Aztecs' tough defense. 

Good luck, NP

This is a RATE BOWL BLOWOUT on New Mexico.

I like the Lobos in the Rate Bowl. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, so New Mexico is not very far from Arizona, and should enjoy a home-field advantage of sorts with the crowd behind them

That said, the Minnesota fans travel well, and Gophers' coach PJ Fleck is 6-0 straight up in Bowl games since taking over the program. 

Jason Eck's team, though, has done decently against two Big Ten teams this year, and I don't see this being a cake-walk for the Gophers whatsoever.

In fact, I think the wrong team is favored in this one.

The tale of the tape, as far as their records and numbers are concerned, finds Minnesota finished 7-5 overall, including 5-4 in Big Ten play, while New Mexico finished 9-3 overall, including 6-2 in Mountain West Conference play.

Minnesota only averages 23.3 points per game, while allowing 23.4, while New Mexico averages 27.9 points per game, while conceding 22.5.

As mentioned, the Aggies faced two Big Ten teams this year, falling 34-17 at Michigan as a 34.5-point underdog in Week 1, but then pulling off the outright upset victory over UCLA in Week 3 by a score of 35-10 as 16-point underdogs. 

The Lobos have already shown that they can compete with Big Ten teams this year, and with extra time off to prepare, I expect them to lean on their strengths and pull off the slight upset.

Note that New Mexico has better overall advanced stats as well, as the Gophers ranked 65th in the nation in EPA per play and 54th in EPA per play allowed. 

Conversely, Minnesota is 75th in EPS per play and 67th in EPA per play allowed.

When we dive a little deeper into the numbers, we find a few more lop-sided discrepancies as well, as Minnesota's offense is just 89th in the FBS in Rush EPA per play, and New Mexico's defense is 39th in the Nation in Rush EPA per play allowed. 

The Gophers have had a few significant pieces opt out on both sides of the line as well. 

Minnesota quarterback is decent, but he'll be without one of his key pieces in wideout Le'Meke Brockington. 

The front seven will be missing some players as well for Minnesota, which will help the Lobos establish their run game. 

But also note that New Mexico is 45th in the country in Dropback EPA per play, and the Gophers are just 68th in Dropback EPA per play allowed. 

Additionally note, the Lobos are both 3-1 straight-up and against the spread under coach Eck in games with a line set between +3 and -3.

But I think one of the strongest stats I came across that directly pertains to this pick as well is that Minnesota is only 14-18 ATS in its last 32 vs. defenses that concede 120 or fewer rushing yards per contest under the direction of Fleck.

I think Fleck's perfect Bowl run comes to an end here. Not that the Gophers won't take this game seriously, but they're in bad shape here overall with several injuries, opt-outs, and transfers.

Jack Layne and the Lobos come in hot, having won their last six games, and I think they'll make it seven in a row.

That said, my official call will be to grab as many point/s as you can with NEW MEXICO.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOWL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Cal/Hawaii.

Cal finished 7-5, a result which would wind up costing head coach Justin Wilcox his job. 

The Bears, though, have a great quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and he's from Ewa Beach, Hawaii, so this will be a homecoming of sorts. 

JKS finished with 3,117 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. 

Like his team, JKS had his ups and downs this season, but there's no doubt that he showed flashes of brilliance more than a few times. 

In the regular-season finale against SMU, he had 330 passing yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Cal posted 452 total yards in the win over SMU, but it allowed 477. 

JKS was dominant over the final three games, passing for nearly 925 yards with no picks.

Hawaii's strength this season was on the defensive side, and it did well against the pass. That said, it didn't face too many good passing teams in the Mountain West, and when it did, it got destroyed 38-10 by UNLV.

So, Timmy Chang will be wary of that after he helped guide his team to an 8-4 record, earning his first bowl berth as head coach of the Warriors.

JKS is, without question, the most dynamic player on the field of play, but the Warriors won't be rolling over with an experienced quarterback of their own in Micah Alejado, who threw for 2,832 passing yards, 21 touchdowns to only nine interceptions over his ten games played this year. 

In fact, the Warriors would go on to post 31 or more points in six of their last eight games. 

It's a big game for each team, and it's one that I see being dominated by these dynamic quarterbacks.

Because of that, I anticipate plenty of points hitting the board, so I'm on the OVER

Good luck, NP

This is a FRISCO BOWL ROUT on Ohio.

There are a lot of interesting story lines surrounding this game, and almost all of them are off-field stories. And it mostly revolves around the Bobcats' former head coach, Brian Smith, was fired due to misconduct.

The details are pretty sordid, including alcohol consumed in his office and getting together with a student.

So, Smith is gone and defensive coordinator John Hauser will be the interim coach for now.

UNLV 38-21 to Boise State in the Conference Championship game, another team that likes to run the ball and which is above-average defensively.

The Rebels, behind quarterback Anthony Colandrea, average 35.9 points per game, which ranks 15th in the nation. They throw for 256 yards per contest, while rushing for 203.1.

Colandrea has posted 3,275 passing yards, along with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He's also posted 621 rushing yards and nine other touchdowns on the ground. 

UNLV struggled on the defensive end this year, though, conceding 28.8 points per game, which broke down to a respectable 237.2 passing yards per game, but a concerning 176.5 rushing yards per contest. 

The Bobcats finished tied for second in the MAC, and they closed out the season with back-to-back wins, posting 73 points in the process.

Ohio averages 28.7 points per game, which breaks down to 187.6 yards per game through the air and 229.1 yards per game on the ground.

The Bobcats are led by quarterback Parker Navarro, who has 2,232 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and ten interceptions.

Navarro is also a dual-threat back, as he finished with 843 rushing yards and eight other touchdowns on the ground. 

Ohio has been exceptional defensively, and with the defensive coach switching to head coach, that unit will have even more focus put on it here, I believe.

The Bobcats enter allowing 22.9 points per game, conceding 202.9 yards per game through the air and 144 on the ground.

Other than coach Smith out, I think Ohio has the advantage across the board in this matchup. It has the firepower to keep up with UNLV, as evidenced by the fact that the Bobcats posted over 35 points in two of their final three games down the stretch.

Ohio's strength on the offensive end is running the football, and UNLV was one of the worst in the country in stopping the run. Expect the Bobcats to pound the ball in this one

They also, by far, have the superior defense. Granted, UNLV also runs the ball really well, but now it faces one of the better run defenses that it's seen all year. 

The bottom line here is that I think UNLV's inability to run the ball effectively will put added pressure on Colandrea to make a play, and that will eventually lead to a few major mistakes.

I'm going to suggest "sprinkling" a little on the moneyline as well, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with OHIO in the 2025 Frisco Bowl.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOWL GOM on Oregon.

I think James Madison deserves to be in the College Football Playoff, but that said, Oregon looks poised for a serious run at the crown in my opinion. 

The Ducks are 11-1, the only loss coming to No. 1 ranked Indian. 

Oregon's defense is going to ware down the Dukes in the second half and allow the DUCKS to pos the comfortable win and cover.

Lay the points with confidence on OREGON.

Good luck, NP

This is a CFP WINNER on Alabama.

Alabama will always be a fan favorite team across the country, regardless of who is under center or who is coaching the team, likely for the foreseeable future.

The Crimson Tide, though, has several situational factors working in their favor in the College Football Playoff, including playing with the "revenge" factor following a 23-21 loss to the Sooners at home in Week 12 as 6.5-point favorites.

Alabama finished 10-3 overall, including 7-1 in SEC action, while the Sooners were 10-2 overall, including 6-2 in conference play.

If you had the Sooners in that first matchup, you probably consider yourself lucky after Oklahoma was outgained a whopping 406 to 212, but was the beneficiary of three timely turnovers. 

Alabama then recovered to win its final two regular-season games before falling to a more talented Georgia team in the SEC title game.

The Tide were uncharacteristically 4 for 17 on third and fourth down, and they allowed Georgia to dominate the time of possession by nearly 14 minutes.

But I like Ty Simpson and Alabama to bounce back in this revenge spot. Simpson finished with 3,268 passing yards and a sharp 26-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Senior running back Jam Miller had 493 yards and three touchdowns in nine games for Alabama. 

Simpson leads an offense that averages 31.2 points per game, and then on the other side of the ball, the Tide concedes only 17.4.

Oklahoma finished the regular season strong as well by winning five of its last six, including its final four. The Sooners, though, looked pretty mediocre in their regular-season finale at home against LSU, holding on for the 17-13 win as 12-point favorites. Jon Mateer had over 300 yards passing, but the Sooners also committed three turnovers and eight penalties to keep LSU in the game.

Mateer finished with 2,578 passing yards and a poor 12-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio over 11 games. 

The Sooners rely on their run game offensively, though with a three-headed attack featuring Tory Blalock, Xavier Robinson, and Mateer himself, who finished with 416 rushing yards and seven other touchdowns.

Oklahoma only averages 26.4 points per game, making up for it on the other end by conceding just 13.4.

I think the Sooners looked pretty bad in that final regular-season game, and I think this is now a big opportunity for the Tide to respond and show everyone that they're better than the team that just lost to Georgia.

The Tide nearly outgained the Sooners by 200 yards in the first matchup, but were undone by three uncharacteristic turnovers. Let's not expect "lightning to strike twice" for the Sooners here. 

Oklahoma had, in fact, forced just ten turnovers in their other 11 games this season, and I just can't see them winning the turnover battle twice against the Tide.

Simpson actually had a decent game in defeat to Oklahoma, finishing with 326 passing yards for 7.8 yards per play

Oklahoma's offense relies on controlling the clock, but the Tide actually held the Sooners to only 2.6 yards per carry in the first matchup.

The Tide's defense is built to stop the run, and that's going to put a lot of pressure on Mateer to try and keep pace with Simpson.

But Mateer doesn't generate a lot of offense downfield, as the team ranks 116th in the country with a 34 percent completion percentage on throws of 15-plus yards.

I think the better team is going to win, and to me, that's the Tide, through all three phases. 

That's how I see the rematch going down, rolling with ALABAMA to avenge the earlier loss and move on to the next stage of the College Football Playoff.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOWL WINNER on Missouri State.

Missouri State finished 7-5, including 5-3 in the Conference USA and while the Bears did drop their final two games, I think their high-powered offense will be too much for the Red Wolves to keep up to down the stretch.

The Bears most recently fell 42-20 to Louisiana Tech, while Arkansas State, which finished 6-6 overall and 5-3 in the Sun Belt, closed the year with a tight 30-29 win over Appalachian State to punch its ticket to this bowl game.

Missouri State has a lot to be excited about, though, despite the two game losing streak right at the end of the season as the Bears would go on to win seven games in their first season as an FBS team and finished tied for fourth in the Conference USA.

The Bears will be playing with an interim head coach in Nick Petrino, son of Bobby Petrino, as Ryan Beard left for the Coastal Carolina position. 

Petrino, though, has been the offensive coordinator since 2020. He leads a Bears team into this Bowl game that averages 25.4 points per game.

Missouri State quarterback Jacob Clark completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while running back Shomari Lawrence has 964 rushing and seven touchdowns.

The Red Wolves had their backs against the wall in their final game of the year, but they snapped a two-game slide with the win over the Mountaineers.

They beat Bowling Green in last year's 68 Ventures Bowl, but they come into this contest averaging just 24.4 points per game. 

Arkansas State is led by Jaylen Raynor, who completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,073 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. 

But, as I said at the start, I think the Bears' offense will be too much for the Red Wolves to keep up with in the second half.

Missouri State played extremely well offensively down the stretch, scoring at least 30 points in its final three games. 

The Bears have the advantage on both sides of the ball and I think they'll be the much more motivated team in this Bowl Game.

The play is on MISSOURI STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a CURE BOWL TOTAL on the UNDER ODU/USF.

I guess I'm jumping on the bandwagon with everyone else on the UNDER, because with both star quarterbacks opting out of the Cure Bowl at the Camping World Stadium for each team, I don't see a lot of offensive production happening either. 

Both teams finished 9-3, but the Monarchs could have the upper hand here, as, other than their starting quarterback, they have the rest of their team on both sides of the ball, including the coaching staff.

South Florida, on the other hand, is not only missing its star quarterback, but it'll also have a new interim head coach, with a retooled offense, which, as I say, could make Old Dominion the correct call as far as a side is concerned. I'd lean that way anyway.

But I ultimately feel that playing the total is the far sharper move.

Clearly, inexperience at the quarterback position, especially in big games, can lead to conservative play-calling. 

And with Old Dominion turning to true freshman Quinn Henicle, and South Florida countering with Gaston Moore, that's exactly what we can expect from each side.

These teams had above-average defensive units as well, with Old Dominion allowing 19.5 points per game and South Florida conceding only 23.

The team that protects the ball, wins time of possession, turnover, and field position battles, is going to come out on top in this one, in my estimation.

Neither defense was burned by too many big plays during the regular season, and with the change at quarterback in such a big moment, I'm expecting these defenses to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries.

With each having to put an added emphasis on establishing the run game throughout to take the pressure off their quarterbacks, all of these different situational factors collide to make the UNDER the most logical call as far as I'm concerned when it comes to the total in the 2025 Cure Bowl.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOWL PLAY on Jacksonville State.

We have an interesting Bowl matchup here between Troy and Jacksonville State on Tuesday night in the Salute To Veterans Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. 

Interestingly, both teams are from Alabama, but this is the first time that they've played against each other.

Troy finished 8-5, including 6-2 in Sun Belt action, but the Trojans would eventually fall 31-14 to James Madison in the Conference Championship Game.

Jacksonville State finished 8-5 overall, including 7-1 in the Conference USA. The Gamecocks finished tied for first with Kennesaw State, but they lost to the Owls 19-15 in the Conference Championship Game.

The Trojans averaged only 24.3 points per game, which ranked 97th, while allowing 24.5, which ranked 60th. 

Goose Crowder returned from injury to play in the loss to James Madison, and he threw for 1,314 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Troy's leading rusher was Tae Meadows, who finished with 695 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but he's entered the transfer portal and will not play in this one.

That really puts pressure on the Owls' quarterback to perform, and turns their already one-dimensional offense even more so in my opinion.

On the other side of the field, Jacksonville State averaged 30.2 points per game, which was ranked 59th, while allowing 26.8, ranked 78th.

Quarterback Cade Creel passed for 1,341 yards with eight touchdowns, but it was the ground game that carried the Gamecocks this season, with Cam Cook leading the way with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.

Creel wasn't far behind, though, with 1,085 rushing yards and seven other touchdowns.

I think Creel and Cook are in a far better position here to bounce back. Troy's glaring weakness is stopping the run, as it concedes 182.3 yards per game on the ground, while the strength of Jacksonville State on offense is running the ball, where it averages 279.5 yards per game, which is ranked third in the nation.

Also note that Crowder is listed as "questionable" for this game for the Trojans as well, so if he does play under center, he won't be at 100% health.

And finally, the loss of Tae Meadows in the backfield for Troy is another significant blow that I just can't see the Trojans recovering from.

Add it all up, and everything points to an outright victory for JACKSONVILLE STATE, in my opinion, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOWL WINNER on Boise State.

Boise State finished 9-4 and I think it has the firepower to hang with the 8-4 Washington Huskies down the stretch of the LA Bowl on Saturday, and that's why I'm grabbing the points.

Boise State has an experienced quarterback in Maddux Madsen, who was 17 of 31 for 289 yards and three touchdowns in his team's 38-21 win over UNLV in the Broncos' regular-season finale.

The Huskies closed the regular-season with a 26-14 loss to Oregon, with quarterback Desmond Williams posting mixed-results in the setback, going 15 of 30 for 129 yards, two touchdowns, but also two interceptions. 

On the season the Broncos average 31.4 points per game, which ranks 54th, while conceding 23, which ranks 40th.

Meanwhile, the Huskies enter averaging 36.8 points per game, ranked 19th, while allowing 21.2, ranked 23rd.

It's time to Go Bowling, but it's also time to be careful. Players can still "opt-out" leading up to kick-off, but so far everything points to these teams entering this one with full rosters.

Whether that's the case or not, I think the balance and depth that the Broncos bring on both sides of the ball will keep this one a lot tighter than what this spread is suggesting, so I'm grabbing the points with BOISE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Army/Navy.

The College Football World will be watching the annual Army/Navy game on Saturday from M&T Stadium, with the Black Knights set to play the Midshipmen for the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy.

Blake Horvath leads a Navy offense that ranks sixth in the AAC by averaging 33 points per game. Horvath is a true dual-threat QB who can beat you with his arm and with his legs.

That'll be difficult for Army to keep up with. The Black Knights became bowl-eligible with their 27-24 road win at UTSA last time out, so it's hard to imagine a "letdown" in this rivalry game, but there is a possibility for sure.

Also note that Army only averages 22.8 points per game.

But where the Black Knights do match the Midshipmen without question is on the defensive end, as they're conceding 22.5 points per game, which is ranked second in the AAC. 

Navy isn't far behind, though, conceding 27.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the conference.

And if history is any precedent, then we should all absolutely expect a very defensive battle, as the last ten Army/Navy games have gone 2-7-1 to the UNDER.

The books are daring us to take the OVER here. Begging the public to take the OVER in my opinion. I'm not falling for the bait.

Full on contrarian, just the way I like it.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP SIDE on Indiana.

It all comes down to this! 

Indiana enters at 12-0, while Ohio State enters are 12-0 as well.

Two teams enter, one team leaves undefeated. Everything is on the line here for these two Schools, but only one can advance.

I see this game coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, though, and because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

Indiana closed out the season with a 56-3 win at Purdue, going on to easily cover the 28-point spread, while Ohio State got past Michigan by a score of 27-9 as a 9-point fav.

These teams haven't played since last season, but in that game Ohio State won here by a score of 38-15 as a 10.5-point favorite.

The Hoosiers' game-plan today will be simple; push the ball and score some points! Indiana enters averaging 48.4 points per game, which ranks No. 1 in the country. 

But not to be outdone, the Hoosiers defense is only conceding 11.9, which ranks second. 

Ohio State's numbers are almost as impressive, as the Buckeyes average 40.4 points per game, which ranks 11th, while allowing only 8.5, which ranks first.

We have the nation's best offense, going up against the country's No. 1 defense.

But neither is a slouch on the other side of the ball either, obviously.

Julian Sayin has been fantastic for Ohio State, and if the Buckeyes win today, he's going to play a big part.

But, Fernando Mendoza is a true dual-threat QB for Indiana, and I believe he'll match Sayin throughout.

Indiana has a big opportunity here to change the narrative in the conference, and while I do think the outright win is the most likely outcome for the HOOSIERS, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a SEC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL on the OVER Georgia/Alabama.

Georgia enters the SEC Championship Game at 11-1, while Alabama is 10-2. The Bulldogs were 3-0 SU on the road and 2-0-1 ATS, while the Tide was 6-1 SU and ATS at home.

These teams played against each other on September 27th of this season, and Alabama walked away with a 24-21 upset outright road win as a 2.5-point underdog.

Now here we are just over two months later at Alabama, but the Tide are once again 2.5-point underdogs.

Alabama may or may not go on to win outright once again on Saturday, but what I do fully expect is that this will once again be a competitive, but much higher-scoring affair this time around.

While the first matchup was dominated by these fantastic defenses, I'm predicting the rematch to have a much faster overall pace to it, which will in turn lead to a lot more scoring.

Georgia enters averaging 35.2 points per game, which is ranked 35th in the country, while allowing only 18.2, which is ranked 12th.

Alabama, on the other hand, averages 36.3 points per game, which ranks 25th, while allowing only 18, which ranks 11th.

Both teams are coming off big wins over bitter rivals last weekend to a clinch a spot in the Championship Game and with so much on the line, clearly both sides will be feeling confident.

We have two of the most dynamic quarterback in the country going head-to-head in this one in Ty Simpson and Gunner Stockton and I expect them to take "center stage" so to speak in this one.

This number is a bit low in my opinion, so the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on the UNDER in UNLV/Boise.

UNLV is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Boise State is 8-4, including 5-1 on the road.

These teams played on October 18th here, and the Broncos won in a 56-31 blowout. While their first game flew well OVER the number, I think the rematch here in the Conference Title Game will be a much more defensive affair for a few different reasons.

Note as well that this is the only conference championship rematch from last season.

If history is any precedent, though, then we already know who the winner is going to be, as the Broncos have won ten straight in this series, including all four meetings in the last three years, beating UNLV 21-7 in last year's MWC Championship Game.

While they may combine for a few more points this season, I'm absolutely expecting another very tight and lower-scoring battle, as I said.

Boise State welcomes back quarterback Maddux Madsen for this one, who has been out since the November 1st game against Fresno State.

In the win over UNLV, he was efficient, finishing with 250 yards passing and two touchdowns. Madsen, overall though, has taken a step back with his offensive performance this year, entering with a pedestrian 15-to-7 TD-INT ratio. In comparison, by this time last year, he had 3,000 yards passing and a 23:6 TD:INT. 

UNLV had to navigate its way here through a very difficult tiebreaker process with a few different teams, which really saw New Mexico get screwed over. Either way, the Rebels are here, but probably "LUCKY" to be here type thing.

The Rebels have no issues on offense with quarterback Anthony Colandrea, a true dual-threat QB who finished with a combined 3,600 yards of offense this year. He's responsible for 30 touchdowns himself this season.

But, UNLV is a bit one-dimensional, which will only help this aggressive Bronco's defense at home.

Boise State's offense is probably in the Top-20 in the Nation, while the Broncos' defense is Top-30.

The metrics favor the home side and their superior defense in this one. But also note that the weather is likely going to play a factor in this one as well, with rainy, damp, and possibly even foggy conditions. 

Madsen's rusty and with each side looking to avoid making mistakes as well, as I believe all of these situational factors will combine and help to drive this total well UNDER the posted number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an AAC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP on Tulane.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome for the Green Wave, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can.

North Texas enters the AAC Championship Game at 11-1 SU, including 5-0 SU on the road and 4-1 ATS away from friendly confines.

Tulane is 10-2 overall, including 6-0 SU at home and 3-3 ATS.

These teams haven't played a game against each other since October 26th, 2024, when the Green Wave won 45-37 on the road as seven-point favorites.

North Texas enters averaging 46.8 points per game, which is ranked fourth, while allowing 24.2, ranked 49th. 

Tulane averages 31.3 points per game, while conceding 24.8.

The Green Wave enter off a 27-0 home win over Charlotte in their final regular season game, as they prepared for this Conference Championship matchup, while North Texas pulled away for a 52-25 win over Temple in its finale.

North Texas' quarterback Drew Mestemaker finished with 366 yards passing and three touchdowns in the victory, while Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff had 291 yards and a pair of one-yard touchdown runs in the Green Wave's final win.

Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall has been named the head coach at Florida, but he's still expected to lead the Green Wave in the Championship game. 

We have to compare the strength of schedule between these evenly matched sides, and when we do, we find that they're pretty evenly matched in that category as well.

But I think the difference right now comes on the defensive end, where North Texas has conceded a combined 49 points to Rice and Temple over its final two games, while Tulane conceded a total of 13 points in its final two victories over Temple and Charlotte.

And throw in the home field advantage and with a spot in the College Football Playoff, I'm grabbing the points and rolling with the TULANE GREEN WAVE.

Good luck, NP

This is a CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOP on the UNDER.

Both of these teams have played to several high-scoring games this season, including against each other back on November 15th, when Jacksonville State posted the 35-26 home upset over Kennesaw State as a 3.5-point underdog, but I believe the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned, as I like the UNDER here in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Kennesaw State finished 9-3 SU overall, but just 3-3 SU/ATS on the road, while Jacksonville State finished 8-4 overall, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home.

The Owls average 31.7 points per game, which ranks 57th, while allowing 27.4, which ranks 72nd. The Gamecocks are averaging 32.9 points per game, which ranks 46th, while conceding 29.2, which ranks 87th.

Kennesaw State, though, needed double overtime to get past Liberty on the road last time out in a high-scoring 48-42 victory, but I think fatigue will now be an issue this weekend. Owls' quarterback Amari Odom threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns. 

The Owls will face a Jacksonville State team that's undefeated at home through the five games and which is also off a last-second victory, hitting a field goal as time expired to win 37-34 over Western Kentucky. 

Jacksonville State has been extremely adept at running the ball this year, as it's the only team in the conference to average more than 200 rushing yards per contest. Quarterback Caden Creel was 12 of 19 for 204 passing yards and two TDs, but he also ran for 143 yards and a touchdown.

One other player to keep your eye on here today for Jacksonville State is running back Cam Cook, who ranks first among FBS Players for rushing yards with 1,583.

We saw a lot of penalties from each side in their first matchup, and it's hard to see so many called again here in the Conference Championship.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched, and this one really does feel like a "coin toss" as far as a side is concerned.

But with so much on the line here, I think the rematch will be much more defensive overall, and so I'm on the UNDER in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Good luck, NP

This is a SEC GOY on Auburn.

Alabama is 9-2 overall, including 3-1 SU on the road, but just 1-2-1 ATS away from friendly confines, while Auburn is 5-6 and needing one more win to become bowl-eligible.

Much like Texas took out Texas A&M last night, I think the Tigers are going to dig deep here in this crucial Senior Night contest and, at the very least, deliver the goods here with the points that they've been afforded in this matchup.

Alabama averages 37.2 PPG and is led by QB Ty Simpson. They allow 17.8.

Auburn averages 27.4 PPG, while conceding 20.1. The Tigers are led by senior QB Ashton Daniels. But they'll also utilize dual-threat QB Deuce Knight, as this Bama' defense has had difficulties with dual-threat QB's this season.

I'm expecting this one to be extremely competitive, so I'm grabbing the points with AUBURN.

Good luck, NP

This is a RIVALRY GOY on Georgia Tech.

There is a lot on the line for both teams in this rivalry matchup. Note that this is the first time since 2014 that each side enters this particular game with nine or more victories, and only the second time since 1942.

Georgia enters off a 35-3 win over UNC Charlotte to move to 10-1, while Georgia Tech lost 42-28 to Pittsburgh to fall to 9-2.

Georgia Tech has a way, though, of playing up to the level of its competition in big games and moments. Brent Key has directed several big victories over the last few years, including over a ranked North Carolina with Drake Maye, No. 4 Miami last season, and this year against No. 12 Clemson.

The Yellow Jackets also almost won this game last year, eventually falling 44-42 in overtime. And that was on the Bulldogs' field.

Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King has now faded from the Heisman talk after his tough performance against Pittsburgh, but what better way to end your senior regular season outing at home than with a "lights out" performance against the No. 5 team in the Nation? In last year's loss, he had 303 yards passing and two touchdowns. 

But he's a true dual-threat, of course, and also had 110 yards rushing.

Georgia has a lot of new faces and an even better defense this year, but I think King will be a difference-maker in this one for the Yellow Jackets. He's certainly got plenty of motivation to draw upon after last week's sub-par performance and last year's revenge factor.

One other factor last week was that RB Malachi Hosley missed most of that game due to injury, but he's now been cleared to go at 100% this week. 

Many doubted the Bulldogs after their 24-21 loss to Alabama back on September 27th, but coach Kirby Smart has his team entering this rivalry game on a seven-game win streak.

The win over Texas two weeks ago puts Georgia in position to go to the SEC Title game against Texas A&M, but Alabama has the tiebreaker if it beats Auburn on the road. 

But a victory here for the Bulldogs will essentially solidify their spot in the College Football Playoff, seven if they don't make it to the SEC Title game.

Suffice it to say, it's a really big game for both teams. Gunner Stockton has been key to the Bulldogs' success once again this year, as he has 2,465 passing yards to go along with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions. 

There will be opportunities for the Yellow Jackets, though, as while the Bulldogs are excellent against the run in conceding only 96.4 yards per game, they're only average against the pass in conceding 227.6. 

Look for the home-field factor to play a part here on Senior Night as well.

I'm not calling for an outright upset, or even a super-tight OT game like last year. But I do definitely expect King and the hungry Yellow Jackets to keep it interesting down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is on GEORGIA TECH.

Good luck, NP

This is an AAC TOY on the UNDER Navy/Memphis.

As being primarily a "situational" capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a "run-and-gun" shootout.

This is a big game for each side.

Navy is 8-2 SU, including only 2-2 SU on the road and 1-3 ATS away from friendly confines, while Memphis is 8-3 SU and ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS at home.

Navy will still, of course, play Army on December 13th this season.

The Midshipmen snapped a two-game slide with a 41-38 win at home over USF last time out as 9.5-point underdogs. Navy has now seen the total fly OVER the number in five of its last six.

Memphis has seen the total go OVER in four straight, but it's coming in off consecutive losses, most recently a 31-27 setback at East Carolina as a three-point dog.

That was two weeks ago, and now the Tigers are hoping to close out the regular season with their ninth win on Senior Night. But, even a win won't get them through to the Conference Title game. The Tigers did enter November as the top-ranked team in the Group of Five, but the two straight losses have now ended those hopes. And so that's a sixth year in a row that the Tigers will miss out on the Conference Championship game.

But if the Midshipmen win, then they still have a shot at a spot in the big game.

Navy managed a 56-44 win over Memphis last year as a 9.5-point underdog, so the Midshipmen will be coming in confident, especially after the key victory over the Bulls.

Memphis does have the two weeks off to prepare for this one, and more specifically for Navy quarterback Blake Horvath, who posted 400 yards and six touchdowns in last year's upset.

This season, Horvath has thrown for 1,290 yards and rushed for 986. 

If Memphis is going to win this one, though, and its Bowl game, it'll earn double-digit victories for a third straight year.

And to do that, the Tigers will be leaning heavily on their run game today. Quarterback Brendon Lewis did get some extra time to rest a twisted ankle over the last two weeks. He's key to their run game. 

The Tigers will look to limit the time that Navy and its option game, which means running the ball from start to finish, in this one.

Navy is still in line for a Conference Title, which would mean a spot in the College Football playoff.

As I said, there is a lot on the line for both teams. 

When taking into account the home-field advantage for Memphis, these teams really are evenly matched, I think.

The team that wins is going to be the one that protects the ball the best and wins the field position battle.

While these sides have played too many high-scoring games of late, including in their matchup last year, and while most are expecting another high-scoring outcome, I say the value has now for sure swung the other way as far as the total is concerned, a great "situational" play on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MAC GOW on WMU.

Eastern Michigan, at 4-7, will not qualify for a bowl, even if it does win this game. The Eagles have been 3-point favorites each of the last two weeks and they've dug deep to beat Bowling Green and Ball State, but I think they come up short here on Senior Night against the highly-motivated WMU Broncos.

Western Michigan is looking to move to 8-4 and 7-1 in conference action, which would seal the deal on the Regular Season title. Ohio and Toledo are 7-4 overall as well, but just 5-2 in conference play.

So, the Conference is theirs to win or lose tonight. Eastern Michigan would love to play spoiler of course, but after two straight wins and with nothing really on the line here, I smell an imminent letdown here from the Eagles.

The Broncos won this game 26-18 at home as 6.5-point favorites last year, but I'm expecting an even bigger final discrepancy in the score this season.

WMU averages 360 YPG, which ranks 112th in the country, while conceding 316.6, which ranks 13th.

Eastern Michigan is averaging 369.6 yards per game, which ranks 104th, but it concedes 419.7, which ranks 84th.

Clearly, the difference between these teams comes on the defensive end.

But, it is in fact a lot more than that, with Western Michigan getting the nod in the Special Teams department as well.

WMU quarterback Broc Lowry has 1,472 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Lowry also leads the ground game with 763 yards and 12 other rushing touchdowns.

Dealing with dual-threat quarterbacks is not something the Eagles have had much success with though. 

Eastern Michigan is more one-dimensional on offense though, with quarterback Noah Kim throwing for 2,490 yards 16 touchdowns, but also eight interceptions.

Western Michigan is playing much better football and the Conference Regular Season Title is in its grasp, and I think the Broncos will step up here and take advantage. 

Look for the combination of Lowry, the Broncos' superior defensive play, the ultimate reward of a conference championship to propel WESTERN MICHIGAN to win and cover here on Tuesday.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 GOY on Cincinnati.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up for 7-3 Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are 5-1 straight up at home and 3-3 against the spread.

BYU is 9-1 overall, including 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread as the visitor this season.

It's Senior Night for the Bearcats, as they'll travel to TCU to close out the regular season, while BYU has a "cream puff" at home to finish the season against currently 4-6 UCF.

One week after dropping their first game of the year in a 29-7 setback at Texas Tech, the Cougars bounced back with a solid 44-13 victory over TCU as three-point favorites.

The Bearcats, though, come in as the "hungrier" team here as they now try desperately to avoid a three-game slide, most recently falling 30-24 here last week to Arizona as six-point favorites. 

The Cougars are the 12th-ranked team in the country and are only allowing 17.8 points per game. They're, of course, led by Bear Bachmeier, but the Bearcats have the offense to match pace.

Cincinnati is averaging 34.4 points per game, and if they hadn't turned the ball over twice to the Wildcats last week, they'd be entering this contest at 8-2 instead of at 7-3. 

One player to keep your eyes on for the Bearcats is running back Tawee Walker, who had 119 yards on just 12 carries in last week's losing effort.

This BYU defense is going to be tested from the Opening kickoff until the final whistle, and I think the hungrier and more determined home side will play spoiler here on BYU's National Championship spot, while putting itself in a much better bowl position at the same time.

The play is on CINCINNATI.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland.

While I'm not calling for the outright win or anything, I love the way this one sets up for the basically two TD underdog home side.

I'm not going to try and pretend that the Terps really have a chance at winning this game outright, but they'll certainly be giving their best possible effort sitting at 4-6, with two games remaining to become bowl eligible. 

Maryland is 3-3 at home and it plays another tough game next week against Michigan State.

These teams haven't played since 2023 and in that game the Wolverines held on for the 31-24 victory as a 17.5-point favorite. 

I think they'll once again have their hands full with a Maryland side trying to pull off the outright upset. 

It's difficult to say too many negative things about 8-2 Michigan, but it's  not too far-fetched to see the visitors taking the foot off the gas as they prepare for their final home game next week against Ohio State.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up for Maryland quarterback Malik Washington and the home side to, at the very least, keep this one competitive, especially in the second half.

Maryland has lost six straight, so the Terps only have themselves to blame being in this position. 

But I think the motivated home side will post the solid cover, as note that Michigan's Bryce Underwood actually has less passing yards than Washington this season. 

With the visitors resting starters almost assuredly in the second half in preparation for the Buckeyes, look for the TERRAPINS to quietly, but comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is an ACC GOM on NC State.

It doesn't get more dramatic that this contest here on Friday night. Neither of these ACC teams has lived up to expectations this season, but the victor will punch its ticket to a bowl, while the loser will still have one more chance to accomplish that.

So which team comes in more motivated? Which sides enjoys more significant situational advantages?

When taking into account several different criteria, I actually believe that NC State has a very legitimate shot at just winning this game outright.

But getting points here at home feels like a gift. The Wolfpack are 5-5 and the Seminoles are 5-5. 

Florida State though is 0-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this season, while NC State is 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread at home this year.

In a situation like this, "home field advantage" really does matter. 

The Seminoles will have one last chance after this if they come up short at currently 3-7 Florida, while the Wolfpack faces currently 4-6 North Carolina at home. If NC State comes up short this weekend, and North Carolina gets past Duke this weekend, then the Wolfpack will have a colossal end of season battle on their hands.

Clearly, both teams are equally as "motivated" here, so we can throw that situational factor out the window.

These teams haven't played since 2022, and in that game NC State won 19-17 at home as a 3-point favorite.

NC State's defense has been terrible, but Seminoles' QB Thomas Castellanos has been consistently inconsistent all year, and I don't trust him on the road.

Here's the perfect opportunity for this Wolfpack defense to get back on track.

The Noles have been stout against the pass, but struggled in stopping anyone on the ground.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

It's a great situational play on NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on Kent State.

I really love the way this one sets up for the 4-6 Kent State Flashes? Can Kent State pull off the outright upset and keep its bowl berth chances alive?

The answer is, possibly. 

They're coming off a bowl-saving 42-35 OT win at Akron last weekend as a 7.5-point underdog, and now here they are at home on Senior Night, with the season on the line once again and getting even more points.

Suppose the Flashes can manage to find a way to win this one outright. In that case, they'd close the season with a favorable matchup at 3-7 Northern Illinois, which has already officially been eliminated from bowl contention.

In the overtime win, Kent State quarterback Dru DeShields had one of the best games of his life, going 17 of 25 for 317 yards and five touchdowns.

Also, note that Kent State has absolutely played its best Football at home this year, going 3-1 SU and ATS.

6-4 Central Michigan is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this season.

The pressure is off the Chips, though, who pulled away for the 38-19 win at home over Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites last week to earn their sixth win of the season. CMU is 3-1 and 4-0 ATS over its last four, but now that it's earned eligibility, I think a predictable letdown could be imminent here. 

Central Michigan then closes out the season with a game at home against currently 6-4 Toledo.

The Chips are, of course, led by quarterback Joe Labas, who has 1,313 passing yards, but a pretty mediocre 10-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio. 

CMU also has a strong run game, with three strong backs that have combined for 1,779 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.

DeSheilds is the much better quarterback in this matchup without question, as he's thrown for 1,638 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. 

He's complemented by a strong run game as well, led by Gavin Garcia, who has 419 rushing yards and two touchdowns. 

In my opinion, these teams are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. If this game were played on a neutral field, that would make Kent State a 12.5-point underdog.

Use whatever cliche sports phrase you want here for the Golden Flashes: "Dor Or Die!" "Now Or Never!" etc, etc.

If CMU hadn't JUST posted its sixth win, then I'd likely be backing the Chips in this spot, but for all the reasons I've just stated, I think KENT STATE and all of these points are the correct call. 

Good luck, NP

This is a MAC TOW on the UNDER Akron/Bowling Green.

As primarily a situational capper, where I'm looking at these College Football teams' schedules and their overall records, we've reached the point of the season where "motivation" plays a big part in whether a team will or won't cover the spread. At least from my viewpoint, anyway.

At 4-7, and with only one game remaining after this on the road at lowly Bowling Green, the Zips will not be able to qualify for a Bowl this season.

They played their last two games at home, beating UMass 44-10 as an 11.5-point favorite, before then falling 42-35 in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite at home to Kent State last week.

It was a devastating setback for Ben Finley and the Zips, and I think that a massive letdown is imminent here from the visiting side, with now nothing really to play for.

Can't even play spoiler, because Bowling Green is 3-7, and even if it wins this game, and next week's contest at Massachusetts, the Green Falcons will also not be heading to a Bowl game this year.

The Falcons have struggled with consistency on both sides of the ball, but mainly with their offense. They've lost four straight and posted 51 total points in the process. 

In their last home game two weeks ago, they lost 28-3 to Buffalo as three-point favorites, with neither QB Drew Pine nor Hunter Najm connecting on a TD pass. In fact, they were a combined 11 of 28 for 100 yards and one interception.

Both teams are now looking ahead and planning for next season. The Green Falcons are favored at home here on Senior Night as they're still 3-2 at home, while Akron is only 1-4 on the road.

These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Each is struggling offensively coming into this one, and I don't see that changing now that they've both been mathematically eliminated from contention.

Each has been decent defensively of late, though.

The last time these teams played against each other, Bowling Green won 27-20 as a 16-point favorite last October. Clearly, a lot has changed since then for both sides.

But in that game, they combined for 20 points in the fourth quarter, and I don't see that happening this year.

Both teams still had a lot to play for last October, but now, here a year later in late November, that's not the case.

So, to circle back to what I was saying at the start, and taking into account everything I just listed, I think this contest sets up great from a situational standpoint to produce a lower-scoring final combined outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an SEC GOM on Mississippi State.

Mississippi State is 5-5 and needs one more win to become eligible. With a game at home against 9-1 Ole Miss next week, this game here at Missouri becomes crucial.

The Tigers are 6-3 and have lost two in a row, and they still have two games left after this to look ahead to.

I think Bulldogs' QB Blake Shapen will keep his team competitive in this important game and while I won't rule out an outright victory, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with MISSISSIPPI STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Minnesota/Oregon.

Minnesota is 6-3 SU, including 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, while Oregon is 8-1 SU, including 4-1 at home.

The Ducks are off consecutive low-scoring victories, but I expect the home side to open things up here at home against the Gophers, who have been terrible on the road this season.

The Gophers got their sixth win of the year in their last outing, beating Michigan State 23-20 in overtime.

In their previous road game though they got destroyed 4-1 at Iowa. I foresee the Ducks putting up similar offensive numbers here at home as well against this suspect Minnesota secondary.

Oregon has looked sharp defensively of late, but I expect Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey to keep his team competitive over the first half anyways.

This number is low in my opinion, I'm on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on Miami Ohio.

As being primarily a "situational" capper, right off the bat, we can throw out the "motivation" factor as something to take a look at with any great seriousness, in my opinion.

Both teams are 5-4 and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Neither wants to leave anything to chance; each is equally as "motivated" to win today.

So, we need to look at other factors to determine today's victor, and while I do think an outright win is the most likely outcome here for the RedHawks, in the end, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can as the official play.

And I like Miami Ohio, in this spot for a few different reasons.

Yes, both teams are 5-4 straight up, but the Rockets are 0-4 SU on the road, and 1-3 against the spread, while the RedHawks are 3-1 SU/ATS in front of the hometown crowd.

The RedHawks have two tough games at the end of the year against teams that will also be searching for their sixth win at Buffalo, and then at home against Ball State. Either way, it really does feel like "do or die" for the RedHawks in this one to me.

The Rockets also have two potentially difficult contests to end the year, at home against Ball State and on the road at CMU.

I think that the "home field" advantage is huge in this spot right now, with each team looking ahead to the final portion of the season.

Miami Ohio also plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here, after it lost 30-20 at Toledo last October.

Although we can't use "motivation" as a judge in this game, this one still sets up great from a situational standpoint for the home side.

These teams are similar in that they like to push the pace. 

Toledo's Tucker Gleason isn't going to be able to keep up with Miami Ohio's dual-threat QB DeQuan Finn, in my opinion. 

I say there are enough situational factors working in favor of Miami Ohio today to think that it could win this one outright, but let's grab the points with the REDHAWKS.

Good luck, NP

This is a MAC GOW on WMU.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up for the "hungrier" home side.

Ohio is 6-3 and now bowl eligible after its 24-20 win over Miami Ohio last week. I had a play on the Bobcats, and they were in fact "lucky" to score a late TD to earn the small cover (although I had on the moneyline).

After three straight wins and having just earned eligibility, I feel that the Bobcats are going to suffer a classic letdown here on the road, despite being No. 1 in the MAC right now.

If Ohio has had one glaring weakness this season, though, it's been its play on the road where it just 1-3 straight up and only 1-2-1 against the spread.

Western Michigan enters at 5-4. It's won five of its last six overall and it's 4-1 straight up and against the spread at home this season.

The last time these teams played was in Ohio in October of 2023 and the Bobcats held on for the 20-17 win as 16.5-point favorites. 

The Bobcats are in fact tied atop the standings with three other teams. Ohio averages 28.7 points per game and concedes 24.2.

Quarterback Parker Navarro has 1,987 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 536 yards and four other touchdowns. 

Note that Ohio WR's Max Rodarte and Eamon Dennis both listed as questionable for this one. 

Western Michigan averages 22.3 points per game, while allowing only 19. Quarterback Broc Lowry has throw for 1,314 yards and owns a sharp 7 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio, while also leading the team with 125 carries and 591 rushing yards, along with another eight touchdowns on the ground.

Western Michigan has two favorable games to close the year against Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan, but both are on the road. Better not to leave anything to chance on "Senior Night," as the Broncos will look to seal the deal on the Bowl bid with a win in front of the home town crowd in their final chance to do so.

I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, but I'm grabbing the short points with WESTERN MICHIGAN.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Kansas/Arizona.

Kansas is 5-4 and Arizona is 5-3 and each is running out of chances to become bowl eligible. That said, the winner of this game will in fact punch their ticket to a bowl game, and because of that I'm expecting a very defensive affair in this one.

Kansas snapped a two-game slide with a 38-21 win over toothless Oklahoma sate at home last week, while Arizona also snapped a two-game losing streak with a convincing 52-17 win over a now 3-6 Colorado Buffalo team.

Arizona won't want to leave anything to chance with tough upcoming games against Cincinnati, Baylor and Arizona State to end the season.

Same thing for Kansas with games at Iowa State, followed by a home game vs. Utah to finish the year.

With each team off a win, and with each facing a difficult upcoming schedule to finish the year, this almost becomes a "must win" scenario for each side.

Because of that, I really do see this being an extremely defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Both teams have seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, and that's why the majority of bettors are once again quick to back another high-scoring affair.

Because this game is being played in Arizona, I'm expecting the Wildcats to dictate the tempo of play, and note that Arizona is ranked fourth in the Big 12 Conference in total defense, conceding just 20.3 PPG. Last week they forced five turnovers, but also benefitted from Colorado posting 110 penalty yards.

Either way, I see the winner of this game being the one that protects the ball and wins the time of possession.

This number is high, so the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 10 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Ohio State/Purdue.

Ohio State is 8-0 and a huge favorite here on the road against 2-7 Purdue. No spread has been too large for the Buckeyes yet, as they're also a near-perfect 7-1 ATS this season as well.

It should be smooth sailing for the Buckeyes though to close out the season, with home games against UCLA and Rutgers, before finishing the year at Michigan.

Purdue is off seven straight losses and can only play for pride here, as there's no chance it can play spoiler. That said, after playing to four straight UNDERS, I think a determined home side will put some points on the board.

Last week the Boilermakers fell 21-16 at Michigan, one week after falling 27-24 at home to Rutgers. Ryan Browne was an efficient 19 of 24 for 133 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, while Antonio Harris ran for 54 yards and a touchdown.

The Buckeyes won this game 45-0 at home last year and I'm expecting the visitors to put up similar offensive numbers in this season's matchup as well.

Julian Sayin was 20 of 23 for 316 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions for the Buckeyes in last week's 38-14 home win over Penn State.

If the Boilermakers are going to somehow pull off an upset, they're going to have to keep pace with the Buckeyes, who have outscored the Boilermakers by 107 points over their last three matchups.

With each side pushing the pace like I believe it will from start to finish, I see this total flying well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an AAC TOW on the UNDER Tulane/Memphis

Memphis is 8-1 after back-to-back victories, with both of those games going OVER the posted number, but I'm expecting more of a defensive battle here at home against 6-2 Tulane.

The Green Wave beat Army 24-17 in Week 8 to move to 6-1, and then they had their bye week.

Then Tulane came out and lost 48-26 at UTSA as a 5.5-point favorite last weekend. Previous to that "brain fart" though the Green Wave had played to three straight UNDERS.

Memphis is looking to win the Conference, and Tulane will be looking to pull off the upset.

Either way, I expect a competitive battle to end in a lower-scoring combined outcome. The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Kent State/Ball State.

Both teams are 3-5, and each team only has four games remaining to become eligible. 

Kent State is 0-4 straight-up on the road this year and 2-2 against the spread, while Ball State is 3-0 SU and ATS at home.

When these teams played at Kent State last year, the Cardinals came out on top by a score of 37-35, unable to cover the three-point spread. 

While I don't think we'll see 72 combined points this season, because of the circumstances that each side finds itself in coming into this one, combined with a few other situational factors, and despite not playing to many high-scoring affairs of late, I believe this O/U line is way too low, and I look for these teams to easily eclipse the posted number well before the final whistle sounds.

Kent State has been trading wins/losses over its last four games and off a 24-21 win over Bowling Green at home as a 7.5-point underdog last time out, the Golden Flashes will be hoping that pattern doesn't continue today. 

Bowling Green is terrible, though. In its loss at home to Central Michigan the week before, they lost 27-6, and in their following contest against Buffalo, the Green Falcons lost 28-3 as 3-point favorites.

The fact that Kent State allowed Bowling Green to score 21 points says a lot about the Flashes' defense, I think.

Dru DeShields did more than enough for the Flashes under center as well, going 13 of 22 for 160 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. One other player to keep your eyes on today for Kent State is Gavin Garcia, who rushed six times for 53 yards, including a long of 45 and one touchdown.

Ball State has been trading wins and losses though for seven straight games, and the Cardinals WILL be hoping that that pattern continues after a 21-7 loss at Northern Illinois last time out.

The game, previous to that, here at home, though Ball State destroyed Akron 42-28 as a two-point underdog.

With tough road games at Toledo and Miami Ohio, to close out the season, these next two games at home for Ball State are critical, with a favorable home matchup against Eastern Michigan next week.

I expect Ball State quarterback Kiael Kelly, who was 10 of 23 for 136 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in last week's loss, to settle down and return to form. Note that he also added 86 rushing yards in the loss to NIU as well.

I see two motivated teams pushing the pace from start to finish on Wednesday night, and because of that, this becomes my MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MAC GOM on Ohio on the moneyline.

You may not know this, but this is in fact the oldest football rivalry in the state of Ohio, with the Miami Ohio RedHawks on the road to take on the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday night.

It's time for the Battle of the Bricks, a matchup that features two of the conference's most dynamic, dual-threat quarterbacks. 

The RedHawks are led by quarterback DeQuan Finn, who has averaged over 60 yards per game rushing in five straight games.

Ohio ranks 85th in the FBS against the run. 

Parker Navarro and the Bobcats, though, have more than a few different situational factors working in their favor today. 

They're undefeated at Peden Stadium this year, and they've won three of the past five in this series. 

Navarro has rushed for 59 or more yards in four of his past five games, but the Bobcats' potent rush attack is led by Sieh Bangura, who has five touchdowns over his last two games and nine so far on the season.

Finn has actually gotten stronger all around as the season has worn on, though, as he's posted three touchdowns on the ground over his last two games.

Both teams are 5-3, needing one more win to become Bowl-eligible. 

The RedHawks are off five straight wins and covers, but after back-to-back home victories, a letdown finally feels imminent here against the 5-3 Bobcats, who have won two in a row and four of their last five.

All things being equal, I say that the home-field advantage will prove to be a big deciding factor for the Bobcats as well tonight.

I like this pick, one of two ways, depending on your risk tolerance. I like OHIO against the spread, but I also like the BOBCATS on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% ACC GOM on NC State.

I really like the way this one sets up for the home side. Outright win? Anything is possible, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Georgia Tech has exceeded expectations this year, entering this contest with a target on its back with a perfect 8-0 record. 

The NC State Wolfpack would love to be the first ones to give the Yellow Jackets a loss this season, but the more pressing matter is that they're running out of time to become bowl eligible at 4-4.

Both teams have their bye next week as well.

NC State plays at Miami after that and will be a sizeable dog, but then it closes the season with winnable home games against Florida State and North Carolina.

Still, NC State would rather leave nothing to chance, and the Wolfpack will surely see this game vs. the overachieving visiting side as a "winnable" game as well.

Situationally, I think this one definitely favors the home side, as the Yellow Jackets could come in complacent and get caught looking ahead to their bye week.

It's not a "do or die" game here for NC State, but it almost is. Both Florida State and North Carolina could be searching for their sixth win as well when they meet at the end of the season, and so, as I said, clearly the Wolfpack will not want to leave anything to chance here.

The Wolfpack will be happy to be home after two rough road games, falling 36-7 at Notre Dame, before last week's 53-34 loss at Pittsburgh. 

Georgia Tech has won and covered in three straight, and nearly 75% of the early money and bets are on the visiting side here, so that appeals to my contrarian side as well.

Last year, Georgia Tech won this game 30-29 at home as a 7.5-point favorite. 

I think we're in store for another "nail-biter" here as well in 2025 in Raleigh.

While I do think the outright win is a very real possibility, my official call is to grab the points with NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a SPECIAL on the UNDER Memphis/Rics.

Rice is 4-4 and looking for two more wins after breaking a three-game slide with a 37-34 OT win over UConn as a ten-point dog last time out.

The Owls lost this game 27-20 last year, and the total stayed UNDER the number, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

Rice is going to be a big dog in its remaining four games, so it's going to have to pull off a couple more big upsets to become eligible.

Memphis is 7-1 and has bigger aspirations about winning the conference.

Don't expect a shootout here, with each team electing to run first while on offense throughout.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a CONFERENCE USA TOW on the OVER FIU/Missouri State.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a "shootout," rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle, and because of that, my play is on the OVER.

Both teams need wins over the final half of the season to become bowl eligible, as FIU is 3-4 overall, including 1-2 on the road, while Missouri State is 4-3 overall, including only 1-2 at home.

Since their 73-13 loss at USC in Week 1, the Missouri State Bears enter having played to six straight UNDERS.

That includes their last two victories, including last week's 24-17 OT victory at New Mexico State. 

They won't be favored in too many spots over the rest of the schedule, though, but a bowl berth is definitely in reach of the Bears after their recent turnaround.

FIU has been trading wins and losses since Week 1, and off a 45-26 home setback to Kennesaw State last week, the Golden Panthers will be hoping this pattern continues.

Either way, as I stated earlier, it's a really big game for both sides, and in my opinion, I'm expecting each to put plenty of points on the board.

In the Bears' most recent win, quarterback Jacob Clark was sharp with 283 yards and 28 of 44 passing with three touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions, so FIU's defense will have its opportunities to set up its offense on Wednesday as well. One other offensive stand-out for Missouri State last week was running back Shomari Lawrence, who had 97 yards on 21 carries. 

And despite the loss to the Owls last time out, Florida International quarterback Keyone Jenkins posted 296 passing yards on 22 of 36 passing with one touchdown and no interceptions. Running back Kejon Owens was also a standout offensively, running 20 times for 166 yards and a touchdown.

These teams are evenly matched, and each is going to believe it can win. Look for this extreme sense of competition to lead to a higher-scoring final combined outcome.

This number is low in my opinion, so the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a SUN-BELT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas State.

From a situational standpoint, I love the way this one sets up for the hungry and more desperate home side.

JMU is now 6-1 after its 63-37 demolition of ODU last time out. Clearly, the Dukes now have their sights  set on winning the conference, but a sixth victory makes them bowl-eligible now, and a slight letdown wouldn't be unheard of, obviously, in this spot. 

With a more high-profile game at Marshall next week, not only does it set up as a bit of a natural "letdown" spot for James Madison, but also a small "look-ahead" position as well.

And when you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAM!" 

The oddsmakers certainly are trying to trap the majority, I think, as nearly 75 percent of the bets and money are on the visiting side.

Texas State is now 3-4 after three straight SU losses and five straight ATS setbacks. 

It hasn't been for a lack of trying, though, falling 31-30 at Arkansas State, before a 48-41 OT loss at home to Tory, which was before its most recent 40-37 OT loss at Marshall.

The Bobcats are running out of time to punch their sixth win, but they'll have an opportunity to do it with a few favorable matchups coming up.

They've been unable to cover as a favorite of late, but now they're the hungry dog here at home, and I think they're completely undervalued considering the circumstances.

The Dukes like to run the ball, averaging 243.7 yards per game. Overall, they've averaged 32.3 PPG, while allowing 15.6. JMU is led by QB Alonza Barnett III, who has nine touchdowns and two interceptions. 

In the loss to Marshall, Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson threw for 444 yards and two touchdowns, and he also rushed for 48 yards and another touchdown on the ground. 

The Bobcats will have no problem keeping pace offensively with JMU, coming in averaging 36.1 PPG. The defense has been the weak point, obviously, so far conceding 31.3.

Texas state has, in fact, been decent in defending the run, though, ranked 97th in the country.

Jackson, though, has nine touchdowns and only two interceptions through the air, with another eight rushing touchdowns as well. 

Jackson's true dual-threat capabilities will be difficult for JMU to slow down today.

The Dukes have the huge advantage defensively, but we can expect the Dukes to clean up mistakes and remain competitive throughout.

At least, that's how I personally see this one unfolding.

I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, but I do think that JMU comes in a tiny bit complacent, and I then expect the desperate home side to fight tooth and nail and keep it close until the final moments.

Grab the points, the play is on TEXAS STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a SITUATIONAL BAIL-OUT on Utah.

I think this one sets up well for the hungry home side as I look for the Utes to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Utah is 5-2 SU, including 2-1 SU at home. The Utes are also 2-1 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season.

Colorado is 3-4, including 0-2 SU and ATS on the road.

Utah lost 49-24 at Colorado last year as a 13.5-point underdog, and now the tables are turned and the revenge-minded home side won't have forgotten that throttling. With tough upcoming games against Cincinnati, at Baylor, against K-State and @ Kansas, this might be the only spot in which Utah is favored again for the rest of the season. Here is a prime opportunity for the Utes to punch their eligibility ticket.

Colorado will be a dog in the rest of its games. Off the 24-17 home win over Iowa State as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago, I think a letdown is now imminent here on the road in this difficult venue.

Utah though is off the tight 24-21 loss to BYU, and QB Devon Dampier, who had 244 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, will be looking to take out his frustrations on someone. And that someone is clearly the Buffs! Dampier also carried the ball for 64 yards. 

Situationally, I love the way this one sets up for the Utes. 

Kaidon Salter was an efficient 16 for 25 for 255 yards and two touchdowns in the Buffs latest win. 

I think Colorado still possesses a lot of individual talent, but Utah has a clear edge here now at home. 

In the end guys I think that Dampier will make enough plays, both with his arms and legs, and the Utes' defense will do more than enough to slow down Salter, for the home side to easily cover this larger spread.

The play is on UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG 12 GOM on Arizona State.

It's a big matchup between Big 12 teams at the top of the leaderboard, with Houston coming to Arizona State after a last-second 31-28 FG win over Arizona at home last weekend to move to 6-1. 

Arizona State is 5-2 overall after holding on for a 26-22 home win over Texas tech as 7.5-point dogs last weekend. The Sun Devils are defending Big 12 Conference Champions and they got 319 yards and a touchdown from Sam Leavitt in the upset victory. 

Houston QB Conner Weigman made three touchdown passes in their win over Arizona, but I believe he'll have a much harder time moving the ball as effectively in this difficult road venue.

Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham was able to help his team earn a playoff berth and it's brought back excitement to this Sun Devils' football program.

The stakes are equally as high for Houston coach Willie Fritz. Both programs still are in a fight for the Conference Championship and a spot in the Playoff.

If we look a little closer at Weigman's performance from last week though we discover that it wasn't quite as dominant as his stat lines first appear, as he finished with only 164 yards through the air. He also rushed for 98 yards and a TD as well.

Leavitt is going to be calm and under control I think here at home, while Weigman is going to have his hands full, both with the difficult environment, but also this difficult defense which just held the-then No. 7 team in the nation to just 22 points.

Arizona State takes this one personally I think. While it does have bigger plans in store for the rest of the season, it'll become bowl-eligible with a victory here, while it wouldn't be a shock to see the Cougars finally have a small mental lapse after posting their sixth win of the season last week.

I see ASU keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish, so I'm laying the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a CONFERENCE-USA GOW on Delaware.

The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are just 1-5 and 0-fer in Conference-USA play thus far. It's the second of three consecutive midweek conference games for the Blue Raiders, who are coming off a heartbreaking 22-20 loss to Missouri State on October 7th.

I don't think that the bye-week will help the Blue Raiders this weekend, as they're likely to be big dogs the rest of the way and essentially need to run the board to earn eligibility.

Delaware's path to a bowl is a bit more manageable, sitting at 3-3. The Fightin' Blue Hens are off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, which include a 38-25 loss at Jacksonville State as 3-point favorites last week.  

Despite the loss last weekend, though, Delaware has held its own in its first year in the FBS, which includes a quality Conference USA victory over FIU. The Blue Hens were also extremely competitive in their 27-24 loss to league power Western Kentucky.

Middle Tennessee has been competitive as well, but has failed to deliver a big play at the end of the game to get the decision. 

And that's not going to be any easier this weekend, facing a motivated Delaware side that's already 2-1 in front of the home-town crowd, with that tight loss to Western Kentucky being the only blemish.

The Blue Hens have been impressive, though in their first year, scoring and allowing 28 points a game, averaging 433 yards and conceding 408. 

Nick Minicucci has been superb under center so far for the Blue Hens, passing for 1,794 yards and nine touchdowns to just three interceptions.

Middle Tennessee State, though, is averaging just 17 points per game, while conceding 29.5. 

Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has thrown for 1,392 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. 

The Blue Raiders are poor defensively, and they're bad against the pass. Right now, the Blue Hens have one of the best passing attacks in the country. 

MTSU is completely one-dimensional on offense, as it has one of the worst run games in the country. 

I don't see the Blue Raiders putting up a big push in the second half of the season and think their last loss was the final nail in the coffin for this team's fragile collective psyche.

Delaware, though, is the talk of the conference and is filled with confidence. I think the Blue Hens' superior passing game will be too much for the Blue Raiders to keep up with down the stretch.

Lay the points with DELAWARE.

Good luck, NP

This is a CONFERENCE-USA TOW on the OVER WKU/LT.

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a short week being detrimental to these defenses and I look for these underachieving offenses to finally put some points on the board.

It's an important game for both teams as far as their current records and needing a few more for eligibility, as WKU is now 5-2 after a surprising 25-6 loss at home to FIU last week. Note that looking back WKU has seen the total go OVER in six of its last eight off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

But now its the slight dog on the road here against a 4-2 Louisiana Tech side that's off a brutal loss as well, falling 35-7 at Kennesaw State as 4.5-point dogs.

What Louisiana Tech does have going for it here though is that it's had a week off to regroup, as note that in three previous wins it combined for 109 points.

With each side pushing the pace like I believe it will be after their previous disastrous outings, everything in my opinion points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an SEC TOY on the OVER Missouri/Auburn.

I really like this play, as a situational capper this one really peaked my interest.

The public is quick to back another low-scoring game, as Auburn has seen the total go UNDER in five straight.

And on the other side of the field, Missouri has seen it go UNDER in back-to-back games after starting the year playing to four straight OVERS.

These two offenses are vastly underrated though and considering the circumstances, I'm expecting a quicker tempo to lead to more points.

This number is low in my opinion, so the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MOUNTAIN-WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER SJSU/Utah State.

As being primarily a situational capper, I LOVE the way this one sets up to finally be more of a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

A quick look at the stats shows San Jose State sitting 2-4 overall, including 0-3 on the road. The Spartans enter having seen the total go OVER in four straight, after seeing their first two games go UNDER the number.

They haven't played Utah State since 2023, and they won that game at home by a score of 42-21, and the total stayed UNDER the posted number of 64 in that one. 

Utah State is 3-3, including 3-0 at home. The Aggies have seen the total go 4-2 to the OVER, including in their last two, most recently a 44-26 loss at Hawaii.

But in their last home game here, they destroyed McNeese State by a score of 48-7. The Aggies' defense was outmatched on the road at Vanderbilt and against the run-and-gun Warriors, but they catch a break here facing the inconsistent Spartans. I think we'll see a much better defensive performance at home this week for Utah State, as it now looks to earn three more wins and eligibility.

And then a quick look at their schedules sees a possible "look-ahead" spot happening for the visitors with their bye-week on deck, while Utah State will have another "winnable," but still difficult road game at New Mexico next week. 

Both teams are coming off losses and are desperate for a win. That'll mean cleaning things up and protecting the ball. 

Overall, the Spartans average 24 points per game, led by Walker Eget, who has 1,813 yards passing and a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Defensively, San Jose State concedes 29.2 points per game.

On the other side of the field, the Aggies average 34.7 PPG, while allowing 32.7. Quarterback Bryson Barnes has thrown for 1,318 yards and owns a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Both teams are dealing with injury issues. The Spartans definitely have issues at running back, but they don't really run the ball anyway.

When looking at just their numbers on paper, it would be almost impossible not to think that Friday's game was also destined to blast past the posted number, but when you take into account the overall "situation" that each team finds itself coming into this one, I think that all of the situational factors point to a much more defensive battle between two teams desperate for a victory.

In my opinion, this number is way too high, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an AAC TOM on the OVER Tulsa/ECU.

A big game for both teams and I'm expecting a wide-open, back-and-forth contest, dominated by the home side, to fly well OVER the number before it's all said and done.

ECU has seen the total go UNDER in four straight, but off a 26-19 loss at Tulane, look for the Pirates to push the pace in this favorable matchup.

I don't see Tulsa slowing down the Pirates, but I do see the visitors being competitive over the first half.

This number is low in my opinion, so the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a CFB PROFIT-WINNER on Jacksonville State.

Delaware is 3-2 after a 27-24 loss to Western Kentucky as a 2.5-point favorite at home, and now the Fightin' Blue Hens are 2.5-point favorites on the road and possibly "rusty" out of their bye-week against a 3-3 Jacksonville State team that's off a 29-27 win at Sam Houston State last week. The Gamecocks didn't cover the 7-point spread, but they'll be looking to build upon a solid victory nonetheless and to get one win closer to eligibility.

This is, in fact, the first matchup between the teams as members of the Conference USA. 

Delaware faded in the second half last week, getting outscored 17-7.  

The Blue Hens are led by junior quarterback Nick Minicucci, who so far has thrown for 1,3798 yards, eight touchdowns, and three picks. But he's also rushed for seven major scores as well.

Overall, Delaware is averaging 29.6 points per game, while allowing 425.8. The defense has been "ok," giving up 26.4 points per game and 393.8 total yards. 

It's Jacksonville State, though, which is undervalued in this matchup in my opinion, as it enters 2-0 so far in conference play.

Last week, the Gamecocks outgained SHSU 499-286 in total yards, exploding for 370 rushing yards. 

Last week, the Gamecocks went with dual-threat quarterback Caden Creel, who has a 67.6 percent completion percentage so far and who has 381 rushing yards and three more scores. 

Overall, Jacksonville State is averaging 29.5 points per game and 421.3 total yards, while allowing 26.8. 

I'm looking at the schedules, I'm looking at what each team has done to this point, I'm looking at the overall situation, and I'm really wondering if  Delaware is the favorite in this spot?

I like Creel at home; he's going to be difficult for the Blue Hens to handle with his dual-threat capabilities. 

The Blue Hens rely on the passing game primarily for their offense, but the Gamecocks' strength on the defensive side is defending the pass, so far conceding 211 yards per game.

Delaware stumbled in its last outing, letting a win slip out of its hands. It shouldn't be favored here in this spot.

While I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with JACKSONVILLE STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a CONFERENCE USA TOW on the OVER New Mexico State/Liberty.

Liberty is 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS as well after a 19-8 win at UTEP last time out.

The Flames have seen the total go UNDER in four straight now, but I'm finally expecting the home side to push the pace and open things up here against a team it's had plenty of success against in the past. 

Liberty is a massive favorite in this spot, so I'm steering clear of the total, but I'm expecting these teams to AT LEAST reach the same points total that they combined for in the Flames' 30-24 victory last season. 

With nearly 70% of the bets/money on the underdog, most are expecting this to once again be a competitive battle.

New Mexico State is 3-2, and the Aggies are coming off an impressive 37-10 win at home over Sam Houston State as 2-point underdogs. With two weeks off to prepare for this one, I don't see any reason not to think that the Aggies won't carry that offensive momentum over here as well.

Quarterback Logan Fife threw for 259 yards and a touchdown, while also adding a rushing score. 

Fife has been great so far, throwing for 1,272 yards and seven TDs, and he's had to be good, as the defense hasn't been fantastic, allowing 398.6 total yards per game. 

This is a big game for the visiting side after posting three wins already, needing only three more to become eligible. 

But as mentioned, it's the home side that's the huge favorite here, led by quarterback Ethan Vasko, who has thrown for 1,006 yards and six touchdowns while adding 142 rushing yards and two scores.

The Flames desperately need a big offensive performance, and here's the opponent to finally have it against. 

New Mexico State will be looking to open things up and push its offense through the air. But with the confidence-building win over UTEP, Vasko and the home side are now finally poised for a decent performance, in my opinion. 

Yes, it's tempting to assume that this will once again be a very tight, and lower-scoring outcome after looking at the results from each side over the last few weeks, but these are exactly the types of scenarios I'm always on the lookout for during the course of the regular season.

Both teams are hungry for a win, and there's been an overreaction on this O/U line after each has played too many lower-scoring outcomes recently.

But the value has now firmly swung the other way in my opinion, as everything points to them AT LEAST matching their combined offensive output from last year.

This number is low, so the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP 

This is a SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Arkansas/Tennessee.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring one.

Although, this game can still feature a ton of offense and stay below this sky-high Over/Under number.

The Arkansas Razorbacks enter 3-2 overall this year, while the Tennessee Volunteers enter 4-1 overall and 2-1 at home.

The Vols have seen the total go OVER the number in all five of their games after their most recent 41-34 OT victory at Mississippi State two weeks ago, while Arkansas has seen the total go OVER in four of its five games, including in four straight.

When these teams played last year, The Razorbacks won 19-14 as 14-point underdogs on October 5th, 2024, and while I do think we'll see a bit more scoring this time around, I'm once again expecting there total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Arkansas most recently fell 56-13 to Notre Dame. Their quarterback Taylen Green has 1,398 passing yards with 12 touchdowns so far, along with 441 rushing yards and two more scores. 

But the Razorbacks have struggled with offensive consistency this season, especially on the road where they're 0-3. 

Joey Aguilar has 1,459 passing yards and 13 touchdowns for the Vols and while Tennessee's defense has been its weak point, that unit catches a break here facing the Razorbacks at home.

With a game at Alabama next week, I'm also expecting the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half as it looks ahead to that much more high-profile contest.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana.

My football picks in both College and the NFL have gotten sharper over the last couple of weeks, as I finally have some data to use from the previous weeks. I'm primarily a situational capper, and I primarily rely on data from the previous game, and or games before, looking at situational factors like scheduling and revenge, while also keeping my eyes open for lop-sided winning or losing streaks, both straight and against the spread winning and losing streaks.

Either way, as being an aforementioned situational capper for the most part, I do definitely love the way this one sets up for the visiting side.

Both teams enter this game at Autzen Stadium 5-0, with Indiana 3-2 ATS, and Oregon 3-1-1 ATS. 

The only time the Ducks didn't cover was a 34-14 win at Northwestern as 26.5-point favorites back in Week 3, but they've been off since a big 30-24 OT win at Penn State as 3.5-point underdogs and I feel a letdown is in order here.

The Hoosiers' offense is out of control. And the defense has been great as well. Indiana's competition has been weak so far, but it still crushed Illinois 63-10 in Week 4 as a 7-point favorite, before its hard-fought 20-15 victory at Iowa as a 9-point favorite.

Don't you now think that Oregon's win over Penn State looks incredibly unimpressive after the Nittany Lions just lost to UCLA last week?

The Hoosiers have the offense to keep pace with Dante Moore and the home side in my opinion. 

Indiana has a rush stuff rate of 33%, so it will be tough for the Ducks to put together successful drives consistently.

Both defenses rank in the Top in the quality drive rate allowed and available yards allowed as well. 

I don't see either team running away with this one. I see it being very competitive and back and forth.

Because of that, I'm grabbing the points with INDIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rutgers/Washington.

Just a great situational play here in my opinion. Washington has been tough defensively, especially at home and for a few different reasons I'm expecting this contest between Rutgers and Washington to be much lower-scoring than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Huskies also won't be forgetting last year's upset loss at Rutgers, as they'll look to control the tempo of pace this season at Husky Stadium. Washington is a big favorite, and it has a big game on deck at Michigan up next.

The road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Scarlet Knights either, as they'll have to immediately start preparing for Oregon at home next weekend.

Washington lone loss was a 24-6 setback to Ohio State, a loss in which the defense still shone. 

The Scarlet Knights rolled through their non-conference schedule, but they've been completely outmatched the last two weeks, losing to Iowa and Minnesota. 

Athan Kaliakmanis and the visiting side are coming off their bye week, but I think that rest will lead to rust. 

Washington averages 446.4 yards per game and its dual threat QB Demond Williams Jr., who has completed 73.3 percent of his passes for 1,226 passing yards and eight touchdowns, but he's also rushed for 246 yards and two more scores on the ground.

The Huskies ground game is extremely effective as well this season, led by Jonah Coleman, who has 474 rushing yards and ten touchdowns.

Overall the Huskies allow 205.6 passing yards per game, and I think they'll shut down Kaliakmanis. Overall they're allowing just 283.6 yards per game.

I don't see Rutgers putting up many points, and I don't see Washington looking to run up the score either.

Everything points to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF WEEK on the UNDER MSU/Nebraska.

Both teams enter 3-1 and each has played to three straight OVERS.

I'm finally anticipating much more of a defensive battle between these Big 10 rivals on Saturday afternoon, though.

Michigan won this game 20-17 at home last November, and a similar final combined outcomes is imminent as well in my opinion, as note that the Huskers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Look for field position to play a big part in the outcome of this one, and as such, expect this total to stay well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOW on the UNDER UVA/Louisville.

Virginia is 4-1 and Louisville is 4-0.

The Cavaliers are 4-0 at home and 0-1 on the road. That one loss was a 35-31 setback at NC State in Week 2. So far, all five of the Cavaliers' games have flown well OVER the total, but now I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

Last week, the Cavs upset Florida State 46-38 in double overtime as seven-point underdogs. 

And with its bye week up after this, this sets up as a bit of a "trap" game, I think, for the visitors. They're off three straight wins, including the double overtime victory as an underdog against previously-unbeaten Florida State, and now they hit the road as a big dog once again, but with a much-needed break on the horizon.

While I lean toward Louisville here, I'm unable to lay this larger spread. 

The Cardinals are off the 34-27 win at Pittsburgh, and while they've faced some pretty weak competition to this point, their defense has still been sharp overall. 

Situationally speaking, though, the Cardinals are also in a bit of a "trap"  as far as their scheduling is concerned, off the big road win at Pittsburgh and with their "bye week" as well before a massive game at Miami on the 17th.

These teams have both been involved in several high-scoring games so far. As mentioned, the Cavaliers have seen the total fly OVER in all five of their games during their 4-1 start.

And as also mentioned, I think the value has now swung the other way, finally, as far as the total is concerned.

This number is high in my opinion, so the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ATS ROUT on Baylor.

Baylor is 3-2 and K-State is 2-3.

The Bears are off a 45-27 win at Oklahoma state, while K-state pulled away for a 34-20 win and cover over Central Florida at home.

The Bears 18-point win over the Cowboys is not as impressive as it should have been, as the Cowboys ranked near the bottom of the FBS in scoring. For some reason the Bears let Oklahoma State stick around a little too long instead of laying the hammer down.

But the Bears have seemed overall to have gotten progressively better with each game, especially their run game which is led by Bryson Washington, who averages 6.4 yards per carry in each of his last three games. 

Kansas State has so far struggled to stop the run, so I think the Wildcats are going to be in trouble her eon the road. 

Last weekend Baylor set a new season-high with 225-plus yards between their two running backs.

Avery Johnson has not lived up to expectations for K-State yet this season. He was a dark-horse for many to win the Heisman Trophy.

Baylor's pass defense has been a weak point this year, but that unit catches a huge break facing Kansas State offense that has struggled with consistency this season

And so with the defense catching a break, we know that this offense behind Sawyer Robertson can put points on the board quick fast in a hurry.

K-State lost its only road game, a 23-17 loss at Arizona as a 1.5-point favorite in Week 3, and I think Johnson and company will once again struggle away from friendly confines.

With a home game against TCU up next weekend, the visitors certainly don't catch a break in their schedule.

I think that home field is a big advantage here for the Bears and I look for their high-powered offense to be just too much for the Wildcats to hang with in the end.

Lay the points, the play is on BAYLOR.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER CSU/SDSU.

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This number is just a bit TOO low now in my opinion. 

CSU is 1-3 and SDSU is 3-1. 

The Aztecs are coming off a 34-0 win over Cal and a 6-3 victory over NIU. Which offense will show up here at home against CSU? I say the former, with the Rams now desperate to snap a two-game slide, including last week's 20-3 home loss to Washington State as 5.5-point favs. But that's significant to note, as CSU has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after a home loss in which it was held to a field goal or less as the favorite.

This number is low, the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GOW on Sam Houston State.

Sam Houston State has been an underdog in all four of its games to open the year, and it's 0-4 SU/ATS. But now its favored and I like the Bearkats to "get off the schneid."

They Bearkats beat New Mexico State 31-11 at home last year. The Aggies started off decently, but have since lost back-to-back road contests at Louisiana Tech and New Mexico. 

The path to this point has been a difficult one for Sam Houston State, but I'm expecting a similar blowout in this matchup like last season.

Look for New Mexico State to continue to struggle on both ends of the field.

I'm laying the reasonable price and taking SHSU on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on Colorado.

An outright win is a very real possibility for the underdog home side in this one in my opinion, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Buffs.

Colorado is 2-2 with wins over two non-Power Four opponents in Delaware and Wyoming, with losses coming to Georgia Tech (which is now ranked), and the 3-0 Houston Cougars. 

Both teams enter this matchup off victories, with BYU beating East Carolina on the road, and Colorado taking care of Wyoming.

Colorado has plenty of motivation here to avenge an Alamo Bowl loss to BYU, and while Deion Sanders may act as if that doesn't matter now with an essentially an entirely new team, those factors still do matter.

BYU though will face a Colorado team that's prepared to play in this one after starting the season against far superior competition. 

I also think this Colorado defense is underrated at home, and I expect it to confuse true freshman Bear Bachmeier and force him into some bad decisions.

I see this one being highly competitive, and that's why I'm grabbing the points with COLORADO.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on Penn State.

This may very well be the biggest Football game so far this College Football season. It's a big game for two teams with College Playoff aspirations and National Championship dreams.

This is a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten Championship, and the winner of this game on Saturday will punch its ticket to this year's College Football Championship.

And the loser will also likely be more than fine and will still be able to advance to the CFP. That said, I don't think you can underestimate that home-field advantage for the Nittany Lions here on Saturday night.

As primarily a situational capper, I'm looking directly at each team's schedule and what I'm seeing is that this one simply will mean A LOT more to the home side, with back-to-back contests against Iowa and Ohio State on the horizon.

Oregon is rolling along, but looking ahead it doesn't have to face either the Buckeyes or Michigan.

The Ducks do have difficult upcoming matchups against Indiana and USC, but both of those are at home.

Oregon QB Dante Moore has yet to face any pressure this season, but will now face a difficult task here on the road.

Drew Allar and the home side have a big opportunity to cement their spot here and now and I think they're for the task, so the first play in my three-game CFB report this weekend is on PENN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on Alabama/Georgia UNDER.

Sanford Stadium is a place where the Bulldogs typically win, and while they're once again favored to win over the Crimson Tide, everything points to an extremely competitive battle.

That said, Kalen DeBoer and the Tide don't have the best road record.

With a spread like this, clearly, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched, and for the most part, they really are.

So that's why I'm steering clear of the side and instead focusing on the total, and in what I foresee to be a very competitive, lower-scoring battle, I'm going to be recommending a play on the UNDER in this one.

Ty Simpson and the Tide have history against them, as Georgia enters having its own 33 consecutive in Athens across six different seasons.

Gunner Stockton leads the Georgia offense, but the Bulldogs are committed to re-establishing the run as well this season after finishing 11th in the SEC and tied for 84th nationally with just 4.06 yards per carry on average last year. This was their lowest output since 2011.

But that's how I see this one playing out, with each team protecting the ball and trying to limit mistakes, while using the ground game to set up the offense.

Most are likely expecting a high-scoring game, but I'm going against the grain here and expect a much lower-scoring final outcome in this one, so I'm taking the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOY on the UNDER FSU/UVA.

Florida State is coming off a big upset win over Alabama, and then back-to-back "cream puff" victories over East Texas A&M and Kent State.

FSU is 3-0 SU/ATS and it's seen the total go 3-0 to the over.

Now hitting the road for the first time, and also playing their first conference contest, I'm expecting things to tighten up on the defensive end for each of these teams.

UVA is 3-1 and it's coming off a 48-20 win over Stanford. The Cavaliers have also seen the total go over in all four of their games.

These teams combined for just 55 points here though in last year's matchup, with the Seminoles allowing 21 points in the fourth quarter.

FSU's improved defense in 2025 though is poised shutdown the home side attack though in my opinion on Friday night.

I see another competitive battle like last season, but expect the final combined outcome to be even lower.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Army.

ECU is 2-2 and Army is 1-2. The Pirates are off a 34-13 loss to BYU, while the Black Knights dropped a tight one to North Texas by a score of 45-38.

ECU QB Katin Houser struggled last week, going 25 of 42 for 285 yards, zero TDs and two INTs. 

Conversely, Army QB Dewayne Coleman was an efficient 6 of 11 for 101 yards passing, two TDs and zero INTs. He also rushed 117 yards and a TD.

I think Coleman's dual threat capabilities will expose further this already exposed ECU defensive front.

I think an outright is possible, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with ARMY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on San Diego State.

Cal is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after pulling way for a 27-14 home win over Minnesota last weekend as a three-point dog. 

With their first true conference road game up after this against what should be a desperate Boston College team, could the Golden Bears be caught "looking ahead" to that one and directly past the 1-1 San Diego State Aztecs?

Very possibly in my estimation!

The Aztecs destroyed Stony Brook 42-0 here in Week 1, but then they lost 36-13 at Washington State in Week 2. With a week off since that disappointment and now back at home, I like the Aztecs to be a lot more competitive and to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door.

For me it's just a great situational play; grab as many points as you can with SDSU!

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on the UNDER Washington/Washington State.

This total opened at 49.5 and it's since been bet up. Now I think it's too high. I liked the "under" as well at 49.5. Either way, I do indeed like the UNDER in this one!

The Huskies are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Both games have flown well over the numbers, as they beat Colorado State 38-21 as 23-point favorites in their first game and then hammered UC Davis 70-10 in Week 2.

Now they're hitting the road for the first time this year and facing a real team for the first time.

Washington State is 2-1, as last week it fell 59-10 at North Texas as a 7-point underdog. Clearly, that one got away from the Cougars.

But now I think there's a bit of an overreaction here, both in terms of the spread, but more so about the total. This number is now too high.

In their last meeting last season, Washington State won 24-14. I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well. 

Washington QB Demond Williams has been decent with two touchdown passes and no INT's. Of course, the offense for the Huskies runs through RB Jonah Coleman, who has rushed for 110 yards in each game so far.

Cougars' QB Jaxon Potter has a pedestrian 4:3 TD:INT so far. All three came in last week's loss.

It was Washington State that got caught looking ahead, but I'm expecting each team to come out focussed here in the Apple Cup. 

While both sides have been involved in several higher-scoring affair to open the season, I say the conditions are now definitely right for a much lower-scoring defensive battle.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on Duke on the moneyline.

This game is on Saturday September 20th at 4:00 Eastern. 

NC State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. It's coming off a 34-24 win and cover as a 4-point favorite at Wake Forest.

Duke is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Blue Devils are off a 34-27 loss at Tulane as 1-point underdogs. With difficult upcoming road games at Syracuse and Cal after this, this essentially becomes a "must win" for Duke here, especially with Georgia Tech and Clemson after that.

The Blue Devils have a couple of "cream puff" matchups after this at home after this against Virginia Tech, which is currently 0-3, and then also against Campbell. 

So the big question is, will the Wolfpack come in complacent here and get caught napping or looking ahead?

Hard to imagine that happening, but situationally I'll argue until the cows come home that, clearly, the Blue Devils are the more motivated team in this matchup. 

NC State quarterback CJ Bailey 719 yards and a 5-to-1 TD to INT ratio. 

But I like Duke quarterback Darian Mensah at home in this matchup. Mensah has 1,036 passing yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. One other player to keep your eyes on for the home side is pass rusher Vincent Anthony Jr., who already has five sacks.

The bottom line with this one, I look for the hungrier and more desperate home side to find a way to get the job done. I'm laying the price on DUKE on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Notre Dame.

Just a great situational play on the desperate Irish in my opinion. Notre Dame is 0-2 SU/ATS, coming off a 27-24 loss at Miami as a three-point fav in Week 1, and then last week the Irish fell 41-40 at home to Texas A&M as 6-point favorites.

With some tough upcoming games on the horizon, the Irish are running out of time to impress anyone. But a blowout beatdown victory will go a long way in starting the healing process for the Notre Dame faithful.

The Irish annihilated the Boilermakers by a score of 66-7 in last year's matchup. Purdue is 2-1. It beat Ball State 31-0 and then Southern Illinois by a score of 34-17, before then falling 33-17 here at home to USC.

The Boilermakers' secondary was exposed by the Trojans, and I look for CJ Carr and company to take advantage.

The play is on NOTRE DAME.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOTAL PUNISHER on the UNDER Iowa/Rutgers.

It's the conference opener for each team and I think that points will be at a premium in this one.

Iowa is ready to take on Greg Schiano's Rutgers Scarlet Knights, coming off a 47-7 win over UMass last week, after falling to Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk rivalry game by a score of 16-13 in Week 2. 

Kirk Ferentz, though, became the winningest coach in Big Ten history with the win over UMass.

Rutgers enters 3-0 and is coming off a 60-10 win over Norfolk State. 

With a spread like this, clearly, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. I could write a convincing argument for either side to win, so I'm steering clear of a side, instead focussing on the total.

Iowa won this game 22-0 in 2023, and while I expect a few more points here, and for it to be much more competitive overall, everything points to a similar lower-scoring final outcome.

With both teams looking to establish the run throughout while on offense in the important conference opener, everything points to a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% AAC GOM on Charlotte.

The 49ers are 1-2 SU/ATS. They're coming off a 42-36 win as 2.5-point favorites vs. Monmouth. Charlotte has a week off before back-to-back difficult road games at USF and Army, making this an almost "must win" game for the home side.

It beat Rice 21-20 on the road in last year's matchup as a 4.5-point dog

The Owls are 2-1 SU/ATS. They're coming off a 38-17 win over Prairie View. With a game at Navy up next, I think the visitors get caught "looking ahead."

Look for the hungrier and more determined home side to find a way to get the job done, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with CHARLOTTE on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% CFB DOG OF THE MONTH on Stanford.

The Cardinal are big underdogs in their first home game and their first ACC matchup. 

Stanford is 0-2 after falling 23-20 at Hawaii and then 27-3 at BYU in Week 2. 

BC is off a 66-10 win over Fordham as a 35-point favorite in Week 1, before coming up just short in a 42-40 OT loss at Michigan State as 3.5-point dogs in Week 2.

With their bye week next weekend, followed by a home game vs. Cal, not only does this set up as a potential "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look-ahead." 

And when you add those two situational factors together (letdown + look-ahead), for me, that = "trap game." 

I think a great situational play here on STANFORD, which I expect to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large amount of points it's been afforded in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% MONEYLINE WEEKENDER on Georgia.

I would have liked to call this my SEC Game Of The Month, but because I didn't play the spread, I opted to include MONEYLINE in the title, just to be completely transparent.

I play underdogs. I play totals. I live bet, play first half plays, parlays, and just about everything else.

But I also play favorites. I'm not afraid to lay chalk when I think that my "play on" side is about to lay an absolute beatdown on its overmatched opponent. And that's the case here. I also like the Bulldogs against the spread, but, considering the reasonable moneyline option, think that this is the sharper move in the end.

Georgia is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS, while Tennessee is 2-0 SU and ATS.

It's interesting to note that the sixth-ranked Bulldogs were first favored by as many as seven points in this one, and it's now moved all the way down  to -3.5. 

There are some reasons behind that. 

Georgia's less-than-spectacular 28-6 win over FCS-level Austin Peay in Week 2. Although the backups did see some time. 

Tennessee hasn't played anyone of great note, but in the early going, their quarterback, Joey Aguilar, who just annihilated East Tennessee State 72-17, has outshone his counterpart to this point, and there's a lot of hype surrounding the Vols' pivot.

But is it warranted?

Georgia has won seven straight in this series, and the closest margin during that stretch was 14 points. 

Overall, the Bulldogs are 8-2 against the spread in the last ten in this series.

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton was among the pre-season Heisman favorites. One other factor contributing to the line move is that Stockton is making his first true road start of the season.

But to counter that, Georgia enters currently second in the SEC in total yards allowed and first in points allowed. 

I think it's Tennessee getting too much respect from the oddsmakers this weekend, as I look for Georgia's superior defense and its overall domination in this series to be the difference makers.

While I do like Georgia ATS, the official play is the BULLDOGS on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson.

It's a big early-season ACC showdown from Bobby Dodd Stadium on Saturday afternoon, and it's one that favors the visiting side in my opinion.

Clemson is 1-1, and it's clearly not the same team that it was last year. It lost 17-10 at home to LSU as a 5.5-point favorite, before then "bouncing back" with a lacklustre 27-16 win over Troy last week as a 30.5-point favorite. 

But here's the thing, while 2-0 to start the season, Georgia Tech hasn't looked great either, holding on for the 27-20 road win at Colorado late, and then, as expected, hammering FCS Gardner Webb 59-12. 

But Dabo Swinney's team was SUPPOSED to be a lot better heading into the 2025/26 season, or so most thought, as he returned more production than any other school in the nation.

So far, Cade Klubnik has looked extremely average under center for the Tigers. 

The Yellow Jackets have performed well in this spot for bettors in he past as well, and since Brent Key took over, they've got a number of really big wins. 

On September 3rd, the Tigers were favored by a touchdown, but now it's down to 3.5. And I think it's a great number to jump on Clemson and not give up on the Tigers quite yet.

They have experience on both sides of the ball, and also a ton of talent. They're also really well coached through every phase.

Haynes King is a true dual-threat, and he won't be easy to slow down, but the Tigers are stacked defensively and up to the task. They have multiple top-tier pass-rushers.

And I also don't think the Yellow Jackets will be able to slow down the Tigers' offense. Klubnik hasn't done much yet, but last year he posted 40 points or more on six different occasions.

Garrett Riley's offense is poised to post some production, and I think it'll be this week against a Yellow Jackets' defense that's done nothing to this point.

It's not easy winning in this building since Key took over, but I think the Tigers are more than up for the challenge.

I'm laying the points with CLEMSON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% BIG 12 GOY on Kansas State moneyline.

Kansas State 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS after falling 24-21 to Army at home last week as a 17-point favorite. 

After already losing to Iowa State in the opener 24-21 as a three-point favorite, it's really a pivotal moment in the season already for the Wildcats.

And that's why I really like them in this spot. With upcoming games against UCF, at Baylor, against TCU, at Kansas and at home against Texas Tech, the immediate and long-term road ahead does not get any easier whatsoever for Avery Johnson and the Wildcats, putting added pressure and importance onto pulling off the much more winnable conference road game here on Friday night.

Arizona is getting overhyped here. As primarily a situational capper, I love how this one sets up for K-State, because while 2-0 to open the season, the Wildcats have faced absolutely no one even worth mentioning, hammering Hawaii 40-6 at home, before a 48-3 drubbing of Weber State last weekend. 

Now on the road for their first road game, and conference outing of the season, a letdown absolutely feels imminent here for Noah Fifita and the visiting side.

A great "situational" play on KANSAS STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on Sam Houston State.

Sam Houston State is poised to cover with the spread, if not win outright, against Hawaii in my opinion. 

Despite their 0-2 start, the Bearkats rank 11th in passing (396 yards) and 9th in rushing (318 yards), showcasing offensive versatility. 

Their defense, with three sacks and one interception, can exploit Hawaii’s inconsistent offense, which struggles to run (57th, 166 yards) and relies heavily on passing. It's super one-dimensional.

Hawaii’s quarterback Micah Alejado’s injury concerns and backup Luke Weaver’s turnover issues further tilt the scales. 

Sam Houston’s balanced attack and defensive pressure will secure a close victory or keep the game within the spread. Grab the points, the play is on SAM HOUSTON STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% ANNIHILATOR on Iowa.

The oddsmakers expect a tight and competitive battle, and so do I!

Iowa has a legit shot to win outright over Iowa State tomorrow due to its dominant offensive line and strong ground game, which racked up 310 yards against Albany. 

Mark Gronowski’s dual-threat ability, despite a shaky passing debut, adds versatility that Iowa State’s defense struggled against last year. 

Iowa’s elite defense, led by Phil Parker, will disrupt Rocco Becht’s passing attack.

In what I expect to be another nail-biter Cy-Hawk game, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on IOWA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER JMU/Louisville.

In my opinion, due to defensive strengths and potential overreactions to Week 1 performances, everything points to a much lower-scoring final outcome than what this O/U line is suggesting. 

Both teams exceeded their Week 1 totals, with Louisville’s high-powered offense and James Madison’s efficient attack now inflating expectations here in Week 2. 

The bottom line here is that I feel that Week 1 offensive outbursts most of the time reflect weaker opponents or early-season anomalies, more often than not leading oddsmakers to overadjust. 

With potential weather impacts and James Madison’s possible quarterback issues, a lower-scoring, defensively driven game is how I see this one playing out on Friday night.'

This number is high, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER TCU/UNC.

TCU is coming off a big season, and it returns its starting quarterback in Josh Hoover, so the Horned Frogs are for sure a serious contender in the Big 12. Last year, Hoover threw for nearly 4,000 yards along with 27 passing touchdowns.

Hoover is projected to be one of the quarterbacks in the league, but his run game and receivers are essentially new, coming through the transfer portal, and as good as he is, it's going to take a bit of time to develop chemistry.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs allowed 24.6 PPG last season, but with the majority of their secondary returning, they're expecting to improve.

North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick has a new signal caller under center in Gio Lopez, who is working behind a good offensive line. Lopez's strength is likely his run game, and Belichick is expected to be careful with his star transfer to open the season. 

Belichick is a defensive-minded coac,h though, and the good news for the Tar Heels is that they return most of their secondary as well. 

As being primarily a "situational" capper, I feel that there are many factors pointing to this being a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring "shootout."

But here are a couple of strong supporting Over/Under trends as well, as note that: 

Eight of UNC's last nine games as an underdog have gone UNDER the number.

Seven of TCU's last nine road-openers as a favorite have gone UNDER the number as well.

I think this number is high, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% BLOOD-BATH on Miami.

Notre Dame lost 34-23 to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Championship last year, and I think it'll suffer a letdown here in the season-opener. 

The Irish won their opener last year at Texas A&M, but then fell 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois as 28-point favorites.

In the end the Irish finished 11-1. 

Miami was 10-3. The Hurricanes won 41-8 in the last matchup here at home back in 2017.

But Miami coach Mario Cristobal has his program reloaded for the 2025 season, including adding several veterans in the secondary. 

The  Hurricanes have a strong case to even win outright against Notre Dame in their Week 1 matchup at Hard Rock Stadium on August 31, 2025. 

Under coach Mario Cristobal, Miami’s roster is loaded with talent, particularly in the secondary, bolstered by experienced transfers like Xavier Lucas, who bring proven playmaking ability. 

Quarterback Carson Beck, a high-profile transfer, offers leadership and poise, capable of exploiting Notre Dame’s retooled defense under new coordinator Chris Ash. 

Miami’s running game, led by Mark Fletcher Jr., should challenge the Irish front, especially if they establish early momentum. 

The Hurricanes’ home-field advantage, fueled by a raucous crowd, could disrupt Notre Dame’s redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Carr, who faces a tough road test in his first start. 

Miami’s recent history of upsetting ranked teams, like their 2017 rout of Notre Dame, suggests they thrive in big moments, making them a live underdog.

While the outright is 100% possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with MIAMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on Virginia.

The Virginia Cavaliers are going to cover the larger spread against Coastal Carolina at Scott Stadium on Saturday night, leveraging coaching stability and home-field advantage. 

Head coach Tony Elliott, entering his fourth year, has brought consistency, integrating 30 transfers to bolster the roster, enhancing offensive and defensive depth. 

This stability contrasts with Coastal Carolina’s unsettled quarterback situation and defensive struggles, which will in turn allow Virginia to exploit mismatches. 

Playing at home, the Cavaliers benefit from what will be a crazy Scott Stadium crowd, with an expected mid-40k attendance, boosting morale under perfect late-summer conditions. 

Virginia’s historical success in September home games (14-2 as favorites) further tilt the scales. 

With quarterback Chandler Morris leading a battle-tested offense, Virginia’s cohesive unit and home energy will for sure overpower Coastal Carolina’s vulnerabilities, ensuring they not only win, but do so in blowout fashion.

Lay the points, the play is on UVA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% ANNIHILATION PLAY on the UNDER Syracuse/Tennessee.

The Orange offense is poised to take a significant "step back" this year, in my opinion, after losing quarterback Kyle McCord in the off-season. 

Also note that Syracuse brings back just 37 percent of its offensive production from last season, which is the least among all ACC teams.

The Orange have brought in former Notre Dame hopeful Steve Angeli to get the job done. 

Tennessee's offense is about to suffer some "growing pains" as well after losing Nick Iamaleava's sudden absence. The team also lost its leading rusher from a year ago, as well as a bunch of top receiving targets. 

The Vols finished 10-3 last year and then lost in the first round of the Football Playoff.

While the offense will potentially need some time to develop chemistry, note that Tennessee was one of the best in the nation on the defensive end last year by conceding just 16.1 points per game. That was seventh in the nation.

The Orange allowed 29.2 points per game last season, but as I've outlined, I don't expect this Tennessee offense to really run up the score here in Week 1. 

Instead, I see the home side looking to control the tempo and the game clock, and because of that and all of the other factors I've listed above, I'm indeed taking the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas.

To say this is a big game with huge implications would be an understatement. We'll get into the situational factors working in favor of Texas here shortly, but these are two teams that are expected to compete for a spot in the College Football Championship after doing so last year. 

These teams met in the College Football Championship semifinal game and the Buckeyes won by a score of 

28-14. 

So, clearly, the Longhorns have the "revenge factor" working in their favor to open up the season here.

Of course, the Buckeyes are playing at home and they'll be risking life and limb to secure a victory, I still think that Arch Manning and the visitors will find a way to not only cover, but win this one outright. That said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

This will be Manning's first year as the official starter, while Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin’s (projected) will make his first collegiate start.

With Manning stepping in as the full-time starter, Texas boasts a dynamic quarterback in Steve Sarkisian’s system, which should exploit Ohio State’s retooled defense, led by a new coordinator. 

Texas’ strong running game, featuring Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter, will control the tempo, while their elite secondary limits Ohio State’s passing attack. 

The Longhorns’ experience in high-pressure road games, like last year’s wins over Alabama and Michigan, gives them the edge in this top-five matchup.

While the outright win is a very real possibility, let's grab the points.

The play is on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NON-CONF CFB TOW on the UNDER UNLV/Sam Houston State.

These two teams enter having already played a game this year. UNLV held on for a 38-31 win over Idaho State as a 30.5-point favorite last week, while Sam Houston State fell apart in the second half of its 41-24 loss at Western Kentucky. 

Each team saw its total go OVER the number in its respective opener, but I'm anticipating a much less offensively-efficient game here on Friday night, and as a result, I expect this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Both teams have to be horrified about their respective defensive performances in Week 0. With each coach putting an added emphasis onto protecting the ball and to re-focus and double-down on the defensive end, everything points to a slower overall game pace to lead to a lower-scoring outcome once it's all said and done.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is 1% ATS WINNER on Baylor.

Five SEC teams finished with double-digit wins last year, and Auburn wasn't one of them. The Tigers went on to finish 5-7 overall and a 2-6 record in conference action. 

Hugh Freeze is definitely expected to now take his team to the next level, which means, at the very least, a bowl appearance. Freeze is back for his third year at the helm.

With games against Ball State and South Alabama to follow, could the Tigers be 3-0 after three weeks? Possibly, but with a loss and with trips to Oklahoma and Texas A&M, followed by matchups against Georgia and Missouri, then Auburn will be right back where it was last year. 

Auburn, though, does have a great quarterback with Jackson Arnold, who comes over from Oklahoma. His receivers got hurt last season, and it was then difficult for Arnold to live up to the hype.

Baylor finished 8-5 overall and 6-3 in the Big 12. The Bears then eventually fell 44-31 to LSU in the Texas Bowl on New Year's Eve. Baylor also enjoys consistency in its coaching staff, with Dave Aranda returning for his sixth year. 

The Bears will once again be leaning on fifth-year QB Sawyer Robertson, who led his team to the eight wins last year, including six in a row to close out the regular season. 

He threw for 3,071 yards with 28 TDs and just eight interceptions. He is a true dual-threat, though, as he also rushed for 230 yards with four TDs. 

And note that despite the loss, he threw for 445 yards and two TDs against LSU, a career high in yards.

Granted, Auburn is probably more talented across the field, but I'll argue that Baylor has the far more explosive offense. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched, and so do I!

So if we're getting the QB advantage in a Friday night home game, and take into account that we're also getting points, the value, in my opinion, for sure lies with the  undervalued live home dog.

The play is on BAYLOR.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK on NC State.

In my opinion, NC State is going to cover the spread against ECU in its Week 1 matchup at Carter-Finley Stadium, driven by revenge and a quarterback edge. 

After ECU’s 26-21 upset in last year’s Military Bowl, fueled by Rahjai Harris’ 220-yard performance, NC State is motivated to redeem itself in front of a sold-out home crowd. 

The Wolfpack’s sophomore quarterback, CJ Bailey, offers a clear advantage; Bailey threw for 2,413 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman, he showed poise and dual-threat ability, and completed 65% of his passes. 

ECU’s Katin Houser, while dynamic with 1,859 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, struggles with turnovers, a vulnerability NC State’s bolstered defense, with transfer additions like Nelson II and Slone, will exploit. 

With new coordinator Kurt Roper emphasizing playmakers like Hollywood Smothers, NC State’s offensive continuity and home-field energy will prove to be the difference-maker and I expect it to drive the Wolfpack to a big win and cover once it's all said and done.

Lay the points with NC STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on Akron.

Wyoming was 3-9 under Jay Sawvel in his first year as head coach last season. Last year, the Cowboys used two QBs, and both struggled. 

Kaden Anderson had 955 passing yards, six TDs, and 3 INTs last year, and he's back under center this season. North Texas grad transfer Damashja Harris will start at RB in a new system.

The Cowboys, though, struggled in many facets on the defensive end. Note that they have an entirely new secondary this year. 

Akron finished 4-8 SU and 6-6 ATS last year. The Zips finished the season strong, though by going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU. It beat Toledo 21-14 in OT here at home as a 9.5-point dog in the regular-season finale.

The Zips' weakness was on the defensive end as well, and the unit sports a lot of new faces this season, just like their counterpart. 

The difference here, though, is that Akron's offense behind Ben Finley, who is a transfer from Cal and who also played at NC State. 

Last year, he played in 12 games for Akron and finished with 2,620 passing yards, 16 TDs, and nine INTs. But this year, we'll also see Tahj Bullock under center in different offensive schemes. 

I'm stopping short of calling for an outright upset, but in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points with AKRON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOWOUT on USF.

Boise State is loaded with talent, but the best player on the field, most likely anyway, is USF quarterback Byrum Brown, who is 6 feet 2 and 231 pounds. 

Brown had a breakout season in 2023, passing for 3,242 yards, 26 TDs, and 11 INTs, while also rushing for 809 yards and another 11 TD's. Last year, though, he suffered a leg injury in the fifth game of the year. In those five games, he rushed for 268 yards and three TDs, while also throwing for 836 yards and two other TDs with no INTs. 

And Brown is going to benefit greatly from playing behind probably the American Conference's best offensive line, with four returning starters who have 114 career starts between them.

He'll also have a strong run game anchored by Cartevious Norton, who had 525 rushing yards and seven touchdowns for Charlotte last year.

The weakness last year for the Bulls was their defense. That'll be the weak point again this year, but it should be improved as well. 

Boise State lost its best offensive weapon from last year, as All-American running back Ashton Jeanty went sixth in the draft to the Raiders.

That said, the Broncos are still loaded with talent, on both sides of the ball, including quarterback Maddux Madsen, who had 3,018 passing yards with a 23-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio. He has plenty of receivers and a stable of good running backs as well.

This isn't going to be a cake-walk for the Bulls, and an outright upset is unlikely. The Broncos averaged 37.3 points per game, while allowing 22.6. 

Brown is a real X-Factor here that I think Boise State will have issues with on Thursday night. Without Jeanty, this Broncos offense will be more one-dimensional to open the season. 

And if you think the road ahead will be any easier for USF, think again, with a game at Florida and then at Miami after that! 0-3 for USF to open the season? That's a very real possibility, and it makes this more winnable Week 1 home game even more important.

Boise State, on the other hand, returns home for a "cream puff" against Eastern Washington. 

In a contest that I see coming right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on USF.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% TOP ROUT on Stanford on the moneyline.

Stanford took a step back last year under Troy Taylor, but Frank Reich has been hired to hopefully turn things around.

The Cardinal played at Hawaii in Week 1 of the 2023 season and won 37-24. But off a challenging debut season, the ACC in which they finished 3-9 overall last year and 2-6 in the ACC, I think there's only one way that QB Elijah Brown and six offensive starters returning from last season can go this year. 

The defense was a weak point last year, but GM Andrew Luck did a decent job addressing that over the off-season. Another plus for his team is that top RB Micah Ford returns, who should also vastly improve this season after finishing with 309 rushing yards and 76 carries last year. 

Timmy Chang was 5-7 in 2023 and 5-7 in 2024. Brayden Schaeger is gone from under center for the Rainbow Warriors, with Micah Alejado taking over. Alejado took over in the season finale after Schager was injured, and while he looked decent against a poor New Mexico team wth five touchdown passes, the sample size is much too small to draw any real conclusions.

The Cardinal may be projected to finish dead last in the ACC this year, but Stanford comes from the PAC 12 and is now part of the ACC, and it's still in an entirely "different class" in my opinion than a lower-end Mountain West team. 

I think Reich earns his team a victory here in Week Zero, but then gets humbled in conference play throughout the rest of the season.

Let's bypass the spread and instead take STANFORD on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% ATS BLOOD-BATH on Western Kentucky.

Western Kentucky knocked Sam Houston State out of being able to play in the Conference Championship game last year after the Bearkats had a break out season.

But Sam Houston State has essentially an entirely new team, except for its quarterback. That includes a new head coach.

WKU isn't the same team either, with a new starting QB and plenty of new faces as well. But WKU's transfer depth was/is much greater and that's going to pay dividends down the stretch and here at home in Week 0.

The Sam Houston State defense is completely revamped, and I think the unit will struggle in the second half.

Lay the points, the play is on WESTERN KENTUCKY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BACKDOOR BEATDOWN on Fresno State.

I like the Fresno State Bulldogs to cover the +12.5 spread against the Kansas Jayhawks as I expect them to leverage their new quarterback, EJ Warner, and a gritty defensive unit. 

Warner, a seasoned transfer with nearly 9,000 passing yards, brings poise and a quick release to exploit Kansas’ shaky secondary, which ranked 103rd in passing yards allowed last season. 

Under new coach Matt Entz, Fresno’s disciplined approach minimizes mistakes, while their secondary, led by Al’zillion Hamilton, contains Kansas’ new receivers. 

Warner’s ability to manage the game and take calculated deep shots keeps the Bulldogs competitive, pushing Kansas to the brink.

Grab the points, the play is on FRESNO STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Ohio State/Notre Dame.

If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know the cast of characters on each side (both players and coaches), their strengths and weaknesses, and how they got to this point. If not, just google it and you'll have access to millions of "review" articles.

I think the longer layoff will benefit these defenses, and be a small detriment to the offenses.

Ohio State has won all three playoff games by at least 14 points, most recently the 28-14 victory over Texas. The Buckeyes' only loss this year came against Oregon, who they also beat in the CFP.

Will Howard leads an offense that averages 35.8 PPG. But the Buckeyes' smothering defense concedes just 12.2.

Notre Dame enters with some injury concerns to key offensive players, including to QB Riley Leonard, who has finally just been cleared to play following a blow to the head in the win over Penn State.

The Irish averaged 37 PPG, but conceded just 14.3.

The majority of the money is predicting a shootout here, but I believe it's these underrated defensive units that will "steal the show" so to speak.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP