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This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Lions/Elks.

I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring game here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

BC is now 5-1 overall after a 19-9 win over Saskatchewan at home last weekend. But the Lions will have their hands full here with the 0-7 Elks, who just want to snap the winless streak. They play with revenge after a 22-0 loss in BC back in Week 2, but note that the Elks have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. 

Edmonton has posted 43 points combined over its last two games, and I'm expecting it to continue to progress on the offensive side of the ball this revenge-scenario.

Everything points to a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting.

So the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERNECE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Argos/Ti-Cats.

The defending Grey Cup Champion Toronto Argonauts are 4-0 SU/ATS and they've seen the last three of their games eclipse the posted number as far as the total is concerned. Note though that Toronto has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

These teams played in Week 2 in Hamilton, which was the Argos first game of the year, and Toronto left there with the 32-14 win and cover, the total in that one stayed UNDER the posted number of 47, and I feel we'll see a similar final combined score here as well.

After three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, Hamilton has won two straight SU/ATS. That includes last week's high-scoring 37-29 win at Edmonton. The Ti-Cats though have been trading high-scoring games, with lower-scoring ones since Week 1 though, and after last week's high-scoring "shootout," I believe this strong pattern continues this weekend.

Toronto plays a neutral-field game against Saskatchewan next week, so not only is this a minor letdown spot after the four straight wins, but it's also a minor look-ahead position. Usually when you combine those two factors, you get a "trap" game.

Finally, note that Hamilton has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Ti-Cats/Elks.

It's safe to say that neither team can be happy where it's at currently at this point of the season.

Hamilton is 1-3, including 0-2 on the road, but it's still favored here in Edmonton vs. an 0-5 Elks side.

Hamilton has been trading high-scoring games, with low-scoring ones so far this year, and off its first win of the year, a 21-13 win at home over Ottawa (that was my CFL Eastern Conference Game of the Year, don't miss my 10* Western Conference Game of the Year which goes this weekend!), I look for this O/U pattern to continue here in Week 6. 

Edmonton is beyond desperate. The Elks are on the ropes and essentially already planning for next year. But, they'll still be risking life and limb here for a better result and their first victory of the season. 

I'm expecting a more wide-open offensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Lions/Argos.

BC is 3-0 and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight. That fact though has only helped in driving this particular Week 4 total a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

Also note that BC has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Toronto is 2-0. It's scored a total of 75 points so far. The new faces on offense are getting better with each week and with the home side pushing the pace throughout, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CFL TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bombers/Als.

Winnipeg is 2-1, while Montreal is 2-0.

Last week though the Blue Bombers got punched in the mouth in their 30-6 home loss to the Lions.

Now they face a similar difficult defense here in Montreal, which has given up a total of just 24 points this season. 

With this game being played in Montreal, I'm expecting the Als to control the pace.

(This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Argos/Eskimos.

Here is a great "situational" play. I'm primarily a situational handicapper, with a strong lean to contrarianism. That said, with both teams having already played to several lower-scoring games to open the season, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here.

Toronto hammered Hamilton 32-14 in its first game of the season with a new face under center. Chad Kelly finished a respectable 14 of 23 for 213 yards, zero TD's and no turnovers. Kelly though had three rushing TD's and 28 rushing yards overall. AJ Oullette finished with 60 rushing yards. 

Edmonton is 0-2 SU/ATS. Both games have fallen well UNDER the number, including in last week's 22-0 loss at BC (note that the Elks have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after getting shutout in their previous start.) 

Taylor Cornelius had his second straight pedestrian game for Edmonton, finishing 13 of 22 for 98 yards, no TD's and no INT's. 

Cornelius and RB Kevin Brown are going to have open up the offense here though to get off the schneid. 

I say this is the week the Elks finally put some points on the board and overall I believe because of their low-scoring ways to open the season, this Week 3 total is a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.  

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Als/Ti-Cats.

The Ti-Cats are desperate for a win here. They're 0-2 SU/ATS, with one game going over (42-31 loss at Winnipeg), and one game going under (32-14 loss at Toronto last week.) Now back home, I'm expecting a wide-open shootout like in Week 1.

Montreal is off a low-scoring 19-12 home win over Ottawa in its first game of the season last week, but with the home side pushing the pace like I anticipate, I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHERN LIGHTS TOTAL on the UNDER Lions/Bombers.

These teams are similar in some ways, and different in others. They're both 2-0 SU and ATS, but Winnipeg has seen both of its first two games go OVER the number, while BC has seen the first two games go UNDER. 

BC's new QB Vernon Adams Jr. has looked good early on with 600 passing yards and 46 rushing yards. He's compliemented by RB Taquan Mizzell, who is averaging 5.8 YPC.

Is the Lions defense as good as it appears? So far BC has allowed only 15 points over two games. Or is that more due to the level of competition?

Clearly the Elks are terrible, but the Calgary win was impressive in Week 1. 

I just expect BC to try and control the tempo of this one whenever on offense, so as to counter the Bombers' strong offense.

Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros has 647 passing yards, but there's no question that this will be the best defense he's faced yet after crushing both Hamilton and Saskatchewan.

This is the highest total so far this season, and in my opinion it's a little TOO high.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Saskatchewan/Edmonton.

Both teams missed the playoffs last year. There's going to be continued growing pains for each offense.

Saskatchewan has a new QB in Trevor Harris, who has a ton of experience, but who will still need time to acclimate himself.

Lots of starters returning for Saskatchewan on the defensive end, as the Roughriders missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016. 

Edmonton has won a combined seven games over the last two seasons. There's only one way to for the Elks this season, who start Taylor Cornelius at QB. The Elks did a lot of work on the defense over the off-season, as "getting off the field" more this year will be a priority for the club.

I envision an awkward, lower-scoring contest, one that's decided in the trenches and by field position.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP