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This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Chiefs/Eagles.

If you're betting on the BIG GAME and if you've bought this pick, and or a long-term client, then I don't have to tell you the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, or the cast of characters for each side. You know these teams and the storylines (and if you don't just google it and you'll quickly get caught up to date on who these people are, and how they got to this ultimate game.)

To be honest, there is no real value in betting on the Super Bowl. This is the biggest game of the year, under a complete microscope on every angle, as the oddsmakers prepare to fleece their biggest audience of all time.

Either way, there are a few reasons I like the UNDER here.

Reason 1: Over 75% of the early money is expecting another high-scoring game, so playing the "under" immediately appeals to my contrarian side.

Reason 2: I've had great success in the past in betting the UNDER in the Super Bowl, after both Conference Championship games went OVER the number. And that was definitely the case this year. And that's a big reason why the public has been quick to back another high-scoring affair. And the bookmakers KNOW this. Las Vegas has raised the O/U line a bit higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion

Reason 3: These are two underrated defenses in my opinion. Those units struggled in their respective Conference Championship games admittedly, but they are one of the biggest reasons that each team is where it is right now.

Reason 4: Philadelphia will be committed to establishing the run with Saquan Barkely in the backfield. This strategy will hopefully keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible, but it will also kill the clock.

As primarily a "situational" capper, these are the primary reasons why I believe the Super Bowl will produce a lower-scoring UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL on the UNDER Washington/Philadelphia.

These teams faced off twice in the regular season of course being from the same division.

Philadelphia won 26-18 here in Week 11, while Washington won 36-33 in Week 16 in the Nation's capital.

The Eagles benefit from playing their third straight at home, but because this one is indeed being held in Philadelphia, I'm predicting a similar final combined score as what we saw in their first matchup against each other during the regular season.

The Commanders' defense looked great in the win at Tampa, and did just enough to hold off the high-powered Lions, although the unit would have taken the foot off the gas after the offense provided such a huge early lead.

Washington though will have to deal with the outdoor harsh wintery conditions for the first time in the Playoffs, and so I expect that to be a detriment to Jayden Daniels and the offense.

With each team looking to establish the run throughout, I'm rolling with the UNDER in the NFC Championship Game.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Ohio State/Notre Dame.

If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know the cast of characters on each side (both players and coaches), their strengths and weaknesses, and how they got to this point. If not, just google it and you'll have access to millions of "review" articles.

I think the longer layoff will benefit these defenses, and be a small detriment to the offenses.

Ohio State has won all three playoff games by at least 14 points, most recently the 28-14 victory over Texas. The Buckeyes' only loss this year came against Oregon, who they also beat in the CFP.

Will Howard leads an offense that averages 35.8 PPG. But the Buckeyes' smothering defense concedes just 12.2.

Notre Dame enters with some injury concerns to key offensive players, including to QB Riley Leonard, who has finally just been cleared to play following a blow to the head in the win over Penn State.

The Irish averaged 37 PPG, but conceded just 14.3.

The majority of the money is predicting a shootout here, but I believe it's these underrated defensive units that will "steal the show" so to speak.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Bills.

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters on each side, from the players to the coaches, and also the strengths and weaknesses of each team. And if now, then just go google a "review" article on this game, and literally millions will appear to get you up to date.

I'm a sports handicapper, not a sports broadcaster or reviewer.

I'm here to tell you why I think this Titanic battle will be a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. 

The Bills looked great on both sides of the ball in their 31-7 win over the Broncos at home, but Denver's offense is just terrible.

I believe Buffalo carries over that defensive momentum here though. When these teams played here in late September, the Ravens won 35-10. While I think this contest will be a lot more competitive, I'm definitely expecting a similar final combined score here.

Also note that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Ravens' defense also looked great in their 28-14 home win over Pittsburgh. 

Yes, we have two of the most dynamic QB's going head-to-head here, but I'm expecting these under-rated defensive units to "steal the show."

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL ROUND TOY on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs.

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters on each side, from the players to the coaches, and also the strengths and weaknesses of each team. And if now, then just go google a "review" article on this game, and literally millions will appear to get you up to date.

I'm a sports handicapper, not a sports broadcaster or reviewer.

I'm here to tell you why I think the Texans and Chiefs will go UNDER the number here in Kansas City in the divisional round on Saturday afternoon.

The total snuck over the number in Houston's 32-12 win over the Chargers. It's interesting to note though that the Texans have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five of a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. 

These teams played on December 21st here and KC won 27-19. The total in that contest was set right around the 42 to 42.5 range as well. That total snuck OVER the number, but note that Houston has also seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. 

Kansas City benefits greatly from the extra time off. It lost 38-0 to Denver in a meaningless contest in Week 18, but over their previous three victories combined before that, the Chiefs conceded a total of just 36 points. 

I see this contest being decided by field position and the men in the trenches, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Commanders/Bucs.

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, and they also played to a high-scoring OVER vs. each other in the Bucs 37-20 win over the Commanders here back on September 8th.

Note though that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Bucs enter off a 27-19 win over the Saints, but despite that total flying OVER the number, note that Tampa has still seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 17 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The team that plays the better defense is going to move on. Baker Mayfield has looked brilliant at times this year, and really pedestrian in others.

I think this game will be decided by field position and the men in the trenches in the "rematch."

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Broncos/Bills.

Denver is 10-7 and it managed a 38-10 win over Kansas City in its final regular season game.

The Broncos' defense excelled and I'm fully expecting the unit to carry over that momentum here. 

The Bills finished 13-4 despite a 23-16 loss at New England in the regular-season finale. 

The last thing Denver can do is turn this into a shootout with Josh Allen obviously, so expect the visitors to try and establish the run throughout.

When these teams played in 2023, Denver won 24-22 in an upset as a 7.5-point dog, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here. 

These defenses are underrated. Expect a similar final combined outcome as their previous outing here from when they played last year; the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WC TOY on the OVER Steelers/Ravens.

Can the Steelers win a lower-scoring grind-it-out battle with Baltimore on the road?

I say, no way. If Pittsburgh is going to pull off the upset, it'll have to match Baltimore punch for punch on the offensive end. When these teams played on december 21st, Baltimore won 34-17, and the total went OVER the number.

When they played on November 17th at Pittsburgh, the Steelers won 18-16.

If this game were in Pittsburgh I'd likely be leaning to another defensive battle, but I'm expecting these teams to produce their highest-scoring outcome so far in the "grudge match."

Pittsburgh stumbled badly down the stretch with four straight losses, but Russel Wilson and company can erase the stench of this terrible stretch by putting the Ravens on the defensive here.

And what more can be said about LaMar Jackson, who has put together an even better campaign this season, over his MVP campaign a year ago.

I'm expecting these offenses to decide this contest, so I'm on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CFP SEMIFINAL TOY on the OVER Notre Dame/Penn State.

I'm expecting these teams to explode on the offensive end, as I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Both teams are coming off low-scoring victories to advance, but it's the offense that I see rolling for each team here in the CFP Semi Final.

Notre Dame beat a tough Georgia team by a score of 20-10, while Penn State advanced with a 31-14 victory over Boise State.

I expect each of these team to put up AT LEAST an equivalent amount of offense this week as well, making the OVER the correct call as far as the total is concerned. 

So far Penn State has posted 69 points over its two Playoff games and there's no reason not to think that this unit won't keep rolling here (Drew Allar had three TD's in the win over Boise State.)

The Penn State defense did take a hit though with defensive end Abdul Carter a big question mark heading into this one.

Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard is poised for a big bounce back effort after doing just enough to take out Georgia.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the UNDER Washington/Dallas.

Week 18 is all about betting great "situations" in my opinion. No need to overthink anything, I employ the "KISS" method most of the time (Keep It Simple Stupid!)

Washington has exceeded expectations this year. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has exceeded expectations to this point as well. The Commanders clinched a playoff spot last week, and I'm predicting a natural letdown spot here.

The last thing the Commanders can afford to do here is put any of their key players in danger.

The Cowboys are off the 41-7 loss at Philly last week, and Dallas has seen the total go OVER in three straight. Note though that looking back the Boys have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Everything points to this one being decided by field position and the men in the trenches and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Bears/Packers.

Betting Week 18 in the National Football League is all about betting "situations" in my opinion.

You have to judge the motivation for each side.

I definitely don't see the Bears suddenly throwing a switch here and caring and trying to put points on the board, while ruining their positioning for the draft.

Chicago has lost ten straight. The Packers will lok to go up early, and then just cruise to victory here. I'm not sure they can cover this larger spread, but I definitely am expecting very few points to hit the board in this one.

Green Bay does need a win here to keep pace with Washington for positioning, but note that there's also snow in the forecast.

Look for the clock to run quickly and for this total to stay well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Notre Dame/Georgia.

It's a common theme here with my 3-game Bowl report, as I'm expecting these "defenses" to "steal the show" so to speak.

Notre Dame advanced by taking out Indiana 27-17, while Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in OT to win the SEC Championship, earning a "bye" in the first round.

The Irish average 38.8 PPG, while allowing just 13.8.

Riley Leonard though will be under pressure by an aggressive Georgia defense that concedes 20.4 PPG. The Bulldogs though are down to their second-string QB in Gunner Stockton for this one.

Georgia could also struggle to run the ball here.

This one is going to be decided by field position and the men in the trenches and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Ohio State/Oregon.

With nearly 75% of the money expecting a higher-scoring shootout, I'm definitely going full-on "contrarian" for this one.

Ohio State looks to avenge a 32-31 loss in Oregone from earlier in the year, and note that looking back the Buckeyes have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent.

OSU took out Tennessee 42-17 in the first round, while the Ducks earned a first-round by by winning the Big Ten Championship in their first year in the conference.

But OSU looked dominant defensively vs. the Vols, posting four sacks. The Buckeyes own the No. 1 defense in the country.

The Ducks took out Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship, but look for "rest" to lead to "rust" to begin with.

I'm prediciting a completely difference overall "pace" than what the majority is perceiving.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Texas/ASU.

Arizona State looks really overmatched here. The Sun Devils have two great players in QB Sam Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo, but this Texas defense is on another level.

ASU did struggle already against good defensive teams that can stop the run, but the Longhorns are on an entirely different level.

I look for Texas to go up early and then grind out a victory here, but look for this overall pace to lead to a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL BLOWOUT PLAY on the UNDER Bama/Michigan.

Everyone and their grandmother is expecting a high-scoring shootout, but I don't see it that way. Two storied schools collide here early in the Reliaquest Bowl, and in my opinion, everything points to more of a defensive battle than what the majority have backed already.

Both teams are out of the College Football Playoff and I have a hard time seeing either being too motivated for this Bowl Game on Saturday afternoon.

Bama missing out on the expanded 12-team CFP is a shocker and I believe the team will simply go through the motions here. 

The Wolverines won the National title last year, but struggled with consistency from game-to-game this season under new head coach Sherrone Moore. They especially struggled at the QB position. 

Each team though had its fair share of offensive difficulties this year, but each was above-average defensively, each ranking in the Top 20 overall.

Look for these defenses to "carry the show" on Saturday afternoon in this one. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Lions/49ers.

Detroit is the only NFC team to never reach the Super Bowl. The Lions have a nasty history of crapping the bed in the Playoffs. 

Who knows what will happen this season, but I say the conditions are correct for more of a defensive battle on Monday night. 

Detroit plays with revenge here after falling 34-31 to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. 

But San Francisco is out of playoff contention now, and has many injuries across the board.

Detroit doesn't need to run up the score or impress anyone. It needs a win and to prepare for a deep Playoff run.

I predict a much lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOW on the UNDER Packers/Vikings.

For a number of different reasons I believe that this O/U line is too high, and therefore I'll be recommending a play on the UNDER.

This is a big game for each side, and I believe this intense sense of competition will lead to a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a higher-scoring "shootout."

Minnesota is 13-2 and in the driver's seat. Interesting though: the Vikes have been trading high-scoring games iwth low-scoring ones, and after a tighter-than-expected 27-24 win at Seattle last week, I believe this pattern continues in this important home divisional contest.

They say that divisional contests always mean the most and that they almost always mean the most to the home side, but that's not the case in this matchup, as Green Bay enters 11-4 and third in the NFC North after last week's 34-0 win over the Saints. It was a dominant defensive performance.

Green Bay plays with revenge after a 31-29 loss at home to Minnesota earlier in the year, and note that the Packers have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in, along with the above-listed relevant/supporting O/U ATS stats all point to this contest staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Raiders/Saints.

A great "situational" play, backed by strong/relevant O/U ATS stats.

Both teams have struggled with consistency all year. Each has been eliminated. With nothing to lose (except another game!), I'm expecting a wide-open offensive "shootout" here, despite these team's offensive stats to this point.

Las Vegas is off a 19-14 win over Jacksonville and while it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight, note that the Raiders have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Saints have lost three straight. They're off the terrible 34-0 loss at Green Bay. Note though that looking back New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS shutout road loss.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will from start to finish, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOY on the UNDER Panthers/Bucs.

I think that the overall situation that each team finds itself in, combined with several relevant/supporting O/U ATS stats all point to this being a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Carolina is 4-11. It's been eliminated. So the Panthers are throwing in the "white towel" right?

Clearly note the case after last week's 36-30 OT win over Arizona, as the Panthers relished the role of playing Playoff spoiler. They lost 26-23 in OT at home to Tampa in early December, and note that the Panthers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

Tampa just had its four-game win streak snapped in a 26-24 upset loss at Dallas. Look for the Bucs to double-down on the defensive end here as they try to keep pace for a Wildcard spot.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the UNDER Broncos/Bengals.

There is a lot on the line for each side. If Denver wins a single game over its final two, then it'll punch its ticket to the postseason.

The Bengals though need to win out and get a bunch of crazy help to advance.

That said, Denver just had its four-game win streak snapped in last week's 34-27 loss at the Chargers, while Cincinnati enters having won three straight.

Note that the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Bengals' offense has looked sharp of late, but its defense was on point in last week's 24-6 home win over the Browns.

I'm expecting a similar defensive effort here as well.

The overall situation that each side finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends point to this one staying well UNDER the posted number

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOW on the UNDER Hawks/Bears.

The Bears are eliminated the Hawks are hanging on for dear life after back-to-back losses.

Chicago's only motivation here is to secure their own jobs for next season. That's big motivation. No one wants to lose. And to be the final nail in the coffin for Seattle's playoff chances is also big motivation.

Seattle enters off the 27-24 loss to Minnesota, one week after falling 30-12 at home to Green Bay. Now on the road and on the short week, I'm expecting fatigue to play a factor as well in this pick.

Seattle has been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones, and I believe this pattern continues here.

This one will be decided by field position and then men in the trenches, and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Bucs/Cowboys.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but with the majority of the general betting public quick to back another high-scoring game, I'm going the other way and definitely anticipating a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Dallas is 6-8 and 3-1 in its last four after last week's 30-14 win at Carolina. Note though that the Cowboys have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog.

Tampa Bay is 8-6 and it's won four in a row after last week's 40-17 win over the Chargers. Tampa has allowed just 30 combined points over its last two victories and there's no reason not to think that the Bucs can't/won't keep that defensive momentum rolling here as well.

There is a lot on the line for both sides and I'm expecting this extreme sense of competition to translate into a defensive battle, one that's decided by field position and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the UNDER Pats/Bills.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe everything finally points to more of a defensive affair here on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo.

New England is just 3-11, and it'll just be trying its best to be competitive here. The Pats have seen the total go OVER in five straight after last week's 30-17 loss at Arizona, but note that looking back NE has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Buffalo is 11-3, bouncing back from a 44-42 loss at LA to beat the Lions 48-42 in Detroit. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS divisional road win as an underdog.

Buffalo isn't going to have to run up this score to win this game. Look for the Bills to control the tempo and the pace of this one as they now carefully prepare for a deep playoff run.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Texans/Chiefs.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the conditions are now definitely right for more of an offensive affair on Saturday afternoon.

Houston is 9-5 and off back-to-back wins. It's seen the total go UNDER in two straight. Public bettors are quick to back another low-scoring game, so we're once again going contrarian here and going the opposite way. 

KC is 13-1 and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last week's 21-7 win at Cleveland. That's significant for us to take note of though, as looking back the Chiefs have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

With two tough road games to close out the year at Pittsburgh and Denver, I believe the home side will push the pace from start to finish here in front of the home town crowd.

In my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOM on the UNDER Denver/LA.

I base my picks on many different things, and this particular one is based upon what I perceive to be a great "situation."

Denver is 9-5 after four straight victories. It's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Denver also plays with revenge after a 23-16 home loss to the Chargers in mid-October, and note that the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

The Chargers are 8-6 after back-to-back losses and I'm expecting them to double-down defensively after their humbling 40-17 home loss to Tampa last time out.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FRISCO BOWL TOTAL on the UNDER Memphis/WVU.

Both teams played to several higher-scoring games to close out the regular season, but player turnover and transfers, combined with the long lay off will lead to less efficent offenses here in my estimation.

Memphis only allows 22.8 PPG, and WVU concedes 31.1. 

I'm expecting the Tigers to dictate the pace of this one. WVU fired its head coach and has an interim and I just can't see the Mountaineers putting up huge numbers here.

Look for this total to fall well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Bears/Vikes.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including against each other in their first matchup of the season, but I think that the conditions are now right for much more of a defensive battle on Monday night.

Chicago is 4-9 and it enters off six straight losses. The Bears looked feeble in last week's 38-13 loss at San Francisco and I have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack this week either.

Minnesota won the first matchup 30-27 in OT, and note that the Bears have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a home loss vs. a divisional opponent.

The Vikes enter 11-2 and on absolute fire right now on both ends of the field.

Minnesota has been alternating OVERS with UNDERS over its last five games, and off last week's 42-21 home win over Atlanta, I expect this pattern to continue.

With the Bears trying to slow the pace of this one down and eat up the clock as fast as possible, everything in my opinion points to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIV TOY on the UNDER Packers/Hawks.

Because of the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with a few relevant stats/trends, I believe this O/U line is way too high.

Field postion and the men in the trenches are what will win this game, and because of that I'm going to be suggesting a play on the UNDER.

Green Bay is 9-4 after a tough 34-31 loss at Detroit in Week 14. The Packers have been alternating high-scoring games with low-scoring ones over their last four and I expect this pattern to continue here in this difficult road venue.

The Seahawks are 8-5 afer four straight victories. The most points they've given up over the surge was 21, in a 26-21 road victory at the Jets two weeks ago. 

The last time the Hawks played at home they won 16-6 over Arizona and I'm expecting a similar aggressive defensive performance here on Sunday at home on the National stage this week as well. 

For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* THURSDAY NIGHT TOY on the UNDER Rams/49ers.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I say the conditions are now correct for much more of a defensive battle on Thursday night.

The Rams are 7-6 after back-to-back victories, most recently pulling off the 44-41 home win over Buffalo.

Before that though they won 21-14 at New Orleans on the road, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

It's 6-7 San Francisco that plays with revenge here though after falling 27-24 at LA as a 6.5-point favorite in mid September, and note that the 49ers have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent.

It's a big game for each side. It's a short week at the end of the regular season. 

The overall situation that each side finds itself in coming into this contest, combined with the numbers/trends listed above ALL point to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOY on the UNDER Bengals/Cowboys.

As primarily a situational capper, these are exactly the types of contests that I'm constantly keeping my eyes open for.

5-7 Dallas will need a miracle to make the Playoffs, while 4-8 Cincinnati has been eliminated from contention.

Each has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but I say that the conditions are now definitely correct for more of a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

These teams played here in 2022 and the Cowboys won 20-17. I expect a similar final combined score here as well.

Dallas has won two straight and is 5-7. The Cowboys haven't thrown in the towel yet. Note though that looking back finds Dallas having seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

I say the Bengals have run out of gas. Physically and mentally now they've checked out. Especially after last week's 44-38 home loss to division rival Pittsburgh. Joe threw his best shot, and it once again came up just short.

With nothing to play for here, and facing a non-conference opponent, the visitors could be caught just "going through the motions" in this one.

As stated off the top, for me being a "situational" capper at heart, this particular matchup ticks all the boxes as far as I'm concerned.

The play is the UNDER. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOM on the OVER Hawks/Cards.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a "shootout" in Arizona on Sunday between these divisional opponents for a couple of different reasons in my opinion.

This is a big game for each side and I'm expecting each to push the pace from start to finish.

Seattle is now 7-5 and first in the NFC West after its third straight win by beating the Jets in New York by a score of 26-21. 

Arizona though lost two in a row after last week's tight 23-22 loss at Minnesota to fall to 6-6. Arizona though does play with revenge after Week 12's 16-6 loss at Seattle, and note that the Cards have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent.

I see these offenses setting the tone early and often and because of that, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOW on the UNDER Browns/Steelers.

While these teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Browns' 24-19 win at home in Week 12, I'm finally expecting much more of a defensive battle here on Sunday in the final regular season matchup between these divisional opponents.

Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Cleveland fell 41-32 at Denver last weekend, but also note that looking back the Browns have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Look for Pittsburgh to control the tempo at home and for the total to stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOM on the OVER Clemson/SMU.

I'm expecting these two sides to push the pace and I believe this faster tempo will eventually lead to this total blasting past the number once it's all said and done.

With a spread like this, obviously the bookmakers believe these two teams are evenly matched. And for the most part they are. This one is a coin-flip as far as the side is concerned in my opinion, but these offenses are about to "steal the show." 

Clemson is 9-3 after having its three-game win streak snapped in a 17-14 home loss to South Carolina in its final regular-season game, but note that the Tigers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

SMU finished 11-1 and scored 48, 38, 33, and 38 points over its last four victories.

Look for Clemson's Cade Klubnik and Kevin Jennings to set the tone and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOM on the UNDER Marshall/Louisiana.

It's 10-2 Louisiana vs. 9-3 Marshall for the Sun Belt Championship, and in my opinion, everything points to a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Marshall comes in on a six-game win streak. It just beat James Madison 35-33 in double OT last Saturday.

Braylon Braxton is great with a 17-2 TD:INT, but Marshall's defense is great as well in conceding only 24.3 PPG.

Louisiana has been sharp defensively in all conference games this season, conceding only 21.8 PPG.

Ben Woolridge has 17 TD's and five INT's for the Ragin Cajuns and as good as these two teams are offensive, in my opinion, the winner is the one that steps up and plays the best defense.

This one has the feel of being decided by field position and in the trenches and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the OVER UNLV/Boise State.

These teams play for the Mountain West title on Friday night and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Boise State beat UNLV 29-24 on October 25th, and that game stayed UNDER the number of 63.5. Now the Championship Game total is more than a full field goals worth of points lower, and it's now way too low in my estimation.

Note that looking back that UNLV has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent.

I'm absolutely expecting another very competitive battle between these evenly matched sides, but everything points to the rematch easily eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOM on the OVER WKU/Jacksonville State.

Jacksonville State is hosting WKU for the 2024 Conference USA Championship this coming weekend.

The Hilltoppers won 19-17 at home over Jacksonville State last weekend as 1-point favorites, the total staying WELL BELOW the posted number of 61 in that one.

Now just a week later these teams rematch and I'm absolutely expecting a completely different dynamic here.

And with the O/U set nearly a full FG lower than the final regular season game, I think we're getting great value here.

Note that Jacksonville State has also seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five off a SU/ATS conference road loss. 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOM on the OVER Packers/Lions.

A big NFC North matchup between two gunslinging QB's and two of the league's highest-scoring teams, and in my opinion everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Green Bay is 9-3 after three straight victories. The Packers fell 24-14 to Detroit at home back in early November, but note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

Detroit though is 11-1 after its most recent 23-20 win here over Chicago. It's been getting the job done with defense over the last three games, but it also has faced three straight offensively challenged opponents (Jags, Colts and Bears.)

The Lions will have to be careful not to get caught looking ahead, as they do in fact have a difficult final schedule, with upcoming games here vs. Buffalo, a Chicago, at San Francisco, and here at home to Minnesota to close.

Either way, the short week is going to have more of an adverse effect on these defenses in my estimation and because of that, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Browns/Broncos.

Denver is 7-5 after back-to-back victories. While it went OVER the number in last week's 29-19 win at Las Vegas, it's still only conceded 25 points over its last two games.

The Broncos will have to be careful to not get caught "looking ahead" here to their bye week either, coming at a great time before their final four games.

Either way, look for the home side to try and control the clock and the pace.

The Browns will be looking to establish their run game as well after moving to 3-8 following last week's 24-19 victory vs. Pittsburgh.

While each went OVER the number in their last game, this Monday Night Football primetime match-up points to this one being decided by field position, and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER 49ers/Bills.

For a couple of different reasons I'm expecting a much lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I'm expecting field position and the men in the trenches will ultimately decide this one.

A bit of a difficult spread though, but the total points to a tight battle for sure.

San Francisco is 5-6 and struggling with offensive consistency right now. And I don't see that pattern changing on a cold night in Buffalo in December.

Last week San Fran could only manage ten points in its 38-10 setback at Green Bay.

The Bills are 9-2 and and in the "drivers seat" after last week's 30-21 home win over the Chiefs. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in five straight games. But I just don't see Buffalo running up the score here, or needing to.

With two straight difficult road games after this at LA and Detroit. the home side will also be looking/planning ahead.

I say the conditions are correct for a lower-scoring UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Steelers/Bengals.

A really great situational play here on a number of different levels.

Pittsburgh just had its five-game win streak snapped in last weeks 24-19 loss at Cleveland. Now its a second straight divisional road game and everything points to a similar final combined score here as well in my opinion.

The Bengals are 4-7 and you have to wonder how much fight is left in them with six difficult games remaining and off back-to-back losses. Despite last week's 34-27 loss at the Chargers going OVER the number, note that Cincinnati has still seen the total dip below the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Pittsburgh will look to grind out the win here and I'm expecting this more methodical overall pace to help in producing a lower-scoring outcome once the final whistle sounds.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Maryland/Penn State.

Both teams have been involved in a few higher-scoring games of late, but I think that the conditions are right here for each to play to a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring outcome at Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions are 10-1. They've seen the total go OVER in two straight following last week's 26-25 win at Minnesota. 

Maryland is 4-7 though and now has nothing to play for here after last wek's 29-13 loss at home to Iowa, the Terps fourth straight SU loss.

Maryland has especially struggled offensively the last few weeks. That wil continue here at Penn State, as the Nittany Lions will go up early, and then coast to victory.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOW on the UNDER Raiders/Chiefs.

I think everything points to a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle on Friday between these AFC West opponents.

Las Vegas is 2-9 and has nothing to play for here except to try and play spoiler. It lost 27-20 to KC back on October 27th at home, and while the game went OVER the number, note that the Raiders have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. a division opponent.

KC enters 10-1, most recently holding on for the tighter-than-expected 30-27 victory at Carolina. It's interestingly lost five straight ATS. 

Look for the short week, the national stage and the elements to also all play a factor here in helping to contribute in pushing this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Miami Ohio/Bowling Green.

Bowling Green is 7-4 after five straight wins. The Green Falcons have seen the total go UNDER in three straight after their most recent 38-13 win over Ball State, but note that looking back Miami Ohio has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Miami Ohio is 7-4 overall as well and it's won six in a row. The RedHawks have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, which is clearly why the general betting public has been quick to jump on another lower-scoring battle.

But with so much on the line as far as positioning is concerned in the conference, I'm expecting these teams to finally put some points on the board.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Dolphins/Packers.

I'm expecting a defensive battle in the night-cap on Thursday night.

Just a great situational play here. Green Bay is 8-3 and off back-to-back victories. Note that the Packers though have interestingly seen the total dive below the posted number in four of their last five when playing on six or less days rest.

When these teams played last in 2022, the Packers managed the 26-22 win in Miami and I predict Thursday's contest will be even tighter.

The Dolphins are 5-6. Tua's returned and they've won three in a row, and also covered in four straight. Five of their last six have flown OVER the number, but it's also interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after three or more straight victories in a row.

I'm expecting the short week, the later start, combined with all of the other above-listed factors/trends to lead to a lower-scoring UNDER once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOW on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane.

This is an important game for both sides and I'm expecting a really defensive battle because of it.

Memphis is 9-2 and looking to keep the momentum rollinghere after a 53-18 win over UAB last time. Which was in fact two weeks ago. Look for rest to lead to "rust" here for this offense.

Tulane is 9-2 and off a 35-0 win over Navy two weeks ago. The Green Wave and Tigers are fighting for top spot here and the last time they tangled, the Green Wave won by a score of 31-21 last October. The total went UNDER the number in that one, and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score this season as well.

With so much on the line and here on the National Stage, everything points to a tight, lower-scoring UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOM on the OVER Cards/Hawks.

Seattle broke a two-game slide with a crucial 20-17 in at San Francisco last weekend and I believe it'll carry that momentum over here and put the pressure on the 6-4 Cardinals to keep pace.

Arizona is off four straight wins, most recently beating the Jets 31-6 at home last weekend. In their last road game three weeks ago, they came out on top 28-27 at Miami, and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well.

It was a do or die game for the Hawks last weekend, but that victory will mean nothing if they can't also deliver the goods here at home vs. the Cards.

I just anticipate a much faster pace than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOW on the OVER Vikes/Bears.

I think this one sets up to be a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring battle.

Minnesota is 8-2 and off three straight victories. The Vikes have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, but note that dating to last year Minnesota has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bears are 4-6 after four straight losses. All four games have gone UNDER the number. 

But with a tough Thanksgiving game at Detroit on Thursday, it's now or never for Chicago.

With each team pushing the pace like I'm suspecting they will, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Texans/Cowboys.

For a couple of different key reasons, I'm expecting a "shootout" between these two non-conference opponents, rather than a lower-scoring grind-it-out battle. 

Houston is 6-4, but it's off consecutive losses, most recently the 26-23 setback at home to Detroit. 

The Cowboys are beyond desperate after losing four straight and now most recently also losing the services of starting QB Dak Prescott. I view this is a rallying point for the offense though. For this week anyways. Expect to see a mixture of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance under center.

Long story short, look for these two offenses to push the pace and for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV TOM on the UNDER Bengals/Chargers.

Each team has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here on Sunday night than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Just overall a really great situational play in my opinion. 

The Bengals are 4-6 and have been trading wins/losses over their last four games. They let a really important one slip away in last week's 35-34 setback at Baltimore. Close but no cigar, and Burrow and company are going to be hard-pressed in my estimation to come out here with the same positive attitude and hype. I predict a more conservative game-plan this week from Cincinnati. 

Note though that the Bengals have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Chargers are 6-3 and have won three in a row. Their defense has been superb all year, but especially over this recent surge, conceding a total of 35 points in that span.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a lower-scoring defensive UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Ravens/Steelers.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating more of a defensive battle for a couple of different key reasons.

Baltimore is 7-3 after back-to-back wins. Despite last week's 35-34 win over the Bengals, note tha the Ravens have still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Pittsburgh is 7-2 after four straight wins. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight. 

But the last time these teams played against each other last year, Pittsburgh won by a score of 17-10.

I say this O/U line is elevated, and the public is a little too quick this time to blindly back another high-scoring affair.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC North TOM on the OVER Packers/Bears.

I'm expecting each side to push the pace and for this total to ultimately fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Green Bay is 6-3 after last week's 24-14 divisional home loss to Detroit. Note though that the Packers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five following a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog. The Packers have had a week off to prepare for this one as well, so look for Jordan Love to be a lot more prepared this time around. 

Chicago is just 4-5 after three straight losses. It got rid of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after last week's 19-3 loss to New England. The Bears though still have a legit shot to make the playoffs, but they can't afford another divisional loss.

This is a great situational play. With each side pushing the pace like I'm suspecting, everything points to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOW on the UNDER Syracuse/Cal.

This one sets up great from a number of different angles to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout in my opinion.

Cal is a sizeable fav at home here as it enters 5-4 after back-to-back victories, most recently a 46-36 win a Wake Forest. Dating to last year though Cal has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Syracuse is 6-3. One week after claiming eligibility in a 38-31 OT win over Virginia Tech, the Orange came up short in last week's 37-31 road loss at BC. Syracuse though has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four off a SU/ATS road loss.

I'm expecting Kyle McCord and this Orange offense to play more conservatively here on the road vs. Cals No. 17 overall ranked defense. The Bears though are just 77th in red zone offense this season.

Everything points to the UNDER as the savvy call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* VALUE PLAY on the UNDER FAU/Temple.

I love the way this one sets up to more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. 

FAU is 2-7. Temple is 2-7. Neither team has anything to play for here. Temple has officially already thrown in the towel on its season after last week's pathetic 52-6 loss at Tulane.

FAU fell 49-14 at ECU. The Pirates are terrible defensively, just last week allowing 31 points to 3-7 Tulsa, but the Owls' offense has also raised the white flag.

With each side going through the motions like I suspect, everthing does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call in this matchup.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER UCLA/Washington.

We've reached the point of the season where there is so much going on, that I'll have to keep my analysis very succinct. 

UCLA has is 4-5 after three straight wins, and a Bowl Berth is now in its reach in its first year in the Big Ten. Note that dating to last year though the Bruins have seen the total go OVER in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched, and for the most part they definitely are, looking at their numbers on both ends of the field confirm that. The Bruins are running out of opportunities and can't sit back and wait for Washington to make the first mistake. Instead, as the dog they'll have to push the pace from start to finish.

Washington is 5-5 after going just 1-3 in its last four. It's off a listless 35-6 loss at PSU. Dating to last year though the Huskies have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the above-listed numbers/trends all point to this being a very wide-open offensive "shootout."

This nubmer is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER UNT/UTSA.

We've reached the point of the season where there is so much going on, that I'll have to keep my analysis very succinct. 

UNT is 5-4 after three straight losses. It's running out of time to become eligible. It is coming off a 14-3 loss to Army, but prevoiusly had seen the total go OVER in six straight. Clearly the Mean Green are going to be able to move the ball much more effectively this week vs. UTSA, but note that UNT has still seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU losses in a row dating to last year.

UTSA is 4-5 and it's traded wins/losses over its last four games. Despite 44-36 win vs. Memphis last week which saw the total go OVER the number for a fourth straight time, note that the Road Runners have seen the total go UNDER the number still in five of their last seven dating to last yar after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

This is a big game for each team and I'm expecting it to be a lot more defensive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the UNDER Washington/Philadelphia.

It's a big matchup for first place in the NFC East tonight in the first matchup between these two division rivals. 

They'll play again in the Nation's capital on December 22nd. Either way, the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this being a defensive battle on Thursday night.

Washington just had its three-game win streak snapped in a tight 28-27 loss at home to Pittsburgh. Dating to last year though the Commanders have seen the total dip below the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Philadelphia has won five straight and looked dominant on both ends of the field in last week's 34-6 divisional victory over the Cowboys. 

I expect the Eagles' defense to be just as dominant this weekend.

In a contest that I see being decided by field position and the men in the trenches, I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOM on the UNDER ECU/Tulsa.

I base my picks on many different things. Sometimes I look at every single angle possible, including individual player matchups, coaching tendencies, trends and scheduling.

Other times I employ the "Keep It Simple Stupid," or KISS method. And that's the case here. 

It's just a great overall "situational" play. 

ECU is 5-4 and on the cusp of eligibility after back-to-back high-scoring wins. The Pirates have in fact seen the total go OVER in four straight, but note that despite the total eclipsing the posted number in last week's 49-14 home win over FAU, the Pirates have still seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Tulsa has its back against the wall after a 59-21 loss at UAB last time out. The Golden Hurricane are now 3-6 with three games remaining to move to .500. They have to run the table, which clearly isn't going to happen. 

But with so much on the line here from each side, I say that everything from a situational stand point does indeed point to this being a lower-scoring defensive UNDER once its all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOW on the UNDER Ball State/Buffalo.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting more of a defensive battle finally on Tuesday. 

It's a great situational play overall. Ball State is now 3-6 after a 27-21 setback at home to Miami Ohio last week. The Cardinals only have three games remaining in the season, and need to sweep for a shot at Bowl-eligibility. 

Buffalo snapped a two-game slide with a 41-30 win over Akron and at 5-4, the Bulls need just one more win to become eligible. What better spot than right here at home than against Ball State?

That said, I'm not sure if Buffalo will be able to cover this spread vs. this desperate visiting side.

But note that the Bulls have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

The last thing that the Cardinals can do is turn this into a shootout with Buffalo and with each side putting an added emphasis onto the run game like I believe they will to limit mistakes and alleviate pressure, while also taking into account the rest of the above listed factors/trends, then the UNDER is the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIV TOM on the UNDER 49ers/Bucs.

I really love the way this one sets up from a "situational" stand point. If you've followed me for any length of time then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper. I'm also a contrarian at heart and while the majority is expecting these teams to post another high-scoring after posting several "overs" of the last few weeks, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

San Fran has been trading wins/losses over its last six games. Off a 30-24 win over Dallas last week, it will be eager to reverse that trend this weekend. The 49ers have also seen the total go Over/Under the last six games as well, after it eclipsed the posted number last time out, look for this O/U trend to continue here with another lower-scoring battle.

The Bucs are now desperate to snap a three-game slide after last weeks 30-24 OT loss at KC. Tampa Bay has seen the total go OVER in six straight, but note that despite last week's total going OVER the number, Tampa has still seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven dating to last year after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

It's a crucial game for both sides. With each team putting an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense, everything points to this game being decided by field-position, and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOM on the UNDER Denver/KC.

I really love the way this one sets up from a "situational" stand point. If you've followed me for any length of time then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper. I'm also a contrarian at heart and while the majority is expecting these teams to post another high-scoring after posting several "overs" of the last few weeks, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

Denver is off the 41-10 loss at Baltimore last weekend and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency in this one as well. The Broncos have now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five dating to last year after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

KC is 8-0. It's off the 30-24 OT win over Tampa last weekend. When these divisional opponents played last October 29th though, Denver won by a score of 24-9.

I anticipate a similar final combined score here as well, where field position becomes a big determining factor for the winning side.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ULTRA-EARLY TOTAL on the UNDER Giants/Panthers.

I'm banking on a lower-scoring UNDER between New York and Carolina in Munich on Sunday morning.

The Giants are off a 27-22 defeat to the Commanders, while Carolina managed a 23-22 win over New Orleans in its last outing. 

New York's season is officially over at 2-7. We don't see the team putting up much of an effort here. Overall they average only 191.4 YPG through the air, and we can't see them reaching that mark here in Europe.

Carolina is 2-7, and its season is over already as well despite last week's win. Carolina only averages 176.6 YPG through the air.

With each team looking to establish the run while on offense like I suspect, the correct call as far as the total is concerned is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER Michigan/Indiana.

Michigan is 5-4. It needs just one more win to become eligible. Overall though the defending champs are just 1-3 in their last four and off a 38-17 loss at home to No. 1 Oregon.

Now it travels to 9-0 Indiana, with the Hoosiers off a 47-10 win at MSU. 

This is a big game for both teams. But the Wolverines are up against another really difficult defense, as Indiana has conceded just 34 combined points over its last three victories.

Everything points to this one being decided by field position and by the men in the trenches. 

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Iowa/UCLA.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating a much more defensive battle on Friday night between these division rivals.

Iowa is 6-3 and now eligible after last week's 42-10 win over Wisconsin. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight, but a major mental letdown is imminent after qualifying in my estimation and now hitting the road after two straight home games.

No such luxury for UCLA though, which needs to win three games out of its next four to go 6-6. That however will be easier said than done with games at Washington and vs. USC and Fresno State to end the year.

UCLA struggled against Minnesota here in its last home game back on October 12th, falling 21-17, and now facing a similar style offense, everything points to a similar final combined score.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Bengals/Ravens.

A fantastic situational play on the UNDER here. It's a big divisional game on a short week and while each team has played to several higher-scoring games this season, everything finally points to a very defensive-affair on Thursday night.

The Bengals are 4-5 and have won three of their last four. They're off a 41-24 win over the Raiders. In their last road game they won 21-14 at Cleveland and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in this one. 

The Ravens are 6-3 and they've won three of their last four as well, most recently a 41-10 win over Denver. Baltimore has seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that dating to last year that the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. 

With the majority going one way on this total, I'm going the other.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER NIU/WMU.

I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring UNDER, rather than a high-scoring shootout with some classic MACTION here on Wednesday night in November.

Northern Illinois is 4-4 and running out of time to become eligible. It's lost two straight as well, most recently a 25-23 setback at Ball State. It won 24-0 over WMU at home last year at this time, and while I expect a bit more scoring here, I do indeed believe we'll have another really defensive battle this season as well.

Western Michigan is now 5-3 after four straight wins, it has seen the total go OVER in five straight now after last week's 52-21 win over Kent State. But that fact Lenny is important to note as the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row dating to last season.

With the majority expecting another shootout, I'm going the other way believe that the numbers/trends all clearly point to a lower-scoring defensive UNDER in this matchup on Wednesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOY on the UNDER Bowling Green/CMU.

This is a great situational play on the "under" in my opinion. I love betting College Football at this time of year, because evaluating emotion and motivation are two situational factors that I excel at.

This is a big game for both teams. Bowling Green is 4-4 and running out of time to become Bowl-eligible. Same for 3-5 CMU. The Chips are off a 46-7 loss to Miami Ohio, while Bowling Green beat Toledo 41-26.

The Falcons' defense has 20 sacks this season and I think that CMU will likely once again have difficulties moving the ball today.

Bowling Green only allows 22 PPG, and I can't see the home side coming close to that.

That said, in a contest that I see being decided by field position and by the men in the trenches, everything does indeed point to a lower-scoring UNDER as far as the final combined score is concerned in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Lions/Packers.

Detroit is 6-1. QB Jared Goff is putting up huge numbers during the Lions' five-game win streak, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here in this important divisional matchup.

The Lions dominating the way they are is a bit of s surprise, but Detroit was one of the favored to win the NFC. 

I think Green Bay at 6-2 is more of a surprise. The Packers have won four straight. Green Bay has their bye-week next weekend.

These offenses have been firing on all cylinders, and the public is quick to back another high-scoring affair, but I say we'll see a much more defensive affair here between these two surging rivals.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the UNDER Broncos/Ravens.

As a situational capper, I constantly keep my eyes open for these types of games. With the majority of the early money once again expecting a higher-scoring shootout here between two teams that have played to plenty of high-scoring OVERs of late, this pick also definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Denver is now 5-3 after back-to-back victories. Granted, they've come against the Saints and the Panthers, so we have to take Bo Nix's results with a "grain of salt." And with a game at the Chiefs next weekend, the Broncos have to be careful in this spot to not to be tempted to look past to that high-profile divisional contest.

Baltimore has seen the total fly OVER in four straight, but it had its five-game win streak come to an end in last week's 29-24 upset loss at Cleveland. That fact though is important to us here as bettors though, as note that dating to last season the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite.

I'm expecting this contest to be decided by field position and by the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOM on the OVER UNC/Florida State.

Here is a great "situational" play on what I anticipate will be a wide-open shootout.

Clearly, the Seminoles have nothing to lose here at this point (except another game!), as they enter well out of contention at 1-7. They're coming off three straight UNDERS after last week's 36-14 loss at Miami, but that's significant to note as dating to last season Florida State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight (75% of the time) after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

UFC finally broke its four-game slide with a big 41-14 win at UVA last weekend. I had UNC in that one. The offense was firing on all cylindres and there's no reason not to believe that won't be the case again here as the Tar Heels try to take advantage and earn a valuable win in their quest for a Bowl berth. 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Memphis/UTSA.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring outcome finally here early on Saturday in Week 10.

Memphis is now 7-1 after its most recent 33-28 win over Charlotte. It's seen the total go OVER in two straight. Both games were at home vs. UNT and Charlotte. In their last road game at USF, the Tigers won 21-3. I expect a similar sort of game-plan here in Week 10 at UTSA.

The Roadrunners are now 3-5 after a tight 46-45 loss at Tulsa last weekend. While UTSA has indeed seen the total fly OVER in three straight now, note that dating to last season the Roadrunners have seen the total dip below the number in three of their last four following three or more OVERs in a row.

A great situational play here on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOY on the UNDER Tulane/Charlotte.

As primiarly a "situational" capper, we've hit the "meat and potatoes" part of the season and this one falls right in my "wheel house."

It's a big game for each side, but with the majority expecting another high-scoring shootout, I actually feel the value swings the other way here between two teams that I expect will push the pace from start to finish.

The Green Wave are now eligible after moving to 6-2 with their fifth straight win. They've been alternating low-scoring games with high-scoring ones, and after last week's 45-37 shootout at UNT, I expect this strong pattern to continue here on the road vs. the 49ers.

Charlotte will be desperate to snap a two-game slide and to get back on track sitting at 3-5. The 49ers have seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but that's significant to note for us as Charlotte has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

I expect field position to play a bit part in determining the winner in this one and I overall expect this pace to produce a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOM on the OVER Louisiana Tech/Sam Houston.

As primarily a situational capper, this one sets up well to be more of a high-scoring "shootout," rather than a lower-scoring "duel" in my opinion.

Louisiana Tech is 3-4 and in need of some victories to become bowl-eligible. 

It's been trading wins/losses over its last four games. It's off the 14-10 win over UTEP, but previously fell 33-30 in OT at NMSU. I see a similar final combined score here as well on the road at Sam Houston.

The Bearcats are now eligible after their 10-7 win at FIU last weekend. But when these teams played last year, Sam Houston posted the 42-27 road win at Louisiana Tech, and I'm predicting a similar final outcome here as well.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Cards/Fish.

Arizona is still alive at 3-4 following last weekend's 17-15 home win over the Chargers. 

The Dolphins have lost four of their last five and they'll be desperate to snap that slide.

Each team is desperate for a win, and I'm expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish.

The Cardinals offense is improving with their young receiving corps, which is good news because Arizona ranks among the worst in most defensive categories.

Tua Tagovailoa returns to the Miami offense, and I think he'll make a huge impact right away for this underperforming unit.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the OVER Utah/Houston.

Utah is 4-3 after three straight losses. Dating to last year though the Utes have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Houston is 2-5 and now running out of chances to earn a bowl. The Cougars are off the 42-14 loss at KU. 

Utah is off the 13-7 loss to TCU. Both teams' offenses have struggled to this point, but I expect each side to really be opening up the playbook here. Utah's Isaac Wilson has thrown for 1,029 yards, seven TD's and eight INT's.

Overall the Utes are conceding 20.5 PPG. That's good news for Houston QB Donovan Smith, who has 867 yards passing, four TD's and eight INT's. The Cougars have struggled on the defensive thoug, conceding 30.2 PPG.

With both teams hungry to break out here after frustrating performances, I'm expecting this total to fly well OVER the number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Rutgers/USC.

Rutgers is 4-3 after three straight losses. It needs two more wins to qualify for a Bowl and time is running out. Its last two games have flown over the number. Note that Rutgers has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row dating to last season.

USC enters in even more dire straights, on a three-game losing streak as well, but sitting at 3-4 now after last week's 29-28 loss at Maryland as a seven-point favorite.

That result is also important to take note of, as dating to last season the Trojans have seen the total dip below the posted number in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were a favorite.

The Knights and QB Athan Kaliakmanis average are only averaging 26.6 PPG, but make up for it on the other end by conceding just 22.3.

That's good news for hte Trojans who are averaging 30.3 PPG, while allowing 22. QB Miller Moss is now Caleb Williams and continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOW on the OVER Georgia Southern/ODU.

Georgia Southern needs just one more win to become eligible, sitting at 5-2, while ODU has some work to do at 3-4. With each team pushing the pace like I'm expecting, the OVER is the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

The Monarchs come in off a quality 24-14 win over Texas State, where dual-threat QB Colton Joseph threw for 130 yards, while also rushing for 111 yards and three TD's.

Georgia Southern is off the 28-14 win over James Madison and I think the Eagles will be able to duplicate that offensive performance. Overall the Eagles average 32.9 PPG, while conceding 28.1.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Liberty/Kennesaw State.

I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Liberty is 5-0 SU, but after a 31-24 OT win over FIU at home as a 16-point favorite last time out, we can expect Liberty to not get caught looking past this opportunity as a huge favorite on the road.

The Flames' defense has looked shaky the last two weeks, giving up 48 points to a couple of pretty weak teams.

At 0-6, The Owls would also qualify as a weak team. Kennesaw State is off the 14-5 loss at Middle Tennessee State, but in its previous game it fell 63-24 to Jacksonville State.

Look for Liberty to run up the score in the first half so that the second unit can get time in the second. Also look for the Owls to get plenty of points in "garbage time."

A great situational play on the OVER. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOW on the UNDER UTEP/Louisiana Tech.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I think these bottom-feeders will finally play to more of a defensive battle on Tuesday night.

UTEP is just 1-6. It won't be going bowling. It is however coming in off its first win of the season in last week's 30-21 home victory over FIU as 7-point dogs.

The Miners have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that dating to last season UTEP has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Over their previous four games UTEP's high was 21 points vs. Sam Houston State, but I have a hard time seeing the Miners even reach that amount this weekend.

Louisiana Tech is just 2-4 and it's off a 33-30 OT loss at New Mexico State as a 12-point favorite. That's also significant to take note of though, as the Bulldogs have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four off a SU/ATS road loss as favorites.

The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this being a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOY on the UNDER Ravens/Bucs.

After starting the year 0-2, the Ravens have posted four straight victories. Five of their six games have flown OVER the number. 

Despite that though, Baltimore has been the most dangerous offensively with its run game, led by dual-threat QB LaMar Jackson. With the majority of the general betting public going "one way," we're going to "go the other" here as far as the total is concerned.

The Bucs are 4-2 and four of their six have gone OVER the number. that includes in three straight after last week's 51-27 win over the Saints. Note though that dating to last year Tampa has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bucs are ranked sixth in rushing. 

These defenses are also really underrated as well in my opinion.

When you add up all of these factors, I say this O/U line is now TOO large, and the value has now swung the other way.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Panthers/Commanders.

Two teams in need of a victory collide on Sunday afternoon in the nation's capital and in my opinion, this O/U line is too high, making the UNDER the best wager in this particular matchup in my opinion.

Carolina is 1-5 after last week's 38-20 loss at Atlanta. It's off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight. This though is by far the largest total its had posted to it so far, with the previous high being 46.5 in Week 4 vs. Cincinnati. This Week 7 total is now TOO high in my opinion.

Washington had its four game win streak come to an end in last week's 30-23 loss at the Ravens, sending it to 4-2 on the season. The Commanders have also seen the total go OVER in four straight.

With the general betting public quick to back another high-scoring affair, I think the books have baited the majority.

While they go one way, we'll go the other on this total.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the OVER Eagles/Giants.

The Eagles are 3-2. They've traded wins/losses since the start of the year. After last week's 20-16 win over the Browns, they'll be hoping to snap this streak on the road in this important early season divisional battle.

They say divisional battles are the most important, and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. At 2-4, that's the truth this weekend for the Giants, who have also traded wins/losses since Week 2. After last week's 17-7 home loss to a desperate Bengals side, they'll be looking for this streak to continue. Note. after falling 20-15 to Dalls in Week 4, the Giants the responded with an explosive 29-20 win at Seattle.

New York is 0-3 at home. It'll be pushing the pace from start to finish here, in what essentially becomes a "do or die" game for the Giants.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOY on the UNDER Ball State/Vanderbilt.

Everyone in the Nation suddenly is a Vanderbilt fan after the Commodores beat Alabama in a huge upset.

Vandy then followed that victory up with another upset over Kentucky as a 14-point dog. 

Vanderbilt only allowed 13 points to the Wildcats and I expect that defensive momentum to get carried over here. The Commodores are a huge favorite here, and typically I'll never play such large spreads.

But the total looks WAY off to me. WAY too high. Ball State is just 2-4 and while ALL SIX of its games have flown OVER the number this season, after just their second win of the year in last week's 37-35 victory at Kent. An imminent letdown appears imminent though. 

Just can't see the Cardinals moving the ball effectively at all against this improved Vanderbilt side. Don't see the Commodores keeping the foot on the gas in the second half either.

While the majority of the public goes one way with this total, I'm going the other. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Miami/Louisville.

Miami is off a bye after its 39-38 road win at Cal. I say the bye could not have come at a worse time though and that the momentum from that improbable victory is now gone for sure.

Louisville is off a 24-20 win over UVA on the road this past Saturday, unable to cover the 7-point spread. However, I envision a similar final combined score in this contest as well.

The Hurricanes enter 6-0 and with two full weeks to prepare for this contest. Miami is so far averaging 47.7 PPG, but it only concedes 18.8.

Louisville is 4-2 and it averages 36.2 PPG, while conceding just 19.7.

These two teams now face two of the best defenses they've faced all season and in my opinion, this dynamic will help in pushing this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOM on the OVER FSU/Duke.

Duke saw its five-game win streak to open the season come to an end in last week's 24-14 loss at Georgia Tech as a ten-point dog. 

The Blue Devils have exceeded expectations and are just a win away from becoming eligible. After last week's low-scoring loss though, and two in a row, I think this O/U line is now a bit TOO low.

FSU has been a disaster a 1-5 this season, most recently falling 29-13 at Clemson. The Tigers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last week's loss, but that's significant to note here, as looking back sees the Seminoles having seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

FSU had to go with Brock Glenn last weekend under center, and he was 23 of 41 with 228 yards, two TD's and one INT. Look for him to be better here though with that awkward contest out of the way.

That said, the Seminoles' 22-0 run in this series is clearly in Jeopardy, as the Blue Devils will look to rebound off their first loss and end this long streak of futility. Maalik Murphy had 205 yards passing and two TD's, but will also benefit this week playing against this suspect FSU defense.

I look for this total to fly OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL INSIDER on the OVER Bills/Jets.

It's a huge game for both sides. The Jets are now 2-3 after back-to-back losses, most recently falling 23-17 at Minnesota.

That prompted the franchise to fire head coach Robert Saleh and because of that, I'm expecting this New York offense to finally show up here on Monday night. These types of situations work one of two ways. Either the team responds, or it bombs. I'm banking on the former being the case!

Jeff Ullbrich will serve as interim head coach, meaning Aaron Rodgers will have even more control over things moving forward. I say that's a good thing, as far as this contest being a high-scoring one.

These teams split out last year, each winning a low-scoring game at home, but everything points to more of a shootout here in the opener this season.

Buffalo comes in equally motivated after two straight losses. Josh Allen was out to his best start ever to a season but has once again taken a step back.

But with these two gunslingers going head-to-head and playing with giant chips on their respective shoulders, I'm finally anticipating these offenses to post a productive game.

And because of that, I'm on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOY on the OVER Chargers/Broncos.

These AFC West Rivals are in need of a win and in what I anticipate will be a highly-competitive battle, I'm going to suggest grabbing the points.

Denver has won five straight at home in this series, and three straight overall over the Chargers.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Justin Herbert and the Chargers who were off back-to-back losses.

Denver enters on top form though after three straight victories. QB Bo Nix has looked progressively better each week and that progression will continue here on Sunday afternoon as well.

Look for these two offenses to finally catch fire and for this total to easily blast past the low number.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Washington/Baltimore.

Both of these teams have been playing to some high-scoring games to open the season, but I anticipate a much lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Washington is off a 34-13 win over Cleveland last week and it's won four in a row.

Baltimore is off a 41-38 OT win over Cincinnati last Sunday and it's now won three straight.

Most bettors are thinking that Jayden Daniels and LaMar Jackson are ready for an epic battle here, but these under-rated defenses are poised to "steal the show" in my estimation. While the majority goes one way, we'll go the other.

Washington allows 23 PPG, while Baltimore concedes 25.2. 

Dating to last season the Commanders have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOY on the OVER Southern Miss/Louisiana Montroe.

Two teams from the West Division of the Sunbelt collide, with Southern Miss desperate for a win at 1-4 after last week's 23-13 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, and Louisiana-Monroe entering at 4-1 after last week's 21-19 win over James Madison as a 17-point dog.

Both teams have seen the total go UNDER in four of five this year, including two straight, but expect each to open things up offensively and for this total to easily eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

USM has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU losses in a row. So far the Golden Eagles have been poor on both ends of the field, averaging 15.8 PPG, while conceding 31.4. Four different men have seen time under center, with Tate Rodemaker seeing the most action with 580 yards passing, four TD's and four INT's. 

Bryant Vincent's new team looks good early on, averaging and conceding 19.8 PPG. Aidan Armenta is in line for a big performance here though vs. the poor defense of Southern Miss.

Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the visitors to keep it competitive down the stretch.

Either way, this number is too low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOY on the UNDER New Mexico State/Jacksonville State.

New Mexico State is just 1-4 and off four straight losses. It'll be eager to reverse its fortunes here after its most recent 50-40 setback at New Mexico last week. The Aggies have been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones, and I believe this pattern continues here on Wednesday.

Interestingly, dating to last season, New Mexico State has also seen the total fly OVER the number in four of its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. RB Seth McGowan, who has 334 rushing yards and two rushing TD's, will be leaned upon heavily here. 

These defenses are underrated here and this O/U line is a little too high.

The play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOM on the UNDER Saints/Chiefs.

A rather lower total here on Monday Night Football, but not low enough in my opinion.

New Orleans is now 2-2 after back-to-back losses, and a Nationally televised game vs. the two-time defending champs on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked obviously.

The Saints have managed to post 36 combined points over their last two games, and it won't get any easier here in KC vs. this opportunistic Chiefs' defense that has gotten better as the season has progressed.

KC is 17-10 after last week's impressive 17-10 win at the Chargers.

After back-to-back road victories and now returning home, we think the Chiefs will be able to once again dictate the flow of this contest.

With the majority of the bettors flocking to the OVER, I'm going the other way because of all the reasons listed above.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOY on the UNDER Cards/49ers.

Both of these divisional opponents have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but now here in Week 5 I'm predicting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Arizona is just 1-3, and while three of four have flown OVER the number, the Cards have managed just 37 points combined over their last three games.

Their offense is going to be tested here on the road vs. this underrated 49ers' defense, which finally got back on track in last week's 30-13 home win over the Pats.

CMC is sidelined, and that makes this 49ers offense less dynamic as well.

The overall situation points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Pats.

Here's a great situational play. I base most of my O/U picks (in every sport), on "situations."

Miami is 1-3 and in desperate need of a win after three straight losses. Last week it was a 31-12 setback at Tennessee. 

New England is just 1-3 as well after three straight losses, most recently a 30-13 setback at San Francisco.

With each side pushing the pace like I'm suspecting to get back on track in this now crucial early divisional contest, everything points to these teams opening things up on offense and for the total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Tyler Huntley should be better this week for the Dolphins for sure. He has lots to work with on offense and will be more acclimated now.

The Pats had three costly turnovers last weekend. QB Jacob Brissett though has been given the green light here to try and maintain his starting role: “At this point, Jacoby is our starting quarterback,” NE head coach Jerod Mayo said. “I haven’t watched any film or anything like that. He’s been a great leader. ... We’ve got to watch the film. We’ve got a long flight to go back and watch the film and we’re always evaluating every single position.”

Look for these two desperate teams to fly well OVER this low number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOY on the OVER Hawaii/SDSU.

Hawaii is 2-2 and SDSU is 1-3.

The Aztecs have seen the total go 1-3 to the UNDER, while Hawaii has seen the total go 0-4 to the UNDER.

Despite these teams having played mostly low-scoring defensive battles so far this season, I firmly believe now that there's an overreaction on the total here in Week 6 and that these two teams are finally poised for more of an offensive "shootout." 

Hawaii is off am impressive 36-7 win over Northern Iowa, scoring in every quarter. I believe the Rainbow Warriors and QB Brayden Schager, who had 374 yards passing and four TD's, will carry that offensive momentum over here.

SDSU is off the 22-21 road loss at Central Michigan and has now lost three straight. But dating to last year the Aztecs have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after three or more SU losses in a row.

With Hawaii pushing the pace offensively from start to finish like I suspect, and the Aztecs forced to keep paced, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER UCF/Florida.

UCF is 3-1 and Florida is 2-2.

The Golden Knights have seen the total go OVER in all four of their games, while the Gators have seen the total go OVER in three of four.

Bettors are quick to back another high-scoring affair here with the majority of the early money on the "over," so this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

UCF though is off its first loss of the year, a humbling 48-21 setback to Colorado at home as an 11.5-point favorite. And that fact is significant for us to take note of here, as the Golden Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite dating to last season.

The Gators are off the 45-28 win over Mississippi State, but I expect their QB Graham Hertz to have a more difficult time moving the ball today vs. this determined Knights side. 

I expect a few turnovers and for field position to play a big part in the outcome of this contest and because of that, I'm expecting the total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER UCLA/Penn State.

UCLA is 1-3 and Penn State is 4-0. The Bruins have seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year. But note that dating to last season the Bruins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row.

The Nittany Lions have seen the total go UNDER in three of four as well, including in two straight. 

The Bruins lost 34-13 to Oregon last weekend, with QB Ethan Garbers having a pretty garbage game, throwing 118 yards and two INTs. 

Kaytron Allen was a standout with 102 yards rushing and a TD in the Nittany Lions 21-7 win over the Illini last week.

If the Nittany Lions are going to cover this massive spread, they're going to have run up this score. Look for UCLA to get some garbage points down the stretch and for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Bills/Ravens.

While most are anticipating a high-scoring affair here, I believe we'll be in for more of a defensive one. 

The Ravens have seen the total go OVER in all three games this year, but note that dating to last season the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Buffalo is 3-0 SU and it's seen the total go OVER in two of three. This is the start of three straight on the road for the Bills.

Josh Allen and the Bills have looked great offensively, but I've been more impressed with Buffalo's defense, which is conceding 16 PPG. 

LaMar Jackson and the Ravens earned the high-scoring win over the Cowboys last weekend, but clearly the last thing the home side will want to do is turn this into a "shootout" with Allen.

Instead look for Jackson to manage this game while on offense.

These teams always play to tight, lower-scoring affairs, and everything once again points to that happening again this weekend.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV TOY on the OVER Steelers/Colts.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the OVER, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU, and it has seen all three games go UNDER the number so far. Note though, dating to late yar the Steelers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. A new team and look, but still a noteworthy stat.

The Colts are 1-2 after their 21-16 win here at home over Chicago last weekend. Two of three have dipped below the number this year for Indianapolis.

But as I say, I'm anticipating these teams to easily clear this really low total. Obviously the Steelers offense has been great to this point, but I say that Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will be able to consistently move the chains today. Taylor has completed a league-worst 49 percent of his passes, but he does lead the NFL in air yards per completion and explosive passes of 40-plus yards. 

I think these defenses can set up these offenses in some prime short-yardage situations as well.

It would be easy to look at these team's early numbers and automatically assume that we'll have the lowest-scoring game of the season here. And that is in fact what the majority of the public thinks, and what the oddsmakers are all trying to lead us to believe.

But I say these offenses finally start producing here in Week 4, as these up-and-coming quarterbacks duel it out on Sunday afternoon.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER Mississippi State/Texas.

These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating much more of a defensive battle this weekend. 

Mississippi State is 1-3 after last week's 45-28 home loss to Florida. the Bulldogs have lost three straight SU/ATS, which is significant to note, as Mississippi State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after three or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

Texas is 4-0 SU/ATS and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-3 win over ULM. Note though that dating back to last season the Longhorns have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bulldogs are giving up 31 PPG, but I just don't see the Longhorns running up the score in this one, especially with a neutral-site game vs. the Sooners after this.

Texas needs to win this game, but it just as importantly needs to do so without sustaining any major injuries.

The Bulldogs have no hope here, and I don't expect their offense to do much.

A great overall "situational" play, as everything adds up to this one being a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Maryland/Indiana.

Maryland is 4-1 and Indiana is 4-0. This is a big Big Ten matchup and in my opinion, despite each having played to several higher-scoring games to open the year, this one will turn out to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Maryland is averaging 34.8 PPG, while conceding just 16.8. Billy Edwards has been solid to open the season, and the Terps only loss came in a 27-24 setback to Michigan State.  

Indiana is averaging 50.5 PPG, while allowing only 9.25. Kurtis Rourke has the Hoosiers perfect so far through the first four weeks, but neither teams has truly been tested to this point.

These defenses have been great and I think it's the offenses that take a minor step back here in Week 5.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jags/Bills.

The 0-2 Jags will be pushing the pace here after falling 18-13 at home as 3.5-point favs to the Browns last weekend. 

The Bills cruised to a 31-10 win over Miami and there's no reason not to think they can't keep that offensive momentum rolling here.

Clearly, Trevor Lawrence is going to be given the green light here to try and get this offense rolling as the Jags look to avoid the much-dreaded 0-3 hole to start the season. 

Over two games though Lawrence has 382 passing yards, one TD and no INT's. The Bills struggled against the pass with Arizona here in Week 1 and that's going to again be the case here vs. this now desperate visiting side in my estimation.

The Jags will also have their hands full with Josh Allen, who has 371 yards passing and a 3:0 TD:INT to start the season.

With these two competent QB's going head-to-head, I say this total flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP