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This is a 10* AFC WEST TOY on the OVER Chargers/Broncos.

These AFC West Rivals are in need of a win and in what I anticipate will be a highly-competitive battle, I'm going to suggest grabbing the points.

Denver has won five straight at home in this series, and three straight overall over the Chargers.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Justin Herbert and the Chargers who were off back-to-back losses.

Denver enters on top form though after three straight victories. QB Bo Nix has looked progressively better each week and that progression will continue here on Sunday afternoon as well.

Look for these two offenses to finally catch fire and for this total to easily blast past the low number.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Washington/Baltimore.

Both of these teams have been playing to some high-scoring games to open the season, but I anticipate a much lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Washington is off a 34-13 win over Cleveland last week and it's won four in a row.

Baltimore is off a 41-38 OT win over Cincinnati last Sunday and it's now won three straight.

Most bettors are thinking that Jayden Daniels and LaMar Jackson are ready for an epic battle here, but these under-rated defenses are poised to "steal the show" in my estimation. While the majority goes one way, we'll go the other.

Washington allows 23 PPG, while Baltimore concedes 25.2. 

Dating to last season the Commanders have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOY on the OVER Southern Miss/Louisiana Montroe.

Two teams from the West Division of the Sunbelt collide, with Southern Miss desperate for a win at 1-4 after last week's 23-13 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, and Louisiana-Monroe entering at 4-1 after last week's 21-19 win over James Madison as a 17-point dog.

Both teams have seen the total go UNDER in four of five this year, including two straight, but expect each to open things up offensively and for this total to easily eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

USM has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU losses in a row. So far the Golden Eagles have been poor on both ends of the field, averaging 15.8 PPG, while conceding 31.4. Four different men have seen time under center, with Tate Rodemaker seeing the most action with 580 yards passing, four TD's and four INT's. 

Bryant Vincent's new team looks good early on, averaging and conceding 19.8 PPG. Aidan Armenta is in line for a big performance here though vs. the poor defense of Southern Miss.

Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the visitors to keep it competitive down the stretch.

Either way, this number is too low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOY on the UNDER New Mexico State/Jacksonville State.

New Mexico State is just 1-4 and off four straight losses. It'll be eager to reverse its fortunes here after its most recent 50-40 setback at New Mexico last week. The Aggies have been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones, and I believe this pattern continues here on Wednesday.

Interestingly, dating to last season, New Mexico State has also seen the total fly OVER the number in four of its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. RB Seth McGowan, who has 334 rushing yards and two rushing TD's, will be leaned upon heavily here. 

These defenses are underrated here and this O/U line is a little too high.

The play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOM on the UNDER Saints/Chiefs.

A rather lower total here on Monday Night Football, but not low enough in my opinion.

New Orleans is now 2-2 after back-to-back losses, and a Nationally televised game vs. the two-time defending champs on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked obviously.

The Saints have managed to post 36 combined points over their last two games, and it won't get any easier here in KC vs. this opportunistic Chiefs' defense that has gotten better as the season has progressed.

KC is 17-10 after last week's impressive 17-10 win at the Chargers.

After back-to-back road victories and now returning home, we think the Chiefs will be able to once again dictate the flow of this contest.

With the majority of the bettors flocking to the OVER, I'm going the other way because of all the reasons listed above.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOY on the UNDER Cards/49ers.

Both of these divisional opponents have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but now here in Week 5 I'm predicting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Arizona is just 1-3, and while three of four have flown OVER the number, the Cards have managed just 37 points combined over their last three games.

Their offense is going to be tested here on the road vs. this underrated 49ers' defense, which finally got back on track in last week's 30-13 home win over the Pats.

CMC is sidelined, and that makes this 49ers offense less dynamic as well.

The overall situation points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Pats.

Here's a great situational play. I base most of my O/U picks (in every sport), on "situations."

Miami is 1-3 and in desperate need of a win after three straight losses. Last week it was a 31-12 setback at Tennessee. 

New England is just 1-3 as well after three straight losses, most recently a 30-13 setback at San Francisco.

With each side pushing the pace like I'm suspecting to get back on track in this now crucial early divisional contest, everything points to these teams opening things up on offense and for the total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Tyler Huntley should be better this week for the Dolphins for sure. He has lots to work with on offense and will be more acclimated now.

The Pats had three costly turnovers last weekend. QB Jacob Brissett though has been given the green light here to try and maintain his starting role: “At this point, Jacoby is our starting quarterback,” NE head coach Jerod Mayo said. “I haven’t watched any film or anything like that. He’s been a great leader. ... We’ve got to watch the film. We’ve got a long flight to go back and watch the film and we’re always evaluating every single position.”

Look for these two desperate teams to fly well OVER this low number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOY on the OVER Hawaii/SDSU.

Hawaii is 2-2 and SDSU is 1-3.

The Aztecs have seen the total go 1-3 to the UNDER, while Hawaii has seen the total go 0-4 to the UNDER.

Despite these teams having played mostly low-scoring defensive battles so far this season, I firmly believe now that there's an overreaction on the total here in Week 6 and that these two teams are finally poised for more of an offensive "shootout." 

Hawaii is off am impressive 36-7 win over Northern Iowa, scoring in every quarter. I believe the Rainbow Warriors and QB Brayden Schager, who had 374 yards passing and four TD's, will carry that offensive momentum over here.

SDSU is off the 22-21 road loss at Central Michigan and has now lost three straight. But dating to last year the Aztecs have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after three or more SU losses in a row.

With Hawaii pushing the pace offensively from start to finish like I suspect, and the Aztecs forced to keep paced, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER UCF/Florida.

UCF is 3-1 and Florida is 2-2.

The Golden Knights have seen the total go OVER in all four of their games, while the Gators have seen the total go OVER in three of four.

Bettors are quick to back another high-scoring affair here with the majority of the early money on the "over," so this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

UCF though is off its first loss of the year, a humbling 48-21 setback to Colorado at home as an 11.5-point favorite. And that fact is significant for us to take note of here, as the Golden Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite dating to last season.

The Gators are off the 45-28 win over Mississippi State, but I expect their QB Graham Hertz to have a more difficult time moving the ball today vs. this determined Knights side. 

I expect a few turnovers and for field position to play a big part in the outcome of this contest and because of that, I'm expecting the total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER UCLA/Penn State.

UCLA is 1-3 and Penn State is 4-0. The Bruins have seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year. But note that dating to last season the Bruins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row.

The Nittany Lions have seen the total go UNDER in three of four as well, including in two straight. 

The Bruins lost 34-13 to Oregon last weekend, with QB Ethan Garbers having a pretty garbage game, throwing 118 yards and two INTs. 

Kaytron Allen was a standout with 102 yards rushing and a TD in the Nittany Lions 21-7 win over the Illini last week.

If the Nittany Lions are going to cover this massive spread, they're going to have run up this score. Look for UCLA to get some garbage points down the stretch and for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Bills/Ravens.

While most are anticipating a high-scoring affair here, I believe we'll be in for more of a defensive one. 

The Ravens have seen the total go OVER in all three games this year, but note that dating to last season the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Buffalo is 3-0 SU and it's seen the total go OVER in two of three. This is the start of three straight on the road for the Bills.

Josh Allen and the Bills have looked great offensively, but I've been more impressed with Buffalo's defense, which is conceding 16 PPG. 

LaMar Jackson and the Ravens earned the high-scoring win over the Cowboys last weekend, but clearly the last thing the home side will want to do is turn this into a "shootout" with Allen.

Instead look for Jackson to manage this game while on offense.

These teams always play to tight, lower-scoring affairs, and everything once again points to that happening again this weekend.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV TOY on the OVER Steelers/Colts.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the OVER, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU, and it has seen all three games go UNDER the number so far. Note though, dating to late yar the Steelers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. A new team and look, but still a noteworthy stat.

The Colts are 1-2 after their 21-16 win here at home over Chicago last weekend. Two of three have dipped below the number this year for Indianapolis.

But as I say, I'm anticipating these teams to easily clear this really low total. Obviously the Steelers offense has been great to this point, but I say that Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will be able to consistently move the chains today. Taylor has completed a league-worst 49 percent of his passes, but he does lead the NFL in air yards per completion and explosive passes of 40-plus yards. 

I think these defenses can set up these offenses in some prime short-yardage situations as well.

It would be easy to look at these team's early numbers and automatically assume that we'll have the lowest-scoring game of the season here. And that is in fact what the majority of the public thinks, and what the oddsmakers are all trying to lead us to believe.

But I say these offenses finally start producing here in Week 4, as these up-and-coming quarterbacks duel it out on Sunday afternoon.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER Mississippi State/Texas.

These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating much more of a defensive battle this weekend. 

Mississippi State is 1-3 after last week's 45-28 home loss to Florida. the Bulldogs have lost three straight SU/ATS, which is significant to note, as Mississippi State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after three or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

Texas is 4-0 SU/ATS and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-3 win over ULM. Note though that dating back to last season the Longhorns have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bulldogs are giving up 31 PPG, but I just don't see the Longhorns running up the score in this one, especially with a neutral-site game vs. the Sooners after this.

Texas needs to win this game, but it just as importantly needs to do so without sustaining any major injuries.

The Bulldogs have no hope here, and I don't expect their offense to do much.

A great overall "situational" play, as everything adds up to this one being a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Maryland/Indiana.

Maryland is 4-1 and Indiana is 4-0. This is a big Big Ten matchup and in my opinion, despite each having played to several higher-scoring games to open the year, this one will turn out to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Maryland is averaging 34.8 PPG, while conceding just 16.8. Billy Edwards has been solid to open the season, and the Terps only loss came in a 27-24 setback to Michigan State.  

Indiana is averaging 50.5 PPG, while allowing only 9.25. Kurtis Rourke has the Hoosiers perfect so far through the first four weeks, but neither teams has truly been tested to this point.

These defenses have been great and I think it's the offenses that take a minor step back here in Week 5.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jags/Bills.

The 0-2 Jags will be pushing the pace here after falling 18-13 at home as 3.5-point favs to the Browns last weekend. 

The Bills cruised to a 31-10 win over Miami and there's no reason not to think they can't keep that offensive momentum rolling here.

Clearly, Trevor Lawrence is going to be given the green light here to try and get this offense rolling as the Jags look to avoid the much-dreaded 0-3 hole to start the season. 

Over two games though Lawrence has 382 passing yards, one TD and no INT's. The Bills struggled against the pass with Arizona here in Week 1 and that's going to again be the case here vs. this now desperate visiting side in my estimation.

The Jags will also have their hands full with Josh Allen, who has 371 yards passing and a 3:0 TD:INT to start the season.

With these two competent QB's going head-to-head, I say this total flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Ravens/Cowboys.

For the most part I bet "situations" when I bet totals (in every sport.) And so here's a great situational play on the UNDER in my opinion.

The Ravens have already hit the panic button after an 0-2 start following last week's 26-23 upset home loss to the Raiders as 8.5-point favorites. Baltimore though has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

The Cowboys are 1-1 after last week's humbling 44-19 loss at home to New Orleans. Dallas though has also seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

From a situational standpoint, I love how this one sets up to be a very defensive affair, with each side putting an added emphasis onto that side of the ball.

The Cowboys' defense catches a break facing an over-hyped Ravens offense which is really one-dimensional after Derrick Henry has averaged 65 YPG so far.

This one is going to be decided by field position and by the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOY on the OVER Cal/FSU.

FSU is 0-3 SU/ATS after a disastrous start. It's been favored in every contest and stumbled badly each time. All three games have gone UNDER the number. This is by far the lowest posted total so far for the Seminoles though this season, and in my estimation, it's much TOO low now.

Cal on the other hand is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. It's scored a total of 83 points over its first three games, and I don't see this offense slowing down vs. this struggling FSU defense, which has conceded 72 points thus far.

Cal is playing its first ACC game with Fernando Mendoza running the show and I expect him to keep the pressure on the home side.

DJ Uiagalelei has struggled so far to open the season, but here's a golden opportunity to start to turn things around.

The Bears have yet to really be challenged defensively this year, and I expect the Seminoles to be risking life and limb here to try and stop the bleeding.

I say this one will fly well OVER the number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MAC TOM on the OVER Buffalo/NIU.

Buffalo is 2-1. In its two games as a favorite, it's gone on to score a combined 64 points. 

The Bulls are dogs on the road here in this conference matchup though against the stingy Huskies, who are 2-0 SU/ATS after last week's surprising 16-14 win at Notre Dame as a 28-point dog. Previous to that NIU beat WIU by a score of 54-15.

Buffalo is averaging 21.3 PPG, with QB CJ Ogbonna having thrown for 435 yards while owning a decent 3:1 TD:INT.

The defense has been OK for the Bulls, but NIU is averaging 35 PPG.

QB Ethan Hampton has 526 yards passing and a superb 6:0 TD:INT.

Look for these two competent QB's to duel it out in what I anticipate will be a much higher-scoring outcome than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER JMU/UNC.

James Madison is 2-0 after holding on for a 13-6 win over Gardner Webb as a 36.5-point favorite. Previous to that it beat Charlotte 30-7 as a 6.5-point fav. Both games have fallen UNDER the number, but I expect this game at UNC to have a much faster pace and overall final score than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The Tar Heels are 3-0 and have posted 83 points over their last two games. They've yet to cover a spread and two of the three contests have fallen UNDER the number

The Dukes though will be forced to open gthings up behind Alonza Barnett III, who has 354 yards passing and a 2:1 TD:INT so far.

UNC is off a rocking chair win over NC Central. The Tar Heels ar eranked 11th in the nation so far in rushing with 248 YPG on the ground. UNC is ranked 46th in the FBS with 34 PPG average.

The Tar Heels continue to try and figure out who will be their No. 1 QB after Max Johnson went down in the first game with a leg injury, as both Conner Harrell and Jacolby Criswell will see time.

JMU will score in garbage time and push this total well OVER the number before it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the OVER Houston/Cincinnati. 

Houston has been involved in three lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally expecting the Cougars to put some points on the board. They lost 27-7 to UNLV in Week 1, then 16-12 at Oklahoma as 27.5-point dogs, then they followed that up with a 33-7 win at home over Rice.

It's significant to note obviously that the Cougars have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row (dating to last year.) 

They lost this game 24-14 at home last year to the Bearacts, who enter 2-1 after a 38-20 win over Twowson, a 28-7 loss to Pitts and a 27-16 win at Miami Ohios. Cincinnati has had no issues putting points on the board this season, and I don't expect that to be an issue here at home either. With tough upcoming games at Texas Tech and UCF, this is a matchup that the Bearcats can't overlook. 

The Bearcats are allowing 438.7 YPG in the early going, which is good news for Houston QB Donovan Smith, who will look to build off his first victory.

I expect a lot more offense than the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Illinois/Nebraska.

Both teams enter 3-0, and each has seen the total go UNDER the number in all three of its games so far.

Clearly, something has to give on Friday night!

Nebraska is a heavy favorite and I'm a little unsure if the Huskers can cover the number. What I do expect though is for the undefeated home side to push the pace here and that this faster tempo will ultimately help in driving this total OVER the number before it's all said and done.

Both teams face much bigger challenges after this, making this a crucial game for each side. 

The entire World seems to be on the UNDER here, but I think these teams are going to fly way over this total. The Huskers have been playing incredibly weak competition, but they've still posted 102 combined points over their first three games.

The Illini have combined for 98 over their first three games!

Illinois lost this game 20-7 last year, but with each offense now firing on all cylinders heading into this Friday night contest, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOY on the OVER Pats/Jets.

The money is pretty evenly split here on the side and total, but for a couple of different reasons, I believe this total is a bit TOO low.

I think these division rivals will creep over this really low total as the game comes down the stretch.

New England has played pretty well I'd say so far, or likely better than expected. It won 16-10 at the Bengals in Week 1, before then losing a tough one to a tough Seattle team 23-20 at home in overtime last weekend.

43 points were scored in that one and I think we'll see a similar sort of pace and overall final combined score here as well. I don't think they're going to combine for 70 points or anything but in the mid to high 40's type thing.

I think the Pats can duplicate their offensive performance from last week here on the road at the Jets.

NY bounced back from a poor 32-19 Week 1 loss to the 49ers to win 24-17 at the Titans last weekend.

I also think that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets can keep that offensive momentum rolling this Thursday.

New York's strength was supposed to be on the defensive end though and so far that's not been the case, as it was torched by the 49ers and looked OK vs. a weak Tennessee offense.

Now back at home for the first time, I think that Rodgers is going to want to put on a show.

For all those great situational reasons, I'm rolling with the OVER on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Memphis/FSU.

After only two games, these teams couldn't be further apart as far as their mental states are concerned right now.

Memphis is 2-0 after consecutive home wins and covers, most recently pulling away for the 38-17 win over Troy. Both games went UNDER the number. 

Now the Tigers hit the road for the first time this year to square off against an 0-2 Florida State looking to recover after a disastrous start.

The Seminoles most recently fell 28-13 at home to BC as 16.5-point favorites. With Cal and SMU on deck, there's still time to salvage some of the season, as FSU could conceivably be 3-2 heading into its game with Clemson on October 5th.

Memphis will be applying the pressure from the "get go" here though, led by fourth-year starter Seth Hennigan, who has 82 passing TD's and only 25 INT's in his career.

The Tigers' defense though hasn't been challenged yet this year, and is the weak point of the team. It's now or never for DJ Uiagalelei.

With each team pushing the pace like I suspect they will, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. 

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Bills/Dolphins.

Buffalo's defense looked terrible in its 34-28 win over Arizona, but the Bills had to play from behind the entire game.

Now here on the road on the short week, I believe Buffalo's offense will take a back seat here. 

But the last thing that Miami will want to do is to turn this into a track meet with Josh Allen, Tua had over 300 yards passing in his team's 20-17 home win here over Jacksonville last weekend and I'm expecting a similar paced affair here on Thursday as well.

These teams last played on January 7th and the Bills pulled off the 21-14 road victory here.

Everything points to another lower-scoring battle here as well, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF WEEK on the UNDER Arizona State/Texas State.

Both teams have been involved in some higher-scoring affairs to open the season, but I am expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Thursday night.

Texas State is 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS and it's seen the total go OVER the number in both of its games so far this season. 

ASU is 2-0 SU/ATS and it's seen the total go 1-1 so far, despite having combined for 78 points this season. 

Bettors are looking at the early numbers these two teams have posted, but I'll caution in overreacting. This one sets up well from a situational standpoint to be a lower-scoring battle.

ASU can't look past this opportunity with a tough game at Texas Tech up next. Texas State though has an extended break before a neutral site game vs. Sam Houston State. 

Neither team has really been challenged yet, but with a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers are expecting a competitive battle finally here in Week 3.

I believe it will be as well, but a much more defensive one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

A great situational play on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the OVER Duke/Northwestern.

If each of these teams can score three TD's apiece, then this total will fly OVER this smaller number, and that's what I'm indeed expecting.

Northwestern is off an uninspiring 13-6 win over Miami Ohio. The Wildcats were supposed to be improved offensively, but they came out flat in Week 1. Mike Wright was 18 of 30 for 178 yards, zero TD's and zero INT's. He's a dual threat though that ran for 69 yards and a rushing TD. 

While that Northwestern defense looked decent against Miami Ohio, I suspect the home side will have a more difficult time here vs. Duke, which is off the 26-3 win over Elon. Maalik Murphy finished 26 of 40 for 290 yards, two TD's and an INT. 

Let's not read too much into either team's defensive performance in Week 1 is the moral of the story here.

Look for each side to make some adjustments coming into Week 2 and for this total to fly OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. 

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Chiefs.

Two of the favs in the AFC collide on Opening night and in my opinion, this game will be decided by field position and in the trenches.

Patrick Mahomes is 36-11 in his career at home and he's 4-1 vs. the Ravens (including the Playoffs.) 

As dynamic a player as LaMar Jackson is for the Baltimore, the Ravens are still breaking in a new offensive line and their game-plan will be to try and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands as much as possible. Jackson signed a huge off-season contract and Jackson is 11-2 ATS as a starter as an underdog.

The money is split pretty evenly on both the side and the total in this one, and while I am having a difficult time trying to come up with who will actually win this one, in my opinion everything points to a very defensive battle as far as the total is concerned.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Notre Dame/Texas A&M.

Notre Dame was 10-3 last year, while Texas A&M was 7-6. 

The Fighting Irish have a dominant offensive line, but new QB Riley Leonard will need some time to adjust. The Irish are also dealing with injury issues.

A&M has a new head coach, but it does also have the home field advantage. The crowd is going to make this difficult for this Notre Dame offense. 

But the Irish are stacked defensively as well and Conner Weigman will also be under immense pressure.

This one is going to be decided by field position and by the mens in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOM on the UNDER Lions/49ers.

I had a play on the "over" in the Lions game and a play on the "under" in the 49ers game in the Divisional Round, part of my overall 4-0 Divisional Round showing.

Oddsmakers aren't giving the Lions much of a chance here. Either way, I feel that this one will be a tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring NFC Championship Game once it's all said and done.

These team's haven't played since 2021, and the 49ers scored the 41-33 road victory. Now on the West Coast in San Francisco though and I'm anticipating this contest being decided in the trenches, and by field position. 

The team that looks after the ball in this game is the one that's going to win this contest. With each side putting an added emphasis on establishing the run and limiting what their QB has to actually do here, this one definitely has all the makings of a tighter, and lower-scoring affair.

In my opinion, this number is high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Bucs/Lions.

Both teams played to lower-scoring UNDERS to open up the playoffs, but everything points to a much more wide-open and utlimately higher-scoring game here in Detroit in the divisional around in my opinion. 

Tampa is only 5-4 on the road SU, but 8-1 ATS away from friendly confines. Detroit is 7-2 SU at home and 5-4 ATS.

But for this one, I'm steering clear of the side and instead expecting high-scoring battle for sure.

Tampa's offense was firing on all cylinders in its 32-9 destruction of the Eagles and I don't see its defense being nearly as effective on the road here.

With these two starting QB's getting massive wins in the divisional round, each essentially also got a proverbial monkey off their backs as well with the victory.

Look for these two confident pivots to be the main focal point in tomorrow's summaries of this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL ROUND TOY on the UNDER Packers/49ers.

I had a play on Green Bay in its blowout win over the Cowboys. I also put out a late-breaking play on the OVER in that contest.

But now I'm expecting a completely opposite result here as far as the combined score is concerned here on the West Coast in the divisional round.

Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog.

Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven when playing with two or more weeks of rest.

I think this is a great situational play. This number is high, the play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Steelers/Bills.

When these teams played here on October 9th, 2022 the Bills won by a score of 38-3. While I do expect a more competitive battle here, I do think we'll see a similar final combined score in this one here on Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh won its final three games of the season behind great offensive play, combining for 81 points over that span. We can expect that offensive play to be carried over here.

Buffalo enters the playoffs as possibly the hottest team in the league after five straight wins to close things out. With Josh Allen keeping the foot on the gas like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Packers/Cowboys.

I'm expecting a wide-open shootout. This one is going to be decided by the two men under center.

The Packers started off slow, but they've turned things around behind the great play of Jordan Love. Love will be given the green light here and Dak Prescott will clearly be up for the challenge with such a high-powered offensive behind him, including the likes of star WR CeeDee Lamb.

Dallas averaged 37.4 PPG at home this year. Love registered a 122.2 rating in all indoor games this year along with a 9:0 TD:INT.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WC TOY on the OVER Dolphins/Chiefs.

I'm expecting a higher-scoring shootout in this one. 

Kansas City finished the season by winning three of its last four and an 11-6 record. The Chiefs saw the total go UNDER in the final three games, but note that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

These teams played in early November and the Chiefs won 21-14 here, and while that game did stay below the posted number, the overall situation that each team now finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends do make the OVER the correct call this time around.

Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Dolphins finished 11-6 as well, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing the final two games, including a crucial one to Buffalo last week. 

I just can't see either team sitting back and waiting for the other to make the first mistake here. It's going to be full speed ahead and a lot more "wide open" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe as far as the total is concerned.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Steelers/Ravens.

I think this is a great situational play. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs coming into this one, but just like their first contest of the year, a 17-10 Pittsburgh win at home, I'm anticipating another lower-scoring defensive battle. 

Situationally this one sets up to be a defensive battle. The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed and have nothing to play for here on paper, but they won't simply be rolling over. That said, there won't be any need to try and run up the score either. In fact, Baltimore's best strategy on offense will be to try and kill the clock as fast as possible to just end this game as fast as possible, so as to limit any potential costly injuries. 

Pittsburgh needs to win this game if it has any shot at a Wildcard. The Steelers have seen the total go OVER in four straight after last week's 30-23 victory, but despite that Pittsburgh has still seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

All signs point to the rematch in Baltimore also staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL TOY on the OVER Iowa/Tennessee.

This is the Citrus Bowl and the second Bowl game of 2024, with Iowa and Tennessee squaring off this season.

Iowa finished 10-3 and Tennessee was 8-4. 

The Hawkeyes stumbled in the Big Ten Championship game, falling 26-0 to Michigan. Note though that Iowa has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference loss in which it was shutout.

After posting just 17 points in back-to-back losses, The Volunteers rebounded to win their finale 48-24 over Vanderbilt. Clearly, Tennessee's game-plan will be to keep the Hawkeyes on their heels and not allow them to dictate the tempo.

Iowa saw the total go UNDER the number in eight straight to close the year, but look for the long lay-off between games to be detrimental to this Hawkeyes defensive unit.

Tennessee averages 31.5 PPG and I predict Iowa having to play "catch up" from the very start.

Look for this total to fly OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOY on the UNDER Packers/Vikes.

To say this is a "big" game for these 7-8 divisional foes would be a big understatement obviously.

Minnesota beat the Packers 24-10 in Green Bay as a one-point dog back in October, and note that the the Pack have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in the second game, as to what we saw in the first.

The Packers snapped a two-game slide with a 33-30 win at Carolina and they've now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. But that's also significant to note as Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Vikes are looking to snap their string of poor play after losing four of their last five, most recently a 30-24 loss to Detroit. 

The loser of this game is done for the season, so expect a "play-off like atmosphere" in this one, but as they say, "defense wins championships,"  and in my opinion, all signs definitely point to a very defensive affair here.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Falcons/Bears.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm now finally expecting those trends to end this weekend.

Atlanta snapped a two-game slide in last week's 29-10 win over the Colts and I have no reason not to believe it can't carry over that offensive momentum here.

The Bears are playing their best football of the season and won't be "rolling over" here after winning four of their last five, including a 27-16 victory here over Arizona last weekend.

The bottom line here is that neither team has been mathematically eliminated yet, and I'm expecting this extreme sense of competition that they'll play with here will translate into a wide-open high-scoring shootout.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOWL TOM on the OVER Georgia/FSU.

These two teams are feeling left out. Who will now be playing, and who will decide to sit out of the Capital One Orange Bowl for these two teams?

Whoever does suit up, I feel that the overall situation points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Georgia finished 12-1, and FSU finished 13-0. The big reason that FSU was left out of the College Football Championship was the injury to starting QB Jordan Travis. 

Lawrence Toafili ran the ball ten times for 118 yards in the Seminoles 16-6 win over Louisville in the Conference Championship Game and QB Brock Glenn finished with 55 yards on and no INT's. 

FSU finished averaging 37 PPG and despite Travis injured, we think the Seminoles will be forced to keep pace here with Georgia.

The Bulldogs averaged 38.4 PPG led by QB Carson Beck and I just see this SEC side pushing the pace from start to finish. 

This total is low in my opinion, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the OVER Giants/Eagles.

This is a great situational play. Despite being eliminated from contention at 5-9, the Giants won't be rolling over here as they attempt to play spoiler vs. their division rival.

New York had won three straight before last week's 24-6 loss at New Orleans. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 9 or fewer points in.

The Eagles will be beyond motivated here obviously after three straight SU/ATS losses (note though that Philly has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.)

I like betting on motivated teams when betting "overs" in the NFL and that's the case here for sure.

All signs point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* THURSDAY NIGHT TOY on the OVER Saints/Rams.

It's a big game here on Thursday night and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks.

Both teams are 7-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road, while the Rams are 4-3 at home.

After three straight losses, the Saints have now won back-to-back games, posting a combined 52 points in the process. 

The Rams have won four of their last five and combined to score 149 points over that span. With two road games at the Gians and the 49ers, it's sort of "now or never" for the Rams right now.

These teams played in New Orleans last year and the Saints posted the 27-20 win. I'm expecting another competitive battle here in LA on Thursday night, but one that sees a few more points hit the board.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY on the OVER Eagles/Hawks.

I live in the Pacific Northwest. At this time last year it was well below freezing with many feet of snow piled high on the side of the road.

This year El Nino (or is it El Nina?!) has come around again and it's quite warm for this time of the season. Monday will be a calm night. No rain, no wind and decently warm. 

It's perfect football weather and I think that'll help these hungry teams in eclipsing this posted total sooner, rather than later.

When I bet on "overs" in the NFL, I like betting on motivated teams. Teams that can't afford to sit back and wait for the other one to make the first mistake, but instead will have to attack from the get go and keep the foot on the gas until the final whistle.

And that'll be the case here for these two teams in my estimation. 

Philadelphia is 10-3, but two of its three losses have come in the last two games. 

After falling 42-19 at home to the 49ers, last week the Eagles fell 33-13 at Dallas (note though Philly has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS divisional road loss as an underdog.)

The Seahawks are now just 6-7 after four straight losses. Seattle's great start is firmly in the rear-view mirror, but it's clearly "now or never" for the struggling Seahawks.

As I said, I like betting on motivated teams when betting OVERS in the NFL and it goes without saying that each of these teams will be risking life and limb in trying to secure a victory here.

But these defenses should be able to set up their offenses as well. 

While they've each played to some lower-scoring games of late, the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends, all point to this Monday Night game eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOW on the UNDER Jets/Dolphins.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here on Sunday.

New York is 5-8, including 2-3 on the road, while Miami is 9-4, inculding 5-1 at home. 

The Jets are off the 30-6 win over Houston, which snapped a four-game slide.

They play with revenge here after the 34-13 loss at Miami earlier in the season and NY has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Miami is oft the listless 28-27 home loss to Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite, and I'm expecting it to double-down defensively this week after that mental lapse.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bucs/Packers.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting much more of a defensive affair here finally on Sunday afternoon.

This is a huge game for both teams, and as such, I'm expecting a "war of attrition" in this one. 

Tampa Bay is 6-7, and so too is Green Bay.

The Bucs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but that's significant to take note of, as Tampa Bay has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

This one definitely has all the makings of a tight, lower-scoring defensive-battle, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Pats/Steelers.

A really low total here for a number of different reasons, but a little TOO low in my estimation.

New England is 2-10. It's lost five straight, scoring 47 points combined. Last week it fell 6-0 to to the Chargers. But note that the Pats have seen the total go OVER the number in a near-perfect five of their last six after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. 

Pittsburgh though is 7-4. It's also coming off a loss though, falling 24-10 at home to the lowly Cardinals. These two teams combined for ten points last week, hence the super low total.

New England's defense continues to be decent, but now after three straight games of putting its offense in a position to win, but only failing miserably each time, I think the unit has a major collapse finally here on the road.

The Steelers are allowing 19.1 PPG, while averaging just 16. Mitch Trubisky is under center for the home side, and last week he filled in decently when QB Kenny Pickett went down with injury, finishing 11 of 17 for 117 yards and a TD. 

Look for great defense to set up these hungry offenses and for this total to creep OVER this super low number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Chargers/Patriots.

At 2-9, the Patriots are out of the running for a playoff spot, while the 4-7 Chargers are still mathematically in the conversation.

Regardless, two teams that have nothing to lose but another game collide here and I think we'll see some offensive fireworks.

The Patriots stink and their QB issue remains a problem. New England has lost four straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight. New England though has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

LA is off three straight losses of its own, which is also significant to note in this case as the Chargers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

With each team opening things up offensively like I anticipate, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

10* OVER Chiefs/Raiders (AFC WEST TOY)

Both teams have played to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to come to an end here this evening.

KC is 7-3, including 3-1 on the road. 

The Chiefs though have now played to six straight UNDERS after last week's 21-17 home loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl rematch. Note though that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Las Vegas is 5-6. It's 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three. The Raiders are playing a lot better over the last month, and despite now having seen the total go UNDER in four straight, note that the Chiefs have in fact still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Raiders two-game win streak did come to an end last time out as well in the 20-13 setback at Miami.

With both teams looking to bounce back off losses in this important contest, and when taking into account the rest of the stats and situational factors listed above, everything in my opinion does indeed point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Browns/Broncos.

Here's a great situational play. Cleveland is 7-3 and it's won three in a row. It's defied the odds and gotten great defensive play, combined with great special teams play.

Denver is 5-5 now after winning four straight. The Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

These are the two hottest teams in the league right now and I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the OVER Cal/UCLA.

UCLA is 7-4. It beat Colorado 28-16, but then lost its next two games, before getting back on track in last wee's 38-20 upset win at USC. 

The Bruins though have seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but note that UCLA has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

And for 5-6 Cal, its now or never. Do or die. The Golden Bears have kept their bowl hopes alive the last two weeks by winning both games over WSU and last week at Standford by a score of 27-15. Note that while last week's total did go UNDER the number, Cal had in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five straight previous to that.

Look for these two teams to push the pace and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Ohio State/Michigan.

Clearly it's a big game. Both teams enter at 11-0 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, followed by a trip to the CFP is on the line here.

The last time these teams got together, Michigan won 45-23 as a nine-point dog on the road on November 26th of last season.

This is the lowest total between the teams in the last five years. Note that the OVER has in fact hit nine times in a row between these teams. 

These are two tough defenses, but these offenses still average over 30 points per game each.

Look for this one to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(additional analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOY on the OVER UTSA/Tulane.

This is a big game, and I believe the intense focus that each side brings to this one will translate into offensive production on the field of play.

UTSA is 8-3 and on a seven-game win streak after a 49-21 home win over USF last week. Frank Harris had 411 yards and three TD passes, while also rushing for 112 yards and three more scores on the ground. Expect him to push the pace here as well. 

Tulane is 10-2 and an on a nine-game win streak. The Green Wave have seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight after last week's 24-8 win at FAU, but note that Tulane has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Last week QB Michael Pratt had 252 yards passing and three TDs.

There will be opportunities for great field position as well with anticipated great defensive play from each side.

When you add it all up, this one will fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Jets.

This is the first ever Black Friday NFL game and I'm expecting this one to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch as far as the toal is concerned.

Miami is 7-3, while New York is 4-6. The Jets now turn to QB Tim Boyle to right the ship. The offense has no where to go but up, as NY has scored just one TD combined over three games this month. Boyle is known for throwing INT's, which will only set up this dangerous Miami offense with lots of great field position.

Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four and that's why I'm steering clear of the side, but note that the Fish are still averaging 30.5 PPG this year, which is ranked No. 1. 

Expect this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Raiders/Dolphins.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally on Sunday.

Las Vegas is 5-5 and Miami is 6-3. 

The Raiders made some changes out of necessity and they've won two straight. They've seen the total go UNDER the number in two straight, but note that Las Vegas has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.

The road ahead for the Raiders is a brutal one, with KC, Minnesota and the Chargers at home up next, followed by another game at KC. It's do or die, now or never for the visitors.

Miami has had a week off after its 21-14 loss to KC, but with a week off to prepare and plan, I'm expecting the Fish to keep the foot on the gas offensively from start to finish.

A great situational play on the OVER.

(more analysis avaialble)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Nebraska/Wisconsin.

To say this is a "big" game would be an understatement. These teams re both 5-5 with two games remaining.

The winner will become "eligibile" and the loser will have one more chance.

Either way, while neither team has been involved in many high-scoring games to this point, I believe the conditions are now finally right for a bit of an offensive battle.

Nebraska is off the 13-10 home loss to Maryland, while Wisconsin fell 24-10 to Northwestern. 

The Badgers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that Wisconsin has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

Wisconsin has to be liking its chances here as well as it's won nine straight in this series.

That includes a 15-14 road win last year.

But now the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends finally point to these teams reaching the mid-20's with their points.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Broncos/Bills.

This is a really big game for both teams. The Broncos have seemingly turned the corner with their performance, as they come out of their bye week off two straight quality victories.

Denver has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that the Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Another win, and Denver is right back in the race.

Buffalo is now just 5-4 after a 24-18 loss to Cincinnati last week. The Bills are desperate to break the slide and get their offense back on track here as well after seeing four of their last five games go UNDER the number.

Expect these two veteran QB's to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Panthers/Bears.

What are these teams playing for?! Not for a possible playoff spot, that's for sure.

They're playing for pride. Coaches are coaching for their jobs and players are playing for theirs.

This may have seemed like a possible great Thursday night matchup before the season started, but Carolina enters at 1-7 overall, including 0-4 on the road, while Chicago is 2-7 overall, including 1-3 at home. 

The short week is going to effect these defenses in what I anticipate will be a wide-open offensive affair, rather than a grind-it-out defensive one.

This number is a little low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOM on the OVER USM/UL Lafayette.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. 

Southern Miss is only 2-7, but it still can play "spoiler" here by trying to keep 5-4 UL Lafayette out of Bowl contention for at least one more week. 

That said, clearly the Cajuns won't be leaving anything to chance after last week's 37-17 setback at Arkansas State as a 6.5-point favorite (note though, UL Lafayette has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off an upset ATS/SU conference road loss as a favorite.) 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOG on the OVER Chargers/Jets.

These teams have struggled with offensive consistency all year, but I say this O/U line is just a bit TOO low here now.

Clearly, scoring is DOWN big time around the NFL this year. That said, at some point these lop-sided discrepancies will start correcting themselves.

Regardless, these are two highly-motivated clubs and I'm expecting "duel" here between these two improving pivots, in what I anticipate will be a "shootout" in the end.

In fact, this total may eclipse the posted number by half time in my estimation.

Either way, this number is indeed MUCH too low, as note that LA has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten (70% of the time), after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Everything points to this week's MNF total flying OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Raiders.

The O/U lines keep dropping each week. This one I think is now a little TOO low. 

This non-conference game will be much more wide-open than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. 

Clearly, this is a big game for each struggling team. Another loss would be difficult to navigate past moving forward.

New York has now seen the total go UNDER the number in six straight after its 13-10 OT loss to the Jets last week. It's now or never for Danny Dimes and company.

The Raiders shook up their entire team this week and I think those changes will result in more offensive production on the field of play.

Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(more analysis available.) 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOY on the OVER Bucs/Texans.

Neither team has played to many high-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to finally end this weekend, as I expect this non-conference game to be less intense defensively, and much more wide-open offensively.

It's a big game for each team and with a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. Or at least, they're trying to lead us to believe they're evenly matched.

Whatever the case, each team comes in at 3-4 and hungry to snap losing slides. Tampa lost its third straight in last week's 24-18 setback at Buffalo, and note that the Bucs have seen the total go OVER the number in three of it slast four after three or more SU losses in a row.

Houston has been more competitive than many predicted, but it's still coming off an inconsistent 15-13 setback to Carolina, which came into that game winless. 

The Texans have now seen the total go UNDER in four straight, but despite Houston going UNDER last time out, note that they've still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER LSU/Alabama.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a situational handicapper. I'm also contrarian. 

I base my picks on many different things. I don't find that I'm very good at individual player assessment, but rather I'm better at looking at a team as a "whole." If a player is absent, then that absence is reflected in the line. 

And so I love betting the regular season, and I love betting "situations." And I love betting against lop-sided trends and numbers, and to say that each of these teams to this point has played to a lot of high-scoring games this season would be an understatement of epic proportions.

6-2 LSU has so far seen the total go OVER the number in all eight games, while Alabama has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of eight games. 

The last time these teams met?! The total went OVER the number of course in LSU's 32-31 OT win at home last November as a 13.5-point underdog.

Each side is already eligible, but there are big conference implications on the line here.

Either way, the overall situation points to a much more defensive affair this time around in my opinion.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIVISION TOY on the OVER Titans/Steelers/

What's up with these super low totals? Clearly, scoring is down around the NFL this year. These are very similar to preseason totals.

Either way, I think this total is now just TOO low. This is a really big game for both teams. Tennessee is 3-4 and off a momentum-building 28-23 home win over Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog.

Pittsburgh is 4-3 and ready to bounce back after last week's 20-10 home loss vs. Jacksonville.

Despite the loss the Steelers have still won four of their last six and the short week here works in their favor by playing at home.

Will Levis is in for Tennessee, and it's Mitch Trubisky for the Bears. These guys have nothing to lose and will be given the green light here. They'll both be susceptible to turnovers, but that will only set up the other team with great field position.

I say this total is much too low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jets/Giants.

Neither team has played to many high-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally in the Big Apple as the AFC and the NFC collide to see who will rule the City so nice, they named it twice!

The Jets are 3-3 and the Giants are 2-5. It's a big game for each side, as a victory will keep the winner relevant in the divisional race. Another loss though and these teams are in trouble.

From a situational stand-point it sets up great to be a more of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a defensive affair. If this was a divisional contest, or even a conference contest, I'd likely be looking at this being more of a defensive battle, but I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later once it's all said and done.

(More analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the OVER Eagles/Commanders.

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end on Sunday afternoon.

How will Philadelphia respond after a poor performance? That was the big question last weekend for the Eagles after they inexplicably fell 20-14 at the Jets. 

But Philly erased all bad thoughts with a resounding 31-17 home win over the Dolphins and I expect the Eagles to keep that momentum rolling here in this important divisional matchup.

They say divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side.

Washington pushed the Eagles to the limit back in Week 4, eventually falling 34-31 in OT in Philadelphia and while this contest may not reach that total, I still expect these teams to easily blast past this lower number once again.

Washington is off the 14-7 loss at the Giants, but note that the Commanders have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was a favorite and held to 9 or less points in.

Expect another hard-fought battle between these teams, this time in the Nation's capital, with a total that flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Maryland/NW.

Maryland is 5-2. It failed to punch its sixth win of the year in last week's 27-24 loss to Illinois as a 13-point favorite, buit note that the Terps have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous outing.

Northwestern has been trading good games with bad. Last week's 17-9 loss at Nebraska, despite being a ten-point dog, was pretty terrible. 

The Terps though come in fresh out of their bye and I'm fully expecting them to push the pace of this one from the outset as they look to now finally become "eligible."

The last time these teams played against each other Maryland managed the 31-24 victory, and all signs point to a similar final combined score here as well.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Bills.

The Bucs are 3-3, and they've seen the total go 1-5 to the UNDER. 

The Bills are 4-3 and they've seen the total go 3-4 to the UNDER.

Tampa is most recently off the 16-13 loss to Atlanta. Baker Mayfield has been decent though this year with 1,363 passing yards and an 8:4 TD:INT. 

So far the Bucs defense has been up to the task most weekend, so far allowing just 17.3 PPG, but I'm expecting that unit to stumble here on the road in this difficult venue and at this time of year.

The Bills fell 29-25 at division rival New England last week as an 8.5-point favorite, and they've seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite in their previous outing.

I say these two competent QB's battle it out and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER 49ers/Vikes.

Here's a great situational play. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one definitely falls right into my "wheel house." 

San Francisco had seen the total go OVER in two straight before its 19-17 loss at Cleveland last week as an 8.5-point favorite. Note that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite.

Minnesota is off a KEY 19-13 win at Chicago last week and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. The Vikes are 2-4 and still have hope in the division at this point once again.

I just see the 49er keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and with the home side needing to keep pace, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

The play is the OVER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Bills/Pats.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon.

Buffalo is 4-2 after a 14-9 win over the Giants last week. The Bills have now seen the total go UNDER in two straight.

New England is 1-5 after its 21-17 loss at the Raiders. The week before that it lost 34-0 at home to the Saints, and the week before that it fell 38-3 at Dallas. The Patriots have now seen the total go UNDER in five straight games, which is significant to note here as New England has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Pats are giving up 25 PPG, and I don't see the Bills taking it easy on them. At the same time, clearly Belichick has to open up the playbook here on offense moving forward for NE.

I say that the overall situation that each club finds itself in, combined with the above strong O/U stat, and the fact that this total is low due to the fact that these teams have played to so many UNDERS of late, has finally driven this total a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

This total is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOW on the OVER Falcons/Bucs.

Neither team has been involved in many high-scoring affairs this season, but I say those trends end on Sunday afternoon on what I anticipate will be a much more wide-open contest than what this O/U line is suggesting.

Tampa Bay has now seen the total go UNDER in three straight after its 20-6 loss to the Lions last time out. Note though that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

ATL has seen the total go UNDER in four straight now after its 24-16 home loss to Washington as a 1-point favorite. That's plenty of UNDERS from both sides as I mentioned off the top, but that fact has for sure only helped in driving this particular total this Sunday afternoon, a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

All the offensive and defensive numbers to this point from each team would indicate a lower-scoring game, but the overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS O/U trends do indeed make the OVER the correct call in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER MI/MSU.

As primarily a situational capper, this one ticks all the boxes for me to be a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The bottom line here is that I just don't see MSU scoring a lot here. 

That said, I also can't lay this large spread on the public road favorite either. 

Situationally though as I mentioned, it does set up well to be a much lower-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting. 

Michigan is 7-0 SU and it has a bye week after this. The only game it really has to worry about is Ohio State in the final week, but that games at home. It's hard to imagine the Wolverines looking past the Spartans, but I do think they'll take the foot off the gas and rest starters in the second half.

Again, I have no faith that the Spartans will actually be able to score here, even in garbage time.

Michigan has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Wolverines have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

However you cut it, I say this is a few too many points now finally this week.

Michigan State is off four straight losses, and the last two outings have flown OVER the number.

But now here at home facing Michigan, I say everything points to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* AAC SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Charlotte/ECU.

Both of these teams have been struggling to put points on the board of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this weekend.

Both teams are 1-5. There's nothing to play for here now but pride essentially. I just don't see a lot of effort going into defense this weekend. These beleaguered offenses can finally take center stage. 

Charlotte has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after a 14-0 loss to Navy last time out. Note though that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

ECU is off a 31-10 home loss to SMU and it's also now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is also significant to note take note of here, as the Pirates have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five or their last seven after playign to three or mores straight UNDERS in a row.

Both team's numbers on both sides of the ball have been atrocious, but this one definitely sets up to be more of an offensive affair than a grind-it-out defensive one in my opinion.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOW on the OVER SMU/Temple.

In my opinion, all signs point to this particular ACC matchup on Friday night eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

SMU is 4-2 and looking to move one game closer to eligiblity this week. The Mustangs won't be sitting back and waiting for Temple to make the first mistake though vs. the 2-5 Owls, instead I believe the visiting side will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

SMU is off a 31-10 destruction of ECU, and while it has now seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, note that the Mustangs have in fact seen the total go OVER in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight unders in a row.

Temple enters off four straight losses. It's been a combination of inconsistent offense along with terrible defense. 

When these teams played last year, SMU won by a score of 47-23 and I'm predicting a similar high-scoring outcome this season as well.

SMU QB Preston Stone had 276 passing yards and three TD's last week and there's no reason not to think that he won't carry that momentum over here.

Temple allowed 527 yards of offense last week and it'll be playing catchup here from the get go once again.

As I mentioned off the top, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER Jags/Saints.

I think this non-conference game will be completely wide-open offensively and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The Saints are 3-3 and the Jags 4-3 and the Saints are 3-3. 

New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in all six of its games so far this year, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular Thursday total a couple of points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

The Saints' defense looked great over the first 1/4 of the season, but it sure came back down to Earth vs. CJ Stroud and the Texans last week. Granted, it was only 20 points, but c'mon, it was a rookie QB we're talking about here!

The Jaguars are rolling and Trevor Lawrence is coming off a huge game in hammering the Colts 37-20 on Sunday. Lawrence banged up his knee and is having an MRI, but he's expected to get the start here. CJ Beathard is his backup, but whoever gets the start, this O/U line has already been adjusted to take this situation into account. Whoever gets the start, I still really love this play.

The Jags have 15 takeaways this year, which leads the NFL. This is a team that can hurt you in every phase.

The Saints as I say have looked great defensively so far, but last week Derek Carr had his best yardage game so far in New Orleans with 353 yards. His team was 0 for 3 in the redzone, but now here at home, I expect those numbers to improve dramatically.

On the short week, I believe it's going to be the defensive units that suffer the most in this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOW on the OVER New Mexico State/UTEP.

The Aggies are 4-3 and come in with 2-1 record in league play. They're off two striaght wins, inlcluding a 27-13 victory over Sam Houston State. The offense looked OK, but the fact that the defense allowed 13 points to the Bearkats is what I think is the major concern obviously (they're 0-6.)

UTEP is just 2-5, but it's off a much-needed 27-14 road win over FIU on Wednesday, with QB Cade McConnel going 11 of 17 for 26 yards and two TD's. 

Overall the Aggies average 30 PPG, while allowing 26, while the Miners average 17.7, while allowing 26.1. 

UTEP has nothing to lose here, except another game. NMSU is just 1-2 on the road, so the Miners have a great opportunity here to pull off the mior upset at home and give themselves a slim hope still at a bowl berth.

Two highly motivated teams collide here in Conference USA action on Wednesday night and everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Bills.

Danny Dimes and the Giants exceeded expectations last year, going OVER their season win total. Clearly, they've taken a big step back here in 2023/24. 

They're 1-4 right now. At 1-5, their season will officially be over. At 2-4, the Giants would have a chance.

Note that Buffalo and its opponents have already averaged 49.5 points per game at home, which is quite a bit higher than what this particular total is set at. 

New York away games have only averaged 43.7 PPG this year, which is just slightly less than this O/U line for this one.

Buffalo has been trading low-scoring games, with high-scoring ones after its Week 1 22-16 OT loss at the Jets, and Week 5's 25-20 setback across the pond to the Jaguars. 

Note though that the Bills have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite.

Depite New York's issues on the offensive end to this point, I'm expecting a more wide-open affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here on Sunday night.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Pats/Raiders.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to start the season, but I'm anticipating a shootout here finally between two clubs in dire straights.

The Patriots are off the humbling 34-0 loss to New Orleans at home, which was preceded by a 38-3 loss at Dallas.

At 2-4 the Patriots have a chance in the weak AL East, but at 1-5, it's time for Bill Bellichick to start considering his next move.

Las Vegas is coming off a big 17-13 home win over the Packers. The Raiders have seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, but note that Las Vegas has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

It's now or never for Mac Jones. Jimmy Garopolo will certainly be motivated here facing his former team as well.

With these two highly-motivated QB's going head-to-head, I finally look for these teams to be involved in a higher-scoring "shootout." 

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Saints/Texans.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm expecting those trends to finally end this weekend in this interesting non-conference matchup.

The Saints have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in all five games they've played so far this year, including in their 34-0 win at the Patriots last weekend. Great defensive play has seen the Saints start the season 3-2, but I think we'll finally see a more wide-open offensive affair here this weekend. Or at least, I absolutely believe that the fact that New Orleans has played to so many low-scoring defensive battles to open the season, has influenced the oddsmakers this week, as this O/U line is definitely now TOO low, and the value now swings the other way as far as the total is concerned this week. 

Houston is 2-3. It had its two game win streak snapped in last week's 21-19 loss at Atlanta. 

The Texans' CJ Stroud has yet to throw an interception and I think he and the Saints' Derek Carr will be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACROSS THE POND TOTAL on the OVER Ravens/Titans.

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here across the pond.

Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that LaMar Jackson and company have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Tennessee has also played to three straight UNDERS after a 23-16 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite at Indianapolis last weekend, but note that the Titans have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite.

The Ravens are off the tough loss to Pittsburgh, but I think we have a classic "duel" on our hands here between veteran quarterbacks this week. 

If you add up the offensive and defensive numbers, the public will be quick to jump on the UNDER, but I say the situation and the numbers/trends point to the OVER as the correct call.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Boise State/CSU.

Boise State is 3-3 and Colorado State is 2-3. So far each has played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair finally here in Week 7 in this particular matchup in my opinion. 

Boise State has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six games this season, including in four straight, while CSU has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five, including in its 44-34 loss to Utah State last week.

That's a lot of collective OVERs played to by each side, but that fact, in my opinion, has now pushed this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be.

Boise State has faced some stiff competition, including a 56-19 season-opening loss to Washington. The Broncos numbers are somewhat skewed, but they looked good in last week's 35-27 win over SJSU, with QB Maddux Madsen going for 155 yards and a TD. 

Colorado State suffered two beatdown losses out of the gate as well, falling 50-24 to WSU, then 43-35 to Colorado in OT. Last week they had a 17-3 lead over Utah State, before then falling apart in the 44-24 loss. 

CSU won't be rolling over here, and it can't afford to get into a shoot-out either. I see a much more defensive affair here this week than what the oddsmakers are tryihng to lead us to believe.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOY on the UNDER Georgia/Vanderbilt.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally expecting a more defensive affair here.

Vanderbilt is 2-5 SU, but 0-7 ATS. It's seen the O/U go 6-0-1 this year. 

Georgia is 6-0 SU and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-13 win over Kentucky (note though that the Bulldogs have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.) 

Georgia QB Carson Beck had 389 yards and four TD's in the win over Kentucky last week. The defense though was likely even more impressive in holding the Wildcats to just 13 points. I can't see Vanderbilt even scoring ten in this game

In fact, when these teams played last year, Georgia won by a score of 55-0. I foresee a slightly smaller combined score this time around though. Last week the Commodores fell 38-14 to Florida, and I expect a similar final combined score in this one as well. QB Ken Seals remains a bright spot for Vandy, but his line is going to be decimated today, he's going to be running for his life from start to finish. Last week the Commodores were just 1-of-10 on third-down tries.

When you add it all up, this total is definitely high. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Fresno State/Utah State.

The Fresno State Bulldogs are no slouches on defense. They're 5-1 overall and they own the 25th-ranked scoring defense, which will make 3-3 Utah State careful here. 

So far the average point total in Fresno State games this year has only been 49.8 PPG.

Utah State has played to five straight OVERS, but note that the Aggies have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. 

I see this game being decided by field position and in the trenches, and because of that I'm on the UNDER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the UNDER Broncos/Chiefs.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but on the short week here on Thursday night, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair.

The Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after suffering a humiliating 31-21 home loss to the lowly Jets as 2.5-point favs last week. Note though that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Sean Payton and the Broncos are struggling, and for all intents and purposes, this is Denver's "do or die" game. A 1-5 hole would be too big to climb out of. Clearly, the last thing the Broncos can do is to turn this into a shootout and try to hang with Mahomes. Denver has been terrible defensively this year, but it'll be all hands on deck to try and somehow pull off an upset.

And I just don't see KC running up the score here. I think the Chiefs defense though has been great overall, allowing no more than 20 points in any game so far this season.

Russell Wilson has struggled with consistency, and I expect that'll again be the case here in the National spotlight and on the short week.

This one sets up to be a defensive affair, and that's what I'm expecting.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOM on the OVER SMU/ECU.

I'm expecting a shootout here between two hungry conference rivals on Thursday night.

SMU is 3-2 and ECU is 1-4. 

SMU's two losses were both road games vs. tough teams. The Mustangs will be looking to keep the foot on the gas here though as they look to improve their bowl chances. SMU hasn't played since September 30th vs. Charlotte, going on to win 34-16, led by QB Preston Stone with 135 yards passing and two TD's. But Jaylan Knight stole the show offensively with 150 yards rushing and two rushing TDs as well. 

ECU has faced some stiff competition, falling to Michigan, Marshall and Appalachian State. But then they also fell to Rice 24-17 last week, giving up points in every quarter. 

I just see this being a completely wide-open offensive affair here. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but the overall situation, in my opinion, finally points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(More analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONF-USA TOW on the UNDER LT/MTSU.

Louisiana Tech is 3-4, while MTSU is just 1-5. 

Louisiana Tech is 2-1 in league play. Last week though the Bulldogs fell 35-28 to WKU in a high-scoring affair. Their two conference wins were a 22-17 victory over FIU and a 24-10 win over UTEP. 

The Bulldogs are led by Jack Turner, who has 849 passing yards and a poor 4:4 TD:INT. The defense is conceding 28 PPG. 

MTSU will be desperate to stop the slide here. It's coming off a disappointing 45-30 loss to Jacksonville State last weekend, as the Blue Raiders had the lead going into the half.

Nicholas Vattiato has 1,576 passing yards and a 9:6 TD:INT. Overall the defense concedes a whopping 37.2 PPG.

Both teams have played to several higher-scoring games against each other in the past, and recently as well, but the overall situation here finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion.

MTSU has been trading Overs with Unders since the start of the season, and after its blowout loss here at home last week, I'm expecting this pattern to continue here on Tuesday.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL DOMINATION on the UNDER Jets/Broncos.

Despite their offenses in turmoil most weekends, both of these teams have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season.

New York has seen the total go 2-2 so far after last week's 23-20 loss to KC.

Denver though has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after its first win of the year in last week's 31-28 win at Chicago. Previous to that the Broncos lost 70-20 to the Dolphins.

That's a whopping 98 points that Denver has conceded over the last two games, but thankfully this now highly-motivated defense catches a break facing the anemic Jets, who look complete lost and in dire need of an identity.

Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of chemistry magically coming together for Zach Wilson here in Week 5. The only chance NY has is to establih the run and to turn Wilson into a game manager, while hoping that tough defensive play and special teams will be the difference-maker.

I see this game being won in the trenches and by field position and because of that, I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the OVER Ravens/Steelers.

It's a big divisional matchup here, and I believe we're going to see a competitive, and ultimately higher-scoring contest than what this O/U line is leading us to believe.

Baltimore is 3-1 so far this year, including 2-0 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 2-2 overall, and 1-1 at home.

The Ravens have played to back-to-back UNDERS, most recently the 28-3 win at Cleveland last weekend. Note though that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS road victory in which it held its opponent to three or less points in.

Pittsburgh has also seen the total go UNDER in two straight, including in last week's 30-6 loss at Houston as a three-point favorite. Note though that the Steelers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite.

Lamar Jackson has a 4:1 TD:INT so far for the Ravens. He also has a sharp 104.2 QB rating overall. So far Baltimore averages 24.8 PG, while allowing 14.5.

The Steelers behind Kenny Picket are averaging 15.5 PPG. Pickett has thrown four picks so far. Pittsburgh's weakness though has been its defense, conceding 403 yards and an average of 25 PPG to opponents so far. 

The last five games between these teams have gone UNDER the number, but I say the situation now points to more of an offensive affair here. The Steelers can't sit back and hope that Baltimore makes the first mistake.

After last week's terrible performance, I look for Pittsburgh to be a lot more efficent in front of the home town crowd.

Ultimatetly, this number is just a bit TOO low by my reckoning.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Saints/Patriots.

Both teams have been involved in many tight, lower-scoring defensive-battles to open the season, but I'm now finally expecting more of an offensive "shootout" here between these non-conference opponents.

As a rule, I like to bet on motivated teams when wagering on an "over" and that's definitely the case here for both the 2-2 Saints and the 1-3 Patriots. 

Both offenses have struggled to this point, but non-conference matchups more often than not are less intense defensively, and I expect that definitely to be the case here this weekend.

It's easy just to look at the offensive and defensive numbers and predict what the combined outcome of a game will be, but that's simply not the way it works in the "real" world.

Betting totals is about betting "situations" and in my opinion, this number is now just TOO low.

New England is coming off the terrible 38-3 loss at Dallas and it'll be desperate to avoid the 1-4 hole. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is significant to note here as the Pats have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUNBELT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texas State/UL Lafayette.

Texas State is averages 41.7 points per game while Louisiana is averages 38.7.

Neither has been fantastic defenisvely either, as Texas State allows an average of 27.2 points per game and Louisiana 27.5.

Texas State QB TJ Finley will be facing a Louisana defense that has 18 sacks already and four INT's. 

Louisana QB Ben Woolridge is more of a game manager, and the last thing that the Cajuns can afford to do here at home is turn this into a "track meet" with the Bobcats and expect to hang down the stretch.  Woolridge wil face an underrated defense that has 15 sacks and three INT's. 

While these teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, I suspect this Week 6 battle to finally stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER BC/Army.

Army is 2-2 SU, while BC is 2-3. The Black Knights are 1-0 at home, while the Eagles are 0-1 on the road.

Army will be looking to chew up the clock and control the ball while on offense. Thomas Castellanos helped rally to beat Virginia last week for the Eagles, but this is just a bad matchup for the visiting side. 

Army is a favorite here for a reason, and it's not going to be because it gets into a "shootout" here with the visiting side.

All five games of BC's have eclipsed the posted number so far this year, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be as well.

I'm expecting a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. 

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA TOM on the OVER WKU/LT.

The LA Tech Bulldogs are 3-3 and the WKU Hilltoppers are 3-2. Everything points to a wide-open offensive affair in my opinion between these two hungry sides.

WKU is off a 31-10 win over MTSU and I expect it to build off that offensive performance.

Louisiana Tech is off a 24-10 win over UTEP, and I think the Bulldogs also carry over that momentum here offensively.

Last week WKU QB Austin Reed had 297 passing yards and two TD's, while LA Tech QB Jack Turner had 152 yards passing and a TD. 

In what I predict will be a faster-paced affair between these two conference rivals, all signs point to this total easily eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

The play is the OVER.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Broncos/Bears.

Just two terrible teams here. Both have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but with their backs against the wall here, I look for a much more defensive affair finally.

Both teams are 0-3 SU. A team's chances of even making the playoffs is so slim after starting the season 0-3, but an 0-4 start means that you have to start planning for the next season.

It's do or die, put up or shut up for each side and I believe this intense sense of competition is going to result in a really gritty defensive affair. This game is going to be won in the trenches and by field position.

Both teams leaned heavily on their QB's over the first three games, and that has clearly been a terrible failure. Each will be committed to the run game here this week to alleviate the pressure.

A great situational play here between two desperate teams.

The play is the UNDER.

(Additional analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOY on the OVER Bucs/Saints.

Here's a great situational play. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here between these division rivals.

Both teams are 2-1, so the winner will have a firm hold of the division lead. After B2B wins to open the season, Tampa is off a 25-11 home loss to Philadelphia. New Orleans also opened with two straight wins before falling apart in last week's 18-17 loss at Green Bay.

The Saints have two straight on the road after this, both favorable matchups (Pats/Texans), so a victory here could see the team off to an extremely strong start to the season.

Same could be said for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs as well though, who will have their by week after this. 

I think the oddsmakers are making a mistake here, and this number is definitely much too low.

The play is the OVER.

(Additional analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Oregon/Stanford.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs to open the season, but that fact has only helped in now driving this Week 5 total a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

Oregon is 4-0 SU/ATS, while Stanford is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

The Ducks have seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year, including in three straight, while Stanford has also seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year, including in three straight as well.

I'm a "stats" and "trends" guy for sure, as they help me in solidifying my theories when I'm breaking down a game in my head.

As note that Oregon has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row, while Stanford has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four in the same position.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse.

Stanford is off a tight 21-20 loss to Arizona, and I think the Cardinal will be able to at least duplicate that offensive output here.

Oregon had no mercy on Colorado in last week's 42-6 win, and it won't have any here either.

(Further analysis available.) 

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Georiga/Auburn.

This is considered to be the Deep South's oldest rivalry. Georgia is 4-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. Kirby Smart once again has his team lined up for a National Championship.

Auburn is 3-1, but off a 27-10 loss at Texas A&M as a ten-point dog. That's three straight ATS losses for the Tigers, and note that Auburn has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after three or more ATS losses in a row. 

Georgia had seen the total go UNDER in three straight to open the season, before a 49-21 win over UAB last week. I think the Bulldogs will keep that offensive momentum rolling here in this rivalrly matchup.

The Tigers lost this game 42-10 last year as 27.5-point dogs, and the total did sail OVER the number of 49.5 in that one. I think we'll see a similar final combined score this season as well.

The home side has to be the aggressor here if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset.

At the same time, we can expect the Bulldogs to show no mercy as the run up the score.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SEC TOM on the OVER Florida/Kentucky.

Two really good teams, but each has already played to several lower-scoring games of late, and I'm definitely now expecting a much higher-scoring shootout.

Florida is 3-1, while Kentucky is 4-0. The Gators have seen the total go 0-3-1 so far this year, while the Wildcats have seen the total go 2-2. 

Kentucky is off the 45-28 road win at Vanderbilt and I believe the Wildcats keep that offensive momentum going here and put the pressure on the Gators to keep pace, getting them out of their comfort zone.

Florida is off the 22-7 win over Charlotte, but note that the Gators have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after holding their previous opponent to nine or less points in a SU victory.

Each team has benefited from a weak opening schedule, but for this big conference matchup, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game goes down the stretch.

(More analysis available upon request.)

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the OVER Lions/Packers.

We have a big time NFC North battle here in Green Bay on Thursday night, and on the short week, I say it's each team's defense that suffers. 

Both teams are 2-1 SU. Green Bay is 3-0 ATS, while Detroit is 2-1 ATS.

Honestly, it would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, and that's why I'm steering clear of a side.

I just expect this one to be decided by the men under center in Jordan Love and Jared Goff.

The Lions are coming off a 20-6 win over the Falcons, while the Packers squeaked out the 18-17 win over the Saints.

Two lower-scoring defensive battles, but I'm definitely anticipating a faster-paced, and ultimatley higher-scoring game here.

All signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(Additional analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Eagles/Bucs.

I think the Eagles defense will dominate in this game and shut down Baker Mayfield and company. And the last thing that the home side wants to do is to turn this into a "track meet" with Jalen Hurts and the high-flying Eagles.

The Bucs have played to two straight OVERS, but with a game at division rival New Orleans next weekend, I think the home side is going to get caught "looking ahead" (as outlined in more detail on my picks on the Eagles here in this 3-game Monday night report.) 

I expect each side to try and establish the run throughout on this one and while they've both been involved in several high-scoring games to begin the season, all signs finally point to more of a defensive-battle here on Monday night.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACC TOY on the UNDER FSU/CLEMSON.

Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening.

FSU is 3-0, while Clemson is 2-1.

The Seminoles have seen the total go OVER in all three of their games so far this season, while Clemson has seen it go over in two of thre, including in the Tigers latest 48-14 win over FAU.

The Tigers' chances of making the Football Playoff is likely already over after the Week 1 loss to Duke, but while Clemson has struggled at times offensivly, the Tigers for the most part have looked decent defensively.

FSU has yet to be challenged. Certainly no one has come close in slowing down the Seminoles offensively, but that's going to change this weekend in my opinion. 

The Tigers though can get right back into the picture with a win over FSU here today. The Seminoles competition to this point has to be called into question as well, as they BARELY held on for the 31-29 win at BC as 27.5-point favorites last week.

Don't expect Cade Klubnik to be expected to do too much here, rather instead be more of a "game manager." 

While each side has played to a lot of super high-scoring affairs of late, everything finally points to a much more defensive contest here in Week 4. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Wisconsin/Purdue.

Wisconsin is 2-1 and Purdue is 1-2. In what I anticipate will be a faster-paced affair, everything in my opinion points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Wisconsin hasn't had any issues moving the ball and putting points on the board. In their one loss the Badgers were upset 33-21 at Washington State as 5.5-point favorites. 

They then bounced back in Week 3 with a 35-14 win over Georgia Southern. The Badgers got the better of Purdue by a score of 35-24 at home last year, so the Boilermakers certainly won't be lacking for motivation in this one.

Purdue has struggled defensively overall, last week falling 35-20 at home to Syracuse as a 2-point dog.

Defense takes a back seat here in my estimation on Friday night, the play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUN BELT TOY on the UNDER Georgia State/Coastal Carolina.

We have a couple of pretty good teams colliding here on Sunbelt Conference action on Thursday, as Coastal Carolina is 2-1, while Georgia State is 3-0. 

The Chanticleers are off the 66-7 win over Duquesne, while Georgia State rolled to a 41-25 win over Charlotte in its final tune-up before Conference play.

And that's where I believe we'll now see a much more competitive affair here than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe.

Darren Grainger will have a much more difficult time to move the ball through the air here facing CC's underrated defense.

I see this game being decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the UNDER is the correct call.

Good luck, NP