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This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on the OKC Thunder.

I stated after Game 4 that while it hadn't meant a lot up until that point, moving forward into Game 5 that the "home court" advantage would prove critical, and so far over the last two matchups, that's been the case.

I also theorized on a video last week that to make up for the "small market final," the League would "need" this series to go seven games.

I think both of these cases are still true. The League got what it wanted and needed with a pivotal Game 7, and the home-floor advantage will once again prove to be big for the Thunder here.

The Thunder were a really good road team, but it was going to take a perfect game from everyone involved to knock off a team of Indiana's caliber at home in Game 6, with or without Tyrese Haliburton playing.

He did end up playing and doing well. 

The bottom line, though, is that the Pacers are just not NEARLY as good on the road as they are at home. They did look really good on the road over the first few series, but the Thunder are an even better team at home than as a visitor, finishing 35-6 at Oklahoma City.

I've seen some overreactions from people betting this series, flip-flopping their opinions from one game to the next and not looking at the bigger picture.

Pascal Siakam looked terrible in Game 6, and Indiana managed to win. Haliburton's injury, while better, is still a major concern.

I am expecting a blowout here, frankly. I think this will be one of Oklahoma City's best defensive performances of the Playoffs.

I'm expecting a massive game out of Shai, and wouldn't be surprised if he got close to 40 in this one.

Either way, guys, I say that the home floor advantage is the difference-maker for the THUNDER in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, so lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NON-CONFERENCE NBA GOW on the Thunder.

It hasn't meant a lot so far in the Finals, but now I really do think that the "home floor" advantage will prove to be critical for both of these teams.

I theorized on a video last week when I took the Thunder in Game 4, that to make up for this being a "small market Finals," the League would "need" this series to go 7 games to make up for lost revenue.

And I believe this will, in fact, be the case. I think the SGA, Chet Holmgren, and the rest of the Thunder finally step up here in Game 5 and deliver not only a victory but a blowout of epic proportions.

The Pacers are a really good team, but if they don't get a miraculous, super-human game out of either Tyrese Haliburton or Spicy P, then they just don't have enough depth to keep pace with the Thunder. 

Oklahoma City is 35-6 SU at home. The Pacers are still only 20-20 on the road this season.

My short-term strategy here over the next two games is to take the Thunder in Game 5. If they lose, I'm taking them in Indiana in Game 6. If they win, I'm taking the Pacers in Game 6. 

Lay the points, expect a rout. The play is on OKLAHOMA CITY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NBA GOM on the THUNDER in the FIRST HALF (but if you don't have access to a FIRST HALF line, I also like OKC for the ENTIRE game as well.)

This is going to be a bad matchup for the Pacers in my estimation. 

The Thunder will be looking to send an early message and I'm expecting SGA and company to come out firing in the FIRST HALF in Game 1. 

Chet Holmgren and the OKC big men will present big problems for Indiana in this series, and with so much attention put onto SGA (and rightfully so of course), the rest of the Thunder will have their opportunity to play a big part in this series as well.

Indiana has yet to face a defense this tough in the Playoffs (the Thunder are No. 1 defensively this year), and after the difficult win over the Knicks, I expect Pascal Siakam and company to come out flat here in Game 1.

I like OKC in the FIRST HALF and for the FULL GAME.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUND 2 WESTERN CONFERENCE GOY on the THUNDER in the FIRST HALF.

With nearly 85% of the money on the Nuggets, this is for a contrarian pick.

I like OKC for the FIRST HALF in this game, and I also like the THUNDER to cover the spread for the entire contest as well. 

Denver is still just 23-23-1 ATS on the road this year, while the Thunder are 31-13-2 ATS at home. 

The Nuggets have won four straight ATS in this series, but now the value has swung in Shai's favor in this Game 7 home contest.

I'm expecting OKC to jump out to a quick start as they try to bury the Nuggets early in the first half.

Unlike in Game 6, though, I believe the Thunder will keep the foot on the gas in the second half and maintain their lead throughout.

This is a play on the THUNDER (ATS) in the FIRST HALF and for the ENTIRE GAME.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Celtics.

The Knicks definitely caught the Celtics "off-guard" in Game 1, but I don't see that happening twice.

Having already accomplished in earning at least a "split" over the first two games here in Boston, I do think that the Knicks finally have a small letdown.

The Knicks battled in their 116-113 road win at Detroit in Game 6 to clinch their opening round series, and then after pulling off the monumental upset in Game 1, I believe the visitors do indeed have a classic letdown.

New York did win its Game 1 matchup against Detroit as well by a score of 123-112, only to then stumble in Game 2 by losing 100-94 as 6.5-point favorites. 

It was just a bad overall game for the Celtics. They also had a poor game in their five-game Opening Round win over the Magic, falling 95-93 at Orlando in Game 3.

Look for BOSTON though to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one and lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW on the Denver Nuggets.

The Thunder face a daunting task in a red-hot Nikola Jokic and a confident Denver Nuggets side that took out LA in seven games.

Team chemistry, experience at this level, and Jokic playing consistently from game to game were the key to Denver's success in Round 1, and now Shai and company are going to have their hands full here as well in my opinion.

Denver looked shaky at the beginning of that series, but it definitely got better as it progressed. 

Will "rest" lead to "rust" for the home side, which took care of the Grizzlies in four games? 

The Thunder posted a 131-80 win in Game 1 against Memphis, which was the biggest Game One margin of victory in NBA Playoff history. Suffice it to say, Denver won't be caught off guard here.

The plan for the Nuggets is simple. Steal a game in OKC somehow and take control of the series heading back to Denver. 

I say their best shot is here in Game 1, and while I'm unsure if that competitive effort will result in an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to comfortably cover with the large amount of points that they've been afforded by the oddsmakers here in Game 1.

Grab the points, the play is on DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Clippers.

I'm not counting out LA yet.

Denver is still just 21-22 ATS on the road this year, while LA is 29-14 ATS at home.

Off the back-to-back losses, I like Kawhi Leonard and company to step up here and respond.

Nikola Jokic has been unbelievable in this series, but I believe LA's depth at home proves to be the difference-maker in Game 6.

Lay the points, the play is on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Wolves.

Minnesota has a chance to exorcise some Playoff demons with a victory tonight over the Lakers.

Back in 2003 Kevin Garnett and the Wolves had a 2-1 series lead before eventually losing. In 2004 they lost once again to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in six games after Sam Cassell got hurt and KG was forced to play point guard.

Last year it was Luca Doncic that ended the Wolves run after they beat both the Suns and the Nuggets. 

And so now up 3-1, Anthony Edwards can finally get his team over the proverbial playoff hump tonight with a victory.

Edwards has matured now and isn't intimitated by LeBron James or Luka anymore. Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle round out a deep and difficult team to guard.

And with Rudy Gobert in the middle, the Lakers don't really have an answer for him either. 

Minnesota is the better team in this fight and it's proven that by going up 3-1. The Wolves can't risk this series continuing obviously and in a game that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orlando Magic.

Jason Tatum is doubtful for the Celtics, who can likely win this game without him anyways.

Whether he plays or not, I like Orlando to bounce back here and to, at the very least, keep it competitive enough to cover with the large spread that its been afforded in this one.

The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is on ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PLAY-IN GAME OF THE YEAR on the Sacramento Kings.

Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson?

It's been an up-and-down year for the Mavericks this year, but without their Heart And Soul in the line-up anymore, I'm predicting a quick exit here.

Sacramento is 3-0 in the season series this year. It has a bunch of really good players, including Damontis Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and Zach LaVine.

The Kings are the fourth-best free-throw shooting team and they're great at rebounding as well.

The last time these teams played, Sacramento won 122-98 on March 3rd, and I believe an even bigger and badder beatdown is about to happen on Wednesday.

Lay the points, the play is SACRAMENTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Orlando Magic.

Just a great "spot" bet, combined with the "revenge" angle here.

Boston is off a hard-fought 119-117 OT win at New York just last night. I feel a bit fortunate because I had the OVER in that one.

Regardless, the Celtics now come to town dead tired and unable to help themselves looking ahead to their final two home games of the regular season, both against Charlotte.

The Magic play with revenge following a 121-94 loss at Boston in mid-January.

Orlando has won seven of its last nine games, and it has only a two-game lead over Atlanta for home-court advantage in the Play-In Tournament. 

Orlando beat Atlanta here 119-112, but with tough upcoming road games to close out the year at the Pacers and then the Hawks, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side.

Boston will be resting several key starters here, so lay the points and expect the MAGIC to not only win but also do so in blowout fashion, avenging the earlier loss at the same time.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Rockets.

I think the Thunder's 11-game win streak is in jeopardy here. After this, they return home for two straight games against the Lakers, and I believe that not only does the visiting side have a letdown, but it also gets caught looking ahead.

It's a trap for the visitors, and an opportunity for the revenge-minded home side.

Houston lost 137-128 at Oklahoma City a month ago.

The Rockets have won four of their last five and are off a big 143-105 win over Utah.

While the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Golden State lost its first two games of its current six-game road trip, but it's since bounced back with back-to-back wins at New Orleans and San Antonio. But with big upcoming games at the Lakers, and then at home vs. Denver and Houston, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot for the visitors, but also a potential look-ahead position. And when you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAME." 

Memphis doesn't have the luxury to look past anyone after three straight losses to Oklahoma City, the Lakers and then 117-103 to Boston last night.

The Grizz play with the added incentive of "revenge" here as well following a 121-113 loss at Golden State in early January.

Memphis hits the road for thre straight after this as well. I believe the Grizz come to play tonight and while I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers.

LA is off a big 134-127 win at Memphis and I believe it'll carry that momentum and confidence over here.

The Rockets have won three in a row, including a big 148-109 victory at the Suns just last night.

Houston is fatigued and it returns home for games vs. the Jazz and Thunder, so I believe it'll get caught looking ahead here as well.

The Lakers play with revenge following a 119-115 loss to Houston in their most recent matchup.

And with nearly 75% of the early public money on Houston, this one also greatly appeals to my contrarian nature.

Lay the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dallas Mavericks.

I like looking for great "spots" to bet throughout the regular season. Here's a great one in my opinion!

Dallas has been playing a lot better of late after winning three of its last four. That includes a 101-92 victory at Orlando. 

It returns home for two winnable games after this vs. the Nets and Hawks, so this is without question a crucial stretch for the under-manned Mavericks.

The Bulls won't be in the playoffs, but they've also been playing better of late. Chicago is off four straight victories, including beating the Lakers twice. They've won and covered as an underdog in all four games.

But with a night off before a game at Oklahoma City, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot here facing this non-conference opponent, but also a potential look-ahead position.

And when you add those two factors together, you get "TRAP GAME." 

While I think the MAVERICKS have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Sacramento Kings.

The Celtics have cruised to five straight wins, but off a 129-116 victory at Portland just last night, and with a game at Phoenix up next, I say this one sets up as a classic "letdown" and "look-ahead" trap game for the visitors.

The Kings beat the Celtics 114-97 in Boston in mid-January. Sacramento is 35-35 and still fighting and after back-to-back losses, I like the Kings to bounce back here. It's a difficult stretch for sure for Sacramento, with Oklahoma City coming to town on Tuesday, followed by games vs. Portland and Orlando. 

So that definitely puts added importance onto this contest for the home side.

While I do feel an outright upset is possible considering all of the situational factors working in favor of the KINGS, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are 43-27 after back-to-back losses to open up this road trip. That included a 115-99 loss at Portland as a 4.5-point favorite last time out. Note though that the Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last ten following a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.

The Grizz play with the revenge factor as well following a 128-114 loss here in mid-February. 

The Clippers are now 39-30 after four straight victories. That includes a 132-119 upset home wni over Cleveland last time out.

But with the league-leading Thunder coming to town next, would anyone fault the home side getting caught "looking ahead" here?! 

It's a "trap" game for the Clippers and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a very competitive battle until the final moments.

Grab the points, the play is MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets.

One night after beating the Lakers 131-126, the Nuggets were upset at home 126-123 by the Wizards.

Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this difficult four-game road trip that sees them at the Lakers again, followed by stops at Portland and Houston.

They beat the Warriors 119-115 back in early December, but now Golden State comes in on fire following the Jimmy Butler trade, having won seven in a row. They barely held on for the 97-94 win over the Knicks as seven-point favs last time out though, and now I believe they could potentially lose this one straight up.

As good as the Warriors have been, this is a difficult matchup for them in trying to slow down the Nuggets' inside-outside offense. 

I say DENVER on the moneyline is worth a "sprinkle" as well, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GOM on the Orlando Magic.

Orlando is desperate to break its slide here after five straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Note that looking back the Magic are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 still after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. 

Orlando plays with revenge as well following a 122-93 loss to the Bucks here in mid-January, and note that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Milwaukee is playing its best basketball of the season right now after winning six of its last seven and four in a row. The Bucks have gone 4-0 SU/ATS in their last four.

But with league-leading Cleveland coming to town on Sunday, not only does this set up as a natural letdown spot for the home side, but also a look-ahead position.

Add those two situational factors together and you get "TRAP GAME." 

Grab the points, the play is ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Knicks.

A great spot for the Knicks in my opinion. LA has been unbelievable since the Luca trade, but with an upcoming Eastern road swing starting in Boston, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential "look ahead" position as well.

And when you add those two crucial situational factors together, you get TRAP GAME. 

New York had won three straight before a 114-102 loss at home to Golden State. The Knicks though also play with the added incentive of "revenge" here following a 128-112 home loss to LA just last month.

Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Mavericks.

This one sets up well for the hungry underdog visiting side. I'm not calling for an outright win or anything, but whoever gets the start for Dallas, I like the visitors because of a couple of different strong "situational" reasons.

Dallas is still 32-30 despite losing four of its last five. That includes a 122-98 setback to Sacramento last time out, before a 132-117 loss to these very Bucks.

Both of those results are important for us to take note of here though, as the mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after a SU/ATS home loss in which they were a fav and held to under 100 points in, and 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Milwaukee is 32-25 after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. The public is quick to back the home side here now, with nearly 70% of the early money on the Bucks. This pick also definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

I'm grabbing the points, the play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the Magic.

Orlando is 29-33. It'll be desperate to snap a three-game slide.

It just lost 104-102 here to the Raptors as seven-point favorites. Note that the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. They're also 4-1 ATS in their last five following three or more straight losses in a row.

This is the finale of a four-game trip for the Raptors before heading home for five straight. I say the visitors take the foot off the gas in the second half.

Look for ORLANDO to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GOM on the Rockets.

Houston is 37-23 and off a 113-103 loss at home to Sacramento. The Rockets though have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

They play with revenge as well after a 111-96 loss here in December, and note that Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

OKC is 49-11 and off three straight SU/ATS road victories, but with a date at Memphis up after this, not only does this home game set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead position.

The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Clippers.

As primarily a situational capper, these are exactly the types of games that I'm constantly keeping my eyes open for.

One team is super desperate to break a slide, and it also plays with revenge here, while the other just broke a long losing streak and I think is poised for a mental letdown against a non-conference opponent.

The Clippers are 31-26 this year and second in the Pacific behind the Lakers, coming out of the break and losing their first three road games.

After this game in Chicago the Clippers have two tough home games vs. the Lakers, and so that for sure puts added importance onto this road game on Wednesday night for the visiting side.

As I mentioned, LA does play with revenge here after a 112-99 home loss to the Bulls back in January (and that's significant to note for sure because the Clippers are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread home loss against an opponent.)

Chicago is 23-35 and fifth in the Central. It lost its first two games back from the break, but it rebounded in its last one by winning 142-110 at Philadelphia.

Still, I say that this one favors the revenge-minded visiting side. The Clippers are desperate to snap the slide before the two games against the Lakers, and so I see the visitors risking life and limb here to try and stop that slide, while also revenging the earlier home loss at the same time.

Rolling with the CLIPPERS on Wednesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Grizzlies.

I think Memphis keeps this one tight. The Grizzlies fell 127-113 at the Pacers in their first game back from the break, but then bounced back the following night with a 105-104 win at the Magic.

Cleveland is off back-to-back wins/covers to open the second half after smashing the Knicks 142-105 most recently. With upcoming games at Orlando and Boston though, will the Cavs get caught "looking ahead" here vs. their non-conference opponent this evening?!

The answer is in my opinion, very possibly!

I see this being a very competitive battle and that's why I'm grabbing the points with MEMPHIS. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Knicks.

I like the Knicks to bounce back here after falling 142-105 at Cleveland last time out. They play with revenge here following a 131-104 loss to Boston at home two weeks ago, and note that the Knicks are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Clearly, the Celtics are the better team, but this is just a bad spot in my opinion, as I believe the C's take the foot off the gas and get caught looking ahead to their upcoming two-game road trip.

A great situational play on NEW YORK in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION GOY on the 76ers.

As primarily a situational capper, these are exactly the types of games I keep my eyes open for.

Yes, Philadelphia has struggled mightily this season for a variety of reasons, but I love the way this one sets up for the home side on Saturday night.

Brooklyn went into the All-Star break on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning run, including a 100-96 victory over Philly in the last one.

The Nets though came out and looked flat in their 110-97 home loss to Cleveland. With a game in the Nation's capital on Monday, I think the visitors also get caught "looking ahead" here. 

Philly has lost six straight. It lost 124-104 to Boston in its first game back from the break. They have the Bulls on Monday, with nothing to "look past" here. 

Note that the 76ers have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot though, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

A great "situational" play, backed and supported by relevant ATS stats makes the home side the correct call in this contest.

The play is PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Knicks.

Yes, New York played and won 113-111 in OT just last night at home to the Bulls. I had the UNDER in that one, and despite it seeing extra time, it still stay well below the posted number.

Normally I would not back a team in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, but because we're coming out of the All-Star break, New York will still be fresh here.

Cleveland could come out a bit flat after winning three straight going into the break.

The bottom line here is that the Knicks have performed really well for bettors in this spot. New York lost 110-104 at home to Cleveland as a three-point fav in late October, and note that the Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Pacers

Clearly I feel that an outright win is a very real possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can in this spot.

Memphis is 36-18, but it dropped two of three before the break, including a 128-114 setback at the Clippers most recently. With a game at Orlando the following night, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead."

Indiana plays with revenge after a 136-121 loss at Memphis in early December, and note that the Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS non-conference road loss vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is INDIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Hornets.

I think this is a GREAT situational play. Charlotte plays with revenge after the 112-107 home loss to LA back in late January, and note that the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. 

Lebron James did not play in the All-Star game due to injury. I say LA has a bit of a letdown here in the first game back from the All Star break.

The Lakers are at red hot Portland the following night, making this not only a letdown spot, but also a "look-ahead" position for the home side.

Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Jazz.

After six-straight SU/ATS victories, I think LA gets caught looking ahead to the All-Star break here.

Utah is off three straight SU/ATS losses, but is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, and also 4-2 ATS in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent (just lost 132-113 at the Lakers last time out.)

Grab the points, the play is UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Bulls.

The Bulls are coming off three straight losses, including a 132-92 loss at home to Detroit just last night.

Chicago has responded well in this spot for bettors in the past by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Look for the undermanned, but desperate home side to dig deep and to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

The play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* SOUTHEAST GOY on the Magic.

I love the way this one sets up for Orlando. Atlanta is 25-28 after back-to-back victories. The Hawks have won five straight ATS, but note that looking back Atlanta is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS victories in a row.

With a much more high-profile game at New York after this, followed by a rematch vs. the Magic at home, I expect the overachieving visiting side to take a big step back here.

Orlando is 26-28 after a 112-111 win over San Antonio. This is the first game of the year between the clubs, but after losing three straight ATS, it's worth noting here that Orlando is in fact 6-2 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS losses in a row.

This is a great two week stretch of scheduling for ORLANDO, and I believe it'll make the most of this moment. 

Conversely, everything does indeed point to a letdown/look-ahead for the visitors.

Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EAST-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GOM on the Bucks.

I'm expecting Milwaukee to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one and not only win, but do so in blowout fashion.

The Bucks are 27-22 after snapping a four-game slide with a 112-102 win at Charlotte. Milwaukee has lost five straight ATS now, but note that the Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after five or more ATS losses in a row.

Atlanta is 23-28 after a 126-125 home loss to San Antonio on Wednesday night. But with a three-game road trip starting on Saturday night in the Nation's capital, I say the home side not only has a letdown here, but also gets caught "looking ahead."

Lay the points, the play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE BOB on the Pelicans.

No outright, but closer than expected here in my opinion.

Boston is off the 122-100 win over Chicago at home, but with games at Philly and Cleveland upcoming, we can expect some of the starters to be rested this evening in this non-conference matchup vs. the lowly Pels.

The Pels have lost four straight. They're off the tight 137-136 home loss to Dallas, and I'm expecting a similar effort here as well.

They lost 120-119 at Boston in mid-January, and everything points to a similar battle here.

Grab the points, the play is NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE REVENGE GOY on the Magic.

Orlando is 24-24 after losing four of its last five, including a 125-119 OT loss at Miami last time out.

The Magic play with the immediate revenge factor though, as Portland won 101-79 at Orlando just last week, and note that the Magic are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. 

It's been a string of shoddy play for Orlando (due to injuries and other issues), but here's a prime spot to bounce back in, with upcoming "winnable" games at Utah and vs. Golden State and Sacramento.

The Blazers are 18-29 after going 4-1 in their last five. That includes a 125-112 win here over Milwaukee as 5.5-point dogs. Note though that Portland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS home victory as an underdog.

With two straight at home vs. Phoenix after this, I say the visitors also get caught looking ahead.

Lay the points, the play is ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Bulls.

I love betting on what I perceive to be great "spots" for teams. And that's the case here for the struggling Bulls, who will be looking to do anything they can to snap their current spell of poor play, most recently falling 109-97 at home to Philly. Note though that the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Denver is 28-17, but it just had its four-game win streak snapped last time out at Minnesota, falling 133-104. With upcoming games at the Knicks, Philly and Charlotte, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here.

The Bulls are 19-27 now and the road ahead will not get any easier for them, with three games on the road after this, starting at Boston.

I say CHICAGO will, at the very least, keep this one competitive enough down the stretch to comfortably sneak in through the back door with all of the points it's been afforded.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHWEST GOY on the Thunder.

I think the Thunder will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here and blow the doors off the Blazers once it's all said and done.

OKC is 36-8, but it's coming off a 121-115 home loss to Dallas. 

The Thunder though have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a ten-point favorite or greater.

Portland has won four straight. The last three all came on the raod. Now back at home, I say a predictable "letdown" is imminent here in the first game back after a that unbelievable performance on the road.

With six more home games after this to look forward to, I'm also expecting the home side to indeed get caught "looking ahead" here.

I think this is a TRAP for Portland, and a golden opportunity for the Thunder to rebound off a bad home loss.

Lay the points, the play is OKC.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EAST-CONFERENCE DOG OF THE MONTH on the 76ers.

Outright win?! I'm not calling for that.

But this sets up really well for Philly to comfortably sneak in through the back door in my opinion, despite being down Embiid and others.

Cleveland is off the tight 109-108 loss at Houston, but gets caught "looking ahead" here to its home game in a rematch vs. the Rockets tomorrow night.

It's a classic letdown/look-ahead position for the visitors, and when you add those two situational factors together, you get TRAP GAME.

Philly has lost seven straight, but has had two days off to prepare for this one. With a game at Chicago tomorrow, the 76ers lay it all on the line here in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Spurs.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points here.

San Antonio is now 19-22 after three straight losses. It's had three nights off after a 128-107 loss at Miami, but note that the Spurs are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

Note that this is the first of two games in France between the clubs, and Wemby is going to have a huge turnout here, making this essentially a "home" game for San Antonio.

The Pacers have won eight of their last nine, but I say that the shift in venue will affect the team here in Game 1.

Look for SAN ANTONIO to take advantage of the few situational factors working in its favor here and to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Grab the points, the play is SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE GOW on the Blazers.

I think this is a good spot for the Blazers to potentially win outright, but that said, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Dallas managed a 98-89 win at Phoenix last night without Luka, but I'm expecting a classic letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back.

The Blazers came out of the break with a solid 122-120 home win over Utah. Portland has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three, but note that the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Portland does indeed play with revenge here as well after a 132-108 loss at Dallas in December, and note that the Blazers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent on their own floor.

As stated, the outright is a possibility, but let's grab the points, the play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOY on the Kings.

Just a great situational play here in my opinion. Detroit went into the X-Mas break on fire by winning three of its last four, including back-to-back road upsets at Phoenix and the Lakers. With a game at Denver to conclude this trip, I say that this small mini X-Mas break could not have come at a worse time for this team that suddenly was producing a small amount of chemistry and cohesion.

The break could not have come at a better time though for now desperate Sacramento, which lost its fourth straight to he Pacers 122-95 on December 22nd. The Kings have now lost five straight ATS, but note that looking back they're 7-3 ATS in their last ten after playing to five or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Look for the KINGS to sacrafice life and limb to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Lakers.

Perhaps surprisingly, this is the first matchup of the year between the clubs.

Regardless, while I do obviously believe that the Lakers can win this game outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Golden State is 15-13, but it's playing terribly right now, having lost four of its last five, including a 111-105 home loss to the Pacers most recently. The early season chemistry that GS had is long gone.

LA is 16-13. It just had its three-game win streak snapped in a 117-114 home loss to Detroit.

Looking back though the Lakers have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home win as a favorite.

While I do think the outright is a possibility, let's grab the points and LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Spurs.

Minnesota is 13-11 after a 97-87 win over the Lakers last time out. San Antonio is 13-12 after a 118-116 win at Portland last time out.

Both teams enjoy a few nights off after this with the NBA Cup Final taking center stage early this week, but I can't understate how important I feel that the home court advantage will prove here.

This is a difficult matchup issue for the Wolves with Wemby in the middle and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Rockets.

Houston has been consistently undervalued and overlooked this year. That includes the Thunder which lost 119-116 at the Rockets on in early December.

Typically I like playing on teams that "play with revenge," but not always. And this is one of those rare cases. If this were in fact in OKC, and if this wasn't the type of game that it was, then I believe I'd almost certainly be leaning more towards the Thunder. 

But here on this neutral court, OKC does not enjoy any advantages as far as the crowd is concerned. Houston matches up really well vs. the Thunder and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF REVENGE GOM on the Blazers.

While I do think an outright win is possible here, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can with the revenge-minded home side.

San Antonio just broke a three-game slide with a 121-116 win over New Orleans at home, but with a game vs. the Wolves at home up next, I believe the favored visitors get caught "looking ahead" here.

The Blazers are desperate to break a four-game SU/ATS slide and as mentioned, Portland plays with revenge here after a 118-105 loss at San Antonio in early November (and note that the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.)

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Lakers.

I'm expecting the Lakers to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread, so my official call will be to grab as many points as you can (despite me also thinking that the visitors do indeed have a legit shot at winning this one outright.)

I really like the way this one sets up for the now desperate Lakers, who have lost three of four and two in a row after a 134-93 loss at Miami last time out.

Despite the loss against the Heat, note that looking back the Lakers have still responded well in this spot for bettors, going 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row.

After five straight SU victories, including a 119-104 beatdown of the Bucks on their own floor as five-point dogs in their last outing, I say a letdown is imminent for the home side.

Especially with a series of tricky/difficult upcoming games, including a matchup vs. the Nuggets next.

Desperation can breed motivation, and success can lead to complacency.

I believe those will both be the case on Friday night.

Grab the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Nuggets.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

Denver has been trading wins/losses over its last eight games. Off a 119-115 win over Golden State, it'll be looking to reverse that trend here.

After losing two straight, the Cavs have bounced back with two straight wins over Boston and Washington. 

But with a two-game Eastern swing vs. Charlotte and Miami, I think the home side will get caught looking ahead.

I think Jokic will give the Cavs major matchup issues and while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Spurs.

These two teams are suddely moving in opposite directions, and I believe, for at least one more night, that these trends will continue for a couple of reasons.

The Lakers are now 10-7 after three straight losses. That includes last night's 127-100 loss at Phoenix.

The Spurs are now 10-8 after four straight wins. That includes last night's 128-115 victory at Utah. 

The second game of the back-to-back scenario benefits the home side. San Antonio plays with revenge as well after a 120-115 earlier setback.

I think an outright victory is possible, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Celtics.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. 

Boston is off the 107-105 win here at home over Minnesota. The Celtics have won five straight SU, but dropped four in a row ATS.

Despite playing on the second game of the back-to-back, I think the C's will not only win tonight's game, but will do so in blowout fashion (note, despite not covering last night, looking back still finds the Celtics 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row.)

The Clippers have won five straight SU/ATS, but looking back finds them just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after five or more ATS/SU victories in a row.

The Clippers are the ones coming in fatigued here after last night's win in Philly, and with a big game in the Nation's capital in two nights.

Lay the points, the play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF REVENGE GOY on the Spurs.

Here's a great spot wager. The Spurs are 6-8 after back-to-back losses. They feel 120-115 at home to the Lakers, then stumbled 110-93 on the road against a hungry Dallas side the following night.

The Spurs have now had two nights off to prepare for this one and they play with revenge after a 105-93 loss to OKC in late October.

San Antonio covered with the 12.5-points it was afforded in that one, and I believe the Spurs will, at the very least, also cover here at home with the large amount of points.

They catch the Thunder at the right time as well in my estimation, off the tight 121-119 home loss to Dallas, and with a very "winnable" home game vs. the Blazers tomorrow night.

It's a bit of a letdown/look-ahead position for the visitors.

I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a comfortable home ATS cover.

Grab the points, the play is SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Lakers.

Going to keep the analysis on this one short, as I'm running out of time this morning. 

LA has won two straight after a 131-114 loss at Memphis. The revenge factor does come into play here, as dating to last year the Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

I expect the LAKERS to respond here at home, and for Memphis to finally stumble after three straight victories and a game at Golden State up after this.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IN-SEASON GOW on the Blazers.

I love the way this one sets up for the Blazers. I'm not calling for an outright or anything, but definitely expect it to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This is the first of two here to start the In Season Tournament, and the Blazers enter having lost three straight SU/ATS. That's important to note though as dating to last year Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

The Blazers also play with the immediate revenge factor, as one of those three losses was at Minnesota last week, and note that dating to last year Portland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Minnesota's three-game win streak was snapped in a heartbreaking 95-94 loss at home to Miami and I'm expecting another letdown here.

Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Clippers.

I'm a situational capper, and this is a great "situational" wager in my opinion. 

My strength in handicapping comes during the regular season of sports. I handicap the pre-season, the beginning and end of seasons and the playoffs a bit differently than I do the bulk of the regular season.

This one falls right into my "wheel house" though so to speak. The Clippers are 2-4 SU, entering off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row. LA dating to last year though has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

The Spurs are 3-3 and off consecutive victories, most recently a 113-103 win at home over the Wolves. San Antonio dating to last season though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. 

The Spurs schedule is a manageable one after this, with a game at Houston, followed by home games vs. Portland, Utah, Sacramento and Washington.

Not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the visitors, but also a look-ahead.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Pelicans.

I like picking and choosing great "spots" and "situations" throughout the regular season to take advantage of. This is a great "spot" to wager on the hungry home side in my opinion on Friday night.

Indiana just broke a three-game slide with a hugely-satisfying 135-132 OT win at home over the defending champs as 6.5-point dogs on Wednesday night, and with a couple of days off after this followed by a much more high-profile game at Dallas, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a look-ahead postion. And when you add those two factors together, you get "trap game." 

New Orleans, as mentioned, is off three straight SU losses and four straight ATS losses. Dating to last year though the Pels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU losses in a row.

Enough is enough for New Orleans, which has a favorable four-game home stretch here, with ATL, Portland and Cleveland all coming to town after this.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Pelicans.

I base my picks on many different things. Some games I break down every tiny little thing possible, looking at individual player matchups, other times I employ the "KISS" method (Keep It Simple Stupid!) 

And that's the case here for this signature BOOKIEKILLER play on the Pelicans. 

The Pels are now 2-2 after their 124-106 loss here just last night. New Orleans has lost three straight ATS, but note that dating to last year not only is New Orleans 4-1 ATS in its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row, but it's also 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs an opponent.

Golden State is 3-1, but with two nights off after this, followed by a tough five-game road trip, not only is this a natural letdown spot for the home side, but also a "look ahead." And when you add those two factors together, you get "trap game." 

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Spurs.

San Antonio went 2-3 in the preseason, falling 129-107 at Houston in its finale. It did go 2-1 at home though, including a 107-97 win over the Magic and 126-120 victory over the Jazz.

The Mavs were 1-4 in the preseason, winning their final game 109-84 at home to Milwaukee. They were just 1-2 at home though, losing 121-116 to the Grizz and 107-102 to the Jazz. 

These teams already have a similar opponent, but with different results. I'm not calling for an outright win by I do see the Spurs taking a step forward here, both in this game, and throughout the season.

Will the Mavs get caught "looking ahead" to their big game at Phoenix on Saturday night? Maybe!

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is on SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Suns.

It's a big game for both teams to open the season, as each is out to send an early message after early exits from the playoffs. 

The Clippers finished fourth in the West with a 51-31 record. There are some new faces, but Tyronn Lue's squad went 4-1 in the preseason, including winning their final four straight, conceding just 96.6 PPG. 

The Suns finished with 49 wins but failed to live up to expectations last year. Injuries were a big issue why as well. They went 3-2 in the preseason, but come in completely healthy.

Kawhi Leonard is out for the Clippers with an injury, while PJ Tucker is also sidelined. 

Look for PHOENIX to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this favorable season-opener.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DOG OF THE MONTH on the Bulls.

I'm not calling for an outright win, but I do think this one will come "right down to the wire." 

Chicago finished 3-2 in the preseason, including winning its final two games 125-123 vs. Minnesota and 139-137 in OT over Cleveland. 

New Orleans on the other hand was just 1-2, losing its final two, including a 118-98 setback at Houston most recently. 

Will the Pels get caught looking ahead to their four straight road games (a weird format as well, with two straight in Portland, followed by two straight in Golden State?)

Very possibly!

Chicago is desperate to get out to a better start this year and this is a very "winnable" game. 

Grab the points, the play is on the BULLS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SOUTHEAST DIV. GOM on the Magic.

The Magic went 1-2 in the preseason, while the Heat went 4-1. 

But let's not overreact to preseason results whatsoever. Last year the Magic took a big step in finishing 47-35. They did win their final preseason game 114-99 over the 76ers as well and I think they carry that momentum over here.

The Heat finished 46-36 last season. They didn't make many moves in the offseason and come in healthy, but in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can with ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* play on the MAVS.

I played Boston over the first two games and then had Dallas on the moneyline in Game 3.

While that play came up short, I say that Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Mavs will dig deep here and find a way to avoid the sweep.

Note that Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

I think this strong trend continues here. Boston can wrap this up in front of the fans at home in Game 5 and that's what I see going down.

The play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Celtics.

The majority of the betting public is on Dallas still, which has dropped this line a bit and I think it's now way too low for sure. 

Being successful in the Playoffs is about making adjustments from game-to-game, but this is just a bad matchup for the Mavericks, who defied the odds to make it to the Finals.

I had the Celtics in Game 1, stating that their backcourt would be able to match anything that the Mavs' backcourt produces, while at the same time, I didn't think Dallas had/has an answer for Boston star Jason Tatum.

I expect an even more decisive outcome here, so lay the points, the play is in deed on BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GOW on the Celtics.

Dallas has been on quite the roll to get to this point, defying the odds as underdog to advance to the NBA Finals.

Boston was favored and was expected to be here.

There are plenty of storylines in this series, but I just think that the Cetlics backcourt will be able to match whatever Luka and Kyrie do, while at the same time, I don't think that the Mavs have an answer for Celtics' star Jason Tatum.

And with nearly 65% of the early public money on the visitors, this one also appeals to my contrarian side.

I'm laying the points, the play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Mavericks.

The Mavericks looked good in Game 1, while the Wolves looked tired. This Dallas defense will wear a team down, and that's going to again be the case here in Game 2 in my opinion.

Kyrie Irving is playing at a really high level right now and is a major matchup issue for Minnesota. The Wolves matched up better against the Nuggets.

I just see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so I'm grabbing the points.

The play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mavericks.

Neither team was supposed to be here, but we're going to have some new faces in the NBA Finals from the Western Conference no doubt. 

The Wolves won three of four regular season matchups, but all occurred before Dallas added P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford before the trade deadline. In the one 121-87 rout,  Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively and Derrick Jones Jr. were all out.

This Dallas defense is legit. 

Minnesota "getting over the hump" though in its dramatic Game 7 win at Denver will be an issue for the home side though in my opinion, with a bit of a hangover here for that now legendary franchise playoff series victory.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are a deadly one-two punch and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Knicks.

Outright win?! I think its possible. So far home floor has been crucial in this series, and while Indiana may go on to win this game outright, I believe it'll be decided in the final moments.

The last two games have been blowouts for each side, but I'm anticipating a much tighter game here now in Indiana finally.

This series have been completely unpredictable, but I say that NY has now figured out this Indiana team and we'll see further adjustments now here on the road. I think the outright is very possible as well. 

Yes, the NBA would love a Game 7, and while that my occur, everything does indeed point to this one "coming down to the wire" in my opinion.

So grab the points, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Wolves.

So far home court advantage has meant nothing in this series. I say that pattern continues here and while I do definitely think that the Wolves have a legit shot at winning this one outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

And despite the loss in Game 2, note that Minnesota has is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOB on the Mavericks.

The Mavericks looked competitive in the first half in Game 1, but then they fatigued in the second half and weren't able to keep pace with the Thunder.

But with Game 1 now out of the way, I'm expecting a much more competitive affair here in Game 2. 

Dallas has performed well in this spot for bettors though, going 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

OKC is so far perfect in the postseason, but that streak is going to end shortly. It may not end tonight, but in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mavs.

Dallas took care of the Clippers in six games, while OKC got past a wounded Pelicans teams in four. The Thunder weren't tested, but will now run into a man on a mission here in Luka Doncic.

OKC went 3-1 SU in the regular season sereis, but I'm not reading too much into those results now that the playoffs are here.

The Mavericks defense looked particularly awesome in the first round and I think the Thunder are going to be in for a big surprise here on the step-up in the competition level after the cake-walk in the first round.

While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with the MAVERICKS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOW on the Nuggets.

The Lakers didnt' get swept. But now they're about to lose here in the thin air of Denver in Game 5. 

I'm predicting not only a victory for the Nuggets, but a blowout win in fact.

The Lakers were just 20-23 on the road this year, while the Nuggets were 35-8. 

The cast of characters and strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams is well known, so I don't need to break down the individual player matchups or give you any background on what's going on.

Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent though.

Look for the defending champs to make an example of the King tonight and to keep the pedal to the metal until the final horn.

Lay the points, the play is DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Pels.

The Pels had a chance to win Game 1 in their 94-92 setback. I'm anticipating another tight game until the end here. I even considered taking New Orleans on the moneyline, but in the end let's grab up all these points.

Zion Williamson is still out likely to next weekend, but CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to once again pick up the slack in my opinion.

The Thunder were a great regular season team, but they're in unchartered territory right now for most of these guys.

Playing as the No. 1 seed in the playoffs puts a target on your back.

Both teams shot poorly in Game 1. New Orleans has the depth and veteran experience to once again make Game 2 interesting.

While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers.

To say the "revenge" factor comes into play here would be an understatement, as Denver has won eight straight in this series.

But note that five of those games were decided in the final five minutes.

LA though enters playing its best basketball of the season after winning 12 of its last 15. 

The Lakers are healthier than they've been in years and it's now or never. Will that be good enough to pull off the straight up upset?! 

Maybe!

But in the end, I'm going to grab the points with the LAKERS here in Game 1.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Bucks.

It's a big game for both teams with playoff implications on the line. Both teams are really struggling as well, but despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, I like the Bucks to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in a competitive battle and to earn the comfortable cover with the handful of points that they've been afforded.

Even without the Greek Freak, the correct call is still the Bucks. We just saw Milwaukee beat the Magic by 18 points without Giannis earlier this week. Orlando has dropped three straight games and its inexperience at this time of year will be its undoing.

While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

The play is MILWAUKEE. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Suns.

This is the opener of a home and home set between the teams, and I think the Suns will risk life and limb here to secure the home victory.

Phoenix had its three game win streak snapped last time out in a 113-105 home setback to New Orleans. But with its final three games on the road, this becomes a very important game for the SUNS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM on the Pelicans.

The Pelicans have lost four straight, but despite who gets the start here today, I definitely am expecting New Orleans to put up a fight and go down hard trying.

Most recently it was a 111-109 loss to San Antonio. Note that the Pels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were a double-digit favorite though.

They play with revenge as well after a 124-111 home loss to the Suns at the start of the month.

That was the first win of three straight now for Phoenix, but note that the Suns are a sub-par 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU victories in a row.

Grab the points, thep lay is NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Pelicans.

LA snapped a two-game slide with a 126-111 road win at Chicago just last night, but I believe it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, with players being rested as well.

LA returns home to face Atlanta, followed by two straight vs. Portland, so the visitors also get caught "looking ahead" here.

New Orleans had its four-game win streak snapped last time out here with a 116-95 setback to Cleveland, but the Pels beat LA 117-106 on the road at the start of February and I'm expecting a similar result here as well.

The Pels have Portland coming to town tomorrow, so they don't have anything to "look past" here. 

This one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it in my opinion; lay the points, the play is New Orleans!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Thunder.

Just a really great spot of OKC. Dallas has been on a role as it's won four straight, including a 109-99 home win over the Warriors just last night. 

But now the Thunder can take advantage of this fatigued visiting side, while also getting to avenge a 146-111 loss at Dallas in early February.

With a couple nights off, followed by a home game vs. the defending champs, not only is this a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead."

Look for OKC to have no mercy and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the 76ers.

The 76ers are going to have a tough time of it for the rest of the season most nights without star Joel Embiid in the line-up.

But there will be some nights and spots where it makes sense to back Philly, and tonight is one of those times.

New Orleans comes in off back-to-back wins, but note that after three straight ATS victories, it's relevant to note here that the visiting side is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row.

Philly does indeed play with revenge here as well after a 124-114 road loss as a 2.5-point favorite back in late November, and note that the 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

As I say, without Embiid it's the "next man up" mentality for the 76ers every single night, and most nights that won't work out too well for them, but here is a great spot for Philadelphia to finally be extremely competitive.

I'm stopping short in calling for the outright, but all signs point to a battle until the final horn.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Outright win?! I'm not calling for that. But in a contest that I see being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

First off, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side here, my contrarian nature definitely makes me love this play even more.

Memphis is 20-41 overall, including 13-17 on the road, while Brooklyn is only 24-36 overall, including just 15-17 at home.

Memphis is off five straight SU losses after back-to-back home losses to Portland, including a disappointing 107-100 OT loss most recently. 

The Grizz though are 4-1 ATS in their last five after five or more SU losses in a row.

Brooklyn is coming off back-to-back home wins over Atlanta, but with Philadelphia coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here.

The Grizz play with the added incentive of revenge as well after a 111-86 home loss to the Nets in late February.

Clearly, Memphis is just going through the motions this season, getting ready for next year. But there are going to be moments and "spots" throughout the season where the Grizzlies will win and that putting money on them to cover the spread makes sense.

And this really large one against this really mediocre Nets team that's poised for a letdown is the right place to FIRE.

As stated off the top, no outright, but closer than expected.

The play is MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHWEST GAME OF MONTH on the Blazers.

Here is a great spot for Portland to earn, at the very least, a solid cover. 

Denver comes in on the heels of a 130-110 home win over Washington just last night, and I believe it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back.

With a much more high-profile game at Golden State up after this, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. 

Letdown + lookahead = trap game.

Portland plays with revenge after its 112-103 loss at Denver at the start of the month. The Blazers did earn the ATS cover with the 15 points that they were afforded in that one. 

The Blazers went into the break off six straight losses, but they come into the second half here tonight rested and I believe they'll keep this one competitive throughout.

No outright, but closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Jazz.

I'm a situational capper and this one sets up really well for the home side.

Charlotte is 13-41 overall, including just 5-21 on the road, while Utah is only 26-30 overall, but 17-10 at home.

Both teams return to the second half well-rested, but I think that the home-court advantage will prove to be the differnce-maker here.

The Hornets are only 8-17 ATS on the road, while Utah is 18-9 ATS at home.

The Jazz went into the break on four straight losses but they beat Charlotte 134-122 on the road as ten-point favorites back in January and I'm expecting an even bigger destruction this time around.

Lay the points with confidence, the play is UTAH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NORTHWEST DIV. GOY on the Blazers.

As primarily a "situational" capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. This is the last day of NBA games before the All-Star break, and with a few players heading to the big event, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here.

Portland has lost five straight SU and three straight ATS after its 121-109 loss at Minnesota two nights ago, but note that the Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row.

It's a PERFECT SPOT BET here on Portland, which catches the Wolves complacent and "looking ahead."

I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright upset or anything, but all signs definitley point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Knicks.

Dallas is 28-23, including 14-10 on the road, while New York is 33-18, including 19-6 in front of the home town crowd.

New York was a -4.5-point favorite in a 128-124 loss at Dallas back in January, and note that the Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

And now the Knicks are back here at home as 4.5-point dogs in this revenge spot. 

Yes, Dallas is coming off back-to-back road wins, but over a weakened Philly and Brooklyn. With upcoming home games vs. the Thunder, Wizards and Spurs, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here as well.

Despite who plays, this is just such a great situational play on the home side as there are many different factors working in its favor. 

The outright win is clearly possible, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

The play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Hornets.

Clearly, the 27-25 Lakers are the "better" team. LA though is just 9-17 on the road.

The Hornets' issues are well-documented as well. They're 10-38, including 5-19 at home. Charlotte though comes in "under" the radar here after seven straight SU/ATS losses in a row. 

It plays with revenge as well after a 128-113 SU/ATS loss at LA in late December, and note that the Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

LA is off B2B road upsets, beating Boston 114-105, before then taking down the Knicks 113-105. This is the final game of their six-game trip and they have the defending champs at home after this.

Not only is this a natural letdown spot for the visitors, but it's also a look-ahead position.

Add thoese two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME."

No outright, but MUCH closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Hornets.

While I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter, and ultimatley closer battle than what this line is suggesting in my opinion.

I just think New York will get caught looking past the hungry Hornets. The Knicks are 29-17, but just 13-12 on the road.

With a home game vs. Utah tomorrow night, I expect the visitors to take the foot off the gas in the second half.

The Hornets are just 10-34 this year, but after three straight SU/ATS losses, note that Charlotte is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in such instances. 

Charlotte also plays with revenge after a 115-91 loss at New York earlier in the season, and note that the Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is indeed on CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the Raptors.

With nearly 75% of early public money on the Clippers, we're going contrarian with this one boys.

LA is just 9-10 on the road. It's off three straight SU/ATS home wins, but note that the Clippers are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more straight SU/ATS wins in a row.

And with a much tougher and more high-profile game at Boston tomorrow night, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also  "lookahead." Add those two factors together and you get TRAP GAME!

The Raptors play with revenge here as well after a 126-120 loss at LA at the start of the month. 

The Raptors have now lost seven of their last eight, including three in a row both SU/ATS, but note that Toronto is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

Toronto has had three nights off to prepare fo this one and I expect it to make the most of it. Despite who is on the court tonight, this is a great situational play for the home side.

Grab the points, the play is TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the Rockets.

Boston is just 12-9 on the road this year. It's also now just 20-1 at home after falling 102-100 to the Nuggets last time out.

With a much more high-profile and difficult game tomorrow in Dallas though, I think this sets up as a trap for the visitors here now in Houston, as they suffer the letdown from the first home defeat, while also getting caught looking ahead to tomorrow's contest.

Normally I wouldn't be playing on Houston after a 127-126 OT loss here to Utah just last night. But the Rockets were competitive in defeat. They're 20-21 overall, but 16-6 at home. 

It was a disappointment last night, but I still say that the home side comes to play here in this favorable spot.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do believe for sure that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Raptors.

I love the way this one sets up for the home side and while I clearly believe that the Raptors can win this one outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Miami is 12-9 on the road, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, and with a game at home vs. Atlanta after this, I say this sets up as minor letdown spot for the visitors.

No such luxury for the Raptors, who are 15-25 overall and off four straight SU losses and three straight ATS losses.

Toronto does indeed play with revenge here though after a 112-103 loss here to Miami as a 3.5-point favorite back in early December, and note that the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

As mentioned above, I absolutely believe the outright win is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BK on the Lakers.

OKC is 27-11 and 11-6 on the road, while LA is 20-21 overall, but 14-7 at home.

The Thunder have won four straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that OKC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS victories in a row.

And with another very difficult game tomorrow night here vs. the Clippers, this is also a "look ahead" spot for the visitors.

The Lakers are just 1-2 SU in their last three, and 0-3 ATS. Note though that LA is 7-4 ATS still in its last 11 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

Look for the desperate home side to risk life and limb to get back into the winner's circle here this evening.

Lay the short points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOOD-BATH on the Lakers.

The Lakers already beat the Clippers this year 130-125 in OT here on November 1st. The Lakers would go on shortly after to win the In-Season Tournament, but they've since come back down to Earth and enter having lost three straight SU and ATS. 

That's important to note though, as the Lakers are in fact 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.

I don't usually play against teams that are playing with revenge, but after five straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I believe the Clippers are now getting a little TOO much respect here from the oddsmakers (and public, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the Clippers!), as the Clippers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. 

The Clippers welcome Phoenix here tomorrow, so this is a "look ahead" position as well.

While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Hawks.

The Hawks do indeed play with revenge here after a SU/ATS loss in OKC back in October, and note that ATL is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Atlanta just broke a four-game slide with a win, but it's had a few nights off to rest. 

OKC is red hot, winner of five straight, but after an upset win over Boston at home just last night, and when taking into account the revenge factor, everything points to this being a trap/letdown for the visiting side.

And while I clearly believe the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Warriors.

Typically I don't side with the public, but that's not always the case. I think the 15-16 Warriors (9-8 at home) are going to take advantage of this spot.

The Magic are 19-13, but just 7-9 on the road. Orlando is going to get caught "looking ahead" here to its game at Sacramento tomorrow, followed by a contest at Denver.

The Warriors come in desperate to snap a three game slide, but note that Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU losses in a row. 

With the Nuggets coming to town next, this becomes a very important "must win" game for the home side.

Lay the points, the play is GOLDEN STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Clippers.

Normally I stay away from "public" plays, but despite the majority of the money on the Clippers tonight, I do really love the way this one sets up for the home side, so much so in fact that I've stamped this one with top-rated BOOKIEKILLER status.

This is just a great situational play. LA does play with revenge here after a 105-101 loss here as an eight-point favorite in early November. Things have changed since then though.

LA is 12-4 at home, while Memphis is just 8-9 on the road.

Note as well the the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA broke a two-game slide with a win over Charlotte last time out, but it's lost three straight ATS, which is important to take note of as well as the Clippers are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Memphis comes in off a humbling 142-105 loss at Denver just last night, snapping a four-game win streak. With a couple nights off before a home date on New Year's Eve vs. the Kings, this definitely sets up as a "trap" for the visitors as well in my opinion.

All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The play is indeed on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers.

The Lakers have sucked since winning the Play In Tournament, but after four straight losses, I think LA will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread.

The Lakers play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after a 133-110 loss to OKC on November 30th, and note that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent.

LA has a game vs. the Celtics on X-Mas Day, but it won't be looking past this bounce-back revenge opportunity.

The Thunder have won and covered in three straight against the best teams in the West, but with three nights off after this before another home game, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here.

Grab the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Suns.

Phoenix has struggled this year because of injury issues. It's main line-up has barely played together.

I base my picks on many things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by a strong ATS trend and that's the reason why I'm taking the points here.

Phoenix 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent, and the Suns just fell 114-106to the Kings on December 8th.

With the Wolves coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" as well.

Grab the points, the play is PHOENIX.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Thunder.

This one sets up really well for the Thunder in my opinion. 

OKC is 15-8, including 7-4 on the road. Its two game win streak came to an end last time out in Sacramento, falling 128-123.

The Thunder play with revenge after a 128-95 loss at home to the Nuggets back in October, but that's significant to note here as OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Denver is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but I say it comes in a bit complacent here and gets caught looking ahead to the Mavericks coming to town next.

Grab the points, the play is OKC. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BK on Charlotte.

I think Charlotte catches the Nets at the right time here.

Brooklyn comes in off three straight victories, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off three SU wins in a row. And with red hot Orlando coming to town next, the chances of the home side "looking ahead" are high as well.

Charlotte does indeed play with revenge after the 133-121 setback as a two-point home dog on October 30th. Note though that the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Off three straight ATS losses in a row, I think the hungry visiting side will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded.

Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Bulls.

As primarily a situational handicapper, this is one of the types of "situations" that I'm always keeping my eyes out for.

I love the way this one sets up for struggling and revenge-minded Chicago. With 80% of the public money on Brooklyn, of course, as a contrarian as well, I instantly gravitate towards Chicago in that situation.

But Brooklyn is also off a highly satisfying 112-97 win here just last night over Miami and I think it'll now come out flat-footed here in the second game of the B2B.

No such luxury for Chicago, which has lost three in a row SU/ATS after a 121-108 loss at Toronto last time out. Note though that the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

They fell 109-107 at home to Brooklyn back at the start of the month as 4.5-point favorites, but note that Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

A great "situational" play makes the BULLS my 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets.

Houston is 7-6, while Denver is 10-5. The Rockets snapped a three-game slide with a 111-91 win at Memphis last time out. 

But after ten straight ATS covers in a row, I think the home side is getting too much respect here vs. the defending champs, who do indeed play with revenge here after falling 107-104 as five-point favorites in mid-November (but note that Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) 

Denver is just 1-3 on this road trip. It won't be taking anything for granted tonight.

I foresee a blowout of epic proportions. Lay the points, the play is DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE BOOKIEKILLER on the Spurs.

The Clippers are 5-7 and 1-6 on the road, while the Spurs are 3-11, including 1-7 at home. Two bad teams collide here, but I think San Antonio will put up a good fight and cover easily with the large spread that it's been afforded.

San Antonio though does in fact play with double revenge here after losing 124-99 here to the Clippers two nights ago, as well as a 123-83 setback in LA back on October 29th.

The Clippers return home after this for three straight, and I think they get caught looking ahead.

Look for the revenge-minded home side to post, at the very least, the comfortable ATS cover. The play is SAN ANTONIO.

Good luck, NP