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This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Chiefs/Eagles.

If you're betting on the BIG GAME and if you've bought this pick, and or a long-term client, then I don't have to tell you the strengths and weaknesses of these teams, or the cast of characters for each side. You know these teams and the storylines (and if you don't just google it and you'll quickly get caught up to date on who these people are, and how they got to this ultimate game.)

To be honest, there is no real value in betting on the Super Bowl. This is the biggest game of the year, under a complete microscope on every angle, as the oddsmakers prepare to fleece their biggest audience of all time.

Either way, there are a few reasons I like the UNDER here.

Reason 1: Over 75% of the early money is expecting another high-scoring game, so playing the "under" immediately appeals to my contrarian side.

Reason 2: I've had great success in the past in betting the UNDER in the Super Bowl, after both Conference Championship games went OVER the number. And that was definitely the case this year. And that's a big reason why the public has been quick to back another high-scoring affair. And the bookmakers KNOW this. Las Vegas has raised the O/U line a bit higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion

Reason 3: These are two underrated defenses in my opinion. Those units struggled in their respective Conference Championship games admittedly, but they are one of the biggest reasons that each team is where it is right now.

Reason 4: Philadelphia will be committed to establishing the run with Saquan Barkely in the backfield. This strategy will hopefully keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible, but it will also kill the clock.

As primarily a "situational" capper, these are the primary reasons why I believe the Super Bowl will produce a lower-scoring UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL on the UNDER Washington/Philadelphia.

These teams faced off twice in the regular season of course being from the same division.

Philadelphia won 26-18 here in Week 11, while Washington won 36-33 in Week 16 in the Nation's capital.

The Eagles benefit from playing their third straight at home, but because this one is indeed being held in Philadelphia, I'm predicting a similar final combined score as what we saw in their first matchup against each other during the regular season.

The Commanders' defense looked great in the win at Tampa, and did just enough to hold off the high-powered Lions, although the unit would have taken the foot off the gas after the offense provided such a huge early lead.

Washington though will have to deal with the outdoor harsh wintery conditions for the first time in the Playoffs, and so I expect that to be a detriment to Jayden Daniels and the offense.

With each team looking to establish the run throughout, I'm rolling with the UNDER in the NFC Championship Game.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Bills.

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters on each side, from the players to the coaches, and also the strengths and weaknesses of each team. And if now, then just go google a "review" article on this game, and literally millions will appear to get you up to date.

I'm a sports handicapper, not a sports broadcaster or reviewer.

I'm here to tell you why I think this Titanic battle will be a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. 

The Bills looked great on both sides of the ball in their 31-7 win over the Broncos at home, but Denver's offense is just terrible.

I believe Buffalo carries over that defensive momentum here though. When these teams played here in late September, the Ravens won 35-10. While I think this contest will be a lot more competitive, I'm definitely expecting a similar final combined score here.

Also note that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Ravens' defense also looked great in their 28-14 home win over Pittsburgh. 

Yes, we have two of the most dynamic QB's going head-to-head here, but I'm expecting these under-rated defensive units to "steal the show."

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL ROUND TOY on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs.

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters on each side, from the players to the coaches, and also the strengths and weaknesses of each team. And if now, then just go google a "review" article on this game, and literally millions will appear to get you up to date.

I'm a sports handicapper, not a sports broadcaster or reviewer.

I'm here to tell you why I think the Texans and Chiefs will go UNDER the number here in Kansas City in the divisional round on Saturday afternoon.

The total snuck over the number in Houston's 32-12 win over the Chargers. It's interesting to note though that the Texans have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five of a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. 

These teams played on December 21st here and KC won 27-19. The total in that contest was set right around the 42 to 42.5 range as well. That total snuck OVER the number, but note that Houston has also seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. 

Kansas City benefits greatly from the extra time off. It lost 38-0 to Denver in a meaningless contest in Week 18, but over their previous three victories combined before that, the Chiefs conceded a total of just 36 points. 

I see this contest being decided by field position and the men in the trenches, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Commanders/Bucs.

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, and they also played to a high-scoring OVER vs. each other in the Bucs 37-20 win over the Commanders here back on September 8th.

Note though that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Bucs enter off a 27-19 win over the Saints, but despite that total flying OVER the number, note that Tampa has still seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 17 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The team that plays the better defense is going to move on. Baker Mayfield has looked brilliant at times this year, and really pedestrian in others.

I think this game will be decided by field position and the men in the trenches in the "rematch."

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Broncos/Bills.

Denver is 10-7 and it managed a 38-10 win over Kansas City in its final regular season game.

The Broncos' defense excelled and I'm fully expecting the unit to carry over that momentum here. 

The Bills finished 13-4 despite a 23-16 loss at New England in the regular-season finale. 

The last thing Denver can do is turn this into a shootout with Josh Allen obviously, so expect the visitors to try and establish the run throughout.

When these teams played in 2023, Denver won 24-22 in an upset as a 7.5-point dog, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here. 

These defenses are underrated. Expect a similar final combined outcome as their previous outing here from when they played last year; the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WC TOY on the OVER Steelers/Ravens.

Can the Steelers win a lower-scoring grind-it-out battle with Baltimore on the road?

I say, no way. If Pittsburgh is going to pull off the upset, it'll have to match Baltimore punch for punch on the offensive end. When these teams played on december 21st, Baltimore won 34-17, and the total went OVER the number.

When they played on November 17th at Pittsburgh, the Steelers won 18-16.

If this game were in Pittsburgh I'd likely be leaning to another defensive battle, but I'm expecting these teams to produce their highest-scoring outcome so far in the "grudge match."

Pittsburgh stumbled badly down the stretch with four straight losses, but Russel Wilson and company can erase the stench of this terrible stretch by putting the Ravens on the defensive here.

And what more can be said about LaMar Jackson, who has put together an even better campaign this season, over his MVP campaign a year ago.

I'm expecting these offenses to decide this contest, so I'm on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the UNDER Washington/Dallas.

Week 18 is all about betting great "situations" in my opinion. No need to overthink anything, I employ the "KISS" method most of the time (Keep It Simple Stupid!)

Washington has exceeded expectations this year. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has exceeded expectations to this point as well. The Commanders clinched a playoff spot last week, and I'm predicting a natural letdown spot here.

The last thing the Commanders can afford to do here is put any of their key players in danger.

The Cowboys are off the 41-7 loss at Philly last week, and Dallas has seen the total go OVER in three straight. Note though that looking back the Boys have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Everything points to this one being decided by field position and the men in the trenches and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Bears/Packers.

Betting Week 18 in the National Football League is all about betting "situations" in my opinion.

You have to judge the motivation for each side.

I definitely don't see the Bears suddenly throwing a switch here and caring and trying to put points on the board, while ruining their positioning for the draft.

Chicago has lost ten straight. The Packers will lok to go up early, and then just cruise to victory here. I'm not sure they can cover this larger spread, but I definitely am expecting very few points to hit the board in this one.

Green Bay does need a win here to keep pace with Washington for positioning, but note that there's also snow in the forecast.

Look for the clock to run quickly and for this total to stay well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Lions/49ers.

Detroit is the only NFC team to never reach the Super Bowl. The Lions have a nasty history of crapping the bed in the Playoffs. 

Who knows what will happen this season, but I say the conditions are correct for more of a defensive battle on Monday night. 

Detroit plays with revenge here after falling 34-31 to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. 

But San Francisco is out of playoff contention now, and has many injuries across the board.

Detroit doesn't need to run up the score or impress anyone. It needs a win and to prepare for a deep Playoff run.

I predict a much lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOW on the UNDER Packers/Vikings.

For a number of different reasons I believe that this O/U line is too high, and therefore I'll be recommending a play on the UNDER.

This is a big game for each side, and I believe this intense sense of competition will lead to a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a higher-scoring "shootout."

Minnesota is 13-2 and in the driver's seat. Interesting though: the Vikes have been trading high-scoring games iwth low-scoring ones, and after a tighter-than-expected 27-24 win at Seattle last week, I believe this pattern continues in this important home divisional contest.

They say that divisional contests always mean the most and that they almost always mean the most to the home side, but that's not the case in this matchup, as Green Bay enters 11-4 and third in the NFC North after last week's 34-0 win over the Saints. It was a dominant defensive performance.

Green Bay plays with revenge after a 31-29 loss at home to Minnesota earlier in the year, and note that the Packers have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in, along with the above-listed relevant/supporting O/U ATS stats all point to this contest staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Raiders/Saints.

A great "situational" play, backed by strong/relevant O/U ATS stats.

Both teams have struggled with consistency all year. Each has been eliminated. With nothing to lose (except another game!), I'm expecting a wide-open offensive "shootout" here, despite these team's offensive stats to this point.

Las Vegas is off a 19-14 win over Jacksonville and while it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight, note that the Raiders have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Saints have lost three straight. They're off the terrible 34-0 loss at Green Bay. Note though that looking back New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS shutout road loss.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will from start to finish, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOY on the UNDER Panthers/Bucs.

I think that the overall situation that each team finds itself in, combined with several relevant/supporting O/U ATS stats all point to this being a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Carolina is 4-11. It's been eliminated. So the Panthers are throwing in the "white towel" right?

Clearly note the case after last week's 36-30 OT win over Arizona, as the Panthers relished the role of playing Playoff spoiler. They lost 26-23 in OT at home to Tampa in early December, and note that the Panthers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

Tampa just had its four-game win streak snapped in a 26-24 upset loss at Dallas. Look for the Bucs to double-down on the defensive end here as they try to keep pace for a Wildcard spot.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the UNDER Broncos/Bengals.

There is a lot on the line for each side. If Denver wins a single game over its final two, then it'll punch its ticket to the postseason.

The Bengals though need to win out and get a bunch of crazy help to advance.

That said, Denver just had its four-game win streak snapped in last week's 34-27 loss at the Chargers, while Cincinnati enters having won three straight.

Note that the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Bengals' offense has looked sharp of late, but its defense was on point in last week's 24-6 home win over the Browns.

I'm expecting a similar defensive effort here as well.

The overall situation that each side finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends point to this one staying well UNDER the posted number

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOW on the UNDER Hawks/Bears.

The Bears are eliminated the Hawks are hanging on for dear life after back-to-back losses.

Chicago's only motivation here is to secure their own jobs for next season. That's big motivation. No one wants to lose. And to be the final nail in the coffin for Seattle's playoff chances is also big motivation.

Seattle enters off the 27-24 loss to Minnesota, one week after falling 30-12 at home to Green Bay. Now on the road and on the short week, I'm expecting fatigue to play a factor as well in this pick.

Seattle has been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones, and I believe this pattern continues here.

This one will be decided by field position and then men in the trenches, and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Bucs/Cowboys.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but with the majority of the general betting public quick to back another high-scoring game, I'm going the other way and definitely anticipating a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Dallas is 6-8 and 3-1 in its last four after last week's 30-14 win at Carolina. Note though that the Cowboys have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog.

Tampa Bay is 8-6 and it's won four in a row after last week's 40-17 win over the Chargers. Tampa has allowed just 30 combined points over its last two victories and there's no reason not to think that the Bucs can't/won't keep that defensive momentum rolling here as well.

There is a lot on the line for both sides and I'm expecting this extreme sense of competition to translate into a defensive battle, one that's decided by field position and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the UNDER Pats/Bills.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe everything finally points to more of a defensive affair here on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo.

New England is just 3-11, and it'll just be trying its best to be competitive here. The Pats have seen the total go OVER in five straight after last week's 30-17 loss at Arizona, but note that looking back NE has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Buffalo is 11-3, bouncing back from a 44-42 loss at LA to beat the Lions 48-42 in Detroit. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS divisional road win as an underdog.

Buffalo isn't going to have to run up this score to win this game. Look for the Bills to control the tempo and the pace of this one as they now carefully prepare for a deep playoff run.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Texans/Chiefs.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the conditions are now definitely right for more of an offensive affair on Saturday afternoon.

Houston is 9-5 and off back-to-back wins. It's seen the total go UNDER in two straight. Public bettors are quick to back another low-scoring game, so we're once again going contrarian here and going the opposite way. 

KC is 13-1 and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last week's 21-7 win at Cleveland. That's significant for us to take note of though, as looking back the Chiefs have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

With two tough road games to close out the year at Pittsburgh and Denver, I believe the home side will push the pace from start to finish here in front of the home town crowd.

In my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOM on the UNDER Denver/LA.

I base my picks on many different things, and this particular one is based upon what I perceive to be a great "situation."

Denver is 9-5 after four straight victories. It's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Denver also plays with revenge after a 23-16 home loss to the Chargers in mid-October, and note that the Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

The Chargers are 8-6 after back-to-back losses and I'm expecting them to double-down defensively after their humbling 40-17 home loss to Tampa last time out.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Bears/Vikes.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including against each other in their first matchup of the season, but I think that the conditions are now right for much more of a defensive battle on Monday night.

Chicago is 4-9 and it enters off six straight losses. The Bears looked feeble in last week's 38-13 loss at San Francisco and I have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack this week either.

Minnesota won the first matchup 30-27 in OT, and note that the Bears have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a home loss vs. a divisional opponent.

The Vikes enter 11-2 and on absolute fire right now on both ends of the field.

Minnesota has been alternating OVERS with UNDERS over its last five games, and off last week's 42-21 home win over Atlanta, I expect this pattern to continue.

With the Bears trying to slow the pace of this one down and eat up the clock as fast as possible, everything in my opinion points to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIV TOY on the UNDER Packers/Hawks.

Because of the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with a few relevant stats/trends, I believe this O/U line is way too high.

Field postion and the men in the trenches are what will win this game, and because of that I'm going to be suggesting a play on the UNDER.

Green Bay is 9-4 after a tough 34-31 loss at Detroit in Week 14. The Packers have been alternating high-scoring games with low-scoring ones over their last four and I expect this pattern to continue here in this difficult road venue.

The Seahawks are 8-5 afer four straight victories. The most points they've given up over the surge was 21, in a 26-21 road victory at the Jets two weeks ago. 

The last time the Hawks played at home they won 16-6 over Arizona and I'm expecting a similar aggressive defensive performance here on Sunday at home on the National stage this week as well. 

For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* THURSDAY NIGHT TOY on the UNDER Rams/49ers.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I say the conditions are now correct for much more of a defensive battle on Thursday night.

The Rams are 7-6 after back-to-back victories, most recently pulling off the 44-41 home win over Buffalo.

Before that though they won 21-14 at New Orleans on the road, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

It's 6-7 San Francisco that plays with revenge here though after falling 27-24 at LA as a 6.5-point favorite in mid September, and note that the 49ers have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent.

It's a big game for each side. It's a short week at the end of the regular season. 

The overall situation that each side finds itself in coming into this contest, combined with the numbers/trends listed above ALL point to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOY on the UNDER Bengals/Cowboys.

As primarily a situational capper, these are exactly the types of contests that I'm constantly keeping my eyes open for.

5-7 Dallas will need a miracle to make the Playoffs, while 4-8 Cincinnati has been eliminated from contention.

Each has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but I say that the conditions are now definitely correct for more of a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

These teams played here in 2022 and the Cowboys won 20-17. I expect a similar final combined score here as well.

Dallas has won two straight and is 5-7. The Cowboys haven't thrown in the towel yet. Note though that looking back finds Dallas having seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

I say the Bengals have run out of gas. Physically and mentally now they've checked out. Especially after last week's 44-38 home loss to division rival Pittsburgh. Joe threw his best shot, and it once again came up just short.

With nothing to play for here, and facing a non-conference opponent, the visitors could be caught just "going through the motions" in this one.

As stated off the top, for me being a "situational" capper at heart, this particular matchup ticks all the boxes as far as I'm concerned.

The play is the UNDER. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOM on the OVER Hawks/Cards.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a "shootout" in Arizona on Sunday between these divisional opponents for a couple of different reasons in my opinion.

This is a big game for each side and I'm expecting each to push the pace from start to finish.

Seattle is now 7-5 and first in the NFC West after its third straight win by beating the Jets in New York by a score of 26-21. 

Arizona though lost two in a row after last week's tight 23-22 loss at Minnesota to fall to 6-6. Arizona though does play with revenge after Week 12's 16-6 loss at Seattle, and note that the Cards have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent.

I see these offenses setting the tone early and often and because of that, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOW on the UNDER Browns/Steelers.

While these teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Browns' 24-19 win at home in Week 12, I'm finally expecting much more of a defensive battle here on Sunday in the final regular season matchup between these divisional opponents.

Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Cleveland fell 41-32 at Denver last weekend, but also note that looking back the Browns have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

Look for Pittsburgh to control the tempo at home and for the total to stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOM on the OVER Packers/Lions.

A big NFC North matchup between two gunslinging QB's and two of the league's highest-scoring teams, and in my opinion everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Green Bay is 9-3 after three straight victories. The Packers fell 24-14 to Detroit at home back in early November, but note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

Detroit though is 11-1 after its most recent 23-20 win here over Chicago. It's been getting the job done with defense over the last three games, but it also has faced three straight offensively challenged opponents (Jags, Colts and Bears.)

The Lions will have to be careful not to get caught looking ahead, as they do in fact have a difficult final schedule, with upcoming games here vs. Buffalo, a Chicago, at San Francisco, and here at home to Minnesota to close.

Either way, the short week is going to have more of an adverse effect on these defenses in my estimation and because of that, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Browns/Broncos.

Denver is 7-5 after back-to-back victories. While it went OVER the number in last week's 29-19 win at Las Vegas, it's still only conceded 25 points over its last two games.

The Broncos will have to be careful to not get caught "looking ahead" here to their bye week either, coming at a great time before their final four games.

Either way, look for the home side to try and control the clock and the pace.

The Browns will be looking to establish their run game as well after moving to 3-8 following last week's 24-19 victory vs. Pittsburgh.

While each went OVER the number in their last game, this Monday Night Football primetime match-up points to this one being decided by field position, and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER 49ers/Bills.

For a couple of different reasons I'm expecting a much lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I'm expecting field position and the men in the trenches will ultimately decide this one.

A bit of a difficult spread though, but the total points to a tight battle for sure.

San Francisco is 5-6 and struggling with offensive consistency right now. And I don't see that pattern changing on a cold night in Buffalo in December.

Last week San Fran could only manage ten points in its 38-10 setback at Green Bay.

The Bills are 9-2 and and in the "drivers seat" after last week's 30-21 home win over the Chiefs. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in five straight games. But I just don't see Buffalo running up the score here, or needing to.

With two straight difficult road games after this at LA and Detroit. the home side will also be looking/planning ahead.

I say the conditions are correct for a lower-scoring UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Steelers/Bengals.

A really great situational play here on a number of different levels.

Pittsburgh just had its five-game win streak snapped in last weeks 24-19 loss at Cleveland. Now its a second straight divisional road game and everything points to a similar final combined score here as well in my opinion.

The Bengals are 4-7 and you have to wonder how much fight is left in them with six difficult games remaining and off back-to-back losses. Despite last week's 34-27 loss at the Chargers going OVER the number, note that Cincinnati has still seen the total dip below the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Pittsburgh will look to grind out the win here and I'm expecting this more methodical overall pace to help in producing a lower-scoring outcome once the final whistle sounds.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOW on the UNDER Raiders/Chiefs.

I think everything points to a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle on Friday between these AFC West opponents.

Las Vegas is 2-9 and has nothing to play for here except to try and play spoiler. It lost 27-20 to KC back on October 27th at home, and while the game went OVER the number, note that the Raiders have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. a division opponent.

KC enters 10-1, most recently holding on for the tighter-than-expected 30-27 victory at Carolina. It's interestingly lost five straight ATS. 

Look for the short week, the national stage and the elements to also all play a factor here in helping to contribute in pushing this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Dolphins/Packers.

I'm expecting a defensive battle in the night-cap on Thursday night.

Just a great situational play here. Green Bay is 8-3 and off back-to-back victories. Note that the Packers though have interestingly seen the total dive below the posted number in four of their last five when playing on six or less days rest.

When these teams played last in 2022, the Packers managed the 26-22 win in Miami and I predict Thursday's contest will be even tighter.

The Dolphins are 5-6. Tua's returned and they've won three in a row, and also covered in four straight. Five of their last six have flown OVER the number, but it's also interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after three or more straight victories in a row.

I'm expecting the short week, the later start, combined with all of the other above-listed factors/trends to lead to a lower-scoring UNDER once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOM on the OVER Cards/Hawks.

Seattle broke a two-game slide with a crucial 20-17 in at San Francisco last weekend and I believe it'll carry that momentum over here and put the pressure on the 6-4 Cardinals to keep pace.

Arizona is off four straight wins, most recently beating the Jets 31-6 at home last weekend. In their last road game three weeks ago, they came out on top 28-27 at Miami, and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well.

It was a do or die game for the Hawks last weekend, but that victory will mean nothing if they can't also deliver the goods here at home vs. the Cards.

I just anticipate a much faster pace than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOW on the OVER Vikes/Bears.

I think this one sets up to be a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring battle.

Minnesota is 8-2 and off three straight victories. The Vikes have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, but note that dating to last year Minnesota has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bears are 4-6 after four straight losses. All four games have gone UNDER the number. 

But with a tough Thanksgiving game at Detroit on Thursday, it's now or never for Chicago.

With each team pushing the pace like I'm suspecting they will, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Texans/Cowboys.

For a couple of different key reasons, I'm expecting a "shootout" between these two non-conference opponents, rather than a lower-scoring grind-it-out battle. 

Houston is 6-4, but it's off consecutive losses, most recently the 26-23 setback at home to Detroit. 

The Cowboys are beyond desperate after losing four straight and now most recently also losing the services of starting QB Dak Prescott. I view this is a rallying point for the offense though. For this week anyways. Expect to see a mixture of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance under center.

Long story short, look for these two offenses to push the pace and for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV TOM on the UNDER Bengals/Chargers.

Each team has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here on Sunday night than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Just overall a really great situational play in my opinion. 

The Bengals are 4-6 and have been trading wins/losses over their last four games. They let a really important one slip away in last week's 35-34 setback at Baltimore. Close but no cigar, and Burrow and company are going to be hard-pressed in my estimation to come out here with the same positive attitude and hype. I predict a more conservative game-plan this week from Cincinnati. 

Note though that the Bengals have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Chargers are 6-3 and have won three in a row. Their defense has been superb all year, but especially over this recent surge, conceding a total of 35 points in that span.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a lower-scoring defensive UNDER in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the UNDER Ravens/Steelers.

Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating more of a defensive battle for a couple of different key reasons.

Baltimore is 7-3 after back-to-back wins. Despite last week's 35-34 win over the Bengals, note tha the Ravens have still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Pittsburgh is 7-2 after four straight wins. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight. 

But the last time these teams played against each other last year, Pittsburgh won by a score of 17-10.

I say this O/U line is elevated, and the public is a little too quick this time to blindly back another high-scoring affair.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC North TOM on the OVER Packers/Bears.

I'm expecting each side to push the pace and for this total to ultimately fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Green Bay is 6-3 after last week's 24-14 divisional home loss to Detroit. Note though that the Packers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five following a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog. The Packers have had a week off to prepare for this one as well, so look for Jordan Love to be a lot more prepared this time around. 

Chicago is just 4-5 after three straight losses. It got rid of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after last week's 19-3 loss to New England. The Bears though still have a legit shot to make the playoffs, but they can't afford another divisional loss.

This is a great situational play. With each side pushing the pace like I'm suspecting, everything points to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the UNDER Washington/Philadelphia.

It's a big matchup for first place in the NFC East tonight in the first matchup between these two division rivals. 

They'll play again in the Nation's capital on December 22nd. Either way, the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this being a defensive battle on Thursday night.

Washington just had its three-game win streak snapped in a tight 28-27 loss at home to Pittsburgh. Dating to last year though the Commanders have seen the total dip below the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Philadelphia has won five straight and looked dominant on both ends of the field in last week's 34-6 divisional victory over the Cowboys. 

I expect the Eagles' defense to be just as dominant this weekend.

In a contest that I see being decided by field position and the men in the trenches, I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIV TOM on the UNDER 49ers/Bucs.

I really love the way this one sets up from a "situational" stand point. If you've followed me for any length of time then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper. I'm also a contrarian at heart and while the majority is expecting these teams to post another high-scoring after posting several "overs" of the last few weeks, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

San Fran has been trading wins/losses over its last six games. Off a 30-24 win over Dallas last week, it will be eager to reverse that trend this weekend. The 49ers have also seen the total go Over/Under the last six games as well, after it eclipsed the posted number last time out, look for this O/U trend to continue here with another lower-scoring battle.

The Bucs are now desperate to snap a three-game slide after last weeks 30-24 OT loss at KC. Tampa Bay has seen the total go OVER in six straight, but note that despite last week's total going OVER the number, Tampa has still seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven dating to last year after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

It's a crucial game for both sides. With each team putting an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense, everything points to this game being decided by field-position, and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOM on the UNDER Denver/KC.

I really love the way this one sets up from a "situational" stand point. If you've followed me for any length of time then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper. I'm also a contrarian at heart and while the majority is expecting these teams to post another high-scoring after posting several "overs" of the last few weeks, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

Denver is off the 41-10 loss at Baltimore last weekend and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency in this one as well. The Broncos have now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five dating to last year after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

KC is 8-0. It's off the 30-24 OT win over Tampa last weekend. When these divisional opponents played last October 29th though, Denver won by a score of 24-9.

I anticipate a similar final combined score here as well, where field position becomes a big determining factor for the winning side.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ULTRA-EARLY TOTAL on the UNDER Giants/Panthers.

I'm banking on a lower-scoring UNDER between New York and Carolina in Munich on Sunday morning.

The Giants are off a 27-22 defeat to the Commanders, while Carolina managed a 23-22 win over New Orleans in its last outing. 

New York's season is officially over at 2-7. We don't see the team putting up much of an effort here. Overall they average only 191.4 YPG through the air, and we can't see them reaching that mark here in Europe.

Carolina is 2-7, and its season is over already as well despite last week's win. Carolina only averages 176.6 YPG through the air.

With each team looking to establish the run while on offense like I suspect, the correct call as far as the total is concerned is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Bengals/Ravens.

A fantastic situational play on the UNDER here. It's a big divisional game on a short week and while each team has played to several higher-scoring games this season, everything finally points to a very defensive-affair on Thursday night.

The Bengals are 4-5 and have won three of their last four. They're off a 41-24 win over the Raiders. In their last road game they won 21-14 at Cleveland and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in this one. 

The Ravens are 6-3 and they've won three of their last four as well, most recently a 41-10 win over Denver. Baltimore has seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that dating to last year that the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. 

With the majority going one way on this total, I'm going the other.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Lions/Packers.

Detroit is 6-1. QB Jared Goff is putting up huge numbers during the Lions' five-game win streak, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here in this important divisional matchup.

The Lions dominating the way they are is a bit of s surprise, but Detroit was one of the favored to win the NFC. 

I think Green Bay at 6-2 is more of a surprise. The Packers have won four straight. Green Bay has their bye-week next weekend.

These offenses have been firing on all cylinders, and the public is quick to back another high-scoring affair, but I say we'll see a much more defensive affair here between these two surging rivals.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the UNDER Broncos/Ravens.

As a situational capper, I constantly keep my eyes open for these types of games. With the majority of the early money once again expecting a higher-scoring shootout here between two teams that have played to plenty of high-scoring OVERs of late, this pick also definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Denver is now 5-3 after back-to-back victories. Granted, they've come against the Saints and the Panthers, so we have to take Bo Nix's results with a "grain of salt." And with a game at the Chiefs next weekend, the Broncos have to be careful in this spot to not to be tempted to look past to that high-profile divisional contest.

Baltimore has seen the total fly OVER in four straight, but it had its five-game win streak come to an end in last week's 29-24 upset loss at Cleveland. That fact though is important to us here as bettors though, as note that dating to last season the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite.

I'm expecting this contest to be decided by field position and by the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Cards/Fish.

Arizona is still alive at 3-4 following last weekend's 17-15 home win over the Chargers. 

The Dolphins have lost four of their last five and they'll be desperate to snap that slide.

Each team is desperate for a win, and I'm expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish.

The Cardinals offense is improving with their young receiving corps, which is good news because Arizona ranks among the worst in most defensive categories.

Tua Tagovailoa returns to the Miami offense, and I think he'll make a huge impact right away for this underperforming unit.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOY on the UNDER Ravens/Bucs.

After starting the year 0-2, the Ravens have posted four straight victories. Five of their six games have flown OVER the number. 

Despite that though, Baltimore has been the most dangerous offensively with its run game, led by dual-threat QB LaMar Jackson. With the majority of the general betting public going "one way," we're going to "go the other" here as far as the total is concerned.

The Bucs are 4-2 and four of their six have gone OVER the number. that includes in three straight after last week's 51-27 win over the Saints. Note though that dating to last year Tampa has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bucs are ranked sixth in rushing. 

These defenses are also really underrated as well in my opinion.

When you add up all of these factors, I say this O/U line is now TOO large, and the value has now swung the other way.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Panthers/Commanders.

Two teams in need of a victory collide on Sunday afternoon in the nation's capital and in my opinion, this O/U line is too high, making the UNDER the best wager in this particular matchup in my opinion.

Carolina is 1-5 after last week's 38-20 loss at Atlanta. It's off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight. This though is by far the largest total its had posted to it so far, with the previous high being 46.5 in Week 4 vs. Cincinnati. This Week 7 total is now TOO high in my opinion.

Washington had its four game win streak come to an end in last week's 30-23 loss at the Ravens, sending it to 4-2 on the season. The Commanders have also seen the total go OVER in four straight.

With the general betting public quick to back another high-scoring affair, I think the books have baited the majority.

While they go one way, we'll go the other on this total.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the OVER Eagles/Giants.

The Eagles are 3-2. They've traded wins/losses since the start of the year. After last week's 20-16 win over the Browns, they'll be hoping to snap this streak on the road in this important early season divisional battle.

They say divisional battles are the most important, and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. At 2-4, that's the truth this weekend for the Giants, who have also traded wins/losses since Week 2. After last week's 17-7 home loss to a desperate Bengals side, they'll be looking for this streak to continue. Note. after falling 20-15 to Dalls in Week 4, the Giants the responded with an explosive 29-20 win at Seattle.

New York is 0-3 at home. It'll be pushing the pace from start to finish here, in what essentially becomes a "do or die" game for the Giants.

Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL INSIDER on the OVER Bills/Jets.

It's a huge game for both sides. The Jets are now 2-3 after back-to-back losses, most recently falling 23-17 at Minnesota.

That prompted the franchise to fire head coach Robert Saleh and because of that, I'm expecting this New York offense to finally show up here on Monday night. These types of situations work one of two ways. Either the team responds, or it bombs. I'm banking on the former being the case!

Jeff Ullbrich will serve as interim head coach, meaning Aaron Rodgers will have even more control over things moving forward. I say that's a good thing, as far as this contest being a high-scoring one.

These teams split out last year, each winning a low-scoring game at home, but everything points to more of a shootout here in the opener this season.

Buffalo comes in equally motivated after two straight losses. Josh Allen was out to his best start ever to a season but has once again taken a step back.

But with these two gunslingers going head-to-head and playing with giant chips on their respective shoulders, I'm finally anticipating these offenses to post a productive game.

And because of that, I'm on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST TOY on the OVER Chargers/Broncos.

These AFC West Rivals are in need of a win and in what I anticipate will be a highly-competitive battle, I'm going to suggest grabbing the points.

Denver has won five straight at home in this series, and three straight overall over the Chargers.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Justin Herbert and the Chargers who were off back-to-back losses.

Denver enters on top form though after three straight victories. QB Bo Nix has looked progressively better each week and that progression will continue here on Sunday afternoon as well.

Look for these two offenses to finally catch fire and for this total to easily blast past the low number.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Washington/Baltimore.

Both of these teams have been playing to some high-scoring games to open the season, but I anticipate a much lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Washington is off a 34-13 win over Cleveland last week and it's won four in a row.

Baltimore is off a 41-38 OT win over Cincinnati last Sunday and it's now won three straight.

Most bettors are thinking that Jayden Daniels and LaMar Jackson are ready for an epic battle here, but these under-rated defenses are poised to "steal the show" in my estimation. While the majority goes one way, we'll go the other.

Washington allows 23 PPG, while Baltimore concedes 25.2. 

Dating to last season the Commanders have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOM on the UNDER Saints/Chiefs.

A rather lower total here on Monday Night Football, but not low enough in my opinion.

New Orleans is now 2-2 after back-to-back losses, and a Nationally televised game vs. the two-time defending champs on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked obviously.

The Saints have managed to post 36 combined points over their last two games, and it won't get any easier here in KC vs. this opportunistic Chiefs' defense that has gotten better as the season has progressed.

KC is 17-10 after last week's impressive 17-10 win at the Chargers.

After back-to-back road victories and now returning home, we think the Chiefs will be able to once again dictate the flow of this contest.

With the majority of the bettors flocking to the OVER, I'm going the other way because of all the reasons listed above.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOY on the UNDER Cards/49ers.

Both of these divisional opponents have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but now here in Week 5 I'm predicting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Arizona is just 1-3, and while three of four have flown OVER the number, the Cards have managed just 37 points combined over their last three games.

Their offense is going to be tested here on the road vs. this underrated 49ers' defense, which finally got back on track in last week's 30-13 home win over the Pats.

CMC is sidelined, and that makes this 49ers offense less dynamic as well.

The overall situation points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Pats.

Here's a great situational play. I base most of my O/U picks (in every sport), on "situations."

Miami is 1-3 and in desperate need of a win after three straight losses. Last week it was a 31-12 setback at Tennessee. 

New England is just 1-3 as well after three straight losses, most recently a 30-13 setback at San Francisco.

With each side pushing the pace like I'm suspecting to get back on track in this now crucial early divisional contest, everything points to these teams opening things up on offense and for the total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Tyler Huntley should be better this week for the Dolphins for sure. He has lots to work with on offense and will be more acclimated now.

The Pats had three costly turnovers last weekend. QB Jacob Brissett though has been given the green light here to try and maintain his starting role: “At this point, Jacoby is our starting quarterback,” NE head coach Jerod Mayo said. “I haven’t watched any film or anything like that. He’s been a great leader. ... We’ve got to watch the film. We’ve got a long flight to go back and watch the film and we’re always evaluating every single position.”

Look for these two desperate teams to fly well OVER this low number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Bills/Ravens.

While most are anticipating a high-scoring affair here, I believe we'll be in for more of a defensive one. 

The Ravens have seen the total go OVER in all three games this year, but note that dating to last season the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Buffalo is 3-0 SU and it's seen the total go OVER in two of three. This is the start of three straight on the road for the Bills.

Josh Allen and the Bills have looked great offensively, but I've been more impressed with Buffalo's defense, which is conceding 16 PPG. 

LaMar Jackson and the Ravens earned the high-scoring win over the Cowboys last weekend, but clearly the last thing the home side will want to do is turn this into a "shootout" with Allen.

Instead look for Jackson to manage this game while on offense.

These teams always play to tight, lower-scoring affairs, and everything once again points to that happening again this weekend.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV TOY on the OVER Steelers/Colts.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the OVER, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU, and it has seen all three games go UNDER the number so far. Note though, dating to late yar the Steelers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. A new team and look, but still a noteworthy stat.

The Colts are 1-2 after their 21-16 win here at home over Chicago last weekend. Two of three have dipped below the number this year for Indianapolis.

But as I say, I'm anticipating these teams to easily clear this really low total. Obviously the Steelers offense has been great to this point, but I say that Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will be able to consistently move the chains today. Taylor has completed a league-worst 49 percent of his passes, but he does lead the NFL in air yards per completion and explosive passes of 40-plus yards. 

I think these defenses can set up these offenses in some prime short-yardage situations as well.

It would be easy to look at these team's early numbers and automatically assume that we'll have the lowest-scoring game of the season here. And that is in fact what the majority of the public thinks, and what the oddsmakers are all trying to lead us to believe.

But I say these offenses finally start producing here in Week 4, as these up-and-coming quarterbacks duel it out on Sunday afternoon.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jags/Bills.

The 0-2 Jags will be pushing the pace here after falling 18-13 at home as 3.5-point favs to the Browns last weekend. 

The Bills cruised to a 31-10 win over Miami and there's no reason not to think they can't keep that offensive momentum rolling here.

Clearly, Trevor Lawrence is going to be given the green light here to try and get this offense rolling as the Jags look to avoid the much-dreaded 0-3 hole to start the season. 

Over two games though Lawrence has 382 passing yards, one TD and no INT's. The Bills struggled against the pass with Arizona here in Week 1 and that's going to again be the case here vs. this now desperate visiting side in my estimation.

The Jags will also have their hands full with Josh Allen, who has 371 yards passing and a 3:0 TD:INT to start the season.

With these two competent QB's going head-to-head, I say this total flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Ravens/Cowboys.

For the most part I bet "situations" when I bet totals (in every sport.) And so here's a great situational play on the UNDER in my opinion.

The Ravens have already hit the panic button after an 0-2 start following last week's 26-23 upset home loss to the Raiders as 8.5-point favorites. Baltimore though has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

The Cowboys are 1-1 after last week's humbling 44-19 loss at home to New Orleans. Dallas though has also seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

From a situational standpoint, I love how this one sets up to be a very defensive affair, with each side putting an added emphasis onto that side of the ball.

The Cowboys' defense catches a break facing an over-hyped Ravens offense which is really one-dimensional after Derrick Henry has averaged 65 YPG so far.

This one is going to be decided by field position and by the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOY on the OVER Pats/Jets.

The money is pretty evenly split here on the side and total, but for a couple of different reasons, I believe this total is a bit TOO low.

I think these division rivals will creep over this really low total as the game comes down the stretch.

New England has played pretty well I'd say so far, or likely better than expected. It won 16-10 at the Bengals in Week 1, before then losing a tough one to a tough Seattle team 23-20 at home in overtime last weekend.

43 points were scored in that one and I think we'll see a similar sort of pace and overall final combined score here as well. I don't think they're going to combine for 70 points or anything but in the mid to high 40's type thing.

I think the Pats can duplicate their offensive performance from last week here on the road at the Jets.

NY bounced back from a poor 32-19 Week 1 loss to the 49ers to win 24-17 at the Titans last weekend.

I also think that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets can keep that offensive momentum rolling this Thursday.

New York's strength was supposed to be on the defensive end though and so far that's not been the case, as it was torched by the 49ers and looked OK vs. a weak Tennessee offense.

Now back at home for the first time, I think that Rodgers is going to want to put on a show.

For all those great situational reasons, I'm rolling with the OVER on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Bills/Dolphins.

Buffalo's defense looked terrible in its 34-28 win over Arizona, but the Bills had to play from behind the entire game.

Now here on the road on the short week, I believe Buffalo's offense will take a back seat here. 

But the last thing that Miami will want to do is to turn this into a track meet with Josh Allen, Tua had over 300 yards passing in his team's 20-17 home win here over Jacksonville last weekend and I'm expecting a similar paced affair here on Thursday as well.

These teams last played on January 7th and the Bills pulled off the 21-14 road victory here.

Everything points to another lower-scoring battle here as well, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Chiefs.

Two of the favs in the AFC collide on Opening night and in my opinion, this game will be decided by field position and in the trenches.

Patrick Mahomes is 36-11 in his career at home and he's 4-1 vs. the Ravens (including the Playoffs.) 

As dynamic a player as LaMar Jackson is for the Baltimore, the Ravens are still breaking in a new offensive line and their game-plan will be to try and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands as much as possible. Jackson signed a huge off-season contract and Jackson is 11-2 ATS as a starter as an underdog.

The money is split pretty evenly on both the side and the total in this one, and while I am having a difficult time trying to come up with who will actually win this one, in my opinion everything points to a very defensive battle as far as the total is concerned.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOM on the UNDER Lions/49ers.

I had a play on the "over" in the Lions game and a play on the "under" in the 49ers game in the Divisional Round, part of my overall 4-0 Divisional Round showing.

Oddsmakers aren't giving the Lions much of a chance here. Either way, I feel that this one will be a tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring NFC Championship Game once it's all said and done.

These team's haven't played since 2021, and the 49ers scored the 41-33 road victory. Now on the West Coast in San Francisco though and I'm anticipating this contest being decided in the trenches, and by field position. 

The team that looks after the ball in this game is the one that's going to win this contest. With each side putting an added emphasis on establishing the run and limiting what their QB has to actually do here, this one definitely has all the makings of a tighter, and lower-scoring affair.

In my opinion, this number is high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Bucs/Lions.

Both teams played to lower-scoring UNDERS to open up the playoffs, but everything points to a much more wide-open and utlimately higher-scoring game here in Detroit in the divisional around in my opinion. 

Tampa is only 5-4 on the road SU, but 8-1 ATS away from friendly confines. Detroit is 7-2 SU at home and 5-4 ATS.

But for this one, I'm steering clear of the side and instead expecting high-scoring battle for sure.

Tampa's offense was firing on all cylinders in its 32-9 destruction of the Eagles and I don't see its defense being nearly as effective on the road here.

With these two starting QB's getting massive wins in the divisional round, each essentially also got a proverbial monkey off their backs as well with the victory.

Look for these two confident pivots to be the main focal point in tomorrow's summaries of this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL ROUND TOY on the UNDER Packers/49ers.

I had a play on Green Bay in its blowout win over the Cowboys. I also put out a late-breaking play on the OVER in that contest.

But now I'm expecting a completely opposite result here as far as the combined score is concerned here on the West Coast in the divisional round.

Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog.

Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven when playing with two or more weeks of rest.

I think this is a great situational play. This number is high, the play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Steelers/Bills.

When these teams played here on October 9th, 2022 the Bills won by a score of 38-3. While I do expect a more competitive battle here, I do think we'll see a similar final combined score in this one here on Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh won its final three games of the season behind great offensive play, combining for 81 points over that span. We can expect that offensive play to be carried over here.

Buffalo enters the playoffs as possibly the hottest team in the league after five straight wins to close things out. With Josh Allen keeping the foot on the gas like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Packers/Cowboys.

I'm expecting a wide-open shootout. This one is going to be decided by the two men under center.

The Packers started off slow, but they've turned things around behind the great play of Jordan Love. Love will be given the green light here and Dak Prescott will clearly be up for the challenge with such a high-powered offensive behind him, including the likes of star WR CeeDee Lamb.

Dallas averaged 37.4 PPG at home this year. Love registered a 122.2 rating in all indoor games this year along with a 9:0 TD:INT.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WC TOY on the OVER Dolphins/Chiefs.

I'm expecting a higher-scoring shootout in this one. 

Kansas City finished the season by winning three of its last four and an 11-6 record. The Chiefs saw the total go UNDER in the final three games, but note that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

These teams played in early November and the Chiefs won 21-14 here, and while that game did stay below the posted number, the overall situation that each team now finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends do make the OVER the correct call this time around.

Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Dolphins finished 11-6 as well, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing the final two games, including a crucial one to Buffalo last week. 

I just can't see either team sitting back and waiting for the other to make the first mistake here. It's going to be full speed ahead and a lot more "wide open" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe as far as the total is concerned.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Steelers/Ravens.

I think this is a great situational play. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs coming into this one, but just like their first contest of the year, a 17-10 Pittsburgh win at home, I'm anticipating another lower-scoring defensive battle. 

Situationally this one sets up to be a defensive battle. The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed and have nothing to play for here on paper, but they won't simply be rolling over. That said, there won't be any need to try and run up the score either. In fact, Baltimore's best strategy on offense will be to try and kill the clock as fast as possible to just end this game as fast as possible, so as to limit any potential costly injuries. 

Pittsburgh needs to win this game if it has any shot at a Wildcard. The Steelers have seen the total go OVER in four straight after last week's 30-23 victory, but despite that Pittsburgh has still seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

All signs point to the rematch in Baltimore also staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOY on the UNDER Packers/Vikes.

To say this is a "big" game for these 7-8 divisional foes would be a big understatement obviously.

Minnesota beat the Packers 24-10 in Green Bay as a one-point dog back in October, and note that the the Pack have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in the second game, as to what we saw in the first.

The Packers snapped a two-game slide with a 33-30 win at Carolina and they've now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. But that's also significant to note as Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Vikes are looking to snap their string of poor play after losing four of their last five, most recently a 30-24 loss to Detroit. 

The loser of this game is done for the season, so expect a "play-off like atmosphere" in this one, but as they say, "defense wins championships,"  and in my opinion, all signs definitely point to a very defensive affair here.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Falcons/Bears.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm now finally expecting those trends to end this weekend.

Atlanta snapped a two-game slide in last week's 29-10 win over the Colts and I have no reason not to believe it can't carry over that offensive momentum here.

The Bears are playing their best football of the season and won't be "rolling over" here after winning four of their last five, including a 27-16 victory here over Arizona last weekend.

The bottom line here is that neither team has been mathematically eliminated yet, and I'm expecting this extreme sense of competition that they'll play with here will translate into a wide-open high-scoring shootout.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the OVER Giants/Eagles.

This is a great situational play. Despite being eliminated from contention at 5-9, the Giants won't be rolling over here as they attempt to play spoiler vs. their division rival.

New York had won three straight before last week's 24-6 loss at New Orleans. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 9 or fewer points in.

The Eagles will be beyond motivated here obviously after three straight SU/ATS losses (note though that Philly has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.)

I like betting on motivated teams when betting "overs" in the NFL and that's the case here for sure.

All signs point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* THURSDAY NIGHT TOY on the OVER Saints/Rams.

It's a big game here on Thursday night and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks.

Both teams are 7-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road, while the Rams are 4-3 at home.

After three straight losses, the Saints have now won back-to-back games, posting a combined 52 points in the process. 

The Rams have won four of their last five and combined to score 149 points over that span. With two road games at the Gians and the 49ers, it's sort of "now or never" for the Rams right now.

These teams played in New Orleans last year and the Saints posted the 27-20 win. I'm expecting another competitive battle here in LA on Thursday night, but one that sees a few more points hit the board.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY on the OVER Eagles/Hawks.

I live in the Pacific Northwest. At this time last year it was well below freezing with many feet of snow piled high on the side of the road.

This year El Nino (or is it El Nina?!) has come around again and it's quite warm for this time of the season. Monday will be a calm night. No rain, no wind and decently warm. 

It's perfect football weather and I think that'll help these hungry teams in eclipsing this posted total sooner, rather than later.

When I bet on "overs" in the NFL, I like betting on motivated teams. Teams that can't afford to sit back and wait for the other one to make the first mistake, but instead will have to attack from the get go and keep the foot on the gas until the final whistle.

And that'll be the case here for these two teams in my estimation. 

Philadelphia is 10-3, but two of its three losses have come in the last two games. 

After falling 42-19 at home to the 49ers, last week the Eagles fell 33-13 at Dallas (note though Philly has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS divisional road loss as an underdog.)

The Seahawks are now just 6-7 after four straight losses. Seattle's great start is firmly in the rear-view mirror, but it's clearly "now or never" for the struggling Seahawks.

As I said, I like betting on motivated teams when betting OVERS in the NFL and it goes without saying that each of these teams will be risking life and limb in trying to secure a victory here.

But these defenses should be able to set up their offenses as well. 

While they've each played to some lower-scoring games of late, the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends, all point to this Monday Night game eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOW on the UNDER Jets/Dolphins.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here on Sunday.

New York is 5-8, including 2-3 on the road, while Miami is 9-4, inculding 5-1 at home. 

The Jets are off the 30-6 win over Houston, which snapped a four-game slide.

They play with revenge here after the 34-13 loss at Miami earlier in the season and NY has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Miami is oft the listless 28-27 home loss to Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite, and I'm expecting it to double-down defensively this week after that mental lapse.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bucs/Packers.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting much more of a defensive affair here finally on Sunday afternoon.

This is a huge game for both teams, and as such, I'm expecting a "war of attrition" in this one. 

Tampa Bay is 6-7, and so too is Green Bay.

The Bucs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but that's significant to take note of, as Tampa Bay has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

This one definitely has all the makings of a tight, lower-scoring defensive-battle, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Pats/Steelers.

A really low total here for a number of different reasons, but a little TOO low in my estimation.

New England is 2-10. It's lost five straight, scoring 47 points combined. Last week it fell 6-0 to to the Chargers. But note that the Pats have seen the total go OVER the number in a near-perfect five of their last six after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. 

Pittsburgh though is 7-4. It's also coming off a loss though, falling 24-10 at home to the lowly Cardinals. These two teams combined for ten points last week, hence the super low total.

New England's defense continues to be decent, but now after three straight games of putting its offense in a position to win, but only failing miserably each time, I think the unit has a major collapse finally here on the road.

The Steelers are allowing 19.1 PPG, while averaging just 16. Mitch Trubisky is under center for the home side, and last week he filled in decently when QB Kenny Pickett went down with injury, finishing 11 of 17 for 117 yards and a TD. 

Look for great defense to set up these hungry offenses and for this total to creep OVER this super low number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Chargers/Patriots.

At 2-9, the Patriots are out of the running for a playoff spot, while the 4-7 Chargers are still mathematically in the conversation.

Regardless, two teams that have nothing to lose but another game collide here and I think we'll see some offensive fireworks.

The Patriots stink and their QB issue remains a problem. New England has lost four straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight. New England though has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

LA is off three straight losses of its own, which is also significant to note in this case as the Chargers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

With each team opening things up offensively like I anticipate, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

10* OVER Chiefs/Raiders (AFC WEST TOY)

Both teams have played to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to come to an end here this evening.

KC is 7-3, including 3-1 on the road. 

The Chiefs though have now played to six straight UNDERS after last week's 21-17 home loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl rematch. Note though that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Las Vegas is 5-6. It's 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three. The Raiders are playing a lot better over the last month, and despite now having seen the total go UNDER in four straight, note that the Chiefs have in fact still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Raiders two-game win streak did come to an end last time out as well in the 20-13 setback at Miami.

With both teams looking to bounce back off losses in this important contest, and when taking into account the rest of the stats and situational factors listed above, everything in my opinion does indeed point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Browns/Broncos.

Here's a great situational play. Cleveland is 7-3 and it's won three in a row. It's defied the odds and gotten great defensive play, combined with great special teams play.

Denver is 5-5 now after winning four straight. The Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

These are the two hottest teams in the league right now and I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Jets.

This is the first ever Black Friday NFL game and I'm expecting this one to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch as far as the toal is concerned.

Miami is 7-3, while New York is 4-6. The Jets now turn to QB Tim Boyle to right the ship. The offense has no where to go but up, as NY has scored just one TD combined over three games this month. Boyle is known for throwing INT's, which will only set up this dangerous Miami offense with lots of great field position.

Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four and that's why I'm steering clear of the side, but note that the Fish are still averaging 30.5 PPG this year, which is ranked No. 1. 

Expect this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Raiders/Dolphins.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally on Sunday.

Las Vegas is 5-5 and Miami is 6-3. 

The Raiders made some changes out of necessity and they've won two straight. They've seen the total go UNDER the number in two straight, but note that Las Vegas has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.

The road ahead for the Raiders is a brutal one, with KC, Minnesota and the Chargers at home up next, followed by another game at KC. It's do or die, now or never for the visitors.

Miami has had a week off after its 21-14 loss to KC, but with a week off to prepare and plan, I'm expecting the Fish to keep the foot on the gas offensively from start to finish.

A great situational play on the OVER.

(more analysis avaialble)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Broncos/Bills.

This is a really big game for both teams. The Broncos have seemingly turned the corner with their performance, as they come out of their bye week off two straight quality victories.

Denver has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that the Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Another win, and Denver is right back in the race.

Buffalo is now just 5-4 after a 24-18 loss to Cincinnati last week. The Bills are desperate to break the slide and get their offense back on track here as well after seeing four of their last five games go UNDER the number.

Expect these two veteran QB's to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Panthers/Bears.

What are these teams playing for?! Not for a possible playoff spot, that's for sure.

They're playing for pride. Coaches are coaching for their jobs and players are playing for theirs.

This may have seemed like a possible great Thursday night matchup before the season started, but Carolina enters at 1-7 overall, including 0-4 on the road, while Chicago is 2-7 overall, including 1-3 at home. 

The short week is going to effect these defenses in what I anticipate will be a wide-open offensive affair, rather than a grind-it-out defensive one.

This number is a little low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* MNF TOG on the OVER Chargers/Jets.

These teams have struggled with offensive consistency all year, but I say this O/U line is just a bit TOO low here now.

Clearly, scoring is DOWN big time around the NFL this year. That said, at some point these lop-sided discrepancies will start correcting themselves.

Regardless, these are two highly-motivated clubs and I'm expecting "duel" here between these two improving pivots, in what I anticipate will be a "shootout" in the end.

In fact, this total may eclipse the posted number by half time in my estimation.

Either way, this number is indeed MUCH too low, as note that LA has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten (70% of the time), after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Everything points to this week's MNF total flying OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Raiders.

The O/U lines keep dropping each week. This one I think is now a little TOO low. 

This non-conference game will be much more wide-open than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. 

Clearly, this is a big game for each struggling team. Another loss would be difficult to navigate past moving forward.

New York has now seen the total go UNDER the number in six straight after its 13-10 OT loss to the Jets last week. It's now or never for Danny Dimes and company.

The Raiders shook up their entire team this week and I think those changes will result in more offensive production on the field of play.

Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(more analysis available.) 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOY on the OVER Bucs/Texans.

Neither team has played to many high-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to finally end this weekend, as I expect this non-conference game to be less intense defensively, and much more wide-open offensively.

It's a big game for each team and with a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. Or at least, they're trying to lead us to believe they're evenly matched.

Whatever the case, each team comes in at 3-4 and hungry to snap losing slides. Tampa lost its third straight in last week's 24-18 setback at Buffalo, and note that the Bucs have seen the total go OVER the number in three of it slast four after three or more SU losses in a row.

Houston has been more competitive than many predicted, but it's still coming off an inconsistent 15-13 setback to Carolina, which came into that game winless. 

The Texans have now seen the total go UNDER in four straight, but despite Houston going UNDER last time out, note that they've still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIVISION TOY on the OVER Titans/Steelers/

What's up with these super low totals? Clearly, scoring is down around the NFL this year. These are very similar to preseason totals.

Either way, I think this total is now just TOO low. This is a really big game for both teams. Tennessee is 3-4 and off a momentum-building 28-23 home win over Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog.

Pittsburgh is 4-3 and ready to bounce back after last week's 20-10 home loss vs. Jacksonville.

Despite the loss the Steelers have still won four of their last six and the short week here works in their favor by playing at home.

Will Levis is in for Tennessee, and it's Mitch Trubisky for the Bears. These guys have nothing to lose and will be given the green light here. They'll both be susceptible to turnovers, but that will only set up the other team with great field position.

I say this total is much too low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jets/Giants.

Neither team has played to many high-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally in the Big Apple as the AFC and the NFC collide to see who will rule the City so nice, they named it twice!

The Jets are 3-3 and the Giants are 2-5. It's a big game for each side, as a victory will keep the winner relevant in the divisional race. Another loss though and these teams are in trouble.

From a situational stand-point it sets up great to be a more of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a defensive affair. If this was a divisional contest, or even a conference contest, I'd likely be looking at this being more of a defensive battle, but I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later once it's all said and done.

(More analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the OVER Eagles/Commanders.

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end on Sunday afternoon.

How will Philadelphia respond after a poor performance? That was the big question last weekend for the Eagles after they inexplicably fell 20-14 at the Jets. 

But Philly erased all bad thoughts with a resounding 31-17 home win over the Dolphins and I expect the Eagles to keep that momentum rolling here in this important divisional matchup.

They say divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side.

Washington pushed the Eagles to the limit back in Week 4, eventually falling 34-31 in OT in Philadelphia and while this contest may not reach that total, I still expect these teams to easily blast past this lower number once again.

Washington is off the 14-7 loss at the Giants, but note that the Commanders have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was a favorite and held to 9 or less points in.

Expect another hard-fought battle between these teams, this time in the Nation's capital, with a total that flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Bills.

The Bucs are 3-3, and they've seen the total go 1-5 to the UNDER. 

The Bills are 4-3 and they've seen the total go 3-4 to the UNDER.

Tampa is most recently off the 16-13 loss to Atlanta. Baker Mayfield has been decent though this year with 1,363 passing yards and an 8:4 TD:INT. 

So far the Bucs defense has been up to the task most weekend, so far allowing just 17.3 PPG, but I'm expecting that unit to stumble here on the road in this difficult venue and at this time of year.

The Bills fell 29-25 at division rival New England last week as an 8.5-point favorite, and they've seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite in their previous outing.

I say these two competent QB's battle it out and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER 49ers/Vikes.

Here's a great situational play. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one definitely falls right into my "wheel house." 

San Francisco had seen the total go OVER in two straight before its 19-17 loss at Cleveland last week as an 8.5-point favorite. Note that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite.

Minnesota is off a KEY 19-13 win at Chicago last week and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. The Vikes are 2-4 and still have hope in the division at this point once again.

I just see the 49er keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and with the home side needing to keep pace, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

The play is the OVER.

(more analysis available.)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Bills/Pats.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon.

Buffalo is 4-2 after a 14-9 win over the Giants last week. The Bills have now seen the total go UNDER in two straight.

New England is 1-5 after its 21-17 loss at the Raiders. The week before that it lost 34-0 at home to the Saints, and the week before that it fell 38-3 at Dallas. The Patriots have now seen the total go UNDER in five straight games, which is significant to note here as New England has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Pats are giving up 25 PPG, and I don't see the Bills taking it easy on them. At the same time, clearly Belichick has to open up the playbook here on offense moving forward for NE.

I say that the overall situation that each club finds itself in, combined with the above strong O/U stat, and the fact that this total is low due to the fact that these teams have played to so many UNDERS of late, has finally driven this total a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

This total is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOW on the OVER Falcons/Bucs.

Neither team has been involved in many high-scoring affairs this season, but I say those trends end on Sunday afternoon on what I anticipate will be a much more wide-open contest than what this O/U line is suggesting.

Tampa Bay has now seen the total go UNDER in three straight after its 20-6 loss to the Lions last time out. Note though that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

ATL has seen the total go UNDER in four straight now after its 24-16 home loss to Washington as a 1-point favorite. That's plenty of UNDERS from both sides as I mentioned off the top, but that fact has for sure only helped in driving this particular total this Sunday afternoon, a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

All the offensive and defensive numbers to this point from each team would indicate a lower-scoring game, but the overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS O/U trends do indeed make the OVER the correct call in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER Jags/Saints.

I think this non-conference game will be completely wide-open offensively and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The Saints are 3-3 and the Jags 4-3 and the Saints are 3-3. 

New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in all six of its games so far this year, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular Thursday total a couple of points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion.

The Saints' defense looked great over the first 1/4 of the season, but it sure came back down to Earth vs. CJ Stroud and the Texans last week. Granted, it was only 20 points, but c'mon, it was a rookie QB we're talking about here!

The Jaguars are rolling and Trevor Lawrence is coming off a huge game in hammering the Colts 37-20 on Sunday. Lawrence banged up his knee and is having an MRI, but he's expected to get the start here. CJ Beathard is his backup, but whoever gets the start, this O/U line has already been adjusted to take this situation into account. Whoever gets the start, I still really love this play.

The Jags have 15 takeaways this year, which leads the NFL. This is a team that can hurt you in every phase.

The Saints as I say have looked great defensively so far, but last week Derek Carr had his best yardage game so far in New Orleans with 353 yards. His team was 0 for 3 in the redzone, but now here at home, I expect those numbers to improve dramatically.

On the short week, I believe it's going to be the defensive units that suffer the most in this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Bills.

Danny Dimes and the Giants exceeded expectations last year, going OVER their season win total. Clearly, they've taken a big step back here in 2023/24. 

They're 1-4 right now. At 1-5, their season will officially be over. At 2-4, the Giants would have a chance.

Note that Buffalo and its opponents have already averaged 49.5 points per game at home, which is quite a bit higher than what this particular total is set at. 

New York away games have only averaged 43.7 PPG this year, which is just slightly less than this O/U line for this one.

Buffalo has been trading low-scoring games, with high-scoring ones after its Week 1 22-16 OT loss at the Jets, and Week 5's 25-20 setback across the pond to the Jaguars. 

Note though that the Bills have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite.

Depite New York's issues on the offensive end to this point, I'm expecting a more wide-open affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here on Sunday night.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Pats/Raiders.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to start the season, but I'm anticipating a shootout here finally between two clubs in dire straights.

The Patriots are off the humbling 34-0 loss to New Orleans at home, which was preceded by a 38-3 loss at Dallas.

At 2-4 the Patriots have a chance in the weak AL East, but at 1-5, it's time for Bill Bellichick to start considering his next move.

Las Vegas is coming off a big 17-13 home win over the Packers. The Raiders have seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, but note that Las Vegas has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

It's now or never for Mac Jones. Jimmy Garopolo will certainly be motivated here facing his former team as well.

With these two highly-motivated QB's going head-to-head, I finally look for these teams to be involved in a higher-scoring "shootout." 

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Saints/Texans.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm expecting those trends to finally end this weekend in this interesting non-conference matchup.

The Saints have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in all five games they've played so far this year, including in their 34-0 win at the Patriots last weekend. Great defensive play has seen the Saints start the season 3-2, but I think we'll finally see a more wide-open offensive affair here this weekend. Or at least, I absolutely believe that the fact that New Orleans has played to so many low-scoring defensive battles to open the season, has influenced the oddsmakers this week, as this O/U line is definitely now TOO low, and the value now swings the other way as far as the total is concerned this week. 

Houston is 2-3. It had its two game win streak snapped in last week's 21-19 loss at Atlanta. 

The Texans' CJ Stroud has yet to throw an interception and I think he and the Saints' Derek Carr will be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ACROSS THE POND TOTAL on the OVER Ravens/Titans.

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here across the pond.

Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that LaMar Jackson and company have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Tennessee has also played to three straight UNDERS after a 23-16 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite at Indianapolis last weekend, but note that the Titans have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite.

The Ravens are off the tough loss to Pittsburgh, but I think we have a classic "duel" on our hands here between veteran quarterbacks this week. 

If you add up the offensive and defensive numbers, the public will be quick to jump on the UNDER, but I say the situation and the numbers/trends point to the OVER as the correct call.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the UNDER Broncos/Chiefs.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but on the short week here on Thursday night, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair.

The Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after suffering a humiliating 31-21 home loss to the lowly Jets as 2.5-point favs last week. Note though that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Sean Payton and the Broncos are struggling, and for all intents and purposes, this is Denver's "do or die" game. A 1-5 hole would be too big to climb out of. Clearly, the last thing the Broncos can do is to turn this into a shootout and try to hang with Mahomes. Denver has been terrible defensively this year, but it'll be all hands on deck to try and somehow pull off an upset.

And I just don't see KC running up the score here. I think the Chiefs defense though has been great overall, allowing no more than 20 points in any game so far this season.

Russell Wilson has struggled with consistency, and I expect that'll again be the case here in the National spotlight and on the short week.

This one sets up to be a defensive affair, and that's what I'm expecting.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL DOMINATION on the UNDER Jets/Broncos.

Despite their offenses in turmoil most weekends, both of these teams have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season.

New York has seen the total go 2-2 so far after last week's 23-20 loss to KC.

Denver though has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after its first win of the year in last week's 31-28 win at Chicago. Previous to that the Broncos lost 70-20 to the Dolphins.

That's a whopping 98 points that Denver has conceded over the last two games, but thankfully this now highly-motivated defense catches a break facing the anemic Jets, who look complete lost and in dire need of an identity.

Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of chemistry magically coming together for Zach Wilson here in Week 5. The only chance NY has is to establih the run and to turn Wilson into a game manager, while hoping that tough defensive play and special teams will be the difference-maker.

I see this game being won in the trenches and by field position and because of that, I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP