Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers OVER 45 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the OVER Lions/Packers. We have a big time NFC North battle here in Green Bay on Thursday night, and on the short week, I say it's each team's defense that suffers. Both teams are 2-1 SU. Green Bay is 3-0 ATS, while Detroit is 2-1 ATS. Honestly, it would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, and that's why I'm steering clear of a side. I just expect this one to be decided by the men under center in Jordan Love and Jared Goff. The Lions are coming off a 20-6 win over the Falcons, while the Packers squeaked out the 18-17 win over the Saints. Two lower-scoring defensive battles, but I'm definitely anticipating a faster-paced, and ultimatley higher-scoring game here. All signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (Additional analysis available.) Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 45 | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Eagles/Bucs. I think the Eagles defense will dominate in this game and shut down Baker Mayfield and company. And the last thing that the home side wants to do is to turn this into a "track meet" with Jalen Hurts and the high-flying Eagles. The Bucs have played to two straight OVERS, but with a game at division rival New Orleans next weekend, I think the home side is going to get caught "looking ahead" (as outlined in more detail on my picks on the Eagles here in this 3-game Monday night report.) I expect each side to try and establish the run throughout on this one and while they've both been involved in several high-scoring games to begin the season, all signs finally point to more of a defensive-battle here on Monday night. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 38 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the OVER Browns/Steelers. Both teams struggled to put points on the board in Week 1, and that's helped in pushing this Week 2 total a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. Cleveland comes in off a 24-3 win at home over Cincinnati. Hard to get a firm readon on the Browns, as the result was so lop-sided an upexpected. Clearly the Bengals have their issues, so I say the book is still out on Cleveland right now. Can't deny the defense looked great against Joe Burrow and company, but now on the road facing this determined Steelers team that was humbled 30-7 here at home by San Francisco. The 49ers defense was a strength of the team last year, and it is again this season as well. DeShaun Watson finished with 154 yards passing and a TD, along with another rushing TD for Cleveland, and I believe he can build off that performance with an even better one here on the National stage. Last year Cleveland was ranked 19th in league in average points allowed per game at 21.2. The Steelers run defense was terrible last week, as Christian McCaffrey gouged them for 151 yards and a TD. That's not good news facing this run-heavy Browns offense. QB Kenny Pickett had 232 yards passing and a TD. He also had two costly INT's. Either way, I say this one comfortably eclipses the number down the stretch, with each side improving significantly on the offensive side of the ball here in Week 2. This number is indeed low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 124 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC EAST TOY on the UNDER Dolphins/Pats. New England's defense once again looked sharp in last week's 25-20 loss to the Eagles. Mac Jones had 315 yards passing, but averaged only 5.5 yards per throw. The defense though I thought looked excellent once again for the Pats. The Dolphins pulled off the unlikely upset on the road last week, coming from behind to knock off the Chargers 36-34 as 3-point dogs. Now they're favored on the road vs. a division rival. Next week they're back at home to play Denver. It's New England with its back against the wall early. The game-plan will remain the same for Jones and company. Long sustained drives on offense, combined with suffocating defensive play. I say the overall situation definitely points to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the UNDER Cowboys/Giants. It's a big divisional matchup, and neither team will want to start off the year 0-1 to the other. I think we're going to see a very defensive affair on Sunday, rather than a high-scoring "run and gun" shootout. I just think that each will be committed to the run throughout, and each will be extremely careful here in not to have any costly turnovers. New York doesn't want to get into a shootout with Dak Prescott. I say this game is decided in the trenches and by field position, and because of that, I'm on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on the UNDER Lions/Chiefs. I usually take a "contrarian" approach over the first few weeks of the season, and that's what I'm doing here for sure. The general betting public will be excited and quick to hammer the "over" after both the Lions and Chiefs put together such great offensive campaigns last year, but I think there's enough reason to believe that each offense will need a bit of time to start "firing on all cylinders" again. KC has had to replace several key members on offense, and that works in our favor here as well. While the rest of the World goes one way, I'm going the other. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 50.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 220 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Chiefs/Eagles. The big game, and each offense will be leaning heavily on its run game to alleviate the pressure off these two dynamic QB's. Each has been injured over the last month, and they'll be cautious to limit their mistakes. These are two of the best defenses in the league. I believe the Eagles' pass-rush will slow down Mahomes here. With each side committed to establishing its run game like I believe, I'm expecting a lower-scoring UNDER in this year's Super Bowl. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER 49ers/Eagles. These teams are genuinely very evenly matched. And the oddsmakers believe the same thing with the 2.5-point opening spread. Both teams possess awesome defenses, but I firmly believe that this NFC Conference Championship will be decided by the two men under center. Both Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts are poised to "steal the show" in this one. One thing that San Francisco hasn't had to do much, is to "play from behind." That could very well be the case today. And if it's not, it just means that Hurts will be given the green light to open up the offense. This O/U line is a few points lower than it really could/should be in my opinion. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills UNDER 49 | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL on the UNDER Bengals/Bills. 20 days before this game will be played, Damar Hamlin collapsed from a heart attack and the game between the Bengals and the Bills was cancelled. It's a big game obviously, with a lot on the line. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win. It's going to be a competitive battle, but the team that plays the best defensively is going to come out on top. These offenses are a "wash." These defenses are underrated. Both teams closed out the regular season with some high-scoring affairs, but I expect this particular game to be won today by field position and in the trenches. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Raiders/Chiefs. As note that Oakland has seen the total go OVER the number in four of five on the road this year, while KC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of four against the division. I expect these divisional foes to battle it out and for this one to fly above the number as it comes down the stretch. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 39.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* the UNDER Chiefs/Broncos. Both teams clearly struggle with offensive consistency from game to game this year, but each possesses extremely talented defensive units. I think points will definitely be at a premium tonight. And note that KC has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five on the road, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four following its bye week. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Browns/Ravens. Note that Cleveland has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six against conference opponents this year, while Baltimore has seen the total go OVER in five of its last eight off a win against a division rival. Cleveland has the league’s worst defense, I’m expecting a wide open affair and for this one to sail OVER sooner rather than later. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
11-03-16 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10* PUNISHER on OVER Falcons/Bucs. No need to overthink this one. Atlanta is the league’s highest scoring team and the Bucs defense is allowing at least 27 PPG. It’s a big divisional matchup and on the short week, I think it’s going to be the defenses which suffer the most. Look for each team to open up the playbook and for this total to soar OVER as it comes down the stretch. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers OVER 45.5 | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 6 m | Show | |
8* CODE RED BLOWOUT on the OVER Bears/Packers. Note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER in 12 of its last 19 on the road, while Green Bay has seen the total go over in six of seven home games where the number was set between 45.5 and 49 points. Play the over. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 42.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
The Giants are sixth in the league with 400 yards per game of offense. The Vikes have been dominant defensively and poor offensively, but will be forced to match pace. While most will be going one way, we’re going the other as I expect these two teams to open up the playbook and for this total to eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 44 | 7-22 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 21 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL CODE RED BLOWOUT on the OVER. Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER in five of its last eigth as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER in its last three against the AFC East. Play the OVER. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on UNDER Falcons/Saints. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in 13 of its last 17 on the road, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the number in seven of its last 12 against the division. This number is just a little bit high. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
10* TOTAL CODE RED BLOWOUT on UNDER Texans/Patriots. This is a “common sense” play. The Texans run game has been a strength offensively, as Brock Osweiler has three TD’s and three INT’s so far. The defense though has been spectacular, already having forced five turnovers through two games. The Pats LaGarrete Blount has also been a force for New England on the ground, and with the QB issues for New England, obviously the home side will be focused on its ground assault as well. All signs point to a “chess match,” rather than a wide open shootout. Play the under. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 42 | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL PUNISHER on OVER Eagles/Bears. Both teams will come out fired up here. The Eagles posted 29 points in their 29-10 win over the Browns. Chicago will also be looking to jump-start its offense after falling to the Texans in Week 1. I expect both team’s to open up the playbook offensively and for this total to sneak over the number late. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 2433 h 45 m | Show |
10* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Rams/49ers. No need to overthink this one. The Rams averaged only 19.2 PPG last year and start the erratic Case Keenum at QB. The 49ers were even worse with an average of 14.9 PPG and clearly have more questions than answers on the offensive side of the ball. With both offenses concentraing on the run, expect a classic lower-scoring UNDER. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos OVER 43 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -105 | 2335 h 5 m | Show |
10* TOP TOTAL on OVER Panthers/Broncos. These are a couple of the league’s best offenses going head to head and when they played last, the total stayed well below the posted number, as Denver would prevail 24-10. Cam Newton though will be out for some revenge today and with many months to prepare for this opening contest, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that Carolina has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 17 on the road, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in its last two “Thursday” night games. Play the over. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers look for their first championship crown in franchise history. Cam Newton has completed 70 percent of his passes for 496 yards, with three touchdowns and one interception. Greg Olsen and Corey Brown have combined to catch passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns. The rushing attack is gaining 148 yards a game with the bulk f the yards coming from Jonathan Stewart with 189 yards and two touchdowns. They are allowing just 19.5 points and 345 yards a game. Roman Harper, Jared Allen and Thomas Davis are questionable. The Denver Broncos look for their first Super Bowl title since the 1998 season. Peyton Manning has completed 55.1 percent of his passes for 398 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have combined to catch passes for 199 yards. The rushing attach has gained 104 yards a game with C.J. Anderson having picked up 144 yards and one touchdown. Denver is allowing just 17 points and 366 yards per game. T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart are questionable. Both teams play great defense. I am looking for a close low scoring game with field position and field goals playing a big role. Play on the UNDER. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | 15-49 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
The Arizona Cardinals hope to reach their first Super Bowl since the 2008 season. Carson Palmer completed 61 percent of his passes in the last round for 349 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown caught passed for 258 yards and one touchdown. The rushing attack gained just 40 with David Johnson picking up 35 yards on 15 carries. They allowed 20 points and 386 yards to the packers. The Carolina Panthers look for their first Super Bowl appearance since the 2003 season. Cam Newton completed 72.7 percent of his passes against Seattle for 161 yards, with one touchdown and zero interceptions. Greg Olsen and Jerricho Cotchery caught passes forr 99 yards and one touchdown. The ground game rushed for 144 yards with Jonathan Stewart gaining 106 yards and two touchdowns. They allowed 24 points and 403 yards per game. I am looking for a low scoring game that could come down to the last possession. Play on the Under. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-24-16 | Patriots v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | 18-20 | Loss | -108 | 41 h 13 m | Show | |
The New England Patriots are trying to reach their third Super Bowl appearance since the 2011 season. Tom Brady is completing 66.7 percent of his passes during the playoffs for 302 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski have combined to catch passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns. The rushing attack is averaging just 38 yards in the playoffs, with Steven Jackson gaining 16 yards on six carries. Defensively, they have allowed 20 points and 378 yards. The Denver Broncos are trying to reach their second Super Bowl in the last three seasons. Peyton Manning completed 56.8 percent of his passes in the playofffs for 222 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas combined to catch passed for 125 yards. The rushing attack gained 109 yards with C.J. Anderson amassing 72 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, they allowed 16 points and 396 yards per game. Both teams should be ale to put up points in this one. This game should easily go over the total Play on the OVER. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-17-16 | Steelers v. Broncos UNDER 40 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 38 h 45 m | Show | |
The Pittsburgh Steelers look to reach their third conference championship under coach Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger completed 58.1 percent of his passes for 229 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions in last weeks round 1 win over the Bengals.He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Antonio Brown and Fitzgerald Toussaint combined for 179 receiving yards. The rushing attack gained 167 yards with Jordan Todman gained 65 yards on 11 carries. Pittsburgh allowied 16 points and 279 yards in round 1. Antonio Brown is out, DeAngelo Williams and Wil Johnson are questionable. The Denver Broncos look to reach their second conference championship in the last three seasons. Peyton Manning has completed 59.8 percent of his passes this season for 2,249 yards, with nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have combined to catch passes for 2,439 yards and 12 touchdowns. The rushing attack averaged 107.4 yards with Ronnie Hillman having gained 863 yards and he scored seven touchdowns. They allowed 18.5 points and 283.1 yards a game. Demarcus Ware and Omar Bolden are questionable. Without knowing o well Pittsburgh's quarterback and the loss of Brown and probably Williams the Steeler's offense is in shambles. I am not 100% on how well Manning will be for the Broncos. Both teams play good defense so see a low scoring game. Play on the Under. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 43 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
The Kansas City Chiefs look to reach their first conference championship since 1993. Alex Smith completed 77.3 percent of his passes in the first round of the playoffs for 190 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin caught passes for 157 yards while Chris Conley caught a touchdown pass. The rushing attack gained 141 with Spencer Ware gaining 67 of them and he scored one touchdown. Defensively, Kansas City allowed zero points and 226 yards per game. The New England Patriots look to reach the conference championship for a fifth straight season. Tom Brady completed 64.4 percent of his passes this season for 4,770 yards, with 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman have combined to catch passes for 1,868 yards and 18 touchdowns. The running game averaged 87.8 yards with Brandon Bolden gaining 207 yards on 63 carries. Defensively, New England allowed 19.7 points and 339.4 yards per game. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games. The Patriots are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. New England is well rested and should have some players back for this game. Macklin is a big loss for Kansas City.KC defense pitched a shutout last week but that wont happen against the pats offense. The only question is will KC be able to score to put this game over and i think they will score just enough Play on the OVER This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-03-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | 36-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
The Seattle Seahawks look to win double-digit games for the fourth straight season. Russell Wilson has completed 68.1 percent of his passes this season for 3,827 yards, with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse have combined to catch passes for 1,674 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. The rushing attack has averaged 141.6 yards with Wilson having gained 541 yards and one touchdown. They have allowed 18.1 points and 295.9 yards per game. The Arizona Cardinals have a shot at the top seed in the NFC with a victory here. Carson Palmer has completed 64.5 percent of his passes this season for 4,542 yards, with 34 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown have combined to catch passes for 2,118 yards and 15 touchdowns. The rushing attack has averaged 126 yards with David Johnson having gained 556 yards and eight touchdowns. They have allowed 18.5 points and 319.5 yards per game. Both teams play outstanding defense. Neither team may score 20 points in this one. Play on the Under. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-03-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 39.5 | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys are a disappointing 4-11 this season. The offense is averaging just 16.8 points a game on 323.3 yards per game. Kellen Moore started last week for Dallas and completed 50 percent of his passes with one touchdown and four interceptions. Darren McFadden leads the ground game with 997 yards and three touchdowns. The defense is giving up 22.7 points and 342.2 yards per game. The Washington Redskins are 8-7 this season and finished first in the NFC East. The offense is averaging 23.6 points a game on 348.3 yards. Kirk Cousins has completed 69.5 percent of his passes this season with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Alfred Morris leads grounf game with 651 yards. The is allowing 23.7 points and 371.9 yards. Dallas has been awful all year. I think the total is a little low in this one and I like the game to go over. Play on the OVER> This is a 10* play. | |||||||
12-20-15 | Browns v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
The Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel has completed 61 percent of his passes this season for 1,203 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions Gary Barnidge and Travis Benjamin have combined to catch passes for 1,768 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Cleveland Browns are averaging 85.9 yards on the ground with Isaiah Crowell gaining 542 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Cleveland is allowing 27.5 points and 385.2 yards per game. The Seattle Seahawks going for their fifth straight win. Russell Wilson has completed 68.8 percent of his passes this season for 3,289 yards, with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett have combined to catch passes for 1,400 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season. The Seattle Seahawks are averaging 144.8 yards on the ground with Wilson leading the team in rushing due to injuries. He has 456 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Seattle is allowing 18.1 points and 307.8 yards per game. Wilson has been lightening up lately and Manziel has the potential to score some points for both teams in this one. I see a lot of points scored in this one. Play on the OVER. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
11-22-15 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 41 | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
The Denver Broncos have lost two straight games. Brock Osweiler is completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 146 yards this season, with one touchdown and one interception. Peyton Manning is out with a foot injury. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have combined to catch passes for 1,455 yards and five touchdowns. The ground game is averaging 86 yards a game with Ronnie Hillman gaining 426 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, Denver is allowing 18.7 points and 277.3 yards per game. The Chicago Bears are trying to get to .500. Jay Cutler has completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards, with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett have combined to catch passes for 914 yards and five touchdowns. The ground game is averaging 114.6 yards with Matt Forte gaining 548 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Chicago is allowing 26 points and 335.6 yards per game. Denver has a top defense that should be able to keep the Bears in check. Denver will struggle to score so i am going with the under. Play on the under. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
11-15-15 | Patriots v. Giants OVER 53.5 | 27-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
The New York Giants are 5-4 this season which surprisingly good enough for first place in the NFC East. They are averaging 27.4 points and 349.7 yards per game. The Giants defense is allowing 25.1 points and 422.8 yards per game. The New England Patriots are 8-0 and atop the AFC East. They are averaging 34.5 points and 420.2 yards per game. The Patriots defense is allowing 17.9 points and 334 yards per game. New York is 2-7 against the spread against a team with a winning record and 4-1 against the spread after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New England is 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games, 4-1 against the spread following a game that they covered the point spread, and 3-1-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The underdog has covered the point spread in the last four meetings of these two teams. I am looking for a wide open offensive game with plenty of scoring. I think this game should fly over the total and will go over early in the 4th quarter. Play on the over. This is a 10* play | |||||||
11-08-15 | Packers v. Panthers OVER 46 | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
I see a lot of points in this game. both offenses can score a lot of points. I expect Rodgers to be able to move the ball against the Carolina defense and both teams should put this game over the total early in the second half. | |||||||
10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Arizona Cardinals UNDER 49.5 | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
The Baltimore Ravens are a dismal 1-5 to start the season. Quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,605 yards this season, with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Steve Smith and Kamar Aiken have combined to catch passes 775 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The rushing attack is averaging 111.2 yards per contest, with Justin Forsett leading the team with 457 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Baltimore is allowing 27 points and 380.7 yards per game. The Arizona Cardinals trying to go to 5-2 on the season with a win. Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 1,737 yards this season, with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown have combined to catch passes for 1,080 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The running game is averaging 121.5 yards a game with Chris Johnson leading the team with 445 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Arizona is allowing 19.2 points and 328.7 yards per game. I have no faith in the Ravens offense especially against a tough Cardinals defense. The Ravens can play good defense at times and I am looking for a low scoring game especially if the Ravens struggle on offense. Play on the UNDER. This is a 10* PLAY. | |||||||
10-18-15 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
The Houston Texans have gotten off to a dreadful 1-4 start to the year. Quarterback Brian Hoyer has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 780 yards, with five touchdowns and two interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins and Cecil Shorts III have combined to catch passes for 814 yards and four touchdowns. The rushing attack is averaging 96.2 yards a game,with Alfred Blue having gained 226 yards and one touchdown. Houston is allowing 27 points and 339.8 yards per game. The Jacksonville Jaguars has also started the season 1-4. Quarterback Blake Bortles is completing 57.1 percent of his passes this season, for 1,299 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have combined to catch passes for 832 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. The rushing attack is averaging 94.6 yards a game. T.J. Yeldon leads the team with 291 yards on 81 carries. Defensively, Jacksonville is allowing 29 points and 363 yards per game. I am looking for a low scoring game between these two teams. Play on the UNDER. This is a 10* play | |||||||
10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 49 | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Saints have started the season 1-3. Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 969 yards, with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks have combined to catch passes for 455 receiving yards and one touchdown. The New rushing attack is averaging just 82.8 yards a game, with Mark Ingram gaining 204 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing 26 points and 381.5 yards per game. The Philadelphia Eagles need a win after starting the season off 1-3. Quarterback Sam Bradford has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 948 yards this season, with six touchdowns and four interceptions. Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles have combined to catch passes for 399 yards and one touchdown. The rushing attack is averaging just 70 yards a game, and Ryan Mathews leads the team with 132 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Philly is allowing 21.5 points and 373.5 yards per game. Both defenses have been subpar so I am looking for a shootout in this one. Play on the over. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
10-11-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 42.5 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bills are at .500 at this point in the season. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has completed 71.7 percent of his passes for 988 yards this season, with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.. Charles Clay and Percy Harvin have combined to catch passes for 473 yards and three touchdowns . The Buffalo Bills rushing attack is averaging 128.3 yards a game, with Karlos Williams leading the Bills with 226 yards and three touchdowns. The Bills defense is allowing 23 points and 376.3 yards per game. Karlos Williams, Aaron Williams and Sammy Watkins are questionable. The Tennessee Titans are a game under 500 this season. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 833 yards this season, with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Kendall Wright and Anthony Fasano have combined to catch passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns. The rushing attack is averaging 126 yards a game, with Bishop Sankey leading the team with 126 yards and a touchdown. Tennessee is giving up 25.7 points and 308.3 yards per game on defense. The Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Titans are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 home games and 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The Bills could be at a disadvantage with a lack of a running game with their injuries at running back. You have to like a Rex Ryan defense going up against a rookie QB. I look fo these factors to add into the under. Play on the UNDER. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 54.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia Eagles under Chip Kelly has totally revamped the Eagles offense. They acquired Sam Bradford at quarterback and DeMarco Murray at running back. By the looks of preseason Philadelphia is primed to light up the scoreboard this season. Philadelphia Eagles defense ranked 28th in total yards allowed and 22nd in scoring defense last season. The Atlanta Falcons will start once again, this time with new head coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons have averaged 5 wins over the last two seasons.as they’ve won just 10 games the last two seasons. Offensively, the Falcons do have weapons with quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. They will need to get some yards on the ground from either Devonta Freeman or rookie Tevin Coleman. The Falcons finished 12th last season in scoring offense. Defensively, the Atlanta Falcons finished last season ranked 32nd in total yards allowed and 22nd in scoring defense. Both teams have suspect defenses and both teams have the potential to score a ton of points. I will be surprised if this game isn’t over by the third quarter. Play on the over. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
09-13-15 | Tennessee Titans v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 41 | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the worst team in the NFL last season. The offense was pathetic averaging 292.3 yards and 17.3 points per game ranking near the bottom in most offensive categories. Tampa Bay will turn to No. 1 draft pick quarterback Jameis Winston to turn the offensive around. They are also hoping running back Doug Martin returns to form. Winston has talent at the receiver position to help in the passing game in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. The Buccaneers defense allowed 368.9 yards per game that ranked them 25th and they allowed 25.6 points per game. The Tennessee Titans are also turning to a rookie quarterback this season in last years Heisman winner Marcos Mariota. He inherits the worst offense in the league. They averaged just 15.9 points and 303.7 yards per game. Bishop Sankey will lead the rushing attack. Kendall Wright leads the receiving core and should get help from Harry Douglas, Justin Hunter, and Dorial Green-Beckham. The Titans defense was second to last in points allowed last season at 27.4 per game and 27th in yards per game allowed at 373. You have two rookie quarterbacks on two bad teams. This could be a high scoring game but I see the opposite. i see two teams that will struggle to score and am playing accordingly. Play on the Under. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
09-13-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers have made the playoffs the last two seasons behind quarterback Cam Newton and a stingy defense. Cam Newton will have to find a way to step up without star receiver Kelvin Benjamin. He will have to count on to Ted Ginn Jr., Greg Olsen and Corey Brown to pick up the slack for the passing game. Jonathan Stewart will look to carry the rushing attack. The Panthers defense will have to step again this season. They ranked 10th last season in total yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense. Josh Norman, Ryan Kalil, Charles Tillman and Star Lotulelei are questionable with injuries. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been terrible over the last three seasons winning just a combined 9 wins. Blake Bortles his second season for the Jags and will need to show that he is a NFL starting quarterback. to do it it this game without t tight end Julius Thomas, who is hurt. He has an array of young talent in Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, but all three must step up. Denard Robinson and rookie T.J. Yeldon will handle the rushing attack. The Jags defense will have to step up for the jags to have any chance this season. They Jaguars were ranked 26th last season in total yards allowed and 26th in scoring defense. Sen'Derrick Marks and Toby Gerhart are both questionable with injuries. Both teams have questions on the offense side with injuries and young players needing to step up Carolina has a decent defense and am looking for a low scoring game. Play on the UNDER. This is a 10* play. | |||||||
01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 46 | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
With a win against the Green Bay Packers the Seahawks will get a chance to defend their title. There is no arguing that the Seahawks have been the league's best team in the second half of the season. . Seattle is one of the most balanced and most complete teams in recent memory. I think their defense is outstanding, but I am one who is not all that impressed with their offense. Lynch is great running the ball and Wilson is good at making something out of nothing, but I don’t see him as an elite quarterback. They will have to have a good game in order to keep the Packers offense off the field. Richard Sherman will be doing his best to shut down half of the field, but I don’t think the Packers will make the same mistake, as in their first game, and avoid throwing at him. I the Seahawks will try and get pressure on Rodgers early and make him test his injured calf. The Green Bay Packers were able to escape the Dallas Cowboys, with a little help from instant replay. The Packers are stacked offensively led of course by Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy but they know they will be going against Seattle’s defense. The Packers will need to do three things in order to have a chance in this game. The will need to get something out of Eddy Lacy. They will need to get the running game going, to take some pressure off of Rodgers and his ailing calf. The second and probably most important is protect Rodgers. Rodgers will need time to get the ball to his big playmakers down the field. Rodgers will need to make sure that he doesn’t have to move too much to protect the calf. Third, Rodgers will need to throw at and test Sherman. Other teams have been able to do it without a quarterback named Rodgers. They can’t deny themselves one side of the field. Their defense will have to step up to give their offense a chance. I am playing on the Over in this game. When they met earlier in the season the total hit 47. I think this total goes over that score. I see the Packers and Rodgers moving the ball and scoring in the 20’s. The Packer’s defense has allowed big plays and a lot of points in games during the season. I think one team will get at least 28 points. If Rodgers gets hurt this game could still go over easily. Play on the OVER. | |||||||
01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 40 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 54 m | Show | |
The Seattle Seahawks have won six straight games to close out the year. The Seahawks defense will look to continue leading the charge, as they’ve allowed a combined 19 points in their last three games. Offensively, the Seahawks will continue to give Marshawn Lynch the ball. This reliance on the running game, means that Russell Wilson only needs to make a play or two a game.. The Seattle Seahawks have won 10 of their last 11 games SU, which includes the postseason. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games overall. The Seahawks are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The Panthers will find it difficult to move the chains let alone score against this Seattle defense. I think Carolina’s defense will rise to the occasion and keep Seattle off the board for a while. I don’t see where Carolina’s offense is going to come from and wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t score more than ten points. I see both teams using their rushing games which should keep the clock running and speeding up the game. I am looking for a low scoring game and the under to come in. Play on the under. | |||||||
12-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers OVER 47 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are both assured a playoff spot, but there is still a lot on the line in this game. The winner will not only claim the NFC North title and an all-important first- round bye in the playoffs. The last time a Detroit team won in Wisconsin was in 1991‚ as the Lions have lost 23 straight in Wisconsin. The Packers clinched a spot in the playoffs for the sixth straight season on the backs of their defense‚ which limited Tampa Bay to 109 yards of offense in a 20-3 win over the hapless Buccaneers. Green Bay's tough defense sacked Josh McCown seven times. Offensively the Packers were led by Aaron Rodgers who completed 31 of 40 passes for 318 yards. Nelson caught nine passes for 113 yards and fellow receiver Randall Cobb set career highs with 11 catches and 131 receiving yards. Eddie Lacy ran for 99 yards on 17 carries‚ including a 44-yard touchdown to open the scoring in the first quarter. Matthew Stafford had a rough game last week as he went just 22-for-39 for 243 yards with a pair of red zone interceptions. Detroit can compete with the Pack when it comes to offensive output. The Lions have the second-ranked defense in all of football‚ allowing just 295.9 yards per game. The Lions are also second in points allowed giving up just 16.8 per game The Packers are 7-0 at Lambeau‚ averaging 41.1 points per game‚ and Rodgers has been lights out with a almost video-game-like 132.6 passer rating‚ the highest single-season home passer rating in NFL history. Before this season Detroit was known primarily as an offensive team but the Lions are just 20th in total offense at 326.7 ypg and Stafford has been below average away from Detroit with a 72.8 road passer rating. I love the over in this game. Green Bay has shown they can give up big plats especially when they have a lead. I think Detroit’s defense will struggle in this game and their offense will do enough to put this game over the total Play on the Over. | |||||||
12-22-14 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48 | 28-37 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
When Cincinnati takes on Denver they will be facing a quarterback they have never beaten. The Bengals have never beaten Peyton Manning whether he was in Indianapolis or Denver‚ compiling an 0-8 mark. Cincinnati moved closer to its fourth consecutive postseason berth in Week 15 by beating the Browns 30-0. Jeremy Hill had 148 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries and Giovani Bernard amassed 79 yards on the ground for the Bengals. Andy Dalton completed 14-of-24 passes for 117 yards with one interception. The strength of the Bengals offense is the running game. The Cincinnati running game has been averaging 145.3 yards per game over its past four games. Denver defense is second in the NFL, allowing only 71.6 yards per game on the ground. Denver has already made the playoffs by winning the AFC West for a fourth straight year after downing San Diego‚ 22-10‚ in Week 15. Denver will clinch a first round bye with a win over the Bengals. Manning threw for 233 yards with a touchdown‚ but five Connor Barth field goals and a strong defensive effort helped Denver sew up another division crown. Demaryius Thomas caught six passes for 123 yards and a touchdown‚ while C.J. Anderson added 85 rushing yards on a workmanlike 29 carries. Manning and the Broncos offense have taken a step back from their 2013 performance. Manning is third in the AFC with 4‚143 passing yards and even better with 37 TD passes (second in the NFL) and a 106.4 passer rating. Denver is fifth in the NFL in both yards at 400.7 yards per game and points per game 29.1. I like this game to go under the total. In the last four games Denver has relied on their running game to dominate the game. Cincinnati has been a run first offense all season. I see both teams trying to establish the running game and controlling the clock. Also with Manning being a little banged up you could see Denver not wanting to put him in a lot of throwing situations. I think this will be a low scoring affair that will stay under the total. Play on the under! | |||||||
12-20-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins OVER 50 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
The Washington Redskins season has been like a bad soap opera. The Philadelphia Eagles the last couple of weeks as resembled “As the World Turns”. Philadelphia was on a high after beating rival Dallas on Thanksgiving‚ but then followed that up with a 24-14 loss to Seattle the next week. Then if things couldn’t get worse, the Cowboys came to Philly and walked out with a 38-27 victory and sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez completed 17-of-28 passes for 252 yards and two interceptions. Sanchez has nine INTs this season to 10 touchdown passes. Eagles running back LeSean McCoy didn't have a healthy line to play behind in the first meeting with the Redskins and recorded 22 yards on 19 carries. He has just two 100-yard games in his last six and posted 64 yards on 16 carries Sunday night. Washington is last in the NFC East with a 3-11 record and is mired in a six-game losing streak. In Sunday's 24-13 road loss to the Giants‚ Robert Griffin III took over for Colt McCoy (neck) and completed 18-of-27 passes for 236 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Griffin will be back as the starter as McCoy is out for the season. Griffin did not play in the first meeting with the Eagles‚ a 37-34 setback in Week 3. Kirk Cousins‚ who is now the backup‚ threw for 427 yards‚ three touchdowns and one interception. Pierre Garcon caught 11 passes for 138 yards and a score‚ while former Eagle DeSean Jackson recorded 117 yards and a score on five catches‚ including an 81-yard TD reception in the third quarter. Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin ended with 154 yards and a TD on eight catches. Maclin‚ who owns 10 TDs this season‚ has four 100-yard games in the last five against the 'Skins. I like the over in this game. The redskins have given up 28 points a game this year and the Eagles should easily eclipse that number. In the Eagles last six games they have given up 28 points a game. I thing RG III will make some big plays in this game and that will be enough to push the game over the total. Play on the Over. | |||||||
12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 6 m | Show | |
This is not what the NFL wanted when they slated the game between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, for Thursday Night Football. Both teams come into the game having only won 2 games apiece. One of the Titans wins came when it beat the Jaguars at home 16-14 in October. Since they last faced each other, they have combined to lose 14 of 16 with Tennessee having lost eight in a row. Last week the Titans lost to the Jets 16-11. Jake Locker made his first start for the Titans since Week 5 and had to leave the game late in the second quarter with a dislocated left shoulder. The Titans were without starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who re-injured his right shoulder the week prior. Charlie Whitehurst replaced Locker against the Jets and was 10-of-24 for 203 yards in his first action since Week 7. The veteran will start again this week and be backed up by the recently signed Jordan Palmer. Jacksonville lost to the Baltimore ravens 20-12. The Jaguars were left to rely on Josh Scobee and his four field goals to account for their scoring output. Blake Bortles threw for 210 yards with an interception. He was also sacked eight times by a swarming Baltimore defense that limited Jacksonville to 248 total yards. In their last meeting Bortles threw for a career-high 336 yards and a touchdown. Tennessee sacked him six times and blocked a potential game-winning 55-yard field goal with 12 seconds left. The Titans lead their all-time series with the Jags by a 22-17 margin‚ including the win earlier this season when Jackie Battle rushed for a TD and kicker Ryan Succop booted three field goals. Titans head into the final two games with the NFL's 29th ranked offense‚ mustering just 307.9 yards per game and scoring less than 14 points per game during their current skid. Their defense isn’t much better ranking 29th and allowing 378 yards a game. The Jags offense ranks a dismal 31st in a 32-team league while averaging under 300 yards at 293.8. Their defense is ranked 28th giving up 372 yards a game. Neither team looks capable of doing much offensively. I see both offenses struggling to move the ball. The titans can’t run the ball averaging less than 90 yards a game. This will make it even harder on Whitehurst. Bortles is injured and may not be 100% for this game. I don’t see either team getting to 20 points in this game. Play on the under. | |||||||
12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears UNDER 54 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Before the season started both the Bears and the Saints were considered by many Super Bowl contenders. The Saints still have a chance to make the playoffs, even though they don’t deserve it, and the Bears who have no chance. They both come into the game at 5-8. The Saints are actually tied atop the division with Atlanta‚ while the Bears season is done as the Bears are in last place in the NFC North. The Saints lost last week 41-10 to the Carolina Panthers. It was their fourth straight defeat at the Superdome. Drew Brees was contained for most of the contest‚ throwing for 235 yards and a score to Benjamin Watson. Marques Colston totaled 72 yards on five catches‚ while the rushing tandem of Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas was limited to 81 yards on 15 combined carries. The Bears did not play well last week in losing 41-28 to the Dallas Cowboys. Matt Forte and Jay Cutler rushed for touchdowns in the fourth quarter‚ cutting a 25-point Dallas lead to 10. But the Bears lost for the second week in a row after falling in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Cutler completed 32 of his 46 throws for 341 yards‚ one pick and touchdown passes to Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. Brandon Marshall was taken away in an ambulance after suffering broken ribs and a lung injury in the first half He will be lost for the season. The Bears' defense is allowing an NFL-worst 29.1 points per game and giving up 377.8 ypg‚ tied for 28th in the league. In his past two meetings with the Bears‚ Brees has completed 55-of-72 passes for 558 yards with five TDs for a 121.2 rating. I am playing on the under in this game. The loss of Marshall is really going to hurt the Bears ability to move the ball. The Bears have been unable to get Matt Forte going the last couple of weeks so without Forte and Marshall the Bears offense is pretty stagnant. The weather in Chicago may not be good either, which could cause problems for Brees and the Saints passing game. I like this game to go under the total. Play on the under | |||||||
12-14-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 55 | 38-27 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
The Cowboys are looking for revenge when they take on their rival the Eagles Sunday night. Dez Bryant caught six passes for 82 yards and Tony Romo passed for 205 yards with three touchdowns. Romo in Dallas’s win over Chicago.‚ who's been bothered by back and rib issues‚ did not throw an interception. NFL leading rusher DeMarco Murray had 179 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 32 carries and also caught nine passes for 49 yards. Murray has rushed for 100-plus yards 11 times this season and is first in the league in rushing yards with 1,606. Murray did have a season-low 73 yards on 20 carries in a 33-10 loss to Philadelphia on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have won three of their last four games and sit tied with the Eagles at 9-4 atop the NFC East standings. In four games against the Eagles‚ Murray has rushed for 278 yards and two touchdowns on 68 touches. He is facing a Philly defense that limited Seattle bruising back Marshawn Lynch to 86 yards on 23 carries. Philadelphia's offense was shut down completely in their 24-14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. They ran only 45 plays and amassed a season-low 139 yards. LeSean McCoy had 50 yards on 17 carries and a costly fumble to open the second half. McCoy ran for a season-best 159 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Cowboys on Nov. 27‚ and will be a big factor again this week. Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez had two touchdown passes and an interception last Sunday‚ and completed 10-of-20 attempts for only 96 yards. Philadelphia had won two straight and four of five games before the Seahawks loss. Sunday's loss put the Eagles behind a few tiebreaking scenarios against conference powers Seattle‚ Green Bay‚ Arizona and possibly San Francisco. Romo is 7-6 as a starter against the Eagles with 3‚024 passing yards‚ 17 TDs and 15 INTs. Dallas had no trouble getting the offense going on the road in Chicago‚ however‚ and has to do it again in enemy territory. The Cowboys have enjoyed success outside of Jerry's world with a 6-0 record. I am playing on the under in this game. Dallas will try and control the clock with Murray on the ground. Dallas saw how Seattle was able to control the Eagles offense, and while they don’t have the same talent they will be able to implement some of the plan to slow down the Eagles. The Cowboys are pissed off and I see them coming out with a score to settle. This game went way under the number posted for this game and I see it going under again. I see a 37-24 Dallas win. Play on under | |||||||
12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 40.5 | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
The Arizona Cardinals‚ despite their injuries, are tied for the league's best record at 10-3 and one-game ahead of the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the ultra-tough NFC West. A win by the Cardinals, over the Rams, will all but put them in the playoffs. Last week Drew Stanton tossed a go-ahead 26-yard touchdown pass to Jaron Brown late in the third quarter last weekend and Arizona's defense held off Kansas City from there as the Cardinals edged the Chiefs 17-14. Running back Kerwynn Williams‚ who was brought up from the practice squad, carried the ball 19 times for 100 yards. The Cards and Stanton had lost two of three three prior games since replacing starting QB Carson Palmer. Stanton finished 15-of-30 for 239 yards. The St. Louis Rams are coming off their second straight shutout‚ a 24-0 win over Washington. Rams quarterback Shaun Hill tossed a pair of touchdown passes to Jared Cook. Hill finished 16-of-22 for 213 yards. Cook hauled in four passes for 61 yards for St. Louis. Arizona's offense has been struggling since Palmer went down in the first matchup with the Rams and St. Louis possesses the hottest defense in the game. The Cardinals have managed just four offensive touchdowns in four games. The Rams defense has allowed only 34 points while going 3-1. In the past two weeks the St. Louis defense has allowed just 225 yards per game they have gave up under 60 yards a game on the ground over the past six games. The pass rush‚ fueled by Quinn‚ has found the QB 13 times over the prior two games. Hill‚ since replacing Davis, has completed 62.0 percent of his passes with six TDs and two INTs. Rookie running back Tre Mason leads all NFC rookies with 628 rushing yards and has 363 scrimmage yards (315 rushing‚ 48 receiving) and four touchdowns (three rushing‚ one receiving) in his past three games at home. The Cardinals haven’t been able to score and the Rams haven’t allowed a point in two games. I don’t see this rend changing much in this game. The Cardinals have been carried by their defense and gave gotten by scoring just enough to get the win. I see this game being a low scoring game with neither team getting to twenty points. Play on the St. Louis Rams. | |||||||
12-04-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears UNDER 51.5 | 41-28 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
Both Dallas and Chicago are coming of forgettable Thanksgiving Day games. Dallas suffered an embarrassing 33-10 loss to division rival Philadelphia, While the Bears were humiliated 34-17 by division foe, the Detroit Lions. Dallas is a game behind the Eagles in the NFC East with just four to play and the Bears are pretty much done in the NFC North at 5-7‚ three games back of the Lions and four behind division-leading Green Bay. It was not a good day for the Dallas offense. Romo completed 18-of-29 passes for 199 yards and threw two interceptions, and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 38 games. Murray failed to reach the century mark for only the second time in 2014‚ finishing with a season-low 73 yards on 20 carries against the Eagles. Dallas dropped its third straight home game. Chicago had a two game winning streak snapped as quarterback Jay Cutler was 31-for-48 for 280 yards with a pair of touchdown passes along with two interceptions. Alshon Jeffery had nine catches for 71 yards and two scores. Cutler plays well against Dallas passing for 552 yards with five touchdowns and a gaudy 138.2 passer rating in his previous two starts against the Cowboys. He is not short of weapons on offense with wideouts Jeffery‚ who has seven touchdown catches this season and Brandon Marshall. Marshall has 22 catches for 432 yards and three touchdowns in four career games against Dallas. Running back Matt Forte has amassed 828 rushing‚ 650 receiving yards, and is the only NFL player with at least 800 rushing yards and 650 receiving yards. Despite all that talent Chicago is just 21st in the league in scoring‚ averaging only 21.1 points per game. Dallas has been a much better road team this year. They have scored over 30 points per game and compiled a perfect 5-0 mark so far. On the road, Romo has been exceptional, passing for 1‚164 yards with 12 touchdowns and a league-best 122.0 passer rating when away. Romo also seems to excel on Thursday going 7-2 record with a 103.1 passer rating. The Cowboys seem to be at their best when Murray is running the ball. He is the NFL’s leading rusher and has at least 100 rushing yards in 10 of 12 games heading into Thursday‚ and has 1‚427 yards this season. In three career Thursday games‚ Murray has 343 scrimmage yards (114.3 per game) and four rushing touchdowns. Overall the Bears' defense ranks 26th overall. It's ranked 10th against the run but that tells you more about how easy it is to throw on the secondary. I am playing the under in this game. I think both teams will establish the running game and control the clock. I think both defenses will put up a good effort and at least slow both teams down enough to keep the game under the total. Play on Under | |||||||
11-30-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 42.5 | 13-31 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
What a difference a conference makes. Minnesota is 4-7 this season and in last place in the NC North division. Carolina has played slightly wore at 3-7-1 but find themselves just a half a game out of first place in the NFC South. The Panthers come in to this game off a bye. The rest couldn’t have come at a better time for the Panthers who have lost five straight. In Minnesota‚ things haven't gone as expected this season. Starting quarterback Matt Cassel broke his foot early in the season. Adrian Peterson their all-pro running back was suspended. They have had to rely on rookies Teddy Bridgewater and Jerick McKinnon. .Minnesota comes in ranked 30th overall on offense with only the NFL's two one- win teams‚ Jacksonville and Oakland worse. Bridgewater has completed 158 of 262 passes, for 1689 yards and only 6 TDs. McKinnon has rushed for 538 yards in 113 carries but has yet to rush for a TD. Brandon Jennings leads the team in receiving with 501 yards on 40 receptions and 3 scores. The Vikings biggest problems are with their offensive line. They have been racked by injuries and by subpar play from their starts a year ago. The will be going up against a defense that ranks 25th in the NFL, giving up274 yards a game. The Vikings lead their all-time series with Carolina 6-5 but the Panthers have won two of the past three‚ including a 35-10 blowout last season when Newton threw for 242 yards and accounted for four TDs (three passing‚ one rushing). The Panther’s offense should be helped by the time off, because Cam Newton seemed to be struggling physically before the break. He has passes for 2392 yards and 12 touchdowns. James Stewart has rushed for 323 yards and 2 scores. Rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin has 52 catches for 768 yards and leads all freshman with eight TD catches. The Vikings are rank 12 overall but have struggled against big receivers which should give Benjamin a chance to make some big plays.
Play on the Under. | |||||||
11-27-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 39.5 | 19-3 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
When NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle square off Thursday night the 49ers will be trying for a sixth consecutive home victory over the Seahawks. The two teams have split the last four division titles, but both are 7-4 and two games behind first-place Arizona. Seattle holds the tiebreaker over Detroit and San Francisco for the final wild-card spot. San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick tied a club record by throwing a TD pass in his 18th straight game Sunday. Kaepernick hasn't rushed for more than 64 yards in a game this season. Anquan Boldin set season highs with nine receptions and 137 yards against the Redskin Seattle tightened the race in the NFC west for both itself and San Francisco with their victory over Arizona last weekend. Russell Wilson threw for 211 yards with a touchdown pass to Cooper Helfet and also ran for 73 yards. Running back Marshawn Lynch had just 39 yards on 15 carries against the Cardinals. Steve Hauschka made four field goals in the game. Wilson has thrown five touchdown passes to zero interceptions with a 116.6 passer rating in winning his last two games The Seahawks bounced back from a road loss to Kansas City and won for the fourth time in five games. The battle within the battle will be the NFL's top-two ranked defenses squaring off. Seattle is giving up a league-low 296.8 yards per game‚ followed by San Francisco's 300.1 YPG. The Niners also rank second against the pass and the Seahawks are third‚ San Francisco has won five of its past seven in the regular season versus Seattle and is 2-1-1 on Thanksgiving Day‚ while the Seahawks are 1-2 on the holiday. When two top defenses get together the conventional wisdom is to play the under. I think this game will go over the total. I see both offenses making a big play or two and the defenses making a play for an easy score. I see both teams getting in the 20’s which would easily put this game over the total Play on the over. | |||||||
11-27-14 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions will be facing a familiar rival when the take on the Chicago bears in their traditional Thanksgiving day game. The Lions have lost two in a row mainly due to the stagnation of their once potent offense. The Bears on the other hand have won two in a row, albeit over weak competition. The last two times they have played on the road against a team with a winning record, they have came away embarrassed. The Lions come in at 7-4 but have been held to five field goals while dropping back-to-back road games to division leaders Arizona and New England. The Lions now mow find themselves trailing first-place Green Bay by one game in the NFC North and are also tied with Seattle and San Francisco for the final wild-card spot. The offense has been hit with injuries to key players. Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell have all misses time helping the Lions to rank 28th with 17.9 points per game. That is almost a whole touchdown less than last year. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 300 yards twice this year, compared to six last season. He is the league’s 26th-rated passer, Sand has thrown six of his 10 interceptions in the last five games. Stafford will try to avoid going a third straight game without a touchdown for the first time in his career. Since Johnson’s return he has caught just 16 passes in three games. Golden Tate has already set career highs with 72 receptions and 1,047 yards. Detroit also ranks 30th in rushing yards per game with 80.8. Detroit will look to get their offense going against a Chicago team that has given up 106 points in its last two road games against Green Bay and New England. The Bears were able to beat both Minnesota and Tampa Bay by 21-13 scores. Both teams however have a combines six wins. Jay Cutler and the Bears offense are averaging 6.3 points fewer than last season when they scored an NFC-high 27.8 per game. Lions lead the NFL allowing 17.3 points per contest and are third giving up an average of 303.8 yards. Chicago’s main weapon is running back Matt Forte. He is tied for fourth in the league with 72 catches and third with 1,420 scrimmage yards. He has averaged 95.8 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry in his last five games at Detroit. I like the Lions offense to get going in this game against a Bears defense that is prone to giving up a lot of points. The Lions defense has been one of the best in the league but seems to fall asleep at times. They were decimated by Brady and the Patriots. The defense had a 9 minute stretch against the Cardinals in which they gave up two touchdown passes to Drew Stanton. I Like the Lions and Bears to put on a back and forth game on Thursday and the total going over the number. Play on the Over. | |||||||
11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints OVER 50.5 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
In any other year the Saints year would be considered a disappointment. But thanks to playing in the god awful NFC south division they still have a chance to salvage their season. The Saints were considered Super Bowl contenders when the season started are 4-6 but remarkably find themselves tied for the top of the division going into the weekend. They will face a well-rested Baltimore Ravens team Monday Night. The Saints, usually unbeatable at home have dropped two straight in the Superdome. They lost their last game to Cincinnati despite Dree Brees completing 33 of 41 passes for 255 yards and a score. Mark Ingram added 67 yards on the ground on 23 carries and caught a game-high seven passes for only 30 yards. Brees has won nine of his past 10 starts on "Monday Night Football" with a 118.6 passer rating in those contests. New Orleans has been able to establish their running game behind Ingram, who leads the NFL in rushing since Week 8 with 459 yards on the ground. The Saints are 24th in the NFL against the pass and have only created 10 takeaways‚ the fifth-worst mark in the league. The defense has also allowed nearly 150 yards on the ground over its past three games. The Baltimore Ravens are 6-4 on the year but have the disadvantage of playing in the AFC North, where they are tied for last with Cleveland. The Ravens are coming off their bye week after halting a two-game skid by coasting past Tennessee‚ 21-7. Justin Forsett rushed for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Titans while Joe Flacco finished 16-of-27 for 169 yards and one TD. Joe Flacco has won four of his past five starts on MNF. Forsett leads all NFL backs with 5.4 yards per rush. The Ravens are 21st in football against the pass and have managed just six picks on the season. They will need to slow down Brees who completes 70 percent of his passes. Each team has struggled with turnovers‚ though. The Saints are minus-nine on the season and while Baltimore is barely on the plus side of the ledger (plus- one)‚ Flacco has been regressing recently‚ throwing five interceptions in his last four games. I like this game to go over the total. Breeze should be able to get passing game going against the Ravens porous pass defense. The Saint’s pass defense is not much better and their rush defense has also been poor of late. Both teams have been turnover prone and I see an up and down the field type of game where a turnover or two could lead to easy points. Play on the OVER | |||||||
11-23-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans UNDER 44 | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Houston improved to 5-5 on the season by winning for only the second time in six games, with an impressive 23-7 road win over the Cleveland Browns. Ryan Mallett looked good completing 20-of-30 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns in his first start. They now are one game back of the Colts in the AAC South. Alfred Blue contributed a career-best 156 yards on 36 carries‚ while J.J. Watt and Garrett Graham posted a touchdown reception apiece. Cincinnati bounced back from an awful home loss and won for the third time in four games last Sunday in a 27-10 victory over the New Orleans Saints. Andy Dalton completed 16-of-22 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns. In fact‚ Dalton threw six interceptions and had completed just 52.3 percent of his passes over his previous four games. A.J. Green caught six passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Jeremy Hill totaled 152 yards on 27 carries. Houston has won five straight meetings with the Bengals‚ the last two being wild-card victories after the 2011 and '12 seasons. Both offenses have struggled at various times throughout the year. The Houston defense has been playing well led by J.J. Watt. I like this game to go under the total. I like the Texans defense to keep Cincinnati’s offense in check. On the other side of the field the Bengals defense has been stepping up and holding their own. Play the under. | |||||||
11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 43 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The Kansas City Chiefs have won five straight games and find themselves in a first-place tie in the AFC West. They will look for their sixth win when they face the winless Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs are 7-3 on the season. Quarterback Alex Smith is 4-0 record and a 10-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio in those games. Jamaal Charles is coming off a terrific performance against Seattle - 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns .In his last game against these Raiders, he became the first player in NFL history to catch four touchdown passes and run for a score in a single game. One of the keys to Kansas City's success has been stopping the pass, as no team in the league has given up fewer yards through the air this season than the Chiefs' average mark of 201.8 yards. I see this game coming down to a battle of defenses as Oakland has played some very good games on that side of the ball. Kansas City will run Charles down the raiser throat and I see this game going under the total. I know the over has been Golden in Prime Time games buy sometime it has to stop and today is the day it does! Play on Under | |||||||
11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 42.5 | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
The Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills both come into this game with 5-4 records. Both teams are coming off of late game losses last week. The Dolphins lost to the Detroit Lions on a touchdown with 29 seconds left, 20-16. The Buffalo Bills also lost a heartbreaker 17-13 to Kansas City. Buffalo is looking for a sweep having won at home 29-10. Perhaps even worse than Miami’s loss to Detroit was that left tackle Branden Albert will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. This could cause big problems for Miami because Buffalo's defense ranks first in the NFL with 34 sacks. They have three different players with seven sacks, the only team in the league with that distinction. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill usually struggles against the bills. He is 1-4 against the Bills in his career.. He has been sacked 18 times in those five games and compiled a dismal 67.0 passer rating. They will need to establish a rushing game, and buffalo could be accommodating. In their last three games the Bills have allowed 153 yards a game on the ground. The Dolphins are not too shabby on defense either. They are second in the AFC with 28 sacks. The Bills are dead last in red zone production in the NFL. Last week inside the 20 the scored 2 field goals. I know the over has been golden in prime time games but I am going to buck the trend tonight and play the under. Both teams rely on their defense and I don’t see that changing tonight. I see both quarterback struggling against the pass rush of the defenses. Also, Buffalo’s inability in the red zone should save a few points. I am playing the under Play on the UNDER | |||||||
11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions OVER 43.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
I think with the return of Johnson and Bush to the Lions offense, and the emergence of Tate as another legitimate weapon, they will have no problems putting some points on the board against this Miami defense. If Miami can’t establish any resemblance of a rushing attack Tannehill will be forced to rely on the passing game. This could cause two things to happen. First we have a Wild West type of shootout, or second the Lions defense steps up and forces Tannehill into mistakes that lead to easy Lion’s points. Either way I like this game to fly over the total. The Detroit Lions come into this game with a 6-2 record and with the return of Calvin Johnson the face ever growing expectations. The Miami Dolphins come in at 5-3 and seem to be living up to some of the early season hype they were getting. Both teams are looking for their fourth straight win of the season. Last week the Dolphins literally crushed the San Diego Chargers by the score of 37-0. Miami had a season high 441 yards in the game and held the Chargers to just 178 yards of offense. The Chargers were ranked seventh in offense coming into the game Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season, completing 63 percent of his passes for 1907 yards 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Their running attack could be hampered against Detroit’s Defense. Leading rusher Lamar Miller, with 518 yards, is said to have only limited action Sunday due to injury. That leaves Tannehill as the leading rusher on the team with 245 yards. Mike Wallace leads the receiving corps with 35 receptions for 468 yards and five touchdowns. The Dolphins are averaging 26.4 points a game but since week four they are averaging 30.6. Miami’s defense has stepped this season also, they lead the in yards per play at 4.68 yards, yards per pass at 5.16 yards and first downs with 143. They rank second in pass defense and third in total defense. All those ranking could change after this week. The Lions potent offense just got a lot better with the return of Calvin ”Megatron” Johnson. The loss of Johnson could have been a blessing in disguise as it allowed quarterback Mathew Stafford to work more with Golden Tate who could become a bigger factor in this game and as the season progresses. The Lions are coming off a bye week after getting by Atlanta in London. They held the Falcons to 80 yards and no points after halftime in coming back to win after being down 21-0. Matthew Stafford, who threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns in the victory, has developed an dynamic connection with Golden Tate, who has emerged with Johnson out. Tate ranks fifth in the NFL with 55 receptions, fourth with 800 yards and is coming off back-to-back 150-yard performances. This season Stafford has completed 61%of his passes for 2216 yards 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Joique bell leads the team with 313 yards but the rushing attack should get a boost with the expected return of Reggie Bush. In the absence of Johnson, Tate has proven that he can get the job done and now together they become even more dangerous. The Lions rank at the top of the NFL in total yards allowed with 290.4 yards and points allowed at 15.8 per game. Play on the over | |||||||
10-27-14 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 49.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Nick Parsons' analysis will be available at least six hours before kickoff! | |||||||
10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 51.5 | 21-35 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
The Denver Broncos will try to stay on top of the AFC West when they take on the San Diego Chargers Thursday night. In the last three meetings against these two teams has gone under the total. The Charger’s will try and keep the ball out of Manning’s hands with a ball control offense. In both of last year’s games the Chargers were able to hold the ball on offense for 38 or more minutes. This resulted in the total going under by 10 and 13.5 points. The Bronco’s and Charger’s come in with defenses that are both ranked in the top ten in overall defense. The Chargers are ranked third giving up only 316 yards a game and their 16.3 points ranks third in the league. The Bronco’s defense ranks 6th while allowing 316 yards a game. Play on the Under! | |||||||
10-19-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears OVER 48 | 27-14 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bears look to avoid going 0-3 at Soldier Field for the first time in 10 years Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. Chicago is 3-3 this season, avoided a third straight defeat and improved to 3-1 away from home with a 27-13 win at Atlanta last Sunday. Jay Cutler threw for 381 yards, Matt Forte recorded 157 total yards and two rushing scores and a banged-up defense held the Falcons to 287 yards and one TD. The Bears average 26.5 points and have a plus-6 turnover margin on the road, but have totaled 37 points and are a minus-4 in that department in home defeats to Buffalo and Green Bay. They haven't dropped their first three at Soldier Field since 2004. Cutler has thrown nine touchdowns, two interceptions and has a 104.6 passer rating on the road. But struggles at home with just four touchdowns and a rating of 84.7. He is worse after halftime throwing three interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 58.1 touchdowns Forte, meanwhile, enters Week 7 leading the NFL in receptions (46) and is seventh in rushing yards (399). He's averaged 164.7 total yards in the last three games. The Dolphins are 2-3 and rank eighth in the league against the pass allowing an average of 221.6 yards. Starting running back Knowshon Moreno suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. Moreno, who played in only three games, gained all but 14 of his 148 rushing yards in a season-opening 33-20 win over New England. Lamar Miller, the team leader with 330 rushing yards, is expected to get the bulk of the work. Miami ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing with 136 yards a game and third in yards per carry at 4.97 but faces a Chicago defense that's allowed 188 and 3.24 per attempt in the last three contests. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is 0-4 in career road games against NFC foes and his 2014 numbers in completion percentage and passer rating) are in the bottom half among the league's starters. "We have every piece we need to put this puzzle together‚" he said. "Now it's a matter of doing it." Still‚ the Bears have scored eight fewer points at home than on the road‚ and their plus-6 turnover I think the Bears will be able to move the ball behind Forte and their outside weapons. I feel they will turn things around at home this week against the Dolphins. They Dolphins will be able to get their points in this game against the Bears, so I am playing this game over the total. | |||||||
10-19-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Washington Redskins OVER 45.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The Kirk Cousins experiment hasn’t worked out like a lot of people hoped for. He look brilliant at times and look like a high school quarterback at others. Last week Cousins completed 24-of-38 passes for 354 yards with two touchdowns but threw three late interceptions. He has four career 300-yard passing games‚ including two this season‚ and four multi-touchdown games since taking over for RG3. He also leads the league with eight interceptions. Washington is last in the NFC East and have lost four in a row. Tennessee was able to halt a four- The Redskins have struggled running the football this season. They are 23rd with just 99.3 yards per game‚ a far cry from last season. In 2013‚ Alfred Morris and the Redskins were fifth in rushing with 135.2 yards per game. The will hope to get the running game going against a Titan team that allowed an average of 154.3 rushing yards during a four-game skid t Washington has committed 10 of its 13 giveaways in the last three games, and its minus-9 turnover margin is tied for worst in the league entering Week 7. It would seem to be an easy mistake to make. The Redskins have dropped 13 of 14 and allowed an average of 34.8 points in four games since a 41-10 victory over winless Jacksonville on Sept. 14. Tennessee recorded 290 total yards, converted three of 11 third downs and needed three Ryan Succop field goals. Sammie Hill blocked Josh Scobee's 55-yard field-goal attempt with 12 seconds left to preserve the victory. Quarterback Jake Locker ranks near the bottom of the league in completion percentage at 58 and passer rating with 75, 9, while throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions in four games this season. His status for Sunday in uncertain. Backup Charlie Whitehurst has completed 58.3 percent of his passes, but has thrown three TDs and one INT in three contests. Tennessee has two dangerous pass catchers in tight end Delanie Walker and wide receiver Kendall Wright. Walker leads the team with 29 catches for 421 yards and is tied with Wright with three TD receptions. Wright has 26 catches. They could have big days as the redskins secondary is pretty banged up. They are facing a beat-up secondary and should be in for a good day. Washington has been able to move the ball behind the Cousins. The defense has also shown the ability to give up points also. I see this being a high scoring game with The Redskins putting up big numbers and Tennessee scoring big too. I see this game flying over the total. | |||||||
10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins OVER 48.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 53 m | Show | |
Two weeks ago Green bay Quarterback Aaron Rodgers told the Packers fans to relax. Since then the packers have been able to get both the passing and running game going and have one two straight. Last week Rodgers threw for three TDs in a 42-10 victory over Minnesota. He finished with 156 passing yards completing 12 of 17 passes. There were also able to get their running game up to speed with Eddie Lacy getting a season-high 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries for the Packers. The improvement of the running game allows wide receiver more freedom to work and get deep into the secondary. Dolphin’s quarterback Ryan Tannehill status as team starter has been questioned. He 14 straight passes against Oakland at one point. He finished the game connecting on 23 of 31 passes for 278 yards two touchdowns and one interception. Lamar Miller ran for 64 yards with two touchdowns. They will also be getting back Knowshon Moreno to help the rushing attack. They could be looking for a big game as the Packers are the league’s worst at stopping the run‚ allowing 163.0 yards a game. I see Rodgers and lacy having a big game and this being a high scoring game. I like the Packers to score at least 28 points and I see the Dolphins being able to put up enough points to make this game go over the total. Play on the Over. | |||||||
10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans OVER 46.5 | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
The Indianapolis Colts started out the season losing their first two games. Unlike some people who were talking their demise, I knew they were two good to let it down slide to continue. They proved me right so far, winning their next three games. I see them stretching it to for straight wins when the face a Houston team they have dominated. In the past. The Colts have won three consecutive games in the rivalry and compiled a 20-4 overall record against Houston. They also seemed to excel in short weeks winning nine straight when playing on Thursday. They are 11-1-1 overall playing on Thursday. The Colts have outscored their last three opponents 105-47. The Colts offense is second overall in the NFL with 439.6 yards a game and tops in passing offense (321.8 YPG). Luck leads the NFL with 1‚617 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. The Colts defense has shown an improvement as the year has gone on. They had allowed 409.5 yards per game in the first two games of the season‚ but have reduced that two 297.3 per game since. The unit mustered just one sack and one turnover in the first two and had generated 11 sacks and nine takeaways during its three-game run. The Texans started the season 2-0 but have dropped two of their last three. Their last loss came last week in overtime to their rivals the Dallas Cowboys The Texans defense allows 385 yards in offense and 250 plus through the air. Indianapolis has never lost on NFL Network's "Thursday Night Football‚" posting a 7-0 record dating back to 2007 with six of those seven wins coming on the road and I see that streak continuing tonight. Luck will be able to pass on the Texans and see another high scoring prime time game Play on the Over | |||||||
10-05-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Detroit Lions OVER 43 | 17-14 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
I think the total in this game has everybody. The stats and trends show this game as an under, but as it has often been quoted “There are lies, dam lies and statistics”. In this game I think the statistics lie. I know there is talk that Calvin Johnson might not play, but the Lions still have the offensive weapons to explode. Golden Tate, Reggie Bush and rookie tight end Ebron are capable of making big plays if Johnson is absent. I know Buffalo comes in with the 27th ranked offense, but a new starting quarterback could give them a needed shot in the arm. It’s not like the buffalo offense is bereft of weapons. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson give them a good 1-2 punch in the backfield and rookie wide receiver Sammie Watkins has shown that he is capable of making big plays. I think Buffalo will be able to score some points on the Lions defense and this will easily put the total over. Nick “The Bookie Killer” Parsons | |||||||
09-28-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 41 | 38-14 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Either both teams’ offenses are going to break out and have an offensive explosion or if they stay to form, the English will feel right at home at a soccer match The Dolphins offense had been lackluster and the Raiders offense has been offensive. The Raiders hope to avoid going 0-4 and their 10th straight defeat. Miami’s quarterback, at least for now, Ryan Tannehill is last among starters with 5.03 yards per attempt. He 74.1 quarterback rating is one of the lowest in the league. That goes along with his low completion percentage of 56.5. He hasn’t had a 250 yards game and only one pass completion over 25 yards. The Dolphins have scored 25 points and two touchdowns since their opening weak 33-20 win over New England. Oakland is averaging a league-low 12.3 points and 254.3 yards with Derek Carr at quarterback. The rookie has only a slightly better passer rating than Tannehill at 74.9 and is also just ahead of him in yards per attempt at 5.44. The Raiders, looked a lot better last week, even though they lost 16-9 at New England. The Raiders yielded 76 rushing yards after allowing a combined 400 in losses to the New York Jets and Houston, but the team gained 67 on the ground and has totaled 193, just ahead of Chicago's league-low 192. I don’t see either of these two teams changing their ways quickly. If either team is too break out I would think it would be the Raiders, as the Raiders’ defense looked good against New England. I look for a very low scoring game and it going under the total. Play on the Under. | |||||||
09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears OVER 51 | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a battle of two teams trying to find their offense and their defenses. Both teams have struggles to run the ball and both teams have allowed a lot of yards on defense. Both teams will look to get their anemic running games going against defenses that are prone to the run. Green bay allows 156 yards on the ground and 355 yards in total offense. The Bears allow 378 yards of total offense, with 145 of that coming on the ground. The Bears will be going for their third straight victory and first at home, when they take on their arch rivals the Green Bay Packers. The Bears haven't opened with back-to-back home defeats since a 0-3 start in 2004. Their last set of consecutive losses at Soldier Field came at the end of 2012. The Packers come in at 1-2 and didn’t look very good in a 19-7 loss to the Detroit Lions last week. The Packers hope to get Rodgers and the offense back on track when they face a Bear’s defense that has a ton of injuries. Rodgers has averaged 282.0 yards while totaling 14 TDs and four interceptions in his last five full games against Chicago. Last year. Lacy had 216 yards in last season's two matchups, including 150 in the loss. Matt Forte topped 100 yards in both meetings last season, totaling 235, and added nine catches for 101 yards. The Bears have lost seven of eight to the Packers. Rodgers is 10-2 against the Bears‚ winning seven straight when he starts and finishes‚ including a Week 17 win over Chicago last season which sent the Pack to the postseason and the Bears into hibernation. These two teams play very entertaining games that are often high scoring. I think that the Packers offense gets healthy and back on track against the Bears injured defense. I see lacy going over 100 yards on the ground, giving Rodgers the opportunity to get going passing the ball. The Bears will have chance to score against a Packers defense that has been suspect. I see both teams scoring a lot in this game and it coming down to the last possession. Play on the Over | |||||||
09-14-14 | Detroit Lions v. Carolina Panthers OVER 43.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
I am playing on the OVER Cam Newton is back for Carolina, but I am not sure that it is a god thing. His replacement looked awesome in his start last week. Derek Anderson completed 24-of-34 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns. In Newton’s career game against the Lions, he threw four interceptions in a 49-35 loss Nov. 20, 2011. The Panthers defense were able to force three takeaways and will need to do the same this week against Detroit. Detroit looked get on D against the Giants, but again, it was the Giants. In the Lions 35-14 home win, they limited the Giants to just 197 yards of total offense. They also had a plus 2 turnover margin. Matthew Stafford and top target Calvin Johnson were in sync as Stafford hit Johnson for two scores in the first quarter. Johnson had seven catches for 164 yards in the game. Stafford went 22 of 32 for 346 yards and two TDs. The team will need to improve their running game against the Panthers to keep pressure off of Stafford. Detroit will score and that is a given. The main question is what D shows up for Detroit and how effective will Newton be. Their last game was a shootout and I don’t see that changing this week. The defensive secondary of the Lions has always been suspect and they lost another member of the secondary last week. Expect Detroit to attack Carolina's secondary early and often to put the Panthers behind the eight-ball early on. I am playing on the OVER. | |||||||
09-07-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41 | 27-30 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on the Under: The Pittsburg Steelers looking to break out of a two slump of making the playoffs by taking on an old rival in the Cleveland Browns. They will be looking for their eleventh home win against the Browns, their current streak is tied for the sixth longest active home winning streak against an opponent. Pittsburgh has not missed the postseason in three straight years since 1998-2000. The Browns will be under a new head coach Mile Pettine was names the fifteenth coach in team history replacing Rob Chudzinski, who lasted one year in Cleveland. Reasons for Play: The Browns preseason has not been good. Named starting quarterback looked dreadful and No. 1 draft pick Johnny Manziel didn’t look much better. To top it off they lost their best receiver, and arguably one of the best in the league, Josh Gordon for the season to suspension. It will be hard to replace the 1,646 receiving yards that Gordon amassed. Cleveland’s starting QB Hoyer will have to try and find a replacement for Gordon as the Browns brought in two new receivers, Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin, during the offseason. He will have talented tight end Jordan Cameron to relieve some pressure. They also brought in a new running back free agent Ben Tate to handle rushing duties. The offense looked so bad during the preseason that many were calling for Manziel to be the starter to open the season. All these signs do not point to good things for the Browns offense. The Steelers are slowly turning to youth on the defensive side of things. Three of their starters up front our only in their fourth year, they will also start a rookie at inside linebacker in Ryan Shazier. Cornerback Cortez Allen is another player with limited experience‚ but the defense will still have veterans Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor in the secondary and Lawrence Timmons at linebacker to lend leadership and stability. This defense must be licking their chops to get a chance at this offense. The Steeler offense will look again to pound the ball on the ground with second year player Le’Veon Bell getting the start‚ with fellow running back LeGarrette Blunt getting his share of carries. Both were arrested in August for marijuana possession, but that will have no effect on this game. He'll have to work hard without Gordon‚ with expected starters Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin brought in during the offseason to help fill the void along with talented tight end Jordan Cameron. I am playing on the UNDER because Hoyer will not only have to deal with the Steelers D and Manziel over his shoulder. But he really has no offensive weapons to count on to keep the pressure off him. The Steelers will get to him early and often and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manziel enter this game today. Play the Under | |||||||
09-07-14 | Washington Redskins v. Houston Texans UNDER 45.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on Under 45.5 Washington vs Houston I am playing this game under based on the 2 quarterbacks and Houston’s defense!! Plain and Simple. Houston’s defense is outstanding led by J.J. Watt and then they added No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney. Those two alone could be the most disruptive tandem who knows. RGIII, Jay Gruden, their offensive line and O-line coach and even Daniel Snyder has to be having nightmares thinking of these two let alone the rest of the defense. Speaking of RGIII, another reason I am playing UNDER, he now wants to be known as a pocket passer. Well, that is one thing he is not. Without the threat of the run, he will not be able to live off the short passes as he first two years. Sitting the pocket will make him a sitting duck for Watt/ Clowney and company. Houston has a new coach and quarterback. You could say the Texans have no faith in their quarterback. The made a late preseason trade for Patriot third stringer Ryan Mallet. I see new coach O’Brien establishing the run with Arian Foster and playing his first game close to the vest, relying on his defense to win this game. | |||||||
01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos OVER 54.5 | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -102 | 163 h 54 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Pats/Broncos. There's no need to get into individual player match-ups today, we all know the strengths and weaknesses of each club. I'm basing this selection on strong O/U trends and common sense. New England had the fifth ranked offense, averaging 419 YPG; Denver is No. 6 with an average of 363 YPG. I simply expect the top two QB's of our generation to open up the playbook and to battle it out in a classic shootout. The Pats' weakness was clearly on the defensive side of the ball this season, and while Denver was fantastic to start, it stumbled many times in the second half, it's secondary will be in for a long day vs. New England's precise pivot. Note that New England has seen the total eclipse the number in four of its last six as an underdog, in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records and in eight of 13 vs. conference opponents this year. And note that Denver has seen the total soar above the posted number in six of nine home games this season and in seven of 13 vs. conference opponents. Expect this one to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 53.5 | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 41 m | Show |
10* "TOTALS CLUB" "under" Colts/Patriots. After their improbable 45-44, 28-point come from behind victory over the Chiefs last weekend, I fully expect the dome team Colts to stumble in what is expected to be extremely inclement weather conditions in New England on Saturday night. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck is going to have a hard time moving the ball tonight vs. the Patriots' talented CB tandem in Aqib Talib and Logan Ryan who combined for nine INTs this year. That said, the Colts won't be going down without a fight obviously; they can take solace in the fact that Patriots' QB Tom Brady had his worst passer rating (87.3) since his first full season in 2003. Also note that Brady was sacked 40 times this year, the most since 2001. And that's music to Indianapolis pass rusher Robert Mathis who led the league with 19.5 sacks and who had one last week as well. Brady has been getting the job done with a patchwork offensive unit all year, but the continued absence of TE Rob Gronkowski will definitely have an impact in this playoff contest; the team will be forced to lean heavily upon RB's LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley who combined for 1,545 yards and 14 scores this year. Note that Indianapolis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 24 road games. And note that New England has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in four of six this year after two or more consecutive SU wins. With both teams putting an added emphasis on the run game due to the weather conditions, combined with the strong situational factors and the "under" trends that each exhibit in this spot, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring "chess match" style of contest; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 47 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 148 h 0 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Chargers/Bengals. Not very interested in laying a full touchdown with a Bengals team that is 8-0 SU and ATS at home this year and not real interested in taking the seven with a San Diego squad that had the planets align just to get to this point. These teams met December 1st with Cincinnati winning 17-10 at Qualcomm with the teams combining for just 688 yards of total offense. The game was a virtual instant replay of their Dec 2, 2012 meeting in San Diego won by the Bengals 20-13 with the teams stuck with just 636 yards of total offense. The Bolts were 9-3 to the under in their conference games while the Bengals have been held to 21 points or less in half their games. Both teams will look to establish the run which will run clock and shorten the game making the under all the more probable. It's deja vu all over again today in the Queen City. | |||||||
12-29-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears UNDER 52 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Packers/Bears. This is a massive game for both teams. The NFC North is on the line. Each is coming off an embarrassing effort: Green Bay fell 38-31 at home to PIttsburgh, while Chicago was destroyed 54-11 at Philadelphia. Both sides will be looking to atone for those pathetic performances I played this total at 52, the moment it came out. It's since moved the other way. No matter, if you can get 52 or better, then you're loving it. The Packers have seen the total go 5-2 on the road this year, while Chicago has seen it go 5-2 at home (11-4 overall); when the dust does finally settle at the end of this game, I fully expect a "correction" to have occurred to these lop-sided numbers. Note though that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in three of five this year vs. teams with winning records, while Chicago has seen it dip below the posted number in three of five vs. division opponents. This is a great situational play, as I expect Packers' starting QB Aaron Rodgers to come in a with a bit of rust in his first game back from injury, leaning heavily on his team's improved rush attack. Rodgers would be wise to be keep his eyes open for the Bears' Lance Briggs, who looks for a better performance in his second game back in the lineup. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call in this one. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-22-13 | Denver Broncos v. Houston Texans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Broncos/Texans. The Denver Broncos are 11-3, while the Houston Texans are just 2-12. Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in six of seven at home this year, while Houston has seen it soar above the posted number in five of six on the road. These two amazingly lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I'm fully expecting a "correction" to have occurred. This is a great situational play as well, as both teams have key offensive weapons sitting out: for the Broncos, dynamic WR Wes Welker will be out for the playoffs, and for the Texans, RB Arian Foster will be sitting. The Broncos are in a fight still, but control their destiny, with a game in lowly Oakland next week. The one area that Denver obviously needs to fix is on the defensive side of the ball. Denver is looking to bounce back from a 27-20 defeat to San Diego last week; here's a perfect opponent for the defense to get untracked against. The Texans are stumbling to the finish line and managed just 3-points at Indianapolis last week. When the final whistle sounds this afternoon, I'm expecting to have witnessed a hard-fought, conservative style of game and for this number to ultimately sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Vikes/Bengals. As with most of "totals selections", this fits into one of my systems, but is also a great situational play. Minnesota has seen the total go 5-2 on the road this year, while Cincinnati has seen it go 4-2 at home. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I'm expecting a "correction" to have occurred. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 10 points range, while the Bengals have seen it dip below the number in ten of their last 18 vs. teams with losing records. I had a bad call last week with the Vikes' "under", as Minnesota was able to easily move the ball against the Eagles porous defensive unit; I don't think that happens at all this week though vs. a highly motivated Bengals team which is coming off a listless 30-20 setback at Pittsburgh last weekend. Note that Minnesota is just 4-9-1 this year, all four victories coming at home; it's an abysmal 0-6-1 away from friendly confines. Cincinnati is undefeated at home though and controls its playoff destiny; a game at home vs. Baltimore next week puts on added emphasis on today's contest. I'm expecting to see a highly concerted effort from the Bengals defensive unit. There's no question that the Vikes can put up some numbers in the dome, but their achilles heel has been their play on the road; with inclement conditions expect, look for their offense to stall once again. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to a lower-scoring game; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions UNDER 48.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 149 h 22 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ravens/Lions. Both teams are in position for a playoff birth, and as such, I'm expecting a smash-mouth, hard-hitting affair, an emphasis on ball and clock control by each. I look for this total to ultimately sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Baltimore is rolling, but faces a difficult end to its year with two of its final three on the road, including a visit to Cincinnati in its regular season finale. Detroit is stumbling down the stretch, loser of three of its last four. The Lions will be looking to atone for their pathetic effort in last week's "Snow Bowl" in Philadelphia in which they gave up a ghastly 28 points in the final 15 minutes. Expect a renewed commitment to the run game this week for the home side with the expected return of dynamic back Reggie Bush. Note that Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU victories. And note, despite the high-scoring shootouts its played in this season, Detroit has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in both of its Monday night contests over the last two seasons. A great situational play; I believe that the numbers, the trends and the situation all clearly point to the "under" as being the prudent wager in this particular matchup. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 51.5 | Top | 30-48 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 46 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Eagles/Vikings. If you've followed me for a while, you already know what I'm going to say, but for new clients, or for people hopping on board for this big play, I'm going to repeat something I've been trying to club everyone over the head with, which is just to let them know about my "handicapping style". I'm a situational handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process. I'm also a "numbers" guy. Did you ever see the movie "Moneyball" starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane? The movie is about how the A's organization transformed the way MLB clubs put together their teams. The A's unorthodox style of selecting their players looked purely at "numbers" (both statistical numbers and financial dollars), and not individual "star" players. That's pretty much how I handicap my games; I look at numbers and trends, not who is on the field, in the back-court, or between the pipes. Philadelphia has seen the total go 5-1 on the road this season, while Minnesota has seen it go 5-1 in front of the home town crowd. These amazingly lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon, and once the final whistle sounds at the end of the day, I expect a "correction" to have occurred. Note that Philadelphia has in fact already seen the total go "under" the number in three of four this year after two or more consecutive SU victories, and in three of four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. And note that Minnesota has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five vs. the Eagles franchise. This is a big game for the Eagles obviously as they look to win a sixth-straight. They'll be facing a Minnesota side that is likely to be without the services of star RB Adrian Peterson due to injury; note that if he does play, AP will be far from 100% today. So "looking past" the Vikes' is absolutely not something that Philadelphia can do: "It probably is (a trap game) in the media's eye, but we know that Minnesota is a great team and you can't get caught up looking at records or anything like that," Eagles' centre Jason Kelce said yesterday. "All you can do is focus on how they play defense, and then for me, focus on what's the best way to attack them and score points." Also note that Minnesota's competent backup RB Toby Gerhart missed practice this week as well because of a hamstring injury, and is also listed as questionable. Minnesota's offense has been a work in progress all year, and its defense has been pretty horrible; if the Vikes have any shot at winning today though, it's the defensive unit which will have to pick up the slack. I believe that a home-game is just what the doctor ordered to give the group the "shot in the arm" they need. The situation, trends and the numbers all point to the "under" as being the sharp wager in this one. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-08-13 | NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers OVER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 152 h 30 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Giants/Chargers. When you think of these two clubs, for the most part "offense" is one of the first things that comes to mind. With Eli Manning under center for New York and Philip Rivers in San Diego, there's no question that these two elite QB's have the potential to put points on the board in a hurry at any given moment. However, surprisingly that hasn't been the case for the Giants on the road this year as the total is just 2-4 for them away from friendly confines. And equally as surprising, the Chargers have seen the total go 2-3 at home this season. These two lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon and I'm absolutely expecting them to correct themselves in this game as each side opens up the playbook offensively. Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in three of four this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, and in 8 of its last 12 in the same position over the last two. And note that San Diego has seen it soar above the total in all three non-conference games it's played this season and in seven of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. Both teams still have playoff aspirations, and as such, we can expect each to push from the opening kickoff until the final whistle. A sunny afternoon in San Diego, along with the other factors I've listed above, all point to a higher-scoring shootout between these two hopeful clubs. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 54 | Top | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Lions/Eagles. Inclement weather forecasted has done little to effect this total. Detroit is 7-5, including 3-3 on the road. It hammered Green Bay 40-10 on Thanksgiving and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried over into this game. Philadelphia is 7-5, but just 2-4 in front of the home town crowd. It's coming off a 24-21 win over Arizona last weekend. Note that Detroit has seen the total fly above the posted number in four of five this year vs. teams with winning records, and in 15 of its last 24 over the last two seasons in the same position. And note that Philadelphia has seen it soar above the number in ten of its last 16 when playing against a team with a winning record. Both teams are rolling and I expect each to open up the playbook today. While Detroit looked better defensively last week, note that it was an oddity, its least amount of points given up in the last two years; expect the Lions' defensive unit to return to mediocrity in the hostile conditions. The Eagles have finally found their starting QB, the offense is rolling like a well oiled machine. That said, the defensive unit is clearly the weak point for Philadelphia, and there's no question that it will have its hands full with this explosive Lions offense. The situation and trends all point to a higher-scoring shootout; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-08-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Bills/Bucs. Here's a great situational play. Buffalo is 4-8, including only 1-4 away from friendly confines. Tampa Bay is 3-9, including only 2-4 at home. The Buccaneers have seen the total go 4-2 at home this year, while the Bills have seen it fly above the number in four of five on the road this season. These lop-sided trends collide on Sunday, and I absolutely look for them to correct themselves as I expect these two bottom feeders to slug it out in an ugly affair in early December. Note that Buffalo has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last seven as a road dog of 3 points or less. And note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this year when playing the role of favorite. Both teams made mistakes last week which cost them their respective games; Buffalo would cough the ball up in its final two possessions in Sunday's 34-31 OT loss to Atlanta in Toronto, guaranteeing the beleaguered club a 14th straight season without a playoff appearance. I believe that crushing setback will be weighing heavily on this teams' collective psyche. Tampa Bay was rolling with three straight victories but went into Carolina and got thoroughly embarrassed in a 26-7 setback, finishing with a dismal 206 total yards of offense. With both teams putting an added emphasis on running the ball while on offense, and overall ball and clock control, and when couple with the situation and strong "under" trends each team exhibits in this spot, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring affair. In this "chess match" style of game where field position becomes paramount, I'm going to play the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-01-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 41.5 | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 16 m | Show |
10* CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR "over" Buccaneers/Panthers. I am a situational handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I'm expecting to have seen a high-scoring shootout and for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that Tampa Bay has already seen the total go "over" the number in two of three in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year and in five of eight as an underdog. Carolina is one of the better defensive teams obviously; take note though that it's shown a penchant to playing to higher scoring games in this position already this year, the total flying above the number in three of five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Panthers have also seen the total go "over" the number in two of three vs. teams with losing records, and in 11 of their last 14 vs. division opponents (Tampa has seen it fly above the number in three of four vs. divisional foes this year). This is a big game for both teams. For Tampa it's an opportunity to build on three straight victories in which its totalled 87 points. It also looks to avenge a listless 31-13 loss at home to Carolina back in Week 8. For Carolina, another divisional win is on the line today as it goes for its eighth straight victory, before a big game on the road next week in New Orleans. This sets up as a classic high-scoring shootout in my opinion. Tampa has a ton of confidence and I believe can catch a somewhat complacent home side defense off-guard and put some points on the board today, putting pressure on the Panthers do likewise. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" 49ers/Redskins. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these NFC foes to battle tough on the national stage and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. The 49ers The 49ers are 6-4, including 3-2 on the road. To say their in a tough division would be an understatement I have to think after the way the Rams and Cardinals dominated yesterday. Last week the 49ers would lose a frustrating 23-20 game in New Orleans, a contest which was theirs for the taking late. And because of the way the team lost, I fully expect it to be focused on the task at hand this evening, with no reason at all to look ahead to anything. Note that San Francisco has seen the total dip below the number in 11 of its last 20 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, and interestingly in two of its last three when playing on Monday Night Football. The Redskins Washington is just 3-7 overall and 2-2 at home. They say "winning" solves everything; if that's the case, then losing sure has a way of amplifying the weaknesses. The Redskins most recently lost a listless 24-16 game at Philadelphia on Sunday. Having already seen the total go "under" the number in both games this year after two or more consecutive losses, note that Washington has seen it dip below the number in eight of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. The Bottom Line After epic rookie seasons a year ago, both teams' QB's have gone through some growing pains in 2013, both on and off the field. San Francisco's QB Colin Kaepernick is ranked 31st in the league in completion percentage at just 56.2, along with only 11 TD passes. Washington's QB Robert Griffin III has completed less than 60 percent of his passes for only 14 TD's to 10 INT's. So while the media discusses these polarizing pivots, we'll instead put our focus on the units which will be looking to play big tonight, and that's each team's defense. With each side putting an added emphasis on the run game to alleviate pressure off of their maligned QB and with a couple of stout defensive units going head to head on MNF, all signs point to a lower-scoring battle. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 44.5 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Colts/Cardinals. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these two offensively minded dome teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to fly above the number early. Having already seen the total eclipse the number in two of three non-conference games this year, note that Indianapolis has seen it go 7-3 in the same position over the last two. And note that Arizona has seen it sail above the number in ten of its last 16 vs. clubs with winning records. The Colts are 4-1 on the road, while Arizona is 4-1 at home. Cards' QB Carson Palmer was 30 of 42 for 419 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's 27-14 win over the Jaguars; in all the veteran has completed nearly 69% of his passes with six TDs and two INTs over his last three games. QB Andrew Luck continues to shine for the visitors, but last week it was RB Donald Brown who would steal the show, going for a season-high 80 yards and scoring two second half majors. The conditions, situation and trends clearly point to a high-scoring game; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans UNDER 43 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 140 h 43 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Jaguars/Texans. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these two struggling divisional foes to battle tough in Houston and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the afternoon. The Jaguars At 1-9 overall and 1-4 on the road, Jacksonville has actually been one of the most talked about teams this season, but for all the wrong reasons. It's looked pretty inept in all three phases, showing flashes of promise for a play or two. Despite the high-scoring games that it's been involved in this year, this has in fact been a spot which Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the number many times over the last two seasons; 4-10 to be exact in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents. The Texans Houston has always been a "sexy" darkhorse pick to win the Super Bowl, and that was once again the case in the offseason this year, however a number of different issues on both sides of the ball were exposed early and this team has struggled ever since. It's safe to say, at 2-8 overall and 1-4 at home, this is not where the Texans expected to be at this point of the season. Houston has been a disaster for bettors ATS this year, but for O/U bettors that have played the "over" in Texans' games, it's been a non-stop buffet of profits. That's why it's important to note that Houston has in fact seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 10 points range. The Bottom Line Houston will start QB Case Keenum for a fifth straight time; he looked decent in last week's loss to the Raiders, but pretty inept in the second half, eventually getting pulled to make way for Matt Schaub. However, if the home side wants to break out of its funk, there's just one way to do it and that's to dominate defensively. The Texans rank first in the NFL in total yards allowed and passing yards. That doesn't bode well for a Jags team which was held to just 274 total yards in last week's 27-14 home loss to the Cardinals. Jacksonville amassed a season-low 32 yards on the ground. Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars are last in the league in averaging just 12.9 PPG. Look for the defensive units to be the main story in tomorrow's summaries and play the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 33 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Chargers/Chiefs. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these division rivals to open up the playbook and for this total to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in two of three this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in seven of eight in the same position over the last two. It's almost impossible to find a single "over" trend for the Chiefs in any statistical category over the last two seasons, meaning that it's doubly important to note that it has in fact seen the total fly above the posted number in three of its last five as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. This is an important game for the home side, which must quickly forget about last week's loss to the Broncos, focus on this divisional contest and not get caught "looking ahead" to another matchup vs. Denver on the horizon: "As great as it is to win, it's lousy when you lose. We have to find a way to deal with it," Chiefs' QB Alex Smith said yesterday. "We have to find a way to get better and prepare for (Sunday). We see (the Broncos) again in two weeks, but we have to prepare for another big division game (Sunday). These games keep getting bigger." Expect Smith and RB Jamaal Charles to get back on track this week after a sub-par effort vs. the Broncos. The Chargers will be motivated to hand the home side another loss; despite QB Philip Rivers throwing for 298 yards and RB Ryan Mathews going for a season-high 127 on the ground, the Chargers were limited to their fewest points of the season in last week's 20-16 loss at Miami, their fourth straight. Expect the Bolts' veteran QB to come out slinging, looking to take advantage of a secondary which was finally exposed vs. Denver last week. When you add it all up, all signs definitely point to a higher-scoring game; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 41.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 120 h 32 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Panthers/Dolphins. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these non-conference opponents to battle tough in Miami and for this total to sneak below the posted number at the end of the afternoon. Note that Carolina has already seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of four this year after two or more consecutive victories. Having already seen the total dip below the posted number in three of five this year when playing the role of underdog, note that Miami has seen it go 10-16 in the same position over the last two. Carolina has been getting the job done quietly on both sides of the ball. QB Cam Newton is evolving once again into one of the elite in the league, seemingly "growing up" over night, being wise with his decisions and precise with his performance: "It's just fantastic, just watching Cam grow, watching him lead this team, watching him go 83 yards," Carolina's WR Steve Smith echoed earlier in the week. "You hear all about statistics, about other guys having game-winning drives. Now Cam has his game-winning drive against a big team, against a worthy opponent. Just watching the young man grow - I just saw that young, 24-year-old Cam Newton just chipping away." The Panthers' defense is led by DE Charles Johnson, first in the NFL in scoring defense at just 13.5 points allowed per game. The Fish won't go down without a fight though and looked great in slowing down the high-flying Chargers in last week's 20-16 victory. These are two tough defensive units going head to head; in these types of "chess match" style of contests where field position becomes paramount, there's only one way to play it: play on the "under"! Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Bears/Rams. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these conference rivals to battle tough under the dome and for this total to ultimately stay below the posted number. Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this season when playing the role of underdog, and in nine of 16 in the same position over the last two. And note that St. Louis has shown a penchant to play to an "under" in this position over the last two seasons, the total dipping below the number in ten of its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Both teams are starting second string QB's. With Jay Cutler injured, Josh McCown will once again get the start for the Bears; in four games and two starts, McCown has thrown for 754 yards, five major scores and zero INT's. But as good as Chicago's offense has been at times this year, it's been the defense which has improved the most over the last few outings. Chicago has won two of its last three, giving up an average of just 20.3 points in the process. That doesn't bode well today for the Rams' Kellen Clemens; Clemens got his first win in three starts last time out in place of the injured Sam Bradford. St. Louis is coming out of its bye. Just like Chicago, while its offense has looked pretty good overall this year, it's been St. Louis' defensive unit which has really been turning the heads of late. Keep your eyes on Robert Quinn who had two sacks in his last outing. No need to overanalyze this one. A couple backups vs. two of the hottest defenses = a hard-fought low-scoring battle. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" 49ers/Saints. San Francisco is 6-3 overall and 3-1 on the road. It's coming off a listless 10-9 loss at home to Carolina last week. The 49ers inefficiency in the pass game has been fully exposed and we can now expect teams to use the same blue print of success every week to get into the back field to disrupt oft-maligned QB Colin Kaepernick. New Orleans is 7-2, including 5-0 at home. It's coming off a high-scoring 49-17 annihilation of the Cowboys last week. The Saints though will now face one of the better defensive units in the league, one which has held its last three opponents to a combined 37 points over its last three games. Despite the higher-scoring games that San Francisco has been involved in this year, note that it has in fact seen the total dip below the number in two of its last three as a road dog of 3 points or less. And note that New Orleans has seen the total go "under" the number in four of five vs. conference opponents this year. The Bottom Line San Francisco will make you pay if you force the long ball and as such, I expect the home side to really pound the rock today; this of course leads to ample clock killing. San Francisco will also need to establish its run game throughout to alleviate the pressure off of Kaepernick. The situational factors and trends all point to a low-scoring battle; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants UNDER 43 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Packers/Giants. The Packers are 5-4, including 2-2 on the road. When starting QB Aaron Rodgers went down, the team promptly has lost two straight, combining to score just 33 points in the process, including a listless 27-13 setback at home to the Eagles last week. The Giants are 3-6, including 2-2 at home. They're coming off three straight victories, holding their opposition to just 34 points in the process. A great situational play here; Green Bay needs to lean heavily on RB Eddie Lacy throughout without its star under center to guide things. New York has put an added emphasis on running the ball as well during its win streak, topping 30 carries in each contest during its streak. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. Note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 13 of its last 20 vs. teams with winning records. The Bottom Line All signs definitely point to an all out war and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the total to sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | Detroit Lions v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 93 h 41 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Lions/Steelers. Detroit is 6-3, including 3-2 on the road. Last week it held on for a 21-19 win at Chicago. Pittsburgh is 3-6, including 2-2 at home. Last week it beat Buffalo 23-10. Detroit leads the NFC North and will look to separate itself from the rest of the pack with a big win on the road at Heinz Field. The Steelers clearly have a different plan though, and sitting at 3-6, they still mathematically have a shot at winning the AFC North with Cincinnati at just 6-4. Note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in both non-conference games it's played this season. Note that like their counterparts, the Steelers have seen the total go "over" the number in both of their non-conference match-ups this year. The Bottom Line Before the game vs. the lowly Bills, the Steelers defense had given up a mind-boggling 76 points in back to back losses to the Raiders and Patriots. This is not a good unit and is clearly a weak point for the team. That said, Pittsburgh's offense has looked much better of late and has been the unit which has had to win the games this year, putting up 54 points over the last two outings. The Lions' offense is licking its proverbial chops to get at the home sides' inept unit this week you can count on that. When the smoke clears at the the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak above the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Chicago Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 93 h 40 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ravens/Bears. Baltimore is 4-5 overall and just 1-4 on the road. It's coming off a 20-17 win over rival Cincinnati though and will definitely be looking to parlay that success (especially on the defensive end, remember, the Bengals had put up a combined 71 points over their previous two games) with another big effort in hostile territory. Chicago is 5-4, including 3-2 at home. It's coming off a 21-19 setback vs. Detroit on Sunday, losing its starting QB in the process. A great situational play here; Baltimore clearly showed progress on the defensive side of the ball last week and it will be putting an added emphasis on ball and clock control while on offense at blustery Soldier Field. The Bears will be without starting QB Jay Cutler for at least one contest as he deals with a sprained ankle. That means the team will be leaning extra heavily on RB Matt Forte, who will be extra motivated himself after being held to a season-low 33 yards on 17 carries last week. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in three of five on the road this season. Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival. The Bottom Line When you think of these two teams, the very first thing that comes to mind is: "extremely tough defensive units". But for the most part, that's simply not been the case this season. I believe that changes this week though; the situation sets up perfectly as a smash mouth style of contest, where field position becomes paramount, and in these "chess match style" of games, I'll always take the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 173 h 42 m | Show |
10* O/U BOOKIEKILLER "over" Dolphins/Bucs. Miami is 4-4, including 2-2 on the road. It's coming off a 22-20 win over the Bengals back on Halloween night. Tampa Bay has yet to win a game this year and is coming off a disheartening 27-24 setback at Seattle last week, a game in which it fell apart down the stretch. With both teams letting it all hang out tonight, I believe that the defenses will take a back seat to some explosive offensive fireworks and look for this total to sail above the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Dolphins A great situational play; finally Miami can get out on the field and play and have something else to talk about than the Incognito scandal. A victory would put the Fish back into the front running of the AFC Wild-card race. Keep your eyes on RB Lamar Miller who had 105 yards on 16 carries last week. The defense looked sharp, sacking Andy Dalton for a safety in OT for the win and forcing four turnovers. QB Ryan Tannehill threw zero INT's. Note that Miami has already seen the total eclipse the number in both games that it's played this season as a favorite. The Buccaneers Tampa looks to make amends after letting a fourth quarter lead slip away to the Seahawks: "Tough loss, but there's a lot of good things on that tape. ... Things we can build off of," coach Greg Schiano said afterwards. There were definitely some silver linings to take out of the loss though as the 24 points scored by the Bucs was a season-high. QB Mike Glennon was 17 of 23 for 168 yards last week; he's thrown five TDs and no INTs over his last three games. Note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" the posted number in four of six this year as an underdog, and in 17 of 28 in the same position over the last two. The Bottom Line All signs point to a higher scoring affair; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 144 h 19 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Panthers/49ers. Carolina has seen the total go 4-4 this year, including 3-1 on the road. Last week it annihilated the Falcons 34-10. San Francisco has seen the total go 5-3 this season, including 2-2 at home. It's won five straight, including a 42-10 annihilation of the Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Both clubs are loaded defensively and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect these units to be the main story line in tomorrow's headlines. The Panthers Carolina has won four in a row over mediocre competition. It will have to be at it's best today to knock off the home side which comes into this game having won five straight. "I think a lot of people are doubting us and what not," tackle Jordan Gross said earlier in the week. "But we know how good we are and we've just got to go out there every week and prove it." QB Cam Newton will have his hands full today as the 49ers ranks fourth in the league in opponent passer rating at 75.3. Note that Carolina has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of its last five off a win vs. a conference rival. The 49ers Like Carolina, San Francisco's win streak hasn't come against very good teams. That said, there's no question that it's turned things around after a sluggish start. RB Frank Gore is second in the NFL in rushing since Week 3 with 558 yards; he'll have to contend with the NFL's second-best run defense in the Panthers who allow only 79.1 YPG. QB Colin Kaepernick is in line for a tough outing as well as Carolina has given up a total of 43 yards on 21 carries to opposing QB's this season with zero TDs. Note that the 49ers' passing games ranks last in yardage this season. And note that San Francisco has seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bottom Line Offenses that are geared to run the ball vs. the league's elite defensive units; all signs point to a hard-hitting, low-scoring defensive battle. Play on the "under". Good Luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-10-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show |
10* play "under" Seahawks/Falcons. Seattle has seen the total go 5-4 so far this season, including 3-2 on the road. Last week it came from behind to to beat the Bucs 27-24 in front of the home town crowd. Atlanta has seen the total go 5-3 this year, including 4-0 at home. It's lost two straight on the road, including a listless 34-10 setback at Carolina last week. After sub-par performances from each side in its last game, I look for each to put an added emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week and look for this total to sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Seahawks The 'Hawks come in with a chip on their shoulder after getting ousted from the playoffs by a FG in Atlanta last season. Expect a big defensive performance today; Seattle owns the leagues second ranked unit, allowing just 296 YPG. It's second in the NFL in passing yards allowed (under 180 per game), and is tied for the most INTs with 13. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" the posted number in in two of three road games this season when there total is between 42.5 and 45 points. The Falcons QB Matt Ryan is in for a long day today as he's throw seven INTs to just two TDs in back to back losses: "I think everybody is disappointed with where we're at, there's no question about it," Ryan said earlier in the week. "I think there were high expectations for our football team coming into the year, but certainly things have not gone as we'd hoped. "You've got to keep plugging away. You've got to keep working hard and try to find ways to make it better. I think that's what all of us are trying to do." The Falcons will look to once again get their ground untracked, last in the league in averaging 64.4 per game and just three rushing TDs. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go "under" the posted number in nine of its last 13 vs. teams with winning records. The Bottom Line A visiting side with a score to settle. A home team that's desperate to turn things around. This will be an all out war; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-04-13 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 228 h 42 m | Show |
10* "MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR" Bears/Packers "under". I played this game ten days ago and have 48.5. That line has now moved quite a bit the other way. Regardless of that, I absolutely love this selection and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, fully expect this total to stay below the posted number. The Bears Chicago lost 45-41 at Washington two weeks ago. Under new head coach Mark Trestman, the Bears have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league thus far, the O/U sitting at 6-1. In fact, over the last two seasons you'd be hard pressed to find a single "under" trend for Chicago in any statistical category. Therefore, it's definitely significant to note that the Bears have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Packers Green Bay pulled away for a relatively simple 44-31 win at Minnesota last week. Green Bay has been one of the higher-scoring teams over the last few seasons, but has actually seen that trend reverse dramatically this year, especially at Lambeau; note that the Packers have seen the total go "under" the number in both games this season vs. teams with winning records and in two of three in front of the home town crowd. The Bottom Line Whenever these clubs get together it's an all out battle as evidenced by the fact that the O/U is 1-4 the last five in the series. Without Jay Cutler under center this week, the Bears will have a hard time moving the ball; note that Green Bay has won 11 straight at home, allowing an average of just 14.7 points, and in the last five of those games has given up just three field goals and no TDs in the first half. With Cutler out, expect to see a heavy dose of RB Matt Forte this evening. Chicago will have its hands full on the defensive side of the ball but catches a bit of a break with injuries to Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and James Jones. The Bears will also have to handle a run game which is ranked near the top of the league with an average of 141.4 per contest. With inclement conditions forecast and when taking into account all of the other factors that I listed above, all signs point to a hard-hitting, smash-mouth lower-scoring Monday Night Football. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
Service | Profit |
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Nick Parsons | $968 |
Jack Jones | $847 |
Scott Rickenbach | $769 |
Ricky Tran | $750 |
Joseph D'Amico | $680 |
Rob Vinciletti | $575 |
Ross Benjamin | $550 |
Dana Lane | $524 |
Rocky Atkinson | $512 |
Dr. Chuck | $508 |