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This is a 5% WESTERN CONFERENCE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Storm.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm primarily a situational capper. The players rarely enter into my equation when making my picks, as their absence is reflected in the line already. I'm basing my picks on what I perceive to be great situations, combined with great line value.

And so I just love the way this one sets up for the Seattle Storm to not only win at home in a revenge spot in the final game before the All-Star break, but to do so in blowout fashion.

The Valkyries were the talk of the league in their inaugural season here after a decent start, but since an 84-67 upset win at home over Seattle as five-point underdogs back on June 29th, they've gone just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS since.

The Storm have gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS since that loss. Seattle has been trading wins and losses over its last four games, and off a 74-69 setback at home to Washington, Skylar Diggins-Smith and the home side are going to be the hungrier team in this fight in my estimation. They're more motivated, and they also have the added incentive of playing with revenge.

Golden State has exceeded expectations over the first half of 2025, but it's conceded a combined 182 points over its last two losses. 

Look for a more focused home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to win and cover once it's all said and done.

The play is on SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BLOOD-BATH on the Seattle Storm.

Seattle is coming off a home and home set against the Sun, somehow losing in Connecticut, but then bouncing back in a 79-65 victory at home on Friday.

I think the Storm carry over that momentum here and not only win this first matchup of the year against Washington, but do so in blowout fashion.

Just a great "situational" play here, as I anticipate Washington to have a letdown here on the raod after back-to-back home wins as a favorite and with a game on Tuesday to "look ahead" to in LA.

The Mystics are just 3-7 on the road. The Storm are 7-3 at home.

Look for the STORM to rumble to a comfortable win and cover.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER SIDE on the Sun.

Seattle is now 12-7 overall and 6-4 on the road, but I think this game as a huge road favorite sets up as "trap" for the Storm.

Off consecutive road wins as an underdog, and with a rematch at home against the Sun on Friday night, not only is it a natural letdown spot after the back-to-back wins as a dog, but also a "look-ahead" position in being able to return home to play Connecticut again. 

The Sun are struggling to win, and they're struggling to cover spreads as well. Tina Charles and the home side won't be lacking motivation here. 

As primarily a "situational" capper, I think this one sets up well for the hungry Sun to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

I'm not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm grabbing the poitns with CONNETICUT.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW on the Phoenix Mercury.

Enough is enough for Phoenix, which will look to avenge a 98-89 loss at Dallas as an 11.5-point favorite last week.

After six straight wins, the Mercury have cooled off with back-to-back losses as favorites, but I think that Satou Saballay and company will not only avenge their loss in Dallas, but do so in blowout fashion now here at home on Monday night.

I'm primarily a situational capper, and these are the types of circumstances that I'm constantly keeping my eyes open for during the season. Yes, the Wings are playing well right now as they've won three of their last four as a big underdog.

Dallas, though, is still just 6-13 overall this year, including only 2-7 on the road.

And despite their two-game slide, the Mercury are still 12-6 overall, including 7-3 at home.

Paige Buekers and the Wings have a much more "winnable" game at Chicago up after this, followed by a much more high-profile game at Indiana after that.

Not only does this set up as a natural ledown spot for the visitors after back-to-back wins as a big underdog in my opinion, but also a "look-ahead" spot. 

And when you add those two factors together, you get "TRAP" game.

I say the hungry and revenge-minded home side snaps out of it, and keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Lay the points with confidence on the MERCURY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on the Phoenix Mercury.

As primarily a situational handicapper, I love the way that this one sets up for the Mercury. 

Who haven't played since June 21st and who enter on a five-game win streak. Who are 11-4 overall, 6-2 at home and No. 2 in the Western Conference.

Satou Sabally and company also already destroyed the Liberty 89-81 as 11.5 points on the road just two weeks ago. 

The Liberty managed to snap a two-game slide with an 81-78 win at Golden State last time out, but they failed to cover the 9.5 point spread. I had New York in that one.

But just a bad spot for Breana Stewart, Sabrina Ionescou and the reest of the Liberty in my opinion, as they have a look-ahead game here at 10-5 Atlanta, with the Dream currently in the No. 2 spot in the East.

On the season the Liberty aer averaging 87.8 points per game, while allowing 77.3. The Mercurcy average 82.3 PPG, while allowing 78.2.

New York is PROBABLY the better team overall here, but the situation definitely favors the home side in my opinion.

While an outright win obviously wouldn't shock me, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with PHOENIX.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on the Washington Mystics.

Washington is 7-8, but it's been playing better of late, winning three of its last four, including two in a row. 

It plays with revenge after a 75-72 loss here back in May. I anticipate another tight battle here after the Aces played, and won 85-59 over Connecticut here just last night.

Look for fatigue to be a factor for the home side in the second game of the back-to-back.

And with a five-game road trip on deck after this, not only does it set up as a letdown spot for the home side, but also a look-ahead.

So look for the revenge-minded MYSTICS to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch!

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ASSASSIN on the Liberty.

The Liberty are now 10-3 after back-to-back losses. In fact, Breanna Stewart and company have now dropped three of their last four.

A date vs. the 7-6 Golden State Valkyries is just what the doctor ordered though in my opinion.

Golden State has a balanced team, led by Kayla Thorton, hwo averages 15.2 points per game.

These teams played in New York back in late May and the Liberty pulled away for the 82-77 win, unable to cover the massive 14.5-point spread. 

Stewart was pretty much unstoppable though, finishing with 27 points, while Sabrina Ionescu added 24 points.

Golden State was led by 18 points from Janelle Salaun in the losing cause.

The Valkyries have been money in the bank for bettors early on, going 9-4 ATS, but with a much more "winnable" game here at home against 3-10 Chicago on Thursday night, I think Golden State is primed for a letdown/look-ahead here. 

New York though is hungry to snap the short-term poor play, and I say that this is a great spot to get that done.

I anticipate the "better" team to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion.

Lay the points and take the LIBERTY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indiana Fever.

The 9-5 Seattle Storm come into their Tuesday night game vs. the 6-7 Indiana Fever on a three-game win streak.

The visitors, though, enter desperate to avoid a three-game losing streak after falling at Golden State 88-77 as an 11-point fav, and then 89-81 at Las Vegas as a 1-point dog.

Overall, Seattle averages 83.1 points per game this season, while allowing 78.4. The Storm are led by Skylar Diggins, who averages 18.4 points and distributes 6.1 assists per game.

The Fever are averaging 83.2 PPG, while conceding 78.8. Caitlin Clark averages 8.9 assists per game, while Kelsey Mitchell actually leads the scoring at 17.3 points per game.

This is the first matchup of the year between the clubs. In their last meeting in Indiana back in August of 2024, the Fever won 92-75. The Storm were a four-point favorite in that one.

And now they're a two-point favorite at home.

I think this is bit of a bad matchup for Seattle though. Look for Mitchell and Clark to set the pace and expect the FEVER to play with extreme desperation as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak.

That said, grab the points. The play is on INDIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Aces.

As primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up for the home side. The outright victory isn't out of the question, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

These teams have played twice already. Both times in Seattle. They're 1-1 SU/ATS against each other, but now playing for the first time in Vegas, I say this one favors A'Ja Wilson and the Aces.

Seattle is playing well, having won four of its last five, including a 98-67 beatdown at LA last time out. 

But I say this one will set up as a "TRAP" game for the visitors, who have games at home against 10-1 New York, followed by an even more high-profile contest at home against Caitlin Clark and the Fever after that.

Las Vegas, though, comes in desperate now to snap a two-game slide, most recently a 78-62 loss at Minnesota.

The Aces have, in fact, failed to cover in five straight games, but now I think the value has finally swung the other way.

This is the start of a four-game home stand for LAS VEGAS, and I think the Aces come out and get the job done; grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WNBA GOW on the Chicago Sky.

New York is undefeated, but the Sky play with revenge following a 99-74 setback at home back in May.

With a game at Indiana next, I think the home side takes the foot off the gas and gets caught "looking ahead."

No outright, but much closer than expected.

Grab the points, the play is on the SKY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% WEST-CONF GAME OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Lynx.

Phoenix is 5-2 and coming off an 85-80 win over LA. Satou Sabally led the way with 24 points. Overall the Mercury average 78.8 PPG. 

Minnesota though is 7-0 and it's coming off an 86-58 win over Minnesota on Sunday, with Napheesa Collier scoring 24 points. 

These teams played in Phoenix just last week and the Lynx picked up the 74-71 win, unable to cover the spread on the road.

Now back at home though, I like MINNESOTA to not only win this one as well, but to do so in blowout fashion, so lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WNBA DOG OF MONTH on the Wings.

Seattle has lost four of its last seven on the road. It averages 83.2 PPG, while allowing 78.6. Overall the Storm are 22-14 and third in the Western Conference.

Dallas is just 9-28, and it is desperate now to stop a six-game SU/ATS slide. It plays with double-revenge here though after losing both games SU/ATS to Seattle earlier in the season. 

The Wings have two really tough games on the road to end the season. This is the final home game of the year.

Seattle though has two more home games vs. LA and Las Vegas, before finishing off at Phoenix, which is currently in fourth.

I say DALLAS catches the Storm at a great time and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a comfortable cover in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on the LA Sparks.

I think this is a great situational play. The Storm have been trading wins/losses over their last four games, most recently off a 90-66 win at home over Phoenix. 

Seattle has covered in three straight, but note that the Storm are in fact just 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more straight covers in a row.

LA is getting ready to play a home-and-home set with the Storm, but Seattle will have another game at Dallas in between. The Sparks have lost three straight against the spread, but note that LA is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after three or more ATS losses in a row.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything is definitely in place for a solid cover here for the SPARKS. So grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Dream.

Minnesota is 26-9 and rolling through its opposition with ease right now, but I say that it finally has a bit of a mental letdown here. 

Minnesota has already beaten Atlanta twice at home this year, winning and covering in the first game and "pushing" in the second on July 17th by winning 86-79 as a 7-point fav.

But with three nights off before a "cream puff" at home vs. the lowly Chicago Sky, I say the visitors get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent here.

ATL is 12-23 and fifth in the East. It's been trading wins/losses over its last five games and has been extremely competitive of late by playing B2B OT contests.

Off a 104-100 OT loss at Indiana as a 5-point dog, I think the Dream will keep tonight's contest tight as well.

I'm not ruling out a big upset here, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EAST-CONF GOW on Indiana.

I came up short with Indiana in its opening game vs. the veteran-laden Connecticut Sun, and now Caitlin Clark and company face another tough, experienced side in the Liberty.

But with that first game under their belts, I believe the home side will make the necessary adjustments to be a lot more competitive this time around and I expect them to, at the very least, to keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the large amount of points that they've been afforded on Thursday night.

New York is off the 85-80 road win at Washington, but was unable to cover the large 14.5-point spread.

This is the opener and of a home and home set between these teams, with the reverse-fixture happening in New York on Saturday.

Look for the FEVER to get the job done on Thursday.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* SHOCKER on Indiana.

The Fever added Caitlin Clark, one of the best players ever coming out of College and while they may not win this one outright, I expect the visitors to keep it super interesting until the final moments at the very least.

Indiana has a ton of talent now and the sky is the limit moving forward.

The Sun have their core of DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas and DiJonai Carrington. Brionna Jones is back from ijury as well.

I say the "hungrier" younger team comes to play today and pushes the pace and keeps this one interesting vs. the vets.

Grab the points, the play is INDIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dream.

I think this is a great "situational" play.

Atlanta is 15-14 and now third in the East ater dropping three of its last four. Most recently the Dream fell 68-67 at Seattle as five-point favorites.

But with a super tough game at Las Vegas tomorrow night, Atlanta simply can't afford to "look past" the 11-18 Sparks.

LA has snapped a three-game slide by winning two in a row as an underdog, but after six straight ATS covers, I believe the home side is now a tiny bit overvalued by the bookmakers now.

The Sparks have a seven-game break after this, and I believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead." 

This one simply means more to ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Fever.

I like the way this one sets up for the home side from a situational stand-point. 

Indiana is just 7-22. It's not a good team, but this is a good spot. Off three straight SU losses, and six straight ATS losses, the value has now swung to the Fever, who are 8-2 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU losses in a row.

Indiana plays with revenge as well after a 90-83 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog back in July. That's also significant to note, as the Fever are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Minnesota broke a two-game slide with an 88-79 win at Chicago to move to 14-15, but with four straight games vs. Western Conference opponents after this (Seattle twice, followed by Dallas twice), I say the visitors also get caught "looking ahead." 

As stated off the top, a great situational play in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is INDIANA.  

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Liberty.

This is a great "situational" play on New York. The Liberty are No. 1 in the East, but they've failed to cover the spread in three straight, despite going 2-1 SU.

Note though that New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

The Liberty also play with revenge after falling 88-83 at home to Minnesota just last week as 13.5-point favs, which is also significant to note, as New York is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Minnesota's three-game win streak was snapped in a 79-69 loss at Connecticut last time out and I say it's going to stumble here as well.

Lay the points, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Las Vegas.

With nearly 70% of the public money on the Wings here, I'm going the opposite way and expecting the Aces to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

These teams have played twice this year, and Dallas 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after winning 80-78 at home as a 9.5-point dog back on July 7th.

Note though that the Aces are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. 

Dallas has a couple days off after this before a much "easier" game at Seattle, and I think it also gets caught "looking ahead." 

All things considered, I feel this line should in fact be a lot larger.

Grab the points, the play is the ACES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Storm.

Here is a great situational play, as Seattle plays with double revenge in this one after two earlier SU/ATS losses (and note that the Storm are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.)

Las Vegas is 19-2 and not only No. 1 in the West, but easily No. 1 in the league. A big All Star Weekend hangover is about to occur though in my opinion, with the Storm coming in as the more organized and focused side.

Outright win?! I'm definitely not calling for that. But the overall situation, combined with the trends and numbers I listed above, all collide here and point to this contest being a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on the Fever.

The Fever play with revenge here after falling 90-73 at New York back on May 21st. Indiana has now lost seven straight after a slim 77-76 setback to Dallas last time out. 

The Liberty get caught looking past their lowly opponent today to time off and to a big representation at the All Star Weekend festivities. 

Note that Indiana is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. 

New York takes the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, I say this one is super competitive until the final moments.

So grab as many points as you can, the play is INDIANA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Sky.

I'm primarily a situational handicapper, and this one sets up beautifully for Chicago in a few different ways from my point of view.

The Sky play with revenge here after a 96-72 road loss at Connecticut as 6.5-point dogs back on June 25th.

That's significant to note though, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. 

Chicago had won three straight SU/ATS before back-to-back SU/ATS home losses to ATL most recently. I say the hungry Sky will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.

The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Storm.

I played on the Storm in their 80-76 loss at New York last time out. Seattle was a 15.5 point dog in that one.

New York almost got "caught looking ahead" in that one, and with the All-Star break on deck next for Washington, I think the Mystics will get caught looking past their lowly opponent here.

I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but once again the conditions are right for Seattle to be extremely competitive, especially considering that the Storm have another tough game tomorrow night at Atlanta to close out their first half.

Washington has been playing poorly, just 1-3 in its last four and the Storm play with the added incentive of revenge after the Mystics took both games in Seattle back on June 9th and 11th (and note that Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last seven in trying ot avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent.)

A great situational play. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOY on the Fever.

Dallas comes in off a huge 80-78 win at home over Las Vegas (the Aces now fall to 16-2) as a 9.5-point underdog, and after that epic victory, I'm expecting an immediate return to mediocrity here. 

Dallas is now 9-9 and second in the Western Conference, but with a match at Minnesota up next (who is also 9-9 and actually tied with the Wings for second place), there's no question that this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors.

Letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME.

Indiana is just 5-13 and it's lost six straight. But that fact has only helped in skewing this line today, flipping the value to this now undervalued home dog.

When these teams last played in Minnesota last year, the Lynx won by a score of 95-91 in OT as 13-point favorites. I expect a similar final outcome here as well.

Grab the points, the play is INDIANA.

(This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Storm.

New York is first in the East. It's 12-4. It's off back-to-back wins, including an 81-66 win at Seattle on July 2nd, followed by a 99-95 victory at home here to Phoenix.

The Storm have responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

I think the Liberty finally get caught a little flat-footed here and I look for the STORM to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

(This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dream.

A great revenge spot here for Atlanta, which fell 109-86 at Washington as a five-point dog in its last outing. 

ATL has now lost three straight SU/ATS and that's important to note, as the Dream are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They're also 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

Washington is 9-5 and it's gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Mystics though are interestingly just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after five or more straight ATS victories in a row.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BEST OF BEST on Phoenix.

Indiana is coming off consecutive losses at Las Vegas, but it's covered in three straight after previous winning 80-68 at Seattle. 

I think the Fever have a letdown here in Phoenix with their fourth straight away from friendly confines.

The Mercury have lost six, both SU and ATS. Note though that Phoenix is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. 

Indiana finally returns home after this to play Chicago in a few days, and I think it gets caught looking ahead.

The outright is clearly possible, but the official call is to grab the points and the MERCURY.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on the Sky.

After six striaght SU losses, and three straight ATS losses in a row, I expect the Sky to dig deep here and finally deliver at home in the opener of this two-game series here in Chicago.

Note that the Sky are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS losses in a row.

LA is off two straight SU/ATS victories, but it struggles on the road. 

Look for Chicago to dig deep here as it finally gets off the schneid and back into the winner's circle.

Good luck, NP