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4% SYRACUSE/UNLV TGIF TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The UNLV Rebels are perfect 4-0 SU and ATs for the season, and last week's 59-14 rout of Fresno State as a mere 2.5-point favorite was particularly impressive as it came on the heels of starting quarterback Matthew Sluka opting to redshirt the rest of the 2024 season.

I think the team will rally behind their new starting QB, Hajj-Malik Williams, for at least one more game.

The Orange are 3-1 SU, but only 1-3 ATS, and there are a lot of holes in their defense to exploit. 

4% PLAY ON UNLV. 

4% BUCS/FALCONS NFL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking a lot better than expected. Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 33-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and I think he'll have success against the Falcons who have traded wins and losses through their first four games. As they're coming off a 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints, I think that trend will continue and they'll come up short this week. 

4% PLAY ON THE BUCS. 

4% SEAHAWKS/LIONS NFL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The Seattle Seahawks have allowed just 248.7 yards per game (2nd), but this will be a big step up in competition compared to the offenses they've faced.

The Detroit Lions are well-balanced and can attack both on the ground and through the air, and Seattle's QB Geno Smith should have success against a Detroit secondary that is giving up over 216 passing yards per game. 

4% PLAY ON THE OVER. 

5% BUF/BAL AFC GAME OF THE MONTH MAX BET

This looks like a great spot to fade the 3-0 Buffalo Bills as they face a Baltimore Ravens team eager to build on its first win of the season. Winning four straight is tough, even for a team like the Bills, and they don't match up well against Baltimore's run-heavy game plan. 

5% PLAY ON THE RAVENS. 

5% NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH MAX BET

The Chicago Bears have struggled offensively in recent weeks, but their defense has kept games relatively close. The Los Angeles Rams could be in a potential flat spot after their come-from-behind win over the 49ers, and they're dealing with key injuries on offense.

5% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Colorado Buffaloes are coming off a 38-31 win over Baylor and have scored 30+ points in two of their four games on the season.

Meanwhile, UCF has racked up 137 points across their last three games. They're averaging over 375 rushing yards per game and should find success against a Colorado defense allowing 4.0 yards per carry (73rd).

While UCF has been solid against the run, they've struggled against the pass, and they'll be tested by Colorado QB Deion Sanders, who's averaging 335 passing yards per game.

This is a classic strength vs. weakness matchup, favoring both offenses, and I fully expect this game to go over the posted total.

5% PLAY ON THE OVER. 

5% CFB GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

This looks like a good spot to back the Kansas State Wildcats to bounce back from a 38-9 loss as a 7.5-point favorite at BYU. The Wildcats had opened the season 3-0, and this week they'll face an Oklahoma State Cowboys team that also is coming off its first setback, a 22-19 loss to Utah.

With the sting of last week's upset loss and home-field advantage, I expect Kansas State to be the team that bounces back.

5% PLAY ON KANSAS STATE. 

4% COWBOYS/GIANTS T.N.F. TOP PLAY

The Dallas Cowboys are 1-2 on the season following back-to-back home losses to New Orleans and Cleveland, and while I think they'll get the win here in Week 4, I think it'll be in a close game.

The New York Giants opened the season with a 28-6 home loss to Minnesota, but have since split two one-score road games (at Washington and Cleveland). They got whipped by the Cowboys in both meetings last season, but this week they're catching Dallas at a good time. 

4% PLAY ON THE GIANTS. 

4% COMMANDERS/BENGALS NFL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The Cincinnati Bengals can’t afford another loss after starting the season 0-2. Despite last week's 26-25 defeat at Kansas City, there were plenty of positives in a game they could’ve—and arguably should’ve—won. I expect a focused Bengals team in Week 3. The Washington Commanders are coming off a 21-18 win over the Giants, but coming off a win I think they’ll struggle to match the home team’s motivation in this game.

4% PLAY ON THE BENGALS. 

5% INTERCONFERENCE NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH MAX BET

The Carolina Panthers have struggled mightily on offense, and this week they'll be making a change at quarterback, moving from 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young to veteran Andy Dalton. However, based on Dalton's recent seasons, it's unclear how much of an upgrade that will be.

The Las Vegas Raiders are capable of moving the ball, particularly through the air, but the Panthers have shown they can defend the pass effectively, allowing just 7.5 yards per attempt.

5% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% INTERCONFERENCE NFL GAME OF THE MONTH MAX BET

This looks like a good spot to fade the Green Bay Packers after their 16-10 upset win over the Indianapolis Colts. While they were able to play around backup QB Malik Willis last week and focus on the run, that won't work against this Titans defense, and starting QB Jordan Love has been practicing with a brace on his left leg and is still questionable.

The Titans, coming off two 24-17 losses as four-point underdogs, need a win, and I believe they’ll get it and cover as favorites here in Week 3.

5% PLAY ON THE TITANS. 

5% CFB GAME OF THE MONTH MAX BET

I like the undefeated Michigan State Spartans as an underdog against Boston College this Saturday. MSU already pulled off a road upset against Maryland, and their defense has been solid, allowing just 242.3 yards per game.

The Spartans are coming off a comfortable win over Prairie View A&M, while the Eagles had a hard-fought game against Missouri last week. Though Boston College has had a week to recover, fatigue could still be a factor after that tough battle.

5% PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE. 

5% CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH MAX BET

The Houston Cougars are 3-0 to the under for the season. They have scored a total of just 52 points, but they've looked great on the defensive side of the ball and held opponents two 238.7 yards per game (11th). Offensively, they've looked more mediocre, and injuries doesn't help their case.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off back-to-back unders, and I think this will be a relatively low-scoring affair. 

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

4% PATS/JETS T.N.F. TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The New York Jets' defense has underperformed compared to projections, but this could be a good opportunity to bounce back against a New England Patriots team averaging a paltry 4.8 yards per play. The Pats rely heavily on their rushing attack to move the ball, which, even when successful, drains a lot of clock. 

The Patriots' defense has looked solid, as expected. Through the first two weeks of the season, they have allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (16.5). They've struggled somewhat against the pass, but Aaron Rodgers has yet to surpass 200 passing yards with the Jets.

I'll gladly take the under in this feisty Thursday night rivalry game.

4% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% NFC GAME OF THE MONTH MAX BET

I like the LA Rams to bounce back this week after an overtime loss in Detroit. Matthew Stafford threw for 317 yards, and now he’ll face an Arizona defense that might be the worst in the NFL.

The Cardinals scored 28 points in their Week 1 matchup with the Bills but gave up 34 in the loss.

I believe the Rams have the edge on both sides of the ball, and they’ve dominated the Cardinals in recent seasons.

5% PLAY ON THE RAMS. 

5% AFC GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Tennessee Titans went into halftime of their Week 1 matchup against the Bears in Chicago with a 17-3 lead, only to be outscored 21-0 in the second half.

Now, in their first home game of the season, I expect a solid full-game performance from the Titans against a Jets team that was outplayed by the Niners on Monday night. Not only are the Jets playing on a short week, but they’re also on the road for the second straight week. Tough spot against a scrappy opponent, and I would not be surprised if the home team wins this one outright. 

5% PLAY ON THE TITANS. 

5% NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Green Bay Packers opened the season with a 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil.

Jordan Love suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee late in the game and is expected to miss this Week 2 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. Malik Willis is expected to start under center instead for the Packers, and while he's made three NFL starts, note that Willis did not throw for 100 yards in any of those games.

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a 29-27 loss against the Houston Texans, but I expect a lower-scoring and short game today as both teams are likely to rely on their running game to move the football. 

5% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are off to a 1-1 start, despite holding their opponents to no more than 16 points per game. This upcoming contest marks their first road game of the season, and their offensive performance has historically dipped when playing away from home.

The Sam Houston State Bearkats, who recently transitioned to the FBS level, began their season with an impressive 34-14 victory over Rice, followed by a 45-14 loss to UCF, who dominated with their rushing attack.

The Bearkats have been strong against the pass, and I believe they match up well against Hawaii. They should be able to contain the Rainbow Warriors’ passing game.

5% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% CFB GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The No. 6 Missouri Tigers have outscored their first two opponents 89-0, and I think they'll continue their dominance with another blowout win over Boston College in Week 3.

The Eagles are also 2-0, including a meriting 28-13 win at Florida State in Week 1, but they rely very much on their rushing attack, which is not ideal when playing from behind, and Mizzou has the firepower to pull away fast and early in this one. 

5% PLAY ON MISSOURI. 

4% BILLS/DOLPHINS T.N.F. TOP PLAY

Both teams won but failed to cover the spread in their opening game of the season, but I was more impressed with Miami's win over Jacksonville in which Tua Tagovailoa put up 338 passing yards, the most of all NFL quarterbacks in Week 1.

Bills' QB Josh Allen meanwhile got banged up in their 36-28 home win over Arizona. Allen threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more, and is pretty much their whole offense. 

4% PLAY ON THE DOLPHINS. 

4% JETS/NINERS M.N.F. TOP PLAY

One must wonder how Jets veteran QB Aaron Rodgers will perform in his first start in over a year and a half, after going down with a season-ending Achilles injury in the opening series of last season. He certainly could have hoped for an easier opponent to make his comeback against, but the Jets also have one of the best defensive units in the NFL, which makes me think this will be a low-scoring game.

4% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The game features two of the league's top defenses, and the Browns will be without key players, including running back Nick Chubb. Cleveland's quarterback Deshaun Watson has yet to return to his previous form, and offensive chemistry may be an issue early in the season. 

5% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% CFB GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Tennessee Volunteers were, as expected, extremely dominant on both sides of the ball in their 69-3 win over Chattanooga last week.

The NC State Wolfpack, meanwhile, could not get separation from Western Carolina Catamounts until late in the fourth quarter of their season opener, and they were sloppy with the ball in their hands. The Wolfpack had one turnover and three recovered fumbles.

That won't do it against a quality team like Tennessee. 

5% PLAY ON THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS. 

5% CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Texas Longhorns opened the season with a shutout win over the Colorado State Rams while the Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 30-10 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs. 

I was particularly impressed with the Longhorns defense, which held Colorado State's QB to just 10-of-18 passing for 59 yards, and the Wolverines defense looked sharp as well. I think this will be a low-scoring affair. 

5% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% PACKERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Philadelphia Eagles are listed as the home team, but they'll have no home-field advantage as this game will take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil. 

The Green Bay Packers, and especially QB Jordan Love, finished last season on a high note, and Philadelphia’s secondary was one of the worst in the league last season. 

Additionally, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is usually money against the spread as an underdog. 

5% PLAY ON THE PACKERS. 

4% RAVENS/CHIEFS TNF TOP PLAY

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is never getting enough credit, IMO, and the Ravens will, as always, be run-heavy with their dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson and especially now with the addition of Derrick Henry in the backfield. Additionally, early-season scores tend to be low as offenses work out the kinks with fresh faces and new schemes. 

The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 17-10 in the AFC title game last season and I think this will be another low-scoring game. 

4% PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5% CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH MAX BET

The Virginia Tech Hokies return several key pieces from an offense that averaged 29.5 points per game (45th) last season, including quarterback Kyron Drones, who threw 17 touchdowns while also running for 818 yards and five touchdowns. The Vanderbilt Commodores averaged a more modest 20.6 (104th), but they should improve this season with a new offensive coordinator and two new quarterbacks. 

I expect the Hokies to score the majority of the points against possibly one of the worst defenses in the country, but I'd rather take the over than VA Tech to cover, as I think Vanderbilt will put up a fair amount as well. 

5% PLAY ON THE OVER. 

5% CFB GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The North Dakota State Bison return 27 seniors, including their quarterback duo of Cam Miller and Cole Payton and a strong defense. The Colorado Buffaloes return their star QB Shedeur Sanders, bute they'll have a lot of new faces on other positions. I think North Dakota State can keep this within the number.

5% PLAY ON NORTH DAKOTA STATE. 

5% CFB GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Florida State Seminoles were perfect 13-0 last season, before losing big to Georgia in the Orange Bowl. The Georgia Yellow Jackets finished the 6-6 and and followed it up by defeating UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. 

The Seminoles have been quite active in the transfer portal, and they are coming into this season with a new quarterback running the offense. They might need some time to get all new faces to work together while we know what we'll get from the Yellow Jackets who return all key pieces from one of the nation's best rushing attacks.

I think the Yellow Jackets will be able to exploit an FSU defense that were just 61st against the run last season. 

5% PLAY ON GEORGIA TECH. 

MIKE'S NINERS/CHIEFS SIDE TOP PLAY

I've backed the Chiefs for profits in every game through the postseason, and I think they're undervalued by the betting market once again here in the Super Bowl. Their defense is so underrated, and combine that with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and you have a team that should not be an underdog to anyone. 

In addition to backing the Chiefs, I also like the under as I think the defenses will dominate the game.

4* PLAY ON THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. 

MAX BET ALERT: 5* NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL OF THE YEAR

The Detroit Lions are coming off a 31-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they are 12-7 to the over on the season. Sure, here they'll face a much better defense, but even so, the Niners D has not been quite as dominant as in previous seasons.

Detroit has a lot more upside with the ball in their hands than on defense, and I like the over in this game even with this total which is on the higher side, especially for a playoff game.  

5* PLAY ON THE OVER. 

MAX BET ALERT: 5* AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR

I think it's an absolute no-brainer to take the points on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. They were not quite as dominant as we've gotten used to during the regular season, but have as expected stepped up their game again in the postseason. 

Much respect for the season Baltimore has put together, but don't sleep on the Chiefs who have all the playoff experience you could ask for, much unlike the Ravens... 

Since the start of the 2018 season, the Chiefs are 8-1-1 ATS as underdogs with Mahomes on the field.   

5* PLAY ON THE CHIEFS. 

MAX BET ALERT - 5* BUCS/LIONS NFL DIV ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR

I find it absolutely ridiculous that the Detroit Lions are asked to cover just under a touchdown against this Tampa Bay team that demolished the Eagles in the Wild Card round. The Lions meanwhile were outgained by almost 100 yards in their 24-23 win over the Rams. 

Sure, you're never as good as your best game and never as bad as your worst, but I am more than happy to take the points on the Bucs in this game.

5* PLAY ON THE BUCS. 

MAX BET ALERT - 5* GB/SF DIV PLAYOFFS TOTAL OF THE YEAR

The Green Bay Packers put up 48 points against the Cowboys in Dallas in the Wild Card round, but they'll face a much tougher defense here against the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Playoffs. The Niners have the third-best scoring defense in the NFL holding opponents to 17.5 points per game, and I think they'll be able to take an early lead and then start to bleed clock.  

I would lean to the 49ers to cover the spread as long as it's under 10, but I'm worried about the backdoor cover and feel that the under is a much better play. 

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND GAME OF THE YEAR MAX BET

The Philadelphia Eagles finished the regular season 11-6 SU but only 6-8-3 ATS while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS.

I think the Eagles are overvalued by the betting market once again when they visit the Bucs in the Wild Card round on Monday. 

Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

5* PLAY ON THE BUCS.

MIKE'S 5* NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND TOTAL OF THE YEAR MAX BET

Sure, the Dallas Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at AT&T Stadium and the Green Bay Packers have looked much better than expected with Jordan Love as the starting QB, but I think this total is way too high for a postseason game. 

Both teams have played quite well on the defensive side of the ball in recent games and the under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER.

MIKE'S 4* DOLPHINS/CHIEFS NFL TOP PLAY

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a subpar season by their standards, but this is still an experienced team that I expect to start playing up to their potential again here in the playoffs.

There will be a hostile environment and cold weather at Arrowhead, not ideal for the Dolphins who are flying in from South Florida. 

Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff home games. Chiefs are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

4* PLAY ON THE CHIEFS.

MIKE'S 5* CFB NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME MAX BET

The No. 1 and the No. 2 seed will clash in the College Football Playoff national championship game, and I like the underdog to cover the number as I don't think Michigan has much of an edge at all. If any team can open up this Wolverines defense it's Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr., and Michigan could find it difficult to come back if they fall behind. 

5* PLAY ON WASHINGTON. 

MAX BET ALERT: 5* BEARS/PACKERS NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

The Chicago Bears are coming off a 37-17 win over Atlanta. They have scored 27 points or more in three of their last four games, the exception a 17-point outing against a Cleveland Browns team that boasts the best defense in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers have scored 33 points in back-to-back games and 20 points or more in each of their last seven games. 

Over is 12-2 in Packers last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

5* PLAY ON THE OVER.

MIKE'S 4* RAMS/NINERS NFL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

Both teams have already qualified for postseason football, and they've both announced that they'll rest starters. This will add more variance, making the underdog even more attractive from a betting perspective and the Rams typically match up very well against the Niners. 

Additionally, while the Niners are coming off a 27-10 rout of Washington, note that the 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

4* PLAY ON THE RAMS. 

MIKE'S 4* TEXANS/COLTS NFL TOTAL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The Indianapolis Colts are 11-5 to the over while the Houston Texans are 10-6 to the under. 

The Colts won 31-20 when they clashed with Houston back in September, but I think this will be a much lower-scoring affair as I expect both teams to be relatively conservative as they're playing for the AFC South title. 

Houston rookie QB CJ Stroud has been stealing most of the headlines from the rest of the team (and deservedly so), but the Texans defense has been sneaky good.

The Texans limited the Titans to three points last week; the under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 9-3 in Texans last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

4* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MAX BET ALERT: 5* STEELERS/RAVENS NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

I love the Baltimore Ravens as an underdog against Pittsburgh this Saturday.

Sure, the Ravens have announced that they'll rest players as they are already locked in as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they're all professionals and John Harbaugh always coaches to win.

Harbaugh can't even stand the idea of losing a pre-season game, so why would he lay down here against a hated AFC North rival?

5* PLAY ON THE RAVENS. 

MIKE'S 5* TEXAS/WASHINGTON CFB PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR

I like the Washington Huskies as an underdog against Texas in the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year's Day. Both teams boast explosive offenses and are also similar in many other ways. I'm happy to take the points in a matchup between two evenly matched sides. 

5* PLAY ON WASHINGTON. 

MAX BET ALERT: 5* PACKERS/VIKINGS NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings are in the hunt for a wild card, and both teams have found their groove when on the ball. The Packers have scored 20 points or more in six straight games and the Vikes have proven to be surprisingly competitive with Nick Mullens under center. 

The over is 7-1 in Vikings last 8 games in December and 4-0 in Packers last 4 games in December.

5* PLAY ON THE OVER.

MAX BET ALERT: 5* LIONS/COWBOYS NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

This looks like a great spot to back the Dallas Cowboys to bounce back from back-to-back road losses at Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys have been destroying teams home at AT&T Stadium and here they'll face a Detroit team that clinched the NFC North last week. 

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

5* PLAY ON THE COWBOYS.

MIKE'S 4* DUKE'S MAYO BOWL CFB TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

I'm not sure how motivated the North Carolina Tar Heels will be to participate in Duke's Mayo Bowl. They had their sights set higher than this, and they've been hit hard by opt outs, including star quarterback Drake Maye. The West Virginia Mountaineers on the other hand couldn't be happier to be here and I think they'll get the win and cover.   

4* PLAY ON WEST VIRGINIA. 

MIKE'S 4* GUARANTEED RATE BOWL BOOKIE BREAKER

I like the UNLV Rebels to cover the spread against Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday.

UNLV has been undervalued by the oddsmakers and bettors all season, going 10-3 ATS while covering the spread by an average of 7.3 points.

The Rebels lost some momentum down the stretch but I have no doubt they'll show up again here in their first bowl appearance since the 2013 season. 

4* PLAY ON UNLV. 

MIKE'S 4* RAVENS/NINERS NFL XMAS DAY TOP PLAY

The San Francisco 49ers have been steamrolling their opponents in recent games, but here they'll face a Baltimore team that has been almost equally hot. The Ravens are usually money as underdogs (19-5-3 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog), and I think the Niners will find it difficult to get separation. 

4* PLAY ON THE RAVENS. 

5* MAX BET ALERT: COWBOYS/DOLPHINS NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Both teams are 8-6 to the over on the season, but I think we'll see a low-scoring affair relative to the posted total. While the two teams' offenses usually get the headlines, note that they're both top 6 for total defense. The under is 8-3 in Cowboys last 11 road games and 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

5* MAX BET ALERT: BILLS/CHARGERS AFC GAME OF THE YEAR

This looks like a good spot to back the Los Angeles Chargers to bounce back with a respectable outing after being humiliated by the Raiders in Las Vegas last Thursday. The Buffalo Bills are in a potential flat spot following marquee wins over Kansas City and Dallas. 

The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

5* PLAY ON THE CHARGERS. 

5* MAX BET ALERT: MIKE'S POTATO BOWL CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

The Utah State Aggies closed out the regular season with wins in three of their last four games while the Georgia State Panthers ended the season on a five-game losing streak.

The Aggies will start backup QB Levi William, but he's no stranger to the Potato Bowl after winning the MVP honors while with Wyoming in 2021. 

Georgia State will be without 13 players who have hit the transfer portal, including leading rusher Marcus Carroll and top receiver Robert Lewis. 

5* PLAY ON UTAH STATE. 

MIKE'S 4* SAINTS/RAMS NFL TOTAL TOP PLAY

The New Orleans Saints are 10-4 to the under on the season and they've held their last two opponents to six points each. The Los Angeles Rams have been involved in high-scoring affairs of late, but I think they'll find it difficult to move the ball against this Saints defense. 

The under is 24-8 in Rams last 32 games as a home favorite and 7-0 in Saints last 7 games as a road underdog. The under is 10-2-1 in Saints last 13 Thursday games.

4* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MIKE'S 4* COWBOYS/BILLS NFL SUNDAY TOP PLAY

This looks like a good spot to fade the Dallas Cowboys following five straight wins, including a 33-13 win over their rivals the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Dallas is 10-3 on the season, but only 3-3 on the road. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

The Buffalo Bills are only 7-6 on the season and in second place in the division and will most likely have to win out to catch the first-place Miami Dolphins. Desperation breeds motivation and I think we'll see a hyper-focused Bills team beat Dallas. 

4* PLAY ON THE BUFFALO BILLS. 

MIKE'S 5* BRONCOS/LIONS NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

This looks like a great spot to fade the Denver Broncos who have been playing over their heads lately, winning six of their last seven games outright, with three wins as underdogs.

The Detroit Lions meanwhile are getting no respect following a humiliating 28-13 loss to the Bears in Chicago, but they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

5* PLAY ON THE LIONS. 

MIKE'S 4* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL TOP PLAY

The Chargers will have to do without injured starting QB Justin Herbert for the rest of the season, but I think the rest of the team will rally behind QB Easton Stick who will make his first NFL start despite five seasons with the team.

The Raiders have QB issues of their own as they've averaged just 11.5 points over their last four games with rookie Aidan O'Connell quarterbacking the team. We might see Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for Vegas here, but I still think the Chargers can keep this close. 

The Chargers are 40-18-4 ATS in their last 62 games as a road underdog and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Raiders are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 5-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

4* PLAY ON THE CHARGERS. 

MIKE'S 4* PACKERS/GIANTS NFL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The New York Giants are 9-3 to the under on the season. They are averaging a miserable 13.2 points per game (31st) and an NFL-worst 258.7 yards of total offense per game. The Packers have scored 23, 29, and 27 points through a three-game winning streak, but note that the under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 Monday night games and 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-1-1 in Giants last 9 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

4* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* SEAHAWKS/NINERS NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

This looks like a potential flat spot for the San Francisco 49ers who are riding a four-game winning streak and defeated the Eagles 42-19 in Philadelphia last week.

I would not be surprised if they struggle to bring full focus for this game, especially after winning 31-13 in Seattle on Nov 23, and even if they do, this is a lot of points to cover. 

The Niners have all but clinched the division while Seattle's season is on the line.

5* PLAY ON THE SEAHAWKS.  

MIKE'S 5* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR MAX BET

The Detroit Lions are averaging 27.2 points per game overall, but that number drops a bit when they're playing on the road. The Bears rank 2nd in total defense home at Soldier Field with an average of only 261.6 yards allowed per game. 

The Chicago Bears offense has been anemic all season, and they've been held to 17 points or fewer in four of their last five games. 

Detroit won the first meeting of the season 31-26 back on Nov 19, but I think we'll see a lower-scoring game this time around. 

The under is 9-3 in Lions last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in Lions last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. 

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* NINERS/EAGLES NFL GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Philadelphia Eagles will play an elite opponent for a fourth straight game following wins over Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo. Now they'll run into a San Francisco team that has answered a three-game losing streak with three wins.

I think the Eagles are due for a letdown game, and you can't play anything but your absolute best to keep up with this Niners team. 

The 49ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The 49ers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. NFC. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

5* PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. 

MIKE'S 5* COLTS/TITANS NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH MAX BET

The Tennessee Titans have scored more than 17 points in only one of their last seven games.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has come around following a poor start to the year and has held opponents to 13, 6, and 20 points through their last three games.

Offensively, the Colts will be without the 2021 NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor who underwent thumb surgery earlier this week. 

The under is 6-0 in Colts' last 6 games as a road favorite and 31-14 in their last 45 games in December.

The under is 18-6 in Titans' last 24 home games and, 6-2 in Titans last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and 6-2 in Titans last 8 games in December.

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR

The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss as a home favorite against Kentucky, their second loss for the season.

The Florida State Seminioles are undefeated 12-0, but they have to rely on backup QB Tate Rodemaker who completed only 12-of-25 passes for 134 yards in last week's 24-15 win at Florida.

FSU might have to lean on their running game here, but note that Louisville is holding opponents to 96.8 rushing yards per game (12th) and 3.3 yards per carry (15th). 

5* PLAY ON LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. 

MIKE'S 5* BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL OF THE YEAR

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are averaging 30.2 points per game and while Texas is holding opponents to 325.3 yards per game (27th), they are much better at stopping the run than the pass.

Okie State has a well-balanced offense that ranks 50th on the ground and 40th through the air, and Texas has injuries on the defensive side of ball. 

As for the Cowboys' defense, there are holes to exploit and they've given up 30+ points in consecutive games, both as favorites, and now they're coming up against one of the best teams in the nation.

I would not be surprised if both teams put up 30+ points in this game, and I love the over. 

5* PLAY ON OVER. 

MIKE'S 4* SEAHAWKS/COWBOYS NFL TOP PLAY OF THE DAY

The Dallas Cowboys have won three straight games in blowout fashion since a 28-23 loss to the Eagles in Philly on Nov 15.

Since then, they've defeated the Giants 49-17, the Panthers 33-10, and most recently the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving. Tonight they'll face a Seattle team that took a 31-13 loss to the Niners at home last Sunday.

There's no need to overthink this. Give me the scorching hot Cowboys on extra rest. 

4* PLAY ON DALLAS COWBOYS. 

MIKE'S 5* M.N.F. TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Minnesota Vikings are 8-3 to the under on the season and the under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

The Chicago Bears had scored 13, 17 and 16 points in their past three games before putting up 26 points in a loss at Detroit last week. They looked a lot better with Justin Fields back under center, but this is still a bad Bears offense and the Vikes are allowing only 320.6 yards per game (12th).

The Bears have more success running the ball than throwing, but stopping the run is the Vikes strength on D, so this is an unfavorable matchup for Chicago. 

As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins is done for the year, and star wideout Justin Jefferson has been dealing with a hamstring injury. He's been reported as "unlikely to play", and I fully expect him to sit as their bye week is coming up. There's no reason for them to gamble and not let Jefferson heal up completely. 

The Vikings won 19-13 when these two teams clashed in Chicago back in October. I would not be surprised if we see a similar scoreline tonight. 

5* PLAY ON THE UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* BILLS/EAGLES NFL GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Buffalo Bills can not be too pleased about their 6-5 record, but they're coming off a 32-6 win over the Jets and I think everyone would agree that they are a better team than their record would suggest. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a potential letdown spot after defeating the Chiefs at Arrowhead Monday night. They're riding a four-game winning streak which includes marquee wins over Miami, Dallas, and the aforementioned Kansas City, but it's really difficult to sustain that level of play extended amount of time, even for a top team. They're due to come out flat eventually, and I'll gladly take the points on the Bills in this game. 

The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game and 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.

5* PLAY ON BUFFALO BILLS.

MIKE'S 5* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR MAX BET

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-2 to the under while the Las Vegas Raiders are 9-2 to the under.

The Chiefs offense has not looked right lately, with only 9, 21, and 17 points scored through their last three games and they've been held to 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games.

The Raiders have scored 16 and 13 points, against the Jets and the Dolphins respectively, in their last two games, and here they'll face a truly elite defense in the Chiefs. 

5* PLAY ON UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* CLEMSON/SOUTH CAROLINA CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

The Clemson Tigers have had a disappointing season but they've stepped up their game again in recent weeks, coming off convincing wins over Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are also riding a three-game winning streak, but I don't see how they can keep up with the Tigers the way they're playing right now. Gamecocks QB Spencer Rattler has been playing well, but this Clemson defense is a huge step up in competition compared to what he's faced lately. 

This is also a revenge game for Clemson after a 31-30 home loss to their rival in the last meeting on November 26, 2022. 

5* PLAY ON CLEMSON TIGERS. 

MIKE'S 5* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

The Virginia Tech Hokies are 7-4 to the over while the Virginia Cavaliers are 8-2-1 to the over.

Virginia has allowed 27 points or more in each of its last five games while the Hokies have allowed 34+ points in two of their last three games.

The Cavaliers rush defense is among the worst in the nation and Virginia Tech is averaging a solid 168.7 rushing yards per game. 

5* PLAY ON OVER. 

MIKE'S 5* PACKERS/LIONS NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Green Bay Packers are coming off an upset win over the Chargers, but I think they'll lose big here in Detroit on Thanksgiving.

The Packers are far from healthy, and they'll face a Lions team that is on a roll with seven wins while going 6-2 ATS in its last eight games, including a 34-20 win at Lambeau Field back in late September.

The Lions did not cover in last week's 31-26 win over the Bears but note that the Lions are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.

5* PLAY ON DETROIT LIONS. 

MIKE'S 4* EAGLES/CHIEFS M.N.F. TOTAL TOP PLAY

I've said it before and I'll say it again; the Kansas City Chiefs' defense just might be one of the most underrated units in the NFL. That might seem like a weird statement about a team that just won the Super Bowl, but they rarely get the headlines despite ranking 4th in total defense while allowing only 15.9 points per game which ranks 2nd in the NFL.

The Chiefs are 7-2 to the under on the season and since the beginning of last season, they are 9-4 to the under against teams with a win percentage of 50% or more.

The Eagles' offense is flying high, but I think the Chiefs will dictate the tempo of this game and make it a low-scoring affair.  

4* PLAY ON UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

I think the Los Angeles Rams are due for a strong outing here following their bye week and back-to-back road losses at Dallas and Pittsburgh.

In their last game (on Nov 5), the Rams took a 20-3 loss at Lambeau Field, but they should be able to put more points on the board here as QB Matthew Stafford is expected to be back on the field after missing the last game due to injury. If Stafford can't go, the Rams now have a more than capable backup in Carson Wentz.

The Seahawks are allowing 283.3 passing yards per game (22nd), so this looks like a favorable matchup for the Rams. The Seahawks are 3-1 SU in their last four games but 0-4-1 ATS in their last five. 

5* PLAY ON THE RAMS. 

MIKE'S 5* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK MAX BET

The Arizona Cardinals picked up their second win of the season when they defeated Atlanta 25-23 last week.

That was QB Kyler Murray's first game since suffering an ACL injury in December last year, and we should see a more effective Arizona offense now in the second half of the season. 

The Houston Texans are coming off a 30-27 win at Cincinnati and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud keeps impressing under center. I think this will be a shootout as I expect solid play from both quarterbacks while both teams rank in the bottom third for total defense. 

5* PLAY ON THE OVER. 

MIKE'S 5* UCF/TEXAS TECH CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

The UCF Knights (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) will visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) Saturday. The Red Raiders are a short home favorite, and I like them to get the cover. 

UCF is in a potential flat spot following a 45-3 rout as a short underdog against Oklahoma State. Texas Tech is also coming off an upset, a last-minute field goal 16-13 win as a 3.5-point underdog at Kansas, but they had to stay sharp throughout the game. 

UCF has the superior offense, but Texas Tech has a capable offense as well and its defense looked really good against the Jayhawks. I'll back the better defense in this matchup. 

5* PLAY ON TEXAS TECH.

MIKE'S 5* BENGALS/RAVENS NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a 30-27 loss to Houston, but that did not come as a surprise to me who predicted that they would have a letdown game following four straight wins SU and ATS.

I expect the Bengals to come out fully focused again for this divisional matchup against Baltimore who also saw a four-game winning streak end last week, with a 33-31 loss to Cleveland.

These are two very evenly matched teams in my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see this game come down to a last-drive field goal. Let's take the points on the underdog. 

5* PLAY ON CINCINNATI BENGALS. 

MIKE'S 4* WEDNESDAY NIGHT CFB PLAY OF THE DAY

The Bobcats (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 win in Buffalo while CMU took a 38-28 loss on the road at Western Michigan in its last game. 

I like the Central Michigan Chippewas (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) to get the cover as an underdog in Ohio Wednesday night.

While the Bobcats are superior on both sides of the ball, they're quite limited on offense if quarterback Kurtis Rourke is not on his game.

CMU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games which makes them very unattractive in the eyes of the casual bettor, but that's where we as sharp bettors can find value. 

4* PLAY ON CENTRAL MICHIGAN. 

MIKE'S 4* BRONCOS/BILLS MNF BEST BET

The primetime games are an incredible 24-7 to the under for the season, and I think this total is set way to high to not take advantage of. 

Sure, the Broncos rank dead last in total defense with 405.9 yards and 28.2 points allowed per game for the season, but they're coming off their bye week, so they'll have fresh legs and they've kept three straight opponents under 20 points. 

The Bills have not looked quite right in recent weeks, averaging a mediocre 20.2 points per game through their last five games. 

4* PLAY ON UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR MAX BET

This looks like a great spot to back the under, as I expect max effort from Dallas' defense after giving up 28 points in a loss in Philadelphia last week. 

The first meeting of the season ended with a 40-0 Cowboys win at MetLife Stadium, and that was with Daniel Jones under center for the Giants. Now they'll have rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL ... 

The only risk of this losing is if the Cowboys decide to run up the score, but even so, they might need to score 38+ points themselves for us to lose. I would not be as tempted to back the Cowboys on the spread though, as they might feel comfortable just shutting down after going up by a couple of scores. 

5* PLAY ON UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK MAX BET

This looks like a good spot to fade the Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) following five straight wins straight up and against the spread. They won four of those games as underdogs, and it's so difficult to play at that level for multiple games in a row. In their last game, they upset Oklahoma 27-24 while the UCF Knights (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) snapped a five-game skid with a 28-26 win in Cincinnati last week. I'll take the points. 

5* PLAY ON UCF KNIGHTS. 

5* MAX BET: MIKE'S PANTHERS/BEARS NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

The Carolina Panthers are 5-3 to the under on the season and they were held to only 13 points and 275 yards of total offense in a loss to the Colts last week. That was against an Indianapolis team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball all season long, and here they'll face a Bears defense that ranks 19th in total defense and has been great at stopping the run.

As for Chicago's offense it has much like Carolina, struggled to move the ball for most of the season and the Bears have put up a total of only 30 points through their last two games. This is a low total, but I still like the under as I don't see either team being able to run up the score. 

5* PLAY ON UNDER. 

MIKE'S 5* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

The Los Angeles Rams are 5-3 to the under for the season, and starting QB Matthew Stafford is unlikely to play here due to an injured right thumb. Brett Rypien is the Rams backup QB, which is a huge step down in class and the Rams do not have much of a run game to lean on.

As for the Packers, they've struggled to move the ball all season long averaging only 287.0 yards of total offense. Over their last three games, the Packers have scored 13, 17 and 10 points.

This feels like a 20-17 win for either team. 

5* PLAY ON UNDER. 

5* MAX BET: MIKE'S DOLPHINS/CHIEFS NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

This looks like a fantastic spot to back the Kansas City Chiefs to bounce back from a humbling 24-9 loss at Denver. They had won six consecutive games before that setback, and here they'll get the opportunity to showcase their talent to a whole new crowd at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany.

The Miami Dolphins are 6-2 straight up and against the spread, but they were completely outmatched the two times they faced quality opponents in Buffalo and Philadelphia.

The Chiefs are the reigning champs, and still the team to beat IMO.

Since the start of last season, the Chiefs are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS off a straight up loss. 

5* PLAY ON KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. 

5* BEST BET: MIKE'S CAL/OREGON CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

This looks like a good spot to fade the Oregon Ducks who are 7-1 straight up and against the spread. The betting market will adjust, and here they're in a potential letdown spot after routing the Utes in Utah 35-6 as a 6.5-point favorite last week. 

The California Golden Bears put up a season-high 49 points in a tight loss as a 10-point underdog to USC last week. They're only 3-5 SU and ATS, but I think they can have success with their run-game against the Ducks, which will also shorten the game and make taking the points even more attractive.

5* PLAY ON CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. 

5* GAME OF THE YEAR - MIKE'S BENGALS/NINERS NFL BEST BET

The San Francisco 49ers have hit a bit of a slump, coming off back-to-back road losses at Cleveland and Minnesota. QB Brock Purdy is doubtful and missed practice on Wednesday while in the NFL's concussion protocol. There's a significant drop off to backup QB Sam Darnold, and here the Niners will face a Bengals team that is coming off its bye week and has played a lot better as Joe Burrows is getting close to full health. I have the Niners as the better team, but the spot favors Cincy, and we're spotted more than a field goal. 

5* PLAY ON CINCINNATI BENGALS. 

MIKE'S 5* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR MAX BET

NC State is 4-3 SU but only 1-5-1 ATS on the season, but I think we'll see max effort from the Wolfpack here as they're coming off their bye.

The Wolfpack took a 24-3 beating at Duke in their last game, but at least they're coming into this game well-rested after a week off, unlike Clemson who will be on the road for a second straight week after a double-overtime loss at Miami-Florida last weekend.

Much like the Wolfpack, the Tigers have struggled against the spread as they're heading into the weekend 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS. 

5* PLAY ON NC STATE WOLFPACK. 

5* BEST BET: MIKE'S CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH

The over/under is 7-1 in Massachusetts' eight games this season and 4-3 in Army's seven games.

The Minutemen will have fresh legs coming off their bye week, and they'll be eager to get back on the scoreboard after getting shut out in a brutal 63-0 loss at Penn State two weeks ago.

Believe it or not, but Army is in even worse shape after getting shut out in back-to-back games(!) against Troy and LSU. This looks like a good spot for Army's running game to get going again against a UMass defense that is allowing 223.4 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. 

No one expects a lot of points, but I think we'll see floodgates open here following the score-draught. 

5* PLAY ON OVER. 

4* TOP PLAY: MIKE'S NINERS/VIKINGS NFL PLAY OF THE DAY

The Vikings are 5-1 to the under on the season and through their last three games, they've scored 21 points at Carolina, 20 points against KC and 19 points at Chicago. You really would have expected them to put up bigger numbers against teams like the Panthers and the Bears, and now they'll face one of the best defenses in the league.

Defensively, the Vikes have been decent as well, and they're good at stopping the run, which should come in handy against a team like San Francisco. I like the Niners to jump out to an early lead and then start bleeding the clock to shorten the game. 

4* PLAY ON UNDER. 

4* TOP PLAY: MIKE'S CHARGERS/CHIEFS NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the season, but this is a team that usually struggles to cover.

Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Chargers are 10-4 ATS as an underdog last three seasons.

The Chargers are 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the season and that is one reason why the betting market is undervaluing the Chargers in this spot. 

4* PLAY ON LOS ANGELES CHARGERS. 

5* BEST BET: MIKE'S NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

The Cleveland Browns have scored a total of only 22 points through their last two games. They managed to defeat the Niners 19-17 last week despite the absence of starting quarterback Deshaun Watson who is expected to get the start here, but is he really 100% fit? 

Whether we see Watson on the field or not, I expect the Colts' defense to bring the heat here after giving up 37 points to Jacksonville last week. 

As for Cleveland's defense, it ranks No.1 for several key metrics and should not have any issues to contain Colts backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. 

5* PLAY ON UNDER. 

5* BEST BET: MIKE'S BAYLOR/CINCINNATI CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

The Cincinnati Bearcats will be looking to end an ugly 0-4 SU and ATS skid. They lost 30-10 as a 3.5-point home favorite against Iowa State last week, but I think they'll have more success here against a Baylor team that took a 39-14 loss to Texas Tech before heading into their bye week.

Cincinnati is averaging only 26.7 points per game (81st), but it ranks 29th with 444.0 yards of total offense per game and 17th with 202.7 rushing yards per game, so it should only be a matter of time before they start putting more points on the board.

The Bears have struggled to stop the run all season and I expect to see the Bearcats bounce back with a big outing here after struggling against Iowa State's defense. 

5* PLAY ON CINCINNATI BEARCATS. 

4* TOP PLAY - COWBOYS/CHARGERS M.N.F. BOOKIE BREAKER

The Chargers have one of the best QBs in the league in Justin Herbert, but they do not pose much of a threat on the ground and here they'll run into one of the best pass defenses in the league. I also expect the Dallas defense to come out extra motivated after giving up 42 points to the Niners last week.

While the Chargers will come out fresh from their bye, I think Dallas will do its best to slow down the pace, and offensively, the Cowboys have mustered a total of only 26 points through its last two road games. 

On the season on the season, Monday and Thursday games are a combined 9-4 to the under and all games with a closing total of 50 or higher are 5-2 to the under.

4* PLAY ON UNDER. 

4* TOP PLAY - MIKE'S COLTS/JAGS GAME OF THE WEEK

The Jacksonville Jaguars return home from two weeks across the pond and off an upset win over the Bills. The travel could become an issue for Jacksonville against a Colts team that has won three of its last four games outright. Gardner Minshew will quarterback Indianapolis, but I'm not sure he's that much of a downgrade from injured Anthony Richardson.

Over the last three seasons, the Colts are 14-10 ATS as an underdog while the Jags are 3-7 ATS as favorites (0-4 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 7 points). 

4* PLAY ON INDIANAPOLIS COLTS. 

4* TOP PLAY - FAU/USF CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

The Florida Atlantic Owls are 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the season, 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS on the road. The USF Bulls are 3-3 SU and ATS, 2-1 SU and ATS at home.

I like South Florida to bounce back from a disappointing 56-35 loss to the UAB Blazers. 

The Bulls can hold their own when on the ball, and while their defense has been an issue, here they'll face an FIU team that has scored 10, 14, 17 and 20 points through its last four games. 

FAU is coming off a 20-17 win over Tulsa. Over the last three seasons, FAU is 1-6 ATS off a win against a conference rivals. The Bulls are 9-4 ATS off a loss to a conference rival. 

4* PLAY ON SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. 

4* TOP PLAY - MIKE'S GEORGIA/VANDERBILT TOTAL OF THE WEEK

The Vanderbilt Commodores are 6-0-1 to the over on the season, and I expect to see another high-scoring affair when they host Georgia Saturday afternoon. 

The Bulldogs are as per usual boasting one of the best defenses in the nation, but Vandy QB Ken Seals has thrown for 539 yards, four touchdowns, and one INT while starting the Commodores' past two games instead of AJ Swann who could not stop turning the ball over, and despite Swann's struggles, the team ranks 37th on the season with 274.4 passing yards per game. 

As for the Bulldog's offense, they rank 8th for total offense and they have the 10th best scoring offense in the nation averaging 40.7 points per game. They just put up 51 points on Kentucky, and here they'll face a Vandy defense that ranks  12th in the SEC in pass-efficiency defense. 

4* PLAY ON OVER. 

5* BEST BET - Mike's Broncos/Chiefs NFL Total of the Month

The Broncos' defense is almost historically bad so this could get ugly in a hurry, but I still like the under as KC can go into time management mode and churn clock with long drives after jumping out to a big lead. The Broncos have looked decent when on the ball in recent weeks, but here they'll face a Chiefs defense that may not get a lot of headlines, but certainly can hold its own.

Since the start of last season, Chiefs games with a total closing at 50 points or higher are 11-4 to the under. 

5* play on UNDER. 

Mike's 4* Packers/Raiders M.N.F. Total BEST BET

'The 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders will be looking to end a three-game skid, and I like them to get the W here against a 2-2 Green Bay team that has had mixed results.

Vegas expects to get starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo back from a concussion and running back Josh Jacobs should finally wake up here against a Packers defense that allows 155.2 rushing yards per game.

Don't get me wrong; the Raiders are not a good team, but they match up fairly well against Green Bay and they get a chance to end a three-game slide in just their second home game of the season. 

I like the under even more though. Green Bay ranks 29th in total offense and 24th in yards per play. Vegas ranks 28th in total offense and 22nd in yards per play. Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in any games this season, but its defense ranks around average. The over/under is 1-3 in Vegas' games this season. 

4* play on UNDER. 

4* BIG BET - Mike's Chiefs/Vikings NFL Total of the Week

The Minnesota Vikings are 3-1-1 to the under on the season as they average only 22.5 points per game (25th) despite averaging 370.8 yards per game (9th) and 6.4 yards per play (3rd).

Untimely turnovers have cost them, but I think we'll see a locked-in Vikes offense here against a KC defense that might not be quite as good as the numbers would suggest. KC is allowing only 15.0 points per game, but its last three opponents have been Jacksonville, Chicago, and the NY Jets.

As for the Chiefs offense, you never have to worry about them putting up points.

I expect to see this one go over the total. 

4* play on OVER. 

4* TOP PLAY - Mike's Ravens/Steelers NFL Game of the Week

This looks like a great spot to back the Steelers to bounce back from a disappointing 30-6 loss as a 3-point favorite at Houston. The Steelers are not good as favorites, but Mike Tomlin knows how to get his squad fired up as underdogs, especially when it comes to divisional games. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Steelers are 6-3 ATS as underdogs against division opponents. 

The Ravens meanwhile are in a potential flat spot following a 28-3 rout of the Browns in Cleveland. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Ravens are 9-17 ATS as favorites and 1-4 ATS off a win against a divisional rival. 

4* play on the Steelers. 

4* BIG BET - Mike's Washington State/UCLA CFB Game of the Week

The Washington State Cougars are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS while UCLA is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS.

UCLA opened the season with three straight wins but took a 14-7 loss at Utah two weeks ago before heading into its bye week. Washington State is also coming off its bye after winning 38-35 win against then-No. 14 Oregon State on Sept. 23.

Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward has been one of the best QBs in the nation, averaging 348.5 yards per game and coming into this week with 13 TDs against 0 INTs.

Over the last three seasons, the Cougars are 8-3 ATS on the road and 14-5 ATS against conference opponents. 

4* play on Washington State. 

5* BEST BET - Mike's Oklahoma/Texas Total of the Month

The Texas Longhorns are 4-1 to the under on the season. They've allowed more than 14 points in only one game, and that was a in their 34-24 win at Alabama in Week 2. Oklahoma has held its opponents to 0, 11, 17, 6 and 20 points. The Sooners have the No. 3 scoring offense in the nation, but this will be their first game against a ranked opponent. Both teams are capable of putting up big numbers, but I think defense will rule this game. 

5* play on UNDER. 

Mike's 4* Seahawks/Giants MNF TOP PLAY

The Seahawks are coming off back-to-back wins against Detroit and Carolina, but I think they'll come up short here against a Giants team that is finally back home following a pair of road games.

The Giants got shut out by Dallas in a 40-0 loss on primetime in their home opener of the season, which should make them even more amped up for this primetime home game.

There is a chance that Giants RB Saquon Barkley will take the field for the first time of the season, which would be a huge boost for their offense. With or without Barkley though, I expect to see a focused Giants team getting the win. 

4* TOP PLAY on the Giants.