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The Denver Broncos have shown they can win even when they are not at their best. In both week two and week three they got off to slow starts against Jacksonville and the Rams. San Francisco as dominant as they have been to start the season, have not faced any second half adversity. Games were well in hand against the Rams, Dolphins, and Arizona Cardinals last week. Look for Denver even being on the road to continue to showcase being a second half team.

The New York Giants big move this week was releasing Odell Beckham Jr, but they also traded for JJ McCarthy from the Minnesota Vikings. This move could be a move that puts pressure on Jameis Winston, who has generated no touchdowns in his two games of action. Against the Rams and Titans the Giants have scored just six field goals. Arizona had two difficult division games against San Francisco and Seattle, and now should settle in even in a cross country game. Tail the Cardinals.

The Tennessee Volunteers came close last week against the number one team in the country in Texas, losing 20 to 17. I expect a fast start for the Volunteers in another home game, but look for Auburn to be able to find answers as they adapt to their first true road game of the season. Value play on an Auburn team that has lost seven straight games on the road against ranked SEC points by an average margin of 15 points.

Georgia State is 4-0 ATS on the season. Each spread they have covered with ease, including winning outright as more than a touchdown underdog against Kennesaw State. Still, conference play has been a big issue for the Panthers. The last two years they are a combined 1-15 in Sun Belt play. Old Dominion’s defense bounces back after giving up forty six points in last week’s loss against James Madison. Grab the points with the Monarchs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a team that the X factor issues continue to happen. Turnovers and bad decisions from their quarterback in Baker Mayfield. Today should be considered a devalued spot on the Vikings since this is essentially Kyler Murray’s first start, after leaving early against the Packers. Yet, look for the tandem of Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores Jr. to get off to another 3-0 start. Back the Vikings on the short number. 

A team that has consistently lost is hard to back consecutive weeks. For the Cleveland Browns they now have to answer that last week was not a fluke against Tampa Bay. They’ll face a Panthers team coming off the biggest win of week two by thirty one points against the Atlanta Falcons. Yet the last twelve times the Panthers have faced Atlanta they have lost the next matchup. Back the Browns plus the points.

West Virginia is coming off winning as a double digit underdog against Virginia last week. They won the game in both phases with the defense stepping up in the second half. Yet, even with the upset and being undefeated the Mountaineers are just slight favorites today against Oklahoma State. In four matchups since 2021 the home team has lost between West Virginia and Oklahoma State. In a seesaw battle look for that angle to hold for a fifth straight time.

One of the toughest spots for an NFL team to start the year is playing back to back road games. The Washington Commanders are the only team in football that are doing so with consecutive divisional road games. Jayden Daniels stats weren’t pretty week one, but he showed the closing fourth quarter ability he had his rookie year. The Commanders scored thirteen points and were a two point conversion away from tying. Expect a cleaner performance, and for the Commanders defensively to be fired up after giving up a season high forty four points to the Cowboys in Dallas last season. Take Washington.

East Carolina lost their home opener as a favorite last week against Appalachian State. Now for the second straight week the Pirates will face a Sun Belt team as they travel on the road to face Old Dominion. That’s where the value lies on the number as East Carolina lost to a bottom level Appalachian State team, and now see the Monarchs who are second on the odds list to win the Sun Belt. Smaller number, but look for Old Dominion to show a bit of rust off their loss to Virginia Tech. Take East Carolina.

The Cleveland Browns made the questionable decision to start the year with DeShaun Watson as the starting quarterback. The caliber of quarterback we saw years ago with Houston is no more, as he has made just thirteen starts over the prior three seasons. Ironically his only win as a starter since 2024 was on the road at Jacksonville, in an 18 to 13 win. Not calling for an outright win but Jacksonville has had issues scoring in the second half of week one games the prior two seasons. They blew a ten point halftime lead to Miami, where they were shutout in the second half, and last season scored just six second half points against Carolina. Playing the big number here on the Browns side.

Revenge spots are always key early in the season in college football. More times than not you can make money backing the motivated team. Yet, Texas and Ohio State is a different scenario of two powerhouse teams. The Buckeyes showed they can win this matchup with defense in last year’s 14-7 victory. This is that big stage moment for Arch Manning and you have to worry about some of the early season issues of a year ago plaguing him here. A better performance for the Longhorns but the Buckeyes win once again.

The talented Ohio Bobcats team we have seen over the last several seasons, is in a new phase leadership wise as Nick Poulos works his way in as the new starting quarterback. He went just 14 of 31 against Nebraska, but Jacksonville State is a team that has struggled in the early portions of a season. They went 0-3 two years ago, before turning it around and winning Conference USA. They also went 1-2 to begin last season. Look for the early season struggles to continue a third year in a row, where the better talent does not equate on the field. Take Ohio.

The connection of today’s Baylor and Auburn game goes back to last season’s South Florida and Florida matchup. The Bulls upset Florida and DJ Lagway 18-16, and that was the first of 8 losses for the Gators. DJ Lagway is now on Baylor and I expect a better performance against Alex Golesh. Auburn likely wins but does not cover on the hook. Take the points. 

Week one can be as simple as looking for revenge spots on series. Colorado had the game one a year ago against Georgia Tech, and then allowed a late scamper touchdown by Haynes King. The season is likely going to be a down year for Deion and Colorado, but I’ll look for them to hang around against the Yellow Jackets. Simplified play here taking the points on Colorado. 

Strictly a value play tonight on Memphis. UNLV has been excellent over the last two seasons turning around a program that was towards the bottom in the Mountain West. Yet, Dan Mullen had to rebuild once again, and we saw UNLV struggle out the gate last season in which they had a tough time against Idaho State, nearly losing as steep favorites. Grab the small underdog value with Memphis. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their playoff lives on the line could not get a win. They have lost three straight games by a field goal or less. Even with today’s game against the Panthers out of their hands, I believe they will step up after losing seven out of eight. Carolina’s Bryce Young is coming off just a 54 yards passing against Seattle, and on the road has led the offense to an average of just 16 points. Take Tampa Bay.

Sunday night should give us a quality game, as San Francisco looks to continue their win streak as they are 5 and 0 since Brock Purdy returned. Chicago may be dealing with an illness hitting the team, but they are 8-2 ATS over their last ten games. They also have a two day rest advantage from playing last Saturday versus the 49ers playing on Monday. Look for the Bears magical regular season to continue with a cover Sunday night.

The New Orleans Saints have suddenly become one of the more appealing teams ATS this week. They have covered in four out of their last five games, and won consecutive games for the first time this season. Shifting from an underdog to a favorite is certainly worthy against a Jets team that has lost four of five games by double digits.  Yet, this number has jumped to much from the original market number. Take the Jets.

The Denver Broncos have a ten game winning streak, and even better a twelve game home winning streak dating back to last season. Still, weekly it appears they are surviving to get victories and will face a Packers team that’s offense is starting to hit its stride. Under Matt LaFleur since 2019, the Packers are 21-4 in the month of December. Take the Packers.

Kansas City certainly is not a playoff worthy team with their performance this season. With their playoff hopes pretty much dashed, I think we see a pride element on Sunday against a divisional opponent in the LA Chargers. LA is coming off an overtime win against Philadelphia, and the offense is hindered with Justin Herbert playing hurt. Take the Chiefs here.

The Miami Dolphins have won three straight games and one can’t argue their ATS success in the division this season. They covered in both matchups against Buffalo, including an outright win. They got their first win of the season against the Jets on Monday Night Football, and had a break away De’Vone Achane touchdown against the Patriots brought back with a foot out of bounds. Even with that, the Jets have been a bit under valued at home recently. They’ve won each of their last two home games, and the prior two home games their opponent scored just thirteen points. Grab the points here with the Jets.

Earlier in the week I gave the Atlanta Falcons an outside chance to pull off an upset Sunday if Drake London was available. With him out I have opposite views. Yes, Sam Darnold has had issues protecting the football in two out of his last three games. But Atlanta is coming off a bad stinging loss to the New York Jets. It’s the type of loss that takes away the fight on a losing season. Although each of their last four losses have been by six points or less, take Seattle to deliver in a big way.

Ohio State’s dominance this year is in question due to their Big Ten schedule overall. We saw the defense have their issues early on last week against Michigan, where the Wolverines red zone non execution resulted in two field goals. Indiana has been waiting for this moment and I expect a tight finish, where the victory is decided by three points or less. Grab Indiana.

The most common take is how hard it is to beat a team twice. Alabama will try and do so tonight against a Georgia team they defeated by three points in late September. It was a game the defense did bend but did not fold to get the close victory. Long term Alabama’s success over Georgia I believe comes into play as well, even with this not a typical neutral site title game. Take the small underdog here with Alabama.

There is not a more rock bottom moment in the NFL season than the Las Vegas Raiders. Losing in the fashion that they have all season long, but the last two weeks have been brutal. A prime time blowout home loss to the Dallas Cowboys, and then as a favorite blown out by the Browns who were starting Sheduer Sanders for the first time on the season. After the firing of Chip Kelly look for enough wrinkles from the offense to stay in the game against a Chargers team that did not show much before their bye week against the Jaguars. Grab the points with the Raiders.

Two teams that are playing beneath their capabilities will meet as Pittsburgh hosts Buffalo. The Bills have had issues on both sides of the football, which culminated in an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football against the Texans. Look for the Bills and Josh Allen to do a better job getting rid of the football early, and also utilize the short passing game that is giving the Steelers defense problems. Lay the short number with Buffalo. 

A team that can be tough for oddsmakers to assess are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Each of Baker Mayfield’s first two seasons they have hit a wall where they have lost five out of of six games. This year they are falling down that path with three straight losses but the draw for oddsmakers is tough this week. Arizona has had their own injury problems, but they have enough offensively to keep a reeling Buccaneers defense down. Grab the points here with Arizona.

The Atlanta Falcons once were 3-2, have now dropped five straight games. Each of their last three were extremely close calls losing to the Patriots by a point, and consecutive overtime losses. For Kirk Cousins the mentality changes, from a backup spot start to knowing he is going to finish out the season for the Falcons. Both matchups last season against the Saints were decided by a field goal or less. One of Cousins last 300 yard games was at New Orleans last November. Take Atlanta in what should come down to the final drive.

Teams that continue to win the way the Chicago Bears have lose traction by oddsmakers, and make them a trendy play to fade. I’ve been in that boat, but now see things differently. The Bears under Ben Johnson have a formula to stay in games, and now a knack of closing. Pittsburgh is unsettled at the quarterback position with Aaron Rodgers injury, and have run very mediocre offense as of late that is centered around tight end Darnell Washington. Take the Bears to continue to thrive at least for another week. 

The Philadelphia Eagles we’ve seen the extreme red flags with the offense before just two seasons ago. Last week’s defensive win does not mask the ten points the offense put up, which is the fewest under Jalen Hurts in a game he started and finished. Now we are seeing the lowest home spread offering for the Eagles over the last couple of seasons. Take Detroit as the offense continues to find rhythm with Dan Campbell as play caller.

The Chicago Bears have won six out of their last seven games, but needed miraculous come backs the last two weeks to get the job done. Examining their schedule the weak link has been in the division where they are 0-2 on the year. Stretching it back to last season Caleb Williams is 1 and 7 against NFC North opponents. The one win was with the Packers backups in week eighteen. Even though JJ McCarthy is unpolished take the Vikings on the small number.

On the season Georgia Southern has been excellent at home, where they are 3-1 overall. The one loss was against Southern Miss that is 5-0 in conference, and that was by just three points. Still, I don’t believe the market has caught up on a Coastal Carolina team that has ascended with fourth string quarterback Semari Collier as starter. They are 4-0 ATS and SU in his starts. A loss may happen but they hold within the spread.

The Clemson Tigers are trying to salvage a poor season by at least becoming bowl eligible. They are just 3-4 in ACC play, but are coming off allowing just ten points to Florida State. Still, I believe this spread is discrediting the Louisville Cardinal, who are coming off an overtime loss against California. That may lead to a sluggish start early on, but look for Louisville to override those issues. They have been excellent in Friday football where they are 6-1 SU since 2021, including defeating Miami this season.

The Chicago Bears had it as easy as they could last week offensively, against the worst defense in football in the Cincinnati Bengals. Now they have won five out of their last six games, boosting their spread value against a Giants team that is 0-5 on the road.  In the second half of last week’s loss Jaxson Dart showed some confidence and growth in the passing game down the field. Look for that to be an x-factor Sunday, as the Giants hang around against the Bears.

The Carolina Panthers have won four straight games with Bryce Young as quarterback. Last week was the big shocker winning as a double digit underdog on the road against Green Bay. Now they will face a Saints team that is 1-8 on the year, benched Spencer Rattler, and traded away Rasheed Shaheed. Still, look for Tyler Shough to play a bit better than his debut, and for the Panthers to have a back to reality game. Take the Saints.

There’s no doubt the loss of Dylan Raiola is going to impact Nebraska the rest of Big Ten play. Yet, this week is a matchup they can win with proper execution and running the football with Emmett Johnson. Johnson already has 1,000 yards on the season, and the Bruins defense is coming off giving up a season high fifty six points to Indiana. Take Nebraska to get by in their first game without Raiola.

A team that has drastically faded has been Texas State. They were in many eyes a top level team for Sun Belt conference play. They even were in their matchup against Arizona State. Their blowout loss against James Madison showcased how poor they are defensively. UL Lafayette is certainly not their caliber skill wise, but team effort and discipline in the penalty department is the difference here. Take Lafayette plus the points. 

An unheralded matchup presents value in the American Conference. Tulsa is winless at 0-5 in league play, and has just one division one victory on the season. Still, the offense has shown improvement in the last two weeks scoring 27 and 37 points. Both were season highs against division one schools. Look for that improvement to continue to show on the road against Florida Atlantic. Could be another loss overall, but they get the cover ATS.

Playing through injuries can only get you so far. The 49ers fell flat in last week’s loss against the Houston Texans, and now will travel on the road in consecutive weeks to face the Giants. As beat up as they are expect Kyle Shanahan to do his best to keep time of possession in his favor. Mac Jones is also undefeated in his career in MetLife stadium with a 3-0 record, and all wins by five points or more. Take the 49ers in what might be the sloppiest game of the day. 

The New England Patriots are tied with the Denver Broncos for the best win streak in the NFL at five games. The win streak featured all covers ATS by the Patriots, which I believe has finally forced the oddsmakers to adjust aggressively on New England. Keep in mind New England had a rigorous three game road trip, before returning home last week. Sometimes it’s the second home game that a team has their slip up moments, which we have seen from New England against the Raiders and Steelers. Take the Falcons plus the points after two poor showings against the 49ers 

The Cincinnati Bengals are beat up offensively with quarterback Joe Flacco, and have the worst defense in yards and points per game. A defense that allowed the winless Jets to mount a double digit comeback win last week. Still, this is a game they have to have similar to Baltimore a week ago against this Bears team. Chicago without De’Andre Swift is going to put more of a focus on Caleb Williams to make plays. Take the Bengals plus the points.

It’s obvious that John Matter returned from injury at not one hundred percent. Over the Sooners last three games they have lost to Texas and Ole Miss, but it’s also allowed Matter to play and work through the injury. Expect a sharper performance from him tonight and for Tennessee to need to adjust from their typical octane offense that averages forty six points per game. Close game with the Sooners sneaking within the number.

The Florida Gators began the season as a ranked team, that quickly faded and led to the firing of Billy Napier. Billy Gonzales will now step in and look to get the Gators bowl eligible with five gams left. Even though Georgia is 6-1, they have shown vulnerability with several close wins. Take the Gators be the latest to hang around against the Bulldogs, and stay within the touchdown spread.

Transitioning to division one football is tough for any program. For Delaware they hit a wall after their bye week, lost a tough game against Western Kentucky and then were blown out by Jacksonville State. This is a spot I expect to be a very tight game against Liberty, where at the worst we push on the three points. Competitive close game here grab the underdog.

We see it all the time when a team survives to remain undefeated like UNLV, all it takes is that one loss to shift the tide entirely. UNLV was fortunate early in the season against Idaho State, Air Force, UCLA, and Miami Ohio to survive close victories. After last week’s blowout loss against Boise State look for the shift to occur, against a New Mexico team that makes opportune plays. Take the points here with the Lobos.

Two teams that have lost four straight games meet tonight in the ACC as Syracuse hosts North Carolina. North Carolina nearly pulled off two upsets in a row as a double digit underdog, but lost narrowly to California and Virginia. The offense just has not been enough with Gio Lopez under center as he has thrown for just two touchdowns and four interceptions against division one schools. Take the Orange here on the short number.

Prime time has been very tricky this season, but I look for the Packers to get the road win against Pittsburgh. With Mike Tomlin’s Steelers we’ve seen the hot starts but also the wall that causes an extreme reverse in losses. Green Bay has had a heavy road schedule as this will be their fourth road game over their last five, but what they have been able to do is win. Low enough spread here that I’ll buy on the Packers side.

The Buffalo Bills have killed backers ATS this season, and even with that their number remains high on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Expect Josh Allen to settle back in off the bye week and also for the defense to perform better after getting gashed by the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Andy Dalton has shown to be serviceable backup but now has to step in and play with pressure as the Panthers have won three straight. Take the value on the Bills.

Sunday we have a matchup of prime time eyes just last week. Houston laid an egg in Monday Night football, while San Francisco shined creating a prime time inflation spot on the 49ers. Some teams struggle post bye week and that was the case for the Houston Texans. The offense assuredly may continue to struggle without key weapons at wide receiver including Nico Collins. Yet, I believe the Texans defense rises to the occasion winning the turnover battle and making things difficult for the 49ers. Take the Texans.

The MAC has been a conference I’ve stayed clear of thus far this season. Today though I believe there is an opportunity in a battle of undefeated conference MAC teams, as Western Michigan takes on Miami Ohio. Seventh year senior DeQuan Finn has done his most damage in conference with his legs, but we’ve also seen his rushing yards come down each of the last three weeks. Look for Western Michigan to force Finn more into a pocket passer where he has struggled with touchdowns to interceptions. Take Western Michigan.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have a lost season, but have an opportunity to take a game to game approach to close out the year. California we’ve seen have the upper hand with teams venturing their way, but it’s been an issue for them to travel East. They got down 14-0 against Boston College, and I think we see another big early deficit from the Bears. Take the Hokies to get the cover

A year ago the Green Bay Packers blew out the Arizona Cardinals as a short three point favorite at home. Now they are more then double the favorite on the road, after failing to cover their last two games against Cincinnati and Dallas. Expect the Packers to overwhelm a Cardinals team that has been fighting but losing as of late. Packers roll in this afternoon game in Glendale, Arizona. 

The Miami Dolphins have shown fight since Darren Waller got his first action in week four against the New York Jets. Miami had leads late before losing by three points to Carolina, and two points to the Chargers. Sunday could be the complete bottom spot for Miami against a Browns team that is now settled in after playing in Europe two weeks ago. Tail the home favorite here in Cleveland.

The Philadelphia Eagles just two weeks ago had a 20-1 streak going. Now they head into their road game against the Vikings having lost consecutive games. It’s a similar down turn we saw at the tail end of the 2023 season when the Eagles went 1 and 7 over their final eight games. Look for the Eagles to get in their own way, as the Vikings do just enough to get the home cover.

Bad teams can turn the corner in-conference. Last week Colorado State had an impressive showing defeating Fresno State 49-21. Now they are favored Saturday with a chance to win consecutive games for the first time this year. Look for their new found confidence to slow down a Hawaii offense that has peaked with consecutive games of forty four points. Tail the Rams.

Nebraska did not play their best game last Saturday in a road win against Maryland. It was their first true road game of the season, but the Cornhuskers prevailed thanks to a late touchdown. Expect a much more fluid game for the Cornhuskers and quarterback Dylan Raiola who threw three interceptions against the Terrapins. Lay the touchdown here with Nebraska.

From a coaching and player stand point there is not a team in the NFL that has to answer with an urgent performance Sunday more than the Raiders. They have been torched defensively over the last three weeks giving up an average of 35 points, and Geno Smith has thrown nine interceptions. It’s the right opponent in the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a fortunate win over the Cardinals. Lay the number with the Raiders.

It’s always tricky when a team is on the road in the east coast time zone in consecutive weeks. Yet, this Dallas Cowboys team was sparked by an embarrassing road loss against the Chicago Bears. Carolina may be 2-0 at home as an underdog, but defied the odds last week against Miami with a 200 yard game from Rico Dowdle. They also converted two improbable fourth downs. Take the Cowboys as Bruce Young has shown throughout his young career to not be trustworthy in consecutive weeks.

A year ago the Arizona Wildcats were the laughing stock of the Big 12. One of their most embarrassing losses came at the hands of BYU in a 41-19 loss. Fifita threw a collegiate high three interceptions, and the season for Arizona fell apart after that. Look for Fifita and the Wildcats to showcase their improvements against a BYU team that has yet to see their freshmen quarterback put in a tough spot. Tail the Wildcats.

A game that will have a low attention in the betting markets is Louisiana Monroe against Coastal Carolina. Both starting quarterbacks in Tad Hudson and Aidan Armenta are ranked in the bottom twelve in the entire country for average passing yards per game. That means capitalizing on turnovers will be the main factor in a team victory. That’s an area Coastal Carolina has been dreadful, as they rank the third worst team in college football in turnover margin. Expect the outlier plays to benefit the road team in Louisiana Monroe.

Alabama has regained the focus of the betting market with a couple of big wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The defense limited both teams to a combined seven points in the second half. Yet, a road element and early start time I believe has Alabama chasing from behind against this potent Missouri team. The Tigers are also in a revenge spot after losing 34-0 last season against Alabama. Grab the points here with Missouri. 

I’m going to grab South Florida tonight against North Texas. I truly believe if North Texas did not have the bye week advantage that South Florida would be favored. The Mean Green are led by freshmen in quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. Mestemaker has not thrown an interception on the season, and Hawkins is seventh in college football averaging over seven yards a carry. Expect the freshmen growing pains to show tonight as North Texas has already had a couple of close calls needing to win in overtime against Western Michigan and Army. Take South Florida. 

The LA Chargers fell from the undefeated ranks last week, but it was in the making. They were very flat in the second half of their Monday night win over the Raiders, and were outplayed by Denver even though they got the win. Look for the Washington Commanders with Jayden Daniels back to have enough to offset their injuries. Take Washington.

Spencer Rattler has yet to get a win in his career as he is 0-10. Yet, he has had the Saints in position in several games this year, and now New Orleans returns home after a two game road trip. Over the Saints last ten games their only win was against the Giants. An x-factor is new Coach Kellen Moore as he is 6-0 in his last six games against the Giants as a play caller with the Eagles and Cowboys. Take the Saints.

The Miami Dolphins picked up an important win on Monday against a winless New York Jets team. They utilized having the extra rest advantage over New York. Now they have to travel on the road and face a Carolina team eager to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week against the Patriots. Take Carolina where the Panthers only home game this year was a shutout 30-0 win.

Rice on the season does have two more wins than their opponent Florida Atlantic. Yet their two wins against division one schools they have struggled to score. Look for Western Kentucky transfer Caden Veltkamp to finally settle in and avoid the turnovers that have plagued him with seven interceptions on the season. Take Florida Atlantic as the small underdog. 

UNLV and Wyoming are both coming off a bye week in what is the conference opener in the Mountain West for both. UNLV on the season is undefeated but nothing has come easy as they barely beat both Idaho State and had to come from behind against Miami Ohio. Wyoming has also been a tricky place for the Rebels who have lost five straight matchups there, and last victory was 2003. Look for that to end tonight, as the Rebels offense solidifies an ATS cover.

A big rest advantage could be a factor at some point tonight as Delaware hosts Western Kentucky. The Blue Hens are in their first year in Conference USA and their last matchup was thirteen days ago against Florida International. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky played just six days ago in what was a hard fought win against Missouri State. The Hilltoppers also were one of the few teams that played in week zero, with tonight marking their sixth game of the season. Lay the short number here with Delaware.

Sometimes a bad loss can spark a team. Green Bay got content late up 10 to 0 on the Cleveland Browns, and had a poor game offensively in all phases. Josh Jacobs did not establish the ground game, the offensive line allowed five sacks, and Jordan Love threw a costly late interception. With all of that they have a dominant history against Dallas, and have won five straight games overall in Dallas. Take the Packers as they surge past the Cowboys.

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting healthier with the return of Xavier Worthy, but the lack of a ground game is still there. Baltimore ran into a Detroit team playing peak football on Monday night, look for the Ravens to use that as fuel to clean up issues on both sides of the football. It’s also a value angle seeing the Chiefs for the second time this season as a home underdog. Grab the Ravens.

The New York Giants are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night football, and will now turn to Jaxson Dart at quarterback. The Giants had six players upgraded from questionable giving the offense a boost, and the Chargers are one of the more road heavy teams to begin the year. They played in Brazil, Vegas, and now make the cross country flight to New York. Grab the big points here with the Giants.

The New England Patriots had one of the worst self destruction games a team can have last week against the Steelers. They turned the football over five times, and did not get the necessary stop defensively with the game tied at 14. Carolina for a second straight week has covered the spread, but in a non divisional game I expect more of what we saw for a full game against Jacksonville and three quarters against the Cardinals. Lay the number with New England.

San Jose State twice on the year have failed in the betting markets as double digit favorites, losing outright to Central Michigan and barely beating Idaho last week by a field goal. Heading on the road to face Stanford is a spot I believe senior quarterback Walker Eget can shake off a poor start to the season and get some confidence. They’ll need the scoring to keep pace with their troublesome defense. Take the small dog here with the Spartans.

The Oregon Ducks have shown time and time again as a trustworthy team ATS. in the regular season. The big question is will that merit hold with an inexperienced quarterback in Dante Moore on the road at Penn State. As a team I believe they overcome any issues he has early on. Additionally, Penn State coming off a bye week may be the factor that keeps the Ducks in the game early on, as the offense stumbles. Take the Ducks in what may be a close loss but cover for Oregon.

Conference USA has been a conference we have seen accept new division one teams. Missouri State is the latest and has been reputable ATS where they had a 10-0 lead on SMU, and have a win over Marshall. Western Kentucky to me is a team that has performed sluggish over the last couple of games but managed to overcome that and cover a big number last week against Nevada. Expect a crisper performance today for the Hilltoppers as they cover the number.

One thing about a bad loss is you expect a team to come out with high energy early on. Auburn I’m expecting to have the early lead against Texas A&M, and maybe even the lead at halftime. To keep up with Texas A&M for four quarters is where I have my concerns. Take the Aggies as the Tigers lose once again close to the number late.

For Arizona State it’s always a sweat in their games under Kenny Dillingham. We saw them get by in countless games last season to reach the college football playoffs, and already this season they have had two close games against Mississippi State and Baylor. TCU has slid into the top twenty five thanks to their hot start, but look for the physicality of Arizona State to present its challenges. Also, rain in the early afternoon in Tempe will make it an abnormal humid evening with temperatures in the high 80s. Take Arizona State to pull off another close win.

One of the toughest elements for a team is starting the year on the road consecutive games. The 49ers had to do so, and despite covering the number as favorites find themselves as slim home favorites Sunday. Arizona swept the series last year, and can play the same clock management game that Kyle Shanahan is well known for. This comes down to the wire, but grab the Cardinals to execute in the end.

The New Orlean Saints have lived right on the number in their first two games against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. That captures the betting market, and is an opportune spot for me as the big let down occurs. Spencer Rattler still is winless in his career with an 0-8 mark, and Seattle has the tools on both sides of the football to make this a pull away game in the second half. Take the Seahawks.

The Denver Broncos were a non penalty away from securing a tough win at Indianapolis. Instead they went to 1-1, but expect that loss to drive the team to prove themselves early against the LA Chargers. Bo Nix and Sean Payton found their offensive rhythm, and you also have the ex-factor of JK Dobbins facing his old team. Take the Broncos plus the points.

Teams having back to back road games early in the season can devalue them ATS. For the Rams they have that on a small number, against an Eagles team that has won eleven straight home games. The revenge angle is also in play after the Rams cost themselves a trip to the NFC Championship game with two fourth quarter fumbles, and failed on their final drive that got all the way to the Eagles thirteen. Take the Rams in what is the fourth meeting over the last three years. 

Hawaii will get their freshmen quarterback back tonight with Alejandro. That can be an advantage as their is only the game film out from the Stanford matchup with him. Meanwhile Fresno State’s senior quarterback EJ Warner has not thrown a touchdown pass against a division one opponent, and has struggled with turnovers as well. Take Hawaii to continue their magic at home as the underdog. 

Last season the big knock on Indiana was their soft schedule, as they did not face a ranked opponent until late in the season on the road against Ohio State. Look for the Hoosiers to be ready to show the country, they can handle a ranked team early in the season as they take on Illinois. The Hoosiers have never lost at home under Coach Curt Cignetti, and have won eleven straight games at Memorial Stadium. Lay the number with the Hoosiers.

A game that is likely to draw little attention is Marshall against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee very well should be an 0-3 team, but pulled out a late miracle in last week’s win against Nevada. I believe that has minimized what this spread would of been on Marshall’s side, who lost a majority of their team to Southern Miss. The fourth game in look for the traction to gain against a Middle Tennessee team that lacks explosive plays. Take Marshall.

The Utah Utes have to answer the call in Saturday’s matchup against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have the top offense in all of college football, but have not faced a true test. Coach Kyle Whittingham and the Utes must avoid another early season let down as they have the last two years losing to Arizona and Oregon State early in the season. Take the Utes to get their first Big 12 home win in program history and cover the number.

With Iowa we always know it’s not going to pretty. Their brand of football is not going to change and we saw this in keeping the game manageable and low scoring against Iowa State. As great as Rutgers explosive offense has been, conference play is a different level of evaluation. Rutgers also was shutout the last time these two met in 2023. Take Iowa on the spread. 

Small home favorites off a poor week one I’m willing to buy. For the Houston Texans they are once again dealing with key injuries offensively, with Joe Mixon out at running back. CJ Stroud needs to find his confidence and do so quickly though the air. Look for the small wins as the Texans play solid defense, win special teams, and the big key is have the advantage in the turnover battle. Take the Texans on the spread.

The Chicago Bears collapsed in a prime time spot on Monday, and now have to show resolve in a six day turn around against the Lions. Close game losses typically resulted in blowouts last season for the Bears in the following game. Look for the culture change under Ben Johnson to have an impact at least in terms of the spread. Chicago has had short term success against the Lions as well, in three out of the last four matchups they have either won or lost by five points or fewer. Grab the points here.

Sometimes the betting market is a week early on a team. Last week Duke faltered in a tough spot against the ranked Illini. Now travel on the road to play their quarterback’s old team in Tulane. Expect Darian Mensah’s teammates to raise their game for their quarterback, and bounce back in a big way over Tulane. Take the underdog in Duke.

Travel destinations are becoming less and less of an impact for spread evaluation as conference play begins for some. Out in the Mountain West Nevada gets to face a team traveling on a lengthy road trip in Middle Tennessee. As I said in last week’s write up with Washington State gaining a slim victory over Idaho, there is value to be had on team’s that get by against a non division one school. Expect Nevada to play a more fluid game after defeating Sacramento State by just three points. Lay the spread in a rare high number spot for a Wolf Pack team that is 6 and 31 over their last thirty seven games.

The Colorado Buffaloes made a surprise move at quarterback by moving to Ryan Staubb. I do like the move, but Staubb is in a tough spot on a short week traveling on the road in a confernece game against Houston. The Cougars have taken steps forward under Coach Willie Fritz, and now are in an unusual spot favored against Colorado. Non typical of what we have seen in the past, that presents value on the number. An issue under Deion Sanders teams has been mismanaging games in the fourth. Look for that to be the difference ATS. Take Houston.

Sometimes a key number is all it takes to get a cover in the NFL. Jacksonville was a team last year that wins and losses were so close. Nine of their losses were by five points or less. Carolina has a young roster that showed flashes of success last season. I’m expecting a tight game where we possibly see a walk off field goal for the win. Grab the points here with Carolina.

We have seen two divisional underdogs start the season off with covers. Washington as sizeable favorites will see a different level New York Giants team. Still, I anticipate the Commanders playing at the Giants level for the first half, before making the key plays to get past the number. The NFL is always outlier plays, and we saw this last year with Malik Nabers dropping a key fourth down ball, and an abundance of costly plays. Take the Commanders on the spread.

A narrative to go against in college football off of week one, is a team that struggled against a non division one school. We have that scenario with Washington State that struggled to get past Idaho last week. The old saying a win is a win helps us get a reduced number this week against San Diego State. Take the Cougars who get the right opponent to start the year off 2-0 on the season.

UCLA showed nothing on defense or offense in week one against Utah to make them a road favorite against UNLV. Nico Iamaleava probably has the most pressure of any quarterback in week two to respond. Expect UNLV’s potent offense to put Iamaleava in situations he did not have to be in at Tennessee. Close game but the Rebels prevail to go 3-0 on the year. 

There are games that serve as an eye opener and catapult a team in the spotlight. For Oklahoma this is their chance against a Michigan team, that is ahead of where I anticipated in their first game against New Mexico. Yet, this is a different caliber opponent in Oklahoma which I believe can manage this game from a trailing game script or by putting the pressure on the Wolverines with early scoring. Take Oklahoma who will win this decisively by ten or more points.

Virginia had one of the more impressive victories last week by routing Coastal Carolina 48 to 7. The blowout featured the defense shutting down former ACC and Big Ten quarterback MJ Morris. Offensively Chandler Morris showed how valuable he is as a sixth year senior at quarterback. Still, NC State has the advantage of having last week off and I expect their to be cleaner execution in both halves than what we saw against East Carolina. Take NC State on the small number.

The LA Chargers were in both games last season against the Kansas City Chiefs. They lost after having a 10-0 Sunday night prime time lead, and also had another close loss late in the season. The Chiefs dynasty is far from over, but winning at the rate they did last season is not sustainable. Look for the Chargers to do what Dallas did against Philadelphia, and hang around a divisional opener to begin the season. Take LA plus the points. 

One of the teams that is expected to take a leap this season are the Washington Huskies. We saw some of the flashes last season with quarterback Desmond Williams Jr., and they still have senior tailback Jonah Coleman. Colorado State has lost three straight openers by twenty six points or more. Tail the Huskies to make it four seasons in a row.

Moving on from an era of consistent injuries at quarterback has happened with the Utah Utes. Devon Dampier was one of the more electric quarterbacks last season at New Mexico, and now goes into a system where he has a big upgrade in talent around him. UCLA was one of the slowest offenses out the gate last season, where they scored sixteen points or less in their first five games. Look for a shaky debut from Nico Iamaleava as Utah gets by with a win of six point or more.