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Toronto (726)

In sports often times we see the same occurrence. A team lets a golden opportunity slip and eventually pays for it.

Indiana may have won game six on their home floor but in my opinion the series was lost in game five. That was a game they handily were ahead in and botched the fourth quarter entirely.

Toronto may not be playing their best basketball but they're in a game seven position on their home floor.

There's a reason low seeds don't advance to often. Toronto rides their home crowd and finds away to get into the second round. Take the Raptors.

Indiana (712)

Value lies with the Pacers on Friday in a crucial game six at home. 

We all know the meltdown that occurred in the fourth quarter, but Indiana has completely dominated seven of the last eight quarters of the series.

Keep in mind at home Toronto was a juggernaut all season long as a fourth quarter team that rivaled the Warriors.

Surely if Indiana had won game five, they'd be a minimum 3.5 point favorites Friday.

I expect them to ride the need to win and get back to the defensive strengths they've showcased the past two games.

This series heads gets decided in seven games. Grab the Pacers.

Miami Heat (576)

The Hornets have made things interesting winning two games on their home floor. Yet all I believe that's done is create ATS value on the Heat the rest of the way.

Miami showcased in games one and two what they're capable of when they hone in defensively.

For whatever reason on the road they could not match that same level of intensity as guards Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker carved them up.

Quietly though they've bottled up the Hornets interior. In game four alone the Hornets Marvin Williams, Al Jefferson, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky, and Cody Zeller shot a combined nine for twenty eight from the field.

Look for the Heat to get the ebb and flow offense back at home and for the Hornets to suffer to sustain offense as a result.

Indiana Pacers (569)

Indiana is coming off their best offensive output in terms of field goal percentage as they shot 47.1% in game four. In fact, the Raptors never crawled within double-digits in game four after trailing 28-16 at the end of the first quarter.

This series is now the best of three, and I see it even getting tighter than what we've seen.

With that in mind I think you have to toss out the Raptors superb 32-9 home record in the regular season. 

Grab the value of the Pacers who have rotated their dialed in defense on the Raptors first unit and rolled it to the Raptors second unit as well.

Portland (566)

I find it odd that this line has gained in value on the Trailblazers off of game three. 

In game three the Trailblazers were just two point underdogs and now find themselves as 3.5 point underdogs.

The Clippers do have the better starting five but still are missing the ebb and flow you need on the road.

Keep in mind Blake Griffin is still getting acclimated after three and a half months off.

The bench has been sporadic and JJ Redick is coming off a poor performance in game three.

Portland has confidence and it's not just with their lethal guards in McCollum and Lillard. Mason Plumlee had a dominating game three in the interior with 21 rebounds and nine assists. 

Grab the value on Portland and look for the Blazers to play even better than game three tonight.

Charlotte (562)

Even though the Hornets will be without Batum I still see value in the Hornets.

Sometimes a team can catch too much attention ATS with their first two home games.

Frankly that looks to be the case with the Miami Heat who throttled the Hornets on their home floor in games one and two.

Yet to win a series you need to showcase that capability with four wins not just two.

I have strong concerns with how the Heat looked in game three and the confidence they gave a Hornets team that is underrated offensively.

During the regular season they scored 103.4 points per game.

They have a skill set most playoff teams can't boast with two big men that can stretch the floor in Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky.

They're also getting great play from Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson off the bench.

The Hornets just lacked the energy in games one and two needed to pull off road wins.

Look for this series to draw even in become a series destined for seven games.

Portland Trailblazers (552)

Saturday's lone play comes in the night cap between the Portland Trailblazers and LA Clippers.

Many thought the Trailblazers would give the Clippers difficulties to start the series in LA. That has not been the case as the Clippers offense has overwhelmed the Trailblazers along with cold shooting from Portland.

Yet, a series can change with a team's ability to defend their home court.

LA has seemingly been unchallenged since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup. In fact disregarding the final regular season game in which the starters sat out for rest, the Clippers have won eight consecutive games with Griffin in the lineup.

Grab Portland to get back in the series and defend their home floor as they've played far below their capabilities in LA.

Boston Celtics (542)

The Celtics offense has no where to go but up after another horrific offensive display in game two.

In fact, Isiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Marcus Smart combined to shoot just six for thirty-five from the field.

Things got so bad that Brad Stevens inserted rookies Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter in extended minutes of playing time.

Rozier's twenty-four minutes were a season high and Hunter's the highest since December 26th.

Certainly the Celtics offensive woes are troublesome but lets not be blindsided by one game.

They overcame the same problems in game one to take a lead against the Hawks, and played well enough defensively in game two to make the game manageable.

Atlanta is an untrustworthy team on the road and I believe the Celtics will get enough done to support backing Friday.

Detroit Pistons (540)

The eighth seed Detroit Pistons have given the Cavaliers two strong efforts and still came up short.

In Wednesday's loss the Cavaliers went nuts from three point range draining twenty attempts on thirty eight shots.

Igniting the spark from downtown was JR Smith who scored all seven of his baskets from three point range.

Yet, I like how the Pistons fought in the fourth quarter to fight close to the ten point closing line.

A key take away from the first two games is the fact that the Pistons have controlled the interior. Cavaliers Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov have combined to score two points along with seven rebounds in the first two games.

This is a short span from Wednesday's game two and I expect the Pistons to showcase the same energy they've brought forth in games one and two. 

Don't expect the Cavaliers to stay red-hot from three. Grab the value on the Pistons.

Houston Rockets (538)

To me the Golden State Warriors may be a bit too cocky at this point. Even Coach Steve Kerr lamented that the depth of the Warriors is good enough to win without Stephen Curry.

The fact of the matter is without Curry the Warriors scoring needs two to three guys to fill the void. 

That's a lot to be asked against a Rockets team that can score in bunches.

How will the Warriors react to a 40 point quarter from the Rockets?

I expect to see one game of solid four quarters of effort from the Rockets, and we'll get that today.

Too much is at stake with the media harping on Rockets players Dwight Howard and James Harden. I also believe the Rockets role players are more than capable of providing proper balance in a do or die game three.

Grab the value on the Rockets Thursday.

Toronto (535)

There's a lot of people swaying from the Raptors to Pacers to take this series.

Look for that to reverse after game three.

In an NBA series things can change vastly from game to game. I like the tweaks Coach Duane Casey made in game two by replacing Norman Powell from the starting lineup but still giving him starters minutes.

It ignited the Raptors offense out the gate. Even though the offense tapered when Powell was inserted in the first half, in the second half he aided in the pull away run. 

Defensively I also believe the Raptors are gaining ground on the Pacers. Indiana's limited behind the capabilities of Paul George. Veteran Monta Ellis shows flashes but is no longer a viable second-scoring option. Young players in Myles Turner and Solomon Hill are streaky role players which leaves Indiana vulnerable.

While Indiana may get out to a fast start, the Raptors depth will be too much for the Pacers.

This is a baiting line that will get many. Don't fall for it. Grab the Raptors.

Boston (523)

Celtics Coach Brad Stevens hopes that his Celtics squad has figured out the conundrum of being down steep deficits.

In their latest games they've been down steep deficits to the Hornets, Miami Heat, and in game one against Atlanta.

In-game adjustments led to the Celtics storming back in game one against the Hawks and their regular season finale come back to defeat the Heat.

This is now the sixth matchup of the season between the Celtics and Hawks. Oddsmakers have continued to value the Hawks dominance of 4 wins to the Celtics 1 and I believe that's the wrong angle here.

Boston did lose Avery Bradley to a hamstring injury and are a bit banged up with Marcus Smart/Kelly Olynk.

Yet, the Hawks struggles to produce points at the two-guard position is troublesome. Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder, and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot a combined 1 for 18 in game one.

Look for the Celtics to reverse their track of being down early and continue to frustrate the perimeter offense of the Hawks.

Grab the value on the underdog here.

Toronto Raptors (518)

It's been blowout city to start the NBA playoffs. One game that wasn't was between the Pacers and Raptors, as Indiana upset Toronto.

Paul George simply took over in game one with 33 points on twelve of twenty-two shooting. Meanwhile the Raptors stars in Demar Derozan and Kyle Lowry both shot abysmal from the floor.

That of course is not atypical of a Raptors team especially on their home floor. On the season they've had an impressive 32-9 record.

Monday, expect the need for a win combined with their home floor advantage to over power the seventh seed Pacers.

The reason the Pacers are a seventh seed is because of their continual inconsistencies. All season long they followed up wins with dud performances. 

Grab Toronto on Monday.

506 Atlanta

To start the NBA playoffs we'll look at the Atlanta Hawks in what is expected to be a long series against the Celtics.

I don't believe that will be the case as the Hawks dominated the Celtics in three regular season wins.

Defensively the Celtics gave up 116 points a game in those three losses which is well beyond their season average of allowing 102.5.

Even though both teams are 48-34, the depth advantage lies squarely with the Hawks. 

Keep in mind this is the same team that won sixty games a season ago, and returns the same core group of talent.

Boston has bench production issues with Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynk, and David Lee. Fourth quarters have been detrimental to the Celtics as in those three losses they've been outscored by nine or more points to the tune of 103-68.

Grab the Hawks to set the tone game one against the Celtics.

Boston (718)

The Boston Celtics have a chance to create chaos in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding with a win at home today against the Heat.

Of course they could have been in better position if not for an embarrassing home loss on Monday against the Charlotte Hornets.

In the defeat the Celtics looked like the team in a back to back scenario and not the Hornets. 

Yet, with two days of rest I believe the Celtics can take advantage of a Heat team that's played four games in six days.

One key to being in Vegas is the ability to watch multiple games every night. Harkening back to Boston's February 27th twelve point victory over the Heat, I'll use several key take aways for tonight's play.

In the win the Celtics played lethargic for three quarters and the start of the fourth quarter. You could say the Celtics were playing Miami Heat style of basketball as the Heat led by eight at the end of the first quarter and the game was tied at 82 with seven minutes remaining.

The Celtics finished the final seven minutes on a 19-7 run against a Heat team that wore down.

Look for the same recipe today as the Celtics should bounce back in solid fashion ATS.

Memphis (509)

Down the stretch of the season the majority of playoff teams are getting discussed except one…..Memphis.

Rightfully so as they are in poor shape minus key veterans in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.

To make matters worse Tony Allen is nursing a hamstring injury and his status is unknown for Tuesday.

Still I love the value of the Grizzlies being an after thought as the playoffs near. Lets not forget the Clippers are getting acclimated to Blake Griffin back in the lineup which is skewing the ATS number a tad Tuesday.

Since returning to the lineup he is averaging ten points, six rebounds, and four assists a game. 

Yet, team camaraderie is not one hundred percent. They caught the Wizards on the back end of a five game road trip, consecutive games against the Lakers, and survived match ups against the Mavericks and Jazz.

Look for the Grizzlies hunger to shine Tuesday, as they force the Clippers rotation into tough shots by playing their game. Grab the Grizzlies.

Indiana (502)

Tuesday, the Indiana Pacers will look to grab their third win of the season over the New York Knicks. 

The Knicks have been disastrous post All Star break with a record of 9-17, but have played the Pacers tight in both match ups this season.

In Indiana they lost by three points and recently at home on April 3rd by five points. Yet, I've been waiting for the Pacers to hit another gear and it appears they're at that mark before the playoffs begin.

Their veteran trio of George Hill, Paul George, and Monta Ellis have been steady the majority of the season, but where there overall improvement lies ATS for Tuesday's matchup is their depth.

Rodney Stuckey and CJ Miles are now healthy. Also off the bench is key production with Solomon Hill, Myles Turner, and Ty Lawson. All are finding their offensive niche as teams defensive intensity wanes down the stretch.

The Pacers get the sweep and do so in big fashion.

Kings 717

Monday, the Sacramento Kings head to Phoenix to take on the surging Suns. Phoenix has won consecutive road games as a double-digit underdog against the Houston Rockets and in blowout fashion against the Pelicans on Saturday.

In the efforts the Suns continue to see the bright future of young guard Devin Booker. Booker has averaged over twenty points per game since March 1st. 

Yet, I believe we saw the peak capabilities of the Suns depleted roster talent in both of there recent wins.

The spotlight hovering around DeMarcus Cousins resting is creating the Suns high spread tonight. In the Kings last four games where Cousins has missed due to suspension or rest their only cover was a .5 point backdoor against the Miami Heat.

Still, I believe the Kings can thrive here against a Suns team returning home after five of seven road games. Expect a bit of rust from the Suns. 

04/10 03:05 PM  NBA   (513) ORLANDO MAGIC VS (514) MIAMI HEAT (04/10 03:27 AM) edit

Take: (514) MIAMI HEAT 

Reason: Miami Heat 514 The Miami Heat will look to avenge a road Friday loss to Orlando on their home floor Sunday. The Magic likely will be without Aaron Gordon and Victor Oladipo. Gordon missed Friday's matchup and Oladipo sustained a concussion and is doubtful. In Friday's loss the Heat veterans let the Magic play at their tempo with offensive rhythm. Yet, I expect a completely different level of intensity from a Heat team that needs to get back to the defensive mind set they showcased post All-Star break. This is their final regular season home game before concluding the season on the road in Detroit and Boston. Look for a strong sense of urgency from the Heat who lost a tight one Friday with a subpar effort.

04/10 09:05 AM  NBA   (501) CHARLOTTE HORNETS VS (502) WASHINGTON WIZARDS (04/10 03:26 AM) edit

Take: (502) WASHINGTON WIZARDS 

Reason: Charlotte 502 After watching the Wizards lose in blowout fashion on National TV to the Pistons, you'd expect a poor showing Sunday with nothing to play for. John Wall is listed as doubtful and the Wizards are out of playoff contention. Charlotte on the other hand is playoff bound and playing with a deep eight man rotation led by Kemba Walker. Still, I see value here on the Wizards. They battled tough against a Detroit team that had lost three prior match ups to the Wizards. Also the Wizards had just come off a five-game West road trip. The Hornets are a team that still has issues with interior scoring. Al Jefferson is coming back into the fold, but youth lies with Frank Kaminsky and Cody Zeller. Expect Markieff Morris, Nene Hilario, and Martin Gortat to control the paint and the Wizards overall to bounce back from Friday's loss.

Memphis Grizzlies (706)

The Grizzlies will try and prevent the Golden State Warriors historic quest of reaching 73 wins.

To do so they'll need to rely on veterans Matt Barnes, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter to slow down the Warriors assault.

Last night as 6.5 point underdogs they fell short against the Mavericks ATS as Dallas took over in the fourth quarter.

Yet, this is a Grizzlies team that has fought through adversity with season ending injuries to Marc Gasol and Mike Conley Jr. Don't forget this decimated Grizzlies team defeated a Lebron James Cavaliers team in Cleveland on March 7th.

As potent as the Warriors are they're human. Defending their NBA title in the playoffs is their ultimate goal and I wouldn't be surprised to see a cat and mouse game through three quarters Saturday. Grab the Grizzlies. 

Phoenix (701)

As you look around the NBA perhaps no team is as decimated with injuries as the New Orleans Pelicans. In fact, nine players fill the injury report. Yet, the Pelicans are getting solid contributions from unheralded players such as Tim Frazier, Dante Cunningham, and Alexis Anjinca.

Their recent surge included last night's win over the Lakers as well as a spirited effort in a fifteen point loss to the Celtics.

Yet, the Suns have the better depth and are playing with poise under interim Coach Earl Watson. 

Thursday, they landed just their eighth road win of the season with superb effort as five players contributed in double-figures.

Look for another road victory to happen as the Suns boast an interior(Chandler/Len/PJ Tucker) and backcourt advantage(Booker/Goodwin) that should overwhelm the Pelicans. Grab the Suns. 

512 Boston

Injuries continue to pile up for the Milwaukee Bucks. They'll be without Jerryd Bayless and forward Khris Middleton tonight against the Celtics. That's troublesome as the Bucks have struggled with floor spacing due to the lack of point guard contributions. Remember point guard Michael Carter-Williams is already out for the season with a  hip injury.

Over the Bucks last two games they're just six for twenty three from three point range. At point guard they've had to use rookie Rashad Vaughn, who did not play that role in college at UNLV. Current backup Tyler Ennis still seems to be adjusting to the NBA level.

Boston seemed to have a hangover effect from their recent West Coast road trip when they nearly lost Wednesday as fifteen point favorites against the Pelicans. That won't be the case tonight as the Celtics should cruise here.

Detroit 508

Tonight the Detroit Pistons will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards. In fact, their last meeting on March 14th was the Pistons worst loss of the season in a 124-81 beat down. Yet, Detroit is coming off an efficient game Wednesday in which six players scored in double figures. Essentially the Pistons have clinched the eighth seed in the East with a 2.5 game lead with three games left. 

Look for the Wizards recent five game West Coast trip to also be a factor here tonight. Grab the Pistons to prevent a season sweep and avenge March's embarrassing 43 point loss. 

Atlanta Hawks 704

-6.5

An adage in sports is not to buy-in to what you last saw of a team. Last Wednesday-March 30th the Hawks were blitzed by the Toronto Raptors in an eight point 105-97 road loss. Inexplicably the Hawks got off to such a poor start that they trailed by twenty two points at the end of three quarters. 

Statistically the Hawks did not shoot poorly as they shot 44.6% from the field. They were defeated in the x-factor categories. Eighteen turnovers did them in as well as a  free throws made disadvantage as the Raptors made thirteen more.

I anticipate this faring much differently as the Toronto is 22-16 on the road versus 30-9 at home. Also, the Hawks are in need of a win as they're in a tight playoff race with the Celtics, Heat, and Hornets. All are separated by one game with the Hawks currently in the third spot.  A loss tonight could potentially drop the Hawks down to the sixth spot.

Grab the Hawks to ride their balanced rotational attack with Al Horford, Paul Millsap, and Jeff Teague and avenge last Wednesday's loss. 

Charlotte 509

Today's lone isolation ATS play comes between the Hornets and Knicks. The Hornets are coming off a tough road loss in which they shot the ball poorly against the Raptors. Yet, I think they'll respond in a big way on the road in MSG against a Knicks team that has over achieved down the stretch. Look for the Hornets to get shots to fall Wednesday and hurdle the Knicks with ease.

Play NBA Milwaukee (712)

Lets face it there are five games remaining on the season for the Cavaliers. All may seem well with the fact that the Cavs have won eleven of their last fourteen, but it's apparent Lebron James may be in for his toughest playoff run yet. In their latest victory over the Hornets the Cavs received over 25 points from James, JR Smith, and K Love on 50 percent or better shooting. Yet, as has been the case in several instances the Cavs let a near 20 point lead evaporate. Milwaukee is a battling team and should give the Cavs a worthwhile game

Play Philadelphia 76ers (702)

To conclude the season the 76ers have exhibited pride in comebacks recently against the Pacers and Hornets. Both times they fell short but I believe there is hunger from the team to reach double digit wins. This is their best shot against a Pelicans team decimated by injuries. Grab the 76ers young lineup in a peculiar spot as a favorite to win.

04/03 04:05 PM  NBA   (515) CHICAGO BULLS VS (516) MILWAUKEE BUCKS (04/03 10:51 AM) edit

Take: (515) CHICAGO BULLS 

Reason: Bulls +2.5 On the season the Bulls and Bucks have played some entertaining games. Much has changed with both teams since last year's playoff series. As the season winds down the Bulls are in danger of missing out on the playoffs. While Milwaukee is setup at home to play spoiler I believe the Bulls can use their veteran lineup to hurdle the young Buck. Grab the Bulls in a plus spot Sunday.

04/03 12:35 PM  NBA   (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (508) HOUSTON ROCKETS (04/03 10:51 AM) edit

Take: (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

Reason: OKC -3 Sunday, Houston tries to stay in the hunt of the Western Conference playoffs. Currently, they trail the Utah Jazz by a full game for the eighth seed. Thus far on the year they've been terrific ATS against the Thunder with two covers and a push. Yet, the Thunder are playing at an elite level right now. We'll grab the value on a reduced number to throttle the Rockets playoff chances.

04/03 12:35 PM  NBA   (509) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (510) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (04/03 10:50 AM) edit

Take: (510) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 

Reason: Clippers -6 Washington is another team on the outside looking in on the playoffs. They're coming off a nice come from behind win against the Suns but are facing an energized Blake Griffin Clippers Sunday. Normally it's tough to back a team that has a star player returning from a long absence. Yet the Clippers roster is filled with players that know their role accordingly. That's the opposite of the Wizards. Clippers coast here.

Miami -6.5

            Friday in the NBA Association we'll look for the Heat to bounce back on the road against Sacramento. The Heat lost against an emotional Lakers team amidst a team rift and the conclusion of Kobe Bryant's career. Out in Sacramento there is also a rift occurring but it's one that does not bode well for the home team. Team chemistry has been long gone and George Karl appears to be on the hot seat yet again. Grab the Heat to take care of business Friday in Sacramento..

04/01 04:35 PM  NBA   (503) BROOKLYN NETS VS (504) NEW YORK KNICKS (04/01  PM) edit

Take: (503) BROOKLYN NETS 

Reason: Brooklyn +5.5 The Nets are coming off back to back poor double-digit losses. Yet tonight they're getting value against a Knicks team that has provided a spark ATS as of late. Getting 5.5-6 points is just too much to back the Knicks against a young Nets team that still has a veteran presence with Young and Lopez.

Nets +6.5

         Victor Oladipo's return to the lineup has inflated tonight's spread on the Magic's side. Brooklyn did play last night against Miami but I like the way the Nets are evaluating their roster. Eleven players played ten minutes or greater as interim Coach Tony Brown looks for the talent the Nets will keep next season. I can't back a team that's lost ten of thirteen ATS in this spot. Grab the Nets

Sacramento +11

            Sacramento plays in their third straight game tonight as they travel to Portland. The Kings have won two consecutive games by double digit fashion against the Mavericks and Suns. There's obvious ATS value here as the Kings likely would be 8.5 point dogs on a normal night. Due to the Trailblazers bench shooting woes with Crabbe/Henderson I'll grab the Kings. 

Phoenix +7

            Monday, we'll grab the Phoenix Suns on the road against the Timberwolves. Minnesota's youth is truly shining as of late but I like the grit the young Suns have showcased. Their record may be poor but they're not playing with tank mode in mind like some other teams are. Grab the Suns in a value spot of seven points.

OKC -2.5

            Toronto is one of the few teams I usually veer from going against on their home floor. Yet, OKC is playing at an elite enough level that I am willing to back them as a small favorite here. They'll need to be ready for a few solid runs from the Raptors but I expect their depth to match the home team. Grab OKC.

Miami -9.5

            On the season the Nets and Heat have played three close games against each other. So you'd figure the Nets would give the Heat another close game late in the season. Not exactly. The Nets are too reliant on young players and D-League call ups compared to other season matchups. Don't fall for the line trap here. Grab the Heat.

Play Dallas +6.5

            Dallas defeated the Trailblazers in overtime on their home floor a few nights ago and tonight they're catching 6.5. That's a head scratcher to me as the Mavericks have faced possibly the toughest schedule of any team over the last two weeks. Games against the Cavs, Warriors, OKC, etc. I think their veteran team is blossoming at the right time and will give the Blazers another good game in Portland.

Play Lakers +5.5

            The Lakers grabbed us an ATS win last night and we'll look for them to repeat against the Suns. Phoenix has grabbed some ATS value after impressive performances as steep underdogs over the last three weeks. The return of Brandon Knight and boosted play of guard Devin Booker has helped. Yet it doesn't take away the fact that the Suns have a poor front line and are prone to poor defense. The Lakers aren't much better but this is a rare spot where I'll back a team playing on consecutive nights. I like the offensive fire power the Lakers have showcased and believe they can build a sustainable early lead against the Suns.

Play Bulls -8.5

            Chicago's Fred Hoiberg has tweaked the starting lineup numerous times due to Bulls injuries. Depth has grown for the Bulls bench as a result of the plethora of injuries on the season. Confidence with young players such as Bobby Portis, McDermott, and others is there with consistency to spell the veteran Bulls. Tonight they should pile on a Knicks team that lacks depth and is changing over for next year.

Lakers +3

            Today we'll grab the Lakers as slight home underdogs against the Grizzlies. The Lakers took a beating against the Grizzlies a few weeks back on the road and at home. Yet, I believe today they'll respond with better offense against a Grizzlies team with a completely different nucleus of players. Grab the Lakers at home tonight

Houston +10

            Earlier in the season we had a heart breaking push on the Rockets against the Thunder in the +8 range. Tonight they're getting an extra two points on the road as the Thunder are in the midst of one of their better stretches of the season. Yet I can't pass up the value here on the Rockets who are in need of a competitive game. Grab Houston.

Miami -9

            Tonight the Heat are steep favorites against the Pelicans. New Orleans have done a great job without Anthony Davis and are coming off solid outings against the Kings and Clippers. Yet tonight will be a challenge against the Heat. Miami's been winning ugly before sparking in a key blowout win over the Cavaliers. I like the momentum they are showcasing which should carry over against an over valued Pelicans team.

Charlotte -6

            Charlotte won in comeback fashion last night over the Spurs from a steep deficit. In the game the starters struggled on the offensive end. Luckily Jeremy Lin picked up the slack for the Bobcats. Tonight we should see the starters back in gear against a Nets team that has lost the ebb and flow once showcased three weeks ago.

Dallas +9.5

            No one knows what to make of the Mavericks veteran team. A lot likely will change with the team this offseason but they're still showcasing heart on any given night. I like the fact that they did not let up on the road down 18 multiple times to the Cavs.  Many people would see that as an extreme disadvantage against the hot shooting Warriors but I see it as an opportunity back on their home floor. Grab the value here with the Mavericks.

Detroit -7

            Detroit's rusty play lately presents value on their home floor against a team performing as poorly as anyone in the Sacramento Kings. Detroit's faced some tough defensive teams as of late which has attributed too poorer defense on their part. Tonight they'll get easy shots and poor shot attempts/turnovers from the Kings. Grab Detroit.

Atlanta -7.5

            We'll grab the Hawks today against a Denver team that has had a few days off since losing to Miami. They did perform well in that game but played against a lackluster Heat team as Joe Johnson has hurt their defense and it was D Wade's returning game.

Sacramento -4

            The Kings have had a down period but today we'll grab them against the Pelicans at home. Expect little defense and lots of scoring as neither team is a defensive juggernaut. Yet, I expect the Kings to regain some of the form we saw from them before the All-Star break. Rudy Gay is bound to get back on track tonight.

03/16 04:05 PM  NBA   (603) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (604) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (03/16 11:47 AM) edit

Take: (604) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 

Reason: Cleveland -9.5 Dallas did play the Cavs fairly well a month and a half ago but I don't anticipate them duplicating such efforts tonight. Cleveland has elevated their play since that game and should be able to catch the veteran Mavericks off guard early and often. Grab the Cavs to cruise tonight at home.

Detroit Pistons +1.5

            Detroit's one of those teams that when you want to discount they're going to show up in a big way. I believe they'll do that today after laying a dud a couple of times in the past week. Stanley Johnson is back and I like the backcourt advantage the Pistons have with Jackson/Pope over a tiresome Wizards John Wall led team. Grab Detroit

Miami Heat -6.5

            The Heat been an up and down team but still are playing well even in losses. They return home today against a Denver team that has reshuffled pieces since the All-Star break. Young players such as Gary Harris and rookie Mudiay should struggle against the hustle extended depth of the Heat. Grab Miami

Atlanta -4

         In the last matchup of the Hawks and Pacers we grabbed a slight backdoor cover on the Hawks in thrilling fashion. The Pacers controlled the game the majority of the way before slipping in the last three minutes. Even though the Pacers are playing better than what we saw originally post All-Star break I'm still leery of backing them here. Both teams are coming off games yesterday and I believe the Hawks are worthy backing on their home floor again. Grab the Hawks.

Toronto -5.5

            Toronto looks to creep closer to the Cavaliers as the top seed in the East with today's game against the Heat. I believe they will get closer as they've been a juggernaut offensively on their home floor. Don't forget Miami added Joe Johnson to the starting lineup recently, which has benefitted the Heat. Yet, there comes a time where the offense bogs down with new personnel and I believe we'll see that happen today. Toronto is a dangerous spurt team similar to Golden State. Look for two to three surges to be too much for the Heat.

Charlotte -4

         The Hornets continue to be over looked but I'll jump in on them tonight against the Pistons. Detroit has been a bit back and forth since the All-Star break as they try to identify as a team. Charlotte's depth and home court edge should be enough to get us this posting victory ATS.

Memphis -10.5

         In the NBA we'll grab Memphis who takes on Phoenix as an eleven point favorite. Memphis is one of the few teams in the NBA that has shown consistency to bring an A effort against the bottom feeders of the NBA. They've dismantled teams such as Philadelphia and the Lakers. Their offense is growing which should allow them to grab an early lead and run away with Sunday's matchup.

Knicks +5.5

            The Knicks showed some heart for the first time in quite a bit last night in a close loss to the Celtics. At home today against a much improved Pistons team you'd figure a let down would be in-store. Instead I'll grab the Knicks as the Pistons are still in a transitional phase with newcomer Tobias Harris and the losses of veterans Ilyasova/Jennings and Stanley Johnson's injury. Play the Knicks plus five.

Toronto -1.5

            Detroit was sharp last night for us but today I see the value shifted against them in favor of Toronto. Toronto is playing as fluid of basketball as any team in the NBA with Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan at the top of their game. Detroit's flaws have been stopping guard penetration and scoring. Toronto has had great success against Detroit over recent years and I see that continuing today. Grab the Raptors

Detroit +1

            Milwaukee has been a juggernaut ATS and has the mold of one of the best young teams in the NBA. Yet Detroit's addition of Tobias Harris just is a different animal to contain as the Pistons look like a team on the cusp. The Bucks are a team reliant on attacking the basket for points and I believe the Pistons can contain half court settings and get some easy transition baskets. Grab Detroit.

Chicago +5

            Portland has caught the attention of the betting world with some eye catching blowout wins over Cleveland and Golden State and other head scratchers like a loss to the Rockets the other night. Chicago is a team that played Portland against their strengths a few months back in a win at Portland. Though Chicago has injuries they're more than capable of winning this game with offense and doing enough defensively. I'll take the five here with the Bulls.

Boston Celtics -5.5

            The Celtics face a Miami Heat team that's been a force post All-Star break. Yet all the Heat games were at home. On the road today against Boston I think we'll see a Celtics team showcase their upper echelon capabilities. Depth is a huge question mark for the Heat which leads me to believe a poor second half stretch should do the job for the Celtics.

Golden State -8.5

            We'll grab the Warriors as they continue on their east coast trip. They've had some close calls against the Heat and Hawks but tonight I believe they'll open things up early against the Magic. Orlando's added some new pieces and does have size but there still one of the more poorer teams defensively. A couple surges by the Warriors should be enough to get this cover.

Play Lakers +8

            The lone play in both college or NBA Wednesday will be the Lakers plus eight. While the Lakers play and record has been pathetic this season, they've quietly been an under the radar team ATS as of late. They're come from behind ATS cover the other night may leave bettors in position to pounce against them today against Memphis. Yet, I like the way their youth is playing and don't believe the veteran Grizzlies are worthy of such points at this juncture. Grab the Lakers plus eight.

Indiana +2

            Indiana and Miami have been the best series to watch this season from an ATS and overall fan of the game. Each time it seems the other team is able to stage a comeback from a deficit. In the last game Miami erased an 18 point late third quarter deficit to force overtime and win. Tonight though I see a game that may actually play to the onset of first quarter action. Miami likely will be without D Wade for a third straight game and that's too much to overcome against a tall defensive Pacers team. Miami can get away with playing great defense in certain instances but Indiana has too much familiarity with their lineup. Grab Indiana.

Boston Celtics -2

            About a month ago we had the Celtics at home against the Nuggets in what was a poor back door loss. Boston blew a 20 point fourth quarter lead to allow two chippies in the final minute for an eight point win on a 9.5 point spread. We'll go with them here on the road as I believe we'll see a better defensive effort than what we saw from the Celtics in that home game. Too much value here against a Denver club that overachieved leading up to the All Star break.

Rockets- +5.5

            You'd expect the Rockets to have the tired legs after playing last night against Golden State but I expect it to be the Trailblazers. Portland played a long overtime grind out affair against the Grizzlies. Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum shot below 50% and attempted over 20 shots. Their shots were crafty off the dribble and dribble drive attempts. Unlike the Rockets who shot in an open court contest all night long against the Warriors. Also the Rockets laid a dud just a few nights before against this Trailblazers team. We'll grab the value here in the Rockets.

Clippers- Pick

            Boston's coming off a loss last night against the Milwaukee Bucks in which they erased an 18 point fourth quarter deficit to tie the game at 109. Two sequences of highs and lows then occurred. A lay in by Greg Monroe with one second left made it 111-109 before Boston tied it again with two free throws. Then a mental error by Marcus Smart drew two free throws to give the Bucks the victory. That's as mentally taxing of a loss a team can sustain and this is coming before an elongated All Star break. The Clippers on the other hand got away with a win against the hapless 76ers. But in watching that game it was not the effort. Shots just were not falling as customarily for the Clippers. They have their legs back underneath them and I expect the Clippers to come out strong and hold on for a road win against the Celtics.

Pacers -3.5

            Though I was very impressed with the Bobcats performance against the Bulls, the Bulls were without their main players and the bench of Hinrich/Brooks/McDermott isn't as stellar as in years past. I do believe eventually the Bobcats will see some rust from Kidd-Gilchrist and tonight could be that night against the physical size/strength of the Pacers. George Hill and Paul George are matchup nightmares for the undersized Bobcats. Grab the Pacers at home to show their home court connection tonight.

Bucks +4.5

            The Bucks did come up short on their west coast trip but showed some grit in close games against the Kings, Jazz, and other opponents. This is a great opportunity for them to capitalize at home before the break against an over achieving Boston Celtics team. Boston's offense has been proficient but their defense as a whole has faltered as of late. At home with young talent we'll grab the Bucks Tuesday.

Bulls +6--Analysis to Follow

We're grabbing the Bulls at +6 Monday as the lone ATS play of the day. I see high value on a team that's lost three of their last four games, has two players out (Butler, Mirotic), and is wrapping up the last game of a seven game road trip. This is the fourth matchup between the two teams and although the Hornets are the healthier team---both know each others offensive/defensive sets well. In the other three matchups the Bulls were favored in all by 3.5, 5.5, and 6.5 points. We'll grab the line reversal here on the Bulls.

Play Clippers -9

            The notion here would be to grab the 76ers with rationale that the Clippers are due for a let down on their current road trip. Instead, I see this is as one of the best bargains of value ATS this NBA season. The 76ers have lured bettors with covers and close calls recently including a come from behind finish against the Warriors. Yet, the Clippers depth is perfect for this road spot. Jamal Crawford is excelling at the moment along with JJ Redick, CP3, and DeAndre Jordan. The bench is also contributing high value with Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, and Wesley Johnson. Grab the Clippers who will remain focused with eyes on rest during All Star break.

OKC +8

            When the Warriors and Thunder meet in the western conference finals/quarterfinals you will not catch an eight point spread in the playoffs. Yet, it's here in the regular season and we'll jump all over it. Yes, Golden State has been dominant but the Thunder can obviously do the same amount of scoring when they want. Defensively, the Thunder play under their capabilities on a nightly basis but in this level of a game I expect to see a better effort. Grab the Thunder.

Clippers -4.5

            The lone play for Friday will come with the Clippers. First the Clippers are gaining value here based on an early Eastern start time in Orlando. Secondly, they just suffered a loss to the Timberwolves who had lost eleven straight prior. But I will not over value that loss as the Timberwolves had been competitive against OKC, Cleveland, Utah, and against a few other opponents. Orlando has rose their play recently with a win against Boston and a nice effort as steep dogs against OKC. Yet, they're defensive issues will come to the forefront tonight. The Clippers should be able to churn an octane performance and score in the 115-125 range. Grab the Clippers

Milwaukee Bucks +4

            Jason Kidd and the Bucks head to Sacramento Monday night to start a new road trip. This is a matchup of young lineups that will merit my attention ATS. I've been impressed with Milwaukee's in-game coaching from Jason Kidd. Sacramento just does not put teams away especially at home. The Bucks are getting better as each game goes on and I believe Kidd will make the proper in-game adjustments to have the Bucks in this. Grab Milwaukee

Utah Jazz -4.5

            While some may want to latch onto the Bulls for value Monday I will not. Utah has caught my eye as they continue to get better overall. They're in the hunt currently for the last seed in the West. Now healthy with Derrick Favors back, they also have young pieces that have seen the green light of the NBA. Trey Burke, Rodney Hood, and Rudy Gobert have all raised their level of play in the month of January to go along with budding star Gordon Hayward. The Jazz home court altitude hindering the Bulls will be an angle by handicappers but I just see it as a good matchup for the Jazz. Grab Utah.

Indiana Pacers +4.5

            Cleveland's surge before the All-Star break has paved the way for LeBron and company to hit their stroll. Yet I can't ignore the fact that the Cavaliers where facing a deficit deep into the second quarter against the Suns and blown out by the Warriors. Indiana has value Monday at home as they've been a strong home team all season. Grab the Pacers

Timberwolves +8.5

            This game keeps rising on the number as the Jazz look to give payback to the Timberwolves from a 94-80 loss December 30th. I'll gladly take the points here as people ignore standout details. Yes, Derrick Favors returned Monday but rust is evident after nearly a month off with a back injury. The rising play of Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward has taking the eyes off a Jazz offense that still struggles at times. Minnesota's youth is relentless and will apply pressure to this Jazz offense. Grab the Twolves plus the points.

Rockets +7.5

            The Rockets may have been defeated by the Spurs in blowout fashion but they've steadily been playing better basketball as of late. OKC on the other hand has made some lineup adjustments with Dion Waiters in the starting lineup and is coming off a road trip of wins against the Knicks/Timberwolves. Yet I am not impressed with how they've looked defensively and believe the value lies here with the Rockets.

Minnesota +7

            OKC is coming off an incredible come from behind win against the Knicks. Rather than see it as an igniting point I'll take the value on the young Timberwolves who have performed better in recent games against the Mavericks and Cavaliers. OKC is still lackluster defensively which does not bode well on the road in back to back games.

Atlanta Hawks -5

            The Clippers bounced back nicely from a blowout defeat to the Raptors to win with defense against the Pacers. Yet there certainly a team wearing down a bit before All Star break. Doc Rivers did not want to have to utilize Paul Pierce as much as he had and the wear/tear is showing. The Clippers needed a come from behind effort against a tired Miami Heat team, were blown out by the Cavs, and blown out by the Raptors. The Hawks should be able to handle the Clippers tonight.

Boston -9.5

            After slumping for a stretch it appears the Celtics have regained their stride. They're playing with balanced energy and seem to have been ignited by their win against the Bulls as they torched the Wizards on their home floor the other night. Denver has played a bit over their heads and I see the Celtics handling them with ease tonight.

Raptors -7.5

            Initially you'd expect a professional franchise team to respond after a 25 point home loss last night to the Celtics. Yet, the Wizards have lost three of four at home and now head on the road to face a surging Raptors team. Quietly the Raptors feature eight players that average 20 minutes or more---7 scored in double digits in their latest win vs the Clippers. These teams are playing at a different level than three weeks ago when the Raptors utilized a strong third quarter to win 97-88 at Washington. While there may be perceived road value here I expect a Raptors blowout.

Play Sacramento -3

            After a thrilling victory against the Hawks one would believe the Kings would have a let down at home against the Pacers. As you look around the NBA we're starting to see a lot of teams wearing down before the All Star Break. I believe the Pacers are one as they've had a few key injuries and remember Paul George is coming off a full year without basketball. Value here lies with the Kings.

Play Milwaukee +6

            One of the teams surging right now are the Pelicans. You have to wonder how long can they sustain this type of offense. After demolishing a strong defensive team in the Pistons you'd figure they'd do the same against a Bucks team as just a one-point differential favorite of -6 instead of -5. Yet, the Bucks are improving by the day and have a young deep rotation that should give the Pelicans a tall task today.

Oklahoma City -5.5

            The Thunder are on the ascent and as well as the Mavericks have played you have to believe a bit of a wall is coming for them. They patched through the first few weeks of the season with an unhealthy roster before getting Matthews/Parsons in the lineup. They've shown the ability to play as a veteran team but I like the team balance and chemistry of OKC to get the job done on the road tonight.

Play Charlotte Bobcats +5

            It's highly evident that the Charlotte Bobcats are exceeding their ceiling of play as Kemba Walker continues to exhibit a dominating showcase and that the Magic are under achieving. Yet one can not ignore the lack of offensive from the Magic. They're struggling in all phases. Rather than latch onto a team in the Magic that are due for a win we'll grab the value of +5 with a confident Hornets club.

Memphis -1.5

            Tonight we'll look for the Grizzlies to handle the Nuggets in the altitude. I believe the Grizzlies have a bad taste in their mouth the last time they were in altitude and lost in overtime against the Jazz. The Nuggets who are playing their sixth straight home game have gained ATS support here as a result. Yet I don't expect the easy looks at the basket they've been getting from non-defensive teams such as OKC, Golden State, and others to be the case tonight against a hungry Grizzlies team. Grab the Grizzlies.

Cavs -3

            Seeing the Cavs as a favorite against a Warriors team they struggled with in last year's post season and on Christmas Day is a bit of a head scratcher. But as I stated a week ago the Cavaliers are playing a different elevated brand of basketball that hasn't been seen since Lebron returned. Couple that with the Warriors tired legs and recent losses and I do believe we have enough advantage to make a play on the Cavs tonight.

Magic +8

            The Magic have been a thorn for backers over the last two weeks but now is a good time to get a return on investments with them. They grabbed us a cover in Europe in an overtime loss to the Raptors and I see them doing so again today. Atlanta is still probing for the right mix of minutes with Korver struggling and youth playing well with Hardaway Jr, Schroeder, and Bazemore. Orlando's interior defense should keep them in this game and I expect their offense to continue to move upward from what we saw against Toronto.

Utah +2.5

            Utah has had their issues on the road but I think today is a good spot to grab them against a Bobcats team that's started to falter. Perhaps they were playing over their heads with key production from young players and veterans. Utah has showed better balance offensively lately and should be able to disrupt the Bobcats offensively enough to win this.

Milwaukee +6

            Milwaukee once again has value here as oddsmakers and bettors have no faith. They got us a few nights ago against the Bulls as they erased an eight point deficit at home. Yesterday they prevailed against the Hawks and today they get to face a Bobcats team that has been wildly inconsistent for the last two weeks. This is strictly a value play as until the Bobcats show stability I'll continue to play reasonable numbers against them. Grab the Bucks

Miami -2.5

            The Heat are nearing the end of their road trip against the Denver Nuggets. Denver defeated the Warriors as 9.5 point underdogs and the Heat blew a first half lead for the second consecutive game. Against Utah they lost as the Jazz clamped down defensively in the altitude. Against the Clippers the Heat lost against prolific offense in the second half. This time around against the Nuggets the Heat should be able to control the pace of play for four quarters and pull off the win.

Cleveland +7

            The Spurs are surging with plenty of double digit wins to make bettors happy. Yet tonight they're facing a focused and determined Cavs team. Since Kyrie Irving has returned they've looked better than they have ever before since Lebron returned to Cleveland last season. We took the value a few nights ago on the Mavs +6 and can not overlook tonight's value on the Cavs. Grab Cleveland

Orlando +4.5

            Orlando finally has value after a horrific stretch of play against the Cavs, Wizards, etc. They've been rested and I believe they're ready to pose a challenge ATS and against a Raptors team that has been wildly inconsistent. Expect a competitive game wire to wire in England

Portland -2.5

            Portland is getting value tonight in my opinion from one of the toughest schedules a team has had to face over the last week and a half. Utah took care of business against the Heat Saturday but I'll devalue that. For the majority of the game the Heat were in control before running out of gas defensively and offensively. Utah's lineup does not have the firepower to match the potent Trailblazers for four quarters. Grab the Blazers

Dallas +6

            It's been a handful of games since the Cavs have been truly challenged by a capable opponent. They've had an easy road against teams such as the Timberwolves, Magic, and others. Dallas has finally hit their stride offensively with Matthews and Parsons performing well along with point guard Williams. They'll be up for the challenge tonight against the Cavs.

Chicago -3

            Sometimes facing the right opponent at the wrong time can lead to improper judging of a team. The Bulls have lost consecutive games in torching fashion against the Hawks and Wizards. Atlanta had their number last season and carried it over and Washington as I stated last night are finding their edge. Tonight look for the Bulls to respond on the road against the young Bucs.

Memphis -1.5

            Memphis achieved an incredible come back against the Celtics the other night. Rather than discount that win I'll stamp it with approval into tonight's matchup against the Rockets. Even though Houston had a great win against the Pacers I'm not sold on the quality of basketball I've witnessed from them. There are still too many issues and I do not like the play I'm seeing from veterans Howard, Brewer, Terry, or guard Beverly. Grab the Grizzlies to hold their home court tonight and continue to gain momentum.

Phoenix +10

            Phoenix has been horrendous but gets a favorable road spot tonight after three days rest against Indiana. Indiana is coming off four consecutive road games in which they exerted a high level of energy. One they let an 18-point lead against the Heat slip away and another against the Pelicans they fought back from a fourteen point deficit. This led to a fatigued effort against Houston in which the defense surrendered 107 points. Grab the Suns who should have enough offense to hang in this one.

Wizards +8

            Odds are inflated Monday with Chicago losing to Atlanta to end their seven game win streak. Quietly the Wizards are finding confidence as Bradley Beal misses time with an injury. John Wall's play is entering a phase of brilliance that I think carries over on the road against the Bulls tonight. Grab the Wizards +8.