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#115/116 ASA PLAY ON Over 45.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern’s pass defense is one of the worst in the nation (110th) and we expect them to get torched here by Maryland’s passing game which ranks 17th averaging over 300 YPG through the air.  Last week the Cats faced Indiana in Evanston in windy conditions right on Lake Michigan (NW temporary stadium is right on the lake) and despite those conditions the Hoosiers put up 41 points and over 300 yards passing.  The Terps offense ranks in the top 35 averaging 452 YPG and they have not been held below 24 points this season (they average 33 PPG).  NW starting QB Lausch has made some real noticeable progress since taking over for previous starter Wright a few weeks ago.  Lausch struggled in his first road start vs Washington (who has a top 10 defense) but looked really good last week vs the Hoosiers.  In that game Lausch threw for 243 yards and 2 TD’s in less than ideal conditions (windy).  NW put up 24 points in that loss.  We expect Lausch to have more success on Friday evening vs a Maryland defense that ranks 120th defending the pass allowing 270 YPG.  When these 2 met last year the total was set in the high 40’s and they flew over the total with 60 points.  These teams have faced off 4 times since Maryland joined the Big 10 and all 4 have totaled at least 46 points with an average of 55 total points.  The weather looks perfect in College Park on Friday night with temps in the low 60’s and light winds.  Over is the call.  

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Louisiana Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here in this CUSA battle.  MTSU ranks 98th in YPP on offense while La Tech ranks 119th.  They average 16 PPG and 19 PPG respectively. They only game in which MTSU topped 21 points was vs FCS Tennessee Tech and even in that game the Blue Raiders tallied only 328 total yards.  In this match up, they are facing a very solid La Tech defense that ranks 30th nationally in total defense and 23rd in YPP allowed at just 4.5.  The only team that topped 20 points vs this LT defense this season (in regulation) was NC State and even in that game the Wolfpack only had 23 offensive points (they scored a defensive TD for 30 points).  The Bulldogs have held every opponent to under their season PPG average this year including NC State if you subtract the defensive TD by the Wolfpack.  Offensively this Tech team is not good.  The only game in which they topped 325 total yards was vs FCS Nicholls State and in that game they only scored 25 points.  They have not topped 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents this season.  Last week, they faced an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 and the Bulldogs only put up 17 points (17-10 win).  MTSU’s defense ranks very low as well, however La Tech has struggled against every defense they’ve faced, good or bad.  The MTSU defense actually has a bit of momentum as well holding a potent Memphis offense to 24 points in their most recent game.  We don’t think either team gets into the mid 20’s here so Under is the play.    

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Over 58 Points – New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Two terrible defenses in this game will lead to a higher scoring game. These 2 rank 111th and 126th in total defense and 120th and 121st in scoring defense. The Jax State offense is rolling right now and should have their way vs this NMSU defense 30+ points in every game this season (minus their one FCS opponent). In their most recent game, the Aggies gave up 50 points and almost 600 yards to arch rival New Mexico. JSU has put up 141 points in their last 3 games alone (47 PPG) and they averaged over 500 YPG in those games. That shouldn’t change on Wednesday vs one of the worst defensive teams in the country. New Mexico State should also have offensive success in this game. Their offensive numbers aren’t great this season (19.6 PPG) but they’ve only faced one defense this season outside the top 100 (same range as JSU) and the Aggies put up 40 points in that game vs New Mexico. They also put up 24 points vs Liberty who has a top 35 defense. The Aggies strength on offense is their running game (155 YPG rushing) and that plays directly into JSU’s defensive weakness as they rank 118th defending the run. Jacksonville State plays as a very fast pace (9th in seconds per play) and NMSU is in the top half of the country in tempo. We should get plenty of offensive snaps in this game and with poor defensive teams, we’ll call for the Over in this game.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 152.5 Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx Tues, 8 PM ET - We were on the Under in Game 4 and lost. It’s interesting that Game 4 goes Over the number by 20 points and the oddsmakers lowered the number for tonight’s game from 153.5 to 151.5. We are betting on a regression from the last two games and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. In Game 4 these two teams attempted just 126 field goals, well below the season average of 136. The Sun shot ridiculously well at 54% overall and 53% from Deep. Minnesota hit 47% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering these two teams are two of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. With this being an elimination game, we like both defenses to shine and the offenses to struggle. With another slower pace expected this game does not reach 150+.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet.

ASA play on UNDER 153.5 Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun, 5 PM ET - First off, another boneheaded move by the WNBA execs who would schedule these playoff games on NFL Sunday. OK, well on to this game and how we see it shaping up. We are betting on a regression from the last game and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering the Sun are one of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. In Game 3 these two teams played at a below average pace with 134 FGA’s (league average 136). The Sun have stayed Under the total in 4 of their last five at home and off that home loss we like them to ratchet up their defense in this one and the Lynx are always good on that end of the court. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164 New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces – Game 3 Friday 9:30 PM ET - This O/U number has steadily crept up from Game 1 which started at 162.5 but the Game 3 number hasn’t been adjusted high enough according to our model. In the opener of this series these two teams combined for 164 total points. In Game 2 they finished with 172. In G1 these two teams combined for an abnormally low number of field goal attempts at 126 (league ave. this season was 136) and still managed 164 total points. In Game 2 we saw the pace of play tick up with the two teams combining for 136 FGA’s. With the Aces down 0-2 in the series they will want to do what they do best at home, play fast and transition basketball. The Aces were the 2nd fastest team in the league when playing at home and the Liberty were 4th fastest on the road. These were two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league and ranked 1st and 2nd in Offensive Net rating. They were 2nd (Aces) and 3rd (Liberty) in EFG%. The last ten meetings between these two teams on this court have averaged 174.6ppg. We expect a high scoring game here and are on the Over.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Three of the four Thursday night match ups this season have gone Under the Total and the average total points scored in those games was 37.5. We expect another grinder on Thursday in this key division battle. Four of the last five meetings between these two NFC South rivals have totaled 47 or fewer points and the average total points scored in those 5 games was 42.5. When playing inside the division, both of these teams tend to play lower scoring games as expected. The average total points scored since the start of last season when TB plays a division opponent was 33.5. The average total points scored since the start of last season when Atlanta plays a division opponent was 41. These teams have combined to play 25 division games since the start of the 2022 season and 16 of those games (64%) have failed to top 40 points. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season scoring just 18.8 PPG and they’ve scored 2 non-offensive TD’s this year so the offensive only scoring numbers are actually worse. They struggle to stay on the field with the 3rd down conversion rate of 26% which is among the worst in the league. TB’s offense has been better scoring wise (24 PPG) but they only average 5.4 YPP which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Bucs have had 2 higher scoring offensive outputs this season vs the Eagles and Commanders who are poor defenses ranking 30th and 31st in the NFL in YPP allowed. In their other 2 games vs Detroit & Denver they scored 27 total points. Atlanta’s defense is solid (7th in YPP allowed at 4.9) and they have allowed 26 or fewer points in every game this season (21 PPG allowed average). Low scoring game here.

#939/940 ASA PLAY ON Under 6.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, Tuesday at 2:32 PM ET - The Astros Framber Valdez squaring off against the Tigers Tarik Skubal sets this one up for a classic pitchers duel.  Valdez is 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA at home this season!  Also, Valdez compiled a 1.65 ERA over the final two months of the regular season and allowed only 33 hits in 60 innings!  As for the Tigers Skubal, he went 18-4 on the season including 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA after the All-Star break!  Also, Skubal went undefeated with a 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts in the month of September.  Both hurlers come into this one in top form and each of them are capable of throwing an absolute gem here.  These two bullpens both rank in the top 4 in the American League this season.  The Tigers hit just .222 their final 6 games of the season.  The Astros, due to scheduling plus one rainout too, have played only 2 games the last 5 days.  This will not help their timing at the plate either and in particular this is true when facing a tough southpaw like Skubal!  This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 in Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, Thursday 1:05 ET -The Royals are starting Michael Wacha and the Nationals going with Patrick Corbin here. Note that Corbin has a high ERA on the season but he often struggles badly on the road but has success at home. If you look at his last 3 home starts he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 9 hits in 18 innings of work! Corbin does it again here at home. Wacha has been strong in 9 of his last 10 starts! In those 9 outings he has allowed a total of only 13 earned runs! The Royals have lost 7 of 9 games and have averaged scoring only 1.9 runs per game during this stretch. The Nationals have lost 8 of 9 games and scored only 1.6 runs per game during this stretch. This is a match-up featuring two starting pitchers likely to produce quality starts and two lineups that are slumping badly. The Nationals have been shutout in 3 straight games in fact! We expect a pitchers duel here and some books are even dropping to an 8 on this total which tells you plenty about this one as well. The expectation is a very low-scoring battle here Thursday in early afternoon action. UNDER is the call in this one

ASA WNBA play on OVER 160.5 Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30PM ET - This O/U number has been adjusted up slightly compared to Game 1 which had an O/U of 158.5. In that game these two teams combined for 197 total points. We don’t expect that many points again as both teams shot well above season standards with the Mercury hitting 37/74 FG’s overall at 50% and 14/27 from the 3PT line or 52%. Minnesota also had a great shooting night at 49% overall and 42% from Deep. The Lynx also made 24/25 free throws. There will be a regression here in both teams shooting, but the pace of play will be high again (143 FGA’s in G1) and they’ll score enough to go over this number. These two teams have combined for 160+ points in 4 of five meetings this season. The Mercury have an EFG% of 50.3%, the Lynx are at 51.8%. Since the Olympic break the Lynx have played outstanding basketball with a 12-2 record their last 14 games and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in the league at 106.6. Phoenix has struggled defensively this entire season (DNR 9th worst) and their only chance to beat this Lynx team is to play up-tempo and outscore them. During the regular season, an average WNBA game would have 136 FGA’s and 164 total points. In other words, all we need is an average game here and we cash the Over.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs - St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total as it landed on 10 runs when the Rockies failed to score in the bottom of the 8th despite a 1st and 3rd no out situation. That game staying under likely is serving to help keep this total lower as, under normal circumstances given this pitching match-up we would have expected even more movement on this total today. It has ticked up a bit but it should have ticked up even more and there is solid value here.  Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals here and he has struggled in his road starts and now pitches at the toughest ballpark in the league from a pitchers standpoint.  Fedde has struggled in 4 of his 5 road starts since the beginning of August.  In those 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings!   The Rockies will have Austin Gomber on the mound here and he has allowed 35 hits in 22.2 innings in his 5 home starts since the All-Star break.  This was on the heels of a June in which he went 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in his 5 starts!  Since then Gomber has been better on the road but not at home as his last 5 home starts clearly show.  Now he faces a Cardinals team that has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 6 victories.  The Cardinals have scored 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games against the Rockies.  They have also enjoyed success against a Colorado bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors for bullpen ERA.  The Cardinals bullpen certainly has been better than the Rockies but, again, pitching at Colorado is a whole different animal.  The St Louis pen hung on yesterday but last season here the Cardinals allowed 6 runs per game and all 3 games in that series at Coors Field totaled more than 10 runs.  The Rockies fell short yesterday but averaged 5.5 runs a game in their last dozen home games prior to that one.  Colorado's slugging percentage at home ranks 5th in the majors this season.  We like this match-up for plenty of runs tonight as favorable weather conditions are expected as well.  With no post-season for either team they are not playing with playoff pressure here and will be relaxed at the plate and we are confident both these pitchers are going to struggle given Fedde's recent road struggles and Gomber's recent home struggles.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 12 to 13 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 159.5 Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - We are getting a bargain price with this Over/Under number and will capitalize with a bigger play on the Over. These two teams produced just 145 total points in game 1 which has impacted today’s number and has bettors on the Under. The facts are that game should have gone Over this number rather easily. The two teams combined for 137 field goal attempts which is around league average for the entire season. WNBA games averaged 163.4 total points per game on 136.6 FGA’s. In Game 1 the Aces started very slow with A’Ja Wilson going 1 for 8 with Las Vegas missing 16 of their 18 field goal attempts. With the slow start these two teams had 80-points at halftime on their way to 160. After 3Q’s these two teams had 129 total points which had them on pace for 172. Then shit hit the fan and the Storm couldn’t buy a basket. Seattle missed all 13 FGA’s in the 4th quarter and only scored 2-points. You read that right, 2-points in an entre quarter. With this being an elimination game, the Storm won’t quietly and will foul late if needed. Seattle is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and the Aces are 4th so we know we will get plenty of possessions in this one. Las Vegas is the 2nd best team in the WNBA in Offensive Net rating, the Storm are 7th. If this is an average paced game, with average shooting, it goes Over the number easily.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this has pitchers' duel written all over it.  Logan Gilbert continues to pile up strikeouts and he also is in top form currently and this has even held true on the road.  In his last two road starts, Gilbert has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 19 batters!  Also, in his only start at Houston this season he allowed just 2 hits in 8 scoreless innings against the Astros!  In looking at the Astros Framber Valdez he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts!  He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 7 outings!  Since the All-Star break he has been incredible with a 6-2 record and a 1.74 ERA and opponents hitting just .153 against him.  Houston is still trying to secure the division and Seattle still has hopes of a Wild Card berth as well.  There is quite a bit of pressure on both clubs in entering this one.  In other words, this will likely play out as a playoff-type game. We expect runs to be at a premium here given the pitching match-up.  Two solid bullpens involved here as well.  Seattle won yesterday's game 6-1 but that one was 1-0 entering the 7th inning.  Seattle ranks 22nd in the majors for batting average on the road.  Houston has struggled with Mariners pitching all season long and has scored an average of only 2.5 runs over the last 10 games between these teams.  We are going with the Under in this one.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 46.5 Points - Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, when you make this wager, we recommend you wait until close to kickoff to bet it as the TV totals have been fluctuating up with public money close to the start of the game. The Chiefs have some injury concerns offensively with their top two running backs out, which prompted the signing of Kareem Hunt to the practice squad. KC will start Samaje Perine who was mainly used as a 3rd down back. The Chiefs are also lacking depth at the WR position with Brown on the IR. Yes, Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, but this will be a tough matchup for KC against a stout Falcons defense. The Falcons are allowing 4.8YPP (8th), 4.1-Yards Per Rush and the 8th fewest passing yards per game. On the other side of the football, Atlanta will need to stick to its bread and butter by using the run to open up the pass. Ball control will be paramount for the Falcons, in order to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands for as little as possible. Atlanta’s offense is averaging a modest 5.7-Yards Per Play through two games, and rank middle of the pack in most offensive categories. The Chiefs defense is better than their overall statistics. The Chiefs have faced two dynamic offenses in the Ravens and Bengals. KC is giving up 386YPG but are better in terms of Yards Per Play at 5.9YPP. The Falcons offense looked good last week against the Eagles after putting up just 10-points against the Steelers in week 1. Philly did not pressure QB Cousins and let him pick them apart late in the game. Kansas City was 3rd in sacks per game in 2023 and 3rd in sack percentage. The Chiefs are 9th in Yards Per Point allowed, the Falcons are 12th. KC is perceived as a high scoring team, but the reality is they were 14th in PPG last season overall, and put up 21.3PPG on the road. Atlanta is better offensively this season with Cousins, but this team averaged just 18.9PPG a year ago.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points - Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Despite scoring only 16 points last Sunday, Detroit went up and down field on the Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Lions tallied 460 yards and crossed midfield 10 times!  They reached the red zone 7 times and only scored 1 TD.  Those yardage numbers attached to an average yards per point efficiency would have put Detroit north of 30 points in that game.  Because of last week’s struggles deep in Tampa territory, the Lions currently rank 28th in the league in red zone conversion rate after ranking 2nd in that stat a year ago.  We expect them to move the ball well again this week vs a poor Arizona defense but look for the Lions to take advantage and put plenty of points on the board Sunday.  Arizona’s offense looks very good early in the season scoring 28 and 41 points in their 2 games this season.  The Cards rank 5th in the NFL averaging over 6 YPP and they are averaging 43 yards per possession which is #1 in the NFL.  Arizona’s defense looked solid last week vs a Rams offense that is depleted beyond belief with their 2 top WR’s out along with most of their offensive line.  A week earlier, the Cards allowed Buffalo to score 34 points on 6.1 YPP.  We see similar results for the Lions in this one.  Last week’s Detroit total was set at the exact same number (currently 51.5) despite playing a TB team that has a better defense than Arizona but is not as explosive on offense.  Last week’s low scoring game sets this one up nicely with a total that is set too low.  Perfect scoring conditions indoors in Phoenix lead to a shootout on Sunday.

#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected.  Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP.  They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st).  The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season.  In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points.  The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB.  Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points.  The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State).  They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game.  Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air.  When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Let’s play Over in this one.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points - Illinois vs Nebraska, Friday at 8 PM ET - It’s the start of Big 10 play for these familiar foes and we look for a low scoring, grinder in Lincoln.  The last 2 seasons these rivals have generated 35 and 27 total points.  Both defenses are very good this season with Nebraska allowing a total of 20 points combined in their 3 games this year while Illinois has allowed 26 combined points in their 3 games.  They each shutdown the good offenses they’ve faced this season with Nebraska giving up just 10 points on 260 yards vs Colorado while Illinois gave up 17 points on 327 yards vs Kansas.  Nebraska looks improved offensively, however they’ve faced some suspect defenses (UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa).  Despite that, the Huskers rank just 56th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In their game vs the Buffs, who do not have a good defense, the Huskers scored 21 offensive points (they had a pick 6 for their 28 points) and just 334 yards.  Freshman QB Raiola has been solid but he now faces a legit defense in his first Big 10 game.  Illinois is in the same boat offensively facing some not so great defensive teams (Eastern Illinois, Kansas, and Central Michigan).  Despite that, the Illini only rank 74th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In one legit game vs Kansas, the Illini scored 16 offensive points (they had a pick 6 to get to 23 points), and they did not reach 300 total yards.  Both offenses are very slow paced with Illinois ranking 121st in seconds per play and Nebraska 115th.  Lots of defense in this one and we grab the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 39 New England Patriots at NY Jets – 8:20 pm ET -Neither team is very explosive in this match up with the Jets averaging just 5.1 yards per play (20th) while the Pats average 4.6YPP (25th). New York is average in pace of play at 1 play run every 29.4 seconds, the Patriots are the 26th slowest paced team at 32.2 seconds. Defensively both are near league average in terms of yards per play allowed with the Jets allowing 5.4YPP, New England gives up 5.1YPP. It’s obvious what these teams want to do offensively. The Patriots want to limit opponents’ possession with their running game and win tight games with their defense. New England rushes 37.5 times per game which is the 3rd highest rush attempt number in the league. Surprisingly, the Jets only rush it 21.5 times per game, but they effectively use short passes as part of their run package. New York is 23rd in yards per pass attempt at 6.4. New England with QB Brissett are averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 122.5 passing yards per game. NY understandably gave up points and yards in the opener against a very good San Francisco offense. Last week the Jets D looked better allowing 5.3YPP to the Titans and 17-points. The Titans offense rates similar to this Pats O which has managed 16 and 20-points in their first two games. New England’s offense was tied with Carolina for the lowest scoring team in the league a year ago at 13.9PPG. New York’s offense is still a work in progress and the defense hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but this is a great opportunity for them to shine on MNF. Last season these two teams produced total points of 20 and 25. They have combined for 39 or less points in 5 of the last six confrontations. New England has played Under in 12 of their last seventeen games overall, the Jets have hit the Under in 11 of their last seventeen.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and the rookie is struggling to adjust to the MLB level.  Things are not getting any easier either as he certainly has not been trending the right way either.  Matthews has allowed 15 earned runs in only 10.1 innings over his last 3 starts.  The Guardians also have a starting pitcher that has strong odds of struggling this evening as well.  Gavin Williams mixes in a quality start every once in a while but that appears unlikely here as he has struggled badly in his last 2 starts with one knocking him out in the first inning and the next one seeing him struggle to make it through 5 innings.  Overall Williams has struggled in 5 of his last 8 starts with 22 earned runs allowed in 23.1 innings over those 5 starts.  Certainly Cleveland has a strong bullpen and a great closer but their closer Emmanuel Clase would be pitching a 3rd straight day if he is called upon here.  Certainly this is doable for him but yet is not something he has done very often this season.  As for the Twins, their bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors and they may be needed early here the way Matthews is going.  Yesterday's game was a 4-3 Cleveland win but the teams combined for 18 hits.  Also, the Twins won 3 of 5 and scored 6 runs per game in the 5-game stretch before yesterday's loss.  The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.8 runs in the 6 wins.  Cleveland has won 6 of 9 at home and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 6 victories.  We get a low total to work with because this ballpark is not known for high-scoring games but because of the pitching match-up and the way both teams have swung the bat a little better of late compared to usual, we feel this is exceptional line value here.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 10 to 11 runs here.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

ASA play on UNDER 46 Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 pm ET - The Falcons were projected to be a contending team in the NFC this season with a stout defense, a veteran QB in Cousins and a young stud running back in Robinson. They didn’t live up to the billing in week 1 but we expect a better showing here, especially defensively. Falcons QB Cousins (coming off a Achilles injury) was very immobile in the opener against the Steelers. He was 16/26 for 155 yards 1 TD/2 INT. The Dirty Birds put up 226 total yards at 4.7 yards per play and 10-points. Much like the Jets w/Rodgers, look for the Falcons to concentrate on the running game with Robinson and protect Cousins with a short passing scheme. Atlanta was good defensively in W1 allowing 4.2YPP, 270 total yards and just 3.3 yards per rush to the Steelers. Philadelphia beat the Packers in the season opener in a high scoring game which has driven this O/U number up. A big reason that the game ended with so many points was due to the unusual number of big plays that resulted in TD’s. There were two scores of over 67-yards and two of 32+. The Eagles allowed 7.4YPP to the Packers as a result of those big hitters. Philly ran it 38 times against the Packers and with wideout Brown expected to miss this game it should be much of the same against the Falcons. We like Under in this one.

#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 39 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Despite both teams getting wins last week, the defenses looked much better than the offenses.  New England scored just 16 points vs the Bengals on only 4.5 YPP.  The Pats stuck to the ground game as we expect they will again with 39 rushing attempts and just 24 pass attempts.  Starting QB Brissett is not a QB that strikes fear in opposing defenses and he passed for only 120 yards on 4.8 yards per attempt.  They were the only team in the NFL last week without a an offensive play that went more than 20 yards.  Now they face a very solid Seattle defense with new HC Macdonald who was the coordinator of the Ravens high end defense the last 2 seasons.  The Pats offense will struggle on Sunday.  Seattle’s offense put up 26 points last week but barely averaged 5.0 YPP.  Starting RB Walker accounted for more than one-third of Seattle’s entire offense last week and it looks like he won’t play on Sunday due to an oblique injury.  That’s a big loss for this offense that also prefers to run the ball (33 rush attempts / 25 pass attempts).  New England’s defense is high level.  They completely shut down Cincy’s offense and Joe Burrow (154 yards passing) last week giving up just 10 points on 224 total yards.  New England is 10-6 to the Under last 2 years at home with average total points scored just 36.  This should be an ugly offensive game and we don’t project either team to reach 20 points.  Take the Under

ASA WNBA play on Over 171.5 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 7:30 PM ET - The Wings are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. Their atrocious defense will be even worse tonight against the Storm. Dallas allows 1.135-points per possession, most in the WNBA a historically high number. In comparison, the next worse defense is the Indiana Fever who allow 1.091PPP. While Seattle is much better defensively, both are relatively even offensively with the Storm owning an Offensive Net rating of 101.9 compared to the Wings at 101.5. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 13 of their last eighteen games and 6 straight. Seattle has scored 85+ points in 5 of their last seven games and have put up 92+ in all three meetings with the Wings this season. The Over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Lastly, we know we will get a fast paced game here with a ton of possessions as the Storm rank 4th in pace, the Wings are 1st. Bet the Over.

ASA play on UNDER 49 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM ET - Miami has some questions on offense with their top two RB’s likely out (Mostert & Achane). On the other side of the football Miami could have problems pressuring Allen and the Bills with LB Bradley Chubb out and LB Jaelan Phillips less than 100%. Both defenses allowed less than 300 total yards last week against potentially explosive offenses of the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Bills new offensive philosophy is run heavy as we saw in week 1 as they attempted 23 passes and 33 runs in the game against the Cardinals. Last week’s game against the Cardinals was a misleading final as 21 of the combined 62 points came with under 9:00 minutes to play in the game. Arizona averaged 9.6 yards per point, an unusually low number based on league average. The Bills averaged a point scored every 10.4 yards gained which is also significantly better than the 14-yards per point they averaged last season. Both teams played slow last week at 18th and 21st in pace of play. Last year these same two teams were 24th and 26th in POP.  The trend when these rivals met is high scoring games in Buffalo and low scoring affairs in Miami. The last three meetings on this field between these two teams resulted in 35, 40 and 35 total points. We expect a defensive battle and like Under the Total.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 178.5 NY Liberty at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - The betting indicators on this game have us on the Under with more tickets bet on the Over, yet more money is on Under. The public has jumped in on the Over here as these two teams just met on Tuesday and produced 196 total points. There were a few outliers in that game though as the Liberty shot 54% overall and 55% from beyond the arc which are both well above season averages of 45% and 35%. Dallas hit 47% overall which is above their season average of 45% and somewhat surprising considering the Liberty have the 2nd best FG% defense at .43% allowed. An average WNBA game has 137 field goal attempts which results in 164 total points. In the game the other day the field goal attempts were 142 so not drastically higher than league average, yet they scored 196-points. The two previous games between these two teams this season resulted in 168 and 150 total points. We don’t expect these teams to shoot as well again tonight which will keep this game from going Over the number. UNDER is the call here.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Angels are surprisingly showing some life again recently and face another pitcher they should hit here while the Twins really got their sticks going last night. We look for plenty of runs here.  The Angels have gone 6-6 last dozen games and scored 4.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Twins will build off yesterday's 10-5 win and remember a lot of recent struggles at the plate also came on a recent 7-game road trip preceding this homestand.  Minnesota can turn it around at the plate now that they are here at home for a bit again.  The Twins will take advantage of facing Jack Kochanowicz here.  The right-hander has seen opponents hit .315 against him this season and he does not register many strikeouts!  As for Zebby Matthews, the Twins right-hander has been hit at a .323 average this season and we can see this turning into another high-scoring battle just like yesterday.  Both bullpens are mediocre, not great, and both teams had double digits in hits yesterday and the Angels also had 6 runs on 9 hits in Monday's game.  Over is the call in this one early Wednesday evening.

ASA play on UNDER 43.5 NY Jets @ San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20 PM ET - The Niners were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL last season at 28.6ppg. On average it took them 13.9 yards/gained to score 1pt. BUT, they faced the 6th easiest schedule against subpar defenses. Late in the season last year the 49ers managed just 17pts versus a similar defense to the Jets in the Ravens D. When New York has the football, it should be a run first approach with RB Hall, a rebuilt O-line and a mindset to protect QB Rodgers in his first game since his injury last year. The Jets still managed 4.2 yards per rush last season when teams stacked the line of scrimmage against them when they didn’t have a QB. The Niners are susceptible to the run as they allowed 4.3YPR last season, 21st most in the NFL. In their 3 playoff games (when it mattered) the 49ers gave up 130, 182 and 136 rushing yards to the Chiefs, Lions & Packers. New York is going to be much better offensively this season with Rodgers than they were last season, but it’s going to be tough sledding in the opener against this San Fran D. SF gave up just 18.8ppg last season, the 4th fewest in the NFL. The Niners were 3rd in Opponents Points per Play at .300. The 49ers red zone D was also one of the best in the league allowing 1.6 TD’s per game. San Fran gave up less than 320ypg last season and 5.1-yards per play, both top 10 numbers. The Jets defense on paper might be the best in the NFL this season. They finished last season 3rd in overall DVOA. NY allowed less than 21ppg and were #1 in the league allowing 4.6 yards per play. The big names in this game have the number set higher than it should be for the public bettors. The Under trends on prime time TV games continues here.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Under 41.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The QB positions on both sides are not ideal right now.  Pittsburgh planned to start Russell Wilson but he has a lingering calf issue.  If he plays he won’t be 100% and if he doesn’t it’s inaccurate Justin Fields who has a career completion percentage of barely 60%.  Atlanta plans to start Kirk Cousins who is coming off an achilles injury and hasn’t played since last October.  We don’t expect Cousins to be successful through the air here with zero game time with his new WR’s.  On the other side of the ball, we project both Pittsburgh and Atlanta to be the strengths of each team.  Atlanta has added key pieces with safety Simmons and edge rusher Judon bolstering an already top 10 defense in YPG, YPP, and PPG.  The Birds also have a new HC Morris who is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL so we look for a very good stop unit in Atlanta this season.  Pittsburgh will struggle big time on offense in this game.  The Steelers played both Wilson & Fields quite a bit in the pre-season yet they only scored a total of 32 points in 3 games.  Atlanta averaged just 19 PPG last season (26th in the NFL) and will most likely rely heavily on the run in order to protect Cousins early in the season.  Pittsburgh averaged just 18 PPG so we have 2 bottom 7 scoring offenses from last season going at it here.  Steeler games averaged 38 total points last year and Atlanta games averaged 41 total points.  Pittsburgh has been a huge money maker playing Unders in their road games with a 50-20 record to the Under the last 9 years.  Low scoring game here.

ASA play on OVER 48.5 Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Friday 8:20 PM ET (Brazil) - We are typically reluctant to play Overs on prime-time TV games but will make an exception here. These two teams are much better on one side of the football than the other and it starts with the offenses for both teams. When it comes to DVOA rankings the Packers had the 6th best offense in the NFL a year ago, the Eagles were 9th. The Packers averaged 5.7PPG on offense good for 6th best, the Eagles ranked 13th in Yards Per Play at 5.4. Both teams had explosive offenses. It took Philadelphia on average 14.3 yards gained per point (7th), Green Bay averaged 145.3YPPT (11th). On the defensive side of the football both teams struggled. The Eagles were 4th from the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA, the Packers weren’t much better ranking 27th. Philadelphia gave up 25.6PPG on the season, while Green Bay allowed 21.4PPG. The Packers numbers are slightly better than they should be as they faced 12 opponents last season that ranked in the bottom half of the league in total offense. The Eagles allowed 30+ points in 5 of their last eight games last season and Green Bay with QB Love scored 30+ in 3 of their last five games. We expect both teams to get into the mid-to-high 20’s in this game which will push this Over the number.

ASA play on UNDER 47.5 Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship which the Chiefs won 17-10. That game had an O/U of 44 with the Under cashing easily. In that game, the Ravens managed 336 total yards and 6.3YPP. They dominated time of possession 37:30 compared to the Chiefs 22:30, but three turnovers to zero doomed the Ravens chances. Kansas City had a tough time moving the ball against this Ravens defense with 319-total yards of offense at 4.5YPP. While both of these offenses get most of the attention, it’s the defenses that really set them apart from the rest of the league. Baltimore was 1st in defensive DVOA a year ago, KC was 7th. The Ravens allowed just 4.6YPP last season, the 2nd lowest number in the league behind the Jets. The Chiefs D gave up only 4.8PPP which ranked 5th. Teams had a very hard time sustaining drives against both teams with the Chiefs allowing the 5th lowest 3rd down conversion percentage at 35.53%, the Ravens ranked 9th at 36.52%. On average it took teams 18.4 yards gained to score 1-points against Baltimore which was best in the NFL. Kansas City wasn’t far behind that at 17.6-Yards Per Point. Another misconception about the Chiefs is that they are an Over team, when in fact they have stayed Under in 15 of their last 20 regular season home games, including 7 straight. KC is Under at home against the AFC in 9 of their last 10. The Ravens have stayed Under in 5 of their last 7 regular season road games and 7 of their last 11. There will be a lot of noise surrounding the two starting QB’s here in Jackson/Mahomes and the offenses but don’t buy into it and side with the defenses and Under.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - Diamondbacks games continue to go over the total and we are going to take advantage of a low number here. Don't let the pitching match-up keep you away from this one. Last night Zac Gallen threw 6 innings without allowing a single hit. The final score still ended up being 6-4. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well and the Giants should get to Arizona starter Merrill Kelly here as well. That makes this one a perfect set-up for an over. Kelly has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 straight starts plus he has allowed 6 homers in those 3 outings. The Giants 4 runs came late in the game yesterday but they can do damage early today in this one and then also get to that struggling Diamondbacks bullpen as the game goes on. Certainly Blake Snell has been pitching so well for the Giants outside of command issues in a recent start at Seattle. However, the Diamondbacks did get to him for 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season and they have been one of hottest hitting teams in the majors in the 2nd half of the season. Their surge continues here and the hot run of overs in Arizona's games continues to surge as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 174.5 LA Sparks at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This line opened at 170 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 174.5 on the total. With the public “all over” the Caitlyn Clark/Fever (pun intended) we will grab the value and play Under. The average total points scored in a WNBA game this season is slightly more than 163. Indiana is one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 83.8PPG but the Sparks score the 3rd fewest at 78.8PPG. The Fever have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.054PPP, but the Sparks OEFF is .989 or second to last in the W. Indiana is not known for their defense, with an overall Net rating of 106.8 but since the Olympic break they been significantly better with a DNR of 101.9. Los Angeles has been slightly better defensively since the break also. Indiana is playing lights-out with a 6-1 SU record since the break and have clawed back into playoff contention. They have played 4 of their last five on the road, two straight away, and may relax a little tonight with a big game on deck versus Minnesota. LA is playing for the #1 pick in the draft and just trying to get through the season. The Spark have scored 74 or less points in 5 of their last eight games. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they have combined for 170 and 151 total points. We like the UNDER in this one.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Definitely not a match-up of two powerhouse teams here but this has actually worked in our favor in terms of keeping this total low.  The total has dropped to an 8 in a lot of books as of 11 AM central time and we are happy to get involved with an over here as this match-up involves two starting pitchers likely to struggle.  Patrick Corbin has shown some better results of late but he has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule.  When Corbin comes up with some better starts it tends to be at home.  His road outings, on the other hand, leave a lot to be desired!  Corbin is 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in his 13 road starts this season.  The Washington left-hander likely to get hit hard at Miami here. The Marlins also have a pitcher going that is likely to get hit hard.  Max Meyer gets the ball for Miami tonight and he went 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA in his 6 starts in August and opponents hit over .300 against him!  The Nationals have not scored well in B2B losses but this followed a 9 game stretch where they went 5-4 and scored 4.4 runs a game and they are facing weaker pitching here.  The Marlins have won 5 of 8 games and scored 5.5 runs per game in this 8-game stretch.  Also, 8 of Miami's last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 28 of 40 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.9 runs in the last 36 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Dodgers had won 10 of 12 games prior to yesterday's 14-3 loss here and they have averaged scoring 6.1 runs in their last 11 games. The Dodgers start Jack Flaherty here and he has mostly good numbers since coming to LA from the Tigers.  We say "mostly" because he just allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in 4 starts and 3 of those 4 starts were at home! Now he is on the road and, keep in mind, facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   As for the Arizona starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, he has made 4 starts since his return.  One of those was against one of the weakest hitting teams (Miami) in the majors and he allowed only 1 earned run but 6 hits in 5 innings.  In the other 3 starts since he returned he allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings!  He just allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets and he faces another very tough challenge here.  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL this season!  Two very solid hitting teams and also the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks 20th in the majors and the runs keep rolling in at Chase Field.  Overall, 25 of the last 34 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here! Also, 15 of the last 18 Diamondbacks home games have totaled at least 9 runs and 13 of those 15 got to 10+ runs!  Over is the call in this one Monday afternoon.

#209/210 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Notre Dame vs Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Defenses should dominate here especially in the trenches.  Notre Dame and A&M have veteran defensive lines and the weak spot of each opposing offense in on the line.  Notre Dame is banged up on the offensive line and will not start a single upper classmen.  Two freshmen will start on the left side of the line and the total number of career college starts for this group is less than 10!  They are facing a veteran A&M defensive line that most have ranked in the top 5 nationally.  New Irish QB Leonard will be running for his life on Saturday and we don’t see any help from Notre Dame’s rushing attack.  Last year’s leading rusher Estime (1,300 yards) is gone and his “green” offensive line will be facing a defense that finished in the top 15 in rushing YPG and YPC allowed.  On the other side, A&M’s offense will also have problems here vs an Irish defense we have rated in the top 10 entering the season.  They also have a top 10 defensive line facing an Aggie offensive front that struggled last season and has 3 new starters this year.  A&M starting QB Wiegman was injured early last season and has only started 8 games in his career.  Both offenses have new OC’s so each are implementing a new system which can take some time to perfect.  The head coaches in this game, Elko for A&M and Freeman for ND, are both defensive minded.  From camp reports both defenses are well ahead of the offenses coming into this game and we look for low scoring, grinder here.  Take the Under.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165.5 Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET  - Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. Las Vegas is the fastest paced team for the overall season, but in their last six games after the Olympic break they rank 9th in pace of play. They are averaging 7 less PPG in their last six games compared to their season average too. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they combined for 162 and 154 total points. Combined in the last ten games for each of these two teams they have only gone Over in 6 of 20 games. The value in the number dictates and Under wager here.

ASA play on UNDER 56.5 Western Michigan at Wisconsin, 9 PM ET - The number on this game opened slightly higher at 56.5 and has since moved down in some books to a current line of 56. That spread on this game is 24 which means the oddsmakers are projecting Wisconsin to score 40 and Western Michigan 16. We don’t think either team gets to that number based on last season’s results. Wisconsin returns 71% of their defensive production from a unit last season that allowed 344YPG (35th), 5.0YPP (26th) and 20.2PPG (19th). This Badgers defense held 7 opponents to 17 or less points in 2023. Offensively the Badgers will rely on their running game which averaged 4.6YPR last season (38th) and 160RYPG (60th). Wisconsin had the 22nd rated 3rd down conversion percentage in college football last season which means extended drives for the Badgers offense. Wisconsin did not score 40+ points in a game last season and averaged 23.5PPG (87th) and lacked big plays with an offense that averaged 5.2YPP (79th). UW averaged just 6.1YPP passing which ranked 117th. Western Michigan returns 7 starters from last season’s defense and added a few power conference transfers. This Bronco defense was not very good a season ago, ranking 100th or worse in several key categories, but should be improved this season with the returning experience. Offensively we don’t see this Bronco putting up many points in this opener. WMU was 92nd in scoring a year ago at 22.6PPG, 107th in YPP at 4.8 and lacked explosiveness either running or passing. Clearly the dominant team in this matchup is the Badgers and we are betting their 5-1 home Under streak continues here.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 27 of 36 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 32 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Mets had won 8 of 13 games prior to yesterday's 8-5 loss and they have averaged 5 runs during this stretch. The Mets start David Peterson here and the left-hander does have great numbers on the season and in recent outings.  One of the keys however is that he has faced a lot of weaker teams quite often this season including the A's plus the Marlins multiple times and the Nationals 3 times.  Give him some credit for a solid overall season but keep in mind facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   Also, both these bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them only at mid-level in the majors.  As for the Arizona starter, Ryne Nelson is off of B2B quality starts on the road but has a 4.95 ERA in his home starts this season.  Also, the Mets have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL in road games this season!  Two solid hitting teams and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  22 of the last 30 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here!  Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

ASA play on UNDER 157.5 Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - These teams met in Atlanta on August 16th, fresh off the Olympic break, with the Dream winning 83-81 and the Over 156.5 cashing. The pace of play was slower as we expect to be the case in this game, but both teams shot above season standards resulting in 164 total points. In the only other meeting this season in Seattle these two combined for 151 points. Seattle has struggled offensively since the break with the second-to-last Offensive Net Rating in the W at 93.1, while scoring just 77.8PPG. Seattle is one of the better defensive teams in the league ranking 4th in DNR while giving up just 78.3PPG. Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings and we are betting that trend continues.

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Orioles Cole Irvin just made his first appearance on the mound in 3 weeks and his first start in nearly 2 months.  It was a shaky outing for him last week and he was unable to make it out of the 5th inning. In his last 7 starts Irvin has allowed 50 hits in 34.1 innings!  He has been very hittable and also has been charged with 16 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 4 starts!   Now Irvin has to face the Dodgers and he is on the road for this one.   LA is expected to have Jack Flaherty on the mound in this one.  He is off a solid start versus the Mariners but he gave up 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 4 homers!) in 10.2 innings spanning his two starts before that one against Seattle.  Flaherty now has to face one of the top hitting teams in the majors.  The Orioles have the #1 slugging percentage in the majors this season!  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL. The LA bullpen is solid but the Orioles are middle of the pack at best.  Baltimore did not hit well at all in their Sunday night loss and we expect them to bounce back strong here.  This Orioles team has scored 5.3 runs per game on the road this season and have maintained that pace in their 19 road games since the All-Star break as well.  The Dodgers have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 18 home games.  We look for these two lineups to be the story in this one as these two teams loaded with potent hitters put on a show here at Dodger Stadium in the opener.  Per our computer math, high probability for a range of 10 to 12 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday night.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 180.5 Las Vegas Storm at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - This is a big number, but we expect enough points by both teams to eclipse this O/U. In two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 176 and 189 total points. Las Vegas themselves scored a combined 199 in the two games. The Aces are the highest scoring team in the league at 87.3PPG. They are also the fastest paced team in the W. Las Vegas held the top spot in the league last season in Defensive Net Rating at 97.7, but this season they rank 5th in DNR at 100.7. The Aces are giving up 82.9PPG on the season (7th most) after allowing 80.3PPG in 2023. The Wings defense is the worst in the league in too many categories to list. Dallas is allowing 90.2PPG, have the 12th rated FG% defense as foes hit 47.3% against them. The Wings are last in the W in Defensive Net Rating at 110.5. Dallas has allowed over 100+ points in 5 of their last ten games and surrendered 110 to the Sparks in their last game. L.A. is one of the worst offensive teams in the league so what does that mean Vegas will score. Lastly, both teams prefer to play fast with the Aces ranking 1st in pace of play, the Wings are 3rd. In the two meetings this season both games were well above the league average in field goal attempts. Don’t be intimidated by the big number and bet OVER!

ASA top play on UNDER 166.5 New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - We will get a slower pace in this game which will lead to an Under. The Mercury are the 9th slowest paced team in the WNBA, the Liberty are 8th slowest. Since coming back from the All-Star break the Mercury have played especially slow, ranking last in the league. In their last five games the Mercury have been much better defensively with a Net rating of 99.2 which is significantly better than their season number to 104.4. The Liberty have the 2nd best Defensive Net rating on the season of 94.2 and have been even better after the break at 86.7. Phoenix hold opponents to 43% shooting (5th best) in the W, the Liberty hold foes to 42% shooting (3rd). These two teams rely heavily on their interior scoring but both teams have size and can nullify the others advantage. The Liberty have allowed 64 or less points in 5 straight games. New York has played Under in 9 of fourteen road games this season. Phoenix has stayed Under at home in 3 of their last four games and 6 of the last ten on this court. In mid-June these two teams met on this floor and produced 192 total points but both teams shot well above expectations. We will grab the added line value after the move and bet Under.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 4 PM ET - This game is going to be a shootout between a pair of teams that don’t play any defense. Dallas allows 1.123-points per possession this season, the most in the league. LA isn’t much better allowing 1.071PPP which ranks 10th. Teams shoot on average 47% against the Wings (12th) and 46% against the Sparks (11th). These two teams also rank second-to-last and last in the W in points allowed in the paint which translates to easy scores by opponents. Dallas gives up over 90PPG, the Spark allows over 85PPG. Dallas is coming off three straight games against two of the best defensive teams in the W (NY and Connecticut) so facing this Sparks defense will be a welcomed relief. LA had a pair of lower scoring games against Las Vegas and the Sun who are also top tier defenses. In their most recent game against the Mystics the two teams combined for just 154 points. There were 148 field goal attempts in the game, which is significantly more than the league average of 136. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league, LA is 5th so we know there will be plenty of possessions for this game to get into the 170’s. We call for the Over here.

ASA play on UNDER 55.5 SMU at Nevada, Saturday, 8 PM ET - Nevada won just 2 games a season ago and has a futures market of 2.5 wins this season. That alone tells us just how bad this team will be again in 2024. The Wolfpack have many deficiencies including an offense that averaged just 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th) last season. They return starting QB Lewis but that’s not a great thing considering he threw for just 1,313 yards last season with 2 TD’s to 6 INT’s and had a passer rating of 33.3. The Wolfpack will rely on their running game with two returning starters in the backfield. This Nevada offense produced 14 or less points in 6 games a year ago and our projections have them scoring around that number here. SMU has 8 starters returning on offense that scored 36.4PPG a year ago (10th) and averaged 446YPG (18th). But they weren’t necessarily a big play offense ranking 37th in Yards Per Play at 6.0. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th) and will use their advantage in the trenches against a Wolfpack defense that had problems stopping the run a year ago. SMU allowed just 19.2PPG a season ago while allowing just 4.5YPP (7th). Nevada will be better defensively with new coach Jeff Choate, but the Pack will struggle to score. SMU has no reason to run the score up late in this game and will look to stay healthy. It all adds up to an UNDER bet.

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON Under 55.5 Points – Florida State vs Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We expect both offenses to run the ball a lot in this game which will keep the clock running and shorten the game.  FSU averaged 32.8 PPG last season but we expect a decent drop off this year, especially early in the season.  That’s because the Noles lost nearly all of their production from last year and will rely on transfers at the skill positions learning a new system.  Their new QB is DJ Uiagalelei who had previous stops at Clemson and Oregon State.  He’s not overly accurate, completing only 57% of his passes last year which ranked him outside the top 90.  He’s working with 2 transfer receivers from Alabama and LSU who logged very little time last season.  HC Norvell has said he wants to rely on the running game more this season and we expect that here.  Georgia Tech loves to run the ball.  They led the ACC in rushing last season and they averaged nearly 40 carries per game.  They return 4 starters on the offensive line, their mobile QB King is back and their top RB returns.  More of the same this year for Tech as they keep it on the ground.  They’ll be facing an FSU defense that allowed less than 20 PPG a year ago and while they did lose some key defenders, they’ve recruited very well (and some key transfer portal additions on defense) so we don’t look for much of a drop off on that side of the ball.  Tech’s defense was not good a year ago.  They did upgrade at defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci from Duke who had the Blue Devils in the top 20 in scoring defense last year.  This game is in Ireland and the long travel hasn’t helped the offenses in past games played here.  In fact, there have been 4 games played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin and the average points scored in those games has been 48.8.  Under is our lean on Saturday.  

ASA play on UNDER 168 Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30 PM ET - These two Western Conference contenders just met in Vegas on Wednesday night with the Lynx winning 98-87 as a 7-point dog. The game eclipsed the O/U number of 167.5. The first question you need to ask yourself is “why did the oddsmakers open this game with the same O/U when they just combined for 186 total points”? The total field goal attempts in that game was 135 which is below the league average of 137.4. The average total points scored in WNBA games this season is 163.4PPG. The reason for the higher output was insanely good shooting by the Lynx who hit 59% of their FG attempts (38/64) and made 11 of 19 3-pointers for 58%. Both of those numbers are well above the Lynx season averages of .46% oval and .39% from 3. Las Vegas shot above expectations too by going 33/71 from the field (46%) and 13 of 30 from Deep for 43%. Those numbers are unsustainable in this back-to-back setting between these two rivals. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the W in defensive efficiency allowing .956-points per possession. The Aces are 5th allowing 1.022PPP. Minnesota is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and will want to dictate tempo here on their home court. The last time these two teams met in Minny they produced just 146 total points. The Aces have stayed Under in 3 of their last four on the road. The Lynx have stayed Under in 7 of their last ten at home. In this quick rematch we like a defensive battle and low scoring game.

ASA NFLx play on UNDER 38 Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7:30 PM ET - The Unders in the preseason have certainly been cashing at an extremely high rate (26-9), but that’s not our reason for backing an Under wager on this game. This number opened 34.5 and was quickly bet up to 37.5 when Tampa Bay announced they would start QB Mayfield along with other starters. Miami on the other hand has said they will sit starters in this game. The Dolphins offense has produced 20 and 13 points in their two preseason games thus far, while allowing just 19 total points. The Bucs have put up 17 and 7-points in their exhibition games and allowed 14 and 20 points respectively. The backup QB’s for both teams have struggled in the preseason so don’t expect big plays or points as the game progresses. Miami’s 2nd/3rd string QB’s have completed less than 50% of their attempts for less than 5-yards per completion. Combined those two QB’s (Thompson & White) have 1 TD and 1 INT this preseason. Tampa Bay’s backup QB’s haven’t been much better with Kyle Trask and John Wolford throwing just 1 TD and 1 INT in their two games of action. The Dolphins offense is one of the best in the league when their starters are on the field but that won’t be the case here. Even if the Bucs play their starters for a few series, this offense was 18th in Yards Per Point a season ago and averaged just 21.2PPG (18th). Grab the value with an Under wager here.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 23 of 31 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 27 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  Boston has won 6 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this 10-game stretch!  The Red Sox are off a 4-1 win but, prior to this, 20 of 29 Boston games reached double digits in runs scored and we expect a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Red Sox start Brayan Bello.  The right-hander has a 5.28 ERA at home this season with opponents hitting .286 against him there.  Arizona's Ryne Nelson is off of a quality start on the road but this followed allowing 4 earned runs and being hit hard in each of his two road starts prior to that one.  Both bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the league.  Also, these are 2 of the top 3 teams in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days.  Two hot lineups and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  9 of 12 games at Fenway Park since the A/S break totaled at least 10 runs and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here as that trend continues!  Over is the call in this one Friday night.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Under 34.5 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Unders have been cashing at an incredible rate thus far in the NFLX with 26 Unders and just 6 Overs through 32 games.  The average total points scored thus far in the pre-season is 31 and only 3 of the 32 games have reached 40 points.  We see another low scoring affair here.  The Bengals will sit their starters here including all QB Burrow and all of his key weapons.  Cincy’s back up QB Browning is injured and will most likely sit, leaving it up to 3rd stringer Woodside and 4th string rookie Lombardi to get all the action on Thursday.  So far in the pre-season those 2 QB’s have combined to attempt 45 passes with 1 TD and 2 picks.  The Bengals offense has shown zero signs of life with their back ups in the game scoring just 10 points total in 2 games when the starters were on the bench.  Indy will play their starters here including QB Richardson but the reports on him have not been positive in camp.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Tuesday and word is Richardson was terrible struggling with his accuracy which is not a huge surprise.  After the starters exit, don’t be surprised if the Colts bypass back up QB Flacco in this game to look closer at Ehlinger, Slovis, and Bean who are battling for the 3rd spot.  They’ll need to cut at least 2 QB’s (or put them on the practice squad) after this game so they’ll need to see a lot of reps here to make that final decision.  We see both teams struggling offensively which leads to another Under on Thursday night.

ASA play on UNDER 176.5 Dallas Wings at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is the second meeting between these two teams in consecutive games. New York won on Tuesday 94-74 as a 14-point favorite with the Under cashing as the game stayed below 171.5-points. Dallas shot 38% on 66 field goal attempts against a Liberty defense that is one of the best in the league. New York holds opponents to an average of 42% shooting and give up just 76.1PPG. The Wings are averaging 82PPG on the season and shoot .44%. New York is the most efficient offense in the W at 1.104-points per possession but they play at a slower tempo, averaging 78.3 possessions per game. Dallas is the worst defensive team in the league on the season with a Defensive Net Rating of 110.1. The Wings rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating and average 1.019-points per possession. The average number of field goal attempts per game in the W is 136.2. In the game on Tuesday these two teams combined for 140, slightly more than the league average. New York has a huge game on deck against Connecticut so expect them to go deeper into their bench and keep this game from turning into a shootout which favors the Wings. The Liberty have played 4 sets of back-to-backs against the same team and in three of those situations they scored less points in the second game. NY has a strong Over record this season at home, but most of those Totals were less than 170-points. In fact, the Liberty have had just to O/U’s this season on their home court of 170 or better and both have stayed Under.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8!  Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks.  But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home.  This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them.  Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch.  The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win.  Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound.  He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts.  Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 31.5 Points - NY Jets at Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We were considering a play on the Panthers here, but decided the Over was the better option. We expect the Panthers to rally in Week 2 of the preseason after a humiliating loss in Week 1 to the Patriots. Carolina managed just 7 first downs, 151 total yards of offense and kicked a field goal with under 2 minutes to play for their only score. The Panthers brought in help for the offensive line and need to find some continuity with QB Bryce Young so expect more game action here for the starters. This team was horrendous last season, and it showed in W1 where they sat 33 starters, so reports are they are treating this game differently. In fact, several fights have broken out in the joint practices with the Jets this week. New York had a similar approach in their preseason opener by sitting most starters to evaluate rookies and reserves. The Jets won’t jeopardize QB Rodgers in the preseason, but they do have a viable option with vet Tyrod Taylor. Taylor played in just two series last week and should get more reps in W2. New York’s offense did manage 13 FD’s against the Commanders and 292-total yards of offense in scoring 20-points. This week they face a Panthers defense that gave up 16 FD’s and 274 yards to a lower-tier Patriots offense. The Jets defense gave up 17-points to a below average Washington offense last week and 331 total yards. There has been an over-adjustment to this O/U number based on the Panthers results last week. Preseason games involving a team that scored 10 or less points in the previous game are 79-57 to the Over in the past 13+ seasons. Those teams that struggled offensively have bounced back with 20+ PPG in their next game.

ASA top play on UNDER 160.5 Chicago Sky at LA Sparks, 5 PM ET - We will put our O/U hot streak on the line tonight with the Under in this WNBA East vs. West showdown between the Sky and Sparks. These are two of the worst offenses in the W with the Sky ranking 8th in Net Rating, the Sparks are 11th out of twelve teams. When it comes to points per 100 possessions the Sky average just 1.001PPP (9th), while the Sparks average .999PPP (10th). Neither team shoots well either with the Sky holding an EFG% of .457, the Sparks EFG% is .483, both in the bottom third of the league. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in Pace of play so we can expect a slow deliberate tempo by each team. Scoring is going to be especially difficult for both teams as they are missing several of their top scorers. LA is without 3 of their top seven scorers and will have a tough time reaching their season average of 79PPG. Chicago is without Chennedy Carter (illness) who is leading their team in scoring at 17.2PPG and recently traded away Mabrey who was scoring 14.1PPG. Chicago is averaging 79.3PPG on the year and our model has them scoring less than that in this game. The only other meeting between these two teams was back in May but they only managed 156 points in that game. Bet UNDER here.

#200005/200006 ASA PLAY ON Under 3.5 Goals – Ipswich Town vs Liverpool, Saturday at 7:30 AM ET - Goals likely tough to come by. Just like we saw in last night's Premier League opener - a 1-0 final on a late goal - we could be in for another similar battle here. Ipswich Town is just back up to the Premier League after 2 decades in the lower levels. They are thrilled, they are at home and they are well-managed. Ipswich Town will have a good game plan in place to hang around in this one and keep the match tight and hard-fought. Liverpool has a new manager now and we expect some early season growing pains and the club also does not look at potent as it did in recent seasons when you look at this roster. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from the host leading to a rather tight game with fewer scoring chances than one might expect if this match was in mid-season. We will take the under in this one.

ASA top play on OVER 161 Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings, 9:30 PM ET - The Wings do one thing really well and that’s give up points. Dallas allows 89.7PPG on the season with opponents shooting .471% against them. They allow 1.120-points per possession which is also the most in the league. The Wings get destroyed in the paint by opponents, allowing 42.1PPG in the lane which is +5.5 more points than the 11th ranked team in the W. The Sun are the 3rd most efficient offense in the WNBA at 1.059-points per possession and score 37.4PPG in the paint. The Sun have one of the best defenses in the league, but they are missing Carrington who is their best perimeter defender. That’s not great news for the Sun considering they must stop PG Ogunbowale, the Wings best player, who is averaging 22.25PPG, 3rd most in the league. Connecticut will get a boost offensively with the addition of Marina Mabrey who comes over from the Sky and is averaging 14PPG. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and will need to score in transition against this Sun defense. The Sun are going to score no matter against a Wings defense that has allowed over 90-points in 7 of their last ten games. The bet here is OVER!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 158 - Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - We expect both teams to be a bit rusty offensively after the Olympic break and with a projected total field goal attempts of 160 we don’t see this game getting to 158+ points. These two teams met in early July and combined for 141 total points. There were 160 FGA’s in the game and both teams shot below 42%. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the league with a Defensive Net Rating of 93.7 while giving up 75.6PPG. The Lynx are also the second slowest paced team in the W at 94.79 possessions per game. The Lynx allow .951-points per possession. Offensively the Lynx average 1.028-points per possession which ranks them 7th out of 12 teams. Washington started the season 0-12, but have won 6 of their last seven games. They get three starters back from injury here and will be a better defensive team with the additions of Sykes, Samuelson and Austin. While the return of those players is great news for the Mystic it should also lead to an adjustment period offensively with the rest of the roster. The Mystic are already one of the worst offenses in the league averaging just .998PPP and 79.3PPG. Washington is 9th in the W in shooting at 43%, 10th in made FG’s and 9th in field goal attempts per game. Minnesota is average in several offensive key categories and won’t put up a big number here against a Mystics defense that should be better with key players returning. We like UNDER here.

#401/402 ASA PLAY ON Under 36 Points - Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Neither offense looked good in their preseason opener with the Eagles putting up just 16 points on 3.3 YPP vs Baltimore. The Pats scored 17 points on just 4.3 YPP in their win over Carolina last week. Both defenses, on the other hand, looked very good in their preseason games last week with Philly holding Baltimore to 13 points on 3.4 YPPG & New England limiting Carolina to 3 points on 2.9 YPP. We don’t see either team doing much offensively in this game. As of this writing, the Eagles haven’t said much about who is going to play but we can assume starting QB Hurts will not. He’s coming off an injury plagued 2023/24 season and head coach Sirianni kept him on the sidelines the entire preseason last year. Backup QB Kenny Pickett played a lot last week so we wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles gave 3rd stringer McKee (played 3 series last week) and 4th stringer Grier (didn’t play last week) some more run on Thursday. The Pats gave Bailey Zappe the most snaps at QB last week and we would anticipate rookies Maye & Milton to play more this week. These teams were involved in a joint practice on Tuesday and the defenses dominated. The 4 New England QB’s had 48 drop backs vs the Eagles on Tuesday and were sacked a whopping 10 times. Not surprising as the Pats offensive line is banged up and not a strong point. On the other side, Philadelphia starting QB Hurts didn’t get many opportunities from a clean pocket with the New England defensive front getting solid pressure throughout the day. Hurts was sacked 7 times in the live 11 vs 11’s on that Tuesday practice vs New England. With both teams most likely leaning on inexperienced QB’s on Thursday night, we look for the defenses to dominate. Under is the call.

ASA play on UNDER 38 Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 1 PM ET - We expect a low scoring game between these two teams and feel this number of 37 won’t be threatened. The Broncos made the decision to go young at QB and dumped veteran Russell Wilson in the offseason. They drafted Bo Nix and brought in Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. In this preseason opener we doubt the play calling will be very aggressive, nor do we expect many explosive plays from this Bronco’s offense. Denver was one of the slowest paced teams in the league a year ago and also ranked 25th in Yards Per Play. The Broncos were below average in the regular season in points per game, ranking 20th at 21PPG. The Colts’ future and hopes lies with 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson was hurt early last season after a solid start, but Indy got a solid season from Gardner Minshew who threw for over 3,300 total yards with 15 TD’s to 9 INT’s. Minshew is gone so the Colts brought in an insurance policy in Joe Flacco to go along with Sam Ehlinger and Kedon Slovis. Indianapolis hasn’t named a starter yet for this preseason game, but indications are Ehlinger and Slovis will get plenty of looks. The Colts had solid offensive numbers from last season but that was with improved play from Minshew who is now gone. Denver’s defense allowed 1-point for every 15.3-yards gained which was 17th in the NFL. The Colts gave up just 5.2 Yards Per Play a season ago which ranked 15th. We don’t expect much from either offense and the average defenses should hold up well against unproven QB’s. NFLx games with a Total of 37 or more points that features conference opponents stay Under at a 67% rate dating back 9 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this one.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - These teams played a double-header yesterday and that puts some extra stress on bullpens.  This is particularly true in this case because in the first game yesterday neither starter was able to make it out of the 5th inning.  Also, the Guardians have been losing but their games continue to see plenty of runs.  In fact, Cleveland is 2-7 in August and 7 of the 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs!  The Guardians enter this game losers in 7 straight games and Gavin Williams is unlikely to turn that around.  Williams is off a tough start and if you look at 3 of his last 4 starts he has given up 12 earned runs in 14 innings spanning 3 of the 4 starts.  The Twins, unlike the Guardians, have won 7 of 9 games.  Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in this 9-game stretch!  13 of their 19 games since the All-Star break have reached at least 9 runs.  Also, Simeon Woods Richardson is expected to get the start here and he has struggled some in his last two starts and that includes the most recent one even though it was against the White Sox!  Woods Richardson has allowed 9 earned runs in 7.1 innings over his last two starts!  We like the value here given all of the above as well as the high-scoring trending of Guardians games and Twins games plus the metrics based on this expected pitching match-up.  Over is the call in this one Saturday evening.

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Under 33.5 Points – Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This game is going to be a battle of inexperienced QB’s and we project both teams will have problems scoring points.  Carolina head coach Canales has already said that starting QB Bryce Young will not play and back up Andy Dalton is out due to an injury.  That means the Panthers will be going with rookie QB Jack Plummer (from Louisville) to start followed by Jake Luton.  Plummer is an undrafted rookie and Luton has just 2 TD’s in his 110 career attempts to go along with 6 interceptions.  They’ll be facing a New England team whose strength is their defense which finished in the top 6 in both YPG and YPP allowed last season.  Offensively the Patriots will use a heavy dose of rookies Drake Maye and Joe Milton at QB.  Jacoby Brissett will open the season as the starter but he took the vast majority of the reps in Tuesday’s practice which actually indicates he’ll see very little if any time on Thursday night.  Maye & Milton are still learning the offense and have been up & down in camp as to be expected.  They’ll be working behind an offensive line that from all reports hasn’t looked great in camp which will make it extra tough on the young QB’s.  Both teams were near the bottom of the NFL offensively last year tying for dead last in scoring at 13.9 PPG, they were 30th and 32nd in total offense, and 29th and 32nd in YPP offense.  Both teams are dealing with new offensive schemes as well (both have new OC’s) which isn’t ideal out of the gate.  Defenses dominate on Thursday night in a low scoring game.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins look to respond off yesterday's 15-2 loss.  While we are forecasting a much better night of hitting for Minnesota in this one, we also expect the Mets to pound the ball yet again.  The Twins had won 4 of 6 before that loss yesterday and they had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their first 8 games after the All-Star break.  Minnesota did have 9 hits last night but scored only 2 runs as they left 9 men on base in the game.  The Twins are facing lefty Sean Manaea here.  The Mets southpaw has been solid this season but he has allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 hit batters) in 9.2 innings spanning his two starts since the All-Star break.  Minnesota is hitting .276 against left-handed pitching this season and that is #1 in the majors!  As for Twins starter David Festa, he is off of a solid performance versus the Phillies but he did give up quite a few hard hit balls in that one.  He was solid from a strikeout standpoint but, considering the hard contact, he was fortunate more damage was not done.  Festa is a rookie and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings in his first two MLB starts.  His 3rd outing was a long relief effort against the Phillies.  We look for another tougher start (just like the first two) for Festa here on the road and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Though yesterday's game was admittedly an extremely fortunate win for those (including us) holding over tickets in Arizona (was 2-1 in top of 9th!) the fact is the Diamondbacks entered that contest continuing to trend toward high-scoring games here in July and we will take advantage of the rather low total of 9 posted on Monday's game.  Now it is the Nationals that Arizona is hosting rather than the Pirates and Washington, like the Diamondbacks, enter this game off a tough, tight loss as they gave up the deciding run in the bottom of the 9th of a 4-3 final.  Overall, Washington was on a 7-4 run before yesterday's loss and the Nationals averaged scoring 5.5 runs during that 11-game stretch.  We are confident the Nationals will resume their hot hitting here after a couple of huge games at the plate in St Louis before yesterday's loss. We also like how potent this Arizona lineup has been. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of 24 games and some big hitting games have certainly helped lead the way.  The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs per game on average during this 24-game stretch.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks 17th and Arizona's ranks 22nd so look for runs throughout this game as these starting pitchers are also likely to struggle!  Mitchell Parker gets the call for Washington and he is winless with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 starts this month.  He has a 4.91 ERA on the road this season.  Jordan Montgomery expected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one.  Montgomery has been getting hit hard at home all season long.  We are not exaggerating as he had one good start at home versus the major league worst White Sox this season but has been hit quite hard in every other home start this season.  He has a 7.82 ERA at home this season and opponents are hitting .355 against him in those starts. All signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one Monday night.

#216457/216458 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.75 Goals – Club Leon vs Portland, Sunday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup  action. Portland is an MLS team and 20 of their 25 matches in league action have totaled at least 3 goals! Interesting match-up as Club Leon seems down a few notches from prior years and Portland has the attacking ability to take advantage. The issue for Portland is a leaky backline and this is a chance for Club Leon to get back on track and take advantage. They have not lost to an MLS club in this competition in the past and Portland has not beaten a team from Mexico in this competition yet either. That said, Portland is the more in-form team while Club Leon is the more talented team. This combination, in our opinion, will absolutely translate to plenty of goals. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

#911/912 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 3:37 PM ET - The Astros Hunter Brown has a 4.99 ERA in road games and a 1-4 record with a 7.09 ERA in day games. As strong as he has been at home and in night games this season, you can see why this could be a tricky matchup for him this afternoon in Oakland.  The Athletics have been better with wins in 11 of 17 games and Oakland has scored an average of 7 runs during this stretch.  So, Oakland has been trending much better of late compared to their full season numbers.  Houston has suddenly cooled off but they had been hot too and they will get to the A's starter here.  JP Sears gets the start and he is off a start where he only allowed 2 earned runs but on 9 hits in an outing that he was unable to complete 6 innings.  He has now given up 45 hits in 33 innings spanning his last 7 starts.  The Astros get it rolling at the plate this afternoon and the A's stay hot.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday afternoon. 

#977/978 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 10-4 Royals win and we look for another high-scoring game here. Kansas City is running hot after the All-Star break with 4 straight wins and they've scored 6.8 runs per victory in this stretch!  Going further back, KC has won 8 of 10 games and scored 6.1 runs a game during this hot stretch.  The Diamondbacks are off B2B losses but this followed a 12-5 stretch in which Arizona scored 6.5 runs per game during the last 14 games of that.  Their bats should resume the hot-hitting ways here as they face Alec Marsch of the Royals.  The Kansas City right-hander had a 5.68 ERA in 6 starts last month.  Now this month he has a 7.20 ERA in 3 appearances (2 starts).  Marsh's struggles continue here but he should get plenty of run support as well.  Not only are the Royals bats hot, they can take advantage of a struggling Jordan Montgomery who is also coming off the 15-day DL after dealing with a knee injury.  The Dbacks southpaw has allowed 26 earned runs in his last 25.1 innings dating back to late May.  In terms of bullpen ERA, the Diamondbacks are ranked 21st and the Royals are ranked 20th.  We like all the key elements to this one and our computer math model shows the highest probability of 11 to 12 runs.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

#208053/208054 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals +105 – Talleres Cordoba at Velez Sarsfield, Sunday at 7 ET - This one being played in Argentine Primera Division action.Talleres has one of the best attacks in the league and they score 1.84 goals per game which is a great average for this league. Defensively they are not as sound and that is part of the reason their road games have averaged 3 goals this season. Velez Sarsfield scores and allows 1 goal per game which is typical in this lower-scoring league. What tips this one in favor of plenty of scoring is that Talleres has been so strong on the road and they also are in strong current form. They will likely force the pace of this contest and we look that to result in plenty of scoring chances both ways. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - Toronto's Kevin Gausman is 1-5 at Rogers Centre this season with a 7.19 ERA and opponents hitting .318 against him.  Home has not been good to Gausman this season to say the least.  We also look for Detroit's Keider Montero to struggle in this one.  Montero is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings.  He has only pitched in 5 games this season but has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of the 5 outings.  Montero has appeared in 3 day games this season and has a 9.22 ERA under the sun.  The Tigers have won 12 of 16 games and scored 5.7 runs per game during this solid 3-week stretch of action.  The Blue Jays are looking to avoid the sweep here but one thing has remained a constant for the Blue Jays of late and that is high-scoring games.  24 of 29 games for Toronto over the past 5 weeks have totaled at least 8 runs.  Most of those games totaled at least 9 runs and this total is set too low.   Per our computer math model, the most probable outcome for total runs scored in this one is in a range of 10 to 11 runs.  The Jays have had 7 straight games total at least 8 runs and those 7 games averaged 11.4 runs per game. We make the most of this low total.  Over is the call in this one early Sunday afternoon. 

#209889/209890 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals +110 – San Jose at Minnesota, Saturday at 8:30 ET - This one being played in MLS action. San Jose has allowed more goals than any other team in the league this season with an average allowed of 2.5 goals. SJ has been playing a bit better recently but we see them resuming their defensive struggles after surprisingly holding Houston to 1 goal Wednesday - we lost our play here as a result that day. We get it back tonight! Minnesota is in bounce back mode as they have struggled for an extended stretch now. They are still the much better team in comparison with San Jose but Minnesota is dealing with both injury issues and a suspension that is impacting their defense tremendously. The defensive issues are a big part of the reason they have endured a winless streak. Minnesota still has great scoring ability all over the pitch but they can't stop teams. Minnesota wants to take advantage of facing the last place team as a chance to get back into the win column. However, the defensive issues for the hosts will allow the equally desperate visitors the chance to hang around in this game and we expect they will do just that! Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 3-2 or 3-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

#209837/209838 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals – San Jose vs Houston, Wednesday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in MLS action. San Jose has allowed more goals than any other team in the league this season with an average of 2.5 goals. SJ is at home here and has been playing a bit better recently but we see them continuing to have defensive struggles against a Houston team that is in bounce back mode and has scored an average of 1.5 goals when on the road this season. Houston is off a draw and a loss and wants to take advantage of facing the last place team as a chance to get back in the win column. 5 Houston matches in a row have totaled at least 3 goals and the last 4 have totaled 4 goals. San Jose has scored in B2B games but is off a 2-1 loss. They almost always struggle to stop teams. Each of the last 5 meetings have totaled 3 or more goals and these 5 totaled 21 goals. Per our computer math model, there is high probability that we see a 2-1 or 3-1 type of game here. We will take the over in this one.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 176.5 Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - Examining recent results for both teams we see each is playing at an above average tempo and possessions are up for both teams. The Wings are averaging 98.64 possessions per game in their last ten games, the Fever are averaging 97.20 possessions per game which rank these teams 1st and 3rd fastest in the W. Defense isn’t a strength for either team as they rank 11th and 12th in the league in Defensive Net Rating and points allowed per game with the Fever giving up 86.7PPG, the Wings allow 89.6PPG. Indiana allows foes to hit 44.3% of their shots (9th worst) while the Wings defensive FG% is last in the league at 46.8%. Despite their struggles defensively, both teams rank 7th and 8th in Offensive Net Rating and each scores over 81PPG. Dallas has scored 81 or more points in 5 straight games and 84+ in four of those. Indiana has put up over 81 points in 4 straight games including two games against outstanding defenses of the Liberty and Lynx. Going into the break we expect both teams to put for a maximum effort here and predict a high scoring game in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 161.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 3:30 PM ET - Our model is projecting over 170 total points in this game between a pair of Western Conference rivals in the Storm and Sparks. Seattle is one of the faster paced teams in the W at 97.95 possessions per game and they will want to dictate tempo. The Sparks are in the bottom half of the league at 96.31 possessions per game, but they’ll be forced into trying to keep up, much like they did in the previous meeting. In mid-June these teams met in Seattle which resulted in 174 total points being scored. LA attempted 69 field goals in that game which is five more than their season average. Seattle will again put up a big number here against this Sparks defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% (45.3%) and 11th in 3PT% defense. The Sparks rank 10th in Defensive Net Rating this season at 105.4 but have been even worse in their last team game rating 108.3. Seattle has the 4thbest Offensive Net Rating on the season and rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency. The Storm have faced some of the league’s better defenses in recent games and have still averaged 84PPG over their last five games. Granted, it won’t be an easy task for the Sparks to score against a Storm defense that is one of the best in the league, but we just need them to get to 78-points which they’ve done in 7 of their last eight games. Bet this one OVER the Total!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 4 PM ET - The best defensive team in the WNBA is the Minnesota Lynx with a Defensive Net Rating of 92.7. They allow just .942-points per possession, also best in the league and 74.6PPG which is second fewest. The Fever are 10-14 SU on the season and have relied heavily on their offense to win games as their defense is one of the worst in the league. The reality though is that the Fever’s offense isn’t that great either ranking 7th in Offensive Net Rating while ranking 4th and 5th in FG% and 3PT%. They will have a tough time putting up points against this Lynx defense that holds opponents to 40.1% shooting overall (1st) and 28.7% 3PT% which is also best in the W. Minnesota has held 7 of their last 10 opponents to less than 79 points and in five of those games they allowed just 62-points or less. Indiana recently played the Liberty who are very similar statistically to this Lynx team and that game finished with 161 total points. The Lynx recently played the Mystic (similar to the Fever) and that game ended with 141 total points. We expect another low scoring game here

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 173 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 3:30 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 167 on May 26th and 153 on June 7th. In the most recent clash, the O/U number was 160.5 so you can see for yourself the drastic difference in today’s line. The over-correction by the oddsmakers is a result of the Wings recent defensive struggles in allowing 100+ points in 3 of their last four games. When you look specifically at those three games they were against the Aces and Sun who are two of the best offenses in the league. Today the Wings face a Sparks team that ranks 11th in Offensive Net Rating and score just 78.4PPG also 11th fewest in the W. On the subject of offense, the Wings aren’t much better than the Sparks, ranking 8th in ONR while scoring 81.1PPG. Los Angeles has scored 80 or less points in 8 of their last ten games and several of those games came against subpar defenses. In games involving the Wings this season the oddsmakers have posted an O/U number of 172 or higher 3 times and it was against the Sun and Aces, who as we mentioned are far superior offensively than the Sparks. The value is clearly on the UNDER in this game.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 175 Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Phoenix and combined to produce 170 total points as the Fever pulled the 88-82 upset. The Mercury shot below season standards (43.8%, 33.5%) at 40% FG% and 26% 3PT% in that game which is unlikely to happen again here. Phoenix has put up 104, 84 and 100 points in their last three games against Dallas and Los Angeles who rate very similar in terms of defense to the Fever. Indiana is 11th in PPG allowed at 87.3PPG, rank 9th in opponents FG% and are 11th in Defensive Net Rating. Indiana is getting better offensively as the season progresses with an overall Offensive Net Rating of 99.9 on the year, but in their last ten games that number climbs to 105.1. The Mercury have an ONR of 108.3 in their last ten games and rank 4th overall for the season. Phoenix isn’t great defensively either ranking 9th in DNR while allowing 1.059-points per possession, 9th most in the league. Both teams are in the upper half of the league in pace of play so barring a bad shooting night we should see a Total of 175+ in this one. Bet Over!

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 172.5 Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - Both teams are playing well right now with the Aces winning 7 of their last eight games while the Storm have won 5 of their last six. We aren’t getting involved in a Side on this game but do like an Under wager in this big Western Conference showdown. The Storm has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the W this season at 94.3 and they’ve held 5 of their last six foes to less than 78 points. Seattle has the 2nd best FG% defense in the league allowing 41.8% and gives up the 4th fewest points per game at 78.6. Las Vegas is 6th in the W in DNR at 101.5 but in their last eight games their Defensive Rating is 97.5 and 3rd best in the league. The number on this game was set to high to begin with as a part of the Books reasoning was the success of the Aces offense in recent games scoring 88+ points in 5 straight games. Looking closer at the competition though we see the Aces faced 4 of the five worst defenses in those games and now step up to face one of the best. These two teams have met twice this season with the first encounter finishing with 143 total points and the second ending with 177. In the most recent clash, the Aces shot a ridiculous 56% overall and 40% from the 3-point line which are not sustainable numbers. We call for a lower possession game here and a solid Under winner.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 157.5 Minnesota Lynx at L.A. Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have had major injury concerns for most of the season and it shows in their 4-13 SU record. Minnesota will be missing their best player tonight in Napheesa Collier who is leading the team in points (20PPG), rebounds (10.2RPG) and steals (2.2SPG). The Under is an attractive bet here with a pair of teams that prefer to play slow with the Lynx being the 2nd slowest team in the W, the Sparks rank 9th in pace of play. In two meetings in June these two teams produced 148 and 157 total points. In the most recent meeting on June 14th, they combined for 125 field goal attempts which is well below the league average of 136.2. The reason that game got to 157 total points is the fact that the Sparks shot unusually well at 44%, above their season standard of 42.3% which is 10th worst in the W. That was also a surprising number considering the Lynx have the best defense in the league and hold opponents to 39.5% shooting. In fact, in the first meeting of the season between these two teams the Lynx held the Sparks to 26% shooting. The Under has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these two teams and 7 of the last eight. The most combined points between these two teams in the last five meetings is 157. We like our odds with the Under in this one!