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ASA WNBA play on OVER 167 Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever, 7:30pm ET - We should get plenty of possessions in this game and enough offense to push this game OVER the total of 167. Granted, we have lost some value in this O/U number as it opened much lower, but our model has this particular game resulting in at least 171 total points. Indiana is 4th in the league in Net rating and has an EFG% of 52.5%. Atlanta is better offensively with a Net rating of 106.4. The Dream don’t shoot it as well as the Fever but they do it with volume ranking 1st in field goal attempts. Atlanta is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. The Dream are putting up 84.4ppg on the season, Indiana is scoring 82.4ppg. Atlanta’s offense has really started to click with three of their last four games topping 90-points. Indiana is coming off a poor shooting game against the Valkyries, but Golden State is a top-tier defense, the Dream are not. There is some bad blood between these two teams and we expect both offenses to shine.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 9:38 PM ET - The Angels won yesterday's game 11 to 8.  All 3 games in this series have totaled 11 or more runs!  Also, the last 6 home games for the Angels have all reached double digits in runs.  The Angels have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game the last 11 home games!  The Rangers also are red hot at the plate as they have scored an average of 6 runs per game the last 14 games overall!  Since this is the 4th game of this series, the teams will likely see some bullpen arms they have already seen in this series and the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the majors.  As for Los Angeles starter Jack Kochanowicz, the big right-hander has struggled all season overall and that includes having 6 walks against only 4 strikeouts over his last 3 starts!  He is not fooling many batters as you can see with the low strikeout numbers and he also got hammered at Texas earlier this season.  Kochanowicz is 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .288 against him.  The Rangers' Patrick Corbin has also proven to be very hittable again this season.  He is 38-77 since the start of the 2020 season and the left-hander enters this start having allowed 35 hits in 27 innings over his last 5 starts!  Both these clubs are in the top 8 out of 30 teams for on base percentage the last 15 days and these teams will continue to cash in on those scoring opportunities here as these teams continue the scoring surge.  Our computer math model projects a total of 12 to 13 runs here and even if it only gets to 10 or 11 runs that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 163.5 Minnesota Lynx at LA Sparks, 3pm ET - Let’s get another day game O/U winner with this UNDER the number bet on the Lynx vs Sparks matchup. In a recent meeting between these two teams, they produced just 148 total points. The two teams combined for just 121 total field goal attempts, well below the league average of 134. Minnesota’s defense has been outstanding, holding six straight opponents to 79 or less points. The Lynx have held five of their last ten foes to 68 or less points. Minnesota has the #1 rated defense in the league in Net rating and give up the fewest points per game at 74.3. The Sparks are not great defensively, but the Lynx play slow so that’s a plus. L.A. is 8th in offensive Net rating, 6th in EFG%. Minnesota is off a game/loss yesterday and playing without rest here so they may not be as sharp offensively as they typically are. In any case we see a very similar total output to the previous meeting of 148.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Golden State Valkyries at Indiana Fever, 12pm ET - Both teams play at a slow pace (Indiana 9th, Golden State 10th) and boast strong defenses, with Golden State’s third-ranked defensive rating (97.6) and Indiana’s fourth-ranked DNR. The Fever are particularly strong defending the 3PT line (1st 26.1% opponent 3P%). GST has the best FG% defense in the league allowing opponents to hit just 39.9% on the season. Recent trends show the Fever (11-8 to UNDER) and Valkyries 11-7, 8-2 when the total ≥160. In the only other meeting this season these two teams combined for 165 total points but both shot above expectations in that game. The defenses for both teams and a slow tempo keeps this game from going over the total.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We got to looking at this match-up because the red-hot Blue Jays have won 9 in a row and this led us to what should be a solid over here!  The White Sox are scoring a little better as they have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 4 games.  The Blue Jays have scored 6.4 runs per game in their last 14 games.  Chris Bassitt has been fantastic in Toronto this season but he has been a different pitcher on the road where he has struggled to the tune of a 2-4 record with a 6.38 ERA.  Chicago's Aaron Civale recently came to the White Sox from Milwaukee.  The change of scenery has not helped him much yet.  Civale has allowed 23 hits and walked 11 for a total of 34 baserunners in 21 innings over his first 4 outings for the White Sox.  That spells trouble against a hot Toronto team.  The Blue Jays have had 6 of the last 8 road games total at least 9 runs and this one should get there as well.  The White Sox last 3 games have all reached the double digit mark in runs.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

Sweden Allsvenskan - #207461/207462 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-115) – IF Brommapojkarna at IFK Norrköping, Monday at 1 ET - IFK Norrköping has allowed an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches here at home. IF Brommapojkarna is off a 3-0 win but shutout victories are certainly not common for them. In fact, they had allowed 1.7 goals on average in their 9 matches before that one. IFK Norrköping lost their most recent match at home 3-0 so there is no doubt they will be ready to respond with plenty of attacking here Monday. However, IF Brommapojkarna has traveled well this season and that is why we expect the goals to fly here! Look for at least 2-2 here as this one should cruise over the total.  

2025 Concacaf Gold Cup, Final - #234225/234226 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-110) – USA vs Mexico, Sunday at 7 ET - This is a tremendous value with this over available at 2 goals as that means a 2-0 or 1-1 final would be a push for us.  Look for an aggressive approach from USA here and they have done damage against Mexico in recent meetings by being aggressive on the counterattack.  The last two meetings in the Concacaf competitions were both USA wins by a combined score of 5 to 0 and so they will have plenty of confidence here.  However, Mexico is the favorite here and that is no mistake.  Mexico has been great defensively heading into this match-up and also has scored 8 goals in last 5 matches.  USA has 1 low-scoring battle last 5 but the other 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece.  We trust them to score here even against a tough Mexico defensive structure but also USA will continue their defensive struggles. Look for at least 2-1 here as this one should cruise over the total.

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - Action on pitchers as Drew Pomeranz is expected to just be an opener here. Bullpen game for Cubs as the injury to starter Jameson Taillon has them pitching-thin and guys like Jordan Wicks and Chris Flexen will try to fill the gaps for Chicago. Considering the incredible history the Cubs have which dates all the way back to 1903 as the Cubs and 1876 in the National League and 1870 as a franchise, would you believe they set an ALL TIME franchise record yesterday for home runs? Indeed the Cubs hit EIGHT homers in an incredible slugfest and it is a minor miracle the game only totaled 12 runs as the Cardinals also went deep once! In any event, we are expecting another slugfest here and we had our eyes on this Saturday match-up all along. Very hot weather for this one and a solid south breeze is again in the forecast here! The wind is likely to be blowing out to center at a strong clip all afternoon! These are the kinds of games at Wrigley Field that can result in some of the craziest outcomes with both teams slugging it out back and forth all game long. The key here is that Matthew Liberatore just faced the Cubs in St Louis so he is giving them a quick 2nd look and the month of June was not good for him overall! The Cardinals southpaw is off a 6-inning shutout of Cleveland but the Guardians are struggling and he walked 5 in that.one. Note that, prior to that start, he allowed 20 earned runs over 27 innings spanning his last 5 starts and there should be plenty of contact at the plate and when you have contact in weather conditions like this at Wrigley Field it plays out as a very small ballpark. Just as we saw in yesterday's game, these will be tough conditions for a pitcher.  Chicago ranks 3rd in the majors for slugging percentage (.440) in day games. The Cardinals have scored 8 runs in BOTH of their wins in the season series this season while the Cubs have scored at least 8 runs in 2 of their 3 wins. We just can't see anything less than a dozen runs here today at a minimum!  As noted above, there were 9 homers hit in yesterday's game and today is again hot and breezy like yesterday's game was! This one should be an absolute slugfest at Wrigley. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 15 runs here.  We are very strong on the Over in this one!  

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Even though these two teams have not exactly been knocking the cover off the ball at the plate of late, this is still a great spot for an over as Kumar Rocker is off a rare better road start though he still allowed 8 baserunners in 5 innings of work so he was fortunate the damage was not more than 2 earned runs.  He has struggled badly on the road this season and we expect Rocker will again get rocked in this one after a rare, slightly better road start! Rocker is 1-4 with an 11.34 ERA in his 5 road starts this season.  As for Padres starter Randy Vasquez, he is coming off a bad start versus the Reds and he really labored in a number of his outings in the month of June.  The Padres have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 10 home games.  The Rangers, aided by some extra innings game in the stretch, have seen their confidence on the rise at the plate thanks to winning 5 of the last 8 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch.  Look for both starting pitchers to struggle in this one and that sets the tone for a game that should get into double digits Friday in San Diego.  Our computer math model projects a total of 11 to 12 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - The Dallas Wings will be without their second-leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale (16.8 PPG), due to a thumb injury, severely hampering their offensive output. DiJonai Carrington (doubtful, rib injury) adds to Dallas’ backcourt woes, forcing reliance on rookie guards JJ Quinerly and Aziaha James, who scored 15 points each in a low-scoring 79-71 win over Washington. Dallas’ recent roster moves, including the return of centers Teaira McCowan and Luisa Geiselsoder, signal a shift to a slower, inside-out style, as emphasized by coach Chris Koclanes. This approach aligns with their improved defensive net rating of 100.3 over the last five games, a significant step up for a team ranked 10th in DNR league-wide. Phoenix, coming off an 84-81 loss to Las Vegas, boasts the WNBA’s fourth-best defensive net rating of 98.5 and force 16.7 turnovers per game. Their ability to disrupt Dallas’ depleted guard play should keep scoring in check. While the June 11 matchup saw both teams shoot efficiently (Phoenix 50% FG, Dallas 43%) and combine for 173 points, Dallas’ missing key scorers and Phoenix’s elite defense suggest a lower-scoring, physical game.

FIFA Club World Cup - #238029/238030 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey, Tuesday at 9 ET - Monterrey is off a 4-0 win and they also scored a goal in their 1-1 draw with Inter Milan.  A match with Borussia Dortmund is likely to open up things a little bit more as well.  Borussia Dortmund has scored 5 goals in the last two matches and they had wrapped up Bundesliga and Champions League action by averaging 3 goals scored over their last 7 matches.  So the way they can bring it on the attack coupled with Monterrey coming in off a 4-0 blowout win sets this one up for plenty of goals. Monterrey also had been scoring well in the CONCACAF competition prior to this as they had averaged 2 goals scored over 4 matches in February and March.  Look for at least 2-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.     

ASA play on OVER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - This number opened 167.5 and was bet down with news that Caitlyn Clark is still not 100% and is listed as questionable tonight. With or without Clark we like OVER the number in this one. Indiana recently played in Golden State which resulted in 165 total points being scored. The Valkyries are similar to the Lynx in two key categories, pace of play (slow) and defense (1st Lynx, 3rd Valkyries). The one big difference is offense as the Lynx are 3rd in ONR overall and have the best EFG% at 55.6%. Another great comparison is the Lynx recent game against Seattle who has similar styles of play to the Fever and that game finished with 178 total points. Seattle/Fever rank 7th, 8th in Defensive Net rating, 2nd and 4th in Offensive net rating and 2nd and 3rd in pace of play. The point we are making is that we have a solid recent reference points for each team against similar opponents to predict this outcome. Last year two of the three meetings between these two teams finished with 170 or more total points being scored. The nature of this being a high profile game should result in a faster pace and more scoring opportunities for both teams. The Fever allow 37.3ppg in the paint this season which is 3rd most in the league which means Collier should feast on Indiana’s interior defense. Minnesota is great defensively but the Fever have the 3rd best team FG% at 46.2%. We expect plenty of points and should see this game get into the 170’s rather easily.

FIFA Club World Cup - #238017/238018 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+100) – Al Hilal vs Manchester City, Monday at 9 ET - Al Hilal, prior to a 2-0 win following a scoreless draw last time out, had scored 3.2 goals per match last 9 matches!  Of course they face a much bigger challenge here and there is a reason this one features Manchester City as a 2-goal favorite on the goal line in this one.  I am well aware that Al Hilal had been winning with defense but they will not be able to hold off a Man City side that has scored 18 goals in going 5-0 last 5 matches including 3-0 in the World Cup.  Of course they will force Al Hilal out of their comfort zone here and force them to try and keep up.  City did allow 2 goals in the most recent match and we expect they are going to get burned on the counterattack by Al Hilal at least once in this match.  However, the key will be the Man City offensive firepower keeping their foot on the gas throughout and flexing their muscles here in this one similar to what we saw with PSG yesterday.  Look for at least 3-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.   

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:35 PM ET - Possible pitchers duel.  Jacob Lopez the expected starter for the Athletics and he has struck out 38 in 27 innings this month as he is having a great June.  He has been particularly dominant over his last 4 starts with only 1 earned run allowed on 14 hits in 23 innings!  Considering those phenomenal numbers plus all the strikeouts for Lopez, we don't expect much from the Rays lineup here.  At the same time, look for the Tampa Bay starter to also deliver a gem here.  Drew Rasmussen is 6-1 since mid-May and has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 8 starts!  Yes, just 1 earned run allowed per start spanning his last 8 starts!  The Athletics enter this one on a 2-6 run and they have scored an average of only 1.8 runs in those 6 losses!  As for the Rays, they are off a 5-1 loss which was the 4th time in the last 6 games that their game has totaled 6 or less runs. Our computer math model projects a total of only 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

ASA WNBA play on Under 165.5 Total Points – Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics, 8pm ET - The Mystics average 79.7 points per game this season, while allowing 80.1, and over their last 10 games, they’ve scored 80.0 points while conceding 81.1. The Wings score 81.6 points per game but have a poor defensive mark, allowing 85.6. However, in their last six games, the Wings defense has been considerably better, ranking 5th in DNR at 101.1. Notably, the Mystics’ recent three-point struggles (5.2 makes at 33.3% over their last 10 games vs. 5.8 at 35.2% for the season) and Dallas’ back-to-back fatigue could limit offensive efficiency. Their June 22 matchup totaled 179 points (91-88 in OT), but regular-time scoring was 169 and barely over this number with Washington having a full roster and Dallas not playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back. In each teams last six games they have played at the 8th and 9th slowest pace in the league and rating 9th and 11th in ONR (Offensive Net Rating). We don’t see these two teams scoring more than 165 total points.

ASA CFL BC Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders UNDER 49.5 Total Points, 7pm E - Both teams face quarterback uncertainty, with BC’s Nathan Rourke (oblique injury) likely giving way to Jeremiah Masoli, who emphasizes ball security over big plays, and Saskatchewan starting Jake Maier due to Trevor Harris’ head injury. Maier’s 0-6 record in Harris’ absence last season and Saskatchewan’s depleted receiving corps (missing Samuel Emilus, Shawn Bane Jr., and Kian Schaffer-Baker) limit their passing game, while BC’s offensive line, without All-Star Dejon Allen, struggles against Saskatchewan’s top-ranked rush defense (76.9 yards per game allowed in 2024). The Lions’ offense has been inconsistent (24.9 points per game, 4th in CFL), and their games have gone UNDER twice in three outings this season. Saskatchewan’s defense, allowing 24.9 points per game (4th), excels at forcing turnovers (+26 in 2024), potentially stalling BC drives. In their last two meetings in Saskatchewan in 2024 (October 12 and November 2), both games ended with exactly 47 points (39-8 and 28-19), below the current 49.5 total, with defenses dominating via interceptions (five combined in the November game) and red-zone stops. With both teams likely leaning on conservative run-heavy strategies and facing offensive injuries, a low-scoring defensive battle is probable.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - While we are highly unlikely to get anywhere close to the 22-8 final in yesterday's game between these teams, plenty of scoring is again in the forecast here. The Rays have won 10 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Orioles rank 5th in the majors in slugging percentage when at home this season and they are averaging scoring about 5 runs per game at home this season.  Certainly they are going to build off yesterday's 22-8 win and they should pound the Rays Littell as he has allowed 11 homers in his last 4 road starts and has allowed multiple homers in 5 of his last 6 road starts.   The Orioles Eflin started this season strong but then had a 5.64 ERA last month and has a 7.40 ERA this month!  We would not be surprised, given the above scoring stats as well as the trending of these starting pitchers, to see each club again score at least 5 runs in this one.  Either way, double digits should not be a problem here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one! 

FIFA Club World Cup - Rotation #238197/238198 ASA PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-135) – Al Hilal vs Pachuca, Thursday at 9 ET - Pachuca will play relaxed here as they know their fate is sealed so they may as well go out with a bang after B2B losses. Al Hilal is motivated to go hard for the victory given their situation off B2B draws so that sets this one up for plenty of goals. Al Hilal, prior to a scoreless draw last time out, had scored 3.2 goals per match last 9 matches! Pachuca, in June, had a friendly and also 2 more matches in this competition. All 3 of the games totaled at least 3 goals and Pachuca did score in all 3 of those. Look for at least 3-1 or 2-2 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 LA Sparks vs. Indiana Fever – 7 PM ET - The Fever Offense: Averaging 84 PPG (2nd highest number in the W), led by Caitlin Clark (18.2 PPG), Kelsey Mitchell (17.9 PPG) and Aliyah Boston (15.9PPG). They rank 4th in both pace (96.34) and Offense net rating. The Sparks Offense: Averaging 81.3 PPG, with Kelsey Plum (20.4 PPG), Dearica Hamby (16.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and Rickea Jackson (12.4 PPG) driving their scoring. Their games have gone OVER the total in 9 of 15 (60%) games this season. The key here is the Sparks play at the 3rd fastest rate in the league and will gladly play up-tempo with the Fever. The defensive weaknesses for both teams can be exploited by the others. The Sparks allow 87.3 PPG; Fever allow 79.3 PPG but have struggled against strong interior scorers like Hamby. With plenty of possessions and capable scorers on both sides we expect a game well into the 170's if not 180’s.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 7:45 PM ET - Look for plenty of scoring here. This is a match-up of two teams that consistently have been getting involved in high-scoring games recently and it has continued into this series.  The Cardinals have won the first two games by a combined score of 16 to 9 and have scored 7.5 runs per victory in their current 8-2 run over the last 10 games.  The Cubs have had 6 straight games reach double digits in runs and just like the weather was hot in Chicago at Wrigley Field it is the same here in St Louis right now and the bats stay hot here.  The Cardinals Fedde has a 4.36 ERA at home this season and has not been overly impressive in recent starts.  The Cubs Boyd has been great at home but struggled on the road.  0-3 with a respectable 3.22 ERA in 8 road starts but opponents have hit .272 against him in those road outings and the hot St Louis sticks will give him trouble here!  Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one! 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Nationals continue their resurgence at the plate.  They won yesterday's game 10 to 6 and have scored 29 runs in the last 4 games and all 4 of those games reached double digits.  We expect a similar result tonight.  Padres starter Bergert has good numbers this season but is a rookie and has made very few starts at the MLB level.  In fact, this will be his first ever home start at the MLB level.  We expect him to struggle some because the Nationals are so strong at the plate right now and, in fact, the Nats did a number on a normally solid Padres bullpen last night too.  We expect more of the same tonight and, speaking of bullpens, the Washington bullpen ERA is 5.95 this season which is dead last in the majors.  The Padres did some damage against it last night and will do the same here.  Also, the Nationals starter Trevor Williams has consistently struggled this season and his recent results have been no different.  Williams is 0-3 in 4 starts this month and he is getting hit at a .313 clip this month.  In looking at the Padres last 8 home games they had one low-scoring loss but averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the other 7 at home.  This total is simply too low given all of the above and we expect both teams to hit very well.  Bergert's low ERA is keeping this total below where it should be and he could struggle in first home start plus he does not work particularly deep in games either.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one with a Top Game!

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox, Monday at 9:38 PM ET - Look for plenty of scoring here. The Angels Jack Kochanowicz has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts including each of his last two home outings as well. His 4 starts this month have seen him complete less than 17 innings yet he allowed 6 homers in these 4 starts.  Buehler is coming off a tough season with the Dodgers in which he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and now he is also struggling with Boston this season.  Buehler is 5-5 but with a 5.95 ERA overall.  Also, his road numbers are particularly ugly!  Away from home Buehler is 2-4 with a 9.23 ERA this season!  Based on current form, things are not getting any better any time soon either.  Buehler has allowed 21 earned runs in 18 innings over his last 4 starts!  Like Kochanowicz, the long ball has been a problem too with 6 homers allowed in his last 4 starts.  6 of the last 9 Angels home games have totaled at least 9 runs.  The Angels have scored 16 runs in the last 2 games.  The Red Sox are off a high-scoring series in San Francisco where 2 of the 3 games reached at least a dozen runs.  Though the Boston bullpen has been solid this season the Angels bullpen ERA is one of the highest in the majors.  With both starters struggling and the Red Sox bullpen likely called upon too early and the Angels bullpen continuing to struggle, this one should fly over the total.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

FIFA Club World Cup - Rotation #238137/238138 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-120) – Manchester City vs Al Ain, Sunday at 9 ET - Al Ain was hammered 5-0 by Juventus and now face a Manchester City side likely hungry to do much more than they did in their 2-0 opening win.  City has the talent to dominate a match like this and is a massive favorite with good reason.  Al Ain is from the UAE and had scored 5 goals in their last 3 matches there before struggling against Juventus here in the opener of this competition.  We expect that Al Ain will work hard to get on the board here after the embarrassing shutout loss but they also don't have the defensive talent to hold off this City squad consistently for long stretches.  Manchester City is going to get their scoring chances here and many should be high quality which they bang home.  Look for at least 3-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.  

ASA NBA play on OVER 214.5 Indiana Pacers vs OKC Thunder, Game 7 Sunday 8pm ET - Historically, Game 7’s in the NBA in the Finals typically stay UNDER the number, but that won’t be the case tonight. The value in this number is what has us on the OVER. Every game of this series has had an O/U number of 222.5 or higher. The two teams have combined to scored 215 or more in every game but the most recent in which the Thunder pulled their starters at the end of the 3rd quarter in the blowout loss. The Thunder shot poorly in the two most recent games in Indiana by going 11 for 46 (24%) from beyond the arc. You can bet the Thunder will shoot much better at home as they have in the previous 3-games in this series where they hit 40% from Deep. OKC averaged 122.6ppg at home this season, were the 8th best shooting team in the league on their court and 7th best in 3PT%. Indiana does not have a problem playing keep up with the Thunder and will score here too. The Pacers were the 6th bet shooting team on the road this season at 48% and have found answers offensively against this OKC defense. The Pacers are averaging 109ppg vs. the Thunder in this series and hitting 36.4% from the 3-point line. This number has been adjusted too low and the value is betting OVER.

#923/924 ASA PLAY ON Over 12 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - Very hot weather for this one and not just a south wind but a strong south wind is in the forecast here!  The wind is likely to be blowing out to center at a strong clip all afternoon!  These are the kinds of games at Wrigley Field that can result in some of the craziest outcomes with both teams slugging it out back and forth all game long.  The key here is neither one of these pitchers has been that impressive of late and there should be plenty of contact at the plate and when you have contact in weather conditions like this at Wrigley Field it plays out as a very small ballpark.  The Cubs Cade Horton is getting hit at a .274 clip in day games this season and with 15 strikeouts in 21 innings which is decent but not great.  He will be pitching to a lot of contact here and the Mariners pounded out 13 hits in their 9-4 win yesterday.  The Cubs had 4 runs on 9 hits yesterday and will do much better than that here.  The Mariners Emerson Hancock has struck out just 7 in 12 innings over his last two starts.  He also has allowed 21 hits in 15 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 road starts.  The Cubs will pound Hancock here as this will absolutely be the toughest hitter-friendly situation he has pitched in so far in his young MLB career.  Remember too that Horton is also a young hurler as he is a rookie for the Cubs so these will be his toughest conditions yet as well.  Chicago ranks 4th in the NL for slugging percentage in day games.  The Mariners rank 4th in the majors for slugging percentage in road games!  There were 6 homers hit in yesterday's game and today is even hotter and windier than yesterday's game was!  This one should be an absolute slugfest at Wrigley. Our computer math model projecting 15 to 16 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 or 14 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON 3* Over 8.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - The Cardinals Pallante has a 5.17 ERA at home this season and overall he is struggling this month with 12 earned runs allowed in 14 and 2/3 innings over his 3 starts.  The Reds Singer has a 5.06 ERA on the road this season and opponents are hitting .296 against him on his travels.  The Reds have been trending to the over recently.  6 of their last 7 games have totaled more than 10 runs and the Cardinals have their bats going again as well.  St Louis has scored an average of 7 runs per game during their current 4-1 run last 5 games.  Both bullpens rank 17th or worse in the majors for bullpen ERA.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 6:45 PM ET - We won with this pick yesterday and will come right back with it again today. Colorado is growing with confidence at the plate as they are off B2B2B wins and overall have been hitting better lately than they were earlier in the season.  In fact, the Rockies have the #1 slugging percentage in the league over the last 15 days with a sparkling .499 slugging percentage.  The Nationals have not fared so well in that regard but their slugging percentage at home this season ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors.  The key here is that Washington will take advantage of facing Marquez in this one.  The Rockies right-hander is 2-8 this season with an ERA of 6.62 and it is not just because of Coors Field.  In fact, he is 1-4 with a 7.91 ERA in his 9 road starts this season and opponents are hitting .349 against him on the road!  As for the Nationals starter here, Mitchell Parker is likely to get hammered.  He has had just one good start in his 9 outings.  In the other 8 outings, he allowed 35 earned runs!  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the NL and the Rockies bullpen is nearly just as bad.  Monday's game featured 5 homers between these teams and then they had 9 homers in yesterday's game!  We look for another slugfest to develop in Washington DC tonight!  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. Over in this one!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 156.5 Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun, 7pm ET - We like a low scoring game tonight between the Mercury and Sun and won’t be surprised if this game stays in the 140’s. Connecticut is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days so fatigue becomes a factor. Phoenix is rested but has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Liberty, so as a big favorite here, may call off the dogs late in this game. Phoenix is an average team offensively ranking 7th in Net rating, the Sun are the worst offensive team in the league ranking 13th in ONR. Connecticut has scored 71 or less points in 3 straight games, 4 of their last five and 7 of their last ten games. Phoenix is 4th in Defensive Net rating at 99.6 and have held 7 of their last ten opponents to 80 or less points. Connecticut plays at the second slowest rate in the league, the Mercury are 6th in pace, but again, schedule should have them playing slower than normal tonight. Scoring is down slightly this season in the WNBA and we don’t see these two teams threatening that 155 number tonight.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 155.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 10 pm ET - We are grabbing the extra value with a contrarian bet on the OVER in this game after the line move. The Sparks score their points by playing fast with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the WNBA. They are slightly below average in terms of Offensive Net rating. Seattle plays at the second slowest pace in the W, but have the 2nd best ONR at 109.5. Seattle has the 2nd best EFG% at 55.6, LA checks in 6th in EFG% at 51.3. The Storm are 7th in Defensive Net rating at 103.9, the Sparks are 11th at 112.0. Seattle is coming off an extremely low scoring game against Golden State 70-76 but the Storm had scored 94, 89 and 83-points offensively in their three previous games. LA has been a dead-over team with a 6-1-1 O/U record in their last eight games. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 177, 172, 172 and 174 total points. The move is wrong here…BET OVER!

ASA NHL play on OVER 6.5 Goals – Edmonton vs Florida – Game 6 Tuesday, 8pm ET - If it’s not broken, don’t fix it! The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the series with all five games finishing with 7 or more goals. These teams are on a 7-0 OVER streak for the season when they have faced off. There have been a high volume of shots on goal in this series with 78, 88, 64, 75 in the first four games, then just 40 in Game 5 which still produced 7 goals. Goaltending for Edmonton has been subpar as Skinner and Pickard have both looked shaky at times. Bobrovsky has allowed his fair share of goals in this series too with 16 goals against in the 5-game series. We expect the higher scoring trend to continue and will back the 100% trend of OVERS in this series. 

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:45 PM ET - We have been watching this one since yesterday when the lines first came out and we wanted to see how the markets reacted today!  We like what we are seeing!  We watched the total closely and the fact that this total has been holding at 9.5 runs (above the key number of 9) confirms that other sharps are looking the same way we are in this game and that it is very likely headed for double digits.  This total is at 9.5 with small juice on the over as of 2 PM ET today.  Colorado is growing with confidence at the plate as they are off B2B wins and overall have been hitting better lately than they were earlier in the season.  In fact, the Rockies have the #5 slugging percentage in the league over the last 15 days.  The Nationals have not fared so well in that regard but their slugging percentage at home this season ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors.  The key here is that Washington will take advantage of facing Senzatela in this one.  The Rockies right-hander is 1-10 this season with an ERA above 7.00 and it is not just because of Coors Field.  In fact, he is 0-5 with a 6.83 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents are hitting .408 against him on the road!  As for the Nationals starter here, Michael Soroka is likely to get hammered.  He has had just one good start in his 5 outings.  In the other 4 outings, he allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits (6 homers!) and 6 walks and 3 hit batters in 22 innings.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the NL and the Rockies bullpen is nearly just as bad.  Yesterday's game featured 5 homers between these teams and we look for another slugfest to develop in Washington DC tonight based on all of the above.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one with a Top Game!

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at OKC Thunder Game 5, 8:30 pm ET - The biggest factor in the equation tonight is the pace of play. The pace of play has slowed significantly for these two teams and field goal attempts are down for both teams in this series. Indiana has stepped up defensively and the Thunder are the best defensive team in the league. The entire NBA averaged 89 (x 2 = 178) field goal attempts per game in the regular season and games averaged 227 total points per game. These two combined for 168 total FGA’s per game in the first 3 games of this series and then just 158 in Game 4. The 3-point attempts for both teams are trending down in this series with 67.4 3-point attempts (NBA ave. 74.8) in Games 1-3, then just 52 in Game 4. In Game 4 we had a Scott Foster led officiating crew that was whistle happy which resulted in 71-free throw attempts which is abnormally high for a NBA game (43 league ave.) This series has now gone to a whole different level and playoff pressure and intensity will ramp up for both teams. It will result in a lower scoring game and UNDER.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164.5 Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces, 7pm ET - We expect plenty of points in this one with our model projecting 168.3 total points. LV will be without A’ja Wilson again but they have three other double-digit scores to pick up the slack including Young and Lloyd who are coming off 28 and 21-point games against Dallas. Phoenix could also see the return of a key component today in Kahleah Copper who averaged 21.1ppg last season. The Mercury also recently got a boost with the return of Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack. Games involving the Aces this season have averaged 166 total points per game which is above the league average for a game of 162. Games involving the Mercury have averaged 164 total points per game and that is without two of their leading scorers missing the majority of those games. Las Vegas pushes the tempo with the 2nd fastest pace of play in the league, the Mercury are 8th, but in their last three games they’ve played at a faster rate. These teams have had some turnover from last season but the four meetings a year ago finished with 169, 186, 202 and 176 total points being scored. We expect a higher scoring game again today!

ASA CFL play on OVER 51.5 Roughriders at Tiger Cats – 7pm ET - The Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0) face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1) on June 14, 2025, at Tim Hortons Field, with the Over 52 total points our wager on this game. Saskatchewan’s Week 1 win (31-26 over Ottawa) showcased QB Trevor Harris’s efficiency (73% completion, 277 yards, 2 TDs) and a turnover-forcing defense (best in 2024), bolstered by new RB Ka’Deem Carey (1,060 yards in 2024). Hamilton’s Week 1 loss (38-26 to Calgary) highlighted their pass-heavy attack (Bo Levi Mitchell: 300+ yards) and 2024 league-leading 5.23 yards per play, though their run defense struggled (150+ yards allowed). With Saskatchewan’s efficient 13.18 yards per point and Hamilton’s 13.94, plus fast-paced offenses (0.0192 and 0.0189 plays per second, respectively), the CFL’s three-down format and these teams’ scoring trends (26.6 and 25.5 PPG in 2024) support a high-scoring game, much like last year with 63 and 56 points being scored in two meetings.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 168.5 Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces – 10pm ET - These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league which means we will get a high possession game between these two teams. LV averages 96.98 possessions per game (3rd), the Wings average 96.82 (4th). Neither team will face much opposition defensively as the Wings have the 11th rated DNR at 109.3, the Aces have been a major disappointment on that end of the court with the 9th rated DNR at 103.5. The Aces allow opponents to make 47.3% of their FGA’s (10th), Dallas rank 11th in that same defensive category allowing foes to hit 46.7% of their attempts. The Wings give up nearly 90ppg on the season, while the Aces allow 83.9ppg, which ranks in the bottom 4 of the W. Las Vegas will be without reigning MVP Wilson in this game but they still have capable scorers in Gray and Young who should step up with Wilson sidelined. The Wings got rookie PG Bueckers back from injury in their last game who promptly scored 35-points in her return. Strangely, this line opened much lower than the current number and was bet up after the news of Wilson’s injury. We will back the move and BET OVER!

ASA CFL play on UNDER 50 BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 8:30 pm ET - We are betting UNDER in this game with our model projecting 44.7 total points as the O/U. BC has a game under their belt after 31-14 win over Edmonton last week. The Lions exploded for 28-points in the second half after putting up just 3-points at the break. This week it’s going to be much tougher for the Lions and QB Rourke to move the ball and put up points against a Blue Bombers defense that allowed 20.3ppg in 2024, the lowest number in the CFL. Winnipeg gave up the fewest yards per game at 329.7 a year ago and are projected to be just as good on that side of the football in 2025. The Blue Bombers will be without their starting QB Zac Collaros in the opener who is suspended for this game. Collaros led the CFL with 420 completions, 5,451 passing yards and 32 TD’s in 2024. That means the BB’s will lean on RB Oliveira, the league MOP in 2024, to carry the load offensively. BC is solid defensively as they showed last week allowing just 14-points to Edmonton, who averaged 28ppg in 2024. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest YPG last season and PPG at 24.4ppg. In the three meetings last season these two teams produced 50-points, then 25 and 31. We like the trend of the two most recent meetings to continue and will be on the UNDER here!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 167.5 LA Sparks at Las Vegas Aces, 10pm ET - These teams recently met in Las Vegas and produced 177 total points. That game went OVER the number of 167. Clearly the oddsmakers feel they were right with that number just over a week ago and are baiting bettors to play OVER in this game. In that game, both teams shot well above season averages with the Sparks hitting 47% overall and 29% from the 3-point line. Las Vegas sot 46% overall and 48% from Deep. There were 136 field goal attempts which is slightly higher than the league average of 133.8. We expect a regression in shooting tonight as the Sparks rank 5th in the league in FG% at 43.5%. The Aces are the 2nd worst shooting team in the W at 39.2%. After being the 5th best defensive team in the league the Aces have slipped to 8th this season. They are coming off a humbling loss to Golden State in which they allowed 95-points to the expansion Valkyries. The Sparks have had some issues on the defensive end of the court ranking 10th in DNR, but this is a big rivalry and they are coming off a solid showing against GST in which they allowed 78-points in regulation. Play contrarian here and put yourself of the UNDER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - We expect plenty of field goal attempts, made shots and points in this Western Conference showdown. Both teams could be getting key contributors back tonight as rookie Paige Bueckers is projected to play for the Wings and Alyssa Thomas could be in the lineup for the Mercury. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 97.08 possessions per game. The Mercury are around league average in pace at 96.54. Phoenix is 4th in the league in Defensive Net rating but the Wings are 3rd to last in DNR. The Wings are the highest scoring team in the league at 81.6ppg, Phoenix is11th at 78.6, but let’s not forget they have been without All-WNBA player Thomas and here 15.2ppg for the past 5 games. In the last four meetings between these two teams, one has scored 97+ points and the O/U is 4-0 with the games averaging 192.5ppg. 

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228.5 OKC Thunder at Indiana Pacers Game 3 8:30 pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet in the last game but will zig-zag here and play UNDER in Game 3. In Game 2 these two teams had huge 3rd and 4th quarters with 67 and 63 combined points. In the game there were 164 field goal attempts which is 14 less than the league average this season. These teams are averaging 100 possessions per game in this series and both teams Offensive Net ratings has dropped significantly in the first two games compared to the rest of the previous playoff series. OKC’s defense is suffocating with a Defensive Net rating of 109 in this series. The Thunder have an EFG% of 50.8% which is well below their season average of 56%. With the regression in pace of play, a shift to a new venue, defensive intensity from both teams in this crucial Game 3 we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

Spain La Liga 2 Playoffs: Rotation #202009/202010 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Real Oviedo vs Almeria, Wednesday at 3 ET - Strong spot for an under in the 2nd leg of this match-up.  The 1st Leg was a 2-1 Real Oviedo win and now they will look to stifle Almeria here and hang on to complete the victory.  We like the fact that Real Oviedo has allowed only an average of only 0.5 goals in going undefeated in the last 10 matches.  Yes, just 5 goals allowed in the last 10 matches.  Almeria has also been strong defensively.  Prior to allowing 2 goals in the 1st Leg of this battle, Almeria allowed only 3 goals in the last 6 matches for an average of 0.5 goals per match.  Given the situation and the recent defensive-minded performances of each of these clubs, we will confidently take the under here.   

World Cup Qualifying Europe Group Stage - Rotation #225397/225398 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-100) – Croatia vs Czech Republic, Monday at 2:45 ET - Confidence up for Croatia after working out the kinks in an easy 7-0 win over Gibraltar.  Between World Championship Qualifying matches and Nations League matches, Czech Republic certainly has their goal-scoring confidence up as they have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.  They have averaged 2.5 goals scored in those 4 games and they bring plenty of confidence to this battle with Croatia.  These are the top two sides in this group and so this is a key battle and we look for both clubs to push hard for the victory and can't see either delivering a clean sheet either.  All of this translates to a 2-1 final at a minimum the way we see it and Over is the bet in this one.  

ASA NBA play on OVER 227.5 Indiana Pacers at OKC Thunder – Game 2 8pm ET - The Pacers had 20 turnovers in the first half of Game 1 and managed just 45 points. Now that they have the jitters out, they should be much better in that aspect in Game 2. Not to mention they now have zero pressure on them after stealing G1. OKC put up 110 points despite a bad shooting night of 40% overall, well below season standards of 47.7% (7th). The Pacers defense was 23rd this season in FG% defense allowing 47% so we can bet the Thunder have a much better shooting performance in G2. These teams got to 221 in the first game of this series despite the turnovers and poor shooting. There were 180 field goal attempts in G1 which is above the league average for the entire NBA during the regula season. These two teams have Offensive Net ratings of 115.4 (OKC) and 117.1 (IND) in the playoffs. In G1 they both had ONR's less than 109. We expect a return to the longterm statistical data in this one. They In the previous seven meetings between these two teams, they have combined for 232 or more points in every game. We expect a ton of points tonight.

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - We are surprised this total has been holding at 10.5 runs and it is go time now as we love the value on the over here.  In Friday's game, the Mets went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position and the Rockies went 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position.  Then, in Saturday's game, the Mets went 3 for 14 with runners in scoring position and Colorado went 0 for 8.  There have been so many chances for some bigger innings in this series and it just has not yet come together.  The Rockies had a bullpen game Friday so the Mets have already seen most of the Rockies relievers in this series already plus these teams met last week In New York too.  There is a lot of familiarity and we look for a high-scoring series finale here with very nice weather conditions for this afternoon game at Coors Field.  The Mets start Tylor Megill and he struggled badly (10 hits in 4 innings) in his lone career start here.  Coors Field is so tough on pitchers and Megill enters this one off a start in which he struggled early versus the Dodgers.  If he gets in another early hole early at Colorado it is much tougher for a pitcher to turn things around in this ballpark.  As for Rockies starter Chase Dollander, he has pitched quite well on the road this season but the young hurler has struggled in his starts here in Denver.  There have already been 41 hits in the first two games of this series and we saw some big homers here yesterday.  Dolander and this Rockies bullpen will struggle to contain the Mets here. Dollander had one decent home start this season but the other 3 saw him allow 19 runs (16 earned) in just 12 innings on this mound!  Our computer math model projecting 12 to 13 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one. 

UEFA Nations League Final - Rotation #234013/234014 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.75 Goals (-120) – Portugal vs Spain, Sunday at 3 ET - Yes it is the final and will be played a little more tightly at first.  But watch what happens once that first goal goes in!  The fact is we just don't see all the big-time scoring in Spain's games suddenly coming to a screeching halt!  Spain has scored an average of 3 goals in their last 8 Nations League matches.  They have also conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches in the Nations League.  Portugal will be challenging the questionable defense of Spain early on this one.  Portugal has averaged scoring 2.2 goals in their 9 Nations League matches.  We don't see this Spain side suddenly changing their style of play as the attacking and willingness to get into high-scoring battles is what has brought them to this point and they are the favorites for a reason. In other words, the goals should fly in this one as Spain will look to push the tempo.  

ASA CFL play on OVER 49 Edmonton Elks vs. BC Lions, 10pm ET - The BC Lions, led by dynamic quarterback Nathan Rourke, averaged 26.3 points per game in 2024 with a league-leading 412.7 offensive yards per game, with 328.7 of those yards coming via the pass. Edmonton, now quarterbacked by Cody Fajardo, is expected to improve from their 2024 offensive numbers. Fajardo threw for over 3,100 yards last season with Montreal with a 16/7 TD/INT ration. The Elks feature a strong running game led by Justin Rankin and Javon Leake, who rushed for a combined 1,400 yards last season. Edmonton’s allowed 27.8 points per game (3rd most) and BC’s defense conceded 24.4 points per game. The Elks allowed the most passing YPG a year ago at 300PYPG and can be exploited through the air. BC has one of the best receiving corps in the CFL and have high expectations for QB Rourke, who is coming off a down year. New head coach Buck Pierce, formerly Winnipeg’s O-Coordinator, wants to open up the offense, play fast and utilize his big play receivers to their full potential. This is a big game to start the season for both teams and we expect each offense to put up a big number in this game.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 154.5 Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams so they are very familiar with the others style of play. The first two games both stayed UNDER with 147 and 140 total points. That has been a trend for this series as 7 straight meetings have stayed below the posted O/U. Seattle is the 2nd slowest paced team in the W, the Mercury are around league average. Both are very good defensively with the Mercury having the 3rd best Defensive Net rating in the league, the Storm are 6th. Neither is great offensively with the Storm ranking 8th in Offensive rating the Mercury are 10th. These are two of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league so neither generate many second-chance opportunities. This is a low number at 154 but our model is projecting 150.3 total points. We agree and will bet UNDER here.

World Cup Qualifying Europe Group Stage - Rotation #225345/225346 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-115) – Albania vs Serbia, Saturday at 2:45 ET - We understand the low total here as Serbia is known for a solid back-line but there is also a lot of attacking talent on both sides here and we feel this total has been set too low.  The value of 2 being a push is a big value but we do expect 3 or more here.  Serbia has so many attacking options and they have some big guys up front that are difficult to contain in front of the goal.  Albania has been boosted in terms of attacking talent leading into this match and also Serbia has allowed 5 goals in their last 3 played away from home. Albania got to take on a weaker foe in their most recent match and will be boosted by the easy 3-0 win.  They allowed multiple goals in their two matches before the win over Andorra and will have their hands full with Serbia here but, per all of the above, both clubs should get on the scoresheet here. Over is the bet in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings, 9:30pm ET - Defense, or the lack thereof is the driving factor of tonight’s wager. Dallas is 11th (out of 13) in the WNBA in Defensive Net rating at 107.1, the Sparks are 10th at 104.3. The Wings have allowed 83+ points in every game but one this season and allow teams to hit 45.6% (10th) of their FG attempts and 37.8% of their 3’s (11th). The Sparks D ranks 8th in both overall team FG% and 3PT% defense. LA has allowed 85+ points in 5 of their eight games this season. The Wings are the 2nd fastest paced team in the league and the Sparks play around league average. Both teams should have solid shooting nights with plenty of possessions to push this OVER 170+ total points.   

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Goals Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers, Friday 8pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet on Game 1 of the Finals but will flip to the UNDER in Game 2. These two teams got off to a fast start in the opener with 3 goals in the first 12:30 of the game. Then two more goals followed early in the 2nd period, but the defenses/goaltending settled in and were much better for the rest of the 2nd and 3rd period. Both teams have more than capable offenses but let’s not forget these two teams were 1st and 4th in Goals allowed per game at 2.39 (Panthers) and 2.82 (Oilers). Netminder Bobrovsky for the Panthers allowed 4 goals in Game 1 but that was on 46 shots by the Oilers. In his previous three playoff games he gave up 6 total goals on 91 attempts. Oilers goalie Skinner has given up 6 goals in his last two games but prior had allowed just 2 in three games on 88 shot attempts. This O/U number has been adjusted up and the value now lies on the UNDER 6.5 GOALS!

ASA CFL Over 47.5 Total Points – Toronto vs. Montreal, June 6, 2025 - In 2024, their four meetings had Over/Under lines of 51 or higher, with final scores totaling 50, 58, 65, and 58 points, clearing 47.5 in all four games. Both teams’ offensive strengths align to exploit defensive weaknesses, supporting a high-scoring affair. Toronto’s rushing attack, led by Ka’Deem Carey (1,060 yards, 7 TDs in 2024), averaged 121.3 yards per game and gashed Montreal for 500+ rushing yards across three games, including 234 in the Eastern Final. Montreal’s run defense, which allowed 115.9 yards per game and 7 yards per rush against Toronto, struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks and strong ground games, setting up Toronto to pile up points. Conversely, Montreal’s passing game, now led by Davis Alexander, averaged 251.6 yards per game in 2024 and features playmakers like Kaion Julien-Grant. Toronto’s secondary was a weak point, surrendering 321.7 passing yards per game (last in CFL) and a 71.7% completion rate. Montreal’s quick-strike passing can exploit this, especially at home, where they averaged 25.3 points per game. With Toronto’s run game and Montreal’s passing attack poised to capitalize on defensive vulnerabilities, the Over is a solid pick.

World Cup Qualifying Europe Group Stage - Rotation #225285/225286 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-105) – Czech Republic vs Montenegro, Friday at 2:45 ET - Czech Republic at home favored big here. Montenegro has been scoring some goals so confidence is up on their side as well. This one sets up well for goals based on these factors. Also, Czech Republic has won 3 straight matches and all totaled at least 3 goals as it was a 4-0 win preceded by a pair of 2-1 victories including one in Nations League action. Montenegro has scored 7 goals in the last 3 matches including one in Nations League action. Before a 1-0 win over the Faroe Islands - a mismatch - Montenegro did allow 4 goals last 3 matches and now they face a much tougher foe. We see the confident visitors getting on the board here but the hosts ultimately prevailing in a match that gets to at least a 2-1 final based on the above. We are big on the over in this one on Friday. The last 3 Czech Republic matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and the last 3 meetings between these nations also have all totaled at least 3 goals. This is a double perfect spot being tested here! 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Golden State Valkryies at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - These two teams have been UNDER plays this season with a combined 3-10-1 combined UNDER record in 2025. It adds up as the Valkyrie are the worst offense in the league, while Phoenix is better, they aren’t great. GST has an Offensive Net rating of 91.2, which is the second worst number in the W. Phoenix ranks 10th in ONR at 96.3. Golden State is 13th in overall shooting at 36.8%, also last in 3PT% at 27.5%. Phoenix is currently 9th in both FG% and 3PT% shooting. Both teams average less than 78ppg and in this scenario we don’t see either topping 75-points in this game. Bet UNDER!

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants simply can not score runs and they are on an incredible run of low-scoring games.  15 of the Giants last 16 games have totaled 7 or less runs.  Of the 15 that did, 14 of those totaled 6 or less runs.  So we are comfortable even though this total has dropped from a 7.5 to a 7 as of early afternoon Wednesday.  4 of the last 5 Padres games have totaled 5 or less runs.  Also, the pitchers here are expected to be Pivetta and Harrison.  Pivetta is having a strong season with a 2.74 ERA and he has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts!  Harrison has held hitters to a .160 batting average thus far.  Granted he has made only 2 starts and 4 appearances out of the bullpen this season but he looks strong.  Also, the Giants bullpen has the #1 ERA in the majors and the Padres bullpen right up there too with the #3 ERA in the majors.  Our computer math model projects a total of only 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 GOALS Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers Game 1 Wednesday - Both teams are offensive juggernauts, with Edmonton leading the playoffs in goals per game (4.06) and high-danger shots (146), while Florida ranks third in goals per game (3.88) and leads in high-danger shot conversion (31.7% shooting percentage). Their regular-season meetings this year further support this bet, with games totaling 11 goals (Florida 6-5 win) and 7 goals (Florida 4-3 win). Additionally, the Over has hit in 5 of Florida’s last 6 road games against Edmonton and 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 games against Florida. Despite strong goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky (2.11 GAA, .912 SV%) and Stuart Skinner (1.73 GAA, .931 SV% since May 10), the offensive depth—led by Connor McDavid (26 playoff points) for Edmonton and Sam Bennett (10 playoff goals) for Florida—suggests goals will come in bunches. We expect a fast-paced, high-scoring Game 1.

World Cup Qualifying North Central America Second Round - Rotation #225201/225202 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-133) – Dominica vs British Virgin Islands, Wednesday at 3 ET - Including World Cup Qualifying action and Nations League action from last year, the British Virgin Islands allowed an average of 2.3 goals per game. That includes allowing 3 and 4 goals, respectively, in their two World Cup Qualifying matches.  While it is true that they often struggle to score, the British Virgin Islands will take advantage of a Dominica side that is willing to take some risks with aggressive attacking. That is why Dominica allowed 25 goals in their 7 games in those two competitions last year.  They were shutout twice by tougher foes but scored 8 goals in the other 5 matches and Dominica is a heavy favorite here because of their goals-scoring potential and the defensive frailties of this British Virgin Islands side. Look for plenty of scoring here based on all of the above. We are strong on the over in this one. Last June each club also had two matches in this competition and both of the British Virgin Islands matches totaled at least 3 goals and both of the Dominica matches totaled at least 5 goals! That makes this is a double perfect spot as the high-scoring trend for these two when in World Cup Qualifying action continues with yet another one totaling at least 3 goals. 

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (+100) – Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - When you see a match-up in a series in which the first game was 3-2 and in which the second game features two pitchers with ERA numbers each below 2.80 on the season and yet the total is going up from an 8 to an 8.5 in some books you know there is a reason! Indeed there is plenty to like about the over in this match-up. It is going to be a very hot day in Cincinnati and so a warm evening and the type of weather in which this ballpark plays out well for the hitters. Also the Brewers have won 8 straight games and, if you subtract extra innings scoring, still have put up a solid 45 runs in those 8 games! As for the Reds, prior to yesterday's 3-2 home loss, they had been scoring very well at home. In fact, Cincinnati entered this series having won 5 of the last 7 home games and scoring an average of 5.6 runs per game during that stretch. The two bullpens here have both had their challenges this season with the Reds at a 4.01 ERA and the Brewers at a 4.49 ERA. Milwaukee has been heating up at the plate with a slugging percentage ranking in the top 8 in the majors both L7 days and L15 days. About the starting pitching match-up, even though Peralta has good numbers this season, he has struggled in his last two road starts and was fortunate the damage was limited in the most recent one. Those starts were at Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Peralta allowed 9 hits and walked 6 and allowed 5 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings over those 2 starts. Now he pitches in hitter-friendly Cincinnati! As for Reds starter Hunter Greene, since he came back from the groin injury he has not looked the same. He lasted just 4 innings in his first start back and had command issues and then he allowed 7 hits in 5 innings and his strikeouts were way down in his 2nd start. Facing a Brewers team that is the hottest in the majors right now will surely not help him in this one! Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.

Iceland Premier League Rotation #216629/216630 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.75 Goals (-133) – Fram at Valur, Monday at 3:15 ET - Follow the money here. The over has been getting steamed and we do expect a big home pitch effort from Valur here. They are big favorites on the goal line and known for scoring well at home. Fram should be good for some goal-scoring well as they consistently score. Look for an attack-first approach style from each side in this one and Valur will be especially aggressive at home which will force the tempo of this match to be a fast one. Those types of matches are often seen in Icelandic action and we will be involved some throughout the summer in the leagues here and in other Northern areas that play the bulk of their seasons through the summer months. We are very strong on the over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 163.5 Phoenix Mercury at LA Sparks, 6pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is equal to the league average for WNBA games this season. To cash this bet we essentially need these teams to play ‘average’. These teams have met once this season and produced 175 total points. The game featured 135 total field goal attempts, which is exactly league average. Neither team shot especially well in that first meeting either and they still produced enough points to cash the Over easily. Phoenix hasn’t scored a ton of point per game this season but they’ve also faced 4 of the leagues top defenses. LA has allowed 82+ points in 5 of seven games this season, 88+ in four of those. Our model is projecting 174.6 total points and we agree with the number.

Italian Serie B Rotation #201405/201406 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Spezia vs Cremonese, Sunday at 2:30 ET - Smaller rated play here (non-top) as there is a price to lay to have the under 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it. We expect both clubs to struggle offensively and would be surprised to see both clubs score. Even if they did it could still very well end up a 1-1 draw here. There is just not enough firepower with each club here and also the low-scoring expectation relates to the fact that this is the 2nd Leg of a battle to earn promotion to Serie A for next season!  By virtue of having an advantage in record, Spezia needs only a draw to advance and plus they are the hosts here.  So look for a very defensive-minded approach from Spezia here and they were one of the top defensive clubs in the league this season.  The first leg was a 0-0 battle with very few scoring chances.  We could see a similar result here.  Only the visitors, Cremonese, need to try to score and they will also likely play conservative at first and prefer to wait until later in the match before doing too much risk-taking.  That said, another 0-0 would not shock and, at the most, we would expect a 1-0 or 1-1 battle in this one.  We will take the under here. 

ASA NBA play on OVER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers, Game 6 Saturday, 8pm ET - We are getting a couple buckets of value here after Game 5’s finish of 205 total points. That O/U was 223.5 so let’s bet contrarian here and play the OVER. The Knicks didn’t have a great 3PT shooting night in G5 at 28% and the Pacers hit just 41% overall and 33% from the 3PT line. In the two games they have lost to NY the Pacers allowed the Knicks to dictate tempo which was slower than normal. In the three games they’ve won, the Pacers have looked to push the ball in transition and create early opportunities for drive-kicks or finish at the rims. The three wins by the Pacers featured 250 total points (in regulation), 223 and 251 total points. Indiana has an Offensive Net Rating of 117 in the playoffs, the Knicks are at 112.8. We like the Pacers to shoot much better at home in this game after a very poor showing in New York. The Knicks with KAT and Brunson are more than capable of putting up points in this potential elimination game. We like the OVER here!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 173 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams with the first meeting finishing with 189 total points. We don’t see those results changing here, even though the Wings are without #1 pick Paige Bueckers. There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113. They have allowed 91+ points in all five games and two of those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points two games ago then put up 92 versus the Sky. Dallas has the 4th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 107.3 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 4th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

#915/916 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs (+100) – Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:07 PM ET - The Athletics are in a horrible slump and have lost 14 of 15 games.  The Athletics have scored an average of only 2.8 runs per game in those 14 losses.  So look for the Athletics to struggle to score here but also look for another quality start from Jeffrey Springs.  The southpaw has struggled at home in the Athletics temporary hitter-friendly park in Sacramento.  However, on the road he is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and opponents hitting just .179 against him!  So we don't expect much from the Blue Jays lineup here either.  Toronto is off a surprising 12-0 win yesterday.  Prior to that rare blowout win, the Blue Jays scored an average of just 1 run per game their last  6 games!  Also, Toronto starter Chris Bassitt is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his 5 home starts this season!  He should dominate this slumping Athletics lineup here.  Our computer math model projecting a total of only 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky, 8pm ET - There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113.6. They have allowed 91+ points in all four games and two those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points last time out and rank 5th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 105.4 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 5th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - Game 1 of this series finished UNDER the total with just 202 total points being scored as the Wolves had a horrible shooting night at 35% overall, 29% from beyond the arc. The last three games though have gone OVER the total with results of 221, 244 and 254 total points being scored. The average field goal attempts in this series is right at the season average for the entire league and both teams are shooting near their regular season average of 47.9% (OKC) and 46.6% (Minn) in this series. The pace of play has been slightly slower in this series than the league average pace in the regular season. What we are getting at is this…the average total points scored in a regular season NBA game was 227 this season. If these two teams were involved in a regular season game this season it averaged 224.7 points p/game. Six of the last eight meeting have gone OVER the number in this rivalry with all 6 of those games finishing with 218 or more total points being scored. Neither defense was able to contain the others offense in the last game with both teams hitting 51% of their FGA’s. There is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 8pm ET - Carolina got a much-needed win in Game 4 but still trail this series 1-3. Florida had a few key injuries in Reinhart, Greer and Mikkola but all three skated in an optional practice on Wednesday and may be available tonight. After the 0-3 shutout loss we expect the Panthers to be back on their offensive game which scored 5, 5 and 6-goals in the previous three games. In three of the four games of this series, we have seen 48 or more total shots on goal. That high volume should continue tonight and gives us a solid advantage with an OVER wager. In five of the seven meetings between these two teams this season, one of the two teams has scored 5+ goals themselves. We are betting OVER in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164 Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics, 7:30pm ET - Do you find it strange that Caitlyn Clark won’t be in the lineup tonight and yet the OVER was bet up on this game? The line opened 157.5, was bet up as high as 164 and is not fluctuating back and forth between 163-164. The ‘Joe’s’ money pushed this number up and now the ‘Pro’s’ money is coming in on the UNDER. Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a little over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. The Fever play at the fastest pace in the league but that is with Caitlyn Clark pushing the tempo on every possession. Clark is out tonight so we expect the Fever to play at a more deliberate pace and focus on getting Boston as many touches as possible in the paint. Washington plays slower at 96.36 possessions per game (7th) and has problems scoring at 78.4ppg (10th). Indiana has been much better defensively than expected this season with a DNR of 93.2, 3rd best number in the W. Washington ranks 7th in DNR at 98.5. The Mystics have put up 74, 72 and 62 points in their last three games in three straight UNDERS.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164.5 Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7PM ET - Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a touch over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. We don’t see these two offensively challenged teams getting to 160 or more total points. The Sun are second to last in the league in Offensive Net rating at 87.5 with the worst eFG% of 41.4%. The Sun are shooting just .376% overall and .263% from Deep. Dallas isn’t much better. The Wings are 8th in ONR at 98.2 with an eFG% of .442 which ranks 10h worst (out of 13 teams) in the W. Dallas hit’s just .292% of their 3-point attempts and shoots .397% overall. Defensively, both teams are allowing over 83ppg on the season, but both have faced some of the league’s best offenses which has inflated those numbers. We expect a game in the 150’s here. Bet UNDER!

#929/930 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 10:07 PM ET - The Marlins had 14 hits last night but were held to 4 runs.  Miami should be swinging the bats well again tonight and with a little more clutch hitting they will get well past 4 runs.  Angels starter Jose Soriano has made 4 starts at home this season and one was good but he has consistently struggled in each of the other 3 with 13 earned runs allowed in 13 and 2/3 innings over the other 3 starts at home!  Cal Quantrill is also likely to struggle here.  The Marlins starter had a good first road outing this season but has lasted only 17 innings in the 4 road starts since then as he has been pounded to the tune of 18 earned runs in those.  Quantrill has a tough assignment tonight which will make things even more difficult for him in terms of his road struggles.  Quantrill is on his 3rd team in 3 seasons and has an ERA above the 5.00 mark from 2023 through the present.  Now he faces an Angels team that is the top slugging team in the majors the last 15 days as they have slugged 26 homers in their 13 games in the 15-day stretch.  Both the 26 homers and the .502 slugging percentage leading the majors last 15 days!  They are red hot and have won 8 straight games but their bullpen has a 6.57 ERA which is dead last in the majors and the Marlins aren't much better with a 5.09 ERA for their bullpen.  The consistent high-scoring trend in Angels games (8-game winning streak averaging 12 runs a game) likely continues here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.  

ASA NHL play OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 - Hurricanes vs. Panthers Saturday, May 24 8pm ET - We like the Hurricanes-Panthers Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET Over 5.5 goals. Florida leads the playoffs with 45 goals (3.75 per game) and 82 high-danger shots. Carolina’s +16 goal differential and 46.6% offensive zone time signal scoring potential. Game 1 hit seven goals, and Andersen’s .877 high-danger save percentage in that game suggests vulnerabilities. In Game 2 the Panthers put up 5 goals on just 21 shots. In the last nine meetings between these two teams, one has managed to score 4+ goals in seven of those contests. If one of these teams gets to 4 this game should go Over easily. With Carolina down 2-0, expect an open, high-scoring game.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201229/201230 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-110) – AC Milan vs Monza, Saturday at 2:45 ET - As we had mentioned in a recent write-up on AC Milan, they had switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation and we liked what we were seeing from them on the attack. However, this more aggressive attacking can also leave a team vulnerable to counterattacks. That said, it comes as no surprise that AC Milan is allowing 1.5 goals per match this month in Serie A and Coppa Italia action.  The key here for AC Milan is they are wrapping up what has been a disappointing season by their standards and they are at home and they are taking on a club (Monza) that has been one of the worst clubs we've seen at the Serie A level in quite some time!  With that said, you can expect AC Milan to be relentless here with attacking as they look to take out a season-long period of frustration on an out-classed foe.  Monza won't be able to keep up here but should be good for at least a goal or two while AC Milan likely get to at least 3 on their own.  AC Milan is a very large favorite here and they will take advantage of a Monza club that has allowed 2 goals per match on the road this season.  Entering this one Monza has scored 3 goals the last two matches so their goal-scoring confidence is up and they are playing relaxed knowing already they are being relegated.  AC Milan also playing relaxed football now too knowing that they already missed out on a coveted top six spot in Serie A.  The key here is AC Milan at home and pushing the tempo and wanting to finish a dismal season on a high note for their fans.  They will be attacking constantly in this one no matter the score and, given the circumstances, we like the odds on a rather wide-open affair here to lead to at least 4 goals. We are very strong on the over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a rematch from the season opener in Phoenix which the Mercury won 81-59 as a +5-point underdog. The game stayed well below the O/U of 158 with 140 total points being scored. There is no reason to expect different results in tonight’s game. Seattle was one of the worst shooting teams in the W a year ago and in the first meeting they hit just 33% overall and18% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 for the Storm they faced a Dallas team that isn’t great defensively yet and shot better at 41% but the two teams combined for 150 total points. Phoenix is coming off a higher scoring game against the Sparks who had the 3rd worst Defensive Net Rating a year ago. The Mercury are 12th in FGA’s on the season and play at the 2nd slowest pace in the league. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the W. Seattle was a top 4 defense a year ago and playing with revenge so don’t expect the Mercury to get into the 80’s again here. With a slow tempo, one solid defense and a poor shooting team involved we don’t see this game getting to 160.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - If the Pacers were a cereal, they would be Lucky Charms! The three last-minute wins they have had in the playoffs are absolutely remarkable with the most recent borderline miraculous. Historically, teams trailing by 9+ points with less than 1-minute to play in a playoff game were 0-1414 going into Wednesday. Indiana is now that 1 team with a ‘W’. We are betting on the value and UNDER in this game after that emotional Game 1. The O/U in G1 was 221.5 so we are getting an extra possession and points with this play today. We expect a regression with both teams shooting as each hit 51% overall, the Pacers made 15/37 3-pointers for 41% and attempted 28 free throws. NY didn’t shoot as well from three at 32% but did attempt 40 FT’s, making 28. This series is about to get very physical and the team that locks down defensively is going to win. NY understands their best option to win is to NOT get into a fast paced – shootout game which Indiana prefers so expect a deliberate pace from the Knicks and a more focused effort on the defensive end of the court.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201209/201210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-106) – Como vs Inter Milan, Monday at 2:45 ET - Great spot for goals.  Inter Milan will give it their all here as they still have a shot at the #1 spot in the league if Napoli falls short versus Cagliari. That said, look for an aggressive attacking approach from Inter Milan in this one but Como will also be doing their best to stifle those slim Inter Milan hopes. Como averaging 1.6 goals per match when at home this season! Inter Milan one of the highest scoring clubs in the league all season and averaging 2 goals per match. Como has scored 1.8 goals last 5 matches. Inter Milan has scored 2.4 goals per match last 5 matches across all competitions. This one sets up well for quite the battle even if Inter Milan also peeking ahead to the match with PSG in Champions League next week! This one has 2-2 written all over it. We are strong on the over in this one. 

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - In Game 1 we were on the Over along with the Sharps who hammered the opening number from 214 to 219. The game obviously stayed below the number and we expected the Books to open this number closer to the closing line of G1 than the opener. As we are writing this analysis the O/U on this game has started to move up again to 215.5 despite a vast majority of tickets/money on the Under. We agree with the move and feel this line should be 224. Minnesota had a poor shooting night of 35% overall and 29% from Deep in G1 and scored 25 or less points in all 4 quarters. Granted, part of that is due to great defense by the Thunder, but we expect a positive regression to the norm for the Wolves who have an Offensive Net Rating of 112.4 in the playoffs. The Wolves shot 46.7% in the regular season and 37.3% from beyond the arc which was the 4th best percentage in the NBA. OKC is going to put up points as they have done all season and playoffs long. The Thunder are scoring 116.8ppg in the post season despite a lower-than-normal EFG%. OKC had a EFG% of 56% during the regular season which has dipped to 52.4% in the playoffs so it’s likely we see that number moving up as the playoffs progress. In four of the last five meetings these two teams have scored 217 or more total points. After a ‘feeling out’ in Game 1 we expect both offenses to put up 110+ points.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 162.5 LA Sparks at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - Let’s start with an ‘average’ W game a season ago finished with roughly 164 total points per game. This O/U is slightly lower than that, but our model suggests 158.7 total points being scored. It’s very early in the season and both teams have completely different identities from last year, but both have played slow to start the season ranking 11th and 12th in pace of play. They are both near average in Offensive Net Rating, but the defenses have been well above average with the Sparks ranking 4th in DNR, the Mercury are 2nd. Phoenix held Seattle to 33% shooting overall and 18% from beyond the arc in their season opener. The Sparks allowed the Lynx to score 89-points in their last game, but the Lynx are arguably the best team in the W. Los Angeles had just 60 total FGA’s in that game and shot above expectations to get to 75-points. At the end of the day this O/U is set at essentially an ‘average’ WNBA game but that won’t be the case with a slower pace and solid defenses. We like Under!

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars – 8pm ET - Dallas has been a strong UNDER bet with 37 Overs, 52 Under and 8 ties in their last 97 games. Of the 95 games involving the Stars this season, 62 have finished with 6 or less goals. Edmonton has an O/U record of 20-26-1 on the road this season and are 41-50-2 on the season. After a shaky start to the playoffs, Oilers netminder Skinner has been great in his last two starts with 0 goals allowed on 47 total shots against Vegas. The Stars goalie Oettinger has been a brick wall in the playoffs with only 7 goals allowed in his last 4 starts and a .942 Save Percentage. The Oilers have had their struggles on the road with zero power play goals in the postseason. Dallas is averaging 2.92 goals per game in the playoffs but it’s going to be tough to get to 3 goals against this Edmonton defense that is off two straight shutouts.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 4-3 through 5 innings and then shockingly stayed that way!  We say shockingly because this match-up features the bottom two bullpens in the entire AL based on ERA and also because the Athletics temporary home this season has proven to be hitter-friendly.  It will be another very warm day in Sacramento today and the ball will carry very well here in this one.  Athletics starter Gunnar Hoglund gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and the young right-hander has allowed 16 baserunners in less than 12 innings over his last two starts.  The Angels start veteran Kyle Hendricks here and he was 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA with the Cubs last season.  He went 3-5 with a 7.08 ERA on the road last season.  This season thus far Hendricks is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his five road starts.  The Athletics did not hit well on their recent road trip but now in their 2nd game back home and facing a struggling righty, we look for the A's bats to get going again.  Their slugging percentage this season ranks 8th in the majors and they had scored 5 runs per game in the last dozen home games prior to yesterday's 4-3 loss.  The Angels stayed hot with that win yesterday and they have scored 5.2 runs per game in going a respectable 8-5 last 13 games.  Prior to this series, 7 of the last 9 Athletics home games have totaled double digits and they are a more confident hitting team in this venue.  The Angels are also very confident right now at the plate and we don't see any way these sub-par bullpens do again tonight what they did yesterday.  At the same time, both starters are likely to struggle here for the reasons we noted above.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 14 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 or 12 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#527/528 ASA PLAY ON Over 217.5 Points – Minnesota Timberwolves vs OKC Thunder, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - This total is set too low in our opinion and we’re on the Over. In their 4 meetings this season, OKC and Minnesota averaged just under 226 total points and in 3 of those 4 games the total was set at 227 or higher. Going back further, in their last 10 meetings these 2 have had just one total set lower than 227 points. We expect an up tempo game with the Thunder playing at the 2nd fastest pace thus far in the playoffs after ranking in the top 5 in that metric during the regular season. OKC is averaging 94 shot attempts per game in the playoffs which is #1 while Minnesota is launching 85 shot attempts per game in the post season. The Thunder haven’t shot the ball great in the playoffs (45% overall and 32% from 3) well below their regular season averages, yet they are still are averaging 117 PPG. At home, that number rises to 126 PPG in the playoffs scoring at least 112 in all 6 of their home tilts in the post season. Minnesota has been shooting below their season average FG and 3 point % as well, yet they are still averaging 108 PPG in the playoffs and that includes 2 terrible offensive performances putting up 85 and 88 points vs the Lakers and Warrior respectively. In those 2 losses Minnesota was 10 of 54 (18%) from 3 which was not the norm for a team that hit 38% of their triples (4th in the NBA) on the season. Minus those 2 poor offensive efforts, the TWolves are averaging 114 PPG in the post season. These two teams have combined to play 21 playoff games this season and 13 of those have reached at least 217 total points. Both teams rank in the top 5 in Offensive Rating in the playoffs and NBA Overs are on a 28-13 run going into tonight’s game. This one goes Over the total.