PAGE_HEADER

ASA CFL play on OVER 51.5 Roughriders at Tiger Cats – 7pm ET - The Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0) face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1) on June 14, 2025, at Tim Hortons Field, with the Over 52 total points our wager on this game. Saskatchewan’s Week 1 win (31-26 over Ottawa) showcased QB Trevor Harris’s efficiency (73% completion, 277 yards, 2 TDs) and a turnover-forcing defense (best in 2024), bolstered by new RB Ka’Deem Carey (1,060 yards in 2024). Hamilton’s Week 1 loss (38-26 to Calgary) highlighted their pass-heavy attack (Bo Levi Mitchell: 300+ yards) and 2024 league-leading 5.23 yards per play, though their run defense struggled (150+ yards allowed). With Saskatchewan’s efficient 13.18 yards per point and Hamilton’s 13.94, plus fast-paced offenses (0.0192 and 0.0189 plays per second, respectively), the CFL’s three-down format and these teams’ scoring trends (26.6 and 25.5 PPG in 2024) support a high-scoring game, much like last year with 63 and 56 points being scored in two meetings.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 168.5 Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces – 10pm ET - These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league which means we will get a high possession game between these two teams. LV averages 96.98 possessions per game (3rd), the Wings average 96.82 (4th). Neither team will face much opposition defensively as the Wings have the 11th rated DNR at 109.3, the Aces have been a major disappointment on that end of the court with the 9th rated DNR at 103.5. The Aces allow opponents to make 47.3% of their FGA’s (10th), Dallas rank 11th in that same defensive category allowing foes to hit 46.7% of their attempts. The Wings give up nearly 90ppg on the season, while the Aces allow 83.9ppg, which ranks in the bottom 4 of the W. Las Vegas will be without reigning MVP Wilson in this game but they still have capable scorers in Gray and Young who should step up with Wilson sidelined. The Wings got rookie PG Bueckers back from injury in their last game who promptly scored 35-points in her return. Strangely, this line opened much lower than the current number and was bet up after the news of Wilson’s injury. We will back the move and BET OVER!

ASA CFL play on UNDER 50 BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 8:30 pm ET - We are betting UNDER in this game with our model projecting 44.7 total points as the O/U. BC has a game under their belt after 31-14 win over Edmonton last week. The Lions exploded for 28-points in the second half after putting up just 3-points at the break. This week it’s going to be much tougher for the Lions and QB Rourke to move the ball and put up points against a Blue Bombers defense that allowed 20.3ppg in 2024, the lowest number in the CFL. Winnipeg gave up the fewest yards per game at 329.7 a year ago and are projected to be just as good on that side of the football in 2025. The Blue Bombers will be without their starting QB Zac Collaros in the opener who is suspended for this game. Collaros led the CFL with 420 completions, 5,451 passing yards and 32 TD’s in 2024. That means the BB’s will lean on RB Oliveira, the league MOP in 2024, to carry the load offensively. BC is solid defensively as they showed last week allowing just 14-points to Edmonton, who averaged 28ppg in 2024. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest YPG last season and PPG at 24.4ppg. In the three meetings last season these two teams produced 50-points, then 25 and 31. We like the trend of the two most recent meetings to continue and will be on the UNDER here!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 167.5 LA Sparks at Las Vegas Aces, 10pm ET - These teams recently met in Las Vegas and produced 177 total points. That game went OVER the number of 167. Clearly the oddsmakers feel they were right with that number just over a week ago and are baiting bettors to play OVER in this game. In that game, both teams shot well above season averages with the Sparks hitting 47% overall and 29% from the 3-point line. Las Vegas sot 46% overall and 48% from Deep. There were 136 field goal attempts which is slightly higher than the league average of 133.8. We expect a regression in shooting tonight as the Sparks rank 5th in the league in FG% at 43.5%. The Aces are the 2nd worst shooting team in the W at 39.2%. After being the 5th best defensive team in the league the Aces have slipped to 8th this season. They are coming off a humbling loss to Golden State in which they allowed 95-points to the expansion Valkyries. The Sparks have had some issues on the defensive end of the court ranking 10th in DNR, but this is a big rivalry and they are coming off a solid showing against GST in which they allowed 78-points in regulation. Play contrarian here and put yourself of the UNDER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - We expect plenty of field goal attempts, made shots and points in this Western Conference showdown. Both teams could be getting key contributors back tonight as rookie Paige Bueckers is projected to play for the Wings and Alyssa Thomas could be in the lineup for the Mercury. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 97.08 possessions per game. The Mercury are around league average in pace at 96.54. Phoenix is 4th in the league in Defensive Net rating but the Wings are 3rd to last in DNR. The Wings are the highest scoring team in the league at 81.6ppg, Phoenix is11th at 78.6, but let’s not forget they have been without All-WNBA player Thomas and here 15.2ppg for the past 5 games. In the last four meetings between these two teams, one has scored 97+ points and the O/U is 4-0 with the games averaging 192.5ppg. 

ASA NBA play on UNDER 228.5 OKC Thunder at Indiana Pacers Game 3 8:30 pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet in the last game but will zig-zag here and play UNDER in Game 3. In Game 2 these two teams had huge 3rd and 4th quarters with 67 and 63 combined points. In the game there were 164 field goal attempts which is 14 less than the league average this season. These teams are averaging 100 possessions per game in this series and both teams Offensive Net ratings has dropped significantly in the first two games compared to the rest of the previous playoff series. OKC’s defense is suffocating with a Defensive Net rating of 109 in this series. The Thunder have an EFG% of 50.8% which is well below their season average of 56%. With the regression in pace of play, a shift to a new venue, defensive intensity from both teams in this crucial Game 3 we expect a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

Spain La Liga 2 Playoffs: Rotation #202009/202010 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Real Oviedo vs Almeria, Wednesday at 3 ET - Strong spot for an under in the 2nd leg of this match-up.  The 1st Leg was a 2-1 Real Oviedo win and now they will look to stifle Almeria here and hang on to complete the victory.  We like the fact that Real Oviedo has allowed only an average of only 0.5 goals in going undefeated in the last 10 matches.  Yes, just 5 goals allowed in the last 10 matches.  Almeria has also been strong defensively.  Prior to allowing 2 goals in the 1st Leg of this battle, Almeria allowed only 3 goals in the last 6 matches for an average of 0.5 goals per match.  Given the situation and the recent defensive-minded performances of each of these clubs, we will confidently take the under here.   

World Cup Qualifying Europe Group Stage - Rotation #225397/225398 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-100) – Croatia vs Czech Republic, Monday at 2:45 ET - Confidence up for Croatia after working out the kinks in an easy 7-0 win over Gibraltar.  Between World Championship Qualifying matches and Nations League matches, Czech Republic certainly has their goal-scoring confidence up as they have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.  They have averaged 2.5 goals scored in those 4 games and they bring plenty of confidence to this battle with Croatia.  These are the top two sides in this group and so this is a key battle and we look for both clubs to push hard for the victory and can't see either delivering a clean sheet either.  All of this translates to a 2-1 final at a minimum the way we see it and Over is the bet in this one.  

ASA NBA play on OVER 227.5 Indiana Pacers at OKC Thunder – Game 2 8pm ET - The Pacers had 20 turnovers in the first half of Game 1 and managed just 45 points. Now that they have the jitters out, they should be much better in that aspect in Game 2. Not to mention they now have zero pressure on them after stealing G1. OKC put up 110 points despite a bad shooting night of 40% overall, well below season standards of 47.7% (7th). The Pacers defense was 23rd this season in FG% defense allowing 47% so we can bet the Thunder have a much better shooting performance in G2. These teams got to 221 in the first game of this series despite the turnovers and poor shooting. There were 180 field goal attempts in G1 which is above the league average for the entire NBA during the regula season. These two teams have Offensive Net ratings of 115.4 (OKC) and 117.1 (IND) in the playoffs. In G1 they both had ONR's less than 109. We expect a return to the longterm statistical data in this one. They In the previous seven meetings between these two teams, they have combined for 232 or more points in every game. We expect a ton of points tonight.

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - We are surprised this total has been holding at 10.5 runs and it is go time now as we love the value on the over here.  In Friday's game, the Mets went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position and the Rockies went 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position.  Then, in Saturday's game, the Mets went 3 for 14 with runners in scoring position and Colorado went 0 for 8.  There have been so many chances for some bigger innings in this series and it just has not yet come together.  The Rockies had a bullpen game Friday so the Mets have already seen most of the Rockies relievers in this series already plus these teams met last week In New York too.  There is a lot of familiarity and we look for a high-scoring series finale here with very nice weather conditions for this afternoon game at Coors Field.  The Mets start Tylor Megill and he struggled badly (10 hits in 4 innings) in his lone career start here.  Coors Field is so tough on pitchers and Megill enters this one off a start in which he struggled early versus the Dodgers.  If he gets in another early hole early at Colorado it is much tougher for a pitcher to turn things around in this ballpark.  As for Rockies starter Chase Dollander, he has pitched quite well on the road this season but the young hurler has struggled in his starts here in Denver.  There have already been 41 hits in the first two games of this series and we saw some big homers here yesterday.  Dolander and this Rockies bullpen will struggle to contain the Mets here. Dollander had one decent home start this season but the other 3 saw him allow 19 runs (16 earned) in just 12 innings on this mound!  Our computer math model projecting 12 to 13 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one. 

UEFA Nations League Final - Rotation #234013/234014 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.75 Goals (-120) – Portugal vs Spain, Sunday at 3 ET - Yes it is the final and will be played a little more tightly at first.  But watch what happens once that first goal goes in!  The fact is we just don't see all the big-time scoring in Spain's games suddenly coming to a screeching halt!  Spain has scored an average of 3 goals in their last 8 Nations League matches.  They have also conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches in the Nations League.  Portugal will be challenging the questionable defense of Spain early on this one.  Portugal has averaged scoring 2.2 goals in their 9 Nations League matches.  We don't see this Spain side suddenly changing their style of play as the attacking and willingness to get into high-scoring battles is what has brought them to this point and they are the favorites for a reason. In other words, the goals should fly in this one as Spain will look to push the tempo.  

ASA CFL play on OVER 49 Edmonton Elks vs. BC Lions, 10pm ET - The BC Lions, led by dynamic quarterback Nathan Rourke, averaged 26.3 points per game in 2024 with a league-leading 412.7 offensive yards per game, with 328.7 of those yards coming via the pass. Edmonton, now quarterbacked by Cody Fajardo, is expected to improve from their 2024 offensive numbers. Fajardo threw for over 3,100 yards last season with Montreal with a 16/7 TD/INT ration. The Elks feature a strong running game led by Justin Rankin and Javon Leake, who rushed for a combined 1,400 yards last season. Edmonton’s allowed 27.8 points per game (3rd most) and BC’s defense conceded 24.4 points per game. The Elks allowed the most passing YPG a year ago at 300PYPG and can be exploited through the air. BC has one of the best receiving corps in the CFL and have high expectations for QB Rourke, who is coming off a down year. New head coach Buck Pierce, formerly Winnipeg’s O-Coordinator, wants to open up the offense, play fast and utilize his big play receivers to their full potential. This is a big game to start the season for both teams and we expect each offense to put up a big number in this game.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 154.5 Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams so they are very familiar with the others style of play. The first two games both stayed UNDER with 147 and 140 total points. That has been a trend for this series as 7 straight meetings have stayed below the posted O/U. Seattle is the 2nd slowest paced team in the W, the Mercury are around league average. Both are very good defensively with the Mercury having the 3rd best Defensive Net rating in the league, the Storm are 6th. Neither is great offensively with the Storm ranking 8th in Offensive rating the Mercury are 10th. These are two of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league so neither generate many second-chance opportunities. This is a low number at 154 but our model is projecting 150.3 total points. We agree and will bet UNDER here.

World Cup Qualifying Europe Group Stage - Rotation #225345/225346 ASA PLAY ON Over 2 Goals (-115) – Albania vs Serbia, Saturday at 2:45 ET - We understand the low total here as Serbia is known for a solid back-line but there is also a lot of attacking talent on both sides here and we feel this total has been set too low.  The value of 2 being a push is a big value but we do expect 3 or more here.  Serbia has so many attacking options and they have some big guys up front that are difficult to contain in front of the goal.  Albania has been boosted in terms of attacking talent leading into this match and also Serbia has allowed 5 goals in their last 3 played away from home. Albania got to take on a weaker foe in their most recent match and will be boosted by the easy 3-0 win.  They allowed multiple goals in their two matches before the win over Andorra and will have their hands full with Serbia here but, per all of the above, both clubs should get on the scoresheet here. Over is the bet in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings, 9:30pm ET - Defense, or the lack thereof is the driving factor of tonight’s wager. Dallas is 11th (out of 13) in the WNBA in Defensive Net rating at 107.1, the Sparks are 10th at 104.3. The Wings have allowed 83+ points in every game but one this season and allow teams to hit 45.6% (10th) of their FG attempts and 37.8% of their 3’s (11th). The Sparks D ranks 8th in both overall team FG% and 3PT% defense. LA has allowed 85+ points in 5 of their eight games this season. The Wings are the 2nd fastest paced team in the league and the Sparks play around league average. Both teams should have solid shooting nights with plenty of possessions to push this OVER 170+ total points.   

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Goals Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers, Friday 8pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet on Game 1 of the Finals but will flip to the UNDER in Game 2. These two teams got off to a fast start in the opener with 3 goals in the first 12:30 of the game. Then two more goals followed early in the 2nd period, but the defenses/goaltending settled in and were much better for the rest of the 2nd and 3rd period. Both teams have more than capable offenses but let’s not forget these two teams were 1st and 4th in Goals allowed per game at 2.39 (Panthers) and 2.82 (Oilers). Netminder Bobrovsky for the Panthers allowed 4 goals in Game 1 but that was on 46 shots by the Oilers. In his previous three playoff games he gave up 6 total goals on 91 attempts. Oilers goalie Skinner has given up 6 goals in his last two games but prior had allowed just 2 in three games on 88 shot attempts. This O/U number has been adjusted up and the value now lies on the UNDER 6.5 GOALS!

ASA CFL Over 47.5 Total Points – Toronto vs. Montreal, June 6, 2025 - In 2024, their four meetings had Over/Under lines of 51 or higher, with final scores totaling 50, 58, 65, and 58 points, clearing 47.5 in all four games. Both teams’ offensive strengths align to exploit defensive weaknesses, supporting a high-scoring affair. Toronto’s rushing attack, led by Ka’Deem Carey (1,060 yards, 7 TDs in 2024), averaged 121.3 yards per game and gashed Montreal for 500+ rushing yards across three games, including 234 in the Eastern Final. Montreal’s run defense, which allowed 115.9 yards per game and 7 yards per rush against Toronto, struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks and strong ground games, setting up Toronto to pile up points. Conversely, Montreal’s passing game, now led by Davis Alexander, averaged 251.6 yards per game in 2024 and features playmakers like Kaion Julien-Grant. Toronto’s secondary was a weak point, surrendering 321.7 passing yards per game (last in CFL) and a 71.7% completion rate. Montreal’s quick-strike passing can exploit this, especially at home, where they averaged 25.3 points per game. With Toronto’s run game and Montreal’s passing attack poised to capitalize on defensive vulnerabilities, the Over is a solid pick.

World Cup Qualifying Europe Group Stage - Rotation #225285/225286 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-105) – Czech Republic vs Montenegro, Friday at 2:45 ET - Czech Republic at home favored big here. Montenegro has been scoring some goals so confidence is up on their side as well. This one sets up well for goals based on these factors. Also, Czech Republic has won 3 straight matches and all totaled at least 3 goals as it was a 4-0 win preceded by a pair of 2-1 victories including one in Nations League action. Montenegro has scored 7 goals in the last 3 matches including one in Nations League action. Before a 1-0 win over the Faroe Islands - a mismatch - Montenegro did allow 4 goals last 3 matches and now they face a much tougher foe. We see the confident visitors getting on the board here but the hosts ultimately prevailing in a match that gets to at least a 2-1 final based on the above. We are big on the over in this one on Friday. The last 3 Czech Republic matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and the last 3 meetings between these nations also have all totaled at least 3 goals. This is a double perfect spot being tested here! 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Golden State Valkryies at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - These two teams have been UNDER plays this season with a combined 3-10-1 combined UNDER record in 2025. It adds up as the Valkyrie are the worst offense in the league, while Phoenix is better, they aren’t great. GST has an Offensive Net rating of 91.2, which is the second worst number in the W. Phoenix ranks 10th in ONR at 96.3. Golden State is 13th in overall shooting at 36.8%, also last in 3PT% at 27.5%. Phoenix is currently 9th in both FG% and 3PT% shooting. Both teams average less than 78ppg and in this scenario we don’t see either topping 75-points in this game. Bet UNDER!

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants simply can not score runs and they are on an incredible run of low-scoring games.  15 of the Giants last 16 games have totaled 7 or less runs.  Of the 15 that did, 14 of those totaled 6 or less runs.  So we are comfortable even though this total has dropped from a 7.5 to a 7 as of early afternoon Wednesday.  4 of the last 5 Padres games have totaled 5 or less runs.  Also, the pitchers here are expected to be Pivetta and Harrison.  Pivetta is having a strong season with a 2.74 ERA and he has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts!  Harrison has held hitters to a .160 batting average thus far.  Granted he has made only 2 starts and 4 appearances out of the bullpen this season but he looks strong.  Also, the Giants bullpen has the #1 ERA in the majors and the Padres bullpen right up there too with the #3 ERA in the majors.  Our computer math model projects a total of only 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 GOALS Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers Game 1 Wednesday - Both teams are offensive juggernauts, with Edmonton leading the playoffs in goals per game (4.06) and high-danger shots (146), while Florida ranks third in goals per game (3.88) and leads in high-danger shot conversion (31.7% shooting percentage). Their regular-season meetings this year further support this bet, with games totaling 11 goals (Florida 6-5 win) and 7 goals (Florida 4-3 win). Additionally, the Over has hit in 5 of Florida’s last 6 road games against Edmonton and 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 games against Florida. Despite strong goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky (2.11 GAA, .912 SV%) and Stuart Skinner (1.73 GAA, .931 SV% since May 10), the offensive depth—led by Connor McDavid (26 playoff points) for Edmonton and Sam Bennett (10 playoff goals) for Florida—suggests goals will come in bunches. We expect a fast-paced, high-scoring Game 1.

World Cup Qualifying North Central America Second Round - Rotation #225201/225202 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-133) – Dominica vs British Virgin Islands, Wednesday at 3 ET - Including World Cup Qualifying action and Nations League action from last year, the British Virgin Islands allowed an average of 2.3 goals per game. That includes allowing 3 and 4 goals, respectively, in their two World Cup Qualifying matches.  While it is true that they often struggle to score, the British Virgin Islands will take advantage of a Dominica side that is willing to take some risks with aggressive attacking. That is why Dominica allowed 25 goals in their 7 games in those two competitions last year.  They were shutout twice by tougher foes but scored 8 goals in the other 5 matches and Dominica is a heavy favorite here because of their goals-scoring potential and the defensive frailties of this British Virgin Islands side. Look for plenty of scoring here based on all of the above. We are strong on the over in this one. Last June each club also had two matches in this competition and both of the British Virgin Islands matches totaled at least 3 goals and both of the Dominica matches totaled at least 5 goals! That makes this is a double perfect spot as the high-scoring trend for these two when in World Cup Qualifying action continues with yet another one totaling at least 3 goals. 

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs (+100) – Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - When you see a match-up in a series in which the first game was 3-2 and in which the second game features two pitchers with ERA numbers each below 2.80 on the season and yet the total is going up from an 8 to an 8.5 in some books you know there is a reason! Indeed there is plenty to like about the over in this match-up. It is going to be a very hot day in Cincinnati and so a warm evening and the type of weather in which this ballpark plays out well for the hitters. Also the Brewers have won 8 straight games and, if you subtract extra innings scoring, still have put up a solid 45 runs in those 8 games! As for the Reds, prior to yesterday's 3-2 home loss, they had been scoring very well at home. In fact, Cincinnati entered this series having won 5 of the last 7 home games and scoring an average of 5.6 runs per game during that stretch. The two bullpens here have both had their challenges this season with the Reds at a 4.01 ERA and the Brewers at a 4.49 ERA. Milwaukee has been heating up at the plate with a slugging percentage ranking in the top 8 in the majors both L7 days and L15 days. About the starting pitching match-up, even though Peralta has good numbers this season, he has struggled in his last two road starts and was fortunate the damage was limited in the most recent one. Those starts were at Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Peralta allowed 9 hits and walked 6 and allowed 5 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings over those 2 starts. Now he pitches in hitter-friendly Cincinnati! As for Reds starter Hunter Greene, since he came back from the groin injury he has not looked the same. He lasted just 4 innings in his first start back and had command issues and then he allowed 7 hits in 5 innings and his strikeouts were way down in his 2nd start. Facing a Brewers team that is the hottest in the majors right now will surely not help him in this one! Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it only gets to 9 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.

Iceland Premier League Rotation #216629/216630 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.75 Goals (-133) – Fram at Valur, Monday at 3:15 ET - Follow the money here. The over has been getting steamed and we do expect a big home pitch effort from Valur here. They are big favorites on the goal line and known for scoring well at home. Fram should be good for some goal-scoring well as they consistently score. Look for an attack-first approach style from each side in this one and Valur will be especially aggressive at home which will force the tempo of this match to be a fast one. Those types of matches are often seen in Icelandic action and we will be involved some throughout the summer in the leagues here and in other Northern areas that play the bulk of their seasons through the summer months. We are very strong on the over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 163.5 Phoenix Mercury at LA Sparks, 6pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is equal to the league average for WNBA games this season. To cash this bet we essentially need these teams to play ‘average’. These teams have met once this season and produced 175 total points. The game featured 135 total field goal attempts, which is exactly league average. Neither team shot especially well in that first meeting either and they still produced enough points to cash the Over easily. Phoenix hasn’t scored a ton of point per game this season but they’ve also faced 4 of the leagues top defenses. LA has allowed 82+ points in 5 of seven games this season, 88+ in four of those. Our model is projecting 174.6 total points and we agree with the number.

Italian Serie B Rotation #201405/201406 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Spezia vs Cremonese, Sunday at 2:30 ET - Smaller rated play here (non-top) as there is a price to lay to have the under 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it. We expect both clubs to struggle offensively and would be surprised to see both clubs score. Even if they did it could still very well end up a 1-1 draw here. There is just not enough firepower with each club here and also the low-scoring expectation relates to the fact that this is the 2nd Leg of a battle to earn promotion to Serie A for next season!  By virtue of having an advantage in record, Spezia needs only a draw to advance and plus they are the hosts here.  So look for a very defensive-minded approach from Spezia here and they were one of the top defensive clubs in the league this season.  The first leg was a 0-0 battle with very few scoring chances.  We could see a similar result here.  Only the visitors, Cremonese, need to try to score and they will also likely play conservative at first and prefer to wait until later in the match before doing too much risk-taking.  That said, another 0-0 would not shock and, at the most, we would expect a 1-0 or 1-1 battle in this one.  We will take the under here. 

ASA NBA play on OVER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers, Game 6 Saturday, 8pm ET - We are getting a couple buckets of value here after Game 5’s finish of 205 total points. That O/U was 223.5 so let’s bet contrarian here and play the OVER. The Knicks didn’t have a great 3PT shooting night in G5 at 28% and the Pacers hit just 41% overall and 33% from the 3PT line. In the two games they have lost to NY the Pacers allowed the Knicks to dictate tempo which was slower than normal. In the three games they’ve won, the Pacers have looked to push the ball in transition and create early opportunities for drive-kicks or finish at the rims. The three wins by the Pacers featured 250 total points (in regulation), 223 and 251 total points. Indiana has an Offensive Net Rating of 117 in the playoffs, the Knicks are at 112.8. We like the Pacers to shoot much better at home in this game after a very poor showing in New York. The Knicks with KAT and Brunson are more than capable of putting up points in this potential elimination game. We like the OVER here!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 173 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams with the first meeting finishing with 189 total points. We don’t see those results changing here, even though the Wings are without #1 pick Paige Bueckers. There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113. They have allowed 91+ points in all five games and two of those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points two games ago then put up 92 versus the Sky. Dallas has the 4th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 107.3 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 4th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

#915/916 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs (+100) – Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:07 PM ET - The Athletics are in a horrible slump and have lost 14 of 15 games.  The Athletics have scored an average of only 2.8 runs per game in those 14 losses.  So look for the Athletics to struggle to score here but also look for another quality start from Jeffrey Springs.  The southpaw has struggled at home in the Athletics temporary hitter-friendly park in Sacramento.  However, on the road he is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and opponents hitting just .179 against him!  So we don't expect much from the Blue Jays lineup here either.  Toronto is off a surprising 12-0 win yesterday.  Prior to that rare blowout win, the Blue Jays scored an average of just 1 run per game their last  6 games!  Also, Toronto starter Chris Bassitt is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his 5 home starts this season!  He should dominate this slumping Athletics lineup here.  Our computer math model projecting a total of only 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky, 8pm ET - There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113.6. They have allowed 91+ points in all four games and two those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points last time out and rank 5th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 105.4 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 5th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - Game 1 of this series finished UNDER the total with just 202 total points being scored as the Wolves had a horrible shooting night at 35% overall, 29% from beyond the arc. The last three games though have gone OVER the total with results of 221, 244 and 254 total points being scored. The average field goal attempts in this series is right at the season average for the entire league and both teams are shooting near their regular season average of 47.9% (OKC) and 46.6% (Minn) in this series. The pace of play has been slightly slower in this series than the league average pace in the regular season. What we are getting at is this…the average total points scored in a regular season NBA game was 227 this season. If these two teams were involved in a regular season game this season it averaged 224.7 points p/game. Six of the last eight meeting have gone OVER the number in this rivalry with all 6 of those games finishing with 218 or more total points being scored. Neither defense was able to contain the others offense in the last game with both teams hitting 51% of their FGA’s. There is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 8pm ET - Carolina got a much-needed win in Game 4 but still trail this series 1-3. Florida had a few key injuries in Reinhart, Greer and Mikkola but all three skated in an optional practice on Wednesday and may be available tonight. After the 0-3 shutout loss we expect the Panthers to be back on their offensive game which scored 5, 5 and 6-goals in the previous three games. In three of the four games of this series, we have seen 48 or more total shots on goal. That high volume should continue tonight and gives us a solid advantage with an OVER wager. In five of the seven meetings between these two teams this season, one of the two teams has scored 5+ goals themselves. We are betting OVER in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164 Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics, 7:30pm ET - Do you find it strange that Caitlyn Clark won’t be in the lineup tonight and yet the OVER was bet up on this game? The line opened 157.5, was bet up as high as 164 and is not fluctuating back and forth between 163-164. The ‘Joe’s’ money pushed this number up and now the ‘Pro’s’ money is coming in on the UNDER. Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a little over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. The Fever play at the fastest pace in the league but that is with Caitlyn Clark pushing the tempo on every possession. Clark is out tonight so we expect the Fever to play at a more deliberate pace and focus on getting Boston as many touches as possible in the paint. Washington plays slower at 96.36 possessions per game (7th) and has problems scoring at 78.4ppg (10th). Indiana has been much better defensively than expected this season with a DNR of 93.2, 3rd best number in the W. Washington ranks 7th in DNR at 98.5. The Mystics have put up 74, 72 and 62 points in their last three games in three straight UNDERS.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164.5 Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7PM ET - Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a touch over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. We don’t see these two offensively challenged teams getting to 160 or more total points. The Sun are second to last in the league in Offensive Net rating at 87.5 with the worst eFG% of 41.4%. The Sun are shooting just .376% overall and .263% from Deep. Dallas isn’t much better. The Wings are 8th in ONR at 98.2 with an eFG% of .442 which ranks 10h worst (out of 13 teams) in the W. Dallas hit’s just .292% of their 3-point attempts and shoots .397% overall. Defensively, both teams are allowing over 83ppg on the season, but both have faced some of the league’s best offenses which has inflated those numbers. We expect a game in the 150’s here. Bet UNDER!

#929/930 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 10:07 PM ET - The Marlins had 14 hits last night but were held to 4 runs.  Miami should be swinging the bats well again tonight and with a little more clutch hitting they will get well past 4 runs.  Angels starter Jose Soriano has made 4 starts at home this season and one was good but he has consistently struggled in each of the other 3 with 13 earned runs allowed in 13 and 2/3 innings over the other 3 starts at home!  Cal Quantrill is also likely to struggle here.  The Marlins starter had a good first road outing this season but has lasted only 17 innings in the 4 road starts since then as he has been pounded to the tune of 18 earned runs in those.  Quantrill has a tough assignment tonight which will make things even more difficult for him in terms of his road struggles.  Quantrill is on his 3rd team in 3 seasons and has an ERA above the 5.00 mark from 2023 through the present.  Now he faces an Angels team that is the top slugging team in the majors the last 15 days as they have slugged 26 homers in their 13 games in the 15-day stretch.  Both the 26 homers and the .502 slugging percentage leading the majors last 15 days!  They are red hot and have won 8 straight games but their bullpen has a 6.57 ERA which is dead last in the majors and the Marlins aren't much better with a 5.09 ERA for their bullpen.  The consistent high-scoring trend in Angels games (8-game winning streak averaging 12 runs a game) likely continues here.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 here that is still a winning ticket for us. We are strong on the Over in this one.  

ASA NHL play OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 - Hurricanes vs. Panthers Saturday, May 24 8pm ET - We like the Hurricanes-Panthers Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET Over 5.5 goals. Florida leads the playoffs with 45 goals (3.75 per game) and 82 high-danger shots. Carolina’s +16 goal differential and 46.6% offensive zone time signal scoring potential. Game 1 hit seven goals, and Andersen’s .877 high-danger save percentage in that game suggests vulnerabilities. In Game 2 the Panthers put up 5 goals on just 21 shots. In the last nine meetings between these two teams, one has managed to score 4+ goals in seven of those contests. If one of these teams gets to 4 this game should go Over easily. With Carolina down 2-0, expect an open, high-scoring game.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201229/201230 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (-110) – AC Milan vs Monza, Saturday at 2:45 ET - As we had mentioned in a recent write-up on AC Milan, they had switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation and we liked what we were seeing from them on the attack. However, this more aggressive attacking can also leave a team vulnerable to counterattacks. That said, it comes as no surprise that AC Milan is allowing 1.5 goals per match this month in Serie A and Coppa Italia action.  The key here for AC Milan is they are wrapping up what has been a disappointing season by their standards and they are at home and they are taking on a club (Monza) that has been one of the worst clubs we've seen at the Serie A level in quite some time!  With that said, you can expect AC Milan to be relentless here with attacking as they look to take out a season-long period of frustration on an out-classed foe.  Monza won't be able to keep up here but should be good for at least a goal or two while AC Milan likely get to at least 3 on their own.  AC Milan is a very large favorite here and they will take advantage of a Monza club that has allowed 2 goals per match on the road this season.  Entering this one Monza has scored 3 goals the last two matches so their goal-scoring confidence is up and they are playing relaxed knowing already they are being relegated.  AC Milan also playing relaxed football now too knowing that they already missed out on a coveted top six spot in Serie A.  The key here is AC Milan at home and pushing the tempo and wanting to finish a dismal season on a high note for their fans.  They will be attacking constantly in this one no matter the score and, given the circumstances, we like the odds on a rather wide-open affair here to lead to at least 4 goals. We are very strong on the over in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a rematch from the season opener in Phoenix which the Mercury won 81-59 as a +5-point underdog. The game stayed well below the O/U of 158 with 140 total points being scored. There is no reason to expect different results in tonight’s game. Seattle was one of the worst shooting teams in the W a year ago and in the first meeting they hit just 33% overall and18% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 for the Storm they faced a Dallas team that isn’t great defensively yet and shot better at 41% but the two teams combined for 150 total points. Phoenix is coming off a higher scoring game against the Sparks who had the 3rd worst Defensive Net Rating a year ago. The Mercury are 12th in FGA’s on the season and play at the 2nd slowest pace in the league. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the W. Seattle was a top 4 defense a year ago and playing with revenge so don’t expect the Mercury to get into the 80’s again here. With a slow tempo, one solid defense and a poor shooting team involved we don’t see this game getting to 160.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 225 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - If the Pacers were a cereal, they would be Lucky Charms! The three last-minute wins they have had in the playoffs are absolutely remarkable with the most recent borderline miraculous. Historically, teams trailing by 9+ points with less than 1-minute to play in a playoff game were 0-1414 going into Wednesday. Indiana is now that 1 team with a ‘W’. We are betting on the value and UNDER in this game after that emotional Game 1. The O/U in G1 was 221.5 so we are getting an extra possession and points with this play today. We expect a regression with both teams shooting as each hit 51% overall, the Pacers made 15/37 3-pointers for 41% and attempted 28 free throws. NY didn’t shoot as well from three at 32% but did attempt 40 FT’s, making 28. This series is about to get very physical and the team that locks down defensively is going to win. NY understands their best option to win is to NOT get into a fast paced – shootout game which Indiana prefers so expect a deliberate pace from the Knicks and a more focused effort on the defensive end of the court.

Italian Serie A Rotation #201209/201210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3 Goals (-106) – Como vs Inter Milan, Monday at 2:45 ET - Great spot for goals.  Inter Milan will give it their all here as they still have a shot at the #1 spot in the league if Napoli falls short versus Cagliari. That said, look for an aggressive attacking approach from Inter Milan in this one but Como will also be doing their best to stifle those slim Inter Milan hopes. Como averaging 1.6 goals per match when at home this season! Inter Milan one of the highest scoring clubs in the league all season and averaging 2 goals per match. Como has scored 1.8 goals last 5 matches. Inter Milan has scored 2.4 goals per match last 5 matches across all competitions. This one sets up well for quite the battle even if Inter Milan also peeking ahead to the match with PSG in Champions League next week! This one has 2-2 written all over it. We are strong on the over in this one. 

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Minnesota Timberwolves at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - In Game 1 we were on the Over along with the Sharps who hammered the opening number from 214 to 219. The game obviously stayed below the number and we expected the Books to open this number closer to the closing line of G1 than the opener. As we are writing this analysis the O/U on this game has started to move up again to 215.5 despite a vast majority of tickets/money on the Under. We agree with the move and feel this line should be 224. Minnesota had a poor shooting night of 35% overall and 29% from Deep in G1 and scored 25 or less points in all 4 quarters. Granted, part of that is due to great defense by the Thunder, but we expect a positive regression to the norm for the Wolves who have an Offensive Net Rating of 112.4 in the playoffs. The Wolves shot 46.7% in the regular season and 37.3% from beyond the arc which was the 4th best percentage in the NBA. OKC is going to put up points as they have done all season and playoffs long. The Thunder are scoring 116.8ppg in the post season despite a lower-than-normal EFG%. OKC had a EFG% of 56% during the regular season which has dipped to 52.4% in the playoffs so it’s likely we see that number moving up as the playoffs progress. In four of the last five meetings these two teams have scored 217 or more total points. After a ‘feeling out’ in Game 1 we expect both offenses to put up 110+ points.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 162.5 LA Sparks at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - Let’s start with an ‘average’ W game a season ago finished with roughly 164 total points per game. This O/U is slightly lower than that, but our model suggests 158.7 total points being scored. It’s very early in the season and both teams have completely different identities from last year, but both have played slow to start the season ranking 11th and 12th in pace of play. They are both near average in Offensive Net Rating, but the defenses have been well above average with the Sparks ranking 4th in DNR, the Mercury are 2nd. Phoenix held Seattle to 33% shooting overall and 18% from beyond the arc in their season opener. The Sparks allowed the Lynx to score 89-points in their last game, but the Lynx are arguably the best team in the W. Los Angeles had just 60 total FGA’s in that game and shot above expectations to get to 75-points. At the end of the day this O/U is set at essentially an ‘average’ WNBA game but that won’t be the case with a slower pace and solid defenses. We like Under!

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars – 8pm ET - Dallas has been a strong UNDER bet with 37 Overs, 52 Under and 8 ties in their last 97 games. Of the 95 games involving the Stars this season, 62 have finished with 6 or less goals. Edmonton has an O/U record of 20-26-1 on the road this season and are 41-50-2 on the season. After a shaky start to the playoffs, Oilers netminder Skinner has been great in his last two starts with 0 goals allowed on 47 total shots against Vegas. The Stars goalie Oettinger has been a brick wall in the playoffs with only 7 goals allowed in his last 4 starts and a .942 Save Percentage. The Oilers have had their struggles on the road with zero power play goals in the postseason. Dallas is averaging 2.92 goals per game in the playoffs but it’s going to be tough to get to 3 goals against this Edmonton defense that is off two straight shutouts.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 10.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 4-3 through 5 innings and then shockingly stayed that way!  We say shockingly because this match-up features the bottom two bullpens in the entire AL based on ERA and also because the Athletics temporary home this season has proven to be hitter-friendly.  It will be another very warm day in Sacramento today and the ball will carry very well here in this one.  Athletics starter Gunnar Hoglund gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and the young right-hander has allowed 16 baserunners in less than 12 innings over his last two starts.  The Angels start veteran Kyle Hendricks here and he was 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA with the Cubs last season.  He went 3-5 with a 7.08 ERA on the road last season.  This season thus far Hendricks is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his five road starts.  The Athletics did not hit well on their recent road trip but now in their 2nd game back home and facing a struggling righty, we look for the A's bats to get going again.  Their slugging percentage this season ranks 8th in the majors and they had scored 5 runs per game in the last dozen home games prior to yesterday's 4-3 loss.  The Angels stayed hot with that win yesterday and they have scored 5.2 runs per game in going a respectable 8-5 last 13 games.  Prior to this series, 7 of the last 9 Athletics home games have totaled double digits and they are a more confident hitting team in this venue.  The Angels are also very confident right now at the plate and we don't see any way these sub-par bullpens do again tonight what they did yesterday.  At the same time, both starters are likely to struggle here for the reasons we noted above.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 13 to 14 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 11 or 12 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#527/528 ASA PLAY ON Over 217.5 Points – Minnesota Timberwolves vs OKC Thunder, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - This total is set too low in our opinion and we’re on the Over. In their 4 meetings this season, OKC and Minnesota averaged just under 226 total points and in 3 of those 4 games the total was set at 227 or higher. Going back further, in their last 10 meetings these 2 have had just one total set lower than 227 points. We expect an up tempo game with the Thunder playing at the 2nd fastest pace thus far in the playoffs after ranking in the top 5 in that metric during the regular season. OKC is averaging 94 shot attempts per game in the playoffs which is #1 while Minnesota is launching 85 shot attempts per game in the post season. The Thunder haven’t shot the ball great in the playoffs (45% overall and 32% from 3) well below their regular season averages, yet they are still are averaging 117 PPG. At home, that number rises to 126 PPG in the playoffs scoring at least 112 in all 6 of their home tilts in the post season. Minnesota has been shooting below their season average FG and 3 point % as well, yet they are still averaging 108 PPG in the playoffs and that includes 2 terrible offensive performances putting up 85 and 88 points vs the Lakers and Warrior respectively. In those 2 losses Minnesota was 10 of 54 (18%) from 3 which was not the norm for a team that hit 38% of their triples (4th in the NBA) on the season. Minus those 2 poor offensive efforts, the TWolves are averaging 114 PPG in the post season. These two teams have combined to play 21 playoff games this season and 13 of those have reached at least 217 total points. Both teams rank in the top 5 in Offensive Rating in the playoffs and NBA Overs are on a 28-13 run going into tonight’s game. This one goes Over the total.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - Last season WNBA games averaged 164 total points per game. Last season these two teams were 6th (Dallas) and 7th (Seattle) in Offensive Net Rating but we expect a regression from both teams offensively early on. The Storm traded away their leading scorer from a season ago Jewell Lloyd and were already a poor shooting team with an EFG% of 47.8% (9th). Dallas made a youth movement and traded away several Vets and landed the #1 pick in the draft Paige Bueckers. Dallas was one of the worst teams in the league a season ago, but new head coach Chris Koclanes has put a major focus on defense. They also landed DiJonai Carrington, a defensive specialist. Seattle was 4th in the league a year ago in Defensive Net Rating at 96.4 and should be close to that level again in 2025. Seattle was the worst 3PT shooting team in the W a year ago at 28.8% and if Game 1 of this season is any indication of how they are going to shoot this season from deep, it’s going to be worse. Seattle went 3 of 17 from beyond the arc in their game against Phoenix and shot just 33% overall. We don’t see this game getting into the 160’s.

English Premier League #200155/200156 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-125) – Arsenal vs Newcastle United, Sunday at 11:30 am et - While Liverpool are already crowned champions for the league for this season, this is a big 2 versus 3 battle at the top of the standings.  Arsenal is seeking revenge as they have lost all 3 meetings with Newcastle United in this campaign.  One was in league action at Newcastle and the other two were in EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) action.  Arsenal also enters this match off a 2-2 draw but a disappointing one as they spotted Liverpool a 2-0 lead at the half.  They caught an earful at halftime about their lack of attack in the first half and they responded in the second half in an eventual 2-2 draw with the league champions.  Look for that momentum to carry right into this match.  Speaking of momentum, however, Newcastle has scored 5 goals in the 3 meetings between these clubs since November.  Also, Newcastle is in strong current form as they have scored 23 goals across their last 9 matches overall!  Arsenal has scored 9 goals in their last 4 Premier League matches. You can see why we like the over plenty in this one.      

ASA WNBA play on OVER 169 Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky, 3 pm ET - Let’s start with our base O/U numbers from last season. WNBA games averaged right around 164 total points per game last season. Indiana was the 3rd highest scoring team in the league at 85ppg and played at the second fastest pace. The Fever were terrible defensively with a DNR of 107.5, 2nd highest number in the league. The Sky weren’t much better defensively with a DNR of 103.5 (8th). Chicago’s offense struggled at times last season, specifically shooting, with an EFG% of 45.7% (11th). The Sky should be better in that department with their off-season additions and with growth in second year players Reese and Cardoso. In the four meetings between these two rivals last season they produced total points of 181, 175, 174 and 141. The Fever are going to be much better offensively this season with their new additions and the Sky will be forced to keep up in this one. We like OVER.

ASA NBA play on OVER 210 Boston Celtics at NY Knicks, Friday 8pm ET - We’ve got mixed feelings on the side in this game and will stay away from that bet, but we do like the Over quite a bit in this Game 6. Let’s start with this, Jayson Tatum is one of the 10 best players in the league. But the Celtics roster is deep and has been crafted with a plethora of great perimeter shooters, tough minded defenders and unselfish players. Boston moved the ball effectively on offense and it didn’t ‘stop’ in one player’s hands very often as it does with Tatum on the floor. What happens when you move the defense with your perimeter passing? You end up shooting 52% overall and 45% from Deep. That’s a recipe for success and if Boston’s coaching staff can pound that home (mainly to Brown who can also be a ball-stopper) the Celtics will put up a big number offensively again in this game. We also expect the Knicks to have a better offensive showing in this game after shooting just 36% overall with Brunson ‘only’ scoring 22-points. In eight of the last nine meetings these two have combined for 208 or more points. We like that trend to carry over tonight. NBA Overs are on a 26-12 run going into Thursday nights game.

ASA NBA play on OVER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets 8:30 pm ET - We narrowly lost with the Over in the previous game of this series with the two teams combining for 217 total points. It looked like a solid winner throughout the game until Denver went ice cold in the 4th quarters and only managed 19-points. The Vegas O/U on the five games of this series have been 229.5, 230, 232, 228 and 221.5 total points. With the over-correction to this current number we will bet Over. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the NBA in 3PT% at 36.7% (OKC) and 37.5% (Nugs). Prior to a very low scoring Game 3, these two teams had combined for more than 220 in 5 of six meetings. These were two of the top 8 fastest paced teams in the league so we should get a high possession game. The Playoff Overs are on a 26-12 run including both potential elimination games last night. Both teams will play desperately here and Denver back on their home court will shoot better than the 41% they hit last game. Lastly, these two teams ranked 3rd and 4th in Offensive Efficiency (and overall PPG) during the regular season at 1.200-points per possession. With everything on the line tonight we expect points from both teams.

Spanish La Liga: #201921/201922 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-130) – Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid, Thursday at 1 ET - Atletico Madrid is on the road and they have won 6 straight meetings at Osasuna and had a clean sheet in 5 of those!  Coming off a big win over Real Sociedad, the visitors have plenty of confidence heading into this match as well.  However, Osasuna has been a strong home club this season and will not be easy to score on here.  Additionally, Atletico Madrid is one of the stingiest defensive clubs in the league with only 27 goals allowed in 35 matches!  We look for tight, low-scoring battle given the above.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one. 

ASA play on OVER 207.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7pm ET - Even without Tatum we expect the Celtics to put up points against this average Knicks defense. In the first two games of this series these two teams shot poorly but the pace of play set up for a higher scoring game. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 180 field goal attempts, in Game 1 that number was 184. The regular season NBA average was 178 FGA’s per game which resulted in 227 total points per game. These two teams ranked 2nd and 5th in Offensive Net rating this season at 117.3 (NY) and 119.5 (Bos). New York scores their points with great shooting at 48.2% overall (5th) and 36.8% (8th) from beyond the arc. Boston scores with volume and 3-pointes ranking 1st is 3PT attempts and makes per game with the 10th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Seven of the last eight meetings have resulted in 208 or more points. We expect a higher scoring game here.

GAME TWO OF DH: #913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles, GAME TWO OF DH, Tuesday at 3:45 PM ET - Simeon Woods Richardson projected to get the start for the Twins here and Baltimore is undecided but their options are not good.  It could be Cade Povich getting the call for the Orioles.  But, if not, it might be Chayce McDermott and the 26-year old has only made one start at the MLB level.  Baltimore is expected to use Dean Kremer in Game One of today's double header and he has a 5.24 ERA on the season so if he gets flipped to Game Two that is fine by us as well.  Make sure you go "action" on the pitchers for this reason.  As for the Twins, Woods Richardson is winless with a 5.30 ERA in his 4 road appearances this season and Povich is winless with a 7.94 ERA in his 4 home starts this season!  Woods Richardson has walked 10 in 14.2 innings over his last 3 road starts and he also struggled against the Orioles last week.  Povich struggled against these Twins in Minnesota last week and also opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him this season!  Last season, his rookie campaign, Povich went 3-9 with a 5.20 ERA!  The Orioles have a pitching concern here no matter which one takes the mound as you can see.  Baltimore has underperformed at the plate but they enter this game off a 7-3 win and having won 2 of the last 3 games.  Also, Baltimore is now back home where they scored 6 runs in their most recent game.  The Twins are hot and have won 8 straight games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this hot streak.  The Twins bullpen has been solid except they have blown 7 of 16 save opportunities.  The Orioles have been solid in save situations but their overall pen has struggled with a 5.05 ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors!  Also, with this being Game 2 of the Double Header, some of the better bullpen arms could get used up in the first game.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 or 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

Spanish La Liga: #201901/201902 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-185) – Real Madrid vs Mallorca, Wednesday at 3:30 ET - Real Madrid is at home and anxious to bounce back off the 4-3 loss to Barcelona this past weekend.  That essentially decided the title for the league this season and that means the hosts will be geared up to quickly respond here on Wednesday as they take advantage of facing a lesser foe.  Of course this is why they are a big favorite here and that is why we are big on the over here rather than the side.  There is juice on this over at 2.5 but with that meaning we only need 3 to cash this ticket we have no hesitation in laying the juice here.  Real Madrid is averaging scoring 2.5 goals at home this season in La Liga but also giving up an average of a goal per game.  Mallorca does average scoring a goal per match but also won't be able to stop an angry Real Madrid side that will be on the attack even if they do have a few players missing here.  This club is deep and loaded with attacking talent. Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 pm ET - The value is obvious after these two teams just combined for only 179 total points in Game 4. The Vegas O/U on the four games of this series have been 229.5, 230, 232 and 228 total points. The over-correction in the number is not warranted, especially considering this game is back on OKC’s floor where they just put up 149 on this Nuggets team. These two teams had horrible shooting nights in the previous game with a combined 21/86 3-pointers or 24%. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the NBA in 3PT% at 36.7% (OKC) and 37.5% (Nugs). Prior to the low scoring Game 3, these two teams had combined for more than 220 in 5 of six meetings. These were two of the top 8 fastest paced teams in the league this season and we doubt the Thunder will want to play slow at home, especially when it favors Jokic in the half court sets for Denver. Bet the number, bet OVER! Going into Monday nights two games the Overs are on a 22-10 run in the Playoffs.

Spanish La Liga: #201897/201898 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (+105) – Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo, Tuesday at 2 ET - Celta Vigo has scored 55 goals in 35 games this season in La Liga and they have hopes of finishing high enough in the standings to qualify for the league stage of the Europa League this coming season.  That being said, they will be pushing hard for the victory here and are likely to employ an aggressive, attacking style even on the road as a result of the situational aspects for this one.  As for Real Sociedad, they have been fading but are still mathematically alive for European Football for next season so they too will be pushing hard for the win here.  With that being said, both clubs are unlikely to want to settle for a draw here and we envision both clubs scoring and an eventual victor in a battle that could even reach 3-2 but should get to at least 2-1.  Real Sociedad has allowed 9 goals in the last 5 games.  Celta Vigo has scored 11 but allowed 9 last 4 games and all 4 of those matches each reached at least the 3 goal mark.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 231.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, 8pm ET - In this series we’ve seen total points scored of 233, 239 and 230 total points. In the first two games the Pacers shot above expectations against a Cavs defense that is one of the best in the league. In Game 3 the Pacers had a ‘normal’ shooting game and managed just 104 points. Cleveland was much better defensively with Mobley and Hunter back in the line up after missing Game 2. Indiana head coach Carlisle will have a better game plan in place to contain Donovan Mitchell who went off for 43-points last game and put the pressure squarely on other role players to pick up the scoring burden. The Pacers don’t have great overall season long defensive numbers on the season but since the All-Star break they rank 8th in Defensive Net Rating and have been much better on that end of the court. The pace of play has not been as fast as you might think and the combined field goal attempts per game is only slightly higher than the leagues average during the regular season. As both teams get to know the others tendencies more we like lower scoring games. This one stays UNDER.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen in the series opener Friday.  That was a 13-9 San Diego win and the Rockies got to the Padres bullpen well in that game.  Yesterday the Rockies never got into the bullpen but it did not matter for over players as the Padres scored 21 runs in a 21-0 shutout victory!  The Rockies should bounce back at that plate today as they have some guys in their lineup that have had success against Pivetta and we expect a game more like what we saw in Denver Friday.  The Padres have been absolutely crushing the ball when facing Colorado this season.  San Diego is now 5-0 against the Rockies this season and they have scored an average of 10 runs in those 5 victories!  Look for that trend to continue today in this hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather expected again today in Denver!  The ball was carrying very well yesterday and more of the same is expected today with ideal weather conditions on a warm afternoon at Coors Field.  The Padres Pivetta has struggled in 2 of his 3 road starts this season and he did go 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road last season.  The Rockies German Marquez has lasted only 19 innings his last 5 starts and he has allowed 30 earned runs in those 19 innings!  Marquez has been getting crushed and now has to face a red hot Padres lineup that feels like it is taking batting practice here at Coors Field.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 12 or 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen yesterday.  It was still a 13-9 San Diego win and that cashed our money line ticket on the Padres yesterday.  Today we are involved again in this series but this time it is on the total.  The Padres will send an inexperienced hurler to the mound making just the 2nd start of his career and his first ever start at Coors Field.  Stephen Kolek did have 42 appearances last season for the Padres but it was all out of the bullpen.  Opponents hit .303 against the right-hander last season and the 28 year-old struggled in the two appearances he made here at Coors Field.  Yes, Kolek enters this outing off a strong start at Pittsburgh.  However, he struggled in the minors this season before being called up and he faced a struggling Pirates lineup in that outing last week.  That's not to say the Rockies have not been struggling also but the Colorado bats are going to carry momentum from last night's rally against the Padres bullpen.  The Rockies will give Kolek problems in his first ever start in a very hitter-friendly park.  Of course that hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather today in Denver, is also going to help lead to plenty of scoring for the Padres.  San Diego has won all 4 games with the Rockies this season and has scored an average of 7 runs in the 4 victories.  Here the Padres will be facing 24-year old right-hander Bradley Blalock.  He has struggled in Colorado since coming over from Milwaukee last season.  Blalock allowed 14 earned runs in 13 innings in 3 late-season appearances to wrap last year and now, in his first two starts this season, he has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings.  It won't get any easier here against a tough Padres lineup coming off a 13-run outburst yesterday.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

Italian Serie A Rotation #201341/201342 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-100) – AC Milan vs Bologna, Friday at 2:45 ET - AC Milan switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation and we like what we are seeing from them on the attack.  However, this can leave a team vulnerable to counterattacks.  That said, with an eye on the Coppa Italia action and Bologna willing to take risks as they are still alive for a top four finish in the Serie A standings at this point, we should see a rather wide-open affair here. Bologna will be willing to attack on the counter-attack and note that the first meeting this season was 2-1 Bologna.  AC Milan has strong current form as they have won 4 of 5 as they continue to thrive in their new formation and they have scored 11 goals in those 4 wins.  AC Milan also enters this game having scored an average of 2 goals per game over their last 10 games in Coppa Italia and Serie A action.  Bologna has scored 23 goals in the last 14 games overall.  Also, Bologna has scored 2 goals in each of the last two meetings while AC Milan has scored a total of 5 goals in the last 3 meetings between these clubs!  Also, because these teams are meeting again next week in a huge Coppa Italia battle, you could see the defensive intensity put on reserve for that meeting rather than this one.  We like the odds on a rather wide-open affair here to lead to at least 3 goals. We are strong on the over in this one.

ASA NHL Under 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights (May 8, 2025) - Last Game (May 6, 2025): Edmonton won 4-2, but Edmonton’s two late third-period goals and an empty-netter inflated the score. Shots were low (Edmonton: 28, Vegas: 17), suggesting limited scoring chances. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams. The Oilers have been a strong road Under team all season long with a 19-26 record, the Knights at home are Under in 24 of 45 at home this season. When Pickard (Oilers) and Hill (Knights) have started in goal this season they are a combined 43-49-1 Under on the season. Both teams ranked top 10 in Shots on Goal allowed this season and will solid goaltending tonight we don’t see these two teams getting to7 or more total goals.

UEFA Europa League: #224409/224410 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-115) in Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao, Thursday at 3 pm ET – The 1st Leg was a 3-0 rout in favor of Manchester United and now they will simply look to defend home pitch with a very strong defensive effort and stifle any hopes that Athletic Bilbao has of a dramatic comeback in this 2nd Leg match-up.  That appears likely as Athletic Bilbao has been struggling for goals of late and Manchester United does not need to score any more goals to advance.  On the contrary, their emphasis will simply be to play a defensive style that does not leave them vulnerable at the back for any attacking from the visitors.   Athletic Bilbao has scored a total of only 7 goals in the last 10 matches!  Also, if you take out the two multi-goal games they had in that run, they scored a total of only 2 goals in the other 8 matches!  All the pressure is on them to make up for the deficit and this club is simply struggling too much to generate goals so it is next to impossible to expect much from them here.  The result could very well be a boring grinder of a game here as the end result.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling only 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one as Manchester United will be taking a defense-first approach at home and Athletic Bilbao's struggles on the attack continue. 

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The winds will be light but are expected to be out of the north and it is a rather cool evening expected at Wrigley Field for this one. Justin Verlander doesn't have great season numbers but he is flying under the radar right now because he has been pitching much better of late. Verlander has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs on just 11 hits in 18 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He has gone a solid 6 innings in all 3 outings.  The Cubs Colin Rea is having a solid season including going 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his 4 starts since moving into the rotation.  Yesterday's game finished 9-2 but we don't expect such success for the Cubs at the plate as Verlander has round into strong form now.  As for the Giants, they have now averaged only 2.3 runs scored in the last 7 road games as their hitting woes continue away from  home.  The Cubs had scored an average of only 3 runs in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday's big day at the plate.  That low-scoring trending at home is likely to resume here per all of the above.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

Italian Serie A Rotation #201289/201290 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-120) – Genoa vs AC Milan, Monday at 2:45 ET - AC Milan switched to a 3-4-3 formation and we like what we are seeing from them on the attack.  However, this can lead a team vulnerable to counterattacks and with an eye on the Coppa Italia action and Genoa able to take risks as they are playing for pride at this point, we should see a rather wide-open affair here. Genoa will be willing to attack on the counter-attack and note that the first meeting  this season was 0-0 but this followed AC Milan scoring in 12 straight meetings and averaging scoring 2 goals per match in those 12 matches! AC Milan also enters this game having scored 2 goals per game over their last 9 games in Coppa Italia and Serie A action. Genoa was shutout in the most recent home game but scored in each of the last 7 at home prior to that and averaged 1.4 goals in those games. With no true pressure on either side, we like a wide-open affair here to lead to at least 3 goals. We will take the over here. 

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Some rain in the Pittsburgh area which is part of the reason we waited on releasing this selection for Saturday but it does look like the heavier showers will be out of the area before game time for this one and we should be good to go with just some light rain expected throughout this one.  This match-up involves two starting pitchers very likely to struggle here.  Randy Vasquez has had issues all season with command and has 19 walks in 27 and 1/3 innings!  Also, he was able to escape some jams and avoid big damage earlier this season but it looks like his luck is running out!  Vasquez has allowed 9 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings over his last 2 starts!  Also, he has allowed 17 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He also has only 7 strikeouts in 21 innings this month!  As for Pirates starter Bailey Falter, he went 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in April.  Falter is supported by a mediocre Pirates bullpen.  The San Diego bullpen has been strong this season but they will be called upon too early in this one as the struggles of Vasquez continue.  The Pirates were shutout once in the last 11 games but have averaged scoring 4 runs in the other 10 games.  The trouble for Pittsburgh is they have allowed 7.7 runs per game in the last 6 games!  San Diego is going to take advantage of facing Falter and a faltering bullpen!  The Padres won yesterday's game 9-4 and now have won 3 straight games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in this 3-game winning streak!  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

English Premier League (EPL) #200073/200074 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-105) – Everton vs Ipswich Town, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Goals likely tough to come by. The last meeting was 2-0 when Ipswich Town hosted Everton earlier this season. Ipswich Town enters this match off B2B losses in which they were shutout each time.  Everton has had 8 straight matches total 2 or less goals! This one takes that low-scoring run to 9 in a row as Everton will merely look to get an early lead and then sit on it. They are the superior club and will frustrate Ipswich Town throughout this match. We expect a well-played affair with a strong emphasis on defensive play from both clubs leading to a rather tight game with few scoring chances. We will take the under in this one. 

UEFA Champions League: #224205/224206 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-185) in Barcelona vs Inter Milan, Wednesday at 3 pm ET – Smaller rated play for us as the price is a bit steep here on the over 2.5 but we are very confident in seeing this match-up reach at least the 3-goal mark.  Barcelona is the highest-scoring team in La Liga as the league leaders have scored 89 goals in their 33 games.  Inter Milan is the highest scoring team in Serie A with 72 goals in 34 games.  What this shows you is the incredible goal-scoring capabilities both of these clubs possess.  With Barcelona known for being particularly aggressive under their manager Hansi Flick, we just can not in any way envision this club sitting back in this one.  At home and known for an aggressive approach under Flick, look for Barcelona to set the tone early in this one in terms of style of play.  That style will be aggressive with plenty of attacking and with both clubs also looking for those ideal opportunities on the counter-attack as well.  Look for both clubs to score in a match that eventually ends up at least 2-1 here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the over in this one. 

ASA NBA play on OVER 210.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, 7:30pm ET The Cavs have put up 121, 121 and 124 points in the three games of this series against the Heat and they’ve done that without Garland for one game and Donovan Mitchell scoring just 13 points. Clearly the Heat just don’t match up with the Cavs and doesn’t have any answers on how to slow them down. Cleveland has an Offensive Rating of 134.1 against Miami and an EFG% of 61.5%, both best of all playoff teams. Those numbers aren’t overly shocking as the Cavs ranked #1 in both of those stat categories during the regular season too. The Heat produced 100 and 112 in the first two games of this series, then hit just 42% from the field in Game 3 and scored just 87-points. It’s unlikely that the Heat score just 23 or less points in four quarters again like they did last time out. In all 6 meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 211 or more points. Bet Over.

Rotation #201241/201242 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals – Verona vs Cagliari, Monday at 2:45 ET -Smaller rated play here (non-top) as there is a price to lay to have the under 2.5 here but it should prove well worth it. We expect both clubs to struggle offensively and would be surprised to see both clubs score. Even if they did it could still very well end up a 1-1 draw here. There is just not enough firepower with each club here and this has been further complicated by some health and suspension issues impacting this match. Cagliari is missing their top scorer due to suspension and it looks like Verona will continue to be without theirs as well. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two has totaled 2 or less goals. 5 straight Verona matches (and 12 of 15) have totaled 2 or less goals. We expect that run reaches 6 straight here! We will take the under here.

#979/980 ASA PLAY ON OVER 8.5 (+100) in San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday @ 4:10 ET - There has not been much scoring in the first two games of this series but the total today is set at 8.5 runs with good reason.  Zach Littell has lost 6 straight starts dating back to last season.  The Rays hurler is 0-5 this season with a 5.28 ERA and he has given up 7 homers in just 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Giving up an average of 1 long ball nearly every 2 innings is certainly not a good sign!  As for the San Diego starter, Randy Vasquez is quite the story early this season in terms of statistical anomaly.  He has a respectable 3.97 ERA in his 5 starts this season but it is a miracle his ERA is that low.  He has 17 walks against only 9 strikeouts in his 22 and 2/3 innings on the season.  Last season opponents hit .304 against him and Vasquez is showing signs now of unraveling this season too as well.  After giving up 7 hits in 5 innings but avoiding major damage 2 starts ago, the last start finally saw Vasquez get hammered.  He allowed 6 earned runs in a start lasting just 2 innings at Detroit.  With 4 straight wins and scoring 19 runs in those games, the Rays' confidence is up.  Even though the Padres have suddenly struggled, they entered this series with a 12-1 record at home on the season and averaged 5 runs per game at home.  San Diego's lineup takes advantage of facing Littell here and gets rolling again early in this one.  Both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here and even though two good bullpens are involved in this one, the Padres bullpen in particular has already seen a lot of work in the first two games of this series and that catches up with them here. Over gets the call in this one!  

ASA NHL play: Over 6 Goals in Dallas  Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche (Game 4, Saturday 9:30pm ET) - Dallas (3.35 GPG, 3rd) and Colorado (3.33 GPG, 6th) are offensive powerhouses, averaging 30.8 and 29.9 shots per game, respectively. Five of their last six meetings this season (including playoffs) have finished with 6 or more goals. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger (2.67 GAA, .904 SV% in series) and Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood (2.34 GAA, .906 SV% in series) face high shot volumes (27-28 per game). Both teams’ potent power plays (Colorado 24.79%, Dallas 22.5% vs. opponent) and Colorado’s home scoring (3.45 GPG) support a high-scoring game. Trends show 5-1 Over in head-to-head matchups and 58% Over in Colorado’s home playoff games since 2022.

Spanish La Liga: #201997/201998 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-120) – Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano, Thursday at 3:30 ET - Atletico Madrid has conceded only 14 goals in their 16 home games in La Liga action this season!   Rayo Vallecano has conceded only 15 goals in 16 road games this season!  Both of those solid defensive statistics rank among the best in the league this season!  We see this one struggling to see much goal-mouth action.  Rayo Vallecano allowed 3 goals in the most recent road game and Atletico Madrid allowed 2 goals in the most recent home game.  The point is that both clubs will likely have defensive intensity dialed up for this one after unusual results in their most recent road / home games, respectively.  Their first meeting this season was a rather drab 1-1 draw and we expect a similar result here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one. 

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON OVER 9.5 (+100) in Athletics vs Rangers, Wednesday @ 10:05 ET - The Athletics temporary home this season in Sacramento continues to play out as a hitters paradise.  Texas won yesterday's game 8-5 and we have seen quite a few high-scoring games here already this season.  Athletics starter JP Sears has already seen how unforgiving this park can be as he struggled in his lone home start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings and the damage could have been even worse.  He will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers here.   The Texas hurler is 0-3 in his 4 MLB road starts and the young hurler has particularly struggled in his first two road starts this season with 9 earned runs allowed in 6 innings of work!  Texas has had one low-scoring game on the road last 6 games but their other 5 recent road games have averaged 11 runs apiece and we expect a similar result here.  Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been great this season either.  Over gets the call here!

ASA NBA play on OVER 220.5 Detroit Pistons at NY Knicks, 7:30 pm ET - The Knicks and Pistons have met four times in the 2024-25 regular season, averaging 230.5 combined points per game. Their most recent clash, Game 1 of their playoff series, ended with a 123-112 Knicks win, totaling 235 points. Even their lowest-scoring matchup this year hit 221 points (115-106), a Pistons win on April 10th. Over their last ten head-to-head games, they’ve gone over 220 points 100% of the time, with one of the two teams scoring 117 or more points in 8 of ten. In Game 1 of this series, the Knicks offense looked like the unit that ranked 5th in Offensive Net Rating this season (117.3), on 53% shooting overall and 38% from Deep. A healthy Jalen Brunson (34 points in Game 1) has a massive impact on the Knicks offense and Karl-Anthony Towns (23 points, 11 rebounds) is also capable of putting up huge numbers. Detroit, meanwhile, has been no slouch offensively, averaging 112 PPG over their last ten games of the regular season. Cade Cunningham (21 points, 12 assists in Game 1) and Tobias Harris (25 points) can keep pace versus a Knicks team that is not as good defensively as past Thibodeau coached teams. The Pistons scored 112 in the opener of this series and that was with a 0-21 drought against the Knicks in the 4th quarter. Both teams should play at a decent pace again (99 possessions each in G1), and with another game at 56.4 EFG% or better we should see a total in the mid-220’s. Our betting model is projecting 224.3 total points.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-145) Prediction In Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in a matchup primed for a low-scoring affair. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been a brick wall at home this season, posting an exceptional 27-3-3 record, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts. His dominance was evident in the regular-season series with the Blues, where the Jets won 3-1, including a 3-1 victory at home on April 7, with Hellebuyck allowing just one goal. St. Louis counters with Jordan Binnington, who has been solid with a 28-22-5 record, 2.69 GAA, and .900 SV% this season. Binnington has shown recent form, allowing three or fewer goals in three of his last five starts and one or fewer in five of his last eight. However, the Blues’ offense may be hampered, as leading scorer Robert Thomas (81 points, 21 goals, 60 assists) is questionable after an injury in the regular-season finale. Without Thomas, St. Louis, already averaging just 2.70 goals per game, could struggle against Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending. Winnipeg’s top-ranked defense (2.39 GAA) and the Blues’ improved penalty kill since the 4-Nations break further support a tight, defensive game. With both teams likely to play cautiously in this playoff opener, expect a goaltending duel that keeps the scoreline low.

German Bundesliga #202593/202594 ASA PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+105) – Heidenheim vs Bayern Munich, Saturday at 9:30 AM ET -Bayern Munich not happy at all about their exit from the Champions League and now their full focus turns to Bundesliga action. That is concerning for a Heidenheim side that won't able to hold off relentless attacking from the visitors here. Bayern Munich, however, has been allowing more goals than usual of late and with Heidenheim also hosting this one they are likely to do some damage on the attack as well. Bayern Munich has allowed 1.8 goals per game in their last five. They also have scored about 3 goals per game in Bundesliga action this season. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled 26 goals with none of the four finishing with less than 5 goals scored. Look for another wide-open high-scoring thriller here in this one as well. We will take the over in this one.

ASA NBA play on OVER 220 Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 pm ET - Dallas is coming off an unexpected great shooting night in Sacramento hitting 49% overall and 50% from Deep, coasting to 120-points and the win. Obviously didn’t see that coming. The 120 they scored could have been much more, but they took their foot off the gas late and we don’t see them having that option here. More to come. Memphis basically fumbled their game away against the Warriors the other night which finished with 237 total points. Memphis shot 49% overall and 46% from beyond the arc against an outstanding Warriors defense. Now they face a Dallas D that was 20th in Defensive Efficiency this season. Memphis’ league-leading pace of 103.1 possessions per game, paired with Dallas’ respectable 99.2 (14th), sets the stage for a fast-paced, high-possession game. Historically, these teams have combined for some higher scoring games with six straight meetings of 223 or more points, including 229 in their April 13 regular season finale when the Over/Under was 228.5—eight points higher than tonight’s game. Memphis’ potent offense (121.6 points per game, 3rd in efficiency) and shaky defense (15th) coupled with Dallas’ scoring (114.4 points) and defensive lapses (115.2 allowed) make for a high scoring game. Dallas owned a 28-14-1 Over record on the road this season and have gone Over in 15 of their last 20 games. Memphis has gone Over in 56.6% of their games this season, including 3 of their last 4.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins – 7pm ET - The Capitals (51-21-9) and Penguins (33-36-12) clash tonight in a high-scoring rivalry. Washington’s elite offense (3.67 GPG, 6th) faces Pittsburgh’s weak defense (3.52 GA/G, 30th). Their February 22, game ended 8-3, clearing 6 goals easily. The Capitals average 3.51 GPG, 2nd most in the NHL; Penguins 2.93 GPG which ranks 20th. Pittsburgh allows 3+ goals in 8 of the last 14 games overall and 4+ goals in six of those games; Washington’s is 9th in GA/GP at 2.77 but will rest some key defensemen heading into the playoffs. The last time these two teams met they produced 11-goals and one of the two teams involved in this series has scored 4 or more goals in 8 straight meetings. Washington’s 26.8% PP (4th) and Pittsburgh’s 25.6% PP (6th) exploit penalties (PIT: 557 PIM, 4th). The Over is 6-3-1in Washington’s last 10 and 8-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 home games. In net for the Penguins tonight will be Tristan Jarry who has a 3.12 GAA and .892 SV%. Jarry has allowed 4+ goals in 4 of his last six starts and his last two outings. Washington counters with goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a 2.72 GAA and .894 SV% on the season. Lindgren has given up 3 or more goals in 3 of his last four starts.