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#306598 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rio Grande Valley -1.5 over UT Arlington, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV is rated 5 spots ahead of UT Arlington per KenPom despite a 3-5 record compared to Arlington’s 6-3 record. That’s because the Vaqueros have played the much tougher schedule with the 25th most difficult slate thus far to 209th or UT Arlington. All of UTRGV’s losses have come on the road and 3 were vs top 50 teams Illinois (9th), Baylor (31st), and Boise State (47th). They gave Illinois a good run losing by 14 as a 33 point dog and did the same @ Baylor losing by 15 as a 25 point dog. They played just their 3rd home game of the season on Sunday and picked up a 13 point win over Austin Peay who has a very similar ranking to UT Arlington. Now they get to play back to back home games after 6 of their first 7 games were on the road. They are 3-0 at home this season. UTA is 2-3 on the road this season (road/neutral) after going just 3-11 in true road games last season. Their 2 wins coming @ Weber State by 1 and @ Evansville by 8, both ranked outside the top 200. The Mavericks are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting only 28% while making only 5 triples per game (both outside the top 340). They’ll be at a huge disadvantage here as UTRGV hits 39% from deep (top 25) while making almost 10 per game. The host should also have a solid advantage in turnover margin as UTA is one of the worst in the country, coughing it up at a 23% rate (357th). Tough to win on the road when you can’t make 3’s and you turn the ball over a lot. We’ll lay this small number with Texas Rio Grande Valley.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska +2.5 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. The Huskers are 9-0 on the season and have already beaten 4 top 100 opponents (Oklahoma, Creighton, New Mexico, and Kansas State). They have some serious momentum heading into this game after crushing a very good Creighton team here on Sunday 71-50. The Huskers have one of the best home court advantages in the Big 10. They are 6-0 at home this year and 34-6 here since the start of the 2023 season. The Badgers are 7-2 with their losses coming vs BYU and TCU, both by double digits. They’ve played 3 neutral site games this season (1-2 record) but this will be their first true road game. Wisconsin relies heavily in the 3 point shot with 33 attempts per game (21st in the country) but they’ve struggled to shoot in their games away from home (all neutral sites) making only 28 of 97 (28.8%) triples. The Huskers have defended very well this season ranking in the top 20 allowing opponents to shoot just 38% overall and 30% from deep (top 90). They play D without fouling with opponents only attempting 13 FT’s per game (8th in the country) and that will be key here as Wisconsin makes 80% of their FT’s. Keep UW off the line and Nebraska wins this game. Extra motivation for Nebraska as they were destroyed in their only meeting last year in Madison but they have topped Wisconsin each of the last 2 games here at home, both as an underdog. We like the Husker to win this one at home.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 840pm ET - This is a value bet as these two teams recently met in New York and the line on that game was Knicks -8.5. That would mean this game should have them as a 1-point favorite or a pick’em. The Raptors have lost 3 straight making them desperate and dangerous while the Knicks have won 3 in a row and may be a little ‘fat’. The Raptors just lost to the Celtics who are playing extremely well right now. In NY’s last 3 wins, two came against Utah and Charlotte and the one quality win was against the Magic who were in a bad scheduling situation and off an emotional win over the Heat. New York has the advantage offensively, the Raptors have it defensively. The Knicks are 3-6 SU on the road this season and 17-19 ATS their last 36 as a road favorite with an average plus/minus of +3.8ppg. The Raptors are 8-5 SU at home this season 18-14-1 ATS their last 33 as a home pooch. Grab the points with Toronto at home.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Providence -16.5 over Brown, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - Rough scheduling spot for Brown as they are playing their 4th game in 8 days. They’ve struggled to say the least with a 5-6 record despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the country this year (339th SOS). Providence will be, by far, the best team they’ve faced and the only team ranked in the top 100 they’ve played this season. The Bears wins have all come vs teams ranked 296th or lower and they’ve already lost to 3 teams ranked outside the top 200 (per KenPom). Providence has 4 losses but they’ve all been to teams ranked 65th or higher and all either road or neutral games. That includes 2 top 25 teams Wisconsin and Florida. At home the Friars are 5-0 winning by an average of +23 PPG. For comparison’s sake, both of these teams have played Rhode Island within the last week with Providence beating the Rams by 21 and Brown losing by 10. The Friars are the much better shooting team (37th eFG% compared to 237th for Brown) and they score an average of 90 PPG (95 PPG at home). Brown averages only 64 PPG in their 5 road games this year and we don’t think they can keep up here. Lay it with Providence.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:40pm ET - With a busy NFL Sunday this write up will be shorter than usual. It looks like the line on this game is suggesting Luka Doncic will be back in the lineup for the Lakers after missing several games. We are fine with that and still feel the value lies with Philly. The Lakers are 16-6 SU on the season but look closer at their 10 most recent games where they are 8-2 SU. Only 1 of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record and that was a 3-point win in Toronto. The two losses in that stretch of games came against the Suns and Celtics who both grade out similarly to the 76ers. Philadelphia is getting healthier with the return of Paul George who scored 20 points last time out against the Bucks. Maxey is quietly one of the best scorers in the NBA and they are getting great play out of Edgecombe. The Lakers have a slight advantage in terms of efficiency differential at +3.2 compared to the 76ers at +0.3, but again the Lakers have faced the much easier schedule. Philly has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. We like them to win this home game outright.

#803 ASA PLAY ON TCU -9.5 over North Texas, Sunday at 5:30 PM ET - TCU should be in a foul mood here after blowing a home game on Friday vs Notre Dame and getting clipped by 2 points in OT. The Horned Frogs have a defensive efficiency rating of 27th nationally but did not play well on that end of the court vs the Irish. After the game head coach Jamie Dixon voiced his frustration, “I’m extremely disappointed in how we guarded.” You can bet they’ll be focused on that end of the court which is bad news for UNT. Prior to losing in OT vs the Irish, the Frogs pulled off back to back upsets beating Florida and Wisconsin on a neutral court. They also took Michigan, who is destroying everyone now, to the wire losing by 4. While TCU has played a number of high level teams, the Mean Green have played one of the lightest schedules in the country (347th SOS). They’ve only played 2 top 200 teams and lost to both. The only top 100 team they played was St Mary’s and they lost that game by 31 points. UNT is stepping into this contest on a 4 game winning streak but all were at home and all vs teams ranked 235th or lower. Their most recent 3 games all went to the wire (at home) vs bad teams. They topped Eastern Washington in OT, beat Prairie View A&M by 3 and Houston Christian by 2. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 5-16 (vs D1 opponents). This is not a great match up for North Texas. First of all, TCU will be extra motivated off a loss. It’s not a true home game for the Frogs but it’s being played at Dickies Arena which is 3 miles from their campus. TCU creates turnovers at a high level (11th nationally) and UNT turns the ball over at a 19% rate (265th). And that’s facing a schedule of teams that isn’t great at creating turnovers. In fact, only 1 opponent ranks in the top 100 in defensive turnover rate, Houston Christian, and the Mean Green turned the ball over at a 27% rate in that game. TCU should have a big edge at the FT line (UNT fouls at a high rate) and after getting outrebounded by Notre Dame, they’ll bring it on the glass as well. We like TCU by double digits in this one.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -8 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - It’s not the best scheduling situation for the Heat who are coming off a game last night while the Kings are rested, but Miami has lost two games in a row which should have them focused here. This bet is just as much a play against the Kings as it is a play on the Heat. Sacramento has not played well this season and are likely on the verge of blowing this roster up and starting over. The Kings have lost 4 straight, 2 of which came against Memphis and Utah, two below average teams. Sacto is the 3rd worst offensive efficiency team in the league and 5th worst defensively. They have an efficiency differential of minus -11.2. The Heat were in Orlando last night and lost a close game to the Magic. They didn’t have Tyler Herro for that game, but he’s expected back here. Miami ranks 13th in oEFF averaging 1.163-points per possession. The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league (3rd) with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.119 points per possession allowed. When playing on the road this season the Kings have a negative point differential of minus -11.6ppg. Miami has an average plus/minus at home of +6.9ppg. Miami is 6-2 ATS when coming off a loss and should get a double digit win here.

#706 ASA PLAY ON UW Milwaukee -4.5 over Robert Morris, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Milwaukee is in must win mode here at home after losing 4 of their last 5 games. Nothing to be ashamed of for the Panthers as they were double digit underdogs in all 4 of those losses, all were on the road, and all were vs top 100 teams (Indiana, Texas Tech, Wichita State, and Akron). You might assume based on those opponents that UWM has played one of the tougher schedules in the country and you’d be correct (32nd strength of schedule). The Panthers are 3-5 on the season and all 3 wins have come at home with all 5 losses coming on the road. Robert Morris could be gassed here after playing @ UWGB on Thursday night and completing a huge come back to win 80-78 on a layup as time expired. Green Bay led that game by 11 points with 2:35 remaining and blew it. Robert Morris is 7-3 on the season but they are just 2-3 in road games and really should probably be 1-4 if it weren’t for their unlikely win @ UWGB 48 hours ago. The Colonials are poor at a few things that make it tough to win on the road. They turn the ball over a lot (292nd in the country), they foul a lot (28% of opponents points come from the FT line – 6th most in the nation), and they don’t get to the FT line themselves (only 12% of their points come from the stripe – 4th least in the country). This is a double revenger for UWM who lost both games last year vs Robert Morris, including a 2 point loss here at home as a 9.5 point favorite. Now we’re getting the Panthers at a much cheaper price, they’ve had a full week off, while Robert Morris played on the road 48 hours ago. Lay it with Milwaukee.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Seton Hall, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We expect a huge effort from KSU off a bad home loss vs Bowling Green on Monday. The Wildcats lost that game 82-66 as a 12 point favorite and while the Falcons are solid (110th per KenPom) it was still a game KSU expected to win. They may have been gassed after back to back losses away from home vs Indiana and Nebraska (both top 50 teams). They shout 39% overall, 26% from 3 and just 55% from the FT line in that loss to BG, all well below their season averages which are 49%, 41%, and 75% respectively. KSU sits with a 5-3 record and they’ve played a very tough slate (68th SOS) including 5 top 100 teams. Seton Hall, on the other hand, has a better record (8-1) but they’ve faced the 351st most difficult schedule and this will be their first true road game. Despite the much tougher schedule, Kansas State has shot the ball much better than Seton Hall this season including ranking 10th nationally from beyond the arc at 41%. That could be bad news for a Pirate D that has allowed opponents to make of their triples (249th). Points from deep could be the difference in this game with KSU scoring 35% of their points from 3 point land (85th in the country) while Seton Hall gets only 25% of their points from 3 (302nd). KSU has won 17 of their last 22 home games while the Pirates were 0-11 in true road games last season. Let’s lay it with Kansas State in a must win home situation.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana State -3 over St Thomas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This is the Tommies 4th trip to the West Coast already this season in a 4 week span. They went to St Mary’s (California) then home, @ Washington State then back home, off to Portland for 3 games in 3 days then home, now off to Montana. Their 3 losses on the season all came on the West Coast. St Thomas is 6-3 on the season but they’ve faced the 266th strength of schedule and 2 of their 3 losses have come vs teams ranked 160th or lower. Montana State is 3-5 on the season but they are much better than their record. There is a reason the team with the much worse record is a full 3+ point favorite in this game. The Bobcats have faced one of the toughest schedules in the country (21st SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently ranked in the top 80 per KenPom and all on the road. For comparison, St Thomas has played only ONE game vs a team ranked in the top 150 and they lost that game by 26 points vs St Mary’s. The Bobcats have played only 2 home games this season and haven’t been at home since November 9th. The Bobcats most recent game on Saturday they faced the best team in the Mountain West, Utah State, on the road and took them to OT before losing by 3. That was an impressive loss, if there is such a thing, vs a Utah State team that is now 7-0 and 5 of their wins came by double digits. Despite their 3-5 record they have exceeded expectations in the market with a 5-1 ATS record. They are a good shooting team that ranks in the top 75 nationally in FG%, 3 point FG%, and scoring putting up 80 PPG. Montana State is in a must win spot here as their next 3 games are on the road. They catch St Thomas in a tough spot and we like the Bobcats to cover at home.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - Louisville is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played the 345th ranked strength of schedule (out of 365) per KenPom. They do have 2 decent wins beating Kentucky at home and Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cards haven’t played a “true” road game this season although they did play Cincy in Cincinnati, just not on their home court. Arkansas is 5-2 on the season with their 2 losses coming @ 8-0 Michigan State by 3 points and vs Duke by 9 points in their most recent game last Thursday. In their game vs Duke the Razorbacks led with 6:00 remaining and trailed by just 6 with under 1:00 remaining in the game. Not a bad loss. Arkansas has now had a full week off and they are at home where they are very tough to beat with an 18-4 record since Rick Pitino took over at the start of last season. They’ve only been a home dog twice in Pitino’s tenure (1-1 ATS) covering vs Bama last year and missing a cover vs last year’s National Champion Florida losing that game by 8. Louisville relies heavily on a few things that don’t match up all that well with Arkansas. They shoot a lot of 3’s, get to the FT line frequently, and create turnovers defensively. The Razorbacks have been solid at defending the arc (allowing 30% shooting), don’t foul very often (only 19% of opponent’s points come from the charity stripe), and don’t turn the ball over (13th nationally offensive turnover percentage). If this one is close late let’s keep in mind that Arkansas shoots 80% as a team from the FT line. We’ll take the points as we give Arky a great shot at pulling this “upset”.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7pm ET - We successfully backed the Spurs on Tuesday night but will fade them here. San Antonio played a 4-game road trip from Nov 23 - 30th, then were home last night against Memphis, and now travels to Orlando. The Magic have been at home and are coming off a win over the Bulls on Monday night 125-120. Orlando has won 6 straight home games with some impressive victories over the Knicks, Clippers and Warriors. Orlando is 8-3 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.5ppg. The Spurs are a respectable 5-4 SU on the road this season but again this schedule is going to have a negative impact on this team that is lacking depth at the moment with several starters out with injuries. The Spurs are 8-10 ATS their last 18 when playing without rest with an average loss margin of minus -5.2ppg. The Magic have won 4 straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. Lay it with Orlando.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame +1.5 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Mizzou steps into this game with a perfect 8-0 record but they have played nobody. Their strength of schedule ranks 364th per KenPom (out of 365 teams) and they’ve played only 1 road game vs Howard (ranked 311th). That game was way back on November 3rd and since that they have played 7 straight home games. Their best win was over Minnesota who is currently 4-4 and ranked as the 17th best team in the Big 10. Subtract that game and the Tigers haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 230 and they’ve faced 4 teams ranked outside the top 300. They travel tonight to take on a solid Notre Dame team that has played a much tougher schedule already facing 3 top 100 teams. The Irish have 3 losses coming @ Ohio State by 1 point, vs Houston on a neutral court by 10 points and vs Kansas on a neutral court by 10 points. Those 3 teams have a combined 19-4 record and all sit in the top 35 per KenPom with Houston and Kansas residing in the top 20. ND has played 4 home games this year and they are 4-0 in those contests and they have won 19 of their last 24 home tilts. They’ve had a week off since losing to Houston in Las Vegas last Wednesday. The Tigers have ridiculous shooting numbers to date hitting 55% of their shots on the season but they defenses they’ve faced have been a joke. The average defensive efficiency rating of the 8 teams they’ve faced is 278th and half the teams they’ve played (4) have a defensive efficiency rating of 330th or lower. Similar situation to last season when Mizzou started the season 13-3 but their 3 losses were their only neutral/road games they had played to that point. They finished last season with a 4-10 SU record in road/neutral games. Let’s take Notre Dame on Tuesday night.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 pm ET - We like the Spurs by double-digits in this one. Memphis is not in the best of schedule situation here playing their 4 straight road game and 5th of six away from home. In comparison they were just +6.5 at the Clippers who are not playing well and lost that game by 5-points. The Spurs will be happy to be home after a 4-game road trip with the most recent game being a loss in Minnesota. Prior to that game the Spurs had two solid road wins in Portland and in Denver. San Antonio does not have Wemby back yet, but did get Kornet and Harper back recently which strengthens their rotation. Memphis will have a tough time scoring here with the 28th ranked FG% at 44.3% going up against a Spurs D that allows the 9th lowest FG% against at 45.9%. San Antonio meanwhile is the 4th best shooting team at 49% versus a Grizz D that allows 47.6% (22nd). These two teams met on Nov 18th with the Spurs winning by 10-points as a 6-point chalk. We expect a similar result Tuesday night.

#878 ASA PLAY ON Middle Tennessee State +2.5 over UAB, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We have MTSU as a slight home favorite and we’ll grab the value. MTSU has been through the gauntlet already this season playing the 19th most difficult schedule in the country yet they still have a record above 500 (4-3). Their losses have all come vs top 80 teams (Michigan, McNeese St, and George Washington) and they were all away from home (road and neutral). The Blue Raiders actually haven’t played at home since November 8th! They are in must win mode coming off 2 losses in a row and have a chance to make some hay with 4 straight home games. They’ve been off since last Tuesday so they will be rested and ready. This team was 22-12 a year ago and they bring back 4 of their top 8 players and a few key transfers. UAB, on the other hand, has NOBODY back from last year. Their starters and rotation players are all transfers and freshmen. The Blazers beat MTSU at home by 7 last year and they don’t have a single player on this year’s team that played in that game. UAB has played the much easier schedule (243rd SOS) and they’ve played only 1 true road game vs NC State and lost by 24. The Blazers can’t shoot from deep, ranking 335th (making only 26%) which is why only 20% of their points come from beyond the arc (354th nationally). They are facing an MTSU defense that allows just 27% shooting from beyond the arc so we expect the Blue Raiders, who shoot 35% from 3, to have a decided advantage in that key stat. The Raiders have won 19 of their last 23 home games and we’ll call for them to win this game as a dog.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET - The 76ers are beat up right now and aren’t a deep team to begin with. Atlanta is quietly 12-8 on the season with an 8-4 SU road record. The Hawks are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 48.9% with the 7th best 3PT%. The Sixers are 18th in team FG% at 46.4% and 11th in 3PT%. Defensively the Hawks are 13th in efficiency ratings, the 76ers are 19th. Embiid is out today for Philadelphia along with his backup Drummond. Edgecombe is doubtful, Oubre Jr out and Paul George is still not 100%. Atlanta has been playing without Trae Young for most of the season but Jalen Johnson is playing lights out in his absence. Porzigis missed the Hawks last game but could be back here. Atlanta has won 5 straight in this series and should be the favorite in this game.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 8:10pm ET - We absolutely love the Heat in this situation with a massive scheduling advantage over the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a huge game last night against Orlando and now travel to Miami for their 3rd game in four days. The Pistons played 4 straight road games, then went home for Orlando and are now back on the road to face the Heat who have been off for 2 days. Detroit had ripped off 13 straight wins but have now lost 2 straight. Detroit has the 7th best efficiency differential on the season in the NBA at 6.4. In the Pistons last 5 games their eDIFF has improved to +7.6. The Heat are quietly flying under the radar right now and are a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 5 straight games by an average +13.4ppg. In that 5-game stretch the Heat have an eDIFF of +12.6 and are +5.4 on the season. Detroit has some good road numbers but the Heat at home are 9-1 SU with an average /- of plus +6.9ppg. Miami will force tempo here and play fast and the weary Pistons will have a tough time keeping up. Lay it with Miami.

#716 ASA PLAY ON Southern Illinois -13.5 over Little Rock, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for SIU. The Salukis are a very good team, but their record doesn’t show that. They are 3-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home vs top 160 teams. They’ve been on the road since November 7th and played only 2 home games this season and came away with 2 easy wins. Their most recent 2 losses came away from home vs top 100 teams UAB (lost by 8) and Memphis (lost by 16). We were on Memphis in that game as it set up perfectly to take the Tigers. Today we like SIU back at home in a must win game. They’re facing Little Rock who will be playing their 6th consecutive road game. The Trojans are 1-4 in those 5 road games leading up to this one with their only win coming @ Ball State (ranked 298th) who is 1-4 vs D1 teams. 3 of their 4 losses during this stretch have come by at least 20 points. They turn the ball over at a ridiculous 26% rate (worst in CBB) and they aren’t a good rebounding team (outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive boards). SIU is top 70 in the nation in both offensive and defensive FG%. Little Rock is 175th in offensive FG% but their defense has been a sieve ranking 343rd in defensive FG% and 360th in 3 point FG% allowed. They’ve also allowed 89 points or more in 3 of their 5 games vs D1 opponents. The one thing the Trojans have done well is shoot the 3. They have hit 43% of their triples, which isn’t sustainable, and despite that they are 1-4 on the season (vs D1 opponents) and they’ve been blown out 3 times. If they don’t hit a high number of triples today this one could get ugly. We’ll lay it.

ASAwins NBA play on NY Knicks -8 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks have lost 6-straight games and it’s not going to matter if Giannis is back or not for this one. Giannis is questionable tonight against the Knicks and I’m guessing he returns but it won’t be enough to cover against this Knicks team. These two teams met earlier this season in Milwaukee with the Bucks being a +2-point home dog. Milwaukee won that game by 10-points and this time around it will be the home team Knicks by double-digits. The Bucks lost most recently to the Heat by 3-points but prior to that their 5 losses were all by 10+ points. The Knicks are coming off a successful 3-2 road trip and have won 7 of their last ten overall. New York is 8-1 SU at home this season with the 3rd best average point differential of +12.3ppg. On that note, the Bucks are 3-5 SU away with an average differential of minus -6.2ppg. This is a massive game for the Cup standings as the winner has a chance to move on. These teams aren’t as close as this number indicates as the Knicks have the 5th best efficiency differential in the NBA at +6.6 compared to the Bucks at -2.8. Revenge, health, venue, Cup…it all adds up to a big home win for New York.

#609 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -2 over Marquette, Friday at 2 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Chicago. Marquette is a young team with 4 underclassmen in their top 7 and still trying to figure things out. They are 4-3 on the year despite playing all home games and 1 neutral site game. While other teams are grabbing experienced players in the portal to fill spots, Marquette coach Shaka Smart doesn’t really use the portal. He builds with his young players which is fine, but when they lose their 3 leading scorers from last season (combined to average almost 45 PPG) and replace them with inexperienced players, it can be tough sledding early in the season. Oklahoma has a number of transfers but they are all experienced players who play big roles on their previous teams. The start 4 upperclassmen and their rotation is mainly seniors and juniors. They have 2 losses this season @ Gonzaga, which was to be expected, and vs Nebraska on a neutral court here in Chicago. The Huskers have proven to be very solid early in the season (7-0 record) and Oklahoma blew a 16 point lead in that game. The Golden Eagles thrive on creating turnovers for extra possessions (41st defensive turnover rate) and getting to the FT line (top 100 in percentage of points from the FT line). That doesn’t match well vs this Sooner team who has a very experienced backcourt and doesn’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate). They also don’t foul with opponents scoring only 14% of their points from the charity stripe (11th best in the country). Oklahoma is the better shooting team across the board overall FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%. We’ll lay the small number here as we expect the Sooners to win this one by a solid margin.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA with an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of minus -12.9 on the season. Memphis has an eDIFF of 4.3 on the year. A closer look at each team's last five games and we see the Pels aren’t getting any better with an eDIFF of -12.5 compared to the Grizz in their last 5 games at -1.7. Memphis has won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss coming to the Nuggets. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Bulls, their first win in 10 games. These teams are similar offensively but the Grizzlies hold a decisive advantage on the defensive end of the court with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.150-points per possession allowed versus the Pels who are 29th in the league at 1.226PPP. Memphis has won 5 straight in the series dating back to the start of last season and we like them to extend the streak here.

#744 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -2.5 over Indiana State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Weird spot here as these 2 non-conference foes just faced off a week ago @ Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 60-51 as 3.5 point favorites. Just based on that line 1 week ago, La Tech should be favored by at least 3.5 here. In that loss, LT shot 29% from the field, 12% from beyond the arc (2 of 16) and only made 11 of their 20 FT attempts. Even with that horrible shooting effort, it was a 5-point game with under 1:00 minute left. That’s because LT dominated the boards pulling down nearly 30% of their misses which led to 6 more shot attempts and 10 more FT attempts in that loss. If the Bulldogs do anything but shoot terrible in that game they could have picked up a big road win. Indiana State didn’t light the world on fire either (33%) but they made 9 more triples (+27 points from 3) and the game still was fairly tight. We expect ISU to have problems again offensively here vs a La Tech defense that ranks 2nd in the nation allowing opponents to shoot just 32% from the field while allowing only 55 PPG. The Sycamores are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming @ SIU Edwardsville. They have shot under 40% this year on the road and jot only 26% from deep. La Tech is coming off back to back 20 win seasons and they’ve been tough at home going 27-6 SU since the start of the 2023 season. Meanwhile, ISU is off a 14-18 year and their head coach, Matthew Graves, has never had a winning season in his 6 years as a head coach (South Alabama and ISU). LT has had a full week to stew over last Wednesday’s loss @ ISU and we like them to win this game at home and cover this short number.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -5.5 vs. LA Clippers, 11 pm ET - We are going to fade the Clippers here after a grueling 6-game road trip that started in Dallas on Nov 14th and ended in Cleveland on the 23rd. The Lakers also have LeBron back in the lineup after missing the first few weeks of the season. The Lakers are the better team right now with an efficiency differential of +2.6 compared to the Clippers at -5.5. The Lakers are 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.172-points per possession, the Clippers rank 21st at 1.144PPP. The gap defensively is even greater with the Lakers 15th in dEFF versus the Clippers who rank 24th. The Lakers have shot the ball extremely well this season at 50.6% (2nd) while the Clippers are average at 47%. The Clippers are 2-7 SU on the road this season, the Lakers 4-2 SU at home. The Lakers won 3 of four last season against this Clippers team and this year’s version of the Lakers is better and the Clippers are worse.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame -6.5 over Rutgers, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Both teams lost on Monday here with Notre Dame getting knocked off by Kansas (lost by 10) and Rutgers losing to Tennessee by 35 points. The Irish, a top 100 three point shooting team, hit only 16% vs Kansas (11th nationally defending the arc) which was the difference in that game. ND is hitting 36% of their triples this season and now facing a Rutgers defense that ranks 300th defending the arc. We expect the Irish to shoot much better on Tuesday. Rutgers is rated as the worst team in the Big 10 per KenPom and by a fairly wide margin. They rank 131st nationally and the next worst team in the conference is 104th (Minnesota). The Scarlet Knights have faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (351st SOS) and yet they still have 2 losses including a home setback at the hands of Central Connecticut. All of their wins have come vs teams ranked 285th or lower and many of those wins were much tighter than anticipated. That’s why Rutgers is just 1-5 ATS this season. They were creamed on the boards yesterday vs Tennessee (-15 rebounds) and we expect Notre Dame to control the glass here. The Irish are inside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while Rutgers is outside the top 100 in both. These 2 met here in Vegas last season and Rutgers escaped with a 1 point OT win. The Knights had 2 top 5 NBA 1st round draft picks on that team (Harper & Bailey) and the only 2 players back for Rutgers that played in that game combined for 0 points in 15 minutes of play. Notre Dame, on the other hand, return 3 starters from that game and 4 of their top 6 in minutes played. We like the Irish to get their payback and cover this game in Vegas.

#306526 ASA PLAY ON McNeese State -1 over Murray State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. Both of these teams played yesterday as well with McNeese topping a very good George Washington team (62nd in KenPom ratings) by 6 points while Murray State lost by 3 vs Middle Tennessee State (142nd per KenPom). The Racers are still adjusting to a new head coach and they don’t have a single key player back from last season. All 5 starters and their top reserves are either transfers or freshmen. They are 4-2 on the season but all 4 wins have come vs teams ranked 230 or lower per KenPom. Murray State’s strength of schedule to date is 304th. In their loss vs Middle Tennessee State last night actually made 10 more FT’s and 1 more 3 pointer so they were +13 points from FT and 3 yet still lost the game. McNeese, on the other hand, has already faced a top 70 strength of schedule and they sit with a 4-1 record. Their lone loss was @ Santa Clara who is 6-0 on the season. McNeese was 27-6 last season and upset Clemson in the NCAA tourney before losing by 12 to Purdue. They return 4 of their top 7 players so much more continuity for this team early in the season. They do have a new head coach Bill Armstrong who took over for Will Wade (went to NC State) but Armstrong has coached under Wade (at LSU) so the system is similar. Despite playing the tougher schedule, the Cowboys have the better stats across the board ranking 4th nationally in shooting percentage (Murray State ranks 63rd) and 22nd in defensive FG% allowed (Murray ranks 211th). McNeese also shoots 80% from the FT line and they are 3rd nationally in defensive turnover rate (27%). We’ll lay this small number with McNeese State.

#685 ASA PLAY ON Utah State -7.5 over Davidson, Sunday at 9 PM ET - Utah State is currently rated as the best team in the Mountain West and 39th in the country per KenPom. That’s nearly 30 spots higher than last year’s team that went 26-8 and made the NCAA tourney. The Aggies have a number of key players back from that team including 4 of their top 6 players. They are 5-0 on the season with all double digit wins with the exception of their 3 point win over a very good VCU team. How good was that win? The only other loss VCU has this season was @ NC State (ranked 19th per KenPom) by just 6 points in a game where the Wolfpack made 15 more FT’s. Davidson is also 5-0 but they have yet to face a top 100 team. They are coming off a win here in Charleston on Friday over Boston College. BC shot only 14% from 3 in that game, made only 57% of their FT’s and turned the ball over on 24% of their possessions. The Wildcats lost most the key players off their 2024 roster returning only 1 starter (4 new starters are all transfers) and a few lightly used reserves. They are due for big time regression from 3 point land both offensively and defensively. They currently have made 42% of their 3’s (14th in the country) on the season while limiting opponents to 23% (7th) from beyond the arc. The Cats are facing a USU offense here that ranks 13th in FG% and is averaging 88 PPG. The Aggies should control the boards vs Davidson, who is a poor rebounding team and USU creates turnovers at almost a 22% rate. Not great for a Davidson offense that ranks 248th in offensive turnover percentage. We like USU by double digits.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -9.5 at Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - I hate to be a ‘square’ today but even they win at times so give us a ticket on the Lakers -9.5 at Utah. We are betting a premium price here but the rest trends outweigh the number. The Lakers fall into a 61-24 ATS trend as they have been off since November 18th against this same Jazz team. The Lakers won the most recent meeting by 14-points and have won 5 of the last six against the Jazz. We know L.A. should get plenty of good looks in this game and will knock down shots with their #1 rated team FG% at 51.1%. The reason we know this is because the Jazz are 26th in FG% defense allowing 48.9%. Utah will have a tough time scoring with an offense that ranks 21st in oEFF scoring 1.149-points per possession, going up against a Lakers D that is 9th in dEFF. The Lakers should also have an easier time covering double-digits against a Jazz team that has allowed 140 or more points in 3 straight and 132 or more in four in a row. With 3+ days rest we like the Lakers big in this one.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night.

#306580 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -4.5 over Western Carolina, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Lipscomb is 1-4 on the season and all of their losses have come on the road. They’ve played a tough schedule (65th strength of schedule) but after a few rough games to start the season they’ve been competitive the last 3 with 1 win and 2 close losses on the road (both covers). This is a solid program with 3 straight 20 win seasons including 25-10 a year ago. They’ve been fantastic at home with a 41-6 record over their last 47 here at Allen Arena. Western Carolina has won 3 straight (all at home) but they have been at home for 2 weeks and this will be their first road game since early November. They are 0-2 on the road this season and have lost 15 of their last 16 road games dating back to the start of last season. This program, unlike Lipscomb, hasn’t been overly successful with just one 20 win season since 2015 and they were 8-22 last year. If we look at straight stats neither team has been good this year. Lipscomb does have a few advantages, however besides being at home. They are the much better FT shooting team (87% to 69%) and they’ve been decent at creating turnovers at an 18% rate facing Western Carolina who turns it over at a 21% rate (307th). We’ll take the better program in basically a must win game at home.

ASAwins play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET - I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch - not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Oakland -1.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge disparity in strength of schedule in this game. Oakland has played the #1 rated SOS this year having already faced 4 top 80 teams, including 3 top 15 teams (Houston, Purdue, and Michigan) all on the road. The 4 D1 teams they’ve played this season have a 19-1 combined record. They took UCF to the wire on the road on Monday before losing by 4 points. They gave Purdue all they could handle in West Lafayette before losing by 10. Oakland’s offense has actually been quite good despite facing 4 high level defensive teams. They’ve scored at least 77 points in every game but one and that was vs Houston who is the #1 defensive team in the country (efficiency). They’ve shot it well from 3 (35.2%) and they turn the ball over only 15% of the time (85th). They also make nearly 80% of their FT’s which could be key in a tight game. While the Grizzlies have been on the road a lot, they haven’t played since Monday and their trip to EMU is only an hour bus ride. EMU’s strength of schedule sits outside the top 300. All of their wins (2) have come vs teams that rank 300 or lower and they actually lost at home vs IU Indy who ranks 330th. Their 1 games vs a team with a pulse, they lost by double digits vs Pitt. Despite facing one of the easiest schedules on the country, the Eagles have been a poor shooting team ranking 289th in eFG% and making only 30% of their triples. That’s despite half of their opponents ranking outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Oakland doesn’t have great defensive numbers which is to be expected going up against the teams they’ve faced. They’re much better than their record and better than their overall stats might indicate. This is also a revenger for Oakland after losing by 4 a year ago vs EMU. The Griz shot only 17% from 3 in that game (3 of 18) which was the difference. We like Oakland to get this win and cover.

#744 ASA PLAY ON USC -18.5 over Troy, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Horrible spot here for Troy. They are playing their 4th game in 8 days, all on the west coast. They played Friday @ Loyola Marymount (lost by 11), Sunday @ CSUN (lost by 9), Tuesday @ San Diego State (won by 1 in double OT) and now Thursday @ USC. Not only is that a brutal stretch, their most recent game @ San Diego State Tuesday was a double OT game. Troy doesn’t use their bench often (363rd in bench minutes) so their starters have to be physically and mentally cashed and looking forward to getting home after leaving last Thursday. USC has been off since Friday and they’ve played all home games to date winning by 31, 30, and 20 points. They are in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve been great on the offensive glass pulling down over 40% of their misses (22nd nationally) and they should cream Troy in that regard as they have tired legs and are ranked 312th in defensive rebounding. Troy relies heavily on the 3 point shot which could be tough with tired legs and facing a tough USC D that limits their opponents to 25% from deep thus far this season. USC is a fast paced team, averaging 98 PPG, that could run this Troy team into the ground. Let’s lay it.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Grizz battled the Spurs late into the game on Tuesday night before falling by double-digits. Scheduling also favors Memphis here with the Kings coming off a game last night in Oklahoma City. Sacto is 4-14 ATS their last 18 when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Kings are 1-7 SU on the road this season with a negative average point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Don’t be fooled by the Grizzlies 3-5 SU home record as the losses have come to: OKC, Houston, Detroit, Lakers and Heat who have a combined 58-16 SU record. The home team won all three meetings a year ago and we expect that trend to continue here. Lay it!

ASAwins NBA play on: Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40pm ET - The Warriors are in a tough scheduling situation here which is why this line is as high as it is in Miami’s favor. Golden State played last night with the “big 3” (Green, Butler, Curry) all logging 31+ minutes. This is the Warriors 6th game in nine days, 3rd in four days and the second of a B2B so don’t be surprised if several players are rested tonight. Golden State has an overall average point differential of minus -5.8ppg on the season with a below average offensive efficiency rating (23rd) and slightly better than average dEFF (11th). Miami has been a big surprise this season and have played at the fastest pace in the league. They are 6-1 SU at home with a +6.8ppg average +/-. The Heat are about league average in both oEFF and dEFF but simply out score opponents with volume. Miami is the 8th best shooting team at 48.8%, 4th in 3PT% at 38.5%. They should get plenty of open looks against a fatigued Warriors team that ranks 20th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. Miami has the 3rd best FG% and 3PT% defense in the NBA which will limit Golden State on the offensive end. Don’t be intimidated by the spread on this game which looks unusually high, but they made it this for a reason. Bet Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Injuries to both teams will dominate the headlines but the Spurs are the deeper team and can overcome the absence of Wembanyama. Memphis will be without Ja Morant so expect rookie Cedric Coward to fill his minutes. San Antonio is 6-2 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5ppg. The Spurs are coming off a 13-point home win over the Kings with De’Aaron Fox pouring in 28-points with 11 assists. Memphis is off to a 4-10 SU start which includes a 1-5 SU road record. They are losing on the road by an average of -13.3ppg. The Grizz are in a dilemma right now and have to be considering blowing up this roster and starting over. They are bad on both ends of the court with 29th FG% overall, 27th in 3PT% and rank 27th in offensive efficiency. It’s not much better on the defensive side with the 18th ranked DEFF, 24th FG% D and 19th 3PT% defense. Memphis gives up the 27th most 2nd chance points in the NBA and the Spurs scored the 4th most. San Antonio is 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.186PPP and rank 7th in FG% (49.7%) and 17th in 3PT%. The Spurs have the better overall roster and it will show tonight against a Memphis team that has lost 4 straight on the road.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Yale -8.5 over Rhode Island, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Yale is off a 22-8 season and NCAA tourney appearance last year losing by 9 vs Texas A&M in round 1. They return 4 of their top 6 players from that team and rank 73rd nationally per KenPom which is nearly 100 spots higher than the next best team in the Ivy League (Cornell). They are taking on a Rhode Island team that lost everyone off last year’s team. Literally everyone. Their top 8 players are all transfers. The Rams are 3-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (358th out of 365 teams). Their 3 wins are vs teams all ranked outside the top 300 and those teams currently have a combined record of 0-10 vs D1 opponents. The one team they’ve faced ranked inside the top 200, Tulsa, rolled the Rams by 17 points on a neutral court. This will be their first true road game of the season. Yale has played the tougher schedule (3-0 record) having not faced a team ranked lower than 240. They are the better team and they have a little extra motivation here. That’s because they lost @ URI last year by 6 points. The Bulldogs made only 22% of their triples in that tight loss which was WAY below their season average of 39% which ranked them 4th in the country. Yale also made 7 fewer FT’s and still nearly won on the road. We expect them to shoot much better at home in this one. Yale ranks 22nd nationally in FG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and they make over 82% of their FT’s so far this season. We like the home team to win by double digits here.

#813 SIU Edwardsville +25.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - SIUE is the highest rated team Wisconsin has faced this season currently sitting at #180 per KenPom yet the spread is similar to the Badgers games vs NIU (304th) and Ball State (263rd). Another comparison is Wisconsin’s first opponent, Campbell, sits about 10 spots below SIUE in the KenPom rankings and the spread for that game was +21. Value is on the Cougars here who are 2-0 SU this season as an underdog including beating Drake on the road over the weekend. The Cougs made the NCAA tourney last year with a 22-12 record and they return 5 of their top 8 players from a season ago. Their only chance to keep this game close is to play with a slow tempo (297th in adjusted tempo) and shorten this game. They have a very good defense ranking 82nd in defensive efficiency, 20th in FG% allowed and 58th in 3 point FG% allowed. They have held all 3 of their D1 opponents to 64 points or less (Drake, Indiana State, and UTSA). The Cougars also have the size up front to compete with the Badgers with 2 starters at 6’9 and 7’1 and a few bench players with size as well. We don’t expect Wisconsin to shoot 50% here which is their average on the season. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked 336th, 276th, and 194th in efficiency. The Badgers have a HUGE revenge game on deck later this week vs BYU who knocked them out of the NCAA tourney last year winning by 2 points. They’ll be fine with getting out of here with any type of win and moving onto that game. We’ll take the points.

ASAwins NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs. L.A. Clippers, 7pm ET - This is a very favorable scheduling spot for the Sixers who have had 2 days of rest and now face a Clippers team playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. The Clippers lost a hard-fought game in Boston yesterday 118-121 and are now just 2-8 SU in their last ten games with 5 of those L’s coming by more than 6-points. We love the fact that Philly is rested, but also coming off a loss in their most recent game in Detroit 105-114. The 76ers continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as witnessed by their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in six home games this season, the two losses are respectable coming against Detroit and Boston and 3 of the four wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. The Clippers are 1-4 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -10ppg. In each team's last ten games the Clippers have a negative net rating of -7.4, the Sixers have a positive net rating of +2.9 which is a great indicator of where these teams currently stand. This game have blowout written all over it.

ASAwins NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavs continue to struggle at 3-10 SU on the season with 3 straight losses on their home court. Portland got off to a hot start to the season but have since cooled to 6-6 SU on the year. A great recent barometer of this line is the Blazers were just favored at New Orleans by -8 points just a few games ago and now laying a significantly lower number on this game. Dallas was home dogs to the Clippers by 3 and the Suns by 2 which tells us this line is about right. The Mavs' struggles start with an offense that ranks last in the league in Offensive Efficiency, scoring just 1.045-points per possession. They don’t shoot it well with an eFG% of 50.6% (27th) and make just 10.2 3-pointers per game (30th). The other big factor in this game is turnovers. Dallas averages 17.1 TO’s per game - 3rd most. Portland turns teams over 17.5 times per game - 3rd most. The Blazers are also top half of the league in OeFF at 1.172PPP while making 13.9 3-pointers per game (11th most). We will lay the short number with the road chalk here.

#705 ASA PLAY ON Houston -6.5 over Auburn, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Both teams are 3-0 having faced weak competition but Auburn is in full start from scratch mode. They lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and only return 1 key member off that team. Houston, on the other hand, played for the National Championship last year, lost by 2 points vs Florida, and they bring back 3 upperclassmen starters from that team. The Cougars have started right where they left off defensively ranking #1 in defensive efficiency last year and so far this season. They’ve held their 3 opponents to 57, 48, and 45 points. Their most recent win was over Oakland, a top 200 team and the Grizzlies veteran head coach Greg Kampe raved about this Houston defense after the game. His Oakland team scored 78 and 77 points their first 2 games vs Purdue (top 5 team) and Michigan (top 15 team) but were only able to score 45 vs Houston. This Auburn team, with a sophomore and 2 freshmen in the starting lineup, will have trouble with Houston’s physical nature on defense. The Cougs have better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball and they have the experience factor as well. On top of that, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Kelvin Sampson facing an Auburn team with Bruce Pearl’s son Steven now running the show in his first year as a head coach. While this game is in Alabama, it’s not at Auburn’s home court (game in Birmingham). We’ll lay it with Houston.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska Omaha -9 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Omaha is in an early must win type spot here at home as they’ve started the season 0-3. All 3 of those games have been away from home and they had tight losses vs Murray State and Abilene Christian, both solid teams, and a blowout loss @ Colorado State (top 65 team) in their most recent game. Now they’ve had a full week off and finally get to play a home game. This UNO team is rated as one of the top 4 teams in the Summit League. They won the conference tourney last year and made it to the Big Dance. They finished with a 22-13 record and they have 4 of their top 7 players back from that team. The Mavericks were 11-2 at home last season and 22-5 the last 2 years. Southern Utah lost pretty much everyone from last year’s team including their 5 starters. They have only 2 players back who played minimal roles a season ago. The are rated outside the top 300 and currently sit as the lowest rated team in the WAC. The Thunderbirds rank outside the top 300 in both eFG% offense and defense. Their 3 point D has been horrendous this year 49% from deep while their offense makes less than 24% of their triples. They are 1-2 with 2 double digit losses and their only win was vs Bethesda. They have been poor on the road winning only 6 of their last 31. SUU also has a game @ Gonzaga in 2 days (on Monday) so they might be a bit distracted here. Lay it with Nebraska Omaha.

#704 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over Southern Indiana, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota is 1-2 on the season with their losses coming in OT vs Utah Tech and @ Creighton where they played well losing by 16 as a 26 point dog. The Coyotes have some continuity returning this year with 4 regulars (3 starters this year) that played key roles last season. Southern Indiana sits at 0=2 and has all transfers in their starting line up and only 1 player that played here last year in their top 8. It’s going to take some time them to figure out how to play together. These 2 faced off last season @ Southern Indiana and South Dakota was a 2.5 point road favorite in that one and lost outright. We were on SIU in that game as South Dakota was coming off an upset win @ Western Michigan just a few days earlier and the set up to take Southern was solid. We’re now getting the Coyotes at home, where they were 14-2 last season, laying only a few points more than they did on the road last season. The Screaming Eagles are 0-1 on the road this year and have been a terrible road team going 5-27 SU away from home since the start of the 2023 season. It’s early in the season but South Dakota has been the much better shooting team to date hitting almost 47% of their shots compared to 33% for Southern Indiana (344th nationally). The Screaming Eagles are also averaging less than 1.00 point per possession so far this season. Let’s take South Dakota at home on Wednesday night.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -7 vs. Golden State Warriors - 8PM ET - Golden State just played in Denver last week and was +9.5 points and now they are catching a smaller number at OKC? The Thunder are rated as the best team in the NBA with an eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) of +13.2, Denver is 2nd at +13.1. Golden State ranks 13th in eDIFF and they’ve played a weaker schedule than the Thunder. The Thunder are 4-0 SU at home with a +14.4ppg average margin of victory. Since the start of last season, including the playoffs, the Thunder are 50-8 SU at home with a plus +16.2ppg average differential. THAT INCLUDES THE PLAYOFFS against the other best teams in the NBA. Golden State has a very respectable 28-26 SU road record going back to the start of last year, but are 1-5 SU away from home this season with the only win coming at LA against the Lakers. The Warriors five road losses have come by 5-points or more, three of those L’s came by double digits. We will take the Champs on their home court and expect a 10+ point win in this one.

#632 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -1.5 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET - CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days. They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight. CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday). The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive. UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country. The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games. Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12. This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight. This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight. NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions. NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate. They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season. We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -1.5 over St Thomas, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - St Thomas is in a really tough situational spot here. They played on the West Coast @ St Mary’s last Monday (lost by 26), then played at home vs a bad Army team (ranked 340th per KenPom) and won by just 7, and now 48 hours later they are back on the West Coast to take on Washington State. The Cougars are in must win mode here after dropping their first 2 games vs Idaho and Davidson. In their home opener vs Idaho, Wazzu was a -7.5 point favorite and now just 1 week later they are laying under 2 (current line -1.5) vs a St Thomas team that is similarly rated to Idaho. In that 83-81 loss, the Cougs shot just 6 of 28 from deep (21%) while Idaho made nearly 40% of their triples and the game still went to the wire. In 2 games, Wazzu is just 12 of 49 from deep and we would expect some positive regression here, especially at home. Just prior to the regular season, the Cougars faced a solid New Mexico team (95th per KenPom) in a scrimmage and knocked off the Lobos which tells us they just might be better than they’ve played in the first 2 games and they are most likely undervalued here laying a short number here. The Tommies were walloped on the West Coast in their opener vs St Mary’s and then struggled to put away Army at home. They shot 50% in that game and made 7 more FT’s and still only won by 7. The spot heavily favors Washington State and we’ll take the Cougs on Monday night.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Bradley -9.5 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Bradley is off a tight 69-63 loss vs a good St Bonaventure that is projected to be one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 this year and finished 22-12 last season. That game was on a neutral court in South Carolina and now the Braves are back at home where they were 13-3 last season and 41-7 since the start of the 2022 season. The Braves finished 2nd in the Missouri Valley last season with a 28-9 overall record and they are projected as one of the top 3 teams in that league this year. CMU, on the other hand, is projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this year and the Chippewas have had only 1 winning season since 2018. However, CMU did win their season opener giving us some value on Bradley here. The Chippewas beat App State at home on Monday but they were fortunate as the Shot Quality stats had them losing that game by 6. CMU is projected as a bottom 4 team in the MAC and now we’re getting some value at home with one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley at home off a loss.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30pm ET - This is a short number with the road team so we’ll lay it with the Rockets in this “big State” rivalry. After opening the season with a pair of losses the Rockets have ripped off 5 straight wins, 3 of which were on the road. Houston currently has the best eDIFF (efficiency differential) in the at +13. They currently rank 1st in offensive efficiency, 6th defensively. The Spurs have some great numbers too including an eDIFF of +8.3, ranking 2nd in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. Houston has one of, if not the biggest starting lineup in the league and basically everyone can switch and still guard Wemby. The big advantage we like in Houson’s favor is their #1 ranked 3PT% of 42.7% going head-to-head with a Spurs defense that ranks 26th in 3PT% defense allowing 38.4% on the season. The young Spurs don’t shoot it nearly as well from deep ranking 15th in 3PT%, 15th. San Antonio has feasted on opponents by crashing the offensive glass but that won’t be an asset tonight against the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. We like the vet Rockets to get it done Friday.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Kent State -5.5 over Cornell, Friday at 7 PM ET - Kent is off an OT loss here at home on Monday vs Troy. This now becomes an important game early in the season as they don’t want to lose back to back home games to start the season. The Golden Flashes are tough to beat at home where they were 34-10 SU the prior 3 years. In their loss they simply shot very poorly making only 38% of their shots while Troy was throwing everything in the ocean hitting 52% from the field. Even with that discrepancy, the game still went to OT. Look for the Kent defense to play much better tonight as they were very solid last year (83rd in defensive efficiency) under long time head coach Senderoff who has nine 20 win seasons as the head man here. It wasn’t a bad loss by any means as Troy was an NCAA tourney team last season, but a game if Kent shoots just OK they win. The Flashes had quality shots they just didn’t make them. In fact, the post game shot quality score for this game should have been 100-84 in favor of Kent. One positive is they had a very good rebounding game with 44 boards (+11 margin) and that should continue here vs a Cornell team that was a poor rebounding team last year. Kent returns 3 starters and picked up some big transfers from UNLV, Cincinnati, and Niagara and we expect them to be one of the top teams in the MAC again this year after finishing 24-12 last season. Cornell lost 3 key starters from last year’s team that combined to average over 40 PPG. This is their first game of the year and they are walking into a tough situation. We’ll lay this small number with Kent State.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -4.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - The Bulls are 3-0 with all three wins coming against playoff qualifying teams from a year ago. They have gotten great all around contributions with 6 players scoring in double-digits in all three games. The Bulls have the 10th best FG% in the NBA at 48.1% and are shooting 37% from beyond the arc (11th). They also have the 7th best FG% defense and best 3PT% D in the NBA. The Kings have gotten off to a 1-3 SU start and are in a tough scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They also are coming off an emotional game in OKC last night. Last season the Kings were 5-11 SU when playing without rest with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Chicago is on a 13-7 SU run when playing with a rest advantage dating back to last season. To be honest, the Kings have the better roster, but the Bulls are playing hard for Billy Donovan right now and benefit from scheduling. Lay it with the home team.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Boston Celtics, 7pm ET - Last season these two teams were eerily similar with the Cavs have the 2nd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +9.6, the Celtics were right behind them at +9.4. But that Celtics roster included Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford who are injured (Tatum) or not on the roster anymore. The Cavs return the core of their roster including All-Stars Mobley and Mitchell. The Cavs were -2-point favorites at Detroit and at New York this season and we grade those two teams significantly better than this Celtics roster. Boston is coming off their first win of the season at New Orleans who currently rate as the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to eDiff. The Cavs have won 2 straight games against Eastern Conference contenders the Bucks and Pistons. Cleveland is shooting the ball significantly better than the Celtics right now at 47.6% overall (11th) and 36.8% from deep (11th) compared to Boston’s numbers of 44.8% and 31.9% which both rank 26th or worse in the NBA.

ASA play on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 pm ET - It’s the battle of “beatens” tonight as the 0-3 Celtics take on the 0-2 Pelicans. New Orleans does enjoy a scheduling advantage here as they last played on Friday, while the Celtics played yesterday making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and it’s also their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have some injuries to their bigs and it's shown in their first two games, but a small lineup tonight won’t hurt them. Boston has been outrebounded 108-75 in their last two games as the offseason losses of Porzingis, Horford and Kornet have taken a toll on their frontcourt. New Orleans has lost two close games to the Grizzlies and Spurs and have been dominated inside with opponents averaging 60ppg in the paint. The Celtics can’t take advantage of that weakness as they rank 24th in points scored in the paint. Boston lives and dies with the 3-point shot and the Pelicans are 2nd in the league in 3PT% defense at 30%. The Celtics still have a bullseye on their backs from a Championship two years ago so it’s not like the Pelicans will be looking past them here. There is a reason the Pels are favored here, lay the points!

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +8.5 at LA Clippers, 9:10pm ET - The Blazers clearly have some controversy swirling around their team with their head coach on leave after gambling implications, but the players should put that behind them here in a big game in Los Angeles. The Blazers are going to be better than anticipated anchored by a formidable defense. The Blazers had the 4th best Defensive Net rating in the NBA a year ago post All-Star break and this year's squad has potential to be better with the addition of Jrue Holiday. Portland didn’t let the noise distract them Friday night when they pounded the Warriors 139-119 at home. The Clippers were embarrassed in the season opener in Utah but bounced back on Friday with a 27-point win over the Suns. L.A. has a rebuilt roster with several new faces and make take a little time to jell with all of the ‘alpha’s’ in that lineup. Portland had an average road differential of minus -1.2ppg on the road last season after the All-Star break with a 6-8 record. This should be a tight defensive game from start to finish.

ASA play on: Hornets +4.5 at 76ers, 7:40pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets looked sharp in their season opener, dismantling the Brooklyn Nets 136-117 behind a franchise-record nine players in double figures, including 25 points from Brandon Miller and 20 points with eight assists from LaMelo Ball. Their balanced attack and 53.3% field goal shooting signal a team that's bought into new coach Charles Lee's system early—no injuries to report, and they're riding high heading into Philly. On the flip side, the 76ers' 117-116 thriller over the Celtics was a mirage propped up by unsustainable shooting from Tyrese Maxey (40 points on 13-of-24) and rookie VJ Edgecombe (34 points on 13-of-26), who combined for a ridiculous 26-of-50 from the field. That's 52% efficiency on high volume—well above Maxey's career 45.5% mark or any reasonable rookie baseline for Edgecombe. Expect regression tonight, especially with Charlotte's backcourt (Ball, Tre Mann) primed to hound them. Joel Embiid was a non-factor in his return from knee surgery, logging just 20 minutes with four points on 1-of-9 shooting and visibly limited mobility—no lift on shots, slow recovery on the floor. He's on a strict minutes cap and doesn't look anywhere near MVP form yet, leaving the Sixers thin inside against Charlotte's frontcourt depth (Miles Bridges' 18-11 double-double in the opener). Paul George remains sidelined with a knee issue, thinning the wings further.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - You may be shocked by the following but the Nuggets have dominated the Warriors in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last ten meetings. Denver is our pick to win the Championship this season with a much improved roster over last years, with the additions of Bruce Brown, Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Jonas Valanciunas. The Warriors looked good in their opener against the Lakers who were without LeBron, but now they step up in class against this Championship contender. Denver will again center everything they do around Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray. SGA may have won the MVP a year ago but the best player in the league was Jokic. The Joker played in just two games against the Warriors a year ago and scored 71 total points, grabbed 22 rebounds and dished out 15 assists. Golden State brought in Al Horford at center but his days of being able to contain Jokic are long gone. Denver was one of just 12 teams in the league to have a positive point differential on the road at +2.1ppg. Golden State is not as dominant at home like they used to be as they were 24-17 SU at home a year ago with an average MOV of +2.2ppg. The much better team is getting points here and we will gladly jump in with a play on Denver.

ASAwins NBA play on Toronto Raptors +5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - There are some high expectations for the Hawks this season and they find themselves in the unfamiliar role as the ‘hunted’ instead of the ‘hunter’. Atlanta made some bold moves in the offseason and brought in Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to make a bid for the Eastern Conference title. We love the young talent on this roster with Risacher, Johnson and Daniels but we’re not sure they are ready to make that type of jump, especially early on. Toronto is a sleeper team this season and one that could surprise teams early on. This Raptors team has a solid starting lineup with Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl which played well in the second half of the season a year ago. Toronto was 22-21 in the second half of the season with elite defensive numbers. From the All-Star break on, the Raptors Defensive Efficiency rating of 1.122 points allowed per possession was top 10 in the NBA. Even with injuries last season the Raptors average loss margin on the road was -5.8ppg. Atlanta was 21-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of minus -1.3ppg. The Hawks were 7-13 ATS as a home favorite last season with a plus/minus of +0.3ppg. Raptors also 21-17 ATS as a road pooch. We will grab the points but don’t be shocked if Toronto wins this outright.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 at Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder have proven time and time again; they are championship quality and bounce back after a loss. OKC has won 5 straight playoff games when coming off a loss in the previous game and have a 18-2 SU record the entire season in that situation. Not only that, the average winning margin by OKC in those games off a loss is +14.1ppg. In the three game series the Thunder have a positive Net rating of +1.6, the Pacers are -1.6. OKC is shooting below season standards in this series at 44.8%, after hitting 47.7% during the regular season (7th best). Indiana has shot above expectations in the 3-game series and we expect a regression in their numbers in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead. OKC had the best Defensive Efficiency rating this season and held opponents to 43.6% shooting (1st). The Thunder had an average MOV on the road this season of +7.5ppg. The Pacers played at a very high level in Game 3 and got a HUGE effort from their bench, which will be tough to duplicate here. We are going to lay the points with OKC.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:00 pm ET (Game 2) Sunday - I’m guessing most of you watched Game 1 so a recap really isn’t necessary. The bottom line is this. The Pacers led once with less than 1-second in the game. OKC led by as many as 15-points but Indiana made a few huge 3’s late to pull out the win. Down 0-1 at home we expect a blowout win by the Thunder in Game 2. Let’s not forget, the Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-8 SU at home this entire season, 34-15-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. We like OKC to bounce back here.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder had a historic run this regular season with 54 of their 68 wins coming by double digits. They are 43-7 SU at home this entire season, 34-14-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.9ppg. The last team to be that dominant at home was the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018-19 when they won by an average of 12.2ppg. To win the NBA title the historic numbers that support the eventual Champion, tried and true, are the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating. Teams that win it all dating back a decade plus must rank top 11 in both OEFF and DEFF to win it all. OKC ranks 1st defensively and 3rd offensively this season. Indiana is 9th in OEFF, 13th in DEFF. Granted the Pacers have been fantastic on the road in the postseason but let’s not forget that they trailed BIG in several games and made massive comebacks in the second half. That is unlikely to happen in Oklahoma City against this defense. In the regular season meeting on this court in February, the Thunder won 132-111 as an -8-point chalk. We call for another double-digit win in Game 1.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 at NY Knicks, 8pm ET - I hate to say this…but the Pacers seem like a team of destiny…at least until they face the Thunder in the Finals, but let’s save that for another day. We will beat the dead horse and repeat that the Pacers, statistically by many standards, have been the best team in the NBA since January 1st. They have a +4.5 Net Rating in the postseason with an 11-3 SU record. They beat the best team in the East in Cleveland and knocked off a pretty good Bucks team. They have no problems winning on the road with a -1 SU record and a plus +5.0 Net Rating away from home. A big reason for the Pacers road success is their eFG% of 60.1%. Indiana is shooting over 42% from beyond the arc in this postseason on the road. New York has already lost 5 home games in the playoffs including two to this Pacers team. The Knicks were favored in both of those games by a similar number and KAT was 100% in those games. Towns tweaked his knee in the last game and doesn’t look like he’ll be full speed for this one. The Knicks are just 2-7 ATS their last seven home games and have an overall Net Rating in the Garden of +1.9 in these playoffs. We like Indiana here and will even sprinkle in a small moneyline wager at +155.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.