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#679/680 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Houston vs Duke, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - These 2 met in the Sweet 16 last season and it was a 56 possession grinder with Duke coming out on top 54-51.  While we don’t expect the scoring to be that low in this one, we still anticipate a low possession game with 2 very high level defenses that will lead to an Under in this one.  Houston ranks as the #1 defense in the nation (efficiency) and they allow only 58 PPG which is also #1 nationally.  They have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 60 points or less including Purdue (7th nationally in offensive efficiency) and Tennessee (17th).  The Big 12 had 5 teams ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and Houston played 9 games vs those opponents.  Only 1 topped 65 points in those 9 games and those teams averaged 61 PPG vs Houston.  We don’t expect them to hold Duke, the #1 offense in efficiency, to those numbers but we also don’t look for the Devils to go wild offensively in this one.  The Blue Devils have fantastic offensive numbers but they’ve played a very weak schedule of defensive teams this season which lends to those stats.  They haven’t faced a team in the NCAA tourney that is ranked in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and the only ACC team that ranks in the top 20 in that metric was Clemson (17th) who held the Devils to 71 points.  What doesn’t get talked about enough is how good Duke is defensively.  They rank 4th in the country in efficiency and 7th in PPG allowed (62 PPG).  They have held 3 of their 4 tourney opponents to 66 points or fewer including limiting the #1 scoring team in the country, Alabama, to only 65 points in their most recent game.  That’s the same Bama team that was averaging 91 PPG on the season and had scored 90, 80, and 113 points in their first 3 NCAA games before hitting a wall vs this Duke defense.  The Blue Devils have played 38 games this season and have allowed more than 70 points only 7 times.  As we stated, we expect a low possession game as Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and Duke is a slower paced team this season as well (268th).  Both defenses make opponents work incredibly hard for shots with Houston’s opponents getting a shot off every 18.7 seconds (12th longest in the country) and Duke’s opponents every 19 seconds (5th longest).  A tough shooting venue in the Alamo Dome and we like the Under here.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Under 160 Points – Auburn vs Florida, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These 2 met once this year in early February and that total was set at 156. The game was played @ Auburn and the Gators pulled off the 90-81 win pushing it Over the total. There were 74 possessions in that game but we expect a slower paced game here as most teams reign it in a bit this late in the season. Every possession is huge. These 2 have combined to average 69 possessions per game in their 8 NCAA tourney game which is below their average for the season. We don’t think this rematch gets anywhere near the 171 posted in the first game. This game is being played at the Alamo Dome which is a huge arena meant for football, not basketball. It’s a tough shooting venue which has hosted 4 other Final 4’s and the average total points scored here in those previous games was 146. Of the 12 games played in the Final 4 and National Championship game at the Alamo Dome, only 2 reached 160+ total points. These 2 defenses are elite. They both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Auburn’s offense has posted PPP numbers (offensive efficiency) below their season average for 8 consecutive games. Defensively they have not allowed more than 70 points in this tourney. The Gators have been held under their PPP season average on offense in 4 of their last 5 games but they’ve held each of their opponents in this tourney below their offensive efficiency average. Once you hit the Final 4, it’s really tough for both teams to put up big offensive numbers in a game. In fact, over the last 15 seasons, there have been 45 Final 4 & National Championship games and only FOUR have reached 160+ total points. Both teams being from the SEC, they know each other very well and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points which keeps this Under the total.

#671/672 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points Nebraska vs Georgetown, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Crown Classic had a high scoring first day with all 4 games going Over the total but evened out yesterday with a 2-2 mark to the Over. Because of day 1, the totals were getting steamed up on Tuesday and this one is set too high. Both Nebraska and Georgetown went Over in their match ups vs Arizona State and Washington State respectively. The Huskers were on pace to go way Under the total vs a fast paced ASU team when the 2 went crazy in the final minutes. They scored 32 points in the final 3 minutes of the game and with just 1:20 remaining they still only had 146 total points (ended with 164). The Huskers shot 51% for the game which is well above their season average of 45%. We don’t expect a duplicate performance vs a Hoya defense that allows opponents to shoot 42% and gives up just 69 PPG on the season. On the other end of the court, we think Georgetown will struggle offensively vs a solid Nebraska defense (42nd nationally in defensive efficiency). The Hoyas will most likely be without their top 3 scorers again in this game and playing with only 5 scholarship players. They only had 1 starter available on Monday, Malik Mack, who averaged 11 PPG on the season and he went crazy scoring 37 of their points (45% of their total points) and made 8 of 12 from deep. Mack shot 31.9% from 3 on the season and that performance from Monday won’t be duplicated here. Neither team shoots the 3 very well (240th and 267th nationally) and both teams do a good job of not sending opponents to the FT line (both top 75 in opponent FT attempts per game). Nebraska games averaged 148 total points this season while Georgetown games averaged 141. We’re getting some solid value here because of their opening round games and the way this tourney has been trending the first 8 games. Let’s take this one Under the total.

#645/646 ASA PLAY ON Under 148.5 Points – Michigan State vs Auburn, Sunday at 5 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine all season with a 25-11 mark. We were on the Under in the MSU vs Ole Miss game on Friday which cashed and we’re jumping back on here. Both of these defenses are elite ranking 4th (MSU) and 8th (Auburn) nationally in defensive efficiency. They both defend the arc at a top 10 rate as well (MSU 2nd and Auburn 7th). Sparty is a poor 3 point shooting team (318th) and the simply don’t attempt many triples (356th in percentage of points from deep). The Tigers are better shooting from 3 but not elite (55th in the country) and MSU limits opponents to around 6 made 3’s per game. We don’t expect a ton of points from deep in this game. Both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to adjusted tempo (134th and 179th) but they’ve played at a slower pace during the tourney which is to be expected. Especially MSU who tallied only 64 possessions on Friday vs Ole Miss (who has a similar tempo to Auburn) and 65 possessions vs New Mexico who is one of the fastest paced teams in the country (7th). Sparty has allowed 62, 63, and 70 points in their 3 games in the NCAA tourney and the 70 game vs Ole Miss who made a near half court heave as time expired or they would have been at 67. Auburn has allowed just 63, 70, and 65 points in their 3 games. Michigan State’s offense has been held under their season efficiency average in 5 of their last 6 games while Auburn has been held under their offensive efficiency average in 7 straight games. Now with each offense facing a top 10 defense, we don’t think they get anywhere near their average efficiency numbers in this one. Pressure packed game to get to the Final 4 where the defenses are the best units on the court. Under is the call.

#635/636 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 points – Michigan State vs Mississippi, Friday at 7 PM ET - We have 2 very defensive minded coaches in this game with Izzo and Beard. Both defenses rank in the top 21 in efficiency (MSU 5th and Ole Miss 21st). MSU’s defense has been top 10 all season long. They allow just 67 PPG on the season and held Bryant to 62 points and New Mexico to 63 in their 2 tourney games. Both of those teams like to play very fast (both top 10 tempo) and have good offensive efficiency numbers and Sparty shut them down to 0.87 and 0.97 PPP. The Spartan have played 35 games this season and only 11 of those opponents topped 70 points. In their 2 tourney games, Ole Miss held a red hot UNC, who had scored at least 80 points in 7 of their previous 12 games, to just 64 points. Over the weekend the Rebs had a high scoring game vs Iowa State (91-78 final) but Ole Miss had an outlier offensive performance hitting 58% of their shots AND 58% of their 3 pointers. Even with that, the game was at 130 total points with 5:00 minutes remaining and with ISU down by double digits, they pushed the pace and the 2 teams scored 39 points from that point on. MSU shoots very few 3’s and when they do the hit only 31% (323rd nationally). On the other end, the Rebels are an OK 3 point shooting team (122nd nationally) however the Spartans are the #1 three point D in the country allowing 27.8%. Both offenses haven’t been overly efficient away from home this season with MSU averaging 1.04 PPP and Ole Miss 1.07. This game is being played at State Farm Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks, and an unfamiliar venue to both teams which could affect shooting. MSU has been an Under juggernaut all season with a 24-11 mark and we look for another one on Friday. Both defenses allow less than 0.96 PPP on the season they are the 2 best units on the floor. Play the Under here.

#877/878 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 137.5 points - Arkansas State vs North Texas, Sunday at 7 PM ET - We were on Arkansas State in their first round NIT match up with St Louis and picked up an easy win with the Red Wolves rolling up huge offensive numbers (103-78 Final). They shot 54% overall and 46% from deep in what was a very fast paced game with 75+ possessions. That won’t happen here. First of all, UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do with every game. Secondly, UNT’s defense is outstanding ranking 46th in efficiency, 27th in eFG% allowed, and 19th in 3 point FG% allowed. The Mean Green played a number of games vs high potent, fast paced offenses and for the most part they shut them down in low possession games. They held a high scoring Memphis team (80 PPG) that plays very fast (28th in tempo) to just 68 points on 1.05 PPP (just 65 possessions). They held UAB (81 PPG), who also plays very fast, to just 61 and 66 points in games of just 60 and 64 possessions. Arkansas St averages 79 PPG but they aren’t a great shooting team. They rank 294th in FG% and 288th in 3 point FG%. When they played slow paced, good defensive teams in the Sun Belt (App State and South Alabama) they totaled 116, 120, and 145 points (on only 65 possessions in that last game). UNT is back at home here where they beat Furman 75-64 in a game that had only 58 possessions. The Mean Green are an average shooting team (45%) but hit just under 55% in that game vs a Furman D that ranks 200th in efficiency. Now they face a top 100 D in Arkansas State. Both teams defend the arc at a high level (both top 20) so we don’t expect a ton of points from deep. UNT has allowed 70+ points since December and ASU’s defense allowed 70+ only 6 times in their 18 regular season conference games. This has the makings of a very low possession game where the defenses dominate. Under.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 150.5 Points - St Mary’s vs Alabama, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - This total is set too high. We think this gets to the mid 40’s at best and most likely lower. We understand why it’s set high with the Crimson Tide leading the nation in scoring at 91 PPG. We don’t see them getting anywhere close to that in this game. That’s because St Mary’s will slow the heck out of this game (4th slowest team in the country) and the Gaels are also a high level defensive team (7th in the country in D efficiency). It’s much easier to slow a fast team down rather than speed up a slow team. Nobody has been able to get STM going at a high pace. While they are facing the #1 scoring team in the nation on Sunday, the Gaels have already taken on the #2 scoring team (Gonzaga) 3 times. The Zags average 87 PPG on the season and play very fast. In their games vs St Mary’s, they averaged only 61 PPG and held the Zags under 60 points twice. None of those 3 match ups topped 63 possessions. In Friday’s game, STM faced Vandy who is a very high tempo team that ranks 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency and the final score was 59-56 on only 59 possessions. This team has zero chance to win this game in a shootout and they’ll make sure it doesn’t turn into that. On the other end, we’ve talked about Bama’s offense, but their defense is very sold ranking 34th in efficiency. They defend the arc very well (26th) as does St Mary’s (44th). Both teams limit with only 26.9% of STM’s opponents points coming from deep (335th) and 27.1% of Bama’s opponents points coming from 3 (329th). If this one plays out as we expect, we just don’t see how this gets to 150 points unless both teams shoot lights out. We’re on the Under.

#827/828 ASA PLAY ON Over 154.5 Points – BYU vs Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Two of the most efficient offenses in the country going at it in Denver in what we expect will be a high scoring game. BYU ranks 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and Wisconsin ranks 13th and they both average 80 PPG which puts them in the top 35 in the country. These 2 teams shooting the highest percentage of 3’s in the tourney (both around 48% of their shots are triples) and they make them at a high rate (37% and 35%). The weakness of both teams on defense is defending the arc with the Badgers ranking 183rd allowing 33% and BYU ranking 243rd giving up 35%. We think both teams will scoring in bunches from deep. This should be a fairly quick tempo as well with Wisconsin completely changing their philosophy and pushing the ball this season while BYU prefers the same. We shouldn’t have many empty possessions as the Badgers are among the best in the country at taking care of the ball (25th in turnovers per game) and while the Cougs do have a tendency to turn it over, Wisconsin doesn’t create many takeaways (327th). We should see plenty of freebies as well with the Badgers getting to the FT line a lot (30th in FT attempts per game) and they make them at over 83% (#1 in the nation). These two have a combined record of 40-29 to the Over this season and we see another shootout on Saturday.

#787/798 ASA PLAY ON Over 160 Points – Xavier vs Illinois, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with high level offenses should equal a high scoring game here. The Illini average 84 PPG on the season and they are a top 15 offense in terms of efficiency. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team (18th nationally) so extra opportunities on the offensive end should be available. They are not a good 3 point shooting team, however that speaks to how good their offense is despite that (PPG & efficiency). If they shoot above average from deep, this offense can up piles of points (they put up big time points without doing that). They should do plenty of damage inside ranking 18th in 2 point FG% facing an undersized XU defense that ranks 159th defending inside the arc. Xavier is the 9th best 3 point shooting team in the country and facing an Illinois defense whose weakness is guarding the arc (143rd nationally). Both teams are very good at taking care of the ball so wasted possessions will be few. We should get a bunch of extra points from the FT line as both shoot it very well (79% for XU and 76% for Illinois). The Illini are 18th in adjusted tempo and Xavier is 76th so we’ll have plenty of possessions in this game. A fast paced team with 2 teams that rank in the top 65 nationally in PPP vs OK but not great defenses should lead to big points. We like both to get to 80 in this game giving us an Over.

#745/746 ASA PLAY ON Under 134 Points - McNeese State vs Clemson, Thursday at 3:15 PM ET (Providence, RI) - These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the tourney facing off so we do not expect many offensive possessions.  Clemson ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and McNeese ranks 283rd.  What we really like about this match up in regards to the Under, is both defenses make opposing offenses really work to get a decent shot.  Clemson’s opponents average a shot every 19.1 seconds which is the 2nd best mark in the country.  McNeese opponents average a shot every 18.6 seconds which is 19th in the country.  The Tigers had the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the ACC behind only Duke and 16th best in the nation.  The Cowboys were by far the best defensive team (efficiency) in the Southland and they rank 66th nationally.  Against higher level offensive teams early in the season, McNeese held Alabama (#1 scoring offense in the country) to 72 points, the Tide’s 2nd lowest point total of the year and 19 points below their season average.  They also held Mississippi State to 66 points (they average 80 PPG) and they held Liberty, NCAA tourney team and one of the best shooting teams in the country, to 62 points which was also their season low.  Both create defensive turnovers at a high rate (both #1 in their conferences) which leads to empty possessions for their opponent.  Clemson held 11 of their final 13 opponents to less than 70 points with only Duke (#3 nationally in offensive efficiency) and Louisville (#29 in offensive efficiency) topping that number.  McNeese only allowed 7 of their 31 opponents this season to top 70 points.  This has the makings of a low possession (low 60’s?), defensive battle and we’ll grab the Under.

#747/748 ASA PLAY ON Over 152 Points – High Point vs Purdue, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - We expect both offense to have a lot of success in this one. Both rank in the top 10 nationally in FG% and Purdue ranks 7th nationally in offensive efficiency while High Point steps in at 25th in that metric. While the Panthers are really good offensively (18th nationally averaging 82 PPG) they are really poor defensively. Their defensive efficiency ranks 227th which is the 6th worst mark in the 68 team NCAA field. Their pick and roll defense is really poor which is bad news facing a Purdue team with PG Smith and F Kaufman-Renn are as good as any duo in the country at P&R offense. The top P&R offense in the Big South, UNC Asheville, lit the High Point defense up for 103 and 86 points in their 2 meetings and they are nowhere near the same level as this Purdue offense. On the other end, High Point should be able to put up points vs this Purdue defense that was way down from previous editions ranking 12th in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and dead last in 2 points FG% allowed. The Panthers are a very good 3 point shooting team (36.6% and all of their top 7 players hit at least 33% from deep) but they like to work inside the arc as well where they rank 15th in the country in 2 point FG% which matches up well against the Boiler defense. Both offenses are very solid at protecting the ball and above average offensive rebounding teams so both should have decent shot volume numbers in this game (both top 70 in FG’s made per game). High Point is going to have to put the ball in the hoop to keep up here because they won’t be able to stop Purdue. We think the Panthers can do that and this one sails Over the Total.

#643/644 ASA PLAY ON Under 144 Points - Florida vs Tennessee, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This total opened 140 and has crept up to 143.5 and 144.  Too high in our opinion.  We understand why with the Gators coming of 2 very high scoring games in this SEC tourney vs Missouri (176 total points) and Alabama (186 total points).  Florida went off on offense averaging 1.30 and 1.33 PPP in those 2 wins.  Those were ultra fast paced games with 73 and 78 possessions vs defensive teams that didn’t match  up very well with the Gators.  Now we have a Tennessee team that will slow this game down and they match up very well defensively vs Florida who like to get out in transition.  In the first meeting the Vols did allow 18 points on the break which was the most they’ve given up this season.  They made adjustments in the second meeting and Florida had only 8 fast break points.  You can bet UT will make sure the Gators can’t get out and run today.  On the other side, the Vols aren’t a great shooting team ranking 8th in the SEC in 3 point FG% and 11th in 2 point FG% and they are running into a high level Florida defense that is 7th nationally in defensive efficiency (Tenn is 3rd nationally in that metric).  When it comes to eFG% defense, Tennessee ranks #1 in the country and Florida #6.  Both of these defenses are elite.  In their 2 meetings this year they totaled 116 points (73-43 Florida win) and 110 points (64-44 Tennessee win).  As you can see, only 1 team topped 70 in those 2 meetings and twice they were held under 50 points.  These 2 defenses are fantastic defending the arc (1st and 7th nationally) and it showed in those 2 meetings where they combined to go 20 of 98 from 3.  These teams know each other very well and obviously know how to defend the opposing offense.  They’ve had 4 straight Unders in this series with 3 of those games failing to top 123 total points.  We don’t think either team gets to 70 points here so grabbing the Under.

#609/610 ASA PLAY ON Under 145.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on MSU vs Oregon Under yesterday and we’re coming right back with another Under on Saturday. MSU ranks 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency and since mid February they rank 1st in the country in that metric. Yesterday they completely shut down Oregon from beyond the arc (21% shooting) and allowed just 64 points. The Spartans have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 66 points or less including limiting Wisconsin to just 62 points on March 2nd. The Badgers shot just 34% and made only 5 triples in that 71-62 loss. On Friday they lit up UCLA shooting 52% and hit 19 three pointers and we anticipate they come nowhere near that on Saturday vs Sparty. While Wisconsin’s offense has been talked about all season, their defense has quietly become really good. Their defense has moved into the top 30 nationally in efficiency and since February 1st they rank 23rd in that metric. They held the Spartans to less than 1.00 PPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. MSU did hit 47% of their 3’s yesterday (and the game still only reached 138) and that is not the norm for this team who averages 30% from beyond the arc (324th nationally). The Spartan defense is set up perfectly to defend Wisconsin’s 3 point attack as they allow just 27% on the season (2nd nationally) and held the Badgers to 5 of 32 from deep on March 2nd. This has been a defensive series with only 1 of the last 6 meetings topping 134 points and the average total points scored in those 6 meetings was 134. Tired legs could be a factor in shooting success on Saturday with Wisconsin playing their 3rd game in 3 days and MSU playing their 2nd in back to back days. These teams know each other very well and we’ll call for a lower scoring game than expected.

#825/826 ASA PLAY ON Under 148 Points - Wichita State vs Memphis, Friday at 1 PM ET - In their 2 meetings this season, these AAC foes totaled 114 and 142 (in regulation) and both games were under 70 possessions in regulation (one went to double OT).  The teams dominated on the defensive end in those meetings with PPP numbers (efficiency) of 1.09, 1.03, 0.90, and 0.77.  Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot (12th and 13th in the AAC in offensive turnover rate) and that leads to empty possessions.  In fact, in their 2 meetings this season there were a whopping 60 combined turnovers.  Memphis likes to play fast but it was obvious with the tempo results of the 2 games that Wichita wants to make this a slower paced game.  Their offense isn’t good enough (283rd in offensive efficiency and 349th in 3 point FG%) to win a high scoring affair so we expect another game with the possessions in the 60’s.  Both defenses are very solid ranking #1 (Memphis) and #4 in efficiency in conference play.  Neither team takes many 3 pointers with the Shockers ranking 358th in 3 point attempts and the Tigers 299th.  They only combined to make 23 triples in their 2 games this season and shot just 39% from the field.  Neither team topped 71 points in either game in regulation and we don’t think they will here.  Under.

#813/814 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Michigan State vs Oregon, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU is one of the top defensive teams in the country (5th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Oregon is no slouch (30th nationally in defensive efficiency).  Sparty has been great on defense all season long and the Ducks have upped their game on that end of the court over the last month.  In fact, Oregon has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP including a Wisconsin offense that ranks 12th nationally averaging 1.23 PPP.  In fact, since mid February the Ducks defense ranks 12th in the country in efficiency and MSU ranks 2nd.  The Spartans have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 66 points or less including potent offensive teams Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois (all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency).  Oregon has had 2 OT games over their last 7, however if we strictly look at regulation, they’ve also held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 68 points or less.  These 2 met once this season and they total was set at 146 and despite the 2 teams going well Over the total hitting 160 total points, the total for this game is set lower.  In that first meeting, there were 69 possessions which isn’t a lot, although we expect fewer today, MSU’s defense was terrible (very rare) in the first half allowing 50 total points to the Ducks, then held them to 24 in the 2nd half.  Then Sparty put up 50 in the 2nd half after scoring just 36 in the first half.  Both teams offensive efficiency was MUCH higher than these defenses normally allow, they combined to make 40% of their 45 three point attempts and they combined to make 40 FT’s.  We don’t see either repeating that offensive performance against defenses playing at their peak right now in a tense, tournament format.  Oregon is 50/50 on Over/Unders this season but MSU is 21-10 to the Under this season.  Buckets will be tough to come by in this game.  Let’s go Under.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Under 132.5 Points - Abilene Christian vs Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season and totaled 130 and 134 points and this number is basically set right in the middle of those 2 performances. Neither team topped 1.04 PPP in either game and 2 of the 4 offensive data points were less than 1.00 PPP. We don’t expect that to change here in a do or die setting on a neutral site (unfamiliar court). Both defenses are high level ranking the top 100 nationally in efficiency while offensive they both rank outside the top 325 in eFG%. Neither team scores much from 3 (270th and 361st in 3’s made per game) and they simply don’t shoot well from deep when they do get looks (257th and 321st in 3 point FG%). The shot volume for each team should be low in this one as both create turnovers at a high level (which leads to wasted offensive possessions) and neither are good offensive rebounding teams (which limits 2nd chances). In their 2 meetings this season, both teams in both games had turnover rates of higher than 20% which is really poor. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the WAC and while ACU prefers a faster pace, the slower team usually gets their tempo so expect a lower possession game (67.5 average possessions in first 2 meetings). Seattle’s defense allows just 59 PPG in league play and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those opponents failing to reach 60 points. In ACU’s games vs the 3 slowest paced teams in the league (Seattle, Cal Baptist and Tarleton St) the total points scored were 130, 134, 119, 143, 123, and 114 points for an average of 127. Let’s go Under in this one.

#663/664 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points - Charlotte vs Rice, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season in 2 very slow paced games and we expect the same on Wednesday. In their first meeting Rice won 66-58 in a game that had only 57 possessions. The Owls averaged 1.19 PPP in that win which is way above their AAC average of 1.08. Rice averaged only 0.96 PPP which was good but not far off their 1.03 PPP in conference play. The teams combined to shoot almost 42% which is dead on their season averages. The 2nd meeting only had 60 possessions but the 2 offenses went crazy for a 78-75 final score. They averaged 1.23 and 1.28 PPP which is WAY above their averages which we posted above. They also combined to make 23 of 47 three pointers and 38 made FT’s. The 49 attempts FT’s in the 2nd meeting were 10 more than these 2 allow combined on the season. Definitely an outlier offensive performance from both teams. Both teams rank outside the top 300 nationally in offensive FG%. Along with that they rank 298th and 183rd in 3 point FG% so we don’t look for a lights out shooting game on a neutral site in Denton, TX. If they don’t send each other to the FT line 50 times like the 2nd meeting, this should stay in the high 120’s, low 130’s. Under.

#629/630 ASA PLAY ON Over 145.5 Points – Montana State vs Northern Colorado, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total in our opinion. These 2 faced off twice this season and the totals set in those games were 152.5 and 149.5 and now we’re getting a total set 2+ possessions lower than that. Their first meeting was high scoring with NCU winning 83-82 coming back from 20 points down to pick up the road win. The more recent meeting in February ended with a final of 73-66 with NCU again coming out on top. In that game both teams played below their season offensive efficiency numbers (conference play) and by a decent margin. They combined to shoot barely 40% from the field which was also well below their season averages of 51% for NCU and 46% for MSU. Even with the offensive struggles, they still nearly got to 140 and this total is only 5 to 6 points higher than that. Montana State’s offense has been really good their last 3 games since benching leading scorer, big man Brandon Walker who was a high usage, ball stopper when it came to offensive ball movement. Since his benching, the Bobcats have topped their season PPP average (efficiency) in each of those 3 games. They are shooting 53% during that stretch while putting g up 81 PPG. They really don’t need to come close to those numbers in this game for it to go Over, just keep playing well offensively which we expect them to do. NCU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at 51% (#1 in the country) and 38% from beyond the arc (28th in the nation). They average 81 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 75 points in 13 of their 18 Big Sky games so far this season. The Bears last 2 games were fairly low scoring, however they were both vs Weber State who is a slow paced team with a bad offense (275th in offensive efficiency). Prior to that NCU had 4 straight games that reached at least 153 total points. This should be a close game so we don’t anticipate one team grabbing a big lead and coasting, both will have to “keep up” offensively. Over is the play in this Big Sky semifinal game.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 141.5 Points – Colorado State vs Boise State, Friday at 10 PM ET - These 2 MWC rivals met in late January and CSU won 75-72 with the total set at 140. There were only 62 possessions in that game but both offenses performed above their average efficiency in conference play. They scored 20 points in the final 3:00 minutes (game was at 127 with just over 3:00 remaining) to push it over. They combined to shoot 49% overall and 40.5% from beyond the arc, both above their season averages. This is a battle for 2nd place in the MWC and we expect the intensity level on the defensive end to be high for this match up in another low possession game. Both teams are playing outstanding right now on the defensive end of the court. Per Haslam Metrics, CSU has outperformed their expected defensive metrics in 5 of their last 6 games while Boise has done the same in 7 of their last 10 games. Per Bart Torvik analytics, since mid February, CSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and Boise in the top 60. The Rams are on a 6 game winning streak in which they’ve allowed an average of 59 PPG. Boise has allowed just 62 PPG over their last 10 games and they’ve allowed just 1 team to reach 70 points during that run. CSU has allowed only 3 teams to reach 70 points in their last 10 games. We expect another low possession game (241st and 265th in adjusted tempo) with not a lot of scoring opportunities (these 2 rank 294th and 312th in shot attempts per game). We don’t think either team tops 70 in this game which lands us on the Under.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Illinois Chicago vs Valparaiso, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 just played to close out the regular season on Sunday and hit 150 total points with UIC winning 77-73.  That game had 75 possessions, which was to be expected with these teams ranking 3rd and 4th in Horizon League tempo.  They got to 150 points despite the offensive efficiency numbers being quite low with UIC averaging 1.01 PPP (they average 1.08) and Valpo put up just 0.96 (they average 1.07).  That was their 2nd meeting of the season with the first one hitting 155 total points (with UIC winning 81-74).  In the 2 meetings they shot just 43% (108 of 250) overall and 33% from beyond the arc (27 of 81) so nothing great.  In fact those numbers are below both team’s season average and both meetings still pushed into the 150’s.  Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  If these teams step it up on offense and just hit their averages, this should get well into the 150’s or higher.

#707/708 ASA PLAY ON OVER 160.5 Points - Missouri vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - One very interesting aspect of this match up is that this total is set 9 points higher than the first meeting on February 12th despite that game going Under the Total. That’s a tip off in our opinion. When these to met @ Mizzou the final score was 82-58 in favor of the Tigers so well Under that posted total which was 152. Both teams played well under their offensive efficiency averages in that game (PPP) with Missouri putting up 1.11 PPP (they average 1.26) and Oklahoma 0.78 PPP (they average 1.18). The teams combined to make only 9 three point shots in 34 attempts (26%). On the season they combine to average 18 three point makes per game and both shoot around 37% from deep so that meeting was way below expectation. Both like to play up tempo and there were 74 possession in the first meeting and we’d expect a similar number here. The Sooners offense averages 83 PPG at home and they rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. Defense is not their specialty as they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 7 of their last 80 games. The Missouri offense ranks 5th in the country in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games. While we expect both offenses to play to a much higher efficiency in this game, the one thing we can probably count on is a lot of points from the FT line. In the first game they combined to make 43 FT’s which isn’t a surprise as they each rank in the top 15 nationally in FT’s made per game. If they duplicate, or even get close, to that number while pushing their averages in offensive efficiency, this should be an easy over. Both get to at least 80 points pushing this one Over.

#863/864 ASA PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points - UCLA vs Northwestern, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game should have very few offensive possessions with these teams ranking 317th and 318th in adjusted tempo, 16th and 17th in conference play only out of 18 teams. NW has slowed the pace down even more since losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers (Barnhizer & Leach) for the season to injuries. The only way they can compete after losing that offensive firepower, those 2 combined to average 32 PPG, is to turn their games into slugfests which is exactly what they’ve done. After going on a big run of Overs this season, the Cats have now gone Under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent game vs Iowa was a snapshot of exactly how they want to play. The Hawkeyes are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and are averaging 82 PPG on the year which puts them in the top 15 nationally. Last Friday night, the Cats slowed their game with Iowa to a crawl (just 61 possessions) and held the high scoring Hawks to just 57 points (68-57 final score). The NW defense has been lights out holding 4 straight opponents to 1.00 PPP or less holding those 4 opponents to 59 PPG. The Wildcat offense has actually played OK during that stretch averaging 69 PPG, however now they run into a physical UCLA defense that has much better numbers efficiency wise (17th nationally in defensive efficiency) than any of NW’s recent opponents. The Bruins have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 68 points or fewer with only Purdue, Illinois, and USC topping that number. Those offenses rank 1st, 3rd and 8th in offensive efficiency in the Big 10. Tonight the Bruins face a Northwestern offense thar ranks 18th (dead last) in the conference in eFG% and that was with 2 of their top scorers playing the vast majority of the season to this point. With those 2 gone, we don’t see much success for the Cats offense in this one. This should be a low possession, low scoring game with both defenses dominating. Take the Under.

ASA PLAY ON Under 147.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Sunday at 1:30 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine with 19 Unders in their 28 games so far this season and they are 6-2 to the Under at home in Big 10 play.  They have the top defense in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Sparty is allowing just 66 PPG in league play (#1 in the conference) and they allow that same number at home for the entire season.  Sparty has been able to slow down some very high level offenses this season limiting Illinois to 65, Purdue to 66, Michigan to 62, and Maryland to 55, all top 5 Big 10 offenses (efficiency).  MSU is one of the slower paced teams in the conference (14th in adjusted tempo) and while Wisconsin is playing faster this year, they still rank just 11th in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo.  The Badger defense struggled at times early in the season, but they’ve really played well over the last month and half or so vaulting all the way up to 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency and 4th in defensive scoring allowed.  Since late January the Wisconsin defense is rated in the top 25 in efficiency per Bart Torvik.  They’ve held 10 of their last 14 opponents to less than 70 points.  This game has huge implications in the race for the Big 10 Title with MSU in 1st place and Wisconsin in 3rd.  We think defense rules the day in this one.  These 2 have only reached 150 points twice in their last 10 meetings and the average total points scored in those match ups is just 136.  Take the Under.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 160.5 North Dakota vs St Thomas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - St Thomas is back home where their offense has been unstoppable. They are averaging 91 PPG at home, shooting 51% overall and 43% from deep. They are in the top 10 nationally in 3 point FG% and in Summit League play only the Tommies rank #1 in offensive efficiency, eFG%, offensive turnover rate, and they make 78% of their FT’s. Their offense should thrive in this game facing a UND defense that ranks outside the top 350 nationally (out of 364 teams) in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. We expect North Dakota to have success offensively here as well. They are far better offensively than they are defensively averaging 77 PPG and ranking in the top 145 in the country in offensive efficiency. In Summit League play the Fighting Hawks are averaging 80 PPG and have scored at least 70 in every game but 2. They are facing a St Thomas defense that ranks 7th in the Summit in defensive efficiency and 8th defending the arc (out of 9 teams). Both teams also like to play up tempo and in the first meeting they had 72 possessions and 168 total points with STM winning on the road 88-80. In that game St Thomas hit this conference offensive efficiency numbers dead on with 1.22 PPP while UND actually fell short of their 1.14 PPP average and only scored 1.11 PPP. They combined to make 24 three point shots in that game and we would expect similar results as these are the 2 worst teams in the conference defending the arc. We look for both teams to get to at least 80 which would put this Over the Total.

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 points - Marist vs Niagara, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These 2 are each coming off rare high scoring games on Friday evening and we think they get back to their lower scoring ways on Sunday. Marist faced off vs Canisius with a total of 131 and the final score was 89-81 going way over the total. They put up 1.29 and 1.41 PPP which is WAY above their averages of 1.03 and 1.00 PPP. Niagara faced Siena on Friday with the total set at 136 and the final score was 94-60. Niagara didn’t do much offensively with 60 points on 0.90 PPP but their defense was horrendous. Siena, the 3rd most efficient offense in the league, put up 94 points on 1.40 PPP. Two very slow paced teams (both outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo) so we won’t see many possessions here. In their first meeting these 2 scored 132 total points and that was in OT with Marist winning 67-65. At the end of regulation it was 57-57 and they totaled just 65 possessions and that included OT. It wasn’t as if the offenses were terrible either as both hit their average efficiency (PPP) in that game. That total was set at 126.5 so we’re getting some solid value with this opener at 130. These 2 MAAC rivals have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 with their only Over being the game in OT earlier this season. Low scoring, low possession game here.

#647/648 ASA PLAY ON Under 137.5 Points – Stony Brook vs North Carolina A&T, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We were on the NC A&T Under on Thursday night vs Campbell and cashed easily with a final score of 53-50 in favor of A&T. As we mentioned on Thursday, NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 56th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 5 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 5 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62, 66, and 64. Not one of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. Stony Brook’s offense isn’t much better ranking 266th in efficiency, 336th in FG%, and 342nd in scoring at just 66 PPG. On top of that, the Seawolves are very slow paced (314th in adjusted tempo) so the possessions in this game will be very limited. When these 2 met in January it was a high scoring game with Stony Brook winning 89-74. That was vs a completely different A&T team that was playing fast paced at the time and was very poor defensively. The Aggies have turned the corner on the defensive end holding 5 straight opponents to under their season PPP average and none of those opponents topped 1.06 PPP. Both teams averaged well above their season offensive efficiency average in that game but we expect them to come back to their averages and if that happens, this stays way Under. The oddsmakers still haven’t caught up to A&T’s drastic change and we’ll take advantage with another Under on Saturday.

#775/776 ASA PLAY ON Under 138 Points – Campbell vs North Carolina A&T, Thursday at 7 PM ET - NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 48th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 4 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 4 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62 (vs Campbell tonight’s opponent), and 66 and not of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Campbell defense that ranks #1 in the CAA in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed so we don’t expect much success offensively for the Aggies. When these 2 met less than 2 weeks ago they totaled 128 points (66-62 Campbell win) on just 62 possessions. They combined to shoot almost 48% and both hit well above their season average FG% in that game yet still didn’t reach 130 total points. We look for a similar outcome tonight which leads to another Under.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 Points – Rider vs St Peters, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This game should be a slow paced, low possession affair. Both teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and in their first meeting they only had 60 possessions. The total set on that game was 124.5 and the final score was 67-64 so we’re now getting some solid value on the Under which is set 5 points higher (at the open) compared to the first meeting. In that game they had combined for just 123 points with 25 seconds remaining in the game and they went on to score 8 points from that point on. Both teams played well above their average offensive efficiency with Rider putting up 1.12 PPP (they average 1.01 PPP on the season) while St Peters averaged 1.07 PPP in that game (they average 0.96 PPP on the season). These are 2 poor offenses going at it on Sunday. St Peters is dead last in the MAAC in efficiency, scoring, FG%, and 3 point FG%. Rider ranks 348th nationally in scoring, 317th in FG%, and 345th in 3 point FG%. Neither team gets to the FT line very often both ranking outside the top 200 in FT made per game. In their 13 MAAC games, St Peters has gotten to 70 points just one time and they’ve been held to 65 or less 9 times. Rider has been a little better scoring wise but they’ve been held below 70 points in 10 of their 14 conference games. If these teams don’t play well above their offensive efficiency as they did in the first meeting, we just don’t see this game getting into the 130’s. Under is the call.

#769/770 ASA PLAY ON Over 156.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs St Thomas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a very similar spot to Thursday night when Omaha traveled to South Dakota State and we were on the Over in that game and it cashed easily. In this one we have 2 teams that like to play up tempo and 2 of the best offenses in the Summit. These 2 rank #1 and #2 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they both average 84 PPG in conference play. They each shoot over 41% from beyond the arc (top 2 in the conference) and when they get to the FT line they convert at 75% and 76%. St Thomas is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 3rd in the country in FG% and 7th in 3 point FG%. Those numbers get better at home where they average 90 PPG. Nebraska Omaha put up 85 on Thursday vs the #1 defensive efficiency team in the conference, South Dakota State, and they have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their 12 Summit League games. These offenses should have big time success as the defenses are nothing to write home about. Both allow 77+ points in conference play and for the season these defenses each rank outside the top 260 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. In their first meeting less than a month ago, they combined to score 187 points in an up tempo game with 72 possessions. The Mavericks hit their conference average in PPP (efficiency) in that game while St Thomas played well below their PPP average. Both offenses are by far the best units on the court here and we expect each to get to 80 points minimum. Over.

#785/786 ASA PLAY ON Over 151.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs South Dakota State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Summit League are facing off here in what should be a high scoring game. Omaha and SDSU both average 84 PPG in league play. UNO has scored at least 77 points in all 11 of their conference games and South Dakota State has reached at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 conference games. The Jackrabbits have actually topped 100 points twice in Summit League play and they’ve been an offensive juggernaut at home averaging 90 PPG. In their home games in league play, SDSU has not been held under 84 points and they’ve scored at least 90 in 4 of their 5 at home. They should have plenty of offensive success here vs an Omaha defense that ranks 318th in eFG% allowed. SDSU’s defensive numbers are decent, but they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. Both teams shoot the 3 very well (#1 and #4 in conference play) and both like to play up tempo. In their first meeting Omaha picked up the 87-80 win for an easy Over. In that win, the Mavericks hit their conference season average in PPP (efficiency) and South Dakota State actually played below their offensive efficiency average and these 2 still nearly got to 170 total points. Four of the last five meetings between these 2 rivals have reached at least 152 points with 3 of those games topping 160. This one should be a track meet and we’ll take the Over.

#687/688 ASA PLAY ON Over 155.5 Points - IPFW vs Youngstown St, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - The 2 fastest paced teams in the Horizon face off here in what we expect will be a high scoring game. They met back in January and totaled 171 total points on a whopping 80 possessions. Looking closely at that box score, both offenses actually played below their Horizon League averages when it comes to efficiency (PPP) and they both made only 61% of their FT’s in that game and it still was very high scoring. IPFW is the best overall offense in the conference ranking #1 in scoring (83 PPG) and #1 in eFG%. They also rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the conference) so very few wasted possessions. Youngstown is 4th in the league in scoring (76 PPG) but they’ve stepped that up a notch over the last 3 weeks or so scoring 87, 84, 79, 88, and 112 points in their last 5 games. The Penguins have topped their offensive efficiency average numbers (PPP) in each of those 5 games. That should continue tonight vs an IPFW defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% allowed and 234th in defensive efficiency. The last 4 meetings between these Horizon League foes have averaged 165.5 total points with each going Over the total. Let’s call for another one tonight.

#727/728 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Rhode Island vs George Mason, Saturday at 4 PM ET - URI loves to play at a fast tempo but that won’t happen here as George Mason (ranked 312th in adjusted tempo) will keep this game at a slower pace. That’s what happened in the first meeting when URI won the game 62-59 on only 65 possessions which is nearly 10 possessions less than the Rams season average. Along with that slow pace, George Mason’s defense is one of the best in the nation ranking 10th in efficiency and allowing just 61 PPG. At home the Patriots allow only 59 PPG and in A10 play they have held 6 of their 10 opponents to 60 points or less. URI’s defense is OK (9th in the A10 in efficiency) but they match up well with a GM offense that simply isn’t very good ranking 14th out of 15 in the conference in scoring. These 2 offenses rank 13th and 14th in efficiency in the 15 team A10. They don’t take many 3’s (242nd and 307th nationally in 3 point attempts per game) and when they do they only make around 32% in conference play which isn’t great. George Mason’s defense should shut down URI again in this 2nd match up and in the first game the Patriots shot 45% which is above their season average and they still only had 59 points. George Mason has had only 1 game in conference play get into the 140’s in regulation and with today’s total set in the high 130’s, we like the value on the Under.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Over 158 Points – IPFW vs UW Milwaukee, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 faced off in early January, the total was set at 155, they totaled 151 (IPFW won 78-73) yet this total is set higher despite the first game going Under. That’s because taking a closer look at the first meeting reveals that game should have go Over the total. First of all, these 2 play fast (2 of the top 3 in tempo in the Horizon) and they had 78 possessions in the first meeting. Plenty of opportunities for scoring in that game and this one should play out in a similar manner. Both teams shot well below their season averages and their offensive efficiency fell way under their season averages. They combined to barely shoot 40% (they shoot 48% and 47% on the year) and they made only 30% of their 3’s combined. UWM averages 1.11 PPP in Horizon League play and in that one they averaged 0.94 PPP. IPFW averages 1.14 PPP in conference play and put up 1.00 in that game. Despite all that, that game still got into the 150’s. We look for Sunday’s offensive numbers to get back to the norm which should push this game into the 160’s. The last 2 meetings in Milwaukee each of the last 2 seasons totaled 184 and 190. Take the Over in this one

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 128 Points – West Virginia vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Two of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12 face off here and what should be a low scoring game. These are the 2 lowest scoring teams in Big 12 games with WVU averaging 60.7 PPG and Cincy putting up 61 PPG. They also rank in the bottom 3 in the league in both FG% and 3 point FG%. Neither get to the FT line very often (280th and 359th in percentage of points from the stripe) and we won’t see many 2nd chances as they are both very poor offensive rebounding teams (15th and 16th in league play). The strength of both teams is absolutely on the defensive end. They both rank inside the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Both defend the arc well and this should be a slow paced game with WVU ranking 331st in adjusted tempo while Cincy ranks 290th. This smells like a first team to 60 wins type game. Take the Under.

#809/810 ASA PLAY ON Over 148.5 Points – Cleveland State vs IPFW, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The 2 most efficient offenses in the Horizon League are facing off here in what we expect to be a high scoring game. IPFW ranks #1 in most of the key offensive stats in league play including scoring, FG%, 3 point FG%, and offensive efficiency. CSU ranks in the top 3 in all of those categories. IPFW is a poor defensive team ranking outside the top 270 nationally defensive efficiency and PPG allowed. Cleveland State has much better numbers on the defensive end, however they’ve faced the weakest schedule thus far in Horizon League play and only 3 of their 11 conference opponents currently rank in the top 5 in scoring. So their defensive numbers are a bit misleading in our opinion. IPFW has played 11 league games and 9 of those have reached at least 150 total points. Their games in Horizon League play average 162 total points. They are also one of the fastest paced teams in the country and #1 in adjusted tempo in the conference. In CSU’s other games vs higher tempo teams in the Horizon (Youngstown State, Robert Morris, and Milwaukee) they totaled 152, 149, and 146 total points and none of those teams are as good offensive as IPFW. The Matadors rank 59th nationally in offensive efficiency and those teams mentioned above rank 143rd or lower with 2 ranking outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency. This one goes Over the Total.

#691/692 ASA PLAY ON Under 123.5 Points – Houston vs West Virginia, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Houston won the game 74-50 totaling 124 points. In that game the Cougars put up 1.30 PPP which is well above their 1.22 PP average on the season and ranks as their 2nd best offensive effort (efficiency) in Big 12 play. They also shot 42% from deep in that game facing a WVU defense that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency. It will be very tough for Houston to duplicate that offensive effort. On the other side, the Mountaineers also shot over 40% from beyond the arc (they average 33%) and averaged 1.00 PPP vs a Houston defense that allowed 0.87 PPP on the season. While 1.00 PPP may not sound all that impressive, WVU has played 3 games since facing the Cougars and haven’t reached that mark in any of them (vs ISU, KSU, and ASU). We highly doubt they hit that number tonight. Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in efficiency with Houston ranking #2. Both teams are very slow paced ranking 324th and 360th in adjusted tempo and there were only 54 possessions in the first meeting. There were only total FT attempts in the first meeting and we look for a similar situation here as neither team gets to the line very often (both outside the top 315 in percentage of points from the FT line). If you combine their over/under records this season, they are 23-14-1 to the Under. This one stays very low scoring.

#839/840 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points – Michigan State vs Northwestern, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Both of these teams have highly efficient defenses with MSU ranking 10th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.92 PPP and Northwestern ranks 27th giving up 0.96 PPP. Both allow just 66 PPG on the season and NW is far better defensively at home allowing 61 PPG compared to 72 PPG on the road. The Cats have played 1 Big 10 home game this season vs the highly efficient Illinois offense (27th in offensive efficiency) and that game was tied 56-56 at the end of regulation, went to OT and they still only got to 137 total points. Illinois has very similar efficiency numbers, offense & defense, to Michigan State today’s opponents. The Spartans defense has allowed 62 points or fewer in 3 of their 4 Big 10 games this season. NW is a very slow paced team and we expect them to control the tempo at home on Sunday. They do not want to get into a shootout with Michigan State. Offensively, neither team shoots many 3’s (both outside the top 320 in percentage of points scored from deep) and neither is great at hitting them when they do shoot them (MSU 339th in 3 point FG% & NW 215th). This game will mainly be played inside the arc which always helps the Under. Lastly, both are very good defensive rebounding teams which should limit extra opportunities for each. Only 3 of the last 13 meetings between these 2 Big 10 rivals have topped 140 total points and with the current total (as of Saturday) sitting in the high 130’s, we like the Under.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 143 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Tennessee, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tennessee is #1 nationally in eFG% defense and #2 in defensive efficiency. They are allowing just 55 PPG this season and they really make teams work on the offensive end allowing a shot attempt every 19 seconds (4th in the country). They have held a number of high level offenses to low point totals this year including limiting Baylor (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 62 points, Illinois (37th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 64 points, Louisville (55th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 55 points, and Miami FL (38th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 62 points. The Vols have held almost half their opponents (5) to less than 60 points and limited 2 of their opponents to less than 40 points. MTSU is not a good 3 point shooting team (31%) and they don’t attempt many from deep. They should be drastically limited from beyond the arc here vs a Tennessee defense that ranks #1 nationally in guarding the arc allowing only 24%. On the other end of the court, the Blue Raiders have done a great job defensively limiting opponents to just 5 made 3 pointers per game and holding them to 27% from deep (5th nationally). The majority of points in this game should come from inside the arc which always helps the Under. We wouldn’t be surprised if MTSU fails to top 55 points in this game which would mean Tennessee would need to get to almost 90 for this one to go Over. 6 of Tennessee’s last 7 games have failed to top 141 points and we think this one sticks in the mid to upper 130’s. Under is our play here.

#665/666 ASA PLAY ON Under 129 Points – Houston vs San Diego State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - In this match up in Las Vegas both defenses are the strengths of each team.  Houston and SDSU both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 30 in eFG% allowed.  Houston allows just 57 PPG and the Aztecs give up only 63 PPG.  Houston’s numbers could be much better as they’ve faced 2 of the top 3 offensive efficiency teams in the nation (Bama & Auburn) yet they still only allow 36% shooting on the season and just 30% from deep.  If you subtract their games vs 2 of the top offenses in the nation, Houston is allowing only 45 PPG.  Facing a San Diego State offense that ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency and eFG%, those fantastic defensive numbers for Houston should continue.  SDSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading as well as they faced Gonzaga this season who ranks 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency.  Take out their game vs the Zags and the Aztecs are allowing only 59 PPG this season.  Not a fluke as these programs have been great defensively ranking in the top 11 last year in defensive efficiency.  Houston has an average rank of 9th in defensive efficiency over the last 5 years and SDSU also has an average rank of 9th in defensive efficiency over the last 5 years.  Both teams are slow paced (355th and 284th in adjusted tempo) so we don’t expect many possessions in this game.  Under is the call.

#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – IPFW vs Penn State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Both teams in this match up love to play fast so we expect a lot of possessions in this game. Penn State ranks 12th nationally in adjusted tempo and IPFW ranks 88th. Can these offenses take advantage of a high possession game? Yes. Both are solid shooting teams with PSU hitting over 51% of their shots on the season and IPFW hitting 49%. They both are in the top 100 in 3 point FG% and they each average 10 made 3 pointers which puts them in the top 75. The Nittany Lions are putting up 1.14 points per possession which is in the top 50 and the Mastodons are averaging 1.09 PPP which is in the top 100. PSU has hit at least 86 points in every game this season and they’ve topped 100 twice. Their 86 points output over the weekend vs Va Tech was impressive as the Hokies have a solid defense and they were allowing just 62 PPG entering their game vs Penn State. PSU ranks 10th in the nation averaging 97 PPG. The IPFW offense has reached at least 90 points in 3 of their games this season and they are averaging 87 PPG on the season (48th nationally). When these teams get to the FT line they’ve been very successful as well with IPFW hitting 82% from the stripe and PSU 73%. Both defenses have solid numbers, however they have each played a number of poor offensive teams this season with only 1 of their 8 combined opponents ranking in the top 100 in offensive efficiency. At least 1 team has reached 90 points in 6 of their 8 combined games this season. The projected score of this one based on the spread in PSU 86, IPFW 72. Our numbers have both of those teams topping their projected total. Over is the call here.

#675/676 ASA PLAY ON Under – Purdue vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We anticipate this to be a slower paced game with limited possessions which will limit scoring. UConn ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue is outside the top 200. UConn’s games in the tourney have averaged 65 possessions per game and in their last 2 games vs 2 of the fastest paced teams in the country, Illinois & Bama, they had 69 and 63 possessions respectively. Purdue’s game vs NC State on Saturday had only 64 possessions and the Boilers have averaged 65 possessions per game in their 5 NCAA tourney tilts. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level right now with only 1 of their 10 combined NCAA tourney opponents reaching 70 points. That was UConn’s game on Saturday vs Alabama who came in averaging 90 PPG and only scored 72 despite shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Purdue is allowing just 60 PPG in the Big Dance while the Huskies are allowing just 57 PPG. Purdue’s games in the tourney are 4-1 to the Under and averaging 140 total points and that includes a game they scored 106 by themselves vs Utah State. Take out that one outlier and their games are averaging 131 total points. UConn is 5-0 to the Under in the tourney with their games averaging 139 total points and that includes 2 games vs Bama & Illinois, two of the top offensive teams in the nation who are both very fast paced. Only 3 of the last 12 National Championship games have topped 145 total points. Last year’s National Championship game totaled 135 points (this UConn team vs San Diego State) and we project a similar total on Monday. Defense and slow pace on Monday lead to an Under.

#673/674 ASA PLAY ON Under 146.5 Points – NC State vs Purdue, Saturday 6:05 PM ET - Tough shooting venue here in Arizona (State Farm Stadium home of the AZ Cardinals) with a huge indoor football stadium hosting the Final 4. Neither team is really fast paced with NC State ranking 156th in possessions per game and Purdue 184th . Both have slowed the pace even more in the tourney with none of NC State’s 4 games getting to 70 possessions (including an OT game vs Oakland) while Purdue’s NCAA games have averaged 65 possessions per game. Both defenses are playing at a high level right now with neither allowing 70 points (in regulation) in their 8 combined NCAA tournament games. Purdue’s defense has been really solid all season long ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and NC State’s defense has really played well down the stretch ranking 37th nationally in efficiency since the start of the ACC tourney (8 game sample). In the Dance NC State has 67, 66, 58 and 64 points and that includes 3 opponents who rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency (Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech). On the other end we think the Wolfpack will have problems scoring inside vs Purdue and Zach Edey who will make it much more difficult for DJ Burns, who had 29 points vs Duke, to score inside. That means NCSU will have to be lights out from beyond the arc which is not their strength (143rd in 3 point FG%). In their last 2 games Purdue held Tennessee (28th in offensive efficiency) to 66 points and Gonzaga (5th in offensive efficiency) to 68 points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 3 of their 4 NCAA tournament games and another is on the way Saturday. Under is our play.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Indiana State vs Seton Hall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Two peaking offenses should run this game into the 160’s on Thursday night. Seton Hall has scored 91 and 84 points in their last 2 games vs UNLV and UGA who both rank higher than Indiana State in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have averaged at least 1.14 PPP in each of their last 3 games and in their 4 NIT games they’ve shot 48% overall and 39% from beyond the arc. And every defense they’ve faced in the NIT to this point is better than ISU’s defense efficiency wise. The Hall will put up points in this game. We think the Sycamores will as well. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 11th in 3 point FG%, and 3rd in 2 point FG%. In their 4 NIT games they’ve gotten to 100 points twice and they are averaging 90.5 PPG in those 4 games. While Seton Hall’s defense is solid (35th in defensive efficiency), State just put up 100 on Utah (top 50 defense) and 85 on Cincinnati (top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency). Indiana State likes to play fast on offense (37th nationally in adjusted tempo) and while Seton Hall’s year long numbers aren’t overly fast, they have decided to up the tempo in the NIT. In fact, since the start of the NIT tourney, the Hall ranks 45th nationally in tempo. We expect plenty of offensive possessions in this one. We don’t expect many “lost” points at the FT line in this one either with ISU hitting 80% of their freebies on the year and Seton Hall making 78%. The players have raved about the shooting lines and bouncy floor at Hinkle Field House saying it’s definitely a shooter’s gym. If the semi finals were any indication (190 total points and 151 total points) they were correct. Over is the call.

#651/652 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Illinois vs UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We have the 2 most efficient offenses in college basketball facing off here and we look for a high scoring game. Connecticut ranks #1 in adjusted efficiency (1.27 PPP) and Illinois ranks #2 (1.26 PPP) and they’ve been even better the 2nd half of the season with both averaging 1.32 PPP since mid February (#1 and #2 nationally in that time period as well). Both average over 80 PPG and both are very balanced scoring from inside and outside so both are tough to guard. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 21 games. The Huskies have scored at least 80 points in 8 of their last 14 games and they are facing an Illinois defense that would rank as the 3rd worst defense in the Big East. Both teams protect the ball very well which will limit wasted possessions and both are among the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation which should lead to a number of extra possessions. We were on the Illinois vs Iowa State over 147 on Thursday night. That was an ISU defense that was ranked #1 nationally in efficiency and isn’t nearly as good offensively as this UConn team. They finished with 141 points (72-69 Illinois win) but did so shooting a combined 40% overall and missing 18 combined FTs! That game easily could have been in the 150’s. UConn just scored 82 points on a slow paced San Diego State team that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. Now they face an Illinois team that is fast paced and is barely inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The Huskies will score here and while they’ve been very good defensively, we think Illinois puts up plenty of points as well as they’ve done on pretty much everyone. There are 4 defenses in the Big 10 ranked inside the top 20 nationally in efficiency (MSU, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue) and Illinois averaged 77 PPG in those 8 contests. Both teams fully capable of reach 80+ points here and we’ll grab the Over.

#639/640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Gonzaga vs Purdue, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - We have two of the top offenses in the nation facing off here with Purdue ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and Gonzaga ranking 7th. As you might expect they are also 2 of the top shooting teams in the country both ranking in the top 15 and they average 85 PPG (Gonzaga) and 64 PPG on the season. This should be a fairly high possession game as the Zags like to play fast (top 90 in adjusted tempo) and Purdue, while not ranked quite as high in that metric, is fine with playing up tempo. When these 2 met back in November, Purdue won the game 73-63, but there were 73 possessions in that game so they had their chances. Just a poor shooting night for Gonzaga in general at 38% which is way below their season average of 52% which is #2 in the nation. The combined 3 point percentage in that game was also a very poor 20% (10 of 49 overall) from 2 top shooting teams (Purdue is #1 on the nation in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs offense is humming to say the least. Since mid February they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They’ve scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games and 2 of the games they did not were vs St Mary’s a top 5 defense that plays at one of the slowest rates in the country. Purdue is nearly impossible to defend with Edey controlling the middle and kicking out for 3’s if doubled and the Boilers are the top 3 point shooting team in the nation hitting almost 41%. The Zags strength is not on the defensive end ranking outside the top 40 in efficiency and even worst outside the top 170 defending the arc. This will be a keep up game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and their opponents will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Over is the call.

#631/632 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145.5 Points – Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Illinois just continues to put big points on the board no matter who they play. After scoring 85 in the round of 32 vs Duquesne (slow paced team with top 30 defense) the Illini have now put up at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games. We realize ISU has a high level defense (24th nationally in FG% allowed) but we like Illinois to still be successful offensively. Against the best defensive teams in the Big 10 the Illini offense was still high level scoring 80 on Michigan State (11th nationally in defensive efficiency), 86 on Rutgers (4th in defensive efficiency), and 85 on Maryland (12th in defensive efficiency). Illinois ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.26 PPP) and we have our doubts that ISU can slow them down. This is going to be a game that the Cyclones have to put points on the board to keep up. We think they will. As much is made about their defensive prowess, let’s remember Iowa State averages 75 PPG and they are top 50 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency. They will do well on that end of the court vs an Illinois defense that simply isn’t very good. They rank 92nd nationally in defensive efficiency (2nd worst defense remaining) and since mid February this defense is rated just 188th in efficiency. We were on ISU vs Washington State Under in the round of 32 which was a winner but that was a Wazzou team that plays great defense and slows the pace. Illinois likes to play fast and Iowa State is much faster paced this season (206th) than last season (328th) so they are not necessarily a “slow” team anymore. Both offenses will have success here and we’ll take the Over on Thursday night.

#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points – VCU vs South Florida, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set in the high 130’s so some solid value on the Under here. Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses in this one. VCU and USF have defenses that rank in the top 45 in eFG% and both are in the top 40 defending the arc which is key here. Both offenses rely heavily on the 3 point shot with each ranking outside the top 350 in percentage of points from inside the arc. That’s a tough spot for the offenses facing formidable 3 point defenses and we anticipate tired legs which affects jump shooting teams more than anything. VCU is playing their 6th game in 12 days (all away from home) and USF if playing their 4th game in 10 days. We wouldn’t look for either team to light it up from deep in this game. Both are poor offensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points should be minimal. VCU is a very slow paced team and they get their tempo for the most part. Especially down the stretch where they faced 2 fast paced teams in the A10 tourney (UMass & St Joes) and those 2 games ended with only 61 and 63 offensive possessions. The Rams have played 7 straight games where the total ended 140 or less and we look for another here. We like the Under in this NIT battle.

#839/840 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 168.5 Points – Alabama vs Grand Canyon, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with Bama ranking 4th nationally in possessions per game and Grand Canyon ranking 114th. The Antelopes are actually very similar offensively (tempo, PPP, eFG%) to Bama’s first round opponent College of Charleston and we know how that one turned out (Bama 109 to 96 final score). We were impressed with Grand Canyon’s offense in their NCAA opener vs St Mary’s where they put up 75 points on the Gaels who are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and a top 5 defense efficiency wise. Now they face a fast paced team that struggles defensively with the Crimson Tide ranking 117th in defensive efficiency, 141st in eFG% allowed, and 353rd in scoring defense giving up 82 PPG. We look for GC to have success on offense tonight. On the other end, Bama is just an offensive juggernaut. They rank 3rd nationally in efficiency, 5th in FG’s made per game, 3rd in 3 pointers made per game and #1 nationally in scoring putting up 91 PPG. With a great offense and suspect defense, Bama’s games have averaged 172 total points this season. Here’s a crazy stat…In Alabama’s last 10 games, at least 1 team (Bama or their opponent) has scored 100+ points and the 2 prior to that one of the teams scored at least 99 points. Thus in 9 of their last 12 games, someone has scored at least 99 points. These 2 have combined to go 43-22-1 to the Over this season. This is a high total for a reason. Over is the play.

#799/800 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Washington State vs Iowa State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET - Two of the very best defenses in the nation squaring off in this game. Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Wazzou ranks 22nd. ISU allows just 61 PPG and that was playing in a Big 12 conference with 5 teams ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Washington State gives up 66 PPG and they just allowed 61 points to a Drake offense that was rolling coming into the game averaging 84 PPG over their previous 11 games entering last night. The Cougars held a very potent Colorado offense (25th in offensive efficiency) to 58 points in the Pac 12 tourney the their other conference tourney game they limited fast paced Stanford to 62 points. The best offense by far in the Pac 12 was Arizona (88PPG – 3rd most nationally) and in their 2 games vs the Cats they held them 15 points below their season average (74 & 73 points in 2 games vs WSU). This should be a very slow paced game as well with Washington State ranking 312th in adjusted tempo and ISU is middle of the pack in that stat but can play either way, fast or slow. The Cyclones have stepped it up defensively late in the year holding their last 9 opponents to 65 points or less. In the Big 12 tourney they held KSU to 57 points, Baylor (one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation & scored 92 in their NCAA opening game) to 62 points and then stopped Houston in their tracks with just 41 points. Neither offense shoots many 3’s both ranking outside the top 290 in percentage of points from deep, so this one will mainly be played inside the arc. With the winner heading to the Sweet 16, both teams lean on their strength here which is defense. Under is the call.

#769/770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – Colorado vs Florida, Friday at 4 PM ET - This one is going to be a track meet. The Gators rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 10th nationally in offensive possessions per game. While the Buffs aren’t as fast, they aren’t slow either. They are 143rd in possessions per game and in the top 100 in average possession length on offense so they get shots off fairly quickly. Offense is the strength of both teams with Florida ranking 15th in offensive efficiency and Colorado coming in at 27th. They also rank 7th (Florida at 85 PPG) and 38th (Colorado at 79 PPG) in scoring. When they do miss shots, both the Gators and Buffs are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the country so look for a number of 2nd chances on both ends. They both get to the FT line at a decent rate so we should see plenty of FT attempts as well. Neither defense is great a limiting opponents scoring with Florida giving up 78 PPG (323rd nationally) and Colorado allowing 71 PPG (187th). They also both rank outside the top 155 in opponent FG%. The Gators and their opponents have reached at least 155 points in 12 of their last 16 games. The team in the Pac 12 that is most similar to Florida in regards to pace is Arizona. They are almost identical. They are also very close offensive efficiency wise. In their 2 games vs Zona, the Buffs gave up 99 & 97 points and the 2 teams combined for 147 points and 178 points. In their first meeting Arizona did their job offensively but CU scored only 50 points on a terrible 0.69 PPP. The Buffs were without 2 of their best players in that game but when at full strength in the 2nd game the points were abundant. These teams have combined for a 42-27-1 to the Over this year and we project both to get into the 80’s.

#853/854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134 Points – Baylor vs Iowa State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This total is much too low according to our power ratings. We have this total set at 140 so as of this writing we’re getting 6 full points of value on the Over. These teams met once this season and that total was set at 142 and while they went Under that number, they still totaled 138 points in that game. The 2 teams combined to shoot just 42% in that game and we expect better shooting numbers tonight. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in the nation averaging 81 PPG along with ranking 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 5th in 3 point percentage hitting 40% of their triples on the season. They are facing an ISU defense that is very good but they aren’t great defending the arc ranking 76th nationally. In their only meeting, the Bears hit 12 triples and we’d expect another solid effort from deep from this outstanding offense. The Bears also get to the FT line more than anyone in the Big 12 and ISU fouls a lot. On the other side, ISU averages 71 PPG on the season and while they aren’t as dynamic offensively as Baylor, they do rank in the top 70 nationally in efficiency. They’ll also be facing a Baylor defense that simply isn’t very good this year. They allow over 70 PPG and rank 12th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point FG% allowed. These teams both played low scoring games yesterday which is keeping this total low. ISU faced Kansas State who is much worse offensively than Baylor (KSU 12th in offensive efficiency in the Big 12) and much better defensively than the Bears (KSU 4th in defensive efficiency) yet the total in that game was 135 which is higher than this number? ISU & KSU totaled 133 points in that game with the Cyclones scoring 76 points vs a really good defense despite making only 1 of 14 three point shots. Baylor beat Cincinnati 68-56 with the teams combining to barely shoot 40% and just 24% from deep. We really like the value with this low total and our play is Over.

#809/810 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Wisconsin vs Northwestern, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is light by about 3 points according to our power ratings so we’ll grab the value on the Over. While both teams are slow paced, the offenses on each side are much better than the defenses. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency and after their home finale vs Minnesota in which the Wildcats put up 90 points, head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” The Cats are averaging 76 PPG in league playing ranking 4th in the Big 10. Wisconsin is average 75 PPG in conference play ranking 7th. Wisconsin & NW have had very solid defensive teams in the recent past but that really hasn’t been the case this season with both ranking outside the top 230 nationally in eFG% allowed. They are both allowing more than 72 PPG in conference play after they both allowed less than 67 PPG in league play last season. NW’s offense thrives on the 3 point shot with almost 35% of their points in conference play coming from deep (2nd most) and they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from deep. The Badgers found their offensive rhythm here yesterday putting up 89 points Maryland who came into that game #1 in defensive efficiency in Big 10 play. While we don’t expect UW to shoot as well as they did yesterday, they should still find plenty of success vs a NW defense that ranks 11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. Northwestern’s conference games this year have averaged 149 total points and Wisconsin’s have averaged 147 total points. We like this game to get into the 140’s so Over is the play.

#739/740 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points – Ohio State vs Iowa, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - OSU has turned the corner and they are playing great basketball since they fired their head coach Holtmann. Since firing Holtmann the Buckeyes have won 5 of 6 and they’ve gotten in done in the defensive end. The game after Holtmann was let go they held the Big 10s top scoring team, Purdue, to just 69 points (Boilers average 84 PPG). OSU has since held their last 4 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP and they’ve held those 4 opponents to less than 60 PPG. The Bucks offense isn’t great ranking in the lower half of the Big 10 in scoring, FG% and 3 point FG% so interim coach Diebler has really stressed working on the defensive end and it’s paid off. Iowa likes to play up tempo but you can bet OSU will slow this game down. In their only meeting this season in Iowa City, the Buckeyes lost a close one 79-77 and there were only 65 possessions in that game. Both teams eclipsed their season offensive efficiency averages in that game with Iowa averaging 1.22 PPP (they average 1.12 in Big 10 play) and OSU averaging 1.18 PPG in that game (they average 1.08 in conference play). Even with those numbers the game only reach 156 total points. Since mid February, both of these defenses have improved dramatically with OSU ranking 15th nationally in PPP allowed (61st overall on the season) and Iowa ranking 79th (147th overall on the season). The Hawks offensive numbers drop off dramatically on the road where they average 11 PPG fewer than at home and OSU puts up 5 PPG fewer on the road compared to at home. This is an Under play on Thursday.

#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - These are the #1 and #2 teams in the Big 10 in regards to defensive efficiency. They both rank in the top 12 nationally in that statistic with both allowing less than 0.95 adjusted PPP. Both defenses also make opposing offenses really work for shots, opponents average a shot every 18 seconds, putting them both in the top 40 in that category. While we have the 2 best defensive teams in the Big 10, we also have the 2 worst offensive teams squaring off in this one. They rank 13th and 14th in conference scoring and both rank outside the top 325 in FG%. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc in this one as Rutgers ranks 346th nationally making just 29% of their triples and the Terps rank 352nd making only 28%. In their 2 meetings this season they combined to make only 13 combined 3’s and shot just 21% combined from deep. These teams met twice this season and totaled 109 points both times. Both games were low possessions games (60 & 65) and we expect the same tempo in this one. Rutgers & Maryland have combined to play 62 games this season with 40 of those going Under the total. They’ve also gone Under their last 6 meetings and not one of those 6 games reached 130 points. Playing in an unfamiliar NBA Arena (Target Center in Minneapolis) we would suggest their shooting numbers may end up worse than they normally are. Under is the play.

#645/646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points – Virginia Tech vs Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - These teams met twice this season and totaled 158 and 151 points in those 2 games so we’re looking for this one to get into the 150’s again at worst. FSU is the fastest paced team in the ACC and they land in the top 30 nationally in adjusted tempo. VT is middle of the pack in tempo both in the ACC and nationally so they are not a slow paced team. The Hokies played 6 ACC games vs teams ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and 4 of those games reached the 150’s or higher. The only 2 that did not were their 2 games vs Louisville (totaled 143 & 144) and in those games the Cards, who rank 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency & eFG%, didn’t do their part offensively not hitting 70 in either game. We don’t anticipate that being a problem for FSU who ranks 4th in the ACC averaging 77 PPG in league play. Va Tech’s offense ranks #1 I the conference in eFG% and since February 1st the rank 19th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Hokies lead the ACC in FG% as well and FSU is 4th in that category. Both offenses are better than the opposing defenses as FSU & VT rank 12th and 13th in eFG% allowed in ACC play and 9th and 13th in PPG allowed. Because both have solid offenses and shaky defenses, it wasn’t surprising to see these 2 combine to hit 47% of their shots in the first 2 meetings. We expect similar shooting results here. 4 of the last 5 in this series have gone Over the total and we look for another high scoring game on Wednesday.

#871/872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Santa Clara vs St Mary’s, Monday at 9 PM ET - These teams played 2 very different games when they faced off this season with one totaling 121 points and the other 159 points. The one thing that was consistent in both match ups was both were low possession games (58 & 65 possessions). That’s how St Mary’s plays ranking 358th in adjusted tempo and 350th in possessions per game. Santa Clara prefers to play fast but based on the possession numbers of their 2 meetings, STM will again control this tempo and make it a slow game. In their high scoring game that reached 159 points, the 2 teams combined for a whopping 44 made FT’s which was an aberration as both rank outside the top 200 (St Mary’s outside the top 300) in percentage of points from the FT line. Neither teams gets there very often as they combined to average 36 FT attempts per game yet in that contest they attempted 61. Much of the scoring was late with SC fouling to try and catch up. In fact, with under 2:00 minutes remaining the teams had scored 129 total points and put up a ridiculous 30 points from that point on. The other meeting that totaled 121 points was more indicative of how we think this game will play out. STM’s defense is one of the best in the country. They rank #1 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed in WCC play. They are allowing just 58 PPG on WCC games which is by far the best in the league. SC’s offense struggled to shoot well vs STM’s this season hitting just 40% of their shots (both games combined) and their offense has regressed drastically over the last month. For the season Santa Clara ranks 103rd in eFG% (5th in the WCC) but since February 1st they rank 263rd in that category. Defensively they’ve gotten much better ranking 36th in eFG% allowed and 63rd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. That’s not a huge surprise as SC head coach Herb Sendek (former HC at NC State & Arizona State) has always been defensive minded. Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this slow paced game so we’ll grab the Under.

#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 171 Points – Illinois vs Iowa, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These teams met at the end of February in Illinois and put up 180 points with the Illini winning 95-85. It was an up tempo game as to be expected with 74 possessions. These teams rank #2 and #3 in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo and both are in the top 70 nationally in that statistic. Both teams shot well in that game but not fantastic each hitting right around their average. They combined to hit 48% of their shots overall and 35% of their triples which again is near their season averages. Both made 20+ FT’s which isn’t a surprise as Iowa hits 80% of their freebies in league play and Illinois makes 77%. Both offenses rank in the top 10 nationally in efficiency and more recently, since February 1st, the Illini are #1 nationally in offensive efficiency and Iowa is 8th. On the other end of the court both defenses rank outside the top 100 and they have been worse recently, again since February 1st, ranking 227th and 236th in defensive efficiency. In conference play, these are 2 of the worst in the Big 10 with Iowa ranking 13th in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% allowed while Illinois ranks 9th in defensive efficiency and dead last in 3 point FG% allowed. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games averaging 89 PPG during that 10 game stretch. At home, the Hawkeyes are averaging 90 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 80 points in all but 3 of their 16 home games this year. These teams are combined 41-19 to the Over this season and we anticipate another high scoring game in Iowa City on Sunday.

#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 162 Points – Memphis vs Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These teams met 2 weeks ago and Memphis won that game 78-74. The total in that game was set at 160 and it went Under yet now the total on Saturday is set higher at 162 (opener). That was a fast paced game with 70 possessions and we expect a similar game here as both like to play up tempo, especially Memphis who ranks 18th in adjusted tempo. Neither team shot well in that game with both hitting 44% of their shots (which is below both of their season averages) and from beyond the arc it was a brutal effort as they combined to make only 12 of their 55 attempts for 22%. That was well below their season averages of 35% (Memphis) and 36% (FAU). They each made only 11 FT’s in the game which was low as both rank in the top 100 in FT’s made per game at 17 (FAU) and 15 (Memphis). Both dominated the offensive glass in that game (both rebounded 36% of their misses leading to 2nd chances and we expect that to remain the same as neither team is very good on the defensive glass (both outside the top 200). We have the #1 & #2 most efficient offenses in the AAC facing off here in a game and both average 83 PPG on the season. We expect both teams to reach the 80’s in this one and we’ll call for the Over to hit early on Saturday.

#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Chattanooga vs Furman, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These are the 2nd and 3rd scoring teams in the SoCon both averaging right about 80 PPG on the season. Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency so the strength is with the offense on both sides. Both have preferred a faster pace ranking 3rd in 4th in SoCon in tempo so we should have plenty of possessions. Neither team creates turnovers at a high rate so we should see many wasted trips on offense. Chattanooga’s offense is rolling scoring at least 79 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Furman was missing some key players early in the conference schedule including leading scorer Foster but he’s now been back for 9 games and the offense has been very good at home averaging 82 PPG on 48% shooting. When they met back in January the total was set at 155.5 and they didn’t come close with Chattanooga winning 73-58. Furman played that game without Foster and they combined to shoot only 37% from the field including a terrible 11 of 55 (20%) from beyond the arc. Neither team averaged 1.00 PPP in that game which is WAY below their averages of 1.16 PPP (UTC) and 1.08 PPP (Furman) in conference play. Both offenses play much better here and this one goes Over the Total.

#697/698 ASA PLAY ON Under 146 Points – Iowa vs Maryland, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Iowa likes to play up tempo but Maryland will want to slow this game down (304th in tempo) and limit Iowa’s offensive possessions. We feel they’ll get the pace they want at home. Iowa’s offensive numbers are very solid but they are a completely differently team on the road on that end of the court. The Hawkeyes average 13 fewer PPG on the road this season and shoot just 45% compared to almost 50% at home. We highly doubt Iowa reaches their offensive averages on the road here vs a Maryland defense that ranks #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and scoring defense. They also make offenses work very hard to get a shot off with the Terps allowing a shot every 18.2 seconds which is in the top 25 nationally. Offensively Maryland struggles so they need to win slow paced, low scoring games. They rank dead last in the Big 10 in scoring (conference games), 13th in offensive efficiency, and 13th in eFG%. The Terps games in conference play have averaged just 130 total points and that includes 2 OT games. If we subtract OT games, Maryland has not topped 142 total points in any conference game this season. When these 2 met in Iowa, where Hawks games average 172 total points, they put up just 136 (Maryland 69-67 win).

#659/660 ASA PLAY ON Over 163 Points – VMI vs Furman, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and the total was set at 166 and they scored 160 points. We’re getting this one a full 3 points lower than the first meeting (as of the opener which was 163) and we like the value on the Over. In the first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot 43.7% from the field (nothing great) and the combined to make only 17 FT’s in the game and they still reached 160 points. Furman put up 100 points in that game (100-60 final score) which may seem like an anomaly but that is not the case when facing this VMI defense. In fact, the Cadets have played 12 conference games this season and allowed at least 100 points in nearly half of those games (5)! On the season VMI is allowing 94 PPG in SoCon play. They rank outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed and they play at the 2nd fastest pace in the nation per KenPom. Needless to say we expect Furman, who averages over 80 PPG on the season, to possibly reach triple digits again. VMI’s offense doesn’t have good shooting numbers, however because they play so fast they average over 70 PPG on the season. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 7 of their 12 SoCon games this season. VMI is also facing a Furman defense that isn’t great ranking 321st in FG% allowed, 350th in FG made per game, and 331st in FG attempted per game. The Paladins also play very fast 59th in tempo per KenPom. We should have tons of offensive possessions in this game and the offenses should rule the day. Over is the play.

#773/774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – Georgia Tech vs Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Cards offense has been flat out really good over their last few games. They put up 101 points at home last weekend vs FSU and then followed that up with 92 points @ Syracuse on Wednesday. They averaged 1.25 and 1.17 PPP in those 2 games. While their offense seems to absolutely be peaking, the Cards defense stinks. They’ve allowed 90+ points in each of their last 2 games and they’ve given up at least 80 points in 7 of their 12 ACC games. They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and PPG allowed (81 PPG) in league games. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t any better. They rank 13th (out of 14) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (80 PPG). The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 80 points in every ACC road game this season. So we have the 2 worst defenses in the conference going head to head here. We’re also going to have a faster paced game with Louisville really focusing on up tempo as of late and for the season they rank 71st in tempo. Tech doesn’t mind playing fast and their offense ranks 6th in the conference in eFG% and 3 point FG%. They should do some damage vs this poor Card defense. Tech’s road games in conference play have totaled 158, 158, 183, 163, and 153 points. Louisville’s home games in league play have totaled 193, 121 (vs Virginia great defense, slow pace), 152, 171, and 153 points. The opener of 151 is too low for these teams. We’ll go Over the total.

#693/694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 163 Points – Alabama vs Auburn, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met back in late January with the total set at 161 points they stayed Under hitting 154. Now, despite that game going Under the total, tonight’s total opened 2 points higher than where the total in January closed. Interesting. The oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are. In that first game both teams played well below their offensive averages for the season. Bama hit just 38% of their shots while Auburn hit just under 41% and they were a combined 54 for 135 for just 40%. From beyond the arc they combined to make only 16 of 55 attempts for 29%. When we look at their points per possession numbers, Bama was 1.05 PPP and Auburn was 1.00 PPP. Even with those poor offensive numbers, these 2 still hit 154 total points! Comparing those PPP numbers, For the season both rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency (PPP) with the Crimson Tide averaging 1.26 and Auburn 1.19. So as you can see, neither team was anywhere close to what they average for the year. Bama leads the nation in scoring averaging 90 PPG and Auburn is in the top 25 at 83 PPG. Both teams play very fast so we expect lots of possessions. Both defenses foul a lot as well with each ranking in the top 90 in opponents percentage of points at the FT line and when they get there, Bama hits 79% and Auburn makes 76%. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games this season and the Tigers have also hit at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games. We look for both teams to hit at least 80 in this one so we like the Over on Wednesday night.

#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two of the best defensive teams in the nation squaring off here should lead to very low scoring game. They both rank in the top 6 nationally in defensive efficiency and when we narrow it down to Big 10 games only, Maryland is #1 in that category and Rutgers is #2. They both make opposing offense work to get decent shots with the average offensive possession vs these defenses last 18.2 seconds. That ranks both in the top 30 nationally. They both create lots of turnovers (each ranked in top 50) which should lead to a number of empty possessions. Shooting will be a problem in this one. These are the 2 worst shooting teams in the conference in Big 10 play with each making less than 40% of their shots. They are also poor 3 point shooting teams ranking 13th and 14th in the conference in 3 point FG% and neither shoots very many from deep. On top of all that, the Scarlet Knights and Terps are also the 2 lowest scoring teams in the conference, both in league games and overall. These 2 Big 10 rivals have faced each other 4 times since January of 2021 and none of those games have topped 128 total points so they are used to playing low scoring grinders. They played once last season and tallied 114 total points. The Terps are a very slow paced team and should get the tempo at home which will limit possessions for both teams. Under is the play.

#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call.

#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night.

#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under.

#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under.

#863/864 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 158.5 Points – Furman vs Arkansas, Monday at 8 PM ET - In this one we have 2 of the faster paced teams in the country so we’ll get plenty of offensive possessions. The Razors are 35th in possession per game at 76.4 and Furman is 58th averaging 75.5. Both offenses are averaging over 80 PPG on the season and each defense allows north of 75 PPG. Arkansas has played 5 home games and scored at least 80 in 4 of those games for an average of 84 PPG. They should have plenty of success here vs a Furman defense that ranks 227th in defensive efficiency and 258th in eFG% defense. The Paladins have played 5 games away from home this season (road + neutral games) and they’ve given up at least 78 points in 4 of those games for an average of 82 PPG. Furman can put up points as we discussed and they are very good shooting team hitting nearly 49% of their shots on the season (36th nationally). Not an aberration as they return a number of key players from last year’s team which finished with a 26-8 record and landed in the top 30 in shooting percentage. These teams have combined to play 15 games this season and 12 have gone Over the total. We’ll call for another high scoring game on Monday night.

#649/650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136 Points – Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The last 2 years these 2 teams have met twice and the total points scored didn’t reach 130 in either game. We see a similar scenario playing out on Saturday. These were 2 of the top defensive teams in the country last season (both in top 25 in defensive efficiency) and that’s continued this year where they are both currently in the top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. As far as straight defensive FG% these teams are currently #1 and #2 in the nation with the Illini allowing teams to make only 34% of their shots and the Scarlet Knights allowing 34.6%. Illinois has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 60 points or less and only Marquette who plays fast and is the 7th most efficient offense in the country, got to 70 points (71-64 Final). Rutgers has also given up 60 points or less in 4 of their 6 games and the most they’ve allowed this year is 68. On offense neither is all that great. Rutgers has topped 71 points only once this season yet they haven’t played a single defense ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. The Illini have better overall numbers on offense but they’ve faced only 2 defenses all season ranked inside the top 150 and they were held to 64 points in each of those games. Both offenses rank outside the top 220 in 3 point FG% and neither shoot FT’s very well (57% for Illinois & 65% for Rutgers). Illinois prefers to play fast but Rutgers is a slow paced team and at home so we expect them to control the tempo here. Under is the call.

#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game.

#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under.

#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – San Diego State vs Creighton, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - Creighton’s offense has been rolling in the NCAA tourney scoring 72, 85, and 86 points. Their last 2 games they averaged 1.21 PPP and 1.24 PPP vs Baylor and Princeton reaching 161 total points in each of those wins. Since March 1st the Blue Jays have averaged 82 PPG on 1.20 PPP which ranks them 16th nationally during that time period. The Aztecs averaged 73 PPG on the season and they just put up 71 points on Alabama who has the 3rd most efficient defense in the nation. Bama only had 64 points but had a brutal night from beyond the arc making just 3 of 27 (11%) and that game and they put up only 0.86 PPP. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 35% in the game and it still reached 135 total points despite that brutal offensive effort. We expect the Aztecs offense to play much better here vs a Creighton defense that allowed 75 points to Princeton on Friday and has given up at least 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Creighton games have totaled at least 135 points in 11 straight games. The Jays will want to play fast and while San Diego State is a slower paced team, when they fast an up tempo team on Friday (Bama) the 2 teams combined for 140 shot attempts and 42 FT attempts. This total is set too low in our opinion and we’ll take the Over.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 144 Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State, 6:10 PM ET - Our predictive analytics have this game finishing with 151 or more total points as we expect both teams to score in the high 70’s or above. Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats is a dynamic point guard that sees the floor extremely well and can shoot it too. He had 20-points and 19 assists in K-State’s win over Michigan State. KSU wants to play fast with the 43rd highest Adjusted Tempo rating in the nation and on average it takes them just 16.5 seconds to hoist a shot. The Wildcats rank 35th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. They also own a 52.2EFG% which is good for 82nd. Florida Atlantic is also very capable of point up points in a hurry with an offense that was 26th in OEFF at 1.146PPP. The Owls were average in Adjusted Tempo, but their average possession length was considerably faster. FAU has an EFG% of 54.3% which is 26 in the nation and they rank 45th or better in both 3PT% and 2PT%. Looking at the Owls most recent 13 games we find they scored 90 or more points four times. They scored 70+ in 10 of their last thirteen games. Kansas State has scored 73 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. KSU averaged over 76PPG and that’s with a majority of those games coming in Big12 play where 6 of the top 27 defensive efficiency teams reside. We love the spot for a shootout! Easy OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 138 San Diego State vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM ET - We get two different styles of play here as the Tide want to play fast with the 5th fastest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, while San Diego State is 263rd in that same category. Both teams are somewhat similar offensively with the 18th most efficient offense for Bama and the 70th for the Aztecs. What each team does exceptionally well is play defense. San Diego State allows .908-points per possession which is 6th best in the nation. They own the 28th best EFG% defense and are 4th best in defending the 3-point line. As good as the Aztecs are, the Tide are better. Bama is 3rd in DEFF allowing .881PPP, rank 1st in EFG% defense, 3rd in 3PT% defense and 1st in FG% D. These two teams have trended to the Under when playing good competition or teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. In that scenario, the Aztecs have stayed Under in 6 straight, Alabama is 5-1 Under in their last six in the same situation. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 134.5 Wisconsin @ Oregon, 9 PM ET - The Ducks are dealing with injuries with several starters missing both NIT games thus far. Reports are they will have All-Pac 12 starting center N’Faly Dante back for this game against Wisconsin and potentially Jermaine Couisnard. Those are important pieces for a Ducks team that was 53rd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .979PPP. Oregon held opponents to 66.7PPG on the season on 41.7% shooting. The Ducks just faced UCF who is very similar to Wisconsin when it come to pace of play as the Knights averaged 64.8 possessions per game which was 307th in the nation. This Badger team is even slower yet, ranking 342nd at 63.5 and it takes them on average 19.6 seconds per possession to get a shot up (348th). Wisconsin also knows a little something about defense ranking 27th in the country in DEFF allowing just .950-points per possession. The Badgers were a very poor shooting team on the season at 41.7% (317th) and scored just 65.2PPG. Bucky is coming off a game at home where they shot 54% overall which is unlikely to happen again, especially on the road. Oregon has an adjusted tempo of 66.7 which ranks them 205th so they prefer a slower pace also. The bet here is UNDER.

#841/842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 140.5 Points – Michigan State vs Marquette, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - We were on the Under in the 1st round game Vermont vs Marquette and we’ll stick with that in today’s Golden Eagles match up with Michigan State. After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. In Friday’s NCAA opener they limited Vermont to 61 points on 0.97 PPP. All 4 of those defensive efforts were impressive and this Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. After struggling defensively their final few games of the regular season, MSU head coach Tom Izzo made it clear to his team they needed to pick it up on that end of the court. They took that to heart and held a good USC offense that averages 73 PPG to just 62 points on Friday. Even after the game Izzo stressed how his team won because they played better defense. Both defenses force opponents into long possessions with Marquette opponents taking 18.7 seconds per possession (7th best in the nation) and MSU opponents taking 18.3 seconds per possession (38th). MSU ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency and while Marquette struggled early in the season on that end of the court, they actually rank 22nd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Offensively Marquette likes to play fast although they’ve slowed down considerably as of late. They’ve averaged just 68 PPG in regulation in the post season (conference & NCAA) and MSU will slow this game down (Sparty 304th in adjusted tempo). Neither team is great at offensive rebounding (both ranked outside the top 220) and neither scores many points from the FT line (both outside the top 300 in % of points from the charity stripe). We project this game to land in the mid 130’s and we love the value on the Under.

#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 127.5 Points – Northwestern vs UCLA, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Two slow paced teams, UCLA 235th and NW 309th in adjusted tempo, that play very good defense. UCLA ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats rank 19th. The Bruins allow just 60 PPG (7th nationally) while NW gives up only 62 PPG (20th). More recently, since February 1st both of these defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in efficiency. NW has allowed less than 70 points in 14 of their last 16 games while UCLA has allowed less than 70 in 12 of their last 14 games. Since losing @ USC on January 26th, the Bruins have held 11 of their last 14 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP. Offensively neither team is overly efficient away from home this season. Both barely average 1.00 PPP on the road and neither is a great shooting team. Northwestern ranks 316th in eFG% and UCLA ranks 155th. The Bruins score very little from beyond the arc (333rd in % of points from deep) and while NW takes more 3’s, they only shoot 32% from out there (275th). Lastly neither team gets to the FT line very often so we don’t look for many freebies in this game. This will be a grinder that should stay Under barring any late fouling (scramble) situations.

#743/744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 144.5 Points – Vermont vs Marquette, Friday at 2:45 PM ET - After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. All 3 of those defensive efforts were impressive, especially the final 2 as both UConn and Xavier are ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. This Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. They are facing a Vermont offense that ranks 98th in efficiency, however they haven’t faced many top tier defensive teams this season. Their conference, America East, doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The only top 70 defenses they’ve faced all season were St Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Yale. The Catamounts scored 53, 57, 50, and 44 points in those games respectively. Vermont is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (313th in adjusted tempo) and they know they have to slow this game down to have a chance. They were solid defensively this season ranking #1 in the conference in efficiency. Neither team is very good on the offensive glass which will mean very few 2nd chance points. Neither team fouls very much and when it comes to percentage of points at the FT line they both rank outside the top 325. Vermont makes this a slow paced game and Marquette’s defense continues to shine. Under here.

#787/788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154 Points – Kennesaw State vs Xavier, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Two fast paced teams going at it here in game where we should see lots of offensive possessions. Both rank in the top 100 in offensive possessions per game while Xavier is 39th nationally in adjusted tempo and Kennesaw State is 121st. The Musketeers rank 12th in the country in scoring averaging 82 PPG while the Owls aren’t far behind averaging 76 PPG (89th in the nation). On the other end of the court, neither of these teams is all that great defensively. When it comes to guarding the 3 point arc, both are poor ranking outside the top 230 and they are facing offenses that are very good at hitting from deep with Xavier making 39.5% (3rd in the nation) and KSU making 37% (34th in the nation). The Owls defense ranked 212th this season in eFG% allowed despite the majority of their games coming in a conference (Atlantic Sun) that had only 3 teams ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Xavier’s defense has been shaky all season allowing 74.5 PPG (305th nationally). These 2 have been cashing Overs all season long with a combined record of 40-24-2 to the Over. Should be an exciting game to watch if you like offense. High scoring and we like the Over.

#751/752 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 152 Points – Iowa vs Auburn, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET - We’ve discussed Iowa’s massive offensive dichotomy when playing at home compared to on the road many times this season. Their offensive efficiency numbers drop for 1.22 PPP at home to 0.99 PPP on the road or neutral site. They average a ridiculous 20 fewer points away from home (89 PPG at home / 69 PPG on the road). Lastly their shooting numbers on the road are 41% overall and only 28% from deep. The Hawkeyes are facing a very good defense here in Auburn. The Tigers 5th nationally defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 28.8%. They also rank 12th in eFG% defense and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cats allowed just 67 PPG and we expect Iowa to struggle offensive as they often do away from home. Iowa’s defense isn’t great by any means, however the Auburn offense isn’t either. They rank outside the top 300 in 3 point FG% making only 31% and the Tigers rank just 248th in eFG%. They’ve also slowed down their pace dramatically compared to past seasons. This year they sit 165th in adjusted tempo after finishing in the top 55 the previous 2 seasons. Iowa will want to play fast but Auburn will want to slow this one down a bit. Iowa’s road games average 141 total points and Auburn’s road games averaged 142 total points. Unless both teams shoot lights out, we don’t see this getting into the 150’s. This is an unfamiliar venue for both teams and we’ll call for the Under here.

#675/676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Bradley vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We have 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country facing off in Madison on Tuesday night. The Braves rank 289th in adjusted tempo and Wisconsin ranks 348th. Defensively both of these teams make opposing offenses work hard for a decent shot. Opponents vs the UW defense have an average possession time of 18.3 seconds (325th) and the Bradley defense allows opponents an average possession length of 18.7 seconds (357th). Offensively these teams rank 345th (Wisconsin) and 319th (Bradley) in possessions per game out of 363 teams. The fact is, there just won’t be many opportunities for the offenses in this game. And when there are, both defenses are solid. Wisconsin ranks 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Bradley ranks 51st (1st in the Missouri Valley Conference). Neither teams is adept on the offensive glass while both are very good defensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points will be minimal. We should also see very few FT attempts in this game as both Wisconsin and Bradley rank outside the top 340 in percentage of points from the charity stripe and when they get there both only shoot in the mid 60% range. We don’t see either of these teams topping 65 points in this one and we’ll grab the Under.

#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 149 Points – Kent State vs Toledo, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - In the MAC Title game we have 2 fast paced, extremely efficient offenses which should lead to a high scoring game. Toledo ranks 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are #1 in the MAC. The Rockets have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 17 games! They are in the top 5 nationally in PPG, FG%, and 3 point FG%. They also hit 77% of their FT’s as a team. On the other end of the court, Toledo struggles. The rank outside the top 250 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. Kent ranks 4th in the MAC in offensive efficiency and they average 76 PPG on the season. The Golden Flashes have been on quite a roll offensively as well putting up at least 70 points in 10 straight games. Kent’s defense is much better than Toledo’s ranking 1st in the MAC in efficiency, however, they’ve held some of the poor offensive teams in the conference in check but the top teams have put up points vs the Flashes. The 4 most efficient offenses in the league minus Kent’s offense were Toledo, Akron, Ball St, and Ohio, and they averaged 72 PPG vs this Kent defense. In yesterday’s games, Toledo topped Ohio 82-75 despite shooting only 44% combined from the field. Kent topped Akron 79-73 and those 2 teams combined to make only 41% of their shots. We expect both teams to shoot better than those numbers today and this game gets at least into the 150’s.

#679/680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points – Ohio State vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect a slow paced, defensive battle as most Big 10 match ups tend to be. Wisconsin is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation averaging only 65 possessions per game (347th). OSU averages just 68 possessions per game which is 259th in the nation. Wisconsin’s defense is very solid allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (26th nationally) and while OSU’s isn’t quite as good (125th nationally) they should be able to limit a Badger offense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 in scoring and eFG% and 12th in offensive efficiency. Wisconsin has scored 65 points or fewer in 16 of their 20 Big 10 games this season and we don’t expect them to be great on offense tonight. The Badger rely very heavily on the 3 point shot and they’re not great at it ranking 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%. They don’t shoot well at the rim or inside the arc period ranking 328th hitting only 46% of their shots. OSU, on the other hand, doesn’t shoot many 3’s (26% of their points coming from deep – 12th in the Big 10) and their top inside scoring, Zed Key is injured so that will affect their inside game. Finally we don’t expect many trips to the FT line in this game as both rank inside the top 80 nationally in not fouling while both offenses rank outside the top 300 in % of points from the FT line. In their only meeting this season these 2 totaled 125 points and we see s similar outcome here. Let’s not forget that his is at the United Center in Chicago which is a large NBA venue that can be tough on shooters. Under is the play.

#875/876 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 142 Points – North Dakota State vs South Dakota State, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - This will be the third time these 2 have faced each other this year and the first 2 meetings had drastically different results in regards to the total. The first meeting NDSU won 65-59 for 124 total points scored. The 2nd meeting SDSU won 90-85 for 175 total points scored so the difference between the 2 meetings was a whopping 51 points. The interesting part here was the 2nd meeting in which they scored 175 points was just a month ago and despite that high scoring affair, this total opened 143 and has dropped to 141. We agree with the move. The first meeting was much closer to the norm for these 2 teams. Only 124 total points scored yet both averaged over 1.00 PPP in that game. South Dakota State averaged 1.01 PPP and they average 1.05 so not a drastic difference. North Dakota State actually eclipsed their average despite the low scoring game averaging 1.10 PPP in the win and their season average is 1.04. In the 2nd meeting that totaled 175 points both were WAY over their season averages on the offensive end. SDSU averaged a whopping 1.38 PPP in that game while NDSU put up 1.31 PPP. The combined to shoot almost 57% from the field (both average 45%) and they made 46% of their 3’s (they average 33% and 34% on the season). Both of these defenses drastically underperformed in that game as they rank 2nd and 3rd in the Summit in defensive efficiency. You can bet after their most recent meeting both coaches have stressed defense heading into this game. Both teams are poor offensive rebounding teams (ranked outside the top 300) and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t see many 2nd chances in that regard. We also anticipate minimal FT attempts in this game as neither foul much and offensive neither get to the line very often (outside the top 200 in % of points scored at the FT line). Both defenses showed up in their opening game of this conference tourney allowed 68 (NDSU) and 55 (SDSU) points with both of their games staying Under the total by a combined 30 points. Neither averages 70 PPG away from home this year and we think this game stays in the 130’s. Take the Under.

#803/804 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams facing off here and both are slow paced so we do not expect many possessions in this game. Maryland is 325th nationally in possessions per game and Northwestern is 294th. Both defensive units rank in the top 30 in efficiency and PPG allowed. The Cats have allowed 65 points or fewer in 11 of their 17 Big 10 games this season. They’ve held their last 6 opponents to 66 points or less. In 4 of their last 5 games NW faced teams ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency (Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana) and they held each of those teams to 63 points or less. Maryland is coming off a poor defensive performance vs a bad Minnesota team allowing 70 points on 1.11 PPP. You can bet they’ll be focused on that end of the court today. Prior to that, in their previous 9 games the Terps did not allow a team to top 68 points and held 7 of those 9 opponents to less than 60 points. They should be able to stifle a Northwestern offense that ranks outside the top 275 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. As shaky as the Cats are at shooting the 3, Maryland is worst ranking 317th making just 31% from deep. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc here which will help keep this game lower soring. NW has gone Under the total in 7 straight games and Maryland has gone Under the total 11 of their last 13 games after a SU win. These 2 have combined to play 56 games and 36 have gone Under the total. Big Ten grinder on Sunday.

#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Kansas vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met back in January with TCU rolling over Kansas 83-60. The total in that game was set at 146.5 and the game when Under yet now this total is set even higher at 149. Interesting and we agree on the move. TCU’s offense is a bit undervalued as they rank 4th in efficiency in the Big 12 but they played 5 of their last 6 games without their top offensive player, Mike Miles. With Miles on the shelf this TCU team averaged only 67 PPG and when he came back on Saturday they put up 100 points on Oklahoma State who is fantastic defensively. In fact, the Cowboys rank 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and 15th in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to Saturday’s outburst from the Horned Frogs, Okie State was allowing just 64 PPG. With Miles in the line up this season TCU is averaging 78.5 PPG. They shredded the KU defense in the first meeting and we expect they’ll do the same at home where the are averaging 79 PPG on the season. KU is averaging 77 PPG on the road this season but shot poorly at home in the first meeting (39%). Their offense is peaking now and we expect a much better performance. The Jayhawks have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve faced 5 top 50 defenses (efficiency) during that stretch. Defensively they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 4 of their last 6 games. These are 2 of the faster paced teams in the country (both inside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency) and neither turns the ball over very often so we expect plenty of possessions in this game. Over is the play on Monday night.

#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - When these 2 met in January the total was set at 139 and the game went over the total by 1 point with Purdue winning 71-69. Both offenses played well in that game combining to make 47% of their shots overall and 42% of their 3 points shots. Both eclipsed their average offensive efficiency in league play with OSU scoring 1.15 PPP and Purdue 1.18 PPP in that game. They average 1.01 and 1.10 PPP in conference play respectively. Despite the very good offensive performance, they still only made it to 140 total points. Neither offense is playing very well right now. OSU’s offense has fallen off a cliff. They did score 75 in their most recent game but that was vs Iowa who is the fastest paced team in the league and the 12th most efficient defense in the conference. Prior to that they had been held to 70 points or less in 10 of 12 games and now they face a Purdue defense that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency allowing 0.95 PPP. Purdue has been held under 60 points in back to back games and it averaging just 70 PPG over their last 5. The Boilers will keep this game at a slow tempo as they are the slowest paced team in Big 10 play. Under is the play in this one.

#749/750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Purdue vs Maryland, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Purdue topped the Terps 58-55 in a very low scoring game. We anticipate another Under play tonight. Both of these teams rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and in PPG allowed with the Boilers giving up only 61.7 PPG and Maryland allowing 62.8 PPG. They are also both slow paced teams which should limit possessions. Purdue ranks 13th in the Big 10 (out of 14 teams) in adjusted tempo and Maryland ranks 12th in the conference in that stat. In the first meeting these 2 really struggled from beyond the arc and we look for a similar result on Thursday. Neither team is a great from beyond the arc with Maryland 335th nationally in 3 point % and Purdue ranked 202nd in that stat. Both defenses defend the arc very well allowing 30% (Maryland) and 31% (Purdue) to their opponents. Both offenses rely heavily on getting to the FT line (both score over 20% of their total points from the stripe) but that doesn’t bode well here as Purdue allows the fewest points from the FT line of any team in the country and Maryland is solid in that regard as well. Purdue’s offense has solid season long efficiency numbers, however on the road in Big 10 play they are averaging only 64 PPG. Maryland’s offense ranks 8th in the Big 10 (conference play) in efficiency and 10th in eFG%. The Terps have played 6 games this season vs the top 5 Big 10 defensive teams (efficiency) and they are averaging 57 PPG in those contests. These 2 have combined to play 51 games this season and their Under record is 32-19. Another low scoring Big 10 game on Thursday night.

#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Alabama vs Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the very best defensive teams in the nation are facing off in this one. They rank #1 and #2 nationally in eFG% defense and 3 point % defense. The Vols are the top defensive efficiency team in the country allowing 0.86 points per possession and Bama ranks 6th nationally in that stat allowing 0.90 PPP. They key to this total staying under will be tempo. The Tide want to play fast and they thrive in an up tempo game. We don’t think there is any way the Vols allow this to be an up & down game. There best chance and winning this one is to slow the pace which they prefer anyway ranking 14th (dead last) in the SEC on adjusted tempo (conference games). We’ve always said it’s tough to speed up a team that likes to play slow, especially at home. Both teams like to shoot the 3, but neither is a great shooting team from deep with Bama ranking 125th in the country in 3 point % and Tennessee ranks 231st. On top of that, as we mentioned, these are the 2 best 3 point defensive teams in the nation so we don’t expect either to go crazy from deep. The Vols are allowing just 53 PPG at home this season and their games at home are averaging 130 total points. The Tide are averaging an impressive 88 PPG at home this season, however their point total on the road drops significantly to 76 PPG. Now the face the most efficient defense in the country and in their 9 road games thus far the average rank of the defenses they’ve faced is 81st and they’ve averaged 144 total points in those games. Alabama coach Oats and Tennessee coach Barnes have faced off 4 times since Oats to the Bama job in 2019. All 4 games have gone Under the total and none have topped 141 total points. Going back further, these 2 SEC rivals have gone Under the total 9 straight times. We’ll call for another Under tonight.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These are 2 of the worst teams in the Big 10 when it comes to offensive efficiency. MSU ranks 11th in the conference (league games) averaging 0.99 points per possession and OSU is 9th at 1.02 PPP. Sparty averages just 65 PPG in conference play and the Buckeyes put up only 68 PPG. OSU has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their offense is in a free fall right now. Their conference numbers are a bit skewed due to their 93 points outburst vs Iowa (the fastest paced team and worst defensive team in the league) but outside of that, the Bucks have topped 70 points just two other times in Big 10 play. Over their last 5 outings Ohio State is averaging 64 PPG on 42% shooting and an abysmal 26% from beyond the arc. Now facing an MSU defense that leads the Big 10 in 3-point defense and is in the top 4 in FG% allowed and points allowed, we look for another struggle from the OSU offense. The Buckeyes defense is middle of the pack in the Big 10 in FG% and 3 point % allowed but they should look better than that today vs an MSU offense the just isn’t very good. The Spartans are averaging just 64 PPG on the road this year and in their last 5 games they are putting up only 62 PPG. They have topped 70 points just ONCE in Big 10 play and that was vs Nebraska. MSU has had only 2 of their 13 conference games have 140 total points this season and those games were vs Indiana & Illinois. Just 4 of OSU’s 13 Big 10 games have topped 140 total points. We have this total set in the low 130’s with our power ratings so we like the value on the Under here. We don’t expect either team to reach 70 and Under is the play.

#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Fordham vs Richmond, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Fordham likes to play at a fast pace, however Richmond knows they can’t run with the Rams and would prefer a slower paced game. The Spiders are the 4th slowest paced team in the A10 and nationally they rank 284th in adjusted tempo. We anticipate Richmond getting the pace they want at home and slowing this game down. If that happens, we expect an easy Under as both defenses are far superior to the opposing offenses. The defenses in this match up rank 91st nationally (Fordham) and 108th (Richmond) in adjusted defensive efficiency while the offenses each rank outside the top 200. When it comes to conference play only, Fordham ranks 14th in offensive efficiency in the 15 team league and Richmond comes in at 13th in that category. They are also the 2 worst 3-point shooting teams in conference play with Fordham making only 27% of their triples and Richmond just 29%. Neither team is efficient on the offensive glass and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t look for many 2nd chance points. The Spiders have topped 64 points just once in their last 7 games and Fordham has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 70 points or fewer. The Rams offense has had some high scoring games over the last week, however those were vs fast paced teams in higher possession games. When they played the slower paced teams in the A10 they scored just 43 vs Davidson and 58 vs Dayton. We don’t see either team getting out of the 60’s in this game and we grab the Under.

#885/886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Kent State vs Akron, Friday at 9 PM ET - The 2 best teams in the MAC squaring off here in what we expect will be a defensive battle. These are the 2 top defensive teams in the conference ranking #1 and #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Both are very good at creating turnovers defensively ranking 1st and 2nd in the MAC (both over 20% defensive TO rate) which will lead to some lost offensive possessions for each. Akron has allowed more than 70 points just one time in their 9 conference games. Kent has allowed more than 70 points just twice in their 8 MAC contests. These 2 lead the league in scoring defense and when it comes to pace, don’t expect and up and down game as Akron ranks 12th (dead last) in adjusted tempo in MAC play and Kent ranks 10th. Offensively neither is a great shooting team with each ranking outsited the top 200 in eFG% and both are below average from beyond the arc at 32% and 33%. Not only are these 2 the best teams in the league, this is a huge rivalry which has led to a number of low scoring games in this heated series. 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone Under the total and only 2 of the last 10 have topped 133 total points. These 2 have combined to play 40 games this season and only 15 have gone Over the total. Under is the play in this HUGE MAC game tonight.

#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128 Points – Mississippi State vs South Carolina, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two slow paced, poor shooting teams facing off here in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. Both of these teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and both rank outside the top 330 in offensive eFG%. They rank 13th and 14th in the SEC (14 team league) in both scoring and FG%. When it comes to scoring from beyond the arc, Mississippi State has been terrible making only 28% of their triples (355th nationally) while South Carolina makes only 32%. Both teams do a good job of keeping their opponents off the FT line with MSU’s foes scoring only 16% of their points from the charity stripe and South Carolina’s opponents scoring just 15% from the line. The few times these teams get to the line tonight, it won’t be pretty with MSU making just 62% and SC just 64% of their freebies. The Bulldogs are an outstanding defensive team ranking 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22th in eFG% defense, while allowing just 59 PPG (8th in the country). South Carolina is not a great defensive team, however with how MSU struggles to shoot the ball, the Gamecocks don’t have to be great on that end. On the road this season, the Bulldogs are averaging only 56 PPG, shooting 39% as a team, and a terrible 21% from beyond the arc. With MSU favored by 10, the projected score here is right around 70-60. The Bulldogs have gotten to 70 points since December 3rd (13 straight games) while South Carolina is averaging just 64 PPG on the season and this will be one of the better defenses they’ve faced. Under is the call here.

#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is absolutely the strength of both teams in this match up. NW ranks 19th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Nebraska ranks 35th in that category. That Cats allow just 61 PPG (15th nationally) and the Huskers are giving up only 67 PPG. Both are slower paced as well ranking outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo. The offenses are another story in this match up. The rank 235th (Nebraska) and 340th (NW) in eFG% along with each ranking outside the top 275 in 3 point shooting percentage. The Huskers rank dead last in 3 point % in Big 10 play (29%) and Northwestern is 9th hitting only 33%. Overall in Big 10 play the Wildcats rank last in FG% and Nebraska steps in at 11th in that statistic. On top of that, the strength of each defense matches up very well with the opposing offense. Despite not shooting 3’s very well, NW scores over 34% of their points from deep (91st most nationally) but Nebraska is very good a defending the arc allowing 32% shooting by opponents. The Huskers, on the other hand, shoot very few 3’s scoring almost 58% of their points inside the arc and the Wildcats are #1 nationally in 2 point FG% allowed at 41%. These 2 have combined to play 38 games so far this season and the Under has a record of 26-11-1 in those games. Another Big 10 low scoring, grinder.

#835/836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – Maryland vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue’s defense has been lights out in conference play which is bad news for a struggling Maryland offense. The Boilers rank 18th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in scoring defense allowing just 60 PPG. In conference play, since their opener vs Minnesota way back on December 4th, the Boilers have since allowed only 58 PPG over their last 7 Big 10 games. Maryland offense has scored 67 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 conference games and in their 4 Big 10 road games the Terps have averaged just 55 PPG. The strength of Maryland’s team is definitely their defense as they rank 37th nationally in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Neither team shoots the 3 point all that well (both ranked outside the top 200 in 3 point %) and both are very good at defending the arc so we do not foresee many 3 balls today. Both also prevent their opponents from getting to the FT line very often, especially Purdue who ranks #1 nationally in that category. This has been a low scoring series with 6 of the last 7 meetings going Under the total and only 1 of the last 6 meetings has topped 123 total points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and they’ve combined for a record of 26-11 to the Under this season. Another low scoring, Big 10 grinder.

#745/746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127 Points – Rutgers vs Northwestern, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Two of the top defensive teams not only in the Big 10 but in the country facing off here. Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 56 PPG (4th best nationally). Northwestern ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 58 PPG (13th in the country). Both rank in the 10 top in the nation in FG% allowed, each right around 37%. Both rank in the top 30 in forcing turnovers so we should have plenty of empty possessions in the half court as neither team likes the up tempo game. Now to the offenses. Neither team shoots the ball very well ranking 241st (Rutgers) and 337th (NW) in eFG%. Both teams rank outside the top 265 in three point % both hitting right around 31% for the season. Despite not shooting it very well, the Wildcats do like to shoot 3’s with 34% of their points coming from deep but that plays right into Rutgers defensive strength as they limit opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc (8th best nationally). On the other end, Rutgers takes very few 3’s but their scoring inside should be limited here vs a NW defense that allows opponents to make just 41% of their 2 point shots (2nd best nationally). This one sets up as a low scoring, Big 10 grinder and we’re on the Under.

#737/738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Two very solid defenses that make opposing offenses work for shots leads to a lower scoring game here. These defenses are each rated in the top 30 nationally in adjusted efficiency and in the top 20 in eFG% defense. Maryland’s defense limits opponents to a shot very 17.9 seconds (281st) and Rutgers defense is allowing a shot every 18.3 seconds (336th) so both offense are really going to be limited when it comes to how many shots they actually get. When looking at Unders we like to find games where 3 point shots won’t be a huge factor. We expect that to be the case here as neither teams shoots the 3 ball all that much and neither does it well with Maryland hitting 30.8% of their triples (294th nationally) and Rutgers makes only 31.3% of their 3’s (272nd in the country). Now we add in both defensive teams which rank in the top 20 nationally at defending the arc and we just don’t many points from deep in this game. At home the Scarlet Knights have been through the roof defensively allowing just 50 PPG so far this season and they’ve allowed just 1 of their 10 opponents to reach the 60 point mark. Maryland has faced 5 top 100 defenses (adjusted efficiency) this season and they are averaging 58 PPG in those contests (Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Rutgers has also faced 5 teams rated in the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and they have averaged 59 PPG in those games (Maryland ranks 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency). These 2 met twice last season and both games fell below 130 total points. Take the Under on Thursday Night.

#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132 Points – Nebraska vs Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this match up. Both rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency and both allow their opponents to make only 40% from the field on the season. Both also prefer a slower paced game with MSU ranking 300th in adjusted tempo and Nebraska 281st. MSU has not allowed more than 70 points since late November, a span of 6 straight games. The Husker defense has really improved this season holding a number of high scoring offenses in check including stopping Iowa in their tracks in their most recent game limiting the Hawkeyes to just 50 points (Iowa averages 81 PPG). Nebraska also held Purdue to 56 points in regulation (Boilers average 77 PPG) and Creighton to 53 points (Blue Jays average 77 PPG) just to name a few. Offensively neither of these teams is a great shooting team. Both rank outside the top 180 in FG% and outside the top 200 in points per game. Since we hit December, Nebraska has scored 65, 65, 56 (in regulation), 56, 75 (vs Queens College), and 66 points. Since November 30th the Spartans have topped 68 points only one time (6 games) and that was vs a Buffalo who is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with a defense thar ranks 218th in efficiency. 5 of MSU’s last 6 games have totaled 133 points or less and 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 haven’t even reached 130 total points. Under here.