Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-18-25 | Purdue +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 66-75 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#615 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3.5 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue off a bad home outing vs Wisconsin and Michigan State off an upset win @ Illinois. We really like this situation for the Boilers. Their 10 point home loss on Saturday vs a red hot Wisconsin team was a game where the Badgers simply couldn’t miss hitting 62% of their shots overall and 40% of their triples. The Boilers, who thrive on creating turnovers (#1 in the Big 10) only forced 3 turnovers by the Badgers. Deadly shooting and almost no giveaways led the Badgers to that win on the road. Purdue’s other 2 Big 10 losses went to the wire losing by 3 vs OSU and by 2 vs Michigan. The Spartans shouldn’t be able to exploit the Boilers from deep as they are simply not a good 3 point shooting team as they rank 353rd nationally making only 29% of their triples this season (350th in made 3’s per game). They also turn the ball over a lot (15th in the Big 10 with a 17% turnover percentage) so that also plays directly into the Boilers defensive strength of creating giveaways. PU should have a big advantage from deep ranking 26th nationally hitting 38% of their 3 balls. While they are off an upset win @ Illinois, the Spartans have cooled off drastically after their 9-0 start to the conference season losing 3 of their last 5 games including a setback at home vs Indiana, the Hoosiers only win in their last 7 games. We like looking for really solid teams off bad performances and that’s what we’re getting here with Purdue. Not only that, they are underdogs so we have some cushion here. We like Purdue to keep this very close and have a shot on the road win (5-2 SU on the road in the Big 10 this season). | |||||||
02-18-25 | Lipscomb -3.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#306545 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -3.5 over Eastern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Lipscomb sits in 1st place in the Atlantic Sun and they are easily the best team in the league ranking 86th nationally per KenPom. No other team in that conference ranks above 114th. We’re getting the best team in the league with some extra motivation as they lost at home vs EKU just a few weeks ago. In that game the Bisons shot only 39% which is well below their season average of 48% in league play which ranks them #1 in the conference. EKU ranks 9th defensively in the ASun in FG% allowed at 46% so it’s not as if they are a lock down defensive team. It was just one of those games for the Lipscomb offense. Speaking of #1, here are the stats that Lipscomb leads the Asun in…FG%, scoring margin (+12.4 PPG), defensive FG%, defensive 3 point FG%, defensive scoring (allowing 67 PPG), and defensive rebounding. 8 of their 11 conference wins have come by double digits and none by less than 5 points. On the road this team has only lost once in league play vs Northern Alabama who is tied with Lipscomb for 1st place in the conference. The Bison were favored by 9.5 in their loss vs EKU and now we’re getting them at a low number because they are on the road. Great value as this team is outstanding on the road and EKU doesn’t have a great home court advantage (already 3 home losses this season). All 3 of those losses came vs teams ranked 112th or lower, well below this Lipscomb team. EKU is 10-4 in the conference but they rank middle of the pack in the league (5th per KenPom) and they have a negative FG% differential and 3 point FG% differential in conference games. Lipscomb is the much better team and extra motivated for this one. We’ll lay it. | |||||||
02-16-25 | Utah State +6.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
#857 ASA PLAY ON Utah State +6.5 over New Mexico, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played just over 2 weeks ago and USU was favored by 4 at home in that game. They lost big, which is a rarity, and now we’re getting value here with the Utes getting a full +6 at the opener. USU’s loss at home vs the Lobos was by far their worst performance of the season. They lost 82-63, shot just 38% and from beyond the arc the Utes were 5 of 31 (16%) and made only 10 of 23 FT’s. That’s from a team that leads the Mountain West in conference games hitting over 37% of their triples. Just one of the games where nothing was going in which happens even to the best teams from time to time. We don’t expect a repeat performance from Utah State who is one of the best shooting teams in the nation (5th nationally in FG%) and they lead the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. All those factors along with the fact they rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the MWC in offensive turnover rate) is why this team is so good on the road. They have a near perfect 7-1 record away from home with their only loss coming by 3 points. They have already topped some really good teams on the road including San Diego State, St Mary’s, and Nevada. The Utes shoot better on the road than they do at home (51% on the road) and they are allowing just 68 PPG away from home. The Lobos sit in 1st place in the MWC and USU is one game behind them so this is a big one. New Mexico is very good but this is too many points for a team that is also very good and has some extra incentive after getting embarrassed a few weeks ago. USU is 22-3 on the year with a 2 point loss, a 3 point loss, and then their poor performance vs the Lobos. The Utes have actually won 9 of the last 16 @ New Mexico and we think this one goes to the wire. Take the points. | |||||||
02-15-25 | Middle Tennessee v. Western Kentucky -2 | Top | 87-77 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
#768 ASA PLAY ON Western Kentucky -2 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - WKY had a needed week off since playing last Saturday as they look to get some players back in the lineup. Last Saturday they battled valiantly with just 8 players available at 1st place Jacksonville State before losing 85-83. The Hilltoppers blew a 19 point lead in that game simply running out of gas in the 2nd half due to the short line up. It looks like starter Kalambay (9 PPG) will return after missing last week with an illness and key bench player Edelen could be back as well. WKY is 11-2 at home this season with their only conference home loss coming vs Jax State who as we mentioned sits in 1st place. MTSU will be playing their 3rd straight road game and they are 3-3 away from home in CUSA play with their wins coming by 1, 2, and 4 points. They are coming off a road upset win @ Kennesaw State where they shot 50% from the field and still only won by a single point. Despite their 5-6 league record, Western Kentucky is still rated as the 3rd best team in CUSA behind only Jacksonville State and Liberty who are in 1st and 2nd place. The Toppers have played the strongest strength of schedule in the league and have 3 wins over teams ranked in the top 5 in CUSA including a win @ Liberty who is ranked #1 (per KenPom). They’ve only played 4 home games thus far in their 11 game conference slate. These teams met a month ago @ MTSU and the Blue Raiders won 71-57 with WKY shooting only 33% from the field and 20% from deep. It was by far their worst offensive output of the entire season and we like them to bounce back tonight at home where they are averaging 84 PPG. If this one is tight as the line suggests, FT’s could be a key and WKY hits 76% from the stripe in CUSA play while MTSU makes only 65%. We’ll lay this small number. | |||||||
02-15-25 | Seattle University v. Tarleton State +5.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#772 ASA PLAY ON Tarleton State +5.5 over Seattle, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Huge quick revenger for Tarleton who just played @ Seattle 10 days ago and lost 91-54 as a 9 point dog. Seattle shot lights out in that game hitting 57% of their shots overall (they average 42%) and 60% of their triples hitting 15 of 25. Seattle scored a ridiculous 1.54 PPP which is WAY above their season WAC average of 1.04 PPP. The Texans strength is their defense so you can bet they’ll put some extra emphasis on that end of the court and won’t let that happen again. Tarleton hasn’t been great on the road but at home they’ve been very feisty winning 8 of 10 overall (average margin of +11 PPG) with just 1 home loss in WAC play on Thursday by just 4 points vs Grand Canyon, the highest rated team in the conference. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a poor road team. They have yet to win on the road in WAC play and just lost by 16 @ Abilene Christian on Thursday night now 48 hours later they are on the road again. Seattle is shooting just 39% away from home and losing by an average margin of -7 PPG so don’t expect them to make everything in sight as they did at home 10 days ago vs this TSU team. As a road favorite the Redhawks are now 0-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS their last 11 in that role. Tarleton, on the other hand, is 3-0 ATS as a home dog this season winning 2 of those games outright. TSU won both meetings last year before getting clobbered a few days ago and you can bet they’ll be more than ready for this rematch. We like Tarleton to win this game outright so we’ll take the points. | |||||||
02-14-25 | St. Louis v. Loyola-Chicago -2.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
#870 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -2.5 over St Louis, Friday at 7 PM ET - Loyola is 12-1 at home this season where they average 1.078 PPP compared to 0.972 on the road. Going back to last season they’ve won 19 of their last 20 home games. They’ve been outstanding defensively at home as well allowing 0.934 PPP on 40% shooting giving up only 64 PPG. Their only home loss came back in early January vs VCU who is by far the highest rated team in the A10 (per KenPom) currently sitting with a 20-5 record. The Ramblers have played 2 other top 5 A10 teams here at home and beat them both (St Joes and St Bonnies). St Louis began the conference season winning 5 of their first 6 games but they’ve been heading in the wrong direction for a few weeks now losing 4 of their last 6. They have not been a good team away from home with a 3-6 record both SU and ATS and 2 of their 3 wins came vs Fordham and Richmond, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. They average less than 1.00 PPP on the road (0.985) while allowing nearly 1.10 PPP. Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Billikens coughing it up over 20% of the time in A10 play (dead last) and they’ve turned it over more than 20% in 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight they face a Loyola defense that ranks in the top 100 nationally creating turnovers which should lead to some extra possessions for the Ramblers. We think STL continues their road struggles and Loyola gets the win and cover. | |||||||
02-12-25 | Ole Miss v. South Carolina +5.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#702 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +5.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Ole Miss is in a rough spot here having just come from behind late to win @ LSU and they have a revenge match with arch rival Mississippi State on Saturday. The Rebels had to come from 11 down with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game as a 6 point chalk @ LSU to win by 2 points on a tip in at the buzzer. The final score of 72-70 was the only time that Mississippi led in the second half and that was vs an LSU team that is ranked lower than South Carolina per KenPom. Now the Rebs have to face a South Carolina team that is 0-10 SU in SEC play so don’t be surprised if they aren’t fully focused on this game. They better be because the Gamecocks, despite their record, have been very competitive at home vs the top teams in the SEC. They’ve faced the toughest home schedule in SEC play having already faced the 4 teams in 1st or 2nd place in the conference along with Mississippi State who is ranked 31st nationally per KenPom. The only non-competitive game in that stretch was vs Bama way back on January 8th Since then they lost to Auburn by 3, Texas A&M by 4, Florida by 1, and in OT vs Mississippi State. Just prior to the SEC conference slate the Gamecocks beat Clemson here at home and that’s a Tiger team that just beat Duke and UNC and sits in 2nd place in the ACC. This team is more than capable of pulling off this upset and it’s a perfect situational spot for them to do so. We’ll take the points. | |||||||
02-12-25 | Iowa v. Rutgers -6 | Top | 84-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#686 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -6 over Iowa, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - This Rutgers team can be handicapped really as 2 different teams. One with their star freshman Dylan Harper in the line up (he is projected as a top 5 NBA Draft Pick) and one with him out of the line up. He is back and at 100% and they are much better with him playing at full strength. He had a few games he attempted to play but wasn’t near 100% and only played 10 to 15 minutes. If we look only at games he played significant minutes and was healthy, in those games Rutgers is 4-4 in Big 10 play (5-8 overall Big 10 record) including home wins over Illinois and UCLA. Iowa, on the other hand, is on the other end of the health spectrum. They lost their top big man Freeman (17 PPG & 7 RPG) for the season a week ago and he’s missed the last 2 games (both losses). The Hawkeyes starting PG Thelwell also suffered an ankle injury vs Wisconsin and he didn’t practice this week so he’s very questionable for this game. We’re not sure how much energy Iowa will have left in the tank here. They just lost back to back home games vs Purdue and Wisconsin. They put a lot of energy and effort into that Wisconsin rematch after losing to their rival 116-85 in Madison earlier in the season. Now they go on the road after that disappointing home stand and they’ve been really bad on the road losing 4 of their 5 conference games away from home by double digits. Iowa’s strength is their offense and those numbers drop drastically on the road where they have a -17 PPG margin. Defensively they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and they allowed an average of 95 PPG on the road! This smells like another Iowa double digit road loss so we’ll lay it with Rutgers at one of the tougher home venues in the conference. | |||||||
02-11-25 | Alabama v. Texas +3 | Top | 103-80 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas +3 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Horns have back to back huge home games vs Bama & Kentucky as they sit near the NCAA bubble and need a few big wins down the stretch to make sure they get in. We like the value here and the situation for Texas. The Horns are 3-3 in their last 6 games and those losses were all fairly tight with margins of 3, 8, and 8 points. Of their 7 SEC losses, 5 have come by 8 points or less. They are facing a Bama team that has won 6 in a row and 9 of their 10 SEC games. The Tide seem to be a bit overvalued right now as they are laying -5 in this game @ Texas (opening number) and they were just +1.5 @ Mississippi State less than 2 weeks ago. That’s an MSU team that is ranked pretty much dead even with Texas in most metrics (KenPom, Haslam, etc…). We’re getting a 6.5 point swing from less than 2 weeks ago and the situation highly favors Texas with Bama facing arch rival Auburn (#1 and #2 in the AP Poll) coming up on Saturday. That game is already being discussed as one of the bigger games in the state of Alabama’s history. A lookahead spot for the Tide who haven’t been all that dominant on the road in SEC play. Since winning @ South Carolina (worst team in the SEC with 0-10 record) by 20 back in early January, Bama’s last 4 conference road wins have come by margins of 6, 5, 4, and 4 points. When facing the 2 highest rated teams in the SEC (per KenPom) at home this season, Auburn & Tennessee, the Longhorns took them to the wire losing by 5 and 4 points. This is a much more important game for Texas and we’re most likely into for another tight game. The Horns get one of the key players, Tramon Mark (10 PPG), back here after he missed Saturday’s loss @ Vandy. Take the points as we feel Texas has a decent shot at the upset here. | |||||||
02-11-25 | Purdue v. Michigan -1.5 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
#618 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -1.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Wolverines have been waiting for this rematch since their embarrassing 91-64 loss @ Purdue on January 24th. Michigan’s other 4 losses this season came by margins of 1, 2, 2, and 3 points so their Purdue setback was by far their worst of the season. The Boilers shot 55% in that home game while averaging just under 1.30 PPP which is well above their season average of 1.18 PPP in Big 10 play. Michigan shot just 37% and averaged 0.90 PPP which is well below their full season average of 1.18 PPP. Purdue jumped out to a 32-11 lead just 10 minutes into the game and things snow balled from there. Now we get the Boilers on the road where their numbers drop off drastically. They are 5-0 on the road in Big 10 play, however those wins have come vs Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington, Iowa, and Oregon with the first 4 listed being the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference per KenPom and the Ducks are currently just 5-8 in league play. An easy road schedule to say the least. Even with that, the Boilermakers average just 71 PPG on the road (85 PPG at home) on 1.068 PPP compared to 1.217 at home. Michigan is undefeated at home this season (11-0 record) winning by an average of +20 PPG. The Wolverines are shooting 51% overall, 39% from 3, and averaging 1.162 PPP on their home court. A win here vaults them over Purdue into 1st place in the Big 10. The Wolves strength on offense is inside the arc with two very good 7 footers (Wolf & Goldin) where they rank 5th nationally in 2 point FG% at 60%. That happens to be Purdue’s defensive weakness ranking 285th in 2 point defense. Michigan defensively ranks in the top 40 in both 3 point and 2 point FG% while ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. We don’t see Purdue duplicating their red hot shooting in this rematch and we like Michigan to get the win and cover. | |||||||
02-09-25 | Xavier +3 v. Villanova | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#847 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +3 over Villanova, Sunday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January with XU winning by 6 despite Nova shooting better from the field. The Wildcats have not played well since mid January going 2-5 SU over their last 7 games. They are just 2-2 at home since January 10th with losses to Georgetown and Creighton and their 2 wins were both by 2 points vs Providence and UConn. There only 2 comfortable wins in Big East play were vs Seton Hall and DePaul, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. During that same span, Xavier has kicked it into high gear and won 5 of their last 7 games. Their only losses during that stretch came on the road in OT vs first place St John’s and @ Creighton who has now won 9 straight games. The Musketeers also have an impressive win @ Marquette during this run. Since January 10th, Xavier ranks as the 32nd best team in the nation and the 3rd best in the Big East behind only St Johns & Creighton (per Bart Torvik Analytics). Nova ranks as the 7th best team in the conference during that stretch. The Cats love to shoot the 3 and they do it well ranking #1 in the Big East in 3 point FG% and percentage of points from deep. However, XU matches up perfectly defensively with this Villanova offense as they rank #1 in the Big East defending the arc allowing just 30%. XU is no slouch from beyond the arc either hitting almost 39% on the year good for 17th nationally. They outscored Villanova from deep in the first meeting (10 three’s made to 8) and if they do that again it will be very tough for the Wildcats to win this game as Nova relies so heavily in the triple and they do not get to the FT line (320th in percentage of points from the charity stripe). This has been a tightly contested series with each of the last 6 meetings decided by 8 or fewer points with 4 of those coming by 4 points or less. We expect a tight one in Philly on Sunday so we’ll grab the points with Xavier. | |||||||
02-08-25 | North Dakota v. UMKC -3 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
#774 ASA PLAY ON UMKC -3 over North Dakota, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UMKC has lost 8 straight games after winning their first 2 in Summit League play yet they are still a favorite of more than a possession here which should tell you something. Their last 7 losses have come by margins of 7, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6 and 6 points so they’ve been really close to breaking through. Five of those eight games were on the road and their 3 home games during that stretch were vs the top 3 teams in the Summit (South Dakota State, St Thomas, and North Dakota State). Those are the only 3 teams in the conference that rank inside the top 200 per KenPom and despite losing those 3 games, UMKC took them all to the wire losing by 1, 3, and 6 points. Now they finally get a shot at a low level conference team at home and we think the Roos will take care of business here. In their other 2 games vs lower level Summit opponents at home they won by 14 vs South Dakota and by 23 vs Oral Roberts. The get a North Dakota team that is 2-9 on the road this season losing by an average score of 82-73. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a road loss on Thursday @ Omaha in a game they shot 54% overall (their season average is 43%), 56% from beyond the arc (their season average is 32%), and 80% from the foul line (they average 71%) and still lost. Now they are facing a very solid UMKC defense that ranks 2nd in conference play in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. On the other end of the court, North Dakota is terrible defensively ranking 349th nationally in defensive efficiency, 362nd in eFG% allowed, and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. In the first meeting in mid January, North Dakota shot 47% (41% for UMKC) and made 6 more FT’s but won by just 4 points (game was tied with 1:00 minute remaining). We like UMKC to break their losing streak and pick up a win and cover on Saturday. | |||||||
02-08-25 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#664 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +4.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU is playing their best basketball of the season winning 4 in a row including 2 road games @ Iowa State and @ Arizona State. Going back even further, they’ve played above their efficiency expectations in 6 of their last 7 games (per Haslam Metrics). This is a very dangerous team right now and this is their biggest game of the year. They lost by 10 points @ Kansas and the Jayhawks shot 55% from the field in that win. We don’t expect that here from a KU team that already has 4 road losses while shooting just 43% overall and 30% from deep on the road this season. The Jayhawks actually have a losing record in true road games this season (3-4 SU) and their 3 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 per KenPom. KU has lost 5 of their last 7 games ATS while KSU has covered 7 in a row. There is a lot of talent on this KSU team with big time transfers McDaniel (from Michigan), Hawkins (from Illinois), and Hausen (from Villanova) and they are finally all starting to mesh as a team. The Cats are always sky high for their home game vs KU and they’ve won outright each of the last 2 seasons here as a dog. They are 7-3 ATS this year as a home dog and we think they have a decent shot to pull another home upset vs the Jayhawks. Take the points. | |||||||
02-06-25 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
#794 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tonight OSU has a chance to avenge their worst loss of the Big 10 season which came @ Maryland back on December 4th. The final score of that game was 83-59 with the Terps winning easily. The Buckeyes other 5 losses in conference play have come by a total of 20 points or an average of just -4 PPG. The Terps have been a poor road team this season with a 2-4 record with their 2 wins coming @ Indiana by 1 point on a last second 3 point shot and @ Illinois when the Illini were dealing with injuries and were also dealing with the flu at the same time. Maryland ranks 353rd in Haslem Metrics away efficiency stat and defensively they allow 1.044 PPP on the road compared to 0.833 at home. They already have Big 10 road losses @ Oregon, @ Northwestern, and @ Washington, who all currently have losing records in conference play and combine for an 11-22 SU Big 10 record. The Buckeyes have won 3 of their last 4 games, including a win @ Purdue, and they sit squarely on the NCAA bubble. They are in must win mode, especially at home, and they’ve won 4 straight at home vs the Terps. We’ll lay the small number in this one. | |||||||
02-05-25 | Missouri +9.5 v. Tennessee | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
#705 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +9.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Vols who played a huge revenge game on Saturday hosting Florida who beat them by 30 points earlier in the year. The Vols got their revenge rolling the Gators by 20 points holding Florida to 0.69 PPP and just 4 of 27 from beyond the arc. It was actually Tennessee’s 3rd huge game in a row after losing to Auburn and Kentucky prior to getting back on track Saturday. They played that game without PG Ziegler as he’s having knee issues. It looks like he’ll be back here but not 100%. Not much is being said about Missouri but the Tigers have been sneaky good this season. They are coming off a blowout 27 point road win @ Mississippi State and they also topped Florida on the road this year giving the Gators their only home loss. Not only is that Florida’s only home loss, they’ve dominated teams at home (besides Mizzou) winning every other game by at least 18 points. The Tigers are 17-4 on the season and they only team to beat them by double digits was #1 Auburn on the road a game Missouri lost by 16. In SEC play Mizzou has better PPP margins (per 100 possessions) and they are 5-2 ATS as a dog this season covering vs high level opponents including Auburn, Kansas, Florida, and Illinois. Too many points here in a game we expect will be close throughout. | |||||||
02-05-25 | Cincinnati v. UCF -2.5 | 93-83 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
#722 ASA PLAY ON Central Florida -2.5 over Cincinnati, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ll take another shot with UCF tonight. We were on them Saturday here at home vs BYU and they came up short losing by 6. BYU shot 11% better than UCF from the field and 13% better from beyond the arc in that game. It was tight throughout with each team’s largest lead being 7 points. Now we’re getting UCF with a similar spread at home (-3 open and -1.5 vs BYU) but the Cougars are much better than this Cincinnati team. We’re getting some solid value on the host here. As we mentioned in our analysis on Saturday, the Golden Knights have been playing well, just struggling to get over the hump. Their last 5 losses have all come vs top 30 teams and 3 of those were vs top 10 teams (per KenPom). And 4 of those losses came by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points. Their win during that stretch was a blowout 28 point win over TCU and their opponent tonight, Cincinnati, is much closer to TCU than the other teams UCF has been losing to. The Bearcats are struggling to say the least. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games with 5 of those 8 setbacks coming by double digits. They just lost by 13 at home vs a WVU team that had lost 5 of their previous 7 prior to Sunday’s win @ Cincy. The Bearkats now make a quick turnaround on the road after playing on Sunday while UCF is still at home and played a day earlier on Saturday. The Golden Knights have played the #1 strength of schedule in the Big 12 play (Cincy #8 SOS) and yet they have a better conference record (4-6 compared to 2-8 for the Bearcats) and they have better efficiency margins in league play. UCF finally gets to play a lower half Big 12 team (they’ve only played 1 since January 8th and rolled TCU) and we think they take advantage and pick up a home win and cover tonight. | |||||||
02-05-25 | Troy State +1.5 v. James Madison | 61-64 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
#701 ASA PLAY ON Troy +1.5 over James Madison, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Troy is rated by KenPom as the 2nd best team in the Sun Belt at this point of the season behind only Arkansas State. The Trojans are 8-3 in the league and their 3 losses have come by a combined 8 points and they led by double digits on 2 of those setbacks. They’ve shown they can get it done on the road with a 3-1 record away from home in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming @ South Alabama by 1 point. JMU is on a nice 4 game winning streak but those opponents all sit near the bottom of the conference power rankings (ODU twice, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State). Versus upper tier teams in conference play the Dukes are just 2-4 SU with their 2 wins coming by 3 & 5 points. Troy has much better efficiency numbers in conference play outscoring opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions while JMU is outscoring their opponents by 1 point per 100 possessions. Troy has better conference PPP numbers both on offense and defense and they are 2nd in the league at creating turnovers. The Trojans also rank #1 in the Sun Belt in assists per FG made while the Dukes rank 14th. Troy is simply the better team and they have a winning road record on the season. | |||||||
02-04-25 | Boise State v. UNLV +3.5 | Top | 71-62 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
#666 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +3.5 over Boise St, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - UNLV is in must win mode at home after losing 4 straight games to go from 5-2 in MWC play to 5-6. However, all of those games went to the wire with a 2 point loss vs Wyoming, 2 point loss vs New Mexico, 5 point loss @ Utah State and a 6 point loss @ Nevada. In their loss @ Nevada on Saturday, the game was tied with just over 1:00 minute to go and the Wolfpack scored the final 6 points of the game. Prior to their losing streak the Rebels beat San Diego State on the road and Utah State at home, 2 of the top 3 rated teams in the Mountain West per KenPom. Versus the top 3 teams in the league (SDSU, New Mexico, and Utah State) the Rebels are 2-2 and their losses have come by 2 and 5 points. This team has shown they can beat anyone in this conference and we like them to knock off Boise tonight. The Broncos are 0-3 vs those top 3 teams and they haven’t been great on the road with a 2-4 record and their wins came by 2 points @ San Jose State and by 9 points @ Wyoming, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. They are ranked 358th out of 364 teams in road efficiency per Haslam Metrics and they have a negative point differential in their 9 games away from home (road and neutral). UNLV is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this season and 7-0 ATS in that role since the start of last season. We’ll call for the Rebels to get the much needed home win on Tuesday. | |||||||
02-04-25 | Marquette +3 v. St. John's | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
#601 ASA PLAY ON Marquette +3 over St Johns, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We like the Golden Eagles to bounce back after losing at home vs UConn on Saturday. The Huskies won that game 77-69 and looking at the stats it was amazing Marquette was even able to keep it that close. UConn shot 60% overall and 63% from 3 point range. Marquette shot 40% overall, 32% from deep, and missed 10 FT’s yet it was still a 6 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Marquette missed 7 shots in the last minute alone. Just one of those nights. They’ve done a great job of bouncing back off a loss as the Golden Eagles have only lost consecutive games twice since the start of the 2022 season, a span of 95 games. This year they’ve won each of their 3 games following a loss by double digits. St John’s is 19-3 overall and 10-1 in the Big East but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in conference play. They’ve won 8 straight games since losing to Creighton back on December 31st but none of those wins have come vs the top 4 teams in conference play. Their only game vs a top 4 team (per KenPom ratings) in league play this entire season was a loss to Creighton. Not only that, many of those wins at home were tight beating Providence by 2, Xavier in OT, Georgetown by 5, and Butler by 8. The Johnnies thrive on creating turnovers that lead to extra possessions but that will be tough here vs a Marquette team that is very strong at the guard position and ranks #1 nationally in offensive turnover percentage. St Johns opponents have turned the ball over at a 20%+ clip in 4 of their last 5 games and that won’t happen here. The Johnnies are a poor shooting team ranking 10th in the Big East in eFG% and dead last in 3 point FG% in league play at 24%. They also make less than 70% of their FT’s. Marquette’s defense is off a poor showing but for the season they are very high level (16th nationally in efficiency) so they match up well with St John’s. The Golden Eagles have won 6 straight in this series and we expect a close game here so we’ll take the points. | |||||||
02-01-25 | Washington State v. San Francisco -5 | Top | 51-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
#808 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -5 over Washington State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Nice revenge spot here for USF after losing by 11 @ Washington State in early January. The Cougs shot 49% (USF shot 42%) and hit 37% of their triples (USF shot 30%). The thing that stood out most from that box score was Washington State attempted and made 18 more FT’s than San Fran and still only won by 11. That doesn’t match up with the season long stats of these 2 teams as USF actually attempts 21 FT’s per game while Wazzu attempts just 19. We expect those numbers to even out or even push to the Dons favor at home tonight. SF is a perfect 13-0 at home this season winning by an average score of 80-64. They’ve won 11 of those 13 home games by more than tonight’s spread which is currently -5. WSU is on a tough stretch right now playing some of their worst basketball of the season falling short of their expected efficiency numbers in 5 of their last 7 games. Since January 4th the Cougars have a 2-5 record with their only wins during that stretch coming vs San Diego and Portland, 2 of the 3 lowest teams in the WCC. The other team in that trio of lowest rated teams, Pacific, beat Wazzu twice during that stretch including on Thursday night. Now the Cougars have to travel again (their 3rd road game in the last 4) and play a very good team on the road just 48 hours after losing @ Pacific. They haven’t been a very good road team with a 3-4 record and Haslem Metrics has WSU ranked 306th on the road in their home vs road metric. USF ranks 28th in that same metric at home. We like San Fran to win and cover this game at home staying perfect on their home court. | |||||||
02-01-25 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State -11 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
#614 ASA PLAY ON Appalachian State -11 over Georgia State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We expect a huge bounce back from a App State team that just lost at home on Wednesday night as a double digit favorite. In that 1-point loss vs Old Dominion, the Monarchs shot 49% overall and 43% from deep, well above their season averages of 40% and 28% respectively. And that was vs a very good defensive team in App State who 18th nationally in eFG% allowed and 8th nationally in 3 point FG% allowed. ODU was the first team in Sun Belt play to top 70 points vs the Mountaineers. Just an aberration in our opinion and we can expect App State to be very focused here, especially on the defensive end. Not only do we catch ASU in a good spot, we are getting Georgia State in a great fade situation after they pulled off an upset @ Marshall on Thursday night as a double digit dog. Similar to ODU vs App State, the Panthers shot WAY above their averages vs Marshall in that Thursday night win. Georgia State hit a ridiculous 62% of their shots and 50% of their triples. They average 43% and 32% on the season. Prior to that upset win, GSU was 0-7 on the road this season with 6 of those losses coming by at least 14 points. In their other road games vs top 5 teams in the Sun Belt (per KenPom) the Panthers lost @ Troy by 20 and @ Arkansas State by 26. App State ranks as the 3rd best team in the conference so similar competition to Troy and Arkansas State. Huge defensive edge for App State here as they rank 63rd nationally in defensive efficiency while Ga State ranks 323rd. The Panthers also rank dead last in the Sun Belt in eFG% defense and are getting outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions in league play (ASU is outscoring their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions). The Mountaineers have an extra day to prepare for this one after playing on Wednesday compared to Ga State on Thursday and we like the host to win big here. | |||||||
01-29-25 | St. Mary's v. Santa Clara +4.5 | Top | 67-54 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
#726 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara +4.5 over St Mary’s, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - St Mary’s is officially overvalued after winning 8 straight games. They are in a difficult situational spot after playing @ Washington State on Saturday and now on the road again tonight. Not only that, but it’s also the Gaels 4th road game in their last 5 games and they have their biggest home game of the year on Saturday hosting Gonzaga. They are 8-0 in WCC play but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in the conference and have not played any of the top 4 rated teams in the league (per KenPom) until tonight. STM’s road wins in conference play prior to beating Wazzou on Saturday came @ Portland, @ San Diego, and @ Pepperdine, 3 of the 4 worst teams in the WCC. Their 80-75 win over Washington State on Saturday was impressive but the Gaels also needed to overcome a double digit 2nd half deficit. In that tight win, St Mary’s shot 57% overall, 41% from 3 and 93% from the FT line, way above their season averages of 46%, 34%, and 70% respectively yet still needed a solid comeback late to win that game. Santa Clara is 6-3 in WCC play but they’ve faced the much more difficult schedule already facing San Francisco twice, Oregon State twice, Washington State, and Gonzaga. That 6 games vs the top 6 teams in the league while St Mary’s has played 2 such games (vs Wash St and San Francisco). The Broncos are coming off a loss @ Oregon State on Saturday but back home where they are 4-0 vs WCC opponents this season including a 28 point win over Washington State and a 23 point win over San Francisco. And let’s not forget Santa Clara’s road win @ Gonzaga just a week and half ago. The Broncos are the better shooting team (FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%) and this is their biggest game of the season at home. St Mary’s has been coasting vs mainly lower tier competition and this will be their toughest game since losing at home vs Utah State on Dec 22. With the Zags on deck for St Mary’s we see a letdown spot and Santa Clara pulling the upset. | |||||||
01-29-25 | Texas v. Ole Miss -6 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
#732 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -6 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for the Rebels. They are coming off 3 straight losses and they catch Texas off a 22 point come from behind home win over rival Texas A&M. The 3 straight losses for Ole Miss, who had won 9 of their previous 10 prior, came @ Mississippi State in OT, at home by 1 point vs A&M in a game the Rebs led by double digits in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with under 25 seconds remaining, and then @ Missouri on Saturday by 8. In their loss @ Mizzou, the Tigers made 11 threes in that game (6 for Ole Miss) and made 28 FT’s to 13 for the Rebels. That means from the 3 point line + free throws, Missouri had a +30 point advantage and still only won by 8 points at home. This is one of the top teams in the SEC and extra hungry for a home win (9-1 at home) after 3 straight setbacks. Texas comes in and might be physically and emotionally spent after their win over A&M on Saturday. They trailed 51-29 with 17 minutes remaining in the game and expended a massive amount of energy to get back in the game and win on a shot with only a few seconds remaining. They made 11 more FT’s than the Aggies and still needed late heroics to win that game. Texas played that game without 2 of their top 6 rotation guys, which was impressive, but made that comeback even more draining on this game. Arthur Kaluma (14 PPG & 8 RPG) and Chendall Weaver (7 PPG & 5 RPG) were both out of the line up on Saturday and it looks like Weaver definitely won’t play here and Kaluma is questionable at best. The Horns have played 3 conference road games beating Oklahoma on the road by 4 and getting blown out by 20+ points @ Florida and @ A&M. Ole Miss has played the tougher strength of schedule this season and they have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively. Their defense ranks 10th nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers at the 6th highest rate in college basketball. You think Ole Miss coach Chris Beard wants this one a little more than any other game they’ve played? He was canned by Texas after the 2021/22 season. He led the Horns to a 22-12 record that season including a win in the NCAA tourney but was fired because of a domestic abuse charge. The spot doesn’t get much better for Ole Miss and we’ll lay it. | |||||||
01-28-25 | South Carolina v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#620 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -7.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has lost 4 straight games with 3 of those losses coming vs teams rated in the top 6 nationally per KenPom. 3 of those 4 games were on the road and their lone home game was a 2 point loss vs Auburn, the #1 team in the country. That was UGA’s only home loss of the season. Their most recent loss on Saturday @ Florida was an embarrassing effort and by far their worst loss of the season (89-59 final) giving the Bulldogs some extra incentive for this one. After that rough stretch of opponents, the Bulldogs are happy to be back home and facing the lowest rated team in the conference, South Carolina who sits with an 0-7 record in the SEC. The Gamecocks have been fairly competitive at home but on the road they’ve lost 2 of their 3 games by 20+ points. They are in a really rough situational spot here coming off 2 down to the wire SEC home losses including an OT setback vs Mississippi State on Saturday. After expending lots of energy (both physical and emotional) in those 2 home games only to come up short in both, we wouldn’t be surprised if SC doesn’t have much left in the tank for this one. The Gamecocks offense has been really poor in SEC play averaging just 61 PPG and ranking dead last in offensive efficiency. Facing a UGA defense that ranks 20th nationally in defensive efficiency won’t be much help for this offense. SC also turns the ball over more than any other team in the conference (24% turnover rate). Georgia’s 2 home wins in the SEC have come vs Kentucky and Oklahoma, both much better teams than South Carolina, and the Dogs beat both those teams by double digits. Georgia is a good team in desperation mode and we look for another double digit home win on Tuesday. | |||||||
01-26-25 | Maryland v. Indiana +3.5 | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#838 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Needless to say IU is in a must win spot here at home. Following this game the Hoosiers go on a stretch that includes Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, and UCLA in their next 5 games. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and we’re catching some value with them because of that. They should also have some added incentive as their last home game was a 94-69 loss vs Illinois. An embarrassing effort and now they get a chance to redeem themselves in front of their home crowd. After that loss, the Hoosiers did travel to Ohio State and pick up a win as a dog and then lost @ Northwestern on Wednesday in a game they led at half but allowed the Cats to roll up 54 points in the 2nd half. Head coach Mike Woodson has stressed that defensive collapse this week and we look for a solid effort on that end of the court from the Hoosiers. IU got NBA prospect Reneau (13 PPG & 6 RPG) back in the line up @ Northwestern after missing 5 straight games. He was a bit rusty but now with a game under his belt we expect him to be more involved on Sunday. The Hoosiers are catching Maryland off a huge upset @ Illinois on Thursday (IU with an extra day having played on Wednesday) and now on the road again a few days later. In that blowout win @ Illinois one of the Illini’s top players, big man Ivisic (13 PPG & 8.5 RPG) was announced out just prior to game time with an illness. The Illini didn’t respond well and Maryland ran them off the court hitting 50% of their shots for the game. That sets this one up nicely situation wise along with pushing this number higher than it should be in our opinion. Prior to that win, the Terps were 0-4 in true road games this year including losing 2 of those games as a favorite (@ Washington and @ NW). Despite their loss most recent home loss vs Illinois, the Hoosiers are still 11-1 SU at home this season. This one is tight in our opinion so we’ll take the points with the home team. | |||||||
01-25-25 | Miami-FL v. California -9 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
#796 ASA PLAY ON California -9 over Miami FL, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We were on Stanford over Miami on Wednesday night and picked up an easy win with the Cardinal winning 88-51. As we stated on Wednesday, it looks like the Canes have already packed it in for the season. They have now lost 14 of their last 15 games and since their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December, they haven’t won a game (0-7 SU). Miami’s last 3 losses have come by margins of 35, 43, and 37 points and their only single digit loss since January 1st was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC. They are not only losing, they aren’t even coming close to covering on many nights and their season spread record is now 3-16 ATS. They face a Cal team that has some solid momentum after back to back wins including topping a solid Florida State team by 9 points on Wednesday. Not only did they win that game (as a dog), they did so with their leading scorer, Stojakovic (19 PPG), out due to illness. It looks like he’ll be back here and the Bears should be at full strength. Cal’s offense has been very efficient this season (top 75 in offensive efficiency) and they are averaging 80 PPG at home. That should continue tonight facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 343rd in scoring defense allowing 80 PPG. The Canes are only averaging 64 PPG on the road and they’ve been held to 54 or less in their last 2 road games. Looks like blowout potential here with Cal. We’ll lay it. | |||||||
01-25-25 | Connecticut v. Xavier -1.5 | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
#790 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Xavier has been playing really well as they try to get themselves back into NCAA tourney consideration (12-8 overall record). They have won 3 of their last 4 games, including upsetting Marquette on the road. Their 1 loss during that stretch was in OT on Wednesday @ St Johns, who is in first place in the Big East with an 8-1 record, and XU held a 16 point 2nd half lead in that game. The Musketeers led that game by 10 at half and St Johns led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half before the game went to OT. Xavier ranks 91st nationally in Haslam’s Momentum metric since January 1st while UConn ranks 305th. The Huskies simply aren’t playing well right now. They are 6-2 in Big East play but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the conference (9th SOS out of 11 – Xavier has played the #1 SOS in Big East play) yet only 1 of their wins has come by more than 8 points. Their last 2 games were both at home where they lost to Creighton and squeaked by Butler 80-78 in OT. UConn’s defense has not been good this year (ranked 132nd in efficiency) and their 3 point defense has been really poor, ranking 341st in the country. That’s not a good match up for this Xavier team that hits over 38% of their triples which is good for 23rd best in the nation. These 2 met already this season in December and XU took the Huskies to OT on the road before losing 94-89. The Musketeers took Connecticut to the wire on the road in that game despite missing leading scorer & rebounder Zack Freemantle (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and he is back in the line up and has been playing very well. We expect XU to have a solid edge from the 3 point line again as they make almost 42% of their triples. We also look for them to have a plus margin at the FT line as UConn fouls a lot (opponents scoring 25% of their points from the FT line in Big East play which is dead last for the Huskies defense) and XU makes 78% of their freebies. This revenger sets up nicely and we’ll lay this small number. | |||||||
01-25-25 | Middle Tennessee v. Louisiana Tech -3 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
#762 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -3 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - La Tech is 3-4 in CUSA play and MTSU is in 1st place at 5-1 yet the Bulldogs are a 3 point favorite in this game. Read the market as they say which is telling us La Tech is the right side here and we agree. While LT hasn’t won a conference road game yet, they are a perfect 3-0 at home in CUSA play and they’ve already topped the 1st (Liberty) and 4th (Western Kentucky) rated teams in the league (per KenPom) by 5 and 10 points respectively here in Ruston. Sandwiched in between those 2 impressive wins were 2 points losses @ Jacksonville State and @ Kennesaw State, who both sit tied for 2nd place in the conference. As we mentioned MTSU is in 1st place in the league and they are 2-1 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins came vs FIU, by far the lowest rated team in the conference, and vs Sam Houston State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the conference. Their win over SHSU was on Thursday night and it was down to the wire with the Blue Raiders winning 77-75. In that game SHSU missed a layup as time expired which would have sent the game to OT. Middle Tennessee shot a 47% in that win (43% for Sam Houston) and they made 12 of 26 triples for 46% which was well above their season average of 32% (219th in 3 point FG%). Even with that, this one came to the wire vs a lower tier CUSA team. That won’t happen again in this game as La Tech ranks 25th nationally defending the arc allowing just 29%. The Bulldogs are much better than their 3-4 conference record (La Tech is rated 3rd best team in the league per KenPom) and they are in a must win spot at home if they want to have a chance to move up toward the top of the CUSA standings. Tech also has some extra incentive here as they finished 22-10 last year but were surprisingly knocked out of the Conference USA tourney by this MTSU team who finished 14-19 last season. Let’s lay it with the home team. | |||||||
01-25-25 | St. Louis v. George Washington +1 | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
#648 ASA PLAY ON George Washington +1 over St Louis, Saturday at 2 PM ET - GW in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses. 2 of those were road losses, including an OT setback vs George Mason who is 6-1 in the A10, and then a home loss to a red hot Duquesne team. The Revolutionaries were 9-0 at home prior to their Duquesne setback and we look for them to get back on track here. St Louis steps in having won 3 in a row but this team has not been impressive on the road this season. The Billikens were 0-3 SU on the road entering conference play and they have won 2 A10 road games but those game @ Fordham and @ Richmond, the 2 worst teams ni the conference who have a combined league record of 2-10. The one good team the played on the road in A10 play was @ VCU and St Louis lost that game by 16 points. They Billikens rank 247th in Haslam Metrics home vs road category while GW ranks 69th at home in that metric. St Louis relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (40th nationally in percentage of points from deep) but they are running into a very good 3 point defense here as the Revolutionaries rank 30th nationally allowing opponents to make only 29% from beyond the arc. GW should also get a number of extra possessions creating turnovers ranking in the top 70 in the country creating giveaways on 19% of opponents possessions while STL turns it over a lot (247th in offensive turnover percentage). George Washington is a bit weak on the boards but that shouldn’t hinder them in this game as the Billikens are as well ranking 327th in offensive rebounding percentage. St Louis has two huge home games on deck next week vs VCU and Dayton (the 2 highest rated teams in the conference) so they might be peaking ahead to those games. They are also playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 games and we think they get beat here. We’ll take George Washington at home. | |||||||
01-24-25 | Penn State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#890 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -2.5 over Penn State, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re catching Iowa at the bottom of the market here as they are coming off 3 straight losses including a setback vs Minnesota on Tuesday night. Because of that we’re getting the Hawkeyes at a cheap price at home tonight in a must win game. They lost @ USC and @ UCLA, which wasn’t surprising, leading into their poor performance vs the Gophers. In their 72-67 loss vs Minnesota, the Hawks made only 3 of 21 triples (14%) and averaged just 1.00 PPP. Those numbers were WAY down from their season averages of 38.7% from 3 which is 15th best nationally and 1.19 PPP which is 19th best nationally. We expect a bounce back from a team that is 10-2 at home (only other loss was vs #3 Iowa State) as they have been very solid at home shooting 53% from the field, 40% from deep, while averaging 91 PPG. They are facing a PSU team coming off a home win over Rutgers earlier this week, but the Nittany Lions are 0-3 SU on the road in Big 10 play and just 2-11 SU on the road in conference play since the start of last season. In their road games, Penn State’s numbers have dropped off drastically scoring 14 fewer points while shooting a lower percentage overall and from 3 point range. The Nits will also be without a key player, starter Puff Johnson (10 PPG and 5 RPG) who won’t play in this one due to an injury. Iowa was favored by 9 here last year and now we’re getting them at just -3. Take the Hawkeyes to win and cover at home. | |||||||
01-23-25 | North Carolina A&T +12.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#781 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina A&T +12.5 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - North Carolina A&T is 0-7 SU on CAA play which is why this number is set higher than it should be according to our power ratings. Despite their losses, they’ve been competitive in conference play with all of their losses coming by 11 points or less. Towson, on the other hand, is 10-9 on the season but they do not have a single win the entire season by more than 11 points (vs D1 opponents) and their lone 11 point win came in OT. Their average margin in CAA play this season is +3.8 points. The Tigers have been favored by double digits just twice this season and failed to cover both games winning each by just 4 points. Both of those teams, Morgan State & Stony Brook, are rated lower than this A&T team per KenPom. Towson is a poor offensive team averaging just 66 PPG while ranking 350th in FG% and 327th in 3 point FG%. Tough to cover big numbers when you’re a poor shooting team that struggles to score points. NC A&T is by no means a great team but they do a few things well that should keep them close here including not turning the ball over (5th nationally in offensive turnover rate). When comparing the Aggies to Towson, they shoot a better overall percentage, a higher 3 point FG% and FT%. They average 74 PPG on the season and have scored at least 63 in all but 2 games. If A&T gets to that number here, that should be enough to cover this lofty number. Towson has won 4 straight games (overvalued) and they have a rematch with Northeastern on deck. Don’t be surprised if they overlook this winless conference team that we think will give them a battle. Take the points. | |||||||
01-22-25 | Miami-FL v. Stanford -10 | Top | 51-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
#748 ASA PLAY ON Stanford -10 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - It looks like Miami may have thrown in the towel. The Canes have lost 13 of their last 14 games and just lost 117-74 at HOME vs SMU. Their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December and since he left the team they’ve lost 6 in a row with 5 of those losses coming by double digits. Their only non 10 point plus loss during that stretch was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC. Not only are they not winning, they aren’t covering with a spread record of 3-15 ATS on the season which is the 2nd worst mark in college basketball. They continue to play without their leading scorer Nijel Pack who has missed the last 8 games due to an injury. This is a tough spot for a struggling team making the long travel west for the first time this year and playing a game at 11 PM ET. Stanford has some really solid momentum coming off a win @ North Carolina on Saturday. The Cardinal have won 3 of their last 4 games and they have a 4-3 record in ACC play despite playing only 2 home conference games thus far, both double digit wins. They are 9-1 overall at home with 7 of those wins coming by 10+ points. Stanford is facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 338th in scoring defense allowing 79 PPG. The Cardinal average 80 PPG at home and should top that number facing by far the worst defense they’ve seen in ACC play. Miami goes down big again. | |||||||
01-22-25 | Murray State v. Southern Illinois | Top | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
#717 ASA PLAY ON Murray State Pick'em over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for Murray State (rated the 4th best team in the MVC) coming off back to back losses. They lost @ UIC in 2 OT’s and then ran into a red hot Bradley team, who currently has a 16-3 record, in a home loss on Saturday. In that loss on Saturday vs Bradley, the Braves shot 53% overall, 39% from deep, and made 89% of their FT’s The Racers have been very good on the road this season already topping both Drake and Northern Iowa (ranked #1 and #3 in the Missouri Valley). Metrically (Haslam Metrics) has Murray State rated as the 20th best road team in the nation. They average more PPG, shoot a higher FG%, and a higher 3 point FG% on the road this year when compared to their home stats. They are taking on a Southern Illinois team that has won 3 straight but 2 of those wins came vs Missouri State who sits at 0-9 in conference play and one of those wins was in OT. SIU already has 3 home losses this season including 2 in MVC play. The Salukis have played the easier conference slate (only faced 1 of the top 4 teams thus far) yet Murray State (faced each of the top 3 teams) has better league efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. The Racers also get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points from the stripe #1 in the MVC) and SIU does not (14% of their points from the FT line – last in the league). When the Salukis do rarely get to the line, they only make 62% in league play (Murray State makes 73%). We like the better team in a bounce back spot to win this game on the road. | |||||||
01-21-25 | Missouri v. Texas -2 | Top | 53-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas -2 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Longhorns are in desperate need of a conference win as they sit at 1-4 in SEC play. They’ve had a really rough schedule to start the season already having faced Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M, 4 of the top 5 rated teams in the league. In their home games vs Auburn (#2 nationally per KenPom) and Tennessee (#6 nationally per KenPom) the Horns were extremely competitive losing by 5 & 4 points respectively. Missouri, on the other hand, sits at 4-1 in league play but they’ve already faced the 3 lowest rated teams in the SEC (Vandy, LSU and Arkansas). They do have an impressive conference win over Florida by 1 point but they were also rolled by 16 points vs Auburn. While we feel Texas is undervalued right now, we also feel that Mizzou is overvalued coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak with 3 of those coming at home. The Tigers have only played 3 true road games this season (1-2 record) and they’ve played all but 3 games this year (out of 18 games) in the state of Missouri. Going back to the start of last season, the Tigers are just 1-11 SU on the road in SEC games and their one win came by a single point. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but they are facing a Texas offense that only turns it over 14% of the time (14th nationally) so that edge should be nullified in this game. The Tigers have also been shooting lights out in SEC play (41% from 3) which isn’t sustainable while Texas (ranked 28th in 3point FG% on the season) has made only 29% in conference play so almost a full 10% points below their season average. We expect both to regress toward their averages which would benefit Texas at home in this one. Very small spread here for the host and we’ll grab the Longhorns. | |||||||
01-21-25 | Dayton v. Duquesne +4 | Top | 82-62 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#624 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +4 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on Duquesne (+1.5) on Saturday over St Bonnies and picked up an easy 18 point outright win with the Dukes. This team continues to be undervalued because their overall record is just 9-9. However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 7-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6. The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early. Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 25th overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics well ahead of the 2nd best team during that stretch which is VCU (53rd). During that stretch they rank 31st nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight Dayton ranks as the 161st best team since December 11th with a 4-4 record during that stretch. Even more recently, since January 1st the Flyers are 1-3 and rank 251st nationally. This team is simply not playing well. Their lone win this month came at home on Saturday vs Loyola Chicago and that game went to OT before Dayton won by 2 points on a half court alley oop play at the buzzer. The Flyers made 12 more FT’s in that game (Loyola only made 9 FT’s and Dayton 21) and it still took OT at home to get a win. Dayton has now lost 7 straight games vs the spread but they continue to be overvalued as a road favorite here vs a team that is simply playing much better than they are right now. Our power rating has Duquesne as a favorite here so we’ll grab the value on the home team. | |||||||
01-19-25 | TCU v. Baylor -12 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber. | |||||||
01-19-25 | Nebraska v. Maryland -9.5 | 66-69 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
#832 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 12 PM ET - The Huskers are in a slump right now losing 3 straight games and their defense during that stretch has been atrocious. They have allowed 97, 104, and 85 points their last 3 games vs Iowa, Purdue, and Rutgers. They’ve been a very poor road team over the years (including this season) but the red flag for this team was losing at home vs Rutgers earlier this week. That broke a 20 game home winning streak vs a Rutgers team that had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and were winless in true road games prior to topping the Huskers. On the road Nebraska has played 3 games in league play and lost by 37, 36, and 10 points and they are just 5-18 SU in Big 10 road games over the last 2+ seasons. This season they average 12 PPG fewer on the road and they shoot 5% lower from 3 point land (just 30% in road games). Maryland is undefeated at home in conference play and their lone home loss was by 4 points vs Marquette back in mid November. The Terps have much better efficiency numbers in conference play as they rank in the top 8 both offensively and defensively while Nebraska ranks 15th and 16th in Big 10 play in those metrics. The Huskers are 1-5 SU @ Maryland and their last 2 losses have come by 22 and 19 points. Win and cover here for the Terps. | |||||||
01-18-25 | Oregon State v. San Francisco -3 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
#818 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Oregon State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Great spot to fade Oregon State here after they pulled a huge home upset in OT over Gonzaga just 48 hours ago. The Beavers shot nearly 60% from the field in that game (Zags shot 42%) yet the game still went to OT. Now they have a quick turnaround on the road where they are 1-3 SU in true road games this season and 3-34 SU their last 37! They face a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 28 home games (8-0 this year) and we’re getting a cheap number here with the Dons. This is Oregon State’s first trip ever to play @ San Francisco which makes it a tough spot as well. The Beavers overall offensive numbers have been very good as they average 1.15 PPP but in their 4 true road games + 3 neutral site games, they’ve been held to 1.03 PPP or lower in 5 of those games. We think they’ll struggle offensive on the road again vs a San Fran defense that allows opponents to shoot just 40% overall and 27% from deep at home while holding opponents to 64 PPG. The Dons average 81 PPG at home this season and we think OSU struggles to keep up here. Lay the small number with San Francisco at home. | |||||||
01-18-25 | LSU v. Texas A&M -11 | 57-68 | Push | 0 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky. The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night. A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG). Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team. With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams. They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits. A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season. LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5. The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12. LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points. Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC. Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom). The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation. That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding. The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight. A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win. We look for the Aggies to win this one going away. | |||||||
01-18-25 | St Bonaventure v. Duquesne +2 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9. However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6. The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early. Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics. During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall. The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days. They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer. The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3. St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here. Take the points. | |||||||
01-17-25 | Indiana v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#886 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -7 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Buckeyes showed some serious fight on Tuesday night getting down by 17 points at half @ Wisconsin and coming back in the 2nd half to only lose by 2. That’s back to back 2 point losses for OSU (Wisconsin & Oregon) and we like them to bounce back with a big effort at home tonight. They are facing an Indiana team that has played only 2 true road games this season, both in conference play, and they lost those games by 25 @ Iowa and by 17 @ Nebraska. IU is just 3-8 SU on the road in Big 10 play since the start of last season and offensively they scored just 62 and 68 points in their 2 road games this season. The Hoosiers are coming off an embarrassing 94-69 loss at HOME on Tuesday vs Illinois in a game they were dominated from start to finish. They are struggling on offense (60 and 69 points their last 2 games) with leading scorer Reneau about to miss his 5th straight game. We think they’ll struggle on that end of the court again tonight vs a OSU defense that ranks in the top 30 on both efficiency and eFG% allowed. At home the Buckeyes are limiting opponents to just 66 PPG and they just held a potent Wisconsin offense (13th nationally in efficiency) to 70 points on the road which is 14 points below their season average. OSU is better on both ends of the court (offensive and defensive efficiency) and if they can get their offense going at home, where they average 86 PPG, Indiana will be in trouble in our opinion. Lay it with Ohio State. | |||||||
01-16-25 | Maryland v. Northwestern +1.5 | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
#836 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +1.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern lost their first home game of the season on Sunday vs a red hot Michigan State team and we expect them to bounce back with a win in this game. MSU shot 50% overall and from 3 point land in that 10 point win while the Cats shot just 36% and only 20% from deep. In that game, NW was a 2-point dog and now we’re getting them in the same range vs a Maryland team that simply isn’t as good as MSU right now and they’ve been poor on the road this season. That loss dropped the Wildcats to 8-1 at home this season and let’s not forget this team beat Illinois here earlier this season. The Terps have played only 3 true road games this season and lost all 3 @ Purdue, @ Washington, and @ Oregon. They’ve played one of the easier strength of schedules in the Big 10 (214th SOS) and vs top 100 teams Maryland has a 3-4 SU record. Northwestern has won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Maryland and the 1 they lost here was in OT. Since the start of last season, NW has been a home dog 5 times and covered 4 of those games. Last year they were favored by 4.5 at home vs Maryland and now a dog so we like the value here. Take the Cats to win outright at home tonight | |||||||
01-16-25 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -8.5 | Top | 85-82 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
#834 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska’s home vs road dichotomy is as drastic as any team in the nation. They are 8-0 at home this year and 2-3 on the road (2-1 in neutral site games). At home the Huskers average 83 PPG (71 PPG on the road), they shoot almost 48% at home (45% on the road), and 35% from 3 at home (30% on the road). The Huskers have now won 20 consecutive home games dating back to last season while Rutgers is 0-3 SU on the road this year and they only win 3 of their last 17 road games. The Knights are a young team with 4 freshmen in the starting line up so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled away from home. Four of their last five losses have come by double digits and they are catching Nebraska in a tough spot with the Huskers coming off 2 straight road losses @ Iowa in OT and @ Purdue. The Huskers are much better defensively (top 25 in defensive efficiency) and they are also better offensively averaging 1.12 PPP compared to 1.10 for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover their last 7 games on the road and we like Nebraska to win this one by double digits. Lay it with the Huskers. | |||||||
01-15-25 | East Tennessee State v. Furman -2.5 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
#718 ASA PLAY ON Furman -2.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a great bounce back spot for Furman at home after they lost by 19 points here on Monday night vs Wofford as a 7-point favorite. It was an embarrassing effort and their first home loss of the season (14-3 record overall). Wofford shot over 40% from deep in that game (13 of 32) while Furman made only 23% of their triples. The Paladins were also destroyed on the boards as Wofford had 20 offensive rebounds in the game gathering a ridiculous 54% of their misses. Veteran head coach Bob Richey (169-73 record at Furman) was visibly disappointed in his press conference and mentioned they came out on their heels and got physically bullied. You can expect them to come out aggressive right out of the gate in this one. Furman’s 3 point defense, which was torched on Monday, has been really solid this season allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from deep (56th nationally) so we look for a much better showing tonight. ETSU is just 2-6 SU on the road this year with their wins coming by 2 points @ Mercer and @ Charlotte, both ranked outside the top 230 per KenPom. Going back further the Buccaneers have won only 7 of their last 29 road games. ETSU has a 10-7 SU record this year despite playing the 327th most difficult schedule so far. Furman has played the much tougher slate to date and the Paladins have better offensive FG% and defensive FG% numbers despite that. We’re also getting some value here because of Furman’s poor performance on Monday as they were favored by 7 in that game vs Wofford who rates 15 spots higher (per KenPom) than ETSU. The Paladins have won 6 straight at home vs the Buccaneers and 9 of the last 10. They’ve also won 32 of their last games overall and they’ve only lost consecutive home games ONCE since the start of the 2015 season. We’ll call for a bounce back effort here with Furman getting the cover. | |||||||
01-14-25 | Missouri v. Florida -10 | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#652 ASA PLAY ON Florida -10 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Missouri has a very good 13-3 record but that’s a bit misleading as they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (300th SOS) which is by far the lowest in the SEC. The Tigers have faced only 3 top 50 teams this season (per KenPom) and lost all 3. The average rating of the 13 teams they’ve beaten this season is 224th. They’ve also played only 2 true road games this season and lost both along with their only neutral site game. All 13 of their wins have come at home. Tonight they face one of the best teams in the country (Gators #6 per KenPom) and they’ve been rolling over teams at home. Florida’s only loss of the season came by 6 points @ Kentucky and they’ve won all of their 7 homes games by at least 18 points. That includes destroying #1 at the time Tennessee by 30 points (we were on Florida in that one) one week ago tonight. The Gators have been great on both ends of the floor ranking in the top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (only 5 teams can say that). They average 86 PPG (7th nationally) and they are facing a Mizzou defense that barely ranks inside the top 100 in FG% allowed and well outside the top 200 in 3 point FG% allowed. Florida should dominate the glass for extra opportunities as they pull down over 41% of their misses (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Missouri struggles on the defensive glass (258th in defensive rebounding). The Tigers have gotten a kind whistle from the refs so far (with 13 home games) which has led to 24% of their points coming from the FT line (14th the most in the country). They won’t get that whistle on the road tonight and we don’t think they can keep up in this one. Another home blowout for Florida. | |||||||
01-11-25 | Cal-Irvine v. UC San Diego -5.5 | Top | 60-52 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
#830 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -5.5 over Cal Irvine, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for a very good UC San Diego team. They are 14-2 on the season and 9 of their 16 games have been played away from home. Both of their losses came in November and they have since won 12 straight games. Cal Irvine is also 14-2 and both of their losses came on the road. Both of these teams are tied atop the Big West with 4-0 conference records. The situation, however heavily favors UC San Diego as UCI will be playing their 5th game in 13 days with 4 of those coming on the road. And going back further, the Anteaters have now played 7 of their last 8 games away from home dating back to December 14th. UCSD, on the other hand, is playing just their 3rd game tonight since December 28th and they’ve been at home for the last week. They just rolled Cal Poly by 27 points at home on Thursday night and they were able to spread out their minutes in the blowout. UCI just played on Thursday night @ Cal State Northridge and picked up a win and now they are playing on the road again just 48 hours later. In their win vs CSUN the Anteaters shot well above their season average from 3 point land (33%) making 44% from deep (CSUN shot 14% from beyond the arc) and made 26 FT’s (CSUN made 17) and that was the difference in the game. We don’t see that happening tonight as UCI faces the highest rated opponent (per KenPom) they’ve seen this season. Last season when these 2 faced off in San Diego, the Tritons were rated 70 spots lower than they are this season (130th last year / 60th this year) and they still topped UCI in that game. UCSD is better across the board offensive (better efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and they’ve been even more impressive at home averaging 89 PPG. San Diego should also have a big advantage in turnover margin in this game which will lead to extra possessions. The Tritons rank 4th nationally in defensive turnover rate (25%) while UCI turns the ball over a lot (281st in offensive turnover rate). On the other end, UCSD only turns the ball over 14% of the time on offense which is the 25th best mark in the nation. We like UC San Diego to get the win and cover here vs what should be a road weary UC Irvine team. | |||||||
01-11-25 | San Francisco v. Santa Clara -3 | Top | 54-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
#776 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara -3 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Quick revenger here for Santa Clara who just lost @ San Francisco in OT on December 30th. San Fran’s largest lead in that game was 5 points while Santa Clara led by double digits in the first half and they led by 4 with just 45 seconds remaining. That was the Broncos only loss in their last 9 games and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Dons have been very solid this season, however on the road they are just 1-2 on the year with their only win coming at Pacific (ranked 282nd per KenPom). In those 3 true road games, SF has shot just 42% while allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. They’ve also allowed 79 PPG in those games which is 12 points above what they allow on the season. Santa Clara is outscoring their opponents by +12 PPG at home and they are averaging 86 PPG here so we expect some solid offensive success for the host. The Broncos beat a very good Oregon State team here at home on Thursday night and they spread their minutes out very nicely with 9 players 10+ minutes. They also have the rest advantage having played just 3 games since playing @ San Francisco including a week off prior to beating Oregon State on Thursday. The Dons have played 4 games since beat Santa Clara and this will be their 5th game in 13 days. The Broncos won this game at home by 7 points last year as a 2.5 point dog and we look for another home win on Saturday. Lay it with Santa Clara. | |||||||
01-11-25 | Bradley v. Illinois-Chicago +2 | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
#678 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +2 over Bradley, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Bradley is coming off a 7 point home loss vs Drake on Wednesday and the Braves have been trending down the last few weeks. Prior to that loss, Bradley had lost 3 straight ATS (now 4 straight) struggling with Missouri State at home and needed OT to beat Valpo and Indiana State prior to that. The Braves started the season red hot from beyond the arc but that was bound to regress. They are still ranked #2 nationally in 3 point FG% (41%) but over their last 4 games they’ve hit 25%, 35%, 32%, and 28% from deep, all well below their season average. UIC has been trending up winning 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Belmont. The same teams that Bradley recently struggled with (Drake & Missouri State), UIC beat Drake by 4 and Mizzou State by 17 over the last few weeks. Despite playing very well as of late, the Flames continue to get no respect from the oddmakers who have tabbed them as underdogs in 6 straight games and they’ve covered all 6 winning 5 of those games outright. The Flames are a very good shooting team ranking in the top 60 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are 5-1 at home this season. We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this flailing Bradley team and this is it. We look for Illinois Chicago to win this game at home. | |||||||
01-09-25 | Northern Colorado v. Montana State | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
#820 ASA PLAY ON Montana State Money Line -110 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Montana State has a 5-10 record to date but they’ve played a very tough schedule with 10 road games, including losses @ Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, @ TCU, and @ USC. They are finally back at home after a month plus on the road (last home game was Dec 7th) and they’ve lost 5 straight games (all on the road). Hungry for a win and back at home with a light spread, we really like this spot for an undervalued Montana State team. Northern Colorado has a 10-5 record, however they’ve played a much easier slate and they’ve played only 1 road game in the last month which was a win @ Denver that ranks 327th per KenPom. The Bears are 2-4 SU on the road this season where their defense has been shaky allowing 81 PPG on over 48% shooting by their opponents. Not only have they been poor on the road defensively, for the season the Bears rank 330th in eFG% allowed, 228th in 3 point FG% allowed and 323rd in 2 point FG% allowed. Montana State has a huge edge defensively in this game ranking 101st in eFG% allowed and 9th nationally defending the arc despite playing a tough schedule. The Bobcats have been very unlucky as well in regards to FT “defense” where their opponents have made 80.5% from the stripe which is the highest percentage in the nation. Montana State will also have revenge on their minds here after losing a tight 3 point game @ Northern Colorado last season blowing a 10 point lead with less than 8 minutes to go. Prior to last year’s loss, Montana State had won 8 of the previous 9 in this series and they are 28-8 SU at home all time vs Northern Colorado. Small spread here and we grab the home team. | |||||||
01-08-25 | Richmond v. George Mason -11 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
#682 ASA PLAY ON George Mason -11 over Richmond, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Richmond Spiders. They are a very poor shooting team ranking outside the top 330 in FG%, FG made per game, and 3 point FG%. They will struggle big time offensively in this game facing a high level George Masion defense that ranks 3rd nationally allowing opponents to make only 35% of their shots and 12th nationally giving up just 61 PPG. The Patriots have held over half their opponents (8) to less than 60 points this season and only 1 team has topped 70 points in regulation vs this defense and that was Marquette. They held a great Duke offense to 68 points which is impressive as the Blue Devils have been held to less than 70 points just twice all season. George Mason will also come into this home game with a chip on their shoulder after losing their most recent game @ Rhode Island as a favorite after winning 8 of their previous 9 games (only loss @ Duke during that stretch). On the other side, Richmond will be playing their 2nd straight road game after upsetting UMass on the road as a dog over the weekend. Nice set up with the host off a loss as a favorite vs the road team off a win as a dog. That was the Spiders first road win this season (1-4 SU in true road games) and as poor as they’ve been shooting the ball this year, on the road they’ve been abysmal making 38% of their shots and 25% of their triples. We highly doubt Richmond gets out of the 50’s in this game (they are averaging 53 PPG their last 3 trips to GMU – all losses) while George Mason is averaging 80 PPG at home this season. Lay it. | |||||||
01-08-25 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
#704 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -3.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas is back home off an embarrassing performance at #1 Tennessee on Saturday. They lost that game 76-52 and they were dominated on the boards which led to head coach John Calipari calling out his team’s effort. After that loss, Calipari has individual meetings with each of his players so we expect a huge effort at home to avoid dropping to 0-2 in the SEC. The Razors are undefeated at home this season while Ole Miss has played only 2 true road games all season. The Rebels won @ Louisville in early December when the Cards were decimated by injuries and they lost @ Memphis by 17 10 days ago. Arky has one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 17th in eFG% and inside the arc they make 60% of their shots which is 7th in the country. They are facing an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside the top 100 defending the 2 point shot. While Arkansas was dominated on the boards vs Tennessee, they should hold their own here vs a Rebel team that isn’t great on the boards (outside the top 170 in offensive and defensive rebounding). The Razorbacks have won 5 straight at home vs Mississippi and we’re getting an unranked home team favored over ranked road team which has been a profitable situation over the years. Lay it with Arkansas. | |||||||
01-07-25 | Nebraska v. Iowa -3.5 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
#632 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Nebraska, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Iowa is off their worst loss since February of 2020 losing @ Wisconsin on Friday 116-85. That dropped the Hawkeyes to 1-2 in Big 10 play and this becomes a must win with 2 of their last 3 on the road. Iowa’s offense played quite well in that loss shooting 48% and averaging 1.12 PPP. Not surprising as they rank in the top 10 nationally in FG%, 2 point FG% and PPG on offense. They are also 23rd in the country in offensive efficiency. The defense obviously let them down on Friday night. Wisconsin shot ridiculously well making 65% of their shots overall, 68% from 3 point land (21 of 31) and 88% from the FT line. While Iowa didn’t play well defensively, it was just one of those nights for the Badgers when everything went in. Expect a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court tonight for the Hawks and if their offense continues to play well, this should be a win. Nebraska is coming off a very important home win over UCLA on Saturday which was their 20th straight home win, however the Huskers are simply a different team away from home. They’ve played one Big 10 road game this season and lost by 27 points @ Michigan State and the Huskers have won only 5 of their last 21 conference road games. Iowa has just 1 home loss this season and that was vs #3 Iowa State in a game the Hawkeyes never trailed until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. At home this season Iowa has shot 54% and 41% from deep. They are facing a Nebraska defense that has allowed opponents to score almost 40% of their points from beyond the arc, 12th most in the country. Not a great match up for this Iowa offense at home. The Hawks have an extra day off as well playing on Friday while Nebraska played on Saturday. Carver Hawkeye Arena has been a house of horrors for the Huskers losing 9 of their last 10 there. Huge home game for Iowa and they’ll come with some extra effort / emotion here after their embarrassing loss on Friday while the Huskers could be a bit flat after a big home win on Saturday. | |||||||
01-07-25 | Tennessee v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 43-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#614 ASA PLAY ON Florida -2.5 over Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - What a perfect spot to grab Florida. The Gators are coming off their first loss of the season @ Kentucky on Saturday. Now they are favored at home over the only undefeated in the country #1 Tennessee. That number speaks volumes. In their 106-100 loss @ Kentucky, the Gators normally stout defense played very poorly. They allowed the Wildcats to average a ridiculous 1.47 PPP while shooting almost 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. It was by far the worst defensive performance of the season from a Florida team that ranks inside the top 20 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. On a positive note, the Gator offense continued to roll ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency after putting up triple digits and 1.39 PPP on the road vs a very good UK defense. The Vols are off a big home win over Arkansas but they’ve played only 1 true road game since November 9th. That was a 2 point win @ Illinois (a very talented but very young team) and the Illini shot only 29% from the field and 17% from deep in that game and still almost won. Dating back to the start of the 2009 season, Tennessee has lost 9 of their 11 games @ Florida including the last 2 where they were favored in both games and lost by double digits. Since the start of last season, the Gators have won 21 of their last 22 home games with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Kentucky last year. This season, SEC home teams are 132-3 SU while on the road they are just 15-14 SU. We like Florida to get the win and cover on Tuesday. | |||||||
01-05-25 | Maryland v. Oregon -3 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
#844 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Maryland, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We just laid 4.5 points with Oregon on Thursday night at home vs Illinois and it was a terrible pick to say the least. The Ducks were embarrassed 109-77 and we expect a huge bounce back at home on Sunday. As of this writing the line is Oregon -3 so we’re getting some nice value because of that terrible performance as the Illini rank in the top 10 per KenPom and Maryland sits at 26th and the line is lower for this one. The Ducks came into their game on Thursday night with just 1 loss, a 2 point setback to a very good UCLA team. Their defense had been really good prior to Thursday when Illinois went off for 58% from the field and 55% from the arc on a ridiculous 1.40 PPP. You can bet veteran head coach Dana Altman will have his team locked in defensively after that effort. The Ducks have played a very difficult schedule to date (27th SOS) and have some outstanding wins over Alabama, Texas A&M, and San Diego State. Maryland is in a rough situation as they were @ Washington on Thursday night now 72 hours later @ an angry Oregon team. The Terps lost at Washington (the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) by 6 on Thursday and they’ve lost both of their true road games this season. Unlike Oregon, the Terps have played a very easy schedule to date (330th SOS) and they are just 2-3 SU vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. Maryland has won only 3 of their last 17 road games in conference play and while we think they’ll be a solid team this year, this is not the spot. Lay it with Oregon. | |||||||
01-04-25 | San Francisco v. Washington State -2 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
#772 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -2 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough turnaround for San Francisco who played on the road @ Pacific just 48 hours ago and now they are @ Washington State. The Dons pulled off the 89-81 win @ Pacific but a non-cover as SF was favored by 13 over the Tigers who now have a record of 5-12. The Dons shot lights out hitting 51% of their shots, 45% of their triples and mad 19 of 21 FT’s but were still unable to pull away (final margin of 9 was their largest of the game) from a bad Pacific team. Now they travel to Washington State who is a perfect 6-0 at home this season with all of their wins coming by double digits and they’ve won 21 of their last 23 at home. The Cougars are one of the best shooting teams in the country (49.5%) ranking 28th but at home they up that to over 52% from the field while averaging 88 PPG. These 2 have nearly identical records (WSU 12-3 and SF 13-3) but Wazzou has played the tougher schedule at 109th SOS compared to the Dons at 229th. San Fran has played only 2 true road games this season winning @ Pacific as we discussed and losing @ Bradley. The situation heavily favors the home team who rarely loses on their home court. With the small spread, we’ll grab Washington State | |||||||
01-04-25 | Nebraska-Omaha v. North Dakota State -10.5 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
#650 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -10.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This sets up nicely situationally with NDSU coming off a rare home loss as a favorite while Nebraska Omaha is on a short 2 day turnaround coming off a road win @ UND as an underdog. We were on NDSU a few nights ago at home vs St Thomas and they lost their first game since November 26th with the Tommies winning 89-85. St Thomas hit 54% of their shots (43% for NDSU) and 47% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. We expect the Bison to come out with some fire at home after that tough loss. Prior to that this North Dakota State team had been destroying opponents at home. Their previous 3 home games were wins by margins of 29, 36, and 34 points with the latter 2 coming vs Western Michigan and Cal State Bakersfield who both rank higher than this Nebraska Omaha team. They’ve been shooting as well as any team in the nation ranking 4th in the country in eFG% and 3rd in 3 point FG% hitting just over 41% and they make nearly 79% of their FTs. That’s bad news for a Nebraska Omaha defense 312th in defensive efficiency, 310th in eFG% allowed, and 281st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Bison average 85 PPG at home while UNO gives up 78 PPG on the road so we expect NDSU to have a huge night offensively. Can the Mavericks keep up in this game? We don’t think so. They’re not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 220 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They’ll need to get hot from 3 to stay in this game but that’ll be tough as they make only 33% from deep (162nd nationally) and NDSU defends the arc very well ranking 50th. UNO has averaged just 66 PPG in their 6 road losses this season and we look for an easy with for North Dakota State in this one. | |||||||
01-02-25 | Illinois v. Oregon -3 | Top | 109-77 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
#800 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Illinois, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Illinois makes the long travel to play @ Oregon Thursday night. The Illini have played only 1 true road game this season and they lost @ Northwestern. The other “semi” road game they played was in Birmingham, AL vs the Crimson Tide and Illinois lost that game by double digits. While the Illini are talented, they are very young with a number of freshman and sophomores in their rotation (304th in experience) and we think they’ll struggle at times on the road vs high level teams. That’s what they get here @ Oregon. The Ducks are very good and experienced with 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 8 of their top 9 players in terms of minutes per game are seniors. They are 12-1 on the season, despite playing a really tough schedule (39th SOS), and their lone setback was by 2 points vs a UCLA team that is 11-2. The Ducks have been really good at home winning 21 of their last 25 games in Knight Arena and their average margin of victory at home this season is +19 PPG. The Illini rely heavily on the 3 point shot (58th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc) and getting to the FT line (53rd in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe). Two problems here, that plays right into Oregon’s defensive strengths (24th defending the arc & 60th in points allowed from the FT line. On top of that, Illinois has shot poorly away from home which can be expected from a young team. They have made only 37% of their shots and 26% of their triples in their 1 true road game @ NW. We like the Ducks to win and cover at home. | |||||||
01-01-25 | Villanova v. Butler +2.5 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
#690 ASA PLAY ON Butler +2.5 over Villanova, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Huge home game here for Butler who has lost 5 straight games and really needs a win here with their next 2 games coming on the road. To put their 5 game losing streak into perspective, 4 of those losses came vs UConn, Marquette, Houston, and Wisconsin who currently have a combined record of 40-11. Their most recent game was a 4 point loss to UConn in a game that went down to the wire. The Bulldogs have faced an extremely difficult schedule to date (33rd SOS) and today’s opponent, Villanova, is rated lower than 7 teams Butler has already played. The Wildcats have played 2 true road games and lost both @ St Joes and @ Creighton. They’ve also played 2 neutral site games and lost those as well so Nova is 0-4 away from home this year. The Bulldogs should have 2 solid offensive advantages in this game. One from beyond the arc and the other at the FT line. Both teams shoot the 3 well (ranked 9th and 20th in 3 point FG%) but Villanova is poor at defending the arc ranking 317th (Butler ranks 70th at defending the 3 point line). The Dogs get to the line A LOT with 26% of their points coming from the stripe (7th best in the nation) while the Wildcats rarely get to the line with just 16% of their points coming from the FT line (312th). Butler has won 4 of their last 5 at home vs Villanova and we look for them to come out on top again Wednesday. Take the points. | |||||||
12-31-24 | Utah State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
#656 ASA PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Utah State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We went against Nevada on the road on Saturday and picked up a win with Wyoming as a 6 point dog. The Cowboys won the game by 3 points and that puts Nevada in a must win type spot after dropping to 0-2 in the Mountain West. After this game they play their next 2 on the road so this becomes a huge home game for the host. Nevada has actually lost 2 straight so this is a huge game for the Pack. They are catching Utah State in a terrible spot playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off back to back upset wins as underdogs on the road over St Mary’s and San Diego State. In their win on Saturday @ SDSU, the Aggies never led by more than 1 point and trailed for 95% of the game. They made a 3 pointer with 7 seconds left to win 67-66. The Aztecs shot just 38% and only 25% from deep and still led mainly the entire game. Reno is a very tough place to play with Nevada winning 35 of their last 40 home games and they’ve also won 5 of their last 6 at home vs MWC rival Utah State. In their most recent home game, Nevada was -8 vs a solid Colorado State team that isn’t a fully 5+ points worse than CSU on a neutral court which is what this line suggests. This spot screams to take the home team and at this low number, we’ll do just that. | |||||||
12-30-24 | Cal-Irvine -4 v. California Baptist | Top | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#883 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -4 over Cal Baptist, Monday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for UC Irvine. They are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 70-54 loss @ Duquesne, and they’ve had 10 days to stew about that setback and get ready for this one. UCI is 10-2 on the season and their only other loss was @ Oregon State. The Anteaters have won 2 straight Big West Titles and are favored to win their 3rd this season. They are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency and they are holding opponents FG percentage of 39.4% on the season. In their loss @ Duquesne, the Anteaters allowed the Dukes to hit 49% of their shots and 56% of their triples while allowing 1.17 points per possession, their worst mark of the season. It was just the 3rd time in 12 games this season UCI allowed an opponent to average more than 1.00 PPP. After that subpar performance and more than a week off to make adjustments, we expect UCI to be really focused on the defensive end of the court. They should have plenty of success vs a Cal Baptist team that ranks 255th making just 43.5% of their shots while hitting only 30% of their 3’s (297th). The Cal Baptist Lancers have played an easy slate this far (283rd SOS) yet they have a 7-6 record. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 and tonight they face a UCI team that ranks 69th nationally per KenPom. The Lancers just played on Saturday so a quick turnaround vs an angry, rested team. In their game on Saturday Cal Baptist struggled to a 79-73 home win vs a Jackson State team that is winless on the season (0-13 record). UC Irvine is absolutely the better team in this match up and they are in the better situation as well. We’re getting a cheap line because they are on the road. We’ll take it. | |||||||
12-29-24 | St. Thomas v. Cal-Riverside +1 | Top | 79-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
#680 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +1 over St Thomas, Sunday at 5 PM ET - Long travel for St Thomas (Minneapolis) and they are a bit overvalued right now having won 6 straight games. 4 of those 6 wins came vs teams that are ranked 285th or lower and their 1 solid road win this year @ Northern Colorado, the Tommies shot a ridiculous 64% from the field. They are 3-3 on the road with their other 2 wins coming vs teams ranked 285th and 322nd. Now they face a top 200 team in the road in UC Riverside. The Highlanders have played a very tough schedule thus far (47th ranked SOS / St Thomas SOS is 250th) yet they still have a solid 8-5 record. UCR is 5-0 at home and should have a little extra motivation here coming off a 66-53 loss @ UNLV a week ago. St Thomas gets very little inside production (301st in percentage of points inside the arc) and they don’t get to the line very often. Thus, they rely very heavily on make 3 point shots which can make life tough on the road especially facing a solid 3 point defense (UCR allows 32% from deep). The Tommie also have a huge Summit League game on deck vs North Dakota State, the best team in the conference, so that game is of more importance. Coming from Minneapolis, they may view this as a bit of a vacation on west coast with warm weather before tipping off conference play on Thursday. Plus being away from home over the holidays may make it extra tough to focus. We’ll take the home team here. | |||||||
12-28-24 | Marshall v. Elon -5 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#626 ASA PLAY ON Elon -5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Elon has played the more difficult schedule to date (#185 SOS compared to #307 for Marshall), yet they still have the better record at 8-4 (Marshall is 7-6). Elon is also 4-0 at home this year while Marshall is 0-5 on the road. Dating back to last season Marshall has lost 12 straight road games and all but 2 of those have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread (as of Friday evening). The Phoenix have already beaten 3 teams this season ranked higher than Marshall including a solid road win @ Notre Dame. They should have a huge advantage as the FT line in this game as Elon scores over 21% of their points from the stripe (69th nationally) and the Herd fouls a lot with their opponents scoring 25% of their points from the stripe (12th worst nationally). On the other end, we don’t expect Marshall to get many freebies as the disciplined Elon defense fouls very little. On top of that, Marshall is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (28% which is 334th) which makes it very tough to win on the road. Their defense will struggle to keep them in this game as well as they allow over 50% shooting on the road and 81 PPG. Lay it with Elon on Saturday. | |||||||
12-23-24 | College of Charleston +2.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
#867 ASA PLAY ON College of Charleston +2.5 over Loyola Chicago, Monday at 5:30 PM ET - Both of these teams lost yesterday in their opening games of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu. Much different circumstances however as Loyola was a 6.5 point favorite and lost to Oakland who has a current record of 4-7 and their only lead in that game was 2-0. C of C lost as a dog to a very good Oregon State team making only 6 of 24 three point shots (24%) when on the season they’ve hit 36% from deep (81st nationally). Loyola will have a tougher time in this back to back situation as they are without 3 starters which has drastically thinned their bench. Those 3 players account for nearly 30 PPG, 10 RPG, and 7 APG and each average over 20 minutes per game. When healthy, the Ramblers won their first 8 games, but since the injuries to 3 key players, they have lost 2 of their last 3 with their only win in that stretch coming vs Canisius who is 0-13 and ranked 357th. Even in that win, Loyola didn’t really dominate a bad team winning by 12 at home. The Cougars have played the much tougher schedule (102nd SOS compared to 361st for Loyola) but still have a solid 8-3 record with top 100 wins over St Joes and FAU. The Ramblers have only played 1 team in the top 100 and lost that game by double digits vs San Francisco. If this one is tight, it could be won or lost from the FT line and C of C hits 76% of their freebies compared to 64% from Loyola. Tough spot for an undermanned Rambler team playing their second game in 24 hours. We’ll take the points. | |||||||
12-22-24 | Illinois -3 v. Missouri | Top | 80-77 | Push | 0 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#753 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -3 over Missouri, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Missouri is 10-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country ranking 361st in SOS out of 364 teams. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams all season and the Tigers have also played 10 straight home games. Their only game away from home was a loss @ Memphis to start the season. 7 of their 11 opponents this season currently rank 255th or lower. Illinois is 7-3 on the year but they’ve faced the 71st most difficult schedule to date with their losses coming vs Bama & Tennessee (2 top 10 teams) and @ Northwestern in OT in a game the Illini led by double digits in the 2nd half. Their most recent game was a 66-64 home loss vs #1 Tennessee losing a layup as time expired by the Vols. The Illini have had a full week to get over that tough loss and get ready for this game. These 2 rank nearly identical in offensive efficiency yet Illinois is far better on the defensive end (12th in defensive efficiency to 103rd for Mizzou) despite playing the much tougher schedule as we referenced earlier. Illinois is also the much better rebounding team and they keep opponents off the foul line which is where Mizzou has lived thus far ranking 25th in percentage of points from the FT line. This game is played on a neutral site in St Louis and last season Illinois throttled Missouri by 24 points. The Illini are still a top 20 team (per KenPom) and while the Tigers have improved, they were 8-24 last year so how much have they improved? It’s really hard to tell as they’ve been at home all season and only played a few good teams. We’ll lay the small number with the team we know is solid, that’s Illinois. | |||||||
12-21-24 | Ohio State v. Kentucky -8.5 | Top | 85-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
#708 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -8.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - OSU will be shorthanded here with starting PG Johnson out. The Buckeyes are 7-4 on the season and they’ve been poor when stepping up in competition. They’ve faced 4 teams this season ranked in the top 35 (per KenPom) and they’ve lost those games by 38, 24, 14, and 1 point (1 point loss was AT HOME vs Pitt). The Buckeyes have had a rough go offensive away from home (road or neutral) averaging just 64 PPG including getting held under 60 points twice. That’s a huge difference compared to their home splits where they average 90 PPG on the season. 5 of OSU’s 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200 all but 1 of their 7 wins have come at home. Kentucky has 1 loss on the season @ Clemson and they have 4 top 100 wins including topping Duke and Gonzaga, 2 top 6 teams per KenPom. They Buckeye offense relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (almost 35% of their points come from deep) but they are facing a Wildcat defense that ranks 12th nationally defending the arc allowing only 27%. The Kentucky defense has allowed opponents to make only 39% of their shot this year so we expect OSU to have problems on offense. Offensively the Wildcats lead the nation in scoring at 91 PPG and they rank 8th nationally in offensive efficiency. OSU’s defense has allowed 83 PPG vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. We don’t think the Buckeyes can keep up offensively here. Lay it with Kentucky. | |||||||
12-21-24 | Northern Iowa v. Washington State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
#676 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -3 over Northern Iowa, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Washington State has the better record (9-3 compared to 7-4 for UNI) and they’ve played the much tougher slate thus far. Wazzou’s strength of schedule is ranked 84th while Northern Iowa has played the 258th ranked SOS so far. This line is lower than it should be according to our power ratings and that’s because UNI has won 4 straight games in blowout fashion vs teams ranked 205th, 353rd, 303rd, and 213th. The Panthers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100 and 6 of their 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Washington State’s 3 losses this season have all come vs teams inside the top 100 (Iowa, SMU, and Washington). The Cougars are coming off a loss @ Washington on Wednesday giving them a little extra motivation here. Unlike UNI, the Cougars have already beaten 3 top 100 teams including Boise State on the road, Nevada on the road, and Bradley at home. Northern Iowa has done most of their damage at home but on the road (away or neutral) they are just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming vs Illinois Chicago. The Panthers lead the nation in FG% and they are #2 in 3 point FG% hitting at numbers that are not sustainable. Their 4 game winning streak has come vs poor opponents that all rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Washington State defense that ranks 87th in that category. We like Wazzou to cover this small number in Las Vegas on Saturday. | |||||||
12-19-24 | South Dakota v. Utah Tech +2.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
#748 ASA PLAY ON Utah Tech +2.5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - South Dakota steps into this game with a 9-4 record facing a 3-10 Utah Tech team and yet the Coyotes are only favored by 2.5 (opening line)? Looks pretty easy to grab South Dakota here but we’re on Utah Tech. The Coyotes record has been partly a product of their schedule. They’ve faced the 316th most difficult slate this season with 8 of their 13 games coming at home. On the road, this team is just 1-4 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Western Michigan (3-7 current record) by 4 points in a game WMU shot 18% from 3 and took 10 fewer FT attempts. Going back further, this South Dakota team has simply been terrible on the road winning just 5 of their last 32 dating back to the start of the 2022 season. Tough to consider them when favored on the road. On top of that, laying points on the road with a terrible defense is not ideal. The Coyotes 349th in defensive efficiency (out of 364 teams) and they rank 328th defending the arc. Tough to win on the road this those numbers on the defensive end. Utah Tech as a bad record but they’ve also faced the 67th most difficult schedule which is a huge jump from what South Dakota has faced. They’ve also only played 4 homes games and 9 road games this season. One of their top players, Beon Riley (14 PPG & 8 RPG) has missed the last few games and they are thinking they’ll have him back here. We’ll take the points here and call for Utah Tech to win this one outright. | |||||||
12-18-24 | VCU v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#706 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over VCU, Thursday at 9 PM ET - VCU is 9-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the easier schedules on the country (301st SOS per KenPom). They’ve faced on only 2 top 100 teams this season (1-1 record) and 8 of their 9 wins have come vs teams that rank 150th or lower. On top of that, this is their first true road game of the season as they head to the Pit, one of the tougher places to play in the country. New Mexico hasn’t left home this entire month while VCU played in Vegas on Saturday vs Colorado State and now travel to Albuquerque for this one. The Lobos have played the more difficult schedule to date and have already beaten 2 top 100 teams (UCLA and USC both on neutral courts). VCU’s defensive numbers for the season are solid, however, they’ve faced only 2 top 100 offense (efficiency) so far this season and they split those 2 games beating Miami FL and losing to Nevada. Tonight they face a potent New Mexico offense that is averaging nearly 90 PPG (8th best scoring offense in the nation). VCU thrives at turning teams over leading to extra possessions but New Mexico has done a very good job at protecting the ball (70th in offensive turnover rate) so that may not work tonight on the road. The Lobos have won 19 of their last 23 home games and this is a huge game for them with 3 of their next 4 coming on the road. Lay the small spread with New Mexico. | |||||||
12-17-24 | Valparaiso v. Ohio State -21.5 | Top | 73-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
#642 ASA PLAY ON Ohio St -21.5 over Valparaiso, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - OSU will be looking to smack someone here after getting blasted by Auburn 91-53 on Saturday in Atlanta. The Bucks have shown good bounce back ability when facing inferior opponents this year. Prior to their loss on Saturday, they were twice beaten by double digits on the road this season @ Texas A&M and @ Maryland and turned around the next game and beat Evansville by 30 and Rutgers by 14. OSU has also shown this season that when tabbed a big favorite, they have no problem burying teams. They have been a chalk of -19 or higher 4 times this season and covered all 4 by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were favored by anywhere from -19 to -25 in those 4 games and the average final score in those blowout wins was 92-51. Valpo has a 5-4 record on the season but they’ve faced the 342nd most difficult schedule per KenPom. Their only true road game was a 19 point loss @ DePaul in a game they trailed by 25 with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Crusaders have faced only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 200 (both losses) and OSU is the best team they’ve played this year by a wide margin. The Buckeyes rank inside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive eFG% while Valpo ranks outside the top 285 in both those statistics despite facing one of the easier schedules in the country. OSU’s losses have come all vs top 30 teams (Auburn, Maryland, Pitt, and Texas A&M) and Valparaiso has been terrible on the road winning just once in their last 19 true roadies. This has blowout written all over it. | |||||||
12-17-24 | Clemson -2.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
#607 ASA PLAY ON Clemson -2.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Clemson has the better record in this one despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Tigers are 9-2 on the season and they’ve faced the 75th most difficult schedule to date. Their losses have come @ Boise State and in OT on Saturday vs Memphis. The Tigers have wins over Kentucky, Penn State, and Miami FL (all top 100 teams). The Gamecocks are 7-3 but they’ve faced the 261st most difficult slate thus far. They don’t have a win vs anyone in the top 140 and in their 2 games vs top 100 teams, they lost both by 16 vs Indiana and by 9 vs Xavier, both rated lower than this Clemson team. South Carolina also already has a home loss vs North Florida who was the highest rated team they’ve faced at home thus far. The Tigers have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they are the much better rebounding team. If this one is tight late, FT’s could be key in who wins this one and Clemson shoots 74% from the stripe compared to 66% for South Carolina. Clemson has won 5 of the last 7 in this in-state rivalry including 2 of the last 3 @ South Carolina. The Tigers should play with a little extra edge here coming off their OT loss vs a very good Memphis team who had wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Missouri prior to squeaking one out on Saturday @ Clemson. We like the Tigers laying the small number. | |||||||
12-15-24 | Norfolk State +3.5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#306627 ASA PLAY ON Norfolk State +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Sunday at 1 PM ET - NKY is 4-6 on the season and their 4 wins have come vs Kentucky State (Non D1), University of the Cumberlands (Non D1), Bellarmine (ranked 333rd), and IU Indy (ranked 349th). Not an impressive list to say the least. Their defense has been one of the worst in the country ranking 337th in eFG% allowed and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. They haven’t been much better on the other end of the court offensively ranking 295th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG%. Throw out their games vs the 2 Non Division 1 teams listed above and the Norse are only averaging 65 PPG on the season. Norfolk State is 6-5 on the year and they have already tallied 3 true road wins. The Spartans are the much better shooting team hitting 49% of their shots on the season (42nd nationally) led by 2 very solid guards (Moore & Ings) who combined to average 33 PPG this season. Norfolk returns 4 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 24-11 record. They are very well coached by head man Robert Jones who returns for his 12th season and over the last 3 years (prior to this season) he has led the Spartans to 70 wins and just 29 losses. They are hungry for a win here coming off back to back losses including losing @ Baylor on Wednesday so a little extra motivation for the better team in our opinion. NKY continues to be overvalued with a 1-7 ATS record on the season while Norfolk is 7-2 ATS, including a 5-1 mark as an underdog. Take the points with Norfolk as we like them to win this game outright. | |||||||
12-14-24 | Green Bay v. UC-Santa Barbara -13.5 | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
#704 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -13.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UWGB making the long travel to the west coast after getting rolled at home by rival UW Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Phoenix lost that game by 19 points but it wasn’t that close was UWM led by 29 with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. New head coach Doug Gottlieb is struggling in his first year ever coaching CBB with a 2-9 overall record and 6 straight losses. Their 2 wins came vs Western Illinois (ranked 325th) and SIUE (ranked 259th) with their most recent win coming nearly a month ago. The Phoenix are a terrible defensive team ranking outside the top 330 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and PPG allowed. They have given up more than 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Not a great match up here for that terrible defense facing a UCSB team that ranks 13th in eFG%, 24th in 3 point FG%, and 31st in 2 point FG%. The Gauchos are also stout on the defensive end allowing opponents to shoot just 38% which is the 18th best mark in the nation. UCSB should get plenty of extra opportunities as well on the offensive end as UWGB is a terrible rebounding team on both ends. The Phoenix are also working through some locker room issues as their leading scorer was benched 2 games ago for not showing up to a pre-game shoot around. UCSB rolls in this one. | |||||||
12-14-24 | NC State v. Kansas -13.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
#630 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over NC State, Saturday at 3:15 PM ET - Love this spot for the Jayhawks at home. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Missouri and they’ve had the full week off to stew about those setbacks and get ready for this home game vs NC State. Let’s not forget before those back to back losses, the Jayhawks had wins over UNC, Michigan State, and Duke and they’ve faced the 15th most difficult schedule to date. NC State, on the other hand, has 3 losses already this season and they’ve faced the 303rd most difficult schedule so far per KenPom. The only win the Wolfpack have vs a team inside the top 200 was vs Florida State and that was at home in OT in a game they trailed by 6 in regulation late. Their 3 losses have come vs top 100 teams Texas at home, and by double digits vs Purdue and BYU on neutral courts. This will be their first true road game of the season and Kansas is the best team they’ve faced to date. Minus their win vs FSU, all of the Wolfpack’s wins have come vs teams ranked 215th or lower. Their most recent game on Tuesday night was at home vs an 0-11 Coppin State team that is rated the 2nd worst team in the nation (363rd) and NC State only won that game by 10 points as a 32 point favorite. That’s the closest game Coppin State has had this season and that includes the likes of UMBC, Loyola Maryland, Wagner, High Point, and Rider who all beat them by a larger margin than NC State. The Wolfpack have only 1 starter back from last year and they are still finding their way with a number of new transfers. Kansas is waiting to smack someone at home and it just happens that NC State is that someone. Blowout here. | |||||||
12-12-24 | Iowa State v. Iowa +6.5 | Top | 89-80 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
#672 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +6.5 over Iowa State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge revenge game for the Hawkeyes who were demolished last year @ ISU 90-65 as an 8 point dog. The Cyclones are laying nearly that same number on the road this year so we like the value with Iowa. ISU is playing their first true road game of the season and they have struggled in Iowa City losing 4 straight here, all by at least 14 points, with their last road win in this rivalry coming in 2014. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 2 point road loss @ Michigan last Saturday in a game they shot just 42% to Michigan’s 55% and made 7 fewer FT’s but still had a shot to win on the road vs a very good opponent. The Cyclone defense thrives on creating turnovers to pick up extra possessions but they may not get that advantage here vs an veteran Iowa back court that has only turned the ball over at a 14% rate (32nd nationally). Iowa State has also had a huge edge at the FT line in their games thus far attempting 93 more FT’s than their opponents in their 8 games. However, Iowa has done a great job of not fouling with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the charity stripe (11th lowest rate in the nation). On top of that, with this game being in Iowa City, we don’t see ISU getting a friendly whistle on Thursday night. The Hawkeyes should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc where they rank 33rd in 3 point shots made per game to ISU’s 208th in that category. Iowa had defended the arc very well this season allowing just 27% (13th nationally) so the Cyclones may make even fewer from deep than their average which isn’t great. Iowa has been waiting for this one after last year’s debacle and we expect this one to be tight. Iowa and the generous points are worth the take here. | |||||||
12-11-24 | UTEP +15 v. Louisville | Top | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
#645 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +15 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Louisville has been decimated by injuries early in the season and they’ve struggled as of late losing 3 straight. They’ve already lost 2 starters for the season and their backup PG is also now out for the year. The most recent injury to Kesean Pryor on November 29th was a huge loss as he was putting up 12 PPG and 6 RPG. It’s gotten to a point for the Cards that head coach Pat Kelsey mentioned they’ve struggled to simply go 5x5 in practice due to lack of bodies (they are down to 8 scholarship players). They gave a valiant effort vs Duke here on Sunday building a 14 point first half lead but running out of gas in the 2nd half losing 76-65 and the Cards played only 7 players. Coming off that all out effort and facing arch rival Kentucky on Saturday, we have to believe Louisville might struggle here in this massive sandwich spot. UTEP is a solid team coming off a winning season last year and bringing back a number of their key players. The Miners are 7-2 on the season and have some momentum with 3 straight wins including topping 2 solid teams UNCG and Seattle, both top 140 teams. Unlike Louisville, the Miners are very deep with 10 guys averaging double digit minutes and 8 players averaging between 5 PPG and 13.5 PPG. Defensively they rank #1 in the nation this year AND last year at creating turnovers with opponents coughing it up 28% of the time. That could be a problem for a thin Louisville team that has struggled with turnovers this season and doesn’t have a backup PG. UTEP can also make 3’s (38% which is 50th in the nation) and they make their FT’s (76%). Going back to the start of last season, the Miners have lost only 3 games by more than 14 points (tonight’s line is +14.5). We like UTEP to give Louisville all they can handle on Wednesday and we’ll take the hefty points. | |||||||
12-10-24 | Penn State v. Rutgers -1 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
#610 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We really like this spot for Rutgers coming off 3 consecutive games while they catch PSU after their upset, court storming, home win over Purdue. The Scarlet Knights 3 games losing streak is not a huge surprise as they played high level opponents, away from home, and they were dogs in all 3 of those games vs Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ohio State. They covered 2 of those games losing tight games to Bama (by 5) and A&M (by 4) and they looked emotionally spent in their most recent loss @ OSU. Now Rutgers is back at home for the first time since November 20th and they get to face a Penn State team that has yet to play a true road game. They’ve faced a tough schedule (73rd SOS) thus far taking on 4 teams ranked in the top 80 while PSU’s SOS is ranked 296th and they’ve faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (beat Purdue at home and lost to Clemson on a neutral). An extra layer of motivation for the Knights as they were favored by 8 points at home vs PSU in January and lost shooting just 34%, making only 1 of 17 from beyond the arc, and missing half their FT’s. It was one of the Nittany Lions 2 road wins last year (2-8 SU on the road last season & 7-24 SU on the road the last 3 seasons). PSU is hitting 52% of their shots this season (4th in the country) which isn’t sustainable, especially in their first true road game. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 defensive efficiency teams and already 4 ranked outside the top 300 in that category. Rutgers has one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had with 2 freshmen (Bailey and Harper) each expected to be top 10 draft picks next year. We like a bounce back, all in effort from Rutgers and at this small number we really only need them to win at home. | |||||||
12-08-24 | Maryland v. Purdue -4.5 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
#754 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -4.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot to grab the Boilers on a low number at home. Purdue was just smoked 81-70 on the road @ Penn State on Thursday. It wasn’t that close as PSU led by 27 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Nittany Lions shot very well in that win but the huge edge was at the FT line where they made 29 freebies compared to 14 for Purdue. The Boilermakers also committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers which turned out to be a giveaway on 33% of their possessions. Head coach Matt Painter was upset after the game as you might expect. “Our fight wasn't even close to Penn State's fight. It wasn't even close. Not remotely close,” he said after the loss. You can expect Purdue to play with passion on Sunday. They are facing a Maryland team that is solid, but has yet to play a true road game. They’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (349th SOS per KenPom – Purdue has played the 16th most difficult SOS) with 6 of their 9 opponents thus far ranking outside the top 250. The Terps are coming off a blowout home win vs Ohio State and the Buckeyes looked disinterested after blowing a big lead and losing to Pitt in OT their previous game. Purdue is undefeated at home including an impressive 9 point win over top 10 Alabama. They have lost back to back games only one time since the start of the 2022 season and the Boilermakers have won 41 of their last 42 home games. The last 5 times these teams have faced off at Mackey Arena the Boilers have been favored by an average of -10.5 points and they’ve won all 5. We’re getting them at a very low number here because of their performance and PSU”s and Maryland’s blowout win over OSU. Take Purdue. | |||||||
12-07-24 | Montana v. St. Thomas -6 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
#638 ASA PLAY ON St Thomas -6 over Montana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on Montana as a home dog earlier this week facing South Dakota State and we picked up a nice win with the Grizzlies coming out on top 71-67. SDSU played that game without their leading scorer & rebounder Oscar Cluff, who averages 18 PPG and 11 RPG. That was a huge loss to a very young SDSU team that plays a number of freshmen and they were playing their first true road game of the season. Even with Cluff out the Jackrabbits kept it fairly close despite shooting only 17% from beyond the arc. Now Montana must travel to Minneapolis to face a full strength St Thomas team that ranks with SDSU at the top team in the Summit League. The Griz have won 4 in a row, however all those wins were at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season. St Thomas is unbeaten at home this season and they just won @ Northern Arizona by 12 points, a team from the Big Sky that is rated higher than Montana in that conference. The Tommies weakness is on the boards but the Grizzlies aren’t a team that can take advantage of that as they are bad on the glass as well. St Thomas is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 23rd nationally in eFG%, 46th in 3-point FG% and 31st in 2-point FG%. They also make over 76% of their FT’s. Montana is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arc where they make only 28% (313th). With the Tommies shooting well and averaging 84 PPG on the season, we’re not sure Montana can keep up. Lay the small number. | |||||||
12-06-24 | Illinois v. Northwestern +4.5 | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
#894 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +4.5 over Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - We think the Illini are overvalued right now after playing a very easy schedule thus far (309th SOS) and now playing their first true road game of the season. The Illini have played only 2 top 100 teams thus far and split those 2 games. NW is coming off a tough loss @ Iowa where the Hawkeyes hit a 3 pointer at the horn to win by 1 point. The Wildcats led that game by 6 points with less than 2:00 minutes remaining the game and obviously had a great shot to win a road game despite Iowa hitting 55% of their shots. NW’s 3 losses this season came @ Iowa by 1, @ Dayton by 5 (Dayton’s 2 losses are vs UNC by 2 and Iowa St by 5) and @ Butler by 2. The Cats have won the last 2 meetings outright in Evanston, both as underdogs. The Illinois defensive numbers are impressive, however, they have faced 3 teams ranked outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency and the only good offensive team they’ve faced, Alabama, put up 100 points. The Illini have a huge game on deck vs Wisconsin and they are facing a Northwestern team that has won 20 of their last 22 home games. This smells like a potential upset to us. We’ll take the points with Northwestern. | |||||||
12-06-24 | Georgetown v. West Virginia -9.5 | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
#892 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia -9.5 over Georgetown, Friday at 7 PM ET - Georgetown is 7-1 on the season but they are taking huge step up in competition here. The Hoyas strength of schedule ranks 354th (out of 364 teams) per KenPom. On top of that all 8 of their games have been at home. The only team they’ve played that ranks in the top 220 is Notre Dame, that game was at home and Georgetown lost that game by 21 points. That was vs an Irish team that currently has a losing record at 4-5. West Virginia, on the other hand, has played the 23rd strength of schedule and their only 2 losses are vs high level opponents Pitt and Louisville in OT. The Mountaineers have already beaten Gonzaga (who ranks #4 per KenPom) and Arizona (top 30 per KenPom). WVU has had a full week off since returning from their Bahamas tourney where they went 2-1 facing 3 top 50 teams. West Virginia has the better eFG% both offensively and defensively despite facing the much tougher schedule. The Mountaineers are the much better 3 point shooting team (35% to 29%) and if they need to close this one out and the foul line they hit 76% of the freebies. Last season the Hoyas were just 3-21 SU away the last 2 seasons with from home with 16 of those 21 losses coming by at least 7 points. We like WVU by double digits here. | |||||||
12-05-24 | Stephen F Austin v. UT-Rio Grande Valley -6.5 | Top | 65-68 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#306586 ASA PLAY ON UT Rio Grande Valley -6.5 over Stephen F Austin, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV continues to slide under most people’s radars but this team is very good. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS covering by an average of more than 10 PPG. They have played a very tough schedule already traveling to play @ Nebraska, @ Creighton, and @ Wisconsin. They took the Badgers to the wire losing 87-84 and UTRGV had the ball down 1 point with less than 15 seconds remaining in the game. The Vaqueros are averaging 87 PPG, they rank 65th in the nation in eFG%, make 12 three pointers a game (9th in the nation), and hit 76% of their FT’s and keep in mind that’s vs the 81st most difficult SOS to date. Stephen F Austin has played a much easier slate (292nd) and they still have 3 losses. All 3 of their wins vs D1 opponents have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower and this team really struggles on offense. Take out their 2 games vs non Division 1 opponents and the Lumberjacks are averaging only 59 PPG. They rank 329th in offensive efficiency, make only 56% of their FT’s, and turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate (27.4% which is 363rd out of 364 teams). SFA is going to have a hard time keeping up in this game so we’ll lay the points with UT Rio Grande Valley playing in just their 3rd home game of the season. | |||||||
12-04-24 | South Dakota State v. Montana +3 | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana +3 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Montana is on a 3 game winning streak, they are 5-0 at home this year and they’ve been at home since November 19th so more than 2 full weeks. The Grizzlies are coming off a very good 24-12 record a year ago and they are really tough to beat at home winning 21 of their last 24 games in Dahlberg Arena. They’ve only been a home dog 1 time since the start of the 2022 season and the Griz won that game outright. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far (43rd SOS per KenPom) and their 3 losses have come vs high level teams all on the road (Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State). This is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up. Tonight they face a very young South Dakota State team who is playing their first true road game of the season. The Jackrabbits start 2 freshmen and have 4 freshmen in their top 7 all playing their first true road game of their careers. They have a slightly better record (7-2) but they’ve also played the much easier schedule (236th per KenPom). While Montana has been at home for a few weeks, SDSU played 3 games in the Cayman Islands last week, came home for 1 game vs Dakota Wesleyan on Monday and now 2 nights later on the road again @ Montana. The last time these 2 faced off @ Montana was 2 years ago and in a pick-em game, the Grizzlies rolled to an easy 81-56 win. We don’t expect a blowout here, but we do like the home team to get the win. | |||||||
12-04-24 | Baylor v. Connecticut -2 | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
#680 ASA PLAY ON UConn -2 over Baylor, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - You can bet UConn will come out with some serious effort here at home after going 0-3 in their tourney in Hawaii a week ago. Head coach Danny Hurley was very upset with his team (and refs!), especially on the defensive end. They’ve heard all week how they a program in decline, don’t deserve to be in the top 25 poll, etc… This is their chance to save face, so to speak, vs a solid team. Baylor has 2 losses on the season and in their only true road game this season, the Bears lost by 38 points @ Gonzaga. They’ve really struggled on the defensive end ranking 355th defending the arc (out of 364 teams) and 331st in defensive efficiency. Being poor on that end of the court makes is really tough to win on the road. They are facing a Connecticut offense that has been very good ranking in the top 10 nationally in both eFG% and offensive efficiency. The Huskies have won 25 straight home games and only twice during that stretch were they favored by single digits at home. 23 of their last 25 home games UConn has been favored by at least 10 points. We’re getting value here due to their struggles in Hawaii. Baylor, despite their success, has won only 5 of their last 14 road games dating back to the last month of the 2022/23 season. We like UConn at home Wednesday night. | |||||||
12-03-24 | Kentucky v. Clemson +2 | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#658 ASA PLAY ON Clemson +2 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Tigers as a slight home favorite here so we like the value on Clemson as a dog. Kentucky has won their first 7 games of the season with 6 of those coming at home and another, vs Duke, on a neutral site in Atlanta. This will be their first true road game of the season which is always a tough spot especially vs a very good team like Clemson. Six of Kentucky’s seven wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100 so their strength of schedule, besides Duke, hasn’t been great. The Tigers are 7-1 on the season with their lone loss @ Boise State. They are 5-0 at home and they’ve been really tough to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum winning 35 of their last 41 games in their own arena. The Kentucky offense is averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on the season, however they’ve faced mainly poor defensive teams (5 of 7 ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they Cats have gotten the pace they want (fast – ranked 4th in adjusted tempo) vs most of the teams they’ve played. That changes here. Clemson will play this game at their much preferred slower pace and they really make opponents work on defense allowing a shot every 19.4 seconds (3rd longest in the nation). The Tigers rank 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held every opponent but 1 to less than 70 points. While we don’t expect Clemson to shut down this UK offense, they will do enough defensively to slow them down a make them uncomfortable in the half court. The Tigers offense is good enough to stay in this one as well ranking in the top 20 nationally in 3 point FG% and they shoot over 50% from the field at home. Kentucky has a huge game on deck vs Gonzaga so they could be peaking ahead. We like Clemson to pull the upset at home. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Sean Higgs | $1,221 |
Kevin Young | $985 |
Michael Alexander | $830 |
Jack Jones | $731 |
Kenny Walker | $717 |
Bobby Conn | $681 |
Brody Vaughn | $651 |
Joseph D'Amico | $560 |
Dave Price | $535 |
Kyle Hunter | $358 |