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#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.  The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it!

#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#196 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota is in a really rough spot here making the long travel to California after upsetting USC in Minneapolis last week. The Gophers scored the game winning TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 27-24. USC outgained Minnesota in the game but turned the ball over 3 times and missed a FG. Gopher head coach PJ Fleck went nutty in the locker room post game as if they had just won the National Championship. That ended a huge 3 game stretch for Minnesota facing Iowa, Michigan, then USC (they lost the first 2 games). We would expect a letdown in this game in which they are expected to win. We were down on UCLA entering the season but they’ve shown a lot of fight despite their 1-4 record. They have played the #1 rated strength of schedule in the nation and they get a bit of a reprieve here after taking on Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State over their last 4 games. Those 4 opponents have a combined record of 20-1 on the season. UCLA has covered 3 in a row by an average of more than a TD per game. Last week @ PSU, the Bruins lost 27-11 as 4 TD dogs, were only outgained by 62 yards and held the vaunted Nittany Lion rushing attack to just 85 yards on 2.8 YPC. They have not given up, playing hard vs a brutal schedule and now they catch Minnesota in a great spot to get picked off. Big 10 teams that have traveled at least 2 times zones in conference play this year (West coast teams to the Midwest or East or vise versa) are 1-8 SU this season. The last 4 times Minnesota has been a road favorite, they are 0-4 ATS and lost 3 of those games outright. UCLA keeps this close and has a great shot at the upset.

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#194 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -13.5 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - These 2 teams are both 3-2 but there is no comparison when looking at how these teams have gotten to this point. Texas State is the FAR superior team. TSU’s 2 losses came at the hands of Arizona State (by 3 points) and Sam Houston State (by 1 point). The Bobcats outgained both of those teams in losing efforts and blew an 18 point second half lead vs SHSU and a 7-point second half lead vs ASU. Their stats are extremely impressive and scream undefeated team. Despite their 3-2 record, the Bobcats are +12.6 PPG, +125 YPG, and +2.8 YPP. Arkansas State has the same 3-2 record, yet their numbers in those key stats are -9.2 PPG, -78 YPG, and -1.6 YPP. While Texas State has outgained each of their 5 opponents, Arkansas State has been outgained in all 5 of their games. The Red Wolves actually rank outside the top 100 in both total offense and total defense. Their wins came vs FCS Central Arkansas by 3 points, Tulsa who has a 2-4 record, by 4 points, and South Alabama, who has a 2-4 record, by 2 points. We were on South Alabama last week and Arkie State kicked a FG with 10 seconds remaining to win the game. TSU played @ Troy last week and blasted the Trojans 38-17 outgaining them by 130 yards including 215 to 63 on the ground. Not only is Texas State the much better team in this match up, they have massive revenge involved. This is a game they’ve been waiting for. That’s because last season, TSU was favored @ Arkansas State and lost 77-31. You read that correctly. Believe it or not, the Bobcats actually outgained ASU 539 to 494 in that loss but had 4 turnovers (0 for ASU) in that game. Not only that, 3 of the turnovers were a fumble returned for a TD along with 2 pick 6’s. On top of that, Arkansas State also had a 93 yard kickoff return so 4 non-offensive TD’s in the game. We don’t think Arkansas State, who is averaging 21 PPG, can keep up here vs a motivated Texas State team that has already scored at least 34 points in 4 of their 5 games. Blowout expected here.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

#115/116 ASA PLAY ON Over 45.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern’s pass defense is one of the worst in the nation (110th) and we expect them to get torched here by Maryland’s passing game which ranks 17th averaging over 300 YPG through the air.  Last week the Cats faced Indiana in Evanston in windy conditions right on Lake Michigan (NW temporary stadium is right on the lake) and despite those conditions the Hoosiers put up 41 points and over 300 yards passing.  The Terps offense ranks in the top 35 averaging 452 YPG and they have not been held below 24 points this season (they average 33 PPG).  NW starting QB Lausch has made some real noticeable progress since taking over for previous starter Wright a few weeks ago.  Lausch struggled in his first road start vs Washington (who has a top 10 defense) but looked really good last week vs the Hoosiers.  In that game Lausch threw for 243 yards and 2 TD’s in less than ideal conditions (windy).  NW put up 24 points in that loss.  We expect Lausch to have more success on Friday evening vs a Maryland defense that ranks 120th defending the pass allowing 270 YPG.  When these 2 met last year the total was set in the high 40’s and they flew over the total with 60 points.  These teams have faced off 4 times since Maryland joined the Big 10 and all 4 have totaled at least 46 points with an average of 55 total points.  The weather looks perfect in College Park on Friday night with temps in the low 60’s and light winds.  Over is the call.  

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

#109/110 ASA PLAY ON Under 49.5 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Louisiana Tech, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here in this CUSA battle.  MTSU ranks 98th in YPP on offense while La Tech ranks 119th.  They average 16 PPG and 19 PPG respectively. They only game in which MTSU topped 21 points was vs FCS Tennessee Tech and even in that game the Blue Raiders tallied only 328 total yards.  In this match up, they are facing a very solid La Tech defense that ranks 30th nationally in total defense and 23rd in YPP allowed at just 4.5.  The only team that topped 20 points vs this LT defense this season (in regulation) was NC State and even in that game the Wolfpack only had 23 offensive points (they scored a defensive TD for 30 points).  The Bulldogs have held every opponent to under their season PPG average this year including NC State if you subtract the defensive TD by the Wolfpack.  Offensively this Tech team is not good.  The only game in which they topped 325 total yards was vs FCS Nicholls State and in that game they only scored 25 points.  They have not topped 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents this season.  Last week, they faced an FIU defense that ranks outside the top 100 and the Bulldogs only put up 17 points (17-10 win).  MTSU’s defense ranks very low as well, however La Tech has struggled against every defense they’ve faced, good or bad.  The MTSU defense actually has a bit of momentum as well holding a potent Memphis offense to 24 points in their most recent game.  We don’t think either team gets into the mid 20’s here so Under is the play.    

#103/104 ASA PLAY ON Over 58 Points – New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Two terrible defenses in this game will lead to a higher scoring game. These 2 rank 111th and 126th in total defense and 120th and 121st in scoring defense. The Jax State offense is rolling right now and should have their way vs this NMSU defense 30+ points in every game this season (minus their one FCS opponent). In their most recent game, the Aggies gave up 50 points and almost 600 yards to arch rival New Mexico. JSU has put up 141 points in their last 3 games alone (47 PPG) and they averaged over 500 YPG in those games. That shouldn’t change on Wednesday vs one of the worst defensive teams in the country. New Mexico State should also have offensive success in this game. Their offensive numbers aren’t great this season (19.6 PPG) but they’ve only faced one defense this season outside the top 100 (same range as JSU) and the Aggies put up 40 points in that game vs New Mexico. They also put up 24 points vs Liberty who has a top 35 defense. The Aggies strength on offense is their running game (155 YPG rushing) and that plays directly into JSU’s defensive weakness as they rank 118th defending the run. Jacksonville State plays as a very fast pace (9th in seconds per play) and NMSU is in the top half of the country in tempo. We should get plenty of offensive snaps in this game and with poor defensive teams, we’ll call for the Over in this game.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday).  They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR.  With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward.  They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season.  The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season.  The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that.  Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP).  Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson.  We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs.  We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG.

#392 ASA TOP PLAY ON Washington -120 ON THE MONEY LINE over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re playing Washington ON THE MONEY LINE here to just win the game straight up.  Michigan is ranked in the top 10 (undeservedly so) and they are an underdog here vs a team that has a 3-2 record and is unranked?  Hmmm?  We feel pretty strongly that despite their record, Washington is the better team in this match up.  The Huskies lost last week @ Rutgers (we were on UW) despite completely dominating the game outgaining the Knights 521 to 299 (7.9 YPP to 4.4 YPP).  In both of their losses vs Rutgers and Washington State, the Huskies dominated the stat sheet and in fact they’ve outgained every opponent this season.  Their YPG margin is +220 and they have a +3.1 YPP differential.  They rank in the top 20 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Simply not the numbers of a 2 loss team.  If UW was undefeated entering this game, which they probably should be, we are looking at a higher number.  Michigan is 4-1 this season but they are getting OUTGAINED by 7 YPG.  They barely held on at home last week 27-24 vs a pretty average Minnesota team but the Wolverines were outgained by 55 yards in that win.  The Wolverines have struggled to beat teams at home this year and now they take the road for the first time (long travel).  They have almost zero passing game averaging only 115 YPG through the air (130th) and it’s actually gotten worse since Orgi took over at QB.  In his 2 starts vs USC and Minnesota, Orgi has a total of 118 yards passing.  This team is very one dimensional and they are facing a defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing only 4.1 YPP.  Not a good recipe for offensive success.  UW has a massive edge on offense (20th in total offense to 116th for Michigan) and at QB with Will Rogers who has almost 14,000 careers passing yards and 104 TD’s.  Different head coaches and many new players for each team, however we still anticipate a little extra motivation for Washington after losing to Michigan in last year’s National Championship game.  The Huskies take this one at home.

#330 ASA PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a fantastic spot to back CC and fade ODU. Coastal is coming off a bye-week and will be rested and have the perfect gameplan in place for the Monarchs. Old Dominion is coming off a last second win on the road at Bowling Green. ODU averaged just 5.1YPP against Bowling Green and needed a TD with just .24-seconds left to pull out the road upset. Old Dominion had lost three straight games prior with 19, 14 and 17 points offensively. Coastal Carolina was 3-0 SU prior to a loss to Virginia on Sept 21st. CC put up 390 yards in the loss to UVA but were minus -2 in TO’s. Virginia pounded Coastal on the ground with their rushing attack which ranks 30th in college football. ODU does not possess that type of rushing attack, and they may be down to their second-string QB here as their starter, Wilson, went out last game in the 3rd quarter. The Monarchs have one of the worst passing attacks in the country averaging just 145PYPG on the season with a completion rate of 53.10% which ranks 117th. Old Dominion has a negative point differential of minus -6.8PPG this season and were minus -7.4PPG on the road a year ago. Last year Coastal Carolina won at ODU 28-24 but they outgained the Monarchs by over 110 total yards. CC is 23-5 SU their last 28 home games. ODU has lost 14 of their last 20 road games by an average of minus -6PPG.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Connecticut -17 over Temple, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UConn is rolling right now to say the least.  They are coming off a 47-3 blowout win over Buffalo last week.  A week earlier they rolled FAU here at home 48-14.  In their 3 games at home the Huskies have scored 158 for an average of 52 PPG.  The 2 teams they just destroyed here we have both rated better than this Temple squad who we have rated in the bottom 10 nationally.  The Owls may be without their starting QB Simon who injured his shoulder in last week’s 48-14 home loss vs Army.  Their back up QB Brock has an injured wrist so there is a chance this bad Owls offense (119th in total offense) will be down to their 3rd string signal caller.  In their 2 road games this season, Temple has been outscored 89-14.  Their rush defense ranks 131st allowing 261 YPG on 5.9 YPC.  That won’t cut it here vs this UConn running game that is up to 12th nationally averaging 245 YPG and they’ve rushed for a ridiculous 1,300+ yards in their 3 home games.  UConn starting QB Evers left last week’s blowout win with an injury but back up Fagnano is a better passer and has played plenty this season.  He makes this offense even tougher to defend in our opinion.  He came in last week, let the Huskies to 34 of their 47 points, had over 200 yards passing and 3 TDs.  We were on UConn last week in an easy win and we’re not back off this money train this week.  They’ve covered their last 4 games by an average of 29 points above and beyond the spread and we anticipate another easy win on Saturday vs a bad Temple team.

#367 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +6.5 over UNLV, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some pretty good line value with the Orange in this game.  Our power ratings have UNLV favored by a FG here.  To put this number in perspective, last week the Rebels played host to Fresno State and they were favored by -2.5 to -3 range.  We have Cuse favored by a full TD over Fresno on a neutral field in our ratings.  Others we respect are in the same range.  This line has moved too much based on UNLV’s 59-14 win over Fresno.  While impressive, the fact is Fresno had 4 turnovers (0 for UNLV) which led to a number of very good offensive situations for the Rebels who scored TD’s on drives of 25 yards, 29 yards, a 90 yard punt return, and blocked punt return.  UNLV played with their back up QB Williams (transfer from Campbell) after their starter quit the team early in the week because of an NIL dispute.  Williams looked very good, but now Cuse has film on him and teams often get that one game, rally the troops, boost in this type of situation.  UNLV has faced one Power 4 opponent this year, Kansas, and while they won by a FG, the Rebs were dominated in the stats 6 YPP to 4.1 YPP, 6.4 yards per pass attempt to 4.8, and 5.7 YPC to 3.9.  That’s a Kansas team that is now 1-4 and the Jayhawks were favored by 9 in that game.  Now we have UNLV laying nearly a full TD in this one.  Syracuse rolled over Holy Cross and their lone loss was a 2 point setback vs Stanford in a game they outgained the Cardinal.  The Orange are one of the better passing teams in the nation (#3 averaging 372 passing YPG) and UNLV has struggled vs the pass (60th) despite only playing one QB who is a solid passing threat.  That was last week vs Fresno’s Mikey Keene who threw for over 300 yards on 66% completion rate.  We expect Syracuse QB McCord (former Ohio State starter) to have a big day and keep the Orange in this one all the way.  Take the points.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Three of the four Thursday night match ups this season have gone Under the Total and the average total points scored in those games was 37.5. We expect another grinder on Thursday in this key division battle. Four of the last five meetings between these two NFC South rivals have totaled 47 or fewer points and the average total points scored in those 5 games was 42.5. When playing inside the division, both of these teams tend to play lower scoring games as expected. The average total points scored since the start of last season when TB plays a division opponent was 33.5. The average total points scored since the start of last season when Atlanta plays a division opponent was 41. These teams have combined to play 25 division games since the start of the 2022 season and 16 of those games (64%) have failed to top 40 points. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season scoring just 18.8 PPG and they’ve scored 2 non-offensive TD’s this year so the offensive only scoring numbers are actually worse. They struggle to stay on the field with the 3rd down conversion rate of 26% which is among the worst in the league. TB’s offense has been better scoring wise (24 PPG) but they only average 5.4 YPP which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Bucs have had 2 higher scoring offensive outputs this season vs the Eagles and Commanders who are poor defenses ranking 30th and 31st in the NFL in YPP allowed. In their other 2 games vs Detroit & Denver they scored 27 total points. Atlanta’s defense is solid (7th in YPP allowed at 4.9) and they have allowed 26 or fewer points in every game this season (21 PPG allowed average). Low scoring game here.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a solid situational spot for the Cards at home.  They lost last weekend here vs Detroit and played very poorly on offense.  The Lions were a bit desperate as well coming off a home loss vs TB.  The prior week, Arizona destroyed the LA Rams at home 41-10 outgaining LA 7.9 YPP to just 4.7 YPP.  That’s the same Rams team that, while banged up, turned around and beat the 49ers last Sunday.  This will be Arizona’s 3rd straight home game prior to playing 3 of their next 4 on the road so an important game for them here.  Washington is making the long trip west on a short week after upsetting Cincinnati on Monday night 38-33.  The Commanders were outgained in the win 7.3 to 6.2 YPP and on the ground 6.2 YPC to 3.4 YPC.  Arizona’s offense should get back on track here facing a Washington defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in PPG allowed, and dead last in 3rd down conversion rate allowed.  This is Washington’s 3rd road game in the first 4 weeks and we look for this young team to struggle after a win and now on a short week.  The Cards have already faced 2 high level opponents (Buffalo & Detroit) yet their YPP margin is a solid +0.5.  Washington, on the other hand, has been outgained on the year with a YPP margin of -0.7 which is 8th worst in the NFL despite their 2-1 record.  This is a huge home game for Arizona and we’ll call for them to win this one by more than a FG.

#271 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

The Bengals are 0-3 but they’ve outgained every opponent on YPP basis and they sit at 7th in the NFL in YPP margin.  This is an absolute must win for the Bengals as they cannot afford to drop to 0-4.  In their only other road game this season Cincy lost 26-25 @ Kansas City but had more yardage and better YPP numbers than the host Chiefs in that one.  KC got a late pass interference call on 4th and long vs Cincinnati that set them up for the game winning FG.  Last week the Bengals lost 38-33 vs Washington but once again, they completely outplayed the Commanders with 435 to 356 yards along with outgaining them by +1.1 YPP.  They are back at full strength offensively with WR Higgins back and they should big success vs a Carolina defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down conversion percentage.  Carolina lost first 2 games (Saints & Chargers) by combined score of 73-13 and then made the switch last week to Andy Dalton at QB.  The Panthers looked much better and picked up their first win of the season.  However, we often see a team have a 1 game boost when switching QB’s with the team rallying.  They caught the Raiders in a rough spot as well after upsetting Baltimore on the road a week earlier despite getting drastically outplayed in the stats.  The entire problem for Carolina was not simply the QB situation.  They have won only 3 of their last 20 games and now facing a desperate team that many considered a Super Bowl contender prior to the season.  Cheap price here as well at -4.5.  If this game would have been played a few weeks ago it definitely would have been north of a TD and possibly double digits.  Bengals on Sunday.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win.  We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke.  Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving.  The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU).  Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns.  The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games.  The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive.  The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense.  Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed.  They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game.  Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards.  MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers.  UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week.  We expect a big effort from the Heels.  North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings.  They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4.  We like UNC to win this game outright.

#166 ASA PLAY ON UAB +4.5 over Navy, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is one of the best situational spots on the board in our opinion.  UAB had last week off so 2 full weeks to prepare for Navy’s offense which is key since this is not an offense most teams see on a weekly basis.  Navy, on the other hand, is coming off a big upset win over Memphis 56-44 last week and they have Air Force next week.  We were on Navy last week in that spot as Memphis was in a poor situation on the road for the 2nd straight week after upsetting Florida State a week earlier.  In that game, Memphis actually outgained the Middies by 94 yards and had 11 more first downs.  Prior to facing Memphis in a perfect spot last week, Navy had played FCS Bucknell and Temple, one of the worst FBS teams.  Now they take the road for the first time this season vs a team that really needs a win after losing @ Arkansas in a fairly close game 37-27 the week before their bye.  Despite their 1-2 record, UAB has outgained their opponents in YPG and YPP margin this season.  Their offense should do some damage vs a tired Navy defense that was on the field for a whopping 95 snaps last Saturday.  When these 2 met last season Navy was a home underdog and upset UAB.  Now they are laying points in the road just a year later which is too large of an adjustment according to our power ratings.  We like UAB here.

#134 ASA PLAY ON UConn -5.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Buffalo is coming off a huge conference upset topping Northern Illinois last week as 14 point dogs.  They topped the Huskies 23-20 in OT despite getting outgained 359 to 184.  They caught NIU coming off a win over Notre Dame in their previous contest so a perfect spot for the Bulls to catch the Huskies.  After that huge win, Buffalo now goes on the road again in a somewhat less meaningful non-conference game @ Connecticut.  The Huskies are playing solid football right now coming off a 48-14 home win over FAU last weekend.  Dating back to the end of last year, UConn has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Maryland and @ Duke.  The offense is very confident right now, especially at home where they’ve scored 111 points in 2 games this season.  The Huskies are averaging 6.4 YPP and are one of the better rushing teams in the nation 242 YPG rushing on 5.6 YPC.  The Buffalo offense (averaging just 4.5 YPP – 123rd in the nation) will have trouble keeping up in this one.  The offense can’t really hang their hat on anything as they rank 99th in rushing and 126th in passing.  The Bulls defense ranks 71st vs the run this season and could run out of gas in this one after being on the field for 85 plays and 36+ minutes in last week’s upset.  The Huskies have played the tougher schedule so far this year and they have a +125 YPG and +0.8 YPP differentials while Buffalo is -55 YPG and +0.2 YPP.  We think UConn is a bit undervalued right now because they haven’t been a very good program as of late.  Head coach Jim Mora Jr definitely has the Huskies headed in the right direction.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite.  Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one).  Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92.  Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game.  The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half.  4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach.  Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches.  They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run.  KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7.  OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above.  OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19.  Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining.  They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48.  On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated.  These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2.  Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss.  Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset.  This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. 

#107 ASA PLAY ON Washington +2.5 over Rutgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Huskies have played the tougher schedule to date and have the much better overall stats.  After 4 games, UW is 12th nationally in YPG and YPP margin outgaining their opponents by +220 YPG and by +3.3 YPP.  Compare that to Rutgers, who has played the much weaker schedule, with the Knights sitting at +125 YPG and +1.5 YPP.  Washington played their first Big 10 game last weekend and dominated Northwestern holding the Cats to 112 total yards on just 2.1 YPP in that 24-5 win.  Their lone loss came vs an undefeated Washington State team 24-19 in a game the Huskies outgained the Cougars 452 to 381 and were stopped at the 1-yard line which ended the game.  Rutgers is 3-0 but they’ve played a cupcake schedule – ranked 193rd strength of schedule by Sagarin who includes FCS teams – thus the Scarlet Knights slate this year is easier than a good number of FCS teams.  They opened the season with a win over FCS Howard and then took out Akron who is rated as the 4th worst FBS team per Sagarin.  Last week Rutgers upset Va Tech on the road 26-23.  However, the Hokies won the stat sheet averaging 5.9 YPP to 5.5 for Rutgers.  The problem was, VT had 3 turnovers which led to Rutgers running 77 offensive snaps to just 54 for the Hokies.  Even with that, the Knights couldn’t pull away and won on a late FG with under 2:00 minutes remaining.  Now they come home a bit overvalued with their 3-0 record.  The better team is getting points here (better YPP on both sides of the ball), if they can cope with the long travel spot, we think Washington will win this game outright.  

#106 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -17.5 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll need to watch the weather closely here with Hurricane Helene on the gulf side Thursday night which could affect the weather here.  Right now it looks like it should be OK with 10 to 15 MPH winds and not much, if any, rain during the game.  Va Tech has been a disappointment so far this season.  Tabbed as a team that could compete for the ACC title, they sit at just 2-2 with a road loss @ Vandy and home loss vs Rutgers.  They are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming vs a bad Old Dominion team that has yet to win a game.  The Hokies are outside the top 65 in both total offense and total defense and their YPP margin is barely above water at +0.4.  Tonight they face a Miami team that ranks in the top 10 in both total offense (2nd) and total defense (10th) on the season.  The Canes YPP differential is 3rd best in the country at +4.4.  They have won each of their games by at least 24 points and they are winning by an average of +39 PPG.  That includes road wins @ Florida and @ USF.  Last week @ South Florida, a game we thought was very dangerous for the Canes, Miami simply dominated in their 50-15 win with almost 600 yards on 9.4 YPP.  That was vs a USF team that gave Alabama all they could handle on the road this year trailing just 13-12 in the 4th quarter before the Tide picked up some late TD’s.  VT will have big time struggles on offense here as they rely fairly heavily on the run.  They are not a great passing team ranking outside the top 90 in passing YPG, completions per game, and completion percentage.  Problem is, the Miami defense has been a brick wall holding opponents to 64 YPG rushing on 2.5 YPC, top 10 in both stats.  This line isn’t all that crazy as last year Miami was a 9 point favorite @ Va Tech and won.  That would mean this season we’d expect Miami to be around a 15 to 17 point favorite which is where they are + the Canes are light years better this year than last season.  We’re not sure that’s been factored in enough here.  Lay it with Miami on Friday Night.

ASA play on Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ NY Giants, 8:20 PM ET - We like the Cowboys to bounce back here off of two tough losses to the Saints and Ravens. New York meanwhile is off a win over the Browns as a big underdog. The Cowboys have owned this series with the Giants with a 13-1 SU record the last 14 meetings and an average +/- in those games of +16PPG. Dallas has covered the spread in six straight meetings versus New York. Last year in the two clashes the Cowboys won 40-0 and 49-17. They outgained the Giants 905/343 in total yards. Dallas was outplayed badly by the Saints two weeks ago, then caught a desperate 0-2 Ravens team last week that had to win. New York was thoroughly beaten by the Vikings in Week 1 then lost to the Commanders, and beat a bad Cleveland team last week. Despite playing much better competition, the Yards Per Play differential is near even for these two teams. The Cowboys have a negative YPP number of minus -0.7. The Giants are minus -0.5YPP. The Dallas D is soft in the middle, but the Giants have a below average rushing attack. New York’s pass defense will be hard pressed to stop the Cowboys and if this game turns into a shootout the G-men don’t have a shot at covering.

#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser.  Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags.  They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP.  The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases.  This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team.  The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league.  The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable.  Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve.  The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it.  Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost.  The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game.  They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter.  Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards.  This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 46.5 Points - Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, when you make this wager, we recommend you wait until close to kickoff to bet it as the TV totals have been fluctuating up with public money close to the start of the game. The Chiefs have some injury concerns offensively with their top two running backs out, which prompted the signing of Kareem Hunt to the practice squad. KC will start Samaje Perine who was mainly used as a 3rd down back. The Chiefs are also lacking depth at the WR position with Brown on the IR. Yes, Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, but this will be a tough matchup for KC against a stout Falcons defense. The Falcons are allowing 4.8YPP (8th), 4.1-Yards Per Rush and the 8th fewest passing yards per game. On the other side of the football, Atlanta will need to stick to its bread and butter by using the run to open up the pass. Ball control will be paramount for the Falcons, in order to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands for as little as possible. Atlanta’s offense is averaging a modest 5.7-Yards Per Play through two games, and rank middle of the pack in most offensive categories. The Chiefs defense is better than their overall statistics. The Chiefs have faced two dynamic offenses in the Ravens and Bengals. KC is giving up 386YPG but are better in terms of Yards Per Play at 5.9YPP. The Falcons offense looked good last week against the Eagles after putting up just 10-points against the Steelers in week 1. Philly did not pressure QB Cousins and let him pick them apart late in the game. Kansas City was 3rd in sacks per game in 2023 and 3rd in sack percentage. The Chiefs are 9th in Yards Per Point allowed, the Falcons are 12th. KC is perceived as a high scoring team, but the reality is they were 14th in PPG last season overall, and put up 21.3PPG on the road. Atlanta is better offensively this season with Cousins, but this team averaged just 18.9PPG a year ago.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points - Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Despite scoring only 16 points last Sunday, Detroit went up and down field on the Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Lions tallied 460 yards and crossed midfield 10 times!  They reached the red zone 7 times and only scored 1 TD.  Those yardage numbers attached to an average yards per point efficiency would have put Detroit north of 30 points in that game.  Because of last week’s struggles deep in Tampa territory, the Lions currently rank 28th in the league in red zone conversion rate after ranking 2nd in that stat a year ago.  We expect them to move the ball well again this week vs a poor Arizona defense but look for the Lions to take advantage and put plenty of points on the board Sunday.  Arizona’s offense looks very good early in the season scoring 28 and 41 points in their 2 games this season.  The Cards rank 5th in the NFL averaging over 6 YPP and they are averaging 43 yards per possession which is #1 in the NFL.  Arizona’s defense looked solid last week vs a Rams offense that is depleted beyond belief with their 2 top WR’s out along with most of their offensive line.  A week earlier, the Cards allowed Buffalo to score 34 points on 6.1 YPP.  We see similar results for the Lions in this one.  Last week’s Detroit total was set at the exact same number (currently 51.5) despite playing a TB team that has a better defense than Arizona but is not as explosive on offense.  Last week’s low scoring game sets this one up nicely with a total that is set too low.  Perfect scoring conditions indoors in Phoenix lead to a shootout on Sunday.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

#398 ASA PLAY ON Navy +9.5 vs. Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Navy is the play here as a rested, a potential rush doubling underdog, at home, facing a Memphis team off a HUGE win over Florida State. Navy is once again one of the best rushing offenses in the nation at 298 rushing YPG. Overall, the Mid’s are averaging 6.9YPP (19th) while allowing just 4.8YPP defensively (48th). Of course, we need to temper our enthusiasm with the Navy’s overall numbers as they have faced Temple and Bucknell. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS with wins over North Alabama, Troy and Florida State. The Tigers rushing D is ranked 13th allowing just 69RYPG but the two FBS teams they faced rank 100th and 126th in rushing offense. Preparing for the Navy hybrid Wing-T offense is not an easy thing to do and Memphis isn’t in a great schedule situation off their upset win (Tigers HC called it “monumental” and “historic”). Last season when these same two games got together in Memphis, the Tigers were 11-point favorites and won by 4-points despite getting outgained in the game. Memphis has been a road favorite just 9 times since 2020 and they have covered 4 of those games. Navy as an underdog is 19-15 ATS since 2020.

#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected.  Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP.  They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st).  The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season.  In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points.  The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB.  Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points.  The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State).  They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game.  Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air.  When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Let’s play Over in this one.

#329 ASA PLAY ON James Madison +10.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Looks like UNC may start their 3rd string QB in this one, Jacolby Criswell, as they search for a passing game.  Criswell entered last week’s game in favor of 2nd stringer Harrell who is struggling to get anything going through the air.  Original starting QB Johnson had a season ending injury in their season opener @ Minnesota.  Last week’s FCS opponent, NC Central, gave UNC everything they could handle despite the final score.  It turned into a blowout win but UNC led just 17-10 in the 4th quarter.  That’s an NC Central team that lost 41-19 vs Elon a week prior.  JMU gets their shot at a high profile opponent here and they had last week off to get ready for this one.  The Dukes should be able to focus on the run defensively in this one vs a one dimensional Tar Heel offense.  UNC ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG, passing attempts per game and completions per game.  With very little passing attack, we think it will be tough for the Heels to pull away in this game.  JMU steps in with a 2-0 record and these two both played Charlotte this season so we have a solid comparison point.  JMU played @ Charlotte, won by 23 points and outgained the 49ers by and impressive +2.9 yards per play.  UNC played host to Charlotte, won by 18 and outgained the 49ers by just +0.4 YPP.  The Tar Heels remain overvalued by the markets with an 0-7-1 ATS run (vs FBS opponents) losing those games by 75 combined points vs the number.  The heels are also just 1-8 ATS their last 9 games when posted as a double digit favorite.  UNC has a huge game on deck vs in-state rival Duke and we like James Madison to keep this one close.  Take the points.

#307/308 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points - Illinois vs Nebraska, Friday at 8 PM ET - It’s the start of Big 10 play for these familiar foes and we look for a low scoring, grinder in Lincoln.  The last 2 seasons these rivals have generated 35 and 27 total points.  Both defenses are very good this season with Nebraska allowing a total of 20 points combined in their 3 games this year while Illinois has allowed 26 combined points in their 3 games.  They each shutdown the good offenses they’ve faced this season with Nebraska giving up just 10 points on 260 yards vs Colorado while Illinois gave up 17 points on 327 yards vs Kansas.  Nebraska looks improved offensively, however they’ve faced some suspect defenses (UTEP, Colorado, and Northern Iowa).  Despite that, the Huskers rank just 56th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In their game vs the Buffs, who do not have a good defense, the Huskers scored 21 offensive points (they had a pick 6 for their 28 points) and just 334 yards.  Freshman QB Raiola has been solid but he now faces a legit defense in his first Big 10 game.  Illinois is in the same boat offensively facing some not so great defensive teams (Eastern Illinois, Kansas, and Central Michigan).  Despite that, the Illini only rank 74th in offensive efficiency (YPP).  In one legit game vs Kansas, the Illini scored 16 offensive points (they had a pick 6 to get to 23 points), and they did not reach 300 total yards.  Both offenses are very slow paced with Illinois ranking 121st in seconds per play and Nebraska 115th.  Lots of defense in this one and we grab the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 39 New England Patriots at NY Jets – 8:20 pm ET -Neither team is very explosive in this match up with the Jets averaging just 5.1 yards per play (20th) while the Pats average 4.6YPP (25th). New York is average in pace of play at 1 play run every 29.4 seconds, the Patriots are the 26th slowest paced team at 32.2 seconds. Defensively both are near league average in terms of yards per play allowed with the Jets allowing 5.4YPP, New England gives up 5.1YPP. It’s obvious what these teams want to do offensively. The Patriots want to limit opponents’ possession with their running game and win tight games with their defense. New England rushes 37.5 times per game which is the 3rd highest rush attempt number in the league. Surprisingly, the Jets only rush it 21.5 times per game, but they effectively use short passes as part of their run package. New York is 23rd in yards per pass attempt at 6.4. New England with QB Brissett are averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 122.5 passing yards per game. NY understandably gave up points and yards in the opener against a very good San Francisco offense. Last week the Jets D looked better allowing 5.3YPP to the Titans and 17-points. The Titans offense rates similar to this Pats O which has managed 16 and 20-points in their first two games. New England’s offense was tied with Carolina for the lowest scoring team in the league a year ago at 13.9PPG. New York’s offense is still a work in progress and the defense hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but this is a great opportunity for them to shine on MNF. Last season these two teams produced total points of 20 and 25. They have combined for 39 or less points in 5 of the last six confrontations. New England has played Under in 12 of their last seventeen games overall, the Jets have hit the Under in 11 of their last seventeen.

ASA play on UNDER 46 Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 pm ET - The Falcons were projected to be a contending team in the NFC this season with a stout defense, a veteran QB in Cousins and a young stud running back in Robinson. They didn’t live up to the billing in week 1 but we expect a better showing here, especially defensively. Falcons QB Cousins (coming off a Achilles injury) was very immobile in the opener against the Steelers. He was 16/26 for 155 yards 1 TD/2 INT. The Dirty Birds put up 226 total yards at 4.7 yards per play and 10-points. Much like the Jets w/Rodgers, look for the Falcons to concentrate on the running game with Robinson and protect Cousins with a short passing scheme. Atlanta was good defensively in W1 allowing 4.2YPP, 270 total yards and just 3.3 yards per rush to the Steelers. Philadelphia beat the Packers in the season opener in a high scoring game which has driven this O/U number up. A big reason that the game ended with so many points was due to the unusual number of big plays that resulted in TD’s. There were two scores of over 67-yards and two of 32+. The Eagles allowed 7.4YPP to the Packers as a result of those big hitters. Philly ran it 38 times against the Packers and with wideout Brown expected to miss this game it should be much of the same against the Falcons. We like Under in this one.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 39 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Despite both teams getting wins last week, the defenses looked much better than the offenses.  New England scored just 16 points vs the Bengals on only 4.5 YPP.  The Pats stuck to the ground game as we expect they will again with 39 rushing attempts and just 24 pass attempts.  Starting QB Brissett is not a QB that strikes fear in opposing defenses and he passed for only 120 yards on 4.8 yards per attempt.  They were the only team in the NFL last week without a an offensive play that went more than 20 yards.  Now they face a very solid Seattle defense with new HC Macdonald who was the coordinator of the Ravens high end defense the last 2 seasons.  The Pats offense will struggle on Sunday.  Seattle’s offense put up 26 points last week but barely averaged 5.0 YPP.  Starting RB Walker accounted for more than one-third of Seattle’s entire offense last week and it looks like he won’t play on Sunday due to an oblique injury.  That’s a big loss for this offense that also prefers to run the ball (33 rush attempts / 25 pass attempts).  New England’s defense is high level.  They completely shut down Cincy’s offense and Joe Burrow (154 yards passing) last week giving up just 10 points on 224 total yards.  New England is 10-6 to the Under last 2 years at home with average total points scored just 36.  This should be an ugly offensive game and we don’t project either team to reach 20 points.  Take the Under

#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that.  Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball.  The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained.  Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards.  QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that.  That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL.  The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage.  They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team.  Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road.  They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP.  The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was.  Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG.  Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread.  Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL.  As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different.  At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks.  He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore.  Cowboys by double digits

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#140 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State +17 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Ducks have been as underwhelming in 2 wins as any team in the country.  While they are 2-0 SU, Oregon is 0-2 ATS losing by an average of almost 4 TD’s each game to the spread!  They seem to be trying to find their way offensively after losing almost 70% of their offensive yards last year including QB Nix to the NFL.  Gabriel (Oklahoma transfer) is the new QB and while he’s been solid, their running game has been nearly non-existent with 107 yards on the ground vs Idaho and 112 last week vs Boise State.  The Broncos had more than double Oregon’s yardage on the ground last week and held the Ducks to 352 total yards.  That’s the same Boise defense that allowed 45 points and 460 yards to Georgia Southern a week earlier.  It looks like Oregon State should control the trenches here.  We mentioned the Ducks struggles to run the ball but that hasn’t been a problem for the Beavers who have outrushed their opponents 599 to 154 through 2 weeks.  The Oregon defense allowed almost 7 YPC last week vs Boise so we look for OSU to have plenty of success running the ball in this game.  Last week many in our industry felt Oregon would bounce back at home vs Boise after almost losing to Idaho.  It didn’t happen as the Ducks were outplayed at home in their tight 37-34 win and if not for a 100 yard kick return AND an 85 yard punt return for TD by Oregon, the Broncos win that game fairly easily.  Now they are laying 17 points on the road against OSU in the Beavers most important game of the season.  We just don’t see it.  Oregon State has covered 4 in a row at home vs Oregon and we’re grabbing the points.  

#142 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2 over West Virginia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - It’s time for the Backyard Brawl when the Pitt Panthers take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Pitt is looking for revenge after a 6-17 loss a year ago. In our opinion, the Panthers are an undervalued team right with a 2-0 SU/ATS record. Pitt opened the season with a resounding home win over Kent State 55-24 as a -24-point chalk. Last week they went to Cincinnati and won 28-27 as a 2-point dog. Pitt hired O-coordinator Kade Bell in the offseason and it’s immediately paying dividends with a unit that’s averaging 534 YPG, 7.2 YPP and rushing for nearly 200 YPG. The Panthers have gotten great QB play out of freshman Eli Holstein (Bama transfer) and running back Desmond Reid who is averaging 8.9 yards/rush. Holstein has thrown for over 300+ yards in the Panthers first two games. We are not sold on this West Virginia team that lost badly in the opener to Penn State 12-34 at home as a +7.5-point underdog, then beat weakling Albany last week 49-14 as a 38-point favorite. If we focus on the game against Penn State, the Neers managed just 246 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards/play. PSU put up 457 yards against West Virginia at 7.6 YPP. Penn State then hosted a bad Bowling Green team last week and allowed 375 total yards and 27-points. West Virginia doesn’t look as good as preseason expectations, and Pittsburgh looks much better than originally thought. Pitt is on a 4-1 ATS run in home games. The Neers had a negative point differential of minus -3.6 PPG on the road last season. We like the Pitt Panthers at home in this rivalry.

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -7 over Arizona, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’ve been underwhelmed by Arizona this year as they transition to a new coaching staff and now play their first road game of the season. The Cats new HC Brennan came over from San Jose State replacing Jedd Fisch who took the head job at Washington. In their first 2 games this season, both at home, Zona topped a terrible New Mexico team 61-39 and then struggled last week with FCS Northern Arizona but ultimately came out on top 22-10. Both scores were a bit misleading as Arizona only led by 10 vs New Mexico late in the 3rd quarter and then were trailing at halftime last week vs NAU. They rolled up big yards on New Mexico, who may have the worst defense in the nation, but that was expected after the Lobos allowed FCS Montana State to put up 567 yards in week 1 loss for NM. Last week the Wildcats only gained 360 total yards vs Northern Arizona who has had 3 consecutive losing seasons at the FCS level entering this year. Two very low level opponents so far for Zona. KSU had a scare last week @ Tulane but found a way to come out on top 34-27. That wasn’t a huge surprise as the Green Wave look very solid again this year after finishing with an 11-3 record last year. So while KSU did struggle in that game, they’ve at least played a team with a pulse and on the road while still finding a way to win. KSU run game has been very good with a solid offensive line, a mobile QB (Avery Johnson) and 2 very solid RB’s. They’ve already rushed for 500 yards on 7.8 YPC in their 2 wins this season. While Arizona’s defense did limit NAU on the ground last week (which they should vs an inferior FCS school) in week 1 they allowed New Mexico to run for 5.5 YPC. KSU is a tough place to play with the Wildcats winning 8 of their last 9 here with all 8 wins coming by at least 13 points. They’ve also covered 7 of those 9 games. We like the stability (same coaching staff & 18 upperclassmen starting) for KSU while Arizona travels for the first time under their new regime. Zona struggled to put teams away at home when favored by -28 and -37 points in their first 2 games and we like Kansas State to win by more than a TD here.

ASA play on UNDER 49 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM ET - Miami has some questions on offense with their top two RB’s likely out (Mostert & Achane). On the other side of the football Miami could have problems pressuring Allen and the Bills with LB Bradley Chubb out and LB Jaelan Phillips less than 100%. Both defenses allowed less than 300 total yards last week against potentially explosive offenses of the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Bills new offensive philosophy is run heavy as we saw in week 1 as they attempted 23 passes and 33 runs in the game against the Cardinals. Last week’s game against the Cardinals was a misleading final as 21 of the combined 62 points came with under 9:00 minutes to play in the game. Arizona averaged 9.6 yards per point, an unusually low number based on league average. The Bills averaged a point scored every 10.4 yards gained which is also significantly better than the 14-yards per point they averaged last season. Both teams played slow last week at 18th and 21st in pace of play. Last year these same two teams were 24th and 26th in POP.  The trend when these rivals met is high scoring games in Buffalo and low scoring affairs in Miami. The last three meetings on this field between these two teams resulted in 35, 40 and 35 total points. We expect a defensive battle and like Under the Total.

ASA play on UNDER 43.5 NY Jets @ San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20 PM ET - The Niners were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL last season at 28.6ppg. On average it took them 13.9 yards/gained to score 1pt. BUT, they faced the 6th easiest schedule against subpar defenses. Late in the season last year the 49ers managed just 17pts versus a similar defense to the Jets in the Ravens D. When New York has the football, it should be a run first approach with RB Hall, a rebuilt O-line and a mindset to protect QB Rodgers in his first game since his injury last year. The Jets still managed 4.2 yards per rush last season when teams stacked the line of scrimmage against them when they didn’t have a QB. The Niners are susceptible to the run as they allowed 4.3YPR last season, 21st most in the NFL. In their 3 playoff games (when it mattered) the 49ers gave up 130, 182 and 136 rushing yards to the Chiefs, Lions & Packers. New York is going to be much better offensively this season with Rodgers than they were last season, but it’s going to be tough sledding in the opener against this San Fran D. SF gave up just 18.8ppg last season, the 4th fewest in the NFL. The Niners were 3rd in Opponents Points per Play at .300. The 49ers red zone D was also one of the best in the league allowing 1.6 TD’s per game. San Fran gave up less than 320ypg last season and 5.1-yards per play, both top 10 numbers. The Jets defense on paper might be the best in the NFL this season. They finished last season 3rd in overall DVOA. NY allowed less than 21ppg and were #1 in the league allowing 4.6 yards per play. The big names in this game have the number set higher than it should be for the public bettors. The Under trends on prime time TV games continues here.

#474 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday at  4:25 PM ET - We know opening day underdogs historically do very well, but we will make an exception here with the Bucs at home against a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Boyles is one of the best defensive minds in the game and has been for years. Washington’s QB Daniels is going to be special, but with a limited scheme early on, against a confusing defense is a tall task to ask in his first start. Tampa Bay gave up yards last season but didn’t give up points allowing just 19.2PPG, the 5th lowest number in the league. The Bucs will pressure Daniels with a pass rush that averaged 2.8 sacks per game last season 8th most. Offensively the Bucs have a new O-coordinator in Liam Coen, the former Rams assistant in 2022. Coen contributed to an offense that ranked among league leaders across those seasons in passing yards per game (248.1; sixth), completions (1,504; 10th), first downs per game (21.4; 10th), third-down conversion rate (41.9%; eighth), goal-to-go efficiency (75.2%; ninth), rushing touchdowns (77; fourth), and fewest sacks allowed (139; eighth). Tampa will rely on QB Mayfield and the dynamic duo at WR of Evans and Godwin against a Commander's defense that was last in the league in passing yards per game allowed at 262. Washington allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st) and Tampa hit for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2023 (10th). Washington has a new system offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff so it’s going to take time for them to adjust with a rookie QB. Tampa ended last season on a 6-2 SU run and narrowly lost to the Lions in the playoffs. Washington closed the year by losing 7 straight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Tampa and we like the Bucs to roll in this home opener.

#465 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We think the Bears are overvalued entering this season.  Their win total jumped from 8.5 to 9.5 and we just don’t see this team as a 9 or 10 win team.  Much of the hype is obviously the QB situation with #1 draft pick Caleb Williams getting the start in this one.  While he is talented, the fact is that rooking QB’s simply aren’t very successful especially early in the season.  Rookie QB’s starting season openers are just 16-35-1 SU and here not only does Williams and the Bears need to buck that trend, they need to win by margin.  Williams is the 19th first overall pick to start in Week 1 at quarterback, and the previous 18 went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29%).  He’ll be facing a totally revamped Tennessee defense with 7 new starters and a new DC so Chicago won’t know what to expect coming into this one.  The Titans offense struggled to throw the ball last season (28th in passing YPG) but that changes in 2024.  New HC Callahan is a very good offensive mind (OC for Bengals last year) and we’ve been hearing QB Levis has been making great progress in this new offense.  He was 11 of 13 passing in the pre-season and the Titan’s offense looked very good averaging 373 YPG.  We realize the pre-season isn’t always a great indicator, but we have no doubt this offense will be much better this season.  The Titans have solid weapons on the outside with Ridley, Hopkins (who looks like he’ll play here) and Boyd.  The Bears have only been favored only 6 times the last 2 seasons and only 2 of those were by -4 or more.  They are just 8-15 ATS as favorite since start of 2019 season.  These 2 teams had very similar records (7-10 & 6-11) last season and identical YPP margins.  This game should be closer to a pick-em in our opinion and we’re getting this above the key number of 3.  Take Tennessee.

#470 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We get a divisional underdog, at home, playing with revenge. I’m not sure what else needs to be said. Overall, underdogs in W1 typically do very well with a 71-53 ATS record going back to 2016. Divisional dogs in Week 1 are 30-18 ATS going back 48 games in that situation. These same two teams met in the regular season finale last year with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The Texans won that game 23-19 as a 1-point favorite on this same field. The Colts had more total yards 360-306, more first downs and a TOP advantage. The game ended with Indianapolis on the 15-yard line going into score. The Colts did it last season with a backup QB in Minshew and now have a healthy Richardson under center. Indy will focus on the ground game here with RB Taylor healthy and one of the best O-lines in the league.  The Colts were 11th in rushing attempts per game last season and 10th in rushing YPG at 121. Houston had very good defensive numbers last season but how much of that was due to playing a soft schedule against some of the league's worst offenses. In fact, the Texans faced 13 offenses ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of DVOA last season. Houston finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite which has happened just 3 times in the past two seasons. They are 1-2 in those games and failed to cover by an average of -10PPG. A lot of hype surrounding Texans QB Stroud and this team, gives us a ton of value with the home team.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Under 41.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The QB positions on both sides are not ideal right now.  Pittsburgh planned to start Russell Wilson but he has a lingering calf issue.  If he plays he won’t be 100% and if he doesn’t it’s inaccurate Justin Fields who has a career completion percentage of barely 60%.  Atlanta plans to start Kirk Cousins who is coming off an achilles injury and hasn’t played since last October.  We don’t expect Cousins to be successful through the air here with zero game time with his new WR’s.  On the other side of the ball, we project both Pittsburgh and Atlanta to be the strengths of each team.  Atlanta has added key pieces with safety Simmons and edge rusher Judon bolstering an already top 10 defense in YPG, YPP, and PPG.  The Birds also have a new HC Morris who is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL so we look for a very good stop unit in Atlanta this season.  Pittsburgh will struggle big time on offense in this game.  The Steelers played both Wilson & Fields quite a bit in the pre-season yet they only scored a total of 32 points in 3 games.  Atlanta averaged just 19 PPG last season (26th in the NFL) and will most likely rely heavily on the run in order to protect Cousins early in the season.  Pittsburgh averaged just 18 PPG so we have 2 bottom 7 scoring offenses from last season going at it here.  Steeler games averaged 38 total points last year and Atlanta games averaged 41 total points.  Pittsburgh has been a huge money maker playing Unders in their road games with a 50-20 record to the Under the last 9 years.  Low scoring game here.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada pick-em over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Nevada has been a surprise this year taking a good SMU team to the wire and then turning around the next week and beating Troy on the road as 8 point underdogs (we were on Troy unfortunately).  We felt Nevada was in a really tough spot last week after nearly upsetting SMU then having to travel across the country and play in the heat and humidity @ Troy (Alabama).  The Trojans have an outstanding program (23-5 record the previous 2 seasons) and the Wolfpack got down 14-0 early and battled back for a 28-26 win.  Very impressive.  The Wolfpack have run the ball very well with 214 yards rushing last week vs good Troy defense on 6.3 YPC.  The week prior they outgained SMU on the ground by +0.5 YPC and last week outgained Troy on the ground by +1.0 YPC.  That rushing success should continue on Saturday as they face Georgia Southern defense that allowed 371 yards rushing on over 10 YPC vs Boise last week.  GSU gave Boise a decent run losing 56-45 but it really wasn’t that close as the Broncos outgained the Eagles by almost 200 yards despite running 20 fewer offensive snaps.  The final count on a yards per play basis was Boise 9.9, GSU 5.4.  We like Nevada’s new HC Choate who led a very good Texas defense the previous season and before that had an impressive run as the head man @ Montana State.  He has this team playing hard and with confidence.  They should catch Georgia Southern in a tough spot here after giving everything they had last week trying to upset Boise and now making the long travel west.  GSU is not trustworthy laying points on the road (or pick-em) as they’ve only won 7 of their last 29 road tilts outright.  As you might expect looking at those numbers, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS as road favorites since 2015 (lined opened with GSU favored and now pick-em).  Nevada gets the win on Saturday.

#332 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -9 over South Carolina, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both won in last week’s season openers but we were less than impressed with South Carolina.  The Gamecocks trailed midway through the 4th quarter, scored a TD and then held on for dear life to win 23-19 as a 20+ point favorite vs Old Dominion.  We could argue that Old Dominion actually outplayed South Carolina in that game with a 305 to 288 total yardage edge despite the Gamecocks running 17 more offensive snaps.  Because of that, the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of the Monarchs (4.2 YPP to 3.2 YPP).  Looking even closer, South Carolina scored 2 TD’s in the game and those points came on drives of 3 yards and 6 yards after ODU turnovers.  The Monarchs 2 TD’s were both 75 yard drives.  SC was a heavy favorite, had a +3 turnover margin in the game and still almost lost at home.  Very concerning.  Kentucky rolled over Southern Miss last week 31-0 in a game that was called for bad weather early in the 3rd quarter.  New Wildcat QB Vandagriff, former 5* transfer from Georgia, looked solid completing 12 of 18 passes with 3 TD’s in just over one half of football.  The Cats completely controlled the trenches with 148 yards rushing (they were on pace for close to 300 if game was suspended) while holding USM to just 5 yards rushing.  Meanwhile, South Carolina failed to dominate on the line of scrimmage averaging just 3.1 YPC vs ODU while allowing 3.2 YPC.  This is a revenger after South Carolina won at home last season 17-14 vs Kentucky despite getting whipped in the trenches with the Wildcats averaging 4.5 YPC while holding SC to 1.5 YPC.  Kentucky’s 3 turnovers were the difference in that game.  Head coach Stoops was very upset after that loss and has been pointing toward this game early in the 2024 schedule. “That’s a very difficult loss for us right there. We didn't do a better job of putting them in position to be successful,” Stoops said.  We like Kentucky to win this one by double digits. 

#306 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +3 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have Cuse as a slight favorite so we like the value with the home team here.  Tech steps in with a 2-0 record after beating Florida State in Ireland and then topping Georgia State at home last weekend.  Because of those wins this line is off in our opinion.  Their 24-21 win over FSU doesn’t look as impressive after the Noles were rolled at home by Boston College last week.  Their win last Saturday over Georgia State was nothing great vs a Panther team that lost most of their key players and is working under a brand new coaching staff.  GSU had 2 first and goal situations inside the Georgia Tech 3 yard line and came away with just 3 points.  Syracuse topped a solid Ohio team, one of the top teams in the MAC, at home last week 38-22.  We were a little concerned by their rush defense in that win, but the offense looked very solid with nearly 500 total yards.  New starting QB McCord, former Ohio State starter, threw for 354 yards and 4 TD’s.  He should look good on Saturday vs a GT defense that faced 2 poor passing QB’s in their first 2 games.  Last year this ACC match up was played @ Georgia Tech, because of injuries the Orange had to start a tight end at QB, and the line was -6.5 in favor of the host (Tech won by 9).  Now the line has shifted only 3 points and Cuse will be at home and actually playing one of the better signal callers in the ACC at QB.  GT has won only 14 of last 44 road games dating back to 2015 and they are just 2-9 ATS as RF during that same span.  We like Syracuse at home as a dog.

#304 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern -2.5 over Duke, Friday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern should have some extra motivation here after getting rolled 38-14 @ Duke last season.  Don’t be scared off by that final score as the Blue Devils are a completely different team this season.  Their QB in that game Riley Leonard is now starting at Notre Dame.  Duke lost nearly their entire offensive line (119th in returning starts) and defensive line from a year ago.  They are 130th in lettermen returning and their coaching staff has completely turned over with Manny Diaz as the head man after Mike Elko left for Texas A&M.  The Wildcats have the much more stable situation here with 15 starters back, the 4th most returning lettermen in college football, along with the same coaching staff.  NW had a solid win in week 1 beating MAC favorite Miami OH 13-6 and holding the Redhawks to just 40 yards rushing on 24 carries.  That’ll be a problem for Duke who struggled big time to run the ball vs FCS Elon tallying just 59 yards rushing on 27 carries.  Duke new QB Murphy had a solid day but with winds expected to be around 20 MPH right along the Lake Michigan shore (NW’s makeshift stadium this year is only a few yards from Lake Michigan) on Friday night, the team that runs the ball better should come out on top here.  We think that’s Northwestern.

ASA play on OVER 48.5 Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Friday 8:20 PM ET (Brazil) - We are typically reluctant to play Overs on prime-time TV games but will make an exception here. These two teams are much better on one side of the football than the other and it starts with the offenses for both teams. When it comes to DVOA rankings the Packers had the 6th best offense in the NFL a year ago, the Eagles were 9th. The Packers averaged 5.7PPG on offense good for 6th best, the Eagles ranked 13th in Yards Per Play at 5.4. Both teams had explosive offenses. It took Philadelphia on average 14.3 yards gained per point (7th), Green Bay averaged 145.3YPPT (11th). On the defensive side of the football both teams struggled. The Eagles were 4th from the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA, the Packers weren’t much better ranking 27th. Philadelphia gave up 25.6PPG on the season, while Green Bay allowed 21.4PPG. The Packers numbers are slightly better than they should be as they faced 12 opponents last season that ranked in the bottom half of the league in total offense. The Eagles allowed 30+ points in 5 of their last eight games last season and Green Bay with QB Love scored 30+ in 3 of their last five games. We expect both teams to get into the mid-to-high 20’s in this game which will push this Over the number.

#454 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -2 over Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:20 PM ET – Game being played in Brazil - We think the Eagles will have a huge chip on their shoulders entering this season after losing 6 of their last 7 games a year ago including an embarrassing 32-9 loss in the playoffs to Tampa Bay.  The fact is, they were very banged up down the stretch, including QB Hurts who was nowhere near 100% in the 2nd half of the season.  They also upgraded big time at both coordinator positions which will help dramatically in 2024.  Kellen Moore will call the offensive plays after successful stints at Dallas and LA Chargers where his teams averaged 26 points in his 5 years as coordinator.  Vic Fangio, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, will handle the stop unit.  The Eagles fell off a cliff last year after finishing #1 in total defense in 2022 they dropped to 26th last season and we expect a big improvement under Fangio.  The Packers are a bit overvalued in our opinion.  Let’s not forget this team was just 9-8 last season, squeaked into the playoffs at a 7 seed after beating Carolina, Minnesota (with Nick Mullens at QB), and then Chicago to close out the season.  Their win over Dallas in the playoffs was impressive but how good is this team?  Their defense needs to take a huge step forward under new DC Hafley (HC at Boston College last year) after finishing 22nd in total defense each of the last 2 seasons.  The favorite has been money in the bank in NFL International Games with a SU record of 33-10-1 and a spread record of 29-15 (66%).  We’ll call for Philly to win this one by a FG or more. 

ASA play on UNDER 47.5 Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship which the Chiefs won 17-10. That game had an O/U of 44 with the Under cashing easily. In that game, the Ravens managed 336 total yards and 6.3YPP. They dominated time of possession 37:30 compared to the Chiefs 22:30, but three turnovers to zero doomed the Ravens chances. Kansas City had a tough time moving the ball against this Ravens defense with 319-total yards of offense at 4.5YPP. While both of these offenses get most of the attention, it’s the defenses that really set them apart from the rest of the league. Baltimore was 1st in defensive DVOA a year ago, KC was 7th. The Ravens allowed just 4.6YPP last season, the 2nd lowest number in the league behind the Jets. The Chiefs D gave up only 4.8PPP which ranked 5th. Teams had a very hard time sustaining drives against both teams with the Chiefs allowing the 5th lowest 3rd down conversion percentage at 35.53%, the Ravens ranked 9th at 36.52%. On average it took teams 18.4 yards gained to score 1-points against Baltimore which was best in the NFL. Kansas City wasn’t far behind that at 17.6-Yards Per Point. Another misconception about the Chiefs is that they are an Over team, when in fact they have stayed Under in 15 of their last 20 regular season home games, including 7 straight. KC is Under at home against the AFC in 9 of their last 10. The Ravens have stayed Under in 5 of their last 7 regular season road games and 7 of their last 11. There will be a lot of noise surrounding the two starting QB’s here in Jackson/Mahomes and the offenses but don’t buy into it and side with the defenses and Under.

#219 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +17 over Florida State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This line was +21 last week prior to FSU losing to Georgia Tech so we’ve lost some value but still feel this number is too high. The most concerning thing to us about FSU’s loss last week was their strength on both sides of the ball was supposed to be in the trenches and they were pushed around by the Yellow Jackets. Tech averaged 5.3 YPC in that win with the Seminoles only averaging 3.2 YPC. We don’t think it will get any easier here vs a BC team that ran for 152 yards on FSU last year and brings back nearly everyone. In fact, the Eagles nearly pulled the upset last season losing 31-29 and they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Noles 457 to 351 in that loss. New HC Bill O’Brien takes over a BC team that returns 81% of their total yards from last year (20th nationally) and 67% of their total tackles from a year ago (39th). That’s from a team that had a winning season and won a bowl game a year ago. QB Castellanos is back and he gave FSU fits last year throwing for 305 yards while rushing for 95. Last year’s FSU team was MUCH better than this year’s team and on the other side we expect the Eagles to be improved this year. Veteran coach O’Brien has a game’s worth of film on the Seminoles while Florida State won’t know what to expect with BC’s new coaching staff. Over the last decade, teams that are playing their first game of the season vs a team that already has a game under their belt have covered 56% of the time. Much more important to have game film on your opponent rather than having the experience of already playing a game. While we do expect FSU to come out on top at home, we don’t see a 2 TD+ win. BC will give them some problems here. Take the points.

#218 ASA PLAY ON USC +4.5 over LSU, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Las Vegas, much closer to USC (4 hour drive). Both teams enter this game having lost a majority of their offensive production from last season. LSU lost Heisman QB Daniels, their top RB and their top 2 WR’s, both 1st round NFL picks. USC lost QB Williams, their top RB, and top 2 WR’s as well. Both offensive lines should be strong this season. Each finished with nearly identical defensive numbers, both outside the top 100 in total defense and outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency. We’ve heard good things about USC’s defense coming out of camp and we expect them to improve dramatically under new DC Lynn who came over from UCLA. Lynn improved the Bruins defense in one season from 87th in total defense in 2022 to 11th in 2023. That same UCLA defense allowed just 19 PPG last year after giving up 31 PPG the previous season. LSU is a bit concerned about their defensive line which normally doesn’t happen in Baton Rouge. The Tigers D-line is a group that features 10 total first-year players within LSU's football program. We look for new USC QB Moss to have a big season. In his one start last year, Moss threw for 372 yards and 6 TD’s in USC’s bowl win over Louisville. HC Lincoln Riley’s offense is always humming no matter who the QB is. He turns QB’s into Heisman contenders. We have these teams rated closer to even and we trust Riley much more than LSU HC Kelly. Riley is 6-1 ATS in his career as a dog of more than 3 points and Kelly’s teams have lost to FSU to open each of the last 2 seasons. We think this one goes to the wire so we’re grabbing the points.

#209/210 ASA PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Notre Dame vs Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Defenses should dominate here especially in the trenches.  Notre Dame and A&M have veteran defensive lines and the weak spot of each opposing offense in on the line.  Notre Dame is banged up on the offensive line and will not start a single upper classmen.  Two freshmen will start on the left side of the line and the total number of career college starts for this group is less than 10!  They are facing a veteran A&M defensive line that most have ranked in the top 5 nationally.  New Irish QB Leonard will be running for his life on Saturday and we don’t see any help from Notre Dame’s rushing attack.  Last year’s leading rusher Estime (1,300 yards) is gone and his “green” offensive line will be facing a defense that finished in the top 15 in rushing YPG and YPC allowed.  On the other side, A&M’s offense will also have problems here vs an Irish defense we have rated in the top 10 entering the season.  They also have a top 10 defensive line facing an Aggie offensive front that struggled last season and has 3 new starters this year.  A&M starting QB Wiegman was injured early last season and has only started 8 games in his career.  Both offenses have new OC’s so each are implementing a new system which can take some time to perfect.  The head coaches in this game, Elko for A&M and Freeman for ND, are both defensive minded.  From camp reports both defenses are well ahead of the offenses coming into this game and we look for low scoring, grinder here.  Take the Under.

#198 ASA PLAY ON Troy -8 over Nevada, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great line value on Troy in this game.  The Trojans were -15.5 a week ago in this match up and because Nevada played SMU close last week as a 27 point dog, this line has dropped through 2 key numbers 14 & 10.  Getting the Trojans at home under -10 is a very solid value.  Looking closer at Nevada’s 29-24 loss at home vs SMU last week reveals that the game shouldn’t have been all that close.  SMU was +6 first downs, +110 total yards, and nearly outgained the Wolfpack by 2.0 YPP.  Now after leaving it all on the field on Saturday, Nevada must travel across the country to play in 90 degree heat.  A tough ask for a team who had a win total of just 2.5 games this year, the lowest in college football.  Troy is replacing many of their key players plus they have a new coaching staff in place which should be a benefit as Nevada won’t be sure what to expect on either side of the ball.  Meanwhile, the Trojan staff has a full game of film on Nevada and that has proven to be beneficial.  In fact, over the last decade, teams playing their first game of the season vs teams that have already played a game have covered 56% of the time, so advantage Troy here.  We expect another high level defense from Troy this season who finished in the top 10 nationally last season in efficiency (YPP allowed).  Nevada will struggle offensively in this game.  Despite their new coaching staff (Nevada has a new staff as well), Troy is simply a solid program that has a record of 23-5 the last 2 seasons.  The Trojans win this one by double digits.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates.  Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State.  We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man.  He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11.  While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense.  Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday.  Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it.  The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards.  Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%.  It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery.  We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season.  Miami seems to be overrated every year.  They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field  The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season.  The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less).  We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.

ASA play on UNDER 56.5 Western Michigan at Wisconsin, 9 PM ET - The number on this game opened slightly higher at 56.5 and has since moved down in some books to a current line of 56. That spread on this game is 24 which means the oddsmakers are projecting Wisconsin to score 40 and Western Michigan 16. We don’t think either team gets to that number based on last season’s results. Wisconsin returns 71% of their defensive production from a unit last season that allowed 344YPG (35th), 5.0YPP (26th) and 20.2PPG (19th). This Badgers defense held 7 opponents to 17 or less points in 2023. Offensively the Badgers will rely on their running game which averaged 4.6YPR last season (38th) and 160RYPG (60th). Wisconsin had the 22nd rated 3rd down conversion percentage in college football last season which means extended drives for the Badgers offense. Wisconsin did not score 40+ points in a game last season and averaged 23.5PPG (87th) and lacked big plays with an offense that averaged 5.2YPP (79th). UW averaged just 6.1YPP passing which ranked 117th. Western Michigan returns 7 starters from last season’s defense and added a few power conference transfers. This Bronco defense was not very good a season ago, ranking 100th or worse in several key categories, but should be improved this season with the returning experience. Offensively we don’t see this Bronco putting up many points in this opener. WMU was 92nd in scoring a year ago at 22.6PPG, 107th in YPP at 4.8 and lacked explosiveness either running or passing. Clearly the dominant team in this matchup is the Badgers and we are betting their 5-1 home Under streak continues here.

#142 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We like the host getting points in this one as we expect the Gophers to win outright. These 2 met last season @ UNC and the line was -7 in favor of the Heels which tells us Minnesota should probably be a slight favorite here and maybe even more when we look closer at what these teams have returning. Minnesota controlled the trenches in last year’s loss averaging 5.5 yards per carry compared to just 2.8 for UNC. The Heels couldn’t run the ball at all on this Gopher defense and will have a tougher time this year with 4 new starting offensive linemen, none who have ever started a CFB game. Minnesota, on the other hand, returns most of their front 7 which shut down this running game last year. The Tar Heels don’t have top 5 pick QB Drake Maye to rely on this season after accounted for 448 of UNC’s 518 yards last year. Head coach Mack Brown said they may go with a 2 QB rotation here with A&M transfer Johnson (who is OK at best) and returning back up Harrell who is not a great passer. If UNC struggles to run the ball again do we trust these QB’s to carry the load behind a new offensive line? We don’t. On the other side of the ball, the Gophs should have one of the better offensive fronts in the Big 10 with 4 starters back including their LT who is a potential 1st round pick. Their top RB Taylor, who ran for 138 yards on 6.3 YPC vs UNC last year, was banged up a bit in camp but looks like he’ll be ready to go. Even if not, they’ve brought is some solid RB’s and HC Fleck considers that room very deep. New QB Brosmer, who transferred from New Hampshire, was a finalist for the FCS’s version of the Heisman last year and has been solid in camp by all reports. He shouldn’t have a ton of pressure on him to carry the load here if Minny can run the ball like we think they will. Minnesota should control the trenches on both sides of the ball in this one and we have them as a slight home favorite here. We will take the value with them as a dog.

ASA play on UNDER 55.5 SMU at Nevada, Saturday, 8 PM ET - Nevada won just 2 games a season ago and has a futures market of 2.5 wins this season. That alone tells us just how bad this team will be again in 2024. The Wolfpack have many deficiencies including an offense that averaged just 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th) last season. They return starting QB Lewis but that’s not a great thing considering he threw for just 1,313 yards last season with 2 TD’s to 6 INT’s and had a passer rating of 33.3. The Wolfpack will rely on their running game with two returning starters in the backfield. This Nevada offense produced 14 or less points in 6 games a year ago and our projections have them scoring around that number here. SMU has 8 starters returning on offense that scored 36.4PPG a year ago (10th) and averaged 446YPG (18th). But they weren’t necessarily a big play offense ranking 37th in Yards Per Play at 6.0. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th) and will use their advantage in the trenches against a Wolfpack defense that had problems stopping the run a year ago. SMU allowed just 19.2PPG a season ago while allowing just 4.5YPP (7th). Nevada will be better defensively with new coach Jeff Choate, but the Pack will struggle to score. SMU has no reason to run the score up late in this game and will look to stay healthy. It all adds up to an UNDER bet.

#305/306 ASA PLAY ON Under 55.5 Points – Florida State vs Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We expect both offenses to run the ball a lot in this game which will keep the clock running and shorten the game.  FSU averaged 32.8 PPG last season but we expect a decent drop off this year, especially early in the season.  That’s because the Noles lost nearly all of their production from last year and will rely on transfers at the skill positions learning a new system.  Their new QB is DJ Uiagalelei who had previous stops at Clemson and Oregon State.  He’s not overly accurate, completing only 57% of his passes last year which ranked him outside the top 90.  He’s working with 2 transfer receivers from Alabama and LSU who logged very little time last season.  HC Norvell has said he wants to rely on the running game more this season and we expect that here.  Georgia Tech loves to run the ball.  They led the ACC in rushing last season and they averaged nearly 40 carries per game.  They return 4 starters on the offensive line, their mobile QB King is back and their top RB returns.  More of the same this year for Tech as they keep it on the ground.  They’ll be facing an FSU defense that allowed less than 20 PPG a year ago and while they did lose some key defenders, they’ve recruited very well (and some key transfer portal additions on defense) so we don’t look for much of a drop off on that side of the ball.  Tech’s defense was not good a year ago.  They did upgrade at defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci from Duke who had the Blue Devils in the top 20 in scoring defense last year.  This game is in Ireland and the long travel hasn’t helped the offenses in past games played here.  In fact, there have been 4 games played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin and the average points scored in those games has been 48.8.  Under is our lean on Saturday.  

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - We’ll side with the better QB, the better defense, and the more experienced coach getting points in the Super Bowl. We’re all aware of the success KC has as an underdog. The Chiefs are on a tear that's seen them go 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. They were the outright winner in 15 of these games. Some of that predates Mahomes but if we look at the games where he was QB and the Chiefs were underdogs they are 10-1-1 ATS including winning 9 of those 12 games outright. The road KC took to get here was by far more impressive than what the Niners did. Mahomes and company beat a very good Miami team handily, then went on the road and beat the hottest team in the NFL (Buffalo) and followed that up with a road win at what most, including us, considered the best team in the NFL (Baltimore). Meanwhile, San Fran struggled to win home games vs 7 seed Green Bay and Detroit. Truth be told, the 49ers probably shouldn’t even be here as they led for only 27 minutes in those 2 games combined (out of 120 total minutes). SF QB Purdy is solid but is completely inexperienced in this spot and has looked a bit frazzled at times the first 2 games of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in 17 playoff games (14-3 SU record) and 3 Super Bowls. Huge QB edge to KC. The Chiefs have better overall numbers defensively (PPG, YPG, YPP) and they have played very well during this playoff run holding a potent Miami offense to 7 points, Buffalo put up 24 but on only 4.7 YPP, and they held the Ravens to 10 points in Baltimore. The Niners gave up 31 points last week to Detroit and 21 to Green Bay although the Packers blew some opportunities and only punted 1 time in the game. The KC defense gave up 11 points less than SF in the playoffs despite playing an extra game! Over their last 6 games SF’s defense allowed 29, 33, 10 (vs Washington), 21, 21, and 31 points. Not great. KC’s impressive run through the AFC (winning as underdogs) puts them in a good spot historically. In fact, in the last 20 seasons, there have been 8 teams that won outright in Championship game as an underdog and those teams went on to win 6 times (out of 8) in the Super Bowl. On top of that, dogs have covered 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls and we’re confident it will happen again this year. We like KC to win this game outright so take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY NFL 10* ON Over 51 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 50.5 in the Green Bay vs San Francisco game that landed on 45 but weather turned out to be a big issue in that game. That won’t be the case on Sunday as we are looking at temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation in San Francisco on Sunday. Even with the poor conditions last week (was worse than we anticipated) a GB missed 40 yard FG in the 4th quarter kept that one from being tied at 24-24 which would have led to an Over. The Packers were also stopped on downs at the SF 10-yard line in the first half & the Niners missed a FG to end the first half and both of those results took points off the board. SF’s QB Purdy had a very poor game and seemed to struggle throwing the ball in the heavy rain. He was held under 60% completion rate for only the 3rd time this season and the first 2 were vs Cleveland & Baltimore, 2 top 5 pass defenses. Now he’s facing a Detroit defense that ranks 31st vs the pass and we look for Purdy to have big time success in this one. Over their last 5 games alone, the Lions pass defense has allowed Vikings 4th string QB Mullens to pass for 411 & 396 yards, Dak Prescott 345 yards, Matt Stafford 367 yards, and Baker Mayfield 349 yards. We look for the passing game to open up SF’s potent rushing attack making them very tough to defend here. The Niners are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at almost 29 PPG and we look for them to top 30 in this one. Detroit should have plenty of success offensively as well. Green Bay moved the ball very well in poor conditions last week punting only once the entire game. The Packers ran for 136 yards on 4.9 YPC which could be a problem here for the Niners again vs a very good Detroit running game (7th in the NFL). SF’s defensive weakness is stopping the run (26th EPA) and that should open up Detroit’s passing game as well. We have 2 top 5 DVOA offenses going at it here in what we expect will be a “keep up” game with both teams being successful on offense. Historically there have been 15 totals in AFC & NFC Championship games set at 49 or higher and the Over is 10-4-1 in those games. Add another Over to that number on Sunday.

ASA Top Play NFL 10* on #320 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs, 3 PM ET - So by now you’ve heard everything there is to hear on this game and a majority of it has been Kansas City/Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid as underdogs, or in playoff games etc…They were in a very favorable scheduling situation last week against the Bills who were on a very short week. KC played well averaging 7.7YPP compared to the Bills 4.7YPP. But the Bills dominated the time of possession which means the Chiefs defense played 78 snaps. In comparison, the Ravens defense was on the field for only 46 snaps and will be the fresher of the two units. Speaking of defense, last week the Ravens rushed for 5.5 yards per carry and 229 yards overall against a Texans defense that was top 5 in the league in EPA per rush allowed. Kansas City ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed in the regular season. The Ravens were arguably the best/2nd best team in the league the entire season and rate as one of the greatest all-time teams in terms of DVOA rankings. This comes after facing the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Kansas City certainly didn’t look like the dominating Chiefs of the past this season despite playing one of the weakest schedules (21st) in the league. The Ravens are now playing their 4th straight home game heading into the Conference Championship game and teams in that situation are 7-1 SU dating back to 2004. In that same 20-year span, teams playing in the Divisional round or later and playing on the road for the second consecutive week are 13-41 SU. We won’t be swayed by the Chiefs recent two game winning streak as they benefitted from favorable weather and or scheduling in both games. Now the Ravens are the fresher team, at home and only laying 1.5-more points than the Bills were last week. The Ravens had the best overall Margin of Victory this season at +12.6PPG overall and +15.1PPG at home. Yes, betting against Mahome/Reid is a scary proposition but this Ravens team is better overall on both sides of the ball and over 60-minutes it will play out favorably for the home team.

#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 or 45.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The anticipated weather forecast has pushed this total lower than it should be in our opinion and we like the value on the Over in this one. The forecast now calls for the snow to stop on Saturday night with no precipitation on Sunday. That should allow plenty of time to get the field in good shape. The temps will be in the mid 20’s with 10MPH winds which isn’t bad at all. Both of these teams are used to playing in poor weather. In fact, both played in much worse conditions last week and KC put up 26 points and Buffalo scored 31 points. These 2 met in early December and the final score was Buffalo 20, KC 17 staying under the posted total which was 49. In that game both teams left points off the scoreboard with 2 turnovers in opposing teams territory and a TD called back late by KC because of a penalty. This total has been adjusted too low. Mahomes & Allen have faced off 6 times and the total in 5 of those games was set in the 50’s and the other meeting was 49. Now we’re talking mid 40’s for this total. In their 6 meetings prior to this one, these 2 have averaged 53.6 total points and that includes the 37 point output last month. They’ve met twice in the playoffs in do or die situations and put up 78 and 62 points in those 2 games. We have 2 top 10 offenses facing off (both total offense & YPP) with 2 high level QB’s that are both capable of putting up big numbers. With the weather looking OK as we get closer to game time, we like the Over in this game.

#303/304 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - This is going to be a “keep up” game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and press the other offense to keep up on the scoreboard. GB’s offense is clicking to say the least as they’ve put up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games while averaging 28 PPG over their last 9 contests. That includes putting up over 31 PPG during that stretch vs the 3 defensive teams they faced that ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. That includes last week rolling up 48 points vs a Dallas defense that had allowed 30 points only twice in their previous 12 games. SF’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL putting up 6.6 YPP and they scored at least 30 points in 9 games this year and we’re confident they’ll reach at least that vs this Green Bay defense that gave up over 500 total yards last week vs the Cowboys. The Packer defense ranked outside the top 20 in both YPP and YPG allowed yet played only 4 games the entire season vs teams ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. They allowed 27 PPG in those 4 games and SF is the best of the bunch so we’re confident the Niners get to at least 30 points here. GB has gone Over the total in 7 of their last 8 games and SF has gone Over the total in 5 of their 8 home games this season. The weather will be the one potential deterrent here as it’s been raining in the Bay Area for much of the week and may still be by gametime. The wind, however, doesn’t look bad on Saturday evening in the 10 MPH range. With the spread near -10 in this game the final score is projected to be around 30-20. We have both teams topping those projected numbers and we grab the Over.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs Houston Texans – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET - The Baltimore Ravens have HISTORIC numbers when it comes to DVOA rankings and are one the best all-time in that statistical category. They hold the #1 overall DVOA, 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The impressive aspect of that is they played the toughest strength of schedule this season in the NFL. The Ravens have an overall average +/- of +11.9PPG (best in the NFL) and a net differential of +14.1PPG at home (4th). Houston on the other hand is 12th in DVOA rankings, 14th offensively and 16th defensively. The Texans were much better at home (7-3 SU) than on the road (4-4 SU). They had a +/- at home of +6.9PPG but were negative -1.8PPG on the road. Baltimore averaged the 3rd most yards per play offensively at home at 6.4, while the Texans on the road averaged 5.0YPP. Going back to the season strength of schedule we find the Texans faced the 18th toughest schedule which includes 13 defense that rank in the bottom half of the league in DVOA. The Ravens have a net play differential of +1.3 yards per play compared to the Texans +0.3YPP against weak competition. Texans QB Stroud is going to be a very good NFL QB, but this is too much to ask of a rookie QB and coach. Lay it.

#152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Eagles have been trending the wrong way for months now and laying a full FG on the road right now with this team is too much so we’re siding with Tampa Bay. Philly has failed to cover their last 6 games and on the season and they lost 5 of those 6 games outright. Their only win since the beginning of December was an 8 point home win over the NY Giants. Philadelphia was outgained in 8 of their last 10 games and their defense fell apart allowing 31 PPG over their last 7. Despite their 11-6 overall record, the Eagles point differential is only +5 which is more in line with a .500 type team. Lastly they are really banged up right now on offense with QB Hurts dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand and both starting WR’s Brown and Smith not at 100%. TB trending positive winning 5 of final 6 games with only loss vs Saints in a game they outgained New Orleans 7 YPP to 4.4 YPP but had 4 turnovers. The Bucs were undervalued most of the season ending with an 11-6 ATS record (2nd best in the NFL) and now they are a home dog to a team that was barely hanging on over the last month of the season. Some infighting in the Philly locker room as well doesn’t help. We give the Bucs a solid shot at the outright win and getting a full FG is a bonus.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 50.5 Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET - Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 29.9PPG and has averaged 37.4PPG at home. The Cowboys have put up over 40+ points in four home games this season. The Cowboys have sixteen 40+ point games under head coach Mike McCarthy since 2020. Dallas should put up points against this Packer defense that is 27th in DVOA and give up 5.6YPP (20th). The Packers allow 128.3 yards per game (28th) and give up the 18th most passing yards per completion. Dallas and Dak Prescott have the best completion percentage in the NFL and average 258 passing yards per game which is 3rd most in the league. This Packer D looked much better in their last two games but that was against a Vikings team playing a rookie QB in his first start and a Bears team that wasn’t interested last week in the season finale. Prior to their last two games the Packers had given up 30 points to the Panthers, 34 to the Buccaneers and 24 to the Giants and NONE of those teams have an offense that compares to Dallas. In fact, the Packers Experted Plays Against defense in their last five games is one of the worst in the NFL and it came against a host of dead-beat quarterbacks. The Boys put up a poor showing in their last home game against the Lions and we expect an explosion this week against Green Bay. The Packers will score in this game too. The offense is as healthy as it’s been all season with a solid O-line that can slow the Cowboys pass rush and open holes for RB Jones. Packers QB Love has been outstanding this season and this team has no pressure whatsoever and can play loose. GBay has scored 20+ in 7 of their last eight games, 27 or more in four of those games. In the Packers two biggest games in recent weeks they put up 29 in Detroit and 27 against the Chiefs, two solid defenses comparable to the Cowboys.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44.5 Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8 PM ET - The weather expected in Kansas City on Saturday night is going to be brutal. The forecast is calling for 0 degrees with a windchill of -18 below. Winds are expected to be 15mph and it’s going to be extremely hard for either team to throw the football. Not to mention these teams have not been great offensively at the end of the season. Kansas City has gone from averaging 29.2PPG a year ago to 21.8PPG this season which is essentially ‘average’ in the NFL. Last season the Chiefs averaged 1-point for every 13.9 yards gained which was 4th highest. This year it takes them on average 16.1 yards gained to score a point which ranks 21st in the league. KC is 9th in yards gained pe game and in Yards Per Play. They have scored 21 or less points in 8 of their last twelve games. What the Chiefs have done well this season is play defense. KC is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per game (289YPG), the 5th fewest yards per play (5.0) and 2nd fewest points per game at 17.3. Against a Dolphins team that wants to pass you better be able to defend the pass and the Chiefs do that well too. KC is 4th in passing yards per game allowed and 8th in completion percentage against. Kansas City also averages 3.4 sacks per game which is 2nd in the league. Teams have figured out how to scheme against the Dolphins offense as the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills have held them to 22, 19 and 14-points in their past three games. Miami averages 13.8 yards per point for the season but against those three previous opponents that number dips to 18.6YPPT, 5th worst in the NFL. The Dolphins average the most yards per game at 401YPG on the season but in their last three games they have put up just 341.7YPG. Miami’s defense is 10th in yards per game allowed, 12th in yards per play allowed and 6th against the run. In 8 of their last 10 games the Fish have allowed 21 or less points. These two teams met in Germany earlier this season with the Chiefs winning 21-14, producing 35-points. Miami managed 292 total yards, Kansas City had 267 yards. Miami averaged 5.0YPP, KC managed 4.8YPP. As long as this number is above 44 we will be Under.

ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Miami Dolphins, 8:15 PM ET - The Chiefs were favored by -2.5 points earlier this season when these two teams met in Germany so the adjustment to -4.5 in KC doesn’t seem like enough in our opinion. You’ve probably heard many experts talk about the Dolphins playing in cold weather and their poor record in adverse conditions. That certainly has some merit but isn’t the sole focus of our handicap. Miami has several key injuries, especially to a defense that has been exploited in recent weeks. They are thin on the D-line and at the linebacker position and it couldn’t come at a worse time. In the past two weeks this defense allowed 56-points to the Ravens and nearly 500 total yards of offense. Last week they gave up just 21-points to the Bills but that should have been much worse as Bills QB Allen threw two INT’s in the red zone. Buffalo averaged 6.1YPP and racked up 473 yards on the day. The other factor to consider here is the fact the Dolphins defense was on the field for 77 plays last week, so fatigue becomes an issue. Granted, this is not the same Chiefs team that we have witnessed in the past as the offense has seen a massive regression this season. But the defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking 7th in DVOA, 2nd in yards per game allowed 5th in yards per play and 2nd in points allowed per game. Kansas City is 37-13 SU at home since 2019 and Patrick Mahomes has been in this situation more times than we can count. The same can’t be said for Tua Tagovailoa who is making his first career playoff start. QB’s in this situation have covered just 32% of the time in the last 20+ seasons. Tua is also 0-4 when playing in below 40-degree temperatures and Saturday’s forecast is calling for a negative windchill. Miami as a team has dropped 10-straight games in temperatures below 40 degrees. We have not been sold on KC all season long but the situation warrants a bet on them at home here as a small favorite.

#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +4.5 over Michigan, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Washington is a perfect 3-0 SU as an underdog this year with outright wins over Texas, Oregon, and Oregon State in that role. Dating back to the beginning of last year, the Huskies are 5-0 SU as an underdog. We think they have a great shot to upset Michigan on Monday and if they do lose, we expect it to be close and were getting +4.5 as a buffer. Nobody has been able to stop Washington’s passing game this season (#1 in the nation averaging 358 YPG through the air) and we don’t think Michigan will be any different. While the Wolverines defense has fantastic numbers, the fact is they’ve played a number of very weak offenses this year with 8 of the 13 offenses they faced during the regular season ranked outside the top 100. They’ve only faced 2 passing offenses ranked inside the top 50, Maryland (21st) and Ohio State (22nd), and both of those teams gave the Michigan defense problems throwing for 247 and 271 yards respectively in 2 close games (both decided by a TD or less). Now they face the best passing offense in the nation and the key for Washington will be keeping QB Penix upright which we think they’ll do. The Huskies offensive line has allowed a grand total of 11 sacks the entire season (4th best in the nation) and didn’t allow a single sack vs a very good Texas defensive front last week. Michigan was able to generate massive pressure on Bama QB Milroe last week, however the Crimson Tide offensive line was a liability all season long ranking 125th in sacks per game allowed so that wasn’t surprising. Even with that pressure, Alabama was still able to push Michigan to OT before losing in semi finals. Washington doesn’t have great defensive numbers but their strength is vs the run (41st nationally) so they match up well with the Wolverines offense. Bottom line is, we think Washington has a great shot to win this game and if they lose we’re getting above key numbers 3 & 4 so also a decent chance to win in that situation as well. Take the points.

#460 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Giants +5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These same two teams recently played in Philly with the Eagles a 14-point home chalk. Philadelphia won that game 33-25 and a +173 yardage advantage. New York had started QB Tommy DeVito in that game before Tyrod Taylor relieved him. Last week Taylor played well against the Rams with 319 passing yards on 27/41 passing. He also adds a rushing element with 40-yards on the ground against Los Angeles. The story here though is the in-season demise of the Eagles. Through the first two months of the season the Eagles had a net differential of +6.5PPG. Now for the season they are +1.4PPG which ranks 12th in the NFL. 8 of the Eagles 11 wins this season have been by one possession. 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 7 or less. There is turmoil in the Philadelphia locker room and some grumbling among the players/coaches. The defense took a turn for the worse when Matt Patricia took over the play calling. Philly has given up 20+ points in 6 straight games and have allowed an average of 31.5PPG over that same span of games. New York lost their first two home games of the season badly to Dallas and Seattle. Since then they have gone 3-2 SU at home and the two losses were by a combined 4-points. With the Eagles likely to rest starters in bad weather we like the G-Men to keep it close or win outright.

#466 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +3 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has shown no quit on the season traveling across the country to Philadelphia last week and beating the Eagles who were trying to hold onto their NFC East lead. The Cards were down 21-6 at half and could have folded in a meaningless game on the road but battled back for a 35-31 win behind 220 yards on the ground. It wasn’t a fluke as Arizona was +15 first downs and outgained the Eagles 449 to 275. The only other team to beat the Eagles at home this year was San Francisco. It’s no coincidence that Arizona QB Murray has played outstanding after head coach Gannon gave him vote of confidence saying he was absolutely their QB of the future. Murray has completed just under 70% of his passes for almost 700 yards and 6 TD’s his last 3 games. The Cards rushing attack has topped 150 yards in 3 of their last 4 games including topping 220 yards vs 2 playoff teams, the Eagles & Niners. That’s bad news for a Seattle defense that ranks 30th vs the run (26th EPA vs the run) and in the last 6 games this defense has allowed 169, 136, 173, 178, 162, and 202 yards on the ground. They look like they’re wearing down on that side of the ball which will be a problem vs this Arizona offense. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 wins during that stretch both coming by only 3 points. Seattle needs to win this game to have any shot at the playoffs so all the pressure is on the road team. The Cards can play loose and carefree as they did last week @ Philly and we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points.

#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Chicago is playing by far their best football of the season winning 5 of their last 7 games with an ATS record of 6-1-1 their last 8. While they can’t make the playoffs, they’d like nothing more than to end their 9 game losing streak vs Green Bay and knock them out of the playoffs. This young Green Bay team has all the pressure here as a win puts them in the post season while a loss limits their chances significantly. Unlike Chicago, the Packers were trending down heading into last weekend’s win over Minnesota who was playing with their 4th string QB Hall. That one data point is not changing our opinion. Leading into that game the Packers had lost to the NYG with DeVito playing QB, were smoked at home by an average Tampa Bay team, and needed a last second FG to beat a 2-14 Carolina team. This is a bad match up for Green Bay’s defense. They rank 28th vs the run and they are facing a Chicago offense that has a mobile QB and the 2nd best running attack in the NFL. Bear’s QB Fields is playing at a high level over his last nine starts with a QB Rating of 87.5 to go along with 1,838 yards passing, 13 TDs, and 521 yards rushing. The defense has been top level allowing 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve risen to 12th in total defense after being near the bottom of the league a few months ago. Chicago’s only losses since early November were by 3 points @ Cleveland and a loss @ Detroit in a game they led by 12 points with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. They have no pressure here and will do everything they can to beat this must win Green Bay team. And we all know must win doesn’t mean will win. In fact, Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS). We give the Bears a great shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

#468 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -120 or +3 +100 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Pittsburgh has to win to have a shot at getting into the playoffs here while the Ravens are locked into the #1 seed. Of course we see this every year and teams that have to win, often don’t. Baltimore will be sitting QB Jackson and some other starters which is why they are a home dog in this one. If both teams were full strength here the Ravens would be favored by more than a TD so this line adjustment is more than 10 points which we think is too much. Value on Baltimore. You can bet Harbaugh and the Ravens are all in to win this game. That’s how they operate. Even in “meaningless” games such as the pre-season this team plays to win which is why they have won 24 of their last 25 pre-season games. The starting QB will be Huntley and he has plenty of starting experience subbing for Jackson when needed. Let’s not forget that the Steelers will be starting QB Rudolph for the 3rd time this season and he is technically their 3rd stringer. Despite their 9-7 record, the Steelers have been outgained and outscored on the season. They rank 24th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 26th in defensive YPP allowed. They are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and in last week’s 7 point win over Seattle, the Steelers were outgained by 1.0 YPP but ran 22 more offensive snaps. The Ravens are a money making 20-5 ATS their last 25 as a dog and when Mike Tomlin and Harbaugh meet, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). We were looking at the exact same situation back in 2019 when Baltimore was hosting Pittsburgh, had secured a playoff spot, was a home dog, they were resting starters including QB Jackson, and the Steelers needed to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Final score was Baltimore 28-10. The Ravens are a deep & talented team and they would like nothing better than to ruin rival Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Bad weather and a low scoring game expected making the + points all the more important. All the pressure is on the Steelers here and we like Baltimore to win this game.

#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game.

#275/276 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 36 Points – Iowa vs Tennessee, Monday at 1 PM ET - We don’t see either of these teams getting to 20 points as we anticipate a full blown defensive battle. We know how poor Iowa’s offense has performed this season. They rank dead last in the nation in total offense average 240 YPG and put up only 16 PPG. They scored more than 15 points only once in their last 7 games and were shutout in the Big 10 Championship game vs Michigan. The Vols have some opt outs on both sides of the ball, but their defense is deep and talented. They finished in the top 15 nationally allowing opponents only 3.2 YPC which means Iowa will probably have to try and find success through the air which we don’t anticipate happening. The Hawkeyes finished 130th in passing YPG (123 YPG) and QB Hill, who took over after starter McNamara was injured, completed less than 50% of his passes and had only 5 TD’s in his 9 starts. Iowa’s defense, on the other hand, is outstanding. They finished in the top 5 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense (13 PPG). Even vs a high powered Michigan offense in the Big 10 Title game they held the Wolverines to 13 first downs and 213 total yards. The Tennessee offense wasn’t nearly as potent as it was last season (41st in scoring after finishing #1 in the nation last year) and they will be without a number of key components including starting QB Milton. Starting at QB in this game will be true freshman Iamaleava who only attempted 26 passes this season all in mop up duty blowouts vs poor teams. We don’t see him having much success vs this Iowa defense meaning Tennessee will need a big day on the ground vs the Hawkeye defense that allowed 3.0 YPC (4th nationally). Defenses dominate this one and Under is the play.

#274 ASA PLAY ON 8* LSU -8.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 12 PM ET - LSU head coach Brian Kelly stated this week that the Tigers will have everyone available for this game that played in the season final vs A&M with the exception of QB Daniels. We’ll take him at his word, although you never know during bowl season, and if that’s the case we see this LSU team winning by double digits. Wisconsin has more opt outs / transfers in this game than LSU does. The Badgers have lost 2 of their top 4 WR’s, the top RB, starting center, along with key starter at each level of their defense. Wisconsin struggled to mesh all season in their new offense under OC Longo and with the key players missing, we just don’t think they have enough on that side of the ball to keep up in this one. They finished 77th in total offense and only averaged 22 PPG this season (103rd). Without a rushing attack on Monday (RB Allen out and next RB had 300 yards rushing) they’ll be one dimensional in this game which won’t get it done. LSU doesn’t have a problem on that side of the ball. They led the nation with 46 PPG and while QB Daniels is out, his back up Nussmeier is plenty experienced. In fact Nussmeier led the Tigers in passing yards in last year’s SEC Championship game and Bowl win over Purdue so they’re not stepping down to a freshman or anything like that here. Both top WR’s, each with over 1,000 yards receiving, are slated to play along with their offensive line being in tact. The Badger defense had solid numbers this season but played a massively weak schedule of offenses in the Big 10 West. Seven of Wisconsin’s opponents this year finished the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. LSU played the much tougher schedule this season and their numbers were significantly better than Wisconsin’s with a +2.5 YPP differential (Badgers were +0.2) and a +224 point differential (Badgers were +47). We understand there will be a drop off with Nussmeier but it won’t be as much as many anticipate. LSU by double digits.

#131/132 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 43 Points - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This number opened 43.5 and was quickly steamed up to 46 with the Pro’s hammering the Over. Then the Vikings announced that they would start rookie QB Hall instead of Nick Mullens and the line dipped below 44. With this below a key number of 44 we will bite with a bet on the Over with whomever is under center for Minnesota. Mullens wasn’t great in his two recent starts, both losses, as he threw 6 INT’s to 4 TD’s. This Sunday the Vikings face a Packers defense that is really struggling to stop anyone. In their three most recent games the Packers allowed Tommy DeVito to look like Phil Simms and the 80’s Giants. They then faced the Bucs w/Baker Mayfield who had a perfect passer rating and one of his career best games in Lambeau. Last week they made the Panthers pathetic offense and QB Young look like a top 10 unit with nearly 400-total yards of offense. Green Bay gives up 22.1PPG on the season but in their last three games they have given up an average of 29.3PPG, 4th most in the NFL. Minnesota is 7th in yards per play and 10th in total yards per game and they won’t change their game plan here. Green Bay’s offense has played well in their last six games, scoring 20+ in all six while averaging 26PPG. The Packers are 13th in yards per play offensively and QB Love should have a field day against a Vikings pass defense that is 32nd in completion percentage defense and 17th in passing yards allowed per game. In the second meeting of the same season between these two NFC North rivals the Over has cashed three straight times with total points scored of 58, 47 and 50-total points. This game has OVER written all over it.

#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears -2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta can’t be trusted on the road where they have a 2-5 SU record and average only 13.6 PPG. Included in those 5 road losses were setbacks @ Carolina, @ Tennessee, and @ Arizona who have a combined record of 10-35. Their only road wins were by 3 points @ Tampa and by 5 points @ NY Jets and the Birds were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP in that win. In their road games Atlanta averages just 266 YPG (125 fewer than they average at home) and they average 10 fewer PPG away from home. Since Chicago QB Fields returned from injury in November, the Bears are 3-2 SU with their only losses coming @ Detroit and @ Cleveland, both games down to the wire. In fact, in their loss @ Detroit, the Bears led by 12 points with under 4:00 remaining in the game. The Chicago defense has been very good as of late allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that topped 20 points during that stretch were the Lions (@ Detroit) and even in that game Detroit had 14 points with under 4:00 minutes remaining. This defense has improved from near the bottom of the NFL at the end of September to their current ranking of 12th in total defense. Over the last 6 weeks, Chicago’s defense ranks 3rd in defense DVOA. The Falcons scored 29 points last week vs Indy and ran for 177 yards on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. That game was at home for the Falcons, where they are much better offensively, but not they face a Chicago defense that ranks #1 vs the rush (80 rush YPG allowed). That means they’ll most likely have to rely on back up QB Heinecke to have a huge game here. We don’t see that happening. We expect Atlanta to struggle big time offensively in this game. We’re getting a warm weather, indoor team playing in Soldier Field where the forecast calls for a cold & windy Sunday. We like the Bears here.

#112 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We have to wonder how focused the Titans will be after a pair of heart-breaking losses the past two weeks to Seattle and this same Houton team by 3-points each. Houston will get a huge boost with the return of QB CJ Stroud and have everything to play for. The Texans control their own destiny and can win the Division but need to win this game and then beat Indianapolis next week. Houston beat the Titans two weeks ago in Tennessee with backup QB Keenum. The Texans defense was outstanding, holding Tennessee to 204 total yards of offense and 3.6YPP. Houston is a drastically different team with Stroud and have been solid overall at home with a 5-3 SU record. The Texans lost at home in Week #2 then reeled off 4-straight wins at home by 24, 7, 2 and 5-points with Stroud under center. These two teams rate out relatively even in terms of DVOA defense, but the Texans are far superior offensively ranking 15th compared to the Titans at 26th. Tennessee has struggled on the road this season with a 1-6 SU record and a negative differential of minus -9.6PPG. As long as CJ Stroud plays we are on the Texans minus the points.

#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts -4 over Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Las Vegas is coming off a HUGE win over their biggest rivals the Kansas City Chiefs last week in Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce was in tears after the game and the team acted as if they had just won the Division. If we break this game down, we find the Raiders had just 205 total yards of offense and averaged 4.1YPP. They benefited from a fumble recovery for a TD and had a pick’6 for a touchdown. Not to mention, this Chiefs team is not the Chiefs team of years past so that win isn’t nearly as impressive as it looks like. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders QB O’Connell and his last two wins. If you take the games he’s played in and all the other QB’s in the league in that same time period, he rates 40 out of 40 in EPA+completion percentage statistics. We also get the Colts in a great spot here at home off an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last week. Indianapolis was held to less than 100 rushing yards by a solid Falcons rush defense that is 9th best in stopping the run. That won’t be the case this week as the Raiders are 21st in the league, allowing 4.3-Yards Per Rush and give up 122RYPG on the season. The Colts need to establish a running game to help relieve the pressure on QB Minshew and open up the play action pass. Indianapolis is 13th in rushing yards per game at 113.2 RYPG. The Colts have some deficiencies defensively, but the Raiders anemic offense won’t be able to take advantage of that edge. Las Vegas is 29th in total yards gained per game, 27th in yards per play gained, 31st in rushing and 23rd in passing. Las Vegas has struggled on the road this year with a 1-point win in their season opener in Denver and the win last week which wasn’t deserved last week. In between those two road wins they have losses by 28, 7, 18, 22 and 17-points. The Colts have won 5 of their last seven games and will get a double-digit win in this one.

#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas -5 or -5.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for Dallas in this one. Detroit clinched their first division title in 30 years last week beating Minnesota so they are in. After emotional road win last week, the Lions back on road for the 4th in 5 weeks. This is a huge game for Dallas as they sit 1 game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. A must win here would give them a shot at the division crown and a possible #2 seed while a loss would most likely send the Cowboys to the #5 seed and a road game to open the playoffs. Dallas is off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the AFC @ Buffalo and @ Miami. Last week they led Miami late before Fins made FG as time expired to win 22-20. The Boys are back home where they are 7-0 and have outscored their opponents by 171 points (+24 PPG). They’ve now won 16 straight home games and their spread mark in those games is 13-3. They are also very tough off a loss with an 8-1 ATS record. Dallas averages 40 PPG at home and they should have a field day vs a Detroit defense that has been trending down for a few months allowing an average of 27 PPG over their last 9. The Lions stats away from home drop off drastically while the Dallas home numbers are great. Dallas at home vs Detroit on the road…Dallas +24 PPG at home – Detroit -1 PPG on road, Dallas +143 YPG at home – Detroit +26 YPG on road, Dallas +1.1 YPP at home – Detroit -0.3 YPP on road. We like the Cowboys to win by at least a TD here.

#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys have big time motivation here to win one for the gipper so to speak. Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl (10 years at Wyoming), has made it known he will retire after this game and he is very well liked by his players so look for a supreme effort from the Cowboys. It looks like they will have nearly everyone available here as well with the exception of 1 starting offensive lineman and 1 defensive back. Toledo, on the other hand, has lost some key parts, especially on offense, where starting QB Finn (2,600 yards passing & 560 yards rushing) has already transferred to Baylor and starting RB Boone (1400 yards rushing) is in the portal as well. Not to mention Toledo head coach Candle was rumored as a potential HC at a number of other programs and seems to be every season which has been a distraction. Speaking of Candle, he’s been a terrible bowl coach which might have something to do with his name coming up each year for openings at this time of year. Candle is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowl games and Toledo was favored in 4 of those games. On top of that, the MAC was a terrible conference this season which led to Toledo having a strength of schedule ranking of 130th. The MAC bowl game blunders are also well documented as the conference has a SU bowl record of 14-55 their last 69 post season games. Rockets back up QB Gleason has some experience but this team relies heavily on the run (11th in rushing YPG) and he is not even in the same stratosphere at Finn when it comes to running the ball. This team has basically lost 2,000 yards on the ground to the transfer portal which will be nearly impossible to overcome here. The Rockets overall defensive stats look impressive but they didn’t face a single team in MAC play that was ranked higher than 79th in total offense and 7 of their conference opponents ranked 100th or lower in total offense. Wyoming played the much tougher schedule and beat solid bowl non-conference teams Texas Tech and Appalachian State. Veteran Wyoming QB Peasley (2 year starter) had a solid season with 20 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and led the Cowboys to 84 points over their final 2 games. Wyoming is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 bowl games and we like them to win and cover this one.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis.

ASA top play on 10* CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 vs. NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - The oddsmakers are trying to scare you off this bet with a line of minus -7.5 but in reality, the number is too low in our estimation. Consider this, the Jets were recently plus +7 points in Miami with starting QB Wilson. Back in late November they were plus +8.5 at Buffalo, again with Wilson. Cleveland is better defensively than both those teams by a wide margin, especially when playing at home. With the resurgence of QB Flacco they aren’t too far behind those teams offensively. Cleveland gives up just 13.1PPG when playing at home, allows 3.7 yards per play, 87.4 rushing YPG and 110.5 passing yards per game. The Jets offense has been atrocious on the road with averages of 12PPG, 4.7YPP and 249 total YPG. Don’t be fooled by the Jets 30-points in a thrilling late game win over the Redskins, whose defense has been shredded of late allowing 34.3PPG in their last three games. Prior to that game the Jets managed 0 points on the road against a Dolphins defense that isn’t anywhere near as good as the Browns. New York has scored 10, 13, 12, 6 and 0 in five of their six road games this season. The Browns offense has put up 31, 20 and 36 points in three straight wins and have averaged 372YPG over that stretch of games which is 4th most in the NFL. Cleveland is winning at home by an average of +7.4PPG while the Jets have the 3rd worst net differential on the road of minus -11.2PPG.

#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +2.5 over Kansas State, Thursday at 5:45 PM ET - We really like the way this NC State team played down the stretch. We could argue by the end of the season this was the 2nd best team in the ACC behind FSU. The Wolfpack won 6 of their last 7 games including beating bowl teams UNC (by 19), Clemson (by 7), Miami (by 14), and Virginia Tech (by 7). The Pack also covered 6 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Their only 3 losses came at the hands of Notre Dame, Louisville, and Duke which was their only real clunker this season. Veteran QB Armstrong, transfer from UVA, lost his job midway through the season but gained it back and was terrific down the stretch completing 70% of his passes for 6 TDs (0 interceptions) over the last 3 games also adding over 200 yards rushing in those 3 games. NCSU has some opt outs in the transfer portal but the vast majority are not depth chart guys. Most of their starters are playing in this one. The same can’t be said for KSU. The Cats had a solid 8-4 season but they are missing a large amount of key guys for this one. That includes QB Will Howard (2,600 yards passing / 350 yards rushing), 2nd leading rusher Ward, and KSU’s top 2 pass catchers WR Brooks and TE Sinnott. Those 4 players alone have accounted for nearly 5,000 yards this season (passing, receiving, and rushing). On top of that, offensive coordinator Klein has also left the program to become the OC at Texas A&M. We’ll take the team that sits nearly full strength entering this game as a dog. NC state it is.

#251 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -2 over Miami FL, Thursday at 2:15 PM ET - Miami is a program that has struggled in bowl games for a few decades. They are just 2-11 both SU & ATS in bowls since 2005. The Canes seem to always have higher aspirations entering the season and when they are stuck in a lower tier bowl, they simply don’t show up. We have a strong feeling that will be the case again this year. Are the Canes happy about traveling north to colder weather and facing Rutgers in Yankee Stadium. We doubt it. They are down to their 3rd string QB Brown after starter Van Dyke transferred to Wisconsin after the season ended and back up Williams is injured. Brown picked up some minimal experience last season but did not take a single snap in a game this year. As a whole it looks like 9 or 10 Miami starters will sit this one out. Huge coaching advantage here with Rutgers Greg Schiano (5-2 in bowl games) taking on Mario Cristobal who used to be on his staff the first time around at Rutgers. While Cristobal You can guarantee the Scarlet Knights are happy to be here. This is nearly a home game for the Scarlet Knights just 50 miles away from Yankee Stadium. They were not in a bowl game last season and haven’t won in the post season since 2014 so Rutgers really wants this one. Unlike Miami, the Knights have very few opt outs including on their defense with a number of key players deciding to come back next season. A defense that ranked in the top 20 nationally and they will be facing an inexperienced QB as we mentioned. They also got word that top RB Monangia (1,100 yards rushing) will return next season giving this program lots of momentum heading into the bowl game. With potential rain and wind chills in the 40’s on Thursday afternoon, we could see Miami being a bit disinterested in this one. Rutgers is the play.