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#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - At first glance, this looks like a square bet but there are several factors that have us on this Over. The Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the NFL running a play every 26.7 seconds. Running more plays makes up for the Cowboys lack of explosiveness with an offense that average just 5.0 yards per play on the season. In their three most recent games the Dallas offense has been better at 5.3YPP while averaging 1-point scored for every 15.4 yards gained. After a slow start at QB, Cooper Rush has guided the Cowboys offense to 34, 27, 20 and 30-points in their last four games. Dallas should get plenty of opportunities offensively against this Bucs defense that is 27th in total yards per game allowed, 21st in YPP allowed at 5.8, 22nd in stopping the run and 30th against the pass. Tampa Bay’s offense with Baker Mayfield under center has been one of the best in the NFL this season. The Bucs have scored 20+ points in every game but one this season and average 28.8ppg which is 4th most in the league. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total YPG, 3rd in YPP, 4th in rushing and 4th in passing yards per game. The Dallas defense has regressed this season ranking 26th in total YPG allowed, 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1, 29th against the run and 21st against the pass. This game shapes up to be a shootout.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 45.5 Points - Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Second season meetings within the division have trended towards the Under in recent years and this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair. When these teams met earlier this season in Philly they combined for 44 total points and stayed below the set number of 49. The Commanders managed just 264 total yards 4.3 yards per play. Philadelphia ran it for 228 yards and passed for another 206 at 6.3YPP. Washington is averaging 5.8YPP for the season but have dropped to 5.5YPP in their last three games. The Commanders have faced just two top 10 defenses this season out of their 14 games. In those two games against Pittsburgh and Philly they averaged less than 4.4YPP overall. Philadelphia is very content to play ball-control offense and grind out wins, just as they did last week against the Steelers. Philly has stayed Under in 5 of their last six games as a result. The Eagles average 5.7YPP on the season but that number dips to 5.1 in their last three games. Philadelphia’s defense gets our 3rd overall grading and is the best defense in terms of yards per play allowed at 4.7. The Eagles allow the fewest points in the NFL this season at 17.6. with both teams rating in the bottom half of the league in pace of play we expect a low scoring game here.

#211/212 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Indiana vs Notre Dame, Friday at 8 PM ET - Both defensive units are the best teams on the field in this game. Both are top 10 defense in YPG & YPP & Scoring D. Not only that, the defensive strengths match up very well vs each offense. The Irish want to run the ball and IU has the #1 rush defense in the country allowing just 71 YPG on the season. The Hoosiers offense ranks much higher in passing YPG compared to rushing YPG and the Notre Dame defense ranks #3 in the nation allowing just 157 YPG through the air. The Indiana offense has great scoring numbers putting up 43 PPG, however the 2 best defenses they’ve faced shut them down. Versus Ohio State, the Hoosiers had 15 points on 153 total yards, and versus Michigan they had 20 points on 264 total yards. On the other side, the Notre Dame offense faced very few high level defensive teams. They faced off vs 3 teams that ended the season in the top 30 in total defense. Army, who faced an incredibly weak schedule so their numbers on offense and defense were misleading, Miami OH, wo played in the MAC so same story, and Northern Illinois, who played in the MAC as well. Indiana, who ranks #2 in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed, will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season. Both teams are very slow paced with the Irish ranking 108th in seconds per play and Indiana ranking 104th. The weather doesn’t look great in South Bend in Friday night (windchills in the teens and 10+ MPH winds) and we think both teams struggle offensively. Under is the call.

#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time. They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9. During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue. Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina. Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season. Not one. In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock. They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second. Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives. We like this one to stay Under the total.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Carolina vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4 PM ET - TB ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 28 PPG on the season. Carolina’s overall offensive numbers are shaky, which is why this total is set lower than in should be in our opinion, but the Panthers have played much better on that side of the ball as of late. They have scored 23, 20, and 27 points over the last 3 weeks. Their most recent offensive output was 27 points vs a KC defense that ranks 8th in the NFL allowing only 19 PPG. Since Carolina gave QB Bryce Young his starting job back, he’s played well with his 2 highest QB rating games coming the last 2 weeks. His resurgence should continue vs a TB defense that ranks 29th in total defense. Carolina’s defense ranks one spot lower at 30th so no reason to believe the Bucs offense won’t have their way as well. Not only that, the Panthers defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 31 PPG on 2.75 points per possession which is also worst in the league. The Tampa defense has allowed at least 27 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the only team they really “shut down” offensively over that stretch was the NYG who were relegated to their 3rd string QB for the game. Six of Carolina’s last eight opponents have scored at least 28 points. The weather looks great in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the 50’s and light winds. These 2 have combined to play 22 games this season and 15 have gone Over the total. Both teams have offensive success on Sunday and this goes Over the posted total.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Nebraska vs Iowa, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The weather will be cold in Iowa City on Friday night (temps in the low 20’s at kickoff) but very light winds so the offenses should be able to use their full arsenal both on the ground and through the air. Iowa was historically an Under team, however this year that has changed dramatically. The Hawkeyes 9-2 to the Over this season and they are averaging 29 PPG which is up from 15 PPG last season. At home they’ve put up at least 40 points (by themselves) 4 times including 3 Big 10 games. They are facing a Nebraska defense that hasn’t been great down the stretch. Last week they allowed 25 points to Wisconsin but it could have been worse as the Badgers averaged 7.4 YPP in that game. The Huskers have allowed at least 6.0 YPP in 4 straight games and over their last 5 games they’ve allowed an average of 31 PPG. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers played outstanding last week with 44 points on almost 500 yards vs a Wisconsin defense that allowed 16 points to Oregon a week earlier. New OC Dana Holgersen took over just a few weeks ago and their offense is taking shape nicely as he and the players get accustomed to what needs to be done. QB Railoa has really started to play well under Holgorsen completing over 70% of his passes in each of the last 2 games for nearly 500 yards through the air. A huge weight was lifted off Nebraska’s shoulders last week as their win over Wisconsin got them to bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. They can play loose here and be aggressive on offense. These to Big 10 rivals have gotten to at least 41 points in 10 of their last 11 meetings with the only exception being last year when Iowa had the worst offense in the nation (both total offense and scoring) and the total was set at 25 points. We look for both teams to get to at least 20 here which puts it Over the total.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points – New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Don’t pay much attention to Miami’s season long offensive numbers which aren’t great. They played a number of games without QB Tagovailoa and went on a stretch of 5 straight games scoring 15 points or less prior to his return. Since Tua has re-entered the line up, the Fins have scored 27, 27, 23 and 34 points. Since he returned, Miami ranks 4th in the NFL in offensive success rate over the last 4 games. They have averaged 3.17 points per possession during that stretch which is 2nd in the NFL behind only Detroit over the last 4 weeks. They should have plenty of success vs a New England defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, YPP allowed, rush & pass defense. The Pats have allowed less than 20 points only twice in their last 9 games and that was vs Chicago, who ranks dead last in YPP on offense, and vs this Miami team the first time around who was starting Tyler Huntley at QB who just joined the team. Even in that 15-10 Miami win with Huntley still learning the offense, the Fins put up 372 yards. New England’s offense has been much better with Drake Maye at QB instead of Brissett. In Maye’s 5 starts, the Pats have averaged above their season average in YPP in 4 of those games. The average total points in games where Brissett was the start is 35 and total points in games where Maye starts is 44. The weather looks perfect in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation. With Miami sitting as a 7 point favorite the implied score of this game is right around 26.5 to 19.5. We like New England to get to at least 20 and Miami may just get into the 30’s here. Over is the call.

#181/182 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER 44.5 Points - Air Force at Nevada, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This O/U number reflects the Air Force team we saw early in the season that struggled to move the football offensively and put points on the board. AF scored 7 or less points in 3 of their first five games and couldn’t get their vaunted running game going. They’ve made a QB change and the offense has taken off the last two weeks against Fresno State and Oregon State. Against Fresno, who ranks 14th in YPP defense, they ran it for 344 total yards at 4.3 yards per carry and put up 38-points. Last week against OSU they amassed 409 total yards and 28-points. This Air Force offense will face limited resistance from a Wolfpack D that is 96th in rushing yards allowed per game and 102nd in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. Nevada should put up points in this game too and they rank 45th in rushing yards per game at 178.5 and yards per rush at 4.8 per carry. Air Force is 89th in rushing yards allowed per game and 101st in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. The Wolfpack have put up 21-points in recent conference games against Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State who all rank significantly higher than Air Force defensively. These two teams did not meet last season but the two prior they scored 68 and 80-points. This game won’t get to those numbers but it will get over 45-total points.

#363/364 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Over 57.5 Points - Kansas vs BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We were on Kansas last week and mentioned they are playing very well right now especially on offense. They proceeded to put up 45 points on 532 yards vs a solid ISU defense. They’ve really kicked it in gear on that side of the ball averaging 36 PPG over their last 4 games. Their lowest point total during that stretch was 27 vs KSU but had over 400 yards of offense so that point total should have been higher. In their last 4 games KU has averaged 452 YPG on 7.2 YPP. Impressive to say the least. The problem with the Jayhawks is their defense. Last week they led big vs ISU (38-13 in the 3rd quarter) but the KU defense let the Cyclones score 3 TD’s in the final 20:00 minutes of game time. ISU averaged over 7.0 YPP in the game. KU’s defense has allowed at least 29 points in 5 of their last 6 games with the only exception being Houston who ranks 127th in total offense. BYU’s offense wasn’t great last week vs a solid Utah defense (22 points) but prior to that they had scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games. In last week’s game they were playing a Utah offense that can’t score and was down to their 3rd string QB so BYU wasn’t pushed to score a bunch of points (BYU won 22-21). The Cougars average 34 PPG on the season ranking them in the top 30 nationally. These teams have combined to go 12-6 to the Over this year with BYU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 5 and KU games reaching at least 60 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last year they met in Kansas and put up 65 total points with the total set at 56.5. Weather looks perfect in Provo on Saturday night with temps in the mid 30’s but almost no wind. This one is a shootout and we like the Over.

#281/282 ASA PLAY ON OVER 46 Points - New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Jets have two trends with their team right now with the offense improving and the defense sliding in the opposite direction. NY is averaging 5.1 Yards Per Play on the season and 5.7YPP in their most recent three games. Defensively they allow 4.6YPP overall, 4.8YPP in their last three games. New York allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their first four games but have allowed 23 or more in 4 of their last five games. In a recent game against the Steelers, who have similar offensive numbers compared to this Cardinals team the Jet’s D allowed 37 points and over 400-yards of offense. Offensively the Jets have explosive weapons at every position, and they played one of their best games last game versus a Texans defense that is significantly better than this Arizona unit. The Cardinals are allowing the 11th most Yards Per Play at 5.6, they rank 22nd in rushing YPG allowed and 24th in passing YPG given up. Arizona’s defense has held three pedestrian offenses (Bears, Chargers and Rams-injured) to 9, 15 and 10-points. Against the good offenses they’ve faced they have given up 34, 20, 42, 23, 34 and 27-points. The Cardinals are going to put up points in this game too. Arizona is 9th in Yards Per Play at 6.1 and has a potent rushing attack that is top 10 in the league. Arizona has scored 24+ points in 3 of their last five games with 28 and 29 in their last two.

#465/466 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 46.5 Points - Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings at 8:20 PM ET - Indy’s offense gets a shot in the arm here with Joe Flacco starting at QB.  There has been a big difference in this offense when Flacco starts and plays the majority of the game the Colts are averaging 27 PPG.  That includes games vs Tennessee and Pittsburgh, 2 top 10 defenses.  When Richardson starts and plays the majority of the game for Indianapolis they are averaging just 19 PPG.  Flacco completes 66% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 1 interception.  Richardson has completed 44% of his passes with 4 TD’s and 7 interceptions.  Huge upgrade in the passing game Flacco under center to go along with an Indy running game that ranks 11th in the NFL.  They should have success vs a Minnesota defense that is trending down allowing at least 29 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Vikings offense is averaging 27 PPG on the season on 6.1 YPP (8th in the NFL).  They are facing an Indianapolis defense that ranks 28th in total D, can’t stop the run (30th in run defense) and is allowing opposing QB’s to complete just over 68% of their passes (27th in the league).  They have held a few recent opponents to a lower scoring output, however those offenses rank near the bottom of the NFL (Tennessee 28th in scoring & Miami 32nd in scoring).  Minnesota also gets a huge boost offensively in this game with one of the top TE’s in the NFL, TJ Hockenson, returning from an injury.  At home the Minnesota offense has been very good averaging 29 PPG this season on 6.4 YPP.  Since 2020, the Vikings have gone 17-5-1 to the Over as home favorites if the total is less than 51 points which is a key NFL number.  Another Over here.

#385/386 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points Wyoming vs New Mexico, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total due to recent results (last weekend) from these 2 teams. This total sits at 60 to 61 points as of this writing on Friday and our power ratings say this total should be 66. NM games are averaging 73.5 total points and that includes last week’s game where they lost to CSU 17-6. That game was very misleading as the Lobos put up over 450 yards on 6.0 YPP but had 4 turnovers. 3 of those turnovers were inside CSU territory taking away potential points for the Lobos. The 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards and both averaged 6.0 YPP which should result in a much higher scoring game. Prior to last week’s game New Mexico had scored at least 50 points in 3 straight games. They rank in the top 10 nationally in total offense and they play fast (14th nationally in offensive plays run per game). They should have big time success vs this Wyoming defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rush defense, AND pass defense. The Wyoming offense has poor overall numbers this season, but they are definitely trending up. After not topping 17 points in any of their first 4 games, the Cowboys have now reached at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week vs a Utah State defense that ranks almost identical to this New Mexico defense (those teams rank 132nd and 131st in total defense), Wyoming put up almost 500 yards on 6.4 YPP. They scored 25 points but it should have been more as they settled for 4 FG’s (6 total FG’s in the game between the 2 teams) and fumbled deep inside USU territory. The Cowboys were one of the slower paced teams in the country last year but under their new regime they are playing much faster this season. The weather looks perfect in Albuquerque on Saturday afternoon with temps on the 60’s and very little wind. These teams have combined to play 16 games this season and 11 of those have gone Over the total. Both defenses rank outside the top 100 in pretty much every key category as we mentioned. Last year these 2 combined to score 61 points, yet both defenses had much better numbers than this year’s stop units. The projected score on this game based on the point spread (NM -7 to -8 range) is New Mexico 34.5, Wyoming 26.5. We’re confident both top those projected totals in this game. Over is the play.

#139/140 ASA PLAY ON OVER 60.5 Points – Kent State vs Western Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both offenses should have lots of success here. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Kent State ranks dead last in total defense allowing well over 500 YPG and WMU is much better ranking 127th giving up over 450 YPG. Kent has played 6 games this season vs FBS opponents and they’ve allowed at least 37 points in 5 of those games. The only team that didn’t reach that mark was BG last week, who had 27 points but only punted 3 times in 12 offensive possessions (missed FG & shut out on downs a few times). If we subtract their game vs FCS St Francis, the Golden Flashes have allowed 49.7 PPG (dead last in the NCAA). How are they going to slow down this WMU offense who is averaging 42 PPG in conference play (averaging 31.4 PPG overall)? Last week the Broncos put up 48 points and almost 500 yards on a Buffalo defense that was allowing 24.6 PPG entering the game. WMU’s defense, on the other hand, was terrible. The Bulls lit them up for 41 points and 550 total yards. That was a Buffalo offense that ranked 133rd nationally (out of 134 teams) entering the game averaging 244 YPG. Kent’s offensive numbers aren’t good overall this season, however those numbers are very misleading because they were shutout by Tennessee & Penn State, 2 of the top defenses in the nation. In MAC play, this Kent offense has looked solid averaging 25 PPG. They struggled last week vs Bowling Green, the top defense in the MAC and top 30 nationally, but prior to that they scored 30+ on Ball State and EMU. Weather looks good in Kalamazoo on Saturday with decent temps and light winds. These teams have met 5 times since 2012 and they’ve averaged more than 66 total points in those games. Take the Over.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Offense should rule the day (actually night) for this one. These are 2 of the 7 teams in the NFL that are averaging more than 6 YPP with Baltimore leading the league at 6.9. On the other side of the ball, these teams have long had reputations of solid defenses but that is not the case this season. They are both average at best this year with the Bucs ranking 26th in total defense (15th in YPP allowed) while the Ravens are 16th in total defense (23rd in YPP allowed). They each have been susceptible to big plays allowing 8 plays per game of more than 15 yards (tied for 31st out of 32 teams). That’s not a good recipe vs these offenses that have been very explosive. Baltimore is averaging 10 plays every game of more than 15 yards (1st in the NFL) and TB is averaging 8 plays of more than 15 yards (3rd). Both have been excellent on 3rd downs keeping drives alive with the Ravens converting on 3rd down 51% of the time (tops in the NFL) and TB converting 47% (4th). On the other side of the ball, the defenses rank 18th and 21st preventing 3rd down conversions. Baltimore has put up 30, 41, 35, and 28 points in their last 4 games. Tampa has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and in 4 of their 6 games this season. The average total points scored in Baltimore games this season is 54.3 (highest in the NFL) and Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 53.2 total points (3rd). The weather looks great in Tampa on Monday night with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We like both teams to get to at least 24 points and Over is the play.

#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 57 Points – Georgia vs Texas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We anticipate both teams getting to at least 30 points here so we’ll roll with the Over. Texas has now scored at least 30 points in 18 of their last 20 games while UGA has put up at least 30 on the scoreboard in 20 of their last 24 games. Both offenses are in the top 20 in YPP and they both love air it out with UGA ranking 9th nationally in YPG passing and Texas ranking 11th. The QB’s in this one are high level with UGA’s Beck and the Horn’s Ewers ranking as 2 of the top 5 signal callers in next year’s draft. Defensively Georgia has fallen off rather drastically from recent editions. The Dogs currently rank 39th in total defense and 67th in YPP allowed (FBS opponents only). They have already allowed 2 opponents to top 30 points this season including last weekend vs a Mississippi State offense that entered the game ranked 99th in scoring at just 20 PPG (they put up 31 on UGA). Prior to this season, the Bulldog defense had allowed only 2 opponents to top 30 points since the start of the 2021 season. Quite a drastic drop off this year. They allowed 41 @ Alabama this season and the Texas offense is better than the Tide so the Horns should have plenty of success here. The Longhorn defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense but they’ve played NOBODY with an offensive pulse this season. The best offense they’ve faced this far is UTSA (ranked 71st in total offense) and the average rating of the offenses they’ve faced is 100th (total offense). This spot is very similar to last weekend when Ohio State entered their game vs Oregon as the #1 ranked defense nationally but had played a very weak schedule of offenses as well (98th for an average). The Ducks put up 30+ points on that #1 defense last week. We see a similar outcome here. Weather looks perfect in Austin on Saturday night and this is a have to “keep up” offensively game in our opinion. High scoring.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet.

#365/366 ASA PLAY ON Over 56 Points – Arkansas vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Offenses should dominate in this one on a hot day in Auburn with very little wind expected.  Both these 2 SEC teams rank in the top 35 in YPP offense this season with each putting up at least 6.3 YPP.  They also both like to play fast with Arkansas running a play every 23 seconds (16th fastest) and Auburn running a play every 25 seconds (31st).  The Tigers had 1 stinker offensively this year vs a Cal defense that has allowed less than 10 PPG so far this season.  In their other 2 games Auburn has scored 73 & 45 points.  The Arkansas defense has looked susceptible giving up 66 points combined in their last 2 games vs Oklahoma State and UAB.  Auburn QB Brown made his first start last Saturday and looked solid throwing for 235 yards and 4 TD’s leading the Tigers to 500+ total yards and 45 points.  The Razorbacks offense has looked really good all season under the direction of new starting QB Green (transfer from Boise State).  They have scored 138 points in 3 games while averaging 587 total yards per game.  Both teams have solid QB’s and the weakness of each defense is stopping the pass (85th & 98th in pass defense) so we look for lots of success through the air.  When these 2 teams get together, the offenses have thrived putting up more than 56 total points (today’s posted total) in 9 of their last 10 meetings.  Let’s play Over in this one.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Under 41.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The QB positions on both sides are not ideal right now.  Pittsburgh planned to start Russell Wilson but he has a lingering calf issue.  If he plays he won’t be 100% and if he doesn’t it’s inaccurate Justin Fields who has a career completion percentage of barely 60%.  Atlanta plans to start Kirk Cousins who is coming off an achilles injury and hasn’t played since last October.  We don’t expect Cousins to be successful through the air here with zero game time with his new WR’s.  On the other side of the ball, we project both Pittsburgh and Atlanta to be the strengths of each team.  Atlanta has added key pieces with safety Simmons and edge rusher Judon bolstering an already top 10 defense in YPG, YPP, and PPG.  The Birds also have a new HC Morris who is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL so we look for a very good stop unit in Atlanta this season.  Pittsburgh will struggle big time on offense in this game.  The Steelers played both Wilson & Fields quite a bit in the pre-season yet they only scored a total of 32 points in 3 games.  Atlanta averaged just 19 PPG last season (26th in the NFL) and will most likely rely heavily on the run in order to protect Cousins early in the season.  Pittsburgh averaged just 18 PPG so we have 2 bottom 7 scoring offenses from last season going at it here.  Steeler games averaged 38 total points last year and Atlanta games averaged 41 total points.  Pittsburgh has been a huge money maker playing Unders in their road games with a 50-20 record to the Under the last 9 years.  Low scoring game here.

ASA TOP PLAY NFL 10* ON Over 51 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 50.5 in the Green Bay vs San Francisco game that landed on 45 but weather turned out to be a big issue in that game. That won’t be the case on Sunday as we are looking at temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation in San Francisco on Sunday. Even with the poor conditions last week (was worse than we anticipated) a GB missed 40 yard FG in the 4th quarter kept that one from being tied at 24-24 which would have led to an Over. The Packers were also stopped on downs at the SF 10-yard line in the first half & the Niners missed a FG to end the first half and both of those results took points off the board. SF’s QB Purdy had a very poor game and seemed to struggle throwing the ball in the heavy rain. He was held under 60% completion rate for only the 3rd time this season and the first 2 were vs Cleveland & Baltimore, 2 top 5 pass defenses. Now he’s facing a Detroit defense that ranks 31st vs the pass and we look for Purdy to have big time success in this one. Over their last 5 games alone, the Lions pass defense has allowed Vikings 4th string QB Mullens to pass for 411 & 396 yards, Dak Prescott 345 yards, Matt Stafford 367 yards, and Baker Mayfield 349 yards. We look for the passing game to open up SF’s potent rushing attack making them very tough to defend here. The Niners are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at almost 29 PPG and we look for them to top 30 in this one. Detroit should have plenty of success offensively as well. Green Bay moved the ball very well in poor conditions last week punting only once the entire game. The Packers ran for 136 yards on 4.9 YPC which could be a problem here for the Niners again vs a very good Detroit running game (7th in the NFL). SF’s defensive weakness is stopping the run (26th EPA) and that should open up Detroit’s passing game as well. We have 2 top 5 DVOA offenses going at it here in what we expect will be a “keep up” game with both teams being successful on offense. Historically there have been 15 totals in AFC & NFC Championship games set at 49 or higher and the Over is 10-4-1 in those games. Add another Over to that number on Sunday.

#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 or 45.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The anticipated weather forecast has pushed this total lower than it should be in our opinion and we like the value on the Over in this one. The forecast now calls for the snow to stop on Saturday night with no precipitation on Sunday. That should allow plenty of time to get the field in good shape. The temps will be in the mid 20’s with 10MPH winds which isn’t bad at all. Both of these teams are used to playing in poor weather. In fact, both played in much worse conditions last week and KC put up 26 points and Buffalo scored 31 points. These 2 met in early December and the final score was Buffalo 20, KC 17 staying under the posted total which was 49. In that game both teams left points off the scoreboard with 2 turnovers in opposing teams territory and a TD called back late by KC because of a penalty. This total has been adjusted too low. Mahomes & Allen have faced off 6 times and the total in 5 of those games was set in the 50’s and the other meeting was 49. Now we’re talking mid 40’s for this total. In their 6 meetings prior to this one, these 2 have averaged 53.6 total points and that includes the 37 point output last month. They’ve met twice in the playoffs in do or die situations and put up 78 and 62 points in those 2 games. We have 2 top 10 offenses facing off (both total offense & YPP) with 2 high level QB’s that are both capable of putting up big numbers. With the weather looking OK as we get closer to game time, we like the Over in this game.

#303/304 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - This is going to be a “keep up” game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and press the other offense to keep up on the scoreboard. GB’s offense is clicking to say the least as they’ve put up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games while averaging 28 PPG over their last 9 contests. That includes putting up over 31 PPG during that stretch vs the 3 defensive teams they faced that ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. That includes last week rolling up 48 points vs a Dallas defense that had allowed 30 points only twice in their previous 12 games. SF’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL putting up 6.6 YPP and they scored at least 30 points in 9 games this year and we’re confident they’ll reach at least that vs this Green Bay defense that gave up over 500 total yards last week vs the Cowboys. The Packer defense ranked outside the top 20 in both YPP and YPG allowed yet played only 4 games the entire season vs teams ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. They allowed 27 PPG in those 4 games and SF is the best of the bunch so we’re confident the Niners get to at least 30 points here. GB has gone Over the total in 7 of their last 8 games and SF has gone Over the total in 5 of their 8 home games this season. The weather will be the one potential deterrent here as it’s been raining in the Bay Area for much of the week and may still be by gametime. The wind, however, doesn’t look bad on Saturday evening in the 10 MPH range. With the spread near -10 in this game the final score is projected to be around 30-20. We have both teams topping those projected numbers and we grab the Over.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 50.5 Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET - Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 29.9PPG and has averaged 37.4PPG at home. The Cowboys have put up over 40+ points in four home games this season. The Cowboys have sixteen 40+ point games under head coach Mike McCarthy since 2020. Dallas should put up points against this Packer defense that is 27th in DVOA and give up 5.6YPP (20th). The Packers allow 128.3 yards per game (28th) and give up the 18th most passing yards per completion. Dallas and Dak Prescott have the best completion percentage in the NFL and average 258 passing yards per game which is 3rd most in the league. This Packer D looked much better in their last two games but that was against a Vikings team playing a rookie QB in his first start and a Bears team that wasn’t interested last week in the season finale. Prior to their last two games the Packers had given up 30 points to the Panthers, 34 to the Buccaneers and 24 to the Giants and NONE of those teams have an offense that compares to Dallas. In fact, the Packers Experted Plays Against defense in their last five games is one of the worst in the NFL and it came against a host of dead-beat quarterbacks. The Boys put up a poor showing in their last home game against the Lions and we expect an explosion this week against Green Bay. The Packers will score in this game too. The offense is as healthy as it’s been all season with a solid O-line that can slow the Cowboys pass rush and open holes for RB Jones. Packers QB Love has been outstanding this season and this team has no pressure whatsoever and can play loose. GBay has scored 20+ in 7 of their last eight games, 27 or more in four of those games. In the Packers two biggest games in recent weeks they put up 29 in Detroit and 27 against the Chiefs, two solid defenses comparable to the Cowboys.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44.5 Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8 PM ET - The weather expected in Kansas City on Saturday night is going to be brutal. The forecast is calling for 0 degrees with a windchill of -18 below. Winds are expected to be 15mph and it’s going to be extremely hard for either team to throw the football. Not to mention these teams have not been great offensively at the end of the season. Kansas City has gone from averaging 29.2PPG a year ago to 21.8PPG this season which is essentially ‘average’ in the NFL. Last season the Chiefs averaged 1-point for every 13.9 yards gained which was 4th highest. This year it takes them on average 16.1 yards gained to score a point which ranks 21st in the league. KC is 9th in yards gained pe game and in Yards Per Play. They have scored 21 or less points in 8 of their last twelve games. What the Chiefs have done well this season is play defense. KC is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per game (289YPG), the 5th fewest yards per play (5.0) and 2nd fewest points per game at 17.3. Against a Dolphins team that wants to pass you better be able to defend the pass and the Chiefs do that well too. KC is 4th in passing yards per game allowed and 8th in completion percentage against. Kansas City also averages 3.4 sacks per game which is 2nd in the league. Teams have figured out how to scheme against the Dolphins offense as the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills have held them to 22, 19 and 14-points in their past three games. Miami averages 13.8 yards per point for the season but against those three previous opponents that number dips to 18.6YPPT, 5th worst in the NFL. The Dolphins average the most yards per game at 401YPG on the season but in their last three games they have put up just 341.7YPG. Miami’s defense is 10th in yards per game allowed, 12th in yards per play allowed and 6th against the run. In 8 of their last 10 games the Fish have allowed 21 or less points. These two teams met in Germany earlier this season with the Chiefs winning 21-14, producing 35-points. Miami managed 292 total yards, Kansas City had 267 yards. Miami averaged 5.0YPP, KC managed 4.8YPP. As long as this number is above 44 we will be Under.

#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Michigan vs Alabama, Monday at 5 PM ET - Weather looks perfect for scoring here with temps in the 60’s, no precipitation and light winds. We look for both offenses to have solid success in this game. Bama’s offense has been simply outstanding down the stretch averaging 42 PPG and 453 YPG over their last 5 games following their bye week. They are 7-1-1 to the Over in their last 9 games. Since benching QB Milroe in the USF game and then bringing him back the following week, the Crimson Tide have scored at least 24 points in every game (10 straight). In fact, they’ve been held under 24 just once this season and that was @ USF with Milroe on the bench. They averaged 35 PPG on the season and after some early season struggles they’ve morphed into one of the better offensive teams in the country. Michigan’s defense has great numbers for sure. But who have the played that has a high level offense? The Wolverines have faced a grand total of ONE offense currently ranked in the top 40 and that was vs Ohio State who barely ranked inside the top 40 (37th) and the Bucks scored 24 points in that game. A whopping 8 of Michigan’s 13 opponents ended the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s offense scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 13 games. They were held under 30 by Iowa (26 points scored) and Penn State (24 points scored) who are both top 5 defensive teams nationally. Last year’s semi final games were both very high scoring totaling 96 and 83 points. Since the 2017/18 season, there have been 12 semi final games and 9 of those have reached at least 45 points (today’s total) with the average points scored in those games being 64 total points. We project both teams to get to at least 21 points which nearly puts us at this number already. Easy Over here in the Michigan vs Alabama game.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis.

#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 Points - Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are two of the best overall defenses in the NFL ranking 1st and 4th in EPA and DVOA. San Francisco gives up 16.7PPG and 1-point scored for every 18.6 yards gained which rank 2nd and 1st in the NFL. Baltimore allows 16.1PPG and has a Yards Per Point defense of 17.9YPPT which rank 1st and 2nd respectively. Offensively both teams have some impressive overall statistics as each rank top 5 in both yards per play and total yards per game gained and scoring. But a closer look tells us that each team's offensive numbers may be a bit misleading based on the defenses they’ve faced. In San Francisco’s last six games they have not faced a defense ranked higher than 20th in EPA. In Baltimore’s last six games they have faced one defense ranked 19th or better in EPA. Baltimore is the 27th slowest paced team in the NFL at 1-play run every 29.6 seconds. The Niners are the slowest team in the league at 31.3 seconds per play. Baltimore’s best shot to beat this 49ers defense, which is soft in the interior, is by running the football. San Francisco is 19th in yards per rush allowed. The Ravens run the football more than anyone in the league at 32.7 rushing attempts per game and will be happy to grind away with the running game and keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. San Francisco is 6th in rushing attempts per game and will also focus on their rushing attack against a Ravens D that allows 4.3YPR. With a heavy volume of tickets and money on the Over by public bettors we will gladly go opposite and be the Under here.

#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40 Points - Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for Wild Card positioning. Games such as these have trended to the Over this season as both team will empty their playbooks for a win. Let’s set the record straight regarding the Browns defense this season. They have been fantastic at home allowing 13.1PPG on their home field. When they are away from home they give up nearly 31PPG. Points allowed in their five road games are 36, 29, 42, 26, 38 and 26. All 6 of their road games have gone Over the total and those games averaged 55 total points per game. In the two most recent starts by QB Flacco for Cleveland they have put up 31-points against a solid Jags D and 20 versus the Bears last week. Against Chicago the Browns amassed 385-total yards on 6.1YPP. The Browns have thrown in 44.7 times per game in their last three games compared to the 37.5 they average on the season. Going up against an average Texans defense we expect the Browns to put up points in this one. Houston is middle of the pack defensively this season and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They rank 16th in total YPG allowed, 19th in Yards Per Play allowed and give up the 25th most passing yards per game. Houston will also score here too with an offense that is 10th in total YPG and 7th in Yards Per Play. The Texans put up over 21PPG on the season and have scored 24.7PPG at home which is 9th highest in the league. Even with backup QB Keenum in the game we like the Texans to score 17 or more points and that’s all we’ll need to cash this Over.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 45 Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - The injury/illness status of Eagles QB Hurts is the big news here as he is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Seahawks have their own QB injury to worry about as Geno Smith has a pulled groin and may not play tonight either. That means it could be a showdown between backups Marcus Mariota for Philly and Drew Lock for the Seahawks. We are still betting Over the total with the reserve QB’s. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive numbers when it comes to DVOA ratings. Defensively both are in the bottom third of the NFL with the Eagles ranking 22nd while the Seahawks are 24th. Offensively though both ae in the top half of the league with Seattle 12th and Philly 8th. In their last three games the Eagles defense has been exposed allowing 33+ points in three straight and 4 of their last six games. Seattle hasn’t been any better, allowing 28, 41 and 31-points in their last three games. Both teams give up 5.7 yards per play (24th) and over 350YPG. Seattle allows 24.5PPG which ranks 25th in the NFL while the Eagles allow 24.7PPG (28th). We are expecting both teams to get into the mid-20’s here. Bet Over!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38 Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - We get a pair of solid defenses here and two very average offenses in what shapes up to be a low scoring affair. The Browns hemorrhage points on the road but have been much better at home where they allow 12.6PPG which is best in the league. Last week the 27-points scored by the Jags was misleading as they managed under 300-total yards in the game and scored a late TD with 1:33 remaining. The Browns have certainly gotten a boost from veteran QB Flacco, but he has a very low QBR of 41.5 with 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Let’s also consider the two games he’s played in have come against the Rams and Jags who rank 20th and 31st in passing YPG allowed. The addition of DL Sweat has bolstered the Bears pass rush which is averaging 2.7 sacks per game over their last three so expect plenty of pressure on the immobile Flacco. The Bears defense has been rising in the stat charts in recent weeks and currently sit 13th in yards per play allowed at 5.2YPP. In their last three games they are giving up just 4.9YPP defensively. We don’t expect Chicago to put up a big number here offensively against this Browns D. Chicago is 22nd in yards per play at 5.2YPP, rank 21st in total yards per game and average 20.8PPG which is 20th. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game in the league, 3rd fewest yards per play, rank 11th in rushing D and 1st in passing D. This game has that 17-14 type outlook. Bet Under.

#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 37 Green Bay Packers at NY Giants, Monday 8:15 PM ET - The NFL Under trends and specifically Prime Time TV Unders will continue on Monday night when the Packers and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. Let’s put aside the Under record on MNF of 13-2 on the season and focus on the two teams involved and the given situation. Both teams have struggled to score points this season, especially the Giants who average 13.3PPG on the year. Green Bay is considered ‘average’ in scoring at 21.5PPG. It takes the Giants 19.5 yards gained to score 1-point and Green Bay 15.3 yards gained for a point. Both teams are hovering around average in pace of play, so it won’t be a high possession game. The Packers are below average in total yards per game at 329YPG, rank 13th in yards per play at 5.6, 20th in rushing YPG and 18th in passing YPG. The Giants offensive numbers are brutal as they rank last in the league in yards per game gained, 31st in yards per play, 18th in rushing and 32nd in passing yards. Defensively the Packers allow 20.2PPG which is below the league average of 21.7PPG. The Giants are allowing 24.3PPG but they’ve also faced some of the league highest scoring offenses with two games against the Cowboys, one versus Miami, San Fran and Buffalo. Green Bay is on a 6-3 Under streak their last nine games and the Giants have stayed under in 17 of their last eighteen at home. With potential high winds and adverse conditions, we like a low scoring game here.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40.5 Points - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the first meeting of the season when the O/U was 37.5 and the two teams involved for 29 total points. So that game stays under a lower total and this number goes up? In the earlier meeting the Falcons racked up over 400 yards of total offense at 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs had 329 total yards of offense at 5.1YPP. There were several red zone opportunities by each team that didn’t result in points including a pair of potential TD’s by the Falcons. Atlanta fumbled at the 1-yard line and fumbled into the endzone for a touchback costing them 14-points. Tampa Bay also threw an interception at the 11-yard line as they were going into score. The Falcons gave up 8-points to the Jets last time out but that was the Jets. Prior to that game this defense allowed only 15-points to the Saints but New Orleans had 440+ total yards of offense which should have led to more points. Prior to that game the Falcons had allowed 25, 31 and 28 points in three straight games. Offensively the Birds had scored 23+ points in 4 straight games before managing just 13 against a good Jets defense in rainy conditions. Tampa Bay has put up 20+ points in 4 of their last five games and the only game they didn’t was against the best defense in the NFL at San Francisco. Defensively the Bucs aren’t as good as their reputation ranking 14th in DVOA (ATL is 25th). The Bucs gave up just 18-points last week to Carolina but the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL. Before that game the Bucs had allowed 27 to the Colts and 49ers. In the second meeting of the same season between these two teams they have gone Over the number in 4 straight with every one of those games finishing with 47 or more points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM ET - Philadelphia has faced a tough gauntlet of games including last weeks OT thriller against the Bills. Philly trailed for much of that game but managed a game tying FG with .20 seconds left to send it to OT. In poor conditions the Bills and Eagles put up 61 points in regulation. The Philly defense was shredded for over 500 yards by the Bills last week and have given up 22.4PPG on the season which ranks bottom third in the NFL. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game allowed (341), yards per play (5.5) and are especially vulnerable to the pass ranking 29th in passing YPG given up. They will have a hard time stopping a 49ers offense that is 3rd in yards per game gained, 2nd in yards per play at 6.6, 7th in rushing and 8th in passing YPG. The Niners offense had scored 30+ points in five straight games to start the season then had 3 lower scoring outputs with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. With his return they have scored 34, 27 and 31-points in three straight games. The Philadelphia offense will face a stiff test versus this top ranked 49er defense, but they have more than enough weapons on that side of the football. Philadelphia ranks top 13 in most key offensive categories including being 3rd in scoring at 28.2PPG. The Eagles have scored 30+ points in 4 of five home games this season and 28+ in all five. It’s not a stretch for both teams to score in the 30’s in this one.

#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game.

#269/270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Many still view KC as the same high scoring offense as last year’s team that led the league averaging just over 29 PPG. That’s not the case as the Chiefs are struggling offensively and averaging a full TD less than last season (22 PPG). The defense is what is carrying the Chiefs this season as they rank 4th in total defense and DVOA defense and 5th in YPP allowed. They are allowing only 16 PPG which is good for 3rd in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. They have held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 21 or less and we don’t expect Vegas to get near that number with rookie QB O’Connell under center again this week. Last week the Raiders scored only 13 points @ Miami and in the 5 games that O’Connell has taken snaps they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points 4 times. The Raiders have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 meetings with KC and this year the Chiefs have the best defense they’ve had during that stretch. What’s impressed us about Las Vegas is the huge upgrade they’ve made defensively. After finishing last season ranked 26th in PPG allowed, they rank 12th in the NFL allowing 20 PPG this season and have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Even vs the potent Miami offense last week Vegas allowed only 20 points. We think they’ll continue to play well in this division game vs Kansas City. The implied score in this game based on the spread (KC -10) and the total (43.5) is right around 27-17. We don’t think the Las Vegas offense will get to 17 vs this Chiefs defense and KC has only topped 27 points TWICE the entire season. Under is the call on Sunday afternoon.

#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48 Points - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM CT - This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points.

#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner.

#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds.

#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up.

#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation.

#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 47.5 Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM ET - We are going to stick with the Under trend on NFL Prime Time games when the Broncos take on the Bills Monday Night. NFL Unders have hit at 61% overall for the season and Prime Time games have been especially profitable for bettors at 22-7 this season. In the last four weeks the PT Unders are 11-1 and the SNF and MNF games are 16-3 Under. Denver has some bad overall defensive statistics for the season but one horrendous game against Miami has somewhat skewed those numbers. In their last three games the Broncos D has played well allowing 19 and 9-points to the Chiefs in two games and holding Green Bay to 17. Denver has also made a commitment to their running game with 137-rushing yards per game in their last three games which is 4th most in the NFL. Buffalo allows 4.9 yards per rush which is 30th most in the league so expect a heavy dose of the running game by Denver here which shortens the game. The Bills haven’t looked like the team that was expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season and they’ve seen their scoring dip in recent games. Buffalo is averaging just 22.3PPG in their last three games and 1-point scored for every 16.2 yards gained which is 18th in the NFL over that stretch of games. Buffalo games have totaled 45 or less points in 4 of their last five. Denver and their opponents have combined for 36 or less points in three straight. We will bet Under on MNF.

#247/248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45 Points - San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers started the season on fire offensively with 5 straight games of 30+ points. In their last three games though they’ve managed just 17 points in each game. They have seen a regression in their yards per play and total yards per game in that three-game span. On the season they have the 4th best Red Zone scoring percentage at 65.63% but in their last three games they’ve dropped to 55.56%. Jacksonville has won 5 straight games and have put up some points this season with the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.1PPG. But a deeper dive inside the numbers shows a slightly different story as the Jags haven’t faced many defenses as good as the Niners. When the Jags faced a Chiefs team allowing 15.9PPG in September they managed just 9-points. San Francisco allows just 17.5PPG (4th) on the season and 5.2YPP which is 10th best in the NFL. The 49ers recently added another edge rusher in Chase Young and are coming off their worst defensive showing of the season in Cincinnati where they allowed 31-points. Jacksonville can also play defense with the 3rd overall ranked DVOA unit in the NFL. The Jaguars allow 79.2 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.6 yards per rush (4th) along with an opponent’s completion percentage of 62.9% which is 11th best in the league. Jacksonville gives up just 19.5PPG which is 9th in the NFL. These two teams don’t typically play fast as the Jags rank 16th in plays per second, the 49er’s are last in the league in that stat category. NFL games tend to stay below the total when two teams come into the game with extra rest, which is the case here. Going back to 2018 the Under is 99-47-1 (68%) in this situation and it’s cashed 23 of 28 times this season. Some windy conditions in Jacksonville will also limit deep throws for both teams. The play here is UNDER the total.

#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38.5 Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 8:10 PM ET - The Under trend continues on NFL games in general hitting above 60% on the season, especially the TV night games that are on a 22-7 Under streak. Carolina came out of their bye-week and was expected to be much better offensively, but it hasn’t translated to the field. The Panthers are averaging just 4.0YPP in their last three games and managed just 3.9YPP last week against a Colts defense that is allowing 5.2YPP on the year. The Panthers have put up 15 and 13-points in their last two games and average 17.5 on the season which ranks 26th. Chicago had found some success offensively with QB Fields but with QB Bagent they’ve regressed. Chicago is 19th in total yards per game, 17th in yards per play and score just 20.9PPG which ranks 19th. The Bears are 18th in Yards Per Point, Carolina is 24th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 20 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Carolina allowed 42-points to the Dolphins and Lions in their last four games, but those two offenses are far superior to this Bears unit.

#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect.

#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call.

#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Indianapolis vs Carolina, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game as Indy is the fastest paced team in the NFL & Carolina 15th. Both in the top 6 in offensive snaps per game so plenty of opportunities to score here. Indy’s defense has been terrible over the last month – they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points last 3 weeks and all 3 of those opponents (Jags, Browns, and Saints) rank in bottom half of NFL in offensive efficiency (YPP). On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has been solid the last 3 games since QB Minshew took over for an injured Richardson. In the last 3 games Indianapolis has scored 85 points (28 PPG) and averaged around 400 YPG during that 3 game run. Carolina HC Reich gave up play calling to OC Brown and we expect some new wrinkles moving forward. Carolina QB Young played well last week with 71% completions and 235 yards passing in first win giving the Panthers some positive momentum. They only scored 15 points but had opportunities to score getting shut out on downs at the Houston 2 yard line and settling for 3 FG’s with 2 coming inside Houston’s 20 yard line. In this game we have the 30th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses here both allowing over 28 PPG. Colts games are averaging 54 total points this season and Panther games are averaging 46 total points, both higher than this current total of 44. Looks like perfect weather in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the low 70s, light winds, and no rain. Over is the call.

#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 POINTS LV Raiders at Detroit Lions, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the NFL TV night game Under trend will continue here with this non-conference showdown between the Raiders and Lions. On that note, heading into this past weekend, Unders were 22-11 this season when non-conference teams squared off. These two teams are two of the slower paced teams in the NFL with LV running a play every 28.8 seconds (21st), while the Lions run a play every 29.5 seconds (27th). Scoring is down in the NFL this season at 43.4PPG with Unders cashing at roughly 60%. The Raiders have the second worst offense in terms of efficiency and haven’t had any success running the ball or throwing it. LV is 27th in total yards per game, last in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. It will be tough to run in this game against a Lions defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed a 9th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup as the Lions rank top 11 in total yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in passing yards and 8th in completion percentage. The Raiders aren’t great at stopping the run so expect the Lions to focus on that aspect of their offense. We don’t expect the Lions to put QB Goff in jeopardy with Raider’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (6.5 sacks) on the field which will limit explosive plays by Detroit. Las Vegas is scoring just 16PPG and only one of their games this season has finished with more points than this total. Detroit games have finished with less than 46 total points in four of their seven games.

#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These 2 played a few weeks ago in KC and the final score was Chiefs 19, Broncos 8. We see a similar type game on Sunday. Bad weather is expected in Denver with high probability of snow and high temps in the 20’s. Not great for a solid offensive output. In their game on October 12th neither team lit it up offensively with KC putting up 389 total yards and Denver just 197. The KC defense has been high level this season not allowing a single opponent to top 21 points. They rank in the top 10 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up only 15 PPG (2nd in the NFL). Their overall defense ranks 5th DVOA and 6th EPA. They’ll be facing a Denver offense that has scored 21 or less in 5 of their 7 games this season. Their last 2 games the Broncos have scored 27 total points vs KC & Green Bay. The Denver defense ranks dead last in many categories, however much of that is skewed due to their game @ Miami where they allowed 70 points, over 700 total yards, and 10.2 YPP. If we subtract their game vs Miami, the Broncos are allowing 24 PPG which is much better than their current number of 31 PPG allowed. They are trending up as well allowing 36 total points in the last 2 games vs KC & GB. We don’t expect many offensive snaps here with 2 of the slower paced teams in the NFL – KC ranks 25th in plays per second and Denver 23rd. Under is the play.

#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here.