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#939/940 ASA PLAY ON Under 6.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, Tuesday at 2:32 PM ET - The Astros Framber Valdez squaring off against the Tigers Tarik Skubal sets this one up for a classic pitchers duel.  Valdez is 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA at home this season!  Also, Valdez compiled a 1.65 ERA over the final two months of the regular season and allowed only 33 hits in 60 innings!  As for the Tigers Skubal, he went 18-4 on the season including 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA after the All-Star break!  Also, Skubal went undefeated with a 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts in the month of September.  Both hurlers come into this one in top form and each of them are capable of throwing an absolute gem here.  These two bullpens both rank in the top 4 in the American League this season.  The Tigers hit just .222 their final 6 games of the season.  The Astros, due to scheduling plus one rainout too, have played only 2 games the last 5 days.  This will not help their timing at the plate either and in particular this is true when facing a tough southpaw like Skubal!  This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 in Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, Thursday 1:05 ET -The Royals are starting Michael Wacha and the Nationals going with Patrick Corbin here. Note that Corbin has a high ERA on the season but he often struggles badly on the road but has success at home. If you look at his last 3 home starts he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 9 hits in 18 innings of work! Corbin does it again here at home. Wacha has been strong in 9 of his last 10 starts! In those 9 outings he has allowed a total of only 13 earned runs! The Royals have lost 7 of 9 games and have averaged scoring only 1.9 runs per game during this stretch. The Nationals have lost 8 of 9 games and scored only 1.6 runs per game during this stretch. This is a match-up featuring two starting pitchers likely to produce quality starts and two lineups that are slumping badly. The Nationals have been shutout in 3 straight games in fact! We expect a pitchers duel here and some books are even dropping to an 8 on this total which tells you plenty about this one as well. The expectation is a very low-scoring battle here Thursday in early afternoon action. UNDER is the call in this one

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs - St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total as it landed on 10 runs when the Rockies failed to score in the bottom of the 8th despite a 1st and 3rd no out situation. That game staying under likely is serving to help keep this total lower as, under normal circumstances given this pitching match-up we would have expected even more movement on this total today. It has ticked up a bit but it should have ticked up even more and there is solid value here.  Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals here and he has struggled in his road starts and now pitches at the toughest ballpark in the league from a pitchers standpoint.  Fedde has struggled in 4 of his 5 road starts since the beginning of August.  In those 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings!   The Rockies will have Austin Gomber on the mound here and he has allowed 35 hits in 22.2 innings in his 5 home starts since the All-Star break.  This was on the heels of a June in which he went 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in his 5 starts!  Since then Gomber has been better on the road but not at home as his last 5 home starts clearly show.  Now he faces a Cardinals team that has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 6 victories.  The Cardinals have scored 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games against the Rockies.  They have also enjoyed success against a Colorado bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors for bullpen ERA.  The Cardinals bullpen certainly has been better than the Rockies but, again, pitching at Colorado is a whole different animal.  The St Louis pen hung on yesterday but last season here the Cardinals allowed 6 runs per game and all 3 games in that series at Coors Field totaled more than 10 runs.  The Rockies fell short yesterday but averaged 5.5 runs a game in their last dozen home games prior to that one.  Colorado's slugging percentage at home ranks 5th in the majors this season.  We like this match-up for plenty of runs tonight as favorable weather conditions are expected as well.  With no post-season for either team they are not playing with playoff pressure here and will be relaxed at the plate and we are confident both these pitchers are going to struggle given Fedde's recent road struggles and Gomber's recent home struggles.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 12 to 13 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this has pitchers' duel written all over it.  Logan Gilbert continues to pile up strikeouts and he also is in top form currently and this has even held true on the road.  In his last two road starts, Gilbert has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 19 batters!  Also, in his only start at Houston this season he allowed just 2 hits in 8 scoreless innings against the Astros!  In looking at the Astros Framber Valdez he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts!  He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 7 outings!  Since the All-Star break he has been incredible with a 6-2 record and a 1.74 ERA and opponents hitting just .153 against him.  Houston is still trying to secure the division and Seattle still has hopes of a Wild Card berth as well.  There is quite a bit of pressure on both clubs in entering this one.  In other words, this will likely play out as a playoff-type game. We expect runs to be at a premium here given the pitching match-up.  Two solid bullpens involved here as well.  Seattle won yesterday's game 6-1 but that one was 1-0 entering the 7th inning.  Seattle ranks 22nd in the majors for batting average on the road.  Houston has struggled with Mariners pitching all season long and has scored an average of only 2.5 runs over the last 10 games between these teams.  We are going with the Under in this one.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and the rookie is struggling to adjust to the MLB level.  Things are not getting any easier either as he certainly has not been trending the right way either.  Matthews has allowed 15 earned runs in only 10.1 innings over his last 3 starts.  The Guardians also have a starting pitcher that has strong odds of struggling this evening as well.  Gavin Williams mixes in a quality start every once in a while but that appears unlikely here as he has struggled badly in his last 2 starts with one knocking him out in the first inning and the next one seeing him struggle to make it through 5 innings.  Overall Williams has struggled in 5 of his last 8 starts with 22 earned runs allowed in 23.1 innings over those 5 starts.  Certainly Cleveland has a strong bullpen and a great closer but their closer Emmanuel Clase would be pitching a 3rd straight day if he is called upon here.  Certainly this is doable for him but yet is not something he has done very often this season.  As for the Twins, their bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors and they may be needed early here the way Matthews is going.  Yesterday's game was a 4-3 Cleveland win but the teams combined for 18 hits.  Also, the Twins won 3 of 5 and scored 6 runs per game in the 5-game stretch before yesterday's loss.  The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.8 runs in the 6 wins.  Cleveland has won 6 of 9 at home and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 6 victories.  We get a low total to work with because this ballpark is not known for high-scoring games but because of the pitching match-up and the way both teams have swung the bat a little better of late compared to usual, we feel this is exceptional line value here.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 10 to 11 runs here.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Angels are surprisingly showing some life again recently and face another pitcher they should hit here while the Twins really got their sticks going last night. We look for plenty of runs here.  The Angels have gone 6-6 last dozen games and scored 4.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Twins will build off yesterday's 10-5 win and remember a lot of recent struggles at the plate also came on a recent 7-game road trip preceding this homestand.  Minnesota can turn it around at the plate now that they are here at home for a bit again.  The Twins will take advantage of facing Jack Kochanowicz here.  The right-hander has seen opponents hit .315 against him this season and he does not register many strikeouts!  As for Zebby Matthews, the Twins right-hander has been hit at a .323 average this season and we can see this turning into another high-scoring battle just like yesterday.  Both bullpens are mediocre, not great, and both teams had double digits in hits yesterday and the Angels also had 6 runs on 9 hits in Monday's game.  Over is the call in this one early Wednesday evening.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - Diamondbacks games continue to go over the total and we are going to take advantage of a low number here. Don't let the pitching match-up keep you away from this one. Last night Zac Gallen threw 6 innings without allowing a single hit. The final score still ended up being 6-4. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well and the Giants should get to Arizona starter Merrill Kelly here as well. That makes this one a perfect set-up for an over. Kelly has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 straight starts plus he has allowed 6 homers in those 3 outings. The Giants 4 runs came late in the game yesterday but they can do damage early today in this one and then also get to that struggling Diamondbacks bullpen as the game goes on. Certainly Blake Snell has been pitching so well for the Giants outside of command issues in a recent start at Seattle. However, the Diamondbacks did get to him for 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season and they have been one of hottest hitting teams in the majors in the 2nd half of the season. Their surge continues here and the hot run of overs in Arizona's games continues to surge as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Definitely not a match-up of two powerhouse teams here but this has actually worked in our favor in terms of keeping this total low.  The total has dropped to an 8 in a lot of books as of 11 AM central time and we are happy to get involved with an over here as this match-up involves two starting pitchers likely to struggle.  Patrick Corbin has shown some better results of late but he has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule.  When Corbin comes up with some better starts it tends to be at home.  His road outings, on the other hand, leave a lot to be desired!  Corbin is 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in his 13 road starts this season.  The Washington left-hander likely to get hit hard at Miami here. The Marlins also have a pitcher going that is likely to get hit hard.  Max Meyer gets the ball for Miami tonight and he went 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA in his 6 starts in August and opponents hit over .300 against him!  The Nationals have not scored well in B2B losses but this followed a 9 game stretch where they went 5-4 and scored 4.4 runs a game and they are facing weaker pitching here.  The Marlins have won 5 of 8 games and scored 5.5 runs per game in this 8-game stretch.  Also, 8 of Miami's last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 28 of 40 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.9 runs in the last 36 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Dodgers had won 10 of 12 games prior to yesterday's 14-3 loss here and they have averaged scoring 6.1 runs in their last 11 games. The Dodgers start Jack Flaherty here and he has mostly good numbers since coming to LA from the Tigers.  We say "mostly" because he just allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in 4 starts and 3 of those 4 starts were at home! Now he is on the road and, keep in mind, facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   As for the Arizona starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, he has made 4 starts since his return.  One of those was against one of the weakest hitting teams (Miami) in the majors and he allowed only 1 earned run but 6 hits in 5 innings.  In the other 3 starts since he returned he allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings!  He just allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets and he faces another very tough challenge here.  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL this season!  Two very solid hitting teams and also the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks 20th in the majors and the runs keep rolling in at Chase Field.  Overall, 25 of the last 34 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here! Also, 15 of the last 18 Diamondbacks home games have totaled at least 9 runs and 13 of those 15 got to 10+ runs!  Over is the call in this one Monday afternoon.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 27 of 36 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 32 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Mets had won 8 of 13 games prior to yesterday's 8-5 loss and they have averaged 5 runs during this stretch. The Mets start David Peterson here and the left-hander does have great numbers on the season and in recent outings.  One of the keys however is that he has faced a lot of weaker teams quite often this season including the A's plus the Marlins multiple times and the Nationals 3 times.  Give him some credit for a solid overall season but keep in mind facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   Also, both these bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them only at mid-level in the majors.  As for the Arizona starter, Ryne Nelson is off of B2B quality starts on the road but has a 4.95 ERA in his home starts this season.  Also, the Mets have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL in road games this season!  Two solid hitting teams and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  22 of the last 30 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here!  Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Orioles Cole Irvin just made his first appearance on the mound in 3 weeks and his first start in nearly 2 months.  It was a shaky outing for him last week and he was unable to make it out of the 5th inning. In his last 7 starts Irvin has allowed 50 hits in 34.1 innings!  He has been very hittable and also has been charged with 16 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 4 starts!   Now Irvin has to face the Dodgers and he is on the road for this one.   LA is expected to have Jack Flaherty on the mound in this one.  He is off a solid start versus the Mariners but he gave up 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 4 homers!) in 10.2 innings spanning his two starts before that one against Seattle.  Flaherty now has to face one of the top hitting teams in the majors.  The Orioles have the #1 slugging percentage in the majors this season!  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL. The LA bullpen is solid but the Orioles are middle of the pack at best.  Baltimore did not hit well at all in their Sunday night loss and we expect them to bounce back strong here.  This Orioles team has scored 5.3 runs per game on the road this season and have maintained that pace in their 19 road games since the All-Star break as well.  The Dodgers have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 18 home games.  We look for these two lineups to be the story in this one as these two teams loaded with potent hitters put on a show here at Dodger Stadium in the opener.  Per our computer math, high probability for a range of 10 to 12 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday night.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 23 of 31 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 27 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  Boston has won 6 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this 10-game stretch!  The Red Sox are off a 4-1 win but, prior to this, 20 of 29 Boston games reached double digits in runs scored and we expect a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Red Sox start Brayan Bello.  The right-hander has a 5.28 ERA at home this season with opponents hitting .286 against him there.  Arizona's Ryne Nelson is off of a quality start on the road but this followed allowing 4 earned runs and being hit hard in each of his two road starts prior to that one.  Both bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the league.  Also, these are 2 of the top 3 teams in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days.  Two hot lineups and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  9 of 12 games at Fenway Park since the A/S break totaled at least 10 runs and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here as that trend continues!  Over is the call in this one Friday night.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8!  Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks.  But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home.  This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them.  Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch.  The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win.  Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound.  He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts.  Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - These teams played a double-header yesterday and that puts some extra stress on bullpens.  This is particularly true in this case because in the first game yesterday neither starter was able to make it out of the 5th inning.  Also, the Guardians have been losing but their games continue to see plenty of runs.  In fact, Cleveland is 2-7 in August and 7 of the 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs!  The Guardians enter this game losers in 7 straight games and Gavin Williams is unlikely to turn that around.  Williams is off a tough start and if you look at 3 of his last 4 starts he has given up 12 earned runs in 14 innings spanning 3 of the 4 starts.  The Twins, unlike the Guardians, have won 7 of 9 games.  Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in this 9-game stretch!  13 of their 19 games since the All-Star break have reached at least 9 runs.  Also, Simeon Woods Richardson is expected to get the start here and he has struggled some in his last two starts and that includes the most recent one even though it was against the White Sox!  Woods Richardson has allowed 9 earned runs in 7.1 innings over his last two starts!  We like the value here given all of the above as well as the high-scoring trending of Guardians games and Twins games plus the metrics based on this expected pitching match-up.  Over is the call in this one Saturday evening.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins look to respond off yesterday's 15-2 loss.  While we are forecasting a much better night of hitting for Minnesota in this one, we also expect the Mets to pound the ball yet again.  The Twins had won 4 of 6 before that loss yesterday and they had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their first 8 games after the All-Star break.  Minnesota did have 9 hits last night but scored only 2 runs as they left 9 men on base in the game.  The Twins are facing lefty Sean Manaea here.  The Mets southpaw has been solid this season but he has allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 hit batters) in 9.2 innings spanning his two starts since the All-Star break.  Minnesota is hitting .276 against left-handed pitching this season and that is #1 in the majors!  As for Twins starter David Festa, he is off of a solid performance versus the Phillies but he did give up quite a few hard hit balls in that one.  He was solid from a strikeout standpoint but, considering the hard contact, he was fortunate more damage was not done.  Festa is a rookie and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings in his first two MLB starts.  His 3rd outing was a long relief effort against the Phillies.  We look for another tougher start (just like the first two) for Festa here on the road and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Though yesterday's game was admittedly an extremely fortunate win for those (including us) holding over tickets in Arizona (was 2-1 in top of 9th!) the fact is the Diamondbacks entered that contest continuing to trend toward high-scoring games here in July and we will take advantage of the rather low total of 9 posted on Monday's game.  Now it is the Nationals that Arizona is hosting rather than the Pirates and Washington, like the Diamondbacks, enter this game off a tough, tight loss as they gave up the deciding run in the bottom of the 9th of a 4-3 final.  Overall, Washington was on a 7-4 run before yesterday's loss and the Nationals averaged scoring 5.5 runs during that 11-game stretch.  We are confident the Nationals will resume their hot hitting here after a couple of huge games at the plate in St Louis before yesterday's loss. We also like how potent this Arizona lineup has been. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of 24 games and some big hitting games have certainly helped lead the way.  The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs per game on average during this 24-game stretch.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks 17th and Arizona's ranks 22nd so look for runs throughout this game as these starting pitchers are also likely to struggle!  Mitchell Parker gets the call for Washington and he is winless with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 starts this month.  He has a 4.91 ERA on the road this season.  Jordan Montgomery expected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one.  Montgomery has been getting hit hard at home all season long.  We are not exaggerating as he had one good start at home versus the major league worst White Sox this season but has been hit quite hard in every other home start this season.  He has a 7.82 ERA at home this season and opponents are hitting .355 against him in those starts. All signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one Monday night.

#911/912 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 3:37 PM ET - The Astros Hunter Brown has a 4.99 ERA in road games and a 1-4 record with a 7.09 ERA in day games. As strong as he has been at home and in night games this season, you can see why this could be a tricky matchup for him this afternoon in Oakland.  The Athletics have been better with wins in 11 of 17 games and Oakland has scored an average of 7 runs during this stretch.  So, Oakland has been trending much better of late compared to their full season numbers.  Houston has suddenly cooled off but they had been hot too and they will get to the A's starter here.  JP Sears gets the start and he is off a start where he only allowed 2 earned runs but on 9 hits in an outing that he was unable to complete 6 innings.  He has now given up 45 hits in 33 innings spanning his last 7 starts.  The Astros get it rolling at the plate this afternoon and the A's stay hot.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday afternoon. 

#977/978 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 10-4 Royals win and we look for another high-scoring game here. Kansas City is running hot after the All-Star break with 4 straight wins and they've scored 6.8 runs per victory in this stretch!  Going further back, KC has won 8 of 10 games and scored 6.1 runs a game during this hot stretch.  The Diamondbacks are off B2B losses but this followed a 12-5 stretch in which Arizona scored 6.5 runs per game during the last 14 games of that.  Their bats should resume the hot-hitting ways here as they face Alec Marsch of the Royals.  The Kansas City right-hander had a 5.68 ERA in 6 starts last month.  Now this month he has a 7.20 ERA in 3 appearances (2 starts).  Marsh's struggles continue here but he should get plenty of run support as well.  Not only are the Royals bats hot, they can take advantage of a struggling Jordan Montgomery who is also coming off the 15-day DL after dealing with a knee injury.  The Dbacks southpaw has allowed 26 earned runs in his last 25.1 innings dating back to late May.  In terms of bullpen ERA, the Diamondbacks are ranked 21st and the Royals are ranked 20th.  We like all the key elements to this one and our computer math model shows the highest probability of 11 to 12 runs.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - Toronto's Kevin Gausman is 1-5 at Rogers Centre this season with a 7.19 ERA and opponents hitting .318 against him.  Home has not been good to Gausman this season to say the least.  We also look for Detroit's Keider Montero to struggle in this one.  Montero is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings.  He has only pitched in 5 games this season but has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of the 5 outings.  Montero has appeared in 3 day games this season and has a 9.22 ERA under the sun.  The Tigers have won 12 of 16 games and scored 5.7 runs per game during this solid 3-week stretch of action.  The Blue Jays are looking to avoid the sweep here but one thing has remained a constant for the Blue Jays of late and that is high-scoring games.  24 of 29 games for Toronto over the past 5 weeks have totaled at least 8 runs.  Most of those games totaled at least 9 runs and this total is set too low.   Per our computer math model, the most probable outcome for total runs scored in this one is in a range of 10 to 11 runs.  The Jays have had 7 straight games total at least 8 runs and those 7 games averaged 11.4 runs per game. We make the most of this low total.  Over is the call in this one early Sunday afternoon. 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are starting unproven Justin Wrobleski who is making his MLB debut.  He is practically jumping directly from AA ball to the majors as he made only two AAA starts before getting called up.  Prior to this season he had never pitched higher than single A ball.  He will be facing a Brewers team that is 5th in the majors for slugging percentage in day games and averaging 4.8 runs scored per game in day games.  Milwaukee sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound for this one.  His recent seasons have only featured minimal MLB appearances and the results have been ugly.  This season, with Milwaukee, Keuchel has only pitched in two games and has a 6.75 ERA and opponents are hitting .316 against him.  His strikeout numbers were way down in the minors this season too.  Now he has to deal with a tough LA lineup and on the road at Dodger Stadium.  Los Angeles has a .441 slugging percentage which is tops in the NL and also they are known for hitting well at home and in day games too.  The Dodgers won yesterday's game 5 to 3 but we expect more scoring in this one.  Prior to that 5-3 win, LA had been involved in 6 straight games that all totaled at least 11 runs!  Our computer math model is projecting 11 to 12 runs here!  We are going with the Over in this one Sunday.