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ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

ASA top play on UNDER 211.5 Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - If Dallas was going to win a game it was the last one, but we still can’t get involved with a side here and are conflicted on betting either Boston or Dallas. We do like the Under though as these two teams have produced total points of 205, 203 and 196 in the first 3 games of the series. Neither team has gotten to 108 points themselves and Dallas has been held to under 100-points in all three games. Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the series by limiting the Mavs to 44.4% shooting overall and 28.2% from Deep. Those numbers are well below the Mavs season standards of 47.8% and 36.8%. The Under is 7-2-1 the last 10 meetings between these two teams and we expect another low scoring game here.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We admittedly were wrong on our last Total bet on this series as they Over never came close, but one critical aspect of that game has us on the Under here. Both teams made a conscious effort to play at a very slow pace as they combined for only 155 field goal attempts. To put that into perspective, the league average was 177 during the regular season. Minnesota had a great shooting performance at 53%, the Mavs were well below expectations at 42%. We are betting these two teams slow the tempo in this elimination game and when they shoot near their series averages of 48.8% (Mavericks) and 46.5% (Wolves) this game easily stays Under. In the first two games of this series these two teams combined for 176 and 169 field goal attempts and totaled 213 and 217 points. We like a low scoring game here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Over has cashed in all three games of this series, and even though the O/U number has been adjusted up 3 full points, we will still play Over. Dallas is getting up 80 field goal attempts per game in this series, which is lower than their season average of 88.6, but they are making 51% of those attempts and are averaging 111PPG. Minnesota is attempting 86.3 field goals per game in the 3-game series, making 44.8% and scoring 106.7PPG. In this series, the Mavs offensive Net rating is 118.5, the Wolves have an ONR of 114.3, both are considerably higher than their season averages. These two teams rank 4th and 5th in EFG% in the Playoffs at 54.3% and Dallas in particular is making a high percentage of their 3’s at 38.1% in this series alone. The Wolves have had their ups and downs from beyond the Arc but are still hitting 35.5% from Deep against the Mavs. O/U’s in this price range in Conference Finals have gone over at a 74% rate and we expect both teams to get to at least 105 here.

ASA top play on UNDER 222.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - The first two games of this series flew over the numbers with 234-points (in regulation time) and 236 in Game 2. The third game in Indianapolis crept Over the number late with 225 total points. That game had a fairly low possession rate with 83 field goal attempts for Boston and 91 for Indiana. The Pacers got two huge unexpected scoring efforts from Nembhard and McConnell who scored 32 and 23 points respectively. Those two players average under 11PPG on the season so it’s highly unlikely they will get those types of numbers against a Boston defense that will adjust. What’s surprising in this series is that the Pacers have shot 51% or better in all 3 games against this Celtics defense that is 2nd in the NBA in opponents FG%. Boston had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road this season allowing 1.136-points per possession. They also slowed their pace considerably when on the road with the 5th fewest possessions per game when they were the visitor. Indiana is also playing much slower at home in the postseason with an average of 92.72 possessions per game compared to their regular season average of 102.29. With or without Haliburton we like a lower scoring game here. We doubt the role players for the Pacers can duplicate the scoring output in Game 4 as they did in Game 3 and if Haliburton can’t go again, Indiana will have their offensive struggles. Bet Under.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA top play on UNDER 222.5 Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - The first two games of this series flew over the numbers with 234-points (in regulation time) and 236 in Game 2. With the two Overs cashing rather easily we are seeing a lower number in this game of 222.5, which has been bet down despite more tickets and general public betting the Over? Boston has shot well in both games which is to be expected considering they are one of the best offenses in the league and Indiana’s defense is suspect. What’s surprising is that the Pacers have shot 52% or better in both games against this Celtics defense that is 2nd in the NBA in opponents FG%. Boston had the 5th best defensive efficiency rating on the road this season allowing 1.136-points per possession. They also slowed their pace considerably when on the road with the 5th fewest possessions per game when they were the visitor. Indiana is also playing much slower at home in the postseason with an average of 92.72 possessions per game compared to their regular season average of 102.29. With or without Haliburton we like a lower scoring game here.

ASA play on UNDER 207.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, Game 2 8:30PM ET - This first game of the series went Over the number with 213 total points being scored between the two teams. The two teams had insanely good shooting first halves and put up 121 points by the break, then regressed to 92-points in the second half. Minnesota made 11 of 25 3-pointers or 44% in the first half, then made just 7/24 in the 2nd half for 29%. Dallas shot 56% overall in the first half and 73% inside the arc in scoring 59-points. The Mavs ended the game at 49.4% overall and 24% from Deep. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. Minnesota is playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. This has been an Under series with 7 of the last ten meeting flying below the Total.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

ASA NBA play on OVER 224.5 Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - The first game of this series was Over the number at the end of regulation with 234 total points. Boston put up 94-points through 3Q’s and looked they were on their way to scoring 124 themselves before a poor shooting, turnover filled 4Q. Indiana shot extremely well in Game 1 and found a way to exploit the Celtics defense by putting Al Horford in the pick-n-roll repeatedly. The Pacers put up over 119PPG on the road this season, the Celtics averaged 119.4PPG at home. These two teams were the two most efficienct teams in the league in the regular season with both averaging over 1.210-points per possession. That means this doesn’t have to be a high possession game to cash an Over as both make shots and typically don’t turn it over at a high volume. Indiana is on a 14-5 Over streak. Boston has gone over in 13 of their last 19 against the Pacers and 5-2 Over their last seven games overall.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 206.5 Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - We are in the minority on the Under here, but we don’t see these two teams getting to 200+ points. The T’Wolves defense has been one of, if not the best in the league the entire season. The Wolves allowed 1.09 points per possession this season, which was the best in the NBA. They faced the Suns and Nuggets in the playoffs who were both top 9 in offensive efficiency ratings this season and still allowed just 1.095PPP. Minnesota was locked in defensively against the Nuggets in 4 of the seven games in that series, holding Denver to 99 or less points. In three of those games, they limited the Nuggets to 90 or less points. Minnesota is also playing at a much slower rate in the playoffs with 93 possessions per game compared to 98 in the regular season. The Mavericks are also playing at a slower tempo going from attempting 89.7 field goals per game in the regular season to 83.7 in the Playoffs. Defensively the Mavs became a much better unit down the stretch of the regular season with a defensive Net rating of 105.7 in their last ten games. In the playoffs the Mavs are allowing 1.105-points per possession which is 5th best among the postseason teams and only 1 spot worse than Minnesota. Dallas is coming off two series against the Clippers and Thunder who both ranked top 4 during the regular season in offensive efficiency. Minnesota was 16th in OEFF during the regular season. Game 1’s of the Conference Finals that have this low of a posted total have stayed Under in 4 of the last five. We like UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 3:30 PM ET - The value in this number is obvious as the last time these two teams met on this floor the O/U was set at 217.5. We are literally 10-full points lower now and will have to step in with an Over wager. One of these two teams has scored 116 or more points in every game of this series. We have had four games where one of the two put up 120 or more points. Even with one of the two getting blown out in a game they have still combined to score more than this O/U number in every game. They are attempting 173.5 field goals per game which is high by playoff standards. In fact, in the regular season the average FGA’s per game was slightly higher than 177 and those games averaged over 228 total points per game. New York is averaging nearly 112PPG in this series, the Pacers are averaging 112.8PPG. Both teams are shooting well with the Pacers making 51.5% of their shots overall, 40.9% from beyond the arc. New York is hitting 46.9% of their field goal attempts and 38.2% from Deep. Historically, Game 7’s are Under bets but this number has been over-adjusted and we like the value with an Over play.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets ML +115 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - When will the NBA be forced by legal sports betting to start disclosing injury news sooner? In Game 4 it was obviously a shock to everyone when Mike Conley didn’t play for the Wolves. His absence was key in the Wolves loss and it showed in the 2nd quarter when Minnesota turned it over 9 times. The Nuggets have made some great adjustments since the first two games and employed a double-team defensive scheme in Game 4 on Anthony Edwards. Denver simply told the Wolves that someone other than ANT needed to beat them and nobody on the T’Wolves roster responded. Consider this, the Nuggets had an offensive Net rating in the regular season of 119.1 which was 4th best in the league. The Wolves had one of the best defensive Net ratings at 109.9. In the last three games the Nuggets offensive Net rating is 121.4. Overshadowed by the Jokic/Nuggets offense has been solid defensive play that has held the Wolves to 90, 107 and 97 points in the past three games and has a defensive Net rating of 95.7. Anthony Edwards is incredible but even he can’t carry the entire scoring load for the Wolves and Karl Anthony Towns just doesn’t show up in big moments. It’s really hard to beat a team 4 times in a row but we expect Denver to end the series tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA play on 10* OVER 215 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - The first two games of this series played in New York finished with 238 and 251 total points. In Game 3 in Indiana, they combined for 217 total points and in Game 4 they produced just 210 total points. One of the two teams has scored 120+ in three of the four playoff games thus far in the series. In their last ten meetings they have gone Over this number 8 of ten times. In the postseason the Knicks have a defensive net rating of 119.8 which is 15 out of sixteen teams. The Pacers have a DNR of 117.1 which is 12th worst. Offensively though the Pacers have the best net rating at 121.2, the Knicks are 4th of all playoff teams at 117.1. The loss of Anunoby for the Knicks is a huge hit for them defensively and the Pacers have exploited that loss with an EFG% of 59.1% in this series. The Pacers defense has been bad all season long (finished the regular season 24th in defensive efficiency) and the Knicks have knocked down shots against them to the tune of 54.6% EFG%. The Pacers are going to continue to play fast and now have confidence after two home wins to even the series. The Knicks will get a big lift from the home crowd and should rebound off that horrible Game 4 showing. The bet here is OVER the total.

ASA top play on UNDER 215 Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 pm ET - The Mavs' Luka Doncic has ‘struggled’ to score in this series with 19, 29 and 22 points in the three game set. That’s significantly lower than his 33.15PPG season average. Luka is banged up right now with several nagging injuries and he’s the ball dominant guard so he has slowed the Mavs pace of play. Dallas has gotten unexpected scoring from PJ Washington who has scored 29 and 27 points in the last two games but we don’t feel that can continue considering he averages 13PPG on the season. Even Kyrie has been quiet by his scoring standards with 20, 9 and 22 points in the 3 games vs. OKC. Dallas averaged 116.8PPG on the season but in this series against OKC they are scoring just 106PPG. The Thunder are having scoring issues of their own as they are scoring 109PPG against the Mavs after averaging 120PPG during the regular season. Shai Gilgeous Alexander is doing his thing for OKC, averaging over 30PPG against the Mavs, but his supporting cast has not risen to the occasion. The Thunder had a regular season EFG% of 57.3% but against this Dallas defense that number has dipped to 53.5%. The pace of play for both teams has dropped significantly in this series as well with both teams averaging 4 less possessions per game compared to their regular season average. We have gotten total points scored of 212 or less in two of the three games and expect that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 NY Knicks at Indiana Pacers – Game 4 Sunday - The Knicks short rotation is starting to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. In Game 3 the Knicks only managed 16 points in the 4th quarter and 106 for the game. If it weren’t for an unbelievable 3-point shooting night the Knicks certainly don’t reach 100-points. New York was 52% from beyond the arc in Game 3, making 14 of 27 3-pointers. NY shoots 37.2% on the season which is barely above average. The Pacers 3PT% defense is 16th in the NBA allowing 36.7%. Indiana had an average game by their standards with a 47% shooting game and hit 38% from Deep. For the game though these two teams combined for 169 FG attempts which is below the league standard of 177. Both teams pace of play numbers have dropped significantly in the playoffs compared to their regular season tempo. There are several key players for both teams that are not 100% including Haliburton and Nesmith for the Pacers and Brunson continues to play through a sore foot. Any way we slice it we don’t see these two teams combining for more than 215 total points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We admittedly just missed our Over bet on the last game by a ½ point, but in this critical Game 3 we like the Under. In Game 2 we had a few uncharacteristic statistics as the Cavs shot 55% overall and made 13 of 28 3-pointers for 46%. The Cavs shot 47.6% on the season and 36.2% from Deep which were around league average. Not only that but Boston’s defense is one of the best in the league holding opponents to 45.3% (2nd) overall FG% and 35.5% (3rd) from Deep. Granted, we don’t expect the Celtics to shoot just 41% overall and 23% from Downtown as they were the 8th best shooting team on the season and 2nd in 3PT%. The Celtics were the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the league, the Cavs were 6th best. In Game 2 we had just 166 total possessions which is 10 less than the NBA average during the regular season. In the only other meeting between these two teams on this court this season they produced only 209 points during the regular season and that was with the officials calling every touch foul. The officiating has obviously changed in the playoffs as they are letting teams play. Every home game for the Cavs in the postseason has finished with 207 or less points. Boston went to Miami for two games and gave up 84 and 88 points in each game. Both defenses show up in this one and neither team gets into the 100’s.

ASA top play on OVER 217 Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We have gotten 212 and 229 total points in the two games of this series thus far. In Game 1, the two teams combined for 173 field goal attempts, so the pace of play was higher than league standards, yet the game stayed Under. The reason for only 212 total points was the fact that the Mavs shot just 39%, well below their season average of 47.9%. OKC also shot (45%) slightly below their season average of 49.7%. In Game 2 we got another up-tempo pace of play with 179 field goal attempts and both teams shot much better than the opener with each hitting 47% from the field. We are predicting Game 3 to be very similar in terms of tempo of the first two games and expect both to shoot above that 45% range. The Mavs rim protector Gafford is not 100% which is a major factor as OKC is 5th in the league in fast break points per game and 7th in points in the paint. Dallas had a strong Under record at home this season but game played on this court averaged over 230 total points per game. OKC strongly favored the Over on the road this season and games involving the Thunder as the visitor also averaged over 230PPG. The two regular season meetings between these two teams on this floor finished with 346 and 257 total points. This game gets into the 220’s rather easily.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -6.5 vs NY Knicks, Friday 7 PM ET - The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks for large stretches of both games in this series but some questionable calls by officials, and late game big shots by the Knicks have them down 0-2. Indiana is going to feed off their home crowd and get a big win in Game 3 as the Knicks short rotation starts to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. Indiana plays at a frenetic pace and rotate 9 players which will eventually take a toll on the 7-man rotation that the Knicks employ. Case in point, in Game 2 the Pacers had 9 players log over 14 minutes each with no starter playing more than 37 minutes. The Knicks had 4 of five starters play over 32 minutes and Anunoby left the game early with an injury and Brunson sat for extended time also with an apparent injury. If Anunoby and Brunson are not 100% this may be a ‘throw away’ game for the Knicks. Indiana had the best bench Offensive Net Rating in the regular season, the Knicks bench ranked 24th. Indiana was 29-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best average point differential of +7.2PPG. New York was a very good road team this season at 25-19 SU and an average plus/minus of +3.0PPG. Surprisingly, the Pacers had a better SU record against the NBA’s top 16 teams at 25-22 compared to the Knicks record of 21-27. Indiana was the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 25-12-2 ATS record and a 67.6% cover rate. Indiana showed some Moxy in the first round series against the Bucks and will be up for this challenge at home in this Game 3. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We expect another higher scoring game on Thursday when these two teams square off in Boston in Game 2. The series opener finished with 215 total points which crept Over the total set of 211. We like the fact that the Cavs had 90 field goal attempts in Game 1, the Celtics attempted 92 for a total of 182. That is higher than the regular season average of the entire NBA this season. Cleveland had a horrendous shooting performance in Game 1 of 41% overall and made just 11 of 42 3-point attempts (26%). You can expect a better shooting night in Game 2 as this Cavs team was 12th in the NBA in FG% at 47.6% and shot 36.1% from Deep. Boston had an ‘average’ shooting night by their standards as they hit 49% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc. The Celtics shoot 48.6% on the season and 38.8 from the 3-point line. The three games between these two teams played on this court this season have finished with 233, 223 and 215 total points. We will bet Over here.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks Game 2 – 8 PM ET - We were on the Over in Game 1 and will come right back with the same bet here. In the opener of this series the Pacers forced the tempo and pushed the ball on every occasion. It looks to me like Pacer coach Carlisle is willing to sacrifice the first two games of the series and wear the Knicks out who don’t have a deep rotation. They then can maybe win both home games and even the series at 2-2, then let the chips fall where they may. The longer the series goes, the better for a much deeper Pacers team. Both teams shot exceptionally well in Game 1 with the Knicks hitting 54% overall, the Pacers hit 52%. The Knicks were willing to run in the second half with Indiana and we are betting that pace continues in Game 2. During the regular season the Pacers averaged 123.3PPG, the Knicks put up 112.8PPG. Defensively the Knicks were much better ranking 9th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP, the Pacers were 24th allowing 1.181PPP and 120.2PPG. The Pacers defense was bad in the first round against a Bucks team that was missing their two best scorers in Giannis for all 6 games and Lillard for 2 games. Indiana gave up 118, 113 and 115 in three games but were also able to score 120+ in four of the six games. New York was able to put up 108PPG against a 76ers team that was 11th in DEFF this season and shot 44% for the series 37% from beyond the Arc. In the 3 regular season meetings the Totals set on the games was 237.5, 235.5 and 248. Granted the Playoffs have been much lower scoring but that’s essentially 14.5-points in value with an Over bet here. The three reg season meetings finished with 236, 214 and 266 total points. The Knicks are on a 16-3 Over streak their last eighteen games, Indiana is on a 9-2 Over run themselves. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -155 vs. Orlando Magic, 1 PM ET - This series is tied 3-3 with the home team winning 4 times by double-digits and covering every game but one. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points, then won by 1-point which was really four, but the Magic hit a meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. The Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 23-13 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 16-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG. Donovan Mitchell is one of a handful of NBA players to score 50+ points three times in the NBA playoffs and he’s more that capable of carrying this team to a victory. The Magic have a legitimate scorer in Banchero but he’s young and not quite ready for this huge playoff road moment.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - Help me understand this O/U number. The first game of the series had a Total set of 230, Game 2 & 3 dropped to 223 and Game 4 was 215. After a low scoring game in the opener these two teams have produced 233, 239 (OT) and 239 total points and yet the O/U hasn’t gone up for this game? In the most recent game between these two teams the Bucks were without their two leading scorers, Giannis and Lillard. Then key reserve Bobby Portis gets ejected early in the game. Some how the Bucks still managed to score 113 points on 51% shooting. The Pacers couldn’t miss in the last game as they shot 52% overall and 51% from Deep by making 22 of 43 3-pointers. Myles Turner was especially hot for the Pacers, making 7 of 9 3-pointers which is well above his season 3PT% of 35%. We expect a regression in the Pacers shooting and also expect the Bucks to struggle to score without several key offensive ingredients. The series is starting to get heated as these two teams don’t like each other so expect both defenses to play at a high level here. This is certainly a contrarian bet as the O/U number looks too good to be true!

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

ASA play on OVER 216.5 LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - In the 4 games of this series these two teams have combined for 217 or more points three times. They have totaled 217 or more points in 8 of the last nine meetings. The Lakers have the 2nd best team FG percentage in the NBA at 49.8% and 8th best 3PT% at 37.3%. Denver is the 4th best shooting team in the league at 49.4% and rank 10th in 3PT% at 36.9%. Of the 16 teams left in the Playoffs, these two teams are 8th and 9th in Offensive Net Rating and Defensive Net Rating. They are also the two fastest paced teams in the Playoffs with each averaging 97 possessions per game. The Lakers are shooting 49% in this series, the Nuggets are hitting 46%. The Lakers finally got the gorilla off their backs with a win in the last game which snapped an 11-game losing streak to Denver. That ensures the Nuggets full attention in this game and focused effort here to eliminate the Lakers and move on to the next round. The Lakers on the other hand should be in full desperation mode and pull out all stops to steal a victory. Denver home games this season averaged over 227 total points per game. The Lakers game on the road averaged over 237 total PPG. We expect a higher scoring game here. Bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - We are simply betting the number here and have to take the value with an OVER wager in this Game 3. Everyone knows how the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with 10-straight wins but so far in this series the (gulp) Lakers have been the better overall team. While we are not getting involved in the Side of this game, we will jump in on the Total. The first two games in this series had O/U’s of 226.5 and 223. Granted, they combined for 217 and 200 total points but that will change in Game 3. The two regular season games in Los Angeles had O/U’s posted of 231.5 and 233 and the two teams combined for 238 and 220. In fact, in the last ten meetings between these two teams they have combined to score more than tonight Total eight times. The Lakers will set the tempo tonight and they prefer to play fast at home with the 3rd fastest pace of play on their home court during the regular season. We also know the Lakers will get some ‘home cooking’ from the officials and will score plenty of points from the free throw line with a stopped clock. The Lakers are 20-15-1 Over when coming off a loss this season, 29-25-1 Over against other Western Conference teams. Denver has some strong Under support on the road this season but those O/U numbers were set significantly higher during the regular season. The Nuggets road games averaged 220PPG on the year which is clearly enough to grab the cash in this one.

ASA play on Orlando Magic -1.5 -115 or Pick -125 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - Home teams have dominated thus far in the playoffs (as expected they are the lower seed) and we expect that trend to carry over in this 4/5 series. The Magic were 18-23 SU away from home this season with an average +/- of -3.6PPG. They had an efficiency differential of minus -3.6 on the road. At home the Magic were a completely different team with a 29-12 SU record and the 5th best average point differential of +7.8PPG. We played against Orlando in the first two games of this series and expected them to struggle offensively. They shot just 33% and 36% in Games 1 and 2. We should see a positive regression here as they shoot 47.5% on the season and 48.7% at home. Cleveland did have a winning record on the road this season of 22-19 SU with a positive differential of +1.1PPG. They have lost 8 of their last ten on the road though and now face a desperate Orlando team who is fantastic on their home court. We like Orlando to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This number opened at 239.5 and has been steadily bet down so we will step in now with the value-bet on the Over. Let’s start with the fact that these are the two worst defenses of all the Playoff teams. The Bucks rank 19th on the season in defensive efficiency allowing 1.159-points per possession. The Pacers are worse yet ranking 24th allowing 1.211PPP and over 120PPG. Things haven’t gotten any better since the All-Star break either as the Bucks have the 17th defensive Net rating, the Pacers are 18th. We also know both teams want to play fast and get out in transition. The Pacers are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA, the Bucks are 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Pacers ranked 2nd in the NBA and scored 123.3PPG. Milwaukee was 6th in OEFF and put up 119PPG. We are confident we are going to get a big game from Dame Lillard or Khris Middleton or Bobby Portis. The season series between these two teams was very high scoring with total points scored of 272, 235, 266, 247 and 260. Bet OVER here!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This is going to be a heated series and we expect this first game to be dominated by the defenses. These two met in the regular season finale and the O/U on that game was 216.5. The Suns won that game 125-106, an easy Over. So why did the oddsmaker adjust this number lower than that previous game? Digging deeper we find the combined field goal attempts by both teams (156) well below the league average of 177 per game. The main reason the game eclipsed the number was a great night of shooting by both teams. The Suns hit 55% overall and went 16-29 from the 3PT line for 55%. We expect a regression here as the Suns shot 49.3% on the season and 38.2% from Deep. Not to mention the Wolves have the #1 FG% defense in the NBA and rank 7th in opponents 3PT%. In that most recent game, the Wolves shot 51% and made 25 of 31 FT attempts. The Suns have the 8th best FG% D in the league and the Wolves rank 10th in team field goal percentage. This won’t be a high possession game either as the T’Wolves are the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Suns rank 15th. Minnesota has a historically great defensive efficiency rating this season and the Suns were above average ranking 13th in DEFF. This one shapes up to be a grinder with a low output by each team. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 1 PM ET - We will keep this analysis short and get right to the facts. These are two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Magic ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113 points per possession, the Cavs rank 6th. Cleveland has the 6th best FG% defense in the league and allow the 7th fewest points. Orlando allows a higher FG% but allows just 108.4PPG 4th fewest in the league and give up the 8th fewest points in the paint. Offensively neither team is great as the Magic rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Cavs are 18th. Cleveland is 12th in team FG% overall, 15th in 3PT%. Orlando ranks 15th in team FG%, 24th in 3PT%. Lastly, this should be a slower tempo game as the Magic are the 5th slowest paced team in the league, the Cavs are 9th slowest. The young Magic have not been in a pressure situation like this and the Cavs best scoring option Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. We like UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 210 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The oddsmakers have over-adjusted this number with the injury status of Zion Williamson. These two teams have met 5 times this season and put-up huge numbers in each of those games. They have combined to total 222 or more points in every clash this season and most recently amassed 258 total points just 7-days ago. The five meetings this season between these two have averaged 237.5PPG. We don’t see things changing here as both look to extend their seasons. We should get an average pace of play with the Kings ranking 13th in possessions per game and the Pelicans ranking 18th. The Kings do their scoring with volume as they attempt the 6th most field goals per game this season and 3rd most 3’s. The Pelicans do their damage offensively with the 9th best FG% and the 3rd best 3PT%. Sacramento is not a great defensive team to begin with so the Pels shouldn’t have any problems putting up a big offensive number here. The Kings held the Warriors to 94-points in their last game, but Golden State literally couldn’t throw it in the ocean, shooting 41% overall and 31% from Deep. The Pelicans scored 106 but attempted 93 field goal attempts. Had the Lakers not gotten to the FT line every other possession (surprise) this could have been a much higher scoring game if the Pelicans could have gotten into a rhythm. This number is simply too low and we expect a game closer to the league average of 227.4 total points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, 9:30 PM ET - Let’s start on the defensive end of the court for both teams. The Hawks were bad defensively, I mean really bad, as in 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. The Bulls weren’t a whole lot better, ranking 21st allowing 1.163PPP. Atlanta is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and will try to push the tempo. The Bulls were one of the slowest teams in the league and will want to slow things down. In the 3 meetings this season these two teams combined for 231, 262 and 214 total points. The lowest scoring game of the bunch was on April 1st but we did get 176 field goal attempts in that game. In that particular game the Hawks shot 50% overall and 48% from Deep, while the Bulls struggled at 39% overall and 25% from beyond the Arc. Chicago won’t shoot that poorly again versus this Hawks D that ranks 28th in FG% D and 3PT% defense. Not to mention, the Bulls have the 9th most efficient offense over their last 5 games in the NBA averaging 1.192-points per possession. When Atlanta has been on the road this season those games have averaged 229.3PPG. Chicago home games this season have averaged 233.7PPG. We expect plenty of points in this one…BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans Pick -115 vs. LA Lakers, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - This is an interesting number to say the least. As of this writing, the status of Anthony Davis is in question for the Lakers. We expect AD to play and this line to adjust to the Lakers as the favorite. When that happens, we will be on the Pelicans plus the points and will even venture a small wager as them as a low favorite. These teams just met the other day, and the Pelicans were favored by 3-points. Los Angeles smacked the Pelicans 124-108 behind some great shooting at 55%, well above their season average of 49.9%. New Orleans had a fantastic game from beyond the Arc (15/37 or 41%) and we don’t expect that to change here. The Pelicans have the 4th best 3PT% in the NBA at 38.3% and the Lakers ranked 25th in defending the 3PT line, allowing opponents to hit 37.5% from deep. The Pelicans have the 6th best Net rating in the NBA this season at +4.6, the Lakers are 18th at +0.5. Since the All-Star break the Pels have a +4.8 Net rating differential, the Lakers are +2.2. Contrary to what you might read or hear, the Pelicans are the better team in this matchup. New Orleans ranks 11th in offensive efficiency ratings this season, the Lakers are 15th. When it comes to defense, the Pels rank 7th in DEFF, the Lakers rank 17th. We like the Pelicans to get this home win Tuesday night.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:40 PM ET - This might be the biggest game on the schedule today as the Wolves can win the West and home court throughout the Western Conference Playoffs. If the Suns win and the Pelicans lose they can claim the 6th spot and avoid the Play-In Tournament. With so much on the line we expect a defensive showdown between these two teams. These same two teams recently met in Phoenix on April 5th and they produced 184 total points. The pace of that game was extremely slow as the two teams combined for only 161 total field goal attempts. Minnesota scored 26 or less points in every quarter, while the Suns scored 25 or less in 3 of the four. The Suns defense has been much better of late as they have allowed 105, 108 and 107 points against the Clippers (2xs) and Kings who both average over 116PPG on the season. We can count on the T’Wolves showing up defensively as they rate the best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA allowing just 1.088PPP. The Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (Moneyline -190) at Sacramento Kings, 10:40 PM ET - This is a very unique bet for us and not a typical wager, but this situation is warranted. Last night we went against the Kings in a home game against the Pelicans and won. Tonight, the Kings face a rested Suns team that is in full playoff mode and 4-2 SU their last six games. Sacramento on the other hand is playing the second night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. They are already short-handed with two starters out and All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox tweaked his ankle last night. When playing without rest the Kings are 5-9 ATS this season with a negative differential of minus -5.9PPG. Phoenix is 15-6 SU when they have a rest advantage over their opponents and they win those games by an average of 7.0PPG. These two teams are 2-2 SU versus each other this season, but the Suns have won the last two meetings. Sacramento has been a home dog just 4 times this season with a 2-2 SU record. Since this is a moneyline bet and we just need the Suns to win, Phoenix is 15-10 SU at a road favorite with an average +/- of +5.2PPG. Both teams have plenty to play for and in a playoff like atmosphere we trust the Super Stars in Durant and Booker.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks are expected to sit nearly everyone tonight and will have a tough time scoring with the reserves playing the majority of the game. They just beat Orlando the other night and limited their starters in that game and as a team they only attempted 84 field goals. They put up 117-points as a result of 51% shooting overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Milwaukee will have a tough time scoring tonight against a Thunder team that is 6th in defensive efficiency on the season allowing just 1.126 points per possession. OKC just put up a big number against the Spurs but prior to that they had scored 113 or less in 5 of their previous six games. In fact, the Thunders net offensive rating over their last ten games ranks 13th. The Bucks defense is currently 7th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 19th worst in the league. The Bucks have been one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 15th in tempo. We don’t see these two teams getting into the 220’s tonight.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - I’m going to trust the numbers here and not my own eyes and play Under in the Magic vs Bucks game. I sat through the Celtics/Bucks game last night and my assessment of the Bucks defense is that it’s bad. The Celtics only scored 91 points but it wasn’t because of the Bucks defense, they just missed shots they’d normally make. Boston had several uncontested dunks and wide open 3’s but shot just 40% for the game. With that said, the Magic aren’t a great shooting team at 47.7% (14th) and they hit just 35.3% of their 3-point attempts which ranks 22nd in the NBA. When it comes to efficiency ratings the Magic rank 22nd in the league at 1.136PPP. Orlando is also the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.8 possessions per game. The Bucks took a huge hit when Giannis went down last night and fortunately for them it looks like he could be back for the playoffs. That’s a big part of their offense that will be missing tonight. Even though I just ripped on their defense, they are currently 11th in defensive net rating over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s offensive net rating over the course of their last ten games is 20th worst in the league. They have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA this season, but in their last ten games they have slowed considerably and rank 14th in tempo. With both teams fighting for the 2nd or 3rd seed in the East we expect a defensive playoff type game. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This game has playoff implications for both teams as they jockey for better seeding in the Eastern Conference. New York is looking to move up or just hold on to the 4th position which would mean home court advantage in the first round. The Bulls are essentially battling the Hawk for home court in the play-in game. One thing we know for sure in this game is that it’s going to be slow paced. NY is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.3 possessions per game. The Bulls are the 2nd slowest at 96.2 possessions per game. Chicago is average in terms of shooting percentage defense as they rank 15th in overall FG% D and 17th in 3PT%. The Knicks are a poor shooting team at 46.4% (24th) and rank 14th in 3PT% at 36.6%. New York is 11th in opponents FG% shooting and 16th in 3PT% D but the Bulls are 18th offensively at 46.8% and 20th in 3PT%. So, we know neither team shoots it well, both are adequate defensively and it’s going to be a low possession game. These two teams just met on April 5th and produced 208 points on this same court. These two teams have stayed below the total in 7 of their last ten meetings. We will make a play on the Under here.

ASA play on OVER 227.5 Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points in this Eastern Conference showdown between two teams jockeying for better playoff positioning. Coincidentally, this game features a pair of Wisconsin guards in Tyler Herro and Tyrece Haliburton who I actually coached against and one of my son’s played against growing up. Herro returned to the Heat’s lineup and scored 17 points, had 6 assists and grabbed 5 rebounds on Friday against the Rockets. Herro is the Heat’s second leading scorer behind Jimmy Butler at just under 21PPG. Miami is on a current 5 game Over streak which includes a game against the Blazers were they put up 142-points. Today the Heat face a Pacers defense that is worse than Portland’s in terms of defensive efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. What Indiana does do well is score points with a highly efficient offense averaging 122.8PPG with an OEFF of 1.206PPP. Miami is averaging 109.9PPG over their last ten games and our math model has them scoring 115 versus this defense today. Granted the Heat have solid defensive numbers but Indiana scores on everyone including big numbers against three similar defenses lately in the Clippers, Lakers and Warriors. In two meetings this season one of these two teams has scored 140+ points. Both of those games had O/U’s set of 237.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Easy call on the OVER here.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA top play on OVER 221.5 Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting contrarian here as the public is all over the Under in this game, but we’ll bet Over. This number is simply too low according to our models. Examining recent road games for the Hawks they had O/U numbers of 228.5 in Dallas, 227.5 in Phoenix and 226 vs. the Lakers in L.A. In the two games against the Suns/Lakers they allowed 136 and 128 and both games went Over the number easily. In their most recent game against the Mavs, they faced one of the hottest defenses in the NBA and only managed 95 points on 40% shooting overall, 34% from the 3PT line. Denver is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.181-points per possession. Since the All-Star break they have the 3rd best EFG% in the NBA at 57%, the Hawks are 14th at 54.7%. Denver has had a few lower scoring games in recent weeks, but they came against other Western Conference teams fighting for playoff positioning. Now they face a Hawks defense that is 27th in opponents FG% defense, 28th in 3PT% D and they allow 120PPG (27th). This game goes Over the number.

ASA play on OVER 229.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Lakers, 3:40 PM ET - We have lost a little value on this Over as the number was immediately bet up from the opener, but we still feel there is enough wiggle room for an Over bet here. The Lakers are playing fast and scoring points. L.A. is the fastest paced team in the league over a 10-game span at 102.91 possessions per game. In that same time period, they have the 3rd best EFG% at 57.2% and the 7th best offensive net rating at 117.3. The Lakers are averaging 123.1PPG over the past 10 games which is the highest number in the NBA by 3 points. When we continue to evaluate each teams last 10-game stretch we find the Cavs are 27th in defensive net rating while giving up on average 112.4PPG. Cleveland recently got great news with the return of Donovan Mitchell who will immediately bolster their scoring with his 26.75PPG. The Cavs have the 8th best EFG% over the last ten games and rank 12th in overall season FG% at 48% and 16th in 3PT% for the season. The Lakers are below average in both FG% defense and 3PT% on the season. An average NBA game this season will finish with 227.4 total points, but these two offenses are going to get into the 115 to 120 range and push this game Over the total rather easily.

ASA play on Chicago Bulls (-) vs NY Knicks, 8:10 PM ET - Great spot to fade the Knicks and bet on the Bulls. Chicago has been off since Monday and got some much-needed rest and we like the fact they are coming off a home loss. New York played on Thursday night in a home game against the Kings. This is also New Yorks 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days and 5th in eight. This Knicks roster is already playing short-handed with key injuries to several starters. The Knicks are 4-7 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative average point differential of minus -2.5PPG. New York is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round of the playoffs, but the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives as they currently sit 9th in the East. The Knicks normally enough a huge advantage on the offensive glass but that won’t be the case tonight against a Bulls team that is nearly as good as them when it comes to O-boards. The more desperate Bulls get this home win given the scheduling circumstances.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:10 PM ET - This game will have a playoff vibe as the Rockets are fighting to get into the top 10 in the West, while the Warriors are looking to hold on to the 10th spot or move up. Since the All-Star break the Warriors are giving up 110PPG. Golden State has the 3rd best defensive Net rating in the league over a 5-game period and have held 4 of their last six foes to 100 or less points. The Warriors have slowed their pace of play considerably in recent games as they rank 18th in pace over their most recent 5-game span. The same can be said for the Rockets who averaged 99.53 possessions per game for the season but in their last 5 games that number has dipped to 97.76. Houston has the 11th best defensive Net rating over a 5-game period at 111.6. If we continue to focus on each teams last 5 games we find that both teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in Net offensive ratings too. Houston has really struggled with shooting in that same stretch of games with the 27th rated EFG% at 53.5%. The Rockets have scored 107 or less in 3 straight games and 110 or less in 4 of five. When these two teams met on this floor back in October they produced just 201 total points. We are betting these two teams don’t get into the 220’s.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.

ASA play on LA Clippers (-) vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings recently beat this Clippers team in Los Angeles as a +4-point dog, 123-107. Prior to that meeting the Clippers had won two games against the Kings 119-99 and 131-117. In the Kings most recent win over the Clippers though, they were basically at full strength with Monk and Huerter both available. Those two combined for 27 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in that game. Both are out here with injuries and the Kings depth is a major concern. In their last five games the Kings have slipped in both offensive and defensive Net ratings and have a net differential of minus -1.1. The Clippers have run hot/cold in recent weeks and right now it looks like they are running hot with 3 straight wins, all on the road. In fact, the Clippers have won 5 straight away from home and 7 of their last eight on the road. This L.A. team has the 4th best average point differential on the road this season at +3.8PPG and hold a 25-14 SU road record. The Kings are below league average in home court point differential with a +1.4PPG average which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Both have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position, but the injury concerns for the Kings will be the difference here. The visitor has also covered 5 of the last six in this series. Lay it with the Clippers.

ASA play on OVER Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game tonight when the Nets square off against the Indiana Pacers. There won’t be much defense played in this game as the Nets allow the 14th most points per game in the NBA at 113.5 and the Pacers give up 120.6PPG (28th). The Pacers are last in the NBA in opponents FG% defense allowing 49.8% overall and 36.6% from the 3-point line which ranks 19th. The Pacers offense is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.3% overall and 9th best in 3PT% at 37.3%. They should put up a big number tonight against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in opponents FG% allowing 47.3% and 23rd in 3PT% allowing 37.3%. Indiana has scored 121 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and averaged over 122PPG on the season so you can bet they’ll get into the 120’s. That means the Nets need 110-points and we cash an easy Over. Even a poor offense like the Nets that ranks 22nd in Offensive Efficiency should get to that number against this porous Pacers D. Brooklyn does average 111.1PPG on the season and has put up 122 and 125 in a pair of recent games against the Wizards and Bulls. These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 221 total points, but the Nets had a horrible shooting night and just 77 field goal attempts. The Pacers made only 6 of 30 3-point attempts too (20%) which is well below their season standards. This game sets up nicely and we like the value with an OVER bet here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings – 9:10 PM ET - We are not expecting many points to be scored in the NBA game as both teams are struggling to find their offenses and each has significant injuries. The Kings have stayed Under in 9 of their last ten games with the 19th worst offensive net rating over that span of games but the 5th best defensive numbers. In their last five games the Kings have played considerably slower too with a pace of 95.7 possessions per game versus their season average of 99.79. While we are on the subject of pace of play, the Jazz average 100.54 possessions per game on the season, but have dipped to 98.6 in their last ten games. Utah is also on a current Under streak with 7 of their last ten games staying below the Total. Offensively the Jazz have scored 107 or less 7 of their last ten games as a result of poor shooting with the 21st EFG% over that stretch of games. Sacramento has also had some shooting woes with the 20th worst EFG% at 52.5% in their last ten games. Both teams are right around league average in both overall FG% and 3PT% and now with the slower tempo from each we don’t see this game getting into the 220’s. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls + the points vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10 PM ET - We like the way the Bulls match up with the Timberwolves as they have the size and depth with Vucevic and Drummond to deal with Gobert and Reid in the paint. Chicago is the 10th best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA compared to the Timberwolves who rank 26th. The Wolves average 324.4 defensive rebounds per game, the Bulls average 32.6. Minnesota has won 4 straight games and are coming off a big win over the Nuggets a few nights back. The Bulls are off a tough loss to Brooklyn and have lost 4 of their last five but two of those came against the red hot Rockets and the Celtics. Chicago beat this Wolves team in early February by 6-points in OT. The Bulls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Minnesota. The T’Wolves have another big Western Conference game on deck versus the surging Rockets and may look past this Bulls team. The line is inflated and we will grab the value with the Bulls and the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans. In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44-points, but it took him 44-shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here. Milwaukee’s recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the FT line compared to the Bucks 19. Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average +/- in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks have an overall losing ATS record on the road as a favorite at 12-15 but they do own a positive differential of +4.5PPG. Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home dog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9PPG. The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the 7th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season. Milwaukee is 8th in 3PT% offense, the Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense. Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th best in the NBA in FG% D allowing 46.9%. This line might be a little intimidating to you but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16-points here the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings over the Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams recently met on this court and the Mavs handed the Kings a 132-96 beatdown. Dallas had an unusually hot shooting night 55% from the field and 56% from Deep. The Kings had a horrible shooting night at 39% overall and 37% from the 3-point line. These two teams are shooting roughly 48% from the field for the season, so you can see the disparity in the last game compared to ‘average’ statistics. The Kings had beaten the Mavs twice this season prior to Tuesday’s game and we expect them to get immediate payback here. Sacramento is 19-10 SU coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +3.2PPG. Dallas is great as a road favorite but just 5-11 SU as an away underdog. Sacramento has a positive point differential at home, the Mavs have a negative differential on the road. Take the Kings here.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers over the LA Lakers, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers to bounce back here off a 26-point loss on Wednesday in Chicago to the Bulls. This is also a quick rematch as the Lakers recently beat the Pacers in L.A. 150-145. The Lakers are playing their 3rd straight road game and have won 5-straight games. Indiana has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +5.0PPG and owns a 21-15 SU record on their home court this season. The Pacers have done well when coming off a loss this season with a 21-11 SU record and a +3.0PPG average MOV in those games. The Lakers have had their struggles on the road this season with a 14-20 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -5.0PPG. The Lakers hold an advantage defensively with the 15th rated defensive efficiency rating compared to the Pacers who rank 25th. Offensively though the Pacers rank 2nd in OEFF, the Lakers are 16th. The Lakers fell into the trap of playing fast with the Pacers in the most recent meeting and when they do that here it won’t end well for them. Back the Pacers at home, off a loss, playing with revenge.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - More money and tickets have come in on the Bucks, yet the line has fluctuated in the direction of the Pelicans. Both teams are off disappointing losses as the Bucks lost at home to the Lakers after blowing a lead late in that game. The Pelicans lost a crucial home game to Oklahoma City as the Thunder shot 53% in a 7-point win. Both teams are great when coming off a loss as the Bucks are 17-8 SU in that situation, the Pelicans are 18-9 SU. Milwaukee is 17-18 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential at minus -0.2PPG. New Orleans is 20-14 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +5.4PPG. The Pelicans have been great against non-conference opponents with an 18-9 SU record and an average +/- of +7.7PPG. The Bucks versus the West is 15-12 SU +0.2PPG. We like the Pelicans here to get a win on their home floor.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +1.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Mavs have a slight scheduling advantage here as both teams played last night but the Kings are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven nights. As we mentioned, Dallas is also off a game last night in Utah, but they had been off since the 21st prior. The Mavs are 21-12 ATS on the road this season and have been great playing without rest with an 8-3 ATS record and an average +/- of +3.3PPG. Sacramento on the other hand is 4-8 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. The Kings have beaten the Mavericks twice already this season so we know the Mavs will come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Sacramento is only 6-5 SU their last eleven games going into Monday night and two of those wins were against the Spurs and one versus the Grizzlies. The Mavericks are 4-2 SU their last six on the road heading into Monday night. Dallas owns the 7th best EFG% in the NBA since the All-Star break, the Kings are 12th. The road team has covered 6 of the last seven in this series and we are betting that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - We have to back the Bucks here at home as a small favorite. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home and are 28-6 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.4PPG. Going back even further the Bucks are 61-17 SU at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +6.6PPG. With a low number on this game we need Milwaukee to win outright and they are finally healthy with Middleton, Giannis and Lillard on the floor. We are not blind to the fact that the Thunder are one of the best road teams in the NBA at 21-13 SU but we aren’t impressed with their last 3 wins on the road as they came against the Raptors, Grizzlies and Blazers. With the season winding down we like how the Bucks are playing and they look like a team that could contend to win it all this season. The Thunder are obviously very good but Milwaukee has owned them in recent years by winning 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight meetings.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 233 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We have two of the best offensive teams in the NBA squaring off when the Thunder face the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive net rating since the All-Star break, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams average over 120PPG which ranks top 5 in the league. The Thunder are the 2nd best FG% team in the league at 50%, the Bucks are 7th at 49.1%. Milwaukee is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9%. OKC is 1st at 39.2% from Deep. Both teams don’t need a ton of possessions to score either as they are highly efficient at 1.197-points per possession (Milwaukee) and 1.202PPP for OKC. With both teams having a great shot at getting to 120 each we predict and easy OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - The Suns are finally healthy for the first time of the season and building continuity as they head to the playoffs. Phoenix has won 2 straight games handily with wins over the Hawks by 13 and the 76ers by 13-points. San Antonio is coming off a game against Memphis on Friday and they've struggled when playing without rest. The Spurs are 2-9 SU when playing without rest this season with a negative differential of minus -10.4PPG. When the Suns are facing a team and have a rest advantage they are 12-6 SU +4.9PPG. The last time the Suns were a road favorite they won by 22-points. Phoenix has two huge games looming against Denver and OKC so they had better win this game. We like the Suns in a big win here.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors will look to build on their momentum following a blowout home win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Golden State looked very good in that game shooting 58% overall and 49% from Deep. That shooting success should carry over here against a Pacers team that rank 29th in opponents FG% allowing 49.9%. Not to mention Indiana doesn’t defend the 3-point line well as they allow foes to hit 36.9% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 20th. Indiana is obviously a great shooting team themselves, but the Warriors defense ranks 8th in opponents 3PT% and 12th in FG% defense. The Pacers have also struggled shooting in recent games with an EFG% of 55.2% which ranks 16th in the league over the last 5-games. Golden State is 17-9 SU/ATS when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season. Indiana is 10-14-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Golden State went to Indianapolis in early February and destroyed the Pacers 131-109 and never trailed in the game. Expect another dominating performance here.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -2.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets are on a 6-game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games with the two losses to playoff bound Phoenix and the Clippers. Houston has been solid all season long at home with a 23-11 SU / 23-10-1 ATS record. The Rockets win at home by an average of +6.1PPG. Chicago is 3-3 SU their last six games and 6-4 SU their last ten. On the road this season the Bulls are 16-18 SU with a negative loss margin of minus -3PPG. The Bulls are beat up right now with several players potentially out for this game including Caruso and White. Offensively these two teams have very similar statistic but the Rockets hold a big advantage defensively. Chicago is 19th in offensive efficiency, the Rockets are 20th. Houston has the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA and the 3rd best 3PT% D. The Rockets allow just 1.128-points per possession which is the 7th best number in the NBA. The Bulls by comparison allow 1.161PPP which ranks 17th. The play here is on the Rockets.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216.5 LA Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - We expect plenty of points tonight in the Western Conference game between the Clippers and Trailblazers. Examining recent games between these two teams we find the two games this season finished with 234 and 259 total points, both easy Overs. Going back to last season these two teams have gone 4-1 to the Over when playing each other and all 5 have finished with more than 217 total points. We expect the Clippers to bounce back after a pair of horrible offensive outings against the Hawks and Pelicans. Tonight, they face a Blazers defense that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.176-points per possession and 115.9PPG. The Clippers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers on the season at 1.196PPP. Portland has allowed 118 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and has the 5th worst FG% defense in the NBA since the All-Star break. The Blazers have been shooting much better over their last five games and a large part of that is due to the improved play of center Deandre Ayton who is averaging 26.8PPG in his last 6 games. The Clippers sport the 7th best EFG% in the league at 56.6% and they should enjoy a great shooting night versus this Blazers defense. With more tickets and public money coming in on the Under, the line has ticked up which is a tell for Over bettors.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET - We will look to fade the Nets who are returning home after a 6-game road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU with losses to the Pistons, Hornets and Spurs who are three of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans has had a few days off and are on a heater right now with 2 straight wins and W’s in 6 of their last seven games. They have also covered 6 of their last seven overall with three in a row on the road. In their last three road games the Pelicans have a 13-point win in Atlanta, an 8-point win in Philly and a 41-blowout in Toronto. New Orleans should enjoy success from beyond the Arc tonight with their 5th best 3PT% going up against a Nets defense that ranks 23rd in 3PT% defense. The Pelicans should also enjoy a sizable advantage on the boards with a top 10 rebounding team going up against a bottom 10 rebounding team in Brooklyn. New Orleans is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite but they do have an average MOV of +10.9PPG. The Nets are 8-9-1 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of minus -4.8PPG. These teams met back in January with the Pelicans winning 112-85. This time around won’t be as dramatic of a victory, but we like the Pels to win by double-digits.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 225 Atlanta Hawks at LA Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off a solid 110-103 win over the Clippers last night in this building and we expect them to have another good shooting night against the Lakers. The Hawks hit 17 of 34 3-point attempts and led by 26-points after the 3Q. The Lakers aren’t as good defensively as the Clippers and certainly don’t defend the 3-point line well at all ranking 25th in 3PT% defense. The Lakers give up on average 117.6PPG which is the 23rd highest number in the NBA. The Hawks just played in Utah a few nights ago and the O/U was 223.5 and the teams combined for 246 total points. The Jazz are similar to the Lakers in terms of offensive efficiency and pace of play. The Lakers are better defensively but will likely be without their best interior defender Anthony Davis tonight. The Lakers are going to put up points of their own tonight against this Hawks defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.196-points per possession and 120.8PPG. Los Angeles has the 3rd best team FG% in the NBA at 49.9% and the Hawks allow 49.3% which is the 28th worst number in the league. LA should also connect from Deep against this Atlanta defense that allows opponents to hit 38.3% of their 3PT attempts which is 28th in the NBA. LA has scored 120+ in 4 of their last five games and allowed 120+ in 4 of five. Easy OVER call here.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - The Spurs are still playing hard despite a horrendous season in the win/loss column. The Nets still have an outside shot to make the post season but they are just 13-31 SU their last 44 games. Even in losing lately the Spurs have been competitive against playoff bound teams such as Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, Indiana, OKC and Minnesota in recent weeks. In their last ten game stretch they have three quality wins against the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors. Tonight they catch the Nets coming off a game last night in Indianapolis and this will be Brooklyn’s 6th straight road contest. Brooklyn is 10-23 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of minus -6.9PPG which is the 24th highest differential in the NBA. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-t0-back this season with a negative average differential of minus -10.1PPG. They are 1-7 ATS as a Dog when playing without rest this season. San Antonio has only been favored in 5 games this season and they’ve covered 4 of them. Take the Spurs in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 or -3.5 vs NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - We like the surging Kings in this matchup and expect Sacramento to light the beam in this home contest against the Knicks. Sacramento is 4-1 SU their last five games and it includes a win over the Bucks and two against the Lakers. In their last ten games they also have wins over the Timberwolves and Clippers. New York is 3-2 SU their last five games, but the wins aren’t as impressive as they came against the Magic, struggling 76ers and a bad Portland team. There is a lot of talk about the Knicks recent defensive prowess but again those numbers are skewed based on the offenses they’ve faced. Tonight they face a Kings offense that is one of the best in the league. Sacramento is 9th in offensive efficiency at 1.178-points per possession, they rank 9th in team FG% and 7th in EFG%. In analyzing each teams last five games we see the Knicks have the #1 defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing .977PPP but they are 27th in offensive efficiency in that same 5-game stretch. Conversely, the Kings have the 3rd best OEFF in their last five games AND rank 9th in DEFF. NY is 7-10-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. Sacramento has a losing spread record at home as a favorite but do own a positive average scoring differential of +1.8PPG. The Knicks are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively in this game as the Kings have too many weapons with Fox and Sabonis.

ASA BET on 10* OVER 216.5 LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We are well aware of the current Under streak in the NBA and how the officials have changed how they call games, which has had a big impact on Totals. But there is no way this O/U number should be this low. These same two teams met just over a month ago and the number set on that game was 234.5. In other words, the oddsmakers are suggesting a 17-point swing to the Under in this game? In the most recent meeting these two teams played at a slower than normal pace and attempted just 116 field goals and the game finished with 223 total points. In the two other clashes this season they produced Totals of 206 (174 FGA’s) and 222 (180 FGA’s). L.A. is the 11th highest scoring team in the NBA at 117PPG, the Pelicans are 12th at 116.1. Both teams have strong Under records this season, but this number is simply set too low. Games involving the Clippers this season have averaged 229.7PPG. Games that have featured the Pelicans have averaged 227.3PPG. Even with the current Under streak in the NBA games are still averaging 229PPG since the All-Star break. In LA.’s last 21 games, only 3 have finished with less than 215 total points. Going back to Christmas, the Pelicans have played 35 games and 25 of those finished with more than 215 Total points. This is bad number and we will bet the Over!