Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-25 | Thunder -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 101-116 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves - OKC played poorly for the majority of the game against the Heat on Wednesday night but battled back for a home win over the Heat. Chet Holmgren didn't play rest reasons and Alex Caruso playing sparingly. One of the Thunders greatest attributes is their depth as they bring guys off the bench and don't skip a beat. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury and they played a very short rotation against the Bucks on Wednesday with three starters all out. The Thunder are 8-2 SU when playing without rest this season with an average plus/minus of +9.3ppg. Minnesota is 4-4 SU without rest +4.3ppg. As a home dog the Wolves have just 1 ATS win in three attempts. OKC is a regular road favorite and a moneymaking 12-8-2 ATS as an away favorite +11.1ppg. The Thunder have a winning record against the West, Minnesota has a losing record. OKC has a big advantage offensively with the 6th best Offensive Net rating compared to the Wolves 14th. The Thunder are 1st in Defensive Net rating the Wolves are 6th. We like the visitor in this one. | |||||||
02-13-25 | Warriors +7 v. Rockets | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on Golden State Warriors +7 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This bet was scheduled back on December 11th when the Rockets beat the Warriors in an UGLY game that ended with a controversial call against GST which awarded the Rockets two game-winning FT’s. The Rockets were at home in that contest and had Fred VanVleet in the lineup and were favored by -3-points. The Warriors did not have Jimmy Butler on the roster who has fit in perfectly with Golden State. Both teams played last night so neither has rest advantage. These two teams have similar offensive and defensive Net ratings with the Rockets holding a slight advantage in both as far as season statistics go. It’s a very small sample size, but with Butler in the lineup the Warriors have the 6th best Net rating differential in the NBA at +11.0. Golden State is 20-14 ATS as a road dog dating back to the start of last season and they have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Rockets. With this line inflated we will grab the value with Golden State. | |||||||
02-12-25 | Heat v. Thunder OVER 218 | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 218 Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8pm ET - This line is extremely light in our opinion, and we will gladly step in with an OVER wager. The Thunder are going to get to 120+ by themselves in this game so we need the Heat to top 100. Granted, the Heat managed just 86 and 85 points in their last two games, but Herro and Jaquez missed their last game against the Celtics. Those two players were out with an illness, so I’d expect both back for this game. OKC is coming off a remarkable shooting night against the Pelicans where they made 49/95 FG’s overall and 27/55 3PT’ers in scoring 137 points. The last 11 games involving the Thunder have finished with 221+ points. 16 of their last seventeen games have finished with 220 or more points. OKC has the 6th best Offensive Net rating in the league and rank 4th in scoring at 118.2ppg for the season. In their last 11 games the Thunder are averaging 125.8ppg. Miami ranks 11th in Defensive Net rating for the season but have slipped dramatically in their last 10 games, falling to 18th. The Heat were dealing with a ton of distractions with the Jimmy Butler saga and can now move on with their current roster which now includes Andrew Wiggins. Miami is 6th in the NBA in percentage of points from beyond the arc. Even though the Thunder defend the 3PT line well we expect the Heat to make enough shots to help push this game OVER the total. | |||||||
02-11-25 | Knicks -114 v. Pacers | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on NY Knicks -114 at Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - There is no love lost between these two Eastern Conference rivals stemming from last year’s 7-game playoff battle which the Pacers eventually won. The Knicks are coming off a humbling loss on National TV on Saturday to the Celtics and will respond here. New York has several factors in their favor in this situation including a 14-3 SU record this season when coming off a loss. The Knicks average MOV in those games is +9.1ppg. New York is also on an 11-2 SU run when playing on the road. Indiana is coming off a 2-2 SU West coast road trip with wins against the Jazz and Clippers, losses versus the Blazers and Lakers. If we stack these two teams up in Net Ratings, we find the Knicks are 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Net ratings, the Pacers are 10th. Defensively the Knicks rate better with the 16th rated D versus the Pacers 19th rating. Indiana boasts a 14-8 SU home court record, but their average MOV is less than the league average at +2.1. The Knicks will be the more motivated team here off that bad loss and playing with revenge from last season’s playoff series. | |||||||
02-10-25 | Jazz v. Lakers OVER 234.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 234.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Will we see Luka tonight for the Lakers? We expect LeBron James to be back after a “rest” or off game against the Pacers on Saturday. The Lakers offense is clicking right now with scoring outputs of 134, 128, 122, 120 and 124 in their last 5 games. In their 5-game period the Lakers have the 2nd best Offensive Net rating of 125.9 and an EFG% of 63.2%. Another important factor here is that the Lakers are playing at a faster rate in recent games with their small-ball lineups. L.A. should have no problem getting to 130 in this game against a Jazz defense that is last in the league in Net rating at 118.4. In their last 3 games the Jazz have allowed 128, 135 and 130 points against the Warriors, Suns and Clippers. Utah has given up 125+ points in 6 of their last nine games. Utah is 22nd in Offensive Net rating for the season but are on an uptick in their last 5-games ranking 16th. The Lakers did NOT improve their defense in the trade for Luka as AD was their best defender. The Lakers rank 18th in DNR at 113.8 for the season. When these two teams last met in Los Angeles they produced 242 total points and the Over has cashed in 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams. | |||||||
02-10-25 | Warriors v. Bucks +6.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a game yesterday, a home win against the 76ers but we don’t feel fatigue will be an issue. The Bucks are 14-9 SU since the start of last season when playing without rest with a positive scoring differential. Very rarely are the Bucks a home dog. Milwaukee has been catching points at home just 8 times since the beginning of last season and they’ve won 6 of those with an average +/- of +6.5ppg. Golden State is coming off a huge second half against the Bulls in Jimmy Butlers debut but there is no way this .500 team should be favored by this number on the road. Golden State is 11-13 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of +0.6ppg. The Bucks are 7-1 SU at home in their last eight game and even without Giannis they have enough on this roster to beat this Warriors team outright. | |||||||
02-09-25 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 127-135 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 228 Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 2 pm ET - No Giannis for this game which is clearly going to hurt the Bucks defense. Milwaukee just played in Atlanta the other night and were Jekyll and Hyde in the two halves of the game. In the 1st half they looked unstoppable offensively with 73 total points. In the second half they couldn’t buy a bucket and managed just 37 total points. We like the tempo or pace of play in that game though as they Bucks attempted 96 field goals. Without Giannis in the lineup, who stops the ball offensively, the Bucks should play fast again today versus the 76ers. Milwaukee is the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48%, the 76ers rank 30th in FG% defense allowing 48.8%. The Bucks are also the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 38.7%, the Sixers rank 24th in 3PT% defense. The 76ers should have their “big 3” on the floor today with Embiid, George and Maxey. Philly is coming off a brutal loss in Detroit, trailing by as many as 34-points in that one. On the season the 76ers don’t have great offensive statistics but in their last 10 games they rank 10th in Offensive Net ratings. Defensively they rank 23rd overall in DNR. In the first two meetings between these two teams, they produced 232 and 233 total points and that was without Paul George and Joel Embiid on the floor for Philadelphia. Granted, no Giannis for Milwaukee but that just means a higher volume of 3’s for the Buck. 76ers 4-1 Over their last 5, Bucks 5-1 Over their last six at home. | |||||||
02-07-25 | Bucks -5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 pm ET - The Bucks were dealing with trade distractions swirling around Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others which clearly had an effect on their play. With Middleton gone they can move on and focus on building chemistry for a strong playoff run. The Hawks made some moves at the trade deadline and dealt their second-leading scorer, Hunter, to the Cavaliers. Atlanta was dealt a serious blow last month when borderline All-Star Jalen Johnson went down with a season ending injury. The Hawks have gone 1-9 SU in their last ten games getting beat by an average of -8.3ppg. Atlanta will have a tough time scoring here with a depleted lineup and an offense that ranks 27th in Offensive Net rating in their last ten games. Milwaukee shouldn’t have problems scoring here with their 6th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that is 27th in opponents FG% allowed. The Bucks rank 2nd in 3PT%, the Hawks are 26th in 3PT% defense. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season with the two teams splitting wins in Milwaukee. The Bucks have won the two most recent meetings in Atlanta by 11 and 9-points. Milwaukee is accustomed to playing without Middleton who missed a large volume of games with injuries so adapting without him shouldn’t be difficult. Atlanta may suffer in the short term without Hunter in the lineup and the new trade pieces (Levert & Niang) not in the building for this one. Lay the points with the Bucks (check Giannis status before tipoff). | |||||||
02-07-25 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | Top | 116-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 pm ET - Clearly the Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers was the most significant in the NBA, but the Spurs addition of Fox was a fantastic move by San Antonio. Not only is Fox a great offensive point guard to pair with Wemby, he’s also very good defensively, and fits the Spurs perfectly. San Antonio talked about picking up their tempo with the addition of Fox and that clearly played out in his first game as the Spurs attempted 101 field goals. That was 12 more FGA’s than their season average. San Antonio shot 50% for the game against the Hawks and put up 126-points. The Spurs should put up points against this Charlotte defense that has slipped in Defensive Net rating in their last 5 games. The Hornets have a DNR of 116 in their last 5 games, up from their season number of 113.3. San Antonio is 2nd in pace of play over their last 5 games with a top 15 Offensive Net rating in that stretch of games. Charlotte was very active at the trade deadline and clearly made moves in an effort to rebuild in the future. They should get LaMelo Ball back for tonight’s game who is averaging 28ppg for the season. The Spurs defense has allowed 125 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Both teams like to shoot a lot of 3-pointers so even if the overall FGA’s are down we still have a great chance to cash the Over based on 3-point volume. The bet here is OVER! | |||||||
02-06-25 | Magic v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 90-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA play on Denver Nuggets -7.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 9 PM ET - It’s highly unlikely that either of these teams are making a major move before the trade deadline today so we will back the Nuggets with the favorable scheduling in this one. On Monday the Magic looked horrific in a game against the Warriors. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. They played like a completely different team last night in Sacramento, beating the Kings 130-111, shooting well above expectations at 57% for the game. The Magic are now 2-9 SU in their last eleven games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -13.2. Orlando has an EFG% of 47.3% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 11-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -12.1ppg. The Magic are playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude in Denver. Not only that, this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 days so fatigue will be a factor against a Nuggets team accustomed to the altitude. Denver is playing at a very high level right now with 4 straight wins and 8 in their last eleven. If we examine that recent 11-game stretch we find the Nuggets have the best EFG%, 8th best Net Rating with an average +/- of +6.6ppg. Denver is 16-8 SU at home for the season with an average MOV of +6.4ppg. They are 5-1 SU their last five at home +13.3ppg. Denver has some of the best offensive numbers in the NBA, including an Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.193-points per possession. Orlando is 3rd in DEFF but teams have shot well against them as they rank 24th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. The scheduling advantage is the difference here and we like the Nuggets to grab a big home win. | |||||||
02-05-25 | Magic v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 130-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
ASA play on Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Kings were involved in the NBA-trade-hoopla when they sent All-Star level guard DeAaron Fox to the Spurs and in exchange received Zach LaVine of the Bulls. Fox was putting up 25ppg, 5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on 46.9% shooting. LaVine had similar numbers at 24ppg, 4.8rpg and 4.5apg on 51.1% shooting. Honestly the winner in this whole deal was the San Antonio Spurs but the Kings came out OK with LaVine and a bevy of future draft picks. LaVine will be in the lineup tonight with the Kings to face an Orlando team that is really struggling right now. The Magic just faced the Warriors the other night in what might be one of the ugliest NBA games I’ve ever watched. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. The Magic are 1-9 SU in their last ten games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -16.5. Orlando has an EFG% of 45.5% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 10-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -15.3ppg. Sacramento is 5-5 SU their last 10 games but a closer look reveals the five L’s are respectable coming to the Bucks, Nuggets, Knicks, 76ers (playing well right now) and Thunder. All five of those losses also came on the road. Sacramento is coming off a road win most recently over the Timberwolves after shooting 49% overall, 42% from beyond the arc. Even with a .500 record in their last ten games the Kings have the 11th best Net Rating in the league at +1.5. Sacramento has the 14th best EFG% over that 10-game stretch and has shot exceptionally well at home in recent games. The Kings have won 5 in a row on their home court by an average +/- of +8.8ppg. We like the Kings in this one. | |||||||
02-04-25 | Heat -3 v. Bulls | Top | 124-133 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA play on Miami Heat -3 at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Heat have had plenty of time to adjust to not playing with a star player in Jimmy Butler as he has been suspended while forcing a trade. The Bulls just traded their best player in Zach Lavine and basically got nothing in return to help them this season. Chicago is clearly in tank mode and going to try and build through the draft. The Bulls are also shopping Vet center Nikola Vucevic to other teams which is another sign they’ve called it for the year. Chicago isn’t in the best scheduling situation here after playing 3 straight road games and also being on the road for 6 of their last eight games. They are just 3-7 SU in their last ten games overall and 1-5 SU their last six at home. Chicago has one of the worst home records in the NBA at 9-16 SU with an average loss margin of -3.6ppg. Miami doesn’t have a great overall road record this season at 11-13 SU, but they are a respectable 6-4 SU as a road chalk with an average MOV of +3.3 in those games. These two teams are nearly identical in terms of Offensive Efficiency with both averaging about 1.128-points per possession. The big separator comes defensively with the Bulls ranking 24th in Defensive Efficiency, the Heat rank 10th in DEFF. Miami has won 3 of their last four games and have moved on from the Jimmy Butler distraction. The Bulls are wondering who’s next to go from the locker room. Lay the points with the Heat! | |||||||
02-03-25 | Bucks v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 96-125 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of the mid-season Tournament which the Bucks won 97-81 as a 5-point underdog. The Thunder were favored by -5-points on a neutral court in Vegas and are now only laying a slightly higher number at home. OKC is 20-3 SU at home this season with an average plus/minus of +14ppg. Last season the Thunder were 36-10 SU at home with an average point differential of +12.3ppg. OKC has the best EDIFF or Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +12.3, the Bucks number is 2.5. Milwaukee is 9-13 SU away from home this season after going 18-25 SU on the road last season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU their last five road games with the only win coming at Utah. They were beaten by 34 in New York, lost by 10 at the Clippers, won in Utah, lost at Portland by 13 and the Spurs by 26. The Thunder will be rested for this game while the Bucks are coming off a big game in Milwaukee against the Grizzlies last night. The Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS without rest this season. OKC has a little extra motivation tonight and win by double-digits here. | |||||||
02-03-25 | Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-128 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - The Spurs pulled off a blockbuster trade to land DeAaron Fox of the Kings without giving up anyone and now have a roster capable of making noise in the playoffs this season, and a title contender next season. San Antonio made a masterful trade to bring in the young dynamic Fox to pair with Wemby, Castle, Johnson and Sochan. This roster is now built to be a Championship contender for years to come if they can keep it together. Tonight, we like the Spurs and the points against a Grizzlies team coming off a huge win in Milwaukee last night. Memphis is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch which featured the Knicks in New York, home against the Rockets, then in Milwaukee last night. The Grizz are also shorthanded with Ja Morant sidelined with a shoulder injury. San Antonio is playing with double-revenge here as they lost twice to the Grizzlies in mid-January by 14 and 28-points. The Spurs were without Wembanyama in their last game, a loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, but he should be back for this game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-13 SU when playing without rest since the start of last season with an average point differential of minus -1.3ppg. The Spurs are the best team in the NBA when playing with a rest advantage with a 9-2 ATS record and an average MOV of +8.4ppg. Grab the points with San Antonio. | |||||||
02-02-25 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 223 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 223 Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, 6 PM ET - The 76ers have found their groove in recent weeks with 5-straight covers and several impressive wins including a victory against the Cavs, Lakers and Kings. The offense has been much better with 132, 109, 118, 117 and 134 points scored in their last four games. Philadelphia has the 4th best EFG% over the last 5-games played and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in that span of games. The Sixers defense has been the worst in the NBA over the past 10 games with a Net Rating of 121.7. Games involving this Philly team have finished with 220+ points in 7 of the last ten. Boston is going to score points today with an offense that is 3rd overall in Net Rating for the season and putting up the 5th most points per game at 117.3ppg. Boston games have finished with 223 or more points in 7 of their last eight games. Boston’s 8th best EFG% at 55.5% should find plenty of open looks against a Philly defense that is last in the NBA in opponents FG% allowed. We expect this game to get into the 230’s. | |||||||
02-01-25 | Suns v. Blazers +4 | Top | 108-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10 PM ET - The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder. Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1. Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively. Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5. Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright. | |||||||
02-01-25 | Hawks v. Pacers -8.5 | Top | 127-132 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on Indiana Pacers -8.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 5:10 PM ET - This line opened at Pacers -4.5 and has been bet up to the current number but we still have value on Indiana at -8. Atlanta has a depleted roster right now with several starters out and they are coming off a loss two nights ago in Cleveland. This is also their 4th game since Jan 27th which included a back-to-back set on the 27/28th. Atlanta has lost 7 straight games with three road losses by 9, 8 and 22-points. Indiana was just favored by -6-points at home against a Pistons team that is playing well right now so this line isn’t as high as you might think. The Pacers have won 5 of their last six at home with the lone loss coming to the Cavaliers. The five home wins in that stretch of games came by 18, 16, 12, 13 and 14-points. In each teams last 7 games the Pacers have the 7th best Net Rating in the NBA, the Hawks have the 27th worst. Indiana has won and covered 4 in a row against the Hawks and the last time they met on this court the Pacers hung 157 on this Hawks defense. | |||||||
01-31-25 | Bulls v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 122-106 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA play on Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are playing lights out basketball right now with 5 straight wins and victories in 7 of their last eight games. The only loss in that stretch of games was in Milwaukee, who is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. In fact, Toronto has the 2nd best Net Rating in the league over their last five games at +14.6. Only the Knicks have been better in that span of games at +15.6. The Bulls are playing poorly as their entire team gets mentioned in trades daily and it’s clearly had an impact on their play. Chicago is 2-8 SU in their last ten games and has the 5th worst Net Rating in that stretch of games at -8.8. All but one of the Bulls last eight losses have come by more than tonight’s point spread. Chicago’s defense is near the bottom of the league in several categories including Defensive Efficiency as they allow 1.161PPP, 23rd most in the NBA. The Raptors don’t have great season statistics, but again, in their last five games they have the 2nd best DEFF in the league allowing 1.057PPP. The trade distractions for the Bulls is apparent and the Raptors are playing at a peak level right now. Lay the points with Toronto. | |||||||
01-30-25 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 239 | Top | 115-137 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on UNDER 239 Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled offensively in recent games and will have a tough time scoring tonight against this Cavs defense that is 8th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.121PPP. In their most recent 5-games the Hawks have the worst Offensive Net rating in the NBA at 95.8. Atlanta has scored less than 97 points in 3 straight games and have failed to top 110 in 6 of their last eight games. What the Hawks have done well in their last five games is play defense. Atlanta has the 2nd best Defensive Net rating in the league in that stretch of games at 97.0. Cleveland is clearly one of the top offensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 1st in Offensive Efficiency at 1.218PPP. The Cavs are coming off a game in Miami last night and have several rotational players out for this game which will magnify the fatigue factor. The Under is 4-2 in this series dating back to the start of last season with only 2 of those games finished with more points than tonight’s number. We like UNDER in this one. | |||||||
01-29-25 | Wolves -120 v. Suns | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -120 at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 pm ET - This line opened with the Suns favored at home yet swung to the Wolves favored despite more public money and tickets being placed on Phoenix. That immediately tells us the T’Wolves are worth a look. Digging deeper we like how the Wolves are trending compared to the Suns recent misleading success. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games and for the most part, the games have come against upper echelon teams. The Wolves have won three straight and even their losses have been close against Memphis, Cleveland, Golden State and Memphis again. In the most recent 10 games for the Wolves, they have an average +/- of +2.7ppg which is higher than it should be considering they have 4 losses. The Timberwolves have the 8th best Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, 6th best Defensive Net rating. Phoenix on the other hand has a misleading 8-2 SU record in their last ten games. Only 1 of the Suns last 8 wins have come against a team with an above .500 record. Against weak competition the Suns have a Net rating of +4.2 in their last ten games, 10th offensively, 13th defensively. The T’Wolves have won 5 straight against the Suns including a win early in the season 120-117. The biggest separator in this game will be defensive. The Wolves rank 7th in Defensive Efficiency rating and have been getting better as the season has gone on. The Suns in comparison rank 24th in DEFF allowing 1.166-points per possession. | |||||||
01-29-25 | Clippers -2.5 v. Spurs | Top | 128-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The Spurs just spent some time overseas in France for a two-game set with the Pacers. After that distraction and travel we will bet against them here versus the Clippers. L.A. is coming off a 109-111 loss on Monday night to the Suns and we expect them to bounce back here with a resounding road win. The Clippers are 11-8 ATS when coming off a loss with a positive differential of +1.2ppg. As a road favorite this season the Clippers are 3-3 ATS but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +9.7ppg. San Antonio is 5-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -6.4ppg. The Spurs have faced the Grizzlies twice, Denver and this Clippers team in their last four true home games. They were beaten by 28 and 14 by Memphis, lost by 1-point to Denver and embarrassed this Clippers club by 36 on this court. Kawhi Leonard did not play in the most recent meeting and should be available this time around. Looking at the Clippers 10 most recent games we find they have the 3rd best Net Rating differential in the NBA. In that same 10 games the Spurs rank 25th. The Spurs offense will have a tough time against this Clippers defense that is 3rd in opponents FG%, 3rd in 3PT% and give up the 3rd fewest points per gam3e at 106.9. Before getting throttled in the most recent meeting the Clippers had won 8 in a row against the Spurs, four of which were in San Antonio, all by more than this spread. | |||||||
01-29-25 | Kings v. 76ers OVER 228 | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins play on OVER 228 Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers – 7:40 pm ET - Sacramento is averaging 120.7ppg in their last ten games, 121.3ppg in their last fifteen. The Kings have played at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the 6th most efficient offense over that span of games. The Kings have scored 120 plus in 9 of their last twelve games and should have a problem getting to that number against a 76ers defense that is 29th in Defensive Net rating in their last 15 games. The Kings only managed 110 points against the Net last game out after getting off to a very slow start in the first two quarters. Sacramento played much slower than normal with 82 field goal attempts, 9.1 less than their season average of 91.1 FGA’s per game. Sacramento is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6% and should get plenty of wide-open looks against a Sixers D that ranks 29th in FG% defense. Philadelphia is coming off a game last night against the Lakers with Maxey scoring 43 in their 118-104 win. The Sixers are 5-2 Over when playing without rest and 11-4-2 Over in non-Conference games this season. The Kings are in the bottom half of the league in Defensive Efficiency rating for the season allowing 1.142-points per possession so Philly should do some damage on that end of the court too. We like OVER in this one. | |||||||
01-27-25 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 232 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 232 New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, 7:40PM ET - These two teams are playing well right now, much better than their overall records of 12-34 (Pelicans) and 13-32 (Raptors). New Orleans has won 4 of their last six games, while the Raptors have hit 5 of their last six games. You won’t find either of these teams in the upper echelon of the NBA in terms of Offensive Efficiency for the season, but you will find they have been much better in that regard recently. New Orleans is 14th in OEFF in their last five games, the Raptors are 18th. Both of these teams are averaging better than 1.141-points per possession in that five-game span. The other big factor in this Over wager is the pace of play by each team. The Raptors are 9th in pace on the season and are played at a faster tempo in their most recent five games. The Pelicans are 15th in pace for the year, but currently the 4th fastest paced in the league over the last five games. A big reason for both teams resurgence is their overall team health as both have gotten key players back from injury. Games involving the Pelicans have gone over this number in 7 of the last eight games. Toronto is 13-10 to the Over at home this season with those games averaging 228 total points. With two of the worst defenses in the NBA squaring off we expect a ton of points in this one. | |||||||
01-26-25 | Thunder -13.5 v. Blazers | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 at Portland Trailblazers, 6pm et - The Blazers four game winning streak is a bit of fool’s gold as it came against four teams with a combined 77-102 SU record and each team has some current ‘issues’. In that stretch of games, the Blazers beat the Heat and Bulls who are in the middle of several trade rumors, Orlando who is adjusting to players coming back and Charlotte without LaMelo Ball. Porland returns home where they are 9-12 SU with a negative point differential of -9.1ppg. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Mavericks, so we expect them to bounce back here with a little more energy and focus than normal. The Thunder are 41-34 ATS going back to 2022 when coming off a SU loss. OKC is 16-5 SU, 12-7-2 ATS this season on the road with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.1ppg. Recently the Blazers lost at home by 22 to the Rockets (-11) and by 29 to the Clippers (-7). OKC has won 14 straight meetings with the Blazers including a win on this court in early November by 23-points. We typically don’t like laying double-digits on the road but will make an exception here. | |||||||
01-25-25 | Bucks v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30pm et - The Clippers and Bucks got off to poor starts this season, but both have turned things around with Milwaukee winning 5 straight and 8 of ten, while the Clippers are 5-2 SU their last seven. LA has also won 16 of their last twenty home games, 6 of their last eight in their own building by an average of +15ppg. When it comes to overall season statistics these teams are identical in terms of Net Rating at +3.3. At home the Clippers Net Rating is +7.9, the 5th highest number in the NBA, the Bucks road Net Rating is -2.4 or 17th. The biggest advantage for the Clippers in this matchup is on the boards. LA is the 6th best rebounding team in the NBA the Bucks are 14th. Milwaukee is last in the NBA in offensive rebounding but 1st in defensive rebounding. The Clippers though average just 3 less defensive rebounds per game than Milwaukee so there isn’t much of an advantage there. The Bucks are in the center of trade rumors which has to be a distraction for several players including key contributors in Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others. Of the Bucks 8 road wins this season only two have come against teams with winning records. Lay the points here with the Clippers. | |||||||
01-25-25 | Lakers -115 v. Warriors | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
ASA play on LA Lakers -115 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:40pm et. The Lakers are clearly the better team in this match up and have the best player on the court in AD. His supporting cast is much better than the make-shift lineup the Warriors have around Steph Curry. On the season, the Lakers rate 20th in overall Net Rating at -1.6, whereas the Warriors check in at 13th with a 0.1. In each teams last ten games the Lakers have the 10th best Net Rating at +2.2, the Warriors are 18th at -7.4. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games including an impressive win over the Celtics. Golden State is 3-2 SU their last five games and were blown out by 40 versus the Celtics in that stretch of games. A closer look at each teams last five games we find the Warriors have the edge in offensive efficiency rating but it’s the Lakers who hold a massive advantage in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.072-points per possession compared to GST who is allowing 1.191PPP. The Lakers beat this Warriors team on this court the last time they met and that was with Anthony Davis playing just 7 minutes as he left early with an ankle injury. That was a close 2-point Lakers win, this time it won’t be as close. | |||||||
01-24-25 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 242 | Top | 126-139 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 242 New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - This is an extremely high number, but we do expect both teams to get into the mid-120’s and push this game Over the total. These two teams met in late December and combined for 256 total points so we know they can get there. New Orleans is getting some players back and it’s starting to show in their results as they’ve won 4 in a row and 5 of six. They have scored 119 or more points in 6 straight games. A closer look at those last six games we find the Pelicans are playing fast with the 6th highest possession rate in the league. They have been more efficient also with the 6th best offensive rating. Memphis has been playing equally as well with 4 straight wins and 5 of six. The Grizzlies put up points on everyone. Memphis has scored 118 or more in 5 of the last six games and is currently the highest scoring team in the NBA at 123.3ppg. On the season the Grizz are 5th in FG%, 2nd in FG attempts and 8th in 3PT%. Memphis is 5th in offensive rating and EFG% and play at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.91 possessions per game. With both teams willing to play fast, unless both shoot horribly this game should go over rather easily. | |||||||
01-23-25 | Bulls +2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 106-131 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - The Warriors are in a tough spot here having played a big game against the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Bulls last played on Monday and beat a solid Clippers team in their own building. Golden State is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.3ppg. Conversely, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage. Going back to the start of last season the Bulls are 17-10 ATS with a rest advantage and an average plus/minus of +2.4ppg. Golden State has some major injury concerns with Draymond Green doubtful and Kuminga out. Steph Curry isn’t the same player he once was and the second night of a back-to-back might be too much to ask of the aging Hall of Famer. The Bulls are 1-5 SU their last six games but played well most recently in their 13-point win against the Clippers. The Warriors haven’t been much better of late with a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games. We expect the Bulls to play well again here and won’t be surprised when they win outright. | |||||||
01-23-25 | Spurs v. Pacers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 140-110 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 230.5 Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs 2 pm ET (Played in Paris France) - This is a specialty gimmick game by the NBA to broaden its reach in Europe and is being played in Paris, France. So essentially a home game for Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs. This is an interesting situation for both teams with the extended travel and we don’t feel it’s going to help with their offensive efficiency. We ran the season statistics through our math model and it projected 226.3 total points being scored. When we run the numbers in the last five games for each team it settles in at 225.4 total points. The Spurs recently played a 2-game set with the Grizzlies (4th fastest) and had a game against the Bucks who rank 8th in pace of play. Even with those games factored into the equation we still come up with a lower number than the oddsmakers. The Pacers were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago at 101.7 possessions per game, this season they are 10th at 99.4. The Spurs are 18th in pace this season and offensive efficiency rating while scoring just 111.6ppg. Indiana is top 10 in offensive efficiency and scoring 115.2ppg. In this environment we don't see these two teams combining for more than 225 total points. | |||||||
01-23-25 | Spurs v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 140-110 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2 PM ET - *Note being played in Paris, France today*. This is a sort of homecoming for Victor Wembanyama but I don’t think that’s going to play a big part in this outcome. In fact, it may be a detriment if the young phenom is “over-hyped” for the game. Here are the facts on this game. The Pacers are healthy and playing lights out with 8 wins in their last nine games. Over that span of games the Pacers have the 3rd best Net Rating behind the Nuggets and Thunder. Indiana has an average +/- in those games of +11.3ppg, also 3rd best in the NBA. It’s been the Pacers defense that has sparked this streak as their Defensive Net rating of 107.7 is significantly lower than their season number of 113.6. San Antonio is a respectable 19-22 SU on the season but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor. The Spurs have just 1 win in their last seven games with 5 of the six losses coming by double-digits. In their last ten games the Spurs have a -3.4 Net Rating which is 23rd worst in the league. San Antonio just won’t be able to keep up with this Pacers offense that is 4th in FG% and 7th in 3PT%. In comparison the Spurs are 21st and 24th in those two shooting categories. | |||||||
01-21-25 | 76ers v. Nuggets OVER 230 | Top | 109-144 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm et - We have a solid recent comparable game for the 76ers in this situation as they just played in Milwaukee on Sunday with the game going Over 226.5 in that game. That game played out as projections suggested in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency and pace of play. Tonight, the 76ers face a Nuggets team that is better offensively than the Bucks, plays faster and is worse defensively and the O/U is only 3-points higher. The Nuggets are average in terms of Defensive Efficiency ranking 14th at 1.138-points per possession allowed. The 76ers are 20th giving up 1.146PPP. Philadelphia is the slowest paced team in the league but the Nuggets will force them to play faster with their 5th fastest pace in the NBA. The 76ers have allowed 115 or more points in 5 of their last six games with the Over cashing in four of those six. Denver has scored 118+ in 5 of their last nine games and the four that they didn’t reach that number came against defenses ranked 12th or better, which is not the case with Philadelphia. The Sixers have injury concerns tonight with Embiid out and several starters including Paul George questionable but we still like them to get to 110+ in this game. Denver averages 120ppg at home so we expect them to get to that number here too. When these two teams have played out of Conference this season, they have a combined 22-6-2 OVER record. | |||||||
01-21-25 | Blazers +11 v. Heat | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +11 at Miami Heat, 7:30 pm et - These same two teams recently met in Portland with the Heat winning 119-98 as a 5-point favorite. Portland was coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. They shot well below season standards at 38% overall and 29% from beyond the arc. Miami shot above expectations from the 3-point line by hitting 19 of 44 attempts or 43%. The Blazers had an +8-rebound advantage. Miami is coming off a win over the Spurs on Sunday and has a big road game on deck against the Bucks, plus they continue to deal with the Jimmy Butler trade distraction. Portland got a much-needed home win over the Bulls on Sunday after losing 5 games in a row. The Heat are 11-8 SU at home this season, but 9-11 ATS with an average +/- of plus +2.6ppg. The Blazers have a winning spread record on the road of 11-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -8.5ppg. As a double-digit road dog, the Blazers are 6-3 ATS and won outright recently in Milwaukee as a +11.5 points underdog and the Bucks are rated significantly higher than Miami in our power rankings. Even though the Heat are clearly the better overall shooting team, we like the Blazers offensive rebound advantage in this matchup and expect that edge to keep them close in this one. Grab the points. | |||||||
01-20-25 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - This is a fill in game and both teams are in a tough scheduling situation having played last night. The Clippers beat their intown rivals the Lakers 116-102, the Bulls lost in Portland 102-113. Chicago has seen inflated O/U numbers in recent weeks which has given value to the Under bettors out there paying attention. The Bulls have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight games now and have played at a slower pace, been better defensively and worse offensively. Most important is the Bulls pace of play which has dipped, and their defensive efficiency has gone from 1.163PPP to 1.144PPP. The Clippers hired Jeff VanGundy in the offseason and their defense has steadily improved throughout the season. LA currently allows 1.081PPP which is second in the NBA only behind OKC. It’s a good thing their defense has been that good because they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Clippers have stayed Under their total in 6 of their last nine games and only two of their last ten games have finished with more than 227 total points. The last time these two teams met on this floor they produced 214 total points. We expect another game in that range today. | |||||||
01-19-25 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 219.5 San Antonio at Miami Heat, 3:10 PM ET - The total on this game opened 222, was bet down below 220, but is not trending back up. The betting indicators are telling us this line could go higher yet so we recommend a wager sooner than later. In breaking down the Offensive and Defensive efficiencies for both teams along with pace of play we find the numbers suggest an ‘average’ game in the NBA. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226 total points. Miami is dealing with the Jimmy Butler distraction, and it showed defensively in their last game when they allowed 133 points to Denver. San Antonio is coming off a two-game set against the Grizzlies where they allowed 129 and 140 points. The last seven games involving the Spurs has finished with more total points than this number. Miami has been known for their defense for years under coach Spoelstra but this season they are hovering just above league average in most key categories. They are 12th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. The Spurs are 11th in opponents FG%, 9th in 3PT% allowed but give up the 14th most points per game at 112.7ppg. | |||||||
01-18-25 | Rockets -11 v. Blazers | Top | 125-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets. | |||||||
01-17-25 | Raptors +11.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-130 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors. | |||||||
01-16-25 | Rockets v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 127-132 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level. | |||||||
01-15-25 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Spurs | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win. | |||||||
01-14-25 | Kings v. Bucks -125 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -125 vs Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This number reflects just how well the Kings have been playing since the firing of head coach Mike Brown. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight games with the 4th best Net rating in that stretch of games. Milwaukee has been up-an-down this season as evidenced by their four most recent games, going 3-0, then losing by 34 to the Knicks. Off that disastrous loss we predict the Bucks to bounce back at home and win this game by margin. The Bucks are 11-7 SU at home this season with a positive Net rating of +4.0. The Kings have a 10-7 SU road record, but the majority of their wins have come at the expense of teams with losing records. It’s not as good as you would expect, but the Bucks are 28-24 SU, +2.3ppg coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. The big edge the Bucks have in this game is their 2nd ranked 3PT% shooting (38.7%) going up against the Kings defense that is 27th in 3PT% defense allowing 37.6%. This is a series the Bucks have dominated in recent history with a 9-1 SU run and we are betting they get a home win tonight by 6+ points. | |||||||
01-13-25 | Pistons +8.5 v. Knicks | Top | 124-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA play on Detroit Pistons +8.5 at NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is going to be a tough spot for the Knicks who just played a huge game against the Bucks yesterday AND were coming off a big game against the Thunder 2 nights prior. So not only are the Knicks coming off two big named opponents they are also playing without rest and the 3rd game in four nights. New York is 1-3 ATS when playing without rest this season, 5-12 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Detroit is playing extremely well right now with an 8-2 SU record their last ten games and they have the 8th best Net differential rating of +4.6 in the league over that course of games. In comparison, the Knicks have a Net differential rating of +4.8 over that same 10-game stretch. New York is 13-6 SU at home this season with one of the better average scoring margin at +9.6ppg, but the Pistons are 10-10 SU away with a +/- of 0.0 which is 13th. The Knicks typically enjoy a big rebounding advantage over their opponents but that won’t be the case here with Detroit ranking 5th in Total Rebound %, tied with the Knicks. This is a great scheduling situation to back the Pistons plus the points in this one. | |||||||
01-12-25 | Pacers +9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +9.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6 pm ET - We know it’s tough to bet against the Cavaliers right now who are on a 12-game winning streak, but the oddsmakers have been forced to adjust and the value now lies with the underdog Pacers. If we look at each teams last 7 games alone we find the Cavs are 7-0 SU with an average +/- of +11.3ppg. Indiana in that same time frame is 6-1 SU with a +/- of +10.6ppg. They have the exact same Net Rating in that 7-game stretch of +10.6. Indiana had a slow start to the season and played well below expectations after last season’s success but they’ve clearly turned the corner as they’ve gotten healthy. The Cavs have been putting up huge numbers but that is also a strength of this Pacers team that is more than capable of playing fast and scoring. Indiana is 4th in team FG%, 7th in made FG’s and 8th in 3PT%. Our point is this team is more than capable of trading points with Cleveland. Grab the points with the Pacers. | |||||||
01-11-25 | Jazz +11.5 v. Suns | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +11.5 at Phoenix Suns – 5pm ET - The Suns are certainly a marquee team in the NBA with star power in Durant, Booker and even Beal to a lesser extent. They continue to be priced like a top 10 team when in reality they haven’t played to that level with a 17-19 SU record. The Suns have been favored by -8 or more points four times this season and they’ve failed to cover every one of those games. It’s been nearly a full month since they’ve been installed as a double-digit chalk. The Suns are 5-11 ATS their last sixteen games overall. Utah has been hit hard by injuries with three starters out, but they’ve actually played better statistically in their last five games. On the season the Jazz have a negative overall Efficiency Differential of -8.8, but in their last five games they are plus +0.2. In fact, the Jazz rate higher in Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency ratings in their last five games compared to the Suns last five games. Not one of the Suns last seven wins come by more than 11-points and that includes a game in Utah on December 13th which they won by 8-points. Utah is just 2-7 SU their last nine games but only 1 of those seven losses came by more than this spread tonight. It’s not pretty, but back the dog in this one. | |||||||
01-10-25 | Kings +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
ASA play on Sacramento Kings +10.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Kings were clearly underachieving to start the season, and it looks to us like the players had tuned head coach Mike Brown out. With Brown fired, the Kings have won 5 straight games, and all of those wins came against potential playoff teams. It’s a smaller sample size, but when we examine the last five games of each team, we find the Celtics have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA at +17.1, but the Kings are 3rd at +11.1. If this is now the same version of the Kings that we saw a year ago we like their chances here as double-digit underdog. Last year, the Kings had the 9th best average scoring differential on the road of +1.0ppg. Last season the Kings were 14-10 ATS as a road dog and 16-14 ATS against the East. Boston isn’t in the best situation here having just played 4 road games against four of the best teams in the league and their last game was at altitude in Denver on Tuesday night. This line is based on the Kings season lo statistics but it’s obvious they needed a new voice in the locker room and have turned things around. Grab the points with the Kings. | |||||||
01-09-25 | Blazers v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA NBA PLAY UNDER 221 Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Mavs will be without Luka and Kyrie again tonight which greatly diminishes their scoring numbers. For the entire season the Mavs have the 6th best offensive net rating in the NBA at 115.6. In their last 7 games without Luka Doncic, they fall to 24th in ONR and now they don’t have Kyrie Irving and his 24ppg to rely on. Dallas did score 118 last time out against the Lakers but the Mavs shot well above season standards, making 45 of 86 field goal attempts or 52%. They also hit 18/38 3PT’s or 47%. Portland is coming off a game in New Orleans last night, a 119-100 win. The Blazers also had an extremely hot shooting night of 55% overall and 36% from Deep. Those numbers were much higher than their season averages of 45.1% and 33.7%. Don’t expect those statistics again tonight against a Mavs team that holds opponents to the 9th lowest FG% in the NBA. The Blazers defense is bottom 10 in terms of defensive net rating for the season, but in their last four games they’ve been much better, ranking 10th. With Luka in the lineup the Mavs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season. Without him on the floor they are average in tempo. The Blazers prefer to play slower overall for the season and have slowed even more in their last five games. These two teams met on Dec 28th and the O/U number was 225. They combined to score 248. Why have the oddsmakers established a much lower number for this game after that game was so high scoring? That has us on Under here. | |||||||
01-07-25 | Hawks v. Jazz OVER 235.5 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games. Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those games the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games. While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th. We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th. Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over. | |||||||
01-06-25 | Blazers +6.5 v. Pistons | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +6.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a huge home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday night and could let down here against the 12-win Trailblazers. The Pistons are .500 at home this season with an 8-8 SU record and a negative average scoring differential of minus -3.3ppg. Prior to the 14-point win against the Wolves, the Pistons have just two home wins by more than 9-points. In fact, the Pistons have a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite with a negative differential of minus -0.2ppg. Portland is a 4-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -10.53ppg. Portland is coming off a big win themselves over the Bucks in Milwaukee. The Blazers are 3-2 SU in their last five games with the wins coming against the Bucks, Mavs and Jazz. Portland has won 8 of the last nine meetings with Detroit and the lone loss came by 6-points in OT. We like the young Blazers to hang around in this one. | |||||||
01-05-25 | Jazz +6.5 v. Magic | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Utah Jazz +6.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - I typically don’t like backing bad teams but will make an exception here with the Jazz plus the points. Orlando is really banged up right now with 4 of their best players Suggs, Banchero, and both Wagner out with injuries. I’m not concerned about the Jazz playing last night against the Heat as 8 players saw 20+ minutes and no starters played more than 31 minutes. In their last 8 games the Jazz have played better with a 3-5 SU record with two of those losses coming by 2 and 3-points. Orlando has a fantastic home record of 13-4 SU, but again they are essentially missing 4-starters here and their average Margin of Victory at home of +6.9 is barely higher than this pointspread. Orlando has some bad offensive statistics including 24th in overall FG%, 30th in 3PT% and 15th in offensive rebounds. Even with Utah’s bad defensive numbers that makes it tough for a depleted Magic team to cover this number. | |||||||
01-04-25 | Blazers +12 v. Bucks | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +12 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are literally a yo-yo this season, up one night and looking like a contender, then down the next and getting beat by the 13-win Nets. Milwaukee is 11-6 SU at home this season, but they have an average Margin of Victory of just +3.9ppg. Portland is a horrendous 3-14 SU on the road this season, yet their average scoring differential is less than this spread at -11.3ppg. In the Bucks last home games none have come by more than 12 points. As a home favorite of -8 or more points at home the Bucks are 1-4 ATS their last five. Portland is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Lakers but played well in the 8-point loss. The Blazers are 2-2 SU in their last four games with the wins coming against the Mavs and Jazz. Portland is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit road underdog in their last nine games. Some might argue that the Bucks off a loss is the play but that hasn’t been the case this season as Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS in that situation. In fact, going back to the start of last season, the Bucks have the second worst spread record coming off a loss of 21-28-1 ATS with a scoring margin of +2.0ppg. This is a case where we will support a bad Blazers team plus the points. | |||||||
01-03-25 | Celtics v. Rockets +3 | Top | 109-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets +3 vs Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - As I’m watching the Celtics on Thursday night it is very evident, they are spending a ton of energy in their game at Minnesota. While Boston was grinding away last night, the Rockets were at home resting for this game. This game will have more meaning for Rockets head coach Udoka who was fired by the Celtics a few years back. Houston is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS at home this season with the 6th best average scoring differential of +9.5ppg. The Rockets have been home underdogs just twice this season and they won/covered both. The Celtics are 11-3 SU on the road this season with the best average +/- in the NBA but they have a couple key injuries to Porzingis and Brown which hurts their overall depth. The Rockets key advantage will be on the offensive glass where they rank 1st in the NBA, compared to Boston who is 11th. The Rockets rate slightly better on the D-glass too. Houston is coming off a big home win over the Mavericks and will relish this underdog role at home. Grab the points with the Rockets. | |||||||
01-02-25 | 76ers v. Warriors -125 | Top | 105-139 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors -125 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 10 PM ET - This is a horrible scheduling situation for the 76ers who are off a game last night against the Kings. They are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 5th in nine days. All five of these games have been played on the road which makes it that much tougher. Meanwhile, the Warriors are off an embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers 96-113 on Monday. Golden State is well rested here and should be eager to atone for their last home game. When playing without rest the 76ers are 8-9 ATS their last 17, Golden State is 10-7 ATS their last 17 when playing with a rest advantage. Philadelphia is one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 44.7% (25th) and make the least amount of field goals per game at 38.2. They shoot just 33.8% from beyond the Arc which ranks 28th. They will have a hard time scoring against this Warriors D that is 4th in opponents FG%, 6th in 3PT% D and give up the 9th lowest points per game in the NBA. Golden State doesn’t have great offensive numbers themselves at 44.3% shooting and 35.9% 3PT% but Philly has one of the worst FG% defenses overall and rank 15th in Defensive Efficiency. The Warriors have struggled of late which has forced the oddsmakers to set this line lower than it should be. This is a perfect “buy low” spot on the Warriors and, in fact, the line has moved so low here ATS that the money line at -125 is now a top choice option here as of overnight hours heading into Thursday. | |||||||
12-31-24 | Grizzlies v. Suns UNDER 236 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Memphis wants to play fast and is the highest possession team in the NBA. Phoenix on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking 26th in pace of play. The current problem for the Grizzlies is they have 9 players on their injured list, including Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, three of their top six scorers. The lack of depth showed in the Grizzlies last game against the Thunder as they managed just 106 points on 38% shooting. The Suns have had their own scoring issues of late with four straight games of 110 or less points. The lack of scoring has led to 4 straight Unders for the Suns and 6 of the last seven. Not to mention, the Suns will have a tough time here against a Memphis defense that allows the 4th fewest points per possession in the NBA. In three meetings last season these two teams produced 236, 225 and 199 total points. We like a slower paced and lower scoring game here. | |||||||
12-30-24 | 76ers -5 v. Blazers | Top | 125-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5 at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - It’s hard to imagine if the NBA playoffs where to start today, the 76ers would be out. This team was one of the odds-on favorites to come out of the East this season but early season injuries have tempered their success. The biggest factor has been the absence of Joel Embiid who has played in just 10 games this season. The Sixers needed to adjust to him back in the lineup and lost 4 games in a row. Since then, the 76ers have gone 5-1 SU with 4 straight wins. In this current 4 game winning streak with Embiid in the lineup they have a very impressive road win at Boston. Portland on the other hand was projected to struggle again this season after winning just 21 games a season ago. The Blazers are 11-20 SU on the season with the 3rd worst scoring differential at minus -8.9ppg. Even with a winning home record they have a negative average point differential of -6.1ppg. Philadelphia has taken care of lesser opponents this season on the road with a 5-2 SU record as a road favorite, winning by an average of +4.4ppg. Again, the majority of those games come without either Embiid, Maxey or George on the floor all at the same time. Portland has been a respectable home dog this season but still has a negative differential of minus -3.9ppg. We feel Philly is turning the corner and in a situation where they can’t take wins for granted. Going back to the start of last season the 76ers are 16-10 ATS laying points on the road and they win those games by an average of +6.8ppg. Lay it here with Philadelphia. | |||||||
12-29-24 | Grizzlies v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | Top | 106-130 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 225.8 total points per game. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will only be essentially +6-points more than average. We feel it’s going to be much higher than that for a few specific reasons, mainly because of the pace of play. Memphis is the fastest paced team in the league at 105.2 possessions per game. The Thunder at 8th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. The Grizzlies average the 3rd most fastbreak points per game, the Thunder rank 9th. Memphis is the highest scoring team in the NBA in terms of points in the paint, the Thunder are 12th. The Grizz are the 5th most efficient offense, the Thunder are 8th. Granted, both are exceptional defensively, but pace and great shooting will counter the great defenses. These two teams attempt the 10th and 12th most 3-pointers per game and rank 2nd and 3rd in FG attempts. Based on comparable opponents, the betting markets and tempo we expect a higher scoring game Sunday. *Yes, we know Ja Morant is not playing tonight.* | |||||||
12-28-24 | Pistons +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-134 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on Detroit Pistons +5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - If you are not paying attention to the NBA you probably haven’t noticed the improvement of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has as many wins today (14) as they did the entire season a year ago. They are slightly below average defensively in Efficiency ratings (16th) allowing 1.142-points per possession. On the season they rank 22nd in OEFF but in their last five games they are scoring 1.123-points per possession which is also around league average. Denver has slipped defensively this season and will be without their best defender in this game with Aaron Gordon out. The Nuggets played a big game last night against the Cavaliers making this the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be the Nugs 4th game in six days, 5th in seven. The Pistons have won 3 straight road games at Phoenix, Lakers and Kings and are also 4-1 their last five away from home. Denver has an average +/- at home of just +2.6ppg which is significantly lower than their season average at home a year ago of +8.1ppg. Another sign of the Pistons improvement is their road scoring differential of -0.1ppg, 12th best in the NBA. Grab the points with Detroit here. | |||||||
12-27-24 | Warriors v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - Looking at the Clippers recent stretch of games we see they were recently a +3-point home dog to Houston, Minnesota and Denver. In the games against the Rockets and Wolves the Clippers were without key pieces as Powell and Harden each missed a game. The Clippers lost both. Prior to those two games, with Powell/Harden they beat the Nuggets at home 126-122. The reason we bring that up is this: The Warriors aren’t as good as those three teams, yet are favored on the road in Los Angeles? Golden State is coming off an emotional Christmas Day loss to the Lakers and slipped to 1-5 SU in their last six games. For the season the Clippers rank 11th in Offensive Efficiency, the Warriors rank 13th. Defensively, the Clippers hold the edge with the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating compared to the Warriors 8th ranking. When we look exclusively at the last 10 games of each team we see the Clippers have the better overall Net Rating of +1.5 compared to the Warriors NR of -6.7. Golden State lives and dies by the 3-pointer (12th in 3PT%), but the Clippers defend the arc as well as anyone in the league allowing 34.3% (4th). The Clippers have won 5 straight in the rivalry including two games this season. We expect them to make it 3 in a row on Friday. | |||||||
12-26-24 | Bulls +6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 133-141 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This will be the third meeting this season between these two teams with the Bulls winning both clashes thus far. Some bettors might want to back the Hawks with revenge but not us. This is a game where the Hawks have a hard time matching up against the Bulls. Chicago’s two wins against Atlanta have come by 12 and 14-points. Chicago has won 3 straight in the series and 5 of the last six. If we look at each teams last five games we find the Bulls have a Net Rating of -4.5 compared to the Hawks NR of -1.5. Chicago has won 3 straight on the road and have a Net scoring differential of -0.5ppg when away from home which ranks 14th in the NBA. Atlanta is 8-7 SU at home this season with the 19th worst average scoring margin of -2.6ppg. As a home favorite the Hawks are 2-7 ATS with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Neither team is good defensively and the Bulls shoot it better at 46.8% overall (10th) and 37% (9th) from deep compared to the Hawks who shoot 46.3% (15th) and 35% (21st). Grab the points and the Bulls. | |||||||
12-25-24 | Lakers +4 v. Warriors | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on LA Lakers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are always a tricky team to bet on because you never know if LeBron/AD is going to play or not. LeBron was away from the team recently for unknown reasons, other than the fallout from his Diddy party comments on social media. With the TV lights on LBJ will be in the lineup tonight against the Warriors. Both teams are off losses as the Lakers lost to the Pistons at home, the Warriors lost to the Pacers. Golden State and Los Angeles both have really good results off a loss so that is basically a wash. If we look at the full season stats we see the Warriors have a very slight edge in Offensive Efficiency, and a significant advantage in Defensive Efficiency. If we look at each team's last five games though we see the opposite with the OEFF numbers being about even, but the Lakers defense over the last five games has been outstanding and the Warriors has not. Golden State currently ranks 26th in DEFF over the last 5 games allowing 1.183PPP, the Lakers D has allowed 1.037PPP in that same stretch of games. We can’t trust a Warriors defense that gave up 143+ points in two consecutive games in the past two weeks. As an NBA fan, enjoy what might be the last meaningful game between two future Hall of Famers in LeBron and Steph Curry. | |||||||
12-23-24 | Suns +6 v. Nuggets | Top | 90-117 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +6 at Denver Nuggets – 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Suns here who last played on Thursday night at home against the Pistons. Phoenix lost that game and the game previous to Indiana, both at home. Kevin Durant certainly did everything in his power to carry this Suns team with 37pts, 10rebs and 6ass against the Pacers and 43pts, 5rebs and 6ass against the Pistons. Phoenix is a respectable 5-7 SU on the road this season. Denver is coming off a game Sunday at New Orleans and played two other road games at the Kings and Blazers prior to that game. Denver has been very good off a loss since the start of last season with a 13-4 SU record and an average MOV of +6.5ppg. Phoenix though is 20-6 SU since the start of last year with an average+/- of +7.7ppg. Phoenix has certainly underachieved this season, but the same can be said about the Nuggets. Denver has a Net rating of +2.4 while the Suns are -0.9. The Suns beat this Nuggets team two out of three meetings last season with both wins coming in Denver. KD will keep the Suns in that entire game and cover the spread in the process. | |||||||
12-20-24 | Thunder v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +1.5 vs OKC Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The NBA schedule makers didn’t do the Thunder any favors with this second game in two nights for the Thunder after playing in Vegas in the Cup Finals against the Bucks. Miami is 4-1 SU their last five games with their most recent being a 1-point loss in Detroit. Prior to that the Heat won 4 straight at home with quality wins against the Raptors, Cavs, Suns and Lakers. In fact, the Heat are 7-1 SU their last seven home games and the lone loss was by 3-points to the red-hot Bucks. If we take a closer look at Miami and their last 5 games, we see they have the second-best Net rating in that stretch of games. The team ahead of them in that stat category is the OKC Thunder but again this is a tough spot for them coming off a game against Orlando last night. Miami has a profitable spread record when playing with a rest advantage of 13-10 ATS dating back to last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +5.4ppg. Miami is also 7-3 ATS this season when coming off a loss. It’s tough to bet against OKC but we’ll make an exception tonight and take Miami. | |||||||
12-19-24 | Jazz v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 126-119 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA AGAIN this season and the Pistons have improved significantly after their 14 wins season a year ago. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 16 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. Detroit is slightly below average in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating despite facing a difficult schedule. The Pistons are coming off a confidence building win against the Heat at home in their most recent game and we are betting that momentum will carry over here against a bad Jazz team. | |||||||
12-17-24 | Bucks v. Thunder -5 | Top | 97-81 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Cup Finals 8:30 PM ET - If you have paid attention to our preseason suggestions, we like the Thunder to win it all this season. They had one of the best rosters in the league, one of the 5 very best players, and then went out and added a few key pieces. The Bucks got off to a slow start but are playing extremely well right now and look like a contender in the East. OKC has the best average scoring margin in the NBA at +12.1PPG, +11.8PPG on the road. Milwaukee is +1.4PPG overall on the season, -2.2PPG on the road. We mention the road differentials as this is a neutral site game in Las Vegas but do expect more Thunder fans in attendance. OKC is 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season. The Bucks on the other hand rank 14th in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. The Bucks have gone 12-3 SU their last fifteen games, but a closer look shows only 4 of those wins came against teams with a current winning record. OKC on the other hand has gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with wins over teams such as the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Warriors and Kings. The Bucks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA defending point guards and Alexander for the Thunder should have a big night. OKC on the other hand allows the fewest point to power forwards in the NBA and will make Giannis work for every point. Bucks 0-6 SU against top 5 rated teams this season. Lay the points with the Thunder. | |||||||
12-16-24 | Jazz v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 107-144 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 10:30 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of betting on big favorites in the NBA but will make an exception tonight with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. The Clippers have lost three straight games, but the losses have come against Minnesota, Houston and Denver, three of the better teams in the West. They are about to embark on a very tough road trip with games at Dallas twice and then Memphis which makes winning this game more important than usual. Prior to the 3-game losing streak this Clipper team hosted the Blazers who grade similarly to this Jazz team and beat them by 22-points as a -8.5-point favorite. The 5-win Jazz are a mess right now having lost 7 of their last eight games and are just 3-9 SU away from home this season. Utah has an average loss margin of -8.8ppg on the road this season which is 28th most in the NBA. The big separator for these teams is their defenses. The Clippers rank 7th in Defensive efficiency allowing just t1.097-points per possession. The Jazz on the other hand is allowing 1.199PPP which is second most in the league. The Clippers have won 3 of the last four meetings with the Jazz by 11 or more points and our model is projecting a +14 win tonight. Lay the points with the LA Clippers. | |||||||
12-15-24 | Wolves -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 106-92 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record. | |||||||
12-12-24 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 231.5 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10PM ET - We expect the Kings to put up points in this one and essentially force the Pelicans to score to keep up. Sacramento is 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season at 1.115-points per possession. They have been better of late at 1.203PPP in their last five games. The Kings are coming off a pair of 140+ scoring games against the Jazz and Spurs who both rate similarly to this Pels team defensively. Sacto is the 7th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.6% and should get plenty of easy looks against this Pelicans defense that allows 48.6% shooting by opponents which ranks 28th. New Orleans is 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.186PPP. They have given up 121+ points in 3 of their last four games and 118+ in 8 of their last ten overall. The Pels also rank 23rd in 2PT% against and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. On the rare occasion the Kings do miss they should get second chance opportunities with their 12th best rebound rate in the league. We are going to need points from the Pelicans also and we expect them to get 113+. The Kings are 14th in DEFF and can be exploited defensively from beyond the arc. Sacramento allows foes to hit 37.7% from Deep which ranks 27th in the NBA. New Orleans has some horrible offensive numbers, but they’ve also had significant injury issues to their leading scorers all season long. In their 3 most recent games they put up 126 against the Suns and 116 versus the Spurs and 109 against the Thunder who have the best D in the NBA. The numbers suggest that these two teams combine for 235+ in this one. | |||||||
12-11-24 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 222.5 | Top | 90-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
ASA NBA Play on UNDER 222.5 Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, 9:30PM ET - The average NBA game finishes with 226.2 total points. This line is slightly lower than that despite the fact we have two elite defenses and two average offenses. Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing just 1.056 points per possession. They rank 2nd in FG% against at 43.3% and rank 5th in 3PT% allowed at 34.1%. The Warriors are 5th in DEFF allowing 1.083PPP, hold opponents to 43.8% shooting (3rd) and limit foes 3PT% at 33.4% (3rd). Offensively the Warriors are 15th in Offensive Efficiency rating scoring 1.130-points per possession, the Rockets are 18th in OEFF at 1.125PPP. These two teams are top 11 in pace of play on the season, but in their 5 most recent games both teams have slowed their tempo considerably with the Warriors ranking 15th in pace, the Rockets are 24th. Both teams rely on their transition offense, but both excel in limiting fastbreak scoring, ranking 2nd and 3rd in transition points allowed. Both teams are trending down in field goal attempts in their last five games so with that trend continuing here we can’t see these two teams getting to 223 total points. Unless both shoot well above their season standards which is unlikely given the defense. | |||||||
12-10-24 | Magic v. Bucks -7 | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points. | |||||||
12-08-24 | Pelicans v. Spurs OVER 225 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on OVER 225 New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET - These two teams have one common denominator and that's that both defenses aren’t good. The Spurs allow opponents to hit 46.8% of their field goal attempts (19th) and give up 1.145-points per possession (18th). In their most recent 5 games the Spurs defense has been even worse, allowing 1.253PPP which is 2nd most in the NBA. For the season the Pelicans defense has been equally as bad as the Spurs, if not worse. New Orleans has the worst FG% defense in the league allowing 48.7% while giving up 1.186-points per possession. In their most recent 5 games the Pels are allowing an average of 121PPG. The Pelicans have below average offensive numbers but have more injured starter minutes lost than any other team in the NBA. They put up 126 against the Suns two games ago with 4/5 starters back in the lineup. Last night they scored 109 against a very good OKC defense. San Antonio is near league average or slightly below in most offensive categories. For this game to get to 226 we need ‘average’ from both teams as the league average of points scored in an NBA game is 226. With two below average defenses these teams should get to this number rather easily. | |||||||
12-07-24 | Thunder v. Pelicans +8.5 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming. | |||||||
12-06-24 | Wolves +1 v. Warriors | Top | 107-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota. | |||||||
12-05-24 | Thunder v. Raptors +9.5 | Top | 129-92 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +9.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - This feisty Raptors team is flying under the radar right now and is a competitive out every night. Toronto is 15-7 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of just -0.1ppg. In their last five games the Raptors are 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th Defensively. They have an average +/- of +5.6ppg in their last five outings. Toronto has won their last four home games against quality competition including the Pacers twice, the Heat and the Timberwolves. OKC is one of the top three teams in the league with Cleveland and Boston and currently sit 16-5 SU on the season. As a road favorite, they are 5-4 ATS with an average +/- of +8.6ppg. In their last five road games the Thunder have 2 losses and only one win by more than this point spread. OKC is an average shooting team at 46.2% and relies heavily on volume shooting (3rd in FGA’s). Toronto ranks 7th in fast break efficiency defense and should limit the Thunders transition opportunities. This is a big number and we like the home dog plus the point. | |||||||
12-04-24 | Hawks +4 v. Bucks | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - First off, scheduling favors the Hawks in this Eastern Conference showdown as the Bucks played a big game in Detroit last night while the Hawks are rested. Milwaukee beat the Pistons in Detroit to clinch a spot in the Cup Playoffs by winning their pod. The Bucks are 7-10-1 ATS their last eighteen games when playing without rest with an average +/- of +3.2ppg which doesn’t get a cover here. On the flip side, the Hawks are a profitable 12-8 ATS their last twenty when playing with a rest advantage and have an average +/- of +4.0ppg. Milwaukee is playing well right now with 7 straight wins, but the Hawks have reeled of 4 straight of their own, with a pair of those wins coming against the Cavaliers. Looking at each team’s last 5 games we find the Bucks have the 5th best eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) in the NBA at +10.4, but the Hawks are 8th at +6.3. How much will Giannis play in the second night of a B2B? Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive guards in the league and will make Lillard work for every point tonight. Jalen Johnson is quietly putting together All-Star type numbers and returns home to Wisconsin and could have a big game. The 4-points is too attractive to pass up. | |||||||
12-03-24 | Magic v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on: NY Knicks -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - This game has NBA Emirates Cup implications as the Knicks need to win to get in, the Magic can win or lose by less than 30-points to make it in. Clearly it means more for New York. The Knicks have been at home and are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans 118-85. After a slow start, the Knicks are starting to figure out their new rotations with KAT and Bridges. The Magic have been a huge surprise this season and have done it mainly without their best player in Banchero who has missed several weeks with an injury. Orlando is very good defensively but struggles on the offensive end of the court. Even though they have a better overall record at 15-7 SU compared to NY’s 12-8 SU record, the Knicks have the better eDIFF of +6.6 vs. +5.9. The Magic are 6-7 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -0.9ppg. New York is 6-2 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +14.1ppg. We like New York big in this one. | |||||||
12-02-24 | Lakers v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 80-109 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on OVER 219 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 4th game in 6 days. Minnesota has been at home and should be rested with their last game being played on Nov 29th. This O/U opened 225.5 and has moved down significantly, which means we will step in and grab the value with an Over wager. Minnesota recently played the Kings at home and that game finished with 219 total points. The Kings are better defensively than the Lakers but worse offensively and the two teams play at the same pace. The Wolves are coming off a very low scoring game against the Clippers who are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and play slow. We expect the Wolves to push the pace here against the Lakers coming off a game last night. L.A. is 7th in offensive efficiency this season at 1.162-points per possession. Minnesota is 17th in OEFF or near league average. Minnesota has gone from being the best defense in the NBA a year ago to ranking 10th in DEFF currently this season. The Lakers are near the bottom of the league in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.173PPP. The Lakers are 12-5-1 to the Over when playing without rest, the Wolves tend to play Over against other Western Conference teams. NBA games are averaging nearly 226ppg so we just need this game to be average for a winning ticket. | |||||||
12-01-24 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 122-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season (hired Jeff Van Gundy as an assistant coach) as they allow the 4th fewest points per possession in the league. L.A. has held 6 of their last seven opponents to less than 100 points, which is unheard of in today’s NBA. Denver’s defense hasn’t been as good this season and recently gave up 145 to the Knicks which caused a meltdown with head coach Malone who publicly criticized his team’s effort. The Nuggets responded in their next game by holding the Jazz to 103 points. These two teams met earlier this season and produced 213 total points. They have not scored more than this O/U number in 5 straight meetings and 8 of their last nine. Denver hasn’t played since Wednesday and with 2-4 days rest dating back to last season they are 19-7 Under with those games staying below the number by an average of 8ppg. When these two teams play a conference opponent the Under is 102-57-2 since the start of last season. Bet Under! | |||||||
11-27-24 | Hawks v. Cavs -10 | Top | 135-124 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -10 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 7:10 PM ET - The Cavs are 17-1 and currently 10-0 SU at home on the season. The Cavs are winning at home by an average of +14.7ppg this season and only 2 of those 10 home wins have come by less than 10-points. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and are 3-6 SU away this season with a negative average point differential of minus -6.9ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Hawks have the worst road spread record in the NBA at 18-32 ATS with an average +/- of minus 6.1ppg. The Cavs beat the Hawks 3 of four games last season with the lone loss being a meaningless game in March. Cleveland won the 3 games by an average of 17.3ppg. The Cavs last four home games have been decided by +14, +28, +14 and +18. The Hawks last two road games have been losses to the Bulls and Warriors by -14 and -23. We like Cleveland to send a message to the Hawks tonight in the first game of the back-to-back series as these team meet again on Friday. | |||||||
11-26-24 | Rockets v. Wolves -3 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This is a Cup game and will have more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Rockets are 2-0 in Cup play, the T’Wolves are 1-1 and behind Houston in pool play. Minnesota has underachieved this season and stands 8-8 SU as they continue to adjust to a new lineup without Karl Anthony Towns. I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Julius Randall long-term for the Wolves, but we’ll have to wait and see. Regardless, we like Minnesota big here at home against a Houston team that has faced a very weak schedule to get to 12-6 SU. Again, despite a schedule disparity, the Rockets with a winning record have a +8.6 eDIFF differential, compared to Minnesota who is +2.1 in eDIFF, yet are .500. Houston is starting to see some chinks in their armor as Jalen Green’s shooting is regressing after a hot start to the season. Green takes the most shots for the Rockets, but he makes just 38.2% of his field goal attempts. That coincided with the Rockets Offensive Efficiency ratings dropping from 1.128 to 1.106PPP in their last five games. Minnesota is 10th in OEFF on the season with the 4th best EFG% numbers in the NBA. Minnesota is coming off a close loss in Boston which was one of their better overall games of the season and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Minnesota is 5-2 SU at home this season and 38-18 SU dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +7.4ppg. The Wolves beat this Rockets team 3 times last season with all three margins by more than tonight’s spread. Lay it with Minnesota. | |||||||
11-26-24 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226ppg. This O/U is set slightly lower than that and we are betting this won’t be anything close to average. Milwaukee and Miami are perceived as defensive teams, based on past editions, but that isn’t the case anymore. Miami ranks 12th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.124-points per possession, after ranking 4th last season. Milwaukee was one of the best teams defensively in the NBA just a few years ago and now rank 15th in DEFF. The Bucks are the 13th fastest paced team in the league, the Heat are 21st. Milwaukee is 15th in Offensive Efficiency, the Heat are 17th in OEFF. Milwaukee has the 5th best Effective Field Goal percentage in the NBA at 55.9%, the Heat are 20th at 52.5%. Miami has gone Over in 4 of their last five games, the Bucks are on a 4-2 Over run. This has been a very good rivalry in the East historically and 8 of the last ten meetings have gone Over the number. In the last ten games, at least one of the two teams has scored 119+ points. Both teams get into the high Teens in this one which goes Over the number rather easily. | |||||||
11-23-24 | Pistons +9.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog. | |||||||
11-22-24 | Nets +6 v. 76ers | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points. | |||||||
11-21-24 | Magic v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg. | |||||||
11-20-24 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 106-122 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls. | |||||||
11-19-24 | Jazz v. Lakers OVER 232.5 | Top | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on OVER 232.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers – 10:30 PM ET - Apparently, the NBA In-Season Tournament means a lot to the Lakers who won it last year and decided to hang a banner in their rafters. The game should have added motivation for this Jazz team that doesn’t have any other high-profile players other than Markkanen and an additional paycheck would go a long way for these younger players. Honestly, that is maybe an added bonus but doesn’t really impact our handicapping process for this game. These two teams should put up a ton of points tonight. Utah is the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA at 99.6 possessions per game. The Lakers are only a few spots below them in the rankings at 99.1 possessions per game. Neither team defends well either. The Jazz allow the most points per possession per game at 1.192, the Lakers rank 25th in DEFF allowing 1.169PPP. Los Angeles is the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA, the Jazz though rank 27th. In the three meetings between these two teams last season, one team scored 130+ and the total points scored were 260, 257 and 230. Going back even further one of the two teams involved in this clash has scored 127 or more points in seven straight. Both teams are coming off of lower scoring games but that changes tonight as this one gets to the 240’s. | |||||||
11-18-24 | Rockets v. Bucks -3 | Top | 100-101 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA NBA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - At some point the Bucks are going to pop and play like the team that was projected to win 50+ games. This is a spot they could certainly ‘get right’ with a home win over a solid Western Conference team in the Rockets. Houston is playing the second night of a back-to-back after defeating Chicago by 36-points yesterday. This will also be the Rockets’ 3rd game in four days and 4th in six which is tough to overcome. Milwaukee meanwhile is off an upset loss in Charlotte on Saturday after a missed call late in the game cost them the ‘W’. Consider this, the Bucks were favored by 2-points earlier this month at home against the Cavaliers who might be the best team in the NBA and are now laying nearly that same number against the Rockets. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Bucks who are 69-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.2ppg since 2022. In that same time frame the Rockets are 26-62 SU on the road with a negative point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Yes, this Houston team is improved and playing well but Giannis and the Bucks should get this home win by 6+ points. | |||||||
11-16-24 | Jazz v. Kings OVER 229 | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 229 Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - Even though this line has been bet up from the opener, it still hasn’t been adjusted enough. These two teams met in the first week of the season and the O/U on that game was 235. They combined for 209 total points in large part of a horrible shooting performance by the Jazz. Last year in 3 meetings these two teams produced total points of 233, 229 and 244. Utah is 29th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.185-points per possession. They have the 25th ranked FG% defense allowing opponents to make just under 485 of their attempts. Sacramento is the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% and should get plenty of uncontested attempts and scores against this Jazz defense. Utah wants to play fast with the 10th rated pace at 100 possessions per game. The Kings prefer that tempt with the 12th most possessions per game in the league. The Kings have put up 126 or more points in 3 of their last four games. Utah has scored and allowed 110+ points in three straight games. The Jazz will get to 110+ and the Kings are scoring more than 120. Over is the call here. | |||||||
11-15-24 | Wizards +9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 117-129 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points. | |||||||
11-13-24 | Pistons +6 v. Bucks | Top | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one. | |||||||
11-12-24 | Hawks +15.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight. | |||||||
11-08-24 | Bucks v. Knicks -7 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. | |||||||
11-07-24 | Blazers +4 v. Spurs | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers. | |||||||
11-06-24 | Heat v. Suns -5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns. | |||||||
11-02-24 | Heat v. Wizards +9.5 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ASA play on Washington Wizards +9.5 vs Miami Heat, 9:40 PM ET - The Wizards have gotten off to a 2-2 start with the two losses coming against the Celtics and Cavaliers who are currently the two best teams in the East. Washington’s two wins have come against the Atlanta Hawks who we grade slightly lower than this Heat team. Miami is also 2-2 SU with wins against the Pistons and Hornets, losses to the Knicks and Magic. The Wiz rate slightly lower than the Heat in Net Rating at -4.6 compared to -3.1. Miami was 8-6-2 ATS as a road chalk last season but their average +/- in those games was just +4.3PPG which clearly isn’t enough to cover this spread. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and Miami is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 52.1% which is 21st in the NBA. We are not sold Miami is invested yet in this season. Take the Dog here. | |||||||
11-01-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves -4 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:40 PM ET - We won’t buy into the revenge angle for the Nuggets here who the Wolves eliminated from the playoffs last season. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling situation here, coming off a home loss to the Mavs and having been at home since October 25th. Minnesota was 33-16 SU at home last season with an average plus/minus of +7.3PPG. Denver is playing their 3rd straight road game and have struggled in their first two at Toronto and Brooklyn who are lower tiered teams in the NBA. The Nuggets are currently 21st in defensive net rating and 17th in ONR. Those are extremely low considering their strength of schedule. Minnesota is 13th in ONR, 11th in DNR and have faced a much better schedule which included the Mavs, Kings and Lakers. Denver is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 49.4% which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Wolves are 6th in EFG% at 56.5%. This is a good spot to back the Wolves coming off a home loss. Minnesota was 24-8 SU off a loss last year and won those games by an average of +9.8PPG. | |||||||
11-01-24 | Lakers v. Raptors OVER 230.5 | Top | 131-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ASA play on OVER 230.5 LA Lakers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These are currently two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA with the Lakers allowing 1.178-points per possession (25th) while the Raptors allow 1.240PPP and rank last in the NBA. Both teams prefer to play fast, ranking 10th and 11th in pace of play. Knowing this game will be up-tempo with two bad defenses is enough for us to bet this Over at a marginal total that is barely higher than league average. The Lakers are 10th in Offensive Efficiency and the Raptors are 15th. Toronto has allowed 127 and 138 points in their last two games to Denver and Charlotte. The Lakers gave up 134 to the Cavs last time out and 127 to the Kings two games ago. This game should easily get into the 240’s. Bet the Over. | |||||||
10-30-24 | Celtics -6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 132-135 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - Don’t get sucked into betting the playoff revenge angle here with the Pacers who the Celtics eliminated last year in the conference finals. Boston looks better than ever and get key contributor Sam Hauser back in the lineup tonight which provides more space with another perimeter shooter for the Celtics. Boston has already beaten two Eastern Conference contenders, the Bucks and Knicks, both by double-digits. Indiana struggled to beat the Pistons, then lost three straight to teams that rate below Boston. Boston was 53-13 SU against the East last season with an average +/- of +9.9PPG. They also won their road games by an average of +6.8PPG. Boston was one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA last year, Indiana was one of the worst. The Celtics were one of the best offensive efficiency teams in the league last year as were the Pacers. This season the C’s are still the best OEFF team and one of the best DEFF. The Pacers are again bad defensively and their OEFF numbers have dropped to 23rd in the league. We will lay it here with Boston. | |||||||
10-29-24 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 222.5 | Top | 120-114 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:40 PM ET - This is a rematch of a playoff series a year ago which the Mavs won in 5-games so expect a little more intensity than usual for a game this early in the season. The Mavericks are coming off a game last night and will have some tired legs tonight. Last season when the Timberwolves played with rest advantage the Unders cashed at a 74% rate with 6 Overs, 17 Unders and 1 push. Dallas had a slight Under trend when playing without rest at 54% last season. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league. Minnesota was the best overall defensive team in the league last season allowing 1.084PPP. Both teams defend the 3-point line well with the Wolves holding opponents to 29.5%, 5th best, while Dallas allows 32.7%, 8th best. It is a small sample size this season but both teams are playing below league average in terms of pace of play, which obviously makes this Under that much more attractive. 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has resulted in 223 or less points. We will be this one Under! | |||||||
10-28-24 | Pistons +9 v. Heat | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9 at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are expected to be much improved this season with some added veteran help in Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley to pair with a solid young rotation. Unfortunately for the Pistons they started the season with games against the Celtics, Cavs and Pacers to go 0-3. Detroit was very competitive in all three games though, losing by 6 to the Celts, 12 to the Cavs and 6 to Indiana. Miami was blown out in their home opener by the Magic, then won in Charlotte most recently by 8-points. The Heat can’t be trusted as a big home favorite with a 30-43-2 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2022 season. Last year the Heat won at home by just 1.5PPG, the 19th lowest number in the NBA. Detroit has a winning overall ATS record as a road dog the past two seasons at 22-20 versus the number. Detroit is better than their 0-3 SU record and have value at this number. | |||||||
10-27-24 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON OVER 228.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, 3:30 PM ET - Indiana will play their home opener today against the 76ers and we are betting on an Over. The Pacers were a strong Over team at home a year ago with a 30-19 record. They went Over the number by an average of +2.9ppg. Philadelphia had a slight lean towards the Over on the road last season at 24-20. The Pacers are coming off a poor offensive game against the Knicks, who are a top tier defensive team. Indiana was the second most efficient offensive team last season at 1.205-points per possession, behind only the Celtics. Philly was middle of the pack in OEFF at 1.162PPP while scoring 114.6ppg. The home team in this matchup is going to dictate the tempo and the Pacers want to play fast. Indiana was 2nd in pace of play last season at 102.16 possessions. Granted, the 76ers were slower paced a year ago but Philly tends to play at a slower pace with Embiid in the lineup, who is out here. Without a rim protector in the lineup for the Sixers, the Pacers should get plenty of easy opportunities in the paint. Indiana ranked 1st in the league a year ago in that stat category at 56.6ppg. Last year in three meetings between these two teams they produced total points of 256, 258 and 263. Easy Over call. | |||||||
10-26-24 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 127-131 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on Sacramento Kings +1.5 at L.A. Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Lakers have a pair of huge wins to start the season over the Timberwolves and Suns but are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles is playing the second night of a back-to-back and catch a Kings team coming off a home loss a few nights back. Sacramento played well in their opener and lost by 2-points to the Timberwolves. Sacramento has a new addition to their roster in DeMar DeRozen who scored 26-points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his Kings debut. This game means more to the Kings who are often looked at as the other California team behind the Lakers and Clippers. Sacramento has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 5 straight, 3 in a row on this court. These two teams were nearly identical last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, but we are expecting the Kings to be better this season with the addition of DeRozan. This line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5-point favorite and was quickly bet down to the current number. That would suggest that either LeBron or AD could be sitting for this game after playing last night. We like Sacramento here. | |||||||
10-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -3 | Top | 108-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets were a surprise team last season with a 41-41 record and just missed making the play in tournament. Expectations are much higher this season as their win total was set 12 wins higher than last year's number. They were just 8-point favorites at home against the Hornets and were upset after a horrendous shooting performance. The Rockets shot just 37% overall and 30% from Deep. Charlotte meanwhile hit 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc. Memphis is coming off a road win in Utah 126-124 as a -2.5-point favorite. One glaring aspect from that game was the rebound disparity as the Grizzlies were minus -13 boards in that game. Houston was 12th in Rebound Rate last season, Memphis was 25th. The other advantage the Rockets have is their transition defense that is one of the best in the league. Two years ago, with Morant the Grizzlies were very reliant on their transition offense which was 2nd in the NBA. The Rockets can nullify that advantage with their defense and if they shoot an average percentage will win this game by 8+ points. Houston won 3 of four meetings a year ago against this Memphis team with all three wins coming by 20, 13 and 7-points. Great line value here with Houston. | |||||||
10-23-24 | Pacers v. Pistons OVER 235 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 235 Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Looking back at last season’s meetings between these two teams we see the O/U’s set were 235.5, 247.5, 247.5 and 246. Three of the four games went Over the total with the four games averaging 243PPG. Neither team will play any defense here as the Pistons ranked 26th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.190-points per possession. Indiana wasn’t much better, ranking 24th in DEFF allowing 1.181PPP. Detroit averaged less than 1.000 points per possession a year ago but scored points with a higher volume of field goal attempts and a faster pace of play. Detroit was 8th in pace and preferred to play with tempo. That’s not a good recipe against the Pacers who were 2nd in pace, scored 123.3PPG with the second-best Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.211PPP. Detroit should be more efficient offensively with the offseason acquisitions of Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley. We like this game OVER the total. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Sean Higgs | $1,825 |
Kevin Young | $880 |
Kenny Walker | $817 |
Michael Alexander | $742 |
Joseph D'Amico | $618 |
Brody Vaughn | $541 |
Jack Jones | $529 |
Dave Price | $523 |
Dan Kaiser | $518 |
Juan Carlos Flores | $450 |