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#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.  The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it!

#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#105/106 ASA PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 have combined to play 10 games this season with 7 of them going Over the total.  Both offenses are the strengths of these teams right now.  SF’s defense has been subpar all season allowing 5.6 YPP (20th in the NFL) and just over 21 PPG.  If we subtract their games vs the Patriots (31st in scoring) and the Jets (24th in scoring) the Niners are allowing 25 PPG.  They’ve actually faced 3 offenses ranked outside the top 24 in scoring if we add in the Rams who put up 27 on this defense.  Seattle will be the best offense they’ve faced both YPG (7th) and PPG (11th).  The Seattle defense is in a similar situation.  They’ve allowed 22.8 PPG (17th) yet they’ve played a number of weak offenses.  Four of their five opponents rank 22nd or lower in scoring this season (Miami, New England, NYG, and Denver) yet they are still allowing almost 23 PPG.  Now they face a SF offense that ranks 2nd in YPG and YPP and 10th in scoring.  In their last 2 games alone, the Seattle defense has allowed 7.8 YPP vs Detroit and 6.0 YPP vs the NY Giants.  They are trending in the wrong direction right now.  The Seahawks offense had an off performance last week vs the Giants which could have been due to their short week (played on Monday night @ Detroit) and long travel situation.  Even with that performance, they still rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring, YPG, and YPP on offense.  It’s always smart to check the weather in Seattle as it can be sketchy however Thursday night looks great no precipitation and light winds.  Both offenses are off below average performances last week and we expect each to bounce back and plenty of scoring on Thursday night.  Take the Over.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#473/474 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 44 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - The oddsmakers were right on this opening number of 41, but money came in on the Over and drove this O/U to 44, above key numbers of 41 and 42. These two offenses are pedestrian and lack explosiveness with the Steelers ranking 21st in YPP at 4.9, the Cowboys are 18th at 5.4-yards per play. Dallas does rank 9th in yards per point scored at 13.6, but the Steelers offset that with their yards per point offense which ranks 25th. The Steelers defense is 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed 6th in YPP defense at 5.1, hold opponents to 3.7 rushing yards per attempt and give up just 13.2PPG. Dallas has offensive weapons, but they struggle to run the football, ranking last in the league at 75.2 rushing YPG on the season at 3.5-yards per attempt. Dallas has some poor defensive statistics this season, but they’ve also faced the Saints who lead the league in scoring at 31.8PPG and the Ravens who are 5th at 26.5PPG. This Steelers offense is scoring just 18.8PPG and relies heavily on the running game which is 3rd in attempts this season. There is potentially rain/wind in Pittsburgh Sunday night which will certainly help our cause and Under bet.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday).  They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR.  With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward.  They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season.  The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season.  The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that.  Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP).  Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson.  We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs.  We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG.

#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Three of the four Thursday night match ups this season have gone Under the Total and the average total points scored in those games was 37.5. We expect another grinder on Thursday in this key division battle. Four of the last five meetings between these two NFC South rivals have totaled 47 or fewer points and the average total points scored in those 5 games was 42.5. When playing inside the division, both of these teams tend to play lower scoring games as expected. The average total points scored since the start of last season when TB plays a division opponent was 33.5. The average total points scored since the start of last season when Atlanta plays a division opponent was 41. These teams have combined to play 25 division games since the start of the 2022 season and 16 of those games (64%) have failed to top 40 points. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season scoring just 18.8 PPG and they’ve scored 2 non-offensive TD’s this year so the offensive only scoring numbers are actually worse. They struggle to stay on the field with the 3rd down conversion rate of 26% which is among the worst in the league. TB’s offense has been better scoring wise (24 PPG) but they only average 5.4 YPP which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Bucs have had 2 higher scoring offensive outputs this season vs the Eagles and Commanders who are poor defenses ranking 30th and 31st in the NFL in YPP allowed. In their other 2 games vs Detroit & Denver they scored 27 total points. Atlanta’s defense is solid (7th in YPP allowed at 4.9) and they have allowed 26 or fewer points in every game this season (21 PPG allowed average). Low scoring game here.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a solid situational spot for the Cards at home.  They lost last weekend here vs Detroit and played very poorly on offense.  The Lions were a bit desperate as well coming off a home loss vs TB.  The prior week, Arizona destroyed the LA Rams at home 41-10 outgaining LA 7.9 YPP to just 4.7 YPP.  That’s the same Rams team that, while banged up, turned around and beat the 49ers last Sunday.  This will be Arizona’s 3rd straight home game prior to playing 3 of their next 4 on the road so an important game for them here.  Washington is making the long trip west on a short week after upsetting Cincinnati on Monday night 38-33.  The Commanders were outgained in the win 7.3 to 6.2 YPP and on the ground 6.2 YPC to 3.4 YPC.  Arizona’s offense should get back on track here facing a Washington defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in PPG allowed, and dead last in 3rd down conversion rate allowed.  This is Washington’s 3rd road game in the first 4 weeks and we look for this young team to struggle after a win and now on a short week.  The Cards have already faced 2 high level opponents (Buffalo & Detroit) yet their YPP margin is a solid +0.5.  Washington, on the other hand, has been outgained on the year with a YPP margin of -0.7 which is 8th worst in the NFL despite their 2-1 record.  This is a huge home game for Arizona and we’ll call for them to win this one by more than a FG.

#271 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

The Bengals are 0-3 but they’ve outgained every opponent on YPP basis and they sit at 7th in the NFL in YPP margin.  This is an absolute must win for the Bengals as they cannot afford to drop to 0-4.  In their only other road game this season Cincy lost 26-25 @ Kansas City but had more yardage and better YPP numbers than the host Chiefs in that one.  KC got a late pass interference call on 4th and long vs Cincinnati that set them up for the game winning FG.  Last week the Bengals lost 38-33 vs Washington but once again, they completely outplayed the Commanders with 435 to 356 yards along with outgaining them by +1.1 YPP.  They are back at full strength offensively with WR Higgins back and they should big success vs a Carolina defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down conversion percentage.  Carolina lost first 2 games (Saints & Chargers) by combined score of 73-13 and then made the switch last week to Andy Dalton at QB.  The Panthers looked much better and picked up their first win of the season.  However, we often see a team have a 1 game boost when switching QB’s with the team rallying.  They caught the Raiders in a rough spot as well after upsetting Baltimore on the road a week earlier despite getting drastically outplayed in the stats.  The entire problem for Carolina was not simply the QB situation.  They have won only 3 of their last 20 games and now facing a desperate team that many considered a Super Bowl contender prior to the season.  Cheap price here as well at -4.5.  If this game would have been played a few weeks ago it definitely would have been north of a TD and possibly double digits.  Bengals on Sunday.

ASA play on Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ NY Giants, 8:20 PM ET - We like the Cowboys to bounce back here off of two tough losses to the Saints and Ravens. New York meanwhile is off a win over the Browns as a big underdog. The Cowboys have owned this series with the Giants with a 13-1 SU record the last 14 meetings and an average +/- in those games of +16PPG. Dallas has covered the spread in six straight meetings versus New York. Last year in the two clashes the Cowboys won 40-0 and 49-17. They outgained the Giants 905/343 in total yards. Dallas was outplayed badly by the Saints two weeks ago, then caught a desperate 0-2 Ravens team last week that had to win. New York was thoroughly beaten by the Vikings in Week 1 then lost to the Commanders, and beat a bad Cleveland team last week. Despite playing much better competition, the Yards Per Play differential is near even for these two teams. The Cowboys have a negative YPP number of minus -0.7. The Giants are minus -0.5YPP. The Dallas D is soft in the middle, but the Giants have a below average rushing attack. New York’s pass defense will be hard pressed to stop the Cowboys and if this game turns into a shootout the G-men don’t have a shot at covering.

#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser.  Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags.  They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP.  The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases.  This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team.  The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league.  The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable.  Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve.  The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it.  Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost.  The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game.  They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter.  Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards.  This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number.

#475/476 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 46.5 Points - Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, when you make this wager, we recommend you wait until close to kickoff to bet it as the TV totals have been fluctuating up with public money close to the start of the game. The Chiefs have some injury concerns offensively with their top two running backs out, which prompted the signing of Kareem Hunt to the practice squad. KC will start Samaje Perine who was mainly used as a 3rd down back. The Chiefs are also lacking depth at the WR position with Brown on the IR. Yes, Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, but this will be a tough matchup for KC against a stout Falcons defense. The Falcons are allowing 4.8YPP (8th), 4.1-Yards Per Rush and the 8th fewest passing yards per game. On the other side of the football, Atlanta will need to stick to its bread and butter by using the run to open up the pass. Ball control will be paramount for the Falcons, in order to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands for as little as possible. Atlanta’s offense is averaging a modest 5.7-Yards Per Play through two games, and rank middle of the pack in most offensive categories. The Chiefs defense is better than their overall statistics. The Chiefs have faced two dynamic offenses in the Ravens and Bengals. KC is giving up 386YPG but are better in terms of Yards Per Play at 5.9YPP. The Falcons offense looked good last week against the Eagles after putting up just 10-points against the Steelers in week 1. Philly did not pressure QB Cousins and let him pick them apart late in the game. Kansas City was 3rd in sacks per game in 2023 and 3rd in sack percentage. The Chiefs are 9th in Yards Per Point allowed, the Falcons are 12th. KC is perceived as a high scoring team, but the reality is they were 14th in PPG last season overall, and put up 21.3PPG on the road. Atlanta is better offensively this season with Cousins, but this team averaged just 18.9PPG a year ago.

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points - Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Despite scoring only 16 points last Sunday, Detroit went up and down field on the Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Lions tallied 460 yards and crossed midfield 10 times!  They reached the red zone 7 times and only scored 1 TD.  Those yardage numbers attached to an average yards per point efficiency would have put Detroit north of 30 points in that game.  Because of last week’s struggles deep in Tampa territory, the Lions currently rank 28th in the league in red zone conversion rate after ranking 2nd in that stat a year ago.  We expect them to move the ball well again this week vs a poor Arizona defense but look for the Lions to take advantage and put plenty of points on the board Sunday.  Arizona’s offense looks very good early in the season scoring 28 and 41 points in their 2 games this season.  The Cards rank 5th in the NFL averaging over 6 YPP and they are averaging 43 yards per possession which is #1 in the NFL.  Arizona’s defense looked solid last week vs a Rams offense that is depleted beyond belief with their 2 top WR’s out along with most of their offensive line.  A week earlier, the Cards allowed Buffalo to score 34 points on 6.1 YPP.  We see similar results for the Lions in this one.  Last week’s Detroit total was set at the exact same number (currently 51.5) despite playing a TB team that has a better defense than Arizona but is not as explosive on offense.  Last week’s low scoring game sets this one up nicely with a total that is set too low.  Perfect scoring conditions indoors in Phoenix lead to a shootout on Sunday.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

ASA play on UNDER 39 New England Patriots at NY Jets – 8:20 pm ET -Neither team is very explosive in this match up with the Jets averaging just 5.1 yards per play (20th) while the Pats average 4.6YPP (25th). New York is average in pace of play at 1 play run every 29.4 seconds, the Patriots are the 26th slowest paced team at 32.2 seconds. Defensively both are near league average in terms of yards per play allowed with the Jets allowing 5.4YPP, New England gives up 5.1YPP. It’s obvious what these teams want to do offensively. The Patriots want to limit opponents’ possession with their running game and win tight games with their defense. New England rushes 37.5 times per game which is the 3rd highest rush attempt number in the league. Surprisingly, the Jets only rush it 21.5 times per game, but they effectively use short passes as part of their run package. New York is 23rd in yards per pass attempt at 6.4. New England with QB Brissett are averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 122.5 passing yards per game. NY understandably gave up points and yards in the opener against a very good San Francisco offense. Last week the Jets D looked better allowing 5.3YPP to the Titans and 17-points. The Titans offense rates similar to this Pats O which has managed 16 and 20-points in their first two games. New England’s offense was tied with Carolina for the lowest scoring team in the league a year ago at 13.9PPG. New York’s offense is still a work in progress and the defense hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but this is a great opportunity for them to shine on MNF. Last season these two teams produced total points of 20 and 25. They have combined for 39 or less points in 5 of the last six confrontations. New England has played Under in 12 of their last seventeen games overall, the Jets have hit the Under in 11 of their last seventeen.

ASA play on UNDER 46 Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 pm ET - The Falcons were projected to be a contending team in the NFC this season with a stout defense, a veteran QB in Cousins and a young stud running back in Robinson. They didn’t live up to the billing in week 1 but we expect a better showing here, especially defensively. Falcons QB Cousins (coming off a Achilles injury) was very immobile in the opener against the Steelers. He was 16/26 for 155 yards 1 TD/2 INT. The Dirty Birds put up 226 total yards at 4.7 yards per play and 10-points. Much like the Jets w/Rodgers, look for the Falcons to concentrate on the running game with Robinson and protect Cousins with a short passing scheme. Atlanta was good defensively in W1 allowing 4.2YPP, 270 total yards and just 3.3 yards per rush to the Steelers. Philadelphia beat the Packers in the season opener in a high scoring game which has driven this O/U number up. A big reason that the game ended with so many points was due to the unusual number of big plays that resulted in TD’s. There were two scores of over 67-yards and two of 32+. The Eagles allowed 7.4YPP to the Packers as a result of those big hitters. Philly ran it 38 times against the Packers and with wideout Brown expected to miss this game it should be much of the same against the Falcons. We like Under in this one.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 39 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Despite both teams getting wins last week, the defenses looked much better than the offenses.  New England scored just 16 points vs the Bengals on only 4.5 YPP.  The Pats stuck to the ground game as we expect they will again with 39 rushing attempts and just 24 pass attempts.  Starting QB Brissett is not a QB that strikes fear in opposing defenses and he passed for only 120 yards on 4.8 yards per attempt.  They were the only team in the NFL last week without a an offensive play that went more than 20 yards.  Now they face a very solid Seattle defense with new HC Macdonald who was the coordinator of the Ravens high end defense the last 2 seasons.  The Pats offense will struggle on Sunday.  Seattle’s offense put up 26 points last week but barely averaged 5.0 YPP.  Starting RB Walker accounted for more than one-third of Seattle’s entire offense last week and it looks like he won’t play on Sunday due to an oblique injury.  That’s a big loss for this offense that also prefers to run the ball (33 rush attempts / 25 pass attempts).  New England’s defense is high level.  They completely shut down Cincy’s offense and Joe Burrow (154 yards passing) last week giving up just 10 points on 224 total yards.  New England is 10-6 to the Under last 2 years at home with average total points scored just 36.  This should be an ugly offensive game and we don’t project either team to reach 20 points.  Take the Under

#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that.  Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball.  The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained.  Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards.  QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that.  That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL.  The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage.  They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team.  Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road.  They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP.  The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was.  Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG.  Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread.  Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL.  As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different.  At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks.  He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore.  Cowboys by double digits

ASA play on UNDER 49 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM ET - Miami has some questions on offense with their top two RB’s likely out (Mostert & Achane). On the other side of the football Miami could have problems pressuring Allen and the Bills with LB Bradley Chubb out and LB Jaelan Phillips less than 100%. Both defenses allowed less than 300 total yards last week against potentially explosive offenses of the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Bills new offensive philosophy is run heavy as we saw in week 1 as they attempted 23 passes and 33 runs in the game against the Cardinals. Last week’s game against the Cardinals was a misleading final as 21 of the combined 62 points came with under 9:00 minutes to play in the game. Arizona averaged 9.6 yards per point, an unusually low number based on league average. The Bills averaged a point scored every 10.4 yards gained which is also significantly better than the 14-yards per point they averaged last season. Both teams played slow last week at 18th and 21st in pace of play. Last year these same two teams were 24th and 26th in POP.  The trend when these rivals met is high scoring games in Buffalo and low scoring affairs in Miami. The last three meetings on this field between these two teams resulted in 35, 40 and 35 total points. We expect a defensive battle and like Under the Total.

ASA play on UNDER 43.5 NY Jets @ San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20 PM ET - The Niners were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL last season at 28.6ppg. On average it took them 13.9 yards/gained to score 1pt. BUT, they faced the 6th easiest schedule against subpar defenses. Late in the season last year the 49ers managed just 17pts versus a similar defense to the Jets in the Ravens D. When New York has the football, it should be a run first approach with RB Hall, a rebuilt O-line and a mindset to protect QB Rodgers in his first game since his injury last year. The Jets still managed 4.2 yards per rush last season when teams stacked the line of scrimmage against them when they didn’t have a QB. The Niners are susceptible to the run as they allowed 4.3YPR last season, 21st most in the NFL. In their 3 playoff games (when it mattered) the 49ers gave up 130, 182 and 136 rushing yards to the Chiefs, Lions & Packers. New York is going to be much better offensively this season with Rodgers than they were last season, but it’s going to be tough sledding in the opener against this San Fran D. SF gave up just 18.8ppg last season, the 4th fewest in the NFL. The Niners were 3rd in Opponents Points per Play at .300. The 49ers red zone D was also one of the best in the league allowing 1.6 TD’s per game. San Fran gave up less than 320ypg last season and 5.1-yards per play, both top 10 numbers. The Jets defense on paper might be the best in the NFL this season. They finished last season 3rd in overall DVOA. NY allowed less than 21ppg and were #1 in the league allowing 4.6 yards per play. The big names in this game have the number set higher than it should be for the public bettors. The Under trends on prime time TV games continues here.

#474 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday at  4:25 PM ET - We know opening day underdogs historically do very well, but we will make an exception here with the Bucs at home against a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Boyles is one of the best defensive minds in the game and has been for years. Washington’s QB Daniels is going to be special, but with a limited scheme early on, against a confusing defense is a tall task to ask in his first start. Tampa Bay gave up yards last season but didn’t give up points allowing just 19.2PPG, the 5th lowest number in the league. The Bucs will pressure Daniels with a pass rush that averaged 2.8 sacks per game last season 8th most. Offensively the Bucs have a new O-coordinator in Liam Coen, the former Rams assistant in 2022. Coen contributed to an offense that ranked among league leaders across those seasons in passing yards per game (248.1; sixth), completions (1,504; 10th), first downs per game (21.4; 10th), third-down conversion rate (41.9%; eighth), goal-to-go efficiency (75.2%; ninth), rushing touchdowns (77; fourth), and fewest sacks allowed (139; eighth). Tampa will rely on QB Mayfield and the dynamic duo at WR of Evans and Godwin against a Commander's defense that was last in the league in passing yards per game allowed at 262. Washington allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st) and Tampa hit for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2023 (10th). Washington has a new system offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff so it’s going to take time for them to adjust with a rookie QB. Tampa ended last season on a 6-2 SU run and narrowly lost to the Lions in the playoffs. Washington closed the year by losing 7 straight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Tampa and we like the Bucs to roll in this home opener.

#465 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We think the Bears are overvalued entering this season.  Their win total jumped from 8.5 to 9.5 and we just don’t see this team as a 9 or 10 win team.  Much of the hype is obviously the QB situation with #1 draft pick Caleb Williams getting the start in this one.  While he is talented, the fact is that rooking QB’s simply aren’t very successful especially early in the season.  Rookie QB’s starting season openers are just 16-35-1 SU and here not only does Williams and the Bears need to buck that trend, they need to win by margin.  Williams is the 19th first overall pick to start in Week 1 at quarterback, and the previous 18 went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29%).  He’ll be facing a totally revamped Tennessee defense with 7 new starters and a new DC so Chicago won’t know what to expect coming into this one.  The Titans offense struggled to throw the ball last season (28th in passing YPG) but that changes in 2024.  New HC Callahan is a very good offensive mind (OC for Bengals last year) and we’ve been hearing QB Levis has been making great progress in this new offense.  He was 11 of 13 passing in the pre-season and the Titan’s offense looked very good averaging 373 YPG.  We realize the pre-season isn’t always a great indicator, but we have no doubt this offense will be much better this season.  The Titans have solid weapons on the outside with Ridley, Hopkins (who looks like he’ll play here) and Boyd.  The Bears have only been favored only 6 times the last 2 seasons and only 2 of those were by -4 or more.  They are just 8-15 ATS as favorite since start of 2019 season.  These 2 teams had very similar records (7-10 & 6-11) last season and identical YPP margins.  This game should be closer to a pick-em in our opinion and we’re getting this above the key number of 3.  Take Tennessee.

#470 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We get a divisional underdog, at home, playing with revenge. I’m not sure what else needs to be said. Overall, underdogs in W1 typically do very well with a 71-53 ATS record going back to 2016. Divisional dogs in Week 1 are 30-18 ATS going back 48 games in that situation. These same two teams met in the regular season finale last year with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The Texans won that game 23-19 as a 1-point favorite on this same field. The Colts had more total yards 360-306, more first downs and a TOP advantage. The game ended with Indianapolis on the 15-yard line going into score. The Colts did it last season with a backup QB in Minshew and now have a healthy Richardson under center. Indy will focus on the ground game here with RB Taylor healthy and one of the best O-lines in the league.  The Colts were 11th in rushing attempts per game last season and 10th in rushing YPG at 121. Houston had very good defensive numbers last season but how much of that was due to playing a soft schedule against some of the league's worst offenses. In fact, the Texans faced 13 offenses ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of DVOA last season. Houston finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite which has happened just 3 times in the past two seasons. They are 1-2 in those games and failed to cover by an average of -10PPG. A lot of hype surrounding Texans QB Stroud and this team, gives us a ton of value with the home team.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON Under 41.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The QB positions on both sides are not ideal right now.  Pittsburgh planned to start Russell Wilson but he has a lingering calf issue.  If he plays he won’t be 100% and if he doesn’t it’s inaccurate Justin Fields who has a career completion percentage of barely 60%.  Atlanta plans to start Kirk Cousins who is coming off an achilles injury and hasn’t played since last October.  We don’t expect Cousins to be successful through the air here with zero game time with his new WR’s.  On the other side of the ball, we project both Pittsburgh and Atlanta to be the strengths of each team.  Atlanta has added key pieces with safety Simmons and edge rusher Judon bolstering an already top 10 defense in YPG, YPP, and PPG.  The Birds also have a new HC Morris who is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL so we look for a very good stop unit in Atlanta this season.  Pittsburgh will struggle big time on offense in this game.  The Steelers played both Wilson & Fields quite a bit in the pre-season yet they only scored a total of 32 points in 3 games.  Atlanta averaged just 19 PPG last season (26th in the NFL) and will most likely rely heavily on the run in order to protect Cousins early in the season.  Pittsburgh averaged just 18 PPG so we have 2 bottom 7 scoring offenses from last season going at it here.  Steeler games averaged 38 total points last year and Atlanta games averaged 41 total points.  Pittsburgh has been a huge money maker playing Unders in their road games with a 50-20 record to the Under the last 9 years.  Low scoring game here.

ASA play on OVER 48.5 Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Friday 8:20 PM ET (Brazil) - We are typically reluctant to play Overs on prime-time TV games but will make an exception here. These two teams are much better on one side of the football than the other and it starts with the offenses for both teams. When it comes to DVOA rankings the Packers had the 6th best offense in the NFL a year ago, the Eagles were 9th. The Packers averaged 5.7PPG on offense good for 6th best, the Eagles ranked 13th in Yards Per Play at 5.4. Both teams had explosive offenses. It took Philadelphia on average 14.3 yards gained per point (7th), Green Bay averaged 145.3YPPT (11th). On the defensive side of the football both teams struggled. The Eagles were 4th from the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA, the Packers weren’t much better ranking 27th. Philadelphia gave up 25.6PPG on the season, while Green Bay allowed 21.4PPG. The Packers numbers are slightly better than they should be as they faced 12 opponents last season that ranked in the bottom half of the league in total offense. The Eagles allowed 30+ points in 5 of their last eight games last season and Green Bay with QB Love scored 30+ in 3 of their last five games. We expect both teams to get into the mid-to-high 20’s in this game which will push this Over the number.

#454 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -2 over Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:20 PM ET – Game being played in Brazil - We think the Eagles will have a huge chip on their shoulders entering this season after losing 6 of their last 7 games a year ago including an embarrassing 32-9 loss in the playoffs to Tampa Bay.  The fact is, they were very banged up down the stretch, including QB Hurts who was nowhere near 100% in the 2nd half of the season.  They also upgraded big time at both coordinator positions which will help dramatically in 2024.  Kellen Moore will call the offensive plays after successful stints at Dallas and LA Chargers where his teams averaged 26 points in his 5 years as coordinator.  Vic Fangio, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, will handle the stop unit.  The Eagles fell off a cliff last year after finishing #1 in total defense in 2022 they dropped to 26th last season and we expect a big improvement under Fangio.  The Packers are a bit overvalued in our opinion.  Let’s not forget this team was just 9-8 last season, squeaked into the playoffs at a 7 seed after beating Carolina, Minnesota (with Nick Mullens at QB), and then Chicago to close out the season.  Their win over Dallas in the playoffs was impressive but how good is this team?  Their defense needs to take a huge step forward under new DC Hafley (HC at Boston College last year) after finishing 22nd in total defense each of the last 2 seasons.  The favorite has been money in the bank in NFL International Games with a SU record of 33-10-1 and a spread record of 29-15 (66%).  We’ll call for Philly to win this one by a FG or more. 

ASA play on UNDER 47.5 Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship which the Chiefs won 17-10. That game had an O/U of 44 with the Under cashing easily. In that game, the Ravens managed 336 total yards and 6.3YPP. They dominated time of possession 37:30 compared to the Chiefs 22:30, but three turnovers to zero doomed the Ravens chances. Kansas City had a tough time moving the ball against this Ravens defense with 319-total yards of offense at 4.5YPP. While both of these offenses get most of the attention, it’s the defenses that really set them apart from the rest of the league. Baltimore was 1st in defensive DVOA a year ago, KC was 7th. The Ravens allowed just 4.6YPP last season, the 2nd lowest number in the league behind the Jets. The Chiefs D gave up only 4.8PPP which ranked 5th. Teams had a very hard time sustaining drives against both teams with the Chiefs allowing the 5th lowest 3rd down conversion percentage at 35.53%, the Ravens ranked 9th at 36.52%. On average it took teams 18.4 yards gained to score 1-points against Baltimore which was best in the NFL. Kansas City wasn’t far behind that at 17.6-Yards Per Point. Another misconception about the Chiefs is that they are an Over team, when in fact they have stayed Under in 15 of their last 20 regular season home games, including 7 straight. KC is Under at home against the AFC in 9 of their last 10. The Ravens have stayed Under in 5 of their last 7 regular season road games and 7 of their last 11. There will be a lot of noise surrounding the two starting QB’s here in Jackson/Mahomes and the offenses but don’t buy into it and side with the defenses and Under.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - We’ll side with the better QB, the better defense, and the more experienced coach getting points in the Super Bowl. We’re all aware of the success KC has as an underdog. The Chiefs are on a tear that's seen them go 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. They were the outright winner in 15 of these games. Some of that predates Mahomes but if we look at the games where he was QB and the Chiefs were underdogs they are 10-1-1 ATS including winning 9 of those 12 games outright. The road KC took to get here was by far more impressive than what the Niners did. Mahomes and company beat a very good Miami team handily, then went on the road and beat the hottest team in the NFL (Buffalo) and followed that up with a road win at what most, including us, considered the best team in the NFL (Baltimore). Meanwhile, San Fran struggled to win home games vs 7 seed Green Bay and Detroit. Truth be told, the 49ers probably shouldn’t even be here as they led for only 27 minutes in those 2 games combined (out of 120 total minutes). SF QB Purdy is solid but is completely inexperienced in this spot and has looked a bit frazzled at times the first 2 games of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in 17 playoff games (14-3 SU record) and 3 Super Bowls. Huge QB edge to KC. The Chiefs have better overall numbers defensively (PPG, YPG, YPP) and they have played very well during this playoff run holding a potent Miami offense to 7 points, Buffalo put up 24 but on only 4.7 YPP, and they held the Ravens to 10 points in Baltimore. The Niners gave up 31 points last week to Detroit and 21 to Green Bay although the Packers blew some opportunities and only punted 1 time in the game. The KC defense gave up 11 points less than SF in the playoffs despite playing an extra game! Over their last 6 games SF’s defense allowed 29, 33, 10 (vs Washington), 21, 21, and 31 points. Not great. KC’s impressive run through the AFC (winning as underdogs) puts them in a good spot historically. In fact, in the last 20 seasons, there have been 8 teams that won outright in Championship game as an underdog and those teams went on to win 6 times (out of 8) in the Super Bowl. On top of that, dogs have covered 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls and we’re confident it will happen again this year. We like KC to win this game outright so take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY NFL 10* ON Over 51 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 50.5 in the Green Bay vs San Francisco game that landed on 45 but weather turned out to be a big issue in that game. That won’t be the case on Sunday as we are looking at temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation in San Francisco on Sunday. Even with the poor conditions last week (was worse than we anticipated) a GB missed 40 yard FG in the 4th quarter kept that one from being tied at 24-24 which would have led to an Over. The Packers were also stopped on downs at the SF 10-yard line in the first half & the Niners missed a FG to end the first half and both of those results took points off the board. SF’s QB Purdy had a very poor game and seemed to struggle throwing the ball in the heavy rain. He was held under 60% completion rate for only the 3rd time this season and the first 2 were vs Cleveland & Baltimore, 2 top 5 pass defenses. Now he’s facing a Detroit defense that ranks 31st vs the pass and we look for Purdy to have big time success in this one. Over their last 5 games alone, the Lions pass defense has allowed Vikings 4th string QB Mullens to pass for 411 & 396 yards, Dak Prescott 345 yards, Matt Stafford 367 yards, and Baker Mayfield 349 yards. We look for the passing game to open up SF’s potent rushing attack making them very tough to defend here. The Niners are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at almost 29 PPG and we look for them to top 30 in this one. Detroit should have plenty of success offensively as well. Green Bay moved the ball very well in poor conditions last week punting only once the entire game. The Packers ran for 136 yards on 4.9 YPC which could be a problem here for the Niners again vs a very good Detroit running game (7th in the NFL). SF’s defensive weakness is stopping the run (26th EPA) and that should open up Detroit’s passing game as well. We have 2 top 5 DVOA offenses going at it here in what we expect will be a “keep up” game with both teams being successful on offense. Historically there have been 15 totals in AFC & NFC Championship games set at 49 or higher and the Over is 10-4-1 in those games. Add another Over to that number on Sunday.

ASA Top Play NFL 10* on #320 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs, 3 PM ET - So by now you’ve heard everything there is to hear on this game and a majority of it has been Kansas City/Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid as underdogs, or in playoff games etc…They were in a very favorable scheduling situation last week against the Bills who were on a very short week. KC played well averaging 7.7YPP compared to the Bills 4.7YPP. But the Bills dominated the time of possession which means the Chiefs defense played 78 snaps. In comparison, the Ravens defense was on the field for only 46 snaps and will be the fresher of the two units. Speaking of defense, last week the Ravens rushed for 5.5 yards per carry and 229 yards overall against a Texans defense that was top 5 in the league in EPA per rush allowed. Kansas City ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed in the regular season. The Ravens were arguably the best/2nd best team in the league the entire season and rate as one of the greatest all-time teams in terms of DVOA rankings. This comes after facing the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Kansas City certainly didn’t look like the dominating Chiefs of the past this season despite playing one of the weakest schedules (21st) in the league. The Ravens are now playing their 4th straight home game heading into the Conference Championship game and teams in that situation are 7-1 SU dating back to 2004. In that same 20-year span, teams playing in the Divisional round or later and playing on the road for the second consecutive week are 13-41 SU. We won’t be swayed by the Chiefs recent two game winning streak as they benefitted from favorable weather and or scheduling in both games. Now the Ravens are the fresher team, at home and only laying 1.5-more points than the Bills were last week. The Ravens had the best overall Margin of Victory this season at +12.6PPG overall and +15.1PPG at home. Yes, betting against Mahome/Reid is a scary proposition but this Ravens team is better overall on both sides of the ball and over 60-minutes it will play out favorably for the home team.

#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 or 45.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The anticipated weather forecast has pushed this total lower than it should be in our opinion and we like the value on the Over in this one. The forecast now calls for the snow to stop on Saturday night with no precipitation on Sunday. That should allow plenty of time to get the field in good shape. The temps will be in the mid 20’s with 10MPH winds which isn’t bad at all. Both of these teams are used to playing in poor weather. In fact, both played in much worse conditions last week and KC put up 26 points and Buffalo scored 31 points. These 2 met in early December and the final score was Buffalo 20, KC 17 staying under the posted total which was 49. In that game both teams left points off the scoreboard with 2 turnovers in opposing teams territory and a TD called back late by KC because of a penalty. This total has been adjusted too low. Mahomes & Allen have faced off 6 times and the total in 5 of those games was set in the 50’s and the other meeting was 49. Now we’re talking mid 40’s for this total. In their 6 meetings prior to this one, these 2 have averaged 53.6 total points and that includes the 37 point output last month. They’ve met twice in the playoffs in do or die situations and put up 78 and 62 points in those 2 games. We have 2 top 10 offenses facing off (both total offense & YPP) with 2 high level QB’s that are both capable of putting up big numbers. With the weather looking OK as we get closer to game time, we like the Over in this game.

#303/304 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - This is going to be a “keep up” game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and press the other offense to keep up on the scoreboard. GB’s offense is clicking to say the least as they’ve put up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games while averaging 28 PPG over their last 9 contests. That includes putting up over 31 PPG during that stretch vs the 3 defensive teams they faced that ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. That includes last week rolling up 48 points vs a Dallas defense that had allowed 30 points only twice in their previous 12 games. SF’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL putting up 6.6 YPP and they scored at least 30 points in 9 games this year and we’re confident they’ll reach at least that vs this Green Bay defense that gave up over 500 total yards last week vs the Cowboys. The Packer defense ranked outside the top 20 in both YPP and YPG allowed yet played only 4 games the entire season vs teams ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. They allowed 27 PPG in those 4 games and SF is the best of the bunch so we’re confident the Niners get to at least 30 points here. GB has gone Over the total in 7 of their last 8 games and SF has gone Over the total in 5 of their 8 home games this season. The weather will be the one potential deterrent here as it’s been raining in the Bay Area for much of the week and may still be by gametime. The wind, however, doesn’t look bad on Saturday evening in the 10 MPH range. With the spread near -10 in this game the final score is projected to be around 30-20. We have both teams topping those projected numbers and we grab the Over.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs Houston Texans – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET - The Baltimore Ravens have HISTORIC numbers when it comes to DVOA rankings and are one the best all-time in that statistical category. They hold the #1 overall DVOA, 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The impressive aspect of that is they played the toughest strength of schedule this season in the NFL. The Ravens have an overall average +/- of +11.9PPG (best in the NFL) and a net differential of +14.1PPG at home (4th). Houston on the other hand is 12th in DVOA rankings, 14th offensively and 16th defensively. The Texans were much better at home (7-3 SU) than on the road (4-4 SU). They had a +/- at home of +6.9PPG but were negative -1.8PPG on the road. Baltimore averaged the 3rd most yards per play offensively at home at 6.4, while the Texans on the road averaged 5.0YPP. Going back to the season strength of schedule we find the Texans faced the 18th toughest schedule which includes 13 defense that rank in the bottom half of the league in DVOA. The Ravens have a net play differential of +1.3 yards per play compared to the Texans +0.3YPP against weak competition. Texans QB Stroud is going to be a very good NFL QB, but this is too much to ask of a rookie QB and coach. Lay it.

#152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Eagles have been trending the wrong way for months now and laying a full FG on the road right now with this team is too much so we’re siding with Tampa Bay. Philly has failed to cover their last 6 games and on the season and they lost 5 of those 6 games outright. Their only win since the beginning of December was an 8 point home win over the NY Giants. Philadelphia was outgained in 8 of their last 10 games and their defense fell apart allowing 31 PPG over their last 7. Despite their 11-6 overall record, the Eagles point differential is only +5 which is more in line with a .500 type team. Lastly they are really banged up right now on offense with QB Hurts dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand and both starting WR’s Brown and Smith not at 100%. TB trending positive winning 5 of final 6 games with only loss vs Saints in a game they outgained New Orleans 7 YPP to 4.4 YPP but had 4 turnovers. The Bucs were undervalued most of the season ending with an 11-6 ATS record (2nd best in the NFL) and now they are a home dog to a team that was barely hanging on over the last month of the season. Some infighting in the Philly locker room as well doesn’t help. We give the Bucs a solid shot at the outright win and getting a full FG is a bonus.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 50.5 Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET - Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 29.9PPG and has averaged 37.4PPG at home. The Cowboys have put up over 40+ points in four home games this season. The Cowboys have sixteen 40+ point games under head coach Mike McCarthy since 2020. Dallas should put up points against this Packer defense that is 27th in DVOA and give up 5.6YPP (20th). The Packers allow 128.3 yards per game (28th) and give up the 18th most passing yards per completion. Dallas and Dak Prescott have the best completion percentage in the NFL and average 258 passing yards per game which is 3rd most in the league. This Packer D looked much better in their last two games but that was against a Vikings team playing a rookie QB in his first start and a Bears team that wasn’t interested last week in the season finale. Prior to their last two games the Packers had given up 30 points to the Panthers, 34 to the Buccaneers and 24 to the Giants and NONE of those teams have an offense that compares to Dallas. In fact, the Packers Experted Plays Against defense in their last five games is one of the worst in the NFL and it came against a host of dead-beat quarterbacks. The Boys put up a poor showing in their last home game against the Lions and we expect an explosion this week against Green Bay. The Packers will score in this game too. The offense is as healthy as it’s been all season with a solid O-line that can slow the Cowboys pass rush and open holes for RB Jones. Packers QB Love has been outstanding this season and this team has no pressure whatsoever and can play loose. GBay has scored 20+ in 7 of their last eight games, 27 or more in four of those games. In the Packers two biggest games in recent weeks they put up 29 in Detroit and 27 against the Chiefs, two solid defenses comparable to the Cowboys.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44.5 Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8 PM ET - The weather expected in Kansas City on Saturday night is going to be brutal. The forecast is calling for 0 degrees with a windchill of -18 below. Winds are expected to be 15mph and it’s going to be extremely hard for either team to throw the football. Not to mention these teams have not been great offensively at the end of the season. Kansas City has gone from averaging 29.2PPG a year ago to 21.8PPG this season which is essentially ‘average’ in the NFL. Last season the Chiefs averaged 1-point for every 13.9 yards gained which was 4th highest. This year it takes them on average 16.1 yards gained to score a point which ranks 21st in the league. KC is 9th in yards gained pe game and in Yards Per Play. They have scored 21 or less points in 8 of their last twelve games. What the Chiefs have done well this season is play defense. KC is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per game (289YPG), the 5th fewest yards per play (5.0) and 2nd fewest points per game at 17.3. Against a Dolphins team that wants to pass you better be able to defend the pass and the Chiefs do that well too. KC is 4th in passing yards per game allowed and 8th in completion percentage against. Kansas City also averages 3.4 sacks per game which is 2nd in the league. Teams have figured out how to scheme against the Dolphins offense as the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills have held them to 22, 19 and 14-points in their past three games. Miami averages 13.8 yards per point for the season but against those three previous opponents that number dips to 18.6YPPT, 5th worst in the NFL. The Dolphins average the most yards per game at 401YPG on the season but in their last three games they have put up just 341.7YPG. Miami’s defense is 10th in yards per game allowed, 12th in yards per play allowed and 6th against the run. In 8 of their last 10 games the Fish have allowed 21 or less points. These two teams met in Germany earlier this season with the Chiefs winning 21-14, producing 35-points. Miami managed 292 total yards, Kansas City had 267 yards. Miami averaged 5.0YPP, KC managed 4.8YPP. As long as this number is above 44 we will be Under.

ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Miami Dolphins, 8:15 PM ET - The Chiefs were favored by -2.5 points earlier this season when these two teams met in Germany so the adjustment to -4.5 in KC doesn’t seem like enough in our opinion. You’ve probably heard many experts talk about the Dolphins playing in cold weather and their poor record in adverse conditions. That certainly has some merit but isn’t the sole focus of our handicap. Miami has several key injuries, especially to a defense that has been exploited in recent weeks. They are thin on the D-line and at the linebacker position and it couldn’t come at a worse time. In the past two weeks this defense allowed 56-points to the Ravens and nearly 500 total yards of offense. Last week they gave up just 21-points to the Bills but that should have been much worse as Bills QB Allen threw two INT’s in the red zone. Buffalo averaged 6.1YPP and racked up 473 yards on the day. The other factor to consider here is the fact the Dolphins defense was on the field for 77 plays last week, so fatigue becomes an issue. Granted, this is not the same Chiefs team that we have witnessed in the past as the offense has seen a massive regression this season. But the defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking 7th in DVOA, 2nd in yards per game allowed 5th in yards per play and 2nd in points allowed per game. Kansas City is 37-13 SU at home since 2019 and Patrick Mahomes has been in this situation more times than we can count. The same can’t be said for Tua Tagovailoa who is making his first career playoff start. QB’s in this situation have covered just 32% of the time in the last 20+ seasons. Tua is also 0-4 when playing in below 40-degree temperatures and Saturday’s forecast is calling for a negative windchill. Miami as a team has dropped 10-straight games in temperatures below 40 degrees. We have not been sold on KC all season long but the situation warrants a bet on them at home here as a small favorite.

#460 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Giants +5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These same two teams recently played in Philly with the Eagles a 14-point home chalk. Philadelphia won that game 33-25 and a +173 yardage advantage. New York had started QB Tommy DeVito in that game before Tyrod Taylor relieved him. Last week Taylor played well against the Rams with 319 passing yards on 27/41 passing. He also adds a rushing element with 40-yards on the ground against Los Angeles. The story here though is the in-season demise of the Eagles. Through the first two months of the season the Eagles had a net differential of +6.5PPG. Now for the season they are +1.4PPG which ranks 12th in the NFL. 8 of the Eagles 11 wins this season have been by one possession. 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 7 or less. There is turmoil in the Philadelphia locker room and some grumbling among the players/coaches. The defense took a turn for the worse when Matt Patricia took over the play calling. Philly has given up 20+ points in 6 straight games and have allowed an average of 31.5PPG over that same span of games. New York lost their first two home games of the season badly to Dallas and Seattle. Since then they have gone 3-2 SU at home and the two losses were by a combined 4-points. With the Eagles likely to rest starters in bad weather we like the G-Men to keep it close or win outright.

#466 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +3 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has shown no quit on the season traveling across the country to Philadelphia last week and beating the Eagles who were trying to hold onto their NFC East lead. The Cards were down 21-6 at half and could have folded in a meaningless game on the road but battled back for a 35-31 win behind 220 yards on the ground. It wasn’t a fluke as Arizona was +15 first downs and outgained the Eagles 449 to 275. The only other team to beat the Eagles at home this year was San Francisco. It’s no coincidence that Arizona QB Murray has played outstanding after head coach Gannon gave him vote of confidence saying he was absolutely their QB of the future. Murray has completed just under 70% of his passes for almost 700 yards and 6 TD’s his last 3 games. The Cards rushing attack has topped 150 yards in 3 of their last 4 games including topping 220 yards vs 2 playoff teams, the Eagles & Niners. That’s bad news for a Seattle defense that ranks 30th vs the run (26th EPA vs the run) and in the last 6 games this defense has allowed 169, 136, 173, 178, 162, and 202 yards on the ground. They look like they’re wearing down on that side of the ball which will be a problem vs this Arizona offense. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 wins during that stretch both coming by only 3 points. Seattle needs to win this game to have any shot at the playoffs so all the pressure is on the road team. The Cards can play loose and carefree as they did last week @ Philly and we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points.

#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Chicago is playing by far their best football of the season winning 5 of their last 7 games with an ATS record of 6-1-1 their last 8. While they can’t make the playoffs, they’d like nothing more than to end their 9 game losing streak vs Green Bay and knock them out of the playoffs. This young Green Bay team has all the pressure here as a win puts them in the post season while a loss limits their chances significantly. Unlike Chicago, the Packers were trending down heading into last weekend’s win over Minnesota who was playing with their 4th string QB Hall. That one data point is not changing our opinion. Leading into that game the Packers had lost to the NYG with DeVito playing QB, were smoked at home by an average Tampa Bay team, and needed a last second FG to beat a 2-14 Carolina team. This is a bad match up for Green Bay’s defense. They rank 28th vs the run and they are facing a Chicago offense that has a mobile QB and the 2nd best running attack in the NFL. Bear’s QB Fields is playing at a high level over his last nine starts with a QB Rating of 87.5 to go along with 1,838 yards passing, 13 TDs, and 521 yards rushing. The defense has been top level allowing 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve risen to 12th in total defense after being near the bottom of the league a few months ago. Chicago’s only losses since early November were by 3 points @ Cleveland and a loss @ Detroit in a game they led by 12 points with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. They have no pressure here and will do everything they can to beat this must win Green Bay team. And we all know must win doesn’t mean will win. In fact, Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS). We give the Bears a great shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

#468 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -120 or +3 +100 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Pittsburgh has to win to have a shot at getting into the playoffs here while the Ravens are locked into the #1 seed. Of course we see this every year and teams that have to win, often don’t. Baltimore will be sitting QB Jackson and some other starters which is why they are a home dog in this one. If both teams were full strength here the Ravens would be favored by more than a TD so this line adjustment is more than 10 points which we think is too much. Value on Baltimore. You can bet Harbaugh and the Ravens are all in to win this game. That’s how they operate. Even in “meaningless” games such as the pre-season this team plays to win which is why they have won 24 of their last 25 pre-season games. The starting QB will be Huntley and he has plenty of starting experience subbing for Jackson when needed. Let’s not forget that the Steelers will be starting QB Rudolph for the 3rd time this season and he is technically their 3rd stringer. Despite their 9-7 record, the Steelers have been outgained and outscored on the season. They rank 24th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 26th in defensive YPP allowed. They are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and in last week’s 7 point win over Seattle, the Steelers were outgained by 1.0 YPP but ran 22 more offensive snaps. The Ravens are a money making 20-5 ATS their last 25 as a dog and when Mike Tomlin and Harbaugh meet, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). We were looking at the exact same situation back in 2019 when Baltimore was hosting Pittsburgh, had secured a playoff spot, was a home dog, they were resting starters including QB Jackson, and the Steelers needed to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Final score was Baltimore 28-10. The Ravens are a deep & talented team and they would like nothing better than to ruin rival Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Bad weather and a low scoring game expected making the + points all the more important. All the pressure is on the Steelers here and we like Baltimore to win this game.

#131/132 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 43 Points - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This number opened 43.5 and was quickly steamed up to 46 with the Pro’s hammering the Over. Then the Vikings announced that they would start rookie QB Hall instead of Nick Mullens and the line dipped below 44. With this below a key number of 44 we will bite with a bet on the Over with whomever is under center for Minnesota. Mullens wasn’t great in his two recent starts, both losses, as he threw 6 INT’s to 4 TD’s. This Sunday the Vikings face a Packers defense that is really struggling to stop anyone. In their three most recent games the Packers allowed Tommy DeVito to look like Phil Simms and the 80’s Giants. They then faced the Bucs w/Baker Mayfield who had a perfect passer rating and one of his career best games in Lambeau. Last week they made the Panthers pathetic offense and QB Young look like a top 10 unit with nearly 400-total yards of offense. Green Bay gives up 22.1PPG on the season but in their last three games they have given up an average of 29.3PPG, 4th most in the NFL. Minnesota is 7th in yards per play and 10th in total yards per game and they won’t change their game plan here. Green Bay’s offense has played well in their last six games, scoring 20+ in all six while averaging 26PPG. The Packers are 13th in yards per play offensively and QB Love should have a field day against a Vikings pass defense that is 32nd in completion percentage defense and 17th in passing yards allowed per game. In the second meeting of the same season between these two NFC North rivals the Over has cashed three straight times with total points scored of 58, 47 and 50-total points. This game has OVER written all over it.

#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears -2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta can’t be trusted on the road where they have a 2-5 SU record and average only 13.6 PPG. Included in those 5 road losses were setbacks @ Carolina, @ Tennessee, and @ Arizona who have a combined record of 10-35. Their only road wins were by 3 points @ Tampa and by 5 points @ NY Jets and the Birds were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP in that win. In their road games Atlanta averages just 266 YPG (125 fewer than they average at home) and they average 10 fewer PPG away from home. Since Chicago QB Fields returned from injury in November, the Bears are 3-2 SU with their only losses coming @ Detroit and @ Cleveland, both games down to the wire. In fact, in their loss @ Detroit, the Bears led by 12 points with under 4:00 remaining in the game. The Chicago defense has been very good as of late allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that topped 20 points during that stretch were the Lions (@ Detroit) and even in that game Detroit had 14 points with under 4:00 minutes remaining. This defense has improved from near the bottom of the NFL at the end of September to their current ranking of 12th in total defense. Over the last 6 weeks, Chicago’s defense ranks 3rd in defense DVOA. The Falcons scored 29 points last week vs Indy and ran for 177 yards on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. That game was at home for the Falcons, where they are much better offensively, but not they face a Chicago defense that ranks #1 vs the rush (80 rush YPG allowed). That means they’ll most likely have to rely on back up QB Heinecke to have a huge game here. We don’t see that happening. We expect Atlanta to struggle big time offensively in this game. We’re getting a warm weather, indoor team playing in Soldier Field where the forecast calls for a cold & windy Sunday. We like the Bears here.

#112 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We have to wonder how focused the Titans will be after a pair of heart-breaking losses the past two weeks to Seattle and this same Houton team by 3-points each. Houston will get a huge boost with the return of QB CJ Stroud and have everything to play for. The Texans control their own destiny and can win the Division but need to win this game and then beat Indianapolis next week. Houston beat the Titans two weeks ago in Tennessee with backup QB Keenum. The Texans defense was outstanding, holding Tennessee to 204 total yards of offense and 3.6YPP. Houston is a drastically different team with Stroud and have been solid overall at home with a 5-3 SU record. The Texans lost at home in Week #2 then reeled off 4-straight wins at home by 24, 7, 2 and 5-points with Stroud under center. These two teams rate out relatively even in terms of DVOA defense, but the Texans are far superior offensively ranking 15th compared to the Titans at 26th. Tennessee has struggled on the road this season with a 1-6 SU record and a negative differential of minus -9.6PPG. As long as CJ Stroud plays we are on the Texans minus the points.

#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts -4 over Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Las Vegas is coming off a HUGE win over their biggest rivals the Kansas City Chiefs last week in Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce was in tears after the game and the team acted as if they had just won the Division. If we break this game down, we find the Raiders had just 205 total yards of offense and averaged 4.1YPP. They benefited from a fumble recovery for a TD and had a pick’6 for a touchdown. Not to mention, this Chiefs team is not the Chiefs team of years past so that win isn’t nearly as impressive as it looks like. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders QB O’Connell and his last two wins. If you take the games he’s played in and all the other QB’s in the league in that same time period, he rates 40 out of 40 in EPA+completion percentage statistics. We also get the Colts in a great spot here at home off an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last week. Indianapolis was held to less than 100 rushing yards by a solid Falcons rush defense that is 9th best in stopping the run. That won’t be the case this week as the Raiders are 21st in the league, allowing 4.3-Yards Per Rush and give up 122RYPG on the season. The Colts need to establish a running game to help relieve the pressure on QB Minshew and open up the play action pass. Indianapolis is 13th in rushing yards per game at 113.2 RYPG. The Colts have some deficiencies defensively, but the Raiders anemic offense won’t be able to take advantage of that edge. Las Vegas is 29th in total yards gained per game, 27th in yards per play gained, 31st in rushing and 23rd in passing. Las Vegas has struggled on the road this year with a 1-point win in their season opener in Denver and the win last week which wasn’t deserved last week. In between those two road wins they have losses by 28, 7, 18, 22 and 17-points. The Colts have won 5 of their last seven games and will get a double-digit win in this one.

#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas -5 or -5.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for Dallas in this one. Detroit clinched their first division title in 30 years last week beating Minnesota so they are in. After emotional road win last week, the Lions back on road for the 4th in 5 weeks. This is a huge game for Dallas as they sit 1 game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. A must win here would give them a shot at the division crown and a possible #2 seed while a loss would most likely send the Cowboys to the #5 seed and a road game to open the playoffs. Dallas is off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the AFC @ Buffalo and @ Miami. Last week they led Miami late before Fins made FG as time expired to win 22-20. The Boys are back home where they are 7-0 and have outscored their opponents by 171 points (+24 PPG). They’ve now won 16 straight home games and their spread mark in those games is 13-3. They are also very tough off a loss with an 8-1 ATS record. Dallas averages 40 PPG at home and they should have a field day vs a Detroit defense that has been trending down for a few months allowing an average of 27 PPG over their last 9. The Lions stats away from home drop off drastically while the Dallas home numbers are great. Dallas at home vs Detroit on the road…Dallas +24 PPG at home – Detroit -1 PPG on road, Dallas +143 YPG at home – Detroit +26 YPG on road, Dallas +1.1 YPP at home – Detroit -0.3 YPP on road. We like the Cowboys to win by at least a TD here.

ASA top play on 10* CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 vs. NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - The oddsmakers are trying to scare you off this bet with a line of minus -7.5 but in reality, the number is too low in our estimation. Consider this, the Jets were recently plus +7 points in Miami with starting QB Wilson. Back in late November they were plus +8.5 at Buffalo, again with Wilson. Cleveland is better defensively than both those teams by a wide margin, especially when playing at home. With the resurgence of QB Flacco they aren’t too far behind those teams offensively. Cleveland gives up just 13.1PPG when playing at home, allows 3.7 yards per play, 87.4 rushing YPG and 110.5 passing yards per game. The Jets offense has been atrocious on the road with averages of 12PPG, 4.7YPP and 249 total YPG. Don’t be fooled by the Jets 30-points in a thrilling late game win over the Redskins, whose defense has been shredded of late allowing 34.3PPG in their last three games. Prior to that game the Jets managed 0 points on the road against a Dolphins defense that isn’t anywhere near as good as the Browns. New York has scored 10, 13, 12, 6 and 0 in five of their six road games this season. The Browns offense has put up 31, 20 and 36 points in three straight wins and have averaged 372YPG over that stretch of games which is 4th most in the NFL. Cleveland is winning at home by an average of +7.4PPG while the Jets have the 3rd worst net differential on the road of minus -11.2PPG.

#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 Points - Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are two of the best overall defenses in the NFL ranking 1st and 4th in EPA and DVOA. San Francisco gives up 16.7PPG and 1-point scored for every 18.6 yards gained which rank 2nd and 1st in the NFL. Baltimore allows 16.1PPG and has a Yards Per Point defense of 17.9YPPT which rank 1st and 2nd respectively. Offensively both teams have some impressive overall statistics as each rank top 5 in both yards per play and total yards per game gained and scoring. But a closer look tells us that each team's offensive numbers may be a bit misleading based on the defenses they’ve faced. In San Francisco’s last six games they have not faced a defense ranked higher than 20th in EPA. In Baltimore’s last six games they have faced one defense ranked 19th or better in EPA. Baltimore is the 27th slowest paced team in the NFL at 1-play run every 29.6 seconds. The Niners are the slowest team in the league at 31.3 seconds per play. Baltimore’s best shot to beat this 49ers defense, which is soft in the interior, is by running the football. San Francisco is 19th in yards per rush allowed. The Ravens run the football more than anyone in the league at 32.7 rushing attempts per game and will be happy to grind away with the running game and keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. San Francisco is 6th in rushing attempts per game and will also focus on their rushing attack against a Ravens D that allows 4.3YPR. With a heavy volume of tickets and money on the Over by public bettors we will gladly go opposite and be the Under here.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 45 Points – Indianapolis vs Atlanta, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta is off terrible offensive showing last week losing 9-7 which is giving us some value on this total. Last week’s game @ Carolina was in a monsoon with rain and wind make it very tough on the offenses. On top of that, Carolina can’t score so the Falcons weren’t pressed to keep up so to speak on the scoreboard. The Falcons had a lead the vast majority of the game so they stuck to a conservative game plan (12 completed passes & 31 rush attempts). Atlanta is making a switch at QB going back to Heinecke which many times gives the offense a 1 game boost. In the 2 games he started this season the Falcons averaged 25.5 PPG and those games totaled 59 and 51 points. They have been terrible on offense on the road averaging 13 PPG but at home they are averaging almost 24 PPG. The Colts have been an Over team all season long. They have gone over the total 10 times this year which is the most in the NFL. Their defense is a liability ranking 8th in scoring allowing 24.5 PPG (27th in the NFL). On the other side of the ball Indy is a top 10 scoring offense and they’ve put up at least 27 points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are also a very fast paced team ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds per play. We have perfect conditions inside in Atlanta and we look for both offenses to thrive on Sunday. Over is the play.

#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40 Points - Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for Wild Card positioning. Games such as these have trended to the Over this season as both team will empty their playbooks for a win. Let’s set the record straight regarding the Browns defense this season. They have been fantastic at home allowing 13.1PPG on their home field. When they are away from home they give up nearly 31PPG. Points allowed in their five road games are 36, 29, 42, 26, 38 and 26. All 6 of their road games have gone Over the total and those games averaged 55 total points per game. In the two most recent starts by QB Flacco for Cleveland they have put up 31-points against a solid Jags D and 20 versus the Bears last week. Against Chicago the Browns amassed 385-total yards on 6.1YPP. The Browns have thrown in 44.7 times per game in their last three games compared to the 37.5 they average on the season. Going up against an average Texans defense we expect the Browns to put up points in this one. Houston is middle of the pack defensively this season and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They rank 16th in total YPG allowed, 19th in Yards Per Play allowed and give up the 25th most passing yards per game. Houston will also score here too with an offense that is 10th in total YPG and 7th in Yards Per Play. The Texans put up over 21PPG on the season and have scored 24.7PPG at home which is 9th highest in the league. Even with backup QB Keenum in the game we like the Texans to score 17 or more points and that’s all we’ll need to cash this Over.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over New Orleans Saints, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 7-7 records but we feel the Saints are overvalued at this point in the season. They are coming of 2 straight wins which were impressive on the scoreboard, however those wins were vs Carolina and NY Giants. Their win over the Panthers was very deceiving as New Orleans was outgained in that game (at home) by 100 yards but had a defensive TD. On top of that they had 2 TD drives of 44 yards or less after Carolina turnovers. Last Sunday’s win over NYG was a bit more impressive however they caught the G-Men on a short week after beating GB on Monday night. The Saints wins this year have come vs Carolina (twice), New England, NY Giants, Chicago (with backup QB), Tennessee and Indy. The Colts are the only team in that group currently with a winning record. The Rams are surging winning 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in OT. They’ve also covered 4 straight. Speaking of covering, Rams HC McVay has been great late in the season with an ATSU record of 17-4-1 his last 22 December games including 10-1-1 ATS at home in December. The LA offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late averaging 33 PPG, 425 YPG and more than 6.0 YPP over their last 4 games. Not only that, 2 of those games came vs Cleveland and Baltimore, who rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. The New Orleans defense looked good at home the past 2 weeks vs terrible offenses (NYG & Carolina) but prior to that they had allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their previous 6 games. Prior to their 2 wins the last 2 weeks vs poor competition, the Saints had lost 5 of their previous 7 games with all of those losses coming by at least 5 points. New Orleans is just 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games following a win and we like the Rams to win this one by a TD or more. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 45 Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - The injury/illness status of Eagles QB Hurts is the big news here as he is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Seahawks have their own QB injury to worry about as Geno Smith has a pulled groin and may not play tonight either. That means it could be a showdown between backups Marcus Mariota for Philly and Drew Lock for the Seahawks. We are still betting Over the total with the reserve QB’s. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive numbers when it comes to DVOA ratings. Defensively both are in the bottom third of the NFL with the Eagles ranking 22nd while the Seahawks are 24th. Offensively though both ae in the top half of the league with Seattle 12th and Philly 8th. In their last three games the Eagles defense has been exposed allowing 33+ points in three straight and 4 of their last six games. Seattle hasn’t been any better, allowing 28, 41 and 31-points in their last three games. Both teams give up 5.7 yards per play (24th) and over 350YPG. Seattle allows 24.5PPG which ranks 25th in the NFL while the Eagles allow 24.7PPG (28th). We are expecting both teams to get into the mid-20’s here. Bet Over!

ASA play on 8* Baltimore Ravens -2.5 or -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:20 PM ET - The Ravens are playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and are playing like the best team in the AFC. Jacksonville had some early season success with favorable luck but have lost 3 of their last five games. The Jags have lost two straight to the Bengals with Jake Browning at QB and the Browns with Joe Flacco. Now they face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who have the 2nd best overall DVOA rating in the NFL, rank 5th offensively and 2nd defensively. A perfect comparison can be made when the 49ers came to Jacksonville earlier this season as a 3-point favorite and won 34-3. Baltimore’s ten wins this season have all come by 3 or more points. You could argue that this team should be undefeated at this point. They lost in late September to the Colts in OT, completely outplayed the Steelers and lost by 7-points and in their 3rd loss of the season it took a late pick’6 by the Browns to seal their fate. The Jags true home wins are not impressive as they’ve come against the Colts and Titans. Jacksonville is 8-5 on the season but are more like a .500 team statistically. They rank 16th in offensive DVOA and 8th in defensive DVOA but they had ranked as high as 3rd just a few weeks ago. Last season the Jags beat the Ravens 28-27 so it’s not likely Baltimore will be looking past this opponent. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Falcons -2.5 or -3 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Huge game for the Falcons who are tied for the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Atlanta is off a deceiving home loss vs TB but outplayed the Bucs big time in that game. The Birds outgained the Bucs 434 to 290 yards and they were +2.0 YPP in that loss. They had won 2 straight prior to last week’s tough loss so the Falcons could easily be on a 3 game winning streak. Last week’s loss gives us some value here with the number where it is at -3. Carolina is now 1-12 after getting blown out @ New Orleans last week. They are dead last in point differential on the season losing by an average of 11 PPG. The Panthers are getting outgained by 1.0 YPP and their only win this season came by a mere 2 points. We’re laying only a FG here and every loss Carolina has had this year has come by at least 3 points and 9 of their 12 losses have come by at least a TD. The Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL averaging barely 4.0 YPP and they are facing a sneaky good Atlanta defense that ranks 6th in the NFL giving up only 5.1 YPP. The Cats have scored 15 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games, only topping that number vs TB where they scored 18. Needless to say we don’t expect Carolina’s offense to break out and have an unusually good performance here. Atlanta has a 6-7 record yet their numbers suggest they are better than that. They have a positive YPG and YPP differential on the season. The Falcons have dominated this series winning 12 of the last 16 meetings and we’re only laying a FG here which is the 2nd lowest spread of any team vs Carolina this season. The Panthers are just 8-20 SU vs division opponents since 2019 and we look for Atlanta to win this one by more than a FG

ASA top play on 10* Green Bay Packers -3 or -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Everyone who watched the Monday night game will be jumping off the Packers bandwagon here but we like the situation to ‘buy low’ on Green Bay. We expect the Packers to bounce back off that ugly showing and play as they did in the three previous games. Green Bay has also won 3 straight at home against the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. The Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons in a game that they were thoroughly outplayed. Tampa Bay was outgained 290 to 434 by Atlanta and averaged 4.3 yards per play which was a full 2.0 less YPP than the Falcons. The Bucs defense is decimated with injuries right now and it’s shown on the field as they allow 5.6YPP (27th), 363YPG (27th) and can’t stop the pass giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at 264YPG. The Packers are averaging the 9th most passing YPG over their last 3 games and have put up the 9th most total YPG in that same time frame. The Bucs rank in the lower third of the NFL in most key offensive categories including total YPG, yards per play, yards per rush and rank 20th in passing YPG. In their last three home games, the Packers defense has allowed 20-points or less and they have much better statistics at Lambeau than on the road. We like the Packers at home by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38 Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - We get a pair of solid defenses here and two very average offenses in what shapes up to be a low scoring affair. The Browns hemorrhage points on the road but have been much better at home where they allow 12.6PPG which is best in the league. Last week the 27-points scored by the Jags was misleading as they managed under 300-total yards in the game and scored a late TD with 1:33 remaining. The Browns have certainly gotten a boost from veteran QB Flacco, but he has a very low QBR of 41.5 with 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Let’s also consider the two games he’s played in have come against the Rams and Jags who rank 20th and 31st in passing YPG allowed. The addition of DL Sweat has bolstered the Bears pass rush which is averaging 2.7 sacks per game over their last three so expect plenty of pressure on the immobile Flacco. The Bears defense has been rising in the stat charts in recent weeks and currently sit 13th in yards per play allowed at 5.2YPP. In their last three games they are giving up just 4.9YPP defensively. We don’t expect Chicago to put up a big number here offensively against this Browns D. Chicago is 22nd in yards per play at 5.2YPP, rank 21st in total yards per game and average 20.8PPG which is 20th. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game in the league, 3rd fewest yards per play, rank 11th in rushing D and 1st in passing D. This game has that 17-14 type outlook. Bet Under.

#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win.

ASA play on 8* Los Angeles Chargers +3 or +3.5 at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 PM ET - We are grabbing the points here in what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Chargers are without Justin Herbert for the rest of the season and turn to QB Easton Stick to lead them from here on out. Stick actually looked decent last week against Denver going 13 of 24 for 179 passing yards. Stick is a proven winner as he went 49-3 in college at North Dakota State. He’s been with L.A. for 5 years and knows the system as well as anyone. The Raiders also have quarterback concerns as Aiden O’Connell hasn’t really stood out. Last week the rookie was 21 of 32 for 171 yards and an interception. The Raiders offense is one of the very worst in the league ranking 29th in DVOA. Expect L.A. to focus on their running game here against a Raiders D that ranks 25th in rushing yards p/game allowed and 23rd in yards per/rush allowed. You can’t bet the Raiders and expect them to cover any number greater than 3-points when they average 15.5PPG and have scored 17 or less in four straight games. The Chargers beat this Raider team earlier this season 24-17 as a 7-point favorite and Herbert was a pedestrian 13/24 for 167 yards. As we stated earlier, with the low total of 34-points on this game we like whatever points are available and the Dog.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 37 Green Bay Packers at NY Giants, Monday 8:15 PM ET - The NFL Under trends and specifically Prime Time TV Unders will continue on Monday night when the Packers and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. Let’s put aside the Under record on MNF of 13-2 on the season and focus on the two teams involved and the given situation. Both teams have struggled to score points this season, especially the Giants who average 13.3PPG on the year. Green Bay is considered ‘average’ in scoring at 21.5PPG. It takes the Giants 19.5 yards gained to score 1-point and Green Bay 15.3 yards gained for a point. Both teams are hovering around average in pace of play, so it won’t be a high possession game. The Packers are below average in total yards per game at 329YPG, rank 13th in yards per play at 5.6, 20th in rushing YPG and 18th in passing YPG. The Giants offensive numbers are brutal as they rank last in the league in yards per game gained, 31st in yards per play, 18th in rushing and 32nd in passing yards. Defensively the Packers allow 20.2PPG which is below the league average of 21.7PPG. The Giants are allowing 24.3PPG but they’ve also faced some of the league highest scoring offenses with two games against the Cowboys, one versus Miami, San Fran and Buffalo. Green Bay is on a 6-3 Under streak their last nine games and the Giants have stayed under in 17 of their last eighteen at home. With potential high winds and adverse conditions, we like a low scoring game here.

#123 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Broncos come into this game off a 17-22 loss in Houston last week. Denver has won five of their last six games including wins against the Packers, Bills and Chiefs. Last week the Broncos defense held the Texans offense to 5.6 yards per play and 353 total yards which are less than their season averages of 5.8YPP and 373YPG. The Broncos defense is allowing 6.0YPP and 385YPG on the season but in their last three games that number dips to 5.0YPP and 335YPG. In our opinion the Chargers may be the biggest ‘fraud’ in the NFL this season. The five Bolts wins have come against the Patriots, Jets, Bears, Raiders and Vikings who have a combined 21 wins this season. The LA defense is near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every key category ranking 29th in total yards per game allowed (380), 29th in yards per play allowed (6.0), 17th against the run and 31st in passing yards per game allowed. Now take into consideration some of the offenses/quarterbacks they’ve faced including the Jets, Raiders, Patriots and Bears who all rank 25th or worse in offensive DVOA. The Denver offense has scored 20+ points in 8 of their last eleven games and QB Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a very nice season with 2,385 passing yards and 21 TD’s to 7 INT’s. Wilson has also added 310 rushing yards this season and has picked up crucial 1st downs with his feet when needed. Last season the two games between these two teams were decided by 3-points each. Grab the points here with Denver who wins by 3.

#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears +3.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These two NFC North rivals met a few weeks ago in Detroit with the Lions winning 31-16 as a -7.5-point favorite. The Bears largely outplayed the Lions for most of the game before Detroit scored a TD with :29 seconds to play and then got a safety with :07 seconds left to seal the victory. The one area of that game that the Bears dominated was in the running game as they rushed for 183 yards on 46 attempts. Detroit ran it 22 times for 115 yards. That’s significant for this game as the weather conditions are projected to be horrible with high winds from 15-25mph and potential snow showers. QB Goff has played three straight games indoors and hasn’t had to play a game in adverse conditions this season. His QBR in games played outdoors drops dramatically compared to his indoor numbers. Even if the Lions decide to focus on their running game it will be extremely difficult against a vastly improved Bears defense that allows the least rushing yards in the league at 79YPG. In comparison, the Bears rush it for 4.4 yards per carry which is 9th best in the league and 137.7 yards per game which is 3rd most. Detroit has solid rushing defensive numbers for the entire season but in their last three games they are giving up 135RYPG which is 24th most. The Lions defense has allowed 26 plus points in 5 of their last six games while the Bears have allowed 24 or less in 6 of their last eight games. We like the Bears to get revenge in this one.

#118 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +3.5 over Houston, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’re going to plug our nose and take the Jets in this one as a solid value play in our opinion. Houston has been much better than most anticipated but now they have become a bit overvalued laying over a FG on the road in this one. The only other road game where the Texans were favored this year was at Carolina and Houston lost that game giving the Panthers (1-11 record) their only win of the season. The Texans haven’t played a road game in a month (Nov 12th) having played 3 straight home games. Historically teams that are favored by more than a FG on the road coming off 3 consecutive home games are 19-41 ATS. They also have a division game on deck @ Tennessee next Sunday and it wouldn’t surprise us at all of this young team was a little off their game on Sunday in this letdown spot. They also lost one of their top offensive playmakers in last week’s win over Denver as WR Tank Dell broke his leg and is out for the season. That’s a big blow to this offense that will be facing a very good Jets stop unit. NY ranks in the top 5 in both defensive DVOA and EPA. Last week NY lost at home to Atlanta but the defense held the Falcons to 193 total yards on just 3.0 YPP. Problem was the offense with back up Tim Boyle at QB. He was terrible in his 2 starts and cut from the team. Now they go back to Zach Wilson at QB who is much better than Boyle and should give the Jets a boost on that side of the ball. Houston struggles to run the ball and relies on rookie QB Stroud who has been very good. Here he is facing a Jets defense that ranks 3rd in pass defense and 2nd in yards per pass attempt. We’re getting cold & windy weather as well Sunday in East Rutherford, the first bad weather type game this dome team has played in this season. In what the oddsmakers think will be a low scoring game (total is 33) getting above a FG with the home team is a solid play.

#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40.5 Points - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the first meeting of the season when the O/U was 37.5 and the two teams involved for 29 total points. So that game stays under a lower total and this number goes up? In the earlier meeting the Falcons racked up over 400 yards of total offense at 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs had 329 total yards of offense at 5.1YPP. There were several red zone opportunities by each team that didn’t result in points including a pair of potential TD’s by the Falcons. Atlanta fumbled at the 1-yard line and fumbled into the endzone for a touchback costing them 14-points. Tampa Bay also threw an interception at the 11-yard line as they were going into score. The Falcons gave up 8-points to the Jets last time out but that was the Jets. Prior to that game this defense allowed only 15-points to the Saints but New Orleans had 440+ total yards of offense which should have led to more points. Prior to that game the Falcons had allowed 25, 31 and 28 points in three straight games. Offensively the Birds had scored 23+ points in 4 straight games before managing just 13 against a good Jets defense in rainy conditions. Tampa Bay has put up 20+ points in 4 of their last five games and the only game they didn’t was against the best defense in the NFL at San Francisco. Defensively the Bucs aren’t as good as their reputation ranking 14th in DVOA (ATL is 25th). The Bucs gave up just 18-points last week to Carolina but the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL. Before that game the Bucs had allowed 27 to the Colts and 49ers. In the second meeting of the same season between these two teams they have gone Over the number in 4 straight with every one of those games finishing with 47 or more points.

#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -10 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals offense will have big time problems generating anything in this game with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. Last week vs Pittsburgh the Bengals back up QB Browning had decent numbers (227 yards passing) but he had a number of turnover worthy plays that didn’t turn into turnovers. He threw 1 interception but that could have easily been 3 or 4. The Bengals scored 10 points vs the Steelers and we don’t see them generating any more in this game vs a solid Jacksonville defense (5th DVOA defense). Here’s the problem with Cincinnati’s offense in this game. Not only are the playing an inexperienced back up QB but they can’t run the ball at all (32nd in the NFL) which puts even more pressure on Browning to be perfect. The Jags run defense is 4th in the NFL allowing just 87 YPG so we don’t see Cincinnati’s run offense magically coming alive in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags are playing well offensively. They’ve put up 58 points the last 2 weeks combined but it could have been more. Last week vs Houston they averaged 6.5 YPP in a 24-21 win but they crossed into Houston territory on 8 of their 11 possessions. Jacksonville had 445 total yards but averaged only 1 point for every 18.5 yards gained which was well below their season average of 1 point every 14.5 yards gained entering last week. If they hit their yards per point average in that game they would have scored 31 points. Now they face a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in the NFL YPP allowed, 31st in total defense, 29th in rush defense, and 26th in pass defense. Last week Pittsburgh only scored 16 points on this defense but also had over 400 yards. Prior to last week Cincinnati had allowed 30+ points in their previous 2 games. This defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate which should allow the Jags to keep drives alive in this one. Jacksonville has played a tough home slate already facing SF, KC, and Houston, but in their home games vs lower tier opponents they rolled Indianapolis by 17 and Tennessee by 20. We see a similar outcome here. Lay it.

#467 ASA PLAY ON 8* San Francisco -3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards in four straight games, and they’ve won each one. The Bills outgained them by 127 yards, and the Eagles defense couldn’t get off the field. Philly is 7-1 in one-score games, with five of those coming against teams at .500 or worse. The Eagles were trailing in the 4th quarter in 4 of last 6 games and they’ve been trailing at halftime in 5 games and won all 5. They’ve been very fortunate to say the least. Despite their 10-1 record, Philly’s overall numbers aren’t that impressive. They are only outgaining their opponents by +25 YPG and their YPP differential is barely above water at +0.2. San Fran has 2 more losses with a record of 8-3 but their numbers are much better with a YPG differential of +90 and a very solid YPP differential of +1.7. The point differential comparison is even more telling. Despite 2 more losses the Niners point differential is +140 which is more than double that of the Eagles point differential which is +64. Total season DVOA San Francisco ranks 2nd in the NFL while Philly coming in at 9th. The 49ers are better on both sides of the ball ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and 6th defensively compared to the Eagles 7th and 17th respectively. Philly has had 4 straight down to the wire games vs Washington, Dallas, KC, and Buffalo while SF has rolled up 3 double digit wins in a row and they have extra time to prepare here having faced Seattle on Thanksgiving Day. This one sets up really nicely for the 49ers to win on the road. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM ET - Philadelphia has faced a tough gauntlet of games including last weeks OT thriller against the Bills. Philly trailed for much of that game but managed a game tying FG with .20 seconds left to send it to OT. In poor conditions the Bills and Eagles put up 61 points in regulation. The Philly defense was shredded for over 500 yards by the Bills last week and have given up 22.4PPG on the season which ranks bottom third in the NFL. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game allowed (341), yards per play (5.5) and are especially vulnerable to the pass ranking 29th in passing YPG given up. They will have a hard time stopping a 49ers offense that is 3rd in yards per game gained, 2nd in yards per play at 6.6, 7th in rushing and 8th in passing YPG. The Niners offense had scored 30+ points in five straight games to start the season then had 3 lower scoring outputs with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. With his return they have scored 34, 27 and 31-points in three straight games. The Philadelphia offense will face a stiff test versus this top ranked 49er defense, but they have more than enough weapons on that side of the football. Philadelphia ranks top 13 in most key offensive categories including being 3rd in scoring at 28.2PPG. The Eagles have scored 30+ points in 4 of five home games this season and 28+ in all five. It’s not a stretch for both teams to score in the 30’s in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Texans -3 vs Denver Broncos, 1:00 PM ET - We have lost value in this game as the number crossed -3 but we still like the Texans in this situation as long as they are under -4. The Broncos have won 5 straight games and certainly played better but we aren’t sold yet. Four of those games came at home and two of those wins came by 3-total points. They were also outgained in four of those five wins. Houston was on a bit of a heater themselves with 3 straight wins prior to last weeks huge loss to the Jaguars. The Texans with CJ Stroud have been a huge surprised this season with a 6-5 SU record with all six wins coming in the last nine games. These teams have identical records, yet the Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA while the Broncos are 22nd. Houston is 12th in offensive DVOA, Denver 12th, the Texans are 20th in defensive DVOA, the Broncos are 32nd. The Texans are averaging 6.0 yards per play which is the 4th best number in the league. Houston is 6th in yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game at 276. The Broncos defense allows 388YPG which is 30th, give up 6.3YPP (31st) and give up the 23rd most passing YPG. Denver wants to run the football with the 8th best rush offense, but Houston stops the run extremely well allowing 3.6 yards per rush which is the 3rd best number in the NFL. Denver has only played 4 road games and they go to Houston where the Texans have won 4 of their last five. The Broncos run comes to an end here.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - Being a professional sports bettor for over 30 years makes it very difficult to lay the points with Dallas here as this play has ‘public’ written all over it. We will make an exception though and don’t feel this line is high enough yet after opening with Dallas minus -6 or -7. The Cowboys at home have put up an average of 31.5PPG and have margins of victory of over 20PPG in 5 wins. The Dallas offense at home averages 7.0 yards per play which is 7th best in the league and total over 377YPG. Dak Prescott and the offense have the #1 ranked completion percentage at home at 70.3% and average the 4th most passing YPG at home. Seattle has taken a turn for the worse this season after a solid start and have lost 3 of their last four games. The Seahawks road numbers are especially bad as they are averaging just 10.6PPG in their last three road contests and two of those came against below average defenses of the Rams and Bengals. Seattle’s offense is below average in most key categories including total YPG, rushing and passing yards per game. Thursday, they face a Dallas D that is 3rd in yards per game allowed, yards per play allowed and give up just 16.8PPG which is 4th best. The Cowboys have won 13 straight home games and have scored 38+ in four straight in AT&T Stadium.

#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are back at full strength with Justin Fields back in at QB and we like them to give Minnesota problems on Monday night. Chicago played @ Detroit last Sunday and led for much of the 2nd half including holding a 12 point lead with under 3:30 remaining in the game. The Lions pulled out a miracle with 17 points from that point on to beat Chicago by 5. Minnesota had their 5 game winning streak ended with a 21-20 loss @ Denver last week. New QB Dobbs has looked very solid for the Vikings but struggled in the 2nd half last week leading Minnesota to just 10 points along with throwing an interception. Dobbs was also very solid to start the year with Arizona but as teams figured out the Cards offense and how they were going to use him, he tapered off and we wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here. In the first meeting this season, Minnesota was at 100% with Cousins at QB and really struggled to beat the Bears 19-13. In that game Minnesota only scored 1 offensive TD and had a long fumble recovery for a TD which was the difference in the game. Chicago had more first downs and outgained the Vikings in that loss but had 3 turnovers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins this season have come by a single score and they’ve only won 1 game by more than 8 points. Four of Chicago’s last five losses have been 1 score games. The Bears offense should get back on track with Fields back in the line up and their defense has been very good as of late jumping from near the bottom of the NFL in late September to 15th in total defense where they currently stand. Minnesota has been historically poor on Monday nights with a 5-13 spread record since 2009. We think Chicago has a great shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#269/270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Many still view KC as the same high scoring offense as last year’s team that led the league averaging just over 29 PPG. That’s not the case as the Chiefs are struggling offensively and averaging a full TD less than last season (22 PPG). The defense is what is carrying the Chiefs this season as they rank 4th in total defense and DVOA defense and 5th in YPP allowed. They are allowing only 16 PPG which is good for 3rd in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. They have held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 21 or less and we don’t expect Vegas to get near that number with rookie QB O’Connell under center again this week. Last week the Raiders scored only 13 points @ Miami and in the 5 games that O’Connell has taken snaps they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points 4 times. The Raiders have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 meetings with KC and this year the Chiefs have the best defense they’ve had during that stretch. What’s impressed us about Las Vegas is the huge upgrade they’ve made defensively. After finishing last season ranked 26th in PPG allowed, they rank 12th in the NFL allowing 20 PPG this season and have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Even vs the potent Miami offense last week Vegas allowed only 20 points. We think they’ll continue to play well in this division game vs Kansas City. The implied score in this game based on the spread (KC -10) and the total (43.5) is right around 27-17. We don’t think the Las Vegas offense will get to 17 vs this Chiefs defense and KC has only topped 27 points TWICE the entire season. Under is the call on Sunday afternoon.

#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48 Points - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM CT - This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #113 Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. NY Jets, Friday 3 PM ET - Let’s be upfront on this wager. It looks like we are laying a premium price with the Dolphins here as this line opened with Miami favored by -7.5 points and has been bet up steadily since. Part of the bump in the number is the speculation the Jets are going to their 3rd string QB Tim Boyle. Boyle has been in the league for 5 years out of Eastern Kentucky with 18 games played with 607 total passing yards on 72/120 passing. He has 3 career TD’s to 9 INT’s. This Jets offense is putrid! They have scored 13, 6, 12 and 6-points in their past four games. New York is averaging 4.7 yards per play this season (29th) which is even worse in their past three games at 4.1YPP. The 270YPG and 15PPG average are both 30th in the league. They can’t run (23rd) at 99.8 rushing yards per game or pass (30th) at 170.5 passing YPG. Nothing will come easy against a Dolphins defense that is 12th in total YPG allowed and 13th in yards per play allowed. Miami has one of the best offenses in the NFL rankings 1st in total YPG, 1st in yards per play (7.2), 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing. The Jets simply cannot keep up with this offense. Miami has struggled against the good teams this season, but against the bad teams they’ve dominated with 4 double digit wins. Miami is coming off a poor final score against the Raiders with a 20-13 win. They dominated statistically with 9 more first downs, had 422 total yards of offense but 3 key turnovers cost them points. This week they make a statement on Friday with a 2 or more TD win over the Jets.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #106 Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday 12:30 PM ET - The extra ½ point on this game will have plenty of bettors on the Packers as a division dog but not us. The Lions were favored by -2.5 points at Lambeau earlier this season and put up 34-points in a 14-point win. Detroit put up over +400 total yards of offense and held the Packers to 230. In week #2 of this season the Lions were favored by 6-points at home against Seattle and lost 31-37. Since then, they have gone 4-0 SU at home with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points. Last week they trailed the Bears for most of the game before two TD’s late in the game for a win. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Lions. Green Bay has to travel here on a short week and are coming off a satisfying home win over the Chargers. The Packers QB Jordan Love has looked good the past two weeks but now he’ll be playing without RB Aaron Jones and going up against a Lions defense that is ranked 9th in defensive DVOA. Detroit is 5th against the run, 9th in total YPG allowed and 8th in opponents completion percentage. Green Bay is 18th in offensive DVOA and 23rd defensively. The Packers have one road win this season (Bears) and they haven’t faced a team of the Lions caliber on the road yet. Last season the Lions had an average +/- at home of +7.8PPG, this year that average is +8.6PPG.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one.

#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +6 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game in our opinion for Houston. They’ve only been favored three times this season and never more than 3.5 points. They didn’t cover any of those games and lost 2 of them outright. The Texans are coming off a huge road win topping Cincinnati 30-27 and held on for dear life with the Bengals turning the ball over in Houston territory in 2 of their final 4 possessions. We feel a letdown is in order here for a team that is not used to having much success. We feel Arizona could be a very dangerous team moving forward with Kyler Murray back in the line up at QB. They topped a solid Atlanta team last week and the Cards dominated the stat sheet outgained the Falcons by 100 yards and +2.0 YPP. Murray was dynamic under center with 249 yards passing and 33 yards rushing. His mobility will make it tough to defend this offense on Sunday. Arizona also got top RB Conner back in the fold after an injury and he ran for 73 yards on 16 carries. The entire Arizona team seemed rejuvenated with Murray back under center. We’ll see how the Texans handle some unexpected success on Sunday. Historically, poor teams from the previous season that pull upsets are a heavy play against. In fact, NFL favorites from week 5 on that are off a SU upset win as a dog and won 4 or fewer games the previous season have a spread record of 32-66 ATS the last 44 seasons! It’s hard for teams that aren’t used to success to suddenly handle success well. That goes for Houston who is 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored including 0-3 ATS this year as we already mentioned. Take the points in what we feel will be a close game on Sunday.

#456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay Packers +3 vs LA Chargers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a bad line by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly capitalize on the home underdog Packers. The Packers are coming off a game in Pittsburgh they should have won as the Steelers were once again outgained but still managed to win. Green Bay racked up 399 total yards against Pittsburgh’s defense that is rated 7th in defensive DVOA and now face a Chargers unit ranked 27th. The Packers averaged 6.1 yards per play a full 1.0YPP better than their season average. L.A. is coming off a home loss to the Lions 38-41. The Lions averaged 8.3YPP against the Chargers D and put up 533 total yards of offense. Those defensive numbers aren’t shocking as the Chargers are 30th in the league in yards per play D, 31st in total yards allowed per game and 32nd in passing yards per game allowed. The Packers defense has been better than expected this season allowing 320YPG (11th best), 5.1YPP (7th) and hold opponents to 20.2PPG (12th). The Chargers rely on their passing attack offensively but have injury concerns to the WR corps and they’ll be facing a solid Packer pass defense. Green Bay allows the 7th fewest passing YPG this season at 187YPG, along with ranking 7th in yards per completion and 8th in yards per attempt. Green Bay has lost two games at home this season but that was to the Lions and Vikings (w/Cousins) who we rate better than L.A. Not to mention, the lines on those two games were lower than this one.

#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it!

ASA top play on 10* #312 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge letdown losses as the Bengals suffered a beat at home to the Texans, while the Ravens squandered a 14-point lead to the Browns in the 4th quarter and lost at home by 2. We expect Baltimore to bounce back here at home in this HUGE division game. Both teams have impressive ATS records when coming off a loss going back to 2020 with the Bengals 16-7-1 ATS while the Ravens are 14-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is 8-5 SU their last thirteen home games with an average +/- of +7PPG. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same team this season (5-4 with an ave +/- of minus -1.1PPG) after going 27-13 SU the previous two seasons. The Bengals averaged 353.8 total yards per game last season (11th) but are putting up just 301.7YPG this season which ranks 24th. In fact, the Bengals have been outgained in terms of Yards Per Play in every game this season but one. The Bengals defense has allowed 6.1YPP this season which is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Denver Broncos at 6.4YPP. In comparison, Baltimore’s defense is best in the league in this stat category allowing only 4.2YPP and giving up only 273 total YPG. The Ravens have been especially stingy in the Red Zone allowing just 34.62% (3rd) of opponent’s TD’s to be scored. Baltimore is averaging 5.7YPP on the season and score TD’s on 64.29% of their RZ attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Baltimore outplayed the Bengals in the first meeting this season with +7 more first downs, 415YDS to 282YDS and a +1.0YPP advantage in their 3-point road win. Some may look at the dog in this rivalry, but the numbers tell us the Ravens have been much better on both sides of the football this season. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 47.5 Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM ET - We are going to stick with the Under trend on NFL Prime Time games when the Broncos take on the Bills Monday Night. NFL Unders have hit at 61% overall for the season and Prime Time games have been especially profitable for bettors at 22-7 this season. In the last four weeks the PT Unders are 11-1 and the SNF and MNF games are 16-3 Under. Denver has some bad overall defensive statistics for the season but one horrendous game against Miami has somewhat skewed those numbers. In their last three games the Broncos D has played well allowing 19 and 9-points to the Chiefs in two games and holding Green Bay to 17. Denver has also made a commitment to their running game with 137-rushing yards per game in their last three games which is 4th most in the NFL. Buffalo allows 4.9 yards per rush which is 30th most in the league so expect a heavy dose of the running game by Denver here which shortens the game. The Bills haven’t looked like the team that was expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season and they’ve seen their scoring dip in recent games. Buffalo is averaging just 22.3PPG in their last three games and 1-point scored for every 16.2 yards gained which is 18th in the NFL over that stretch of games. Buffalo games have totaled 45 or less points in 4 of their last five. Denver and their opponents have combined for 36 or less points in three straight. We will bet Under on MNF.

#262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Seahawks blowout loss in Baltimore last week as the Ravens are playing at another level right now and might be the best team in the league at this point in time. Seattle has a great opportunity back at home against a Washington team basically in tank mode after gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Seattle is 3-1 SU at home this season with a pair of double digit wins over Arizona and Carolina and a 4-point win over Cleveland. The Seahawks have three huge games on deck with division showdowns versus the Rams and Niners with a road date in Dallas after that. That makes this game extremely important for their playoff lives. Washington has some of the worst defensive statistics in the league over the last four games and currently rank 28th in yards per game allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed (5.9), they can’t stop the run or the pass and give up 27.2PPG which is 30th. When it comes to offense the Commanders are nearly as bad ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. Seattle is 11th in yards per play averaging 5.6 and have managed 311.8YPG despite facing 4 defenses that rank top 10 in yards allowed per game. Washington is coming off a low scoring close win over the Patriots but now travels to the West coast to face a much better Seahawks team off a loss. Hawks head coach Pete Carroll has been historically good off a loss with a cover rate of 62%. Lay it with Seattle here under a TD.

#247/248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45 Points - San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers started the season on fire offensively with 5 straight games of 30+ points. In their last three games though they’ve managed just 17 points in each game. They have seen a regression in their yards per play and total yards per game in that three-game span. On the season they have the 4th best Red Zone scoring percentage at 65.63% but in their last three games they’ve dropped to 55.56%. Jacksonville has won 5 straight games and have put up some points this season with the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.1PPG. But a deeper dive inside the numbers shows a slightly different story as the Jags haven’t faced many defenses as good as the Niners. When the Jags faced a Chiefs team allowing 15.9PPG in September they managed just 9-points. San Francisco allows just 17.5PPG (4th) on the season and 5.2YPP which is 10th best in the NFL. The 49ers recently added another edge rusher in Chase Young and are coming off their worst defensive showing of the season in Cincinnati where they allowed 31-points. Jacksonville can also play defense with the 3rd overall ranked DVOA unit in the NFL. The Jaguars allow 79.2 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.6 yards per rush (4th) along with an opponent’s completion percentage of 62.9% which is 11th best in the league. Jacksonville gives up just 19.5PPG which is 9th in the NFL. These two teams don’t typically play fast as the Jags rank 16th in plays per second, the 49er’s are last in the league in that stat category. NFL games tend to stay below the total when two teams come into the game with extra rest, which is the case here. Going back to 2018 the Under is 99-47-1 (68%) in this situation and it’s cashed 23 of 28 times this season. Some windy conditions in Jacksonville will also limit deep throws for both teams. The play here is UNDER the total.

#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis Colts -1 -120 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 9:30AM ET – Game being played in Germany - Obviously, a long travel situation for both teams as this game is being played in Deutsche Bank Park in Germany. The Colts offense is the 7th highest scoring in the league at 25.8PPG and this unit has topped 20+ points in ten straight games. Last week against Carolina the Colts had two pick 6’s by the defense and took a conservative approach with their gameplan and QB Minshew. Minshew had thrown 5 INT’s in three games prior to the Panther game so expect a heavy dose of the running game with Taylor and Moss. New England, particularly QB Mac Jones and the offense have been pathetic this season ranking 24th in DVOA, 27th in YPG gained, 28th in rushing YPG and 21st in passing YPG. The Pats are 31st in the league in scoring at 15PPG. New England doesn’t possess the weapons on offense to exploit the Colts weakness on defense which is their secondary that has been decimated by injuries this season. This is not your old New England Patriots. Since Tom Brady left New England in 2020 the Pats are 27-33 SU. QB Mac Jones is clearly not the answer with a league leading 9 INT’s this season and QBR of 40.3. As a dog he has been horrendous with a 3-16 SU/4-15 ATS record in his career. He has just one cover in his last 14 starts as an underdog. New England has some internal issues with players/coaches and owner/Belichick as rumors are starting to swirl about him getting fired. Favorites in overseas games are 32-10-1 SU and with this number being as low as it is we will back the Colts to get the win and cover.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38.5 Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 8:10 PM ET - The Under trend continues on NFL games in general hitting above 60% on the season, especially the TV night games that are on a 22-7 Under streak. Carolina came out of their bye-week and was expected to be much better offensively, but it hasn’t translated to the field. The Panthers are averaging just 4.0YPP in their last three games and managed just 3.9YPP last week against a Colts defense that is allowing 5.2YPP on the year. The Panthers have put up 15 and 13-points in their last two games and average 17.5 on the season which ranks 26th. Chicago had found some success offensively with QB Fields but with QB Bagent they’ve regressed. Chicago is 19th in total yards per game, 17th in yards per play and score just 20.9PPG which ranks 19th. The Bears are 18th in Yards Per Point, Carolina is 24th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 20 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Carolina allowed 42-points to the Dolphins and Lions in their last four games, but those two offenses are far superior to this Bears unit.

ASA top play 10* on: #475 LA Chargers -3.5 vs NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - This line doesn’t make sense for a few key reasons. The Chargers are sitting at -3.5 points with heavy tickets and public support coming in on the Jets. So why won’t the oddsmakers move this line to -3? Someone knows something that the rest of us don’t. The Jets were coming off a bye prior to last week's game against the Giants so you would think they would’ve been prepared. Not so much as they managed just 251 total yards of offense and punted 11 times in the game. The Giants threw just 14 total passes for minus -9 yards. The Chargers looked good in their win over Chicago, albeit against the Bears. L.A. put up 352 total yards and 5.4YPP with QB Herbert completing 31 of 40 passes with 3 TD’s. The Jets will have a tough time trading points with this Chargers offense as QB Wilson/Jets average just 164 passing yards per game (31st) with a 58% completion percentage which is 30th in the league. New York as a home dog is 8-9 ATS their last seventeen with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Bet the Chargers here.

#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Indianapolis vs Carolina, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game as Indy is the fastest paced team in the NFL & Carolina 15th. Both in the top 6 in offensive snaps per game so plenty of opportunities to score here. Indy’s defense has been terrible over the last month – they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points last 3 weeks and all 3 of those opponents (Jags, Browns, and Saints) rank in bottom half of NFL in offensive efficiency (YPP). On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has been solid the last 3 games since QB Minshew took over for an injured Richardson. In the last 3 games Indianapolis has scored 85 points (28 PPG) and averaged around 400 YPG during that 3 game run. Carolina HC Reich gave up play calling to OC Brown and we expect some new wrinkles moving forward. Carolina QB Young played well last week with 71% completions and 235 yards passing in first win giving the Panthers some positive momentum. They only scored 15 points but had opportunities to score getting shut out on downs at the Houston 2 yard line and settling for 3 FG’s with 2 coming inside Houston’s 20 yard line. In this game we have the 30th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses here both allowing over 28 PPG. Colts games are averaging 54 total points this season and Panther games are averaging 46 total points, both higher than this current total of 44. Looks like perfect weather in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the low 70s, light winds, and no rain. Over is the call.

#455/456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 44 Points - Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Are you sick of all the Unders in the NFL this season? That won’t be the case in this game as we get an ole’ fashion shootout between the Ravens and Seahawks. Baltimore is 7th in scoring this season at 25.3PPG, Seattle is 11th at 24PPG. More importantly, the Ravens are 6th in yards per point offense while the Seahawks are 7th. It takes both teams just 13.9 yards gained to score 1-point. Both teams have impressive defensive numbers too, but those numbers are inflated due to the schedule they’ve faced. Let me rephrase that…the quarterbacks each team has faced. Take a look at Baltimore’s schedule and the QB’s they’ve gone against. Arizona/Dobbs, Titans/Tannehill, Steelers/Pickett, Browns/Thompson-Robinson, Colts/Minshew, Bengals/Burrows (injured at the time), Texans/Stroud. The only quality QB they’ve faced is Jared Goff and the Lions. The same can be said about the Seahawks when you look at their schedule. The only two good QB’s they’ve faced were Goff and Stafford and the Lions/Rams put up 31 and 30 points against this defense. Seattle and Geno Smith are capable of hitting a big play or two with an offense that is 7th in the league in yards per play (5.8) and yards per completion at 10.3. Baltimore is 9th in yards per play at 5.8YPP and 10th in yards per completion at 10.4. Baltimore owns the 4th most efficient offense in the NFL, the Seahawks are 8th. NFL games are averaging 43.6PPG but this game will not be average when it comes to offense. Bet Over.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 or -125 money line over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM – Game being played in Germany - Huge game with playoff implications in Germany on Sunday morning. These 2 teams currently are sitting in the #1 and #2 playoff spots in the AFC and this game could go a long way to deciding home field advantage. Both teams are 6-2 on the year but we like KC in this one coming off a rare loss. The Chiefs were rolled at division rival Denver last Sunday 24-9, however they outgained the Broncos by more than 1.0 YPP but had 5 turnovers in the game on 11 total drives. That isn’t going to get you a win in the NFL. On top of that, QB Mahomes had an illness and nearly didn’t play so he was nowhere near 100%. Now we get KC off an embarrassing performance and they are a very good bounce back team under Andy Reid. In fact, in his head coaching career, Reid’s teams are 21-10 ATS (22-9 SU) as a favorite of 7 or fewer points off a loss. Miami has beaten a bunch of bottom tier NFL teams so far this season (Giants, Patriots (twice), Panthers, etc…) but the 2 good teams they’ve faced have beat the Fins handily. The Bills rolled this team by 28 points and the Eagles topped them by 14. They rank #1 DVOA offensively, which isn’t surprising, but their defense and special teams both rank outside the top 20 DVOA. Speaking of DVOA, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that ranks inside the top 5 in overall, offense, defense, and special teams. KC has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 2020 season and we don’t see that happening here. With this line set under a FG, we like the Chiefs on Sunday in Germany.

ASA top play 10* on: #310 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:15 PM ET - The NFL continues to give us these miserable Thursday night games and tonight certainly fits the bill with the 3-4 Titans and 4-3 Steelers. We are on the Steelers at home off a home loss. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way, the Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. This isn’t as significant as you may think considering their schedule includes: 49ers, Browns, Ravens and Jaguars (combined 21-10 SU record). Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in most key categories but a healthy QB Trubisky should inject some life into this offense. Let’s face it, he can’t be worse than Kenny Pickett who has the 29th worst QB rating in the league, completing 61% of his attempts for just 1,330 total yards with 5 TD’s to 4 INT’s. The Titan’s defense is 22nd in yards per play allowed 20th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Don’t be fooled by Tennessee’s newfound rookie QB Levis who had a few big passing plays which accounted for most of his 238 passing yards last week. We are betting he struggles here on a short week, playing in a hostile environment and facing a Steelers defense averaging 3.1 sacks per game (7th most in NFL). In the last ten years Pittsburgh has the 5th best home record in the NFL at 59-29-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9PPG. We will lay the short number of -3 or less on Pittsburgh.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 POINTS LV Raiders at Detroit Lions, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the NFL TV night game Under trend will continue here with this non-conference showdown between the Raiders and Lions. On that note, heading into this past weekend, Unders were 22-11 this season when non-conference teams squared off. These two teams are two of the slower paced teams in the NFL with LV running a play every 28.8 seconds (21st), while the Lions run a play every 29.5 seconds (27th). Scoring is down in the NFL this season at 43.4PPG with Unders cashing at roughly 60%. The Raiders have the second worst offense in terms of efficiency and haven’t had any success running the ball or throwing it. LV is 27th in total yards per game, last in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. It will be tough to run in this game against a Lions defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed a 9th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup as the Lions rank top 11 in total yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in passing yards and 8th in completion percentage. The Raiders aren’t great at stopping the run so expect the Lions to focus on that aspect of their offense. We don’t expect the Lions to put QB Goff in jeopardy with Raider’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (6.5 sacks) on the field which will limit explosive plays by Detroit. Las Vegas is scoring just 16PPG and only one of their games this season has finished with more points than this total. Detroit games have finished with less than 46 total points in four of their seven games.

#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These 2 played a few weeks ago in KC and the final score was Chiefs 19, Broncos 8. We see a similar type game on Sunday. Bad weather is expected in Denver with high probability of snow and high temps in the 20’s. Not great for a solid offensive output. In their game on October 12th neither team lit it up offensively with KC putting up 389 total yards and Denver just 197. The KC defense has been high level this season not allowing a single opponent to top 21 points. They rank in the top 10 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up only 15 PPG (2nd in the NFL). Their overall defense ranks 5th DVOA and 6th EPA. They’ll be facing a Denver offense that has scored 21 or less in 5 of their 7 games this season. Their last 2 games the Broncos have scored 27 total points vs KC & Green Bay. The Denver defense ranks dead last in many categories, however much of that is skewed due to their game @ Miami where they allowed 70 points, over 700 total yards, and 10.2 YPP. If we subtract their game vs Miami, the Broncos are allowing 24 PPG which is much better than their current number of 31 PPG allowed. They are trending up as well allowing 36 total points in the last 2 games vs KC & GB. We don’t expect many offensive snaps here with 2 of the slower paced teams in the NFL – KC ranks 25th in plays per second and Denver 23rd. Under is the play.

#262 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Bills last week but will come crashing back down to earth against this Dolphins team. The Pats are 2-5 SU this season and 3-7 SU their last ten games. One of their losses earlier this season was at home to this Dolphins team 17-24 as a +1 point home underdog. Miami dominated that game by more than the final score as they averaged 6.4 yards per play compared to 4.1YPP for the Pats. The interesting note to this game is that the Patriots defensive scheme in the first meeting featured their best end rusher in Judon and best cover corner in Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was used to blanket Dolphins WR Hill in the first meeting and held the All-Pro to 40 yards on 5 receptions. Without those two defenders we expect the #1 rated Miami offense to explode for a huge number in this one. Miami is 1st in yards per game at 462, 1st in yards per play at 7.9, 1st in rushing and 1st in passing. Wait, did we mention they average 34.3PPG which is also the highest number in the NFL. New England ranks in the bottom third in the NFL in most key offensive categories including scoring at 14.4PPG. Miami is coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV to the Eagles and will pound their AFC East rival by 2 or more TD’s this weekend.

#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it.

#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday.