PAGE_HEADER

ASA WNBA play on OVER 163.5 Indiana Fever at NY Liberty, 7:30pm ET - No Caitlyn Clark, no problem. The Fever have endured enough games without Clark to still manage offensively against the Liberty tonight. Not to mention, Clark is 2/33 from beyond the arc in her last 6 road games. New York will be looking for some payback in this game and will put up a big number offensively against the Fever. The Fever bounced the Liberty a month ago 102-88 on their home court. The last four times these teams have met in New York, the Liberty have scored 104, 91, 101 and 90-points. New York is the fastest paced team in the W and will push the tempo. Indiana is 7th in pace but also 7th in Defensive Net rating. The Fever rank 3rd in Offensive Net rating, the Liberty are 2nd. 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has gone OVER the total including both meetings this season. Bet OVER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Atlanta Dream at NY Liberty, 3pm ET - We recently bet and won with an OVER wager on the Dream vs. Fever and today we have a very similar showdown between Atlanta and New York with the same O/U number. It’s another OVER wager for us! These teams have met twice this season in June and produced 167 and 171 total points. New York is the fastest paced team in the league with the 2nd best EFG% and Offensive Net rating in the league. Atlanta is 3rd in the W with a Net rating of 106.4. The Dream don’t shoot it as well as the Liberty but they do it with volume ranking 1st in field goal attempts. Atlanta is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league and rank 4th in 2nd chance points. The Dream are putting up 84.3ppg on the season, New York is scoring 86.7ppg. Atlanta has topped 90-points in three of their last five games. The Liberty will dictate tempo on their home court and the Dream love to get out in transition and shoot 3’s. It all adds up to another high scoring game in this rivalry.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 167 Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever, 7:30pm ET - We should get plenty of possessions in this game and enough offense to push this game OVER the total of 167. Granted, we have lost some value in this O/U number as it opened much lower, but our model has this particular game resulting in at least 171 total points. Indiana is 4th in the league in Net rating and has an EFG% of 52.5%. Atlanta is better offensively with a Net rating of 106.4. The Dream don’t shoot it as well as the Fever but they do it with volume ranking 1st in field goal attempts. Atlanta is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. The Dream are putting up 84.4ppg on the season, Indiana is scoring 82.4ppg. Atlanta’s offense has really started to click with three of their last four games topping 90-points. Indiana is coming off a poor shooting game against the Valkyries, but Golden State is a top-tier defense, the Dream are not. There is some bad blood between these two teams and we expect both offenses to shine.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 163.5 Minnesota Lynx at LA Sparks, 3pm ET - Let’s get another day game O/U winner with this UNDER the number bet on the Lynx vs Sparks matchup. In a recent meeting between these two teams, they produced just 148 total points. The two teams combined for just 121 total field goal attempts, well below the league average of 134. Minnesota’s defense has been outstanding, holding six straight opponents to 79 or less points. The Lynx have held five of their last ten foes to 68 or less points. Minnesota has the #1 rated defense in the league in Net rating and give up the fewest points per game at 74.3. The Sparks are not great defensively, but the Lynx play slow so that’s a plus. L.A. is 8th in offensive Net rating, 6th in EFG%. Minnesota is off a game/loss yesterday and playing without rest here so they may not be as sharp offensively as they typically are. In any case we see a very similar total output to the previous meeting of 148.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Golden State Valkyries at Indiana Fever, 12pm ET - Both teams play at a slow pace (Indiana 9th, Golden State 10th) and boast strong defenses, with Golden State’s third-ranked defensive rating (97.6) and Indiana’s fourth-ranked DNR. The Fever are particularly strong defending the 3PT line (1st 26.1% opponent 3P%). GST has the best FG% defense in the league allowing opponents to hit just 39.9% on the season. Recent trends show the Fever (11-8 to UNDER) and Valkyries 11-7, 8-2 when the total ≥160. In the only other meeting this season these two teams combined for 165 total points but both shot above expectations in that game. The defenses for both teams and a slow tempo keeps this game from going over the total.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - The Dallas Wings will be without their second-leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale (16.8 PPG), due to a thumb injury, severely hampering their offensive output. DiJonai Carrington (doubtful, rib injury) adds to Dallas’ backcourt woes, forcing reliance on rookie guards JJ Quinerly and Aziaha James, who scored 15 points each in a low-scoring 79-71 win over Washington. Dallas’ recent roster moves, including the return of centers Teaira McCowan and Luisa Geiselsoder, signal a shift to a slower, inside-out style, as emphasized by coach Chris Koclanes. This approach aligns with their improved defensive net rating of 100.3 over the last five games, a significant step up for a team ranked 10th in DNR league-wide. Phoenix, coming off an 84-81 loss to Las Vegas, boasts the WNBA’s fourth-best defensive net rating of 98.5 and force 16.7 turnovers per game. Their ability to disrupt Dallas’ depleted guard play should keep scoring in check. While the June 11 matchup saw both teams shoot efficiently (Phoenix 50% FG, Dallas 43%) and combine for 173 points, Dallas’ missing key scorers and Phoenix’s elite defense suggest a lower-scoring, physical game.

ASA play on OVER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - This number opened 167.5 and was bet down with news that Caitlyn Clark is still not 100% and is listed as questionable tonight. With or without Clark we like OVER the number in this one. Indiana recently played in Golden State which resulted in 165 total points being scored. The Valkyries are similar to the Lynx in two key categories, pace of play (slow) and defense (1st Lynx, 3rd Valkyries). The one big difference is offense as the Lynx are 3rd in ONR overall and have the best EFG% at 55.6%. Another great comparison is the Lynx recent game against Seattle who has similar styles of play to the Fever and that game finished with 178 total points. Seattle/Fever rank 7th, 8th in Defensive Net rating, 2nd and 4th in Offensive net rating and 2nd and 3rd in pace of play. The point we are making is that we have a solid recent reference points for each team against similar opponents to predict this outcome. Last year two of the three meetings between these two teams finished with 170 or more total points being scored. The nature of this being a high profile game should result in a faster pace and more scoring opportunities for both teams. The Fever allow 37.3ppg in the paint this season which is 3rd most in the league which means Collier should feast on Indiana’s interior defense. Minnesota is great defensively but the Fever have the 3rd best team FG% at 46.2%. We expect plenty of points and should see this game get into the 170’s rather easily.

ASA WNBA play on Under 165.5 Total Points – Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics, 8pm ET - The Mystics average 79.7 points per game this season, while allowing 80.1, and over their last 10 games, they’ve scored 80.0 points while conceding 81.1. The Wings score 81.6 points per game but have a poor defensive mark, allowing 85.6. However, in their last six games, the Wings defense has been considerably better, ranking 5th in DNR at 101.1. Notably, the Mystics’ recent three-point struggles (5.2 makes at 33.3% over their last 10 games vs. 5.8 at 35.2% for the season) and Dallas’ back-to-back fatigue could limit offensive efficiency. Their June 22 matchup totaled 179 points (91-88 in OT), but regular-time scoring was 169 and barely over this number with Washington having a full roster and Dallas not playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back. In each teams last six games they have played at the 8th and 9th slowest pace in the league and rating 9th and 11th in ONR (Offensive Net Rating). We don’t see these two teams scoring more than 165 total points.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 LA Sparks vs. Indiana Fever – 7 PM ET - The Fever Offense: Averaging 84 PPG (2nd highest number in the W), led by Caitlin Clark (18.2 PPG), Kelsey Mitchell (17.9 PPG) and Aliyah Boston (15.9PPG). They rank 4th in both pace (96.34) and Offense net rating. The Sparks Offense: Averaging 81.3 PPG, with Kelsey Plum (20.4 PPG), Dearica Hamby (16.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and Rickea Jackson (12.4 PPG) driving their scoring. Their games have gone OVER the total in 9 of 15 (60%) games this season. The key here is the Sparks play at the 3rd fastest rate in the league and will gladly play up-tempo with the Fever. The defensive weaknesses for both teams can be exploited by the others. The Sparks allow 87.3 PPG; Fever allow 79.3 PPG but have struggled against strong interior scorers like Hamby. With plenty of possessions and capable scorers on both sides we expect a game well into the 170's if not 180’s.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 156.5 Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun, 7pm ET - We like a low scoring game tonight between the Mercury and Sun and won’t be surprised if this game stays in the 140’s. Connecticut is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days so fatigue becomes a factor. Phoenix is rested but has a much bigger game tomorrow night against the Liberty, so as a big favorite here, may call off the dogs late in this game. Phoenix is an average team offensively ranking 7th in Net rating, the Sun are the worst offensive team in the league ranking 13th in ONR. Connecticut has scored 71 or less points in 3 straight games, 4 of their last five and 7 of their last ten games. Phoenix is 4th in Defensive Net rating at 99.6 and have held 7 of their last ten opponents to 80 or less points. Connecticut plays at the second slowest rate in the league, the Mercury are 6th in pace, but again, schedule should have them playing slower than normal tonight. Scoring is down slightly this season in the WNBA and we don’t see these two teams threatening that 155 number tonight.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 155.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 10 pm ET - We are grabbing the extra value with a contrarian bet on the OVER in this game after the line move. The Sparks score their points by playing fast with the 3rd fastest pace of play in the WNBA. They are slightly below average in terms of Offensive Net rating. Seattle plays at the second slowest pace in the W, but have the 2nd best ONR at 109.5. Seattle has the 2nd best EFG% at 55.6, LA checks in 6th in EFG% at 51.3. The Storm are 7th in Defensive Net rating at 103.9, the Sparks are 11th at 112.0. Seattle is coming off an extremely low scoring game against Golden State 70-76 but the Storm had scored 94, 89 and 83-points offensively in their three previous games. LA has been a dead-over team with a 6-1-1 O/U record in their last eight games. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 177, 172, 172 and 174 total points. The move is wrong here…BET OVER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164.5 Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces, 7pm ET - We expect plenty of points in this one with our model projecting 168.3 total points. LV will be without A’ja Wilson again but they have three other double-digit scores to pick up the slack including Young and Lloyd who are coming off 28 and 21-point games against Dallas. Phoenix could also see the return of a key component today in Kahleah Copper who averaged 21.1ppg last season. The Mercury also recently got a boost with the return of Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack. Games involving the Aces this season have averaged 166 total points per game which is above the league average for a game of 162. Games involving the Mercury have averaged 164 total points per game and that is without two of their leading scorers missing the majority of those games. Las Vegas pushes the tempo with the 2nd fastest pace of play in the league, the Mercury are 8th, but in their last three games they’ve played at a faster rate. These teams have had some turnover from last season but the four meetings a year ago finished with 169, 186, 202 and 176 total points being scored. We expect a higher scoring game again today!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 168.5 Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces – 10pm ET - These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league which means we will get a high possession game between these two teams. LV averages 96.98 possessions per game (3rd), the Wings average 96.82 (4th). Neither team will face much opposition defensively as the Wings have the 11th rated DNR at 109.3, the Aces have been a major disappointment on that end of the court with the 9th rated DNR at 103.5. The Aces allow opponents to make 47.3% of their FGA’s (10th), Dallas rank 11th in that same defensive category allowing foes to hit 46.7% of their attempts. The Wings give up nearly 90ppg on the season, while the Aces allow 83.9ppg, which ranks in the bottom 4 of the W. Las Vegas will be without reigning MVP Wilson in this game but they still have capable scorers in Gray and Young who should step up with Wilson sidelined. The Wings got rookie PG Bueckers back from injury in their last game who promptly scored 35-points in her return. Strangely, this line opened much lower than the current number and was bet up after the news of Wilson’s injury. We will back the move and BET OVER!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 167.5 LA Sparks at Las Vegas Aces, 10pm ET - These teams recently met in Las Vegas and produced 177 total points. That game went OVER the number of 167. Clearly the oddsmakers feel they were right with that number just over a week ago and are baiting bettors to play OVER in this game. In that game, both teams shot well above season averages with the Sparks hitting 47% overall and 29% from the 3-point line. Las Vegas sot 46% overall and 48% from Deep. There were 136 field goal attempts which is slightly higher than the league average of 133.8. We expect a regression in shooting tonight as the Sparks rank 5th in the league in FG% at 43.5%. The Aces are the 2nd worst shooting team in the W at 39.2%. After being the 5th best defensive team in the league the Aces have slipped to 8th this season. They are coming off a humbling loss to Golden State in which they allowed 95-points to the expansion Valkyries. The Sparks have had some issues on the defensive end of the court ranking 10th in DNR, but this is a big rivalry and they are coming off a solid showing against GST in which they allowed 78-points in regulation. Play contrarian here and put yourself of the UNDER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - We expect plenty of field goal attempts, made shots and points in this Western Conference showdown. Both teams could be getting key contributors back tonight as rookie Paige Bueckers is projected to play for the Wings and Alyssa Thomas could be in the lineup for the Mercury. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 97.08 possessions per game. The Mercury are around league average in pace at 96.54. Phoenix is 4th in the league in Defensive Net rating but the Wings are 3rd to last in DNR. The Wings are the highest scoring team in the league at 81.6ppg, Phoenix is11th at 78.6, but let’s not forget they have been without All-WNBA player Thomas and here 15.2ppg for the past 5 games. In the last four meetings between these two teams, one has scored 97+ points and the O/U is 4-0 with the games averaging 192.5ppg. 

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 154.5 Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams so they are very familiar with the others style of play. The first two games both stayed UNDER with 147 and 140 total points. That has been a trend for this series as 7 straight meetings have stayed below the posted O/U. Seattle is the 2nd slowest paced team in the W, the Mercury are around league average. Both are very good defensively with the Mercury having the 3rd best Defensive Net rating in the league, the Storm are 6th. Neither is great offensively with the Storm ranking 8th in Offensive rating the Mercury are 10th. These are two of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league so neither generate many second-chance opportunities. This is a low number at 154 but our model is projecting 150.3 total points. We agree and will bet UNDER here.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings, 9:30pm ET - Defense, or the lack thereof is the driving factor of tonight’s wager. Dallas is 11th (out of 13) in the WNBA in Defensive Net rating at 107.1, the Sparks are 10th at 104.3. The Wings have allowed 83+ points in every game but one this season and allow teams to hit 45.6% (10th) of their FG attempts and 37.8% of their 3’s (11th). The Sparks D ranks 8th in both overall team FG% and 3PT% defense. LA has allowed 85+ points in 5 of their eight games this season. The Wings are the 2nd fastest paced team in the league and the Sparks play around league average. Both teams should have solid shooting nights with plenty of possessions to push this OVER 170+ total points.   

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Golden State Valkryies at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - These two teams have been UNDER plays this season with a combined 3-10-1 combined UNDER record in 2025. It adds up as the Valkyrie are the worst offense in the league, while Phoenix is better, they aren’t great. GST has an Offensive Net rating of 91.2, which is the second worst number in the W. Phoenix ranks 10th in ONR at 96.3. Golden State is 13th in overall shooting at 36.8%, also last in 3PT% at 27.5%. Phoenix is currently 9th in both FG% and 3PT% shooting. Both teams average less than 78ppg and in this scenario we don’t see either topping 75-points in this game. Bet UNDER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 163.5 Phoenix Mercury at LA Sparks, 6pm ET - The oddsmakers have set a number on this game that is equal to the league average for WNBA games this season. To cash this bet we essentially need these teams to play ‘average’. These teams have met once this season and produced 175 total points. The game featured 135 total field goal attempts, which is exactly league average. Neither team shot especially well in that first meeting either and they still produced enough points to cash the Over easily. Phoenix hasn’t scored a ton of point per game this season but they’ve also faced 4 of the leagues top defenses. LA has allowed 82+ points in 5 of seven games this season, 88+ in four of those. Our model is projecting 174.6 total points and we agree with the number.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 173 Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams with the first meeting finishing with 189 total points. We don’t see those results changing here, even though the Wings are without #1 pick Paige Bueckers. There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113. They have allowed 91+ points in all five games and two of those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points two games ago then put up 92 versus the Sky. Dallas has the 4th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 107.3 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 4th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky, 8pm ET - There isn’t a defense worse than the Sky’s in the WNBA this season as they have the worst Defensive Net Rating in the league at 113.6. They have allowed 91+ points in all four games and two those came against average offenses of the Sparks and Mercury. The Wings had a breakout offensive game against the Sun with 109 points last time out and rank 5th best in Offensive Net Rating on the season (with two games against the Lynx this season on their resume). Dallas isn’t much better defensively than the Sky with a DNR of 105.4 so the limited Sky’s offense should score here too. Chicago plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the W, the Wings are 5th fastest. This all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight between the Wings/Sky. Bet OVER!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164 Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics, 7:30pm ET - Do you find it strange that Caitlyn Clark won’t be in the lineup tonight and yet the OVER was bet up on this game? The line opened 157.5, was bet up as high as 164 and is not fluctuating back and forth between 163-164. The ‘Joe’s’ money pushed this number up and now the ‘Pro’s’ money is coming in on the UNDER. Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a little over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. The Fever play at the fastest pace in the league but that is with Caitlyn Clark pushing the tempo on every possession. Clark is out tonight so we expect the Fever to play at a more deliberate pace and focus on getting Boston as many touches as possible in the paint. Washington plays slower at 96.36 possessions per game (7th) and has problems scoring at 78.4ppg (10th). Indiana has been much better defensively than expected this season with a DNR of 93.2, 3rd best number in the W. Washington ranks 7th in DNR at 98.5. The Mystics have put up 74, 72 and 62 points in their last three games in three straight UNDERS.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 164.5 Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun, 7PM ET - Scoring is currently down in the W with games averaging a touch over 160ppg. That number is down from last year’s average of 164.2ppg. We don’t see these two offensively challenged teams getting to 160 or more total points. The Sun are second to last in the league in Offensive Net rating at 87.5 with the worst eFG% of 41.4%. The Sun are shooting just .376% overall and .263% from Deep. Dallas isn’t much better. The Wings are 8th in ONR at 98.2 with an eFG% of .442 which ranks 10h worst (out of 13 teams) in the W. Dallas hit’s just .292% of their 3-point attempts and shoots .397% overall. Defensively, both teams are allowing over 83ppg on the season, but both have faced some of the league’s best offenses which has inflated those numbers. We expect a game in the 150’s here. Bet UNDER!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 157.5 Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a rematch from the season opener in Phoenix which the Mercury won 81-59 as a +5-point underdog. The game stayed well below the O/U of 158 with 140 total points being scored. There is no reason to expect different results in tonight’s game. Seattle was one of the worst shooting teams in the W a year ago and in the first meeting they hit just 33% overall and18% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 for the Storm they faced a Dallas team that isn’t great defensively yet and shot better at 41% but the two teams combined for 150 total points. Phoenix is coming off a higher scoring game against the Sparks who had the 3rd worst Defensive Net Rating a year ago. The Mercury are 12th in FGA’s on the season and play at the 2nd slowest pace in the league. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the W. Seattle was a top 4 defense a year ago and playing with revenge so don’t expect the Mercury to get into the 80’s again here. With a slow tempo, one solid defense and a poor shooting team involved we don’t see this game getting to 160.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 162.5 LA Sparks at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - Let’s start with an ‘average’ W game a season ago finished with roughly 164 total points per game. This O/U is slightly lower than that, but our model suggests 158.7 total points being scored. It’s very early in the season and both teams have completely different identities from last year, but both have played slow to start the season ranking 11th and 12th in pace of play. They are both near average in Offensive Net Rating, but the defenses have been well above average with the Sparks ranking 4th in DNR, the Mercury are 2nd. Phoenix held Seattle to 33% shooting overall and 18% from beyond the arc in their season opener. The Sparks allowed the Lynx to score 89-points in their last game, but the Lynx are arguably the best team in the W. Los Angeles had just 60 total FGA’s in that game and shot above expectations to get to 75-points. At the end of the day this O/U is set at essentially an ‘average’ WNBA game but that won’t be the case with a slower pace and solid defenses. We like Under!

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET - Last season WNBA games averaged 164 total points per game. Last season these two teams were 6th (Dallas) and 7th (Seattle) in Offensive Net Rating but we expect a regression from both teams offensively early on. The Storm traded away their leading scorer from a season ago Jewell Lloyd and were already a poor shooting team with an EFG% of 47.8% (9th). Dallas made a youth movement and traded away several Vets and landed the #1 pick in the draft Paige Bueckers. Dallas was one of the worst teams in the league a season ago, but new head coach Chris Koclanes has put a major focus on defense. They also landed DiJonai Carrington, a defensive specialist. Seattle was 4th in the league a year ago in Defensive Net Rating at 96.4 and should be close to that level again in 2025. Seattle was the worst 3PT shooting team in the W a year ago at 28.8% and if Game 1 of this season is any indication of how they are going to shoot this season from deep, it’s going to be worse. Seattle went 3 of 17 from beyond the arc in their game against Phoenix and shot just 33% overall. We don’t see this game getting into the 160’s.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 169 Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky, 3 pm ET - Let’s start with our base O/U numbers from last season. WNBA games averaged right around 164 total points per game last season. Indiana was the 3rd highest scoring team in the league at 85ppg and played at the second fastest pace. The Fever were terrible defensively with a DNR of 107.5, 2nd highest number in the league. The Sky weren’t much better defensively with a DNR of 103.5 (8th). Chicago’s offense struggled at times last season, specifically shooting, with an EFG% of 45.7% (11th). The Sky should be better in that department with their off-season additions and with growth in second year players Reese and Cardoso. In the four meetings between these two rivals last season they produced total points of 181, 175, 174 and 141. The Fever are going to be much better offensively this season with their new additions and the Sky will be forced to keep up in this one. We like OVER.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 159.5 NY Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, Game 4 Friday 8 PM ET - We are going to stay with the Under in Game 4 of this series after cashing that bet in Game 3. In Game 1 these two teams totaled 166 total points in regulation, but the Lynx shot well above expectations. The number of field goal attempts in regulation (140 FGA) were only slightly higher than the regular season average of 136. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 121 FGA’s, well below standard, which resulted in 146 total points. In G3 there were 136 field goal attempts (league average) and despite above average shooting from beyond the arc (Liberty 40%, Lynx 43%) the game stayed Under. In fact, In the 4Q of the game, one or both failed to reach 20 points. Let’s not forget these two teams are two of the best three in the league defensively and are both #1 when playing road (NY) and home (Lynx). New York has a defensive net rating on the road of 94.7 (1st), while the Lynx have a home defensive net rating of 90.9 (1st). In two meetings on this court these two teams have produced 157 and 151 total points. We expect both defenses to dominate in a slower paced game and expect this one to stay well Under the number.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 160.5 NY Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - Both of these teams will not get into the 80’s in this game and our model is projecting just 157 total points being scored. In Game 1 these two teams totaled 166 total points in regulation, but the Lynx shot well above expectations. The number of field goal attempts in regulation (140 FGA) were only slightly higher than the regular season average of 136. In Game 2 these two teams combined for 121 FGA’s, well below standard, which resulted in 146 total points. Let’s not forget these two teams are two of the best three in the league defensively and are both #1 when playing road (NY) and home (Lynx). New York has a defensive net rating on the road of 94.7 (1st), while the Lynx have a home defensive net rating of 90.9 (1st). When these two teams met on this court earlier this season they combined for 151 total points. We expect both defenses to dominate in a slower paced game and expect this one to stay well Under the number.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 152.5 Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx Tues, 8 PM ET - We were on the Under in Game 4 and lost. It’s interesting that Game 4 goes Over the number by 20 points and the oddsmakers lowered the number for tonight’s game from 153.5 to 151.5. We are betting on a regression from the last two games and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. In Game 4 these two teams attempted just 126 field goals, well below the season average of 136. The Sun shot ridiculously well at 54% overall and 53% from Deep. Minnesota hit 47% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering these two teams are two of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. With this being an elimination game, we like both defenses to shine and the offenses to struggle. With another slower pace expected this game does not reach 150+.

ASA play on UNDER 153.5 Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun, 5 PM ET - First off, another boneheaded move by the WNBA execs who would schedule these playoff games on NFL Sunday. OK, well on to this game and how we see it shaping up. We are betting on a regression from the last game and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering the Sun are one of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. In Game 3 these two teams played at a below average pace with 134 FGA’s (league average 136). The Sun have stayed Under the total in 4 of their last five at home and off that home loss we like them to ratchet up their defense in this one and the Lynx are always good on that end of the court. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164 New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces – Game 3 Friday 9:30 PM ET - This O/U number has steadily crept up from Game 1 which started at 162.5 but the Game 3 number hasn’t been adjusted high enough according to our model. In the opener of this series these two teams combined for 164 total points. In Game 2 they finished with 172. In G1 these two teams combined for an abnormally low number of field goal attempts at 126 (league ave. this season was 136) and still managed 164 total points. In Game 2 we saw the pace of play tick up with the two teams combining for 136 FGA’s. With the Aces down 0-2 in the series they will want to do what they do best at home, play fast and transition basketball. The Aces were the 2nd fastest team in the league when playing at home and the Liberty were 4th fastest on the road. These were two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league and ranked 1st and 2nd in Offensive Net rating. They were 2nd (Aces) and 3rd (Liberty) in EFG%. The last ten meetings between these two teams on this court have averaged 174.6ppg. We expect a high scoring game here and are on the Over.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 160.5 Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30PM ET - This O/U number has been adjusted up slightly compared to Game 1 which had an O/U of 158.5. In that game these two teams combined for 197 total points. We don’t expect that many points again as both teams shot well above season standards with the Mercury hitting 37/74 FG’s overall at 50% and 14/27 from the 3PT line or 52%. Minnesota also had a great shooting night at 49% overall and 42% from Deep. The Lynx also made 24/25 free throws. There will be a regression here in both teams shooting, but the pace of play will be high again (143 FGA’s in G1) and they’ll score enough to go over this number. These two teams have combined for 160+ points in 4 of five meetings this season. The Mercury have an EFG% of 50.3%, the Lynx are at 51.8%. Since the Olympic break the Lynx have played outstanding basketball with a 12-2 record their last 14 games and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in the league at 106.6. Phoenix has struggled defensively this entire season (DNR 9th worst) and their only chance to beat this Lynx team is to play up-tempo and outscore them. During the regular season, an average WNBA game would have 136 FGA’s and 164 total points. In other words, all we need is an average game here and we cash the Over.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 159.5 Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - We are getting a bargain price with this Over/Under number and will capitalize with a bigger play on the Over. These two teams produced just 145 total points in game 1 which has impacted today’s number and has bettors on the Under. The facts are that game should have gone Over this number rather easily. The two teams combined for 137 field goal attempts which is around league average for the entire season. WNBA games averaged 163.4 total points per game on 136.6 FGA’s. In Game 1 the Aces started very slow with A’Ja Wilson going 1 for 8 with Las Vegas missing 16 of their 18 field goal attempts. With the slow start these two teams had 80-points at halftime on their way to 160. After 3Q’s these two teams had 129 total points which had them on pace for 172. Then shit hit the fan and the Storm couldn’t buy a basket. Seattle missed all 13 FGA’s in the 4th quarter and only scored 2-points. You read that right, 2-points in an entre quarter. With this being an elimination game, the Storm won’t quietly and will foul late if needed. Seattle is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and the Aces are 4th so we know we will get plenty of possessions in this one. Las Vegas is the 2nd best team in the WNBA in Offensive Net rating, the Storm are 7th. If this is an average paced game, with average shooting, it goes Over the number easily.

ASA WNBA play on Over 171.5 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 7:30 PM ET - The Wings are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. Their atrocious defense will be even worse tonight against the Storm. Dallas allows 1.135-points per possession, most in the WNBA a historically high number. In comparison, the next worse defense is the Indiana Fever who allow 1.091PPP. While Seattle is much better defensively, both are relatively even offensively with the Storm owning an Offensive Net rating of 101.9 compared to the Wings at 101.5. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 13 of their last eighteen games and 6 straight. Seattle has scored 85+ points in 5 of their last seven games and have put up 92+ in all three meetings with the Wings this season. The Over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Lastly, we know we will get a fast paced game here with a ton of possessions as the Storm rank 4th in pace, the Wings are 1st. Bet the Over.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 178.5 NY Liberty at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - The betting indicators on this game have us on the Under with more tickets bet on the Over, yet more money is on Under. The public has jumped in on the Over here as these two teams just met on Tuesday and produced 196 total points. There were a few outliers in that game though as the Liberty shot 54% overall and 55% from beyond the arc which are both well above season averages of 45% and 35%. Dallas hit 47% overall which is above their season average of 45% and somewhat surprising considering the Liberty have the 2nd best FG% defense at .43% allowed. An average WNBA game has 137 field goal attempts which results in 164 total points. In the game the other day the field goal attempts were 142 so not drastically higher than league average, yet they scored 196-points. The two previous games between these two teams this season resulted in 168 and 150 total points. We don’t expect these teams to shoot as well again tonight which will keep this game from going Over the number. UNDER is the call here.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 174.5 LA Sparks at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This line opened at 170 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 174.5 on the total. With the public “all over” the Caitlyn Clark/Fever (pun intended) we will grab the value and play Under. The average total points scored in a WNBA game this season is slightly more than 163. Indiana is one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 83.8PPG but the Sparks score the 3rd fewest at 78.8PPG. The Fever have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.054PPP, but the Sparks OEFF is .989 or second to last in the W. Indiana is not known for their defense, with an overall Net rating of 106.8 but since the Olympic break they been significantly better with a DNR of 101.9. Los Angeles has been slightly better defensively since the break also. Indiana is playing lights-out with a 6-1 SU record since the break and have clawed back into playoff contention. They have played 4 of their last five on the road, two straight away, and may relax a little tonight with a big game on deck versus Minnesota. LA is playing for the #1 pick in the draft and just trying to get through the season. The Spark have scored 74 or less points in 5 of their last eight games. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they have combined for 170 and 151 total points. We like the UNDER in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165.5 Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET  - Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. Las Vegas is the fastest paced team for the overall season, but in their last six games after the Olympic break they rank 9th in pace of play. They are averaging 7 less PPG in their last six games compared to their season average too. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they combined for 162 and 154 total points. Combined in the last ten games for each of these two teams they have only gone Over in 6 of 20 games. The value in the number dictates and Under wager here.

ASA play on UNDER 157.5 Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - These teams met in Atlanta on August 16th, fresh off the Olympic break, with the Dream winning 83-81 and the Over 156.5 cashing. The pace of play was slower as we expect to be the case in this game, but both teams shot above season standards resulting in 164 total points. In the only other meeting this season in Seattle these two combined for 151 points. Seattle has struggled offensively since the break with the second-to-last Offensive Net Rating in the W at 93.1, while scoring just 77.8PPG. Seattle is one of the better defensive teams in the league ranking 4th in DNR while giving up just 78.3PPG. Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings and we are betting that trend continues.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 180.5 Las Vegas Storm at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - This is a big number, but we expect enough points by both teams to eclipse this O/U. In two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 176 and 189 total points. Las Vegas themselves scored a combined 199 in the two games. The Aces are the highest scoring team in the league at 87.3PPG. They are also the fastest paced team in the W. Las Vegas held the top spot in the league last season in Defensive Net Rating at 97.7, but this season they rank 5th in DNR at 100.7. The Aces are giving up 82.9PPG on the season (7th most) after allowing 80.3PPG in 2023. The Wings defense is the worst in the league in too many categories to list. Dallas is allowing 90.2PPG, have the 12th rated FG% defense as foes hit 47.3% against them. The Wings are last in the W in Defensive Net Rating at 110.5. Dallas has allowed over 100+ points in 5 of their last ten games and surrendered 110 to the Sparks in their last game. L.A. is one of the worst offensive teams in the league so what does that mean Vegas will score. Lastly, both teams prefer to play fast with the Aces ranking 1st in pace of play, the Wings are 3rd. In the two meetings this season both games were well above the league average in field goal attempts. Don’t be intimidated by the big number and bet OVER!

ASA top play on UNDER 166.5 New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - We will get a slower pace in this game which will lead to an Under. The Mercury are the 9th slowest paced team in the WNBA, the Liberty are 8th slowest. Since coming back from the All-Star break the Mercury have played especially slow, ranking last in the league. In their last five games the Mercury have been much better defensively with a Net rating of 99.2 which is significantly better than their season number to 104.4. The Liberty have the 2nd best Defensive Net rating on the season of 94.2 and have been even better after the break at 86.7. Phoenix hold opponents to 43% shooting (5th best) in the W, the Liberty hold foes to 42% shooting (3rd). These two teams rely heavily on their interior scoring but both teams have size and can nullify the others advantage. The Liberty have allowed 64 or less points in 5 straight games. New York has played Under in 9 of fourteen road games this season. Phoenix has stayed Under at home in 3 of their last four games and 6 of the last ten on this court. In mid-June these two teams met on this floor and produced 192 total points but both teams shot well above expectations. We will grab the added line value after the move and bet Under.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 4 PM ET - This game is going to be a shootout between a pair of teams that don’t play any defense. Dallas allows 1.123-points per possession this season, the most in the league. LA isn’t much better allowing 1.071PPP which ranks 10th. Teams shoot on average 47% against the Wings (12th) and 46% against the Sparks (11th). These two teams also rank second-to-last and last in the W in points allowed in the paint which translates to easy scores by opponents. Dallas gives up over 90PPG, the Spark allows over 85PPG. Dallas is coming off three straight games against two of the best defensive teams in the W (NY and Connecticut) so facing this Sparks defense will be a welcomed relief. LA had a pair of lower scoring games against Las Vegas and the Sun who are also top tier defenses. In their most recent game against the Mystics the two teams combined for just 154 points. There were 148 field goal attempts in the game, which is significantly more than the league average of 136. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league, LA is 5th so we know there will be plenty of possessions for this game to get into the 170’s. We call for the Over here.

ASA play on UNDER 168 Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30 PM ET - These two Western Conference contenders just met in Vegas on Wednesday night with the Lynx winning 98-87 as a 7-point dog. The game eclipsed the O/U number of 167.5. The first question you need to ask yourself is “why did the oddsmakers open this game with the same O/U when they just combined for 186 total points”? The total field goal attempts in that game was 135 which is below the league average of 137.4. The average total points scored in WNBA games this season is 163.4PPG. The reason for the higher output was insanely good shooting by the Lynx who hit 59% of their FG attempts (38/64) and made 11 of 19 3-pointers for 58%. Both of those numbers are well above the Lynx season averages of .46% oval and .39% from 3. Las Vegas shot above expectations too by going 33/71 from the field (46%) and 13 of 30 from Deep for 43%. Those numbers are unsustainable in this back-to-back setting between these two rivals. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the W in defensive efficiency allowing .956-points per possession. The Aces are 5th allowing 1.022PPP. Minnesota is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and will want to dictate tempo here on their home court. The last time these two teams met in Minny they produced just 146 total points. The Aces have stayed Under in 3 of their last four on the road. The Lynx have stayed Under in 7 of their last ten at home. In this quick rematch we like a defensive battle and low scoring game.

ASA play on UNDER 176.5 Dallas Wings at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is the second meeting between these two teams in consecutive games. New York won on Tuesday 94-74 as a 14-point favorite with the Under cashing as the game stayed below 171.5-points. Dallas shot 38% on 66 field goal attempts against a Liberty defense that is one of the best in the league. New York holds opponents to an average of 42% shooting and give up just 76.1PPG. The Wings are averaging 82PPG on the season and shoot .44%. New York is the most efficient offense in the W at 1.104-points per possession but they play at a slower tempo, averaging 78.3 possessions per game. Dallas is the worst defensive team in the league on the season with a Defensive Net Rating of 110.1. The Wings rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating and average 1.019-points per possession. The average number of field goal attempts per game in the W is 136.2. In the game on Tuesday these two teams combined for 140, slightly more than the league average. New York has a huge game on deck against Connecticut so expect them to go deeper into their bench and keep this game from turning into a shootout which favors the Wings. The Liberty have played 4 sets of back-to-backs against the same team and in three of those situations they scored less points in the second game. NY has a strong Over record this season at home, but most of those Totals were less than 170-points. In fact, the Liberty have had just to O/U’s this season on their home court of 170 or better and both have stayed Under.

ASA top play on UNDER 160.5 Chicago Sky at LA Sparks, 5 PM ET - We will put our O/U hot streak on the line tonight with the Under in this WNBA East vs. West showdown between the Sky and Sparks. These are two of the worst offenses in the W with the Sky ranking 8th in Net Rating, the Sparks are 11th out of twelve teams. When it comes to points per 100 possessions the Sky average just 1.001PPP (9th), while the Sparks average .999PPP (10th). Neither team shoots well either with the Sky holding an EFG% of .457, the Sparks EFG% is .483, both in the bottom third of the league. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in Pace of play so we can expect a slow deliberate tempo by each team. Scoring is going to be especially difficult for both teams as they are missing several of their top scorers. LA is without 3 of their top seven scorers and will have a tough time reaching their season average of 79PPG. Chicago is without Chennedy Carter (illness) who is leading their team in scoring at 17.2PPG and recently traded away Mabrey who was scoring 14.1PPG. Chicago is averaging 79.3PPG on the year and our model has them scoring less than that in this game. The only other meeting between these two teams was back in May but they only managed 156 points in that game. Bet UNDER here.

ASA top play on OVER 161 Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings, 9:30 PM ET - The Wings do one thing really well and that’s give up points. Dallas allows 89.7PPG on the season with opponents shooting .471% against them. They allow 1.120-points per possession which is also the most in the league. The Wings get destroyed in the paint by opponents, allowing 42.1PPG in the lane which is +5.5 more points than the 11th ranked team in the W. The Sun are the 3rd most efficient offense in the WNBA at 1.059-points per possession and score 37.4PPG in the paint. The Sun have one of the best defenses in the league, but they are missing Carrington who is their best perimeter defender. That’s not great news for the Sun considering they must stop PG Ogunbowale, the Wings best player, who is averaging 22.25PPG, 3rd most in the league. Connecticut will get a boost offensively with the addition of Marina Mabrey who comes over from the Sky and is averaging 14PPG. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and will need to score in transition against this Sun defense. The Sun are going to score no matter against a Wings defense that has allowed over 90-points in 7 of their last ten games. The bet here is OVER!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 158 - Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - We expect both teams to be a bit rusty offensively after the Olympic break and with a projected total field goal attempts of 160 we don’t see this game getting to 158+ points. These two teams met in early July and combined for 141 total points. There were 160 FGA’s in the game and both teams shot below 42%. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the league with a Defensive Net Rating of 93.7 while giving up 75.6PPG. The Lynx are also the second slowest paced team in the W at 94.79 possessions per game. The Lynx allow .951-points per possession. Offensively the Lynx average 1.028-points per possession which ranks them 7th out of 12 teams. Washington started the season 0-12, but have won 6 of their last seven games. They get three starters back from injury here and will be a better defensive team with the additions of Sykes, Samuelson and Austin. While the return of those players is great news for the Mystic it should also lead to an adjustment period offensively with the rest of the roster. The Mystic are already one of the worst offenses in the league averaging just .998PPP and 79.3PPG. Washington is 9th in the W in shooting at 43%, 10th in made FG’s and 9th in field goal attempts per game. Minnesota is average in several offensive key categories and won’t put up a big number here against a Mystics defense that should be better with key players returning. We like UNDER here.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 176.5 Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - Examining recent results for both teams we see each is playing at an above average tempo and possessions are up for both teams. The Wings are averaging 98.64 possessions per game in their last ten games, the Fever are averaging 97.20 possessions per game which rank these teams 1st and 3rd fastest in the W. Defense isn’t a strength for either team as they rank 11th and 12th in the league in Defensive Net Rating and points allowed per game with the Fever giving up 86.7PPG, the Wings allow 89.6PPG. Indiana allows foes to hit 44.3% of their shots (9th worst) while the Wings defensive FG% is last in the league at 46.8%. Despite their struggles defensively, both teams rank 7th and 8th in Offensive Net Rating and each scores over 81PPG. Dallas has scored 81 or more points in 5 straight games and 84+ in four of those. Indiana has put up over 81 points in 4 straight games including two games against outstanding defenses of the Liberty and Lynx. Going into the break we expect both teams to put for a maximum effort here and predict a high scoring game in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 161.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 3:30 PM ET - Our model is projecting over 170 total points in this game between a pair of Western Conference rivals in the Storm and Sparks. Seattle is one of the faster paced teams in the W at 97.95 possessions per game and they will want to dictate tempo. The Sparks are in the bottom half of the league at 96.31 possessions per game, but they’ll be forced into trying to keep up, much like they did in the previous meeting. In mid-June these teams met in Seattle which resulted in 174 total points being scored. LA attempted 69 field goals in that game which is five more than their season average. Seattle will again put up a big number here against this Sparks defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% (45.3%) and 11th in 3PT% defense. The Sparks rank 10th in Defensive Net Rating this season at 105.4 but have been even worse in their last team game rating 108.3. Seattle has the 4thbest Offensive Net Rating on the season and rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency. The Storm have faced some of the league’s better defenses in recent games and have still averaged 84PPG over their last five games. Granted, it won’t be an easy task for the Sparks to score against a Storm defense that is one of the best in the league, but we just need them to get to 78-points which they’ve done in 7 of their last eight games. Bet this one OVER the Total!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 4 PM ET - The best defensive team in the WNBA is the Minnesota Lynx with a Defensive Net Rating of 92.7. They allow just .942-points per possession, also best in the league and 74.6PPG which is second fewest. The Fever are 10-14 SU on the season and have relied heavily on their offense to win games as their defense is one of the worst in the league. The reality though is that the Fever’s offense isn’t that great either ranking 7th in Offensive Net Rating while ranking 4th and 5th in FG% and 3PT%. They will have a tough time putting up points against this Lynx defense that holds opponents to 40.1% shooting overall (1st) and 28.7% 3PT% which is also best in the W. Minnesota has held 7 of their last 10 opponents to less than 79 points and in five of those games they allowed just 62-points or less. Indiana recently played the Liberty who are very similar statistically to this Lynx team and that game finished with 161 total points. The Lynx recently played the Mystic (similar to the Fever) and that game ended with 141 total points. We expect another low scoring game here

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 173 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 3:30 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 167 on May 26th and 153 on June 7th. In the most recent clash, the O/U number was 160.5 so you can see for yourself the drastic difference in today’s line. The over-correction by the oddsmakers is a result of the Wings recent defensive struggles in allowing 100+ points in 3 of their last four games. When you look specifically at those three games they were against the Aces and Sun who are two of the best offenses in the league. Today the Wings face a Sparks team that ranks 11th in Offensive Net Rating and score just 78.4PPG also 11th fewest in the W. On the subject of offense, the Wings aren’t much better than the Sparks, ranking 8th in ONR while scoring 81.1PPG. Los Angeles has scored 80 or less points in 8 of their last ten games and several of those games came against subpar defenses. In games involving the Wings this season the oddsmakers have posted an O/U number of 172 or higher 3 times and it was against the Sun and Aces, who as we mentioned are far superior offensively than the Sparks. The value is clearly on the UNDER in this game.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 175 Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Phoenix and combined to produce 170 total points as the Fever pulled the 88-82 upset. The Mercury shot below season standards (43.8%, 33.5%) at 40% FG% and 26% 3PT% in that game which is unlikely to happen again here. Phoenix has put up 104, 84 and 100 points in their last three games against Dallas and Los Angeles who rate very similar in terms of defense to the Fever. Indiana is 11th in PPG allowed at 87.3PPG, rank 9th in opponents FG% and are 11th in Defensive Net Rating. Indiana is getting better offensively as the season progresses with an overall Offensive Net Rating of 99.9 on the year, but in their last ten games that number climbs to 105.1. The Mercury have an ONR of 108.3 in their last ten games and rank 4th overall for the season. Phoenix isn’t great defensively either ranking 9th in DNR while allowing 1.059-points per possession, 9th most in the league. Both teams are in the upper half of the league in pace of play so barring a bad shooting night we should see a Total of 175+ in this one. Bet Over!

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 172.5 Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - Both teams are playing well right now with the Aces winning 7 of their last eight games while the Storm have won 5 of their last six. We aren’t getting involved in a Side on this game but do like an Under wager in this big Western Conference showdown. The Storm has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the W this season at 94.3 and they’ve held 5 of their last six foes to less than 78 points. Seattle has the 2nd best FG% defense in the league allowing 41.8% and gives up the 4th fewest points per game at 78.6. Las Vegas is 6th in the W in DNR at 101.5 but in their last eight games their Defensive Rating is 97.5 and 3rd best in the league. The number on this game was set to high to begin with as a part of the Books reasoning was the success of the Aces offense in recent games scoring 88+ points in 5 straight games. Looking closer at the competition though we see the Aces faced 4 of the five worst defenses in those games and now step up to face one of the best. These two teams have met twice this season with the first encounter finishing with 143 total points and the second ending with 177. In the most recent clash, the Aces shot a ridiculous 56% overall and 40% from the 3-point line which are not sustainable numbers. We call for a lower possession game here and a solid Under winner.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 157.5 Minnesota Lynx at L.A. Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have had major injury concerns for most of the season and it shows in their 4-13 SU record. Minnesota will be missing their best player tonight in Napheesa Collier who is leading the team in points (20PPG), rebounds (10.2RPG) and steals (2.2SPG). The Under is an attractive bet here with a pair of teams that prefer to play slow with the Lynx being the 2nd slowest team in the W, the Sparks rank 9th in pace of play. In two meetings in June these two teams produced 148 and 157 total points. In the most recent meeting on June 14th, they combined for 125 field goal attempts which is well below the league average of 136.2. The reason that game got to 157 total points is the fact that the Sparks shot unusually well at 44%, above their season standard of 42.3% which is 10th worst in the W. That was also a surprising number considering the Lynx have the best defense in the league and hold opponents to 39.5% shooting. In fact, in the first meeting of the season between these two teams the Lynx held the Sparks to 26% shooting. The Under has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these two teams and 7 of the last eight. The most combined points between these two teams in the last five meetings is 157. We like our odds with the Under in this one!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - Our Peter Parker senses are tingling as they O/U opened 166 but has been bet up to the current number despite a heavy volume of public tickets and money flowing in on the Under. We of course will go contrarian here and bet the OVER. These are two of the worst defenses in the W with the Mercury ranking 8th in Defensive Net Rating, the Wings are 11th. Dallas gives up the most points per game in the league at 88.1, Phoenix allows the 9th most at 84.5PPG. Offensively the Wings have struggled without two of their three leading scorers from a season ago, but the recent return of Natasha Howard has provided a spark offensively. Howard has played in 7-games and is averaging 15.1PPG and is a great compliment to Arike Ogunbowale who is pouring in 23.7PPG on the season. Phoenix is loaded offensively with Kahleah Copper (21.9PPG), Griner (20PPG) and Taurasi who’s still a ‘bucket’ at 16.6PPG on 35.5% 3-point shooting. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 7 of their last ten games which gives them a 7-3 Over record their last ten games. Phoenix is on a 3-7 Over run but in five of those games they’ve faced 4 of the top defensive teams in the league. The Mercury are the 3rd fastest paced team in the W and the Wings have picked up their tempo considerably in their last two games. One of these teams will get into the 90’s and the other will be in the 80’s. Bet the Over!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 168 Minnesota Lynx at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - We are grabbing the additional value in the number and will play Under in this game. The opening number on this game was 163 but has since moved to where it currently stands, which is too high according to our model. These two teams just met in the Commissioners Cup and produced 183 total points. But there were some anomalies in that game which are not expected to happen this time around. Combined these two teams attempted 138 total field goals which is just two more than league average, yet they scored 21 more points than the league average. Both teams shot well above season standards as the Lynx hit 48% overall, 48% from Deep and were 100% from the FT line. New York had a great shooting game as well with a 45% field goal percentage, 41% from the 3-point line and 83% from the FT line. Granted, these two teams are two of the best shooting teams in the league, but they are also two of the best defensive teams with the Lynx ranking 1st overall in Defensive Net rating, while the Liberty are 4th. Minnesota gives up just 74.3PPG (2nd) while the Liberty allow 78.2PPG (4th). With a slower tempo expected and two great defenses we predict a total of 161.