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ASA top play on 10* UNDER 152.5 Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx Tues, 8 PM ET - We were on the Under in Game 4 and lost. It’s interesting that Game 4 goes Over the number by 20 points and the oddsmakers lowered the number for tonight’s game from 153.5 to 151.5. We are betting on a regression from the last two games and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. In Game 4 these two teams attempted just 126 field goals, well below the season average of 136. The Sun shot ridiculously well at 54% overall and 53% from Deep. Minnesota hit 47% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering these two teams are two of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. With this being an elimination game, we like both defenses to shine and the offenses to struggle. With another slower pace expected this game does not reach 150+.

ASA play on UNDER 153.5 Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun, 5 PM ET - First off, another boneheaded move by the WNBA execs who would schedule these playoff games on NFL Sunday. OK, well on to this game and how we see it shaping up. We are betting on a regression from the last game and expect total points in the high 140’s. In the first two games these teams combined for 143 and 147 total points. In G3 the Lynx went off for 90 and the game ended with 171. But the Lynx shot a ridiculous 57% overall, well above their season average of 45.4% and well above what the Sun allowed of 43.4%. Expect those numbers to come back to a more normal level here, especially considering the Sun are one of the best defensive teams in the W. Connecticut was 1st in Defensive Net Rating this season at 94.1. The Lynx were 2nd at 94.8. The Sun allow the fewest PPG at 73.6, the Lynx give up just 75.8PPG, the 2nd best number in the league. In Game 3 these two teams played at a below average pace with 134 FGA’s (league average 136). The Sun have stayed Under the total in 4 of their last five at home and off that home loss we like them to ratchet up their defense in this one and the Lynx are always good on that end of the court. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 164 New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces – Game 3 Friday 9:30 PM ET - This O/U number has steadily crept up from Game 1 which started at 162.5 but the Game 3 number hasn’t been adjusted high enough according to our model. In the opener of this series these two teams combined for 164 total points. In Game 2 they finished with 172. In G1 these two teams combined for an abnormally low number of field goal attempts at 126 (league ave. this season was 136) and still managed 164 total points. In Game 2 we saw the pace of play tick up with the two teams combining for 136 FGA’s. With the Aces down 0-2 in the series they will want to do what they do best at home, play fast and transition basketball. The Aces were the 2nd fastest team in the league when playing at home and the Liberty were 4th fastest on the road. These were two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league and ranked 1st and 2nd in Offensive Net rating. They were 2nd (Aces) and 3rd (Liberty) in EFG%. The last ten meetings between these two teams on this court have averaged 174.6ppg. We expect a high scoring game here and are on the Over.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 160.5 Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30PM ET - This O/U number has been adjusted up slightly compared to Game 1 which had an O/U of 158.5. In that game these two teams combined for 197 total points. We don’t expect that many points again as both teams shot well above season standards with the Mercury hitting 37/74 FG’s overall at 50% and 14/27 from the 3PT line or 52%. Minnesota also had a great shooting night at 49% overall and 42% from Deep. The Lynx also made 24/25 free throws. There will be a regression here in both teams shooting, but the pace of play will be high again (143 FGA’s in G1) and they’ll score enough to go over this number. These two teams have combined for 160+ points in 4 of five meetings this season. The Mercury have an EFG% of 50.3%, the Lynx are at 51.8%. Since the Olympic break the Lynx have played outstanding basketball with a 12-2 record their last 14 games and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in the league at 106.6. Phoenix has struggled defensively this entire season (DNR 9th worst) and their only chance to beat this Lynx team is to play up-tempo and outscore them. During the regular season, an average WNBA game would have 136 FGA’s and 164 total points. In other words, all we need is an average game here and we cash the Over.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 159.5 Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - We are getting a bargain price with this Over/Under number and will capitalize with a bigger play on the Over. These two teams produced just 145 total points in game 1 which has impacted today’s number and has bettors on the Under. The facts are that game should have gone Over this number rather easily. The two teams combined for 137 field goal attempts which is around league average for the entire season. WNBA games averaged 163.4 total points per game on 136.6 FGA’s. In Game 1 the Aces started very slow with A’Ja Wilson going 1 for 8 with Las Vegas missing 16 of their 18 field goal attempts. With the slow start these two teams had 80-points at halftime on their way to 160. After 3Q’s these two teams had 129 total points which had them on pace for 172. Then shit hit the fan and the Storm couldn’t buy a basket. Seattle missed all 13 FGA’s in the 4th quarter and only scored 2-points. You read that right, 2-points in an entre quarter. With this being an elimination game, the Storm won’t quietly and will foul late if needed. Seattle is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and the Aces are 4th so we know we will get plenty of possessions in this one. Las Vegas is the 2nd best team in the WNBA in Offensive Net rating, the Storm are 7th. If this is an average paced game, with average shooting, it goes Over the number easily.

ASA WNBA play on Over 171.5 Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings, 7:30 PM ET - The Wings are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four days. Their atrocious defense will be even worse tonight against the Storm. Dallas allows 1.135-points per possession, most in the WNBA a historically high number. In comparison, the next worse defense is the Indiana Fever who allow 1.091PPP. While Seattle is much better defensively, both are relatively even offensively with the Storm owning an Offensive Net rating of 101.9 compared to the Wings at 101.5. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 13 of their last eighteen games and 6 straight. Seattle has scored 85+ points in 5 of their last seven games and have put up 92+ in all three meetings with the Wings this season. The Over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Lastly, we know we will get a fast paced game here with a ton of possessions as the Storm rank 4th in pace, the Wings are 1st. Bet the Over.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 178.5 NY Liberty at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - The betting indicators on this game have us on the Under with more tickets bet on the Over, yet more money is on Under. The public has jumped in on the Over here as these two teams just met on Tuesday and produced 196 total points. There were a few outliers in that game though as the Liberty shot 54% overall and 55% from beyond the arc which are both well above season averages of 45% and 35%. Dallas hit 47% overall which is above their season average of 45% and somewhat surprising considering the Liberty have the 2nd best FG% defense at .43% allowed. An average WNBA game has 137 field goal attempts which results in 164 total points. In the game the other day the field goal attempts were 142 so not drastically higher than league average, yet they scored 196-points. The two previous games between these two teams this season resulted in 168 and 150 total points. We don’t expect these teams to shoot as well again tonight which will keep this game from going Over the number. UNDER is the call here.

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 174.5 LA Sparks at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This line opened at 170 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 174.5 on the total. With the public “all over” the Caitlyn Clark/Fever (pun intended) we will grab the value and play Under. The average total points scored in a WNBA game this season is slightly more than 163. Indiana is one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 83.8PPG but the Sparks score the 3rd fewest at 78.8PPG. The Fever have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.054PPP, but the Sparks OEFF is .989 or second to last in the W. Indiana is not known for their defense, with an overall Net rating of 106.8 but since the Olympic break they been significantly better with a DNR of 101.9. Los Angeles has been slightly better defensively since the break also. Indiana is playing lights-out with a 6-1 SU record since the break and have clawed back into playoff contention. They have played 4 of their last five on the road, two straight away, and may relax a little tonight with a big game on deck versus Minnesota. LA is playing for the #1 pick in the draft and just trying to get through the season. The Spark have scored 74 or less points in 5 of their last eight games. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they have combined for 170 and 151 total points. We like the UNDER in this one.

ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165.5 Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET  - Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. Las Vegas is the fastest paced team for the overall season, but in their last six games after the Olympic break they rank 9th in pace of play. They are averaging 7 less PPG in their last six games compared to their season average too. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they combined for 162 and 154 total points. Combined in the last ten games for each of these two teams they have only gone Over in 6 of 20 games. The value in the number dictates and Under wager here.

ASA play on UNDER 157.5 Atlanta Dream at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - These teams met in Atlanta on August 16th, fresh off the Olympic break, with the Dream winning 83-81 and the Over 156.5 cashing. The pace of play was slower as we expect to be the case in this game, but both teams shot above season standards resulting in 164 total points. In the only other meeting this season in Seattle these two combined for 151 points. Seattle has struggled offensively since the break with the second-to-last Offensive Net Rating in the W at 93.1, while scoring just 77.8PPG. Seattle is one of the better defensive teams in the league ranking 4th in DNR while giving up just 78.3PPG. Atlanta allows the 5th fewest PPG in the league at 80.1 and rank 6th in Defensive Net Rating. The Dream are the 10th slowest paced team in the league and prefer a slower tempo. Atlanta has a hard time scoring points averaging just 75.8PPG and they rank last in Offensive Net Rating. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings and we are betting that trend continues.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 180.5 Las Vegas Storm at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - This is a big number, but we expect enough points by both teams to eclipse this O/U. In two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 176 and 189 total points. Las Vegas themselves scored a combined 199 in the two games. The Aces are the highest scoring team in the league at 87.3PPG. They are also the fastest paced team in the W. Las Vegas held the top spot in the league last season in Defensive Net Rating at 97.7, but this season they rank 5th in DNR at 100.7. The Aces are giving up 82.9PPG on the season (7th most) after allowing 80.3PPG in 2023. The Wings defense is the worst in the league in too many categories to list. Dallas is allowing 90.2PPG, have the 12th rated FG% defense as foes hit 47.3% against them. The Wings are last in the W in Defensive Net Rating at 110.5. Dallas has allowed over 100+ points in 5 of their last ten games and surrendered 110 to the Sparks in their last game. L.A. is one of the worst offensive teams in the league so what does that mean Vegas will score. Lastly, both teams prefer to play fast with the Aces ranking 1st in pace of play, the Wings are 3rd. In the two meetings this season both games were well above the league average in field goal attempts. Don’t be intimidated by the big number and bet OVER!

ASA top play on UNDER 166.5 New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - We will get a slower pace in this game which will lead to an Under. The Mercury are the 9th slowest paced team in the WNBA, the Liberty are 8th slowest. Since coming back from the All-Star break the Mercury have played especially slow, ranking last in the league. In their last five games the Mercury have been much better defensively with a Net rating of 99.2 which is significantly better than their season number to 104.4. The Liberty have the 2nd best Defensive Net rating on the season of 94.2 and have been even better after the break at 86.7. Phoenix hold opponents to 43% shooting (5th best) in the W, the Liberty hold foes to 42% shooting (3rd). These two teams rely heavily on their interior scoring but both teams have size and can nullify the others advantage. The Liberty have allowed 64 or less points in 5 straight games. New York has played Under in 9 of fourteen road games this season. Phoenix has stayed Under at home in 3 of their last four games and 6 of the last ten on this court. In mid-June these two teams met on this floor and produced 192 total points but both teams shot well above expectations. We will grab the added line value after the move and bet Under.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 4 PM ET - This game is going to be a shootout between a pair of teams that don’t play any defense. Dallas allows 1.123-points per possession this season, the most in the league. LA isn’t much better allowing 1.071PPP which ranks 10th. Teams shoot on average 47% against the Wings (12th) and 46% against the Sparks (11th). These two teams also rank second-to-last and last in the W in points allowed in the paint which translates to easy scores by opponents. Dallas gives up over 90PPG, the Spark allows over 85PPG. Dallas is coming off three straight games against two of the best defensive teams in the W (NY and Connecticut) so facing this Sparks defense will be a welcomed relief. LA had a pair of lower scoring games against Las Vegas and the Sun who are also top tier defenses. In their most recent game against the Mystics the two teams combined for just 154 points. There were 148 field goal attempts in the game, which is significantly more than the league average of 136. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league, LA is 5th so we know there will be plenty of possessions for this game to get into the 170’s. We call for the Over here.

ASA play on UNDER 168 Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx, 9:30 PM ET - These two Western Conference contenders just met in Vegas on Wednesday night with the Lynx winning 98-87 as a 7-point dog. The game eclipsed the O/U number of 167.5. The first question you need to ask yourself is “why did the oddsmakers open this game with the same O/U when they just combined for 186 total points”? The total field goal attempts in that game was 135 which is below the league average of 137.4. The average total points scored in WNBA games this season is 163.4PPG. The reason for the higher output was insanely good shooting by the Lynx who hit 59% of their FG attempts (38/64) and made 11 of 19 3-pointers for 58%. Both of those numbers are well above the Lynx season averages of .46% oval and .39% from 3. Las Vegas shot above expectations too by going 33/71 from the field (46%) and 13 of 30 from Deep for 43%. Those numbers are unsustainable in this back-to-back setting between these two rivals. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the W in defensive efficiency allowing .956-points per possession. The Aces are 5th allowing 1.022PPP. Minnesota is one of the slowest paced teams in the league and will want to dictate tempo here on their home court. The last time these two teams met in Minny they produced just 146 total points. The Aces have stayed Under in 3 of their last four on the road. The Lynx have stayed Under in 7 of their last ten at home. In this quick rematch we like a defensive battle and low scoring game.

ASA play on UNDER 176.5 Dallas Wings at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is the second meeting between these two teams in consecutive games. New York won on Tuesday 94-74 as a 14-point favorite with the Under cashing as the game stayed below 171.5-points. Dallas shot 38% on 66 field goal attempts against a Liberty defense that is one of the best in the league. New York holds opponents to an average of 42% shooting and give up just 76.1PPG. The Wings are averaging 82PPG on the season and shoot .44%. New York is the most efficient offense in the W at 1.104-points per possession but they play at a slower tempo, averaging 78.3 possessions per game. Dallas is the worst defensive team in the league on the season with a Defensive Net Rating of 110.1. The Wings rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating and average 1.019-points per possession. The average number of field goal attempts per game in the W is 136.2. In the game on Tuesday these two teams combined for 140, slightly more than the league average. New York has a huge game on deck against Connecticut so expect them to go deeper into their bench and keep this game from turning into a shootout which favors the Wings. The Liberty have played 4 sets of back-to-backs against the same team and in three of those situations they scored less points in the second game. NY has a strong Over record this season at home, but most of those Totals were less than 170-points. In fact, the Liberty have had just to O/U’s this season on their home court of 170 or better and both have stayed Under.

ASA top play on UNDER 160.5 Chicago Sky at LA Sparks, 5 PM ET - We will put our O/U hot streak on the line tonight with the Under in this WNBA East vs. West showdown between the Sky and Sparks. These are two of the worst offenses in the W with the Sky ranking 8th in Net Rating, the Sparks are 11th out of twelve teams. When it comes to points per 100 possessions the Sky average just 1.001PPP (9th), while the Sparks average .999PPP (10th). Neither team shoots well either with the Sky holding an EFG% of .457, the Sparks EFG% is .483, both in the bottom third of the league. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in Pace of play so we can expect a slow deliberate tempo by each team. Scoring is going to be especially difficult for both teams as they are missing several of their top scorers. LA is without 3 of their top seven scorers and will have a tough time reaching their season average of 79PPG. Chicago is without Chennedy Carter (illness) who is leading their team in scoring at 17.2PPG and recently traded away Mabrey who was scoring 14.1PPG. Chicago is averaging 79.3PPG on the year and our model has them scoring less than that in this game. The only other meeting between these two teams was back in May but they only managed 156 points in that game. Bet UNDER here.

ASA top play on OVER 161 Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings, 9:30 PM ET - The Wings do one thing really well and that’s give up points. Dallas allows 89.7PPG on the season with opponents shooting .471% against them. They allow 1.120-points per possession which is also the most in the league. The Wings get destroyed in the paint by opponents, allowing 42.1PPG in the lane which is +5.5 more points than the 11th ranked team in the W. The Sun are the 3rd most efficient offense in the WNBA at 1.059-points per possession and score 37.4PPG in the paint. The Sun have one of the best defenses in the league, but they are missing Carrington who is their best perimeter defender. That’s not great news for the Sun considering they must stop PG Ogunbowale, the Wings best player, who is averaging 22.25PPG, 3rd most in the league. Connecticut will get a boost offensively with the addition of Marina Mabrey who comes over from the Sky and is averaging 14PPG. Dallas is the 3rd fastest paced team in the league and will need to score in transition against this Sun defense. The Sun are going to score no matter against a Wings defense that has allowed over 90-points in 7 of their last ten games. The bet here is OVER!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 158 - Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - We expect both teams to be a bit rusty offensively after the Olympic break and with a projected total field goal attempts of 160 we don’t see this game getting to 158+ points. These two teams met in early July and combined for 141 total points. There were 160 FGA’s in the game and both teams shot below 42%. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the league with a Defensive Net Rating of 93.7 while giving up 75.6PPG. The Lynx are also the second slowest paced team in the W at 94.79 possessions per game. The Lynx allow .951-points per possession. Offensively the Lynx average 1.028-points per possession which ranks them 7th out of 12 teams. Washington started the season 0-12, but have won 6 of their last seven games. They get three starters back from injury here and will be a better defensive team with the additions of Sykes, Samuelson and Austin. While the return of those players is great news for the Mystic it should also lead to an adjustment period offensively with the rest of the roster. The Mystic are already one of the worst offenses in the league averaging just .998PPP and 79.3PPG. Washington is 9th in the W in shooting at 43%, 10th in made FG’s and 9th in field goal attempts per game. Minnesota is average in several offensive key categories and won’t put up a big number here against a Mystics defense that should be better with key players returning. We like UNDER here.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 176.5 Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - Examining recent results for both teams we see each is playing at an above average tempo and possessions are up for both teams. The Wings are averaging 98.64 possessions per game in their last ten games, the Fever are averaging 97.20 possessions per game which rank these teams 1st and 3rd fastest in the W. Defense isn’t a strength for either team as they rank 11th and 12th in the league in Defensive Net Rating and points allowed per game with the Fever giving up 86.7PPG, the Wings allow 89.6PPG. Indiana allows foes to hit 44.3% of their shots (9th worst) while the Wings defensive FG% is last in the league at 46.8%. Despite their struggles defensively, both teams rank 7th and 8th in Offensive Net Rating and each scores over 81PPG. Dallas has scored 81 or more points in 5 straight games and 84+ in four of those. Indiana has put up over 81 points in 4 straight games including two games against outstanding defenses of the Liberty and Lynx. Going into the break we expect both teams to put for a maximum effort here and predict a high scoring game in this one.

ASA WNBA play on OVER 161.5 Seattle Storm at LA Sparks, 3:30 PM ET - Our model is projecting over 170 total points in this game between a pair of Western Conference rivals in the Storm and Sparks. Seattle is one of the faster paced teams in the W at 97.95 possessions per game and they will want to dictate tempo. The Sparks are in the bottom half of the league at 96.31 possessions per game, but they’ll be forced into trying to keep up, much like they did in the previous meeting. In mid-June these teams met in Seattle which resulted in 174 total points being scored. LA attempted 69 field goals in that game which is five more than their season average. Seattle will again put up a big number here against this Sparks defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% (45.3%) and 11th in 3PT% defense. The Sparks rank 10th in Defensive Net Rating this season at 105.4 but have been even worse in their last team game rating 108.3. Seattle has the 4thbest Offensive Net Rating on the season and rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency. The Storm have faced some of the league’s better defenses in recent games and have still averaged 84PPG over their last five games. Granted, it won’t be an easy task for the Sparks to score against a Storm defense that is one of the best in the league, but we just need them to get to 78-points which they’ve done in 7 of their last eight games. Bet this one OVER the Total!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 4 PM ET - The best defensive team in the WNBA is the Minnesota Lynx with a Defensive Net Rating of 92.7. They allow just .942-points per possession, also best in the league and 74.6PPG which is second fewest. The Fever are 10-14 SU on the season and have relied heavily on their offense to win games as their defense is one of the worst in the league. The reality though is that the Fever’s offense isn’t that great either ranking 7th in Offensive Net Rating while ranking 4th and 5th in FG% and 3PT%. They will have a tough time putting up points against this Lynx defense that holds opponents to 40.1% shooting overall (1st) and 28.7% 3PT% which is also best in the W. Minnesota has held 7 of their last 10 opponents to less than 79 points and in five of those games they allowed just 62-points or less. Indiana recently played the Liberty who are very similar statistically to this Lynx team and that game finished with 161 total points. The Lynx recently played the Mystic (similar to the Fever) and that game ended with 141 total points. We expect another low scoring game here

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 173 LA Sparks at Dallas Wings, 3:30 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 167 on May 26th and 153 on June 7th. In the most recent clash, the O/U number was 160.5 so you can see for yourself the drastic difference in today’s line. The over-correction by the oddsmakers is a result of the Wings recent defensive struggles in allowing 100+ points in 3 of their last four games. When you look specifically at those three games they were against the Aces and Sun who are two of the best offenses in the league. Today the Wings face a Sparks team that ranks 11th in Offensive Net Rating and score just 78.4PPG also 11th fewest in the W. On the subject of offense, the Wings aren’t much better than the Sparks, ranking 8th in ONR while scoring 81.1PPG. Los Angeles has scored 80 or less points in 8 of their last ten games and several of those games came against subpar defenses. In games involving the Wings this season the oddsmakers have posted an O/U number of 172 or higher 3 times and it was against the Sun and Aces, who as we mentioned are far superior offensively than the Sparks. The value is clearly on the UNDER in this game.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* OVER 175 Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Phoenix and combined to produce 170 total points as the Fever pulled the 88-82 upset. The Mercury shot below season standards (43.8%, 33.5%) at 40% FG% and 26% 3PT% in that game which is unlikely to happen again here. Phoenix has put up 104, 84 and 100 points in their last three games against Dallas and Los Angeles who rate very similar in terms of defense to the Fever. Indiana is 11th in PPG allowed at 87.3PPG, rank 9th in opponents FG% and are 11th in Defensive Net Rating. Indiana is getting better offensively as the season progresses with an overall Offensive Net Rating of 99.9 on the year, but in their last ten games that number climbs to 105.1. The Mercury have an ONR of 108.3 in their last ten games and rank 4th overall for the season. Phoenix isn’t great defensively either ranking 9th in DNR while allowing 1.059-points per possession, 9th most in the league. Both teams are in the upper half of the league in pace of play so barring a bad shooting night we should see a Total of 175+ in this one. Bet Over!

ASA WNBA top play on UNDER 172.5 Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - Both teams are playing well right now with the Aces winning 7 of their last eight games while the Storm have won 5 of their last six. We aren’t getting involved in a Side on this game but do like an Under wager in this big Western Conference showdown. The Storm has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the W this season at 94.3 and they’ve held 5 of their last six foes to less than 78 points. Seattle has the 2nd best FG% defense in the league allowing 41.8% and gives up the 4th fewest points per game at 78.6. Las Vegas is 6th in the W in DNR at 101.5 but in their last eight games their Defensive Rating is 97.5 and 3rd best in the league. The number on this game was set to high to begin with as a part of the Books reasoning was the success of the Aces offense in recent games scoring 88+ points in 5 straight games. Looking closer at the competition though we see the Aces faced 4 of the five worst defenses in those games and now step up to face one of the best. These two teams have met twice this season with the first encounter finishing with 143 total points and the second ending with 177. In the most recent clash, the Aces shot a ridiculous 56% overall and 40% from the 3-point line which are not sustainable numbers. We call for a lower possession game here and a solid Under winner.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* UNDER 157.5 Minnesota Lynx at L.A. Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have had major injury concerns for most of the season and it shows in their 4-13 SU record. Minnesota will be missing their best player tonight in Napheesa Collier who is leading the team in points (20PPG), rebounds (10.2RPG) and steals (2.2SPG). The Under is an attractive bet here with a pair of teams that prefer to play slow with the Lynx being the 2nd slowest team in the W, the Sparks rank 9th in pace of play. In two meetings in June these two teams produced 148 and 157 total points. In the most recent meeting on June 14th, they combined for 125 field goal attempts which is well below the league average of 136.2. The reason that game got to 157 total points is the fact that the Sparks shot unusually well at 44%, above their season standard of 42.3% which is 10th worst in the W. That was also a surprising number considering the Lynx have the best defense in the league and hold opponents to 39.5% shooting. In fact, in the first meeting of the season between these two teams the Lynx held the Sparks to 26% shooting. The Under has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these two teams and 7 of the last eight. The most combined points between these two teams in the last five meetings is 157. We like our odds with the Under in this one!

ASA WNBA play on OVER 170.5 Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - Our Peter Parker senses are tingling as they O/U opened 166 but has been bet up to the current number despite a heavy volume of public tickets and money flowing in on the Under. We of course will go contrarian here and bet the OVER. These are two of the worst defenses in the W with the Mercury ranking 8th in Defensive Net Rating, the Wings are 11th. Dallas gives up the most points per game in the league at 88.1, Phoenix allows the 9th most at 84.5PPG. Offensively the Wings have struggled without two of their three leading scorers from a season ago, but the recent return of Natasha Howard has provided a spark offensively. Howard has played in 7-games and is averaging 15.1PPG and is a great compliment to Arike Ogunbowale who is pouring in 23.7PPG on the season. Phoenix is loaded offensively with Kahleah Copper (21.9PPG), Griner (20PPG) and Taurasi who’s still a ‘bucket’ at 16.6PPG on 35.5% 3-point shooting. Dallas has allowed 90+ points in 7 of their last ten games which gives them a 7-3 Over record their last ten games. Phoenix is on a 3-7 Over run but in five of those games they’ve faced 4 of the top defensive teams in the league. The Mercury are the 3rd fastest paced team in the W and the Wings have picked up their tempo considerably in their last two games. One of these teams will get into the 90’s and the other will be in the 80’s. Bet the Over!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 168 Minnesota Lynx at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - We are grabbing the additional value in the number and will play Under in this game. The opening number on this game was 163 but has since moved to where it currently stands, which is too high according to our model. These two teams just met in the Commissioners Cup and produced 183 total points. But there were some anomalies in that game which are not expected to happen this time around. Combined these two teams attempted 138 total field goals which is just two more than league average, yet they scored 21 more points than the league average. Both teams shot well above season standards as the Lynx hit 48% overall, 48% from Deep and were 100% from the FT line. New York had a great shooting game as well with a 45% field goal percentage, 41% from the 3-point line and 83% from the FT line. Granted, these two teams are two of the best shooting teams in the league, but they are also two of the best defensive teams with the Lynx ranking 1st overall in Defensive Net rating, while the Liberty are 4th. Minnesota gives up just 74.3PPG (2nd) while the Liberty allow 78.2PPG (4th). With a slower tempo expected and two great defenses we predict a total of 161.