02-18-25 |
Central Arkansas v. Queens NC OVER 142.5 | Top | 72-89 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). THE SITUATION: Central Arkansas (7-20) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 84-83 upset win in overtime at home against North Florida as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Queens University-Charlotte (16-11) has lost two of their last three games after their 86-80 loss in overtime at Eastern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears held North Florida to 37.3% shooting which was their second-best defensive effort in their last 24 contests. Central Arkansas has played 4 straight Overs on the road after pulling off an upset victory. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. The Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation that ranks 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 12th in the Atlantic Sun Conference in that metric. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 82.4 Points-Per-Game which is +5.0 more points per 100 possessions than what they are allowing at home. In conference play, they are allowing their home hosts to make 42.9% of their 3s and 62.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 11th and 12th in the Atlantic Sun. They are also scoring +8.7 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. While they do not shoot the ball well, they do rank third in the conference by pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. Central Arkansas has played 19 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total including eight of their last 13 games this season. They have played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Queens University has scored 80 or more points in four of their last five games — and while two of those games went into overtime, they scored at least 72 points in regulation time in those two games. In their last five games, they are making 50.4% of their shots which has resulted in 80.6 PPG. The Royals have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including seven of their last 10 games Over the Total this season. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss in conference play — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Sun rival. And while Queens has played three straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They return home where they are making 45.8% of their shots resulting in 82.3 PPG which is +5.5 more PPG than their season average. They rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home against Atlantic Sun rivals. But they also rank eighth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency against conference opponents — and they are giving up +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. The Royals have played 15 of their last 22 games at home Over the Total including seven of their last 10 games. They have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home with the Total set in the 140s. Central Arkansas surrenders 77.4 PPG this season — and Queens has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who give up 77 or more PPG. They have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears want to avenge a 64-47 loss at home to Queens back on February 5th in an outlier low-scoring game for both teams. The Royals’ lone game in their last five where they did not score at least 72 points in regulation or 80 points overall was that contest. And those 47 points were the fewest that Central Arkansas scored all season — they only made one of their 21 shots from behind the arc in that game. The Bears score 70.0 PPG this season — and they should make more 3s tonight against this Queens' team that ranks 10th in the Atlantic Sun by allowing their guests to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Bears have played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-17-25 |
Delaware State v. Norfolk State OVER 148 | Top | 84-96 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). THE SITUATION: Delaware State (13-10) has won five games in a row after their 90-69 victory against Howard as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Norfolk State (17-8) has won five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 75-63 victory at Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Delaware State has made 48.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 91.4 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which is resulting in 78.3 PPG which is +6.9 more points than their season average. They rank 309th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are surrendering +8.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They are also scoring +2.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Hornets have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Part of Delaware State’s problems on defense is that commits too many fouls. They rank 319th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. The Hornets pull down 35.9% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Spartans rank 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.6% of their missed shots. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They lead the MEAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their last five games, they are making 51.1% of their shots which has resulted in 84.0 PPG. At home, the Spartans are making 53.4% of their shots which has resulted in 86.8 PPG. They are scoring +2.4 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. They rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are surrendering +7.9 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home. And while they have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1%, the Hornets have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Delaware State wants to avenge a 73-64 loss at home against Norfolk State on January 6th. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 revenge opportunities Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-15-25 |
Troy State v. Arkansas State UNDER 146 | Top | 71-70 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). THE SITUATION: Troy (16-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 74-56 victory at UL-Lafayette as a 10-point favorite on Thursday. Arkansas State (19-7) ended their two-game losing streak with a 101-67 victory against Southern Mississippi as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 gamers Under the Total after a win of 15 or more points. Troy ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay on the road where they rank 37th in the nation in that metric. They are holding their opponents to -5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.2% shooting inside the arc when playing on the road. They are holding their opponents to 41.3% shooting on the road which is resulting in just 63.7 Points-Per-Game. But they are only making 40.6% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.8 PPG. They only make 27.3% of their shots from behind the arc on the road, ranking 350th in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 46.8% on the road ranks 288th. The Trojans have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Troy does lead the nation by pulling down 41.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road — and that serves to slow the game down since they extend their possession with a reset shot clock more than two times per five possessions. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home Under the total after beating a conference opponent. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank fourth in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank 40th in the nation in that metric when playing at home. They are holding their guests to just 38.2% shooting when playing at home which is resulting in 63.8 PPG — and they are giving up -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when at home versus playing on the road. The Red Wolves rank 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and that mark improves to a 43.2% percentage when they are playing on their home court, ranking 11th in the nation. They hold their visitors to just a 25.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking fifth lowest in the nation. But this team possesses just a 49.9% effective field goal percentage on offense this season which ranks 276th in the nation. Arkansas State has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two played on January 11th when the Red Wolves made 9 of their 23 shots from behind the arc and the Trojans nailed 10 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in Arkansas State’s 84-78 victory. Look for the Regression Gods to appear with both teams not shooting as well from distance tonight. The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Red Wolves are outscoring their opponents by +9.5 PPG, Troy has played 5 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arkansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Saturday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-14-25 |
Marist v. Siena OVER 128.5 | Top | 65-64 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). THE SITUATION: Marist (16-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-71 upset loss against Iona as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Siena (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 61-59 upset loss at Rider on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road against a fellow Metro Atlanta Athletic Conference rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home after a loss to a conference foe. Siena returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Saints rank 254th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are surrendering 73.0 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are giving up +2.4 more points per 100 possessions at home as opposed to on the road. They are scoring 77.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are scoring +5.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and that dynamic should extend the length of this game since the Red Foxes rank ninth in the conference in defensive free throw rate. Siena has played 5 straight games Over the Total when playing at home and is listed in the +/- 3-point range. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Red Foxes rank 188th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% when playing on the road based on the strength of their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation by nailing 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Marist has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are attempting to avenge a 72-67 loss at Marist back on January 31st — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-12-25 |
Dayton v. Fordham OVER 145.5 | Top | 93-76 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). THE SITUATION: Dayton (16-8) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 73-68 loss to VCU at home as a 1-point underdog on Friday. Fordham (11-12) has won three of their last four games after their 80-79 upset win against Rhode Island as a 1.5-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Flyers held the Rams to 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games and tied for their best defensive performance in their last 20 contests. They also only made 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Dayton has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their 7 games after a loss this season Over the Total. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on they go back on the road where they are giving up 74.7 Points-Per-Game which is +5.7 more PPG than their season average. While they rank 145th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall this season, they fall to 174th in that metric when playing away from home. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions on the road — and they are also scoring +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Flyers rank 53rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency overall this season — and they improve to ranking 27th in that metric when playing away from home. They lead the Atlantic 10 Conference by making 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 20th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-pointers when away from home. The Rams struggle with their perimeter defense when playing at home where they rank 327th in the nation by allowing their guests to nail 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Fordham also ranks 13th in the Atlantic 10 in defensive free throw rate — and Dayton ranks third in the Atlantic 10 in getting to the free throw line. The Flyers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total played in February. Fordham only made 43.5% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Rams have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after an upset victory. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. Fordham stays at home where they are scoring 81.9 PPG which is +6.1 more PPG than their season average. They are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. And while the Rams rank 14th in the Atlantic 10 and 225th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they fall to 243rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They are giving up +2.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home as opposed to on the road. Fordham has played 20 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total including 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total this season — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. In conference play, the Rams are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots which is resulting in 79.9 PPG. While the national average for possession length is 17.6 seconds, Fordham ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents averaging only 16.7 seconds per possession — a hidden metric that helps explain why they have played three straight Overs. The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Dayton has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-09-25 |
Chiefs v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 22-40 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What did the four teams that reached the Conference Championship Games all have in common? Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City were the top four teams in the NFL in fourth-down success rate as each of them converting on at least 70% of their fourth-down attempts. The Chiefs and the Eagles are not shy about going for it on fourth down — and I expect both head coaches to be very aggressive in this game. This aggressiveness should result in fewer punts with both offenses likely to generate points on each of their drives. However, the flip side of this equation is that the occasional failure to convert on fourth down could create short fields for their opponent. Philadelphia gained 459 yards of offense against the Commanders despite quarterback Jalen Hurts being less than 100 percent with the knee injury he suffered the previous week against Green Bay. I worried that his passes would sail high with his front left leg not completely stable. Instead, he completed 20 of 38 passes for 246 yards. With two weeks of rest and recovery, he should be closer to full health. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after a victory by two or more touchdowns. They have played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC. In regards to Kansas City, we were on the Over in the AFC Championship Game. In that Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points with the offense as healthy as they have been all season. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Eagles hold their opponents to 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing more than 5.7 YPA. Philadelphia is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Part of the dynamic in Kansas City’s 12-0 record in one-score games this season is they score just enough points to outlast their opponent. Against a healthy Eagles offense that scored 35 points against them in the Super Bowl two years ago, I suspect that head coach Andy Reid will conclude that it will take at least 30 points to win this game — and that will impact the game script (just like it did in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills). In Reid’s head coaching career in the playoffs when his team was the number one seed and facing a number two seed (like against Buffalo two weeks ago), 4 of those 5 playoff games finished Over the Total — including all three of those games with the Chiefs. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-04-25 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 159.5 | Top | 84-98 |
Loss | -108 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (15-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-79 upset loss to Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (16-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 92-82 loss at home against Auburn as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Razorbacks to make 55.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mark Pope should get his team to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court tonight. Kentucky has played 6 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points this season — and those six opponents averaged only 71.8 Points-Per-Game with four of those teams shooting no better than 41.8% from the field and only one shooting better than 43.9%. Going back to his previous tenure at Utah, Pope’s teams have played 8 of their 10 games in his coaching career Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Pope’s focus is mostly on the offensive end of the court — but he does have this Kentucky team playing good perimeter defense. The Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road where they are holding their opponents to 27.6% shooting from behind the arc which is the tenth-best mark in the country. Kentucky does not have a proven true point guard healthy for this showdown tonight with LaMont Butler doubtful with an injury — he is scoring 13.2 Points-Per-Game and adding 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Kerr Kriisa would be the backup point guard but the former West Virginia and Arizona transfer is also out with an injury. The Wildcats are shooting 48.5% from the field this season which is resulting in 87.2 PPG — but those numbers drop to 43.0% shooting on the road which is resulting in 76.1 PPG. They score -8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home — but they do at least give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. Kentucky has played 7 of their 11 games this season Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and this includes all 4 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. In Pope’s 21 games on the road in his coaching career with the Total set in the 150s, 14 of those games finished Under the Total. Ole Miss allowed the Tigers to make 48.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Rebels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Ole Miss ranks 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay at home where they are holding their guests to 39.8% shooting which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are giving up -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also scoring -13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road — and they may be undermanned tonight as well. Senior guard Matthew Murrell is questionable with an injury — he is their second-leading scorer with his 11.2 Points-Per-Game clip. As it is, the Rebels rank just tenth in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Mississippi has played 8 of their 10 games at home this season Under the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Ole Miss’ Chris Beard is known as a defensive guru in his nine seasons as a head coach — and this is just his ninth game in his career when the Total was set in the 150s in a home game. In those 8 home games with the Total set from 150 to 159.5, 5 of them finished Under the Total. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-02-25 |
North Dakota State v. St. Thomas OVER 153 | Top | 62-79 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (16-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 72-63 upset loss to South Dakota State as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. St. Thomas (17-6) has won two games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 86-71 victory against Oral Roberts as a 13-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 37.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 contests. That performance was truly an outlier for a team that tanks second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. North Dakota State leads the nation by nailing 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are no slouches inside the arc where they rank 24th by making 56.8% of their shots. But on the other end of the court, they rank just 280th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bison have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss. They have paled 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. On the road, they are making 48.0% of their shots — including 42.5% of their 3-pointers which also leads the nation — resulting in 81.5 Points-Per-Game. More importantly, they are scoring +6.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home. They are also allowing their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 75.1 PPG. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. North Dakota State has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. St. Thomas made 57.1% of their shots last Wednesday which was the 12th time this season when they made at least 50% of their shots. The Tommies rank third in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. They are making 39.0% of their shots from behind at the arc and 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking eighth and ninth in the nation. But like their opponents this afternoon, they are a below-average defensive team that ranks 251st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. St. Thomas has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They stay at home where they are making 51.3% of their shots resulting in 91.3 PPG. They rank second in the country by making 43.4% of their shots from behind the arc. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home — but they are also surrendering +9.0 more points per 100 possessions in their home games. Their guests are nailing 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 330th worst mark when assessing home court splits. The Tommies have played 17 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in February. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: In their last 22 games against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field, St. Thomas has played 15 of these games Over the Total — and they have played seven of their last nine games Over the Total under these circumstances. 25* CBB Sunday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-01-25 |
South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette UNDER 135.5 | Top | 62-58 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (14-8) has lost three games in a row after their 62-58 upset loss at home against UL-Monroe as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday. UL-Lafayette (6-15) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 70-61 upset victory at Texas State as an 11.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars got upset by the Warhawks in two straight games despite being a double-digit favorite in both contests. Dissecting what happened in those losses is straightforward. Head coach Richie Riley has two main ways for his team to generate offense: fast break opportunities coming off turnovers and 3-point shooting. South Alabama leads the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and they maintain that clip for all their games which is the 38th-best mark in the nation. The Jaguars matched that 20.8% mark in their first meeting with UL-Monroe last Monday which resulted in 14 turnovers — but they only made 10 of their 39 (25.6%) shots from behind the arc in a 77-66 loss. In the rematch, South Alabama made 40.4% of their shots overall which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they still only made 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. Perhaps even worse, they only forced eight turnovers from just 12.9% of the Warhawks’ possessions in scoring just 58 points. The Jaguars have not scored more than 66 points in four straight games. But they do play good half-court defense when not forcing turnovers. UL-Monroe shot 38.3% from the field in Thursday’s game which was the best shooting effort against South Alabama in their last six games. The Jaguars rank 20th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. They lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference by holding their opponents to just 28.5% shooting from behind the arc. South Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 37.2% shooting which results in 62.3 Points-Per-Game. In terms of adjusted efficiency, they are giving up -6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when away from home than at home. But they are only making 40.4% of their shots on the road which is generating only 66.0 PPG. Furthermore, they are scoring -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. They rank eighth in the nation by attempting 50.1% of their shots from behind the arc this season — but on the road, they are only converting on 31.0% of these shots which ranks 252nd in the nation. The Jaguars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in hostile environments this season. They have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, South Alabama has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their gamers. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in February. UL-Lafayette made 43.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Like UL-Monroe, UL-Lafayette should limit the Jaguars' scoring opportunities on the fast break. They rank second in the Sun Belt by only turning the ball over in 13.7% of their possessions in conference play. They also do a good job of defending the perimeter. When playing at home, their guests make only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 122nd, but they do an even better job of getting their opponents off the 3-point line. They rank 35th in the nation by limiting their visitors to taking just 33.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. South Alabama is vulnerable against good outside shooting teams — they allow their opponents to take 59.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the nation. But the Ragin’ Cajuns only make 31.5% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home which ranks 276th in the nation. In their 12 games at home, they are making just 39.3% of their shots resulting in 64.6 PPG. UL-Lafeyette has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on their home court including eight of their 11 games this season. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: This game should be played at a slow pace which should contribute to what shapes up as a rock fight. South Alabama’s games average 63.2 adjusted possessions per game which ranks 345th in the nation. Their half-court defense makes it tough on their opponents who are averaging 18.9 seconds per possession which is the sixth-highest rate in the country. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 204th in the nation with their games seeing 66.6 adjusted possessions — and their opponents are averaging 18.2 seconds per possession which ranks 327th. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-31-25 |
Clippers v. Hornets UNDER 209 | Top | 112-104 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-20) has won three of their last four games after their 128-116 win at San Antonio as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (12-32) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after a 104-83 upset loss at home against Brooklyn as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hornets shot a season-low 33.7% from the field against the Nets. While I often consider low shooting efforts like that simply an outlier due for a visit from the Regression Gods, in this case, I suspect it is a canary in the coal mine given the injuries that this team is enduring right now. Brandon Miller is already out the season with a wrist injury — he was scoring 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Now LeMelo Ball is out with an ankle injury — he is scoring 28.2 PPG and adding another 7.3 Assists-Per-Game. To compound matters, Mark Williams is also out with a foot injury which takes away his 15.5 PPG scoring average. The Hornets simply lack reliable scoring threats. Charlotte has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Hornets stay at home where they are only making 42.1% of their shots which is resulting in 105.7 PPG — but they play solid defense on their home court by holding their opponents to just 108.7 PPG. They have played 18 of their last 23 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight Unders at home against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Charlotte has played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles nailed 52.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed San Antonio to make 48.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Clippers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. This is their third straight game on the road since Monday — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Los Angeles is scoring only 108.5 PPG — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road. The Hornets are getting outscored by -5.0 PPG this season — and the Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams getting outscored by -3.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: In 13 games, the Clippers are holding their Eastern Conference opponents to just 42.2% shooting which is resulting in 101.8 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total in non-conference play. The Hornets have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home in non-conference action. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-29-25 |
Longwood v. Gardner-Webb OVER 148.5 | Top | 87-92 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). THE SITUATION: Longwood (16-6) has won three games in a row after their 80-54 win against USC Upstate as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Gardner-Webb (8-12) has lost three of their last four games after a 61-53 upset loss against UNC-Asheville as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Longwood played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding USC Upstate to just 37.0% shooting — and the 54 points they surrendered were the fewest of the season. But the Lancers had given up at least 74 points in five straight games before that performance. Longwood has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. The Lancers are scoring 78.6 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored at least 77 points in six straight contests. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.8% of their shots which is resulting in 76.2 PPG which is +5.5 PPG above their season average. They are also scoring 107.0 Points Per 100 Possessions away from home which is +5.9 Points Per 100 Possessions above their scoring rate at home. Longwood has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total away from home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Lancers scoring attack is at their best when they are getting to the free throw line — they rank fifth in the nation in free throw rate. The Runnin’ Bulldogs pressure the basketball — they rank 21st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.7% of their opponents’ possessions. But the flip side of this aggressiveness is that they rank 254th in defensive free throw rate. When these styles of teams clash the result is either a turnover or a foul over 50% of the time — and that means plenty of scoring opportunities either on the fast break or at the charity stripe (when the clock is stopped). Gardner-Webb only made 32.0% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They also held UNC-Asheville to 36.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last eight days. They stay at home where they are making 47.7% of their shots resulting in 77.4 PPG. They are also scoring +5.7 more Points Per 100 Possessions when playing at home as opposed to playing on the road. Gardner-Webb has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while they are making 46.2% of their shots on the season, the Lancers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Longwood has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in games with the Total set in the 140s — and Gardner-Webb has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-26-25 |
Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48 | Top | 29-32 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think this is another playoff shootout between these two heavyweights where both quarterbacks will throwing haymakers and scoring touchdowns by the fourth quarter — and there is very good evidence that this kind of games go Over in conference championship games in my Final Take. This is the fourth playoff showdown between these two teams in the Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes saga — and the first three games saw 62, 78, and 51 combined points scored. These two teams did play on November 17th in the regular season with Buffalo winning by a 31-20 score. In head coach Andy Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, his teams have played 11 of their 16 opportunities to exact same-season revenge Over the Total. The Bills are going to get their points again. They are scoring 30.7 Points-Per-Game this season while reaching the 30-point threshold 13 times and the 27-point threshold 14 times. They have scored 28.3 PPG in the four playoff games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Chiefs allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and the Bills have played 14 of their last 18 games away from home against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of their passes. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Overs away from home against teams winning 75% or more of their games. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days — and, at the very least, that produces a game script friendly to the Over. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — but it has impacted the Chiefs’ inside rushing attack. Running back Isiah Pacheco generates 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry with Thuney at left guard — but at left tackle, Pacheco is only generating 2.8 YPC. Reid knows those numbers — and he knows that the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. That’s Over country. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. If they needed to score more points in those games, they would have. The Chiefs have had three games at home this season with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. All three contests went Over: 27-20 versus Baltimore; 26-25 versus Cincinnati; 30-24 versus Tampa Bay. Those games seem similar to this one — albeit with Kansas City probably needing to score even more points to survive and advance.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these heavyweights are going down without a fight. Reid has played four games in his coaching career where his team was the number one seed playing the number two seed in a conference championship game — and the Over is 3-1 in those two games with a 2-0 mark with the Chiefs. The Bills have played 5 of their 8 playoff games Over the Total as a number two seed (never the top seed) under head coach Sean McDermott. Here’s the kicker: in the last 19 Conference Championship Games between the top two seeds, the Over is 13-5-1. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-24-25 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Northern Kentucky UNDER 140 | Top | 79-59 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-7) has won three of their last four games after their 95-79 upset win against Wright State as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky (9-11) has lost four games in a row after their 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers allowed the Raiders to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 contests. Milwaukee still ranks third in the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their opponents to 44.7% shooting when playing on the road in hostile environments. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They stay on the road where they are holding their opponents to -4.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than they are giving up when they are playing at home. But they are scoring -8.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in hostile environments than at home. They are scoring 74.5 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -4.6 fewer PPG than their overall scoring average. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games when favored or a pick ‘em including all four of those games this season. They have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January. The Panthers lead the Horizon League by pulling down 42.5% of their missed shots in conference play — and second-chance opportunities contribute to lower-scoring games since both teams end up with fewer overall possessions. Milwaukee also leads the conference in getting to the free throw line — but the Norse lead the Horizon League in defensive free throw rate so the Panthers are not likely to reach the 24 shots per game from the charity stripe they average. Northern Kentucky has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite to a Horizon League rival. This is their second game since last Wednesday — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 41.4% shooting which results in 65.7 PPG. They give up -5.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions at home versus on the road in hostile environments. The Norse has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 130 to 139.5. But scoring is an issue for this Northern Kentucky team that makes only 42.2% of their shots resulting in 69.3 PPG — and they are only scoring 71.7 PPG when playing at home. They rank ninth in the Horizon League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are only making 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc this season — and the Norse have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 31% of their 3-pointers. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-21-25 |
76ers v. Nuggets OVER 230.5 | Top | 109-144 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (15-26) has lost six games in a row after their 123-109 loss at Milwaukee as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (26-16) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after a 113-100 victory at Orlando as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best defensive game of the season two days ago by holding the Magic to just 37.3% shooting. Now returning home as a double-digit favorite against a banged-up Sixers team, their attention to detail on defense may not be as sharp tonight. But Denver should continue to flex their muscles on the other end of the court where they are clicking on all cylinders. They made 51.9% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They have made at least 51.7% of their shots in six of their last seven games. The Nuggets are healthy right now — and Jamal Murray is probable to play tonight despite a nagging calf injury. Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. The 76ers are allowing their opponents to nail 48.9% of their shots — and the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. And while Philly only scores 107.5 Points-Per-Game, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are not scoring more than 108 PPG. The 76ers allowed the Bucks to make 49.4% of their shots which was actually their best defensive effort in their last four games. Their three previous opponents all made at least 53% of their shots against them. Philadelphia is banged up with Joel Embiid and Jared McCain out tonight with injuries — and Paul George is listed as questionable. Not having Embiid as a rim protector hurts the Sixers’ defensive efforts. In their last five games, their opponents are making 52.0% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season average. Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. And while the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by +4.6 PPG, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +3.0 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-18-25 |
Commanders v. Lions OVER 55 | Top | 45-31 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-5) has won six games in a row after their 23-20 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (15-2) comes off the bye last week after ending their regular season with a 31-9 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on January 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have high-powered offenses — and both these teams are aggressive on fourth downs. The high-risk/high-reward tactics of going for it on fourth down leads to more scoring either from extending drives or offering short fields to their opponent when the conversion attempt fails. The Commanders were three-of-five on fourth down last week against the Buccaneers — and it led to 14 points. For the season, Washington has converted 23 of their 28 (82%) fourth down attempts — and it has generated an additional 129 points for them. Having Jayden Daniels helps — and it is often on fourth downs when the threat he presents with his legs comes to fruition. The Commanders rank fourth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play. They have scored points on 50% of their possessions this season. They have scored at least 26 points in ten of their games. Washington has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Commanders' defense has played better lately as they rank in the top ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders in their last six games of the regular season. But they enjoyed a favorable schedule during that span against backup quarterbacks for Dallas (twice), New Orleans, and Tennessee, and a rookie quarterback for Atlanta. The only quarterback they faced during that span who was a Week One starter was Jalen Hurts — and Philadelphia scored 33 points against them. Washington has played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing on short rest. Detroit has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points. With head coach Dan Campbell proudly splitting kings at the blackjack table, the Lions rank second in the NFL in Fourth Down Conversion Rate. They also rank second in Third Down Conversion Rate and seventh in Red Zone Touchdown Rate with offensive coordinator and future head coach Ben Johnson calling the plays. Detroit ranks third in the league in Expected Points Added per play — and they have scored points on 51.6% of their possessions. They have scored at least 31 points in ten straight games — and they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games. However, the defense ranks in the bottom five in Defensive DVOA in the final six weeks of the regular season, and they ranked 30th in that metric over the final three weeks. Looking at Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed, they ranked 28th in that metric since Week 13. Against teams ranking in the top ten in Offensive DVOA, they surrendered 27.8 Points-Per-Game. Green Bay, Buffalo, and San Francisco scored 31, 48, and 34 points against them in games since December. And while the defense looked great against the Vikings, I think that speaks more to the state of the Minnesota offensive line along with Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again than it does about the quality of this defense. Opponents have completed 69.3% of their passes against them on first down — so I suspect that will be the game script for the Commanders to throw on first down which will lead to more passing and more stoppage of the clock. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against winning teams.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including five of those six games this season. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-18-25 |
Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 42 | Top | 14-23 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Chargers to just 261 yards of offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and their last two opponents have only scored 26 combined points against them. Houston has an outstanding defense that is balanced. They rank sixth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and seventh in the league in Opponent EPA per pass attempt. Defensive end Willie Anderson has taken his game to the next level. In his last six contests, the second-year pro has five sacks, 12 hits on the quarterback, and six tackles for loss. The Texans rank third in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. But the Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Under head coach DeMeco Ryan, the Texans have played 12 of their 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. The Chiefs offense is likely to start this game sluggish after not playing a meaningful game since Christmas Day. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. Kansas City has played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in January.
FINAL TAKE: In Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, Kansas City has paled 33 of their 44 home games Under the Total when favored by at least seven points. The weather will not help the scoring with the temperature in the low-20s — and the wind is over 10 miles per hour. 25* NFL AFC Divisional Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-17-25 |
Providence v. Villanova OVER 140 | Top | 73-75 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). THE SITUATION: Providence (9-9) had won two games in a row before their 84-64 loss at Creighton as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Villanova (11-7) has lost two games in a row after a 69-63 loss at Xavier as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 43.1% of their shots against the Musketeers — and their 63 points were the second-fewest that they have scored all season. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home again for the first time since January 8th. They are making 51.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 81.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home. Villanova lives by-the-3 and dies by-the-3 — and things shape up for them very well tonight to score a pile of points. They rank fourth in the nation by making 41.1% of their 3-pointers — and now they host a Friars team who ranks 320th in the nation away from home with their opponents making 38.1% of their shots behind the arc. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Villanova ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are only 169th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Providence ranks 106th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they are not likely to slow the Wildcats down tonight. They allowed the Bluejays to make 51.6% of their shots which was the second bad defensive game they have played in their last four games after UConn made 56.3% of their shots against them less than two weeks ago. But the Friars only made 38.2% of their shots against Creighton which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. Providence has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to a Big East rival. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. The Friars should score their share of points by crashing the glass tonight. They rank 39th in the nation by pulling down 35.2% of their missed shots — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Wildcats. Villanova ranks 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.6% of their missed shots — and their Big 12 opponents have pulled down 29.2% of their misses. Providence has played 10 of their last 15 games away from home Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a dog this season. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And in their last 12 games in January, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Friars are holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting this season — but Villanova has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-12-25 |
Commanders v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 23-20 |
Loss | -107 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). THE SITUATION: Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Don’t read too much into the Commanders' narrow win against the Cowboys where they only gained 269 yards of offense. Washington had nothing to play for in that game having already qualified for the postseason — and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did not play the entire game. The Commanders had scored at least 30 points in three of their four previous games. They are scoring 28.5 Points-Per-Game with the various metrics measuring offensive strength validating how good they are at putting up points. They rank sixth in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank fourth in Expected Points Added per play. They rank sixth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They also rank in the top five in Points-Per-Drive — and lead the NFL by scoring 2.8 Points-Per-Possession when playing on the road. But Washington is also giving up 373.9 total Yards-Per-Game on the road which is resulting in 25.0 Points-Per-Game. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total as a dog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. They have played four straight Overs — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. Washington gives up 137.5 rushing YPG — and Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. The Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while Tampa Bay averages 250.4 passing YPG, Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are averaging 235 or more passing YPG. The Commanders generate 5.0 YPC themselves — and the Bucs have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Additionally, head coach Todd Bowles has seen this team play 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against a team with a better record.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Daniels is certainly more comfortable and confident over four months later after his professional debut. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-11-25 |
Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 14-28 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak after their 19-17 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (12-5) has won four games in a row after their 35-10 win against Cleveland as a 20-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens continued their defensive resurgence in the second half of the season by holding the Browns to just 230 total yards of offense. After struggling early defending the pass, head coach John Harbaugh brought back veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a special advisor to first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That brain trust decided to move Kyle Hamilton to the free safety position during their bye week — and this tactical change has transformed their defense. Baltimore had the following defensive rankings through the first ten weeks of the regular season: 25th in Points-Per-Game allowed; 27th in Total Yards-Per-Game allowed; 32nd in Passing YPG allowed; 30th in opponent 3rd Down Rate allowed; tied-20th in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage allowed; 26th in opponent Passer Rating allowed. Since Week 13, the Ravens' defense ranked number one in six of those categories. They have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held those last four opponents to 10.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional opponent. Now comes the postseason where quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past — and he admitted this week that he gets very amped up for these games which may be impacting his performances. And he faces a Steelers team that has done a good job of containing him over the year. In his regular season career, Jackson has completed 64.9% of his passes and averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 102.0 Quarterback Rating. In the playoffs, Jackson’s QBR drops to a 75.7 mark with him completing only 57.4% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He has only six touchdown passes in his six playoff games — and he has been sacked 26 times. The corollary of Jackson’s great winning percentage against NFC opponents is that a very familiar opponent like Pittsburgh who plays against him at least twice a year defends him quite well. In his eight career starts against head coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, he has a QBR of 73.1 while completing only 58.0% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He averages only 160.5 passing YPG in his career against Pittsburgh with eight TD passes by nine interceptions — and he has been sacked 23 times. To compound the challenge for Jackson in this game, he will be without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers who averaged 14.3 Yards-Per-Reception for 1059 receiving yards this season. In his two games against Pittsburgh this season, he has thrown for 207 passing yards in each game but only completed 55.3% of his passes. Pittsburgh managed only 193 total yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The midseason decline of quarterback Russell Wilson is real, and it is spectacular. In his first seven starts since taking over for Justin Fields, he averaged 254.9 passing YPG by completing 64.8% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while posting a 103.9 Passer Rating. But during this four-game losing streak, he has averaged only 174.5 passing YPG and completed just 61.8% of his passes with four TD passes and two interceptions — and he has posted an 81.3 Passer Rating. Opposing defenses have caught up to his moon-ball or bust approach in the passing game. As I picked up in his tenure in Denver, Wilson has mastered stuffing his stats as best he can with these deep shots peppered with very few passes in the middle of the field — and he takes too many sacks. But as long as his interception numbers stay relatively low and his completion percentage is solid — at the expense of being a Check-Down Charlie — he remains relevant and in line to getting yet another overpriced contract. In his two starts against Baltimore this season, he has taken seven sacks. Wide receiver George Pickens seems checked out himself with only one catch and three bad drops last week. The Steelers are scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last four games while never scoring more than 17 points in those games. The three previous NFL teams entering the playoffs having not scored more than 17 points in four straight games once again did not eclipse 17 points in their playoff game. During their four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in both Expected Points Added per play and Expected Points Added per dropback in the passing game. Running back Najee Harris averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry in his two games against the Ravens this season. The Steelers have played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 5 of their 7 games under head coach John Harbaugh in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-10-25 |
Ohio State v. Texas UNDER 54 | Top | 28-14 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes’ explosive offense may get most of the attention but it is their defense that I consider the most underrated unit in this contest. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards last week from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. Oregon went into that game scoring 35.9 Points-Per-Game. The Buckeyes pass rush was ferocious last week as they registered 13 tackles for loss. Defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have taken their games to another level in the playoffs by combing for 7.5 sacks, 16 Quarterback Pressures, and seven batted down passes. Knowles decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. In the playoffs, they have held their two opponents to -7 fewer points than even the bullish SP+ ratings projected. The 3.8 Yards-Per-Play allowed in the playoffs is also the lowest of all qualifying teams. The Longhorns offensive line may not be at full strength given the knee injury of right tackle Cameron Williams. He has practiced all week after not playing last week against the Sun Devils. Regardless, he was the weak link in Texas’ two losses to Georgia this season. Left tackle Kelvin Banks is good — but he can’t block both Tuimoloau and Sawyer. The Longhorns scored only 15 and 19 points against the Bulldogs — and they only managed to score 17 points against a Texas A&M team that also had an elite defensive front. Ohio State has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Texas scores 34.4 Points-Per-Game — and the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams scoring 37 or more PPG. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season — and he will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They hold their opens to 111.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Ohio State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 120 rushing YPG. The Buckeyes score 36.4 PPG and generate 263.4 passing YPG. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. Ohio State gives up only 246.4 total YPG — and in their 7 games under Sarkisian playing a team that does not allow more than 310 YPG, 5 of those games finished Under the Total. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of those 11 games Under the Total when played away from home. In their 6 games played on a neutral field under head coach Ryan Day as a favorite, 4 of those games finished Under the Total. In the 6 games Texas has played under Sarkisian as an underdog, 4 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-31-24 |
Penn State v. Boise State OVER 52 | Top | 31-14 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both teams should score their share of points tonight. No one has been able to slow down the Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty. San Diego State did everything they could to tempt Boise State into avoiding handing him the ball and relying on quarterback Maddux Nelson — but Jeanty still rushed for 149 yards from 4.8 Yards-Pe-Carry against stacked boxes. Jeanty ran for 192 yards from 7.7 YPC early in the season against Oregon. On paper, the Nittany Lions rank fourth in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — but they are only 45th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed in 43% of their carries. But digging deeper, those numbers may be propped up by the softer opponents on their schedule. USC ran for 186 yards against them before Ohio State rushed for 176 yards two weeks later. In the Big Ten Championship Game, Oregon rushed for 183 yards against them. Say what you want about Boise State not having the same level of talent on their offensive line (although injured center Mason Randolph returned in their last two games) — but Jeanty does so much of his work after the first contact. Almost 1900 of his 2497 rushing yards this season were after contact. The Broncos deploy outside zone reads much like the Ducks, as opposed to the inside zone, reads that SMU relied on. If Jeanty has success and can approach or eclipse the 176 rushing yards mark by the Buckeyes, that should unlock the Boise State passing attack. USC, Ohio State, and Oregon generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Play and scored 31.7 Points-Per-Game against this Nittany Lions defense. The Broncos rank fifth in the nation by scoring touchdowns in 76.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. They generate 251.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Penn State has played 4 straight Overs against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Boise State has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. The Nittany Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by 28 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs away from home after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 8 straight games away from home Over the Total when the Total is set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Penn State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Boise State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-30-24 |
Lions v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 40-34 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). THE SITUATION: Detroit (13-2) rebounded from their loss to Buffalo with a 34-17 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (6-9) has lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 29-17 upset loss at Miami as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total is set at 50 or higher, there are many routes for the game to finish Under the Total. A few stalled red zone drives. Turnovers. Long drives that burns significant time off the clock. One particular dynamic for this game is the prospect that the Lions head coach Dan Campbell will ultimately decide to rest his key players on offense. I’ll get to that in the Final Take. After giving up 382 yards to the Bears last week, Detroit needs to use this game to find some answers and develop some momentum on defense — so I do not expect any let up on that side of the football. The Lions did enjoy +2 net turnover margin against Chicago — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while Detroit has played three straight Overs, they have then played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, they have played 7 of those games Under the Total. San Francisco has been playing better defense lately since the return of safety Talonoa Hufanga. They have held their last three opponents to just 281.7 total Yards-Per-Game since his return. The Niners rank fifth in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The 49ers can be run on — they ran 24th in Run Defense DVOA. I suspect that the Lions will run the ball to get backup running back Craig Reynolds plenty of reps because they will need to use him in the postseason to give Jahmyr Gibbs some help — and that should mean longer drives (which also gets Detroit out of this game faster). San Francisco has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 276.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 19.1 Points-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Lions are generating 6.4 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and San Francisco has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.65 or more YPP and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA. The 49ers have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
FINAL TAKE: I could be wrong — but I just don’t think Campbell is going to keep Jared Goff and other essential offensive players on the field for the entire game. I know he claimed that he was going to use all his starters throughout this game even if a win would not help their playoff positioning. After Minnesota’s (infuriating) two-point victory against Green Bay (+1.5) yesterday, the Lions take the top seed in the NFC playoffs only by beating the Vikings on Sunday. If Hendan Hooker plays a significant amount of time at quarterback tonight with backups on offense, then the final score hitting 50 becomes very difficult. Even if Campbell defies all logic and reason and plays his offensive first-string all night, I think the game stays below 50 combined points — but after losing two +3.5 underdogs in overtime this weekend, I am in no mood to risk my money solely on the prospect that Dan Campbell will resist his machismo. On the other hand, if I endorsed and invested in the Over tonight — only to see Goff and company on the sidelines before the end of the first quarter, I would be apoplectic (especially after watching two favorites win games in overtime from touchdowns to cover -3.5 point spreads). The Regression Gods do even things out in the wash … sooner or later. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-25-24 |
Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 115-113 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (593) and the Golden State Warriors (594). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-114 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Golden State (15-13) has lost four of their last five games after their 111-105 upset loss against Indiana as a 6-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers nailed 54.1% of their shots on Monday which was the highest shooting effort in their last 15 games. But they allowed the Pistons to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. Despite that subpar defensive performance, Los Angeles has still held their last five opponents to just 43.8% shooting which resulted in 104.6 Points-Per-Game which is -9.2 fewer PPG than their season average. But the Lakers are only making 45.3% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 106.6 PPG which is -5.6 fewer PPG than their season average. Rookie head coach and former podcaster J.J. Reddick was supposed to be an offensive guru for this team after espousing so many philosophies on the subject in his previous job (such as “shoot more 3” — so cutting edge!). But after posting an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.4 last year, that mark has dropped to 111.5 for Los Angeles this season. On the road, the Lakers are making only 45.2% of their shots resulting in 107.4 PPG which is -3.8 fewer PPG than their season average. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in that range. They have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their contests. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are relatively well rested after the NBA Cup time off two weeks ago with this being their fourth game since December 15th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Golden State is playing for just the fourth time since December 15th as well — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The team acquired Dennis Schroder to boost their scoring attack — but he has been a dud so far by averaging just 7.7 PPG and not even reaching double digits once in his first three games with the team. Steph Curry may be starting to show his age — in two of his last three games against Indiana and Memphis, he scored only 12 combined points on 2 of 20 shooting with 13 missed shots from behind the arc on 15 attempts. In their last five games, the Warriors are only making 43.4% of their shots resulting in 106.8 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Head coach Steve Kerr is getting good defensive play from his team that ranks ninth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank seventh in half-court defensive efficiency. Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (593) and the Golden State Warriors (594). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-25-24 |
Ravens v. Texans UNDER 47 | Top | 31-2 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 34-17 win against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (9-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win versus an AFC North rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after a victory against a divisional rival. Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17. Houston only managed 311 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Chiefs. Their offense is missing two key pieces with guard Shaq Mason out with an injury and wide receiver Tank Dell suffering his terrible season-ending leg injury that may end his career. But the Texans' defense should keep them competitive in this game as they lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston should keep Baltimore’s Derrick Henry in relative check. They rank second in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards Allowed — and they stuff opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage 19% of the time. They held Detroit’s dynamic duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry from 31 attempts earlier this season — and De’Von Achane to just 3.4 YPC. The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record under head coach DeMeco Ryans.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that range. Lastly, the Texans have played straight home games Under the Total when the Total set is set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-22-24 |
Eagles v. Commanders UNDER 47 | Top | 33-36 |
Loss | -109 | 1 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (12-2) has won ten games in a row after their 27-13 win against Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (9-5) has won two games in a row after their 20-19 victory at New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The stout Eagles defense held the Steelers to just 163 yards of offense last week. During their ten-game winning streak, Philadelphia has 14 takeaways and has held their opponents to just 15 Points-Per-Game. Since rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup for a base nickel defense, this unit has been outstanding. There usually is a learning curve when players first begin working for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but his concepts in his first year with the Eagles are beginning to gel — and he is unlocking the talents of the young players drafted from Georgia that had been underachieving a bit until now. After ranking tenth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders through Week 10, they have since risen to number one in that category. Philly lead the league by giving up only 172 passing Yards-Per-Game and they rank seventh in rushing defense by giving up 102.2 rushing YPG. They are one of just four defenses since 2010 to have not given up more than 2500 passing yards and 1500 rushing yards after Week 14. The Eagles have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a road favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Washington’s defense continues to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They have held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders have since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards. Their defense thrives at home where they are only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they given up when playing on the road. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes against the Saints but for only 226 yards which was the second most passing yards he has thrown for in the last six games. The narrative that the league catches up to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes in the second half of the season — and that he fails to adapt — continues to see evidence supporting it grow. When Daniels faced this Eagles defense for Thursday Night Football on November 14th, he only threw for 191 yards and generated just 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt which was his second-lowest mark in any game he finished this season. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Washington has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, in Quinn’s head coaching career, his teams have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total as a home dog — and his teams have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won the first meeting with the Commanders by a 26-18 score last month — and Washington has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Quinn’s teams have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-21-24 |
Clemson v. Texas UNDER 50 | Top | 24-38 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset win against SMU as a 2.5-point underdog in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Texas (11-2) had won five games in a row before their 22-19 upset loss in overtime against Georgia as a 3-point favorite on December 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Sarkisian has reigned in his offensive play-calling as the season has moved on — this appears to be a reflection of his thoughts on quarterback Quinn Ewers. Since his 43 attempts in the Longhorns' first meeting with the Bulldogs on October 13th, Ewers did not throw more than 37 times in his next five games — and he averaged only 31 attempts per game during that stretch. But in the rematch against Georgia, Ewers was asked to throw the ball 46 times because the running game did not get any traction against the Bulldogs’ defensive front. Texas only gained 31 rushing yards from 28 carries. Ewers did throw for 358 yards but he also threw two interceptions. He has nine interceptions on the season. In the overtime session, Sarkisian was dialing up safe but frustratingly ineffective fade routes — and that seemed to be indicative of a lack of trust in Ewers. Too often, Ewers floats his throws. He also struggles to throw the ball to make his receivers separate and get open. These weaknesses in his game limit the viable options Sarkisian can use in his playbook. Ewers lacks mobility as well. It is telling that the Longhorns did not score more than 20 points in three of their last four games. But their defense remains elite. They limited Georgia to just 277 yards of offense. The 22 points they gave up (after overtime) were the third most points they have surrendered all season. They held ten of their opponents to 17 points or less. For the season, they only gave up 249.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 12.5 Points-Per-Game. Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Clemson only gained 326 yards of offense in their upset win against SMU. The Tigers' offense has hit a wall when facing top-level competition. In their two games against SEC opponents, Georgia and South Carolina, they only scored 17 combined points. They failed to score more than 24 points on five occasions this season. Clemson generated 454.9 total YPG which resulted in 35.5. PPG — but those numbers drop by -70.9 YPG and -8.2 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow ACC rival. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Mustangs — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Clemson’s defense remains very good led by several talented sophomores. They held eight of their opponents to no more than 20 points. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns score 33.6 PPG — and Clemson has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. Texas has played 5 straight Unders against teams who score 31 or more PPG. 25* CFB Playoff First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-19-24 |
Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 42 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-5) has won four games in a row after their 31-13 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-17 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers had averaged 27 Points-Per-Game during a five-game stretch until running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending torn MCL injury. Los Angeles has since scored only 17 points in each of their three games since losing him for the year. They generated only 206 yards of offense last week in their blowout loss to the Buccaneers. In his last four games, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked once in every nine dropbacks — and he is now dealing with an ankle injury that is slowing him down. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Los Angeles should bounce back on defense after getting carved by Baker Mayfield in explosive plays. They are still only giving up 17.6 Points-Per-Game which is tied for the best mark in the league. They rank ninth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less between games. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Denver only gained 193 yards last week despite scoring 31 points. One of their touchdowns came from a 50-yard fumble recovery. Rookie Bo Nix only threw for 130 yards in that game — and he has five interceptions in his last two weeks after throwing three picks against the Colts. Now the Broncos' offense will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin who is out with an injury — and head coach Sean Payton has been relying on him as his go-to back in crunch time lately. Much of the success of the offense this season against the bottom-tiered defenses in the league. In their five games against teams that rank in the top 13 in Defensive DVOA, they are only scoring 13.2 PPG. Their offensive numbers are propped up by scoring 30 PPG in their other nine games against the bottom 19 teams in Defensive DVOA. Denver’s defense has been outstanding this season as they lead the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. They have given up the fewest explosive plays this season — and their 14.8% stuff rate of opposing rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage is the fifth-best mark in the league. The Broncos are surrendering only 17.6 PPG — and Harbaugh-coached NFL teams have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 19.0 PPG. Denver has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, in Payton’s head coaching career, his teams have played 13 of their 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home against divisional rivals. They have played 12 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against division opponents when favored. These two teams have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-17-24 |
Bucks v. Thunder UNDER 216 | Top | 97-81 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-11) has won three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests after their 110-102 win against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the NBA Cup on Saturday. Oklahoma City (20-5) has won five games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 111-96 victory against Houston as a 5.5-point favorite in their Semifinal match in the NBA Cup on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks stepped up their play on defense against the Hawks by holding them to 42.7% shooting. Head coach Doc Rivers has this group playing better on the defensive end of the court. While they rank 13th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rise to eighth in the league in that metric over their last 15 games. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, they will have a size edge in this contest. With $500K on the line in a game that will not count in the regular season standings, look for another strong effort on defense from this team. It is telling that Milwaukee had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total away from home against teams from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City held the Rockets to just 36.5% shooting on Saturday. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will not make it easy on the Milwaukee shooters. They give up the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions — and the Bucks rank just 26th in the league in creating points in the paint. The Thunder also does a great job in defending the pick-and-roll which Milwaukee leans heavily on with Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — they give up the fewest 3-point attempts in those situations. They also surrender the fifth fewest made 3-pointers in the NBA. Oklahoma City wants to make this a track meet and generate scoring opportunities in transition — but they are not very efficient in those situations as they rank just 23rd in effective Field Goal percentage (eFG). Rivers knows this and will have his team focus on protecting the basketball and making this a half-court game. The Thunder rank just 14th in eFG when playing in the half-court. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total following a straight-up win. This is their third game since December 8h — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home. And in their last 8 games as an underdog or a favorite of up to 5.5 points, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: In the knockout games in the NBA Cup this season, the average combined score has been only 208.9 points — and all five games played on a neutral court in Las Vegas in the Semifinals or Finals of this tournament going back to last year have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-16-24 |
Bears v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-13 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 42-21 win against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears gained only 162 yards of offense last week against the 49ers’ defense. Interim head coach Thomas Brown simply has too much on his plate after first being elevated to be the interim offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron before taking over the head coaching duties when Matt Eberflus was sacked. His primary responsibility should be to prepare his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams since he is the future of the franchise. Chicago has scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. On the road, they are generating only 283.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Williams averages only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt when on the road which ranks 30th in the league. The Vikings rank in the top-ten in deploying zone defenses against pass under defensive coordinator Brian Flores — and Williams ranks 30th in Passer Rating when facing zone defenses. Williams is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season after getting sacked seven times last week — and now this offensive line has to try to protect him against a Minnesota defense that blitzes almost half the time in passing situations. To compound matters, center Ryan Bates and running back Roschon Johnson are out tonight with injuries — and running back D’Andre Swift is questionable. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against divisional rivals. Minnesota is only allowing 18.5 PPG — and their defense ranks number one according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the Vikings rushing attack only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per play — and their offensive line has taken a step back since Cam Robinson replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 34 games played in Prime-Time, they have played 22 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams with a 30-27 victory in Chicago as a 3-point favorite on November 24th. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-15-24 |
Packers v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 30-13 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th. Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Seattle enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Packers average 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams generating 7.0 or more YPA. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Geno Smith has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road. Smith is completing 71.5% of his passes with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions on the road with a 96.9 Passer Rating — but when at home, he is completing 67.8% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and ten interceptions with an 84.5 Passer Rating. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-14-24 |
Blues v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (75) and the Dallas Stars (76). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (14-14-2) has lost two of their three games after their 4-3 loss against San Jose on Thursday. Dallas (17-11-0) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-1 loss against Nashville on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars are underachieving with their scoring attack this season. They have failed to score more than two goals in five of their last six games. They are only scoring 2.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Their defense and goaltender Jake Oettinger are keeping them competitive in the Western Conference. They had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before their loss to the Predators. Dallas has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their previous game on home ice — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after playing their previous game at home. They are only giving up 1.8 Goals-Per-Game on home at the American Airlines Center. The Stars have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Oettinger has a 14-7-0 record this season with a 2.46 Goals-Against-Average and a .911 save percentage. He has played far better at home where he has a 2.08 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 12 games at home as opposed to his 3.02 GAA and a .889 save percentage in nine starts on the road. Oettinger has a +4.1 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark so far this season. St. Louis has been playing better defensively since Jim Montgomery took over as their head coach on November 24th. In their eight games since, they have given up only 20 goals for a 2.5 Goals Allowed per Game mark. But the Blues are only scoring 2.7 Goals-Per-Game this season. St. Louis has played 34 of their last 49 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 5 of their 7 games this season Under the Total after losing at home in their last game. Jordan Binnington is between the pipes tonight. He has an 8-11-0 record with a 2.98 GAA and a .896 save percentage — but he has been better away from home this season. While he has a 3.31 GAA and a .882 save percentage in ten starts at home, those numbers improve to a 2.70 GAA and a .907 save percentage in his 11 starts on the road. Binnington has a solid +2.1 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark so far this season. The Blues have played 30 of their last 49 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher — and they have played 16 of their last 24 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game and outshooting them by +3.0 Shots-Per-Game. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. They have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams who outshoot their opponents by +3.0 or more Shots-Per-Game including four of those five occasions this season — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total against teams who outshoot their opponents by +3.0 or more Shots-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these Central Division rivals this season — and they have played 9 of their last 11 clashes Under the Total. The Blues are scoring only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game against division opponents this season — and the Stars are only scoring 2.7 Goals-Per-Game against division rivals. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (75) and the Dallas Stars (76). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-12-24 |
Rams v. 49ers OVER 48 | Top | 12-6 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. Los Angeles finally has a healthy offensive line to give quarterback Matthew Stafford more time to find wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since Week Eight, the Rams ranks third in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play after ranking in the bottom half of the league before that with their wide receiver room not at full strength. They are scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven games and have scored at least 26 points in four of those games. But Los Angeles is also giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. They have seen 51.7 combined points scored on average in their last seven games — and they have seen 57 combined points scored on average in their last four contests. In a game between two teams desperate for the victory tonight, both teams should score (at least) in the 20s and playing with scoring urgency in the fourth quarter. The Rams' defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when not playing with extended rest — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total when not playing with extended rest. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. But the 49ers defense has struggled lately by allowing 35 and 38 points before holding the Bears to 13 points. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable to play with a hip and oblique injury. San Francisco has played five games against teams who rank in the top in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are allowing 30.4 PPG against those five opponents with each of those teams scoring at least 24 points. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a home favorite of up to seven points. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC West rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in December — and the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-06-24 |
Tulane v. Army UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-35 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-3) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 34-24 upset loss at home against Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite last Thursday. Army (10-1) rebounded from their loss against Notre Dame two weeks ago with a 29-24 win against UTSA as a 6-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall knows how to prepare his teams to defend against the triple option offense. In his three games against service academy teams going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Troy, his teams have given up only nine combined points with two shutout wins on the road. That mark includes a 35-0 victory at Navy three weeks ago in a game where they held the Midshipmen to only 100 rushing yards from 35 carries. Not only has his defense prepared for the triple option recently, but the coaching staff can use that experience to adjust for this contest. Army generates 312.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Sumrall’s teams have played all 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Sumrall’s teams have also played 10 of their 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 4 of their 5 games on the road Under the Total when laying up to seven points. The Green Wave holds their opponents to 3.72 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank seventh in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 29th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They rank in the top 15 in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed — and they lead in the nation in Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Rate Allowed after thwarting 16 of the 23 fourth down attempts by their opponents this season. Tulane is holding their opponents to just 304.7 total YPG which has resulted in just 18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave run the ball on offense as they have the 10th lowest pass rate in the FBS. Tulane has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Army ranks eighth in the nation by allowing only 15.1 PPG — and they are limiting their opponents to 295.5 YPG. The Black Knights have played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. And while the Green Wave averages 214.3 rushing YPG, Army has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 310 YPG. Furthermore, the Black Knights have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their 18 games under head coach Jeff Monken against teams winning 75% or more of their games. And in their last 15 games in December, Army has played 10 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The weather will not be conducive to passing the football with the temperatures dropping into the 20s and winds at 9 miles per hour. As it is, Army scores 32.7 PPG — and Tulane has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. The Green Wave averages 6.7 Yards-Per-Attempt and 430.7 YPG — and the Black Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 425 or more YPG and 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-05-24 |
Packers v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The biggest storyline for this NFC North showdown is the injury situation. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. I do expect the Lions to keep scoring. They lead the NFL in Points Per Drive and Pass Success Rate. They are fourth in Expected Points Added Per Play. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 121.7 Passer Rating in his last ten games — and he has always thrived when playing indoors. I expect this game to be a barn-burner between two good teams. Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Lions have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. In their last 28 games at home, Detroit is scoring 32.3 Points-Per-Game — and those games generated 54.6 combined PPG. The Packers are scoring 26.5 PPG with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG — and the Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who outscore their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Green Bay is missing two defensive starters with cornerback Jaire Alexander and middle linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out tonight with injuries. That hurts a defense that already ranks 19th on the road in Points Allowed Per Drive. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games over the Total after a win at home. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an earlier loss in the season — and the Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-01-24 |
49ers v. Bills UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-35 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This was a tricky one to handicap since my initial take was to lean to the Over since both these teams tend to play in higher-scoring games. But both the weather and injuries play a big role in assessing the over/under number for tonight’s game. It will be cold with the temperatures dropping into the mid-20s. There is a 77% chance of precipitation so some snow is likely — but snow often helps the offense since it impairs the ability of defenders to react to playmakers. Dan Marino was quoted as saying: “If it’s snowing, I’m throwing.” Wind can be a problem. The afternoon forecast for this evening projects winds at 11 miles per hour which is not too bad. But wind gusts of up to 29 MPH are also expected — and that is a problem. The biggest argument that convinced me to endorse the Under is the injury situation. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to play tonight — but I do not like what is going on with the mysterious shoulder injury that kept him out of last week’s game. He may not be close to 100%. The 49ers are also without two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Brooks out. The loss of Williams is devastating as he is the best left tackle in the world. In the two games Purdy played without Williams last season, he had two touchdown passes and four interceptions — and the Niners only scored 17 points in both games. Their offense has already been slowed down by the season-ending injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Running back Christian McCaffrey is back after missing the first eight games of the season — but he does not appear to be at full strength as he is generating only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry and has yet to score a touchdown. The Niners are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game since McCaffrey returned — and they have scored no more than 18 points in three of their last five games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is dealing with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, with the biggest loss being Nick Bosa. Given all this, I expect Shanahan to shorten this game by running the football and leaning heavily on McCaffrey to carry the offense. Shanahan has not found himself in a situation like this often — and the past results are telling. In his career as the head coach for San Francisco, there have been 23 games when the 49ers were on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points — and 16 of those games finished Under the Total. The 49ers have played 16 of their 24 games in the Shanahan era Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, in their 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points under Shanahan, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Buffalo is dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable. Their defense may be bolstered with the return of linebacker Matt Milano who has yet to play this season — he is listed as questionable. The Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last six games. They are allowing only 286.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. San Francisco is averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 384.8 total YPG this season. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who generate 5.65 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: I expect the 49ers to rely on their ground game which generates 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry against a vulnerable Bills defense that surrenders 4.78 YPC. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against these teams. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-28-24 |
Dolphins v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-30 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 34-15 win against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-10 victory against San Francisco on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather will not be conducive for offensive firepower tonight. Temperatures are expected in the 20s in Green Bay during the game with the wind chill dipping into the single digits. Winds will be around 15 miles per hour with gusts eclipsing 20 MPH. With wind like that, the passing game and field goal attempts will be impacted. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold in his career — he has lost all four of his starts when the temperature is below 40 degrees. He has completed only 54.5% of his passes in those four games with four touchdown passes and five interceptions — and he has a low 68.2 Passer Rating in those games. In the three games in cold weather where wind was also a factor, Miami only scored 39 combined points. While the weather is getting much of the headlines for tonight’s game, I think the defenses for both teams deserve more attention in this non-conference showdown. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 19 points in three straight games. They held the Patriots to just 269 total yards last week. While they rank 11th this season in Expected Points Added per play, they rise to fifth in that metric in the last three weeks. They rank fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt this season. They have improved in stopping the run as well. They have held opposing rushers to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Five. Overall, they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 21.5 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 19.0 PPG. Miami has played 4 of their 5 games on the road this season Under the Total. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an AFC East rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a game against a division rival. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Green Bay held the 49ers to just 241 total yards last week. They have only given up 29 combined points in their last two contests. At home, the Packers are holding their guests to just 285.7 total YPG which is resulting in just 18.3 PPG. Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense this season — and they have held their last five opponents to just 190 passing YPG. They also lead the NFL with 22 takeaways. Don’t underestimate quarterback Jordan Love’s discomfort in the cold — he is not Brett Favre when it comes to thriving in these conditions. He has a 2-2 record straight-up in his four starts under 40 degrees. Love only completed 13 of 23 passes last week for 163 yards. He ranks 32nd in the league by completing only 61.8% of his passes — and he ranks 32nd in Passer Rating on third down. To compound matters, he will be without wide receiver Romeo Doubs tonight due to injury. Head coach Matt LaFleur has adapted to Love’s accuracy (and interception) issues by leaning on the run and embracing a ball-control offense. The Packers rank 30th in the NFL in pass-rate versus the league expectation — and they rank 29th in pace of play. Green Bay has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Thanksgiving night game has seen 11 of the last 17 games finish Under the Total by an average of 4.2 PPG — and in the last 11 Thanksgiving night games with the Total set at 43 or higher, 8 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-27-24 |
Knicks v. Mavs OVER 232.5 | Top | 114-129 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Dallas Mavericks (554). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7) has won five of their last six games after their 145-118 upset win at Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Dallas (10-8) has won five of their last six contests after their 129-119 upset victory at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks scored the most points in the regular season that did not go into overtime since 1980. After nailing 60.9% of their shots against the Nuggets, it is reasonable to expect the Regression Gods to appear — but the drop-off should not be significant because this New York scoring attack is cooking. The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns is opening up scoring lanes for his teammates. They have many scorers who can create their own shot. O.G. Anunoby scored 40 points on Monday — he is scoring 19.1 Points-Per-Game from 52.4% shooting and a 42.2% mark from behind the arc. Jalen Brunson is finding the right balance between being a scorer and a distributor. They have made at least 56.0% of their shots in three of their last four games — and they have scored 134 or more points in three of their last four games. Overall, the Knicks rank second with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.9. Only Cleveland and New York rank in the top-three in the league in both 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. They rank third in midrange shooting. They also maximize their possessions by leading the NBA with the lowest turnover margin. So, yes, I think the high-scoring is sustainable — and they have scored 123 or more points in five of their last seven games. The Knicks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. This is their fourth straight game on the road and third game since last Friday — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing the third game on the road in the last five games. They have also played 7 of their 10 games on the road Over the Total this season. Dallas made 50.0% of their shots against the Hawks on Monday — it was the third time in their last four games that they shot 50% or better from the field. They have scored at least 118 points in five straight games. But they have also given up 119 or more points in four of their last five contests. They are putting up these offensive numbers despite being without Luka Doncic has missed the last three games due to injury. Head coach Jason Kidd has his team playing a faster tempo without Doncic who prefers a slower style of play to set up his isolation game on offense. In their last three games, they have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.3 — but they also have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 112.8. Naji Marshall has been a pleasant surprise by scoring 20 or more points in all three of those games. Dallas will want to continue to push the pace tonight with the hopes of creating switches so Kyrie Irving is being defended by Brunson. On the other hand, the Knicks will push the pace as well to create the opposite matchup with Brunson being guarded by Irving. The Mavericks are playing for the third time since Sunday — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four games. They have also played all 7 of their games this season Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are outscoring their opponents by +5.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Knicks have played 8 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total against teams who are getting outscored by +3.0 or more PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Dallas Mavericks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-24-24 |
Eagles v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 37-20 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-2) has won six games in a row after their 26-18 victory against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite back on November 14th. Los Angeles (5-5) has won four of their last five games with their 28-22 victory at New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Commanders to just 264 yards of offense last week. They lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.1 total Yards-Per-Game. It often takes some time for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to get his units up to speed in his first year with a new group — but the young but talented Philly defense is learning quickly. Since their bye week in Week Six, they lead the NFL by allowing only 13.8 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up just 211.3 total YPG. The Eagles lead the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game during that span. They have also surrendered the fewest explosive plays of both 10 or more and 20 or more yards. Their defense also ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN’s numbers — and Los Angeles is still dealing with injuries on their offensive line. Now coming off extra time since playing the Thursday game last week, Fangio should have his defense rested and ready for the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford offense. On the road, Philadelphia has held their home hosts to just 270.5 total YPG which has resulted in only 16.7 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Los Angeles is another team that has steadily improved on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week Three, the Rams' defense ranks third in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. They play better defense at home at SoFi Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 315.8 total YPG which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. While Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL by allowing 2.8 points per opponent drive, they improve to fifth in the league when playing at home as they hold their opponents to just 1.8 points per drive. The Rams also rank third in the NFL with a pressure rate on the quarterback in 38% of their opponent’s dropbacks — and this is an area where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vulnerable. Hurts averages 9.7 YPA when throwing in a clean pocket — but that number drops to just 5.7 YPA when under pressure which ranks 25th in the NFL. And while the Eagles' offensive line has the reputation of still being an elite unit without their now-retired center Jason Kelce, they are allowing Hurts to be pressured in 42% of his dropbacks. The Philly offense has been elevated with the acquisition of running back Saquon Barkley. They average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry as a team which is generating a league-leading 174.3 rushing YPG. But the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-21-24 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 37 | Top | 19-24 |
Loss | -114 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 18-16 upset win as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (2-8) has lost two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 35-14 upset loss at New Orleans on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I know it is ugly to invest in the Under when the number drops into the 30s — but that is kind of the point. The public likes to bet the Over as it is — and banking on the Over looks even easier when the number is this low. Keep in mind, since 2020 the Under is 35-15-1 in NFL games when the Total is set no higher than 37. Now I am not a zombie to empirical trends like this. For me, it is a starting point rather than an ending point. When then considering the weather forecast tonight, the case strengthens for expecting a very low-scoring game. There is a 90% chance for precipitation with the temperature dropping into the 30s — so even snow is a possibility. These conditions likely mean conservative game plans from both teams. For the Steelers, that means plenty of running the football and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much and risk turning the ball over. As it is, this has been the approach with Wilson under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh is passing the ball 7% below baseline NFL expectations given the down-and-distance situation — and they are passing the ball 11% less on first down relative to NFL expectations. Wilson has been successful with his moonball deep passes to wide receiver George Pickens — but there are a few reasons to suspect this connection will be stymied tonight. The weather will make it more difficult to complete long bombs. Pickens will also likely struggle against Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward who ranks second of 117 qualifying cornerbacks by holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 44% completion percentage when he is targeted. The Steelers are scoring more since Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback — but the offense has not been efficient. Pittsburgh ranks just 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per play with Wilson with the offense too often simply boom-or-bust with his moon shots. They rank outside the top-15 in both EPA per pass attempt and EPA per rushing attempt — so even the notion that Wilson’s play-action game has unlocked running back Najee Harris is disputed by the deeper analytics. Furthermore, Wilson has not been effective in the Red Zone — he has completed only 29% of his passes inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Not only is that his lowest completion percentage in the Red Zone in his career, but it is almost 20% lower than his number last year in Denver which was one of the reasons that Sean Payton concluded that it would be better to pay him $50 million to play elsewhere. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Ravens — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. Cleveland has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games. While the offense has been better since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson who suffered a season-ending injury, the former Florida State and Tampa Bay quarterback has not fared well when playing in cold weather. In his five career starts when the weather was below 50 degrees, his teams have scored only 15.3 Points-Per-Game and never more than 20 points. Now Winston faces a Steel Curtain defense that is holding their home hosts to just 279.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.6 Points-Per-Game. The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Even with the low-number, the evidence leads the Under tonight — especially since either one of these teams could struggle to reach double-digits. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals — and the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-19-24 |
Pelicans v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 91-132 |
Push | 0 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-10) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 104-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Dallas (7-7) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 121-119 upset win at Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks were without Luka Doncic against the Thunder — but they did get back P.J. Washington in that game who is one of their best defensive players who they were without due to injury during their four-game losing streak. Dallas nailed 11 of their 27 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage — and it was the first time they shot better than 33% from 3-point range in their last seven games. They were also very fortunate to get to the free throw line 36 times from which they scored 30 of their points. The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Doncic is questionable again tonight with his right knee contusion — and head coach Jason Kidd may elect to rest him against the M*A*S*H unit that is this Pelicans team right now. For the purposes of this play, I am assuming Doncic goes — but I will be more than content if he does not play. Dallas scores -5.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the court this season — and they allow +0.4 more points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. The Mavs rank eighth in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.0 — and they improve to third in the league when playing at home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.8. Dallas has played 8 of their 10 games at home Under the Total this season — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have also played 8 of their 10 games Under the Total this season when favored. New Orleans does not have healthy guards on their active roster right now. Overall, they are without Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, DeJounte Murray, Jose, Alvarado, Herb Jones, and Jordan Hawkins. Head coach Willie Green’s response to the lack of ball-handlers and play-makers is to slow the pace down. They are averaging only 93.70 adjusted possessions per game in their last five games which is the slowest rate in the NBA. Brandon Ingram is the primary ball-handler with the burden of the offense on his shoulders. They rank 29th in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 102.8 in their last five games. But the play of their defense has improved with the slower pace. While they rank 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 117.2 this season, they rank 12th with a 112.2 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last five games. Their last three games have seen no more than 203 combined points — and two of those three games saw no more than 195 combined points scored. The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have seen the Under go 20-10-1 in their 31 games as a double-digit favorite with Kidd as their head coach including 9 Unders in their last 12 games at home when laying ten or more points. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-17-24 |
Bengals v. Chargers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-31 loss at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog back on November 7th. Los Angeles (6-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-17 win against Tennessee as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred grinding style of play that emphasizes the Chargers rushing attack usually dictates the tone of the game. Their games are averaging just 33.8 combined points scored per game — and the 44 combined points scored last week was their highest combined point total of the season. They rank just 20th in the league in Big Plays. The commitment to run the football has helped keep their talented defense fresh — and first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continues to be outstanding coaching up the defense after serving in the same capacity for Harbaugh the previous two seasons at Michigan. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 13.1 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up only three rushing touchdowns. This defense ranks third in the league in the following categories: 3.4 Sacks-Per-Game; Adjusted Net Passing Yards Allowed; Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They rank fifth in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They rank sixth by holding their opponents to just 302.1 total YPG. Nick Bosa’s name was removed from the injury report this week — and while Khalil Mack is listed as questionable, he has declared that he expects to play. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win at home. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing their last game on a Thursday. The Bengals' defense has been playing better lately as they had held four straight opponents to 314.8 YPG before their rematch with the Ravens last week. Trey Hendrickson is expected to play tonight despite dealing with a neck injury. Don’t be surprised if they slow down the Chargers’ ground game since they rank sixth in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Chargers are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 PPG — and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. Los Angeles allows their opponents to generate 4.7 YPC — and Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are scoring 27.0 PPG and giving up 26.2 PPG — and the Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who allow 24 or more PPG. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-14-24 |
Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 50 | Top | 18-26 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only gained 242 yards of offense last week with rookie phenom Jayden Daniels only completing 17 of 34 passes for just 202 yards. He gained just five yards on the ground on three carries and no scrambles. One dynamic I have been on alert for is how this Washington offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would continue to develop in the second half of the season. Kingsbury earned the reputation as the head coach in Arizona as someone who did not continue to innovate and adapt in the second half of the season. Defensive head coaches catchup to his concepts — and his Cardinals’ teams saw a reduction in offensive production in the second half of the season. Daniels is only averaging 195.5 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last two games — and he has thrown for no more than 219 yards in six of his nine starts. But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. His teams have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in Weeks 10 through 13. Philadelphia held the Cowboys to only 2.6 Yards-Per-Play last week which resulted in just 146 yards of offense. The young Eagles defense appears to be maturing under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have not allowed more than 23 points in five straight games — and they have held four of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. Philly enjoys the third lowest opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they rank 11th in the NFL Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. And while the Commanders generate 153.5 rushing YPG, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-13-24 |
Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 213.5 | Top | 120-127 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the Milwaukee Bucks (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (5-7) has won two of their last three games after their 123-121 upset win in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog last night against Miami in the NBA Cup. Milwaukee (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 99-85 victory against Toronto as a 9-point favorite last night in their opening game in the NBA Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons are challenged with the dreaded back-to-back which requires travel to Milwaukee today — and they enter this game undermanned. Both Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Simone Fontecchi are expected to suit up tonight. Losing Hardaway in particular takes away one of their best scoring threats from the outside. As it is, Detroit has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. The Pistons allowed the Heat to make 46.5% of their shots last night which was actually their worst defensive effort in their last six games. Consistent effort and better play on the defensive end of the court have been the primary focuses of first-year head coach J.B. Bickerstaff taking over a team that was too often lax in both areas last season. Detroit ranks a solid 14th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to fifth in the league in that metric in their last six games. In their five games on the road, the Pistons are holding their home hosts to just 44.9% shooting which is resulting in only 102.8 Points-Per-Game. Detroit has played all 5 of their road games this season Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. However, scoring remains an issue for this club. They rank 20th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and on the road, they are making only 45.6% of their shots which is resulting in just 103.4 PPG. Milwaukee shot a season-low 40.4% from the field last night and they will be without Damian Lillard tonight as he recovers from a concussion. The Bucks will miss the 26.0 PPG and 6.6 Assists-Per-Game he is generating this season. The Bucks offense is struggling — they rank 21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Too often, the movement is not as crisp as it could be and the effort has been less than 100%. Bobby Portis’ decline symbolizes their problems. He is scoring only 12.5 PPG this season from 45.4% shooting and a 26.7% clip from behind the arc are all the lowest marks in his five seasons with the team. But after starting the season with only one win in their first six games, they are starting to play better in their last four contests with the biggest improvement being from their defensive effort. After holding Boston to 40.7% shooting in their previous game, they held the Raptors to 34.9% shooting last night. They rank 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season — but in their last four contests, they rank fifth in the league while holding three of their four opponents to no better than 42.9% shooting. All four of those games finished Under the Total — and Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 4 of their 5 games at home this season Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 14 games against each other Under the Total when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with UUnder the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the Milwaukee Bucks (560). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-11-24 |
Dolphins v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 23-15 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have a good young defense that is underrated and getting healthier. They lead the NFL in sacks, hits on the quarterback, and interceptions. They rank second in the league with a pressure rate of 29.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Since returning from their bye week in Week Seven, they rank second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 339.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Rams have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. Miami is without right tackle Austin Jackson — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision with a wrist injury he re-aggravated on Friday. He says he “will try” to play tonight — but the signs are not looking good. Even if he takes the field, he will probably not be 100% since catching the football requires using one’s wrist. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expectation. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road after allowing 30 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Rams are giving up 360.1 total YPG, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games under head coach Sean McVay. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-03-24 |
Colts v. Vikings OVER 45 | Top | 13-21 |
Loss | -112 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In the three games that Flacco has played this season, the Colts have scored 81 combined points for a 27.0 Points-Per-Game average. Those three games saw an average of 53 combined points scored. For the season, he has seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He was never very mobile — so there could be concern about him facing the blitz-heavy Vikings defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But Flacco brings plenty of savvy with him — and he knows he has to get the ball out early and attack the blitz. He is averaging only one sack per 21 throws this season which is much better than Richardson’s sack rate despite his great mobility. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed. They should also get plenty of production from running back Jonathan Taylor who returned from his three-game absence by rushing for 105 yards on 20 carries. The Minnesota run defense has been exposed lately as they surrendered 250 rushing yards in their last two games. The Colts' defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have suffered two straight upset losses, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. This Flores defense is showing signs of vulnerability lately having surrendered 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Vikings are giving up 263.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 235 or more passing Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 28.7 PPG at home this season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as a home favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-31-24 |
Texans v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 13-21 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans held the Colts to just 303 yards of offense in their three-point victory last week. While quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention for this team, the Houston defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans is outstanding. The Texans rank second in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. General manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level on that side of the ball. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair came over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgraded Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. So far this season, Houston already has 27 sacks — and they have another 54 hits on the quarterback and 52 tackles for loss. Now they face the aging Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 13 times in his last five games while taking another 39 hits to the quarterback over that span. The Texans are allowing only 280.3 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG in their four games on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. Now the Texans go back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. To compound matters, Stroud will be without his top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. The Texans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York held the Patriots to only 247 yards last week but discovered another way to lose. The Jets are generating only 310.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.8 Points-Per-Game. But the New York defense is giving up only 286.8 total YPG — and they are holding their visitors to just 228.0 YPG at home which is resulting in their guests scoring only 12.0 PPG. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing at home. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored — and Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-27-24 |
Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-20 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-0) remained undefeated this season after their 28-18 upset victory at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-5) has lost three games in a row after their 20-15 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the 49ers’ offense to joust 310 yards. But the Kansas City offense only managed 329 yards of offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes of that game. Patrick Mahomes only passed for 154 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The team did acquire wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this week which will help — but he will not immediately replace the production of injured wideout Rashee Rice. The defense is carrying this team. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to 306.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 18 points in four straight contests. They rank fourth in DVOA defense using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and now he faces a limited Raiders offense that he prepares against twice a season. Kansas City has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, while the Chiefs have played four straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks Five through Nine. Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in three straight games as they learn to live life without wide receiver Davante Adams. They are scoring just 15.3 PPG in those last three games. For the season, the Raiders are generating just 296.7 total YPG which is resulting in 17.7 PPG. Their offense ranks 29th in DVOA. With second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell injured, it will be Gardner Minshew back under center — he has a career-low 73.2 Quarterback Rating this season. But the Las Vegas defense has been solid under head coach Antonio Pierce. They held the Rams to just 259 yards last week — and they are giving up only 316.9 total YPG this season. Pierce knows this Chiefs offense — he was the interim coach last Christmas when the Raiders upset Kansas City by a 20-14 score. Minshew was responsible for four turnovers last week in a game that Las Vegas ended with a -3 net turnover margin — and Las Vegas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Raiders are giving up 26.1 PPG — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders against teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Kansas City is generating 350.3 YPG which is resulting in 24.3 PPG — and Las Vegas has played 4 straight Unders against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who generate 350 or more YPG. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Lastly, KC has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-24-24 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 48 | Top | 20-30 |
Loss | -108 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings surrendered 31 points last week which was the second time all season they have given up more than 17 points this season. When not playing the Lions or Green Bay, then Minnesota is only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense ranks number one in the NFL in both Run Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. On the road, the Vikings are surrendering just 319.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. Los Angeles only generated 259 yards last week with one of their touchdowns coming from a 33-yard fumble recovery. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). But the team did not activate starting tackle Joe Noteboom from the injured list — and the porous offensive line has played a big role in holding back their offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 114 throws. They have scored more than 20 points only once this season. But the defense continues to improve — especially since Week Five after cornerback Tre’Davious White was benched. The Rams held Green Bay to just 323 total yards two weeks ago before limiting the Raiders to 317 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total. And while the Vikings are allowing 260.8 passing YPG, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 235 or more passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-22-24 |
UTEP v. Louisiana Tech OVER 48.5 | Top | 10-14 |
Loss | -115 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). THE SITUATION: UTEP (1-6) snapped their six-game losing streak to start the season with a 30-21 upset victory as a 7-point underdog last Wednesday. Louisiana Tech (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after a 33-30 loss in overtime at New Mexico State last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent going into their bye week at the end of last month. Third-year head coach Sonny Cumbie took advantage of that reset by benching junior Jack Turner and turning to redshirt freshman Evan Bullock at quarterback. Louisiana Tech responded by scoring 48 points in a 27-point victory at home against Middle Tennessee. Their 30 points were not enough to stave off the upset loss to the Aggies last week — but the Bulldogs have played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss in their last game. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games in October Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Conference USA rivals. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. On paper, the Bulldogs are playing much better defense than they did last season. They have held four of their six opponents to 23 or fewer points — and they rank 19th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. But they have benefited from an easy strength of schedule so far with four of their opponents ranked 117th or worse in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating system. UTEP generated 372 yards and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week in their nine-point upset win against the Golden Panthers. The Miners go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is generating 254.5 passing Yards-Per-Game this season — and UTEP has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. The Miners are giving up 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bulldogs have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 15-37 |
Loss | -111 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-18-24 |
Yankees v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams in Game Four of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: New York (99-70) had won four games in a row before their 7-5 loss in ten innings on the road against the Guardians on Thursday. Cleveland (96-73) had lost the first two games in this series before that victory yesterday to make this a 2-1 series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games at home. Williams gets the ball tonight after posting a disappointing 3-10 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 16 starts in the regular season. The right-hander posted a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 starts in his rookie campaign last season — but an elbow injury set him back and played a significant role in his sophomore slump. He has not pitched since September 22nd so getting almost the month off may help him regain his rookie form tonight. The deeper sabermetrics suggested he should have seen better results. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.14. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.19 and 4.12 moving forward from his 2024 numbers. Cleveland has played 12 of their 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record with Williams on the mound. They have also played 11 of their 17 games Under the Total with Williams starting in a night game. He faces a Yankees team that ranked 18th in MLB since September 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. New York has played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total on the road. They counter with Gil who had a 15-7 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 29 starts in the regular season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road with a 3.43 ERA in 14 starts as compared to his 3.57 ERA in 15 starts at home. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when Gil is starting against a team winning 54-62% of their games. He faces a Guardians team that ranks 21st and 16th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of the starting pitchers tonight will get pulled early if they are not effective — and both bullpens are outstanding. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season. New York’s bullpen has a 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in their last seven games. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (965) and the Cleveland Guardians (966) listing both starting pitchers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-14-24 |
Bills v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | Top | 23-20 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants UNDER 49.5 | Top | 17-7 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-12-24 |
Tigers v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-7 |
Loss | -120 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 1:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. THE SITUATION: Detroit (90-78) had won two games in a row in this best-of-five series before their 5-4 loss at home in Game Four on Thursday. Cleveland (94-71) forced this climactic fifth game with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have only scored ten combined runs in their four games in this series. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. The Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after failing to score more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Tigers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games on the road, the Under is 4-0-1. The Total is set at 6 because the likely American League Cy Young Award winner takes the mound in this one. Skubal had an 18-4 record in the regular season with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 31 starts. While the deeper sabermetrics rarely project even lower ERAs than ones in that range, his underlying numbers remain quite good. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 2.70. In his two starts in this postseason, he has not given up an earned run with a 0.62 WHIP. In his last seven starts including his two in these playoffs, the left-hander has a 1.01 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. In those 44 2/3 innings, he has struck out 49 batters and has only issued three walks (not a typo). This game was moved up to the afternoon with rain expected in Cleveland later this evening — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Skubal on the mound for a day game. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after allowing four or more runs in their last game. The Guardians return home where the Under is 14-1-1 in their last 16 games at Progressive Field. Boyd gets the ball after pitching 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in his start in Game Two of this series. In his eight starts in the regular season after coming off the injured list for most of the season, the left-hander has a 2-2 record along with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His xERA was 3.10 in those eight starts. He was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in four starts as opposed to his 3.26 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in four starts on the road. His teams in his career have played 9 of his last 12 starts at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog with him on the mound. Furthermore, Boyd had a 1.74 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in his two starts in the daytime this season. He faces a Tigers team that ranked 28th in MLB in the regular season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: With everything on the line in this fifth game and the off day on Friday, both managers will have full disposal of every pitcher on the roster (including the starting pitchers) for this one — and they will be throwing as hard as possible (now more than ever). Cleveland has played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Tigers (921) and the Cleveland Guardians (922) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 36-24 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-10-24 |
Yankees v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: New York (96-69) has won three of their last four games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (89-78) looks to avoid elimination tonight by trailing this best-of-seven series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 10-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 15 games after a win. The Under is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams from the AL Central. Cole gets the ball looking to build on his 8-5 record in the regular season along with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts. He looks to bounce back from a subpar effort in Game One of this series when he allowed four runs (three earned runs) in five innings of work. The right-hander surrendered one earned run or less in four of his last five and seven of their last nine contests. In his last ten starts in the regular season, he had a 2.25 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP to regain his form as one of the best starting pitchers in MLB after dealing with injuries earlier in the year. The Yankees have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with Cole on the mound and the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Cole is making his 16th start in the postseason tonight after posing a 3.07 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in those 91 playoff innings. Kansas City has played 48 of their last 75 games Under the Total after a loss — including eight Unders in their last nine games following a loss. They have played 22 of their last 37 games at home Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. Furthermore, the Royals have played 24 of their last 37 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when listed in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Wacha who has a 13-8 record along with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. After an up-and-down start, the right-hander has posted a 2.72 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP in his last 22 starts in the regular season. He has also been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.89 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts as opposed to his 3.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have played 4 straight Unders when he is their starting pitcher trailing in a playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have scored 11 runs apiece in the first three games of this series to continue hitting slumps last month. Kansas City ranks 29th and 30th in MLB in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York ranks 18th in September in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers (after ranking in the top-ten or better in both those categories in every prior month for the rest of the season). 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (915) and the Kansas City Royals (916) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-09-24 |
Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 |
Loss | -100 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 5:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (96-69) looks to avoid elimination and force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five series after losing Game Three by a 7-2 score on Tuesday. New York (93-75) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have played 6 straight Overs after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have played 27 of their last 44 games Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. They turn to Suarez for Game Four -- he has a 12-8 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 27 starts. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.96 and 3.70 moving forward. In his six starts during the day, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has struggled in the second half of the season as he dealt with a back injury. In his last 11 starts, he had a 6.53 ERA and a 2.24 WHIP — and in his last four starts, he was saddled with a 7.80 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. He faces a Mets team that ranks third in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last contest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They counter with Quintana who has a 10-10 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 31 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.49. Both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA at 4.06 and 3.92 moving forward. The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound. They have also played 22 of their last 36 games at home at Citi Field Over the Total. The left-hander faces a Phillies team that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 36 of their last 53 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB National League East Playoffs Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-07-24 |
Saints v. Chiefs UNDER 43 | Top | 13-26 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-05-24 |
Texas Tech v. Arizona UNDER 64 | Top | 28-22 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-05-24 |
Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-69) completed their two-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in the wildcard round of the MLB playoffs with a 5-4 victory on Wednesday. Los Angeles (98-64) has won five games in a row to conclude their regular season after a 2-1 win at Colorado last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games after winning their previous contest. After playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have played 44 of their last 70 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Over is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. They have also played 37 of their last 60 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Yamamoto gets the ball tonight with a 7-2 record along with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 18 starts. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.44. He has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.88 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in ten starts as compared to his 2.06 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in eight starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total with Yamamoto on the mound. He faces a Padres team that ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has played 24 of their last 40 games Over the Total as an underdog. They counter with Cease who has a 14-11 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts. He has been at his best at home at Petco Park where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.83 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts on the road. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks third and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 32 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams using a right-handed pitcher.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NL West rivals. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (957) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (958) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-02-24 |
Mets v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (919) and the Milwaukee Brewers (920) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: New York (90-73) has won three of their last four games after taking the opening game of this best-of-three wildcard series with their 8-4 victory. Milwaukee (93-70) has lost two games in a row as they try to keep their season alive.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not giving up more than four runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 26 of their last 41 road games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Brewers are outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Runs-Per-Game, New York has played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more RPG. Manaea takes the mound with his 12-6 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.75. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.97 and a 4.04 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 0.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 1.19 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 16 starts on the road. Interestingly, his xFIP at home is 3.34 but that mark rises to a 4.77 xFIP when he is pitching on the road. He has a K%-BB% rate of 21.3% when pitching at home — but that ratio drops to just 11.6% when on the road. Manaea pitched better in the second half of the season after he adopted Chris Sale’s arm angle in his delivery. But in his last start of the regular season, he got hit hard — and it was against this Brewers team that had great success against his best pitch which is his sinker. Milwaukee scored six runs against him (five earned) in 3 2/3 innings while banging out seven hits against him. Manaea has only pitched 3 1/3 innings in the postseason — but he has been rocked for a 24.30 ERA in those appearances. His teams have played 20 of their last 33 road games Over the Total when he is on the mound as an underdog up to +150. He faces a Brewers team that ranks fourth and seventh in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. Milwaukee has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 43-31-8 in their last 81 games at home. They counter with Montas who has a 7-11 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 30 starts. His xERA only drops slightly to 4.71 — so he is not a regression candidate. He has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 4.95 ERA along with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in 14 starts as opposed to his 4.75 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 16 starts on the road. He has only pitched one inning in the postseason in his career. He faces a Mets team that ranks 11th and 15th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won the last two meetings between these two teams — and Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB National League Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (919) and the Milwaukee Brewers (920) listing both starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-30-24 |
Seahawks v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 29-42 |
Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.
FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 | Top | 20-15 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. First-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer needs to get this defense on the same page after the early reviews were great when they held Cleveland to just 230 yards and 17 points in their opener. Getting an appearance from the Regression Gods regarding their Red Zone defense will help immensely. Dallas’ opponents have scored touchdowns on 90% of their trips inside their 20-yard line this season. The NFL average tends to be in the 55% range regarding touchdown proficiency once in the Red Zone. The Browns had the worst Red Zone defense last season with opponents scoring touchdowns in 71% of their trips inside the Cowboys’ 20-yard line — so that 90% clip is, thankfully for Dallas fans, unsustainable. Dallas ranked fifth in the league by only giving up 299.7 total Yards-Per-Game last season — and they ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Facing the new Saints offense that is leaning heavily into pre-snap motion and play-action passes in Week Two before the always difficult task for NFC teams in playing Lamar Jackson who presents such a unique threat with his legs probably explains the slow start on that side of the ball. As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The concerns about the offense are more troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength of this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants' defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Quarterback Daniel Jones posted a Passer Rating of 110 last week — but let’s not read too much into that since Pro Football Focus assigned him the third worst grade last week ahead of just Anthony Richardson and Skylar Thompson. Jones is another QB with disparate home-road splits — but Jones tends to play better away from the New York fans at MetLife Stadium. In his career 32 games on the road, Jones has a 91.2 QBR while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 213.2 passing YPG — and he has 39 touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions. But in his 31 career games at home, his QBR drops to 78.6 with a 63.6% completion percentage and a 202.9 passing YPG mark — and he has thrown 27 touchdown passes while throwing 28 picks.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-25-24 |
Rangers v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 5-1 |
Loss | -115 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (973) and the Oakland A’s (974) listing both starting pitchers Cody Bradford and Brady Basso. THE SITUATION: Texas (74-83) has lost four of their last five games after their 5-4 loss on the road against the A’s last night. Oakland (68-89) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have surrendered at least five runs in four straight games as well as eight of their last ten contests. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after losing their previous game. The Over is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 38-46% range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in that 38-46% range. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. Bradford gets the ball looking to build on his 6-3 record along with a 3.59 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts). The deeper sabermetrics suggest he has been overachieving a bit. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.72 and 3.81 moving forward. He has been at his best at home, he enjoys a 2.25 ERA along with a 0.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 — but in his four games on the road, he has been saddled with an 8.10 ERA along with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310. The last time he pitched away from Globe Life Field, Bradford got rocked in Arizona for eight runs in just 3 2/3 innings. He faces an A’s team that ranks 11th in MLB at home in weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Basso who has a 1-0 record with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings from six appearances which includes three starts. Two of his three starts have been against the Chicago White Sox — and his third was against Detroit, so he has faced a very favorable schedule in his first three professional starts. He relies on four pitches with his change-up the least used after his curveball and slider. His four-seamer only hits 93 miles per hour -- and the deeper analytics suggest he has overachieved with it so far. In his 67 2/3 innings in Triple-A in the summer, he had a 4-3 record along with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. While his xFIP lowers to 4.26 during that span, that is not an encouraging number when now having this Rangers team that ranks eighth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 15 of their last 20 games in September Over the Total — and Oakland has played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (973) and the Oakland A’s (974) listing both starting pitchers Cody Bradford and Brady Basso. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-23-24 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 |
Push | 0 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (954) listing both starting pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (77-79) has won four games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 2-0 win at Kansas City on Sunday. Arizona (87-69) has lost two games in a row after their 10-9 loss at Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Birdsong gets the ball looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.67 ERA along with a 1.37 WHIP in six starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.55 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his eight starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks first and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in both those categories since July 1st and August 1st. Arizona has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run — and they have played 6 straight games at home after losing their previous game by only one run. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. They counter with Rodriguez who has a 3-3 record in eight starts along with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 5.32. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has been saddled with a 6.05 ERA along with a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .295 in four starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .259 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants club that ranks 11th and 13th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 30 of their last 44 games Over the Total against NL West rivals — and San Francisco has played 29 of their last 49 divisional games Over the Total. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco Giants (953) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (954) listing both starting pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-22-24 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-27 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 41-10 loss at Arizona as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco is likely missing three important pieces to their dynamic offense with running back Christian McCaffrey on the injured list, wide receiver Deebo Samuel declared out for this game, and tight end George Kittle listed as doubtful. That takes away three of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “jokers” where he can comfortably line them up in multiple offensive positions to stress the defense. Shanahan still has wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — but they are not as formidable without those other three versatile players on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy has already taken eight sacks this season. Expect a game plan similar to what the 49ers deployed against the New York Jets when they rushed for 180 yards — this game should be about smash-mouth football for the Niners after they gave up 403 yards to the Vikings last week. This remains a good 49ers defense that is only allowing 334.5 Yards-Per-Game this season. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Los Angeles is decimated with injuries. With the offensive line depleted and quarterback Matthew Stafford missing his top two wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams are likely to focus on running the ball behind Kyren Robinson and rookie Blake Corum to protect the offensive line (run blocking is easier to execute) and their veteran quarterback. The injuries have left this Los Angeles offense punchless — they are generating only 316.0 YPG this season which is resulting in 15.0 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to an NFC West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-22-24 |
Arsenal v. Manchester City UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 |
Loss | -115 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Arsenal (200197) and Manchester City (200198). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W3-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 victory against Tottenham last Sunday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Manchester City (W4-D0-L0) has won their first four matches in the EPL this season with their 2-1 victory against Brentford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in a busy stretch of matches while missing key players in their respective attacks. Arsenal is without the injured Martin Odegaard who is one of their best attacking players in transition. The Gunners have scored only six goals in their four EPL matches so far this season. They come off a scoreless draw at Atalanta on Thursday in their opening match in the UEFA Champions League. They managed only 0.8 expected goals (xG) in that match. They generated just 0.7 xG in their EPL match against Tottenham last week — but their defensive play remained outstanding. The Hotspurs engage in an aggressive pressing attack — but manager Mikel Arteta’s squad limited them to just 0.7 xG. This was an even greater accomplishment when considering they played the match without suspended midfielder Declan Rice. Arteta’s defensive schemes are brilliant in cutting off passing lanes — and he has the benefit of the best center-back defensive pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel. The Gunners have only given up one goal in EPL action so far this season. Arteta is often content to play a defensive structure that defends the low block while generating offensive from counter-attacks. This formula has led to lower-scoring matches as their last six matches across all competitions have seen no more than two combined goals scored. The Gunners have clean sheets in five of those last six matches. Man City comes off a goalless draw against Inter Milan on Wednesday in their opening match in the Champions League. The Cityzens were frustrated by Inter Milan’s deep low block that they are likely to encounter again in this match. Manager Pep Guardiola is missing the injured Kevin DeBruyne who is one of the best passers in the world. While Phil Foden is fit to make his first start in the EPL this season, his strengths are with more with his scoring prowess rather than feeling the dynamic Erling Haaland up top. They were unable to generate a shot with an xG of over 0.10 after the first ten minutes of that match. And Haaland only managed three shots in that match without DeBruyne on the pitch. Man City has scored 11 goals in EPL action — but their xG drops to 9.0 in those four matches. But the Cityzens have only concerned three goals — and they lead the EPL with just 3.54 expected Goals Allowed (xGA). Arsenal forward Kai Havertz is developing into a very cagey forward up top for Arteta which Guardiola must take into account. Havertz is a whiz at winning aerials which helps the Gunners retain possession. His threat in transition must be taken into account as well — and that will limit Man City from getting too aggressive in their pressing attack.
FINAL TAKE: Only one goal was scored in the two EPL matches between these two sides last season. In the opening match on October 8th at the Emirates, Arsenal won by a 1-0 score despite generating just 0.5 xG. Man City was without DeBruyne in that match — and they only managed four shots on target and a mere 0.4 xG. In the rematch on March 31st at the Etihad Stadium, it was a scoreless draw with Arteta’s 4-4-2 scheme limiting the Cityzens to just 1.0 xG. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200197) and Manchester City (200198). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans UNDER 46 | Top | 13-19 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-12-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-10 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 52 | Top | 20-26 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
08-23-24 |
Dolphins v. Bucs UNDER 37.5 | Top | 14-24 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (111) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (112). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-0) has won their opening two preseason games this month after their 13-6 win at home against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tampa Bay (1-1) comes off a 20-7 loss at Jacksonville as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Mike McDaniel has indicated that some starters will play tonight — but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are on the injured list so they are not likely to play. Given that, I suspect quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will probably not see much — if any — action tonight. These two teams had a joint practice on Wednesday — so Tagovailoa has already faced the first-string Buccaneers defense this week. Besides, McDaniel still has to settle the battle for the backup quarterback between Skylar Thompson and Mike White so playing both players for a half makes sense to help resolve that position battle. But Miami only managed 288 yards of offense in their victory against the Commanders. Tagovailoa completed all five of his passes and threw a touchdown pass before leaving the game. Thompson completed 8 of 15 passes but often looked antsy in the pocket. White completed 11 of 20 passes. Neither quarterback is completing even 50% of their passes in the preseason. Thompson has completed 16 of his 34 passes for just 156 yards. White has completed 15 of 34 passes for 142 yards. The Dolphins have only scored 16.5 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games — and they generated just 276.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Miami’s defense has played well — they have only given up 19 combined points in their two exhibition games. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Bowles has indicated that the starters will play in the first quarter tonight. These starters have not taken the field yet in the preseason. So while Baker Mayfield will lead the offense tonight, the play-calling will be vanilla after the joint practice on Wednesday. Kyle Trask will likely be the next quarterback to get snaps. He has been solid (but not spectacular) by completing 24 of 39 passes for 252 yards. But he has only played in three regular season games in relief and has thrown only ten passes in those contests. Jon Wolford is the third-stringer. He has completed 19 of 32 passes for 183 yards. Overall, the Buccaneers are only scoring 12.0 PPG in the preseason with Trask and Wolford taking the snaps. They are generating just 298.5 YPG. The Tampa Bay defense has only given up 34 combined points.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under McDaniel — and the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under Bowles. With the more exotic offensive looks likely practiced in the joint scrimmage on Wednesday, this exhibition game is mostly for the backups to get out of the game with injuries. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (111) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (112). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
08-17-24 |
Bills v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 9-3 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (415) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (416). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-1) lost their opening preseason game by a 33-6 score at home against Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (0-1) also lost their first preseason game in a 20-12 loss at home against Houston as a 3-point underdog last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams played an opponent that had an initial preseason game under their belts since the Bears faced the Texans in the opening Hall of Fame Game back on August 1st. Given that, the Steelers defense was impressive in holding Houston to just 255 total yards of offense. The Texans have one of the better quarterback rooms as well with veterans Davis Mills, Case, Keenum, and Tim Boyle backing up C.J. Stroud. Stroud played in that game as he completed 2 of his 4 passes before taking a seat on the bench for the backups. The Steelers also limited Houston to just 80 rushing yards in the game on 2.96 Yards-Per-Carry. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 preseason games under the head coach Mike Tomlin Under the Total. The Steelers have held their last five opponents in the preseason to just 11.2 Points-Per-Game. On the other side of the ball, Tomlin indicated that new quarterback Russell Wilson “will be a participant” in this game after he did not play last week. But I don’t expect the former Denver quarterback to take too many snaps tonight behind a work-in-progress offensive line that may have three rookies in the starting lineup. Veteran center Nate Herbig started last week but he had problems connecting with new quarterback Justin Fields who fumbled two snaps. Not sure who to blame for those snafus. Fields was sacked twice as well and he continues his disturbing trend of hanging on to the ball too long. Fields led the NFL last season in Seconds Per Pass Attempt — many of the sacks he took with Chicago were probably his fault. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott indicated that his starters will play into about half of the second quarter before giving way to the backups. Quarterback Josh Allen took the field against the Bears last week, but he only took eight snaps and threw just three passes. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over midseason for Ken Dorsey, the Bills are going to run the ball more and impose their physical will on their opponents. Allen is not going to pass the ball a lot in this one. McDermott wants better execution in the running game after they generated only 2.96 Yards-Per-Carry and gained just 77 rushing yards. Expect Buffalo to play better on defense after allowing the Bears to gain 340 yards including 141 rushing yards from 30 carries. Remember, Chicago had that Hall of Fame Game under their belts so the Bears’ offense had already competed against hostile competition this month.
FINAL TAKE: In this battle between AFC rivals, expect the offensive game plans to be even more vanilla than even the typical exhibition game. These two teams already played a joint practice on Thursday, so this follow-up exhibition will be about working on the execution of the plays deployed in that scrimmage. Lastly, there is a 91% chance of precipitation in Pittsburgh tonight. With the Thursday injury to linebacker Matt Milano on the mind of both head coaches from their joint scrimmage, look for both teams to be cautious hoping to escape this contest without further injuries. 25* NFLx AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (415) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (416). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
08-17-24 |
Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 |
Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Washington (55-68) has lost three games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Phillies in the second game of their weekend series. Philadelphia (72-50) has won three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road. Gore gets the ball amidst a brutal slump for the left-hander. For the season, Gore has a 7-10 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last nine starts since June 25th, he has been saddled with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Gore was pitching great early in the season with his four-seam fastball reaching 97 miles per hour. But his velocity has dropped to 94-95 MPH which is a big problem for the hurler who throws his fastball more than 50% of the time. Gore’s deployment of his secondary pitches is inconsistent, especially with his command. He is dealing with mechanical issues which is compounding his problems. He has been putting an average of two hitters on base per inning since the beginning of July. Early in the season, he was saddled with a sky-high BABIP with him experiencing bad luck with the batted balls put into play against him. But now his expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.57 — so we are past those expectations for positive regression. And while he has a 4.35 ERA in his 15 starts at home, that mark rises to 4.72 on the road. He faces a Phillies team that crushes left-handed pitching. Philadelphia ranks third and sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers — and they rank second in those categories over the last month since July 15th. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring fewer than four runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. Additionally, the Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home. They counter with Sanchez who is another young pitcher who was performing great early in the season but has since experienced some rough times. For the year, he has an 8-8 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 23 starts. In his last seven stars, he has been saddled with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. His strikeout rate has dropped as he has only 25 punchouts in his last 38 innings. Fatigue might be the cause of his decline this summer. The 131 1/3 innings he has logged in this season are already 32 more innings than his previous career high back last year. He had a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP last season but in his final 52 innings since the beginning of August, those numbers rose to a 4.15 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: Washington ranks last in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers — but the breakout of rookie phenom James Woods has significantly altered that dynamic. In the last month since July 15th, the Nationals rank third in MLB in both those categories. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the Philadelphia Phillies (904) listing both starting pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-28-24 |
Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 8-2 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: New York (60-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with an 11-8 victory on the road against the Red Sox. Boston (55-48) has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have scored 18 combined runs in their last two games — and they have Jazz Chisholm at the top of the lineup tonight after they acquired him from Tampa Bay on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last contest — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing six or more runs in their last game. And in their last 16 games on the road, the Bronx Bombers have played 12 of these games Over the Total. Rodon gets the ball hoping to come close to replicating his best start of the season when he allowed only one run and struck out ten in seven innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. The left-hander has been inconsistent this season — and his most recent performance may speak more about the Rays’ anemic lineup. He has a 10-7 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 21 starts — but in his previous six starts before facing Tampa Bay, he was saddled with a 0-5 record with a 9.67 ERA. Rodon has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.61 ERA along with a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .207 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.00 ERA along with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in 13 starts. Now he pitches in Fenway Park with the ominous Green Monster looming over his right shoulder. Boston has scored at least six runs in seven straight games — but they have surrendered seven or more runs in six of those seven contests. The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least six runs in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing seven or more runs in their last contest. They counter with Houck who has an 8-6 record along with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.81. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.42 and 3.25 moving forward. The left-hander has lost some effectiveness with his slider and splitter which has led to a reduction in his strikeout rate. In his last six starts, he has a 4.50 ERA with only 25 strikeouts and 14 walks in those 33 innings. In his 15 1/3 innings this month, he only has nine strikeouts. He has already surpassed his career high in innings pitched so fatigue may be the issue. Of further concern is that opposing hitters have an expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .352 against him in their last 100 plate appearances which is far above his xwOBA of .304 for the season. Houck has not been as effective at home either where he has a 2.96 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 11 starts as opposed to his 2.38 ERA and a .209 opponent’s batting average in nine starts on the road. He faces a Yankees team that ranks third in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-27-24 |
Cubs v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 9-4 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (981) and the Kansas City Royals (982) listing both starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo. THE SITUATION: Chicago (49-56) has lost three games in a row after their 6-0 loss on the road against the Royals last night. Kansas City (57-47) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs got shutout for the second time in their last three games — they have scored only two runs over that stretch of games. They have not scored more than three runs in seven straight games — and they have scored two runs or less in six of those six contests. Chicago has played 5 straight Unders after losing their previous game. They have played 6 straight Unders after scoring three runs or less in their last game. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total. And in their 24 games in Interleague play, the Under is 16-7-1 this season. Imanaga gets the ball looking to build on his 8-2 record along with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 18 starts. The breakout Japanese star slumped for a few weeks while giving up too many gopher balls — but he has righted the ship after allowing only seven earned runs in his last four starts. In his last two starts, he has a 0.69 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. A 2.86 ERA may be too ambitious to expect the rest of the way — but his expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.40. That will work — especially against a vulnerable Royals lineup. Imanaga has a 2.51 ERA in his eight starts on the road — and he sports a 2.51 ERA when pitching at night. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after scoring six or more runs. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two earned runs in their last game. The Royals have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 21 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when favored. They counter with Lugo who has a 12-4 record along with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 21 starts. Lugo is another starting pitcher who is outperforming his baseline numbers — but even if he approaches his xERA of 3.86, that’s not too shabby. The veteran 34-year-old may be one of the exceptions to the fielding independent data that tends to not like pitchers who rely on generating soft contact rather than getting whiffs. Lugo is a master of deception who is now throwing nine different pitchers to keep batters off balance. But then again, his punchouts are up in his last six starts — he has struck out 43 batters in those 39 2/3 innings to cross the strikeout-per-inning threshold. He comes off a complete game where he allowed only one earned run at home against the Chicago White Sox. He has been more effective at home where he has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts as opposed to his 2.51 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. Granted, dominating the White Sox is what every pitcher is supposed to do — but Lugo has only allowed one earned run in his last three starts at home. In those last three home starts, Lugo enjoys a 0.43 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. The Cubs rank a middling 14th and 15th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 18th and 20th in those categories against right-handed pitchers (home and road) this month.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 16 games against each other Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing at Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City. 25* MLB Interleague Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (981) and the Kansas City Royals (982) listing both starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-26-24 |
Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-0 |
Loss | -120 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. THE SITUATION: Seattle (53-51) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 2-1 loss at home to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday. Chicago (27-78) has lost 11 games in a row after a 2-1 loss at Texas yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are in tailspins for the same reason: they can’t hit. The Mariners have lost three games in a row while scoring just one run in each contest. They have not scored more than two runs in seven of their last eight games. They were having enough trouble generating runs before Julio Rodriguez suffered a high-angle sprain last weekend. The team did just trade for Randy Arozarena from Tampa Bay but he will not join the team before tomorrow. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after failing to score more than one run in their last game. But the Mariners are getting great pitching. Kirby gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 7-7 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last ten starts, the right-hander boasts a 2.06 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP. In his last five starts on the road, he sports a 2.03 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics validate his season-lone ERA. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at exactly 3.20. Both his SIERA and xFIP which rely on fielding independent data project his ERA at 3.27 each moving forward. He has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last ten starts when he gave up three earned runs against Toronto on July 7th. Chicago has not scored more than four runs in 12 straight games — and they have scored three runs or less in 11 of those games. They have two runs or less in nine of their last 11 contests — and they have scored two runs or less in six of their last seven games with four of those games seeing one run or less scored by them. The White Sox have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Thorpe who has a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in seven starts. The rookie right-hander has endured one bad start at Arizona when he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He has given up only six earned runs in his other six starts — and he has registered five straight Quality Starts. Tonight’s game will be just his third start at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA along with a 0.58 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .122. He should have success against this Seattle team that ranks 28th and 27th this month in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The White rank last in MLB this season at home against right-handed pitchers — and this is a mark that has remained remarkably consistent since they are also last in these categories since May 1st and since June 1st. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other Under the Total. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Chicago White Sox (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Drew Thorpe. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-23-24 |
Angels v. Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 5-1 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-57) has won two games in a row after their 3-1 come-from-behind victory on the road against the Mariners last night. Seattle (53-49) has lost six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Angels have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Halos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Soriano gets the start looking to replicate his last start which was against these Mariners back on July 13th when he allowed only one run and struck out five in six innings of work. That was an improvement from his first outing against them on May 31st when he gave up four runs in six innings. The rookie right-hander has the edge in this third matchup because of the not-so-dirty secret about this Seattle team: they can’t hit fastballs. The Mariners rank 28th in MLB by scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six contests. They rank 28th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 28th and 24th in those categories since the beginning of the month. To compound matters, the Mariners will be without Julio Rodriguez again with him being placed on the injured list earlier today with a right ankle sprain. Soriano has an opposing hitter ground ball rate of 60.2% which is one of the highest marks in MLB. He issues too many walks but he should be confident that he can simply throw strikes tonight. He has a 5-7 record this season with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 games (15 starts). In his last five starts, he has demonstrated improvement by producing a 3.41 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been more effective away from home where he sports a 3.09 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten appearances as opposed to his 4.78 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven games at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in their last game. The Mariners have also played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total when playing at home including 13 of their last 19 contests at home at T-Mobile Park. Seattle has held nine of their last ten opponents to four runs or less — and they have a great chance to extend that streak with Gilbert on the hill. The right-hander has a 6-5 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.87 WHI) in 20 starts. In his last eight starts since the beginning of June, he enjoys a 2.10 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. That WHIP is no typo — in his last 55 2/3 innings of work, he has given only 33 base hits and issued a mere five bases-on-balls. He should pitch well against this Angels team that ranks 26th in MLB by scoring 4.1 Runs-Per-Game — and they have not scored more than three runs in five of their last six games. Los Angeles ranks 27th and 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they have dropped to 28th in both those categories this month.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against AL West rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against the Angels. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Angels (969) and the Seattle Mariners (970) listing both starting pitchers Jose Soriano and Logan Gilbert. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-21-24 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 6-9 |
Win | 102 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Boston (53-44) has lost three of their last five games after their 7-6 loss on the road against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (58-41) has won the first two games of this series after their on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring six or more runs in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. Crawford gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 6-7 record along with his 3.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 19 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.69. Both his SIERA and xFIP that emphasize fielding independent data project his ERA to be at 3.85 and 4.06 moving forward. He faces this Dodgers lineup that ranks eighth and sixth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning their previous game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home. They counter with Paxton who has a 7-2 record along with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 17 starts. The deeper numbers are screaming regression for this left-hander. His xERA sits at 4.83. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.54 and 5.37 respectively moving forward. The Regression Gods have already made their presence felt regarding Paxton since he has a 6.13 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in his last seven starts since June. The Red Sox rank 11th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: After last night, these two teams have played 6 of their last 7 games against each other Over the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (979) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (980) listing both starting pitchers Kutter Crawford and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-14-24 |
Colombia v. Argentina UNDER 2 | Top | 0-0 |
Win | 120 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762) in the finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W4-D1-L0) reached the championship match in this tournament with their 1-0 victory against Uruguay on Wednesday. Argentina (W4-D1-L0) beat Canada by a 2-0 score to win their Semifinals match on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Colombia was down a man for the entire second half to Uruguay but they still held La Celeste to just 0.8 expected Goals (xG) in that match. Los Cafeteros have been outstanding on defense all tournament. They have only surrendered two goals in their five matches — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 2.5 surfing that span. Colombia has scored 12 goals — but their xG drops to 8.5 in their five matches. They will not have right back Daniel Munoz after he was issued a second yellow card in the Uruguay match — and he plays a key role in their attack. Munoz is one of the most active players in their counter-attack in transition. He has also scored two of their 12 goals in this tournament. Argentina is winning low-scoring matches. They have only scored eight goals in their five matches. But the key for La Albiceleste since winning the 2022 World Cup has been the play of their defense. Argentina has conceded only one goal in this tournament. They have a 0.59 non-penalty kick xGA per 90 minutes in this event. They also play elite transition defense which is where Colombia is most dangerous.
FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey, lower-scoring affairs — and with the Copa America going straight to a penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes without a 30-minute extra-time period, both sides may be cautious late in the second half to take their chances in that season. These two teams last played in a World Cup qualifying match in February of 2022 which was a low-scoring contest that Argentina won by a 1-0 score. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235761) and Argentina (235762). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-10-24 |
England v. Netherlands UNDER 2 | Top | 2-1 |
Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: England (W2-D3-L0) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament with their 5-3 victory in a penalty shootout against Switzerland after that match remained unresolved in a 1-1 score after 120 minutes last Saturday. The Netherlands (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-1 victory against Turkey in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Signal Iduna park in Dortmund, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England only managed 0.6 expected Goals (xG) against Switzerland which may be a surprise to those listening to Landon Donovan’s commentary of the match who lauded the Three Lions supposed new found aggressiveness despite their few shots on target. While less reliance on the aging Harry Kane was probably a step in the right direction, opponents are quickly double-teaming Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka when he gets the ball on the right wing. In hindsight, less reliance on Kane and more development of the attack around Saka, Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, and Manchester City’s Phil Foden (who Pep Guardiola thought was the best player in the English Premier League) would probably be preferable tactics — but it is hard for these veteran national team managers to move off the reliable strikers on their squads given the limited training time they have. The dirty little secret regarding Southgate is that learned early on in his tenure as England’s national coach in 2016 that he could not trust the back line. His conservative tactics developed from that conclusion — he is content to win low-scoring affairs where perhaps his attacking talent can steal a game late. The Three Lions have not allowed more than one goal in any of their five matches in this event. They have surrendered only 3.59 expected Goals (xG) in regulation time in their five matches. England is particularly effective in defense in transition with their midfielders quickly rolling back and against set pieces. Those are areas where the Dutch score most of their goals. But the result of these conservative tactics is a lackluster attack. The Three Lions have scored one goal or less in four of their five matches in this tournament. Even worse, they have generated less than 1.0 xG in four of their five contests. They have only 3.8 xG in regulation time in their five matches at this tournament. Here comes the Netherlands who only managed 1.0 xG against a suspect Turkish defense that had surrendered at least 1.4 xG in their previous four matches. The Crescent-Stars are not a good defensive side — but they still frustrated the Dutch with their attempt to press. The Oranje have talent — but it may be the skill of their players that overcome the outdated tactical strategies of manager Ronald Koeman. After trailing by a 1-0 score, the Dutch rallied from a goal on a set piece before Turkey surrendered an own-goal in the 76th minute. The Netherlands have not generated more than 1.4 xG in three of their five matches. And it has been a relatively easy schedule for the Oranje. They scored two goals against Poland before getting blanked against France. They scored two goals in a loss against an aggressive Austria team before a dream Round of 16 draw against Romania which they beat, 3-0. The defense has been solid. Outside the match against the Austrians, they have had two clean sheets and held those two other opponents to just one goal.
FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, these are two cautious teams who are loath to make mistakes now competing against a mirror image of themselves. Since their opening match against Portugal, the Netherlands have managed 0.6 xG or less in the first half of their last four matches. Both of these managers want this match to be the first one to score wins. And if this game gets tied at 1-1, we should survive regulation time (and settle for the push) with both managers contest for extra time where perhaps they can create Big Chance scoring opportunities. 25* Euro 2024 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (225597) and the Netherlands (225598). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-09-24 |
Canada v. Argentina UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D2-L1) advanced to the Semifinals of this tournament by beating Venezuela by a 4-3 mark on penalty kicks after a 1-1 result in regulation time on Friday. Argentina (W3-D1-L0) defeated Ecuador in a shootout by a 4-2 margin after a 1-1 score in regulation on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada only generated 0.9 expected Goals (xG) against a Venezuela side that allowed 2.8 xG to a struggling Mexico team in the Group Stage of this tournament. Les Rouges have scored only two goals in their four matches at this event. And while they have generated 5.8 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will continue to be without Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing better and better defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next five matches. Only Argentina and now Venezuela has scored on them in this tournament. They have given up only three goals in their last five matches — and they have conceded just once in their last three contests. Argentina took a 1-0 lead in the 36th minute against Ecuador last Thursday — but they only managed 0.8 xG against La Tri who had surrendered at least 1.0 xG in two of their three Group Stage matches. And when La Albiceleste conceded a goal in the first minute of stoppage time, it was the first goal scored against them in their four matches in this tournament. But since winning the 2022 World Cup, only three sides have generated at least 1.0 xG against them. These two teams faced off in their opening match in Group A play with Argentina winning by a 2-0 score. It was a high-event match with 29 combined shots by both teams. Canada did find success in frustrating La Albiceleste with their pressing in the mid-block which took away the middle for Argentina. After a scoreless first half, Argentina scored in the 49th minute which put Les Rouges in an urgent situation. La Albiceleste scored their second goal in the 88th minute.
FINAL TAKE: Canada scored a goal in the first half for the first time against Venezuela across all competitions in 2024. They have still not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. Canada manager Jesse Marsch would love to take his chances in a shootout. His team is playing better defensively than they were in their previous match against Argentina on June 20th. He may elect his team to play more cautiously this time around and bank on the speed of midfielders Alphonso Davies or Jonathan David getting scoring opportunities in transition. 25* Copa America Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235749) and Argentina (235750). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-06-24 |
Turkey v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2024. THE SITUATION: Turkey (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 2-1 victory against Austria on Tuesday. The Netherlands (W2-D1-L1) advanced from the Round of 16 with a 3-0 victory against Romania on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: If styles dictate fights, the tactics of Turkish manager Vincenzo Mantella are instigating higher-scoring matches. The Crescent-Stars are playing on the front foot in this tournament — and it makes sense given the young talent at Mantella’s disposal. Two 19-year-olds, Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenas Yildiz, played a significant role in their victory against Austria — and now they get their captain back after Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu was suspected for that match due to yellow cards. Turkey has scored seven goals in their four matches. Mantella unleashed Guler against the Austrians as he was given the freedom to roam and potentially attack when facing a press. But this young team has played loose when it comes to over-aggressiveness — and this has led to yellow cards and plenty of scoring chances for their opponents. The Crescent-Stars have been whistled for 18 yellow cards already which is the second most in the history of this event. They have also surrendered six goals — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) sits at 8.0. Austria generated 3.1 expected Goals (xG) against them — but not for the outstanding goalkeeping of Mert Gunok, Turkey gives up a few more goals in that match. The Crescent-Stars have allowed 1.4 xGA in each of their four matches — and that included a match with Czechia where they gave up 1.6 xGA despite having a man-advantage from a red card issues to the Czechs in the 20th minute. Mantella has proven himself a great tactician — so I expect Turkey to score. They build possession out of the back — and they are then willing to attack vertically with long balls over the top. But they are getting beaten by the opponent’s press — and their aggressiveness risks perhaps getting a man sent off or, even worse, penalty kicks. That might be a ticking time bomb for them. The Netherlands have scored seven goals in their four matches. Against Romania, they generated 50 touches inside the Romanian area which broke a national team record for them at this event. The Oranje have scoring talent — Atletico Madrid’s Memphis Depay, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo, Borussia Dortmund’s Donyell Malek, and Liverpool center-back Virgil Van Dijk who can play up the pitch. The tactics of manager Ronald Koeman have been criticized as too passive and vanilla — but the individual talent on the pitch has still been able to shine (perhaps Koeman is crazy like a fox in this regard?). The Netherlands has a great chance to score multiple goals against this suspect Turkish backline. But they can get caught up in high-scoring affairs as evidenced by their 3-2 loss to the Austria team that the Crescent-Stars just beat.
FINAL TAKE: I’ll send out a second cliche — game scripts play a huge role regarding the over/under in international soccer, especially in the Knockout Stage. All four of Turkey’s matches have seen a goal scored in the first 30 minutes -- and in the Quarterfinals, and early goal places the losing side in an urgent situation. Each of the Crescent-Stars matches have seen at least 3.45 combined expected Goals. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three scored in regulation time. 25* Euro 2024 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Turkey (225589) and the Netherlands (225590). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-05-24 |
Canada v. Venezuela UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738) in the Quarterfinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Canada (W1-D1-L1) claimed second place in Group A after their 0-0 draw with Chile on Saturday. Venezuela (W3-D0-L0) clinched first place in Group B with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Canada has only scored one goal in this tournament. And while they have generated 4.1 expected goals (xG), there are some good reasons to take that productivity with a grain of salt. They had a man-advantage after the 27th minute against Chile — yet they only produced 1.1 xG despite enjoying that advantage for 63 minutes. They also enjoyed a man-advantage for 31 minutes in their previous match against Peru — and it was only after then that they scored their lone goal in the 74th minute in their 1-0 victory. In their two friendlies since Jesse Marsh took over as manager, the Canucks did not score against the Netherlands and France. Canada competed in their first World Cup in 2022 but scored only two goals before being knocked out after the Group Stage. Marsch has his team relying on counter-attacking in transition after taking a defensive shape — and that makes sense with his talented midfielders in Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David. But Les Rouges will miss Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan after he broke his tibia in training this week. Canada has been playing good defense. After a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s first match with the team, they have three clean sheets in their next four matches. Only Argentina has scored on them in this tournament. After that 2-0 loss, the Canucks have only given up 1.2 xG in their last two matches. Chile managed just 0.5 xG on Saturday. Venezuela scored three goals on 2.0 xG to complete their Group Stage — but that Reggae Boyz team was mentally checked after being eliminated from the Knockout Stage and playing for a lame-duck manager. They have scored six goals in this event — but two of those goals came with a man-advantage in the second half against Ecuador after getting that edge in the 22nd minute in the first half. La Vinotinto has only 4.8 xG relative to their six goals — and the context in two of their matches needs to be considered. They only had 1.2 xG when they played Mexico. But the defense has been solid — they have only conceded one goal in their last four matches across all competitions. They are getting outstanding goalkeeping from the veteran Rafael Romo who has only given up that one goal despite a 3.6 post-shot expected goals allowed projection. Venezuela is missing a key player as well — winger Darwin Machis who plays professionally for Capiz is suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card against Jamaica last week.
FINAL TAKE: Canada has not scored a goal in the first half in 2024 across all competitions — but they have not allowed a goal in the first half in their last eight matches. There is no 30-minute extra-time period in the Knockout Stage of the Copa America — tie scores are immediately resolved by the penalty kick shootout after 90 minutes. If things are deadlocked in the second half, then both sides may become committed to playing cautiously to take their chances in the shootout rather than risk surrendering a likely late winning goal. 25* Copa America Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (235737) and Venezuela (235738). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-02-24 |
Colombia v. Brazil UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726) in the Group Stage of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D0-L0) clinched a spot in the Quarterfinals after their 3-0 victory against Costa Rica on Friday. Brazil (W1-D1-L0) won their first match in this event with a 4-1 victory against Paraguay on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is going to be a lower-scoring match with both sides resting or not risking a second yellow card in this contest. Colombia is already in with their two victories — and Brazil is all but in with only miraculous results from Costa Rica putting their second-place finish in Group D in doubt. The Selecao have a +3 net goal differential in their first two matches after settling for a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica in their opening match. Costa Rica now has a -3 net goal differential after their three-goal loss to Colombia — so they would have to overcome a six-goal deficit to Brazil in their potential victory against Paraguay. By the way, Paraguay is a -0.5 goal-line favorite in that match despite having lost their first two matches. Even if the Selecao were to lose tonight by a surprising 3-0 score, Costa Rica would still need to score at least three goals tonight. Costa Rica has registered a mere 0.1 expected goals in their two matches combined — and they have yet to register a shot on target in this tournament. Brazil manager Dorival Junior can rest easy. And he certainly does not want to risk Real Madrid star forward Vinicius Junior taking the pitch tonight since he risks a suspension for the Quarterfinals if he receives a second yellow card tonight. As it is, the Brazilian attack looked sluggish against Costa Rica in that scoreless match. They did get going against Paraguay finally after going scoreless in those first 30 minutes — but that may speak more to the quality of the Paraguayan defense. The good news for the Selecao is that their defense has been quite good in this tournament after some shaky results against Spain and Mexico in friendlies earlier this year. In their last friendly on June 12th against the United States, they held the Stars and Stripes to one goal. In their two Copa America matches, they have given up only 0.9 expected goals. Colombia is likely to rest players as well since little is at stake — so Liverpool striker Luis Diaz, forward Jhon Cordoba with a yellow card in hand, and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez who suffered a knock against Costa Rica are likely to play. Los Cafeteros have scored five times in this tournament — but their expected goals fall to 3.6 xG. Colombia is a strong defensive club that has conceded only one goal in this event — and their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) is only 0.9. They have not conceded a goal in six straight matches across all competitions since playing Mexico in a friendly on December 16th. They have not allowed more than one goal in five of those last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-event match between these two sides. There have been only four combined goals between these teams in their last three clashes. The last time these teams met, Colombia won by a 2-0 score on November 16th last year in a World Cup 2026 qualifying event where both teams were starting their A-teams — and that was a 1-0 game before Los Cafeteros scored twice in the final 15 minutes. In their two previous matches in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers, only one goal was scored. 25* Copa America Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Colombia (235725) and Brazil (235726). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-24-24 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 |
Loss | -100 | 1 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. THE SITUATION: Toronto (35-42) has lost six games in a row after their 6-5 loss at Cleveland yesterday. Boston (42-36) has won seven of their last eight games after their 7-4 victory at Cincinnati on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. Bassitt gets the ball tonight with his 6-6 record along with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 15 starts. After struggling in April with opposing hitters posting a .327 batting average against him in six starts which resulted in a 5.33 ERA and a 1.89, he has been outstanding in his last nine starts. Since the beginning of May, Bassitt has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The right-hander endured a slow start last season as well where he ended April with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP — and he ended the year with a 3.60 ERA along with a 1.18 WHIP. He held the Red Sox to just two earned runs in six innings in his last start. That game was played in Toronto where Bassitt has a 3.97 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts — but those numbers drop to a 3.00 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .253 opponent’s batting average in his seven starts on the road. In his last three starts on the road over 18 innings, he has a 0.50 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 19 strikeouts. The Blue Jays have played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. Boston has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have not committed a fielding error in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two or more games in a row without an error. They turn to Houck tonight to build on his 7-5 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics do not call for much regression either with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.04 and 2.93 moving forward — and those numbers will work! In his last four starts at home, he has a 2.17 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP — and he has not given up more than one earned run in three of those four appearances at Fenway Park.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Sox only score 4.3 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 17 of their last 22 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (913) and the Boston Red Sox (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Tanner Houck. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-23-24 |
Mets v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 |
Loss | -125 | 0 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. THE SITUATION: New York has lost two of their last three games after their 8-1 loss on the road against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (37-40) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. New York continues their road trip tonight having played 22 of their last 32 games away from home Over the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Severino gets the start looking to build on his 4-2 record along with a 3.52 era and a 1.20 whip in fourteen starts. The deeper sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.54 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home as well where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in eight starts — but in his six starts on the road, he has a 4.86 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237. Last season, Severino was saddled with an 8.14 ERA along with a 1.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in eleven appearances with ten starts. The Mets have played 5 of Severino’s 6 road starts this season Over the Total. Despite their meager scoring numbers, the Cubs do rank 16th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring five or more runs. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a win by six or more runs. They counter with Assad who has a 4-2 record along with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is another prime regression candidate like Severino. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.07 and 4.04 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast that incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.07. Assad has not been as effective at home at Wrigley Field for the Cubs either in his career. In 113 2/3 innings, he has a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .254 as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in 112 innings on the road. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks second and third in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank second in both those categories since May 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Mets have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Javier Assad. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-21-24 |
Panthers v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 |
Loss | -101 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (21) and the Edmonton Oilers (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-29-8) had won six games in a row — but they have now dropped two games in a row after their 5-3 loss at home to the Oilers. Edmonton (63-35-7) can force a decisive Game Seven with a victory tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida has been anemic in even generating scoring chances in the power play in this series. The Panthers have scored only once in their 16 opportunities with a man advantage — and they have failed to score a goal in 19 of their last 20 power plays. But the Panthers' defensive-first approach has still been mostly effective. They have limited the Oilers to just 6.8 High Danger Chances and 17.6 Scoring Chances per game — and those numbers are actually lower than the 8.1 High Danger Chances and 18.0 Scoring Chances they are allowing in the postseason. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky gave up four goals in Game Five — but Florida did hold Edmonton to just 23 shots in that game. He went into that game with a 1.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage following a loss in these playoffs. If not for the short-handed goal by the Oilers early in the third period, Game Five might stay a lower-scoring contest. Instead, Edmonton took a 2-0 lead early in the second period and the game script changed with the Panthers trailing by multiple goals. Still, outside of the scoring fest in Game Four, Florida has only given up four goals at five-on-five in this series. And they have still stopped 18 of the 21 Oilers’ power plays. The Panthers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game at home where both teams scored three goals. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where eight or more goals were scored. Florida has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two games in a row. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with two or more days of rest. Edmonton returns home where they generated 9.0 High Danger Chances and 24.0 Scoring Chances per Game — and those numbers were lower than the 13.1 High Danger Chances and 27.9 Scoring Chances per Game they averaged in the regular season. Goalie Stuart Skinner has gained confidence as this series has moved on — as he did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. He has stopped 52 of the last 56 shots he has faced in the last two games for a .929 save percentage. The Oilers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two more goals. Tonight’s game is just the fifth time all season that Edmonton has scored five or more goals in two straight games — and they have played 3 of those 4 previous games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (21) and the Edmonton Oilers (22). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-15-24 |
Panthers v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-8 |
Loss | -116 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (17) and the Edmonton Oilers (18) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-28-8) has won six games in a row after their 4-3 victory on the road against the Oilers on Thursday. Edmonton (61-35-7) trails by a 0-3 margin and looks to stave off Lord Stanley’s Cup being raised on their home ice tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky did give up two goals in the third period in Game Three — but the Panthers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing two or more goals in the third period in their last game. Bobrovsky has been sensational in this series with a .953 save percentage and +4.53 Goals Saved Above Expectation. The Florida Power Play Kill Unit has also been elite as they have stopped all ten of the Oilers’ chances with the man advantage. The Panthers have stopped 90.2% of their opponent’s power plays in the postseason which is the second-best mark in the playoffs. Florida has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a win by one goal — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road by just one goal. They have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after playing a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. In their last 11 games on the road with the total set at 5.5, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. The Panthers have scored at least three goals in each of the games in this series — but they have then played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Oilers’ goaltender Stuart Skinner has struggled in this series — but Florida is also scoring on an unsustainable 15.7% of their shot attempts that reach the net. Edmonton is at its best when limiting shot attempts to help put Skinner in a better position to succeed. They only had four goals in the final three games of their series against Dallas to rally from a 2-1 deficit to take that series in six games. The Oilers had stopped 34 straight opponent power plays before the Panthers scored with the man advantage in Game Two — but they have still stopped eight of the nine opportunities with the man advantage for Florida in this series. They lead all playoff teams with an opponent Power Play Kill rate of 93.1% in the postseason. But Edmonton is struggling to score against the Panthers' physical style of play that emphasizes forechecking. The Oilers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring three goals or less in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 13 of their last 17 playoff games when leading in the series — and they have played 6 of their last 9 Game Fours in a series Under the Total. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (17) and the Edmonton Oilers (18). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-14-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs UNDER 211.5 | Top | 84-122 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (79-20) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 106-99 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (62-40) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 205 combined points scored in Game Three were the most points scored in this series. The Celtics have not allowed the Mavericks to score more than 99 points in the first three games in this series. Boston’s diversity of defensive talent is making things very difficult on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Nothing is coming easy for Doncic who has been guarded primarily by Jaylen Brown or Derrick White — although Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum have both defended him at times. Head coach Joe Mazzulla has been comfortable not double-teaming him when he is coming off pick-and-rolls given the good defensive players he has on the court. Irving comes off his best game in the series by scoring 35 points, yet Holiday and White had been doing a great job slowing him down. He made only 35.1% of his shots in Games One and Two without a made 3-pointer. The Celtics are also doing a great job defending the perimeter and taking away 3-point shots. Dallas has not taken more than 27 shots from behind the arc which was in Game One — and critics were concerned even then since taking only 32.6% of their shots from 3-point range had been their lowest percentage in the playoffs. But then the Mavericks took 26 shots from behind the arc in Game Two before attempting 25 shots from 3-point land in Game 3. The Celtics are doing a particularly good job taking away corner 3s. After taking 13% of their shots from the plum corner spot behind the arc in the playoffs coming into this series, the Mavs have taken only 4.9% of their shots from the field from the corner 3 spot. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in two straight games. They have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 37 of their last 53 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range including their last six games at home. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. While the Celtics are playing great defense, they have not exploded on the other end of the court. Credit Dallas’ play on defense that has not given up more than 107 points in this series. The Mavericks did rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. Boston has won ten games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning seven or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-02-24 |
Stars v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Edmonton Oilers (4) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-27-11) has lost the last two games of this series after their 3-1 loss at home to the Oilers on Friday. Edmonton (60-32-7) has won five of their last seven games to take a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Stars have lost their scoring punch in these last two games. After generating 2.92 to 3.68 expected goals (xG) in Games One through Three, they only managed 1.95 xG in Game Four before registering just 1.95 xG in Game Five. They have only scored three combined goals in those two losses. Some of their key players are in slumps right now. Despite his hat trick in Game Three, Jason Robertson has not scored in his other last 13 games — and he has no points since scoring those three goals. Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene have no points in this series as well. Dallas has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road after a game where they did not score more than one goal — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a loss on their home ice. They have played 20 of their last 26 games on the road after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. The Oiler's strategy of protecting their goalie Stuart Skinner with a smothering defense that is limiting shot attempts has stymied the Stars. They have not generated more than 22 shots in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after playing three or more games where they did not put more than 24 shots on net. Edmonton has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. They have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. Additionally, the Oilers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two or more goals. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Edmonton’s tactics have helped Skinner. In his last seven stars, he has a 1.92 Goals-Against-Average and a solid .908 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 7 of their last 11 sixth games in a playoff series Under the Total — and the Stars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in Game Six of a playoff series. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (3) and the Edmonton Oilers (4). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-01-24 |
Rangers v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (1) and the Florida Panthers (2) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (65-28-4) finds themselves on the brink of elimination with two straight losses in this series after their 3-2 setback at home on Thursday. Florida (63-27-8) has won seven of their last ten games while taking a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers are simply not generating enough offense in this series. They have not scored more than two goals in four of the five games in this series. They have generated only 23 shots in four of their last six contests. They had been surviving from their potent Power Play that scored on 26.4% of their opportunities in the regular season and in 40.0% of their chances with the man advantage in the first six games in the postseason. But in their last nine games, they have only scored twice in their last 24 Power Play chances for a woeful 8.3% success rate — and they are scoring only one of their 14 chances with the man advantage in this series. At five-on-five even strength in the playoffs, they rank only 12th of the 16 teams in expected Goals-For Percentage. One of the issues is that they simply do not have enough viable goal scorers. They have scored 11 goals in this series with just three players — Alexis Lafreniere, Barclay Woodrow, and Vincent Trocheck — accounting for nine of these goals. The Rangers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. And while they have surrendered at least three goals in their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in three straight games. Don’t blame goalie Igor Shesterkin — he has a .934 save percentage in this series after stopping 34 of the 36 shots he faced on Thursday. He leads all postseason goaltenders this season with +12.2 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation (GSAx). In the last two games, he has stopped 25 of the 28 High-Danger Chances from the Panthers. New York has played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Florida has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. They have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last two games. Additionally, they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. The Panthers are dominating the shot attempts battle. They have outshot the Rangers by at least 10 shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outshooting their last three opponents by at least eight shots per game. They have generated at least 37 shots in those three games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after attempting at least 33 shots in three or more games in a row. And despite the help their defense is providing in limiting shots, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is playing well with a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage in this series. He has not given up more than two goals in 12 of his 16 starts this postseason. The Panthers have played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when leading a playoff series — and the Rangers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Finals. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (1) and the Florida Panthers (2). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-01-24 |
Borussia Dortmund v. Real Madrid UNDER 3 | Top | 0-2 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202) in the UEFA Champions League Final. THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund reached the Champions League Final with their 2-0 aggregate victory against Paris Saint-Gemain last month. Real Madrid outlasted Manchester City with their 4-3 aggregate victory in the Semifinals. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium in London, England.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tactics make fights -- and both of these sides prefer to play in a defensive midblock position. They both prefer to counter-attack against press-high opponents. Neither of these head coaches is going to be anxious to blink and embrace an attacking mode. Dortmund head coach Edin Terzic is content to park the bus with his ten players and lean on his outstanding goaltender Gregor Kobel. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely have his team attack -- but only cautiously to not give Dortmund counter-attack opportunities. Perhaps the talents of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo up top can create scoring opportunities. But, part of Ancelotti's approach will be to goad Dortmund into a country attack -- from which they can perhaps counter with their Big Three getting better scoring chances with a better tactical advantage. This will be a cagey affair -- and I don't think the approach from either side changes if they give up the opening goal until late into the match. The tactical concern with getting aggressive immediately after surrendering a goal will be that it plays into the counter-attacking strength of their opponent. Both of these sides see their attack decline when playing away from home. Dortmund generated 2.45 expected Goals (xG) when playing at home in the Bundesliga -- but that mark dropped to 1.73 x when playing on the road. Real Madrid averaged 25.1 xG at home in La Liga -- but that clip dropped to 1.74 xG on the road in the Spanish top flight. Both teams also play good defense and could hang on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Dortmund used these defensive tactics against PSG in the semifinals -- and they held them (and Kylian Mbappe) scoreless. In their 12 Champions League matches this season, they gave up only nine goals -- and they generated six clean sheets. In their six Knockout Stage matches, they conceded only five goals. eal Madrid led La Liga with an expected Goals Allowed age of 1.03 -- and in their last 20 matches since the beginning of January, their xGA dropped to 0.9 xGA. Los Blancos also has the veteran Thibault Courtois as their goalkeeper in this one -- not only is he one of the best in the world, he also made nine saves against Man City in a spectacular Champions League Final in 2022.
FINAL TAKE: Only six combined goals have been scored in the last five Champions League Finals -- and the last four have seen 1-0 final scores. In the last 16 UCL Finals, 11 of these matches finished Under 2.5 -- and 5 of the last 6 UCL Finals finished Unde 2.UCL Finals combined goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (224201) and Real Madrid (224202). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
05-31-24 |
Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 9-10 |
Loss | -100 | 0 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Arizona (25-31) has lost four games in a row after their 3-2 loss on the road to the Mets in the opening game of this four-game series. New York (23-33) snapped their three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have only scored nine combined runs in their last six games — and they have not scored more than two runs in five of those contests. Arizona has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less in two games in a row. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. Montgomery gets the ball looking to build on his 3-2 record along with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.70 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .240 in three starts as opposed to his 6.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .329 in four starts at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent last year when he pitched for Texas and St. Louis. While Montgomery had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his 17 starts at home for those clubs, he was better away from home where he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.1 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 15 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that ranks 21st and 16th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. New York has scored eight combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than three runs during that span. The Mets have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total at home after a win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games at home after a victory by two runs or less. They are scoring only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .204 batting average, a .276 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .603. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total at night. They counter with Severino who has a 2-2 record along with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts. The right-hand has been better at home where he owns a 2.00 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in six starts as compared to his 5.16 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in four starts on the road. He faces a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 27th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They are only scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, they are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game with a .200 batting average, a .250 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range — and the Mets have played 35 of their last 49 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (905) and the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-29-24 |
Royals v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-1 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (34-22) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Twins in the second game of this series. Minnesota (30-24) has won two straight games and six of their last seven contests.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Royals have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by two runs or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. They are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .227 batting average, a .280 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .630. Lugo gets the start looking to continue his outstanding season — he has an 8-1 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last six starts, he sports a 1.52 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 41 1/3 innings with 47 strikeouts and just eight walks. I don't think this elite level of performance is sustainable -- but he will still be pitching well even if his ERA regresses to his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.74. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 0.75 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .145 in five starts as opposed to his 2.72 EA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .261 in six starts at home. His teams have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row at home against AL Central rivals. They are scoring only 3.8 Rruns-Pe-Game at home with a .227 batting average along with a .289 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .689. They counter with Ober who will have revenge and redemption on his mind after the Royals rocked him for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his opening start of the season on Mach 31st. The right-hander has a 5-2 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts -- and he sports a 3.02 ERA in his last nine starts after that opening disaster. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging. His xERA from Statcast which incorporates exit velocities and hard-hit rates is 3.41. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.58 and 3.92 moving forward. Ober has pitched better at home where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .167 in four starts as opposed to his 5.52 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .252 in six starts on the road including his previous start against the Royals. The Twins have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with Ober as their starting pitcher in the first half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams struggle against right-handed pitching. The Royals rank 29th in both weighted On-Base Average and weighed Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Twins rank 24th and 20th in weighted On-Base Aveeragee and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (917) and the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Bailey Ober. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
05-28-24 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 105-100 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (64-32) has lost six of their last eight games after their 116-107 loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (61-36) has won five games in a row and seven of their last eight to take a 3-0 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks took Game Three despite allowing the Timberwolves to make 50.6% which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. But they also nailed 55.9% of their shots which was their best shooting performance in their last 44 games. Dallas has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where they shot 55% or more of their shots. The Mavs are due a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their shooting in this series. While they are making 58.1% of their shots, their expected field goal percentage which measures their shot location relative to league shooting averages is just 53.0%. The Mavericks have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after winning on their home court in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning five or more games in a row -- and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total at home after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Furthermore, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s -- and they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. They have also played 33 of their last 50 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last six contests by allowing the Mavericks to make 55.9%. of their shots. They did nail 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting performance in their last nine contests. The Timberwolves have not covered the point spread in this series -- and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. All three games in this series have finished Over the Total -- and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
05-27-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 223 | Top | 105-102 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (75-20) has won six games in a row after their 114-111 victory on the road as a 7-point road favorite on Saturday. Indiana (55-44) has lost four of their last six games while dropping the first three games in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This decision is largely a contrarian reaction to the fact that both of these teams have played five straight Overs coming into this Game Four. But there is more. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported at 5 PM ET that he thinks that it is “unlikely” that Tyrese Haliburton will attempt to play tonight with him being listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. While Haliburton wants to play, management sees the big picture with their franchise player and will unlikely want to risk a more serious injury with this series all but decided. We were on the Pacers in Game Three despite not having Haliburton play. They made 50.5% of their shots and built a 15-point lead. They had an eight-point lead late in the game — but they managed to blow that advantage to lose for the third straight time in this series. Losing their best player is bad enough, but the other resulting concern is that Indiana’s shot profile is simply unsustainable to score 111 points (even when playing at a fast tempo). Haliburton plays a critical role in the spacing in their half-court offense for their 3-point shooting. They only made 4 of 20 shots from behind the arc on Friday — not only is a 20% clip not going to get it done, but neither is taking only 21% of their shots from the field from 3-point range in 2024. The Pacers took 46% of their shots from midrange — and only 32% of their shots came at the rim. Overall, the Pacers only took 54% of their shots either at the rim or behind the 3-point line. They stayed competitive in the game because they shot 59.2% inside the arc — but that is simply not sustainable especially when not attacking the rim. Boston has arguably been outplayed in two of three games in this series. They need to use this game to play harder on defense. Indiana has shot at least 50.5% from the field in each game in this series. The Celtics have allowed four straight opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing four or more straight opponents to make at least 47.5% from the field. Boston has played five straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing five or more Overs in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. FINAL TAKE: The Celtics are outscoring their opponents by +11.1 Points-Per-Game this season — and that helps trigger an empirical angle supporting the Under that has been 76% effective. In games with the Total set at 220 or higher, when a team is outscoring their opponents by at least +6 PPG and has played five or more Overs in a row, that game finished Under the Total in 32 of these last 42 situations. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-19-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 | Top | 130-109 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with their 116-103 victory as a 5-point favorite at home on Friday. New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 17 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread victory. They have played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a win at home by 10 or more points. Now they go back on the road where they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s. Additionally, the Pacers have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total in a road game in the playoffs where they could potentially close out the series. New York has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Knicks return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when playing with revenge from a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-18-24 |
Canucks v. Oilers UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 |
Push | 0 | 1 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (25) and the Edmonton Oilers (26) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vancouver (51-26-10) has won two of the last three games to take a 3-2 series lead. Edmonton (55-30-7) returns home looking to stave off elimination and force a Game Seven. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is becoming a defensive series with each of the last two games only seeing five combined goals scored. Vancouver goaltender Arturs Silovs has not allowed more than three goals in the last three games in this series as he gets more comfortable between the pipes for this team playing for the injured Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith. He has a .918 save percentage in the last three games in this series. The Canucks are doing a good job of limiting the scoring chances of the Oilers. They rank second of the seven remaining NHL teams in the playoffs in High Danger Chances allowed. Vancouver has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total after a win by just one goal. Edmonton has played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total this season when following a loss on the road by just one goal. The Oilers have also played 26 of their last 45 games Under the Total following an Under in their last game. Stuart Skinner returns as Edmonton’s starting goaltender after getting benched in Game Three. He has struggled — but getting the time off should help his physical and mental state. He did play better at home in the regular season where he enjoyed a 2.49 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage in 32 starts. FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have played 8 of their last 13 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and the Canucks have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vancouver Canucks (25) and the Edmonton Oilers (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-18-24 |
Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 | Top | 116-117 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (63-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 104-92 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (57-36) can close things out tonight given their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder allowed the Mavericks to make 52.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City ranked fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season — and they have still held five of their last seven opponents to no higher than 42.9% shooting. The Thunder have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they rank just 11th of the 16 teams that made the playoffs with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 103.6. They are making only 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc against the Mavericks in this series. The Thunder have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last six games by making 52.6% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 34 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset victory. Dallas has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. The Mavs have won five of their last seven games — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they rank only 10th of the 16 playoff teams in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this postseason. Dallas has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Yea with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-15-24 |
Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 |
Loss | -124 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Dallas Stars (10) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (55-29-7) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 5-1 loss at home to the Stars on Monday. Dallas (59-24-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 3-1 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche got shellshocked an hour before the puck dropped on Monday with the news that Vareri Nichushkin got suspended for six months for what appears to be another substance abuse violation for the troubled Russian. He was leading the team with nine goals in the postseason. He missed time for some sketchiness in last year’s playoffs — and this may be the final straw for him with the organization. But his absence leaves Colorado without their fourth-leading scorer in the regular season. The Avalanche was also without top blue-line defenseman Devon Toews who was ill and missed Game Four — he should be back on the ice tonight. Colorado has scored only one goal in each of their last two games — and their recipe for success is likely to be more defensive-minded to protect their embattled goaltender Alexandar Georgiev after giving up nine combined goals in their last two games. The Avalanche have surrendered at least three goals in five straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing three or more goals in five or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by two or more goals. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row at home. Colorado has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Dallas has not given up more than two goals in seven of their last nine games. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger who has a .923 save percentage in 11 postseason games — and he has registered +4.8 Goals Saved Above Expectation in those games. The Stars have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row by more than one goal. Dallas has scored at least four in each of their last three victories which have all been by multiple goals — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring four or more goals in three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Stars have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning on the road by two or more goals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two or more games on the road by more than one goal. FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (9) and the Dallas Stars (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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