02-18-25 |
Central Arkansas v. Queens NC OVER 142.5 | Top | 72-89 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). THE SITUATION: Central Arkansas (7-20) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 84-83 upset win in overtime at home against North Florida as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Queens University-Charlotte (16-11) has lost two of their last three games after their 86-80 loss in overtime at Eastern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears held North Florida to 37.3% shooting which was their second-best defensive effort in their last 24 contests. Central Arkansas has played 4 straight Overs on the road after pulling off an upset victory. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. The Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation that ranks 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 12th in the Atlantic Sun Conference in that metric. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 82.4 Points-Per-Game which is +5.0 more points per 100 possessions than what they are allowing at home. In conference play, they are allowing their home hosts to make 42.9% of their 3s and 62.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 11th and 12th in the Atlantic Sun. They are also scoring +8.7 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. While they do not shoot the ball well, they do rank third in the conference by pulling down 34.6% of their missed shots. Central Arkansas has played 19 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total including eight of their last 13 games this season. They have played 18 of their last 29 road games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Queens University has scored 80 or more points in four of their last five games — and while two of those games went into overtime, they scored at least 72 points in regulation time in those two games. In their last five games, they are making 50.4% of their shots which has resulted in 80.6 PPG. The Royals have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including seven of their last 10 games Over the Total this season. They have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss in conference play — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to an Atlantic Sun rival. And while Queens has played three straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They return home where they are making 45.8% of their shots resulting in 82.3 PPG which is +5.5 more PPG than their season average. They rank third in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home against Atlantic Sun rivals. But they also rank eighth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency against conference opponents — and they are giving up +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. The Royals have played 15 of their last 22 games at home Over the Total including seven of their last 10 games. They have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home with the Total set in the 140s. Central Arkansas surrenders 77.4 PPG this season — and Queens has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who give up 77 or more PPG. They have played 8 straight games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears want to avenge a 64-47 loss at home to Queens back on February 5th in an outlier low-scoring game for both teams. The Royals’ lone game in their last five where they did not score at least 72 points in regulation or 80 points overall was that contest. And those 47 points were the fewest that Central Arkansas scored all season — they only made one of their 21 shots from behind the arc in that game. The Bears score 70.0 PPG this season — and they should make more 3s tonight against this Queens' team that ranks 10th in the Atlantic Sun by allowing their guests to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Bears have played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Central Arkansas Bears (306547) and the Queens University-Charlotte Royals (306548). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-17-25 |
Delaware State v. Norfolk State OVER 148 | Top | 84-96 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). THE SITUATION: Delaware State (13-10) has won five games in a row after their 90-69 victory against Howard as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Norfolk State (17-8) has won five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 75-63 victory at Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Delaware State has made 48.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 91.4 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which is resulting in 78.3 PPG which is +6.9 more points than their season average. They rank 309th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are surrendering +8.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home. They are also scoring +2.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road than at home. The Hornets have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Part of Delaware State’s problems on defense is that commits too many fouls. They rank 319th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. The Hornets pull down 35.9% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Spartans rank 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.6% of their missed shots. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a fellow Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference rival. They lead the MEAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their last five games, they are making 51.1% of their shots which has resulted in 84.0 PPG. At home, the Spartans are making 53.4% of their shots which has resulted in 86.8 PPG. They are scoring +2.4 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home. They rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they are surrendering +7.9 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. Norfolk State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home. And while they have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 41.1%, the Hornets have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Delaware State wants to avenge a 73-64 loss at home against Norfolk State on January 6th. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 7 revenge opportunities Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Delaware State Hornets (306529) and the Norfolk State Spartans (306530). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-15-25 |
Troy State v. Arkansas State UNDER 146 | Top | 71-70 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). THE SITUATION: Troy (16-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 74-56 victory at UL-Lafayette as a 10-point favorite on Thursday. Arkansas State (19-7) ended their two-game losing streak with a 101-67 victory against Southern Mississippi as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 6 gamers Under the Total after a win of 15 or more points. Troy ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay on the road where they rank 37th in the nation in that metric. They are holding their opponents to -5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.2% shooting inside the arc when playing on the road. They are holding their opponents to 41.3% shooting on the road which is resulting in just 63.7 Points-Per-Game. But they are only making 40.6% of their shots on the road which is resulting in 64.8 PPG. They only make 27.3% of their shots from behind the arc on the road, ranking 350th in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 46.8% on the road ranks 288th. The Trojans have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Troy does lead the nation by pulling down 41.1% of their missed shots when playing on the road — and that serves to slow the game down since they extend their possession with a reset shot clock more than two times per five possessions. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home Under the total after beating a conference opponent. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank fourth in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank 40th in the nation in that metric when playing at home. They are holding their guests to just 38.2% shooting when playing at home which is resulting in 63.8 PPG — and they are giving up -7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when at home versus playing on the road. The Red Wolves rank 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% — and that mark improves to a 43.2% percentage when they are playing on their home court, ranking 11th in the nation. They hold their visitors to just a 25.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking fifth lowest in the nation. But this team possesses just a 49.9% effective field goal percentage on offense this season which ranks 276th in the nation. Arkansas State has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two played on January 11th when the Red Wolves made 9 of their 23 shots from behind the arc and the Trojans nailed 10 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in Arkansas State’s 84-78 victory. Look for the Regression Gods to appear with both teams not shooting as well from distance tonight. The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Red Wolves are outscoring their opponents by +9.5 PPG, Troy has played 5 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arkansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Saturday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (679) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (680). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-15-25 |
Vermont v. Maine -2.5 | Top | 65-61 |
Loss | -105 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). THE SITUATION: Maine (16-9) has won eight of their last nine contests after their 73-50 victory against UMBC as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Vermont (14-11) has won three straight games after their 79-59 victory against New Hampshire as a 14.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Maine should build off their recent momentum in this showdown between the second and third-place teams in the America East conference. The Black Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after beating an America East rival including six of their seven contests this season. This is a dangerous team that does a couple of things very well to put them in a position to win all of their games. First, Maine ranks 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions — and that clip rises to a 23.0% mark in conference play. The Catamounts are vulnerable in this area as they rank 184th in the nation by turning the ball on 18.4% of their possessions when they are playing away from home. Second, the Black Bears lead the America East by making 39.5% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a 40.1% clip when playing at home which is the 17th-best percentage in the nation when it comes to home courts. Vermont ranks 295th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3s when they are playing away from home. Maine has a strong home-court advantage where they have an 8-1 record with an average winning margin of +23.2 net Points-Per-Game. According to one of the power ranking metrics I use, the Black Bears rank 207th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to a 143rd rank when playing on their home court. They are making 51.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in 80.9 PPG — and they are scoring +7.3 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also holding their guests to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in only 57.7 PPG — and they are giving up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on their home court. Maine has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last seven games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. The Black Bears enjoy a strong situational edge in this contest after getting the week off — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the second time in eight days. Vermont has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with just one day of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. The Catamounts made 46.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. But this is not a good offensive team that ranks 331st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 42.2% of their shots which is resulting in 66.2 PPG — and it gets even worse when they are playing on the road where they only shoot 38.4% from the field and score just 60.4 PPG. They are scoring -8.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Vermont ranks 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they drop to 272d in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have a 5-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -7.3 PPG. The Catamounts have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 130s including all three of their games on the road this season. Vermont leads the America East in defense rebounding percentage — but that is not a helpful tactic against Maine who only pulls down 20.5% of their missed shots in conference play since they sacrificed second-chance opportunities for getting back on defense.
FINAL TAKE: The Catamounts won the first meeting between these teams by a 55-49 score as a 2-point home favorite back on February 1st — but the Black Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when avenging a loss. 25* CBB America East Game of the Year with the Maine Black Bears (306604) minus the points versus the Vermont Catamounts (306603). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-14-25 |
Marist v. Siena OVER 128.5 | Top | 65-64 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). THE SITUATION: Marist (16-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-71 upset loss against Iona as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Siena (11-13) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 61-59 upset loss at Rider on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road against a fellow Metro Atlanta Athletic Conference rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home after a loss to a conference foe. Siena returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Saints rank 254th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are surrendering 73.0 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are giving up +2.4 more points per 100 possessions at home as opposed to on the road. They are scoring 77.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are scoring +5.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home versus on the road. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and that dynamic should extend the length of this game since the Red Foxes rank ninth in the conference in defensive free throw rate. Siena has played 5 straight games Over the Total when playing at home and is listed in the +/- 3-point range. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Red Foxes rank 188th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But they also rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% when playing on the road based on the strength of their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation by nailing 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. Marist has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are attempting to avenge a 72-67 loss at Marist back on January 31st — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Marist Red Foxes (221) and the Siena Saints (222). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-12-25 |
Dayton v. Fordham OVER 145.5 | Top | 93-76 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). THE SITUATION: Dayton (16-8) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 73-68 loss to VCU at home as a 1-point underdog on Friday. Fordham (11-12) has won three of their last four games after their 80-79 upset win against Rhode Island as a 1.5-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Flyers held the Rams to 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games and tied for their best defensive performance in their last 20 contests. They also only made 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Dayton has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their 7 games after a loss this season Over the Total. They have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on they go back on the road where they are giving up 74.7 Points-Per-Game which is +5.7 more PPG than their season average. While they rank 145th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall this season, they fall to 174th in that metric when playing away from home. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions on the road — and they are also scoring +4.3 more points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Flyers rank 53rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency overall this season — and they improve to ranking 27th in that metric when playing away from home. They lead the Atlantic 10 Conference by making 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 20th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-pointers when away from home. The Rams struggle with their perimeter defense when playing at home where they rank 327th in the nation by allowing their guests to nail 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Fordham also ranks 13th in the Atlantic 10 in defensive free throw rate — and Dayton ranks third in the Atlantic 10 in getting to the free throw line. The Flyers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total played in February. Fordham only made 43.5% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Rams have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after an upset victory. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. Fordham stays at home where they are scoring 81.9 PPG which is +6.1 more PPG than their season average. They are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. And while the Rams rank 14th in the Atlantic 10 and 225th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they fall to 243rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They are giving up +2.3 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home as opposed to on the road. Fordham has played 20 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total including 9 of their last 11 games at home Over the Total this season — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. In conference play, the Rams are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots which is resulting in 79.9 PPG. While the national average for possession length is 17.6 seconds, Fordham ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents averaging only 16.7 seconds per possession — a hidden metric that helps explain why they have played three straight Overs. The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Dayton has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dayton Flyers (703) and the Fordham Rams (704). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-11-25 |
Illinois-Chicago +4 v. Murray State | Top | 53-63 |
Loss | -120 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). THE SITUATION: Illinois-Chicago (15-10) has suffered three-straight upset losses after a 79-67 loss at Southern Illinois as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (12-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 74-56 win at Valparaiso as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Maybe playing the role of the underdog will get Illinois-Chicago going again. They have already pulled off two impressive upset victories against Yale and Drake this season. They only make 41.5% of their shots against the Salukis which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Flames have been a better team playing away from home this season. One of the power rankings systems I consider ranks them 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — but they improve to ranking 98th in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an 8-5 record on the road with an average winning margin of +2.7 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +5.9 points per 100 possessions when playing from home while holding their opponents to -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. They rank 21st with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9% away from home — they rank 50th by making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc and 30th with a 55.2% shooting clip inside the arc. They also rank 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 26.0% of their missed shots when they are playing on the road. Illinois-Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as a dog or as a pick ‘em. Murray State nailed 49.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held the Crusaders to 35.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last eight contests. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after playing on the road in their previous game. Murray State has been a better team on the road this season where they rank 130th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 251st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they play at home. They are just 5-5 on their home court where they rank 209th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their guests are making 52.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 274th in the country. They are giving up +3.0 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and they are scoring -5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions. The Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games at home including 7 of their 9 games this season. Three have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Murray State has not been a reliable favorite lately since they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when favored including 10 of their last 15 games when laying the points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. And while Illinois-Chicago is making 47.4% of their shots, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games against teams making 45% or more of their shots from the field.
FINAL TAKE: The Flames won the first meetings between these two teams in a 97-93 victory at home as a 3-point favorite on January 15th — and Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Illinois-Chicago Flames (635) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-04-25 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 159.5 | Top | 84-98 |
Loss | -108 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (15-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-79 upset loss to Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (16-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 92-82 loss at home against Auburn as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Razorbacks to make 55.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mark Pope should get his team to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court tonight. Kentucky has played 6 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points this season — and those six opponents averaged only 71.8 Points-Per-Game with four of those teams shooting no better than 41.8% from the field and only one shooting better than 43.9%. Going back to his previous tenure at Utah, Pope’s teams have played 8 of their 10 games in his coaching career Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Pope’s focus is mostly on the offensive end of the court — but he does have this Kentucky team playing good perimeter defense. The Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road where they are holding their opponents to 27.6% shooting from behind the arc which is the tenth-best mark in the country. Kentucky does not have a proven true point guard healthy for this showdown tonight with LaMont Butler doubtful with an injury — he is scoring 13.2 Points-Per-Game and adding 4.8 Assists-Per-Game. Kerr Kriisa would be the backup point guard but the former West Virginia and Arizona transfer is also out with an injury. The Wildcats are shooting 48.5% from the field this season which is resulting in 87.2 PPG — but those numbers drop to 43.0% shooting on the road which is resulting in 76.1 PPG. They score -8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home — but they do at least give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. Kentucky has played 7 of their 11 games this season Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and this includes all 4 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. In Pope’s 21 games on the road in his coaching career with the Total set in the 150s, 14 of those games finished Under the Total. Ole Miss allowed the Tigers to make 48.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Rebels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Ole Miss ranks 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they stay at home where they are holding their guests to 39.8% shooting which is resulting in 64.4 PPG. They are giving up -2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road. They are also scoring -13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road — and they may be undermanned tonight as well. Senior guard Matthew Murrell is questionable with an injury — he is their second-leading scorer with his 11.2 Points-Per-Game clip. As it is, the Rebels rank just tenth in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Mississippi has played 8 of their 10 games at home this season Under the Total when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Ole Miss’ Chris Beard is known as a defensive guru in his nine seasons as a head coach — and this is just his ninth game in his career when the Total was set in the 150s in a home game. In those 8 home games with the Total set from 150 to 159.5, 5 of them finished Under the Total. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (627) and the Mississippi Rebels (628). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-02-25 |
North Dakota State v. St. Thomas OVER 153 | Top | 62-79 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (16-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 72-63 upset loss to South Dakota State as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. St. Thomas (17-6) has won two games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 86-71 victory against Oral Roberts as a 13-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 37.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 contests. That performance was truly an outlier for a team that tanks second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. North Dakota State leads the nation by nailing 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are no slouches inside the arc where they rank 24th by making 56.8% of their shots. But on the other end of the court, they rank just 280th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bison have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss. They have paled 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. On the road, they are making 48.0% of their shots — including 42.5% of their 3-pointers which also leads the nation — resulting in 81.5 Points-Per-Game. More importantly, they are scoring +6.9 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home. They are also allowing their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots when playing on the road which is resulting in 75.1 PPG. They are surrendering +3.8 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. North Dakota State has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. St. Thomas made 57.1% of their shots last Wednesday which was the 12th time this season when they made at least 50% of their shots. The Tommies rank third in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. They are making 39.0% of their shots from behind at the arc and 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking eighth and ninth in the nation. But like their opponents this afternoon, they are a below-average defensive team that ranks 251st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. St. Thomas has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They stay at home where they are making 51.3% of their shots resulting in 91.3 PPG. They rank second in the country by making 43.4% of their shots from behind the arc. They are scoring +4.6 more points per 100 possessions on the road than they are at home — but they are also surrendering +9.0 more points per 100 possessions in their home games. Their guests are nailing 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 330th worst mark when assessing home court splits. The Tommies have played 17 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in February. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: In their last 22 games against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field, St. Thomas has played 15 of these games Over the Total — and they have played seven of their last nine games Over the Total under these circumstances. 25* CBB Sunday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (853) and the St. Thomas Tommies (854). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-01-25 |
South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette UNDER 135.5 | Top | 62-58 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (14-8) has lost three games in a row after their 62-58 upset loss at home against UL-Monroe as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday. UL-Lafayette (6-15) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 70-61 upset victory at Texas State as an 11.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars got upset by the Warhawks in two straight games despite being a double-digit favorite in both contests. Dissecting what happened in those losses is straightforward. Head coach Richie Riley has two main ways for his team to generate offense: fast break opportunities coming off turnovers and 3-point shooting. South Alabama leads the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and they maintain that clip for all their games which is the 38th-best mark in the nation. The Jaguars matched that 20.8% mark in their first meeting with UL-Monroe last Monday which resulted in 14 turnovers — but they only made 10 of their 39 (25.6%) shots from behind the arc in a 77-66 loss. In the rematch, South Alabama made 40.4% of their shots overall which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they still only made 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. Perhaps even worse, they only forced eight turnovers from just 12.9% of the Warhawks’ possessions in scoring just 58 points. The Jaguars have not scored more than 66 points in four straight games. But they do play good half-court defense when not forcing turnovers. UL-Monroe shot 38.3% from the field in Thursday’s game which was the best shooting effort against South Alabama in their last six games. The Jaguars rank 20th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.3% shooting inside the arc. They lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference by holding their opponents to just 28.5% shooting from behind the arc. South Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 37.2% shooting which results in 62.3 Points-Per-Game. In terms of adjusted efficiency, they are giving up -6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when away from home than at home. But they are only making 40.4% of their shots on the road which is generating only 66.0 PPG. Furthermore, they are scoring -2.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when away from home. They rank eighth in the nation by attempting 50.1% of their shots from behind the arc this season — but on the road, they are only converting on 31.0% of these shots which ranks 252nd in the nation. The Jaguars have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in hostile environments this season. They have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, South Alabama has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their gamers. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in February. UL-Lafayette made 43.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Like UL-Monroe, UL-Lafayette should limit the Jaguars' scoring opportunities on the fast break. They rank second in the Sun Belt by only turning the ball over in 13.7% of their possessions in conference play. They also do a good job of defending the perimeter. When playing at home, their guests make only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 122nd, but they do an even better job of getting their opponents off the 3-point line. They rank 35th in the nation by limiting their visitors to taking just 33.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. South Alabama is vulnerable against good outside shooting teams — they allow their opponents to take 59.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the nation. But the Ragin’ Cajuns only make 31.5% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home which ranks 276th in the nation. In their 12 games at home, they are making just 39.3% of their shots resulting in 64.6 PPG. UL-Lafeyette has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on their home court including eight of their 11 games this season. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: This game should be played at a slow pace which should contribute to what shapes up as a rock fight. South Alabama’s games average 63.2 adjusted possessions per game which ranks 345th in the nation. Their half-court defense makes it tough on their opponents who are averaging 18.9 seconds per possession which is the sixth-highest rate in the country. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 204th in the nation with their games seeing 66.6 adjusted possessions — and their opponents are averaging 18.2 seconds per possession which ranks 327th. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (773) and the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (774). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-31-25 |
Clippers v. Hornets UNDER 209 | Top | 112-104 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (27-20) has won three of their last four games after their 128-116 win at San Antonio as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (12-32) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after a 104-83 upset loss at home against Brooklyn as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hornets shot a season-low 33.7% from the field against the Nets. While I often consider low shooting efforts like that simply an outlier due for a visit from the Regression Gods, in this case, I suspect it is a canary in the coal mine given the injuries that this team is enduring right now. Brandon Miller is already out the season with a wrist injury — he was scoring 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Now LeMelo Ball is out with an ankle injury — he is scoring 28.2 PPG and adding another 7.3 Assists-Per-Game. To compound matters, Mark Williams is also out with a foot injury which takes away his 15.5 PPG scoring average. The Hornets simply lack reliable scoring threats. Charlotte has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Hornets stay at home where they are only making 42.1% of their shots which is resulting in 105.7 PPG — but they play solid defense on their home court by holding their opponents to just 108.7 PPG. They have played 18 of their last 23 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight Unders at home against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Charlotte has played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles nailed 52.7% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed San Antonio to make 48.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. The Clippers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. This is their third straight game on the road since Monday — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing for the third time on the road in five days. On the road, Los Angeles is scoring only 108.5 PPG — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road. The Hornets are getting outscored by -5.0 PPG this season — and the Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams getting outscored by -3.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: In 13 games, the Clippers are holding their Eastern Conference opponents to just 42.2% shooting which is resulting in 101.8 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total in non-conference play. The Hornets have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home in non-conference action. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (533) and the Charlotte Hornets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-29-25 |
Longwood v. Gardner-Webb OVER 148.5 | Top | 87-92 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). THE SITUATION: Longwood (16-6) has won three games in a row after their 80-54 win against USC Upstate as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Gardner-Webb (8-12) has lost three of their last four games after a 61-53 upset loss against UNC-Asheville as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Longwood played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding USC Upstate to just 37.0% shooting — and the 54 points they surrendered were the fewest of the season. But the Lancers had given up at least 74 points in five straight games before that performance. Longwood has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. The Lancers are scoring 78.6 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored at least 77 points in six straight contests. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.8% of their shots which is resulting in 76.2 PPG which is +5.5 PPG above their season average. They are also scoring 107.0 Points Per 100 Possessions away from home which is +5.9 Points Per 100 Possessions above their scoring rate at home. Longwood has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total away from home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Lancers scoring attack is at their best when they are getting to the free throw line — they rank fifth in the nation in free throw rate. The Runnin’ Bulldogs pressure the basketball — they rank 21st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.7% of their opponents’ possessions. But the flip side of this aggressiveness is that they rank 254th in defensive free throw rate. When these styles of teams clash the result is either a turnover or a foul over 50% of the time — and that means plenty of scoring opportunities either on the fast break or at the charity stripe (when the clock is stopped). Gardner-Webb only made 32.0% of their shots last week which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They also held UNC-Asheville to 36.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last eight days. They stay at home where they are making 47.7% of their shots resulting in 77.4 PPG. They are also scoring +5.7 more Points Per 100 Possessions when playing at home as opposed to playing on the road. Gardner-Webb has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while they are making 46.2% of their shots on the season, the Lancers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Longwood has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in games with the Total set in the 140s — and Gardner-Webb has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Longwood Lancers (306563) and the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306564). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-28-25 |
Baylor v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 89-93 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). THE SITUATION: BYU (13-6) has won two games in a row after their 80-52 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (13-6) has won two games in a row as well after their 76-61 win at Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has seen two recent developments that are very encouraging for them moving forward. First, freshman forward Egor Demin broke out on Saturday with 15 points, five rebounds, and seven assists. The potential lottery pick in the NBA draft demonstrated his potential in November but hit a wall the last two months. He takes on the role as a point forward who can facilitate the offense of the Cougars’ balanced scoring attack. Second, BYU has played much better on defense since Mawot Mag was inserted into the starting lineup for the thin freshman jump shooter Kanon Catchings. Mag is a 6’7 senior who offers the team a more physical presence. BYU has held their last four opponents to 1.00, 0.99, 1.02, and 0.87 Points-Per-Possession which is far below the 1.04 PPP average scoring efficiency in the Big 12. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games after a win by 15 or more points. BYU’s improved play on defense deserves attention since they are already such a good offensive basketball team. They are scoring 80.4 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. After making 58.5% of their shots against Colorado, they nailed 57.1% of their shots against the Bearcats — and it was the third time in their last four games they made at least 51.9% of their shots. Two of the Cougars' losses this season were in overtime including their most recent loss against Utah. They stay at home where they have a 10-1 record with an average winning margin of +26.3 net PPG. They are making 51.1% of their shots at home which is resulting in 87.4 PPG — and they are holding their opponents to 38.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.1 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This is a great matchup for them. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Bears crash the glass — but the Cougars rank fourth in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 23.0% of their missed shots. They also rank 34th by pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — and Baylor ranks 224th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.8% of their misses. BYU also ranks 26th by nailing 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home — and the Bears rank 331st by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of the shots from behind the arc. Baylor enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last three games against the Utes despite only making 43.9% of their shots — they failed to make more than 39.7% of their shots in their previous two games. Two of their wins this season were in overtime — so while these teams have identical records, it could easily be different results. They were down to a six-man rotation on Saturday given a concussion to Jeremy Roach and an ankle injury to Langston Love. Both players are questionable to play tonight — so the Bears may be reduced to a six-man rotation against tonight in another high-altitude game on short rest. As it is, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Bears are 12-1 at home — but they are just 5-5 on the road where they are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG. They rank 323rd away from home with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.0% — and they rank 348th by allowing these opponents to make 38.8% of their 3-pointers. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: BYU is outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG — and they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court. Baylor ranks 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. The Bears are outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams who outscore their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (652) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (651). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-25-25 |
Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine -10.5 | Top | 55-71 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-3) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in an 84-80 upset loss at UC-Riverside as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Hawai’i (12-7) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-66 loss at UC-Davis as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine allowed the Highlanders to make 45.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. They had held their previous five opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they are holding their guests to 34.8% shooting which is resulting in 61.7 Points-Per-Game. They have won all six of their games at home by an average winning margin of +23.0 PPG. They also generate +4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions on their home court. UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in all 5 of their boarded home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130s. This is a terrible matchup for the Rainbow Warriors. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation — but UC-Irvine does not prioritize crashing the glass. Hawai’i ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line — but the Anteaters rank third in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Rainbow Warriors rank 38th in the nation by making 56.3% of their shots inside the arc — but UC-Irvine ranks fourth in the nation on their home court with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.5% — and they rank second in the nation with their opponents only hitting 38.8% of their shots inside the arc at home. Hawai’i outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Anteaters have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. UC-Irvine outrebounds their opponents by +5.0 RPG — and the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including 4 of their last 5 games on the road. To compound matters, Hawai’i ranks 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions — and it gets even worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 23.4% of their possessions which is the 350th worst rate in the nation. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Anteaters are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG including five of those seven games this season.
FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season at home laying 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying 3.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Month with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (818) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (817). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-24-25 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Northern Kentucky UNDER 140 | Top | 79-59 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-7) has won three of their last four games after their 95-79 upset win against Wright State as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky (9-11) has lost four games in a row after their 78-70 upset loss at home against Wright State as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers allowed the Raiders to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 contests. Milwaukee still ranks third in the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their opponents to 44.7% shooting when playing on the road in hostile environments. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They stay on the road where they are holding their opponents to -4.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions than they are giving up when they are playing at home. But they are scoring -8.6 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions in hostile environments than at home. They are scoring 74.5 Points-Per-Game on the road which is -4.6 fewer PPG than their overall scoring average. Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games when favored or a pick ‘em including all four of those games this season. They have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January. The Panthers lead the Horizon League by pulling down 42.5% of their missed shots in conference play — and second-chance opportunities contribute to lower-scoring games since both teams end up with fewer overall possessions. Milwaukee also leads the conference in getting to the free throw line — but the Norse lead the Horizon League in defensive free throw rate so the Panthers are not likely to reach the 24 shots per game from the charity stripe they average. Northern Kentucky has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite to a Horizon League rival. This is their second game since last Wednesday — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 41.4% shooting which results in 65.7 PPG. They give up -5.2 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions at home versus on the road in hostile environments. The Norse has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 130 to 139.5. But scoring is an issue for this Northern Kentucky team that makes only 42.2% of their shots resulting in 69.3 PPG — and they are only scoring 71.7 PPG when playing at home. They rank ninth in the Horizon League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are only making 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc this season — and the Norse have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 31% of their 3-pointers. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Panthers (877) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (878). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-21-25 |
76ers v. Nuggets OVER 230.5 | Top | 109-144 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (15-26) has lost six games in a row after their 123-109 loss at Milwaukee as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (26-16) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after a 113-100 victory at Orlando as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best defensive game of the season two days ago by holding the Magic to just 37.3% shooting. Now returning home as a double-digit favorite against a banged-up Sixers team, their attention to detail on defense may not be as sharp tonight. But Denver should continue to flex their muscles on the other end of the court where they are clicking on all cylinders. They made 51.9% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. They have made at least 51.7% of their shots in six of their last seven games. The Nuggets are healthy right now — and Jamal Murray is probable to play tonight despite a nagging calf injury. Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. The 76ers are allowing their opponents to nail 48.9% of their shots — and the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. And while Philly only scores 107.5 Points-Per-Game, Denver has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are not scoring more than 108 PPG. The 76ers allowed the Bucks to make 49.4% of their shots which was actually their best defensive effort in their last four games. Their three previous opponents all made at least 53% of their shots against them. Philadelphia is banged up with Joel Embiid and Jared McCain out tonight with injuries — and Paul George is listed as questionable. Not having Embiid as a rim protector hurts the Sixers’ defensive efforts. In their last five games, their opponents are making 52.0% of their shots which is resulting in 117.0 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season average. Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. And while the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by +4.6 PPG, the 76ers have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +3.0 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +3.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (535) and the Denver Nuggets (536). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-17-25 |
Providence v. Villanova OVER 140 | Top | 73-75 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). THE SITUATION: Providence (9-9) had won two games in a row before their 84-64 loss at Creighton as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday. Villanova (11-7) has lost two games in a row after a 69-63 loss at Xavier as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 43.1% of their shots against the Musketeers — and their 63 points were the second-fewest that they have scored all season. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home again for the first time since January 8th. They are making 51.2% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 81.2 Points-Per-Game. They are also nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home. Villanova lives by-the-3 and dies by-the-3 — and things shape up for them very well tonight to score a pile of points. They rank fourth in the nation by making 41.1% of their 3-pointers — and now they host a Friars team who ranks 320th in the nation away from home with their opponents making 38.1% of their shots behind the arc. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Villanova ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are only 169th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Providence ranks 106th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they are not likely to slow the Wildcats down tonight. They allowed the Bluejays to make 51.6% of their shots which was the second bad defensive game they have played in their last four games after UConn made 56.3% of their shots against them less than two weeks ago. But the Friars only made 38.2% of their shots against Creighton which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. Providence has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road to a Big East rival. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. The Friars should score their share of points by crashing the glass tonight. They rank 39th in the nation by pulling down 35.2% of their missed shots — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Wildcats. Villanova ranks 117th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.6% of their missed shots — and their Big 12 opponents have pulled down 29.2% of their misses. Providence has played 10 of their last 15 games away from home Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a dog this season. Additionally, they have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And in their last 12 games in January, they have played 9 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Friars are holding their opponents to 41.5% shooting this season — but Villanova has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Providence Friars (879) and the Villanova Wildcats (880). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-16-25 |
Marshall v. James Madison -6.5 | Top | 64-67 |
Loss | -108 | 1 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). THE SITUATION: James Madison (9-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-66 loss at Appalachian State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Marshall (10-8) has won three of their last four contests after their 81-69 victory against Georgia Southern as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: James Madison comes off what was probably the worst game of their season. They only made 34.8% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games and second-lowest of the season. They allowed the Mountaineers to nail 53.8% of their shots as well which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 contests. The Dukes should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +16.0 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their guests to just 39.3% shooting which is resulting in 64.5 PPG — and they are making 48.7% of their shots at home which is generating 80.5 PPG in front of their home fans. James Madison has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. The Dukes are a good rebounding team that is outrebounding their opponents by +6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. They rank 77th in the nation by pulling down 33.7% of their shots. They also rank 39th by holding their opponents to 26.3% of their missed shots. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all seven of those games played on the road. The Thundering Herd thrives at 3-point defense — but that is not an area of strength for the Dukes. Marshall shot 50% from the field in their win against Georgia Southern which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games this season after winning at home in their last game. The other thing that Marshall does well is getting to the free throw line where they lead the Sun Belt Conference and 41st in the nation. But they are last in the conference by converting on only 62.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. Interior defense is a concern for this team as they are last in the Sun Belt with their opponents making 55.9% of their shots inside the arc. They have lost all six of their true road games by an average losing margin of -12.8 PPG. They are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.0% of their shots which is resulting in 79.5 PPG — and they are only making 39.0% of their shots and scoring 66.7 PPG. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games as an underdog including five of their six games this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd won the first meeting between these two teams with an 80-78 victory as a 1-point home favorite on January 9th — but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is with the James Madison Dukes (794) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (793). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-25-24 |
Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 115-113 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (593) and the Golden State Warriors (594). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-114 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Golden State (15-13) has lost four of their last five games after their 111-105 upset loss against Indiana as a 6-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers nailed 54.1% of their shots on Monday which was the highest shooting effort in their last 15 games. But they allowed the Pistons to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. Despite that subpar defensive performance, Los Angeles has still held their last five opponents to just 43.8% shooting which resulted in 104.6 Points-Per-Game which is -9.2 fewer PPG than their season average. But the Lakers are only making 45.3% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 106.6 PPG which is -5.6 fewer PPG than their season average. Rookie head coach and former podcaster J.J. Reddick was supposed to be an offensive guru for this team after espousing so many philosophies on the subject in his previous job (such as “shoot more 3” — so cutting edge!). But after posting an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.4 last year, that mark has dropped to 111.5 for Los Angeles this season. On the road, the Lakers are making only 45.2% of their shots resulting in 107.4 PPG which is -3.8 fewer PPG than their season average. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in that range. They have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their contests. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are relatively well rested after the NBA Cup time off two weeks ago with this being their fourth game since December 15th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Golden State is playing for just the fourth time since December 15th as well — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. The team acquired Dennis Schroder to boost their scoring attack — but he has been a dud so far by averaging just 7.7 PPG and not even reaching double digits once in his first three games with the team. Steph Curry may be starting to show his age — in two of his last three games against Indiana and Memphis, he scored only 12 combined points on 2 of 20 shooting with 13 missed shots from behind the arc on 15 attempts. In their last five games, the Warriors are only making 43.4% of their shots resulting in 106.8 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Head coach Steve Kerr is getting good defensive play from his team that ranks ninth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank seventh in half-court defensive efficiency. Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers are allowing their opponents to make 47.6% of their shots — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (593) and the Golden State Warriors (594). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-18-24 |
Oklahoma v. Michigan -3 | Top | 87-86 |
Loss | -105 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711) in the Jumpman Invitational. THE SITUATION: Michigan (8-2) had won seven games in a row before their 89-87 upset loss to Arkansas as a 4-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic on December 10th. Oklahoma (10-0) has won their first ten games of the season after their 80-65 victory against Oklahoma State on a neutral court in Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan is a talented team under first-year head coach Dusty May. The Wolverines currently rank 22nd in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. They are also battle-tested with five of their ten games being played away from Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor. Their two losses to Wake Forest and then the Razorbacks were by four combined points. Their signature win was in Madison against Wisconsin in a true hostile environment — and Pomeroy ranks the Badgers as his 35th team in the country. They also beat Iowa which ranks 45th by Pomeroy. The Wolverines lost to Wake Forest in Greensville. They won their multi-team event in Fort Myers. May got the Michigan job by achieving great success at Florida Atlantic including a run to the Final Four two years ago. His style of play is effective because it prioritizes seizing additional possessions. The Wolverines rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 54th in the nation. These tactics create a reliable Plan B if their shots are not falling. But the Wolverines are an efficient team on offense. They present one of the most challenging starting lineups in the country with two seven-footers. Danny Wolf is a 7’0 transfer from Yale and the 7’1 Vladislav Goldin came over with May from FAU. These two already have terrific chemistry together and this is one of the main reasons why Michigan is making 61.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. The Wolverines are turning the ball over more than they should be — their 21.4% turnover rate is the 335th worst in the nation. This is worrisome against a Sooners’ team that ranks 19th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponent’s possessions — but that is why the point spread is so low. I am not as concerned about this because the source of their turnovers is from their big men rather than their guards — so they are not quite as vulnerable to full-court presses which is important since the top two steal artists for Oklahoma in their starting five are guards. The Wolverines also play outstanding defense — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arkansas nailed 50% of their shots against them which was Michigan’s worst defensive effort of the season. While Wake Forest made 46.4% of their shots against them in May’s second regular season game as head coach, no other team made more than Iowa’s 41.6% shots against them. May’s teams in his coaching career have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after giving up 85 or more points in their last game. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Oklahoma’s best win this season was against an Arizona team that Pomeroy ranks at 30th. Their second-best victory was against a Louisville team that Pomeroy ranks 59th. Pomeroy rates the Sooners’ strength of schedule at 315th in the nation with five of their opponents ranking 266th or worse. For comparison's sake, Pomeroy ranks the Wolverines’ schedule as the 48th most difficult so far this season with five of their opponents in his top 101 teams — and they have only played one team ranked worse than 231rd according to his metrics. I suspect this is the game where Oklahoma’s bubble is burst on their unbeaten season as they do not match up well with Michigan. They rank 254th by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. They also rank 204th with their opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc. Their ability to force turnovers will be mitigated by the Wolverines’ significant size edge with two twin towers. The Sooners do not have a player in their starting five taller than 6’7 — and while head coach Porter Moser has three players 6’10 or taller on his bench, relying on them may not be the optimal strategy. Michigan out-rebounds their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wolverines rank 52nd in the nation by assisting on 58.7% of their field goals — and they average 17 Assists-Per-Game. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average 16 or more Assists-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: May’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games in his career against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Michigan Wolverines (712) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (711). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-17-24 |
Bucks v. Thunder UNDER 216 | Top | 97-81 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (14-11) has won three games in a row as well as ten of their last 12 contests after their 110-102 win against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the NBA Cup on Saturday. Oklahoma City (20-5) has won five games in a row as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 111-96 victory against Houston as a 5.5-point favorite in their Semifinal match in the NBA Cup on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks stepped up their play on defense against the Hawks by holding them to 42.7% shooting. Head coach Doc Rivers has this group playing better on the defensive end of the court. While they rank 13th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rise to eighth in the league in that metric over their last 15 games. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, they will have a size edge in this contest. With $500K on the line in a game that will not count in the regular season standings, look for another strong effort on defense from this team. It is telling that Milwaukee had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 70% or higher. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total away from home against teams from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City held the Rockets to just 36.5% shooting on Saturday. They lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will not make it easy on the Milwaukee shooters. They give up the fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions — and the Bucks rank just 26th in the league in creating points in the paint. The Thunder also does a great job in defending the pick-and-roll which Milwaukee leans heavily on with Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard — they give up the fewest 3-point attempts in those situations. They also surrender the fifth fewest made 3-pointers in the NBA. Oklahoma City wants to make this a track meet and generate scoring opportunities in transition — but they are not very efficient in those situations as they rank just 23rd in effective Field Goal percentage (eFG). Rivers knows this and will have his team focus on protecting the basketball and making this a half-court game. The Thunder rank just 14th in eFG when playing in the half-court. Oklahoma City has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total following a straight-up win. This is their third game since December 8h — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home. And in their last 8 games as an underdog or a favorite of up to 5.5 points, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: In the knockout games in the NBA Cup this season, the average combined score has been only 208.9 points — and all five games played on a neutral court in Las Vegas in the Semifinals or Finals of this tournament going back to last year have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (539) and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals of the NBA Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-29-24 |
Kings v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 106-115 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (520) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (519). THE SITUATION: Portland (7-12) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after their 121-114 loss at Indiana as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Sacramento (9-10) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 115-104 upset win at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland is probably better than their current record. They have split their last eight games despite playing a tough schedule over that stretch — and they have recently upset both Houston and Minnesota. Overall, they have faced the third-hardest schedule in the league. They have also played 11 of their 19 games on the road. Portland is just their ninth game on their home court this season where they are 4-4 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting five or more points. They have pulled off upsets at home in three of their last four games when getting five or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They may not have Scoot Henderson who is listed as questionable with an injury — but they did get DeAndre Ayton back after he missed much of the month to injury. Rookie Donovan Clingan stepped up in his absence as a defensive specialist and shot-blocker. The Blazers are also getting a great contribution from Shaedon Sharpe who is scoring a career-high 18 Points-Per-Game. Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two or more games in a row. Sacramento made 48.9% of their shots in their upset win against the Timberwolves which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Their 115 points was the highest scoring output for them since November 16th. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after pulling off an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win on the road. Sacramento has only played the 26th most difficult schedule in the league which makes their below .500 record even more troubling. They are the only team in the NBA to have had only one game against one of the top ten teams in the league — everyone else has played a top ten team at least three times. The Kings acquired DeMar DeRozan in the offseason — but adding him into the mix has only contributed to their reliance on midrange shooting. They are in the bottom ten in both 3-point shooting and 3-point shooting rate. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: Portland wants to avenge a 111-98 loss at Sacramento as a 13-point underdog back on October 28th. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games when avenging a same-season loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season on the road. The last time these two teams played in Portland, the Blazers won by a 130-113 score back on December 26th. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month is with the Portland Trail Blazers (520) plus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (519). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-27-24 |
Knicks v. Mavs OVER 232.5 | Top | 114-129 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Dallas Mavericks (554). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7) has won five of their last six games after their 145-118 upset win at Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Dallas (10-8) has won five of their last six contests after their 129-119 upset victory at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks scored the most points in the regular season that did not go into overtime since 1980. After nailing 60.9% of their shots against the Nuggets, it is reasonable to expect the Regression Gods to appear — but the drop-off should not be significant because this New York scoring attack is cooking. The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns is opening up scoring lanes for his teammates. They have many scorers who can create their own shot. O.G. Anunoby scored 40 points on Monday — he is scoring 19.1 Points-Per-Game from 52.4% shooting and a 42.2% mark from behind the arc. Jalen Brunson is finding the right balance between being a scorer and a distributor. They have made at least 56.0% of their shots in three of their last four games — and they have scored 134 or more points in three of their last four games. Overall, the Knicks rank second with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 117.9. Only Cleveland and New York rank in the top-three in the league in both 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. They rank third in midrange shooting. They also maximize their possessions by leading the NBA with the lowest turnover margin. So, yes, I think the high-scoring is sustainable — and they have scored 123 or more points in five of their last seven games. The Knicks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after pulling off an upset win on the road. This is their fourth straight game on the road and third game since last Friday — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing the third game on the road in the last five games. They have also played 7 of their 10 games on the road Over the Total this season. Dallas made 50.0% of their shots against the Hawks on Monday — it was the third time in their last four games that they shot 50% or better from the field. They have scored at least 118 points in five straight games. But they have also given up 119 or more points in four of their last five contests. They are putting up these offensive numbers despite being without Luka Doncic has missed the last three games due to injury. Head coach Jason Kidd has his team playing a faster tempo without Doncic who prefers a slower style of play to set up his isolation game on offense. In their last three games, they have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.3 — but they also have an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 112.8. Naji Marshall has been a pleasant surprise by scoring 20 or more points in all three of those games. Dallas will want to continue to push the pace tonight with the hopes of creating switches so Kyrie Irving is being defended by Brunson. On the other hand, the Knicks will push the pace as well to create the opposite matchup with Brunson being guarded by Irving. The Mavericks are playing for the third time since Sunday — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total when playing for the third time in four games. They have also played all 7 of their games this season Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are outscoring their opponents by +5.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Knicks have played 8 of their last 12 games on the road Over the Total against teams who are getting outscored by +3.0 or more PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (553) and the Dallas Mavericks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-22-24 |
Kings -3 v. Clippers | Top | 88-104 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (551) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (552). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (8-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-108 upset loss against Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (9-7) has won three games in a row after their 104-93 upset win against Orlando as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Sacramento only made 43.5% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games and second worst mark for them all season. De’Aaron Fox had scored 109 combined points over the weekend against Minnesota and Utah — this team should benefit from getting three full days off before tonight’s game. They are also getting Domantas Sabonis back after he missed some time to injury. The Kings have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games this season following an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after an upset loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a loss by six points or less. The Kings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles made 49.4% of their shots in their upset win against the Magic which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. This will be their eighth game in the last 14 days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when playing for the eight or more time in the last 14 days. They will be without Norman Powell tonight as he deals with a hamstring injury. He is their leading scorer this season with a 23.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average — he is nailing 49% of his shots and 49% of his shots from behind the arc. The Kings are scoring 116.9 PPG — and Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home against teams scoring 116 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers upset the Kings in Sacramento in the previous meeting between these two teams by a 107-98 score as a 6.5-point road underdog on November 8th. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities to avenge a loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (551) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (552). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-19-24 |
Pelicans v. Mavs UNDER 223 | Top | 91-132 |
Push | 0 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-10) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 104-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Dallas (7-7) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 121-119 upset win at Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks were without Luka Doncic against the Thunder — but they did get back P.J. Washington in that game who is one of their best defensive players who they were without due to injury during their four-game losing streak. Dallas nailed 11 of their 27 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage — and it was the first time they shot better than 33% from 3-point range in their last seven games. They were also very fortunate to get to the free throw line 36 times from which they scored 30 of their points. The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Doncic is questionable again tonight with his right knee contusion — and head coach Jason Kidd may elect to rest him against the M*A*S*H unit that is this Pelicans team right now. For the purposes of this play, I am assuming Doncic goes — but I will be more than content if he does not play. Dallas scores -5.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the court this season — and they allow +0.4 more points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. The Mavs rank eighth in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.0 — and they improve to third in the league when playing at home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 104.8. Dallas has played 8 of their 10 games at home Under the Total this season — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have also played 8 of their 10 games Under the Total this season when favored. New Orleans does not have healthy guards on their active roster right now. Overall, they are without Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, DeJounte Murray, Jose, Alvarado, Herb Jones, and Jordan Hawkins. Head coach Willie Green’s response to the lack of ball-handlers and play-makers is to slow the pace down. They are averaging only 93.70 adjusted possessions per game in their last five games which is the slowest rate in the NBA. Brandon Ingram is the primary ball-handler with the burden of the offense on his shoulders. They rank 29th in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 102.8 in their last five games. But the play of their defense has improved with the slower pace. While they rank 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 117.2 this season, they rank 12th with a 112.2 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last five games. Their last three games have seen no more than 203 combined points — and two of those three games saw no more than 195 combined points scored. The Pelicans have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have seen the Under go 20-10-1 in their 31 games as a double-digit favorite with Kidd as their head coach including 9 Unders in their last 12 games at home when laying ten or more points. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-13-24 |
Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 213.5 | Top | 120-127 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the Milwaukee Bucks (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (5-7) has won two of their last three games after their 123-121 upset win in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog last night against Miami in the NBA Cup. Milwaukee (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 99-85 victory against Toronto as a 9-point favorite last night in their opening game in the NBA Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons are challenged with the dreaded back-to-back which requires travel to Milwaukee today — and they enter this game undermanned. Both Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Simone Fontecchi are expected to suit up tonight. Losing Hardaway in particular takes away one of their best scoring threats from the outside. As it is, Detroit has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. The Pistons allowed the Heat to make 46.5% of their shots last night which was actually their worst defensive effort in their last six games. Consistent effort and better play on the defensive end of the court have been the primary focuses of first-year head coach J.B. Bickerstaff taking over a team that was too often lax in both areas last season. Detroit ranks a solid 14th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to fifth in the league in that metric in their last six games. In their five games on the road, the Pistons are holding their home hosts to just 44.9% shooting which is resulting in only 102.8 Points-Per-Game. Detroit has played all 5 of their road games this season Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. However, scoring remains an issue for this club. They rank 20th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and on the road, they are making only 45.6% of their shots which is resulting in just 103.4 PPG. Milwaukee shot a season-low 40.4% from the field last night and they will be without Damian Lillard tonight as he recovers from a concussion. The Bucks will miss the 26.0 PPG and 6.6 Assists-Per-Game he is generating this season. The Bucks offense is struggling — they rank 21st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Too often, the movement is not as crisp as it could be and the effort has been less than 100%. Bobby Portis’ decline symbolizes their problems. He is scoring only 12.5 PPG this season from 45.4% shooting and a 26.7% clip from behind the arc are all the lowest marks in his five seasons with the team. But after starting the season with only one win in their first six games, they are starting to play better in their last four contests with the biggest improvement being from their defensive effort. After holding Boston to 40.7% shooting in their previous game, they held the Raptors to 34.9% shooting last night. They rank 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season — but in their last four contests, they rank fifth in the league while holding three of their four opponents to no better than 42.9% shooting. All four of those games finished Under the Total — and Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 4 of their 5 games at home this season Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 14 games against each other Under the Total when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with UUnder the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (559) and the Milwaukee Bucks (560). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-25-24 |
Bulls +10 v. Bucks | Top | 133-122 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (545) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season on Wednesday in a 123-111 setback at New Orleans as a 5-point underdog. Milwaukee (1-0) won their opener with a 124-109 victory at Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: There is a lot that head coach Billy Donovan can clean up for this Chicago team tonight. They turned the ball over 21 times against the Pelicans. They allowed New Orleans to take 56% of their shots at the rim — and the Pelicans made 80% of those shots. The Bulls only made 40.0% of their shots from the midrange — and they only hit 27.3% of their shots from behind the arc (non-heaves). Still, Chicago took a higher percentage of their shots at the rim which was the likely byproduct of moving on from DeMar DeRozan who took his midrange game to Sacramento. The Bulls still have Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic as the foundation of this team. They acquired Josh Giddy in the offseason and drafted Matas Buzelis in the first round of the NBA draft. Chicago has been very reliable in situations like this under Donovan. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread 4 straight road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Milwaukee had consistency issues last season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points including four of those last five circumstances. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is not at full strength with Khris Middleton out for this game with an ankle injury. Gary Trent is also questionable with an injury. As it is, the Bucks are just 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games when playing with one day of rest. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (545) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-17-24 |
Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-106 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (509) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (79-21) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped in their 122-84 upset loss as a 1-point road favorite on Friday. Dallas (63-40) still looks to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 36.2% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 54 games. They also got out-rebounded by a 52 to 31 margin to the Mavericks. The Celtics simply got outworked and outplayed — and they have had the tendency to take their foot off the gas pedal from time-to-time. But they have also been resilient after playing a clunker. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more rebounds in their last game. And while all four games in this series have finished Under the Total, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Dallas played their best game on offense in this series by making 50.5% of their shots. And by holding Boston to 36.2% shooting, they played their best game on defense in their last 48 contests. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after an upset win on their home court. And in their last 6 games after an upset win by 10 or more points, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has suggested that Kristaps Porzingis could take the court tonight in special circumstances — but I am not buying it. While they are clearly a better team when Porzingis is healthy, they remain the best team in the NBA even without him. Back at home, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 210s. 25* NBA Monday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (510) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-14-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs UNDER 211.5 | Top | 84-122 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (79-20) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 106-99 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (62-40) has lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 205 combined points scored in Game Three were the most points scored in this series. The Celtics have not allowed the Mavericks to score more than 99 points in the first three games in this series. Boston’s diversity of defensive talent is making things very difficult on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Nothing is coming easy for Doncic who has been guarded primarily by Jaylen Brown or Derrick White — although Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum have both defended him at times. Head coach Joe Mazzulla has been comfortable not double-teaming him when he is coming off pick-and-rolls given the good defensive players he has on the court. Irving comes off his best game in the series by scoring 35 points, yet Holiday and White had been doing a great job slowing him down. He made only 35.1% of his shots in Games One and Two without a made 3-pointer. The Celtics are also doing a great job defending the perimeter and taking away 3-point shots. Dallas has not taken more than 27 shots from behind the arc which was in Game One — and critics were concerned even then since taking only 32.6% of their shots from 3-point range had been their lowest percentage in the playoffs. But then the Mavericks took 26 shots from behind the arc in Game Two before attempting 25 shots from 3-point land in Game 3. The Celtics are doing a particularly good job taking away corner 3s. After taking 13% of their shots from the plum corner spot behind the arc in the playoffs coming into this series, the Mavs have taken only 4.9% of their shots from the field from the corner 3 spot. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in two straight games. They have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 37 of their last 53 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range including their last six games at home. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. While the Celtics are playing great defense, they have not exploded on the other end of the court. Credit Dallas’ play on defense that has not given up more than 107 points in this series. The Mavericks did rank second in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. Boston has won ten games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning seven or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-12-24 |
Celtics v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 106-99 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (506) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-29) has lost three of their last four games while trailing in this series by an 0-2 margin. Boston (78-20) has won nine games in a row after their 105-98 victory at home against the Mavericks as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: This point spread is fishy — and it looks very easy to take the Celtics. This is just the fourth time all season that Boston has been made an underdog by the books — and the first time since April 9th. The injury to Kristaps Porzingis is not an adequate explanation either since Dallas was initially installed as a -1.5 point favorite — and yesterday’s news that Porzingis might be out moved the line only a point. The Celtics were around 7-point favorites in Game Two — so the implication is that the books are assigning the Mavericks 8.5 or so points for having the home-court edge (or 4-4.5 points when accounting for Boston’s loss of home court). For comparison’s sake, the point spread swing was only six points from when Dallas was a 1.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves in Game Four last round to them being a 4-point road dog in Game Five at Minnesota. At this point, some bettors may see this as an opportunity to take the Celtics because of the perceived point spread value. I tend to fall in the other camp — my instincts tell me that the books are flagging that the Mavericks are the preferred side. Call it “contrarian” to the point spread value perspective. It is of interest that the two previous times in 2024 when Boston was an underdog, they lost on the road by double-digits to Milwaukee — and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were healthy for those games. Then there is the injury to Porzingis. He has sustained a “torn medial retinaculum with an associated dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg.” The medical opinions are wildly divergent about this rare injury — some doctors are claiming that they expect him to play through the injury. The medical opinion I trust concludes surgery is likely and that he will not play in the rest of the NBA Finals. The Celtics have indicated that will not risk further injury either — so I don’t think he will play. His absence takes away the team’s best rim protector. And he was an offensive spark plug in the first half in Game One. As it is, Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning nine or more games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 98 points in this series and 102 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when leading in a playoff series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Dallas needs much more from Kyrie Irving who has made only 13 of his 37 shots from the field. Mavericks backers can point to 2016 when he only scored 36 points on 36 shots in Games One and Two of the NBA Finals against Golden State before returning home and beginning a three-game run where he scored 35 Points-Per-Game on 55.6% shooting and a 50% clip from behind the arc. Hopefully, everyone got Dallas at +7.5 points in Game Two — but that game should have been closer except for Payton Pritchard’s miracle 3-pointer at the logo to end the third quarter and then the terrible non-call double-block on P.J. Washington with less than a minute left that could have made that a one-basket game. Resiliency has been a hallmark of this team that has a 10-5 straight-up record the last two playoff seasons following a loss in the postseason — and they have a 5-2 straight record off a loss in this postseason. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Threes in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas posted a 15-1 record to close out the regular season once Kidd moved to a starting lineup of Doncic and Irving along with Derrick Jones, Jr. and their two trade deadline acquisitions, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington — and they ranked second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during that span. They cruised through the Western Conference playoffs with a 12-5 record including a series against number-one-seeded Oklahoma City and a Minnesota team that dethroned Denver. They are better than their season-long record. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a same-season loss. And while they have lost all four games against the Celtics this season, Dallas has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to end a three-game losing streak to their opponent. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (506) minus the points versus the Boston Celtics (505). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-09-24 |
Mavs +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 98-105 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (503) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (62-38) has lost two of their last three games after their 107-89 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 6.5-point underdog on Thursday. Boston (77-20) has won eight straight games while taking a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas got blitzed right out of the gate with the Celtics breaking an NBA Finals record by ending the first quarter with a 17-point lead at 37-20. The Mavericks are vulnerable to starting a new playoff series slow — they had not covered the point spread in five of their last six opening games to a new series and lost Game One to both the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The week off between games and playing on the road probably did not help matters. And Boston saw the return of Kristaps Porzingis who came off the bench to energize the team with 11 points in the first quarter. Dallas attempted to make some runs — but this game was over before it barely started. Now for Game Two, head coach Jason Kidd has some adjustments to make — but the Mavs simply playing better will go a long way. They only made 41.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 7 of 27 shots from behind the arc — and those 27 shot attempts from 3-point land were their second fewest all season. Their 26% shooting percentage from 3-point range was their worst shooting percentage from deep in the postseason — and their players not named Luka Doncic only made 3 of their 15 shots from downtown. The offensive effort will be better in Game Two. Kidd has called on more player movement and more ball movement to get Doncic and Kyrie Irving from getting lulled into playing one-on-one isolation ball. Dallas only had nine assists in the game — and they assisted on just 22.5% of their made field goals. Irving led the team with a mere two assists. The Mavericks assisted on 59.6% of their made baskets in the regular season — so they should be much better in this area in Game Two. The Celtics played Doncic and Irving straight up without offering help when they switched off pick-and-rolls. If Dallas can simply attack this approach with more aggressiveness, they should get better scoring opportunities for Doncic and Irving — and that will open up more 3-point shooting. On defense, Dallas should have a better plan in defending the Celtics’ 3-point shooting. Resiliency has been a hallmark of this team that has a 10-4 straight-up record the last two playoff seasons following a loss in the postseason — and they have a 5-1 straight record off a loss in this postseason including upset victories in Game Two against the Clippers and Thunder following a Game One loss. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after a double-digit loss. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing for the second time in five days. On the road, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games on the road including five of their last six games this postseason. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road against teams from the Eastern Conference. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series. Boston’s biggest challenge has been fighting complacency — but remember that their 12-2 march to the NBA Finals was against three teams all dealing with significant injuries. How this team will handle pressure basketball in the playoffs against a worthy opponent remains a question. As it is, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games following a playoff win by double-digits. They played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Mavs to 41.7% shooting. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 102 points in their last game. And while they have not allowed more than 105 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when leading in a playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas posted a 15-1 record to close out the regular season once Kidd moved to a starting lineup of Doncic and Irving along with Derrick Jones, Jr. and their two trade deadline acquisitions, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington — and they ranked second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency during that span. They cruised through the Western Conference playoffs with a 12-5 record including a series against number-one-seeded Oklahoma City and a Minnesota team that dethroned Denver. They are better than their season-long record. The Celtics have won all three meetings between these two teams with the last two victories being by 18 or more points. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a same-season loss -- and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging two straight double-digit losses to their opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to end a three-game losing streak to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (503) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (504). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-30-24 |
Mavs +5 v. Wolves | Top | 124-103 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (511) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (61-37) had won five games in a row before their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (65-32) still trails by a 3-1 margin in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: After dominating the Timberwolves in crunch time in the first three games in this series, Dallas looked poised to pull out another one on Tuesday when Luka Doncic got fouled while converting a long three-pointer late in that game. But Doncic missed the free throw and the T-Wolves pulled out the victory. Credit Minnesota for making some defensive adjustments and finally playing better in the clutch — but perhaps being down 0-3 in the series took away the pressure that had been impacting them. The Mavericks only shot 42.0% from the field in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They made only 14 of 40 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc — and they missed 12 of their 17 open 3-point attempts. Dallas should shoot better tonight. They should also play better defense after allowing the Timberwolves to make 52.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 12 games. The Mavericks allowed Minnesota to make 50.6% of their shots in Game Two — but they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after an upset loss in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. They have demonstrated their resilience by covering the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have still won seven of their last nine games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Dallas goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog. Minnesota played their best defensive game in this series by holding the Mavs to 42.0% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 22 games by making 52.7% of their shots. Karl-Anthony Towns played his best game in the series — by far — by scoring 25 points on 9 of 13 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc including three in the fourth quarter. Towns has struggled in clutch time — and he has been inconsistent when playing at home in these playoffs. In his last five playoff games at home since the second round, Towns is scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game on 32.3% shooting and just a 29.6% clip from behind the arc. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a win by six points or less. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (511) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (512). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-28-24 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 105-100 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (64-32) has lost six of their last eight games after their 116-107 loss on the road against the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (61-36) has won five games in a row and seven of their last eight to take a 3-0 series lead. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks took Game Three despite allowing the Timberwolves to make 50.6% which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. But they also nailed 55.9% of their shots which was their best shooting performance in their last 44 games. Dallas has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where they shot 55% or more of their shots. The Mavs are due a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their shooting in this series. While they are making 58.1% of their shots, their expected field goal percentage which measures their shot location relative to league shooting averages is just 53.0%. The Mavericks have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after winning on their home court in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning five or more games in a row -- and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total at home after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Furthermore, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s -- and they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. They have also played 33 of their last 50 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota played their worst defensive game in their last six contests by allowing the Mavericks to make 55.9%. of their shots. They did nail 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting performance in their last nine contests. The Timberwolves have not covered the point spread in this series -- and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. All three games in this series have finished Over the Total -- and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
05-27-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 223 | Top | 105-102 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (75-20) has won six games in a row after their 114-111 victory on the road as a 7-point road favorite on Saturday. Indiana (55-44) has lost four of their last six games while dropping the first three games in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This decision is largely a contrarian reaction to the fact that both of these teams have played five straight Overs coming into this Game Four. But there is more. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported at 5 PM ET that he thinks that it is “unlikely” that Tyrese Haliburton will attempt to play tonight with him being listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. While Haliburton wants to play, management sees the big picture with their franchise player and will unlikely want to risk a more serious injury with this series all but decided. We were on the Pacers in Game Three despite not having Haliburton play. They made 50.5% of their shots and built a 15-point lead. They had an eight-point lead late in the game — but they managed to blow that advantage to lose for the third straight time in this series. Losing their best player is bad enough, but the other resulting concern is that Indiana’s shot profile is simply unsustainable to score 111 points (even when playing at a fast tempo). Haliburton plays a critical role in the spacing in their half-court offense for their 3-point shooting. They only made 4 of 20 shots from behind the arc on Friday — not only is a 20% clip not going to get it done, but neither is taking only 21% of their shots from the field from 3-point range in 2024. The Pacers took 46% of their shots from midrange — and only 32% of their shots came at the rim. Overall, the Pacers only took 54% of their shots either at the rim or behind the 3-point line. They stayed competitive in the game because they shot 59.2% inside the arc — but that is simply not sustainable especially when not attacking the rim. Boston has arguably been outplayed in two of three games in this series. They need to use this game to play harder on defense. Indiana has shot at least 50.5% from the field in each game in this series. The Celtics have allowed four straight opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing four or more straight opponents to make at least 47.5% from the field. Boston has played five straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing five or more Overs in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. FINAL TAKE: The Celtics are outscoring their opponents by +11.1 Points-Per-Game this season — and that helps trigger an empirical angle supporting the Under that has been 76% effective. In games with the Total set at 220 or higher, when a team is outscoring their opponents by at least +6 PPG and has played five or more Overs in a row, that game finished Under the Total in 32 of these last 42 situations. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Indiana Pacers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-26-24 |
Wolves +3 v. Mavs | Top | 107-116 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (503) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (504) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (64-31) got upset for the second straight time in this series with their 109-108 upset loss as a 6-point favorite on Friday. Dallas (60-36) has won four straight games while returning home with a 2-0 series. REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota has lost both games in clutch time with their stars struggling to make key baskets while Luka Doncic takes care of business when he has the basketball. But it is unlikely that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will combine to make only 9 of the 33 shots they combined to take on Friday. The Timberwolves are only making 53.8% of their shots at the rim in this series. Their shooting percentage of 51.2% is significantly off from their expected field goal percentage of 55.1% when measuring league averages from where they are taking their shots. The Timberwolves have been reliable when playing on the road. Minnesota has won and covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games on the road this postseason. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games after a point spread loss. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when playing no more than the fourth time in ten days. Towns, in particular, has been a road warrior. He is scoring 23.2 Points-Per-Game on the road in these playoffs while nailing 49% of his 3-point shots. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have lost five of their last seven games, they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games as an underdog. Dallas held the T-Wolves to just 41.2% shooting which was their best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset victory -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Dallas has played three straight games that finished Over the Total. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games at home after playing an Over in their last game -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after playing two or more Overs in a row. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss at home -- and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year is with the Minnesota Timberwolves (503) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
05-25-24 |
Celtics v. Pacers +7.5 | Top | 114-111 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Indiana (55-43) has lost the opening two games of this series after their 126-110 loss on the road against the Celtics as an 8.5-point underdog on Thursday. Boston (74-20) has won five games in a row and nine of their last ten contests. REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tyrese Haliburton has been declared out for tonight’s game due to the hamstring injury he suffered in the third quarter in Game Two. Despite this turn of events, I’m investing in Indiana tonight. First, we are betting numbers, not teams. The books had already adjusted the line because of the injury — Boston opened as a 6.5 road favorite which was just two points off what they were laying at home in Game Two. The confirmation that Haliburton will not play tonight has led to the Celtics laying another point or so with -7.5s out there now. The loss of Haliburton has probably been overstated. While he was spectacular in the first half of the season (and the Play-In Tournament), he simply has not been the same since suffering a hamstring injury in January. Since January 8th in the regular season, Haliburton’s scoring dropped to 16.9 Points-Per-Game on 45.4% shooting from the field and a low 32.3% clip from behind the arc. With Haliburton out, the onus is on his teammates to step up. Pascal Siakam should continue to enjoy a great series against a Celtics team that lacks a rim protector with Kristaps Porzingis still injured. Siakam is scoring 26 PPG on 62.5% shooting from the field — and he is adding 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game. The Pacers’ role players play better at home — they are an unbeaten 6-0 at home this postseason with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG. They are scoring 119.2 PPG at home in the playoffs. This team can certainly work harder on defense after allowing Boston to make 53.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Additionally, Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 41 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games after a point spread loss. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Furthermore, Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. Boston may be undermanned tonight as well with Jrue Holiday questionable with an illness. The Celtics’ 53.4% shooting on Thursday was their best shooting performance in their last seven games. Boston has not done much to slow the Pacers’ offense down — Indiana has shot 52.4% and 53.5% from the field in both games. The Celtics have played four straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. After playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after winning there or more games in a row on their home court. FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (502) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-24 |
Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 98-90 |
Loss | -107 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-29) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 115-70 loss on the road against the Timberwolves on Thursday. Minnesota (63-29) has won seven of their last ten games while evening this series at 3-3. REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver earned a mulligan in this series after rallying from losing the first two games of this series with three straight victories by a combined 50 points. The Nuggets only made 30.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort of their season — and their 70 points were also a season-low. But Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by ten or more points to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Nuggets started Game Six slow by trailing at the half by a 59-40 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. Minnesota played their best defensive game of the season by holding Denver to 30.2% shooting. But the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games on the road after playing a game at home where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. And while Minnesota had not covered the point spread in three straight games before Game Six, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-19-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 | Top | 130-109 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with their 116-103 victory as a 5-point favorite at home on Friday. New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 17 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread victory. They have played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a win at home by 10 or more points. Now they go back on the road where they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s. Additionally, the Pacers have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total in a road game in the playoffs where they could potentially close out the series. New York has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Knicks return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when playing with revenge from a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-18-24 |
Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 | Top | 116-117 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (63-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 104-92 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Dallas (57-36) can close things out tonight given their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder allowed the Mavericks to make 52.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City ranked fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the regular season — and they have still held five of their last seven opponents to no higher than 42.9% shooting. The Thunder have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they rank just 11th of the 16 teams that made the playoffs with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number of 103.6. They are making only 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc against the Mavericks in this series. The Thunder have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last six games by making 52.6% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 34 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset victory. Dallas has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. The Mavs have won five of their last seven games — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they rank only 10th of the 16 playoff teams in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this postseason. Dallas has played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Yea with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (531) and the Dallas Mavericks (532). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-14-24 |
Pacers v. Knicks -1 | Top | 91-121 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-36) has lost the last two games of this series after their 121-89 loss on the road to the Pacers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (53-40) has won six of their last nine games while evening this best-of-seven series at 2-2. REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks are a M*A*S*H unit right now with O.G. Anunoby now out indefinitely and enjoying Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and Bojan Bogdanovic in street clothes for this team. But if there is a silver lining to a loss by 32 points, it is that the starting five got benched and rested for this crucial fifth game. Returning home to a raucous Madison Square Garden, expect an inspired effort from Jalen Brunson and company. New York has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Knicks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing two games in a row on the road. New York only made 33.7% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. They also allowed the Pacers to make 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 35 contests. Games Three and Four finished Under the Total — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Indiana played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Knicks to 33.7% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last ten games by nailing 56.8% of their shots. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games after a point spread win. Indiana is dealing with their own injuries — most notably, Tyrese Haliburton has been slowed with back spasms and a right ankle. This might be the game he needs to exhale after leading his team to two victories at home. The Pacers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 210s. FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-12-24 |
Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 204.5 | Top | 115-107 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-28) won their first game in this series with their 117-90 victory as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Minnesota (62-27) had won six games in a row before that loss — they hold a 2-1 lead in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets enjoyed their best overall shooting game in over a month. Their 53.7% shooting percentage from the field was their best mark in their last ten games. They made 14 of their 28 shots (50%) from behind the arc. They scored at a 112.4 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court which was their most efficient clip in the postseason by 11 points. They scored 37 points in the third quarter alone. Head coach Michael Malone made two key adjustments to unlock the offense: (1) he had Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon dribble the ball up the court to ask less of Jamal Murray and (2) he emphasized getting the ball across mid-court in two to three seconds to quicker get into their half-court offense. It worked — but now the onus is on the Timberwolves’ head coach Chris Finch and his coaching staff to determine their counter move with the two days of preparation. Furthermore, the ongoing concern for this team is their lack of depth combined with their lingering injury situation. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson are all questionable with injuries -- and even if they play, their continuing effectiveness will be a concern. Denver also increased their intensity on defense. The biggest tactical change was that Jokic was less concerned with defending the paint to instead use his length to disrupt things on the perimeter. The Timberwolves only made 10 of their 33 shots (30%) from behind the arc despite attempting 45% of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road against an Atlantic Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Denver has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota will not be as sluggish as they were in Game Three — but they ranked a mediocre 12th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half-court. Jokic daring Karl-Anthony Towns to attack the glass may be worth the risk since KAT so often becomes passive and settles for outside shots. Towns only scored 14 points on a mere seven shots from the field on Friday. The T-Wolves should play much better on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. And while Game Three finished Under the Total, the Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 43 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-11-24 |
Thunder +3 v. Mavs | Top | 101-105 |
Loss | -115 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (505) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (62-26) had their ten-game winning streak snapped in a 119-110 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (55-35) has won five of their last seven games while evening this series at 1-1. REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City has been playing great basketball this postseason — it is telling that the Mavericks’ 46.7% shooting percentage was the worst defensive performance in their last seven games. Head coach Mark Daigneault has some adjustments available to him. Look for the Thunder to be more focused on pressuring the Mavericks off the 3-point line and coaxing them to rely on Luka Doncic in the half-court. Doncic rebounded on Thursday by scoring 29 points on 11 of 21 shooting — but he remains hampered by a nagging right knee injury. Expect Aaron Wiggins to continue to get more playing time for Josh Giddey as well — Oklahoma City was outplayed by -20 points in the 13 minutes he played in Game Two. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They had covered the point spread in four straight games before Thursday’s nine-point loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They should continue to benefit from all the time off they earned after sweeping New Orleans in the first round — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. Oklahoma City has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 road games as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas got a surprising shooting performance from P.J. Washington who nailed 7 of his 10 shots from behind the arc on Thursday. But Kyrie Irving’s 9 points from 2 of 8 shooting is cause for concern — especially when considering how important Game Two was for them with Doncic not 100%. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset victory. And while that final score flew Over the 217.5-point Total, Dallas has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (505) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-24 |
Nuggets +5 v. Wolves | Top | 117-90 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-80 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (62-26) has won six games in a row as they return home with a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves entered this series feisty to dethrone the defending NBA champions who ousted them from the playoffs last season. Anthony Edwards is generating comparisons to Michael Jordan. Slow down. I still expect this to be a long series. Denver lost a close game in the opener of this series — and they were simply flat in Game Two perhaps thinking they could casually flip the switch. They only made 34.9% of their shots which was the second worst shooting effort of their season and lowest field goal percentage in their last 73 games. Nikola Jokic was too passive on Monday as he often deferred to his teammates on offense. After receiving the Most Valuable Player Award on Wednesday after that embarrassing effort in Game Two, expect a very aggressive Joker tonight. And look for the Nuggets to get back to playing harder on defense — especially in transition where they have surrendered points at a whopping 190 points per 100 possession rate. Championship lethargy is nearly undefeated — but Denver has also demonstrated consistent resiliency after bad efforts in the Jokic era. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games and in five of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The four days off this week should help them readjust mentally to the challenge of this series — and it should help players like Jamal Murray get healthier. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. They have allowed the T-Wolves to make 52.4% and 50% in both games in this series — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. More activity on defense should help — after forcing 14 turnovers that generated into 26 points in Game One, the Nuggets forced 12 turnovers in Game Two but only got two points from them. More focus and attention on the restricted area should also pay dividends. After averaging 29 shots per game in the restricted area last round against the Lakers, they are averaging 27.7 shots per game in the restricted area this round but making only 54.5% of these shots. Minnesota won Game Two even without Rudy Gobert who missed the game due to the birth of his child. But a letdown may be coming now — the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in the previous 3 times in the last three years they were riding a six-game point spread cover run. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Holding Denver to just 34.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last 34 games. The Regression Gods are probably due to make an appearance regarding their shooting in this series as well. They are making 40.4% of their 3s against Denver — and they are nailing 49% of their midrange jumpers including 50% of their long midrange shots which leads all teams in the second round of the playoffs. The Timberwolves return home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home when favored by up to six points. FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-05-24 |
Magic v. Cavs UNDER 196 | Top | 94-106 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (50-38) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 103-96 victory at home against the Cavaliers as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (51-37) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic took Game Six despite allowing the Cavaliers to make 48.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Orlando finished the regular season ranked third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In this series, they have held Cleveland to just 44.0% shooting which has resulted in only 94.2 Points-Per-Game. But the Magic are only making 43.4% of their shots in this series resulting in just 101.3 PPG themselves. Their shooting has been worse on the road where they have only made 38.1% of their shots including 25.2% of their 3s in their three games in Cleveland in this series. The Magic are scoring just 90.7 PPG in those three games while scoring more than 86 points only once. Orlando has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while the Magic have eight fewer personal fouls in each of the last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after committing at least five fewer personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games. Cleveland enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last seven games by making 48.8% of their shots on Friday. But the Cavaliers have not scored more than 104 points in this series — and they have not scored more than 97 points in five of the six games. Cleveland has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where neither team scored more than 105 points. The foul situation in the last two games has helped Orlando take 16 and 10 more shots at the free throw line as well — and the Cavaliers have played 24 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where they took at least 10 fewer shots at the charity stripe.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-03-24 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 209 | Top | 101-114 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-34) has lost six of their last eight games after their 123-93 loss at home to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Dallas (53-34) has a 3-2 series lead with the chance to close out the series tonight. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Mavericks to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 contests. They miss Kawhi Leonard who remains an outstanding defender — but head coach Ty Lue will demand a better effort from his players on that end of the court. Leonard will miss tonight’s game as well as he, as always, manages his knee problem — and the Clippers also miss his scoring. Los Angeles has not scored more than 93 points in three of the last four games in this series. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. And in their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Los Angeles has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine games by nailing 54.0% of their shots. The Mavs should continue to be tough to score on in this series. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Dallas has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a win on the road by 10 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-02-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 202.5 | Top | 118-115 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset loss in overtime at home to the 76ers as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Philadelphia (50-38) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It took overtime for Game Five to finish Over the Total — that game was tied at 97 at the end of regulation. The Knicks made 46.5% of their shots which was their second-best shooting effort in this series. But New York’s 3-point shooting has collapsed. After only making 7 of their 27 shots from behind the arc, they shot just 10 of their 36 shots from 3-point range on Tuesday — that’s a 27.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land in their last two games. The Knicks have not shot better than 43% in three of the five games in this series. But they are playing tough defense led by O.G. Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein. They are holding the Sixers to a low 54.8% shooting percentage at the rim. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Philadelphia only made 48.1% of their shots at the rim on Tuesday. And despite them making 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) from behind the arc, they only scored at a 110.9 points per 100 possession rate. For comparison's sake, the 76ers scored at a 116.3 points per 100 adjusted possession rate in the regular season — and their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Game Five would rank 26th in the league if extended for the entire season. Joel Embiid deserves credit for taking the court — but he is so banged up with several maladies including his chronic left knee and now Bell's palsy. He needs rest — and he simply is not in the physical state to take his game down low. Instead, he is trying to survive out on the perimeter — but in his last two games, he is making only 36.8% of his shots including just a 20% shooting mark from behind the arc. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Sixers have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-pint range. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-01-24 |
Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-93 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (505) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (506) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (52-34) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-111 upset loss at home to the Clippers on Monday. Los Angeles (53-33) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory. REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Mavericks may have gotten complacent in Game Four with the news that Kawhi Leonard would not play due to his right knee. Los Angeles raced out of the gates to take a huge 30-point lead in the first half and went into the locker room with a 66-49 lead. Dallas battled back and almost stole the game — but they dug themselves too big a hole. They should start this game much better and play better on defense. They allowed the Clippers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. The Mavericks have been resilient after bad losses as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in five days. Dallas goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting game in their last nine contests by making 53.7% of their shots. Paul George and James Harden combined to make 11 of their 15 shots from behind the arc — but they are not likely to repeat a 73% shooting percentage from 3-point range. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win on the road including those last five circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after enjoying a halftime of 15 or more points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when playing with two days of rest. They will once again be without Leonard who is still nursing his right knee. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games at home as the dog. FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games on the road when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (505) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-30-24 |
Magic v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 103-104 |
Loss | -110 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (570) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (569) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (50-36) has lost two games in a row in this series after their 112-89 loss on the road to the Magic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Orlando (49-37) has evened this best-of-seven series at 2-2. REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed Orlando to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Magic made 51.1% of their shots against them in their 38-point victory in Game Three on Thursday as well — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 50% or better shooting from their opponent in two games in a row. Cleveland should play better tonight after getting blown in both games in Orlando. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a loss by 15 or more points. And in their last 7 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Cleveland has not scored more than 97 points in this series — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 105 points in four or more games in a row. They return home where they rank 10th in the NBA in the regular season in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they make 48.6% of their shots on their home court including 37.7% of their 3s resulting in 113.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games as a pick ‘em or as a favorite of up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after losing of their last three games. Orlando enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 25 games by making 55.8% of their shots on Saturday. But the Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Orlando has a 31-11 record when playing at home — and their +2.2 Adjusted Net Efficiency margin at home ranks 12th in the league. But it is a different story on the road where they drop to 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency rating of -3.5. They fall to 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road where they score -2.5 fewer PPG and make -1.5% fewer shots. Their play on defense is not as good on the road either as they allow their home hosts to make 48.3% of their shots resulting in 111.3 PPG which is +1.1% and +3.7 PPG above their season average. Overall, the Magic have an under .500 18-26 record away from home where they get outscored by -3.8 PPG. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge motivations. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Cleveland Cavaliers (570) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (569). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-29-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 219 | Top | 106-108 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-38) avoided the sweep and snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets with a 119-108 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Denver (60-26) had won four games in a row before that loss. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with a calf injury. Murray scored 21.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while dishing out 6.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is one of their best deep threats by making 42.5% of his 3s. Reggie Jackson will take his likely take his place in the starting lineup — but he is banged up with an ankle injury and has been battling an illness for more than a week. Denver needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Lakers to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Nuggets have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they have played 9 straight Unders against teams from the Pacific Division opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last five contests by making 52.2% of their shots. They got 22 points from D’Angelo Russell — but his scoring remains erratic after he put up a doughnut in Game Three. The Lakers have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after an upset win by double-digits. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they scored only 103 and 99 points in the opening two games of this series. They did hold the Nuggets to just 107.5 PPG in those contests. The Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first round of the playoffs. FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 27 of their last 45 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 potential close-out games in the playoffs. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-28-24 |
Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 217 | Top | 113-126 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-35) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 121-118 loss in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Indiana (49-37) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks will likely be without Damian Lillard tonight after he first twisted his ankle in Game Three before later wrenching his Achilles in the fourth quarter. While Lillard declared that he expected to play after the game, he was in a walking boot yesterday and was listed as doubtful. Milwaukee probably does not want to risk Lillard aggravating that injury the way Golden State did with Kevin Durant a few years ago. The team is already without Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doubtful to return from his calf injury. Even if one (or both) of these players take the court, neither is likely to be close to 100%. Khris Middleton stepped up with 42 points on Friday — but now he is being asked to carry the team on offense which is not his strength. Lillard scored 28 points in Game Three. With Lillard out, head coach Doc Rivers will likely turn to Malik Beasley who is an improvement on the defensive end of the court. Beasley’s size makes him an interesting choice to defend Tyrese Haliburton — and that would allow for their top defender Patrick Beverley to clamp down on Andrew Nembhard. One thing that seems certain is that Rivers will continue to do everything he can to get this game into “mud” as he declared before the series started. After the 97 mutual possessions (adjusted possessions per 48 minutes) in Game One, there were 92.5 possessions in Game Two before just the 89.2 adjusted possession rate in Game Three which includes the pace in overtime. That game went into overtime with the score tied at 111 — helped by Lillard’s 28 points. The Bucks have played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indiana only made 13 of their 49 shots from behind the arc for a 27% shooting percentage. Tyrese Halliburton does not appear to be at 100% as he recovers from the injuries that slowed him down during the regular season — he missed 11 of his 12 shots from downtown. The Pacers' bench scoring production is down as well. After leading the NBA by getting 46.8 Points-Per-Game from their bench in the regular season, the second unit is only scoring 23.3 PPG in this series, down -23.5 PPG. Indiana has played 4 of their 6 games this season Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 42 of their last 63 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 8 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in 14 days, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with double revenge including six of those last nine circumstances. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-24 |
Nuggets v. Lakers +4 | Top | 108-119 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-38) looks to avoid getting swept in this opening-round series after their 112-105 upset loss as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Denver (60-25) has won seven of their last eight games. REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles faces a near-impossible task to overcome a 3-0 deficit to the reigning NBA champions. But this one is for pride to avoid getting swept by the Nuggets in two straight postseasons and at least go into the offseason with their 11-game losing streak against them snapped. LeBron James will demand a big effort from his team — and his history demonstrates that he does not take a knee when his team is attempting to avoid a sweep in a playoff series. In those four previous playoff games when his team was down 0-3, James has scored 29.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 8.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and 9.5 Assists-Per-Game in 44 minutes per contest. The Lakers only made 5 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Thursday — expect them to shoot better than 19% from 3-point range. They also allowed the Nuggets to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 105 points. If there is one vulnerability of this Nuggets team (outside their depth), it is that they can get complacent. Becoming a little too dependent on the dopamine rush of digging themselves out of a big deficit tends to be a problem for defending champions — and Denver seems to crave this euphoria when playing this Lakers team. Los Angeles held a double-digit lead once again in Game Three after owning a 59-44 halftime lead in Game Two and enjoying a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter in Game One. The Nuggets are going to assume they can simply flip the switch once again. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven boards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding four straight opponents by five or more rebounds. FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as a favorite of less than 11 points. The 12th time’s the charm for the Lakers tonight. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-26-24 |
Clippers +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 90-101 |
Loss | -105 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-32) has lost four of their last five games after their 96-93 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (51-33) snapped a three-game losing streak to even this series at 1-1. REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 36.8% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort for their entire season. Kawhi Leonard did return from injury in that game after missing nine games in a row but he was rusty — he made only 7 of his 17 shots while missing nine of his 12 jumpers including an 0-5 mark from behind the arc. With two days off, he should play better tonight as he re-establishes his rhythm. Remember, Leonard had a 51% shooting percentage with a 39% clip from behind the arc in his previous 72 playoff games resulting in almost 29 Points-Per-Game. More ball movement should achieve better shooting results for this team. Los Angeles was still in a position to win Game Two despite that dismal shooting. They outplayed the Mavericks in the other areas of the game: they had more offensive rebounds and scored more second-chance points; they made more free throws; they had fewer turnovers; they had more fast break points; they had more points in the paint and shot a better percentage at the rim. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. After playing their last five games, they go back on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after playing three or more games in a row. Head coach Ty Lue needs to make an adjustment to the Mavericks playing small ball with Maxi Kleber on the court — and that could mean more playing time for P.J. Tucker who did see more action at the end of the season. Dallas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on the road by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a win by six points or less. The Mavericks were red-hot down the stretch by winning 16 of 18 games before tanking the final two regular season games since their spot as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs was clinched. But only one of their 16 victories during that stretch was against a top-six seed in either conference — and that upset win at home against Denver required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from Kyrie Irving to steal that game. Dallas is below .500 with a 23-27 straight-up record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better. FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to avenge a loss by three points or less including four of those last five situations. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-25-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (528) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (527) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (48-37) returns home trailing 0-2 in this best-of-seven series after their 104-101 loss in Madison Square Garden as a 5-point underdog on Monday. New York (52-32) has won seven games in a row. REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: I have not endorsed anything in this series yet because of my uncertainty regarding the health of Joel Embiid. He is averaging 38 minutes per game in this series — and while he has only made 20 of 51 of his shots, he is still scoring 31.5 Points-Per-Game after dropping 34 points and adding 10 rebounds on Monday. Getting the extra day off really helps the Sixers and Embiid tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing for the second time in five days. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row on the road. The 76ers return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Philly is defending Jalen Brunson well because they are bypassing drop coverage to stay in his face to take away his midrange. While he is scoring 23.0 PPG, he has only made 16 of his 55 shots from the field for a rough 29.1% field goal percentage. The Knicks held the Sixers to just 42.9% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But there are plenty of concerns for this team despite their 2-0 lead in the series. All five of their starters got outscored when they were on the court in Game One — the best +/- number for a starter was Brunson’s -3. Game Two had the controversial officiating late in the game. New York is only scoring 86.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in the half-court. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in a straight-up victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by three points or less against an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. Both games in this series have finished Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 times. FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 51 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Philadelphia 76ers (528) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-24-24 |
Pelicans v. Thunder -7.5 | Top | 92-124 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (519) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (58-25) has won six games in a row after their 94-92 win against the Pelicans in Game One of this best-of-seven series. New Orleans (50-35) has lost three of their last four games. REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City looked nervy in their playoff series in the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They only made 43.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They only made 32% of their 3-pointers. With the first playoff game and victory under their belts, they should get back into the rhythm that earned them the top seed in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City may still be underappreciated in some circles — but this is a team loaded with young talent that smartly engages in the math battle of modern basketball. They led the league by making 38.9% of their 3s in the regular season. They also focus on winning the turnover battle — they rank fifth in the NBA by turning the ball over 12.5% of the time while posting the top turnover rate on defense by forcing turnovers in 15.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They led the NBA by scoring 20.4 Points-Per-Game off turnovers. And led by rookie Chet Holmgren, they were tops in the league by holding their opponents to 61.6% shooting inside four feet. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 95 points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game where no more than 195 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City will start benefiting from getting last week off while the Pelicans were surviving the Play-In Tournament. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. They now have a 34-8 record when playing at home — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 42 games. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games after playing their last game at home. And in their last 17 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points, they have covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. New Orleans only made 38.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 contests — but I do not necessarily think the Regression Gods are coming for a visit tonight. The Pelicans miss the injured Zion Williamson who scored 22.9 PPG on 57.0% shooting. Brandon Ingram does not look close to 100% from his knee injury that kept him out for weeks. He scored only 13 points on Sunday on 5 of 17 shooting. In his four games back from injury, he has scored more than 13 points only once — and he is making just 43.1% of his shots. The Pelicans got a big game out of Jonas Valanciunas in Game One who grabbed 20 rebounds. They pulled down 36% of their missed shots — and while the Thunder are not a great rebounding team, I do expect head coach Mark Daigneault to have his team focus more on protecting their defensive glass. New Orleans has outrebounded their last three opponents by at least five boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrebounding three straight opponents by five or more rebounds. They have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 29 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (519). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-23-24 |
Pacers +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 125-108 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (511) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (47-37) has lost two of their last three games after dropping the opening game of this best-of-seven series by a 109-94 score as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (50-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory. REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Indiana was flat on Sunday — and Tyrese Halliburton looked tentative on the court. Veteran head coach Rick Carlisle who has overseen an NBA title in his coaching career should get his team refocused for Game Two tonight. They should also shoot the ball better after only making 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 63 games. The Pacers are third in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have led the league in that category since March 1st. They make 50.4% of their shots on the season — and they should improve their 3-point shooting tonight after only making 8 of their 38 shots from behind the arc. Indiana nails 37.0% of their 3s so they should improve on their 21% clip from behind the arc. The Pacers have been very consistent after disappointing efforts. Indiana has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 upset losses against Central Division rivals. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss as a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Pacers play at the second-fastest pace in the league by averaging 105.2 possessions per game. Getting last week off should help them tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after when playing for no more than the fourth time in ten days. A silver lining for Indiana on Sunday is that they pulled down 28% of their missed shots — if they can approach that number again while shooting better, they should pull off the upset. Milwaukee played their best defensive game in their last ten contests by holding the Pacers to 39.6% shooting. The Bucks will likely still be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight as he recovers from his calf injury. Damian Lillard stepped in Game One with 35 points on 11 of 24 shooting — and he nailed 6 of his 11 shots from behind the arc. But it is fair to say that Lillard has been a disappointment in his first season with the Bucks. He is only scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game on 42.4% shooting and a 35.4% mark from 3-point land. Milwaukee was lethargic down the stretch with eight losses in their final 11 regular season games including an ugly 25-point loss at Orlando in the final day which cost them the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (511) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-21-24 |
Pelicans v. Thunder -8 | Top | 92-94 |
Loss | -115 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (585) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (57-25) has won five games in a row after their 135-86 victory against Dallas as a 19.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (50-34) has won five of their last seven games after their 105-98 victory against Sacramento as a 1-point favorite in their second Play-In Tournament game on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City comes into this game rested and ready after getting the week off after earning the number one seed in the Western Conference with their victory against the Mavericks. They made 55.7% of their shots against Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after making at least 55% or more of their shots in their last game. The Thunder have scored at least 125 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after scoring 125 or more points in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 120 or more points in their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has covered the points spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 6 games after victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning their previous game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home on a three-game or better winning streak. OKC has covered the point spread in 27 of their 41 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210s. New Orleans stepped up without the injured Zion Williamson to make 51.8% of their shots against the Kings which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held that depleted Sacramento team missing Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter to just 40.9 shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. Brandon Ingram logged in 37:09 minutes which was the most he played since returning from injury — he had not played more than 24 minutes in his first two games back so fatigue will be an issue. The Pelicans are thin with their scoring without Williamson — they score -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have won five of their last seven contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after winning five or six of their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Pelicans after surviving on Friday night in the Crescent City before traveling to Oklahoma City for this series — all without their leading scorer. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (585). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-20-24 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-114 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers may be rusty with the three full days off since their game against the Pelicans — and they only made 41.7% of their shots in that game. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have fresh legs which will help them on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game where they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their two previous games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Denver comes into the postseason to defend their NBA title on a hot streak regarding their shooting. The Nuggets have shot at least 50.5% from the field in their last three games — and they have played five straight games where they nailed at least 48.9% of their shots. But Denver has then played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in five straight contests. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. This will be the fifth game this season that Denver will be playing with three or more days of rest after their last contest — and they have played 3 of those first 4 games Under the Total. After playing their last two games on the road, the Nuggets return home — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing their two previous games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has won the last eight meetings between these two teams after the Nuggets’ 124-114 victory as a 1-point favorite in Los Angeles on March 2nd. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 211 | Top | 98-105 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends. REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. But head coach Mike Brown has his team playing much better on the defensive end of the court — and they are also playing at a slower pace to compensate for their now very thin bench. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests. In their last 10 games, Sacramento’s pace has dropped to just 96.55 adjusted possessions per game which is the third-slowest in the NBA during that span. But while Sacramento ranks 14th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season, they have risen all the way up to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. The Kings have held their last five opponents to 45.7% shooting which has resulted in 106.2 Points-Per-Game — and that is -2.2% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Kings have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total in April including seven of their nine games this month. New Orleans now has their own significant injury news to deal with after Zion Williamson injured his left calf late in the game on Tuesday which will keep him out for tonight’s contest. He led the way with 40 points in the loss to the Lakers — and the Pelicans will very much miss his scoring tonight. But Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Brandon Ingram is healthy again — but he does not appear to be close to 100% yet. He only played 25 minutes on Tuesday and was not on the court in crunch time in the fourth quarter. He scored only 11 points on 4 of 12 shooting — and he has averaged just 12 PPG in his two games back in action. As it is and even with Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense has slowed down in the half-court to close out the regular season. While they ranked 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half court during the regular season, they dropped to 18th by scoring only 97.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in their final ten regular season games. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record, they have played 15 of these games Under the Total. FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win in Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on April 11th. Sacramento has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-24 |
Warriors -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 94-118 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has Golden State playing their best basketball heading into the postseason — they have won ten of their last 12 games. In their last ten games, the Warriors rank seventh in the NBA with a Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +8.1 which is a big improvement over their Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +2.4 for the entire season which ranks 13th. They rank ninth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rose to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. They are making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games. The improvement in defense has been even more pronounced. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they rise to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. They did allow the Jazz to make 51.7% of their shots on Sunday but that was the worst defensive game in their last 17 contests. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three contests. After struggling on the road last season with the negative vibes coming from Jordan Poole impacting the chemistry of the team, Kerr has emphasized better play away from home this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the second half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Sacramento held the collection of G-Leaguers wearing Trail Blazers’ uniforms to just 31.6% shooting on Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 95 in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors will be without Gary Payton II with his left calf strain — but he has missed their last three games as well. These two teams split their four regular season games but the Kings won the most recent two contests after a 134-133 victory on the road on January 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when motivated by double revenge. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-12-24 |
Suns v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 108-107 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (45-35) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five after their 135-123 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1-point favorite last night. Phoenix (47-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 124-108 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento misses the injured Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter which leaves their depth pretty thin. Huerter helps with the spacing on the court since he is primarily a three-point shooter. Monk provided instant offense off the bench and may still win the Sixth Man of the Year award. But the Kings still have De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis -- and they did make 54.8% of their shots last night against the Pelicans. Head coach Mike Brown will want a better effort on defense after they allowed New Orleans to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 31 games. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots including seven of their ten games under those circumstances this season. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Kings have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Sacramento still has plenty to play for this weekend as the regular season ends on Sunday. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs — but they are fighting for positioning for the Play-In Tournament next week with them being tied with Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th through 10th spots. This is only the fifth time this season when the Kings are playing at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. Phoenix enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games by making 48.4% of their shots against the Clippers on Wednesday. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. And while that final score finished Over the 218.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Phoenix stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road when a pick ‘em or favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns score 116.2 Points-Per-Game — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 116 PPG. The Kings score 116.6 PPG — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams who score 116 or more PPG. 25* NBA Bailout Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 | Top | 99-117 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-09-24 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 217.5 | Top | 102-87 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 146 | Top | 60-75 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-06-24 |
NC State v. Purdue -9 | Top | 50-63 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-05-24 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 226 | Top | 106-108 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-04-24 |
Indiana State -2.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 77-79 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-02-24 |
Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-84 |
Loss | -109 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-31-24 |
NC State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 76-64 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 155 | Top | 52-77 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (29-8) has won seven straight games after their 72-69 upset victory against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Connecticut (34-3) has won ten games in a row with their 82-52 victory against San Diego State as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden Arena in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Illini played their best game on defense in their last five contests by holding the Cyclones to just 39.7% shooting from the field. But defense is not a staple for this Illinois team that ranks 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are still allowing +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the 316th worst drop in efficiency when compared to a team’s defensive efficiency when playing at home. They rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their 19 games away from home — and that is not simply a function of playing in hostile environments since they also rank 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their eight games played on a neutral court. To make matters worse for head coach Brad Underwood, it is very difficult to prepare for Huskies’ head coach Dan Hurley’s complex offensive sets — especially with only one day to prepare. The Illini only made 42.1% of their shots against the tough Iowa State defense — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Fighting Illini are a powerhouse on that end of the court. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games — and they also lead the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They score +12.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the biggest jump in the nation. They make 47.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.6 Points-Per-Game on the road which is +1.4 more PPG than their season average. But they allow their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots including 36.1% of their 3s resulting in 78.1 PPG which is +4.9 PPG above their season average. Illinois has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. UConn made 46.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Huskies are scoring 82.7 PPG in this Big Dance despite only making 30.6% of their 3-pointers. They make 36.2% of their 3s on the season while ranking number in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, they fall to second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, just behind the Illini. They outrebounded the Aztecs by a 50-29 margin — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by +20 or more boards. But the Huskies have played four straight Unders on the strength of their defense and they have not allowed more than 58 points in those four games. A few things about this Under trend. UConn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have won all four of those games by at least 16 points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who score 84 or more PPG. On the road, they are also giving up +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions than when they are at home. The Huskies have a great roster but they probably lack the player who can slow down the Illini’s Terrence Shannon.
FINAL TAKE: UConn attempts 24 shots from behind the arc per game — and Illinois has played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against winning teams — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-29-24 |
Creighton v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 | Top | 75-82 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (25-9) has won five of their last six games after their 86-73 victory in double-overtime against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (26-8) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 62-58 win against Texas as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bluejays only made 38.7% of their shots against the Ducks last weekend — but they did convert on 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) of their shots from 3-point range (many of them in the second double overtime period to ruin our Oregon play). Creighton lives and dies by their 3-point shooting — they rank seventh in the nation by taking 48.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Their reliance on 3s could spell trouble when facing this stout Volunteers defense that ranks 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.9% of their 3-pointers. The Bluejays score -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — that discrepancy is the 352nd worst split in the nation. The problem for Creighton is they lack a Plan B if their 3s are not falling. They are dead last in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They only rebound 26.2% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. They are the only team left in the Big Dance that has a negative Shot Volume mark relative to what they surrender. But head coach Greg McDermott’s squad is a good defensive team that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacrificing offensive rebounding allows the Bluejays to get back on defense — and not going for turnovers limits the fouls they commit. They have the best defensive foul rate in the nation. They play great half-court defense by ranking 10th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.2%. The focus on defense is to get their opponent off the 3-point line — they rank sixth in the nation with their opponents only taking 27.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Made 3s consist of only 25.1% of their opponent’s points which is the 336th lowest mark. Creighton has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tennessee has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. This Volunteers team was supposed to be different and not offensively challenged given the emergence of Dalton Knecht. But Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combined to miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc. These primary scorers may be feeling the pressure to compensate for the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. His struggles are impacting the flow of the offense — not only did Tennessee only make 33.8% of their shots against the Longhorns, but they had more turnovers than assists. Creighton will give the Vols the midrange — but Knecht only connects on 39% of his midrange jumpers. Tennessee will rely on its defense that held Texas without a 3-pointer for 24 straight minutes on Saturday. The Volunteers rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their 44.1% opponent’s effective field goal percentage ranks fourth in the nation — and they hold their opponents to 44.1% shooting inside the arc. Tennessee has played 30 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of their games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-29-24 |
Gonzaga +5.5 v. Purdue | Top | 68-80 |
Loss | -112 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (27-7) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 89-68 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (31-4) has won eight of their last nine games after their 106-67 win against Utah State as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue exorcised some of their demons last week after Fairleigh Dickinson knocked them off in the Round of 64 last year despite being a one seed. The Boilermakers had an easy time of it in a 78-50 victory against Grambling State before their 39-point win against the Aggies over the weekend. But this remains a program that has not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019 — so nerves may play a role for this team that has been National Championship or bust ambitions all season. Purdue made 55.9% of their shots against Utah State which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Aggies to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have beaten six teams this season by 30 or more points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 next contests going into tonight’s showdown. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. Since getting outrebounded by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue has outrebounded their next three opponents by at least 14 boards. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after outrebounding two straight opponents by ten or more boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after outrebounding three straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. Away from home, Purdue scores -7.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions which ranks 337th in the nation in the worst drop-off from the home offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting — and the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower. And while Gonzaga outscores their opponents by +16.2 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after 15 games into the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. There is a national perception that this is a down year for head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs — but this is a better team since Few inserted Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January. The 6’10 big man makes 38.6% of his 3-pointers — his ability to play on the perimeter opens up space for superstar point guard Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike to operate their pick-and-rolls with plenty of room. Gonzaga ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games led by a nearly unstoppable offense that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency during that span. They lead the nation in their last ten games with an effective field goal percentage of 61.5% -- leading the nation with a 44.2% clip from behind the arc and ranking fourth with a 59.6% mark from inside the arc. The Bulldogs will slow down the Boilermakers' rebounding edge — they outrebound their opponents by +7.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while ranking 52nd in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots. On the road, Gonzaga ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Boilermakers make 49.0% of their shots — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 48% or more of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of Purdue’s 73-63 victory against the Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational on November 20th. A few things from that game. First, Few had yet to insert Gregg into the starting lineup which unleashed the offensive attack. Second, Gonzaga neutralized the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge with both teams pulling down 38 boards. Third, Purdue’s Zach Edey was not called for a foul while Ike was in foul trouble all game with four personal fouls — that is not likely to happen again. Few has had a long time to consider how to adjust to the Boilermakers’ motion offense — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-28-24 |
San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (33-3) has won nine games in a row after their 75-58 victory against Northwestern as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Diego State (26-10) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 85-57 victory against Yale as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t always love laying double-digits but am willing to do it in this instance in this rematch of last year’s National Championship Game. UConn won that game by a 76-59 score — and while they may be even better this season, the Aztecs are not quite as good as that group was last year. While San Diego State ranked eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road last season, they fall to 22nd in that metric when playing away from home this season. The Aztecs give up +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road versus at home this season — and that is the 308th worst discrepancy in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Aztecs' offense is too one-dimensional as they rely too much on big man Jaedon LeDee (who was coming off the bench last year). Huskies head coach has a three-headed monster to slow down LeDee in starters Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban along with Samson Johnson coming off the bench. San Diego State did make 52.7% of their shots against Yale on Sunday but that was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. UConn’s three losses this season have either come from an ice-cold shooting performance or running into a team on fire from behind the arc. But San Diego State only makes 31.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Huskies have won three straight games by 16 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row by 15 or more points. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after not allowing more than 58 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: While San Diego State has revenge on their minds, don’t underestimate the motivation the Huskies have in this game as a measuring stick regarding how this year’s group compares to last year’s squad. UConn has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 | Top | 111-118 |
Loss | -115 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-26-24 |
Fairfield v. Seattle University -6.5 | Top | 58-75 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617) in the Semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-14) has won two games in a row after their 71-57 victory against Evansville as a 9-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Fairfield (24-12) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 77-74 victory against Chicago State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is a solid team out of the Western Athletic Conference who beat Grand Canyon while losing a second game on the road against them in overtime. They also beat Louisiana Tech and lost in double overtime to Washington. Head coach Chris Victor has his team play very good defense — they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency off the strength of their half-court defense. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Stags live and die by the 3-point shot — but the Redhawks rank seventh in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc. Seattle should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. On the road, they are scoring +7.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while Fairfield outscores their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game, Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Stags nailed 57.7% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. But Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. And while they have won nine of their last 11 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. The Stags are a good offensive team — but they struggle to stop their opponents on the other end of the court. Fairfield ranks 243rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The problems are with their interior defense. They allow their opponent to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 303rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the nation. Seattle limits their opponents to 41.4% shooting — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. Fairfield had a 10-4 record when playing at home — but they rank 272nd in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games including all five of those circumstances this season.
FINAL TAKE: Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season — and the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games in a tournament setting. 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year with the playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 | Top | 96-88 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-24-24 |
Iowa v. Utah -5 | Top | 82-91 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847) in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah (20-14) won for the second time in their last three games after their 84-75 victory against UC-Irvine as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (19-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 91-82 victory at home against Kansas State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah ranks top-50 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have beaten six teams that made the NCAA Tournament: Saint Mary’s, BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. They are particularly tough to beat at home where they enjoy an altitude edge in Provo — especially against teams from the east like Iowa. The Utes have a 15-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +16.5 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 38.7% shooting including a 31.5% mark from behind the arc that results in 67.9 PPG on their home court. They make 49.4% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — and they enjoy the 24th biggest jump in that metric when compared to playing away from home. Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Iowa made 48.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They scored 78 points in their 12-point loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Hawkeyes rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they struggle on the other end of the court. They rank 151st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 188th in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Interior defense is a significant problem as they allow their home hosts to make 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in at 160 or higher, they have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: Utah outscores their opponents by +5.5 PPG — and Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB 2nd Round NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-22-24 |
TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 |
Loss | -115 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:55 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-12) has lost four of their last six games after their 60-45 loss to Houston as an 11.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Utah State (27-6) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 86-70 loss to San Diego State as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU shot a season-low 23.3% from the field in their loss to the Cougars who might be the best defensive team in the country. But head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to play tonight. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. And while they missed 18 of their 20 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-pointers — including all four of those occasions this season. TCU has been resilient under Dixon’s guidance — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss including eight of their previous 11 losses this season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival including six of those nine occasions this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. Dixon has his team engage in a style of play that leads to success in single-elimination games because he emphasizes seizing extra possessions. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They are also an above-average 3-point shooting team that makes 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. TCU scores +1.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road as opposed to being at home. And while the fact that they give up +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road is concerning, when looking at just their six games played on a neutral court, they allow -0.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions versus home and true road games — and those six contests include four games against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 contests. I worry about this Aggies team in tournament settings because they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, this team plays like his previous Montana State teams. They get to the free throw line — and they are an outstanding shooting team inside the arc where they rank tenth in the nation by making 57.1% of their shots. But they only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th in the nation. They do not create many second chances for themselves on the offensive glass as they pull down only 28.5% of their missed shots, ranking 192nd in the nation. And they force turnovers in only 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 223rd in the nation. On the road, they are scoring -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — so the old-school Bobby Knight style of play on offense does not travel well for them. And they do not play the same quality of defense as those Knight teams from the 1970s and 80s. Utah State ranks 67th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 303rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games in the postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of their eight games this season under Sprinkle. TCU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against those teams when playing them 15 games into the season. This Horned Frogs team has high-profile wins against Houston and Baylor. Lastly, TCU ranks 296th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s Luck Factor rankings based on his analytics while the Aggies rank 14th in that metric — so perhaps this is a game that the Regression Gods have circled. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game of the Year with the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-21-24 |
Drake v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 61-66 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (28-6) has won five straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after upsetting Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game as a 3-point underdog on March 10th. Washington State (24-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 58-52 loss to Colorado as a 2-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs nailed 51.7% of their shots in their upset victory against the Sycamores 11 days ago which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. With the extended layoff between games, their shooting may be rusty tonight — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests — so head coach Darian DeVries will likely have his team tighten up on that end of the court. Drake struggled on the defensive end of the court in hostile environments where they had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 103.9 — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their seven games on neutral courts of 97.8 this season was in line with their 98.5 defensive efficiency clip when playing on their home court. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, Drake has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders and 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Drake scores -2.7 fewer Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they do not engage the things to increase their scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. They force turnovers in just 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 142nd. They rank 186th in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not gotten great point guard play from sophomore Conor Enright or freshman Coby Colby who split time — it is why DeVries has resorted to deploying his son, Tucker, as a point forward. But that may not be effective against the outstanding half-court defense of the Cougars. Drake can’t get mired into being too reliant on outside shooting where they do make 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. Washington State ranks 51st in the nation by holding their opponents to a 31.6% shooting clip from behind the arc when playing away from home — and they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Myles Rice is their only player who has the skills to create Despite their loss to the Buffaloes last week, they held them to just 43.1% shooting. They surrender -3.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they also only score 69.7 PPG on the road which is -4.7 fewer PPG than their season average — and the -8.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road represents the 342nd worst drop in scoring efficiency when compared to their home numbers. Head coach Kyle Smith is going to slow this game to a crawl — the Cougars rank 315th in the nation with only 64.9 adjusted possessions per game. Washington State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. And while the Bulldogs make 47.9% of their shots, the Cougars have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to be a rock fight given the lack of scoring options for both teams. Washington State has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 Points-Per-Game — and Drake has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-20-24 |
Colorado v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 60-53 |
Loss | -109 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-66 loss to New Mexico in a pick ‘em match last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Colorado (24-10) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 75-68 upset loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the finals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado is a bit challenging to figure out as they played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Buffaloes did deal with some injuries this season with freshman phenom Cody Williams missing 13 games being the most impactful. He is back on the court again, although he may not be 100%. I appreciate the narrative that this team underperformed high preseason expectations — but they are playing at that level now that they are close to 100% again. But problems remain. For starters, Colorado played much better at home in Boulder where they usually have an advantage over their visitors given the high altitude. With a 16-1 record at home, they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when evaluating home court edges. Of note is their 42.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc which ranks fifth best in the nation for home teams. But when away from Boulder, the Buffaloes drop to 47th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and their statistical drop represents the 292nd biggest split in the nation. They allow +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, ranking 321st in the country in the biggest rise in opponent scoring. Colorado is simply not a great defensive team away from home as they rank 91st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. On offense, the Buffaloes score -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, ranking 284th in the nation with that drop in offensive efficiency. They make 35.8% of their 3-pointers on the road which still ranks 59th in the country — but that -6.9% drop represents the 325th worst loss of shooting effectiveness. They also turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. And while their game with the Ducks finished Over the 140-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Buffaloes have not been reliably resilient under head coach Tad Boyle after setbacks either. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games — so a letdown may be looming for this team. Boise State has been stewing to get back on the court after making only 29.4% of their shots against the Lobos in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have converted at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making at least 10 shots from distance in two or more games in a row. Boise State ranks 49th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home led by its defense that ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.0% 3-point shooting away from home. Overall, the Broncos rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.1% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: Boise State’s Leon Rice is one of the most underrated in the business — and he has led the Broncos to now three straight NCAA Tournaments. This is Colorado’s first trip to the Big Dance in three years. The public loves the Buffaloes tonight — and the fact that Mountain West Conference teams are 23-46-2 ATS in the Big Dance since 2006 (not sure if that counts Colorado State’s victory last night) is probably playing a role in that sentiment. Besides Colorado’s tournament inexperience, their best victory this season was likely against a Washington State team that ranks 42nd in the nation at KenPom despite playing in the Pac-12. Boise State played a top-30 schedule in the nation — and they have seven victories that all rate better than that using KenPom’s metrics: Saint Mary’s (#18th); San Diego State twice (#20th); New Mexico twice (#22nd); Colorado State (#30); Nevada (#34th). With the Buffaloes now laying -3 to even -3.5s, the strong value is with the battle-tested underdog. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-19-24 |
Colorado State v. Virginia UNDER 121 | Top | 67-42 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers tend to get into rock fight contests — especially against teams unfamiliar with their brand of the pack line defense. Virginia ranks seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also like to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. They rank 352nd in the nation by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 362nd in the nation by averaging 59.9 adjusted possessions per game. Head coach Tony Bennett has had his team slow things down even more lately. In the Cav’s last three games, they have averaged 21.0, 21.5, and 22.6 seconds per possession. For some context, Air Force was the slowest team in the nation averaging 20.5 seconds per possession — so Bennett has his team going even slower than that. Virginia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while this is their third game since Thursday, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Virginia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Colorado State has played 8 straight Unders after winning four of their last five games. And while the Rams have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then played 4 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in four or more of their last five games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. But the Rams’ 46.4% shooting percentage and 72.4 PPG scoring mark away from home are 2.4% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. They score -4.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They rank 241st in the nation by making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc away from home — and their inability to make 3s will make solving the Virginia pack line defense very difficult. They are led by point guard Isaiah Stevens — but he has a difficult challenge tonight when he will be guarded by Reece Beekman who is a glove defensively. Colorado State has played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when on a neutral court — and Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-104 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-17-24 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (25-8) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 98-87 victory against Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite in their semifinal showdown yesterday. Wisconsin (76-75) has won three games in a row after their 76-75 upset victory in overtime against Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog in their semifinal game yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois was locked in with their 3-point shooting yesterday as they nailed 13 of their 35 shots en route to their victory. They should build off that momentum this afternoon. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last game. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a win by double-digits. The Illini did allow the Cornhuskers to make 46% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. The Fighting Illini rank fifth in the nation's Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for a physical and emotional after outlasting the Boilermakers in overtime yesterday. This is a tough matchup for the Badgers against this Illinois team that plays fast and scores tons of points. The Fighting Illini score 83.7 Points-Per-Game while launching 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 77 or more PPG. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. The Badgers struggle with their perimeter defense — they rank 347th in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert on a whopping 37.2% of their 3-point shots. Wisconsin’s opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0% ranks 262nd in the nation. Inexplicably, Purdue only attempted 16 shots from behind the arc yesterday with their head coach Matt Painter seemingly lost control of the script and still freaked out regarding how to have his team play in one-and-down contests after they got upset as a number one seed last year in the Big Dance. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood will not make that mistake today. The Badgers score -5.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 209th in the nation in the drop off in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-16-24 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky UNDER 145 | Top | 71-78 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UTEP (18-15) has won five straight games after their 65-63 upset win against Sam Houston State as a 5-point underdog yesterday afternoon. Western Kentucky (21-11) has won two games in a row after their 85-54 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTEP only made 43.7% of their shots yesterday — but they held the Bearkats to just 41.2% shooting while holding them to just 53 points. The Miners have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Conference USA opponent — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less this season. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 9 games played with one day or less of rest, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. UTEP only makes 41.3% of their shots on the road resulting in just 65.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.7% and -7.2 PPG below their season averages. They rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road which is the 262nd worst drop in the country. But the Miners also rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are giving up -1.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. A key dynamic for this contest is that UTEP leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. The Hilltoppers play at the fastest pace in the nation — but the pressure the Miners present will slow down their attack. Western Kentucky ranks 262nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. UTEP has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. Western Kentucky wants to build off their strong defensive effort yesterday after limiting the Blue Raiders to just 31.0% shooting in their 31-point victory. The Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. And while they made 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc yesterday, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. Western Kentucky has scored 85 or more points in their two tournament games this week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have scored at least 79 points in five straight games — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Hilltoppers’ fast pace makes Overs tempting when considering them but they only make 45.4% of their shots on the road resulting in 77.7 PPG — and those numbers are -1.4% and -3.0 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They are also giving up -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Western Kentucky has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Western Kentucky won on their home court by a 90-80 score on February 15th. The Miners have played 5 of their 6 opportunities to avenge an earlier loss this season Under the Total. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-15-24 |
Alabama A&M v. Texas Southern UNDER 136 | Top | 65-72 |
Loss | -112 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504) in the Semifinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama A&M (12-21) has won three of their last four games after their 75-63 upset victory against Alcorn State as a 3-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Wednesday. Texas Southern (15-15) has won six of their last seven contests after their 72-62 victory as a 3-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Alabama A&M has pulled off two straight upsets relying on their defense. After holding Southern University to 37.2% shooting last Saturday in their 66-56 victory, they limited Alcorn State to just a 37.0% field goal percentage in their upset victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. Alabama A&M has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contest. But the Bulldogs rank only 356th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Granted, we are talking about a SWAC team in what is not one of the strongest conferences in the nation. But they rank just 10th in the SWAC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they fall to 11th in that metric when playing on the road. They are making only 40.6% of their shots on the road including just 25.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 66.4 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But back to their defense which has held their last five opponents to 64.4 PPG from 39.7% shooting from the field — and those marks are -11.0 PPG and -2.7% below their season averages. They lead the SWAC by limiting their opponents to making only 41.7% of their shots inside the arc. SWAC opponents are making only 38.5% of their shots against them overall — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in conference play. Furthermore, Alabama A&M has played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas Southern comes off their best defensive game of the season after limiting Jackson State to a 32.3% shooting percentage yesterday. While I often think that is a mark screaming out for the Regression Gods, in this instance I suspect it is reflective of the tough defense this team has embraced under head coach Johnny Jones as they enter the postseason. That game finished Under the 140.5-point total — and the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their previous game. Texas Southern is second in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference in that metric when playing on the road. They also rank a very respectable 60th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. On the road, Texas Southern holds their opponents to -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But unfortunately for them, they also score -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They only make 39.3% of their shots including 29.1% of their 3-pointers away from home resulting in just 65.8 PPG — and those marks are -2.1% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. Their last five-game scoring numbers are up — but that comes from three games on their home court where they scored at least 79 points in each game while generating 84.0 PPG. But in their last three games away from home, they have not scored more than 77 points. The Tigers have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern won the only previous meeting between these teams this season in an 85-69 victory at home. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-15-24 |
Wichita State v. UAB -4.5 | Top | 60-72 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (829) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (20-11) has won two straight games after their 74-70 victory against SMU as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Wichita State (15-18) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 71-65 upset victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point underdog in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB enters this tournament rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Blazers are one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country — they rank 22nd in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they led the American Athletic Conference by making 75.7% of their shots on the charity stripe. These team attributes travel — UAB scores +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 28th in the nation in their improvement when Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. Wichita State held the Tigers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three of their last four games so an emotional letdown this afternoon appears likely. Wichita State ranks only 205th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score -3.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 321st in the nation in the drop in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court when an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Wichita State won the only meeting between these two teams back on February 28th by a 74-66 score as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games playing with revenge including all four of those opportunities this season. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus Wichita State Shockers (829). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-14-24 |
New Mexico State v. Western Kentucky -6.5 | Top | 69-89 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (19-11) has lost four games in a row after their 82-79 loss at Liberty as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. New Mexico State (13-18) has won two games in a row after their 77-70 win against Florida International as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky allowed the Flames to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They had not allowed an opponent to make 50% or more of their shots until their last two contests. The Hilltoppers have given up 82 or more points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they rank fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing -3.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. This is just their second game since March 2nd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. New Mexico State nailed made 44.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They rank 297th in the nation and last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Aggies scored 49 points in the first half of that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 45 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. Now they go back on the road where they have just one victory in 16 games — and they are getting outscored by -16.2 Points-Per-Game in those contests. New Mexico State only makes 40.5% of their shots including 25.5% of their 3-pointers on the road resulting in just 63.4 PPG. But the decline in defense when playing away from home is even more dramatic. They allow their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They rank 356th in the nation in the drop they experience in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against WAC rivals. Another intangible dragging this team down is that they rank 349th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and the Hilltoppers make 73.4% of their free throws. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games after Western Kentucky won the last meeting by a 72-58 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 17th. But the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games in conference tournament action. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year is with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-14-24 |
Niagara +2 v. Marist | Top | 59-65 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Niagara (16-15) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 victory against Siena as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Marist (17-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 63-62 win against Niagara as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PURPLE EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Niagara should build off the momentum of their victory in the first round of this tournament on Tuesday — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by three points or less in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 12 road games when playing with one day or less of rest, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. The Purple Eagles are a good team away from home where they allow -10.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They also score +2.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. Overall, they rank third in the nation in the bump they receive in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from their home court. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and the Red Foxes rank ninth defensively in that category in conference play. Niagara has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Marist can struggle to score baskets — they rank 321st in the nation and ninth in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They held the Purple Eagles to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but the Red Foxes have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread only once in their last six games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Marist ranks 229th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin when playing away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in March.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with the Purple Eagles winning by five points in January. Niagara has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-13-24 |
Lehigh +8.5 v. Colgate | Top | 55-74 |
Loss | -114 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542) in the Championship Game of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (14-17) has won two games in a row — and seven of their last nine contests — after their 84-79 win in overtime at Boston University as a 2-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Sunday. Colgate (24-9) is on a four-game winning streak after their 68-65 victory against Bucknell as a 12-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Lehigh was terrible in the first half on the road against the Terriers as they fell behind by 21 points before going into the locker room trailing by 18 points. They only made 40.0% of their shots in that game which was terrible worst shooting effort in their last three games. But they nailed 12 shots from behind the arc, made 24 of their 30 shots at the charity stripe, and forced 16 turnovers in 20.8% of Boston University’s possessions to rally back and steal the game. With that lesson in hand, the Mountain Hawks should play much better tonight and not dig themselves such a hole. They have held their last five opponents to 41.7% shooting resulting in just 66.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -3.9 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks fourth in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Colgate held Bucknell to just 38.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But despite their four-game winning streak, the Raiders have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after two or more wins in a row where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Colgate is vulnerable even as a Patriot League giant because they do not create additional scoring possessions. They only pull down 23.6% of their missed shots in conference play and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and both those marks rank sixth in the Patriot League. They thrive by usually making the shots they take — but they were cold from behind the arc on Sunday as they made only 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. The Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their previous 4 games after failing to make more than 20% of their 3-pointers in their last game. They earned the right to host this game after winning the regular season crown — but they rank 246th in the nation in the drop Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their efficiency numbers when playing on the road. Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colgate swept both meetings with the Mountain Hawks in the regular season — but both their victories were by just three points including a 60-57 escape at home as an 11-point favorite on January 22nd. The Raiders then won by a 63-60 score on March 2nd — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Tournament Game of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-12-24 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland -3.5 | Top | 76-83 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623) in the Championship Game of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (22-11) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests after their 74-71 victory against Cleveland State as a 3.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (20-14) has won six straight games after their 82-75 upset victory against Northern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog in their semifinal contest last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland should have covered the point spread last night — but rather than letting a flung half-court shot by the Vikings go uncontested the Grizzlies player fouled the Cleveland State shooter giving them three shots at the charity stripe. Even after that, Oakland covers the -3.5 if they hit their final free throw with only a second or two left in the game — but, nope. The Grizzlies still won that game despite only making 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oakland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win against a Horizon League rival by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oakland has a 12-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up win. They rank 11th in the nation with their improvement in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court when favored by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in tournament action. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 150s. Wisconsin-Milwaukee held the Norse to host 39.1% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Panthers still rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Panthers score -5.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 204th in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies make 45.0% of their shots — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams who make at least 45.0% of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland swept the two regular season games between these two teams after their 90-87 win on the road on January 27th — and the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Game of the Year with the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-11-24 |
San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 150.5 | Top | 77-89 |
Loss | -109 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (23-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-51 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. Gonzaga (24-6) has won eight straight games after their 70-57 upset victory at Saint Mary’s as a 3.5-point underdog on March 2nd. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. They stepped up their play on defense by holding the Pilots to just 32.7% shooting — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55% of their shots in their last contest. Additionally, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points against a West Coast Conference rival. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. And they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They are making 45.7% of their shots on the road resulting in 71.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.3% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in those road games. But on the other end of the court, they are holding their opponents to just 42.2% shooting with a 32.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.9 PPG. The Dons rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to the eighth-best defense in the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on the road ranking 21st in the nation — and they are giving up -8.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Gonzaga made 51.7% of their shots against the Gaels which was the worst shooting effort in their alt three games — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have won six straight games by 13 or more points — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 13 games on the road after winning four or more games in a row, they have then played 11 of these games Under the Total. The Bulldogs are scoring 80.3 PPG away from home with a 49.6% field goal percentage — but those numbers are still -5.3 PPG and -2.3% below their season averages. They hold their opponents to 42.7% shooting and 69.9 PPG on the road — and they are giving up -3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. Interestingly, head coach Mark Few has his team playing at a slower pace lately — they are averaging 1.3 fewer possessions per game in their last ten games. The Dons are outscoring their opponents by +12.3 PPG — and Gonzaga has played 7 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 161.5 | Top | 65-78 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). THE SITUATION: Arizona (88-65) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 88-65 victory as a 9.5-point favorite as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. USC (13-17) has won two games in a row after their 81-73 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 51.9% of their shots against the Bruins which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 51.8% of their shots in their last five contests. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 90.3 Points-Per-Game. They have scored 85 or more points in four straight games as well as nine of their last 11 contests. But they have also allowed 75 or more points in five of their last eight contests as well. They play at a very fast pace — they average only 15.1 seconds per possession which is the eighth quickest mark in the nation. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while this is just their second game since February 28th, they have then played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. Arizona stays on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +4.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they are also giving up 80.6 PPG on the road — and the +8.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are giving up away from home represents the 342nd biggest jump in the nation. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. USC has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Trojans have scored 163 combined points in their last two games — and they are making 48.6% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 77.8 PPG. But they have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Sun Devils enjoyed a 50% shooting clip against them on Thursday. USC has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the Trojans rank 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total on their home court. USC has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won the first meeting on January 17th by an 82-67 score as a 20.5-point favorite — and the Trojans have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-09-24 |
Rhode Island v. Fordham OVER 146.5 | Top | 58-50 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). THE SITUATION: Rhode Island (11-19) has lost seven games in a row after their 69-57 loss at home to George Mason as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Fordham (12-18) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after a 66-64 loss at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Rhode Island made only 29.4% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting performance of their season. That game finished well Under the 142.5-point total — but these Rams have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Rhode Island has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots resulting in 84.0 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they rank 337th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots and 37.3% of their 3-pointers when on the road resulting in 81.9 PPG. They are surrendering +5.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road — but they are also scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home as well. They rank 35th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home — and Fordham allows their guests to make 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Rhode Island has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Rhode Island should also get plenty of points from the charity stripe as they lead the Atlantic 10 in free throw rate — and Fordham is last in the conference in putting their opponent on the line. Fordham has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Their loss against the Minutemen on Wednesday finished Under the 143-point Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Fordham ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they rank 222nd in the nation in that metric. They allow their opponents to guests to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 73.7 PPG — and they are giving up +9.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They are also scoring +3.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The hosting Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs at home when playing 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-68 score as a 2.5-point underdog on January 24th — and Rhode Island has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-08-24 |
Western Illinois +6 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 57-82 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Illinois (21-11) won for the fourth straight time with their 61-59 triumph against Tennessee State as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event yesterday. Arkansas-Little Rock (20-11) has won nine straight games after their 81-43 victory against Tennessee Tech as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO THE LEATHERNECKS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Illinois survived yesterday’s game despite making only 37.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Leathernecks controlled the boards with a 52-36 edge in rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. This team does two things well that usually translate to neutral courts. First, Western Illinois ranks 13th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots — and they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by rebounding 39.2% of their misses. They grabbed 19 second chances yesterday representing 45.2% of their missed shots. They should control the offensive glass tonight as well — the Trojans rank 227th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots. Second, the Leathernecks play great half-court defense. They rank 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. They also rank 20th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — so they make it very tough on their opponents to score points. Western Illinois has not allowed more than 65 points in their last two games — and they have ten covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have covered the points spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. They have an 11-6 record away from home where they are scoring +2.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions while holding their opponents to -4.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They rank 25th in the nation in their improved play away from home in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are holding teams to just 40.6% shooting including a 28.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.8 Points-Per-Game. Western Illinois ranks eighth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% when playing on the road. They hold these teams to just 46.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 21st in the nation — and they allow these opponents to make only 28.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking ninth in the nation. The Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against Ohio Valley Conference opponents. Little Rock held Tennessee Tech to just 30% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Trojans have scored at least 80 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning five or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or more games in a row. On the road, they have a 6-7 record while making 46.0% of their shots. They only hit 30.0% of the 3-pointers away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. They score -2.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. But the bigger concern is on the other end of the court where they allow +7.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home. They rank 335th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Little Rock won the first meeting between these two teams in a 63-60 upset win as a 1.5-point road underdog back on February 28th — but the Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-07-24 |
Utah v. Oregon State +7.5 | Top | 85-92 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-17) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 78-71 loss at Oregon as a 13.5-point underdog last Thursday. Utah (18-11) has won three of their last four games after their 88-59 victory against California as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Ducks to make 49.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now after playin' their last three games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +5.6 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home — and they are giving up -8.8 points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. Oregon State ranks eighth in the nation in the bump up in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they are playing on their home court. The Beavers hold their opponents to just 41.1% shooting and a 30.9% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.6 Points-Per-Game. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah nailed 50.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 contests. They also held the Golden Bears to 34.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. After playing one of their best games of the season, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread only once in their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 4-9 record with an average losing margin of -7.9 PPG. Utah is only making 43.5% of their shots on the road including just 32.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 71.3 PPG. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.8% of their shots including 38.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 79.2 PPG. The Utes are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in true road games. Utah ranks 171st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 55.2% ranks 319th in the nation. Furthermore, they rank 361st in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games in conference play. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as a favorite or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams at home at Salt Lake City by a 74-47 score as a 15-point favorite. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 game games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-06-24 |
Utah State v. San Jose State OVER 144.5 | Top | 90-70 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). THE SITUATION: Utah State (24-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six after their 72-60 victory against Air Force as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. San Jose State (9-21) has lost five games in a row after their 68-50 loss at UNLV as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies rank 11th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they lead the Mountain West Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Utah State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win at home by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 60 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 76.4 Points-Per-Game while giving up 72.5 PPG. They rank second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but sit just eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they are giving up +8.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road in hostile environments. The Aggies have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss where they did not score more than 60 points — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. And while their loss to the Runnin’ Rebels finished Under the 138.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Spartans return home where they are nailing 47.8% of their shots resulting in 76.1 PPG — and those marks represent a +6.2 PPG and a +3.1% bump over their season averages. But they are also allowing their guests to make 47.4% of their shots including 39.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG which is +2.2 PPG higher than their season defensive average. San Jose State scores +8.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions when at home which ranks 29th in the nation in the biggest jump. They also allow +4.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home, ranking 307th worst in the country. The Spartans have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation as they rank 281st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 331st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% which does not bode well against a great shooting team like the Aggies. Utah State made 60% of their shots including a 6 of 12 mark from behind the arc en route to their 82-61 victory against the Spartans at home on January 30th — and San Jose State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-05-24 |
Jacksonville v. Eastern Kentucky -8.5 | Top | 67-65 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Eastern Kentucky (17-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-67 loss at Lipscomb as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Jacksonville (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak before their 92-86 upset win at Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins broke out by making 50.0% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. They nailed 13 of their 21 shots 61.9% from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. That performance was well out of character for this Jacksonville team that ranks last in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and their 47.3% effective field goal percentage. They rank 281st in the nation by making only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I hate the situation the Dolphins are now in having to travel from Georgia to Kentucky without a day of rest as this tournament continues. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Dolphins are just 3-13 away from home — and they rank 330th in the nation and last in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Net Efficiency in hostile environments. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They face an angry Eastern Kentucky team that only made 39.7% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Eastern Kentucky returns where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They rank 203rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court (not bad for a low mid-major) while leading the Atlantic Sun in that metric. They are scoring 87.1 PPG at home from 48.7% shooting from the field and a 38.4% clip from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Dolphins play pretty good defense — but they rank 313th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Eastern Kentucky ranks third in the conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They also lead the Atlantic Sun with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7%.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville wants to avenge a 75-59 loss at Eastern Kentucky as an 11-point underdog on January 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-04-24 |
Northern Colorado v. Northern Arizona +4 | Top | 82-74 |
Loss | -107 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Northern Arizona (14-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 85-58 loss at Weber State as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado (18-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 81-79 upset victory against Idaho State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LUMBERJACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Arizona only made 31.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The Lumberjacks should bounce back tonight — they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss to a Big Sky Conference rival including five of those last seven circumstances this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-4 record this season while holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting including a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Northern Arizona plays solid half-court defense when playing at home — they rank fourth in the Big Sky with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9% on their home court and they rank in the top-four in both 3-point defense and 2-point defense at home in conference play. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Head coach Shane Burcar led his team to a big March run last year — they reached the Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship Game despite a 5-13 record in conference play in the regular season. Under Burcar, Northern Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 47 games as an underdog. They now host a Northern Colorado team that is a vulnerable road favorite. The Bears rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and they rank eighth in the Big Sky in that category when on the road. They have a 7-9 record on the road while getting outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 81.9 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots including 37.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 287th in the nation when assessing play on the road. They rank 304th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They made 60.0% of their shots on Saturday against the Bengals which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They have scored 81 points in two straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are vulnerable against good offensive rebounding teams — but that is not the Bears who rank 307th in the nation in that category. And while Northern Arizona only makes 43.6% of their shots, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are not making more than 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Arizona looks to avenge a 92-87 loss at Northern Colorado on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-02-24 |
North Carolina-Asheville v. Radford OVER 147.5 | Top | 71-62 |
Loss | -109 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (19-11) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 78-77 upset loss at home against Gardner-Webb as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Radford (15-15) had their two-game winning streak end in a 58-57 upset loss at Charleston Southern as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots in their loss last week which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. UNC-Asheville has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after an upset loss to a Big South rival. And while that game with Gardner-Webb finished Over the 1553.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last contest. The Bulldogs lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9% — and they rank 22nd in the nation by making 37.5% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 75.9 Points-Per-Game -- fueled by the sixth-best free throw rate when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 47th in the nation by making 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. But UNC-Asheville ranks 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 307th in that nation in that metric when playing on the road in hostile environments. The adjusted +8.3 points per 100 possessions they allow in hostile environments represents the 339th worst spike in the country. They are giving up 78.8 PPG in those games. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. The Highlanders make 46.5% of their shots — and UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams making 45% or more of their shots. Radford made only 41.8% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They still rank third in the Big South in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five games. More surprisingly, they held Charleston Southern to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Highlanders rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in the Big South in that category. Radford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they are scoring 76.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting — and those marks are +3.4 PPG and +3.0% above their season average. The Highlanders rank 14th in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court. But they also rank 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and the +5.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions they allow represents the 318th biggest jump when assessing home court play. Radford has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Bulldogs average eight made 3s per game, the Highlanders have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Radford has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-01-24 |
Old Dominion v. Georgia Southern OVER 152.5 | Top | 75-92 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (7-23) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 89-64 loss at Appalachian State as a 14.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (7-23) has won two of their last three games after their 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Old Dominion plays at a fast pace — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per Game while ranking 46th in their Average Possession Length. They have been playing even quicker in conference play as they lead the Sun Belt with 72.5 Adjusted Possessions per Game while averaging 16.2 Seconds per Possession. The Monarchs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Old Dominion ranks 214th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to ranking 312th in the nation in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Furthermore, they rank 233rd in the nation in their drop in Adjusted Net Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.3% of their shots resulting in 82.5 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 73.2 PPG in those road games. The Monarchs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rises by 5.5 points when they are playing in hostile environments — and that bump ranks as the 38th biggest jump in the nation. Old Dominion has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their games. Georgia Southern played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Thundering Herd to 73 points. The Eagles rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But by making 56.9% of their shots in that game on Wednesday, they made at least 50.9% of their shots for the third time in their last four games. Georgia Southern has scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 80.0 PPG. They have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. They have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a victory by ten or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they are making 47.1% of their shots including 41.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.5 PPG. They are scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and that rise in efficiency is the sixth largest for home courts in the nation. Georgia Southern has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion only makes 41.9% of their shots but they average 62 shot attempts per game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-29-24 |
Towson v. North Carolina A&T UNDER 132.5 | Top | 84-58 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). THE SITUATION: Towson (17-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-56 loss to the College of Charleston as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina A&T (7-22) has lost seven straight games after their 83-67 loss at Monmouth as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers allowed the Cougars to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games — and the 72 points they gave up was the most they had allowed in five straight contests. Towson still leads the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting from the field resulting in only 61.4 Points-Per-Game. The Tigers should tighten things up on defense tonight — they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 15 or more points. But Towson can struggle to score points. They rank 227th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are just eighth in the conference in that category. They go back on the road where they are only making 38.4% of their shots resulting in just 62.3 PPG. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored by double-digits. UNC A&T only made 28.3% of their shots on Saturday — but that was only their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last five games in a span where they have not shot better than 38.2% from the field. In their last five games, the Aggies are making only 32.4% of their shots resulting in just 57.6 PPG. They are last in the Colonial Athletic Association and 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The 67 points they scored was their highest total in their last nine contests. UNC A&T has then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 45.1% shooting resulting in 68.5 PPG — and those marks are -3.2% and -9.7 PPG lower than their season averages. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams can shoot the basketball. Towson ranks 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.7% and UNC A&T ranks 355th with an eFG of 44.2%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and the Aggies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). Best of luck for us — Frank. |