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We had Tyson Fury as our Best Bet in the rematch of their split decision draw on February 22nd, 2020. Fury was in much better shape for the second fight after outboxing Deontay Wilder in the first fight but losing points when he was knocked down in the 12th round and barely survived the 12-count (Undertaker style). Fury learned from the first fight and dominated Wilder by knocking him down twice before Wilder’s camp threw in the towel in the seventh round. At the time, we concluded that Wilder had a matchup dilemma when facing Fury: it is difficult to rely on a one-punch knockout against an opponent that is 40 pounds heavier. Wilder is a dynamic knockout artist — but he is a below boxer lacking technical skills and his in-ring IQ is not great. He gained weight for the rematch — coming in at 230 pounds (after the heavy costume he walked into the ring with which he later claimed tired him out). That was the heaviest he ever entered into a fight — yet the 6’9 Fury weighed in over 270-lbs. Fury leaned on Wilder, wore him down — and then wore him out. He is not a big puncher — but he is an excellent technical fighter with in-ring smarts who is just huge (and he knows how to use his size). This is simply a very difficult challenge for Wilder to overcome. At 6’7, he made his career in being the bigger fighter. He gets bullied by Fury.

Nineteen months later, the two questions are (1) what has Wilder done differently to prepare for this third fight, and (2) what kind of shape is Fury in entering the fight? Fury seems in good shape. His positive COVID test that delayed the original August date probably helped him since it gave him two more months to ensure he is in good physical condition. Trainer Sugerhill Stewart has doubled-down on the winning strategy in the second fight as will enter the ring tonight weighing over 290 pounds with the added weight seemingly muscle (rather than diet coke weight — his regimen for the first fight). Wilder may be spotting Fury 60 pounds — and yet planning to out-punch him.

If Wilder could improve his boxing skills, he could do more to put his powerful right hand in a position to do damage. After connecting on just 17% of his power punches in the first fight, he only connected on 33% of his power punches in the second fight — both career lows. Fury’s defensive tactics frustrate Wilder more than any other fighter. While the punch numbers were up, that could be indicative of Fury no longer feating Wilder’s best punch. He claims he took Wilder’s best punch in the first fight and no longer fears it — and that is why he became the bully in the first rematch. Has Wilder gotten into the trenches to improve his boxing skills? It appears the answer is “no.” He changed managers mid-training to Malik Scott, a previous first-round knockout victim of Wilder who has no training or coaching experience at the top level. It looks like a grift. Frankly, at 35-years old, Wilder was never likely to remake his fighting approach. He will cash a check again with the excuse of the heavy costume he wore for his ring entrance in the second fight. Maybe he gets lucky with his punching power. Probably not. Our Best Bet is on Tyson Fury to win the fight.

Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on the fight to go over 7.5 rounds. I do think Fury will be more mindful of his pre-fight regimen and costume design — so he should have more endurance. I think the strategy for both fighters is for the fight to go longer. Wilder needs more time to land the one-punch that almost saved him in the first fight — and Fury will want to be patient to wear Wilder out given his size advantage. Our Long Shot Bet on a prop that offers a return of 2:1 or better is on Fury to win the fight from Rounds 7 to 12 (DraftKings lists this at +225). This seems to be Fury’s most likely route to victory — wear down Wilder before his small legs eventually give away and he gets knocked down again (and again).

Money management: Given these conclusions, I think bettors need to pick and choose a bit. Wilder has at least a puncher's chance to win -- I don't want anyone betting five or more units to then lose all of it under that situation. Perhaps if you want to bet Fury to win (at around 3:1 odds), then maybe only do that. Or, put a unit (X = your typical bet) on the Over 7.5 rounds and 50% to 100% of X on the Long Shot Fury to win between the 7th and 12 rounds. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Dana White has proclaimed that the winner of this fight will be considered the greatest UFC Heavyweight champion of all-time. These two first fought on July 8th, 2018 when Stipe Miocic (19-3) was the UFC Heavyweight Champion. Cormier was making the step up in weight classes after leaving his Light Heavyweight Championship vacated. Cormier was looking for Miocic to drop his left hand when striking with his right — and when that happened, Cormier pounced with a big right hand of his known dropped and stunned Miocic. Cormier pounced and clobbered Miocic on the mat to earn the sudden 1st round knockout. In the rematch on August 17th of last year, Cormier was dictating the pace once again with his aggressive pressure and heavy-clinching approach. Miocic adjusted in the 4th round to begin targeting Cormier midsection — he landed 14 of 16 strikes in that round. When this opened Cormier up, Miocic then nailed big shots to the head and avenged his loss by scoring a knockout victory to regain the title. This trilogy match is the first time both fighters are back in the ring. Cormier claims this will be his last fight with his expectation he will retire as a champion in two divisions like Georges St. Pierre. A Miocic victory not only adds to his legacy but sets up another super fight with Francis Ngannou.

Our Best Bet is on Miocic to win this fight which Bovada lists at -110 (which makes him a slight underdog to Cormier’s -120 price). I don’t think the first fight can be evaluated without taking into consideration that Miocic was coming off a very physical five-round fight with Ngannou just 4 1/2 months before taking the ring again with Cormier. While he defeated Ngannou, Miocic may have still been vulnerable. And Cormier did score one big punch in what was otherwise a very competitive fight. Miocic has well-rounded skills — and this both serves him while making him vulnerable. Too often, Miocic does not lean on his best attributes but instead addresses his opponents in a style they would prefer. Cormier caught him two years. But Miocic is also smart — and he made the necessary adjustment to expose Cormier in the rematch. Now Miocic has had a year to plan and prepare for this third contest. What can Cormier do to make his adjustment now? Most experts call for Cormier to focus on his wrestling skills where he has an edge over Miocic. The problem here is that Cormier was following that approach in the rematch last August. But Miocic was able to last the first couple of rounds to see a more tired fighter in Cormier — and that was when he felt more comfortable going to the body with some occasional leg strikes. Once Cormier was softened up, he landed his kill shot. So the question for me is whether Cormier can better implement the strategy he was attempting to execute in this third fight? And that means knocking out Miocic in the early rounds again. And Miocic fully understands this. Difficult (but not impossible).

The odds are stacked against him accomplishing the task he could not complete last year. Cormier is now 41-years old and fighting what he is claiming is his swan song. He is a natural light-heavyweight making just his 4th fight at the 265-lb weight class. At 5’11, Cormier is short for this weight — and, frankly, he carries much of his 235 pounds in his belly. The body shots for Miocic have an inviting target. And Miocic’s 80” inch reach gives him a 7.5” inch edge over Cormier to fend off his jabs. Cormier may have an advantage wrestling on the mat but those efforts will sap his energy. And it is not as if Miocic is a bad defensive wrestler (he did fend off him last year). Cormier’s best chance of winning may very well be to continue his shock-and-awe striking approach and hope to land a big shot in the smaller 24-foot octagon at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. However, I think Miocic learned his lesson about dropping his left hand along with not being too aggressive too early (and to space out his fights better before taking on DC). Our Top Overlay Bet is on Miocic to win this fight inside the distance which Bovada lists at +130 odds. I do not see Cormier going 25 minutes in this fight — he either scores the knockout or gets stopped himself. I see this fight going down similar to the rematch but with perhaps Miocic being even more patient early. I like two Long Shot Bets: Miocic to win in the 4th round which Bovada lists at +1000 and Miocic to win in the 5th round which Bovada lists at +1200.

I think there are two betting strategies for this fight for money-management. The simple approach is to take your X stake and place it on the Top Overlay Bet: Miocic to win inside the distance which Bovada has at +130. Simple and easy with a positive payout. Or, place your X stake on the Best Bet on Miocic to win — and then invest 5% of X on both the Long Shot Bets. If X is “to win $100”, then each Long Shot Bet is a $5 investment with the worst-case scenario being a loss of -120 (-110 -5 -5= -120). But if Miocic does defeat Cormier in the 4th or 5th round, then the payout increases from +100 to either +145 (100 + 50 - 5) or +155 (100 +6 -5). Not bad! Best of luck for us — Frank.

The main event for tonight’s UFC Fight Night (UFC Vegas 6) is a heavyweight battle between Derrick Lewis and Aleksei Oleinik in a five-round fight. Lewis is currently the 5th ranked heavyweight in the UFC 265-lb division with two straight victories after his victory over Ilir Latifi on February 8th in UFC 247. The Black Beast is a big hitter who is very active with good cardio. Even when Lewis (23-7-1) gets fatigued, he still maintains his power. Lewis has 18 KOs/TKOs on his resume. His style is straightforward — he is looking to overwhelm his opponents with his power. When he does lose, it is when his opponent both (a) has an overwhelming edge in striking or wrestling, and (b) does not make a mistake. Lewis will punish mistakes. He faces a submission artist in Aleksei Oleinik who has also won his last two fights after a split decision victory over Fabricio Werdum on May 9th at UFC 249. Oleinik (59-13-1) has an incredible 46 submission victories on his resume. He is a master on the mat. His victory over Werdum may be his crowning achievement so far in his career.

Our Best Bet is for Lewis to win this fight which Bovada currently prices at -205. Lewis has underrated mat skills which will offer him a decent defense against Oleynik’s attempts to get him on the ground. It is not difficult to get Lewis on the mat — but he is usually able to use his strength to quickly get back to his feet. At 6’3, Lewis will likely weigh over 270 pounds when he enters the ring tonight. He is dangerous in using his power to reverse positions on the mat where he then punishes his opponent with his power. He only has only one loss via submission on his resume to the legend Daniel Cormier. He will need to fend off Oleinik’s early aggression who will want to end this fight early. But Lewis should be able to use his power to wear down the 43-year old grappler. Fatigue is a significant concern for Oleinik given the eight-year age difference along with his smaller size. The Boa Constrictor will likely be in the 230-lb range when he enters the right. His average fights last 6:14 minutes — while Lewis’ fights extend to an average of 9:55 minutes. The longer this fight goes, the worse it will be for Oleinik. Then again, the Ukrainian may not last that long since his swarming style could get himself in immediate trouble with Lewis. Oleinik suffered 1st round knockout losses to both Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem last year. He is slow and lacks food speed to dodge big punchers. He has endured seven KO/TKO losses in his career. Our Top Overlay Bet on the proposition that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Lewis to win inside the distance. Oleinik only has one realistic route to victory via submission. He is not a kickboxer and his stand-up skills are primarily designed to get his opponent on the mat. But Oleinik has failed to submit the best opponents he has faced. Ranking 10th in the division, he is more of a gatekeeper at this point in his career. He has not fought past the 3rd round in his career — so he is unlikely to be able to grind out a decision with Lewis if he does not get him to submit in the first two rounds of this fight. Lewis’ strength and crafty maneuvers against most submission artists (not named Daniel Cormier) should afford him enough opportunities to batter his opponent eight years his senior. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Robert Whittaker faces Darren Till in the headlining event of UFC Fight Island 3 with the winner possibly poised for a title shot for the middleweight championship. Whittaker (20-5) returns to the octagon for the first time since losing the title to Israel Adesanya at UFC 243 back on October 5th of last year. Whittaker had won his previous nine matches before that devastating loss — so a question will be whether he has emotionally recovered from that setback. Whittaker has a nice combination of boxing and karate skills while boasting outstanding defensive tactics against opponents who want to get to the mat to wrestle. Darren Till is a former contender at the welterweight 170-lb class who surprised in his first fight at the 185-lb middleweight last November 2nd when he upset Kevin Gastelum in a split decision. Till is a good striker and a crafty kickboxer — but this is not a good matchup for him. Till lost via submission to Tyron Woodley before getting obliterated by Jorge Masvidal in a 2nd round knockout in March of 2019 which prompted his move to the higher weight class. Masvidal crushed him with aggressive blitzes which overwhelmed his countering arsenal — and Whittaker is now a bigger fighter who is more comfortable with that forward, attacking style. Frankly, Till is kind of a bizarre fighter with a limited set of tools. His attack is too often a predictable feint setting up a one-two for his left-hand as a southpaw before a finishing low-kick and a reset. He has a surprisingly low output for a fighter ranked 5th in the middleweight division. He appears to be the beneficiary of a favorable set of opponents. Gastellum and Woodley are two fighters not known for their high work rate — and he was able to physically outclass Cerrone. Gastellum is now on a three-fight losing streak so that victory in November does shine as bright. Till can suffer defensive lapses — and he is too willing to engage in rough inside exchanges. These are bad characteristics when facing “The Reaper” who has fourteen stoppages accounting for his twenty victories. Whittaker has shown himself to be hittable — but those were against savvier fighters like Adesanya (who is now 19-0 with 14 KO/TKOs and the clear class of this division) and Yoel Romero who defeated twice at UFC 213 and UFC 225. Till does not have the aggressive style of either of those fighters. Whittaker has the more diverse striking set in this fight while being faster and more powerful fighting at his more natural weight. Whittaker has only stopped once in his career against Wonderment Thompson — but that was way back in 2014 when he was fighting as a welterweight. Whittaker’s defensive prowess has improved greatly since then. Thompson also had a more varied offensive skill set that Till offers. If Till was more a ferocious attacker, then I would worry more about the emotional hangover for Whittaker after getting knocked out in the 2nd round to Adesanya. Whittaker should be the better striker which will fuel his confidence to win this fight. Our Best Bet is on Whittaker to defeat Till which Bovada prices at a -145 price.

Our Top  Bet on a prop bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on this fight to go Over 4.5 rounds which Bovada lists at a -105 price. I do look for Whittaker to start slow in this fight to re-establish his bearings after that loss to Adesanya. Till is known as a quick and confident starter — so thwarting that energy will likely be part of his game plan. In practice, Till only has won a quick knockout victory on his resume against the physically-overmatched Cerrone. Till embraced more defensive tactics in his won over Gostelum with his willingness to be pro-active in clenching when he attempted to gain inside leverage. Yet Till has seen four of his last five victories in the UFC result via a decision. Furthermore, Till has never fought into the 4th round in a UFC fight — so he will likely start this fight slow in order to keep some energy in reserve. This shapes up to be a technical kickboxing display with both fighters staying primarily on their feet. With both fighters also likely to start slow, expect this fight to last past 4 1/2 rounds. At this price, I recommend investing up to the same amount as you do for the Best Bet. I do not see Till winning this fight by a stoppage given his low activity rate. This prop bet serves as a Hedge Bet in case Till does pull this fight out via a decision — but there is a more than decent chance that Whittaker wins with the points which will see both bets win. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Deiveson Figueiredo faces Joseph Benavidez for the vacant flyweight championship tonight for UFC Fight Island 2 in Abu Dhabi. After Henry Cejudo vacated this title, these two fighters battled for the title on February 29th at UFC Fight Night 169. Figueiredo did not make the 125-lb weight for that fight — so the fight went on with Figueiredo forfeiting 20% of his cut of the purse with only Benavidez eligible to win the title. But it was Figueiredo who won the fight by TKO in the 2nd round albeit with controversy after a head butt left Benavidez bloody. Our Best Bet is on Figueiredo to win the fight which Bovada lists at a -235 price. The first question for me in handicapping this fight is if Figueiredo made weight. The rumors have been that he arrived in Abu Dhabi at 130-pounds which would make shedding five more pounds pretty easy at the weigh-in. I just watched that footage — not only did Figueiredo nail the 125-lb weigh on-the-nose but he looks muscular and fit so it seems as he will retain his physical strength edge. Figueiredo has won his last three fights with victories over Tim Elliott and Alexandre Pantoja preceding that February bout. Benavidez claims that bout changed due to that head butt which he thought was intentional — but Figueiredo dominated the first round and was ahead with punch stats when that fight ended. Frankly, Benavidez was losing the exchanges in that fight before that head butt that seemed to be a result of his ball-of-aggression style. Benavidez has been a bridesmaid for a title for over a decade — this will be his fourth attempt to finally win a UFC championship after that loss in February along with two title fight losses to Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson in 2012 and 2013. The 35-year old may be past his prime at this point of his career — and he may have absorbed too many hits to the head to handle another cavalcade of punishment. Benavidez is just 3-2 in his last five fights — and he tends to struggle against opponents who are fast strikers.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the proposition that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Figueiredo to win this fight inside the distance. Figueiredo is an accurate counter-striking who seems a very good fit to expose aggressive tactics. Figueiredo is a hard-hitter with a good chin. His 68’’ inch reach presents him with a three-inch edge over Benavidez. While being able to consistently hit the 125-lb weight will be an issue, Figueiredo could be a superstar in the flyweight division as champion with his dynamic finishing skills. He has won nine of his fights by KO/TKO with another six coming via submission. His words are of a fighter very confident that he took Benavidez’s best shot but was not hurt. He has mocked Benavidez for wilting at the sight of his own blood after that head butt while observing that he did not like getting hit in the face (sidenote: who does?). Granted, these fighter comments should be taken with a grain of salt when hyping a fight. However, it can also be difficult for a fighter to rebound after getting knocked out in his last fight. That may be where we are at with Benavidez — and a confident Figueiredo knows it. He made weight because he is ready to become a champion. Look for Figueiredo to work the body to set up a knockout strike to the chin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The UFC sees a quick turnaround from Saturday night’s UFC 251 with another event at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. The main event features featherweights Calvin Kattar take on Dan Ige with the winner moving one more big victory away from a title fight in the loaded 145-lb class. Our Best Bet is on Calvin Kattar to win this fight which Bovada lists at a -250 price. Kattar (21-4) may be the second-best fighter in the featherweight division (to Max Holloway) as the most brutal in dishing out punishment if and when his opponent gets hurt. This presents a major problem for Ige knows only one style which is to constantly move forward. Kattar may have the best hands in the division. He is a counter-striker who baits his opponents with feints before unleashing the many tools at his disposal. Kattar also has very good takedown and submission defenses. He has faced better competition than Ige with signature wins over Andre Fili at UFC 214 and Shane Burgos in UFC 220. He has also defeated featherweight division mainstays in Ricardo Lamas in UFC 238 and Jeremy Stephens in his last fight on May 9th for UFC 249 where he dominated. If styles make fights, this is a bad matchup for Ige (14-2) whose method is to give and take the violence before overwhelming his opponent. “50K” comes off a controversial split decision victory over Edson Barbosa in May where he pushed the pace to eventually get inside. But Ige is four inches shorter than Kattar with an inch shorter reach. He struggled in his octagon debut against another boxing specialist in Julio Arce at UFC 220 — and Kattar is a deadlier counterpuncher. Ige does have five victories via submission — but Kattar has lost only once by submitting and he will have to absorb tons of punishment to get into that position. Ige does not have a victory over an opponent currently ranked in the top-15 in the division so this seems like an uphill climb for him to accomplish what Stephens was not able to do against the Boston Finisher in May.

Our Long Shot Bet is that Kattar wins this fight via a decision which Bovada lists at +230. Ige is a tough fighter who has never been stopped in his professional career. Kattar is happy to stick-and-move his way to a decision victory relying on his counter-striking. Eight of his twenty-one wins have come from a decision. Katter’s edge in reach along with his nasty jab should lead him to a decision victory. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The headlining event for UFC 251 sees Kamaru Usman defend his 170-lb welterweight title against Jorge Masvidal with this fight tentatively scheduled to start at 12:10 AM ET early Sunday morning at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. Masvidal was the initially planned opponent for Usman for this event before Dana White settled on Nate Diaz — but when Diaz was diagnosed with COVID-19 last week, Masvidal was named as the replacement with just six days of notice. Our Best Bet for this fight is for Usman to earn the victory which Bovada currently lists at a -250 price. Usman (16-1) won the title last year in a decision victory over Tyron Woodley at UFC 235 and he comes off his first successful title defense on December 14th when he knocked out Colby Covington with just 50 seconds left in the 5th round at UFC 245. The Nigerian Nightmare is a physical monster who is a cardio machine. While continuing to develop into a formidable striker while being a dangerous kickboxer, Usman thrives on the mat with his outstanding MMA wrestling skills. He should grind out a victory over Masvidal. The Gamebred offers a great story with this being his first UFC title opportunity in his seventeen-year career. Masvidal (35-13) is a highly-respected fighter who has been consistently fighting top-notch fighters since 2005. He is so good that he fought Nate Diaz back on November 2nd for the newly created gimmick of the BMF belt (“Baddest Mother F****r) which he won with a 3rd round knockout. Masvidal has been thinking about this fight — and he reportedly is a workout machine — so I do not think the lack of preparation time hurts him too much (and perhaps that is mitigated by Usman having to change his tactics). But the fact that Masvidal had to drop 20 pounds in six days to make weight for this fight has to play a role — especially when facing such a strong opponent in the Nightmare. Masvidal has good takedown defensive skills — but he may not have ever faced as physical a specimen as Usman. Masvidal does have the tendency to let his opponent dictate the style and pace of the fight. If he lets Usman back him into the cage for grappling, that is not the way that Gamebred tends to win fights. Masvidal has a striking edge and probably has more weapons at his disposal — but Usman’s wrestling techniques will force him to play defense with this clinching sapping his strength. Osman has won fifteen straight fights while being a perfect 11-0 in the octagon since his first fight in the UFC in 2015. He should continue his stranglehold in this division with the win.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the prop bet that offers the most value in this fight is on this fight to last at least four complete rounds which Bovada lists at -125. Usman is not an elite finisher — he has only seven KO/TKOs on his professional resume with just one submission. The Nigerian Nightmare has won only two of his last eleven fights via KO/TKO. He is quite content to grind out a victory in this match and win via the points on the scorecard. Given the new opponent who will likely come out of the gates very aggressive, I expect Usman to be cautious early while not engaging in a striking contest but instead working to get Masvidal on the mat. At that point, he can look to slowly sap Gambred’s strength. Despite his experience, Masvidal has fewer five-round fights under his belt than Usman who has seen all five of his last five fights enter the 5th round with three going to the cards. Four of Masvidal’s last five fight losses have come from a split decision. And while Usman did win via a KO/TKO in his last fight against Covington last December, that finish did occur late in the 5th round. Since this bet is not dependent on Usman winning, it also serves as a de-facto hedge bet in case Masvidal pulls the upset (via decision or 5th round stoppage). Our Long Shot Bet for this fight with a proposition paying off at an underdog price is on Usman to win via a decision which Bovada lists at +150. This shapes up to be a tactical fight similar to the one that Usman fought against Woodley to win the title. Woodley had a striking edge in that fight but succumbed to Usman’s grappling that sapped his strength. But it is also telling that Usman was not able to finish Woodley despite the reigning champion’s declining skills. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Jose Pedraza returns to the ring for the first time since September 14th when he faces Mikel LesPierre in a catchweight fight at 143 1/2 pounds that have been agreed upon between these two fighters. Our Best Bet is on Pedraza to win this fight via a decision which Bovada lists at -275. Pedraza is a former Junior Lightweight and Lightweight champion at 130 and 135 pounds. But he has lost two of their last three fights after losing in a sluggish decision to Jose Zepeda in his first fight at the 140-lb weight class last September. Zepeda does not have the impressive resume that one would think comes from being a two-division champion. He has some fine wins on his resume but lacks a clear signature win. But he is a quality fighter with losses against two elite-level fighters in Gervonta Davis and Vasiliy Lomachencko. The 31-year old should jab his way to a clear victory. LesPierre’s resume does not come close to that of Pedraza. His only notable fight was against a Maurice Hooker who was drained to make weight at 140 pounds who still dominated almost every second of that fight. Hooker won on the scorecards on that night of March 9th, 2019 by 119-109, 120-107, and 118-109 scores. What was particularly disappointing from the LesPierre standpoint was that he should no urgency to close the distance between himself and Hooker despite his struggles to make weight giving him a great opportunity to pull the upset. LesPierre comes off an 8-round decision victory over Roody Pierre Paul on December 5th. Life may be getting in the way for this fighter who was training for a June 18th encounter with Pedraza before that fight was canceled when LesPierre’s manager tested positive for COVID-19. LesPierre works on the frontlines in New York as a data analyst at the Mt. Sinai Medical Center in Manhattan — and he went back to work for two weeks after that fight was postponed. So LesPierre may have peaked early in his training — or he may be out of his normal routine taking this fight still after having to ask for time off from his boss.

FINAL TAKE: Given LesPierre credit: he has never been knockout in his career. Pedraza is not a knockout artist either with only half of his fights ended by a KO or TKO. Pedraza appears to be losing power as he moves up in weight class. He has won only one of his last twelve fights via a KO or TKO stoppage. Pedraza should win this fight comfortably — but this fight should go the distance. Take Pedraza to win this fight via a decision. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Alex Saucedo fights Sonny Frederickson tonight in Top Rank’s next summer series event on ESPN with this bantamweight bout tentatively scheduled for 10 PM ET. Saucedo (29-1) returns to the ring for the first time since he knocked out Rod Salka in the first round last November 9th. That was his first fight since he lost his only fight in his professional career when he suffered a TKO loss in the 7th round to Maurice Hooker in a fight for the WBO Super Lightweight championship. I do have several concerns regarding Saucedo who has been pampered with mediocre competition throughout his association with Bob Arum. Saucedo has shown himself to be vulnerable — especially in that loss to Hooker. But, frankly, he was getting hit by Salka in that 1st round win. Saucedo’s defense is his offense. His form is also a question mark having just fought for less than a full round in a year and a half. Yet even with these caveats, Saucedo should defeat Fredrickson by a KO or TKO.



Fredrickson has a nice profile with his 6’1 height along with a 76-inch reach which is very appealing for a super lightweight. Yet his lack of a push despite only two professional losses may be telling of his lack of underlying talent that promoters are sensing. Fredrickson was exposed in a 3rd round TKO loss to Shohjahon Ergashev where he was unable to offer any resistance. Fredrickson won his next three fights before losing in his last fight on November 14th in a majority decision to Samuel Teah (who also has a loss to Ergashev on his resume). Fredrickson looks like a glorified club fighter. He is a weak puncher so he is unlikely to be able to take advantage of Saucedo’s suspect defensive skills. Fredrickson’s defense is also suspect. He has a low right guard. He also tends to lead with a right hook to the body which leaves his chin exposed. Saucedo has won nineteen of his fights by KO/TKO. This appears to be the next soft fight for Saucedo to rebuild him as a championship contender. Our Best Bet is for Saucedo to win this fight by a KO/TKO which Bovada currently lists at -135 odds. That is a much better price than -650 Bovada lists for Saucedo to win this fight outright. Saucedo should be able to use the playbook that Ergashev wrote to dominate Fredrickson. I am worried about ring rust — and think that makes the prop that he wins the fight in the 7th or 8th round interesting. Before that 1st round knockout, Saucedo saw his last three fights end in the 7th round with him winning two of them. In this ten-round fight, it might take Saucedo a few rounds to find his rhythm before he begins to dominate. Our Long Shot Bet is on Saucedo to win this fight in the 7th or 8th round which Bovada lists at +650. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Dustin Poirier returns to the octagon in his first fight since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov last September 7th at UFC 242. Khabib forced “the Diamond” to submit in the 3rd round. Still ranked 3rd in the UFC lightweight division, he faces Dan Hooker who is ranked 5th in this division. Our Best Bet for this fight is that it lasts Over 2.5 rounds. Poirer (25-6, one no-decision) has still seen five of his last seven fights last at least three rounds. The 31-year old has only been stopped twice in his thirty-two professional fights. The Diamond is a good defensive fighter when it comes to resisting takedowns and avoiding submissions. Poirer also has a good chin as evidenced by his nice resume of fighters he has defeated including Justin Gaethje, Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Jim Miller, and Max Holloway. Poirier’s victory over Gaethje looks particularly good right now with him lined up to be the next fighter to challenge Khabib after he destroyed Tony Ferguson last month. Hooker has not shown as much power since moving up from 145-lbs to the 155-lb light heavyweight division. Poirier usually has the reach edge in his fights — but he will be at a three-inch disadvantage against Hooker’s 75” inch reach. It may take a round or two before the Diamond finds his rhythm against Hooker.

Dan Hooker is a durable fighter with a good chin. He has only been stopped once in his last nineteen fights. The Hangman is 7-1 in his last eight fights going back to 2017 after winning a decision against Paul Felder on February 22nd. That was an impressive performance for Hooker as he demonstrated he can pull out gritty decisions in brutal fights. But Hangman faded in this fight to barely hang on to survive to get to the points. Poirier will likely be cautious early before looking to wear down Hooker. The Hangman’s last two viOur Top Overlay Bet on the proposition that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Poirier two-win inside the distance which Bovada lists at -110. Poirier is a -240 favorite to win this fight. While I like Poirier to win the fight, I would rather lower the price. Hooker was outclassed in his last loss against Edson Barboza who eventually figured the Hangman out and picked him apart. This is a major step up in class for Hooker. And Poirier is a much more dangerous fighter then Felder who almost stopped Hooker in February. For a more aggressive flyer, our Long Shot Bet is on Poirier to win via stoppage in the 5th round which Bovada lists at +1600. This Long Shot prop captures both of my sentiments that this fight lasts longer than 2.5 rounds but with Poirier winning inside the distance. If you are interested in a second betting option after the Best Bet, choose either the Top Overlay Bet or the Long Shot depending on your level of risk you want to take on. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Cynthia Calvillo is scheduled to fight Jessica Eye at 11:35 PM ET on the UFC APEX in Las Vegas tonight. Calvillo (8-1-1) will be making her first fight in the 125-lb flyweight class after ten fights in the strawweight 115-lb division. The 32-year old’s lone loss was to former strawweight champion Carla Esparza. She also comes off a unanimous draw to Marina Rodriguez in December. Calvillo is a scrappy fighter who is a tight and quick striker but her strengths are with her wrestler and jiu-jitsu skills. Yet Calvillo too often has foregone her grappling tactics instead of attempting to outbox her opponents. She has changed gyms — moving from Alpha Male to the American Kickboxing Academy so it remains to be seen if she will go back to leaning on her superior wrestling skills to attempt to secure her fourth victory via submission. But she may struggle to see her grappling techniques have as much success at the higher weight class.



Jessica Eye (15-7) is a former bantamweight fighting at 135-lbs before dropping down to the 125-lb lightweight division. Former strawweights fighting at 125-lbs against former bantamweights often struggle. Our Best Bet to win this fight is on Eye to win this fight which Bovada currently prices at +110. Eye has a two-inch height advantage over Calvillo at 5’6 — and she has a two-inch reach advantage at 66”. Eye’s career peaked when she had the opportunity to fight for the lightweight title last June against Valentina Shevchenko but she was thoroughly dominated in that fight. Eye was then slotted to face an up-and-comer in Viviane Arajvo last December who was on a five-fight winning streak — but rather than playing the role of gatekeeper for a future title contender, Eye registered a unanimous decision victory to keep herself relevant in the division. Eye is a good boxer who usually outworks her opponents in pace and pressure. Her toughness along with her size and strength advantage — along with her experience at this division — should help her seize the victory. But Eye has not won a fight by a KO/TKO or submission since 2014 — so our Top Overlay Bet on the proposition that offers the most value is on Eye to win by a 5-round decision which Bovada lists at +160. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Amanda Nunes (19-4) is tentatively scheduled to defend her Featherweight Championship around 12:10 AM ET early Sunday morning against Felicia Spencer (8-1). Nunes is the queen of MMA as a reigning two-belt champion with her also owning the Bantamweight Championship. Nunes has defeated many of the biggest names in her career in the octagon including Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, and Holly Holm. She comes off a victory via a decision last December 19th against Germaine de Randamie at UFC 245. This will be her first defense of the Featherweight title at the 145-lb weight class. Our Best Bet is for Nunes to win this fight inside the distance which Bovada lists at -175. Nunes is a huge money-line favorite to win this fight overall priced in the -600 range. That is simply too expensive. Nunes has achieved a victory inside the distance in sixteen of her nineteen wins with thirteen of them coming from a knockout or TKO. She has not lost since 2014 as she enjoys a ten-match winning streak. She has a big advantage with both her athleticism and experience in this fight over Spencer. She may be the most feared female striker in the history of the UFC with her accurate and straight punching style. She also has a solid submission game with three of her victories coming from that route. Nunes also sports a strong defensive skill set. She uses arm-stiffs to defuse clinches especially early in the fight. Spencer needs to get this fight onto the mat — but Nunes has takedown defense rate of 80%.



Felicia Spencer’s lone loss was to Cyborg in UFC 240 last July. Nunes destroyed Cyborg in a 51-second first-round knockout in December of 2018. Spencer rebounded on February 29th of this season at UFC 250 with a first-round knockout over Zarah Fairn. But Spencer’s quality of opponents is questionable in her limited professional experience. Her victory over Megan Anderson is tempered by the fact that she was dominated on the mat by Holly Holm despite wrestling not being her strong suit. And that same Anderson overwhelmed Fairn in grappling. Spencer does not lack for grit and toughness. With her Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and Taekwondo blackbelt, she wants to get this fight to the ground. But she is not a phase-shifter with her tactics which likely means she will absorb punishment. Spencer does not dodge shots as much as she bulls through them — yet she was getting pounded by a 4:1 rate against Holm in the last round of that fight. That is not an encouraging recipe for success against such a dynamic striker as Nunes. And while Nunes may be more comfortable at the Bantamweight 135-lb class, Spencer weighed 1.3 pounds below the 145-lb limit in her last fight at the 145 pounds. Spencer’s style is similar to Raquel Pennington who Nunes wore down with repeated kicks to the leg that wore her down. Even with a great chin, Spencer looks likely to succumb to Nunes’ superior striking abilities. Our Top Overlay Bet on the proposition that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Nunes win this fight via a KO/TKO. Best of luck for us — Frank.