01-20-25 |
Ohio State -8 v. Notre Dame | Top | 34-23 |
Win | 100 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: On paper, there is a talent mismatch between these two teams. Ohio State has 15 players on their roster who are graded as a five-star recruit coming out of high school. Notre Dame has only one five-star recruit— and injuries all season have diluted their ideal talent base for this ultimate game. And I remain steadfast that this Fighting Irish team reached this championship game because of a favorable schedule. In my deep dive on them in the preseason, I observed that the closest thing to a signature victory in the first two seasons under head coach Marcus Freeman was either a victory against a mediocre Clemson team two seasons ago or a win against a mediocre USC team last year. They beat another mediocre Texas A&M team to begin the season before getting upset by Northern Illinois. Granted they then went on to beat all the service academy and second-tier ACC opponents on their schedule. They beat USC again — but surrendering 360 passing yards to a former UNLV quarterback who began the season as a second-stringer raises serious doubt about the quality of their pass defense. In the playoffs, they overwhelmed an Indiana team that also benefited from a soft schedule. Then the Irish beat Georgia in what is now the top victory in the Freeman era — but that Bulldogs team did not have any first-team All-Americans in what was the least threatening roster head coach Kirby Smart has had in his tenure there perhaps ever. Georgia also had a sophomore quarterback make his first career start in that game — and yet except for a 54-second span to end the half and start the second half when Notre Dame scored 17 unanswered points, that game was even. And then in the Spiderman Social Media Meme Bowl against Penn State (I consider both programs to be mirror images of each other), somebody had to win — and the unity and cohesion that Freeman has brought to his team was just enough to overcome the Nittany Lions finding ways to lose big games under head coach James Franklin. In this instance, it was the luck of the Irish that led to Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s bad interception late in that game on a potential game-winning drive which gave Freeman’s team the ball almost already in field goal position. Sorry, I just don’t give much credit for salvaging a victory against Penn State after trying to give that game away in the fourth quarter themselves — and due to quarterback Riley Leonard throwing two interceptions, it was the first time since the upset loss to Northern Illinois when Notre Dame lost the turnover battle. Can the Irish win this game without winning the turnover battle? The Buckeyes have only five turnovers in their last six games — and two of those giveaways were against Michigan. So perhaps the deeper question is: can Notre Dame replicate the Wolverines' formula for success? These two teams are now playing each other for the third time in three straight seasons. Ohio State won at home by a 21-10 score in 2022 before pulling out a 17-14 win in South Bend last season. Three points from those games. First, the Fighting Irish scored only 24 combined points in those two games (more on that below) Second, both were played in September when Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day was still keeping his playbook limited. Third, after former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz called out Day’s team for being too soft, Day became obsessed with proving how tough he/his team was — and that dictated a run-heavy game script. Day would after the game call out the septuagenarian for daring to challenge the toughness of his group (something only insecure people feel the need to do). Day’s demons would later get the best of him this season as his obsession to prove to the world how tough his team/he is played right into Michigan’s hands in that upset loss in late November. Day was made into a laughingstock after that loss — but the playoffs are his redemption tour. If there is one thing he is not going to do in this game, it is not getting his uber-talented wide receivers involved enough. Relying on pass-first game plans in the playoffs, the Buckeyes raced out to a 21-0 first quarter lead against Tennessee, a 34-8 halftime against Oregon, and then a 7-0 lead and a 14-7 lead against the Longhorns. Notre Dame cannot afford to fall behind by more than one score because they are very limited in the passing game. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The last 16 teams to win the National Championship Game who failed to score at least 21 points have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of those games. Ohio State has scored at least 31 points in 11 of their 15 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Fighting Irish are outscoring their opponents by +22.7 Points-Per-Game — but the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. But the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games the last three seasons against teams who do not allow more than 17.0 PPG (and two of those games were against Michigan). 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-10-25 |
Ohio State v. Texas +6.5 | | 28-14 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (286) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Can Texas survive the Mike Tyson first-round fury that the explosive Ohio State offense will try to unleash early in this game? The Buckeyes floored the Ducks last week by scoring the game’s first two touchdowns and then countering Oregon’s first score with another 20 points to go into the locker room with a 34-8 lead. Longhorns’ head coach Steve Sarkisian will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field — and he shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents. Ohio State does generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry — but the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. The Buckeyes limit their opponents to 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but Texas is 12-2-1 ATS in their 15 games under Sarkisian against teams who are not allowing more than 5.9 YPA. If this game remains close at halftime, then I expect it to be a nailbiter the rest of the way as the weight of the world begins to fall on Ohio State head coach Ryan Day. In Day’s 6 games as a favorite on a neutral field with the Buckeyes, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 14 games against teams from the SEC with ten straight-up losses. Ohio State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home after beating a Big Ten rival.
FINAL TAKE: Sarkisian has an ace-in-the-hole with backup quarterback Arch Manning — and I suspect he has been sandbagging using him until a playoff moment just like this. It reminds me of when Alabama benched quarterback Jalen Hurts for Tua Tagovailoa in the National Championship Game against Georgia. Sarkisian was an offensive analyst for Nick Saban that season. Manning offers a unique threat over Quinn Ewers with his legs — and he opens up the playbook since he has a big arm that can throw wide receivers open. It is the curveball that would disrupt Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' plans. 10* CFB Ohio State-Texas ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (286) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (285). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-09-25 |
Notre Dame v. Penn State +1.5 | | 27-24 |
Loss | -105 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (284) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283) in the Orange Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Penn State (13-2) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven after their 31-14 victory against Boise State as an 11.5-point favorite in the College Football Quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve last Tuesday. Notre Dame (13-1) has won 12 games in a row after their 23-10 victory as a 1-point favorite against Georgia in their quarterfinals contest last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINT(S): I consider these two teams (and programs) to be mirror images of each other (or the Spiderman social media meme). These are two football teams that tend to be flat-track bullies against lesser competition who then get overwhelmed by the elite teams that season. The Fighting Irish pulled off their best victory by beating Georgia under head coach Marcus Freeman in his three years with the program. I don’t know what to make of that victory other than it was Notre Dame who made the big plays in a game-changing minute stretch where they kicked a late field goal in the first half before intercepting a pass deep in the Bulldogs side of the field to score a touchdown and then returned the opening kick off for another touchdown. That 17-0 swing in points decoded the game. It was a stalemate for the other 59 minutes of the game. Georgia outgained the Fighting Irish in yardage by a 296-244 margin — and they won the first down battle by a 16-14 margin. Notre Dame benefited from a +2 net turnover margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Just how impressive was this victory against a Georgia team with an inexperienced quarterback and no first-team All-Americans for the first time in years? The one clear difference between these two Spiderman programs pointing at each other is that Penn State does have more experience in these heavyweight showdown fights against elite competition. They played Ohio State and Michigan for many years in a row with "weight of the world" stakes since the loser was likely eliminated from the four-team college football playoff. They did not play the Wolverines this season — but they did face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. While they lost to both the Ducks and the Buckeyes, both losses were by one scoring possession. What are those analogous experiences for Notre Dame under Freeman? Granted, they had the Lou Holtz Bowl last year against Ohio State (when Ryan Day called out Holtz after the game in his rant about “toughness”) — marred by the 10-men on the field debacle when trying to stop the Buckeyes winning touchdown. In a game big game last season against Clemson, the Irish quacky fell behind by 18 points in last year’s big game against Clemson. The quality of Notre Dame’s competition in Freeman’s three years: (1) Ohio State last year (2) Georgia last week; (3) the other Clemson game three years ago (4) one of the mediocre USC teams (5) Indiana two weeks ago?!? (6) Navy this year? You get the point. I worry that this is the game when the smaller Fighting Irish defensive line gets exposed by a physical offensive line that the Nittany Lions possess. The season-ending injury to rugged defensive tackle Rylie Mills really hurts for this contest. Led by running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State rushed for 293 yards against Oregon. The Nittany Lions lack explosive threat from their wide receivers, but they still rank third in the nation in Pass Success Rate with quarterback Drew Allar. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava threw for 360 yards against the Notre Dame defense. Defensive end Abdul Carter may be a top-five pick in the NFL draft — and he is probably the best defensive lineman the Irish offensive line will face this season. Can the Irish win this game if it is close without getting more from their passing game? Quarterback Riley Leonard only passed for 90 yards last week -- but that 17-0 point swing in that magical minute gave the offense the security blanket they needed to survive scoring just two more field goals the rest of the way. Notre Dame lacks explosiveness from their wide receivers as well — but they lack the talent at tight end that Penn State has with Tyler Warren.
FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions have been knocking on the door for years under head coach James Franklin. I suspect Penn State is at the point where they can see “If we just do this, then we can beat Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and everyone else.” Does Notre Dame have that same level of conviction of “thinking they see it” or merely hoping/wishing that they are finally there after beating Georgia (and, if so, does that instigate a short-term letdown since they finally feel they have arrived)? And this afternoon there are reports of a flu bug in the Irish locker room. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten. With more big-game experience and with more top-level NFL talent, they find a way to finally open that door. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Penn State ESPN Special with Penn State Nittany Lions (284) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (283). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-02-25 |
Notre Dame v. Georgia +1.5 | Top | 23-10 |
Loss | -105 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273) in the Sugar Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-2) has won four games in a row after their 22-19 upset win against Texas as a 3-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 7th. Notre Dame (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 27-17 win against Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a strange Georgia team this season. None of their players were consensus All-Americans which is a first for head coach Kirby Smart in his ninth year running the program. But the roster is still stacked with blue-chip talent — and they will be the more talented team on the field today. But what this team lacks in star power this season, it makes up for in grit. The Bulldogs have won four games this season after trailing or tied in the fourth quarter. The season-ending injury to quarterback Carson Beck is a tough blow — but the team still rallied from a 6-3 halftime deficit to beat Texas with sophomore Gunner Stockton under center. The loss of Beck will certainly remove any level of complacency for the rest of the roster — everyone has to step up. And it’s not like Stockton is a bum. He is a four-star recruit who college football analyst Phil Steele listed as his second-rated quarterback in the 2023 class. He completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half against the Longhorns. He is a dual-threat so expect him to be used in the ground game. The Bulldogs may have an initial edge in this game since offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has had almost a month to develop a new game plan specific to his skillset. He will lack the vertical threat in the passing game that Beck offered — but against the Fighting Irish whose strength is their secondary, perhaps that is a blessing in disguise. Besides, it’s not as if Georgia’s blueprint for success under Smart is a gunslinging quarterback. The program that has won national championships with Stetson Bennett and reached the championship game with Jake Fromm will be just fine if Stockton is only a vanilla Jake Fromm (which, I know, is redundant). With Nick Saban retired and Jim Harbaugh back in the NFL, Smart is hands down the best coach in college football — and that starts schematically and continues with preparation and then motivation. Now let’s talk about Marcus Freeman whose biggest victory in his three seasons as Notre Dame’s head coach was when they beat the Hoosiers 12 days ago. The only team that finished in the College Football Playoff Committee’s top 25 final rankings was Army — and that was before they got upset by Navy. While I don’t blame them for Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, and Louisville not meeting preseason expectations, I don’t give them a ton of credit for beating them either. The Fighting Irish are Flat Track Bullies whose physical style of play overwhelms most of their opponents — but now they play a team that is bigger, more skilled, and who play better competition on a week-to-week basis. And now they are without their best pass rusher after defensive tackle Rylie Mills’ season-ending injury against Indiana. Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: If a college football team is playing in January, then they are likely to be big games (save for the few minor bowl games being played in the next few days). Georgia has played seven games in January under Smart — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 7 contests. Notre Dame has only played one game in January under Freeman — and they did not cover. The Bulldogs were built for this moment while the Irish are hoping they are prepared for the step up in competition. 25* CFB Playoff Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-01-25 |
Ohio State -2.5 v. Oregon | | 41-21 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (271) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (272) in the Rose Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-2) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 42-17 victory against Tennessee as a 7-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. Oregon (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 45-37 victory against Penn State as a 3-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State found new life after their demoralizing loss to Michigan by making a statement in front of their home fans and the nation in their destruction of the Volunteers. I was on the wrong side in that one with one of the biggest reasons being the vulnerability of their banged-up offensive line against an outstanding Tennessee defensive front. But inserting left guard Luke Montgomery into the starting lineup and then rotating the embattled Tegra Tshabola with previous starting left guard Austin Siereveld at right guard. That worked wonders as quarterback Will Howard was not sacked once. Credit goes to Chip Kelly who constructed a game plan that got Howard to get the ball out fast to help protect him and the offensive line. The Buckeyes have renewed momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win by 17 or more points. I think the big edge comes in the coaching staff making adjustments for this rematch of Oregon’s 32-31 victory as a 3-point underdog on October 12th. Kelly has two stints as a head coach in the NFL — and he has coached in national championship games when he was running the Oregon program. That level of experience and savvy makes a difference. And then Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is one of the best in the business. He made a great adjustment after the Oregon game by moving nickel back Jordan Hancock to a single high safety role in his Cover-1 scheme. That opened up space for super start safety Caleb Downs to play all over the field including stunts up front. Ohio State has played three teams with an offense ranked in the top 25 according to the SP+ metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Buckeyes held those three opponents to just 45 combined points. Oregon’s brain trust is simply not the same. Head coach Dan Lanning is lauded as one of the best minds in college football, but the 38-year old simply lacks experience in big games like this outside serving as Kirby Smart’s defensive coordinator at Georgia for three seasons. This is the Duck’s first playoff game under Lanning. They lost both their games against Washington last season. The win at home against Ohio State is his best win on his resume. Offensive coordinator Will Stein in his second year with the program after the 34-year old served as the offensive coordinator at UTSA. Defensive coordinator Josh Lupoi does have NFL experience along with a stint under Nick Saban as the defensive coordinator at Alabama — but he does not have the same talent level with his unit as Knowles does. The Ducks defense has regressed in the second half of the season. Penn State torched them for 518 yards of offense. They have called outside the top 50 in Contested Catches Allowed and Broken Tackles Allowed. They rank 92nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They only sacked Howard once in the first meeting. Lanning seems to realize this concern and managed games realizing he has to win shootouts with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oregon scores 35.9 Points-Per-Game and average 278.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 31 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Ohio State-Oregon ESPN Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (271) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (272). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-01-25 |
Texas -14 v. Arizona State | | 39-31 |
Loss | -105 | 0 h 4 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (269) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (270) in the Peach Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-24 victory against Clemson as a 13.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. Arizona State (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 45-19 upset win against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 7th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this spot for the Sun Devils. This was a team riding high with momentum with six straight victories that transformed their 5-2 season. Now they shake off the rust against a battle-tested Longhorns team who just played another big game 11 days ago. As it is, Arizona State is a team that was thriving off great starts. Except against Central Florida during their six-game winning streak, they raced out to a lead at the end of the first quarter by an average of +7.6 points — and they had leads of at least three touchdowns in three of those contests. Turnover luck has also played a role. They have 11 takeaways in their last six games with only two turnovers themselves — and that +9 net turnover margin leads the nation. Nothing like an extended break to wake up the Regression Gods. And this is a team that simply lacks big-game experience. Their highest-profile game was against the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game — and while they did play their best game of the season in that contest, that was more likely an outlier than a feature of coming attractions. The Big 12 is now several notches below the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma switching conferences. Arizona State’s highest-profile victory in non-conference play was a 30-23 win against a Mississippi State team that was at the bottom of the SEC. And it is this lack of experience on the biggest stages where the team cohesion of a group assembled mostly through the transfer portal plays a role. Of the 40 players for second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham who logged-in at least 100 snaps this season, only two of these players were on the roster in December of 2022 at the end of the Herm Edwards era. This team is now without their best wide receiver Jordyn Tyson due to injury — he accounted for 20% of the total yardage for this team this season. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt is a gamer who punished Iowa State’s defense when they stacked the box to slow down running back Cam Skattebo — but now he faces a much stiffer test in the Longhorns’ secondary. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game. Texas is one of the most experienced teams in the nation when it comes to dealing with high stakes like this. They have 15 starters back from the team that lost to Washington in the College Football Semifinals last season — and they are the only team in this year’s playoff to have competed in the playoffs last year. They have already been through the gauntlet of playing Georgia twice this season — and they now benefit from playing in the first round of the playoffs last week. The Longhorns offense comes into this game with renewed confidence after generating 494 yards against a good Clemson defense. Texas should start fast being comfortable in this environment — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games away from home after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State needs to keep this game close so that they can continue to rely on Skattebo. They are not equipped to keep up with the Longhorns if they have to bank on Leavitt and their passing attack — especially now without their best wide receiver Tyson. The Sun Devils generate 200.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 yards-Per-Carry. Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 20* CFB Texas-Arizona State ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (269) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (270). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-31-24 |
Penn State -10.5 v. Boise State | | 31-14 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Penn State are flat track bullies that almost always take care of business in spots like this. Head coach James Franklin minimizes unnecessary risk-taking — which gives life to underdogs if the over-aggressiveness fails — and his teams tend to not beat themselves with mistakes. Their patience eventually gets rewarded — and their superior talent eventually begins to pull away on the scoreboard. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 22 of their 30 games under Franklin when favored by 10.5 to 21 points — and all of his teams in his head coaching career going back to his previous tenure at Vanderbilt have covered the point spread in 28 of their 37 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their 41 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. I do not like this spot for Boise State. As a Group of Five program, they do not get many opportunities to play in heavyweight matchups — and they may come into this game rusty having not played in 25 days. The Nittany Lions usually play Michigan and Ohio State every season — and they got a nice 10 days off for this game so they are relatively rested. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos are shellshocked early. They lack a signature victory this season having only three power conference opponents on their schedule. They do not recruit at the same level as top-tier Big Ten or SEC programs. Sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen may have thrown 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions — but he only has nine Big-Time Throws and has committed 16 Turnover-Worthy Plays this season. It gets even worse under pressure where he has only one Big-Time Throw but eight Turnover-Worthy Plays. Now here comes the Nittany Lions loaded defensive line led by a future first-round NFL pick in defensive end Abdul Carter. I don’t put too much weight on their three-point loss at Oregon early in the season since the Ducks were still working out some early kinks with their offensive line. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight bowl games. 10* CFB Penn State-Boise State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) minus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-24-24 |
South Florida +3 v. San Jose State | | 41-39 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (223) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (224) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: South Florida (6-6) had won two games in a row before their 35-28 upset loss at Rice as a 5.5-point favorite on November 30th. San Jose State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-31 win against Stanford as a 2.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at the Clarence T.C. Ching Field in Honolulu, Hawai’i.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulls experienced an instant and incredible turnaround last season in the first year under new head coach Alex Golesh by posting a 7-6 record that culminated in a triumphant 45-0 blowout victory against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. The former Tennessee offensive coordinator installed a simple but effective up-tempo offense that ranks seventh in pace of play this season. He should have his team very motivated to close this season out with another bowl victory to secure a second-straight 7-6 campaign to help with recruiting. The Bulls do have three starters on defense in the transfer portal and not on the depth chart for this game: defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli, safety Tawfiq Byard, left guard Andrew Kilfoyl. Quarterback Byrum Brown is listed as questionable to return after being out with an injury since Week Five. He has taken part in practices — but I am still comfortable with investing in the Bulls if it is sophomore Bryce Archie under center. With Golesh as their head coach, South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. They have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games played after a bye week. Furthermore, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 4 straight games away from home when listed in the +/- 3-point range under Golesh. San Jose State faces the more significant loss of players with star wide receiver Nick Nash opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. He received 37% of the targets and 35% of the yards — so his loss is significant. Center Hudson Mesa is also opting out which leaves their porous offensive line even more suspect. The Spartans are also losing two starters on defense who entered the transfer portal: cornerbacks D.J. Harvey and Michael Dansby. First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo had a great bowl record in his 15-year tenure previously at Navy — but his teams in his head coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 8 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Perhaps it is something about the favorites in the Hawai’i Bowl getting distracted by the environment but underdogs in this bowl game have pulled off upsets and covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 incarnations of this game. 8* CFB South Florida-San Jose State ESPN Special with South Florida Bulls (223) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (224). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-21-24 |
Tennessee +7.5 v. Ohio State | | 17-42 |
Loss | -105 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (217) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (218) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 36-23 victory at Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite on November 30th. Ohio State (10-2) picks themselves off the mat after their 13-10 upset loss at home to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite on November 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Some pundits — like former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer — were claiming in August that this Buckeyes team may have the best roster in the history of college football. Cut to four months later — and while the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have significant issues at quarterback and on the offensive line. I was always a bit skeptical of Kansas State transfer Will Howard. Howard was losing reps to Avery Johnson late last year and he struggled with his deep passes in spring practice with the Buckeyes. He only completed 61% of his passes last season while throwing 10 interceptions. Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse as he became the scapegoat for the loss at Michigan last year — but there is a good argument to be had that he was and is the better quarterback over Howard. McCord ranked seventh in the nation in Total Quarterback Rating while Howard ranked 23rd in that metric. Howard completed only 19 of 33 passes against the Wolverines three weeks ago and threw two interceptions. He is not the best game manager and delivery mechanism to unlock all the dynamic talent the Buckeyes enjoy at wide receiver. Clearly, head coach Ryan Day did not trust Howard against Michigan and assumed their defense would bail them out. But the even bigger concern is with their banged-up offensive line. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury in the Oregon game. Center Seth McLaughlin, their prized transfer from Alabama, suffered a season-ending injury in November. These injuries exposed the depth and talent issues the Buckeyes have with this unit. The dirty little secret is that offensive line coach Justin Frye is not getting the job done. In his third year with the program after coming over from UCLA where he held the same position for Chip Kelly (who now is the offensive coordinator for his former pupil, Day), he is failing to develop the players he has recruited. Even worse, recruiting is down. Only one of his players, sophomore Luke Montgomery, was ranked in the top 100 players overall. The average rank of his 2024 offensive line class was 320.5 at 247 Sports Composite which is way below the other position rooms at Ohio State. Michigan registered four tackles for loss and 13 quarterback pressures against this group — and their star running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined to run for only 67 yards in that game. Not only are the Buckeyes down their top two linemen now, but there are also two weak links on the line after left guard Austin Siereveld and right guard Tegra Tshabola got exposed by Michigan. It looks like Montgomery will get his first career start tonight at left guard while Tshabola (rated the team’s worst-rated pass blocker and run blocker by Pro Football Focus) may split time with Siereveld at right guard. Maybe this is an upgrade — but cohesion and chemistry now become bigger concerns as well. This group may now have to face the best defensive line in the nation — and with a rotation that goes ten deep. James Pearce, Jr. anchors the unit — and the first-team All-SEC defensive end may be one of the top ten picks in the next NFL draft. The ability and the willingness to rotate these defensive linemen will give Tennessee a big edge late in this game. Meyer thinks the Buckeyes' game plan has to be to rely on quick passes on nearly every down to neutralize the Volunteers' huge edge at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the cold weather in the low-20s with some wind gusts up to 15 MPH will make this challenge even more difficult. Tennessee freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has an 11-2 record as a starter after winning last year’s Citrus Bowl against the stout Iowa defense by a 35-0 score — and he led the Volunteers to a win against Alabama. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. Under head coach Josh Heupel, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 19 games against teams outside the SEC. And while the Buckeyes hold their opponents to just 2.95 Yards-Per-Carry, the Vols have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 3.25 YPC.
FINAL TAKE: I certainly considered the bounce-back factor for Ohio State to get the bad taste out of their mouth after the humiliating loss to the Wolverines — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game. Even worse, in the 4 games after an upset loss in Day’s tenure, the Buckeyes failed to cover the point spread 3 times. Like the teenage boys going to spring break wearing Big Johnson t-shirts, Day seems to hope that he just mentions how tough his team is a few dozen more times (and maybe even challenge octogenarian Lou Holtz into a fight), that this will manifest toughness in his players. The toughness problem is now with his players — so I remain skeptical that he is the galvanizing leader equipped for this moment. 10* CFB Tennessee-Ohio State ABC-TV Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (217) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (218). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-20-24 |
Indiana +7 v. Notre Dame | | 17-27 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Indiana (11-1) bounced back from their loss to Ohio State with a 66-0 victory against Purdue as a 29-point favorite to conclude their regular season on November 30th. Notre Dame (11-1) rides a ten-game winning streak after their 49-35 win at USC as a 7-point favorite to complete their regular season on November 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The challenging aspect of assessing this Indiana is determining just how good they are after playing a schedule that had only two teams finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top fifty. With head coach Curt Cignetti bringing with him 13 players from his James Madison squad from last year, are these Hoosiers just a glorified, albeit talented, Group of Five opponent — or does the mix of 30 transfers onto a Power Five/Four conference roster enough to make this group a legitimate contender against the best teams in the country. I thought their 20-15 win against Michigan was impressive. While the Wolverines were held back by the lack of a quality quarterback, they were good to outstanding everywhere else on the field — and that is why they upset Ohio State in Columbus. The Michigan defense remained elite all season. If the Hoosiers lose that game, then Alabama probably takes their spot in the playoff. But Kurtis Rourke — a 24-year-old quarterback with tons of experience — led them down the field in key drives to withstand the pressure and win that game. Indiana’s 38-15 loss at Ohio State exposed some warts — but the Buckeyes’ have much more future NFL talent level than what the Fighting Irish bring to this game. Even still, the Hoosiers held the Buckeyes explosive offense to just 316 total yards — and the Buckeyes ran for just 115 yards on 29 carries. Interestingly, Indiana only trailed Ohio State by a 14-7 score going into halftime — and the combined first-half scores in both games put the Hoosiers up by a 24-17 margin. That is a reflection of how well Cignetti and his coaching staff prepared this team for those showdowns. It was in the second half that things went south with them getting outscored by a 36-11 margin in both games. But if something similar happens tonight and Indiana starts out well, then I suspect the humongous pressure that Notre Dame faces in this game begins to weigh heavily. This Fighting Irish has no claim on playing a more difficult schedule. Under head coach Marcus Freeman, they have been flat-track bullies — but I continue to wonder what the biggest win has been for this team with him as a head coach. Nine of their victories during their ten-game winning streak were by 14 or more points. Was the biggest victory in Freeman’s tenure that opening victory at Texas A&M this season. If that is not the one, then it probably prior wins against less-than-stellar Clemson or USC teams. Seriously. And there are always these bad clunkers along the way in pressure moments. After upsetting the Aggies, the Fighting Irish returned home to get upset by Northern Illinois despite being a four-touchdown favorite. They got upset as a double-digit favorite against Marshall and Stanford in his first season coaching the Irish. They laid eggs and blew their chance at the College Football Playoffs with clunkers against Louisville and Clemson last year. Even in their 49-35 win against the Trojans to end the season, they needed a 99-yard and a 100-yard interception returned for touchdowns to flip the script and pull away. USC (and former UNLV) quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 360 yards against them — and the Trojans generated 557 yards overall in the loss. I am a Riley Leonard skeptic — and the Notre Dame quarterback saw only 13% of his completions go for more than 20 yards this season, ranking 116th in the nation. The weather will contribute to a lack of explosive plays tonight. The Fighting Irish’s last two opponents ran for 197 and 207 yards against them.
FINAL TAKE: The temperature will be in the 20s in South Bend tonight with the wind chill dropping into the teens. I suspect the Hoosiers keep this a close game in the first half — and when the realization that another big upset may be brewing on Freeman’s watch, I expect things will get very tight. I give the edge at quarterback and coaching to Indiana. Cignetti will have this team ready and prepared to win — schematically and emotionally. His teams have covered the point spread in 11 of their 15 games on the road and 5 of their 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range in his career. 10* CFB Indiana-Notre Dame ABC-TV Special with Indiana Hoosiers (211) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-18-24 |
California +3.5 v. UNLV | | 13-24 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (203) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (204) in the LA Bowl. THE SITUATION: California (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-6 loss at SMU as a 12.5-point underdog on November 30th. UNLV (9-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 21-7 loss at Boise State as a 4-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal head coach Justin Wilcox was on the hot seat entering the 2023-24 season but he oversaw his team rally when their record fell to 3-6 by winning three straight games to become bowl-eligible before losing to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl by a 34-14 score. It has been a challenge this season for a team on the west coast playing many of their games on the East Coast in their first year in the ACC. But Wilcox got this group to a second straight bowl game with six wins — and now this game is an opportunity to for the Golden Bears to win their first bowl game in five seasons. There are questions at quarterback after Fernando Mendoza entered the transfer portal and backup Chandler Rogers is questionable to play after getting injured in the game against the Mustangs. Wilcox has gotten more aggressive in the transfer portal with an Admissions Office that has been more cooperative regarding their rigorous academic standards. He brought in C.J. Harris in the portal who did have some starting experience as a backup to Kurtis Rourke at Ohio. He has split reps with freshman E.J. Caminong. This game may be an opportunity for running back Jaydn Ott to re-establish himself after an underwhelming injury-riddled season. He rushed for 1305 yards last season. One of the priorities for Wilcox this season was to reverse the negative slide on the defensive side of the ball after the defense did not play up to Wilcox’s expectations last year by ranking 111th and 102nd in the nation by surrendering 32.8 Points-Per-Game and 414.1 Yards-Per-Game. This season, Cal gave up only 341.3 total YPG which resulted in 22.2 PPG. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Rebels are a program that is very much in flux after Barry Odom departed to take the Purdue head coaching job after two seasons in Las Vegas. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion will not call plays tonight after he was passed over for the head coaching job when the administration hired Dan Mullen. Wide receivers coach Del Alexander is the interim head coach for this game. It appears unlikely that wide receiver Ricky White or strong safety Jalen Catalon will play in this game since they are likely to turn to the NFL. After a flat effort in the MWC Championship Game and the disruption in their coaching staff, UNLV is a shaky favorite in this game.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points in Wilcox’s tenure. 8* CFB California-UNLV ESPN Special with the California Golden Bears (203) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (204). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-07-24 |
Clemson +3 v. SMU | Top | 34-31 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 17-14 upset loss at home against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (11-1) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is an incorrect narrative regarding this game that there is public money on Clemson simply because of their brand name. The books initially made the Tigers the favorite in this game — the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas which caters to sharp bettors and is happy to take big action made Clemson a field goal favorite in this game. It has been “sharp” money and the public that has prompted the books to move the line to where SMU is the favorite. I think the original assumptions that led to the Tigers being made the favorite are sound. The Mustangs have thrived on a weak strength of schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 63rd most difficult and that ESPN ranks as the 75th most difficult in the nation. Their best victories have been against who? Louisville? Pittsburgh. They lost to BYU. Their inaugural season in the ACC fetid a conference schedule that avoided Miami (FL), Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. And while their athletic director gets into social media scuffles regarding the strength of their resume, the players and coaching staff are under enormous pressure that a loss in this game will not just cost them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff but outside of the 12-team tournament all together (as playoff commissioner Wade Manuel confirmed as being very possible). This is a lot of pressure for any football team — especially one making their debut in a Power Five/Four conference. As it is, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. All those past games were played since Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or fewer points. I suspect that the Clemson brand is pretty toxic right now amongst bettors given their three losses, the lack of recent playoff appearances, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness to get active in the transfer portal. But this is a great rebound spot for his team that does not feel the same pressure as SMU after their loss last week to the Gamecocks — but the Tigers still make the playoffs by taking the ACC title with a win tonight. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss in the last three seasons. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game home stand. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home when playing on six days of rest between games. The Tigers still have a solid defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added Per Play Allowed — and they rank 20th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This defense is an opportunistic unit whose 23 takeaways rank as the 12th most in the nation. They rank 21st in interception rate and rank in the top ten in Havoc Rate. The Clemson offense is showing signs of getting more explosive. Freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco was targeted ten times last week — he is averaging a healthy 2.3 Yards-Per-Route-Run this season. Even in the loss to the Gamecocks they generated 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry and gained at least two first downs in six of their 12 drives. They enjoyed a Success Rate of 65% on their 54 standard downs last week. Quarterback Clint Klubnik has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions since Week 11 — and he has gotten more aggressive in moving the ball with his legs. He ran ten times for 62 yards last week and scored two touchdowns. The Tigers have been tested in games against Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home either in true road games or on neutral fields. They have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog of up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have a huge edge in coaching experience in big games with Swinney and his staff. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December which are all either ACC Championship Games, bowl games, or playoff games. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-07-24 |
Iowa State +2 v. Arizona State | Top | 19-45 |
Loss | -109 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 victory against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Iowa State has never won a Big 12 championship in the 110 years in the conference — but they have been in this position recently under head coach Matt Campbell who led them to the championship game in 2020. The Cyclones have scored 32.5 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. They rank ninth in the nation by going three-and-out on offense in only 18.9% of their possessions. Their defense ranks 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 19.6 PPG. They rank second in the country by limiting opposing passers to completing just 52.0% of their passes. They also rank 22nd in the FBS by giving up only 5.2 Yards-Per-Dropback. The Iowa State defense gets two key contributors back for this contest as well. Safety Malik Verdon returns to action after missing last week’s game due to an injury. Middle linebacker Caleb Bacon also is healthy again after being out since Week One. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 12 games on the road against Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home as an underdog. Arizona State overachieved preseason and point-spread expectations most of the season with their 10-2 ATS mark. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham did a masterful job improving the talent level of the roster in the transfer portal from last year’s 3-9 team. But there are plenty of red flags that their bubble is about to burst. The Sun Devils won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. They benefited from a +11 net turnover margin. They have covered the point spread in five straight games. They overachieved Bill Connelly’s SP+ scoring projections by +17.9 PPG in those five games. But now their top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is out the season with an injury. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss his 75 catches, 1101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. No other wide receiver has caught more than 17 passes this season — and Tyson is the only wideout with at least ten targets on third down. The Arizona State passing attack can already be a bit limited since 31% of their pass attempts are at or behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the national average of 21%. The Sun Devils defense ranks just 86th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Their defense also ranks 117th in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate Allowed. The Arizona State special teams unit ranks 131st in the nation according to Connelly’s SP+ rankings. And, finally, this is far from an ideal start time for the Sun Devils since their body clock will think it is 10 AM.
FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones thrive in the role of the underdog under Campbell as they are 36-23-3 ATS in their 62 games when getting the points in his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-06-24 |
Western Kentucky v. Jacksonville State -4 | Top | 12-52 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville State (8-4) had won eight games in a row after their 19-17 loss on the road against the Hilltoppers as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Western Kentucky (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville State had already clinched the right to host the Conference USA Championship Game before last week’s game so they had nothing at stake. They got to run the base offense and keep things vanilla while saving all their tricks for this rematch. Head coach Rich Rodriguez certainly picked up a few things about the Hilltoppers defense that he could exploit — and rather than take advantage of that knowledge last week in key situations, all those plays remain uncorked for tonight’s game. Even given that, the Gamecocks generated 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which was more than Western Kentucky’s 5.1 YPP mark. Jacksonville State’s offense was only on the field for 23:23 minutes of that game which explains why they got outgained in raw yardage. The Gamecocks only converted 2 of their 13 third down attempts — and they failed to convert on five of their six attempts on third down with six yards or less to go. Look for Jacksonville State to be better on third down tonight — especially against this Hilltoppers defense that ranks 111th in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed. The Gamecocks are a run-first offense that runs the ball on 66% of their snaps while playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the nation to wear down opposing defenses. This approach was effective last week as they generated 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry for 229 rushing yards. Western Kentucky allows 208.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 YPC — and they rank 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Jacksonville State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams who allow 200 or more rushing YPG. Gamecocks’ quarterback Tyler Huff is questionable tonight after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. I don’t know if Rodriguez was just cautious with him or if he really may not play tonight — he is a game-time decision. We have to assume he does not play (or his mobility is not 100%) and be pleasantly surprised if he can go and be effective. His backup is Logan Smothers who is a former blue-chip recruit who transferred in from Nebraska. He is in the second-year in this program and split time as the starting quarterback despite battling injuries and Rodriguez playing the hot hand. Smothers is not as dynamic a runner as Huff although he did rush for 32 yards with a touchdown on five carries last week — but he may offer more in the passing game. Rodriguez has plenty of running backs in his zone-read spread offensive attack. Jacksonville State generates 461.0 YPG when playing at home which is resulting in 37.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +14.2 PPG and outgaining them by +99.3 net YPG. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Western Kentucky had to win last week to get this opportunity to win the conference championship — so they had to deploy their best offensive and defensive looks. Running back Elijah Young ran the ball 19 times which was the third-highest mark for him all season and just the fifth time all year he ran the ball at least 15 times. Despite having their offense on the field for over 36 minutes, they still needed a 21-yard field goal to win the game with three seconds left. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw the ball 47 times for 301 yards but only averaged 6.4 Yards-Per-Completion. Now with a week to study that game tape along with the weather dropping into the 20s tonight in Jacksonville, Alabama, it will be more difficult for the Hilltoppers to move the ball in the air. As it is, Western Kentucky has struggled on offense lately as they have only generated 336.3 total YPG in their last three games for 15.7 PPG which is more than 50 YPG and 11.0 PPG below their season averages. On the road, the Hilltoppers are getting outscored by -3.8 PPG and getting outgained by -81.0 PPG. Their defense on the road is the problem as they are allowing their home hosts to gain 468.2 YPG which is resulting in 30.8 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Revenge is not a huge factor in these Conference Championship Games as teams looking to avenge a same-season loss are a flat 27-27 ATS since 2005 in those situations. But, it is telling that 36 of those 54 teams motivated by revenge improved their game score by +7.7 PPG in those contests. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season while the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the second half of the season — and those trends suggests that Rodriguez and his staff do a better job with adjustments than Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton and his staff. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-30-24 |
Oklahoma v. LSU -6 | Top | 17-37 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). THE SITUATION: LSU (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 24-17 win against Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-3 upset win at home against Alabama as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU dominated the Commodores in yardage last week by generating 471 yards of offense and outgaining them by +163 net yards. Now with head coach Brian Kelly facing heavy scrutiny from the fan base from an underwhelming season, expect a big effort from his players on Senior Day. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after winning at home in their last game. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. Playing in the Death Valley is always tough — especially in night games. The Tigers are 5-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +8.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +103.2 net Yards-Per-Game. LSU generates 455.7 total YPG at home which results in 31.0 PPG. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is poised for a big game after completing 28 of 37 passes for 332 yards last week against Vanderbilt. He is averaging over 300 passing YPG with 23 touchdown passes. He faces a Sooners defense that ranks just 53rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — but that probably might just encourage the Tigers to not rely on their ground game that ranks last in the SEC by averaging only 117.6 rushing YPG. The Sooners only gained 325 yards last week against the Crimson Tide — but they dominated the time of possession by running the ball for 257 yards. Quarterback Jackson Arnold ran the ball 25 times himself for 131 yards — but he may now be fatigued this week after that effort. That game was the first time all season where he averaged more than 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arnold only passed 11 times in that game for 68 passing yards. The Oklahoma offense is too one-dimensional with poor pass protection and injuries at the wide receiver position. The Sooners looked primed for an emotional letdown tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win against a conference opponent. They go back on the road where they are just 1-4 this season with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only generating 278.5 total YPG away from home which is resulting in a mere 16.8 PPG. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road in November. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Kelly’s teams throughout his coaching tenure are 28-11-3 ATS in 42 games played at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-29-24 |
Stanford v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 31-34 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-5) has lost two games in a row and three of their last four contests after their 27-16 loss to UNLV as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 24-21 loss at California as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has played the top two teams in the Mountain West Conference the last two weeks — and they held leads late in the third quarter before fading late against superior rosters. Against a Boise State team currently ranked fourth in the College Football Playoff, they held a 21-14 lead midway through the third quarter before giving up the final four touchdowns in that game. Last week, the Spartans rebounded to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter before the Rebels scored the final two touchdowns in that contest. Quarterback Walker Egget had an ugly boxscore with just four completions in 22 pass attempts for San Jose State — but the wet and sloppy conditions should get much of the blame for those rough numbers. Eggett has one of the best weapons in the nation with wide receiver Nick Nash. It has been a successful first season under former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo despite a challenging conference schedule. They are outscoring their opponents by +0.9 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +14.5 net Yards-Per-Game. At home, they are outscoring their opponents by +3.5 PPG and outgaining them by +35.7 net YPG. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points — and Niumatalolo’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 home games in his career when favored by up to seven points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter last week and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. But the strides made this season have been disappointing. They only have two wins against FBS teams with their third victory being against Cal Poly Slo. They are getting outscored by -12.5 PPG and outgained by -93.1 net YPG. Returning starting quarterback Ashton Daniels is completing only 62% of his passes with only nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Last year’s defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG — and despite 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps back for the second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April, they are still surrendering 412.3 total YPG which has resulted in 39.3 PPG. The Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss to a conference opponent. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Stanford only scores 19.2 PPG on the road — and their home hosts are generation 429.0 total YPG against them resulting in 39.2 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they are giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They rank 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. The Cardinal offense has not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they have failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They convert on just 34% of their third downs. They rank 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss. The Spartans rank 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss. San Jose State ranks eighth in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Opposing Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation may be an issue for the Cardinal on the road against a Group of Five opponent in this lost season. The Spartans would love to knock off their FBS geographical rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Blowout Game of the Month with the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-23-24 |
Cincinnati v. Kansas State -7.5 | | 15-41 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (194) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (193). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (7-3) has lost two games in a row after their 24-14 upset loss at home against Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (5-5) has lost three games in a row after their 34-17 loss at Iowa State as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas State outgained the Sun Devils last week by +14 net yards but could not overcome a -2 net turnover margin. They return home for Senior Day — and they still have an outside shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game after Colorado and BYU lost this afternoon. As it is, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. They are still outscoring their guests by +15.6 Points-Per-Game when playing at home by holding these visitors to just 16.8 PPG. Led by quarterback Avery Johnson, they are generating 458.4 total YPG at home which is resulting in 31.4 PPG. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to conference rivals. The Bearcats rank 42nd in the nation by averaging 182.2 rushing YPG — but now they face a Wildcats defense that ranks second in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 13th in the FBS in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Cincinnati is getting outgained on the road by -19.0 net YPG and outscored by -2.8 PPG. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after the first month of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas State Wildcats (194) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (193). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-23-24 |
Army +14 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 |
Loss | -109 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). THE SITUATION: Army (9-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 14-3 victory at North Texas as a 6.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 9th. Notre Dame (9-1) has won eight straight games after their 35-14 win against Virginia as a 21-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a very dangerous game for the Fighting Irish. With an upset loss already on their resume against Northern Illinois, a second upset loss tonight could very well ruin their playoff aspirations. They are currently ranked eighth in the playoff rankings — but they do not have a victory against a team in the 12-team field. Their most impressive victory was their opening game win at Texas A&M. Their next best wins were against who, Georgia Tech? Louisville? They did crush Navy a month ago — but they also benefited from six takeaways that completely took the Midshipmen out of their preferred game script. Notre Dame enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win against the Cavaliers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games away from home in November. I don’t love it when teams play a service academy team without the benefit of an extra bye week to prepare for their unique spread option attacks. Certainly, it helps that they already prepared for and then played Navy — but Army head coach Jeff Monken will study that game tape to tweak and adjust his offensive schemes with his specific flexbone attack for this game. The Black Knights run five core plays — zone dive, follow, midline triple option, rocket and kick — and while opponents know what is coming, Monken is able to use misdirection and varying blocking concepts to throw these opposing defenses off. There is a reason that Army has covered the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. The Black Knights lead the nation in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards — so their prowess with their ground game is not simply that they run the ball a majority of the time to rack up big yardage numbers. Running back Kanye Udoh generates +3.4 yards after the first contact this season. Quarterback Bryson Daily missed the Air Force game to an undisclosed injury — but he is back and should be back to full strength coming off the bye week. He is effective with play-action passes. While Army is unbeaten, I think all the pressure is on the Fighting Irish. The Black Knights are not in the current playoff bracket given their underwhelming strength of schedule — but pulling off the upset tonight may be exactly what they need to elevate into the top-12. Army has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They rank 25th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Irish are just 91st in Pass Success Rate on Passing Downs. And while Notre Dame leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed, that elite skillset is neutralized by a run-heavy team like the Black Knights. The Fighting Irish are giving up only 11.4 Points-Per-Game — but Army has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not allowing more than 17 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games away from home after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games away from home as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. The Black Knights slow the game down by averaging more than 33 seconds per play which limits their opponent’s possessions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field with the Total set from 42.5-49/b>.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not play at a fast pace either — and that makes all these points with the underdog even more valuable. Service Academies are 44-26-2 ATS in their last 72 games as an underdog of +14.5 or more points. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-16-24 |
Kansas +2.5 v. BYU | | 17-13 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). THE SITUATION: Kansas (2-6) has won two of their last three games after their 45-36 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (9-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 22-21 victory at Utah as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas generated 532 yards against the Cyclones last week and outgained them by +71 net yards. They are playing much better over their last three games as they seem to have clearly benefited from their bye week that preceded this run. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is playing much better after some inconsistent play early on when he might have been less than 100% health-wise. He completed 12 of 24 passes for 295 yards with two touchdown passes last week — and he added 68 rushing yards with another touchdown with his legs. The Jayhawks should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 31 or more points in their last game. They have played six straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after playing three or more Overs in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. BYU’s good fortunes continued last week as they survived a potential game-ending sack with a defensive holding penalty on fourth down which kept their final drive alive. We were on the Utes last week so fortunately they still covered the field goal point spread. The Cougars got outgained by -80 net yards but benefited from a +3 net turnover margin. But BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Cougars have been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a now +10 net turnover margin. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net Points-Per-Game, Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-16-24 |
James Madison v. Old Dominion +2.5 | Top | 35-32 |
Loss | -104 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (4-5) had won three games in a row before a 28-20 upset loss at Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 2nd. James Madison (7-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-7 win against Georgia State as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: Old Dominion outgained the Mountaineers two weeks ago by +102 net yards after generating 498 yards against them. A -3 net turnover margin was too much to overcome. The result was the Monarchs’ fourth loss by one scoring possession this season including an impressive four-point loss at South Carolina in August to open their season. With an extra week to prepare, they should be ready to pull the upset this afternoon. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enduring a net turnover margin of -2 or worse in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games coming off their bye week. The Monarchs have been much more explosive on offense since dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph took over under center in October. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 332 yards with two touchdown passes (and an interception) against Appalachian State — and he added an additional 42 rushing yards. Old Dominion is generating 378.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.4. Points-Per-Game this season — but in their last five games since Joseph took over as the starter, they are averaging 437.0 total YPG which is producing 29.8 PPG. The Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. James Madison has registered two straight wins against two bad teams in Southern Mississippi and Georgia State in their last two games. They caught the Panthers last week at the tail end of a rare four-game road swing which was pretty fortunate. This team has been catching breaks all season as they lead the nation with a +18 net turnover margin. Averaging a +2 net turnover margin per game is simply not sustainable — so I am expecting the Regression Gods to make their presence known sooner rather than later. As it is, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Alonza Barrett has 21 touchdown passes and only three interceptions this season — but most of that production came earlier in the season when he registered 11 Big-Time throws and only three turnover-worthy plays in his first four games. In his last five games against Sun Belt opponents, Barrett has only six Big-Time throws with six turnover-worthy plays. The Dukes rank just 91st in Pass Success Rate so they may hope to get most of their yards on the ground — but Old Dominion ranks 23rd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. James Madison has only scored 33 combined points in their two conference games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Dukes are outscoring their opponents by +18.9 PPG — but the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Ricky Rahne, the Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 22 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 21 games as an underdog in Sun Belt Conference play with ten outright upset victories. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-09-24 |
BYU v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 22-21 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-4) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 4.5-point favorite back two weeks ago on October 26th. BYU (8-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 37-24 upset win at Central Florida as a 3-point underdog on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: After winning their first four games this season, injuries have played a role in them losing four games in a row — but their last three losses to Arizona State, TCU, and then the Cougars were all by one scoring possession. The Utes did outgain Houston by +17 net yards by holding them to just 289 yards of offense. Utah still has an outstanding defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are holding their opponents to 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 16.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank seventh in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 11th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Additionally, they rank sixth in Finishing Drives Allowed — and they rank second in 3rd Down Defense. The problem has been the offense with quarterback Cam Rising once again out of the season with injuries. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig stepped down a few weeks ago — so interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has used the extra week to adjust the offense to the skillsets of either Isaac Wilson or freshman Brandon Rose. In Whittingham, I trust, to right the ship this week. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games with an extra week to prepare under Whittingham. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. BYU has been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a +7 net turnover margin. They have also converted on 15 of their 18 fourth down attempts. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out — and it could get ugly for the Cougars when it happens. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 18 touchdown passes — but he has not registered a “Big Time Throw” all season and has seven turnover-worthy plays. The Cougars have an excellent pass defense that ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — but that is not the strength of this Utes team. Utah wants to run the football — and BYU ranks just 84th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 87th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Utes have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams who are not allowing more than 5.75 YPA. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams not giving up more than 310 YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Whittingham will have his team ready to play in the Holy War with the motivation to ruin BYU’s perfect season. Utah has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games as an underdog getting four or more points under Whittingham. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-02-24 |
Pittsburgh v. SMU -7 | | 25-48 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-1) has won five games in a row after their 28-27 victory in overtime at Duke as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 41-13 win against Syracuse as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: SMU endured a brutal -6 net turnover margin against the Blue Devils last week — but they still won that game because they won the yardage battle by +76 yards. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after beating a conference rival. SMU was very active in the transfer portal two off-seasons ago with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. It was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC and they have won their first four games in the conference this season. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after the first month of the season. Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 net turnover margin last week — and that helped them overcome only gaining 217 yards in that contest and losing the yardage battle -110 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog — and SMU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-02-24 |
USC v. Washington +2.5 | | 21-26 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-17 loss at Indiana as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. USC (4-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 42-20 win at home against Rutgers as a 14-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington fell behind early in Bloomington last week when Will Rogers threw an interception that the Hoosiers returned for a 67-yard touchdown. The Huskies won the yardage battle by +6 net yards while holding the explosive Indiana offense to just 312 yards. Washington leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Huskies return home for a critical game for bowl eligibility with tough assignments still looming at Oregon and at Penn State. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Despite their record, the Huskies have a powerful and balanced offensive attack. They rank eighth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. They also rank 15th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate and eighth in Line Yards. Running back Jonah Coleman is generating 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He should generate plenty of yards against a Trojans defense that ranks 59th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 61st in Line Yards Allowed. USC only ranks 78th in Havoc Rate as well — so Rogers should also have a good game. USC will be playing for the seventh straight week with their bye coming up next week — and they have traveled to Michigan and Maryland during that stretch. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating a conference rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 10 road games when favored in head coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure. USC has lost all three of their games this season as a road favorite.
FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Jedd Fisch has had plenty of success in situations like this. His teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games at home as an underdog including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home getting up to seven points. Fisch’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-26-24 |
Kansas v. Kansas State -9.5 | | 27-29 |
Loss | -109 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/26:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Kansas State minus the points versus Kansas. Kansas State (6-1) has won three games in a row after a 45-18 victory at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 42-14 victory at home against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The Jayhawks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Take Kansas State minus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month last night with Chicago’s UPSET WIN against Milwaukee! Frank is on a 5 of 8 (63%) College Football run to continue his 8 of 13 (62%) CFB winning mark — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT! |
10-26-24 |
Auburn v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 24-10 |
Loss | -109 | 1 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (3-4) has lost two games in a row after their 48-20 upset loss at Florida as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Auburn (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 21-17 loss at Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Kentucky got upset at home to what looks like a pretty good Vanderbilt team two weeks ago — and they laid an egg last week by getting upset for the second straight week at Florida against the Gators. Look for head coach Mark Stoops to right the ship tonight. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting upset by an SEC rival in the Stoops era. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after getting beat in their last contest. Kentucky has been inconsistent with bad losses like last week — but remember that this group has also upset Ole Miss this season and lost by only one point at home to Georgia. Their defense is the best unit on the field in this one — they are holding their opponents to just 283.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored by up to seven points. They are outscoring their opponents by +6.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are outgaining their guests by +87.6 net YPG. Kentucky is very tough to move the ball on when they are playing at home — they are limiting their visitors to just 231.2 total YPG resulting in 14.0 PPG. This is a good matchup for the Wildcats. Led by running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, they rank 13th in Rushing Success Rate. Quarterback Brock Vandergriff has been inconsistent — but he has been effective in play-action with the Wildcats ranking 21st in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Tigers rank 44th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games. Auburn is a mess after losing for their fourth game in a row. Their victory against New Mexico last month represents their only win against a team from the FBS. Second-year head coach Hugh Freeze is at risk of getting fired — he replaced a head coach who was let go in his second season. The vibes aren’t good. The Tigers blew a 17-6 lead entering the fourth quarter to Missouri — and they also blew a 21-10 fourth quarter lead against Oklahoma. These problems speak to a lack of team confidence and chemistry with the players making too many mistakes down the stretch. Quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown six interceptions. Auburn wants to run the ball behind running ball Jarquez Hunter -- but he will face one of the best defensive fronts in the FBS tonight. Kentucky ranks 17th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also rank 16th in Havoc Rate — and that spells trouble for the mistake-ridden Tigers team that ranks 103rd in Havoc Rate Allowed. To compound matters, Auburn is playing their third straight game away from home.
FINAL TAKE: This is simply a bad matchup for the Tigers who struggle against stout defenses that thrive in stopping the run. The Wildcats are giving up only 105.7 rushing YPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams not giving up more than 120 rushing yards per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents like this. Lastly, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who do not give up more than 310 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against opponents like this. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-19-24 |
Kansas State v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 45-18 |
Loss | -115 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 28-16 loss at home to Iowa State as a 3-point underdog. Kansas State (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 31-28 victory at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia’s three losses are all against ranked teams — Penn State, Pittsburgh, and the Cyclones last week — who all remained undefeated so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by +4.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +50.7 net Yards-Per-Game given a powerful offense that generates 428.5 YPG. The Mountaineers have a Thunder and Lightning backfield of Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, Jr. along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene who rushed for 87 yards on ten carries last week against Iowa State. They rank 24th in the nation in Rush Success Rate. West Virginia should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Big 12 rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State won a thriller on the road against the Buffaloes last week — but they have failed to cover the point spreads in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win against a Big 12 opponent. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Quarterback Avery Johnson can be inconsistent — especially on the road. In their 38-9 loss at BYU, Johnson threw two interceptions and only averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Wildcats are also vulnerable with their pass defense as they rank 104th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed while giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has their in-state rivalry game against Kansas on deck next week — so they may be looking ahead. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Month is with the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-12-24 |
Boise State v. Hawaii +21 | | 28-7 |
Push | 0 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-24 loss at San Diego State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (4-1) has won three games in a row after their loss to Oregon with their 62-30 victory as a 28-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i could be 4-1 with just a couple of breaks. Against both UCLA and then the Aztecs last week, they blew fourth quarter leads in eventual losses by three-point losses. They outgained San Diego State last week by +27 net yards. Quarterback Brayden Schager has seen his wide receivers drop 18 passes which is the most in the FBS. The Rainbow Warriors are a pretty good football team that is being lifted up by a surprisingly stout defense. Hawai’i ranks 12th in the nation Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank 14th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. Against FBS opponents, they are allowing just 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which ranks in the top 60 in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 309.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring their opponents by +5.2 PPG and outgaining them by +50.8 net YPG. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games off a win by 17 or more points. The Broncos are lead by running back Ashton Jeanty who is a leading early candidate to win the Heisman Trophy — but they are vulnerable on defense. The Aggies gained 507 yards against them including 371 yards in the air from a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia Southern scored 45 points against them. They rank 106 in Pass Success Rate Allowed and outside the top 100 in Expected Points Allowed per Opponent Pass Attempt. They rank 92nd in Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 82nd in Finishing Drives Allowed — and the Rainbow Warriors rank a solid 40th in Finishing Drives. Overall, Boise State is surrendering 402.6 YPG which is resulting in 30.0 PPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. Led by Jeanty, the Boise State offense is explosive — but he did not play in the second half last week after getting rested in the second half earlier in the year against Portland State. With a big showdown with UNLV on deck, Jeanty is not likely to play if the Broncos are cruising — and that should set up, at worst, a decent back door cover opportunity when considering the state of the Boise State defense.
FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Tommy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents with two outright upset victories. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout is with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-12-24 |
Ole Miss v. LSU +4 | | 26-29 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). THE SITUATION: LSU (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-10 victory against South Alabama as a 21-point favorite back on September 28th. Mississippi (5-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to win at South Carolina by a 27-3 score as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU has the benefit of the extra week to rest and prepare for this game. Head coach Brian Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 23 games with the benefit of the bye week. The Tigers offense is transitioning to a new run blocking scheme which will play to the strengths of freshman Caden Durham who is emerging as the team’s best running back. He rushed for 128 yards on just seven carries against the Jaguars two weeks ago. A more effective rushing attack will only help quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the passing game. He is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is completing over 50% of his passes of ten or more air yards. As it is, LSU ranks fifth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — including Ole Miss’ 55-49 upset win at home as a 2.5-point underdog on September 30th last season. LSU has won 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a loss to their opponent. 10* CFB Ole Miss-USC ABC-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-12-24 |
Florida v. Tennessee -14 | | 17-23 |
Loss | -109 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-1) lost their first game of the season last Saturday in a 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas as a 14-point favorite. Florida (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-13 upset victory against Central Florida as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Much of the shine has been taken off this Tennessee team after their supposed high-powered offense only managed to score 39 combined points in their last two games after putting up 191 combined points in their first three contests. But their last two games have been on the road against two of the better defenses in the nation against Oklahoma and Arkansas last week. Those are tough assignments for any quarterback — but especially for a freshman QB like Nico Iamaleava playing in hostile environments for the first time. Returning home should help the talented rookie where he has completed 32 of 44 passes (72.7%) with four touchdown passes, no interceptions, just one sack, and an 11.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. On the road, he has completed 46 of 73 passes (63.0%) with three touchdown passes but two interceptions and seven sacks along with a 7.7 YPA average. Now Iamaleava gets to throw against a suspect Gators 'defense that ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. This is a nice get-right game for the Volunteers who have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Tennessee was probably a bit overrated after their first three games at home — but this team is different under head coach Josh Heupel because they are finally legit on the defensive side of the football. The Volunteers are one of five teams in the nation holding their opponents to single digits with the 9.4 Points-Per-Game they are allowing. They rank second in the FBS by giving up just 227.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The tempo-free analytics are also quite good for this defense. They lead the nation in Rush Success Rate Allowed. They rank second in Finishing Drives Allowed. They rank sixth in Havoc Rate. They rank 36th in Pass Success Rate Allowed — and while that is still pretty, pretty good, Florida is probably not the team to take advantage of this relative weakness. Florida does rank 20th in Pass Success Rate — but their embattled head coach Billy Napier is now rotating quarterbacks Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway. Napier looked like he was about to get fired this month before Mississippi State and Central Florida popped up on the schedule. Both of those teams are struggling (especially the Bulldogs) — and that does place a grain or two of salt on their recent passing numbers. I worry about quarterbacks finding their rhythm when they are getting rotated in and out. As it is, the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. Florida has a good pass rush — but their defense gets burned if the rush fails. The Gators rank outside the top 100 teams in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating, Rush Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Third Down Rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home as a favorite. 20* CFB Florida-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-05-24 |
Miami-FL v. California +10.5 | | 39-38 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). THE SITUATION: California (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 14-9 loss at Florida State as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 21st. Miami (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-34 win against Virginia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal was dealing with a bevy of injuries to begin the season — but they still upset Auburn on the road despite those issues. They are getting healthier now coming off the bye week. As it is, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games off a loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing on the road in their last game. Cal has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as a double-digit underdog under head coach Justin Wilcox. Miami trailed by a 34-24 score in the fourth quarter to the Hokies before rallying to win that game with a final touchdown with less than two minutes in the game. That Virginia Tech team entered the week with a losing record. The Hurricanes' strength of schedule does not look nearly as formidable from the view of the rearview mirror. Florida is a mess. South Florida has a losing record. Florida A&M and Ball State were easy ones. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win against an ACC rival. Fast starts are not uncommon for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games between Week Five and Week Nine of the season. Furthermore, head coach Mario Cristobal’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games played in October.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +35.4 Points-Per-Game, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-28-24 |
Georgia -1 v. Alabama | | 34-41 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). THE SITUATION: Georgia (3-0) has had two weeks off to recover and prepare for this showdown after their 13-12 win at Kentucky as a 21.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Alabama (3-0) comes off their bye week as well after a 42-10 win at Wisconsin as a 14-point favorite on September 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia struggled on the road against the Wildcats two weeks ago — but I think that speaks to their early season injuries and the challenge of playing on the road in the SEC. Remember that the most impressive victory either of these teams has registered this season was the Bulldogs’ 34-3 victory against Clemson who have since dominated their opponents. While Georgia is not at full strength, they are getting healthier — and the headline is their star defensive tackle Warren Brinson is expected to return to action after playing only three snaps against Clemson this season. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games with two or more weeks to prepare under head coach Kirby Smart. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Crimson Tide dominated Wisconsin on the road -- and they benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that contest. But first-year head coach Kalen DeBour’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. I am not giving DeBour an immediate benefit of the doubt when it comes to continuing the legacy of Nick Saban with this program. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in Weeks Five through Nine. Alabama remains very talented — although DeBour had to lean on the transfer portal, so the issue of their new culture remains a question. This ain’t Saban’s team anymore. This Crimson Tide team has issues on the offensive line and at cornerback.
FINAL TAKE: This game is crucial for the Bulldogs after their 27-24 upset loss as a 5.5-point favorite to Saban’s Alabama team in the SEC Championship Game cost them the opportunity to compete in the College Football Playoff. The revenge angle is huge — and Smart’s teams at Georgia have covered the point spread in 31 of their 47 games against ranked opponents including covering the point spread in 25 of those 37 games when favored. Smart’s coaching staff and culture are proven in games like this — and while the Crimson Tide may want it, the Bulldogs need it. 10* CFB Georgia-Alabama ABC-TV Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (201) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (202). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-28-24 |
BYU v. Baylor -3 | Top | 34-28 |
Loss | -109 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). THE SITUATION: Baylor (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-31 loss at Colorado in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (4-0) remained unbeaten after their 38-9 upset win at home against Kansas State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has been fortunate to remain unscathed this season — but this is the spot where they should be exposed by an angry Baylor team. BYU opened their season with an easy one against Southern Illinois from the FCS. They then played on the road against an SMU team that is already on their second quarterback and who were the beneficiaries of five TCU giveaways in their upset victory against them before disposing of one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far in a Wyoming team struggling to move on in the post-Craig Bohl era. And then last week, the Cougars survived getting outgained by a 367 to 241 margin in yardage to stun the Wildcats. Some fluky plays changed the tenor of that game. Trailing by a 6-3 score, BYU scooped up a Kansas State fumble to score a 30-yard defensive touchdown with 1:08 left in the half. They immediately were then given a short field by the Wildcats and scored another touchdown with 0:29 left to take a 17-6 lead. They then scored on a 90-yard punt return for a touchdown early in the third quarter to take control of the game with a 24-6 lead. If that was not enough, the Cougars were gifted another 50 yards on eight Kansas State penalties. I am not letting a deceiving final score last week sway me from my preseason thoughts on this team. After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule going into last season. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12. Now they play their second traditional Power Five/Four program in the Bears who will challenge them on both lines of scrimmage. As it is, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing during those weeks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown nine touchdown passes with only three interceptions — but those numbers look much better than his only five “big time” throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Now he faces his toughest defense this season with this Baylor team that is holding their opponents to just 283.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 16.8 Points-Per-Game. This Bears defense has significantly improved with head coach Dave Aranda taking over the play-calling duties. They rank 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Baylor was a prime candidate to rebound from their 3-9 campaign last season with 19 returning starters from that very young team. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road against the Buffaloes after they missed a late game-sealing field goal which created the opportunity for quarterback Shadeur Sanders to complete a 43-yard Hail Mary pass to force overtime on the final play in regulation. A botched fumble on the one-yard line in overtime led to them losing the game. If there was a silver lining, it was the play of junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson who completed 11 of 21 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns while adding another touchdown and 82 yards on the ground. The former Mississippi State transfer is a better fit to execute the quick passing game Baylor wants to deploy than previous starter Dequan Finn who may lack the requisite passing skills after transferring from Toledo. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 37 or more points. And in their last 16 games at home as the favorite, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-21-24 |
Toledo v. Western Kentucky +2.5 | | 21-26 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Western Kentucky (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 49-21 victory at Middle Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (3-0) continued their unbeaten season last week with their 41-17 upset victory at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky generated 631 yards of offense to overwhelm the Blue Raiders. Junior quarterback T.J. Finley got injured in that game — but that opens up space for redshirt sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp to run the offense after being the hero for the team in last year’s Famous Toastery Bowl. Veltkamp completed 27 of 30 passes last week for 398 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played in September. Toledo dominated what turned out to be a hapless Bulldogs team (mental note: lesson learned) last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. And in their last 6 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. This is a tough situational spot for the Rockets. Not only are they playing their second straight game on the road against a non-conference, but they have their revenge opportunity next week against Miami (OH) who beat them in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game last season. Quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for 285 yards last week — but he has yet to register a pass that qualifies as a “Big Time Throw” by Pro Football Focus this season. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in September.
FINAL TAKE: In their 21 games under head coach Tyson Helton as a single-digit favorite, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 16 of those contests by an average of +5.4 points versus the spread. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (410) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (409). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-21-24 |
Arizona State v. Texas Tech -4 | | 22-30 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (2-1) rebounded from their 21-point loss at Washington State two weeks ago with a 66-21 throttling of North Texas as an 11-point home favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (3-0) remained unbeaten so far this season with their 31-28 upset win at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech dominated the Mean Green last week by generating 586 yards of offense and outgaining them by +233 net yards. One of the touchdowns they allowed was from a 44-yard interception by the North Texas defense. That pick-six came from backup quarterback Cameran Brown. Junior quarterback Behren Morton is a two-year starter leading this offense who has already thrown for 973 yards in three games with 10 touchdown passes. He completed 15 of 19 passes last week for 273 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The final score in the loss on the road to the Cougars two weeks ago was a bit deceptive since they won the yardage battle by +75 net yards. A -3 net turnover margin played a big role in that setback as well as fourth down proficiency. Texas Tech failed to convert in four of their five fourth down attempts in that game while Washington State was successful on two of their three fourth down attempts to help swing the game in their favor. The Red Raiders have been banged up this season. Running back Tahj Brooks did not suit up against the Cougars — and they lost four starters to injury during that game including the entire left side of the offensive line. Brooks returned last week to rush for 109 yards with a touchdown. While not back to 100%, Texas Tech is getting back injured players on both sides of the ball. Arizona State survived the Bobcats last week despite getting outgained by -53 net yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have a +6 net turnover margin so far this season. The Sun Devils have scored three defensive touchdowns this year — and they have converted on five of their six fourth down attempts. Now Arizona State stays on the road for the second straight week — and they may be due for an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign last year, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has been their starting quarterback this season. While he offers a dual threat with his legs, he ranks 107th in the nation in Expected Points Added per dropback. Cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. I expected the Sun Devils to be much better — albeit that would not necessarily mean translate into more victories or point spread covers. About everything has gone right for this team to win and cover the point spread in their first three games, but their formula for success is unsustainable. Arizona State has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech is 22-11-1 ATS in their 34 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Arizona State-Texas Tech FS1-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (384) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (383). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-21-24 |
Memphis v. Navy +10 | Top | 44-56 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 20-12 upset victory at Florida State as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. Navy (2-0) returns to the field after beating Temple by a 38-11 score two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers dominated time of possession last week while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin in pulling off the signature victory against the Seminoles. Florida State is reeling amidst a start to the season that has exposed the inattention to recruiting under head coach Mike Norvell. In hindsight, the talent level in Tallahassee is not nearly the same as it was last season after losing ten players in the NFL including six in the first three rounds. The Seminoles have become overly dependent on the transfer portal which is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Norvell seems to have missed at quarterback after bringing in former Clemson and then Oregon State’s D.J. Uigalelei. The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis was already a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs — and now those playoff expectations fall firmly on their shoulders. Notre Dame felt similar pressure after their beating Texas A&M in their opening game — and they got upset the next week despite being nearly a four-touchdown favorite. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era. This is a very challenging spot for the Tigers staying on the road for a second week on the road against a team running a gimmicky new offense. It is highly doubtful that Silverfield and his coaching staff had anything other than Florida State on their minds last week. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on field turf. So far, so good for Navy after following up their victory against Bucknell with a dominant victory against the Owls in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at home. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after a win by 17 or more points. The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest-hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program which was their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. With an extra week to prepare for this game, expect many new schemes, formations, and plays from Cronic in what is this team’s biggest game of the season so far this year. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again. Often the Midshipmen go only as far as their quarterback — and they may have found a good one in junior Blake Horvath who only played in one game last year before suffering a season-ending injury. Horvath took control of the starting job in the spring and held off sophomore Braxton Woodson in the fall. He ran for 112 yards with three touchdowns last week on 15 carries. But the exciting dynamic for this program is his passing threat as he completed 5 of 9 passes for 112 yards with a touchdown pass as well. Against Bucknell in their opening game, Horvath completed 7 of 12 passes for 168 yards with another two touchdown passes.
FINAL TAKE: Navy has lost five straight games to the Tigers — so snapping that losing streak would go a long way to re-establish this program. But they will come into this game with confidence after only losing 28-24 at Memphis as an 11.5-point underdog last September 14th. The Midshipmen were able to run the ball for 299 yards on 50 carries for a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 meetings against the Tigers. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-14-24 |
Maryland v. Virginia +1 | | 27-13 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 45 m | Show |
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/14:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Virginia Cavaliers plus (or minus) the points versus the Maryland Terrapins. Virginia (2-0) looks to build off their 31-30 win at Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They return home looking to avenge their 42-14 loss at Maryland last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Maryland (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-24 upset loss at home to Michigan State as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. Take Virginia plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is now on a 66 of 110 (60%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING the Washington State-Washington Under in the Apple Cup in college football just now! Now Frank has tonight’s Toledo-Mississippi State ATS winner on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET for his 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT! |
09-14-24 |
Toledo v. Mississippi State -10 | Top | 41-17 |
Loss | -109 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-23 loss at Arizona State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Toledo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 38-23 win against UMass as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a get-right game for Mississippi State under rookie head coach Jeff Lebby. The former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Ole Miss mentioned in his press conference after last week’s game that he is focusing on getting off to a better start by his team this week. The Bulldogs went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score before they made it a game in the second half by outscoring the Sun Devils on the road by a 16-3 score. They nearly overcame a devastating fumble on their one-yard line that Arizona State scooped up to score a defensive touchdown. Senior transfer quarterback from Baylor Blake Shapen played well in a hostile environment by completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 passing yards while throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Mississippi State returns home to Davis Wade Stadium where they crushed Eastern Kentucky two weeks ago by a 56-7 score. The Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 range. Toledo was fortunate to get past the Minutemen after they outgained by -126 net yards. The Rockets only gained 258 yards of offense and lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin. They only produced a 26% Success Rate on their offensive plays. They benefitted from a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that immediately restored their seven-point lead in the second quarter. And the final score was deceptive since UMass failed at an onside kick after scoring a late touchdown with less than three minutes to go which gave Toledo a short field from which they scored a final touchdown to ice the game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards — he has completed less than 50% of his passes in over 200 career passes. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win on their home field. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points. Now after playing Duquesne and then the Minutemen at home, they go on the road for a big step up in competition against a Power Four program. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog under head coach Jason Candle. This is a rebuilding year for Candle with just eight starters back from their 11-3 team from last season. They lost three of their four starters in the secondary with two now playing in the NFL and one leaving in the transfer portal — and that leaves an inexperienced defensive backfield against this Bulldogs passing attack under Lebby.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in September — and Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-13-24 |
UNLV v. Kansas -9 | | 23-20 |
Loss | -105 | 1 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-17 upset loss at Illinois as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) comes off a 72-14 victory at home against Utah Tech as a 41.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played at the Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City since Kansas is building a new football stadium this year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Lance Leipold will have his team ready to play in this rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last December. Leipold’s teams going back to his previous tenure at Buffalo have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games after an upset loss on the road. His Kansas teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with six days or less of rest. Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against this UNLV team in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG. Daniels can be loose with the football — he threw three interceptions last week with the Fighting Illini returning one for a touchdown in what ended up being the difference in the game. The Jayhawks did hold Illinois to just 271 yards while outgaining them by +56 net yards. Tonight’s game presents a good opportunity for Daniels to learn from those mistakes and get on the same page with first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. Kansas ranks 20th in Success Rate on offense so far this season — and they are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. After ranking 11th in Explosiveness last season, they already have eight explosive plays this year. UNLV opened their season with a 27-7 upset win at Houston before their glorified scrimmage against an FCS school last week. My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Sluka has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 46.7% of his passes. Last week’s game should have been an opportunity for him to build some confidence in the passing game — but he only completed 8 of 17 passes against the Utah Tech defense. Let’s remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG. The defense got exposed when facing good offenses. Michigan scored 31 points against them while generating 8.1 Yards-Per-Play. Fresno State scored 31 points and averaged 5.1 YPP. San Jose State averaged 7.3 YPP en route to their 37 points. Boise State’s 44 points came from them generating 8.0 YPP. And in the bowl game, the Jayhawks gained 591 total yards by averaging 10.2 YPP while generating 449 yards in the air with six touchdown passes.
FINAL TAKE: UNLV has revenge on their minds but it may be Borland and the Kansas defensive coaches who will benefit more from recently facing Marion’s Go-Go approach on offense. The Rebels only rushed for 95 yards in that game from a 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry average — so the onus may be on Sluka to win this game with his arm. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UNLV-Kansas ESPN Special with the Kansas Jayhawks (108) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (107). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-07-24 |
California +12.5 v. Auburn | | 21-14 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) won their opening game of the season in a 31-13 win against UC-Davis as a 20.5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) began their season with a 73-3 victory against Alabama A&M as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal looked sluggish last week by only gaining 281 yards of offense against the Aggies — but they were holding some things back to save for this game. First-team All-Pac 12 running back Jaydn Ott only ran the ball 14 times for 49 yards — but he did score two touchdowns. The Golden Bears went into halftime with just a 14-13 lead — but they controlled the second half by outscoring UC-Davis by a 17-0 margin to pull away for the comfortable victory. They held the Aggies to just 304 total yards of offense — and they gave up only one offensive touchdown with UC-Davis scoring on a six-yard fumble recovery. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from the team that finished 6-7 after a 34-14 loss to Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog in the Independence Bowl. The Golden Bears did win their final three games of the regular season to become bowl-eligible. This may be Wilcox’s best team at Cal since his 2019 team that finished 8-5. The offensive line returns seven players with starting experience who entered the year with 117 combined starts. While Wilcox brought in former North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers in the transfer portal, it was sophomore Fernando Mendoza under center again after starting eight games last season. He was efficient last week by completing 15 of 22 passes for 158 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. The defense has eight starters back. Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with equal rest with their opponent. The Golden Bears have been very reliable in spots like this having covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games on the road as an underdog under Wilcox. They have also won four of their last seven games on the road against teams outside their conference — and they have covered the point spread in all 7 of those games. Auburn’s offense was only on the field for 13:26 minutes last week but still racked up 728 yards of offense in their glorified scrimmage against Alabama A&M. Hosting cupcakes before taking on SEC opponents has been the standard operating procedure for the Tigers — this game is the first time they are playing at home against a non-conference Power Five/Power Four program scene 2016. They have 17 starters back from the group that finished 6-7 last season after getting upset by Maryland in the Music City Bowl by a 31-13 score as a 4-point favorite. The defense replaced five players who got drafted into the NFL. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by at least a touchdown up to -37 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Berkeley last season with the Tigers pulling out a 14-10 victory as a 6-point road favorite — so Cal will have revenge on their mind while confident they can compete after outgaining the Tigers by 43 net yards on the strength of their defense that gave up only 230 yards of offense. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against opponents outside the SEC. 10* CFB California-Auburn ESPN2 Special with the California Golden Bears (323) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-02-24 |
Boston College v. Florida State -15 | | 28-13 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 24-21 upset loss against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland last Saturday. Boston College (0-0) makes their season debut tonight returning 17 starters from the group that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 win against SMU in the Fenway Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Yellow Jackets last week after concluding they were undervalued in that game. I also worried about Florida State perhaps looking past that team that has been rebuilding for years in the post-Paul Johnson era. The Seminoles may think they have become a top-five program — and they treated that game like it would be easy for them. My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game. Fixing the defense is going to be a long-term project for O’Brien and defensive coordinator Tim Lewis. Florida State should get their ground game tonight against that suspect run defense — and that should set up Uigalelei to have a better game with the running game established. He was solid if unspectacular last week by completing 19 of 27 passes without an interception.
FINAL TAKE: Boston College has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games against the Seminoles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State is the vastly superior team in terms of talent — and they will take their frustrations out on an Eagles team making their season debut with a new coaching staff. 10* CFB Boston College-Florida State ESPN Special with the Florida State Seminoles (220) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (219). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
08-31-24 |
Wyoming +7 v. Arizona State | | 7-48 |
Loss | -109 | 1 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) returns 14 starters from a team that finished 9-4 last season culminating in a 16-15 victory against Toledo in the Arizona Bowl. Arizona State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that finished 3-9 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils suffered through their second straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. The offense will be led by Sam Leavitt who transferred in from Michigan State after Jaden Rashada left the program for Georgia in the spring. The redshirt freshman has potential but did not get much playing time for the Spartans last season. Both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference FBS opponents. They are also 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home against FBS foes. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have gone 4-4 in their last eight games on the road against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 8 games. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
08-31-24 |
Notre Dame v. Texas A&M -3 | Top | 23-13 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (0-0) returns 18 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season in their 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 after a 40-8 victory against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: This game offers a fresh start for a Texas A&M program that remains loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. Elko inherits an Aggies roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. In his nine career games, Weigman has thrown for 1875 yards with 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will have the element of surprise tonight implementing a new offensive scheme for this team after finding success the last two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if he deploys an aggressive run scheme leaning on a crowded running back room of blue-chip talent. For Notre Dame, excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection for the Fighting Irish. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in the SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. That all said, this is a huge game for the Irish since their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way may put them on the College Football Playoff bubble if they have two losses at the end of the year (and a 10-3 record would probably leave them out — especially with later opponent Florida State already with one loss).
FINAL TAKE: These two are very familiar with each other. Denbrock had great success scheming against this Texas A&M defense with LSU last season — but he had the benefit of three first-round NFL draft picks in Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. There may be no head coach better prepared to devise a game plan against Leonard than Elko after he was his head coach for the last two seasons. And, of course, Elko has familiarity with Notre Dame after serving as their defensive coordinator. Finally, the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be electric where the Aggies have won 11 home openers in a row while covering the point spread in 7 of those games. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
08-24-24 |
Florida State v. Georgia Tech +10.5 | | 21-24 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (0-0) returns 13 starters from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Central Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl by a 30-17 score. Florida State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that lost to Georgia in the Orange Bowl by a 63-3 score. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: My biggest question with Florida State in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point — and the reports suggested he was inconsistent in spring practice. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. This is a challenging trip to Europe — and the team will be without offensive coordinator Alex Atkins who is suspended for the first three games this season for recruiting violations. Now they face an improving Georgia Tech team that upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia on the road last season. Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office.
FINAL TAKE: The weather forecasts in Dublin call for wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour — and that element adds volatility to the mix to this Seminoles team that has national championship aspirations. I’m not sure Florida State is at the level from season-to-season — and the Yellow Jackets probably have the better quarterback in this one. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games against ranked ACC opponents under Key’s leadership — and they pulled off the upset in all four contests. 10* CFB Florida State-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (305). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-08-24 |
Washington v. Michigan -4 | Top | 13-34 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-01-24 |
Texas v. Washington +4.5 | | 31-37 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281) and in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is riding high after their triumph in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating two or more conference rivals in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Quarterback Quinn Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 350 or more yards in their last contest. Longhorns’ safety Derek Williams, Jr. will miss the first half of this game after getting suspended during the Big 12 Championship Game for targeting — and that will leave a suspect Texas secondary even more vulnerable. The Longhorns rank 86th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. The Huskies generate 470.4 total Yards-Per-Game with 344 of those yards coming in the air. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against opponents generating 450 or more YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row against Pac-12 opponents. And while the Huskies have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than once in four or more games in a row. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies will have the better quarterback on the field in Michael Penix, Jr. who outdueled Bo Nix twice in their two showdowns with Oregon. The Huskies rank 6th in Passing Success Rate — and they rank 7th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate to keep defenses honest. Running back Dillon Johnson averages more than 3.0 Yards after contact. The Washington offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country — and this was a unit that protected Penix for just five pressures in his 55 dropbacks in the Alamo Bowl last season against Texas which the Huskies won by a 27-20 score. Washington leads the nation with a pressure-to-sack ratio of only 3.2%. Penix will have plenty of time to pick apart this vulnerable Longhorns pass defense. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Texas-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-01-24 |
Alabama v. Michigan -1 | Top | 20-27 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-01-24 |
Iowa +8 v. Tennessee | | 0-35 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) had their four-game winning streak snapped in their 26-0 loss to Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Tennessee (8-4) ended their two-game losing streak in a 48-24 victory against Vanderbilt as a 27-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa is many bettor’s Kryptonite because of their anemic offense — and they are an even uglier underdog coming off a shutout loss to Michigan. But the Hawkeyes defense is one of the best in the nation — and they are balanced as they rank 12th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They held their opponents to only 274.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 13.2 Points-Per-Game. Iowa also has an elite special teams unit. The key to playing against a Kirk Ferentz-coached team is to not play aggressively since they feast on mistakes — but I am not sure that is in Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s DNA, especially in a bowl game with little at stake. Given that Heupel is turning to his blue-chip freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in this game only compounds this potential problem for the Volunteers. Look for much of Iowa’s scoring coming from exploiting mistakes Tennessee makes in this game. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss including four of these last five circumstances. They have not allowed more than 264 yards in their last two games after the Wolverines only managed to gain 213 yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two or more games in a row. Admittedly, Iowa has not scored more than 15 points in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than 17 points in three or more games in a row. And while they have only averaged 234.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games for failing to average more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. The Hawkeyes' only significant player not playing in this game is wide receiver Diante Vines who entered the transfer portal. The Iowa offensive line is healthy again after the month off. Tennessee has had some defections that will be impactful. Quarterback Joe Milton has opted out of this game which is why Iamaleava is getting his shot. The Volunteers will also be without their top two running backs after Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small opted out of this game. Additionally, the Tennessee defense has taken some hits with defensive end Tyler Baron, safety Wesley Walker, and cornerback Doneiko Slaughter heading the long list of players that entered the transfer portal. The Volunteers surrendered 376.6 YPG and 27.8 PPG in their five games away from home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. And while they outgained the Commodores by +311 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Ferentz has won ten bowl games in his long tenure at Iowa — and the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-29-23 |
Missouri v. Ohio State -4.5 | Top | 14-3 |
Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-29-23 |
Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | | 36-26 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-3) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 45-21 victory at Temple as a 13-point favorite on November 24th. Iowa State (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 42-35 upset win at Kansas State as a 10-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Tigers home field at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis hosts this game — and while I do not expect a rowdy afternoon crowd for this game, I find much of the home-field advantage in football coming from familiarity and lack of travel which the Tigers will enjoy for this contest. The Tigers won four of their five home games this season to extend their home winning streak since 2017 to 29-5 straight-up — and they have a 55-11 record at home in the last ten seasons. Furthermore, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Tigers have played four straight Overs after their final regular season game with the Owls flew Over the 64-point Total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is dealing with some missing players including two starters on the offensive line who are in the transfer portal. But junior quarterback Seth Henigan is playing after passing for 3519 yards with 28 touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He has his two favorite targets for this game in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee who combined for 1806 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Blake Watson is also playing in this game after rushing for 104 yards with 14 touchdowns. Memphis ranked tenth in the nation in Points-Per-Play on offense while generating 453.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 39.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones struggle against potent offensive teams as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who generate 450 or more YPG. To make matters worse, they will be without their star cornerback T.J. Tampa who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spreading in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa State Matt Campbell usually gets the most out of his roster - but the overall athleticism on the roster remains a question that was only made worse by the gambling scandal that impacted the team early in the season. It is telling that the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Memphis-Iowa State ESPN Special with the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-28-23 |
Arizona v. Oklahoma +3.5 | | 38-24 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 69-45 victory as a 10-point favorite against TCU on November 24th. Arizona (9-3) has won six games in a row with their 59-23 victory at Arizona State as a 10.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has two new faces playing big roles with their offense since the victory against the Horned Frogs. Offensive coordinator Jeff Libby left the program to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State — so head coach Brent Venables tapped offensive analyst Seth Littrell as the new play-caller and offensive coordinator. Venables hired Littrell after he was let go as the North Texas head coach. He has previous experience as an offensive coordinator at Arizona, Indiana, and then North Carolina which got him the head coaching gig at North Texas. He runs an Air Raid offense as well — so there should be no drop-off. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal and will play at Oregon next season — so that opens the door for the Sooners to begin the Jackson Arnold era. The five-star freshman is considered a potential future first-round draft pick in the NFL. He completed 18 of 24 passes this season for 202 yards with an 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He is a threat with his legs as well with 78 rushing yards in his limited time on the field — and he thrives in operating within inside zone read rushing schemes. The Wildcats are vulnerable in this area — they allowed an Opponent Success Rate of 41% against inside zone rushing plays. If this was an early September game, Arnold would be given much respect — and after a few weeks of practice with the first team for bowl prep after being with the team all year, he should be ready to roll. Oklahoma has a long transfer and opt-out list — but the biggest losses are three starters on the offensive line. Arnold still has great weapons at his disposal in Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson, and Jalil Farooq. The defense got some great news when junior linebacker Danny Stutsman and junior safety Billy Bowman both announced they were returning for their senior seasons — and both are playing in this game. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in a victory as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. Additionally, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their surprising regular season in the Pac-12 where they upset Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 35 or more points in a victory over a Pac-12 rival. Arizona covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. Before beating the Sun Devils to conclude their regular season, they upset Utah by a 42-18 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last two contests. The offense improved when head coach Jedd Fisch turned to redshirt freshman Noah Fifita as his starting quarterback — but the underlying metrics do raise some concerns. He had seven “Big Time” throws but eight turnover-worthy plays despite only five interceptions. That negative ratio is worrisome — especially with the Sooners given a month of preparation time. Fifita has a low adjusted completion percentage of 34% on his 38 throws of 20 or more air yards. To compound matters, Arizona star left tackle Jordan Morgan opted out for this game leaving the blind side duties to sophomore Joseph Borjon who only was involved in 175 plays this season.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-26-23 |
Kansas v. UNLV +13 | | 49-36 |
Push | 0 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Rebels have allowed 477.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. Kansas held the Bearcats to just 111 passing yards in their final regular season game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing no more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Jayhawks generated 562 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game. The program has since lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. The offense also suffered a blow with starting left tackle Dominick Puni opting out for this game leaving them having to start a freshman to protect quarterback Jason Bean’s blind side. The Jayhawks rushed for 312 yards against Cincinnati — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after rushing for 300 or more yards in their last game. And while they rushed for 234 yards in their previous game against Kansas State, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after rushing for 225 or more yards in two straight games. The Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. 8* CFB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-26-23 |
Texas State v. Rice +4.5 | | 45-21 |
Loss | -105 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Rice (6-6) won their final two games of the season after a 24-21 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point favorite on November 25th. Texas State (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 52-44 upset win against South Alabama as a 6-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an important game for Rice after they won their final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. Winning this game would secure the Owls their first winning season in their six seasons under head coach Mike Bloomgren. They reached a bowl game last year despite a 5-7 record but lost 38-24 to Southern Mississippi in what was their first bowl game in eight seasons. Bloomgren is recruiting well — and this game offers an opportunity to showcase his program to a national audience and potential recruits. It is telling that he has no players opting out or entering the transfer portal. Sixth-year senior quarter J.T. Daniels did announce his retirement from college football due to medical reasons — but the offense is in good hands in redshirt freshman A.J. Padgett who has 225 snaps under his belt after starting the last few games. Padgett completed 24 of 37 passes for 255 yards with three touchdowns and one interception against FAU. Padgett started in the Owls’ bowl game last year — and this start gives him a head start to claim the starting QB job next season. Rice usually builds off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while they outgained FAU by +194 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more Yards-Per-Game. They did not force a turnover in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last contest. Florida Atlantic did average 6.49 Yards-Per-Play against them — but Rice has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. Texas State will be playing in their first-ever bowl game in what has been a triumphant season under first-year head coach G.J. Kinne. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent. Texas State generated 479 total yards against the Jaguars in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats have a dynamic offense — but they are vulnerable against good passing teams as they rank 105th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Rice ranks 28th in Pass Success Rate. The Owls should be able to slow down the Texas State passing attack as well — they rank 35th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed.
FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing on field turf which is the surface at Gerald Ford Stadium. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ESPN Special with the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-23-23 |
James Madison v. Air Force +3 | Top | 21-31 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3 loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.
FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess. That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-22-23 |
Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +6 | | 17-30 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-23 loss to Georgia as a 24-point underdog on November 25th. Central Florida (6-6) has won three of their last four games after their 27-13 victory against Houston as a 14-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was inconsistent this season — they upset Miami (FL) and North Carolina while playing Georgia close but got blown out by Clemson and Ole Miss while losing by double-digits to Bowling Green. This is an important game in the first full season under head coach Brent Key — so I look for a strong effort tonight. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their 4-4 record after Key took over as the interim head coach last season was a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? Key seems to have this program moving in the right direction. With former Texas A&M transfer Hunter King at quarterback, the Yellow Jackets finally found a consistent offensive identity in the aftermath of moving away from the Paul Johnson triple option era of the last decade that led to hiring Geoff Collins from Temple to attempt to oversee the transition to a pro-style offense. Georgia Tech generated 432.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 31.2 Points-Per-Game. King tossed 26 touchdown passes. The primary strength of the offense comes from their rushing attack which ranks 22nd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Offensive Line Yards. They have rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their last six contests. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Central Florida gained 476 total yards in their win against the Cougars — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Led by quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, the Knights enjoy a good balanced offense — but the Yellow Jackets should have success running the ball against them. Central Florida ranks 124th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 112th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. They allowed four Big 12 foes to rush for at least 200 yards against them including Kansas to rolled up 399 rushing yards against them. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: The transfer portal and opt-out situation for this game are relatively minor and pretty balanced. UCF will miss four players who entered the transfer portal with the biggest loss being starting cornerback Corey Thornton. Georgia Tech will be without defensive end Kyle Kennard and cornerback Kenan Johnson who are in the transfer portal. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral field as an underdog — and the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite laying up to seven points. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-16-23 |
Miami-OH +6.5 v. Appalachian State | | 9-13 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won five games in a row after their 23-14 upset victory against Toledo as a 6.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Appalachian State (8-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 49-23 loss at Troy as a 5.5-point underdog in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) will be using sophomore Henry Hesson at quarterback this afternoon given Aveon Smith’s decision to enter the transfer portal. Smith had been the team’s starting quarterback since Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury. Frankly, while Smith was productive with his legs, he was not offering the RedHawks much offense in the passing game. Miami (OH) was always going to rely on the other two phases of the game. They are allowing only 16.2 Points-Per-Game this season while giving up just 326.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The RedHawks also have an outstanding special teams unit under head coach Chuck Martin. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Total was set in the 43.5 range against the Rockets in the MAC Championship Game — and they held Toledo to only 97 rushing yards on 29 carries. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Appalachian State may have trouble getting up for this game after getting blown out in their championship game. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. And while Appalachian State had covered the point spread in four straight contests before the loss to the Trojans, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers are down four players who entered the transfer portal since that game with the biggest loss being their top running back Nate Noel who gained 834 rushing yards this season. Appalachian State is not a good defensive team as they allow their opponents to generate 389.9 total YPG which results in 28.4 PPG after Troy generated 463 yards against them — and they allow 30.9 PPG when playing on the road. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in December.
FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favorite — and Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5-10 points. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their bowl games under Martin’s tenure. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-09-23 |
Army v. Navy +3 | | 17-11 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). THE SITUATION: Navy (5-6) looks to bounce back from their 59-14 loss at SMU as an 18.5-point underdog on November 25th. Army (5-6) comes off a 28-21 upset victory as a 1-point underdog against Coastal Carolina on November 18th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy got outgained by -224 net yards against the Mustangs two weeks ago — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in their last game. The Midshipmen only managed to generate 3.61 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after failing to generate more than 3.75 YPP in their last contest. And while SMU averaged 7.57 YPP in that game, Navy has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread 8 of their last 9 games after failing to average at least 3.25 YPP in their last game while allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP. Navy has a good run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Midshipmen have not allowed more than 118 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. In a game between two teams that average 46 and 48 rushing attempts per game respectively, the Midshipmen have the edge in run defense. Army ranks 93rd in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 116th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Army allowed the Chanticleers to generate 7.68 YPP in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games when playing off a bye week.
FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points. Navy has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-02-23 |
Louisville +6 v. Florida State | Top | 6-16 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Louisville (10-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss to Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 24-15 win at Florida as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: I was looking to fade the Seminoles even before the season-ending injury to senior quarterback Jordan Travis. Junior Tate Rodemaker is a big drop in talent — but now his presence in this game is doubtful after he suffered a concussion in last week’s game. He was not great even against subpar Florida defense as he completed 12 of 25 passes for 134 yards. He is a game-time decision — and even if miraculously passes the strict concussion protocols, he has a big challenge tonight. If Rodemaker cannot go, then it is freshman Brock Glenn who will get the start. On the plus side, Glenn was a four-star recruit out of Tennessee who flipped his commitment from Ohio State back to Florida State after long being a target by the Seminoles. However, in my deep dive into the recruiting archives on his history, I am seeing comments such as “will need a year or two of development” before being ready to play at the Power Five level — so this is far from ideal for someone playing against high school players last year. He missed three weeks of practice time due to injury — and he only has four pass attempts in game action this season. He is a pro-style quarterback who will run the ball with his above-average athleticism — but he is not a speedster. He had a proclivity to throw interceptions in high school. Florida State already faces tons of pressure of needing to win this game to make the College Football Playoff. They enjoyed a soft schedule after getting by LSU early in the season — and that was a game where Travis carried them with his play-making against what we would learn was a bad Tigers defense. The Seminoles were very fortunate to beat Clemson who outgained them by +118 net yards. They also got outgained in yardage by Boston College and Miami (FL) but pulled out games decided by one-scoring possession with Travis at quarterback. Florida State only ran for 90 yards last week on 31 carries despite needing to rely on their running backs given the Travis injury — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. While Trey Benson has rushed for a lot of yards, the Seminoles rank 109th in Rushing Success Rate. The problem is their offensive line as they rank only 123rd in the nation in Line Yards. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning eight or more games in a row. Louisville has an excellent defense that holds their opponents to 317.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 20.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Cardinals' defense is balanced as they rank 17th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have a very good defensive line led by defensive end Ashton Gillotte that ranks fifth in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They have generated 30 sacks and 54 tackles for loss — and that will likely spell trouble for the freshman quarterback in his first collegiate start. On offense, the Cardinals are led by an experienced graduate student Jack Plummer who is five years of experience learning under head coach Jeff Brohm in operating his version of the Air Raid offense. Louisville ranks 18th in the nation in Success Rate on offense -- and they are balanced. They rank 20th in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 11th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Cardinals have the opportunity to redeem themselves by giving last week’s in-state rivalry game away against the Wildcats. They gave the ball away three times in the second half including two times inside their 40-yard line to gift Kentucky 10 points and blow their 10-point second-half lead. Louisville has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: If the play at quarterback will not make the difference in this game, the Cardinals have the edge in head coaches as well. Brohm’s teams have covered the point spread in 28 of their 45 games as an underdog going back to his six seasons at Purdue — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +17.0 or more PPG (Florida State: +22.0 PPG). Florida State head coach Mike Norvell’s teams have failed to cover the point spread against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in December. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-02-23 |
Michigan -21.5 v. Iowa | | 26-0 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (323) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (324) in the Big Ten Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 30-24 win against Ohio State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (10-2) has won four straight games after their 13-10 upset win at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan should continue their run tonight with a statement victory in the Big Ten Championship Game — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by seven points or less against a Big Ten rival. It is going to be difficult for the the anemic Hawkeyes offense to put up many points against this Wolverines defense that ranks number one in the nation by holding their opponents to just 10.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank second in the nation in Points Allowed per Possession. Since getting upset on the road to Iowa in 2016, Michigan has held the Hawkeyes to just 20 combined points in their last three meetings with a Kirk Ferentz team. Head coach Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline — and he is well aware that risky play-calling is what will give Iowa opportunities. The Hawkeyes once again have a great defense — but they have only forced two turnovers in their last five games. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in four straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory against a Big Ten rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. The Hawkeyes have only scored 16 combined points in their last two appearances in the Big 10 Championship Game.
FINAL TAKE: While I don’t love laying more than three touchdowns, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 21.5 to 31.5 points. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 21.5 to 31 points. Michigan has scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 12 games — and Iowa has failed to score more than 15 points in five of their last six games. 8* CFB Michigan-Iowa Fox-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (323) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (324). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-02-23 |
SMU v. Tulane -2.5 | | 26-14 |
Loss | -114 | 0 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (316) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (315) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-1) has won ten straight games after their 29-16 win against UTSA as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. SMU (10-2) has won eight games in a row after their 59-14 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: The Mustangs suffered a big blow last week in the win against the Midshipmen with third-year sophomore quarterback Preston Stone suffering a season-ending broken leg. The former four-star quarterback ranked 32nd in the nation in Total QBR. It will be redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings in his absence who is not nearly as a touted recruit coming out of high school — and this will be his first collegiate start after throwing 24 passes this season mostly in mop-up duty. This is not a good spot for SMU which can struggle with consistency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a win at home by 17 or points. And while the Mustangs have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. And in their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those contests. Tulane has won 23 of their last 26 games under head coach Willie Fritz — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after winning eight or more of their last 10 games. The Green Wave have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a victory against a conference opponent. They have a future NFL quarterback under center in Michael Pratt who has thrown 48 touchdown passes the last two seasons with only nine interceptions.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane is scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tulane Green Wave (316) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (315). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-02-23 |
Miami-OH +8 v. Toledo | Top | 23-14 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won four games in a row after their 17-15 win at Ball State as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (11-1) won their 11th straight game last Friday in a 32-17 victory at Central Michigan as a 10-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) is the Group of Five version of the Iowa Hawkeyes under head coach Chuck Martin in his tenth season with the program. The RedHawks can struggle to score — they are a run-first team that will play at a slow pace to shorten the game. But their defense is excellent — they rank 15th in the nation in Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. They have held their last four opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those foes scoring more than 16 points. For the season, Miami (OH) is allowing just 323.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.3 PPG. The RedHawks special teams are outstanding as well — Connelly ranks them the best unit in the nation using his SP+ metrics. And this is a team that does not make many mistakes as they rank 11th in the nation in fewest penalty yards. They held the Rockets to just 318 total yards in their first meeting of the season on October 21st in a 21-17 loss as a home underdog getting 2-points. It was in that game that junior quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered his season-ending leg injury. Redshirt sophomore Aveon Smith stepped up in his absence to win the last four games of the season under center. He made nine starts last season for this team (after Gabbert went down with season-ending shoulder injury) including their 24-20 loss to UAB in the Bahamas Bowl — so he has plenty of experience. While Smith is capable with his arm, he offers Miami (OH) a rushing threat — the team is RPO-heavy with him at quarterback. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. And while they got outrushed by -228 net yards to the Cardinals last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrushed by -125 or more yards. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo may be due for an emotional letdown after their strong run through the regular season after an opening-week loss at Illinois. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after beating three straight MAC rivals. They did generate 6.28 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Chippewas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while Toledo has scored at least 31 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 road games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rockets' offense was propped up all season by a soft schedule consisting of mostly mediocre defenses. Their non-conference schedule was against Texas Southern, San Jose State, and the Fighting Illini. They only managed 318 total yards against the RedHawks in the first meeting between these two teams. Junior quarterback DeQaun Finn is prone to mistakes. While he threw 21 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions in the regular season, his “Big Time” throws dropped to just 17 — and he committed 14 turnover-worthy plays according to the metrics at Pro Football Focus. Toledo failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when listed as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss of seven points or less. The underdog has won four of the last five Mid-American Conference Championship Games — and three of those dogs were getting more than 3.5 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-01-23 |
Oregon -7.5 v. Washington | | 31-34 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon dominated the Beavers as they outgained them by +207 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row against a conference opponent. The Oregon defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG — and there are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Washington does not have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Pac-12 opponent.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. 8* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-25-23 |
California +9.5 v. UCLA | | 33-7 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). THE SITUATION: California (5-6) has won two games in a row after their 27-15 victory at Stanford as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. UCLA (7-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 38-20 upset win at USC as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Cardinal last week by gaining 455 yards of offense while holding them to just 289 total yards. Now this team needs to win this game to become bowl eligible for head coach Justin Wilcox who may be coaching for his job. The Golden Bears have not allowed more than 125 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Their game with Stanford finished Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they were on a four-game losing streak before winning their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in November. And while the Bruins are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net Points-Per-Game, Cal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. UCLA is a prime suspect for an emotional letdown after their upset victory against the Trojans last week. They did get outgained by -33 net yards by USC last week but their 11-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown was the winning difference for them. The Bruins have nothing at stake for this game outside of Senior Night — but head coach Chip Kelly may still be on the hot seat given the whispers a few weeks ago. The Golden Bears are scoring 31.5 PPG — and UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams who are scoring 31.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points with Kelly as their head coach. California has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points including eight of those last ten situations. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-18-23 |
Washington v. Oregon State +1 | | 22-20 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 62-17 victory against Stanford as a 21.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (10-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-28 victory against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Huskies have been living dangerously since their triumphant victory against Oregon last month. Their last four victories have all been by ten points or less including a shaky 15-7 win against Arizona State. While the Washington offense is dynamic with Michael Penix, Jr. under center, their defense is below average. The Huskies rank 68th in the nation in Points Allowed per Opponent’s Scoring Opportunities inside their 40-yard line. They do not put pressure on the quarterback as they rank 131st in the nation in both sacks per drop back and run stuff rate. Opponents are converting on 42.2% of their third downs, the 102nd-worst mark in the FBS. They also rank 127th in the nation in Opponents Rush Success Rate Allowed — and that is a scary number when playing this Oregon State team. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Utes generated 6.70 Yards-Per-Play against them — and the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. Washington has scored at least 35 points in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after the first month of the season. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Beavers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. They outgained the Cardinal by +274 net yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more net yards. Oregon State is a physical team that can make things very difficult for the Huskies. They have a great offensive line that is healthy again with center Jake Levengood returning to action. Led by running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, the Beavers rank third in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Those two running backs are combining to average 152.1 rushing YPG. Oregon State also ranks 15th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness with D.J. Uiagalelei under center. He ranks 13th in the nation by averaging 10.9 air yards per pass — and he has 42 completions of 20 or more yards, ranking 10th in the nation. The Beavers rank 23rd in the nation in Points Allowed per Scoring Opportunity. Their defense will make things difficult on Penix — opposing quarterbacks are completing under 60% of their passes with just four touchdown passes and ten interceptions. In the last three seasons, Oregon State has given up only 14 touchdown passes while picking off 25 passes.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon State will be motivated to avenge a 24-21 loss at Washington as a 4.5-point underdog last season on November 4th. The Beavers get this rematch in Corvallis where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 18 games while beating the point spread number by at least 10 points in those contests. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-18-23 |
Oklahoma State v. Houston +6.5 | | 43-30 |
Loss | -109 | 0 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). THE SITUATION: Houston (4-6) lost for the third time in their last four games in a 24-14 upset loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (7-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 45-3 upset loss at Central Florida on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston will have plenty of motivation on Senior Day this afternoon. They need to win the final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. They can also play the role of spoiler and ruin the Cowboys' Big 12 Championship Game aspirations. The Cougars have bounced back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bearcats outgained them by -129 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Houston has covered the point spread once in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a blowout loss by 35 or more points. It may be difficult for the Cowboys to pick themselves off the mat after such a deflating loss where they gave up a whopping 592 total yards of offense. The offense really struggled as well with senior quarterback Alex Bowman throwing three interceptions. That game was just the fourth time in the last three years that Oklahoma State did not score more than 14 points nor score more than three points in the first half (they were shut out in the first half last week). The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of those previous games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They could not get their ground game going against the Knights as they ran for just 52 yards on 25 carries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last contest. Now they stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -5.7 Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -71.7 net Yards-Per-Game given their defense surrendering 442.0 YPG to their home hosts. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-62 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-15-23 |
Central Michigan v. Ohio -10.5 | | 20-34 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). THE SITUATION: Ohio (7-3) has won two of their last three games after their 20-10 win at Buffalo as a 9-point favorite last Tuesday. Central Michigan (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-28 loss at Western Michigan as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a conference opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how quickly could Kurtis Rourke regain the form that led him to winning the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season The fifth-year quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes with only four interceptions while posting an adjusted completion percentage of 78% before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the MAC Championship Game and the Arizona Bowl. Tim Albin is building a culture in his image in his third year as the Bobcats’ head coach — but they lost six of the 14 players on defense that played at least 300 snaps. After a dramatic improvement on defense in the second half of the season, their biggest weakness appears to be a defensive line that returns only one starter for their 4-3 look — and they replaced both safeties from a unit that ranked 117th in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Well, Rourke has been solid, if not spectacular so far this season. He ranks 21st in the nation with a 50% positive Expected Points Added rate per dropback. The Ohio defense has been outstanding as they rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Stuff Rate and 11th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point setback. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their disappointing 4-8 season last year was a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program. This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters returned on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. After ten games into this season, it looks like their success in 2021 was an aberration. Sophomore quarterback Jase Bauer ranks 107th of 146 qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback — and he ranks 109th in completion percentage. Central Michigan generates only 313.3 Yards-Per-Game on the road which results in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in conference action including losing the point spread in five of their last six games against MAC rivals — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against conference opponents. 8* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-11-23 |
NC State v. Wake Forest +2.5 | Top | 26-6 |
Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-5) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 24-21 loss at Duke as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina State (6-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in a 20-6 win against Miami (FL) at home as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest lost to the Blue Devils despite outgaining them by +133 net yards in that game. Look for the Demon Deacons to respond this afternoon with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to an ACC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by seven points or less against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The biggest question I had for this team in the preseason deep dive was whether Wake Forest’s seven-game bowl streak was in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson. Only 11 starters returned from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Clawson is getting solid play out of fourth-year sophomore Mitch Griffis at quarterback — he completed 16 of 19 passes for 241 yards while adding 55 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in the losing effort against Duke. The Demon Deacons played what still remains a good Clemson team close earlier this season in a 17-12 loss. With four victories and games at Notre Dame and Syracuse on deck, this is likely the critical game to maintain Clawson’s bowl streak alive. NC State was riding high after following up their 24-17 upset win against Clemson as a 10-point underdog with their upset win against the Hurricanes. But then sophomore quarterback M.J. Morris surprised the coaching staff by retaining his year of eligibility by taking his redshirt option for the rest of the season. Now head coach Dave Doeren has to turn back to Brennan Armstrong who got benched at the end of September for Morris due to ineffective play. Expectations were high when Armstrong transferred in from Virginia to reunite with offensive coordinator Robert Anae who was his former OC with the Cavaliers. But Armstrong did not fit with Doeren’s more compact offensive philosophy than his successful 2021 campaign with Anae. He completed only 58.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average is a career-low. The Wolfpack appear primed for an emotional letdown under these circumstances — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Both of their upset wins were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row at home. Now they go back on the road where they are only scoring 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 road games when favored including five of their last seven games under those circumstances. NC State may have six wins but they have benefitted from a 3-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They have been outgained this season by -13.6 net Yards-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has a 51-38-1 ATS record as an underdog under Clawson — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 48 games as an underdog following a loss with Clawson as their head coach. This is the Demon Deacons' last home game of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-11-23 |
Virginia Tech -1.5 v. Boston College | | 48-22 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss at Louisville as a 9-point underdog last Saturday. Boston College (6-3) has won five games in a row with their 17-10 win at Syracuse as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 6-3 record, the Eagles are a home underdog in this game. While the betting public is on Boston College this afternoon, one look at their resume explains why they are getting the points. Five of their six wins have been by one scoring possession — and their victories are against a bevy of suspect teams like Army, Connecticut, Virginia, Holy Cross, an erratic Georgia Tech team, and the Orange. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win against an ACC rival. And while that game finished below the 47.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a game that finished Under the Total. The Eagles forced four Syracuse turnovers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing three or more turnovers in their last game. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether head coach Jeff Hafley learned the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. He is getting some wins now against lesser competition — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog getting up to three points. Virginia Tech had been playing better lately with the move to sophomore Kyron Drones at quarterback — they upset Pittsburgh and beat Wake Forest and Syracuse over a four-game stretch with their lone loss being at Florida State. But they were flat on the road against the Cardinals while gaining only 140 total yards. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points. And while they only generated 2.75 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after failing to average more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. Virginia Tech has lost both of their games decided by one scoring possession. They have outgained their opponents by +30.9 net Yards-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when favored by seven points or less. 10* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-04-23 |
Washington v. USC +3 | Top | 52-42 |
Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). THE SITUATION: USC (7-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 50-49 win at California as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (8-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 42-33 win at Stanford on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the victory last week, the embattled USC defense continued to struggle against the Golden Bears. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. And while they gave up 28 points in the first half to Cal, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. The problems with the USC defense are mostly against the run — but the Huskies are not likely to commit to running the football. They only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry last week against the Cardinal on 27 carries after rushing for a mere 13 yards on 13 carries in their previous game against Arizona State. Washington is being slowed down by issues with the interior of their offensive line — and USC does rush the passer as they rank 11th in the nation in Havoc Rate. The Trojans have talent in their secondary — and that is one of the reasons why they are holding opposing quarterbacks to completing just 61.2% of their passes. USC also ranks 21st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Washington has been sluggish in their last two games after their triumphant win against Oregon — they only beat Arizona State by a 15-8 score before getting outgained by -39 net yards to a struggling Cardinal team. While the head coach Lincoln Riley (rightly) gets criticized for the underperforming Trojans' defense, the Huskies' defense has been just as bad after watching Stanford generate 499 yards against them. The Huskies rank 125th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 115th in Havoc Rate while ranking 118th in Pressure Rate and 131st Sack Rate — and those are frightening numbers when now facing USC’s Caleb Williams who is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.
FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 63 or higher. In a game that looks like the last quarterback to have the ball wins, look for Williams to outduel Michael Penix, Jr. — and we get the added insurance of the three points for the home dog. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-04-23 |
SMU v. Rice +13.5 | | 36-31 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: Rice (4-4) lost for the second time in their last three games with their 30-28 loss to Tulane as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (6-2) is on a four-game winning streak with their 69-10 victory against Tulsa on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Rice almost rallied to beat the Green Wave last week despite getting outgained by -186 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Much of that yardage disparity can be explained by Rice’s offense only being on the field for 23:55 minutes in that game. They allowed Tulane to generate 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing their last opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. My biggest question for this team in my off-season deep dive was whether it was becoming now-or-never time for head coach Mike Bloomgren to lead his team to a winning record for the first time in his six seasons with the program. He inherited a 1-11 football team — and the Owls have improved in the win department in each season (outside the 2020 COVID year when they finished 2-3 on an abbreviated schedule). The five wins they won last year were the most since 2015 — and they did play in a bowl game for the first time in eight seasons despite a 5-7 record (they lost to Southern Mississippi in the Lending Tree Bowl). The former Stanford offensive coordinator is recruiting well — and he brought in former USC, Georgia, and West Virginia five-star recruit J.T. Daniels at quarterback. Fifteen starters are back from last year including four of the top five tacklers on defense. However, the move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference presents a more difficult strength of schedule. So far so good this season with their .500 record which includes a 2-2 mark in conference play. They are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 Points-Per-Game while also outgaining their opponents in yardage. Two of their losses have been by one scoring possession. Daniels has been steady under center — he is completing 63.6% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. SMU has outscored their last two opponents by a 124 to 10 point margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points. They outgained the Golden Hurricane by +391 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Mustangs have been very active in the transfer portal — but my main question for this program in the offseason was whether they taking one step forward for every two steps back in the portal. Second-year head coach Rhett Lashlee brought several players on both sides of the ball from Miami (FL) where he was previously the offensive coordinator. He has also brought in some defensive players from Liberty where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously served. But two-year starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai left the program for Wisconsin after making 24 starts in the last two seasons. This is a team that finished 7-6 in their first year under Lashlee — the worst record for this program in four seasons. While the Mustangs ranked 14th in the nation by generating 472.8 total YPG, they also ranked 111th by allowing 431.2 total YPG. Third-year sophomore Preston Stone takes over at quarterback as a former four-star recruit — but this could be a program moving in the wrong direction after Sonny Dykes left two years ago to become the head coach at TCU. Winning six of their first six games seems to be a solid endorsement of where this team is headed under Lashlee — but they are 4-0 at home but just 2-2 when playing on the road where their scoring drops by -12.0 PPG. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-04-23 |
Arizona State v. Utah -10 | | 3-55 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). THE SITUATION: Utah (6-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 35-6 loss at home to Oregon as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arizona State (2-6) ended their six-game losing streak with their 38-27 upset victory against Washington State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: The Utes should rebound under head coach Kyle Whittingham this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Utah defense has struggled the last two weeks by giving up 35 and 32 points against the powerful Ducks and USC offenses in the last two weeks. But they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games And while Oregon averaged 6.72 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Utes have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after allowing 6.25 or more YPP. Utah is still holding their guests to only 14.8 Points-Per-Game and just 277.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The Utes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 at home when favored. Furthermore, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or lower. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against a Pac-12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit upset victory. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Sun Devils outgained the Cougars by +106 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: While Utah has underachieved on offense as they deal with injuries on that side of the ball, they did score 34 points in their previous two games against California and USC before getting stymied against the Ducks. Now they face a porous Arizona State run defense that ranks 98th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 111th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-04-23 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson +3 | Top | 23-31 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). THE SITUATION: Clemson (4-4) has also two games in a row after their 24-17 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (7-2) has won three of their last four games after a 58-7 thrashing at home against Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight upset losses after getting upset at Miami (FL) the previous week. The Tigers did outgain the Wolfpack by +162 net yards as they held them to a mere 202 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin along with a 15-yard interception returned for a touchdown by NC State played a big role in that game. This has been the story of the Clemson season. In their four losses this season, they are outgaining their opponents by more than +300 net Yards-Per-Game but are holding themselves back with a -6 net turnover margin with ten lost fumbles in those contests. Failing to convert on five of their seven fourth-down chances in those games has not helped either. Head coach Dabo Swinney claimed earlier this week that his team would be 8-0 if not for them leading the nation in fumbles. Ranking in the bottom ten in the nation in Red Zone Scoring Percentage has not helped the cause either. But fumble luck as well as scoring in the Red Zone tends to regress over the long run. This remains a team that is outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and their +148.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark is a reliable assessment of how they should perform moving forward. Remember, this is a team that has lost twice in overtime and that only has a 1-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They outplayed and outgained Florida State by a 429 to 311 yardage margin before coaching decisions and late miscues and some Seminoles’ good fortunate combined to have the Tigers somehow give that game away in overtime. So while the critics can point to Clemson’s 7-7 record in their last 14 games, this remains a very talented group — especially on defense. The Tigers still possess an elite defense that ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 4.4 Yards-Per-Play. They rank sixth in the FBS by allowing only 267.5 total YPG — and they are 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The offense has struggled in the Red Zone under quarterback Cade Klubnik — and some of the shine is off new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who came over from TCU in the offseason. But the Tigers are still averaging 453.8 YPG at home which is generating 38.8 PPG. Running back Will Shipley is injured for this game — but that means more carries for second-year freshman Phil Mafah who is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry and +1.5 more yards after contact than Shipley. After playing their last two games on the road, Clemson returns home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 42.5-46 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Tigers have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Notre Dame goes on the road again after beating USC and the Panthers at home by 28 and 51 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home by 14 or more points. The Fighting Irish have forced five turnovers in two straight games — they have enjoyed +5 and +3 net turnover margins in their last two contest. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers as Notre Dame will remember in their upset loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over five times in their last trip on the road. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +3 or more net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two games in a row with a +3 or more net turnover margin. They lost their best receiver last week when their talented tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. That does not help a Fighting Irish team that has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against teams not allowing more than 285 YPG.
FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Clemson team under head coach Dabo Swinney is an underdog at home in Death Valley. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 home games getting more than three points in the Swinney era — and they are covering the point spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Swinney should have no problem getting his team up for this game since playing Notre Dame is always something special — and they will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in South Bend last season by a 35-14 score despite being a 4-point road favorite. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-28-23 |
UNLV v. Fresno State -9 | | 24-31 |
Loss | -109 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (6-1) rebounded from their loss on the road at Wyoming with a 37-32 victory at Utah State as a 5.5-point favorite back on October 13th. UNLV (6-1) won their fifth game in a row with a 25-23 win against Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a victory against a conference rival by seven points or less including their last four games under those circumstances. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs return home where they are 3-0 with an average scoring margin of +21.3 net Points-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback Mikey Keene is questionable to play tonight with leg injuries — but head coach Jeff Tedford has a capable backup in junior Logan Fife who had four starts last season and also was the starter two weeks ago against the Aggies. In that game, Fife completed 22 of 39 yards for 291 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions while adding 21 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 home games under Tedford when favored by 7.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games under Tedford with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range. UNLV has been one of the surprises of the season with their six victories in seven games — but they are only outgaining their opponents by +20.9 net YPG. They have won both their games decided by one scoring possession. Outside of playing at the Big House against Michigan, the Rebels have played a light schedule with Vanderbilt being their only other Power Five Conference opponent and they had a game with Bryant out of the FCS. Their five games against UTEP, Vanderbilt, Hawai’i, Nevada, and Colorado Stare were against opponents all with losing records — and that collective record of those five opponents is 11-28. UNLV has won the turnover battle in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after posting a +1 or better turnover margin. The Rebels had covered the point spread in their first six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after covering four of their last five games. First-year head coach Barry Odom deserves credit for turning this team around so quickly — but his teams going back to his time with Missouri have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in that 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-28-23 |
Cincinnati +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | | 13-45 |
Loss | -100 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-5) has lost five games in a row after a 32-29 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-2) has won three games in a row with their 48-34 victory at West Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati outgained the Bears last week by a 450 to 396 margin in yards but a fumble recovery returned for a 15-yard touchdown was too much for them to overcome. That game was the second time during their losing streak that an opponent’s defensive touchdown played a big role in a game decided by one-scoring possession. The Bearcats are outscoring their opponents this season despite their losing record — and they are outgaining their opponents by +98.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Besides Baylor last week, they have also outgained BYU and Miami (OH) but found a way to lose the game. Cincinnati has not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing four or more games in a row. First-year head coach Scott Satterfield needs to turn things around — and the Bearcats should remain competitive in this one. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oklahoma State has pulled off three straight upset victories after last week’s victory against the Mountaineers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Oklahoma State returns home with their annual date with in-state rival Oklahoma coming up next week — so they may get caught looking ahead. They are getting outgained at home by -6.7 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been fortunate during their three-game upset run. These three favorites have failed to convert on seven of their eighth fourth down attempts which has often then given Oklahoma State a short field. The Cowboys also enjoy a +4 net turnover margin with seven takeaways in these three upset wins including a pick-six returned for a touchdown. Good luck never lasts — and as we discovered with North Texas’ second-half rally earlier today, even bad luck runs come to an end. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-28-23 |
Wyoming v. Boise State -4 | | 7-32 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). THE SITUATION: Boise State (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-30 upset loss at Colorado State as a 7.5-point favorite back on October 14th. Wyoming (5-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 34-27 loss at Air Force as a 13-point underdog on October 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Boise State should rebound with the benefit of their bye week to regroup and get healthy. Head coach Andy Avalos expects their two-time 1000-yard rusher to return to action for the first time since their season opener — and their offensive line will be as healthy as it has been all season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games. Boise State has been snake bit this year with three of their losses determined by only six combined points. They have endured a -5 net turnover margin this season — and the Cowboys have enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin this year so the Regression Gods could take care of two birds with one stone with an appearance in this game (to mesh and mangle a pair of metaphors). Wyoming has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. They have lost both of their games on the road while getting outscored by -14.0 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -46.0 net Yards-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games between Weeks Five and Nine — and Boise State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games between Weeks Five and Nine. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-28-23 |
Memphis v. North Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-42 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (186) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (185). THE SITUATION: North Texas (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-28 loss at Tulane as a 20-point underdog on Saturday. Memphis (5-2) has won two of their last three games after a 45-21 win at UAB as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas has outgained their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season — but three of their four losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They should be in store for another close game this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. North Texas has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Led by quarterback Chandler Rogers, the Mean Green have an explosive offense. The junior is completing 65% of his passes and averaging 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception. The Mean Green sport a balanced offense that has rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their games while passing for 297 or more yards in five games. They have generated 475.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after averaging 475 or more YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected higher-scoring games where the Total is at 63 or higher. In their three games at home, they are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game. Memphis got outgained last week by -29 net yards despite beating UAB by 24 points — they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. |
10-21-23 |
Duke v. Florida State -14 | | 20-38 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Florida State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 41-3 win against Syracuse as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. Duke (5-1) rebounded from their touchdown loss at home to Notre Dame with a 24-3 win at home against North Carolina State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State tends to feed off their momentum in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win against ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by double-digits against a conference opponent. They dominated the Orange by outgaining them by +274 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 42 of their last 66 home games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more yards. The biggest question I had in my offseason deep dive with this team was whether the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell. They led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. The defense returned six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — and I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. Senior quarterback Jordan Travis is an intriguing NFL prospect. He was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he had only five interceptions with only 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. So far this season, Travis has 1482 passing yards with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception. He is leading an offense that ranks second in the nation in Explosiveness. While I remain uncertain if this team can win a College Football Playoff game, they are definitely trending upward with 12 straight victories going back to last season. In three home games, they are generating 514.3 total YPG which is resulting in 48.7 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +37.7 PPG. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by 21 or more points against an ACC foe. I am not surprised by the Blue Devils hot start to the season. In my preseason deep dive, I speculated that it might be too easy and misguided to disregard the Blue Devils simply because they thrived on a soft schedule last season. They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. This contest will be their third game against a team ranked in the top 11 in the country at the time. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again — and they only have a +3 net turnover margin hits season. But the key to this team is junior quarterback Riley Leonard — and he remains questionable with an ankle injury. Head coach Mile Elko lists him as day-to-day. If he cannot play, freshman Henry Belin IV will get the start once again after he completed just 4 of 12 passes for 107 yards as the starter last week. It will not be pretty if Belin IV is starting in the hostile environment of Doak Campbell Stadium in a nationally televised night game — especially since he does not appear ready to move the ball with his arm. Let’s assume Leonard plays — but one of the reasons he is an NFL prospect is because of his mobility. His bum ankle will likely limit his ability to be a running threat with RPOs or elude the Florida State pass rush. He is completing only 33.3% of his passes under pressure with just a 3.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average.
FINAL TAKE: This is Duke’s just second game on the road all season after they easily beat Connecticut last month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. The Blue Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Duke-Florida State ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-21-23 |
South Carolina +7.5 v. Missouri | | 12-34 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (2-4) has lost two games in a row after their 41-37 upset loss to Florida as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Missouri (6-1) rebounded from their loss to LSU with a 38-21 upset win at Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina held a 37-27 midway through the fourth quarter against the Gators last week before surrendering two late touchdowns to give that game away. They should bounce back with a good effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to an SEC rival. The Gamecocks have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The biggest question I had for South Carolina in my preseason deep dive was whether they could continue the offensive momentum they established at the end of last season. They scored 132 combined points in their final three games which included upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson before a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Head coach Shane Beamer had the offensive playbook simplified late in the season which seems to have played a role in the increase in productivity. Six starters return on that side of the ball including senior quarterback Spencer Rattler who was brilliant down the stretch. The answer so far is mixed. After generating 378.8 total YPG last season, the Gamecocks are averaging 427.0 total YPG this year — but their scoring is down -3.2 PPG to 29.0 PPG. Rattler completed 23 of 30 passes for 313 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception in the losing effort last week. It is the defense that is letting Beamer’s team down as they are allowing 442.2 total YPG — and it is that side of the ball that has played a big role in their playing three straight Overs. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing three straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. The Tigers have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two Overs in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. My main question for this team in the offseason concerned whether this team will continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers had not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. So far, the results have been overwhelmingly positive with Mizzo pulling off upsets against Kansas State and Kentucky to win six of their first seven games. But they have also been fortunate to win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Rattler to keep the Gamecocks close in this one — the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a home favorite. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-14-23 |
Marshall v. Georgia State | | 24-41 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (4-1) looks to rebound from their 28-7 upset loss to Troy as a 1-point favorite on September 30th. Marshall (4-1) also lost their first game of the season in their previous game in a 48-41 loss at North Carolina State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia State should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They had covered the point spread in their two previous games — and they have covered the point sprees in 25 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while their game with the Trojans finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. My main question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether this program was trending in the wrong direction in the seventh-year under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points. One-third of the roster was turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger returned after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. With an upset win at Coastal Carolina part of their 4-1 record, it appears that Georgia State remains a perennial contender to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game while playing in a bowl game. The Panthers stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home gams when favored by three points or less. Marshall may be deflated after losing their opportunity to upset a Power Five Conference opponent. They have played three straight games decided by one possession — and they have a showdown looming with James Madison on Thursday. As it is, the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams combined for 60 or more points. Marshall’s defensive numbers are quite good in defending the pass as they rank in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed — but that may speak to the quality of their early schedule with games against Albany, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Old Dominion that are not known for their dynamic passing attacks. The Wolfpack passed for 265 yards against them while generating 401 total yards and those 48 points. The Thundering Herd have forced three turnovers in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after forcing two or more turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after forcing three or more turnovers in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will have revenge on their mind from a 28-23 loss at Marshall last November 26th. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Marshall-Georgia State ESPN2 Special with the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-14-23 |
Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). THE SITUATION: Air Force (5-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 49-10 thrashing of San Diego State as a 10.5-point favorite on September 30th. Wyoming (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-19 upset victory against Fresno State as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: After upsetting the undefeated Bulldogs last week despite only outgaining them by five net yards, look for the Cowboys to experience a big letdown this week. We were on this Wyoming team last week — but they have been fortunate to beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State in wild endings despite getting outgained in yardage in both games. The Cowboys are only outscoring their opponents by +2.0 net Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -49.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after winning three of their last four games including a failure to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time this season after playing five of their first six games at War Memorial in Laramie where they enjoy an altitude edge. They may be without their top running back Harrison Waylee for this contest after he left last week’s game with a lower-body injury. While the Cowboys played Texas tough in their previous road game, this is a bad matchup for them against the Air Force spread triple option. Wyoming gave up more than 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry against New Mexico and Appalachian State generated 217 rushing yards against them. They also rank 91st in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed that measures drives of at least ten plays and 50 yards that take at least three minutes off the clock. This Air Force offense is dominant — they rank second in the nation in Points-Per-Drive and they lead the nation in Finishing Drives. Their rushing attack ranks seventh in Success Rate fueled by an experienced offensive line that ranks sixth in the FBS in Line Yards. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory against a conference foe. They have rushed for at least 287 yards in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. The Air Force defense has also been outstanding as they have held their five opponents to just 12.2 PPG — and they rank sixth in the nation by allowing only 4.27 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons’ defense ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Quality Drive Allowed and 18th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive.
FINAL TAKE: Air Force will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Laramie against Wyoming by a 17-14 score as a 16.5-point favorite on September 16th last season. Laying double-digits with a methodical service academy can be dangerous — but this Falcons team has won all five of their games by double-digits with four of those victories by 18 or more points. They have been held below 39 points only once this season while scoring 39, 45, and 49 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month is with the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-14-23 |
Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | | 21-38 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 38-21 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite back on September 30th. Louisville (1-4) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-20 upset win at home against Notre Dame as a 6-point underdog last Saturday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville comes off their emotional high-profile victory against the Fighting Irish — but I expect a letdown for them tonight. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they outrushed the Irish by 141 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their previous opponent by +125 or more Yards-Per-Game. The main question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded how close could the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense. Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels. The Louisville faithful could not be more thrilled with the results with the perfect 6-0 start with a victory against Notre Dame — but dark clouds are looming. Plummer continues to be too loose with the football with six interceptions already. The Cardinals still enjoy a +14 net turnover margin this year — but that clip is simply unsustainable. This will be only their second true road game this season with two of their away games played on neutral fields. While they are overachieving ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections by +15.1 points when playing at home this season, they are underachieving the SP+ projections by -8.0 points when they are on the road. Now here comes an angry Pittsburgh team with an extra week to rest and prepare — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. The main offseason question I had for Pitt was whether head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program — or is this a football team that will take a step or two back this season. The Panthers have won 20 games in the last two years after following up their Kenny Pickett ACC Championship team with a 9-4 record last season. But after losing seven players on defense to the NFL, they only return 12 starters this year. The last time Pitt had won more than eight games before this current run was back in 2009 when they went 10-3. Narduzzi was aggressive in the transfer portal again after bringing in Kedon Slovis from USC last season (to up-and-down results) — senior Phil Jurkovec comes in after 24 starts at Boston College and sophomore Christian Veilleux enters the program after being a blue-chip recruit at Penn State. Unfortunately, this team has underachieved SP+ projections in each of their games this season — so Narduzzi used the bye week to make some fundamental changes. One of the tweaks we know about is that he is benching Jurkovec at quarterback and tapping Veilleux as his new starter under center. After scoring 23.4 PPG, things cannot get much worse on that side of the ball. The element of surprise should help the Panthers tonight.
FINAL TAKE: It is surprising that a Narduzzi-coached defense is not forcing more than turnovers — they have only four takeaways this season and not more than one in a game yet. Forcing turnovers was likely another area of emphasis in the last two weeks — especially with Plummer vulnerable to throwing interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 81 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two games in a row — and they covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in four straight games. 8* CFB Louisville-Pittsburgh on The CW Special with Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-14-23 |
UNLV v. Nevada +7.5 | | 45-27 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 37 m | Show |
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-5) remained winless this season after their 27-9 loss at Fresno State as a 25.5-point underdog back on September 30th. UNLV (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-20 victory against Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Nevada has endured one of the more difficult schedules this season with games at USC, Fresno State, and a feisty Texas State team this season along with a home game against Kansas. They were underdogs of 17 or more points in all four of those contests. The main question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. Last year’s team continued to improve as the season moved on — and I expect the same this year. Coming off a bye week and now hosting an in-state rival, I expect a spirited effort. Nevada has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have played four straight Unders after USC put up 66 points against them in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. And while the Wolf Pack have allowed exactly 475.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing 475 YPG in their previous three games. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. The main offseason question I had for UNLV was if first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas, The Rebels have not played in a bowl game since 2013 — and they have posted a 29-74 record in the last ten seasons. Odom is a good football who had some competitive teams in his four-year run as the head coach at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas in the last three seasons. His vast experience in the SEC offers some much-needed gravitas to this program. So far so good for this team by overachieving expectations with a 4-1 record with their lone loss being at Michigan. But Odom has taken advantage of a light schedule that has included an FCS program (Bryant), UTEP, and an underachieving Vanderbilt team before the conference win against the Rainbow Warriors. Kudos to the Rebels for winning the turnover battle in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight games. And while they have held their last three opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after holding at least two straight opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.
FINAL TAKE: I like this spot for the Wolf Pack who I suspect are undervalued coming into this game — and the Rebels are probably a bit overvalued with their nice start. The preseason expectations for these teams were about the same — and UNLV is using a freshman Jayden Maiava under center which can lead to some issues when playing on the road in hostile environments. Nevada will be motivated to avenge a 27-22 loss at UNLV last November — and the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-07-23 |
Oregon State v. California +9.5 | | 52-40 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). THE SITUATION: California (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win at Arizona State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (4-1) comes off a 21-7 win against Utah as a 4-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California survived their game with the Sun Devils despite getting outgained by -104 net yards in that game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last contest. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Cal has not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after facing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The biggest question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether head coach Justin Wilcox’s aggressiveness in the transfer portal would lead to the results on the field that would get him off the hot seat in his seventh year with the program. Bringing in transfer players at a place like Cal with its high academic standards is tough — but the Admissions Department has been more engaged in working with the Athletic Department in accommodating the admission and enrollment of potential transfers. After three straight losing seasons, Wilcox needed to change something else besides changing the offensive coordinator, although he did do that for the third straight year as well. Wilcox tapped 19 transfers overall with seven of these players being former blue-chippers like sophomore quarterback Sam Jackson V who comes over from TCU where he was a four-star recruit. With these players joining 17 starters from last year, the Golden Bears have the opportunity to turn around a program that finished 4-8 last season. The results on the field so far have been encouraging with their two losses being when they were underdogs against Auburn and then at Washington. My biggest question for Oregon State in the preseason was whether they could take the next step and challenge for a Pac-12 Championship. They won their final four games of the season including a 30-3 dominant win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl to complete a 10-3 campaign. But all three of their losses were in conference play where they finished a solid 6-3 — but they lost to both USC and Washington by a field goal and got thumped by Utah by a 42-16 score in Salt Lake City. Head coach Jonathan Smith has 13 starters back in his sixth year with the program — and he may have scored an upgrade at quarterback with D.J. Uigalelei transferring in from Clemson. The former five-star recruit had a 22-9 career record as a starter for the Tigers. But despite a good opening game at San Jose State, Uigalelei has demonstrated the frustrating form that led to his being benched by Dabo Swinney in the ACC Championship Game and then the Tigers’ bowl game. He has completed only 50.6% of his passes in his last three games while throwing four interceptions. The Beavers are very tough to beat in Corvallis — but they hit the road again after getting upset by Washington State in their last game away from home three weeks ago. Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite of no more than seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Cal has been a dangerous underdog under Wilcox. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-07-23 |
Fresno State v. Wyoming +6 | Top | 19-24 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-26 win against New Mexico as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-9 win against Nevada as a 25.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s lone this season was at Texas where they were tied with the Longhorns in the fourth quarter before they pulled away late for a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Cowboys returned home where they beat Appalachian State and then the Lobos last week. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games at home. The question I had in my preseason deep dive for this team was whether this was the year that the Cowboys took the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title. Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. The Cowboys conclude their three-game home stand tonight at War Memorial Stadium where they are very tough to beat. Wyoming has a 41-21 straight-up record at home in the last ten seasons after their 4-0 start this year which includes that win against Appalachian State as well as an upset win against Texas Tech in overtime. They are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 23.8 PPG. They have a nice weapon developing at running back in junior Harrison Waylee. In his three games since taking the field this season, the Northern Illinois transfer has rushed for 457 yards with an 8.6 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Bohl’s team has also forced at least one turnover in each of their games — and they have won the turnover battle in their last two contests. Wyoming has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in two straight games. After two straight games at home, Fresno State goes back on the road for the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bulldogs generated 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Wolf Pack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. They averaged 7.66 YPP in their previous game against Kent State as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last two games. Fresno State is considered the best Group of Five team by many observers after outgaining their last three opponents by +197 net Yards-Per-Game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last three opponents by +125 or more YPG. The main question I had for the Bulldogs in the offseason was how close could they come to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida via the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. So far so good. Keene has won the quarterback job and ranks 11th in the nation with 1474 passing yards. The Bulldogs have victories against two Power Five conference programs in Purdue and Arizona State — but both of those teams are rebuilding under first-year head coaches. This game is just the third time this season that Fresno State is not favored by 25 or more points.
FINAL TAKE: This showdown has definitely been on the mind of Bohl after his team has been shut out in two straight years against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 282.0 total YPG this year — but the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents not allowing more than 280 YPG. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-07-23 |
Washington State v. UCLA -3.5 | | 17-25 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 19 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-1) was on a three-game winning streak to begin the season before a 14-7 loss at Utah as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago on September 23rd. Washington State (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 38-35 upset win against Oregon State as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: UCLA outgained the Utes in that loss by a 243-219 yardage margin — but they could not overcome a 21-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Freshman Dante Moore played his worst game in his young career by completing only 15 of 38 passes for 234 yards with that pick-six. Expect the former five-star recruit to play better this week with an extra week off to digest his experience against the stout Utah defense. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival under head coach Chip Kelly. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game in the Kelly era. It appears that Kelly may have finally found his man to run the defense with first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn after years of difficulties with Jerry Azzinaro and then Bill McGovern last year as the DC. Lynn was the Baltimore Ravens safeties coach last season — and his defense this season leads the nation by allowing only 3.75 Yards-Per-Play while ranking second in the nation in Points Allowed Per Drive. They have held their last three opponents to 236.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games in October. Washington State is riding high after their upset win against the Beavers with quarterback Cameron Ward being in the Heisman Trophy discussion. The Cougars offense has been clicking by generating at least 8.1 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging 7.25 or more YPP in two straight games. They have also raced out to at least two touchdown leads at halftime in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding a double-digit lead in three straight games. This team may suffer an emotional letdown now — especially with the extra week off. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games with an extra week off under head coach Jake Dickert.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars score 45.8 PPG this season — but Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in his career against teams who average 37 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-07-23 |
LSU -6.5 v. Missouri | | 49-39 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 12 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 55-49 upset loss at Mississippi as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Missouri (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-21 win at Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LSU MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the LSU Tigers who began the year with National Championship aspirations. But expect them to take out their frustrations on Missouri. LSU has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games on the road after a straight-up loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. LSU has been a sieve on defense after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last contest. They are getting great play from quarterback Jayden Daniels who ranks ninth in the nation in Total QBR — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. Missouri dominated the Commodores last week by outgaining them by +232 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +225 or more YPG. Mizzou has played three straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. This team has been one of the surprises of the season with sophomore wide receiver Luther Burden III as their breakout star. But this is just the second time they have been an underdog this season — and while they upset Kansas State at home earlier this year, that Wildcats team was woeful last night in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. LSU will be the best team they have played this season — by far.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points — and LSU has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB LSU-Missouri ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-04-23 |
Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -2.5 | | 45-30 |
Loss | -117 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-4) has lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. Jacksonville State (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-28 upset win in overtime at Sam Houston State as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee dug themselves a hole last week by going into halftime trailing by a 23-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by 17 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. And while this team has not covered the point spread in three straight games while only covering once all season, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether or not the Blue Raiders would be a better team this season but fail to replicate or improve on their 8-5 record. Head coach Rick Stockstill’s squad pulled off five upsets and benefited from a +12 net turnover margin which made up for a -44 net Yards-Per-Game mark in Conference USA play. The defense has eight starters back along with 12 of the 15 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense has five starters back along with sophomore Nick Vattiato who was the Conference USA Freshman of the Year in 2021 while earning MVP in the Bahamas Bowl before only playing in two games last season with senior Chase Cunningham returning from injury to reclaim the starting job. They did win five of their last six games including a 25-23 win against San Diego State in Hawai’i Bowl. Turnovers are playing a role with Middle Tennessee sporting a -3 net turnover margin — and they have committed five turnovers in their last two games. They had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin including four straight point spread covers after a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Blue Raiders have also had a tough opening schedule that started with road trips to Alabama and Missouri. Jacksonville State has benefited from a soft early schedule with four Group of Five opponents and an FCS school. They trailed by a 21-7 score at Sam Houston State before forcing overtime where they pulled that game out. They were very fortunate to win that game after getting outgained by -42 net yards. They gave up 299 yards in the air to the Bearkats — so Middle Tennessee quarterback Nick Vattiato should have a good game. The sophomore completed 27 of 45 passes for 252 yards in a losing effort to the Hilltoppers last week. The biggest question I had for Jacksonville State in the offseason regarded whether this FBS debutant would find immediate success like James Madison last year. In going 9-2 last season, only one of their opponents was an FBS opponent. The defense lost three of their top six tacklers and now faces a full FBS schedule while playing in Conference USA. Their defense has put up gaudy numbers against UTEP, Eastern Michigan, and Eastern Tennessee State — but that may speak more to the quality of those opponents. Coastal Carolina and Sam Houston State generated 399 and 435 yards against them.
FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. 8* CFB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-30-23 |
Missouri v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 38-21 |
Loss | -108 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-3) has lost three games in a row after their 45-28 loss at home to Kentucky as a 13-point underdog last Saturday. Missouri (4-0) is unbeaten this season after their 34-27 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt was only outgained by 37 net yards to the Wildcats — but they surrendered two defensive touchdowns from interceptions that made the difference in the game. This Commodores team is actually outscoring and outgaining their opponents in yardage — but they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. Additionally, the Commodores have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have surrendered at least 36 points in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing 31 or more points in three straight games. The biggest question I had with this team in my preseason deep dive was whether teaching and coaching player development could overcome the hits they keep taking in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team has continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Missouri is unbeaten — but three of their four victories have been by seven points or less. They had the fewest Big Plays in the nation after their first two games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee — and they beat the Blue Raiders by only four points despite being a three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played two straight Overs, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they would continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. After two subpar games, junior quarterback Brady Cook has had two good games in a row — but now this will be Missouri’s first true road game in a hostile environment this season. The Tigers also have a showdown against LSU on deck next week — so the look-ahead issue could be a factor. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Commodores will be looking to avenge a narrow 17-14 loss at Missouri last October — and Lea led his team to scrappy upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Missouri had four losses against SEC competition by 18 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 10.5-21 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-30-23 |
Illinois +1 v. Purdue | | 19-44 |
Loss | -115 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (181) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (182). THE SITUATION: Illinois (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-17 win against Florida Atlantic as a 16.5-point favorite last Saturday. Purdue (1-3) has lost two games in a row after a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Illini’s win against FAU finished Under the Total that was in the 45.5-point range. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Illinois is playing low-scoring games with their last three games going Under the Total which has to please head coach Bret Bielema who would prefer to grind out lower-scoring games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after playing two Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing three straight Unders. My biggest question for this team in my preseason deep dive was considering how close could the Fighting Illini get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG? Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin in his third year with the program (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He lost four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It was going to be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. So far this season, the turnover luck from last year has completely flipped as they have a -5 net turnover with five of their ten turnovers taking place against Penn State. But their two losses to Kansas and the Nittany Lions were against teams currently posting a combined 8-0 record. The Illini come off their best defensive game of the season by holding the Owls to just 353 total yards. Purdue has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My main question for the Boilermakers in the offseason was how first-year head coach Ryan Walters would mesh with his offensive coordinator Graham Harrell who will be installing an Air Raid offense he previously oversaw at West Virginia and USC. Walters previously served as the defensive coordinator at Missouri and then Illinois last year which were mostly defensive-oriented smash-mouth teams. Walters’ last season with Missouri was in the first season under Eliah Drinkwitz in 2020 when he installed a no-huddle attack — and that Mizzo team gave up 49.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Walters was not retained the next season which allowed Bielema to snatch him up when he took the Illinois head coaching job in 2021. So far, this marriage is not working. In their three games at home, the Boilermakers are allowing 444.3 total YPG which has resulted in them spotting their guests 37.3 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Illinois Fighting Illini (181) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (182). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-29-23 |
Cincinnati +1 v. BYU | | 27-35 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-6 loss to Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (3-1) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at Kansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati failed to deliver in the Red Zone last week or they could have upset the Sooners — they scored only six points in their six trips inside Oklahoma’s 20-yard line and they scored only a field goal in their final four trips inside the Red Zone. And in their loss to Miami (OH) the previous week, they outgained the Redhawks by a 538-358 margin in yards and on the first down battle by a 30-16 margin but still managed to lose the game by a 31-24 score. My biggest question regarding this team in the preseason was whether former head coach Luke Fickell left this program at just the right time. After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters are back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. Now the Bearcats make their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. But Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than six points in their last game — and Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Satterfield’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. BYU had two Kedon Slovis interceptions returned for touchdowns in their loss to Kansas last week. After committing 16 turnover-worthy plays last season playing at Pittsburgh, he already has six turnover-worthy plays this season. The Cougars' game-calling is not helping him out either — as they rank 120th in the nation in Rushing Rate while ranking last in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate. The BYU offensive line was completely remade in the offseason with their two returning starters changing positions to accommodate transfers and new starters. It’s not working — they are allowing a pressure rate of 33.3% of their snaps. The Cougars rank 125th in the nation in Line Yards — and this all results in them ranking 126th in the FBS in Success Rate Overall. My question for this team in my offseason deep-dive was whether the Cougars would have the physicality on their roster to sustain a full season of Power-Five conference play. Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team began their first season in the Big 12 with 15 starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-5. They closed out the year by winning four games in a row culminating in a 24-23 victory against SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only five of their games were against Power-Five conference opponents or Notre Dame last year — and they went 2-3 in those five contests. Depth is a big concern for the roster — and they only returned two starters apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. BYU return home after playing their last two games on the road with the trip beginning with a 38-31 win at Arkansas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after a two-game road stand. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of 19 home games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: In the Cougars' last 9 home games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-29-23 |
Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | | 13-10 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (114) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (113). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (3-1) comes off a 24-21 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisville (4-0) has won their first four games after their 56-28 win against Boston College as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolfpack have not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four games in a row. They are riding a two-game winning streak coming into this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning but failing to cover the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. My question for this team before the season started regarded whether or not they would pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator. Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons. So far this season, Doeren has not given Onae the green light to unleash their passing attack as they are running the ball 65% of the time -- and Armstrong ranks 110th in Yards-Per-Attempt. But now hosting this Cardinals team that ranks 74th in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Allowed — and they have allowed all three of their FBS opponents to pass for at least 295 yards. Louisville has won both of their games this season decided by one scoring possession — although they did get outgained by Georgia Tech in their opener. The question I have for this team is how close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaced NFL players on all three levels. Louisville has played two games on a neutral field already this year — but this will be their first game played in a hostile environment. The Cardinals gained 582 yards last week against the Eagles — but Brohm’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 14 games after they gained at least 575 yards in their last game. Additionally, Brohm’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina State will be looking to avenge their 25-10 loss at Louisville as a 4-point underdog last November 19th. They did beat the Cardinals by a 28-13 score the last time they hosted them at Carter-Finley Stadium back on October 30th 2021. 8* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (114) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (113). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-23-23 |
Iowa v. Penn State -14 | | 0-31 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (426) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (425). THE SITUATION: Penn State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after their 30-13 victory at Illinois as a 14-point road favorite last Saturday. Iowa (3-0) has won their first three contests after their 41-10 win against Western Michigan as a 28.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The question for the Hawkeyes entering the season was where they could develop an even mid-level offensive attack. They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG. The senior Ferentz turned to Michigan for help by bringing senior quarterback Cade McNamara and senior tight end Erick All as transfers to help jumpstart the offense. But there are reasons why both players were not first-stringers for the Wolverines last year. The Iowa defense should once again be thought with 10 of the 16 players who logged at least 200 snaps returning. They were second in the nation by allowing only 13.3 PPG and 270.8 YPG. But Ferentz’s style of play on offense helps the defense — so significant changes on offense could disrupt the formula on defense. Iowa scored only 24 and 20 points in their opening two games against Utah State and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes finally toppled their offensive coordinator’s necessary quota against the Broncos last week — but it was not because of their passing attack. McNamara only completed 9 of 19 passes for 103 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He is a gamer who led Michigan to the College Football Playoff two years ago — but the Wolverines coaching staff moved off him for J.J. McCarthy because there is a ceiling to his potential given his arm talent. To make the situation even worse, McNamara will be undermanned this week due to injuries. Iowa will be without their top two running backs, Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams, as well as their top tight end Luke Lachey for this game. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 53 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in two straight games. Penn State has covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after a victory on the road against a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. With two of the four College Football Playoff teams in their division in the Big Ten conference, can the Nittany Lions reach the elite level necessary to compete against Ohio State and Michigan? They have lost nine of their last 12 games against the traditional Big Two in the conference since 2017. Even worse, they are winless in their last ten games against top-ten opponents in the last six seasons under head coach James Franklin. The hope is that the team is ready to take this final step with the offense turning over to sophomore blue-chipper Drew Allar at quarterback after four years of the capable if unspectacular Sean Clifford under center. Allar struggled in his first start on the road in his career last week by completing only 16 of 33 passes for 208 yards. But the offense still generated 483 total yards against the Illini with Singleton and fellow sophomore Kaytron Allen leading a rushing attack that ran for 164 yards. The Hawkeyes' run defense may not be quite as stout this season — they rank 69th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and they rank 74th in Line Yards Allowed.
FINAL TAKE: With rain expected with winds up to 10 miles per hour, the respective rushing attacks may be even more important tonight -- and that gives the edge to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when favored in the 10.5-14 point range after their late cover with Franklin’s aggressive late game management. 10* CFB Iowa-Penn State CBS-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (426) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (425). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-23-23 |
Ohio State -3 v. Notre Dame | | 17-14 |
Push | 0 | 0 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (423) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (424). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after their 63-10 win against Western Kentucky as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (4-0) has won their opening four games of the season with their 41-17 win against Central Michigan as a 35-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: The Fighting Irish have dominated their first four opponents by scoring at least 41 points in all four of their games — and they have generated at least 456 yards in their last three games after putting up 444 total yards in Ireland against Navy in their opening game of the season. But Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring 31 or more points in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after gaining at least 40 yards in three straight games. Can the Fighting Irish compete for the College Football Playoff by repeating the power rushing attack they successfully deployed last season —and if not, is adding Sam Hartman at quarterback enough to transform the passing attack against elite competition? The Irish lost their first three games in the first three games under head coach Marcus Freeman last season with them only scoring 23.7 PPG and generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Play in their first six games. But after switching to a power-rushing attack, the Fighting Irish scored 38.7 PPG and averaged 6.2 YPP — and they returned two great starting tackles to serve as the foundation for this approach. Hartman offers the hope of a more sophisticated passing attack after passing for more than 300 YPG in the last two seasons for Wake Forest. But is there a true number-one wide receiver option from a unit that ranked sixth-to-last in receptions of 40 or more yards last year? Ohio State covered the point spread for the first time this season with their 53-point win against the Hilltoppers last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. After their two-game home stand, they go back on the road for the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a two-game home stand. Head coach Ryan Day has reached the College Football Playoff in three of the first four years under his leadership — but is his zeal to mold a team prepared for those potential games making the Buckeyes vulnerable against their biggest obstacle to winning a Big Ten Championship? Michigan has beaten them by 15 and 22 points in the last two seasons by controlling both sides of the line of scrimmage. Previous head coach Urban Meyer has subtly suggested that the program has gotten softer regarding their physicality with all the speed on the roster — and Day is certainly aware of this criticism. After four years of Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud under center, Day has to find a new quarterback this season amidst this challenge. And attention must be paid to their defense that allowed 87 combined points and a whopping 8.9 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games against the Wolverines and then Georgia in the playoff semifinals. The progress on defense is very encouraging after Ohio State has given up only 20 combined points this season. The Buckeyes rank 10th in the nation in Finishing Drives Allowed. The development at quarterback has been slower — but junior Kyle McCord comes off his best game of the season as he completed 19 of 23 passes for 318 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not have the roster talent of the Georgia and Michigan teams that have handed them their most recent three losses going to September of 2021. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games on the road when favored by up to seven points — and the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 8* CFB Ohio State-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (423) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (424). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-23-23 |
BYU v. Kansas -8.5 | | 27-38 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (344) plus the points versus BYU (343). THE SITUATION: Kansas (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 31-24 victory at Nevada as a 28-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (3-0) remained unbeaten this year after their 38-31 upset win at Arkansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas dominated the Wolf Pack last week but had trouble translating red zone trips into more points — they gained 442 total yards of offense and outgained Nevada by +179 net yards. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after winning two or more games in a row. BYU rallied from a 24-21 halftime deficit in their upset win in Fayetteville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after allowing 24 or more points in the first half in their last game. They pulled off the upset victory despite getting outgained by -143 net yards by the Razorbacks. BYU committed just their second turnover of the season last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road for the second straight game this week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing on the road in their last game. They have scored 79 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: BYU faces their inaugural game as a member of the Big 12 against a conference rival in this one — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas Jayhawks (344) plus the points versus BYU (343). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-23-23 |
Florida State v. Clemson +2.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Loss | -115 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). THE SITUATION: Clemson (2-1) has won two straight games after their 48-14 win against FAU as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 31-29 win at Boston College as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson will be circling the wagons for this contest as they look to redeem themselves from their Week One upset loss at Duke and maintain their College Football Playoff hopes alive. This game will be just the second time in the Tigers' last 60 home games at Memorial Stadium where they will be an underdog. After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. Klubnik remains a work in progress, especially with the vertical passing game — but Clemson should be able to move the ball on the ground to set up advantageous passing situations. Running backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah have combined to generate 130.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Shipley continues to be one of the best running backs in the country by averaging 6.1 YPC and producing +3.6 YPC after contact. This duo has helped the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. The Seminoles have been vulnerable with their run defense. They rank 122nd in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed after Boston College ran for 150 yards against them. Stopping the run was an issue for this team last season as well as they ranked 74th in the nation by allowing 156.4 rushing YPG — and they ranked 63rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Clemson defense has only allowed 19.7 Points-Per-Game and 246.7 YPG. While Duke quarterback Riley Leonard burned them on a 44-yard rushing touchdown in their opener, they did hold the NFL prospect to just 175 passing yards on his 38 attempts. The Tigers rank 15th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 23rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank eighth in Havoc Rate. Clemson has only allowed 366 total yards in their last two games since the loss to the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 200 total YPG in their last two contests. And while their last two games have gone Over the Total with at least 62 combined points scored in both games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Florida State wants to believe the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell after their opening week upset victory against LSU in Orlando. Last year, they led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. While they looked great against LSU and then Southern Mississippi, they got outgained by a mediocre Eagles team last week by -107 net yards with their defense giving up 457 total yards. That contest was their first game on the road — and they stay on the road this week for perhaps their biggest game in the Norvell era. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win on the road by three points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 8 road games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Have the Seminoles turned just one corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention? They have lost seven straight games to the Tigers — and the last time they beat them in Memorial Stadium was 2013. Now they are favored which is a rare motivational opportunity for Dabo Swinney in his sixteenth year running the program — and Clemson has covered the point spread in 11 of the 15 home games as an underdog against a ranked opponent under his leadership. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-21-23 |
Georgia State +7 v. Coastal Carolina | | 30-17 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season with their 41-25 victory at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (2-1) has won two straight games after their 66-7 victory against Duquesne as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And while that game finished Over the 56-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a game that finished Over the Total. After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, will this program experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty? The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Gams and 101s in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. While they held the Dukes to only 347 yards last week, their two FBS opponents, UCLA and Jacksonville State both generated more than 400 yards against them. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. Is this team trending in the wrong direction in the seventh season under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points? One-third of the roster has turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is back after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. So far so good — but this will be the team’s biggest test so far this season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they habit covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the pint spray in 8 of their last 9 games when favored in the 3.5-10 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed the 3.5-7 point range. 8* CFB Georgia State-Coastal Carolina ESPN Special with the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-16-23 |
Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Nebraska | | 11-35 |
Loss | -105 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (183) plus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (184). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 14-11 upset loss at home to Southern Illinois as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Nebraska (0-2) is winless so far this season after their 36-14 loss at Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois did outgain the Salukis last week by a 360-219 margin in yardage — but a -3 net turnover margin did them in. The Huskies have been resilient under head coach Thomas Hammock as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Southern Illinois to just 297 total yards including only 71 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than 75 or fewer rushing yards. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Huskies are a team that returned 15 starters from a 3-9 squad last year that vastly underachieved preseason expectations with injuries playing a big role. No player on offense started all 12 of their games. They go back on the road where they upset Boston College earlier this season — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road. Nebraska remains a mess under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road by three or more touchdowns. Their starting quarterback Jeff Sims is questionable in this game with an ankle injury — and while he has been a turnover machine in his career, the next man up is redshirt freshman Heinrich Haarbeerg is very raw as a passer.
FINAL TAKE: Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored. Northern Illinois has covered the points spread in 13 of their 17 road games as an underdog under Hammock. Expect a close game. 8* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Northern Illinois Huskies (183) plus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (184). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-16-23 |
Iowa State v. Ohio +3 | Top | 7-10 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 37 m | Show |
At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). THE SITUATION: Ohio (2-1) enters this game coming off a 17-10 upset victory at Florida Atlantic as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (1-1) comes off a 20-13 loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State’s program was rocked by its sports gambling scandal last month which has removed several players on the roster including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers and starting Jirehl Brock (who left the team amidst the allegations). Head coach Matt Campbell has been forced to make adjustments on the fly given these unusual circumstances. Second-year freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has inherited the offense but is completing only 58% of his passes while passing for only 316 yards in his two starts. Sophomore Cartevious Norton has become the lead running back but is only generating 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry with 108 rushing yards in his two games. The Cyclones are averaging only 3.8 YPC as a team. Iowa State has been a reliable underdog in Campbell’s eight years at the helm of this program — but they have not met expectations when placed in the role as the favorite. Iowa State has faced to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. This is the Cyclones' first road game in a hostile environment this season — and it is a sandwich game situation coming off their rivalry game with the Hawkeyes before their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week. Their one turnover last week was their lone giveaway of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Campbell was hoping to have 15 starters back from last year’s team that underachieved with a 4-8 record (despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game) — but the gambling scandal has changed expectations. The overall athleticism on the roster was already a question before losing their starting quarterback and running back. Red zone efficiency and giveaways held them back last season — and that is not a good sign in their first road game of this campaign. The books expect a lower-scoring game with the Total set in the low-40s. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Now here comes an Ohio team with 15 starters back from their 10-4 squad that bear Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl by a 30-27 score. If not for fifth-year senior Kurtis Rourke getting injured in their opening week game at San Diego State, the Bobcats could be undefeated. Instead, they lost on the road against the Aztecs by a 20-13 score as a 2-point underdog. Rourke missed their second game which they still won by a 27-10 score against Long Island. The reigning Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year returned last week and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards in leading Ohio to the upset road win at FAU. Head coach Tim Albin to building a culture with this program — and it starts on the defensive side of the ball. After the Bobcats gave up 561 Yards-Per-Game in their first six games last year, they held their final seven regular season opponents to 331 YPG. This improved defensive play has carried over as they are only giving up 233 YPG — and their three opponents have been held to -162 YPG below their season averages. While some football teams experience an emotional letdown after an upset win, these triumphs tend to provide jolts of energy and confidence to the Ohio players as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: With their loss to Iowa last week, Iowa State has now lost 11 of their last 12 games decided by one scoring possession. The Regression Gods may have decided this program gets what they deserve given these gambling revelations. Campbell may have inadvertently fostered a losing culture. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-15-23 |
Utah State v. Air Force -8.5 | Top | 21-39 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-0) has opened the season undefeated after a 13-3 victory against Sam Houston State in Houston’s NRG Stadium as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Utah State (1-1) won their first game of the season with a 78-28 win against Idaho State as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Air Force held a feisty Sam Houston State team to just 80 total yards of offense last week with the Bearkats averaging only 1.82 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their previous opponent to 3.25 or fewer YPP. Air Force led the nation last season by allowing only 254.4 Yards-Per-Game — and they return eight starters from that group along with nine of the 13 players that played at least 250 snaps last season. They held their opponents to -94 YPG below their season average. Even more accolades for the defense under head coach Troy Calhoun: they ranked ninth in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed; they ranked third in the FBS in third-down defense while holding their last two opponents, San Diego State and Baylor, to going 0-for-21; they ranked fourth in the FBS with opponents only scoring touchdowns in 43% of their trips inside the red zone. So far this season, they rank tenth in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They held Robert Morris to just 165 yards in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Air Force has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. The Falcons return 13 starters — a high number for a service academy program — from their team that finished 10-3 after beating Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-15 score. While they were only 5-3 in conference play, they outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +106 net YPG. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier has been solid operating the spread option rushing attack — he ran for 65 yards last week while Air Force held the ball for 36:38 minutes. While he does not throw the ball often, this offense does lead the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing attack when they do chuck it. The Falcons return home where they have a 73-24 record under Calhoun — and they have a 43-10 record there since 2014. Air Force has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Utah State rebounded from their 24-14 loss at Iowa by dominating an FCS program — but Idaho State did generate 424 total yards against them. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored. They did rush for 380 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. This team returns only nine starters from the group that finished 6-7 last year — and that group benefited from winning all four of their games decided by one score possession. They got outgained in Mountain West Conference play despite a 5-3 conference record in the second season under head coach Blake Anderson. His teams going back to Arkansas State having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home by four or more touchdowns. And while the Aggies gained 591 yards last week, Anderson’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after generating 575 or more yards in their last game. Utah State ranks only 87th in the FBS in Opponent Defensive Success Rate Allowed while ranking 66th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed. When that mediocrity gets combined with the Aggies' fast pace on offense — they rank 20th in fewest seconds per play this season, their defense may get gassed when the offense goes three-and-out in a quick series which then puts their defense back on the field.
FINAL TAKE: Anderson has pulled off two straight upsets against the Air Force in his two previous seasons at Utah State. After the Aggies gave up 437 rushing yards in a 49-45 barn-burner two years ago, they held the Falcons to 265 rushing yards on 54 carries last year — a 4.91 Yards-Per-Carry average as opposed to the 6.94 YPC they gave up in 2021. But Anderson had extra days to prepare for last year’s contest after playing BYU on a Thursday night the previous week. Now Utah State travels to Falcon Stadium on a short week with Calhoun certainly playing up the consecutive upset losses to this opponent. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-09-23 |
Auburn v. California +5 | | 14-10 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (394) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (393). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) looks to build off their 58-21 victory at North Texas as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) opened their season with a 59-14 win against Massachusetts as a 35.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Mean Green by outgaining them by a 669 to 225 clip in yardage. This is a team that returned 17 starters from a group that settled for a 4-8 record last year. Cal lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession — so a few breaks going their way could have resulted in a bowl game for them head coach Justin Wilcox. He added 17 transfers in the offseason including seven former blue-chippers with the pressure on to get back to the postseason. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games at Memorial Stadium. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. And while they outrushed the Minutemen by 152 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Tigers generated 7.42 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. Hugh Freeze takes over the program this season that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September. Auburn has also lost and failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road openers to a new season.
FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (394) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (393). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-09-23 |
Oregon v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 38-30 |
Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-33 upset loss in double-overtime at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (1-0) began their season with an 81-7 victory against Portland State as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: A 78-minute delay to the start of the game in Laramie against the Cowboys did not help Texas Tech’s cause last week. The Red Raiders got inside Wyoming’s 40-yard line seven times in that game but only scored 20 points from those drives. They missed three field goals and outgained the Cowboys in yardage by a 433-351 margin but could not survive the second overtime. Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record last season simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury. He has an 8-2 record as a starter for the Red Raiders after last week’s loss — but he did complete 31 of 47 passes for 338 yards with three touchdown passes. And the Texas Tech defense played well enough after holding Wyoming to just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home to Jones AT&T Stadium where they hold a big edge in front of their loud fans. They were 6-1 at home last year while covering the point spread in 5 of those games. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Oregon comes off a laugher against an FBS opponent — but the question remains: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. But Nix only accrued 16 passes that were designed as “Big Time” throws last season in a dink-and-dunk passing game. Only 29% of Oregon’s passes last season were of more than ten air-yards last year — and that is a big reason why they ranked 128th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon got into many shootouts last year — but their lack of explosiveness makes blowout victories unlikely especially when playing away from Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and Shough will have a chip on his shoulder to face his former team before transferring to Lubbock. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). Best of luck for us — Frank. |