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At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (110) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (109). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-2) has won six straight games after their 18-15 upset win at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (2-6) has lost two games in a row after their 30-29 loss at home in overtime as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver rolling with six straight victories in a run where they exceeded point spread expectations in four of those games — and head coach Sean Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This defense is elite and will make things difficult for Geno Smith — even without the injured Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos rank in the top five in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Denver is holding their opponents to 18.4 PPG — and they have held five of their nine opponents to no more than 17 points. Without Surtain last week, they played more zone coverage to hold the Texans to just 268 yards of offense. They are second in the NFL by limiting opposing rushers to 0.6 Yards After Contact — so Jeanty is not likely to have a big day. Instead, Smith will likely be in plenty of third-down and long situations — and the Broncos lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to converting on just 28% of their third downs. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November with Payton their head coach. Furthermore, while the Raiders are surrendering 26.3 PPG — and the Broncos have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49.5 point range, including seven of those eight games played at home. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 30 or more points. The Raiders might have scored 29 points, but they only gained 331 yards against the Jaguars' defense. There is no question that this offense is better with tight end Brock Bowers healthy again and on the field. But trading away their best wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers, did no favors to quarterback Geno Smith. The team did pick up Tyler Lockett last week — but the reason why Tennessee dropped him is because he is past his prime. One of Lockett’s primary responsibilities will be to mentor the team’s pair of rookie wide receivers, Dont’e Thornton, Jr., and Jack Blech. Running back Ashton Jeanty has not been nearly as explosive as the team had hoped — but much of that is because of a suspect offensive line that lost their best player, left tackle Kolton Miller, to a season-ending ankle injury in late September. The Raiders rank 29th in the league in Rushing Success Rate — and they are last in the NFL by getting stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage 31% of the time. Overall, Las Vegas is scoring only 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 29th in Expected Points Added per Play on offense. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, including 8 of those 13 games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are scoring 25.0 PPG — and the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games   against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. played 22 of their last 27 road games Under the Total against divisional opponents as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (110) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (109) and the Denver Broncos (110). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (2-6) has lost two games in a row after their 30-29 loss at home in overtime as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-2) has won six straight games after their 18-15 upset win at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders might have scored 29 points, but they only gained 331 yards against the Jaguars' defense. There is no question that this offense is better with tight end Brock Bowers healthy again and on the field. But trading away their best wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers, did no favors to quarterback Geno Smith. The team did pick up Tyler Lockett last week — but the reason why Tennessee dropped him is because he is past his prime. One of Lockett’s primary responsibilities will be to mentor the team’s pair of rookie wide receivers, Dont’e Thornton, Jr. and Jack Blech. Running back Ashton Jeanty has not been nearly as explosive as the team had hoped — but much of that is because of a suspect offensive line that lost their best player, left tackle Kolton Miller, to a season-ending ankle injury in late September. The Raiders rank 29th in the league in Rushing Success Rate — and they are last in the NFL by getting stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage 31% of the time. Overall, Las Vegas is scoring only 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 29th in Expected Points Added per Play on offense. On the other side of the ball, the defense did seem sharper last week by holding Jacksonville to 23 points in regulation time after making several adjustments coming off their bye week. Jeremy Chin took over for Jamal Adams as a nickel back, playing closer to the line of scrimmage. Free safety Isaiah Pola-Mao played three yards closer to the line of scrimmage. Linebacker Elandon Roberts got more snaps to help stop the run. The Raiders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Broncos score 25.0 PPG, Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams who score 24.5 or more PPG. Denver’s defense is elite and will make things difficult for Smith — even without the injured Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos rank in the top five in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Denver is holding their opponents to 18.4 PPG — and they have held five of their nine opponents to no more than 17 points. Without Surtain last week, they played more zone coverage to hold the Texans to just 268 yards of offense. They are second in the NFL by limiting opposing rushers to 0.6 Yards After Contact — so Jeanty is not likely to have a big day. Instead, Smith will likely be in plenty of third-down and long situations — and the Broncos lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to converting on just 28% of their third downs. But this Denver offense is a bit overrated. They only gained 271 yards last week with quarterback Bo Nix completing only 18 of 37 passes for 173 yards. He only ranks 26th in EPA per drop back when enjoying a clean pocket. The Raiders' tactical adjustment to play closer to the line of scrimmage should challenge Nix since he ranks 27th in EPA per pass of 20 or more air yards. He is down a man in the wide receiver room as well since Marvin Mims will miss this game due to an injury. The Broncos have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, including seven of those eight games played at home. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals. Furthermore, Denver has played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total in prime time — and Sean Payton’s teams have played 13 of their 18 games played on a Thursday Under the Total as a head coach.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 22 of their last 27 road games Under the Total against divisional opponents as an underdog. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (109) and the Denver Broncos (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (107) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (108). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (2-6) snapped their six-game losing streak with a 21-7 victory as a 6.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago on October 25th. Toledo (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-7 loss at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: We were on the Cardinals two Saturdays ago — and there was a chance for a back door cover watching the game on ESPN+ as the game ended with Ball State failing to score a touchdown after several meager attempts on the one-yard line (granted, we would have needed the so-called “Analytics Play” that commits a logical fallacy by going for two points after scoring a touchdown when trailing by 14 points to then cover the +6.5/+7 point spread). I underestimated how good this Huskies defense is when endorsing Ball State in that game. They rank in the top 35 in the nation by holding their opponents to only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they have been an unreliable favorite under head coach Thomas Hammock, they have also been very reliable road underdogs that have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog. The Huskies come off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment — but they did outgain their opponents by +73 net Yards-Per-Game. They ended their season by beating Fresno State in double overtime by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois was planning to move away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference — but Hammock called an audible with that plan as the offense is back to being run-first and playing at a slow tempo. That approach is helping keep the defense off the field for new coordinator Rob Harley, who served as the defensive coordinator for Arkansas State in the last four seasons. Toledo suffered their 18th upset loss since 2021 under head coach Jason Candle two Saturdays ago in a game where they only gained 299 yards of offense. The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent in the nine years with Candle running things. On the one hand, Candle usually has the most talented team in the Mid-American Conference. But Toledo has only won two MAC championships in his tenure, with too many upset losses getting in the way. Last year’s team was held back by a rushing attack that ranked 108th in the nation by generating only 115.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked 124th in Rush Success Rate. The Rockets failed to score more than 15 points four times last year — and they lost all four games. Candle addressed this deficiency in the transfer portal by bringing in sixth-year senior Chip Trayanum from Kentucky, who began his injury-riddled college career as a recruit at Ohio State — but he has been injured and is listed as questionable for this game. On paper, Toledo has the talent to win their third MAC title under Candle’s leadership. But that has been the case for most of his tenure. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when off a bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 11 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams. 8* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Northern Illinois Huskies (107) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-5) has lost five games in a row after their 27-23 loss at home against Green Bay as a 7-point underdog back on October 19th. Dallas (3-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-24 loss at Denver as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona is better than their record suggests. After winning their first two games, all five of their losses since have been four points or less. They have only trailed in 31% of their snaps played this season. They are only getting outgained by -0.1 net Points-Per-Game — and they are outscoring their home hosts by +0.7 net PPG when playing on the road. When conducting my deep dive on this team in the summer, there were reasons for optimism for the Cardinals in the third season under head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort. After only winning four games in each of the last two seasons, they doubled that win total last year with an 8-9 mark. The defense took a big step forward from perhaps the worst unit in the league to the middle of the pack. After ranking second-to-last by surrendering 26.8 Points-Per-Game in 2023-24, Arizona cut -4.5 PPG off that mark last year by holding their opponents to 22.3 PPG, ranking 15th in the league. This defense ranked last in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now FTN) — but they improved to 14th according to those analytics last season. Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis did a fantastic job in scheming that group up despite a rash of injuries on that side of the ball. The Cardinals ranked 29th in the NFL with 72.9 adjusted games lost to injury last year. They set an NFL record with 38.8 adjusted games lost to injury on the interior of their defensive line. The coaching philosophy is to rotate defensive linemen — so getting back Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones, who missed 26 combined games, will help. Expectations remain high on former first-round pick Darius Robinson, who missed most of his rookie season due to injuries as well. Ossenfort made a big splash in the offseason by spending $180 million on free agents — and four of those new players are starters in the front seven on defense. Joining the splashy new arrivals of defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Josh Sweat are six rookies, as Ossenfort invested his first five draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. First round draft pick Walter Nolen III immediately entered the rotation of a suddenly strong defensive line — and they clearly got a steal in the second round with cornerback Will Johnson, who was a consensus first round talent out of Michigan before injuries last year dropped his value. Last year, Arizona outscored their opponents by +1.2 net PPG and outgained them by +15.7 net Yards-Per-Game. But after a 6-4 start to the year, they faded down the stretch with five losses in their final seven games in what has become a consistent trend for this franchise. Since 2021, the Cardinals have a 23-22 record through the first nine weeks of the season but just a 12-27 mark the rest of the way — and that -.203 drop in winning percentage in the second half of the season is the worst decline in the league during that stretch. Failure to win close games has been much of the problem for years. Since 2019, when they drafted Murray, they have a 18-31-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. While Murray is not directly responsible for five of those losses, the losing record in those situations does correlate with his declining production in pressure situations. Murray ranked 12th in quarterback DVOA last season — but he dropped to 17th when facing pass rush pressure, 19th when playing in the fourth quarter or overtime, and 30th in third-and-long situations. Inconsistency was an issue for Murray before his injury, so this is not a new concern. This is likely one of the reasons that Gannon is not anxious to turn the offense back to Murray as he recovers from a foot injury. Jacoby Brissett is one of the best backups in the league. In his last two games playing for Murray, the veteran has passed for 599 yards with a 65% completion percentage. He has four touchdown passes and only one interception — and he has added 45 yards on the ground. Arizona has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games after their bye week. Dallas is getting outscored by -0.5 net PPG — and they are getting outgained by -4.3 net YPG when playing at home. The problem is the Cowboys' pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 20 touchdown passes against them with only four interceptions. These opposing QBs are completing 68.5% of their passes against them while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. Dallas ranks last in Opponent Expected Points Added per Drop Back Allowed. They also rank last in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed, Opponent Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Points Allowed Per Drive. They are surrendering 31.3 PPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the NFC West. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against the Cowboys. 20* NFL Arizona-Dallas ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Arizona Cardinals (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-5) has lost five games in a row after their 27-23 loss at home against Green Bay as a 7-point underdog back on October 19th. Dallas (3-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-24 loss at Denver as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, Arizona has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Head coach Jonathan Gannon does not appear anxious to turn the offense back to quarterback Kyler Murray as he recovers from a foot injury. Jacoby Brissett is one of the best backups in the league. In his last two games playing for Murray, the veteran has passed for 599 yards with a 65% completion percentage. He has four touchdown passes and only one interception — and he has added 45 yards on the ground. Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The problem with the Cowboys is their pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 20 touchdown passes against them with only four interceptions. These opposing QBs are completing 68.5% of their passes against them while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. Dallas ranks last in Opponent Expected Points Added per Drop Back Allowed. They also rank last in Opponent EPA per Play Allowed, Opponent Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Points Allowed Per Drive. They are surrendering 31.3 PPG. The Cowboys have played 15 of their last 21 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total when favored. Additionally, Dallas gets their bye week after this game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games before their bye week Over the Total against NFC opponents outside the NFC East. 

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and the Cowboys have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (473) and the Washington Commanders (474). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 27-19 victory against Houston as a 3-point favorite back on October 20th. Washington (3-5) has lost three games in a row after their 28-7 loss at Kansas City as a 10-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks limited the Texans to just 254 total yards in that game. Seattle’s defense was only responsible for giving up 12 points since Houston scored a defensive touchdown by recovering a Sam Darnold fumble in the end zone. Head coach Mike Macdonald was able to make an immediate impact on the Seahawks last season. The mixed fronts and pressures from basic presentations that disguise post-snap schematic adjustments are complicated. They have held six of their seven opponents to no more than 20 points. Seattle has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road following a bye week. They have also played 4 straight Unders on the road in Weeks Five through Nine. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Washington gets back Jayden Daniels at quarterback tonight — but he will not have wideout Terry McLaurin, who is out due to the quadriceps injury he aggravated on Monday. The Commanders have played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, head coach Dan Quinn’s teams have played 10 of their 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while Washington has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, Quinn’s teams have played 13 of their 19 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. Quinn’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Furthermore, the Commanders have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total in prime time. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (473) and the Washington Commanders (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (473) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (474). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 27-19 victory against Houston as a 3-point favorite back on October 20th. Washington (3-5) has lost three games in a row after their 28-7 loss at Kansas City as a 10-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: I ignored my qualitative assessment about how good I think this Seattle team is two weeks ago because the technical angles supporting the Texans two Monday nights ago were screaming to support Houston. Well, the technical angles can be wrong. Backing the Seahawks now does not correct that mistake — but I am giving more deference to my positive evaluation of this team. It starts with their defense, which limited the Texans to just 254 total yards in that game. Seattle’s defense was only responsible for giving up 12 points since Houston scored a defensive touchdown by recovering a Sam Darnold fumble in the end zone. Head coach Mike Macdonald was able to make an immediate impact on the Seahawks last season. The mixed fronts and pressures from basic presentations that disguise post-snap schematic adjustments are complicated. They have held six of their seven opponents to no more than 20 points. That defensive touchdown was the key score that led to Seattle’s game with the Texans finishing Over the Total — but the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after their bye week against NFC teams outside their division. Darnold has led his teams to score 27.4 Points-Per-Game when he is the starting quarterback playing with extended rest. Seattle is outscoring their opponents by +8.2 PPG and outgaining them by +44.7 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Seahawks are outscoring their hosts by +8.4 PPG and outgaining them by +110.7 net YPG. Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their 11 road games since Macdonald became their head coach — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Seahawks are also 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the Eastern Time Zone, including posting a 4-1-1 ATS mark since last year under Macdonald. Washington gets back Jayden Daniels at quarterback tonight — but he will not have wideout Terry McLaurin, who is out due to the quadriceps injury he aggravated on Monday. The Commanders are getting outgained by -37.6 net Yards-Per-Game due to their suspect defense that is surrendering 372.8 total YPG, ranking 27th in the NFL. NFL teams coming off a game with Kansas City have not fared well lately, as they have lost straight games over the last month by an average losing margin of -11 PPG. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after losing two or more games in a row. Head coach Dan Quinn’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after losing to a non-conference opponent in their previous contest. Furthermore, the Commanders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home gams as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range.

FINAL TAKE: Washington is just 13-25-1 ATS in their 39 games played in prime-time. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (473) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (327) and the Boston College Eagles (328). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (5-2) has won five straight games after their 34-24 victory against USC as a 10.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago on October 18th. Boston College (1-7) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-24 loss at Louisville as a 26-point underdog last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish come into this game rested after generating 442 yards against the Trojans' defense two weeks ago. They have averaged 42 Points-Per-Game during their five-game winning streak. Notre Dame has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a bye week. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Led by running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, the Fighting Irish have an explosive offense that travels — and freshman quarterback C.J. Carr continues to get more comfortable running the offense. The Notre Dame offense ranks 13th in Finishing Drives and 17th in Explosiveness. They also rank 27th in Third Down conversion rate. The Fighting Irish have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road when favored. They have also played 5 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. Boston College has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Eagles gave up 504 yards and 8.5 Yards-Per-Play against the Cardinals last week. They have surrendered 38 points in four straight games and in five of their seven contests. Boston College ranks 119th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed — so the Irish are going to put up plenty of points in this game. To compound matters, the Eagles rank 125th in defensive penalties allowed. Boston College returns home, where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total. They have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in November — and the Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in November. 20* CFB Notre Dame-Boston College ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (327) and the Boston College Eagles (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Memphis Tigers (315) and the Rice Owls (316). THE SITUATION: Memphis (7-1) rebounded from their 31-24 upset loss at UAB two weeks ago with a 34-31 upset victory at home against South Florida as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Rice (4-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 37-34 upset win against UConn in double overtime as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers’ defense is beginning to show some cracks after allowing the Blazers to generate 563 yards against them. It was the second straight game and the third time all season when an opponent scored 31 points. A season-ending injury to senior safety Kourtney Marsh has not helped matters. Memphis returned only one starter from last year’s defense — and they lost 19 of the 22 players who logged in at least 100 snaps last season. The Tigers are below average against the run and the pass. They rank 63rd in the nation in Opponent Expected Points Added per Rush Attempt, and they rank 84th in Opponent EPA per Drop Back in the passing game. But on the other side of the ball, Memphis leads the nation in EPA per Rush Attempt and EPA on first and second downs. They have scored at least 32 points in six of their eight contests. They are generating 438.5 total Yards-Per-Game, which is resulting in 37.6 Points-Per-Game — and they have been steady on the road where they are scoring 36.2 PPG and generating 420.0 total YPG. Senior quarterback Brendon Lewis completed 27 of 44 passes for 307 yards with two touchdown passes against the Bulls last week. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win against a fellow American Conference opponent. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 5 straight Overs when on the road and favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Rice generated 491 yards in their upset victory against the Huskies. At home, they are generating 382.5 total YPG, which is resulting in 26.3 PPG. Sophomore dual-threat Chase Jenkins has yet to throw an interception this season. Against UConn, he completed 17 of 22 passes for 191 yards with a touchdown and added 57 rushing yards from 17 carries. But the Owls are giving up 28.3 PPG when playing at home. They rank 78th in opponent EPA per rushing attempt allowed and 83rd in opponent EPA per drop back allowed. Rice has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. The Owls have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.  

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has now scored at least 20 points in 45 straight games. The Tigers have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total in the second half of the season. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Memphis Tigers (315) and the Rice Owls (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (310) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (309). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak in a 30-16 victory at home against Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-6) ended a three-game losing streak with a 34-10 upset victory at Atlanta as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami played their best game of the season on Sunday in their upset victory against the Falcons — and I look for them to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Head coach Mike McDaniel has leaned into his rushing attack to help his beleaguered defense. In beating the Falcons last week, the Dolphins ran the ball 37 times for 141 yards. McDaniel is finally getting more touches for rookie running back Ollie Gordon II. The former Oklahoma State star ran the ball 10 times for 46 yards. His power rushing style is a nice complement to DeVon Ache’s speed. With wide receiver Tyreek Hill out for the season with a torn ACL, I expect Miami to continue to rely on their ground game. They only gained 338 total yards last week — but their offense was on the field for 37:58 minutes. This helped them limit Atlanta to just 213 total yards. In their last two games, the Dolphins' offense ranks in the bottom five in pass rate versus expected pass rate based on NFL averages per the situation. Miami’s run defense has been better when not on the field as much. They held the Falcons’ star running back Bijon Robinson to just 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The previous week, they limited the Browns’ Quinshon Judkins to 3.4 YPC. The Dolphins return home, where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in October. Baltimore goes back on the road after playing their last three games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games after playing two or more games in a row at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on short rest when Lamar Jackson is healthy and on the field. The Ravens are getting healthy again — but the market is treating them as all the way back rather than a 2-5 football team. Jackson may not yet be 100% as he recovers from his hamstring injury, which could impact his mobility. 

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games with Jackson under center against opponents who are not winning more than 33% of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (310) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (309) and the Miami Dolphins (310). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak in a 30-16 victory at home against Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-6) ended a three-game losing streak with a 34-10 upset victory at Atlanta as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These are two similar teams. Both are disappointed with only two victories apiece — and both teams are turning to their rushing attack to help make things easier for their struggling defenses. In beating the Falcons last week, the Dolphins ran the ball 37 times for 141 yards. Head coach Mike McDaniel is finally getting more touches for rookie running back Ollie Gordon II. The former Oklahoma State star ran the ball 10 times for 46 yards. His power rushing style is a nice complement to DeVon Ache’s speed. With wide receiver Tyreek Hill out for the season with a torn ACL, I expect Miami to continue to rely on their ground game. They only gained 338 total yards last week — but their offense was on the field for 37:58 minutes. This helped them limit Atlanta to just 213 total yards. In their last two games, the Dolphins' offense ranks at the bottom on pass rate versus expected pass rate based on NFL averages per the situation. Miami’s run defense has been better when not on the field as much. They held the Falcons’ star running back Bijon Robinson to just 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The previous week, they limited the Browns’ Quinshon Judkins to 3.4 YPC. The Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory in their last game. The Ravens are surrendering 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — but Miami has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total against opponents who are giving up 350 or more YPG. The Dolphins have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore gets Lamar Jackson at quarterback this week — but it remains to be seen if he is 100% again in his recovery from his hamstring injury. Getting him back certainly jumpstarts their offense, but I do not expect their renewed emphasis to run the ball behind Derrick Henry to change. The Ravens have run the ball 37 and 35 times in their last two games. This focus has helped their defense, which has only given up 33 combined points in their last two games. They held the Los Angeles Rams to just 241 total yards in their previous contest before beating the Bears last week. Getting healthy again on that side of the ball certainly helps. They got their green dot back last week with Roquan Smith back in action at linebacker and calling the plays. Baltimore’s defense has underperformed this year, but I take their season-long stats with a grain of salt, given how they were ravaged by the injury bug earlier in the year. Remember, the Ravens struggled early with their defense last season before making some schematic adjustments that helped them develop into one of the best defenses in the league. I’m not promising that much growth this season — but the renewed commitment to run the ball seems to be one of the adjustments they have made to help that group perform. Miami is allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season — and Baltimore has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against opponents who are allowing 5.65 YPP. The Dolphins are also giving up 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and the Ravens have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total against opponents who are surrendering 7.0 or more YPA. 

FINAL TAKE: With both teams wanting to run the ball, expect fewer offensive possessions from both teams. In the last 30 games on Thursday Night Football, home underdogs are only scoring 16.5 PPG. The Under is 13-4-1 in Miami’s last 18 games in prime-time — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games for Thursday Night Football. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (309) and the Miami Dolphins (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (283) and the Kansas City Chiefs (284). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-22 loss at Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs’ defense flexed their muscles last week by limiting the Raiders offense to just 95 yards, three first downs, and a mere 29 plays (not a misprint). Kansas City has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They stay at home where they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 37 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total from Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. The Chiefs are finally at full strength in their wide receiver room since Rashee Rice returned from suspension — but their offensive line is missing two key members. Star right guard Trey Smith is doubtful with a lower back injury. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons is out due to personal issues. He has been everything the team hoped he would be when they drafted him with the last pick in the first round. Granted, the team feels good about free agent signee Jaylon Moore at left tackle — but he is a downgrade from Simmons. The loss of Smith is tough — and issues on the offensive line have been the other area that has held this offense back the last few seasons. Washington suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Cowboys last week — and head coach Dan Quinn’s teams have played 11 of their 18 games Under the Total after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Commanders have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and Quinn’s teams in his head coaching career, going back to his time with Atlanta, have played 18 of their 29 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight contests. Additionally, Quinn’s teams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival on the road. His teams have played 5 of their 8 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total. With quarterback Jayden Daniels out with a hamstring injury, it will be the veteran Marcus Mariota getting the start under tonight. Washington is averaging only 313.5 total Yards-Per-Game on the road, which is -31.5 net YPG below their overall season average. 

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 30 of their last 41 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home as a double-digit favorite. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with the Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (283) and the Kansas City Chiefs (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (283) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (284). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-22 loss at Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It’s time for my periodic reminder that we bet numbers, rather than teams. Despite their 0-2 start, I never lost faith that the Chiefs would remain a serious contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I have argued for years that if they can simply get most of the wide receivers they have assembled healthy and on the field together, their offense would explode. Sure enough, after not reaching the 30-point plateau in the regular season last year, they have scored 30 or more points in three of their last four games. We were on Kansas City against Detroit two weeks before taking the Under with their great defense against the Raiders last week. But asking them to cover a double-digit point spread against a solid NFL team is too much to expect. When Patrick Mahomes is coming off a win by 21 or more points and now is healthy and starting in a game laying 3.5 or more points, the Chiefs are just 2-6-1 ATS. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by 14 or more points. Kansas City has won 21 of their last 32 games after a game where they scored 30 or more points, but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of those 30 games, including seven of those last eight occasions. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing the Raiders in their last contest — and none of their victories were by more than one scoring possession under those circumstances. The Chiefs are finally at full strength in their wide receiver room since Rashee Rice returned from suspension — but their offensive line is missing two key members. Star right guard Trey Smith is doubtful with a lower back injury. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons is out due to personal issues. He has been everything the team hoped he would be when they drafted him with the last pick in the first round. Granted, the team feels good about free agent signee Jaylon Moore at left tackle — but he is a downgrade from Simmons. The loss of Smith is tough — and issues on the offensive line have been the other area that has held this offense back the last few seasons. Mahomes has a 35-2 straight-up record when the Chiefs are laying 7.5 or more points — but they are just 13-23-1 ATS in those 37 games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after a point spread loss since Dan Quinn took over as their head coach. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Commanders will be without second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels tonight due to a hamstring injury — but wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are expected to play. Having both receivers healthy will help veteran Marcus Mariota, who is one of the top backup quarterbacks in the league. He has thrown 100 touchdown passes to just 57 interceptions in his 11 seasons in his NFL career — and he remains pretty mobile. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after playing their previous game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against AFC opponents. In Quinn’s head coaching career going back to his first stint with Atlanta, his teams have covered 4 of the 6 games played on the road when they were getting 7.5 to 14 points. 

FINAL TAKE: Teams like Kansas City, who are coming off a shutout win at home, are then just 13-23-1 ATS in their next game, which probably speaks to their overconfidence — and the Chiefs laying double-digits only compounds that phenomenon. Head coach Andy Reid will be happy with the win — he does not care about paying off Kansas City bettors. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (283) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (281) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (282). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-1-1) has won two games in a row after their 27-23 victory at Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 33-31 upset loss at Cincinnati as a 5.5-point favorite back on Thursday, October 16th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has rebounded from their two-game winless slide by going on a two-game winning streak — and they usually build off their momentum. The Packers have covered the point spread in 18 of their 30 games after a straight-up win on the road since Matt LaFleur took over as their head coach. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. Adding Micah Parsons has certainly made their defense better. They are only giving up 288.5 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 18 points or less. In my deep dive on Green Bay in the summer before they acquired the pass rusher from Dallas, I concluded by speculating: “Maybe this is a roster of very nice players that remains limited because it simply lacks the handful of superstar game-changers that are essential to win games in the postseason.” Parsons certainly is a superstar game-changer. Getting wide receiver Christian Watson back from injury tonight also helps — he averaged 21.4 Yards-Per-Reception before getting injured last season. The Pittsburgh Steelers played the worst defensive game that I have seen from them in years two Thursday nights ago. Against the immobile Joe Flacco in his second start for the team, the veteran diced them in the short-passing game, as if that was not going to be the obvious game plan. Even worse, after struggling to run the ball all season, the Bengals ground game ran for 143 yards on 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry, the second most that the Steelers have given up in both those categories all season. They are giving up an uncharacteristic 374.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season. On the other side of the ball, I give quarterback Aaron Rodgers little credit for throwing for 249 yards with four touchdown passes against a terrible Bengals defense playing without their best player, pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. The 396 yards they generated on offense was their season high. Rodgers is getting ball out quickly, which is generally good, but his aversion to risk mistakes too often leaves the Steelers offense predictable and one-dimensional. Pittsburgh is averaging only 297.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they only improve to 301.0 total YPG when playing at home this season where they are only scoring 20.0 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a fellow AFC North rival in their last contest. 

FINAL TAKE: The Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games played in Prime-Time. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (281) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (281) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (282). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-1-1) has won two games in a row after their 27-23 victory at Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 33-31 upset loss at Cincinnati as a 5.5-point favorite back on Thursday, October 16th. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pittsburgh Steelers played the worst defensive game that I have seen from them in years two Thursday nights ago. Against the immobile Joe Flacco in his second start for the team, the veteran diced them in the short-passing game, as if that was not going to be the obvious game plan. Even worse, after struggling to run the ball all season, the Bengals ground game ran for 143 yards on 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry, the second most that the Steelers have given up in both those categories all season. This team under Mike Tomlin on short weeks is something else — even against bad offenses. But now Tomlin has had extra time to address the mistakes on defense — and I expect many of their issues have gotten cleaned up. In Tomlin’s tenure with Pittsburgh, the Steelers have played 25 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a game where they gave up 30 or more points. They have also played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a fellow AFC North rival. One of the other reasons why their defensive effort last week was so surprising is that their starting 11 on defense was finally healthy and playing together for the first time. They are giving up an uncharacteristic 374.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season — but that number does drop by -53.2 net YPG to 321.5 YPG when playing at home. On the other side of the ball, I give quarterback Aaron Rodgers little credit for throwing for 249 yards with four touchdown passes against a terrible Bengals defense playing without their best player, pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. The 396 yards they generated on offense were their season high. Rodgers is getting the ball out quickly, which is generally good, but his aversion to risk mistakes too often leaves the Steelers offense predictable and one-dimensional. Rodgers teams have played 13 of their 19 games Under the Total when playing a team with a better record than them. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog, getting up to seven points. The Packers are scoring 26.3 PPG, but the Steelers have played 5 straight home games Under the Total against opponents that are scoring 24 or more PPG. Pittsburgh has also played 28 of their 46 games Under the Total against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games under Tomlin, including four of those last five circumstances. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach. But the Packers' offense is not clicking on all its cylinders. They only gained 262 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals. Quarterback Jordan Love underachieved last season. In my deep dive on Green Bay over the summer, I deeply considered that his struggles were perhaps a combination of his playing through injuries, along with his wide receivers dropping too many of his passes. I concluded: “I don’t know how to assess where Love is at as he enters his sixth year in the league … I will be watching and learning.” Six games into their season, I still don’t know. There continues to be flashes of brilliance — but, on the other hand, he still does sketchy stuff with the football, which is a product of his decision-making. My impression is that their opening week victory against Detroit led them to believe that a Super Bowl appearance is their destiny — and their offense immediately started behaving like one with the overconfidence of a team trying to repeat as Super Bowl champions. On the road, they are generating only 327.0 YPG, which is -16.3 net YPG below their season average. On the other side of the football, adding Micah Parsons has certainly made their defense better. They are only giving up 288.5 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 18 points or less. Green Bay has played 15 of their 23 games Under the Total in October Under the Total since LaFleur became their head coach — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (281) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-2) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 24-9 loss at Detroit as a 6-point underdog last Monday night. New Orleans (1-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 26-14 loss at Chicago as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay had a tough assignment last week by catching an angry Lions team at home coming off their loss to Kansas City. Now it is the Buccaneers that should come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. As it is, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss, including eight of those nine games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road. And in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points, they have covered the point spread in 5 of those games. Injuries have impacted this team all season. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both out for this game, as is running back Bucky Irving and pass rusher Haasan Reddick. But rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka is off the injury report to give quarterback Baker Mayfield a great weapon in the passing game — Rachaad White was the primary running back before Irving supplanted him in the second half of last season. The Bucs' offensive line is now healthy again with the return of tackle Tristan Wirfs. The Buccaneers have made the playoffs in five straight seasons — including winning the Super Bowl in 2021 — and they have won the NFC South title for four straight seasons. While it may look like they get stuck in neutral once they are in the playoffs, remember that this team beat Philadelphia, Detroit, and Washington in the regular season last year — and they only lost to the Commanders by a field goal in a game they kind of gave away late. Probably no NFL team has more continuity from last season, either. Tampa Bay has all 11 starters back on offense and nine starters back on defense. The only coaching change was the elevation of pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator after Liam Coen took the head coaching job for Jacksonville. New offensive coordinators have become the norm for Baker Mayfield, who has had a new offensive coordinator in eight straight seasons. Mayfield needed to cut down on his 16 interceptions last year — and he has done so with only three interceptions to his  13 touchdown passes. He is on the short list to win the MVP this year. The unit is loaded with playmakers at running back and wide receiver, which is why Mayfield has been able to execute all his late-game comebacks despite dealing with attrition. It was telling that a vast majority of the veterans opted to re-sign with this squad in the offseason. While some key members remain from the 2021 Super Bowl team, they had the fourth-youngest roster in the league last year, as Licht has been rebuilding this team on the fly. With plenty of playoff experience, Tampa Bay may be under the radar in many circles — but not in their minds. While they can struggle against point spread expectations when laying a lot of points, this is the type of situation when they cash tickets. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record. They may be getting outscored by -1.0 Points-Per-Game — but they are outgaining their opponents in yards despite the injuries. New Orleans is getting outscored by -8.7 PPG — and they are getting outgained by -37.8  net Yards-Per-Game. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This season has become the judgment day for this organization after general manager Mickey Loomis' continued attempts to game the salary cap and kick the can down the road. New Orleans is eating over $100 million in dead cap space just this season on players who are no longer on the roster, like the now-retired Carr, wide receiver Michael Thomas (last relevant in 2019), traded cornerback Marshon Lattimore, and quarterback Jameis Winston. When adding bloated contracts to aging veterans past their prime, like running back Alvin Kamara and defensive end Cameron Jordan, there is over $120 million dedicated this season to sunk costs or deteriorating assets, representing over one-third of their overall player budget. The result may very well be the worst roster in the league. The coaching staff is new. The defensive coordinator is Brandon Staley, whose one good season was in 2020 for the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, who featured Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey at the peak of their careers. Kellen Moore finally gets his chance as a head coach after years of being bypassed on general manager short lists. Moore’s superpower might be his Teflon reputation in a coaching career, mostly working for offensive-minded head coaches. As the defensive coordinator in Dallas, he would usually get the credit for anything positive with the offense, while head coaches Jason Garrett and then Matt McCarthy would get the blame for the bad. A similar dynamic took place last year in Philadelphia, where head coach Nick Sirianni was the lightning rod for criticism while Moore was credited for stabilizing the offense. Moore’s one season where he worked for a defensive head coach was with the Los Angeles Chargers in Staley’s last season as their head coach — and Staley received the blame for everything given his reckless game management. The fact that Moore has yet to move off quarterback Spencer Rattler for rookie Tyler Shough, who they drafted in the second round last April, probably speaks to the NFL readiness of the former backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon, the journeyman played seven mostly nondescript seasons in a collegiate career that endured three season-ending injuries. Rattler threw three interceptions last week against the Bears. Rattler’s QBR is only 88.4 this season. The Saints have lost 16 of their last 20 games at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 of their games at home with Rattler as their starting quarterback — and they failed to cover the point spread by -10.0 PPG in those contests. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in all nine of their games as a single-digit underdog with Rattler — and they failed to cover the point spread by -11.4 PPG in those games. 

FINAL TAKE: The road team has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two teams while covering the point spread in 7 of those 10 contests. Mayfield dominated Rattler last season, with the Buccaneers winning both games against the Saints with Rattler starting by an average score of 39-23. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (180) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (179). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. Texas A&M (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 45-42 victory against Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Aggies are primed to get exposed in this game after facing a soft schedule that has not included a ranked team from the SEC. They got outgained by the Razorbacks last week by -30 net yards after surrendering 527 yards in that game. Arkansas generated 8.4 Yards-Per-Carry against them while churning out 268 yards on the ground. They also gave up 13.1 Yards-Per-Play on passing downs. This was not the first time that an opponent exposed this Texas A&M defense. Notre Dame put up 440 yards and 40 points against them. The problems with the Aggies' defense starts with their tackling — they rank 115th in the Pro Football Focus tackling grade after missing 25 combined missed tackles in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida. They also rank 134th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 9 games on the road when favored since Mike Elko became their head coach — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season. LSU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against SEC rivals after a straight-up loss on the road. Head coach Brian Kelly can take some solace in that his offense generated 6.63 Yards-Per-Play despite only having the ball on offense for 23:29 minutes of that game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after gaining 6.25 or more YPP. LSU has lost two games to Ole Miss and the Commodores last week — but they can keep their college football playoff hopes alive by winning the remainder of their games. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home from Weeks Five through Nine. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 19 games at home as an underdog, including four of those six games played since taking over the LSU program. 

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s meeting between these two teams in College Station by a 38-23 score as a 2-point home favorite — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (180) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (157) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (158). THE SITUATION: Ball State (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 42-28 upset victory at home against Akron as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Northern Illinois (1-6) has lost six games in a row after their 48-21 loss at Ohio as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State upset the Bobcats team that just beat the Huskies by 27 points earlier this season by a 20-14 score despite being a 14-point underdog. Their opening two games were on the road at Power Four conference opponents Purdue and Auburn to begin the season. The Cardinals typically play better as the season moves forward. Ball State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after an upset victory and now facing a fellow Mid-American Conference rival. Looking back, it turns out that the Cardinals’ Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 was simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season. Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since. Neu was fired with two games left in a season where they finished just 3-9. The Cardinals posted an 18-31 record overall and a 12-20 conference mark in the last four years since that triumph. The administration appears to have made a good hire in Butler head coach Mike Uremovich, who turned that struggling FCS program around with a 23-11 record in his three seasons. The former Temple and Northern Illinois offensive coordinator is a familiar face for high school coaches in Indiana — and he has experience coaching in the MAC. He reunited with defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles, who took over running the Ball State defense last year after serving as the Bulldogs' DC under Knowles. That unit was a disaster last season, ranking 131st and 124th in the nation by surrendering 40.1 Points-Per-Game and 454.9 total Yards-Per-Game. Three starters are back from that group — and Uremovich brought in ten transfers. Uremovich gave the keys to the offense to senior Kiael Kelly, who started the final six games under center in 2023. With redshirt freshman Kadin Semonza returning for his second season after taking his redshirt after starting the first four games in 2023, the coaching staff wanted to utilize Kelly’s athleticism by moving him to the secondary and then the wide receiver room. Uremovich’s reputation is that he adapts his offensive schemes to his talent — so returning to the run-heavy RPO approach used with Kelly in those final six games is likely. While he only completed 53% of his passes, he ran for 724 yards and seven touchdowns. More importantly, Ball State went 3-3 in his six starts — and their three losses were all decided by one scoring possession. Running the ball more will certainly help the defense, with the offense burning more time off the clock. The Cardinals executed that game plan last week with Kelly running the ball for 58 yards and scoring three touchdowns. He added another 121 yards in the air with a passing touchdown. Ball State should continue to improve in the second half of the season under Uremovich. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against MAC rivals. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois opens the season by beating an FBS opponent, Holy Cross. In their six losses since, all against FBS opponents, they are only scoring 11.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not been a resilient team following a setback under head coach Thomas Hammock. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. Northern Illinois comes off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois moved away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference, in the long run. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. But in the short run, it’s not working. They only gained 293 yards last week against the Bobcats. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover. That’s not working either. As it is, Northern Illinois is just 5-32-2 ATS in their last 39 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are getting outscored by -13.3 Points-Per-Game (much of that coming from their -70 net point differential against Purdue and Auburn) — but the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams that were getting outscored by -10 or more PPG. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (157) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Chargers (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (4-3) lost three of their last four contests after their 38-24 upset loss at home against Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, in Jim Harbaugh’s head coaching career in the NFL, his teams have played 18 of their 27 games Under the Total following a loss — and his teams have also played 11 of those 16 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Furthermore, while Los Angeles suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Colts, Harbaugh’s teams in his NFL career have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where his team had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Chargers are hit hard by the injury bug. Linebacker Khalil Mack has missed the last four games due to an elbow injury. Running back Najee Harris suffered a season-ending Achilles injury a month ago. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton is on IR after injuring his ankle two weeks ago. The offensive line has been without their top three offensive tackles after left tackle Rashawn Slater’s season-ending torn patellar injury, right tackle Joe Alt’s ankle injury, and swing tackle Trey Pipkins’ knee injury. The good news is that Mack is expected to return. On the offensive line, the team is hopeful that Alt can return after taking part in limited practice this week — and there is a chance Pipkins can return as well. But even if they are back, those players will not be close to 100%. The running back room remains a mess with Kimani Vidal off the practice squad to take over as the lead back last week — and head coach Jim Harbaugh will have to choose a second running back off the practice squad to serve as his backup, given the injury to Hassan Haskins. This is far from ideal for Harbaugh after the offense ran the ball only 16 times for 54 yards last week. Quarterback Justin Herbert was asked to pass the ball 55 times — and while he gained 450 yards in the air, this is not Harbaugh’s preferred formula for success. After only throwing three interceptions all of last season, Herbert has already doubled that amount in seven games after throwing two picks last week. Even worse, he has been sacked 15 times in the last four games — and he has endured 56 hits after the Colts registered 15 hits on Herbert last week. That is simply not sustainable — but Harbaugh cannot really rely on the running game to protect his prized QB right now. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. And in their last 7 games against teams from the NFC, the Chargers have played 6 of those games Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Minnesota is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on offense. Running back Aaron Jones and center Ryan Kelly are out. Two other starters on the offensive line, Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw, are listed as questionable — but played on Sunday, so they are non-involvement in practices this week was likely precautionary. Carson Wentz will be under center once again, with head coach Kevin O’Connell not wanting to risk playing J.J. McCarthy without a full week of practice if and when he is 100% healthy again. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. The Chargers are generating 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road against opponents who are averaging 4.5 or more YPC. And in their last 39 games played in prime time, the Vikings have played 26 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total in the first half of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Chargers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (109) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (4-3) lost three of their last four contests after their 38-24 upset loss at home against Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: After winning their first three games and looking like the potential cream of the crop in the AFC West, injuries have ravaged this Chargers team. Linebacker Khalil Mack has missed the last four games due to an elbow injury. Running back Najee Harris suffered a season-ending Achilles injury a month ago. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton is on IR after injuring his ankle two weeks ago. The offensive line has been without their top three offensive tackles after left tackle Rashawn Slater’s season-ending torn patellar injury, right tackle Joe Alt’s ankle injury, and swing tackle Trey Pipkins’ knee injury. Those are just the headliners on their long injured list. Safety Elijah Molden is questionable tonight with a thumb injury, and rookie defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell is questionable with an illness. The good news is that Mack is expected to return. On the offensive line, the team is hopeful that Alt can return after taking part in limited practice this week — and there is a chance Pipkins can return as well. But even if they are back, those players will not be close to 100%. The running back room remains a mess with Kimani Vidal off the practice squad to take over as the lead back last week — and head coach Jim Harbaugh will have to choose a second running back off the practice squad to serve as his backup, given the injury to Hassan Haskins. This is far from ideal for Harbaugh after the offense ran the ball only 16 times for 54 yards last week. Quarterback Justin Herbert was asked to pass the ball 55 times — and while he gained 450 yards in the air, this is not Harbaugh’s preferred formula for success. After only throwing three interceptions all of last season, Herbert has already doubled that amount in seven games after throwing two picks last week. Even worse, he has been sacked 15 times in the last four games — and he has endured 56 hits after the Colts registered 15 hits on Herbert last week. That is simply not sustainable — but Harbaugh cannot really rely on the running game to protect his prized QB right now. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss, including three of those four games coming off an upset loss at home. In Harbaugh’s NFL head coaching career, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their 8 games following a loss by 14 or more points. Herbert’s two interceptions were responsible for LA’s -2 net turnover margin last week — and Harbaugh’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of the 10 games in his NFL head coaching career when his teams come off a game where they suffered a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Chargers have not covered the point spread in four straight games — and while that may tempt some bettors, perhaps too attached to the Gambler’s Fallacy, it is a very bad sign when it is happening to a Harbaugh-coached team. In the 4 times in his NFL head coaching career when his teams had failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they then did not cover the point spread in all four of those subsequent games — and in the two games in his career where there was another game that season as his team had failed to cover the point spread in four games in a row, they failed to cover the point spread once again in both contests. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played in October. And the Chargers are just 37-52-1 ATS in their last 90 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Minnesota is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own, with linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, running back Aaron Jones, and center Ryan Kelly out. Two other starters on the offensive line, Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw, are listed as questionable — but played on Sunday, so they are non-involvement in practices this week was likely precautionary. Carson Wentz will be under center once again, with head coach Kevin O’Connell not wanting to risk playing J.J. McCarthy without a full week of practice if and when he is 100% healthy again. Wentz has been fine in his four starts — he is completing 66.7% of his passes with five touchdown passes but four interceptions. In his seven starts on Thursday Night Football, Wentz is undefeated with his teams covering the point spread in 6 of those 7 games — and he led his team to two upset victories. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games in the first half of the season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range since O’Connell took over as their head coach. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: It may be tempting to take Los Angeles in this bounce-backs situation but enjoying the advantage of staying at home on the short week — but when these NFL teams are coming off a loss a loss at home of 14 or more points and are now playing at home on short rest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of those last 37 situations. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (109) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be the Houston Texans (477) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (478). THE SITUATION: Houston (2-3) has won two games in a row after their 44-10 victory at Baltimore as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago, back on October 5th. Seattle (4-2) won for the fourth time in their last five games after their 20-12 victory at Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston is beginning to find themselves after losing their first three games of the season. Admittedly, beating the Tennessee Titans and the M*A*S*H unit is the Ravens right now is not the most impressive resume in the league lately, but never apologize for taking care of business and getting the wins. The Texans should be able to build off their momentum under head coach DeMeco Ryans — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. Houston may possess the best defense in the NFL. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when Ryans has extra time to prepare for their opponent. They held the Ravens to just 210 net yards two weeks ago. They are holding their opponents to only 265.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 12.2 Points-Per-Game, the lowest scoring mark in the league. They have not given up more than 20 points all season —  and their last three opponents have scored just 27 combined points against them. Those three opponents have not gained more than 281 total yards against the Texans' defense. The Houston defense has helped them cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in Weeks Five through Nine. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been everything that the Seahawks hoped he would be when they signed him in free agency. But the Texans, by far, are the best defense that he will have played against all season — and he demonstrated in Seattle’s loss at home to Tampa Bay that he is still prone to making mistakes at critical moments. Remember, after his great regular season with Minnesota last year, he still struggled mightily in his final two games of the year against Detroit and then the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I’m not ready to conclude that his streakiness and inconsistencies are all behind him. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — as he has this season. But when things go bad as they did in that final regular season game against the Lions, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk. He cannot simply flip the switch when facing adversity. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long, which compounds the problem. His decision-making remains a work in progress, and he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. Technically, his lack of a compact delivery results in taking longer if he needs to reset his stance. He will be challenged by the Texans’ elite secondary and outstanding pass rush. Houston ranks second in Pass Defense according to the advanced DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (FTN). They also rank in the top ten in blitz rate — so he will get challenged. This game will go far in determining how much Darnold has improved under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The books seem skeptical given the low Total and that his team is only a field goal favorite despite playing at home. As it is, Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record. Lastly, in Darnold’s career 19 starts against teams with a losing record, his teams are 5-13-1 ATS. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (477) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (477) and the Seattle Seahawks (478). THE SITUATION: Houston (2-3) has won two games in a row after their 44-10 victory at Baltimore as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago, back on October 5th. Seattle (4-2) won for the fourth time in their last five games after their 20-12 victory at Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans may possess the best defense in the NFL. They held the Ravens to just 210 net yards two weeks ago. They are holding their opponents to only 265.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 12.2 Points-Per-Game, the lowest scoring mark in the league. They have not given up more than 20 points all season —  and their last three opponents have scored just  27 combined points against them. Those three opponents have not gained more than 281 total yards against the Houston defense. The Texans have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after their bye week. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win with quarterback C.J. Stroud under center. And while Houston has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games since DeMeco Ryans became their head coach. On the other side of the ball, my offseason concerns about the state of the Texans' offensive line have certainly not waned. General manager Nick Caserio invested $52.3 million into that group for last season, the sixth most in the NFL. That group had an Adjusted Sack Rate of 9.1% of their dropback passes, as compared to their 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate in 2023-24. Stroud enjoyed a clean pocket in only 59% of his dropbacks, ranking second-to-last (just above Deshaun Watson) for qualifying quarterbacks. Three starters are now gone from that group, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom Caserio traded to Washington. He struggled with run blocking. There were red flags on left guard Kenyon Green. Paying Shaq Mason may not be prudent. But who are the replacements? Cam Robinson was signed from Minnesota at left tackle. Jacksonville benched him midseason, before trading him to the Vikings. He leads a pack of free agent signees that are classic retreads, with the only variation being either (a) wait until you see them return to form recovering from injury, or (b) maybe a new environment can get the remaining fuel out of his tank. These are low-end band aids solutions to what was a bad offensive line last year. In their first five games this season, Houston is only generating 314.4 total YPG, which is resulting in 21.6 PPG. While they gained 417 yards two weeks ago in their blowout win against the Ravens, that victory probably speaks more about the M*A*S*H unit that was that Baltimore team. I suspect the Texans' offense will look like the one that scored only 12.7 PPG in their three games on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, at home against Tampa Bay, and then at Jacksonville. They did not generate more than 271 total yards in those first three games before catching a break with their schedule by hosting Tennessee and then getting the banged-up Ravens. Houston has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Seattle held the Jaguars to just 273 yards of offense last week. They have held five of their six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Seahawks are surrendering just 314.5 total YPG, which is resulting in 19.5 PPG. Head coach Mike Macdonald was able to make an immediate impact on the Seahawks in his first season with this team last year. Inheriting a group that was ranked 28th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders, Seattle’s defense rose to 10th in Defensive DVOA last year. They held five of their last eight opponents to 18 points or less last season. Such dramatic improvements are vulnerable to the plexiglass principle the following season, with the efficiency taking a few steps back — but there were substantive reasons to believe the progress on this side of the ball is sustainable. The Baltimore Ravens experienced a learning curve adjusting to Macdonald’s defensive approach when he was the defensive coordinator. The mixed fronts and pressures from basic presentations that disguise post-snap schematic adjustments are complicated. Player versatility is a must. Furthermore, Macdonald had the courage to accept that some things were not working midseason and made fundamental changes at linebacker. First, the team traded starting middle linebacker Jerome Baker, an offseason free-agent signing, to Miami for Ernest Jones IV on October 24th. The team then released Tyrel Dodson on November 11th. Then, rookie Tyrice Knight was elevated into the starting lineup in Week 10 after their bye week. Jones IV became a tackling machine in Macdonald’s system. Knight was an upgrade. The run defense significantly improved by ranking sixth in DVOA from Week 10 to the end of the season. This improvement allowed the Seahawks' safety to play back in pass coverage. Macdonald could also deploy more nickel defense with five defensive backs since nickel back Devon Witherspoon is so effective in the box in run defense. In their last eight games, Seattle ranked fourth in Points-Per-Game Allowed and fifth in Yards-Per-Game Allowed. Macdonald has 13 of the top 14 players in snap count back from that unit — so their continued strong play on defense is not a surprise. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Sam Darnold has been everything that the Seahawks hoped he would be when they signed him in free agency. But the Texans by far are the best defense that he will have played against all season — and he demonstrated in Seattle’s loss at home to Tampa Bay that he is still prone to making mistakes at critical moments. Remember, after his great regular season with Minnesota last year, he still struggled mightily in his final two games of the year against Detroit and then the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I’m not ready to conclude his streakiness and inconsistencies are all behind him. When things are going well, he plays with confidence — as he has this season. But when things go bad as they did in that final regular season game against the Lions, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk. He cannot simply flip the switch when facing adversity. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long, which compounds the problem. His decision-making remains a work in progress, and he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. Technically, his lack of a compact delivery results in taking longer if he needs to reset his stance. He will be challenged by the Texans’ elite secondary and outstanding pass rush. This game will go far in determining how much Darnold has improved under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The books seem skeptical given the low Total and that his team is only a field goal favorite despite playing at home. The Seahawks enter their bye week after this game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total before heading into their bye week. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total in prime-time. And in their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Seattle has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: In Houston’s 19 games against teams with a winning record under Ryans as their head coach, they have played 14 of them Under the Total. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (477) and the Seattle Seahawks (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Atlanta Falcons (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 30-19 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Atlanta (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-14 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog on Monday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Atlanta comes off their biggest victory since Raheem Morris took over as their head coach last season — but sustaining momentum has been a problem for them. The Falcons are 11-22-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Second-year quarterback Michael Penix played better last week by completing 20 of 32 passes for 250 yards with a touchdown on Monday — but now he goes back on the road for the first time since the Falcons got shut out at home at Carolina by a 30-0 score. In my deep dive on this team in the offseason, I was concerned that the hype surrounding Penix was premature. Penix only completed 58.1% of his passes last season with a Passer Rating of 78.9 — and his three starts were against the New York Giants, Washington, and Carolina, which had some of the worst defenses in the league. What is emerging this season are disparate home/road splits for the southpaw. In his six career starts at home, Penix has a 95.2 Quarterback Rating while averaging 231.5 passing YPG and 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has six touchdown passes to just three interceptions. But in his four career starts on the road, he has a 61.7 QBR while averaging only 138.5 passing YPG and 5.8 YPA — and he has only one touchdown pass and three interceptions. The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. San Francisco is a M*A*S*H unit right now with wide receivers Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk injured and on the shelf. Quarterback Brock Purdy is also still out with his toe injury. The defense will be without linebacker Fred Warner for the rest of the season. But backup quarterback Mac Jones has been efficient operating head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense — and now he gets back tight end George Kittle, who has missed time due to an injury. The 49ers demonstrated in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams two weeks ago that they can still beat good teams despite the attrition they are dealing with right now. San Francisco suffered a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 33 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Atlanta Falcons (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-14 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog on Monday. San Francisco (4-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 30-19 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons defense flexed their muscles by holding Josh Allen and the explosive Bills offense to just 291 yards and a mere 5.4 Yards-Per-Play. This Atlanta defense is legit under first-year defensive coordinator Jell Ulbrich. The Falcons lead the league by holding their opponents to 253.4 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are the best defense in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Additionally, this defense ranks fourth in the league by limiting their opponents to converting on just 32.1% of their third downs. Atlanta had a great draft by adding linebackers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker (who is out with an injury tonight), along with safety Xavier Watts. The additions of linebacker Leonard Floyd and safety Jordan Fuller in free agency have also boosted the talent level of this unit. They finally have a semblance of a pass rush with 14 sacks so far this season. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Additionally, head coach Raheem Morris’ teams have played 6 of their 9 games in his head coaching career Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to no more than 14 points. The former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator has worked well with Ulbrich to develop this defense. Second-year quarterback Michael Penix played better last week by completing 20 of 32 passes for 250 yards with a touchdown on Monday — but now he goes back on the road for the first time since the Falcons got shut out at home at Carolina by a 30-0 score. In my deep dive on this team in the offseason, I was concerned that the hype surrounding Penix was premature. Penix only completed 58.1% of his passes last season with a Passer Rating of 78.9 — and his three starts were against the New York Giants, Washington, and Carolina, which had some of the worst defenses in the league. What is emerging this season are disparate home/road splits for the southpaw. In his six career starts at home, Penix has a 95.2 Quarterback Rating while averaging 231.5 passing YPG and 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has six touchdown passes to just three interceptions. But in his four career starts on the road, he has a 61.7 QBR while averaging only 138.5 passing YPG and 5.8 YPA — and he has only one touchdown pass and three interceptions. The Falcons have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and Morris’ teams have played all 5 of their games Under the Total as an underdog of three points or less in his head coaching career. San Francisco is playing at far from full strength on offense with wide receivers Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk injured and on the shelf. Quarterback Brock Purdy is also still out with his toe injury. Backup quarterback Mac Jones has been efficient operating head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense — but he lacks the explosiveness in the passing game that Purdy provides. Running back Christian McCaffrey is only generating 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. The 49ers suffered a -2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 19 of their 32 games Under the Total in the Shanahan era after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta generates 5.9 Yards-Per-Play -- and San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against opponents who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP. The Niners have also played 30 of their 51 games Under the Total under Shanahan when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 16 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing in Prime Time in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with short rest. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (418) minus the points versus Tennessee (417). THE SITUATION: Alabama (5-1) has won five games in a row after their 27-24 win at Missouri as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (5-1) has won three games in a row with their 34-31 victory against Arkansas as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama has responded to their opening week loss at Florida State with three straight victories, including three wins in a row against ranked SEC rivals, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and then the Tigers last week. The Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win on the road. Now they return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 37 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home against SEC opponents. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when the Total is set in the 56.5-62 point range. Quarterback Ty Simpson is growing as a top-level collegiate quarterback. He is completing 71% of his passes with 16 touchdowns to just one interception. That will work. Tennessee benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Razorbacks — and that made up for them getting outgained by -11 net yards and losing the first down battle by a 29-22 margin to a team playing for an interim head coach. The Volunteers are not likely to enjoy similar turnover success against this Alabama team that has only turned the ball over twice in their six games. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a straight-win against a fellow SEC rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. Quarterback Jason Aguilar has thrown 14 touchdown passes to just five interceptions — but against SEC opponents, he has thrown only six touchdowns with four interceptions. Remember, he was Tennessee’s consolation prize after Nico Iamaleava transferred to UCLA after spring practice, as they then grabbed the UCLA quarterback who was likely losing his job to the Volunteers’ QB last season. His 24 interceptions over the last two seasons, including 14 picks last year, are issues. Only three starters are back on offense, with the four starters lost on the offensive line, running back and SEC Offensive Player of the Year, Dylan Sampson, getting drafted into the NFL, and the wide receiver room filled with freshmen and sophomores. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks oversaw an outstanding unit that held their opponents to 293.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game for those foes, ranking sixth and seventh in the nation. The Volunteers lost defensive end James Pearce Jr. to the first round of the NFL draft along with three of their top four defensive tackles, but they do return eight starters and 12 of the 25 players who logged-in at least 150 snaps last season. The Tennessee defense has taken a few steps back this year. They rank only 78th in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They are also surrendering 213.7 Rushing Yards Per Game — and the 13 rushing touchdowns they have allowed is the 115th worst mark in the nation. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against fellow SEC rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six of those nine games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams winning 75% or more of their contests. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (418) minus the points versus Tennessee (417). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (416) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (415). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 36-7 victory against NC State as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. USC (5-1) rebounded from their 31-13 victory at home against Michigan as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans did not leave their triumph against the Wolverines at full strength. Starting running back Waymond Jordan Jr. injured his ankle, which will keep him out for this game. And while freshman King Miller generated three explosive runs in his absence, asking him to be the bell cow this week after the Irish coaching staff has tape on him presents a different challenge. Plus, there is the issue with the weather. As of Friday night, the weather forecast indicates there is a 100% chance of rain and a 38% chance of thunderstorms. The wind will be 14 miles per hour and gusting up to 36 MPH. A couple of caveats about this. As we witnessed last Sunday night in Kansas City, when there was a 55% chance of rain but the weather turned out fine for that Lions-Chiefs showdown, all of these weather forecasts needed to be taken with a grain of salt. I will never endorse a play and invest my money exclusively in a prediction about the weather. That said, if it is as rainy and windy as tonight’s forecast projects, it is going to make things more difficult for USC quarterback Jayden Maiva. The Trojans' successful run game against Michigan was set up by Maiva torching them for 265 yards from his 25 completions of his 32 pass attempts. The Trojans lead the nation in Standard Down Efficiency — but if the vertical game is impeded from the wet ball traveling in the wind, then their best trait is taken away from them. USC’s offensive line is also a bit banged up after last week’s very physical — and while all their starters are expected to play on the line, they are not in ideal shape to grind out a run-first game plan against the outstanding Notre Dame front line. As it is, the Trojans look primed for emotional letdown after securing what some national pundits have described as the most important win in the Lincoln Riley era. USC proved that they can out-muscle a Big Ten blue blood in the trenches. But this Fighting Irish team is bigger and better than the Wolverines in terms of both their offensive and defensive lines. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games after a win by 17 or more points. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games from Weeks Five through Nine. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. After losing their opening two games against Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, the Irish remain in the College Football Playoff conversation by winning their last four games — and one analytics system ranks their strength of schedule so far as the 11th most difficult in the FBS. Redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Carr is getting more comfortable in the passing game — he completed 19 of 31 passes for 342 yards against the Wolfpack last week. During their four-game winning streak, the Fighting Irish have generated 44 Points-Per-Game. Of course, the potential rainstorms will limit the Notre Dame pass attack — but they should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and get their ground game going. Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have 15 combined touchdowns and average 3.6 Rushing Yards After Contact. Now they face a Trojans' defense that ranks 112th in Opponent Rushing Efficiency Allowed and 119th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row. Notre Dame’s defense does rank 111th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — but that mark deserves some context. The Irish have struggled against man-blocking schemes. They have been much better against zone blocking concepts — and those are the schemes that Riley prefers. Notre Dame’s run defense has improved lately — they have given up only one rushing gain of ten or more yards in their last two games. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The favorite in this series has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Notre Dame has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 opportunities to host the Trojans in South Bend. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (416) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (415). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (311) and the Cincinnati Bengals (312). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-9 win at home against Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 27-18 loss at Green Bay as a 15-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It’s the Icy Hot Bowl between the 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the 40-year-old Joe Flacco. The over/under for passes of more than ten air yards is in the single digits. Both of these quarterbacks are going to get the ball out fast, but not challenge the opposing defenses with vertical routes. No quarterback with at least 75 dropbacks is getting rid of the ball faster than Rodgers is — and he is facing the second-lowest pressure rate in the league. But the eye-test suggests he is very sensitive to avoiding getting hit — and that is a tough way to be effective at that position (ask Matthew Stafford, who is still hanging in the pocket to keep alive deep throws). Rodgers ranks only 16th in the league in Expected Points Added Per Drop Back. After Rodgers won his Personal Revenge Bowl against the New York Jets in Week One, the Steelers have been scoring only 21.3 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The 335 yards they gained last week against the Browns were the most they have generated all season. The Pittsburgh defense is starting to round into form as they held their last three opponents to 14.7 PPG. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Bengals are giving up 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 7.0 or more YPA. Joe Flacco may be an upgrade over Jake Browning under center for the Bengals — but Cleveland gave up on him for a reason. Like Aaron Rodgers, he is stat-padding — but, why not, when other NFL teams continue to take the bait? Flacco threw the ball 45 times last week, but for only 219 yards. He is playing safe small-ball — and it is very predictable. Head coach Zac Taylor’s play-calling gets exposed when Joe Burrow is not there to bail him out. The Bengals' offensive line remains perpetually bad. Admittedly, the Cincinnati defense is terrible (and even worse without the injured Trey Hendrickson tonight) — they are giving up 30.5 PPG. But the Steelers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams that are surrendering 24 or more PPG. The Bengals have been Over machines with Taylor as their head coach — but in their last 16 games at home as an underdog, they have played 9 of those games Under the Total. Cincinnati has also played 9 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row.  

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are getting outscored by -13.3 Points-Per-Game — and the Steelers have played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total against teams who are getting outscored by -4.5 or more PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (311) and the Cincinnati Bengals (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (311) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (312). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-9 win at home against Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 27-18 loss at Green Bay as a 15-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The update this afternoon that defensive end Trey Hendrickson will not take the field tonight due to his hip injury. The Bengals were a disaster even with him on that side of the ball — they rank 30th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are surrendering 394.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 30.5 Points-Per-Game. In Hendrickson’s eight games in his career against the Steelers, he has registered 8.5 sacks and 17 hits on the quarterback. Cincinnati fired their previous defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo and replaced him with Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. It was a fine hire — but Anarumo is demonstrating with the Indianapolis Colts that he did not forget how to coach defense as their new defensive coordinator. My fundamental question in my deep dive with this team in the offseason was whether “Blame Lou” is simply whitewashing the true critique to Blame Duke. Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has drafted ten players in the first three rounds of the NFL draft since 2022. Yet players like defensive linemen Kris Jenkins and Myles Murphy, along with defensive backs Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner II, Dax Hill, and Jordan Battle, have either underachieved or looked like outright busts entering the new season. That verdict is becoming clear. And I have made a decision about head coach Zac Taylor. Since the season-ending injury to Joe Burrow, the Bengals have lost each of their next two games by double-digits. Yes, they finally covered a point spread again last week with Joe Flacco under center — but Cleveland gave up on him for a reason. Like Aaron Rodgers, he is stat-padding — but, why not, when other NFL teams continue to take the bait. Flacco threw the ball 45 times last week, but for only 219 yards. He is playing safe small-ball — and it is very predictable. Previous quarterback Jake Browning was not the problem as much as it was Taylor’s play-calling (that Burrow covers up) and the perpetually bad Cincinnati offensive line. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home in the first half of the season. And in their last 14 games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those games. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. As I mentioned earlier, Rodgers is playing it safe as well — but at least the schematic design of the offense under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is taking advantage of the skillset of the weapons his quarterback has. The Steelers are using lots of two and three-tight end sets which is a wide idea since they probably have the best tight end room in the league. Along with wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, Rodgers has plenty of big targets — so getting the ball out quickly and letting those receivers bully their way for yards after the catch is effective. Rodgers has a 112 Passer Rating in his last three games. No quarterback with at least 75 dropbacks is getting rid of the ball faster than he is — and he is facing the second-lowest pressure rate in the league. That is a formula for success. When facing pressure, his Expected Points Added per Dropback ranks 27th of the 34 qualifying quarterbacks. But when not facing pressure, his EPA per dropback improves to 12th in the NFL — and that is why the absence of Hendrickson is so critical tonight. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 14 games against fellow AFC North rivals, they have covered the point spread 10 times. 

FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 13-5-1 ATS on the road in Cincinnati against the Bengals — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 clashes with them since Taylor became their head coach. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (311) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (304) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (303). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-5) has lost five games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss in overtime at Troy as a 1-point favorite back on October 4th. Arkansas State (2-4) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-30 upset victory at home against Texas State as a 13.5-point underdog on October 4th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has endured some tough losses in the first half of the season. After taking care of business in their opening game against Morgan State, they played Tulane very tough at home in a 33-31 loss despite being a 13.5-point underdog in that game. They then traveled to Auburn — and while the Tigers won by a 31-15 score, the game played closer than that with South Alabama only getting outgained by -27 net yards by giving up just 337 total yards of offense. The next week at home against Coastal Carolina, they went into halftime with a 14-7 lead. But they suffered a meltdown in the second half by surrendering 31 points, fueled by three straight turnovers that led to Chanticleers touchdowns in an eventual 38-20 loss. They lost, 36-22, the next week at North Texas — but they were competitive ten days ago in their overtime loss on the road against Troy. Now is the time for second-year head coach Major Applewhite to right the ship and get his team going again. The Jaguars performed well under him in his first season with them last year. South Alabama won five of their last seven games, including winning the Salute to Veterans bowl game against Western Michigan by a 30-23 score. It could even have been a better season when considering they blew three fourth quarter leads. They lost four of their six games, which were decided by one scoring possession. Admittedly, they are getting crushed in the transfer portal — they lost 11 expected starters in the offseason this year. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Gio Lopez transferred to North Carolina after spring practice. But Applewhite got back junior quarterback Bishop Davenport, who was the MVP of their bowl game — and he usually oversees productive offenses. Last year, South Alabama generated 442.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 18th and tied for 19th in the nation. The silver lining Applewhite can build around is their rushing attack as they have generated 230.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have rushed for at least 205 yards in each of those contests. And despite losing four cornerbacks in the transfer portal, the Jaguars' secondary is playing very well as they are holding their opponents to just 169 passing YPG. The advanced metrics confirm the strong play of their pass defense. They rank 17th in Opponent Expected Points Added per Dropback Allowed and 44th in Opponent Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Applewhite should have this team ready to play tonight. In his head coaching career, going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Houston, his teams have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Trojans — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. South Alabama has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. Arkansas State survived a shootout with Texas State in a game where each team exchanged two touchdowns apiece in the final three minutes. The Red Wolves pulled it out by scoring the winning touchdown in the final minute, culminating in a four-yard touchdown run from quarterback Jaylen Raynor with just seven seconds left in the contest. They got outgained by -121 net yards, with the Bobcats generating 519 yards against them. In their five games against FBS opponents, they are surrendering 500.4 total YPG. The Red Wolves hit rock bottom in head coach Butch Jones' third season after early 73-0 and 37-3 losses to Oklahoma and Memphis. But turning to Raynor saved the 2023-24 season as Arkansas State reached a bowl game. Last season, Arkansas State finished 8-5 after beating Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl by a 38-31 score. Raynor passed for 2783 yards and added another 387 yards on the ground. He orchestrated three game-winning drives with less than two minutes left in the game — and now he returns for his junior season. Give credit to Jones for staying resolved to building this program patiently by focusing on developing his good recruiting classes. Arkansas State is one of just three FBS programs that have seen their win total increase for three straight years (which does speak to how far they fell in 2021 when they finished 2-10). But while Raynor returns to lead the offense, only four other starters come back on both sides of the ball. There are some red flags. Despite going 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, they got outgained by -61 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play. They won all seven of their games, which were decided by one scoring possession. These red flags have proven prophetic. The defense has been a disaster under first-year defensive coordinator Griff McCarrey. They are giving up 7.2 Yards-Per-Play and 5.8 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry (which does not bode well against this thriving South Alabama ground game). Opponents are converting on 49.3% of their Third Downs against them. Their pass coverage is the worst in the Sun Belt Conference — opposing QBs are completing 68.0% of their passes against them and averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas State was averaging only 16.8 PPG against FBS opponents before playing Texas State. Now the Red Wolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games. 

FINAL TAKE: Applewhite will motivate his team to avenge an 18-16 upset loss on the road to this team on October 5th last season, despite being a 3-point road favorite. Applewhite’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games in his career when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the South Alabama Jaguars (304) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Washington Commanders (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-2) pulled off their second straight upset victory after their 25-24 win in Las Vegas as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 28th. Washington (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 27-10 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago upset the Raiders despite only gaining 271 yards in that game and getting outgained by -86 net yards. They escaped that game because of a +3 net turnover margin. The Bears' defense is better than what they displayed in Week Two against the Detroit Lions when they gave up 52 points and more than 500 yards of offense. They have played better the last two weeks by giving up only 38 combined points. Former New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen took over the defense in the offseason — and I expect that group to play better coming off their bye week and getting some key players back. Linebacker T.J. Edwards and nickel back are both expected to play tonight. The Bears have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win. They have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total after playing a game where they enjoyed a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points since head coach Dan Quinn took over last season. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home in the first half of the season. Quinn is building a defense in his image. While generating only 17 takeaways with a turnover rate of 8% of their opponent’s possessions last year was far below the numbers Quinn’s defenses enjoyed in Dallas, it would not be surprising if they forced more turnovers this season. After not forcing a turnover in their first three games, the Commanders have forced three turnovers in their last two games after taking the ball away twice against the Chargers last week. They held Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles offense to only 336 total yards. On the other side of the ball, the Washington offense is far from 100% given several injuries. With wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown both out for tonight’s game, look for the Commanders to rely on their rushing attack to move the ball.

FINAL TAKE: In the last 59 NFL games when the road team is coming off their bye week, the Under is 40-18-1. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Washington Commanders (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 27-10 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-2) pulled off their second straight upset victory after their 25-24 win in Las Vegas as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Jayden Daniels returned last week from injury to complete 15 of his 26 passes for 231 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He also ran for an additional 39 yards. Washington should build off their momentum since they are 25-16-1 ATS in their last 42 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after pulling off an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in four of their five games since Dan Quinn took over as their head coach. After my deep dive on this team in the offseason, I had more reasons for optimism than I thought I would. Including the postseason, they enjoyed a 9-2 record in games decided by seven points or less, including their miracle Hail Mary victory against Chicago. But offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury had the best season of his career in operating an offense. I have never been a big fan, but he deserves lots of credit for stewarding Daniels’ rookie season. His offense seemed to add a new layer schematically each and every week. He finally added some pre-snap motion into the mix, which made his typical up-tempo attack a little predictable. He always has been a strong designer of running plays — and Washington ranked third in the league by averaging 154.1 rushing Yards-Per-Game (but much of that was from Daniels' scrambling). I think second-year general manager Adam Peters had a very nice offseason. He made two splashy trades by acquiring wide receiver Deebo Samuel from San Francisco and left tackle Laremy Tunsil from Houston. A year removed from playing with a case of pneumonia last season, Samuels can be an interesting chess piece for Kingsbury. Adding Tunsil and then drafting left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. from Oregon is adding help and protecting the investment in their star franchise quarterback. Peters also signed or re-signed 12 players in free agency. Looking at their defense, it is not loaded with star players — but I kept on reading and re-reading descriptions like “versatile” or “chemistry-builder.” Second-year head coach Dan Quinn is building a defense in his image. While generating only 17 takeaways with a turnover rate of 8% of their opponent’s possessions last year was far below the numbers Quinn’s defenses enjoyed in Dallas, it would not be surprising if they forced more turnovers this season. But losing strong safety Jeremy Chin and defensive end Donte Fowler in the offseason stings. It was also surprising that Peters decided to cut bait on defensive tackle Jonathan Allen — but after the defense ranked 30th by allowing 137.5 rushing YPG last year, perhaps the coaching staff saw something. Clearly, there is an urgency to strike while the iron is hot with Daniels in his rookie contract. So far this season, Washington is outscoring their opponents by +6.6 Points-Per-Game. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played between Weeks Five through Nine. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home in the first half of the season since Quinn took over. Furthermore, Washington has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 meetings against the Bears. Chicago upset the Raiders despite only gaining 271 yards in that game and getting outgained by -86 net yards. They escaped that game because of a +3 net turnover margin. For the season, the Bears enjoy a 5 net turnover margin, which is probably not sustainable. They are getting outgained by -51.5 net Yards-Per-Game, which is resulting in them getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset victory. Additionally, the Bears have to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road in the first half of the season. Furthermore, this is a franchise that is just 30-44-1 ATS in their last 75 games as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: Since Quinn has taken over as head coach for this team, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their 8 games at home when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (273) and the Kansas City Chiefs (274). THE SITUATION: Detroit (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 37-24 victory at Cincinnati as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (2-3) had won two games in a row before their 31-28 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3.5-point road favorite on Monday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City’s offense was as alive as it has been in years, as they gained 476 yards. Getting Xavier Worthy back from injury two weeks ago was the necessary piece to make all the other weapons in the passing game go. But the Chiefs will not only have to deal with the Lions' defense but also with far from ideal weather conditions tonight. As of early this afternoon, there is a 55% chance of rain with an 11% of thunderstorms. The wind will be at 8 miles per hour with gusts up to 24 miles per hour. Goff has not fared well when playing outdoors in inclement weather. Wind and rain impact throwing, catching, and kicking the football. As it is, Kansas City has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 16 at home Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Detroit looked overmatched in their opening game on the road against the Packers — but now they are considered the best team in the NFC by many pundits after rattling off four straight victories. But perhaps we should not read too much into their victories against Chicago and Baltimore, which were dealing with significant injuries on defense. Getting to play Cincinnati and Cleveland were not very big tests either. Remember, they only gained 246 total yards against the Packers. Now the Lions enter this game with several impactful injuries. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out with a shoulder — and that challenges their offensive line, which struggled against Green Bay as they adjust to life without the retired Frank Ragnow at center and the loss of right guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. Their secondary is a M*A*S*H* unit as well. Cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Avonte Maddox are both out for this game with injuries. Additionally, safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both questionable. Unfortunately for Kansas City, the weather will impair Mahomes’ ability to go to work against that depleted secondary. The Lions will probably run the ball more, given their injury situations on both sides of the ball. They ran the ball 38 times in their upset victory at Baltimore earlier in the season as they wanted to limit the scoring opportunities for quarterback Lamar Jackson. Detroit has played 12 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 8-1-1 in their last 10 appearances on Sunday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 4 straight Unders when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (273) and the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (274) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (273). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-3) had won two games in a row before their 31-28 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3.5-point road favorite on Monday. Detroit (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 37-24 victory at Cincinnati as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the loss on Monday, there are plenty of reasons for Kansas City to feel good about that effort. Their offense was as alive as it has been in years as they gained 476 yards. Their Success Rate of 64% — a metric that measures gaining at least half of the yards necessary for a first down on standard downs or achieving a first down on third or fourth down — was the highest any team in the NFL has registered this season.  Getting Xavier Worthy back from injury two weeks ago was the necessary piece to make all the other weapons in the passing game go. They outgained the Jaguars by +157 net yards — but they simply could not overcome Jacksonville’s 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, which was effectively a 14-point swing in that game. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has won 14 of his last 17 games following a straight-up loss — and he will be leading a desperate team that does not want to drop to 2-4 on the season. The Lions are outscoring their opponents by +12.4 Points-Per-Game — but Kansas City has covered the point spread in 25 of their 39 games with Mahomes under center against opponents who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games with Mahomes against teams who are coming off a double-digit victory. Detroit looked overmatched in their opening game on the road against the Packers — but now they are considered the best team in the NFC by many pundits after rattling off four straight victories. But perhaps we should not read too much into their victories against Chicago and Baltimore, which were dealing with significant injuries on defense. Getting to play Cincinnati and Cleveland were not very big tests either. Now the Lions enter this game with several impactful injuries. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out with a shoulder — and that challenges their offensive line, which struggled against the Packers as they adjust to life without the retired Frank Ragnow at center and the loss of right guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. Their secondary is a M*A*S*H* unit as well. Cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Avonte Maddox are both out for this game with injuries. Additionally, safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both questionable. As it is, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games played on Sunday Night Football. Quarterback Jared Goff has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of his 12 starts as an underdog in night games. Additionally, the weather will be far from ideal this evening. As of early this afternoon, there is a 55% chance of rain with an 11% of thunderstorms. The wind will be at 8 miles per hour with gusts up to 24 miles per hour. Goff has not fared well when playing outdoors in inclement weather. On the other hand, Mahomes is very comfortable making things happen in conditions far from ideal. He has led the Chiefs to 26 victories in his 30 starts after 4:00 PM ET when the wind is 9 or more miles per hour — and he has led Kansas City to win 18 of their 22 games against teams who play their home games in a dome when the wind is 7 or more miles per hour.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they are 29-12-1 ATS in their 42 games with Mahomes under center as either an underdog or not laying more than 3.5 points as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (274) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (255) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (256). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-3) has lost three games in a row after their 22-21 upset loss against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-1) comes off a 40-6 blowout victory against Las Vegas as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona outgained the Titans by +47 net yards and enjoyed a 21-6 lead in the fourth quarter before giving that game away last week. Of course, running back Emari Demercado dropped the football just before running into the end zone, which would have been another Cardinals touchdown in the second half of that game. While he is being lambasted for what has been generally considered a selfish act, I think it is being wildly misinterpreted. Instead, I suspect Demercado’s blunder was a mental error committed out of desire for relief after the long scoring run — subconsciously, he wanted the play to be over, and his dropping the football prematurely was his version of wish fulfillment. It’s not as if he then embarked on some big end zone dance. It was a bad moment in a bad loss made even worse by head coach Jonathan Gannon’s physical encounter with Demercado on the sideline afterwards (way to go, tough guy!). Gannon later apologized to the team. I suspect the team rallies around each other this week. As it is, Arizona has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two or more games in a row. Additionally, teams coming off playing the Titans are 33-20-3 ATS in their nest 56 games. The Cardinals have lost their last three games by a combined five points. Quarterback Kyler Murray is not expected to play this afternoon due to a foot sprain that is a version of a Lisfranc injury — but backup Jacoby Brissett is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He started five games for New England last season — and in his career, he has thrown 53 touchdown passes to just 24 interceptions in his 87 games. In my deep dive on this team in the offseason, there were reasons for optimism for the Cardinals in the third season under head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort. After only winning four games in each of the last two seasons, they doubled that win total last year with an 8-9 mark. The defense took a big step forward from perhaps the worst unit in the league to the middle of the pack. After ranking second-to-last by surrendering 26.8 Points-Per-Game in 2023-24, Arizona cut -4.5 PPG off that mark last year by holding their opponents to 22.3 PPG, ranking 15th in the league. This defense ranked last in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now FTN) — but they improved to 14th according to those analytics last season. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis did a fantastic job in scheming that group up despite a rash of injuries on that side of the ball. The Cardinals ranked 29th in the NFL with 72.9 adjusted games lost to injury last year. They set an NFL record with 38.8 adjusted games lost to injury on the interior of their defensive line. The coaching philosophy is to rotate defensive linemen — so getting back Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones, who missed 26 combined games, will help. Expectations remain high on former first-round pick Darius Robinson, who missed most of his rookie season due to injuries as well. Ossenfort made a big splash in the offseason by spending $180 million on free agents — and four of those new players are expecting to be new starters in the front seven on defense. Joining the splashy new arrivals of defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Josh Sweat are six rookies, as Ossenfort invested his first five draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. First round draft pick Walter Nolen III will immediately enter the rotation of a suddenly strong defensive line — and they may have gotten a steal in the second round with cornerback Will Johnson, who was a consensus first round talent out of Michigan before injuries last year dropped his value. Johnson has met and exceeded even the most optimistic expectations so far this season. Arizona is only giving up 19.2 Points-Per-Game — and they have not given up more than 23 points in a game all season. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 50 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indianapolis is the surprise team of the season — but they only gained 317 overall yards last week in their blowout victory against the Raiders. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that easy victory. They have benefited from a favorable early schedule that included opportunities against Miami, Tennessee, and Las Vegas, all of which seem destined for losing records in the AFC. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. I’m not surprised that Daniel Jones is playing well now that he has a decent offensive line protecting him — but asking him to consistently beat NFL opponents by double digits is another task altogether. 

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC, including four of those five games played on the road. 20* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Arizona Cardinals (255) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (201) and the Texas Longhorns (202). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (5-0) has their first five games in a row this season after their 44-0 victory against Kent State as a 45.5-point favorite last Saturday. Texas (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 29-21 upset loss at Florida as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sooners’ quarterback John Mateer is expected to return to the field this afternoon since injuring his hand back on September 20th in their game against Auburn. He had surgery on his throwing hand — and it is not clear how effective he will be in the passing game. But Mateer is mobile — and even less than 100%, he offers the Oklahoma offense an upgrade over Michael Hawkins Jr. (which is why they grabbed him in the transfer portal in the offseason). The Longhorns defense will likely dare Mateer to beat them in the passing game given the injury. The Sooners offensive line has not been durable — they rank 89th in Line Yards, 95th in Tackles for Loss Allowed, and 88th in Havoc Allowed. But the Oklahoma defense has been better which may be a result of head coach Brent Venables taking over the play-calling as he did when winning national championships as the defensive coordinator for Clemson in his previous gig. The Sooners’ defense ranks top six in the nation in Havoc Rate, Opponent Success Rate Allowed, Opponent Quality Drives Allowed, and Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. They are holding their opponents to 193.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 7.2 Points-Per-Game — and they held both Michigan and Auburn to 17 or fewer points. Oklahoma has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory by 17 or more points. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral course since Venables became their head coach. Texas only gained 341 yards of offense against the Gators last week. Their offense ranks 116th in Third Down Efficiency. Much of the problem is quarterback Arch Manning, who it turns out was way overhyped in the offseason by people who had no idea what they were talking about. I didn’t know — but if Manning was this amazing prospect, then I was fully expecting him to be unleashes in the College Football Playoff if and when head coach Steve Sarkisian was facing a deficit. That was exactly the formula for success Nick Saban and him executed by turning from Justin Fields to Tua Tagovailoa in the national championship game against Georgia a few years ago. I worried that it was telling that Sark never played that card. I think we now why, now. In hindsight, when Manning got into games last year but got fooled at times when he took the field last year against Georgia, Florida, and even UL-Monroe now appears to be the canary in the coal mine. Give the kid time — his high school competition in Louisiana playing at Isidore Newman was not the most demanding strength of schedule. On paper, he has a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio — but his 10 Big Tim Throws to 10 Turnover Worthy Plays suggests he remains a work in progress, something Sarkisian certainly knows. He can’t bench him — imagine what that impact his recruiting! The flip side of hauling in a Manning at quarterback is that you are pot-committed. The Texas offense has a low Success Rate of 44% — which means they are not getting at least half the yards to move the chains on first or second down or getting a first down on third or fourth down in 56% of those plays. They are scoring only 3.7 points per drive inside their opponent’s 40-yard line. In their last four games, the Longhorns have executed only two methodical drives of ten or more plays. To be fair to Manning, the revamped offensive line that lost four starters is not gelling. But the Texas defense has been good as they are holding their opponents to 261.0 YPG which is resulting in just 12.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17.0 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are scoring 31 or more PPG. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total away from home. And in their 10 games as an underdog since Sarkisian took over, they have played 6 of their 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while Oklahoma is outscoring their opponents by +26.2 net PPG, the Longhorns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against opponents who are outscoring their opponents by +10 or more PPG. Texas is outscoring their opponents by +17.6 PPG — and the Sooners have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 or more PPG, including six of those games played away from home. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (201) and the Texas Longhorns (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (151) minus the points versus the Akron Zips (152). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) snapped their three-game losing streak to begin the season with a 25-14 victory at Northern Illinois as a 5-point road favorite last Saturday. Akron (2-4) has won two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset victory at home against Central Michigan as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Miami (OH) engaged in a difficult non-conference campaign that featured road trips at Wisconsin and Rutgers before hosting UNLV. The two games on the road against Big Ten schools were rough — but the RedHawks were very competitive against the revitalized UNLV program in a 41-38 loss three weeks ago. Head coach Chuck Martin uses an ambitious non-conference schedule to help prepare his team for conference play. They had their bye week after that loss — and they kicked off their Mid-American Conference season on the road by beating the Huskies. We were on Miami (OH) in that game — and I like what I saw. The RedHawks outgained the Huskies by +147 net yards while holding them to just 220 yards of offense. Despite trailing at halftime by a 14-10 score, they dominated that second half by outscoring Northern Illinois by a 15-0 score. They controlled the time of possession with their offense on the field for over 39 minutes of the game. Senior quarterback DeQuan Finn displayed his dual-threat skills by completing 14 of 26 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown (no interceptions) and adding another 91 yards on the ground from 21 rushes. Miami (OH) should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing with six days or less, including seven of those eight games played on the road. This team opened last season by losing four of their first five games — but they rattled off seven straight victories in conference play with an average winning margin of +20.4 Points-Per-Game before losing to Ohio in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-3 score. They bounced back by then beating Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl by a 43-17 score. In his 12th year with the program, Martin’s career 49-18 record in the MAC is the best mark in the conference during that span. The Miami (OH) coaching staff faced a big challenge this year with all 11 starters gone on offense, headlined by Brett Gabbert, who has been the team’s starting quarterback since 2019! Martin brought in the seventh-year senior Finn from Baylor to be the starting quarterback. He had been a previous three-year starter at Toledo. Martin brought in a handful of wide receiver transfers from Power Four conference programs — but the state and cohesion of a brand-new offensive line will be a big question. The defense has five starters back from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG — and Martin brought in three transfers to bolster the depth of this group. The RedHawks lost plenty of talent that made the All-Conference team, which may lower the ceiling regarding what this team can accomplish, but the consistency and culture that Martin has established should not be underestimated — and last week’s effort is a good sign for this team moving forward. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored, including five of those seven games played on the road. They have covered 13 of their last 19 games against conference opponents, including five of those six games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in Weeks 5-9, including five of those six games played on the road. And in their last 11 games played against teams with a losing record, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those contests . Akron opened the season by losing at home against Wyoming and then at Nebraska by a combined 78-0 score. They then lost at UAB against the dumpster fire that the Blazers team has become under previous high school head coach (circa winning the Super Bowl as the Baltimore Ravens quarterback before becoming an ESPN TV personality for years), Trent Dilfer. They beat an FCS opponent, Duquesne, before losing at Tulane by a 45-3 score. So last week’s upset victory against Central Michigan may speak more about the direction of the Chippewas' program under the first year of head coach Matt Drinkall, who had been Army’s offensive line coach for the last six years and struggled in his lone season as their offensive coordinator two years ago. As it is, the Zips have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win at home. It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of this team. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023, and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017, headlined by an upset win in overtime against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season, and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress. The two-deep is full of freshmen in what will now be a two-year plan for Moorhead. Akron is 17-30-1 ATS in their last 48 games played at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The road team in this series has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (151) minus the points versus the Akron Zips (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (105) minus the points versus the New York Giants (106). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (4-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday in a 21-17 upset loss at home against Denver as a 4-point underdog. New York (1-4) comes off a 26-14 loss on the road against New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: It takes plenty of evidence for me to endorse and invest in a road favorite of a touchdown or more points playing a divisional rival. The short week complicates matters. My database indicates that road teams coming off a loss now playing on a short week Thursday are 27-14-1 ATS. On the other hand, home teams playing on a short week Thursday are just 23-37-1 ATS. My conclusion from that data is that the betting public may overrate the benefit of playing at home when needing to bounce back from a loss on a short week. The lack of practice time does impact coaches’ ability to significantly address issues from the loss. Admittedly, Philadelphia is not playing at the level they were in the postseason. They are experiencing “identity” issues on offense. But let’s contextualize all that. Their schedule has been brutal. They opened the season against a Dallas team that is better than advertised, given a healthier Dak Prescott. They then played four playoff teams in a row: at Kansas City, the LA Rams, at Tampa Bay, and Denver. Here is what we should be able to expect in tonight’s game: they are not going to make many mistakes. Philly has committed only one turnover all season. While Saquon Barkley’s mere six carries last week was infuriating for those of us holding Eagles tickets, it does mean he will be fresh for this game despite the quick turnaround. The Giants rank last in the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) Run DVOA metrics. New York is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 28th in Opposing Rushing Success Rate Allowed. I suspect Philadelphia simply grinds their way to a victory by two scoring possessions — and this approach of running the ball, not making mistakes, and playing tough defense travels. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. New York has scored only 44 combined points in their last three games. And while I do think the offense is in better shape with rookie Jaxson Dart under center rather than that stat-padder that Russell Wilson has become in the twilight of his career, injuries are depriving him of his best weapons in the passing game. Malik Nabors is out the year after his torn ACL injury — and the Giants have scored 50 combined points in the three games played without him. To make things even worse, WR2 Darius Slayton will miss this game due to a hamstring injury. The challenge was already going to be stiff with the rookie quarterback having to decipher defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s defensive schemes — especially when Fangio even made Patrick Mahomes look silly in the Super Bowl last February. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss, including five of those eight games played at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against fellow NFC opponents, including six of those eight games on the road. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against NFC rivals. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road at MetLife against the Giants. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (105) minus the points versus the New York Giants (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Giants (106). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (4-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday in a 21-17 upset loss at home against Denver as a 4-point underdog. New York (1-4) comes off a 26-14 loss on the road against New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We were on the Eagles on Sunday in a bitter loss where they blew a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter. The officiating was infuriating in that game — every coin flip call went the Broncos ' way in that second half. But the cold, hard truth that I have accepted is that something is wrong with this Philadelphia team. The two-hour “meeting” between Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and A.J. Brown that took place this week is all the evidence one needs that all is right. Double-long marriage sessions rarely work — and I am skeptical that this meeting fixed the Philly offense. There is an emerging conventional wisdom that the Eagles “lack an identity!” I disagree. I think they have a screaming out loud identity of the cocky jerk who thinks he is better than he really is — and doesn’t that seem to be a description of head coach Nick Sirianni? They doubled-down in their faith and reliance on the tush-push in the wake of league wide concerns about the safety of the play (and while the NFL messaging on this has been incoherent with bad arguments about fairness and “is it an NFL play”, there are serious safety concerns that come from rugby who banned scrums when they reach the point of contact similar to what the tush-push generates). That aside, the situation certainly made a team that already has a huge chip on their shoulder (the head coach has a personal security guard, Big Dom). I don’t think the Eagles ran the ball only 11 times last week, while having Hurts drop back to pass 44 times was simply to make Brown happy. His eight targets were two behind Devonta Smith’s ten targets. No, I think that undefeated team decided: “the media does not think we pass enough? Fine, we will pass the ball 80% of the time against the Broncos and still win!” And that explains why they did not use Barkley much in the fourth quarter to protect their lead last week (only two designed runs in the second half, to my exasperation). He only had six carries in the game! Philadelphia’s identity is of the insecure man feeling the need to disprove every critic by feigning an aura of invincibility (and, ironically, exposing their limitations by that process). But the other uncomfortable truth with this team is that Barkley is not performing at the same level as he did last season. The fantasy football community was very concerned about his 345 carries in the regular season and his 482 overall touches last season, when including the playoffs. There is interesting historical data indicating running backs with high usage like that experience declines in production the next year. After Barkley ran for 88 yards in Week One, he has since run for 60, 46, 43, and then 30 yards in each subsequent week. Even more concerning, after leading the NFL by averaging 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry in the second half last season, he is only averaging 2.65 YPC in the second half this year. Those concerning numbers for this offense are then compounded by the absence of left guard Landon Donovan tonight, who is out with an ankle injury. Who knows what demon Sirianni and this team will feel they must slay this week — but it probably involves feeding Barkley the rock frequently, despite his seeming loss of explosiveness. As it is, the Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. They have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 30 road games Under the Total with Hurts healthy and under center. New York has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have scored only 44 combined points in their last three games. And while I do think the offense is in better shape with rookie Jaxson Dart under center rather than that stat-padder that Russell Wilson has become in the twilight of his career, injuries are depriving him of his best weapons in the passing game. Malik Nabors is out the year after his torn ACL injury — and the Giants have scored 50 combined points in the three games played without him. To make things even worse, WR2 Darius Slayton will miss this game due to a hamstring injury. The challenge was already going to be stiff with the rookie quarterback having to decipher defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s defensive schemes — especially when Fangio even made Patrick Mahomes look silly in the Super Bowl last February. On the other side of the ball, my offseason deep dive on this team led to the conclusion that I was kinda bullish on the New York defense given their pass rush. This unit got torched against Washington and Dallas — but in their last three games since, they are limiting their opponents to 325.3 total Yards-Per-Game and have not surrendered more than 338 yards in that span. The Giants have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season, including all 10 of those games played at home. They have played 26 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their 32 home games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog since Brian Daboll took over as their head coach. 

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These two teams have also played 10 of their 14 meetings at night Under the Total, including eight of those 11 games played at MetLife Stadium. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Giants (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (486) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (485). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 26-21 upset win at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (2-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-20 victory against Baltimore as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City generated 382 yards of offense last week — and while I have not been as fatalistic about the Chiefs’ offense as others, it is hard not to conclude that is what happens when playing this Ravens team that has simply been ravaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore lost several more players to injuries during that game. Houston gained 417 yards against the Ravens yesterday en route to their 44 points — and the Texans might have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Kansas City’s offensive line remains a work in progress. Getting wide receiver Xavier Worthy back last week certainly helped — he caught five balls on eight targets. But the Chiefs need wide receiver Rashee Rice back as well before their offense can get unleashed. They had not scored more than 22 points all season before getting the opportunity to play Baltimore. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in those last six occasions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points. On the other side of the ball, their run defense remains a concern this season after Philadelphia exposed the interior of the defensive line. General manager Brett Veach added defensive tackle Jerry Tillery from Minnesota and then drafted defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott from Tennessee in the second round in the offseason — but their reputations are more positive regarding their interior pass rush skills rather than stopping the run, so that is an area that will need to be monitored. Kansas City’s defense ranked 28th in the league in Opponent Power Run Success Rate Allowed. So far, the results are not encouraging as the Chiefs rank bottom-five in both Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and Opponent Expected Points Added per Rushing Attempt Allowed. They are surrendering 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and that plays right into what the Jaguars’ first-year head coach, Liam Coen, wants to do on offense. Coen has run-first philosophies with his play-calling to set up quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the passing attack. Running back Travis Etienne has thrived with 394 rushing yards in his first four games — and the Jacksonville offense is generating 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The biggest improvement the Jaguars have seen this season has been on the defensive side of the football. Last year, their defense was second-to-last in the league by surrendering 389.9 total YPG. That unit was hampered by a pass defense that was last in the NFL by giving up 257.4 passing YPG — and they were also last in the league in Expected Points Allowed per Dropback. Rookie head coach Liam Coen tapped Anthony Campanile as his defensive coordinator — and the first good decision Campanile made was to change the defensive philosophy from man coverage on passing downs to more zone coverage, which better matches their personnel. So far this season, Jacksonville is surrendering only 316.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in their opponents scoring only 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Their pass defense is giving up 233.5 passing YPG, which is an improvement by more than 20 yards. The biggest difference from last season is that the Jaguars have forced 13 turnovers already, after only generating nine takeaways last year. While I do not expect this defense to average anywhere close to three takeaways per game, Campanile has them playing more aggressively, which is helping to create these turnover opportunities. They have held three of their four opponents to no more than 21 points. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset victory with Lawrence under center. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in October. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (486) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (485). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (485) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (486). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-20 victory against Baltimore as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 26-21 upset win at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The biggest improvement the Jaguars have seen this season has been on the defensive side of the football. Last year, their defense was second to last in the league by surrendering 389.9 total YPG. That unit was hampered by a pass defense that was last in the NFL by giving up 257.4 passing YPG — and they were also last in the league in Expected Points Allowed per Dropback. Rookie head coach Liam Coen tapped Anthony Campanile as his defensive coordinator — and the first good decision Campanile made was to change the defensive philosophy from man coverage on passing downs to more zone coverages which better matches their personnel. So far this season, Jacksonville is surrendering only 316.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in their opponents scoring only 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Their pass defense is giving up 233.5 passing YPG, which is an improvement by more than 20 yards. The biggest difference from last season is that the Jaguars have forced 13 turnovers already, after only generating nine takeaways last year. While I do not expect this defense to average anywhere close to three takeaways per game, Campanile has them playing more aggressively, which is helping to create these turnover opportunities. They have held three of their four opponents to no more than 21 points. The offense has put up at least 26 points in three of their four games — but they have had a favorable schedule so far this season. They scored 26 points against a suspect Carolina defense. They scored 27 points against a terrible Cincinnati defense. The 26 points they scored last week against a 49ers defense playing at far from full strength due to injuries. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing their previous game on the road. They have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. Kansas City generated 382 yards of offense last week — and while I have not been as fatalistic about the Chiefs’ offense as others, it is hard not to conclude that is what happens when playing this Ravens team that has simply been ravaged with injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore lost several more players to injuries during that game. Houston gained 417 yards against the Ravens yesterday en route to their 44 points — and the Texans might have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Kansas City’s offensive line remains a work in progress. Getting wide receiver Xavier Worthy back last week certainly helped — he caught five balls on eight targets. But the Chiefs need wide receiver Rashee Rice back as well before their offense can get unleashed. They had not scored more than 22 points all season before getting the opportunity to play Baltimore. The defense remains very good this season — they are giving up only 16.3 PPG and have held three of their four opponents to no more than 20 points. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. On the road, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total away from home in the first half of the season. The Chiefs have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road when favored by up to seven points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (485) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (484) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (483). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 31-19 victory at home against New Orleans as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 42-13 victory against Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo is scoring 33.2 PPG — and they have scored at least 31 points in all four of their contests. I have not been surprised by the continued explosiveness of this offense. Many observers thought the Bills were destined to take a step back last season after saying goodbye to wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I disagreed because I like the increased reliance on the run game once Joe Brady took over at offensive coordinator for Ken Dorsey late last season. In my deep dive last year, I wrote: “Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons.” Sure enough, Allen only threw six interceptions all season — and his eight turnovers (accounting for two lost fumbles) were the only giveaways the offense experienced all season. That is spectacular. Not making those mistakes — and Allen taking only 14 sacks all season — helped the offense rank second in the NFL by scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game. They reached the 30-point plateau 13 times while scoring at least 27 points 15 times and getting to 40 or more points three times. Even with some regression in the turnover department, the offense should remain explosive. The outstanding offensive line remains intact. A common criticism is that Buffalo lacks the prototype WR1 target, but the balance (and lack of drama) from the array of targets may be just what Allen needs to thrive. And there are reasons for optimism. Both Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kinked played through injury. Second-year wideout Keon Coleman should continue to grow. Allen did throw an interception last week — but it was the team’s first turnover of the entire season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games against fellow AFC rivals. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Last week’s final score is a bit illusory since the Patriots only gained 307 total yards and got outgained by -19 net yards. New England is surrendering 245.1 passing Yards-Per-Game after Las Vegas and Miami passed for  333 and 297 yards against them in their opening two games, before they played better against the water pistol passing attacks of Pittsburgh and then the Panthers in the last two weeks. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 29 games as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: For Sunday Night Football, home teams coming into the contest off a straight-up win have covered the point spread in 22 of those last 37 circumstances. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (484) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (483) and the Buffalo Bills (484). THE SITUATION: New England (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 42-13 victory against Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 31-19 victory at home against New Orleans as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots’ offense is operating at a high level in the season with Drake Maye under center. He leads the NFL by completing 74% of his passes after completing 14 of his 17 passes last week for 203 yards. To stay competitive in this game, Maye may have to be prepared to get into a shootout given the state of New England’s pass defense. The Patriots are surrendering 245.1 passing Yards-Per-Game after Las Vegas and Miami passed for  333 and 297 yards against them in their opening two games, before they played better against the water pistol passing attacks of Pittsburgh and then the Panthers in the last two weeks. The Bills are generating 6.3 Yards-Yer-Play this season — and New England has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against opponents who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP. The Patriots have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5-9.5 points. Buffalo has played 11 of their last 14 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They are scoring 33.2 PPG — and they have scored at least 31 points in all four of their contests. However, their defense has shown cracks. Baltimore gained 432 yards and scored 40 points against them in their Week One shootout. The Jets did not do much against them in Week Two — but Miami was able to move the ball and extend drives while scoring 21 points against them two weeks ago. Even the Saints last week exposed their run defense by gaining 189 yards on the ground. Buffalo has been an elite team for five straight seasons — but it is their defense that is holding them back. In their 12 playoff games since 2020, they are surrendering 24.2 PPG — and in their five losses, they have given up 33.2 PPG. In head coach Sean McDermott’s 50 games coaching this team as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range, the Bills have played 29 of those games Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 14 of their last 22 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5, including all four of those games played at home. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (483) and the Buffalo Bills (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Texans (473). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 37-20 upset loss at Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-3) snapped their three-game losing streak to start the season with a 26-0 shutout victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is a M*A*S*H unit right now, with quarterback Lamar Jackson out, along with many defensive starters. But this is a proud franchise that began the season with one of the best rosters in the league. I expect them to play an inspired game much like the San Francisco 49ers did on Thursday — and you know head coach John Harbaugh will fire his team up with the fact that they are the underdogs in this game. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when Jackson did not play. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush has proven himself capable — he has a career 9-5 record in his 14 starts with the Dallas Cowboys. In the 12 games he played last year, he threw 12 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Expect a heavy dose of running back Derrick Henry in this game. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The struggles of this team can be directly pinpointed back to general manager Nick Caserio, a clown who has never drafted a player from a Group of Five or FCS program in his 41 selections for the Texans. That is a much longer rant. Caserio is also responsible for Houston’s terrible offensive line, that is ruining C.J Stroud, an area where he invested $52.3 million last season, the sixth most in the NFL. That group had an Adjusted Sack Rate of 9.1% of their drop back passes, as compared to their 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate in 2023-24. Quarterback C.J. Stroud enjoyed a clean pocket in only 59% of his drop backs, ranking second-to-last (just above Deshaun Watson) for qualifying quarterbacks. Granted, three starters are gone from that group, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom Caserio traded to Washington. He struggled with run blocking. There were red flags on left guard Kenyon Green. Paying Shaq Mason may not be prudent. But who are the replacements? Cam Robinson was signed from Minnesota at left tackle. Jacksonville benched him midseason, before trading him to the Vikings. He leads a pack of free agent signees that are classic retreads, with the only variation being either (a) wait until you see them return to form recovering from injury, or (b) maybe a new environment can get the remaining fuel out of his tank. These are low-end band aids solutions to what was a bad offensive line last year. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 21 games when favored with Stroud under center. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings against the Texans. 8* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Texans (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (467) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (468). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-3) has lost and failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after their 25-24 upset loss at home against Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-20 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week after quarterback Geno Smith threw three interceptions. But the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss at home. Head coach Pete Carroll will have his team ready to go this afternoon -- his teams have covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games in his NFL head coaching career when they are on a three-game losing streak. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their 20 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. If there is a Tom Brady Effect to his becoming a minority owner of this franchise, it is that it has triggered a professionalization of the brain trust. Carroll comes in after his year's sabbatical as a young 73-year-old, having done this before by overseeing the rebuilding of the Seattle Seahawks into a Super Bowl winner and perennial powerhouse in the NFC. General manager John Spytek has the resume of a reliable evaluator of player management that failed under the previous general manager from his Chargers’ days, Tom Telesco, lacked. This team can take a page out of the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles' 55.7% run-to-pass ratio with first-round draft pick Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. Running the ball more will help the defense. Despite going 4-13 last year, they got outgained by only -29.9 net Yards-Per-Game due to a defense that ranked 15th by giving up only 333.1 total YPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Colts began the post-Jim Irsay era with many people on the hot seat. That appeared to be the case before their owner passed away in May. His three daughters have taken over running the team. Indianapolis has not made the playoffs since 2020 -- and their last postseason victory was in 2018. If that trend continues, one would think that general manager Chris Ballard would be relieved of his duties and a new GM would replace Shane Steichen with their own choice at head coach. Ballard drafting lately has produced some solid starters along with some flops — but not many home runs. The result is a team that has gone 17-17 in the two seasons under Steichen after last year’s 8-9 record. The Colts benefited from an 8-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They got outscored by -2.9 Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -26.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis committed three turnovers last week, with quarterback Daniel Jones throwing two interceptions. He will not have wide receiver Alex Pierce for this contest. The defense will be without their outstanding nickel back, Kenny Moore. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but road underdogs playing a non-divisional conference rival who have not covered the point spread in three or more games in a row are then 52-32-2 ATS in those last 86 circumstances. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (467) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (470) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (469). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 31-25 victory at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 28-3 victory at home against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia is not earning enough style points for much of the national football pundits after only passing for 130 yards last week and only gaining 200 total yards. Never mind their defense that is surrendering only 333.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and opposing quarterbacks are completing only 56.9% of their passes against them. Never mind that their special teams are elite — they scored on a 35-yard punt return for a touchdown last week against a very good Buccaneers team on the road. Since last October 1st, they have a 20-1 mark with their only loss being a game against Washington when quarterback Jalen Hurts got injured on their second drive of the game and did not return. They limit their own mistakes and have only turned the ball over once this season. Philadelphia should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. After closing out the 2023-24 season in a 32-9 dumpster fire loss against Tampa Bay, I had plenty of skepticism regarding the Eagles heading into last season. I described the hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator as “high-risk, high-reward.” After winning the Super Bowl by beating their last two opponents by 50 combined points, it is safe to say that general manager Howie Roseman pushed the right buttons. He was responsible for the two most important moves last offseason. The first was signing Saquon Barkley as a free agent. Behind an elite offensive line, the running back led the league by averaging 3.0 yards before contact en route to his 2005 rushing yards in the regular season. In the postseason, he averaged 125 rushing Yards-Per-Game. More importantly, his ability to generate big plays even against stacked boxes allowed the offense to ask less of Hurts. In my deep dive last year, I voiced concern about Hurts’ career-high 15 interceptions, with opposing defenses too often goading him into bad decisions in the passing game against stacked boxes. With Barkley, Philly could still stick with the run against stacked boxes — he averaged 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against stacked boxes, with that number rising to an 8.1 YPC clip in the fourth quarter. The Eagles averaged a league-low 26.3 pass attempts per game. But Hurts only threw five interceptions all season. After struggling against the blitz the previous year, Hurts was more effective when facing additional rushers last season — and he did not throw an interception against the blitz after tossing seven picks against additional rushers two years ago. He also thrived in the passing game against single safety coverage that stacked the box to slow Barkley down. Yet bringing in Vic Fangio to run the defense was perhaps even more impactful. The veteran defensive coordinator deployed a base nickel defense 80% of the time, with his best decision being to insert rookie Cooper DeJean into the starting lineup as their nickel back slot defender after their bye in Week Five. After a 2-2 start, the Eagles only gave up more than 23 points once in their final 17 games with DeJean as a starter. Fangio also deserves kudos for unlocking the talents of most of the high draft picks that Roseman tapped from the University of Georgia. Frankly, the whispers were that the fitness of some of those players was not the best. Fangio rotated them more, so they were fresher late in the game. Fangio also discovered a diamond in the rough in linebacker Zack Baun, who went from an afterthought signing in free agency from New Orleans to a first-team All-Pro member. Baun became a tackling machine, moving from the outside to an inside linebacker in Fangio’s two-high safety pre-snap schemes. These changes, along with Fangio’s mentorship, eventually generated breakout seasons from defensive tackle Jalen Carter and linebackers Nolan Smith Jr. and Nakobe Dean, validating Roseman’s faith in tapping key players from past Georgia defenses. Philadelphia was able to generate a pass rush without relying on the blitz — and that was the key since it unleashes his ability to present deceptive pre-snap looks. While the Eagles' defense ranked last in blitz rate, they ranked third by simulating pressure 37.9% of the time. Their fastest time to pressure rate of 2.31 seconds was the sixth fastest in the league. Philly led the NFL in both Yards-Per-Game Allowed and Yards-Per-Play — and they embarrassed Kansas City (and me for picking the Chiefs) in the Super Bowl. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 18 of their 25 home games under Sirianni when favored by less than 10 points. When Hurts is under center, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 20 games at home as an underdog or favorite of less than six points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Broncos are only allowing 16.8 Points-Per-Game, but Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games against teams that are not allowing more than 19 PPG. And while Denver is scoring 24.0 PPG, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who are scoring 24.0 or more PPG. Denver comes into this game supposedly off a dominant performance on Monday night — a true statement for only those who did not watch the game but looked at the final score and box score the next day. I am becoming more aware of how much of our football punditry does not bother to watch many games, even the ones in prime-time. The Broncos were sloppy and not very good in the first half of that game. They committed seven penalties for 72 yards. But the Bengals were an utter disaster and completely unprepared to play despite suffering a humiliating loss the previous week. After scoring their field goal on their opening drive, Cincinnati went most of the rest of the game going three-and-out — and that is why Denver eventually started to put points on the board since the already bad Bengals defense simply became exhausted. And this is precisely the MO I realized this Broncos team had last season as well, when conducting my deep-dive on them this summer: Denver are flat-track bullies who melt when they finally have to play good teams. I was skeptical about the Broncos heading into last season. I was hesitant to read too much into the team’s 7-4 finish that resulted in a respectable 8-9 final record. Four of their wins were by three points or fewer (and eight combined points), with a midseason five-game winning streak fueled by forcing 16 turnovers during that span. The Broncos led the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries, which is some turnover good fortune reminiscent of Payton’s Super Bowl run with New Orleans in 2010. That level of turnover success — nor a trip back to the Super Bowl — ever occurred again for Payton in the Big Easy. Denver got outscored by -3.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -71.4 net Yards-Per-Game in Payton’s first year in Denver. So it is from that perspective that I concede what a fantastic job Payton did last year in getting the Broncos into the playoffs with a 10-7 record. He proved his doubters wrong with his faith and the development of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. After understandably stumbling out of the gate, Nix won nine of his last 14 starts while completing 67.2% of his passes with 29 touchdown passes, only eight interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 101.2. That all said, were last year’s results indicative of the trajectory of this team — or did it demonstrate what great coaching and a soft schedule can accomplish? Denver only outgained their opponents by +7.5 net YPG. They once again won the turnover battle with a +6 net turnover margin, tied for tenth best in the league. They went 4-0 versus the NFC South and added victories against the New York Jets, Cleveland, and Indianapolis. Their 38-0 victory in Week 17 against Kansas City was a game where they rested their starters. Even with that result, the Broncos ranked last in total defense in December — and they surrendered 30 or more points in four of their last six games (including that shutout against the Chiefs’ second-stringers). They got exposed in their 31-7 loss at Buffalo in the AFC wild card round in a result that was eerily similar to their 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore on November 3rd. Which brings things back to Nix. Were his good numbers simply a result of Payton’s offensive genius? Having a good head coach who does not make decisions that dig holes for his team really helps. Nix ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics when playing with a lead. In one-score games, he dropped to 15th in DVOA. But when he was playing from behind (and in more obvious pass situations, given the need to score), his DVOA ranking dropped to 30th. On second-and-long or third-and-long, he ranked 19th in DVOA. His play deteriorated significantly against better defenses. DVOA measures defensive stats in relation to league averages — so a negative final number indicates a defense that was better than the average NFL defense. Denver scored only 14.3 PPG against these above-average defenses with a negative DVOA number. Against below-average defenses with a positive DVOA, the Broncos score 29.5 PPG. That is a major red flag, suggesting that this was an offense that thrived against bad defenses and that Nix’s best moments were during positive game scripts when Payton could dial up pass plays when the defense had to respect the Denver rushing attack. Usually, the Broncos’ 1-6 record in games decided by one-scoring possession would be something I would expect to even out over time by the Regression Gods. However, it needs to be considered that the -5 net close losses illustrate Nix’s ineffectiveness in those situations. The Broncos have lost eight of their 12 games on the road with Nix as their starting quarterback — and they have lost five of their six games on the road against playoff teams with Nix under center. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 11 games as an underdog with Nix as their quarterback. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have lost both their games on the road this season — and they have surrendered 137.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in those two contests, which has to have Barkley and the Eagles’ offensive line chomping at the bit. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points.  

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have only outscored their first four opponents by 20 combined points — which is a negative talking point for some. But NFL teams who have won four games in a row by less than 30 combined points during that span are then 50-24-2 ATS in those last 76 circumstances. 25* National Football League Game of the Month is with the Philadelphia Eagles (470) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (401) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (402). THE SITUATION: Nevada (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Western Kentucky two weeks ago as a 7.5-point underdog on September 20th. Fresno State (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 23-21 victory at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point favorite back on September 21st (early!). 

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Nevada probably deserved better in their loss to the Hilltoppers. They went into halftime with a 10-3 lead — and they got burned by a 48-yard kickoff return for a touchdown on special teams. They outgained Western Kentucky by +10 net yards despite the 15-point loss. The Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after losing two games in a row. First-year head coach Jeff Choate got the most out of his talent last season. The Wolf Pack opened the season with a 3-4 mark, which included upset victories against Oregon State and Troy, along with a narrow 29-24 loss to a playoff-bound SMU. They also played playoff-bound Boise State tough in a 28-21 loss. But they lost their last six games of the season — and while going 2-6 in games decided by one possession is often a sign of some bad luck, too often this Nevada team lacked discipline and made mistakes late in the game that cost them dearly. Despite a winless record in their seven games in the Mountain West Conference, they only got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Choate has a good track record as the head of Montana State and then the defensive coordinator for Texas. After inheriting a team that got outscored by 16.1 net Points-Per-Game, Nevada only got outscored by -5.7 net PPG last season. Choate is probably going to push enough of the right buttons to get his group to overachieve once again. The Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games from Week Five to Week Nine. Fresno State got outgained by -19 net yards by the Rainbow Warriors — they benefited from a +2 net turnover margin, and they returned a 59-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice that game. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win against a fellow Mountain West Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. They played that game without 15 of their regulars, including quarterback Mikey Keene. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turn around the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. But Warner remains a work in progress — he has five touchdown passes and five interceptions this season, and his two Big Time Throws to eight Turnover Worthy Plays this year are even worse. Fresno State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games from Weeks Five to Week Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in conference play. The Bulldogs are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 games when favored by more than 10 points at home against MWC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The road team is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 games between these two teams. 25* CFB Mountain Conference West Underdog of the Month with the Nevada Wolf Pack (401) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (361) minus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (362). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (1-3) won their first game of the season last week in an easy 38-0 victory at home against Lindenwood from the FCS as a 22-point favorite. Northern Illinois (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 6-3 loss against San Diego State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) had lost their first three games of the season after their 41-38 loss at home against UNLV as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 20th. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a straight-up loss in their last game against an FBS opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October, including four of those five six games played on the road. Now, after enduring a difficult non-conference schedule that included two tough road trips at Wisconsin and Rutgers before hosting a rejuvenated Rebels program two weeks ago. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against fellow Mid-American Conference opponents. This team opened last season by losing four of their first five games — but they rattled off seven straight victories in conference play with an average winning margin of +20.4 Points-Per-Game before losing to Ohio in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-3 score. They bounced back by then beating Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl by a 43-17 score. Chuck Martin returns for his 12th season as the head coach — and his career 49-18 record in the MAC is the best mark in the conference during that span. The Miami (OH) coaching staff faces a big challenge this year with all 11 starters gone on offense, headlined by Brett Gabbert, who has been the team’s starting quarterback since 2019! Martin brought in a seven-year senior, DeQuan Finn from Baylor, to be the starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB was a previous three-year starter at Toledo. Finn is questionable to play after getting injured two weeks ago in the UNLV game and then not playing last week. Senior QB Henry Hesson has been solid in relief — including completing 13 of 21 passes for 208 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Martin brought in a handful of wide receiver transfers from Power Four conference programs — but the state and cohesion of a brand-new offensive line will be a big question. The defense has five starters back from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG — and Martin brought in three transfers to bolster the depth of this group. The RedHawks lost plenty of talent that made the All-Conference team, which may lower the ceiling regarding what this team can accomplish — but the consistency and culture that Martin has established should not be underestimated. Miami (OH) has coed the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois managed only 179 yards of offense last week against the Aztecs. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They come off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois is moving away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. The defense will be run by Rob Harley, who served as the defensive coordinator for Arkansas State in the last four seasons. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, head coach Thomas Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover. Northern Illinois is just 5-22-2 ATS in their last 29 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. 

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 visits on the road at Northern Illinois. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (361) minus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (362). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (309) and the San Jose State Spartans (310). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 38-20 victory against New Mexico State as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Jose State (1-3) has lost three of their first four games this season after their 30-29 loss at Stanford as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lobos offense has been improving every week — and they posted season highs in both scoring and with their 476 yards of offense in their victory against their in-state rival last week. They have scored at least 32 points in three straight games. After a 4-8 campaign last year, the Lobos lost first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall to fellow Mountain West Conference rival, Utah State. New Mexico turned to the FCS by hiring Idaho head coach Jason Eck. In his three seasons with the Vandals, he turned around a program that had only 15 wins in the previous four seasons by posting a 26-13 record in his tenure — and his team made the FCS playoffs in all three seasons. The former Montana State and South Dakota State offensive line coach has a challenge of transforming a program that has only one winning season in the last 17 years. This season will be a test case in how FCS players can perform at a higher level since the Lobos lost more than 30 players in the transfer portal before Eck brought in 11 players from the Big Sky conference. Junior quarterback Jack Layne came over with Eck from Idaho, passing for 1477 yards with 14 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions last year. Against the Aggies last week, Layne completed 23 of 30 passes for 303 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He is completing 78% of his passes. New Mexico has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The other side of the ball remains a work in progress for the Lobos. Eck inherited a unit that surrendered 492.1 Yards-Per-Game and 38.0 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 130th and 129th in the FBS, respectively. Their three starters that returned are supported by a plethora of transfers. They are giving up 367 YPG, which is an improvement — but after giving up 452 yards in their opening game against Michigan, they have faced some lighter offenses since against Idaho State, UCLA, and then New Mexico State last week. They are giving up 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and they are allowing their opponents to convert 41% of their Third Downs against them. New Mexico ranks just 132nd in the FBC in Havoc Rate — and they only had two sacks in their first three games before exposing the Aggies’ offensive line with nine sacks. Now the Lobos go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. San Jose State has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo did a fantastic job last year, replacing seven-year head coach Brent Brennan, who took the head coaching job at Arizona. The Spartans had lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal. The former 15-year head coach at Navy proved he had more than one trick up his sleeve by abandoning the spread triple option rushing attack for a quick-passing Run-and-Shoot and Air Raid hybrid scheme. He found the right offensive coordinator in Chris Stutzmann, who had been the passing game coordinator at Texas State. San Jose State generated 321.8 passing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking fifth in the FBS. This passing attack really took off when Walker Eget took over under center in the sixth game. The senior returns at quarterback with four other starters on offense, having averaged 301 passing yards YPG in his seven starts. Last week, Eget completed 36 of his 58 passes for 473 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Spartans generated 524 total yards and 7.3 YPP while almost completely abandoning their rushing attack. Wide receiver Danny Scudero has stepped up to replace Nick Nash, who went on to the NFL — his 514 receiving yards are the third-most in the FBS. The heavy reliance on their passing game generates a game script that helps higher scoring games — and so does their likelihood to go for it on fourth down in the Red Zone due to shoddy field goal operations. San Jose State is scoring 30 PPG in their last two contests. But the defense is struggling after giving up 481 yards to the Cardinal last week. That unit returned 14 of the 22 players who got at least one start last season including seven players who had seven or more starts. But while much more experience returns, the Spartans arguably have less talent, with perhaps their top two players from that unit transferring. They rank just 111th in Defensive Havoc this season — and they have generated only six sacks and 16 Tackles for Loss in their four contests. They are surrendering 32 PPG in their last three games. San Jose State has played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lobos have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 7 straight Overs against opponents who are not winning more than 25% of their games, including all four of those games played on the road. 10* CFB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (309) and the San Jose State Spartans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (301) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (3-1) lost their first game of the season in a 26-21 upset loss at home against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-1) rebounded from their loss on the road against Philadelphia with a 27-20 victory against Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco is riddled with injuries — but it’s just too many points to lay on a short week between division rivals. Quarterback Brock Purdy is out once again with a turf toe injury. Mac Jones will play in his absence — and he was already led the Niners to victories against Arizona and New Orleans this season. Despite losing defensive end Nick Bosa and free safety Malik Mustapha to injury, the 49ers are holding their opponents to 280.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. I was skeptical about this team in the preseason — but even with the injuries, expecting the Rams to cover a point spread of more than touchdown spread against a bitter rival seems ambitious. Under Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as an underdog against a fellow NFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. I know the conventional wisdom has become the Los Angeles defense is elite — but I’m not buying yet. In theory, the unit should be up-and-coming given all the young talent that Snead has successfully identified in the last few NFL drafts. He addressed their porous run defense by signing defensive tackle Poona Ford in free agency. The bigger problem is their pass defense. While this unit has exciting young pass rushers, the analytics speak loudly that their ability to generate pressure did not translate into slowing down passing attacks. Los Angeles was (only) 14th in Pressure Rate — but when they did pressure the quarterback, they only converted it into a sack 16% of the time, ranking 30th in the league (best exemplified by Jared Verse, who had 76 pressures in the regular season but only 4.5 sacks). Even worse, the defense ranked last in the NFL in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed when they did generate pressure. The problem was pass coverage, especially with the cornerbacks. Opposing quarterbacks under pressure still were able to find “open receivers” (two to five yards of separation from the closest defender) 34.1% of the time. These QBs found “wide open receivers (five or more yards of separation from the closest defender) 11.9% of the time. Both those marks were fourth-worst in the NFL — and the combined 46.0% clip of opposing QBs under pressure still completing passes to either open or wide open receivers was the worst in the league. The problem for second-year defensive coordinator Chris Shula was that sending additional pass rushers only made things worse — and he needed to blitz. When sending only four rushers, the Rams had a below-average pressure rate of 27%. When sending an additional rusher, their pressure rate dialed up to 48% which was the fifth-highest in the league — but that sacrifices another body in pass coverage. Shula’s defense ranked second-to-last in Pass Explosiveness Allowed when sending five or more rushers. Snead did not add a defensive back in free agency nor the draft — but they did lose cornerback Tre'Davious White in free agency, who returned to Buffalo. Any talk that the Rams are Super Bowl contenders needs to be tempered by the fact that they got outscored by -1.1 net Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -21.y net Yards-Per-Game last season. They benefited from a +6 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 10th. We can look at the Rams defensive numbers in their first four games — but they got to play Houston (and their terrible offensive line) and Tennessee in their first two games before the Eagles and Colts in their last two games, where they surrendered 26.5 Points-Per-Game against those two opponents. 

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 11 of the last 13 games in this series — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last six games with Shanahan facing off against McVay. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (301) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Los Angeles Rams (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (3-1) lost their first game of the season in a 26-21 upset loss at home against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-1) rebounded from their loss on the road against Philadelphia with a 27-20 victory against Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers are a M*A*S*H unit right, especially on offense. Quarterback Brock Purdy is out once again with a turf toe injury. Mac Jones will play in his absence — but he is not 100% dealing with a knee injury. The weapons in the wide receiving room are all backups with Brandon Aiyuk still on the PUP with a knee — and now Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are out with ankle and knee injuries. Additionally, tight end George Kittle has been out with a hamstring injury. That leaves the Niners with Demarcus Robinson, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their wide receivers. To compound matters, left guard Ben Bartch is on IR with an ankle injury. The offense only gained 326 yards last week in their loss to the Jaguars. But despite losing defensive end Nick Bosa and free safety Malik Mustapha to injury, the 49ers are holding their opponents to 280.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. San Francisco endured a -4 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 19 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go on the road for the first time in three weeks — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, while the Rams are generating 388.3 total YPG, the 49ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against opponents that are averaging 350 or more YPG. Los Angeles is averaging 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, yet San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against opponents who are averaging 7.0 or more YPA in the passing game. Los Angeles held the Colts to only 333 total yards last week. They are only surrendering 284.5 total YPG, which is resulting in just 20.3 PPG. They have eight different players with multiple sacks already. The Rams might be without both right tackle Rob Haverstein and tight end Tyler Higbee, who are both doubtful with ankle and hip injuries. San Francisco is forcing only 0.8 turnovers per game — and Los Angeles has played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams that are not forcing more than -10 turnovers per game. They have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in games played in October. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Los Angeles Rams (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (279) and the Denver Broncos (280). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-1) had won two games in a row before their 48-10 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Expect backup quarterback Jake Browning to play better this week as well. He completed 19 of 27 passes last week, but for only 140 yards — and he had the two interceptions. When he had to start seven games for an injured Joe Burrow in 2023, he led the team to four victories. In his career with the Bengals entering the season, he has completed 70.4% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions. It does not take a rocket scientist to discover that it is the play of the Bengals' defense that is holding them back. Cincinnati lost four games where they scored at least 33 points — and despite scoring 25 or more points 11 times, they posted a 5-6 record in those contests. Management decided to blame Lou Anarumo for the failures of the defense. He is well-respected in NFL circles — and he was the one who began deploying the two-high safety scheme to success against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half of their AFC Championship Game back in 2023, which continued to stymie Mahomes for much of the 2023-24 season. But his schemes are complicated — and they may need elite player-coaches on the field like safety Jessie Bates III to implement and execute his ideas. Unquestionably, letting Bates go in free agency the next offseason was a mistake. Anarumo simplified some of his concepts late in the year — not only did the Bengals win their final five games to finish 9-8, but many players on defense were more effective (especially starting free safety Geno Stone). But the writing was on the wall, and Cincinnati parted ways with Anarumo to hire Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. It’s a good hire. But my fundamental question with this team is whether “Blame Lou” is simply whitewashing the true critique of Blame Duke. Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has drafted ten players in the first three rounds of the NFL draft since 2022. Yet players like defensive linemen Kris Jenkins and Myles Murphy, along with defensive backs Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner II, Dax Hill, and Jordan Battle, have either underachieved or looked like outright busts entering the new season. Perhaps Golden can unleash their potential. But he is a first-time defensive coordinator in the NFL — and his fondness for linebackers may not match the modern NFL that often devalues that position in terms of drafting and the paying of second contracts. Denver enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed as the favorite. And while the Bengals are surrendering 30.3 Points-Per-Game, the Broncos have played 7 straight Overs against teams who are surrendering 24 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (279) and the Denver Broncos (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (279) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (280). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-1) had won two games in a row before their 48-10 loss at Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati was a disaster last week — they endured a -5 net turnover margin with two of those giveaways resulting in an 87-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 34-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. That will not happen again. Expect backup quarterback Jake Browning to play better this week as well. He completed 19 of 27 passes last week but for only 140 yards — and he had the two interceptions. When he had to start seven games for an injured Joe Burrow in 2023, he led the team to four victories. In his career with the Bengals entering the season, he has completed 70.4% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 40 or more points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 28 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have covered the point spread in 20 of those contests. Denver only managed nine first downs last week against the Chargers’ defense. Bo Nix completed 14 of 25 passes but for only 153 yards in what was one of the seven lowest efforts in terms of passing yards in his young career. In those six other games following those six other low passing yards performances for Nix, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. In his 37 plays where he had the ball, he posted a Success Rate in just 24.3% of those plays. I am not terribly surprised that Nix is struggling. Were his good numbers simply a result of Payton’s offensive genius? Having a good head coach who does not make decisions that dig holes for his team really helps. Nix ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics when playing with a lead. In one-score games, he dropped to 15th in DVOA. But when he was playing from behind (and in more obvious pass situations, given the need to score), his DVOA ranking dropped to 30th. On second-and-long or third-and-long, he ranked 19th in DVOA. His play deteriorated significantly against better defenses. DVOA measures defensive stats in relation to league averages — so a negative final number indicates a defense that was better than the average NFL defense. Denver scored only 14.3 PPG against these above-average defenses with a negative DVOA number. Against below-average defenses with a positive DVOA, the Broncos score 29.5 PPG. That is a major red flag, suggesting that this was an offense that thrived against bad defenses and that Nix’s best moments were during positive game scripts when Payton could dial up pass plays when the defense had to respect the Denver rushing attack. Usually, the Broncos’ 1-6 record in games decided by one-scoring possession would be something I would expect to even out over time by the Regression Gods. However, it needs to be considered that the -5 net close losses illustrate Nix’s ineffectiveness in those situations. Frankly, I was skeptical about the Broncos heading into last season. I was hesitant to read too much into the team’s 7-4 finish that resulted in a respectable 8-9 final record. Four of their wins were by three points or fewer (and eight combined points), with a midseason five-game winning streak fueled by forcing 16 turnovers during that span. The Broncos led the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries, which is some turnover good fortune reminiscent of Payton’s Super Bowl run with New Orleans in 2010. That level of turnover success — nor a trip back to the Super Bowl — occurred again for Payton in the Big Easy. Denver got outscored by -3.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -71.4 net Yards-Per-Game in Payton’s first year in Denver. So it is from that perspective that I concede what a fantastic job Payton did last year in getting the Broncos into the playoffs with a 10-7 record. But were last year’s results indicative of the trajectory of this team — or did it demonstrate what great coaching and a soft schedule can accomplish? Denver only outgained their opponents by +7.5 net YPG. They once again won the turnover battle with a +6 net turnover margin, tied for tenth best in the league. They went 4-0 versus the NFC South and added victories against the New York Jets, Cleveland, and Indianapolis. Their 38-0 victory in Week 17 against Kansas City was a game where they rested their starters. Even with that result, the Broncos ranked last in total defense in December — and they surrendered 30 or more points in four of their last six games (including that shutout against the Chiefs’ second-stringers). They got exposed in their 31-7 loss at Buffalo in the AFC wild card round, in a result that was eerily similar to their 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore on November 3rd. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing the Chargers in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home in the first half of the season. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Payton’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games played in prime-time -- and Denver is 10-18-2 ATS in their last 30 games played at night. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals failed to cover the point spread by 35 points last week to Minnesota — but NFL teams coming off a point spread loss by 30 or more points who are now playing on the road as an underdog are 22-9-1 ATS in those last 32 occasions. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (279) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Dallas Cowboys (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 13-10 upset loss at Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (1-2) has lost two of their first three games after their 31-14 upset loss at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: My deep dive on the Packers this summer concluded with this speculation: “Maybe this is a roster of very nice players that remains limited because it simply lacks the handful of superstar game-changers that are essential to win games in the postseason.” After acquiring pass rusher extraordinaire Micah Parsons, Green Bay may have added the ideal player they needed to take that defense to the next level. They are holding their opponents to just 232.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 14.7 Points-Per-Game. But on the other side of the line of scrimmage, they may be without two starting offensive linemen for this game, as left guard Aaron Banks is doubtful with a foot injury and right tackle Zach Tom is out with an oblique injury. Admittedly, the Packers’ depth is good on the offensive line — but this offense is generating only 300.0. Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Unders after losing on the road in their last game. They have also played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored, including four of those five games on the road. Dallas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. Parsons will certainly be fired up to take the field against his former team. But don’t underestimate how motivated the Cowboys defense will be to prove they play well without him. Dallas has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are winning 60-75% of their games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing on Sunday Night Football. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Green Bay (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 13-10 upset loss at Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two of their first three games after their 31-14 upset loss at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 13-10 upset loss at Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: My initial take for this game was to lean towards the Packers coming off their upset loss — especially with Dallas being without in their injured wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. But after assessing the historical situational data, frankly, this situation screams to back the Cowboys. I usually do not include the empirical situational angles in my ever-evolving database in my (already long) Reports that help inform my decisions, but I am making this Report an exception. Last week, I was not going to be surprised if the Miami Dolphins quit on head coach Mike McDaniel in their Thursday night game at Buffalo — but while the final score finished right around the point spread (the Dolphins covering the spread in most spots) despite the Bills dominating in the yardage battle, there is no question that the team played hard for their embattled head coach. Big underdogs early in the season usually play very hard — especially at home. In the first nine weeks of the season, home underdogs of seven or more points are 38-10-2 ATS since 2020 — and they are 19-1-2 ATS in those last 22 games in the last three seasons. If Miami overachieved for Thursday Night Football last week, it is not difficult to see the Cowboys rallying around each other in the return of Micah Parsons, and all the drama that entails. In fact, this may be the Dallas Super Bowl — and they know this game is very important for both them and their owner, Jerry Jones. Expect an inspired effort from the Cowboys who have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in prime-time. Remember, Dallas played well in their Week One loss at home against Philadelphia. They like first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer — and he has done a fine job. Their loss last week at Chicago was due to a -4 net turnover margin. They outgained the Bears by +11 net yards, with the offense generating 396 yards. Quarterback Dak Prescott looks more like the one from two years ago, when he finished second in the MVP voting, than last year, when he struggled to play through injuries. The loss of Lamb hurts — but wide receiver George Pickens might be the best second option for this team since Amari Cooper was playing here in his prime. Running back Javonte Williams looks rejuvenated. They have weapons to design a good game plan, even with Lamb. Green Bay was the toast of the league after the first two weeks — and they enjoyed a 10-0 lead going into the fourth quarter last week on the road at Cleveland before an interception from Jordan Love and a few other mistakes led to the collapse. Blowing leads like that is often a canary in the coal mine. Previously undefeated NFL teams coming off a blown double-digit lead in their first loss of the season have then lost 16 of their next 23 games — and they are just 8-14-1 ATS in those contests. And when those wobbly one-loss teams are playing on the road, they have lost 12 of those 17 games while going just 6-10-1 ATS. After being anointed as the Super Bowl favorite from the NFC early in the season, it is not difficult to think that Green Bay will remain overconfident now playing against a Cowboys team that they have beaten five times in a row in Dallas, including their last meeting in their 48-32 beatdown in the playoffs two seasons ago. With Matt LaFleur as their head coach, the Packers have covered the point spread in 19 of their 32 games after a straight-up loss — but while Aaron Rodgers and Malik Willis are 14-5 for LaFleur coming off a loss, quarterback Jordan Love has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those 13 games when he is under center. Love is still making too many erratic decisions — and the 14 penalties this team committed last week have to be a concern. To compound matters, Green Bay may be without two starting offensive linemen for this game as left guard Aaron Banks is doubtful with a foot injury and right tackle Zach Tom is out with an oblique injury. Admittedly, the Packers’ depth is good on the offensive line — but this offense is generating only 300.0. Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Granted, the Dallas pass defense has not been good — they are giving up 288.0 passing YPG. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. And while the Cowboys are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against opponents who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. 

FINAL TAKE: But what about this outstanding defense since the Packers acquired Parsons? They are only giving up 14.7 PPG! In the last 44 games played on Sunday Night Football involving a team that is not giving up more than 19 PPG, those teams with great defenses failed to cover the point spread in 25 of those 44 games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (260) minus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (259). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-2) has lost two of their first three games this season after their 30-0 upset loss at Carolina as a 5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (2-1) has won two of their first three games after their 41-24 win at home against Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Atlanta got embarrassed last week against a Panthers team that also upset them in their final game of the regular season last year. Second-year quarterback Michael Penix did not play well. He only completed 18 of his 36 passes for 172 yards — and he threw two interceptions, one that was returned for a touchdown. Frankly, I think too many in the media have anointed him already, having arrived as a star in this league. But Penix only completed 58.1% of his passes last season with a Passer Rating of 78.9 — and his three starts were against the New York Giants, Washington, and Carolina, which had some of the worst defenses in the league. Yeah, he passes an eye test because we all want to believe — but he is a work in progress. That said, I expect the young quarterback to bounce back this week after getting benched late in that game for Kirk Cousins. Nothing is better than a bad game to get a young player to refocus on fundamentals. Second-year head coach Raheem Morris has been very good in his coaching career in getting his team to respond to adversity. Morris’ teams going back to his first tenure with Tampa Bay have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games following an upset loss — and his Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games following an upset loss. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 9 of their 15 games after a point spread loss with Morris as their head coach. Don’t blame the Falcons’ defense for that loss — they held the Panthers to just 224 yards of offense. Atlanta outgained Carolina by +108 net yards and won the first down battle by a 17-15 margin. A -2 net turnover margin did not help their cause — but in their 4 games with Morris as their head coach, when they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin, they then covered the point spread in their next game 3 times. The Falcons' defense looks significantly improved this season. General manager Terry Fontenot finally addressed the pass rush by drafting Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker and then trading up for Tennessee linebacker James Pearce Jr. in the first round. They are holding their opponents to 329.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have already forced five turnovers and registered eight sacks. They host a banged-up Commanders team missing some key pieces on offense. Quarterback Jayden Daniels will miss his second straight game with a knee injury. Starting wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are both out with a quad and a groin injury, leaving the wide receiver room very thin for veteran backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. Rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is banged up with a knee injury, but will try to play through it — yet the depth of the running back room is also an issue after the team traded away Brian Robinson before Austin Ekeler suffered his season-ending ACL injury. Washington benefited from a 90-yard punt return for a touchdown in their win against the Raiders last week. But the Commanders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 runs more points in their last contest. Not many people had the Commanders penciled into the NFC Championship Game before the season started. Including the postseason, they enjoyed a 9-2 record in games decided by seven points or less, including their miracle Hail Mary victory against Chicago. They only outgained their opponents by +39.7 net Yards-Per-Game. Daniels was the special sauce that helped them win close games — and I don’t think Mariota offers that kind of juice, especially when playing on the road. Losing strong safety Jeremy Chin and defensive end Donte Fowler in the offseason stings. It was also surprising that Peters decided to cut bait on defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. Another lingering concern is that last year’s group ranked as the sixth-oldest roster, weighted for snaps played. Aggressive trading left the Commanders with only five picks in last April’s draft — only two in the top 100 — and they are already without their second and fourth round picks for the 2026 draft. The margin of error has gotten thin — which makes the injury bug they are currently suffering more grave. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons become just the eighth team in the history of the NFL since 1990 to get shut out despite laying four or more points as the favorite. Six of those seven previous teams rebounded to win their game — and five of them covered the point spread. 25* National Football League Game of the Month is with the Atlanta Falcons (260) minus the point(s) versus the Washington Commanders (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (251) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (252). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (2-1) has won two of their first three games this season after their 48-10 win at home against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (2-1) has won two of their first three games as well after their 21-14 win at New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Crove Park in Dublin, Ireland. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Regarding those 48 points scored by the Vikings, 14 of them came from an 87-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 34-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. Minnesota only gained 352 yards of offense — but they went into halftime with a 34-3 lead by completing controlling the game script through an eventual +5 net turnover margin. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they enjoyed a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. Scoring two defensive touchdowns certainly made things easier for backup quarterback Carson Wentz, making his first start for the team just about a month after going the team after training camp. Facing the Steel Curtain Pittsburgh defense led by T.J. Watt is a significantly tougher challenge than what the Bengals offered. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 11 games away from home Under the Total after a straight-up win. Like Minnesota, the Steelers were the beneficiaries of plenty of giveaways as they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But they only gained 202 total yards of offense against the Patriots. I have zero confidence in the Aaron Rodgers experiment working — but I do appreciate the irony of this organization moving on from Russell Wilson’s stat-padding to turn to the OG of empty calorie stat-building in Rodgers. Rodgers is a talker at this point in his career. If he were to say it’s sunny outside, I would grab my umbrella. I appreciate his second-half numbers for the New York Jets last season were enough to entice some that he still has some gas in the tank — and good for him for winning his personal Super Bowl in Week One this season by leading the Steelers to the victory while throwing four touchdown passes. Since that game, he is completing just 60.7% of his passes while averaging 171 passing Yards-Per-Game and 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. At least Wilson runs a little more when putting up bee-bee gun numbers like that — but Rodgers has only ran past the line of scrimmage six times for three net yards in his three games. Even if I’m wrong about this one (but I have been making money being right about Rodgers for years now), he’s 41 years old, whose next birthday is in December — and the historical comparisons in the history of the NFL are not encouraging. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly, as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a recent major injury, either while playing at a high level at 40 years old, as Rodgers has so far not really demonstrated. My concerns about the Steelers go well beyond their quarterback. Not only do they have their fourth straight new starting quarterback in the last four seasons, but they also said goodbye to their top running back, Najee Harris, and their top wide receiver, George Pickens. While those individual decisions were all justifiable, in the previous 13 times in NFL history when a team lost their top QB, RB, and WR, their average winning percentage the next season was just .364 — and just two of those teams had winning records with the 2016 New Orleans Saints moving to Drew Brees at quarterback were able to win 10 or more games. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road in the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their contests. 

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. 8* NFL Minnesota-Pittsburgh NFL Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (251) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (204) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (203). THE SITUATION: Colorado (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 37-20 victory at home against Wyoming as a 12-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after a 34-13 win at East Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado head coach Deion Sanders benched senior quarterback Kaiden Salter after some sluggish play early in the season. He did not look like the player who starred at Liberty as a three-year starter. After a 36-20 loss at Houston two weeks ago, Sanders turned back to Salter last week — and the dual threat responded with his best game for the Buffaloes. Salter completed 18 of 28 passes for 304 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions while adding another 86 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Colorado should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. Sanders draws plenty of media coverage for his antics (while drawing attention to the program that attracts recruits and transfers) — but he is very underrated as a teacher and leader of men as a head coach. His teams continue to improve as evidenced that they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after the first month of the season, including seven of those eight games played at home. Sanders deserves a lot of credit for overseeing significant improvement on both sides of the ball last season. The offensive line improved — and the offense scored +4.7 more Points-Per-Game and generated +29.6 more Yards-Per-Game. Their 32.9 PPG mark ranked 31st in the nation. The growth on defense was even more profound as they surrendered -101.4 fewer YPG and -11.7 PPG. After ranking 113th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings the prior year, they rose to 43rd in that metric last season. The result was a 9-4 season where they were in the mix to play for the Big 12 conference championship game in late November, and they reached a bowl game (losing to BYU in the Alamo Bowl by a 36-14 score). When considering that Coach Prime inherited a program that hit rock bottom in 2022 with a 1-11 season and only winning season in 16 years, reaching nine wins in Year Two is remarkable. Six starters return, plus at least another 30 players in the transfer portal. There continues to be reasons for optimism. The Buffaloes should have their best offensive and defensive lines in his tenure — and those are the areas that are hardest to build from scratch. It looks like he found the right people in offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and defensive coordinator Robert Livingstone, who both bring a wealth of NFL experience to the table. But Colorado now must replace the heart and soul of their team, the last two seasons, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. The loss of Hunter is devastating since he was a generational talent making significant contributions as a lockdown cornerback and a wide receiver who was so good that the Jacksonville Jaguars are prioritizing his getting comfortable at that position for them before they bring him along in their secondary. Sanders' slide to the fifth round in the NFL draft should not diminish his importance to this team.  He completed 74% of his passes last year for 4134 passing yards — and he accounted for 37 touchdowns. But his father was not shy about bringing in his replacement. In what was considered a “down” season, Salter still passed for 4762 passing yards and added 1840 non-sack rushing yards, and got into the end zone 66 times. Coach Prime also brought five-star freshman quarterback Julian “JuJu” Lewis. The Buffaloes have not run the ball much the last two years — whether that was because of the state of the offensive line or head coach Sanders wanting to showcase his son’s talent in the passing game to audition him for the next level — that will change this season. Both Salter and Lewis are dual-threat options under center — and both will likely have packages. More balance in their offensive attack should help their offensive line and their defense by keeping that group off the field a little more. Colorado has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against fellow Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, including seven straight point spread covers when playing at home. BYU has been racking up the frequent flyer miles after their trip to the East Coast last week. That game with the Pirates was much closer than the final score suggested, as the Cougars only outgained them by +14 net yards and lost the first down battle by a 24-20 margin. BYU benefited from a +2 net turnover margin — and one of their touchdowns came from an ill-advised pass that was intercepted for an easy four-yard touchdown. The Cougars surrendered 404 yards of offense, which begs the question regarding how good this defense is after losing seven starters from last season’s club. BYU has played an easy schedule so far this season — taking on Stanford and Portland before last week. Given the transfer of quarterback Jake Retzlaff to Tulane, the Cougars are starting a true freshman under center. Bear Bachmeier has been good leading the offense — but this is, by far, his toughest challenge yet in terms of both talent and the experience of Livingstone as the Buffaloes’ defensive coordinator. Coming off a 5-7 season two years ago, BYU was one of the surprise teams in the nation last year after finishing with an 11-2 record. They enjoyed four net upset victories on the season. But playing with the burden of expectations is much different — and it is telling that the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 23 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points since Kalani Sitake took over as their head coach. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road after the first month of the season. 

FINAL TAKE: Sanders should have his team very prepared and fired up to avenge their 36-14 upset loss against this BYU team in the Alamo Bowl last December. That game was much closer than the scoreboard suggests, as Colorado only got outgained by -14 net yards. Getting stopped on fourth down inside the red zone did not help their cause, nor did their -2 net turnover margin. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games as an underdog under Sanders’ leadership, including four of those five games played at home. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Colorado Buffaloes (204) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (197) and the Georgia Bulldogs (198). THE SITUATION: Alabama (2-1) rebounded from their Game One loss at Florida State with two straight victories after their 38-14 win against Wisconsin as a 17.5-point favorite back on September 13th. Georgia (3-0) remained unbeaten so far this season after their 44-41 win in overtime at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite on September 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide generated 454 yards last week against the Wisconsin defense. They have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total from Weeks Five through Nine. Alabama has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total in the first half of the season. They are getting very encouraging quarterback play from Ty Simpson, who threw for 382 yards last week. He is completing 71.9% of his passes with a 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has nine touchdown passes and zero turnover-worthy plays. He has been helped by a good offensive line that ranks 11th in Stuff Rate Allowed. Simpson leads an offense that is generating 459.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 42.7 Points-Per-Game. Seeing the debut of running back Jam Miller will only make this offense more explosive — he has missed the first three games to injury. Georgia has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have not covered the point spread in their three games this season — and they have played 8 of their 9 home games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games since Kirby Smart took over as their head coach. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total from Weeks Five through Nine. Quarterback Gunnar Stockton is completing 70.8% of his passes with an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He threw for 304 yards against the Volunteers two weeks ago. He leads an offense that is generating 470.3 total YPG, which is resulting in 39.0 PPG. Against Tennessee, Georgia averaged 5.8 Yards-Per-Play while gaining 502 total yards. They had a 60% Success Rate on standard downs. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams scored 75 combined points last September 28th in the Crimson Tide’s 41-34 victory in Athens. Both teams topped 500 yards in that game, with 1066 combined yards generated in that contest. These two teams have played 10 of their last 13 meetings against each other Over the Total. 8* CFB Alabama-Georgia ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (197) and the Georgia Bulldogs (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (177) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) had won their first games of the season before a 45-10 loss at Mississippi as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. Tulsa (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 19-12 upset victory at Oklahoma State as a 10-point underdog last Friday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Despite beating two Power Four conference opponents already, Northwestern and Duke, it’s not terribly surprising that Tulane was not competitive against Ole Miss. But second-year head coach Jon Sumrall should have his team ready to play as the team begins conference action. Sumrall’s teams have covered the point speed in 10 of their 12 games played in Weeks Five through Nine, going back to his previous tenure with Troy. The Green Wave comes off a 9-5 season in Sumrall’s first year with the team that ended on a sour note with three straight losses, which included a 35-14 loss at Army in the American Athletic Conference championship game before ending the season with a 33-8 loss against Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. Despite that slide, this remains a program that has won 32 combined games in the last three seasons while reaching the conference championship game all three years. This is a remarkable achievement for Tulane, which averaged only 4.2 wins a year from 1999 to 2021. Sumrall kept going last year from where previous head coach Willie Fritz left off -- and Power Four conference teams are on notice because the roster was raided in the offseason. But Sumrall is fighting back by being very aggressive in the transfer portal, bringing back talent. He has added at least 20 players with starting experience at the FBS level — and the result is a de facto all-star team from mid-major FBS and lower-tiered football programs. The Green Wave have only five starters back — the total number of cumulative starts from the returning players is 72. The transfer players have 114 additional combined starts. On paper, the talent on the roster should put them in a position to compete once again for the conference title. In my deep dive on the team in the summer, the biggest question was at quarterback after the team lost Darian Mensah in the portal to Duke. Sumrall brought in two FBS quarterbacks in the portal to compete for the job, but felt the need to add Brendan Sullivan from Iowa after spring practice. It is not a good sign when the results from spring practice compel one to turn to Iowa for answers at quarterback. And it is not a good sign either when one only gets two starts under center for the Hawkeyes, as Sullivan did last season. But when sexual offense charges were dropped in July against BYU quarterback Jake Rentzlaff, he became a viable target in the transfer portal since the Cougars had suspended him for seven games for violating their moral code policy regarding premarital sex. It’s safe to say that colleges in New Orleans operate on different standards. Rentzlaff is a capable dual-threat quarterback who passed for 2947 yards and added another 417 rushing yards while leading BYU to an 11-2 season last year. Tulane has covered the point spread in 50 of their last 75 games when favored over the years — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when laying the points. Additionally, Sumrall’s teams have covered the point spread in 16 of their 21 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games on the road when favored. Tulsa comes off defeating a reeling Cowboys team that fired their long-time head coach, Mike Gundy, after the game. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season. This team continued their descent last year with a 3-9 campaign that led to Kevin Wilson getting fired after the second-to-last game in just his second season. Tulsa has lost 23 of their last 33 game after posting a 7-17 record under Wilson. While the former Indiana head coach and Ohio State offensive coordinator found some intriguing players on offense, the defense was a disaster, and the culture inside the program was a mess. They got outscored by 31 Points-Per-Game in their final four game while surrendering 613 Yards-Per-Game. They surrendered 496.8 total YPG for the season, which resulted in 42.0 PPG, ranking 131st and 132nd in the nation. Six of their losses were by 30 or more points. In hindsight, Wilson’s need to air his negative opinions regarding NIL and failure to adapt to the times to establish an NIL program contributed to the negative atmosphere in the building. In comes 35-year-old Tre Lamb, who is considered one of the bright up-and-comers in head coaching. He coached at Gardner-Webb from 2020 to 2023, where he turned that program around and reached the FCS playoffs in his final two seasons there. He moved to East Tennessee State last year, where he inherited a 3-8 team and led them to a 7-4 mark. Tulsa returns only six starters, but an NIL program has been established to help attract and retain talent. The rebuilding challenge Lamb faces is massive, but change was desperately needed. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite in this series has covered the point spread in 17 of the last 19 meetings between these two teams. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (177) minus the points versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (106) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (105). THE SITUATION: Virginia (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 48-20 victory against Stanford as a 16.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after a 66-10 win at home against Kent State as a 45-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia started well this season — their only loss was by four points on the road against North Carolina State. The 31 points they scored against the Wolfpack were the lowest number they have put on the scoreboard this season. After a 5-7 campaign where they ranked 101st in the nation by surrendering 408.3 total Yards-Per-Game, head coach Tony Elliott went all-in on the transfer portal with a roster loaded with players in their final year of eligibility. Elliott brought in more than 30 transfers — including more than ten after his spring practice. He is definitely on the hot seat — but pulling the upset in this nationally-televised game would go a long way to change the narrative. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games since the loss to NC State, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They are getting great play from senior quarterback Chandler Morris. The North Texas transfer has thrown for over 1000 yards already while completing 71% of his passes. He has eight touchdown passes and just one interception. He leads an offense that ranks in the top 30 in Expected Points Added per both Pass Play and Run Play. Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played in Weeks Five through Nine. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. In my deep dive on the Seminoles last year, my biggest question regarded whether head coach Mike Norvell was ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture. Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? After the nightmare of last season, when Florida State collapsed to a 2-10 record, some answers became apparent. Norvell is completely dependent on living — and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out — most notably with quarterback D.J. Uigalelei. The Seminoles ranked 130th and 132nd in the nation by scoring only 15.4 Points-Per-Game and 270.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Norvell is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. The Seminoles are certainly better this year, as their opening week victory against Alabama demonstrated  — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs. The coaching staff was overhauled despite them being the ones who were in charge during their 13-1 campaign two years ago. Just looking at the quarterback situation demonstrates the crapshoot Norvell is now in. He brought in senior Tommy Castellanos, who, on paper, seems like a great fit with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The mobile quarterback was originally recruited by Malzahn at Central Florida. He later transferred to Boston College, where he ran for 1100 yards two years ago. But Castellanos completed only 57.3% of his passes and threw 14 interceptions that season. He improved those numbers last year by completing 61.5% of his passes and throwing only five interceptions. But head coach Bill O’Brien still eventually benched him. Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility, as last season demonstrated. To compound matters, he comes into this week with an ankle injury that he suffered in the game against the Golden Flashes last week — he has been limited in practice. This is the Seminoles' first game on the road this season, where they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games, including six of their last nine games away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against fellow ACC rivals. Additionally, the have failed to cover the point spread 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season, including six of those nine games on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points in Elliott’s tenure. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Virginia Cavaliers (106) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (101) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (102). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 44-13 victory against New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (2-1) had won two games in a row before their 16-15 loss at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Saints to just 284 yards. They are giving up only 15.7 Points-Per-Game this season, with none of their three opponents scoring more than 17 points against them. The continued excellent play on defense should not be a surprise, given the immediate impact Macdonald was able to make for the Seahawks last season. Inheriting a group that was ranked 28th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders, Seattle’s defense rose to 10th in Defensive DVOA last year. They held five of their last eight opponents to 18 points or less. Such dramatic improvements are vulnerable to the plexiglass principle the following season, with the efficiency taking a few steps back — but there are substantive reasons to believe the progress on this side of the ball is sustainable. The Baltimore Ravens experienced a learning curve adjusting to Macdonald’s defensive approach when he was the defensive coordinator. The mixed fronts and pressures from basic presentations that disguise post-snap schematic adjustments are complicated. Player versatility is a must. Furthermore, Macdonald had the courage to accept that some things were not working midseason and made fundamental changes at linebacker. First, the team traded starting middle linebacker Jerome Baker, an offseason free-agent signing, to Miami for Ernest Jones IV on October 24th. The team then released Tyrel Dodson on November 11th. Then, rookie Tyrice Knight was elevated into the starting lineup in Week 10 after their bye week. Jones IV became a tackling machine in Macdonald’s system. Knight was an upgrade. The run defense significantly improved by ranking sixth in DVOA from Week 10 to the end of the season. This improvement allowed the Seahawks' safety to play back in pass coverage. Macdonald could also deploy more nickel defense with five defensive backs since nickel back Devon Witherspoon is so effective in the box in run defense. In their last eight games, Seattle ranked fourth in Points-Per-Game Allowed and fifth in Yards-Per-Game Allowed. Macdonald has 13 of the top 14 players in snap count back from that unit. So far this season, they rank fourth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Rush Attempt. They also enjoy a pass rush win rate at a 52% clip. This strong play on defense helps them play well on the road, where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Arizona got outgained by -95 net yards last week in their narrow loss on the road against the 49ers. We were on the Cardinals in that game — and they were in position to pull off the upset due to a +1 net turnover margin and controlling time of possession with their offense on the field for 34:39 minutes. But replicating that feat will be difficult now that running back James Connor is out for the season with a knee injury. Arizona has lost eight of their ten games when Connor has been out with an injury. Yeah, I got Tre Benson on my fantasy team too — but he lacks the overall skillset that the veteran Connor provides (like pass blocking on third down). Last week’s result was yet another example of this football team being unable to pull out close games with Kyler Murray under center. Since 2019, when they drafted Murray, they have a 16-26-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession (16-21-1 with Murray healthy and on the field), the fourth-worst in the NFL. While Murray is not directly responsible for five of those losses, the losing record in those situations does correlate with his declining production in pressure situations. Murray ranked 12th in quarterback DVOA last season — but he dropped to 17th when facing pass rush pressure, 19th when playing in the fourth quarter or overtime, and 30th in third-and-long situations. Inconsistency was an issue for Murray before his injury, so this is not a new concern. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing wants the offense to be run-first to help protect Murray — so it will be interesting to see if that preference continues without Connor. The Seahawks are holding their opponents to 3.2 rushing Yards-Per-Carry and 90 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents who are not allowing more than 90 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Since Jonathan Gannon took over as their head coach, the Cardinals have lost 11 of their 15 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 10 of their 13 games against fellow NFC West rivals with Gannon as their head coach. And while those straight-up numbers do not take into account the point spread, Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (101) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (101) and the Arizona Cardinals (102). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 44-13 victory against New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (2-1) had won two games in a row before their 16-15 loss at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks only gained 320 yards in their victory against the Saints — and they scored one of their touchdowns on a 95-yard punt return. Quarterback Sam Darnold only threw 18 passes in the easy victory against a New Orleans team that is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Seattle flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Saints to just 284 yards. They are giving up only 15.7 Points-Per-Game this season, with none of their three opponents scoring more than 17 points against them. The continued excellent play on defense should not be a surprise given the immediate impact Macdonald was able to make for the Seahawks last season. Inheriting a group that was ranked 28th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders, Seattle’s defense rose to 10th in Defensive DVOA last year. They held five of their last eight opponents to 18 points or less. Such dramatic improvements are vulnerable to the plexiglass principle the following season, with the efficiency taking a few steps back — but there are substantive reasons to believe the progress on this side of the ball is sustainable. The Baltimore Ravens experienced a learning curve adjusting to Macdonald’s defensive approach when he was the defensive coordinator. The mixed fronts and pressures from basic presentations that disguise post-snap schematic adjustments are complicated. Player versatility is a must. Furthermore, Macdonald had the courage to accept that some things were not working midseason and made fundamental changes at linebacker. First, the team traded starting middle linebacker Jerome Baker, an offseason free-agent signing, to Miami for Ernest Jones IV on October 24th. The team then released Tyrel Dodson on November 11th. Then, rookie Tyrice Knight was elevated into the starting lineup in Week 10 after their bye week. Jones IV became a tackling machine in Macdonald’s system. Knight was an upgrade. The run defense significantly improved by ranking sixth in DVOA from Week 10 to the end of the season. This improvement allowed the Seahawks' safeties to play back in pass coverage. Macdonald could also deploy more nickel defenses with five defensive backs since cornerback Devon Witherspoon is so effective in the box in run defense. In their last eight games, Seattle ranked fourth in Points-Per-Game Allowed and fifth in Yards-Per-Game Allowed. Macdonald has 13 of the top 14 players in snap count back from that unit. So far this season, they rank fourth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Rush Attempt. They also enjoy a pass rush win rate at a 52% clip. The bigger question is on the other side of the ball after the team traded away Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold as a free agent. Getting younger at quarterback makes sense, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Darnold coming off a career year. Unfortunately, signing Darnold was not a package deal that also included wide receiver Justin Jefferson and their quarterback whisperer, head coach Kevin O’Connell. Much of Darnold’s effectiveness came from Jefferson snapping down deep balls with his wide catch radius that often bailed him out when his throws were not on the money. The Seattle offensive line is likely to be a downgrade as well, given their question marks in the interior. The Vikings’ line averaged 2.5 seconds before pass rush pressure emerged. The Seahawks’ line succumbed to pressure after 2.29 seconds, which ranked sixth-worst in the NFL. Darnold has improved under pressure from his time with the New York Jets — but his numbers still plummeted last year when he was not in a clean pocket. He is not nearly as mobile as Smith. Additionally, he still has issues, as the final two games of the season last year demonstrated. He remains too streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence. But when things go bad as they did in that final regular season game at Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk. He cannot simply flip the switch when facing adversity. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long, which compounds the problem. His decision-making remains a work in progress, and he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. Technically, his lack of a compact delivery results in taking longer if he needs to reset his stance. The hope is that new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can help put him in positions to succeed schematically like O’Connell did last year. I like the hire as I was very concerned that last year’s offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, was not ready to become an NFL coordinator and was better served coaching in college. Kubiak and O’Connell come from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree — and his heavy reliance on pre-snap motion and play-action passes should help create open receivers for Darnold. But that might not be enough to generate the numbers he put up in a Vikings uniform last year. Kubiak used the second-most zone read rushing plays as the offensive coordinator for New Orleans last year — and running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet saw their efficiency decline in that scheme versus gap schemes. And then there is the loss of wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the offseason. Third-year pro Jaxon Smith-Njigba enjoyed a breakout season last year — and the team signed Cooper Kupp in the offseason. But both those players have seen their success lining up in the slot — so how they will function together and whether or not either can continue to thrive as a traditional X or Y receiver is a question, especially since Kubiak used only two wide receiver sets 67% of the time last season. Frankly, Kupp looks washed. His loss of speed means he simply cannot get open. In 2022, he had a positive separation score in 28.4% of his routes run. That dropped to 16.5% in 2023 and then 14.6% in 2024 — but that has plummeted to 13% this season. He is losing the WR2 role to rookie Tory Horton, a fifth-round draft pick from Colorado State who has speed to burn. But on the road, I worry about what this offense will be able to accomplish. Seattle has played 8 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when favored — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 16 games played in prime-time, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Arizona managed only 260 total yards last week in their one-point loss on the road against the 49ers. Quarterback Kyler Murray only passed for 159 yards despite 35 pass attempts. Now a season-ending injury to veteran running back James Connor is not going to help their cause on offense. He accounted for 1508 yards of offense last season. The Cardinals are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with left tackle Paris Johnson, Jr. and left guard Evan Brown questionable for this game. While I have concerns with an offense that has scored more than 20 points just once in their three games, the defense took a big step forward from perhaps the worst unit in the league to the middle of the pack. After ranking second-to-last by surrendering 26.8 Points-Per-Game in 2023-24, Arizona cut -4.5 PPG off that mark last year by holding their opponents to 22.3 PPG, ranking 15th in the league. This defense ranked last in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now FTN) — but they improved to 14th according to those analytics last season. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis did a fantastic job in scheming that group up despite a rash of injuries on that side of the ball. The Cardinals ranked 29th in the NFL with 72.9 adjusted games lost to injury last year. They set an NFL record with 38.8 adjusted games lost to injury on the interior of their defensive line. The coaching philosophy is to rotate defensive linemen — so getting back Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones, who missed 26 combined games, will help. Expectations remain high on former first-round pick Darius Robinson, who missed most of his rookie season due to injuries as well. Ossenfort made a big splash in the offseason by spending $180 million on free agents — and four of those new players are expecting to be new starters in the front seven on defense. Joining the splashy new arrivals of defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Josh Sweat are six rookies, as Ossenfort invested his first five draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. First round draft pick Walter Nolen III will immediately enter the rotation of a suddenly strong defensive line. Arizona has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Seahawks are only giving up 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry on defense — and the Cardinals have played 15 of their last 24 games at home Under the Total against opponents who are not allowing more than 3.5 YPC. But Seattle is only generating 3.3 YPC — and Arizona has played 17 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 3.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against the Cardinals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (101) and the Arizona Cardinals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (485) and the Baltimore Ravens (486). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-1) won their first game of the season in a 52-21 win at home against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (1-1) bounced back from their heartbreaking loss at Buffalo in Week One with a 41-17 victory at Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After struggling with the Green Bay Packers' defense in their opening game, the Lions rebounded by generating 511 yards of offense while scoring 51 points against the Bears. This offense will be just fine under new offensive coordinator John Morton, who replaced Ben Johnson. Detroit should continue to score their share of points tonight. The Lions have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including eight of those 13 games played on the road. They have played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up win against a fellow NFC North rival. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. I worry more about the loss of defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who kept patching the defense together despite being simply ravaged by injuries. The Lions led the NFL with 254 games lost to injury — and the 86.5 adjusted games lost to injury was the sixth most in the league since 2001. Almost all of these losses were on defense. Detroit’s offense enjoyed just the second-fewest adjusted games lost to injury. Where does that leave the 2025-26 season for the Lions? They certainly should be healthier, simply by default. But as the offensive side of the ball mostly stayed clean, it was really in the end just defensive end Aidan Hutchinson who could be labeled a superstar, who they did not have available in their loss to the Commanders. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game, including five of those seven games played at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the first half of the season. The Ravens offense continues to hum in now the third season under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The addition of running back Derrick Henry last year proved inspired since he presented opposing defenses the no-win dilemma of either attempting to stop him or quarterback Lamar Jackson in Run-Pass-Option plays. Henry rushed for 1921 yards on 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and his +562 rushing yards above expected rushing yards led the NFL. Jackson added another 915 rushing yards — and Baltimore led the NFL in both Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and by generating 187.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Jackson continued to improve in the passing game by demonstrating more patience in the pocket and finding wide-open receivers on his second or third look. His 4172 passing yards, along with a 119.6 Passer Rating, were career highs. He threw 41 touchdown passes and tossed just four interceptions. This offense led the league in Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. The Ravens return for their first game at home this season, where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their 21 games played on Monday Night Football in the John Harbaugh era, they have played 13 games Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (485) and the Baltimore Ravens (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (486) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (485). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-1) bounced back from their heartbreaking loss at Buffalo in Week One with a 41-17 victory at Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (1-1) won their first game of the season in a 52-21 win at home against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore returns home to M&T Bank Stadium for the first time this season, where they have won 10 of their last 13 games — and their average winning margin in those victories is by 7.5 points. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up win. And in their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points, they have covered the point spread in 8 of those contests. The Ravens offense continued to hum in the second season under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The addition of running back Derrick Henry proved inspired since he presented opposing defenses the no-win dilemma of either attempting to stop him or quarterback Lamar Jackson in Run-Pass-Option plays. Henry rushed for 1921 yards on 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and his +562 rushing yards above expected rushing yards led the NFL. Jackson added another 915 rushing yards — and Baltimore led the NFL in both Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and by generating 187.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Jackson continued to improve in the passing game by demonstrating more patience in the pocket and finding wide-open receivers on his second or third look. His 4172 passing yards, along with a 119.6 Passer Rating, were career highs. He threw 41 touchdown passes and tossed just four interceptions. This offense led the league in Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. On the other side of the ball, there were some early stumbles for first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr, which I expected given the brain drain from the coaching staff in the offseason. After surrendering 359 passing yards to Joe Burrow in Week 10 (with Ja’Marr Chase on the receiving end of 264 of those yards), changes were made. Head coach John Harbaugh brought back Dean Pees out of retirement (again) to serve as a special consultant. Safety Kyle Hamilton moved from playing close to the line of scrimmage to taking on a traditional free safety role pre-snap before the defense would make their now typical post-snap schematic realignments as they have been doing the last three years with Matt Macdonald and Jesse Minter as their defensive coordinators. Free safety Marcus Williams got replaced by strong safety Ar’Darius Williams in the secondary. The results were dramatically better. Ignore that Baltimore ranked second-to-last in the NFL by giving up 244.1 passing YPG. After that game against Cincinnati, the Ravens ranked second in the league in Defensive DVOA using the Football Outsiders’ metrics. They also led the league with the fewest PPG allowed and fewest Yards-Per-Play allowed in those final eight weeks of the regular season. Taking away the deep-threat forced opposing offenses to settle for shorter passes — they allowed the linebackers to play more of a role in shutting down the passing game. More importantly, the better pass coverage helps a pass rush that ended the regular season with the second-most sacks in the league. With a year under his belt, Orr should be more comfortable calling the defense -- and Pees remains involved to offer his wisdom. Williams suffered a torn ACL in May minicamp, but the team probably got a steal in the first round of the draft with Georgia safety Malaki Starks, who shares similar positional flexibility as Hamilton. But for a team that won the overall DVOA regular season championship for the third time since 2019, the biggest question remains whether or not they can get over the hump in their journey through the suffering of learning how to win in the postseason. The Ravens are certainly not the first professional franchise to be put through the emotional ringer of suffering heartbreak after heartbreak before finally breaking through. They are going to have to start making their own luck. They did not force a turnover in either playoff game last season (and after forcing 31 takeaways in 2023-24, that only generated 17 turnovers last year). They need to avoid another 0-2 start in a mission to claim home-field advantage — and while that task has been accomplished, dropping this game on Monday Night Football puts them at 1-2. With Jackson under center, Baltimore has won seven of their nine appearances on Monday Night Football — and Jackson has thrown 22 touchdown passes without an interception in those games. Jackson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in seven straight appearances in prime-time. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on Monday Night Football. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight up win against a fellow NFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight up win at home against a divisional opponent. The Lions won the Regular Season World Championship last year by posting a 15-2 record while conducting a successful Revenge Tour which included a 47-9 victory at Dallas and a 40-34 win at San Francisco where head coach Dan Campbell gambled risking even more injuries was worth the price of sending a message to a 49ers team destined to finish 6-11 after dropping seven of their last eight games. And the trick plays were droppin’ in those games in proverbial and literal spikes of the football along the way. Wunderkind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson even got to put a cherry on top of his audition tape for the Chicago Bears with his flashy “look at me!” fake fumble and stumble gimmick in Soldier Field late in the season in a 44-17 victory. With little left to prove but to seize their inevitable Vince Lombardi trophy, Detroit then got upset on their home field in the first round of the playoffs by Washington and their rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels by a 45-31 score. I think the offense will be fine despite the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — and the 52 points they scored last week demonstrated that. But I worry more about the loss of defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who kept patching the defense together despite being simply ravaged by injuries. The Lions led the NFL with 254 games lost to injury — and the 86.5 adjusted games lost to injury was the sixth most in the league since 2001. Almost all of these losses were on defense. Detroit’s offense enjoyed just the second-fewest adjusted games lost to injury. Where does that leave the 2025-26 season for the Lions? They certainly should be healthier, simply by default. But as the offensive side of the ball mostly stayed clean, it was really in the end just defensive end Aidan Hutchinson who could be labeled a superstar, who they did not have available in their loss to the Commanders. Certainly, attrition takes its toll — and it is why I keep complaining about general manager Brad Holmes for trading up in the draft. As I wrote in my deep dive on this team last year: “Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback.” Well, guess what?” Holmes did it again in last April’s draft by throwing in two third-round picks in the 2026 draft to get Jacksonville to swap third-round picks so he could snatch wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa from Arkansas. Holmes traded up to draft an injured Williams in the middle of the first round, too. If the injuries hit this team this season and their depth is once again challenged, remember these moments. Getting Hutchinson back will certainly help the defense. But both Glenn and Johnson took some assistant coaches with them — so the brain drain concern is legitimate (even after my reservations about Johnson). The Lions were a team that posted a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They also ranked eighth in the league with a +9 net turnover margin — so it is not hard to see where the variance would be that would impact their win/loss bottom line. All this brings me to the topic of the offensive line, which has been the foundation of everything they accomplished on offense in the Johnson-coordinating era. Losing right guard Kevin Zeitler to free agency after one year with the team was manageable — but the surprise retirement of perennial All-Pro center Frank Ragnow could be devastating. The 29-year-old was probably still the best center in the league. Detroit still is in great shape on the edges as Penei Sewell is the best right tackle in the world, and left tackle Taylor Decker continues to play at a high level, albeit not as an All-Pro, but he comes into this game not at 100% due to a shoulder injury. Left guard Graham Glasgow likely takes over at center — although the journeyman was considered the weak link of the group last year. Second-year pro Christian Mahogany probably becomes the starting left guard after getting two starts at the end of the season and holding down the fort — but how much of that sixth-round pick’s success was a product of playing next to Ragnow? There will be a competition to replace Zeitler at right guard with rookie Tate Rutledge out of Georgia, probably on the inside track after getting drafted in the second round. The middle of this front could be a problem — and, by the way, the book on Goff going back to his Super Bowl appearances against New England is to pressure him right up the gut. Green Bay exposed the interior of the offensive line in their opening game. With 10 starters back on both sides of the ball, it is easy to assume that the Lions will be in the mix to win the NFC once again. But it is not difficult to see how the wheels could fall off that wagon. As the San Francisco 49ers can attest, even franchises with a long history of success are not invulnerable. Finally, for this game, we need to consider that Goff is playing outdoors. In his 62 games played inside, Goff has a 102.1 Quarterback Rating, a 68.7% completion percentage, and 39 interceptions — but in his 74 games played outdoors in his career, his Quarterback Rating drops to 91.3 with a 63.5% completion percentage and 56 interceptions. When the Lions played in Baltimore on October 22nd in 2023, they lost by a 38-6 score as a 3-point underdog. Goff completed only 62.3% of his passes in that game with no touchdown passes and one interception.

FINAL TAKE: Jackson has a well-earned reputation for tearing up NFC opponents who are just not as familiar with how to defend his unique skillset. Detroit does not have a player who can replicate his mobility in preparing for this contest. The Ravens have won 24 of their 26 games against the NFC with Jackson under center — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in non-conference play. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (486) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (485). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (477) minus the points versus the New York Giants (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 20-17 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (0-2) has lost their first two games of the year after their 40-37 loss at Dallas as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City has been burdened with a difficult opening schedule of two playoff teams, the Los Angeles Chargers and the reigning Super Bowl champion  Eagles, last week. They should begin to right their ship tonight. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 14 of their 23 games under head coach Andy Reid after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after playing their previous game at home. I backed the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February — so I sure got that one wrong. They entered that game with a 12-0 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. There was a lot of griping about how lucky they had been during the year. And while they definitely got some good breaks along the way, they also play smarter than most teams — and that helps them take calculated risks at the right time, avoid mistakes, and execute the little things that pull out close games. With a brain trust of Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and then future Hall of Famers, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, leading the offense, banking on them to figure out ways to win games is going to be a very profitable endeavor. Certainly, getting good breaks plays a role, yet I am very interested in the deeper analytics in football and basketball, delving into the topic that winning close games is, in fact, often a skill. If you think Mahomes' four fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives were just a product of luck, then tell it to Tom Brady. Or Michael Jordan. With the books setting the line as the Chiefs a six-point favorite, it sure looks suspicious that they are inviting bets on the home dog, who presumably rest assured that they will win this game but within one scoring possession. That all said, Kansas City was certainly exposed by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The problems at tackle on the offensive line were evident all season — for several years, in fact, since not re-signing left tackle Orlando Brown — yet the Chiefs kept on winning two Super Bowls in a row and then 17 of their first 19 games last year. Not only did the Eagles' rotation of pass rushers make Mahomes look silly, but the Philly offense carved up the interior of the Kansas City defensive line. Reid and general manager Brett Veach attacked the offensive line problem in the offseason. They signed left tackle Jaylon Moore from San Francisco, who has spent the past few seasons serving as the understudy to future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. He has not been a full-time starter in the league, but he brings promise after being responsible for only five sacks in 446 dropbacks. Veach then drafted Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons at the end of the first round. If not for a season-ending knee injury in October, he might have been one of the first ten players selected in the draft. Veach also added defensive tackle Jerry Tillery from Minnesota and then drafted defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott from Tennessee in the second round — but their reputations are more positive regarding their interior pass rush skills rather than stopping the run, so that is an area that will need to be monitored. So far, so good. They are only giving up 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry and 106.0 Rushing Yards-Per-Game after limiting the Eagles to 122 rushing yards on just 3.6 YPC. Mahomes’ wide receiver room remains less than full strength, given the injury to Xavier Worthy and the suspension of Rashee Rice — but Hollywood Brown is healthy and giving this unit a boost with his deep threat. The naysayers should remember that the worst finishes that Mahomes has experienced in his seven seasons as a starting quarterback are two overtime losses in the AFC championship game. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the first month of the season. The original sin of the Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen head coach and general manager pairing was to overestimate how close their team was to being a legitimate Super Bowl contender after they upset the Minnesota Vikings on the road in the first round of the playoffs in January of 2023. It was a fateful moment for both teams. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. The Vikings' management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than signing him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal and acquired several veterans to plug some holes. But the problems were much more systemic — and the Jones extension was so regretful that they traded him to Minnesota midseason last year just to get him out of the building. Since that playoff appearance, the Giants have gone 9-25 straight-up — and they are on a 12-30-1 run since their unexpected 7-2 start in Daboll’s first season as the head coach. Despite all that, owner John Mara elected to retain Daboll and Schoen for one more year to see if they can turn things around. It is not difficult to conclude that Mara is yet another victim of the sunk-cost fallacy. Granted, previous general manager Dave Gettleman made the Daniel Jones pick — but Daboll and Schoen were also practitioners of the fallacy of sunk costs by doubling down on a situation that they had already invested significant resources in. The short-term answer at quarterback this year was to sign Russell Wilson. Perhaps the Giants’ brain trust saw something different in his one season with the Steelers that the folks in Pittsburgh did not see, despite having him in the building every day? I came to the conclusion that Wilson is a phony after a long dissection of his divorce with Seattle a few years ago. I won’t rehash the reasons (or do a victory dance). When conducting this deep dive, I came across a picture of Wilson sitting in the front row of a New York Knicks game next to his celebrity wife, Chris Rock, and the actor Matthew Modine. Wilson was wearing a baseball cap that read “Real.” Like the frat boys on spring break wearing the Big Johnson shirts, Wilson broadcasting just how Uber Real he is has strong "my t-shirt is raising many questions answered by my t-shirt" vibes. When Mike Tomlin prefers Aaron Rodgers to Wilson as his quarterback moving forward, that speaks loudly. Complicating matters even more, Schoen drafted Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart in the first round. When Wilson continues to pad his stats at the expense of the offense — the thing that drove Sean Payton so nuts that he decided to just eat the $85 million salary cap hit — Daboll and Schoen are going to face a dilemma: try to save their jobs by sticking with Wilson (or turn to Jameis Winston, author of THREE three-interception games last year) or turn to the future by putting Dart under center. On the other hand, maybe a late-season dart throw on Dart will be just enough for Mara to sink even more costs on this current regime. I think Dart is their starting quarterback by Halloween. I’m aware that Wilson completed 30 of 41 passes for 450 yards last week. He had his moon ball working — but I blame the bad Cowboys defense without pass rushed Micah Parsons for those numbers more than I credit Wilson. Last year’s record was marred by a brutal 1-8 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and now it is 1-9 after the three-point loss to Dallas. The Giants had an 8-4-1 record in one-possession games in Daboll’s first season. Maybe the Regression Gods were just teasing? They have since gone 5-13 in games decided by eight points or less. A lot of gamblers have gone broke waiting for their “luck” to turn. In Daboll’s case, perhaps this slide is less about bad breaks and more about bad game management, as he screams at his players to let everyone know who is supposedly not to blame. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored by up to seven points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (477) minus the points versus the New York Giants (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (477) and the New York Giants (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 20-17 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (0-2) has lost their first two games of the year after their 40-37 loss at Dallas as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the Eagles to just 216 yards of offense despite their defense being on the field for 32:34 minutes of that game. But they only managed 294 yards of offense themselves in the 3-point loss. It was the 12th straight game in the regular season when Kansas City did not score more than 30 points. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The offensive line remains a work in progress. Right tackle Jawan Taylor continues to underperform, and first-year starting left tackle Josh Simmons has played like a rookie. The loss of All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who signed a big contract with Chicago, has not helped matters. My deep dive on this team in the offseason remained optimistic that finally getting Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Rashee Rice would open up the passing game for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. But after that trio did not play even one snap together last season, it is more of exactly the same predicament this year. Rice is serving his suspension — and Worthy remains out with a shoulder injury he suffered early in Week One against the Chargers. The defense remains outstanding — they are only giving up 305.0 total Yards-Per-Game so far this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points since Brian Daboll became their head coach. And while they generated 8.2 Yards-Per-Play against that Cowboys defense learning to live life without pass rusher Micah Parsons, they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. After playing their first two games on the road, the Giants return home to MetLife Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total after playing their previous two games on the road. I think the New York defense is better than what they have shown in their first two games. After ranking tied for eighth in sacks and third in sack percentage with a unit that featured defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II and linebackers Brian Burns, Bobby Okereke, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, they drafted pass rush extraordinaire Abdul Carter from Penn State in the first round of the NFL draft. This pass rush should make life for Mahomes very difficult, given the state of their offensive line. The Giants have played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. New York has played 26 of their last 30 games at home Under the Total in September and October since 2017 — and they have played 21 of those 23 games Under the Total since 2019 and 15 of those 16 games Under the Total since 2021. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (477) and the New York Giants (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (475) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (476). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 27-22 victory at home against Carolina as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) has also won their first two games of the season after their 26-21 victory at New Orleans as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game by six points or less. I’m not surprised by the good start for this team (albeit against weak opposition). There are reasons for optimism for the Cardinals in the third season under head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort. After only winning four games in each of the last two seasons, they doubled that win total last year with an 8-9 mark. The defense took a big step forward from perhaps the worst unit in the league to the middle of the pack. After ranking second-to-last by surrendering 26.8 Points-Per-Game in 2023-24, Arizona cut -4.5 PPG off that mark last year by holding their opponents to 22.3 PPG, ranking 15th in the league. This defense ranked last in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now FTN) — but they improved to 14th according to those analytics last season. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis did a fantastic job in scheming that group up despite a rash of injuries on that side of the ball. The Cardinals ranked 29th in the NFL with 72.9 adjusted games lost to injury last year. They set an NFL record with 38.8 adjusted games lost to injury on the interior of their defensive line. The coaching philosophy is to rotate defensive linemen — so getting back Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones, who missed 26 combined games, will help. Expectations remain high on former first-round pick Darius Robinson, who missed most of his rookie season due to injuries as well. Ossenfort made a big splash in the offseason by spending $180 million on free agents — and four of those new players are expected to be new starters in the front seven on defense. Joining the splashy new arrivals of defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Josh Sweat are six rookies, as Ossenfort invested his first five draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. First round draft pick Walter Nolen III will immediately enter the rotation of a suddenly strong defensive line — and they may have gotten a steal in the second round with cornerback Will Johnson, who was a consensus first round talent out of Michigan before injuries last year dropped his value. So far, Johnson has exceeded even the expectations of a first-round pick. On offense, Kyler Murray enjoyed his best season since 2021 as he continues to regain his form after recovering from the torn ACL that derailed his 2022 campaign. Arizona outscored their opponents by +1.2 net PPG and outgained them by +15.7 net Yards-Per-Game. But after a 6-4 start to the year, they faded down the stretch with five losses in their final seven games, in what has become a consistent trend for this franchise. Since 2021, the Cardinals have a 23-22 record through the first nine weeks of the season but just a 12-27 mark the rest of the way — and that -.203 drop in winning percentage in the second half of the season is the worst decline in the league during that stretch. Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played in September — so now is the time to invest in this team. Quarterback Kyler Murray vowed to get more involved in the rushing attack after his 4.6 rush attempts per game last year were a career-low and perhaps an indication that he is less likely to offer a dual threat with his legs after that torn ACL. In his first two games, he has run the ball seven times in both contests for 70 yards. That subtle difference is enough to keep defenses honest and open up the passing game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. With Murray under center, Arizona is 32-17-2 ATS in their 51 games as an underdog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. With a salary cap crunch looming next season, along with the deadline to make a decision on re-signing quarterback Brock Purdy, the 2024-25 campaign was destined to be the Last Chance Saloon for this franchise to win their first Super Bowl championship under head coach Kyle Shanahan after the team lost in overtime against Kansas City the previous February. But the 49ers led the NFL with 141.2 adjusted games lost to injury — ranking second in the most starts lost on offense and third for the most starts lost on defense — in a lost 6-11 season. Optimists can point to lots of evidence that San Francisco deserved better, even with all the injuries. They have a 2-5 record in games decided by one-scoring possessions. They outgained their opponents by +59.9 net Yards-Per-Game but got held back by a -10 net turnover margin. They ranked 14th in the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. But before one comes to the conclusion that last year was just a blip and the Regression Gods will get this team back onto the short list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders, those encouraging deeper metrics were derived from a roster that no longer exists. Gone are 20 players from last year’s team, including eight starters and four past Pro Bowlers. Including special teams, general manager John Lynch had to replace players who accounted for nearly 10,000 snaps last year. The defense lost almost 40% of their snaps from last season, including All-Pro cornerback Charvarious Ward and star safety Talanoa Hufunga in the secondary, linebacker Dre Greenlaw (who Lynch really wanted back), and three starters on the defensive line. Lynch’s rebuild/reload focused on the draft, where he added 11 rookies, including eight in the first five rounds — and his first five picks were on defense with a group of players who will be expected to be on the field immediately. Robert Saleh is back as their defensive coordinator with much more talent than he inherited in his previous run as the team’s DC in 2017. Seven past All-Pros remain — but a lot is being asked of 37-year-old left tackle Trent Williams to stay healthy, running back Christian McCaffrey to return to 100% after tearing his PCL and only playing four games, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to recover from his ACL/MCL surgery in November (and he is still out), and tight end George Kittle to remain elite at 32-years old. After signing a $265 million extension, more will be asked and needed from Purdy. My bit on Purdy’s best comp being to Ringo Starr is not relevant for this afternoon’s game since he remains out with a turf toe injury. Needless to say, backup quarterback Mac Jones does not compare as well to the Beatles’ drummer, who did not receive the same reverence as the others in the Fab Four but executed his role perfectly and now receives accolades from all of the hotshot drummers with bigger reputations in the music industry. Jones played great against the Saints last week — but the assignment is much tougher against this underrated Cardinals defense led by a defensive head coach who schemes against Shanahan two times a year. For 22 straight seasons, San Francisco has either reached the NFC Championship Game or missed the playoffs. I was surprised to realize that despite two Super Bowl appearances in the last six seasons, the 49ers are only 70-62 in Shanahan and Lynch’s eight seasons as the football brain trust of this franchise. Positive regression is far from a guarantee for this team — and the injury bug is already nailing this team. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers are 9-14-1 ATS in their 24 games at home against fellow NFC West rivals under Shanahan — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division opponents. They are also 2-5-1 ATS at home in their 8 games at home against the Cardinals under Shanahan. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (475) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (378) minus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (377). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (3-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-3 victory against Portland State as a 38-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 56-7 victory against Southern as a 37.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i did not have redshirt freshman Micah Alejado under center last week due to a right foot injury — but they still dominated in that game by only surrendering 230 yards in that contest. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 9 straight home games after playing their last game Under the Total. They did not commit a turnover last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home after not committing a turnover in their last contest. Alejado is expected to play tonight and is listed as probable. Fourth-year head coach Timmy Chang returns 15 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. There is optimism within the program with the offense being handed over to Alejado, who threw 125 touchdown passes to just four interceptions in his high school career at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. He has a quick release and is very accurate, so he seems to be a great fit for the Rainbow Warriors’ run-and-shoot offense that is aging more Air Raid and RPOs concepts. Chang also brought in Alejado’s quarterbacks coach at Bishop Gorman to serve the same role at Hawai’i as a former player in the program. In his first career start in the last game of the season last year, Alejado threw for 469 yards with five touchdown passes and another 54 rushing yards in a 38-30 victory against a New Mexico team with a questionable defense. The defense returns nine starters and 11 of the 20 players who logged at least 200 snaps for second-year defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. Hawai’i gave up 26.0 Points-Per-Game last year, which was -6.2 fewer PPG than the prior year under the nine-year NFL veteran who served as Rex Ryan’s defensive coordinator for four seasons with the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. If the defense can continue to improve with a handful of transfers entering the program — and Alejandro can meet his high expectations as a Hawai’i native — this team can go places. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. Fresno State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double-overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. They played that game without 15 of their regulars, including quarterback Mikey Keene. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turnaround the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. He completed 20 of 24 passes for 240 yards with four touchdown passes against their FCS rival last week. But Warner can be loose with the football. After throwing 37 interceptions in his first three seasons, he already has thrown five picks this year. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents — and the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against conference rivals. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (378) minus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (354) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (353). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after a 42-3 victory at Temple as a 24-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn (3-0) has won their first three games of the year after their 31-15 victory at home against South Alabama as a 25.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. This appears to be a different Oklahoma team with former Washington State quarterback John Mateer under center. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 282 yards in the win against the Owls — and the dual-threat added 63 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He oversees a dynamic passing game that features four legitimate targets: Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis, Isaiah Sateen, and Jaren Kanak, who have combined for 59 receptions on over 12.0 Yards Per Reception. Those four receivers have forced 14 missed tackles between them. Overall, the Oklahoma offense is scoring a remarkable 5.4 points per trip inside their opponent’s 40-yard line. The Sooners rank 11th in the nation in Success Rate on passing downs — and they rank 22nd in Explosiveness on offense. The Sooners' defense has also been improved since head coach Brent Venables took over, calling the plays again. Oklahoma ranks in the top ten in the nation in Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed. They rank second in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they have stopped their opponents in 34 of their 41 3rd Down opportunities. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played in September. Auburn beat the Jaguars last week — but they only outgained that Sun Belt opponent by +27 net yards after benefiting from a +2 net turnover margin. For the second-straight season, head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. The question for this team is at quarterback. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama last season. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500. He only completed 13 of 24 passes for 142 yards in what should have been a layup last week against South Alabama. The Tigers' defense has many red flags. They rank outside the top-100 in rush defense and Expected Points Allowed per drop back in the passing game. Their defense ranks 105th in Pro Football Focus’ tackling grade — and they rank 122nd in PFF’s pass coverage grading scale. Furthermore, they rank outside the top 100 in explosive plays allowed on later downs. In their win against Baylor, they allowed 13 passing plays of 12 or more yards. They rank 122nd in their coverage grade in the passing game by PFF — and they rank outside the top 100 in Explosive Plays Allowed in later downs. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in September. 

FINAL TAKE: The Sooners have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Oklahoma Sooners (354) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (353). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (302) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (301). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (2-0) won their second game in a row to start the season, after their 30-10 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 33-27 upset loss at home against New England as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo dismantled the Jets last week by outgaining them by 249 net yards. The Bills rushed for 224 yards from 43 carries — and they have covered all 5 of their games at home after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game since Sean McDermott became their head coach. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after beating a fellow AFC East rival on the road in their last game. Many observers thought the Bills were destined to take a step back last season after saying goodbye to wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I disagreed because I like the increased reliance on the run game once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for Ken Dorsey late last season. In my deep dive last year, I wrote: “Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons.” Sure enough, Allen only threw six interceptions all season — and his eight turnovers (accounting for two lost fumbles) were the only giveaways the offense experienced all season. That is spectacular. It is also unsustainable. Not making those mistakes — and Allen taking only 14 sacks all season — helped the offense rank second in the NFL by scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game. They reached the 30-point plateau 13 times while scoring at least 27 points 15 times and getting to 40 or more points three times. Even with some regression in the turnover department,  the offense should remain explosive. The outstanding offensive line remains intact. A common criticism is that Buffalo lacks the prototype WR1 target, but the balance (and lack of drama) from the array of targets may be just what Allen needs to thrive. And there are reasons for optimism. Both Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kinked played through injury. Second-year wideout Keon Coleman should continue to grow. Miami is an absolute mess with head coach Mike McDaniel the leading candidate to become the first coach fired this season — and, frankly, it might happen after this game. I have seen this moment coming. After making the playoffs in the first two seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins fell to 8-9 last year — and the vibes were bad. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey was granted his trade request at the end of June when he was dealt to Pittsburgh. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a drama queen and is coming off a year where did not reach 1000 receiving yards. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed another six games because of injuries. McDaniel admitted to a problem of player tardiness to team meetings. The inmates appear to be running the asylum. McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier on are on the hot seat — but it is going to be difficult to put the genie back in the proverbial bottle, even with a relatively light schedule. McDaniel is talking about being more of a disciplinarian — but it is very tough for the “cool teacher” who lets the students get away with whatever they want to suddenly command the respect to not talk back in class. It has been speculated that one of the reasons Ramsey wanted out of the building was his lack of respect for McDaniel. The bigger problem is that his offense was not nearly as explosive last year. After leading the NFL by generating 401.3 total Yards-Per-Game in 2023-24, Miami dropped to 18th in the league by averaging 325.4 total YPG last year. There are several factors involved. The offensive line fell from fourth in Adjusted Line Yards to last in that metric a year ago. At 31 years old, Hill may have lost a step. But the league may be figuring out McDaniel’s schemes. While pre-snap motion was a relatively new phenomenon a few years ago, now it is commonplace. Furthermore, there are simply limitations in what the offense can accomplish when such a priority is placed on keeping Tagovailoa upright and not risking another concussion. His 2.42 seconds per throw average last year was the fastest in the NFL. But the zeal to get the ball out quickly removes the deep ball threat. The Dolphins struggled to threaten two-high safety looks that can suffocate their speedy playmakers. Tagovailoa’s average depth of target went from 7.6 yards per attempt two years ago (21st of qualifying QBs) to 5.7 yards per attempt, which was last for the 40 qualifying quarterbacks. His check-down rate on 16.6% of his throws was the fourth highest in the NFL. He only threw into tight windows in 20.1% of his throws, ranking in the lower end. Tagovailoa rarely uses his legs to garner first downs as well, given the inherent injury risk of being a ball carrier. The run game was not effective either — after ranking sixth in the NFL two years ago by generating 135.8 rushing YPG, they fell to 21st last year by only averaging 105.6 rushing YPG. The decreased threat of the rushing attack diminished the potency of McDaniel dialing up play-action passes. All the window dressing of pre-snap motion and play-action passing fails to unlock the speed of the play-makers on the offense if defenses are comfortable in simply stopping what Tagovailoa does with the football in under three seconds. Grier’s hope is that he made the team tougher in the offseason through the draft and in free agency — although seeing long-time left tackle Terron Armstead retire in the offseason does not help. It is hard to change the identity of a football team from finesse to physical in one offseason without also changing the coaching staff. Three new starters will be on the offensive line. The defense will miss the defensive end Calais Campbell, who signed with Arizona in the offseason — even at 38 years old, he remains effective in the pass rush (ask the Cardinals after their first two games with him). The roster is bereft of talent at cornerback after the trade of Ramsey. In my deep dive on this team last year, I observed that much of the gaudy stats for this team came against sub-.500 teams. The Dolphins have been flat-track bullies under McDaniel, who tend to melt against tougher competition. They have lost six of their seven games against Buffalo in his tenure. Now, the inner turmoil is growing, and the rest of the league is catching up. It is telling that the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 11 games against teams with a winning record with Tagovailoa healthy and under center. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC opponents. And is often the case with teams reeling in the wrong directions, the injuries are mounting up. Starting right tackle Austin Jackson starting linebacker Chop Robinson are on the injured list. Cornerbacks Cam Smith and Storm Duck are out, making the Ramsey trade even more perilous. Starting safety Ifeatu Melifonwu is out with a calf. Defensive tackle Benito Jones is out with an oblique. Even at close to 100%, this was going to be tough for the Dolphins. 

FINAL TAKE: I am not going to be surprised if this is the game when the Dolphins players officially quit on McDaniel. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in the first month of the season with him as their head coach. The Bills have covered the point spread in 22 of their 32 games in the first month of the season under McDermott — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games played on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (302) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (301) and the Buffalo Bills (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 33-27 upset loss at home against New England as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (2-0) won their second game in a row to start the season, after their 30-10 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite the final score, the Dolphins’ defense played better last week. They held the Patriots to just 333 total yards (and outgained them by +25 net yards) — but allowing a 90-yard kickoff return for a touchdown did not help their cause. But the Miami offense is averaging only 284.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 17.5 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to a fellow AFC East rival — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after losing their last game. Furthermore, they have played 5 straight games on the Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. This offense was not nearly as explosive last year, as it had been in the past under McDaniel. After leading the NFL by generating 401.3 total Yards-Per-Game in 2023-24, Miami dropped to 18th in the league by averaging 325.4 total YPG last year. There are several factors involved. The offensive line fell from fourth in Adjusted Line Yards to last in that metric a year ago. At 31 years old, wide receiver Tyreek Hill may have lost a step. The league may be figuring out McDaniel’s schemes. While pre-snap motion was a relatively new phenomenon a few years ago, now it is commonplace. Furthermore, there are simply limitations in what the offense can accomplish when such a priority is placed on keeping Tagovailoa upright and not risking another concussion. His 2.42 seconds per throw average last year was the fastest in the NFL. But the zeal to get the ball out quickly removes the deep ball threat. The Dolphins struggled to threaten two-high safety looks that can suffocate their speedy playmakers. Tagovailoa’s average depth of target went from 7.6 yards per attempt two years ago (21st of qualifying QBs) to 5.7 yards per attempt, which was last for the 40 qualifying quarterbacks. His check-down rate on 16.6% of his throws was the fourth highest in the NFL. He only threw into tight windows in 20.1% of his throws, ranking in the lower end. Tagovailoa rarely uses his legs to garner first downs as well, given the inherent injury risk of being a ball carrier. The run game was not effective either — after ranking sixth in the NFL two years ago by generating 135.8 rushing YPG, they fell to 21st last year by only averaging 105.6 rushing YPG. The decreased threat of the rushing attack diminished the potency of McDaniel dialing up play-action passes. All the window dressing of pre-snap motion and play-action passing fails to unlock the speed of the play-makers on the offense if defenses are comfortable in simply stopping what Tagovailoa does with the football in under three seconds. General manager Chris Grier’s hope is that he made the team tougher in the offseason through the draft and in free agency — although seeing long-time left tackle Terron Armstead retire in the offseason does not help. Three new starters will be on the offensive line. Miami has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.  Buffalo dismantled the Jets last week by outgaining them by 249 net yards. The Bills rushed for 224 yards from 43 carries, which helped them control the time of possession by being on offense for 38:21 minutes — and they held the Jets to just 154 total yards. Head coach Sean McDermott has learned not to ask too much of quarterback Josh Allen in games like this — running back James Cook ran the ball 21 times for 132 yards last week, and I expect a similar game plan tonight. Allen only attempted 25 passes and ran the ball just six times. Running the ball will protect their defense, which is what has been holding them back from reaching the Super Bowl. General manager Brandon Beane knows the problem and targeted the defense with his first five draft picks and six of his top seven selections in the NFL draft last April, focusing on cornerbacks, defensive tackles, and edge rushers. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (301) and the Buffalo Bills (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (279) and the Las Vegas Raiders (280). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) kicked off their season with a 27-21 upset win against Kansas City as a 3-point underdog on a neutral field in Brazil on September 5th. Las Vegas (1-0) pulled off a 20-13 upset win at New England as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers did a good job of holding the defending AFC champions to just 347 yards of offense. It will probably be too much to ask for them to once again lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to 17.7 PPG. The plexiglass principle is sound in that dramatic improvements in one area tend to regress a bit the following season. However, the significant improvement from the 2023-24 season under previous head coach Brandon Staley should be mostly sustainable. There was a qualitative difference with the defense last year, with the defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying the Michigan/Baltimore Ravens’ innovative scheme that emphasizes deceptive post-snap adjustments and positional flexibility. Strong safety Derwin James Jr. thrived with this opportunity to demonstrate his flexibility. Harbaugh’s run-first philosophy that emphasized protecting the football certainly helped as well. The unit is now replacing defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox, linebacker Joey Bosa, and cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. But it’s not too difficult to put a positive spin on those changes. Bosa is getting old and struggles to stay on the field. Samuel remained unsigned heading into the fall training camps. The players may not have been the best fits for Minter’s scheme, which requires players to have multiple skill sets. There appear to be rising stars at defensive end with third-year pro Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley complementing proven veterans Khalil Mack and James. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the season-ending injury to left tackle Rashawn Slater really hurts. While second-year tackle Joe Alt is comfortable at left tackle after playing that position at Notre Dame, the potential of having two elite bookend tackles had to be enticing to head coach Jim Harbaugh. The interior of the line remains a question. Los Angeles failed to score more than 17 points on seven occasions. The 110.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game were the lowest total for a Harbaugh-coached team at the collegiate or NFL level. The Chargers have played 11 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals. And in their last 14 games played in the first half of the season, the Chargers have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Las Vegas held the Patriots to just 336 yards of offense last week. Tight end Brock Bowers is expected to play after getting knocked out of that game. But starting center Jackson Powers-Johnson is out for this game due to a concussion. If there is a Tom Brady Effect to his becoming a minority owner of this franchise, it is that it has triggered a professionalization of the brain trust. Pete Carroll comes in after his year's sabbatical as a young 73-year-old, having done this before by overseeing the rebuilding of the Seattle Seahawks into a Super Bowl winner and perennial powerhouse in the NFC. The defense can be much better with defensive end Maxx Crosby not playing injured, as he did since Week Two last year, which caused him to miss five games. Defensive end Malcolm Koonce missed the entire season due to injury. Get those two back healthy for a full season, and the Raiders could make things interesting. Despite going 4-13 last year, they got outgained by only -29.9 net Yards-Per-Game due to a defense that ranked 15th by giving up only 333.1 total YPG. Ranking second-to-last in opponent starting field position put the defense behind the eight-ball too often. Carroll should get that cleaned up — and last week was a great start. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Furthermore, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range, including eight of those 11 games played at home.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Chargers have played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (279) and the Las Vegas Raiders (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (278). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (1-0) began their season with a 23-20 victory at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 14-9 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should build off their momentum from earning a win against a fellow NFC South rival. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less. This team is a bit underrated despite having made the playoffs in five straight seasons — including winning the Super Bowl in 2021 — and they have won the NFC South title for four straight seasons. While it may look like they get stuck in neutral once they are in the playoffs, remember that this team beat Philadelphia, Detroit, and Washington in the regular season last year — and they only lost to the Commanders by a field goal in a game they kind of gave away late. Probably no NFL team has more continuity from last season, either. Tampa Bay has all 11 starters back on offense and nine starters back on defense. The only coaching change was the elevation of pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator after Liam Coen took the head coaching job for Jacksonville. New offensive coordinators have become the norm for Baker Mayfield, who has had a new offensive coordinator in eight straight seasons. Mayfield needs to cut down on his 16 interceptions last year (none last week) — but, otherwise, he comes off an outstanding season where he threw for 4500 yards while completing 71.4% of his passes and tossing 41 touchdown passes. After his three-touchdown performance against the Falcons, he has 19 touchdown passes in his last six games. The offensive unit is loaded with playmakers at running back and wide receiver. Bucky Irving enjoyed a breakout rookie season in the backfield and eventually seized playing time away from Rachaad White, who remains a solid option. Veteran wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missed time last year but re-signed with the team to join intriguing young wideouts Jalen McMillan and rookie Emeka Egbuka. The Bucs generated 399.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 29.5 Points-Per-Game, ranking third and fourth in the NFL. The defense needs to generate more pressure from the edges — and that is why general manager Jason Licht signed linebacker Hassan Reddick in the hope that he will rediscover his passion for football after a lost season with the New York Jets last year. Reddick registered his first sack for his new team last week. Former All-Pro Antoine Winfield endured an injury-riddled season — but if he can regain his 2023 form, this unit should be improved. It is telling that a vast majority of the veterans opted to re-sign with this squad in the offseason. While some key members remain from the 2021 Super Bowl team, they had the fourth-youngest roster in the league last year, as Licht has been rebuilding this team on the fly. With plenty of playoff experience, Tampa Bay may be under the radar in many circles — but not in their minds. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC, including four of those five games played on the road. Houston only managed 265 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Rams. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up loss on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing a team from the NFC in their last game. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in September. I have two concerns about the Texans: their offensive line and their drafting philosophy. Both of these critiques have a common denominator in general manager Nick Caserio, whom I have always been neutral on before my discoveries in my deep dive on a quiet (but hot) summer night in Las Vegas at the end of July. The first red flag for the Texans is the offensive line, the unit where Caserio invested $52.3 million last season, the sixth most in the NFL. That group had an Adjusted Sack Rate of 9.1% of their dropback passes, as compared to their 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate in 2023-24. Quarterback C.J. Stroud enjoyed a clean pocket in only 59% of his dropbacks, ranking second-to-last (just above Deshaun Watson) for qualifying quarterbacks. Granted, three starters are gone from that group, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom Caserio traded to Washington. He struggled with run blocking. There were red flags on left guard Kenyon Green. Paying Shaq Mason may not be prudent. But who are the replacements? Cam Robinson was signed from Minnesota at left tackle. Jacksonville benched him midseason, before trading him to the Vikings. He leads a pack of free agent signees that are classic retreads, with the only variation being either (a) wait until you see them return to form recovering from injury, or (b) maybe a new environment can get the remaining fuel out of his tank. These are low-end band aids solutions to what was a bad offensive line last year. Caserio did draft left tackle Airenotae Ersery in the second round of the draft, so perhaps he ends up in the mix, which segues into my draft rant. When I watch the NFL draft in April, most of my attention is on the start of the NBA and NHL playoffs. It takes the July deep dive for me to really contemplate the implications of those draft-day moves. I was struck that Caserio felt it desirable to take both wide receivers from Iowa State in the first three rounds. Quite an endorsement for a Cyclones offense that scored just 19 points in their 25-point loss to Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game. But, OK, a team’s draft board is their draft board — so if Jaylin Noel is available in the third round after nabbing Jayden Higgs in the second round, you do it. But then, Caserio drafted two USC players in a row? And all of his nine draft picks came from Power Four conference schools. That rang some bells, reminding me of Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke, who picked 12 of 13 players from Power Five conference teams in the 2024 draft. In 2024, Caserio also went nine for nine in selecting Power Four conference teams, including another two from that powerhouse USC program (both on defense, mind you, but at least one of the two 2025 picks from USC was an offensive player). In 2023, Caserio only drafted eight of his nine players from Power Five conferences because Notre Dame is an independent. He nabbed two from Alabama in that draft. In 2022, Caserio drafted all nine of his players from Power Five conferences, including two from Alabama and two from LSU. With bated breath, I went to his first year as the Texans’ GM after serving as the Personnel Director for Bill Belichick for 13 seasons. With only five picks in the draft (after, admittedly, trading fourth and fifth round picks for the third round pick on wide receiver Nico Collins, although the advice of passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton, who coached Collins at Michigan), Caserio chose five players from Power Five conference programs. To summarize, Caserio has made 41 draft picks — and 40 of those 41 selections were from Power Four or Five conferences, with the lone exception being a player from Notre Dame (who do not play in a conference as an independent). Simply spectacular. Granted, I get it: the better athletes play at Power Four/Five conference schools. But so do the other 31 teams in the NFL get that, too? It’s not a secret. In an NFL where players like  Maxx Crosby and Bobby Wagner came from non-Power Five conference schools, not taking more chances on those players seems like missing opportunities for high-end returns. And then to compound matters, Caserio made this statement when responding to criticism that he did not do enough to fortify the offensive line in last April’s draft: “The whole perception, well, you need this position, you need that position, I mean, that’s made up, we don’t approach it that way. … This whole concept of drafting for need, honest to God, I don’t even know what it means.” Honestly, FFS. It means when your quarterback got sacked 52 times last year and took a step back in his sophomore season, you try to fix that problem — and then you use the nonsense cliches to justify your decisions (see Bull Durham). Even Baalke would watch enough Thursday Night Football on ESPN to find the occasional left tackle from Appalachian State. Even the reigning king of TV scouting, former Las Vegas Raiders GM and Jon Gruden yes-man Mike Mayock, flexed his Saturday scouting regimen by watching SportsCenter at night to discover some hotshot from a Group of Five school to pick after reaching for Clemson talent in the first round. But we have a new undisputed champion! To not ever find the moment to draft an underrated Group of Five or, dare I say it, an FCS player, even once out of 41 draft picks in five seasons, is an incredible commitment to the scouting primarily from the traditional networks on Saturdays during the football season regimen. Even a monkey randomly jabbing at the keyboard would take a stab at a North Dakota State player, and that 100th monkey might even uncover Jerry Rice. But San Francisco was drafting for need that year, those idiots. OK, rant done. Caserio’s AFC South champion team scored and allowed 21.9 Points-Per-Game last year despite their 10-7 regular season record. They only outgained their opponents by +4.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They were 7-5 in games decided by one scoring possession. They overachieved their PPG and YPG numbers with a +10 net turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 27-24 comeback victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota’s offense struggled for three quarters, with quarterback J.J. McCarthy looking rusty and uncomfortable. But after he threw that bad pick-six, he seemed to loosen up (the worst case scenario had happened, so exhale and let it rip!). He is not going to play as badly as he did in the first three quarters. He should play with more confidence out of the gates tonight. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win on the road. I am of two minds when it comes to the Vikings: they were overrated last season and now probably underrated relative to preseason expectations. Minnesota went 14-3 in the regular season last year despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.5 net Yards-Per-Game. They took advantage of a soft schedule that featured the AFC South and the New York Jets — and they swept those five games. They went 11-0 against teams that did not make the playoffs, although seven of those victories were by just one scoring possession. It was a season reminiscent of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first year when the Vikings went 13-4 before getting exposed at home against the New York Giants. This time, all four of Minnesota’s losses were against the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams — and after closing out their season by getting crushed by the Lions and Rams by a combined 58-10 margin in critical games that (a) decided the NFC North (and a first round bye in the playoffs and (b) were in the first round of the postseason, they got exposed for being soft. Credit O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for not believing the hype three years ago in assuming they were closer to a Super Bowl than they were — a mistake the New York Giants made that offseason. And credit this brain trust again for making cold and realistic assessments regarding where the team is now. The nine sacks they surrendered to the Rams broke an NFL playoff record. They resisted the temptation to resign Sam Darnold, a quarterback I thought was overrated by the end of the season in those crucial games against the Lions and Rams. They resisted the siren call of Aaron Rodgers, a disaster waiting to happen. Instead, they took advantage of the rookie contract of McCarthy at quarterback and spent $300 million in free agency to get tougher on the line on both sides of the ball. Adofo-Mensah signed the Indianapolis Colts’ starting center, Ryan Kelly, and right guard, Will Fries, and drafted Donovan Jackson from Ohio State in the first round to shore up the interior of their line. The defense added veteran pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line. Generating a pass rush without having defensive coordinator Brian Flores dial up blitzes at quite the league-leading 38.9% of opponent dropbacks will help the pass defense that ranked 28th in the NFL by allowing 242.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Vikings ranked second in defense, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. After tying for a league-most 33 takeaways, those impressive marks are probably not sustainable — but they could improve on the 335.4 total YPG they gave up last season, ranking 16th in the league. However, the key is McCarthy in what remains essentially his rookie season. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments that continue to be made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 22-year-old ran a 4.48-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” A pair of pundits, whom I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated in his final season. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game that was not as effective as it was the year before. Lately, I have been hearing how mediocre he was in the fourth quarter at Michigan. What are you talking about, Cowherd? I don’t expect you to have watched the Illinois game in late November of his rookie season when he rallied a banged-up Wolverines offense to a second game-winning field goal to keep their undefeated season (and playoff hopes alive). But I do expect Cowherd to put down the cocktail and watch the semifinals in the College Football Playoff two years ago when McCarthy orchestrated a touchdown-tying drive in the two-minute drill against the Alabama defense to force overtime before leading Michigan to the game-winning touchdown in overtime. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — my concerns with him are rarely identified in the media I consume. But I’m kinda bullish on what McCarthy can do under O’Connell’s quarterback whispering guidance with weapons like Justin Jeffersonand T.J. Hockenson (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). For me, his comp is Patrick Mahomes, which I know is a bold statement. Here’s why. Like Mahomes, he has an instinctual ability to extend plays with his legs to get out of trouble, reset the pocket, and find an open receiver. No, I don’t expect him to throw left-handed passes. He was also trained by head coach Jim Harbaugh to resist using his legs to gain yards on earlier downs and only reach into that bag of tricks on money downs — something Mahomes has mastered. He also has Mahomes’ leadership skills. We know O’Connell likes him — and that is a good segue into my closing thoughts. The Vikings were 9-1 in games decided by one-scoring possession last year — and now they are 10-1 in those games after last week. Sure, that seems unsustainable. But at a certain point, when a team posts a 26-9 record in games decided by eight points or less, if you keep on betting on the Regression Gods to appear, you are going to go broke banking on the Gambler’s Fallacy. Like the Chiefs’ consistently winning close games, at a certain point, I think it is reflective of the coaching staff. O’Connell won the NFL Coach of the Year award last year — and I still think he is underrated. Granted, he has yet to win a playoff game. But as opposed to many head coaches in the league, he does not pretend his team is something that has not yet proven. I don’t think Minnesota is going 14-3 again, but I will not be surprised if they are a better team on the field on both sides of the ball. The Vikings present an interesting contrast with this Falcons team, where there seems to be a dysfunction in the decision-making of this organization. As I wrote in my deep dive of this team last year, I didn’t mind the Kirk Cousins signing per se, nor the drafting of Michael Penix as the eighth pick in the draft (although I would have taken J.J. McCarthy). The issue was: why do both? I don’t know what the goal is if you take two dates to the prom. I know what the 1980s teen comedy goal would be — and the Falcons fell far short of that by missing the playoffs for the sixth straight season with their 8-9 record. Cousins started alright with the Falcons going 6-3 — but it was shaky. When defenses finally realized blitzing him up the middle was cosmic death for the offense, he imploded. Now, he has a shoulder injury excuse from Week 10 to rely on … and I got a Jagermeister excuse for my prom night. Whatever. Cousins is done in Atlanta — but their failure to trade him in the offseason means a $10 million roster bonus hit in 2026 on top of the $40 million salary cap this year because the owner wanted to solve the darn quarterback problem. And just because Cousins is not the solution, does that mean Plan B is the solution? Penix only completed 58.1% of his passes last season with a Passer Rating of 78.9 — and his three starts were against the New York Giants, Washington, and Carolina, which had some of the worst defenses in the league. Yeah, he passes an eye test because we all want to believe — but those “get off my lawn” numbers pop up. Last week, Penix passed for 298 yards — but he only had one touchdown pass and completed only 27 of his 42 passes for a 64.2% completion percentage. The other side of the ball is probably the Falcons’ bigger concern. Their defense ranked 23rd or lower in Adjusted Sack Rate for the ninth straight season last year. After ranking 23rd in the NFL by surrendering 345.2 Yards-Per-Game, they are replacing defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, edge rusher Matthew Judon, and strong safety Justin Simmons. If you want to know where the Cousins' money was spent, start there. General manager Terry Fontenot finally addressed the pass rush by drafting Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker and then trading up for Tennessee linebacker James Pearce Jr. in the first round — but this whiffed of trying to cram for the final exam by pulling an all-nighter. Pearce had motivation questions with the Volunteers — and Fontenot swapped the ’25 second round pick and the 2026 first round pick to grab him. It’s just more WTF. Grab two quarterbacks, just solve that problem! Grab two first-round edge rushers, just solve that problem. Kick the can on the ramifications. Admittedly, owner Arthur Blank is in the twilight of his life. Is this the way to run a business? Or a football team? Maybe it is, if time is short and you have not reached the playoffs in seven straight seasons. But please realize you are playing craps. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against fellow NFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is dealing with some injuries — but in O’Connell, I trust, to keep his team in the game by not making game management mistakes and pull out another close game. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Minnesota Vikings (276) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 27-24 comeback victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Atlanta defense for their loss to the Buccaneers — they held their explosive offense to just 260 yards and 4.7 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons generated 357 total yards, but they had their offense on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. The 5.1 YPP they averaged would have only ranked 14th in the league last season. I do expect head coach Raheem Morris to once again attempt to win the time of possession battle — especially when playing on the road. Atlanta opened as the underdog last week but closed as a small favorite in many spots — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Second-year quarterback Michael Penix was solid last week after throwing for 298 yards. But he only had one touchdown pass and completed only 27 of his 42 passes for a 64.2% completion percentage. This is an area of concern after he only completed 58.1% of his passes last season. He posted a Passer Rating of 78.9 last year — and his three starts were against the New York Giants, Washington, and Carolina, which had some of the worst defenses in the league. Yeah, he passes an eye test because we all want to believe — but those “get off my lawn” numbers pop up. General manager Terry Fontenot finally addressed the pass rush by drafting Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker and then trading up for Tennessee linebacker James Pearce Jr. in the first round. The Falcons have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Minnesota’s offense struggled for three quarters with quarterback J.J. McCarthy looking rusty and uncomfortable. But after he threw that bad pick six, he seemed to loosen up (the worst case scenario had happened, so exhale and let it rip!). In the end, head coach Kevin O’Connell only drew up 20 pass plays for him — and the Vikings managed just 254 yards. I don’t think that conservative game plan changes much in McCarthy’s second game — especially since O’Connell assumes his strong defense and his strong game management is a reliable path to victory. Minnesota has now won 10 of their last 11 games decided by one-scoring possession going back to last season. Left tackle Christian Darrisow is coming back from a torn ACL and did not play last week — and he is declared out for this contest. I think the McCarthy we saw in the fourth quarter is the version he is going to become eventually — but I don’t think those final 15 minutes simply flipped the switch for him. He still has only played one competitive game since winning the national championship for Michigan in January of 2024. Nerves has always been an issue with him — he’s only 22 years old! The defense added veteran pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line. Generating a pass rush without having defensive coordinator Brian Flores dial up blitzes at quite the league-leading 38.9% of opponent dropbacks will help the pass defense that tanked 28th in the NFL by allowing 242.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. They generated pressure 30  times last week against the Bears’ Caleb Williams. The Vikings ranked second in defense, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. After tying for a league-most 33 takeaways, those impressive marks are probably not sustainable — but they could improve on the 335.4 total YPG they gave up last season, ranking 16th in the league. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. They have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFC Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (275) and the Minnesota Vikings (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (174) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (173). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-1) returns to the field after their 27-24 upset loss at Miami (FL) as a 3-point favorite two weeks ago on August 31st. Texas A&M (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 44-22 victory at home against Utah State as a 35-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame was sluggish in their season debut on the road against the Hurricanes — and it was a questionable game plan. For some reason, the offense approach was to lean on the arm of true freshman C.J. Carr rather than junior running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Those two only ran the ball 16 times combined for 78 yards while Carr attempted 30 passes, completing 19 of these. Give credit to Carr, as he almost rallied Notre Dame back from a 21-7 deficit midway through the third quarter to almost pull out the win. Perhaps head coach Marcus Freeman had ulterior motives in mind in this contest, as he planned out a likely second straight playoff appearance given their soft schedule. Or, perhaps Freeman and his coaching staff are simply high on their own supply after reaching the national championship game last January. I will be watching to make that assessment. However, this showdown with the Aggies is clearly a must-win game — so I expect Love and Price to get plenty of touches after an extra week off to reassess where the offense is at. As it is, the Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 9 of their 10 games since Freeman took over after a bye week. They have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their games after a straight-up loss in the last two seasons. I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” in the past, who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but I like his turning the offense over to the redshirt freshman, Carr, to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield with Love and Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.” Against Texas A&M, they should roll. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Texas A&M has won their opening two games of the season with victories against UTSA and then Utah State last week. But the Aggies' defense has looked vulnerable. They have given up points in all eight of their opponents’ drives inside their 40-yard line — and they surrendered 4.3 Points-Per-Trip inside their 40-yard line. They have already missed 22 tackles in those two games. Furthermore, they have surrendered seven explosive rushing plays of 15 or yards. In an albeit small sample size, their defense ranks 134th in Opponent Expected Points Allowed per Rushing Attempt despite facing two Group of Five opponents. That is not a good sign when now playing on the road in South Bend, at night, against talented backs like Love and Price. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win, including five of those seven games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games outside the SEC, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (174) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (103) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (104). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-0) kicked off their season with a 21-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (1-0) comes off a 27-13 victory at home against Detroit as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should build off the momentum of this victory against a fellow NFC East rival — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their 14 games after a straight-up win since Dan Quinn took over as their head coach last season. The Commanders generated 432 yards last week against what will likely be a good Giants defense. Jayden Daniels was effective by completing 19 of 30 passes for 233 yards and adding another 68 yards on the ground from 11 carries. Second-year head coach Dan Quinn indicated this week that while 11 carries will not be the normal expectation for his quarterback, there will be certain opponents where he will have the green light to challenge opposing defenses with his legs. Considering that they may need to hold a potential tie-breaker against the Packers when it comes to determining home-field advantage in the postseason, don't be surprised if Daniels is unleashed to use his legs. Not many people had this team penciled into the NFC Championship Game before the season started. As I began my deep dive for them for this year, I assumed I would conclude they were a regression candidate. Including the postseason, they enjoyed a 9-2 record in games decided by seven points or less, including their miracle Hail Mary victory against Chicago. They only outgained their opponents by +39.7 net Yards-Per-Game. Daniels may be susceptible to the not uncommon sophomore slump after sensational rookie seasons at the position. But after my methodical look at this team, I have more reasons for optimism than I thought I would. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury had the best season of his career in operating an offense. I have never been a big fan, but he deserves lots of credit for stewarding Daniels’ rookie season. His offense seemed to add a new layer schematically each and every week. He finally added some pre-snap motion into the mix, which made his typical up-tempo attack a little predictable. He always has been a strong designer of running plays — and Washington ranked third in the league by averaging 154.1 rushing Yards-Per-Game (but much of that was from Daniels' scrambling). I think second-year general manager Adam Peters had a very nice offseason. He made two splashy trades by acquiring wide receiver Deebo Samuel from San Francisco and left tackle Laremy Tunsil from Houston. A year removed from playing with a case of pneumonia last season, Samuels can be an interesting chess piece for Kingsbury. Adding Tunsil and then drafting left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. from Oregon is adding help and protecting the investment in their star franchise quarterback. Peters also signed or re-signed 12 players in free agency. Looking at their defense, it is not loaded with star players — but I kept on reading and re-reading descriptions like “versatile” or “chemistry-builder.” Quinn is building the defense in his image. While generating only 17 takeaways with a turnover rate in 8% of their opponent’s possessions last year was far below the numbers Quinn’s defenses enjoyed in Dallas, it would not be surprising if they forced more turnovers this season. Clearly, there is an urgency to strike while the iron is hot with Daniels in his rookie contract. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games in the first half of the season since Quinn took over. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games against fellow NFC rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their 16 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range under Quinn. Green Bay comes off a triumphant victory against the Lions on Sunday — but they only outgained them by +20 net yards and generated just 266 yards of offense against them. This game was closer than the final score appeared. Detroit had several long drives where they either came up empty or settled for short field goals of 27 and 30 yards. And while Jordan Love’s stats were very efficient, he still had shaky moments where he was careless of the football — he threw a ball that should have been picked off by Lions’ linebacker Alex Anzalone that could have changed the tenor of that game. The Packers were one of my sleeper teams that could threaten to make a deep postseason run last year. Instead, they lost their final three games of the season, culminating in a 22-10 loss at Philadelphia in the NFC wildcard round of the playoffs. Green Bay was only 1-5 against their NFC North division rivals — and they were 0-6 against Detroit, Minnesota, and the Eagles. Love did not post a Passer Rating above 92.0 in his last four games — and he threw three picks in the playoff loss to Philadelphia. And after my raving about head coach Matt LaFleur in my deep dive last year, after he oversaw significant improvements on both sides of the ball the previous season, he endured his worst season as a head coach in his six years, with game management issues compounded by too many lapses of unneeded emotional outbursts. Perhaps the pressure of expectations got to him? Perhaps that impacted the team? Well, with a postseason record of just 1-3 since the 2021-21 season, he is on the hot seat now with general manager Brian Gutekunst invoking the “urgency” alarm regarding how he views this season. And to be fair to Love, it remains a mystery how much injuries impacted his disappointing season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers, which makes me still consider whether the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. A year later, yeah, I don’t know. I will be watching and learning. Wide receiver Christian Watson will miss most, if not all, of the season due to the torn ACL he suffered in the regular season finale — and first-round draft pick Matthew Golden was in a committee of wide receivers at Texas last season. But my biggest question with this team has become whether or not they have enough superstars who can simply overwhelm opponent coaching by their brilliance in talent on the field. They lack an elite cover cornerback. Rashan Gary has never met his vast potential on the defensive line and seems more of a number two pass rusher than a pure disrupter at the line of scrimmage. Now, certainly, the trade for Micah Parsons may be exactly what this team needs — and he did have a sack last week. But he was mostly put in check by Detroit’s Penei Sewell in that game. If there is any head coach who is familiar with his weaknesses, it would be his original defensive coordinator in the league, who just so happens to be Quinn. Parsons was on a limited snap count last week — and playing four days later, his presence on the field is not likely to rise significantly after he missed all of the Cowboys’ training camp due to his back injury (before getting traded to Green Bay). Maybe this is a roster of very nice players that is no longer as limited after getting the superstar game-changer on defense that is essential to win games in the postseason. But we are in early September, right now. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after playing at home in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 regular season games against teams from the NFC East.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games as Quinn as their head coach when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (103) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (103) and the Green Bay Packers (104). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-0) kicked off their season with a 21-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (1-0) comes off a 27-13 victory at home against Detroit as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Commanders generated 432 yards last week against what will likely be a good Giants defense. Jayden Daniels was effective by completing 19 of 30 passes for 233 yards and adding another 68 yards on the ground from 11 carries. Second-year head coach Dan Quinn indicated this week that while 11 carries will not be the normal expectation for his quarterback, there will be certain opponents where he will have the green light to challenge opposing defenses with his legs. Considering that they may need to hold a potential tie-breaker against the Packers when it comes to determining home-field advantage in the postseason, don't be surprised if Daniels is unleashed to use his legs. Washington has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury had the best season of his career in operating an offense last year for this team. I have never been a big fan, but he deserves lots of credit for stewarding Daniels’ rookie season. His offense seemed to add a new layer schematically each and every week. He finally added some pre-snap motion into the mix, which made his typical up-tempo attack a little predictable. He always has been a strong designer of running plays — and Washington ranked third in the league by averaging 154.1 rushing Yards-Per-Game (but much of that was from Daniels' scrambling). I think second-year general manager Adam Peters had a very nice offseason. He made two splashy trades by acquiring wide receiver Deebo Samuel from San Francisco and left tackle Laremy Tunsil from Houston. A year removed from playing with a case of pneumonia last season, Samuels can be an interesting chess piece for Kingsbury. Adding Tunsil and then drafting left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. from Oregon is adding help and protecting the investment in their star franchise quarterback. But on the other side of the ball, losing strong safety Jeremy Chin and defensive end Donte Fowler in the offseason stings. It was also surprising that Peters decided to cut bait on defensive tackle Jonathan Allen after the defense ranked 30th by allowing 137.5 rushing YPG last year. The Commanders have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Packers were one of my sleeper teams that could threaten to make a deep postseason run last year. Instead, they lost their final three games of the season, culminating in a 22-10 loss at Philadelphia in the NFC wildcard round of the playoffs. Quarterback Jordan Love did not post a Passer Rating above 92.0 in his last four games — and he threw three picks in the playoff loss to Philadelphia. But to be fair to him, it remains a mystery how much injuries impacted his disappointing season. In their prophetic opener against the Eagles in Brazil, Love suffered an MCL injury playing on the slick soccer field stadium grass. He played through the injury before missing 2 1/2 games due to a groin injury. He might have returned too soon for that mishap before injuring his elbow in the season finale — and that injury might have played a role in him throwing three interceptions against Philly in their playoff game. Another factor in defense of Love is that his wide receivers dropped 33 passes last season, the third-most in the NFL. Those wide receivers dropped 6.9% of the passes thrown at them, the second-most in the league. So, I don’t know how to assess where Love is at as he enters his sixth year in the league. As I wrote in my deep dive last season: “In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers, which makes me still consider whether the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season.” A year later, yeah, I don’t know. I will be watching and learning. If last week’s game was any indication, a healthy Love appears poised to regain his form in the second half of the 23-24 season. He completed 16 of 22 passes for 188 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Ten different receivers caught passes against the Lions. The Packers have played 27 of their 40 games Over the Total under head coach Matt LaFleur after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow NFC North rival. They have also played 6 of their 9 games on Thursday Night Football Over the Total in LaFleur’s tenure.

FINAL TAKE: Just an observation, I suspect there are going to be more higher scoring games this year, given the changes in the kickoff rule to give the ball to the offense on the 35-yard line after touchbacks. This is incentivizing the kicking teams to try to force kickoff returns — and that will lead to more special teams touchdowns and turnovers deep in their territory. After only 33% of kickoffs were returned last season, last week saw that mark more than double as 75% of kickoffs were returned. For these two teams, Quinn’s teams in his NFL coaching career have played 16 of their 25 games played in September Over the Total (despite him being a defensive coach) — and the Packers have played 13 of their 22 games in September Under the Total with LaFleur as their head coach. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (103) and the Green Bay Packers (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (481) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (482). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) comes off a 14-4 campaign that ended with a 27-9 loss at home against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL wildcard round of the playoffs. Chicago (0-0) finished 5-12 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINT(S): I am of two minds when it comes to the Vikings: they were overrated last season and now probably underrated relative to preseason expectations. Minnesota went 14-3 in the regular season last year despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.5 net Yards-Per-Game. They took advantage of a soft schedule that featured the AFC South and the New York Jets — and they swept those five games. They went 11-0 against teams that did not make the playoffs, although seven of those victories were by just one scoring possession. It was a season reminiscent of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first year when the Vikings went 13-4 before getting exposed at home against the New York Giants. This time, all four of Minnesota’s losses were against the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams — and after closing out their season by getting crushed by the Lions and Rams by a combined 58-10 margin in critical games that (a) decided the NFC North (and a first round bye in the playoffs and (b) were in the first round of the postseason, they got exposed for being soft. Credit O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for not believing the hype three years ago in assuming they were closer to a Super Bowl than they were — a mistake the New York Giants made that offseason. And credit this brain trust again for making cold and realistic assessments regarding where the team is now. The nine sacks they surrendered to the Rams broke an NFL playoff record. They resisted the temptation to resign Sam Darnold, a quarterback I thought was overrated by the end of the season, in those crucial games against the Lions and Rams. They resisted the siren call of Aaron Rodgers, a disaster waiting to happen. Instead, they took advantage of the rookie contract of quarterback J.J. McCarthy and spent $300 million in free agency to get tougher on the line on both sides of the ball. Adofo-Mensah signed the Indianapolis Colts’ starting center, Ryan Kelly, and right guard, Ryan Kelly, and drafted Donovan Jackson from Ohio State in the first round to shore up the interior of their line. Left tackle Christian Darrisow is coming back from a torn ACL. If he can return to form, Minnesota could have an excellent offensive line with the stout Brian O’Neill at right tackle. The defense added veteran pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line. Generating a pass rush without having defensive coordinator Brian Flores dial up blitzes at quite the league-leading 38.9% of opponent dropbacks will help the pass defense that tanked 28th in the NFL by allowing 242.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Vikings ranked second in defense, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. After tying for a league-most 33 takeaways, those impressive marks are probably not sustainable — but they could improve on the 335.4 total YPG they gave up last season, ranking 16th in the league. However, the key is McCarthy in what remains essentially his rookie season. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments that continue to be made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 22-year-old ran a 4.48-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” A pair of pundits, whom I have great respect for their insight on the NFL, made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated in his final season. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game that was not as effective as it was the year before. Lately, I have been hearing how mediocre he was in the fourth quarter at Michigan. What are you talking about, Cowherd? I don’t expect you to have watched the Illinois game in late November of his rookie season when he rallied a banged-up Wolverines offense to a second game-winning field goal to keep their undefeated season (and playoff hopes alive). But I do expect Cowherd to put down the cocktail and watch the semifinals in the College Football Playoff two years ago when McCarthy orchestrated a touchdown-tying drive in the two-minute drill against the Alabama defense to force overtime before leading Michigan to the game-winning touchdown in overtime. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — my concerns with him are rarely identified in the media I consume. But I’m kinda bullish on what McCarthy can do under O’Connell’s quarterback whispering guidance with weapons like J.J. Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). For me, his comp is Patrick Mahomes, which I know is a bold statement. Here’s why. Like Mahomes, he has an instinctual ability to extend plays with his legs to get out of trouble, reset the pocket, and find an open receiver. No, I don’t expect him to throw left-handed passes. He was also trained by head coach Jim Harbaugh to resist using his legs to gain yards on earlier downs and only reach into that bag of tricks on money downs — something Mahomes has mastered. He also has Mahomes’ leadership skills. We know O’Connell likes him — and that is a good segue into my closing thoughts. The Vikings were 9-1 in games decided by one-scoring possession last year. That seems unsustainable. But at a certain point, when a team posts a 25-9 record in games decided by eight points or less, if you keep on betting on the Regression Gods to appear, you are going to go broke banking on the Gambler’s Fallacy. Like the Chiefs’ consistently winning close games, at a certain point, I think it is reflective of the coaching staff. O’Connell won the NFL Coach of the Year award last year — and I still think he is underrated. Granted, he has yet to win a playoff game. But as opposed to many head coaches in the league, he does not pretend his team is something that has not yet proven. I don’t think Minnesota is going 14-3 again, but I will not be surprised if they are a better team on the field on both sides of the ball. I am not expecting a banner night for McCarthy in his professional debut — especially on the road in a prime-time game. O’Connell is likely to implement a conservative game plan that leans on their ground game, good offensive line, and what should be a really good defense. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home when favored. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. The Bears started last season winning four of their first six games — and then the wheels fell off the proverbial wagon as they lost ten games in a row and finished the season with a 5-12 record. Third-year head coach Matt Eberflus fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on November 12th. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown was elevated to run the offense despite not having previous experience calling plays. When Eberflus was then fired after a Thanksgiving loss to Detroit, Brown’s new job responsibilities doubled by being named the interim head coach. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams barely had a chance given all this chaos. He played behind an offensive line that was last in the NFL by surrendering 68 sacks — and Pro Football Focus ranked that group as the worst unit in the league in pass blocking efficiency. In hindsight, Waldron was not the right mentor for Williams, despite having come from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Brown was overwhelmed. The passing game too often devolved into various screens or other quick passes designed primarily to protect their investment at quarterback. The assumption now is that Williams will get the best coaching possible now that the franchise hired the Lions’ wunderkind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their next head coach. I think the jury is still out on that question. Certainly, he is a good designer of plays and game plans. However, I worry that he can be too flashy at the expense of the best interests of the team. The play call asking wide receiver Jameson Williams to throw a surprise pass in the fourth quarter in their playoff loss against Washington demonstrated terrible judgment and a concerning predilection to rely on his genius play-calls to find success rather than putting his players in the best position to succeed. Detroit might win that game if Jared Goff executed that play rather than Williams predictably throwing an interception and keeping his team down two scoring possessions. Johnson certainly benefited from inheriting a smart, veteran quarterback in Goff, who had already played in a Super Bowl. But neither Johnson nor anyone on his offensive coaching staff has been directly involved in developing a young quarterback. His offensive coordinator is Declan Doyle, who is a protégé of Sean Payton. At least Doyle observed Payton’s work with Bo Nix as Denver’s tight ends coach. Just because Johnson draws up sweet plays does not mean he has the skills to mentor and oversee the improvement of a raw but inexperienced talent at quarterback. And we have no idea how his leadership skills will translate. He talks a big game, but there is a long list of cocky offensive coordinators whose schtick gets old very quickly when tasked with running a football team (Josh McDaniels comes to mind, and Chicago recently tried with this type with Matt Nagy). Now here comes Flores, who is not only very familiar with the second-year QB but also Johnson’s gimmicks as a play-caller. The Bears' defense may be without cornerback back, Jalen Johnson, who is listed as questionable with a groin injury -- that would be a big loss since he would have drawn the assignment to defend Jefferson.

FINAL TAKE: O’Connell has a big game-management coaching edge over Johnson in his NFL debut as a head coach — especially since Johnson is also calling the offensive plays. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Bears. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (481) minus the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (481) and the Chicago Bears (482). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) comes off a 14-4 campaign that ended with a 27-9 loss at home against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL wildcard round of the playoffs. Chicago (0-0) finished 5-12 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings resisted the temptation to resign Sam Darnold, a quarterback I thought was overrated by the end of the season in those crucial games against the Lions and Rams. They resisted the siren call of Aaron Rodgers, a disaster waiting to happen. Instead, they took advantage of the rookie contract of quarterback J.J. McCarthy and spent $300 million in free agency. The defense should be better after adding veteran pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to the defensive line. Generating a pass rush without having defensive coordinator Brian Flores dial up blitzes at quite the league-leading 38.9% of opponent dropbacks will help the pass defense that tanked 28th in the NFL by allowing 242.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Vikings ranked second in defense, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. The 19.5 Points-Per-Game they surrendered was the fifth-lowest mark in the league. After tying for a league-most 33 takeaways, that impressive mark is probably not sustainable — but they could improve on the 335.4 total YPG they gave up last season, ranking 16th in the league. However, the key is McCarthy in what remains essentially his rookie season. While I am bullish on his future, I am not expecting a banner night in his professional debut — especially on the road in a prime-time game. O’Connell is likely to implement a conservative game plan that leans on their ground game, good offensive line, and what should be a really good defense. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played five of their last six games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. The Vikings have also played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. The Bears started last season winning four of their first six games — and then the wheels fell off the proverbial wagon as they lost ten games in a row and finished the season with a 5-12 record. Third-year head coach Matt Eberflus fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on November 12th. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown was elevated to run the offense despite not having previous experience calling plays. When Eberflus was then fired after a Thanksgiving loss to Detroit, Brown’s new job responsibilities doubled by being named the interim head coach. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams barely had a chance given all this chaos. He played behind an offensive line that was last in the NFL by surrendering 68 sacks — and Pro Football Focus ranked that group as the worst unit in the league in pass blocking efficiency. In hindsight, Waldron was not the right mentor for Williams, despite having come from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Brown was overwhelmed. The passing game too often devolved into various screens or other quick passes designed primarily to protect their investment at quarterback. The assumption now is that Williams will get the best coaching possible now that the franchise hired the Lions’ wunderkind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their next head coach. I think the jury is still out on that question. Certainly, he is a good designer of plays and game plans. However, I worry that he can be too flashy at the expense of the best interests of the team. The play call asking wide receiver Jameson Williams to throw a surprise pass in the fourth quarter in their playoff loss against Washington demonstrated terrible judgment and a concerning predilection to rely on his genius play-calls to find success rather than putting his players in the best position to succeed. Detroit might win that game if Jared Goff executed that play rather than Williams predictably throwing an interception and keeping his team down two scoring possessions. Johnson certainly benefited from inheriting a smart, veteran quarterback in Goff, who had already played in a Super Bowl. But Johnson or anyone on his offensive coaching staff has been directly involved in developing a young quarterback. His offensive coordinator is Declan Doyle, who is a protégé of Sean Payton. At least Doyle observed Payton’s work with Bo Nix as Denver’s tight ends coach. Just because Johnson draws up sweet plays does not mean he has the skills to mentor and oversee the improvement of a raw but inexperienced talent at quarterback. And we have no idea how his leadership skills will translate. He talks a big game, but there is a long list of cocky offensive coordinators whose schtick gets old very quickly when tasked with running a football team (Josh McDaniels comes to mind, and Chicago recently tried with this type with Matt Nagy). Frankly, after watching the Bears in the preseason — and Johnson’s fluffing of backup quarterback Tyson Bangent — my concerns are only heightened. Williams still seems to be a work in progress in executing the offense Johnson wants to show the world. Now here comes Flores, who is not only very familiar with the second-year QB but also Johnson’s gimmicks as a play-caller. Former New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen takes over the defense. Adding a 23-year NFL coaching veteran with six years of head coaching experience at two stops should help stabilize the young coaching staff. Injuries played a role in the defense's sputtering in the second half of the season. The Bears ranked 27th in the league by surrendering 354.2 total Yards-Per-Game with the biggest weakness being their run defense. Chicago allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry, which resulted in them giving up 138.3 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the league. If Allen can get that cleaned up, the Bears do have a talented secondary that thrived in the second half of the 2023-24 season. Don’t be surprised if Johnson anticipates a conservative game plan from the Vikings and leans on his running game as well in what he expects to be a lower-scoring game. Chicago played 3 of their 4 games in the first month of the season with Johnson at QB last year, Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing away from home. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (481) and the Chicago Bears (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (480) plus the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (479) and the Buffalo Bills (480). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) looks to take the next step after losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game by a 32-29 score. Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 27-25 upset loss at Buffalo as a 1.5-point road favorite in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Many observers thought the Bills were destined to take a step back last season after saying goodbye to wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I disagreed because I like the increased reliance on the run game once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for Ken Dorsey late last season. In my deep dive last year, I wrote: “Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons.” Sure enough, Allen only threw six interceptions all season — and his eight turnovers (accounting for two lost fumbles) were the only giveaways the offense experienced all season. That is spectacular. Not making those mistakes — and Allen taking only 14 sacks all season — helped the offense rank second in the NFL by scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game. They reached the 30-point plateau 13 times while scoring at least 27 points 15 times and getting to 40 or more points three times. Even with some regression in the turnover department, the offense should remain explosive. The outstanding offensive line remains intact. A common criticism is that Buffalo lacks the prototype WR1 target, but the balance (and lack of drama) from the array of targets may be just what Allen needs to thrive. And there are reasons for optimism. Both Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kinked played through injury. Second-year wideout Keon Coleman should continue to grow. The bigger problem is on the other side of the ball with a defense that had its most inefficient season since 2020. The Bills were not bad on defense — they ranked tied for 11th by holding their opponents to 21.6 PPG. On the other hand, they only outgained their opponents by +17.6 net Yards-Per-Game which is not commensurate with their 13-4 record in the regular season. Buffalo has been an elite team for five straight seasons — but it is their defense that is holding them back. General manager Brandon Beane knows the problem and targeted the defense with his first five draft picks and six of his top seven selections in the NFL draft last April, focusing on cornerbacks, defensive tackles, and edge rushers. Getting Matt Milano healthy again at linebacker should help. The Bills have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against fellow AFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Baltimore won the overall Football Outsiders/Fantasy FTN DVOA regular season championship for the third time since 2019 — but the biggest question remains whether or not they can get over the hump in their journey through the suffering of learning how to win in the postseason. Lamar Jackson played better in last year’s playoffs — but untimely mistakes and some bad luck continue to haunt this team. After losing wide receiver Zac Flowers to injury for the playoffs (the guy who fumbled at the goal-line in their previous playoff loss), Baltimore committed three turnovers, and veteran tight end Mark Andrews made two costly plays in the second half — most notably dropping a pass from Jackson right in the bread basket, which would have converted a late two-point conversion. That gaffe ends up being the difference in a 27-25 loss at Buffalo. And so it continues. The Ravens are certainly not the first professional franchise put through the emotional ringer of suffering heartbreak after heartbreak before finally breaking through. They are going to have to start making their own luck. They did not force a turnover in either playoff game last season (and after forcing 31 takeaways in 2023-24, that only generated 17 turnovers last year). They need to avoid another 0-2 start in a mission to claim home-field advantage. Both teams will be playing this game as if it could potentially determine the home field advantage they both crave, finally representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Baltimore is missing two underrated pieces of their offense, with both tight end Isaiah Likely and fullback Patrick Ricard out for this game with injuries. Both of those players play important roles in their power running game — and Likely is an emerging target for Jackson in the passing game.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has won 10 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams — and these home teams have covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (480) plus the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (479) and the Buffalo Bills (480). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 27-25 upset loss at Buffalo as a 1.5-point road favorite in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. Buffalo (0-0) lost the next week in the AFC Championship Game in a 32-29 loss at Kansas City.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Those two playoff games for the Bills offer more evidence that they tend to get into shootouts when facing the best teams in the league. Many observers thought the Bills were destined to take a step back last season after saying goodbye to wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I disagreed because I like the increased reliance on the run game once Joe Brady took over at offensive coordinator for Ken Dorsey late last season. In my deep dive last year, I wrote: “Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons.” Sure enough, Allen only threw six interceptions all season — and his eight turnovers (accounting for two lost fumbles) were the only giveaways the offense experienced all season. That is spectacular. Not making those mistakes — and Allen taking only 14 sacks all season — helped the offense rank second in the NFL by scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game. They reached the 30-point plateau 13 times while scoring at least 27 points 15 times and getting to 40 or more points three times. Even with some regression in the turnover department, the offense should remain explosive. The outstanding offensive line remains intact. A common criticism is that Buffalo lacks the prototype WR1 target, but the balance (and lack of drama) from the array of targets may be just what Allen needs to thrive. And there are reasons for optimism. Both Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kinked played through injury. Second-year wideout Keon Coleman should continue to grow. The bigger problem is on the other side of the ball with a defense that had its most inefficient season since 2020. The Bills were not bad on defense — they ranked tied for 11th by holding their opponents to 21.6 PPG. On the other hand, they only outgained their opponents by +17.6 net Yards-Per-Game which is not commensurate with their 13-4 record in the regular season. But they were 29th on 3rd Downs and 22nd in Expected Points Allowed per Pass Attempt. They surrendered the fifth-most Air Yards in the passing game. Buffalo has been an elite team for five straight seasons — but it is their defense that is holding them back. In their 12 playoff games since 2020, they are surrendering 24.2 PPG — and in their five losses, they have given up 33.2 PPG. They acquired cornerback Tra’Davious White from the Ravens to shore up their pass defense — but he is doubtful for tonight’s game with a groin injury. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games at home Over the Total against fellow AFC rivals. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Baltimore has played 4 straight Overs when playing on field turf. The Ravens offense continued to hum in the second season under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The addition of running back Derrick Henry proved inspired since he presented opposing defenses the no-win dilemma of either attempting to stop him or quarterback Lamar Jackson in Run-Pass-Option plays. Henry rushed for 1921 yards on 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and his +562 rushing yards above expected rushing yards led the NFL. Jackson added another 915 rushing yards — and Baltimore led the NFL in both Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and by generating 187.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Jackson continued to improve in the passing game by demonstrating more patience in the pocket and finding wide-open receivers on his second or third look. His 4172 passing yards, along with a 119.6 Passer Rating, were career highs. He threw 41 touchdown passes and tossed just four interceptions. This offense led the league in Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. Their defense was much improved in the second half of the season when they moved Kyle Hamilton to a base free safety in Week 11 — but the Bills still scored 27 points against them in the postseason. Remember that Baltimore did not have wide receiver Zac Flowers in that game due to injury — and they would have scored more points if not for veteran tight end Mark Andrews, who made two costly plays in the second half — most notably dropping a pass from Jackson right in the bread basket, which would have converted a late two-point conversion. The Ravens have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road in the first half of the season. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored, including six of those eight games played on the road. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against fellow AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (479) and the Buffalo Bills (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (464) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (463). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-0) looks to improve on its 3-14 season last year. Cincinnati (0-0) hopes to get back to the postseason after a 9-8 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns had a 6-2 record in games decided by four points or less two years ago. It was hard to expect that level of success in winning close games once again last season — especially with the team handcuffed to Deshaun Watson and his large contract as the answer at quarterback. It was not difficult to see how things fell apart. Sure enough, Watson posted the lowest DVOA passer rating in franchise history before suffering a second major Achilles’ injury that ended his season. Cleveland lost their final six games of the year and limped to a 3-14 record. Watson has probably played his last game with the organization — and head coach Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Barry are on the hot seat in their sixth year with the team in a litmus season where they will have to prove they have a plan to get out of the salary cap nightmare that paying a sex offender $230 million in guaranteed money can create. But given all that, the Browns are probably going to be undervalued this season, relative to point spread expectations. Stefanski got rid of first-year offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Promoting tight ends coach Tommy Rees, who had previously served as the offensive coordinator for Alabama and Notre Dame, is probably a step in the right direction since his principles are closer in line with Stefanski’s vision. Cleveland is going to run the ball more, play conservatively, attempt to limit mistakes, and lean on their defense, which was outstanding two seasons ago. — and they are returning to wide zone blocking schemes from a couple of years ago. The Browns were last in scoring last year by averaging only 15.2 Points-Per-Game. But they only got outgained by -41.3 net Yards-Per-Game. An NFL-worst -22 net turnover margin was too much to overcome. After forcing 28 turnovers two years ago, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s defense only had 12 takeaways last year. That should improve, as should their pass defense, which fell to the bottom-five in the Football Outsiders Pass DVOA metrics last season after ranking 12th two years ago. The defensive backfield core of cornerbacks Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson Jr., and Greg Newsome II, along with strong safety Grant Delpit, remains from two years ago. Don’t underestimate the impact of losing linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to a season-ending neck injury on October 27th. While he may never play again, at least Berry had the offseason to add Jerome Baker in free agency from Tennessee and draft Carson Schwesinger in the second round from UCLA to bolster the linebacker room. All-Pro Myles Garrett was re-signed to the biggest non-QB contract in the history of the NFL — and they drafted defensive tackle Mason Graham from the University of Michigan with the fifth pick, who is a a stout run defender as well as someone who can generate a pass rush from the inside. Schwartz could have another great defense on his hands, which would make the Browns an under-the-radar team. For Cincinnati, it does not take a rocket scientist to discover that it is the play of the Bengals' defense that is holding them back. Cincinnati lost four games where they scored at least 33 points — and despite scoring 25 or more points 11 times, they posted a 5-6 record in those contests. Management decided to blame Lou Anarumo for the failures of the defense. He is well-respected in NFL circles — and he was the one who began deploying the two-high safety scheme to success against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half of their AFC Championship Game back in 2023, which continued to stymie Mahomes for much of the 2023-24 season. Cincinnati parted ways with Anarumo to hire Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden. It’s a good hire. He had previously served as the linebackers coach for the Bengals in 2020-21 before taking the gig with the Fighting Irish, running their defense in 2022. My fundamental question with this team is whether “Blame Lou” is simply whitewashing the true critique to Blame Duke. Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has drafted ten players in the first three rounds of the NFL draft since 2022. Yet players like defensive linemen Kris Jenkins and Myles Murphy, along with defensive backs Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner II, Dax Hill, and Jordan Battle, have either underachieved or looked like outright busts entering the new season. Perhaps Golden can unleash their potential. But he is a first-time defensive coordinator at this level — and his fondness for linebackers may not match the modern NFL that often devalues that position in terms of drafting and the paying of second contracts. Tobin drafted two linebackers in the first four rounds while signing Will linebacker Oren Burks in free agency from Philadelphia. With so much money now locked into quarterback Joe Burrow’s second contract that kicked in this year, along with the retention of wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, perhaps banking on a defensive coordinator with a strong reputation in college for developing players was the shrewd decision. But that is no guarantee that Cincinnati will snap their two-year playoff drought. Burrow has struggled against the Browns in his career, with Myles Garrett playing a large role in his frustrations. Garrett has won eight of his 12 starts against the Bengals — and he has 13 sacks and 27 hits on the quarterback in those games. Burrow has a 3-5 straight-up record against the Browns and has been sacked 27 times. Cincinnati gave up 22 touchdowns in the air when leading on the scoreboard last season. Not only was it the worst in the NFL last year, it was also the third-worst in the league in the last decade. Don’t underestimate the veteran Joe Flacco’s ability to orchestrate a back-door cover late in this game, if necessary.  

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are notoriously a slow-starting team — and head coach Zac Taylor attempted to address that by playing Burrow and the starters in the preseason. But what if the problem is simply Taylor’s preparation and leadership early in the season? Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played in the first month of the season in the Taylor era. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (464) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (405) minus the point(s) versus the UNLV Rebels (406). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-1) looks to rebound from their 43-10 loss at home against Utah as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. UNLV (2-0) has won their opening two contests after their 38-21 victory against Sam Houston as a 9-point favorite on a neutral field in Houston last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): UCLA is typically resilient — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points.  In the program’s first season in the Big Ten, rookie head coach DeShaun Foster oversaw a 5-7 campaign where his team won four of their last six games. After the offense only generated 328.8 total YPG and 18.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 118th and 126th in the nation, he let go of offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and scored a bit of a coup by bringing in Indiana offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri. And then after an NIL dispute with the University of Tennessee, Foster landed redshirt sophomore Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal to potentially give them a potent dual-threat at quarterback after spring practice. Six starters return on offense to complement Iamaleava and Sunseri. On the other side of the ball, only two of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back. Foster did bring in 10 transfers on defense. Iamaleava struggled last week by completing only 11 of his 22 passes for 136 yards — but he faced an angry Utes defense with something to prove after a down season — and that Utah is also very good. This is the first true test for UNLV, which had two easy contests against Idaho State and then Sam Houston last week. It is a major red flag that their defense gave up 26.0 Points-Per-Game against two non-Power Four conference opponents. After 28 years of averaging just 3.3 wins per season, the Rebels brought in Barry Odom two years ago, who had years of experience as a successful head coach at Missouri before three seasons as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. And while Deion Sanders got almost all the attention for his radical attempts to use the transfer portal to quickly transfer the talent base on the roster, Odom used the same formula to immediately transform this UNLV program that went 20-8 in his two seasons in Las Vegas. The Rebels come off a historic 11-3 season where they followed up a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game by beating California in the LA Bowl. With Odom moving on to Purdue (and whiz-kid offensive coordinator Brennan Marion taking his innovative “go-go” offense to Sacramento State where he will be the new head coach), the UNLV administration doubled down on the “let’s find another guy with tons of SEC experience” by persuading Dan Mullen to leave the plushy confides of the ESPN studio seat to become the Rebels next head coach. Living here in Vegas, the program is promoting this hire with the same intensity as happy hours off the strip (meaning the hype level is high — and Mullen is rivaling Jason Kelce regarding local commercial spots). I have a basic and healthy skepticism of guys getting hired off TV. Looking up my old notes on Mullen, I was convinced he got the most out of his talent at Mississippi State in his eight years with the program while continuing his reputation as an innovative offensive mind for running quarterbacks. His four years as the head coach at Florida did not see as many glowing sidebars in the notebook. I had concerns about him winning big games (and his big achievement with the Bulldogs previously was to make them a winning team, albeit one that was not winning conference championships) before there became significant culture concerns in his third and final year with the program, before he got fired. He went into the final season on the hot seat because it was an “off the field circus” (quoting my notes), which included being on NCAA probation for recruiting violations. Two years later, in my notes, I am suggesting Gators’ head coach Billy Napier should be given some benefit of the doubt because of the talent gap he inherited — and that’s a Mullen issue. Three caveats on Mullen: (1) his career record as a head coach is 103-61; (2) his critical third year happened to land in the 2020 COVID year which disrupted everything; (3) Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr and 49ers’ general manager John Lynch were hired from TV jobs, so the track record is not 100% failure — it’s just close to that. The used-car salesman schtick has worked from the recruiting side of things. With only one starter back on each side of the ball, Mullen has hustled to bring in tons of new players as Odom did — and most of the transfers are coming from Power Four conference programs, with at least 16 of which were originally high-level blue-chippers. But many of these guys are on their third or even fourth team at this point in their career. Maybe Mullen can Slow Horses this thing (or Department Q for fans of The Queen’s Gambit) — and the misfit toys forced to work with each other can finally meet the previously untapped potential that they had once shown? But after being off the sidelines the last four seasons, is Mullen the guy who can bring all these unfamiliar parts and immediately build a culture? After flaming out in Florida? At a program that had been a perpetual doormat before a professional football coach like Odom came in? The best-case scenario is that it took someone like Odom to demonstrate the high ceiling a football program in Las Vegas has in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal — and a high-profile hire like Mullen is what is needed to take the team to the next level. Then again, I remember when the Raiders hired Jon Gruden off television a few years ago. How did that work out?

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels do not have much of a home field advantage here, playing in the Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium. They failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 home games last season. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (405) minus the point(s) versus the UNLV Rebels (406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (341) and the Kentucky Wildcats (342). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (1-0) kicked off their season with a 63-7 victory at home against Georgia State as a 33.5-point favorite last Saturday. Kentucky (1-0) began their year with a 24-16 victory at home against Toledo as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels generated 695 yards against the Panthers — and redshirt freshman Austin Simmons completed 20 of 31 passes for 341 yards. I’m intrigued by the southpaw —but the offensive effort might speak more about the state of the Georgia State defense than the level of the polish in his game. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. I suspect that head coach Lane Kiffin will lean on the rushing attack in his first start on the road — especially against a fellow SEC rival. Kiffin lost 18 starters from that team, including quarterback Jaxson Dart and three of his targets in the passing game, who all got drafted into the NFL. But the talent in the wide receiver room seems to have taken a step back (it’s not a great sign when transfers are coming in from Penn State’s underwhelming group of wideouts last year). The offensive line may be an even bigger concern. After returning 222 combined starts last year, this year’s group only has 78 combined starts from one returning starter and the transfers. Cohesion will be an issue -- and the whispers remain that the work rate of Kiffin’s offensive lines over the years can be underwhelming. The Ole Miss defense stepped up by holding the Panthers to just 260 yards of offense. Third-year defensive coordinator Pete Golding is fantastic — one of the best things Kiffin has done is poaching him away from Nick Saban and Alabama. His defense ranked second in the FBS by giving up only 14.4 PPG — and they ranked third in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SPE defensive rating system. The Rebels have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games on the road Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road, they have played 8 of those games Under the Total — and they have only scored more than 28 points once in the last two seasons on the road against a fellow SEC rival. Kentucky managed only 305 total yards last week in the victory against the Rockets. Expectations were high for seventh-year senior quarterback Zach Calzada, who is a former Texas A&M recruit who played his last two seasons at Incarnate Word. He completed only 10 of 23 passes for 85 yards with an interception and no throws deemed “Big-Time.” Against the Rockets' pass defense, he took 3.1 seconds per throw. Now he faces this Golding defense that led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss — and while much of that production went on to the NFL, junior linebacker Suntarine Perkins remains after the former five-star recruit registered 10.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss last year. Golding has designed the defense this season around his future NFL talents. Calzada failed against SEC competition early in his career when playing for the Aggies and then Auburn. It may be too much to ask for him to thrive when inheriting a Wildcats team that averaged only 330.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 20.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 114th and 119th in the nation. The Kentucky defense earned them the victory against one of the best Group of Five football programs — they held Toledo to just 329 total yards. The Wildcats run defense registered a stuff rate in 42% of the Rockets rushes — and they limited them to just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps even more encouraging head coach Mark Stoops, Toledo only executed on 8 of their 31 third or fourth down attempts. Stoops brought in defensive end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, who might have been the best player in the FCS after registering 18.5 tackles for loss at South Dakota last season, to take a central role in his defense this season. Stoops knows to slow down Kiffin’s zone-read option attack — even with Dart at quarterback, Ole Miss has scored only 19.5 PPG in the last two seasons against the Wildcats defense. Kentucky has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. And in their last 30 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, the Wildcats have played 19 of those games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: After Mississippi beat Kentucky two years ago by a 22-19 score, the Wildcats upset the Rebels last year by a 20-17 score at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 28th last season. Kentucky has played 6 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total in the first month of the season — and Ole Miss has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in September. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (341) and the Kentucky Wildcats (342). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) was 11-7 in their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh after losing by a 33-12 score at Houston in the AFC wildcard round of the playoffs. Kansas City (0-0) comes off a 17-3 season that ended in their 40-22 loss against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Deciding to pay for a professional football coach did wonders for the Chargers last season as they upped their win total by six victories — and their 11-6 regular season record got them into the playoffs. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s immediate change of culture with an approach that emphasizes winning the battle at the line of scrimmage while running the ball and limiting mistakes was effective. While the Chargers got outgained by -0.2 net Yards-Per-Game, they still outscored their opponents by +5.9 Points-Per-Game. While the media lionizes most of the head coaches in the NFL, it is amazing how successful Bill Belichick’s old “wait for the other guy to start making mistakes” philosophy still works. With Najee Harris signed in free agency and Omarion Hampton drafted from North Carolin in the first round, the running back room is improved. Herbert’s targets in the passing game are better with the additions of rookie Tre Harris (who led the FBS with 128.8 passing Yards-Per-Game at Ole Miss) and tight end Tyler Conklin, along with the return of veteran wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They join second-year breakout star Ladd McConkey, along with the former first-round pick Quentin Johnson, in the receiving corps. Herbert needed more reliable targets in the end zone after the team only had 13 touchdown passes inside the red zone last year. On the other side of the ball, it will probably be too much to ask for the Chargers to once again lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to 17.7 PPG. That was almost a touchdown better than the 23.4 PPG they surrendered the previous season. The plexiglass principle is sound in that dramatic improvements in one area tend to regress a bit the following season. However, there was a qualitative difference with the defense last year, with the defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying the Michigan/Baltimore Ravens’ innovative scheme that emphasizes deceptive post-snap adjustments and positional flexibility. Strong safety Derwin James Jr. thrived with this opportunity to demonstrate his flexibility. Harbaugh’s run-first philosophy that emphasized protecting the football certainly helped as well. The unit is now replacing defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox, linebacker Joey Bosa, and cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. It’s not too difficult to put a positive spin on those chances. Bosa is getting old and struggles to stay on the field. Samuel remained unsigned heading into the fall training camps. The players may not have been the best fits for Minter’s scheme, which requires players to have multiple skill sets. There appear to be rising stars at defensive end with third-year-pro Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley complementing proven veterans Khalil Mack and James. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, including all five of those games played on the road. I backed Kansas City in the Super Bowl last February — so I sure got that one wrong. They entered that game with a 12-0 record in games decided by one-scoring possession, so perhaps they were living on borrowed time. The Chiefs certainly got exposed by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The problems at tackle on the offensive line were evident all season — for several years, in fact, since not re-signing left tackle Orlando Brown — yet the Chiefs kept on winning two Super Bowls in a row and then 17 of their first 19 games last year. Not only did the Eagles' rotation of pass rushers make Mahomes look silly, but the Philly offense carved up the interior of the Kansas City defensive line. Reid and general manager Brett Veach attacked the offensive line problem in the offseason. They signed left tackle Jaylon Moore from San Francisco, who has spent the past few seasons serving as the understudy to future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. He has not been a full-time starter in the league, but he brings promise after being responsible for only five sacks in 446 dropbacks. Veach then drafted Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons, at the end of the first round. If not for a season-ending knee injury in October, he might have been one of the first ten players selected in the draft. But the offensive line did lose All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who signed a big contract with Chicago. The plan is for last year’s second-round pick, Kingsley Suamataia, to move to left guard after struggling at left tackle last year. Until proven otherwise, I suspect the new offensive line will be a work in progress — and that will hold the offense back from rediscovering the explosiveness in their passing game. They did not score 30 or more points even once in the regular season — wide receiver Rashee Rice begins serving his six-game suspension, leaving Mahomes' list of targets once again less than full strength. Kansas City’s defense ranked 28th in the league in Opponent Power Run Success Rate Allowed. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road against fellow AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: In Harbaugh’s head coach tenure with San Francisco and then Los Angeles last season, he has his teams ready to play early in the season. Harbaugh’s NFL teams have covered the point spread in 25 of their 35 games in the first half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games in the first two weeks of the season. 10* NFL Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (453) and the Los Angeles Chargers (454). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) comes off a 17-3 season that ended in their 40-22 loss against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Los Angeles (0-0) was 11-7 in their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh after losing by a 33-12 score at Houston in the AFC wildcard round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City’s offense was certainly exposed by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The problems at tackle on the offensive line were evident all season — for several years, in fact, since not re-signing left tackle Orlando Brown — yet the Chiefs kept on winning two Super Bowls in a row and then 17 of their first 19 games last year. Not only did the Eagles' rotation of pass rushers make Patrick Mahomes look silly, but the Philly offense carved up the interior of the Kansas City defensive line. Head coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach attacked the offensive line problem in the offseason. They signed left tackle Jaylon Moore from San Francisco, who has spent the past few seasons serving as the understudy to future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. Veach then drafted Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons at the end of the first round. But the offensive line did lose All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who signed a big contract with Chicago. The plan is for last year’s second-round pick, Kingsley Suamataia, to move to left guard after struggling at left tackle last year. Until proven otherwise, I suspect the new offensive line will be a work in progress — and that will hold the offense back from rediscovering the explosiveness in their passing game. They did not score 30 or more points even once in the regular season — wide receiver Rashee Rice begins serving his six-game suspension, leaving Mahomes' list of targets once again less than full strength. On the other side of the ball, Veach added defensive tackle Jerry Tillery from Minnesota and then drafted defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott from Tennessee in the second round to bolster their run defense, which the Eagles pounded them on. Kansas City surrendered only 320.6 total Yards-Per-Game last season which resulted in 19.2 Points-Per-Game, ranking ninth and fourth in the league. The Chiefs have 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Deciding to pay for a professional football coach did wonders for the Chargers last season as they upped their win total by six victories — and their 11-6 regular season record got them into the playoffs. But Los Angeles got exposed in the playoffs in a 32-12 loss at Houston. It was the eighth time that they failed to score more than 17 points. The 110.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game they averaged were the lowest total for a Harbaugh-coached team at the collegiate or NFL level — and the season-ending injury to left tackle Rashawn Slater early in training camp does not help that cause. The interior of the line remains a question. It will probably be too much to ask for the Chargers to once again lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to 17.7 PPG — but they should still have a good defense. The plexiglass principle indicates that dramatic improvements in one area tend to regress a bit in the following season. Using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders, Los Angeles ranked 21st in Defensive DVOA in 2022-23 and 26th in ’23-24 before improving to ninth last season. However, there was a qualitative difference with the defense last year, with the defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying the Michigan/Baltimore Ravens’ innovative scheme that emphasizes deceptive post-snap adjustments and positional flexibility. Strong safety Derwin James Jr. thrived with this opportunity to demonstrate his flexibility. Harbaugh’s run-first philosophy that emphasized protecting the football certainly helped as well. The unit is now replacing defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox, linebacker Joey Bosa, and cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. It’s not too difficult to put a positive spin on those chances. Bosa is getting old and struggles to stay on the field. Samuel remained unsigned heading into the fall training camps. The players may not have been the best fits for Minter’s scheme, which requires players to have multiple skill sets. There appear to be rising stars at defensive end with third-year pro Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley complementing proven veterans Khalil Mack and James. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season - and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Chargers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. This game is being played on a neutral field that has slick grass appropriate for soccer. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and Kansas City has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total on grass, including eight of those 11 games played on the road. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (453) and the Los Angeles Chargers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes off a 7-10 season last year. Philadelphia (0-0) returns to the field as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 40-22 victory against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: From their 82-year-old owner/President/General Manager to the seemingly hours of daily coverage in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex, the Cowboys have devolved into a franchise that is high on its own supply. Winning games seems to be besides the point, a worthy pursuit only if it will generate more clicks somewhere. But this has become such a conventional wisdom talking point that relying on this argument is assessing the point spread in most likely counter-productive. The seemingly near-unanimous opinion that Dallas just got crushed in the Micah Parsons trade only confounds this perception. Quarterback Dan Prescott experienced another season spending significant time on the shelf due to an injury. But when he is healthy, the Cowboys are a competitive team, as evidenced by their 36-15 record in the previous three seasons before last year. The hope then is that Prescott stays healthy and regains his form from 2023 — and that the offense will be reignited with the acquisition of wide receiver George Pickens from Pittsburgh. Talent is not the question with Pickens — but he was a malcontent with the Steelers. And the individual deputized to keep Pickens in line is first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who is going to modernize the offense with pre-snap motions and play-action passing that previous head coach Mike McCarthy eschewed. The players were strong advocates for Schottenheimer to replace McCarthy as head coach. Now they have to put their money where they were mouths were by playing hard for him. Favorites in the opening game of the NFL season have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those last 10 games going to 2015. With Philadelphia being the public’s overwhelming side for this game, how they are being overrated (while the Cowboys are being discounted) is fairly apparent. The defense lost several contributors. Edge rushers Milton Williams and Josh Sweat were both lost in free agency — and they accounted for 4.5 of the six sacks of Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Cornerback Darius Slay was released in a salary cap move, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was traded away. Much is now being asked of nose tackle Jordan Davis, who is the remaining early draft pick from Georgia who has yet to blossom. Linebacker Nakobe Dean will miss much of the season after a torn patellar injury in the playoffs. Hurts has his fourth offensive coordinator in four years, with passing game coordinator Kevin Patullo taking over for Moore, who took the head coaching job in New Orleans. While Hurts posted the sixth-lowest interception rate in the league, his 3.6% turnover-worthy throw rate was 23rd and very close to the 3.7% turnover-worthy throw rate the previous year when he tossed 15 interceptions. Patullo is a Sirianni guy — and his promotion may result in returning to some of the principles that Moore successfully moved away from (like not using motion as much or relying on RPOs as the main mesh between the rushing and passing schemes). It was just two years ago that Sirianni led this team to the Super Bowl for the first time in his tenure. When he promoted from within by choosing Brian Johnson as their next offensive coordinator, the Eagles lost six of their last seven games, leading to that debacle against the Buccaneers. One wonders if this team wins because of Sirianni in the CEO head coaching role — or in spite of him?

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow NFC East rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes off a 7-10 season last year. Philadelphia (0-0) returns to the field as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 40-22 victory against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After winning the Super Bowl by beating their last two opponents by 50 combined points, it is safe to say that general manager Howie Roseman pushed the right buttons. He was responsible for the two most important moves last offseason. The first was signing Saquon Barkley as a free agent. Behind an elite offensive line, the running back led the league by averaging 3.0 yards before contact en route to his 2005 rushing yards in the regular season. In the postseason, he averaged 125 rushing Yards-Per-Game. More importantly, his ability to generate big plays even against stacked boxes allowed the offense to ask less of quarterback Jalen Hurts. In my deep dive last year, I voiced concern about Hurts’ career-high 15 interceptions, with opposing defenses too often goading him into bad decisions in the passing game against stacked boxes. With Barkley, Philly could still stick with the run against stacked boxes — he averaged 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against stacked boxes, with that number rising to an 8.1 YPC clip in the fourth quarter. The Eagles averaged a league-low 26.3 pass attempts per game. But Hurts only threw five interceptions all season. After struggling against the blitz the previous year, Hurts was more effective when facing additional rushers last season — and he did not throw an interception against the blitz after tossing seven picks against additional rushers two years ago. He also thrived in the passing game against single safety coverage that stacked the box to slow Barkley down. Philadelphia scored 27.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season, ranking seventh in the league, before amping that up to 36.3 PPG in their four playoff games. Yet their defense may take a step back after losing several contributors. Edge rushers Milton Williams and Josh Sweat were both lost in free agency — and they accounted for 4.5 of the six sacks of Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Cornerback Darius Slay was released in a salary cap move, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was traded away. Much is now being asked of nose tackle Jordan Davis, who is the remaining early draft pick from Georgia who has yet to blossom. Linebacker Nakobe Dean will miss much of the season after a torn patellar injury in the playoffs. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games against fellow NFC East rivals/ Dallas quarterback Dan Prescott experienced another season, spending significant time on the shelf due to an injury. The hope is that Prescott stays healthy and regains his form from 2023 — and that the offense will be reignited with the acquisition of wide receiver George Pickens from Pittsburgh. Talent is not the question with Pickens — but he was a malcontent with the Steelers. And the individual deputized to keep Pickens in line is first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who is going to modernize the offense with pre-snap motions and play-action passing that previous head coach Mike McCarthy eschewed. The players were strong advocates for Schottenheimer to replace McCarthy as head coach. Their defense will not be better after trading away pass rusher Micah Parsons. But the Cowboys' defense was not very good, even with Parsons. They surrendered 355.2 Yards-Per-Game last season, which resulted in 27.5 PPG, ranking 28th and 31st in the NFL last year. Now they are on their third defensive coordinator in the last three seasons, with Matt Eberflus taking over calling plays for that unit. Without Parsons, Dallas will not rank third in the league with 52 sacks as it did last year. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 10 games played on grass, Dallas has played 8 of those games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NFC rivals — and the Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total against NFC opponents. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). THE SITUATION: TCU (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that culminated in their 34-3 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Mexico Bowl. North Carolina (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to UConn in the Fenway Bowl by a 27-14 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU started the season 3-3 last year — but they won six of their final seven games, culminating in a dominant 34-3 victory against UL-Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. The defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos continued to improve. In their last seven games, they held their opponents to 19 Points-Per-Game with four of those opponents failing to score more than 13 points. Six starters and 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return from that side of the ball. The offense has four starters back, headlined by quarterback Josh Hoover. The junior passed for 3949 yards with 27 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Fourth-year head coach Sonny Dykes is recruiting well, three years removed from reaching the national championship game in his first year with the program. His faith in the roster he has constructed compelled him to only bring in ten players from the transfer portal, but two of those players were added to fortify the wide receiver room for Hoover. This is a stable group — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points under Dykes. North Carolina hit the reset button. I have little doubt that if Bill Belichick wanted to develop an elite college football program at the University of North Carolina, he could do it. As the son of two parents who were college professors, he is a football lifer who considers himself first and foremost a teacher. He has forgotten more about teaching (and football) than these loudmouth critics in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex have ever known about this or any other subject. But how serious is he about the responsibility of this job? I initially thought this was an easy answer. But when I conducted my deep-dive on this team in mid-July, it was just after Belichick felt the need to rebut on ESPN mostly innocent comments made by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Maybe the year off from coaching last year changed the priorities of this 73-year-old in the twilight of his life, with nothing to prove regarding coaching? He became a media star on multiple platforms. He has a 24-year-old girlfriend. He has empowered her to become his social media agent. All the drama … it is definitely not the “Patriots way” blueprint. And the “No Days Off” mantra may still apply — just not for football. I’m sure when it is time to work on football, he is putting in 100% effort. But is the fire in the belly still there? Because if the idea was to go from NFL star to media star, one probably could not find a better group of marks than the administration at North Carolina. They gave the bag to Mack Brown at 68 years old to leave his cushy job occasionally talking about football on ESPN to return as their head coach six years ago. Brown was able to sell his “CEO” style for six years of utter mediocrity, where the Tar Heels always qualified for a bowl game, yet never won more than nine games. This football team has not enjoyed a ten-win season since 2015. If a cynic wanted to argue that, at 73 years old, Belichick is content to simply get paid and go through the motions now while promoting his Q rating, the evidence supporting this is growing. His new coaching staff remains a blend of nepotism or “Yes Men” (best exemplified by former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who Belichick promoted to be his offensive coordinator even though Brown did not ever elevate him higher than the tight ends coach and run game coordinator). More red flags continue to emerge. The high school recruiting front has been meager, despite new general manager Michael Lombardo boasting about their establishment of an advanced pro-level scouting program that implements NIL better than their peers. And then perhaps the biggest tell: nearly two dozen players left the program after spring practice. Maybe old school tactics like not assigning jersey numbers until the player “earned it” was simply following the advice of his parents, who knew that it is much easier to loosen restrictions as a teacher than attempt to get stricter after initial expectations are established. But the defense lost two of their best defensive players with defensive end Beau Atkinson and linebacker Amare Campbell transferring to Ohio State and Penn State, respectively, who were both very happy to assign these players a jersey with a number. Perhaps that is the inevitable attrition still playing out in establishing a winning culture. It certainly was not there under Brown. Belichick knows defense and can teach it. They have been very active in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Belichick added eight new transfers on the offensive line that are big with lots of starting experience (and two All-Conference awardees). Belichick brought in an intriguing talent at quarterback after spring practice with Gio Lopez from South Alabama. The sophomore dual-threat QB passes for 2559 yards and rushed for 547 non-sack rushing yards while accounting for 25 touchdowns. But the skill position players on offense are mostly unproven in a bad look that looks suspiciously like his final teams with the Patriots. Many things have to go right to immediately build a winning team from the transfer portal. Chemistry, cohesion, culture — these are never guaranteed, even if the head coach is a future NFL Hall of Famer. Maybe Belichick already knows that — and his girlfriend has the perfect meme to post about it?

FINAL TAKE: Taking a step back from the Belichick analysis, teams with almost entirely new coaching staffs and only six returning starters from last year tend to struggle out of the gate. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread at home in 7 straight games — so Kenan Stadium has not offered much advantage lately. 10* CFB TCU-North Carolina ESPN Special with the TCU Horned Frogs (233) minus the points versus North Carolina (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns to action after their 14-2 season that culminated in their 24-23 loss against Ohio State in the national championship game. Miami (FL) (0-0) comes off a 10-3 season that ended in a 42-411 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Head coach Marcus Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but he is likely turning to redshirt freshman C.J. Carr to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield of juniors Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. Perhaps the bigger loss was defensive coordinator Al Golden, who replaced Lou Anarumo as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Freeman turned to Chris Ash to run his defense, who has a similar profile as Golden as a defensive coach with NFL experience, with a turn as a head coach in college. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.” They should outclass Miami (FL). The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. And in their last 8 games on the road, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those contests. As some things change with the Hurricanes, other things frustratingly remain the same under head coach Mario Cristobal. In his fourth year with the program, he is doing a good job bringing talent into the program from both recruiting high school players and being aggressive in the transfer portal. But blown leads and game management remain significant problems. Two years ago, in their 7-6 campaign, in their four losses decided by seven points, the Miami (FL) blew a second-half lead in each contest. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech that season was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. The Hurricanes opened up last season by going 9-0. Then Miami lost on the road against Georgia Tech. At 10-1 and a berth in the ACC championship game on the line, they blew a 21-point lead at Syracuse in an upset loss that cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. Cristobal made another controversial decision with under four minutes left in the game, trailing by seven points, to take the ball out of quarterback Cam Ward’s hand and settle for a field goal on fourth down at the 10-yard line. While the odds of success in executing a fourth-and-10 are not high, were they much worse than the chances of the Miami defense stopping the Orange’s offense, which had scored touchdowns on four of their previous five possessions to take the lead? Besides, failing on fourth down requires the defense to step up as much as cutting the deficit to four points with the field goal, albeit with Syracuse pinned back deep on their side of the field. The Hurricanes then blew another lead in a 42-41 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl (although Ward did not play in the second half of that game). Ward is gone to the NFL after leading a Miami offense that led the nation in scoring and total offense. Cristobal looked to the transfer portal as well to bring in Georgia quarterback Carson Beck for his final season. Beck bypassed the NFL to take what has been reported as a $4.2 million NIL deal — but he was not getting drafted before Day Three, so he is making more money this year by staying in school. South Beach was an attractive choice because his girlfriend played basketball for the Hurricanes —but the rumors are that the couple has since split up. Beck is also coming off elbow surgery on his throwing hand. With all this static, it is not given that he is a simple plug-and-play replacement for Ward. Decision-making was an issue last year as he threw 12 interceptions for Georgia. The wide receiver room lost their top five targets last season — it is a vastly more inexperienced room than the one Ward enjoyed. The defense continued to struggle against good teams as they surrendered 31 or more points six times. Cristobal turned to Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to run his defense after the Golden Gophers ranked fifth in the nation in total defense — but he is their third DC in four years. Four starters are back on that side of the ball — and Cristobal added nine more players in the transfer portal, including five in the defensive secondary. Miami finally won 10 games under Cristobal -- but with big questions at wide receiver and the secondary, the likely downgrade at the quarterback position after Ward's spectacular season, and the proclivity to find ways to blow leads, it is difficult to expect an improvement on last year's results. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog under Cristobal. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in the first half of the season in the Cristobal era.

FINAL TAKE: Heavy rain is expected at some point in this game — the latest weather report I saw calls for a heavy downpour around 9 PM ET. I think the inclement weather favors Notre Dame, which can rely on their running backs and great offensive line, along with their defense. The Hurricanes are an error-prone team — and the bad weather just adds to the chaos. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Miami (FL) ABC-TV Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (199) minus the point(s) versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (200). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (0-0) kicks off their season after an 8-5 season that ended in a 31-26 upset loss as a 4-point favorite against Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl. Fresno State (0-1) began their season last Saturday in a 31-7 loss at Kansas as a 13.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern has reached a bowl game in three straight seasons — and head coach Clay Helton believes this is his best team yet in his fourth year with the program. The Eagles have 13 starters back, led by quarterback J.C. French IV. The junior quarterback was efficient in operating the Air Raid offensive attack — he completed 65.6% of his passes for 2831 yards last year. Helton typically gets his team to play well out of the gates. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 13 of their 18 games in the first half of the season under his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in all six of their games in the first two weeks of the season. They also covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games on the road last year. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Fresno State struggled on offense last week as they only managed 216 yards of offense from just 13 first downs. They got outgained by -167 net yards. The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz, who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turn around the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers, including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. Frankly, Warner’s name recognition surpasses his productivity on the field. He only threw for 179 yards last week with two interceptions. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State does have a game under their belt — but, in practice, that is not helpful relative to point spread expectations when taking on a team that is making their season debut. The advantage of being able to scout the game tape may be more beneficial for teams like Georgia Southern in spots like this. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Georgia Southern Eagles (199) minus the point(s) versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (200). Best of luck for us —  Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (187) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (188). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns to action after winning the national championship with their 34-23 victory against Notre Dame last January in the title game. Texas (0-0) wants to avenge their 28-14 loss to the Buckeyes as a 6.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the college football playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Longhorns are many pundits' pick to win the national championship after getting so close the last two seasons in losses in the College Football Playoff semifinals to Washington two years ago and then to the Buckeyes in a contest that was much closer than the final score. Remember, Texas was about ready to punch it in for a late game-tying score before Jack Sawyer scooped up a fumble and returned it 99 yards for the touchdown in a game-defining moment. Fifth-year head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in the top high school class in the nation in 2025. Between his recruiting, his winning the transfer window by targeting specific talent to fill holes while retaining the vast majority of his roster, and the university’s strong commitment to its NIL program, Texas may be leading the way in how to thrive in the new competitive environment. And now they begin the Arch Manning era. Manning has dual-threat skills with mobility that is reminiscent of his grandfather, Archie, who had a long NFL career as the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. His accuracy on deep balls brings a new dynamic to the offense that was not available the last two seasons with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. It may be very possible that Manning under center unlocks new levels of Sarkisian’s offensive genius that were held back the last two seasons. The defense lost all three starters — but Sarkisian did identify this area of need by bringing in five transfers with starting experience for the defensive line room. Perhaps the biggest question mark is the line on the other side of the ball after losing four starters on the offensive line from last year. This will be a young group — but having established chemistry and synergy with Manning by taking the second team reps with him last season should pay dividends that are not yet fully appreciated by the pundits. Sarkisian consistently has his team play well early in the season — his teams in his head coaching career have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 games in the first two weeks of the season. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 6 season openers (winning all six of those games outright). They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games in the first half of the season. Texas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Buckeyes pushed all their chips in to win the National Championship last season with four stars on defense, bypassing the NFL to return for a final season. Once again, the roster is loaded with talent — but there are far more questions than answers regarding how this year’s team will fare against elite competition. With only eight starters from last year’s team back, new leaders will have to emerge to help manage adversity. The defense lost nine players to the NFL. Free safety Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the country — but the defensive line is the biggest question on that side of the ball, with depth at defensive tackle being a real concern. The offense lost senior quarterback Will Howard as well as running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL. Second-year freshman quarterback Julian Sayin most certainly has higher upside than Howard, but he is wet under the years. Led by the phenomenal sophomore Jeremiah Smith, the wide receiver room is loaded, but how quickly Sayin can take advantage of this group remains a question. The offensive line lost two starters to the NFL after being the weak link of this unit against their top competition (ask Michigan). Henderson and Judkins' innate talent out of the backfield helped neutralize this weakness in the playoffs, but Ohio State is starting over with their backfield now. What helped the Buckeyes rebound from the late-season loss to the Wolverines was their veteran coaching staff, with Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator and Jim Knowles running the defense to support all the criticism Ryan Day was receiving. Now Kelly is the OC for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Knowles defected to run the Penn State defense. Day reinstalled Brian Hartline as the offensive coordinator after being demoted back to just the tight ends coach last year. Hartline has been an assistant offensive coach here since 2017. I do like that Day is not going back to calling plays — outside of Andy Reid, all these offensive coaches are better served concentrating on running the entire team and avoiding the allure to also free-lance and call every offensive play. Deferring the play-calling to Kelly last year was prudent — and now giving those duties to Hartline is the best long-term move. But Hartline is a first-time play-caller. On the other side of the ball is now Matt Patricia. I don’t love what it says that Knowles did not want to stay with the program where he oversaw the best scoring defense and total defense in the nation. Patricia is undoubtedly a brilliant defensive mind. I even defended Bill Belichick’s decision to anoint him the offensive coordinator for New England by buying the argument that teachers teach. But Patricia has mostly been a complete failure when outside the purview of Belichick as his defensive coordinator. His time as the Detroit Lions’ head coach was a disaster, and after helping to orchestrate the ousting of defensive coordinator Sean Desai to take over the Philadelphia Eagles' defense two years ago, the result was the team hitting rock bottom in the playoffs against Tampa Bay. When the Eagles cut ties with Patricia last offseason, they went on to win the Super Bowl. I have serious reservations that Patricia can (a) nurture collegiate talent and (b) tailor his sophisticated schemes to the collegiate level. Day finally has a national title under his belt, but I am not sure he has the leadership skills to handle the challenges of two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Losing 14 players to the NFL draft is tough for any team to overcome. However, with the new expanded playoff system, Ohio State may be an intriguing team to reconsider once the postseason begins. Right now, the market may be living off the vapors of last year’s playoff. The Buckeyes tend to be a slow-starting team relative to expectations as well. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the opening two weeks of the season — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 opening games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: There is so much turnover with the Buckeyes — a new play-caller on offense, a new defensive coordinator who lacks recent collegiate coaching experience, and a freshman quarterback. Fourteen new starters. And in the back of their minds, they know they can lose a couple of games in the regular season before stepping up in the college football playoffs — as they did last year after an early loss against Oregon, before that devastating upset loss at home to Michigan. The Longhorns have been thinking about this revenge opportunity every day in practice. They have more stability at quarterback since Manning got into a handful of games last year — and their defense is probably the best unit on the field. 10* CFB Texas-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (187) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (158) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (157). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 campaign that ended in a five overtime loss against South Florida in the Hawai’i Bowl. Central Michigan (0-0) suffered their third straight losing season with a 4-8 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo did a fantastic job last replacing seven-year head coach Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. The Spartans had lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal. The former 15-year head coach at Navy proved he had more than one trick up his sleeve by abandoning the spread triple option rushing attack for a quick-passing Run-and-Shoot and Air Raid hybrid scheme. He found the right offensive coordinator in Chris Stutzmann who had been the passing game coordinator at Texas State. San Jose State generated 321.8 passing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking fifth in the FBS. This passing attack really took off when Walker Eget took over under center in the sixth game. The senior returns at quarterback with four other starters on offense having averaged 301 passing yards YPG in his seven starts. The defense returns 14 of the 22 players who got at least one start last season including seven players who had seven or more starts. The Spartans have registered seven-win seasons in three straight seasons for the first time since 1980-1982. Niumatalolo and this coaching staff deserve some benefit of the doubt that they can coach this group up. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored. After overseeing a 20-13 record in his first three seasons (including the shortened 2020 campaign), Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain just seemed to lose steam over the last few years. The Chippewas have a 13-23 record in the last three seasons after their 4-8 campaign last year — and that prompted McElwain to retire after six seasons. Injuries on offense did not help matters as they were down to their fourth quarterback at one point while losing their top five wide receivers to injury. In comes first-year head coach Matt Drinkall, who served as the offensive line coach at Army for the last six seasons. He was promoted to co-offensive coordinator in 2023 and enlisted to adapt the spread triple-option to a new blocking scheme after the NCAA implemented new cut-blocking rules — but his shift to a shotgun-styled attack failed, and he was demoted back to just the offensive line coach last year. How the offense will develop will be interesting, as Drinkall does not plan to go all-in on a nearly complete rushing attack like the one at Army. Former Iowa transfer Joe Labas was the initial starting quarterback last year but suffered a season-ending injury in the sixth game of the season. He completed 59% of his passes and is not very mobile — so he may not fit in Drinkall’s more comfortable schematic approaches. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. The Chippewas face challenging circumstances traveling out west for a night game on the West Coast since their body clocks will think it is 1:30 AM when this game kicks off. As it is, Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in five straight games on the road against non-conference opponents from a Group of Five conference. 8* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (158) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). THE SITUATION: Baylor (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season that ended with a 44-31 loss against LSU in the Texas Bowl. Auburn (0-0) looks to rebound from a 5-7 season where they did not play in a bowl game for the second time in the last three years.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Dave Aranda went into the offseason of the 2024 season on the hot seat — and the best decision he made was hiring California offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital, with the offense returning to the Air Raid but with up-tempo principles. The Bears lost four of their first six games before the offense really started to click — and they won their final six games of the regular season, with five of those victories being by double-digits. The offense generated 440.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 20th and tied for 19th in the nation — and they scored at least 31 points nine times. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over under center in their third game — and he thrived in Spavital’s system by completing 62% of his passes for 3071 yards with 28 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The offensive line improved dramatically along the way from previous seasons. Eight starters are back from that group, including Robertson — and Aranda was active in the transfer portal to bring in more talent for the wide receiver room. Aranda is considered a defensive guru from the great job he did as the defensive coordinator for LSU in their national championship run. His defense hit rock bottom two years ago, ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” last year was for Aranda to call the defensive plays this year while also coaching the linebackers. The Baylor defense took a few steps forward last season by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. Aranda replaced a few of the assistant coaches on that side of the ball. With eight players on defense with starting experience, including a couple of players added in the transfer portal, the expectation is that this group will take another step forward. Aranda usually gets his team to start the season well (despite last year’s slow start). The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games in the first month of the season under Aranda, including three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on turf. For the second-straight season, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. On offense, the question will be at quarterback, where Freeze brought in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. He should be an immediate upgrade over Payton Thorne, who I considered the weak link of this offense last season. Arnold’s mobility makes him a better fit for the RPO-heavy Freeze offense. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500. Losing running back Jarquez Hunter to the NFL will hurt — especially since the Auburn offense ranked 115th in Finishing Drives last season. The defense must replace seven starters from last year’s group that held their opponents to 21.3 PPG. This is the Tigers’ first opening game away from Jordan-Hare Stadium since 2019 — and it is their first opener played in a hostile environment since 2003 when they opened at USC. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games in the first month of the season since Freeze took over as their head coach including both of those games played on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home, with the Total set in the 52.5 to 63 point range, including six of those last nine contests. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (172) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (171). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (0-0) comes off a 5-7 season last year, missing a bowl game for the third straight season. Western Michigan (0-0) settled for a 6-7 record after losing to South Alabama in the Salute to Veterans Bowl by a 30-23 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Second-year head coach Jonathan Smith inherited a proud program that had hit rock bottom. Previous head coach Mel Tucker was fired after four seasons, amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished in 2023 4-8 while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that the 11-2 season in 2021, which led to Tucker getting a ten-year, $95 million contract, was the team’s only winning season in the previous five years and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. After Tucker got dismissed, 12 players entered the transfer portal in April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Tucker lived and died relying on the portal. But the problems Smith inherited go farther back than that. The “more with less” dogma of previous head coach Mark Dantonio grew stale less than a decade ago with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to developing elite talent -- particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense. Furthermore, their defenses took a step back from their peak seasons in the Dantonio era. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time. Smith is committed to patiently doing things the right way, as he previously did in building Oregon State into a contender. The Spartans did not get to a bowl game, but the quality of play was better in a 5-7 season. There are reasons for optimism. Despite the secondary losing nine players on the depth chart at one point — including three starters — the defense ranked 34th in the nation by giving up 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their opponents to -29 YPG below their season average. The unit ranked 32nd in run defense by giving up 125.1 rushing YPG. Those are Sparty’s best defensive numbers since 2019 — and with the excellent Joe Rossi as defensive coordinator, the defense should continue to improve. Five starters are back — and Smith was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding four outside linebackers and four cornerbacks. The offense needs to take a step (or two) forward after only scoring 19.3 PPG and generating 333.4 total YPG, ranking tied 123rd and 110th in the nation.  Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles was inconsistent in his first year as a starter. The former Oregon State transfer only completed 56% of his passes in his first five games, with five touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He did improve in the final seven games by completing 61% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and only three interceptions. As Smith tries to develop homegrown talent, he was aggressive in bringing in transfers to bolster that unit. Better play from that unit will help Chiles — and with their defense, the Spartans could start becoming a bit dangerous. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season. Smith’s teams have also covered the point spread in 15 of their 22 games at home when favored. Progress seems to be taking place for the Broncos’ head coach, Lance Taylor, in his third year with the program. But with a 6-7 record, Western Michigan did suffer their third-straight losing season — and a closer look at their victories does not offer positive context. After starting the season 1-3, the Broncos rattled off four wins in a row against the four bottom teams in the Mid-American Conference. They lost four of their final five games. In their six games against teams that ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, they had a 5-1 record. Is the talent improving for Western Michigan under Taylor’s leadership — or are they simply getting better at being bottom-feeders? The offense returns only four starters, but Taylor did bring in two transfers from the Big Ten to bolster the offensive line, along with former Michigan blue-chipper Colt Cabana at running back. The defense continues to live and die from the transfer portal, with only three starters back and plenty of new players coming in, although most are not from FBS programs. Taylor is also on his third defensive coordinator already, after Scott Power was tapped as the next defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Former Notre Dame analyst Chris O’Leary, who was the safeties coach for the Los Angeles Chargers last season, takes over running the defense. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games in the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home against the Broncos. 8* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Michigan State Spartans (172) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (151) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (152). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that culminated in a 20-15 victory against Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl. Cincinnati (0-0) lost their last five games of the season in a disappointing 5-7 campaign last year. This game is being played on a neutral field at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers finally got over the hump by becoming bowl eligible in a late November victory against Wisconsin — and after their victory in the Pinstripe Bowl, they secured their first winning season in nine years and their first bowl win since the Obama Administration in 2016. Now comes the high expectations of the third-year Matt Rhule bounce after he led both Temple and then Baylor to the conference championship games with 10-4 and 11-3 campaigns in his third year as the head coach at the programs. Getting the benefit of bowl practices will help — but the challenge to reach the Big Ten championship game is much steeper. The defense is a complete rebuild in the front seven, with the only returning starters being in the secondary — and that unit lost defensive coordinator Tony White and their defensive line coach to Florida State, where they will have the same responsibilities. Rhule promoted defensive backs coach John Butler to run the defense — he had nine years of NFL coaching experience after running the Penn State defense in 2013. After ranking in the top 18 in total defense the last two seasons, this unit may take a step back. On the other hand, this group was not as physical and aggressive last year as they were in 2023 — and Butler had the defense getting back some of their aggression in spring practice. The offense returns offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen for his first full season after he took over for the fired Marcus Satterfield after the ninth game. He drew up more quick passes with shorter routes to put freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola in a better position to succeed. The former five-star recruit was inconsistent last year and too often missed big throws — and the Cornhuskers scored more than 21 points only once in the four games when Holgorsen called plays. Rhule was more aggressive in the transfer portal by adding 18 players, which was ten more than the previous offseason. But this remains an offense that scored only 23.5 Points-Per-Game and generated 359.0 total Yards-Per-Game, ranking 103rd and 94th in the nation. There still may not be enough firepower at the skill positions to compete with the top-end teams in the loaded Big Ten. Is it telling that Nebraska lost four of their last six games? The Cornhuskers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Bearcats made the four-team college football playoff four seasons ago. A year later, Luke Fickell left the program to take the head coaching job at Wisconsin. In came Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield, who had great success at Appalachian State before mixed results in four seasons with the Cardinals. Satterfield is now on the hot seat after two straight losing seasons and an 8-16 combined record. What’s the problem? Was the move to the Big 12 a big ask for this previous Group of Five heavyweight? Fickell got out of Dodge after Cincinnati’s last season in the American Athletic Conference. Or is perhaps the problem Satterfield, who had similar issues — and plenty of excuses — in his tenure at Louisville? The Bearcats opened the season by winning five of seven games — but they lost their last five games and failed to make a bowl game. They only scored 19.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven contests. On the one hand, they did outgain their Big 12 opponents by +26 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-6 record in conference play. They only won one of their four games decided by seven points or less. But this is a team that is heavily dependent on the transfer portal. Losing these close games may be symptomatic of culture issues on the team — something Satterfield struggled with at Louisville. He added speed in the wide receiver room in the offseason after last year’s offense lacked explosiveness. The excuse for a defense that ranked 85th in the nation by surrendering 385.4 total Yards-Per-Game is that new defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt got started late after only getting hired in January. More transfers were trucked in during the offseason, especially in the secondary. Getting nose tackle Dontay Corleone back will make a big difference. “The Godfather” is a beast in the middle and registered 27 pressures last season and was named to the first team All-Big 12 team despite missing time due to injuries. This is Satterfield’s most talented team since arriving here — but the fundamental questions regarding his leadership abilities and this program’s ability to survive and thrive in the Big East remain unanswered. The quarterback play is also a question mark. Junior quarterback Brendan Sorsby had seven turnovers -- but he committed 13 turnover-worthy plays. He only registered one “Big-Time” throw in his last six contests. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: While both teams return their starting quarterback from last year, both these offenses struggled in finishing drives. The Cornhuskers ranked 114th in Finishing Drives last season, while the Bearcats ranked 118th in that metric. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (151) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (148) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (147). THE SITUATION: Akron (0-0) comes off a 4-8 campaign last season. Wyoming (0-0) finished 3-9 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of the Zips. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023, and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017, headlined by an upset win in overtime at home against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season, and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress — so games like this take on added meaning. The Zips did end the year winning three of their last five games while scoring 26 Points-Per-Game which was almost six PPG above their season average. Akron covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games at home as an underdog, including their season-ending upset victory against Toledo. In Moorhead’s 23 games in his head coaching career when his team was playing at home, his teams covered the point spread in 9 of those games. For Wyoming, expectations were high last season for first-year head coach Jay Sawvel, who was beginning a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams, while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. I was worried that the program may have peaked in 2023 after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Sawvel thought his group could contend for the Mountain West Conference championship. That defense returned 19 of the 22 in the two-deep, including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. There was hope Evan Svoboda, wearing #17, would evoke memories of Josh Allen with the junior quarterback holding a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He had shown flashes in a close contest against Texas and then in their bowl game. But Wyoming lost their first four games of the season, and the offense opened up employing more spread and up-tempo concepts, which was a complete flop by ranking just tied for 123rd in the nation by scoring just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The defense took a step back by surrendering 410.6 Yards-Per-Game, which was -52.8 net YPG more than in 2023 and ranked 103rd in the FBS. They also ranked 91st by giving up 28.3 PPG, which was -6.0 more PPG than the previous season. Only one starter returns on that side of the ball, with second-year defensive coordinator Aaron Bohl losing 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Sawvel attempted to add length and size by bringing in 13 transfers and another three junior college players — but only five of those players come from FBS programs. The plan on offense is to return to the conservative power rushing attack of previous Cowboys teams while giving the keys to the offense to redshirt sophomore Kaden Anderson, who started three games in a row late in the season before his year ended with a concussion. Wyoming typically starts slow — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the first month of the season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been a much better team when playing at home at War Memorial Stadium over the years — but they have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 8* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Akron Zips (148) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (0-0) comes off an 8-6 season that culminated in a 27-17 loss against James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. Sam Houston (0-0) finished 10-3 last year after a 31-26 victory against Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton has grown accustomed to massive roster turnover due to the transfer portal — he has led the Hilltoppers to four-straight seasons with eight or more victories. Western Kentucky has averaged 18 players lost a year to the transfer portal over the last four years; they have averaged 21 players brought in per year from the portal. For this season, Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal, including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. Helton reached into his bag of tricks by bringing in senior quarterback Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian, along with his offensive coordinator, Rick Bowie, this season. This formula was very successful for the Hilltoppers in 2021 when Helton brought in quarterback Bailey Zappe and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist. McIvor passed for more than 3800 yards last year with 30 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions — and he passed for 508 yards in a shootout 52-51 loss to Texas Tech. Helton’s teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers, who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. Helton should have his team ready to play this game — and having North Alabama on deck should help the cause. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler left Sam Houston to take the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherits five starters, including senior quarterback Hunter Watson, who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year. The defense presents a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday, who takes over after coaching the nickelbacks at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looks to be extremely vulnerable, even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quickly or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences are unlikely to continue. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Month with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (305) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (306). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (0-0) enjoyed their first double-digit win season in program history with their 11-3 mark last year that culminated in a 42-41 victory against Miami (FL) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Kansas State (0-0) comes off a 9-4 campaign that ended with a 44-41 victory against Rutgers in the Rate Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Early games are often the best times to back Iowa State with Matt Campbell as their head coach. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the first half of the season in Campbell’s tenure. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog. They return 12 starters from last year’s team, headlined by junior quarterback Rocco Becht, who passed for 3505 yards with 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. The defense has six starters back from a group that defensive coordinator Jon Heacock used 21 different starters for the season. Iowa State suffered through losing 12 of 13 games by one scoring possession from the middle of 2021 through early 2023 before now winning seven of their last nine games decided by eight points or less. Head coach Matt Campbell probably wants to credit this turnaround to more difficult spring practice sessions, where he emphasized putting his players into situations of adversity. Former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard may have won a national championship for Ohio State last season, but he was likely going to be benched if he stayed for his final collegiate season in Manhattan. Avery Johnson was ranked as the number three dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school. His athleticism pushes his ceiling of potential very high. He has a good arm and is speedy with his legs. Johnson threw for 2712 passing yards, added 605 rushing yards, and accounted for 32 overall touchdowns. But the junior needs to improve as a passer this season. He completed only 58% of his passes and threw 10 interceptions. Too often, it was feast or famine for the offense. In their nine victories, Kansas State scored 37.6 Points-Per-Game — but in their four losses, they managed only 15.8 PPG. Former Utah State and Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells takes over as the offensive coordinator after sharing those duties last year. As the team’s passing game coordinator, he is expected to open up the passing game a bit more. The offensive line should remain one of the strengths of this team under head coach Chris Kleinman in his seventh year with the program. He brought in four transfers from Power Four conferences to join two returning starters from last season — but cohesion on the offensive line could be an issue, especially in games played in August. The other side of the ball is the bigger question mark overall, with only five starters back. The Wildcats must replace two defensive backs, Jacob Parrish and Marques Sigle, who got drafted into the NFL — and they also lost their sack leader, Brendan Mott. But four of the six players who registered at least six sacks last year are back, and the secondary too often got burned last year. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road against fellow Big 12 rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 Farmageddons between these opponents. 10* CFB Iowa State-Kansas State ESPN Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (305) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.