02-09-25 |
Chiefs v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 22-40 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110) in the Super Bowl LIX. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (17-2) has won eight of their last nine games after their 32-29 victory against Buffalo as a 1-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game on January 26th. Philadelphia (17-3) has won five games in a row after their 55-23 win at home against Washington as a 6-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What did the four teams that reached the Conference Championship Games all have in common? Washington, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City were the top four teams in the NFL in fourth-down success rate as each of them converting on at least 70% of their fourth-down attempts. The Chiefs and the Eagles are not shy about going for it on fourth down — and I expect both head coaches to be very aggressive in this game. This aggressiveness should result in fewer punts with both offenses likely to generate points on each of their drives. However, the flip side of this equation is that the occasional failure to convert on fourth down could create short fields for their opponent. Philadelphia gained 459 yards of offense against the Commanders despite quarterback Jalen Hurts being less than 100 percent with the knee injury he suffered the previous week against Green Bay. I worried that his passes would sail high with his front left leg not completely stable. Instead, he completed 20 of 38 passes for 246 yards. With two weeks of rest and recovery, he should be closer to full health. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total after a victory by two or more touchdowns. They have played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC. In regards to Kansas City, we were on the Over in the AFC Championship Game. In that Report, I wrote: “Don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos.” Against the Bills, they scored a season-high 32 points with the offense as healthy as they have been all season. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And while the Eagles hold their opponents to 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are not allowing more than 5.7 YPA. Philadelphia is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Part of the dynamic in Kansas City’s 12-0 record in one-score games this season is they score just enough points to outlast their opponent. Against a healthy Eagles offense that scored 35 points against them in the Super Bowl two years ago, I suspect that head coach Andy Reid will conclude that it will take at least 30 points to win this game — and that will impact the game script (just like it did in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills). In Reid’s head coaching career in the playoffs when his team was the number one seed and facing a number two seed (like against Buffalo two weeks ago), 4 of those 5 playoff games finished Over the Total — including all three of those games with the Chiefs. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-26-25 |
Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48 | Top | 29-32 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-4) won for the fifth time in their last six games after their 27-25 upset victory at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (16-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 23-14 win against Houston as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think this is another playoff shootout between these two heavyweights where both quarterbacks will throwing haymakers and scoring touchdowns by the fourth quarter — and there is very good evidence that this kind of games go Over in conference championship games in my Final Take. This is the fourth playoff showdown between these two teams in the Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes saga — and the first three games saw 62, 78, and 51 combined points scored. These two teams did play on November 17th in the regular season with Buffalo winning by a 31-20 score. In head coach Andy Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, his teams have played 11 of their 16 opportunities to exact same-season revenge Over the Total. The Bills are going to get their points again. They are scoring 30.7 Points-Per-Game this season while reaching the 30-point threshold 13 times and the 27-point threshold 14 times. They have scored 28.3 PPG in the four playoff games with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. The Chiefs allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and the Bills have played 14 of their last 18 games away from home against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of their passes. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Overs away from home against teams winning 75% or more of their games. An underappreciated aspect of this game is that the Kansas City starters had 24 days off from their last meaningful regular season game to last week’s playoff game with the Texans — and that is a ton of time for Reid to prepare his playoff game plans. The Chiefs did not yet have wide receiver Hollywood Brown back from injury in the first meeting between these teams. They gained 5.0 Yards-Per-Play in that game while surrendering 5.2 YPP to the Bills — but the difference was Buffalo had 72 plays from scrimmage while KC only had 52 plays from scrimmage. That ain’t happening again. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs’ offensive strategy is to unleash Mahomes in the passing attack like it’s the old Tyreek Hill days — and, at the very least, that produces a game script friendly to the Over. After dealing with injuries all season, this Kansas City offense has more skill position players at Mahomes’ disposal than at any time since Hill was not re-signed for the 2022-23 season. The Chiefs have won two straight Super Bowls because of their defense — but now they have rookie Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown added to the mix from last season to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Brown and Worthy are deep threats that open up the middle of the field. Kelce is peaking right now — and he’s got his girlfriend in the house against — in the last two games of importance (not including Week 18 against Denver), he has 19 targets with 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The move of left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle has stabilized the pass protection — but it has impacted the Chiefs’ inside rushing attack. Running back Isiah Pacheco generates 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry with Thuney at left guard — but at left tackle, Pacheco is only generating 2.8 YPC. Reid knows those numbers — and he knows that the Bills pass defense is vulnerable. Detroit passed for 473 yards against Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams passed for 320. Houston passed for 331 yards. The Ravens passed for 240 yards en route to the 416 yards they gained last week. The Bills have surrendered 31.7 PPG against the six playoff teams they have played this season. To compound matters, Buffalo free safety Taylor Rapp is out for this game — and cornerback Christian Benford is questionable since he needs to pass the concussion protocol before the game (I assume he plays — but, whoah, if he is out, too). Reid is going to attack this vulnerable and injured secondary. And don’t get spooked by Kansas City’s raw offensive numbers. Granted, they have not scored more than 30 points all season. But they have scored 30 points twice this season — and they have reached at least 26 points in nine of their games. That’s Over country. Remember, they won all but one of these games (the exception being the first meeting with the Bills) — before they rested starters in Week 18 in their shutout loss to the Broncos. If they needed to score more points in those games, they would have. The Chiefs have had three games at home this season with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. All three contests went Over: 27-20 versus Baltimore; 26-25 versus Cincinnati; 30-24 versus Tampa Bay. Those games seem similar to this one — albeit with Kansas City probably needing to score even more points to survive and advance.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these heavyweights are going down without a fight. Reid has played four games in his coaching career where his team was the number one seed playing the number two seed in a conference championship game — and the Over is 3-1 in those two games with a 2-0 mark with the Chiefs. The Bills have played 5 of their 8 playoff games Over the Total as a number two seed (never the top seed) under head coach Sean McDermott. Here’s the kicker: in the last 19 Conference Championship Games between the top two seeds, the Over is 13-5-1. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-26-25 |
Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 48 | | 23-55 |
Loss | -108 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (14-5) has won seven straight contests after their 45-31 upset win at Detroit as an 8-point underdog last Saturday. Philadelphia (16-3) has won four games in a row as well as 14 of their last 15 contests after their 28-22 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the postseason by following up their win at Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round with their second-straight upset win at Detroit. Head coach Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit for learning from some mistakes in his Super Bowl run as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. He has this team believing they can do anything. And rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is amazing. But it’s not as if this team was dominating their opponents before stunning the Lions. Before their win last week, Daniels passed for no more than 196 yards in four of those five games — so it’s not like he has been dominant statistically from week-to-week. They only scored 23 points in each of their previous two games against the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas. The Commanders offense was red hot last week against an injury-riddled Detroit defense — but perhaps facing a familiar opponent that has already played them twice in the last ten weeks is the worst-case scenario, especially with a rookie quarterback. As it is, Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games on the road after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Philadelphia has a big edge in this third meeting with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio matching wits with Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury deserves plenty of credit for helping to guide Daniels’ success. And he has made some adjustments in the second half that have paid dividends — such as (finally) using wide receiver Terry McLaurin in motion and designing some empty set formations for Daniels in designed running plays. But let’s just say Kingsbury can be slow in making these adjustments. I will note that Kingsbury benefited from the Thursday mini-bye after the first time these two teams play for Thursday Night Football on November 14th before their actual bye week took play in early December before the rematch. I question Kingsbury’s ability to make effective adjustments on the fly. Fangio is a veteran Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator — and he has the advantage of making the next move to Kingsbury’s adjustments. Fangio blitzed more in the rematch — and the Eagles' 42.4% pressure rate was the fourth-highest the Commanders endured all season. The weather is not doing Washington any favors with the cold temperatures not helping the Daniels’ passing attack (after playing a game indoors and in Tampa Bay the last two weeks). The loss of starting right guard Sam Cosmi complicates things for Kingsbury while giving Fangio more options to attack the Commanders' offensive line that tied for 25th in the league by giving up 55 sacks. Washington may have to double-team defensive tackle Jalen Carter even more after doubling in 53 snaps in the first two meetings — but that takes away a player elsewhere for them and creates more opportunities for Fangio to exploit. I suspect Fangio is going to away McLaurin in the passing game and bank on wide receiver Dyami Brown not being able to beat them down the field. Brown has caught 11 balls for 187 yards in the two playoff games — but cornerbacks Darius Slay and Quinton Mitchell are significant upgrades in talent he now faces. Fangio rarely spies mobile quarterbacks — but his zone scheme will keep Daniels' rushing threat into account. He is the architect of two-high safety shell concepts that (briefly) frustrated Patrick Mahomes in his first season without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Look for Fangio to dare Daniels to dink-and-dunk him to death — and not make a mistake in far-from-ideal conditions against a defense that has forced 11 turnovers in their last four games. Washington may still move the ball — but the drives will be long and burn time off the clock. The Commanders will likely play plenty of eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Saquon Barkley and force quarterback Jalen Hurts playing through injuries to beat them himself. The Eagles have only passed for 186 yards in their two playoff games -- and with wide receiver A.J. Brown seemingly in a rut as he battles through a knee injury, they may stick to just feeding Barkley the ball and hope he busts for a big game while attempting to wear down the Washington defensive front. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.
FINAL TAKE: Going back to his previous tenure as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Quinn’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Eagles have played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total in January including 5 of their 7 playoff games with Nick Sirianni as their head coach. 10* NFL Sunday Daily O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-19-25 |
Ravens v. Bills OVER 51 | | 25-27 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (393) and the Buffalo Bills (394). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-5) has won five games in a row after their 28-14 win against Pittsburgh as a 9.5-point favorite in their wildcard playoff game last Saturday. Buffalo (14-4) has won four of their last five games after their 31-7 win against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite in the wildcard playoff round last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills generated 471 yards of offense in their victory against the Broncos last week. Buffalo has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And in their last 11 games at home after scoring 30 or more points, they have played 8 of these games Over the Total. They have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total where they are scoring 33.9 Points-Per-Game this season. Against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or higher, the Bills are averaging 31.8 PPG — and that scoring average rises to 34.2 PPG if they are playing at home. Buffalo led the NFL by scoring at least 30 points in 13 games in the regular season. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They are generating 427.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 30.3 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and the Bills have played 4 of their last games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (393) and the Buffalo Bills (394). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-19-25 |
Rams v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | | 22-28 |
Loss | -103 | 0 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (391) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (392). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 27-9 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) has won three games in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 22-10 victory against Green Bay as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only gained 292 yards of offense last week despite the easy victory. Their pass rush sacked Sam Darnold nine times — and they held the Vikings to just 269 yards. Minnesota averaged a mere 3.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. In the last six weeks of the regular season, their defense ranked 11th in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. Snow is expected this afternoon — and that is not ideal for the veteran Matthew Stafford who played indoors for most of his games when playing with Detroit. But Stafford won’t mind the cold weather. In his 12 career games played in temperates no higher than 40 degrees, he has averaged 265.3 passing Yards-Per-Game from completing 63.1% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions — and he has a 96.6 Quarterback Rating in those games. The Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of their 19 games after a straight-up win. They stay on the road after playing last week’s game in Glendale, Arizona — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia only gained 290 yards last week in their win against the Packers. Jalen Hurts has been in a bit of a funk in the second half of the season in the passing game and he may still be recovering from a concussion. He has not been great in cold weather either. In his ten career games in temperatures under 40 degrees, Hurts is completing only 57.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and seven interceptions — and he averages only 127.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. In his three games this season with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees, he has averaged just 139.7 passing YPG. If the Philly game script is to abandon the pass, the Rams can cheat their strong safety into the box to help stop running back Saquon Barkley. The Eagles have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles on the first meeting between these two teams on November 24th by a 37-20 score as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road in rematch situations — and Philadelphia is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when it is a rematch. 10* NFL LA Rams-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (391) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (392). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-18-25 |
Commanders v. Lions OVER 55 | Top | 45-31 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-5) has won six games in a row after their 23-20 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (15-2) comes off the bye last week after ending their regular season with a 31-9 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on January 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams have high-powered offenses — and both these teams are aggressive on fourth downs. The high-risk/high-reward tactics of going for it on fourth down leads to more scoring either from extending drives or offering short fields to their opponent when the conversion attempt fails. The Commanders were three-of-five on fourth down last week against the Buccaneers — and it led to 14 points. For the season, Washington has converted 23 of their 28 (82%) fourth down attempts — and it has generated an additional 129 points for them. Having Jayden Daniels helps — and it is often on fourth downs when the threat he presents with his legs comes to fruition. The Commanders rank fourth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play. They have scored points on 50% of their possessions this season. They have scored at least 26 points in ten of their games. Washington has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Commanders' defense has played better lately as they rank in the top ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders in their last six games of the regular season. But they enjoyed a favorable schedule during that span against backup quarterbacks for Dallas (twice), New Orleans, and Tennessee, and a rookie quarterback for Atlanta. The only quarterback they faced during that span who was a Week One starter was Jalen Hurts — and Philadelphia scored 33 points against them. Washington has played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total when playing on short rest. Detroit has played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points. With head coach Dan Campbell proudly splitting kings at the blackjack table, the Lions rank second in the NFL in Fourth Down Conversion Rate. They also rank second in Third Down Conversion Rate and seventh in Red Zone Touchdown Rate with offensive coordinator and future head coach Ben Johnson calling the plays. Detroit ranks third in the league in Expected Points Added per play — and they have scored points on 51.6% of their possessions. They have scored at least 31 points in ten straight games — and they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games. However, the defense ranks in the bottom five in Defensive DVOA in the final six weeks of the regular season, and they ranked 30th in that metric over the final three weeks. Looking at Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed, they ranked 28th in that metric since Week 13. Against teams ranking in the top ten in Offensive DVOA, they surrendered 27.8 Points-Per-Game. Green Bay, Buffalo, and San Francisco scored 31, 48, and 34 points against them in games since December. And while the defense looked great against the Vikings, I think that speaks more to the state of the Minnesota offensive line along with Sam Darnold seeing ghosts again than it does about the quality of this defense. Opponents have completed 69.3% of their passes against them on first down — so I suspect that will be the game script for the Commanders to throw on first down which will lead to more passing and more stoppage of the clock. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against winning teams.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points including five of those six games this season. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (389) and the Detroit Lions (390). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-18-25 |
Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 42 | Top | 14-23 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Chargers to just 261 yards of offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and their last two opponents have only scored 26 combined points against them. Houston has an outstanding defense that is balanced. They rank sixth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and seventh in the league in Opponent EPA per pass attempt. Defensive end Willie Anderson has taken his game to the next level. In his last six contests, the second-year pro has five sacks, 12 hits on the quarterback, and six tackles for loss. The Texans rank third in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. But the Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Under head coach DeMeco Ryan, the Texans have played 12 of their 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. The Chiefs offense is likely to start this game sluggish after not playing a meaningful game since Christmas Day. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. Kansas City has played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in January.
FINAL TAKE: In Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, Kansas City has paled 33 of their 44 home games Under the Total when favored by at least seven points. The weather will not help the scoring with the temperature in the low-20s — and the wind is over 10 miles per hour. 25* NFL AFC Divisional Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-13-25 |
Vikings v. Rams OVER 47.5 | | 9-27 |
Loss | -108 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (397) and the Los Angeles Rams (398). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (14-3) picks themselves up from their 31-9 loss at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped after their 30-25 loss at home against Seattle as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. This game was moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, because of the fires in the greater Los Angeles area.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in four straight games struggling against the Lions last week. Crowd noise played a significant role in that game — I was very concerned about the communication between head coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback Sam Darnold being impaired in what was rabid crowd noise in Detroit last week. Crowd noise is rarely a problem for visiting teams to SoFi Stadium — and with this game now moving to State Farm Stadium in Arizona, the Vikings may have the crowd edge tonight. The Vikings have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played all 4 of their games against teams with a winning record Over the Total this season. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Vikings score 25.4 Points-Per-Game, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. With offensive lineman Rob Havenstein probable to play and quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams, and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all rested and ready after getting last week off, the Los Angeles offense is as healthy as it has been all season. The young defense had held three straight opponents to just 24 combined points before the Seahawks put up 30 points against them — but that may say more about the state of the San Francisco, New York Jets, and Arizona offenses that were all held to single digits by the Rams. Both Buffalo and Philadelphia scored 42 and 37 points against them since late November — so this unit is vulnerable.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in the regular season with the Rams winning at home by a 30-20 score as a 3-point underdog on October 24th. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (397) and the Los Angeles Rams (398). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-12-25 |
Commanders v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 23-20 |
Loss | -107 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). THE SITUATION: Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Don’t read too much into the Commanders' narrow win against the Cowboys where they only gained 269 yards of offense. Washington had nothing to play for in that game having already qualified for the postseason — and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did not play the entire game. The Commanders had scored at least 30 points in three of their four previous games. They are scoring 28.5 Points-Per-Game with the various metrics measuring offensive strength validating how good they are at putting up points. They rank sixth in Offensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank fourth in Expected Points Added per play. They rank sixth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They also rank in the top five in Points-Per-Drive — and lead the NFL by scoring 2.8 Points-Per-Possession when playing on the road. But Washington is also giving up 373.9 total Yards-Per-Game on the road which is resulting in 25.0 Points-Per-Game. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total as a dog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. They have played four straight Overs — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. Washington gives up 137.5 rushing YPG — and Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. The Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. And while Tampa Bay averages 250.4 passing YPG, Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are averaging 235 or more passing YPG. The Commanders generate 5.0 YPC themselves — and the Bucs have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC. Additionally, head coach Todd Bowles has seen this team play 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against a team with a better record.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Daniels is certainly more comfortable and confident over four months later after his professional debut. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (383) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-11-25 |
Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 14-28 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak after their 19-17 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (12-5) has won four games in a row after their 35-10 win against Cleveland as a 20-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens continued their defensive resurgence in the second half of the season by holding the Browns to just 230 total yards of offense. After struggling early defending the pass, head coach John Harbaugh brought back veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a special advisor to first-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That brain trust decided to move Kyle Hamilton to the free safety position during their bye week — and this tactical change has transformed their defense. Baltimore had the following defensive rankings through the first ten weeks of the regular season: 25th in Points-Per-Game allowed; 27th in Total Yards-Per-Game allowed; 32nd in Passing YPG allowed; 30th in opponent 3rd Down Rate allowed; tied-20th in opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage allowed; 26th in opponent Passer Rating allowed. Since Week 13, the Ravens' defense ranked number one in six of those categories. They have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held those last four opponents to 10.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional opponent. Now comes the postseason where quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past — and he admitted this week that he gets very amped up for these games which may be impacting his performances. And he faces a Steelers team that has done a good job of containing him over the year. In his regular season career, Jackson has completed 64.9% of his passes and averaged 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 102.0 Quarterback Rating. In the playoffs, Jackson’s QBR drops to a 75.7 mark with him completing only 57.4% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He has only six touchdown passes in his six playoff games — and he has been sacked 26 times. The corollary of Jackson’s great winning percentage against NFC opponents is that a very familiar opponent like Pittsburgh who plays against him at least twice a year defends him quite well. In his eight career starts against head coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, he has a QBR of 73.1 while completing only 58.0% of his passes and averaging 6.8 YPA. He averages only 160.5 passing YPG in his career against Pittsburgh with eight TD passes by nine interceptions — and he has been sacked 23 times. To compound the challenge for Jackson in this game, he will be without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers who averaged 14.3 Yards-Per-Reception for 1059 receiving yards this season. In his two games against Pittsburgh this season, he has thrown for 207 passing yards in each game but only completed 55.3% of his passes. Pittsburgh managed only 193 total yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The midseason decline of quarterback Russell Wilson is real, and it is spectacular. In his first seven starts since taking over for Justin Fields, he averaged 254.9 passing YPG by completing 64.8% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while posting a 103.9 Passer Rating. But during this four-game losing streak, he has averaged only 174.5 passing YPG and completed just 61.8% of his passes with four TD passes and two interceptions — and he has posted an 81.3 Passer Rating. Opposing defenses have caught up to his moon-ball or bust approach in the passing game. As I picked up in his tenure in Denver, Wilson has mastered stuffing his stats as best he can with these deep shots peppered with very few passes in the middle of the field — and he takes too many sacks. But as long as his interception numbers stay relatively low and his completion percentage is solid — at the expense of being a Check-Down Charlie — he remains relevant and in line to getting yet another overpriced contract. In his two starts against Baltimore this season, he has taken seven sacks. Wide receiver George Pickens seems checked out himself with only one catch and three bad drops last week. The Steelers are scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last four games while never scoring more than 17 points in those games. The three previous NFL teams entering the playoffs having not scored more than 17 points in four straight games once again did not eclipse 17 points in their playoff game. During their four-game losing streak, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in the league in both Expected Points Added per play and Expected Points Added per dropback in the passing game. Running back Najee Harris averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry in his two games against the Ravens this season. The Steelers have played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 5 of their 7 games under head coach John Harbaugh in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (377) and the Baltimore Ravens (378). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-05-25 |
Vikings v. Lions UNDER 57 | | 9-31 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (363) and the Detroit Lions (364). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (14-2) has won nine games in a row after their 27-25 victory at home against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (14-2) has won two games in a row after their 40-34 win at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total opened at 51 last Sunday, I was initially considering endorsing and investing in the Over for this showdown. But with the market betting the number up to the 56.5-point range, it’s just too high. I concluded that taking the contrarian route with the Under was more prudent. There are simply too many ways that a two-touchdown per-quarter pace can get derailed. One way is by turnovers that kill drives. Minnesota has forced 31 turnovers this season at a 1.9 Turnover-Per-Game rate. On the road, they are forcing 2.1 Turnovers-Per-Game. They have forced at least one turnover in every game this season. I also suspect that head coach Kevin O’Connell does not want to get into a shooting — so look for him to burn clock and keep the Lions offense off the field. The Vikings did generate 441 yards last week against the Packers — but they have played all 5 games under O’Connell Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. Detroit’s defense could not slow down Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offense last week — but they do get some help this week from their battered group with Alex Anzalone returning at linebacker from his injury. But what defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s group is doing well is forcing turnovers. They have forced two turnovers in their last two games after posting a +2 net turnover margin against the 49ers. The Lions have played 9 of their last 15 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions allowed 400 passing yards to Brock Purdy last week who averaged 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — but that helps trigger an empirical situational angle supporting the Under that has been 72% effective since 2020. In games with the Total set at 49.5, when the home team comes off a game where they allowed 8.0 or more Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, those games finished Under the Total in 44 of these last 61 situations. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (363) and the Detroit Lions (364). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-04-25 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 48.5 | | 19-17 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (355) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (356). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 30-24 win in overtime against Denver as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (10-6) has lost three straight games after their 29-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 1.5-point underdog on December 25th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has lost three straight games by 14 or more points while surrendering 30.0 Points-Per-Game during that stretch — but they have had a tough stretch of games against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and then the Chiefs last week. Head coach Mike Tomlin has had extra time to get his team rested and focused for this game. While winning the AFC North and taking the third seed in the AFC playoffs would require the minor miracle of Cleveland upsetting Baltimore this afternoon, beating the Bengals would set up a date next week in Houston against the Texans which is a far better first-round opponent than playing on the road against the Ravens. Cincinnati is generating 398.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but the Steelers held them to 375 yards in their 44-38 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on December 1st. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against familiar AFC opponents. The Bengals are scoring 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and the Steelers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. And while Cincinnati gives up 26.1 PPG, Pittsburgh has played 6 straight Unders against teams who give up 24 or more PPG. Additionally, the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. Cincinnati is still technically alive to make the playoffs — but they need lots of unlikely help besides winning this game. The Bengals would also need Kansas City playing backups to upset Denver along with the New York Jets to beat Miami tomorrow. That is an uphill battle. They have held their last four opponents to just 19.3 Points-Per-Game, those games were against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and then the Broncos. They rank 18th in Opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed in those last four games which does represent an improvement. Cincinnati has played 7 of their 11 games Under the Total in January in head coach Zac Taylor’s tenure.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are giving up 335.4 total YPG at home which is resulting in just 17.4 PPG. They have played 5 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. With the weather dropping to a low of 16 degrees tonight with winds at 15 miles per hour gusting to 29 MPH, the conditions will not help Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (355) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (356). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-04-25 |
Browns v. Ravens UNDER 41.5 | | 10-35 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 20 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (343) and the Baltimore Ravens (344). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-13) has lost five games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 20-3 loss to Miami as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (11-5) has won three games in a row after their 31-2 victory at Houston as a 6.5-point favorite back on December 25th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens need to win this game to clinch first place in the AFC North and the third seed in the AFC playoffs. They are now a ridiculous 20-point favorite — and a point spread I am highly reluctant to touch. But investing in the Under probably is a prudent way to capture how this game will go down. Baltimore should take a lead in this game — and once their lead is safe, head coach John Harbaugh will call off the proverbial dogs and bench his starters. At that point, both teams will probably just want to get this game completed as soon as possible and not risk injuries. Harbaugh has no interest in embarrassing his opponents — especially AFC North rivals who may use any slights to forge deals with the devil moving forward. The Ravens are not going to take this game lightly with the third seed on the line — and they have revenge on their mind to keep them sharp in practice this week after losing to the Browns by a 29-24 score as a 7.5-point favorite on October 27th. Baltimore should shut down the Cleveland offense this afternoon after holding their last three opponents to 11.0 Points-Per-Game. After a slow start to the season, Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for rookie defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. That helped. And after Joe Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 171.2 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 6.7 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s pass defense giving up 248.5 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. Moving forward, with Hamilton playing at free safety and Pees providing his insight on a weekly basis, this Ravens team may have one of the best defenses in the league — despite what the season-long statistics may suggest. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cleveland will start Bailey Zappe at quarterback this afternoon although Dorian Thompson-Robinson is expected to get some snaps. The Browns only gained 276 yards last week in their loss to the Dolphins. They have scored only 16 combined points in their last three games. The Cleveland defense will still be playing with pride in this game. Myles Garrett has registered six sacks, four more tackles for loss, and ten hits on the quarterback in his last four games against the Ravens. The Browns have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three in a row. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and in their last 12 games as an underdog, they have played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 16 of their 20 games Under the Total in January with Harbaugh as their head coach — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total in his tenure when playing on a Saturday. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (343) and the Baltimore Ravens (344). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-30-24 |
Lions v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 40-34 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). THE SITUATION: Detroit (13-2) rebounded from their loss to Buffalo with a 34-17 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (6-9) has lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 29-17 upset loss at Miami as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: When the Total is set at 50 or higher, there are many routes for the game to finish Under the Total. A few stalled red zone drives. Turnovers. Long drives that burns significant time off the clock. One particular dynamic for this game is the prospect that the Lions head coach Dan Campbell will ultimately decide to rest his key players on offense. I’ll get to that in the Final Take. After giving up 382 yards to the Bears last week, Detroit needs to use this game to find some answers and develop some momentum on defense — so I do not expect any let up on that side of the football. The Lions did enjoy +2 net turnover margin against Chicago — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while Detroit has played three straight Overs, they have then played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, they have played 7 of those games Under the Total. San Francisco has been playing better defense lately since the return of safety Talonoa Hufanga. They have held their last three opponents to just 281.7 total Yards-Per-Game since his return. The Niners rank fifth in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The 49ers can be run on — they ran 24th in Run Defense DVOA. I suspect that the Lions will run the ball to get backup running back Craig Reynolds plenty of reps because they will need to use him in the postseason to give Jahmyr Gibbs some help — and that should mean longer drives (which also gets Detroit out of this game faster). San Francisco has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 276.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 19.1 Points-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Lions are generating 6.4 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and San Francisco has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.65 or more YPP and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 7.0 or more YPA. The 49ers have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
FINAL TAKE: I could be wrong — but I just don’t think Campbell is going to keep Jared Goff and other essential offensive players on the field for the entire game. I know he claimed that he was going to use all his starters throughout this game even if a win would not help their playoff positioning. After Minnesota’s (infuriating) two-point victory against Green Bay (+1.5) yesterday, the Lions take the top seed in the NFC playoffs only by beating the Vikings on Sunday. If Hendan Hooker plays a significant amount of time at quarterback tonight with backups on offense, then the final score hitting 50 becomes very difficult. Even if Campbell defies all logic and reason and plays his offensive first-string all night, I think the game stays below 50 combined points — but after losing two +3.5 underdogs in overtime this weekend, I am in no mood to risk my money solely on the prospect that Dan Campbell will resist his machismo. On the other hand, if I endorsed and invested in the Over tonight — only to see Goff and company on the sidelines before the end of the first quarter, I would be apoplectic (especially after watching two favorites win games in overtime from touchdowns to cover -3.5 point spreads). The Regression Gods do even things out in the wash … sooner or later. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (411) and the San Francisco 49ers (412). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-29-24 |
Falcons v. Commanders UNDER 48 | | 24-30 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (413) and the Washington Commanders (414). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (8-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-7 victory against the New York Giants as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (10-5) has won three games in a row after their 36-33 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders held the explosive Eagles offense to just 338 yards last week despite Philly’s 33 points in that game. We were on the Under for that game which got crushed — but both teams averaged only 353 Yards-Per-Game in that contest. Washington held Philadelphia to just 5.08 Yards-Per-Play which was far below their 5.9 YPP season average. We observed last week that Washington’s defense continued to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They had held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders had since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards before their showdown with the Eagles. Their defense thrives at home where they went into last only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they have given up when playing on the road. The Commanders are banged-up on offense with starting right tackle Andrew Wylie and two of their top three wide receivers, Dyami Brown and Noah Brown, out for this game with injuries. Despite the spectacular plays from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, their offense has taken a step back lately as they rank only 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play since Week Ten. Washington had five turnovers last week and endured a -3 net turnover margin — and Quinn’s teams in his career have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win under head coach Raheem Morris. Under the radar, the Falcons defense is playing much better. Wince Week 13, Atlanta leads the league in Opponent EPA allowed — they rank fifth in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent EPA per dropback allowed. And while the Falcons’ strength of schedule can be scrutinized during that span, it does include holding Justin Herbert to just 187 yards of offense. Since Week 15, the Falcons are second in the NFL by limiting their opponents to 241.5 total YPG and 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their 8 games Under the Total as an underdog with Morris as their head coach. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Given the 14 MPH wind tonight in Washington, the passing game will be more difficult for both teams. The Falcons have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (413) and the Washington Commanders (414). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-28-24 |
Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 48.5 | | 9-13 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (415) and the Los Angeles Rams (416). THE SITUATION: Arizona (7-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 36-30 upset loss in overtime at Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-6) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles only gained 242 yards of offense last week with quarterback Matthew Stafford only attempting 19 passes in that game. The Rams are running the ball more to protect their young defense. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They return home after completing a two-game road trip — and they have played 11 of their 15 games under head coach Sean McVay Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when at home as the favorite. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on turf. Furthermore, the Cardinals have a 25-13-1 Under mark when on the road with quarterback Kyler Murray under center.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is motivated to avenge a 41-10 loss at Arizona in a pick ‘em contest back on September 15th — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 10* NFL Saturday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (415) and the Los Angeles Rams (416). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-26-24 |
Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | | 6-3 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (405) and the Chicago Bears (406). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-7) has lost two games in a row after their 27-24 loss at home against Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (4-11) has lost nine games in a row after their 34-17 loss at home against Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Seahawks’ defense last week as they held the Vikings to just 298 total yards. Quarterback Geno Smith threw two interceptions and is playing through an injury. While he has 15 interceptions this season, only two of those picks were in games on the road. His offensive line is not helping as much lately since he is getting sacked once in every 12 dropbacks in his last five games. For the season, they have the ninth-highest Adjusted Sack Rate so don’t be surprised if their drives stall out. This looks like a game where Zach Charbonnet will get plenty of touches in a safe game plan against an overmatched Bears team with nothing to play for after being eliminated from the playoff race. Chicago is giving up 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are giving up 7.0 or more YPA. The Seahawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on grass. They have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Chicago has only scored more than 20 points once since their Week Seven bye week — and they are scoring just 15 Points-Per-Game during that span. Since interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown was elevated to interim head coach, the Bears are generating only 276.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 14.0 PPG in their three games. Now Brown has to prepare his team under circumstances that would challenge even the most experienced and savviest head coach. Not good, Bob. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while Seattle averages 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Seahawks have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (405) and the Chicago Bears (406). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-25-24 |
Ravens v. Texans UNDER 47 | Top | 31-2 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four games after their 34-17 win against Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (9-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 loss at Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Steelers to just 315 yards of offense last week as they continue to play much better on the defensive side of the football. I was worried about Baltimore’s defense heading into the season because of the brain drain from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over defense — but the 32-year-old had never called plays. Their defense last year was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. Predictably, things started slow for the Ravens' defense especially when defending the pass. Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards against them in Week Three. Two weeks later, Joe Burrow tore them up for another 359 yards. That’s when the ever-savvy John Harbaugh brought back the forever-young Dean Pees out of retirement (something he has done several times in his career) to serve as a senior advisor on defense for Orr. That helped. And after Burrow torched them for another 421 passing yards in Week Ten, Pees’ fingerprints were probably all over the decision to move safety Kyle Hamilton from strong safety often playing inside the box against the run to free safety dedicating himself to pass coverage. Since then, Baltimore is only giving up 174.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt they are giving up is far below their season average of 7.0 YPA by their opponents against them. From Week One to Week Nine, the Ravens ranked 28th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed. Since then with Hamilton moving to free safety, they lead the NFL in that metric. So just citing Baltimore’s second-to-last pass defense giving up 259.4 passing YPG raw numbers does not capture what this unit is doing now. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win versus an AFC North rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after a victory against a divisional rival. Not surprisingly given Harbaugh’s penchant for making positive changes as the season moves on, Baltimore has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total in Weeks 16 and 17. Houston only managed 311 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Chiefs. Their offense is missing two key pieces with guard Shaq Mason out with an injury and wide receiver Tank Dell suffering his terrible season-ending leg injury that may end his career. But the Texans' defense should keep them competitive in this game as they lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston should keep Baltimore’s Derrick Henry in relative check. They rank second in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards Allowed — and they stuff opposing rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage 19% of the time. They held Detroit’s dynamic duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry from 31 attempts earlier this season — and De’Von Achane to just 3.4 YPC. The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record under head coach DeMeco Ryans.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that range. Lastly, the Texans have played straight home games Under the Total when the Total set is set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (403) and the Houston Texans (404). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-23-24 |
Saints v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | | 0-34 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (131) and the Green Bay Packers (132). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-19 loss against Washington as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (10-4) has won four of their last five games after their 30-13 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints were competitive with the Commanders last week despite only gaining 245 total yards in that game. But the New Orleans did a nice job of slowing down Washington phenom quarterback Jayden Daniels by holding the Commanders to just 326 yards of offense despite them being on the field for over 40 minutes of that game. The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. This is a team that has played 4 of their 5 games Under the Total since interim head coach Darren Rizzi took over for Dennis Allen. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. And in their last 11 games in December, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total. A dome team with a rookie at quarterback, Spencer Rattler, playing without running back Alvin Kamara and their top two wide receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheen) now playing outside in cold weather does not excite me. Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL in Opponent’s Expected Points Added per play Allowed this season. Since returning from their bye week, they rank in the top five in the league in both Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and by holding their opponents to just 3.42 Yards-Per-Carry. The Packers have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total after winning on the road in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a win by 14 or more points. Green Bay has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering four or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. Furthermore, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 18 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total when playing in prime-time — and they have played 15 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with extra rest of at least seven days between games. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with the Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (131) and the Green Bay Packers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-22-24 |
Lions v. Bears UNDER 47.5 | | 34-17 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 17 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-2) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 48-42 upset loss at home against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (4-10) has lost eight games in a row after their 30-12 loss at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago only managed 284 yards on Monday in their loss to the Vikings. Interim head coach Thomas Brown is simply over his head right now. Don’t blame him — he was the passing game coordinator earlier this season before becoming the interim offensive coordinator when Shane Waldron was fired. His main responsibility had been to work with rookie Caleb Williams to get him prepared each week. That is probably the most important job in the organization right now. Not only is he now running the offense, he has head coaching responsibilities — and this is simply not helping put Williams in the best position to succeed. The Bears have scored only 25 combined points in their last two games. They have scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. Chicago has played 4 straight Unders after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit needs to get back to a ball-control attack on offense given all their injuries on defense. The temperature will be in the 30s this afternoon at Soldier Field — and quarterback Jared Goff is not nearly as effective when playing in colder weather. In his career when playing in temperates no higher than 40 degrees, he is completing only 59.8% of his passes with an 83.5 Passer Rating. He averages only 236.9 passing Yards-Per-Game and just 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in that cold weather which are numbers far below his 261.0 passing YPG and 7.5 YPA career averages. The Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss at home. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Furthermore, they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when on the road as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: When these teams played on Thanksgiving, Detroit won at home by a 23-20 score. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-22-24 |
Eagles v. Commanders UNDER 47 | Top | 33-36 |
Loss | -109 | 1 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (12-2) has won ten games in a row after their 27-13 win against Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (9-5) has won two games in a row after their 20-19 victory at New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The stout Eagles defense held the Steelers to just 163 yards of offense last week. During their ten-game winning streak, Philadelphia has 14 takeaways and has held their opponents to just 15 Points-Per-Game. Since rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup for a base nickel defense, this unit has been outstanding. There usually is a learning curve when players first begin working for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but his concepts in his first year with the Eagles are beginning to gel — and he is unlocking the talents of the young players drafted from Georgia that had been underachieving a bit until now. After ranking tenth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders through Week 10, they have since risen to number one in that category. Philly lead the league by giving up only 172 passing Yards-Per-Game and they rank seventh in rushing defense by giving up 102.2 rushing YPG. They are one of just four defenses since 2010 to have not given up more than 2500 passing yards and 1500 rushing yards after Week 14. The Eagles have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a road favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Washington’s defense continues to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They have held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders have since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards. Their defense thrives at home where they are only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they given up when playing on the road. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes against the Saints but for only 226 yards which was the second most passing yards he has thrown for in the last six games. The narrative that the league catches up to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes in the second half of the season — and that he fails to adapt — continues to see evidence supporting it grow. When Daniels faced this Eagles defense for Thursday Night Football on November 14th, he only threw for 191 yards and generated just 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt which was his second-lowest mark in any game he finished this season. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Washington has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Furthermore, in Quinn’s head coaching career, his teams have played 6 of their 7 games Under the Total as a home dog — and his teams have played 11 of their 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles won the first meeting with the Commanders by a 26-18 score last month — and Washington has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Quinn’s teams have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Commanders (114). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-19-24 |
Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 42 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (9-5) has won four games in a row after their 31-13 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (8-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 40-17 upset loss at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers had averaged 27 Points-Per-Game during a five-game stretch until running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending torn MCL injury. Los Angeles has since scored only 17 points in each of their three games since losing him for the year. They generated only 206 yards of offense last week in their blowout loss to the Buccaneers. In his last four games, quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked once in every nine dropbacks — and he is now dealing with an ankle injury that is slowing him down. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Los Angeles should bounce back on defense after getting carved by Baker Mayfield in explosive plays. They are still only giving up 17.6 Points-Per-Game which is tied for the best mark in the league. They rank ninth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Los Angeles has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with six days or less between games. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Denver only gained 193 yards last week despite scoring 31 points. One of their touchdowns came from a 50-yard fumble recovery. Rookie Bo Nix only threw for 130 yards in that game — and he has five interceptions in his last two weeks after throwing three picks against the Colts. Now the Broncos' offense will be without running back Jaleel McLaughlin who is out with an injury — and head coach Sean Payton has been relying on him as his go-to back in crunch time lately. Much of the success of the offense this season against the bottom-tiered defenses in the league. In their five games against teams that rank in the top 13 in Defensive DVOA, they are only scoring 13.2 PPG. Their offensive numbers are propped up by scoring 30 PPG in their other nine games against the bottom 19 teams in Defensive DVOA. Denver’s defense has been outstanding this season as they lead the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. They have given up the fewest explosive plays this season — and their 14.8% stuff rate of opposing rushing attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage is the fifth-best mark in the league. The Broncos are surrendering only 17.6 PPG — and Harbaugh-coached NFL teams have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 19.0 PPG. Denver has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, in Payton’s head coaching career, his teams have played 13 of their 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 5 straight games at home against divisional rivals. They have played 12 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against division opponents when favored. These two teams have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-16-24 |
Bears v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) has lost seven games in a row after their 38-13 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (11-2) has won six games in a row after their 42-21 win against Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears gained only 162 yards of offense last week against the 49ers’ defense. Interim head coach Thomas Brown simply has too much on his plate after first being elevated to be the interim offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron before taking over the head coaching duties when Matt Eberflus was sacked. His primary responsibility should be to prepare his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams since he is the future of the franchise. Chicago has scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games. On the road, they are generating only 283.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Williams averages only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt when on the road which ranks 30th in the league. The Vikings rank in the top-ten in deploying zone defenses against pass under defensive coordinator Brian Flores — and Williams ranks 30th in Passer Rating when facing zone defenses. Williams is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this season after getting sacked seven times last week — and now this offensive line has to try to protect him against a Minnesota defense that blitzes almost half the time in passing situations. To compound matters, center Ryan Bates and running back Roschon Johnson are out tonight with injuries — and running back D’Andre Swift is questionable. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road against divisional rivals. Minnesota is only allowing 18.5 PPG — and their defense ranks number one according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the Vikings rushing attack only ranks 24th in Expected Points Added per play — and their offensive line has taken a step back since Cam Robinson replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 34 games played in Prime-Time, they have played 22 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams with a 30-27 victory in Chicago as a 3-point favorite on November 24th. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-15-24 |
Packers v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 30-13 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th. Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Seattle enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Packers average 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams generating 7.0 or more YPA. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Geno Smith has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road. Smith is completing 71.5% of his passes with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions on the road with a 96.9 Passer Rating — but when at home, he is completing 67.8% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and ten interceptions with an 84.5 Passer Rating. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-12-24 |
Rams v. 49ers OVER 48 | Top | 12-6 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. Los Angeles finally has a healthy offensive line to give quarterback Matthew Stafford more time to find wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since Week Eight, the Rams ranks third in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play after ranking in the bottom half of the league before that with their wide receiver room not at full strength. They are scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven games and have scored at least 26 points in four of those games. But Los Angeles is also giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. They have seen 51.7 combined points scored on average in their last seven games — and they have seen 57 combined points scored on average in their last four contests. In a game between two teams desperate for the victory tonight, both teams should score (at least) in the 20s and playing with scoring urgency in the fourth quarter. The Rams' defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when not playing with extended rest — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total when not playing with extended rest. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. But the 49ers defense has struggled lately by allowing 35 and 38 points before holding the Bears to 13 points. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable to play with a hip and oblique injury. San Francisco has played five games against teams who rank in the top in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are allowing 30.4 PPG against those five opponents with each of those teams scoring at least 24 points. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a home favorite of up to seven points. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC West rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in December — and the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-09-24 |
Bengals v. Cowboys OVER 49.5 | | 27-20 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (143) and the Dallas Cowboys (144). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-8) has lost three games in a row after their 44-38 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (5-7) has won two games in a row after their 27-20 loss against the New York Giants as a 4-point favorite back on Thanksgiving to start Week 13.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is hard to not expect the Bengals to continue to get into high-scoring game shootouts. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have scored at least 27 points in their last four games during a stretch where they have averaged 35.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have surrendered at least 34 points in five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. If the Bengals had simply split their eight games decided by one scoring possession, they would be in the heart of the AFC playoff race with a 7-5 record and Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. He has thrown 30 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. In his last four games, he has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions while averaging 336 passing Yards-Per-Game. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the league in Opponents Expected Points Added per play. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns in 30 of the 39 trips by their opponents into the Red Zone. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in Red Zone Touchdown Rate and fifth in Third Down Conversion Rate — so look for Cincinnati’s drives to not have to settle for field goals. Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves to blitz — and they lead the NFL in pressure rate. If they don’t send extra rushers, they get carved up as opposing quarterbacks lead the league in Yards-Per-Attempt against them in those circumstances. But here comes Burrow who punishes teams that blitz. While Burrow has a 107 Passer Rating when throwing in a clean pocket, that mark rises to a 108 Passer Rating when he is under pressure while ranking fourth in the NFL in YPA in those situations. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. The Bengals go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC. Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 net turnover margin. The Cowboys have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total including five of their last six games finished Over the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (143) and the Dallas Cowboys (144). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-08-24 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 43 | | 17-19 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (141) and the Kansas City Chiefs (142). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won five of their last six games after their 17-13 upset victory at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (11-1) has won two games in a row after their 19-17 win against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite two Fridays ago on November 29th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers only gained 187 net yards last week against a Falcons defense that Sam Darnold just enjoyed a career day against this afternoon. They are generating only 298.5 total YPG on the road — and they are banged up on that side of the ball. Running back J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision with shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey accounted for 117 of their 187 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road after a victory in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. On the road, the Chargers are only giving up 13.2 Points-Per-Game — and head coach Jim Harbaugh’s game plan will most likely be to engage in a ball control offense that keeps Patrick Mahomes off the field. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Kansas City remains tough to move the ball on — they are holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 19.6 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They are holding their visitors to just 18.8 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home against divisional rivals. These lower-scoring games against familiar rivals have much to do with the game-planning and scheming of Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is as good as it gets -- and he is even better when more familiar with the opposing team.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are avenging a 17-10 loss at home to the Chiefs back on September 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their mind. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (141) and the Kansas City Chiefs (142). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-05-24 |
Packers v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The biggest storyline for this NFC North showdown is the injury situation. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. I do expect the Lions to keep scoring. They lead the NFL in Points Per Drive and Pass Success Rate. They are fourth in Expected Points Added Per Play. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 121.7 Passer Rating in his last ten games — and he has always thrived when playing indoors. I expect this game to be a barn-burner between two good teams. Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Lions have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. In their last 28 games at home, Detroit is scoring 32.3 Points-Per-Game — and those games generated 54.6 combined PPG. The Packers are scoring 26.5 PPG with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG — and the Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who outscore their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Green Bay is missing two defensive starters with cornerback Jaire Alexander and middle linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out tonight with injuries. That hurts a defense that already ranks 19th on the road in Points Allowed Per Drive. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games over the Total after a win at home. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an earlier loss in the season — and the Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-02-24 |
Browns v. Broncos OVER 41.5 | | 32-41 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (483) and the Denver Broncos (484). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-19 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 21st. Denver (7-5) has won two games in a row after their 29-19 win at Las Vegas as a 5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is too low a number tonight in what will be fine weather. While the temperatures will drop into the 30s, the skies will be clear and the wind minimal at three miles per hour. Cleveland gave up 368 yards of offense against the Steelers last week which was 23 more yards than their season average. The Browns have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Cleveland has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Denver offense continues to trend upwards with Bo Nix making significant strides in his rookie season. Since Week Five, the Broncos rank 15th in the NFL with an Expected Points Added per play of 0.039 — and their EPA in the last two games is 0.167. They ranked sixth in EPA per dropback in November. In his last ten starts, Nix is completing 66.1% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and only two interceptions for a 99.2 Passer Rating. Nix is smashing the narrative that he was a product of a short passing game last year with Oregon as well. In his last five games on passes of 10 or more air yards, he has accumulated 716 passing yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions and a Passer Rating of 126.9. In his last three games, Nix has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions — and he has thrown for 580 yards in his last two contests. The Broncos have scored at least 28 points in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored. The Browns are scoring only 16.9 Points-Per-Game but giving up 24.3 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams giving up 24 or more PPG — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams who are not scoring more than 17 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in that range. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (483) and the Denver Broncos (484). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-01-24 |
49ers v. Bills UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-35 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This was a tricky one to handicap since my initial take was to lean to the Over since both these teams tend to play in higher-scoring games. But both the weather and injuries play a big role in assessing the over/under number for tonight’s game. It will be cold with the temperatures dropping into the mid-20s. There is a 77% chance of precipitation so some snow is likely — but snow often helps the offense since it impairs the ability of defenders to react to playmakers. Dan Marino was quoted as saying: “If it’s snowing, I’m throwing.” Wind can be a problem. The afternoon forecast for this evening projects winds at 11 miles per hour which is not too bad. But wind gusts of up to 29 MPH are also expected — and that is a problem. The biggest argument that convinced me to endorse the Under is the injury situation. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to play tonight — but I do not like what is going on with the mysterious shoulder injury that kept him out of last week’s game. He may not be close to 100%. The 49ers are also without two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Brooks out. The loss of Williams is devastating as he is the best left tackle in the world. In the two games Purdy played without Williams last season, he had two touchdown passes and four interceptions — and the Niners only scored 17 points in both games. Their offense has already been slowed down by the season-ending injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Running back Christian McCaffrey is back after missing the first eight games of the season — but he does not appear to be at full strength as he is generating only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry and has yet to score a touchdown. The Niners are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game since McCaffrey returned — and they have scored no more than 18 points in three of their last five games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is dealing with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, with the biggest loss being Nick Bosa. Given all this, I expect Shanahan to shorten this game by running the football and leaning heavily on McCaffrey to carry the offense. Shanahan has not found himself in a situation like this often — and the past results are telling. In his career as the head coach for San Francisco, there have been 23 games when the 49ers were on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points — and 16 of those games finished Under the Total. The 49ers have played 16 of their 24 games in the Shanahan era Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, in their 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points under Shanahan, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Buffalo is dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable. Their defense may be bolstered with the return of linebacker Matt Milano who has yet to play this season — he is listed as questionable. The Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last six games. They are allowing only 286.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. San Francisco is averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 384.8 total YPG this season. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who generate 5.65 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: I expect the 49ers to rely on their ground game which generates 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry against a vulnerable Bills defense that surrenders 4.78 YPC. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against these teams. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-28-24 |
Dolphins v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-30 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 34-15 win against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-10 victory against San Francisco on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather will not be conducive for offensive firepower tonight. Temperatures are expected in the 20s in Green Bay during the game with the wind chill dipping into the single digits. Winds will be around 15 miles per hour with gusts eclipsing 20 MPH. With wind like that, the passing game and field goal attempts will be impacted. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold in his career — he has lost all four of his starts when the temperature is below 40 degrees. He has completed only 54.5% of his passes in those four games with four touchdown passes and five interceptions — and he has a low 68.2 Passer Rating in those games. In the three games in cold weather where wind was also a factor, Miami only scored 39 combined points. While the weather is getting much of the headlines for tonight’s game, I think the defenses for both teams deserve more attention in this non-conference showdown. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 19 points in three straight games. They held the Patriots to just 269 total yards last week. While they rank 11th this season in Expected Points Added per play, they rise to fifth in that metric in the last three weeks. They rank fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt this season. They have improved in stopping the run as well. They have held opposing rushers to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Five. Overall, they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 21.5 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 19.0 PPG. Miami has played 4 of their 5 games on the road this season Under the Total. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an AFC East rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a game against a division rival. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Green Bay held the 49ers to just 241 total yards last week. They have only given up 29 combined points in their last two contests. At home, the Packers are holding their guests to just 285.7 total YPG which is resulting in just 18.3 PPG. Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense this season — and they have held their last five opponents to just 190 passing YPG. They also lead the NFL with 22 takeaways. Don’t underestimate quarterback Jordan Love’s discomfort in the cold — he is not Brett Favre when it comes to thriving in these conditions. He has a 2-2 record straight-up in his four starts under 40 degrees. Love only completed 13 of 23 passes last week for 163 yards. He ranks 32nd in the league by completing only 61.8% of his passes — and he ranks 32nd in Passer Rating on third down. To compound matters, he will be without wide receiver Romeo Doubs tonight due to injury. Head coach Matt LaFleur has adapted to Love’s accuracy (and interception) issues by leaning on the run and embracing a ball-control offense. The Packers rank 30th in the NFL in pass-rate versus the league expectation — and they rank 29th in pace of play. Green Bay has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Thanksgiving night game has seen 11 of the last 17 games finish Under the Total by an average of 4.2 PPG — and in the last 11 Thanksgiving night games with the Total set at 43 or higher, 8 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-25-24 |
Ravens v. Chargers OVER 50 | | 30-23 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-4) had won two games in a row before their 18-16 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 34-27 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore has played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss against a fellow AFC North rival including in three of those last four circumstances. The Ravens offense leads the NFL in EPA per play — and they rank in the top-five in Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. Jackson will face a Chargers defense that usually operates Cover-4 pass defensive schemes that divide the defensive backfield into four quarters for zone coverage. He has a 116.9 Passer Rating against Cover-4 defenses. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. Additionally, the Ravens have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. And in their last 8 games against teams from the AFC, they have played 6 of these games Over the Total. The Ravens are probably not going to have the services of linebacker Roquan Smith who is dealing with a hamstring injury — but the Chargers are banged up as well on defense with linebacker Denzel Perryman out and linebackers Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree both questionable. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 4 straight Overs after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also played 3 straight Overs after winning three or more games in a row. Furthermore, Jim Harbaugh’s teams as the head coach of San Francisco and now the Chargers have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where they scored 30 or more points. His NFL teams have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 home games played in November.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are averaging 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt with quarterback Justin Herbert beginning to get the green light to air the ball out in his first season with Harbaugh — and the Ravens have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA in the passing game. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-24-24 |
Eagles v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 37-20 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-2) has won six games in a row after their 26-18 victory against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite back on November 14th. Los Angeles (5-5) has won four of their last five games with their 28-22 victory at New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Commanders to just 264 yards of offense last week. They lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.1 total Yards-Per-Game. It often takes some time for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to get his units up to speed in his first year with a new group — but the young but talented Philly defense is learning quickly. Since their bye week in Week Six, they lead the NFL by allowing only 13.8 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up just 211.3 total YPG. The Eagles lead the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game during that span. They have also surrendered the fewest explosive plays of both 10 or more and 20 or more yards. Their defense also ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN’s numbers — and Los Angeles is still dealing with injuries on their offensive line. Now coming off extra time since playing the Thursday game last week, Fangio should have his defense rested and ready for the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford offense. On the road, Philadelphia has held their home hosts to just 270.5 total YPG which has resulted in only 16.7 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Los Angeles is another team that has steadily improved on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week Three, the Rams' defense ranks third in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. They play better defense at home at SoFi Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 315.8 total YPG which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. While Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL by allowing 2.8 points per opponent drive, they improve to fifth in the league when playing at home as they hold their opponents to just 1.8 points per drive. The Rams also rank third in the NFL with a pressure rate on the quarterback in 38% of their opponent’s dropbacks — and this is an area where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vulnerable. Hurts averages 9.7 YPA when throwing in a clean pocket — but that number drops to just 5.7 YPA when under pressure which ranks 25th in the NFL. And while the Eagles' offensive line has the reputation of still being an elite unit without their now-retired center Jason Kelce, they are allowing Hurts to be pressured in 42% of his dropbacks. The Philly offense has been elevated with the acquisition of running back Saquon Barkley. They average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry as a team which is generating a league-leading 174.3 rushing YPG. But the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-21-24 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 37 | Top | 19-24 |
Loss | -114 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 18-16 upset win as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (2-8) has lost two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 35-14 upset loss at New Orleans on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I know it is ugly to invest in the Under when the number drops into the 30s — but that is kind of the point. The public likes to bet the Over as it is — and banking on the Over looks even easier when the number is this low. Keep in mind, since 2020 the Under is 35-15-1 in NFL games when the Total is set no higher than 37. Now I am not a zombie to empirical trends like this. For me, it is a starting point rather than an ending point. When then considering the weather forecast tonight, the case strengthens for expecting a very low-scoring game. There is a 90% chance for precipitation with the temperature dropping into the 30s — so even snow is a possibility. These conditions likely mean conservative game plans from both teams. For the Steelers, that means plenty of running the football and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much and risk turning the ball over. As it is, this has been the approach with Wilson under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh is passing the ball 7% below baseline NFL expectations given the down-and-distance situation — and they are passing the ball 11% less on first down relative to NFL expectations. Wilson has been successful with his moonball deep passes to wide receiver George Pickens — but there are a few reasons to suspect this connection will be stymied tonight. The weather will make it more difficult to complete long bombs. Pickens will also likely struggle against Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward who ranks second of 117 qualifying cornerbacks by holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 44% completion percentage when he is targeted. The Steelers are scoring more since Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback — but the offense has not been efficient. Pittsburgh ranks just 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per play with Wilson with the offense too often simply boom-or-bust with his moon shots. They rank outside the top-15 in both EPA per pass attempt and EPA per rushing attempt — so even the notion that Wilson’s play-action game has unlocked running back Najee Harris is disputed by the deeper analytics. Furthermore, Wilson has not been effective in the Red Zone — he has completed only 29% of his passes inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Not only is that his lowest completion percentage in the Red Zone in his career, but it is almost 20% lower than his number last year in Denver which was one of the reasons that Sean Payton concluded that it would be better to pay him $50 million to play elsewhere. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Ravens — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. Cleveland has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games. While the offense has been better since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson who suffered a season-ending injury, the former Florida State and Tampa Bay quarterback has not fared well when playing in cold weather. In his five career starts when the weather was below 50 degrees, his teams have scored only 15.3 Points-Per-Game and never more than 20 points. Now Winston faces a Steel Curtain defense that is holding their home hosts to just 279.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.6 Points-Per-Game. The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: Even with the low-number, the evidence leads the Under tonight — especially since either one of these teams could struggle to reach double-digits. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals — and the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-18-24 |
Texans v. Cowboys UNDER 41.5 | | 34-10 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 26-23 loss at home to Detroit as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-6) has lost four games in a row after their 34-6 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback C.J. Stroud is a different quarterback when playing away from NRG Stadium. At home in his career, Stroud has completed 66.3% of his passes and averages 290.6 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 94.3 Quarterback Rating. But on the road in his career, Stroud completes only 58.6% of his passes and averages 183.6 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA while posting an 82.5 QBR. Houston’s offensive line is struggling to protect their start sophomore quarterback. He has been sacked 18 times in their last four games — and he has faced a pressure rate of at least 40% of his dropbacks in all four of those games. Even with Nico Collins returning to action tonight, don’t expect the Texans’ offense to explode tonight. As it is, Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin last week after the Lions’ Jared Goff threw five interceptions — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total in non-conference play. Dallas got humiliated last week — and with Dak Prescott out the season, there is probably not much they can do on the offensive side of the ball against this Texans team that ranks second in the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Houston holds their home hosts to just 287.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Even with Prescott playing all but one of their games at home, the Cowboys are generating only 290.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 Points-Per-Game. But the Cowboys are getting healthier on defense headlined by Micah Parsons' return last week. Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 14 or fewer points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games — and Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-17-24 |
Bengals v. Chargers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-31 loss at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog back on November 7th. Los Angeles (6-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-17 win against Tennessee as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred grinding style of play that emphasizes the Chargers rushing attack usually dictates the tone of the game. Their games are averaging just 33.8 combined points scored per game — and the 44 combined points scored last week was their highest combined point total of the season. They rank just 20th in the league in Big Plays. The commitment to run the football has helped keep their talented defense fresh — and first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continues to be outstanding coaching up the defense after serving in the same capacity for Harbaugh the previous two seasons at Michigan. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 13.1 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up only three rushing touchdowns. This defense ranks third in the league in the following categories: 3.4 Sacks-Per-Game; Adjusted Net Passing Yards Allowed; Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They rank fifth in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They rank sixth by holding their opponents to just 302.1 total YPG. Nick Bosa’s name was removed from the injury report this week — and while Khalil Mack is listed as questionable, he has declared that he expects to play. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win at home. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing their last game on a Thursday. The Bengals' defense has been playing better lately as they had held four straight opponents to 314.8 YPG before their rematch with the Ravens last week. Trey Hendrickson is expected to play tonight despite dealing with a neck injury. Don’t be surprised if they slow down the Chargers’ ground game since they rank sixth in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Chargers are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 PPG — and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. Los Angeles allows their opponents to generate 4.7 YPC — and Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are scoring 27.0 PPG and giving up 26.2 PPG — and the Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who allow 24 or more PPG. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-14-24 |
Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 50 | Top | 18-26 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only gained 242 yards of offense last week with rookie phenom Jayden Daniels only completing 17 of 34 passes for just 202 yards. He gained just five yards on the ground on three carries and no scrambles. One dynamic I have been on alert for is how this Washington offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would continue to develop in the second half of the season. Kingsbury earned the reputation as the head coach in Arizona as someone who did not continue to innovate and adapt in the second half of the season. Defensive head coaches catchup to his concepts — and his Cardinals’ teams saw a reduction in offensive production in the second half of the season. Daniels is only averaging 195.5 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last two games — and he has thrown for no more than 219 yards in six of his nine starts. But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. His teams have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in Weeks 10 through 13. Philadelphia held the Cowboys to only 2.6 Yards-Per-Play last week which resulted in just 146 yards of offense. The young Eagles defense appears to be maturing under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have not allowed more than 23 points in five straight games — and they have held four of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. Philly enjoys the third lowest opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they rank 11th in the NFL Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. And while the Commanders generate 153.5 rushing YPG, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-11-24 |
Dolphins v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 23-15 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have a good young defense that is underrated and getting healthier. They lead the NFL in sacks, hits on the quarterback, and interceptions. They rank second in the league with a pressure rate of 29.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Since returning from their bye week in Week Seven, they rank second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 339.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Rams have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. Miami is without right tackle Austin Jackson — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision with a wrist injury he re-aggravated on Friday. He says he “will try” to play tonight — but the signs are not looking good. Even if he takes the field, he will probably not be 100% since catching the football requires using one’s wrist. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expectation. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road after allowing 30 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Rams are giving up 360.1 total YPG, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games under head coach Sean McVay. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-10-24 |
Lions v. Texans UNDER 49.5 | | 26-23 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (283) and the Houston Texans (284). THE SITUATION: Detroit (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 win at Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-13 loss in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston held the Jets to just 293 yards of offense last week. The Texans are holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total played on grass. Detroit has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass which tends to slow down their speedy skill players on offense. The Lions may be scoring 32.3 PPG but they are only generating 369.6 total YPG. They only gained 261 yards last week in their win against Green Bay. Much of their scoring has been dependent on forcing turnovers. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown last week — and they have forced 13 turnovers in their alt five games. The underappreciated aspect of this Detroit team has been how good their defense has played since the injury to Adrian Hutchinson. In the three games since that injury, the Lions have registered five sacks and another 12 hits on the quarterback. Detroit ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Detroit has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. They are allowing 357.1 total YPG — and the Texans have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Toal set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (283) and the Houston Texans (284). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-10-24 |
Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 44 | | 34-6 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (279) and the Dallas Cowboys (280). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-2) has won four games in a row after their 28-23 win against Jacksonville as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-5) has lost three games in a row after their 27-21 loss at Atlanta on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Falcons to just 310 yards of offense last week despite the injuries they have sustained on defense. Now they look to get defensive end Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs back with this unit starting to get healthy again. But Dallas will be playing without quarterback Dak Prescott moving forward with him going on the injured list with his hamstring injury. Cooper Rush will be under center for the Cowboys. He completed only 13 of 25 passes in relief last week for just 115 passing yards and a low 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Dallas has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Eagles score 24.9 Points-Per-Game — and the Cowboys have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Eagles are running the ball more which is helping to keep their defense rested. Their offense has been on the field for over 35 minutes per game in their last three games which is about three minutes above their season average. Not coincidentally, they have held their last three opponents to 204.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in these foes scoring just 14.3 PPG. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. They have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play, Philly has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 5.65 or more YPP.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (279) and the Dallas Cowboys (280). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-07-24 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 54 | | 34-35 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (109) and the Baltimore Ravens (110). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-24 win against Las Vegas last Sunday. Baltimore (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 41-10 victory as a 9-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Broncos to just 319 yards last week with only 192 yards coming in the air. Baltimore ranks third in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. But they also rank just 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA. After the Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow threw for a season-high 392 yards against them on October 6th in their 41-38 overtime win at home last month, head coach John Harbaugh brought in veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a senior advisor to rookie defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. The Ravens should have a better defensive plan in this rematch. At home, they are only giving up 280.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record including 5 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati is also playing better defense since the scoring fest between these two teams last month. The Bengals are giving tip 342.9 total YPG but they have held their last four opponents to 314.8 YPG in their last four games since the loss to the Ravens. In their four games on the road, they are allowing their home hosts to generate just 326.5 YPG which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. Cincinnati has played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as a dog getting up to seven points. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals will likely be without wide receiver Tee Higgins who is listed as doubtful with a quad injury — and starting left tackle Orlando Brown is questionable with a knee injury. They are scoring 26.2 PPG — but Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24.0 or more PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (109) and the Baltimore Ravens (110). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-04-24 |
Bucs v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | | 24-30 |
Loss | -105 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 27-20 win at home against Las Vegas as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City held the Raiders to just 228 yards last Sunday — but they only managed 334 yards themselves despite scoring 27 points. The Chiefs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against an AFC West rival. They stay at home where they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. Kansas City’s defense should dominate this game. They are holding their opponents to 295.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.6 Points-Per-Game — and they rank second in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are only giving up 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank second in Defensive DVOA against the run. Furthermore, KC ranks third in pressure rate — and they play man-to-man pass coverage that the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield has struggled against. Mayfield’s Expected Points Added per dropback are higher when he is playing against zone schemes. He has faced zone defenses for the last five games — but when he played against man schemes in Weeks Two and Three against Detroit and Denver, Tampa Bay generated only 219.5 total YPG which resulted in 13.5 PPG. While the Buccaneers gained 432 yards against the Falcons’ defense despite the injuries to wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, matching that production will be more difficult against this Steve Spagnuolo defense. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. And while the Bucs endured a -3 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a two-game home stand. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range. And in their last 7 games in November, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. The Tampa Bay pass defense is vulnerable as they are surrendering 255.4 passing YPG — but Kansas City has played 6 straight Unders against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are scoring 29.4 PPG this season — but the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. Rain is expected at Arrowhead Stadium tonight which may play a role in slowing down one or both of these offenses tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-03-24 |
Colts v. Vikings OVER 45 | Top | 13-21 |
Loss | -112 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In the three games that Flacco has played this season, the Colts have scored 81 combined points for a 27.0 Points-Per-Game average. Those three games saw an average of 53 combined points scored. For the season, he has seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He was never very mobile — so there could be concern about him facing the blitz-heavy Vikings defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But Flacco brings plenty of savvy with him — and he knows he has to get the ball out early and attack the blitz. He is averaging only one sack per 21 throws this season which is much better than Richardson’s sack rate despite his great mobility. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed. They should also get plenty of production from running back Jonathan Taylor who returned from his three-game absence by rushing for 105 yards on 20 carries. The Minnesota run defense has been exposed lately as they surrendered 250 rushing yards in their last two games. The Colts' defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have suffered two straight upset losses, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. This Flores defense is showing signs of vulnerability lately having surrendered 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Vikings are giving up 263.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 235 or more passing Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 350 or more YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 28.7 PPG at home this season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as a home favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-31-24 |
Texans v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 13-21 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans held the Colts to just 303 yards of offense in their three-point victory last week. While quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention for this team, the Houston defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans is outstanding. The Texans rank second in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. General manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level on that side of the ball. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair came over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgraded Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. So far this season, Houston already has 27 sacks — and they have another 54 hits on the quarterback and 52 tackles for loss. Now they face the aging Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 13 times in his last five games while taking another 39 hits to the quarterback over that span. The Texans are allowing only 280.3 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG in their four games on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. Now the Texans go back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. To compound matters, Stroud will be without his top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. The Texans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York held the Patriots to only 247 yards last week but discovered another way to lose. The Jets are generating only 310.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.8 Points-Per-Game. But the New York defense is giving up only 286.8 total YPG — and they are holding their visitors to just 228.0 YPG at home which is resulting in their guests scoring only 12.0 PPG. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing at home. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored — and Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-28-24 |
Giants v. Steelers UNDER 37.5 | | 18-26 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-3 loss to Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-15 upset win at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York plays lower-scoring games because they combined a solid defense with an inept offense. They rank 14th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are generating only 290.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 14.1 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their opponents to 317.6 YPG overall and 18.7 PPG when playing on the road. New York leads the league with 31 sacks. The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Additionally, New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in October. Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the league in Defensive DVOA — but they are just 21st in Offensive DVOA which is why they tend to play Unders. The Steelers hold their opponents to 298.6 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.4 PPG. Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Jets last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 7 straight Unders in non-conference play — and Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in non-conference action. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-27-24 |
Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | | 24-30 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (289) and the San Francisco 49ers (290). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 47-9 loss at home against Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Sundays ago. San Francisco (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-15 upset loss against Kansas City as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense is struggling as well with several key injuries. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss his third straight game. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrove will miss his fifth straight game tonight. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has not played all season. Their absences help explain why San Francisco has allowed 25.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their defense ranks 21st in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The Niners have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they are favored by 3.5 to7 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has a real predicament on defense given the injuries to linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland. And in hindsight, perhaps that unit was destined to take a step back after defensive coordinator Dan Quinn left to take the Washington head coaching job. The Cowboys have surrendered 44 or more points twice this season after the Lions generated 492 yards against them. Dallas has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Niners average 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry while the Cowboys are allowing their opponents to generate 4.5 YPC. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are generating 4.5 or more YPC — and San Francisco has played 4 straight Overs against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more YPC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (289) and the San Francisco 49ers (290). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-27-24 |
Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-20 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-0) remained undefeated this season after their 28-18 upset victory at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-5) has lost three games in a row after their 20-15 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the 49ers’ offense to joust 310 yards. But the Kansas City offense only managed 329 yards of offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes of that game. Patrick Mahomes only passed for 154 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The team did acquire wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this week which will help — but he will not immediately replace the production of injured wideout Rashee Rice. The defense is carrying this team. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to 306.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 18 points in four straight contests. They rank fourth in DVOA defense using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and now he faces a limited Raiders offense that he prepares against twice a season. Kansas City has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, while the Chiefs have played four straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks Five through Nine. Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in three straight games as they learn to live life without wide receiver Davante Adams. They are scoring just 15.3 PPG in those last three games. For the season, the Raiders are generating just 296.7 total YPG which is resulting in 17.7 PPG. Their offense ranks 29th in DVOA. With second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell injured, it will be Gardner Minshew back under center — he has a career-low 73.2 Quarterback Rating this season. But the Las Vegas defense has been solid under head coach Antonio Pierce. They held the Rams to just 259 yards last week — and they are giving up only 316.9 total YPG this season. Pierce knows this Chiefs offense — he was the interim coach last Christmas when the Raiders upset Kansas City by a 20-14 score. Minshew was responsible for four turnovers last week in a game that Las Vegas ended with a -3 net turnover margin — and Las Vegas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Raiders are giving up 26.1 PPG — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders against teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Kansas City is generating 350.3 YPG which is resulting in 24.3 PPG — and Las Vegas has played 4 straight Unders against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who generate 350 or more YPG. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Lastly, KC has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-24-24 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 48 | Top | 20-30 |
Loss | -108 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings surrendered 31 points last week which was the second time all season they have given up more than 17 points this season. When not playing the Lions or Green Bay, then Minnesota is only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense ranks number one in the NFL in both Run Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. On the road, the Vikings are surrendering just 319.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. Los Angeles only generated 259 yards last week with one of their touchdowns coming from a 33-yard fumble recovery. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). But the team did not activate starting tackle Joe Noteboom from the injured list — and the porous offensive line has played a big role in holding back their offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 114 throws. They have scored more than 20 points only once this season. But the defense continues to improve — especially since Week Five after cornerback Tre’Davious White was benched. The Rams held Green Bay to just 323 total yards two weeks ago before limiting the Raiders to 317 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total. And while the Vikings are allowing 260.8 passing YPG, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 235 or more passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-21-24 |
Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 51 | | 41-31 |
Loss | -110 | 0 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense to just 305 yards of offense. They lead the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They have been particularly stout against the run as they are holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry and 59.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. And while the Buccaneers are giving up 252.3 passing YPG, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. Additionally, Baltimore has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay held the Saints to just 303 yards last week. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 straight Unders after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. The Bucs defense looks likely to get a boost tonight with defensive tackle Vita Vea expected to play after being listed as questionable all week. His return helps a defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards Allowed per opponent rushing attempt.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-20-24 |
Jets v. Steelers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 15-37 |
Loss | -111 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-17-24 |
Broncos v. Saints UNDER 37 | | 33-10 |
Loss | -109 | 0 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. But the offense ranks just 26th in Offensive DVOA — and they are only generating 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Saints are simply ravaged by injures right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-14-24 |
Bills v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | Top | 23-20 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-13-24 |
Bengals v. Giants UNDER 49.5 | Top | 17-7 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-10-24 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 36-24 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-07-24 |
Saints v. Chiefs UNDER 43 | Top | 13-26 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-06-24 |
Cowboys v. Steelers UNDER 43.5 | | 20-17 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday. Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in their win against the Giants last week. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG — and now wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. Dallas stays on the road for the second straight week — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after playing on the road the previous week. They have also played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh played their best game on offense in a losing effort last week. They are generating only 317.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 18.8 PPG. But they continue to play great defense under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are holding their opponents to just 261.8 total YPG which is resulting in just 13.3 PPG. The Steelers return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-03-24 |
Bucs v. Falcons UNDER 44 | | 30-36 |
Loss | -105 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The Buccaneers' offense is only generating 319.0 YPG — and they are without right tackle Luke Goedeke to injury and left tackle Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice this week. As it is, the Tampa Bay rushing attack ranks 24th in DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics — and their running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in that 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 straight Unders after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-30-24 |
Seahawks v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 29-42 |
Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.
FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-29-24 |
Bills v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | | 10-35 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They held the Jaguars to only 239 yards in their victory on Monday — and they are only giving up 286.7 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.0 Points-Per-Game for their opponents. But quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Ravens return home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 12 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-26-24 |
Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 | Top | 20-15 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 28-25 loss at home against Baltimore as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 21-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 432 yards of offense and 44 points two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Cowboys surrendered 456 total yards and another 28 points last week against the Ravens. First-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer needs to get this defense on the same page after the early reviews were great when they held Cleveland to just 230 yards and 17 points in their opener. Getting an appearance from the Regression Gods regarding their Red Zone defense will help immensely. Dallas’ opponents have scored touchdowns on 90% of their trips inside their 20-yard line this season. The NFL average tends to be in the 55% range regarding touchdown proficiency once in the Red Zone. The Browns had the worst Red Zone defense last season with opponents scoring touchdowns in 71% of their trips inside the Cowboys’ 20-yard line — so that 90% clip is, thankfully for Dallas fans, unsustainable. Dallas ranked fifth in the league by only giving up 299.7 total Yards-Per-Game last season — and they ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA using the analytics by the Football Outsiders. Facing the new Saints offense that is leaning heavily into pre-snap motion and play-action passes in Week Two before the always difficult task for NFC teams in playing Lamar Jackson who presents such a unique threat with his legs probably explains the slow start on that side of the ball. As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The concerns about the offense are more troubling. Dallas does not have a reliable lead running back with Rico Dowdle suddenly their main rusher. They brought back an over-the-hill Ezekiel Elliott in the offseason — but his strengths are in pass blocking and short-yardage at this stage of his career. Change-of-pace back Deuce Vaughn has not developed. The Cowboys are third to the bottom in the league by both rushing for only 73.7 Yards-Per-Game and averaging just 20.7 rush attempts per game. Dowdle is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The offensive line is no longer the strength of this team, which it once was after losing two starters in the offseason. Rookie Tyler Guyton has replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle — but he has already allowed three pressures in his first three games in the NFL. This spells trouble for quarterback Dak Prescott who already tends to play better at home. Perhaps it is the rhythm he finds with his “here we go” cadence. Last year in eight regular season games at home, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes while averaging 308.8 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions helped him register a 120.0 Quarterback Rating. But in his nine starts on the road last regular season, he only completed 65.4% of his passes while averaging 65.4% of his passes — and he had 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions while posting a 92.4 QBR. New York flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Browns to 217 total yards. The Giants' defense is much better this season after acquiring defensive end Brian Burns from Carolina in the offseason. He already has 15 pressures which ranks ninth in the NFL. New York has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Quarterback Daniel Jones posted a Passer Rating of 110 last week — but let’s not read too much into that since Pro Football Focus assigned him the third worst grade last week ahead of just Anthony Richardson and Skylar Thompson. Jones is another QB with disparate home-road splits — but Jones tends to play better away from the New York fans at MetLife Stadium. In his career 32 games on the road, Jones has a 91.2 QBR while completing 64.4% of his passes and averaging 213.2 passing YPG — and he has 39 touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions. But in his 31 career games at home, his QBR drops to 78.6 with a 63.6% completion percentage and a 202.9 passing YPG mark — and he has thrown 27 touchdown passes while throwing 28 picks.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the New York Giants (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-23-24 |
Commanders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | | 38-33 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 after their 21-18 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 loss at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders held the Giants to just 304 yards of offense last week in their three-point victory. Former Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn seems to have already made his presence known as the new head coach for this team. Quinn is a proven defensive wizard with elite defenses in Seattle before the Falcons and Cowboys — so even an upgrade to the middle of the pack would do wonders for this team. But the offense could not find the end zone last week as they settled for seven field goals to pull out that game. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has not thrown a touchdown pass yet. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 3 of their 4 games on the road Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams as a head coach have played 4 of their 6 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati only gained 320 yards last week against the Chiefs after only generating 224 yards in their opening game against New England. Granted, Tee Higgins being out with an injury in the first two games has not helped — and they get him back tonight. But I don’t think his return simply allows this offense to flip the switch. It looks like Burrow missed wide receiver Tyler Boyd who played an important role in their three-headed monster at wide receiver in his career at Cincinnati. The ground game has not been the same without running back Joe Mixon. I remained concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? The Bengals have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing in September. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-22-24 |
Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 46.5 | | 22-17 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 26-25 win against Cincinnati as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) won their first game of the season on Monday with their 22-21 upset win at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs' offense has yet to find midseason form as they only gained 286 yards from 19 first downs last week against the Bengals. But Patrick Mahomes has gotten very comfortable playing in lower-scoring games given the strength of the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Spags lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. And while a revenge-motivated Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson moved the ball against them two weeks ago, they held the Bengals to just 320 total yards last week. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. It took some spectacular game mismanagement from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to even give the Falcons the opportunity to steal a victory from the jaws of defeat. But after Sirianni bypassed running the ball on third down to continue to burn time off the clock and set up a fourth down Push-Tush with Jalen Hurts icing the game with a first down, he dialed up a pass play and re-learned the hard lesson that when you pass the ball, three things can happen — and two are bad. That set up Kirk Cousins to orchestrate his best drive yet in a Falcons uniform to lead the offense for a game-winning touchdown — but we are all left wondering what would have happened if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio would have sent pressure rather than playing soft coverage with his quarters pass coverage with two high safety engaging in the dreaded “prevent” defense. Cousins ended up with 20 completions from his 29 passes for 241 passing yards and two touchdown passes — but that solid stat line looks much different if he was not gifted the opportunity to complete 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards and a TD on that final drive. The eye-test from Monday observed a struggling Falcons offense that only gained 315 yards before that final drive. Tight end Kyle Pitts remains an afterthought. Robinson’s play-calling is a work in progress. We are left to wonder why he had Cousins in shotgun in the opening week against Pittsburgh before reverting back to him under center last week. Cousins' mobility remains limited. And now here comes Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who loves to send pressure — and he knows Cousins well from his time as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when Cousins entered the league with Washington. In Spags’ eight games against Cousins, his defense has sacked him eight times and limited him to 12 touchdown passes while picking off eight of his passes. The Steelers demonstrated the limitations this offense will face if Cousins is under duress. But the under-appreciated strength of this Atlanta team may be their defense that ranked 11th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 321.1 total Yards-Per-Game — and they added veteran pass rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons in August. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and the Chiefs have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored including five of their last eight games on the road when not laying more than seven points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-22-24 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-27 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 upset loss at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 41-10 loss at Arizona as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco is likely missing three important pieces to their dynamic offense with running back Christian McCaffrey on the injured list, wide receiver Deebo Samuel declared out for this game, and tight end George Kittle listed as doubtful. That takes away three of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “jokers” where he can comfortably line them up in multiple offensive positions to stress the defense. Shanahan still has wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and fullback Kyle Juszczyk — but they are not as formidable without those other three versatile players on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy has already taken eight sacks this season. Expect a game plan similar to what the 49ers deployed against the New York Jets when they rushed for 180 yards — this game should be about smash-mouth football for the Niners after they gave up 403 yards to the Vikings last week. This remains a good 49ers defense that is only allowing 334.5 Yards-Per-Game this season. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored by seven points or less. Los Angeles is decimated with injuries. With the offensive line depleted and quarterback Matthew Stafford missing his top two wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams are likely to focus on running the ball behind Kyren Robinson and rookie Blake Corum to protect the offensive line (run blocking is easier to execute) and their veteran quarterback. The injuries have left this Los Angeles offense punchless — they are generating only 316.0 YPG this season which is resulting in 15.0 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to an NFC West rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-19-24 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 38.5 | | 3-24 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 23-20 loss in overtime at Seattle as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New York (1-1) won their first game of the year with their 24-17 victory at Tennessee as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New England has continuity and cohesion on defense with a unit that returns 14 of the top 18 players from a group that finished in the top ten in total defense for the fourth time in the last five seasons after holding their opponents to just 301.6 Yards-Per-Game, ranking seventh in the NFL. The Patriots accomplished that despite cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones missing most of the season. Linebackers coach (and former star player for Bill Belichick) Jared Mayo takes over as head coach in this new era — and his player-friendly approach should provide an immediate breath of fresh air in the locker room. The hope is that getting healthy again can keep the momentum going on defense — and so far this season they are only giving up 291.0 total YPG and just 16.5 PPG. The offense is trying to put the defense in a position to succeed by running the football, limiting turnovers, and burning time off the clock. The Patriots are averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game which has resulted them in being on offense for just under 35 minutes per game. This is a recipe for lower-scoring games. New England has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. But the Patriots are only generating 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game with this approach which is resulting in just 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Aaron Rodgers is just the 16th quarterback in NFL history to play after turning 40. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a major injury either when still playing at a high level at 40 years old. Maybe Rodgers’ statistical decline two years ago with the Packers was mostly a result of the departure of wide receiver Davante Adams. Maybe he replicates what Warren Moon once did and returns from a major injury at 40 years old and plays at a high level. After two games, we can start making some assessments. Rodgers’ arm still looks great at times — but he looks limited with his mobility. The results so far have not been that this will be an explosive offense under Rodgers — and those who predicted that he would contend for the MVP award look foolish. He has only thrown for 343 yards in two games with his high game being the 176 yards he threw for last week on 30 attempts. His 60.8% completion percentage is his lowest since 2015 and the second-lowest of his career since he became Green Bay’s starting quarterback. That completion percentage is -9.0% below his expected completion percentage according to the analytics. His 5.4 intended air yards per pass is the third lowest amongst qualifying quarterbacks as well — so he can’t blame his commitment to a deep vertical passing attack for this decline. The Jets rank seventh in the league in Punt Rate per Drive — and they have gone three-and-out in 40% of their drives. It is early — so perhaps Rodgers will see these numbers improve as he gets more comfortable recovering from his injury. But a sudden transformation is not likely to happen on a short week. The Jets' defense remains good after holding the Titans last week to just 300 yards. They lead the NFL with a pressure rate of 44% against opponent dropbacks — and that could spell trouble for the Patriots’ Jacoby Brissett. New England ranks third-to-last in the league by allowing a pressure rate on 24% of their dropbacks — and they will be without left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow for tonight’s game. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home after a victory. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals — and they have played 4 straight Unders against the Patriots. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (301) and the New York Jets (302). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-16-24 |
Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 48.5 | | 22-21 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 18-10 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season with their 34-29 win against Green Bay as a 1-point favorite in Brazil last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Falcons' defense for the loss last week — they held the Steelers to just 270 yards of offense despite being on the field for 35:36 minutes of that game. The Falcons have a good defense that ranked 12th in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play and fifth in Opponent Success Rate against the Pass — and they added two quality veterans last month by trading for defensive end Matthew Judon and strong safety Justin Simmons. The problem for Atlanta was their sluggish offense which only gained 226 yards of offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins only completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards — and he looked limited with his mobility in his return from his Achilles injury last season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Philadelphia survived their game in Brazil against the Packers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Head coach Nick Sirianni turned to former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The conceptual fit with Moore in the RPO offense designed for quarterback Jalen Hurts may be troublesome. Moore loves to use motion — but the Eagles' offense has been static to allow for simpler decisions for Hurts: run the ball when the box is light, pass the ball if wide receivers A.J. Brown (and, BTW, he is out for tonight’s game with an injury) or DeVonta Smith encounter thin coverage. Opposing defenses may have caught up to Hurts last season as they found success goading him into ill-advised passes that did not match the situation and abandoned their elite offensive line. His 15 interceptions last season was a career-high — and he threw two more picks against Green Bay. While the offense needs a schematic rethink, Hurts may not be the ideal QB to effectively execute a motion-heavy offense that muddies the picture he is seeing. And, by the way, how much will the retirement of center Jason Kelce impact the offensive line? Was he the cheat code that made the “Brotherly Shove” so much more effective than the other copycats in the league? They failed to get a first down on their lone push-tush last week.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football — and the Falcons have played 9 straight Unders when playing in Prime-Time. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-15-24 |
Bears v. Texans UNDER 46 | Top | 13-19 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) comes off a 24-17 win at home against Tennessee as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-0) won their opener in a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears escaped the Titans despite only gaining 148 yards of offense in that game. Chicago did not score an offensive touchdown in that game. Instead, their three field goals were supported by a 21-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown and a 43-yard interception return for a touchdown. Not surprisingly, Caleb Williams struggled in his first professional start as many first picks in the NFL draft do when they are asked to start in Week One. But don’t sleep on this Bears defense that made dramatic improvements in the second half of the season. Certainly, the acquisition of defensive end Montez Sweat from Halloween deserves much of the credit. But this unit got healthier as they continued to progress under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus’ schemes. It goes deeper. Eberflus started calling the plays after defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team (and was later dismissed) for personal reasons. Eberflus likes Cover-3 concepts — but he started using Cover-2 and Quarters coverages in the second half of the season. So for a variety of reasons, the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in Yards-Per-Game allowed in their last nine games with Sweat. They sacked the quarterback 20 times in those last nine games — and they ranked third in the league in opponent Passer Rating. Additionally, they went from 19th in the NFL to third in takeaways with 19 forced turnovers after acquiring Sweat — and they finished the season tied for first in takeaways. In the second half of the season, they ended a drive via an interception 18% of the time. Since Week 10, they ranked 10th in the league in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking when playing in Cover-2. And after ranking 18th in the league in run defense after Week Four, they ended the season the stingiest unit in the league by allowing just 86.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game for the season. The defense should be quite good — and they held the Titans to just 244 yards of offense. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home. They also enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. Houston held the Colts to only 303 total yards in their narrow victory last week. The Texans ranked 11th in the NFL last season by allowing just 20.8 Points-Per-Game — and they should be better this year. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgrade Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair comes over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. The nickel cornerback in their 4-2-5 base defense remains a question but Caserio did bring in former first-round picks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah as potential reclamation projects. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Houston scored 24.5 PPG at home in their nine regular season games last year — but they did not score more than 22 points in six of those nine home games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Bears have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (289) and the Houston Texans (290). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-12-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-10 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-0) opened their season with a 34-28 victory against Arizona as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (1-0) is also undefeated to begin the new year after their 20-17 victory against Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 270 total yards of offense. One of the Arizona touchdowns came from a 96-yard kickoff return. Defensive end Greg Rousseau registered three sacks — but it was Von Miller’s one sack and five hits on the quarterback that might be the most encouraging aspect of their play on defense last week. Von Miller only played 258 snaps in an injury-plagued season last year — it would be a boon for this defense if he regains the form he enjoyed when playing for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super win three years ago. The offense continued their focus on running the football under offensive coordinator Joe Brady who took over in November for Ken Dorsey. The Bills ran the ball 33 times while asking Josh Allen to pass only 23 times. Running the ball is a recipe for lower-scoring games — and it has the additional benefit of keeping the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. In their 21-14 win at Miami on January 7th last season, Buffalo ran the ball 36 times and had the ball for 38:07 minutes of that game. The Bills have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range with Sean McDermott as their head coach. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. Miami’s defense played well last week as they held the Jaguars to just 267 total yards for former Baltimore defensive line coach Anthony Weaver who has taken over as their defensive coordinator. General manager Chris Grier signed at least nine free agents likely to make the team to bolster their defense led by Buffalo safety Jordan Poyer — and he drafted another three rookies featuring Penn State linebacker Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense is dealing with injuries at running back with Raheem Mostert out and De’Von Achane a game-time decision. The Dolphins have played 13 of their 18 games Under the Total when playing at home under head coach Mike McDaniel — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 6 of their 7 games played on a Thursday Under the Total in the McDermott era — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (103) and the Miami Dolphins (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-09-24 |
Jets v. 49ers UNDER 44 | | 19-32 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) begins anew after missing the playoffs for the 13th straight season with their 7-10 record last year. San Francisco (0-0) comes off their 25-22 loss in overtime against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York gets Aaron Rodgers back after he suffered a season-ending injury on the first Monday night last year. Multiple reports indicate he looked very sharp in training camp — but it might be too much to expect a 40-year-old coming off major leg surgery to retain his same mobility. I expect the Jets to lean heavily on running back Breece Hall and their outstanding defense to grind out games. They only scored 15.8 Points-Per-Game last season while ranking second-to-last in the NFL by generating just 268.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Jets’ defense remains elite after only giving up 209 PPG and 292.3 total YPG — both marks were third best in the league and they also ranked third in the NFL in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking and third in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total. It has been a noisy offseason for the 49ers. Running back Christian McCaffrey strained his Achilles early in training camp so he has not practiced much — and his health for this game remains a question. Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for the entire training camp demanding to renegotiate their contracts. While both stars eventually got their way in the last few days, they have not practiced much at all and may get limited action on the field tonight. As we witnessed last night, even the explosive Detroit Lions offense was sluggish last night in their opener despite playing at home against a defense with two rookies starting in the front seven (only 20 points in regulation!?!). The Niners’ offense looks primed to experience some rough patches as they get back in sync. And if Williams cannot anchor the offensive line, this team struggles as San Francisco has lost five straight games when Williams is not on the field for at least 50% of the snaps — and they averaged only 17.4 PPG in those games by scoring just 20, 19, 17, 17, and 14 points in those contests. The 49ers defense remains very good after allowing only 17.5 PPG last season which was the third-lowest mark in the league. There should be better cohesion on that side of the ball after some philosophical differences between head coach Kyle Shanahan and previous defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Nick Sorensen got promoted to run the defense. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in September.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams deployed their version of the four-corners offense in basketball last night by burning time off the clock when they had the ball last night — and I expect both teams to deploy similar strategies tonight. In Rodgers’ last full season in 2022 with Green Bay, they ranked tied for last (with the 49ers) in the NFL by averaging 31.0 seconds per play. San Francisco led the league last year by averaging 30.8 seconds per play. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-08-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 52 | Top | 20-26 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoff Round last season before losing on the road against the Lions by a 24-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Detroit (0-0) lost the next week in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expect the Lions to score their share of points tonight. They generated 399.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home last season which resulted in 29.9 Points-Per-Game. With almost everyone back on that side of the ball — including four of five starters on what might be the best offensive line in the NFL, the Lions will be one of the best offensive teams in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions in his last two seasons playing at home at Ford Field. Last year, Goff completed 70.1% of his passes at home and posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating. He averaged 280.0 passing YPG and 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. Compare those numbers to his stats on the road last year: He completed 64.8% of his passes and posted a 89.4 QBR while averaging 259.4 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have played 8 of their last 19 games Over the Total when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Lions now get a playoff rematch against a Rams team learning to live life without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Los Angeles also traded away middle linebacker Ernest Jones they were facing a looming expiring contract with him — and the organization does not believe in paying big money for linebackers. In their playoff showdown last January, Jones had nine tackles, two sacks, one tackle for loss, two hits on the quarterback, and one forced fumble. Head coach Sean McVay now has three rookies starting in their front seven: Florida State’s Jared Verse and Braden Fiske along with undrafted free agent linebacker Omar Speights from LSU. This is a rough Week One assignment. To compound matters, the Rams are depleted in their secondary with cornerbacks Darious Williams and Derion Kendrick on Injured Reserve and cornerback Cobie Durant hobbled with an injury. There are issues with the Rams’ offensive line that gave me pause as well — but right tackle Rob Havenstein who is listed as questionable looks to play which minimizes the loss of suspended left tackle Alaric Jackson. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford should be fine — and he will never be healthier than he in Week One. He has plenty of motivation in another return to Detroit to play against his former team. When Stafford had wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with running back Kyren Williams on the field, the Rams generated a whopping 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Los Angeles will move the ball in the air against this suspect Lions defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 247.4 passing YPG. Once again, Detroit rebuilt their secondary which included drafting two rookies in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. But it will take time for them to get up to speed against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. The Lions were last in the league by allowing 69 receptions of 20 or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and Detroit has played 15 of their last 17 opening weeks to the new season Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Detroit Lions (480). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-06-24 |
Packers v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 | | 29-34 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) finished 10-9 last season after their 24-21 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) finished 11-7 last year after their 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers in the NFC Wildcard Round of the playoffs. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This opening game involves two veteran head coach who should see significant improvement on the defensive side of the football after hiring new defensive coordinators who are immediate upgrades. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni was bullied by “special assistant” Matt Patricia into relieving Sean Desai of his playing calling duties late last season. And to no surprise, the defense did not improve when Patricia attempted to install his new system post-Thanksgiving. They ranked 30th in the league by allowing 25.2 Points-Per-Game — and the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics ranked their defense 29th in the NFL. The main culprit was their pass defense that ranked second-to-last by allowing 252.7 passing Yards-Per-Game and surrendering 31 touchdown passes. A pass rush that registered 70 sacks in their Super Bowl run only managed 43 sacks last year. Sirianni tapped Vic Fangio to run his defense this season — the 65-year-old is considered the architect of the two-high safety shell defense that is all the rage right now to limit big-play explosiveness in the modern pass-happy league. General manager Howie Roseman also addressed the embattled defensive secondary by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds of the NFL draft and resigning C.J. Gardner-Johnson who left the team two years ago to sign as a free agent in Detroit. On the other side of the ball, the offense may struggle to adapt to new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Quarterback Jalen Hurts described the offense as 95% new — and he did not play a snap in the preseason so rust is likely. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when favored by up to a touchdown. The Green Bay offense may also be rusty out of the gate since quarterback Jordan Love only threw two passes in the preseason. Head coach Matt LaFleur also dismissed defensive coordinator Joe Barry in an addition-by-subtraction move in the offseason and hired a veteran NFL secondary coach in Jeff Hafley who had been the head coach at Boston College. Hafley’s aggressive tactics and 4-3 schemes may be a better fit for his personnel. If edge rusher Rashon Gary and cornerback Jaire Alexander can regain their previous form after down seasons, the Packers defense could take a big step up. Their defensive line is the unit’s strength with plenty of depth. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 42 to 51-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect both offenses will be sluggish in their execution playing in Brazil in this opener after getting very little action in the preseason exhibition games. These two teams have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against each other — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing against each other away from Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Friday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (453) and the Philadelphia Eagles (454). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
09-05-24 |
Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | | 20-27 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) looks to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at home against the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 4.5-point underdog on January 28th. Kansas City (0-0) begins their quest for a three-peat after their 25-22 victory in overtime against San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog in the Super Bowl last February.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 22 points that the 49ers scored against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl was just the third time all season that they had given up more than 21 points — and the most points they gave up all season was the 27 points that Green Bay scored against them at Lambeau Field in December. They held seven of their last nine opponents last season to 20 or fewer points. The Chiefs won the title last year on the strength of their defense that ranked second in the league by allowing only 17.3 Points-Per-Game and 289.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their four playoff opponents to just 15.8 PPG. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo lost cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Wille Gay in the offseason but replacements exist from the great work general manager Brett Veach has done stocking the roster with talent — especially from his spectacular draft two seasons ago. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City scored 21 points or less in 11 of their games. Veach addressed that unit in the offseason by signing Marquise Brown from Arizona and trading up to draft Xavier Worthy from Texas in the first round. In theory, the deep threat both players offer will open things up — but Brown remains out from the injury he suffered in the opening week of the preseason. Worthy is an intriguing prospect — but it is unlikely the rookie will unlock this offense by himself in Week One. The Chiefs have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning their previous game on the road. And while Kansas City closed out last season on a six-game winning streak, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when riding a winning streak of four or more games. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 9 games at home, they have played 8 of these games Under the Total. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when Spagnuolo had two or more weeks to prepare for their opponent. Spags may simply have Jackson’s number. Jackson has only completed 55.7% of his passes against the Chiefs in his career while averaging only 204.4 passing YPG. He has five touchdown passes but three interceptions — and his Passer Rating against them is only 78.1. Three starters are gone on the offensive line — and none of them were 30-year-old left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is regressing quickly from his 2019 All-Pro season after battling injuries for years. The Ravens defense does have nine starters back from their unit that led the NFL by giving up only 16.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were second in the league in Expected Points Allowed Per Play. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the Ravens’ last 14 games against fellow AFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total against Baltimore. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-11-24 |
49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 |
Win | 100 | 164 h 12 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams. They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT: I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.
BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).
Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).
Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.
BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:
(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.
(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.
Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-28-24 |
Lions v. 49ers OVER 51 | | 31-34 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has given up at least 384 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after giving up 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two or more games in a row at home. The Lions have averaged 27.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games away from home — and center Frank Ragnow will play in this game despite dealing with several injuries. San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel will also take the field in this game. He got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. The 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco generated 416.6 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home resulting in 26.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-28-24 |
Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 |
Loss | -105 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-21-24 |
Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.
FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 | Top | 21-24 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-15-24 |
Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 9-32 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-15-24 |
Steelers v. Bills UNDER 39 | Top | 17-31 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 0 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-14-24 |
Rams v. Lions OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-24 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-14-24 |
Packers v. Cowboys OVER 49.5 | | 48-32 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they generated 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have also played 6 straight Overs at home after a double-digit victory. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games. Their offense has generated 432 and 470 yards in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Packers have only given up 19 combined points in their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total. And while Dallas averages only 0.9 turnovers per game, Green Bay has played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against opponents who do not average more than one turnover per game. Unfortunately for Green Bay, their secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 8* NFL Green Bay-Dallas Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-13-24 |
Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 | Top | 7-26 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-07-24 |
Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | | 21-14 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing vUnder the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by six points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Buffalo has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where their 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average is -2.3 PPG below their season average. The Bills have played 12 of their last 16 games — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last contest. And while they gave up 491 yards of offense last week against the Ravens, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Miami offense is undermanned tonight with both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle not expecting to play. But the Dolphins' defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins lost on the road to the Bills by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a loss by 14 or more points to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-06-24 |
Texans v. Colts UNDER 47.5 | | 23-19 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game and they have not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in four straight contests. The Texans have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in four games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 or more points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Colts stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also played 26 of their last 39 home games Under the Total against opponents who are not giving up more than 90 rushing Yards-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their mind. The Texans have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-31-23 |
Packers v. Vikings OVER 42 | Top | 33-10 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-30-23 |
Lions v. Cowboys OVER 52 | | 19-20 |
Loss | -115 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 389 yards against the Vikings last week with the offensive line playing better together now that center Frank Ragnow is healthy again. But Detroit gave up 390 yards to the Vikings offense in the victory. The Lions go back on the road where they are allowing 25.3 PPG — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home. But Detroit has rushed for at least 140 yards in five straight games behind their two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs — and three of those games were on the road. The Cowboys can be run on as the Buffalo Bills demonstrated by gouging them for 266 yards on 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry two weeks ago. The Lions have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a victory on the road over a divisional rival. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. And in their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher, Detroit has played 4 of these games Over the Total. The Lions are completing 67.7% of their passes this season — and the Cowboys have played 26 of their last 38 home games in the second half of the season Over the Total against opponents who are completing 64% or more of their passes. Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. They have been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when favored. Dallas has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Lions have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-28-23 |
Jets v. Browns UNDER 36.5 | | 20-37 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). THE SITUATION: New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland held the Texans to just 250 total yards last week — a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Browns return home where they have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. The Browns have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks 14-17 of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-25-23 |
Ravens v. 49ers OVER 45.5 | | 33-19 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ravens generated 396 yards of offense last week but did not push things with the scoreboard with them dominating the Jaguars. Baltimore has scored 31 or more points in six of their last eight games — and they are scoring 27.4 Points-Per-Game. In Lamar Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top five in total defense, the Ravens are averaging more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Ravens have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Despite leading the NFL in scoring defense, Baltimore can get embroiled in shootouts. Cleveland scored 33 points against them in their upset victory that saw 64 combined points scored and the Los Angeles Rams scored 31 points against them two weeks ago in the Ravens win that had 68 combined points scored. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog. San Francisco has scored 27 or more points in six straight games. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory when they covered a double-digit point spread win. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — far above their 5.2 YPP defensive average for the season. The 49ers return home where have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when the favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-25-23 |
Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 42 | | 20-14 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 21 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 63-21 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas City (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 27-17 victory at New England as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders' unlikely offensive explosion was due primarily to the Chargers lack of focus in head coach Brandon Staley’s final game with the team — and their +5 net turnover margin helped put them in scoring position (and they scored a defensive touchdown on an interception). Las Vegas only gained 378 total yards in the game. They had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games and six of their last seven before that outburst on Thursday night. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. While the offense has been mostly subpar with rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, the Las Vegas defense has been much better since Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach. Under his leadership, the Raiders are holding their opponents to 15.5 Ppints-Per-Game after giving up more than 24 PPG under previous head coach Josh McDaniels. Now Las Vegas goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City held the Patriots to just 206 total yards last week in their 10-point victory. The Chiefs have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 21 points. But it is the offense that has been the bigger surprise for the defending Super Bowl champions as they have not scored more than 21 points in five of their last seven contests. Tight end Travis Kelce is beginning to show his age and the wide receiver corps has not seen a reliable second option emerge. Head coach Andy Reid is so fed up with Kadarius Toney’s mistakes that he did not even practice this week — and he is not active for this game. Rookie Rashee Rice has shown flashes — but this team would be much better off if he was the third option rather than the second. Kansas City has not rushed for more than 82 yards in two straight games as well — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight Unders after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.8 total YPG resulting in just 16.2 PPG. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-24-23 |
Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 37.5 | | 26-23 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). THE SITUATION: New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos gave up 185 rushing yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Denver has covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games including four of these last five circumstances. Denver generated only 297.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. But their defense is holding their opponents to 330.9 total YPG resulting in 20.1 PPG for these foes. Now they host a Patriots offense decimated by injuries. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns. Bailey Zappe remains their starting quarterback with Mac Jones permanently benched. Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. As it is, the Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: We have gotten burned with our Under plays lately — but following the evidence remains the best long-term approach for success. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-23-23 |
Bills v. Chargers UNDER 45 | | 24-22 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Since replacing fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, new OC Joe Brady has committed to running the ball more. In the Bills' last five games, they have rushed for 879 yards for a 176 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. This has helped the Bills' defense as they have held their last four opponents to 17.5 Points-Per-Game. They limited the Cowboys to just 195 total yards last week. Now they go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total — and they have played 38 of their last 59 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Additionally, Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games overall Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 12 road games against AFC opponents, the Bills have played 10 of those games Under the Total. Across the sidelines, Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed Las Vegas to generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. The defense was not really the problem last week as the Raiders only generated 378 total yards — it was their -5 net turnover margin that gave Las Vegas short fields as they raced out to a 42-0 halftime lead. The Chargers return home where they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Under the Total after a game where they posted a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-23-23 |
Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 38.5 | Top | 11-34 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-21-23 |
Saints v. Rams UNDER 46 | Top | 22-30 |
Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-18-23 |
Eagles v. Seahawks UNDER 48 | | 17-20 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given both of these quarterback situations, I expect both of these teams to attempt to impose their physicality by running the football and controlling the line of scrimmage. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Philadelphia defense needs help after allowing 451.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Head coach Nick Sirianni has shaken things up by moving defensive coordinator Sean Desai up to the booth to be able to observe the field better. It’s unclear if Matt Patricia will now be calling the plays or if he will be on the sidelines to relay the defensive play calls to the defense. At the very least, I suspect the Eagles' defense to shake some things up tonight. Not playing the Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas offenses will certainly help as Sirianni’s group has gone through a gauntlet recently. Philly stays on the road where they have played 15 of their last 25 road games Under the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two games. The Seahawks surrendered 354 passing yards last week to the 49ers — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. Seattle returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-17-23 |
Ravens v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | Top | 23-7 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-16-23 |
Broncos v. Lions UNDER 48.5 | | 17-42 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday. Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a win by double-digits. The Broncos have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Denver has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have held their last three opponents to just 301.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 13.7 Points-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lions are only scoring 22.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they return home where they are holding their opponents to 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 22.7 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a team from the AFC. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-14-23 |
Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 35 | | 21-63 |
Loss | -109 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers only managed 283 total yards last week in their loss to the Broncos. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last five contests, they have then played 9 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers have played four straight Unders — but they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons — and he will have a limited supporting cast tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams due to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Chargers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Las Vegas only managed 202 total yards last week in their shutout loss — but they did hold the Vikings to just 231 total yards. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. And while they endured a -3 net turnover margin last week, they have played 6 straight Unders after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Head coach Antonio Pierce has not named his starting quarterback tonight although the expectation is that it will remain rookie Aidan O’Connell — but the offense may be without running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Davante Adams who are both listed as questionable. The Raiders stay at home on the short week — and their defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. The Chargers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-11-23 |
Titans v. Dolphins UNDER 47 | | 28-27 |
Loss | -105 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (129) and the Miami Dolphins (130). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-28 loss in overtime at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (9-3) has won three straight games after their 45-15 victory at Washington as a 9-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: In a losing effort, quarterback Will Levis completed only 16 of 33 passes for 224 yards. After making a big splash in his opening game by throwing four touchdown passes against Atlanta, Levis has only three touchdown passes in his last five games. Behind a porous offensive line, Levis has been sacked 20 times which is the third most in the NFL during that span. I don’t see the Titans putting up many points against what is a surging Dolphins defense. Tennessee had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games before last week — and they still have not scored more than 17 points in six of their last eight contests. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while their game with the Colts finished Over the Total, they have played 12 of their 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Tennessee run defense has played better lately as they have not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in two straight games and three of their last four contests — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in two or more games in a row. The Titans outrushed the Colts by +122 net rushing yards — and they have played 7 straight Unders after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more rushing yards. And while they gave up 300 passing yards to Indianapolis, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are generating only 249.1 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 12.3 Points-Per-Game. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the last four weeks of the season under head coach Mike Vrabel. While Miami’s offensive attack gets most of the attention, it is the play of their defense that has them in contention to claim the top seed in the AFC playoff race. The Dolphins have responded to first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio — and they have been much better since getting cornerback Jalen Ramsey back from injury. Miami has held their last three opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those teams scoring more than 15 points. They have not allowed more than 21 points in five straight games — and they have held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 21 points after their debacle against Buffalo where they gave up 48 points. The Dolphins have scored 79 combined points in their last two games — but they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. Teams rarely put up big numbers against a Vrabel-coached team (and the Colts scored one of their touchdowns on a blocked punt on special teams). The Titans have held nine of their 12 opponents to 27 or fewer points — and they have held eight of their opponents to no more than 24 points. Miami has played 9 of their 13 home games Under the Total with Mike McDaniel as their head coach — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have been favored by double-digits four times under McDaniel — and 3 of those games finished Under the Total. Miami has also played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (129) and the Miami Dolphins (130). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-11-23 |
Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 | Top | 22-24 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-10-23 |
Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 53 | | 13-33 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (127) and the Dallas Cowboys (128). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Philadelphia’s defense should play better tonight after allowing the 49ers to generate 8.56 Yards-Per-Play en route to their 456 yards of offense. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while the Eagles have played two straight high-scoring games where at least 61 combined points were scored, they have then played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total after two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games — and they have scored at least 33 points during that span. But the Cowboys have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Dallas defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 15.8 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has revenge on their mind from their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th in a game where they held the Eagles to under 300 yards of offense — and in their three previous opportunities in the last three years to avenge a loss where they allowed 28 or more points, all 3 of those games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (127) and the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-10-23 |
Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45 | | 24-7 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 22-17 loss at Houston as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-7) ended their three-game losing streak with their 6-0 victory at New England as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos only gained 282 total yards last week with head coach Sean Payton continuing to deploy his Russell Wilson “fix” by asking him to not pass the football — he only had 26 pass attempts last week but still threw three interceptions. After starting the season by throwing 32 or more times in four of his five games. Wilson has not thrown more than 29 passes in six of his last seven games with Payton trying to deploy a ball-control offense to help his defense (and not ask too much of Wilson). Denver is holding their last seven opponents to 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Eight, the Broncos' defense leads the NFL with 15 takeaways — and they are second in the league with an Opponent’ Third Down Success Rate of 29.0 and an Opponents’ Passer Rating of 73.9. But Denver is generating only 290.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are averaging just 290.6 total YPG on the road. The Broncos game with the Texans finished Under the 47-point Total for that game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Furthermore, the Broncos have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 27 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, Denver has played 18 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley seems to be using his final weeks as the Chargers head coach by finally trying to do things to help his defense — perhaps with the hopes that he can get a job in the league again as a defensive coordinator. Unfortunately for quarterback Justin Herbert, he has done so by neutering the offensive side of the ball. Los Angeles managed only 241 total yards en route to their six points against the Patriots last week. The Chargers are generating only 304.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 12.0 PPG. But they have held their last three opponents to 338.3 total YPG and 14.3 PPG. Injuries have played a role in slowing down the offense. The offensive line has struggled without center Corey Linsley. Running back Austin Ekeler seems to have lost a step — and Staley has even gone so far as to open up the lead-back role into an open competition with Joshua Kelley. The injuries to wide receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have left Herbert without a viable second option to Keenan Allen — and rookie Quentin Johnston appears to be a bust as he struggles with the playbook and route running. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have played 32 of their last 45 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to three points.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Broncos have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank. |