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At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (102). THE SITUATION: New England (2-10) has lost five games in a row after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Just an ugly matchup between two offenses stuck in the 20th century relying on backup quarterbacks — and all of this on a short week. The small Total would even be considered quite low for a preseason game — but with both of these defenses being very good, there is a good chance that at least one of these teams will not reach double-digits. The Steelers' defense has been outstanding this season — after holding Arizona to just 282 total yards last week, they have held their last three opponents to just 254.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has held eight of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less. But they have scored 16 points or less in three straight games — and they are generating only 287.3 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They only scored three points in the first half last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. And while Pittsburgh has played three straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They face a woeful Patriots offense that has not scored more than seven points in three straight games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in 11 straight contests. New England has failed to score more than seven points five times this season. The offensive line has struggled. The wide receiver room lacks speed. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be the best playmaker on offense but he is out with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver Demario Douglas is also out. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and asking him to be the bell cow back on a short week is ambitious. Mac Jones deserved getting benched — but Bailey Zappe is not in a position to do much better. His decent numbers last season were helped by a soft slate of defenses he was fortunate to face. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He is averaging a mere 4.7 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has a QBR of 50.2. He passed for only 141 yards last week despite playing the entire game — and New England has played 6 straight Unders after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. On the road, the Patriots are generating only 285.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.8 PPG. But the New England defense continues to play well despite all this. They have held their last three opponents to 10 points or less — and those opponents are generating just 241.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They have played four straight Unders coming into this game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. And in their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Steelers have played 16 of their last 24 games at home Under the Total including five of their seven home games this season. 10* NFL New England-Pittsburgh Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (473) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-3) has won two straight games after their 24-21 victory as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals offense simply takes a big without the injured Joe Burrow under center. They are scoring only 15 Points-Per-Game in their last eight games without Burrow as their starting quarterback. With Jake Browning under center, Cincinnati only registered ten first downs and just 222 total yards of offense. The lack of a credible ground game was always going to be a problem for this team in attempting to make a Super Bowl run this year. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step (or two) — he is generating only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry this season after posting that same number last year. The offense misses Samaje Perine who they did not resign in the offseason — and rookie Chase Brown has not been able to take his place as a third down back or even a change-of-pace back (although he may get opportunities tonight, out of desperation). Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 5 straight Unders after losing two or more games in a row. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Cincinnati defense allowed 421 yards last week — but they did not break as they held the Steelers to only those 16 points. They have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after getting outgained by -150 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Bengals have allowed at least 405 yards in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have won four of their last five games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Jaguars generated 6.54 Yarsds-Per-Play against the Texans — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. There is a perception regarding how good Trevor Lawrence is already — and he may develop into an elite quarterback. But he has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last four weeks. In their last three games, Jacksonville has scored only 20.3 PPG. And in their five games at home, they are generating just 303.6 total YPG which is resulting in only 20.0 PPG. The Jaguars have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on a grass field. The Bengals have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Lastly, Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Jacksonville ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (473) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Green Bay Packers (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-17 victory at Las Vegas as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (5-6) has won three of their last four games after their 29-22 upset win against Detroit as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring 31 points last week against the Raiders, the Chiefs are scoring only 19.5 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. Kansas City is generating only 339.2 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road which is resulting in 21.3 PPG. The lack of emergence of a number one wide receiver is apparent. Rookie Rashee Rice did catch eight balls last week against Las Vegas — but the rookie had not been targeted more than six times in his previous seven games. The bigger story is the slow decline of Travis Kelce’s productivity. No, it has done nothing to do with his Hollywood business relationship with What’s Her Name — but that arrangement just in time for his appearance on about a half dozen television commercials and her concert movie does indicate that the 34-year-old is thinking about life after football. He’s slowing down — and the fact that defenses can double-team him without getting burned elsewhere on the field is hurting this offensive attack. But the Kansas City defense has become outstanding as they are holding their opponents to 290.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 16.5 PPG. The Chiefs have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 27 games as a favorite, they have played 18 of these games Under the Total. Green Bay has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after an upset victory against an NFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory against a divisional rival as an underdog getting six or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Packers have pulled off two straight upset victories after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers at home two weeks ago — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Green Bay has won the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Despite those victories, the Packers are scoring only 23.7 PPG in their last three contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are generating just 325.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.2 PPG. But the Green Bay defense holds their guests to just 316.0 total YPG which is only resulting in 19.6 PPG. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Green Bay Packers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (459) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (460). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-10) has lost four games in a row after their 17-10 loss at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-7) has lost two games in a row and six of their last seven after a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers managed only 258 total yards last week in their loss against the Titans — and that was the final straw for head coach Frank Reich who was fired earlier in the week. Bill Walsh calling the plays would not make a dramatic difference for this Carolina offense that lacks playmakers. They have scored only 12.5 Points-Per-Game in their last four contests. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. And in their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Carolina is playing good defense lately — they have held their last three opponents 290.0 total YPG which has resulted in only 22.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Tampa Bay managed only 298 total yards last week in their last against the Colts. Head coach Todd Bowles was as angry as he gets after the game regarding some of the fundamental play from his players on defense as they gave up 394 total yards in that game. Look for that to get cleaned up for this contest. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are scoring only 15.4 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. The Buccaneers have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total against the NFC. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (459) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION:  Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th. Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens offense is getting most of the attention for head coach John Harbaugh’s team after they scored at least 31 points in their fifth straight game — but the play of the Baltimore defense deserves more attention. They held the Bengals to just 272 yards last week in their 14-point victory. The Ravens are holding their opponents to just 273.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.1 Points-Per-Game — and their defense has been stingy on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 256.0 total YPG and 16.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after beating an AFC North rival. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Ravens have played 41 of their last 63 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. Baltimore has played two straight Overs with both those contests seeing 54 or more combined points — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they are averaging -31.7 fewer YPG than their season average — and that is resulting in them scoring -3.8 fewer PPG away from home. To compound matters, Lamar Jackson will be without his favorite target Mark Andrews after he suffered an ankle injury last week that will keep him out for an extended period. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total as a favorite in general. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Chargers have covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Los Angeles did generate 6.57 Yards-Per-Play against the Packers last week — but they have then played 35 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Ravens have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite back on November 12th. Atlanta (4-6) suffered their third straight upset loss in their 25-23 loss at Arizona as a 2-point underdog on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only managed 280 yards of offense against the Vikings' defense in their last game. Quarterback Derek Carr got knocked out of that contest — but he has cleared the concussion protocol and will play in this game. New Orleans only managed a field goal in the first half of that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They only rushed for 65 yards as well against Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. The Saints have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 298.5 total Yards-Per-Game which results in their home hosts scoring 18.2 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Their loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago was preceded by a 31-28 loss at home to Minnesota — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by three points or less. The Falcons return home where they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 31-19 upset loss at home against the New York Giants as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (7-3) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 33-10 victory at Carolina as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Commanders generated 403 yards of offense last week — but it was six turnovers that did them in. Despite their losing run, the Washington offense is beginning to click under first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy. In their last three games, the Commanders are generating 397.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are scoring a healthy 24.0  Points-Per-Game in their last four games despite only reaching 19 points last week. But the defense has been a disaster for Washington. They rank last in the NFL by allowing 27.7 PPG — and they have given up 29 or more points in three of their last four contests. They are 29th in the league by giving up 372.8 YPG — and that mark rises to 398.0 YPG when they are playing on the road. The biggest problem has been their secondary as the Commanders are giving up 259 passing YPG which is the third most in the NFL. Washington has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with six days or less of rest. And while the Cowboys average 32:31 minutes per game in Time of Possession, the Commanders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who average 32 or more minutes per game with the football. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Cowboys are scoring 39.0 PPG in their last four games while reaching at least 33 points in three of those games. Quarterback Dak Prescott has produced a Passer Rating of 119 in his last five contests. The Dallas defense has held their last three opponents to just 217.0 total YPG in their last three games — but they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 225.0 or fewer YPG. The Cowboys have benefited from facing a slate of mediocre quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (twice), Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Joshua Dobbs (with Arizona), and Zac Wilson. Sam Howell may remind everyone about the significant loss which was the season-ending injury to cornerback Trevor Diggs. Dallas returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20  home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Washington-Dallas CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Broncos have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG at home where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite of three points or loss. Minnesota followed up their upset victory on the road against Atlanta with their upset win at home against the Saints last week. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. And while they raced out to a 24-3 halftime lead last week, they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 21 or more points in their last contest. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 8 straight Unders from Weeks 10 through 13. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 20-6 loss at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored only 22 combined points in their last two games with rookie Will Levis under center. They gained only 209 total yards last week against the Buccaneers defense. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while they covered the point spread only once in their last five games, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars scored their lone field goal in the first half last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half in the previous game. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. A -4 net turnover margin held Jacksonville back last week — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in games played in November — and Tennessee has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION:  Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th. Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 317 total yards last week on the road against the Bengals. Their defense allowed 397 total yards to Cincinnati who averaged 7.49 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They did limit the Bengals to just 54 rushing yards — and they have played 9 of their last 14 Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Buffalo’s run defense is playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have not given up more than 96 rushing yards in three straight games. This run defense will be critical in slowing down the Broncos offense that has become run-first to compensate for the limitations of Russell Wilson at this point in his career. Wilson only attempted 19 passes against the Chiefs while running the ball 40 times. Denver has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit upset win as an underdog getting six or more points. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a double-digit victory. The Broncos' focus on running the ball is helping their defense as well as they have not given up more than 19 points in their last three games. All three of those games finished Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. The Broncos have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13 — and 6 of the last 8 games between these teams in Buffalo have finished Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-16 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on November 2nd. Tampa Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 39-37 loss at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans only rushed for 105 yards against the Steelers' defense last week with the offense relying on the arm of rookie quarterback Will Levis who passed for 262 yards. With this being his third NFL start, the initial book is being written on the former Kentucky QB — so he will likely experience some growing pains sooner rather than later as opposing defensive coaches discover his tendencies and weaknesses. Tennessee has not scored more than 16 points in five of their eight games this year — and they have failed to score more than 16 points in three of their last four contests. The Titans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. Additionally, Tennessee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tampa Bay had not scored more than 18 points in three straight games before exploding for their highest-scoring output of the season. But the Buccaneers got torched by C.J. Stroud who broke a rookie quarterback passing record with 443 passing yards. Head coach Todd Bowles was embarrassed by the play of his defense — and he certainly worked his team and coaching staff hard this week to take care of business against another first-year QB this afternoon. Tampa Bay has a solid defense still that has held five of their opponents to 20 points or less. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These Totals set in the 30s are dangerous — like the trouble that may triggered by uttering “Beetlejuice”, I fear even mentioning the two other units that can score touchdowns besides the offense. A non-offensive touchdown puts these Unders at severe risk — but the betting public knows that too. Frankly, these teams play a lot of Overs — and I considered the Over strongly. But the reason why these teams are playing so many higher-scoring games is because they have played some of the better offenses in the league. Both of these teams are improving on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina held the Texans to only 229 total yards of offense two weeks ago — just before C.J. Stroud then set a rookie record for passing yards last week when he torched a good Tampa Bay defense for 470 passing yards. They then held the Colts to just 198 total yards — but two Bryce Young interceptions were returned for touchdowns (not going to say Beetlejuice) in that contest to launch Indianapolis to 28 points. Young only had four interceptions going into that game — and the Panthers have just 11 turnovers on the season. Expect head coach Frank Reich to dial up a conservative game plan like he did in their 15-13 win against Houston. Carolina trailed by a 20-3 score at halftime against Indy — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Carolina offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 97 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. It was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance — but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is limiting his passes down the field and opponents are getting a book on him now (and not getting fooled by an opening bomb in their first series as if that suggests the playbook is opening up). Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. Al Michaels will be especially grumpy that his immense talent is wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage) — but he will cheer up when discovering he will be early for his dinner reservations at Gene and Georgetti’s as this is going to be a quick game with fewer offensive possessions. The Bears have played 32 of their last 53 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on Thursday nights. 20* NFL Carolina-Chicago Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills are only averaging 21.0 Points-Per-Game since Week Five — and quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a bum shoulder going into this game. Allen did pass for 324 yards in the game — but his team has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Buffalo’s defense stepped up last week by holding the Buccaneers to just 302 total yards — and Tampa Bay only got to 18 points from a fortunate fourth down play late in that game (that ruined our Bills play against the spread). While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bills have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total during Weeks Five through Nine. Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Burrow’s return to full health has helped take some pressure off the Cincinnati defense — they have held their last three opponents to 16.7 PPG. The Bengals return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Toal with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the Total set in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when hosting the Bills. 20* NFL Cincinnati-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Miami (6-2) has won three of their last four games after their 31-17 victory against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (6-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 24-9 loss at Denver as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes was under the weather last week which goes a long way to explain why he completed only 24 of 38 passes for 241 yards and the Chiefs managed to score only nine points against the Broncos' defense that was torched by the Dolphins for 70 points. But the Kansas City offense has not been as efficient this season even before that game. Besides tight end Travis Kelce, the wide receiving corps has not been reliable since they are dropping too many passes in a trend that started in their opening game against Detroit. The Chiefs have scored 23 or fewer points in five of their eight games. Look for Kansas City to attempt to get their running game going to slow down the Miami offense and keep them off the field after failing to rush for 96 yards in four straight games. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played four of their last five games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Kansas City can afford to slow this game down because they have the best defensive unit in the Patrick Mahomes era. They have not allowed more than 24 points all season — and they have held six of their eight opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now housed at FTN) rank the Chiefs' defense as the fifth best in the league. They rank second in the league by holding their opponents to just 287.8 Yards-Per-Game. They held the Broncos to just 87 passing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Kansas City also ranks second in the league in sacks — and pressure on the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa is the way to slow down the Miami offense. Tagovailoa has only won once in his seven games in the NFL when sacked four or more times. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike McDaniel leans heavily on the running game against this Chiefs defense playing without injured linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. The Dolphins have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They held the Patriots to just 141 passing yards last week — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Miami defense will be ready for this showdown with this being the healthiest they have been on that side of the ball all season. It will be interesting to see what defensive coordinator Vic Fangio dials up — especially with a healthy cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins have held five of their eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. Miami has played  13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Frankfurt weather may not agree with those expecting a shootout in this game — the temperature is in the 50s but with winds at 16 miles per hour and a good chance of some rain (not great for the Chiefs' already slippery hands). The Dolphins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on grass. 10* NFL Miami-Kansas City Germany O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans will be sending out a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis tonight. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. Levis will be playing against the best defense he faced in this Steelers unit led by T.J. Watt. The Titans only manage to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. The Titans have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. Schematically, the Steelers' offense is simply not difficult to defend. The Pittsburgh defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Pittsburgh stays at home where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is listed in the 35.5-42 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-1) comes off a 31-17 win against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (3-4) has lost four of their last five contests after their 14-7 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only managed to gain 273 yards against the Giants’ defense last week. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Washington went into halftime of that game without a point and trailing by 14 points — and they have then played 41 of their last 65 games Under the Total after going into halftime trailing by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Washington has allowed 403.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. Their defense is getting to the quarterback — they have registered at least three sacks in four straight games. The Commanders return home where they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 41 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia held the explosive Dolphins offense to just 244 total yards last week. They have not allowed more than 249 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two or more games in a row. The Eagles have also played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 1st with Philadelphia winning by a 34-31 score — and the Commanders have played 27 of their last 42 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries and losing the time of possession battle played a significant role in the 49ers' upset loss last week with both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey being knocked out of that game against the Browns. Samuel is out tonight — but McCaffrey is expected to play. San Francisco’s offense was only on the field for 26:57 minutes in that contest — but that unit should win the time of possession battle tonight against a Vikings team that does not run the ball. The 49ers had scored at least 30 points in five straight games before confronting the tough Cleveland defense that may be the best in the NFL. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total between Week Five through Week Nine. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Minnesota only rushed for 46 yards last week after rushing for 70 yards the previous week in their loss to Kansas City. They have not run the ball more than 24 times in any game this season — and they have rushed the ball 18 times or less in three of their games. Overall, they are averaging only 19 rushing attempts per game which is translating to their offense being on the field for only 26:14 minutes per game — and that means both teams will likely have more possessions in this game. The Vikings have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight contests. Minnesota’s offense has scored at least 17 points all their games this season — and wide receiver K.J. Osborn has played well stepping up for the injured Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings are surrendering 25.0 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 7 straight games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami flexed their muscles on both sides of the ball last week as they gained 444 yards en route to their 41 points while holding the Panthers to just 296 yards of offense. The Dolphins have played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win at home by 21 or more points. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points. Miami has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Dolphins won their previous game by a 31-16 score at home against the New York Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by 14 or points. Turnovers have been an issue for this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Philadelphia has played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Eagles have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philly has held their last two opponents to 244 and 239 total yards — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after holding two straight opponents to no more than 250 total yards.

FINAL TAKE: The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami scored 24 and 20 points in their games at New England and Buffalo this season — with their other four games either at home or in sunny Los Angeles in early September. The Eagles will certainly get their ground game going to burn the clock and keep the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 60 home games Under the Total played in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense last week against the Colts — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. The Jaguars managed only 148 net passing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell this season — they rank eighth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones is also out for this game due to injury. New Orleans held the Texans to just 297 yards last week in their loss. After holding their final ten opponents last season to just 14.5 PPG, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. The Saints have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dallas defense will have something to prove tonight after getting shredded by the 49ers who gained 421 yards against them. The Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while the 49ers generated 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them, they have then played 10 straight games Under the Total on the road after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. They go back on the road where they are only generating 292.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 22.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank just 20th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed only 13 of 24 passes for just 167 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week — but they held the Raiders to just 264 total yards. The Chargers have played 58 of their last 96 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while Dallas scores 26.8 PPG, Los Angeles has played 47 of their last 74 home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Furthermore, the Chargers have played all 3 of their games on Monday Night Football Under the Total under head coach Brandon Staley.

FINAL TAKE: One of the subplots of this game will be Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy versus his former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays for Los Angeles. McCarthy took over the play-calling for Moore because he wanted more emphasis on the running game — so expect that to happen tonight since it will keep  Herbert off the field. (and maybe Moore rebels by running the ball more tonight as well with Austin Ekeler healthy again). As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* NFL Dallas-LA Chargers ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday. Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills should make a statement with their defense tonight. That got embarrassed last week in their loss to the Jaguars who gained 474 yards against them. Despite that yardage, Buffalo still ranks fifth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and now they have           Von Miller back from injury to bolster their pass rush. The Bills have held two of their opponents to just three and ten points. They held their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game last year which was the second-lowest mark in the league. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while Josh Allen led the offense to 388 total yards last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 375 or more yards in their last contest. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total between Weeks Five through Nine — and the Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Weeks Five through Nine. New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Buffalo has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. 20* NFL NY Giants-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset loss at Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Turnovers did the Ravens in last week as they turned the ball over three times and endured a -2 net turnover margin. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Ravens have not allowed more than 93 rushing yards in their last two contests — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This Baltimore defense has been outstanding since they acquired linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago at the trade deadline last season. They are second in the NFL this season by allowing only 15.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are also second in the league by giving up 266.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. They lead the NFL in passing YPG allowed — and they are fourth in the league in touchdowns allowed per Opponent Red Zone Trip. Their 18 sacks are the second most in the NFL. Using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders, the Ravens have the second-best defense. But they are only scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game this season with the offensive production dropping a bit this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — although wide receiver drops are not helping the cause. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have played three straight Unders — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. And while the Titans allowed the Colts to average 7.15 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP. Tennessee is only allowing 18.6 PPG this season — their problems are on the other side of the ball. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has only two touchdown passes this season — he is averaging a touchdown pass every 71 throws. Running back Derrick Henry has only one game where he rushed for more than 100 yards. Wide receiver Treylon Burks remains out with a knee injury. This is an offense that lacks young playmakers to complement their aging veterans. They are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 293.6 YPG. The Titans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Baltimore has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee London Calling O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Green Bay dug themselves a big hole last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 27-3 score. The Packers have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 33 of their last 51 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Green Bay is struggling with their running game after failing to rush for more than 95 yards in a game this season. With Aaron Jones declared out for tonight’s game, the Packers will likely rely on their passing game which will lengthen the game. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. Las Vegas will have Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams on the field tonight with the quarterback clearing the concussion protocol and the wide receiver able to play with his shoulder issue. Garoppolo missed the game against the Chargers — and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell demonstrated that he is not ready for NFL competition despite his nice preseason as the offense only gained 264 total yards. The Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by seven points or less against an AFC West rival. And while they have not scored more than seven points in the first half in two straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. And while Las Vegas has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 27-3 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 29-23 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last ten games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They held the Bengals to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 36 road games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while the Colts allowed the Rams to average 6.14 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total listed in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8*  NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-4) has lost their first four games this season after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Washington has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. The Commanders did allow the Eagles to generate 6.48 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average 6.0 or more YPP. The offense will likely be undermanned tonight with wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson both questionable with injuries. Expect the Washington game plan to be to control the line of scrimmage with Brian Robinson running the ball and burning time on the clock. The Commanders have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. Chicago enjoyed their best offensive game of the season after putting up 471 yards up against the dreadful Broncos defense fresh off giving up 70 points to Miami the previous week. So while the Bears generated 7.14 YPP, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. The Bears defense is nothing to write home about either after giving up 401.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Washington head coach Ron Rivera prefers lower-scoring games where his offense can control the clock to keep his defense fresh — the Commanders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Chicago-Washington Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (279) and the New York Giants (280). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 37-27 win against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) comes off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have scored 37 points in two straight contests — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or points in two straight contests. The Seahawks defense has underachieved this season after allowing at least 27 points in all three of their games — but they get back Jamal Adams tonight after missing almost all of last season with the knee injury he suffered in Week One. He will immediately improve their run defense — and he will probably be assigned to rush the quarterback in big nickel schemes with two other safeties on the field. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 39 of their last 61 road games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have also played 49 of their last 82 road games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have not covered the point spread in all three of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. After scoring only 14.3 PPG this season, injuries are making any improvement on that side of the field nearly impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley remains out with his high ankle sprain. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a hamstring injury. They return home where they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, New York has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (279) and the New York Giants (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 23-18 upset loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (1-2) won their first game of the season in a 28-24 upset victory at Minnesota as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders will be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who suffered a concussion late in the game against the Steelers. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will be under center for head coach Josh McDaniels — and while the former Purdue quarterback look good in the preseason, he will be introduced to non-vanilla defenses and first-string players this afternoon. Even with Garoppoli, they have not scored more than 18 points in any of their games this season. The Raiders have played a decisive 46 of their last 72 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while they committed three turnovers last week from Garoppolo interceptions, they have then played straight Unders after a game where they had three or more turnovers. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 54 of their last 85 home games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Justin Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards in the victory — and the Chargers have played 22 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after playing a game where they passed for at least 350 yards.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 3 of their last 4 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the Chargers home field. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 25-11 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 18-17 upset loss at Green Bay as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers offense got exposed against the Eagles as they only gained 174 total yards. Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 25 passes for a meager 146 yards. Tampa Bay is scoring only 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Bucs have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buccaneers’ offensive line is holding them back — the season-ending knee injury to center Ryan Jensen was a major blow for this team. They struggled to get a running game going last year even with a healthy Jensen — and now they are averaging just 78 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. They got outrushed by -160 yards last week to the Eagles — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -150 or more yards. Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid as they are allowing only 19.7 PPG after holding two of their opponents to only 17 points. New Orleans has not allowed more than 20 points in 11 straight games behind what may be the most underrated defense in the league. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they held the Packers scoreless going into the fourth quarter before squandering that lead, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. It looks like Derek Carr is going to give it a go in this one after being listed as questionable all week with a shoulder injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. With running back Alvin Kamara returning from his suspension, look for the New Orleans offense to focus on the ground game to protect Carr in what will likely be a contained game plan. New Orleans returns home where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. Tampa Bay has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 this season after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (2-1) has the same record after their 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory.  And while they have covered the point spread in two of their three games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Jared Goff continues to be more effective when playing at home for Detroit. At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Detroit is not at full strength on their offensive line with starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Green Bay is also banged up on their offensive line with starting left tackle David Bahktiari and starting left guard Elgton Jenkins both out for tonight’s game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. Green Bay stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. The Lions are also playing better defense so far this season — they rank 12th in those defensive DVOA rankings.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two low-scoring games last season with Detroit winning both games by 20-16 and 15-9 scores. Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) enter this game coming off a 30-23 loss at home to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this season after their 27-24 upset loss at home against Baltimore as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bengals’ quarterback  Joe Burrow is a game-time decision as he continues to be slowed by a nagging calk injury he suffered in late July. Even if he plays, he is not close to 100% — and this leg injury is impacting his passing ability. He is 0-12 with his passes of at least 15 yards in the air downfield. He is completing only 56.9% of his passes. If he cannot go tonight, then backup Jake Browning will get the call. The former Washington Huskies quarterback is in his third year in the league and has thrown exactly one pass in a regular season game back in Week One. Cincinnati does not have much of a ground game to lean on either. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step at this point in his career. After averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he has rushed for 59 and 56 yards on 13 carries in both his games. The Bengals have only rushed for 75 and 66 yards in their first two games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 99 yards in two straight games. They have been outrushed by 131 and 111 yards in both their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrushed by -100 or more yards in two straight contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home against an AFC North rival. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And in their last 10 games in September, Cincinnati has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles may be without the injured Cooper Kupp but Matthew Stafford is healthy and operating a ball-control offense behind former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been on the field for 36:17 minutes per game — and that is helping to protect their young defense that is allowing only 272.5 Yards-Per-Game. That defense is certainly helped by a healthy Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Additionally, the Rams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Los Angeles did surrender 6.89 Yards-Per-Play to the 49ers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.5 or more YPP. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh scored two defensive touchdowns last week to get to 26 points — but they managed only 255 yards on offense. That side of the ball has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. Injuries have played a role with wide receiver Dionte Johnson on the injured list with a hamstring. The Steelers' defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week after allowing the Browns to gain 408 yards against them. Pittsburgh has played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards including six of those last eight circumstances. They have played 3 straight Unders when playing on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Steelers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Las Vegas only managed 240 total yards last week against the Bills. They opened their season by beating Denver — but they only scored 17 points in the win. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Las Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they got outrushed by -128 net yards, they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrushed by -100 or more yards. Furthermore, while the Bills generated 450 yards against them, the Raiders have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (455) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (456). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 31-20 upset loss to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (1-1) took their first loss of the season in a 17-9 setback at home to Kansas City as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while that game finished Over the 40.5-point Total, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Houston will be without starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil who is dealing with an injury. With rookie C.J. Stroud nursing an injured right shoulder, look for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick to dial back the passing game to protect their franchise quarterback. The Texans go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Texans have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with  Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (455) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 35-33 upset loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-0) has won their first two games after their 24-17 win at New England as a 1-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Denver has not covered the point spread yet under new head coach Sean Payton — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They did average 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is getting sacked once in every eight dropbacks. With the challenge of playing in the South Beach heat against this potent Dolphins offense, look for Payton to try to shorten this game with his rushing attack behind running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. The defense will be without Justin Simmons and Frank Harris this afternoon, but this remains a good group that is allowing only 324.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Denver ranked seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 320.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Broncos have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a road dog. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Miami has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Toal at home after beating an AFC East rival on the road in their last game. And while they outgained the Patriots by +101 net yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by seven or fewer points. Additionally, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle who is out with a concussion. Without his deep threat, the dynamo of the offense changes — and Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can either double-team Tyreek Hill or rely on shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II to cover him.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas due to injuries tonight — and that is not ideal for an offense that had not scored a single point until they exploded for 31 second-half points last week against the woeful Cardinals. New York has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played off their last 17 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Giants’ defense is playing well as they are only allowing 322 YPG. Remember that the first two touchdowns that Dallas scored against them in that 40-0 debacle were from a blocked field goal attempt and then an interception returned for a TD. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC West rival in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and quarterback Brock Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home when favored in the 7.5-14 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland was impressive at home against the Bengals as they held them to just 142 total yards of offense. This Browns defense has the potential to be special with the addition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith in a trade with Minnesota who gives them a legitimate pass rush threat to complement Myles Garrett (replacing JaDeveon Clowney who perpetually disappointed in that role the last few seasons). The team also brought in former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator after successful previous stints with the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped the juice that was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by three or more touchdowns. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than six points in their last contest. They held Joe Burrow to just 67 passing yards in that game — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last contest. But after generating only 144 net yards in their own passing attack, the Browns have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh only generated 239 total yards last week against the 49ers — and now the offense will be without wide receiver Diontae Johnson who is feeling with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have played 5 straight Unders after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Steelers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin should have his defense ready to play despite the injury to defensive end Cam Hayward. They will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group was much better with a healthy T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. They have played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the opening two weeks of the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC North rivals — and Cleveland has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like a heavy pass script coming from head coach Kevin O’Connell who calls the plays. Don’t be surprised if Kirk Cousins throws 50 passes tonight against a depleted Eagles secondary that is missing cornerback James Bradbury to the concussion protocol and safety Reed Blankenship to a rib injury. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Vikings have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go on the road on the short week where they have played 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable. The Eagles gave up 382 total yards to the Patriots last week. But Philadelphia should play better on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Minnesota defense was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last season with the Eagles winning at home by a  24-7 score on September 19th. That final score was misleading as the Vikings got inside the Philadelphia 27-yard line four times — and then twice inside their 10-yard line — but failed to score a single point on those four drives. If Minnesota scores more from those drives, the game script changes with Philly likely scoring in the 30s. Expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) finished 7-10 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo looks poised to lean on their running game more this season with the acquisition of running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Bills have lacked the ability to sustain a four-minute offense when they need to protect a lead in the fourth quarter. With Harris coming over from New England and Murray being signed from Denver, Buffalo now has two bigger running backs to use in a power running game. Look for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to attempt to establish a power-rushing attack behind their solid offensive line against the stout Jets defense. The Bills' defense should be outstanding once again this season. They ranked second in the NFL by allowing only 17.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Additionally, the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. Aaron Rodgers is now under center — but I am not expecting him to light up the scoreboard after not getting much playing time in the preseason. The Jets are shaky with their offensive line — especially at right tackle with Mekhi Becton. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season.   The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more than important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys will lean on their outstanding defense ranked fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Giants’ running back has scored only three touchdowns in the eight games that he has played against the Cowboys. While most of the attention to New York in the second seasons under head coach Brian Daboll goes to Daniel Jones and the potential (or limitations) of their offense), I expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the injured Cowboys offensive line and Prescott. New York has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. The Giants have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) begins the post-Aaron Rodgers era coming off an 8-9 season. Chicago (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jordan Love era begins for the Packers as he makes his second career start this afternoon. He is probably not going to continue the outstanding legacy that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have established with this organization in the last three decades — Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not grow on trees. But while I think he can develop into a solid NFL quarterback, he probably still needs some time to develop after only taking 157 snaps in his three seasons in the NFL. Even if head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to “Let Love Cook” in this opening game, injuries at wide receiver would have probably changed that plan. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a hamstring injury and second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs is questionable with a hamstring. The remaining depth chart in the wide receiver room are rookies. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the running game this afternoon. I have a suspicion that an aggressive rushing attack is what LaFleur would have preferred anyways even with Rodgers as his quarterback the last few seasons. The Bears ranked second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Chicago certainly wants to pass the ball more after ranking last in the league by averaging only 130.5 passing YPG last season. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore when they traded down in the draft with Carolina gives third-year quarterback Justin Fields the number one wide receiver he has lacked. But I do not expect second-year head coach Matt Eberflus to abandon his defensive roots in game-planning for this contest. The Bears defense dealt with several injuries in the preseason so cohesion is a concern. Look for Chicago to focus on their ground game with Khalil Herbert and free agent signee D’Onta Foreman. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Toal in the opening two weeks of the season.  Don’t be surprised if this game is over by 7 PM ET/4 PM PT despite the late start — both teams are going to run the ball and burn clock. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (457) and the Cleveland Browns (458). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-0) comes off a 14-5 season that ended in a 23-20 loss at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Cleveland (0-0) missed the playoffs with a 7-10 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns expect to become a top-ten defense this season after making some significant investments on that side of the ball in the offseason. To shore up a run defense that allowed 135.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season, they signed 325-lb defensive tackle Calvin Tomlinson to control the middle of their defensive line. They added free safety Juan Thornhill from Kansas City to bolster an already good defensive backfield that ranked fifth in the NFL by allowing only 20 touchdown passes last season. And they replaced defensive coordinator Joe Woods with former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz who has an excellent reputation as a defensive coordinator with his time in Tennessee and Philadelphia. Schwartz joins a group that knows the Bengals very well as a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. Quarterback Joe Burrow got back on the practice field this week after missing most of the preseason due to a calf injury. Remember that Burrow started slowly last season after missing most of training camp to another injury — he threw four interceptions and took seven sacks in a 23-20 loss in overtime to Pittsburgh. The Bengals open this season on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (457) and the Cleveland Browns (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs. Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored 29.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while generating 414.1 total Yards-Per-Game — but those offensive numbers actually declined when they were playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas scored only 25.1 PPG and averaged 395.5 YPG in their eight home games in the regular season. In the AFC playoffs, the Chiefs only scored 50 combined points — but their defense also held Jacksonville and Cincinnati to only 20 points apiece in those two games. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. Granted, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. On offense, tight end Travis Kelce is questionable with his bruised knee that he suffered in practice this week. If he is missing, the Chiefs’ red zone offense may particularly struggle since he is Patrick Mahomes' most reliable target. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid’s game plan is to rely on the running game behind Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire — and that will burn time off the clock. Even if Kelce does play, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total -- and Kelce was healthy for all those games. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog of less than seven points. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile shootout losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in September to Philadelphia. At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. The Lions’ defense ranked last in total defense last year by allowing 392.4 Yards-Per-Game. With the additions of free agent cornerbacks Cameron Sutton from Denver and C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Philadelphia along with rookie draft picks Brian Branch from Alabama and Jack Campbell from Iowa, the talent level is improved on that side of the ball.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 — and Detroit has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored only 23 points against the Bengals — but the game script led that to be a lower-scoring game with Kansas City exposing a battered Cincinnati offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in that game — and the Bengals ran for just 71 yards on 17 carries on that game. The Chiefs held Cincinnati to just 309 total yards — but they will face a much stiffer challenge against this Eagles team that probably has the best offensive line in the NFL. The Kansas City offense went into that game with Patrick Mahomes limited with his mobility given the right ankle injury he suffered the previous week against Jacksonville. To then compound matters, the Chiefs lost three wide receivers to in-game injuries that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Frankly, I completely believe that the AFC Championship Game goes Over the Total if even one of those receivers was still available to complement Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the passing game in the fourth quarter of that game. Not only does KC probably score another three to seven points, but the Bengals then are pressured to play catch-up — and the game script changes. The Chiefs should at least get to their 28.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average against the Eagles — and they scored 32.8 PPG while generating 430.2 Yards-Per-Game in their nine games away from home. Kansas City has played three straight Unders — but they have then played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of those three wideouts. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 6 straight Overs after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been effective in his two playoff games since returning from his shoulder injury — and now he gets another two weeks to rest and recuperate for this contest. He will have the green light to run the ball now with everything at stake in this final game of the season. Philadelphia scores 28.7 PPG — and in their eight games away from home, that mark rises to 29.4 PPG and 398.3 total YPG. The Eagles’ elite offensive line should be able to create running lanes to jettison the Philly ground game — they lead the NFL with their rushing attack using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs allow 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents to generate 5.1 YPC but teams too often abandon their running game because they are trailing Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. The Eagles will not abandon their running game so hastily — and they should continue to move the football. And while Philadelphia has not allowed more than 16 points in three straight games, that speaks more to getting to play the New York Giants twice in a row (once with a backup quarterback) before getting the Niners last week who lacked a quarterback who could reliably throw a forward pass in the second half of that game. Philadelphia has allowed 32 or more points four times this season — and the best quarterback they have played against this season was either Jared Goff in Week One, Trevor Lawrence in early October (before his big step in growth after Thanksgiving) or the smirking Aaron Rodgers in November. OK, I neglected to consider Dak Prescott in that NFC East rematch in December — and Dallas scored 40 points in that game. Choose your fighter … none are Mahomes. This is a new challenge. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.


FINAL TAKE: After two lower-scoring games in the last two Super Bowls, I am expecting this contest to see a combined score of at least 50 points. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (323) and the Kansas City Chiefs (324). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cashing Unders with the Bengals and their defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been like going to the ATM — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset victory by 10 or more points. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points, Cincinnati has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Joe Burrow should continue to find success against the Chiefs’ secondary with three rookies getting significant time. Kansas City has surrounded the most passing touchdowns this season — and they are 7th in the NFL with 79 missed tackles from their defensive backs. Additionally, their defensive backs have been called for 14 defensive pass interference penalties which are the most in the league. The oddsmakers expect a close game — and Burrow has been very effective in the second half against the Chiefs in his career. Burrow has led Cincy to 47 points in the second half and overtime in his three games against KC — and the Bengals have averaged 29.3 Points-Per-Game in those three contests. The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or more games in a row. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin last week, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after sporting a +2 or higher net turnover margin in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. And in their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Kansas City has played 8 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These teams have played three times in the last 13 months — two of the games had 51 combined points scored and their Week 17 meeting last season saw 65 combined points scored. Cincinnati won all three of those games with the most recent contest being on December 4th in a 27-24 victory (the same score as the Bengals' upset win in the AFC Championship Game last year) — and the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (323) and the Kansas City Chiefs (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expected a higher-scoring game between the Cowboys and 49ers — but the game script progressed in a way that allowed head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on his running game and not ask rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to do too much. The Niners ran the ball in 21 of their 31 plays in the second half. Dak Prescott’s two interceptions that ended likely ended Cowboys’ scoring drives played a big role in keeping that score low and not putting pressure on San Francisco to respond with a score of their own. After tying the score at 6-6 late in the second quarter, the 49ers never trailed the rest of the game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. And while the Niners have won the turnover battle in 11 straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after generating a +1 or better turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Brock Purdy continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. While the Niners were able to frustrate a Dallas offense with the inconsistent Prescott playing poorly, they also were able to focus their defensive energies on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb since the Cowboys lack a credible second receiving threat. The Eagles have two legitimate number-one options in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The 49ers are vulnerable against quality vertical passing attacks. They allowed 15 pass plays of more than 20 bar yards this season, tied for the 3rd most in the NFL. Cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward have both been burned by deep balls this season — Ward, in particular, struggled against Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf who has a similar physical profile to Philly’s Brown. The Eagles also deploy plenty of play-action passes — and the 49ers' defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 96 of 135 passes (71.1%) from play-action for 1077 yards, 7.98 yards-per-attempt, nine touchdowns, and a Passer Rating of 101.4. In the final week of the regular season, Las Vegas’ Jarrett Stidham torched the Niners secondary by completing 23 of 34 passes for 365 yards, three touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 108.1. The 49ers allowed eight of their 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards in the air to come from play-action — and four of Stidham’s eight explosive completions against them came from play-action. The Eagles will likely lift much from the Raiders’ offensive game plan earlier this month. Jalen Hurts showed few ill effects from his separated shoulder injury from last month against the Giants — he completed 16 of 24 passes for 154 with two touchdown passes while rushing for 34 yards and another touchdown. After taking a 28-0 halftime lead, there was no reason for Philly to push Hurts in the second half as they coasted to victory. The Eagles have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They held the Giants to just 227 total yards — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs at home after winning two games in a row. And while they held the Giants to only 23 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on grass. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (317) and the San Francisco 49ers (318). THE SITUATION: Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday. San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they gained 505 yards against the Seahawks last week, they have then played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 350 or more yards in their last game. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now have four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. Dallas has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 4 straight Overs after a win by 14 or more points. Dak Prescott should enter this game full of confidence after completing 25 of 33 passes for 305 yards with four touchdowns. Dallas did give up 386 yards to the Buccaneers on Monday — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when playing at home at Levi’s Stadium. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (317) and the San Francisco 49ers (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals only gained 234 total yards last week against the Ravens — their 98-yard fumble recovery returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter made the winning difference in that game. Cincinnati lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee injury in that game — with La’el Collins and Alex Cappa also dealing with injuries, the Bengals are down three starters on their offensive line which is slowing down this offense. The Bengals only gained 257 total yards the previous week against Baltimore — and they managed only 237 total yards four games ago in their 34-23 win at Tampa Bay. Four of Cincinnati’s last five games have not seen more than 43 combined points scored. While Joe Burrow gets most of the headlines, the Bengals sport an underrated defense that has not allowed more than 18 points in three straight games and five of their last seven contests. The Under is 11-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The injuries on the offensive line are impacting the Bengals' rushing attack. After rushing for only 55 yards against the Ravens last week, they have not gained more than 73 rushing yards in four straight games. The Under is 17-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 24 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in three or more games in a row. The Bengals go on the road where the Under is 25-10-3 in their last 38 games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bengals have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have played two straight games where 58 or more combined points were scored, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. The Bills outgained the Dolphins last week by 192 net yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by 100 or more yards. And while they held Miami to just 42 rushing yards, Buffalo has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills only allow 18.6 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 260.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents — and the Under is 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games against fellow AFC rivals. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week. Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York’s offense was clicking last week behind a confident Daniel Jones who completed 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones also ran for 78 additional yards operating head coach Brian Daboll’s offense that helped Josh Allen become a star. Jones will be fully unleashed in this game with the Giants playing with house money. New York should be able to move the ball with Jones offering an additional threat with his legs. The Eagles allowed 499 rushing yards from quarterbacks with 307 of those yards coming from scrambles — and both of those marks are the second-most in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley should be relatively rested for this contest as well after only running the ball nine times last week (for 53 yards with two touchdowns). New York has averaged 163 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and the Eagles are vulnerable against the run despite their late-season free-agent pickups of defensive tackles Ndamukong Sun and Lineal Joseph. Their last five opponents have all rushed for at least 115 yards — and those five teams averaged 130.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game against them. This Daboll offense leads the NFL in Red Zone efficiency according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they present a balanced attack inside the opponent’s 20-yard line by ranking 1st with the pass and 3rd with the run according to the DVOA numbers. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last game. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point-spread win. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia hosts this game where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC East — and the Over is 5-2-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the Raiders to just 279 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win against an AFC West rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least two games in a row. They return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 19.4 Points-Per-Game. Surprisingly, Kansas City averages -18.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game at home than their 414.1 total YPG mark — and their 25.1 PPG scoring mark at home is -4.1 YPG below their season average. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 27-7 score, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They also endured a -5 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Those turnovers put the Chargers in a position to score in the first half — but the improving Jaguars' defense only gave up a field goal in the second half while holding them to just 320 total yards of offense. Jacksonville has held their last six opponents to just 18.0 PPG — and their last three opponents have averaged only 303.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Jags have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and the Chiefs have played 41 of their last 62 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total including Kansas City’s 27-17 victory on November 13th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against each other when playing at Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. Perhaps Jensen will help with the ground game for Tampa Bay's offense that has only averaged 77 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — but considering that their running backs are last in the league averaging 1.2 yards-after-contact, the problem is not with opening up holes at the line of scrimmage. If the Buccaneers lose tonight, they will go down with the ball in Brady’s hands. He is averaging 44 pass attempts per game — and we should not be surprised if he throws the ball at least 50 times tonight. A pass-heavy play script is a good recipe for the Over — especially when the number is below 50. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Buccaneers have allowed their last three opponents to average 369.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is +44.7 net YPG above their season average. That regressing unit presents a welcome opportunity for a Cowboys team that comes off an embarrassing loss where they only put up 182 total yards despite Dak Prescott playing for most of that game. Frankly, it was one of the worst efforts in his career as he completed just 14 of 37 passes for only 128 yards against the Eagles last week. Dallas has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Prescott missed time earlier in the season due to injury so tonight will be just the third time he has been under center following a game where he was their starting quarterback in a losing effort. The Cowboys scored 40 points in both of those previous contests — and Prescott has completed a combined 49 passes from 61 attempts for an 80.3% completion percentage for 623 passing yards, five touchdown passes, and only one interception. He has added 57 rushing yards in those two games as well. Furthermore, Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Prescott leads an offense that leads the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate — they have reached the end zone in 40 of their 54 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Cowboys have played 7 of their 8 games this season Over the Total when the Total was set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over their Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening week game between these two teams in which Tampa Bay won by a 19-3 score in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams have played 10 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Head coach Todd Bowles' teams have played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog getting up to three points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in six straight games after their 11-point loss in Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 36-13-2 in their last 51 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. The Ravens have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. They only managed 55 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow. On the other side of the ball, the Cincinnati defense remains underrated. They hold their guests to just 309.4 total YPG when playing at home which translates into 18.0 PPG. The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Under is also 21-7-2 in their last 29 games in January — and they have played 4 straight Unders. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 straight Unders in the playoffs. The Under is also 12-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 16 games against AFC opponents — and the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). THE SITUATION: New York (9-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 17-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 29-13 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings had played six straight games with at least 49 combined points scored before their victory against the Bears in the final week of the regular season. That streak started after Minnesota only scored a field goal in their flat 40-3 loss at home to Dallas. That game came after their 33-30 barn-burning victory at Buffalo the previous week. The Vikings cannot stop anyone — but the brilliance of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the veteran competency of quarterback Kirk Cousins usually results in higher-scoring games for this team. Minnesota has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win. Cousins completed 17 of 20 passes for 225 yards before making way for Nick Mullens who added another 116 passing yards. The Vikings gained 482 total yards against Chicago last week — and they have played 6 of their alert 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings’ defense has surrendered 29.6 Points-Per-Game in their last five games even after the Bears only put up 13 points against them. Their defense ranks 28th in the league in weighted DVOA Defense using the metrics at Football Outsiders that privilege the most recent performances. Minnesota returns home where they are scoring 27.0 PPG — but they are allowing their guests to generate 393.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.2 PPG. The Vikings have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total including seven of their last eight home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 24 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, the Vikings have played 17 of these games Over the Total. New York had scored 20 points in six straight games before only scoring 16 points last week against the Eagles in a game where head coach Brian Daboll rested many of his key starters including quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants' defense has allowed six of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points with the two exceptions being the anemic offenses of Indianapolis and Washington. The Over is 4-1-1 in New York’s last 6 games after a point spread win — and the Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. New York is generating 374.3 YPG in their last three games while ranking 7th in weighted Offensive DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Giants also lead the NFL in Red Zone DVOA Offense — and they will be going against a Vikings’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league in Red Zone DVOA Defense so their drives should result in more touchdowns than field goals if those trends hold up. Minnesota allows their opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes — and New York has played 4 straight Overs in the second half of the season against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. And while the Vikings score 24.9 PPG, the Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has led Minnesota to eight game-winning touchdowns this season — but Daniel Jones is responsible for five game-winning drives himself in his breakout season under Daboll’s direction. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (143) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers were flat in their effort last week against the Broncos which meant nothing with Cincinnati taking care of business against Baltimore at the same time last Sunday afternoon — they allowed the hapless Denver offense to generate 471 yards against them. But Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more total yards in their last game. The Chargers' defense has played better in the second half of the season — and getting Joey Bosa back to team up with Khalil Mack certainly raises the ceiling regarding how well this unit can play. Los Angeles was second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders from Weeks 13 through 17. They did allow Denver to rush for 205 yards last week — but they have then played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. The Chargers gained 352 yards in that contest — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. With a healthy Williams, the Chargers scored more than 24 PPG and averaged 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they dropped to scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend. Los Angeles stays on the road this week where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Jacksonville gained only 222 total yards last week against the Titans — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last contest. They only ran for 19 yards against the stout Tennessee run defense in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars return home where they are holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (143) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak to make the playoffs with their 19-16 win in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 38-13 victory against Arizona as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 255 yards in their victory last week. The Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. San Francisco has the best defensive unit in the NFL when using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — they rank 2nd in the league Run Defense and 5th against the Pass according to those DVOA analytics. They allow only 16.3 Points-Per-Game — and they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 303.8 Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. In their two games against the Seahawks this season, they held Seattle to only 20 combined points with the lone touchdown they surrendered taking place in garbage time in the second game between these teams in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy completed 15 of his 20 passes for 178 yards last week against the Cardinals — but the 49ers offense only gained just 311 yards against them. The Niners only generated 142 net passing yards after accounting for lost yards in sacks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. San Francisco stays at home at Levi’s Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs. Seattle held the Rams to only 123 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Seahawks have only given up 22 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Seattle ran for 197 yards against the Rams en route to 322 total yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Seahawks will clearly try to slow this game down by running Kenneth Walker early and burning time off the clock. Seattle has played four straight Unders — and not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders, but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 21-13 win in Seattle on December 15th. Purdy completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards in that game — but head coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks now have first-hand experience playing against the former Iowa State quarterback in addition to now three more games of tape against him. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Lastly, the weather forecast calls for wind and rain — and 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan may reel in his play-calling with the rookie under center to not take unnecessary chances given those conditions. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (459) and the Green Bay Packers (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 504 total yards of offense against the Bears — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Detroit has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And while the Lions held the Chicago offense to just 230 total yards, the Over is then 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 ads in their last game. The Over is also a decisive 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Detroit goes back on the road where they are allowing 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points, they have then played 10 of these games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. The Packers have also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold at Lambeau Field tonight with temperatures in the low-20s — but the winds are expected to be mild below 10 miles per hour with little chance of precipitation. Detroit upset the Packers in the first meeting between these teams by a 15-9 score as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Packers' offense is in a rhythm now having averaged 30.3 PPG in their last three games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against NFC North rivals. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against divisional opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (459) and the Green Bay Packers (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-9) has won two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three in a row after their 16-13 upset win at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns upset the Commanders despite only gaining 301 total yards of offense last week. Deshaun Watson has been underwhelming in his return from suspension — he only completed 9 of 18 passes against Washington for 169 yards (although he did throw three touchdown passes). Despite Watson’s fully guaranteed contract that he signed as a free agent from Houston, head coach Kevin Stefanski has his team running the football with his high-priced sex offender. The Browns had not scored more than 13 points in three straight games before reaching 24 points last week. But the Cleveland defense has been outstanding as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games. This should be a motivated group to play the role of spoiler to prevent Pittsburgh from making the playoffs — and sending Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin out with his first losing season in his career would be the icing on the cake. Furthermore, Jadeveon Clowney left the team this week after claiming he wanted to play for a team that “wanted” him — and that prompted Myles Garrett to paraphrase Tomlin in claiming that his team does not want “hostage” playing for them. Expect the defensive to play inspired football with the malcontent Clowney now out of the picture. As it is, Cleveland has played  4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They held the Commanders to just 124 passing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. And while they have played six straight Unders, Cleveland has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. In their last three games, they are generating just 277.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 15.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their last three opponents to 276.0 YPG and a mere 10.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Steelers have gained 351 yards against the Ravens with 198 of those yards coming on the ground. The Under is a decisive 47-22-2 in their last 71 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They held Baltimore to only 240 total yards — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games. They have held their last three opponents to 216.7 YPG and 13.0 PPG. But Pittsburgh has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five contests. Back at home, the Steelers are gaining only 317.0 YPG and 18.7 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by three points or less. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh makes the playoffs with a win this afternoon combined with a New England loss and Miami loss — so the stakes are high for them. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 games against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. They did give up 361 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more yards in their last game. The Titans go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 269.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The formula for success in this contest will be to keep running Henry who looks primed for at least 30 carries in this contest. But the Titans will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who had thrown only 17 career passes in the NFL before making his first career start last week against the Cowboys. Dobbs accounted for himself pretty well against the Dallas team — he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards. But the Jaguars will benefit from the game tape they now have on Dobbs for this contest. Jacksonville has only allowed six combined points in their last two games albeit against similarly less-than-ideal quarterbacking situations with Houston and the New York Jets. They held the Texans to just 277 total yards after limiting the Jets to only 227 yards the previous week. The Jags have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Houston only ran for 84 yards against them last week — and the Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Jacksonville ran for 169 yards against the Texans — making it the third straight game where they gained at least 147 yards on the ground. But the Jaguars have then played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. Jacksonville returns home where they are holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents including four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. 25* NFL ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) and the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers held the Raiders to just 201 total yards last week with Las Vegas only gaining 58 rushing yards on the ground. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to less than 90 rushing yards. The Steelers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 47-22-1 in their last 70 games away from home. Baltimore has held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have not scored more than 17 points in those four contests and are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-6-2 in the Ravens’ last 28 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. These two teams have played 4 straight Unders — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Baltimore. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 27-24 win against the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite on December 24th. Green Bay (7-8) has won three straight games after their 26-20 upset win at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins had another good game against the Giants — he completed 34 of 48 passes for 299 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In his last four games, Cousins has thrown for 1357 yards for a 339 passing Yards-Per-Game average — and he has tossed ten touchdowns during that span. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Vikings generated 353 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But Minnesota also gave up 435 yards to the Giants in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teas with a losing record at home. Green Bay has found their offensive identity (finally) — they are scoring 26.5 PPG in their last six games. The key to the Packers' offensive success has been to lean into their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In Green Bay’s last four games, those two running backs have 117 combined touches for 635 yards with six touchdowns. The Packers have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back home where they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. Green Bay is looking to avenge a 23-7 loss in Minnesota on September 11th — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings at Lambeau Field Over the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The tenor of this game has changed significantly from Monday morning to late Thursday afternoon. It is better to get the play right than to get the play out early. At this point, with neither team having anything at stake regarding playoff implications, I expect this to be a fast-played game with plenty of running plays to burn time off the clock with the hope to get it over with as soon as possible. The worst-case scenario for both teams is an injury. Tennessee makes the playoffs with a victory next week against Jacksonville — this is why head coach Mike Vrabel is resting key starters including running back Derrick Henry and, as he announced this afternoon, rookie quarterback Malik Willis. Joshua Dobbs, who they picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad just eight days ago, gets the start. While Dobbs does not know the Titans offense, he still remembers how to hand off the ball — to rookie running back Hassan Haskins tonight behind a beat-up offensive line ravaged with injuries. Tennessee has only scored 14 points in each of their last two games relying on their starters with both those games finishing Under the Total. The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Tennessee is playing solid defense still after holding their last two opponents to just 36 combined points (including the LA Chargers). The Texans only ran for 70 yards en route to their 285 total yards of offense — and the Titans have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas will not play running back Tony Pollard tonight — and I don’t expect many of the first-string offense to play into the second half in this one since they have clinched the top NFC wildcard slot but probably cannot catch Philadelphia to win the NFC East. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC East rival. And while they had a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Eagles, they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road when favored — and the Titans have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Indianapolis Colts (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory — and their defense will have something to prove tonight after giving up 36 points in the second half to the Vikings last week. Indianapolis gave up 518 total yards to Minnesota last week — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. The Colts will run the football to keep Justin Herbert off the field even without the injured Jonathan Taylor at running back. They ran for 171 yards against the Vikings — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they hold their guests to just 322.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while Justin Herbert completed 28 of 42 passes for 313 yards against the Titans, the Chargers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under current offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total in December — and the Colts have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total in games played in December. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Indianapolis Colts (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.                            

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Buccaneers' defense for the loss to the Bengals last week as they held the potent Cincinnati offense to just 237 total yards. Tampa Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Tampa Bay ranks 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They may have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona is on their third-string quarterback tonight after the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league) last week after he was replacing Kyler Murray who may be out another year with his torn ACL. The Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to McSorley. The Cardinals only gained 240 yards last week in their last at Denver — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders gained only 308 yards of offense in their victory against the Patriots last week — but they held New England to just 318 total yards. Las Vegas has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Raiders go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Las Vegas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh held the Panthers to just 209 total yards in their victory last week. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh held Carolina to only 21 rushing yards — and they have played 25 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. The Steelers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Furthermore, the Under is 35-15-1 in the Steelers’ last 51 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not help the offenses tonight with temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit with the wind chill factor in the negatives. Even worse, winds will be in the 14 MPH range with gusts up to 30 MPH which will impact the vertical passing games while making it very difficult to kick field goals. As it is, the Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) and the New York Jets (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. They scored 76 combined points in those two games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. And while they gained 192 rushing yards against the Cowboys last week, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound these matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. New York allowed 359 total yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Given the weather conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home at MetLife Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 straight Unders against fellow AFC opponents. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) and the New York Jets (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has finally embraced the potential of the Green Bay offense if they commit to running the ball more behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. After bottoming out with just 12 rushing attempts in a 23-21 loss at Washington, the Packers have since run the ball at least 19 times in their last six games including 31 or more rushes in three of those games. They have gained at least 106 yards on the ground in five of those six games — and they gained 175 or more on the ground three times. Sticking with the running game helps Rodgers be more effective in the passing attack since defenders get burned for simply stepping back to defend the pass. It is not a coincidence that Christian Watson has stepped up as a deep threat in the second half of the season coinciding with these increased rushing efforts. Watson has now caught 11 of his 23 targets of more than 10 air yards — resulting in 294 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Packers ran for 175 yards on 32 carries against the Bears — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Toal after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. But the play of the Packers' defense remains an issue — especially since the season-ending injury to linebacker Rashan Gary. The Packers have allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bears gained 409 yards against them two weeks ago — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. Green Bay returns home where Rodgers has been much more effective with a Passer Rating of 104 with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home at Lambeau Field. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the benefit of the mini-bye after playing on a Thursday. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns. But the Rams’ defense misses Aaron Donald who will be out once again for this game. They have given up 392.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they have surrendered 26 or more points in four of their last five games. They did hold the Raiders to 137 passing yards — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December. With both of these teams essentially out of the playoffs, look for a wild one tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only gained 304 total yards last week in their loss to the Eagles. After thriving under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, defenses have adjusted to running back Saquon Barkley who perhaps is beginning to tire in the back half of the season. Barkley ran the ball only nine times last week for 28 yards — and he has only 38 carries in his last three games for 130 rushing yards. The Under is 15-5-2 in New York’s last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point-spread loss. And while the Giants got outgained by -133 net yards, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last contest. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but the Under is then 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. But in their last three games, they are scoring just 20.7 PPG and generating just 306.7 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commanders ran for 165 yards against the Giants two weeks ago — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. They get the rematch at home where they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. But the Washington defense is playing as well as any defensive unit in the league lately. They have held their last three opponents to 14.3 PPG and 279.3 YPG — and this group will be even better if and when Chase Young returns to action from his injury (which could be tonight). The Commanders have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home in the second half of the season. They have also played 4 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Washington’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in December. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five contests — after their 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 4th. New Orleans (4-9) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five as well — after a 17-16 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only gained 306 total yards against the Steelers in their last game. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game and generating a mere 306.0 total YPG in their last three contests. It is this ineptitude on offense that played a role in head coach Arthur Smith benching Marcus Mariota and turning to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has yet to appear in an NFL game this season — this will be a tough test in a very hostile environment against a stout defense. With tight end Kyle Pitts out the season with a torn MCL, this remains a limited Falcons’ offense that lacks weapons in the passing attack. Ridder may offer a more credible vertical threat in the passing game, but Smith is not going to ask Ridder to do too much — and this will remain a run-first team. Atlanta is scoring only 19.0 PPG and generating 290.8 total YPG in their six games on the road. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Falcons have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Atlanta surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Steelers in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams that lack a winning record at home. New Orleans only gained 298 yards in their loss to the Buccaneers just under two weeks ago. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. And while they only rushed for 66 yards against Tampa Bay, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 90 rushing yards in their last contest. New Orleans is scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 293.7 total YPG in those games. But the Saints are staying competitive by holding those last three opponents to 16.7 PPG — and they only allow 307.0 total YPG in their six games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December — and the Saints have played 5 straight Unders in December. This is a rematch of New Orleans’ 27-26 win in Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on September 11th — but these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Under the Total. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Buffalo Bills (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — and to quote Dan Marino, who most certainly has communicated this to Tua Tagovailoa this week, his mantra was “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’!” The snowy conditions can actually help the offense — especially with the Dolphins' speed at wide receiver with Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle — since defenders have to react but might not have as good of traction on the ground. Frankly, head coach Mike McDaniel needs to step up now after two weeks where his schemes were exposed by man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Most defenses were playing zone coverages against the Dolphins because of their speed at wide receiver — now McDaniel needs to dial up plays to give Tagovailoa enough time in the pocket to go deep against what will likely be single coverage. With running back Jeff Wilson questionable with a hip injury, Miami is not likely to lean heavily on their rushing attack in this game. Tagovailoa only passed for 145 yards last week against the Chargers with the Dolphins just generating 219 total yards. But they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to gain more than 150 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last contest. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. They stay on the road for the third straight week where they are getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home against an AFC East rival. And while the Bills have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 27 of their last 40 games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 22 combined points — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — he was their best pass rusher. They stay at home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG and generating 410.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when hosting the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Buffalo Bills (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA  overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They managed only 242 total yards of offense against the Bills last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games against a team with a losing record — and they have played 6 straight Unders when on the road and favored up to three points. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. It is no secret that New England is challenged on offense — and injuries on their offensive line along with running back Damien Harris and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers are not helping matters. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. The Cardinals have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring just 22.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 327.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the last four weeks of the regular season — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards  — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
 
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints’ offense hit rock bottom last week against the 49ers by failing to score a point and only generating 260 yards of offense. It is dangerous to fade offenses embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But don’t sleep on this New Orleans defense that ranks 15th in the league in DVOA. They have held their last three opponents to 17.7 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 345.8 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Saints have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders in December. Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. They are scoring only 18.2 PPG this season — and they have scored just 18.0 PPG in their last three games. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Buccaneers' defense surrendered 367 yards to the Browns last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against division rivals. Tampa Bay has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in Tampa Bay Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts managed only 290 yards of offense against the Steelers. They have not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games and seven of their last nine contests. They have not scored more than 21 points in ten of their 12 games. They are averaging only 15.8 Points-Per-game on the season — and in their five games on the road, they are scoring just 11.7 PPG and averaging 311.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 4 straight Unders when playing on a short week after a game on Monday. And while the Colts endured a -2 net turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range including 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in that range. Indianapolis has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 42 games played in December, 30 of these games finished Under the Total. Dallas has the top-ranked defense using the DVOA analytics. They have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less with four of their opponents failing to score more than 10 points. They lead the NFL in sacks which likely spells a nightmare for the immobile statue that is the aging Matt Ryan tonight. They held the Giants to just 300 total yards in their Thanksgiving game. They outgained New York by +130 net yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Giants — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 261 yards in the win — but Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 16.8 PPG and 313.5 total YPG — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving. New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo held the Lions to just 326 yards in the victory last week. They will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury — but their defense is getting healthier with defensive ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa along with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds full participants in practice this week. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while Buffalo has seen at least 53 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two or more games with 50 or more combined points scored. The Bills have averaged 414.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo scores 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders as a road favorite. Buffalo’s defense remains elite even without Miller — they rank 3rd in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have held their last three opponents to 310.0 YPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they gained 409 total yards against the Vikings, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England only gained 45 yards on the ground in that game — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots' defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank just 25th in the NFL in DVOA on offense — ranking 24th with their running game and 22nd with their passing game. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without running back Damien Harris and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. They are only generating 303.0 YPG in their last three games. New England has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots will want to slow this game down by running the football and likely playing two high safeties to dare the Bills to run the football and get out of their passing attack. New England has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against rivals from the AFC. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) and the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 straight Unders after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while they generated 408 total yards in their last game, the Under is then 45-21-2 in their last 68 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh has held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games where they are scoring only 13.2 Points Per Game and averaging just 316.0 total Yards Per Game. The Under is 46-20-1 in their last 67 games on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings against each other Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) and the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers managed to generate just 271 yards against the Titans last week. The struggling Green Bay offense has not scored more than 17 points in three of their last four games — and they have not scored more than 22 points in six of their last seven games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has conceded that he is playing with a broken thumb — but while that may explain how his once immaculate delivery has devolved into a wrist flick motion, his problems go way beyond this season. Even a broken thumb does not explain his bad decision-making — and he continues to struggle to develop chemistry with his wide receiving corps in the Brave New World without Davante Adams. I do not understand why this team simply does not run the ball more (although the deteriorating offensive line has not always made that easy — but they abandon the run too quickly: as Michigan demonstrated yesterday versus Ohio State, sometimes the ground game does not emerge until the second half). After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed Tennessee to generate 6.69 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after giving up 6.69 YPP in their last contest. They go on the road where they are only scoring 15.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played all 3 games on the road as an underdog this season Under the Total. Philadelphia has held five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The Colts gained only 284 total yards against them last week. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philly has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enduring a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. The Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. But this Philly defense remains elite and is now bolstered on the interior of their defensive line with the acquisitions of Ndamukong Suh and Lineal Joseph. They hold their guests to 18.0 PPG and 285.6 total YPG when playing at home. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (109) and the Minnesota Vikings (110). THE SITUATION: New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO UNDER THE TOTAL: Minnesota only gained 183 total yards against the Cowboys last week. The Vikings rank just 19th in the league on offense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game with a 321.7 total Yards-Per-Game average in their last three games. Minnesota has played 26 of their last 38 games at home Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 5 straight Unders when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. New England has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders when playing on the road after winning at least two games in a row. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing 150 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Patriots have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (109) and the Minnesota Vikings (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: New York (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-18 upset loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 40-3 win at Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants are decimated with injuries — especially on the offensive line. They will be without three starters and a rotational player with Evan Neal, Shane Lemieux, Jon Feliciano, and Joshua Ezeudo all declared out today. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable as well with an illness — but he did take part in limited practice yesterday. New York is also thin at wide receiver with Wan’Dale Robinson out with an injury — and Sterling Shepard already out the season, Kadarius Toney traded to Kansas City, and Kenny Golladay being in the perpetual doghouse. New York is scoring only 18.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. The Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Under is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York did generate 413 yards last week — but the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas held the Vikings to just 183 total yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They limited Minnesota to just 110 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Cowboys have an elite defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in the DVOA rankings at Football Outsiders. They have held seven of their ten opponents to less than 20 points — and they lead the league with 42 sacks. Daniel Jones is going to have a very difficult time passing the ball with his banged-up offensive line — and Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can safely stack the box to stop Saquon Barkley given the limitations the Giants will have in the passing game. The Cowboys generated 458 yards of offense last week with Dak Prescott passing for 276 yards. But Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while Dallas has scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games, they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of Dallas’ 23-16 victory in New York as a 1-point underdog on September 26th. The Giants have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders when avenging a same-season loss by seven points or less. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-3) has won five of their last seven games after a 31-23 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (4-6) has won three games in a row after pulling off their third straight upset in a 31-18 victory in New York against the Giants as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has not allowed more than 23 points in nine of their ten games this season — and they have not allowed more than 20 points in eight of their ten contests. They are allowing only 17.4 Points-Per-Game and 327.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they rank 3rd in the NFL in defense according to the DVOA metrics at DVOA with both their run and pass defenses in their top-seven rankings. The Bills have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while they held the potent Browns rushing attack to only 80 rushing yards last week, they have then played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. After six straight games where Buffalo did not see more than 44 combined points in their games, their last two contests have seen 51 or more combined points scored. But the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more points were scored. They played in Detroit last week after the Buffalo blizzard forced them out of town — and they return to Ford Field this week having played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total away from home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Bills have not scored more than 27 points in five of their last eight games. Quarterback Josh Allen has only two touchdown passes in his last three games — and he has thrown four interceptions over that span. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Detroit has scored 31 points in two straight games — but they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. And while they have played two straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Lions have been playing better defense lately — particularly in stopping the run. They have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 107 rushing yards — and the lone exception was against Chicago when quarterback Justin Fields ran for 147 yards. The Bears only ran for 111 yards outside of Fields in that game. While Allen is mobile, he is not likely to run enough times to get close to Fields' number when playing the Lions since it is not worth the injury risk. Detroit returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. And in their last 7 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: One of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s since Buffalo scores 28.1 PPG and the Lions allow 28.2 PPG — but the Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who allow 27 or more PPG and Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 27 or more PPG. 10* NFL Buffalo-Detroit CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing 250 or more yards in two straight games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers lead the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. They held the Chargers to just 51 rushing yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 90 or fewer rushing yards. The 49ers did rush for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. But, frankly, despite their offense loaded with weapons with skill position players getting healthy and the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, too often head coach Kyle Shanahan dials up gimmicky plays when simple plays do the trick. The Niners have not scored more than 23 points in three of their last four games. Some of that can be explained by Shanahan’s commitment to running the football — and they have held their last two opponents scoreless in the second half. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. Arizona has only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Cardinals are riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit. They hold their opponents to only 295.4 YPG when playing on the road. Arizona has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. Kansas City has played two straight Unders — but they have then played  5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City and Los Angeles are completing 65.5% and 66.4% of their passes this season. The Chiefs have played 6 straight Overs on the road against opponents that are completing 64% or more of their passes — and the Chargers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents that are completing 66.4% or more of their passes. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing the Under even with the Titans missing some starters on defense after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game in their upset win against the Cowboys. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers generated 415 total yards last week — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Tennessee has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.