02-04-25 |
Senators v. Lightning -165 | | 3-4 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (10) versus the Ottawa Senators (9). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (27-20-4) has lost three of their last four games after a 3-2 loss in overtime at home against the New York Islanders on Saturday. Ottawa (28-20-4) has won five games in a row after their 5-2 win at Nashville last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay should bounce-back tonight as they have won 7 of their last 8 games at home after losing their last game. They stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 21 games when favored. Andrei Vasilevskiy is their goaltender tonight. He has a 21-15-3 record this season with a 2.28 Goals-Against-Average and a .918 save percentage — but he has been much better at home where he enjoys a 16-5-2 record along with a 1.95 GAA and a .933 save percentage. Ottawa has lost 3 of their last 4 games when playing on the road for the second day in a row this season. And while they have played three straight games that finished Over the Total, they have then lost 3 of their 4 games this season after playing three or more Overs in a row. Linus Ullmark is their goaltender tonight as he makes his first start since December 27th due to injury. He was carrying a 12-7-2 record at the time with a 2.38 GAA and a .915 save percentage. He may be rusty making his first start in over a month. As it is, Ullmark has a 2.87 GAA and a .902 save percentage this season when playing with three or more days between appearances.
FINAL TAKE: The Lightning look to avenge a 5-4 loss on the road against the Senators in a game where they were priced as a -140 money-line favorite — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road. 8* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (10) versus the Ottawa Senators (9). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-30-25 |
Kings v. Lightning -145 | | 0-3 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (6) versus the Los Angeles Kings (5). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (26-20-3) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Chicago on Tuesday. Los Angeles (26-16-6) has lost three games in a row after a 3-0 loss at Florida last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I have been waiting on confirmation that Andrei Vasileskiy would be between the pipes to Tampa Bay — and that news was made official at 6:30 PM ET. Vasilevskiy took part in morning practice with the expectation to play but he has been battling an illness which put his start tonight in doubt. He has not played since Saturday. If he was not going to play tonight, the Lightning called up Matt Tomkins from the AHL to make his first appearance of the season — and I was not willing to invest under those circumstances. Vasilevskiy has been outstanding at home where he sports a 2.05 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage to go along with his 15-5-1 record. He should offer the shot in the arm this team needs given their recent slump. As it is, Tampa Bay has won 6 of their last 9 home games after losing their last game. They have won 13 of their last 19 games at home when favored — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite up to a -150 price. Los Angeles has lost five of their last six contests during a significant scoring slump where they have not scored more than two goals in five straight games and in ten of their last 11 contests. The Kings have lost 7 of their last 11 road games after losing their previous game on the road. They have also lost 12 of their last 17 games on the road with the Total set at 5.5. Furthermore, Los Angeles has lost 7 of their last 9 road games when priced as an underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. David Rittich is their starting goaltender tonight given the back-to-back schedule the last two days. He has struggled with a 3-8-0 record in 11 starts on the road with a 3.20 GAA and a .860 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Lightning look to avenge a 2-1 loss on the road against the Kings back on January 4th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NHL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (6) versus the Los Angeles Kings (5). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-23-25 |
Canucks v. Oilers -172 | | 2-6 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (58) versus the Vancouver Canucks (57). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (29-15-3) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss against Washington on Tuesday. Vancouver (20-16-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-2 loss to Buffalo on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton should bounce back tonight after previously being on a four-game winning streak before this recent slide. The Oilers have won 19 of their last 28 games after losing two games in a row — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games at home after losing two or more games in a row. They have won 15 of their last 24 games at home this season — and they have won 29 of their last 40 games at home in the second half of the season. Edmonton is playing with Connor McDavid who got suspended for three games — but the Canucks are missing two of their top-six defensemen on their blue line. The Oilers have won 18 of their last 21 games played in January. The Canucks are allowing 3.2 Goals-Per-Game this season — and Edmonton has won 21 of their last 3 games against teams giving up 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. The Oilers have also won 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. Calvin Pickard is their goaltender tonight. He has a 9-2-0 record in his 11 starts against fellow Western Conference opponents this season with a solid 2.54 Goals-Against-Average and a .900 save percentage. Vancouver has lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record. They have lost 14 of their last 19 games as an underdog. Thatcher Demko is between the pipes tonight. He has a 3.23 GAA and an .873 save percentage. He is underwater with a -4.1 Goals-Saved-Above Expectation mark in a very disappointing season.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers got upset in Vancouver by a 3-2 score as a -175 money-line favorite back on January 8th. Edmonton has won 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 8* NHL Thursday Late Show Special Feature with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (58) versus the Vancouver Canucks (57). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-14-25 |
Rangers v. Avalanche -142 | Top | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (72) versus the New York Rangers (71). THE SITUATION: Colorado (26-17-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 upset loss at Winnipeg on Saturday. New York (20-20-2) has won three of their last four games after their 2-1 upset win at Vegas on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado struggled out of the gate with a 3-6-1 record but they are playing up to their high expectations now with a 9-3-1 mark in their last 13 games despite losing two of their last three games. Fixing their goaltending problem by acquiring Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood has made a huge difference. Blackwood gets the start tonight. In his 11 games (10 starts) with the Aves, he has an 8-2-1 record with a 1.66 Goals-Against-Average and a .939 save percentage. He is fourth in the league with 15.5 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation. His .961 save percentage on unblocked shots this season is ninth-best in the league for all goaltenders who have played in at least four games. Colorado should play better tonight as they have won 11 of their last 17 games after a loss. They have won 14 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road by at least three goals including 5 of those 7 times this season. They have also won 6 straight games after failing to score more than one goal. After playing their three games on the road, they return home to Ball Arena where they have won 44 of their last 64 home games when favored. They have won 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last three games on the road. They have won 13 of their 20 games this season against teams with a losing record — and they have won 23 of their last 30 home games against teams with a losing record. They have also won 23 of their last 34 games when favored. New York has been one of the biggest disappointments this season after winning the President’s Trophy last season — and trading away Jacob Trouba earlier in the year ruffled some feathers inside the locker room. The Rangers are playing better lately — but they have lost 12 of their last 19 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road. Igor Shesterkin will be between the pipes tonight. He is having a down season given his 13-15-1 record along with a 2.98 GAA and a .908 save percentage. Against teams from the Western Conference, he has a 4-6-1 record along with a 3.29 GAA and a .905 save percentage. His save percentage on unblocked shots is just .953 which ranks 32nd in the NHL for all goaltenders who have played at least four games this season. The Rangers have lost 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: New York has lost 13 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record — and the Avalanche have won 23 of their last 26 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 25* NHL Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (72) versus the New York Rangers (71). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-14-25 |
Canucks v. Jets -151 | | 1-6 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (64) versus the Vancouver Canucks (63). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (29-12-3) has won two of their last three games after their 3-0 win against Colorado on Saturday. Vancouver (19-10-3) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 3-0 win at Toronto on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg should build off their momentum as they have won 19 of their last 28 games after winning their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games at home after a win. They have won 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home by three or more goals. The Jets have won 16 of their 23 games at home this season — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games at home when favored. Furthermore, they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. Connor Hellebuyck got the shutout against the Avalanche — and gets the start between the pipes tonight. In his 34 games this season, he has a 26-6-2 record with a 2.02 Goals-Against-Average and a .928 save percentage. In his 20 starts at home, he enjoys a 1.90 GAA and a .931 save percentage. Vancouver has lost 11 of their last 18 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing one goal or less in their last game. Kevin Lankinen gets the start tonight. He has a 16-7-6 record with a 2.51 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Against Western Conference opponents, he has a 2.62 GAA and a .898 save percentage in 12 starts. He ranks 37th in the NHL with just a 0.02 save percentage above the expected save percentage for the shots he has faced.
FINAL TAKE: The Canucks have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road when an underdog up to a +200 price. 8* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (64) versus the Vancouver Canucks (63). Best of luck for — Frank. |
01-09-25 |
Islanders v. Golden Knights -169 | | 4-0 |
Loss | -169 | 1 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (48) versus the New York Islanders (47). THE SITUATION: Vegas (28-9-3) has won three games in a row and nine of their last ten contests after their 4-2 win at San Jose on Tuesday. New York (15-18-7) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 5-4 win at Boston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas should continue to build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Knights have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a fellow Pacific Division rival — and they have won 6 of their last 7 home games after beating a divisional opponent. They return home to the Fortress at T-Mobile Arena where they have won 14 of their 18 home games this season with the Total set at 6 or higher. They have also won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. Adin Hill will be between the pipes for Vegas tonight. He has a 2.58 Goals-Against-Average and a .904 save percentage — but he has been better at home where he sports a 2.33 GAA and a .915 save percentage. He ranks tenth in the league with +9.7 Goals Saved Above Expectation. New York has lost 7 straight games after a win on the road. They have also lost 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. They counter with Ilya Sorokin as their goaltender. He has a 2.92 GAA and a .898 save percentage. He is underwater with a -1.8 Goals Saved Above Expectation.
FINAL TAKE: The Islanders have lost 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. 8* NHL Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (48) versus the New York Islanders (47). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-08-25 |
Canucks v. Capitals -171 | | 1-2 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Capitals (22) versus the Vancouver Canucks (21). THE SITUATION: Washington (26-10-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss at Buffalo on Monday. Vancouver (18-12-9) has lost four of their last five contests after their 5-4 loss in overtime at Montreal on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAPITALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington should get back to their winning ways tonight as they have won 11 of their last 13 games after losing their last game. They return home where they have won 13 of their last 20 games on home ice. They have also won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. Logan Thompson is their goaltender tonight. He has a 16-2-2 record in his 20 starts this season along with a 2.39 Goals-Against-Average and a .916 save percentage. He ranks fourth in the NHL with +14.1 Goals Saved Above Expectation. In his eight starts against Western Conference opponents, he has a 5-2-1 record with a 1.89 GAA and a .936 save percentage. The former Vegas Golden Knights’ goalie faces his former Pacific Division rival Canucks who are banged up with Elias Petersson and Filip Hronek on injured reserve. Vancouver has lost 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog priced up to +150. They have also lost 17 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. They turn to Kevin Lankinen between the pipes who has a 2.63 GAA and a .904 save percentage in 27 starts. He is underwater with a -0.9 Goals Saved Above Expectation which ranks 50th in the league. He faces a Washington team that scores 3.7 Goals-Per-Game and outscores their opponents by +1.0 Goals-Per-Game. Vancouver has lost 19 of their last 29 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: The Canucks are scoring 3.1 Goals-Per-Game and surrendering 3.2 Goals-Per-Game. The Capitals have won 14 of their last 20 games against teams who are scoring 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game — and they have won 17 of their last 25 games against teams who are giving up 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. 8* NHL Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Washington Capitals (22) versus the Vancouver Canucks (21). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
01-07-25 |
Predators v. Jets -135 | | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (16) versus the Nashville Predators (15). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (27-12-2) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at home against Detroit on Saturday. Nashville (13-20-7) has won two games in a row after their 4-1 win at Calgary on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg should get back to their winning ways tonight as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing at home in their last game. They have also won 5 straight games when playing with two days of rest between contests. The Jets have won 14 of their last 20 games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite up to -200. Connor Hellebuyck is between the pipes tonight. He leads the NHL with +23.1 Goals Saves Above Expectation. In his 18 starts at home, he has a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average and a .928 save percentage. Winnipeg has won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Nashville has lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They stay on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They counter with Juuse Saros between the pipes tonight. In his 16 starts on the road, he has just a 3-10-3 record with a 2.83 GAA and a .906 save percentage. He ranks just 23rd in the league with only +4.6 Goals Saved Above Expectation.
FINAL TAKE: The Predators want to avenge a 3-0 loss at Winnipeg on December 30th — but they have lost 8 of their last 11 opportunities to revenge. 8* NHL Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (16) versus the Nashville Predators (15). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-07-25 |
Blue Jackets v. Penguins -145 | | 4-3 |
Loss | -145 | 0 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (4) versus the Columbus Blue Jackets (3). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (17-17-4) has lost three games in a row after their 4-3 loss at Carolina on Sunday. Columbus (17-17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 6-4 win at home against St. Louis on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PENGUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Penguins return home after losing all three games on their road trip. Pittsburgh has won 7 of their last 11 games at home after a loss. They have also won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a fellow Metropolitan Division rival — and they have won all 4 of those games when playing at home. Additionally, they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road to a division foe. Back at home, they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. The Penguins have won 9 of their 11 games when favored this season. Tristan Jarry is their goaltender tonight. He has been a disappointment with an 8-6-3 record along with a 3.47 Goals-Against-Average and a .888 save percentage. He did play well in his last start at Florida when he stopped 31 of the 33 shots he faced in a game that eventually they lost in a shootout. He faces a Blue Jackets team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road against teams using a goaltender with a save percentage no better than .895. Columbus has lost 11 of their last 16 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road after winning their last game. They have lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning at home in their last contest — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road after winning at home in their last game. Furthermore, they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring six or more goals in their last contest — and they have lost 4 straight games on the road after scoring six or more goals in their last game. They hit the road again where they have lost 15 of their last 19 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. They have also lost 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. And while Pittsburgh is giving up 3.7 Goals-Per-Game, the Blue Jackets have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against teams who are giving up 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. Elvis Merzlikins is between the pipes for them tonight. He has a 3.18 Goals-Against-Average along with a .888 save percentage in 26 starts. In two games this month, he has been saddled with a 4.53 GAA and a .847 save percentage. In nine games facing Merzlikins, Sidney Crosby has scored six goals. In his eight starts against Pittsburgh, Merzlikins has lost six times.
FINAL TAKE: The Penguins look to avenge a 6-2 loss at Columbus on November 15th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home when playing with revenge. Pittsburgh has won 18 of their last 20 games at home against the Blue Jackets including fifteen victories in a row. 10* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (4) versus the Columbus Blue Jackets (3). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-02-25 |
Flyers v. Golden Knights -178 | | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (21). THE SITUATION: Vegas (25-9-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss at home against Montreal on Tuesday. Philadelphia (17-17-4) has won two of their last three games after a 4-0 win at San Jose on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas should rebound tonight as they have won 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games at home after losing on home ice in their last contest. They have won 37 of their last 55 games at home with the Total set at 6 or higher — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games at home when favored. The Flyers are giving up 3.6 Goals-Per-Game — and the Golden Knights have won 17 of their last 23 games against teams who are giving up 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. Ilya Samsonov gets the nod to play between the pipes tonight. He has a 9-3-1 record in his 12 starts with a 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .906 save percentage this season. In his seven starts at home, he has a 5-2-0 record with a 2.44 GAA and a .911 save percentage. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 16 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 4 straight games after a win by four or more goals. They stay on the road where they have lost 14 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season. Vegas is outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game — and the Flyers have lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. Philly has also lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Aleksei Kolosov who has a 4-7-1 record with 3.39 GAA and a .872 save percentage. In his five starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 3.37 GAA and a .872 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played against each other in Philadelphia on November 25th when the Golden Knights won by a 5-4 score. The Flyers have lost all 5 of their opportunities to avenge a same-season loss this year. 8* NHL Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (21). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-27-24 |
Avalanche -132 v. Utah Hockey Club | Top | 4-1 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (73) versus the Utah Hockey Club (74). THE SITUATION: Colorado (21-15-0) has won three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 5-2 victory against Seattle on Sunday. Utah (16-12-6) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss at home against Dallas on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has taken their game to the next level as of late by winning seven of their last nine games. They were already playing better defense lately to make things easier on their suspect goaltenders. But they pulled off a coup by trading with San Jose to bring in Mackenzie Blackwood. He has a very respectable +5.9 Goals Saved Above Expectation this season. In his four games since being acquired by the Avalanche, he has a 3-1-0 record with a 2.03 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage. He could be very good now playing behind a much better blue line in Colorado than he was with San Jose. The Avalanche have been spotty when playing at home this season — but they are taking care of business on the road where they have won 10 of their 11 games when favored this season. They have also won 12 of their 18 games on the road with the Total set at 6 or higher. Furthermore, the Avalanche has won a whopping 38 of their last 53 games against teams with a losing record. Utah has lost 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog priced up to +150. They sent out Karel Vejmelka between the pipes. He has been a pleasant surprise for the Hockey Club with a 2.33 GAA and a .917 save percentage in 18 starts. In his two career starts against Colorado, he has a 3.00 GAA and a .880 save percentage. He has been outstanding on the road where he owns a 1.91 GAA and a .929 save percentage in ten starts. But in his eight starts at home, he has a 2.79 GAA and a .905 save percentage in eight starts this season.
FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche should be highly motivated coming back from the mini-break to avenge a 4-1 loss at home to Utah on December 12th. Colorado has won 37 of their last 55 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss at home by three or more goals. 25* NHL Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (73) versus the Utah Hockey Club (74). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-10-24 |
Maple Leafs v. Devils -132 | Top | 2-1 |
Loss | -132 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New Jersey Devils (2) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (1). THE SITUATION: New Jersey (18-10-2) had won two games in a row before their 4-0 loss at home against Colorado on Sunday. Toronto (16-9-2) has lost two games in a row after their 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEVILS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New Jersey is playing good hockey. After enduring a four-game losing streak, they have since gone 13-7-0. Jack Hughes is their star — but he has been joined by Jesper Bratt with both forwards scoring more than a point per game. Defenseman Nico Hischier is an early candidate to win the Selke Trophy this season as well after already reaching double-digits in goals and assists. The Devils have won 8 of their last 11 games after losing their last game — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. They have also won 13 of their last 19 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game — and that includes winning all four of their games this season. New Jersey has been shutout out three times this season — but the Devils won all three of their games by multiple goals against stiff competition. The Devils beat the Oilers in Edmonton by a 3-0 score, they beat the Panthers in Florida by a 4-1 score, and they beat Carolina at home by a 4-2 score. Beating the two teams who played in the Stanley Cup Finals plus the perennial cup contender that are the Hurricanes by a combined 11-3 goal margin after getting shutout is impressive. Goaltending has been an issue for this team — and Jacob Markstrom has been a disappointment after being their big acquisition in the offseason. He has a 13-6-1 record with a 2.51 Goals-Against-Average and a .907 save percentage. But there are signs that he is regaining the form that made him a star as he is 2-0 in his starts this month with a 1.50 GAA and a .948 save percentage. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 6 or higher. They tend to struggle against possession teams like this New Jersey squad as well. The Devils are outshooting their opponents by +3.2 shots-per-game while holding these opponents to only 27.0 shots-per-game. The Maple Leafs have lost 12 of their last 19 games against teams who outshoot their opponents by +3.0 shots-per-game — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against these teams. Toronto averages 29.1 shots-per-game while converting on 20.0 of their Power Play opportunities this season. But New Jersey has won 7 of their last 8 games against teams who average at least 29 shots-per-game and convert on 17% or more of their Power Play chances. The Maple Leafs are getting great goaltending from Anthony Stolarz who has demonstrated — so far — that he can handle the grind of being a number one goaltender. He has an 8-5-2 record with a 2.22 GAA and a .924 save percentage. But he has stark home/road splits. In his ten starts at home, he has a 1.82 GAA and a .939 save percentage. But in his five starts on the road, he has a 3.01 GAA and a .893 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: The Devils would love to beat the Leafs for their head coach Sheldon Keefe who previously was the skipper for Toronto. They failed at their first chance this season in a 4-2 loss at home to the Maple Leafs — but they have won 12 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month with the money-line on the New Jersey Devils (2) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (1). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-03-24 |
Blue Jackets v. Flames -130 | Top | 0-3 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Calgary Flames (58) versus the Columbus Blue Jackets (57). THE SITUATION: Calgary (12-9-4) has lost four games after their 6-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Saturday. Columbus (11-9-3) has won two games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 6-3 win at Chicago on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Calgary has been feisty this season despite their current four-game losing streak. All those games were on the road — and the Flames have won 4 of their last 5 games at home after losing their previous game on the road. They have also won 6 straight home games after playing their last game on the road. And in their last 9 games at home after three or more games in a row, they have won 6 of those contests. Calgary has won 9 of their 12 games on home ice this season. Additionally, they have won 4 straight games at home when favored — and they have won 12 of their last 19 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Head coach Ryan Huska is getting great play from rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf — but tonight’s goalie Dan Vladar is also playing well. In 12 starts this season, he has a 4-5-3 record with a 2.87 Goals-Against-Average and a .900 save percentage. He has +0.9 Goals Saved Above Expectation which indicates he is playing above the league average overall. He has been quite good at home where he has a 2.23 GAA and a .923 save percentage with a shutout in four starts this year. Columbus has been playing better than expected this season, especially after the tragic death of Johnny Gaudreau. Credit goes to head coach Dean Evason for keeping this team together and working hard on a nightly basis. But this looks like a letdown spot for them after their dominant win against the Blackhawks. The Blue Jackets have lost 28 of their last 36 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after scoring six or more goals in their last contest. Columbus has lost 38 of their last 51 games on the road with the Total set at 6 or higher including eight of their eleven games at home this season with the Total at 6 or higher. They have lost 33 of their last 42 road games as an underdog including five of those seven occasions this season. They have lost 7 of their last 8 road games when priced as a money-line underdog up to +150. Furthermore, they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record. The Blue Jackets have lost 8 of their last 12 games against teams from the Western Conference — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against Western Conference rivals. Elvis Merzlikins is between the pipes tonight. He has a 8-5-2 record with a 3.07 GAA and a .894 save percentage in 14 starts. He had a good start in October — but in his ten starts since the beginning of November, he has a 3.43 GAA and a .883 save percentage. He has an underwhelming -4.1 Goals Saved Above Expectation this season. In his 21 starts on the road last season, he was saddled with a 3.85 GAA and a .884 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in Columbus on November 29th with the Blue Jackets winning by a 5-2 score with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite — and the Flames have won 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* National Hockey League Game of the Month is with the Calgary Flames (58) versus the Columbus Blue Jackets (57). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-21-24 |
Utah Hockey Club v. Bruins -134 | Top | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (8) versus the Utah Hockey Club (7). THE SITUATION: Boston (8-9-3) has lost three games in a row after their 5-1 loss to Columbus on Monday. Utah (7-8-3) has lost three of their last four games after a 6-2 loss to Washington on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston fired head coach Jim Montgomery on Tuesday — and I am expecting the proverbial fired head coach bounce tonight under interim head coach Joe Sacco. Perhaps the Bruins have overachieved the last two seasons — but this remains a veteran team with legitimate playoff expectations. David Pastrnak has been playing better after a slow start to the season. Boston has been reliable in situations like this as they have won 7 of their last 9 games after losing three games in a row — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home after losing three or more in a row. They have also won 20 of their last 32 games at home with the Total set at 6 or higher. Goalie Jeremy Swayman has been one of the team’s biggest disappointments so far this season — but backup Joonas Korpisalo has done his job and gets the start tonight. He has a 3-2-1 record with a 2.74 Goals-Against-Average and a .901 save percentage — but in his three starts at home, he sports a 2.26 GAA and a .919 save percentage. In his three games this month, he has a 1.92 GAA and a .932 save percentage with a shutout against Philadelphia. Utah started the season on a three-game winning streak in their new digs in Salt Lake City — but they have only won four games in their 15 games since. They have not scored more than two goals in four of their last six games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last contest. The Hockey Club has given up 10 combined goals in their last two games — and they have given up four or more goals in three of their last four games. Utah has lost 22 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have lost 6 of their 9 games on the road this season with the Total set at 6 or higher. They have lost 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog priced up to +150. Karel Vejmelka is their goaltender tonight. The backup to Connor Ingram has a 1-4-0 record with a 2.58 GAA and a .915 save percentage this season — but he has given up five goals in his last two games with a .872 save percentage. That is a red flag as is his 3.22 GAA and a .901 save percentage in 16 starts on the road last season.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins lost in Salt Lake City against the Hockey Club by a 2-1 score in overtime back on October 19th. Boston has won 17 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (8) versus the Utah Hockey Club (7). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-05-24 |
Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -170 | | 3-6 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (18) versus the Seattle Kraken (17). THE SITUATION: Colorado (5-7-0) has lost three games in a row after their 5-2 loss at Nashville on Saturday. Seattle (5-7-1) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 2-0 loss at Boston on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado should rebound with a strong effort tonight. The Avalanche have won 9 of their last 13 home games after a loss on the road — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games on home ice after a loss on the road against a Central Division rival. They have won 17 of their last 26 games at home in the first half of the season. They have won 18 of their last 23 home games against teams with a losing record. Colorado sends out Justus Anuunen as their goalie tonight. He has a 4-2-0 record this season with a 2.58 Goals-Against-Average and a .899 save percentage this season. Last year at home, Anuunen had a 3-1 record with a 1.37 GAA and a .951 save percentage. Seattle has lost 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also lost 19 of their last 26 games after a loss on the road — and they have lost 15 of their last 21 road games after a loss on the road. Additionally, they have lost 20 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. Furthermore, the Kraken have lost 37 of their last 54 games as an underdog including seven of their last nine games as a dog this season. They turn to Philipp Grubauer between the pipes tonight. He had a 2.75 GAA and a .903 save percentage on the road last season.
FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche won the previous meetings between these teams this season by a 3-2 score in Seattle on October 22nd. The Kraken have lost 17 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge from a loss on home ice. 8* NHL Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (18) versus the Seattle Kraken (17). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-02-24 |
Utah Hockey Club v. Golden Knights -159 | | 3-4 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (46) versus the Utah Hockey Club (45). THE SITUATION: Vegas (7-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss in Los Angeles against the Kings on Wednesday. Utah (5-4-2) ended their four-game losing streak with their 5-1 win against Calgary on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas should get back to their winning ways tonight as they have won 8 of their last 12 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival in their last game. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games at home after losing by three or more goals in their last game. Adin Hill is their goaltender tonight. In his 20 starts at home last season, he posted a 2.54 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage. Vegas has won 26 of their last 39 games at home when favored — and they have won all 7 of their games on home ice this season. Additionally, the Golden Knights have won 12 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record. Utah has lost 9 of their last 15 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They go back on the road where they have lost 19 of their last 27 games going back to their Arizona Coyotes days last season. Connor Ingram is their goalie tonight. He had a 3.23 GAA and a .899 save percentage last season in 25 starts on the road as compared to his 2.57 GAA and a .911 save percentage in 23 starts at home. This season, he has a 4.16 GAA and a .856 save percentage in four starts on the road as opposed to his 2.96 GAA and a .902 save percentage in five starts at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Utah Hockey Club/Arizona Coyotes have lost 9 of their last 10 games in Las Vegas to play the Golden Knights. 8* NHL Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (46) versus the Utah Hockey Club (45). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-01-24 |
Islanders v. Sabres -111 | | 4-3 |
Loss | -111 | 0 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (18) versus the Ottawa Senators (17). THE SITUATION: New York (6-2-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-3 loss at Washington on Tuesday. Ottawa (5-4-0) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 8-1 win against St. Louis on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should bounce back tonight as they have won 23 of their last 34 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games at home after a loss to a Metropolitan Division rival. They return home where they have won 36 of their last 52 games — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games at home against teams winning 51-60% of their games. Additionally, they have won 25 of their last 32 games at home against teams who are allowing three or more goals per game. Ottawa has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a win by four or more goals. Now they go on the road where they have lost 28 of their last 45 games with the Total set at 6 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Senators have lost 14 of their last 17 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 8* NHL Blowout Bookie Buster with the money-line on the New York Rangers (18) versus the Ottawa Senators (17). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-01-24 |
Senators v. Rangers -180 | | 1-2 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (18) versus the Ottawa Senators (17). THE SITUATION: New York (6-2-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-3 loss at Washington on Tuesday. Ottawa (5-4-0) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 8-1 win against St. Louis on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should bounce back tonight as they have won 23 of their last 34 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games at home after a loss to a Metropolitan Division rival. They return home where they have won 36 of their last 52 games — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games at home against teams winning 51-60% of their games. Additionally, they have won 25 of their last 32 games at home after allowing three or more goals in their last contest. Ottawa has lost 6 of their last 7 games after a win by four or more goals. Now they go on the road where they have lost 28 of their last 45 games with the Total set at 6 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Senators have lost 14 of their last 17 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 8* NHL Blowout Bookie Buster with the money-line on the New York Rangers (18) versus the Ottawa Senators (17). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-18-24 |
Oilers v. Panthers -130 | Top | 5-3 |
Loss | -130 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Florida Panthers (20) versus the Edmonton Oilers (19) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (67-28-8) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in an 8-1 loss on the road against the Oilers on Saturday. Edmonton (62-35-7) still looks to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: After a frustrating first three games against Florida, almost everything went right for the Oilers in Game Four. Connor McDavid finally scored a goal. Edmonton finally scored on a power play — and they also began the game by scoring a shorthanded goal. The Oilers’ pressure knocked the Panthers’ goalie Sergei Bobrovsky out of the game after scoring five goals against him on 16 shots. Stuart Skinner played his best game in the series — and perhaps the entire postseason — by stopping 32 of the 33 shots he faced. Admittedly, the deeper analytics indicated that the series was closer than the 3-0 margin suggested. Edmonton probably should have won Game One. But there are still some larger issues that are trending in Florida’s favor despite the loss on Saturday. The Oilers had a sense of urgency to avoid being swept and seeing the Panthers lift the cup in their building. And Florida had the confidence that only one of 28 teams in the history of the NHL had rallied back from an 0-3 deficit to win in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Panthers’ forechecking approach is still working to wear down Edmonton — and head coach Paul Maurice has been keeping his players fresher due to Florida’s deeper bench. Now back at home, Maurice has the advantage of the final line change — and he can better take advantage of the Oilers’ defensive pairing of Darnell Nurse and Codi Ceci who have been weak links for them all postseason. Edmonton has still scored on only one power play in their 16 opportunities with the man advantage after going just one of six on Saturday. Maurice blamed the play of the defense rather than Bobrovsky post-game — and the two-time Vezina Trophy winner has a 4-1 record in his last five playoff games following a loss with a 1.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage. He returns home where he has a .973 save percentage in his last three games — and he only gave up one goal on the 51 shots he faced against the Oilers in Games One and Two of this series. Skinner, on the other hand, has a .890 save percentage in his last eight road games this postseason — and he had a .889 save percentage in the first two games of this series in Florida’s building. Edmonton has lost 11 of their last 18 road games against Eastern Conference teams — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 road games when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. Florida has won 22 of their last 35 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after allowing five or more goals in their last game — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games after a game where nine or more goals were scored. They have also won 15 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Back at home, the Panthers have won 8 of their 11 games in these playoffs — and they have won 11 of their last 16 home games with the total set at 5.5. Florida has also won 15 of their last 20 playoff games when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers lost Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals last year to Vegas by a 9-3 score — and they did not get the chance for revenge for that blowout loss until the next season since the Golden Knights lifted the cup that night. Florida has their chance to redeem themselves from another bad loss tonight while also fulfilling their dream of winning the championship. The Panthers have won 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss by three or more goals. 25* NHL Game of the Year with the money-line on the Florida Panthers (20) versus the Edmonton Oilers (19). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-31-24 |
Oilers v. Stars -120 | | 3-1 |
Loss | -120 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (60) versus the Edmonton Oilers (59) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (59-32-7) snapped their two-game losing streak in this series with a 5-2 victory on Wednesday. Dallas (62-26-11) returns home with this series tied at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas took an early 2-0 lead in the first period on Wednesday -- but the Oilers scored the final five goals in the game for the decisive win. Defenseman Chis Tanev left the game midway through the second period after taking a puck to the ankle. He is listed as questionable and was in a walking boot yesterday. Head coach Peter DeBoer is "optimistic" he will play tonight -- especially given the stakes involved -- but it will be a game-time decision. Even if the Stars do not have the services of Tanev tonight, expect an inspired effort after the blowout loss. Dallas has won 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by two or more goals — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after a loss by three or more goals. The Stars have won 44 of their last 62 games after allowing four or more goals in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 12 games after allowing five or more goals in their last game. And while they have given up eight goals in the last two games, they have then won 35 of their last 50 games after allowing three or more goals in two games in a row. Goalie Jake Oettinger should play better tonight. He has a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average along with a .917 save percentage in his 17 games this postseason. At home in Games One and Two of this series, he stopped 63 of the 67 shots he faced for a .940 save percentage. Edmonton’s goaltender Stuart Skinner is not as good — and while he has played better since his return from getting benched, he still has been very inconsistent all season. In his 14 playoff games this year, he has a 2.71 GAA and a .887 save percentage — and those numbers are right in line with his career 3.12 GAA and .885 save percentage in 26 career playoff games. The Oilers have lost 7 of their last 11 games after winning their previous game. They have also lost 6 of their last 9 games after scoring five or more goals in their last game. Furthermore, Edmonton has lost 11 of their last 19 games on the road. And in their last 8 games in the Western Conference Finals, they have lost 6 of those games. They were in this position on the road in Game Five against Vancouver in a 2-2 series last round — and they lost that game.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has won all 4 playoff games this season when the series was tied. The Stars have also won 21 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss on the road by two or more goals including five of those six circumstances this season. 25* NHL Western Conference Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (60) versus the Edmonton Oilers (59). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-30-24 |
Panthers -123 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Florida Panthers (57) versus the New York Rangers (58) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (62-27-8) has won six of their last nine games after pulling out a 3-2 win at home in overtime on Tuesday. New York (65-27-4) had won Games Two and Three — so this series is tied at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Florida has outplayed the Rangers in this series. If not for overtime losses in Games Two and Three, the Panthers could be attempting to wrap this series up tonight — or it could already be over. The most dominant aspect of this series has been Florida’s forechecking which has allowed them to dominate puck possession and shot attempts. In Games Three and Four, the Panthers outshot New York by a 197-87 margin pure shot attempts — and by a 77-46 margin shots on target (that were not blocked by a player). Florida has generated 33 High Danger Chances in the last two games while the Rangers have only 14 High Danger Chances. Overall, the Panthers have produced 7.59 expected Goals (xG) in Games Three and Four — and they have held New York to only 3.88 xG in these two games. Florida’s play on defense has been outstanding throughout the postseason. They lead all teams in the postseason in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) — and they have given up the fewest High Danger Chances. They have also given up the fewest Power Play goals in the playoffs as well. What is encouraging for the Panthers as the series has moved forward has been their Power Play. After going 0-3 in Game One, they have scored in five of their last 12 Power Plays against the Rangers. They rank second in the postseason in Power Play goals. They rank third in High Danger Chances generated and third in the postseason in Corsi-For Percentage. I expect Florida to put their foot on the accelerator in this crucial Game Five. The Panthers have won 40 of their last 61 games after winning their last game. They have also won 23 of their last 30 games after a win at home — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a victory at home by one goal. They have scored seven combined goals in their last two games — and they have won 34 of their last 50 games after scoring three or more goals in their last two games. Florida has also been very good when playing away from home. The Panthers have won 21 of their last 29 road games in the second half of the season — and they have won 13 of their last 19 games on the road in the playoffs in the last two years. New York’s underlying metrics in these playoffs are underwhelming. They rank 14th in Corsi-For Percentage, ninth in expected Goals Percentage, and last of the final four teams in expected Goals-For Percentage. They are last of the final four teams in Power Play goals. They are not getting production from some key players — Mike Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have yet to register a point. Adam Fox may be trying to play through an injury — and he was shaky in Game Four. The Rangers have lost 12 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by one goal. They have also lost 8 of their last 11 games at home after losing in overtime in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: New York has lost 5 of their last 8 games when the playoff series is tied — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 fifth games in a playoff series. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year is with the money-line on the Florida Panthers (57) versus the New York Rangers (58). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-28-24 |
Rangers v. Panthers -158 | | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Florida Panthers (54) versus the New York Rangers (53) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. Florida (61-27-8) has lost the last two games in this series after their 5-4 loss in overtime at home to the Rangers on Sunday afternoon. New York (65-27-3) has won three of their last four games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Florida outplayed the Rangers on Sunday — they generated an expected Goal Share at five-on-five of 69.19%. They out-shot New York in the third period by a 41-11 margin (including blocked and shots not on target) with their forechecking dominating the tempo. They were also controlling the play in overtime — but Alex Wennberg stunned the Panthers with the winning goal at the 5:35-minute mark. Florida has rebounded to win 21 of their last 34 games after losing their last game. And while they lost Game Two in overtime as well, they have won 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row. The Panthers have also won 8 of their last 12 home games after a game where both teams scored three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a game where nine or more combined goals were scored. New York has lost 13 of their last 22 games after winning two games in a row in overtime. The Rangers have also lost 4 of their last 6 fourth games in a playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have won 12 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss at home. 8* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Florida Panthers (54) versus the New York Rangers (53). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-25-24 |
Oilers v. Stars -127 | Top | 1-3 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (48) versus the Edmonton Oilers (47) in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-25-11) has lost two of their last three games after losing the opening game of this best-of-seven series in a 3-2 loss in double-overtime on Thursday. Edmonton (58-30-7) has won three games in a row. REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas has been resilient throughout this postseason. They rallied from an 0-2 deficit to dethrone the Vegas Golden Knights in the opening round of the playoffs. They rebounded from a Game One loss at home against Colorado and won Game Two by a 5-3 score. The Stars have won 24 of their last 35 games after losing their last game — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after losing their last game on home ice. Furthermore, Dallas has won 15 of their last 23 games after losing two of their last three games. They have played two straight games that finished Under the Total — and they have won 18 of their last 25 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. The Total has dropped to 5.5 in many locations — and the Stars have won 34 of their last 53 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Edmonton has lost 13 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. They have also still lost 4 of their last 5 games in the Western Conference Finals. They played about as good of a game as they have all postseason in Game One on Thursday — but they still needed double-overtime to survive that game after giving up a late goal in regulation to even that score up. The Oilers give up too many High Danger Chances — they entered this series ranking seventh of the 16 playoff teams in the metric this postseason. And then there is goalie Stuart Skinner who has played three good games in a row after stopping 31 of the 33 shots he faced on Thursday. Skinner still has a 2.70 Goals-Against-Average and a .888 save percentage in his 11 playoff starts this postseason. FINAL TAKE: Dallas expects to see top-line forward Roope Hintz return to the ice tonight after he missed the last three games. The Stars have won 11 of their last 15 games when trailing in a playoff series. 25* NHL Saturday TNT Game of the Year with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (48) versus the Edmonton Oilers (47). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-20-24 |
Oilers v. Canucks +144 | Top | 3-2 |
Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vancouver Canucks (36) versus the Edmonton Oilers (35) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vancouver (57-27-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-1 loss on the road against the Oilers on Saturday. Edmonton (56-30-7) has won six of their last nine games after tying this series at 3-3. REASONS TO TAKE THE CANUCKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vancouver has some work to do still — but they put themselves in the driver’s seat in this series by winning Game Five at home by a 3-2 score. They got dominated in Edmonton in Game Six — but that sets them up to rebound with a resilient effort tonight against this inconsistent Oilers team. The Canucks have won 27 of their last 36 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after losing to a fellow Pacific Division rival. Additionally, they have won 14 of their last 19 games after losing on the road in their previous game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after losing by three or more goals to a divisional opponent. Arturs Silovs is the better goaltender tonight. His 2.89 Goals-Against-Average and .898 save percentage in his nine starts this postseason do not inspire a ton of confidence — but he does register +0.6 Goals Saved Above Expected so he is playing above average the midrange goaltenders in the league. In that crucial Game Five, he stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced. He also has big-game experience after leading Latvia to an unexpected Bronze medal in the 2023 World Championship that culminated in an upset victory against the USA. Getting this game at home will help since it allows head coach Rick Tocchet to ensure that his defenseman Quinn Hughes is on the ice when Edmonton’s star forward Connor McDavid is playing. The Canucks have won two of the three games at home in this series while scoring 11 goals. Vancouver has won 13 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Edmonton remains inconsistent — they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring five or more goals in their last game. They have also lost 12 of their last 20 games against teams using a goaltender with a regular season save percentage no higher than .895 — so it’s not like they only lose to great goaltenders. And there is the weak link which is their goalie Stuart Skinner. In his nine starts in the playoffs this season, he has a 2.97 GAA and a .881 save percentage. More telling, he has a -2.9 Goals Saved Above Expectation which indicates he has been well below the average goalie in this series. Unfortunately, these postseason struggles are nothing new. In his 21 career playoff starts, he has a 3.36 GAA and a .882 save percentage. His struggles early in the year got head coach Jay Woodcroft fired. He also plays worse when on the road. While he had a 2.49 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 32 regular season starts, those numbers rose to a 2.80 GAA and a .894 save percentage in 27 games on the road this season. In his two starts in Vancouver in this series, he has allowed eight goals with a .814 save percentage. He did look better in Game Six after getting benched the two previous games — but he only faced 15 shots. The Canucks need more activity against him tonight — and they do average 27.7 shots when playing at home. The Oilers are not a great defensive team either to make things easier on Skinner. They rank 10th of the 16 postseason teams in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) and 14th in High Danger Chances Allowed — and both of those stats are independent of Skinner’s subpar play. Furthermore, Edmonton has lost 10 of their last 16 games on the road. FINAL TAKE: The analytics love Edmonton — and those laptops have indicated that Vancouver has overachieved this season. A deeper look at those numbers suggests that the Canucks exceeding expectations was mostly during their hot start — but they were a good team according to the analytics in the second half of the season. They will be without forward Brock Boeser tonight due to an undisclosed injury which is a huge blow and gave me pause — but they still have star talent with Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Hughes. Most importantly, this team has something the Oilers lack: heart. Even without star goaltender Thatcher Demko, they still find themselves in a Game Seven at home against this Oilers team with the better metrics. Vancouver has won 18 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vancouver Canucks (36) versus the Edmonton Oilers (35). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-17-24 |
Panthers -137 v. Bruins | Top | 2-1 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Florida Panthers (17) versus the Boston Bruins (18) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Florida (59-27-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped with their 2-1 loss at home to the Bruins on Tuesday. Boston (53-26-15) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin. REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Florida should bounce back and win this series tonight. Despite the loss earlier in the week, they still rank second of all teams in the postseason in Corsi percentage which is what they ranked in the regular season. They also lead all playoff teams in expected Goals Share, High Danger Chances, and expected Goals Allowed. The Panthers have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss to a fellow Atlantic Division rival. They have also won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss by only one goal — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a divisional rival by just one goal. Florida has not allowed more than two goals in four straight games — and they have won 24 of their last 31 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. They have also won 20 of their last 24 games after not allowing more than two goals in four straight games. Sergei Bobrovsky has been outstanding when playing away from home — he posted a 2.21 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in 28 starts on the road in the regular season. The Panthers have won 19 of their last 26 games on the road. They have also won 13 of their last 14 games when playing with two days of rest. Boston hopes to get Brad Marchand back on the ice tonight — but the Bruins have been getting outplayed throughout the postseason even when they have Marchand. They rank just seventh of all 16 playoff teams in Corsi percentage and tenth in expected goals share. On defense, Boston ranks last of all remaining teams in expected Goals Allowed and sixth in the Power Play Kill Unit. Boston has lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last game. They have not defended their home ice well either — they have lost 12 of their last 21 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Furthermore, the Bruins have lost 6 of their last 8 games played at home — and they have lost 5 straight games at TDG Garden against the Panthers. FINAL TAKE: Florida has won 11 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge after a loss at home to their current opponent. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Florida Panthers (17) versus the Boston Bruins (18). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-13-24 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers -104 | | 4-1 |
Loss | -104 | 1 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (61-25-4) had won nine games in a row before their 4-3 loss at home to the Hurricanes on Saturday. Carolina (57-24-10) staved off elimination with the victory but still trails by a 3-1 margin in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should end this series tonight. The Rangers have bounced back to win 19 of their last 27 games after losing their previous game. They have also won 24 of their last 36 games after a loss to a Metropolitan Division rival — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road to a divisional opponent. Additionally, they have won 43 of their last 9 home games after playing a game where seven or more combined goals were scored — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored three or more goals. They have still won 27 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. They have scored at least three goals in ten straight contests — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games after scoring three or more goals in four or more games in a row. They return home where they have won 6 games in a row — and they have won 18 of their last 23 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Carolina has lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning their previous game by one goal. The Hurricanes have surrendered at least three goals in six straight contests — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games after allowing three or more goals in four or more games in a row. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road after allowing three or more goals in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 17 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they gave up four or more goals. 8* NHL Carolina-NY Rangers ESPN Special with the money-line on the New York Rangers (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-11-24 |
Rangers v. Hurricanes -142 | Top | 3-4 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (54) versus the New York Rangers (53) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (56-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 3-2 loss in overtime at home to the Rangers on Thursday. New York (61-24-4) has won nine games in a row and has a 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Carolina continues to not catch a break — their last eight losses in the postseason have been by just one goal. Three of their last four losses in this postseason have been in overtime including the last two games of this series. They have out-shot the Rangers in all three games of this series. I expect a visit from the Regression Gods — the underlying numbers indicate this has been an even series. New York holds the edge in expected Goals-For% — but with a narrow 50.7% clip. Carolina is not going to fold in the towel tonight — they have won 10 straight games at home after a loss to a Metropolitan Division rival. They have also won 18 of their last 22 games after a loss to a divisional foe — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by one goal to a Metro opponent. Additionally, they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing two or more games in a row by one goal. They have won 7 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Head coach Rod Brind’amour turned to rookie Pyotr Kochetkov in Game Three after Frederik Andersen logged in 87:24 minutes in the double-overtime loss on Tuesday. Kocketkov stopped 22 of the 25 shots he faced — but he was mediocre with a -0. Goals Saved Above Expectation clip. Andersen was sensational when playing at home in the regular season where he enjoyed a 1.39 Goals-Against-Average and a .946 save percentage in ten starts. Carolina has won 28 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 5.5. New York has won all seven of their playoff games this year — they look to become the first team in the history of the Stanley Cup playoffs to win and sweep the first two playoff series since those rounds got expanded to seven-game series in 1987. Even the 1994 championship run for the New York Rangers led by Mark Messier did not see them win their first eight contests — that team’s first loss was the fourth game in the second round against Washington after a 7-0 start in that postseason. The Rangers have lost 15 of their last 20 games after winning three or more games in a row by one goal. The difference in this series has been on special teams. New York has scored four power-play goals in their 13 opportunities — and they have stymied the Hurricanes in all 15 of their power plays with the man advantage. The Rangers scored on a short-handed goal on Thursday which turned out to be a critical goal to force overtime where they won for the second straight game. FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have won 17 of their last 24 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. They have also won 7 of their last 11 games when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses where they allowed three or more goals — and they have won 4 of their last 6 games when playing with the dreaded triple-revenge motivation. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (54) versus the New York Rangers (53). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-22-24 |
Kings v. Oilers -163 | | 4-7 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (65) versus the Los Angeles Kings (64) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (49-27-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 5-1 loss at Colorado on Thursday. Los Angeles (43-28-11) has won three of their last four games after a 5-4 victory against Chicago on Thursday. REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton has only won once in their last five games despite good underlying numbers. They have outplayed their last six opponents according to the expected goals-for numbers during a stretch that includes playoff teams Vegas, Vancouver, and Colorado. The Oilers have generated a 61.3% expected goals-for mark in their last six games — and they have eclipsed a 60% expected goals-for number in five of those six games. This team is due for a visit from the Regression Gods. Edmonton has won 19 of their last 31 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games when playing with three or more days of rest. And while they have only scored three combined goals in their last two games, they have then won 5 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than two goals in two straight games. Both of those games were on the road — they return home for the first two games of this series where they have won 27 of their last 40 games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Los Angeles enjoyed a favorable schedule down the stretch with their last five opponents being teams who failed to make the playoffs — and their last four games were at home. The Kings have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And goalie Cam Talbot has been saddled with a .879 save percentage in his last four starts. FINAL TAKE: The Oilers won three of the four regular-season contests between these two teams after a 4-1 victory at home against the Kings on March 28th. Los Angeles has lost 11 of their last 17 opportunities to avenge a loss by two or more goals. 8* NHL Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (65) versus the Los Angeles Kings (64). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-13-24 |
Canucks v. Oilers -107 | Top | 3-1 |
Loss | -107 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (22) versus the Vancouver Canucks (21). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (48-24-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss in overtime to Arizona last night. Vancouver (48-22-9) has lost five of their last eight games after their 4-3 loss to Arizona on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton has still won 24 of their last 32 games played in the month of April despite their upset loss to a feisty Coyotes squad last night. The Oilers have played three straight Unders — and they have won 26 of their last 32 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. This is their third game since Wednesday — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games. On their home ice this season, Edmonton has a 27-8-4 record. The Oilers had Calvin Pickard in goal last night — so Stuart Skinner returns to the ice tonight. He has a 2.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .913 save percentage in his 30 starts at home this season. In his three previous starts this month, he has a 1.98 GAA and a .914 save percentage. Vancouver had won seven straight games against non-playoff teams before Arizona upset them on Wednesday. But the Canucks have struggled against the better teams in the league. Vancouver has lost 20 of their last 26 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games including five these last six games. They have been playing higher-scoring games lately after three straight games where seven or more combined goals were scored. Vancouver ranks 20th in the NHL in allowing High Danger Chances — and that makes the current absence of injured goaltender Thatcher Demko even more precarious. Casey DeSmith gets the start again tonight — but he has a 3.33 GAA and a .887 save percentage in 15 starts on the road. In his two starts earlier this month, he has been saddled with a 6.00 GAA and a .797 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: Vancouver has won the first three meetings between these two teams after a 6-2 victory on November 6th. Those autumn days were back when the Oilers opened the season in a terrible slump that they have since addressed. Edmonton has won 12 of their last 14 opportunities to avenge a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (22) versus the Vancouver Canucks (21). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-13-24 |
Red Wings v. Maple Leafs -162 | | 5-4 |
Loss | -162 | 0 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (16) versus the Detroit Red Wings (15). THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-25-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 6-5 loss to New Jersey on Thursday. Detroit (38-33-8) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests after a 6-5 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAPLE LEAFS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Despite the upset loss to the Devils on Thursday, Toronto is playing good hockey as the postseason approaches next week. They have still won six of their last eight games — and they have won the expected goals battle in five of their last six games with a stout 58.6% expected goal-for-share during that span. The Maple Leafs have won 8 of their last 12 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also won 6 of their 7 games this season after alloying six or more goals in their last game. They have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing their previous game at home this season . Toronto ranks top-five in the league in Goals-Per-Game and High Danger Scoring Chances generated. They have won 12 of their last 16 games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record. Detroit fell on the outside looking in for the playoff race after losing to a Penguins team that is now one point ahead of them for the final slot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Red Wings have overachieved their underlying metrics. Despite an actual goal share of 54.5% in the last two weeks, their expected Goals-For is only 45.3% in those games — and they have lost the expected goals battle in four of their last six games. Detroit has lost 32 of their last 43 games on the road after losing their previous game — and they have lost 19 of their last 22 games on the road after a loss by one goal. They have also lost 9 of their last 12 games after playing where both teams score four or more goals.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto wants to avenge a 4-2 loss at home to the Red Wings on January 14th — and they have won 20 of their last 28 home games when playing with revenge for a loss at home by two more goals. 8* NHL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (16) versus the Detroit Red Wings (15). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-13-24 |
Islanders v. Rangers -161 | | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 4 m | Show |
At 12:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (2) versus the New York Islanders (1). THE SITUATION: The New York Rangers (52-24-4) have lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. The New York Islanders (37-27-5) have won six games in a row after their 3-2 victory against Montreal on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Rangers still have much to play for as they are trying to hold off Carolina for the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Despite posting a 3-3-0 record in their last six games, they have won the expected goals battle in five of those contests — and they sport a 58.1% expected Goals-For mark in their last six games. Their luck should change this afternoon. The Rangers have won 18 of their last 26 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have given up four goals in two straight games — but they have won 10 straight games at home after allowing three or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have won 5 of their last 7 games at home at Madison Square Garden — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games in the second half of the season against losing teams. The Islanders have lost 15 of their last 22 games on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also lost 19 of their last 27 road games with the Total set at 5.5. Ilya Sorokin is between the pipes for them this afternoon — but he has a 3.31 Goals-Against-Average and a .900 save percentage in his 25 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Islanders upset the Rangers on Tuesday by a 4-2 score — but the Rangers have won 20 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. Ilya Shesterkin gave up three goals in the last in that one — and he is back in net to get some sweet revenge after getting Thursday’s game off. 8* NHL NY Islanders-NY Rangers ABC-TV Special with the New York Rangers (2) versus the New York Islanders (1). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-09-24 |
Wild v. Avalanche -190 | | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
At 9:37 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (20) versus the Minnesota Wild (19). THE SITUATION: Colorado (48-24-6) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests after their 7-4 loss to Dallas on Sunday. Minnesota (37-30-10) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 4-0 victory against Chicago on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Wild are due for a letdown tonight since they have lost 8 of their last 12 games after shutting out their previous opponent. Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 19 games on the road after a win against a Central Division rival — and they have lost 16 of their last 24 road games after a loss by three or more goals. Additionally, they have lost 26 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning record. Colorado has won 6 of their last 8 games after losing to a fellow Central Division rival. Additionally, the Avalanche have lost 7 of their last 10 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have won straight games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Colorado has played three straight Overs with goaltending continuing to be their Achilles’ heel — but they have won 9 of their last 12 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Avalanche have won 17 of their last 19 games at home against teams with a losing record. They have also won 16 of their last 17 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams just played last Thursday with the Avalanche winning by a 5-2 score in Minnesota. The Wild have lost 6 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss at home by two or more goals. 8* NHL Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (20) versus the Minnesota Wild (19). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-03-24 |
Seattle Kraken v. Kings -171 | | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (74) versus the Seattle Kraken (73). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-26-11) has lost three games in a row after their 4-3 loss at Winnipeg on Monday. Seattle (31-30-13) has won three of their last four games after their 4-2 win at San Jose on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Kraken needs a minor miracle to make the playoffs this season. They have had success beating Anaheim twice and the Sharks in their last four games — but they have lost 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Seattle has lost 11 of their last 18 games after a win by more than one goal. They have lost 15 of their last 24 games after scoring four or more goals in their last contest. In their last 15 games, they rank 25th in the NHL with just a 2.92 expected goals per 60-minute mark. The Kraken have lost 14 of their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also lost 24 of their last 38 games on the road with the Total set at 5.5. Los Angeles returns home after finishing a four-game road trip. They still have a 15-10-1 record since the All-Star break and are in position to play in the postseason. The Kings have given up four goals in three straight games — but they have won 16 of their last 22 games after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing four or more goals in three straight games. Despite this slump on defense, they are still only giving up 2.50 Goals-Per-Game in their last 15 contests.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles wants to avenge a 2-1 loss at home against Seattle back on December 20th — and they have won 11 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss by just one goal. 8* NHL Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (74) versus the Seattle Kraken (73). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-03-24 |
Penguins v. Oilers -189 | | 1-6 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (12) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (11). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (36-20-2) has won three games in a row after their 2-1 win at Seattle yesterday. Pittsburgh (27-23-8) has lost two games in a row after their 4-3 loss at Calgary on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: After slumping for most of February after their red-hot start to the new year, Edmonton has not allowed more than two goals in three straight games during their current run. The Oilers have won 27 of their last 25 games after a win or tie in their last game. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after winning on the road against a Pacific Division rival. Additionally, they have won 10 games in a row after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They have won 6 straight games after winning their last game on the road by just one goal. And in their last 12 games after not allowing more than two goals in two or more games in a row, they have won 11 of those contests. Calvin Pickard is between the pipes for them tonight sporting a solid 2.27 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage in his four previous starts at home. Pittsburgh has lost 11 of their last 15 games on the road after losing their previous game on the road. They complete their four-game road trip which included a visit to Seattle on Thursday — and they have lost 16 of their last 24 games when playing for the third time in five days. And while the Oilers are a strong possession team that outshoots their opponents by +5.1 shots per game, the Penguins have lost 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who outshoot their opponents by three or more shots per game. With Tristan Jarry having played yesterday, the Pens turn to Alex Nedeljkovic as their goaltender tonight. He has an underwhelming 2.98 GAA and a .907 save percentage in his nine previous games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has won 20 of their last 30 games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 14 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams winning only 40-49% of their games. 8* NHL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (12) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (11). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-17-24 |
Hurricanes v. Golden Knights -108 | Top | 3-1 |
Loss | -108 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (24) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (23). THE SITUATION: Vegas (31-16-6) had won two games in a row before their 5-3 loss to Minnesota on Monday. Carolina (31-17-5) has won three of their last four games after their 5-1 win at Arizona last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas has been playing better lately as they had won four of five games before their loss to the Wild to begin the week. Despite being without Shea Theodore and now Jack Eichel, they are still scoring 3.36 Goals-Per-Game in their last 11 contests since Eichel’s injury, ranking ninth in the NHL over that span. The Golden Knights have won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have won 18 of their last 26 games after a loss at home by two or more goals. Additionally, they have won 13 of their last 20 games after winning two of their last three games. Vegas has been tough when playing on home ice at the Fortress — they have a 19-6-2 record at home this season. Adin Hill is expected to be their starting goaltender tonight. He has a 1.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .937 save percentage when playing at home this season. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 Goals-Per-Game, the Golden Knights have won 12 of their last 16 games against opponents outscoring their opponents by +0.3 or more Goals-Per-Game. Carolina has lost 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while this is their third game on the road since Tuesday, they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. The Hurricanes are at a situational disadvantage playing this game without rest against a Vegas team that has not played since Monday. Spencer Martin appears to be their goaltender tonight to make his second start for the team after getting acquired from Columbus. In his six games (five starts) on the road, he has been saddled with a 3.95 GAA and a .874 save percentage. The Hurricanes are outstanding at home where they have a 17-6-4 record — but they are just 13-11-1 on the road. The Golden Knights average 31.2 shots per game — and Carolina has lost 26 of their last 42 games on the road in the second half of the season against teams who average 29.5 or more shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: Vegas wants to avenge a 6-3 loss at Carolina on December 19th — and they have won 45 of their last 62 games when playing with revenge. They have also won 22 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge from a loss by two or more goals — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss where they gave up five or more goals. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the Vegas Golden Knights (24) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (23). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-27-24 |
Maple Leafs v. Jets -122 | Top | 4-2 |
Loss | -122 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (46) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (45). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (30-11-5) has lost two games in a row after their 1-0 loss at Toronto on Wednesday. Toronto (23-15-8) has won three of their last four games after that shutout win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg has only scored one goal in their last two games — but they have then won 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than one goal in two straight games. They have also won 8 of their last 12 games after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. But what makes this Winnipeg go in what has been a dominant stretch since the beginning of December has been their defense and goaltending. The Jets have allowed more than three goals just once in their last 36 games — and they have held 15 of their last 16 opponents to two goals or less. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has been as good as at any time in his career this season. He has a 2.17 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 34 starts this season — and in his eight starts this month, he has a 1.63 GAA along with a .945 save percentage. The Jets have played three straight Unders — and they have won 31 of their last 41 home games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also won 22 of their last 27 home games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have a 16-8 record this season while holding their guests to 2.3 Goals-Per-Game. Winnipeg should get their scoring attack cranked up tonight as they are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game on their home ice. The Jets have won 39 of their last 56 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher including 14 of their 19 home games this season with the Totals set at 6 or higher. Toronto scores 3.5 Goals-Per-Game — but Winnipeg has won 18 of their last 27 games against teams who score 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. But the Maple Leafs give up 3.2 Goals-Per-Game — so their shutout on Wednesday was a rare occurrence. Ilya Samsonov stopped all 32 shots he faced in that game — but now he goes back on the road where he has a 3.61 GAA and a .867 save percentage in his ten starts away from home. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games after winning three of their last four contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have won 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a shutout loss. 25* NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (46) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (45). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-16-24 |
Islanders v. Jets -180 | | 2-4 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (32) versus the New York Islanders (31). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (28-10-4) had their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 2-0 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday. The New York Islanders (19-14-10) have lost four of their last five games after their 5-0 loss at Minnesota yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg should bounce back tonight as they have won 13 of their last 17 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also won 9 of their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest between contests. And while the Jets have played three straight Unders, they have then won 21 of their last 26 home games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They stay at home where they have won 13 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Connor Hellebuyck is their confirmed starter tonight as he looks to continue his outstanding month after posting a 1.42 Goals-Against-Average and a .955 in his first five starts in January. New York has lost 5 games in a row when playing without a day of rest. This is their third game on the road since Saturday — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games when playing for the third time in the last four days on the road. The defensive play of this team has collapsed as they have given up 3.64 Goals-Per-Game in the last month — and the underlying metrics are only a little better with them posting a 3.48 expected Goals Allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes in the last month. The Islanders have lost 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by two or more goals. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. And while the Islanders have only scored once in their last two games, they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than one goal in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets will be without Mark Scheifele tonight — but they get Kyle Conner back after he missed several weeks. New York has lost 11 of their last 17 games against teams from the Western Conference. 8* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (32) versus the New York Islanders (31). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-10-24 |
Golden Knights v. Avalanche -133 | | 0-3 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (26) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (25). THE SITUATION: Colorado (26-12-3) has won five of their last six games after their 4-3 win against Boston on Monday. Vegas (23-12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 5-2 win against the New York Islanders on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado should continue to build on their momentum as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by just one goal in their last game. And while they have scored at least four goals in four straight games, they have then won 15 of their last 21 games after scoring four or more goals in four or more games in a row. The Avalanche stay at home where they have won 17 of their last 22 games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Vegas has lost 9 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also lost 17 of their last 26 games in January. After a 11-0-1 start to the season, the reigning Stanley Cup champions have been basically a .500 team with a 12-12-4 mark. Injuries have played a big role with defenseman Shea Theodore, center William Karlsson, and left wing William Carrier amongst their big names out tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing 7-0 loss to the Golden Knights in Las Vegas on November 4th — and they have won 21 o their last 30 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up five or more goals. The Aves have also won 9 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss by four or more goals. 8* NHL Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (26) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (25). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-04-24 |
Red Wings v. Kings -168 | | 4-3 |
Loss | -168 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (24) versus the Detroit Red Wings (23). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (21-10-4) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss to Toronto on Tuesday. Detroit (18-17-3) has won two of their last three games after their 5-3 victory at San Jose on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS WIT THE MONEY-LINE: Despite the recent losing run, Los Angeles is playing well. They have registered an expected goals-for rating of 59.7% or higher in five of their last eight games with a 58.6% expected goals-for mark overall in those eight contests. And while they have out-chanced six of their last eight opponents in situations classified as quality opportunities, they have had bad shooting luck hold them back. But the Kings have won 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They have also won 7 of their last 11 games after losing two games in a row at home — and they have won 8 of their last 13 games after losing three games in a row. Detroit has won only ten games in their 23 contests — and they rank eighth from the bottom of the league in points during that span. Since November 13th, they have posted a low 45.2% expected goals-for rating. They have seen eight or more goals scored in four straight games — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after playing two or more games in a row after playing two or more games in a row where eight or combined goals were scored. The Red Wings have allowed at least three goals in eight straight contests — and they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after allowing three or more goals in three or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has lost 34 of their last 43 games against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and the Kings have won 10 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. 8* NHL Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (24) versus the Detroit Red Wings (23). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-02-24 |
Islanders v. Avalanche -172 | | 4-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (58) versus the New York Islanders (57). THE SITUATION: Colorado (23-11-3) has won four of their last five games after their 3-1 victory against San Jose on Sunday. New York (17-10-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado is beginning to roll now — and they have won 51 of their last 73 games after winning four of their last five games. They have aisles won 29 of their last 36 games after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. Their win against the Sharks came on the heels of a 2-1 win at St. Louis last Friday — and they have won 6 straight games after playing two straight games where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Aves stay at home where they have won 15 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 6 or higher. The Avalanche have also won 13 of their last 20 games against teams with a losing record. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. They have lost 6 games in a row after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Islanders have not scored more than one goal in two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: The Islanders want to avenge a 7-4 loss at home to Colorado on October 24th — but they have lost 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by two or more goals. 8* NHL Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (58) versus the New York Islanders (57). Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
12-15-23 |
Sharks v. Coyotes -190 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Coyotes (56) versus the San Jose Sharks (55). THE SITUATION: Arizona (12-13-3) has lost four games in a row after their 4-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Tuesday. San Jose (9-17-3) has won three of their last four games after a 2-1 victory against Winnipeg on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COYOTES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona returns home after playing their last three games on the road — and they have won 10 of their last 15 home games after losing their last game on the road. The Coyotes have won 4 of their last 5 games on their home ice. Connor Ingram is between the pipes for Arizona — and he has been more effective when playing in front of the home fans. While Ingram has a 3.09 Goals-Against-Average and a .912 save percentage on the road, those numbers significantly improve in his ten games (nine starts) at home where he enjoys a 2.16 GAA and a .927 save percentage. San Jose had allowed four or more goals in four straight games — and they gave up five or more goals in three of those games — before their victory on Tuesday. But the Sharks have lost 13 of their last 16 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. They have also lost 14 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four games. After a nightmare 0-10-1 start, San Jose is playing better — but they have also been fortunate to win five of their last seven games decided by one goal. They have lost 5 of their last 8 games after a win or tie in their last contest — and they have lost 21 of their last 31 games after a victory at home. They have also lost 17 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. They go back on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 13 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Furthermore, the Sharks have lost 22 of their last 24 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose is surrendering 36.7 shots per game while getting outshot by -10.7 shots per game — and the Coyotes have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are getting outshot by -3.0 or more shots per game. 8* NHL Friday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Coyotes (56) versus the San Jose Sharks (55). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-12-23 |
Flames v. Golden Knights -190 | | 4-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Vegas Golden Knights (14) with the money-line versus the Calgary Flames (13). THE SITUATION: Vegas (19-5-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six contests after their 5-4 win against San Jose on Sunday. Calgary (11-14-3) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after a 6-5 loss at Colorado last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas should build off their recent momentum as they have won 5 of their last 6 games after beating a Pacific Division rival — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row. They have also won 46 of their last 65 games after a one-goal victory against a divisional rival. The Golden Knights have played three straight Overs after scoring at least five goals in each of those contests — and they have won 16 of their last 20 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring four or more goals in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have won 9 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Logan Thompson will be between the pipes tonight where he has a 1.61 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage in his five home starts this season. Vegas has the best record in the NHL again with a balanced approach when playing at even strength as they rank seventh in expected goals scored (xG) on offense and tenth in expected goals allowed on defense (xGA). They are scoring in 22% of their Power Play opportunities — and they have been successful on the Power Play Kill 87% of the time. Calgary has been mediocre at five-on-five as they rank 18th in xG and 16th in xGA. While their Power Play Kill Unit has been good, they are only scoring on 12% of their Power Plays. The Flames have lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring four or more goals in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after a game where both teams scored four or more goals. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after losing three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set at 6 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Calgary won the last meeting between these teams back on November 27th in a 2-1 victory at home — but the Golden Knights have won 28 of their last 37 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 8* NHL Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Vegas Golden Knights (14) with the money-line versus the Calgary Flames (13). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-13-23 |
Panthers v. Golden Knights -145 | Top | 3-9 |
Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (52) versus the Florida Panthers (51) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (66-26-11) has won four of their last five games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Panthers on Saturday. Florida (55-40-7) has lost four of their last five games as they now trail attempt to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Many bettors will be tempted to zig-zag by backing Florida in this game because it is a simple and easy formula — but what I observed was a beaten team in the waning moments of Game Four. The Panthers got their first power play opportunity with 17 seconds left in game after Alex Pietrangelo drew a delay of game penalty by knocking the puck into the stands. With a six-on-four advantage with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky pulled Florida could not beat Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill in a furious fury as time expired. Frustrated, Brandon Montour of the Panthers skated a few feet forward to cheat shot Vegas’ Brayden McNabb with his back turned. His actions triggered a post-game melee that even Hill got involved with for a few moments before getting out of there. That event provided a synopsis of this series: Florida, the bully, now getting bullied (and out-maneuvered) by a season Golden Knights team. The Panthers' physical style had great success against Toronto and Carolina en route to their Eastern Conference Finals triumph. But this mentality along with the commitment to forechecking is standard operating procedure to play against for this Golden Knights team that has learned to engage and thrive with these tactics since their inaugural season in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings became the standard bearer for this approach a decade ago— and the San Jose Sharks adopted it. The Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer later became the coach for the Knights — and it was the DeBoer’s latest team the Dallas Stars that Vegas had to beat in the Western Conference Finals. The underlying metrics support the Golden Knights’ dominance in this series. They registered 3.7 expected goals (xG) in Game Four while holding Florida to 2.49 xG. In their 3-2 overtime loss on the road in Game Three, they won the xG battle by a 3.71-2.9 margin. The only game that the Golden Knights lost the xG numbers was in Game Two by a narrow 2.84-2.65 margin. The scoreboard has Vegas taking that game by a 7-2 score (showing the limitations of xG as not the end-all, be-all). For the series, the Golden Knights are dominating Florida by a 14.85-10.82 xG margin. And now Matthew Tkachuk is hurt with a left shoulder that seems to be a by-product of the hit he took in Game Three. Despite trailing in the third period, he stayed on the bench for 10:41 straight minutes before going on the ice late in that game. He did not practice on Monday and is questionable to play. Even if he plays, he will not be 100%. His three overtime-winning goals have been critical for the Panthers to win all seven of their overtime games in these playoffs. Florida’s success in winning close games obscures that they have actually been outscored this postseason. Is this a team that simply rode the hot goaltending of Bobrovsky? The Panthers will have resolve tonight with the confidence that they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. But that was a divisional rivalry against a Bruins team playing with tons of pressure after their historic regular season. Florida did win last year’s President’s Trophy — but this is still a team that lacks deep playoff experience before now. This Golden Knights team has been building to this moment since their expansion season when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Washington. This team has been underrated by the analytics and the oddsmakers entering the postseason given all the injuries they sustained during the regular season — most notably with Mark Stone missing most of the season. Before Jack Eichel arrived, he was the team’s best player. Now he anchors a third line away from the Eichel line that is thriving with Jonathan Marchessault. Vegas may have the best fourth line in the NHL. And the other forward line involves William Karlsson, the best offensive player on the 2016-17 squad that reached the Cup Finals — and who is the team’s best defensive forward. Back at home, head coach Bruce Cassidy has the advantage of the last-line choice — so he can ensure Karlsson is always playing against Tkachuk who only scored once in the first two games in this series in Las Vegas. Remember, it was Karlsson that was critical for the Knights’ slowing down Connor McDavid in the Western Conference Semifinals against Edmonton. Vegas outscored the Panthers by a whopping 12 to 4 margin in the first two games at home in this series. They have won 20 of their last 26 games at home. Additionally, the Golden Knights have won 20 of their last 29 games after a win by one goal — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after a win on the road by one goal. Hill continues to exceed expectations — but the unsung heroes are his supporting cast willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots. In Game Four, Vegas blocked 30 shots to Florida’s 15 blocks. And Cassidy deserves tons of credit for implementing a defensive scheme that operates as a passive 1-4 zone approach from the New Jersey Devils of last decade. It has allowed the Knights to continually have success despite rotating goaltenders all season.
FINAL TAKE: Florida has lost 9 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge a loss by one goal to their opponent — and they have lost 7 in a row in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights. The money-line price opened in the -145 price range — and I released the play soon after. News of the Tkachuk’s injury has pushed the price up to the -160s range, which is above my -150 price threshold. That threshold is a guideline rather than a rule written in stone. It helps keep me from investing in pricy favorites which can be Fool’s Gold. If you can’t get a price at -150 or lower, it’s fine — and I still recommend the play. While the early bird catches the worm, dealing with line movement is part of the business. Under the short-term microscope of a Stanley Cup Finals game, the price is fine as I expect Lord Stanley’s Cup to be raised on Tuesday. 25* NHL Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (52) versus the Florida Panthers (51). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-10-23 |
Golden Knights +109 v. Panthers | | 3-2 |
Win | 109 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (49) versus the Florida Panthers (50) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss on the road against the Panthers on Thursday. Florida (55-39-7) ended their two-game losing streak to win their first game in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas outshot the Panthers on Thursday by a 27 to 23 margin — and they won the expected goals battle by a 3.71 to 2.9 mark. But the Golden Knights failed to take a 3-0 series lead by losing this coin-flip game in overtime after Matthew Tkachuk tied the game with just over two minutes left in the third period. Head coach Bruce Cassidy has some things to clean up on defense after a shot off the boards left them exposed on that game-winning goal. Vegas has been resilient in these playoffs — and they have a big edge in deep playoff experience over the Panthers in this series. The Golden Knights have won 12 of their last 17 games after losing on the road in their previous game — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by just one goal on the road in their previous contest. Vegas has also won 15 of their last 21 games on the road. Florida avoided truly dire straits by trailing in this series by a 3-0 margin by forcing overtime with just over two minutes left in regulation time. But the Panthers are losing in the special teams battle in this series. Vegas has scored six goals on the power play in this series while converting 35.3% of the time against Florida when they have the man advantage. Both their goals on Thursday were on the power play. The formula for success for the Panthers has become clear: stop trying to out-muscle the Golden Knights, settle for lower-scoring games, and make it a battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Hill. Florida was able to bully Toronto and Carolina — but Vegas is well-versed in playing heavy hockey so these tactics are old hat to them. Bobrovsky had his best game in this series as he stopped 25 of the 27 shots he faced. Vegas entered this series seeming to struggle with their Power Play Kill Unit in the postseason — but much of that is due to having to deal with the historically elite power play of the Edmonton Oilers this season. Connor McDavid and company scored 14 power-play goals in 23 chances in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Golden Knights have been perfect in this series by thwarting the Panthers in all 12 of their power play chances. Hill played his worst game in this series by allowing three goals — but he did not play badly, per se, as he posted a -0.1 GSAx indicating he was about average. I do not see a sudden blow-up coming from Hill since he is protected by head coach Bruce Cassidy’s sophisticated defensive system which is a passive version of the old New Jersey Devils’ 1-4 scheme. Cassidy is happy to have his team counter-attack with all their scoring talent. We had the Over in Game Three as I expected Florida to come out very aggressive (and perhaps the early injury to Matthew Tkachuk compelled them to change tactics). But after attempting 35 and 31 shots in the first two games of this series, the Panthers only took those 23 shots on Thursday including the game-winner in overtime.
FINAL TAKE: Vegas has beaten the Panthers in 7 of their last 10 games against them. 10* NHL Vegas-Florida TNT Special with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (49) versus the Florida Panthers (50). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-03-23 |
Panthers v. Golden Knights -125 | | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (44) versus the Florida Panthers (43) in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (63-26-10) has won six of their last eight games after their 6-0 victory in Dallas to win the Western Conference Finals in six games on Monday. Florida (54-37-7) has won five games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 — after their 4-3 win at home against Carolina to complete their four-game sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals back on May 24th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been spectacular in the postseason with +19.6 Goals Saved Above Expectation. He has masked what has been other ways mediocre play from the Florida defense. The Panthers are allowing 3.61 expected Goals Allowed per 60 minutes in these playoffs which is the worst mark of all 16 teams to play in the postseason. With ten days off since last taking the ice, will Bobrovsky experience any rust? Because if Bobrovsky does not have his A-Game, Florida is probably in trouble. The Panthers have allowed 10 or more High Danger Chances in six straight games. They have arguably been outplayed in six straight playoff games — including all four games in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Hurricanes — but it was Bobrovskys’ stellar play that made the difference. Florida has an expected Goals-For share of 46.6% in the playoffs which ranks last amongst playoff teams. In their last six games, they only have a 41.7% expected Goals-For share. They have been outshot by 12 or more shots in three straight games after their epic four-overtime affair in the opening game of their series with Carolina — and they have then lost 32 of their last 52 games after taking at least eight fewer shots than their opponent in three straight games. Florida has also lost 8 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. The Panthers have played in six overtime games in these playoffs — and they have won them all. They have played won five straight games decided by one goal including all four games against the Hurricanes. After three losses by more than one goal in the first four games against Boston, they have won nine of their last ten games that were decided by one goal. The margins have been razor-thin. Vegas has won eight of their 12 games in the postseason by more than one goal. They have won 6 of their last 9 games decided by four or more goals. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. The Golden Knights host the first two games in this series — and they have won 6 of their last 9 home games at home with the Total set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Panthers winning the last meeting by a 2-1 score at home on March 7th. Vegas has won 10 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they scored only one goal. 10* NHL Florida-Vegas TNT Special with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (44) versus the Florida Panthers (43). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-27-23 |
Stars v. Golden Knights -131 | Top | 4-2 |
Loss | -131 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Dallas Stars (21) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-10) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with a 3-2 loss in overtime on the road against the Stars. Dallas (55-26-18) still trails by a 3-1 margin in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas has bounced back to win 12 of their last 16 games after losing on the road — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road by one goal. The Golden Knights have also won 11 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than one goal in their last contest. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and Vegas has won 15 of their last 21 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Despite the loss, the team continues to get great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped 39 of 42 shots on Thursday. Hill had +1.81 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game Four -- giving him an impressive +7.81 GSAx mark in the postseason. He has won six of his eight postseason starts with a 2.07 Goals-Against-Average and a .938 save percentage. Vegas is better than their regular season statistics suggest due to a slew of injuries — but they are close to full strength now. Having Mark Stone back on the ice to anchor one of the forward lines while joining Jack Eichel on the power play makes the Golden Knights one of the most explosive scoring attacks in the league. They have won 37 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Vegas has also won 23 of their last 32 games at home including six of their last seven in these playoffs. Home ice advantage is of particular importance tonight for head coach Bruce Cassidy given the suspension of the Stars captain Jamie Benn. Dallas only has two formidable scoring lines with Benn serving the second game of his two-game suspension and right wing Evgenii Dadonov out with an injury — they both anchored the third line. The home team gets the final shift change which will help ensure Cassidy gets his preferred blue-line pairings against the Stars' top-two lines while getting his choice as to when he wants his William Karlsson forward line on the ice to deploy his elite defensive skills. Dallas has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 16 of their last 26 games after a victory at home. The Stars have also lost 4 straight games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games after playing three straight Unders. They got their best game in this series from goalie Jake Oettinger who stopped 37 of the 39 shots he has faced. But Oettinger has been inconsistent this postseason with a 2.94 GAA and a .899 save percentage in 17 starts — and he has been pulled three times due to poor play.
FINAL TAKE: The Stars won the overtime battle on Thursday — but when Benn lost control and drove his stick into Stone’s throat to “brace his fall to the ice” early in Game Four, Dallas probably lost the war. Playing on the road down the street from the Hollywood Sports office was already going to be tough enough — but to do it without their captain (and Dadonov) is too much to overcome against a Golden Knights team that has won 28 of their last 39 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NHL Western Conference Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Dallas Stars (21). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-23-23 |
Golden Knights v. Stars -137 | Top | 4-0 |
Loss | -137 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (14) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (13) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-25-18) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-2 loss in overtime on the road on Sunday. Vegas (61-25-9) has won four games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this series with both victories coming in overtime.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas outplayed the Golden Knights on Sunday. They held them to just 24 shots — and they won the expected goals battle by a 3.24 to 2.88 margin. The Stars have a 52.39% expected goals share mark in this series. They should play well tonight in this crucial third game. Dallas has won 13 of their last 20 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. They have won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Additionally, while the Stars have given up seven goals in the two games in this series, they have then won 15 of their last 21 games after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. Goalie Jake Oettinger has been inconsistent in this series — but he has been quite good in his career when coming off a loss. Forgive me for not recalculating his up-to-date data after he stopped 21 of 24 shots on Sunday — but he had a 22-1-3 record this season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage along with a 5-0 record with a .929 save percentage in the playoffs before the loss in Game Three. Returning home will help where Dallas has won 5 of their last 6 games. They have also won 6 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. They should tighten things up on defense considering that they lead all teams in the playoffs with an expected Goals Allowed (xGA) mark of 2.25. Vegas has lost 4 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row at home by one goal. They have scored three or more goals in four straight games — but they have then lost 8 of their last 12 games after scoring three or more goals in four straight games. And while the Golden Knights have only lost three times in their last 15 games, they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after winning 12 or more of their last 15 contests. Vegas is getting it done despite shaky special teams play. They are only seventh in the postseason with a Power Play that is scoring on just 18.6% of their chances. Their Power Play Kill Unit ranks 14th of the 16 playoff teams with a success rate of 68.6%. The team is getting near miraculous goaltending from Adin Hill who is pretty much a fourth-stringer. But while he had a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in his 15 games at home in the regular season (14 starts), those numbers decline to a 2.67 GAA and a .909 save percentage in 12 games (11 starts) on the road in the regular season. I worry that the bubble is about to burst for Hill — and the Golden Knights have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas against the Stars.
FINAL TAKE: The Stars have won 5 of their last 7 games when playing with double-revenge of two losses by one goal. 25* NHL Tuesday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (14) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (13). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-20-23 |
Panthers v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 2-1 |
Loss | -150 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (8) versus the Florida Panthers (7) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Carolina (59-24-11) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 3-2 loss in four overtimes at home to the Panthers. Florida (51-37-7) has won eight of their last nine games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: How will these teams respond to playing 139:47 minutes on Thursday in what was the sixth-longest game in the history of the NHL? The TNT commentary team suggested that Florida may be galvanized by the win while Carolina may be deflated by the loss. The past results do not bear this out. I did a deep dive into how teams respond after playing in four overtime games in the Stanley Cup playoffs. We are dealing with a small sample size but the results do suggest that the Panthers are not in an automatically better situation simply because they pulled out Thursday’s game. The winners of playoff games that went into the fourth overtime then lost 7 of their next 12 games going back to 1933. Admittedly, not all of those 12 games are directly comparable. Three of those four overtime games decided the series — and it is telling that those surviving teams went on to lose their next game in the opening round of the next playoff series. Clearly, playing four overtimes is draining — but both teams are feeling in this instance. When the series continued after a four-overtime game, the triumphant team did win the next game in four of seven occasions — but one of those games was in 1936 when the Detroit Red Wings were playing the Montreal Maroons in the semifinals and coming off the longest game in NHL history that went into the sixth overtime period. In 2020, Columbus rebounded to a 3-2 loss in five overtimes in Game One to upset Tampa Bay in their building in Game Two. So I think there is enough evidence to indicate that the Hurricanes are not screwed for losing Thursday’s marathon. We want to fade Florida in this spot as they have now survived four overtime games on the road. This team is winning lots of coin flips. They lost the expected goals battle in Game One with Carolina generating 6.5 expected goals to the Panthers’ 4.41 expected goals. In their previous game at Toronto that ended that series, they lost the expected goals battle by a 4.67 to 3.2 margin but won the game in overtime by a 3-2 score. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been the difference as he is playing at the highest level in his career. He leads all goaltenders with +13.8 goals saved above expectation in the playoffs. But he is the one I am most concerned about recovering for this game after facing 65 shots on Thursday. As it is, Bobrovsky underdoes a rigorous in-game and post-game special hydration program. Head coach Paul Maurice has confirmed he is playing tonight — but it is a lot to ask of the veteran. In his 24 games on the road in the regular season, Bobrovsky had a 3.27 GAA and a .892 save percentage. Florida defensemen Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, and Aaron Ekblad all logged in over 50 minutes on Thursday. This is a team that has lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by one goal — and they have lost 12 of their last 14 games on the road after winning two games in a row by one goal. They have lost 21 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than two goals in two straight games. The Panthers are just 14-37-2 in their last 53 games at the Hurricanes’ PNC Arena. Carolina has not lost two straight games in this postseason. The Hurricanes have won 5 straight games after not scoring more than two goals. They still hold a big edge on their home ice where they have won 42 of their last 58 games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 contests at PNC Arena. Head coach Rob Brind’Amour has the luxury of resting Frederik Andersen tonight and turning to Antti Raanta who was the rotational starter during the regular season. Raanta had an 11-0-1 record at home during the regular season with a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .916 save percentage. In his 13 games (11 starts) at home in the playoffs in his career, Raanta has an 8-1 record with a 1.78 GAA and a .933 save percentage. The Hurricanes have played two straight Unders — and they have won 23 of their last 28 home games after playing two straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the “Carolina will be deflated” theory is that Florida may be lulled into letting up in their intensity since they will lack the urgency that the Hurricanes will have to avoid going back to Florida with an 0-2 series deficit. Carolina has won 15 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss by just one goal. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (8) versus the Florida Panthers (7). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-18-23 |
Panthers v. Hurricanes -135 | | 3-2 |
Loss | -135 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (2) versus the Florida Panthers (1) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (59-24-10) has won five of their last six games after defeating New Jersey by a 3-2 score last Thursday to end that series in five games. Florida (50-37-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 3-2 win at Toronto in overtime last Friday which ended that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES: Carolina has one of the best home-ice advantages in the NHL — they have won 42 of their last 57 games at home including five of their six games in this postseason. The Hurricanes should build off their momentum as they have won 39 of their last 55 games after winning their previous game. They have also won 19 of their last 26 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Frederik Andersen has been outstanding in the postseason with a 1.80 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage. In his 18 starts at home in the regular season, Andersen had a 2.27 GAA. Florida has gotten outstanding play from their goalie Sergei Bobrovsky — but the bubble may be about to burst. While he has a 2.82 GAA and a .918 save percentage in his ten postseason appearances, he has stood on his head with a +9.3 Goals-Saved Above Expectation mark in these playoffs which is not sustainable. There is a reason why Alex Lyon was the starting goaltender for this team when their opening-round series with Boston began. In his 24 games on the road in the regular season, Bobrovsky had a 3.27 GAA and a .892 save percentage. The Panthers are just 14-37-2 in their last 53 games at the Hurricanes’ PNC Arena.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina took two of the three games between these teams in the regular season after a 6-4 victory on April 13th. Florida has lost 21 of their last 34 games when avenging a loss where they gave up four or more goals. 8* NHL Florida-Carolina TNT Special with the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (2) versus the Florida Panthers (1). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-13-23 |
Stars -143 v. Seattle Kraken | | 3-6 |
Loss | -143 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (37) versus the Seattle Kraken (38) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (53-24-16) has won two games in a row in this series after their 5-2 victory at home against the Kraken on Thursday. Seattle (52-34-8) has lost three of their last four games to fall behind in this series by a 3-2 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas has taken control of this series by winning three of the last four games. This series would probably be over if the Stars had pulled out the opener in the series which the Kraken won in overtime. The Stars have outscored Seattle by a decisive 11-5 margin in the last two games of this series. Dallas has won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Kraken got an inspired goaltending effort from Philip Grubauer in the first round of the playoffs who seemed motivated to prove something to his old team — he posted a .934 save percentage in that seven-game series with Seattle upsetting Colorado and dethroning the reigning Stanley Cup champions. But Grubauer has regressed back to his underwhelming play in this series which has made him a big disappointment for this expansion club that targeted him as their big free agent signing before their inaugural season last year. Grubauer has allowed nine goals in the last two games while posting a .786 save percentage. His postseason numbers of a 3.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage look very close to his regular season numbers. At home during the regular season, Grubauer had a 3.06 GAA and a .886 save percentage. All five games in this series have gone Over the Total with at least six combined goals scored. The Kraken have lost 8 of their last 11 games after playing four or more Overs in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has lost 22 of their last 31 games against teams with a winning record — and Dallas has won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 8* NHL Dallas-Seattle ESPN Special with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (37) versus the Seattle Kraken (38). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-11-23 |
Devils v. Hurricanes -125 | Top | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (24) versus the New Jersey Devils (23) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (58-24-10) has won four of their last five games after their 6-1 victory in Game Three of this series. New Jersey (56-28-9) has lost four of their last six games while now trailing in this series by a 3-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Except for their 8-4 loss in Game Three, Carolina has dominated this series. They have outscored the Devils by +10 goals in this series. They have also outscored New Jersey by an 11 to 2 margin in the first two games in this series at their PNC Arena. The Hurricanes enjoy a significant home-ice advantage. They have won 11 of their last 13 playoff games at home including 4 of their 5 home games this postseason. They have also won 41 of their last 56 games at home including regular season contests. Carolina should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 18 of their last 23 games after beating a divisional rival in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a win against a Metropolitan Division opponent by three or more goals. They have won 16 of their last 23 games after beating their last opponent by three or more goals. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have won 14 of their last 19 games after scoring five or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring six or more goals in their last contest. And in their last 23 games after not allowing more than one goal, they have won 17 of those games. Carolina got a good bounce-back performance from goalie Frederick Andersen who stopped 21 of the 22 shots he faced. Despite getting pulled in Game Three (but not getting the technical loss in that game), he has a 4-0-0 record in the postseason with a 1.80 Goals-Against-Average and a .930 save percentage. In his 12 career starts against the Devils, Andersen has a 2.10 GAA and a .930 save percentage. New Jersey is a young team that is getting valuable playoff experience — but they are probably a year away from being a serious playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. The Devils have lost 22 of their last 33 games after a loss at home to a divisional rival. They have also lost 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by four or more goals — and they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by four or more goals against a Metropolitan Division rival. New Jersey has also lost 7 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. While the Devils have exciting scoring talent led by Jack Hughes, their blue line and the play of their goaltenders remain problems. They have allowed four or more goals in four straight games and five of their last six contests — and they have then lost 14 of their last 18 games after allowing four or more goals in their last four games. Vitek Vanecek is probably unplayable at this point after allowing five goals on 12 shots on Tuesday. He has allowed at least four goals in all four of his playoff starts this year. Head coach Lindy Ruff probably has to turn back to Akira Schmid who played well last round against the New York Islanders but has been saddled with a 5.40 GAA and a .830 save percentage in this series. Even Mackenzie Blackwood has to be considered an option despite his 3.20 GAA and .893 save percentage. He has not played since April 13th in the regular season when he was torched for four goals on 11 shots against Washington. It’s bad. The Devils have lost 8 of their last 11 games against the Hurricanes — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against them in Carolina.
FINAL TAKE: The Devils have lost 11 of their last 16 games when attempting to avenge a loss by four or more goals. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (24) versus the New Jersey Devils (23). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-10-23 |
Golden Knights v. Oilers -184 | | 1-4 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (22) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (21) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (55-26-10) lost for the second time in their last three games with their 5-1 loss at home on Monday. Vegas (57-24-9) has won six of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton should rebound with a strong effort tonight with their back’s against the wall. They have won 12 of their last 15 games after a loss by two or more goals — and they have won 5 straight gamers after a loss by two more goals to a Pacific Division rival. Additionally, Edmonton has won 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. The last two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders. Vegas is overachieving on defense in this series. After allowing their last 20 opponents in the regular season to 3.12 expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the Golden Knights are limiting the Oilers to 2.13 xGA per 60 minutes at five-on-five in this series. Adin Hill gets the start tonight given the injury to Laurent Brossoit who left in the second period in Game Three. Hill stopped all 24 shots he faced — but now Edmonton has had two days to study his tendencies and weaknesses. While Hill had a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in 15 games (14 starts) at home, those numbers declined to a 2.67 GAA and a .909 save percentage in his 12 games (11 starts) on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have won 24 of their last 33 games when motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 8* NHL Vegas-Edmonton ESPN Special with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (22) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (21). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-10-23 |
Maple Leafs -105 v. Panthers | Top | 2-1 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (19) versus the Florida Panthers (20) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (54-25-120 has lost four of their last five games after their 3-2 loss in overtime on Sunday. Florida (49-36-7) has won six games in a row to take a 3-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAPLE LEAFS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Game Three was actually the first game in this series that Toronto lost the expected goals battle by a 3.57 to 2.33 xG mark. The Maple Leafs won the xG battle in Game One by a 5.80 to 2.78 mark before winning Game Two by a 4.12-2.80 xG clip. In all situations in this series, Toronto has generated 12.12 xG with the Panthers only coming in at 9.24 xG. Expected goals do not tell the whole story — but these numbers do suggest that the Maple Leafs have been much more competitive in this series that the win tally suggests. Their big four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander have yet to score in this series — and this is the first time in the history of this franchise that no one from this group has scored in three straight games. After converting on 26% of their power plays in the regular season, Toronto has only scored once in their 11 power plays in this series. I suspect the goals are coming tonight after the disaster of losing the first three games of this series. Winning four games in a row will be a difficult task for this team — and I think that actually eases some of the pressure on this group tonight. As it is, the Maple Leafs have won 26 of their last 35 games after losing their last game. They have also won 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by just one goal — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by one goal on the road. Furthermore, Toronto has won 14 of their last 20 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They have also won 20 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 7 games on the road, the Maple Leafs have won 6 of these games. Ilya Samsonov left Game Three with an upper body injury which opens the door for Joseph Woll to get his first NHL playoff start. The 24-year-old lacks experience having played in only 12 games at the NHL level. He allowed all three goals on Sunday after Samsonov left the game. But Woll is talented — he had a 2.16 Goals-Against-Average and a .932 save percentage in his seven starts in the regular season this year. Florida is riding high with six straight wins after rallying from a 3-1 series deficit to Boston last round. But the Panthers have lost 9 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have scored at least three goals in each of their games during this winning streak — but they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least three goals in five straight games. They have lost 5 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row by just one goal. And in their last 9 fourth games in a playoff series, Florida has lost 7 times. They are getting some great saves from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky that help explain why Toronto’s expected goal advantage is not translating into victories. But Bobrovsky still has just a 3.13 Goals-Against-Average and a .909 save percentage in the postseason this year.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won 17 of their last 25 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (19) versus the Florida Panthers (20). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-09-23 |
Stars -135 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 6-3 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (17) versus the Seattle Kraken (18) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (51-24-16) has lost two of their last three games in this series after their 7-2 loss on the road to the Kraken on Sunday. Seattle (52-32-8) has won three of their last four games while evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: After a scoreless first period, Dallas got ambushed by the Kraken who scored four unanswered goals in just over a six-minute stretch in the second period. Goalie Jake Oettinger got pulled in the third period after giving up his fifth goal on just 17 shots. His .706 save percentage was the lowest in a game in his career. Oettinger still has a career .933 save percentage in the postseason — and he should bounce back with a strong effort tonight. He has a 17-1-3 record in the regular season with a 1.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage in his 21 games following a loss. After his three losses in the playoffs, he has a 3-0-0 record with a 2.34 GAA and a .920 save percentage. Dallas should play well tonight as they have won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also won 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Stars have won 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring two goals or less. They have also won 11 of their last 14 road games after allowing four or more goals — and they have won 4 straight games after allowing five goals in their last contest. And in their last 27 games after losing two of their last three games, they have won 18 of their contests. Dallas has won 12 of their last 17 games on the road. The Stars have been quite good in the postseason. They lead all teams with an expected Goals-For share of 56.43% — the best mark of the remaining eight teams in the playoffs. They are scoring on 31.4% of their power plays. They are second in the postseason by allowing 2.24 expected goals per 60 minutes which is the second-lowest mark in the postseason. They are holding their opponents to scoring on just 18% of their power play opportunities in the playoffs. Seattle has just a 43.57% expected goals share in the postseason — and they are scoring on just 14.8% of their power plays. The Kraken have lost 7 of their last 9 games at home after a win by three or more goals. They have also lost 10 of their last 14 games at home after winning two of their last three games — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 home games after winning three of their last four games. And while the last three games in this series have finished Over the Total, Seattle has lost 13 of their last 20 games after playing three straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas defenseman Miro Heiskanen is a game-time decision after leaving Game 3 after taking a puck to the face. He did participate in this morning’s practice playing with a mask — so he intends on playing. The Stars have won 6 straight road games when they are playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NHL Western Conference Semifinals Game of the Year with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (17) versus the Seattle Kraken (18). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-07-23 |
Stars -136 v. Seattle Kraken | | 2-7 |
Loss | -136 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (9) versus the Seattle Kraken (10) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (57-23-16) has won four of their last five games after their 4-2 victory at home against the Kraken to even this series on Thursday. Seattle (51-32-8) has still won four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Stars should build off their momentum as they have won 7 of their last 10 games after winning their previous game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Jake Oettinger did not see a drop off in play when he was on the road this season — he posted a 2.16 Goals-Against-Average and a .929 save percentage in 27 games (26 starts) in the regular season. Dallas has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Seattle has lost 10 of their last 13 games at home after winning two of their last three games. They return home for Games Three and Four — but they have lost 16 of their last 25 games at home with the Total set at 5.5. Philip Grubauer is likely the Kraken’s starting goaltender tonight despite struggling in the first two games in this series. He gave up four goals on 37 shots in Game Two. He returns home where he was saddled with a 3.06 GAA and a .886 save percentage in 22 games (20 starts) at home.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and Seattle has lost 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 8* NHL Sunday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (9) versus the Seattle Kraken (10). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-29-23 |
Devils v. Rangers -125 | | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (14) versus the New Jersey Devils (13) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (48-25-14) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 4-0 loss on the road against the Devils on Thursday. New Jersey (54-24-9) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has now lost five of their last seven games — but they have then won 14 of their last 17 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while no more than four combined goals have been scored in the last three games of this series, the Rangers have then won 14 of their last 22 games after playing two or more games in a row where no more than four combined goals were scored. Goalie Igor Shesterkin holds a .938 save percentage in this series to continue his stellar form in the second half of the season. In his final 15 regular season starts since the beginning of March, Shesterkin has a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average with a .934 save percentage. New Jersey has gotten great goaltending from Akira Schmid who has a .976 save percentage in three games since replacing Vitek Vanacek in this series — but he has a career 2.46 GAA and a .902 save percentage in just 24 appearances in the regular season before making his postseason debut in this series. The Devils have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a shutout victory at home in their last game. They have only allowed two goals in their last three contests — but they have lost 29 of their last 46 games after not allowing more than one goal in three straight games. New Jersey has also lost 27 of their last 41 games on the road after playing three or more games in a row where no more than four combined goals were scored.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 9 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where their opponent had three or more goals — and they have won 27 of their last 42 games when playing with double revenge. 8* NHL Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the New York Rangers (14) versus the New Jersey Devils (13). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-28-23 |
Avalanche -140 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 4-1 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (7) versus the Seattle Kraken (8) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (53-26-8) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss at home to the Kraken on Wednesday. Seattle (49-30-8) has a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The reigning Stanley Cup champions find themselves on the brink of elimination after their upset loss in Game Five. They do get their superstar defenseman Cole Makar back for this game after he was suspended for Wednesday’s game. Makar is second all-time to Bobby Orr in NHL playoff history by averaging 1.068 points per game in the postseason. He has generated 12 shots in his four games in this series — so getting him back on the ice will help. Colorado has won 13 of their last 19 games after a loss at home — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after losing by one goal on their home ice. The Avalanche have lost each of the last two games in this series by a 3-2 score. But they have then won 41 of their last 53 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. This remains a team that ranked third in the NHL expected Goals Allowed per 60 minutes in the regular season. On the road, Colorado has won 39 of their last 53 games — and they have won 27 of their last 38 road games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Seattle has lost 15 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also lost 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than two goals in two straight games. The Kraken have scored more than three goals in this series just one time. They ranked 21st in the NHL in the regular season in expected goals per 60 minutes. They have lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (7) versus the Seattle Kraken (8). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-28-23 |
Bruins -173 v. Panthers | | 5-7 |
Loss | -173 | 0 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (1) versus the Florida Panthers (2) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (68-14-5) had won 11 of 12 games before their 4-3 loss in overtime at home to the Panthers on Wednesday. Florida (44-36-7) had lost five of six games before pulling within a 3-2 margin in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston should bounce-back with a strong effort to close out this series after winning the President’s Trophy in the regular season. The Bruins have won 39 of their last 52 games after losing their previous game. They have ways won 29 of their last 35 games after losing two of their last three games. Florida has lost 13 of their last 20 games after winning on the road in their previous game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after winning their last game by one goal. And in their last 43 games after scoring four or more goals, they have lost 27 of those contests. The Panthers have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has won 20 of their last 24 opportunities for revenge against their opponent. They have beaten the Panthers in 36 of their last 52 games against them — and they have won 21 of their last 31 games against them in Florida. 8* NHL Boston-Florida TNT Special with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (1) versus the Florida Panthers (2). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-26-23 |
Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -172 | | 3-2 |
Loss | -172 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (52) versus the Seattle Kraken (51) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (53-25-8) had won two games in a row in this series before their 3-2 loss in overtime on the road against the Kraken on Monday. Seattle (48-30-8) evened this series at 2-2 with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Even without a suspended Cole Makar and Valeri Nichushkin who is away from the team, Colorado should respond with a big effort tonight after losing in overtime on Monday. The Avalanche have won 22 of their last 35 games after losing by one goal in their previous game. Colorado has won 4 of their 6 games this season after losing in overtime. They return home to host this crucial Game Five having won 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set at 5.5. Seattle has lost 18 of their last 23 games on the road with the Total set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: The Avalanche have won 43 of their last 61 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss to their opponent. 8* NHL Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (52) versus the Seattle Kraken (51). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-25-23 |
Wild v. Stars -133 | | 0-4 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (44) versus the Minnesota Wild (43) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (48-23-15) has won eight of their last ten games after their 3-2 victory on Sunday in Game Four of this series to even things at 2-2. Minnesota (48-28-10) has lost four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas should build off their momentum as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last game. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games. The Stars have also won 10 of their last 13 games against Central Division rivals. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 15 of their 21 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: The Wild have lost 9 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge a loss at home to their opponent. 8* NHL Minnesota-Dallas TBS-TV Special with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (44) versus the Minnesota Wild (43). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-25-23 |
Islanders v. Hurricanes -148 | Top | 3-2 |
Loss | -148 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (42) versus the New York Islanders (41) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (54-22-10) has won five of their last six games after their 5-2 victory on the road against the Islanders on Sunday. New York (43-34-9) looks to stave off elimination down 3-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Carolina led the NHL in Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes in the regular season while ranking fourth in the league in xG per 60 minutes on offense — and they led the NHL in both metrics in the second half of the season. They should build off their momentum tonight as they have won 36 of their last 51 games after winning their previous game. The Hurricanes have won 16 of their last 19 games after beating a Metropolitan Division rival — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games after winning on the road against a division rival. Furthermore, they have won 35 of their last 51 games after scoring five or more goals in their last game — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games after a win by three or more goals. They return home where they have won 39 of their last 53 games at home — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Carolina has also won 9 straight home games in the first round of the playoffs. Goalie Antti Raanta thrived at home in the regular season where he posted a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average with a .916 save percentage in 12 starts. New York has lost 14 of their last 18 games on the road after losing to a division rival by two more goals— and they have lost 4 straight games after a loss at home by three or more goals. The Islanders are a mediocre team that ranked 15th in xG per 60 minutes and 18th in xGA per 60 minutes in the regular season. Their chances are dependent on goalie Ilya Sorokin standing on his head — but he has a middling 2.96 GAA and a .910 save percentage in this series. Sorokin is very tough to beat at home where he had a 1.91 GAA and a .935 save percentage in the regular season — but those numbers declined to a 2.88 GAA and a .911 save percentage in 29 games (27 starts) on the road. New York has lost 5 games in a row on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road with the Total set at 5.5. The Islanders have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New York has lost 12 of their last 15 games against the Hurricanes — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games against them in Carolina. The Islanders have also lost 28 of their last 40 games on the road when avenging a same-season. I am pleasantly surprised that Carolina is priced right around my -150 price threshold tonight — let’s attack. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (42) versus the New York Islanders (41). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-23-23 |
Oilers -155 v. Kings | | 5-4 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (31) versus the Los Angeles Kings (32) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (51-24-10) has lost two of the first three games in this series after their 3-2 loss in overtime on Friday. Los Angeles (48-26-11) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by just one goal — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after losing to a Pacific Division rival. The Oilers did get a performance from rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner who stopped 28 of the 31 shots he faced. They stay on the road where they have won 7 of their last 8 games. Edmonton has also won 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is not at full strength with their offensive attack with Kevin Fiala out since April 1st with a lower-body injury. He scored 23 goals and added 49 assists in the regular season. While he is skating in practice, he does not appear ready to return to action just yet. The Kings have lost 7 of their last 9 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have won 10 of their last 13 games when avenging an upset loss on the road to their opponent as the favorite. 8* NHL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (31) versus the Los Angeles Kings (32). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-20-23 |
Lightning v. Maple Leafs -167 | | 2-7 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:08 PM ET on Thusday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (2) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (1) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (50-22-11) had won four games in a row before their 7-3 loss at home to the Lightning in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Tampa Bay (46-30-7) has won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAPLE LEAFS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto should rebound with a strong effort after their embarrassing showing on Tuesday. They have won 13 of their last 16 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 5 straight games after a loss at home by three or more goals. They have also won 23 of their last 31 games after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs ranked seventh in the NHL in executed Goals-For per 60 minutes when playing at even strength during the regular season. They have still won 58 of their last 83 games at home. Toronto felt they have upgraded their goaltending situation this season with Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. In 25 games (23 starts) at home in the regular season, he had a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average and a .927 save percentage. He was not very good in Game One by allowing six goals on 29 shots but he was not helped out much by his teammates since four of those goals were scored with the Lightning playing at a man advantage. |
04-19-23 |
Wild v. Stars -146 | Top | 3-7 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show |
At 9:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (68) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Wild (67) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (46-22-15) closed the regular season on a six-game winning streak but dropped the opening game of this best-of-seven series by a 3-2 score in double-overtime. Minnesota (47-26-10) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas won the expected goals battle last night by posting a 54.55 expected goals share at even strength on Monday — but they did not score at 5-on-5 with both their goals coming on the power play. The Stars have won 22 of their last 35 games after a loss — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home. Dallas has also won 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. The Stars are generating pressure as they have attempted at least 34 shots in three straight games — and they have then won 7 of their last 9 games after attempting 33 or more shots in three straight games. Dallas still has an edge at goaltender in this game. Jake Oettinger posted a 1.28 Goals-Against-Averageg with a .947 save percentage in five starts in April before stopping 45 of the 48 shots he faced from the Wild in Game One. The Stars have won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games against Central Division opponents. Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 21 games after a win on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after a win against a divisional rival on the road. The Wild got a spectacular effort from goalie Filip Gustavsson who stopped 51 of the 53 shots he faced. He was saddled with a 2.91 GAA and a .914 save percentage in his last four starts in the regular season this month. Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 9 playoff games when leading in the series — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 Game Twos in a playoff series. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Wild are banged up with both Oskar Sundqvist and John Klingberg questionable to play tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has lost two straight games to Minnesota after Monday night’s loss — but they have won 9 of their last 14 games when playing with double revenge. The Stars have still beaten the Wild in 31 of their last 43 opportunities to host them in Dallas. 25* NHL Central Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (68) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Wild (67). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-19-23 |
Islanders v. Hurricanes -158 | | 3-4 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (66) versus the New York Islanders (65) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (52-21-10) extended their winning streak to three games by winning the opening game of this series by a 2-1 score on Monday. New York has lost two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Carolina should build off their momentum as they have won 15 of their last 17 games after winning their previous game against a Metropolitan Division rival. They have also won 25 of their last 30 games at home when beaten in three or more games in a row. Additionally, the Hurricanes have won 35 of their last 45 games after a victory by just one goal. And while they only scored twice on Monday, they have then won 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Carolina has won 8 games in a row at home in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Goalie Antti Raanta has thrived at home where he had a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .916 save percentage in 12 starts at home in the regular season. The Hurricanes have won 24 of their last 35 games against teams with a winning record. |
04-18-23 |
Lightning v. Maple Leafs -150 | | 7-3 |
Loss | -150 | 0 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:38 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (54) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (53) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (50-21-11) has won five of their last six games to conclude their regular season after a 3-2 win in New York against the Rangers last Thursday. Tampa Bay (45-30-7) snapped a four-game losing streak with a 5-0 win against Detroit last Thursday to conclude their regular season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAPLE LEAFS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto enters the postseason with their offensive attack clicking. The Maple Leafs rank seventh in the NHL in executed Goals-For per 60 minutes when playing at even strength. They have won 35 of their last 51 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They have also won 58 of their last 82 games at home. Toronto feels they have upgraded their goaltending situation this season with Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. In 25 games (23 starts) at home, he has a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average and a .927 save percentage. Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 games after beating an Atlantic Division rival by two more goals in their last game. Defense has been the biggest problem this season as the Lightning rank 19th in the league in expected Goals Allowed per 60 minutes at even strength. Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 2.57 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 32 starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 2.75 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 28 starts on the road. Tampa Bay has lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Lightning have lost 11 of their last 15 games against winning teams — and the Maple Leafs have won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. 8* NHL Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (54) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (53). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-23-23 |
Sharks v. Canucks -166 | | 2-7 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vancouver Canucks (54) versus the San Jose Sharks (53). THE SITUATION: Vancouver (30-34-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 4-3 loss at home to Vegas on Tuesday. San Jose (19-39-13) has lost seven straight games after a 5-4 loss at Edmonton on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CANUCKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Sharks are playing out the string and tanking for the NHL draft having lost 12 of their last 13 games. They have lost 19 of their last 26 games after allowing five or more goals in their last game. And while scoring was up on Monday after not scoring more than two goals in five of their last six games before that, they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring four or more goals in their last game. San Jose has lost 10 straight games to teams with losing records in the second half of the season. Vancouver has still won seven of their last nine games down the stretch despite being out of the playoff race. They are getting better play from their defense and better goaltending from Thatcher Demko — they have held their last five opponents to 2.4 Goals-Per-Game and 27.8 shots per game which is a -3.0 drop from their season average for shots allowed. The Canucks have won 4 straight games after a loss at home by one goal. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games after a loss to a Pacific Division rival. Vancouver has won 36 of their last 53 games against opponents not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Canucks have beaten the Sharks in 10 of their last 11 meetings after a 6-2 win at home on December 27th. Vancouver has now won eight in a row against San Jose while scoring at least four goals in each of those games — and the Sharks have lost 18 of their last 23 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed at least three goals in two or more of those losses in a row. 8* NHL Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Vancouver Canucks (54) versus the San Jose Sharks (53). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-22-23 |
Penguins v. Avalanche -145 | | 5-2 |
Loss | -145 | 0 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (28) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (27). THE SITUATION: Colorado (41-22-6) has won six games in a row after their 5-0 win against Chicago on Monday. Pittsburgh (34-27-9) has lost four games in a row after their 2-1 loss to Ottawa on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado is stepping up their game with three straight victories where they scored five goals. The Avalanche have then won 6 of their last 8 games after scoring five or more goals in three straight games. They beat Detroit by a 5-1 score over the weekend — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row by four or more goals. Pittsburgh is ravaged with injuries with center Nick Bonino out the season and a number of their defensemen out including Dmitri Kulikov and Jeff Petry who is questionable for tonight. Goaltender Tristan Jarry is struggling this month — and he has a 3.11 Goals-Against-Average and a .904 save percentage in 17 starts on the road. The Penguins have lost 13 of their last 20 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have lost 19 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss in Pittsburgh on February 7th — and they have won a decisive 39 of their last 55 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 8* NHL Pittsburgh-Colorado TNT Special with the playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (28) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (27). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-15-23 |
Wild -127 v. Blues | | 8-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:37 PM ET on Wednesday, wxe will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (81) versus the St. Louis Blues (82). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (38-21-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 5-4 loss at Arizona on Sunday. St. Louis (29-32-5) snapped a two-game winning streak with a 5-3 loss to Vegas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: It has been a lost season for the Blues who have lost three of their last five games as well as nine of their last 12 contests. They have lost 25 of their last 35 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 22 of their last 29 games after a loss by two or more goals in their last contest. They stay at home where they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on their home ice. They have also lost 5 in a row when playing a team with a winning record. Minnesota has still won six of their last eight games — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games against Western Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Wild will be motivated to avenge a 3-0 loss at home to the Blues on January 8th — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 8* NHL Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (81) versus the St. Louis Blues (82). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-23-23 |
Flames v. Golden Knights -124 | Top | 3-4 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (16) versus the Calgary Flames (15). THE SITUATION: Vegas (34-18-3) was on a five-game winning streak before their 3-2 upset loss at Chicago in a shootout on Tuesday. Calgary (27-22-9) has won two of their last three games after their 6-3 victory at Arizona last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have won 8 of their last 11 games after losing their previous game by just one goal. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by one goal. They return home where they have won 4 games in a row at the Fortress at T-Mobile Arena. Laurent Brossoit gets the start between the pipes tonight after stopping 37 of the 39 shots he faces against the Blackhawks on Tuesday before losing the game in the shootout. The veteran makes his 88th career start tonight with the door wide open for him to take the number one goaltender job in Las Vegas given the injuries at the position. He has been out all season until this week with an injury of his own. The Golden Knights have won 4 of their last 5 games against Western Conference rivals. The Flames have lost 4 in a row after winning their previous game — and they have lost 8 of their last 13 games after a victory by two more goals. Additionally, Calgary has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring five or more goals in their previous game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring six or more goals in their last contest. And while this will be the Flames’ third game since Monday, they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring six or more goals in their last contest. Jacob Markstrom is expected to get the start for Calgary tonight. He has a disappointing 2.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .890 save percentage in 18 starts on the road. And in his first six starts this month, Markstrom has a 3.37 GAA and a .862 save percentage. The Flames have lost 5 of their last 7 games against the Golden Knights — and they have lost 7 in a row against them in Las Vegas.
FINAL TAKE: Vegas will be looking to avenge a 3-2 loss at Calgary on October 18th — and they have won 29 of their last 39 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (16) versus the Calgary Flames (15). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
02-18-23 |
Lightning -120 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-5 |
Loss | -120 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (25) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (26). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (35-16-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 1-0 loss in overtime at Arizona on Wednesday. Vegas (33-18-4) has won four games in a row after their 2-1 victory against San Jose on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has raised their level of play lately — they beat the reigning Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche twice in their three-game winning streak along with a nice win on the road against Dallas. They got stung by a hot goaltender in Brian Elliott on Wednesday despite outshooting the Coyotes by a 47-26 margin. The Lightning have won 9 straight games after getting shutout in a loss on the road in their last game. They have also won 5 straight games after playing a game where neither team scored more than one goal — and they have won 50 of their last 72 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last contest. Additionally, Tampa Bay has won 12 of their last 18 games after losing their previous game — and they have won 15 of their last 19 games after losing in overtime in their previous contest. They have also won 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road by just one goal. Andrei Vasilevsky should be their goaltender tonight as he looks to continue his nice 2.70 Goals-Against-Average and .929 save percentage since the All-Star Break. Vegas has lost 9 of their last 11 home games after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They stay at home where they are only scoring 2.9 Goals-Per-Game and have just a 16-13 record this season. This team desperately missed Mark Stone who is out indefinitely with his second back surgery in twelve months. Adin Hill is the Golden Knights’ number one goaltender with Logan Thompson injured -- and while he has played well as of late, he has struggled in his career against the Lightning. In his 107:18 minutes against Tampa Bay in his career, he has been saddled with a 3.95 Goals-Against-Average and a .865 save percentage. The Lightning are outscoring their opponents by +0.6 Goals-Per-Game — and Vegas has lost 9 of their last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.3 or more Goals-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Knights have lost 4 of their 6 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay has won 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 40 of their last 53 games against teams from the Pacific Division. 25* NHL Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (25) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (26). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-23-23 |
Panthers v. Rangers -140 | | 2-6 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Florida Panthers (45). THE SITUATION: New York has lost two of their last three games after their 3-1 loss to Boston on Thursday. Florida (23-21-4) has won two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 5-3 victory against Minnesota on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York started the season slow — but they have the third-best record in the NHL since the beginning of December. They have won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game — and they have won 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They stay at home at Madison Square Garden where they have won 7 of their last 10 games on home ice. They have also beaten 38 of their last 55 games against teams with a losing record. Igor Shesterkin’s improved play has been a big part of their success of late. Since December 1st, Shesterkin has a 2.32 Goals-Against-Average and a .921 save percentage in his last 17 starts. Florida has lost 20 of their last 28 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home where they scored four or more goals. Additionally, the Panthers have lost 5 straight games after going unbeaten in their previous two games — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after winning three of their last four games. Now they go back on the road where they are allowing 3.6 Goals-Per-Game. Alex Lyon is their goaltender tonight playing for just the third time this season. In his career 14 games on the road, he has a 3.20 Goals-Against-Average and an .880 save percentage. Florida has lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 1st when the Rangers upset the Panthers in Florida — and the Panthers have lost 6 straight games when attempting to avenge an upset loss at home to their opponent. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games in New York against the Rangers at Madison Square Garden. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Florida Panthers (45). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-11-22 |
Capitals v. Jets -128 | | 5-2 |
Loss | -128 | 0 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (54) versus the Washington Capitals (53). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (18-7-1) has won four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 3-1 win at Chicago on Friday. Washington (13-12-4) has won three games in a row after their 4-1 win against Seattle on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg has been one of the surprises of the season — but they have combined good defense with great goaltending to consistently put themselves in a position to win games. They are holding their opponents to 2.5 Goals-Per-Game — and they are scoring 3.8 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after winning their previous game — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 1.8 Goals-Per-Game — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games on home ice. Conner Hellebuyck is one of the best goaltenders in the world — and he is enjoying one of his best starts to a season in his career. He sports a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average with a .932 save percentage — and his save percentage improves at home to a .956 mark. The Jets have won 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. Washington has lost 12 of their last 17 games after winning their previous game. And while they have scored eight goals in their last two games, they have then lost 13 of their last 19 games after scoring four or more goals in two straight games. They go back on the road where they are allowing 3.2 Goals-Per-Game. Charles Lindgren has taken over as the team’s number-one goaltender with Darcy Kuemper faltering. But Lindgren only has a 2.87 GAA and a .907 save percentage this season. The Capitals have lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 trips to Winnipeg to play the Jets. 10* NHL Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (54) versus the Washington Capitals (53). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
10-26-22 |
Oilers v. Blues +112 | Top | 3-1 |
Loss | -100 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (46) versus the Edmonton Oilers (45). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (3-1-0) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Monday with a 4-0 loss at Winnipeg. Edmonton (3-3-0) has won two of their last three games after a 6-3 victory against Pittsburgh.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: After playing only two games in the first 11 days of the regular season, St. Louis will be playing for the third time in the last six days tonight. They should respond to being shutout in their first loss of the season as they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by three or more goals. This is a team that scored 3.77 Goals-Per-Game last season with eight of the nine players who scored at least 20 goals last year back on the roster. The Blues reached the second round of the NHL playoffs last spring with goalie Jordan Binnington rebounded from a subpar regular season — and so far he has maintained the form he regained in the postseason last year. Binnington has a 1.65 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in his three starts. He got the night off in the loss to the Jets. St. Louis has won 30 of their last 43 games against fellow Western Conference opponents. Edmonton has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring five or more goals in their last game. The Oilers made a splash in the offseason by signing goalie Jack Campbell from Toronto with the idea being that shoring up their defense was the final piece to help this team reach the Stanley Cup finals. But the inconsistent Campbell has struggled with a 3.62 GAA and a .895 save percentage in his five starts. Frankly, Edmonton needs help on their blue line as well — they are allowing 33.2 shots per game and 3.3 Goals-Per-Game. Binnington is getting the night off — so it will be back up Stuart Skinner between the pipes tonight. He has been effective with a 1.69 GAA and a .944 save percentage in two appearances including one start — but that is not a sample size I trust. In his 13 games/12 starts last year, he had a 2.62 GAA and a .913 save percentage. In his eight games/seven starts on the road, those numbers declined to a 2.63 GAA and a .903 save percentage last season. Edmonton has lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the Western Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have lost 14 of their last 19 games in St. Louis against the Blues. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (46) versus the Edmonton Oilers (45). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-26-22 |
Avalanche v. Lightning +105 | Top | 2-1 |
Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) versus the Colorado Avalanche (31) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (64-29-10) staved off elimination on the road in the Avalanche’s Ball Arena with their 3-2 victory in Game Five on Friday. Colorado (71-22-7) has lost two of the last three games in this series but still holds a 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I expected this to be a seven-game series before the puck dropped for Game One — and now that Tampa Bay return home to Amalie Arena after foiling the Avalanche’s attempt to lift the Stanley Cup on Friday, I sill expect the title to be decided in the seventh game. This has been a close series with both teams owning a blowout win and Colorado winning both games that went into overtime. Now the experience of this corps group of Lightning players really begins to kick in. Tampa Bay has played 70 playoff games over the last three seasons while winning the last two Stanley Cups. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 18 of their last 25 games after winning their last game by just one goal — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games after winning their last game on the road by one goal. Additionally, the Lightning have won 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Tampa Bay has held the Avalanche to just seven goals in the last three games of this series — and lowering scoring games is their recipe for success. The Lightning have won 50 of their last 69 games after playing two straight Unders. Back at home, Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 57 games — and they have won 9 straight home games in these playoffs. Playing at home gives head coach Jon Cooper the advantage of the last line change which is critical in this series. Cooper has two elite defensive forward groups — and at home, he can play the Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Alex Killorn group against Colorado’s top forward line featuring Nathan MacKinnon. That group enjoyed a 77% expected goal share last round against the New York Rangers. This team also has a big edge between the pipes in goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who stopped 35 of the 37 shots he faced in Game Five. He posted +0.42 Goals Saved Above Expectation — and he has a +14.12 GSAx in this postseason. After the disastrous Game Two when the Lightning defense let him down, Vasilevskiy has stopped 106 of the 113 shots he has faced for a .934 save percentage. In his ten playoff games at home this year, last year’s Conn Smythe Award winner for winning Most Valuable Player in the postseason has a 1.82 Goals-Against-Average and a .944 save percentage. Avalanche goalie Darcy Kuemper is a weak link for his team — and he demonstrated that on Friday by letting the slap shot from Jan Rutta slip between his arm and his pads to let the first goal in. The expected goals metrics projected that shot only had a 1.2% chance of scoring. Kuemper posted a -0.9 GSAx mark in Game Five — meaning he played below the expectation of the average goaltender. Kuemper now has a -4.8 GSAx in these playoffs — Colorado is trying to win their first Cup in the MacKinnon and Cole Makar era with below-average goaltending. In his six starts on the road in the playoffs, Kuemper has a 2.98 GAA and a .894 save percentage. This is the first Stanley Cup finals for the MacKinnon/Makar core after not even reaching the Western Conference Finals before this season. They are still learning how to win playoff games against elite competition — and now they face the pressure of blowing a 3-1 lead. Furthermore, they may not be at full strength for Game Six with Valerie Nichushkin questionable after leaving Game Five with an injury — and Andre Burakosky has not played since Game Two of this series after missing Friday’s contest.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 9 of their last 13 games in the Stanley Cup Finals. They have won 34 of their last 51 playoff games when trailing in the series — including nine of their last twelve games during their recent three-year run. They have also won all 4 of their potential elimination games in the postseason in the last three seasons. And in their last 6 Game Sixes in a playoff series, the Lightning have won 5 of these games. 25* NHL Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) versus the Colorado Avalanche (31). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-20-22 |
Avalanche v. Lightning -104 | Top | 2-6 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Colorado Avalanche (35) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-29-9) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series after a 7-0 loss on the road against the Avalanche on Saturday. Colorado (70-21-7) has won seven games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay does not get humiliated like they did on Saturday too often. They have won 8 straight games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 15 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Lightning have won 25 of their last 30 games at home after losing two games in a row — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row on the road. They return home where they have won 7 straight games in the playoffs — and they have won 40 of their last 55 home games when favored. They have also won 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Tampa Bay has also won 33 of their last 49 playoff games when trailing in the series. The fault from Game Two lies with the play of the Lightning’s defense rather than goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Returning home where head coach Jon Cooper gets to make the final line change will help. Tampa Bay has allowed only five goals in their last five games at home in these playoffs with a .971 save percentage. Darcy Kuemper remains a weak link for the Avalanche despite his shutout on Saturday. The Lightning only put 16 shots on him in Game Two. That will change. Kuemper has a .901 save percentage in 12 playoff games this year. Colorado has also lost 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 23 of their last 26 games at home when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. They have also won 18 of their last 20 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least four goals. 25* NHL Monday Television Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Colorado Avalanche (35). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-09-22 |
Lightning v. Rangers +112 | Top | 3-1 |
Loss | -100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (50) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (49) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (62-30-8) had been on a four-game winning streak but has now lost two in a row after their 4-1 loss on the road against the Lightning on Tuesday. Tampa Bay (61-28-8) has won eight of their last ten games after leveling this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York returns home to Madison Square Garden where head coach Gerard Gallant gets the advantage of the final line change. This will allow Gallant to get Mika Zibanejad away from the Lightning forward line of Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn, and Brandon Hagel who stymied Zibanejad in the two games in Tampa Bay. Zibanejad scored a goal in both Games One and Two of this series — and his line scored four of the eight goals the Rangers generated at even strength five-on-five. New York has won 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game by three or more goals — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. Furthermore, while the Rangers did not score more than two goals in the two games in Tampa Bay, they have then won 13 of their last 19 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. And while they allowed seven goals in those games on the road, New York has then won 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least three goals in two straight games. The Rangers return home where they have won 9 straight playoff games this postseason — and they have won 44 of their last 64 games on home ice. During their eight-game winning streak at home, they have scored 4.38 Goals-Per-Game and held their guests to just 2.00 Goals-Per-Game. They have also won three home games in a row in the playoffs after suffering a loss on the road. Igor Shesterkin is outstanding on home ice where he had a 2.04 Goals-Against-Average and a .948 save percentage in the playoffs after putting up a 1.85 GAA and a .940 save percentage at home in the regular season. Tampa Bay has lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning eight of their last ten games. They will be without forward Brayden Point once again tonight after he was declared out with his lower-body injury despite participating in skating drills the last few days. Andrei Vasilevksiy has not been nearly as effective away from home both in the playoffs and in the regular season. In 30 regular-season games, he had a 2.77 GAA and a .912 save percentage — and he has a 3.03 GAA and a .906 save percentage in eight road starts in the postseason. The Lightning have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored. They have also lost 4 in a row against the Rangers in Madison Square Garden.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers may be undermanned with centers Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil both game-time decisions. Even if neither play, I like New York to take a 3-2 series lead. The Rangers have won 10 of their last 13 games at home when avenging a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by one goal on the road. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (50) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (49). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-03-22 |
Lightning -117 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 |
Loss | -117 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (35) versus the New York Rangers (36) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (59-27-8) looks to bounce back from their 6-2 loss on the road against the Rangers on Wednesday. New York (61-28-8) has won five of their last six games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay had been on a six-game winning streak before losing to the Rangers to begin this series. The eight-day layoff they earned after sweeping Florida probably left them rusty. But now after a spirited practice yesterday, the Lightning should be laser-focused tonight — and this team has been extremely reliable in bounce back situations. Tampa Bay has won 17 straight games after a loss in the playoffs -- and it all starts with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Last year’s Conn Smythe winner was the starting goaltender for all 17 of those playoff victories — he has allowed on 28 goals in those contests for a sensational 1.47 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage. He has five shutouts in those 17 games as well. Additionally, the Lightning have won 40 of their last 52 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by four or more goals. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 38 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. In the second games of a new playoff series, head coach Jon Cooper’s team has won 14 of these last 17 showdowns. They have also won 6 straight games when trailing in the series. New York has scored 17 goals in their last three games after head coach Gerard Gallant called them out for their lackluster effort in Game Five of their series with Carolina last round. They have won each of their last three games by at least three goals — but they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row by two or more goals. They have also lost 24 of their last 38 games at home after scoring at least four goals in their last contest. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, they have lost 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 12 of their last 13 games on the road when avenging a loss on the road by two or more goals. 25* NHL Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (35) versus the New York Rangers (36). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-30-22 |
Rangers v. Hurricanes -145 | Top | 6-2 |
Loss | -145 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (22) with the money-line versus the New York Rangers (21) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-26-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers on Saturday. New York (59-28-8) has won three of their last four games to force this Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Carolina should play better tonight as they have won 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also won 6 straight games after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Hurricanes actually won the expected goals battle in Game Six by a 3.81 to 2.38 margin but were stymied by goalie Igor Shesterkin who made 37 saves. But now Carolina returns home where they are 7-0 this postseason. The Hurricanes have outscored their guests in the playoffs by a 25 to 8 margin — and they have outscored the Rangers at home at PNC Arena by a 7-2 margin. It is not just the energy the team gets from playing in front of their home crowd in Raleigh — head coach Rod Brind’amour has a big advantage in getting to choose the final lines to battle against the Rangers. Jordan Staal is a great defensive forward — and his line has contained the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad line to zero points in the three previous games in Carolina. The Hurricanes have won 44 of their last 58 games at home when favored — and they have won 14 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Additionally, Carolina has won 28 of their last 36 playing games when favored — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. They should get better goaltending from Antti Raanta tonight after he was pulled early in the second period on Saturday. Raanta has won all six of his starts at home in the postseason while posting a 0.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage. The Rangers have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They are not getting the same level of scoring production away from Madison Square Garden. The Artemi Panarin line has not registered a point in the three games in Carolina. New York has lost 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have lost 38 of their last 52 games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Rangers have also lost 6 of their last 7 games played against the Hurricanes in Raleigh.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has won 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least five goals. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Game of the Month is on the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (22) with the money-line versus the New York Rangers (21). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-26-22 |
Oilers v. Flames -145 | Top | 5-4 |
Loss | -145 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Calgary Flames (68) versus the Edmonton Oilers (67) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (55-28-10) looks to snap a three-game losing streak in this series after dropping Game Four by a 5-3 score on Tuesday. Edmonton (56-31-6) has won five of their last six games while taking a 3-1 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Calgary needs to stave off elimination with a victory tonight. They have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after losing three in a row to a Pacific Division rival. The Oilers have won all six games in the postseason when they scored first — but the Flames can take some confidence in the fact they enjoyed 3-0 and 2-0 leads on home ice in the first two games of this series. Calgary is winning the five-on-five possession battle against Edmonton. They have outshot the Oilers — and they are playing on special teams. And they are winning 56.1% of the faceoffs in the series. They are losing because of the disappointing play of goaltender Jacob Markstrom. He has an .850 save percentage in this series — and he has a 5.28 Goals-Against-Average in the last three games. But this was a Vezina Trophy finalist because his strong play in the regular season. The Flames have won 25 of their last 35 games on home ice — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Edmonton may be due for an emotional letdown after holding serve at home for Games Three and Four. The Oilers have lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning two straight games by more than one goal in their last game. They have also lost 12 of their last 14 road games after winning two in a row by multiple goals. Furthermore, Edmonton has lost 14 of their last 22 games after winning three in a row against divisional rivals. Even if Markstrom continues to struggle, the Oilers’ Mike Smith does not really offer them an advantage between the pipes. Smith played out of his mind in the opening round against Los Angeles — but he has a -1.0 goals save above expectation in this series with several terrible gaffes. Edmonton has lost 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Edmonton took Game Two of this series — but they have still lost 4 of their last 5 games played against the Flames in Calgary. The Flames have won 35 of their last 51 games when favored. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Calgary Flames (68) versus the Edmonton Oilers (67). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-22-22 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers -105 | Top | 1-3 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (45) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-27-8) has lost the first two games in this series after a 2-0 loss on the road against the Hurricanes on Friday. Carolina (60-23-8) has won three games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has only scored once so far in this series — and they are scoreless in their last 116:05 minutes. But the Rangers have won 10 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They return home where they are 3-1 at Madison Square Garden in this postseason. They have scored four goals in their 12 Power Play opportunities in those four home games. New York has won 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 5.5. They have also won 6 of their last 8 home games when the underdog. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding when playing in front of the home fans this season. In 30 games (29 starts) at MSG in the regular season, Shesterkin had a 1.85 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage and five shutouts. After some shaky moments last round against Pittsburgh that may have been triggered by his Herculean performance in the opening game overtime marathon, Shesterkin has regained his regular-season form with 44 saves against 47 shots for a .936 save percentage in this series. He has +1.07 goals saved above expectation. Carolina has lost 5 of their last 8 games after playing a low-scoring game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Hurricanes have now won 12 of their last 15 games — but they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 games. They have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road after not allowing more than one goal in two straight games. Carolina continues to get surprisingly good goaltending from Antti Raanta who has stopped 48 of the 49 shots he has seen in this series. But Raanta was at his best when playing at home in the regular season where he sported a 2.06 GAA and a .924 save percentage in 13 starts. In his 15 starts on the road, Raanta had a 2.87 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Furthermore, in his two starts on the road in Boston last round, he gave up four goals in both losses and had an .867 save percentage. The Hurricanes were winless in their three games on the road against the Bruins last round — and they were outscored by a 14 to 8 margin. The Carolina offense has not been much better than the Rangers in the postseason either. While New York ranks seventh of the remaining eight teams in expected goals scored at even strength, the Hurricanes rank sixth despite playing six of their nine playoff games on home ice.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 10 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (45). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-12-22 |
Hurricanes v. Bruins -114 | Top | 2-5 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (56) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (55) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-30) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-1 loss on the road to the Hurricanes on Tuesday. Carolina (57-22-8) took a 3-2 series lead with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston looks to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game in this series. Attrition on their blue line has not helped their cause. They got back Charlie McAvoy on Tuesday who was out due to a positive COVID test — and now they expect to see his partner of their top defensive pair return with Hampus Lindolm probable after missing the last three games after taking a big hit in Game Two. Getting their top two defenders back and playing together is huge. And getting back home to TD Garden where head coach Bruce Cassidy gets to make the final line change also helps enormously. The fans won’t hurt either. Boston has won 36 of their last 51 home games when favored. Cassidy will put David Pastrnak back on the second line with Taylor Hall -- but he may still give extra shifts to him re-pairing with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand for the “perfection” line. The Bruins have won 23 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Boston has also won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by four or more goals. Furthermore, the Bruins have won 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five goals. Rookie Jeremy Swayman is between the pipes tonight after taking over after Game Two. While he struggled on Tuesday, he posted a solid .925 save percentage in Games Three and Four at home which Boston won both. Carolina has outscored the Bruins by a 19-13 margin — but the Hurricanes are overachieving their expected goals numbers and actually have a negative 46.78% expected goals-for mark in this series when playing at five-on-five. Carolina had the number one Power Play Kill Unit in the regular season but surrendered four Power Play goals in the two previous games in Boston in this series. Antti Raanta has been playing over his head in this series with a .942 save percentage. In 15 games (13 starts) on the road this year, he has a mediocre 2.87 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage. The Hurricanes have lost 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 16 of their last 21 playoff games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Carolina has lost 11 of their last 14 games played in Boston against the Bruins. Expect this to be a seven-game series. 25* NHL Thursday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (56) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (55). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-11-22 |
Penguins v. Rangers -129 | Top | 3-5 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (48) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (47) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-26-7) returns home after losing both games on the road to the Penguins after a 7-2 loss on Monday. Pittsburgh (49-27-10) has taken a 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York lost Game Three of this series by a 7-4 score. Goalie Igor Shesterkin was pilled after the first period in Game Three after giving up four goals on 15 shots — and he only survived two periods on Monday after giving up six goals on 24 shots. But it has been the Rangers’ defense in front of him that has been the bigger problem. Shesterkin has +1.2 saves above expectation in this series. In the first two games of this series, he stopped 118 of the 124 shots he faced for a .952 save percentage. During the regular season, the likely Vezina Trophy winner posted a 1.85 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage in 30 games (29 starts at home). New York is a well-coached team under Gerard Gallant that should play better tonight back in from of their home crowd when facing elimination. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Furthermore, New York has won 15 of their last 22 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Rangers have won 24 of their last 35 games after playing their last game Over the Total — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after playing two straight Overs. Back at home, New York has won 28 of their last 41 games on home ice — and they have won 21 of their last 30 home games when favored. And in the last 12 games coached by Gerard after his team allowed at least five goals in two straight games, his teams have then won the game 9 times. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 10 games after a victory — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a win by five or more goals. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Additionally, the Penguins have lost 20 of their last 29 road games after a win by four or more goals against a Metropolitan Division rival — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road after playing a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. The Pens have lost 12 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. On the road, Pittsburgh has lost 6 of their last 8 games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Penguins are dealing with injuries on their blue line with both Brian Dumoulin and Richard Rakell out tonight. And Pittsburgh remains reliant on third-string goaltender Louis Domingue with both Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith out with injuries. Dominque has just a .906 save percentage in this series — and he has a -2.3 saves below expectation rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by two or more goals on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 7 games at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. 25* NHL 1st Round Metropolitan Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (48) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (47). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-08-22 |
Maple Leafs v. Lightning -115 | Top | 3-7 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (25) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (52-25-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Friday. Toronto (57-27-7) took a 2-1 lead in this series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay may not pull off the three-peat this season — but the defending champions remain very talented and will be a very tough out. They have been very reliable when bouncing back from a loss in the playoffs. Since 2020, they have won all 15 of their games after a loss in the postseason. Goaltender Andre Vasilevskiy has started in all 15 of those victories — and he has posted a 1.31 Goals-Against-Average with a .948 save percentage and five shutouts in those contests. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 52 games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. Furthermore, the Lightning have won 29 of their last 43 games when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto has lost 21 of their last 30 games when leading in a playoff series. While the Leafs are scoring 4.33 Goals-Per-Game in this series, they are not finding success on the Power Play. After leading the NHL with a Power Play that enjoyed a 27.3% success rate in the regular season, they are only converting on 13.3% of their Power Plays against the Lightning, ranking 11th in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 28 of their last 36 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals — and they have won 10 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NHL 1st Round Atlantic Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (25). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-06-22 |
Hurricanes v. Bruins -130 | Top | 2-4 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (50-29-5) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series after losing by a 5-2 score on the road against the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Carolina (56-20-8) has won eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has outshot the Hurricanes in both games of this series while winning the five-on-five battle — but they have not been able to put enough shots into net. Head coach Bruce Cassidy has responded to this situation by deciding to reunite the “perfection” line by moving David Pastrnak back with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand after moving Pastrnak on the second line with Taylor Hall. The Bruins should play well tonight as they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by three or more goals. Boston has also won 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. Cassidy turns to rookie Jeremy Swayman after Linus Ullmark allowed eight goals on 57 shots in the first two games of this series. The rookie had a 23-14-3 record as a starter in the regular season with a 2.41 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage. He stopped 21 of the 23 shots he faced in his lone game against the Hurricanes this season. The Bruins have won 35 of their last 51 home games when favored. Carolina committed nine penalties on Wednesday in what was a wild game — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after taking at least eight penalties in their last game. The Hurricanes have lost 28 of their last 42 games after winning their two previous games at home by more than one goal. And while they the Hurricanes have scored at least four goals in five straight games, they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least four goals in five straight games. Goalie Antti Raanta left Game Two midway through the first period with an injury which means rookie Pyotr Kochetkov will make his fifth appearance of the season. While he stoped 30 of the 32 shots he faced on Wednesday, this is a difficult assignment in making his first career postseason start in hostile territory. As it is, Carolina has lost 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 8 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has won 9 of their last 12 opportunities to host the Hurricanes on home ice. 25* NHL 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-04-22 |
Blues v. Wild -131 | Top | 2-6 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (66) versus the St. Louis Blues (65) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (53-23-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 4-0 loss at home to the Blues on Monday. St. Louis (50-23-10) has won four of their last six games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota actually won the expected goals battle by a 3.44 to 3.129 margin — but their inability to score on their six power-play opportunities let them down. The Blues scored on their first two power plays to seize an early lead — and they got a surprising shutout performance from goaltender Ville Husso making his first career postseason start. Minnesota outshot St. Louis by a 37-31 margin. The Wild should play better tonight. They have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have won 15 of their last 18 games after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. Furthermore, Minnesota has won 8 straight games after a loss at home by more than one goal — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. Additionally, the Wild have won 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than two goals — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after getting shut out in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 51 of their last 68 games — and they have won 43 of their last 54 home games when favored. They have also won 24 of their last 33 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Marc-Andre Fleury will be between the pipes again tonight after stopping 27 shots on Monday but surrendering four goals in that game with three of them coming off rebounds. Fleury is a veteran with plenty of successful playoff experience — and he posted a 9-2-0 record in his 11 starts after being shipped to Minnesota from Chicago at the trade deadline. St. Louis has lost 3 of their last 4 games after a road victory where they shut out their opponent. They have also lost 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Blues have scored at least three goals in six straight games — but they have then lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road after scoring at least three goals in their last four contests. Let’s fade Husso who has been a journeyman goalie before his career season this year as he got more playing time for the fading Jordan Binnington. While Husso had a 2.34 Goals-Against-Average with a .926 save percentage in 21 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 2.82 GAA on the road in 19 games (17 starts) with a .911 save percentage. St. Louis has still lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss at home by four or more goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (66) versus the St. Louis Blues (65). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-24-22 |
Maple Leafs v. Capitals -114 | | 4-3 |
Loss | -114 | 0 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Capitals (14) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (13). THE SITUATION: Washington (44-23-11) has won three of their last four games after their 2-0 victory at Arizona on Friday. Toronto (51-21-7) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss in overtime at Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAPITALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Washington is safely in the Eastern Conference playoffs — but they still want to pass Pittsburgh in the standings to avoid playing the red-hot Florida Panthers in the first round. They are two points behind the Penguins going into tonight’s game. The Capitals are 7-1-1 in their last nine games — and they are scoring 3.8 Goals-Per-Game in their last five games. Washington has won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last game on the road with a shut out. They return home for the first time since April 12th — and they have won 21 of their last 31 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Capitals have beaten playoff teams like Tampa Bay, Colorado, Boston, and Pittsburgh during their recent run. They have won 11 of their last 13 games against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games when favored. Toronto has lost 8 of their last 12 road games after losing to an Atlantic Division rival on the road in their last game. They have lost 8 of their last 11 games after playing in overtime the previous day. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game on the road in two days. The Maple Leafs have little to play for being locked into the second slot in the Atlantic. Head coach Sheldon Keefe may elect to rest key starters — Auston Matthews is listed as questionable as it is and defenseman Michael Bunting left the game against the Panthers with an injury that will probably keep him out tonight at least out of precaution. Erik Kallgren is the confirmed goaltender tonight. He has a 4.76 Goals-Against-Average and an .841 save percentage in six games and five starts on the road. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will be motivated to avenge a 7-3 loss at Toronto on April 14th — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. The Capitals have also won 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss by four or more goals. And in their last 15 opportunities to host the Maple Leafs, they have won 11 of these games. 10* NHL Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Washington Capitals (14) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (13). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
04-08-22 |
Bruins v. Lightning -145 | | 2-1 |
Loss | -145 | 0 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (78) versus the Boston Bruins (77). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (43-20-7) has lost three straight games after their 4-3 loss at Washington on Wednesday. Boston (43-22-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 5-3 loss at Detroit on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: As the two-time reigning Stanley Cup champions, this team appears to be lacking much motivation in the dog days of the regular. This will be a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. But when they are motivated, the Lightning can still play as good of hockey as anyone. They have won 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing by just one goal on the road. Losing three straight games should provide enough of a wake-up call for head coach John Cooper’s team. They above won 13 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Tampa Bay is still potent on offense — they are fifth in the NHL by averaging 13.19 High Danger Chances per game. But their defense has been an issue after they have allowed at least four goals in three straight games. They have won 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least three goals in their last two games — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least three goals in at least three straight contests. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been off after allowing 10 goals from 67 shots in his last two games. But he returns home now where he has a sparkling 2.20 Goals-Against-Average and a .921 save percentage in 28 starts this season. The Lightning have won 40 of their last 60 games at home with the Total set at 6. Boston lost at Detroit despite outshooting them by a 50-28 margin. But the Bruins have now lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog. Additionally, Boston has also lost 16 of their last 21 games against the Lightning — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games against them in Tampa Bay. Linus Ullmark is their goaltender tonight. He is the weaker link of the duo with Jeremy Swayman and him. He has a 2.52 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage in 18 starts on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston won the last meeting between these two teams by a 3-2 score on March 24th. The Lightning have won 20 of their last 24 games when avenging a loss on the road. They have also won 17 of their last 19 games at home when avenging a same-season loss — and they have won 11 straight games at home when playing with revenge from a loss by just one goal. 20* NHL Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (78) versus the Boston Bruins (77). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
03-12-22 |
Lightning -120 v. Oilers | | 1-4 |
Loss | -120 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (79) versus the Edmonton Oilers (80). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (37-14-6) has lost two in a row after their 4-1 loss at Calgary on Thursday. Edmonton (31-24-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory against Buffalo on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay does not lose often by multiple goals — and they have dropped two in a row by three goals after losing in Calgary by a 7-4 score on Tuesday. The Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 39 of their last 51 games after a loss by three or more goals. Tampa Bay has also won 28 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game — and this includes them winning seven of their last eight games after not netting at least two pucks in their last game. Furthermore, the Lightning have won 15 of their last 22 games after losing two in a row — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is getting the night off for rest which is why the price has dropped below my -150 price threshold — but Brian Elliott has been serviceable as his backup this season. The veteran last played on March 3rd when stopped 22 of 23 shots in a 3-1 victory against Detroit. In eight games and seven starts on the road, Elliott has a 2.42 Goals-Against-Average with a .911 save percentage this season. Tampa Bay has won 43 of their last 63 road games when favored. Edmonton has lost four of their last six games - and they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Mikko Koskinen gets the start in net tonight. In 15 games with 13 starts at home, he has been saddled with a 3.49 GAA and an .889 save percentage. The Oilers have lost 41 of their last 60 games at home as an underdog — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games as a dog this season.
FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 13 of their last 18 games against Western Conference opponents — and they have won 5 in a row against Edmonton. 20* NHL Saturday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (79) versus the Edmonton Oilers (80). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
01-27-22 |
Flames v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-5 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (44) versus the Calgary Flames (43). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (25-12-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 7-1 loss in Calgary against this Flames team. Calgary (20-12-6) has won three of their last four games after following that victory with a 6-0 shutout win at Columbus last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis returns home rested and ready to avenge that bad loss on Monday to the Flames. The Blues have won 11 of their last 16 games after a loss this season — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games this season after a loss on the road. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Back at home at the Enterprise Center, the Blues have won 13 of their last 16 games — and they have won 16 of their last 21 games at home when favored. They are enjoying a breakout season right wing Jordan Kyrou who leads the team with 41 points in his 38 games played. Backup goaltender Ville Husso get the start tonight for Jordan Binnington who got roughed up in Monday’s game — and he is having an outstanding season. Husso has a 1.88 Goals-Against-Average with a .943 save percentage in 12 starts (13 appearances) this season. At home, Husso has been even better with a 1.74 GAA and a .940 save percentage in seven starts. And in his five starts (six games) this month, Husso has a 1.13 GAA and a .965 save percentage. St. Louis has won 7 of their last 8 games against teams from the Western Conference — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Calgary is on a heater right now with their offensive attack -- they have averaged a whopping 52.3 shots in their last three games. But the Flames have lost 5 of their last 7 games after putting up at least 33 shots in three straight games. They stay on the road where they have lost 4 of their last 5 games — and they have lost 4 straight road games as the money-line underdog. They counter with Daniel Vladar between the pipes who will be making just his fifth start since December. Vladar has a 2.73 GAA and a .910 save percentage in his nine starts this year — but his best work was early in the season. In his four starts since December, he has a rough 4.17 GAA and an .869 save percentage. He has allowed at least four goals in his last three starts — and he got burned with six goals in his most recent start in Carolina on January 7th. Calgary has lost 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog overall. Additionally, the Flames have lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 15 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range.
FINAL TAKE: The laptops like Calgary with their good underlying five-on-five metrics — and those numbers are not so high on the Blues. But those numbers have limitations that the team trends referenced above expose a bit. It is a bad situation for the Flames playing the second game on the road without rest with a rusty and struggling goaltender. Calgary has lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Blues — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 games in St. Louis. The Blues have won 8 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals. 25* NHL Game of Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (44) versus the Calgary Flames (43). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
12-14-21 |
Seattle Kraken v. Sharks -125 | Top | 3-1 |
Loss | -125 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 10:38 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (40) versus the Seattle Kraken (39). THE SITUATION: San Jose (15-12-1) has won two of their last three games after their 2-1 win against Dallas on Saturday. Seattle (9-15-3) has lost three in a row after a 5-4 loss to Columbus on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SHARKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Jose should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by just one goal — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than one goal in their last contest. The Sharks have not scored more than two goals in each of their last two games — but they have won 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. James Reimer should be between the pipes tonight — he has a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average with a .931 save percentage in 15 games (14 starts). This is the first meeting between these two teams — and San Jose has won 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Seattle has lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least four goals in their last game. The Kraken has allowed at least three goals in six straight games. Seattle has lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least two goals in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least three goals in three straight games. Furthermore, the Kraken have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least three goals in at least four straight games. Chris Driedger is the confirmed goaltender for Seattle tonight. He has played in only five games this season with four starts while battling injuries — but he has struggled with a 3.60 GAA and an .876 save percentage. The Kraken has lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has lost 5 of their last 6 games against Pacific Division rivals — and San Jose has won 4 of their last 5 games against Pacific Division foes. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (40) versus the Seattle Kraken (39). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-24-21 |
Wild -115 v. Devils | Top | 3-2 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (29) versus the New Jersey Devils (39). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (11-6-1) have lost two straight and three of their last four after their 5-4 loss in a shootout at Tampa Bay on Sunday. New Jersey (8-5-3) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 5-3 win at Tampa Bay on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have won 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Wild have also won 10 of their last 11 games after losing two in a row. Additionally, Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games when playing their third game on the road in a five-day stretch. Goalie Cam Talbot got the day off in the loss to the Lightning so he should be between the pipes again tonight. While he has a 3.55 Goals-Against-Average with an .872 save percentage in five home starts, he sports a 2.60 GAA with a .921 save percentage in nine starts on the road. The Wild have allowed at least four goals in two straight games — but they have then won 9 straight games after allowing at least four goals in two straight games. Minnesota has also won 9 of their last 12 road games when favored. New Jersey has lost 23 of their last 32 games at home after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Devils have allowed at least three goals in four straight games — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 games after allowing at least three goals in four straight games. MacKenzie Blackwood should be in goal tonight with six starts under his belt since returning from an early-season injury. He has an unappealing 3.03 Goals-Against-Average so far this year. New Jersey returns home where they have lost 24 of their last 34 games — and they have lost 28 of their last 41 home games with the Total set at 6. The Devils have also lost 28 of their last 41 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 37 of their last 53 games when favored. Look for them to end their losing streak tonight against a young Devils team still playing without an injured Jack Hughes. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (29) versus the New Jersey Devils (39). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-18-21 |
Stars v. Wild -134 | Top | 2-7 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (16) versus the Dallas Stars (15). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-5-0) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-1 loss to San Jose on Tuesday. Dallas (6-6-2) has won two in a row with their 5-2 win against Detroit two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas is overvalued by the market just over a year ago from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals in the bubble. They did not make the playoffs last season — and their record this year is propped up by them winning four of their six games in overtime or shootout. The Stars have only won two of their eight games decided in regulation time. Dallas has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have lost 10 of their last 11 road games after a win or tie in their last game. They go back on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 road games with the Total set at 5.5. Anton Khudobin is the confirmed goalie for the Stars tonight. He has a 3.03 Goals-Against-Average and an .897 save percentage in five starts and six games this season. In his four games and three starts on the road, Khudobin has a 3.39 GAA and .891 save percentage. The Stars have lost 4 of their last 5 games against fellow Central Division rivals. Minnesota is off to a fast start despite only getting three goals in their best player, Kirill Kaprizov. They took a tough loss to the Sharks on Tuesday — but they have rebounded to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss at home. The Wild have also won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three or more goals on home ice. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Cam Talbot has underwhelmed so far this season with a 2.91 GAA and a .902 save percentage. Talbot was the goalie on Tuesday — and he does have a 2.36 GAA and .927 save percentage in his three starts when playing with one day of rest this year. The Wild stay at home where they have won 24 of their last 32 games — and they have won 35 of their last 51 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a losing record — and Dallas has lost 22 of their last 32 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL Central Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (16) versus the Dallas Stars (15). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
11-09-21 |
Panthers -132 v. Devils | Top | 3-7 |
Loss | -132 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Florida Panthers (13) versus the New Jersey Devils (14). THE SITUATION: Florida (10-1-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped last night with a 4-3 loss at New York against the Rangers. New Jersey (5-3-2) had their three-game losing streak snapped with a 3-2 victory at San Jose on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I have been waiting on the determination of the starting goaltender for Florida with Sergei Bobrovsky questionable with the upper-body injury that kept him out of the final two periods of his last game against Washington on Thursday. If the Panthers would have turned to Evan Patrick, I would have likely passed on this game — but Spencer Knight is going to start again tonight after giving up four goals last night. He should be feisty to redeem himself from last night’s subpar effort. He still has a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .915 save percentage in his three other starts on the road. He starred in the playoffs last year with a 2.06 GAA and a .933 save percentage in two starts last year. Florida has won 17 of their last 23 games after a loss — and they have won 21 of their last 29 games after a loss on the road. The Panthers have won 17 of their last 22 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. And in their last 5 games played without rest, Florida has won 4 of these games. They are scoring 4.1 Goals-Per-Game — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games on the road. New Jersey has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games after a win by just one goal on the road. The Devils have lost 12 of their last 14 games on home ice after losing three of their last four games. They do return home where they have lost 23 of their last 31 games. MacKenzie Blackwood is the confirmed goalie for New Jersey after making his first start of the season on Friday when he allowed three goals on 29 shots in Los Angeles against the Kings. In 19 starts at home last year, Blackwood had a 3.32 GAA and an .882 save percentage.
FINAL TAKE: Florida has won 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. The Devils have lost 37 of their last 51 home games as an underdog. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month with the money-line on the Florida Panthers (13) versus the New Jersey Devils (14). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
07-05-21 |
Lightning -143 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 |
Loss | -143 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (50-20-6) took a commanding 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with their 6-3 victory. Montreal (36-28-12) hosts this game looking to avoid a sweep and force a fifth game back in Tampa Bay.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I passed on the side play in Game Three and used that contest as a “wait and see” opportunity for Game Four. Montreal needed Game Three — and they were simply dominated. The Canadiens’ game is dependent on scoring first where they can then play defensively and lean on goalie Carey Price. They are 11-2 in the postseason when scoring first — but they have lost 6 of their 7 games when their opponent scores first. Montreal was trailing 2-0 in this crucial Game Three less than 3:30 minutes into the first period. The Canadiens are getting outplayed — and they have been outscored by a 14-5 goal margin. But the biggest difference has been the decline of play in Price. After the veteran goaltender has carried his team in the first three rounds of the playoffs, Price has not played well at all in this series. Besides allowing 13 goals, in the first three games of this series, he has a -6.2 saves below the expected number for the average goalie. Price has a .835 save percentage in this series after posting a .931 save percentage in Round One, a .941 save percentage in Round Two, and then a .933 save percentage in Round Three against Vegas. Maybe Montreal is tired? Maybe they are simply facing a team that is better against them? Maybe both. But I do not see the Canadiens picking themselves off the mat tonight. Montreal has lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. They surrendered two goals in the third period — and they have lost 16 of their last 25 games after allowing at least two goals in the third period. They are playing at home — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games at home on a three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay is 15-2 when they score first in these playoffs — and they have three lines that can score the first goal in this game against a goalie in Price that is now lacking in confidence. They are scoring 4.67 Goals-Per-Game in this series. The Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the better goaltender in this series — and the entire playoffs. He has a 1.67 Goals-Against-Average and a .948 save percentage in this series — and he has a 1.94 GAA and a .938 save percentage in the postseason overall. Tampa Bay has won 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have won 26 of their last 36 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Lightning have won 14 of their last 16 meetings against the Canadiens — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against them when playing in the Bell Centre in Montreal. Tampa Bay’s recent playoff experience should really help them tonight as they look to lift the Stanley Cup twice in a ten-month span. While there may be a fleeting thought about the positive benefit of losing this game to then win the Stanley Cup back at home in Game Five after not winning the Cup win fans in the stands last fall — but this is a too savvy a group to be foolish enough to give away games against a goaltender who can get on a hot streak again. 25* National Hockey League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-24-21 |
Golden Knights -132 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 |
Loss | -132 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (50-19-5) is on the brink of elimination in the playoffs after a 4-1 loss at home to the Canadiens on Tuesday. Montreal (35-25-12) has won ten of their last twelve games as they seized a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I am investing in Vegas tonight with full appreciation that this Canadiens team is good. General manager Mark Bergevin made some savvy offseason moves in bringing over Tyler Toffoli (the team’s leading points-scorer in the postseason), Josh Anderson (an absolute steal from Columbus), and the veteran forward Corey Perry. Midseason acquisitions of Eric Staal, Erik Gustafsson, and Jon Merrill added more veteran talent for depth and playoff experience. The absence of head coach Dominique Ducharme has not been as devastating because this group is loaded with veterans with playoff experience. This is a team built for the playoffs — and they demonstrated their potential by winning six of their first nine games before injuries and later COVID outbreaks wreaked havoc on their season. A condensed schedule down the stretch did not help matters as they made up for lost games to COVID in the early months of the year. But seeding — and home-ice — means little in the Stanley Cup playoffs. All the Canadiens needed was to get into the tournament. And now their elite goalie Carey Price has once again flipped the switch to demonstrate why he deserves to get paid over $10 million per year. This Montreal team has a profile that is similar to a Minnesota Wild group that gave the Knights in the regular season and playoffs — only with a better goaltender. That all said, I think beating this good Knights team for the fourth time in five games will be a challenge. The Canadiens have shortened their bench so much that they are using their top-line units at forward and defense over 80% of the time. Vegas remains committed to rolling four forward lines in a strategy that eventually wore down an outstanding Colorado team. Montreal has basked in the role of the underdog in this postseason with upset wins against Toronto and now their 3-2 lead over the heavily favored Knights — but now they are the favorites to win this series. And while they are at home tonight, these Game Sixes at home are dangerous because they carry with it the pressure of winning the series now or risk going on the road into a very hostile environment in a Game Seven. And Montreal does not have many fans in their stands still — so the home edge is not that prevalent. Don’t be surprised if this team suffers an emotional letdown. They have lost 20 of their last 33 games at home after a win by two or more goals. They have lost 9 of their last 13 home games after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. Vegas needs to find some answers in getting their forwards going — but they should be on fire tonight in terms of work rate and effort. The Golden Knights have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have won 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Robin Lehner will be the goaltender tonight which is fine — he had a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage during the regular season after being the first-string goalie in the postseason last year. The team needs a momentum change — and placing Lehner between the pipes may light the fire under this team. Lehner did win Game Four in his start in Montreal to even this series. Vegas has won 20 of their last 27 road games when favored. They able also won 4 of their last 5 playoff games this season when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Vegas has won 26 of their last 34 games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than one goal — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games when motivated to avenge a loss by three or more goals. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-08-21 |
Golden Knights v. Avalanche -141 | Top | 3-2 |
Loss | -141 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (36) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (35) in Game Five of their West Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (45-15-4) has lost the last two games of this series after their 5-1 loss in Las Vegas on Sunday. Vegas (46-17-4) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AVALANCHE WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I suspected that Colorado’s 7-1 victory in Game One of this series might turn out to be Pyrrhic if it gave this young team too much confidence. Despite winning Game Two in overtime, the metrics suggest that the Golden Knights outplayed them — and that means Vegas has outplayed them in each of the last three games. Head coach Jared Bednar claimed his team is trying to “be too fancy” with their shots — and likely product of them sharpshooters finding so much success in Game One against Vegas goaltender Robin Lehner (while listening to everyone tell them how good they are). The Avalanche lacks the deep playoff experience that this Vegas team possesses. The Knights have lulled Colorado into a more physical type of series that they want. That all said, it will be tough for Vegas to win three straight against this talented Avalanche team. Colorado only put up 18 shots on Sunday — and they have been outshot by a 110 to 52 margin in the last three games in this series. The Ave’s simply need to start peppering Fleury with more action to generate more scoring chances after scoring only three goals in the last two games. Colorado has won 36 of their last 53 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have won 5 straight games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. The Avalanche have also won 12 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least three goals. And in their last 9 games after losing two of their last three, Colorado has won 8 of their last 9 games. Goalie Philip Grubauer had his worst game in the postseason by allowing five goals on 35 shots. He should play better at home where he had a 19-4-1 record with a 1.60 Goals-Against-Average and a .935 save percentage. The Avalanche has won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Colorado has won 13 straight games at home — and they are 20-0-1 in their last 21 games at home in Ball Arena. It may be hard for Vegas to sustain the intensity they have felt since getting blown out in Game One. They have lost 16 of their last 27 games after allowing a victory by at least four goals. The Knights have not been great underdogs as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games as a dog — and they have lost 27 of their last 38 road games as an underdog. Vegas has also lost 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, this Golden Knights team has developed a reputation of not being able to close out playoff series — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 Game Fives.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 10 straight games on their home ice when avenging a same-season loss — and they have lost 24 of their last 30 games when motivated with revenge from a loss by four or more goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Tuesday NBC Sports Network Game of the Year with the money-line on the Colorado Avalanche (36) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (35). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
06-04-21 |
Canadiens v. Jets -108 | Top | 1-0 |
Loss | -108 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (12) versus the Montreal Canadiens (11) in Game Two of their East Division Finals series. THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (34-23-3) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 5-3 loss to the Canadiens in the opening game of this series. Montreal (29-24-1) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg may have been shaking off some rust on Wednesday after not playing since May 24th after they swept Edmonton in four games in the opening round of the playoffs. They should be sharper tonight after losing on home ice. The Jets have rebounded to win 24 of their last 36 games after a loss to a divisional opponent. And while they allowed two goals in the third period in Game One, they have then won 8 of their last 13 games after allowing at least two goals in the third period of their last game. Winnipeg will be without their top-line center in Mark Scheifele who got suspended for four games for his ugly hit on the Canadiens’ Jake Evans in the final minute of that game. The loss of Scheifele hurts — but I expect the veteran Jets’ players to rally around each other. The core of his team has won three seven-game playoff series in the last four seasons — and they made a run to the Western Conference Finals in 2018. Despite a shaky game on Wednesday, goalie Conner Hellebuyck can put his team on his shoulders. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner has a 2.01 Goals-Against-Average and a .937 save percentage in these playoffs after frustrating Auston Matthews and the Oilers in the opening round. Winnipeg has won 4 of their last 5 games on their home ice. Montreal has won four games in a row after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to upset Toronto in their opening round of the playoffs. The Canadiens may be due for a flat effort on an emotional letdown. Montreal has lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have lost 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Canadiens defeated the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score in that Game Seven, they have lost 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row by more than one goal. Additionally, Montreal has lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 games after a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. The Canadiens keep living out of suitcases to prepare for this game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in five days on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg has won 28 of their last 42 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on their home ice. Montreal also defeated the Jets by a 5-3 score in their final meeting in the regular season — but the Jets have won 15 of their last 23 games when playing with double-revenge against their opponents. 25* NHL USA Network Game of the Year with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (12) versus the Montreal Canadiens (11). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-26-21 |
Panthers v. Lightning -139 | Top | 0-4 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) versus the Florida Panthers (11) in Game Six of their Central Division Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (38-18-4) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 4-1 loss to the Panthers on Monday. Florida (39-17-5) still faces the possibility of elimination trailing 3-2 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have won 39 of their last 52 games after a loss by three or more goals in their last game. They have also won 18 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than one goal in their last game. Additionally, the Lightning have won 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. And while Tampa Bay allows two goals in the third period (including one empty netter), they have then won 10 of their last 12 games after allowing two more goals in the third period of their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is not playing bad — he has made +5.6 saves above expectation. Florida is an offensive juggernaut. Vasilevskiy needs more help from his defense. Returning home will help where head coach Jon Cooper gets the final line shift. Vasilevskiy had an 18-2-0 record on home ice this season with a 1.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .936 save percentage. Tampa Bay has won 43 of their last 60 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 6. Florida head coach Joel Quenneville made the desperate move to play rookie Spencer Knight between the pipes on Monday — and the rookie responded with 36 saves on the 37 shots he faced. Quenneville felt compelled to make the move with Sergei Bobrovsky being a failure in goal with a 5.33 Goals-Against-Average and a .841 save percentage in this series (after a 2.91 GAA and .906 save percentage in the regular season) and backup Chris Driedger posting a 3.70 GAA and a .871 save percentage in this series. I have no doubt that Knight is talented — but that was his fifth professional start in his career. He was playing for Boston College two months ago. Now he will be between the pipes in a second elimination game against the reigning Stanley Cup champions who will be throwing the kitchen sink and every trick in the book to rattle the kid — all back at home at Amalie Arena where there will be plenty of fans (because it is Florida). This is a very tough assignment. As it is, the Panthers have lost 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 11 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Florida has lost 25 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Panthers have lost 10 of their last 15 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series.
FINAL TAKE: Just to maintain perspective, Tampa Bay finished third in the Central Division despite playing without their best player, Nikita Kucherov all season. He has not missed a step in his return to action as he leads the team with nine points. There is no shame in losing to the Panthers twice — they are good. This shaped up to be a six-game series. But Tampa Bay has won 15 of their last 20 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than one goal. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (12) versus the Florida Panthers (11). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
05-24-21 |
Islanders v. Penguins -134 | Top | 3-2 |
Loss | -134 | 1 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (74) versus the New York Islanders (73) in Game Five of their East Division Semifinals playoff series. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (39-17-4) looks to rebound from losing Game Four of this series by a 4-1 score. New York (34-19-7) has still lost six of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MONEY-LINE ON THE PENGUINS: Pittsburgh has still won five of their last seven games even after their loss on Saturday. The Penguins closed out the regular season on an 18-5-2 run. They should bounce-back with a big effort tonight as they have won 5 straight games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also won 28 of their last 39 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Pittsburgh is 23-5-2 on their home ice this season — and they have won 41 of their last 55 home games when favored. Additionally, the Pens have won 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games on the road after a victory. The Islanders have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games playoff games as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 11 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss by more than one goal. 25* NHL 1st Round East Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (74) versus the New York Islanders (73). Best of luck for us — Frank. |