02-13-25 |
Hideki Matsuyama v. Ludvig Aberg +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, California, for the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. The fires in Los Angeles prompted the temporary move away from the Riviera Country Club this year. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. This is the third signature event on the PGA Tour this season with 72 professionals competing this week (29 of them also competed at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open here three weeks ago). The players with the 50 lowest scores plus ties and anyone else within strokes of the lead after Round Two will make the cut. While the pros rotate between the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open for the opening two rounds before the final two rounds are played on the South Course, only the more challenging South Course will be used this week (as was the case for the 2021 US Open). Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The Par 72 South Course consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways averaging 28 yards in width. The pros will contend with 82 sand bunkers and water that is in play on one hole. The smaller greens averaging 4800 square feet consist of Poa annua grass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Rain is expected for at least the first two rounds this week. On Thursday, there is a 90% chance of rain with winds ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. On Friday, the chance of rain is 24% with winds continuing to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7006) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:09 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We are taking a leap of faith that he has recovered from the illness that impacted him here at the Farmers Insurance Open — and he was still not right the next week when he withdrew after his Thursday round at Pebble Beach. We are experiencing several viruses out there that are putting ordinary folks on the shelf for weeks — so Aberg may not be 100%. On the other hand, the reports at Torrey Pines on Tuesday for observers watching him closely concluded that he looked great. Practicing here all week three weeks ago only helps with his knowledge of the course. At this price, he is worth the health risk since he is one of the pros best equipped to tame the long distances on the South Course. One of Aberg’s strengths is with his driver — he ranked fourth on the tour in Total Driving and tenth in Driving Distance: All Drives last season. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He began 2025 with a tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He was the betting favorite in his second tournament here at the Farmers Insurance Open at PGA West — and he was the co-leader after two rounds. Then the winds hit Friday afternoon which buried most of the pros teeing off later in the day — and then he caught what was first thought to be a stomach bug on Day Four on Saturday to settle for a tie for 42nd place. He still ranked third in the field that week in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Off-The-Tee plus SG: Approach the Green). He proved he could handle difficult courses last year with a second-place finish at the Masters. He finished last season ranking 23rd in Bogey Avoidance. He should be pretty feisty coming into this event after these frustrating recent results.
Aberg is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. We have been Matsuyama several times already this season after he began the year by winning the PGA The Sentry event in Hawai’i in early January. But he is a fade candidate right now (relative to his price) given his continued recent struggles with his driver. In settling for a tie for 25th place last week at the PGA WM Phoenix Open, he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee for the third straight tournament. This is on the wrong track to be experiencing issues with your driver given the length of the course. When he played at Torrey Pines three weeks ago at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open, he finished in 34th place. It was here where his struggles with his driver began as he still gained +6.4 strokes versus the field in Approach-The-Green. Matsuyama ranks tenth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green — but the problem is that he ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee. He ranks 167th in Total Driving and 109th in Driving Distance this season. Last year, he ranked 33rd in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee. Matsuyama is the defending champion of the Genesis Invitational — but that was hosted by the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles last year. Take Aberg (7006) versus Matsuyama (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-13-25 |
Keegan Bradley v. Shane Lowry -115 | | 74-73 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, California, for the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. The fires in Los Angeles prompted the temporary move away from the Riviera Country Club this year. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. This is the third signature event on the PGA Tour this season with 72 professionals competing this week (29 of them also competed at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open here three weeks ago). The players with the 50 lowest scores plus ties and anyone else within strokes of the lead after Round Two will make the cut. While the pros rotate between the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open for the opening two rounds before the final two rounds are played on the South Course, only the more challenging South Course will be used this week (as was the case for the 2021 US Open). Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The Par 72 South Course consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways averaging 28 yards in width. The pros will contend with 82 sand bunkers and water that is in play on one hole. The smaller greens averaging 4800 square feet consist of Poa annua grass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Rain is expected for at least the first two rounds this week. On Thursday, there is a 90% chance of rain with winds ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. On Friday, the chance of rain is 24% with winds continuing to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour.
LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7134) versus Keegan Bradley (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:47 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. With the 90% chance of rain on Thursday, we are backing one of the best professionals in the world when it comes to playing through the elements. The European players on the PGA Tour usually are more comfortable handling rain and windy conditions. Lowry won his British Open a few years ago battling wind and rain. And even better is that he is in good form right now. After missing the cut here at Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open as one of the many casualties of the bad weather that developed on Day Two, he rebounded by finishing in second place two weeks ago at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He ranks fourth on the tour so far this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks sixth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green. He leads the field this week in Par-5 Scoring. Lowry is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Last year, he ranked 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green and 17th in Total Driving. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open. He has played the Farmers Insurance Open six times as a professional (which rotates with the North Course in the first two rounds) — he has made the cut four times with his best finish being a seventh-place result.
Lowry is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley is a solid veteran who I backed in the Long Shot spot many times before — but I don’t love him playing through the wind and rain on Thursday. He ranks just 91st in Driving Distance — and he ranks 120th in Club Head Speed. He is a notoriously slow starter who ranks 87th in Round One Scoring this season after ranking 147th in that category last year. He opened this season with three top 15 finishes but he took a step back two weeks ago with a tie for 65th place at the signature event at Pebble Beach. He has a nice track record at Torrey Pines throughout his career that includes three top-five results including a second-place finish. But those were all for the Farmers Insurance Open which involves the easier North Course. Bradley did not play the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines which is exclusively on the South Course. I worry about his iron play right now. He ranks 88th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 101st in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Take Lowry (7134) versus Bradley (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-13-25 |
Collin Morikawa -120 v. Justin Thomas | | 0-1 |
Loss | -120 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, California, for the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. The fires in Los Angeles prompted the temporary move away from the Riviera Country Club this year. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. This is the third signature event on the PGA Tour this season with 72 professionals competing this week (29 of them also competed at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open here three weeks ago). The players with the 50 lowest scores plus ties and anyone else within strokes of the lead after Round Two will make the cut. While the pros rotate between the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open for the opening two rounds before the final two rounds are played on the South Course, only the more challenging South Course will be used this week (as was the case for the 2021 US Open). Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The Par 72 South Course consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways. The pros will contend with 82 sand bunkers and water that is in play on one hole. The smaller greens averaging 4800 square feet consist of Poa annua grass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Rain is expected for at least the first two rounds this week. On Thursday, there is a 90% chance of rain with winds ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. On Friday, the chance of rain is 24% with winds continuing to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7003) versus Justin Thomas (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:03 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA Genesis Invitational is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. We were on Morikawa for the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago — and he disappointed with a tie for 17th place. He had taken three weeks off after opening the PGA Tour in Hawai’i with a strong second-place finish at The Sentry. He was in great form that week by finishing third in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Even more encouraging was that he finished sixth in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Morikawa can struggle with his blade — but that result was in his third-second-place finish on a golf course with Poa Annua greens where he is more comfortable. Morikawa grew up in northern California, playing courses like this, and he thrives on courses in his home state. In his last 12 professional events in California, he has a 1st place, a 2nd place, a 3rd place, a 4th place, a 6th place, and three other top 20 finishes. Morikawa is enjoying a fantastic statistical season so far this year. He leads the PGA Tour in the following metrics: Shots-Gained: Total; Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green; Fairways Hit; Greens-In-Regulation; Birdies or Better Percentage; Bogey Avoidance. He ranks second in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee. Morikawa should be energized to lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters last season, he registered 13 straight top-25 finishes before losing touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play at the Tour Championship (and then at The Sentry) suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. He is a good fit for this course as well given some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour which neutralizes the advantage other golfers have with their putting. He enters the week ranking fifth in the field in Shots-Gained on this course. He finished in third place here for the 2023 PGA Farmers Insurance Open and in a tie for fourth place at the 2021 US Open on the South Course here.
Morikawa is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thomas was mired in a slump with his usually elite-level iron play last year — but after a tie for second place at the Zozo Championship in Japan and then a third-place finish at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas in the fall, it is safe to say that he has regained his touch. He opened the 2025 PGA Tour with a tie for 26th place at The Sentry. He followed that up with a second place at the American Express two weeks ago. He then took a step back with a tie for 46th place in the signature event at Pebble Beach two weeks ago — but he bounced back last week with a tie for sixth place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open albeit in a less competitive field than this week. Unquestionably, he is playing better — but he is still not all the way back to his previous perhaps best in the business iron play as he currently ranks 16th this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Of concern is his driver as he ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee — especially given the length of this course. But the biggest problem is still with his putting. He ranked 174th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year — and he is mired with a 55th ranking in that metric so far this season. Take Morikawa (7003) versus Thomas (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-06-25 |
Billy Horschel -130 v. Cameron Young | | 71-74 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course — but the normally 2” rough has been grown out to 3 1/2 inches this year. The 132 professionals will contend with 67 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The average width of the fairways is 33 yards. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Last year, the average score was 69.895 per round. The last five winners at this tournament have finished from 17-under to 21-under. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.
LONG SHOT: Billy Horschel (+5500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Horschel (7139) versus Cameron Young (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +5500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Horschel is heating up by following up a tie for 21st place at The American Express with a tie for ninth place last week at Pebble Beach. He finished the tournament with a round of 64 on Sunday. Recent form is important at this event since the last 14 winners had recorded a top-ten finish in at least one of their previous five starts. The 38-year-old is a wily veteran with eight PGA Tour victories under his belt including The Memorial — so has the chops to hang with top pros like Scottie Scheffler on a Sunday. He can win birdie-fest as well as he is one of the better putters on the tour — he ranked 21st in Shots-Gained: Putting last season. He has a great track record at this event having made the cut in 11 of his 12 professional appearances at TPC Scottsdale. Amongst his five top-25 finishes here includes a tie for sixth place in 2022 and a ninth place in 2020. Course history is important here as the last nine winners at this tournament had all previously finished tied for seventh or better here.
Horschel is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young began the year with a tie for eighth place at The Senty — but he then missed the cut at the PGA The American Express before a 72nd place last week at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Young is long off-the-tee — but he is currently struggling with his irons. After ranking 45th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last year, he has dropped to 126th in that category this season. He ranks 177th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this year after ranking 87th in that metric last year. Young can struggle with his putter as well. After ranking 145th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, he currently ranks 131st with his blade this season. He has made the cut in all three of his previous professional appearances here including an eighth place last year — but he settled for 26th and 64th place finishes in his other two trips. Take Horschel (7139) versus Young (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-06-25 |
Sam Burns -113 v. Tom Kim | | 0-1 |
Loss | -113 | 0 h 27 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course — but the normally 2” rough has been grown out to 3 1/2 inches this year. The 132 professionals will contend with 67 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The average width of the fairways is 33 yards. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Last year, the average score was 69.895 per round. The last five winners at this tournament have finished from 17-under to 21-under. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7005) versus Tom Kim (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:15 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer to win this tournament is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. We were on him as our Top Overlay Bet at The Sentry that began the 2025 PGA Tour — and he overcame an opening round of 72 to finish in a tie for eighth place. He finished the week gaining +3.8 strokes Off-The-Tee and another +2.9 strokes with his putter versus the field. Recent form is important at this event since the last 14 winners had recorded a top-ten finish in at least one of their previous five starts. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August. He is a good fit for this course. Burns ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. He ranked fourth on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage — and so far this season he ranks eighth in that category. He also ranked third on the PGA Tour last year in total Eagles. He has a nice track record at this event with a tie for third place last year and a tie for sixth place the year before along with a tie for 22nd place in 2022. In his last two trips here, he has averaged 67.38 strokes per round. Course history is important here as the last nine winners at this tournament had all previously finished tied for seventh or better here. Burns has five victories on the PGA Tour — so he is battled-tested on Sundays.
Burns is linked with Tom Kim in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Kim comes off his best tournament of 2025 with a tie for seventh place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. He previously missed the cut at the PGA The American Express after settling for 65th place at the PGA Sony Open. Kim’s strength is his accuracy with his irons — but he can struggle with his putter. He ranked 114th on tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the grainy Bermuda greens with the Poa overseer can pose a challenge for him. He has not been great with his driver this season as he ranks 106th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee after ranking 64th in that metric last season. He has two previous starts here with his best result being a tie for 17th place. Take Burns (7005) versus Kim (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-06-25 |
Hideki Matsuyama -118 v. Sungjae Im | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course — but the normally 2” rough has been grown out to 3 1/2 inches this year. The 132 professionals will contend with 67 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The average width of the fairways is 33 yards. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Last year, the average score was 69.895 per round. The last five winners at this tournament have finished from 17-under to 21-under. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.
BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7003) versus Sugjai Im (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:04 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA WM Phoenix Open is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Matsuyama has enjoyed a good start to the season after beginning 2025 with a victory at The Sentry in Hawai’i. Recent form is important at this event since the last 14 winners had recorded a top-ten finish in at least one of their previous five starts. He comes off a subpar effort last week at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am when he finished tied for 48th place — but inclement weather messed with many of the professionals' games last week. After ranking third in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season, he ranks 11th in that category so far this year. He ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season after ranking 15th in that metric last year. He also led the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green in 2024. Course history is a critical component for predicting success at this tournament, especially given the unique crowd interaction that can throw off some of the pros. The last nine winners at this tournament had all previously finished tied for seventh or better here. Matsuyama has thrived at TPC Scottsdale with first-place finishes in 2016 and 2017. Overall, he has made the cut in 10 of his 11 visits with eight top 25s including a tie for second and fourth place to go with his two victories.
Matsuyama is linked with Sungjae Im with Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Im has been inconsistent so far this season. He has two top-four finishes — but he missed the cut at the PGA The American Express and comes off a tied for 33rd place last week at Pebble Beach. His irons are off. After ranking 99th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has dropped to 163rd in that category this season. He ranks 75th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this year after ranking 29th last year. And he may be overachieving with his putter so far this season by ranking 16th in Shots-Gained: Putting after ranking 65th in that category last year. Im has made the cut in all five of his trips here but he has never finished better than sixth place. Take Matsuyama (7003) versus Im (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-30-25 |
Corey Conners v. Taylor Pendrith -115 | | 70-67 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event undergone some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.
LONG SHOT: Taylor Pendrith (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7120) versus Corey Conners (7119) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:01 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +4500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Pendrith is playing great golf right now. The Canadien finished in a tie for seventh place at the Farmers Insurance Open last week — it was his top-13 finish in 2023 and his 11th top-15 result since the start of last season. He ranks seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. He can compete at birdie-fests where putting is critical since he ranked fifth on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranked 13th in Birdies or Better Percentage. Pendrith last appeared at this event in 2023 when he finished in seventh place.
Pendrith is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners finished in a tie for fifth place at The Sentry to begin the 2025 season before missing the cut the next week in Hawai’i at the Sony Open. He returns to the PGA Tour in the third event on the west coast swing with questions about his form. After finishing third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he is only 45th in that category this season. I’m not sure he is a great fit for this course. With the small greens and the 116 sand bunkers, the short game is critical for success at this event. Conners ranks 117th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green this year after ranking 124th in that category last year. Conners finished 31st in this event last year — but he missed the cut in 2018 and 2019 indicating this may not be his preferred course. Play Pendrith versus Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-30-25 |
Ludvig Aberg -119 v. Tommy Fleetwood | | 77-71 |
Loss | -119 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event underwent some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7115) versus Tommy Fleetwood (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:48 AM ET. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at this tournament. He co-led this event after the first two rounds — and he gained almost three strokes versus the field with his putter. One of Aberg’s strengths is with his driver — and the short distance at this course neutralizes that edge of his. But Aberg is such a bright and promising talent because of his well-rounded skillset. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green - and he ranked sixth on the tour in Proximity from 75 to 100 yards which will often be his approach distance given his length off the tee. He began 2025 with a tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He was the betting favorite in his second tournament last week at the Farmers Insurance Open at PGA West — and he was the co-leader after two rounds. Then the winds hit Friday afternoon which buried most of the pros teeing off later in the day — and then he caught a stomach bug on Day Four on Saturday to settle for a tie for 42nd place. He should be pretty feisty coming into this event after that disappointing finish.
Aberg is linked with Tommy Fleetwood in Round One head-to-head props. Fleetwood enjoyed a solid season on the PGA Tour last year — headlined by his tie for third place at the Masters last April. But he has still not won an event on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut at the British Open before later settling for 20th place at the PGA Tour Championship in late August. He splits time on the DP World Tour and makes his 2025 PGA Tour debut at this event — so he may need some adjustment time to golf in the US again. As it is, he ranked 76th in Round One Scoring at PGA events last year. He is not a great fit for this course either. His accuracy off-the-tee but lack of length is a great start for Pebble Beach — but he only ranked 92nd on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fleetwood is great with his short game which pays dividends in saving par at difficult tournaments like the Masters or the British Open — but he does not excel at the skills necessary to put up big numbers on easier courses. Fleetwood ranked 163rd on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage. My skepticism bears out in his course history. In preparation for the 2019 US Open, Fleetwood settled for a 45th place at the Pro-Am — and he shot three-over par in Round One. At the more challenging conditions of a US Open here later that summer, he finished in 65th place. He played the Pro-Am in 2020 when he finished tied for 31st place after an opening round of one-under par. Aberg opened with a four-under-par in Round One here last year. Take Aberg (7115) versus Fleetwood (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-30-25 |
Collin Morikawa -110 v. Justin Thomas | | 69-66 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event underwent some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Justin Thomas (7005) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:35 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa has taken the last three weeks off after opening the PGA Tour in Hawai’i with a strong second place finish in The Sentry. He was in great form that week by finishing third in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Even more encouraging was that he finished sixth in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting |
01-16-25 |
Kurt Kitayama v. Siwoo Kim -110 | | 69-68 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This traditional Pro-Am event features 156 professional golfers rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This Par 72 course is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Si Woo Kim (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Woo Kim (7144) versus Kurt Kitayama (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:58 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +3500 odds. Woo Kim has something to prove this week after missing the cut last week at the PGA Sony Open. The problem was with his putter as he lost six strikes on the green. His irons were reliable for him as he ranked eighth for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. Last year, he ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 14th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and reaching the green in regulation will generate birdie opportunities. He is one of the few players in the field who ranked in the top 40 in the following categories last year which should translate well for this event: Shots-Gained: Approach the Green; Shots-Gained: Putting; Birdies or Better Percentage; Shots-Gained: Total at Easy Courses. Woo Kim has a great track record at this event which he won in 2021. He has three top-11s in his seven trips to this golf course as a pro with four straight top-25 results. While he struggled with his putter last week, he has never lost strokes versus the field with his blade on this golf course.
Hall is linked with Kurt Kitayama in Round One head-to-head props. Kitayama finished in 37th place at the PGA Sony Open in his 2025 debut last week. He is a solid player — but he tends to perform better on longer courses that are more challenging. He ranked 15th Longest Drives last season — but that will not help him at the trio of shorter courses. He is not a great putter — he ranked 171st in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. That contributed to him ranking just 100th in Birdies or Better Percentage. He has only played this event once in 2022 — and he missed the cut. Take Woo Kim (7144) versus Kitayama (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-16-25 |
Davis Thompson v. Harry Hall +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This traditional Pro-Am event features 156 professional golfers rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This Par 72 course is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.
LONG SHOT: Harry Hall (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hall (7022) versus Davis Thompson (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:14 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Harry Hall who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Hall followed up a tie for eighth place at The Sentry with another tie for eighth place at the PGA Sony Open last week. Shooting 35-under par in the two events in the Hawai’i swing of the tour is a nice way to come into this tournament which will require low scores to win. He has a hot putter right now. He has now made the cut in 11 of his last 13 tournaments including eight top-15s worldwide including a first place at the Isco Championship. Hall is an outstanding chipper — he ranked sixth in Shots-Gained: Around the Green on the PGA Tour last year. His overall game is good — he ranks third in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total. He also leads the field this week in Birdies or Better Percentage after ranking third in that category on the PGA Tour last year. This is his fourth trip to this tournament as a professional but he is very familiar with desert conditions like this as a Las Vegas resident who attended UNLV. He has made the cut in two of his three previous appearances.
Hall is linked with Davis Thompson in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thompson comes into this event in not great form. After a tie for 36th place at The Sentry, he missed the cut last week at the PGA Sony Open. He ranks just 127th this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is not a great putter which is problematic for birdie fest like this tournament. Last year, Thompson ranked 90th in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranks 125th in that category so far this year. He ranked 44th in Birdies or Better Percentage last year. He did finish second at this event in 2023 but dropped to a tie for 21st last year. Take Hall (7022) versus Thompson (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and gran the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-16-25 |
Sam Burns +1.5 v. Patrick Cantlay | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This traditional Pro-Am event features 156 professional golfers rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This Par 72 course is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.
BEST BET: Sam Burns (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7007) versus Patrick Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:41 AM ET.
Our Best Bet on the golfer to win this tournament is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. We were on him as our Top Overlay Bet at The Sentry that began the 2025 PGA Tour — and he overcame an opening round of 72 to finish in a tie for eighth place. He finished the week gaining +3.8 strokes Off-The-Tee and another +2.9 strokes with his putter versus the field. His last event in 2024 was the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas where he finished tied for 14th place which was actually his worst result in his last six tournaments. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August. He is a good fit for this course. Burns ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage. He has a great track record at this event with two top-sixes, a tie for 11th, and a tie for 18th place in his five trips. He shares the course record at the Nicklaus Tournament course with a round of 61. He enters this event with a chip on his shoulder after blowing the 36-hole lead last year when he settled for a tie for sixth place. Burns has five victories on the PGA Tour — so he is battled-tested on Sundays. He also taps into a nice trend at this tournament as 14 of the last 16 champions played in at least one of the events in Hawai’i earlier in January.
Burns is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay began his 2025 campaign with a tie for 15th place at The Sentry — but he struggled with irons in his approach game which continued a troubling liability in his game last year. He ranked just 122nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in 2024 after placing 16th in that metric the previous season. As a result, Cantlay only posted four top-ten finishes last year. He finished tied for 15th place at this event last year — but his form with his irons is not a good sign for a tournament that will see very low scoring. Take Burns (7007) versus Cantlay (2008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-09-25 |
Taylor Pendrith +1.5 v. Sahith Theegala | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.820 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways feature 83 sand bunkers — and water comes into play on five of the holes. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week but still averaging a large 7100 square feet in size. The Bermuda greens average up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The cut after 36 holes will include the top 65 scorers plus ties. It is not uncommon for wind coming off the Pacific Ocean to play a role at this event. Wind gusts are expected to reach 20 miles per hour on Thursday.
LONG SHOT: Taylor Pendrith (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7019) versus Sahith Theegala (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:00 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Pendrith has been very consistent with seven straight top-25 finishes going back to 2024 after his tie for 10th place at the Sentry last week. He has also made the cut in 12 straight events — and he finished in the top 25 in nine of those tournaments. He is an intriguing option this week because he is so good with his putter. He ranked fifth in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. Twelve of the last 15 winners of this tournament finished the week ranked in the top ten in Shots-Gained: Putting. He was lukewarm with his blade last week despite finishing 10th — he finished seventh in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. If he maintains that level of iron play this week while getting his putting stroke back, he can win this tournament. He finished in 10th place at this tournament last year despite losing strokes Off-The-Tee.
Pendrith is linked with Sahith Theegala in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Theegala finished in 36th place at the Sentry last week in an event where he lost strokes versus the field in Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green, Strokes-Gained: Around the Green, and Strokes-Gained: Putting. He is not a great fit for this course. Theegala can bomb it off the tee — but accuracy is an issue. He ranked 129th in Driving Accuracy last year — and there are narrow forwards at the Waialae County Club this week. He has only made the cut once in his two trips here — and his best finish was just a tie for 48th place. Take Pendrith (7019) versus Theegala (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-09-25 |
Corey Conners -150 v. Tom Kim | | 0-1 |
Loss | -150 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.820 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways feature 83 sand bunkers — and water comes into play on five of the holes. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week but still averaging a large 7100 square feet in size. The Bermuda greens average up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The cut after 36 holes will include the top 65 scorers plus ties. It is not uncommon for wind coming off the Pacific Ocean to play a role at this event. Wind gusts are expected to reach 20 miles per hour on Thursday.
BEST BET: Corey Conners (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7005) versus Tom Kim (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:50 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA Sony Open is on Corey Conners who is listed at +1400 odds to lift the trophy at DraftKings. Conners is one of the best pure ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranked third on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranked 10th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. The weaker part of his skill set is with his short game. Chipping is not a required skill needed to thrive on this course. About two-thirds of the professionals reached the green-in-regulation last year — and the larger greens make it easier to reach the putting surface. Conners has three straight top-seven finishes after his tie for fifth place at The Sentry last week. Conners led the field in Shots-Gained: Putting which is a great sign for him this week. He also led the field in the total distance of his made putts last week. Inside of ten feet, Conners converted 59 of his 61 putts which also led the field. It was actually his normally reliable Tee-To-Green form that kept him from competing with the red-hot Hideki Matsuyama to win the tournament. He should be better with his ball-striking since those skills are considered more consistent from week-to-week. Conners ranked 10th in Shots-Gained: Total last year which looks even better since most of the top professionals left Hawai’i after last week. Eight of the last 11 winners of this tournament competed the previous week at the Sentry. Seven of the last eight winners finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. Conners has a great track record at this event. He has made the cut in all six of his previous trips here with four top 12s including a third place in 2019.
Conners is linked with Tom Kim in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Kim did not qualify for the Sentry — so he comes to Hawai’i needing to knock off some rust having not played a professional event since the middle of December — and only three of the last 11 winners did not play at the Sentry the previous week. Kim ranked just 52nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green in 2024 — and seven of the last ten winners here finished in the top five for that week in that category. Kim’s strength is his accuracy with his irons — but he can struggle with his putter. He ranked 114th on tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the grainy Bermuda greens can pose a challenge for him. In the last 15 tournaments here at the Waialae Country Club, 12 of the first-place winners finished in the top ten in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. This is just the second time he is playing this course — and missed the cut here last year while losing -6.7 strokes versus the field in putting. Take Conners (7005) versus Kim (7006) Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
01-09-25 |
Russell Henley -150 v. Robert Macintyre | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.820 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways feature 83 sand bunkers — and water comes into play on five of the holes. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week but still averaging a large 7100 square feet in size. The Bermuda greens average up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The cut after 36 holes will include the top 65 scorers plus ties. It is not uncommon for wind coming off the Pacific Ocean to play a role at this event. Wind gusts are expected to reach 20 miles per hour on Thursday.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Russell Henley (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7009) versus Robert MacIntyre (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:40 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value at this tournament relative to the odds is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Henley finished with six top-seven results last year including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Tour Championship. He is one of the best ball-strikers in this field this week. Last year, he ranked 30th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 30th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and most of the golfers ranked ahead of him are not competing at this event. Overall, he ranked 15th in Shots-Gained: Total. He finished tied for 30th place at the Sentry last week — and eight of the last 11 winners at this tournament competed in Hawai’i at the Sentry the previous week. He saw encouraging results with his ball-striking last week as he ranked in the top 20 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last week while ranking in the top five in accuracy. Now he returns to the Waialae Country Club where he won this tournament in 2013 in his debut on the PGA Tour. He has three other top-five finishes here since among six top-20s in his 12 trips. In his last 16 rounds at the Sentry, he has an average score of 65.94. He leads the field in Shots-Gained at this tournament in the last five events. He has finished in the top 11 in three of the last four tournaments here including a fourth-place result last year after going into the final day with the lead. He should have a chip on his shoulder to prove something this after blowing that Sunday lead.
Henley is linked with Robert MacIntyre in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. MacIntyre broke out last summer with a victory in his native land in the Genesis Scottish Open. But he is not a great fit for this shorter course which requires accuracy with the middle irons. MacIntyre ranks 113th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 57th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and seven of the last eight winners of this event finished the week in the top five in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. This is his second trip to Honolulu to play in this tournament — but he settled for just 52nd place last year. Take Henley (7009) versus MacIntyre (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-02-25 |
Adam Scott -119 v. Jason Day | | 68-70 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.
LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Scott (7119) versus Jason Day (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:15 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Adam Scott who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Scott comes off a very nice season last year when he finished in second place at both the Genesis Scottish Open and the PGA BMW Championship. He finished tied for fourth place at the PGA Tour Championship — and he comes off a third place in Dubai his most recent event. Scott is a good fit for this course. He can handle the length — he ranked 15th in Driving Distance (all drives) last year. He is a good putter on slower greens. He is also adept with his irons when dealing with uneven lies. He has played this course as a professional eight times with four top-seven finishes including a second-place result. Six Aussies have won this tournament in its 21 years — so why not Scott to make it seven?
Scott is linked with Jason Day for Round One head-to-head props. Day is a great putter but he has been struggling with his irons lately. He ranked 152nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year. In his last 36 rounds, he ranks 55th in this 60-player field in that category. That is not a good sign on a long course since distance off the tee is not his specialty. Day ranked 99th in the field last year in Total Driving and 93rd in Driving Distance. Take Scott (7119) versus Day (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-02-25 |
Justin Thomas v. Collin Morikawa +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 0 h 9 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Justin Thomas (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win The Sentry is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa took the last two and half months off the PGA Tour — so he comes in fresh. He should be energized lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters, he registered 13-straight top 25 finishes before losing his touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play the Tour Championship suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. Putting can be an issue for Morikawa — but proficiency with his blade is less an obstacle on slower greens. With seven top-ten finishes in January throughout his career, he should come out of the gates firing. He has a great track record on this golf course as well. In his five trips to the Kapalua resort as a professional, he has never finished worse than seventh place including a second place in 2023. He botched his lead that year to Jon Rahm so getting a win now would offer some redemption — and it certainly does not hurt that Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week due to an injury. Morikawa has family ties to Maui so taking first place has extra emotional appeal this week.
Morikawa is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thomas was mired in a slump with his usually elite-level iron play — but after a tie for second place at the Zozo Championship in Japan and then a third-place finish at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas in the fall, it is safe to say that he has regained his touch. But the problem still is with his putting. He ranked 174th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. The average score per round at this tournament last year was 68.364 — almost five under-par. Putting problems is not the formula for success at birdies-fests. Thomas ranked 42nd in Birdies or Better Percentage last year. Morikawa, on the other hand, ranked 19th in that category. Take Morikawa (7006) versus Thomas (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
01-02-25 |
Sam Burns +0.5 v. Viktor Hovland | | 72-70 |
Loss | -135 | 0 h 5 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7109) versus Viktor Hovland (7110) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. His last event was the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas where he finished tied for 14th place which was actually his worst result in his last five tournaments. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August. He is a good fit for this course. He can handle the length — he ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. Additionally, he ranks 20th in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green which represents an uptick in the quality of his iron play. This is his fourth trip to the Kapalua Resort with his best previous finish being a tie for 19th place.
Burns is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. We have won lots of money because of Hovland over the years — but this is not the time to back him. He has not played a professional event since the PGA Tour Championship at the end of August. He has a new coach after breaking up with his previous coach, Joe Mayo, once again (he parted ways with him early last year before reuniting again later in the year). He then broke his toe and will be playing through that injury. As it is, he has not finished better than 18th place in his four previous trips here all under better circumstances. His Achilles’ heel is his chipping game — and that is worrisome with him knocking off some rust in this event. Take Burns (7109) versus Hovland (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-29-24 |
Ludvig Aberg +1.5 v. Rory McIlroy | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. The Donald Ross-designed course has undergone a full restoration by Andrew Green that took ten months to complete after last year’s tournament. Previously a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards, it’s now a Par 71 after 144 yards were added to the new 7490 distance in yards. The 14th hole is now the third Par 5 hole on the course with 60 yards added to the now 580 yards to the hole. The pros will encounter 78 sand bunkers which is four more than in the past. Many of the older bunkers were relocated. Fewer trees protect the fairways. Water now impacts eight of the holes, up two from the past. The fairway grass has transitioned from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia. Last year, the greens consisted of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Now the greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass with an 11% bump in size up to 6238 square feet. The size, shape, contouring, and surrounding runoff areas of each green complex. The field consists of 30 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).
BEST BET: Ludvig Aberg to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we want the prop for best raw score this week) (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7012) versus Rory McIlroy (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:27 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to post the best score this week (without the starting strokes) is on Ludvig Aberb who is listed at +1600 at DraftKings for this prop. I had faded Aberg several times this year (against top-level competition) since the Swedish native lacked experience in his second year on the PGA Tour — but here I am backing him as our Best Bet for the second week in a row. Usually, he is learning the intricacies of the course on the fly against peers who have years of professional experience on the track. That disadvantage was neutralized last week at the PGA BMW Championship since the Castle Pines Golf Course outside Denver had not hosted a PGA event since 2006. Aberb responded with a tie for second place — and he could have easily taken it home on Sunday if not for a couple of bad iron choices when accounting for the high altitude. I thought Aberg would handle the altitude a little better given his success in the high altitude in the DP Tour event in Switzerland (and it’s not like second place is bad). Now he plays at the East Lake Golf Club for the first time as a professional — but that disadvantage is neutralized significantly given the multitude of changes on this course after the ten-month renovation. Despite his professional inexperience with the PGA Tour regular stops, Aberg is still having a great season. He now has seven top-ten finishes (and five top-fives) in 2024 including a second place in his debut at Augusta National at the Masters in April. He also has three runner-up finishes in his last 16 tournaments. Aberg has been consistently listed as a top ten favorite by the books on the tour which is a testament to his elite skill talent. His power should play well on this long track. Aberg ranks second on the tour in Total Driving. He is also long and accurate with his irons — he ranks 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Additionally, Aberg ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which demonstrated his overall strength with his driver and irons. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage. He is the highest-seeded pro who has yet to win on the PGA Tour this year — he starts with a -5 with his adjusted score. To compete to win the Tour Championship, he needs to put up a big number. I like pros who are in spots like him since he faces less initial pressure than golfers like Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele who are up top in the starting scores and expected to compete and win.
Aberg is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McIlroy is a three-time FedEx Tour Champion at East Lake — but his course experience edge is minimized this week given all the changes on the course. He played better last week with a tie 11th place at the PGA BMW Championship outside Denver — but he did not register a round in the 60s all week. From all indications, McIlroy remains in the middle of a nightmare existential crisis since his Sunday collapse at the US Open where he blew bunny putts to hand that tournament to Bryson DeChambeau. He has been a mess with his putter — and the top-four finishers at this tournament last year also finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has not had an above-average putting performance in any of his four tournaments since then. He missed the cut at the British Open which was a critical event for him. His driving was lost two weeks ago when he finished 68th of the 70 golfers in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs at the FedEd St. Jude. The analytics illuminate why he is experiencing a down season. After ranking eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has dropped to 42nd in that category in 2024. He was 14th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green for the 2022-23 season but ranks 42nd in that area this year. He ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. He starts 4-under par with his starting strokes — but this looks like a guy looking forward to a long offseason to regroup and pick up the pieces as he begins the long road back to the Masters next April. Take Aberg (7012) versus McIlroy (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-29-24 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Sam Burns +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. The Donald Ross-designed course has undergone a full restoration by Andrew Green that took ten months to complete after last year’s tournament. Previously a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards, it’s now a Par 71 after 144 yards were added to the new 7490 distance in yards. The 14th hole is now the third Par 5 hole on the course with 60 yards added to the now 580 yards to the hole. The pros will encounter 78 sand bunkers which is four more than in the past. Many of the older bunkers were relocated. Fewer trees protect the fairways. Water now impacts eight of the holes, up two from the past. The fairway grass has transitioned from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia. Last year, the greens consisted of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Now the greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass with an 11% bump in size up to 6238 square feet. The size, shape, contouring, and surrounding runoff areas of each green complex. The field consists of 30 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).
TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7018) versus Patrick Cantlay (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:16 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value to shoot the lowest score for the week is on Sam Burns who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings with that prop. Burns is in top form right now after following up his tie for fifth place at the PGA Fed-Ex St. Jude in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs with a tie for fifth place last week at the PGA BMW Championship. He posted a round of 65 on Sunday. He is riding a hot putter right now — he ranks second in Shots-Gained: Putting in the first two legs of the playoffs. For the season, Burns ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Putting which is critical this week. The top-four finishers at this tournament all finished in the seven in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. Burns also thrives on Bermuda greens — and many of the pros may struggle with the grainy TifEagle surface that is new to the course this week. Burns also ranks tied for second in Par 3 Scoring and third in Par 4 Scoring in the last two weeks. He leads all the pros in the playoffs in converting greens hit into Par Breakers. In his last four tournaments, he has gained more than 2.0 strokes versus the field with his irons. He came into the playoffs off a tie for 12th place at the PGA 3M Open. In his last 14 rounds, he has scored 67 or better six times. Overall this season, he ranks 12th in Total Driving and 11th in Shots-Gained: Total. This is his fourth visit to East Lake after coming off a tie for fourth place in raw scoring last year. He shot 67 or better in three of those four rounds last year — and only Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland matched that achievement last year (and they shared the low score for the week). Burns starts the week with a 4-under adjusted score — so he needs a big number to compete for the Tour Championship this week. I like pros who are in spots like him since he faces less initial pressure than golfers like Scottie Scheffler or Schauffele who are up top in the starting scores and expected to compete and win.
Burns is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay is playing better — but he has still experienced an inconsistent season. He comes off a solid tie for 13th place at the PGA BMC Championship after a 12th place at TPC Southwind at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs. But he has only finished in the top ten four times in 2024 (and only twice since mid-April). Cantlay has had success in the FedEx playoffs including winning the 2021 championship. He ranks 114th in Total Driving this season which has dragged him down to 59th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranked fourth on the tour in that category last season. He ranks 48th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing third on the tour in that category last year. He is also just 96th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green after ranking 16th in that metric last year. The pros rarely can simply flip the switch in these playoffs during this three-week span — but there are plenty of examples of hot golfers seeing their momentum carry over into the next week. We cashed with Hovland both at last year’s PGA BMW Championship and then at East Lake when shared the low score for the week with Schauffele. The full restoration at East Lake also takes some of the institutional experience edge Cantlay has at this tournament. Take Burns (7018) versus Cantlay (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-29-24 |
Billy Horschel -145 v. Robert Macintyre | | 0-1 |
Loss | -145 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. The Donald Ross-designed course has undergone a full restoration by Andrew Green that took ten months to complete after last year’s tournament. Previously a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards, it’s now a Par 71 after 144 yards were added to the new 7490 distance in yards. The 14th hole is now the third Par 5 hole on the course with 60 yards added to the now 580 yards to the hole. The pros will encounter 78 sand bunkers which is four more than in the past. Many of the older bunkers were relocated. Fewer trees protect the fairways. Water now impacts eight of the holes, up two from the past. The fairway grass has transitioned from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia. Last year, the greens consisted of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Now the greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass with an 11% bump in size up to 6238 square feet. The size, shape, contouring, and surrounding runoff areas of each green complex. The field consists of 30 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).
LONG SHOT: Billy Horschel to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Horschel (7043) versus Robert MacIntyre (7044) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to post the lowest score this week is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +3000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Horschel followed up his tie for second place at the British Open last month with a tie for seventh place at the Wyndham Championship. He opened up in the FedEx playoffs with a tie for 10th place at the FedEx St. Jude. He followed that up last week with a tie for 22nd place at the PGA BMW Championship after his second round of 74 held him back from a better result. The 37-year-old has still finished in the top 25 in 15 of his 27 tournaments this year — and he has six top-ten results during that stretch which included winning the Corales Puntacana Championship in April. The Florida native thrives when putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks 17th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and the top-four finishers at this tournament last year also finished the week in the top seven in putting. Horschel loves playing at East Lake where he won the Tour Championship in 2014 and finished in second place in 2018 amongst his six trips. He is perhaps playing as well right now as he was when to lifted the trophy here ten years ago. In his last five tournaments, he has gained six strokes on average versus the field. He loves playing at Donald Ross-designed courses — and he has extra motivation this week since he is on the bubble to make the President’s Team for the United States. Horschel ranks 21st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and the balance in his game will help him on this course.
Horschel is linked with Robert MacIntyre in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. MacIntyre began the FedEx playoffs with a tie for seventh place at the FedEx St. Jude — but he withdrew last week from the PGA BMW Championship last week due to back pain. Coming in with back issues is far from ideal. After winning the Genesis Scottish Open last month, he settled for a tie for 50th place at the British Open before missing the cut at the PGA Wyndham Championship. He admitted he partied hard after winning his home nation’s national championship — so that may explain his drop off in form ever since. He has never played East Lake as a professional — and I’m not sure if his back limited his practice round schedule this week. What I do know is that he ranks 107th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and Ross-designed courses privilege precious with iron play. Take Horschel (7043) versus MacIntyre (7044) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-22-24 |
Rory McIlroy v. Collin Morikawa -110 | | 70-70 |
Push | 0 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Course in Castle Rock, Colorado located south of Denver. There are two unique dynamics at play this week for a PGA Tour event. First, the professionals will have to contend with the high altitude of 6000 square feet above sea level — and given the layout, the golfers will grapple with a 400-foot drop and rise in elevation throughout the course. Second, the last time this course hosted a PGA Tour event was the International tournament in 2006. Only Adam Scott and Jason Day have played this course in a professional environment — so this is one of those rare moments where the course offers close to a true neutral site in regards to course history and experience. There have been significant renovations since that time. This is a Par 72 track consisting of a massive 8130 yards. That length needs to be contextualized with the high altitude — the general rule is that the ball travels 10% longer at 6000 square feet. In practice, the course projects to play like a track ranging from 7250 to 7450 yards. Three of the four Par 5 holes are of at least 600 yards. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Pine trees protect narrow fairways of 26 to 30 yards. Sand bunkers are scattered near the greens. Water impacts ten of the holes. The Kentucky bluegrass rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface averages 5600 square feet consisting of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua that measures perhaps past 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The top thirty golfers in the FedEx standings after this event advance to the Tour Championship in the last leg of the playoffs next week at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7144) versus Rory McIlroy (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is Collin Morikawa who is at +1400 odds at DraftKings. I wrestled with either Morikawa or Wyndham Clark for one of my top two golfers to endorse. Morikawa lost -4.7 strokes in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus the SG: Approach-the-Green) — so his form is not ideal. Clark is a member of the Castle Pines Golf Course after being a high school superstar golfer literally down the street — so he has tons of experience at the course and playing in this altitude. But odds are important — it defines what I am looking to endorse in a Top Overlay Bet. Clark opened the week at +3500 odds in many spots — and he is now at +2500 odds at DraftKings. The betting market has already reduced the price on Clark given his course familiarity — and that edge only counts for so much. On the other hand, Morikawa would likely be priced in the +1000 range to win this tournament this week before his recent slide with his irons. So, this situation is textbook Overlay when it comes to value. Admittedly, Morikawa has seen his Ball-Striking numbers decline in three straight events. And while he finished 22nd last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he was just 68th of the 70 professionals in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. What a strange turn of events recently. Outside of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, probably no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 24 in 13 straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in the last nine events of his last 11 events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a 24th-place finish at the Olympics last month — but he did enjoy his best tournament in terms of the Shots-Gained: Approach the Green data all season in Paris. His cumulative results at the four major championships this season were second only to Scheffler. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play this year. Even with his recent slump, he remains only one of three golfers this week that ranks in the top 15 in the field in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. He has thrived at Nicklaus courses with victories at Montreaux, Muirfield Village, and the Concession previously — and his fourth place at the PGA Championship was at Valhalla which Nicklaus also designed. Morikawa also has plenty of experience playing in higher altitudes — his usual practice course is at the Summit Club on the north side of town in Las Vegas (I’m south side) where the altitude is 3000 square feet above sea level. Morikawa ranks fourth in the FedEx standings as well — so he is plenty motivated for a big week which can help position him to win the playoffs next week with the benefit of the adjusted strokes.
Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head props. The final reason to choose Morikawa over Clark (but I may still take a flier on Clark as a fourth golfer this week) is that he has a plum head-to-head matchup. If Morikawa remains in a slump, at least he is matched with a golfer in the middle of a nightmare existential crisis. He finished 68th of the 70 golfers last week at the FedEd St. Jude. Since his Sunday collapse at the US Open where he blew bunny putts to hand that tournament to Bryson DeChambeau, he has been a mess with his putter. He has not had an above-average putting performance in any of his four tournaments since then. He missed the cut at the British Open which was a critical event for him. His driving was lost last week. Now he plays at a course where he lacks experience and adds the uncertainty of adjusting to the altitude. His lack of confidence does not bode well for these unusual circumstances — especially in Round One. On the other hand, Morikawa ranks third on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring — and he has a history of good scoring on Thursdays at Nicklaus-designed courses. He was fifth after Day One at the PGA Championship at Valhalla earlier this year. He has enjoyed two solo leads after Day at the Memorial at Muirfield Village — and he was in third place after the first 18 holes this year. Take Morikawa (7144) versus McIlroy (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-22-24 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick +0.5 v. Corey Conners | | 74-68 |
Loss | -106 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Course in Castle Rock, Colorado located south of Denver. There are two unique dynamics at play this week for a PGA Tour event. First, the professionals will have to contend with the high altitude of 6000 square feet above sea level — and given the layout, the golfers will grapple with a 400-foot drop and rise in elevation throughout the course. Second, the last time this course hosted a PGA Tour event was the International tournament in 2006. Only Adam Scott and Jason Day have played this course in a professional environment — so this is one of those rare moments where the course offers close to a true neutral site in regards to course history and experience. There have been significant renovations since that time. This is a Par 72 track consisting of a massive 8130 yards. That length needs to be contextualized with the high altitude — the general rule is that the ball travels 10% longer at 6000 square feet. In practice, the course projects to play like a track ranging from 7250 to 7450 yards. Three of the four Par 5 holes are of at least 600 yards. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Pine trees protect narrow fairways of 26 to 30 yards. Sand bunkers are scattered near the greens. Water impacts ten of the holes. The Kentucky bluegrass rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface averages 5600 square feet consisting of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua that measures perhaps past 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The top thirty golfers in the FedEx standings after this event advance to the Tour Championship in the last leg of the playoffs next week at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
LONG SHOT: Matt Fitzpatrick (+6000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7129) versus Corey Conners (7130) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +6000 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick needs a big week since he ranks 36th in the FedEx standings — so he will be playing to win this week rather than preserve a status for next week. He has two victories on the PGA Tour including the 2022 US Open — so he has beaten the best players in the world. He also has seven victories worldwide including winning twice at the European Masters on the DP Tour. The Crans-Sur-Sierre course in Switzerland is 1500 square meters above sea level which translates into about 4900 square feet. Besides those victories in 2017 and 2018, he also had a second-place result there in 2015, a third-place finish last year, and a seventh place in 2017. Fitzpatrick also finished in a tie for 12th place at the Summit Club in Las Vegas on his resume so it is not just the European altitude where he has demonstrated aptitude. Fitzpatrick enjoys the intellectual challenge of the game — so the need to crunch the numbers regarding his distance expectations with the altitude changes plays into the strengths of his game. He was out early on Monday studying this course. Fitzpatrick also tends to play well on Nicklaus-designed courses. He won at Harbour Town last season. He finished in third place at Muirfield Village in 2020 where he also finished in ninth place last year and fifth place earlier this year. He comes off a solid 18th place at the FedEx St. Jude in the opening leg of the playoffs.
Fitzpatrick is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners has been remarkably consistent this season — but his tie for 50th place at the TPC Southwind last week at the FedEx St. Jude was his worst result since a tie for 57th place at the PGA Sony Open on the Hawai’i swing of the tour way back in January. That result had him fall to 33rd in the FedEx standings which means he needs a result — so the pressure is on. As opposed to Fitzpatrick who seems energized by the challenge of the high altitude, this course does not seem like a great fit for the Canadian. Conners ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — but he is not long off-the-tee or as effective with his long irons. He ranks 83rd in Driving Distance. He also ranks 51st in Shots Gained: Approach-the-Green from 200 or more yards away from the hole. Furthermore, he is not steady with his short game which may come into play if nerves play a role in his attempt to make the top 30 to play next week. Conners ranks 107th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and he ranks 127th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Fitzpatrick (7129) versus Conners (7130) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-22-24 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Ludvig Aberg -113 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Course in Castle Rock, Colorado located south of Denver. There are two unique dynamics at play this week for a PGA Tour event. First, the professionals will have to contend with the high altitude of 6000 square feet above sea level — and given the layout, the golfers will grapple with a 400-foot drop and rise in elevation throughout the course. Second, the last time this course hosted a PGA Tour event was the International tournament in 2006. Only Adam Scott and Jason Day have played this course in a professional environment — so this is one of those rare moments where the course offers close to a true neutral site in regards to course history and experience. There have been significant renovations since that time. This is a Par 72 track consisting of a massive 8130 yards. That length needs to be contextualized with the high altitude — the general rule is that the ball travels 10% longer at 6000 square feet. In practice, the course projects to play like a track ranging from 7250 to 7450 yards. Three of the four Par 5 holes are of at least 600 yards. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Pine trees protect narrow fairways of 26 to 30 yards. Sand bunkers are scattered near the greens. Water impacts ten of the holes. The Kentucky bluegrass rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface averages 5600 square feet consisting of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua that measures perhaps past 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The top thirty golfers in the FedEx standings after this event advance to the Tour Championship in the last leg of the playoffs next week at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
BEST BET: Ludvig Aberg (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7014) versus Patrick Cantlay (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:50 AM ET.
Our Best Bet on the golfer to win the PGA BMW Championship is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. I have faced Aberg several times this year (against top-level competition) since the Swedish native lacked experience in his second year on the PGA Tour. Usually, he is learning the intricacies of the course on the fly against peers who have years of professional experience on the track. Now that this disadvantage is neutralized — and, in fact, while the other pros deal with confronting the unknown lacking past experience, this week is simply "situation normal" for Aberg for the last year or so. Despite his professional inexperience with the PGA Tour regular stops, Aberg is still having a great season. He has six top-ten finishes in 2024 including a second place in his debut at Augusta National at the Masters in April. He also finished fifth at the Memorial which is notable since that is also a Nicklaus-designed course. Aberg has been consistently listed as a top ten favorite by the books on the tour which is a testament to his elite skill talent. His power should play well on this long track. Aberg ranks third on the tour in Total Driving. He is also long and accurate with his irons — he ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Additionally, Aberg ranks 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which demonstrated his overall strength with his driver and irons. After a tie for 18th place representing Sweden in the Olympics, Aberg finished tied for 40th last week at the FedEx St. Jude in the first left of the three-week playoff run. Aberg has proven himself when dealing with the challenge of adjusting to playing in high altitude. He won the DP Tour European Masters event last year at the Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland at an altitude of 1500 meters (translating into about 4900 square feet). He currently ranks seventh in the FedEx standings — so a big week would be a big help in seizing the starting strokes advantage for the final leg of the playoffs next week at East Lake in Atlanta.
Aberg is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has experienced an inconsistent season. He comes off a solid tie for 12th place at TPC Southwind at the FedEx St. Jude Championship — but he has only finished in the top ten four times in 2024 (and only twice since mid-April). Cantlay has had success in the FedEx playoffs along with Nicklaus-designed courses. But given the uncertainty of the altitude and a course he lacks professional experience at, I am reluctant to expect his ball-striking skills to suddenly regain his past form. He ranks 133rd in Total Driving this season. He ranks 60th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is also just 95th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take Aberg (7014) versus Cantlay (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-15-24 |
Rory McIlroy v. Collin Morikawa +1.5 | | 68-68 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the third straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s and nine dog-leg holes. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. There are 75 sand bunkers that the 70 professionals who qualified for the playoffs will navigate. The Bermuda grass rough will be up to three inches high this week. The fairways consist of Zoysia grass. The Bermuda greens average only 4300 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. There will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. The average score last year was 68.636 per round.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7126) versus Rory McIlroy (7125) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 10:45 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA Fed-Ex St. Jude Championship is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, probably no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 24 in 12 straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in the last nine events of his last ten events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a 24th-place finish at the Olympics two weeks ago — but he did enjoy his best tournament in terms of the Shots-Gained: Approach the Green data all season in Paris. He has gained more than six shots versus the field in Approach the Green in his last two events. His cumulative results at the four major championships this season were second only to Scheffler. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play this year. Morikawa is a great fit for this course especially since his relative lack of power off the tee will not put him at a potential competitive disadvantage. He ranks fourth on the tour in Driving Accuracy and he ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Nine of the last 12 winners at TPC Southwind led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week. The weakness of his game is his putter — but he went into the Olympics ranked 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting since the PGA Championship. The smaller greens this week should help Morikawa as well since they mitigate the relative disadvantage he may face compared to his peers, who are better putters and can nail long putts. Overall, Morikawa ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Total and fourth in the FedEx standings. He is a great fit for TPC Southwind since the narrow fairways put a premium on accuracy off-the-tee to avoid the sand and water hazards. He finished 26th or better in all four of his previous trips at this course including a tie for fifth place and a tie for 13th place in the last two years since this event has become the first leg of the FedEx playoffs.
Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head props. Ever since McIlroy endured his epic Sunday collapse at the US Open, he has been shaky. He has admitted that he has struggled with his mental game. He is a three-time FedEx champion so he values this event — but the same was being said about the British Open where he missed the cut. He did follow that up with a tie for fifth place at the Olympics — but he was never really in contention to win the Gold Medal. McIlroy has not been as adept with his irons this year. After ranking eighth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green for the 2022-23 season, he has dropped to 28th in that metric in 2024. He did finish in a tie for third place at this tournament last year — but given his mental state, he may be pacing himself for the next three weeks to make sure he is peaking at East Lake for the Tour Championship at the end of the Month. Morikawa, on the other hand, still is hungry to register his first PGA Tour victory of the season. Take Morikawa (7126) versus McIlroy (7125) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-15-24 |
Billy Horschel -115 v. Justin Thomas | | 68-67 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the third straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s and nine dog-leg holes. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. There are 75 sand bunkers that the 70 professionals who qualified for the playoffs will navigate. The Bermuda grass rough will be up to three inches high this week. The fairways consist of Zoysia grass. The Bermuda greens average only 4300 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. There will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. The average score last year was 68.636 per round.
LONG SHOT: Billy Horschel (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Horschel (7117) versus Justin Thomas (7118) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +4500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Horschel followed up his tie for second place at the British Open last month with a tie for seventh place last week at the Wyndham Championship. The 37-year-old has finished in the top 25 in 13 of his 25 tournaments this year — and he has five top ten results during that stretch which included winning the Corales Puntacana Championship in April. The Florida native thrives when putting on Bermuda greens. He is a great fit for this course since he is accurate off-the-tee. Horschel ranks 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he ranks 37th in Driving Accuracy. Horschel is plenty familiar with TPC Southwind where he has played as a professional 12 times. He has five top-ten finishes here in his career highlighted by a fourth-place result — and he has seven top-25 results here overall. In his last nine trips here, he has six top 20 results with four top tens.
Horschel is linked with Justin Thomas in Round One head-to-head props. Thomas has played better this year after losing his form last season — but he remains too inconsistent. His last event was the British Open where he finished tied for 31st place — and that was his second-best finish in his last five tournaments. After taking a step or two back with his irons last year, he is back up to ranking 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this year — but that is still not back to his ranking of eighth in that category for the 2021-22 season. But the other areas of his game remain lagging. He is near the very bottom in the playoff field this week by ranking 142nd in Driving Accuracy which is an ominous number given all the sand and water hazards at TPC Southwind. Thomas ranks just 120th in Greens-In-Regulation as it is this season — and three of the top finishers at this tournament last year finished in the top nine or better in that category for the week. Thomas won at this course in 2020 when it was a World Golf Championship event — but he was in much better form that year. Take Horschel (7117) versus Thomas (7118) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-15-24 |
Tom Kim v. Tommy Fleetwood -118 | | 71-66 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the third straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s and nine dog-leg holes. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. There are 75 sand bunkers that the 70 professionals who qualified for the playoffs will navigate. The Bermuda grass rough will be up to three inches high this week. The fairways consist of Zoysia grass. The Bermuda greens average only 4300 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. There will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. The average score last year was 68.636 per round.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7111) versus Tom Kim (7112) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood comes off winning the Silver Medal at the Olympics two weeks ago. He may be winless on the PGA Tour — but he has seven victories on the DP Tour. He is in great form after making the cut in 17 of his 19 events in 2024. He has finished in the top 26 in nine of the last 12 tournaments worldwide. In those events, he has five top 10 results and nine top 20s. He played well at all three major championships this year with a third place at the Masters followed up with a 26th at the PGA Championship and a 16th place at the US Open. He did not make the cut at the British Open -- but he was saddled with the brutal morning-afternoon schedule for the first two days that got the worst of the bad weather that week. He ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance which will help this week with low scores expected. He also ranks eighth on the tour in Driver Accuracy which is an essential skill at TPC Southwind. Fleetwood finished in a tie for third place at this tournament last year with all four of his rounds 68 or lower. This is his fifth trip to this tournament where he also finished in fourth place in 2019.
Fleetwood is linked with Tom Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim’s profile is similar to Fleetwood's — both are accurate but not long off-the-tee. But Kim ranks 26th in Driving Accuracy. He also ranks 63rd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he ranks 86th in Greens-In-Regulation. Three of the top-five finishers last year at this tournament finished ninth or better for the week in Greens-In-Regulation. Kim has played in this event the last two years where he finished in a tie for 24th place and a tie for 13th place. Like Fleetwood, Kim missed the cut at the British Open before a solid eighth-place finish in the Olympics. Across the board, the veteran Fleetwood compares favorably to the talented Kim — but Fleetwood has the additional motivation in wanting to finally earn his first victory on the PGA Tour. Take Fleetwood (7111) versus Kim (71112) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-09-24 |
Brian Harman +0.5 v. Si Woo Kim | | 69-71 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place with the Wyndham Championship hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.467 which was a ten-year high. Seven of the last eight winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. Hurricane Debby caused Round One to be pushed back a day to Friday. The start time is pushed back at least two hours to 8:50 AM ET with more delays possible given the weather. Rain is expected on Friday before conditions should improve over the weekend in what will remain a wet and soft course.
BEST BET: Brian Harman (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7133) versus Si Woo Kim (7134) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:34 PM ET at the earliest given the potential for more delays.
Our Best Bet to win the Wyndham Championship is on Brian Harman who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Harman is not the longest driver on the tour — but he thrives on shorter, positional courses like the Sedgefield Country Club. He comes in rested having not played since settling for a tie of 60th place at the British Open — and he did gain +3.4 Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee that week which will be important this week. He played well the previous week at the Genesis Scottish Open when he finished in a tie for 21st place while gaining +6.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Harman won last year’s British Open in the fog. He can handle bad elements — and his late afternoon tee-time increases his chances of playing in better weather. Harman is enjoying a good year with ten top-25 finishes in 2024 and three top 21s or better in three of his last four events. He finished in second place at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this year. Harman ranks 147th in Driving Distance this season — but taking this element out of place elevates his chances. In his last 50 rounds, Harman is the only golfer in the field who ranks in the top 20 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. Most of the elite players are taking the week off after the Olympics and before the FedEx playoffs starting next week -- and that makes his 18th ranking in Shots-Gained: Total more impressive. Harman has played this course ten times as a professional with a third place and sixth place highlighting his course history.
Harman is linked with Si Woo Kim in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Woo Kim won this tournament in 2016 — and he has three more top-five finishes at the Sedgefield Country Club in his career. Like Harman, he fits the course since he is accurate but not long off the tee. But he is certainly not automatic — he has missed the cut in two of his eight previous trips here as a professional while only finishing in a tie for 33rd place here last year. He comes into this event with a solid yet unspectacular form. He settled for a tie for 43rd place at the British Open in his last event. He has made the cut in six straight tournaments — but he has only finished better than 26th place only once during that stretch. Woo Kim ranks only 101st in Greens-In-Regulation in 2024 — and five of the top six finishers at this tournament finished in 12th place or better in that category last year. Woo Kim also struggles with his blade — he ranks 150th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. If Woo Kim is not good with his putter this week, he will struggle once again on a course he has performed well at. Take Harman (7133) versus Woo Kim (7134) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-09-24 |
Robert Macintyre +0.5 v. Keegan Bradley | | 68-69 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place with the Wyndham Championship hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.467 which was a ten-year high. Seven of the last eight winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. Hurricane Debby caused Round One to be pushed back a day to Friday. The start time is pushed back at least two hours to 8:50 AM ET with more delays possible given the weather. Rain is expected on Friday before conditions should improve over the weekend in what will remain a wet and soft course.
LONG SHOT: Robert MacIntyre (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: MacIntyre (7137) versus Keegan Bradley (7111) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:43 PM ET at the earliest given the potential for more delays.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Robert MacIntyre who is listed at +5000 odds at DraftKings. MacIntyre has two wins this season — and what the RBC Heritage and Genesis Scottish Open have in common is that they are short positional courses like the Sedgefield Country Club. He settled for a tie for 50th place at the British Open the week after winning the Scottish Open — so he comes into this tournament rested. MacIntyre ranks 37th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 30th in Shots-Gained: Total — and those ranks take on more weight when considering that most of the top pros are taking the week off before the playoffs start next week. He has played this tournament once in 2021 when he finished tied for 65th place — so he has experience on the course.
MacIntyre is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley followed up missing the cut at the British Open with a tie for 48th place at the 3M Open. Henley has one top ten this year when he finished in second place at the Charles Schwab Challenge which is considered a second-tier event. The analytics indicate he is simply a middling player this season. He ranks 63rd in Driver Accuracy and 60th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 47th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 94th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. He also ranks 113th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has not played this tournament since 2017 when he finished in 42nd place after a 40th place the year before. Finally, Bradley ranks 158th in Round One scoring. Take MacIntyre (7137) versus Bradley in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-09-24 |
Aaron Rai +1.5 v. Christiaan Bezuidenhout | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place with the Wyndham Championship hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.467 which was a ten-year high. Seven of the last eight winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. Hurricane Debby caused Round One to be pushed back a day to Friday. The start time is pushed back at least two hours to 8:50 AM ET with more delays possible given the weather. Rain is expected on Friday before conditions should improve over the weekend in what will remain a wet and soft course.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Aaron Rai (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rai (7015) versus Christian Bezuidenholt (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET at the earliest given the potential for more delays.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Aaron Rai who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Rai settled for a tie for 75th place at the British Open in his last event — but he had finished in the top 19 or better in five straight tournaments going into that tournament. He finished no worse than a tie for ninth in his previous three tournaments before the weather got him at the British Open. That said, Rai has demonstrated he can grind things out in bad weather since he has three top-ten finishes this season in the slop where the weather conditions accommodated preferred lies by the rules. His afternoon tee-times also increase the likelihood that he will avoid some of the rain. Rai is a great fit for this course. He ranks third on the tour in Driving Accuracy. He is eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Since June, he leads the field in Good Drives Gained. Rai also ranks sixth in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and five of the top six finishers at this event last year finished in the top 12 in that metric. Rai is a well-rounded pro who ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. This is his third time playing this course as a pro — and while he has not finished better than 71st place — his second-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Country Club earlier this summer is strong evidence he can thrive at a Ross-designed short, positional course.
Rai is linked with Christian Bezuidenholt in Tournament Matchup heads head-to-head props. Bezuidenolt comes off representing South Africa in the Olympics last week — but now this is a less than advantageous trip back to the States from Paris. Bezuidenholt thrived on the greens where he gained +7.3 strokes versus the field — but it will be hard to expect similar results. He lost -3.8 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Bezuidenholt is not a great fit for the Sedgefield Country Club. He struggles with his accuracy off-the-tee — he ranks 87th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. He ranks 120th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks just 46th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 164th in Greens-In-Regulation. Bezuidenholt has made the cut in all three of his previous trips to Greensboro to play in this tournament — but he has never finished better than 37th place. Take Rai (7015) versus Bezuidenholt (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-01-24 |
Ludvig Aberg v. Jon Rahm -153 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour takes the week in lieu of the Olympics golf event at Le Golf National in Paris, about 12 miles south of the Eiffel Tour. This course is the regular host of the FedEx Open de France on the European Tour — and it was the track for the 2018 Ryder Cup. With three Par 5s, the par is set at 71 consisting of 7174 yards. With narrow fairways and plenty of punitive hazards for missing the short grass, accuracy is privileged over length off the tee. The rough consists of ryegrass of up to 2 1/2 inches in length before a second tier consisting of fescue grass of up to 3 1/2 inches. Water impacts ten of the holes and there are 51 strategically placed sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua grass. Sixty golfers are in the field with the potential ties for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals resolved by a playoff.
BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+1000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7008) versus Ludvig Aberg (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:11 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the Gold Medal in the Olympics is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings. Rahm has endured a disappointing season which included him pulling out of the US Open after suffering a foot injury on the practice — but he is in great form as the summer comes to a close. The week before the British Open, he finished in 10th place at the LIV Tour event in Spain while leading the field that week in Greens-In-Regulation. Then despite being stuck in the brutal Thursday AM/Friday PM swing at the British Open that ruined most of the scores for the professionals, Rahm battled the terrible weather and finished a very impressive tie for seventh place. He followed that up last week by winning the LIV Tour event in London. Rahm will be very motivated to win the gold this week. He had to miss the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo after testing positive for COVID. Said Rahm about what these Olympics mean to him: “It’s a dream come true. A dream that became a possibility only eight years ago for most of us, so it’s quite special. It’s one of the most impressive feats in sports to earn a gold medal. It’s something that very few people in history can do. To add to your country’s medal count is something special.” Rahm has more experience at Le Golf National than almost all the other golfers in the field. He beat Tiger Woods in their single competition in the 2018 Ryder Cup. In 2016, he finished in a tie for 10th place at the Open de France on the DP European Tour before placing in a tie for fifth place the next year. With his elite driver and skilled iron play, he should put up low numbers despite his driving distance not being a big help this week. Rahm has 11 first places worldwide in his career including eight on the PGA Tour. He won the 2021 US Open and last year’s Masters. He has been disappointed with his results at major championships since moving to the LIV Tour — but winning a Gold Medal for Spain this week would flip the narrative on his season.
Rahm is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Like everyone else, I love Aberg’s potential — but he is at a competitive disadvantage most weeks since he has not played most of these courses as a professional. Despite the short odds he has every week, he has not won an event on the PGA Tour this year. He is making his professional debut at Le Golf National. He has struggled at the major championships after his second place at the Masters in April. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the British Open. And while he was in contention at the US Open, a pair of rounds of 73 pushed him back down to a tie for 12th place. He ranks 89th on the tour in Round Four scoring which is not a good sign with most of the top golfers in the world competing this week. Finally, his skill set is not a great fit for the demands of this course. Aberg ranks 54th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy so he may be dealing with the various hazards more often than his competitors. Take Rahm (7008) versus Aberg (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-01-24 |
Ludvig Aberg v. Collin Morikawa -142 | | 1-0 |
Loss | -142 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour takes the week in lieu of the Olympics golf event at Le Golf National in Paris, about 12 miles south of the Eiffel Tour. This course is the regular host of the FedEx Open de France on the European Tour — and it was the track for the 2018 Ryder Cup. With three Par 5s, the par is set at 71 consisting of 7174 yards. With narrow fairways and plenty of punitive hazards for missing the short grass, accuracy is privileged over length off the tee. The rough consists of ryegrass of up to 2 1/2 inches in length before a second tier consisting of fescue grass of up to 3 1/2 inches. Water impacts ten of the holes and there are 51 strategically placed sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua grass. Sixty golfers are in the field with the potential ties for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals resolved by a playoff.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7010) versus Ludvig Aberg (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:11 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet to win the Gold Medal at the Olympics is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, perhaps no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 23 in 11 straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in his last nine events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a tie for 16th place in his last start at the British Open. His cumulative results at the four major championships this season are second only to Scheffler — and he is behind only Scheffler by gaining over 2.0 strokes per round versus the field in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Tee-to-Green) since the PGA Championship. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa is a great fit for this course especially since his relative lack of power off the tee will not put him at a potential competitive disadvantage. He ranks fourth on the tour in Driving Accuracy and he ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks third on the Tour in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway — so when he does miss, it is not by much so he has a better chance to avoid the larger fescue rough. The weakness of his game is his putter — but he ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting since the PGA Championship. Morikawa should have a chip on his shoulder this week after settling for a Bronze Medal in the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo after losing in a playoff. We have been on Morikawa several times this summer — and while he has to be disappointed with not winning a tournament this year, taking home the gold this week would make it all worth it. When considering that Scheffler is listed at +350 and Xander Schauffele is at +550 coming off his British Open win as he defends his 2021 Gold Medal, Morikawa at a +1000 price offers great value.
Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Like everyone else, I love Aberg’s potential — but he is at a competitive disadvantage most weeks since he has not played most of these courses as a professional. Despite the short odds he has every week, he has not won an event on the PGA Tour this year. He is making his professional debut at Le Golf National. He has struggled at the major championships after his second place at the Masters in April. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the British Open. And while he was in contention at the US Open, a pair of rounds of 73 pushed him back down to a tie for 12th place. He ranks 89th on the tour in Round Four scoring which is not a good sign with most of the top golfers in the world competing this week. Finally, his skill set is not a great fit for the demands of this course. Averb ranks 54th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy so he may be dealing with the various hazards more often than his competitors. Take Morikawa (7010) versus Aberg (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
08-01-24 |
Min Woo Lee v. Corey Conners -135 | | 76-68 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour takes the week in lieu of the Olympics golf event at Le Golf National in Paris, about 12 miles south of the Eiffel Tour. This course is the regular host of the FedEx Open de France on the European Tour — and it was the track for the 2018 Ryder Cup. With three Par 5s, the par is set at 71 consisting of 7174 yards. With narrow fairways and plenty of punitive hazards for missing the short grass, accuracy is privileged over length off the tee. The rough consists of ryegrass of up to 2 1/2 inches in length before a second tier consisting of fescue grass of up to 3 1/2 inches. Water impacts ten of the holes and there are 51 strategically placed sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua grass. Sixty golfers are in the field with the potential ties for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals resolved by a playoff.
LONG SHOT: Corey Conners (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7112) versus Min Woo Lee (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 3:33 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win a Gold Medal is on Corey Conners who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Conners was in contention going into the weekend at the British Open before struggling on that Saturday with a round of 80. He did rebound with a nice round of 68 the next day to finish in a tie for 25th place. Conners is one of the most underrated professionals on the PGA Tour. He has not missed a cut in 13 months. In his last 16 tournaments, he has 11 top-25 finishes — and he has three top tens in his last six events. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. His game is a great fit for the demands of this course. Conners ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh on Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has two victories on the PGA Tour — and he would love to bring home the gold for Canada.
Conners is linked with Min Woo Lee in Round One head-to-head props. Woo Lee followed up a tie for second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a tie for third place at the Scottish Open. But then he missed the cut at the British Open. Woo Lee is like the mirror opposite of Conners — and they tend to perform well at distinctly different courses. Woo Lee’s strength is his power with his driver — he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance. But he is only 98th in Driving Accuracy. Then Woo Lee is 142nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is just 140th in Greens-In-Regulation. Woo Lee represents Australia this week — but he is not likely to be amongst the leaders on a course that he has not played as a professional. Take Conners (7112) versus Woo Lee (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-25-24 |
JT Poston v. Erik Van Rooyen +0.5 | | 73-75 |
Loss | -123 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States for just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas, The 156 profs will also contend with 72 bunkers. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the sixth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. The average winning score in the first five years here has been 19 under par. The tournament affectionately describes the tournament as “birdies and train wrecks.”
LONG SHOT: Erik van Rooyen (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: van Rooyen (7136) versus J.T. Poston (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:43 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on van Rooyen who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Van Rooyen loves playing at birdie-fest tournaments. In his last six that could be classified in that manner, he has five top-eight finishes including winning the World Wide Technology Championship last November. The South African ranks 13th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage and 33rd in Bogey Avoidance — so he can put up a low score this week. Van Rooyen is a great ball-striker. He ranks 21st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he has gained +2.5 SG: Off-the-Teen per round since April. He also ranks 45th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He last played at the Scottish Open two weeks ago when he finished tied for 39th place — but he did gain +5.5 strokes versus the field in his approach. He gained +7.5 strokes versus the field that week in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green). His biggest weakness is with his chipping as he ranks 148th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — but that is a category that measures less valuable this week given the large greens and the relatively easy rough (avoiding the water is the bigger hazard). This will be the fourth time that the University of Minnesota graduate will be playing this event that is about 20 miles away from campus. He has extra incentive this year to make a run since it is the first time he is playing this event since his college teammate Jon Trasamar died from cancer last November.
Van Rooyen is linked with J.T. Poston in Round One head-to-head props. Poston returns to the US since missing the cut last week at the British Open. Poston is accurate off-the-tee and good with his putter — and he finished tied for second place at this tournament last year. We were on Poston a few times last summer when he demonstrated staggering improvement with his iron play. But his inconsistency with irons has returned — he ranks just 122nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season. He also ranks 107th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. These difficulties contribute to him ranking 94th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance. Take van Rooyen (7136) versus Poston (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-25-24 |
Akshay Bhatia -125 v. Sahith Theegala | | 0-1 |
Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States for just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas, The 156 profs will also contend with 72 bunkers. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the sixth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. The average winning score in the first five years here has been 19 under par. The tournament affectionately describes the tournament as “birdies and train wrecks.”
BEST BET: Akshay Bhatia (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Bhatia (7005) versus Sahith Theegal (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:18 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Akshay Bhatia who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Bhatia was on a great run before missing the cut last week at the British Open. He finished tied for 22nd place at the Memorial before a tie for 16th place at the US Open. He then finished tied for fifth place at the Travelers Championship before a tie for second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. That was a frustrating finish for Bhatia as three-putted the 18th hole to losing that event by one stroke. He did win the Valero Texas Open in April — so he can close the deal. There is no shame in missing the cut last week in Scotland, especially with the bad weather. Getting home earlier than planned tends to help this well as well — in the last three years, 13 of 17 top-five finishers at the PGA 3M Open did not play or missed the cut the previous week at the British Open. Bhatia proved he can contend at birdie fests like this when he finished in second place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage. The weakness in his game is Shots-Gained: Around the Green — but chipping is de-emphasized this week given the large greens and all the water hazards that represent the course difficulty rather than difficult rough around the green. Bhatia is accurate off the tee — he ranks 29th on the tour in Driver Accuracy. The strength of his game is his irons. He ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 17th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is also a great putter — he ranks 27th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is the only pro in the field who ranks top 15 over his last 50 rounds in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green) and Shots-Gained: Putting. Putting is important for success at this event. Overall, Bhatia ranks an impressive tenth on the PGA Tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Total. This is his professional debut at TPC Twin Cities — and while that is usually a red flag for me, with most of the top professionals taking the week off to prepare for either the Olympics or the FedEx Playoffs next month, I feel better about a debutante, especially on an easier course.
Bhatia is linked with Sahith Theegala in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Theegala also missed the cut last week at the British Open — but his performance was a bit more concerning since he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and Shots-Gained: Putting, the four major SG categories. Theegala’s skillset does not appear to be a good fit for TPC Twin Cities either. Theegala is not accurate off-the-tee — he ranks 101st in Driver Accuracy. He is at high risk of finding the water. He also ranks 84th in Bogey Avoidance. The proof is in the pudding: Theegala has missed the cut in all three of his previous trips to Blaine to compete in the 3M Open. Take Bhatia (7005) versus Theegala (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-25-24 |
Keith Mitchell -125 v. Taylor Pendrith | | 0-1 |
Loss | -125 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States for just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas, The 156 profs will also contend with 72 bunkers. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the sixth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. The average winning score in the first five years here has been 19 under par. The tournament affectionately describes the tournament as “birdies and train wrecks.”
TOP OVERLAY BET: Keith Mitchell (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Mitchell (7015) versus Taylor Pendrith (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:07 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Mitchell is having a down season when considering the expectations at the beginning of the year — but he still has resisted three top tens. Winning this tournament would change the narrative. He did miss the cut last week at the PGA Barracuda Championship — but he was across the pond the previous week competing at the Scottish Open. Mitchell’s game is a great fit for this course. He leads the field this week in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green) over his last 36 rounds. He ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is second in the field in shots gained on courses with heavy water danger and seventh in the field in shots-gained on courses with easy greens. He is poised to put up a low number since he ranks second on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage — and he ranks 25th in Bogey Avoidance. His weakness is his putter — but he does perform best with his blade on Bentgrass putting surfaces. He has finished in fifth place at this tournament in two straight seasons — he has averaged a 67.50 score per round in those eight rounds. Even better, he has gained more than 12 strokes versus the field with his putter in the last two 3M Opens here at the TPC Twin Cities.
Mitchell is linked with Taylor Pendrith in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Pendrith is one of the best putters on the tour who comes off a tie for fifth place last week at the PGA Barracuda Championship. But Pendrith lacks the ball-striking skills to thrive at this tournament. He ranks 130th in Driver Accuracy — so he may get in trouble with the water off-the-tee. Pendrith ranks 93rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 106th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He also ranks just 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage and 57th in Bogey Avoidance — so putting up a low number will likely be a struggle. In his first trip to the TPC Twin Cities last year, he missed the cut. Pendrith ranks 29th in the FedEx standings — so he is not playing with urgency this week since he is likely to make the playoffs next month. Take Mitchell (7015) versus Pendrith (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-18-24 |
Cameron Smith v. Shane Lowry +0.5 | | 80-66 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.
LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7196) versus Cameron Smith (7195) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:59 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. We have been on Lowry often this season — and it would be the regret I would never forget if I did invest in him at these odds when playing in the potentially bad weather in Scotland. The 2019 British Open winner is enjoying a good season. He last played three weeks ago when he finished tied for ninth place at the Travelers Championship. He has four top tens in 2024 including a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a first place in the partners event with Rory McIlroy at the Zurich Classic. He finished tied for sixth place at the PGA Championship and tied for 19th at the US Open. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter but the smaller greens make that less of a factor this week. Lowry is one of the best ball strikers in the world. He ranks 18th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. When Henrik Stenson won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2016, he finished second in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with his 20 under par score. Phil Mickelson finished in second place and was 15th for the week in both those categories. The third-place finisher trailed Mickelson by 11 strokes. Lowry checks many of the boxes of past Open champions (on top of being a past winner). The last seven Open championship winners had won previously in the calendar year. Eight of the last 12 winners were 32 years old or older. This will be Hatton’s 12th British Open — and five of the last six winners had played an Open Championship at least four previous times. Fifteen of the last 18 Open champions finished in ninth place or better in a previous British Open. Lowry has a tie for 12th place and a tie for 21st place at the British Open since his victory in 2019. He also has experience at Royal Troon having played the British Open here in 2016 — and while he missed the cut that year, playing those two rounds in the tournament environment can only help him this week.
Lowry is linked with Cameron Smith for Round One head-to-head props. Smith won the 2022 British Open at the Old Course at St. Andrew’s (and we were on him that week) — but that course plays the opposite of Royal Troon this week. Smith is one of the best putters in the world — but the lag putting that he thrives with is de-emphasized this week with the small greens. Smith is not long or accurate off-the-tee either. He lacks the sample size to qualify for the PGA analytics rankings this year since he is playing the LIV Tour. For some comparison's sake, in his last year on the PGA Tour in 2021-22, he ranked 101st in Driving Distance and 135th in Driving Accuracy. He also ranked 136th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His stats on the LIV Tour suggest he has only taken a step back in those metrics since then. And while that victory in 2020 at St. Andrews was great, his second-best finish at an Open Championship was tied for 20th place in his six previous British Opens. Take Lowry (7196) versus Smith (7195) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-18-24 |
Ludvig Aberg v. Collin Morikawa -129 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7012) versus Ludvig Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:47 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, perhaps no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 23 in ten straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in his last eight events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a tie for 14th place at the US Open. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa is a great fit for this course. He ranks second on the tour in Driving Accuracy — and while he is not one of the biggest drivers on the tour, he still ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The weakness of his game is his putter — but the smaller greens neutralize the edge the elite putters would have this week. If Morikawa misses the green, he should still be in fine shape since he ranks 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. That said, Morikawa has been playing better with his blade. He finished 11th and 15th in the field at the US Open and the Memorial in Shots-Gained: Putting. He gained strokes versus the field with his blade in six of seven tournaments going into the Travelers Championship two events ago (I did not check how he fared with his putter in his last two events). Morikawa checks plenty of the boxes of many past British Open champions. Four of the last six winners of the Open Championship finished tied for 11th place or better at one of the three previous major championships. Nine of the last 13 past winners played the previous week at the Scottish Open. Morikawa won the British Open in 2021 when it was hosted at Royal St. George — and 15 of the last 18 winners of the Open Championship had previously finished tied for ninth place or better at this tournament.
Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The 24-year-old Swede is a great talent — and I suspect I will be jumping on his bandwagon next season. But this is his first British Open in his young career — and Morikawa was one of the exceptions to win the Open Championship before the age of 32-years-old. Five of the last six winners of the British Open had played at least four previous Open Championships. Aberg competed last week at the Scottish Open — and after leading the way after three rounds, he stumbled on Sunday with a round of 73 which was three over par. Aberg ranks 57th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy — so he might get into trouble with all the dangers off-the-tee. He also ranks 88th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — so if he misses the small greens, he may be vulnerable to more bogeys like he had on Sunday. Take Morikawa (7012) versus Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-18-24 |
Tom Kim v. Tyrrell Hatton -128 | | 76-73 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Tyrrell Hatton (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hatton (7150) versus Tom Kim (7122) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:47 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. I spent a significant amount of time deliberating between Tommy Fleetwood and Hatton who have similar profiles — but with Fleetwood priced at +2200 odds at DraftKings, let’s follow the primary point of the Top Overlay Bet which is taking advantage of value. Hatton at +3000 is the better Overlay. The 32-year-old is in good form this summer. On the LIV Tour, he followed up by winning the event in Nashville by three strokes against Jon Rahm and US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes then finishing in third place last week at Valderrama in Spain. He finished for a tie for ninth place at the Masters and was in the hunt after three days at the US Open before shooting 77 on Sunday of that event. Hatton does not have enough rounds on the PGA Tour to qualify for the analytics rankings in the Shots-Gained, et al categories. When he was on the PGA Tour last season, he ranked 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Scrambling. While he failed to make the cut in his first five majors in his career, he has since made 11 straight cuts at major championships with four top 15s. Hatton checks some interesting boxes regarding the qualities of past Open champions. The last seven winners of the British Open won a previous tournament in the calendar year. Eight of the last 12 winners were 32 years old or older. This will be Hatton’s 12th British Open — and five of the last six winners had played an Open Championship at least four previous times. Hatton has two top-sixes at the British Open along with a tie for 11th place and a tie for 20th place — and 15 of the last 18 Open champions finished in ninth place or better in a previous British Open. Finally, Hatton has experience at Royal Troon having played the British Open here in 2016 when he finished tied for fifth place in his best result at a major championship. Eight years later, he will play with confidence this week. Hatton is linked with Tom Kim for Round One head-to-head props. I like Kim — and we were on him last week when he finished tied for 15th place at the Scottish Open. I’m not sure Kim’s game sets up well for this course. He ranks 57th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks 73rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. When Henrik Stenson won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2016, he finished second in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with his 20 under par score. Phil Mickelson finished in second place and was 15th for the week in both those categories. The third-place finisher trailed Mickelson by 11 strokes. Kim also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 119th in Bogey Avoidance — so he may get into trouble if he misses the small greens this week. Kim finished in second place at the British Open last year — but that may place some pressure regarding expectations on him for this event, especially in Round One. As mentioned above, British Open veterans tend to perform better. Kim has not won an event on the PGA Tour either — so he does not check the box of the last seven Open championship winners having won previously in the calendar year. Take Hattan (7150) versus Kim (7149) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
07-11-24 |
Viktor Hovland v. Tommy Fleetwood -109 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The undulated greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and while benign weather was expected earlier in the week, the wind is picking up and may play a role again at this tournament. rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth straight year with this tournament. The average score at this tournament last year was 69.68 per round.
BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7012) versus Viktor Hovland (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 3:28 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood opened the week at +2000 odds — so we are getting even more value on Wednesday. Fleetwood may be winless on the PGA Tour — but he has seven victories on the DP Tour including a victory in Scotland. He is very comfortable with links courses — and he can handle inclement weather. He is in great form after making the cut in 15 of his 16 events in 2024. He has finished in the top 26 in eight of the last nine tournaments worldwide. In those events, he has four top 10 results and nine top 20s. He has played well at all three major championships this year with a third place at the Masters followed up with a 26th at the PGA Championship and a 16th place at the US Open last month. Fleetwood last played at the Travelers Championship three weeks ago when he finished in 15th place. He finished the event ranked second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance which will help this week with low scores expected. Fleetwood finished in fourth place at this tournament two years ago before a tie for sixth place in his second trip here last year.
Fleetwood is linked with Viktor Hovland in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hovland has been wildly inconsistent this year after winning the Tour Championship in Atlanta last August. After changing coaches, he finished tied for 62nd place at THE PLAYERS Championship before missing the cut at the Masters. He reunited with his long-time coach Joe Mayo soon after — and he seemed to find his swing again with a tie for third place at the PGA Championship. But he missed the cut at the US Open last month before a tie for 20th place at the Travelers Championship. It’s hard to know what to expect — but I suspect the British Open next week is his higher priority. I don’t think he is a good fit for this course because his chipping game continues to lag. Since last year’s British Open, Hovland has lost strokes to the field Around the Green in 11 of his 14 tournaments — and he has lost strokes to the field in that category in ten of his last 11 events. In his last ten tournaments, he has averaged losing -2.0 strokes to the field in Around the Green. While it is fair to say that Hovland manages his chipping better when dealing with longer rough, he struggles in particular with his touch off the green when dealing with shorter grass. Hovland has played this tournament twice — he missed the cut in his first trip before a tie for 25th place last year. Take Fleetwood (7012) versus Hovland (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-11-24 |
Tom Kim +0.5 v. Viktor Hovland | | 69-67 |
Loss | -119 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The undulated greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and while benign weather was expected earlier in the week, the wind is picking up and may play a role again at this tournament. rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth straight year with this tournament. The average score at this tournament last year was 69.68 per round.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Tom Kim (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7121) versus Kevin Yu (7122) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 3:17 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tom Kim who is listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings. Kim loves links courses — and he is in great form. Let’s give him a pass for missing the cut in his most recent event at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit two weeks ago. That was a week after his dramatic playoff loss to Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers Championship (and the last signature event of the year). Kim also finished tied for fourth place at the RBC Canadian Open last month. Kim has finished tied for 26th place or better in five of his last seven tournaments. His breakthrough on the PGA Tour took place on this European swing last summer when he finished tied for second place at the British Open. He finished tied for sixth place at this tournament last July after a third-place result here in his first trip to the Renaissance Club in 2022.
Kim is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. Hovland has been wildly inconsistent this year after winning the Tour Championship in Atlanta last August. After changing coaches, he finished tied for 62nd place at THE PLAYERS Championship before missing the cut at the Masters. He reunited with his long-time coach Joe Mayo soon after — and he seemed to find his swing again with a tie for third place at the PGA Championship. But he missed the cut at the US Open last month before a tie for 20th place at the Travelers Championship. It’s hard to know what to expect — but I suspect the British Open next week is his higher priority. I don’t think he is a good fit for this course because his chipping game continues to lag. Since last year’s British Open, Hovland has lost strokes to the field Around the Green in 11 of his 14 tournaments — and he has lost strokes to the field in that category in ten of his last 11 events. In his last ten tournaments, he has averaged losing -2.0 strokes to the field in Around the Green. While it is fair to say that Hovland manages his chipping better when dealing with longer rough, he struggles in particular with his touch off the green when dealing with shorter grass. Hovland has played this tournament twice — he missed the cut in his first trip before a tie for 25th place last year. He also ranks just 88th on the tour in Round One scoring. Take Kim (7121) versus Hovland (7122) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-11-24 |
Corey Conners v. Aaron Rai -118 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The undulated greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and while benign weather was expected earlier in the week, the wind is picking up and may play a role again at this tournament. rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth straight year with this tournament. The average score at this tournament last year was 69.68 per round.
LONG SHOT: Aaron Rai (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rai (7022) versus Corey Conners (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:22 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Aaron Rai who is listed +4000 odds at DraftKings. Rai is in great form right now with eight straight-made cuts. He has four straight top 20 finishes and his last two events have been in the top seven after following up a tie for second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a tie for seventh place at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago. He has three top-17 finishes in his last seven events. Rai has gained strokes versus the field in eight straight tournaments. In his last five events, he has gained +6.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But perhaps the biggest improvement in his game has been with his putter. Under the guidance of his new putting instructor John Graham, Rai has gained +2.9, +4.8, and then +8.9 strokes versus the field with his putter. Rai is already one of the best ball strikers on the tour. He ranks tenth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks seventh in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Total. Rai won this tournament at the Renaissance Club in 2020.
Rai is linked with Corey Conners in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Conners is in good form — he followed up a tie for ninth at the US Open with a tie for 27th place three weeks ago at the Travelers Championship. That finish was actually his worst result in his last seven tournaments. My concern with the elite ball striker is his short game which will probably get in the way of putting up a very low number. Conners ranks 102nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 138th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also ranks 72nd in Bogey Avoidance. He has placed at this course twice — he settled for 61st place in 2022 before improving to 19th place last year. Take Rai (7022) versus Conners (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-04-24 |
Min-Kyu Kim v. Maverick McNealy -140 | | 68-67 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick rough. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Last year, 64% of the drives off the tee reached the fairway and the pros reached the Greens In Regulation 72% of the time. Regarding approach shots, 45% of these shots came from inside 150 yards while 25% were from beyond 200 yards. The average winning score in the last three years here has been 20.3 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Four of the last five winners had a score of 21 or more under par.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Maverick McNealy (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McNealy (7144) versus Kevin Yu (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:11 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Maverick McNealy who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. We were on McNealy last week but he started slow and settled with a tie for 44th place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Despite the subpar week, I am not jumping off the bandwagon in a non-signature event like this. He still has three top-nine finishes in his last 11 PGA events. His previous tournament resulted in a tie for seventh place at the RBC Canadian Open at the beginning of the month. He gained +2.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and gained another +4.1 strokes with his putter that week. He has made the cut in 13 straight PGA tournaments including a tie for ninth place at THE PLAYERS Championship and a tie for 23rd place at the PGA Championship. He also finished in a tie for sixth place at the signature event WM Phoenix Open. He has gained at least +1.6 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in four of his last six tournaments. In his last five PGA events before last week, he had gained almost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 19th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks eighth in the field this week in that category. It will take a low score to win this week. McNealy ranks seventh in the field in Par 4 Scoring. He also ranks 14th on the tour in fifth in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage — and he ranks second in the field in that category this week. He also ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks 12th in Rounds in the 60s — and in the last five tournaments at TPC Deere Run, the top ten finishers scored in the 60s in 88% of their rounds. McNealy has a strong track record at the John Deere Classic. He finished tied for 18th in his second trip in 2021 before backing that up with a tie for 8th place two summers ago. He has averaged 67.5 strokes per round in those previous two tournaments.
McNealy is linked with Kevin Yu for Round One head-to-head props. Yu has made the weekend in four straight tournaments after his tie for 31st place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But he has still missed the cut in six of his last 13 PGA events. He finished tied for sixth place in his debut here last year — but that seems to be a result of a surprising effort with his short game. Yu ranks 161st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. He also ranks 162nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Struggling with the short game is an impediment for low scoring — and Yu ranks 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage. Take McNealy (7144) versus Yu (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-04-24 |
Davis Thompson v. Denny McCarthy +0.5 | | 63-64 |
Loss | -129 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick rough. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Last year, 64% of the drives off the tee reached the fairway and the pros reached the Greens In Regulation 72% of the time. Regarding approach shots, 45% of these shots came from inside 150 yards while 25% were from beyond 200 yards. The average winning score in the last three years here has been 20.3 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Four of the last five winners had a score of 21 or more under par.
BEST BET: Denny McCarthy (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McCarthy (7130) versus Davis Thompson (7129) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:27 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the John Deere Classic is on Denny McCarthy who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. McCarthy is one of the best putters in the world — and if he gets hot with his putter, he can put a very low number in a birdie fest. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has a good overall game as well. McCarthy ranks 32nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total with most of the professionals ranked ahead of him not competing at this tournament. He ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks 39th this season in Rounds in the 60s. In the last five events here at TPC Deere Run, the top ten finishers saw 88% of their rounds in the 60s. McCarthy has been consistent this season by making the cut in 15 of his 17 events after finishing tied for 31st at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago in the last signature event of 2024. He competes at the John Deere Classic for the sixth time after two straight tied for sixth place finishes the last two years where he finished 16 under par both times. Eight of his last ten rounds at this course was in the 60s. Finally, he will be very motivated to win his first PGA Tour event. He has come close after a second-place finish at the difficult Muirfield Village course for the Memorial last year before his loss in a playoff at the Valero Texas Open earlier this year.
McCarthy is linked with Davis Thompson in Round One head-to-head props. Thompson comes into this one on a heater after following up his tie for ninth place at the US Open with a tie for second place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. But Thompson continues to play an arduous schedule in his second year on the PGA Tour. This will be his tenth tournament in the last 12 weeks. McCarthy took last week off — this will be his seventh event in the last ten weeks after taking a three-week break from mid-April through mid-May. I don’t love the course fit this week either for the 25-year-old. He ranks just 84th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so his blade may hold him back from putting up a low number. He also is not great with his wedges. Remember that 45% of the approach shots last year were from 150 yards or less — and Thompson ranks 102nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 50 to 125 yards. Precision with long irons also comes into play with 25% of approach shots last year coming from 200 yards are farther — but he ranks just 151st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 yards or farther. Thompson played in this tournament last year but finished only 31st. Take McCarthy (7130) versus Thompson in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
07-04-24 |
Ryo Hisatsune v. Seamus Power -109 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick rough. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Last year, 64% of the drives off the tee reached the fairway and the pros reached the Greens In Regulation 72% of the time. Regarding approach shots, 45% of these shots came from inside 150 yards while 25% were from beyond 200 yards. The average winning score in the last three years here has been 20.3 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Four of the last five winners had a score of 21 or more under par.
LONG SHOT: Seamus Power (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Power (7024) versus Ryo Hisatsune (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:05 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Seamus Power who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Power comes off a tie for 20th place at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago where he gained strokes versus the field in all four major metrics of Shots Gained: Off the Tee, Approach the Green, Around the Green, and Putting. Power thrives on positional courses like this. His victories at the Barbosal Championship and the Butterfield Bermuda Championship were on similar tracks where he could utilize his strong wedge play. As mentioned above, 45% of the approach shots at this event last year came from within 150 yards — and Power ranks 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 125 to 150 yards. He has also gained shots versus the field with his putter in three straight tournaments. Power has made all five cuts in his five trips to TPC Deere Run since 2017 with his average score being 67.95. He has four top 25s including a tie for 13th place and a tied for eighth place in 2021.
Power is linked with Rio Hisatsune for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hisatsune comes off a tie for 31st place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit — but he has still missed the cut in three of his last seven tournaments. Hisatsune is effective with his short irons and wedges — but that may not be enough to overcome the other weaknesses in his game. He ranks 100th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee — and most of his competitors are going to be on the fairway for their second shot. He also ranks 93rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and that is not a good sign in a birdie best. Finally, Hisatsune has never played this course as a professional which gives a big edge to Power in the head-to-head. Take Power (7024) versus Hisatsune (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-27-24 |
Stephan Jaeger -130 v. Keith Mitchell | | 0-1 |
Loss | -130 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the sixth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average score last year was 69.919. The average winning score in the five previous editions in Detroit was -23.2 under par — and four of those five winners posted a winning score of at least -23 under par.
BEST BET: Stephan Jaeger (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Jaeger (7009) versus Keith Mitchell (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:43 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA Rocket Mortgage Classic is on Stephan Jaeger who is listed at +2500 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Jaeger won the PGA Houston Open at the end of March -- edging out Scottie Scheffler — at Memorial Park which is a golf course that profiles similar to the Detroit Golf Club. Both tracks reward big hitters off the tee. Since that victory, Jaeger has four top 2 finishes including a tie or 21st place at the US Open two weeks ago. He finished in a tie for 31st place last week at the Travelers Championship. With this not being a signature event, Jaeger’s profile shapes up quite well for this course. He ranks 16th in Total Driving and 17th in Driving Distance — and some of the recent winners at this tournament in Detroit like Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, and Cam Davis are all big hitters. He also ranks 26th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and the last four winners of this event all finished in the top four that week in that category. Jaeger also ranks 24th on the tour in 2024 in Par 5 Scoring — and the last five winners here finished -10 under or better on the Par 5 holes with the last three winners all scoring -12 under or better on the Par 5s. Jaeger can thrive at birdie fests as he ranks 24th on the tour in Birdie or Better Percentage. Jaeger also has a great track record at the Detroit Golf Club for this event after following up his fifth-place finish in 2022 with a ninth-place result last year.
Jaeger is linked with Keith Mitchell in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Mitchell has not played on the PGA Tour since finishing tied for 10th place at the RBC Canadian Open. Mitchell missed the cut at the PGA Championship — and he did not qualify for the US Open earlier this month. He did not qualify for the two other signature events this month nor the Masters last month. He settled for a 73rd-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. While Mitchell is one of the better ball strikers on the tour, his subpar short game keeps him relegated to the second tier when it comes to the professionals on the tour. He ranks 118th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and that is not an encouraging number when considering the 87 sand bunkers on this course. Even worse, he ranks 144th in Shots-Gained: Putting which is far from ideal when it will probably take -23 under par or better to win this tournament. The last five winners at this event all finished in 22nd place or better in Shots-Gained: Putting. Mitchell has played this tournament in Detroit once back in 2019 — but he missed the cut. Take Jaeger (7009) versus Mitchell (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-27-24 |
Ryan Fox +1.5 v. Rickie Fowler | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the sixth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average score last year was 69.919. The average winning score in the five previous editions in Detroit was -23.2 under par — and four of those five winners posted a winning score of at least -23 under par.
LONG SHOT: Ryan Fox (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fox (7015) versus Rickie Fowler (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:32 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Ryan Fox who is listed at +5000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Fox is a veteran on the global tour with three victories in international events since 2022. The New Zealander settled for a tie for 56th place at the US Open two weeks ago — but he still has three top-ten finishes on the PGA Tour in his last seven events including a tie for fourth place at Myrtle Beach and a tie for seventh place at the RBC Canadian Open in the last six weeks. He is a good fit for this course since he ranks 17th on the tour in Driving Distance. He also leads the field in Proximity from 125 to 175 yards. Additionally, Fox ranks 27th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the last five winners all finished in the top 22 for the week with their putting.
Fox is linked with Rickie Fowler in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fowler will get some attention this week as the defending champion — but he is not in good form right now. The responsibilities during the week when defending a championship certainly do not help the focus for the tournament challenge. Fowler finished tied for 20th place last week at the Travelers Championship — but he missed the cut at the US Open and the Memorial in his two starts prior to that. Fowler is struggling this season — he ranks 152nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The last four winners here have finished in the top four in that metric for the week in that metric. He ranks 154th in Birdies or Better Percentage which is not a good sign for his ability to put up a bigger number versus his competition. He also ranks 159th in Bogey Avoidance — and the last five winners at this event had no more than seven bogeys for the week. Fowler has not finished in the top 15 in any tournament since winning this event last year. And it’s not like his course history is amazing in Detroit — he has finished 32rd or worst in three of his five visits here. Take Fox (7015) versus Fowler (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-27-24 |
Maverick McNealy -125 v. Will Zalatoris | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the sixth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average score last year was 69.919. The average winning score in the five previous editions in Detroit was -23.2 under par — and four of those five winners posted a winning score of at least -23 under par.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Maverick McNealy (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McNealy (7007) versus Will Zalatoris (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:21 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Maverick McNealy who is listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. McNealy returns to action after finishing in a tie for seventh place at the RBC Canadian Open at the beginning of the month. He gained +2.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and gained another +4.1 strokes with his putter that week. The last five winners at this event in Detroit finished in 22nd or better place for the week in putting. Many of the top favorites come into this week on a marathon schedule — Tom Kim has played nine straight weeks in a row on the PGA Tour while Akshay Bhatia has played eight weeks in a row. McNealy being rested should help him this week — but he has demonstrated he can compete with the best players on the PGA Tour. He has made the cut in 12 straight PGA tournaments including a tie for ninth place at THE PLAYERS Championship and a tie for 23rd place at the PGA Championship. He also finished in a tie for sixth place at the signature event WM Phoenix Open. In his last five PGA events, he has gained almost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 19th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and the last four winners here in Detroit finished in the top four for the week in that category. It will take a low score to win this week. McNealy ranks seventh in the field in Par 4 Scoring. He also ranks 21st on the tour in fifth in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage. He ranks 25th in Par 5 Scoring — and the last five winners here finished -10 under or better on the Par 5 holes with the last three winners all scoring -12 under or better on the Par 5s. He also ranks 13th in Bogey Avoidance — and the last five winners at this event in Detroit did not have more than seven bogeys on their scorecard for the week. McNealy has a strong track record at the Detroit Golf Club with an eighth place and a 21st place in three trips. He will be motivated for more than just the money since the 28-year-old has yet to win on the PGA Tour.
McNealy is linked with Will Zalatoris for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Zalatoris looks to be playing this event in the attempt to find his form after conceding he may have come back too soon from his back surgery last year. He finished in a tie for 43rd place at the PGA Championship before a tie for 41st place at the Memorial. He then missed the cut at the US Open before his 42nd place at the Travelers Championship last week. He started strong with an opening round of 64 last week but he ended the week by losing -1.9 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His irons are usually the strongest part of his game. His putter is not his strong suit — and he lost -3.2 strokes versus the field in that metric last week. That is not a good sign this week since the last five winners at this event finished in the top 22 for the week in Shots-Gained: Putting. Zalatoris ranks only 62nd this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — he led the tour in this metric in 2022 before his back injury. His record at this course is mixed. After a 77th-place finish in 2021, he improved to 20th place in 2022 before missing last year’s event with his injury. Zalatoris has a great record at the major championships, albeit mostly before his injury. He plays better at tough courses at tournaments where par is a good score. At birdie fests, not so much — he ranks 147th on the tour this year in Birdie or Better Percentage. He also ranks 97th in Bogey Avoidance — and the last five winners at this event in Detroit did not have more than seven bogeys for the week. Take McNealy (7007) versus Zalatoris (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-20-24 |
Collin Morikawa +1.5 v. Xander Schauffele | | 66-65 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from North Carolina up north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2024 season with 71 professionals competing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6835 yards, the course is one of the shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The lone adjustment from last year was the reduction of 17 yards from the Par Four ninth hole. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The fairways average 38 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are the sixth smallest greens on the tour, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected after last year saw an average score of 68.4000. The winning score has been at least 17 under par in five of the last six tournaments.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7145) versus Xander Schauffele (7146) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:30 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the Travelers Championship is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. We were on Morikawa last week at the US Open — and he started poorly on Day One with two double bogeys on Par Three holes. He still finished tied for 14th place for the week. He is still in great form — he has gained strokes versus the field in all the major categories in three straight weeks. What is most encouraging about Morikawa has been his putting which is usually the weakest part of his game. He has finished 11th and 15th in the field at the US Open and the Memorial in the last two weeks in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he has gained strokes versus the field with his blade in six of his last seven tournaments. He ranks fourth on the tour in Putting: Birdies or Better which suggests he can thrive at a tournament that will require a low score to win. Three of his six PGA Tour wins have been on courses with a Bentgrass-Poa Annua blend like the greens this week. At the Memorial two weeks ago, he got bested by Scottie Scheffler by one stroke to settle for second place at the Memorial. Morikawa has been playing at an elite level since he finished in a tie for third place at the Masters in early April. He finished in a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship before a solo fourth place at the Charles Schwab Challenge three weeks ago before last week’s second-place finish. That makes it seven straight top-16 finishes in his last seven-stroke play tournaments beginning in Augusta. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa ranks 15th on the tour on Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green even after a slow start to the season. The last five winners at this tournament had a top-five finish in the first three months of the year — and Morikawa checks that box with his tie for fifth place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. Three of the last four winners at this event when it was the next week after the US Open finished in the top 14 at that major championship — so Morikawa checks that box as well. He missed the cut here last year — but he did score a seven-under 63 in Round Two with zero bogeys so he is close to putting up a low number here.
Morikawa is linked with Xander Schauffele in Round One head-to-head props. Schauffele broke through by finally winning his first major championship last month at the PGA Championship. He has been good — but not quite as sharp since with a tie for seventh place at the Memorial before a tie for eighth place at the US Open last week. I still worry about the hangover effect — especially when playing his third straight tournament in three weeks. He did finish in a tie for fifth place at the Valspar Championship when playing in the third straight week — but he also settled for a tie for 54th place at Pebble Beach and a tie for 23rd place at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans when playing for the third week in a row this year. Morikawa’s lone third week in a row tournament was at the Charles Schwab last month when he finished in fourth place. Schauffele ranks 34th on the tour in Round One Scoring — as opposed to Morikawa who ranks second in Round One Scoring in 2024. Take Morikawa (7145) versus Schauffele (7146) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-20-24 |
Ludvig Aberg -126 v. Viktor Hovland | | 67-68 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from North Carolina up north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2024 season with 71 professionals competing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6835 yards, the course is one of the shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The lone adjustment from last year was the reduction of 17 yards from the Par Four ninth hole. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The fairways average 38 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are the sixth smallest greens on the tour, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected after last year saw an average score of 68.4000. The winning score has been at least 17 under par in five of the last six tournaments.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7147) versus Viktor Hovland (7148) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:30 PM ET.
Aberg is a great young talent who I have shied away from since he is at a disadvantage in his young career with this being his first full year on the PGA Tour. But he knows TPC River Highlands after finishing tied for 24th place here last year. Despite not having professional experience at Pinehurst last week, he led the field in scoring going into Round Three of the US Open before struggling with the challenging drop-off on those greens (with Mike Tirico often referring to “effective putting surface size” in his broadcast) to settle for a tie for 12th place. Aberg has gained at least eight strokes versus the field on average in five straight tournaments despite his consistent disadvantage in course experience. Aberg finished tied for fifth at the Memorial two weeks ago — and he settled for second place at the Masters and eighth at the PLAYERS Championship since March. Aberg also finished in second place at Pebble Beach in February — and the last five winners at this tournament all finished in the top five at a PGA event before April of that year. Three of the last four winners here finished in the top 14 or better when the US Open was the previous week. Nine of the last ten winners here finished in the top 31 at this tournament previously. Aberg ranks 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and last year the top six finishers all ended the week in the top 22 in that metric. All the top favorites are playing for the third straight week after the Memorial and the US Open — but Aberg’s youth may give him an edge this week. The 24-year-old also finished 10th at the RBC Heritage earlier this spring when playing for the third straight week.
Aberg is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. We faded Hovland last week in a head-to-prop with Bryson DeChambeau because I was very concerned about his mental game going into the week — and he missed the cut at the US Open after an opening round of 78 which was eight over par. I picked up on his temperament after being on him two weeks ago at the Memorial. He plummeted out of contention that weekend by posting a round of 77 on Saturday before a 75 on Sunday. Even if I thought his mental game was on point, I would shy away from Hovland in Round One props since he ranks 93rd in Round One Scoring. Aberg, on the other hand, ranks 10th on the tour in Round One Scoring in 2024. Hovland has simply been too volatile for my tastes — especially at his short price. Take Aberg (7147) versus Hovland (7148) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-20-24 |
Brian Harman -122 v. Keegan Bradley | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from North Carolina up north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2024 season with 71 professionals competing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6835 yards, the course is one of the shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The lone adjustment from last year was the reduction of 17 yards from the Par Four ninth hole. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The fairways average 38 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are the sixth smallest greens on the tour, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected after last year saw an average score of 68.4000. The winning score has been at least 17 under par in five of the last six tournaments.
LONG SHOT BET: Brian Harman (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7015) versus Keegan Bradley (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:05 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win the PGA Travelers Championship is on Brian Harman who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Harman comes off a tie for 21st place at the US Open last week. He has made the cut in six straight events. He doesn’t always jump out when looking at the deeper analytics. But the reigning British Open champion thrives on shorter positional courses like this — he finished second at TPC Sawgrass at the PLAYERS Championship in March which was another Dye-designed course. He ranks 151st in Driver Distance — so get him away from long courses and he scores better. While Harman’s breakthrough was last season, his course history at TPC River Highlands has been outstanding. He is the third-highest money-earner at this tournament with six top-ten finishes since 2015 after his tie for second place last year. His average score in his last 22 rounds is a three-under-par 67. Nine of the last ten winners at this tournament previously finished tied for 31st place or better at this event. The last five winners also had a top-five finish on the PGA Tour before the end of March. He has five top 18 or better finishes in 2024 after finishing tied for second place at the proverbial fifth major championship at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. What was particularly impressive about that effort was that he gained over nine strokes versus the field with his irons while posting his personal best Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green numbers for the week. When the lefty is thriving with his irons, he becomes very dangerous due to his elite short game.
Harman is linked with Keegan Bradley for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Bradley is the defending champion here — but with that accomplishment comes in-week responsibilities and expectations. He comes off a tie for 32nd place last week at the US Open. He has only two top-20 finishes in his last 11 PGA events this season. He was good with his putter here last year — but he ranks only 119th in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. He has played this course 13 times as a professional with a second place and an eighth place on top of his victory last year. But he has finished outside the top-30 in six of those events with three missed cuts — so he has been hit-or-miss. Getting birdie opportunities is important at this course. He ranks 53rd on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and he is 59th in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage. Take Harman (7015) versus Bradley (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-13-24 |
Bryson DeChambeau +1.5 v. Viktor Hovland | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Pinehurst, North Carolina for the third major championship of the year with the 124th US Open at the Pinehurst Resort and Country Club No. 2 Course. This Donald Ross-designed course hosts the US Open for the fourth time with the most recent event taking place in 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7543 yards with just two Par Five holes. The fairways are wide with 35 to 45 yards of width — and they are expected to play soft this week. The 156 professionals will have to contend with 117 sand bunkers and a water hazard on one hole. The rough consists of wiregrass that plays unpredictably and can require the pros to lay. The greens have chanced from Bentgrass in 2014 to Champion ultra dwarf Bermuda grass in what will be the first US Open to utilize this putting surface. The average size of the putting greens is 6500 square feet which will play smaller given the runoffs. The top 60 golfers plus ties will make the cut for the weekend.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Bryson DeChambeau (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: DeChambeau (7015) versus Viktor Hovland (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.
DeChambeau has been great in the two previous majors this season. After finishing for tie sixth place at the Masters, he finished in second place at the PGA Championship. He is enigmatic — but he is also cerebral with his game which should help given the challenging run-off on these greens. DeChambeau is comfortable using his putter off the greens — and he is ahead of the curve in deploying the analytics regarding how to judge the putting surfaces from outside the green. His power off the tee and with his second shots will help him on this long course. He led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee at the Masters before finishing second in that metric at the PGA Championship. He led the field in both those tournaments in Driving Distance for those who made the cut. His second shot game has been solid — he ranked 22nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green at the Masters before ranking 20th in that metric at the PGA Championship. And at the PGA Championship, he led the field in Scrambling and finished second in Around-the-Green — and those skills will be critical this week. DeChambeau won the 2020 US Open — so he can compete and thrive under these tough scoring conditions.
DeChambeau is linked with Viktor Hovland in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. We were on Hovland last week at the Memorial — and he is struggling with his mental game after posting a round of 77 on Saturday before a 75 on Sunday. Even if I thought his mental game was on point, I would shy away from Hovland this week given his suspect short game. In the 2014 US Open at Pinehurst, the pros only hit Greens-In-Regulation 56.5% of the time which was the third lowest that year. Even in good form, Hovland struggles with his short game. He ranks 173rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 161st in Sand Save Percentage which makes those 117 sand bunkers a challenge. He also ranks 150th in Scrambling. In four US Opens, he has finished no better than a tie for 12th place. Take DeChambeau (7015) versus Hovland (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-13-24 |
Rory McIlroy v. Collin Morikawa +1.5 | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Pinehurst, North Carolina for the third major championship of the year with the 124th US Open at the Pinehurst Resort and Country Club No. 2 Course. This Donald Ross-designed course hosts the US Open for the fourth time with the most recent event taking place in 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7543 yards with just two Par Five holes. The fairways are wide with 35 to 45 yards of width — and they are expected to play soft this week. The 156 professionals will have to contend with 117 sand bunkers and a water hazard on one hole. The rough consists of wiregrass that plays unpredictably and can require the pros to lay. The greens have chanced from Bentgrass in 2014 to Champion ultra dwarf Bermuda grass in what will be the first US Open to utilize this putting surface. The average size of the putting greens is 6500 square feet which will play smaller given the runoffs. The top 60 golfers plus ties will make the cut for the weekend.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7012) versus Rory McIlroy (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:40 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the US Open is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. We were on Morikawa last week — and he got bested by Scottie Scheffler by one stroke to settle for second place at the Memorial. Morikawa was frustrating down the stretch as he had his chances to pull even. But let’s remember that Xander Schauffele blew it late at the Wells Fargo Championship the week before winning his first major at the PGA Championship last month. Form matters — and when compared to Scheffler’s odds at +280 at DraftKings, I simply do not believe that Scheffler outduels Morikawa five times as much under those circumstances last Sunday. Morikawa has been in great form since finished in a tie for third place at the Masters in early April. He finished in a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship before a solo fourth place at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago before last week’s second-place finish. That makes it six straight top-16 finishes in his last six stroke play tournaments beginning in Augusta. Morikawa is a great fit for this course which requires accuracy off the tee and precision around the greens given all the sand hazards. Morikawa ranks 11th on the tour on Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green even after a slow start to the season. He also ranks 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he has gained +2.5 strokes Around the Green per round versus the field in his last five events. Morikawa’s weakness is with his putter — but this is not a course where great putters get to flex their muscles given the small greens — but he has gained +2.0 shots with his putter in his last five events. He is above average with his blade inside of 15 feet — and that is what will be important this week given the runoff on the greens. His good short game will be critical. He also leads the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy at 77.72% — and missing the fairway is the recipe for trouble on this course. The last three winners of the US Open when hosted at Pinehurst all finished in the top ten for the week in Driver Accuracy. Morikawa has also gained +0.82 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last six tournaments. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa also has a great history at US Opens where he has a tie for fourth place, a tie for fifth place, and a tie for 14th place in his last three tournaments.
Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I’m happy to fade McIlroy who underachieved yet again last week with his tie for 15th place at the Memorial. He ranks second on the tour in Driver Distance — but that will not help him this week if he is inaccurate off-the-tee. He falls to 35th in Driver Accuracy. His short game is also an issue this week given the runoff from the greens. McIlroy ranks 66th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Take Morikawa (7012) versus McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-13-24 |
Brooks Koepka v. Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.5 | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Pinehurst, North Carolina for the third major championship of the year with the 124th US Open at the Pinehurst Resort and Country Club No. 2 Course. This Donald Ross-designed course hosts the US Open for the fourth time with the most recent event taking place in 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7543 yards with just two Par Five holes. The fairways are wide with 35 to 45 yards of width — and they are expected to play soft this week. The 156 professionals will have to contend with 117 sand bunkers and a water hazard on one hole. The rough consists of wiregrass that plays unpredictably and can require the pros to lay. The greens have chanced from Bentgrass in 2014 to Champion ultra dwarf Bermuda grass in what will be the first US Open to utilize this putting surface. The average size of the putting greens is 6500 square feet which will play smaller given the runoffs. The top 60 golfers plus ties will make the cut for the weekend.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick comes off a tie for fifth place at the Memorial where he shot the low round on Sunday of 64. He has made the cut in seven of his last eight events while finishing in the top 11 four times. Fitzpatrick’s all-around game helps him perform better on tougher golf courses. He ranks 16th in Driver Accuracy which will help him this week. He won the 2022 US Open — and he has two other top 12s at the US Open.
Fitzpatrick is linked with Brooks Koepka in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I don’t have much bad things to say about Koepka who has been a favorite of ours for years. But the move to the LIV Tour may have taken the edge off his “majors or bust” mojo. After a tie for the 45th place at the Masters, he settled for a tie for 26th place at the PGA Championship. He has not finished in the top 25 in the last three major championships. I’m fading against a former US Open champion in good form. Take Fitzpatrick (7024) versus Koepka (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-06-24 |
Collin Morikawa -172 v. Ludvig Aberg | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. This is the fourth event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. It is the seventh signature event on the PGA Tour this year with the higher financial payouts. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7569 yards. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 73 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The only change this year took place at the Par Three 16th hole where the tee was moved 30 yards to the right, a bunker protected the green was replaced with short grass, and two yards were shortened on the hole from the tee box. The greens consistently rank in the top ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.572 per round, the last six editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.
BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7009) versus Ludvig Aberg (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:30 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the Memorial is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa has been in great form since finished in a tie for third place at the Masters in early April. He finished in a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship before a solo fourth place at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. That makes it five straight top-16 finishes in his last five stroke play tournaments beginning in Augusta. Morikawa is a great fit for this course which requires accuracy off the tee and precision around the greens given all the sand hazards. Morikawa ranks 11th on the tour on Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green even after a slow start to the season. The last nine winners of this tournament finished the week in the top 12 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he has gained +2.5 strokes Around the Green per round versus the field in his last five events. Morikawa’s weakness is with his putter — but this is not a course where great putters get to flex their muscles given the small greens. This tournament sees the third lowest three-putt rates on the tour — and it ranks in the top five in putting from 5 to 15 feet. Morikawa ranks fourth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total when playing on courses with smaller greens since the beginning of 2023. At first glance, it may appear that Morikawa is not a great horse for this course when looking at the fact that he has only one top-40 finish at the Memorial in his four trips. That record ignores his victory at Muirfield Village when it hosted the John Deere Classic in 2020. He was then tied for ninth place and trailing by only two strokes after 54 holes at this tournament last year before having to withdraw because of back pain. Morikawa's lone top 40 here was a heartbreaker when he lost in a playoff against Patrick Cantlay in 2020. His skill set is a great match for this course — and he is in great form.
Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Aberg is a great young talent — but the 24-year-old Swede is dealing with a knee injury that might have played a role in his missing the cut three weeks ago at the PGA Championship. With the US Open on deck next week, his primary concern may be managing his health and building for the third major championship on the horizon. To compound matters, he has never played this course as a professional. This lack of experience puts him at a relative disadvantage to most of his peers — and course experience has been vital for success. Ten of the last 15 winners at this tournament have a previous top-three finish at a Nicklaus-designed golf course (like at Valhalla for the PGA Championship last month where Aberg missed the cut). Aberg may also struggle with the challenge around the green. Last year, only 52% of the pros reached the Green In Regulation — and the 9.39 GIRs per round average was the lowest on the PGA Tour. Aberg ranks 114th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks 50th in Sand Save Percentage which makes those 68 sand bunkers an ominous test for him. Aberg is great with his driver — and he ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But Shots Gained: Around the Green has been more important in what correlates with success at this course than Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Take Morikawa (7009) versus Aberg (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-06-24 |
Viktor Hovland -118 v. Ludvig Aberg | | 0-1 |
Loss | -118 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. This is the fourth event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. It is the seventh signature event on the PGA Tour this year with the higher financial payouts. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7569 yards. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 73 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The only change this year took place at the Par Three 16th hole where the tee was moved 30 yards to the right, a bunker protected the green was replaced with short grass, and two yards were shortened on the hole from the tee box. The greens consistently rank in the top ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.572 per round, the last six editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7011) versus Ludvig Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:20 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Hovland went through an existential crisis in the spring as he struggled with his swing — and he probably hit rock bottom when all this tinkering resulted in him missing the cut at the Masters. He then reconnected with his old swing coach Joe Mayo who seemed to immediately improve his ball striking at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship where he finished in a tie for 24th place. The reunion continued for the PGA Championship with Mayo’s impact being seen not only with his swing but also with his short game which is his Achilles’ heel as he finished an impressive third at the second major of the year. Hovland was probably too talented to be held back for long. Let’s remember the great summer Hovland enjoyed when he finished second at the PGA Championship before winning the Memorial Tournament and finally winning the PGA Tour Championship with back-to-back victories in the playoffs. Hovland’s rankings in the various Shot-Gained categories are not as impressive given his slump earlier in the year. He ranked fifth on the tour last season in Total Driving. He also ranked 11th on the Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. This is his sixth professional trip to Muirfield Village where he also finished in third place at the 2020 Workday that took place here as well as his victory at this tournament last year.
Hovland is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Aberg is a great young talent — but the 24-year-old Swede is dealing with a knee injury that might have played a role in his missing the cut three weeks ago at the PGA Championship. With the US Open on deck next week, his primary concern may be managing his health and building for the third major championship on the horizon. To compound matters, he has never played this course as a professional. This lack of experience puts him at a relative disadvantage to most of his peers — and course experience has been vital for success. Ten of the last 15 winners at this tournament have a previous top-three finish at a Nicklaus-designed golf course (like at Valhalla for the PGA Championship last month where Aberg missed the cut). Aberg may also struggle with the challenge around the green. Last year, only 52% of the pros reached the Green In Regulation — and the 9.39 GIRs per round average was the lowest on the PGA Tour. Aberg ranks 114th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks 50th in Sand Save Percentage which makes those 68 sand bunkers an ominous test for him. Aberg is great with his driver — and he ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But Shots Gained: Around the Green has been more important in what correlates with success at this course than Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Take Hovland (7011) versus Aberg (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
06-06-24 |
Shane Lowry -119 v. Denny McCarthy | | 74-76 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. This is the fourth event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. It is the seventh signature event on the PGA Tour this year with the higher financial payouts. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7569 yards. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 73 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The only change this year took place at the Par Three 16th hole where the tee was moved 30 yards to the right, a bunker protected the green was replaced with short grass, and two yards were shortened on the hole from the tee box. The greens consistently rank in the top ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.572 per round, the last six editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.
LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+6500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7109) versus Denny McCarthy (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:55 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer with the most value relative to their odds is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +6500 odds to win this tournament. We were on Lowry last week at the RBC Canadien Open -- and he finished tied for 33rd place after bouncing back from an opening +2 round with three straight rounds of two under par. I have been choosing the wrong weeks to back Lowry this spring. He was a disappointment at the Masters and the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town the next week — but then he won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event with Rory McIlroy before finishing tied for sixth place at the PGA Championship three weeks ago. Lowry led the field at the Masters in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and I would have doubled my bet that week if I had known that it would play out that way. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter — and he lost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting at Augusta National. Two things to consider about putting. First, it is the Shots-Gained category with the most variance from week-to-week. Second, smaller greens help mediocre putters and put great putters at a relative disadvantage — and Muirfield Village is not a course where great putters get to flex their muscles given the small greens. This tournament sees the third lowest three-putt rates on the tour — and it ranks in the top five in putting from 5 to 15 feet. It will always be better for a golfer like Lowry to get out their putter after reaching the green in regulation than even a great chipper missing the green in regulation. For 2024, Lowry also ranks third on the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy. He ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is fifth in the field over his last 36 rounds in that metric. He also ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. These are great skills to have at this tournament. The last nine winners all finished in the top 12 for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and 13 of the last 15 winners here finished in the top 10 in the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Lowry has a great track record at Nicklaus courses. He has finished in the top three at PGA National in three straight trips which Nicklaus redesigned. He has top third-place results and another ninth-place at Harbour Town. His tie for sixth place at the PGA Championship at Valhalla was a course Nicklaus designed. Surprisingly, he lost strokes with his Approach the Green numbers but gained almost ten strokes with his putter the week. His third-round score of 62 speaks to the potential of the former British Open winner this week. He has a win in the state of Ohio at Firestone. And he has tied for sixth place at this tournament in 2021 among three top 20s.
Lowry is linked with Denny McCarthy for Round One head-to-head props. McCarthy followed up a fifth-place finish at the Memorial last year with a second place at this event. Despite being a below-average ball striker, he scored low because he gained more than 16 combined strokes versus the field with his putter in both tournaments. McCarthy is a great putter who ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but relying on your blade is simply not a reliable nor sustainable strategy in the long run. It is telling that in his other two appearances at this tournament, he missed the cut and finished tied for 58th place. He also missed the cut at the 2020 Workday tournament that Muirfield Village Golf Club hosted. The question with McCarthy is can he get to the greens in a position to post a low score? He ranks 100th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks 97th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Lastly, McCarthy ranks 76th on the tour in Round One scoring — and Lowry ranks 22nd in Round One scoring. Take Lowry (7109) versus McCarthy (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-30-24 |
Tommy Fleetwood -119 v. Sahith Theegala | | 67-74 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the Hamilton Golf Course and County Club in Ancaster, Hamilton in Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open. This will be the seventh time that this golf course has hosted the Canadian national championship with the last two editions taking place in 2012 and 2019. Martin Ebert has rebuilt all 27 holes after the 2019 tournament in what was a three-year endeavor slowed by the pandemic. The West and South course feature this week. Ebert added 117 yards to the course, but the overall length of 7084 yards will still be the third shortest course on the PGA Tour this season. There are 12 Par Four holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 88 sand bunkers. Water comes into play on nine of the holes. The Bluegrass rough is 3 3/4 inches at its thickest. The greens consist of Bentgrass blended with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6000 square feet which is a 20% increase in size from the 2019 tournament.
BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7135) versus Theegala (7136) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:33 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the RBC Canadian Open is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood is in great form right now with six straight made cuts on the PGA Tour after his tie for 26th place two weeks ago at the PGA Championship. He has three top-13 finishes in his last five tournaments headlined by his tie for third place at the Masters in early April. Fleetwood splits his time between the PGA Tour and the DP Tour in Europe — so his Shots-Gained metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since he typically only plays the most challenging events. He won the Dubai Invitational in January which was his seventh victory on the DP Tour. Fleetwood now has seven top-four finishes at a major championship after last week including a runner-up at the British Open and the US Open. He has three top-fives at the US Open — and he currently ranks 11th in the world rankings. Fleetwood is one of the best players in the world with his short game. He ranked 14th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. This season, he ranks 20th in Putting from inside 10 feet. Putting has been a critical component for success at this golf course when playing for the Canadian national championship. The top six finishers in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2019 also finished in the top seven in the tournament’s standings. Eight of the top ten finishers in Shots-Gained: Putting that year finished in the top in the field. In the 2012 incarnation of this tournament at the Hamilton Golf and Country Club, four of the top six finishers in Shots-Gained: Putting also finished in the top four in scoring that week. Fleetwood tends to score better on shorter courses like this. Rory McElroy led the field in Driving Distance to win this tournament in 2019 — but he was the exception to the norm since the other five finishers in the top six all lost distance versus the field Off-the-Tee. What Fleetwood lacks in power he makes for in accuracy Off-the-Tee as he ranks third on the tour in 2024 Driver Accuracy. He is elite with his short game. For the 2024 season, he ranks 13th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, seventh in Scrambling, and eighth in Scrambling from the Round. And with the 12 Par Fours, Fleetwood leads the field this week in Par Four Scoring in his last 24 rounds. While Fleetwood is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, perhaps Xander Schauffele’s breakthrough win at a major championship will pave the way for Fleetwood to finally get his first victory on the PGA Tour. He lost in a heartbreaking playoff at the RBC Canadian Open last year when Nick Taylor sunk a 75-foot putt.
Fleetwood is linked with Sahith Theegala in Round One head-to-head props. Theegala is a trendy pick this week after finishing 12th at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. But I don’t think he is a great fit for this course. He is long Off-the-Tee — but the distance is mitigated this week given the layout. Accuracy Off-the-Tee is important on this course. Theegala ranks 63rd on the PGA Tour this year in Driver Accuracy — and he ranks 80th in Total Driving Efficiency. He also ranks 117th in Proximity to the Hole which is a concern given the relatively smaller greens. Theegala can struggle with his short game. He ranks 62nd on the tour in Scrambling and 128th in Sand Save Percentage. Both Fleetwood and Theegala are making their professional debuts on this course — but I think that hurts Theegala more given the international experience of the veteran Fleetwood. Take Fleetwood (7135) versus Theegala (7136) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-30-24 |
Taylor Pendrith -119 v. Nick Taylor | | 69-72 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the Hamilton Golf Course and County Club in Ancaster, Hamilton in Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open. This will be the seventh time that this golf course has hosted the Canadian national championship with the last two editions taking place in 2012 and 2019. Martin Ebert has rebuilt all 27 holes after the 2019 tournament in what was a three-year endeavor slowed by the pandemic. The West and South course feature this week. Ebert added 117 yards to the course, but the overall length of 7084 yards will still be the third shortest course on the PGA Tour this season. There are 12 Par Four holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 88 sand bunkers. Water comes into play on nine of the holes. The Bluegrass rough is 3 3/4 inches at its thickest. The greens consist of Bentgrass blended with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6000 square feet which is a 20% increase in size from the 2019 tournament.
LONG SHOT: Taylor Pendrith (+6000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7117) versus Nick Taylor (7118) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:40 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +6000 odds at DraftKings. Pendrith missed the cut two weeks ago at the PGA Championship — but he had posted four straight top 11 results in his previous four starts including winning the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson before a tie for 10th place at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship earlier this month. Now the Canadian will be highly motivated to win his country’s national championship as Nick Taylor did last year. Pendrith is one of the best putters on the tour. He ranks 13th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and he thrives when putting on the Bentgrass/Poa annua blend. Putting has been a critical component for success at this golf course when playing for the Canadian national championship. The top six finishers in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2019 also finished in the top seven in the tournament’s standings. Eight of the top ten finishers in Shots-Gained: Putting that year finished in the top in the field. In the 2012 incarnation of this tournament at the Hamilton Golf and Country Club, four of the top six finishers in Shots-Gained: Putting also finished in the top four in scoring that week. He finished in second place at the Detroit Golf Club which is a similar short positional course to the Hamilton Golf and County Club which features Bentgrass/Poa annua grass greens.
Pendrith is linked with Taylor in Round One head-to-head props. Taylor won an emotional playoff at the RBC Canadian Open last year — but it will be very difficult for him to repeat that championship on a different course this week. Taylor is not in great form right now either. He won the PGA WM Phoenix Open in early February — but he has not finished better than a tie for 12th in individual play since. He has not finished better than a tie for 46th place in individual play since April. Taylor has lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in four straight tournaments including at the PGA Championship in his last event two weeks ago when he missed the cut. Taylor ranks 120th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranks 153d in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Take Pendrith (7117) versus Taylor (7118) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-30-24 |
Shane Lowry -114 v. Sam Burns | | 0-1 |
Loss | -114 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the Hamilton Golf Course and County Club in Ancaster, Hamilton in Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open. This will be the seventh time that this golf course has hosted the Canadian national championship with the last two editions taking place in 2012 and 2019. Martin Ebert has rebuilt all 27 holes after the 2019 tournament in what was a three-year endeavor slowed by the pandemic. The West and South course feature this week. Ebert added 117 yards to the course, but the overall length of 7084 yards will still be the third shortest course on the PGA Tour this season. There are 12 Par Four holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 88 sand bunkers. Water comes into play on nine of the holes. The Bluegrass rough is 3 3/4 inches at its thickest. The greens consist of Bentgrass blended with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6000 square feet which is a 20% increase in size from the 2019 tournament.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Shane Lowry (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7009) versus Sam Burns (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:18 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer with the most value relative to their odds is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +2050 odds to win this tournament. I have been choosing the wrong weeks to back Lowry this spring. He was a disappointment at the Masters and the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town the next week — but then he won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event with Rory McIlroy before finishing tied for sixth place at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. Lowry led the field at the Masters in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and I would have doubled my bet that week if I had known that it would play out that way. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter — and he lost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Two things to consider about putting. First, it is the Shots-Gained category with the most variance from week-to-week. Second, smaller greens help mediocre putters and put great putters at a relative disadvantage. It will always be better for a golfer like Lowry to get out their putter after reaching the green in regulation than even a great chipper missing the green in regulation. Lowry does handle the Bentgrass/Poa annua blends better — he ranks top 40 in the field over his last 36 rounds when putting on these surfaces. For 2024, he ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Lowry also leads the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy and Fairways Hit. Lowry has won tournaments in Europe at Portrush and Wentworth that have similar layouts as the Hamilton Golf and Country Club — and he demonstrated his potential here with his tie for second place here at this tournament in 2019.
Lowry is linked with Sam Burns for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Burns is not in good form right now. After missing the cut in his last tournament at the PGA Championship, he has missed the cut in three of his last three tournaments on the tour. He has four top-tens this year — but they were all in January and February. He has only one top-25 result since the beginning of March. He is not a great fit for this course either since his Driving Distance for All Drives ranking of 25th on the tour will not help him as much this week. Burns ranks just 59th this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks 132nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Take Lowry (7009) versus Burns (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-23-24 |
Brian Harman -118 v. Denny McCarthy | | 0-0 |
Push | 0 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7289 yards with two Par-5 holes. The course has undergone a complete $20 million renovation since last year’s tournament. Each hole has new yardage lengths as 80 total yards have been added from last year. With tree-lined fairways, this course will still play as a shorter positional track. There are 84 sand bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The rough will be up to 2 1/2 inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass on greens that have been completely reworked and average 5000 square feet in size. There are 136 professionals competing this week with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend. BEST BET: Brian Harman (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7009) versus Denny McCarthy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:44 AM ET. Our Best Bet to win the PGA Charles Schwab Challenge is on Brian Harman who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Harman comes off a tie for 28th place at the PGA Championship last week. The encouraging aspect of his game last week was that he gained +5.7 strokes in Approach-the-Green. It was his fifth top-30 finish in his last eight tournaments. The reigning British Open champion is making a strong claim that he has become one of the top ten golfers at least on the PGA Tour. He has five top 18 or better finishes in 2024 after finishing tied for second place at the proverbial fifth major championship at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. What was particularly impressive about that effort was that he gained over nine strokes versus the field with his irons while posting his personal best Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green numbers for the week. Two weeks prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Harman gained over six strokes versus the field with his irons. When the lefty is thriving with his irons, he becomes very dangerous due to his elite short game. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green in his eight of his last nine events. He has gained +2.0 strokes versus the field in Putting in his last five tournaments. He ranks 19th on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Putting — and four of the top five finishers at this tournament last year finished in the top nine in Putting for the week. Harman loves playing short positional courses with smaller greens like the Colonial Country Club. He has made the cut here in nine of 11 past trips with eight top-30s and four top-15 results since 2015. He has finished in the top 10 three times — but now the 37-year-old is playing the best golf of his career. Finally, Harman has an early tee time on Thursday at 8:44 AM ET — and given the wind forecast for the next two days, the preferred schedule is early/late for Rounds One and Two. Harman is linked with Denny McCarthy for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McCarthy missed the cut last week at the PGA Championship. He did finish in a tie for sixth place in his previous event at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship — but that was just his second finish inside the top 26 all year. The 31-year-old has yet to win on the PGA Tour — and the last time a professional won their first PGA Tour event at this golf course was Sergio Garcia back in 2001. McCarthy has a good short game — but his struggles with his driver and his irons will likely hold him back this week. He ranks 154th on the PGA Tour this year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He then ranks 101st in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Furthermore, he ranks 102nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Not surprisingly, he has missed the cut in three of his five previous trips to this tournament — and his best finish was a tie for 27th place. Take Harman (7009) versus McCarthy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-23-24 |
Justin Rose -132 v. Daniel Berger | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7289 yards with two Par-5 holes. The course has undergone a complete $20 million renovation since last year’s tournament. Each hole has new yardage lengths as 80 total yards have been added from last year. With tree-lined fairways, this course will still play as a shorter positional track. There are 84 sand bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The rough will be up to 2 1/2 inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass on greens that have been completely reworked and average 5000 square feet in size. There are 136 professionals competing this week with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend. LONG SHOT: Justin Rose (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rose (7023) versus Daniel Berger (7058) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:44 AM ET. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Justin Rose who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. The crafty veteran comes off a tie for sixth place at the PGA Championship last week. Rose was hot with his putter as he gained +8 strokes versus the field with his blade. Rose ranks 41st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this year — but he has been one of the best putters in the world for over a decade. His precision on the greens has played a big role in his 11 wins on the PGA Tour which includes winning the 2013 US Open, two second-place finishes at the Masters, and another second place at the British Open. Four of the top five finishers at this tournament last year finished in the top nine in Putting for the week. The underlying numbers this season are not great — but he has now made three straight cuts which gives me confidence in the 43-year-old at a course that he has had great success at. Rose won at this course in 2018 -- and he has another three top 20 results in the last four years including a third place in 2020. Rose is linked with Daniel Berger in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Berger simply is not in great form right now. He has missed the cut in five of his 11 tournaments in 2024. His best finish was a tie for 13th place at the C.J. Cup Bryon Nelson three weeks ago — but he had not finished better than 28th place before that this year. He comes off a tie for 36th place at Myrtle Beach Classic two weeks ago in a second-tier tournament competing against the PGA Wells Fargo Championship which was a signature event with the higher prize money. He did not qualify for the PGA Championship last week. While Berger is accurate off-the-tee, he ranks just 179th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this year. He is really struggling with his short game. He ranks 133rd in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. And even more troubling given last year's results, he ranks 179th this year in Shots-Gained: Putting. Berger did win this tournament in 2020 — but he has not finished in the top 20 in his other four other trips. Take Rose (7023) versus Berger (7024) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us -- Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-23-24 |
Sepp Straka -111 v. Titch Moore | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7289 yards with two Par-5 holes. The course has undergone a complete $20 million renovation since last year’s tournament. Each hole has new yardage lengths as 80 total yards have been added from last year. With tree-lined fairways, this course will still play as a shorter positional track. There are 84 sand bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The rough will be up to 2 1/2 inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass on greens that have been completely reworked and average 5000 square feet in size. There are 136 professionals competing this week with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend. TOP OVERLAY BET: Sepp Straka (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7019) versus Taylor Moore (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:44 AM ET. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. We were on Straka last week for the PGA Championship — but he disappointed us by missing the cut. I’m not jumping off the bandwagon just yet — and his frustration from last week may pay dividends this week since he got the weekend off and will now have a chip on his shoulder. Straka has two top-ten finishes and five top-20 results in his last seven tournaments — and he had not finished worse than 16th place in his last four events before last week. He had an impressive tie for eighth place two weeks ago at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship. He has flexed his muscles recently at major championships. The Aussie finished tied for seventh place at the PGA Championship last year — and he later peaked with a tie for second place at the British Open. He has followed that up this season with a pair of 16th places at THE Players Championship and then the Masters. He is a great fit for this course. He is not long off the tee — but he ranks third on the PGA Tour for 2024 in Driving Accuracy. This is his fourth trip to the Colonial Country Club as a professional — and he finished in 29th place last year. Straka is linked with Taylor Moore in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Moore comes off a tie for 12th place at the PGA Championship last week which was his second best showing all year. Moore was a good fit at Valhalla last week since it rewarded big hitters off-the-tee. This positional course presents a different challenge — and Moore’s inaccuracy off-the-tee will be more of an issue. He ranks just 88th in Driving Accuracy on the tour in 2024. He also ranks only 96th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He has not had success at this event previously — he has missed the cut in his two previous professional appearances. Take Straka (7019) versus Moore (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
05-16-24 |
Sepp Straka -116 v. Alexander Noren | | 0-1 |
Loss | -116 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for the 106th PGA Championship. The second major championship tournament of the season hosts 156 professionals this week. Valhalla has hosted the PGA Championship on three previous occasions with the most recent being in 2014 when Rory McIlroy won the Wannamaker Trophy. This is a Par-71 track consisting of 7609 yards. Three Par-5 holes are complemented by another five Par-4s that consist of at least 484 yards to make this one of the longest challenges on the PGA Tour. The pros will contend with 62 sand bunkers. Seven of the holes feature water hazards. The rough reaches up to four inches of tall fescue. The greens consist of T-1 Bentgrass measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surface averages 5000 square feet which is on the smaller size. Some rain is expected but accompanied by light wind. The expectation is that the course will play wet and long given the soft landing areas.
LONG SHOT: Sepp Straka (+9000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7057) versus Alexander Nored (7058) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:10 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +9000 odds at DraftKings. Straka has two top-ten finishes and five top-20 results in his last six tournaments — and he has not finished worse than 16th place in his last four events. He comes off an impressive tie for eighth place last week at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship. He has flexed his muscles recently at major championships. The Aussie finished tied for seventh place at the PGA Championship last year — and he later peaked with a tie for second place at the British Open. He has followed that up this season with a pair of 16th places at THE Players Championship and then the Masters. He is a great fit for this course. He has enjoyed great success at other Nicklaus-designed courses. He won at PGA National and has two top twenty finished at the Memorial at Muirfield Village. He also has a win at the Nicklaus Club at Lions Gate on the Korn Ferry Tour. He is not long off the tee — but he ranks third on the PGA Tour for 2024 in Driving Accuracy.
Straka is linked with Alexander Noren in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Noren has finished no worse than a tie for 23rd place which was last week at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship — we were on him last week. The veteran is in great form. My concern with him this week is two-fold: Valhalla is not a great course fit for him and he underperforms at major championships. Noren ranks only 51st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is also just 68th on the tour in Total Driving. He has missed the cut in six of last seven majors with his only weekend being at last year’s British Open. The Swede’s best major results are at the British Open where he has two top-tens. He has missed the cut in four of his 11 PGA Championship events — and his only finish in the top 33 was a tie for 22nd place back in 2020. Take Straka (7057) versus Noren (7058) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-16-24 |
Ludvig Aberg v. Bryson DeChambeau +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for the 106th PGA Championship. The second major championship tournament of the season hosts 156 professionals this week. Valhalla has hosted the PGA Championship on three previous occasions with the most recent being in 2014 when Rory McIlroy won the Wannamaker Trophy. This is a Par-71 track consisting of 7609 yards. Three Par-5 holes are complemented by another five Par-4s that consist of at least 484 yards to make this one of the longest challenges on the PGA Tour. The pros will contend with 62 sand bunkers. Seven of the holes feature water hazards. The rough reaches up to four inches of tall fescue. The greens consist of T-1 Bentgrass measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surface averages 5000 square feet which is on the smaller size. Some rain is expected but accompanied by light wind. The expectation is that the course will play wet and long given the soft landing areas.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Bryson DeChambeau (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: DeChambeau (7018) versus Ludvig Aberg (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:53 AM ET. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Bryson DeChambeau who is listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings. DeChambeau impressed with a tie for sixth place at the Masters last month — and that was an intriguing accomplishment since Augusta National had been a place he has struggled at in the past. DeChambeau is one of the longest hitters in the world — and if is dialed in, he can be tough to beat as he demonstrated in 2020 when he won the US Open. DeChambeau has proven himself at PGA Championship events where he has finished in the top four in two of the last three tournaments. He performs well at Nicklaus-designed courses that tend to reward big hitters. He won the 2019 Memorial which is a good course comp since Tiger Woods won both that event as well as an early PGA Championship at Valhalla which demonstrated his proficiency on Nicklaus courses. DeChambeau is in good form on the LIV Tour with five top-ten finishes in 2024.
DeChambeau is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Aberg has a question mark with a sore knee that compelled him to withdraw from the PGA Wells Fargo Championship last week. Even if that was precautionary, it is less than ideal for the talented Swede. Aberg has a very bright future — but this is just his second major championship. While he is long off the tee, he can be inconsistent with his short game. Aberg ranks 111th in Around the Green and 62nd in Sand Save Percentage. He also ranks 73rd in Shots-Gained: Putting. DeChambeau has a similar talent profile — but more experience and a major championship under his belt. Take DeChambeau (7018) versus Aberg (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-16-24 |
Brooks Koepka +1.5 v. Xander Schauffele | | 0-1 |
Win | 124 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for the 106th PGA Championship. The second major championship tournament of the season hosts 156 professionals this week. Valhalla has hosted the PGA Championship on three previous occasions with the most recent being in 2014 when Rory McIlroy won the Wannamaker Trophy. This is a Par-71 track consisting of 7609 yards. Three Par-5 holes are complemented by another five Par-4s that consist of at least 484 yards to make this one of the longest challenges on the PGA Tour. The pros will contend with 62 sand bunkers. Seven of the holes feature water hazards. The rough reaches up to four inches of tall fescue. The greens consist of T-1 Bentgrass measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surface averages 5000 square feet which is on the smaller size. Some rain is expected but accompanied by light wind. The expectation is that the course will play wet and long given the soft landing areas.
BEST BET: Brooks Koepka (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Koepka (7013) versus Xander Schauffele (7014) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:53 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA Championship is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1600 odds to win this tournament. First, a few thoughts on why I am passing on Scottie Scheffler who is the overwhelming favorite this week listed at +400 to win at DraftKings after four victories and a second place in his last five tournaments. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has won the Masters again and is the best Ball-Striker in the world. But he has not played since the RBC Heritage in mid-April — and his routine has been upended with the birth of his child. Good for him! But at +400, those odds are simply too unappealing as underlay value. On the other hand, here comes Brooks Koepka who is fuming over his tie for 45th at the Masters. He has since finished ninth on the LIV Tour before winning the LIV event in Singapore. Now he looks to defend his PGA Championship from last year — and he has won three of the last six PGA Championships. Koepka simply thrives at PGA Championship layouts — he has six top-five finishes with those three victories. He loves dealing with the Zoysia fairway grass and Bentgrass putting surfaces. In his 11 trips to a PGA Championship or US Open, he has 11 top-five results with five victories. He lives for majors — and he is one of the few men on the earth who is completely convinced he remains a better player than Scheffler. He registered the joint low scoring in the final round of the 2014 PGA Championship here at Valhalla — and he closed that weekend out with rounds of 66 and 67. He is motivated and in top form.
Koepka is linked with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Schauffele remains consistently good — but he always finds ways to lose golf tournaments. He blew a four-stroke lead last week at the Wells Fargo Championship to settle for a distant second place to Rory McIlroy. He only shot par on Sunday when needing to put a number against McIlroy. He has never won a major championship in 27 tournaments. Seeing the script regarding how he falls short again this week at Valhalla is not difficult. Schauffele is not the best driver on the tour. He ranks 34th in Driving Accuracy and 39th in Driving Distance. He ranks 182 in Total Driving Efficiency — and that is an ominous number on such a long course. Long iron shots are also an issue — he ranks 133rd on the tour in Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards away. Schauffele also ranks 59th in Sand Save Percentage and 52nd in Scrambling from the rough — so he has not been elite when he gets in trouble. Take Koepka (7013) versus Schauffele (7014) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-09-24 |
Wyndham Clark -111 v. Patrick Cantlay | | 0-1 |
Loss | -111 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7558 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The forecast calls for some possible rain on Thursday. With 69 professionals competing this week with no weekend cut, this is the sixth signature event on the tour this year with the more lucrative payouts.
BEST BET: Wyndham Clark (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Clark (7007) versus Patrick Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:10 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Wyndham Clark who is limited at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Clark won this tournament last year — and he has been on a roll since. He later won the US Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. He finished tied for second place at THE Players Championship in March — and he comes off a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. He is a great fit for this course because he hits it long and has no major weaknesses in his game. He ranks sixth on the tour in Driving Distance. He is 14th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks ninth in Shots-Gained: Putting. Overall, Clark is second on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total.
Clark is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has not won a PGA Tour event in over two years. There are signs he is breaking out of his slump to start the year — he finished tied for 13th place at the Masters before a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage. But he is still an underlay relative to his odds based on his past reputation — especially when compared to Clark. Cantlay has struggled with his irons — he ranks 119th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Part of Cantlay’s problems this year is that he has lost length off his driver — he ranks 102nd in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Off-the Tee. Cantlay does not have a great track record at this course either. He finished in 33rd place at the 2017 PGA Championship before missing the cut at the 2018 Wells Fargo. His best finish was last year in his third trip to this course when he finished in 21st place. He was in better form last year than he is right now. Take Clark (7007) versus Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
05-09-24 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Tommy Fleetwood +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7558 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The forecast calls for some possible rain on Thursday. With 69 professionals competing this week with no weekend cut, this is the sixth signature event on the tour this year with the more lucrative payouts. TOP OVERLAY BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7012) versus Patrick Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:10 AM ET. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood is in great form right now with three top-tens in his last tournaments. He followed up a tie for seventh place at the Valero Texas Open a week before a tie for third place at the Masters last month. He finished in tenth place at the Genesis Invitational in February. He splits his time between the PGA Tour and the DP Tour in Europe — so his Shots-Gained metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since he typically only plays the most challenging events. He won the Dubai Invitational in January which was his seventh victory on the DP Tour. Fleetwood now has seven top-four finishes at a major championship after last week including a runner-up at the British Open and the US Open. He has three top-fives at the US Open — and he currently ranks 11th in the world rankings. Fleetwood is one of the best players in the world with his short game. He ranked 14th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. For the 2024 season, he ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 17th in Scrambling — and skill Around the Green is important at Quail Hollow. Four of the top-six finishers last year finished in the top six in Scrambling. While Fleetwood is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour — this course has served as the breakout location for Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Clark last year all lifted their first trophy on the PGA Tour. He has played well here as well. After finishing tied for 14th place in 2021, he returned in 2023 to finish tied for fifth place. This could finally be the week. Fleetwood is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has not won a PGA Tour event in over two years. There are signs he is breaking out of his slump to start the year — he finished tied for 13th place at the Masters before a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage. But he is still an underlay relative to his odds based on his past reputation — especially when compared to Fleetwood. Cantlay has struggled with his irons — he ranks 119th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Part of Cantlay’s problems this year is that he has lost length off his driver — he ranks 102nd in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Off-the Tee. Cantlay does not have a great track record at this course either. He finished in 33rd place at the 2017 PGA Championship before missing the cut at the 2018 Wells Fargo. His best finish was last year in his third trip to this course when he finished in 21st place. He was in better form last year than he is right now. Take Fleetwood (7012) versus Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-18-24 |
Collin Morikawa v. Will Zalatoris +1.5 | | 1-0 |
Win | 104 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week). TOP OVERLAY BET: Will Zalatoris (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Zalatoris (7020) versus Collin Morikawa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:25 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds to win this tournament is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +3000 odds to win this event at DraftKings. While I had been reluctant to jump back on the Zalatoris bandwagon after he underwent back surgery which derailed his 2023 season, the rising superstar seems back in full form. After posting a tie for 13th place at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, he followed that up with a tie for second place at the challenging Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles in February. He backed that up with a tie for fourth place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club where he enjoyed a five-stroke lead on Day Three before getting steamrolled (as everyone else did as well) by Scottie Scheffler. He took a step back in his next two tournaments — including a missed cut at the Masters last week — but he had a great week at Augusta where he finished in a tie for ninth place. Zalatoris currently ranks tenth in the FedEx rankings. This is a course built for shot makers — and that is an apt description for Zalatoris’ game. He ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 21st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. With second-place finishes at the Masters, US Open, and the PGA Championship under his belt, Zalatoris seems once again poised to take his game to the next level. In his two previous signature events with the higher paydays last week and at the Genesis Invitational, he ranked top-five in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, top ten in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and top 15 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. What is most encouraging about his game now is his improved putting which had been his Achilles heel in the past. He is gaining strokes versus the field weekly with his new broomstick putter — and he ranked in the top 22 in putting at the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational signature events earlier this season. He finished in 42nd place in his first appearance here three years ago — and he seems poised to get right back on track to the promising start to his career. Taking the first-place trophy would validate his return.
Zalatoris is linked with Collin Morikawa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head matchups. Morikawa comes off his best tournament of the season with a tie for third place at the Masters last week. Despite that finish, Morikawa is still tinkering with his game which suggests he is not happy with his form. Morikawa also addressed his putting deficiencies by switching tools — but he has moved to a mallet putter to start the season. But then he switched back to his old blade putter after Round One at the Masters. Switching putters mid-tournament is a rare occurrence. Who knows what he will do this week? He was also messing around with different full-swing options and staying longer at the driving range testing out these clubs. It is safe to say that he is not comfortable with his game despite his good week in Augusta. He began the year with a 14th place at Pebble Beach along with a 19th place at the Genesis Invitational — but those results are tempered by the smaller fields that signature events have allowed for in this new era on the PGA Tour. Granted, Morikawa won the Zozo Championship last October while most of the top pros were vacationing — but he only had two top-ten finishes last year. His putting continues to hold him back — he currently ranks 1161st on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Morikawa’s ball striking has been below his usual expectations as well. He ranks 106th on the tour in 2024 in Greens-in-Regulation which is a trouble on a course — and he ranks only 64th on the tour in Scrambling so he can struggle to get up-and-down if he misses the green. Furthermore, his Ball-Striking is off — he ranks 38th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 80th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Morikawa has made the cut in all four of his previous trips here — but save for his seventh place in 2021, he has not finished better than 26th place. Morikawa is similar to Brooks Koepka where his primary focus is on winning majors. That zeal probably explains his peaking last week at Augusta — he will use his next few tournaments to tinker and build for the PGA Championship next month rather than aim for the big payday this week. Take Zalatoris (7020) versus Morikawa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-18-24 |
Akshay Bhatia v. Shane Lowry -115 | | 71-70 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week). LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7134) versus Akshay Bhatia (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:25 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. We were on Lowry last week at the Masters — but he disappointed with a tie for 43rd place. I have invested in him a few times this season — and I’m not jumping off just because of a subpar week. Trying to play roulette playing off the prior’s week results is Fool’s Gold. I tend to continue to invest in golfers when the underlying numbers present strong value relative to the odds — and this formula has been successful. Lowry led the field last week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and I would have doubled my personal bet last week if I had known that it would play out that way. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter — and he lost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Two things to consider about putting. First, it is the Shots-Gained category with the most variance from week-to-week. Second, smaller greens help mediocre putters and put great putters at a relative disadvantage. It will always be better for a golfer like Lowry to get out their putter after reaching the green in regulation than even a great chipper missing the green in regulation. I liked Lowry last week because of his late Thursday tee-time as well — but that handicapping did not work out with the entire tournament delayed two hours on Day One which neutralized any potential disadvantage for those pros teeing off in the morning. That all said, the underlying numbers still look fantastic for Lowry — and it would be the regret I never forget if I jumped off him now at the +4000 price simply because of the previous week. In his previous start on the PGA Tour, Lowry was tied for 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He previously followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at the PGA National with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. He gained +5.4 strokes in Approach-the-Green on average in those previous three tournaments going into the Masters. For 2024, he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Total. Three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. Lowry also leads the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy and Fairways Hit. Furthermore, he leads the tour in Approach-the-Green Proximity if playing from the rough — so when he does miss, he recovers. Lowry has posted three top-ten finishes at Harbour Town since 2019 with two third-place results. Perhaps most importantly, he has lost strokes versus the field with his putter only once during that span. The 37-year-old fits the profile for those that win here. The last three winners here played the previous week at the Masters. The last five winners had previously made the cut at this tournament at least twice with at least 23rd place or better finish.
Lowry is linked with Akshay Bhatia in Round One head-to-head props. This was the exact same prop we invested in last week at the Masters — and despite Lowry ranking third on the tour in Round One Scoring and Bhatia ranking 69th in that category, Bhatia outshot Lowry by a stroke for the first round before falling to 35th for the tournament. After surviving Denny McCarthy’s furious comeback attempt two Sundays ago to win the PGA Valero Open, Bhatia may be overdue for the proverbial emotional and physical letdown this week. The 22-year-old is happy to collect paychecks — he has not taken a week off since THE PLAYERS championship last month so this will be his sixth straight week playing on the PGA Tour. THE PLAYERS was the final week of Conference Tournaments in college basketball — and I’m exhausted (actually, I have recovered over the last week but only after the taxes were completed). Imagine playing four rounds of golf each week without the benefit of a golf cart. Bhatia was dealing with a wrenched shoulder after his aggressive fist-pump when he won the Houston Open in that playoff. Perhaps that explains why he lost -4.5 strokes in Approach-the-Green last week? Or he may simply be tiring — but still scratching out paydays because he is 22? Good for him! But he tends to perform better at driver-heavy courses with wide-open fairways. Deftness with chipping and playing out of bunkers is also a critical component of success at this golf course — and Bhatia ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He did miss the cut in his previous three tournaments including at THE PLAYERS Championship last month which is considered the “fifth” major before his recent good run. He missed the cut at Harbour Town in his professional debut here last year. Take Lowry (7134) versus Bhatia (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-18-24 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Tommy Fleetwood -114 | | 1-0 |
Loss | -114 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week).
BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7012) versus Patrick Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:50 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood is in great form right now after his round of 69 on Sunday to finish for a tie for third place at the Masters. He finished tied for seventh week at the Valero Texas Open the week prior — and he finished in tenth place at the Genesis Invitational in February. He splits his time between the PGA Tour and the DP Tour in Europe — so his Shots-Gained metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since he typically only plays the most challenging events. He won the Dubai Invitational in January which was his seventh victory on the DP Tour. Fleetwood is one of the best players in the world with his short game. He ranked 14th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. For the 2024 season, he ranks 24th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 28th in Scrambling — and skill Around the Green is important at Harbour Town. Fleetwood tends to perform better on “less than driver” courses — and he has even been using a metal wood mini-driver that will help shape shots Off-the-Tee this week. Veterans who pride themselves on being shotmakers have lifted the championship trophy here in the past. The last ten winners at this tournament have averaged 32 years old — and Fleetwood turned 33 in January. The last three winners here played the previous week at the Masters. The last five winners had previously made the cut at this tournament at least twice with at least 23rd place or better finish. Fleetwood has made the cut here in three of his previous four visits here with a 10th-place finish in 2022 and a 15th-place result last year. He has shot 68 or lower in three of his last five rounds at Harbour Town. Fleetwood now has seven top-four finishes at a major championship after last week including a runner-up at the British Open and the US Open — but he is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour. This could finally be the week.
Fleetwood is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay finished in a tie for 22nd place at the Masters last week despite benefitting from two holes out during the week. He simply is not in great form right now with only one top-ten finish in his eight starts this year. He has only one win on the PGA Tour in the last three seasons. He is struggling with his Ball-Striking — he ranks just 72nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 149th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season after ranking third and 16th in those metrics respectively last season. Going into the Masters, he had lost strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his previous seven tournaments — and he lost strokes versus the field from Tee-to-Green in four of his last five events. For more comparison, he lost strokes versus the field from Tee-to-Green only four times in 2022 through 2023. Cantlay has short odds this week because of his great course history at Harbour Town — and perhaps he can simply flip the switch. But three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. Take Fleetwood (7019) versus Cantlay (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-11-24 |
Brooks Koepka +0.5 v. Jordan Spieth | | 73-79 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. The course is ten yards longer this year after the Par-5 second hole added ten yards to its length. The average round last year at this tournament was 72.960. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 89 professionals including 13 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather will play a significant role in this event, as it did last year. There is a 90% of precipitation from 8 AM ET to 1 PM ET with wind ranging from 15 to 25 miles per hour and perhaps gusting up to 40 MPH. The rain should begin to clear out in the afternoon but the wind will remain in the 10-20 MPH range with gusts still in play. Rain is not expected on Friday but the wind will remain a challenge with expectations being of the breeze reaching 30 miles per hour.
BEST BET: Brooks Koepka (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Koepka (7275) versus Jordan Spieth (7276) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:35 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the Masters is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1600 odds to win this tournament. First, a few thoughts on why I am passing on Scottie Scheffler who is the overwhelming favorite this week listed at +400 to win at DraftKings after back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship before a second-place finish at the PGA Houston Open. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has won The Masters and is the best Ball-Striker in the world. But the money-line favorite has not won the Masters in 19 years. Furthermore, his missing a five-foot putt to likely force a playoff with Stephen Jaeger two weeks ago at in Houston does not inspire confidence that his improved short game using the mallet putter has completely resolved his challenges with the blade. And then consider that he is teeing off at 10:42 AM ET tomorrow which means at least half his round could be in the worst of the rain and win. At +400, it is simply too unappealing underlay value.
I was already leaning toward Koepka as my Best Bet — and with him scheduled for the 28th group out of the 30 teeing off on Day One — he offers even more value. He tees off at 1:3 PM ET (at the earliest). Koepka’s move to the LIV Tour was consistenet with his simply not taking non-major championships as seriously. He is on the record that he uses the non-majors as his practice tournaments. It is hard to argue with that reasoning considering he has already won five major championships in his career. Since 2017, Koepka has registered multiple top-six finishes for the year at major championships in five of those seven seasons with the two years he failed that accomplishment being in 2020 when he did not play at the US Open and the British Open got canceled because of the pandemic and then 2022 when he was battling a back injury. Last year, Koepka won the PGA Championship and finished second at the Masters. He simply does not a hole in his game. Last year at this time, I was concerned about how the LIV golfers would perform at the Masters given their lighter schedule consisting of only 54 holes and the team scoring system. After Phil Mickelson and Koepka shared second place and Patrick Reed finished in a tie for fourth place, a case can be made that perhaps LIV golfers with plenty of experience at Augusta National may actually enjoy a situational advantage. Koepka comes into this tournament in better form than he did last year. I don’t worry about his tie for 45th place last week in the LIV event in Miami since it was just a warmup for this week. He has five top-15 finishes in his last six LIV events — and he won the LIV tournament at Jeddah in the fall. Finally, Koepka has a fantastic track record at the Masters with two second-place finishes among four top-11 results in his last five trips. And he has something extra to prove this week after leading last year’s tournament after 54 holes before fading to Jon Rahm. We were on Rahm last year — but Koepka got screwed by the weather that required him to play 27 holes on the Day Four Sunday. Perhaps the Weather Regression Gods will be on his side this year?
Koepka is linked with Jordan Spieth for Round One head-to-head props. The market simply cannot quit Spieth even though he has won only twice on the PGA Tour in the last seven years. Spieth’s course history at Augusta National is appealing with nine made cuts in his ten appearances. He won here in 2015, finished in second place in 2014 and 2016 — and he has three more top-four finishes including a tie for fourth place last year. The Obama Administration was very good to him when playing in Augusta. His form is a big question right now after he missed the cut in two straight events before a tie for 10th place last week at the PGA Valero Open in San Antonio. Spieth’s putter has bailed him out when he has played well this year — but his iron play has been substandard. Going into last week (I do not know how the final numbers played out last weekend — it doesn’t really matter), his best finish in 2024 at a tournament where he did not gain at least 5.0 strokes versus the field with his putter was a tie for 30th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Going into last week, he had lost stokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his last nine events — and he had lost strokes versus the field in Tee-to-Green in three straight tournaments. After ranking 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has fallen to 98th in that metric this year. He once finished the 2016-17 season second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so this has been a dramatic decline in his skill set with his irons. Spieth ranks 57th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and 11 of the last 12 winners of this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in that category. Take Koepka (7275) versus Spieth (7276) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-11-24 |
Akshay Bhatia v. Shane Lowry -128 | | 72-73 |
Loss | -128 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. The course is ten yards longer this year after the Par-5 second hole added ten yards to its length. The average round last year at this tournament was 72.960. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 89 professionals including 13 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather will play a significant role in this event, as it did last year. There is a 90% of precipitation from 8 AM ET to 1 PM ET with wind ranging from 15 to 25 miles per hour and perhaps gusting up to 40 MPH. The rain should begin to clear out in the afternoon but the wind will remain in the 10-20 MPH range with gusts still in play. Rain is not expected on Friday but the wind will remain a challenge with expectations being of the breeze reaching 30 miles per hour.
LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+6000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7256) versus Akshay Bhatia (7255) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:20 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowery who is listed at +6000 odds to win this tournament. I was already strongly considering Lowry at this price — but given the weather and his late 12:20 PM ET tee time, he presents fantastic value given his skill set and form. If it is going to be very windy for the first few rounds, we can’t do much better than a former British Open winner who grew up in Ireland playing in similar weather. Lowry comes off a tie for 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He previously followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at the PGA National with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. He gained +5.4 strokes in Approach-the-Green on average in those last three tournaments. For 2024, he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Total. The weakness in his game is with his putter — but the fast greens at Augusta National neutralize that potential disadvantage since the greens are tough on even the most skilled putters. Lowry has finished in the top 25 in the last four Masters tournaments including a tie for third place in 2021 and a tie for 16th place last year.
Lowry is linked with Akshay Bhatia in Round One head-to-head props. After surviving Denny McCarthy’s furious comeback attempt last Sunday to win the PGA Valero Open, Bhatia may be due for the proverbial emotional and physical letdown this week — especially in the bad conditions on Thursday. And when fist-pumping his crucial made putt to outlast McCarthy, he wrenched his shoulder which is still bothering him this week. Bhatia has three straight top 17s after last week — but he had missed the cut in his previous three tournaments including at THE PLAYERS Championship last month which is considered the “fifth” major. Not only is this Bhatia’s professional debut at Augusta National, this will be the first major championship he will be playing in. Prior experience at this tournament has been essential in winning the tournament — 25 of the last 26 winners of the green jacket made the cut at the Masters the previous year and 24 of the last 26 winners had previously finished in the top 30 at this event. The last 12 winners of the Masters had a previous top-ten finish at a major championship. While Bhatia does not need to win the tournament to outperform Lowry in Round One, these trends do not paint a great picture for him. Deftness with chipping and playing out of bunkers is also a critical component of success at this golf course — and Bhatia ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Lastly, Bhatia only ranks 66th on the tour in 2024 in Round One scoring — and Lowry ranks second on the PGA Tour this season in Round One scoring. Take Lowry (7256) versus Bhatia (7255) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-11-24 |
Hideki Matsuyama -123 v. Jordan Spieth | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. The course is ten yards longer this year after the Par-5 second hole added ten yards to its length. The average round last year at this tournament was 72.960. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 89 professionals including 13 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather will play a significant role in this event, as it did last year. There is a 90% of precipitation from 8 AM ET to 1 PM ET with wind ranging from 15 to 25 miles per hour and perhaps gusting up to 40 MPH. The rain should begin to clear out in the afternoon but the wind will remain in the 10-20 MPH range with gusts still in play. Rain is not expected on Friday but the wind will remain a challenge with expectations being of the breeze reaching 30 miles per hour.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7019) versus Jordan Speith (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:15 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on a golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. I don’t love his tee time at 10:15 AM ET — but it could be worse — and many of the top contenders including Scottie Scheffler tee off around this time as well. The Thursday weather is a significant consideration for me — but there remains the possibility that tomorrow’s schedule simply gets wiped out. Either way, I want to be invested in the 2021 Masters winner this week considering how great of form he is currently in. After struggling with his driver last year, Matsuyama has resolved those issues. His victory at the Genesis Invitational in February was the second most impressive for any PGA Tour professional save for Scottie Scheffler’s dominant performance last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also sandwiched a solid 12th place at Bay Hill between these efforts where he improved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green from the metrics he put up in those categories when winning at the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Going into last week, he led the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds — and he ranked 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Greeen in his last 36 rounds. He went into last week leading the tour in Tee-to-Green by 0.33 strokes per round over the next closest professions in his previous 12 rounds. In his last 12 rounds going into last week, he is also top-ten on the tour in Driving, Approach, and his Short Game. I do not have the updated numbers to freshen up those rankings, but he played well after finishing in a tie for seventh place. Matsuyama comes into this tournament ranked fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also a wizard with his chipper and getting up and down — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He has made the cut in all nine of his trips to Augusta National while finishing in 16th place or better eight times. He is only one of three pros to finish in the top 30 here in three straight years — so I am not jumping off his bandwagon even with his less-than-ideal tee-time given his outstanding form.
Matsuyama is linked with Jordan Spieth for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The market simply cannot quit Spieth even though he has won only twice on the PGA Tour in the last seven years. Spieth’s course history at Augusta National is appealing with nine made cuts in his ten appearances. He won here in 2015, finished in second place in 2014 and 2016 — and he has three more top-four finishes including a tie for fourth place last year. The Obama Administration was very good to him when playing in Augusta. His form is a big question right now after he missed the cut in two straight events before a tie for 10th place last week at the PGA Valero Open in San Antonio. Spieth’s putter has bailed him out when he has played well this year — but his iron play has been substandard. Going into last week (I do not know how the final numbers played out last weekend — it doesn’t really matter), his best finish in 2024 at a tournament where he did not gain at least 5.0 strokes versus the field with his putter was a tie for 30th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Going into last week, he had lost stokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his last nine events — and he had lost strokes versus the field in Tee-to-Green in three straight tournaments. After ranking 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has fallen to 98th in that metric this year. He once finished the 2016-17 season second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so this has been a dramatic decline in his skill set with his irons. Spieth ranks 57th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and 11 of the last 12 winners of this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in that category. Take Matsuyama (7019) versus Spieth (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-04-24 |
Collin Morikawa v. Hideki Matsuyama -135 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, gusts have been forecasted as possible on Friday. The average score was 72.092 per round last year. The first layer of rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as four inches. Three are bunkers on 17 of the 18 holes which are also consistently rated as the top-ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7004) versus Collin Morikawa (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +2200 odds to win at DraftKings. Matsuyama comes off a tie for sixth place at THE PLAYERS Championship where he registered his personal best Ball-Striking numbers (Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green). Matsuyama slumped a bit last season — but the former Masters champion is back at full strength now. His victory at the Genesis Invitational in February was the second most impressive for any PGA Tour professional save for Scottie Scheffler’s dominant performance last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also sandwiched a solid 12th place at Bay Hill between these efforts where he improved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green from the metrics he put up in those categories when winning at the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds — and he ranks 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Greeen in his last 36 rounds. He leads the field this week in Tee-to-Green in 2024. In his last 12 rounds, he leads the tour in Tee-to-Green by 0.33 strokes per round over the next closest professions. In his last 12 rounds, he is also top-ten on the tour in Driving, Approach, and with his Short Game. Matsuyama is also a wizard with his chipper and getting up and down — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. This is his fourth trip to TPC San Antonio after a tie for 15th place last year along with a tie for 30th place and an event where he was forced to withdraw. Matsuyama will not be saving anything for next week at Augusta — he has the confidence to not only win this tournament and then also go out and win his second green jacket.
Matsuyama is linked with Collin Morikawa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Morikawa is simply in bad form right now. After missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he followed that up with an underwhelming tie for 45th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He has struggled with both his putter and his irons in these last two tournaments. Morikawa’s challenge with his blade is his biggest long-term issue. He ranks 136th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2024. But after ranking second on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, he has dropped to 52nd in the metric in 2024. The top-four finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in the Approach as well. Morikawa ranks 93rd in Ball-Striking which is just above the tour average. He also ranks 66th this year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Asking Morikawa to simply flip the switch this week is a lot to ask — especially since this is his debut at this course as a professional. Take Matsuyama (7004) versus Morikawa (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-04-24 |
Collin Morikawa v. Corey Conners -120 | | 70-70 |
Push | 0 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, gusts have been forecasted as possible on Friday. The average score was 72.092 per round last year. The first layer of rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as four inches. Three are bunkers on 17 of the 18 holes which are also consistently rated as the top-ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7004) versus Collin Morikawa (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Corey Conners (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7114) versus Morikawa (7113) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Corey Conners who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. It’s hard to go wrong with the defending champion and two-time winner at this event. His skill set is an ideal fit for this course — and while he will once again give it his all in Augusta next week, he is not going to turn down a payday this weekend. This season, Conners ranks second on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation, sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, second in the Approach from 275 yards or more away from the hole, 22nd in Driving Distance, and 14th in Proximity. He is in very good form after following up a tie for 18th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill with a tie for 13th place at THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. At THE PLAYERS, he gained more than three strokes both in Off-the-Tee and in the Approach against the field. He has gained more than 3.5 strokes versus the field in Strokes-Gained: Ball-Striking (Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green) in his last five tournaments. He has made the cut in all five of his visits to TPC San Antonio including winning for the first time in 2019 — and his scoring average per round in those 20 rounds is 69.50.
Conners is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa is simply in bad form right now. After missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he followed that up with an underwhelming tie for 45th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He has struggled with both his putter and his irons in these last two tournaments. Morikawa’s challenge with his blade is his biggest long-term issue. He ranks 136th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2024. But after ranking second on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, he has dropped to 52nd in the metric in 2024. The top-four finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in the Approach as well. Morikawa ranks 93rd in Ball-Striking which is just above the tour average. He also ranks 66th this year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Asking Morikawa to simply flip the switch this week is a lot to ask — especially since this is his debut at this course as a professional. Take Matsuyama (7004) versus Morikawa (7003) in head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
04-04-24 |
Max Homa v. Brian Harman +0.5 | | 68-71 |
Loss | -130 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, gusts have been forecasted as possible on Friday. The average score was 72.092 per round last year. The first layer of rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as four inches. Three are bunkers on 17 of the 18 holes which are also consistently rated as the top-ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week. LONG SHOT: Brian Harmon (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7116) versus Max Homa (7115) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:04 AM ET.
Our Long Bet to win the Valero Texas Open on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Brian Harman who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. The reigning British Open champion is making a strong claim that he has become one of the top ten golfers at least on the PGA Tour. He has four top 18 or better finishes in 2024 after finishing tied for second place at the proverbial fifth major championship at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. What was particularly impressive about his efforts was that he gained over nine strokes versus the field with his irons while posting his personal best Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green numbers for the week. Two weeks prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Harman gained over six strokes versus the field with his irons. Harman did miss the cut two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship — but that should have him ornery for this event. Harman has made the cut here in four of his six previous visits with three top-22 or better finishes — but this is his first time back since 2019. I think he chose to compete at this event for a reason.
Harman is linked with Max Homa in Round One head-to-head props. Homa is simply in a slump right now after his tie for 64th place at THE PLAYERS Championship three weeks ago. He lost over four strokes Off-the-Tee versus the field that week. He has lost strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green versus the field in five of his last seven events. He ranks 126th this season on the tour in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking. He is 56th in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The top-four finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in the Approach as well. Homa returns to this tournament for the first time since 2019 having never finished in the top 40 in his three previous visits. Take Harman (7116) versus Homa (7115) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 goal-line if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-28-24 |
Kurt Kitayama +0.5 v. Alexander Noren | | 73-69 |
Loss | -124 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.
LONG SHOT: Kurt Kitayama (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kitayama (7141) versus (7036) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:15 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Kitayama who is listed at +5000 odds to win this tournament. Kitayama has made six of seven cuts on the tour this year headlined by a tie for eighth place at the WM Phoenix Open last month. He comes off a 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He is a threat this week given the shorter rough that will help bombers because he ranks 39th on the tour in Driving Distance and 27th on the tour Driving Distance: All Drives — and he is 13th in Longest Drives so he can take advantage of the forgiving rough. Kitayama also ranks 33rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 40th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green.
Kitayama is linked wth Alex Noren in Round One head-to-head props. Noren is enjoying a fine season after making the cut for the sixth straight event with his 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He is adept at all phases of the game except for his driver. He ranks 137th in Driving Distance and 119th in Longest Drives — and his edge away from the tee is likely going to be minimized with this course now conducive to bombers. He finished tied for fourth place in the last tournament here in November 2022 — but he missed the cut in his prior appearance. Take Kitayama (7141) versus Noren (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-28-24 |
Tony Finau v. Jason Day +0.5 | | 69-72 |
Loss | -131 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.
BEST BET: Jason Day (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Day (7136) versus Tony Finau (7016) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.
Our Best Bet is on Jason Day who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. The veteran is in good form, plays well in Texas, and will go all-out for the victory if in contention this week. Day has made the cut in six of his seven events in 2024 with three top-tens including a tie for sixth place at Pebble Beach and a ninth place at the Genesis Invitational. Day plays well in Texas where he has registered three of his 13 victories on the PGA Tour have taken place in the state as he has proven himself adept at handling the wind in the Lone Star state. Day is one of the longer drivers off-the-tee — he ranks 37th on the tour this season Driving Distance: All Drives. He also ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he should feel comfortable letting it rip off-the-tee given the short rough since he is adept at getting up-and-down if he misses the green on his approach. Day is also a good lag putter attuned to larger greens like he will confront this week. He has been effective previously at this tournament when the course probably was more of a challenge. He has made the cut in all three previous appearances with a tie for seventh place in 2020 — and he averaged a score of 69.42 per round in those three years. Day is linked with Tony Finau in Round One head-to-head props. Finau is the reigning champion from the November 2022 incarnation of this tournament. Finau had made seven straight cuts this year before missing the cut by five strokes last week at the Valspar Championship. But only one of those seven finishes was in the top 12 — and four of his results this year have been top 45 or worse. Finau ranks only 79th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance with his short game holding him back this year. He ranks 132nd in Scrambling and 144th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He missed the cut at this tournament in 2021 after a 24th place in 2020. And while Finau ranks 63rd on the tour this season in Round One scoring, Day ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring so far for 2024. Take Day (7136) versus Finau (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-28-24 |
Siwoo Kim -135 v. Tom Hoge | | 69-71 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Si Woo Kim (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Woo Kim (7137) versus Tom Hoge (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Woo Kim is enjoying a great season with eight made cuts in all eight tournaments this season which has elevated him to 25th in the FedEx standings. He comes off a tie for sixth place at THE PLAYERS Championship where he gained strokes in all four major Stokes-Gained categories. Woo Kim has four victories on the PGA Tour — but he will not sacrifice anything this week for another big payday since he is not really in contention to win the Masters. His skill set fits well with the demands of this course. Woo Kim ranks 13th this season Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also 12th in Greens-In-Regulation. Woo Kim ranks 20th in Scrambling — and it is this balanced skill set that has him ranked 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tota. The Texas resident finished in 35th place at the November 2022 edition of this tournament — but he gained more than +8.0 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green that week.
Woo Kim is linked with Tom Hoge in Round One head-to-head props. Hoge is elite with his iron play — he ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But Hoge is simply not good with his driver — and that appears to be the wrong skill set for the revamped course in March this week. Hoge ranks 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee with that metric brought down by ranking 151st in Total Driving and 134th in Driving Distance. Not surprisingly, Hoge has struggled at this tournament with a missed cut and a 46th place in his two previous visits. Hoge ranks a solid 48th on the tour this year in Round One scoring — but Woo Kim ranks 23rd in Round One scoring. Take Woo Kim (7137) versus Tom Hoge (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-14-24 |
Shane Lowry -125 v. Cameron Young | | 71-70 |
Loss | -125 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.
LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7165) versus Cameron Young (7166) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:00 PM ET.
Lowry is having a great time during the Florida swing portion of the PGA Tour. He followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He had a part of the lead at the end of the day for each of the first three rounds before being overtaken by Scottie Scheffler. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. The former British Open winner likely has his invite to the Masters sewed up — so he can play this event pressure-free. He ranks fifth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Getting safely on the green is essential for success at this event. Since THE Players Championship moved to March and dismissing the 2020 suspended tournament (COVID) and the weather-marred 2022 event, the three winners here all led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking in the top ten in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Lowry thrives on courses designed by Pete Dye — he has two third-place finishes at Harbour Town and a fourth place at the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island. He also has a nice track record here at TPC Sawgrass where he has two top 15 finishes since 2021 including an eighth-place finish that year. After opening at +3500 odds, his price has risen to +4500 which offers tremendous value given his form.
Lowry is linked with Cameron Young for Round One head-to-head props. Young comes off a middling tie for 36th place last week at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer. He is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour — and I’m not sure it happens on a difficult course like this with a stacked field given the prestige of it being the “fifth” major championship. Young’s strength is his distance off-the-tee — but that is neutralized this week on the Pete Dye course that features so many dog-leg holes. He ranks only 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, he ranks 75th in Bogey Avoidance — and he is averaging a bogey on 12.57% per hole (as of last week which is ominous at a difficult course like this. Young’s putting can be inconsistent — he ranks 106th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Form has been an accurate barometer for success at THE PLAYERS Championship as 11 of the last 12 winners finished in 22nd place or better in their previous tournament. Lowry checks that box — and Young does not. Take Lowry (7165) versus Young (7166) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-14-24 |
Collin Morikawa v. Will Zalatoris +0.5 | | 71-73 |
Loss | -126 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.
BEST BET: Will Zalatoris (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Zalatoris (7162) versus Collin Morikawa (7161) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:50 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win THE Players Championship is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +2800 odds to win this event at DraftKings. While I have been reluctant to jump back on the Zalatoris bandwagon after he underwent back surgery which derailed his 2023 season, the rising superstar seems back in full form. After posting a tie for 13th place at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, he followed that up with a tie for second place at the challenging Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last month. He backed that up with a tie for fourth place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club where he enjoyed a five-stroke lead on Day Three before getting steamrolled (as everyone else did as well) by Scottie Scheffler. With second-place finishes at the Masters, US Open, and the PGA Championship under his belt, Zalatoris seems once again poised to take his game to the next level. He is already one of the best ball-strikers on the planet. He currently ranks seventh on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and 21st in Par 5 Scoring. In his two previous signature events with the higher paydays last week and at the Genesis Invitational, he ranks top-five in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, top ten in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, top 15 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and top 30 in Driving Distance. Getting safely on the green is essential for success at this event. Since THE Players Championship moved to March and dismissing the 2020 suspended tournament (COVID) and the weather-marred 2022 event, the three winners here all led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking in the top ten in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. But what is most encouraging about his game now is his improved putting which had been his Achilles heel in the past. He is gaining strokes versus the field weekly with his blade — and he ranked in the top 22 in putting in both signature events earlier this season. Zalatoris has made the cut in each of his previous trips here including a 26th place in 2022 and a 21st place last year a month before he would eventually withdraw from the Masters and miss the rest of the season due to his ailing back. He now seems poised to get right back on track to the promising start to his career.
Zalatoris is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head matchups. Morikawa has a 14th place at Pebble Beach along with a 19th place at the Genesis Invitational — but those results are tempered by the smaller fields that signature events have allowed for in this new era on the PGA Tour. Granted, Morikawa won the Zozo Championship last October while most of the top pros were vacationing — but he only had two top-ten finished last year after missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last March. We faded Morikawa in a head-to-head at the Arnold Palmer last week — and he missed the cut. His putting continues to hold him back — he currently ranks 135th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Morikawa’s ball striking has been below his usual expectations as well. He ranks 105th on the tour in 2024 in Greens-in-Regulation which is a trouble on a course where the pros only reached the Greens-in-Regulation 59% in last season’s event at TPC Sawgrass. Morikawa ranks only 100th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he can struggle to get up-and-down if he misses the green. Furthermore, he ranks 111th on the tour in Total Driving and 88th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Morikawa finished 13th at this tournament last year — but he missed the cut in 2022 after 41st place in 2021. Form has been an accurate barometer for success at THE PLAYERS Championship as 11 of the last 12 winners finished in 22nd place or better in their previous tournament. Zalatoris checks that box — and Morikawa does not. Take Zalatoris (7162) versus Morikawa (7161) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-14-24 |
Max Homa v. Hideki Matsuyama +0.5 | | 68-69 |
Loss | -124 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. TOP OVERLAY BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7152) versus Max Homa (7019) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.
Matsuyama slumped a bit last season — but the former Masters champion seems to be back at full strength now. His victory at the Genesis Invitational last month was the second most impressive for any PGA Tour professional save for Scottie Scheffler’s dominant performance last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But while Scheffler sits at underlay +550 odds, Matsuyama opened this week at +3000 and has dropped to a very tasty +4000 price. He comes off a solid 12th-place finish last week at Bay Hill where he approved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green. In his last 36 holes, he ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks in the top ten in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last 20 rounds. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Getting safely on the green is essential for success at this event. Since THE Players Championship moved to March and dismissing the 2020 suspended tournament (COVID) and the weather-marred 2022 event, the three winners here all led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking in the top ten in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Matsuyama has three top-ten finishes at this tournament and six top-23 or better finishes overall in his career. His best result was last year when he finished in fifth place — and who knows what happened in 2020 when he led the field after Day One with a round of 63 before everything shut down because of COVID. He offers great value this week.
Matsuyama is linked with Max Homa for Round One head-to-head props. Homa had not finished higher than a tie for 13th place so far in 2024 before his tie for 8th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. His Sunday round of 73 was a disappointment. Despite the top-ten finish last week, his form this season remains a bit discouraging for him given the smaller fields in the first three signature events as well as that the west coast swing is now done where he usually plays his best golf as a Southern California native. Homa is just 141st on the tour in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green). In his last five tournaments, he has not gained more than +1.0 strokes in the Approach versus the field. Second shots are critical for success at TPS Sawgrass — but Homa ranks 133rd of the 144 professionals this week in long iron proximity. He also ranks just 60th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Matsuyama (7152) versus Homa (7151) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-07-24 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick -130 v. Cameron Young | | 0-1 |
Loss | -130 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.
LONG SHOT: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7027) versus Cameron Young (7028) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:45 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick is lurking after his third 21st place or better in his six tournaments in 2024 with his tie for 21st place last week at PGA National. The 2022 US Open winner tends to perform better on difficult courses where par is a good score. He ranks third in the field at this tournament in the last five years by averaging +2.13 strokes versus the field per round (minimum ten rounds). In his nine trips to Bay Hill, he has seven top-30s with six top-14s or better. He finished in second place at this tournament in 2019 — and eight of the last nine winners of this tournament finished tied for 17th place or better in previous trips. One of the reasons Fitzpatrick should be considered dangerous on difficult courses is because he leads the field in the last 12 months in Scrambling. Long irons are also important on this course as 60% of the Approach shots last year came from at least 150 yards — and 30% of those Approaches were from 200 yards. Despite a relatively slow start, Fitzpatrick still ranks 18th in the Approach from 175-200 yards and he ranks 20th in the Approach from 200 or yards away. International players tend to perform well here given the wind — so backing Fitzpatrick as a long shot is prudent.
Fitzpatrick is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Young is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour — and I’m not sure it happens at a difficult course like this with a stacked field given the purse of the signature event. Young comes off a tie for fourth place last week at the PGA National — and he is intriguing at Bay Hill given his length Off-the-Tee. He has two top-15 finishes in his previous two trips here. But Young ranks 66th in Bogey Avoidance — and he is averaging a bogey on 12.57% per hole which is ominous at a difficult course like this. Young’s putting can be inconsistent — he ranks 72nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The last five winners at this event have finished in the top 12 in putting on average. Young also ranks 54th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and six of the last winners of this event went into the week ranked in the top six in the field in that category. Take Fitzpatrick (7027) versus Young (7028) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-07-24 |
Viktor Hovland -126 v. Collin Morikawa | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.
BEST BET: Viktor Hovland (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7009) versus Collin Morikawa (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:20 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Hovland opened 2024 with a solid tie for 22nd place at The Sentry — but he did not play well at Pebble Beach where he settled for a tie for 58th place. He withdrew from the WM Phoenix Open to return home to Norway to correct some issues with his swing. He returned to the states at the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera County Club in Los Angeles where his game looked much better in a tie for 19th place. His Ball-Striking was much better that week as he gained at least +1.5 strokes per round both Off-the-Tee and in Approach-the-Green. He also gained strokes Around-the-Green on both Saturday and Sunday of that event — and his short game tends to be his Achilles’ heel. Hovland does perform better in the short game when chipping from thick rough or dealing with firm Bermuda greens — so that bodes well for him this week. Let’s remember the great summer Hovland enjoyed when he finished second at the PGA Championship before winning The Memorial Tournament at Jack Nicklaus’ course before finally winning the PGA Tour Championship with back-to-back victories in the playoffs. His power with his driver and with long irons give him an edge this week. He ranked fifth on the tour last season in Total Driving. He also ranked 11th on the Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and six of the last seven winners of this tournament entered the week ranking in the top 16 or better in that metric (granted, I’m using last year’s numbers for Hovland but the sample sizes are different now with the tour reverting it’s new “season” to the beginning of the calendar year rather than after the PGA Championship in August). Additionally, 30% of the approach shots at this tournament come from at least 200 yards away by the professionals — and Hovland ranked seventh on the tour for 2022-23 in the Approach from 200-225 yards. Hovland leads the field in Shots-Gained per round when playing in Florida for the last years. In his five starts at this tournament, he finished tied for second place in 2022 and tied for tenth place last year. He has gained more than +9.0 strokes from Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Tee-to-Green) in each of his last two appearances at Bay Hill. Eight of the last nine winners at this tournament had previously finished tied for 17th place or better — so Hovland checks plenty of boxes this week.
Hovland is linked with Collin Morikawa for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Morikawa followed up a 14th place at Pebble Beach with a 19th place at the Genesis Invitational — but those results are tempered by the smaller fields that signature events have allowed for in this new era on the PGA Tour. Granted, Morikawa won the Zozo Championship last October while most of the top pros were vacationing — but he only had two top-ten finished last year after missing the cut at this tournament last March. His putting continues to hold him back — he currently ranks 119th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. That is a problem at Bay Hill since the last five winners all finished in the top 12 in Shots-Gained: Putting. But Morikawa’s ball striking has been below his usual expectations. He ranks 75th on the tour in 2024 in Greens-in-Regulation which is a trouble on a course where the pros only reached the Greens-in-Regulation 56% of the time. Morikawa ranks only 50th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so he can struggle to get up-and-down if he misses the green. The length of this course will challenge him — he ranks 134th on the tour in Total Driving and 88th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Morikawa had not played this event since 2020 before last year. Not only is that telling — but his last four rounds going back to the salad days of pre-COVID have been over par. Take Hovland (7009) versus Morikawa (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
03-07-24 |
Max Homa v. Sam Burns -120 | | 1-0 |
Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7020) versus Max Homa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:10 AM ET.
Burns is lurking with four straight top tens on the PGA Tour. After a tie for sixth place at The American Express in January, he followed that p with a tenth-place finish at Pebble Beach. He then finished in third place at the WM Phoenix Open last month where he led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and finished third in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. In his most recent start at the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles three weeks ago, he finished in tenth place in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and second in Scrambling. Burns can handle the length of this course — he ranks seventh on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and tenth in Driving Distance. He also has had success dealing with heavy wind. And while only 56% of the professionals last year reached the Greens-in-Regulation, Burns currently ranks tied for the 20th on the tour in Greens-in-Regulation. And if he misses the green, Burns leads the tour in Scrambling. And after ranking eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting last season, he now ranks 14th on the tour with his blade. In his last four events, he has finished in the top 17 in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he has finished in the top nine in his two tournaments. Putting is critical this week — the last five winners of this tournament finished 12th or better for the week in putting. Burns has won five times on the PGA Tour since May of 2021 — and two of those victories have been in Florida. Burns' best finish at Bay Hill was a tie for ninth place in 2022 — and eight of the last nine winners here had previously finished in a tie for 17th place or better here.
Burns is linked with Max Homa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Homa has not finished higher than a tie for 13th place so far in 2023 which is a bit discouraging for him given the smaller fields in the first three signature events as well as that the west coast swing is now done where he usually plays his best golf as a Southern California native. The deeper metrics are troubling. While Burns ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green), Homa is just 124th on the tour in that category. In his last four tournaments, he has not gained more than +1.0 strokes in the Approach versus the field. Second shots at Bay Hill are of at least 200 yards — and Homa has been over par on average when on the Approach from 200-225 yards this season. Homa ranks in the bottom ten in the field in both 200 or more yards out in proximity from both the rough and the fairway. He also ranks 109th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Burns (7020) versus Homa (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-29-24 |
Eric Cole -107 v. Sungjae Im | | 0-1 |
Loss | -107 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508-yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Eric Cole (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Cole (7013) versus Sungjae Im (7014) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:25 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Eric Cole who is listed at +2800 odds to win this tournament. Cole has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events — and he has five top-25 results in 2024 after his tie for tenth place in his last tournament at the Genesis Invitational. Cole ranks third in the field in his last 50 rounds in Shots-Gained: Total — behind Rory McIlroy and J.T. Poston. Accuracy off the tee is important on this course given all the water and sand bunkers. After ranking 163rd in Driver Accuracy last season, he improved to 47th in that metric in 2024. He ranks 24th in Bogey Avoidance — and the last ten winners in the field averaged sixth in the field in that metric. He lost in a playoff in his debut last season — and he could put a cherry on top of his rise in level of play in the last twelve months with a victory now.
Cole is linked with Sungjae Im in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Im is not in good form — his 44th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational was the best effort in his last four tournaments. I have backed Im many times in the past — but he simply is not in good form right now. He lost strokes in every major category but his putter in Los Angeles at the Riviera County Club two weeks ago — and he lost -4.6 strokes in Tee-To-Green. Im ranks 107th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and eight of the last nine winners at this event finished in the top five for the week in this category. Im is just 160th in Greens-In-Regulation — and four of the top nine finishers in this tournament finished in the top seven in that category. He is also just 71st in Bogey Avoidance this season. Im won here in 2020 — I’m not saying we have not made money off him. But he has missed the cut and finished tied for 42nd place in his last two visits. Take Cole (7013) versus Im (7014) in tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-29-24 |
Cameron Young v. Russell Henley -114 | | 1-0 |
Loss | -114 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508 yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three-inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.
BEST BET: Russell Henley (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7006) versus Cameron Young (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:50 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the PGA Cognizant Classic is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament. Henley comes off a tie for 24th place at the Genesis Invitational two weeks where he gained +1.2 Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for fourth place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i earlier this year. Now the Macon, Georgia, native and former University of Georgia Bulldog returns his Southeast region of the country where the Bermuda grass thrives. Three of his four victories on the PGA Tour and 14 of his 20 career top-fives have been on courses that feature Bermuda greens. While losing strokes with his blade on every other putting surface, Henley gains +0.3 Shots-Gained: Putting when on Bermuda greens. Henley’s accuracy Off-the-Tee and precision with his middle irons makes him a great fit for this course. He has gained +2 strokes versus the field in Tee-to-Green on average in his last five tournaments — and eight of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top-five in the field in that category. Henley also ranks 23rd on the tour in 2024 in Bogey Avoidance — and the last ten winners of this tournament has averaged sixth in the field for the week in that category. Henley has a great track record at PGA National where he won the event in 2014 and has made the cut in all nine of his trips. Overall, he has six top-25 finishes in his nine appearances here — and his last trip to PGA National resulted in a tie for third place in 2021. In his last four appearances here, he gained more than +3 strokes versus the field in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach the Green).
Henley is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young comes off a 16th place at the PGA Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Young is long Off-the-Tee — and he is reliable with his second shot approach shots. But Young’s short game leaves much to be desired. He ranks 169th on the tour for 2024 in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and this is troublesome with all the sand traps on the course where he ranks 107th on the tour in Sand Saves this season. He also ranks just 104th in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the top-five finishers at this tournament last year all finished in the top four in putting. Young also ranks just 67th in Bogey Avoidance. Young finished a solid 16th here in his only professional appearance at the PA National — but that week demonstrated his volatility with his great ball-striking but shaky short game. He scored 3-over par on Friday and 4-over par on Saturday that week. Take Henley (7006) versus Young (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-29-24 |
Corey Conners v. Chris Kirk +0.5 | | 69-67 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508 yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three-inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.
LONG SHOT: Chris Kirk (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kirk (7110) versus Corey Conners (7109) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:15 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Chris Kirk who is listed +4000 odds at DraftKings. Kirk should be feeling feisty this week after missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA Genesis Invitational. Kirk had made the cut in his first four events this year including winning the PGA The Sentry to begin the new season in a stacked field in Hawai’i. Kirk won this tournament last year after previously finishing tied for seventh and 25th place here — so he is very comfortable at the PGA National. At these odds, I’m quite comfortable in taking our chances in his running it back. Kirk ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Total when playing at courses in Florida in the last three years. Kirk ranks 10th on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and eight of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top-five in this category for the week. Kirk also ranks 13th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance in 2024 — and the last ten winners at PGA National averaged sixth in the field for the week in this category.
Kirk is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners comes off a tie for 24th place at the Genesis Invitational in what has been a solid but unspectacular start to the year where he has made the cut in all five appearances on the tour but has not finished better than that result in Los Angeles two weeks ago. Conners is a great ball-striker — but his short game remains the weakness in his game. He ranks 165th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the top-five finishers at this event all placed in the top-four in putting last year. He also ranks 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and 167th in Sand Save Percentage which is not encouraging with the 60 bunkers at this course. Conners ranks 64th on the tour this season in Bogey Avoidance which is not a good formula for success at this tournament. In his last visit here in 2020, he missed the cut — and it does not speak to his confidence playing here that he has not returned before now. In his other appearance in 2018, he settled for 59th place. Take Kirk (7110) versus Conners (7109) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-22-24 |
Jake Knapp +0.5 v. Ryo Hisatsune | | 67-69 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. LONG SHOT: Jake Knapp (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Knapp (7123) versus Ryo Hisatsune (7124) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Jake Knapp who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Knapp is the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What is exciting about Knapp is his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp is focusing on ball speed off his club — and he is getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranks 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance — and his troubles with accuracy are mitigated this week with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough. Knapp also has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he has gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he has also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect to Knapp this week is his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp is well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this.
Knapp is linked with Ryo Hisatsune in Round One head-to-head props. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that will make a big difference this week. Instead, he ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranks 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Knapp (7123) versus Hisatsune (7124) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-22-24 |
Nicolaj Hojgaard -138 v. Emiliano Grillo | | 0-1 |
Loss | -138 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.
BEST BET: Nicolai Hojgaard (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hojgaard (7005) versus Emiliano Grillo (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the Mexico Open is on Nicolai Hojgaard who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. The 22-year-old from Denmark seems on the cusp of breaking out on the PGA Tour after posting 13 straight made cuts worldwide with a victory, two-second places, and a third-place finish. He finished tied for second place last month at Torrey Pines — and there has been a correlation between success on that golf course and good results at this event. Length with the driver is critical at this event with its wide fairways and forgiving rough. Hojgaard ranked second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open — and he led the field in that category the next week at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Hojgaard success with the driver comes from his power more than his accuracy — he ranks 31st on the tour in Driving Distance. He is also good with his irons. After ranking 56th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards out for the 2022-23 season, he leads the PGA Tour in that metric in 2024, albeit from a small sample size from three PGA events. Hojgaard also ranked 24th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the top-six finishers at this event last year all finished in the top nine in putting. Most of the top pros are taking this week off — so that 24th ranking looks even better relative to the field this week. And while putting on the slow Paspalum grass is a different experience, Hojgaard has demonstrated his ability to adapt to this surface by finishing in second place at the Corales Puntacanala in Mexico last year which also features those greens. Hojgaard finished tied for 33rd place at this tournament last year while leading the field in Proximity to the Hole. He is poised to win his first PGA Tour event this time around.
Hojgaard is linked with Emiliano Grillo in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Grillo has made the cut in all six of his PGA Tour events in 2024 with help from a hot putter — but he is struggling with his irons right now. In finishing tied for 44th place last week at the PGA Genesis Invitational, he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Grillo ranks only 77th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he falls to 120th on the tour when the distance is from the 175 to 200-yard range. He is not long with his drier either — he ranks 152nd on the tour in Driving Distance. Grillo ranks 115th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and the importance of success in this skill is demonstrated by Tony Finau who has led the field in that category the last two years leading to second-place and first-place results (I don’t like Finau this year because of his price and his current experimentation with his putter — FYI). Grillo also ranks 99th on the tour in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach the Green) — and both Finau and Jon Rahm finished second in that metric en route to winning this event. Grillo has made the cut in both his previous appearances here including a tie for fifth place last year — but he is not as confident with his iron right now. Take Hojgaard (7005) versus Grillo (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-22-24 |
Patrick Rodgers v. Taylor Pendrith +1.5 | | 1-0 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Taylor Pendrith (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7018) versus Patrick Rodgers (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:30 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed +2500 odds at DraftKings. The 32-year-old Canadian has taken his game to the next level this year with two top-10 finishes in his three PGA Tour events. After a tie for tenth place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i, he comes off a tie for fourth place at Pebble Beach three weeks ago. Pendrith has five top-15 finishes in his last seven tournaments going back to last season. Pendrith has the power with his driver to have success this week — he ranks 10th in Driving Distance this season after asking 30th and 10th in that metric in the previous two years. Pendrith also brings a strong overall game to this event — he ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks 23rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green as well — and Tony Finau led the field in that category the last two years en route to his second and first-place finishes (I don’t like Finau this year because of his price and his current experimentation with his putter — FYI). Even better, he ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and that ranking is even more impressive when considering that most of the top pros took this week off. Pendrith also ranks 24th on the tour in Par 5 Scoring this year — and both winners of this event the last two years tied for second in that category while shooting 12-under par on the Par 5s. Pendrith ranks 14th in Bogey Avoidance this year as well — and Finau only had two bogeys in Rounds Two through Four in his second-place result two years ago before only two Bogeys and a double last year when taking the title. Pendrith is 15th on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Putting — and each top-six finisher last year at this event finished in the top nine in putting. He has also shown proficiency with his blade on Paspalum greens as he finished 15th at the El Cordova tournament in Mexico. He has experience on this course as well after a tie for 30th place last April at this event. He is rested and ready.
Pendrith is linked with Patrick Rodgers in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Rodgers has two 10th-place finishes at this tournament — but form is an issue for him lately as he followed up a 79th place finish at Pebble Beach with a missed cut last week at the Genesis Invitational. Rodgers’ blade is letting him down right now — he ranks 121st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. And while he is long with his driver, he ranks just 58th this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks just 130th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and he is 95th in the Approach from 200 or more yards away. Additionally, Rodgers ranks 41st in Par 5 Scoring and 50th in Bogey Avoidance — so Pendrith should be poised for a better week. Take Pendrith (7018) versus Rodgers (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-15-24 |
Max Homa v. Adam Scott +0.5 | | 73-72 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour.
LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+3000 odds at DraftKings). xRecommended Prop Bet: Scott (7032) versus Matt Fitzpatrick (7031) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:40 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorite is on Adam Scott who is listed at +3000 odds to win this event. Scott may be the best proverbial horse for the course this week. He has won this tournament twice including his last victory in 2020. He has made the cut in 14 of his 15 trips here — and he has another two second-place finishes and five more top-15 results at The Riviera Country Club. Overall, it’s six top-ten finishes in his last nine visits here — and the thing is this week is that the 43-year-old comes in with great form. He opened his PGA Tour with a tie for 20th place at Pebble Beach before a tie for 8th place last week at the WM Phoenix Open which is an event that would not seem to fit the veteran’s typical oeuvre. In Scott’s last six events worldwide, he has five top tens, and all six finished in the top 20. In Phoenix last week, he finished tied for eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he finished 12th in the Approach at Pebble Beach. Scott ranks fifth on the tour for 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and the last two winners at this event led the field in Approach for the week. Scott ranks sixth in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and seven of the last eight winners at this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Scott also ranked 15th in Driving Distance (all drives) last season — and seven of the last 12 winners at this event finished in the top 12 in that category for the week.
Scott is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick comes off a tie for 15th place at the WM Phoenix Open which was his best result in 2024 — but his underlying metrics are below Scott’s so far this year. Fitzpatrick ranks 115th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 85th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 161st on the tour Three-Putts — and the last ten winners of this tournament had nine three-putts for the entire tournament once on the green with eight of these winners having one or zero three-putts for the week. Furthermore, Fitzpatrick ranks 88th in Bogey Avoidance in 2024 — and seven of the last eight winners of this tournament have finished in the top nine for the week in avoiding bogeys. Take Scott (7032) versus Fitzpatrick (7031) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-15-24 |
Rory McIlroy v. Xander Schauffele +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour.
BEST BET: Xander Schauffele (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Schauffele (7006) versus Rory McIlroy (700) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Schauffele has not won a PGA Tour event since the summer of 2022 at the Scottish Open — but, apparently, I just cannot quit him. While initially dismissing him this week, after assessing the form of his primary competitors and then examining the specific traits that are predictive of success, it would be the regret that I would never forget if I got off him this week — especially with his odds dropping from his initial +1400 price at DraftKings on Monday. Despite being stuck on seven PGA Tour wins, he leads the tour with 38 straight made cuts — so he has been remarkably consistent. He started 2024 with a tie for tenth place at The Sentry, a tie for third place at The American Express, and then a tie for ninth place at the Farmers Insurance Open. He then took a step back with a tie for 54th place at Pebble Beach before dropping from the WM Phoenix Open last week. Schauffele cited a wrist injury for the withdrawal early in the week — and that is a red flag. On the other hand, he may simply decided to dodge the booze fest that is that tournament in Phoenix last week, take a breather, get back to 100%, and then attack this event which now has a higher payout as a signature event to compete with the money on the LIV Tour. I’m taking a small leap of faith — but the price is right. Schauffele has a great track record at The Riviera Country Club where he has made the cut in all six of his previous visits including four top-15 results. His best finish is tied for ninth place in 2019. His average score after the cut in all six previous appearances is a crisp 68.67. But the clincher for Schauffele is how well he matches up with the attributes that have defined success at this tournament recently. Seven of the last ten winners of The Genesis Invitational have finished in the top 12 in Driving Distance (all drives) for the week while each of the last ten winners has finished in the top 28 in that category — and Schauffele ranks 12th on the PGA Tour in 2024 in Driving Distance (all drives). Even better, seven of the last eight winners of this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and Schauffele ranks fifth on the tour this year in that category. Furthermore, seven of the last eight winners of this event finished in the top nine in Bogey Avoidance for the week — and Schauffele leads the tour this year in avoiding bogeys. Four of the top five finishers last year at this tournament finished in the top seven in Scrambling for the week — and Schauffele ranks 17th on the tour in Scrambling. Lastly, the last ten winners of this tournament had nine three-putts for the entire tournament once on the green — and eight of these winners had one or zero three-putts for the week. Schauffele ranks ninth on the tour this year in Three-Putt Avoidance.
Schauffele is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Frankly, I usually avoid McIlroy in my selections since his price is usually too low for my liking — but I’m not fond of fading him either. But in this instance, McIlroy is in shaky form — and I’m skeptical how much he can flip the switch in the short run when his real objective is getting amped up for the Masters in six or so weeks. McIlroy had a good start to 2024 with a tie for second place and a first place in Dubai — but he struggled with his irons when settling for a tie for 66th place at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. Going back to last year, McIlroy ranked 21st in Bogey Avoidance last season — good, but vulnerable relative to how Schauffle is doing avoiding red numbers. More strikingly, McIlroy ranked 66th in Scrambling last year which may cause him more trouble this week. Take Schauffele (7006) versus McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-15-24 |
Viktor Hovland v. Sam Burns +0.5 | | 70-70 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7124) versus Viktor Hovland (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:00 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sam Burns who is priced at +2200 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Burns is in great form coming off a tie for third place at the WM Phoenix Open where finished +6.5 strokes above the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. That was his third top ten in 2024 after a tie for sixth place at The American Express and a tenth place at Pebble Beach. All 15 of his rounds this year have been under part. Distance off the tee helps at the Riviera Country Club where seven of the last ten winners of The Genesis Invitational have finished in the top 12 in Driving Distance (all drives) for the week while each of the last ten winners has finished in the top 28 in that category — and Burns ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in 2024 in Driving Distance (all drives). Furthermore, seven of the last eight winners of this event finished in the top nine in Bogey Avoidance for the week — and Burns ranks fourth on the tour this year in avoiding bogeys. Four of the top five finishers last year at this tournament finished in the top seven in Scrambling for the week — and Burns ranks 11th on the tour in Scrambling. Lastly, the last ten winners of this tournament had nine three-putts for the entire tournament once on the green — and eight of these winners had one or zero three-putts for the week. Burns ranks tied for ninth on the tour this year in Three-Putt Avoidance. Burns has something to prove at this event after blowing a Sunday lead here on the Sunday in 2021 where he finished one shot off a playoff. He has five PGA Tour wins — and he would love to make this his sixth.
Burns is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. We have won a lot of money on Hovland over the years — and I remain bullish on him long-term. But he is out of form right now. He decided to withdraw from the WM Phoenix Open because of something off with his game. After a tie for 22nd place at The Sentry in early January, he followed that up with a tie for 58th place at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. He went back home to Norway to work on his game before flying back to California for this event. It sounds like a short-term slump — but expecting to simply flip the switch and outperform a pro at the level of Burns on Thursday is probably too much to ask. At Pebble Beach, Hovland lost -3 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and he lost another -2 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Hovland has lost strokes with what is typically his very reliable irons in three straight tournaments. Maybe he gets it going — but he comes into this event under less than desirable circumstances after bypassing the WM Phoenix Open by going back home. Take Burns (7124) versus Hovland (7213) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced not higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-08-24 |
Si Woo Kim v. JT Poston -119 | | 68-70 |
Loss | -119 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two. TOP OVERLAY BET: JT Poston (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Poston (7147) versus Si Woo Kim (7130) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:55 PM ET.
Our Top Overlay bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on J.T. Poston who is listed at +3500 odds. Poston opened the week at +3000 odds but has dropped to +3500 — despite his excellent form where he has four straight top 20 finishes in 2024 after his tie for 20th place at Pebble Beach last week. He finished tied for 11th place at the American Express two weeks ago. Poston remains undervalued due to his significant improvement in the last six months with his iron play last summer. While he ranked 37th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 13th in the Greens-In-Regulation for the 2022-23 season, he was at his best later in the summer where he registered 24th place or better finishes in seven of his nine tournaments. He came out firing in 2024 with his tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He followed that up with a tie for sixth place at the PGA Sony Open, Poston now has seven top-ten finishes in his last 13 events — and he has three top-six results in his last six tournaments. Poston has always been effective with his short game — so his improved play with his irons makes him a threat every week. Poston ranked 24th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he also ranked ninth in Scrambling last season — so he if does miss the green in regulation, he should still avoid bogeys. The last nine winners here have also finished tied for sixth or better for the week in Par-Breakers (shooting better than Par). Poston is 15th on the tour this season in Par-Breakers. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners here have finished tied for seventh place or better in one of their previous five starts — and Poston checks that box off. The last eight winners here have previously finished in the top ten here as well — and Poston nearly fits that bill with an 11th-place finish at this tournament in 2021. He did miss the cut here last February — but that was before his improvement in play with his irons in the summer. He has made the cut in his four other appearances at the WM Phoenix Open including a 23rd-place finish in 2022.
Poston is linked with Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim ranks slightly better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Ball-Striking versus Poston — but Poston still ranks in the top 34 in both categories while Kim is 17th in Tee-to-Green and 24th in Ball-Striking so the difference is not significant. But Kim does not compare as well in some of these other indicators for success at TPC Scottsdale. He comes off his best performance of the season last week with a tie for 14th place at Pebble Beach where he gained +5.2 strokes versus the field with his putter. But he had not finished higher than 25th place in his other three starts in 2024 — so he does not meet the seventh place or better marker in his previous five starts that 12 of the last 13 winners here have achieved. Kim only ranks 30th on the tour in 2024 in Par-Breakers — so he seems less likely to finish the week in the top six in that category which the last nine winners here have registered. Kim has a spotty record in his eight trips to this tournament. He has missed the cut three times — and his tie for 23rd place last year was his best finish. The only other time he finished inside the top 50 was in 2022 when he finished in 26th place. This course history suggests he may not love the festive atmosphere of this unique tournament. And while neither professional has finished in the top ten here as the previous eight winners have, Poston just missed with his 11th-place result in 2021 while Kim has not come close to that accomplishment at TPC Scottsdale. Take Poston (7142) versus Kim (7141) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-08-24 |
Scottie Scheffler v. Justin Thomas +0.5 | | 68-69 |
Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.
BEST BET: Justin Thomas (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Thomas (7131) versus Scottie Scheffler (7132) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET.
Our Best Bet to win the WM Phoenix Open is on Justin Thomas who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. I initially thought I was passing on Thomas — but after assessing the evidence and then seeing his Monday odds at DraftKings drop from +1000 to +1100, I concluded that I would be riddled with regret if I did not invest in Thomas even at these short odds this week. Thomas simply checks all the boxes this week — and I can live with 11:1 odds as opposed to Scheffler who is 4.5:1. Thomas endured a horrific slump last summer — but his reputation was enough for him to be named to the US Ryder Cup team. He now says that the vote of confidence helped him find his elite form again — as did the crowds that were cheering him on during that event. This tournament is the most gregarious crowd event on the PGA Tour — and I want to target pros who have thrived in these atmospheres in the past. Thomas is now in great form — after tying for sixth place last week at Pebble Beach, he has top-six finishes in four straight events. He also finished in a tie for third place two weeks ago at The American Express — and he has finished all seven of those rounds with scores in the 60s. If not for Round Four getting canceled last week, perhaps Thomas competes to win that tournament after being held back by an unusually poor effort with his putter in his two rounds at the Pebble Beach course. Thomas has a great track record at this event with six top-20 finishes since 2018 with an average score of 67.75 per round. He has four top-ten finishes in his last five appearances here as well — he finished fourth last year and has two other third-place results since 2019. Thomas has not won on the PGA Tour since the PGA Championship in 2022 — and, frankly, the 22-month drought was scaring me off him (it’s been profitable to continue to fade perennial losers on the tour over the years). But this tournament has consistently been the spot where golfers breaking losing runs. Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka all won their first PGA Tour event here. Koepka won for the second time here to snap a 19-month drought. Webb Simpson broke a 20-month drought by winning here. Rickie Fowler won here after a 23-month interim from his previous PGA Tour title. Gary Woodland had not won in 3 1/2 years on the tour before winner here as well. Additionally, Thomas is thriving in the specific skill sets that have been critical for success at this tournament. Of the last nine winners here, all nine finished tied for 19th or better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week — and six of those nine winners finished first or second for the week in that metric. Thomas leads the PGA Tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Six of the last seven winners here have finished tied for six or better in Ball-Striking (Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green). Thomas also leads the PGA Tour in Ball-Striking this year. The last nine winners here have also finished tied for sixth or better for the week in Par-Breakers (shooting better than Par). Thomas is second on the tour in 2024. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners here have finished tied for seventh place or better in one of their previous five starts — and Thomas checks that box off. The last eight winners here have previously finished in the top ten here as well — and Thomas also fits that bill.
Thomas is linked with Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. This is a great value bet when getting plus money even when grabbing the valuable +0.5 strokes for the opening round. Scheffler is the two-time defending champion here — but winning this event three times in a row is uncharted territory at most tournaments. Defending champions have additional tournament responsibilities that will not help his Thursday preparation. The weakness in Scheffler’s game is with his putter — he ranks 117th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2024. Optimists would argue that he is getting better with his blade since he ranked 162nd in this category for the 2022-23 season. Maybe — Scheffler ranks only 67th in Ball-Striking this season which is not an encouraging metric going into this week. Additionally, after Scheffler led the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring last season, he has fallen to 19th in Round One Scoring in 2024. In winning this tournament the last two years, Scheffler scored 68 in the opening round both times. Thomas has shot below 68 in Round One at this tournament in three of his nine trips here — and he has come in at 68 two other times in those nine previous appearances. Thomas also ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring in 2024. Take Thomas (7131) versus Scheffler (7132) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-08-24 |
Hideki Matsuyama +0.5 v. Cameron Young | | 69-67 |
Loss | -130 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two. LONG SHOT: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7135) versus Cameron Young (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Matsuyama emphatically checks the Horse for the Course box as a two-time winner at this event. He also finished tied for second here and has seven top-ten results at TPC Scottsdale overall. Matsuyama has been quoted as saying “I love playing here” — so it is safe to say the loud atmosphere is to his liking. The concern for the 31-year-old has been his form after he failed to play up to his high expectations last summer. The 2021 Masters champion now finds himself outside the top 50 in the worldwide rankings for the first time in 10 1/2 years — but he is showing signs of regaining his elite form. He finished tied for 13th place two weeks ago at Torrey Pines — and he finished the week fifth best in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He closed out 2023 with a tie for 10th place at the Dunlop Phoenix Open as well. He was just tied for 71st place last week at Pebble Beach before the fourth round was canceled last week. Matsuyama has not won on the PGA Tour since winning the Sony Open in 2022 — but this tournament has consistently been the spot where golfers break losing runs. Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka all won their first PGA Tour event here — as did Matsuyama. Koepka won for the second time here to snap a 19-month drought. Webb Simpson broke a 20-month drought by winning here. Rickie Fowler won here after a 23-month interim from his previous PGA Tour title. Gary Woodland had not won in 3 1/2 years on the tour before winner here as well. Six of the last ten winners at this event have been just three professionals including Matsuyama — so backing a past winner at this price is enticing.
Matsuyama is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young is not in great form right now — he finished in 70th place last week at Pebble Beach while losing -2.5 strokes to the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Young has lost strokes versus the field in five straight tournaments — and he has lost strokes versus the field in his second shot Approach the Green in five of the last six events that used Shot Link to measure that category.
Young is long Off-the-Tee — he ranked seventh in Driving Distance last season but he is not just not playing well with the other aspects of his game. This is just his third tournament in 2024. Young’s irons tend to be only mediocre — he ranked 92nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season. If Young misses the green, he can get into trouble — he ranked 119th on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He struggles with his blade. In his tie for 33rd place at The Sentry last month, he lost strokes versus the field with his putter. In his last 14 tournaments where ShotLink measured individual strokes (before last week — not sure where he finished in this category), Young has lost strokes versus the field with his putter nine times. Young has made the cut in his previous two trips to TPC Scottsdale — but his best result was his 26th-place finish in 2022. He settled for 64th place last year. The last eight winners here have previously finished in the top ten here — only Matsuyama fits that bill of these two pros. Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners here have finished tied for seventh place or better in one of their previous five starts — and it has been ten PGA Tour events since Young finished in seventh place or better back at the John Deere Classic in early July. Take Matsuyama (7135) versus Young (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-01-24 |
Viktor Hovland +1.5 v. Xander Schauffele | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s.
BEST BET: Viktor Hovland (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7003) versus Xander Schauffele (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:20 PM ET.
Our Best Best to win the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Hovland came into his own last year by improving his chipping and sand play — he won the Memorial and then later the FedEx Championship last summer with three victories overall on the PGA Tour. He comes into this tournament rested after opening the year with a tie for 22nd place at The Sentry. Hovland is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He ranked fifth on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranked 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Hovland ranked 10th on the tour in Proximity to the Hole from approach shots — and the last 13 winners of this tournament have finished in the top 30 in that category for the week with six of the last eight winners finishing in the top-ten for the week. Hovland also ranked fourth on the PGA Tour last year in Par-4 Scoring — and nine of the last ten winners of this event finished first or second in that category for the week. Hovland has a great track record at Pebble Beach. After winning the US Amateur Open here in 2018, he finished tied for 12th place at the US Open the next year which was the top amateur score that week. He has since made the cut in both his appearances at this tournament as a professional including a tie for 13th place last year. Furthermore, the Norwegian’s experience in Europe with the weather not always as pristine should help him prepare for the conditions this week.
Hovland is linked with Xander Schauffele for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Schauffele has one of the highest floors of all the pros on the tour — but his ceiling seems lower with it being more than 18 months since his last first-place finish. He has three top-10s in each of his three tournaments in 2024 after a tie for ninth place at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. But Schauffele lost -3.0 strokes per round in putting versus the field last week which is not a good sign for this event. In last year’s tournament here, three of the top six finishers finished seventh or betting in Shots-Gained: Putting. Schauffele only ranked 137th in Proximity to the Hole last season — so he may not be as likely to score well at this event as Hovland. Schauffele plays Pebble Beach for just the third time in his career. He finished third in the 2019 US Open here — but he settled for a tie for 66th place at the 2017 Pro-Am and he has only played the difficult Spyglass course once as a professional. Take Hovland (7003) versus Schauffele (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
02-01-24 |
Max Homa -115 v. Collin Morikawa | | 69-67 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Max Homa is who listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Homa has registered nine straight top-15 finishes after his tie for 13th place last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has gained +6 strokes versus the field per round in ten straight tournaments. Homa loves to play in his home state of California on a course with Poa Annua greens. In his 15 career starts in California, he now has 13 top 20 finishes with four top ten results and four PGA Tour victories. He comes into the event with great form after winning the Redbank Golf Challenge in November. He has finished in the top ten in ten of his last 15 events including eight top ten results in his last 11 tournaments. He enjoyed 12 top-ten finishes in 2023. He began 2024 with a solid tie for 14th place in Hawai’i at The Sentry earlier this month. Homa is reliable on these courses because of his effective ball-striking — he ranked fourth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and he was 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Homa also ranked 15th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring — and nine of the last ten winners of this tournament finished the week first or second in Par-4 Scoring. Homa has played in this tournament six times — and he has lurked in his last three appearances with a tie for 10th place, a tie for 14th place, and a tie for seventh place. Homa is also one of the best players in bad weather.
Homa is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa comes off a disappointing tournament at the Farmers Insurance Open where he missed the cut. While normally one of the most reliable players in the approach on the tour, Morikawa was shaky with his irons last week. He got a new coach last fall — so his game may be a work in progress until he demonstrates more consistency. His ball flight may not be a good fit for the wind and rain this week — while his high altitude can generate reliable results in pristine conditions, that trajectory does not play as well in the wind. Morikawa’s putting is the weakness in his game — he ranked 114th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season and the Poa Annua surfaces are considered the trickiest to master since they tend to be the least smooth when compared to Bermuda greens or Bentgrass. Morikawa finished tied for 35th place as an amateur in the 2019 US Open but he has not played Pebble Beach since — and he has never played the course as a professional in February. Take Homa (7139) versus Morikawa (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|