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T.M. Selection: Red Sox runline.

The Red Sox enter the second half as the hottest team in MLB. They're only one game back of second place New York and three of the Jays for the division lead now after nine straight wins. Lucas Giolito has gone 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA and 37 K's over his last six starts. I think he'll match Colin Rea inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value invariably swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's the case here. The value though lies in grabbing the visitors on the runline option in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Indiana.

Indiana is off three straight wins, including an 85-77 victory last night in Connecticut, unable to cover the 15-point spread. I think the Fever got caught looking ahead to this game tonight, while also looking ahead to the All Star game. And when these teams return to regular-season action next weekend, they'll do so again against each other on this same floor. This is the third game between the clubs so far this season, having split the other two. Indiana is 12-10 and three games behind New York at 14-6. New York's numbers are a bit skewed though. The Liberty won their first nine games, but have since gone just 5-6. New York has the third best three-point shooting, but Indiana counters with the third best three-point defense. These teams are evenly matched in my opinion and I'm expecting a tight battle until the end. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points!

T.M. Prediction: 83-82 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Indiana Fever.

This one sets up well for the Fever to not only win, but to do so in blowout fashion in my opinion. With nearly 75% of the public money on the home side, we're going full-on contrarian for this one obviously. Indiana has now won two in a row, most recently destroying the Wings 102-83 at home. But with two extremely tough road games in New York (back-to-back on the 16th and then on the 22nd after the All-Star break, I'm expecting Indiana to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here. They destroyed the Sun 88-71 at home back in mid-June, but didn't cover the 17.5-point spread. But that was then, and this is now. Look for Kelsey Mitchell and company to find a way to deliver a big victory here! 

T.M. Prediction: 96-70 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Mercury.

Just a really good spot for the Mercury here in my estimation. They're 5-3 SU on the road and off back-to-back home wins, most recently a 79-71 win over Minnesota. They beat Golden State by a score of 86-77 at home back in early June and I predict a similar final outcome here as well. Clearly, Golden State has exceeded expectations this year. The Valkyries are 10-10 overall and 7-3 at home, but look for the red-hot Mercury to exploit this matchup again and to not only cover, but pull off the slight upset in the process. That said, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

T.M. Prediction: 85-73 Phoenix.

T.M. Selection: Sparks.

Just a great situational play here. Connecticut is just 1-10 on the road, while LA is only 1-8 at home. The Sun though have a "look-ahead" game here vs. Indiana and Caitlin Clark on Tuesday though. LA beat the Fever 89-87 in Indian last week, but then fell to a determined Minnesota team here 91-82. The Sparks have been playing a lot better of late and I think that offensive progression continues here against the putrid Sun. Lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 92-70 LA.

T.M. Selection: Las Vegas.

A'Ja Wilson play with revenge here after a humbling 95-68 loss at Golden State as 11.5-point favorites back in June. After a poor road trip, look for the home side to boucne back here, as Golden State is still just 3-6 on the road this year. The play is on the home side to finally bounce back!

T.M. Prediction: 80-75 Las Vegas.

T.M. Selection: Mariners runline.

Of all the teams in MLB, I think that Detroit has the potential to suffer the greatest amount of regression after a super hot start. I think the same can also be said about their ace Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02 ERA). The Mariners won't be lacking motivation here after a though 0-3 showing at the Yanks this week. I like Luis Castillo (5-5, 3.31 ERA) to match Skubal inning for inning and for the Mariners to, at the very least, keep this one competitive throughout; great value on Seattle on the runline option!

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Seattle.

T.M. Selection: New York Liberty.

The Liberty will be hungry to snap a string of poor play, going just 2-5 in their last seven. New York has failed to cover the spread in nine straight as well. The Aces are off the 86-68 win at Connecticut, but with a more "winnable" game in the Nation's capital on Thursday, I think this one sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. A great "situational" play; lay the points!

T.M. Prediction: 90-76 Liberty.

T.M. Selection: Elks.

Two teams in dire need of a victory here, but I say that the home field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Elks are 0-3 SU/ATS and they'll be risking life and limb here to earn a win. They've played three tough teams though in BC, Montreal and Winnipeg. With a week off to prepare for this one, the correct call is Edmonton. Ottawa is 1-3 SU/ATS after a 29-16 loss at home to Toronto last week. Look for Ottawa to take another step back here against this desperate home side. A great overall situational play here, so grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Edmonton.

T.M. Selection: Sun.

If you're playing a really large spread like this, whether on the favorite or on the dog, you have to have a really good "situational" reason to do so. And that's the case here with this one. Las Vegas is the better team for sure, but it's still just 8-9 overall, including 3-5 on the road. And with much more high-profile games upcoming at New York and Washington, not only does this set up as natural "letdown" spot, but it's also a "look-ahead." And when those two factors combine, you invariably get a "trap game." Grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 80-76 Las Vegas.

T.M. Selection: Indiana Fever.

The Fever have won three in a row and the play with revenge after an 85-75 loss to LA here a week and a half ago. Whether Caitlin Clark plays or not, I like the home side in this one. The Sparks are without one of their main defenders in this one as well. Lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 90-73 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Argos.

The Argos looked good on both sides of the ball in their 29-16 win last week at Ottawa and I think the defending Grey Cup champs carry that momentum over here. Toronto has had to play with his backup, who has plenty of experience under center. If that's the case again here, I still like the Argos. Hamilton beat Montreal 35-17, snapping its two game slide as well, but in the Ti-Cats only road game this year, they lost 38-26 to Calgary. I think the Ti-Cats are overvalued in this road spot; grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Toronto.

T.M. Selection: Las Vegas Aces.

I like A'Ja Wilson and the Aces to take advantage of a Fever side that just won the Commissioner's Cup and which is still dealing with a semi-injured super-star in Caitlin Clark. Can anyone say letdown spot?! Look for Las Vegas to pull away for the comfortable win and cover!

T.M. Prediction: 87-76 Las Vegas.

T.M. Selection: Rangers runline.

No need to overthink this one. Baltimore managed the 10-6 win in the series-opener last night, but with its ace on the mound, I expect Texas to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Orioles hand the ball to the volatile Brandon Young (0-2, 7.11 ERA), while the home side counters with Jacob deGrom (8-2, 2.08 ERA). Enough said! Look for the revenge-minded home side to lay the hammer down in this one with deGrom on the hill!

T.M. Prediction: 6-1 Texas.

T.M. Selection: Lynx.

With the question mark to Caitlin Clark's status, the Minnesota Lynx, who are the defending Commissioner Cup Champions, can clearly "smell the blood in the water." I look for Napheesa Collier to dominate in this one and for the home side to not only win, but to do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points!

T.M. Prediction: 90-76 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Kansas City Royals runline.

Seattle is only 20-19 at home. The Royals are just 19-21 on the road, but they're 27-13 on the runline on the road. They have the far superior starter here going in Michael Wacha (4-7, 3.33 ERA), over the Mariners George Kirby (1-4, 5.40 ERA). Kirby has been worse at home, going 0-2 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA. Great value here on KC on the runline option in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 KC.

T.M. Selection: Las Vegas Aces.

Just a great revenge spot here for Las Vegas, which fell 76-70 at home to Phoenix as a 4.5-point dog in mid June, and note that the Aces are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Phoenix has been playing awesome, it's off six straight wins, but a letdown feels imminent here. No outright, but closer than expected for sure. Grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 84-82 Phoenix.

T.M. Selection: Wings.

Dallas lost here 94-86 last night to Indiana, but I like the home side to bounce back here against the Mystics. Washington is 8-8, but just 3-5 on the road. They've won three in a row, but Dallas plays with the added incentive of revenge after falling 91-88 in OT at Washington two weeks ago. Grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 84-80 Dallas.

T.M. Selection: Chicago Sky.

I base my picks on many different factors and criteria. Sometimes I keep it really simple. For me, this is a great "situational" play. The Sky are only 4-10, but they're coming off a big 97-86 win over LA as a 5-point dog and I expect them to keep that offensive momentum going here. Golden State is 7-7 overall, including 7-1 ATS at home. But now I think this spread is too large, but nearly 75% of the money is backing another Golden State win and cover. But I'm not buying it this time. With 9-6 Seattle coming to town next, I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here and takes the foot off the gas. Grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 80-77 Golden State.

T.M. Selection: LA Sparks.

Indiana was just 1-2 on its road trip, but I think it'll have trouble covering this larger spread now back at home. And with a game at Dallas tomorrow night, not only does this set up as potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead for Caitlin Clark and company. LA lost here 93-86 last year and all signs point to another competitive battle on Thursday night. Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 87-85 LA.

T.M. Selection: Las Vegas Aces.

The Sun are terrible. They're 2-12 overall and 1-6 on the road. I expect another huge collapse here against a Las Vegas Aces side that's now 6-7 overall, including 4-3 at home afer a big win over Indiana by a score of 89-81. Expect A'Ja Wilson and company to keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish in this one and lay the points with confidence.

T.M. Prediction: 100-60 Las Vegas.

T.M. Selection: Nationals runline.

Washington has been competitive and I think it'll keep being competitive here in the finale of this three-game series in LA. The Dodgers won the opener by a score of 6-5, then Washington bounced back with the 7-3 victory yesterday. I had the Nats on the runline yesterday, and I think they offer tremendous value again here on Sunday afternoon. Mike Soroka is just 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA for the Nats, but Shohei Ohtani is only 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA for the Dodgers. Clearly, Ohtani is going to immediately improve moving forward, but I still feel that he's drastically overpriced here on Sunday afternoon. The outright is possible again, but the play is on the Nats on the runline option.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Washington.

T.M. Selection: Nationals runline.

Washington is looking to avoid another long losing streak. It lost 6-5 in the opener of this one. The Nationals though are 20-16 on the road with the runline. LA is just 19-23 in trying to cover the runline at home. There's great value taking the road team on the runilne in LA so far this season, but with two evenly matched starters going H2H, I'm expecting another very tight battle here on Saturday as well (Washington goes with Irvin, the Dodgers counter with May). The play is Washington on the runline.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Washington.

T.M. Selection: LA Sparks.

The Sparks play with double revenge, most recently losing 101-78 at Minnesota last week. The Lynx are 11-1, but could be caught "looking ahead" here to a two-game Eastern road swing next week, starting in the Nation's capital. Look for the Sparks to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe and grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 83-80 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: BC Lions.

The Lions are 1-1 after beating Edmonton at home 31-14 in Week 1, only to then fall at Winnipeg last week by a score of 30-24. Now back at home, note that BC is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Bombers hit the road for the first time this year, and I think they'll struggle in this difficult venue. A great overall "situational" play here backed by a strong trend, and while I do think an outright victory is very possible for the Lions, my official call is to grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 25-24 BC.

T.M. Selection: Thunder.

With Tyrese Haliburton questionable, I look for SGA and company to go straight for the jugular. The Pacers have been unbelievable this year, but their story comes to an end this evening. The only hope that Indiana has is if Pascal Siakam goes for 40 or more. And I just don't see that happening against the League's No. 1 defense, a unit that "key in" on Siakam with Haliburton either out, or severely injured. Everything points to a blowout of epic proportions, so lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 120-102 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Connecticut Sun.

The Sun are only 2-9, but they've responded well in the past for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU losses in a row. After an 88-71 loss at the Fever, I'm expecting the home side to, at the very least, keep this very competitive until the final horn. Phoenix is 8-4 and for sure the better team overall, but the Mercury have been pedestrian on the road with a 2-2 record. And with a game at 10-1 New York TOMORROW NIGHT, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead postiion as well! And when you add those two factors together, you get "TRAP GAME!" Grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 80-75 Phoenix.

T.M. Selection: Las Vegas Aces (WEST-CONF GOY)

While an outright win isn't completley out of the question, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. I base my picks on many different things. Some times it's about scheduling. Other times I take into account revenge, or just what I perceive to be great line value. This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Las Vegas falls to 5-5 after going just 1-3 in its last four. Minnesota is 10-1 and off a 101-78 victory over LA. With a rematch against LA here though on Friday, I think Minnesota finally comes in complacent here and takes the foot off the gas. Look for A'ja Wilson and the visiting side to play with desperation and to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The play is on Las Vegas!

T.M. Prediction: 84-78 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Phoenix Mercury.

The Mercury are averaging 79.9 PPG, while allowing 78.3. They are only 1-2 on the road, but they're 7-4 overall. Las Vegas is 3-1 at hoeme and 5-4 overall. The Aces average 88 PPG, while allowing 88.3. Phoenix has the edge on defense and its healthier right now as well. Expect the Mercury to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points with confidence.

T.M. Prediction: 90-74 Phoenix.

T.M. Selection: Calgary.

The Argos fell 28-10 at Montreal last week and I think the offense will stall again here against Calgary. The Stamps are off an impressive 38-26 home win over Hamilton and everything points to this offense rolling again. Grab the point/s!

T.M. Prediction: 30-20 Stamps.

T.M. Selection: Dallas Wings.

Dallas is coming off six straight losses, but I expect the desperate Wings to keep it close vs. a struggline Aces side that's off back-to-back losses. With 7-4 Phoenix coming to town on Sunday, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead as well. These two bottom-feeders are evenly matched and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points!

T.M. Prediction: 86-84 Las Vegas.

T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals.

Just a complete mismatch on the mound here. Whoever the Brewers decide to trot out, I'm basing my pick 100% around the Cardinals' starter Sonny Gray, who is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this year. The Cards will be leaning heavily on their ace today after four straight losses. This is an "action" play on St. Louis, based around the current form of its starter Gray this evening!

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cards.

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers.

Indiana won Game 1 and I believe it has a legit shot at winning Game 2. I had a 5% play on the Pacers in Game 1 and the analysis I posted in that pick basically also directly pertains to this Game 2 pick as well (if you haven't had a chance to read that analysis, I'll post it here now: While I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything points to a a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in my opinion. Indiana has consistently been underrated thoughout these Playoffs, both by the oddsmakers and their opponents. That's the case here again in Game 1. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are going to be able to keep their team competitive late, so I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can!) Grab as many points as you can (but don't be shocked by another outright!) 

T.M. Prediction: 115-114 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Edmonton Elks.

This is the first time in CFL history that two Canadian QB's have faced off in a season-opener against each other. The Lions go with Nathan Rourke, who struggled after signing with BC midway last season. BC has won seven of the last eight in the series, so to say this is a "revenge" game for Edmonton would be an understatement. Elks QB Tre Ford is going to be able to keep his team competitive. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points!

T.M. Prediction: 

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

While I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything points to a a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in my opinion. Indiana has consistently been underrated thoughout these Playoffs, both by the oddsmakers and their opponents. That's the case here again in Game 1. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are going to be able to keep their team competitive late, so I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Seattle Storm.

Both teams have struggled this season, but Dallas much more so. The Wings are just 1-6 overall, including 1-3 on the road, while the Storm are 3-4 overall and 2-2 at home. The Wings lost 79-71 to the Storm at home back in mid May, and everything points to an even bigger blowout here in my opinion. Seattle will be desperate to snap its own three-game slide and won't be "looking past" the lowly Wings tonight. Lay the points with confidence, because everything points to the Storm rolling in this one!

T.M. Prediction: 90-76 Seattle.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

Being successful in the Playoffs is about making adjustments. Karl Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and the rest of the Knicks have done that extremely well over the last three games. Time for another Game 7 in my estimation! For the Pacers to be successful at this level, they need to get truly gargantuan games out of both Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton. Yes, the Pacers are 29-11 at home, but they're just 21-25-1 ATS. The Knicks are 24-17 SU on the road. The League would LOVE it is somehow New York could figure out a way to come back and steal this series. It COULD happen. That said, the official call for this play is to grab up as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 110-108 New York.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win, and that's why I'm recommending to grab up as many points as you can. The Knicks are struggling to cover spreads right now, just 5-5 ATS in their last ten, while the undervalued Pacers continue to not only win, but do so easily, as they're 8-2 ATS their last ten overall. I think Indiana has a legit shot at winning this one outright, but my official call is to grab the points with the Pacers!

T.M. Prediction: 112-111 New York.

T.M. Selection: Thunder.

The Wolves managed the 143-101 win in Game 3, but they then lost a heart-breaker by a score of 128-126 in Game 4. I believe the Wolves now have another letdown on the road here. Minnesota played poorly at OKC over the first two games, losing 114-88 in Game 1 and then 118-103 in Game 2. Anthony Edward's supporting cast has been extremely inconsistent and I see that being an issue again here in Game 5. Lay the points and expect a blowout!

T.M. Prediction: 120-100 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Rangers on the runline.

Toronto is now 10-16 on the road after last night's 2-0 loss, while Texas is 18-11 at home (including going 17-12 ATS). We really respect what Paxton Schultz has done for Toronto in the limited amount of time he's had this year, going 0-0 with a 2.53 ERA and a 13:3 K:BB. He's been called up from Triple-A again to make this start and I feel regression is imminent in this difficult road venue. The home side counters with the clearly superior Tyler Mahle (5-2, 1.80 ERA), who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox in his last outing. No need to hit the panic button though if you're a Rangers fan obviously, as it was the first time Mahle had allowed three or more runs in a start this season. Look for the veteran to continue the hot start to his 2025 campaign and for the Rangers to not only win tonight, but to do so in blowout fashion.

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Texas. 

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

Karl Anthony-Towns exploded for 20 points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and New York came from 20-points behind to win Game 3 by a score of 106-100 and I expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Everyone looked significantly better, but star Jalen Brunson uncharacteristically struggled through his worst game of the Playoffs. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting Brunson to bounce back big here with his performance. With another win the Knicks are back on track and take control of this series. Getting points here feels like a gift, so grab as many as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 110-109 New York.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

I believe that home court advantage DOES matter in this series. The Thunder rolled to two straight victories at home, but Anthony Edwards and the Wolves looked great in their 143-101 destruction in Game 3. Now getting points here in Game 4, it feels like we're getting a "gift" almost. The wrong team is favored here. The Thunder were great on the road this season, but they're just 4-6 ATS in their last ten overall, while Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten. I'm banking on the hungry home side to find a way to deliver the goods here in Game 4 as well. That said, grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 119-100 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Dallas Stars puckline.

Jake Oettinger is a really good goaltender and I believe he'll keep his team competitive in this game late, and because of that, I have no issues at all laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Connor McDavid is the best player on the ice, but Dallas has already done a great job of slowing him and Leon Draisaitl down. The Oilers' top line is near-impossible to slow down, but Dallas counters with more depth, with  Mikko Rantanen, Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund leading the way. In a contest that I see being decided late, or in extra time, I'm grabbing Dallas on the puckline option.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Dallas.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

The Knicks fell apart in Game 1 after having a big lead, but I don't see lightning "striking twice" in the Big Apple for the Pacers. You have to hand it to Tyrese Haliburton and company, but I'm predicting an imminent letdown for the visitors. Despite the win the Pacers are still just 20-20 on the road, and despite the loss, Jalen Brunson and the Knicks are STILL 27-14 at home. Look for the revenge-minded home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 119-106 NY.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota.

I'm not counting out Anthony Edwards and company yet. The Wolves looked good in the first half, but were unable to continue the pressure in the second half. I think Minnesota will keep it competitive in both quarter this time around. OKC lost to Denver at home in Game 1 in the second round, so the Wolves have the blue-print on what to do. Look for Rudy Gobert to play a bigger role here in Game 2 for the Wolves and for the desperate visiting side to do more than enough to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover with all of these points.

T.M. Prediction: 108-106 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

These teams are evenly matched in my opinion. Both teams have been undervalued by the bookmakers throughout the playoffs, but Indiana has a legit shot at taking this game outright in my opinion. Indiana had no problem with Giannis, and it destoryed the No. 1 team in the league in Cleveland. New York's competition has been suspect, as Jason Tatum injured himself and we'll never really know if Jalen Brunson and company would have been able to pull off the series victory if the Boston star had played. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 113-111 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

These teams were extremely competitive throughout the NBA's regular season, going 2-2 against each other. I'm expecting another competitive matchup here in Game 1, as well as this series. Minnesota rolled through its first two opponents and comes in completely rested. OKC needed 7 gruelling games to get by Denver. The Thunder have looked fantastic during these playoffs at times, but also bad in other spots. I think Game 1 will be another "bad" spot for the Thunder and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming "right down to the wire." Grab the points, Wolves are the correct call!

T.M. Prediction: 108-107 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Giants on the runline.

Kyle Bubic (4-2, 1.66 ERA) gets the nod for the Royals, and as gooas he's been to open the 2025 campaign, I'm still giving the nod to the home side's Robbie Ray (6-0, 3.04). Ray owns a tiny 2.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Royals, while Bubic is 0-1 with a 2.03 ERA in three career appearances vs. the Giants. KC has been much better at home though, going just 9-13 on the road, while the Giants are 16-7 in San Francisco. Bubic is the one about to take a major step back here, as I expect Ray to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. I look for San Fran to win by a sizeable margin, so the play is the Giants on the runline option.

T.M. Prediction: 6-1 San Francisco.

T.M. Selection: LA Angels runline.

The Angels won yesterday's opener by a score of 6-2 as -300 underdogs. They have a legit shot here in my estimation to do it again on Saturday, but overall I feel the value is to instead grab the visting side on the runline option. The Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw, who makes his 2025 debut. He made just seven starts for the Dodgers last year. He had a successful stint in Triple A, finishing with a 3.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 12 innings, but I still favor Angels' starter Tyler Anderson, who is 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA, who has conceded three runs or less in every outing so far this year. Great value on LA on the runline in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Angels.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

While I clearly feel that Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Much in the same way that the Golden State Warriors are crumbling and stumbling without Stephen Curry, also lost to injury, I believe Boston will suffer a similar fate with their captain now out indefinitely. The defending champs are admittedly deep, and they'll be playing with desperation and a chip on their shoulder. But Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have consistenly been underestimated throughout the Playoffs so far, and I think that's ultimately once again the case here. Grab as many points as you can.

T.M. Prediction: 104-103 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma City Thunder (WEST-CONF GOW)

This has been a back-and-forth series, but it appears to me as if Nikola Jokic is now running on fumes after having to once again do most of the heavy lifting for the Nuggets in this series. OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six, but I'm expecting Shai and the rest of the home side to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish in Game 5. The Nuggets are still just 22-23-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Thunder are still 31-12-2 ATS at home. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 121-100 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

I really do feel that New York has a legitimate shot at winning this game outright, but in the end, I'll recommend grabbing the points. Very much like the Pacers, who took both games in Cleveland, then dropped Game 3 at home, only to then take Game 4 last night quite easily as an underdog, I'm expecting a similar thing to happen here in The Big Apple after the Knicks dropped their Game 3 matchup to the C's by a score of 115-93. Previous to that, Jalen Brunson and company had won three straight. Now I think they're going to bounce back big here. Note as well that the Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. It's now the Celtics who are completely overvalued in this spot. Grab the points, Knicks dominate!

T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Capitals puckline.

While I absolutely feel that an outright win is going to be the most likely outcome in this contest for the Capitals, at this price, I think the correct call is to grab the visitors on the puckline. Carolina blanked Washington 4-0 in Game 3, but just like after losing Game 1 by a score of 2-1 in OT, the Capitals would then respond with a convincing 3-1 win in Game 2, and I believe they'll now do so again here in Game 4. The Hurricanes were strong at home, finishing 31-9-1, but Washington enters as no slouch on the road at 25-13-3. Look for Alexander Ovechkin and this "stalled out" Capitals offense to finally get things "put into gear" here in Game 4. And while I do indeed for sure think the Capitals can win this one outright, as I stated at the start, my official call is to grab the value here, which I feel is the Capitals on the puckline.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Washington.

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers.

Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers finally had a letdown after four straight Playoff victories, inlucindg the first two in this series, but I believe that the home side has a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Darius Garland returned for the Cavs, but note that the Pacers have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten following a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. To be successful in the Playoffs, you have to make adjustments from game-to-game, both as a player, and as a handicapper. This one has the feel of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to win, so I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota.

Golden State survived the Rockets and it looked great in its Game 1, 98-88 upset victory at Minnesota, but without Stephen Curry in the line-up, the Warriors went on to predictably stumble in Game 2 with the Wolves' dominant 117-93 win (I had Minnesota in Game 2!) I just don't see anything changing here. The Wolves looked dominant in LA, going 2-1 and they're not going to be intimidated here in Golden State either, especially without Steph in the line-up. Jimmy Butler is going to stumble, and Anthony Edwards is going to have his biggest game of the series, and the Wolves are not only going to win Game 3, they're going to do it in blowout fashion. Lay the points, because the Wolves roll to victory!

T.M. Prediction: 110-90 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers.

While I clearly believe that an outright victory is possible, let's grab the points in this one. Cleveland was unbelievable in the regular season, and while it looked good in its opening round win over a depleted Miami team, Indiana's depth and aggressive defensive play have exposed a lot of holes in the Cavaliers' attack. Cleveland has had to deal with injuries to key players of late, but the Pacers remain relatively healthy. Nearly 65% of the money is on the Cavaliers, but I say the value lies in the undervalued home dog. As mentioned above, I think that Tyrese Haliburton and company can win this one outright, but the official call is to grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Wolves on the spread.

Favorites in the NBA Playoffs have had a difficult time this year, but now I believe that the Wolves will lay the hammer down on the Warriors in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup after Golden State shocked Minnesota in the 99-88 outright victory as a 6-point underdog. So what's the deal in Game 2? How could the Wolves possibly be favored by significantly more here in Game 2 despite getting dominated in Game 1? Easy answer: Warriors' star player Stephen Curry is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Suffice it to say, with the heart and soul of their team no longer shouldering the load and mental edge, I believe the Wolves can "smell the blood in the water." Minnesota and Anthony Edwards had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night as well, and I simply don't see that happening twice. This is a golden opportunity for Minnesota to regain control and momentum, and I expect them to do that here in Game 2, not only but winning large. Lay the points, Minnesota is the play!

T.M. Prediction: 111-80 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Rays runline (IL GOM)

After dropping the first two games of this three-game interleague series by scores of 8-4 and 7-0, I like Tampa to, at the very least, keep this one tight until the end and to earn the comfortable cover on the runline option, which I feel is offered at a great price here. Jesus Luzardo is 3-1 with a 1.94 ERA for the Phillies and it's difficult to say anything negative about the 27-year-old, so I'm not even going to bother. He's simply in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" in my estimation vs. the now desperate home side. Note as well that Luzardo has struggled big time against the Rays throughout his career, going 0-3 with a ballooned 6.20 ERA over four career starts. The Rays go with Ryan Pepiot, who is 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA, and he's never faced the Phillies. Either way gentlemen, I say that Tampa is the correct call and that the Phillies get caught looking ahead to their series at Cleveland starting on Friday. That said, at this price, my offical call is to grab Tampa on the runline option.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

The Warriors come in dog tired after their emotional 7-game opening round series win over the Rockets and we're expecting the visitors to get caught "flat footed" here against a confident home side that destroyed the Lakers. The Warriors core is great, but Golden State is not very deep. The Wolves are deep and rested and I'm expecting them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points and expect a complete ATS blowout!

T.M. Prediction: 112-98 Minnesota. 

T.M. Selection: Reds runline.

I feel Cincinnati has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright, but I feel more comfortable laying reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Brady Singer 4-1 (3.24 ERA) gets the nod from us over his counterpart, Atlanta's AJ Smith-Shawver (1-2, 4.26.) The Reds are playing well, 9-7 on the road and they come in undervalued in this one. Great value here on the Reds on the runline option!

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cincinnati.

T.M. Selection: Golden State.

Big games require big cojones, and no one has bigger balls than Stephen Curry in a Game 7! All kidding aside, I say it's the Rockets who now come in dog-tired here after back-to-back wins. Golden State has lost three straight against-the-spread, but looking back finds the Warriors 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row. They play with the double-revenge factor as well. These moments are dominated by players like Curry and good as Fred Van Vleet and company have appeared over the last two games, I expect the cream to rise to the top in this one. Grab the point, but don't be shocked by an outright!

T.M. Prediction: 104-99 Warriors.

T.M. Selection: Rays runline.

The season has just begun and there's a lot of baseball still to be played, but Tampa won't want to waste these early-season divisional matchups either, especially after having previously dropped four in a row. Tampa is now 15-18, while New York is 19-14. The Rays are getting better starting and bullpen pitching right now and I think that carries over in the finale of this three-game set. Taj Bradley (2-2, 4.58 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays, while the Yanks counter with Will Warren (1-1, 5.63.) Bradley is 1-2 with a 3.44 ERA in three career outings vs. the Yanks. Warren has yet to pitch out of the fifth inning this year. Bradley has been up and down with his performance this year, but I still give him the big advantage in this starting pitching matchup. The Rays got a big win last night and I believe that momentum carries over. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa. 

T.M. Selection: LA Clippers.

I believe Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are "out of gas." Jokic has been carrying his team throughout this series (and his career!), but after LA's crucial 111-105 home win in Game 6, I'm expecting Kawhi Leonard and company to keep the good times rolling. It seems like "everyone and their dog" is on Denver now, as nearly 75% of the early public money has been thrown at the inconsistent home side. LA has more depth and is better defending the perimeter though, And as I outline as well, I believe that Jokic is now "gassed." While I clearly believe the outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the Clippers!

T.M. Prediction: 105-100 LA.

T.M. Selection: Tampa runline.

After dropping the opener of this series yesterday by a score of 3-0, I like Tampa to, at the very least, bounce back and keep this one close. Tampa is now desperate to snap an overall four-game slide. Here's a good opponent to get back on track against, as Yanks' starter Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 5.52 ERA), has been hit-or-miss with his ocnsistency from game-to-game. Same thing with Rays' starter Zack Littell (1-5, 5.03 ERA), who actually is coming off his first win after allowing two runs over five innings over the Padres on Sunday. Look for Littell to continue to progress and for the hungry visitors to at least earn the cover with the runline.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets with the points (WEST-CONF GOM)

While I do think that an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the visiting side. While the Rockets are a decent 23-18-1 ATS on the road this year, Golden State is just 18-24-2 ATS at home. And now I once again feel that the Warriors are overvalued in this position. Houston's depth and perimeter defense can into play in Game 5 and I think Fred Van Vleet and company can keep that positive momentum rolling here. The Warriors are now desperate to get the job done here, but I say that Stephen Curry is "out of gas." Again, I'm not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

T.M. Prediction: 103-102 Golden State.

T.M. Selection: Rays runline.

This is an important early season divisional battle. I think the Rays have a legit shot at winning this one outright. Tampa is 5-4 on the road, while New York is 10-5 at home. Off three straight home losses to the Royals, clearly the Rays are desperate to snap the slide. New York went 1-2 at Baltimore earlier this week. Ryan Pepiot (2-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) has been solid for Tampa and he's coming off a gem, giving up one run over six innings in a victory over San Diego. I look for him to carry that momentum over here. And the home side counters with Max Fried (5-0, 1.19 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), who has been outstanding to open the 2025 campaign. In fact, a little TOO outstanding in my estimation, as these early sparkling numbers simply are unrealistic to maintain much longer moving forward. Regression is now imminent for Fried and I look for Pepiot and the Rays to take advantage.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota Timberwolves spread

The road team is not being given enough respect here. The Timberwolves were down by double digits in the 3rd quarter of Game 4 but came all the way back for the big home win. Minnesota continues to dominate with an advantage on points scored inside the paint and they also have a ton of confidence being up 3-1 in the series and coming off the huge comeback win. The Lakers are playing in a pressure cooker right now in LA with those original hopes of Doncic and LeBron leading them to glory now quickly fading away. Now it looks like this team will not even get out of the first round. The Timberwolves won Game 4 even though their big minutes guy off the bench (DiVincenzo) and 2 of the starters (Gobert and Conley) combined to go 5 of 22 from the field! When 3 of the 6 most important players have games like that and yet the team still wins the game, that says a lot! What is also says is that the Lakers are in trouble! That is what I am counting on here and I fully expect a road upset win here but will grab the half-dozen points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 107-102 Minnesota

T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets spread

The home team is not being given enough respect here. The Clippers were down by 20+ points during the Game 4 loss to the Nuggets and that game was in LA. The game ended up being a tight finish but that is also leading to line value here. Had that game ended a blowout like it appeared it was headed toward, the line here likely would be different. As it is we are getting line value here with the home dog Nuggets. If they get another big lead like they had in Game 4 on the road they are certainly unlikely to relinquish it in their own building. That is what I am counting on here and I fully expect a solid home win here but will grab the couple points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 110-102 Denver

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers run line

Even with some uncertainty about who the Dodgers will start here, I like fading Alcantara in this spot. Also, the Dodgers off the 1-run win last night but should have won by much more and that is why we get some value here with plus money on the run line.  LA is 13-3 at home this season while the Marlins are 4-8 on the road this season.  The Marlins have allowed 37 runs last 5 games and Miami's Alcantara has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.2 innings over his last 3 starts so his form is certainly in question right now.  The Marlins have lost each of his last 2 starts by a margin of 3 or more runs and this looks like another one of those the way he is going. LA has the stronger overall lineup and is at home and look for a big home blowout here. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Los Angeles Dodgers

T.M. Selection: Minnesota Wild puck line

Minnesota has played the Golden Knights very tough so this seems like an awfully generous offer here to be able to have the Wild +1.5 goals at a very reasonable price as low as -135 as of mid-day Tuesday. The one game that Vegas won by a 2-goal margin in this series was a 3-2 game before a very late empty net goal gave the Golden Knights the puck line cover. Also, the Wild are off a 4-3 OT loss in Game 4 but won the two prior games by a 5-2 final each time. The point is that the value is quite big here on the Wild when you consider these factors. At 1.5 goals the Wild could easily already be 4-0 in the series in terms of covers and they should again get at least the puck line cover here on Tuesday.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Minnesota or 3-2 Vegas (either covers for us)

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat spread

The Heat are down 3-0 in the series but this Game 4 is about professional pride as much as anything else. Even if Miami loses this game I don't see them going down without a fight. Miami got ripped in Game 3 and that insures a huge effort here in Game 4 after it was a franchise-worst playoff loss in Game 3. Miami has a good history this season of bouncing back when off ugly low-scoring efforts. Look for the Heat to respond big here after being held under 90 points in the prior game. We have seen this time and time again from Miami when off ugly efforts and also lets not forget they finished the regular season with a very strong run in home games. One bad loss is not going to change everything and the Heat are now undervalued here in this spot. Take advantage by grabbing the generous points. 

T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Miami 

T.M. Selection: Denver spread 

These are very generous points here and I am going to challenge the Clippers to win this by more than 7 points. The Nuggets just blasted in the prior game and that is the kind of ugly loss (margin of 34 points) that will generate a big response from a high quality team in the next game. Remember the Nuggets were the World Champs just two years ago. There is a lot of pride in this franchise and we will witness their A game here after the B2B losses. 

T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Denver

T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic spread These are very generous points here and I am going to challenge the Celtics to win this by more than 4 points on the road. Yes, Boston is a fantastic team but Game 2 was a single-digit margin game most of the entire game and, of course, remember that this game was at Oklahoma City. Down 2-0 in the series and finally back home, you are going to see the best game you will see from Orlando in this series and, for my money, that is enough for the all-important cover here. Similar to what we saw with Memphis yesterday in this spot and they might have won outright had Morant not gotten hurt. So look for a similar big game performance here from the Magic at home! T.M. Prediction: 101-97 Orlando

T.M. Selection: Memphis Grizzlies spread

This is just too many points here and I am going to challenge the Thunder to win this by double digits on the road. Yes, OKC is a fantastic team but Game 2 was a single-digit margin game very late in the 3rd before the Grizzlies had a horrible 4th quarter. Remember this game was at Oklahoma City. Down 2-0 in the series and finally back home, you are going to see the best game you will see from Memphis in this series and, for my money, that is enough for the all-important cover here. 

T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat spread

Miami was only down 8 with 7 minutes to go in the game in the Game 1 match-up. Truly the Heat were inside the big number most of the game so I feel we have value here with a playoff-tested and battle-tested Heat group that is also very well-coached. Miami was outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc so those 5 extra made threes were the Cavs is what resulted in a 21 point win instead of a 6-point win. The zig-zag theory in NBA playoffs has shown time and time again that these things even out. I am looking for the Heat to absolutely give the Cavs all they can handle in this one. Give me the double digits here! 

T.M. Prediction: 108-104 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Montreal Canadiens spread (puck line +1.5)

Montreal lost in OT in Game 1 and they got a lot of confidence in battling back from a 2-0 deficit to force OT. The Canadiens have a great shot at the upset here in Game 2. They outshot the Capitals in Game 1 and played a very solid all-around game. Even if they fall short of the upset, it is a big boost to have the +1.5 goals on our side. Montreal has only 1 loss by more than 1 goal in last 11 games so this play is testing a 10-1 run for the Canadiens at +1.5 goals. The Capitals have only 2 wins by more than 1 goal in last 13 games so that also puts this one in a 2-11 spot to fade Washington. All of the above a key reason I am going with a very big play here on the underdog. 

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 game (no matter which team wins a 3-2 gets the cash for +1.5)

T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic spread

Orlando has some hope here as they were leading game 1 by 1 point at the half before Boston pulled away big in the 2nd half for the cover. The Celtics outscored the Magic by 18 points from 3 point land so I like the value that is giving us here as that should even out some from the 6 extra threes that Boston made in Game 1. The points is that "inside the arc" the Magic actually outscored the Celtics by 3 in Game 1. Give me the double digits here! 

T.M. Prediction: 99-98 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons spread

1) The Pistons looked great before a disastrous 4th quarter against the Knicks. Detroit does not have the playoff experience level that New York does but that loss will serve them well in that regard. They bounce back strong here. 

2) Detroit had turnover problems in game one but has not been the norm for the Pistons this season and they should turn it around here. That was an unusual results Saturday that is unlikely to be repeated. The Pistons led Saturday's game by as many as 9 points so getting 7 with them again here is a big value. 

3) The Knicks were only 3-3 last 6 home games prior to that huge comeback win and the value is significant here as the Pistons also had won 3 straight over the Knicks by an average margin of 8 points per game prior to the Game One loss. This is the old zig-zag theory but yes we like playing the opposite of the Game One result when the parameters all line up and this one fits the bill!

T.M. Prediction: 112-109 Detroit.

T.M. Selection: Ottawa Senators

We have seen it time and time again with the Maple Leafs in terms of struggling in the post-season. They have a ton of pressure on them here. Toronto is on home ice and favored quite big and I like the value of the puck line with the Senators as this way we don't get burned on a 1-goal loss. The Sens have come a long way and they also have had success against Toronto so this is not a good match-up for the Leafs either. Ottawa won all 3 regular season meetings and by an average score of 3 to 1. Also, only 6 of last 25 (24%) Maple Leafs games have been Toronto wins by more than 1 goal! Ottawa went 8-4 last 12 games and, out of last 14 games only had 2 losses by more than 1 goal!  

T.M. Prediction: 2-2 in regulation and then a 3-2 final one way or the other

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers runline.

1) Such a huge overall difference between these teams with a team considered a World Series favorite hosting a team that is one of the worst in the league again this season. The Rockies also continue to have such massive road struggles each season.

2) Bobby Miller makes his first start this season and struggled last season but he now takes on a Rockies team that struggles to score runs when on the road. Miller can get going again here.

3) Colorado is 3-14 overall and 1-10 on the road this season. Even with a pitcher, German Marquez, that can be good at times, they just can not keep up here. The Rockies just do not have a strong enough lineup and they are road-adverse plus their bullpen has struggled. Colorado's first loss this season was by 1 run but all 13 since then have been by 2 or more runs! 10 of 13 Dodgers wins by at least 2 runs and this one will be too!

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Dallas Mavericks spread

A lot of value with the points here as the Mavericks are undervalued. They are much healthier than they have been in awhile and have had a chance to fully adjust now to life without Doncic. Also, the Kings are without Monk and his contributions will be missed in a key game like this. Even though Sacramento won all 3 regular season meetings, of course this game is priced this way for a reason. You would think the Kings would be a bigger favorite considering the season series sweep and home court edge here. But they are a smaller favorite and that is another reason I am backing the dog here as that is where sharp money is likely headed. Don't let the line fool you on this one! I expect the Mavericks to win outright but will grab the points for added value here in the event they fall a bucket or two short. 

T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Dallas.

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers runline.

1) Such a huge overall difference between these teams with a team considered a World Series favorite hosting a team that is one of the worst in the league again this season. The Rockies also continue to have such massive road struggles each season.   

2) Landon Knack had a bad first start this season but he showed what he could do in last season and now takes on a Rockies team that struggles to score runs when on the road. Knack can get going again here.  

3) Colorado is 3-13 overall and 1-9 on the road this season. Even with Feltner on the mound they just can not keep up here. The Rockies just do not have a strong enough lineup and they are road-adverse plus their bullpen has struggled. Colorado's first loss this season was by 1 run but all 12 since then have been by 2 or more runs! 9 of 12 Dodgers wins by at least 2 runs and this one will be too!

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Atlanta Hawks spread

1) A lot of value with the points here as the Magic are not strong offensively. Orlando has a tendency to win a lot of low-scoring grinders.   

2) Orlando started the season strong and finished the season strong but in the middle was a brutal long-term 17-31 SU stretch. It is hard to trust a team that has a run like that. The Hawks did win 4 of their last 6 games this season and a team with Trae Young is always a dangerous underdog in a team projected to be tighter.  

3) The issue for the Magic here is they are being overvalued because they are at home here. They did win their final 2 home games of the season but this was after a 2-8 SU run. The point is that being priced for home court edge means more underdog value because the home court edge is NOT a big one for the Magic. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-106 Atlanta.

T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates runline.

1) Brad Lord is a rookie for the Nationals and he lasted only 3 innings in his first ever MLB start last week. When he exits this game he will be followed by a Washington bullpen that has the highest ERA in the major leagues.  

2) Paul Skenes is off an unusually tough start at home but he is 12-4 with a 2.14 ERA in his young MLB career and has a .196 batting average against. I expect the Nationals to struggle against him in this tough match-up on the road.   

3) Washington is 1-5 on the road this season. Pittsburgh has had a tough start to this season but is happy to be back home where they have won 3 of last 4 games. The Pirates have struggled at the plate this season but did go score an average of 5 runs per game in their first 4 at home before lower-scoring games in the last two. Perfect spot here for them to bounce back. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Pirates.

T.M. Selection: Maple Leafs.

The Hurricanes are locked into their seeding for the post-season already and Carolina truly seems over-valued here considering that fact. Both teams in a B2B and that is not easy but Toronto is still the more motivated team here. The Maple Leafs are trying to hold off the Lightning for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Toronto getting +1.5 goals is a huge value here. The Hurricanes had lost 4 straight before their big win over the Rangers yesterday. Toronto has only 3 losses by a multiple goal margin in last 16 games. I am grabbing the puck line value here with the highly motivated underdog on the road in this one. I expect underdog upset but want the +1.5 if the game swings the other way late.

T.M. Prediction:  Toronto 4-3

T.M. Selection: DENVER

Rough scheduling spot for Memphis here in a B2B and off a big home game versus the Timberwolves last night. They now had to travel to Denver and they are not only in B2B but 3rd game in 4 nights. Factor in also having to play in high altitude for this one and the set up is perfect for the Grizzlies to get rolled. The Nuggets are strong at home traditionally and are set up well here to dominate as they can build off a win at Sacramento which snapped their losing skid. We lay the points with confidence here.  

T.M. Prediction: 129-114 Nuggets.

T.M. Selection: NEW YORK KNICKS

Knicks getting 4.5 is a huge value here. New York is off a loss but does have Brunson back now.  The Knicks lost in OT to Boston so certainly no shame in that. New York is 5-1 last 6 times they have entered a game coming off a loss. The Pistons are also off a loss but they are slumping so it is hard to expect a bounce back from Detroit here. The Pistons have now lost 4 of 5 and the only win was against a Toronto team that is now 30-50 on the season. Detroit has its work cut out here just to win let alone cover the number here. Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 116-112 Knicks.

T.M. Selection: Atlanta

Huge game for the SE Division title and love having the dog here. Both the Hawks and Magic have sights set on winning this division and Orlando is a little over-valued here as a result of being at home. The road team has actually won both games this season and it would not surprise me to see that run make it 3 straight for the road team here. Either way I like having the +4 points also plus Trae Young is listed as probable for this game so that is a plus for Atlanta as well. Orlando is off B2B wins but is actually 1-4 SU last 5 times when entering a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. Orlando won at Atlanta in the 2nd meeting in February and now it is the Hawks turn to return the favor and win on the home floor of the  Magic. The situational run involving the Magic sees Orlando lose again and improve that "play against Magic" spot to 5-1 (83%). Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 115-110 Atlanta

T.M. Selection: UCF

I know the Knights game was an OT win yesterday but this is the final game of the season. They will dig deep to again bring their best effort here. The Cornhuskers made a ridiculous percentage of threes in their win over the Wildcats yesterday. Also, Nebraska had some fortunate match-ups with short-handed teams in this tourney prior to beating Boise State yesterday thanks to ridiculous shooting from downtown! The Golden Knights are a very strong team that only had 3 players go more than 30 minutes and one of those was a reasonable 36 yesterday. Two guys went more but, as I stated above, this is the final game of the season and you leave it all on the floor. I am more impressed with who UCF faced to get here and also they seem like a team of destiny with the OT win last night and with starting the tourney with a win by 1-point. Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 82-75 UCF

T.M. Selection: Houston

Too many points here. The Cougars have been so strong this season. The Blue Devils have the high-scoring offense that gets all the attention but this Houston defense could be a big difference maker here! Also, the only losses Houston has this season have been by a small margin of 5 or less points. Can Duke do something that no other team has done to Houston in nearly 40 games this season? I am banking on a NO to answer that question! The fact is the Cougars have an elite defense that can frustrate Duke. I have not hesitation in challenging Duke to win this by 6 or more points as no team has done that against the Cougars this season. The Blue Devils have allowed 75 ppg last 3 games. The Cougars have allowed 56.5 ppg in the tournament! Give me the stronger defense with Houston as I like their chances of an upset here and will take the points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 71-66 Houston

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma City

The Thunder have WON 18 of 19 games including 11 in a row. Oklahoma City has also won an incredible 11 straight road games! Each of their last 5 wins have been by at least 16 points so laying 6.5 points here means we are testing a 5-0 (100%) situation. Rockets might be without Dillon Brooks too unless he appeals his one-game suspension. The home team has won all 4 meeting this season but you know this game is priced this way per the odds makers strong assessment of this one. The Thunder roll on the road here as they continue to look like the most complete team in the NBA. The Rockets generally don't fare as well off blowout wins in which they score a ton of points and that is what just happened against a bad Jazz team Wednesday. Now they face the best team in the NBA and will possibly be without Brooks too and this should be a road rout the way I see it! Thunder make it 6 in a row in terms of wins by at least 7 points!

T.M. Prediction: 123-107 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: New York

Even though the Knicks are in a B2B they did not to go too hard to beat the downtrodden 76ers last night. Also, though Karl-Anthony Towns was out, this likely had to do more with resting him for tonight's game so his knee could be as strong as possible for tonight's game. Brunson is still out but NY has been adjusting well in his absence. Even if Towns does not play here, the Knicks should stay within single digits here but I do expect KAT to be out there. New York is 5-1 L6 games and has "only the Hawks" on deck and I expect the Knicks A-game here! The Cavaliers are only 4-5 SU last 9 games and if you look at Cleveland's last 17 games, only 4 were wins by double digits. This is too many points as the Knicks are likely viewing this as a statement game and also they have double revenge here.     

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Cleveland

T.M. Selection: Colorado

Villanova is a mess right now as they just hired Willard after the firing of Neptune a few weeks ago. There is a lot going on in this Wildcats program right now and I just don't think they are going to be nearly as jelled as the Buffaloes here. Colorado had a very ugly season but did win 3 of last 4 games and 5 of last 10 games and they came here because they want to make something happen. They believe they can still make this a season to remember right here, right now in this tourney. I like their chances of an upset here and will take the points on offer.   

T.M. Prediction: 74-70 Colorado

T.M. Selection: Golden State

Even though the Warriors won the most recent meeting they lost by 51 points here a little before Christmas. Golden State, as everyone knows, has been a much different team since the Butler trade. I am confident the Warriors come in here and get some revenge as Memphis is a mess since the crazy firing of their head coach. They have lost 3 straight games now and the Warriors come into this one having won 18 of 23 games. Two teams going in opposite direction and I am sure GS still wants some payback IN Memphis for that disaster in December. Big win here on the road!    

T.M. Prediction: 125-112 Golden State

T.M. Selection: Arizona State

The Sun Devils have a 13-19 record so many are jumping on the Cornhuskers here just as I expected. We have excellent value here with an Arizona State team that is absolutely capable of the upset win over Nebraska and should at least manage a cover! The Sun Devils went 9-2 SU this season against teams not from their Conference. Of course I am aware that ASU had a very rough losing run to end the season but they are here to make some noise in this tournament. They didn't come here without motivation. This is a new beginning and I like their non-conference performance this season. The Huskers also were strong in non-conference action but struggled in their conference. The difference here is they are the ones over-valued in this spot. Only 1 big win in their 17 games and in the other 4 wins in that 5-12 stretch, the average MOV was only 6 points. They will struggle to pull away from the Sun Devils here. Big value with the points here.  

T.M. Prediction: 78-76 Arizona State

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers

The Thunder are a great team but this is too many points. Indiana is 8-2 last 10 games and the only two losses were by a combined 8 points! The Pacers confidence sky high after scoring 162 points in a win over the Wizards in most recent game. Oklahoma City has plenty of big-margin wins recently but there was a SU loss and a couple tighter wins in there and I just can't see them completely destroying this Pacers team the way they have been playing. Also, Indiana lost at home to the Thunder in the first meeting between these teams and they are looking for some payback here. They may not quite get it but this one likely does go down to the wire so the points are a huge value. 

T.M. Prediction: 121-119 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: Texas Tech

People will say the Red Raiders should not be here but the fact is Texas Tech will be riding a wave of momentum here after that dramatic come from behind OT win versus Arkansas. Sometimes a team can reach a point where it feels like nothing can stop them and that is where the Red Raiders are now. They are at their peak and fearless and that means the Gators will have a fight on their hands here. Florida barely got by UConn in Round 2 and this similarly looks like a very tough match-up for the Gators. The value with the Red Raiders and their solid frontcourt is huge here. 

T.M. Prediction: 79-78 Florida

T.M. Selection: Purdue

The Boilermakers are a solid #4 seed and truly deserve even more respect than they are being given here. Purdue is 24-11 this season and, in those 35 games, they have only 7 losses by more than 9 points. Granted, Houston is a great team but the Boilermakers faced plenty of strong teams all season long in the Big Ten. That said, getting the big points with Purdue is a huge value based on the fact 8 of last 10 Cougars wins have been a single digit margin! This is a game that certainly looks like yet another Houston game decided by just single digits and I have this one going down to the wire. The Boilermakers, with the inside-out combo of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, have enough scoring prowess to give this strong Cougars defense some problem. As for the Houston offense, it can get sluggish at times and that is another reason 80% of their last ten victories have been by a single digit margin!

T.M. Prediction: 66-65 Houston

T.M. Selection: Golden State

The Warriors are angry off the embarrassing loss at Miami in Jimmy Butler's return there as the Heat shot a ridiculous 17 of 25 from deep! Now Golden State will take out their anger on a Pelicans team that will be missing both Williamson and McCollum here. New Orleans continues to give up huge points in their losses and Golden State will not only take advantage and score a ton (especially with Curry likely back) , the Warriors D will also be dialed up a notch after that loss at Miami. Big points to lay on the road but GSW should win this by 20+ points! 

T.M. Prediction: 123-100 Golden State

T.M. Selection: Maryland

The Terrapins are a solid #4 seed and truly deserve even more respect than they are being given here. Maryland is 27-8 this season and, in those 35 games, they have never had a loss by more than 6 points. Granted, Florida is a great team but the Terrapins faced plenty of strong teams all season long in the Big Ten. That said, asking the Gators to do something that no team has done in 35 tries this season against Maryland is still a big ask. Getting the points with Maryland is a huge value based on the above as well as the fact this is a game that certainly has upset potential. 

T.M. Prediction: 80-78 Maryland