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T.M. Selection: Houston / Florida UNDER.

This could work into a grinder. The Cougars offense can bog down at times but their defense is so good and will frustrate the Gators. Also, with this one being the Championship Game you know each team will definitely have their defense dialed up to their top level. Houston has allowed 68 points or less in 17 of last 18 games. The line on this game is at 1. That means unless Houston does something they rarely do (allow more than 68 points), you are looking at a game in the low to mid-130s here and that is what I have forecast. As for Florida, they have allowed 73.4 ppg in this tourney but remember that the Cougars will slow down the pace here. So the point is the Gators playing the type of defense they have thus far (or likely even stronger) means that mid-60s would seem to be about the max a slower-paced Houston team would get to. Considering the above factors and a generous total posted on this game, you can see why I am dead set on the under here.  

T.M. Prediction: 66-65 Houston

T.M. Selection: UCF

I know the Knights game was an OT win yesterday but this is the final game of the season. They will dig deep to again bring their best effort here. The Cornhuskers made a ridiculous percentage of threes in their win over the Wildcats yesterday. Also, Nebraska had some fortunate match-ups with short-handed teams in this tourney prior to beating Boise State yesterday thanks to ridiculous shooting from downtown! The Golden Knights are a very strong team that only had 3 players go more than 30 minutes and one of those was a reasonable 36 yesterday. Two guys went more but, as I stated above, this is the final game of the season and you leave it all on the floor. I am more impressed with who UCF faced to get here and also they seem like a team of destiny with the OT win last night and with starting the tourney with a win by 1-point. Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 82-75 UCF

T.M. Selection: Houston

Too many points here. The Cougars have been so strong this season. The Blue Devils have the high-scoring offense that gets all the attention but this Houston defense could be a big difference maker here! Also, the only losses Houston has this season have been by a small margin of 5 or less points. Can Duke do something that no other team has done to Houston in nearly 40 games this season? I am banking on a NO to answer that question! The fact is the Cougars have an elite defense that can frustrate Duke. I have not hesitation in challenging Duke to win this by 6 or more points as no team has done that against the Cougars this season. The Blue Devils have allowed 75 ppg last 3 games. The Cougars have allowed 56.5 ppg in the tournament! Give me the stronger defense with Houston as I like their chances of an upset here and will take the points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 71-66 Houston

T.M. Selection: Cal-Irvine.

The Anteaters impressed me with their comeback win against a solid North Texas team. They were down by 15 in first half of that game and then outscored the Mean Green 60 to 43 the rest of the way. Cal Irvine is solid defensively and will give Chattanooga trouble here. The Mocs just have not faced a defense with this caliber and it will be reflected in the way this game plays out as Chattanooga will struggle to make enough shots to keep up. The Anteaters also should hold a rebounding edge in this match-up based on what these teams have displayed this season. Last but not least, the Mocs defense is not a strength. Helped by the schedule to make it this far in the tournament, things become real tough for Chattanooga here and their defense (a weakness) will not be able to get enough stops here as UC Irvine earns the NIT Championship  

T.M. Prediction: 79-68 Cal-Irvine

T.M. Selection: Colorado

Villanova is a mess right now as they just hired Willard after the firing of Neptune a few weeks ago. There is a lot going on in this Wildcats program right now and I just don't think they are going to be nearly as jelled as the Buffaloes here. Colorado had a very ugly season but did win 3 of last 4 games and 5 of last 10 games and they came here because they want to make something happen. They believe they can still make this a season to remember right here, right now in this tourney. I like their chances of an upset here and will take the points on offer.   

T.M. Prediction: 74-70 Colorado

T.M. Selection: Arizona State

The Sun Devils have a 13-19 record so many are jumping on the Cornhuskers here just as I expected. We have excellent value here with an Arizona State team that is absolutely capable of the upset win over Nebraska and should at least manage a cover! The Sun Devils went 9-2 SU this season against teams not from their Conference. Of course I am aware that ASU had a very rough losing run to end the season but they are here to make some noise in this tournament. They didn't come here without motivation. This is a new beginning and I like their non-conference performance this season. The Huskers also were strong in non-conference action but struggled in their conference. The difference here is they are the ones over-valued in this spot. Only 1 big win in their 17 games and in the other 4 wins in that 5-12 stretch, the average MOV was only 6 points. They will struggle to pull away from the Sun Devils here. Big value with the points here.  

T.M. Prediction: 78-76 Arizona State

T.M. Selection: Michigan State / Auburn OVER.

With all due respect to the defensive capabilities of both these teams, this total is simply too low. Michigan State has scored an average of 77.5 ppg last 8 games. They have never scored less than 71 in any of those games and keep in mind they are a 5 point dog to Auburn in this game. The Tigers are averaging 83.6 ppg on the season and have averaged 81 ppg so far in this tourney. I am expecting this one to get near 160 and yet the total is in the 147 range. That big variance is why this is a very strong totals selection for me and one that should dominate the number. In a game that likely has some margin late (Auburn favored by 5) we also could see plenty of late scramble points with late fouling and corresponding free throws for the team leading and plenty of threes being fired away for the team trailing. This one should at least get well into the 150s. Over! Over! Over!

T.M. Prediction: 81-76 Auburn.

T.M. Selection: Texas Tech

People will say the Red Raiders should not be here but the fact is Texas Tech will be riding a wave of momentum here after that dramatic come from behind OT win versus Arkansas. Sometimes a team can reach a point where it feels like nothing can stop them and that is where the Red Raiders are now. They are at their peak and fearless and that means the Gators will have a fight on their hands here. Florida barely got by UConn in Round 2 and this similarly looks like a very tough match-up for the Gators. The value with the Red Raiders and their solid frontcourt is huge here. 

T.M. Prediction: 79-78 Florida

T.M. Selection: Purdue

The Boilermakers are a solid #4 seed and truly deserve even more respect than they are being given here. Purdue is 24-11 this season and, in those 35 games, they have only 7 losses by more than 9 points. Granted, Houston is a great team but the Boilermakers faced plenty of strong teams all season long in the Big Ten. That said, getting the big points with Purdue is a huge value based on the fact 8 of last 10 Cougars wins have been a single digit margin! This is a game that certainly looks like yet another Houston game decided by just single digits and I have this one going down to the wire. The Boilermakers, with the inside-out combo of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, have enough scoring prowess to give this strong Cougars defense some problem. As for the Houston offense, it can get sluggish at times and that is another reason 80% of their last ten victories have been by a single digit margin!

T.M. Prediction: 66-65 Houston

T.M. Selection: Maryland

The Terrapins are a solid #4 seed and truly deserve even more respect than they are being given here. Maryland is 27-8 this season and, in those 35 games, they have never had a loss by more than 6 points. Granted, Florida is a great team but the Terrapins faced plenty of strong teams all season long in the Big Ten. That said, asking the Gators to do something that no team has done in 35 tries this season against Maryland is still a big ask. Getting the points with Maryland is a huge value based on the above as well as the fact this is a game that certainly has upset potential. 

T.M. Prediction: 80-78 Maryland

T.M. Selection: UAB

We have seen what North Texas has been doing in this tournament. Memphis also was the AAC representative in the Big Dance and was a #5 seed that got upset by hot shooting. Tulane will be playing USC in the new College Basketball Crown Tournament. The Blazers beat the Mean Green twice this season (including Conference Tourney) and beat the Green Wave once too. The point is that the Blazers seem really undervalued here and I was more impressed with the AAC then the Big West this season. The Anteaters really take a step up in class in this tournament with this game and I believe UC Irvine has finally met their match. Thinking upset here but will grab the generous points in this one. 

T.M. Prediction: 82-79 UAB

T.M. Selection: Bradley

The Braves offer fantastic line value here at home for this one in NIT action Tuesday. Bradley off the road win at George Mason and now is back home where they have had a huge season and have won 4 straight and 14 of 17. Also, 8 of last 9 Braves home wins by 4 or more points! Also, Chattanooga was just 2-4 in non-conference road games this season prior to that miracle 3-OT win at Middle Tennessee State to open up the NIT tournament action. Also, the Southern Conference is not as strong as the Missouri Valley Conference and the Mocs will have their hands full on the road here. Also, look at bench play to be a factor here as Chattanooga got only 15 of 87 points from their bench in their win over Dayton while the Braves Corey Thomas is feeling it right now and helped lead the way for the Braves bench to produce 28 of 75 points in their win AT George Mason and they roll again here at home! 

T.M. Prediction: 83-70 Bradley

T.M. Selection: St Mary's

The Gaels narrowly missed a cover they should have had in round one. Similar to Michigan, the Gaels have shown a knack for coming up with big comebacks in games and also being able to excel in tight finishes against high-quality teams. That means facing a very strong Alabama team will not phase St Mary's. The Gaels only losses have been by very slim margins this season and they have upset potential here against the Crimson Tide. The 5 losses for St Mary's this season by an average margin of 4 points. Alabama actually was trailing Robert Morris with under 7 minutes to go in that game and the Crimson Tide were favored by about 20 points in that one! The Colonials had 78 FG attempts compared to just 58 for the Tide. The point is that Alabama easily could have ended up losing that game were it not for hot shooting. The Gaels are a live dog here!  

T.M. Prediction: 76-75 St Mary's

T.M. Selection: Kentucky

The Illini are a quality team but also known for inconsistency. The recent results leading into this Round 2 match-up have resulted in an over-inflated assessment of Illinois. Kentucky is undervalued here and the SEC was so strong this season. Getting the higher seed as a dog here is a value I will not pass up on. The Wildcats have allowed 64 points or less twice in last 5 games whereas Illinois always seems to give up big points. I will take the better D and the points for added value. 

T.M. Prediction: 88-82 Kentucky

T.M. Selection: UCLA / Tennessee OVER.

With all due respect to both defenses, this total is simply far too low. Tennessee has scored an average of 77 ppg last 7 games. They have never scored less than 70 in any of those games. The Vols have scored at least 70 in 11 of 13 games. The Volunteers have allowed 72 ppg last 7 games! The Bruins have won 12 of 16 games and scored at least 69 points in 12 of the 16 games. After the big win over Utah State in which they held the Aggies to an absurd total, there has been an over-reaction in the markets. In their 8 games preceding that one the Bruins allowed 71 ppg. I am expect this one to get near 150 and yet the total is near 130. That big variance is why this is a very strong totals selection for me and one that should dominate the number. Over! Over! Over! 

T.M. Prediction: 77-71 Tennessee.

T.M. Selection: Maryland.

Grand Canyon comes from a much weaker conference. People remember their performance in the tourney last year but this Lopes team just not on that level. This Grand Canyon team just does not have the defensive capability to slow down Maryland get enough stops here. The Terrapins, from the much stronger conference, will pull away as this game goes on as they win by a double digit margin to advance.

T.M. Prediction: 85-65 Maryland

T.M. Selection: North Carolina.

The Tar Heels showed in their First Four blowout win that they are out to prove they do belong in the big dance. After such a dominating win, the momentum is sky high for North Carolina right now. Ole Miss does not have enough to stand in the way of this Tar Heels mission. Remember that UNC almost upset Duke in the ACC Tourney. They can dominate here and the money line is a value price for us to take advantage of.  

T.M. Prediction: 83-73 North Carolina

T.M. Selection: Vanderbilt.

Many saw what Gonzaga did to Georgia yesterday and will think this will be the same since St Mary's is also a WCC team and Vanderbilt is also a SEC team. However, the way these teams match-up compared to that match-up yesterday is much different. Yesterday we saw a 10-7 upset with Arkansas over Kansas and this should be a case of deja vu though I am taking the points as an added precaution. But, unlike Gonzaga, the Gaels won't hit 55% overall and 12 of 20 threes! 

T.M. Prediction: 70-65 Vanderbilt

T.M. Selection: Nebraska-Omaha

St John's just over-valued here. The Red Storm, it goes without saying, are truly a very strong team. However, the Mavericks can score well and have the talent to hang around in this game. I see the Red Storm pulling away some of course but truly just not able to get that absolute major blowout win. Look for a final between 8 to 12 points as Nebraska-Omaha surprises with their compete level and shooting abilities.

T.M. Prediction: 79-69 St John's

T.M. Selection: Missouri.

Drake likes to play slow but Missouri will force the tempo here. The Bulldogs just do not have the offensive capability to keep up here. The Tigers, from the stronger SEC, will pull away as this game goes on as they win by a double digit margin to advance.

T.M. Prediction: 73-60 Missouri

T.M. Selection: Tennessee

This one is different. Normally I will stay away from very large favorites like this but I foresee a complete mismatch on the floor in this one. Wofford just does not have the talent level to compete here. Even the Volunteers 2nd tier plays have the ability to dominate the Bulldogs here. Tennessee just too strong and deep for Wofford to hang around. Interesting game for perhaps 10 minutes and then it is blowout city! 

T.M. Prediction: 80-53 Tennessee

T.M. Selection: San Jose State.

The line is moving toward Loyola-Chicago here but they are less rested than the Spartans. The Ramblers went to the Semi-Finals of their Conf Tourney and were a win away from playing for a shot at the Big Dance. That could leave them drained here emotionally. The Spartans situation was different as they were knocked out in the Quarter-Finals and they play in the MWC. That was a top-heavy conference and, in other words, San Jose State truly never felt they had a chance to make it to the Big Dance. Being at home in the NIT is something the Spartans are content with and they most definitely are ready to make some noise in the tourney beginning with a home win here! Underdog outright upset in this one!

T.M. Prediction: 73-68 San Jose State

T.M. Selection: Middle Tennessee.

The line is moving toward Chattanooga here but the Mocs play in a weak Southern Conference. They won the regular season title but lost in the Conf Tourney which cost them a chance at the Big Dance. Not only is this demoralizing, the Mocs also played in a conference that ended up being represented in the NCAA Tourney by a 19-15 Wofford team! The Southern Conference is not on par with Conference USA and plus the Blue Raiders are at home for this one. MTSU was 11-4 at home this season and, again, they faced tougher competition than this Chattanooga team. Liberty won CUSA and beat a Big 12 team in the regular season plus the Flames will be facing Oregon in the Big Dance. The CUSA teams at a higher level than the Southern Conference. MTSU also beat a Big Dance team this season and also almost beat Liberty as well. The Blue Raiders get it done at home here.  

T.M. Prediction: 81-73 Middle Tennessee

T.M. Selection: Wisconsin.

There is something very special happening with the Badgers right now! This Wisconsin team is on fire and loaded with confidence! John Tonje had another huge game in their win over Michigan State yesterday and this is after it was also raining threes for Tonje and the Badgers in their win over UCLA the prior game! I just don't see the Wolverines stopping them. Michigan did win in Madison this season but the Badgers had an unusually poor shooting performance. That is unlikely to be repeated here as Wisconsin is feeling it right now! They are in the zone and they catch the Wolverines off a highly emotional last second win over Maryland. How much will Michigan have left in the tank here after that epic finish yesterday? Not enough the way I see it. Badgers get it done! I do expect Wisconsin to cover the number here also but feel the best value is with the money line so we don't have to worry if the Badgers win by a very slim margin.  

T.M. Prediction: 79-70 Wisconsin

T.M. Selection: Jackson State.

The Tigers just rolled Bethune-Cookman and this is a bargain price for the money line on Jackson State in this one. Lay it! They have won 8 straight games and they catch the Hornets managing to avoid Southern because the Jaguars got upset by Grambling. Now Alabama State is off a win versus the Tigers of Grambling but these Tigers of Jackson State are even tougher. Jackson State and Southern went a combined 29-7 in SWAC action in the regular season. Alabama State did beat Southern by 1 point in each meeting but lost by 7 to Jackson State. Hats off to the Hornets for those tight regular season wins and their two tight wins in this tourney but their luck runs out here. The Tigers not only have won 8 straight, average MOV 12 points! Same result here! 

T.M. Prediction: 76-64 Jackson State

T.M. Selection: Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks are catching too many points here. Possible upset but definitely grabbing the generous points on offer. The Gamecocks are on a 13-4 SU run and only 1 loss was by more than 5 points. So if you gave Jacksonville State +6.5 points in each of last 17 games the Gamecocks would have produced a 16-1 ATS record! Liberty having a great season but only 2 of last 6 Flames games were wins by more than 5 points. This one goes down to the wire. Give me the points!

T.M. Prediction: 66-65 Jacksonville State

T.M. Selection: Texas Tech.

Yesterday I was on Arizona as they were playing with revenge and were off a loss and the Wildcats got the job done for us to improve to 7-1 L8 times when coming off a loss. Now the roles are reversed today and I go against the Wildcats! That's because the Red Raiders are the ones playing with revenge here. I know Texas Tech is off a tight win over Baylor but they never trailed in that game and led by as many as 15 points and holding on for a character-building tourney win will only serve the Red Raiders even better here in this spot! The Red Raiders did beat the Wildcats in Lubbock earlier in the season but then they lost at Arizona despite having 70 FG attempts compared to just 58 for the Cats. Texas Tech made only 14 of 37 two-pointers and will shoot much better here as they get their revenge. Truly this is a bargain price for the money line on the Red Raiders in this one. Lay it!

T.M. Prediction: 81-72 Texas Tech

T.M. Selection: Oregon.

The Ducks are catching too many points here. Oregon has won 8 straight games after doing it again versus Indiana yesterday. The Ducks last 10 games feature an 8-2 run with 2 losses by 6 or less points. You have to go all the way back to January to find the last time the Ducks have lost a game by more than a 6 point margin. Michigan State is 8-3 L11 games but only 5 of those 11 games were Spartans wins by more than 10 points. Look for a much closer finish here than most are expecting. Oregon had 61 field goal attempts compared to 54 for the Spartans when these teams met at Michigan State this season and the Ducks lost by 12 but led by 14 at the half. Oregon has proven they can hang with this team even in East Lansing and now they get them on a neutral floor. Give me the points!

T.M. Prediction: 72-71 Michigan State

T.M. Selection: Arizona.

Kansas in the tough back to back spot after going to Overtime to get past Central Florida yesterday. The Jayhawks had 4 players total at least 36 minutes in that game and the 4 averaged 38 minutes because of the OT being factored in. So, in this case, is as if those 4 guys played essentially a full 40-minute game yesterday and now have to come back out today and play a fully rested Arizona team. This is a lot to ask. Also, Arizona ready to get revenge for the 7 point loss to Kansas that wrapped up their regular season. The Wildcats are 6-1 L7 times when coming off a loss. With this game taking place in Kansas City, there is extra line shading toward Kansas but Arizona is clearly the better team this season and are rested and playing with revenge. Considering facts like these above, this is a bargain price for the money line on the Wildcats in this one. Lay it!

T.M. Prediction: 81-71 Arizona

T.M. Selection: Bowling Green.

The Falcons are catching too many points here. Bowling Green won 7 of last 10 regular season games and the largest margin of the 3 losses was 7 points. Now the markets have pushed this line up to a dozen points and it is simply too much. All the pressure is on Akron to perform here after their huge regular season including 17-1 in the MAC. When these teams met in the regular season the Zips won by only a 3-point margin! Akron finished the regular season with a blowout win over Buffalo but their 6 games leading into that one (5-1 SU) did not feature a single win by more than 10 points. Look for a much closer finish here than most are expecting. 

T.M. Prediction: 77-73 Akron

T.M. Selection: MERRIMACK.

Sacred Heart in the tougher back to back spot and, before beating Fairfield, was 0-3 L3 away from home and allowed 85 points once and 90 points twice! Merrimack has won 3 of 4 and - with exclusion of overtime points - has allowed 66 points or fewer in 12 of 14 games and 15 of 18. Allowing 57.8 points there is just no comparison in the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Consider facts like these above, this is a bargain price for the money line on the Warriors in this one. Lay it! 

T.M. Prediction: 75-64 MERRIMACK

T.M. Selection: GONZAGA.

This line tells you everything you need to know. Gonzaga 14-4 in WCC games this season. St Mary's 17-1 in WCC games this season. Even with this the Bulldogs were set as 5 point favorites in this one. Someone knows something as you likely heard this expression in the past. Even so, the markets have been fooled and the line already came down some on the spread. This has opened up value here on the money line with it now in a reasonable enough range to make the investment that way with this one. Remember too that St Mary's is ranked and Gonzaga is not. Also, the Bulldogs have double revenge from losing both regular season games. The markets might be fooled here, but I am not and I see the Bulldogs getting their revenge. Lay it! 

T.M. Prediction: 74-64 GONZAGA

T.M. Selection: Texas A & M Corpus Christi

This early game Monday immediately caught my attention. The Islanders shoot 49% from the field compared to just 44% for Northwestern State. The Demons and Texas A & M Corpus Christi finished tied in the Southland Conference standings this season but Northwestern State won just 3 of 10 in non-conference games. The Islanders won 8 of 13 in non-conference games. This says a lot about the overall strength of these two teams. Also, the Islanders have won each of last 7 meetings between these schools and all 7 wins by at least 4 points! I am testing that 7-0 run here! 

T.M. Prediction: 70-58 Texas A & M Corpus Christi.

T.M. Selection: Drexel.

This early game Sunday immediately caught my attention. Towson is barely favored in this Coastal Athletic Association game even though the Tigers went 16-2 in CAA games and the Dragons went just 9-9 in CAA games this season. Drexel in line for the outright upset the way I see it but I will take the 2.5 points being offered. The Dragons have been red hot and have won 5 straight games after their big win over Elon. Towson finished at the top of the CAA but one time they had to go to OT to beat Drexel and then they won the 2nd match-up by just a single point. The Dragons are just 1-5 SU last 6 games against the Tigers and the lone win was in OT. However, Drexel was so close in both games against Towson this season and I am not going to be fooled by the line in this one. I sense an upset here. The Dragons 46% from the field compared to just 42% for Towson. 

T.M. Prediction: 66-58 Drexel.

T.M. Selection: Duquesne.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, St Louis has the better record and is at home and having a strong season. However, the Dukes are off a home loss to a strong VCU team and are on a perfect 3-0 run in games when coming off a loss. Also, the road struggles of Duquesne SU hide the fact that all their conference road defeats have been tight losses. All but one of them were by less than 7 points. Yes, the biggest margin of any A-10 road loss for the Dukes was 7 points. In the other 5 road losses the average margin was only 3.6 points and all 5 were decided by 6 or less points! St Louis has lost 6 of 11 games. The Billikens last 9 games have featured only 2 wins by more than 2 points! The Billikens had a chance to move past Dayton in the standing but lost to the Flyers earlier this week and that lets the air out of the balloon for this St Louis team. They are now essentially locked into their position in the standings and simply are thinking ahead to conference tournament time. Grab the big points here as this one likely comes down to the final possession!

T.M. Prediction: 70-68 Duquesne.

T.M. Selection: ILLINOIS.

The Illini are getting healthy again and are well worth the price here. They've got recent big wins over strong teams like Michigan and Iowa and they should also be able to take care of business against Purdue here at home. The line on this game is low enough that the money line is reasonable enough (-180) to go that route. The Illini will take advantage of a Boilermakers team that has only been mediocre on the road all season. Purdue enters this game on a 3-game losing streak in road games. In their home finale and facing a team that struggles on the offensive end when traveling, as well in some other key defensive categories, the Illini take advantage of the Boilers road struggles and notch a victory to wrap up their regular season schedule at home.  

T.M. Prediction: 86-74 ILLINOIS

T.M. Selection: Wichita State / Rice OVER.

Wichita State is off a low-scoring loss at North Texas (tough defense!) and they scored only 66 points in the defeat. Rice is off a loss at UTSA and they managed only 56 points! Both teams off unusual low-scoring results and I believe that is keeping this total too low and we have big value here as a result. The Owls, all season long, have shown they respond well on the offensive end when off a lower-scoring loss. This has been the pattern all season and this is also the home finale for Rice so I am confident about the effort they will bring here at home. The Owls, the 4 times when off a loss scoring 64 or less points, have averaged 76 points in their next game. The Shockers, before the loss to Mean Green, were averaging 73 ppg last 6 games. Rice has allowed at least 80 points in 4 of last 5 games and with this situation being a good one with both teams off low-scoring losses, this one has the makings of a high scoring game getting into the 150s in my estimation.

T.M. Prediction: 77-76 Wichita State.

T.M. Selection: HUSKIES.

Marquette would like revenge but Connecticut is not an easy place to play for visitors. In fact, the Huskies have lost here just two times this entire season. UConn already won at Marquette earlier this season and the Huskies only two home losses this season were to the two teams that are currently the top two teams in the Big East. This is a huge game for Connecticut as they can move into a tie with Marquette in the Big East standings and the Huskies know their season finale is an easy home game versus cellar dweller Seton Hall! Marquette, on the other hand, has Big East leader St John's to close out their season! Golden Eagles off a road win at Georgetown but this followed 3 straight losses in road games. As mentioned previously, the Huskies have not even lost 3 home games all season long! I am not going to pass up this value on a host favorite and this one has home blowout written all over it. Lay the price!  

T.M. Prediction: 78-67 CONNECTICUT

T.M. Selection: South Carolina.

The Gamecocks have an ugly record but they have won each of last two games on their home floor. They are looking to finish the season strong and have a road game up next so this is their home finale. That being said, South Carolina can be sure to go all out here in their finale on this floor for this season. The Bulldogs have been playing with pressure because they are a bubble team. Now they are off B2B big wins but the pressure is building up even more now as a result of those wins. Georgia was just 4-10 in SEC games before these consecutive wins and they have not won 3 straight since the SEC portion of their schedule got underway. I don't see that changing here either! Home court is the difference maker here and the home dog gets it done!

T.M. Prediction: 74-63 South Carolina

T.M. Selection: Vanderbilt. The Tigers are off a big home win but are only 3-4 SU last 7 on the road. Missouri is facing a Vanderbilt team focused on revenge here. The Commodores lost at Missouri earlier this season and will be going after payback here! Vanderbilt is 6-6 last 12 games and the impressive thing about this is that 9 of last 11 games have been against ranked teams! That said, coming off B2B wins over ranked teams and feeling as confident as ever, the Commodores get their revenge here. Vanderbilt is 5-1 L6 home games including 4 wins over ranked teams including multiple highly-ranked teams. The Commodores, right now, are tough to beat anywhere and this is particularly true on their home floor. Home court is the difference maker here and the home dog gets it done! T.M. Prediction: 82-75 Vanderbilt

T.M. Selection: New Mexico State.

The Aggies are running red hot and I view this as a major value at home with this line rather low. This is a revenge game for Middle Tennessee State but that does not mean the Blue Raiders automatically win! In fact, in this case all it means is more line value for us keeping this line lower than it should be. The Aggies have won 3 straight games and have been great defensively with an average of only 56 ppg allowed in their last 5 games! Compare that to an MTSU team that is allowing 77 ppg last 5 games! Big difference! Yes Middle Tennessee State has some better numbers on the offensive end but this is the time of year that defense wins games as things tighten up heading toward March crunch time! The Aggies had 9 steals in the first meeting compared to just 2 steals for the Blue Raiders and I expect strong defense to again be the difference in the rematch. Per all of the above and including fantastic home team line value, you can see why the home team is the bet here! 

T.M. Prediction: 74-65 New Mexico State

T.M. Selection: BYU.

The Cougars are running red hot and I view this is a major value on the road with this line rather low. BYU has won 8 of 10 games and that includes B2B wins over ranked teams. Brigham Young has scored 85 ppg last 4 games. The Sun Devils will not be able to keep up with the red hot Cougars even though they are at home. Arizona State is off a win but was on a 2-11 run before this victory. ASU is on an 0-7 run in home games and averaging only 67.6 ppg in the most recent 5 home games in that losing streak. With Cougars averaging 85 ppg last 4 games you can see why the road team in the bet here! 

T.M. Prediction: 79-70 BYU

T.M. Selection: TCU / West Virginia OVER.

TCU is off a loss at Cincinnati and they scored only 63 points in the defeat. West Virginia is off a loss at Texas Tech and they managed only 51 points! Both teams off unusual low-scoring results and I believe that is keeping this total too low and we have big value here as a result. The Mountaineers had a low-scoring win at home when they hosted Cincinnati last week but this was after WVU had B2B home games (and 3 straight games overall) total at least 130 points. The Mountaineers have revenge from a 5-point loss at TCU in the first meeting this season. The Horned Frogs will again be tough to slow down here however. Before the loss at Cincinnati, TCU won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 70 points in those 5 W's. I would say the confidence of these Frogs is still running high. Overall, in terms of TCU point totals, 5 in a row have totaled 134 points or more and with this situation being a good one with both teams off low-scoring losses, this one has the makings of a high scoring game getting into the 130s in my estimation.

T.M. Prediction: 73-66 West Virginia.

T.M. Selection: Utah Utes.

Upset alert here. Central Florida is at home but the Knights are struggling badly and I expect the Utes to find a way on the road in this one. Utah is off B2B wins and that included knocking off a ranked Kansas team. UCF has lost 7 straight games and their defense has been horrid. The Knights have allowed 87 ppg during this 7 game losing streak. The Utes have won 4 of last 7 games allowed just 71 ppg in this 7-game stretch. You can see why we are riding high with the road dog Utes in this one! Upset likely but grabbing the points in the unlikely event we need them for the cover. 

T.M. Prediction: 82-77 Utah.

T.M. Selection: Brigham Young University.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Arizona has the better record and is at home and having a strong season. However, the Cougars are surging right now on a 3-game winning streak and have won 7 of 9 games and are playing their best basketball of the season at the moment! One of the two losses in this 9-game stretch was at home to the Wildcats so this is also a revenge game for BYU. They will make the most of this opportunity. Arizona had lost B2B games prior to winning at Baylor earlier this week. Brigham Young's last 3 wins included dominating wins over Kansas State and Kansas and they come into this game with confidence. The Cougars were outrebounded by 15 in the home loss to the Wildcats last month. This is not typical as they are a decent team in terms of rebounding. You will see a different level of effort from BYU in the rematch. Grab the big points here as this one likely comes down to the final possession!

T.M. Prediction: 78-77 Arizona.

T.M. Selection: Youngstown State.

The Penguins are off a huge win at Horizon League leaders Cleveland State. While that may make it seem like this is a flat spot for Youngstown State, the reality is that home court and a fierce late season battle for the top spot in the Horizon means there will be no loss of focus here. Adding to the value on the Penguins here is they have revenge for a loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee earlier this season by double digits. Like Youngstown State, the Panthers have been playing well also but UW-Milwaukee's road wins this season have come only against weaker teams in the conference. Until the Panthers can proven they can win a road game against one of the better teams in the Horizon League, they truly seem like a must-fade in a spot like this. With the line in the -1.5 to -2 range overnight, the best value for my money is on the money line in this spot. I lay the price with confidence and the -125 range seems more than reasonable here as home court and revenge lead the way to victory for the host Penguins in this one!  

T.M. Prediction: 80-70 Youngstown State

T.M. Selection: Wichita State.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Florida Atlantic has the better record and is at home and having a strong season. However, the Shockers are surging right now on a 4-game winning streak and playing their best basketball of the season at the moment! The Owls have a big game on deck at 1st place (and ranked) Memphis in another AAC game this weekend. Wichita State has won 4 straight games and their last 4 losses were all tight games decided by a margin of 5.5 points and that is another reason the big value is with the underdog here. The Shockers have not had a blowout loss in any of last 9 games! FAU has the better American Athletic Conference record this season but these two teams have equal overall records on the season. This is another reason I see value here. Also, the Shockers are seeking revenge from losing both meetings last season including one in overtime! Grab the big points here as this one likely comes down to the final possession!

T.M. Prediction: 77-76 Florida Atlantic.

T.M. Selection: Portland.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Saint Mary's is at the top of the West Coast Conference and having a huge season. However, the Gaels have a massive game against 2nd place Gonzaga up next and the Bulldogs are rivals of Saint Mary's. I just can't foresee the Gaels being fully focused on the Pilots here and that leaves the backdoor open for a cover here late if we need it. Honestly I have a strong feeling that Portland is inside this inflated number all the way. The Gaels have only 4 wins by more than this number this season! The Pilots have a little extra confidence right now as they are off B2B wins and have won 5 of 9 games overall. Also, only 2 of last 10 Portland games have been losses by more than 25 points. I expect this one to be decided by only about a dozen as the set-up is perfect with Saint Mary's already peeking ahead to their showdown with rival Gonzaga. Grab the massive points here! 

T.M. Prediction: 75-63 Saint Mary's.

T.M. Selection: Boston College.

The Eagles are having a tough season but they have been on the cusp of victory so many times in recent weeks. Catching Virginia Tech off huge rivalry game with Virginia should be the perfect time for Boston College to finally get over the hump. The Eagles last 6 games have featured an 8-point loss at NC State plus a home win along with 3 of 4 other games being OT defeats! There were 6 overtimes in those 3 OT losses! This brings about an extra hunger for a team and the Eagles also have revenge from a loss in the last meeting between these teams. Virginia Tech is 1-5 SU the last 6 when they are off the rivalry game with Virginia. Coming off a tough loss to the Hokies, the Cavaliers struggle again here! The Cavs have lost 5 of 8 games and a trip up to a desperate Boston College side after losing their rivalry game (again) is going to be tough on this Virginia Tech team. 

T.M. Prediction: 75-67 Boston College

T.M. Selection: Kansas State.

Superb spot for Kansas State. The Wildcats off a loss which ended a 6-game winning streak. Kansas State will be in full-on bounce-back mode here! Utah is off a win which followed B2B losses and having lost 5 of 7 games. The Utes have been cold and the Cats have been hot and the value is here particularly because this game is at Utah. The home court factor is the only reason the Wildcats are a dog here. Utah off a big win over a ranked Kansas team which was a rare big game win for these Utes. Kansas State, on the other hand, defeated 4 ranked teams in its 6-game winning streak before the loss to Brigham Young. The Utes started the season 8-2 but have gone just 6-9 since then and had only one winning streak (3 games) in this 15-game stretch. You can see why the odds favor another loss here for Utah and the Wildcats offer huge value at the underdog price here. I won't pass this up. 

T.M. Prediction: 77-68 Kansas State

T.M. Selection: Texas.

The Longhorns are in a great situational spot. Kentucky off B2B wins including over Tennessee. The Longhorns have lost 3 straight games and are off a home game where they allowed over 100 points to Alabama. Losing that one by 23 at home and now at home again here, Texas will likely have one of their best games of the season in this one. The Wildcats had lost 4 of 5 before these B2B wins. Also, both wins came at home and now Kentucky is on the road and the Cats have lost 4 of 6 away from home. The Longhorns have lost 3 straight games and their last losing streak of more than 3 games was 5 years ago in February of 2025! The Horns last two home games against ranked teams, prior to the loss to the Crimson Tide, were both wins. Texas does have some home losses to ranked teams that were #1 and #2 when they faced those teams. The Longhorns at home and facing a ranked, though not top ten, team that is in a rough scheduling spot is the perfect spot to back the home team. I also like the way these teams match-up. The fact is that this is just a bad matchup for the Jayhawks; lay the price and take the Longhorns on the money line!

T.M. Prediction: 85-75 Texas.

T.M. Selection: San Jose State.

Great spot for the home dog Spartans here. The Wolf Pack are off 3 straight wins but 2 of those were against Fresno State and Air Force and those two teams are at the bottom of the conference. Before this 3-0 run Nevada had lost 7 of 10 games and this is further indication that this team is an over-priced favorite on the road in this one. The only two conference road wins that the Wolf Pack have came against Air Force and Fresno State. The Falcons and Bulldogs have a combined 1-27 record in MWC games this season. San Jose State is right behind Nevada in the MWC standings so there is not a large gap between these teams. With home court factored in, the Spartans offer exceptional value here. Spartans are off a home loss (albeit by 3 points) to San Diego State but San Jose State won 3 in a row at home before that loss. Those 3 wins included upsetting league leaders New Mexico. That Spartans just might win this one outright and I certainly see the value in the +6.5 points here. 

T.M. Prediction: 69-67 San Jose State

A little different format for me today on Saturday, February 8th as I have one play going from each of the 3 major sports today - NBA, CBB, NHL - and look for the 3-0 SWEEP! In CBB this is a great spot for St Mary's as they are off a very tough 1-point loss at San Francisco. This game is at Oregon State but the fact the Gaels are traveling again has given us a value line on them here. The Gaels were perfect this season in Conference action prior to the loss to the Dons. They are taking on a solid Oregon State team but the Beavers are just nowhere close to the Gaels in terms of talent level. The Beavers are off a win but have recent tougher match-ups with Gonzaga and San Francisco and lost those by a combined 49 points! The money line is in the -180 range but easily warrants being much higher so this is BIG line value for me in this spot! TM Selection: St Mary's 72-58

T.M. Selection: Utah State / Fresno State UNDER.

Public perception has helped in pushing this O/U line higher than it really should be in my opinion. Fresno State has had 3 overtime games in last 7 games! One of those was double OT so the Bulldogs point totals - both offense and defense - are a bit inflated now. Overall, Fresno State is having a very rough season and they are not scoring well. That said, they will be focused on the defensive end here at home and look for some revenge for a high-scoring loss at Utah State in the first meeting. Usually Fresno State does not score well and the Bulldogs have a low 40% shooting percentage on the season. The Aggies shoot the rock much better but Utah State has also been strong on the defensive end. With a tougher game, at home but versus Colorado State, on deck the focus tonight for the Aggies will be to secure what is projected to be an easy win. With likely having a big lead late they can call off the dogs and conserve energy for the bigger game with the Rams that is coming up next on the schedule. The Aggies will not run up the score, per se, in this one. Utah State has allowed an average of 66 ppg in last 5 games since mid-January - with exclusion of the loss versus league-leading New Mexico. The Bulldogs most definitely are not the Lobos and they will struggle to get past the 60-mark here! 

T.M. Prediction: 78-65 Utah State.

T.M. Selection: Washington State / Oregon State OVER.

Excellent value with this total as it is being kept low after the Cougars had their worst game of the season in a 75-51 loss at San Francisco. Washington State is an up-tempo team but struggles on the defensive end. Before this low-scoring loss to SF the Cougars lost a tight one at Pacific that totaled 138 points. This followed a high-scoring streak as 6 of 7 Washington State games totaled at least 155 points. The Cougars looking to end a 5-game losing streak and I expect a response after struggling with shooting against the Dons. The Beavers have scored more than 80 points in 6 straight home games. Overall, Oregon State has had 7 straight games total at least 146 points and with the way the Cougars like to play at a fast pace, this one should get well into the 150s Thursday night! 

T.M. Prediction: 82-75 Oregon State.

T.M. Selection: Washington / Nebraska OVER.

The Cornhuskers rolling after consecutive wins over ranked opponents. Nebraska has given up 82.6 points per game (excluding OT points) in last 5 games on the road. This is a great spot for a high-scoring game as the Huskers continue to give up plenty of points on the road but also are riding high with momentum off consecutive wins and having knocked off a pair of ranked opponents in the 2-game streak. The Huskies are off a road win that stopped the bleeding of a long losing streak that featured many ranked teams and other unranked (but hot) teams. Washington is now looking forward to more of a winnable home game here and I expect their play on the offensive end to flourish as they carry the momentum of the road win at Minnesota. The Huskies allowed 79.3 ppg in their 6-game losing streak prior to beating the Golden Gophers. With both teams in this Wednesday match-up coming off wins but also having issues stopping teams (the ppg allowed shown above for each), this one has the makings of a high scoring game getting into the 150s in my estimation.

T.M. Prediction: 78-75 Nebraska.

T.M. Selection: Oregon.

I believe Oregon will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. This is a great spot for the Ducks and a tough spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers off an overtime win versus Illinois. Prior to knocking off the Illini, Nebraska lost 6 straight games. 4 of those defeats were on the road and 3 of the 4 were by a double digit margin. I look for another blowout road loss for the Huskers here. Oregon is off B2B losses but both were on the road and this followed a 16-3 start to the season. The Ducks will be in strong bounce back mode here and their only recent losses prior to the B2B road defeats were against high-quality Big Ten teams that were ranked. As for this Nebraska team, the Cornhuskers were 2-7 in Big Ten match-ups prior to the win over Illinois. Look for Oregon to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 81-65 Oregon

T.M. Selection: Arkansas.

I'm expecting a super tight battle here between these teams. Yes, Kentucky is the ranked team and has the much better record in this match-up overall, but it is consistently overvalued in my opinion as the Wildcats only 4-3 in SEC action. Kentucky has played 7 games in SEC action just like Arkansas. In those 7 games the Wildcats have only one win by more than 6 points and here they are laying more than 10 against a Razorbacks team coached by former UK coach Calipari. Even though the Razorbacks are off to a tough start in SEC action at 1-6, you know they are going to be highly motivated by Calipari to give maximum effort here. I expect one of their best games of the season in this one. Also, Arkansas is 12-8 overall this season and only 4 of the 20 games have been a loss by more than an 8-point margin. Given all of the above and the Calipari angle, the Wildcats will have difficulty covering this large spread. No outright upset win here, but closer than expected. I believe Arkansas matches up well with Kentucky and the Wildcats, though ranked 12th in the nation, have not been overly dominant in terms of their winning margins in games. This one could even go down to the final possession! 

T.M. Prediction: 80-77 Kentucky.

T.M. Selection: Indiana / Purdue OVER.

I like Indiana to push the Boilermakers to the brink in this one. This is a rivalry game and the Hoosiers are sure to give it their all even though Purdue is a heavy favorite. The Hoosiers have enough scoring to keep this game interesting much of the way! They can trade buckets for long stretches in this one. Purdue has been great on their home floor this season and are averaging 85 ppg at home this season. The Hoosiers are allowing 84 ppg in the 4 losses in their current 1-4 run. However, Indiana is scoring 77 points per game this season and 3 of the last 4 meetings between these rivals have totaled 150+ points! This is a big total but both teams have a great shot at getting well into the 70s and Purdue should hit for mid-80s here! I expect the Hoosiers to look to pounce on the Boilermakers early knowing they are catching them off that huge blowout win over Michigan - also off to a strong start in the Big Ten this season - as that was a big win for Purdue over a solid Wolverines team. This keeps Indiana in this one for a long time but Boilers are just too potent on their home floor and pull away late for another solid high-scoring win on their home floor. 

T.M. Prediction: 84-72 Purdue.

T.M. Selection: UC San Diego.

I believe UC San Diego will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. The key reason that the Tritons are near the top of the Big West standings and the Rainbow Warriors are languishing in the middle of the standings is for one key reason which is in play here. UC San Diego has dominated the teams they are supposed to beat while Hawaii has truly struggled when facing upper level competition. So there is truly a talent divide between these teams and I see the Tritons winning big again, even on the road, as the struggles of the Rainbow Warriors continue when they face an upper tier opponent. UC San Diego is on a 15-2 run and 6 straight wins have come by a margin of 14 or more points. 11 of last 13 Tritons wins have been by at least 8 points and I see them covering the 7.5 here on the road. Hawaii has lost B2B games and 3 of 4 and is just 7-7 since a 5-1 start to the season. The 8 losses by an average margin of 11 points and all signs do point to a double digit loss here as the Tritons seek revenge for a loss here in OT in the most recent meeting last season. Look for UC San Diego to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 76-60 UC San Diego

T.M. Selection: Washington State / Santa Clara OVER.

I like WSU to push the Broncos to the brink in this one. Santa Clara is off a huge upset win at Gonzaga and that opens the door for the fast-paced Cougars to challenge them big-time here. Washington State plays fast and is averaging 82 ppg this season and Santa Clara is averaging 81 ppg. With the Broncos off a big upset win they could be ripe for the picking here yet they are at home and score so well and Washington State is not that strong on the defensive end. As a result of all this, a match-up like this often works itself into a very high-scoring game. The Broncos had one low-scoring game recently - a loss at Loyola Marymount - but are 10-1 in their other 11 games since early December. Santa Clara scored an average of 85.5 ppg in regulation time (not including OT) in those 11 games. Similarly, the Cougars have one low-scoring game win last 11 games but in other 10 games since early December they have averaged 81.8 ppg. This is a big total but both teams have a great shot at getting well into the 80s and I expect the Cougars to look to pounce on the Broncos early knowing they are catching them off that upset win! 

T.M. Prediction: 87-83 Santa Clara.

T.M. Selection: Arkansas.

The Razorbacks are in a great situational spot. Arkansas just suffered a very ugly loss at #1 Tennessee which insures a proper response here at home and they should dominate Ole Miss. The Razorbacks are a strong shooting club and now back at home and facing a weaker foe, Arkansas is sure to bounce back with their shooting effort here. The Rebels are not a great team defensively and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. One can expect that coach John Calipari was none too pleased with the result against the Vols and will now bring out the best in his team here. He has been prepping them ever since the bad loss at Tennessee. I also like the fact that Arkansas is looking to make it 6 straight wins in this series when hosting the Rebels. Indeed, Ole Miss has struggled to win here in recent seasons and I also like the way these teams match-up. The fact is that this is just a bad matchup for the Rebels; lay the price and take the Razorbacks on the money line!

T.M. Prediction: 80-68 Arkansas.

T.M. Selection: San Diego State.

I believe San Diego State will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. California Baptist is off a blowout road loss at Central Florida. That was a week and a half ago so the Lancers will surely have lost their game rhythm after the long layoff. California Baptist has faced a much weaker schedule than San Diego State this season! Also, the Aztecs are in a great spot as they are rolling and they have a long break on deck after this game. So San Diego State is in top form and with rest on the way and they are at home here too. The Lancers allow an average of 76.7 PPG, while San Diego State allows an average of 63.4 PPG. The much stronger defensive club is also the host and plus their impressive numbers have been accumulated against a tough schedule. Just recently the Aztecs have faded teams like Houston, Oregon, Creighton and Gonzaga! Look for San Diego State to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 80-56 San Diego State 

T.M. Selection: North Dakota State/Butler OVER.

I like NDSU to push Butler to the brink in this one. The Bulldogs are coming off an ugly loss to Houston over the weekend and I expect they will still be shell-shocked here. The Bison are 14 point dogs and Butler could end up pulling away late to win by that margin but not before North Dakota State puts a scare into them first. The Bison have plenty of scoring options and they can keep up with Butler for long stretches in this one. NDSU enters off an 82-70 win over Northern Colorado, and there's no reason not to think they can't carry that offensive momentum over here. The Bulldogs will be ready to be aggressive offensively after being locked down by a strong Cougars team over the weekend. I expect this dangerous Butler offense (so strong at home) to stretch the perimeter defense of the Bison. This isn't a very high total obviously and this can still be a lower-scoring overall game and easily eclipse this super low number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. This number is MUCH too low in my estimation.

T.M. Prediction: 84-70 Butler.

T.M. Selection: Montana

1) Grizzlies have the home court edge here and that is big in a game like this. Cal State Northridge all the way up in Missoula, MT for this one. Montana has the lesser overall record but they are 4-0 at home and the Matadors only loss this season was on the road. 

2) Let's bypass the spread and instead take on the ML as the line is around a 1.5 but we can find money line options in the 120 range and this is an excellent value so look for that as it is available.

3) Montana has played the tougher schedule which includes losses at Oregon, Utah State and Tennessee! The Grizzlies are battle-tested and in the comforts of home here. Cal State Northridge began the season with a loss to St Bonaventure and have faced a much easier schedule ever since then as well and the Grizzlies suffering ugly losses to powerful programs helps them out here as they have already taken their lumps this season. Now it is time for the Matadors to take theirs.  

T.M. Prediction: 81-71 Montana

T.M. Selection: Connecticut.

The two best team's in the nation collide here, but I believe that the defending champs experience, and overall better defensive play will prove to be too much for the Boilermakers to handle in crunch time, and because of that I expect the Huskies to pull away not only for the win, but also the comfortable cover in the process. Edey is countered by Clingan. Dan Hurley will have a plan to counter anything Edey can do. Look for UConn's defense to be the differnce in the end.

T.M. Prediction: 80-65 UConn.

T.M. Selection: Georgia (MONEY-MAKER)

While I clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Seton Hall is coming off a 9168 win over UNLV, while Georgia advanced by taking care of Ohio State 79-77. Georgia has covered in 11 of 12 away contests this year, while Seton Hall is just 4-7 ATS away from friendly confines. Georgia continues to get undervalued and that's once again going to be the case here. Outright victory?! That's possible of course, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

T.M. Prediction: 77-76 Georgia.

T.M. Selection: Tennessee.

These teams met in Maui at the start of the year, and Purdue won 71-67. While I anticipate another tight affair here, I do believe the Vols will get their revenge this time around. That said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Vols average 79.1 PPG, while conceding 67.3, while Purdue averages 78.3 PPG, while allowing 72.9. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

T.M. Prediction: 76-74 Tennessee.

T.M. Selection: Clemson (SWEET 16 GOY)

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Tigers simply keep getting underestimated, both by their opponents and the bookmakers in my opinion. Their recent win over Arizona highlights that fact. I really like Alabama, but it's weakness is its defensive play, and I say that finally comes back to haunt it here. These teams played back at the start of the year, and it was Clemson tha twon 85-77 in the ACC/SEC Challenge. While an outright is possible again, I'm grabbing the points as my official call.

T.M. Prediction: 83-82 Clemson.

T.M. Selection: Gonzaga/Purdue UNDER.

It's the No. 1 seed vs. the No. 5 seed. The Bulldogs rolled over an injured Kansas team 89-68, while the Boilermakers steamrolled Utah State 106-67. Each team was extremely impressive on each end of the court. I think whoever steps up and plays defense here will come out on top. Fatigue is now an issue for both sides as well, and public perception has helped in pushing this O/U line higher than it really should be in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 75-70 Purdue.

T.M. Selection: Alabama.

These are the two highest scoring teams left in the Tournament. North Carolina has the slightly better oveall defense, but the Tide have looked great here over the first two games of this tournament. The Tide have extremely efficient outside shooting and it's the toughest offense that UNC has faced yet. Bama and the points is the correct call in my opinion in this matchup.

T.M. Prediction: 87-86 UNC.

T.M. Selection: UNLV.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Rebels are off the 79-70 home win over Boston College, while Seton Hall beat UNT here 72-58. The Rebels' superior offense will keep them this game late. And with 70% of the public money on the home side, the contrarian in me is also pleased with this wager. While I wouldn't be shocked by an outright, my official call is to grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 71-69 Seton Hall.

T.M. Selection: Chicago State.

Fairfield advanced by beating UALR 82-75 yesterday, but I feel that it'll be "gassed" here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Chicago State though enters off a 77-75 win over San Diego State as a 9.5-point dog to advance and I think it keeps that momentum rolling here, as it's had an extra days rest. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 73-71 Chicago State.

T.M. Selection: Yale/SDSU OVER.

I like Yale to push SDSU to the brink. The Bulldogs are coming off a 78-76 win over Auburn as 14-point dogs, and there's no reason not to think they can't carry that offensive momentum over here. The Aztecs edged UAB 69-65, but the Bulldogs looked great from range in their win over the Tigers and I expect this offense to stretch the Aztecs' perimeter defense. This isn't a very high total obviously and this can still be a lower-scoring overall game and easily eclipse this super low number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. This number is MUCH too low in my estimation.

T.M. Prediction: 75-70 SDSU.

T.M. Selection: Oakland.

I think that 14th seeded Oakland has a legit shot at winning this one outright. NC State enters as the 11th seed. Oakland upset Kentucky 80-76, while the Wolfpack beat Texas Tech 80-67. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are super similar. They've very evenly matched teams and matchup well. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line at times, and in my opinion, whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top, that's how evenly matched it really is.

T.M. Prediction: 74-72 Oakland.

T.M. Selection: Michigan State.

While I do think that an outright victory is definitely not out of the realm of possibility obviously which such a small spread (and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on they money line is a wise move as well,) my official call is to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Michigan State and Tom Izzo cruised to a 69-51 wiin over Mississippi State and I'm expecting them to carry that momentum over here. The Tar Heels had little problem with a tired Wagner, winning 90-62. But, while I'll admit this is a big step up in competition for the Spartans, it's also a huge step up in competition for the Tar Heels. Everything points to a "nail-biter," so I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 72-68 Michigan State.

T.M. Selection: Grambling/Purude under.

Grambling moved out of the First Four by defeating Montana State 88-81 in OT, but I think it'll be "gassed" here and overwhelmed by the size of the Boilermakers, who fell 76-75 to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Purdue will dicate the pace and tempo and not allow the Tigers many second chances. This one appears to be a much more defensive-battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. 

T.M. Prediction: 83-57 Purdue.

T.M. Selection: Stetson.

Do I think that UConn is going to win this game?! Yes, I do. Do I believe the Huskies will win this game by essentially four TD's?! No, I don't! The Hatters finished 22-12, while UConn was 31-3. This is Stetson's first ever trip to the Big Dance, and clearly they've drawn a tough opponent. But Stetson looked good in its 94-91 conference tournament win over Austin Peay, and I expect it to carry that momentum over here. Dan Hurley's Huskies may very well repeat as Champion, but I think this one will be a lot closer than what this spread is suggesting. This Hatters offense can score with anyone in the nation. Look for the strong/easy/comfortable backdoor cover as this one comes down the stretch.

T.M. Prediction: 80-65 UConn.

T.M. Selection: Washington State.

Drake finished 28-6 and Washington State was 24-9. Washington State earned a spot by finishing second in the Pac 12 with a 14-6 record, losing to Colorado in the semi-finals of the Tourney. Drake advanced by beating the Top seed in the MVC (Indiana State), to advance. Drake averages 80.3 PPG, while allowing 70.6, while Washington State averages 74.3, while conceding only 66.3. Drake lacks the depth that the Cougars bring to the table and that's the difference-maker for me. Grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 72-68 Washington State.

T.M. Selection: Arizona.

I believe Arizona will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. LBSU averages 76.5 PPG, while the Wildcats average 88. Yes, Arizona stumbled down the stretch, but the longer lay-off to prepare for this one will be the difference. Look for Arizona to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 96-67 Arizona.

T.M. Selection: Colorado/Boise State OVER.

These teams are looking to move on, and whoever does will face the seventh seeded Gators. Colorado was 24-10, and Boise State finished 22-10. The Buffs lost 75-68 to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament, while the Broncos fell 76-66 to New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament. Both sides are off disappointing low-scoring losses, but with time off to prepare, I believe we'll see a wide-open pace here. More shots = more points! Previous to losing, the Buffs had won eight straight! Colorado averages 79.3 PPG, and I believe it'll be the one to set the pace here. This number is low in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 75-73 Colorado.

T.M. Selection: Wake Forest.

I think the 27-6 Appalachian State Mountaineers won't be able hang down the stretch with the 20-13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the first round of the NIT. App Stae lost 67-65 to Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Championship, led by 15 points from Terence Harcum. Wake lost 81-69 to Pitt in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal, led by 23 points from Cameron Hildreth. Wake Forest is the more motivated team here in my estimation. It averages 78.2 PPG and the home floor advantage will be huge down the stretch. Look for App State to stumble in the second half and for the home side to extend with a big win and cover.

T.M. Prediction: 80-65 Wake.

T.M. Selection: Richmond.

Both teams lost to lower-seeded teams in their conference tournament openers, so each saw its NCAA Tournament hopes dashed. Now they face off here in Virginia Tech in the NIT. The Spiders finished 23-9 and the Hokies were 18-14. Richmond's loss to St. Joe's was the bigger upset clearly, as it was the No. 1 seed in the A-10 Tournament. "I think that a postseason appearance, more than ever before, is a great accomplishment," 19-year coach Chris Mooney said Monday. "We've already had a tremendous accomplishment, winning the regular-season championship. This is another opportunity to play in the postseason, to play at an ACC school we greatly respect." While I do think an outright is possible, my call is to grab as many points as you can.

T.M. Prediction: 73-71 Richmond.

T.M. Selection: Wagner.

These two teams got hot at the right time and won their conference tournaments. Wagner finished 16-15, while Howard was 18-16. The Bison though have a terrible defense and struggle with defending the rim. Something that Wagner does well. I think the Seahawks have a chance of winning this one outright. You may want to consider sprinkling a little on the moneyline here. Whoever wins, they're journey in the Big Dance will end in the next round, but this one has the "feel" of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. And so because of that, I'm grabbing the points for sure!

T.M. Prediction: 65-64 Wagner.

T.M. Selection: Illinois.

The Badgers finished 22-12. They've had to win three games to reach the Championship game. That included a win over No. 1 seed Purdue, to reach the Championship game for the first time since 2016. The Badgers are exhausted and contents, while the Illinois will be all business after dispatching Nebraska. We already have a "blue print" as well of how this game will play out, as Illinois beat Wisconsin 91-82 on March 2nd. I believe this game will be lower-scoring overall, but the discrepany of winning margin will be even greater for the Illini. This is just a bad matchup for the Badgers; lay the price and take Illinois on the money line!

T.M. Prediction: 80-70 Illinois.

T.M. Selection: East Carolina.

I like ECU to build off its 84-79 win over Tulsa yeterday. Rest leads to rust for the Bulls in my esimtation, who actually lost 76-70 to Tulsa in their regular-season finale. Off that recent common opponent matchup to compare, I think ECU has a legit shot at winning this one outright. That said, let's grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 68-67 USF.

T.M. Selection: Duke.

NC State is the tenth seed, and Duke is No. 2. The Wolfpack finished 19-14, while the Blue Devils were 24-7. But after taking down Louisville and Syracuse, I say NC State's run in the Tournament comes to a resounding close tonight. The Blue Devils fell to UNC in their final regular season game by a score of 84-79, so they'll be extra pissed in this one (LOL!) Duke beat NC State in Raleigh back on March 4th by a score of 79-64, and all signs point to an even bigger blowout this time around.

T.M. Prediction: 85-65 Duke.

T.M. Selection: Michigan State.

Both teams finished 18-13, but this is one that favors the Spartans here now in the Conference Tourney in my opinion. These teams played twice in the regular season and they went 1-1. The Gophers got smashed 90-66 by Northwestern in their final regular season game, while Michigan State fell just short in a 65-64 setback to Indiana. Look for the Spartans to carry over that momentum here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

T.M. Prediction: 75-60 Michigan State.

T.M. Selection: Utah.

I'm expecting a decisive victory for the Utes in this one. ASU finished 14-17, while Utah finished 18-12. Arizona State comes in with zero moment after three straight losses to end the season. Utah also closed with two straight losses, but the difference is that the Utes have a chance to "right a wrong" here in the opener of the Tournament. Utah lost 85-77 at home to ASU on February 10th as 13-point favorites. Note though that the Utes are a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this spread should or could in fact be a lot larger, so that swings the value in favor to Utah for sure in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 80-66 Utes.

T.M. Selection: Rice.

While I do think an outright is very possible, my official call is to grab the points. The Owls finished 11-20, while the Shockers were only slightly better at 13-18. On the season Rice averaged 71.7, while allowing 75.3, while Wichita State averaged 72.8, while allowing 73.1. These teams squared off two weeks ago and the Shockers managed a 21-point home victory as 5.5-point favorites. But the Owls let that one go early, and now here in this neutral location, I think that the tean that has its hands on the ball last will win. So I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 72-68 Rice.

T.M. Selection: Canisius.

Canisius finished 13-17, while Mount St. Mary's was 13-18. These teams played very recently, and for the most part I'm basing this selection off the results of that contest. It was very recent, so we don't have to look back to far to get our comparisons. In that game Canisius won 61-56 as a two-point fav. Granted, it was a thome and the Golden Griffins play much better at home, but because this is a neutral site affair, I actually feel that these two sides are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I feel the outright is possible as well.

T.M. Prediction: 69-68 Canisius.

T.M. Selection: Texas State.

I'm expecting a super tight battle here between these teams. Yes, James Madison did finish 28-3 SU this year, but it was consistently overvalued in my opinion. Texas State finished 17-17, but it's coming in off three straight victories to reach this point of the tournament and I believe it carries that momentum over here. The Dukes beat Marshall yesterday, but I believe they'll have difficulty covering this large spread on the second game of the B2B scenario. No outright, but closer than expected.

T.M. Prediction: 72-70 James Madison.

T.M. Selection: Temple.

UAB is 18-11, including 6-5 on the road, while Temple is 11-18, including 5-8 at home. The Blazers though are playing terribly righ tnow, loser of two straight. With a home game vs. 20-10 SMU to end the season up next, I say the visitors get caught looking ahead. The Owls are off a tight 72-67 home loss to Tulsa as six-point favs, but note that Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. Grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 74-70 Temple.

T.M. Selection: Holy Cross.

Two bad teams. Holy Cross finished 9-22 and Army was 10-21. But this pick is based entirely on "revenge," and specifically the "double revenge" factor. Army won both meetings between the tams this year, 70-57 at home on January 6 and 59-53 on the road on February 17. Holy Cross is 8-2 ATS (that's 80% of the time it's cashed in this spot) in trying to avenge two straight SU/ATS losses in a row vs. a conference opponent. In a contest that I see coming right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points (but don't be afraid to sprinkle a little on the moneyline here as well!)

T.M. Prediction: 65-64 Holy Cross.

T.M. Selection: UAB/Memphis OVER.

UAB is 18-10, which includes a 6-4 road record. Memphis is 21-8, including 12-2 at home. UAB is off the 74-66 home loss to Wichita State as an 8-point fav though and the Blazers have seen the total go over in eight of 12 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. They beat Memphis 97-88 in January at home, and note that the Tigers have seen the total eclipse the number in seven of ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a fav. Yes, both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games, but all signs point to a shootout here finally on Sunday.

T.M. Prediction: 90-75 Memphis.

T.M. Selection: OVER SFA/GRC.

I'm expecting a really high-scoring game here finally. Theses two teams played at Stephen F. Austin back in January, and GRC won 53-51 as a 1.5-point favorite. That's the basis of this entire play though, as the Lumberjacks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last ten (that's 80% of the time over the L10 times this exact scenario has occured!), in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. And for the Antelopes? They broke a two game slide with a 72-43 win over Texas Rio Grand Valley, but clearly they're going to have their hands full with this revenge-minded visiting side. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, the play for sure here is the over.

T.M. Prediction: 90-70 GRC

T.M. Selection: Arkansas State.

Arkansas State is 16-14, while App State is 25-5. The Red Wolves though are playing extremely well with six straight wins and with the final game of the year here, I'm expecting the back door to be wide-open as App State gets caught "looking ahead" to the conference tournament. App State has won six in a row, but this spread is just too large in my opinion. No outright, but right down to the wire.

T.M. Prediction: 125-124 App State.

T.M. Selection: Weber State - ATS 

I like the Weber State Wildcats to win this game against the Northern Colorado Bears on Thursday, February 29th. At home this season, the Wildcats have been good. Even though they are coming off a blowout loss, they should have plenty of confidence as they are playing a team which they beat by 20 on the road earlier this month. The Bears are also off a loss and head on a mini road trip to finish the regular season. Home court should play a role here tonight and I've got Weber State covering the short line. 

T.M. Prediction: 84-72 Weber St. 

Line: -5.0 

Line Parameter: play until -6.0.. 

T.M. Selection: Hawaii / UC Davis - UNDER 

I am on the UNDER in the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ UC Davis Aggies on Thursday, February 29th. Both of these two teams have seen more UNDER's than OVER's this season. Yes, their first meeting had 157 combined points. However, I expect this one to be much lower scoring. UC Davis have been struggling to score as of late, averaging only 65.4 points over their last five games. Hawaii have been apart of some very low scoring games already this season. I'll take the UNDER here. 

T.M. Prediction: 68-64 UC Davis. 

Line: O/U 138.5 

Line Parameter: play until 137.5.. 

T.M. Selection: USA - ML 

I like the South Alabama Jaguars to win this game against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles on Wednesday, February 28th. The Jags are coming off a loss. But, that was on the road and now they are back at home where they've been solid this season. Less than a week ago now, these teams met @USM. The Jaguars crushed them and never looked back. Now, USM is on the road and they are just 4-7-1 ATS on the road this year. I believe that South Alabama should be able to win this game convincingly again. Hammer the Jaguars. 

T.M. Prediction: 81-71 South Alabama. 

Line: -158 

Line Parameter: play until -190..