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T.M. Selection: Houston Astros

Off B2B losses at home in the World Series, most people probably think that their hopes are done. The Astros will now turn to the future hall of famer in Zach Greinke. In one start against the Nationals this year, Greinke went 7 1/3 innings, while giving up only 2 hits. I expect him to dominate in this must-win Game 3. Take the Astros and expect them to not go home without a fight.

T.M. Prediction: 4-1 Astros

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals

Two of the best pitchers in the entire league will take the mound in Game 1 of the World Series. Gerrit Cole has been nasty as of late. For his career, he has a 2.26 ERA in eight playoff starts. On the other hand, the Nationals will turn to their ace, in Max Schrezer, who comes in with a 1.80 ERA in the playoffs. I expect Max to get it done and shock the world in this one. Take the Nationals and expect an upset.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Nats

T.M. Selection: Houston (GOTW)

T.M. Analysis: You know I'm not one to play favorites. This matchup is too juicy to pass up though. The Astros have the Yankees right where they want them. They're firing on all cylinders and have got a major edge on the mound with Verlander ready to go. Houston punches its ticket to the World Series. Tonight!

T.M. Prediction: Astros 6-2

T.M. Selection: NY Yankees

Off a rough loss on Tuesday Night, both of these teams return to their Game 1 starter. Zack Greinke, who has been awful, will get the nod for the Astros. In the postseason so far, he has a terrible 8.38 ERA with no wins. On the other hand, Masahiro Tanaka has been absolutely dominant, in each of his playoff appearances this year. Tanaka is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA. Expect Tanaka to dominate once again in this one. Take the Yanks

T.M. Prediction: 7-3 Yankees

TM selection: Yankees +1.5 (run-line)

TM analysis: Cole is awesome. No doubt about it. However, Severino can also absolutely get it done. He's got a 0.00 ERA in these playoffs, courtesy of blanking the Twins. This Yankee lineup is deadly dangerous. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect a close tight game.

TM prediction: 4-3 Yankees. 

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals

Many may think that with the Nationals taking both the games in St Louis, the Cards would throw everything at Washington in Game 3. Well, it's true. It's a do or die situation for them. If they lose, it would take a miracle for them to come back from down 0-3. But, there is only one man in the way. Stephen Strasburg. That mean man right there, who has never lost in the postseason. Expect a destruction in this one. Take Washington with ease.

T.M. Prediction: 6-1 Nationals

T.M. Selection: NY Yankees

Game 1 saw a dominating performance from the New York Yankees. The final score ended up being 7-0 with Gleyber Torres leading the way. Houston's SP Justin Verlander got rocked last time out as he was trying to close out the ALDS. He only went 3 and 2/3 innings and allowed 4 ER's (7 hits.) Expect the Yankees to rock him again on Sunday Night.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks

T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves

Mike Foltynewicz is off a brilliant performance on Friday, where he threw 7 innings of dominance with only 3 hits given up. Now he'll face Jack Flaherty, who he beat on Oct. 4th. Atlanta is 51-32 with their home fans behind them on the year, and now they'll look to close out the 5-game series against a ST. Louis team who is 8-14 when playing with a day off. Expect home field advantage to come into play here. Play the Braves.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves

T.M. Selection: New York Yankees

With the Yankees up 2-0 in the best of five series, it shifts to Minnesota. The Yanks will hand the ball to the two-time All-Star in Luis Severino, while the Twins give the nod to Jake Odorizzi. Severino has been dominant since coming back from the IL posting a slick 1.50 ERA in 3 starts. On the other hand, Odorizzi will be making his postseason debut with the Twins' season on the line. Expect the man they call "Pena" to be dominant once again as the Yanks look to sweep the Twins in extraordinary fashion.

T.M. Prediction: 4-1 Yanks

T.M. Selection: NY Yankees/Minnesota Twins OVER (1st 5 Innings)

Analysis to come. 10* play

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yankees (1st 5 Innings)

T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves/STL Cards OVER

T.M. Analysis: Unders prevailed in the Wildcard games. But ... This is a hitters park with a pair of lineups that can hit the ball. Mikolas is terrible on the road and Keuchel got destroyed both career starts against Cardinals. The scores of those games were 5-8 and 5-13. Go Over. 

T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Braves

T.M. Selection: Tampa Bay/Oakland UNDER

One game to decide who's going to play the Houston Astros in the ALDS. I got the UNDER. Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight as he looks to shock the fans at the Coliseum in Oakland. Morton has been an absolute beast on the mound YTD as he pitched 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 240 punch outs. He allowed only one run over 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA) vs. the A's in two starts this year and he has a dominant 2.97 ERA vs. Oakland in his career. The guy who will be taking the mound for the Athletics is Sean Manaea. Since returning from the IL on September 1st, the southpaw is 4-0 with a mind-blowing 1.21 ERA. He has also been stellar vs. the Rays as he's got only a 2.70 ERA in his 3 career starts against them. Expect both of these pitchers to shine again as they both fight to stay alive. Play the UNDER.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Oakland

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals -1.5

Analysis to come. 10* play

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Nationals

T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies/San Fran Giants OVER

T.M Analysis: Yesterday was a 2-1 final. Today, we will see 4 or 5 times that many runs. Maybe more. Recently back from injury, Freeland (6.84 ERA) is on a pitch count. Won't be around long. Bullpen shaky. Beede don't like pitching in the afternoon. Seven daytime appearances have resulted in a 1-5 record with a 6.19 ERA. He was pounded in those games, to a clip of a .333 opponent batting average. Number is low. You'll see.

T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Giants

T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers

With Cincinnati eliminated from the playoffs, and the Brewers in the fight for the Wild Card spot, I believe that Milwaukee will play their guts out on Wednesday. The mighty Brewers are a sweet 17-4 in September (all without Christian Yelich!) They're also  56-37 YTD as a favourite of -110 or over. On the other hand, Tyler Mahle (Cincinnati SP) has been absolutely awful this season as he is 2-11 w/ a 4.93 ERA. Expect the better team to dominate this awful Reds pitcher.

T.M. Prediction: 5-1 Brewers

T.M. Selection: Kansas City Royals

Royals will relish spoiler role and they bring Duffy in off best start of season. 7 innings, 0 runs, 2 hits. Teheran walks a lot of hitters and he's given up 5 hrs his past 2 starts. KC brings it and begins week with an upset. Book it. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Royals

T.M. Selection: PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (run-line)

T.M. Analysis: You know its not like me to play too many run-lines. But this one screams 1-run game to me. Velasquez is a highly capable pitcher and we saw that in his last start. Call me crazy but I say he shines in this one. Plutko isn't bad. But he's no Cy Young either. The Indians average 4.7 runs. The Phils avg 4.9. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Philadelphia

T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians OVER

Yesterday was a 2-1 game. Today, you will see the bats wake up. Norris (3-12, 4.62 ERA) won't be around long. He's gone 3 innings in 6 straight starts. The Tiger pen has an ERA of roughly 5, a WHIP of roughly 1.5, and it converts barely more than half its save chances. Clevinger's last 2 home starts against Detroit have had finals of 7-2 and 15-0. This number is low. 

T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Indians

Selection: Seattle Mariners (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates)

Both teams enetr this matchup having a losing record. Although the record of the team might be not so good, Seattle is 17-11 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. On the other hand, the Pirates have been even worse. They're an embarrassing 26-42 since the All-Star break. Look for the absence of Josh Bell to hurt Pittsburgh tonight, and for Seattle to cruise to victory.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Mariners

T.M. Selection: Arizona DBacks

Some of you may not be aware of this but back in 2009, Arizona pitcher Mike Leake was originally drafted (first round) by the Reds. He's never beaten them in nine career starts and is absolutely hungry to do so tonight. He's off a great start and he's 8-3 with a 3.74 ERA here at home. I say Arizona scores the upset. 

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Diamondbacks

T.M. Selection: NY Yankees/Detroit Tigers UNDER (10* TOTAL TORTURER)

We've got a very high O|U line to work with in the opener of today's double-header. J.A. Happ (12-8) has been great recently. Entering this matchup vs. the Tigers, Happ has thrown 12 straight scoreless innings of baseball. That makes him 4-1 his L5 starts (including 2 straight road wins.) Boyd is off 2 straight wins and he held the Yankees to 1 run through 6.3 innings back in April. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yankees.

T.M. Selection: Royals (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

Neither pitcher instills a ton of confidence, but I think that the Royals will bounce back here after last night’s loss. The visitors go with Glen Sparkman, who is 3-11 with a 5.97 ERA, while the home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 9-12 with a 5.17 ERA. Note that Sparkman threw his first ever shutout vs. the Sox in KC back on July 16th, striking out eight and walking only one. Lopez owns a 4.97 ERA in four starts vs. KC lifetime. Note though that KC is 16-10 in its last 26 vs. clubs with losing records, while Chicago is only 38-57 vs. right-handed starters. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Royals.

T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Mets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

Last night’s game went “under” the number, but I think that runs will be plentiful here. Robbie Ray is 12-7 with a 4.03 ERA for the D-Backs, while Steven Matz is 9-8 with a 4.00 ERA for the Mets. New York gained ground in the Wild Card race with last night’s 3-2 victory, but I definitely expect a higher-scoring slug-fest in tho sone. Arizona is desperate for victories now as well after losing three straight (they won’t be lacking for motivation either after having scored just six runs in the past three games.) From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring affair. Play the over.

T.M. Prediction: 7-5 D-Backs.

T.M. Selection: Rays/Rangers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

For this selection I’m putting my full focus onto the starting pitchers. Ryan Yarbough is 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA this year for the Rays, while Lance Lynn has evolved into the Rangers’ ace this year by going 14-10 with a 3.81 ERA. Additionally note that TB has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 27 after a win by four or more runs, while Texas has seen the total dip under in nine of 13 already this season at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. This number is a tad high.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers.

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

Jose Berrios has been terrible. Anibal Sanchez has been terrific. I think the Nationals offer great value here to pull of the upset. Washington just lost three of four to the Braves, but salvaged the finale on Sunday. It can’t take the foot off the gas. The Twins on the other hand have a comfortable 5.5 game lead for the division crown and after this series they play out the remainder of the season vs. sub .500 teams. Sanchez is 6-6 with a 3.98 ERA in 23 career games vs. Minnesota. Berrios has just one win in his last six starts, most recently allowing six runs to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Great value on the visitors here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nats.

T.M. Selection: A’s/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK)

These two teams are known for their offensive prowess, but I believe it’ll be the men on the mound who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Mike Fiers is 14-3 with a 3.51 ERA for Oakland, while Zack Greinke is 14-5 with a 3.09 ERA for the Astros. Houston exploded for a 21-1 win over the Mariners yesterday, but I’m expecting a classic “duel” here between these two “studs.” Note that Oakland has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 this year already as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Houston has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a tad high.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Astros.

T.M. Selection: Braves (10* GAME OF WEEK)

The Phillies are in the mix for a wild card berth after a decent weekend. The Braves of course are looking to play spoiler and to add to their lead. Aaron Nola is 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA for Philadelphia and he’s had plenty of success vs. ATL in the past, but note that he comes in off a poor outing vs. the Reds, getting shelled for five runs over four innings. in his most recent start. The Braves had won nine in a row before falling 9-4 to the Nats yesterday. Foltynewicz has endured an uncharacteristically difficult season, but note that he’s still 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 14 career games vs. Philadelphia (also note that he enters off a gem, giving up on runs over five innings in a victory over the Blue Jays.) All signs point to a slight upset in this one. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves.

T.M. Selection: Nats/Braves under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

Clearly these are two of the best offensive clubs, not only in the Senior Circuit, but in the entire league. That said, these are two very capable starting hurlers and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Stephen Strasburg is 16-5 with a 3.47 ERA, while Atlanta’s Max Fried is 15-4 with a 4.05 ERA. Strasburg enters on top form, off one of his best outings of all time, striking out 14 and allowing two hits and zero walks over eight scoreless frames vs. the Marlins. Fried allowed four runs over seven innings in a win over the White Sox on Friday, posting a career high 11 in the process. Look for these two red hot starters to battle deep and play the under with confidence. 

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 ATL.

T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* TRADE-MARK)

I think Jason Vargas and the Phillies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Vargas is so far 6-7 with a 4.31 ERA and he’ll square off against the Reds’ Sonny Gray, who is 10-6 with a 2.80 ERA. Gray was phenomenal in August, going 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA, but regression is imminent in my opinion. After last night’s 8-5 loss in Washington, the Phillies are now three games behind the Cubs. Vargas hasn’t been great at all for this new team, but he faced the Reds on April 30th and was dominant, allowing one run over six frames (five K’s.) Gray’s been great, but I believe his sparkling numbers are completely unrealistic and I think the fall back to mediocrity begins sooner, rather than later. Play on Philadelphia.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Twins/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL CASH MACHINE).

Obviously these two line-ups feature plenty of offensive talent, but I think it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Jose Berrios is 11-7 with a 3.57 ERA for the Twins, while Eduardo Rodriguez is 16-5 with a 3.97 ERA for the Red Sox. Rodriguez has been Boston’s best pitcher of late, going 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA over six August starts. Berrios struggled badly in August, but despite being 0-3 to the Sox lifetime, he still sports a sharp 3.20 ERA in those contests. I think Berrios bounces back and I expect Rodriguez to carry over his recent momentum as well. This one has “duel” written all over it, play the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Red Sox.

T.M. Selection: Giants (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

Madison Bumgarner is 9-8 with a 3.62 ERA for the Giants this year, while Michael Wacha is 6-6 with a 5.07 ERA for the Cardinals. The Cards have taken the first two games of this series, 3-1 and 1-0 and I expect the visitors to respond finally on Wednesday. Bumgarner comes in on top form, allowing just eight runs over his last 32 innings of work. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants.

T.M. Selection: White Sox/Indians over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK)

Cleveland is desperate for victories after a recent scuffling stretch and I expect it to make the most of this opportunity. The Tribe made the most of yesterday’s 11-3 series opening win and I expect a similar final combined score here. Mike Clevinger has been awesome for Cleveland, but this pick is based primarily on the ineptitude of White Sox’ starter Dylan Cease (3-7, 6.92), who went just two innings in his last start vs. the Twins, getting shelled for eight runs off ten hits. Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 14 in revenging a loss where an opponent score ten or more runs, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in both games that it’s played in this season as a home fav in the -250 to -330 range. This one has “slugfest” written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Indians.

T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK)

The Phillies upset the Reds last night and I expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done here as well. Vince Velasquez is just 6-7 with a 4.86 ERA this season for Philadelphia, but he’s 2-0 over his past three outings, most recently scoring the 12-3 victory over the Pirates on Wednesday, allowing two run over five frames. Lucas Sims (2-1, 4.99) will be called upon to make a spot start for the home side. As a reliever Sims is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA, but as a starter he’s 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. The over night change greatly benefits the hungry visiting side. Lay the reasonable price.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

The Tribe won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing five of the six meetings between the clubs this year. The Rays have taken the first two games of this series, but I expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done on Sunday afternoon. The home side turns to Charlie Morton, who is 13-6 with a 3.11 ERA overall, but who fell to 0-2 in his last three starts after getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings in a 15-1 loss to the Astros. The visitors counter with Adam Plutko, who is 6-3 with a 4.34 ERA this season and who is looking for a third win in his last four starts. All things considered, this is unreal value on a dangerous dog backed into a corner. Play on the Indians.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tribe.

T.M. Selection: White Sox/Braves under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

The Braves are in the drivers seat right now after winning nine of their last 11. Chicago’s Ivan Nova is 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and he’ll be trying his best to slow down surging Atlanta. He’ll have a difficult time throwing opposite Max Fried, who is 14-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Note though that Nova is on fire, literally the best pitcher in all of MLB right now, going 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA since July 22nd. Also note that over four career starts vs. the Braves he’s 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA. Look for these two starters to throw into the latter innings and for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Braves.

T.M. Selection: Cubs/Mets under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER).

Two desperate teams square off on Wednesday night and each will trot out a competent starting pitcher. Suffice it to say, I believe that runs will be at a premium tonight. The Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks, who is 9-9 with a 3.20 ERA, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard, who is 9-6 with a 3.71 ERA. Chicago earned a crucial 5-2 win in yesterday’s series opener, snapping a three-game losing streak. I believe that today’s contest sets up as even more of a “duel.” Both Syndergaard and Hendricks come in on top form, having earned victories with scoreless outing in their most recent starts on Thursday. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 New York.

T.M. Selection: A’s/Royals over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK)

Oakland is surging towards the post-season with a 75-55 record. The A’s turn to Mike Fiers in this one and he’s so far 12-3 with a 3.46 ERA and a big reason why Oakland is where it is right now. The home side counters with Mike Montgomery, who is just 3-6 with a poor 5.01 ERA. Oakland won the opener of this series 19-4 last night and I believe a similar final combined score is in the cards on Tuesday as well. Fiers has been downright filthy over the last two months (1-0, 2.44 ERA over his past 19 trips to the hill), however it’s very interesting to note that he’s a poor 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Royals. Note that Oakland has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 33 this years a -150 favorite or higher already, while KC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of four already this year in revenging a home blowout loss of eight or more runs. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 9-5 A’s. 

T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* GAME OF WEEK)

Marcus Stroman is 7-11 with a 3.18 ERA this year, while the Cubs’ Yu Darvish is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA. Darvish comes in off his worst effort of the year, allowing seven runs over 5 1/3’s innings in what turned out to be a 12-11 Chicago win over the Tribe (that stat line is a little misleading though, as Darvish was staked to an early massive lead and he changed his tactics up a bit and instead just started peppering the strike zone.) Regardless note that Darvish is 1-0 with a 3.91 ERA in four starts vs. New York. Chicago though is already 16-12 (+4.3 units) after two or more straight losses this year, while New York is just 13-15 (-3.9 units) after a loss by two runs or less. I like Darvish to bounce back.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs.

T.M. Selection: KC Royals (10* SUPER SIDE)

Homer Bailey is 11-8 for the A’s this year, despite sporting a poor 5.06 ERA. Brad Keller is just 7-13 for the Royals this season, despite owning a sharp 3.65 ERA. Based entirely on the starting pitching tonight, I definitely like the home side hurler in this matchup. Note as well that Oakland is already just 11-12 this year after two or more consecutive losses as well. Great value on the home side here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Royals.

T.M. Selection: Pirates/Phillies under (10* SUPER TOTAL)

The Phillies’ just lost two of three in Miami and they’ll be desperate to get things turned around here. Jason Vargas is 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA and while he’s 0-1 over four starts for Philadelphia, he’s still posted a sharp 3.61 ERA. Pittsburgh is only 8-30 since the All Star break, thanks in part to poor starting pitching and an anemic hitting lineup. And after sweeping three straight over the Reds, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion. Musgrove won’t go down without a fight though, as he faced the Phillies on July 20th, giving up no earned runs and striking out eight over six frames of work. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the a lower-scoring “duel.” Play the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER)

Clayton Kershaw is 13-2 with a 2.71 ERA and he’s been the model of consistency for the Dodgers this season. Domingo German is 16-3 with a 5.14 ERA for the Yanks and he enters off an uncharacteristically poor outing in which he allowed six runs over six innings. These are two great pitchers, but there’s no question that each faces a challenging line-up. Game 1 went well over the number in New York’s win, but Game 2 was a rule in last night’s 2-1 victory for the Dodgers. Note though that New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine interleague road games after being held to one run or less in its previous game. The writing is on the wall and a slug-fest is in the cards. 

T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Cubs (10* MONEY-MAKER).

After dropping the first two games of this series and now sitting 1.5 games behind the Cardinals, I believe the Cubs are going to find a way to avoid the series sweep. Stephen Strasburg is 15-5 with a 3.65 ERA for the Nationals and he’ll be opposed for Cole Hamels, who is 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA. Both pitchers are coming off victories. Granted Strasburg has had the stronger season and he comes in on top form (he’s also had plenty of success vs. the Cubs in the past), but as mentioned off the top I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Hamels has dominated the Nationals throughout his career as well. The writing is on the wall and a letdown is finally imminent for the Nats in my opinion. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs.

T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

Hyun-Jin Ryu is 12-3 with a 1.64 ERA this season for the Dodgers, while James Paxton is 9-6 with a 4.53 ERA for the Yankees. Ryu though enters off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to the Braves. The Yanks’ bats have quieted down some of late, but clearly they’re going to be focused on this particular opponent this weekend. Paxton most recently allowed five runs over six innings in a no-decision at Dodger Stadium back in 2015. I think the stage is set for some offensive fireworks between MLB’s best teams in what is very likely going to be a World Series preview. Play the over.

T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* TRADE-MARK)

After getting blown out in last night’s series opener, I think the hard-hitting visiting side will bounce back on Wednesday. The Indians go with Adam Plutko, who is 5-3 with a 4.67 ERA so far, while the home side turns to Marcus Stroman (7-11, 3.21). Cleveland is the much more “desperate” team here, as it’s lost five of its last seven and its grip on the wild card is down to just a handful of games. There’s no room for error for Cleveland. New York is on a tear, winner in 11 of its last 12, but I think a letdown is now finally imminent. Stroman is 1-0 for his new team, but sports an unsightly 5.17 ERA in that span. Plutko is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two appearances vs. the NL. I think the desperate Indians get back on track here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians.

T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF WEEK)

The Cards come in hot, having won five straight after last night’s series opening victory. St. Louis now has a half game lead over the Cubs and it’s three up on the Brewers. Michael Wacha is just 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA for the Cards this year, but he’s 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers this season and 6-0 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 career appearances opposed. Wacha most recently allowd two runs over five innings vs. the Reds on Tuesday. Gio Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA this year and in ten career games vs. the Cards he’s 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Most recently Gonzalez was shelled for five runs over three innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals. Great value on the surging home side here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals.

T.M. Selection: Royals/Orioles under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK).

Two pitchers who would like a “mulligan” on their respective seasons collide in this American League matchup of cellar dwellers. But both Brad Keller and Dylan Bundy greatly benefit in facing their respective soft-hitting opponents this evening and when the smoke does finally clear, I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Last night the Royals managed a 5-4 win, but I think we’ll see much more of a “duel” here. Keller has lost four in a row, but note that the anemic Royals have scored only five runs in those contests. Additionally note that Keller is a spectacular 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in one career starts vs. the O’s. Bundy’s had a terrible overall season, but he’s been better of late and he has a big opportunity today facing the lowly Royals. Look for this one to sneak under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Orioles.

T.M. Selection: Padres/Reds over (10* TOTAL TRADE-MARK)

The recent form of each starting pitcher is the deciding reason why I like the “over” in this one. The Padres’ Eric Lauer is 6-8 with a 4.55 ERA and he’s been particularly ineffective on the road by going just 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Trevor Bauer is 10-9 with a 4.12 ERA for the Reds and while he had a strong start for his new team, he comes in off one of his worst outings of his career, getting shelled for nine runs off eight hits with two walks over 4.1 innings. I believe each starter gets the hook early and as a result, I’m playing the over.

T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Reds.

T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

The Nationals are in a furious race to the finish line for one of the Wild Card spots, but I think their Monday night game sets up as a “letdown” spot. The visitors go with Joe Ross on the mound and he’s so far 3-3 with a 5.91 ERA. The home side goes with Trevor Williams and he’s 5-5 with a 5.25 ERA so far. Ross comes in off his best start of the year, holding the Reds to one run over six innings on Tuesday. Ross has strung together three straight decent outings, but note that he’s still only 2-2 with a 5.76 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. I think Ross is “throwing over his head” at the moment and I think regression is indeed imminent. Williams the Pirates are out to play spoiler here. Williams is out to turn things around to finish off the 2019 campaign after a poor start to the season. As a reliever Williams is 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA, but as a starter he’s 3-1 with a 1.54 ERA. The stage is set for the upset in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. 

.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* MONEY-MAKER)

Minnesota needs all the wins it can at this point as it tries to maintain its slim lead in the division. Texas of course would love nothing more than to play spoiler and I believe the stage is indeed set for that to happen in this one on Sunday afternoon. Martin Perez is 8-5 with a 4.57 ERA for Minnesota and he comes in off a strong start vs. the Brewers on Tuesday, allowing one run over six frames. Perez though comes in sporting a poor 2-3, 5.01 ERA in all “day” games this year. Lance Lynn is 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA for the Rangers this year and he enters off a tough luck loss, giving up one run while striking out six over five innings vs. the Jays on Tuesday. Lynn comes in highly motivated, as he’s lost back-to-back starts despite allowing just two earned runs spanning 12 innings of work (note that Lynn is a superb 9-1 with a 3.54 ERA at home this season as well.) I’m banking on the minor upset in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

I’m expecting this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done. The Orioles hand the ball to Aaron Brooks, who is 2-6 with a 6.35 ERA. Brooks comes in off back-to-back poor outings and now owns a 59:21 K:BB over 71.2 innings. Brooks will be opposed by Rick Porcello, who is 10-9 with a 5.67 ERA. Porcello is sticking in the starting rotation out of necessity, but the veteran clearly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around before the end of the season. So while both pitchers haven’t been great to this point, I will point out that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 road games as an American League underdog in the +150 to +200 range. I think Porcello comes in focused and takes advantage of this favorable matchup. Play the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Red Sox.

T.M. Selection: Cubs (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT)

The Phillies won yesterday’s series opener, but I think the visitors bounce back here with Cole Hamels on the mound facing his former team. Philadelphia won 4-2 yesterday and it had nine hits despite also striking out 15 times. The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who is 10-3 with a 3.67 ERA. Nola comes in off a “dud,” allowing three runs over five innings in a 5-0 loss to the Giants (Nola is 2-1 vs. Chicago despite a ballooned 5.11 ERA over four career starts.) Hamels is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA overall this year and he comes in off a poor start as well, allowing five runs to the Reds over three innings. Previous to that though Hamels had posted a minuscule 1.07 ERA. I believe the stage is now set for the Cubs to avenge yesterday’s setback and to pull off the slight upset here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yankees under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER)

So far every game in this series has flown over the number, with the Yanks continuing their domination of the Orioles, but I believe that the finale finally sets up as more of a “duel.” Dylan Bundy is just 5-12 with a 5.04 ERA for Baltimore this year, but he enters off a decent outing vs. Houston Friday, allowing two runs over six innings, making it the third time in four trips to the hill that he’s allowed two runs or fewer. JA Happ gets the nod for the home side and he’s 9-7 with a 5.48 ERA this season. Happ for the most part has been a major disappointment for New York this year after coming over from the Blue Jays, but the veteran has the experience and tools in place to finish up strong before the playoffs (note as well that Happ is a solid 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 career appearances vs. the Orioles.) When you add it all up, I think this one sneaks below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK)

I absolutely expect Jason Vargas and the hungry home side to deliver the goods here. Vargas is 6-6 with a 4.09 ERA this season and he’ll be opposed by the Cubs’ Jose Quintana, who is 10-7 with a 4.23 ERA. Chicago though is just 23-35 on the road this year and it comes in having lost 11 straight road series in a row (Cubs have a poor 4.80 ERA on the road.) Note that Quintana is 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three starts at Citizen’s Bank park. Philly is 34-26 at home this year and Vargas is 3-0 with a 3.95 ERA in seven career match ups vs. the Cubs. All things considered, a great deal on the home side here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yankees under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK)

I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 of yesterday’s double-header between these teams and unfortunately, that was a loser. Both games blasted past the posted number, with the Yanks resuming their dominance of the lowly Orioles with a couple of blowout victories. I believe today’s contest sets up as more of a “duel” finally. John Means is 8-7 with a 3.36 ERA for the Orioles this year and while he enters off an outing to forget, note that he’s a sharp 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA in all “night” contests this season. The Yanks’ Domingo German is 15-2 with a 4.05 ERA this season and has a sharp 1.12 WHIP and a whopping 117/25 K/W as well. I expect the starters to go deep and for this one to stay well under once it’s all said and done.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE-MARK)

Rookie Mitch Keller is 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA and he’s been recalled from Triple-A to make his fourth career start here for the Bucs. Luckily for Keller he faces rookie Jose Suarez, who is just 2-3 with a 6.22 ERA. Pittsburgh’s been out of the playoff picture for a long time now, but it’s still competitive after an eight game losing streak. Last night the Pirates lost 9-8 in St. Louis, after having a 6-3 lead late. Clearly Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Angels had lost six in a row, before taking two straight off Boston, but I think a return home leads to complacency. I believe the “hungrier” team is poised to break its slide and score the minor upset on Monday night.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yanks under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER)

New York leads the season series 13-2. The Yanks enter on a 12-game win streak vs. the Orioles. But after hitting 16 homers in Baltimore last week, I think the opener of this double-header sets up as more of a “duel.” James Paxton comes in on top form for New York, going 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA over his last two starts (note that Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six career outings vs. Baltimore.) Gabriel Ynoa is just 1-6 with a 5.57 ERA for Baltimore this season, including 0-1 with a 3.99 ERA in two career starts vs. New York. Note though that the Orioles have seen the total go under the number in 15 of their last 20 American League day road game as an underdog in the +175 to +275 range. This number is a tad high, play the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* TRADE-MARK)

The White Sox turn to their ace Lucas Giolito today to try and win the rubber match vs. the A’s. Giolito is 12-5 with a 3.44 ERA and he enters off a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday, a win which snapped a five start winless skid. Oakland fell to 4-1 in this series after last night’s loss and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well with Chris Bassitt on the hill. Bassitt has been hit or miss this year and he’s just 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA over 16 2/3’s innings vs. the White Sox. Giolito has been “money in the bank” all season in this spot as well, going 6-1 with a minuscule 1.77 ERA in all “day” games. Great value on the superior starter here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox.

T.M. Selection: Cubs/Reds under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER)

I think that Jon Lester and Luis Castillo are primed for a classic “duel” on Sunday afternoon. Cincinnati won 10-1 on Saturday behind three home runs from 25 year old Aristides Aquino. Lester is 9-8 with a 4.39 ERA and he enters off his worst start of his career, allowing 11 runs off ten hits over four innings in an 11-4 loss to the A’s. The 35-year old has to be feeling good about a bounce back here though as he’s 7-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo is 11-4 with a 2.63 ERA and he’s 2-1 vs. the Cubs this year and 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA in nine career starts against them. I think the finale of this series sets up as a “duel.” Play the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Reds.

T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Dodgers under (10* TOTAL OF YEAR)

These are two really good pitchers going up against two really good hitting line-ups. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of night though, I do indeed believe it’ll be the starting hurlers who are the “main story-lines” in tomorrow’s summaries. Arizona ace Robbie Ray is 10-7 with a 4.03 ERA this year and so far he owns a sharp 178:58 K:BB over 134 innings of work. Walker Buehler gets the nod for the home side and he’s 10-2 with a tiny 3.22 ERA. Buehler comes in off a strong outing vs. the Padres on Saturday, allowing one run while striking out 15 over a complete nine innings. So far over 131.1 innings the 25-year old had 152 strikeouts. Look for these two horses to battle deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number.

T.M. Prediction: D-Backs/Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Yanks/O’s under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST)

While yesterday’s Yankees’ victory resulted in an “over,” I believe tonight’s contest sets up as more of a “duel.” John Means is 8-6 with a 3.12 ERA for Baltimore this year and he has to be feeling confident, as he’s 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three relief appearances vs. the Yanks. New York’s James Paxton is only 6-6 with a 4.61 ERA this season, but he’s 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA lifetime vs. Baltimore. Note as well that the Yanks have seen the total go under in five of their last seven AL road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. This number is a tad high.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

Ivan Nova is 6-9 with a 5.10 ERA this year for the White Sox. Nova enters off a decent stretch, but note that he’s already been destroyed by Detroit earlier this year, allowing six runs off 11 hits over six innings on April 18th. In fact note that Nova is 0-3 in nine career outings vs. the Tigers (5.96 ERA.) Detroit rookie Tyler Alexander is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA over four starts, but he’s shown decent control by walking only two batters in two innings. Clearly he’ll be hungry here. This one has minor upset written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers.

T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF THE WEEK)

The Dodgers have been far and away the best team in the league this year and they enjoy one of the league’s strongest “home field advantages.” that said, St. Louis won’t be rolling over here as it tries to chase down a wild card. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha, who is 6-4 with a 5.15 ERA overall this season, who has been primarily used out of relief of late. And the switch has helped as Wacha has given up just two earned runs off 12 hits with a walk to go along with a 7:1 K:BB over his last 8.1 innings of work. And I now expect that confidence to be carried over here into this advantageous matchup which has the vet facing Dodgers’ rookie Tony Gonsolin, who is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA and who make his second big league start tonight. I’m banking on Wacha delivering the goods.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals.

T.M. Selection: Tigers/Rangers under (10*)

Jordan Zimmermann won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. The veteran was 7-8 with a 4.52 ERA last year, but he took a major step back this season by going just 1-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Zimmermann though enters off his best start of the year (easily), allowing two runs off four hits over six inning with two strikeouts and on walk in a 7-2 win over the Angels on Monday. He’ll be opposed by Pedrao Payano, who is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. Payano most recently gave up three run over six innings in a no-decision vs. the dangerous A’s on Sunday. I expect these two hungry starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a tad high.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Rangers.

T.M. Selection: LA Angels (8*)

Jaime Barria enters off an unfortunate loss vs. the Tigers on Monday, allowing three runs (just two earned) over five innings with five K’s and no walks. Barria has now posted back-to-back strong performances and I think he has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Bieber is 10-4 with a 3.40 ERA overall this season and he’s coming off a strong start as well but if he’s had one clear weakness this season it’s actually been his play at home where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.32 ERA. Note as well that LA is 7-2 in its last nine road day AL contests in which it’s an underdog in the -175 to -200 range. Great value on an improving Barria here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Angels.

T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8* BANKROLL BUILDER)

Madison Bumgarner and the Giants are in the thick of a playoff spot now and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Colorado won the opener 5-4 on Friday, but the victory came at a cost with an injury to slugging outfielder David Dahl. Jon Gray gets the call for the home side and he’s a terrible 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA in nine games vs. the Giants. Bumgarner is 16-8 with a 3.07 ERA in 33 starts vs. the Rockies, including a highly respectable 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA at Coors Field. All things considered, great value on the Giants here in my opinion. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Giants.

T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* MONEY-MAKER)

Yes the Astros look great as the postseason approaches. Seattle’s completely out of the picture, but I think it has a serious advantage on the mound tonight. This play is based entirely around the current form of these starting pitchers. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA over his last nine starts, while Houston pitcher Aaron Sanchez is winless over his last 17 starts (0-13, 7.49), giving up 39 walks over 81 2/3’s innings while conceding a .901 OPS to opposing batters. Great value on the “superior” starting pitcher in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mariners.

T.M. Selection: White Sox/Phillis over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH)

I think the stage is set for a “slug-fest” in this one. Last night these teams played to a 4-3, 15 inning contest in which the White Sox came out on top of. Chicago might not feel as confident with Ross Detwiler on the mound as he’s so far 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA, and he’s a brutal 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in 6 2/3’s career innings vs. Philadelphia. Aaron Nola continues to be a bright spot, but note that the Phillies have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 interleague home games after scoring three runs or less in a loss that occurred in extra frames. This number is a little low.

T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Padres/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER)

I just don’t trust either of these starting pitchers. The Padres Eric Lauer is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA and he most recently was shelled for four runs off six hits with three walks and a K over 2.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on Thursday. The Dodgers hand the ball to Dustin May (0-0, 0.00) who makes his major league debut tonight. Over five starts in Triple A he posted a 2.30 ERA, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at the major league level. In a contest in which I expect each starter to “get the hook” early, I’m expecting this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* TRADE-MARK)

Boston took three of four from New York last weekend, but it dropped the finale of that four game set and it’s since lost three straight. The visitors clearly won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Yanks are scuffling as well as we come down the stretch, but with a 10.5 games lead, New York has room for error. The Red Sox though sit 3.5 games behind second place Tampa and clearly can’t let the division leaders continue to build up their lead. It’s basically now or never for Boston with a little under two months of the regular season left to go. Eduardo Rodriguez is 13-4 with a 4.13 ERA overall this year, but he’s posted a tiny 2.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 34:17 K:BB over his last six starts. His counterpart James Paxton is 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA and he most recently gave up seven runs off nine hits, including four homers in a loss to Boston last weekend. This one has “upset” written all over it in my opinion. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox.

T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* GAME OF YEAR)

St. Louis won the opener 2-1 on Tuesday, before Chicago rebounded with a 2-0 win last night. These NL Central foes are now tied for first in the division. Chicago gets an offensive boost today after acquiring slugger Nick Castellanos from the Tigers. The Cards hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, who is 4-6 with a 4.17 ERA overall this year and who has posted a 1.48 ERA over his past four starts. Flaherty though is a sub-par 1-2 with a 4.90 ERA in seven career games vs. the Cubbies. Chicago starter Jon Lester is 9-6 with a 3.63 ERA this year and just went seven scoreless vs. the Brewers on Saturday. Unlike his counterpart though, Lester has enjoyed success vs. his opponent today, going 8-5 with a 2.99 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Cardinals. I like Lester in this matchup and I expect Chicago to build off yesterday’s victory. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cubs GAME OF YEAR

T.M. Selection: Twins/Marlins under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER).

Jordan Yamamoto is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA and while he’s struggled over his last three starts, I believe he’ll settle down here vs. Michael Pineda and the Twins. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel” in the finale. Pineda comes in on top form having gone 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts (Pineda is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one start vs. Miami.) As mentioned above, Yamamoto has struggled over the last month, but note that he’s been at his best in all “night” games this year by going 3-1 with a tiny 2.48 ERA. I think this one sneaks under once it’s all said and done.

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Twins.

T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards under (10*)

For a number of different reasons I think this one sets up as duel between the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks, who is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and the Cards’ Miles Mikolas, who is 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA. St. Louis took the series opener 2-1 last night and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Mikolas comes in off a strong start vs. Pittsburgh, allowing three runs over six innings (Mikolas is also 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in eight career games vs. Chicago.) Hendricks is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 16 career starts vs. St. Louis. This one sets up as a “duel.” 

T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Cardinals.

T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10*)

I think that Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito are a “wash” here. deGrom is 6-7 with a 2.86 ERA, while Giolito is 11-5 with a 3.52 ERA. Giolito comes in off a horrible outing, but he’s been great overall this year and I think he’ll be able to match deGrom inning for inning. That then swings the pendulum in favor of the underdog in my opinion. This one has all the makings of a classic upset.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox.

T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (8*)

The hungry home side definitely offers great value in this spot. After yesterday’s 2-0 series opening loss, everything points to the Indians responding on Wednesday night. Cleveland’ rookie Zach Plesac is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA this season and he comes in off a strong performance, allowing one unearned run off six hits over seven innings in an 8-3 win over the Royals on Friday. Houston goes with rookie Jose Urquidy, who is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA. So far Urquidy has been sharp, but clearly this is his stiffest test to date. Additionally note that Cleveland is a sharp 26-17 (+4.2 units) this season following a loss. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians.

T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

These clubs are both pushing for a playoff spot. Neither starter has been great this year either, as Yu Darvish is just 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA for Chicago, while Adam Wainwright is only 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great as a higher-scoring slug-fest, but the numbers/trends also point that direction as well, as note that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 as a road dog this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in five of its last six after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This number is low.

T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards.

T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

The Indians had Monday off and this is the opener of a nine-game home stand. Despite having to face Houston ace Justin Verlander, I believe that Shane Bieber and the surging home side offer great value in this spot. Bieber most recently allowed one hit and struck out ten in a 4-0 shutout over the Jays on Wednesday. Verlander gave up one run over six innings in a 4-2 win over the A’s in his last start. But the Indians are a sharp 26-16 (+5.2 units) this year after a loss and I believe they’re going to find a way to get the job done here as well. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians.

T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER)

The Dodgers failed to complete the sweep in Philadelphia and I think they’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. I believe the starters are a “wash;” the visitors go with Kenta Maeda, who is 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA, while the home side goes with Jon Gray, who is 9-7 with a 4.05 ERA. The Rockies are on the cusp of being “sellers” at the trade deadline after going 9-22, but I think they put it together here in this very favorable situational spot. Great value on the hungry home side tonight.

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies.

T.M. Selection: Braves/Nationals under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER)

Two teams known for their offensive prowess go head to head in this series. Two pitchers who come in red hot also collide though and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel has had issues with the Nationals in the past, but in his last start he gave up two runs over six innings to go along with 12 strikeouts in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Royals. The Braves lost two key sluggers as well recent in Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson. Nationals’ starter Patrick Corbin is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA overall, but he’s 5-1 with a 1.85 ERA in ten games vs. Atlanta lifetime (Corbin also enters off a strong performance, going six scoreless vs. Colorado in front of the home town crowd.) I look for these starter to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals.

T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* U of U BOB)

The Yankees have easily been the best team in the AL this year, but the Red Sox have easily taken the first three games of this four-game series. But I think that New York will bounce back and find a way to get the job done in the finale. Domingo German is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA for the Yanks this year, while Chris Sale is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA for Boston. Sale’s sure looked a lot better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign. German comes in off his worst start of the season, getting knocked around for eight runs over three innings, he’s been decent throughout his career vs. the Red Sox by posting a 4.10 ERA over three appearances. But this pick is more about New York fighting for respect here after getting man handled so easily over the first three games of this series (note as well that the Yanks are already 5-1 this year when playing with triple revenge vs. an opponent.) This one has upset written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10*)

Adrian Sampson is horrible. He’s just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA this year. But so too is Oakland’s Homer Bailey, who is 8-7 with a 5.42 ERA. Besides Oakland comes in sputtering right now having lost three straight. Bailey looked decent in his debut for the A’s, but then he got blasted in an 11-1 loss to the Astros in his next outing. Bailey’s faced the Rangers twice this year (while with the Royals) and he’s been destroyed, posting a 10.13 ERA and losing both contests badly (16-1, 6-2.) Sampson faced the A’s in June and pitched his only complete game of his career in the 3-1 win. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers.

T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (8*)

The Cubs’ Jon Lester has struggled of late, but I think there’s no need to hit the panic button. Overall Lester is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA, but he’ll be confident here knowing that he’s 5-3 with a  2.35 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Brewers. Anderson has been great recently as well and he’s 5-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 12 games vs. Chicago, but note that the Brewers are already just 18-20 (-8.1 units) this year after having won two of their last three games. Conversely note that the Cubs are 112-76 (+12.8 units) the L2 years following a loss. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs.

T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8*)

I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on the home dog. Chicago is looking to break a four-game slide. After becoming the fastest team to hit 200 homers in a season, I think the Twins take a step ack here after yesterday’s 6-2 win. Ivan Nova has had plenty of success vs. the Twins in the past and I think that he and Minnesota starter Martin Perez are more evenly matched than what this line would suggest. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done in the end.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox.

T.M. Selection: Pirates/Mets over (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence. Zach Wheeler is 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA for the Mets, while rookie Dario Agrazal is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Pirates. Wheeler last pitched on July 7th, allowing six runs over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Phillies. Pittsburgh will be desperate to break a six-game slide, but Agrazal is likely to have his hands full here, as note that the Pirates have seen the total fly over the number in 25 of 38 this year when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5. Additionally note that the Mets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of 17 this season in the same position. This number is a tad low, play the over.

T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Mets.

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8* BANKROLL BUILDER)

Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers will most likely win the World Series this year, but I think they’re going to stumble in the opener of this series in the Nation’s capital. Anibal Sanchez has been “lights out” for the Nationals, going 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last nine starts. The Nationals have only lost four of their last 17 at home and I expect Washington to get back on track after last night’s loss rare ninth inning loss to the Rockies. In my opinion, the stage is set for the slight upset.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals.

T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* MONEY-MAKER)

I think the Rockies and German Marquez have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one despite facing Reds’ ace Luis Castillo. Marquez is 9-5 with a 4.99 ERA this year, while Castillo is 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA. Colorado won for just the second time in its last 11 outings after winning 8-7 in the ninth inning in Washington on Thursday. Both Marquez and Castillo come off strong outings, so I’m calling the starters a “wash.” Note though that Colorado is interestingly 9-5 (+5.8 units) already this season after playing six or more consecutive road games, while Cincinnati is just 1-6 (-5.3 units) this year off a one run loss vs. a division rival. This one has upset written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies.

T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10*)

Jose Berrios is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA for the Twins, while Lucas Giolito is 11-4 with a 3.12 ERA for the White Sox. Berrios is 0-1 with a  3.45 ERA over three July starts. Giolito has been a bright spot for the Chi-Sox all season long and he enters off a gem vs. the Rays, allowing one run with nine strikeouts over seven innings in the victory. Note that he pitched five shutout frames vs. Minnesota on June 30th in Chicago already this year and I believe he’ll do it again tonight.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox.

T.M. Selection: Yankees/Red Sox under (10*)

Masahiro Tanaka is 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA for the Yankees, while Rick Porcello is 8-7 with a 5.61 ERA for the Red Sox. This is the first time the teams have met in Boston this season. These two pitchers met in London in a two-game series and neither made it out of the first inning. Porcello gave up six runs, while Tanaka was also rocked for six as well. Clearly something about the atmosphere/surroundings played a part in each of these normally steady hurlers performance that day. Both sides feature plenty of home run power, but I think the overall situation points to a lower-scoring “duel,” as I look for these hungry hurlers to battle deep into the latter frames as they set out to atone for their earlier disappointing performances. This number is a tad high. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (8*)

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry visiting underdog. Neither team has been mathematically eliminated. San Diego bounced back from a series opening loss with a 7-2 win on Wednesday and I look for it to build here. The Mets are tied with the Pirates for the second to worst record in the NL and they’re no ten games under the .500 mark. Jacob deGrom remains a bright spot for the Mets and while he’s 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA over his last 11 starts, the Mets are just 3-8 in those games. Eric Lauer has scuffled in July, so he certainly won’t be lacking for motivation either. I think New York is over-priced here.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Padres.

T.M. Selection: Royals/Braves under (10* TRADE-MARK)

Two red hot hurlers collide in this interleague contest and I believe that runs will be at a premium. The Royals’ Brad Keller is 6-9 with a 4.18 ERA, while the Braves’ Julio Teheran is 5-6 with a 3.61 ERA overall this year. Keller though is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA with 16 K’s over 20 innings of work this month, while Teheran has posted a tiny 1.53 ERA in June spanning 17 2/3’s innings of work. I think the writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. Considering the recent form of these starters, I think this number is a little high, play the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Braves.

T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BANKROL BUILDER)

Marcus Stroman is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA for Toronto and he could be throwing for the Jays for the very last time tonight. Stroman is one of the big names rumored to be shipped out by the trade deadline, so clearly the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be lacking for motivation today. Toronto looks to build off its 2-1, ten-inning victory last night vs. Shane Bieber, who is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA. Note that Stroman is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven appearances vs. Cleveland, while Bieber is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two career appearances vs. Toronto. I like Stroman at home though in what I believe to be a very sharp “spot bet.” Play on Toronto.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays.

T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (8* MONEY-MAKER)

I think that Chris Bassitt and the hungry A’s have much more than just a “punchers chance” vs. Justin Verlander and the Astros. Bassitt is 7-4 with a 3.96 ERA, while Verlander is 12-4 with a 2.99 ERA. The A’s won 4-3 in 11 innings last night and I expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Bassitt is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA four career appearances vs. the Astros. Verlander is 13-6 with a 2.63 ERA in 21 career appearances vs. the A’s. Note though that Oakland 35-23 (+10.3 units) this year following a victory, while Houston is just 4-5 (-6.3 units) this season after allowing four runs or less in five straight games. Great value on the hungry dog.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 A’s. 

T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10*)

I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego is just 7-12 vs. southpaws this season, while New York is 9-5 in its last 14 at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This one has upset written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets.

T.M. Selection: Padres/Mets under (10*)

I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 vs. left-handed starters, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of 11 as a home underdog. This number is a tad high. 

T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets.

T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*)

I think Daniel Hudson and the visiting side will pull off the slight upset on the road here vs. Chris Archer and the Pirates. The Cards rail lied for 6-5, ten inning victory, capped off by a grand slam by Paul Goldschmidt. These teams are moving in opposite directions, with the Cards having won eight of ten, while the Pirates enter on a 2-8 skid. Note that Hudson is 4-1 in his past six road starts (he’s also 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five appearances vs. the Bucs.) Archer continues his “hit or miss” campaign and I think he’s ripe for the picking here. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/D-Backs under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK)

Aaron Brooks is just 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA and while he’s been “hit or miss” in a starters role for the lowly Orioles, this play is almost entirely based upon Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who is 8-6 with a 3.92 ERA this year and who is rumored to be on the trading block. Ray will want to be at his best for any possible suitors, which includes the Yankees. Ray comes in on top form, having won three straight trips to the hill, allowing a combined six runs over 19 innings with eight walks and 23 K’s in that span. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 14 this year after allowing one run or less, while Arizona has seen the total go under in ten of its last 14 at home when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. This number is a tad high.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 D-Backs.

T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (10* GAME OF WEEK)

Homer Bailey is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA for the A’s after dominating the Mariners in his first start for his new club, holding Seattle to two runs while striking out six over six innings on Wednesday. Bailey is 8-6 with a 4.69 ERA overall this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Houston throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Astros’ Gerrit Cole is 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Oakland, however I think that Bailey can match him inning for inning tonight. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog, which won’t be lacking for motivation sitting 6.5 games back of their host. Play on Oakland.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 A’s.

T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* MONEY-MAKER)

The White Sox return home after a 2-8 road trip and I think that the hungry Marlins will add to their misery here in their first start back in friendly confines. The Fish won’t be lacking for motivation here either after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Chicago hands the ball to Ivan Nova, who is 4-9 with a 5.86 ERA and who is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA over his last 10 2/3’s innings of work. The Marlins’ Trevor Richards is 3-11 with a 4.24 ERA and he’s been at his best on the road, coming in sporting a very respectable 3.52 ERA (despite a 1-3 record.) Miami is interestingly 5-2 (+4.6 units) this year already vs. the AL Central, while Chicago is just 1-3 vs. the NL East. Great value on the undervalued underdog. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins.

T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8* MONEY-MAKER)

German Marquez is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA this year for the Rockies, while James Paxton is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA for the Yankees. Colorado comes in highly motivated after getting outscored 19-7 so far. Would anyone fault the Yanks for taking the foot off the gas after 23 wins in their last 29 games? The Rockies are on a six-game losing streak and will be leaving everything they have on the field to break the slide. This one has “upset” written all over it.

T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Rockies.

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* CASH MACHINE)

Mike Soroka is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA. Clearly the Braves rookie has been exceptional this year, but Anibal Sanchez and the hungry Nationals won’t be going down without a fight today. Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts already vs. the Braves and he hasn’t lost to them since 2012. Washington is also 10-6 (+6.5 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Atlanta is just 14-15 in its last 29 off a one run win off a division rival. As mentioned off the top, I think the hungry visiting side offers great value in this spot.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals.

T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*)

The Cards come in with considerable momentum, having won six of eight out of the All Star Break and I look for it to carry it over here. St. Louis was in a 7-0 hole on Friday, before then finishing with a 12-11 victory. After that deflating setback, I think the Reds are ripe for the picking despite sending ace Luis Castillo to the hill. St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is just 6-9 with a 4.15 ERA this season, but he comes in off his best start of 2019, throwing his second complete game of his five-year career vs. the Pirates on Monday (he’s a respectable 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA in his career vs. Cincinnati.) Castillo most recently earned a win in his first start back from the break despite not being at his best, allowing three runs off seven hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA in seven career match ups vs. the Cards.) I like Mikolas to match Castillo inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe the value swings to the under valued underdog. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards.