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T.M. Selection: Red Sox runline.

The Red Sox enter the second half as the hottest team in MLB. They're only one game back of second place New York and three of the Jays for the division lead now after nine straight wins. Lucas Giolito has gone 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA and 37 K's over his last six starts. I think he'll match Colin Rea inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value invariably swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's the case here. The value though lies in grabbing the visitors on the runline option in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Mariners runline.

Of all the teams in MLB, I think that Detroit has the potential to suffer the greatest amount of regression after a super hot start. I think the same can also be said about their ace Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.02 ERA). The Mariners won't be lacking motivation here after a though 0-3 showing at the Yanks this week. I like Luis Castillo (5-5, 3.31 ERA) to match Skubal inning for inning and for the Mariners to, at the very least, keep this one competitive throughout; great value on Seattle on the runline option!

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Seattle.

T.M. Selection: Mariners.

The Mariners have dropped the first two games of this series, but I'm expecting them to bounce back here in this favorable starting pitching matchup. Marcus Stroman is just 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA for the Yanks, while Bryan Woo is 8-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.96 WHIP for the Mariners. Going to take some time for Stroman to re-gain his form, and I think Seattle is the correct call at this price and considering the circumstances; play on the Mariners!

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Seattle.

T.M. Selection: Rays.

The Rays are still 21-17 on the road this year despite losing three of their last four, including yesterday's series opener by a score of 5-1. Detroit has won four in a row and looks poised for a letdown here finally as well. But, ultimately, this one favors Tampa because of the starting pitching matchup. Give me Pepiot over Flaherty in this matchup and for Tampa to answer back after yesterday's loss. Lay the short price with the Devil Rays!

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Rangers.

If this was four years ago, deGrom would be a -200 favorite here on the road vs. Kikuchi. The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing that deGrom is back to his usual dominant self. He's 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Kikuchi is 3-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. These teams have similar numbers across the board, but deGrom looks like he's on a mission right now over this first half and I'm expecting him to easily outduel his counterpart; lay the price with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Texas.

T.M. Selection: Giants/A's under.

Game 1 went over in the A's 11-2 win, but Game 2 went under in the Giants 7-2 victory. I'm anticipating another lower-scoring battle with Birdsong going for the Giants and Lopez for the A's. This one has "duel" written ALL over it; the play is on the under!

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 San Fran.

T.M. Selection: Astros/Dodgers under.

The Astros won yesterday's opener 18-1. Can the Dodgers respond? Probably! But I'm expecting a "duel" here between two capable starters after yesterday's outlier outcome. LA goes with ace Shohei Ohtani, who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA, while the visitors counter with ace Framber Valdez, who is 9-4 with a 2.72 ERA. This number is high, so the play is on the under!

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 LA.

T.M. Selection: White Sox/Dodgers over.

The first two games have gone under the number, both Dodgers' victories. However, with two shaky starters going against each other in the finale of this interleague contest, I'm expecting some explosive offense finally. The Sox going with Civale, and the Dodgers turning to May. Look for these guys to exit early and as a result, look for these bullpens to then get torched as well. This number is low, so I'm playing the over!

T.M. Prediction: 9-6 LA.

T.M. Selection: Rangers.

Tomoyuki Sugano started off great for the Orioles, but he's since tanked over the last month-and-a-half, posting an ERA over 8.00 and a WHIP over 2.00. Nathan Eovaldi is trying to work his way back from injury. He gave up 3 runs over 3 innings in his first start back from over a month off. The veteran was on pace for his best season of all time before that. I think he's the correct call here, even in a limited capacity. Lay the price with confidence.

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Texas.

T.M. Selection: Rangers runline.

No need to overthink this one. Baltimore managed the 10-6 win in the series-opener last night, but with its ace on the mound, I expect Texas to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Orioles hand the ball to the volatile Brandon Young (0-2, 7.11 ERA), while the home side counters with Jacob deGrom (8-2, 2.08 ERA). Enough said! Look for the revenge-minded home side to lay the hammer down in this one with deGrom on the hill!

T.M. Prediction: 6-1 Texas.

T.M. Selection: Kansas City Royals runline.

Seattle is only 20-19 at home. The Royals are just 19-21 on the road, but they're 27-13 on the runline on the road. They have the far superior starter here going in Michael Wacha (4-7, 3.33 ERA), over the Mariners George Kirby (1-4, 5.40 ERA). Kirby has been worse at home, going 0-2 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA. Great value here on KC on the runline option in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 KC.

T.M. Selection: Marlins/Arizona under.

The first two games of this series have flown over in the Marlins' upset wins. But with two very hungry starters facing off here in Quantrill and Rodriguez, I'm expecting a classic "duel." With the majority going one way on this wager, I'm going full-on contrarian; this number is now a little TOO high, so the play is on the "under!"

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Arizona.

T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks.

I like Arizona to bounce back after yesterday's tight 9-8 series opening loss to the Marlins. Brand Pfaadt is only 8-5 with a 5.49 ERA for the D-Backs, but I still love him here over his shaky counterpart Sandy Alcantara, who is 4-8 with a ballooned 6.69 ERA. Lay the price with confidence.

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Arizona.

T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks.

No need to overanalyze this one. This could/should in fact be a much bigger line for Merrill Kelly and the home side. Perez is an absolute "gas can" and after winning four straight, I say the Marlins are also poised for a massive letdown here. Lay the price with confidence, Arizona rolls!

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Arizona.

T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers.

These teams have split the first two games, but I like deGrom in this matchup against Young. It's a huge pitching mismatch working in favor of Texas. Yes, the Rangers are only 16-25 on the road this year, but the Orioles are just 17-20 at home. Lay the price with confidence here and expect a blowout in my opinion!

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Texas.

T.M. Selection: Yankees.

The Yankees dropped the opener yesterday but I anticipate that they'll bounce back big here on Tuesday in what I believe is a big time starting pitching matchup that's working in their favor. Chase Burns is making his MLB debut tonight for the Reds after going 7-3 with a 1.77 ERA over 16 innings in the mintors. Chase may very well go on to become the next Nolan Ryan, but I say he's in WAY over his head here facing Yanks' starter Carlos Rodon (9-5, 3.10 ERA). Lay the price and expect a decisive victory!

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 New York.

T.M. Selection: Red Sox/Angels OVER.

Boston dropped two of three at San Francisco over the weekend. They could have a difficult time getting back on track handing the ball to Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.95 ERA), who has been very inconsistent from one game to the next. Boston will have an opportunity here though facing shaky Angels' starter Kochanowicz (3-8, 5.38 ERA), who has also struggled with his performance this season. Everything points to this total flying well over the number between these two hungry sides!

T.M. Prediction: 8-7 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Nationals runline.

Washington has been competitive and I think it'll keep being competitive here in the finale of this three-game series in LA. The Dodgers won the opener by a score of 6-5, then Washington bounced back with the 7-3 victory yesterday. I had the Nats on the runline yesterday, and I think they offer tremendous value again here on Sunday afternoon. Mike Soroka is just 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA for the Nats, but Shohei Ohtani is only 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA for the Dodgers. Clearly, Ohtani is going to immediately improve moving forward, but I still feel that he's drastically overpriced here on Sunday afternoon. The outright is possible again, but the play is on the Nats on the runline option.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Washington.

T.M. Selection: Nationals runline.

Washington is looking to avoid another long losing streak. It lost 6-5 in the opener of this one. The Nationals though are 20-16 on the road with the runline. LA is just 19-23 in trying to cover the runline at home. There's great value taking the road team on the runilne in LA so far this season, but with two evenly matched starters going H2H, I'm expecting another very tight battle here on Saturday as well (Washington goes with Irvin, the Dodgers counter with May). The play is Washington on the runline.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Washington.

T.M. Selection: Twins.

Milwaukee is a poor 17-20 on the road, while the Twins are a great 20-12 at home. The Twins have gotten a lot healthier of late with the return of sluggers Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner over the last few weeks. Jacob Misiorowski is still a big question mark for Milwaukee despite his short-term numbers. The Twins' Joe Ryan (7-2, 2.93 ERA), is the corret call here in my opinion. Lay the price with confidence, Twins roll!

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Giants.

San Francisco will dig deep here to snap the four-game slide. That includes yesterday's series opener. Logan Allen is a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA for the visitors. Justin Verlander is still looking for his first win of the year for the Giants. He was just re-activated from the 15-day DL. He's 0-3 with a 4.33 ERA. At this price, in this revenge spot, and considering the losing streak, I feel we're getting supreme value here on San Francisco.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 San Francsico.

T.M. Selection: Padres/Diamondbacks under.

Arizona has won the first two games of this divisional series, including an 8-7 victory last night. But now here in the finale, I'm expecting a very defensive "duel" between two really good starters, with SD going with Nick Pivetta (6-2, 3.48 ERA), and the home side ocuntering with ace Merrill Kelly (6-2, 3.18). This one has "duel" written all over it!

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Arizona.

T.M. Selection: Guardians.

Cleveland dropped the opener here 7-2, but with what I believe to be the superior starter in this matchup taking the hill for them today, I expect the Guardians to bounce back. Cleveland goes with Tanner Bibee, who despite a 4-6 record owns a respectable 3.81 ERA this season. The home side counters with the volatile George Kirby, who is a sub-par 1-3 with a ballooned 6.53 ERA. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value!"

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Jays/Phillies UNDER.

Two really good starters going head-to-head here and I expect them to shine. Kevin Gausman is 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA for the Jays, while Ranger Suarez is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA for the Phillies. Expect a classic "duel," so the play is on the under!

T.M. Prediction: Philadelphia 3-2.

T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals.

Just a complete mismatch on the mound here. Whoever the Brewers decide to trot out, I'm basing my pick 100% around the Cardinals' starter Sonny Gray, who is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this year. The Cards will be leaning heavily on their ace today after four straight losses. This is an "action" play on St. Louis, based around the current form of its starter Gray this evening!

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cards.

T.M. Selection: Yanks/Royals under.

The first game of this series flew over the number in the Yanks 10-2 win here yesterday, but with two quality starters going head-to-head on Wednesday, I'm anticipating a classic "duel" in Kansas City on Wednesday night (the Yanks going with Schmidt, and the Royals countering with Bubic.) This number is high in my opinion, so the play is on the under.

T.M. Prediction: NY 2-1.

T.M. Selection: LA Angels.

I like LA to build off its 7-4 series opening win here last night. Mitch Spence (2-1, 4.09 ERA) is still unproven for the A's. Give me Jose Soriano (4-5, 4.11 ERA) at home. In my opinion, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Great line value here on the surging home side.

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 LA.

T.M. Selection: Guardians.

The Reds are just 15-17 on the road, while the Guardians are 18-13 at home. Cincinnati starter Wade Miley (0-0, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP) will obviously improve moving forward, but I still like Luis Ortiz (3-6, 4.02 ERA) in this spot at home, and feel that he and the Guardians could/should in fact be much larger favs in this spot. And that swings the value here to the home side. Lay the price with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/A's over.

Game 1 stayed under the number in the A's 5-4 victory, but Game 2 flew over in the Orioles 7-4 win. I'm expecting another slug-fest here in the finale. Tomoyuki Sugano (5-3, 3.04 ERA) is poised for regression here on the road in my estimation, but the bottom line is that I just don't trust A's starter Jacob Lopez (0-4, 7.20 ERA), who continues to be in the starting rotation out of necessity. This number is low!

T.M. Prediction: 8-7 Baltimore.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/A's over.

The A's won 5-4 in yesterday's series opener, but Baltimore has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a loss as a road fav. vs. an opponent. We have two suspect starters in this one, with Baltimore going with Charlie Morton (2-7, 6.20 ERA) and the A's countering with Luis Severino (1-5, 4.54). Expect these guys to "get the hook" early and for that to help in pushing this total well "over" the number before it's all said and done.

T.M. Prediction: 8-7 Orioles.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/A's under.

In what I expect will be a competitive battle, I'm going to recommend a play on the under in this one. Dean Kremer (5-5, 4.70 REA) gets the call for the Orioles and he's coming off his best outing of the year by beating the White Sox, allowing one run over six innings. I expect the veteran to build off that performance. The home side counters with JP Sears (4-5, 5.05 ERA), who is also off a strong performance, allowing two runs over five innings in an unfortunate no-decision to Jays. This number is high for sure, so the play is on the under.

T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Baltimore.

T.M. Selection: LA Angels.

The Angels have take the first two games of this series and I believe they'll find a way to win the third as well. The bottom line is that this is a pitching matchup that favors the visitors. The Angels roll with Jose Soriano, who is 4-5 with a 3.41 ERA, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito, who is only 1-1 with a 4.78 ERA. Look for the red-hot Angels to continue roll!

T.M. Prediction: 6-4 LA.

T.M. Selection: Reds.

No need to overthink this one, as this is just a plan old starting pitching matchup that works in favor of the home side. And consider the talent discrepancy, I absolutely feel we're getting great line value here. The visitors go with DL Hall, who is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Great stats in the short-term, but the sample size is WAY too small. The advantage goes to Reds' starter Andrew Abbott, who is 5-0 with a 1.51 ERA. Lay the price.

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Cincinnati.

T.M. Selection: Giants.

Ryan Bergert is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Padres. Perhaps Bergert will go on to become the next Nolan Ryan, but as good as he can potentially become, I still think he's going to have a difficult time facing the Giants in his first big-league start. Landen Roupp, who is 3-4 with the 3.54 ERA is the correct call in this case. San Diego won 1-0 in extra innings last night, but I expect the home side to respond in this favorable starting pitching matchup. Lay the price with confidence.

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 San Francisco.

T.M. Selection: Angels/Red Sox under.

The Angels won last night's opener as a sizeable dog and while that total flew well over the number, everything points to a "duel" here in the rematch on Tuesday in my opinion. The bottom line here is that we have two very good starters going head-to-head, and I think they'll be the difference-maker for us in this one, with the vistors handing the ball to Yusei Kikuchi (1-5, 3.06 ERA), and the home side countering with Brayan Bello (2-1, 3.83 ERA). This number is high for sure.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins.

I like Joe Ryan (5-2, 2.57 ERA) and the visiting Twins to "draw first blood" here in this AL series. Ryan has a tiny 0.83 WHIP. Not to take anything away from A's veteran Luis Severino, who despite owning a sub-par 1-4 record, still sports a respectable 3.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Severino is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in three career starts vs. Minnesota and 0-4 with a 6.20 ERA in seven home starts this year. Ryan is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two career starts vs. the A's. Lay the price with confidence here and expect a blowout once it's all said and done!

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Twins/Mariners under.

These teams have split the first two games of this three-game series, and each has flown well "over" the posted number. I'm unsure who will come out on top here in the finale, but I'm definitely expecting a "duel" finally between two really good starters. Chris Paddack is 2-5 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for the Twins, while Luis Castillo is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA for the Mariners. With each throwing deep into this one like I believe they will, the "under" becomes the savvy move as far as the total is concerned in my opinion!

T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Seattle.

T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers under.

LA won last night's opener for a score of 8-5, but with these two super quality starters going head-to-head, everything points to a classic "duel" on Saturday in my opinion. Will Warren (3-2, 4.09 ERA) gets the call for the Yanks, while Landon Knack (2-2, 5.22) counters for the Dodgers. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and for this contest to finally be dominated by the men on the mound. 

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 LA.

T.M. Selection: Brewers/Phillies under. 

Milwaukee is just 11-18 on the road this season, while Philadelphia is 19-9 at home. Despite those fact, I'm anticipating a bit of a "duel" here in the opener of this interesting National League (non divisional) series in Philadelphia on Friday night. Milwaukee goes with Quinn Priester (1-2, 4.23 ERA), while the home side counters with Taijuan Walker (2-3, 2.97). These guys are poised for a big performance and with each "going deep" like I believe they will, the "under" does indeed become the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Philly.

T.M. Selection: Rangers on the runline.

Toronto is now 10-16 on the road after last night's 2-0 loss, while Texas is 18-11 at home (including going 17-12 ATS). We really respect what Paxton Schultz has done for Toronto in the limited amount of time he's had this year, going 0-0 with a 2.53 ERA and a 13:3 K:BB. He's been called up from Triple-A again to make this start and I feel regression is imminent in this difficult road venue. The home side counters with the clearly superior Tyler Mahle (5-2, 1.80 ERA), who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox in his last outing. No need to hit the panic button though if you're a Rangers fan obviously, as it was the first time Mahle had allowed three or more runs in a start this season. Look for the veteran to continue the hot start to his 2025 campaign and for the Rangers to not only win tonight, but to do so in blowout fashion.

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Texas. 

T.M. Selection: Twins.

The Twins won two of three at home to the Royals, but they've now lost two in a row after dropping last night's series opener here by a score of 7-2. I think Minnesota bounces back here though in what I feel is a significant favorable starting pitching matchup for it. With the win, the Rays improved to just 17-18 at home. The visitors hand the ball to veteran Joe Ryan, who is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA and how owns a ridiculous 35:3 K:BB over his last four starts, allowing just two runs in that stretch spanning 25 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Taj Bradley, who is 4-3 with a 4.61 ERA and who has looked better of late, but he's still completely overmatched here against the red-hot Ryan in my opinion. At this price, the revenge-minded visiting side is worth the price of admission.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Minnesota. 

T.M. Selection: Marlins/Padres under.

We don't need to "overthink" this one. I'm basing this pick almost entirely upon the form of the starting pitchers. Miami is just 8-15 on the road, while San Diego is 16-8 at home. The Marlins just took two of three at the Angels though, and the last two games stayed "under" the number, including yesterday's 3-0 victory. All signs point to another low-scoring affair here with Ryan Weathers (1-0, 1.80 ERA) getting the call for the visitors. Weathers most recently allowed on run over five innings and struck out four with no walks in a victory over the Cubs last time out. The home side counters with Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.49 ERA), who is off an unfortunate loss to Toronto despite giving up just two runs with no walks over five innings. Vasquez has a 14:2 K:BB over his past three starts and there's no reason not to believe he won't carry that momentum over here. This number is high.

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 San Diego.

T.M. Selection: Mets.

LA won the opener 7-5, before New York then bounced back with a 5-2 victory on Saturday. Now, here on Sunday night I'm expecting the home side to once again figure out a way to deliver the goods. The bottom line for me is that this is a complete mismatch on the mound as far as the starting pitchers are concerned (also consider that LA is just 13-12 o the road, while NY is 18-6 at home), with Landon Knack (2-1, 6.17 ERA) getting the call for the visitors, and Kodai Senga (4-3, 1.43) countering for the home side. Considering the talent discrepancy between these starters, I feel we're getting great line value here on the home side to get the series victory. Lay the price with confidence.

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 New York.

T.M. Selection: LA Angels.

The Angels have won seven in a row. At some point they're going to lose a game, but it's not going to be in this favorable matchup. The Marlins are a terrible 6-14 on the road and they hand the ball to the volatile Sandy Alcantara (2-6, 7.99 ERA), who I expect to once again struggle in this difficult road venue vs. this incredibly hot hitting line-up. The home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 3.50 ERA), who has a golden opportunity here to finally punch his first victory of the season. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 LA.

T.M. Selection: Giants on the runline.

Kyle Bubic (4-2, 1.66 ERA) gets the nod for the Royals, and as gooas he's been to open the 2025 campaign, I'm still giving the nod to the home side's Robbie Ray (6-0, 3.04). Ray owns a tiny 2.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Royals, while Bubic is 0-1 with a 2.03 ERA in three career appearances vs. the Giants. KC has been much better at home though, going just 9-13 on the road, while the Giants are 16-7 in San Francisco. Bubic is the one about to take a major step back here, as I expect Ray to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. I look for San Fran to win by a sizeable margin, so the play is the Giants on the runline option.

T.M. Prediction: 6-1 San Francisco.

T.M. Selection: Mariners/Padres under.

The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series as sizeable underdogs, winning Game 1 by a score of 5-1, and Game 2 by a score of 4-1 yesterday. Everything definitely points to another lower-scoring duel with these two starters battling in my opinion as well in the finale, with the M's handing the ball to Bryan Woo (4-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), while the home side counters with Michael King (4-1, 2.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). This one has "under" written all OVER it!

T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Padres.

T.M. Selection: LA Angels runline.

The Angels won yesterday's opener by a score of 6-2 as -300 underdogs. They have a legit shot here in my estimation to do it again on Saturday, but overall I feel the value is to instead grab the visting side on the runline option. The Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw, who makes his 2025 debut. He made just seven starts for the Dodgers last year. He had a successful stint in Triple A, finishing with a 3.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 12 innings, but I still favor Angels' starter Tyler Anderson, who is 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA, who has conceded three runs or less in every outing so far this year. Great value on LA on the runline in this one.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Angels.

T.M. Selection: Mets/Yanks under.

With two quite good starters battling in the opener of this IL Subway series, I'm expecting Game 1 to indeed be dominated by the men on the mound. The Mets go with Tyler Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), while the home side counters with Carolos Rodon (4-3, 3.29, 0.97.) These guys have been difficult to score on this year and I expect them to dominate the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this much-anticipated Subway Series battle. This number is high, so the play is on the under!

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Yanks.

T.M. Selection: Phillies/Guardians OVER.

The first two games of this three-game IL series have been relatively low-scoring, but I'm finally anticipating a "slug-fest" on Sunday night. Cleveland won Game 1 by a score of 6-0, then Philly won on Saturday by a score of 7-1. Zach Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA) has been solid once again for Philadelphia this season, but his counterpart today Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30) has been consistently inconsistent from game-to-game already this season. I expect an offensive battle here in the finale of this three-game IL series, so the play is on the over.

T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Philly.

T.M. Selection: Jays/Mariners OVER.

Seattle lost the opener 6-3 last night, but the Jays are still only 7-12 on the road, and the Mariners are still 12-7 at home. The bottom line here is that we have two volatile pitchers going head-to-head in this one, with the Jays going with Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.66 ERA), and the home side countering with Logan Evans (1-1, 7.20 ERA). Everything points to another high-scoring affair, so the play is on the over.

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Seattle.

T.M. Selection: Rays runline (IL GOM)

After dropping the first two games of this three-game interleague series by scores of 8-4 and 7-0, I like Tampa to, at the very least, keep this one tight until the end and to earn the comfortable cover on the runline option, which I feel is offered at a great price here. Jesus Luzardo is 3-1 with a 1.94 ERA for the Phillies and it's difficult to say anything negative about the 27-year-old, so I'm not even going to bother. He's simply in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" in my estimation vs. the now desperate home side. Note as well that Luzardo has struggled big time against the Rays throughout his career, going 0-3 with a ballooned 6.20 ERA over four career starts. The Rays go with Ryan Pepiot, who is 2-4 with a 4.23 ERA, and he's never faced the Phillies. Either way gentlemen, I say that Tampa is the correct call and that the Phillies get caught looking ahead to their series at Cleveland starting on Friday. That said, at this price, my offical call is to grab Tampa on the runline option.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Reds runline.

I feel Cincinnati has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright, but I feel more comfortable laying reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Brady Singer 4-1 (3.24 ERA) gets the nod from us over his counterpart, Atlanta's AJ Smith-Shawver (1-2, 4.26.) The Reds are playing well, 9-7 on the road and they come in undervalued in this one. Great value here on the Reds on the runline option!

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cincinnati.

T.M. Selection: Rays runline.

The season has just begun and there's a lot of baseball still to be played, but Tampa won't want to waste these early-season divisional matchups either, especially after having previously dropped four in a row. Tampa is now 15-18, while New York is 19-14. The Rays are getting better starting and bullpen pitching right now and I think that carries over in the finale of this three-game set. Taj Bradley (2-2, 4.58 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays, while the Yanks counter with Will Warren (1-1, 5.63.) Bradley is 1-2 with a 3.44 ERA in three career outings vs. the Yanks. Warren has yet to pitch out of the fifth inning this year. Bradley has been up and down with his performance this year, but I still give him the big advantage in this starting pitching matchup. The Rays got a big win last night and I believe that momentum carries over. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa. 

T.M. Selection: Tampa runline.

After dropping the opener of this series yesterday by a score of 3-0, I like Tampa to, at the very least, bounce back and keep this one close. Tampa is now desperate to snap an overall four-game slide. Here's a good opponent to get back on track against, as Yanks' starter Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 5.52 ERA), has been hit-or-miss with his ocnsistency from game-to-game. Same thing with Rays' starter Zack Littell (1-5, 5.03 ERA), who actually is coming off his first win after allowing two runs over five innings over the Padres on Sunday. Look for Littell to continue to progress and for the hungry visitors to at least earn the cover with the runline.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Rays runline.

This is an important early season divisional battle. I think the Rays have a legit shot at winning this one outright. Tampa is 5-4 on the road, while New York is 10-5 at home. Off three straight home losses to the Royals, clearly the Rays are desperate to snap the slide. New York went 1-2 at Baltimore earlier this week. Ryan Pepiot (2-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) has been solid for Tampa and he's coming off a gem, giving up one run over six innings in a victory over San Diego. I look for him to carry that momentum over here. And the home side counters with Max Fried (5-0, 1.19 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), who has been outstanding to open the 2025 campaign. In fact, a little TOO outstanding in my estimation, as these early sparkling numbers simply are unrealistic to maintain much longer moving forward. Regression is now imminent for Fried and I look for Pepiot and the Rays to take advantage.

T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tampa.

T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers money line

The White Sox are 7-22 this season so this is a reasonable price on the Brewers to get involved in a "fade Chicago" situation. The White Sox are 1-9 in night games this season. Milwaukee is 10-7 in night games on the year. Chicago has been held to 3 or less runs scored in 18 of the last 22 games. The Brewers have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of the last 13 games! Milwaukee has averaged 5.5 runs per game in those 13 games. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, this is a solid high-value situation on the stronger overall team with the better lineup. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Milwaukee Brewers

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers run line

Even with some uncertainty about who the Dodgers will start here, I like fading Alcantara in this spot. Also, the Dodgers off the 1-run win last night but should have won by much more and that is why we get some value here with plus money on the run line.  LA is 13-3 at home this season while the Marlins are 4-8 on the road this season.  The Marlins have allowed 37 runs last 5 games and Miami's Alcantara has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.2 innings over his last 3 starts so his form is certainly in question right now.  The Marlins have lost each of his last 2 starts by a margin of 3 or more runs and this looks like another one of those the way he is going. LA has the stronger overall lineup and is at home and look for a big home blowout here. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Los Angeles Dodgers

T.M. Selection: New York Mets money line

The Nationals won yesterday's game 8-7. Washington has gone 1-3 the last 4 times they were at home and off a win. The Mets were on a 17-5 run before yesterday's loss and they have only lost B2B games a single time this season. In other words this is a great spot for a bounce back and the Mets Canning has an ERA that is two full runs better than Williams this season. Also the latter is getting hit hard this season and all these factors plus the better bullpen has me all over the road favorite in this one.  

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 New York Mets

T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies money line

The Phillies finally got their confidence back yesterday as they exploded for 10 runs and now they build off that win here. Nola is so much better than his 0-5 record shows and he has been showing signs of snapping out of his early season ups and downs. Certainly he has pitched better than the numbers show and also this Phillies lineup has hitters with solid success against Taillon and it continues here. Small road dog upset on the way here. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Philadelphia

T.M. Selection: Royals/Astros OVER

The Royals confidence is boosted by their winning streak and they should have no trouble with Wacha here. Wacha is 0-3 on the season and just does not have dominant stuff. We get a low total here because of the long-term reputation of Valdez and the fact both teams have trended toward lower-scoring games. However, also note that Valdez got destroyed in most recent road start and I look for him to get roughed up again here. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Houston

T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres money line

The Padres have been so strong at home so this is a major advantage for them here. The Rays also in a tough spot since last night they were in Arizona while the Padres were sleeping comfortably last night in their own beds after a nice day off after returning from their road trip.  The rested Padres have dominated at home this season and TB had struggled on the road this season until surprising B2B wins over the Diamondbacks in Arizona. We get line value here because Baz has good numbers for Tampa Bay early this season. The key here is that the Padres are priced low and yet King has looked very good on the mound plus they are at home and rested and TB has often struggled to score runs. All San Diego here. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 San Diego

T.M. Selection: Rays / Diamondbacks Under

Rasmussen has ben great for Rays. Burnes should be solid at home here and has enjoyed pitching at home throughout his career (with Milwaukee many years). This one looks like a pitchers duel as the Rays are not hitting all that well this season. Yesterday's game did go over the total but this one returns things to normal. Both bullpens have been respectable this season and I look for runs to be tough to come by here. Rasmussen has an 0.87 ERA this season and Burnes has looked sharper in his last two starts which included one at home. He will take advantage of facing a Rays lineup that often struggles to produce many runs. Rays have scored just 8 runs in last 6 losses and these are all over the past week or so. They struggle again here. 

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Arizona

T.M. Selection: Atlanta

This will NOT be Strider pitching. Take action on the pitching match-up as this is a bullpen game for the Braves. The fact it is a bullpen game is giving us great value here because this line is only -135. The Braves have won 4 in a row and they are 7-2 at home this season. The Cardinals have lost 5 in a row and are 1-10 on the road this season. Enough said!  

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Atlanta

T.M. Selection: San Diego 

Cease has been up and down but we know the long term with this pitcher. Valdez has been rocked in 2 of last 3 starts and really looks off. When you compare how these two teams are hitting early this season there is no comparison. San Diego has been the better team at the plate plus they have the bullpen edge and they also have the starting pitching edge here the way I see it. This all adds up to nice underdog value in this one and I will not pass it up. The Padres entered this series with a 15-4 record on the season. Now off B2B tight losses and looking to avoid the sweep, note that San Diego has yet to lose 3 straight this season. Also, Houston has won B2B games for the first time this season. That said, I certainly don't foresee them making it 3 straight. Valdez has been inconsistent and the Astros as a team have been inconsistent as well. Padres bounce back here. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 San Diego

T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals

The Rockies are 3-15 this season. Even though they are back home now they are not as strong of a lineup as they used to be. So being at home and looking to outslug teams is just not the Rockies MO these days either. Colorado is simply a bad team and Dollander has struggled with the home run ball. He had that issue in spring training and now in the regular season he already has allowed multiple homers in each start. Gore is a solid left-handed starter for the Rockies are 0-4 against lefties and overall 0-6 last 6 games and that run is headed for 0-7 for the Rockies the way I see it. The Nationals have not been great this season but they are better than Colorado plus they are coming off a shutout loss plus they have a pitching edge as Gore is off to a good start this season with a 3.52 ERA in 4 starts. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Washington

T.M. Selection: Angels / Rangers OVER

Kumar Rocker is 0-4 with a 5.87 ERA in his MLB career. He had a rough spring training too so I am not surprised to see him struggling early this season. Jack Kochanowicz is 3-7 with a 4.33 ERA in his MLB career and is also having some struggles early this season. The Angels have the #2 slugging percentage this season in the AL as only the Yankees rank above them. The Rangers have not been scoring great this season but they did notch 11 hits yesterday and can build off that here. They face an inexperienced starting pitcher that has had some struggles plus an Angels bullpen that has struggled this season too and ranks in the bottom of the majors for bullpen ERA. Los Angeles entered this series having averaged 6 runs scored in the 11-game stretch before this series. They should bounce back here against Rocker. 10+ it is here! 

T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Rangers.

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers runline.

1) Such a huge overall difference between these teams with a team considered a World Series favorite hosting a team that is one of the worst in the league again this season. The Rockies also continue to have such massive road struggles each season.

2) Bobby Miller makes his first start this season and struggled last season but he now takes on a Rockies team that struggles to score runs when on the road. Miller can get going again here.

3) Colorado is 3-14 overall and 1-10 on the road this season. Even with a pitcher, German Marquez, that can be good at times, they just can not keep up here. The Rockies just do not have a strong enough lineup and they are road-adverse plus their bullpen has struggled. Colorado's first loss this season was by 1 run but all 13 since then have been by 2 or more runs! 10 of 13 Dodgers wins by at least 2 runs and this one will be too!

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers runline.

1) Such a huge overall difference between these teams with a team considered a World Series favorite hosting a team that is one of the worst in the league again this season. The Rockies also continue to have such massive road struggles each season.   

2) Landon Knack had a bad first start this season but he showed what he could do in last season and now takes on a Rockies team that struggles to score runs when on the road. Knack can get going again here.  

3) Colorado is 3-13 overall and 1-9 on the road this season. Even with Feltner on the mound they just can not keep up here. The Rockies just do not have a strong enough lineup and they are road-adverse plus their bullpen has struggled. Colorado's first loss this season was by 1 run but all 12 since then have been by 2 or more runs! 9 of 12 Dodgers wins by at least 2 runs and this one will be too!

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Dodgers.

T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates runline.

1) Brad Lord is a rookie for the Nationals and he lasted only 3 innings in his first ever MLB start last week. When he exits this game he will be followed by a Washington bullpen that has the highest ERA in the major leagues.  

2) Paul Skenes is off an unusually tough start at home but he is 12-4 with a 2.14 ERA in his young MLB career and has a .196 batting average against. I expect the Nationals to struggle against him in this tough match-up on the road.   

3) Washington is 1-5 on the road this season. Pittsburgh has had a tough start to this season but is happy to be back home where they have won 3 of last 4 games. The Pirates have struggled at the plate this season but did go score an average of 5 runs per game in their first 4 at home before lower-scoring games in the last two. Perfect spot here for them to bounce back. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Pirates.

T.M. Selection: Phillies.

The Phillies are off the big win yesterday and now have a big pitching edge here with Wheeler over Liberatore on Sunday afternoon as well. Philadelphia lost Friday's opener but was in a tough spot after losing at Atlanta in a late night rain-delayed extra innings affair. That was a unique situation that favored the Cardinals. However, outside of spots like that where Philly was at a huge disadvantage, they have been consistently successful this season and they do hold the match-up edges here with better lineup and the pitching edge too. We have to lay a price here but it should prove to be well worth it. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Rockies / Padres OVER

Padres won 8-0 yesterday and San Diego stays hot at the plate but, this time, the Rockies get their bats going too. Colorado takes advantage of facing Kyle Hart who has been a career minor-leaguer and he is already struggling in his first two starts for the Padres this season. San Diego should pound the inexperienced Chase Dollander here as well. Dollander is a rookie and he struggled in his first outing this season and this was after a shaky spring training as well. He got a lot of strikeouts in the spring but had issues with command and with allowing big hits. San Diego takes advantage of facing Dollander here plus a struggling Rockies bullpen. Easy over here with, unlike yesterday, both lineups pounding the ball in this one in beautiful evening weather in San Diego. 

T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Padres.

T.M. Selection: Mets / Athletics OVER

This ballpark has played out small so far as the temporary home of the Athletics in Sacramento. That is why you are seeing a big total here but, in my mind, it is going to prove to not be big enough. I fully expect double digits for runs here as Athletics home games totaled 67 runs in the first 5 games here before a 2-1 home loss for Athletics Wednesday. The big total here is certainly not a case of oddsmakers error and the big run scoring games resume here after the rare pitchers duel with San Diego. Canning and Sears are starting pitchers off to decent starts this season but both are a bit over-valued here as a result too. Athletics bullpen has struggled this season too. 10+ it is here! 

T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Mets.

T.M. Selection: Phillies / Braves UNDER.

Pitchers duel here. Schwellenbach and Luzardo both have looked fantastic this season and both bullpens are settling in. Yesterday's game only got to 4-3 and this one could be a 3-2 or 2-1 battle considering the way these two red hot starters have been throwing thus far! Under! Under! Under!

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Phillies.

T.M. Selection: Blue Jays / Red Sox OVER. The Blue Jays scored 6 runs yesterday and now face struggling Tanner Houck. Boston was held in check yesterday but very familiar with Kevin Gausman and should resume their hot hitting at home here after being held down at home here in first two games of series. Red Sox scored 52 runs in the 6-game stretch heading into this series with Toronto. Over! Over! Over! T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Red Sox.

T.M. Selection: Brewers / Royals OVER.

The Brewers bullpen has been awful this season and they are likely going with a bullpen game here. The Royals are starting Lorenzen and his strikeout numbers were down in spring. I look for Brewers bats to get going here after their 11-1 loss yesterday. Trouble for Milwaukee is that their pitching just can not be trusted right now. Over! Over! Over! 

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Royals.

T.M. Selection: Mets / Astros OVER.

The Mets Canning was horrible on the road last season with an 0-10 record and 6.06 ERA with the Angels in his starts as a visitor. Pitching at Houston will not be easy for him I am sure. The Astros Arrighetti went 2-9 with a 5.68 ERA in his evening starts last season. Look for him to struggle as well here. With consecutive low-scoring 3-1 games to open up this 3-game series, the total in the betting markets is being held lower than it should be in the 3rd game. The bats should wake up as they face pitchers who struggle situationally as I detailed above. Over! Over! Over! 

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Astros.

T.M. Selection: Athletics / Mariners UNDER.

These teams combined for 6 runs yesterday but the game also had the least hits (8) of any on the board on opening day yesterday. We get value here with a total at 7 and neither team feeling too comfortable at the plate just yet. Based on the number of hits, yesterday's game should of been a 3-1 type game instead of 4-2 and we take advantage with extra value here. Oakland's Springs has fantastic career numbers and also has thrived when used as a starter. Seattle's Castillo is a wily veteran that has been particular tough to hit at home in Seattle the last two seasons. Under! Under! Under! 

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Mariners.

T.M. Selection: White Sox / Angels UNDER.

Very dreary ugly weather in Chicago for this one and runs should prove tough to come by. Angels lineup was a big weakness last season and the White Sox are expected to be the worst team in the majors this season. Burke was a solid pitcher in his September call-up last season and should stifle the Angels lineup. Kikuchi was great last season after he went to the Astros and now he goes to the Angels and I expect that success from Houston to carry right over to the Halos. Under! Under! Under! 

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Angels.

T.M. Selection: Yankees.

1) The Yankees turned this series on its head with that huge 11-4 win yesterday. That changes everything now even they are down 3-1 in this series.  

2) The Yankees have won 3 of last 4 home games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game. Dodgers have lost 2 of last 3 road games and allowed an average of 8 runs per game.

3) Gerrit Cole has allowed only 4 earned runs in 17 innings in last 3 post-season starts and this included a strong outing versus the Dodgers. 

4) Jack Flaherty has allowed 15 earned runs in 12 innings in his last 3 road starts and this includes getting pummeled in his only post-season road start. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yankees.

T.M. Selection: Yankees/Guardians OVER.

1) The pitcher for the Yankees is Carlos Rodon here. He struggled badly against the Royals in his only start so far in this post-season.   

2) The pitcher for the Guardians is Alex Cobb. He also had a short and tough outing in his only post-season outing and that was against a weaker Tigers lineup and now has to face this potent Yankees lineup.   

3) Cobb facing a Yankees team that has now won 11 of 17 games and averaged scoring 5.1 runs in last 16 games of that run! The last three Yankees games have been unders but this followed 8 of 9 Yankees games totaling 8 or more runs.

4) I like the value here plenty with this low total at 7.5 runs. Overall the Guardians have won 11 of 18 games and scored well in all their victories over the Tigers in that ALDS as they averaged 6.3 runs in those wins!     

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Yankees.

Line: 7.5

T.M. Selection: Yankees/Royals OVER.

1) The pitcher for the Yankees is Gerrit Cole here. He struggled against the Royals in Game 1 of this series and now has to face them at Kansas City.   

2) The pitcher for the Royals is Michael Wacha. He also had a rough outing in Game 1 of this series as he struggled with command of his pitches against this potent Yankees lineup.   

3) Wacha facing a Yankees team that has now won 8 of 12 games and averaged scoring 5.5 runs in last 11 games of that run! The last two games in this series have been unders but this followed 8 of 9 Yankees game totaling 8 or more runs.

4) I like the value here plenty with this low total at 7.5 runs. Overall the Royals have often struggled at the plate late in the season and into the post-season but their confidence level at Cole is high now and they get him at Kauffman Stadium this time around!     

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Yankees.

Line: 7.5

T.M. Selection: Yankees.

1) The Yankees are 7-2 last 9 occurrences where they come into a game off a loss.  

2) The Yankees have scored 5.7 rpg last 10 games. The Royals have scored only 2.1 runs per game last 15 games! 

3) Clarke Schmidt with a 1.39 ERA in his 8 road starts this season! Royals Seth Lugo only 5-5 with a 3.84 ERA after the All-Star break and has a higher home ERA than road ERA this season. 

4) I like the value with the overall better hitting team also holding a pitching edge here and in a nice situation considering their 78% run in games when coming off a loss. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yankees.

T.M. Selection: Padres.

1) San Diego swung momentum in this series with their blowout road win at Dodger Stadium on Sunday which tied this series up at 1-1.  

2) Dodgers get a ton of respect from betting markets so this line, though moderate at -150, is still absolutely too low when you consider that the Padres are at home and have a huge pitching edge here. 

3) Buehler has not impressed this season for LA while King has been fantastic for the Padres. Buehler winless in 7 road starts with a 6.53 ERA this year. King 6-3 with a 2.15 ERA since the all star break. 

4) Padres were one of the hottest teams in the league since the all star break and they carried a ton of momentum into this post-season. Much more confident team than past San Diego teams. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Padres.

T.M. Selection: Orioles.

1) Baltimore off a 1-0 shutout loss and should hit much better against Lugo today.  

2) Lugo was hit hard by the Orioles when he faced them this season. Baltimore's Eflin has a 2.66 ERA in his home starts this season. 

3) Baltimore is 3-0 L3 times when off a loss in which they were held to 3 or less runs. Orioles had won 3 straight and 7 of last 10 games before yesterday's home shutout loss.    

4) Orioles were averaging 5.6 runs a game last 10 games before getting shutout yesterday. Kansas City, including the 1-0 win yesterday, has been held to 2 or less runs scored in 9 of last 12 games!

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles.

T.M. Selection: Padres.

1) Tough spot for Atlanta after having to play a double header yesterday and then fly west to San Diego to immediately start this Best of 3 Wild Card series.  

2) Looks like Braves are starting Thompson here with King on the mound for Padres.  

3) While King and the Padres have been resting in San Diego, the Braves did not even know if they were going to make the post-season until they got that big win yesterday in Game 2 of the double header versus the Mets.  

4) Padres have been one of the hottest teams around ever since the All-Star break while the Braves had cooled off recently with just a 15-13 record last 28 before getting their playoff clinching win yesterday. San Diego is on a 43-19 run.

T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Padres.

T.M. Selection: Yankees.

1) The Yankees are 9-2 last 11 times when they have entered a game on a streak of 2 or more losses.  

2) The Orioles are off B2B wins but since the All-Star break are 1-9 L10 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2+ games.  

3) Cole starts for Yankees and wants to make up for rare bad start versus the Red Sox in last home start. He so often dominates in his outing and will make up for the poor one versus Boston.  

4) Burnes starts for the Orioles here and he has been in good form again in September but 3 of the 4 starts were at home. In August when 3 of 5 starts were on the road plus he faced some tougher match-ups, Burnes had a very ugly month and gave up a lot of hits. Tough match-up for him at Yankee Stadium and opposed by Cole.

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yankees.

T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks runline.

1) Arizona got crushed 11-0 by the Giants yesterday but they have a huge pitching edge Wednesday with Zac Gallen over Mason Black! 

2) Even though Gallen has given up some big hits in recent starts he has been tough to hit overall this season and is one of the top pitchers in the league when he is on. Gallen has been a little off at times recently but this is still a guy that is 13-6 this season overall and has a 3.51 ERA at home. Last year at home he was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA.  

3) Mason Black is a rookie and is 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA this season! After an embarrassing home loss yesterday, I am confident the Diamondbacks will bounce back strong at home here. Big margin win here for Arizona as 17 of last 19 wins by at least a 2-run margin on the final score.

T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Diamondbacks.

T.M. Selection: Braves.

1) The Braves and Mets in a key battle as they look to secure a post-season spot! Right now the Mets have a small lead on the Braves but this series could be what springs everything for Atlanta here and I like them at home.  

2) The Braves have Spencer Schwellenbach starting and he is 6-3 since start of July and working on his 3rd consecutive month producing an ERA that is under 3.20 as he has having a strong September as well.  

3) The Mets going with Luis Severino here and he has a 4.80 ERA on the road this year! He gave up 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings the last time he faced the Braves and that was in New York.  

4) The line is a bargain in this price range as the pitching match-up edge lies with the home team and the Braves have won 4 of 5 and scored 7 runs a game during this hot stretch. The Mets off B2B wins but have lost 3 of 5 on the road and Severino's road struggles resume here!  

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Braves.

T.M. Selection: Blue Jays +113.

1)  Blue Jays lost a high-scoring battle yesterday but I just can not see the Rangers bats, which had been struggling, being able to do much of anything here. 

2)  Living in Canada, I follow the Blue Jays closely and Bowden Francis has been absolutely incredible on the mound since the All-Star break. Since then he has a 5-2 record and  1.83 ERA and opponents are hitting only .127 against him which is unreal. 

3)  The Rangers counter with Cody Bradford here and he is off a very rough outing. Bradford allowed 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings at Arizona in his most recent start. 

4)  This is excellent road dog value here against an over-rated Rangers team that fell apart down the stretch run of the season.  Prior to yesterday's win, Texas lost 5 of 6 games and were outscored 37 to 12 in those 5 losses! The Jays had cooled off recently too yet they won 3 straight before yesterday's loss and I like them plenty here with Francis on the mound as they bounce back from yesterday's loss. Jays 3-0 L3 when off a non-extra innings loss. 

T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Blue Jays.

T.M. Selection: Rangers/Blue Jays OVER.

1) The pitcher for the Blue Jays is expected to be Chris Bassitt and he had a good start versus former team in last start versus the Mets but this followed allowing 18 earned runs in 27 innings for a 6.00 ERA over 5 starts.

2) The Rangers Nathan Eovaldi is expected to start here and he has a 4.81 ERA since the All-Star break after having a 2.97 ERA prior to the break.   

3) The Rangers and the Blue Jays both have bullpen ERA numbers that rank them among the worst in the majors. The Jays have the #1 slugging percentage in the AL in the last 30 days. Look for a solid over here as we get a low total of 7.5 to work with.  The Rangers home batting average ranks them in the middle of the pack this season.  They have dropped out of realistic playoff chances but a lot of times batters then relax at the plate and actually hit better once the pressure is off. That is the case with both these teams now. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rangers.

Line: 7.5

T.M. Selection: Brewers/Giants OVER.

1) The Giants are starting Blake Snell here which is why this total is so low but he is not right at the moment. He has exited early in 2 of his last 3 starts and lasted only 4 innings with 8 walks in those 2 starts. I just can not envision him suddenly turning everything around here.   

2) The Brewers are starting Colin Rea here and he has struggled in 3 straight starts including allowing 2 homers in each of his last two road starts. San Francisco is a pitchers park but still the wind is blowing out for this one and the temperatures are a bit on the mild side compared to typical SF weather and I expect some homers again.    

3) Before yesterday's 3-2 loss, the Giants last 7 games had a total of 5 games that totaled 9+runs and this included 3 straight at home! The Brewers also had 5 of last 7 road games totaling at least 9 runs before that 3-2 win yesterday. The bats come back again tonight as both pitchers have not been at their best of late. Look for a solid over here.  

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Giants.

Line: 7

T.M. Selection: Mets/Blue Jays UNDER.

1) The pitcher for the Blue Jays is Chris Bassitt here. He was with the Mets two seasons ago. Then, when he faced them last season in New York, he dominated. Bassitt should make the most of this first opportunity of now hosting the Mets - his former team of 2022.   

2) Bassitt has been in great form and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Bassitt allowed an average of just 1 earned run in those 5 solid outings.   

3) While I respect both of these lineups they surprised me yesterday with an inability to get it done in this match-up and now it will get even tougher today as the Mets start David Peterson here. The New York lefty starter is having a phenomenal season at 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA. Peterson is also in very strong current form!   

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Blue Jays.

Line: 8

T.M. Selection: Mets/Blue Jays OVER.

1) The pitcher for the Blue Jays is uncertain at this point but the Mets Paul Blackburn is expected to start here and he has a 6.41 ERA in 8 road starts this season.  

2) A big key here for me is more about the lineups and the fact that Toronto is at home and so it has much less to do with pitching and I like the value of the over 8.5 runs in a game I expect both teams to reach at least the 4-run mark.   

3) The Mets have a mid-level bullpen and the Blue Jays bullpen ERA is among the worst in the majors. New York has the #1 slugging percentage in the NL in road games this season. The Jays have the #1 slugging percentage in the AL in the last 30 days. Look for a solid over here.  

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Blue Jays.

Line: 8.5

T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles runline.

1) Great value as the White Sox have lost 12 straight games have lost 42 of 46 games overall! Additionally, Chicago has lost 55 of 68 road games this season. The Orioles are 46-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Baltimore has won 3 straight overall plus 4 of last 5 at home.

2) The White Sox are 31-109 this season. The overall aspect of this pitching match-up has me firmly on the Orioles at home. The White Sox Jonathan Cannon has had some strong moments at home but he has struggled consistently on the road with a 1-5 record and a 5.40 ERA and 53 hits allowed in 41.2 innings.

3) The Baltimore starter is slated as Albert Suarez in this one. Suarez is 3-1 at home with a 2.45 ERA in his 9 games there. I like having a strong starting pitcher, some bullpen edge, and overall better team and I grab the value by usage of the run line in this one. -1.5 runs with the Orioles it is! The -155 range is a bargain considering all the factors with this one.

T.M. Prediction: 6-2 Baltimore.

T.M. Selection: White Sox/Orioles OVER.

1) The White Sox are so awful, including their bullpen, and this should play out in the form of big runs in this one just like we saw yesterday.  

2) A big key here is that the White Sox should actually score well because Povich has struggled badly for the Orioles this season including in recent action. Of course Chicago has a pitcher going that is again expected to get hammered as Nastrini is having a nasty year. Yes, the numbers are ugly.   

3) The Orioles are so powerful with offensive production and this match-up should lead to another big performance from them while the White Sox normally quite lineup produces because of facing Povich! Baltimore has scored 5.8 runs a game in last 16 at home and this total is just too low the way I see it. As bad as the White Sox lineup has been they have managed to score at least 3 runs in 8 of 14 games and they are facing a struggling starting pitcher here and Orioles bullpen has had some stumbles recently too. 

T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Orioles.

Line: 8.5

T.M. Selection: Cubs/Pirates OVER.

1) These teams just played a 3-game set in Pittsburgh and all 3 games reached at least mid-teens for runs.  

2) The weather is not favorable for an over here but this has given us a much lower total than it should be. The winds will be rather light. It is not as if severe north winds and brutal cold is moving in. Nothing of that sort so this total at 7.5 is a true bargain.  

3) The Cubs have been so red hot and are piling up wins and amassing huge run totals. These pitchers - Jones and Taillon - just faced these teams in the series in Pittsburgh last week and both struggled. Taillon has been charged with 4+ earned runs in 4 straight starts and 5 of last 6. Jones is a rookie hurler with a 5.59 ERA in road starts this season. I like both teams to hit well again in this series and this total is too low on Monday and I will take advantage with a big play here!   

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Cubs.

Line: 7.5

T.M. Selection: Mariners/Angels OVER.

1) Bryce Miller has dominated on the mound in Seattle but struggled on the road this season with a 4-4 record and 4.75 ERA on the road. 

2) The Angels Caden Dana is a highly touted rookie but is making his MLB debut. Dana has not pitched above Double-A level of the minors and now makes the jump to the majors and faces a strong Mariners lineup. 

3) The Mariners have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of 9 games. The Angels have scored 5 runs in each of the first two games of this series and are looking a little better now that they are back home. LA still has a weakness with its bullpen however and just like the first two games of this series, I am banking on these factors to lead to another one getting to at least 9 runs.  

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Mariners.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/Rockies OVER.

1) The Orioles are one of the top hitting teams in the majors and the Rockies have solid hitting numbers when they are at home. Also, I am expecting this pitching match-up to help lead the way to an easy over here. 

2) The Orioles bullpen has had issues at times this season and the Rockies bullpen has the highest ERA in the majors. That means plenty of scoring in the latter innings of this game is likely as well.

3) The Orioles are starting Suarez and Dodgers starting Gomber in this one. Though Gomber has has some better starts July and August then he did back in June when things fell apart for him, he still does not have good overall numbers and often gets roughed up at home. Suarez has a higher ERA on the road than at home and pitching at Coors Field is no fun and he gave up 2 homers in 5 innings in his only appearance here in his career. 

T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Orioles.

T.M. Selection: Blue Jays/Red Sox UNDER.

1) Red Sox games at Fenway Park are notorious for resulting in some big scoring outputs both for Boston as well as their opponents. However, the pitching match-up here is absolutely leading to a great spot for a solid under here! 

2)  The Red Sox send Kutter Crawford to the mound here and the Blue Jays will have Bowden Francis on the hill for this one. Crawford's mid-range ERA is quite deceiving as he has an opponents batting average of .219 this season and .221 last season.

3) Bowden Francis comes into this start having displayed electric stuff in recent outings! Francis is holding opponents to a .100 batting average this month and he has 34 strikeouts in 27 innings in August! His first two starts early this season were rough but Francis has since been charged with only 7 earned runs in 6 starts! 

T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Blue Jays.

T.M. Selection: Orioles/Dodgers OVER.

1) Yesterday's game stayed under the total but these are two of the top hitting teams in the majors and I am expecting this pitching match-up to lead the way to an easy over here. 

2) Though the bullpen of the Dodgers is solid, the Orioles bullpen has had issues at times this season and barely hung on to last night's game. For me these starting pitchers combined with two powerful lineups is what is leading to maximum value here with this total at 8.5 runs. 

3) The Orioles are starting Burnes and Dodgers starting Buehler in this one! Though Burnes has great numbers on the season he has fallen off a cliff here in August. Burnes has an 8.71 ERA and opponents batting average of .322 in August. Buehler also has slipped up of late plus he is having an overall tough season. Buehler has a 7.36 ERA in his two starts this month since coming back. On the year opponents are hitting .308 against him. 

T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Dodgers.