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T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers.

Indiana won Game 1 and I believe it has a legit shot at winning Game 2. I had a 5% play on the Pacers in Game 1 and the analysis I posted in that pick basically also directly pertains to this Game 2 pick as well (if you haven't had a chance to read that analysis, I'll post it here now: While I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything points to a a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in my opinion. Indiana has consistently been underrated thoughout these Playoffs, both by the oddsmakers and their opponents. That's the case here again in Game 1. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are going to be able to keep their team competitive late, so I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can!) Grab as many points as you can (but don't be shocked by another outright!) 

T.M. Prediction: 115-114 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

While I'm not calling for an outright victory or anything, everything points to a a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in my opinion. Indiana has consistently been underrated thoughout these Playoffs, both by the oddsmakers and their opponents. That's the case here again in Game 1. Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton are going to be able to keep their team competitive late, so I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

Being successful in the Playoffs is about making adjustments. Karl Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and the rest of the Knicks have done that extremely well over the last three games. Time for another Game 7 in my estimation! For the Pacers to be successful at this level, they need to get truly gargantuan games out of both Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton. Yes, the Pacers are 29-11 at home, but they're just 21-25-1 ATS. The Knicks are 24-17 SU on the road. The League would LOVE it is somehow New York could figure out a way to come back and steal this series. It COULD happen. That said, the official call for this play is to grab up as many points as you can!

T.M. Prediction: 110-108 New York.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

I believe that home court advantage DOES matter in this series. The Thunder rolled to two straight victories at home, but Anthony Edwards and the Wolves looked great in their 143-101 destruction in Game 3. Now getting points here in Game 4, it feels like we're getting a "gift" almost. The wrong team is favored here. The Thunder were great on the road this season, but they're just 4-6 ATS in their last ten overall, while Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten. I'm banking on the hungry home side to find a way to deliver the goods here in Game 4 as well. That said, grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 119-100 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota.

I'm not counting out Anthony Edwards and company yet. The Wolves looked good in the first half, but were unable to continue the pressure in the second half. I think Minnesota will keep it competitive in both quarter this time around. OKC lost to Denver at home in Game 1 in the second round, so the Wolves have the blue-print on what to do. Look for Rudy Gobert to play a bigger role here in Game 2 for the Wolves and for the desperate visiting side to do more than enough to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover with all of these points.

T.M. Prediction: 108-106 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Pacers.

These teams are evenly matched in my opinion. Both teams have been undervalued by the bookmakers throughout the playoffs, but Indiana has a legit shot at taking this game outright in my opinion. Indiana had no problem with Giannis, and it destoryed the No. 1 team in the league in Cleveland. New York's competition has been suspect, as Jason Tatum injured himself and we'll never really know if Jalen Brunson and company would have been able to pull off the series victory if the Boston star had played. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 113-111 Indiana.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

These teams were extremely competitive throughout the NBA's regular season, going 2-2 against each other. I'm expecting another competitive matchup here in Game 1, as well as this series. Minnesota rolled through its first two opponents and comes in completely rested. OKC needed 7 gruelling games to get by Denver. The Thunder have looked fantastic during these playoffs at times, but also bad in other spots. I think Game 1 will be another "bad" spot for the Thunder and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming "right down to the wire." Grab the points, Wolves are the correct call!

T.M. Prediction: 108-107 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma City Thunder (WEST-CONF GOW)

This has been a back-and-forth series, but it appears to me as if Nikola Jokic is now running on fumes after having to once again do most of the heavy lifting for the Nuggets in this series. OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six, but I'm expecting Shai and the rest of the home side to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish in Game 5. The Nuggets are still just 22-23-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Thunder are still 31-12-2 ATS at home. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points with confidence!

T.M. Prediction: 121-100 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

I really do feel that New York has a legitimate shot at winning this game outright, but in the end, I'll recommend grabbing the points. Very much like the Pacers, who took both games in Cleveland, then dropped Game 3 at home, only to then take Game 4 last night quite easily as an underdog, I'm expecting a similar thing to happen here in The Big Apple after the Knicks dropped their Game 3 matchup to the C's by a score of 115-93. Previous to that, Jalen Brunson and company had won three straight. Now I think they're going to bounce back big here. Note as well that the Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. It's now the Celtics who are completely overvalued in this spot. Grab the points, Knicks dominate!

T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Wolves on the spread.

Favorites in the NBA Playoffs have had a difficult time this year, but now I believe that the Wolves will lay the hammer down on the Warriors in Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup after Golden State shocked Minnesota in the 99-88 outright victory as a 6-point underdog. So what's the deal in Game 2? How could the Wolves possibly be favored by significantly more here in Game 2 despite getting dominated in Game 1? Easy answer: Warriors' star player Stephen Curry is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Suffice it to say, with the heart and soul of their team no longer shouldering the load and mental edge, I believe the Wolves can "smell the blood in the water." Minnesota and Anthony Edwards had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night as well, and I simply don't see that happening twice. This is a golden opportunity for Minnesota to regain control and momentum, and I expect them to do that here in Game 2, not only but winning large. Lay the points, Minnesota is the play!

T.M. Prediction: 111-80 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets with the points (WEST-CONF GOM)

While I do think that an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the visiting side. While the Rockets are a decent 23-18-1 ATS on the road this year, Golden State is just 18-24-2 ATS at home. And now I once again feel that the Warriors are overvalued in this position. Houston's depth and perimeter defense can into play in Game 5 and I think Fred Van Vleet and company can keep that positive momentum rolling here. The Warriors are now desperate to get the job done here, but I say that Stephen Curry is "out of gas." Again, I'm not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

T.M. Prediction: 103-102 Golden State.

T.M. Selection: Minnesota Timberwolves spread

The road team is not being given enough respect here. The Timberwolves were down by double digits in the 3rd quarter of Game 4 but came all the way back for the big home win. Minnesota continues to dominate with an advantage on points scored inside the paint and they also have a ton of confidence being up 3-1 in the series and coming off the huge comeback win. The Lakers are playing in a pressure cooker right now in LA with those original hopes of Doncic and LeBron leading them to glory now quickly fading away. Now it looks like this team will not even get out of the first round. The Timberwolves won Game 4 even though their big minutes guy off the bench (DiVincenzo) and 2 of the starters (Gobert and Conley) combined to go 5 of 22 from the field! When 3 of the 6 most important players have games like that and yet the team still wins the game, that says a lot! What is also says is that the Lakers are in trouble! That is what I am counting on here and I fully expect a road upset win here but will grab the half-dozen points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 107-102 Minnesota

T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets spread

The home team is not being given enough respect here. The Clippers were down by 20+ points during the Game 4 loss to the Nuggets and that game was in LA. The game ended up being a tight finish but that is also leading to line value here. Had that game ended a blowout like it appeared it was headed toward, the line here likely would be different. As it is we are getting line value here with the home dog Nuggets. If they get another big lead like they had in Game 4 on the road they are certainly unlikely to relinquish it in their own building. That is what I am counting on here and I fully expect a solid home win here but will grab the couple points on offer.

T.M. Prediction: 110-102 Denver

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat spread

The Heat are down 3-0 in the series but this Game 4 is about professional pride as much as anything else. Even if Miami loses this game I don't see them going down without a fight. Miami got ripped in Game 3 and that insures a huge effort here in Game 4 after it was a franchise-worst playoff loss in Game 3. Miami has a good history this season of bouncing back when off ugly low-scoring efforts. Look for the Heat to respond big here after being held under 90 points in the prior game. We have seen this time and time again from Miami when off ugly efforts and also lets not forget they finished the regular season with a very strong run in home games. One bad loss is not going to change everything and the Heat are now undervalued here in this spot. Take advantage by grabbing the generous points. 

T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Miami 

T.M. Selection: Denver spread 

These are very generous points here and I am going to challenge the Clippers to win this by more than 7 points. The Nuggets just blasted in the prior game and that is the kind of ugly loss (margin of 34 points) that will generate a big response from a high quality team in the next game. Remember the Nuggets were the World Champs just two years ago. There is a lot of pride in this franchise and we will witness their A game here after the B2B losses. 

T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Denver

T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic spread These are very generous points here and I am going to challenge the Celtics to win this by more than 4 points on the road. Yes, Boston is a fantastic team but Game 2 was a single-digit margin game most of the entire game and, of course, remember that this game was at Oklahoma City. Down 2-0 in the series and finally back home, you are going to see the best game you will see from Orlando in this series and, for my money, that is enough for the all-important cover here. Similar to what we saw with Memphis yesterday in this spot and they might have won outright had Morant not gotten hurt. So look for a similar big game performance here from the Magic at home! T.M. Prediction: 101-97 Orlando

T.M. Selection: Memphis Grizzlies spread

This is just too many points here and I am going to challenge the Thunder to win this by double digits on the road. Yes, OKC is a fantastic team but Game 2 was a single-digit margin game very late in the 3rd before the Grizzlies had a horrible 4th quarter. Remember this game was at Oklahoma City. Down 2-0 in the series and finally back home, you are going to see the best game you will see from Memphis in this series and, for my money, that is enough for the all-important cover here. 

T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat spread

Miami was only down 8 with 7 minutes to go in the game in the Game 1 match-up. Truly the Heat were inside the big number most of the game so I feel we have value here with a playoff-tested and battle-tested Heat group that is also very well-coached. Miami was outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc so those 5 extra made threes were the Cavs is what resulted in a 21 point win instead of a 6-point win. The zig-zag theory in NBA playoffs has shown time and time again that these things even out. I am looking for the Heat to absolutely give the Cavs all they can handle in this one. Give me the double digits here! 

T.M. Prediction: 108-104 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic spread

Orlando has some hope here as they were leading game 1 by 1 point at the half before Boston pulled away big in the 2nd half for the cover. The Celtics outscored the Magic by 18 points from 3 point land so I like the value that is giving us here as that should even out some from the 6 extra threes that Boston made in Game 1. The points is that "inside the arc" the Magic actually outscored the Celtics by 3 in Game 1. Give me the double digits here! 

T.M. Prediction: 99-98 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons spread

1) The Pistons looked great before a disastrous 4th quarter against the Knicks. Detroit does not have the playoff experience level that New York does but that loss will serve them well in that regard. They bounce back strong here. 

2) Detroit had turnover problems in game one but has not been the norm for the Pistons this season and they should turn it around here. That was an unusual results Saturday that is unlikely to be repeated. The Pistons led Saturday's game by as many as 9 points so getting 7 with them again here is a big value. 

3) The Knicks were only 3-3 last 6 home games prior to that huge comeback win and the value is significant here as the Pistons also had won 3 straight over the Knicks by an average margin of 8 points per game prior to the Game One loss. This is the old zig-zag theory but yes we like playing the opposite of the Game One result when the parameters all line up and this one fits the bill!

T.M. Prediction: 112-109 Detroit.

T.M. Selection: Dallas Mavericks spread

A lot of value with the points here as the Mavericks are undervalued. They are much healthier than they have been in awhile and have had a chance to fully adjust now to life without Doncic. Also, the Kings are without Monk and his contributions will be missed in a key game like this. Even though Sacramento won all 3 regular season meetings, of course this game is priced this way for a reason. You would think the Kings would be a bigger favorite considering the season series sweep and home court edge here. But they are a smaller favorite and that is another reason I am backing the dog here as that is where sharp money is likely headed. Don't let the line fool you on this one! I expect the Mavericks to win outright but will grab the points for added value here in the event they fall a bucket or two short. 

T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Dallas.

T.M. Selection: Atlanta Hawks spread

1) A lot of value with the points here as the Magic are not strong offensively. Orlando has a tendency to win a lot of low-scoring grinders.   

2) Orlando started the season strong and finished the season strong but in the middle was a brutal long-term 17-31 SU stretch. It is hard to trust a team that has a run like that. The Hawks did win 4 of their last 6 games this season and a team with Trae Young is always a dangerous underdog in a team projected to be tighter.  

3) The issue for the Magic here is they are being overvalued because they are at home here. They did win their final 2 home games of the season but this was after a 2-8 SU run. The point is that being priced for home court edge means more underdog value because the home court edge is NOT a big one for the Magic. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-106 Atlanta.

T.M. Selection: DENVER

Rough scheduling spot for Memphis here in a B2B and off a big home game versus the Timberwolves last night. They now had to travel to Denver and they are not only in B2B but 3rd game in 4 nights. Factor in also having to play in high altitude for this one and the set up is perfect for the Grizzlies to get rolled. The Nuggets are strong at home traditionally and are set up well here to dominate as they can build off a win at Sacramento which snapped their losing skid. We lay the points with confidence here.  

T.M. Prediction: 129-114 Nuggets.

T.M. Selection: NEW YORK KNICKS

Knicks getting 4.5 is a huge value here. New York is off a loss but does have Brunson back now.  The Knicks lost in OT to Boston so certainly no shame in that. New York is 5-1 last 6 times they have entered a game coming off a loss. The Pistons are also off a loss but they are slumping so it is hard to expect a bounce back from Detroit here. The Pistons have now lost 4 of 5 and the only win was against a Toronto team that is now 30-50 on the season. Detroit has its work cut out here just to win let alone cover the number here. Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 116-112 Knicks.

T.M. Selection: Atlanta

Huge game for the SE Division title and love having the dog here. Both the Hawks and Magic have sights set on winning this division and Orlando is a little over-valued here as a result of being at home. The road team has actually won both games this season and it would not surprise me to see that run make it 3 straight for the road team here. Either way I like having the +4 points also plus Trae Young is listed as probable for this game so that is a plus for Atlanta as well. Orlando is off B2B wins but is actually 1-4 SU last 5 times when entering a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. Orlando won at Atlanta in the 2nd meeting in February and now it is the Hawks turn to return the favor and win on the home floor of the  Magic. The situational run involving the Magic sees Orlando lose again and improve that "play against Magic" spot to 5-1 (83%). Grab the points! 

T.M. Prediction: 115-110 Atlanta

T.M. Selection: Oklahoma City

The Thunder have WON 18 of 19 games including 11 in a row. Oklahoma City has also won an incredible 11 straight road games! Each of their last 5 wins have been by at least 16 points so laying 6.5 points here means we are testing a 5-0 (100%) situation. Rockets might be without Dillon Brooks too unless he appeals his one-game suspension. The home team has won all 4 meeting this season but you know this game is priced this way per the odds makers strong assessment of this one. The Thunder roll on the road here as they continue to look like the most complete team in the NBA. The Rockets generally don't fare as well off blowout wins in which they score a ton of points and that is what just happened against a bad Jazz team Wednesday. Now they face the best team in the NBA and will possibly be without Brooks too and this should be a road rout the way I see it! Thunder make it 6 in a row in terms of wins by at least 7 points!

T.M. Prediction: 123-107 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: New York

Even though the Knicks are in a B2B they did not to go too hard to beat the downtrodden 76ers last night. Also, though Karl-Anthony Towns was out, this likely had to do more with resting him for tonight's game so his knee could be as strong as possible for tonight's game. Brunson is still out but NY has been adjusting well in his absence. Even if Towns does not play here, the Knicks should stay within single digits here but I do expect KAT to be out there. New York is 5-1 L6 games and has "only the Hawks" on deck and I expect the Knicks A-game here! The Cavaliers are only 4-5 SU last 9 games and if you look at Cleveland's last 17 games, only 4 were wins by double digits. This is too many points as the Knicks are likely viewing this as a statement game and also they have double revenge here.     

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Cleveland

T.M. Selection: Golden State

Even though the Warriors won the most recent meeting they lost by 51 points here a little before Christmas. Golden State, as everyone knows, has been a much different team since the Butler trade. I am confident the Warriors come in here and get some revenge as Memphis is a mess since the crazy firing of their head coach. They have lost 3 straight games now and the Warriors come into this one having won 18 of 23 games. Two teams going in opposite direction and I am sure GS still wants some payback IN Memphis for that disaster in December. Big win here on the road!    

T.M. Prediction: 125-112 Golden State

T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers

The Thunder are a great team but this is too many points. Indiana is 8-2 last 10 games and the only two losses were by a combined 8 points! The Pacers confidence sky high after scoring 162 points in a win over the Wizards in most recent game. Oklahoma City has plenty of big-margin wins recently but there was a SU loss and a couple tighter wins in there and I just can't see them completely destroying this Pacers team the way they have been playing. Also, Indiana lost at home to the Thunder in the first meeting between these teams and they are looking for some payback here. They may not quite get it but this one likely does go down to the wire so the points are a huge value. 

T.M. Prediction: 121-119 Oklahoma City

T.M. Selection: Golden State

The Warriors are angry off the embarrassing loss at Miami in Jimmy Butler's return there as the Heat shot a ridiculous 17 of 25 from deep! Now Golden State will take out their anger on a Pelicans team that will be missing both Williamson and McCollum here. New Orleans continues to give up huge points in their losses and Golden State will not only take advantage and score a ton (especially with Curry likely back) , the Warriors D will also be dialed up a notch after that loss at Miami. Big points to lay on the road but GSW should win this by 20+ points! 

T.M. Prediction: 123-100 Golden State

T.M. Selection: Dallas

The Mavericks could have Anthony Davis back on the floor again after he rested in the loss to the Knicks. Of course Davis is a huge difference-maker for Dallas. Even if he does not end up playing here I do feel the points are too generous. The Mavericks are catching at least a half-dozen points here and the Magic generally struggle to blow teams out as they are not a high-scoring team. Orlando has won 3 straight games but has not had a 4-game run since a big heater way back in November. The Mavericks are showing signs of life again and they will be a force to be reckoned with again here in a game that certainly has upset potential. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-108 Dallas

T.M. Selection: Phoenix

The Suns are at home and as strong as the Celtics are, they do seem over-valued here. Jayson Tatum is likely to miss as he is listed as doubtful for Boston for this one. Phoenix has won 6 straight home games so their confidence is back up. This one has upset written all over it. Boston might already be thinking ahead to a much-needed break as they have 3 off days coming up until they play at San Antonio for Saturday. As for today's game, it is the 3rd one for the Celtics in 4 days and I could see them running out of gas here in the fourth quarter. Home dog is the bet here! 

T.M. Prediction: 114-109 Phoenix

T.M. Selection: Denver

The Nuggets are at home and Jokic should be back as he listed as probable. Giannis might miss for Bucks as he is listed as questionable. Lillard is now out for the Bucks and likely to miss extended time. Spirits have to be hurting for Milwaukee with the new developments on the injury front while Denver happy to be getting Jokic back and should roll at home here. 

T.M. Prediction: 120-105 Denver

T.M. Selection: New Orleans

I was on the Pelicans yesterday and they got the cover though the fell short of the revenge for an ugly 46 point home loss earlier last week against the Pistons. The Pelicans have been dealing with injuries but professional pride kicks in big time here as they are back home in New Orleans and looking to get back to winning. McCollum had a huge game yesterday and Williamson could be back today. Speaking of injuries, this 76ers team is also in a B2B and their roster looks like a mash unit. Philly has been so bad for so long and on the road again in a B2B they will just not be able to hang around against a New Orleans team that is happy to be back home. Philadelphia on a 2-10 run with all 10 losses by at least 7 points. Another ugly one here for the Sixers. This game WILL NOT be decided by a single digit margin as the Pelicans roll here!

T.M. Prediction: 124-109 New Orleans

T.M. Selection: New Orleans

The Pelicans want revenge for an ugly 46 point home loss earlier in the week against the Pistons. The rematch is in Detroit and, other than the Pistons big win at New Orleans, it has been a 3-5 stretch for Detroit with only 1 win by more than a 7-point margin. The Pelicans have been dealing with injuries but professional pride kicks in big time after what the Pistons did to them in New Orleans. This game decided by a single digit margin. 

T.M. Prediction: 117-114 Detroit

T.M. Selection: Raptors.

The Raptors are catching too many points here. Toronto could get some guys back tonight after they missed yesterday's game. The Suns might be without Beal as he ended up leaving yesterday's game very early. Both teams in a B2B but the injury situation certainly seems to favor the Raptors here plus they are a big dog. This game likely to be decided by single digits and possibly even come down to the final possession. The Raptors are 6-2 L8 games and both losses by 3 or less points! That means at +4 points or more, Toronto would be 8-0 ATS last 8 games! The Suns have won only 6 of 21 games and, even if Phoenix wins this, it will likely be a small-margin win given how competitive the Raptors have been this entire month! 

T.M. Prediction: 115-112 Suns

T.M. Selection: Nets.

The Nets are catching too many points here. Cleveland is at home and rolling and having a huge season but Brooklyn off a win versus Lakers and confidence is up a bit based on recent competitive losses as well. The Nets are 8-9 SU last 17 games and only 2 of Brooklyn's last 19 games were losses by more than 18.5 points! Those 2 defeats were by 19 and 21 points. Cleveland wins here of course but falls short of covering this overly inflated number. The Cavaliers have won 14 in a row but only 5 of last 15 Cavs games have been wins by more than a 13 point margin so don't be shocked when a scrappy Brooklyn side hangs around in this one and possibly even keeps it to single digits. 

T.M. Prediction: 118-109 Cavaliers

T.M. Selection: Spurs.

Both teams in a B2B but the Spurs have the advantage of being at home and San Antonio plays this game with double revenge as well. Also, the Mavericks have been a mess ever since the Doncic trade. Davis is still out and now they lost Irving to that horrible injury as well. Dallas is simply severely short-handed right now which makes B2B spots like this even tougher. The Mavs have lost 7 of 8 games and all 7 losses were by a margin of at least 8 points! Spurs have struggled recently on the road but are 3-3 in their 6 most recent home games and all 3 wins were blowouts by double digits and that included wins over the Suns and Bucks. Considering that as well as how bad the Mavericks are playing, one can understand why I foresee another blowout is in the cards here! 

T.M. Prediction: 122-107 Spurs

T.M. Selection: Kings.

The Clippers are not only coming back from a hard-fought comeback win over the Knicks Friday, they face a surging Kings team that is playing with double revenge here. Sacramento has lost both games with the Clippers this season and is out for revenge in this one. The Kings are right behind the Clippers in the standings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU L6 games and the only loss was by just 6 points. The Clippers have won B2B games but this followed losses in 6 of 7 games. LA, in the B2B wins, was only up by 1 point against the Knicks entering the 4th and 2 points on the Pistons entering the 4th. They managed to pull away late in the 4th in both games but they face a much different challenge here as this Kings team is starting to jell and playing some of its best basketball of the season. This will be a payback game for Sacramento and the points are a solid value in case the Kings fall just short. 

T.M. Prediction: 112-108 Kings

T.M. Selection: Pistons.

The Warriors are not only coming back from a road trip, it was a long road trip and they just got back from all the way on the East Coast. The Pistons enter this game off a loss and are expected to have Tobias Harris back as well. That makes this is a super underdog spot. Detroit is 3-1 SU L4 when off a loss and the lone loss was by 3 points and that would equate to a win here since the line is 6.5 points. So this is a 4-0 spot for Detroit and Golden State will be gassed from all the travel and time back east. The Warriors have been hot but only 2 of most recent 5 games have been wins by more than 6 points. The Pistons have revenge here too because they lost at home to Golden State by 3 points earlier this season. This will be a payback game for Detroit.

T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Pistons

T.M. Selection: TIMBERWOLVES.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Oklahoma City hung on to win yesterday's game by 7 at Minnesota and now have the edge of this game being at OKC. However, the Thunder shot ridiculously well from deep in the game Sunday. They made 19 of 35 three pointers. If they hit a normal rate of three pointers they would not have even won the game. Minnesota will likely still be down a couple players here but they will be even more determined here after a rather tight loss yesterday. The Thunder are on a roll but B2B spots are not easy to simply come in and blowout a team. This is particularly true when facing the same team in that B2B spot as well as facing a team that pushed you to the limit and whom arguably should have won the prior game. The Timberwolves will not be daunted by facing the the Thunder team again here and are hungry for revenge after last night's 3-point shooting clinic by OKC. You will see a different level of effort from the Wolves in the rematch. Grab the big points here as this one likely decided by only a bucket or two!

T.M. Prediction: 115-111 Oklahoma City.

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat.

I'm expecting an outright win for Miami here but am going to take the 5.5 points in this battle at Milwaukee. The Bucks have been winning lately but the margin of victory has often been very small. The Heat have some momentum again after a much needed OT win at Toronto on Friday. The Heat have put the Jimmy Butler saga in the rear view mirror and they are ready to make a run here late in the season. Tyler Herro is listed as probable for this game and the rest yesterday helped his shoulder. The Bucks have been shaky, at best, recently and they will struggle to win this game so a cover is nowhere close to guaranteed for Milwaukee either. The Bucks are only 5-6 last 11 games and the 5 wins by an average margin of 6 points while 5 of the 6 losses were by double digit margins. The home team is over-valued here and the Heat will be "in it to win it" here! Upset alert but at least a cover here! 

T.M. Prediction: 112-109 Miami.

T.M. Selection: Los Angeles Lakers.

I'm expecting a "closer than most expect" battle here between these teams. Yes, Denver has the better record and is at home and having a strong season. However, the Lakers are expecting to have Doncic and James both on the floor for this one and they will build off their win at Portland. Also, they have revenge from an embarrassing home loss by 25 points back around Thanksgiving. The Lakers have won 13 of 17 games and one of the four losses was by just 3 points. Tremendous value here with this spread in the +7 range. LA looks to return the favor of the beatdown at home to the Nuggets earlier this season. Though they might fall just short, this one goes down to the wire which makes the points invaluable. Don't be surprised if this one decided on the final possession. 

T.M. Prediction: 121-120 Denver.

T.M. Selection: Warriors.

The Warriors are in a B2B spot but will be ready to go here after the tight loss at Dallas. Of course the trip down to Houston from Dallas is also a very short road trip. Golden State, even if some players require rest in the B2B or have tweaked an injury, will have enough hands on deck to stay inside this inflated number. In fact, they might even get the outright upset here but I am going with the ATS side plus the points in this one. The Warriors, before yesterday's loss, had won B2B games. Golden State is 6-0 SU since early January when off a loss in which they scored at least 97 points but not more than 127 points.  The Rockets also in a B2B spot and have won B2B games but this followed 6 straight losses! Golden State won 2 of 3 meetings this season but lost the most recent one and now Warriors get revenge for the 1 point loss two months ago here in Houston. T.M. Prediction: 109-108 Warriors

T.M. Selection: Pacers

While I do think Indiana can win this game outright, in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points even if it is as low as +1.5 in case the Pacers fall a point short. With both teams off losses there is no question as to motivation here for either side and Indiana has gone 5-0 last 5 times when off a loss. Also, this series has been dominated by the home team. The host has one each of the two games so far this season and the host one each of the first six games in last season's 7-game thriller in the post-season! The Pacers also swept the regular season series last season and have won each of the last 5 meetings between these teams in Indiana. That said, the value is absolutely with the home side here. Home court has been a key in recent meetings between these teams and the Pacers are 6-1 L7 games at home with the only loss to a fantastic Cleveland team. The Knicks have recent losses to the Celtics and Lakers and have allowed 123 ppg last 4 games. New York will not be able to get enough key defensive stops to hold on in this game and the Pacers secure the win in the 4th quarter, if not sooner! The hungry home dog is the bet here. 

T.M. Prediction: 123-115 Indiana

T.M. Selection: Warriors.

I believe the Warriors will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. This is a great spot for the Warriors and a tough spot for the Bucks. Milwaukee is in a B2B spot and got a big win over a bad Sixers team that, even with Embiid back on the floor, is as inconsistent as they come! The Bucks won the game thanks to 24 of 55 from deep as they thrived on 3-points yesterday. The Warriors got a big boost with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler and they are rested here and also are revitalized after the trade. They will be able to blowout this Bucks team here. Milwaukee is without Giannis and that makes a B2B spot like this even tougher to deal with. Milwaukee had lost 6 of 8 before yesterday's win! Golden State is a mediocre 7-6 last 13 games but most of the 6 losses to tougher teams than a Bucks  team without Giannis. Also, after acquiring Butler, there is a different vibe on this GS team and they will be ready here as they appear poised to make a surge with Butler on board. Look for the Warriors to keep their foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 124-108 Warriors

T.M. Selection: Clippers.

I believe the Clippers will not only win this game easily, but do so in blowout fashion. This is a great spot for the Clippers and a tough spot for the Lakers. The Lakers are a mess right now post-trade. Davis is now with the Mavericks and Doncic is in LA but not ready to play yet. This was one of the biggest mid-season star for star trades in NBA history. Unbelievable and it will take the Lakers some time to adjust and Doncic is not even ready to play yet. The Clippers won this match-up by 14 points a few weeks ago and they can do it again here! The Lakers have been winning some games recently so now they are over-valued here. Even though Davis had missed some recent action there is still an upheaval going on in the locker room right now because of his departure. The Clippers are sure to take advantage here and they are looking to respond big off a loss. The Clippers are 3-0 after a loss in which they scored at least 100 points and all 3 of those wins were by more than 10 points! After losing at Toronto, they get back on track here and that streak involving Clippers games improves to 4-0. Look for the Clippers to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points.

T.M. Prediction: 119-101 Clippers

T.M. Selection: Pelicans.

The Pelicans are on a 5-game losing streak but each of the last 3 by a single digit margin and the average margin of defeat was 4 points in those 3 losses. New Orleans is only 7-8 last 15 games but that is certainly much better than their 5-29 start to this season! The Pelicans are in the front end of a B2B at Denver as these teams will meeting again here Wednesday. Only 4 of last 21 Pelicans games have been losses by more than 11 points. I expect this game is decided by a single digit margin as the Pelicans offense has been playing at a very high level. The Nuggets are just back home from a 5-game road swing. They lost 3 of the 5 games and the only 2 wins were each by a 3-point margin. The point is that the big points (ATS) here should come in very handy in this one. Denver has not been dominant recently and has, in fact, only 3 wins by more than 11 points in last dozen games! The Pelicans won the first meeting by 7 points but then lost the second meeting this season by 3 points in overtime. So New Orleans has revenge here too and I expect another game decided by a single digit margin between these teams. 

T.M. Prediction: 122-118 Nuggets

T.M. Selection: Pistons.

The Pistons are off B2B losses but had been playing very well. The road team has won all 3 meetings between these teams this season including double digit blowouts in the two most recent meetings. The last one was in Detroit and the Pacers won by 11 points so the Pistons are out for revenge here. Indiana is off a big win and it was over in France versus the Spurs. Jet lag after the trip will not be easy to deal with here and the Pacers had lost 2 of 4 prior to that game. 1 of the 2 wins was the one against the Pistons in the Detroit 2 weeks ago and you know the Pistons are gunning hard for revenge here. Also, the last 3 times the Pistons were off B2B losses in which the most recent one was by a margin of 20 points or less, Detroit has gone a perfect 3-0 SU! The Pistons dominated the glass in the most recent meeting with a huge edge on the boards but the 3-point shooting disparity did them in. That is unlikely to be repeated here and I take advantage of what is now an inflated line with the Pacers in a tough spot after the travel to Europe. 

T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Pistons

T.M. Selection: Pelicans.

The Pelicans are finally getting healthier and certainly this has shown up in their results on the court. New Orleans has won 4 straight and 7 of 10 and they are well-rested here since their game versus Milwaukee was cancelled due to the snowstorm that hammered the southern US. The Grizzlies also have been hot but they are a modest 7-5 in the past dozen games since facing New Orleans in the most recent meeting. In fact if you look at the last 13 games for Memphis, only 3 of the 13 were wins by more than a dozen points. New Orleans getting 12 here is a solid value as the Pelicans also have double revenge here. The Pels have lost both games with the Grizz this season and those games were decided by 11 or less points and now New Orleans is healthier. In other words, it is reasonable to expect this game to be the most competitive of the bunch so far in this season series and I am grabbing the big dog value with confidence here. Only 2 of last 16 Pelicans games have been losses by more than 11 points. I expect this game is decided by a single digit margin as the Pelicans offense has been playing at a very high level. 

T.M. Prediction: 122-120 Grizzlies

T.M. Selection: Wizards.

Washington has had a rough season and is in current 10-game slide. However, LeBron James is not 100% and Anthony Davis is even worse off for the Lakers tonight as he might not even play. If Davis does play he could be limited here. He is listed as questionable because of multiple injury issues at the moment. The Lakers simply do not have a knack for demolishing teams this season. They are favored by 13 points here yet they have played 40 games and have hardly any wins by more than a 13 point margin. Coming off a big rivalry game with the Clippers and with another tough opponent (Boston) on deck, the Lakers could be a bit complacent here. They are still going to win this game I am sure but I see it decided by single digits and it could be much closer than many are expecting. In 40 games this season, the Lakers have just 3 wins by more than 13 points. Yes, the Wizards are having a rough season but Washington is capable of hanging around in this game and also getting in a wide open back door late if needed for the back door cover.

T.M. Prediction: 117-113 LA Lakers
 

T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics

I like the Boston Celtics to win this game HUGE against the Orlando Magic on Friday. This is a big line,  but I believe that it isn't big enough. The Magic are coming into this game off another loss which is their 10th defeat in their last 16 games! Orlando did defeat the Celtics earlier this season so you know Boston will surely be ready here. Also, the Celtics have fuel added to the fire here because they are off a loss. Boston has an incredible 10-1 record this season when off a loss. Those 10 wins have come by an incredible margin of victory of 21.6 ppg so don't be surprised if they roll huge here at home! I'm expecting a blowout for the home team in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Orlando earlier this season. The Magic continue to have injury issues and are down a few players and are likely to again be without Franz Wagner, a key player, here in Boston Friday. 

T.M. Prediction: 117-94 Celtics.

T.M. Selection: WARRIORS

Really tough spot for the Heat. We lost a heart-breaker here last night with Miami as we had them +3.5 as you know and they lost in double-OT at Sacramento. Not only is this the 2nd game of a back to back now for the Heat, it also is one that features all 5 starters having played 40+ minutes the night before. Making the situation even tougher for Miami, the Warriors just lost to the Kings by a 129-99 count on Sunday. In other words, Golden State is not going to have any sympathy for the Heat here in this B2B spot for Miami. The Warriors are at home and rested plus they are angry off a blowout loss at home and they are catching a very tired team. They take full advantage and my numbers on this one have the Warriors winning by 20 so laying the big points is not an issue here. 

T.M. Prediction: 119-99 Golden State

T.M. Selection: HEAT

While I do think Miami can win this game outright, in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points. This is a big time contrarian play, with the majority of the betting public quick to back the home side in this one. This is because Sacramento is at home and is riding a 4-game winning streak. However, the Kings are in a tough scheduling spot here after a blowout win over the rival Warriors last night by 30 points. The Kings come in to this non-conference match-up possibly flat after such a big divisional win over Steph Curry and Golden State last night. As for the Heat, it is back to back losses entering this game including an ugly loss by 36 points in most recent defeat. It's not what you do when you get knocked down, but what you do when you get back up that matters. Miami gets back up here!  The Kings shot lights-out from all over the floor in Sunday's win, and I don't see that happening again either. With Sacramento having just played last night, there is a situational factor here too. The Kings had lost 6 straight before this 4-game winning streak and Sacramento could already be thinking ahead to their long road trip back east which is on deck. Miami certainly is only thinking about this game as they are desperate to get back on track. The hungry road dog is the bet here. 

T.M. Prediction: 115-110 Miami

T.M. Selection: Grizzlies.

I think Memphis will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Will rest lead to 'rust' here for the home side and an inability to pull away for a blowout? I say no as both teams have been off for a few days and Brooklyn was terrible on the road last season and they are struggling on their travels again this year. The fact that Brooklyn continues to deal with injury issues is not helping matters. The fact that the Grizzlies only have 8 losses this season but 2 of the 8 were against the Nets also makes Brooklyn poised for a massive road loss here in my opinion. Memphis wants to avoid the season series 3-0 sweep and the Nets are 5-8 on the road, while the Grizzlies are 11-3 at home. Memphis has won 9 of 10 games and the average margin of victory was 14 points in those 9 wins. The Grizzlies can hammer a short-handed Brooklyn team here. As mentioned off the top, I say Memphis not only wins this game, but does so in blowout fashion.

T.M. Prediction: 126-104 Memphis.
 

T.M. Selection: Nets

While I do think Brooklyn can win this game outright, in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points. This is a big time contrarian play, with the majority of the betting public quick to back the road side in this one. This is because the Pacers were in the Eastern Conference Finals last season against Boston and many bettors still have that etched in their minds about Indiana while Brooklyn went 32-50 last season! The Nets come in struggling off three straight losses but are already 2-0 this season when they enter a home game on a losing streak of at least two games. It's not what you do when you get knocked down, but what you do when you get back up that matters. Brooklyn gets back up here! The Pacers have lost 3 straight games and are an ugly 1-10 in last 11 road games. Indiana off a loss at Toronto last night and many key players played big minutes in that one. The Nets come into this one with rest and ready to win big at home! The hungry home dog is the bet here. 

T.M. Prediction: 118-110 Brooklyn

T.M. Selection: Kings

While I do think Sacramento can win this game outright, in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points. This is a big time contrarian play, with the majority of the betting public quick to back the road side in this one. This is because Houston has the much better record this season and is riding a 3-game winning streak. However, all 3 Rockets wins in this streak were tight including 2 in overtime, so let's not overreact. The Kings come in struggling off two straight losses but have had only one losing streak of more than two games this season. It's not what you do when you get knocked down, but what you do when you get back up that matters. Sacramento gets back up here!  The Rockets got a season-high 38 points from Fred VanVleet in Sunday's win, and I don't see that happening again either. Houston still only won that game by 3 points and also there is a situational factor here too. The Rockets have a revenge game next as they will be at Golden State facing a Warriors team that beat them in OT in Houston earlier this season. The hungry home dog is the bet here. 

T.M. Prediction: 116-108 Sacramento

T.M. Selection: Knicks.

1) The Knicks finished 14 games behind the Celtics in the Atlantic Division last season. However, based on projections for this season they are expected to close the gap on them in the division.

2) New York added Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and they are expected to be big contributors right away this season.

3) Boston is going to be without Kristaps Porzingis as he had offseason surgery and could miss up to the first two months of the season! That is why, even though New York is without centers Robinson and Achiuwa, the Celtics won't necessarily be able to take advantage here.

4) Boston is favored by 5.5 points here which looks like an open invitation to take the defending champs on their home floor but I am not falling for the trap line! The Knicks are very hungry after the way the end of last season played out and they will play with a chip on their shoulders here and will be in this game all the way. Towns has this Knicks team believing as they already have a big star with Brunson as well. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-110 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Mavericks.

1) The Mavericks come into the finals SU winners in 7 of 8 road games since they lost their road opener vs. LA in the first round.

2) Dallas has been great about making adjustments from game-to-game, and that's exactly what we're expecting here as they now ramp up from the Wolves series to face the Celtics in the Finals.

3) Look for Luka plus Kyrie and company to, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Their defense has been strong enough to hang tough against the big, bad Celtics!

4) Boston swept the Pacers but 3 of the 4 wins decided by a margin between 3 and 5 points. The Mavs are much tougher than Indiana and I look for this one to go down to the final buzzer!

T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

Being successful in the playoffs is all about making adjustments from game-to-game. Dallas came out complacent in Game 4 and it cost it dearly. Now the Mavs will have their hands full with this now re-energized Minnesota side that I believe will not only with this game at home, but do so in blowout fashion. I see this series ending in six games when it goes back to Dallas, but for now I'm rolling with the Wolves here at home to cover this spread in Game 5. 

T.M. Prediction: 110-100 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: Pacers. 

Indiana came close to pulling off the upset in Game 1, and I think it has a legit shot here of doing the same thing in Game 2. Boston looked poor defensively and it's going to struggle again to contain Tyrese Haliburton and company. Myles Turner and Paskal Siakam are also making the most of this opportunity. Boston was just terrible defensively, and that's a big problem in my estimation. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but I think once again it'll come right down to the wire. So grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Celtics.

I think Boston will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Will rest lead to 'rust' here for the home side? I say no. Indiana was terrible on the road this year and the fact that it just upset the Knicks in Game 7 in New York makes them poised for a massive upset here in my opinion. Indiana is 23-26 on the road, while Boston is 41-6 at home. The Celtics are well-rested and will be able to lock down this fatigued Pacers side. As mentioned off the top, I say Boston not only wins this game, but does so in blowout fashion.

T.M. Prediction: 120-100 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Wolves.

While I do think Minnesota can build off its impressive 115-70 victory in Game 6 at home and win this Game 7 outright, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Denver has shown flashes of brilliance this post-season, but it's also been downright terrible at times. I say that the Wolves can smell the blood in the water. Denver is lacking confidence at the worst time, and I say the deep and hungry Wolves will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with all the points they've been afforded here.

T.M. Prediction: 101-99 Minnesota.

T.M. Selection: OKC.

OKC has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 12-7 ATS in its last 19 off a SU/ATS home win in which it was held to 99 or less points in. Dallas has been great defensively, but this Game 6 has the feel of whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last will come out on top, and that's exactly what I'm expecting once the final buzzer sounds. The outright is completely a reality here as well, so you may want to consider "sprinkling" a little on the ML, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the desperate Thunder.

T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Thunder.

T.M. Selection: Thunder (MONEY-MAKER)

While I do think OKC can win this game outright, in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points. This is a big time contrarian play, with the majority of the betting public quick to back the home side in this one. OKC was riding a ten-game win streak before the Game 2 loss, so let's not overreact. It's not what you do when you get knocked down, but what you do when you get back up that matters. The Mavs got 29 points from PJ Washington in Game 2, and I don't see that happening again either.

T.M. Prediction: 110-108 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Mavericks.

The Mavericks lost their opener vs. LA in the first round, and then they bounced back to win the next two outright. Dallas has been great about making adjustments from game-to-game, and that's exactly what we're expecting here. The Thunder are in unchartered territory right now and I think they'll struggle to cover the spread in this one. Look for Luka and company to, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.

T.M. Prediction: 108-107 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Clippers (WEST-CONF GOW)

Yes, Dallas blew out LA 123-93 on the road in Game 5, but I think that the Clippers are too talented and too deep to go down without a fight here in Game 6. They're well coached as well. Also note that the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. Dallas has been inconsistent with its effort and its hard to imagine it looking past LA or anything like that, but the stage is definitely set for a much tighter affair than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. So I'm going to grab the points!

T.M. Prediction: 105-104 Dallas.

T.M. Selection: Magic.

The bottom line here is that I think that the home court advantage will prove crucial in this series. That's so far been the case, with Cleveland winning big in each of the first two games, before Orlando answering in the 121-83 Game 3 victory. I often find that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying "momentum" into a line, and that's the case here for sure, as I do indeed look for the Magic to build off their recent blowout performance.

T.M. Prediction: 104-96 Orlando.

T.M. Selection: Suns (MONEY-MAKER)

Just not counting out Phoenix yet. This is the Suns most important game of the year so far and while they were a complete disaster in Minnesota over the first two games, I believe they can get their act together here now at home in Game 3 and not only win this game, but do so by a sizeable margin. This series very much has the same feeling to me as the Cavs/Magic series. Home court advantage clearly was big for Cleveland for Orlando after the Magic blew out the Cavs in Game 3, after dropping the first two on the road. Look for this series here out on the West Coast to take a similar path.

T.M. Prediction: 109-98 Phoenix.

T.M. Selection: Pelicans.

The Pelicans almost won Game 1 without Zion outright and I believe they have a legit shot to, at the very least, duplicate that performance and make this Game 2 another "nail biter" for the fans. The Thunder looked poor overall in my opinion, as the Pelicans shot horribly. I'd say that OKC's defensive numbers from Game 1 are skewed, and that it was the Pels just having a really poor shooting game, despite Williamson being sidelined. The Thunder have little experience at this level and I think they'll struggle to put New Orleans away in this series. Maybe no outright, but definitely it's going to be closer than what this spread is suggesting.

T.M. Prediction: 106-104 OKC.

T.M. Selection: LA Lakers.

The Lakers had a three-point lead at half-time in Game 1, but then fell 114-103. LA has responded well in this spot for bettors though by going 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. a Western Conference opponent though. This has been a terrible matchup for LeBron and AD, but I think they'll be more efficent here, especially from range. Look for the sense of urgency in which the Lakers play with to be enough to earn the comfortable cover. 

T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Denver.

T.M. Selection: Thunder.

No need to overthink or overanalyze this release in my opinion. The Pels did great to get by the Kings to advance without Zion Williamson, as New Orleans has gone 6-0 vs. Sacramento this season. But now I fully expect the Pels to come up short here in the opener of this contest vs. the fresh Thunder. OKC finished No. 1 and will look to make quick work of this series. Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to take full advantage of this situation.

T.M. Prediction: 116-99 OKC.

T.M. Selection: 76ers.

I think this is a bad matchup for the Knicks. Philly finished averaging 114.6 PPG, while allowing 111.5, while New York averaged 112.8 and conceded 108.2. New York just doesn't have an answer for Philly big man Joel Embiid. While I do think an outright is possible, I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 106-103 Philly.

T.M. Selection: Bulls (MONEY-MAKER)

Just giving this one the "eye test" here. Chicago is playing without Zach Lavine, but has already made that adjustment. The Heat losing Jimmy Butler last time out is really signficant. Chicago is out to avenge a loss to the Heat in last year's Play in as well. While I clearly think an outright is possible, I'm grabbing the points.

T.M. Prediction: 106-100 Chicago.

T.M. Selection: 76ers.

With Joel Embiid back in the line-up, the 76ers enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league after eight straights wins. I really love both of these coaches and understand that experience that Miami brings to the table. But this Philly defense is 100% capable of slowing down Jimmy Butler, and without their star being able to create space for himself, this Miami offense is going to be limited on the road in this diffcult venue. I smell a blowout in Philadelphia this evening!

T.M. Prediction: 110-98 Philly.

T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets.

I'm not expecting any upsets here, as this one sets up well for Denver to blowout the visiting Hawks in my opinion. Atlanta is off the 109-95 loss at Dallas, but with three whole nights off after this before a home game vs. Miami, I believe the visitors will get caught flat-footed here in the thin air of Denver. The Nuggets won't be lacking motivation here after falling 102-100 at the Clippers as 3.5-point favorites last time out. Look for Denver, who has two nights off after this, to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

T.M. Prediction: 121-100 Denver.

T.M. Selection: Celtics.

After back-to-back losses to ATL, I like Boston to push the pace here and get back on track in this challenging matchup. Conversely, after winning three of their last four, including a 107-100 win over Milwaukee here last time out, I suspect a letdown here from the Pels. They lost 118-112 in Boston back on January 29th, and this is just a poor matchup for New Orleans. And that's especially true considering how "locked in" I believe the visiting side will be today. So lay the points!

T.M. Prediction: 123-100 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings.

Dallas has won five straight SU and gone 4-1 ATS over that span. That includes a 132-96 win here at Sacramento three nights ago. Note that the Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 99 or less points in. This is an important little three-game home stretch for Sacramento right near the end of the regular season and I believe it'll regroup here and avenge that setback.

T.M. Prediction: 120-110 Sacramento.

T.M. Selection: Celtics. 

Boston is 57-15 while Atlanta is 32-39. The Celtics play with revenge after a 120-118 loss to the Hawks last time out, and note that the C's are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an oppponent. The Hawks will likely be in the "play in," but the Hawks have several injuries which makes Boston the correct call here. The revenge factor is the difference for me.

T.M. Prediction: 127-100 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Suns.

Phoenix is 41-30, including 19-16 on the road. Denver is 51-21, including 29-6 at home. The Nuggets have won four straight, but they fell 117-107 in OT to the Suns on March 5th, and I think they'll have their hands full here too at home. Phoenix had its three-game win streak snapped in a 104-102 loss at San Antonio, two nights after beating the Spurs 131-106 on the road and clearly getting caught "looking ahead" to this matchup. Phoenix is hungry to improve here and I suspect a very competitive affair in this one. So grab the points.

T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Denver.

T.M. Selection: Cavaliers.

After three straight losses, including a humbling 121-84 loss at Miami just last night, I like the Cavaliers to finally bounce back here at home in this favorable matchup and to take out their frustrations on the lowly Hornets. Note that Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 after 3 or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row. This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs, so look for Cleveland to send the early message.

T.M. Prediction: 115-90 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Cavaliers.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Cleveland is in fact 21-13 on the road, while Miami is just 17-16 at home this season. The Cavs are off B2B SU/ATS losses, so will clearly be motivated. And they also play with the added-incentive of "revenge" after falling 107-104 as 3-point favs at home to the Heat earlier in the week, and note that they're 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a fav. vs. an opponent.

T.M. Prediction: 103-102 Cleveland.

T.M. Selection: Wizards (NON-CONF GOM)

The Wizards are in full on tank mode, but there are still plenty of spots where it makes sense to wager on them and grab up all the points, and this is one of those spots in my opinion. The Kings are coming off two straight victories, but after beating Toronto 123-89 last night, I'm expecting a predictable letdown here. Note that the Kings are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 89 or fewer points in. The Kings have a much more high-profile game at Orlando after this and I think they get caught looking ahead.

T.M. Prediction: 119-116 Sacramento.

T.M. Selection: Wizards.

I think Houston will likely win this game outright, but it won't even come close to covering the spread. Yes, the Wizards are terrible, but Houston, despite winning five in a row, is still just 9-24 on the road. The Rockets return home for three straight after this, so this is a natural "letdown" spot vs. the lowly Wizards. Who do in fact play with revenge after a 135-119 loss at Houston just last week. Look for Washington to be much more competitive here here on Tuesday.

T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Houston.

T.M. Selection: Suns.

I really do see this one coming right down to the wire. Phoenix is a respectable 17-13 on the road. The Suns have won three of their last four, including a 117-111 win at Cleveland last time out. The only loss in that time came against the Celtics at home just last week, falling 117-107, and note that the Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss as a dog versus an opponent.

T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Boston.

T.M. Selection: LA Lakers.

No need to overthink this one. The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the year right now arguably. They catch the Kings off a satisfying home win over the Bucks just last night. LA's only loss in its last four games game against Sacramento at home last week, and note that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread home loss against an opponent.

T.M. Prediction: 124-116 LA.

T.M. Selection: Utah Jazz.

While only 28-36 overall, the Jazz are a much more respectable 19-12 at home thi syear. The Celtics are 50-14 overall and 21-11 on the road, but I say they get caught looking ahead to their home game vs. the Suns next, as this is the finale of their road-trip. The Jazz play with revenge after a 126-97 loss at Boston in early January. They're off B2B losses, but I expect Utah to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door in this revenge-scenario. Grab as many points as you can.

T.M. Prediction: 117-115 Boston.

T.M. Selection: OKC Thunder.

No reason not to believe we'll see a complete blowout here. Memphis is off the 99-92 home loss to Atlanta, but it fell 116-97 to the Thunder here back in mid-December, and I'm expecting a similar final outcome here as well. The Thunder have won B2B games and with three "winnable" home contests here, starting with this one, I do expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

T.M. Prediction: 120-100 OKC.

T.M. Selection: Warriors.

The Warriors are off the 125-122 home loss to the Bulls as 8.5-point favorites, one night after hammering the Bucks 125-90. With Spurs' star "Wemby" expected to be sidelined for this one though, look for Golden State to bounce back here in this favorable spot, as note that the Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their L9 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. Everything points to a blowout here for sure in my opinion.

T.M. Prediction: Golden State 127-100.

T.M. Selection: LA Lakers.

I think it's "all hands on deck" for the Lake Show tonight! The Bucks are a mediocre 16-15 SU on the road this year, while the Lakers are an above average 23-11 at home. The Bucks JUST had their big win streak snapped in a 125-90 loss at Golden State. They've played without star Giannis the last couple games and if he DOES suit up tonight, I think he'll be a "non-factor" as he continues to work through his injury. The Lakers have been trading wins/losses over their last four games and off a listless 130-120 setback to the Kings here last time out, I think this pattern continues. Grab the points though.

T.M. Prediction: 122-110 Lakers.

T.M. Selection: Celtics.

The Warriors have injuries and other issues with their line-up hence the large line. Golden State has won three straight SU/ATS on the road, all as a fav, but note that the Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS road wins in a row. Golden State gets caught "looking ahead" as well to a few nights off, before three straight at home starting with the Bucks. Boston plays with revenge as well after a 132-126 OT loss at Golden State in December. Look for the Celtics, who have won ten straight, to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish.

T.M. Prediction: 130-100 Boston.

T.M. Selection: Utah Jazz.

The Jazz have lost the first two games of their road trip, but they catch the Heat at a good time here. Utah actually beat Miami at home at the start of the season. I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything for the visitors, but it does set up well for the underdog. The Heat return home after going 5-1 on their road trip. They went 6-0 ATS. They lost their final game at Denver. First game back at home = letdown spot! Let's take advantage, I'm grabbing the points in this one and rolling with the Jazz.

T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Miami.

T.M. Selection: MIN - ATS 

I like the Minnesota Timberwolves to win this game against the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday, February 15th. After beating the Blazers by 12 just the other day, the TWolves look to win by even more tonight. Minnesota have now won three straight games and are feeling it again. Portland have lost five in a row. Although Portland kept the last game close throughout, I don't believe that they'll have much luck today. Minnesota was on a back to back and now have had a days rest. Hammer Minnesota tonight. 

T.M. Prediction: 120-100 TWolves. 

Line: -9.0 

Line Parameter: play until -10.5.. 

T.M. Selection: PHI - ATS 

I like the Philadelphia 76ers to win this game against the Washington Wizards on Saturday, February 10th. Entering this game off four losses in a row, this line is very low. Yes, the Wizards competed against the Celtics last night in a very close game. But, this is a Wizards team that still aren't very good. Philly hammered them by 45 points back in December. I'm expecting another dominating performance from the 76ers to get back in the winning column as they do not want to slip any further in the standings. 

T.M. Prediction: 129-105 76ers. 

Line: -4.0 

Line Parameter: play until -5.5.. 

T.M. Selection: POR - ATS 

I like the Portland Trail Blazers to win this game against the Detroit Pistons on Thursday, February 8th. with two bad teams, it's hard to pick a winner sometimes. Having said that, I don't believe that the Blazers are that bad. Yes, their record is pretty sub-par. But, they've got talent on their roster. Detroit just lost Burks and Bogdanovic in a trade with the Knicks. It's going to be a struggle for a team that's already struggling. On the back-end of a back to back, I don't see Detroit competing much tonight. Give me Portland against the spread. 

T.M. Prediction: 119-104 Trail Blazers. 

Line: -6.5 

Line Parameter: play until -8.0.. 

T.M. Selection: Miami Heat - ATS 

I like the Miami Heat to win this game against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday, February 4th. According to many, the Clippers are the favorites to win the championship this season. But, I believe that they still have their problems that they need to resolve before the playoffs start. Winning on the road hasn't been necessarily easy for them this season. Off back to back wins, I've got the Heat upsetting the Clippers on Sunday. 

T.M. Prediction: 111-105 Heat. 

Line: +4.5 

Line Parameter: play until +2.0.. 

T.M. Selection: Denver - ATS 

I like the Denver Nuggets to win this game against the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, January 10th. Even though they've won back to back games, Utah just isn't good enough to win this game against a top Nuggets team. Denver is back on track after beating the Pistons in their last game and should be able to go on another long winning streak now. Utah is just 7-12 ATS over their last 19 games after scoring 130+ in their last game. I've got Denver turning it up a notch on Wednesday, especially with the one extra day of rest. Hammer the Nuggets. 

T.M. Prediction: 123-106 Nuggets. 

**biggest northwest division bet of the season

Line: -6.5 

Line Parameter: play until -8.0.. 

T.M. Selection: MIA - ATS 

I like the Miami Heat to win this game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, December 18th. Although the TWolves have been the best team in the West and maybe even in the NBA so far this season, I still aren't fully convinced that they'll stay like this. Yes, they've got the talent, but I still believe that Anthony Edwards is one more season away from becoming one of the best. He's extremely good, but not quite at the level of some of these superstars quite yet. Miami gets back Herro and Bam this game and should be pretty much back to full strength. They've got depth and they've got the length to guard the TWolves. I'll grab the Heat at home here. 

T.M. Prediction: 118-109 Heat. 

Line: +1.0 

Line Parameter: play until -1.5 (can play ML..) 

T.M. Selection: Atlanta - ATS 

I like the Atlanta Hawks to win this game against the Toronto Raptors on Friday, December 15th. While these teams both played on Wednesday and the Raptors took the victory, I expect a rebound game for the Hawks. Atlanta is still a fairly good team even with the poor record. The've lost five straight games now and need this one to gain confidence. Expect them to get it done. 

T.M. Prediction: 117-107 Hawks. 

Line: +2.5 

Line Parameter: play until PK (can play ML..) 

T.M. Selection: DEN - ATS 

I like the Denver Nuggets to win this game against the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday, December 12th. Denver has shown signs of struggle over the past week or so. However, they still have one of the best starting lineups in the association and I believe that they could be in for another strong playoff run this year. Chicago has not been good whatsoever and they've got guys injured all over. Don't be surprised if this game gets out of hand early. Even on the second game of a back to back, hammer Denver. 

T.M. Prediction: 116-101 Nuggets. 

Line: -7.0 

Line Parameter: play until -8.5..