Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 10

Written on November 4th, 2015 by Jesse Schule in
NCAAF

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – Notre Dame Irish (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)

The College Football Playoff Committee came out with their first Top 10 Ranking this week, and the results were a little shocking. They have the Irish ranked above undefeated BIG12 teams Baylor and TCU in the #5 slot. Notre Dame just barely escaped from Philly with a 24-20 win over Temple on Saturday, in a game that they trailed for most of the fourth quarter. Clemson somehow ended up in the #1 slot, and perhaps that also works in favor of the Irish, who’s only loss was on the road versus the Tigers. That game was nowhere near as close as the 24-22 score would indicate, as the Irish trailed 21-3 heading into the fourth quarter, but rallied to score 19 points. They’ve only played three games on the road so far, and both of their wins were of the “come from behind” variety. They still have two more tough road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford, and it seems highly unlikely that they’ll be able to run the table with that schedule.

Most Underrated Team – Michigan State Spartans (8-0 SU, 2-6 ATS)

The Spartans didn’t get any respect from the Playoff Committee, ranking in the 7th slot behind Baylor. They might not have the strongest schedule of the Playoff contenders, but their two signature wins over Oregon and Michigan are better than any game Ohio State has played so far. At the time they played the Spartans, Oregon was ranked 7th, and Michigan was ranked 12th. The Buckeyes have yet to face a Top 25 team. TCU is also ranked ahead of Michigan State, without a single win against a ranked team. Spartans fans don’t have to worry though, they were always going to have to run the table to make the playoffs, and if they knock off Ohio State they’ll be a sure bet to be in the Top 4.

Flying Under The Radar – Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Nobody is taking Oklahoma State seriously, but they just dropped 70 points on Texas Tech in Lubbock. That’s a bigger beating than TCU handed the Red Raiders in their game at Lubbock, and more points than Baylor scored versus the Red Raiders in a neutral site game. The Cowboys are better defensively than both TCU and Baylor, and they have home field advantage against TCU this week. They host Baylor two weeks later, and the Bears will have a backup quarterback under center. TCU has lost it’s last three trips to Stillwater, and it’s last win at Oklahoma State came back in 1993, in a game decided by a field goal.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Wings vs Sky	Wings +3½ -110	Premium	88-94	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Dallas. The Wings are still undefeated, and last year they were the only team in the WNBA with a better record on the road than at home. They look good on the road here against a Chicago Sky team that lost three of it's top four scorers from last year. The Sky lost their only home game to a below average Washington Mystics squad, and both their wins have come against inferior opponents in close games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
AFC Bournemouth vs Everton	Everton -180	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Everton. The math is simple for the Toffees, win and you're in. They appeared to be destined for relegation, but after earning points in three of their last four matches they are in the driver's seat here at home on "Survival Sunday". They draw a favorable matchup against a Bournemouth team that has nothing to play for, and has one of the worst goal differentials in away matches in the Premier League. In fact only Southampton ranks worse. GL, Jesse Schule
West Ham United vs Leicester	Leicester -107	Free	1-2	Win	100	Show
This a Free play on Leicester. Leicester needs a win here to avoid relegation, and they also need help. They face a West Ham club that should be resting players here ahead of a much bigger match that will decide if they play in Europe next season. The Hammers play Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final on June 7, and a win will get them into the Europa League next year. That makes this match all the more meaningless for West Ham, and they are just 3-3-12 in away matches in the Premier League this season. GL, Jesse Schule
Nationals vs Royals	Nationals -104	Premium	2-3	Loss	-104	Show
This is a 4* play on WAS. The Nats have won five of their last seven, and they have a favorable matchup in Game 3 in Kansas City. MacKenzie Gore will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts on the road. The Royals hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, who got rocked in his last rehab start at Triple A Omaha. He allowed five runs on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings, but some chalked it up as a success because he also struck out eight. The Royals are 7-21 in their last 28 home games, and they have lost six of their last seven versus left-handers. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Cubs	Cubs -150	Premium	8-5	Loss	-150	Show
This is a 4* play on CHC. The Bad News Bears have lost 10 of their last 13 overall, but if there is a silver lining they are playing at home against a Cincinnati team that has been just as bad. Graham Ashcraft will toe the rubber for the Reds, and he's been just crushed in his last two starts. He allowed 14 runs on 20 hits over 10 innings in losses to the Rockies and Cardinals. The Cubs hand the ball to Drew Smyly, who is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in five home starts. The Reds are 9-24 in their last 33 road games versus a left-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule
Rangers vs Orioles	Orioles -142	Premium	2-3	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on BAL. The Rangers won the first two games of this series in Baltimore, but they have a tough pitching matchup here in Game 3. Cody Bradford will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been torched for six runs on seven hits in five innings in a home loss to Atlanta in his debut. The Orioles hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 1-0 with a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts. The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games versus a left-handed starter, and they are 16-6 in their last 22 games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule

Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 10

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