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Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 10

November 4th, 2015

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – Notre Dame Irish (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)

The College Football Playoff Committee came out with their first Top 10 Ranking this week, and the results were a little shocking. They have the Irish ranked above undefeated BIG12 teams Baylor and TCU in the #5 slot. Notre Dame just barely escaped from Philly with a 24-20 win over Temple on Saturday, in a game that they trailed for most of the fourth quarter. Clemson somehow ended up in the #1 slot, and perhaps that also works in favor of the Irish, who’s only loss was on the road versus the Tigers. That game was nowhere near as close as the 24-22 score would indicate, as the Irish trailed 21-3 heading into the fourth quarter, but rallied to score 19 points. They’ve only played three games on the road so far, and both of their wins were of the “come from behind” variety. They still have two more tough road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford, and it seems highly unlikely that they’ll be able to run the table with that schedule.

Most Underrated Team – Michigan State Spartans (8-0 SU, 2-6 ATS)

The Spartans didn’t get any respect from the Playoff Committee, ranking in the 7th slot behind Baylor. They might not have the strongest schedule of the Playoff contenders, but their two signature wins over Oregon and Michigan are better than any game Ohio State has played so far. At the time they played the Spartans, Oregon was ranked 7th, and Michigan was ranked 12th. The Buckeyes have yet to face a Top 25 team. TCU is also ranked ahead of Michigan State, without a single win against a ranked team. Spartans fans don’t have to worry though, they were always going to have to run the table to make the playoffs, and if they knock off Ohio State they’ll be a sure bet to be in the Top 4.

Flying Under The Radar – Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Nobody is taking Oklahoma State seriously, but they just dropped 70 points on Texas Tech in Lubbock. That’s a bigger beating than TCU handed the Red Raiders in their game at Lubbock, and more points than Baylor scored versus the Red Raiders in a neutral site game. The Cowboys are better defensively than both TCU and Baylor, and they have home field advantage against TCU this week. They host Baylor two weeks later, and the Bears will have a backup quarterback under center. TCU has lost it’s last three trips to Stillwater, and it’s last win at Oklahoma State came back in 1993, in a game decided by a field goal.


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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available