Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 10

Written on November 4th, 2015 by Jesse Schule in
NCAAF

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – Notre Dame Irish (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)

The College Football Playoff Committee came out with their first Top 10 Ranking this week, and the results were a little shocking. They have the Irish ranked above undefeated BIG12 teams Baylor and TCU in the #5 slot. Notre Dame just barely escaped from Philly with a 24-20 win over Temple on Saturday, in a game that they trailed for most of the fourth quarter. Clemson somehow ended up in the #1 slot, and perhaps that also works in favor of the Irish, who’s only loss was on the road versus the Tigers. That game was nowhere near as close as the 24-22 score would indicate, as the Irish trailed 21-3 heading into the fourth quarter, but rallied to score 19 points. They’ve only played three games on the road so far, and both of their wins were of the “come from behind” variety. They still have two more tough road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford, and it seems highly unlikely that they’ll be able to run the table with that schedule.

Most Underrated Team – Michigan State Spartans (8-0 SU, 2-6 ATS)

The Spartans didn’t get any respect from the Playoff Committee, ranking in the 7th slot behind Baylor. They might not have the strongest schedule of the Playoff contenders, but their two signature wins over Oregon and Michigan are better than any game Ohio State has played so far. At the time they played the Spartans, Oregon was ranked 7th, and Michigan was ranked 12th. The Buckeyes have yet to face a Top 25 team. TCU is also ranked ahead of Michigan State, without a single win against a ranked team. Spartans fans don’t have to worry though, they were always going to have to run the table to make the playoffs, and if they knock off Ohio State they’ll be a sure bet to be in the Top 4.

Flying Under The Radar – Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Nobody is taking Oklahoma State seriously, but they just dropped 70 points on Texas Tech in Lubbock. That’s a bigger beating than TCU handed the Red Raiders in their game at Lubbock, and more points than Baylor scored versus the Red Raiders in a neutral site game. The Cowboys are better defensively than both TCU and Baylor, and they have home field advantage against TCU this week. They host Baylor two weeks later, and the Bears will have a backup quarterback under center. TCU has lost it’s last three trips to Stillwater, and it’s last win at Oklahoma State came back in 1993, in a game decided by a field goal.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Orioles vs Angels	Orioles -145	Premium	4-7	Loss	-145	Show
This is a 4* play on BAL. The Orioles come into Game 2 in LA as winners of 7-of-8, and they rank 3rd in the major leagues in scoring with 126 runs scored. Grayson Rodriguez will toe the slab for Baltimore, and he's 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA so far this season. He allowed one run on four hits, striking out nine in six innings in a 13-4 win over LA in his season debut. The Angels hand the ball to Griffin Canning, who was rocked for five runs on seven hits in five innings opposite Rodrriguez on Opening Day. Canning is 0-4 with a 10.53 ERA in five career starts versus the Orioles. GL, Jesse Schule
Pacers vs Bucks	OVER 220½ -110	Top Premium	125-108	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Over. Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1. GL, Jesse Schule

Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 10

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