Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 3
Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.
Most Overrated Team – BYU Cougars (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.
Most Underrated Team – Oklahoma Sooners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Both Baylor and TCU are ranked in the Top 5, but when all is said and done, Oklahoma may still be the best team in the BIG12. The Sooners certainly have the more impressive non-conference resume after upsetting the Vols in a stunning come from behind win at Tennessee. The Sooners have found their man at quarterback, as Baker Mayfield threw for 388 yards and three TDs in his Oklahoma debut. He had a rough start on the road at Tennessee, but threw for 103 yards and three TDs on 11-of-14 passing in the fourth quarter and overtime.
Flying Under The Radar – Northwestern Wildcats (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.
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This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Syracuse Orange. The Notre Dame Irish have been cruising through a rather average schedule, and they are currently ranked #3 overall with their sights set on the College Football Playoffs. Standing in their way are the #13 ranked Syracuse Orange, who have lost two games by an average margin of 5.5 points. Their loss to Clemson by a score of 27-23 is more impressive than most of Notre Dame's wins. This a team that has already proved it can hang with the big boys, last year they handed Clemson it's only regular season loss. Senior quarterback Eric Dungey has been lighting it up with his arm and his legs. He's got a dozen rushing TDs and 690 rushing yards so far this season. The Orange have covered the spread in five straight non conference games, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record. I'll take the points with Syracuse. Take CUSE. GL,
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The Dukes were 16-16 overall last season, and finished near the bottom of the Atlantic 10. They are off to a good start here in 2018, crushing William and Mary in their season opener by a score of 84-70. They will look to keep the ball rolling here in the Gotham Classic, hosting Illinois-Chicago. The Dukes shot 52.5 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from beyond the arc against the Tribe, while the Flames have shot just 43 percent from the field in back to back losses so far. The Dukes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and they were 13-6 at home last season. They have done well in recent games against teams from the Horizon league, covering the spread in six of their last seven such contests. I'll take the home favorite here.
Take DUQ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
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TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
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