Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 3

September 15th, 2015

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – BYU Cougars (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.

Most Underrated Team – Oklahoma Sooners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Both Baylor and TCU are ranked in the Top 5, but when all is said and done, Oklahoma may still be the best team in the BIG12. The Sooners certainly have the more impressive non-conference resume after upsetting the Vols in a stunning come from behind win at Tennessee. The Sooners have found their man at quarterback, as Baker Mayfield threw for 388 yards and three TDs in his Oklahoma debut. He had a rough start on the road at Tennessee, but threw for 103 yards and three TDs on 11-of-14 passing in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Flying Under The Radar – Northwestern Wildcats (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Yankees vs Indians	Yankees -120	Top Premium	10-9	Win	100	Show
This is a 10* play on NYY. The Bronx Bombers crushed the presumptive AL Cy Young winner in Game 1, and they have all the momentum heading into Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka will toe the slab for New York, and he's had a solid September. Tanaka is 3-2 with a 3,62 ERA in his last five starts. The Indians hand the ball to Carolos Carrasco, who had a losing record at home during the regular season. He was 2-3 with a 3.03 ERA in seven starts. Perhaps Carrasco was hurt by a lack of run support, but that has been a theme all year for the Indians. Cleveland's team batting average of .228 is the worst of any team in the playoffs. The Yankees are 11-3 in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite. Take NYY. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Braves	Reds +1½ -170	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Cincinnati +1.5. The Reds are a big underdog in Game 1 at Atlanta, but they have a chance with ace Trevor Bauer on the mound. Bauer (5-4, 1.73 ERA) has allowed three runs and struck out 39 batters in his last four starts. He was 4-1 with a 1.32 ERA in five starts on the road this season. The Braves hand the ball to Max Fried, who has a 7-0 record but has been far from perfect. He's allowed eight runs on 16 hits in his last 16 innings of work. Atlanta has lost seven of their last 10 playoff games at home, and they are 8-20 in their last 28 playoff games. Take CIN. GL, Jesse Schule
Heat vs Lakers	Lakers -189	Premium	98-116	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on the Lakers. So I had the Toronto Raptors winning outright as a big underdog in last year's NBA Finals. If you expected me to come back with the underdog here this season, you will be disappointed. I don't see a lot of similarities between this Heat team, and the 2019 Raptors. Toronto was already a first place team in the East when the acquired NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Coming into the Finals Kawhi had been the best player in the playoffs, and the Warriors had been banged up. The Lakers on the other hand are healthy, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis have both been dominant. The Lakers have won six of the last seven head to head meetings, and four of those six wins came by double digits. I have the Lakers winning Game 1, winning the Series in five games, and LeBron winning Finals MVP. While it's likely Anthony Davis will outscore LeBron, I don't see James being snubbed in the Finals after getting snubbed in the regular season. James is also capable of taking over games with his defense, like he did in the Western Conference Finals when he switched to guard Jamal Murray. GL, Jesse Schule

Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 3

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