Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 4

September 23rd, 2015

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – UCLA Bruins (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS)

The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week.

Most Underrated Team – Oregon Ducks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

The Ducks are ranked outside the Top 10 after losing at Michigan State in Week 2, but they still look like the team to beat in the PAC-12. They host the Utah Utes this Saturday, and they are favored by roughly two TDs. Oregon won 51-27 at Utah last season, and the Utes will be hard pressed to earn a better result on the road this week with their starting quarterback banged up. Looking at the Ducks remaining schedule, they should have an excellent chance to run the table, and could easily get back up into the playoff picture by the end of the season.

Flying Under The Radar – Georgia Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Greyson Lambert had himself a day in the win over South Carolina on Saturday, completing 24-of-25 passes for 330 yards and three TDs. His 96 percent completion percentage set a new NCAA single game record. The Bulldogs have an easy game this week against the Southern Jaguars, before a marquee clash at home with Alabama in two weeks time. Georgia is still outside of the playoff picture in all the polls, but a win at home over Alabama could propel them all the way to the top. If they can get past the Tide, the rest of their schedule looks very manageable.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Yankees vs Indians	Yankees -120	Top Premium	10-9	Win	100	Show
This is a 10* play on NYY. The Bronx Bombers crushed the presumptive AL Cy Young winner in Game 1, and they have all the momentum heading into Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka will toe the slab for New York, and he's had a solid September. Tanaka is 3-2 with a 3,62 ERA in his last five starts. The Indians hand the ball to Carolos Carrasco, who had a losing record at home during the regular season. He was 2-3 with a 3.03 ERA in seven starts. Perhaps Carrasco was hurt by a lack of run support, but that has been a theme all year for the Indians. Cleveland's team batting average of .228 is the worst of any team in the playoffs. The Yankees are 11-3 in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite. Take NYY. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Braves	Reds +1½ -170	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Cincinnati +1.5. The Reds are a big underdog in Game 1 at Atlanta, but they have a chance with ace Trevor Bauer on the mound. Bauer (5-4, 1.73 ERA) has allowed three runs and struck out 39 batters in his last four starts. He was 4-1 with a 1.32 ERA in five starts on the road this season. The Braves hand the ball to Max Fried, who has a 7-0 record but has been far from perfect. He's allowed eight runs on 16 hits in his last 16 innings of work. Atlanta has lost seven of their last 10 playoff games at home, and they are 8-20 in their last 28 playoff games. Take CIN. GL, Jesse Schule
Heat vs Lakers	Lakers -189	Premium	98-116	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on the Lakers. So I had the Toronto Raptors winning outright as a big underdog in last year's NBA Finals. If you expected me to come back with the underdog here this season, you will be disappointed. I don't see a lot of similarities between this Heat team, and the 2019 Raptors. Toronto was already a first place team in the East when the acquired NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Coming into the Finals Kawhi had been the best player in the playoffs, and the Warriors had been banged up. The Lakers on the other hand are healthy, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis have both been dominant. The Lakers have won six of the last seven head to head meetings, and four of those six wins came by double digits. I have the Lakers winning Game 1, winning the Series in five games, and LeBron winning Finals MVP. While it's likely Anthony Davis will outscore LeBron, I don't see James being snubbed in the Finals after getting snubbed in the regular season. James is also capable of taking over games with his defense, like he did in the Western Conference Finals when he switched to guard Jamal Murray. GL, Jesse Schule

Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 4

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