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Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 8

October 21st, 2015

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – Michigan State Spartans (7-0 SU, 1-6 ATS)

The Spartans remain undefeated thanks to a colossal blunder by Michigan’s punter on the final play of a 27-23 win at the Big House on Saturday. As fortunate as that win was, you still have to give Michigan State credit for hanging around and keeping the game close, putting them in position to get lucky. It was the first time this season they covered the spread, and they narrowly escaped disaster in close games versus Purdue and Rutgers. Both signature wins come with an asterisk, as Oregon is no longer ranked, and the win at Michigan has been dubbed “The Big House Blunder”. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Michigan State is a fraud, but I do think that based on their play so far, you have to question weather they could compete with the rest of the teams ranked in the Top 10.

Most Underrated Team – Florida Gators (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS)

The Gators are coming off a loss on the road at Baton Rouge, but that game was a lot closer than most people expected it to be. Losing starting quarterback Will Grier was a big blow, but Treon Harris looked more than capable coming in last week. He threw for 271 yards and a pair touchdowns, keeping the Gators in the game. They have two weeks to recover from that loss, before hosting the banged up Georgia Bulldogs in two weeks time. A win over Georgia would put them way out in front in the SEC East, and likely a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

Flying Under The Radar – Iowa Hawkeyes (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)

While there is a possibility that the Buckeyes, Spartans and Wolverines could finish in a three-way tie at the top of the BIG10 East, the Hawkeyes are the clear favorites in the West. They already have a pair of road wins against ranked opponents, and the rest of their schedule looks pretty manageable. C.J. Beathard has proven to be a far better quarterback than Jake Rudock ever was in his time at Iowa. Beathard has thrown for 1415 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs, while Rudock has thrown for more picks (6) than TDs (5) at Michigan. Three of Iowa’s last five games come at home, and all five come against unranked opponents. If they run the table, and pull off an upset in the BIG10 Championship Game, that should be good enough to get them into the playoffs.


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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available