Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 9
Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.
Most Overrated Team – Houston Cougars (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-7 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games.
Most Underrated Team – Memphis Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Tigers are one of three undefeated teams in the AAC, but unlike Houston, Memphis has actually played a handful of quality opponents. Their most impressive victory came at home against the Ole Miss Rebels by a score of 37-24. The Tigers junior quarterback Paxton Lynch has been shredding opposing defenses, throwing for 2366 yards with 17 TDs and just a single interception so far. Memphis boasts the nation’s #3 ranked scoring offense, averaging 48 points per game. While I don’t consider Temple and Houston legitimate playoff contenders, I think this Memphis team has a shot to run the table, forcing the committee to make a tough decision on an undefeated AAC team with a respectable schedule.
Flying Under The Radar – Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Panthers sit in first place in the ACC Coastal with a 6-1 overall record and a conference mark of 4-0. Their only defeat came by just a three point margin on the road at Iowa, against a Hawkeyes team that remains undefeated at 7-0. The bookmakers don’t appear to be impressed with Pittsburgh’s 6-1 record, as they are listed a three-point dog at home to North Carolina on Thursday night. Both teams are 6-1 overall, and they have played several common opponents with similar results. The one thing that stands out to me though is that Pittsburgh has played five of it’s seven games on the road, while North Carolina has played six of it’s seven games at home.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 6* play on the Blues.
St. Louis won their season opener at Colorado, but they were blown out by a score of 8-0 in their second game against the Avs. They won't like the stink of that embarrassing loss, and that will add a little extra motivation to beat up on an inferior San Jose team. The Sharks are 1-6 in their last seven road games, and they are 17-35 in their last 52 games as an underdog. The Sharks are 3-9 in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest, and they have lost five straight against the Blues.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on Van +1.5.
I had the Canucks in their last game against the Flames, and they lost 3-0. I expect a better effort here tonight. This is what I said prior to the last game: "The Canucks got themselves a veteran goaltender this off-season, and some might consider Braden Holtby an upgrade from Jacob Markstrom. Holtby got the win in the Canucks season opener, stopping 28-of-31 shots against the Oilers. Markstrom was on the losing end of a 4-3 overtime loss at Winnipeg. The Canucks are 8-3 in their last 11 road games, and I like their chances of getting the best of their former netminder."
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Louisville.
Louisville is coming off it's first loss in conference play on the road at Miami, and they are back home to host Florida State on Monday. The Seminoles aren't quite as formidable as they were a year ago when they finished first in the ACC, but they are just a half game back in the conference standings. Louisville is 23-1 in 24 home games since the beginning of last season, and I like their chances of adding to that total. The Seminoles have only played once on the road this season, losing to Clemson. This spread should be 3-4 points higher than it is.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Hawks.
The Minnesota Timbewolves are 3-8 overall, and six of their eight losses have come by double digits. Karl Anthony Towns has only played four games, and they are 2-2 when he plays. He's tested positive for Covid-19 and will not play Monday in Atlanta. The Timberwolves are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games overall, and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six versus the Hawks. Atlanta won it's last home game by a score of 112-94 versus Philly. They should be able to lay a similar beating on a short-handed T-Wolves team.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 6* play on the Wings +1.5.
The Red Wings are obviously a young team in the middle of a rebuild, and it might be a few years before they can call themselves a contender. They have to be happy after splitting their first two games at home versus the Carolina Hurricanes. They host rivals Columbus on Monday afternoon, and six of the last 10 head to head meetings have been decided by just one goal. The Blue Jackets are 0-2 after losing both their games at Nashville. The Blue Jackets are 7-20 in their last 27 overall, and they had the most OT losses in the NHL last season.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on the Winnipeg Jets +1.5.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the favorite to win the North Division, but Winnipeg is still a contender. They have a veteran lineup and a Vezina winning goaltender. The Jets won their season opener in overtime against Calgary. The Jets have won two of their last three versus Toronto, and both of those wins came in games decided by one goal. The Leafs have lost five straight coming off a win, and they are 4-14 in their last 18 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation.The road team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams. \
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 6* play on the Sabres +1.5.
Buffalo is off to an 0-2 start, losing back to back games to the Washington Capitals. The Flyers are off to a 2-0 start, winning back to back games against the Penguins. It's understandable that Philly is a heavy favorite, but I think the Sabres are going to be competitive here. The under is 4-1-1 in the Sabres last six games as an underdog, and they have gone under in four of their last five overall. This should be a close game that could go either way.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Zack Cimini | $860 |
| Tim Michael | $756 |
| Big Al McMordie | $621 |
| Ray Monohan | $534 |
| Matt Fargo | $500 |
| Will Rogers | $451 |
| Stephen Nover | $449 |
| Jesse Schule | $395 |
| Ben Burns | $367 |
| Joseph D'Amico | $340 |
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