Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 9
Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.
Most Overrated Team – Houston Cougars (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-7 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games.
Most Underrated Team – Memphis Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Tigers are one of three undefeated teams in the AAC, but unlike Houston, Memphis has actually played a handful of quality opponents. Their most impressive victory came at home against the Ole Miss Rebels by a score of 37-24. The Tigers junior quarterback Paxton Lynch has been shredding opposing defenses, throwing for 2366 yards with 17 TDs and just a single interception so far. Memphis boasts the nation’s #3 ranked scoring offense, averaging 48 points per game. While I don’t consider Temple and Houston legitimate playoff contenders, I think this Memphis team has a shot to run the table, forcing the committee to make a tough decision on an undefeated AAC team with a respectable schedule.
Flying Under The Radar – Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Panthers sit in first place in the ACC Coastal with a 6-1 overall record and a conference mark of 4-0. Their only defeat came by just a three point margin on the road at Iowa, against a Hawkeyes team that remains undefeated at 7-0. The bookmakers don’t appear to be impressed with Pittsburgh’s 6-1 record, as they are listed a three-point dog at home to North Carolina on Thursday night. Both teams are 6-1 overall, and they have played several common opponents with similar results. The one thing that stands out to me though is that Pittsburgh has played five of it’s seven games on the road, while North Carolina has played six of it’s seven games at home.
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The Eagles offense ranked 28th in the NFL in passing last season, averaging just 207.9 yards per game. They come into 2021 hoping that Jalen Hurts can bring their offense back to life, but that sure seems like a long-shot. I can remember Hurts as the same quarterback that lost his job as the starter for Alabama. Last season he completed just 52% of his passes for 1,061 yards with six TDs and four INTs while appearing in 15 games. He isn't exactly surrounded by an all star receiving corps and the Eagles don't exactly have the most dynamic stable of running backs either. The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated.
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SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
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- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
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