Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 9

Written on October 28th, 2015 by Jesse Schule in
NCAAF

Have you ever noticed that all the major polls look basically the same? Whether it’s USA Today, ESPN or the Associated Press, you won’t see any dramatic differences in where they have teams ranked. When it comes to Power Rankings, professional handicapper Jesse Schule has proven to be ahead of the curve. Since the 2011 football season he’s been going against the grain, and more often than not he’s 2-3 steps ahead of the other guys. His weekly NCAAF Power Rankings are published at Covers.com on Mondays, and every Tuesday he will review the teams that he believes are overrated, underrated, or flying under the radar.

Most Overrated Team – Houston Cougars (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)

The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-7 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games.

Most Underrated Team – Memphis Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)

The Tigers are one of three undefeated teams in the AAC, but unlike Houston, Memphis has actually played a handful of quality opponents. Their most impressive victory came at home against the Ole Miss Rebels by a score of 37-24. The Tigers junior quarterback Paxton Lynch has been shredding opposing defenses, throwing for 2366 yards with 17 TDs and just a single interception so far. Memphis boasts the nation’s #3 ranked scoring offense, averaging 48 points per game. While I don’t consider Temple and Houston legitimate playoff contenders, I think this Memphis team has a shot to run the table, forcing the committee to make a tough decision on an undefeated AAC team with a respectable schedule.

Flying Under The Radar – Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

The Panthers sit in first place in the ACC Coastal with a 6-1 overall record and a conference mark of 4-0. Their only defeat came by just a three point margin on the road at Iowa, against a Hawkeyes team that remains undefeated at 7-0. The bookmakers don’t appear to be impressed with Pittsburgh’s 6-1 record, as they are listed a three-point dog at home to North Carolina on Thursday night. Both teams are 6-1 overall, and they have played several common opponents with similar results. The one thing that stands out to me though is that Pittsburgh has played five of it’s seven games on the road, while North Carolina has played six of it’s seven games at home.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Blue Jays vs Orioles	Orioles +1½ -140	Premium	4-1	Loss	-140	Show
This is a free play on the Orioles. The Blue Jays have clinched a Wild Card spot, and the Orioles have been eliminated. Game 1 in Baltimore won't have any playoff implications, but it's a chance for some players to finish strong and pad their stats at the end of the year. Perhaps nobody has more to gain than Dean Kremer, who has had a solid season for the Orioles and will make his final start. His last home start was a complete game shutout win over Houston. He signed a one year contract with Baltimore for just 700K, and he could be in for a big pay day in the off-season. Jose Berrios will go for the Blue Jays, and he's always been a Jeckyll and Hyde picher (home/away). He's 7-2 with a 4.25 ERA in Toronto, and 4-5 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. The Orioles should be a favorite in this game. GL, Jesse Schule
Rams vs 49ers	Rams +110	Premium	9-24	Loss	-100	Show
This is a 2* play on LAR. Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff made a mistake naming Trey Lance the starter in the offseason, and while they are fortunate they still have Jimmy G, it might take a while for him to get up to speed. He threw for 211 yards with a TD and an INT on 18-of-29 passing in a loss to the Broncos last Sunday. He threw for 232 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 16-of-30 passing in a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last year's playoffs. San Francisco blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. It wasn't the first time that Shanahan blew a double digit lead in the playoffs, he's done it twice in the Super Bowl versus the Chiefs and the Patriots. The Rams should have an edge with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The favorite has failed to cover in seven straight meetings between these two teams, and I think the bookmakers made an error listing San Francisco as the favorite for this game. GL, Jesse Schule

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Will Rogers	$285
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Schule’s NCAAF Weekly Power Rankings Review – Week 9

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