Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

This is a 11* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week’s game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn’t easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league’s bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.

The Saints aren’t exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league’s top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that’s been the case again this year. He’s thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he’s only been picked off four times in those five games.

He’s going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it’s share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they’ve only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule


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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

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- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

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- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

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