Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015
This is a 11* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.
The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week’s game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn’t easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league’s bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.
The Saints aren’t exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league’s top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that’s been the case again this year. He’s thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he’s only been picked off four times in those five games.
He’s going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it’s share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they’ve only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.
The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 5* play on Bayern Munich.
Bayern is still in a class of their own in the Bundesliga, and they will seek a fifth consecutive win over Borrussia Dortmund. They have scored a whopping 67 goals in 23 matches, and no other team in the Bundesliga have scored 50. After a disappointing start, Dortmund is unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. They sit in fifth place in the table, 13 points behind first place Bayern. Jadon Sancho and Giovanni Reyna will not be fit to play versus Bayern, making it an uphill battle for Dortmund.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Louisville.
Virginia has lost three of their last four overall, and back to back games on the road. The Cavs have struggled to score, averaging just 61.6 points per game over their last five overall. This is reminiscent of the Cavs team that was bounced from the NCAA Tournament by UMBC in one of the biggest upsets in history. Louisville has won nine of 10 home games, and they beat the Cavs at home last season by a score of 80-73. The Cardinals are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games, while the Cavs have failed to cover in four of their last five on the road. The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight head to head meetings. I'll take the home dog.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on the Predators.
The Panthers won Game 1 of this two game series in Nashville, but I like the Predators as the underdog in a revenge spot in Game 2. The fact that Game 1 was close comes as no surprise, four of the last five head to head meetings have been decided by one goal. It was also the Panthers fourth consecutive one goal game. The Predators have a winning record at home, and in recent seasons they have one of the league's better home records. Don't be surprised if we see another one goal game here in Nashville.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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| Larry Ness | $729 |
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| Jack Jones | $489 |
| Scott Rickenbach | $470 |
| Jeff Alexander | $394 |
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