Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

December 26th, 2015

This is a 11* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week’s game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn’t easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league’s bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.

The Saints aren’t exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league’s top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that’s been the case again this year. He’s thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he’s only been picked off four times in those five games.

He’s going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it’s share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they’ve only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois -159	Premium	81-82	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies have won four straight home games, and they will host a Central Michigan team that has lost four in a row overall. The Chippewas have lost nine of 11 road games this season, while the Huskies are 9-3 at home. The Chippewas are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, averaging over 80 points per game. They have had real trouble scoring on the road though, scoring less than 70 points per game. The Huskies are allowing just 60 points per game at home. Northern Illinois is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take NIU. GL, Jesse Schule
Oregon vs Arizona	OVER 139½ -110	Top Premium	73-72	Win	100	Show
10*
76ers vs Bucks	Bucks -8½ -106	Premium	98-119	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on the Milwaukee Bucks. After the Sixers rallied at home to beat the Nets, Joel Embiid told reporters that he was the best player in the world. Embiid is delusional, and so are Philly fans if they think this team is going anywhere in the playoffs. The Sixers can't win on the road, and that will mean that they aren't going to have home court advantage in the post-season. They are on the road tonight, facing the best team in the NBA. Philly has won four straight, but their last defeat was a double digit loss here in Wisconsin. The Sixers have failed to cover in four of their last five in Milwaukee, and I see no reason to "buck" that trend here tonight. Take MIL. GL, Jesse Schule
Aston Villa vs Southampton	Southampton -141	Premium	0-2	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Southampton. One of the reasons that Aston Villa is flirting with relegation is due to their shoddy play on defense. They have conceded a Premier League worst 50 goals this season. To be fair, Southampton hasn't been a lot better in that regard, conceding a whopping 48 goals of their own. Villa is coming off a terrible home loss to Tottenham, conceding the game winning goal in injury time. They are just 2-2-9 this season in 13 away matches. Southampton has out-scored Villa a combined 15-6 while going 4-0-1 in the last five head to head matches. Take SAINTS. GL, Jesse Schule
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Sheffield United	UNDER 2½ -145	Premium	1-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Under 2.5. The news that Manchester City will be banned from Champions League play next season has opened the door for some teams to climb up into a Champions League spot. One of those teams is Sheffield United, who currently sit in sixth in the table just one point back of Tottenham. Sheffield has allowed just 24 goals in 26 matches this season, only Liverpool has conceded fewer goals. They will host Brighton, and two of the last three meetings between these teams have finished with a 1-0 score. Brighton is 2-3-8 in 13 away matches, scoring just 14 goals in those games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
Aston Villa vs Southampton	OVER 2¾ -132	Premium	0-2	Loss	-132	Show
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5. One of the reasons that Aston Villa is flirting with relegation is due to their shoddy play on defense. They have conceded a Premier League worst 50 goals this season. To be fair, Southampton hasn't been a lot better in that regard, conceding a whopping 48 goals of their own. Villa is coming off a terrible home loss to Tottenham, conceding the game winning goal in injury time. They are just 2-2-9 this season in 13 away matches. Southampton has out-scored Villa a combined 15-6 while going 4-0-1 in the last five head to head matches. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule

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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

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