Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

December 26th, 2015

This is a 11* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week’s game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn’t easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league’s bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.

The Saints aren’t exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league’s top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that’s been the case again this year. He’s thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he’s only been picked off four times in those five games.

He’s going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it’s share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they’ve only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Nets vs Bucks	Bucks +2½ -109	Premium	96-107	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Bucks. Prior to this series I had said that the Nets seemed to have no interest in playing defense. They proved me wrong by holding the NBA's highest scoring team to fewer than 100 points per game in the first two games of this series. I wouldn't be surprised to see them look a little complacent here in Game 3 in Milwaukee. The Bucks are likely to come out firing on all cylinders, and I expect them to shoot the ball a lot better at home. The Nets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine playoff games as an underdog, and the over is 4-1 in the Nets last five Conference Semifinals games. The Bucks won both home games versus Brooklyn during the regular season, and both of those games went over 240 combined points. GL, Jesse Schule
Marvin Vettori vs Israel Adesanya	OVER 4½ -129	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on Over 2.5. Adesanya will be a big favorite coming off his first loss, but I don't expect this to be an easy fight. Vettori has gone the distance in four of his last five fights, and he should be able to use his wrestling ability to hang in there with Izzy until the later rounds. He's lost four fights in his UFC career, and all four of those losses came by decision. Don't be surprised if this fight goes the distance as well. GL, Jesse Schule
Croatia vs England	England -134	Top Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 10* play on England. The Three Lions come into the Euros hoping to avenge a disappointing loss to Croatia in the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. England has won five straight matches heading into the tournament, and they won their last match versus Croatia by a score of 2-1 back in 2018. Croatia hasn't look good at all in recent matches leading up to the tournament. They are 2-1-2 in their last five matches, with losses to Belgium and Slovenia, and a draw against Armenia. England on their home soil, should be able to get a win here over Croatia team that isn't on top form. GL, Jesse Schule

Service	Profit
Sean Murphy	$1,654
Sean Higgs	$1,234
John Martin	$660
Rob Vinciletti	$658
Marc David	$607
Joseph D'Amico	$574
Hunter Price	$529
Art Aronson	$490
Will Rogers	$460
Tim Michael	$456

Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

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