Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

Written on December 26th, 2015 by Jesse Schule in
NFL

This is a 11* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week’s game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn’t easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league’s bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.

The Saints aren’t exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league’s top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that’s been the case again this year. He’s thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he’s only been picked off four times in those five games.

He’s going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it’s share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they’ve only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Cardinals vs Rockies	Rockies +155	Free	9-5	Loss	-100	Show
This is a free play on Colorado. The Rockies returned home to crush St. Louis by a score of 16-5 in Game 1, and we might expect more of the same in Game 2. Jose Quintana will toe the slab for St. Louis, and he could be in trouble against a Rockies team that crushes lefties. He allowed six runs on seven hits and two walks in five innings in a loss at Coors field earlier this year. The Rockies hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, and he's 4-3 with a 5.55 ERA in 11 home starts. Freeland has been good lately, going 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA in his last four starts. The Rockies are 11-5 in their last 16 home games versus a team with a winning record. GL, Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs Rockies	OVER 11 -110	Premium	9-5	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Over. The Rockies returned home to crush St. Louis by a score of 16-5 in Game 1, and we can expect another slugfest tonight. Jose Quintana will toe the slab for St. Louis, and he could be in trouble against a Rockies team that crushes lefties. He allowed six runs on seven hits and two walks in five innings in a loss at Coors field earlier this year. The Rockies hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, and he's 4-3 with a 5.55 ERA in 11 home starts. The Cardinals are batting a combined .351 over 59 at bats versus Freeland. GL, Jesse Schule
Nationals vs Cubs	Cubs -165	Premium	2-4	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on the Cubs. Chicago has split the first two games of this home series versus Washington, but the Cubs have a favorable matchup in the rubber match. Justin Steele will toe the slab for Chicago, and he's been solid at home. He's posted an ERA of 1.84 over his last four starts. The Nats hand the ball to Josiah Gray, who is 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA in his last four starts. The Nationals are 16-42 in their last 58 games versus a left-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule
Lynx vs Mercury	Mercury +4½ -110	Premium	86-77	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 2* play on Phoenix. The Mercury overcame injuries to win 76-62 at home versus the New York Liberty last week, and they are now 10-5 at home. They host the Minnesota Lynx on Wednesday, and the Lynx are 6-10 on the road. While Leading scorer Skyler Diggins-Smith missed the last game with an illness, she is set to return here against the Lynx. This really does look like a case of the wrong team favored. GL, Jesse Schule

Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

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