Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

December 26th, 2015

This is a 11* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week’s game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn’t easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league’s bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.

The Saints aren’t exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league’s top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that’s been the case again this year. He’s thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he’s only been picked off four times in those five games.

He’s going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it’s share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they’ve only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Ohio vs UL-Lafayette	UNDER 57½ -110	Premium	14-49	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 5* play on Under. I won with the under in the Ragin Cajuns first game of the season at Texas, and here is what I said before kickoff: " Last year the Ragin Cajuns opened the season with a road win over a BIG12 team when they defeated Iowa State in Ames by a score of 31-14. They are returning 10 defensive starters from a unit that was 1st in the Sun Belt versus the pass last year, allowing opponents to average just 170 yards per game." The under is 10-1 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 11 home games, and they have gone under in 17 of their last 22 overall. GL, Jesse Schule
Tigers vs Rays	Tigers +1½ -105	Premium	2-5	Loss	-105	Show
This is a 5* play on the Tigers. Detroit has won five of their last six, and that includes taking 2-of-3 in a home series versus Tampa. I like them as the underdog in Game 1 at Tampa Thursday. Tyler Alexander will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's been pretty solid in his last five starts. The Tigers won three of the last five games he appeared in, but they are 5-0 ATS in those games. The Rays hand the ball to 31 year old reliever Louis Head, who will be used as an opener. The Tigers are 9-4 in their last 13 games versus teams from the AL East. GL, Jesse Schule
Giants vs Washington Football Team	Giants +3½ -119	Premium	29-30	Win	100	Show
This is a 5* play on NYG. The Washington Football Team lost at home to the Chargers in their season opener, and they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for an extended period of time. Despite the fact that backup Taylor Heinicke will come in to start versus the Giants, Washington is still a significant favorite. As well as Heinicke has played in his brief stints starting for Washington, he hasn't actually won any games. The Giants looked pretty bad in a home loss to Denver in Week 1, but there were positives to take away from that game. The Giants swept Washington last year, winning 23-20 at Washington, and 20-19 at home. They have actually won five straight versus Washington, and they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. They have covered in four of their last five at Washington. GL, Jesse Schule

Schule’s NFL Total of the Year – Panthers vs. Saints December 6, 2015

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