Secrets of a Successful Sports Bettor – Don’t Get on the Hype Train!

Our history is filled with colossal mistakes and miscalculations. Remember that at one point in time people thought the earth was flat, Joan of Arc was a witch and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The fact of the matter is that just because everybody believes something to be true, that doesn’t make it so. We can say the same thing about the history of sports. Evander Holyfield was a 25-1 underdog in his first fight against Mike Tyson, Holly Holm was a 9-1 underdog versus Ronda Rousey, and the New England Patriots were a 14 point underdog in Super Bowl XXXVI versus the Rams.

These are just a few examples of overvalued favorites that failed to live up to the hype. Of course Mike Tyson was the most feared heavyweight fighter of all time, Ronda Rousey was voted the best female athlete of all time, and the Patriots had a backup quarterback making just his second career post-season start in the Super Bowl. But that backup quarterback turned out to be Tom Brady, and Tyson was fighting an experienced former champion that went by the nickname “The Real Deal”. While Holyfield was indeed the real deal, Ronda Rousey was not. She made her name fighting inferior opponents at a time when women’s MMA was just an emerging sport.

Everybody loves a winner, and as the wins pile up, the media hype intensifies. It’s important as a bettor to understand that reality often takes a back seat on the hype train. The smart money rarely follows a team on an extended winning streak, and the more bettors are united behind one side, the more likely it is that the value lies with the opposite side. I saw this first hand in the 2019 NBA Finals, when a wounded Warriors team was a consensus favorite against a Toronto Raptors team that had both a better record and home court advantage.

I made three prop bets prior to Game 1 of the 2019 Finals. I bet Toronto +$450 to win without trailing, +$260 on Kawhi Leonard to win MVP, and Toronto +$200 to win two of the first three games. All of these bets were documented at Covers.com. In my career as a professional handicapper, I have made a reputation for exposing soft lines offered on major sporting events such as the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, NHL & MLB Playoffs, and perhaps most impressive is my record betting in the FIFA World Cup of Soccer. The bigger the event, the more likely public money is going to influence the betting line.

Betting against the hype train doesn’t always mean fading the favorite. The public can also fall in love with an underdog, and in such cases the favorite becomes undervalued. This was the case when Conor McGregor fought Floyd Mayweather. The opening line for that fight had Mayweather favored by as high as 10-1, and the public bet that number down as low as 3-1 by the day of the fight. McGregor came into that fight grossly overvalued, and has remained so since. He was a 3-1 favorite in his first fight versus Dustin Poirier, and despite the loss he was roughly a pickem in the rematch.

Warren Buffett says that you should be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. He applies this principal to investing in the stock market and real estate, but the same theory is just as true when you apply it to betting on sports.


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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)

- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available