Secrets of a Successful Sports Bettor – The Early Bird Gets the Worm

Written on June 8th, 2022 by Jesse Schule in
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You should think of the bookmaker like a schoolyard bully. He’s bigger and meaner than you, and you don’t stand a chance in hell of beating him in a fair fight. Rather than pick a fight that you can’t win. you should seek out less formidable opposition. Instead of trying to outfox the bookmaker, your goal should be to do everything you can to be sharper than the other bettors. The bookie is going to get his money, but as long as you are one step ahead of the rest of the bettors, he’ll be taking their money and not yours.

If you look at the typical habits of successful people, very few of them roll out of bed in the afternoon. There have been several studies on the sleep habits of millionaires, and perhaps the most consistent data point is that the majority of them are out of bed before the sun comes up. Getting an early start on the day is always a good habit to get into, and in the business of sports handicapping it’s particularly important to be awake and alert when the bookmakers release the opening lines.

Some sportsbooks will offer overnight lines on select games, and these become available sometime in the afternoon the day before the contest. The opening lines are released each day at roughly 9AM ET, which of course is three hours earlier on the West Coast. Before you get the opening lines, you should have a list of teams you are interested in betting on, and an idea of what you think a fair price would be. You place a bet when you see a significant difference between the price you think is fair, and the price that is offered.

You are looking for a bargain, a team that you think is getting more points than they should be, or a team that should be a bigger favorite. You should be quite certain that the number being offered is going to move significantly in the other direction. This will allow you to win your bet, even when others who have the same side will lose with the same team because they have an inferior line. When it comes to moneyline sports, you won’t increase your winning percentage, but paying less vigorish will in the end have the same effect.

When it comes to betting on football, I like to say that only suckers bet on Sunday. The reason I say that, is that by the time Sunday rolls around your window of opportunity to get the best value has all but disappeared. That is unless you are waiting on a game where you want to fade the public money, and in that case you might just get the best deal right before kickoff. My betting strategy is based on value, and most of the time I am looking for value in comparison to the closing line. Occasionally I am looking for value versus the opening line, for example underdogs that are bet up several points from where they opened.

Some sportsbooks release NFL lines for the coming week on Sunday afternoon before the conclusion of the late afternoon games. This is normally your best chance to catch soft lines before adjustments are made. It often takes a few more days before we see any lines available for college football, but the same principal applies. While getting the best value is perhaps one of the the most important steps in successful sports betting, it’s just one of the tools in my arsenal. If you want to achieve the impossible by beating all the odds, you need to use every trick in the book.

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The Iceman's 9-1 start to the MLB season in 2022 was overshadowed by his PERFECT 10-0 start to the NFL season, and his 22-3 (88%) start with college football. Keep in mind .. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Rays vs Blue Jays	Blue Jays -140	Premium	4-11	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on TOR. Tampa has clinched a playoff spot, and unless they sweep the Jays and Boston sweeps the Orioles they will finish second in the AL East. The Jays on the other hand face a must win game at home as they are in a dog fight for a Wild Card spot. Aaron Civale will toe the slab for Tampa, and he missed his last start due to illness. He has struggled over his last four starts, going 0-1 with a 7.85 ERA. The Jays hand the ball to Yusei Kickuchi, who struck out seven in a win over Tampa in his last start. Toronto's lineup is batting a combined .353 versus Civale. GL, Jesse Schule
Utah vs Oregon State	Oregon State -160	Free	7-21	Win	100	Show
This is a free play on the Beavers. I have bet on Utah three times already this season, cashing my ticket each time. I like the Utes, as the back to back PAC12 champs don't seem to get enough credit. That being said this appears to be a tough spot on the road in one of the more hostile environments the PAC12 has to offer. The Utes lost 42-34 the last time they played at Corvallis (2021). Last year the Beavers won 7-of-8 at home, and the one loss was a close game against USC that they were leading late. Oregon State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite. Utah is banged up with several offensive stars sidelined by injury. They scored just 14 points in a home win over UCLA last week, and that just isn't going to be good enough here on the road. GL, Jesse Schule
Toronto vs Winnipeg	Winnipeg -7 -110	Top Premium	21-31	Win	100	Show
This is a 10* play on WPG. The Argos have already clinched 1st place in the EAST, so they are coming into Friday's game at Winnipeg with a plan to rest their starters. Starting QB Chad Kelly won't play, and it seem pretty clear that Toronto doesn't have any interest in winning this game. It is a big game for Winnipeg, who sit tied for first place with the BC Lions. Winnipeg leads the CFL in scoring, and they rank first scoring defense allowing 21 points per game. Zach Collaros has thrown a CFL best 29 TD passes, and he ranks 1st in the league with a QBR of 115. GL, Jesse Schule

Secrets of a Successful Sports Bettor – The Early Bird Gets the Worm

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