Secrets of a Successful Sports Bettor – The Early Bird Gets the Worm
You should think of the bookmaker like a schoolyard bully. He’s bigger and meaner than you, and you don’t stand a chance in hell of beating him in a fair fight. Rather than pick a fight that you can’t win. you should seek out less formidable opposition. Instead of trying to outfox the bookmaker, your goal should be to do everything you can to be sharper than the other bettors. The bookie is going to get his money, but as long as you are one step ahead of the rest of the bettors, he’ll be taking their money and not yours.
If you look at the typical habits of successful people, very few of them roll out of bed in the afternoon. There have been several studies on the sleep habits of millionaires, and perhaps the most consistent data point is that the majority of them are out of bed before the sun comes up. Getting an early start on the day is always a good habit to get into, and in the business of sports handicapping it’s particularly important to be awake and alert when the bookmakers release the opening lines.
Some sportsbooks will offer overnight lines on select games, and these become available sometime in the afternoon the day before the contest. The opening lines are released each day at roughly 9AM ET, which of course is three hours earlier on the West Coast. Before you get the opening lines, you should have a list of teams you are interested in betting on, and an idea of what you think a fair price would be. You place a bet when you see a significant difference between the price you think is fair, and the price that is offered.
You are looking for a bargain, a team that you think is getting more points than they should be, or a team that should be a bigger favorite. You should be quite certain that the number being offered is going to move significantly in the other direction. This will allow you to win your bet, even when others who have the same side will lose with the same team because they have an inferior line. When it comes to moneyline sports, you won’t increase your winning percentage, but paying less vigorish will in the end have the same effect.
When it comes to betting on football, I like to say that only suckers bet on Sunday. The reason I say that, is that by the time Sunday rolls around your window of opportunity to get the best value has all but disappeared. That is unless you are waiting on a game where you want to fade the public money, and in that case you might just get the best deal right before kickoff. My betting strategy is based on value, and most of the time I am looking for value in comparison to the closing line. Occasionally I am looking for value versus the opening line, for example underdogs that are bet up several points from where they opened.
Some sportsbooks release NFL lines for the coming week on Sunday afternoon before the conclusion of the late afternoon games. This is normally your best chance to catch soft lines before adjustments are made. It often takes a few more days before we see any lines available for college football, but the same principal applies. While getting the best value is perhaps one of the the most important steps in successful sports betting, it’s just one of the tools in my arsenal. If you want to achieve the impossible by beating all the odds, you need to use every trick in the book.
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Jesse Schule
Jesse is ABSOLUTELY ON FIRE in the short term, but it's his long term success that's key. His numbers in the NBA Playoffs over the last 5 yrs: 134-87 +$36,330, and he's 326-237 (58%) +$55K with TOP CBB since 2014!
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SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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|---|---|
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| Dave Price | $925 |
| Bobby Conn | $709 |
| Sal Michaels | $694 |
| R&R Totals | $690 |
| Rob Vinciletti | $647 |
| Juan Carlos Flores | $615 |
| Chip Chirimbes | $572 |
| Doc's Sports | $498 |
| Jim Feist | $416 |
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