Seton Hall vs Kansas Free Pick March 17, 2018 – Jesse Schule
Seton Hall vs Kansas Free Pick March 17, 2018
If you ask people what strategy they employ when betting on the NCAA Tournament, you will probably hear the majority of them talking about taking the underdogs. Shocking upsets are the most common theme at this time of year, and we saw some of that Thursday. Buffalo eliminated Arizona, and Virginia Tech and Miami both were ousted as first round favorites. Chances are, the talk in the office around the water cooler will focus mostly on these games. The reality is that seven teams were favored by double digits Thursday, and all seven of them won. Five of those seven favorites covered. In Friday’s games, #1 overall Virginia went down, and so did #4 seed Wichita State. Once again though, the story you won’t read about is that six of the eight teams favored by double digits won, and four of those covered. So double digit favorites went 13-2 straight up, and 9-6 ATS in the first round of the tournament. In my pre tournament research, I had learned that 1-4 seeds have covered roughly 60 percent of the time in the early rounds in recent seasons. So I can’t say that I am surprised by the fact that double digit favorites are hitting at a 60 percent clip so far. Such anomalies are rare in sports betting, as the bookmakers are quick to make adjustments in order to correct such trends. It seems clear that the shock factor of upsets such as UMBC over Virginia have a serious psychological effect on sports bettors. The betting public is convinced that backing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament is a winning strategy. This consensus opinion among fans likely prevents the bookmakers from making what are normally routine adjustments. Now I bet on a few dogs myself in the first round, including UNC Greensboro and Charleston, who both came very close to winning outright. That being said, I think the real value at this time of the year is on undervalued favorites, and that’s exactly what I think we have here with Seton Hall versus Kansas (in Kansas).
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
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