SMU Mustangs vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Preview October 7, 2016
SMU Mustangs (2-3) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-1) Preview
Spread: Tulsa -17 (5dimes)
Total: 64.5
Kickoff: 8:00 pm ET
Location: Chapman Stadium, Tulsa OK.
Television Broadcast: ESPN
Preview
The Golden Hurricane are asked to cover a big number at home versus SMU, coming off a taxing double-overtime win at Fresno State. They allowed the Bulldogs to score 31 unanswered points in the first half, but stormed all the way back to take a 35-34 lead early in the fourth quarter. Senior quarterback Dane Evans ran for 18 yards on the game winning touchdown in the second overtime. He had a big game, throwing for 273 yards and four touchdowns. While the offense is flying high for the Hurricane, the defense looks suspect. Tulsa ranks 83rd nationally allowing over 30 points per game. The Mustangs are coming off back to back losses, scoring a total of just 23 points in those games. SMU has one of the worst ranked offenses in the country, ranking 115th nationally scoring just over 20 points per game. Tulsa has won three of the last four meetings in this series, but the last three games were all decided by 10 points or less. The underdog has cashed a winning ticket nine times in the last 11 meetings, but that hasn’t discouraged bettors from backing Tulsa as a big home favorite. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis, 6o percent of bettors are backing Tulsa.
Previous Meetings
Trends
- The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus the AAC.
- The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five at Tulsa.
- The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
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This is a free play on Over 2.5.
After Bremen and Heidenheimer played a scoreless draw in the first leg of this relegation/promotion playoff, perhaps we see a bit of recency bias at play in the second leg. The total is taking back plus money betting the over 2.5, which seems like a bargain in a match that could be decided on away goals. While neither team scored in the fist leg, the previous two head to head meetings saw a combined eight goals. Bremen scored six goals the last time they were faced with a must win game, and I very much doubt they will be held off the score sheet in this match.
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