Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds
The Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday, and Atlanta is a five point favorite at most major sportsbooks. The total opened at 59.5, but has since been bet up as high as 61.5. It’s fair to say I have a strong opinion on which way this game is going to go, but I can’t tell you that these lines are anything but sharp.
Bookmakers rarely make mistakes, especially on high profile games like this. The total might look outrageously high, but there’s good reason for that. The Packers come in as winners of eight straight, and they’ve scored an average of more than 32 points in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed a ton of yards/points during that win streak, and the Falcons do have the league’s highest scoring offense.
It appears that the bookmakers have failed to account for all this when putting out the odds for player prop bets. I was shocked when I checked the opening lines for anytime touchdown scorers, and saw that the prices do not seem to reflect the high total. Let’s use Julio Jones as an example. Last week I paid -$150 for Jones (anytime TD), and he caught six passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given that the total for this game is almost 10 points higher, and he faces an inferior Green Bay defense, he should be commanding a far higher price this week. In fact since there are more “projected” touchdowns to go around, all the top players from both teams should be priced much higher than they normally would be.
Here are some notable players worth looking at this week:
Devonta Freeman -$138 (5 TDs last 4 games)
Julio Jones -$138 (2 TDs last 2 games)
Devante Adams +$110 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Randall Cobb +$110 (3 TDs vs Giants)
Ty Montgomery +$115 (2 TDs last week)
Tevin Coleman +$120 (5 TDs last five games)
Mohamed Sanu +$138 (2 TDs in last 2 games)
Jared Cook +$138 (2 TDs last week)
Jordy Nelson +$138 (he might play, if he doesn’t it’s no action)
While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).
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This is and 8* play on [email protected] to go Over the total.
The money is pouring in on Houston as it appears the Yankees are doomed here in the ALCS. This is going to be a tough game for the Yankees to compete in, especially if they get down in the early innings.
James Paxton will toe the slab for the Bronx Bombers, and he hasn't looked like he's 100 percent in the post-season. Paxton has allowed four runs on nine hits (two home runs) and three walks in just seven innings pitched in the playoffs. He was 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA against Houston during the regular season.
The Astros hand the ball to Justin Verlander, who was sharp in Game 2 but had previously been rocked on the road in Tampa. He's got great numbers against the Yankees in his career though.
The Astros are 4-0 in Verlander's last four starts versus the Yankees, and the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in New York.
Take Over.
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This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total.
The Wildcats are 1-4, but they might be a lot better off if they could score any points. Their defense has kept them in a lot of games, but their offense simply hasn't been able to get any points on the board. They are a huge underdog at home versus Ohio State on Friday, but they are coming off their bye week and they have covered the spread in back to back games. They held Wisconsin and Nebraska to a combined 37 points, and both games fell well short of the total. The under is 42-14-1 in Wildcats last 57 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine conference games.
Take Under.
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Jesse Schule
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