Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds

January 19th, 2017

The Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday, and Atlanta is a five point favorite at most major sportsbooks. The total opened at 59.5, but has since been bet up as high as 61.5. It’s fair to say I have a strong opinion on which way this game is going to go, but I can’t tell you that these lines are anything but sharp.

Bookmakers rarely make mistakes, especially on high profile games like this. The total might look outrageously high, but there’s good reason for that. The Packers come in as winners of eight straight, and they’ve scored an average of more than 32 points in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed a ton of yards/points during that win streak, and the Falcons do have the league’s highest scoring offense.

It appears that the bookmakers have failed to account for all this when putting out the odds for player prop bets. I was shocked when I checked the opening lines for anytime touchdown scorers, and saw that the prices do not seem to reflect the high total. Let’s use Julio Jones as an example. Last week I paid -$150 for Jones (anytime TD), and he caught six passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given that the total for this game is almost 10 points higher, and he faces an inferior Green Bay defense, he should be commanding a far higher price this week. In fact since there are more “projected” touchdowns to go around, all the top players from both teams should be priced much higher than they normally would be.

Here are some notable players worth looking at this week:

Devonta Freeman -$138 (5 TDs last 4 games)
Julio Jones -$138 (2 TDs last 2 games)
Devante Adams +$110 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Randall Cobb +$110 (3 TDs vs Giants)
Ty Montgomery +$115 (2 TDs last week)
Tevin Coleman +$120 (5 TDs last five games)
Mohamed Sanu +$138 (2 TDs in last 2 games)
Jared Cook +$138 (2 TDs last week)
Jordy Nelson +$138 (he might play, if he doesn’t it’s no action)

While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Bills vs Titans	Bills -5½ -110	Premium	31-34	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 5* play on Buffalo. The Bills have won five straight, and they come into Tennessee as a sizeable favorite. While some might think this is a let down spot after their win in Kansas City, I see this as a classic revenge game. Buffalo lost 42-16 at Tennessee last season, and they are in an ideal spot to avenge that loss on Monday night. The Titans defense has really struggled, especially against the pass. Josh Allen shredded the Chiefs defense for 315 yards and three TDs, and I expect him to do the same here against the Bills. The Titans will try to turn the game into a shootout, but that's not going to be easy versus the Bills #1 ranked scoring defense. GL, Jesse Schule
Astros vs Red Sox	OVER 9 +102	Premium	3-12	Win	102	Show
This is an 8* play on Over. The first two games of this series went over the total, and with the series shifting to Fenway we could see another slugfest. Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the slab for Boston, and his recent starts don't inspire a lot of confidence. He allowed four runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings in two games in the series versus Tampa. He's 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in two starts versus Houston this season. The Astros hand the ball to Jose Urquidy, who hasn't pitched in over two weeks. Talk about getting thrown in to the fire. The over is 10-1-1 in the Red Sox last 12 League Championship home games. GL, Jesse Schule
Ducks vs Flames	Flames -183	Premium	3-2	Loss	-183	Show
This is a 5* play on Calgary. The Ducks are 1-1 after playing their first two games of rthe season at home, now they head out on the road where they will play Calgary on Monday. Anaheim finished dead last in the West last year, and this is basically the same group of players. The Ducks are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Calgary, and the home team is 59-21 in the last 80 meetings. The price isn't cheap, but this is a good spot to back the home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule

Service	Profit
Art Aronson	$627
Matt Fargo	$592
Scott Rickenbach	$586
Alex Smart	$396
Tim Michael	$330
Ray Monohan	$300
Ricky Tran	$266
Ben Burns	$259
Marc David	$196
Kyle Hunter	$180

Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds

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