Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds
The Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday, and Atlanta is a five point favorite at most major sportsbooks. The total opened at 59.5, but has since been bet up as high as 61.5. It’s fair to say I have a strong opinion on which way this game is going to go, but I can’t tell you that these lines are anything but sharp.
Bookmakers rarely make mistakes, especially on high profile games like this. The total might look outrageously high, but there’s good reason for that. The Packers come in as winners of eight straight, and they’ve scored an average of more than 32 points in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed a ton of yards/points during that win streak, and the Falcons do have the league’s highest scoring offense.
It appears that the bookmakers have failed to account for all this when putting out the odds for player prop bets. I was shocked when I checked the opening lines for anytime touchdown scorers, and saw that the prices do not seem to reflect the high total. Let’s use Julio Jones as an example. Last week I paid -$150 for Jones (anytime TD), and he caught six passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given that the total for this game is almost 10 points higher, and he faces an inferior Green Bay defense, he should be commanding a far higher price this week. In fact since there are more “projected” touchdowns to go around, all the top players from both teams should be priced much higher than they normally would be.
Here are some notable players worth looking at this week:
Devonta Freeman -$138 (5 TDs last 4 games)
Julio Jones -$138 (2 TDs last 2 games)
Devante Adams +$110 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Randall Cobb +$110 (3 TDs vs Giants)
Ty Montgomery +$115 (2 TDs last week)
Tevin Coleman +$120 (5 TDs last five games)
Mohamed Sanu +$138 (2 TDs in last 2 games)
Jared Cook +$138 (2 TDs last week)
Jordy Nelson +$138 (he might play, if he doesn’t it’s no action)
While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).
Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks
Jesse Schule
Prior to the 2017 NBA Finals, Jesse released 6 series pro bets. He cashed ALL 6, going a PERFECT 6-0 with NBA FINALS FUTURES! He followed up in 2018 by going 5-2 with Finals futures, and was PERFECT in 2019 & 2020!
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
All Sports Totals (+5807) 1120-960 L2080 54%
Basketball Picks (+5760) 1341-1110 L2451 55%
NBA Picks (+4916) 534-419 L953 56%
Top NCAA-B Sides (+4761) 286-210 L496 58%
Football Totals (+4605) 271-206 L477 57%
NCAA-F Totals (+4522) 168-112 L280 60%
Soccer Picks (+3572) 262-183 L445 59%
MLB Run Lines (+2810) 418-276 L694 60%
NHL Money Lines (+2141) 153-96 L249 61%
CFL Picks (+1809) 88-59 L147 60%
NFLX Totals (+560) 11-5 L16 69%
NFL Totals (+544) 12-6 L18 67%
Short-Term Subscription Options
Get All The Iceman's plays with All Sports for one day - Only $88.
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
SPECIAL OFFER THIS WEEKEND ONLY!
From Now Until Midnight, Get ALL The Iceman's Premium Picks For The Entire Weekend (Fri-Mon) For ONLY $99. Exclusively
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF...
+$29,340 with All 10* Premium Picks since 1/1/17.
+$55,840 with All 10* Premium Picks since 1/1/16.
+$60,480 with All 10* Premium Picks since 1/1/15.
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
ALL SPORTS FOR 2 WEEKS FOR ALMOST HALF PRICE!
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Long-Term Subscription Options
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 30 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $16.63/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF...
+$17,666 Last 100 Premium Soccer Picks.
+$26,910 Last 188 Premium Soccer Picks.
+$37,280 Last 268 Premium Soccer Picks.
For a LIMITED TIME ONLY... you can get all The Iceman's NBA plays for 31 days for just $199.
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 90 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $6.66/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 180 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $5.55/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
This subscription includes EVERY PREMIUM PICK I release for the next 365 days! If for any reason I don't see value on the day's card and pass, another day will be added to your account.
Join now for only $4.11/day and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 2 picks (1 NHL, 1 MLB) but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
184-128 run in NHL dating back to 08/02/20.
This subscription includes EVERY NHL PREMIUM PICK I release through the end of the Stanley Cup! Join now and start cashing in on more winners!
*This subscription currently includes 1 NHL pick but more may be added during the term of the subscription.
Prior to the 2017 NBA Finals, The Iceman released six series proposition bets. He cashed in ALL SIX, going a PERFECT 6-0 with NBA FINALS FUTURES! He followed up in 2018 by going 5-2 with Finals futures, and then last year he SHOCKED THE WORLD picking the RAPTORS to win outright. He then swept the 2020 Finals with LA -1.5, LA & GM1 and LeBron MVP!
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Alex Smart | $565 |
| Matt Fargo | $514 |
| Kyle Hunter | $390 |
| Marc Lawrence | $303 |
| Tim Michael | $264 |
| Doc's Sports | $179 |
| Joseph D'Amico | $117 |
| John Ryan | $100 |
| Bryan Power | $59 |
FireFan
Recent Articles
