Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds

January 19th, 2017

The Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday, and Atlanta is a five point favorite at most major sportsbooks. The total opened at 59.5, but has since been bet up as high as 61.5. It’s fair to say I have a strong opinion on which way this game is going to go, but I can’t tell you that these lines are anything but sharp.

Bookmakers rarely make mistakes, especially on high profile games like this. The total might look outrageously high, but there’s good reason for that. The Packers come in as winners of eight straight, and they’ve scored an average of more than 32 points in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed a ton of yards/points during that win streak, and the Falcons do have the league’s highest scoring offense.

It appears that the bookmakers have failed to account for all this when putting out the odds for player prop bets. I was shocked when I checked the opening lines for anytime touchdown scorers, and saw that the prices do not seem to reflect the high total. Let’s use Julio Jones as an example. Last week I paid -$150 for Jones (anytime TD), and he caught six passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given that the total for this game is almost 10 points higher, and he faces an inferior Green Bay defense, he should be commanding a far higher price this week. In fact since there are more “projected” touchdowns to go around, all the top players from both teams should be priced much higher than they normally would be.

Here are some notable players worth looking at this week:

Devonta Freeman -$138 (5 TDs last 4 games)
Julio Jones -$138 (2 TDs last 2 games)
Devante Adams +$110 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Randall Cobb +$110 (3 TDs vs Giants)
Ty Montgomery +$115 (2 TDs last week)
Tevin Coleman +$120 (5 TDs last five games)
Mohamed Sanu +$138 (2 TDs in last 2 games)
Jared Cook +$138 (2 TDs last week)
Jordy Nelson +$138 (he might play, if he doesn’t it’s no action)

While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).

Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks

Jesse Schule

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF... +$36,190 All Top Rated Premium Picks Since 1/1/17. +$62,690 All Top Rated Premium Picks Since 1/1/16. +$67,330 All Top Rated Premium Picks Since 1/1/15.

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

Football Picks (+5750) 710-548 L1258 56%

Top All Sports Picks (+5470) 806-637 L1443 56%

Top NCAA-B Sides (+5037) 274-197 L471 58%

Top Basketball Picks (+4949) 413-325 L738 56%

NCAA-F Picks (+4206) 351-263 L614 57%

MLB Run Lines (+3939) 300-187 L487 62%

NBA Totals (+3359) 215-168 L383 56%

NFL Picks (+2604) 81-46 L127 64%

Top NHL Money Lines (+2019) 68-36 L104 65%

Top Soccer Picks (+1416) 49-31 L80 61%

CFL Picks (+1285) 50-32 L82 61%

NFLX Totals (+469) 9-4 L13 69%

Picks (+100) 1-0 L1 100%

Short-Term Subcription Options

1 day All Sports subscription

Get All The Iceman's plays with All Sports for one day - Only $88.

1 Day All Sports

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Raiders vs Cardinals	Cardinals -5 -102	Free	23-21	Loss	-102	Show
This is a Free NFL play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Oakland Raiders are a hot mess, and a week without practice due to the wild fires in Northern California isn't going to help matters. They rank 24th in the NFL in total defense, allowing over 30 points per game. There's no doubt that this organization is tanking, focusing on the future. Arizona might not be going to the playoffs, but they have looked more competitive in recent weeks. Josh Rosen threw for 252 yards and two TDs on 23-of-40 passing in a win over San Francisco in his last home game. Once a fantasy football legend, it's been a quiet season for David Johnson. He's shown signs of returning to his former glory in recent weeks, coming off back to back games with 100+ total yards from scrimmage. The Raiders rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense, so it figures to be a good matchup for Johnson. GL, Jesse Schule
Texas A&M vs Minnesota	UNDER 151½ -110	Premium	64-69	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total. Both these teams have played high scoring games early in the season, and because of that we see an inflated total for tonight's game. The Aggies are far from a run and gun team, despite averaging over 80 points per game so far. The majority of their points came in a 98-83 win over Savannah in their season opener. The have shot just over 22 percent from beyond the arc, and 66 percent from the free throw line. Minnesota scored 104 points against a Nebraska Omaha team that can't even think about playing defense, but then won by a score of 78-69 over Utah in their last game. I expect a similar score here tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
Eagles vs Saints	OVER 56 -103	Top Premium	7-48	Loss	-103	Show
This is a 10* play on [email protected] to go Over the total. The Eagles will need to score plenty of points if they want to hang with the Saints at the Superdome on Sunday. That's even more true given all the injuries in the secondary for Philly. Carson Wentz might have some success against a Saints defense that was lit up for 391 yards by Jared Goff in a 45-35 win in their last home game. The Saints have scored 40+ in three of their four home games this season. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings, and Philly won the last meeting by a score of 39-17. I expect the Eagles to score their share here in a shootout in the BIG EASY! Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule
Panthers vs Lions	Panthers -185	Premium	19-20	Loss	-185	Show
7*
Texans vs Redskins	Texans -133	Premium	23-21	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans. Washington did it with "smoke and mirrors" last week, winning 16-3 at Tampa. The Bucs racked up over 500 total yards but turned the ball over four times and failed to capitalize on several opportunities. Washington is still severely shorthanded, with several injuries on the offensive line. That hurt Adrian Peterson last week, as he was held to 68 yards and no TDs on 19 carries. This doesn't bode well for Washington as they host the Houston Texans who are coming off a bye week. Houston is one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and they should have their way with this banged up Redskins team. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
Vikings vs Bears	Vikings +3 -122	Top Premium	20-25	Loss	-122	Show
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have looked really good this season, coming into this weekend's home game against the Vikings with a 6-3 record, sitting first in the NFC North. The Vikings are hot on their heels, and at 5-3-1 they have navigated a much tougher schedule. Two of those three losses came against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the league (Saints and Rams). Coming off a bye week, Minnesota is as healthy as it has been all year. Dalvin Cook is back, and he had over 100 yards from scrimmage in the win over Detroit. Minnesota has had success on the road, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The most significant number to me is ZERO! That's the number of wins Chicago has versus teams with a winning record this season. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 versus teams with a winning record. Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule

Service	Profit
Doc's Sports	$1,935
Zack Cimini	$736
Will Rogers	$653
Ben Burns	$639
Ray Monohan	$627
Jesse Schule	$614
John Ryan	$508
Art Aronson	$495
Larry Ness	$494
Chip Chirimbes	$341

Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds

Check out the Iceman's Premium Picks

Jesse Schule

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

Short-Term Subcription Options

Long-Term Subcription Options

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

Top Cappers L7 Days

FireFan

Recent Articles