Sportsbooks Are Making A Colossal Blunder With NFC Championship Game Odds
The Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game Sunday, and Atlanta is a five point favorite at most major sportsbooks. The total opened at 59.5, but has since been bet up as high as 61.5. It’s fair to say I have a strong opinion on which way this game is going to go, but I can’t tell you that these lines are anything but sharp.
Bookmakers rarely make mistakes, especially on high profile games like this. The total might look outrageously high, but there’s good reason for that. The Packers come in as winners of eight straight, and they’ve scored an average of more than 32 points in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed a ton of yards/points during that win streak, and the Falcons do have the league’s highest scoring offense.
It appears that the bookmakers have failed to account for all this when putting out the odds for player prop bets. I was shocked when I checked the opening lines for anytime touchdown scorers, and saw that the prices do not seem to reflect the high total. Let’s use Julio Jones as an example. Last week I paid -$150 for Jones (anytime TD), and he caught six passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given that the total for this game is almost 10 points higher, and he faces an inferior Green Bay defense, he should be commanding a far higher price this week. In fact since there are more “projected” touchdowns to go around, all the top players from both teams should be priced much higher than they normally would be.
Here are some notable players worth looking at this week:
Devonta Freeman -$138 (5 TDs last 4 games)
Julio Jones -$138 (2 TDs last 2 games)
Devante Adams +$110 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Randall Cobb +$110 (3 TDs vs Giants)
Ty Montgomery +$115 (2 TDs last week)
Tevin Coleman +$120 (5 TDs last five games)
Mohamed Sanu +$138 (2 TDs in last 2 games)
Jared Cook +$138 (2 TDs last week)
Jordy Nelson +$138 (he might play, if he doesn’t it’s no action)
While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).
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This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go under the total.
The Warriors haven't been as dominant this season as they have been in recent years, and they come into Denver trailing the Nuggets by a half game for top spot in the West. Denver has been successful thanks to their 4th best defense that allows just 105.5 points per game. History tells us that these teams have played strong defense in past meetings. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone under the total. Given that the winner of this game will take over first place in the Western Conference Standings, we could see a game with a playoff atmosphere. The under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 home games versus teams with a winning road record. I think tonight's total looks a little high.
Take Under.
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Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Over 139.5.
The Boilermakers are coming off an 84-80 win over Wisconsin, and high scoring games have been the norm for Purdue this year. They have gone over in six of their last eight overall, and the over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. They have scored 79.4 points per game in their last five overall, but they have also conceded more than 70 points per game during that span. They scored exactly 82 points in each of their last two home games against Rutgers. The over is 6-1 in the Scarlet Knights last seven versus the Big Ten. Purdue won the last meeting 82-75, and I expect a similar score tonight.
Take Over.
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Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total.
The Anaheim Ducks have lost 11 straight overall, and they come into the Motor City as a desperate hockey club. They are still in the hunt, just two points out of a playoff spot, so there's no reason to expect them to give up on the season just yet. Offense has been hard to come by for the Ducks, ranking 30th in the NHL in scoring. Goals have been hard to come by for Detroit as well, and that's especially true in previous meetings with the Ducks. Anaheim is 3-1 in the last four meetings, and Detroit has only scored six goals in those games. Three of the four games went under the total. The under is 8-3-2 in the Ducks last 13 overall, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 road games.
Take Under.
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Jesse Schule
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