Steelers vs. Patriots Betting Preview 01/22/17 – AFC Title Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) vs. New England Patriots (14-2) Betting Preview
Line/Odds: Patriots -6 (5dimes)
Total: 50
Time: 6:40 pm ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro MA.
Television Broadcast: CBS
Betting Preview
Both Pittsburgh and New England have a chance to set the NFL record for the most trips to a Super Bowl when the winner of this game makes their ninth appearance for that game.
The Steelers have won nine straight games despite the fact that Big Ben hasn’t passed for 300 yards in eight straight games or has thrown just 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions over that period. Running back Le’Veon Bell has stepped up and has run for at least 118 yards in seven of his last eight games while scoring six touchdowns. In Pittsburgh’s last two games which were playoff games, he ran for 167 yards against Miami in the Wild Card game and then last week in the Division Playoff ran for 170 yards against the Chiefs. Their defense has also stepped up during their winning streak, averaging just 16.6 points allowed while sacking the opposing quarterback 31 times.
The Patriots are led by quarterback Tom Brady who threw 28 touchdown passes with just two interceptions this season, They will now be appearing in their record setting sixth straight Conference Championship game and they have won eight straight games themselves. Their defense led the league in points allowed (15.6 points a game). Brady has had a lot of success against Pittsburgh as he owns a 9-2 record against them while throwing 19 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last six meetings with the Steelers. Couple that along with the Patriots 16-3 home record in the playoffs, and Pittsburgh will have to be at their best in order to win the game.
The oddsmakers have made New England a six point favorite and set the total at 50. according to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 55% of the public like the Steelers as an underdog while 52% think scoring won’t be a problem and are behind the over.
In their first meeting around Thanksgiving, the Patriots won that game 27-16.
Previous Meetings
10/23/16: Patriots 27 @ Steelers 16
09/10/15: Steelers 21 @ Patriots 28
11/03/13: Steelers 31 @ Patriots 55
Trends
- The underdog has covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings
- The over is 5-0 in the Patriots last five playoff home games
- The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games overall
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Jesse Schule
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 5* play on Toronto +1.5.
The Rays finished first in the AL East, and they will be a big favorite in Game 1 against the Jays.
Matt Shoemaker will toe the slab for the Jays, and the Rays haven't had much success against him. Tampa is batting a combined .157 over 86 at bats in previous meetings.
The Rays hand the ball to Blake Snell, who is still one of the best in the business. He's just 2-2 with a 3,42 ERA in his last five starts.
Tampa has won six of the last 10 head to head meetings, but only two of those six wins came by more than one run.
Take TOR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on the Oakland A's. +1.5.
Both Chicago and Oakland have been impressive this season, but I think home field will be key in Game 1 of this series.
Jesus Luzardo will toe the slab for the A's, and he's been brilliant at home. The 22 year old was 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA in eight appearances at home this season.
The White Sox hand the ball to their ace, and Lucas Giolito has had a fine season. The A's are batting a combined .338 over 48 bats against Giolito in previous meetings.
The Athletics are 8-1 in their last nine games as a home underdog.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on the Astros +1.5.
It's easy to cheer against Houston, branded cheaters after the sign stealing fiasco. The Astros are the underdog in Game 1 at Minnesota with Zack Greinke on the mound, and I just can't count them out. The Astros are 57-20 in their last 77 during game 1 of a series, and they are 40-11 in their last 51 games following an off day. The Twins are 3-23 in their last 26 playoff games, and they have lost 11 straight playoff games at home. "Greinke is as tough as they come," Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli said. "Tremendously talented guy. Can do some really funny things with the baseball and play tricks on people in ways you normally don't see on a major league baseball field."
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Alex Smart | $786 |
| Trev Rogers | $783 |
| Steve Janus | $747 |
| Chip Chirimbes | $546 |
| Doc's Sports | $486 |
| Dave Price | $407 |
| Scott Rickenbach | $392 |
| Ben Burns | $290 |
| Mike Lundin | $243 |
| Marc David | $211 |
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