Steelers vs. Patriots Betting Preview 01/22/17 – AFC Title Game

January 22nd, 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) vs. New England Patriots (14-2) Betting Preview

Line/Odds: Patriots -6 (5dimes)
Total: 50
Time: 6:40 pm ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro MA.
Television Broadcast: CBS

Betting Preview

Both Pittsburgh and New England have a chance to set the NFL record for the most trips to a Super Bowl when the winner of this game makes their ninth appearance for that game.

The Steelers have won nine straight games despite the fact that Big Ben hasn’t passed for 300 yards in eight straight games or has thrown just 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions over that period. Running back Le’Veon Bell has stepped up and has run for at least 118 yards in seven of his last eight games while scoring six touchdowns. In Pittsburgh’s last two games which were playoff games, he ran for 167 yards against Miami in the Wild Card game and then last week in the Division Playoff ran for 170 yards against the Chiefs. Their defense has also stepped up during their winning streak, averaging just 16.6 points allowed while sacking the opposing quarterback 31 times.

The Patriots are led by quarterback Tom Brady who threw 28 touchdown passes with just two interceptions this season, They will now be appearing in their record setting sixth straight Conference Championship game and they have won eight straight games themselves. Their defense led the league in points allowed (15.6 points a game). Brady has had a lot of success against Pittsburgh as he owns a 9-2 record against them while throwing 19 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last six meetings with the Steelers. Couple that along with the Patriots 16-3 home record in the playoffs, and Pittsburgh will have to be at their best in order to win the game.

The oddsmakers have made New England a six point favorite and set the total at 50. according to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 55% of the public like the Steelers as an underdog while 52% think scoring won’t be a problem and are behind the over.

In their first meeting around Thanksgiving, the Patriots won that game 27-16.

Previous Meetings

10/23/16: Patriots 27 @ Steelers 16
09/10/15: Steelers 21 @ Patriots 28
11/03/13: Steelers 31 @ Patriots 55

Trends

The underdog has covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings
The over is 5-0 in the Patriots last five playoff home games
The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games overall

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Raiders vs Cardinals	Cardinals -5 -102	Free	23-21	Loss	-102	Show
This is a Free NFL play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Oakland Raiders are a hot mess, and a week without practice due to the wild fires in Northern California isn't going to help matters. They rank 24th in the NFL in total defense, allowing over 30 points per game. There's no doubt that this organization is tanking, focusing on the future. Arizona might not be going to the playoffs, but they have looked more competitive in recent weeks. Josh Rosen threw for 252 yards and two TDs on 23-of-40 passing in a win over San Francisco in his last home game. Once a fantasy football legend, it's been a quiet season for David Johnson. He's shown signs of returning to his former glory in recent weeks, coming off back to back games with 100+ total yards from scrimmage. The Raiders rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense, so it figures to be a good matchup for Johnson. GL, Jesse Schule
Texas A&M vs Minnesota	UNDER 151½ -110	Premium	64-69	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total. Both these teams have played high scoring games early in the season, and because of that we see an inflated total for tonight's game. The Aggies are far from a run and gun team, despite averaging over 80 points per game so far. The majority of their points came in a 98-83 win over Savannah in their season opener. The have shot just over 22 percent from beyond the arc, and 66 percent from the free throw line. Minnesota scored 104 points against a Nebraska Omaha team that can't even think about playing defense, but then won by a score of 78-69 over Utah in their last game. I expect a similar score here tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
Eagles vs Saints	OVER 56 -103	Top Premium	7-48	Loss	-103	Show
This is a 10* play on [email protected] to go Over the total. The Eagles will need to score plenty of points if they want to hang with the Saints at the Superdome on Sunday. That's even more true given all the injuries in the secondary for Philly. Carson Wentz might have some success against a Saints defense that was lit up for 391 yards by Jared Goff in a 45-35 win in their last home game. The Saints have scored 40+ in three of their four home games this season. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings, and Philly won the last meeting by a score of 39-17. I expect the Eagles to score their share here in a shootout in the BIG EASY! Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule
Panthers vs Lions	Panthers -185	Premium	19-20	Loss	-185	Show
7*
Texans vs Redskins	Texans -133	Premium	23-21	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans. Washington did it with "smoke and mirrors" last week, winning 16-3 at Tampa. The Bucs racked up over 500 total yards but turned the ball over four times and failed to capitalize on several opportunities. Washington is still severely shorthanded, with several injuries on the offensive line. That hurt Adrian Peterson last week, as he was held to 68 yards and no TDs on 19 carries. This doesn't bode well for Washington as they host the Houston Texans who are coming off a bye week. Houston is one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and they should have their way with this banged up Redskins team. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
Vikings vs Bears	Vikings +3 -122	Top Premium	20-25	Loss	-122	Show
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have looked really good this season, coming into this weekend's home game against the Vikings with a 6-3 record, sitting first in the NFC North. The Vikings are hot on their heels, and at 5-3-1 they have navigated a much tougher schedule. Two of those three losses came against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the league (Saints and Rams). Coming off a bye week, Minnesota is as healthy as it has been all year. Dalvin Cook is back, and he had over 100 yards from scrimmage in the win over Detroit. Minnesota has had success on the road, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The most significant number to me is ZERO! That's the number of wins Chicago has versus teams with a winning record this season. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 versus teams with a winning record. Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule

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Steelers vs. Patriots Betting Preview 01/22/17 – AFC Title Game

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