Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 Regular Season Wins Total Preview and Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Under 11.5 +100 (BET365)
Tampa Bay 2022 Betting Odds
- To win Super Bowl: +800 (BET365)
- To win NFC South: -350 (BET365)
- To win 11.5 games: under +100 (BET365)
Not only do the Bucs have the highest projected win total of any team in 2022 (tied with Buffalo), but the number is juiced to the over (-130). After winning the Super Bowl two years ago, they won 13 games during the 2021 season. The LA Rams went into last season with the league’s youngest (average age) roster, and they won the Super Bowl.
The Bucs went into the 2021 season with the league’s oldest roster, and they came up just short in the second round of the playoffs losing to the Rams. Tampa hasn’t gotten any younger this season, particularly on offense.
Brady versus Father Time
Tom Brady is now 44 years old, putting him in uncharted territory for an NFL quarterback. While plenty of money has been lost betting against Brady over the years, it’s not a matter of “if” age catches up with him, but a matter of “when”. History tells us that the deterioration of an aging NFL quarterback can happen in the snap of a finger.
Let us use the career of Brett Favre for example. At the age of 38, Favre had one of his best years ever for the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs in 2009. The following season he was picked off 19 times, throwing for just 2,509 yards and 11 TDs. Peyton Manning was 34 (10 years younger than Brady is now) when he threw for almost 5,000 yards and 39 TDs in 2014. The following season he threw for just over 2,000 yards and nine TDs with 17 picks, retiring after winning the Super Bowl.
Missing Pieces
Tampa’s receiving corps took a hit with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, who was third on the team in receiving yards and second in receiving TDs last year. Antonio Brown only played in seven games in 2021 (all wins), and he caught 42 passes for 545 yards with four TDs.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both studs, but depth could be an issue. Leonard Fournette split the workload with Ronald Jones the last two seasons, but Jones had the better numbers. His departure to Kansas City results in a lack of depth in the backfield with Fournette the only proven commodity.
Tough Schedule
If you use a simple method of calculating last year’s records to determine strength of schedule for the upcoming season, there are only three teams that have a more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. They begin the season with back to back road games at Dallas and New Orleans, before hosting Green Bay and Kansas City. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose at least two of those first four games. This team could struggle to win 11 games with such a challenging schedule.
Projected record: 9-8 Overall
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
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