Texas A&M vs. Alabama Against the Spread Preview 10/22/16
Against the Spread Preview
This matchup will tell us just how good these two undefeated teams really are. Alabama has been destroying their opponents winning six of their seven games by at least 19 points. The Aggies have won four of their six games by at least 11 points and both teams have beaten Arkansas and Tennessee who are both ranked in the top 20.
Alabama will be at home where they have won four games by an average of 37.5 points. The oddsmakers have made the Tide an 18.5 point favorite which is the largest spread against any SEC team they have played. They set the total at 58.5, despite the fact that the last three meetings saw more than 59 combined points.
It looks like bettors are tempted by an undefeated underdog getting all those points. According to Covers.com Consensus and Analysis 62% of the public are backing the Aggies. More than three quarters (76%) of the public feel that a shootout is inevitable and are backing the over. considering the Aggies average over 40 points a game and the Tide average over 45 points a game, it’s easy to see why.
It’s worth noting though that the Aggies have trended under on the road, failing to reach the total in seven straight away from College Station.
Previous Meetings
10/17/15: Alabama 41 @ Texas A&M 23
10/18/14: Texas A&M 0 @ Alabama 59
09/14/13: Alabama 49 @ Texas A&M 42
Trends
The under is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 games
Alabama is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games
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Jesse Schule
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 10-0 start to NFL Season (2022)
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 1-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.5 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to five percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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