The Iceman’s 2016 College Football Preview – SEC EAST

Written on July 31st, 2016 by Jesse Schule in
NCAAF

The SEC Champion has come out of the West for seven straight seasons, and the bookmakers expect that trend to continue in 2016. The SEC EAST is a lot more top heavy than the West, with a steep drop off after the Top 3 (Tennessee, Florida and Georgia). Las Vegas bookmakers have the Vols favored to represent the East in the SEC Championship Game, and that makes plenty of sense when you consider they finished last season with six straight victories.

Lets take a look at all seven SEC East teams, and where they stand heading into the 2016 season:

1. Tennessee Volunteers

Odds: -$123 to win SEC East, +$1,450 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 9-4 Straight Up – 8-5 Against The Spread.

Projection: Tennessee was one of the youngest teams in the country last year, and they return 18 starters from last year’s 9-4 team. They weren’t far off from greatness, with all four of their losses coming in games decided by five points or less. The biggest question mark for the Vols is their passing game, with Josh Dobbs struggling to connect on intermediate and deep passes. Even if Dobbs doesn’t show improvement, they can lean on Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, who might be the best backfield duo in the country. There is little doubt that Tennessee should be the favorite in the East.

2. Georgia Bulldogs

Odds: +$275 to win SEC East, +$6,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 10-3 Straight Up – 6-7 Against The Spread.

Projection: The Bulldogs come into the 2016 season with a new coach, as Kirby Smart replaces Mark Richt after a disappointing 2015 season. Star running back Nick Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury last October in a loss to Tennessee, but the latest reports have Chubb expected to be 100 percent for the season opener versus North Carolina. Even if Chubb hasn’t fully recovered, the Bulldogs will be in good shape with Sony Michel who ran for 1161 yards and eight TDs in just eight games as the starter last year. There is a lot less certainty at the quarterback position, where they hope to see improvement from fifth year senior Greyson Lambert. The defense should be a strength under Smart, who made a name for himself as the defensive coordinator at Alabama. The Bulldogs also have a favorable schedule, facing both Florida and Tennessee at home.

3. Florida Gators

Odds: +$480 to win SEC East, +$6,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 10-4 Straight Up – 8-6 Against The Spread.

Projection: Florida comes into 2016 as the defending SEC East champs, but they closed out last season with three straight losses. While the Gators had a Top 10 defense in 2015, they only averaged 26.5 points per game on offense, ranking 85th nationally. They will have a new quarterback under center this year, and it will be their ninth different starter since Tim Tebow’s final year in 2009. Whoever wins the job will hope that an offensive line that allowed the most sacks in the country last year will show significant improvements. Not only were the Gators out-scored 97-24 in their final three games, they looked terrible in a 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, and a 20-14 OT win at home to FAU. I don’t like Florida’s chances of repeating as SEC East champions.

4. Missouri Tigers

Odds: +$2,700 to win the SEC East. +$150,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 5-7 Straight Up – 3-9 Against the Spread.

Projection: The Tigers lost seven of eight games within the conference a year ago, and their struggles came largely due to poor play from the offensive line. A lack of depth up front could be an issue again in 2016. Missouri averaged just 13.6 points per game in 2015, ranking 128th nationally. Defense should be a strength, with plenty of returning talent from a squad that ranked in the Top 10, allowing just 16.2 points per game. With an unproven quarterback throwing to a mediocre receiving corps behind an offensive line that is being held together by duct tape and rubber bands, it might not matter how well the defense plays.

5. South Carolina Gamecocks

Odds: +$3,000 to win SEC East, +$60,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 3-9 Straight Up – 6-6 Against The Spread.

Projection: The Gamecocks lost their best offensive player (WR Pharoh Cooper) to the NFL draft, and their leading tackler in each of the last three seasons (LB Skai Moore) will miss the entire 2016 season after having off-season neck surgery. South Carolina ranked 99th in the nation in sacks with 20 and 102nd in tackles for a loss with 64 last year. This is a rebuilding year for the Gamecocks, and it will likely take a miracle just to become bowl eligible.

6. Kentucky Wildcats

Odds: +$3,300 to win SEC East, +$200,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 5-7 Straight Up – 3-9 Against The Spread.

Projection: Kentucky has more starters returning on offense than any other team in the SEC, but plenty of work needs to be done on the defensive side of the ball. The Wildcats ranked 70th nationally allowing 27.4 points per game in 2015, and they return just one full time starter from that unit. New co-offensive coordinators Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw come over from Cincinnati, where they had plenty of success with a Bearcats offense that ranked in the Top 10 in passing yards (359.9) and total yards (537.8). It’s probably unrealistic to think that such success can be as easily achieved in the SEC as it was in the AAC.

7. Vanderbilt Commodores

Odds: +$4,000 to win the SEC East, +$250,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 4-8 Straight Up – 7-5 Against The Spread.
Projection: The Commodores took some steps in the right direction last year, and a bowl game isn’t out of the question in 2016. Despite improving on a disastrous 3-9 season in 2014 that saw them go 0-8 in SEC play, they still have a long way to go after winning just two games in conference play last season.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Wings vs Sky	Wings +3½ -110	Premium	88-94	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Dallas. The Wings are still undefeated, and last year they were the only team in the WNBA with a better record on the road than at home. They look good on the road here against a Chicago Sky team that lost three of it's top four scorers from last year. The Sky lost their only home game to a below average Washington Mystics squad, and both their wins have come against inferior opponents in close games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
AFC Bournemouth vs Everton	Everton -180	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Everton. The math is simple for the Toffees, win and you're in. They appeared to be destined for relegation, but after earning points in three of their last four matches they are in the driver's seat here at home on "Survival Sunday". They draw a favorable matchup against a Bournemouth team that has nothing to play for, and has one of the worst goal differentials in away matches in the Premier League. In fact only Southampton ranks worse. GL, Jesse Schule
West Ham United vs Leicester	Leicester -107	Free	1-2	Win	100	Show
This a Free play on Leicester. Leicester needs a win here to avoid relegation, and they also need help. They face a West Ham club that should be resting players here ahead of a much bigger match that will decide if they play in Europe next season. The Hammers play Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final on June 7, and a win will get them into the Europa League next year. That makes this match all the more meaningless for West Ham, and they are just 3-3-12 in away matches in the Premier League this season. GL, Jesse Schule
Nationals vs Royals	Nationals -104	Premium	2-3	Loss	-104	Show
This is a 4* play on WAS. The Nats have won five of their last seven, and they have a favorable matchup in Game 3 in Kansas City. MacKenzie Gore will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts on the road. The Royals hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, who got rocked in his last rehab start at Triple A Omaha. He allowed five runs on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings, but some chalked it up as a success because he also struck out eight. The Royals are 7-21 in their last 28 home games, and they have lost six of their last seven versus left-handers. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Cubs	Cubs -150	Premium	8-5	Loss	-150	Show
This is a 4* play on CHC. The Bad News Bears have lost 10 of their last 13 overall, but if there is a silver lining they are playing at home against a Cincinnati team that has been just as bad. Graham Ashcraft will toe the rubber for the Reds, and he's been just crushed in his last two starts. He allowed 14 runs on 20 hits over 10 innings in losses to the Rockies and Cardinals. The Cubs hand the ball to Drew Smyly, who is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in five home starts. The Reds are 9-24 in their last 33 road games versus a left-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule
Rangers vs Orioles	Orioles -142	Premium	2-3	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on BAL. The Rangers won the first two games of this series in Baltimore, but they have a tough pitching matchup here in Game 3. Cody Bradford will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been torched for six runs on seven hits in five innings in a home loss to Atlanta in his debut. The Orioles hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 1-0 with a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts. The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games versus a left-handed starter, and they are 16-6 in their last 22 games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule

The Iceman’s 2016 College Football Preview – SEC EAST

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