The Iceman’s 2016 College Football Preview – SEC WEST

Written on July 30th, 2016 by Jesse Schule in
NCAAF

There is no denying that the SEC West has been the strongest division in the toughest conference in the country in recent seasons, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change any time soon. Defending champions Alabama come into the 2016 season favored to win their fifth national title in eight years. The LSU Tigers are expected to give them a run for their money, and it’s worth noting that Ole Miss has upset Alabama two years in a row, last year winning at Tuscaloosa. All three teams are projected to be in the Top 10 in the first edition of the 2016 College Football Rankings.

Lets take a look at all seven SEC West teams, and where they stand heading into the 2016 season:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Odds: +$117 to win SEC West, +$775 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 14-1 Straight Up – 8-7 Against The Spread.

Projection: Alabama loses a lot of talent from last year’s championship team, especially on offense. They need to replace a starting quarterback, but their biggest losses come in the backfield with the departure of Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. Several defensive stars have also moved on to the NFL, but nobody does a better job at recruiting new talent than Nick Saban at Alabama. The expectation is that Bo Scarbrough will come in and fill the shoes of Derrick Henry, and another unproven quarterback will come along and do what Jake Coker and A.J. McCarron did before him. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see it all come together, I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on Alabama as the favorite with so much uncertainty. Their schedule is also loaded with tough road games, playing at Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU.

2. LSU Tigers

Odds: +$258 to win SEC West, +$1,275 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 9-3 Straight Up – 6-6 Against The Spread.

Projection: The Tigers return 18 starters on both sides of the ball, and all eyes will be on Heisman frontrunner Leonard Fournette. Fournette led the nation in rushing last November, but after sputtering in the final month of the season, he finished third behind Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. He bounced back with an outstanding performance, running for 212 yards and four TDs in the Texas Bowl in a 56-27 win over Texas Tech. If the Tigers are going to be a contender in 2016, they’ll need returning quarterback Brandon Harris to be better than he was a year ago. While there are no easy games in the SEC West, the Tigers will have the benefit of home field advantage when they play Ole Miss in October, and Alabama in the first week of November. I really don’t see this team winning a National Championship with Brandon Harris at quarterback.

3. Ole Miss Rebels

Odds: +$745 to win SEC West, +$5,200 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 10-3 Straight UP – 8-5 Against The Spread.

Projection: The Rebels are in good shape when it comes to the quarterback position. Chad Kelly returns after leading the SEC in passing yards with 4,042, and TDs with 31. The question is, can they plug the holes on the offensive line and keep him upright. They won’t have much time to figure things out, opening the season with a tough road game at Tallahassee. On a positive note, they face Alabama at home two weeks later, and they’ve won that matchup in each of the last two seasons. If you’re looking for value, the Rebels appear to be a good sleeper pick given their strength at quarterback.

4. Arkansas Razorbacks

Odds: +$1,375 to win SEC West, +$13,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 8-5 Straight Up – 8-5 Against The Spread.

Projection: Brett Beilema was on the hot seat after the Hogs lost four of their first six games in 2015. They went on to win five of their final six, including shocking upsets on the road at Oxford and Baton Rouge. A strong finish has led to optimism heading into 2016, but there are plenty of reasons for concern. They have to replace Brandon Allen, who was the top rated passer in the SEC last year, and finished second in TDs with 30, and third in passing yards with 3,440. They have depth at wide receiver, and should be strong on defense, but I don’t expect this team to pick up where it left off last season.

5. Texas A&M Aggies

Odds: +$1,375 to win SEC West, +$13,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 8-5 Straight up – 5-8 Against The Spread.

Projection: The Aggies have started each of the last two seasons with five straight wins, but have faded down the stretch, finishing 8-5 in 2014 and 2015. Coach Kevin Sumlin’s reputation as an offensive guru took a hit last season, as poor quarterback play resulted in an average of just 28.3 points per game, finishing 71st nationally. Had they scored at least 30 points in every game, they would have had a record of 12-1. They come into the 2016 season stacked on defense, and loaded at wide receiver with Josh Reynolds, Christian Kirk and Ricky Seals-Jones. Veteran transfer Trevor Knight will step in as quarterback, and he was 11-4 as a starter with Oklahoma over the last three seasons. He showed what he was capable of back in the Sugar Bowl in 2014, throwing for 348 yards and four TDs in a 45-31 win over Alabama. This looks like a perfect situation for an experienced quarterback like Knight to thrive, and if he does the Aggies will be a serious contender. If you’re looking for a longshot, the Aggies look like a solid bet.

6. Auburn Tigers

Odds: +$1,375 to win SEC West, +$13,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 7-6 Straight Up – 4-9 Against The Spread.

Projection: Many experts had Auburn finishing first in the SEC last season, but the Tigers didn’t live up to all the hype. There’s not much to be excited about here in 2016, with questions at quarterback, and an unproven corps of inexperienced receivers. They will play their first five games at home, but they open the season against national runner-up Clemson, and then they host Texas A&M and LSU at the end of September. They could potentially lose all three of those games, leaving them with tough road games at Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama.

7. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Odds: +$1,650 to win SEC West, +$45,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)

Record in 2015: 9-4 Straight Up – 8-5 Against The Spread.

Projection: The Bulldogs are going to have to replace Dak Prescott, who finished second among SEC quarterbacks in passing yards. He also ran for 588 yards and 10 touchdowns. They return just one starter from the 2014 season that spent five weeks ranked first in the country. While they won nine games last season, they were 0-4 against Top 25 teams. This looks like the least likely team to emerge as a contender in the SEC West.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Mariners vs Rangers	Rangers -145	Free	3-12	Win	100	Show
This is a free play on TEX. The Rangers crushed the Mariners in Game 2, and that momentum might carry over here in Game 3. Nate Eovaldi will toe the slab for Texas, and he's 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last five starts. Seattle will hand the ball Bryce Miller, who was roughed up by the Yankees in his last start. He allowed eight runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings in the loss. The Rangers are 20-8 in their last 28 home games. GL, Jesse Schule
Wings vs Sun	Wings +8½ -110	Premium	74-80	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on DAL. The Sun are 5-1, but a closer look at their schedule reveals that there might be more to the story. Not one of those five wins came against a team with a winning record. Only one of those five wins came by a margin wide enough to cover the spread here. Dallas has two losses, and the combined margin of defeat in those games is less than the spread for this game. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
Rockies vs Royals	Rockies +1½ -158	Premium	0-2	Loss	-158	Show
This is a 4* play on COL. The Royals are a favorite again today, and they are just 9-17 straight up in their last 26 games. As them to cover a runline and they are 5-21 ATS in those games. The Royals are 6-5 straight up in the last 11 head to head meetings, but only half of those wins came by more than one run. While Kyle Freeland has struggled on the road this season, that's out of character for him. The Royals have five wins in Brady Singer's 11 starts, but only one of those wins came by more than one run. GL, Jesse Schule
Tigers vs White Sox	White Sox -168	Premium	2-6	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on CWS. The Tigers have scored just one run in the first two games of this series, and they are on the verge of being swept. Matthew Boyd will toe the slab for Detroit in Game 3, and he's struggled against the White Sox. Chicago's lineup has hit a combined .336 over 128 at bats versus Boyd. The Sox hand the ball to Michael Kopech, who is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his last five starts. The Tigers are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Chicago. GL, Jesse Schule
Phillies vs Nationals	Nationals +1½ -120	Premium	11-3	Loss	-120	Show
This is a 4* play on Washington. After splitting the first two games of this series, the Nats look good as an underdog in the rubber match Sunday. Trevor Williams will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in five home starts. The Phillies hand the ball to Ranger Saurez, who is 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts. The Nationals lineup is batting .308 over a combined 52 at bats versus Suarez. The Phillies have just three wins by more than one run in their last 19 games. GL, Jesse Schule
Heat vs Nuggets	OVER 214 -110	Premium	111-108	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Over. One of the stories in Game 1 was the Heat attempting an NBA Playoff record low two free throws. This is one of the factors that resulted in such a low score. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Miami Heat lead the playoffs in three-point shooting, hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc. The Nuggets aren't far behind hitting 38.6 percent of their three-point attempts. The Heat come in averaging 112 points per game while Denver has averaged 116 points per game in the playoffs. The Joker has put up incredible numbers, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. He's put up those numbers against the best defenders in the NBA. The Heat rank near the bottom in the NBA in rebounds per game, and have one of the league's smallest starting lineups. I expect Joker to put up video game numbers in this series, and I like the total to go over in Game 1." The total for Game 2 is several points lower than it was in Game 1, and I expect the Heat to get to the free throw line more often, and hit more threes in Game 2. Whatever the Heat do, I can't see them stopping Joker. I''l take the over here. GL, Jesse Schule

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The Iceman’s 2016 College Football Preview – SEC WEST

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