The Iceman’s 2016 College Football Preview – SEC WEST

There is no denying that the SEC West has been the strongest division in the toughest conference in the country in recent seasons, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change any time soon. Defending champions Alabama come into the 2016 season favored to win their fifth national title in eight years. The LSU Tigers are expected to give them a run for their money, and it’s worth noting that Ole Miss has upset Alabama two years in a row, last year winning at Tuscaloosa. All three teams are projected to be in the Top 10 in the first edition of the 2016 College Football Rankings.
Lets take a look at all seven SEC West teams, and where they stand heading into the 2016 season:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Odds: +$117 to win SEC West, +$775 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 14-1 Straight Up – 8-7 Against The Spread.
Projection: Alabama loses a lot of talent from last year’s championship team, especially on offense. They need to replace a starting quarterback, but their biggest losses come in the backfield with the departure of Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. Several defensive stars have also moved on to the NFL, but nobody does a better job at recruiting new talent than Nick Saban at Alabama. The expectation is that Bo Scarbrough will come in and fill the shoes of Derrick Henry, and another unproven quarterback will come along and do what Jake Coker and A.J. McCarron did before him. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see it all come together, I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on Alabama as the favorite with so much uncertainty. Their schedule is also loaded with tough road games, playing at Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU.
2. LSU Tigers
Odds: +$258 to win SEC West, +$1,275 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 9-3 Straight Up – 6-6 Against The Spread.
Projection: The Tigers return 18 starters on both sides of the ball, and all eyes will be on Heisman frontrunner Leonard Fournette. Fournette led the nation in rushing last November, but after sputtering in the final month of the season, he finished third behind Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. He bounced back with an outstanding performance, running for 212 yards and four TDs in the Texas Bowl in a 56-27 win over Texas Tech. If the Tigers are going to be a contender in 2016, they’ll need returning quarterback Brandon Harris to be better than he was a year ago. While there are no easy games in the SEC West, the Tigers will have the benefit of home field advantage when they play Ole Miss in October, and Alabama in the first week of November. I really don’t see this team winning a National Championship with Brandon Harris at quarterback.
3. Ole Miss Rebels
Odds: +$745 to win SEC West, +$5,200 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 10-3 Straight UP – 8-5 Against The Spread.
Projection: The Rebels are in good shape when it comes to the quarterback position. Chad Kelly returns after leading the SEC in passing yards with 4,042, and TDs with 31. The question is, can they plug the holes on the offensive line and keep him upright. They won’t have much time to figure things out, opening the season with a tough road game at Tallahassee. On a positive note, they face Alabama at home two weeks later, and they’ve won that matchup in each of the last two seasons. If you’re looking for value, the Rebels appear to be a good sleeper pick given their strength at quarterback.
4. Arkansas Razorbacks
Odds: +$1,375 to win SEC West, +$13,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 8-5 Straight Up – 8-5 Against The Spread.
Projection: Brett Beilema was on the hot seat after the Hogs lost four of their first six games in 2015. They went on to win five of their final six, including shocking upsets on the road at Oxford and Baton Rouge. A strong finish has led to optimism heading into 2016, but there are plenty of reasons for concern. They have to replace Brandon Allen, who was the top rated passer in the SEC last year, and finished second in TDs with 30, and third in passing yards with 3,440. They have depth at wide receiver, and should be strong on defense, but I don’t expect this team to pick up where it left off last season.
5. Texas A&M Aggies
Odds: +$1,375 to win SEC West, +$13,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 8-5 Straight up – 5-8 Against The Spread.
Projection: The Aggies have started each of the last two seasons with five straight wins, but have faded down the stretch, finishing 8-5 in 2014 and 2015. Coach Kevin Sumlin’s reputation as an offensive guru took a hit last season, as poor quarterback play resulted in an average of just 28.3 points per game, finishing 71st nationally. Had they scored at least 30 points in every game, they would have had a record of 12-1. They come into the 2016 season stacked on defense, and loaded at wide receiver with Josh Reynolds, Christian Kirk and Ricky Seals-Jones. Veteran transfer Trevor Knight will step in as quarterback, and he was 11-4 as a starter with Oklahoma over the last three seasons. He showed what he was capable of back in the Sugar Bowl in 2014, throwing for 348 yards and four TDs in a 45-31 win over Alabama. This looks like a perfect situation for an experienced quarterback like Knight to thrive, and if he does the Aggies will be a serious contender. If you’re looking for a longshot, the Aggies look like a solid bet.
6. Auburn Tigers
Odds: +$1,375 to win SEC West, +$13,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 7-6 Straight Up – 4-9 Against The Spread.
Projection: Many experts had Auburn finishing first in the SEC last season, but the Tigers didn’t live up to all the hype. There’s not much to be excited about here in 2016, with questions at quarterback, and an unproven corps of inexperienced receivers. They will play their first five games at home, but they open the season against national runner-up Clemson, and then they host Texas A&M and LSU at the end of September. They could potentially lose all three of those games, leaving them with tough road games at Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama.
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Odds: +$1,650 to win SEC West, +$45,000 to win National Championship (5dimes)
Record in 2015: 9-4 Straight Up – 8-5 Against The Spread.
Projection: The Bulldogs are going to have to replace Dak Prescott, who finished second among SEC quarterbacks in passing yards. He also ran for 588 yards and 10 touchdowns. They return just one starter from the 2014 season that spent five weeks ranked first in the country. While they won nine games last season, they were 0-4 against Top 25 teams. This looks like the least likely team to emerge as a contender in the SEC West.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 6* play on the Blues.
St. Louis won their season opener at Colorado, but they were blown out by a score of 8-0 in their second game against the Avs. They won't like the stink of that embarrassing loss, and that will add a little extra motivation to beat up on an inferior San Jose team. The Sharks are 1-6 in their last seven road games, and they are 17-35 in their last 52 games as an underdog. The Sharks are 3-9 in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest, and they have lost five straight against the Blues.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Louisville.
Louisville is coming off it's first loss in conference play on the road at Miami, and they are back home to host Florida State on Monday. The Seminoles aren't quite as formidable as they were a year ago when they finished first in the ACC, but they are just a half game back in the conference standings. Louisville is 23-1 in 24 home games since the beginning of last season, and I like their chances of adding to that total. The Seminoles have only played once on the road this season, losing to Clemson. This spread should be 3-4 points higher than it is.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Hawks.
The Minnesota Timbewolves are 3-8 overall, and six of their eight losses have come by double digits. Karl Anthony Towns has only played four games, and they are 2-2 when he plays. He's tested positive for Covid-19 and will not play Monday in Atlanta. The Timberwolves are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games overall, and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six versus the Hawks. Atlanta won it's last home game by a score of 112-94 versus Philly. They should be able to lay a similar beating on a short-handed T-Wolves team.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 6* play on the Wings +1.5.
The Red Wings are obviously a young team in the middle of a rebuild, and it might be a few years before they can call themselves a contender. They have to be happy after splitting their first two games at home versus the Carolina Hurricanes. They host rivals Columbus on Monday afternoon, and six of the last 10 head to head meetings have been decided by just one goal. The Blue Jackets are 0-2 after losing both their games at Nashville. The Blue Jackets are 7-20 in their last 27 overall, and they had the most OT losses in the NHL last season.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 5* play on the Winnipeg Jets +1.5.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are the favorite to win the North Division, but Winnipeg is still a contender. They have a veteran lineup and a Vezina winning goaltender. The Jets won their season opener in overtime against Calgary. The Jets have won two of their last three versus Toronto, and both of those wins came in games decided by one goal. The Leafs have lost five straight coming off a win, and they are 4-14 in their last 18 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation.The road team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams. \
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 6* play on the Sabres +1.5.
Buffalo is off to an 0-2 start, losing back to back games to the Washington Capitals. The Flyers are off to a 2-0 start, winning back to back games against the Penguins. It's understandable that Philly is a heavy favorite, but I think the Sabres are going to be competitive here. The under is 4-1-1 in the Sabres last six games as an underdog, and they have gone under in four of their last five overall. This should be a close game that could go either way.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available