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“THE SHOCKING TRUTH” What You Probably Don’t Know About Betting The Point Spread.

January 13th, 2016

Ladies and gentleman, I have a confession to make. Yes it’s true, when it comes to sports handicapping do’s and dont’s, I break every rule in the book. I play parlays, teasers, propositions and futures. I bet on pre-season NFL games, the MLB All Star Game, and I won’t even rule out wagering on the next winner of Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. I’ll bet on any game, at any time, as long as I feel the odds are in my favor.

When it comes to betting on traditional point spread sports (football and basketball), most people believe that it’s a cardinal sin to bet the moneyline. These same people suffer bad beats on a weekly basis, losing in some cases by a half point with a team favored by less than three points. They would have had the option to pay just a fraction more to bet these teams on the moneyline, but felt that it wouldn’t be very “sharp”.

Let me tell you, there’s nothing sharp about losing games by a half a point. There’s nothing sharp about taking a push in a football game when it’s decided by a field goal. You’re probably thinking to yourself… “sure.. but eventually the vigorish is going to catch up with you”.

Keep in mind that’s the nature of gambling, the vigorish almost always catches up with you. You’re still paying vigorish when betting against the spread, which is in most cases a 50/50 shot. You likely wouldn’t bat an eyelash if you were asked to pay -140 in a baseball game, so why would you be so afraid to pay that same vigorish in a football or basketball game?

I’m not saying that it’s always best to play the moneyline, I’m just saying that it’s foolish to rule it out as an option. You have to look at the price, and make a judgement call. I’ve been picking my spots pretty well since turning pro in 2011. My career record with moneyline bets on football and basketball is 375-202 for a profit of +$30,903 (as of January 2016). Perhaps one of the best examples of how effective this strategy can be, would be my 21-6 record with last year’s NCAA Tournament. More than half of those plays were moneyline wagers. These records are documented at Covers.com.


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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available